{
  "schema": "olmoearth-nepal-live-twin/v2",
  "generated_at": "2026-09-04T01:14:22Z",
  "event": {
    "name": "2026 Rasuwa–Bhote Koshi flash flood",
    "occurred_at": "2026-08-26T02:52:10Z",
    "cause_status": "An ice–rock avalanche, roughly 1 km² of rock-glacier material detached from a north-facing slope near the Lhende river some 20 km upstream of Rasuwagadhi, entrained proglacial sediment and temporarily dammed the river before releasing. This was not a glacial lake outburst flood, although much early coverage described it as one. The mass movement itself produced a seismic signal above M5 near Langtang/Lirung; the earthquake was a consequence of the collapse, not its trigger. Source: Government of Nepal NDRRMA Rasuwa Flood Situation Report #01, 1 Sep 2026 09:00, and the USGS landslide-hazards event page (M5.2 equivalent, ~100 km runout, marked preliminary).",
    "evidence_status": "The contract-correct 27-window OLMoEarth screening is complete. Event change is below the single matched-location ordinary transition in almost every token; the result prioritizes review but does not establish damage or a calibrated anomaly.",
    "official_sources": {
      "ndrrma_sitrep_01": "https://ndrrma.gov.np/mediafiles/rasuwa/Rasuwa_Flood_SitRep_Temp_ENG_01_01092026.pdf",
      "usgs_event_page": "https://www.usgs.gov/programs/landslide-hazards/science/2026-nepal-debris-avalanche-and-flash-flood",
      "copernicus_ems": "https://mapping.emergency.copernicus.eu/activations/EMSR927/",
      "note": "Casualty figures in circulation are wildly inconsistent; quote NDRRMA SitRep #01 with its timestamp or nothing. This site does not publish a toll."
    }
  },
  "incident_updates": [
    {
      "occurred_at_utc": "2026-08-26T02:52:10Z",
      "status": "primary_event",
      "relation": "same_event_sequence",
      "title": "Langtang Lirung rock–ice collapse",
      "summary": "USGS reclassified the initial earthquake-like signal as an M5.2-equivalent landslide/glacial-collapse signal at zero depth; the source is on the Nepal side of Langtang Lirung.",
      "source": "USGS Landslide Hazards Program",
      "source_url": "https://www.usgs.gov/programs/landslide-hazards/science/2026-nepal-debris-avalanche-and-flash-flood"
    },
    {
      "occurred_at_utc": "2026-08-26T05:52:00Z",
      "status": "secondary_signal",
      "relation": "same_day_signal_not_new_27_aug_event",
      "title": "Second seismic landslide signal",
      "summary": "A second M4.2-equivalent signal followed roughly three hours later on 26 Aug. It is not evidence of a separate 27 Aug Tibet landslide.",
      "source": "USGS Landslide Hazards Program",
      "source_url": "https://www.usgs.gov/programs/landslide-hazards/science/2026-nepal-debris-avalanche-and-flash-flood"
    },
    {
      "occurred_at_utc": "2026-08-27T05:59:00Z",
      "status": "secondary_hazard_reported",
      "relation": "aftermath_of_26_aug_event",
      "title": "Debris-dammed lake reported",
      "summary": "Authorities reported a new upstream barrier lake created in the aftermath of the collapse; its exact public coordinates remained unresolved.",
      "source": "NDRRMA / AP",
      "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/nepal-lake-china-flood-tibet-climate-5086eb25e29b23019632f7817739f807"
    },
    {
      "occurred_at_utc": "2026-08-28T12:00:00Z",
      "status": "monitoring_continues",
      "relation": "aftermath_of_26_aug_event",
      "title": "Barrier lake draining",
      "summary": "Chinese authorities reported the lake was draining and its level had fallen, while monitoring for secondary hazards continued.",
      "source": "State Council of the People's Republic of China",
      "source_url": "https://english.www.gov.cn/news/202608/28/content_WS6a91259dc6d00ca5f9a0cd54.html"
    }
  ],
  "points": [
    {
      "id": "E",
      "display_label": "SOURCE ESTIMATE",
      "map_label": "E · SOURCE",
      "stage": 1,
      "marker_color": "#ff4d6d",
      "in_event_chain": true,
      "name": "Langtang Lirung collapse source",
      "coordinates": [
        85.5194,
        28.2765
      ],
      "role": "source_provisional",
      "place": "North flank of Langtang Lirung, Rasuwa, Nepal (satellite/seismic estimate)",
      "source": "USGS + China Geological Survey + satellite interpretation",
      "source_url": "https://www.usgs.gov/programs/landslide-hazards/science/2026-nepal-debris-avalanche-and-flash-flood",
      "evidence_level": "source_estimate_not_release_polygon",
      "story": "The rock–ice collapse began on the Nepal side of Langtang Lirung. This red marker is the best public source-search estimate—not a surveyed release polygon. It is the event origin; A and B are downstream impact/checkpoint windows. Update 2026-09-08: UNOSAT has since mapped the detachment zone from Landsat-9 (1.955 km², centroid 85.5213, 28.2891). This provisional anchor sits 0.63 km from that polygon's edge — close, but the polygon is the better object and it is what the radar ranking is now scored against (M94). Turn on OFFICIAL to see it.",
      "story_ko": "붕괴는 네팔 영내 랑탕 리룽에서 시작됐다. 빨간 점은 공개된 자료로 추정한 발원 지점으로, 현장에서 실측해 확정하지는 않았다. 여기서 시작된 흐름이 아래로 내려가 A와 B에 닿았다.",
      "distance_from_a_km": 13.84,
      "nearest_window": "v050",
      "nearest_window_km": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "D",
      "display_label": "SECONDARY HAZARD",
      "map_label": "D · LAKE SEARCH",
      "stage": 2,
      "marker_color": "#9b7bff",
      "in_event_chain": true,
      "name": "Barrier lake (reported)",
      "coordinates": [
        85.48,
        28.285
      ],
      "role": "upstream_hazard_provisional",
      "place": "Lhende Khola upstream corridor, Gyirong County, Tibet (provisional)",
      "source": "NDRRMA report + AP and Chinese government updates; exact coordinates unpublished",
      "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/nepal-lake-china-flood-tibet-climate-5086eb25e29b23019632f7817739f807",
      "evidence_level": "reported_hazard_position_illustrative",
      "story": "A reported debris-dammed lake formed during the aftermath. Its public footprint is unresolved, so this purple marker is an approximate search zone—not a second collapse origin or a simulated lake boundary. A model-free search of the ±5 km zone found the 27 Aug optical scene 85% cloud, so new water cannot be confirmed; same-orbit Sentinel-1 (23 Jul·4 Aug·16 Aug median vs 28 Aug) shows ≥3 dB backscatter drops clustered in the Lhende valley south-west of the source (largest 0.38 km² at 85.507E 28.251N). Radar alone cannot tell standing water from wet debris, so these are search targets, not a lake outline. Update 2026-09-08: UNOSAT mapped the actual impounded lakes on Cartosat-3 on 28 August (two polygons, 0.314 km² total). This reported point is 2.94 km from them, so treat the point as hearsay and the polygons as the record. Turn on OFFICIAL to see them.",
      "story_ko": "흘러내린 토사와 돌에 물길이 막히면서 호수가 생겼다는 보고가 뒤따랐다. 공개된 위치 자료가 없어 보라색 점은 대략적인 수색 범위로 볼 수 있다.",
      "distance_from_a_km": 10.01,
      "nearest_window": "v047",
      "nearest_window_km": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "A",
      "display_label": "IMPACT WINDOW",
      "map_label": "A · IMPACT",
      "stage": 3,
      "marker_color": "#ff8a3d",
      "in_event_chain": true,
      "name": "Rasuwagadhi impact AOI",
      "coordinates": [
        85.3780644,
        28.2786794
      ],
      "role": "impact_focus",
      "place": "Pasang Lhamu Highway, Rasuwagadhi, Rasuwa, Nepal",
      "source": "user coordinate + OSM Nominatim reverse lookup; USGS event assessment",
      "source_url": "https://www.usgs.gov/programs/landslide-hazards/science/2026-nepal-debris-avalanche-and-flash-flood",
      "evidence_level": "verified_aoi_reported_impact_corridor",
      "story": "The principal before/after inspection window at the Nepal–China crossing. A is not the collapse origin: it is where the upstream cascade reached infrastructure and where the current satellite time series is centered.",
      "story_ko": "네팔과 중국 국경 지역을 사건 전후로 비교한 구역이다. 상류에서 시작된 산사태와 홍수가 기반시설에 닿은 지점으로, 이번 관측에서 피해가 가장 큰 곳으로 보인다.",
      "distance_from_a_km": 0,
      "nearest_window": "v000",
      "nearest_window_km": 0.1
    },
    {
      "id": "B",
      "display_label": "BORDER CHECKPOINT",
      "map_label": "B · BORDER",
      "stage": 4,
      "marker_color": "#ffd166",
      "in_event_chain": true,
      "name": "Gyirong border checkpoint",
      "coordinates": [
        85.3763336,
        28.2828546
      ],
      "role": "border_checkpoint",
      "place": "G216, Gyirong Town, Tibet, China",
      "source": "user coordinate + OSM Nominatim reverse lookup; USGS event assessment",
      "source_url": "https://www.usgs.gov/programs/landslide-hazards/science/2026-nepal-debris-avalanche-and-flash-flood",
      "evidence_level": "verified_coordinate_reported_impact_corridor",
      "story": "The cross-border checkpoint beside the impact AOI. It anchors human-exposure review without treating every bright or dark satellite pixel as confirmed infrastructure damage.",
      "story_ko": "피해 관찰 구역 바로 옆에 있는 국경 검문소다. 사진에서 밝거나 어둡게 나온 부분을 곧바로 피해라고 읽는 대신, 사람과 시설이 얼마나 노출됐는지 가늠하는 기준점으로 삼았다.",
      "distance_from_a_km": 0.49,
      "nearest_window": "v000",
      "nearest_window_km": 0.5
    },
    {
      "id": "F",
      "display_label": "DOWNSTREAM OBSERVATION",
      "map_label": "F · BIDUR",
      "stage": 5,
      "marker_color": "#4da3ff",
      "in_event_chain": true,
      "name": "Trishuli Bazar / Bidur reach",
      "coordinates": [
        85.1357,
        27.9162
      ],
      "role": "downstream_impact",
      "place": "Trishuli Bazar reach, Bidur, Nuwakot, Nepal",
      "source": "USGS public event map; OSM river reach",
      "source_url": "https://www.usgs.gov/media/images/2026-nepal-debris-avalanche-and-flash-flood-map",
      "evidence_level": "downstream_inspection_anchor",
      "story": "A real downstream Sentinel-2 before/after window on MGRS tile 45RUL. The pair closes the visual chain from source to river response; it is observation evidence, not a damage label. Bidur is now included in the separate contract-correct 27-window OLMo screen.",
      "story_ko": "하류를 찍은 센티넬-2 사진을 사건 전후로 비교한 구역이다. 발원지부터 하천의 변화까지 하나로 이어 볼 수 있게 해준다.",
      "distance_from_a_km": 46.79,
      "nearest_window": "v029",
      "nearest_window_km": 0.5
    },
    {
      "id": "G",
      "display_label": "CURRENT TRACE END",
      "map_label": "G · GALCHHI",
      "stage": 6,
      "marker_color": "#d9363e",
      "in_event_chain": true,
      "name": "Galchhi reach-search endpoint",
      "coordinates": [
        84.9883085,
        27.805496
      ],
      "role": "reported_reach_search_endpoint",
      "place": "Trishuli corridor near Galchhi, Dhading, Nepal",
      "source": "USGS preliminary ~100 km travel assessment + OSM river trace",
      "source_url": "https://www.usgs.gov/programs/landslide-hazards/science/2026-nepal-debris-avalanche-and-flash-flood",
      "evidence_level": "current_trace_endpoint_not_confirmed_event_terminus",
      "story": "The mapped inspection corridor currently ends here, 73.7 river-km below Rasuwagadhi. USGS reports nearly 100 km of total travel from the source, but has not published a final terminal deposit polygon. G is the end of this trace—not proof that the flood or debris stopped here. In the AI screen the signal fades toward G: 6.7% of 40 m cells flagged in the Galchhi window against 25% at Dalphedi, and 3–4% two windows upstream — close to the 6.2% of the no-event control under the same scan threshold. But the 27 Aug image here is hazy, so 'little change' is a weak reading, not evidence that nothing happened.",
      "story_ko": "지도에 그린 추적선은 라수와가디에서 하천을 따라 73.7km 내려온 이 지점에서 멈춘다. 미국 지질조사국은 발원지부터 약 100km를 흘러갔다고 잠정 보고했지만, 토사가 최종적으로 어디에 쌓였는지는 아직 공개하지 않았다. 실제 흐름은 이 지점보다 더 내려갔을 가능성이 크다.",
      "distance_from_a_km": 65.05,
      "nearest_window": "v040",
      "nearest_window_km": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "C",
      "name": "Control window · no event (Tadi Khola)",
      "display_label": "NEGATIVE CONTROL",
      "map_label": "C · CONTROL",
      "stage": 99,
      "marker_color": "#9aa3a0",
      "in_event_chain": false,
      "coordinates": [
        85.29,
        27.93
      ],
      "role": "distant_reference",
      "place": "Tadi Khola valley, Nuwakot (east of the corridor), Nepal",
      "source": "control window chosen by 27 Aug observability among 4 candidates (Melamchi, Tadi, Ankhu, Rishing)",
      "control_window": "x001",
      "control_stats": {
        "observable_0827": 0.84,
        "delta_event_mean": 0.1287,
        "delta_placebo_mean": 0.1245,
        "candidate_token_frac_scan_threshold": 0.062,
        "candidate_token_frac_pooled3": 0.023,
        "zero_fill_fraction": 0.348,
        "correction_2026_09_02": "34.8% of this window lies outside the Sentinel-2 scene (zero-filled, Δ≈0.045); fractions are now computed over in-scene tokens only (n=1,989). Earlier 3.6%/1.3% were diluted."
      },
      "story": "A deliberately quiet valley ~20 km east of the flood corridor with no reported event. On 27 Aug it is 84% cloud-free, and the AI change score equals its ordinary fortnight (0.129 vs 0.125; 6.2% candidate tokens under the corridor scan threshold, 2.3% under the pooled three-pair threshold, vs 25% / 13.3% at the top corridor window). This is what 'no change' looks like under the same recipe. Correction 2026-09-02: 35% of this window falls outside the satellite scene and was zero-filled; the fractions are computed over in-scene tokens only (earlier 3.6% / 1.3% were diluted by the empty area).",
      "distance_from_a_km": 39.72,
      "nearest_window": null,
      "nearest_window_km": 11.8
    }
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        256
      ],
      "crs": "EPSG:32645"
    },
    {
      "id": "s1-2026-08-28",
      "sensor": "Sentinel-1 RTC VV/VH",
      "acquired_at": "2026-08-28T12:21:41Z",
      "state": "live_ready",
      "image": "/data/scenes/s1-2026-08-28.png",
      "coordinates": [
        [
          85.3647035979672,
          28.287669004148757
        ],
        [
          85.39114669468483,
          28.287669004148757
        ],
        [
          85.39114669468483,
          28.264259473078294
        ],
        [
          85.3647035979672,
          28.264259473078294
        ]
      ],
      "source_sha256": "063a0acd39575aaee3c736cf409bc9077b8ad07494742257ebb478d4f262729a",
      "shape": [
        2,
        256,
        256
      ],
      "crs": "EPSG:32645"
    }
  ],
  "scheduled_scenes": [
    {
      "id": "s2c_20260829",
      "sensor": "Sentinel-2C L2A",
      "acquired_at": "2026-08-29T04:47:23Z",
      "state": "published",
      "detail": "published (369 min latency) · 83% cloud — not usable as a new post-event optical baseline",
      "evidence_uri": "artifacts/external_data/nepal_olmo_live_v1/catalog/20260831T041914Z/acquisition_status.json"
    },
    {
      "id": "s1d_20260831",
      "sensor": "Sentinel-1D IW GRD",
      "acquired_at": "2026-08-31T00:07:34Z",
      "state": "analysed_partial_swath",
      "detail": "published 128 min after acquisition; swath covers the source but not all five sealed anchors, so it was analysed as the separate 56-window radar scan (M92) instead of the sealed contract",
      "evidence_uri": "artifacts/source_radar_scan/report.json"
    },
    {
      "id": "s2a_20260831",
      "sensor": "Sentinel-2A L2A",
      "acquired_at": "2026-08-31T04:52:38Z",
      "state": "published",
      "detail": "published · 89% cloud — the source region stayed optically blocked, which is why the radar scan was run",
      "evidence_uri": null
    },
    {
      "id": "s2c_20260901",
      "sensor": "Sentinel-2C L2A",
      "acquired_at": "2026-09-01T04:57:01Z",
      "state": "catalog_published_cloudy",
      "cloud_cover_pct": 87.9,
      "note": "R119, same relative orbit as the 27 Aug post-event scene, but 87.9% cloud — unreadable.",
      "catalog_snapshot": "20260908T030208Z"
    },
    {
      "id": "s2b_20260903",
      "sensor": "Sentinel-2B L2A",
      "acquired_at": "2026-09-03T04:46:59Z",
      "state": "catalog_published_cloudy",
      "cloud_cover_pct": 69.5,
      "note": "The least cloudy post-event optical scene so far at 69.5%, and still not readable for this corridor.",
      "catalog_snapshot": "20260908T030208Z"
    },
    {
      "id": "s1d_20260905",
      "sensor": "Sentinel-1D IW GRD",
      "acquired_at": "2026-09-05T00:18:44Z",
      "state": "analysed_independent_orbit",
      "note": "Relative orbit 19 descending — a track independent of the 121 series. Completes a 12-day pre-event series (07-07 ... 08-24) and is the target of the M93 replication.",
      "catalog_snapshot": "20260908T030208Z"
    },
    {
      "id": "s2b_20260906",
      "sensor": "Sentinel-2B L2A",
      "acquired_at": "2026-09-06T04:56:59Z",
      "state": "catalog_published_cloudy",
      "cloud_cover_pct": 77.9,
      "note": "R119 again, 77.9% cloud. Eleven days after the event no optical pass has been readable.",
      "catalog_snapshot": "20260908T030208Z"
    }
  ],
  "live_observation": {
    "sensor": "Sentinel-1D IW GRD",
    "acquired_at": "2026-08-28T12:21:41.762029Z",
    "catalog_status": "published",
    "product_name": "S1D_IW_GRDH_1SDV_20260828T122141_20260828T122206_004326_007FA4_01B4.SAFE",
    "product_id": "9cb3c885-cfb8-40cc-a44a-8673e772c794",
    "publication_utc": "2026-08-28T15:11:15.229392Z",
    "cloud_cover_tile_pct": null,
    "online": true,
    "relative_orbit": 85,
    "coverage_status": "operational_anchors_covered",
    "operational_anchor_count": 5,
    "operational_anchor_covering_product_count": 2,
    "catalog_provider": "Copernicus Data Space OData",
    "materialization_provider": "Microsoft Planetary Computer STAC via rslearn",
    "materialization_mode": "s1_live",
    "materialization_status": "sealed_olmo_input",
    "selection_preflight_valid": true,
    "materialization_seal_valid": true,
    "period_readiness": {
      "sentinel1": 4,
      "sentinel2_l2a": 4
    },
    "olmo_ready": true,
    "claim_boundary": "Tile cloud and B02-bright fractions are not AOI cloud-free coverage; no post-event embedding is claimed."
  },
  "olmoearth": {
    "model": "OLMoEarth Base v1 (768-d)",
    "input_contract": "S1 RTC VV/VH linear intensity→dB + S2 L2A 12-band, 10 m, 4 periods, 2.56 km windows",
    "anchors": 5,
    "rasuwagadhi_baseline": "materialized_and_sealed",
    "embedding_status": "executed_offline_with_delta_provenance",
    "anchor_geojson": "/data/olmo-input-anchors.geojson",
    "post_event_delta": {
      "created_at_utc": "20260829T152418Z",
      "live_mode": "s1_live",
      "placebo_samples": 10,
      "rasuwagadhi_live_mean": 0.024131879210472107,
      "label": "not detected above daily variability",
      "claim_boundary": "candidate change only; not damage probability"
    }
  },
  "decision": {
    "status": "not_detected",
    "action": "NOT DETECTED ABOVE VARIABILITY",
    "reason": "Sealed post-event cube and delta computed; anchor-mean Δz does not exceed the pre-event placebo set (n=10). Matched 1-period pairs (n=9): only rasuwagadhi ranks 1/10, by 0.0002.",
    "next_gate": "Anchor-mean Δz is too blunt; use token-level evidence (corridor scan) and the next S1/S2 pass.",
    "allowed_claim": "No candidate change claimed at anchor scale; observation chain intact."
  },
  "ops_log": [
    {
      "event_id": "0acb2e798e395359",
      "time_utc": "20260904T011451Z",
      "recorded_at_utc": "20260904T011451Z",
      "time_basis": "artifact_recorded_at",
      "source": "Sentinel-1 RTC orbit 121",
      "type": "RADAR_SCAN",
      "priority": "green",
      "summary": "M92 radar scan: 56/56 windows readable under cloud (optical read 6/49 on the same hillslope grid)",
      "evidence_uri": "artifacts/source_radar_scan/report.json"
    },
    {
      "event_id": "8bd2fe28ad3e06d1",
      "time_utc": "20260904T011451Z",
      "recorded_at_utc": "20260904T011451Z",
      "time_basis": "artifact_recorded_at",
      "source": "Sentinel-1 RTC orbit 121",
      "type": "RADAR_NOT_DETECTED",
      "priority": "orange",
      "summary": "M92 region-wide: event fortnight changed less than the ordinary one (7/56 windows above) — no detection claimed",
      "evidence_uri": "artifacts/source_radar_scan/report.json"
    },
    {
      "event_id": "8cedb4a08239e67c",
      "time_utc": "20260829T152418Z",
      "recorded_at_utc": "20260829T152418Z",
      "time_basis": "artifact_recorded_at",
      "source": "OLMoEarth Δz",
      "type": "DELTA_REPORT",
      "priority": "green",
      "summary": "live=s1_live placebo n=10",
      "evidence_uri": "artifacts/external_data/nepal_olmo_live_v1/delta/20260829T152418Z/nepal_delta_report.json"
    },
    {
      "event_id": "d2b5076abac177b8",
      "time_utc": "20260829T130711Z",
      "recorded_at_utc": "20260829T130711Z",
      "time_basis": "artifact_recorded_at",
      "source": "OLMoEarth Δz",
      "type": "DELTA_REPORT",
      "priority": "green",
      "summary": "live=s1_live placebo n=10",
      "evidence_uri": "artifacts/external_data/nepal_olmo_live_v1/delta/20260829T130711Z/nepal_delta_report.json"
    },
    {
      "event_id": "f85b5c5b961c987d",
      "time_utc": "20260829T115424Z",
      "recorded_at_utc": "20260829T115424Z",
      "time_basis": "artifact_recorded_at",
      "source": "OLMoEarth Δz",
      "type": "DELTA_REPORT",
      "priority": "green",
      "summary": "live=s1_live placebo n=10",
      "evidence_uri": "artifacts/external_data/nepal_olmo_live_v1/delta/20260829T115424Z/nepal_delta_report.json"
    },
    {
      "event_id": "7214b1c189854393",
      "time_utc": "20260829T085533Z",
      "recorded_at_utc": "20260829T085533Z",
      "time_basis": "artifact_recorded_at",
      "source": "OLMoEarth Δz",
      "type": "DELTA_REPORT",
      "priority": "green",
      "summary": "live=s1_live placebo n=2",
      "evidence_uri": "artifacts/external_data/nepal_olmo_live_v1/delta/20260829T085533Z/nepal_delta_report.json"
    },
    {
      "event_id": "e710b69e9f5d7451",
      "time_utc": "20260828T070505Z",
      "recorded_at_utc": "20260828T070505Z",
      "time_basis": "artifact_recorded_at",
      "source": "OLMoEarth Δz",
      "type": "DELTA_REPORT",
      "priority": "green",
      "summary": "live=None placebo n=2",
      "evidence_uri": "artifacts/external_data/nepal_olmo_live_v1/delta/20260828T070505Z/nepal_delta_report.json"
    },
    {
      "event_id": "c08d5035b295237e",
      "time_utc": "2026-08-31T04:19:14Z",
      "recorded_at_utc": "2026-08-31T04:19:14Z",
      "time_basis": "artifact_recorded_at",
      "source": "Copernicus OData",
      "type": "CATALOG_SNAPSHOT",
      "priority": "blue",
      "summary": "snapshot 20260831T041914Z: s2b_20260827=published, s1d_20260828=published, s2c_20260829=published",
      "evidence_uri": "artifacts/external_data/nepal_olmo_live_v1/catalog/20260831T041914Z/acquisition_status.json"
    },
    {
      "event_id": "d0b3b28496be872f",
      "time_utc": "2026-08-31T04:19:14Z",
      "recorded_at_utc": "2026-08-31T04:19:14Z",
      "time_basis": "artifact_recorded_at",
      "source": "Copernicus OData",
      "type": "SCENE_PUBLISHED",
      "priority": "green",
      "summary": "Sentinel-2C L2A s2c_20260829 published (latency 369.3 min)",
      "evidence_uri": "artifacts/external_data/nepal_olmo_live_v1/catalog/20260831T041914Z/acquisition_status.json"
    },
    {
      "event_id": "2c7abf2d66718a04",
      "time_utc": "2026-08-31T04:19:14Z",
      "recorded_at_utc": "2026-08-31T04:19:14Z",
      "time_basis": "artifact_recorded_at",
      "source": "Copernicus OData",
      "type": "SCENE_PUBLISHED",
      "priority": "green",
      "summary": "Sentinel-1D IW GRD s1d_20260831 published (latency 128.2 min)",
      "evidence_uri": "artifacts/external_data/nepal_olmo_live_v1/catalog/20260831T041914Z/acquisition_status.json"
    },
    {
      "event_id": "79485d8504a94cc5",
      "time_utc": "2026-08-29T15:26:40Z",
      "recorded_at_utc": "2026-08-29T15:26:40Z",
      "time_basis": "filesystem_mtime",
      "source": "OLMoEarth v1",
      "type": "S1DB_SCREENING",
      "priority": "green",
      "summary": "27/27 dB-corrected windows; max local-p99 exceedance 0.42% (w23)",
      "evidence_uri": "artifacts/external_data/nepal_olmo_live_v1/corridor_sealed_s1db/report.json"
    },
    {
      "event_id": "741c135dbe0e64ce",
      "time_utc": "2026-08-29T11:45:23Z",
      "recorded_at_utc": "2026-08-29T11:45:23Z",
      "time_basis": "artifact_recorded_at",
      "source": "rslearn materialize",
      "type": "SEALED",
      "priority": "green",
      "summary": "placebo_20260617: 91 files, 49,087,553 B — sealed",
      "evidence_uri": "artifacts/external_data/nepal_olmo_live_v1/materialized/placebo_20260617/materialization_manifest.json"
    },
    {
      "event_id": "faba282c10a476dc",
      "time_utc": "2026-08-29T11:45:12Z",
      "recorded_at_utc": "2026-08-29T11:45:12Z",
      "time_basis": "artifact_recorded_at",
      "source": "rslearn materialize",
      "type": "SEALED",
      "priority": "green",
      "summary": "placebo_20260624: 91 files, 49,369,137 B — sealed",
      "evidence_uri": "artifacts/external_data/nepal_olmo_live_v1/materialized/placebo_20260624/materialization_manifest.json"
    },
    {
      "event_id": "0dc06b8842e45066",
      "time_utc": "2026-08-29T11:45:02Z",
      "recorded_at_utc": "2026-08-29T11:45:02Z",
      "time_basis": "artifact_recorded_at",
      "source": "rslearn materialize",
      "type": "SEALED",
      "priority": "green",
      "summary": "placebo_20260701: 91 files, 49,860,227 B — sealed",
      "evidence_uri": "artifacts/external_data/nepal_olmo_live_v1/materialized/placebo_20260701/materialization_manifest.json"
    },
    {
      "event_id": "7318bff162ee0d89",
      "time_utc": "2026-08-29T11:44:57Z",
      "recorded_at_utc": "2026-08-29T11:44:57Z",
      "time_basis": "artifact_recorded_at",
      "source": "rslearn materialize",
      "type": "SEALED",
      "priority": "green",
      "summary": "placebo_20260708: 91 files, 49,399,652 B — sealed",
      "evidence_uri": "artifacts/external_data/nepal_olmo_live_v1/materialized/placebo_20260708/materialization_manifest.json"
    },
    {
      "event_id": "8bafa92b8dceed09",
      "time_utc": "2026-08-29T11:44:52Z",
      "recorded_at_utc": "2026-08-29T11:44:52Z",
      "time_basis": "artifact_recorded_at",
      "source": "rslearn materialize",
      "type": "SEALED",
      "priority": "green",
      "summary": "placebo_20260715: 91 files, 49,694,728 B — sealed",
      "evidence_uri": "artifacts/external_data/nepal_olmo_live_v1/materialized/placebo_20260715/materialization_manifest.json"
    },
    {
      "event_id": "160cbe6874867d50",
      "time_utc": "2026-08-29T11:44:47Z",
      "recorded_at_utc": "2026-08-29T11:44:47Z",
      "time_basis": "artifact_recorded_at",
      "source": "rslearn materialize",
      "type": "SEALED",
      "priority": "green",
      "summary": "placebo_20260722: 91 files, 49,178,242 B — sealed",
      "evidence_uri": "artifacts/external_data/nepal_olmo_live_v1/materialized/placebo_20260722/materialization_manifest.json"
    },
    {
      "event_id": "25d4d2cc0a9cd464",
      "time_utc": "2026-08-29T11:44:38Z",
      "recorded_at_utc": "2026-08-29T11:44:38Z",
      "time_basis": "artifact_recorded_at",
      "source": "rslearn materialize",
      "type": "SEALED",
      "priority": "green",
      "summary": "placebo_20260729: 91 files, 49,296,368 B — sealed",
      "evidence_uri": "artifacts/external_data/nepal_olmo_live_v1/materialized/placebo_20260729/materialization_manifest.json"
    },
    {
      "event_id": "994d75e50a375f69",
      "time_utc": "2026-08-29T11:44:32Z",
      "recorded_at_utc": "2026-08-29T11:44:32Z",
      "time_basis": "artifact_recorded_at",
      "source": "rslearn materialize",
      "type": "SEALED",
      "priority": "green",
      "summary": "placebo_20260805: 91 files, 49,128,632 B — sealed",
      "evidence_uri": "artifacts/external_data/nepal_olmo_live_v1/materialized/placebo_20260805/materialization_manifest.json"
    },
    {
      "event_id": "339bffbbfb3c7c6f",
      "time_utc": "2026-08-29T08:02:31Z",
      "recorded_at_utc": "2026-08-29T08:02:31Z",
      "time_basis": "artifact_recorded_at",
      "source": "rslearn materialize",
      "type": "SEAL_INVALID",
      "priority": "orange",
      "summary": "s2_live: 81 files, 45,765,680 B — contract failed (S1 3/4, S2 4/4)",
      "evidence_uri": "artifacts/external_data/nepal_olmo_live_v1/materialized/s2_live/materialization_manifest.json"
    },
    {
      "event_id": "80a1d1820432db12",
      "time_utc": "2026-08-29T08:02:27.293729+00:00",
      "recorded_at_utc": "2026-08-29T08:02:27.293729+00:00",
      "time_basis": "artifact_field",
      "source": "rslearn preflight",
      "type": "PREFLIGHT_PASS",
      "priority": "green",
      "summary": "s2_live: 5/5 anchors selected required scene",
      "evidence_uri": "artifacts/external_data/nepal_olmo_live_v1/materialized/s2_live/selection_preflight.json"
    },
    {
      "event_id": "b97b12dfd3e37041",
      "time_utc": "2026-08-29T08:02:18Z",
      "recorded_at_utc": "2026-08-29T08:02:18Z",
      "time_basis": "artifact_recorded_at",
      "source": "rslearn materialize",
      "type": "SEALED",
      "priority": "green",
      "summary": "s1_live: 91 files, 48,882,901 B — sealed",
      "evidence_uri": "artifacts/external_data/nepal_olmo_live_v1/materialized/s1_live/materialization_manifest.json"
    },
    {
      "event_id": "1bf73868ee71d7e4",
      "time_utc": "2026-08-29T07:54:21.846532+00:00",
      "recorded_at_utc": "2026-08-29T07:54:21.846532+00:00",
      "time_basis": "artifact_field",
      "source": "rslearn preflight",
      "type": "PREFLIGHT_PASS",
      "priority": "green",
      "summary": "s1_live: 5/5 anchors selected required scene",
      "evidence_uri": "artifacts/external_data/nepal_olmo_live_v1/materialized/s1_live/selection_preflight.json"
    },
    {
      "event_id": "2460604444bdb61f",
      "time_utc": "2026-08-29T07:54:01Z",
      "recorded_at_utc": "2026-08-29T07:54:01Z",
      "time_basis": "artifact_recorded_at",
      "source": "Copernicus OData",
      "type": "CATALOG_SNAPSHOT",
      "priority": "blue",
      "summary": "snapshot 20260829T075401Z: s2b_20260827=published, s1d_20260828=published, s2c_20260829=acquired_pending_catalog",
      "evidence_uri": "artifacts/external_data/nepal_olmo_live_v1/catalog/20260829T075401Z/acquisition_status.json"
    },
    {
      "event_id": "71f8e8dc6eb0071e",
      "time_utc": "2026-08-29T07:54:01Z",
      "recorded_at_utc": "2026-08-29T07:54:01Z",
      "time_basis": "artifact_recorded_at",
      "source": "Copernicus OData",
      "type": "SCENE_PUBLISHED",
      "priority": "green",
      "summary": "Sentinel-2B L2A s2b_20260827 published (latency 276.8 min)",
      "evidence_uri": "artifacts/external_data/nepal_olmo_live_v1/catalog/20260829T075401Z/acquisition_status.json"
    },
    {
      "event_id": "e95b151f6778fe51",
      "time_utc": "2026-08-29T07:54:01Z",
      "recorded_at_utc": "2026-08-29T07:54:01Z",
      "time_basis": "artifact_recorded_at",
      "source": "Copernicus OData",
      "type": "SCENE_PUBLISHED",
      "priority": "green",
      "summary": "Sentinel-1D IW GRD s1d_20260828 published (latency 171.8 min)",
      "evidence_uri": "artifacts/external_data/nepal_olmo_live_v1/catalog/20260829T075401Z/acquisition_status.json"
    },
    {
      "event_id": "8ace84b6c691f14e",
      "time_utc": "2026-08-29T05:26:55Z",
      "recorded_at_utc": "2026-08-29T05:26:55Z",
      "time_basis": "artifact_recorded_at",
      "source": "Copernicus OData",
      "type": "CATALOG_SNAPSHOT",
      "priority": "blue",
      "summary": "snapshot 20260829T052655Z: s2b_20260827=published, s1d_20260828=published, s2c_20260829=acquired_pending_catalog",
      "evidence_uri": "artifacts/external_data/nepal_olmo_live_v1/catalog/20260829T052655Z/acquisition_status.json"
    },
    {
      "event_id": "a5409faa233cf37c",
      "time_utc": "2026-08-29T05:26:55Z",
      "recorded_at_utc": "2026-08-29T05:26:55Z",
      "time_basis": "artifact_recorded_at",
      "source": "Copernicus OData",
      "type": "SCENE_PUBLISHED",
      "priority": "green",
      "summary": "Sentinel-2B L2A s2b_20260827 published (latency 276.8 min)",
      "evidence_uri": "artifacts/external_data/nepal_olmo_live_v1/catalog/20260829T052655Z/acquisition_status.json"
    },
    {
      "event_id": "35cfa24829c36297",
      "time_utc": "2026-08-29T05:26:55Z",
      "recorded_at_utc": "2026-08-29T05:26:55Z",
      "time_basis": "artifact_recorded_at",
      "source": "Copernicus OData",
      "type": "SCENE_PUBLISHED",
      "priority": "green",
      "summary": "Sentinel-1D IW GRD s1d_20260828 published (latency 171.8 min)",
      "evidence_uri": "artifacts/external_data/nepal_olmo_live_v1/catalog/20260829T052655Z/acquisition_status.json"
    },
    {
      "event_id": "b544f423753297a7",
      "time_utc": "2026-08-29T05:13:50Z",
      "recorded_at_utc": "2026-08-29T05:13:50Z",
      "time_basis": "artifact_recorded_at",
      "source": "Copernicus footprint audit",
      "type": "COVERAGE_PASS",
      "priority": "green",
      "summary": "Sentinel-1D IW GRD: 6 nearby products, 2 cover all 5 anchors — operational_anchors_covered",
      "evidence_uri": "artifacts/external_data/nepal_olmo_live_v1/coverage/20260829T051350Z/coverage_audit.json"
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    "integration_disclaimer": "Research integration of OlmoEarth representations with EarthRanger-style incident provenance and Skylight-style observation awareness; not an official Ai2 disaster product.",
    "nepal_embedding": {
      "status": "post_event_delta_executed",
      "baseline": "5 anchors × S1+S2 × 4 periods materialized and sealed",
      "placebo_count": 10,
      "claim": "Sealed Nepal Δz executed: anchor-mean change was not detected above pre-event variability; matched token test flags no anchor. This is a review candidate, not damage extent or probability."
    },
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        "id": "nepal_pre_event_representation",
        "state": "EXECUTED",
        "model": "OlmoEarth v1 Base (frozen)",
        "input": "5 Nepal anchors × S1+S2 × 4 periods, across baseline and two pre-event placebo cubes",
        "output": "15 sealed embedding rasters; shape [768, 64, 64]",
        "allows": "pre-event reference, retrieval query and a future post-event delta",
        "forbids": "damage, flood depth, runout or anomaly claims",
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        "id": "A4",
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        "id": "A5",
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    "visual_legend": "orange=relative OLMo delta intensity; yellow-white=event tokens above the same location's single ordinary-transition p99"
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    "audited_at": "2026-08-29T14:30:00Z",
    "status": "corrected_and_rerun",
    "defect": "Sentinel-1 RTC COGs contained linear intensity, while the previous model configuration applied OlmoEarthNormalize without Sentinel1ToDecibels.",
    "official_contract": "Planetary Computer Sentinel-1 intensity must pass Sentinel1ToDecibels before OlmoEarthNormalize.",
    "official_source": "https://github.com/allenai/rslearn/blob/master/docs/foundation_models/OlmoEarth.md",
    "superseded_results": [
      "M70",
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      "M72 token-level addendum",
      "M74",
      "M74 S1-only addendum"
    ],
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    "corrected_recipe": "code/model_s1db.yaml",
    "corrected_report": "artifacts/external_data/nepal_olmo_live_v1/corridor_sealed_s1db/report.json",
    "corrected_modes": [
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    "five_anchor_rerun": {
      "status": "recomputed",
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        "placebo_20260701",
        "placebo_20260708",
        "placebo_20260715",
        "placebo_20260722",
        "placebo_20260729",
        "placebo_20260805",
        "s1_live"
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      "corridor_modes": [
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      "linear_outputs_preserved_as": "layers/embeddings_linear_s1 + embedding_manifest.linear_s1.json",
      "reports": {
        "naive": "delta/20260829T152418Z",
        "matched": "delta_matched/20260829T152433Z",
        "corridor_sealed": "corridor_sealed_s1db/report.json",
        "corridor_matched": "corridor_matched/report.json"
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      "result": "all five anchors not detected (naive and matched token-level); corridor: no candidate under own 1-period threshold; borrowed-threshold ranking top = Devighat, Bidur, Rasuwagadhi"
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  "corridor_contract": {
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      "total_layers": 216,
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      "embedding_sealed": true,
      "updated_at_utc": "2026-08-29T14:21:10+00:00"
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    "claim_boundary": "Screening only. No corridor damage, reach, calibrated anomaly, or probability claim exists without more ordinary transitions and independent labels."
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    "download": "/data/review-leads.geojson",
    "posthoc_note": "External reports were compared after ranking and never used to tune it; links are user-provided and not independently verified by this build.",
    "all_observable_download": "/data/candidates.geojson",
    "contract": {
      "score": "1 - cosine(z_before, z_after)",
      "ordinary_threshold": "pooled p99 from three non-event fortnight transitions",
      "minimum_observable_fraction_for_lead": 0.4,
      "lead_deduplication": "one lead per place name"
    }
  },
  "downstream_visual": {
    "schema": "olmoearth-bidur-visual-audit/v1",
    "created_at_utc": "2026-08-29T02:40:10.574343+00:00",
    "point": {
      "name": "Trishuli Bazar / Bidur reach",
      "coordinates": [
        85.1357,
        27.9162
      ]
    },
    "purpose": "visual_only_downstream_context_not_part_of_five_anchor_olmo_contract",
    "catalog": "https://planetarycomputer.microsoft.com/api/stac/v1",
    "collection": "sentinel-2-l2a",
    "records": [
      {
        "label": "pre",
        "acquired_at": "2026-08-12T04:57:01.025000Z",
        "item_id": "S2C_MSIL2A_20260812T045701_R119_T45RUL_20260812T100317",
        "candidate_item_ids": [
          "S2C_MSIL2A_20260812T045701_R119_T45RUL_20260812T100317"
        ],
        "mgrs_tile": "45RUL",
        "tile_cloud_pct": 27.947062,
        "bbox": [
          84.9659236,
          27.0197356,
          85.8709574,
          28.0201008
        ],
        "image": "/data/story/anchors/bidur_pre.png",
        "image_sha256": "e36a5e706d6c731be80124a459e58c2ee4ada0170d61edfbfb0fe94845320970",
        "render": {
          "crs": "EPSG:32645",
          "source_shape": [
            3,
            10980,
            10980
          ],
          "window_m": 2560,
          "output_shape": [
            256,
            256,
            4
          ],
          "valid_pixel_fraction": 1
        }
      },
      {
        "label": "post",
        "acquired_at": "2026-08-27T04:56:59.024000Z",
        "item_id": "S2B_MSIL2A_20260827T045659_R119_T45RUL_20260827T084453",
        "candidate_item_ids": [
          "S2B_MSIL2A_20260827T045659_R119_T45RUL_20260827T084453"
        ],
        "mgrs_tile": "45RUL",
        "tile_cloud_pct": 54.286689,
        "bbox": [
          84.9659236,
          27.0197356,
          85.8765996,
          28.0201614
        ],
        "image": "/data/story/anchors/bidur_post.png",
        "image_sha256": "c2bf59207d20584edf410c2511bad7c0e89fc4332cd5a044650029f2c38342ea",
        "render": {
          "crs": "EPSG:32645",
          "source_shape": [
            3,
            10980,
            10980
          ],
          "window_m": 2560,
          "output_shape": [
            256,
            256,
            4
          ],
          "valid_pixel_fraction": 1
        }
      }
    ]
  },
  "simulation": {
    "engine": "Rust/WASM deterministic particle preview",
    "route_source": "verified OSM river-way chain from Bhote Koshi through Trishuli to the current Galchhi inspection endpoint",
    "route_points": 78,
    "mapped_route_km_from_border": 73.7,
    "reported_total_travel_km": 100,
    "reported_reach_source": "USGS preliminary findings as of 2026-08-27",
    "trace_endpoint": {
      "name": "Galchhi reach-search endpoint",
      "coordinates": [
        84.9883085,
        27.805496
      ]
    },
    "trace_endpoint_boundary": "Current mapped inspection endpoint; not a confirmed terminal deposit or inundation boundary.",
    "claim": "illustrative_kinematic_preview_not_hazard_forecast",
    "scientific_upgrade": "precomputed r.avaflow v4 ensemble, independently checked with D-Claw"
  },
  "provenance": {
    "source_root": "olmoearth_projects/_work/artifacts/external_data/nepal_olmo_live_v1/materialized/baseline/dataset/windows/nepal/rasuwagadhi",
    "metadata_sha256": "13da77438f26a8b356381c5a70cb2fab82d493f32fa600dba84f81ce3fdd7c5d",
    "items_sha256": "2768a14e5d59d4441b8d365a9a5641be0c31cef72ee16422dfe6461dab59da72",
    "hydrography_sha256": "cb2c956e75a7fb90d0a31e682f4a41419bd39755077e28640f8664c0467dd2fd",
    "catalog_snapshot": "20260831T041914Z",
    "catalog_generated_at_utc": "2026-08-31T04:19:14Z",
    "catalog_sha256": "9a4c53aa0f68a7a74e04b8c2795fba0f26ea324b40887f718871b69917d373ac",
    "acquisition_status_sha256": "d13d587d67690eace137fca71d2e0ecd5308c57ca4f9aa472fb3fdb4c13dfabc",
    "catalog_seal_sha256": "d101aaf19dad64845f5e3f2b20f912418d1a04d8efb258a32786042252f51211",
    "coverage_snapshot": "20260829T051350Z",
    "coverage_audit_sha256": "4d8ad1682a470094804543cc2a5c947d18395623b1ffab1bac773bc3fd1591d2",
    "coverage_seal_sha256": "d1464d28b8a7b38e2b9d0650b7a18f1190e649113f4260e2d7bf0f010d5dad18",
    "s2_live_selection_preflight_sha256": "1fe861106832053399a7e201b7974683a405817afd306a5e35d5c724172dcf73",
    "s1_live_selection_preflight_sha256": "3dbce7c5f3f02920d0a93dc2603062aeff87f892ac4e83d98ae92c68bec45572",
    "s2_live_materialization_manifest_sha256": "adcd73da0b4697c933ff176348798581d7a472613ca4758577f6374575eb9498",
    "s1_live_materialization_manifest_sha256": "6835dff4b9e2f292c491912f05e882308d604e462368455d0ff5fa63a44fb55f"
  },
  "external_label_score": {
    "schema": "external-label-score-v1",
    "measurement_id": "M86",
    "generated_at_utc": "2026-08-31T05:37:24Z",
    "labels_frozen_at": "2026-08-31",
    "labels": [
      "IWM PlanetScope VAP02 (to 08-28)",
      "TASA FORMOSAT-5 (08-16→08-28)",
      "JAXA ALOS-2 flood proxy (08-28)"
    ],
    "excluded_labels": {
      "eosrs_s1_dpm_20260828": "KMZ is a NetworkLink TMS pyramid (remote tiles) with only a coverage outline; no embedded raster to score offline. Archive still sealed in SHA256SUMS."
    },
    "label_files_sha256": {
      "sealed_archives": [
        "290a851307dcb57d1e8f3d72eb817142c98528fb607755d6d44febde66c45ad0  Affected_Flood_in_Rasuwa_District_Nepal.zip",
        "3e3aff73fa6b3850859f35691dee2d56fa16df1878a3e43d32e1e543d661d7e4  EOS-RS_20260828_DPM_S1_Nepal_GLOF_v0.9.kmz",
        "9476f4086bd6490d11cc0304ab3bf7d971f81e418415c18307b68c0b2cc3c1a5  IWM_2026_08_26_Nepal_Flood_VAP02.zip",
        "4180d20fed464fecafae5fc5b3ee47cc70afe11b8bcf1e7035ecbcdc3e6e1e5f  JAXA_20250828_FPM_ALOS2_Nepal_FLDEXT.zip"
      ]
    },
    "ranking_unchanged": true,
    "observable_windows": 47,
    "label_positive_windows": 42,
    "precision_at_6_vector_union": 1,
    "non_lead_base_rate_vector_union": 0.8780487804878049,
    "lead_mean_overlap_frac": 0.05985000000000001,
    "non_lead_mean_overlap_frac": 0.06310414634146341,
    "verdict": "window_scale_not_discriminative",
    "claim_boundary": "window-level intersection with frozen third-party flood/damage proxies at 2.56 km scale; not damage confirmation, not area, not per-structure accuracy; labels are proxies frozen as published",
    "next_step": "token-scale (40 m) overlap against the same frozen labels, or independent ground labels",
    "evidence_uri": "artifacts/external_label_score/report.json"
  },
  "source_radar_scan": {
    "schema": "source-radar-scan-v1",
    "measurement_id": "M92",
    "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-03T08:43:44Z",
    "question": "Radar sees through cloud — does the source region show change above its own ordinary range?",
    "why": "The 49-window hillslope grid around the source was only 6/49 readable in post-event optical imagery; the 31 Aug Sentinel-1 pass does not cover all five sealed anchors, so this is a separate radar-only scan of the 56 windows it does cover.",
    "contract": {
      "orbit": 121,
      "orbit_state": "descending",
      "same_orbit_only": true,
      "event_pair": {
        "base": [
          "2026-07-26",
          "2026-08-07",
          "2026-08-19"
        ],
        "target": "2026-08-31"
      },
      "placebo_pair": {
        "base": [
          "2026-07-02",
          "2026-07-14",
          "2026-07-26"
        ],
        "target": "2026-08-07"
      },
      "input_unit": "gamma0 dB (10*log10 of RTC linear power)",
      "threshold_placebo_p99": 0.2472417771816253,
      "time_matched": true
    },
    "observability": {
      "radar_readable": 56,
      "radar_windows": 56,
      "optical_hillslope_readable": 6,
      "optical_hillslope_total": 49
    },
    "region_wide_result": {
      "windows_with_event_above_placebo": 7,
      "windows_ranked": 56,
      "mean_d_event": 0.125,
      "mean_d_placebo": 0.1322,
      "verdict": "not_detected_region_wide",
      "reading": "Across the scanned region the event fortnight changed no more than an ordinary one, so no region-wide radar detection is claimed."
    },
    "local_cluster": {
      "criterion": "the window's event pair changed more than its own time-matched ordinary pair",
      "unique_locations": 6,
      "mean_km_from_source": 4.73,
      "all_windows_mean_km_from_source": 6.58,
      "permutation_p": 0.0365,
      "permutation_note": "200,000 random draws of the same number of windows; p = probability that a random set sits at least this close to the source estimate",
      "windows": [
        {
          "id": "v070",
          "center_lonlat": [
            85.4927,
            28.3224
          ],
          "km_from_source": 5.7,
          "candidate_token_frac": 0.0828,
          "d_event_mean": 0.1526,
          "d_placebo_mean": 0.1261
        },
        {
          "id": "v076",
          "center_lonlat": [
            85.5191,
            28.2996
          ],
          "km_from_source": 2.6,
          "candidate_token_frac": 0.0652,
          "d_event_mean": 0.1385,
          "d_placebo_mean": 0.1217
        },
        {
          "id": "v050",
          "center_lonlat": [
            85.5194,
            28.2765
          ],
          "km_from_source": 0.0,
          "candidate_token_frac": 0.0618,
          "d_event_mean": 0.1389,
          "d_placebo_mean": 0.1296
        },
        {
          "id": "v064",
          "center_lonlat": [
            85.4662,
            28.3452
          ],
          "km_from_source": 9.2,
          "candidate_token_frac": 0.0613,
          "d_event_mean": 0.1427,
          "d_placebo_mean": 0.1296
        },
        {
          "id": "v069",
          "center_lonlat": [
            85.493,
            28.2993
          ],
          "km_from_source": 3.6,
          "candidate_token_frac": 0.0471,
          "d_event_mean": 0.133,
          "d_placebo_mean": 0.1262
        },
        {
          "id": "v063",
          "center_lonlat": [
            85.4665,
            28.3221
          ],
          "km_from_source": 7.2,
          "candidate_token_frac": 0.04,
          "d_event_mean": 0.1312,
          "d_placebo_mean": 0.1294
        }
      ],
      "reading": "Every window whose event pair out-changed its own ordinary pair sits within 9 km of the source estimate, averaging 4.7 km against 6.6 km for the scanned set (permutation p = 0.037). The cluster is where the collapse began; it is still a review priority, not a detection."
    },
    "excluded": {
      "windows": [
        "v094"
      ],
      "reason": "high on the pooled threshold but its event pair changed less than its own ordinary pair — pooled rank alone would have been misleading"
    },
    "claim_boundary": "Radar-only, single placebo pair, one event, one orbit, no field verification. This is a separate list from the optical six-lead funnel and is not damage, not risk, and not a detection.",
    "evidence_uri": "artifacts/source_radar_scan/report.json",
    "correction": {
      "date": "2026-09-04",
      "what": "the placebo pair was re-run with a time-matched target",
      "detail": "The first run used base{07-02,07-14,07-26} → 08-19, whose base-to-target gaps (48/36/24 days) were twice those of the event pair (36/24/12 days). Longer gaps change more on their own, so the ordinary bar was inflated. Re-running with target 08-07 makes the gaps identical.",
      "effect": "The conclusion did not move: mean ordinary change went 0.1327 → 0.1322 and the same 7 windows still exceed their ordinary pair. Radar change here does not grow with elapsed time, so the null result is a property of the signal, not of the contract error.",
      "superseded_artifacts": [
        "report_mismatched_placebo.json",
        "embed_mismatched_placebo/"
      ]
    }
  },
  "cell_accounting": {
    "schema": "cell-accounting-v1",
    "token_side": 64,
    "tokens_per_window": 4096,
    "token_ground_m": 40,
    "windows_scanned": 351,
    "windows_scored": 198,
    "cells_scanned": 1437696,
    "cells_scored": 811008,
    "note": "windows_scanned = 100 sealed corridor windows + 251 neighbour extension windows; windows_scored = 47 readable corridor + 151 ranked extension. The share card says scanned 1.4M / scored 0.8M because 200 windows were never readable."
  },
  "radar_orbit_replication": {
    "schema": "radar-orbit-replication-v1",
    "measurement_id": "M93",
    "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-08T03:34:00Z",
    "question": "Does the radar change ranking reproduce on an independent orbit with different look geometry?",
    "reference_orbit": 121,
    "replication_orbit": 19,
    "replication_event_pair": {
      "base": [
        "2026-07-31",
        "2026-08-12",
        "2026-08-24"
      ],
      "target": "2026-09-05"
    },
    "replication_placebo_pair": {
      "base": [
        "2026-07-07",
        "2026-07-19",
        "2026-07-31"
      ],
      "target": "2026-08-12"
    },
    "gap_days_identical": true,
    "windows_ranked_in_both": 56,
    "spearman": 0.7458,
    "pearson": 0.9227,
    "top_set_overlap": {
      "top1": 1,
      "top3": 2,
      "top5": 4,
      "top10": 9
    },
    "threshold_reference": 0.2472417771816253,
    "threshold_replication": 0.24988050758838654,
    "threshold_ratio": 1.0107,
    "reading": "Two Sentinel-1 tracks that never share an acquisition — orbit 121 descending and orbit 19 descending — put the same window first and second, overlap 9 of their top 10, and derive 'ordinary' thresholds within 1% of each other, with rank correlation 0.75 across all 56 windows. The ranking is a property of the scene, not of one viewing geometry or one speckle realisation.",
    "claim_boundary": "This is a reproducibility check on the measurement, not evidence of damage. Both tracks score the same windows for the same single event, so the independent-event sample is still n=1. The orbit-19 magnitudes are 2-3x larger because its base sits 2 days pre-event and its target 10 days post, capturing more of the event and less pre-event drift — that is a contract difference, not a stronger detection. Not risk, not damage."
  },
  "external_source_score": {
    "schema": "external-source-score-v1",
    "measurement_id": "M94",
    "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-08T07:05:00Z",
    "question": "Do the radar-flagged windows intersect the polygons a third party mapped as the source, more than chance?",
    "labels_frozen": {
      "provider": "UNOSAT / UNITAR",
      "event_code": "FL20260826NPL",
      "licence": "CC-BY-SA-4.0",
      "hdx_updated": "2026-09-04",
      "field_validation": "FieldValidation = 0 in the source attributes — UNOSAT has not ground-verified these either"
    },
    "ranking_unchanged": true,
    "windows_ranked": 56,
    "windows_flagged": 6,
    "detachment_zone": {
      "unosat_layer": "UNOSAT_Landsat9_20260826_DetachmentZone",
      "area_km2": 1.957,
      "windows_touching": 4,
      "flagged_touching": 3,
      "non_flagged_touching": 1,
      "flagged_mean_overlap_frac": 0.07061,
      "non_flagged_mean_overlap_frac": 0.00093,
      "flagged_mean_km": 2.52,
      "non_flagged_mean_km": 4.44,
      "all_windows_mean_km": 4.24,
      "permutation_p_overlap": 0.00197,
      "permutation_p_distance": 0.04934
    },
    "barrier_lakes": {
      "unosat_layer": "UNOSAT_Cartosat3_20260828_BarrierLakes",
      "area_km2": 0.314,
      "windows_touching": 4,
      "flagged_touching": 2,
      "non_flagged_touching": 2,
      "flagged_mean_overlap_frac": 0.00744,
      "non_flagged_mean_overlap_frac": 7e-05,
      "flagged_mean_km": 1.55,
      "non_flagged_mean_km": 4.61,
      "all_windows_mean_km": 4.28,
      "permutation_p_overlap": 0.01302,
      "permutation_p_distance": 0.00994
    },
    "reading": "Unlike the flood extent at window scale (M86, non-discriminative), these source polygons are small and localised — and here the ranking does separate. The six radar-flagged windows overlap the mapped detachment zone 76x more than the windows not flagged, and the mapped barrier lakes 100x more.",
    "claim_boundary": "An association between our ranking and two third-party polygons, on one event, with 56 windows and 6 flagged. UNOSAT's own attributes record FieldValidation = 0, so these polygons are not ground-verified either. The barrier lakes are post-event features, and a new water surface produces a large radar change by construction — finding them confirms the change is physical, not that we predicted anything. Not damage, not risk."
  },
  "official_event_record": "/data/official-event-record.json"
}