P R I f V I E  M I N I S T E R

FOR PRESS 13 AUGUST 1978

ELECTORATE TALK

On Tuesday, the Treasurer, Mr Howard, will bring down the  Government's Budget for the current financial year. I do  not wish to and cannot refer in any detail to the measures  he will be announcing. They are the result of intensive  discussion within the Government over many weeks.

Some of the decisions made have been difficult ones, but  they have been the right decisions.

The twin evils which face Australia today are the evils of  inflation and unemployment. The only way to raise employment  on a long-term sustainable basis is to beat inflation and  restore economic health.

The measures which the Government has been taking over the  past two and a half years to beat inflation have achieved  results. In the year to June 1978, the Consumer Price Index  rose 7.9 percent, which was a substantive improvement on the

increase of 16.9 percent in the year to June 1975. As a  consequence, interest rates are moving down. Economic  confidence is reviving.

The success which the Government has been having has gained  international acknowledgement from the Organisation for  Economic Co-operation and Development.

The OECD in its review of the economies of member countries  for July, pays tribute to Government incentives for their  part in sustaining private investment in Australia.

It expects the growth in Australia's Gross Domestic Product  during 1978 to be three and three quarter percent.

This is despite a generally gloomy view by the OECD, whose  forecasts suggest no substantial improvement in world  growth and little progress around the world in lowering  inflation further.

ÃÂ 1 though the long-term average annual growth in world trade  has be:1-, ^ight percent, the OECD expects this to be only  five percent u  J ÃÂ year and into 1979. Australia's recovery  is thus taking place a-ainst the background of a weak world

trading situation. ^

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It is particularly important to note that the OECD is now  forecasting a rate of inflation in Australia during 1978  of under seven percent, based on the broad-based GDP deflator. This means that Australia, in two years, has quickly brought

its inflation into line with that of the OECD average.

What we must now do, and what, above all, the Government's  policies are designed to achieve, is to drive that inflation  down further. We are determined, this financial year to have  our inflation well below that of the OECD average.

This is the only realistic option we have, in the context of  the world economic scene. This is the only way we will keep Ã¢ÂÂ

our products competitive, gain new markets for our exports,  and attract overseas private capital to Australia.

This is the route we must take if we are to be properly ready  to gain a growing share of the expansion of world trade, when  it comes.

Some few economic critics in Australia have attacked the policies  which have produced lower inflation, advocating instead  expansionary fiscal and monetary policies. One well publicised  set of such proposals would increase the Budget deficit to  between $4.5 billion to $5 billion and finance it by expanding

the national debt.

There would have to be substantial increases in interest rates  even to attempt to finance deficits of this magnitude and the  inevitable result would be failure.

A Government doing this would increase greatly the money supply. The effect on overseas investment in Australia would be serious.  There would be a revival of inflationary expectations and a blow  to confidence amongst consumers and investors. There would be

an end to any hope of success in sustaining a policy of wage  moderation which is crucial in the fight against unemployment  and inflation.

Such an expansionary approach has been widely opposed in business  and financial circles. I am also glad to see that Professor Corden  has pointed out the fallacies in the argument of those calling  for such a change in Government policies. In his words: "Wage moderation is and remains the key." When I was overseas I found

no support for such action in any of the countries I visited.

The Government knows that the economic road we are on is a  difficult one. But in all plainness, I must say that if we  are to restore economic health and revive employment on a longÂ­ term sustainable basis, there is no alternative. We must adhere

to those economic policies which over the past two years have  cut inflation in half and begun the revival of business confidence -

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