{
  "as_of": "2026-10-19",
  "season": "2026/27",
  "round": "Regular Season - 7",
  "settings": {
    "half_life_days": 180.0,
    "xg_weight": 0.5,
    "ridge": 1.0,
    "rho": -0.13
  },
  "games": [
    {
      "home_team": "Tottenham",
      "away_team": "Coventry",
      "call": "H",
      "call_name": "home win",
      "confidence": "too close to call",
      "probabilities": {
        "H": 0.42,
        "D": 0.309,
        "A": 0.271
      },
      "market": {
        "H": 0.643,
        "D": 0.206,
        "A": 0.151
      },
      "expected_goals": {
        "home": 1.33,
        "away": 1.02
      },
      "score": [
        1,
        0
      ],
      "top_scores": [
        {
          "score": [
            1,
            1
          ],
          "probability": 0.146
        },
        {
          "score": [
            0,
            0
          ],
          "probability": 0.112
        },
        {
          "score": [
            1,
            0
          ],
          "probability": 0.11
        },
        {
          "score": [
            2,
            1
          ],
          "probability": 0.086
        },
        {
          "score": [
            2,
            0
          ],
          "probability": 0.084
        }
      ],
      "waterfall": {
        "start": 39.9,
        "start_label": "Average home side v average visitor",
        "steps": [
          {
            "label": "Coventry's defence",
            "detail": "Coventry concede 29% more than an average side",
            "kind": "defence",
            "team": "Coventry",
            "change": 9.1,
            "helps": "Tottenham"
          },
          {
            "label": "Tottenham's defence",
            "detail": "Tottenham concede 27% more than an average side",
            "kind": "defence",
            "team": "Tottenham",
            "change": -5.6,
            "helps": "Coventry"
          },
          {
            "label": "Tottenham's attack",
            "detail": "Tottenham create and score 12% less than an average side",
            "kind": "attack",
            "team": "Tottenham",
            "change": -4.6,
            "helps": "Coventry"
          },
          {
            "label": "Coventry's attack",
            "detail": "Coventry create and score 18% less than an average side",
            "kind": "attack",
            "team": "Coventry",
            "change": 4.6,
            "helps": "Tottenham"
          },
          {
            "label": "Tottenham team news",
            "detail": "Missing or doubtful: S\u00e1vio, Bentancur",
            "kind": "news",
            "team": "Tottenham",
            "change": -2.6,
            "helps": "Coventry"
          },
          {
            "label": "Coventry team news",
            "detail": "Missing or doubtful: Amenda",
            "kind": "news",
            "team": "Coventry",
            "change": 1.2,
            "helps": "Tottenham"
          }
        ],
        "total": 42.0
      },
      "standings": {
        "home": {
          "position": 19,
          "points": 3,
          "played": 6
        },
        "away": {
          "position": 14,
          "points": 6,
          "played": 6
        }
      },
      "xg": {
        "home": {
          "games": 5,
          "venue": "home",
          "xg_for": 1.3,
          "xg_against": 1.29,
          "goals_for": 0.8,
          "goals_against": 1.2
        },
        "away": {
          "games": 3,
          "venue": "away",
          "xg_for": 0.92,
          "xg_against": 1.79,
          "goals_for": 0.33,
          "goals_against": 1.33
        }
      },
      "finishing": {
        "home": {
          "games": 6,
          "goals": 3,
          "xg": 7.9,
          "difference": -4.9
        },
        "away": {
          "games": 6,
          "goals": 5,
          "xg": 6.6,
          "difference": -1.6
        }
      },
      "form": {
        "home": [
          {
            "result": "L",
            "line": "Tottenham 0-2 Newcastle",
            "date": "2026-08-29"
          },
          {
            "result": "D",
            "line": "Nott'm Forest 0-0 Tottenham",
            "date": "2026-09-05"
          },
          {
            "result": "D",
            "line": "Tottenham 0-0 Everton",
            "date": "2026-09-12"
          },
          {
            "result": "L",
            "line": "Tottenham 2-3 Aston Villa",
            "date": "2026-09-19"
          },
          {
            "result": "D",
            "line": "Man United 1-1 Tottenham",
            "date": "2026-10-10"
          }
        ],
        "away": [
          {
            "result": "L",
            "line": "Coventry 0-1 Hull",
            "date": "2026-08-29"
          },
          {
            "result": "L",
            "line": "Man City 1-0 Coventry",
            "date": "2026-09-05"
          },
          {
            "result": "L",
            "line": "Coventry 0-5 Brighton",
            "date": "2026-09-13"
          },
          {
            "result": "W",
            "line": "Nott'm Forest 0-1 Coventry",
            "date": "2026-09-19"
          },
          {
            "result": "W",
            "line": "Coventry 4-1 Newcastle",
            "date": "2026-10-12"
          }
        ]
      },
      "head_to_head": [],
      "team_news": [
        {
          "team": "Tottenham",
          "player": "S\u00e1vio",
          "position": "MID",
          "status": "Injured",
          "news": "Muscular injury - Expected back 7 Nov",
          "impact": "Medium",
          "share": 0.126
        },
        {
          "team": "Tottenham",
          "player": "Bentancur",
          "position": "MID",
          "status": "Suspended",
          "news": "Suspended until 7 Nov",
          "impact": "Small",
          "share": 0.012
        },
        {
          "team": "Coventry",
          "player": "Amenda",
          "position": "DEF",
          "status": "Injured",
          "news": "Calf injury - Unknown return date",
          "impact": "Medium",
          "share": 0.125
        }
      ],
      "luck": {
        "home": {
          "games": 10,
          "points": 10,
          "xpts": 14.9,
          "difference": -4.9
        },
        "away": {
          "games": 6,
          "points": 6,
          "xpts": 5.9,
          "difference": 0.1
        }
      },
      "luck_gap": null,
      "reasons": [
        {
          "topic": "Chances created and allowed",
          "title": "Coventry are leaking chances away from home",
          "text": "Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of chances. Over their last 5 home games Tottenham created 1.3 and allowed 1.3 a game. Over their last 3 away games Coventry created 0.9 and allowed 1.8."
        },
        {
          "topic": "Team news",
          "title": "Tottenham without S\u00e1vio",
          "text": "Tottenham: S\u00e1vio (injured), Bentancur (suspended). Coventry: Amenda (injured)."
        },
        {
          "topic": "Form",
          "title": "Coventry arrive in better form",
          "text": "Last five league games: Tottenham took 3 points, Coventry took 6."
        },
        {
          "topic": "Results vs performance",
          "title": "Tottenham's results undersell them by 5 points",
          "text": "Tottenham have 10 points from their last 10 league games, but their chances were worth 15. We rate teams on their chances, so Tottenham get more credit than their results."
        }
      ],
      "headline": "Nothing to split Tottenham and Coventry",
      "change_our_mind": "If Coventry's defence were only average, this would swing to a draw (34%).",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-19T19:00:00+00:00",
      "venue": null
    }
  ]
}