---
name: pre-mortem-kill-criteria
description: Use before launching products or signing contracts, when needing to combat sunk cost fallacy, or when standard pre-mortems fail to change behavior
---

# Pre-Mortems with Kill Criteria

## Overview

An enhancement to the standard pre-mortem that moves beyond simply imagining failure to establishing **pre-committed actions** based on specific negative signals.

**Core principle:** Thinking about failure isn't enough; you must commit to actions BEFORE you see the signals.

## The Process

```
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│  1. MENTAL TIME TRAVEL                                          │
│     Fast forward: Imagine the project has FAILED                │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│  2. SIGNAL IDENTIFICATION                                       │
│     "What early clues indicated the failure?"                   │
│     List specific, observable signals                           │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│  3. DEFINE KILL CRITERIA                                        │
│     Convert clues into measurable thresholds                    │
│     Example: "CPA > $50" or "Customer won't demo"               │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│  4. PRE-COMMITMENT                                              │
│     Establish rule: "If [Criteria] occurs, we [Kill/Pivot]"     │
│     Write it down and share with team                           │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│  5. ACTIVE MONITORING                                           │
│     Scan for criteria during execution                          │
│     Act immediately when triggered                              │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
```

## Key Principles

| Principle | Description |
|-----------|-------------|
| **Pre-commit** | Lock in actions before rationalization kicks in |
| **Signal focus** | Identify correlates of failure, not just the failure itself |
| **Prospective waste** | Think about future waste, not sunk cost |
| **Automatic triggers** | When criteria hit, action is mandatory |

## Common Mistakes

- Doing a pre-mortem but not changing the plan
- Identifying risks without setting a specific stop trigger
- Rationalizing signals when they appear ("it's different this time")

---

*Source: Annie Duke (First Round Capital, WSOP Champion) via Lenny's Podcast*