---
name: shortening-feedback-loops
description: Use when decisions seem to require years to evaluate, when hiding behind long-term vision to avoid accountability, or when struggling to learn from venture/product bets in real-time
---

# Shortening the Feedback Loop

## Overview

A mental model to debunk the idea that some decisions require years to evaluate. It involves identifying **short-term proxies** that correlate with long-term success.

**Core principle:** There is no such thing as a long feedback loop—it's a choice to wait.

## The Framework

```
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│                                                                  │
│   ULTIMATE OUTCOME (e.g., IPO / $1B Exit)                       │
│                     ▲                                           │
│                     │                                           │
│   ┌─────────────────┴─────────────────┐                         │
│   │   INTERMEDIATE PROXY              │                         │
│   │   (Necessary Condition)           │                         │
│   │   e.g., Series A Funding (18 mo)  │                         │
│   └─────────────────┬─────────────────┘                         │
│                     │                                           │
│   ┌─────────────────┴─────────────────┐                         │
│   │   SHORT-TERM SIGNAL               │                         │
│   │   (Correlated Metric)             │                         │
│   │   e.g., Net New ARR, Retention    │                         │
│   └───────────────────────────────────┘                         │
│                                                                  │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
```

## Key Principles

| Principle | Description |
|-----------|-------------|
| **Necessary conditions** | Find what MUST happen for ultimate success |
| **Correlated signals** | Look for metrics that predict the outcome |
| **Proactive measurement** | Design experiments to surface signals early |
| **Trade safety for learning** | Knowing early is better than comfortable ignorance |

## Common Mistakes

- Waiting for final exit/outcome to judge decision quality
- Ignoring interim signals like funding or retention
- Hiding behind "it's too early to tell"

---

*Source: Annie Duke (First Round Capital) via Lenny's Podcast*