--- name: business-health-diagnostic description: Diagnose SaaS business health using key metrics, identify red flags, and prioritize actions. Analyzes growth, retention, efficiency, and capital health. type: interactive --- ## Purpose Diagnose overall SaaS business health by analyzing growth, retention, unit economics, and capital efficiency metrics together. Use this to identify problems early, prioritize actions by urgency, and deliver a comprehensive health scorecard for board meetings, quarterly reviews, or fundraising preparation. This is not a single-metric check—it's a holistic diagnostic that connects revenue, retention, economics, and efficiency to reveal systemic issues and opportunities. ## Key Concepts ### The Business Health Framework A SaaS business is healthy when four dimensions work together: 1. **Growth & Retention** — Are you growing and keeping customers? - Revenue growth rate - NRR (Net Revenue Retention) - Churn rate - Quick Ratio 2. **Unit Economics** — Is the business model profitable at the customer level? - CAC (Customer Acquisition Cost) - LTV (Lifetime Value) - LTV:CAC ratio - Payback period - Gross margin 3. **Capital Efficiency** — Are you using cash efficiently? - Burn rate - Runway - Rule of 40 - Magic Number 4. **Strategic Position** — Are you positioned for sustainable success? - Market positioning (below, at, above market pricing) - Competitive moat (network effects, data, brand) - Revenue concentration risk - Operating leverage ### Stage-Specific Benchmarks **Early Stage (Pre-$10M ARR):** - Focus: Product-market fit, unit economics - Growth: >50% YoY - LTV:CAC: >3:1 - Gross Margin: >70% - Runway: >12 months - Acceptable: Negative margins, high burn (if unit economics work) **Growth Stage ($10M-$50M ARR):** - Focus: Scaling efficiently - Growth: >40% YoY - NRR: >100% - Rule of 40: >40 - Magic Number: >0.75 - Acceptable: Moderate burn if growth is strong **Scale Stage ($50M+ ARR):** - Focus: Profitability, efficiency - Growth: >25% YoY - NRR: >110% - Rule of 40: >40 - Profit Margin: >10% - Required: Positive or near-positive cash flow ### Red Flag Categories **Critical (Fix immediately):** - Runway <6 months - LTV:CAC <1.5:1 - Churn accelerating cohort-over-cohort - NRR <90% - Magic Number <0.3 **High Priority (Fix within quarter):** - Rule of 40 <25 - Payback >24 months - Quick Ratio <2 - Gross margin <60% - Revenue concentration >50% in top 10 customers **Medium Priority (Address within 6 months):** - NRR 90-100% (flat, not growing) - Magic Number 0.3-0.5 - Operating leverage negative - Churn rate stable but high (>5% monthly) ### Anti-Patterns (What This Is NOT) - **Not a single metric:** "Revenue is growing 50%, we're great!" (ignoring burn, churn, unit economics) - **Not stage-agnostic:** Early-stage burn is acceptable; scale-stage burn is a problem - **Not static:** Health is directional—are metrics improving or degrading? - **Not just numbers:** Context matters (competitive pressure, market changes, team capacity) ### When to Use This Framework **Use this when:** - Preparing for board meetings or investor updates - Quarterly business reviews (QBR) - Fundraising preparation (know your numbers) - Annual planning (identify improvement areas) - You suspect problems but can't pinpoint them - New PM/exec joining and needs health assessment **Don't use this when:** - You're pre-revenue (focus on product-market fit first) - You're in pure research mode (not enough data) - You need tactical guidance (use specific skills: feature, channel, pricing) --- ### Facilitation Source of Truth Use [`workshop-facilitation`](../workshop-facilitation/SKILL.md) as the default interaction protocol for this skill. It defines: - session heads-up + entry mode (Guided, Context dump, Best guess) - one-question turns with plain-language prompts - progress labels (for example, Context Qx/8 and Scoring Qx/5) - interruption handling and pause/resume behavior - numbered recommendations at decision points - quick-select numbered response options for regular questions (include `Other (specify)` when useful) This file defines the domain-specific assessment content. If there is a conflict, follow this file's domain logic. ## Application This interactive skill asks **up to 4 adaptive questions**, then delivers a comprehensive diagnostic with prioritized recommendations. --- ### Step 0: Gather Context **Agent asks:** "Let's diagnose your business health. I'll need metrics across four dimensions: growth, retention, unit economics, and capital efficiency. **Company context:** - Stage: (Pre-$10M ARR, $10M-$50M ARR, $50M+ ARR) - Business model: (PLG, sales-led, hybrid) - Target market: (SMB, mid-market, enterprise, mixed) **Why this matters:** Benchmarks vary by stage. Early-stage optimizes for growth; scale-stage optimizes for efficiency. Please provide the following metrics. Use 'unknown' if you don't have a metric." --- ### Step 1: Growth & Retention Metrics **Agent asks:** "**Growth & Retention:** 1. **Revenue:** - Current MRR or ARR: $___ - Revenue growth rate: ___% (MoM or YoY) 2. **Retention:** - Monthly churn rate: ___% - NRR (Net Revenue Retention): ___% - Quick Ratio: ___ (or I can calculate it) 3. **Expansion:** - Expansion revenue as % of total MRR: ___% 4. **Cohort trends:** - Are recent cohorts retaining better or worse than older cohorts? 1. Better (improving) 2. Same (stable) 3. Worse (degrading) 4. Unknown" **Based on answers, agent evaluates:** - ✅ **Healthy growth:** Growth >40% YoY (growth stage) or >25% (scale stage) - ✅ **Healthy retention:** NRR >100%, churn <5% monthly, Quick Ratio >2 - 🚨 **Growth problems:** Growth <20% YoY - 🚨 **Retention problems:** NRR <100%, churn >5%, cohort degradation --- ### Step 2: Unit Economics Metrics **Agent asks:** "**Unit Economics:** 1. **Acquisition:** - CAC (Customer Acquisition Cost): $___ - Blended or by channel? (If by channel, what's your best channel CAC?) 2. **Value:** - LTV (Lifetime Value): $___ - LTV:CAC ratio: ___ (or I can calculate it) - Payback period: ___ months (or I can calculate it) 3. **Margins:** - Gross margin: ___% - Contribution margin (if known): ___% 4. **Trends:** - Is CAC increasing, stable, or decreasing over time? 1. Decreasing (improving efficiency) 2. Stable 3. Increasing (diminishing returns) 4. Unknown" **Based on answers, agent evaluates:** - ✅ **Healthy economics:** LTV:CAC >3:1, payback <12 months, gross margin >70% - ⚠️ **Marginal economics:** LTV:CAC 2-3:1, payback 12-18 months - 🚨 **Poor economics:** LTV:CAC <2:1, payback >24 months, gross margin <60% --- ### Step 3: Capital Efficiency Metrics **Agent asks:** "**Capital Efficiency:** 1. **Cash:** - Cash balance: $___ - Monthly net burn rate: $___ - Runway: ___ months (or I can calculate it) 2. **Efficiency ratios:** - Rule of 40: ___ (Growth % + Profit Margin %) (or I can calculate it) - Magic Number: ___ (S&M efficiency) (or I can calculate it) 3. **Operating expenses:** - S&M as % of revenue: ___% - R&D as % of revenue: ___% - Is OpEx growing faster than revenue? 1. No (positive operating leverage) 2. Yes (negative operating leverage) 3. Unknown 4. **Profitability:** - Profit margin: ___% - Path to profitability: (already profitable, 6-12 months, 12-24 months, >24 months, unknown)" **Based on answers, agent evaluates:** - ✅ **Healthy efficiency:** Rule of 40 >40, magic number >0.75, runway >12 months - ⚠️ **Acceptable efficiency:** Rule of 40 25-40, magic number 0.5-0.75, runway 6-12 months - 🚨 **Poor efficiency:** Rule of 40 <25, magic number <0.5, runway <6 months --- ### Step 4: Deliver Comprehensive Diagnostic **Agent synthesizes all metrics and delivers:** 1. **Overall Health Score** — Healthy / Moderate / Concerning / Critical 2. **Dimension Scores** — Growth, Retention, Economics, Efficiency 3. **Red Flags** — Critical, High Priority, Medium Priority 4. **Prioritized Recommendations** — Top 3-5 actions with expected impact 5. **Stage-Appropriate Benchmarks** — How you compare to peers --- #### Diagnostic Pattern 1: Healthy Business **When:** - Growth, retention, economics, and efficiency all meet stage-appropriate benchmarks - No critical red flags - Improving trends **Output:** "## ✅ Overall Health: **Healthy** Your business shows strong fundamentals across all dimensions. --- ### Health Scorecard | Dimension | Score | Status | |-----------|-------|--------| | **Growth & Retention** | ✅ Healthy | Growth ___% YoY, NRR ___%, Churn ___% | | **Unit Economics** | ✅ Healthy | LTV:CAC ___:1, Payback ___ months | | **Capital Efficiency** | ✅ Healthy | Rule of 40: ___, Runway ___ months | | **Overall** | ✅ **Healthy** | Strong position for scaling | --- ### Key Strengths 1. **[Specific strength 1]** - Metric: [e.g., NRR 120%] - Why it matters: [Expanding within base without new logos] 2. **[Specific strength 2]** - Metric: [e.g., LTV:CAC 5:1] - Why it matters: [Sustainable unit economics support scaling] 3. **[Specific strength 3]** - Metric: [e.g., Rule of 40 = 65] - Why it matters: [Excellent balance of growth and efficiency] --- ### Opportunities for Optimization Even healthy businesses can improve. Here are your top opportunities: **1. [Opportunity 1]** - Current: [e.g., Magic Number 0.9] - Opportunity: [Could scale S&M spend 2x and maintain efficiency] - Impact: [+$___ MRR/month] **2. [Opportunity 2]** - Current: [e.g., Expansion revenue 15% of total] - Opportunity: [Build upsell paths, target 25% expansion revenue] - Impact: [NRR 110% → 120%] **3. [Opportunity 3]** - Current: [e.g., CAC $500, stable] - Opportunity: [Improve conversion, reduce CAC to $400] - Impact: [Faster payback, better LTV:CAC] --- ### Recommended Actions (Next Quarter) **Priority 1: Scale what's working** - [e.g., Double content marketing budget (best channel)] - Expected impact: [+___ customers/month, +$___ MRR] **Priority 2: Expand within base** - [e.g., Launch premium tier for 20% of customers] - Expected impact: [NRR 110% → 115%] **Priority 3: Improve efficiency** - [e.g., Optimize paid acquisition (reduce CAC 10%)] - Expected impact: [Payback 8mo → 7mo] --- ### Monitor These Metrics **Weekly:** - NRR (should stay >___%) - Churn rate (should stay <___%) - Quick Ratio (should stay >___) **Monthly:** - Rule of 40 (should stay >___) - Magic Number (should stay >___) - LTV:CAC (should stay >___:1) **Quarterly:** - Cohort retention trends - Revenue concentration risk - Operating leverage --- ### Benchmarks (Your Stage: [Growth/Scale]) | Metric | Your Performance | Benchmark | Status | |--------|------------------|-----------|--------| | Growth Rate | ___% | >40% (growth) / >25% (scale) | ✅ | | NRR | ___% | >100% | ✅ | | LTV:CAC | ___:1 | >3:1 | ✅ | | Rule of 40 | ___ | >40 | ✅ | | Gross Margin | ___% | >70% | ✅ | You're performing at or above benchmarks across the board." --- #### Diagnostic Pattern 2: Moderate Health (Fixable Issues) **When:** - Most metrics acceptable, but 1-2 dimensions have problems - Medium-priority red flags - Solvable with focus **Output:** "## ⚠️ Overall Health: **Moderate** (Fixable Issues) Your business has good fundamentals but needs attention in [specific dimension]. --- ### Health Scorecard | Dimension | Score | Status | |-----------|-------|--------| | **Growth & Retention** | [✅ / ⚠️ / 🚨] | [Details] | | **Unit Economics** | [✅ / ⚠️ / 🚨] | [Details] | | **Capital Efficiency** | [✅ / ⚠️ / 🚨] | [Details] | | **Overall** | ⚠️ **Moderate** | [Primary issue area] needs attention | --- ### Red Flags Identified **High Priority** 🚨 1. **[Specific red flag]** - Metric: [e.g., NRR 95%] - Threshold: [Should be >100%] - Impact: [Base is contracting, not expanding] - Fix by: [End of quarter] **Medium Priority** ⚠️ 1. **[Specific issue]** - Metric: [e.g., Magic Number 0.6] - Threshold: [Should be >0.75] - Impact: [S&M spend moderately efficient, room for improvement] - Fix by: [6 months] --- ### Root Cause Analysis **Primary Issue: [e.g., Retention & Expansion]** **Symptoms:** - NRR 95% (should be >100%) - Churn rate 5% monthly (should be <3%) - Expansion revenue only 10% of MRR (should be 20-30%) **Diagnosis:** [e.g., Customers are churning before they expand. Onboarding is weak, no clear upsell paths.] **Impact:** - Lost MRR: [Calculate churn impact] - Missed expansion: [Calculate expansion opportunity] - Total impact: [Combined revenue loss] --- ### Prioritized Action Plan **Immediate (Next 30 days):** **1. Fix [Primary Issue]** - Action: [Specific step, e.g., "Launch onboarding improvement program"] - Owner: [PM, Customer Success] - Target: [Reduce churn 5% → 4%] - Impact: [Save $___K MRR/month] **Short-term (Next Quarter):** **2. [Secondary Action]** - Action: [e.g., "Build premium tier for upsell"] - Target: [NRR 95% → 105%] - Impact: [+$___K expansion MRR] **3. [Tertiary Action]** - Action: [e.g., "Optimize S&M spend, improve magic number"] - Target: [Magic Number 0.6 → 0.8] - Impact: [More efficient growth] --- ### What Success Looks Like (90 Days) **Target metrics:** - NRR: 95% → 105% (+10pp) - Churn: 5% → 3.5% (-30%) - Magic Number: 0.6 → 0.8 (+33%) **Impact:** - Monthly revenue saved from churn: +$___K - Expansion revenue: +$___K - More efficient S&M: [details] **If you hit these targets, you'll be in 'Healthy' territory.** --- ### Monitor Weekly **Must-track metrics:** - Churn rate (track to ensure it's decreasing) - NRR (track to ensure it's improving) - Customer feedback (are improvements working?) **Leading indicators:** - Onboarding completion rate - Time-to-value - Usage metrics (activation, engagement) --- ### What Not to Do **Don't:** - Scale acquisition until retention is fixed (you'll just churn faster) - Ignore expansion (it's easier than new acquisition) - Wait too long (retention problems compound)" --- #### Diagnostic Pattern 3: Concerning Health (Urgent Action Required) **When:** - Multiple critical red flags - 2+ dimensions problematic - Requires immediate intervention **Output:** "## 🚨 Overall Health: **Concerning** (Urgent Action Required) Your business has multiple critical issues that need immediate attention. --- ### Health Scorecard | Dimension | Score | Status | |-----------|-------|--------| | **Growth & Retention** | 🚨 Concerning | [Details] | | **Unit Economics** | 🚨 Concerning | [Details] | | **Capital Efficiency** | 🚨 Critical | [Details] | | **Overall** | 🚨 **Concerning** | Multiple urgent issues | --- ### Critical Red Flags 🚨 **1. [Critical Issue 1 - e.g., Runway]** - Current: [6 months runway] - Threshold: [<6 months = crisis] - Impact: [Survival risk] - Action: [Raise capital OR cut burn immediately] - Timeline: [30 days] **2. [Critical Issue 2 - e.g., Unit Economics]** - Current: [LTV:CAC 1.2:1] - Threshold: [<1.5:1 = unsustainable] - Impact: [Losing money on every customer] - Action: [Reduce CAC OR increase LTV] - Timeline: [60 days] **3. [Critical Issue 3 - e.g., Cohort Degradation]** - Current: [Newer cohorts churning 2x faster than old] - Threshold: [Degrading PMF] - Impact: [Scaling makes problem worse] - Action: [Stop scaling, fix retention] - Timeline: [90 days] --- ### Survival Plan (Next 90 Days) **Week 1-2: Triage** **Immediate actions:** 1. **Extend runway** (if <6 months) - Option A: Raise bridge round ($___K) - Option B: Cut burn by ___% - Option C: Combination - Decision by: [Date] 2. **Stop scaling broken channels** - Pause S&M spend on channels with LTV:CAC <2:1 - Reallocate budget to [best-performing channel] 3. **Assemble crisis team** - Daily standups on key metrics - Weekly progress reviews --- **Month 1: Stop the Bleeding** **Priority 1: Fix Unit Economics** - Current: LTV:CAC ___:1 (unsustainable) - Actions: 1. Reduce CAC: [Specific tactics] 2. Increase LTV: [Improve retention, add expansion] - Target: LTV:CAC >2:1 within 30 days **Priority 2: Improve Retention** - Current: Churn ___% (too high) - Actions: 1. Interview churned customers (identify top 3 reasons) 2. Fix onboarding (reduce early churn) 3. Proactive outreach to at-risk accounts - Target: Reduce churn by 20% within 30 days --- **Month 2-3: Stabilize** **Milestone 1: Positive Unit Economics** - LTV:CAC >2:1 ✅ - Payback <18 months ✅ - Gross margin >60% ✅ **Milestone 2: Slowing Churn** - Churn decreasing month-over-month - Cohort degradation stopped - NRR improving toward 100% **Milestone 3: Runway Extended** - 12+ months runway (via fundraise or burn reduction) - Clear path to next milestone --- ### What Success Looks Like (Day 90) **Metrics:** - Runway: ___ months → 12+ months ✅ - LTV:CAC: ___:1 → >2:1 ✅ - Churn: ___% → reduced by 30% ✅ - NRR: ___% → improving toward 100% **Position:** - Out of crisis mode - Stable foundation to rebuild growth - Clear plan for next 6-12 months --- ### What to Avoid **Don't:** - Try to grow your way out of this (fix unit economics first) - Ignore the data (hope is not a strategy) - Scale before you fix retention (accelerates failure) - Wait until runway <3 months to fundraise (too late) **Do:** - Focus ruthlessly on retention and unit economics - Cut costs to extend runway - Be honest with board/investors about problems - Move fast (you don't have time to waste)" --- #### Diagnostic Pattern 4: Critical Health (Existential Crisis) **When:** - Runway <3 months OR - Multiple critical failures (LTV:CAC <1:1, massive churn, no path to profitability) **Output:** "## 🚨🚨 Overall Health: **Critical** (Existential Crisis) Your business is in survival mode. Immediate drastic action required. [Similar structure to Pattern 3, but more urgent tone, shorter timelines, more drastic measures] **Immediate Actions (This Week):** 1. Emergency board meeting 2. Fundraise immediately OR cut burn 50%+ 3. Stop all non-essential spend 4. Fix top 1-2 critical issues (runway, unit economics)" --- ## Examples See `examples/` folder. Mini examples below: ### Example 1: Healthy Growth-Stage SaaS **Metrics:** - ARR: $20M, Growth: 60% YoY - NRR: 115%, Churn: 2.5% - LTV:CAC: 4:1, Payback: 10 months - Rule of 40: 50, Runway: 18 months **Diagnosis:** Healthy. Scale aggressively. --- ### Example 2: Moderate Health (Retention Issue) **Metrics:** - ARR: $15M, Growth: 40% YoY - NRR: 95%, Churn: 5% - LTV:CAC: 3.5:1, Payback: 12 months - Rule of 40: 38, Runway: 12 months **Diagnosis:** Moderate. Fix retention before scaling further. --- ### Example 3: Concerning (Multiple Issues) **Metrics:** - ARR: $8M, Growth: 25% YoY (slowing) - NRR: 88%, Churn: 7% (increasing) - LTV:CAC: 1.8:1, Payback: 20 months - Rule of 40: 15, Runway: 8 months **Diagnosis:** Concerning. Urgent action on retention and unit economics required. --- ## Common Pitfalls ### Pitfall 1: Celebrating Single Metrics **Symptom:** "Revenue growing 50%!" (ignoring burn, churn, unit economics) **Consequence:** Unsustainable growth. Scaling broken model. **Fix:** Look at all four dimensions together. --- ### Pitfall 2: Ignoring Stage-Specific Benchmarks **Symptom:** "We're not profitable yet, is that bad?" (early-stage company) **Consequence:** Misplaced worry. Early-stage should optimize for growth and unit economics, not profitability. **Fix:** Use stage-appropriate benchmarks. --- ### Pitfall 3: Focusing on Lagging Indicators Only **Symptom:** "Churn is 5%, let's watch it" **Consequence:** By the time lagging indicators (churn, NRR) show problems, it's late. **Fix:** Track leading indicators (usage, engagement, onboarding completion). --- ### Pitfall 4: Not Acting on Red Flags **Symptom:** "NRR <100% for 3 quarters, but we'll fix it eventually" **Consequence:** Problems compound. Becomes crisis. **Fix:** Set clear timelines. If metric doesn't improve in X time, escalate. --- ### Pitfall 5: Trying to Fix Everything at Once **Symptom:** "Let's improve growth, retention, CAC, and efficiency simultaneously" **Consequence:** Resources spread thin. Nothing improves. **Fix:** Prioritize top 1-3 issues. Fix sequentially. --- ## References ### Related Skills - `saas-revenue-growth-metrics` — Detailed growth and retention metrics - `saas-economics-efficiency-metrics` — Detailed unit economics and capital efficiency - `finance-metrics-quickref` — Fast lookup for all metrics and benchmarks - `feature-investment-advisor` — Uses health diagnostic to inform feature priorities - `acquisition-channel-advisor` — Uses health diagnostic to inform channel priorities - `finance-based-pricing-advisor` — Uses health diagnostic to inform pricing decisions ### External Frameworks - **Bessemer Venture Partners:** "SaaS Metrics 2.0" — Comprehensive benchmarks - **David Skok:** "SaaS Metrics" — Unit economics benchmarks - **OpenView Partners:** SaaS benchmarking reports - **Battery Ventures:** "State of SaaS" annual report ### Provenance - Adapted from `research/finance/Finance_QuickRef.md` (Red flags table) - Decision frameworks from `research/finance/Finance_For_PMs.Putting_It_Together_Synthesis.md` - Benchmarks from `research/finance/Finance for Product Managers.md`