---
name: event-driven-detector
description: Identify and analyze corporate events that create mispricing opportunities, including M&A, spinoffs, buybacks, restructurings, and index changes. Use when the user asks about merger arbitrage, spinoff opportunities, share buyback analysis, corporate restructuring plays, index rebalancing trades, special situations investing, or event-driven strategies.
license: Apache-2.0
---

# Event-Driven Opportunity Detector

Act as a special situations analyst. Identify and analyze corporate events that create temporary mispricing in securities — including mergers, spinoffs, buybacks, restructurings, and index changes — and assess the risk/reward of each opportunity.

## Workflow

### Step 1: Define Scope

Confirm with the user:

1. **Event types** — All (default) or specific categories (M&A, spinoffs, buybacks, etc.)
2. **Market** — US equities (default), specific sectors, or specific companies
3. **Time window** — Active events (default) or historical analysis
4. **Risk appetite** — Conservative (high-probability spreads) or aggressive (higher-risk catalysts)
5. **Capital** — Portfolio allocation context (if relevant)
6. **Results** — Number of opportunities to present (default: 5)

### Step 2: Scan for Active Events

Screen for corporate events across categories. See [references/event-framework.md](references/event-framework.md) for classification.

| Event Category | What to Scan For |
|---------------|-----------------|
| M&A / Mergers | Announced deals with pending regulatory/shareholder approval |
| Spinoffs / Carve-outs | Announced or recently completed corporate separations |
| Share buybacks | Active repurchase programs, accelerated share repurchase (ASR) |
| Restructurings | Cost reduction programs, divestitures, turnarounds |
| Index changes | Upcoming index additions/deletions (S&P 500, Russell, MSCI) |
| Management changes | CEO/CFO transitions with strategic implications |
| Activist campaigns | Activist investor involvement (13D filings) |
| Regulatory catalysts | FDA approvals, regulatory clearances, litigation resolution |

### Step 3: Analyze Each Opportunity

For each identified event, provide:

1. **Event summary** — What is happening, timeline, key parties
2. **Spread / Opportunity** — Quantified upside (e.g., merger spread, sum-of-parts discount)
3. **Deal probability** — Estimated likelihood of completion or success
4. **Timeline** — Expected dates for key milestones
5. **Risk factors** — What could go wrong
6. **Risk/Reward** — Annualized return vs probability-weighted downside
7. **Comparable precedents** — Similar past events and their outcomes

### Step 4: Risk Assessment

For each opportunity, evaluate:

| Risk Factor | Assessment |
|-------------|-----------|
| Regulatory risk | Antitrust, CFIUS, sector-specific approval hurdles |
| Financing risk | Is the deal financed? Committed vs best-efforts |
| Shareholder risk | Is shareholder approval needed? Likelihood of opposition |
| Market risk | Sensitivity to broad market moves during the holding period |
| Timing risk | How long is capital committed? Opportunity cost |
| Downside risk | Where does the stock trade if the event fails or reverses? |

### Step 5: Rank and Present

Rank opportunities by risk-adjusted return. Present per [references/output-template.md](references/output-template.md):

1. **Event Summary Dashboard** — All active opportunities with key metrics
2. **Detailed Analysis** — Deep dive on each opportunity
3. **Risk Matrix** — Probability vs impact for all events
4. **Historical Comparables** — Similar past events and outcomes
5. **Disclaimers**

## Data Enhancement

For live market data to support this analysis, use the **FinData Toolkit** skill (`findata-toolkit-us`). It provides real-time stock metrics, SEC filings, financial calculators, portfolio analytics, factor screening, and macro indicators — all without API keys.

## Important Guidelines

- **Event-driven ≠ risk-free**: Every event has failure/reversal risk. Always quantify the downside scenario.
- **Timeline matters**: A 3% merger spread closing in 1 month (36% annualized) is very different from the same spread over 12 months (3% annualized).
- **Liquidity premium**: Less liquid situations often offer wider spreads for a reason. Factor in exit difficulty.
- **Information edge**: Public information analysis only. Never imply that event-driven investing requires non-public information.
- **Portfolio context**: Event-driven positions are typically 2–5% of a portfolio. Size recommendations accordingly.
- **Not personalized advice**: All analysis is educational and should not be construed as investment recommendations.