--- name: stock-evaluator-v3 description: Comprehensive evaluation of potential stock investments combining valuation analysis, fundamental research, technical assessment, and clear buy/hold/sell recommendations. Use when the user asks about buying a stock, evaluating investment opportunities, analyzing watchlist candidates, or requests stock recommendations. Provides specific entry prices, position sizing, and conviction ratings. --- # Stock Evaluator (Enhanced) ## ⚠️ CRITICAL: MANDATORY DELIVERABLES CHECKLIST Every analysis MUST include ALL of these: - ☐ **Technical Analysis** (price action, indicators, key levels, Ichimoku Cloud) - ☐ **Fundamental Analysis** (business, financials, competitive position) - ☐ **Advanced Financial Metrics** (F-Score, Z-Score, M-Score, Max Drawdown, Value Trap Score) - ☐ **Investor Persona Scores** (8 legendary investor frameworks) - ☐ **Valuation Assessment** (multiple methods with margin of safety) - ☐ **Bull vs. Bear Case** (both sides with balance assessment) - ☐ **Clear Recommendation** (BUY / HOLD / SELL with conviction rating) - ☐ **Alternative Candidates** (if SELL: provide 3-5 better alternatives) - ☐ **Enhanced Quant-Style Dashboard** (React dashboard with 60+ metrics, Ichimoku, investor personas, TOP NEWS, and key notes) **If you cannot complete any item, STOP and ask for clarification.** --- ## ⚠️ CRITICAL: DATA INTEGRITY RULES ### ZERO FABRICATION POLICY **NEVER fabricate, estimate, or hallucinate ANY numeric data point.** Every metric in the dashboard MUST come from: 1. A web search result with a cited source 2. Company filings (10-K, 10-Q, earnings reports) 3. Official financial data providers **If data cannot be found → Use "N/A" or "--"** ### MANDATORY WEB SEARCHES (minimum per analysis) You MUST perform these searches before populating the dashboard: | Search # | Query Template | Data Retrieved | |----------|---------------|----------------| | 1 | "[TICKER] stock price market cap P/E ratio" | Price, Market Cap, P/E | | 2 | "[TICKER] ROE ROA profit margin 2024 annual report" | Financial ratios | | 3 | "[TICKER] revenue growth earnings growth FY2024" | Growth rates (REPORTED) | | 4 | "[TICKER] Piotroski F-Score" | F-Score (or calculate) | | 5 | "[TICKER] insider trading SEC Form 4 2025" | Insider buys/sells | | 6 | "[TICKER] short interest percentage float" | Short interest | | 7 | "[TICKER] RSI MACD 50-day 200-day moving average beta volatility" | Technical indicators | | 8 | "[TICKER] analyst price target consensus" | Analyst targets | ### DATA SOURCE HIERARCHY Use sources in this priority order: 1. **Official company filings** (SEC EDGAR, company investor relations) 2. **Exchange data** (NYSE, NASDAQ, LSE official) 3. **Verified financial data** (Yahoo Finance, Google Finance, MarketWatch) 4. **SEC Form 4** (for insider trading ONLY) 5. **FINRA/exchange** (for short interest ONLY) ### PROHIBITED - Using training knowledge for ANY specific current numbers - Analyst reports (per user preference) - Estimates without sourcing - "Common knowledge" assumptions ### HANDLING UNAVAILABLE DATA | Situation | Action | Display | |-----------|--------|---------| | Metric not found after searching | Display "N/A" | `value: "N/A"` | | Data is outdated (>1 year old) | Note the date | `value: "15.2% (2023)"` | | Conflicting sources | Use most authoritative | Note in analysis | | Calculated metric (F-Score) | Show calculation | Explain in text | | Insider data unavailable | Show "N/A" | `insBuys: "N/A"` | **CRITICAL: Zero means "zero occurred" - NEVER substitute zeros for missing data.** --- ## STANDARDIZED METRIC LABELS Use these EXACT labels in the dashboard (matches reference screenshots): ### Row 1: PRICE & VALUATION | FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE | Label | Notes | |-------|-------| | Price: | $XX.XX or €XX.XX | | Market Cap: | $XXB or €XXB | | Trailing P/E: | XX.XX | | Forward P/E: | XX.XX | | Subsector P/E: | XX.XX or N/A | | PEG (1Y): | X.XX with benchmark (<1) | | ROE: | XX.XX% with benchmark (>20%) | | ROA: | XX.XX% with benchmark (>10%) | | Profit Margin: | XX.XX% with benchmark (>20%) | | Operative Margin: | XX.XX% with benchmark (>20%) - NOTE: "Operative" not "Operating" | | Gross Margin: | XX.XX% with benchmark (>40%) | | ROIC: | XX.X% with benchmark (>15%) | ### Row 2: GROWTH METRICS | RISK INDICATORS | Label | Notes | |-------|-------| | Revenue (YoY): | XX.XX% with benchmark (>10%) - REPORTED only | | Earning (YoY): | XX.XX% with benchmark (>0%) - REPORTED only | | EPS (TTM): | $X.XX | | Forward EPS: | $X.XX | | Growth Rates: | Capped: X.X% / Uncapped: X.X% | | Analyst Target: | $XX.XX | | CRS (0-1): | X.XX with benchmark (Medium) | | Debt/Equity (mrq): | X.XX with benchmark (0.5-1) | | Piotroski F: | X with benchmark (≥7) | | Altman Z: | X.XX with benchmark (>3) | | Beneish M: | X.XX with benchmark (<-1.78) | | Value Trap: | XX (Label) | ### Row 3: LIQUIDITY & FREE CASH FLOW | INSIDER & SENTIMENT & CLASS | Label | Notes | |-------|-------| | Current Ratio: | X.XX with benchmark (1-2) | | Cash: | $X.XB | | Debt: | $X.XB or N/A | | FCF Growth 5Y: | XX.X% with benchmark (>5%) | | FCF Yield: | X.XX% with benchmark (>4%) | | FCF Margin: | XX.XX% with benchmark (>15%) | | Payout Ratio: | XX.XX% with benchmark (<50%) | | Buys (12M): | X - from SEC Form 4 or N/A | | Sells (12M): | X - from SEC Form 4 or N/A | | Net Shares (12M): | +/-XXK - from SEC Form 4 or N/A | | Short Int (%): | X.X% | | Sentiment / Articles: | +X.XXX / XX (Positive/Negative) | | Stock: [Type] + Div Yield: | Combined: "Stock: Growth" + "Div Yield: X.XX%" | | Sector/Industry: | Combined: "Sector / Industry" | ### Row 4: QUALITY SCORES | MOAT & OTHER | Label | Notes | |-------|-------| | CQVS: | XX.XX with benchmark range | | Label: | Strong/Moderate/Weak | | Valuation: | XX.XX | | Quality: | XX.XX | | Strength: | XX.XX | | Integrity: | XX.XX | | Buffett Moat: | X with benchmark (4-7) | | Greenblatt (MF): | EY: X.X% / ROC: X.X% or N/A | | Beta: + Vol 1Y: | Combined: "Beta: X.XX" + "Vol 1Y: XX.X%" | | Earnings Predict.: | XX.X% with benchmark (>80%) | | Drawdown (5Y): | -XX.X% with label (Low/Mid/High) | | Completeness: + Data Quality: | Combined: "XX.X%" + "High/Medium/Low" | --- ## STANDARDIZED BENCHMARKS (Single Source of Truth) Use these EXACT thresholds for color coding: | Metric | Green (Good) | Yellow (Neutral) | Red (Warning) | |--------|--------------|------------------|---------------| | **ROE** | >20% | 10-20% | <10% | | **ROA** | >10% | 5-10% | <5% | | **Profit Margin** | >20% | 10-20% | <10% | | **Operative Margin** | >20% | 10-20% | <10% | | **Gross Margin** | >40% | 25-40% | <25% | | **ROIC** | >15% | 8-15% | <8% | | **Debt/Equity** | <1 | 1-2 | >2 | | **Current Ratio** | 1-2 | 0.5-1 or 2-3 | <0.5 or >3 | | **Piotroski F** | ≥7 | 4-6 | ≤3 | | **Altman Z** | >2.99 | 1.81-2.99 | <1.81 | | **Beneish M** | <-2.22 | -2.22 to -1.78 | >-1.78 | | **PEG (1Y)** | <1 | 1-2 | >2 | | **RSI (14)** | 30-50 | 50-70 | >70 or <30 | | **Short Interest** | <5% | 5-10% | >10% | | **FCF Yield** | >5% | 2-5% | <2% | | **FCF Margin** | >15% | 10-15% | <10% | | **Dividend Yield** | >2% | 1-2% | <1% or >8% | | **Value Trap** | 0-39 | 40-59 | 60-100 | | **Max Drawdown** | >-30% | -30% to -50% | <-50% | | **Revenue Growth** | >10% | 0-10% | <0% | | **Earnings Growth** | >0% | -10% to 0% | <-10% | --- ## Overview This skill provides institutional-grade evaluation of potential stock investments. Unlike portfolio analysis which reviews existing positions, this skill evaluates stocks you're **considering buying** or **deciding whether to purchase**. The evaluation answers: - **Should I buy this stock?** - **At what price should I enter?** - **How much should I allocate?** - **What's my upside and downside?** - **When should I sell?** ### Default Currency: € (Euro) All monetary values in the dashboard should be displayed in **Euro (€)** as the default currency: - Price: €42.13 - Market Cap: €78.3B - Analyst Target: €56.45 - Entry/Stop/Target prices: €38, €35, €56 - EPS values: €1.39, €1.91 ### IMPORTANT: Use REPORTED Growth Rates For the dashboard metrics **"Rev Growth"** and **"Earn Growth"**: - **USE REPORTED GROWTH** - not underlying, adjusted, or organic figures - Reported figures reflect actual GAAP/IFRS numbers including FX, acquisitions, disposals - This provides a more accurate picture of what investors actually received - Example: If underlying growth is 7% but reported is 2.2%, use **2.2%** - Same for earnings: Use reported EPS growth, not adjusted EPS growth ## Core Purpose **Stock Evaluator** is for: - ✅ Evaluating potential investments BEFORE buying - ✅ Analyzing watchlist candidates - ✅ Getting buy/hold/sell recommendations with specific prices - ✅ Comparing multiple investment opportunities - ✅ Finding better alternatives to current consideration **NOT for:** - ❌ Reviewing existing portfolio positions (use Portfolio Analyst skill) - ❌ General stock market questions - ❌ Stock screening or discovery from scratch - ❌ Options, derivatives, or crypto analysis ## Evaluation Framework ### Five Pillars of Stock Evaluation **1. Valuation Assessment** - Is the stock undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued? - Multiple valuation methods (DCF, relative, Peter Lynch, asset-based) - Margin of safety requirement (15-30%) - Fair value estimate with confidence range **2. Quality Analysis** - Business model strength and competitive moat - Financial health and trends (5-10 year view) - Management quality and capital allocation - Industry position and competitive advantages **3. Timing Assessment** - Technical setup and entry points - Near-term catalysts and events - Market sentiment and positioning - Optimal entry price range **4. Position Sizing** - Allocation recommendation (% of portfolio) - Based on conviction, risk, and diversification - Maximum allocation limits - Risk-adjusted sizing **5. Conviction Rating** - **Strong Buy**: High conviction, clear undervaluation, low risk - **Buy**: Good opportunity, reasonable valuation, moderate risk - **Hold**: Fairly valued, no compelling reason to buy now - **Avoid**: Overvalued, significant risks, or better alternatives exist --- ## Value Trap Indicator ### What It Is A Value Trap is when a stock appears undervalued (low P/E, low P/B) but is actually cheap for valid fundamental reasons. The stock keeps declining despite appearing "cheap." ### Value Trap Score Calculation (0-100, LOWER = more genuine, HIGHER = more trap) **Components to evaluate (ADD points for trap indicators):** **1. Price Momentum (25 points max)** - 6-month price change vs market: If underperforming by >20%, ADD 15-25 points - 12-month price change: Sustained decline = ADD 10-20 points - If price momentum is POSITIVE: ADD 0 points **2. Earnings Quality (25 points max)** - EPS trend (3 years): Declining = ADD 10-25 points - Revenue trend: Declining = ADD 5-15 points - Margin trend: Compressing = ADD 5-10 points - If earnings quality is STRONG: ADD 0 points **3. Balance Sheet Health (25 points max)** - Debt levels increasing? ADD 5-15 points - Cash flow negative or declining? ADD 10-20 points - Working capital deteriorating? ADD 5-10 points - If balance sheet is HEALTHY: ADD 0 points **4. Valuation Context (25 points max)** - Is low multiple justified by declining fundamentals? ADD 10-25 points - Compare current fundamentals to when multiple was higher - If fundamentals justify valuation: ADD 0 points ### Scoring Formula ``` Value Trap Score = Momentum Penalty + Quality Penalty + Balance Sheet Penalty + Valuation Penalty ``` (Score ranges from 0 to 100, where 0 = definitely genuine value, 100 = definite value trap) ### Score Interpretation - **0-19**: Genuine Value (likely undervalued, fundamentals intact) - GREEN - **20-39**: Probably Genuine (minor concerns, monitor) - LIGHT GREEN - **40-59**: Caution Zone (mixed signals, proceed carefully) - YELLOW - **60-79**: Likely Trap (multiple red flags) - ORANGE - **80-100**: Strong Trap Signal (avoid) - RED ### Display Format ``` Value Trap: 21 (Genuine) ``` Color coding: green <40, yellow 40-60, red >60 --- ## Investor Persona Scores Score each stock against 8 famous investor philosophies (0-10 scale). This helps users understand what type of investor the stock suits. ### 1. Warren Buffett Score Based on "The Warren Buffett Way" - seeks durable competitive advantages **Key metrics weighted:** - ROE (>20%): 2 points - Profit margin (>15%): 2 points - Free cash flow positive & growing: 2 points - Moat strength (brand, pricing power): 2 points - Predictable earnings: 2 points **Buffett likes:** Predictable businesses, pricing power, low capex needs, consistent profitability ### 2. Charlie Munger Score Based on "Poor Charlie's Almanack" - mental latticework, inversion thinking **Focus on:** What could go WRONG (inversion principle) **Scoring:** Start at 10, subtract penalties: - High debt (D/E > 2): -3 points - Volatile earnings: -2 points - Poor management history: -2 points - No competitive moat: -2 points - Accounting red flags: -3 points ### 3. Ray Dalio Score Based on "Principles" - All-Weather portfolio, economic machine understanding **Key metrics:** - D/E ratio < 1: 2 points - Beta < 1: 2 points - Stable margins across cycles: 2 points - Low earnings volatility: 2 points - Recession resistance history: 2 points **Dalio likes:** Deleveraging plays, operational efficiency, cycle resilience ### 4. Peter Lynch Score Based on "One Up on Wall Street" - GARP (Growth at Reasonable Price) **Primary metric: PEG Ratio (P/E ÷ Growth Rate)** - PEG < 0.5: 10 points - PEG 0.5-1.0: 8 points - PEG 1.0-1.5: 6 points - PEG 1.5-2.0: 4 points - PEG > 2.0: 2 points **Adjustment factors:** - +1 if earnings growing consistently - +1 if business easy to understand - -1 if declining industry ### 5. Benjamin Graham Score Based on "The Intelligent Investor" - Margin of Safety **Graham criteria (2 points each, max 10):** - P/E < 15 - P/B < 1.5 - Current ratio > 2 - Positive earnings 10 years - Dividend paid 20+ years ### 6. Joel Greenblatt Score Based on "The Little Book That Beats the Market" - Magic Formula **Combines two rankings:** - Earnings Yield (EBIT/EV): Higher = better - Return on Capital (EBIT/Net Fixed Assets + Working Capital): Higher = better **Scoring:** Combined rank in top 10% = 10 points, scaled down ### 7. John Templeton Score Based on contrarian, global value investing **Key factors:** - Trading at multi-year lows: +3 points - Out of favor with analysts: +2 points - Strong fundamentals despite pessimism: +3 points - Global perspective (non-US opportunity): +2 points ### 8. George Soros Score Based on "The Alchemy of Finance" - Reflexivity **Key factors:** - Momentum and trend strength: 3 points - Macro tailwinds: 3 points - Market perception shifting: 2 points - Inflection point catalyst: 2 points **Soros likes:** Macro plays, reflexive situations, trend participation ### Display Format Show 8 badges around radar chart with scores and color coding: - Green (7-10): Strong fit - Yellow (4-6.9): Moderate fit - Red (0-3.9): Poor fit --- ## Enhanced Technical Analysis ### Ichimoku Cloud Analysis **Components to Calculate:** - **Tenkan-sen (Conversion Line):** (9-period high + 9-period low) / 2 - **Kijun-sen (Base Line):** (26-period high + 26-period low) / 2 - **Senkou Span A:** (Tenkan-sen + Kijun-sen) / 2, plotted 26 periods ahead - **Senkou Span B:** (52-period high + 52-period low) / 2, plotted 26 periods ahead - **Chikou Span (Lagging Span):** Current close plotted 26 periods back **Cloud (Kumo):** Area between Senkou Span A and B **Signals to Identify and Display:** - **TK Bullish Cross:** Tenkan-sen crosses above Kijun-sen (bullish) - mark with ◆ - **TK Bearish Cross:** Tenkan-sen crosses below Kijun-sen (bearish) - mark with ◆ - **Kumo Twist Bullish:** Cloud changes from red to green - mark with ◆ - **Kumo Twist Bearish:** Cloud changes from green to red - mark with ◆ - **Price vs Cloud:** Above cloud (bullish), Below cloud (bearish), In cloud (neutral) ### Dual PEG Ratios - **PEG (1Y):** P/E ÷ 1-Year Forward Growth Estimate - **PEG (5Y):** P/E ÷ 5-Year Historical Growth Rate - Both provide different perspectives on growth valuation ### FCF Margin - **Formula:** Free Cash Flow / Revenue × 100 - **Benchmark:** >15% is excellent, >10% is good - Shows cash generation efficiency relative to sales ### News Sentiment & Short Interest - **News Sentiment:** -1 to +1 scale based on recent article sentiment - **Short Interest:** % of float sold short (>10% = high, <5% = low) - Both indicate market sentiment and potential squeeze/reversal --- ## Fundamental Analysis Process ### 1. Business Understanding (Always First) **What to Analyze:** - What does the company do? (products, services, business model) - Revenue sources and breakdown - Target customers and markets - Competitive advantages (moat sources) - Market position and share - Industry dynamics and trends **Management Evaluation:** - CEO background, tenure, track record - CFO and key executives - Capital allocation decisions (dividends, buybacks, acquisitions, R&D) - Management compensation alignment - Insider trading patterns (buying is bullish signal) - Leadership quality from earnings calls and letters **Competitive Position:** - Market share and trends - Key competitors (identify 3-5 direct peers) - What differentiates this company? - Sustainable competitive advantages? ### 2. Financial Analysis (5-10 Year View) **Research Process Order:** 1. **Latest 10-K first** - Understand current business and recent results 2. **Go back 5-10 years through historical 10-Ks** - Understand evolution 3. **Review last 2-3 years of 10-Qs** - Current trajectory 4. **Examine proxy statements** - Governance and compensation **Key Metrics to Analyze:** **Quality Benchmarks:** - ROE > 15% (return on equity) - Profit Margin > 15% - Gross Margin > 30% - Debt < Annual Revenue - Positive and growing Free Cash Flow - Revenue growth over 5 years (inflation-adjusted) **Trends to Assess:** - Revenue growth trajectory (accelerating/stable/decelerating?) - Margin expansion or contraction (why?) - Cash flow consistency and quality - Balance sheet strength (debt levels, liquidity) - Return on invested capital (ROIC) - Working capital management **Red Flags:** - Declining margins despite revenue growth - Negative or inconsistent free cash flow - Debt growing faster than cash generation - Losing market share - Chronic guidance misses - Accounting irregularities ### 3. Competitive Moat Assessment **Moat Strength: Wide / Narrow / None** **Evaluate Sources:** - **Network effects**: Product improves with more users? - **Brand loyalty**: Pricing power from brand strength? - **Switching costs**: Difficult/expensive to switch? - **Regulatory barriers**: Licenses, patents, regulations? - **Cost advantages**: Scale, technology, location? - **Intangible assets**: Patents, trademarks, proprietary data? **Moat Durability:** - How long can advantages be sustained? - What could erode the moat? - Is moat strengthening or weakening? **Peer Comparison:** Compare this company's moat vs. 3-5 direct competitors: - Market share trends - Profitability metrics (margins, ROE) - Growth rates - Financial strength ### 4. Advanced Financial Health Metrics Beyond basic quality metrics, calculate these advanced scores for deeper insight: **Piotroski F-Score (Financial Strength)** **Purpose**: 9-point score measuring financial strength across profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency. **Scoring (0-9, higher is better):** *Profitability (4 points):* - ROA > 0: +1 - Operating Cash Flow > 0: +1 - ROA improving YoY: +1 - Cash Flow from Operations > Net Income (quality of earnings): +1 *Leverage/Liquidity (3 points):* - Long-term debt decreasing YoY: +1 - Current ratio improving YoY: +1 - No new shares issued in past year: +1 *Operating Efficiency (2 points):* - Gross margin improving YoY: +1 - Asset turnover ratio improving YoY: +1 **Interpretation:** - **8-9**: Excellent financial health - **6-7**: Good financial health - **4-5**: Adequate financial health - **0-3**: Weak financial health **Altman Z-Score (Bankruptcy Risk)** **Purpose**: Predicts probability of bankruptcy within 2 years. **Formula (for public manufacturing companies):** Z = 1.2(A) + 1.4(B) + 3.3(C) + 0.6(D) + 1.0(E) Where: - A = Working Capital / Total Assets - B = Retained Earnings / Total Assets - C = EBIT / Total Assets - D = Market Cap / Total Liabilities - E = Sales / Total Assets **Interpretation:** - **Z > 2.99**: Safe Zone (low bankruptcy risk) - **Z 1.81-2.99**: Grey Zone (moderate risk) - **Z < 1.81**: Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk) **Note**: Adjust for non-manufacturing companies (different coefficients). **Beneish M-Score (Earnings Manipulation Detection)** **Purpose**: Identifies likelihood of earnings manipulation. **Key Indicators (simplified approach):** - Days Sales Outstanding Index (increasing = warning) - Gross Margin Index (declining = warning) - Asset Quality Index (increasing = warning) - Sales Growth Index (excessive growth = warning) - Depreciation Index (declining = warning) - SG&A Index (disproportionate change = warning) - Leverage Index (increasing = warning) - Total Accruals to Total Assets (high = warning) **Interpretation:** - **M-Score > -1.78**: Likely manipulator (RED FLAG) - **M-Score < -1.78**: Unlikely manipulator (clean) **Practical Check (if full M-Score unavailable):** - Are accruals consistently high relative to cash flow? - Is DSO rising faster than revenue? - Are margins declining with revenue growth? - Any accounting restatements or auditor changes? **Max Drawdown (5-Year)** **Purpose**: Measures largest peak-to-trough price decline. **Calculation:** - Identify highest price in past 5 years - Find lowest subsequent price before recovery - Max Drawdown % = (Low - High) / High × 100 **Interpretation:** - **0-20%**: Low volatility (defensive stock) - **20-40%**: Moderate volatility (typical stock) - **40-60%**: High volatility (cyclical/growth) - **>60%**: Extreme volatility (speculative) **Consolidated Scores** **Strength Score (0-100):** Composite of: - Financial metrics (F-Score contribution) - Profitability (ROE, margins) - Growth rates - Market position **Integrity Score (0-100):** Composite of: - M-Score (earnings quality) - Cash flow vs. earnings alignment - Accounting practices - Management transparency **Predictability Score (0-100):** Composite of: - Revenue consistency (low volatility) - Earnings consistency - Business model stability - Cyclicality assessment **Data Quality Score (0-100):** - Completeness of financial data - Recency of filings - Auditor quality - Disclosure transparency ### 5. Risk Analysis **Company-Specific Risks:** - Execution risk (can management deliver?) - Competition risk (share loss, new entrants) - Product concentration (single product dependency) - Customer concentration (few large customers) - Key person risk (CEO dependency) - Financial distress risk (Z-Score assessment) - Earnings quality risk (M-Score assessment) **Industry Risks:** - Disruption (technology or business model) - Cyclicality (economic sensitivity) - Regulation (policy changes) - Commoditization (pricing power erosion) - Structural decline (secular headwinds) **Macro Risks:** - Economic (recession, inflation, rates) - Geopolitical (trade wars, conflicts) - Currency (FX exposure) - Market (valuation levels, sentiment) **Overall Risk Level: Low / Moderate / High** **Consolidated Risk Score:** (0-1 scale, lower is better) - Incorporates: Z-Score, volatility, leverage, earnings quality - <0.30: Low Risk - 0.30-0.60: Moderate Risk - >0.60: High Risk --- ## Valuation Assessment Use **multiple valuation methods** - synthesize into fair value estimate. ### Required Valuation Methods **1. DCF Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)** - Project free cash flows (5-10 years) - Apply appropriate discount rate (WACC) - Calculate terminal value - Include margin of safety: 15-30% - Sensitivity analysis with different assumptions **2. Relative Valuation** - Compare to 3-5 direct peer companies - Key multiples: P/E, EV/EBITDA, Price/Sales, Price/Book - Adjust for growth differentials - Consider industry-specific multiples - Use both current and historical peer averages **3. Peter Lynch Fair Value** - Growth-at-reasonable-price framework - Compare P/E to growth rate (PEG ratio) - Fair value when P/E ≈ growth rate - Adjust for quality factors **4. Asset-Based (When Applicable)** - For REITs, financials, asset-heavy companies - Book value or replacement cost - Net asset value calculations ### Valuation Synthesis **Fair Value Estimate: €X.XX** Weight each method appropriately: - DCF: 40% (if reliable cash flows) - Relative: 30% (peer comparison) - Peter Lynch: 30% (growth-adjusted) **Margin of Safety:** - **Current Price vs. Fair Value**: X% discount/premium - **Required**: Minimum 15% margin of safety - **Adequate**: 15-30% margin of safety - **Excellent**: >30% margin of safety **Valuation Conclusion:** - **UNDERVALUED**: >15% below fair value (buy opportunity) - **FAIRLY VALUED**: Within ±15% of fair value (hold) - **OVERVALUED**: >15% above fair value (avoid/sell) --- ## Technical Analysis (Entry Timing) Focus on identifying optimal entry points, not full technical analysis. ### Key Technical Elements **1. Price Action (Last 30-60 Days)** - Current trend: Uptrend / Downtrend / Range-bound - Recent price pattern - Volume trends (increasing on rallies?) - Momentum assessment **2. Key Levels** - **Support levels**: Where buying interest emerges - Primary support: €X.XX - Secondary support: €X.XX - **Resistance levels**: Where selling pressure increases - Primary resistance: €X.XX - Secondary resistance: €X.XX **3. Technical Indicators** - **RSI** (Relative Strength Index): - >70 = Overbought (may pullback) - <30 = Oversold (potential bounce) - 40-60 = Neutral - **MACD** (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): - Bullish crossover / Bearish crossover / Neutral - Momentum accelerating or decelerating? - **Moving Averages**: - 50-day MA: €X.XX (price above/below?) - 200-day MA: €X.XX (trend indicator) **4. Entry Assessment** - **Technical Setup**: Bullish / Neutral / Bearish - **Optimal Entry**: Wait for pullback to support / Buy at market / Wait for breakout - **Entry Price Range**: €X.XX - €X.XX - **Avoid Above**: €X.XX (poor risk/reward) --- ## Bull vs. Bear Case Analysis **MANDATORY**: Every analysis must present both sides fairly. ### Bull Case (Optimistic Scenario) **Potential Upside: +X% to €X.XX** 1. [Key bull argument 1 with specific evidence] 2. [Key bull argument 2 with specific evidence] 3. [Key bull argument 3 with specific evidence] **For this to play out:** - [Required condition 1] - [Required condition 2] ### Bear Case (Pessimistic Scenario) **Potential Downside: -X% to €X.XX** 1. [Key bear argument 1 with specific evidence] 2. [Key bear argument 2 with specific evidence] 3. [Key bear argument 3 with specific evidence] **This happens if:** - [Risk trigger 1] - [Risk trigger 2] ### Balance Assessment **Which case is more probable: [Bull / Bear / Balanced]** [Explanation of why one case is more likely, considering: - Quality of evidence for each side - Historical precedent - Management track record - Industry dynamics - Current valuation] --- ## Investment Recommendation Structure ### BUY Recommendation Criteria - Fair value >15% above current price (adequate margin of safety) - Strong or improving fundamentals - Reasonable or bullish technical setup - Identifiable catalysts - Acceptable risk level - Conviction: Strong Buy or Buy ### HOLD Recommendation Criteria - Fair value within ±15% of current price - Stable fundamentals, no compelling catalyst - Better opportunities may exist elsewhere - Wait for better entry price - Conviction: Hold ### SELL/AVOID Recommendation Criteria - Fair value <-15% below current price (overvalued) - Deteriorating fundamentals - Significant risks - Better alternatives available - Must provide 3-5 alternative candidates - Conviction: Avoid --- ## Position Sizing Framework **Allocation recommendation based on:** **Conviction + Risk = Position Size** **Strong Buy (High Conviction, Low Risk):** - Position size: 5-8% of portfolio - Maximum: 10% **Buy (Moderate Conviction, Moderate Risk):** - Position size: 3-5% of portfolio - Maximum: 7% **Speculative/High Risk:** - Position size: 1-3% of portfolio - Maximum: 5% **Considerations:** - Diversification needs (avoid sector concentration) - Correlation with existing holdings - Overall portfolio risk - Liquidity requirements - User's risk tolerance (from project context) --- ## Entry and Exit Strategy ### Entry Strategy **NO scale-in strategies** - recommend single entry approach: **If BUY:** - **Ideal Entry Price: €X.XX - €X.XX** (optimal range) - **Maximum Buy Price: €X.XX** (above this, risk/reward unfavorable) - **Approach:** - "Buy now at market" (if currently at good price) - "Wait for pullback to €X.XX support" (if extended) - "Buy on break above €X.XX" (if breakout setup) - "Don't buy above €X.XX" (if overvalued) ### Exit Strategy **Price Target (12-month):** €X.XX (+X% upside) - Conservative: €X.XX - Base case: €X.XX - Optimistic: €X.XX **Stop Loss:** €X.XX (-X% maximum loss) - Technical stop: Below key support - Fundamental stop: If thesis breaks **Sell If (Thesis-Breaking Conditions):** 1. [Specific fundamental deterioration] 2. [Specific competitive threat] 3. [Specific valuation threshold] **Hold Duration:** - Expected timeframe: [6-12 months / 1-3 years / 3-5+ years] - Based on investment type (swing trade vs long-term hold) --- ## Catalyst Identification Identify specific events that could drive stock performance. **Near-Term (0-6 months):** - Upcoming earnings: [Date] - Product launches: [Event] - Regulatory decisions: [Expected timing] - Industry events: [Conference, data release] **Medium-Term (6-18 months):** - Market expansion plans - New product cycles - Margin expansion initiatives - Strategic partnerships **Long-Term (18+ months):** - Structural industry trends - Market share gains - Technological leadership - Business model evolution --- ## Key Analytical Constraints **Critical Principles:** 1. **No Press/News for Fundamental Analysis** - Use company filings only (10-K, 10-Q, 8-K, proxy) - Use earnings call transcripts - Do NOT rely on news articles or press releases - Exception: News for recent developments, but verify in filings 2. **Magnitude Over Precision** - Focus on stocks with good margin of safety (>15%) - Don't need perfect forecasts - Better to be approximately right than precisely wrong - Conservative assumptions better than optimistic 3. **Long-Term View** - Analyze 5-10 year trends, not just recent quarters - Temporary setbacks vs. structural problems - Sustainable competitive advantages matter most - Short-term noise vs. long-term signal 4. **Compare Apples to Apples** - Benchmark against 3-5 direct competitors - Not just broad market indices - Industry-specific metrics and norms - Adjust for company size and maturity 5. **Intellectual Honesty** - Acknowledge limitations and unknowns - Present both bull and bear cases fairly - Say "I don't know" when appropriate - Update views when evidence changes --- ## Output Template ```markdown # [SYMBOL] - [Company Name] Evaluation ## ⚠️ DELIVERABLES CHECKLIST ✓ ☑ Technical Analysis Complete ☑ Fundamental Analysis Complete ☑ Valuation Assessment Complete ☑ Bull vs. Bear Case Complete ☑ Clear Recommendation: **[BUY / HOLD / SELL]** ☑ Alternative Candidates: [If SELL, list 3-5 alternatives below] --- ## 📊 Executive Summary [2-3 sentence bottom-line assessment with key reasoning] **Recommendation: [BUY / HOLD / SELL]** **Conviction: [Strong Buy / Buy / Hold / Avoid]** --- ## 💰 Valuation Assessment **Fair Value Estimate: €X.XX** (Current: €X.XX) - **Margin of Safety: X%** [Adequate >15% / Insufficient <15%] - **Valuation: [UNDERVALUED / FAIRLY VALUED / OVERVALUED]** | Valuation Method | Fair Value | vs. Current | Weight | |-----------------|-----------|-------------|--------| | DCF Analysis | €X.XX | +X% | 40% | | Peer Relative | €X.XX | +X% | 30% | | Peter Lynch | €X.XX | +X% | 30% | | **Weighted Average** | **€X.XX** | **+X%** | **100%** | **Assumptions:** - DCF: [Key assumptions - growth rate, margins, discount rate] - Margin of safety applied: X% --- ## 🏢 Business & Competitive Analysis ### What They Do [2-3 paragraph business model summary: - Core products/services - Revenue breakdown - Target markets - Business model] ### Competitive Advantages **Moat Strength: [Wide / Narrow / None]** 1. **[Advantage 1]**: [Detailed explanation with evidence] 2. **[Advantage 2]**: [Detailed explanation with evidence] 3. **[Advantage 3]**: [Detailed explanation with evidence] **Moat Durability:** [How sustainable are these advantages? 3-5 years? 10+ years?] ### Management Quality Assessment **Overall Rating: [Excellent / Good / Adequate / Concerning]** - **CEO**: [Name] - [Background, tenure] - Track record: [Achievements/concerns] - Capital allocation: [Shareholder-friendly? Smart acquisitions?] - **CFO**: [Name] - [Financial stewardship] - **Insider Trading**: [Recent buying/selling activity] - **Key Insight**: [Overall management assessment] ### Competitive Position **Market Position:** - Market share: X% (#X in industry) - Share trend: [Gaining / Stable / Losing] **Key Competitors:** [List 3-5 direct peers] **Peer Comparison:** | Company | Mkt Cap | Revenue Growth | Profit Margin | ROE | P/E | Moat | |---------|---------|---------------|---------------|-----|-----|------| | [Target] | €XB | X% | X% | X% | X.X | [Rating] | | [Peer 1] | €XB | X% | X% | X% | X.X | [Rating] | | [Peer 2] | €XB | X% | X% | X.X | X.X | [Rating] | | [Peer 3] | €XB | X% | X% | X% | X.X | [Rating] | **Competitive Assessment:** [Is this the best company in the sector?] --- ## 📈 Financial Health Analysis ### Quality Metrics vs. Benchmarks | Metric | Current | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | 5Y Ago | Target | Status | |--------|---------|--------|--------|--------|--------|--------| | ROE | X% | X% | X% | X% | >15% | [✓/✗] | | Profit Margin | X% | X% | X% | X% | >15% | [✓/✗] | | Gross Margin | X% | X% | X% | X% | >30% | [✓/✗] | | Revenue Growth | X% | X% | X% | X% | >0% | [✓/✗] | | Debt/Revenue | X.X | X.X | X.X | X.X | <1.0 | [✓/✗] | | FCF | €XM | €XM | €XM | €XM | Positive | [✓/✗] | ### Advanced Financial Health Scores **Piotroski F-Score: X/9** [Excellent 8-9 / Good 6-7 / Adequate 4-5 / Weak 0-3] *Profitability:* X/4 - ROA positive: [✓/✗] - Operating CF positive: [✓/✗] - ROA improving: [✓/✗] - CF > Net Income: [✓/✗] *Leverage:* X/3 - Debt decreasing: [✓/✗] - Current ratio improving: [✓/✗] - No dilution: [✓/✗] *Efficiency:* X/2 - Margin improving: [✓/✗] - Turnover improving: [✓/✗] **Assessment:** [Detailed interpretation of F-Score] **Altman Z-Score: X.XX** [Safe >2.99 / Grey 1.81-2.99 / Distress <1.81] - **Bankruptcy Risk:** [Low / Moderate / High] - **Interpretation:** [Explanation of Z-Score and financial stability] **Beneish M-Score: X.XX** [Clean <-1.78 / Warning >-1.78] - **Earnings Quality:** [High / Moderate / Questionable] - **Red Flags:** [List any concerning indicators or state "None"] **Max Drawdown (5Y): -X%** [Low <20% / Moderate 20-40% / High 40-60% / Extreme >60%] - **Volatility Assessment:** [Low/Moderate/High volatility explanation] - **Peak price:** €X.XX ([Date]) - **Trough price:** €X.XX ([Date]) ### Consolidated Scores **Strength Score: X/100** (Financial power and market position) **Integrity Score: X/100** (Earnings quality and transparency) **Predictability Score: X/100** (Business consistency) **Data Quality Score: X/100** (Information completeness) **Overall Quality Rating: [Elite / Strong / Good / Adequate / Weak]** ### Financial Trends (5-10 Year View) **Revenue:** - [Trend description: growth rate, consistency, drivers] - [Any concerning patterns?] **Margins:** - Gross margin: [Expanding / Stable / Declining] - Operating margin: [Trend] - Net margin: [Trend] - Drivers: [Why are margins moving this way?] **Cash Flow:** - Operating cash flow: [Trend and quality] - Free cash flow: [Consistency, conversion] - Capital allocation: [Dividends, buybacks, capex, acquisitions] **Balance Sheet:** - Debt levels: [Conservative / Moderate / High] - Liquidity: [Strong / Adequate / Concerning] - Trend: [Strengthening / Stable / Weakening] ### 🚩 Red Flags [List any concerning trends or issues, or state "None identified"] --- ## 📉 Technical Analysis & Entry Timing ### Price Action (Last 30-60 Days) - **Current Price**: €X.XX - **52-Week Range**: €X.XX - €X.XX - **30-day Change**: [+/-X%] - **Trend**: [Uptrend / Downtrend / Range-bound] - **Volume**: [Increasing / Decreasing / Normal] ### Key Technical Levels **Support Levels:** - **Primary Support: €X.XX** - [Significance/reason] - **Secondary Support: €X.XX** - [Significance/reason] **Resistance Levels:** - **Primary Resistance: €X.XX** - [Significance/reason] - **Secondary Resistance: €X.XX** - [Significance/reason] ### Technical Indicators **RSI**: X.X [Overbought >70 / Neutral 30-70 / Oversold <30] **MACD**: [Bullish crossover / Bearish crossover / Neutral] - Interpretation: [Momentum assessment] **Moving Averages:** - 50-day MA: €X.XX - Price is [above/below] - 200-day MA: €X.XX - Price is [above/below] - Golden/Death Cross: [Any recent crossovers?] ### Entry Assessment **Technical Setup: [Bullish / Neutral / Bearish]** **Optimal Entry Strategy:** - [Buy now at market / Wait for pullback to €X.XX / Buy on breakout above €X.XX] - **Ideal Entry Range: €X.XX - €X.XX** - **Maximum Buy Price: €X.XX** (avoid above this) **Momentum: [Strong Bullish / Bullish / Neutral / Bearish / Strong Bearish]** --- ## ⚖️ Bull vs. Bear Case ### 🐂 Bull Case **Potential Upside: €X.XX (+X%)** 1. **[Bull Argument 1]**: [Specific evidence and reasoning] 2. **[Bull Argument 2]**: [Specific evidence and reasoning] 3. **[Bull Argument 3]**: [Specific evidence and reasoning] **For this to play out:** - [Required condition 1] - [Required condition 2] **Probability: [High / Moderate / Low]** ### 🐻 Bear Case **Potential Downside: €X.XX (-X%)** 1. **[Bear Argument 1]**: [Specific risk and reasoning] 2. **[Bear Argument 2]**: [Specific risk and reasoning] 3. **[Bear Argument 3]**: [Specific risk and reasoning] **This happens if:** - [Risk trigger 1] - [Risk trigger 2] **Probability: [High / Moderate / Low]** ### ⚖️ Balance Assessment **Which case is more probable: [Bull / Bear / Balanced]** [2-3 paragraph explanation of: - Weight of evidence for each side - Historical precedent - Management track record - Industry dynamics - Current valuation - Risk/reward assessment] --- ## ⚠️ Risk Analysis **Overall Risk Level: [Low / Moderate / High]** ### Key Risks **1. [Risk Category - e.g., Competition Risk]**: [Specific risk and potential impact. Probability: High/Medium/Low] **2. [Risk Category - e.g., Execution Risk]**: [Specific risk and potential impact. Probability: High/Medium/Low] **3. [Risk Category - e.g., Valuation Risk]**: [Specific risk and potential impact. Probability: High/Medium/Low] **4. [Risk Category - e.g., Macro Risk]**: [Specific risk and potential impact. Probability: High/Medium/Low] ### Risk Mitigation [How does the company/investment address these risks?] [What reduces the risk in this investment?] --- ## 🎯 Catalysts & Timeline ### Near-Term (0-6 months) - **[Date]**: [Specific catalyst - earnings, product launch, etc.] - **[Date]**: [Specific catalyst] ### Medium-Term (6-18 months) - [Expected development 1] - [Expected development 2] ### Long-Term (18+ months) - [Structural trend 1] - [Structural trend 2] **Expected Timeline to Target**: [6-12 months / 1-3 years / 3-5+ years] --- ## 💡 Investment Recommendation ### **RECOMMENDATION: [BUY / HOLD / SELL]** ### **Conviction: [Strong Buy / Buy / Hold / Avoid]** ### Rationale [2-3 paragraph synthesis of entire analysis: - Why this recommendation? - What makes it compelling (or not)? - How does valuation + fundamentals + technicals + catalysts = this conclusion? - What's the risk/reward?] --- ## 📍 Entry Strategy (if BUY) **Ideal Entry Price: €X.XX - €X.XX** - Reasoning: [Why this range?] **Maximum Acceptable Price: €X.XX** - Above this: Risk/reward unfavorable **Approach:** - [Buy now at market / Wait for pullback to €X.XX / Buy on breakout above €X.XX] - Reasoning: [Current technical setup justification] **DO NOT BUY IF:** - Price exceeds €X.XX without fundamental improvement - [Other specific condition] --- ## 🎯 Exit Strategy ### Price Targets (12-Month Horizon) - **Conservative**: €X.XX (+X%) - **Base Case**: €X.XX (+X%) - **Optimistic**: €X.XX (+X%) ### Stop Loss **Stop Loss: €X.XX (-X% maximum loss)** - Technical: Below €X.XX support - Fundamental: If [thesis-breaking condition] ### Sell Conditions (Thesis-Breaking) Exit position if any of these occur: 1. [Specific fundamental deterioration - e.g., "ROE drops below 10% for 2 consecutive quarters"] 2. [Specific competitive threat - e.g., "Loses >5% market share to competitor"] 3. [Specific valuation threshold - e.g., "Reaches €X.XX (>50% above fair value)"] ### Hold Duration **Expected Timeframe**: [6-12 months / 1-3 years / 3-5+ years] - Based on: [Investment type - swing trade vs. long-term hold] --- ## 📏 Position Sizing ### Recommended Allocation: X-X% of portfolio **Specific Recommendation: X%** **Rationale:** - Conviction level: [Strong Buy / Buy → drives size] - Risk level: [Low / Moderate / High → constrains size] - Diversification: [Sector exposure, correlation with existing holdings] - Liquidity: [Can exit position easily?] **Maximum Allocation: X%** - Risk management limit - Don't exceed even if highly convicted ### Sizing Guidelines Applied: - Strong Buy + Low Risk = 5-8% (max 10%) - Buy + Moderate Risk = 3-5% (max 7%) - Speculative + High Risk = 1-3% (max 5%) --- ## 🔑 Key Takeaways ### Top 3 Reasons to Invest 1. [Most compelling positive factor] 2. [Second most compelling positive factor] 3. [Third most compelling positive factor] ### Top 3 Concerns 1. [Biggest risk or concern] 2. [Second biggest risk or concern] 3. [Third biggest risk or concern] ### One-Sentence Investment Thesis [Single sentence capturing the complete investment case - why buy or avoid] --- ## 📚 Research Documentation **Sources Consulted:** - 10-K filings: [Fiscal years reviewed - e.g., FY2020-2024] - 10-Q filings: [Recent quarters - e.g., Q1-Q3 2025] - Earnings calls: [Dates reviewed] - Proxy statements: [Years reviewed] - Management letters: [Years reviewed] - Competitor analysis: [Companies benchmarked] **Analysis Depth:** - Historical period analyzed: [X years] - Peer companies compared: [Number and names] - Valuation methods used: [DCF, Relative, Peter Lynch, Asset-based] **Confidence Level: [High / Medium / Low]** - **Based on**: [Quality and completeness of available data] - **Gaps**: [Any areas where information is limited or unavailable] - **Limitations**: [Any constraints in the analysis] --- ## 🔄 Alternative Candidates (Required if SELL/AVOID) [If recommending SELL or AVOID, provide 3-5 better investment alternatives with brief rationale for each] ### Alternative 1: [Symbol] - [Company Name] **Why it's better**: [1-2 paragraph comparison] **Quick metrics**: [Valuation, growth, margins] ### Alternative 2: [Symbol] - [Company Name] **Why it's better**: [1-2 paragraph comparison] **Quick metrics**: [Valuation, growth, margins] ### Alternative 3: [Symbol] - [Company Name] **Why it's better**: [1-2 paragraph comparison] **Quick metrics**: [Valuation, growth, margins] [Continue for 4-5 alternatives if SELL recommendation] --- **Analysis Date**: [Current Date] **Next Review**: [Suggested review date based on catalysts or timeline] **Analyst**: Claude Stock Evaluator --- ## 📊 Quant-Style Dashboard **FINAL MANDATORY STEP**: Create a React artifact using the standardized quant-style dashboard template with: **Required Data to Populate:** - ✅ All 48 metrics across 8 sections (calculated above) - ✅ Historical price data (5 years, 6-12 points) - ✅ 1-year price + 6-month forecast (4-6 points) - ✅ MACD data (3-5 recent points) - ✅ RSI data (3-5 recent points) - ✅ Radar chart (12 metrics, normalized 0-100) - ✅ Bull case (target + 5 points) - ✅ Bear case (target + 5 points) - ✅ Entry/exit strategy (5 values) **Use the EXACT template code provided in the skill instructions above.** **DO NOT use placeholder values - populate with actual calculated data from this analysis.** [Create the React artifact here using the quant-style template] ``` --- ## Quant-Style Dashboard Artifact **MANDATORY**: After completing the full text analysis, create a React dashboard artifact using the standardized quant-style template format. ### Dashboard Template Structure The dashboard uses a specific institutional-grade format with: **1. Header Section** (Orange background) - Format: `TICKER - Company Name` **2. Eight Metric Sections** (2-column grid) | Left Column | Right Column | |-------------|--------------| | Price & Valuation (blue) | Financial Performance (green) | | Growth Metrics (emerald) | Risk Indicators (red) | | Liquidity & FCF (cyan) | Insider & Sentiment (purple) | | Quality Scores (orange) | Moat & Other (gray) | Each section: 6 metric boxes with values, labels, benchmarks, color coding **3. Charts Section** (3-column grid) - **Left**: Linear Price Chart + MACD - Price, Intrinsic Value, Market Value lines - 5-year historical data - MACD indicator below - **Center**: Radar Chart + 1-Year Forecast - 12-point radar (normalized 0-100) - Consolidated advice badge - 1-year price + 6-month forecast - **Right**: Log Price Chart + RSI - Log-scale price history - Intrinsic value comparison - RSI (14) indicator below **4. Key Notes Section** (Expandable accordion) - 3-column layout: Bull Case | Bear Case | Entry/Exit Strategy - Click to expand/collapse **5. Footer** - Analysis date, data sources, recommendation ### Required Metrics by Section **Price & Valuation** (6 metrics): - Price, Market Cap, Trailing P/E, Forward P/E, Subsector Typical P/E, PEG Ratio **Financial Performance** (6 metrics): - ROE, ROA, Profit Margin, Operating Margin, Gross Margin, ROIC **Growth Metrics** (6 metrics): - Revenue Growth (5Y), Earnings Growth, EPS (TTM), Forward EPS, Analyst Rec, Target Price **Risk Indicators** (6 metrics): - Debt/Equity, Consolidated Risk, F-Score, Z-Score, M-Score, Max Drawdown (5Y) **Liquidity & FCF** (6 metrics): - Current Ratio, Total Cash, Total Debt, FCF Growth 5Y, FCF Yield, Payout Ratio **Insider & Sentiment** (6 metrics): - Insider Buys (12M), Insider Sells (12M), Net Shares (12M), RSI (14D), Stock Type, Sector **Quality Scores** (6 metrics): - CQVS, Label, Valuation Score, Quality Score, Strength Score, Integrity Score **Moat & Other** (6 metrics): - Moat Score (0-10), Beta, Predictability, Data Quality, Completeness, Dividend Yield ### Radar Chart Metrics (12 points, normalized 0-100) 1. Revenue Growth (normalize: X% growth → scale to 100 for 20%+) 2. Operating Margin (normalize: X% → 100 for 30%+) 3. Gross Margin (normalize: X% → 100 for 60%+) 4. Profit Margin (normalize: X% → 100 for 25%+) 5. ROE (normalize: X% → 100 for 30%+) 6. Risk Score (inverse of consolidated risk: 100 - risk*100) 7. Beta Score (inverse: 100 for beta=0.5, 50 for beta=1.5, 0 for beta=2.5+) 8. P/Market Discount (100 = deeply undervalued, 50 = fair, 0 = overvalued) 9. Moat Score (moat rating * 10) 10. FCF Yield (X% → 100 for 8%+) 11. ROA (X% → 100 for 20%+) 12. Earnings Growth (X% → 100 for 25%+) ### Color Coding Rules ```javascript // Green (isGood: true) - Positive indicators ROE > 20%, ROA > 10%, Margins > 20%, ROIC > 15% Revenue Growth > 10%, Current Ratio 1-2, Z-Score > 3 M-Score < -1.78, FCF Growth > 0%, Payout < 50% F-Score >= 7, Quality >= 70, Strength >= 70 // Red (isGood: false) - Warning indicators Max Drawdown < -50%, Beta > 2, Consolidated Risk > 0.6 Predictability < 50%, F-Score <= 3, Z-Score < 1.81 M-Score > -1.78, Quality < 50 // Yellow (isGood: 'neutral') - Monitor F-Score 4-6, RSI 30-70, Moat 5-7, Quality 50-70 Beta 1.5-2.0, Predictability 50-70% ``` ### Complete Template Code Use this exact template structure: ```jsx import React, { useState } from 'react'; import { LineChart, Line, XAxis, YAxis, CartesianGrid, Tooltip, ResponsiveContainer, RadarChart, PolarGrid, PolarAngleAxis, PolarRadiusAxis, Radar, ReferenceLine, Area, ComposedChart, Scatter } from 'recharts'; const QuantDashboard = () => { const [showKeyNotes, setShowKeyNotes] = useState(false); // ============================================================ // POPULATE WITH STOCK-SPECIFIC DATA FROM ANALYSIS // ============================================================ const ticker = "TICKER"; // Replace const companyName = "Company Name"; // Replace const recommendation = "BUY"; // BUY, HOLD, SELL, SPECULATIVE BUY const analysisDate = "December 6, 2025"; // Current date const metrics = { // Price & Valuation - from analysis price: 100.00, marketCap: '€10B', trailingPE: 20.0, forwardPE: 18.0, subsectorTypicalPE: 25.0, peg1Y: 1.2, // NEW: 1-Year Forward PEG peg5Y: 2.5, // NEW: 5-Year PEG // Financial Performance - from 5-10 year analysis roe: 25.0, roa: 12.0, profitMargin: 20.0, opMargin: 25.0, grossMargin: 50.0, roic: 18.0, // Growth Metrics - from historical trends (USE REPORTED, not underlying) revGrowth: 15.0, // REPORTED revenue growth YoY earnGrowth: 20.0, // REPORTED earnings growth YoY epsTTM: 5.00, forwardEPS: 5.50, growthCapped: 10.0, // NEW: Capped sustainable growth estimate growthUncapped: 22.0, // NEW: Headline analyst growth estimate analystTarget: 120.00, // Risk Indicators - from advanced metrics section crs: 0.40, // Consolidated Risk Score (0-1 scale) debtEquity: 0.50, fScore: 7, // Piotroski F-Score zScore: 4.0, // Altman Z-Score mScore: -2.5, // Beneish M-Score valueTrapScore: 25, // NEW: 0-100, LOWER = genuine, HIGHER = trap valueTrapLabel: 'Genuine', // NEW: Genuine/Caution/Trap maxDrawdown: -30.0, // 5-year max drawdown % // Liquidity & FCF - from cash flow analysis currentRatio: 1.5, totalCash: '€2B', totalDebt: '€1B', fcfGrowth5Y: 12.0, // 5-year smoothed growth fcfYield: 5.0, fcfMargin: 18.5, // NEW: FCF / Revenue % payoutRatio: 30.0, // Insider & Sentiment - from SEC Form 4 or use "N/A" if unavailable insBuys: 0, // From SEC Form 4 - use actual count or "N/A" insSells: 0, // From SEC Form 4 - use actual count or "N/A" netShares: 'N/A', // From SEC Form 4 - use actual or "N/A" shortInterest: 2.5, // From FINRA/exchange - use actual or "N/A" newsSentiment: 0.25, // -1 to +1 scale newsArticleCount: 15, // Recent article count // Beta & Volatility beta: 1.0, // Stock beta vol1Y: 25.0, // 1-Year volatility % // Quality Scores - from consolidated scoring cqvs: 75.0, // Consolidated Quality & Valuation Score label: 'Quality Growth', // Elite/Compounder/Quality Growth/etc valuation: 70.0, // 0-100 quality: 80.0, // 0-100 strength: 75.0, // 0-100 integrity: 85.0, // 0-100 // Moat & Other buffettMoat: 8, // 0-10 scale (renamed from moat) greenblattEY: 6.5, // NEW: Earnings Yield % greenblattROC: 22.0, // NEW: Return on Capital % earningsPredict: 70, // Earnings Predictability 0-100 completeness: 85, // Data completeness 0-100 dataQuality: 'High', // High/Medium/Low divYield: 1.5, stockType: 'Growth', // Growth/Value/Cyclical/Defensive sector: 'Technology', industry: 'Software', // NEW: Investor Persona Scores (0-10 scale each) buffettScore: 7.5, // Durable competitive advantage seeker mungerScore: 6.8, // Inversion thinker, risk avoider dalioScore: 7.2, // All-weather, cycle resilient lynchScore: 8.0, // GARP - Growth at Reasonable Price grahamScore: 5.5, // Deep value, margin of safety greenblattScore: 6.0, // Magic Formula (EY + ROC) templetonScore: 4.5, // Contrarian, global value sorosScore: 3.0, // Reflexivity, macro trends // NEW: Valuation Lines for Charts marketValueCurrent: 95.00, intrinsicValueCurrent: 110.00, marketValueNextYear: 105.00, intrinsicValueNextYear: 120.00, unrestrictedMarketValueCurrent: 125.00, unrestrictedMarketValueNextYear: 140.00, // Valuation Assessment (for indicator below forecast) valuationPercent: 15, // Positive = undervalued, negative = overvalued valuationLabel: 'Undervalued', // Undervalued/Fairly Valued/Overvalued }; // TOP NEWS Headlines - Format: pipe-separated with dates at END in brackets const topNews = [ { headline: 'Company announces Q4 guidance above expectations', date: '05 Dec 2025' }, { headline: 'New product launch receives positive analyst coverage', date: '28 Nov 2025' }, { headline: 'Strategic partnership announced with major cloud provider', date: '15 Nov 2025' }, { headline: 'Q3 earnings beat estimates, revenue up 18% YoY', date: '02 Nov 2025' }, { headline: 'Management presents at investor conference, reaffirms outlook', date: '20 Oct 2025' }, ]; // Format TOP NEWS as pipe-separated string with dates at END const topNewsString = topNews.map(n => `${n.headline} [${n.date}]`).join(' | '); // Historical Price Data (10 years with multiple valuation lines) const priceHistory = [ { date: '2016', price: 25, totalReturn: 28, marketValueCurrent: 27, intrinsicValueCurrent: 30, marketValueNextYear: 29, intrinsicValueNextYear: 32, analystTarget: 30, unrestrictedCurrent: 28, unrestrictedNextYear: 31 }, { date: '2017', price: 35, totalReturn: 40, marketValueCurrent: 38, intrinsicValueCurrent: 42, marketValueNextYear: 40, intrinsicValueNextYear: 45, analystTarget: 42, unrestrictedCurrent: 40, unrestrictedNextYear: 44 }, { date: '2018', price: 45, totalReturn: 52, marketValueCurrent: 48, intrinsicValueCurrent: 55, marketValueNextYear: 52, intrinsicValueNextYear: 60, analystTarget: 55, unrestrictedCurrent: 52, unrestrictedNextYear: 58 }, { date: '2019', price: 55, totalReturn: 65, marketValueCurrent: 58, intrinsicValueCurrent: 68, marketValueNextYear: 62, intrinsicValueNextYear: 72, analystTarget: 65, unrestrictedCurrent: 65, unrestrictedNextYear: 72 }, { date: '2020', price: 50, totalReturn: 62, marketValueCurrent: 55, intrinsicValueCurrent: 65, marketValueNextYear: 60, intrinsicValueNextYear: 70, analystTarget: 62, unrestrictedCurrent: 62, unrestrictedNextYear: 70 }, { date: '2021', price: 75, totalReturn: 95, marketValueCurrent: 80, intrinsicValueCurrent: 90, marketValueNextYear: 85, intrinsicValueNextYear: 98, analystTarget: 90, unrestrictedCurrent: 92, unrestrictedNextYear: 105 }, { date: '2022', price: 65, totalReturn: 85, marketValueCurrent: 72, intrinsicValueCurrent: 85, marketValueNextYear: 78, intrinsicValueNextYear: 92, analystTarget: 82, unrestrictedCurrent: 85, unrestrictedNextYear: 95 }, { date: '2023', price: 80, totalReturn: 105, marketValueCurrent: 85, intrinsicValueCurrent: 100, marketValueNextYear: 92, intrinsicValueNextYear: 108, analystTarget: 98, unrestrictedCurrent: 100, unrestrictedNextYear: 115 }, { date: '2024', price: 95, totalReturn: 125, marketValueCurrent: 100, intrinsicValueCurrent: 115, marketValueNextYear: 108, intrinsicValueNextYear: 125, analystTarget: 115, unrestrictedCurrent: 120, unrestrictedNextYear: 135 }, { date: '2025', price: 100, totalReturn: 135, marketValueCurrent: 105, intrinsicValueCurrent: 120, marketValueNextYear: 115, intrinsicValueNextYear: 132, analystTarget: 125, unrestrictedCurrent: 130, unrestrictedNextYear: 145 }, ]; // 1 Year Price with 6-Month Forecast, MAs, and Bollinger Bands const oneYearData = [ { date: "Jan'25", price: 90, ma50: 88, ma200: 85, upperBand: 98, lowerBand: 82, forecast: null, ci95Upper: null, ci95Lower: null }, { date: "Mar'25", price: 88, ma50: 89, ma200: 86, upperBand: 96, lowerBand: 80, forecast: null, ci95Upper: null, ci95Lower: null }, { date: "May'25", price: 95, ma50: 91, ma200: 87, upperBand: 102, lowerBand: 84, forecast: null, ci95Upper: null, ci95Lower: null }, { date: "Jul'25", price: 92, ma50: 92, ma200: 88, upperBand: 100, lowerBand: 84, forecast: null, ci95Upper: null, ci95Lower: null }, { date: "Sep'25", price: 98, ma50: 94, ma200: 90, upperBand: 106, lowerBand: 86, forecast: null, ci95Upper: null, ci95Lower: null }, { date: "Nov'25", price: 100, ma50: 96, ma200: 92, upperBand: 108, lowerBand: 88, forecast: 100, ci95Upper: 108, ci95Lower: 92 }, { date: "Jan'26", price: null, ma50: null, ma200: null, upperBand: null, lowerBand: null, forecast: 108, ci95Upper: 120, ci95Lower: 96 }, { date: "Mar'26", price: null, ma50: null, ma200: null, upperBand: null, lowerBand: null, forecast: 115, ci95Upper: 130, ci95Lower: 100 }, ]; // NEW: Ichimoku Cloud Data (6-month view with signal markers) const ichimokuData = [ { date: 'Jun', price: 88, tenkan: 87, kijun: 85, senkouA: 84, senkouB: 82, chikou: 85, tkCrossMarker: null, kumoTwistMarker: null }, { date: 'Jul', price: 92, tenkan: 90, kijun: 87, senkouA: 86, senkouB: 84, chikou: 90, tkCrossMarker: 92, kumoTwistMarker: null }, // TK Bullish Cross { date: 'Aug', price: 95, tenkan: 93, kijun: 90, senkouA: 89, senkouB: 86, chikou: 93, tkCrossMarker: null, kumoTwistMarker: null }, { date: 'Sep', price: 98, tenkan: 96, kijun: 93, senkouA: 92, senkouB: 88, chikou: 96, tkCrossMarker: null, kumoTwistMarker: 92 }, // Kumo Twist Bullish { date: 'Oct', price: 96, tenkan: 97, kijun: 95, senkouA: 94, senkouB: 90, chikou: 94, tkCrossMarker: null, kumoTwistMarker: null }, { date: 'Nov', price: 100, tenkan: 98, kijun: 96, senkouA: 95, senkouB: 92, chikou: 98, tkCrossMarker: null, kumoTwistMarker: null }, ]; // NEW: Ichimoku Signals Summary const ichimokuSignals = { tkCross: 'TK Bullish Cross', kumoTwist: 'Kumo Twist Bullish', priceVsCloud: 'Above Cloud (Bullish)', }; // MACD Data (recent 6 months) const macdData = [ { date: 'Jun', macd: 0.5, signal: 0.3, histogram: 0.2 }, { date: 'Jul', macd: 1.2, signal: 0.6, histogram: 0.6 }, { date: 'Aug', macd: 1.5, signal: 1.0, histogram: 0.5 }, { date: 'Sep', macd: 1.8, signal: 1.3, histogram: 0.5 }, { date: 'Oct', macd: 1.2, signal: 1.4, histogram: -0.2 }, { date: 'Nov', macd: 0.8, signal: 1.2, histogram: -0.4 }, ]; // RSI Data (recent 6 months) const rsiData = [ { date: 'Jun', rsi: 45 }, { date: 'Jul', rsi: 55 }, { date: 'Aug', rsi: 62 }, { date: 'Sep', rsi: 68 }, { date: 'Oct', rsi: 58 }, { date: 'Nov', rsi: 55 }, ]; // Radar Chart Data (normalize all to 0-100 scale) const radarData = [ { metric: 'Rev Growth', value: 70, fullMark: 100 }, { metric: 'Op Margin', value: 75, fullMark: 100 }, { metric: 'Gross Margin', value: 65, fullMark: 100 }, { metric: 'Profit Margin', value: 60, fullMark: 100 }, { metric: 'ROE', value: 70, fullMark: 100 }, { metric: 'Risk (CRS)', value: 60, fullMark: 100 }, { metric: 'Beta Score', value: 70, fullMark: 100 }, { metric: 'P/Market Disc', value: 50, fullMark: 100 }, { metric: 'Moat', value: 80, fullMark: 100 }, { metric: 'FCF Growth', value: 55, fullMark: 100 }, { metric: 'ROA', value: 65, fullMark: 100 }, { metric: 'Earn Growth', value: 75, fullMark: 100 }, ]; // Key Notes Content - from Bull/Bear case analysis const bullCase = { target: "€130-150", // Bull case price target points: [ "Strong revenue growth momentum", "Expanding margins", "Market leadership position", "Favorable industry tailwinds", "Strong balance sheet" ] }; const bearCase = { target: "€70-80", // Bear case price target points: [ "Valuation compression risk", "Competitive pressures", "Macro sensitivity", "Execution risks", "Key person dependency" ] }; const entryStrategy = { idealEntry: "€90-95", // From Entry Strategy section currentEntry: "€100 acceptable", target: "€120 (+20%)", // 12-month target stopLoss: "€85 (-15%)", // Stop loss positionSize: "2-3%" // Recommended allocation }; // ============================================================ // COMPONENT CODE (Standard - use as-is) // ============================================================ // Helper: Value Trap color (LOWER = genuine = green, HIGHER = trap = red) const getValueTrapColor = (score) => { if (score < 40) return 'bg-green-100 border-green-400 text-green-800'; if (score < 60) return 'bg-yellow-100 border-yellow-400 text-yellow-800'; return 'bg-red-100 border-red-400 text-red-800'; }; // Helper: Get label for Value Trap score const getValueTrapLabel = (score) => { if (score < 20) return 'Genuine'; if (score < 40) return 'Probably Genuine'; if (score < 60) return 'Caution'; if (score < 80) return 'Likely Trap'; return 'Strong Trap'; }; // Helper: Persona score color const getPersonaColor = (score) => { if (score >= 7) return 'bg-green-500'; if (score >= 4) return 'bg-yellow-500'; return 'bg-red-500'; }; // Helper: News sentiment color const getSentimentColor = (sentiment) => { if (sentiment > 0.3) return 'text-green-600'; if (sentiment > 0) return 'text-green-500'; if (sentiment > -0.3) return 'text-yellow-600'; return 'text-red-600'; }; // Persona Badge Component const PersonaBadge = ({ name, score, position }) => (
{score.toFixed(1)}
{name}
); const MetricBox = ({ label, value, benchmark, isGood, size = 'normal' }) => { let bgColor = 'bg-gray-50'; if (isGood === true) bgColor = 'bg-green-50 border-green-200'; if (isGood === false) bgColor = 'bg-red-50 border-red-200'; if (isGood === 'neutral') bgColor = 'bg-yellow-50 border-yellow-200'; return (
{value}
{label}
{benchmark &&
{benchmark}
}
); }; const SectionHeader = ({ title, bgColor }) => (
{title}
); return (
{/* Header */}
{ticker} - {companyName}
{/* TOP NEWS - Pipe separated with dates at END */}
TOP NEWS:
{topNewsString}
{/* Top 4 sections */}
{/* Price & Valuation - Updated with dual PEG */}
{/* Financial Performance */}
= 20 ? true : metrics.roe >= 10 ? 'neutral' : false} /> = 10} /> = 20 ? true : metrics.profitMargin >= 10 ? 'neutral' : false} /> = 20} /> = 40} /> = 15} />
{/* Next 4 sections */}
{/* Growth Metrics */}
= 10} /> = 0} /> metrics.epsTTM} />
{/* Risk Indicators */}
= 7 ? true : metrics.fScore >= 4 ? 'neutral' : false} /> = 2.99 ? true : metrics.zScore >= 1.81 ? 'neutral' : false} />
{/* Next 4 sections */}
{/* Liquidity & Free Cash Flow */}
= 1 && metrics.currentRatio <= 2 ? true : 'neutral'} /> = 5} /> = 4} /> = 15 ? true : metrics.fcfMargin >= 10 ? 'neutral' : false} />
{/* Insider & Sentiment & Class */}
metrics.insSells} /> 0 ? '+' : ''}${metrics.newsSentiment.toFixed(3)} / ${metrics.newsArticleCount}`} benchmark={metrics.newsSentiment > 0 ? '(Positive)' : '(Negative)'} isGood={metrics.newsSentiment > 0} />
{/* Last 2 sections */}
{/* Quality Scores */}
= 70 ? true : metrics.cqvs >= 50 ? 'neutral' : false} /> = 70} /> = 70 ? true : metrics.quality >= 50 ? 'neutral' : false} /> = 70} /> = 70 ? true : metrics.integrity >= 50 ? 'neutral' : false} />
{/* Moat & Other */}
= 7 ? true : metrics.buffettMoat >= 4 ? 'neutral' : false} /> = 8 ? true : metrics.greenblattEY >= 4 ? 'neutral' : false} /> = 80 ? true : metrics.earningsPredict >= 60 ? 'neutral' : false} /> -30 ? '(Low)' : metrics.maxDrawdown > -50 ? '(Mid)' : '(High)'} isGood={metrics.maxDrawdown > -30 ? true : metrics.maxDrawdown > -50 ? 'neutral' : false} />
{/* Charts Section - Enhanced with Legends */}
{/* Linear Price Chart + MACD */}
LINEAR PRICE CHART (10Y)
— Close Price — Total Return
- - Market Value (Current): €{metrics.marketValueCurrent}
- - Intrinsic Value (Current): €{metrics.intrinsicValueCurrent}
- - Analyst Target: €{metrics.analystTarget}
MACD
{/* Radar + Investor Personas + Forecast */}
{/* Investor Persona Badges */}
Advice: {recommendation} (CQVS: {metrics.cqvs.toFixed(1)})
1Y PRICE + 6-MONTH FORECAST
— Close — 50-Day MA — 200-Day MA ▒ Bollinger Bands - - Forecast
{/* Valuation Indicator */}
10 ? 'text-green-600' : metrics.valuationPercent < -10 ? 'text-red-600' : 'text-yellow-600'}`}> {metrics.valuationLabel} ({metrics.valuationPercent > 0 ? '+' : ''}{metrics.valuationPercent}%)
{/* Log Price + RSI */}
LOG PRICE CHART (10Y)
— Close Price — Total Return
- - Unrestr. Market Value (Current): €{metrics.unrestrictedMarketValueCurrent}
- - Unrestr. Market Value (Next Year): €{metrics.unrestrictedMarketValueNextYear}
RSI (14) = {rsiData[rsiData.length - 1].rsi}
{/* NEW: Ichimoku Cloud Chart */}
ICHIMOKU CLOUD
— Close Price — Tenkan-sen (9) — Kijun-sen (26) — Chikou Span ▒ Senkou Span A/B (Cloud) ◆ TK Cross ◆ Kumo Twist
{ichimokuSignals.tkCross} {ichimokuSignals.kumoTwist} {ichimokuSignals.priceVsCloud}
{/* Key Notes (Expandable) */}
{showKeyNotes && (
{/* Bull Case */}
BULL CASE ({bullCase.target})
    {bullCase.points.map((point, i) =>
  • {point}
    • )}
{/* Bear Case */}
BEAR CASE ({bearCase.target})
    {bearCase.points.map((point, i) =>
  • {point}
    • )}
{/* Entry/Exit Strategy */}
ENTRY/EXIT STRATEGY
  • Ideal Entry: {entryStrategy.idealEntry}
  • Current: {entryStrategy.currentEntry}
  • Target: {entryStrategy.target}
  • Stop Loss: {entryStrategy.stopLoss}
  • Position Size: {entryStrategy.positionSize}
)}
{/* Footer */}
Analysis Date: {analysisDate} | Sources: SEC Filings, Company Reports | {recommendation}
); }; export default QuantDashboard; ``` ### Implementation Instructions **CRITICAL STEPS:** 1. **Calculate all metrics** during the comprehensive text analysis 2. **Store metrics in variables** as you calculate them 3. **After completing full text analysis**, create the React artifact 4. **Replace ALL placeholder values** in the template with actual calculated data 5. **Use the EXACT template structure** - do not modify the component code 6. **Populate these specific data arrays**: - `metrics` object (60+ values including investor persona scores) - `topNews` array (5 recent headlines with dates) - `priceHistory` array (10-year data with multiple valuation lines) - `oneYearData` array (with MAs, Bollinger Bands, forecast) - `ichimokuData` array (6-month with signal markers) - `ichimokuSignals` object (TK cross, Kumo twist, price vs cloud) - `macdData` array (6 recent points with histogram) - `rsiData` array (6 recent points) - `radarData` array (12 metrics, normalized 0-100) - `bullCase.points` (5 points from bull case analysis) - `bearCase.points` (5 points from bear case analysis) - `entryStrategy` (5 values from entry/exit strategy) 6. **Normalize radar chart values** properly: - Each metric on 0-100 scale - Higher is always better (invert risk/beta if needed) - Use scaling formulas provided above 7. **Format values correctly**: - Currency: `"€100.00"` (Euro is the default - use € not $) - Large numbers: `"€10B"`, `"€2.5M"` - Percentages: `15.0` (number, not string with %) - Ratios: `1.25` (number) - Scores: `7` (integer) or `75.0` (float) 8. **Growth metrics**: - Use REPORTED revenue growth (not underlying/organic) - Use REPORTED earnings growth (not adjusted EPS growth) 9. **DO NOT**: - Leave placeholder values - Modify the component structure - Skip any sections - Use estimated/guessed data **This is the ONLY accepted dashboard format. All other dashboard styles are deprecated.** --- ## Integration with Project Context ### Portfolio Awareness - Access portfolio data from project knowledge - Check if stock is already owned (if so, suggest using Portfolio Analyst) - Assess fit with existing holdings (sector exposure, correlation) - Consider position sizing in context of current allocations ### Investment Profile - User's investment timeline, risk tolerance, preferences in project instructions - Tailor recommendations to user's profile - Consider tax implications from user's context - Adjust position sizing based on portfolio size and risk tolerance ### Avoiding Duplication If stock is already in portfolio: - Acknowledge: "You already own [SYMBOL]. For analysis of your existing position, use the Portfolio Analyst skill." - Still provide evaluation if user wants fresh assessment - Frame as "Should you add more?" rather than initial purchase --- ## When to Use This Skill **Use Stock Evaluator when:** - User asks "Should I buy [stock]?" - User wants evaluation of watchlist candidates - User requests stock recommendations - User asks "Is [stock] a good investment?" - User wants to compare multiple potential investments - User asks for alternatives to a stock they're considering - User wants entry price and position sizing guidance - User requests a "quant-style dashboard" or "stock visualization" **Do NOT use this skill when:** - User wants to review existing portfolio positions → Use Portfolio Analyst - User wants general market commentary → Regular knowledge - User wants stock screening/discovery → Different workflow - User asks about options, derivatives, crypto → Out of scope **Output includes:** - Comprehensive text analysis (all sections above) - Quant-style React dashboard artifact (standardized visual format) --- ## Best Practices ### Research Approach 1. **Start with company filings** (10-K, 10-Q) - NOT news articles 2. **Go back 5-10 years** - Understand evolution, not just current state 3. **Compare to 3-5 peers** - Apples to apples comparison 4. **Multiple valuation methods** - Don't rely on single approach 5. **Present both sides** - Bull and bear cases fairly 6. **Be specific** - Use actual data, not generalities ### Valuation Discipline - Always require minimum 15% margin of safety - Use conservative assumptions in DCF - Weight multiple valuation methods - Consider industry-specific norms - Don't overpay for growth ### Risk Awareness - Explicitly identify and quantify risks - Consider probability and impact - Acknowledge unknowns honestly - Don't just focus on upside ### Communication - Lead with clear recommendation - Support every claim with evidence - Use specific numbers and dates - Explain reasoning, don't just state conclusions - Make recommendations unmistakable --- ## Common Patterns to Recognize ### Quality Companies - Consistent profitability over full cycle (5-10 years) - Strong balance sheet (low debt, high cash) - Competitive moats (wide or narrow) - Shareholder-friendly capital allocation - Predictable business model ### Value Traps (AVOID) - Cheap for a reason (declining business) - High debt with weak cash flow - Losing market share consistently - No competitive advantages - Poor management capital allocation ### Growth at Reasonable Price (GARP) - Strong revenue growth (15-25%+) - Expanding margins - Large addressable market - Competitive advantages - Reasonable valuation (PEG < 1.5) ### Turnaround Candidates - New management with track record - Improving key metrics quarter-over-quarter - Catalyst for change - Deep value with margin of safety - Reduced debt or improved cash flow --- ## Quality Checks Before Finalizing Before presenting analysis, verify: ### DATA INTEGRITY CHECKS (CRITICAL - CHECK FIRST) 1. ✅ Every numeric metric has a cited source from web search? 2. ✅ No insider activity fabricated? (SEC Form 4 or N/A) 3. ✅ No short interest fabricated? (FINRA/exchange or N/A) 4. ✅ ROE benchmark correct? (>20% = green, 10-20% = yellow, <10% = red) 5. ✅ Standardized metric labels used? (e.g., "Operative Margin", not "Operating") 6. ✅ All unavailable data shows "N/A"? (NEVER zeros or estimates) 7. ✅ TOP NEWS format correct? (pipe-separated, dates at END in brackets) 8. ✅ Valuation indicator displayed below forecast? (Undervalued/Fairly Valued/Overvalued +/- %) 9. ✅ Beta + Vol 1Y combined in one cell? 10. ✅ Sector/Industry combined in one cell? ### ANALYSIS COMPLETENESS CHECKS 11. ✅ All mandatory deliverables completed? 12. ✅ Multiple valuation methods used? 13. ✅ Both bull and bear cases presented? 14. ✅ Clear BUY/HOLD/SELL recommendation? 15. ✅ Specific entry price and position size? 16. ✅ 3-5 peer companies compared? 17. ✅ 5-10 year financial trends analyzed? 18. ✅ Research based on company filings, not news? 19. ✅ Margin of safety calculated? 20. ✅ Risk level assessed? 21. ✅ If SELL: 3-5 alternatives provided? 22. ✅ Technical entry points identified? 23. ✅ Advanced metrics calculated (Piotroski F, Altman Z, Beneish M, Max Drawdown)? 24. ✅ All monetary values in € (Euro)? 25. ✅ Revenue/Earnings growth using REPORTED (not underlying/adjusted) figures? 26. ✅ Value Trap Score calculated (0-100, LOWER = genuine)? 27. ✅ All 8 Investor Persona Scores calculated (0-10)? 28. ✅ PEG ratio calculated? 29. ✅ FCF Margin calculated? 30. ✅ Greenblatt Magic Formula metrics (EY, ROC)? 31. ✅ News sentiment and short interest researched? 32. ✅ Ichimoku Cloud data gathered with signal markers? 33. ✅ TOP NEWS section populated (5 recent headlines)? 34. ✅ 10-year price history with valuation lines available? 35. ✅ Enhanced dashboard created with ALL 60+ metrics populated? ### FINAL VALIDATION QUESTIONS - Can you cite source for EVERY number in the dashboard? - Did any metric come from training knowledge alone? (If yes, search again or use N/A) - Are insider buys/sells from SEC Form 4 specifically? (If not found, use N/A) If any checklist item incomplete: **STOP and gather more information**. If data genuinely unavailable after searching: **Use "N/A" - never fabricate**. --- ## Example Evaluation Structure [See complete example in EVALUATION-WORKFLOWS.md for detailed walkthrough] --- ## Continuous Improvement After each evaluation: - Track recommendation outcomes - Learn from what worked/didn't work - Refine valuation assumptions - Improve pattern recognition - Update industry knowledge The goal is to discover genuinely attractive investment opportunities that fit the user's profile with adequate margin of safety and acceptable risk.