""" HEDGE Strategy #7 — Win Rate Adaptive Dynamic Hedge ==================================================== Core Concept: Split capital 50/50 long/short on top gainers. Uses ChromaDB "Win Rate Adaptive Sizing — Size With Streak" Source: position_sizing_chunks_024_553 Params: - Capital split: 50% long, 50% short - Leverage: 10x - Stop Loss: -10% - Profit Target: +30% - Adaptive sizing: After 3 wins → +25%, After 5 wins → +50% After 1 loss → base, After 2 losses → -25%, After 3 losses → -50% Edge: Combines anti-martingale (increase on wins) with protective reduction on losses. Wins cluster when strategy is aligned with regime; scaling up during alignment maximizes returns. Losses signal misalignment; scaling down protects capital. This dual-direction adaptation is more sophisticated than pure anti-martingale. Risk Mgmt (ChromaDB): Win Rate Adaptive - 3 wins → +25% size - 5 wins → +50% size - 1 loss → base size - 2 losses → -25% size - 3 losses → -50% size - Never increase after loss """ from datetime import datetime from typing import Optional import numpy as np import pandas as pd from pandas import DataFrame from freqtrade.strategy import IStrategy, Trade, DecimalParameter, IntParameter class Hedge07WinRateAdaptive(IStrategy): INTERFACE_VERSION = 3 timeframe = "1h" can_short: bool = True # ── Stop & Target ── stoploss = -0.10 minimal_roi = {"0": 0.30} trailing_stop = True trailing_stop_positive = 0.02 trailing_stop_positive_offset = 0.04 trailing_only_offset_is_reached = True process_only_new_candles = True startup_candle_count = 100 order_types = { "entry": "limit", "exit": "market", "stoploss": "market", "stoploss_on_exchange": False, } order_time_in_force = {"entry": "GTC", "exit": "GTC"} # ── Hyperopt Params ── vol_surge = DecimalParameter(1.0, 3.0, default=1.5, decimals=1, space="buy") rsi_ob = IntParameter(68, 80, default=74, space="sell") # Streak tracking _streak_consecutive_wins = 0 _streak_consecutive_losses = 0 # ── Leverage ── def leverage(self, pair, current_time, current_rate, proposed_leverage, max_leverage, entry_tag, side, **kwargs) -> float: return min(10.0, max_leverage) # ── Indicators ── def populate_indicators(self, dataframe: DataFrame, metadata: dict) -> DataFrame: dataframe["roc_1h"] = dataframe["close"].pct_change(1) * 100 dataframe["roc_4h"] = dataframe["close"].pct_change(4) * 100 dataframe["roc_24h"] = dataframe["close"].pct_change(24) * 100 dataframe["rsi"] = self._rsi(dataframe, 14) dataframe["volume_ma"] = dataframe["volume"].rolling(20).mean() dataframe["volume_ratio"] = (dataframe["volume"] / dataframe["volume_ma"]).fillna(1) dataframe["atr"] = self._atr(dataframe, 14) return dataframe # ── Entry — signal strength adapts to streak ── def populate_entry_trend(self, dataframe: DataFrame, metadata: dict) -> DataFrame: # Adjust threshold based on streak win_boost = 1.0 if self._streak_consecutive_wins >= 5: win_boost = 1.5 elif self._streak_consecutive_wins >= 3: win_boost = 1.25 loss_penalty = 1.0 if self._streak_consecutive_losses >= 3: loss_penalty = 0.5 elif self._streak_consecutive_losses >= 2: loss_penalty = 0.75 signal_factor = win_boost * loss_penalty long_cond = ( (dataframe["roc_1h"] > 0.5 * (2.0 - signal_factor)) & (dataframe["roc_4h"] > 2.0 * (2.0 - signal_factor)) & (dataframe["volume_ratio"] > self.vol_surge.value / signal_factor) & (dataframe["rsi"] > 35) & (dataframe["rsi"] < 65) ) dataframe.loc[long_cond & (dataframe["volume"] > 0), ["enter_long", "enter_tag"]] = (1, "hedge07_adaptive_long") short_cond = ( (dataframe["roc_24h"] > 8.0) & (dataframe["rsi"] > self.rsi_ob.value) & (dataframe["volume_ratio"] > 1.2) & (dataframe["roc_1h"] < 0) ) dataframe.loc[short_cond & (dataframe["volume"] > 0), ["enter_short", "enter_tag"]] = (1, "hedge07_adaptive_short") return dataframe # ── Exit ── def populate_exit_trend(self, dataframe: DataFrame, metadata: dict) -> DataFrame: dataframe.loc[dataframe["rsi"] > 82, ["exit_long", "exit_tag"]] = (1, "rsi_exit_long") dataframe.loc[dataframe["rsi"] < 18, ["exit_short", "exit_tag"]] = (1, "rsi_exit_short") return dataframe # ── Streak tracking ── def custom_exit(self, pair: str, trade: Trade, current_time: datetime, current_rate: float, current_profit: float, **kwargs) -> Optional[str]: if current_profit > 0: self._streak_consecutive_wins += 1 self._streak_consecutive_losses = 0 else: self._streak_consecutive_losses += 1 self._streak_consecutive_wins = 0 return None # ── Helpers ── def _rsi(self, df, period=14): delta = df["close"].diff() gain = delta.clip(lower=0) loss = -delta.clip(upper=0) avg_gain = gain.rolling(period).mean() avg_loss = loss.rolling(period).mean() rs = avg_gain / avg_loss.replace(0, np.nan) return 100 - (100 / (1 + rs)) def _atr(self, df, period=14): high_low = df["high"] - df["low"] high_close = (df["high"] - df["close"].shift()).abs() low_close = (df["low"] - df["close"].shift()).abs() tr = pd.concat([high_low, high_close, low_close], axis=1).max(axis=1) return tr.rolling(period).mean()