{
 "generated_utc": "2026-10-20T14:24:01Z",
 "log_start_utc": "2026-10-19T00:00:00Z",
 "first_formal_read_utc": "2026-12-14T00:00:00Z",
 "pairs": [
  "EURUSD",
  "GBPUSD",
  "USDJPY",
  "USDCHF",
  "AUDUSD",
  "USDCAD",
  "NZDUSD"
 ],
 "coefficients_sha256": "21663b2aedcd6ecec87a6d13f482b4c4d87adb2ae261d1a9eb035a5c8d18ced4",
 "events_sha256": "da1da082e25f011829ac4320144098b84dc82e891328ff31be8acef7bbb65e1b",
 "chains_ok": {
  "forecasts": true,
  "realized": true
 },
 "forecast_hours": 35,
 "late_hours": 0,
 "hours_without_receipt": 1,
 "status": "live",
 "hours_scored": 32,
 "pair_hours_scored": 224,
 "all_hours": {
  "n": 224,
  "hours": 32,
  "mean_range_pips": 10.249702650159644,
  "model": {
   "mse_log": 0.15285658760236323,
   "qlike": 0.32561940141905954,
   "mae_pips": 3.0783891477510266,
   "hit25": 0.4642857142857143
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  "atr": {
   "mse_log": 0.30937131089203695,
   "qlike": 0.6350649397390425,
   "mae_pips": 4.100892521153527,
   "hit25": 0.40625
  },
  "sh20": {
   "mse_log": 0.17833357303313987,
   "qlike": 0.2978803036229887,
   "mae_pips": 3.331925865075268,
   "hit25": 0.42410714285714285
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 },
 "release_hours": {
  "n": 0
 },
 "release_next_hours": {
  "n": 0
 },
 "per_pair": {
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   "n": 32,
   "hours": 32,
   "mean_range_pips": 10.47074815245,
   "model": {
    "mse_log": 0.16012699164291894,
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    "mae_pips": 3.2000380116550002,
    "hit25": 0.53125
   },
   "atr": {
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    "mae_pips": 4.900547333397813,
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   },
   "sh20": {
    "mse_log": 0.19762974226770075,
    "qlike": 0.28374356722967303,
    "mae_pips": 3.1461303022809375,
    "hit25": 0.4375
   }
  },
  "GBPUSD": {
   "n": 32,
   "hours": 32,
   "mean_range_pips": 12.671820876775001,
   "model": {
    "mse_log": 0.1625824738200408,
    "qlike": 0.42191686444136867,
    "mae_pips": 4.275576027983126,
    "hit25": 0.375
   },
   "atr": {
    "mse_log": 0.39825698350945427,
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    "mae_pips": 5.664231819570938,
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   "sh20": {
    "mse_log": 0.1822200913953044,
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    "mae_pips": 4.1317974941856255,
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  },
  "USDJPY": {
   "n": 32,
   "hours": 32,
   "mean_range_pips": 13.113842240214375,
   "model": {
    "mse_log": 0.1326473757891255,
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   "atr": {
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   "sh20": {
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  },
  "USDCHF": {
   "n": 32,
   "hours": 32,
   "mean_range_pips": 9.695162751599064,
   "model": {
    "mse_log": 0.13066407091512777,
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    "mae_pips": 2.0888594074790623,
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   },
   "atr": {
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    "mae_pips": 2.76172040448,
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   },
   "sh20": {
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    "mae_pips": 2.0063745578609375,
    "hit25": 0.59375
   }
  },
  "AUDUSD": {
   "n": 32,
   "hours": 32,
   "mean_range_pips": 7.3863216965928125,
   "model": {
    "mse_log": 0.13840454276175992,
    "qlike": 0.30315065889993364,
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   "atr": {
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    "mae_pips": 2.8756535289812497,
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   },
   "sh20": {
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    "mae_pips": 2.608608298943438,
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   }
  },
  "USDCAD": {
   "n": 32,
   "hours": 32,
   "mean_range_pips": 12.279614683091875,
   "model": {
    "mse_log": 0.19313777444308491,
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    "mae_pips": 3.832090239710625,
    "hit25": 0.46875
   },
   "atr": {
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   "sh20": {
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    "mae_pips": 3.6432175197459378,
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  },
  "NZDUSD": {
   "n": 32,
   "hours": 32,
   "mean_range_pips": 6.130408150394375,
   "model": {
    "mse_log": 0.15243288384448472,
    "qlike": 0.24569198987799196,
    "mae_pips": 1.8202015530918751,
    "hit25": 0.46875
   },
   "atr": {
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    "mae_pips": 2.1111933773115625,
    "hit25": 0.34375
   },
   "sh20": {
    "mse_log": 0.19637831363231706,
    "qlike": 0.2713268731697952,
    "mae_pips": 2.230237961815938,
    "hit25": 0.375
   }
  }
 },
 "dm_pooled_mse_log": {
  "atr": {
   "mean_diff": 0.15651472328967375,
   "hac_t_lag24": 5.38684595877438,
   "n_hours": 32
  },
  "sh20": {
   "mean_diff": 0.025476985430776637,
   "hac_t_lag24": 1.8530499423689861,
   "n_hours": 32
  }
 },
 "primary_running": {
  "best_free_baseline": "sh20",
  "model_mse_log": 0.15285658760236323,
  "baseline_mse_log": 0.17833357303313987,
  "mse_ratio": 0.8571385914751888,
  "hac_t": 1.8530499423689861,
  "hours": 32,
  "reading_if_read_now": "not enough hours yet"
 },
 "pass_rule": "PASS if, over scored hours 2026-10-19 00:00 .. 2026-12-13 23:00 UTC, the model's pooled MSE-log is lower than the best free baseline's and the pooled Diebold-Mariano HAC t (lag 24) > 1.96; FAIL if not lower; else INDETERMINATE (needs >= 600 scored hours)",
 "last_forecasts": [
  {
   "target_hour_utc": "2026-10-20T15:00:00Z",
   "events": [],
   "on_time": true,
   "pairs": {
    "EURUSD": {
     "model": 12.408,
     "atr": 9.922,
     "sh20": 16.724,
     "actual": null
    },
    "GBPUSD": {
     "model": 15.469,
     "atr": 12.962,
     "sh20": 17.511,
     "actual": null
    },
    "USDJPY": {
     "model": 16.553,
     "atr": 12.814,
     "sh20": 16.884,
     "actual": null
    },
    "USDCHF": {
     "model": 11.466,
     "atr": 8.862,
     "sh20": 10.932,
     "actual": null
    },
    "AUDUSD": {
     "model": 8.395,
     "atr": 7.203,
     "sh20": 10.758,
     "actual": null
    },
    "USDCAD": {
     "model": 15.456,
     "atr": 10.867,
     "sh20": 13.921,
     "actual": null
    },
    "NZDUSD": {
     "model": 7.335,
     "atr": 5.63,
     "sh20": 9.202,
     "actual": null
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "target_hour_utc": "2026-10-20T14:00:00Z",
   "events": [],
   "on_time": true,
   "pairs": {
    "EURUSD": {
     "model": 18.574,
     "atr": 9.583,
     "sh20": 15.471,
     "actual": null
    },
    "GBPUSD": {
     "model": 23.63,
     "atr": 11.918,
     "sh20": 19.745,
     "actual": null
    },
    "USDJPY": {
     "model": 23.324,
     "atr": 12.298,
     "sh20": 23.832,
     "actual": null
    },
    "USDCHF": {
     "model": 17.021,
     "atr": 8.471,
     "sh20": 14.897,
     "actual": null
    },
    "AUDUSD": {
     "model": 13.059,
     "atr": 6.925,
     "sh20": 12.634,
     "actual": null
    },
    "USDCAD": {
     "model": 20.957,
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     "sh20": 16.656,
     "actual": null
    },
    "NZDUSD": {
     "model": 11.248,
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     "actual": null
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "target_hour_utc": "2026-10-20T13:00:00Z",
   "events": [],
   "on_time": true,
   "pairs": {
    "EURUSD": {
     "model": 13.12,
     "atr": 9.029,
     "sh20": 15.848,
     "actual": 16.4
    },
    "GBPUSD": {
     "model": 14.552,
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     "sh20": 19.961,
     "actual": 30.3
    },
    "USDJPY": {
     "model": 15.306,
     "atr": 11.085,
     "sh20": 21.82,
     "actual": 22.8
    },
    "USDCHF": {
     "model": 11.837,
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     "sh20": 14.251,
     "actual": 16.2
    },
    "AUDUSD": {
     "model": 8.646,
     "atr": 6.611,
     "sh20": 10.794,
     "actual": 12.2
    },
    "USDCAD": {
     "model": 15.251,
     "atr": 9.46,
     "sh20": 17.793,
     "actual": 23.8
    },
    "NZDUSD": {
     "model": 7.866,
     "atr": 5.395,
     "sh20": 9.818,
     "actual": 7.9
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "target_hour_utc": "2026-10-20T12:00:00Z",
   "events": [],
   "on_time": true,
   "pairs": {
    "EURUSD": {
     "model": 14.929,
     "atr": 9.253,
     "sh20": 20.404,
     "actual": 19.2
    },
    "GBPUSD": {
     "model": 16.444,
     "atr": 10.394,
     "sh20": 21.072,
     "actual": 36.6
    },
    "USDJPY": {
     "model": 16.553,
     "atr": 11.207,
     "sh20": 21.435,
     "actual": 32.8
    },
    "USDCHF": {
     "model": 12.004,
     "atr": 7.99,
     "sh20": 14.851,
     "actual": 15.9
    },
    "AUDUSD": {
     "model": 9.027,
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     "sh20": 12.429,
     "actual": 12.4
    },
    "USDCAD": {
     "model": 15.624,
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     "sh20": 21.612,
     "actual": 21.1
    },
    "NZDUSD": {
     "model": 8.108,
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     "sh20": 11.877,
     "actual": 8.2
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "target_hour_utc": "2026-10-20T11:00:00Z",
   "events": [],
   "on_time": true,
   "pairs": {
    "EURUSD": {
     "model": 15.441,
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     "actual": 7.0
    },
    "GBPUSD": {
     "model": 16.246,
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     "sh20": 14.48,
     "actual": 11.5
    },
    "USDJPY": {
     "model": 15.434,
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     "sh20": 17.637,
     "actual": 11.1
    },
    "USDCHF": {
     "model": 10.768,
     "atr": 8.049,
     "sh20": 10.047,
     "actual": 10.6
    },
    "AUDUSD": {
     "model": 8.522,
     "atr": 6.563,
     "sh20": 8.8,
     "actual": 7.7
    },
    "USDCAD": {
     "model": 12.544,
     "atr": 9.381,
     "sh20": 13.073,
     "actual": 11.1
    },
    "NZDUSD": {
     "model": 7.469,
     "atr": 5.528,
     "sh20": 8.13,
     "actual": 5.8
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "target_hour_utc": "2026-10-20T10:00:00Z",
   "events": [],
   "on_time": true,
   "pairs": {
    "EURUSD": {
     "model": 11.14,
     "atr": 8.563,
     "sh20": 11.962,
     "actual": 12.5
    },
    "GBPUSD": {
     "model": 14.553,
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     "sh20": 13.753,
     "actual": 16.9
    },
    "USDJPY": {
     "model": 12.26,
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     "actual": 10.6
    },
    "USDCHF": {
     "model": 9.573,
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     "sh20": 9.364,
     "actual": 8.4
    },
    "AUDUSD": {
     "model": 6.429,
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     "sh20": 7.448,
     "actual": 7.9
    },
    "USDCAD": {
     "model": 9.939,
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     "sh20": 8.808,
     "actual": 11.7
    },
    "NZDUSD": {
     "model": 6.309,
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     "actual": 4.5
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "target_hour_utc": "2026-10-20T09:00:00Z",
   "events": [],
   "on_time": true,
   "pairs": {
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     "atr": 8.274,
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     "actual": 18.8
    },
    "GBPUSD": {
     "model": 13.652,
     "atr": 9.877,
     "sh20": 14.285,
     "actual": 14.3
    },
    "USDJPY": {
     "model": 13.337,
     "atr": 11.209,
     "sh20": 17.396,
     "actual": 11.1
    },
    "USDCHF": {
     "model": 9.464,
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     "sh20": 10.82,
     "actual": 8.6
    },
    "AUDUSD": {
     "model": 6.613,
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     "sh20": 6.943,
     "actual": 11.0
    },
    "USDCAD": {
     "model": 9.689,
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     "sh20": 8.194,
     "actual": 9.6
    },
    "NZDUSD": {
     "model": 6.307,
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     "sh20": 6.627,
     "actual": 6.6
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "target_hour_utc": "2026-10-20T08:00:00Z",
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   "pairs": {
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     "sh20": 16.291,
     "actual": 14.1
    },
    "GBPUSD": {
     "model": 16.943,
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     "actual": 11.1
    },
    "USDJPY": {
     "model": 16.241,
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     "actual": 18.1
    },
    "USDCHF": {
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    },
    "AUDUSD": {
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     "actual": 5.1
    },
    "USDCAD": {
     "model": 11.096,
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    },
    "NZDUSD": {
     "model": 7.546,
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     "actual": 4.1
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   }
  },
  {
   "target_hour_utc": "2026-10-20T07:00:00Z",
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   "on_time": true,
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     "model": 11.523,
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     "sh20": 17.971,
     "actual": 9.5
    },
    "GBPUSD": {
     "model": 12.739,
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     "sh20": 18.84,
     "actual": 8.8
    },
    "USDJPY": {
     "model": 16.77,
     "atr": 11.013,
     "sh20": 19.972,
     "actual": 12.7
    },
    "USDCHF": {
     "model": 10.086,
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     "sh20": 15.194,
     "actual": 13.8
    },
    "AUDUSD": {
     "model": 8.179,
     "atr": 6.038,
     "sh20": 10.174,
     "actual": 4.2
    },
    "USDCAD": {
     "model": 9.792,
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     "sh20": 11.556,
     "actual": 17.8
    },
    "NZDUSD": {
     "model": 7.18,
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     "sh20": 9.273,
     "actual": 7.1
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   }
  },
  {
   "target_hour_utc": "2026-10-20T06:00:00Z",
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   "pairs": {
    "EURUSD": {
     "model": 9.74,
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     "sh20": 12.61,
     "actual": 6.7
    },
    "GBPUSD": {
     "model": 12.006,
     "atr": 9.022,
     "sh20": 13.499,
     "actual": 30.2
    },
    "USDJPY": {
     "model": 15.459,
     "atr": 10.952,
     "sh20": 18.778,
     "actual": 16.5
    },
    "USDCHF": {
     "model": 8.897,
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     "actual": 8.9
    },
    "AUDUSD": {
     "model": 7.396,
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     "sh20": 8.372,
     "actual": 16.5
    },
    "USDCAD": {
     "model": 9.118,
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     "actual": 8.8
    },
    "NZDUSD": {
     "model": 6.699,
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     "sh20": 8.473,
     "actual": 10.9
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   }
  },
  {
   "target_hour_utc": "2026-10-20T05:00:00Z",
   "events": [],
   "on_time": true,
   "pairs": {
    "EURUSD": {
     "model": 7.977,
     "atr": 8.817,
     "sh20": 8.693,
     "actual": 8.5
    },
    "GBPUSD": {
     "model": 8.317,
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     "sh20": 9.143,
     "actual": 6.5
    },
    "USDJPY": {
     "model": 13.506,
     "atr": 10.899,
     "sh20": 14.387,
     "actual": 13.8
    },
    "USDCHF": {
     "model": 6.308,
     "atr": 8.088,
     "sh20": 6.075,
     "actual": 9.0
    },
    "AUDUSD": {
     "model": 7.04,
     "atr": 6.319,
     "sh20": 7.921,
     "actual": 4.1
    },
    "USDCAD": {
     "model": 7.611,
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     "sh20": 6.198,
     "actual": 5.2
    },
    "NZDUSD": {
     "model": 6.069,
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     "actual": 4.1
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   }
  },
  {
   "target_hour_utc": "2026-10-20T04:00:00Z",
   "events": [],
   "on_time": true,
   "pairs": {
    "EURUSD": {
     "model": 6.453,
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     "actual": 5.6
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    "GBPUSD": {
     "model": 7.145,
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    },
    "USDJPY": {
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    },
    "USDCHF": {
     "model": 5.28,
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     "actual": 4.9
    },
    "AUDUSD": {
     "model": 6.11,
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