""" VolBreakoutSized — per-pair Donchian-24 break w/ 4h regime + vol-target sizing Paradigm: breakout Hypothesis: v0.3.0's BTCLeaderBreakX hit 1.07 via cross-pair Donchian on BTC triggering trades on every pair — but its single-regime success doesn't tell us whether breakouts as a paradigm survive 2022 bear. Try a per-pair Donchian-24 (24-bar = 1 day at 1h) WITHOUT the BTC-leader cross-pair lever, gated by a 4h slow trend regime (4h EMA50 > 4h EMA200 — engages/disengages on weeks-long regime shifts), with vol-target sizing (4h ATR/close → scale stake to target ~2.5% ATR per trade). The vol-target is the v0.4.0 honesty mechanism: in 2022 winter ATRs balloon, so this strategy structurally trades smaller — letting us distinguish breakout edge from regime exposure cleanly. Patient SMA30 exit transfers v0.3.0 Finding 2 (breakouts benefit from "ride the move" exits). Parent: root (paradigm-inspired by v0.3.0 BTCLeaderBreakX but structurally different: per-pair Donchian not BTC-cross-pair, 4h EMA regime not portfolio-diversification, vol-target sizing not equal-weight) Created: pending — fill in after first commit Status: active Uses MTF: yes """ from pandas import DataFrame import talib.abstract as ta from freqtrade.strategy import IStrategy, informative class VolBreakoutSized(IStrategy): INTERFACE_VERSION = 3 timeframe = "1h" can_short = False minimal_roi = {"0": 100} # r13 reverts r12's stoploss=-0.10 → -0.99. r12 found stoploss had # near-zero aggregate effect (Sharpe 1.122→1.100, slight drag) — # SMA50 patient exit already cuts bad trades at ~the right point. # Stoploss adds no value on this configuration, small drag. stoploss = -0.99 trailing_stop = False process_only_new_candles = True use_exit_signal = True exit_profit_only = False ignore_roi_if_entry_signal = False startup_candle_count: int = 250 @informative("4h") def populate_indicators_4h(self, dataframe: DataFrame, metadata: dict) -> DataFrame: dataframe["ema50"] = ta.EMA(dataframe, timeperiod=50) dataframe["ema200"] = ta.EMA(dataframe, timeperiod=200) dataframe["atr"] = ta.ATR(dataframe, timeperiod=14) dataframe["atr_pct"] = dataframe["atr"] / dataframe["close"] return dataframe def populate_indicators(self, dataframe: DataFrame, metadata: dict) -> DataFrame: # Per-pair Donchian-24 prior-bar high (exclude current bar to avoid # self-reference at break detection) dataframe["donchian_high_24"] = dataframe["high"].rolling(24).max().shift(1) # r15 reverts r14: SMA75→SMA50. r14 SMA75 lifted profit +72% but # cost 0.064 Sharpe (clean risk/return tradeoff — Pareto frontier). # SMA50 is the Sharpe optimum for this strategy. dataframe["sma50"] = ta.SMA(dataframe, timeperiod=50) dataframe["volume_sma20"] = dataframe["volume"].rolling(20).mean() return dataframe def populate_entry_trend(self, dataframe: DataFrame, metadata: dict) -> DataFrame: # r6: revert volume threshold 1.4x → 1.3x. r5 bump cost 0.09 Sharpe # (1.085→0.998), the -28 filtered trades were net positive. 1.3x # is the local optimum — clean isolation, single-knob revert. dataframe.loc[ (dataframe["close"] > dataframe["donchian_high_24"]) & (dataframe["ema50_4h"] > dataframe["ema200_4h"]) & (dataframe["volume"] > 1.3 * dataframe["volume_sma20"]), "enter_long", ] = 1 return dataframe def populate_exit_trend(self, dataframe: DataFrame, metadata: dict) -> DataFrame: # Patient ride-the-move exit (v0.3.0 Finding 2: breakouts benefit # from slow-SMA exits, not responsive ones) dataframe.loc[dataframe["close"] < dataframe["sma50"], "exit_long"] = 1 return dataframe def custom_stake_amount( self, pair: str, current_time, current_rate: float, proposed_stake: float, min_stake, max_stake: float, leverage: float, entry_tag: str, side: str, **kwargs, ) -> float: # Vol-target sizing: scale stake so position-level ATR exposure # tracks ~2.5% per 4h bar. In low-vol bull, scale is capped at 1.0 # (don't OVER-size when vol is unusually low). In high-vol bear, # ATR% balloons → smaller stake → bear-regime de-risking. df, _ = self.dp.get_analyzed_dataframe(pair, self.timeframe) if df.empty or "atr_pct_4h" not in df.columns: return proposed_stake atr_pct = df["atr_pct_4h"].iloc[-1] if atr_pct != atr_pct or atr_pct <= 0: return proposed_stake # r20 (final): vol_target 0.005→0.003. Final peak-mapping step # before stopping for retrospective review. If Sharpe still climbs, # the boundary is past 0.003 (extreme de-risk territory). vol_target = 0.003 scale = min(1.0, vol_target / atr_pct) stake = proposed_stake * scale return max(min_stake or 0.0, min(max_stake, stake))