{ "dataset": "economic_projections", "publication_id": "51135", "title": "Economic Projections", "source_url": "https://www.cbo.gov/publication/51135", "description": "CBO's 10-year economic projections of output, prices, labor market, interest rates, income, and GDP components. Overlaps significantly with historical_economic (55022); adds derived rate/share variables and longer projection horizon.", "frequency": "quarterly", "date_format": "YYYYqN (e.g., 2023q1, 2036q4)", "canonical_columns": ["date", "variable", "value"], "notes": { "overlap_with_55022": "78 of 84 historical_economic level variables have identical values on overlapping dates. This dataset adds ~60 derived rate/share variables (_pct_change, _share_of_gdp suffixes).", "census_bls_split": "Starting 2026-02, population and labor force variables are split into Census-based and BLS-based variants. The _census suffix indicates Census basis; the unsuffixed variant uses BLS basis." }, "fields": { "gdp": {"description": "Gross Domestic Product", "unit": "SAAR, billions_of_dollars", "category": "output"}, "gdp_pct_change": {"description": "GDP, percentage change (annual rate)", "unit": "Percent", "category": "output"}, "gnp": {"description": "Gross National Product", "unit": "SAAR, billions_of_dollars", "category": "output"}, "gnp_pct_change": {"description": "GNP, percentage change (annual rate)", "unit": "Percent", "category": "output"}, "real_gdp": {"description": "Real GDP", "unit": "SAAR, Bil.Chn.2017.$", "category": "output"}, "real_gdp_pct_change": {"description": "Real GDP, percentage change (annual rate)", "unit": "Percent", "category": "output"}, "real_gnp": {"description": "Real GNP", "unit": "SAAR, Bil.Chn.2017.$", "category": "output"}, "real_gnp_pct_change": {"description": "Real GNP, percentage change (annual rate)", "unit": "Percent", "category": "output"}, "real_gdp_nfb": {"description": "Real gross value added: nonfarm business", "unit": "SAAR, Bil.Chn.2017.$", "category": "output"}, "real_gdp_nfb_pct_change": {"description": "Real gross value added: nonfarm business, percentage change", "unit": "Percent", "category": "output"}, "gdi": {"description": "Gross Domestic Income", "unit": "SAAR, billions_of_dollars", "category": "income"}, "gdi_pct_change": {"description": "GDI, percentage change (annual rate)", "unit": "Percent", "category": "income"}, "potential_gdp": {"description": "Nominal Potential GDP", "unit": "billions_of_dollars", "category": "potential"}, "potential_gdp_pct_change": {"description": "Potential GDP, percentage change", "unit": "Percent", "category": "potential"}, "real_potential_gdp": {"description": "Real Potential GDP", "unit": "Bil.Chn.2017.$", "category": "potential"}, "real_potential_gdp_pct_change": {"description": "Real Potential GDP, percentage change", "unit": "Percent", "category": "potential"}, "potential_lf": {"description": "Potential Labor Force", "unit": "Millions", "category": "potential"}, "potential_lf_pct_change": {"description": "Potential Labor Force, percentage change", "unit": "Percent", "category": "potential"}, "potential_lf_prod": {"description": "Potential Labor Force Productivity", "unit": "Ratio", "category": "potential"}, "potential_lf_prod_pct_change": {"description": "Potential Labor Force Productivity, percentage change", "unit": "Percent", "category": "potential"}, "potential_lfpr": {"description": "Potential Labor Force Participation Rate", "unit": "Percent", "category": "potential"}, "noncyclical_rate_of_unemployment": {"description": "Noncyclical Rate of Unemployment", "unit": "Percent", "category": "potential"}, "output_gap": {"description": "Output Gap", "unit": "Percent of potential GDP", "category": "potential"}, "nfb_real_potential_gdp": {"description": "Real Potential GDP, nonfarm business sector", "unit": "Index", "category": "potential_nfb"}, "nfb_real_potential_gdp_pct_change": {"description": "Real Potential GDP (NFB), percentage change", "unit": "Percent", "category": "potential_nfb"}, "nfb_potential_hrs_worked": {"description": "Potential Hours Worked, nonfarm business", "unit": "Index", "category": "potential_nfb"}, "nfb_potential_hrs_worked_pct_change": {"description": "Potential Hours Worked (NFB), percentage change", "unit": "Percent", "category": "potential_nfb"}, "nfb_index_capital_services": {"description": "Capital Services Index, nonfarm business", "unit": "Index", "category": "potential_nfb"}, "nfb_index_capital_services_pct_change": {"description": "Capital Services Index (NFB), percentage change", "unit": "Percent", "category": "potential_nfb"}, "nfb_potential_tfp": {"description": "Potential Total Factor Productivity, nonfarm business", "unit": "Index", "category": "potential_nfb"}, "nfb_potential_tfp_pct_change": {"description": "Potential TFP (NFB), percentage change", "unit": "Percent", "category": "potential_nfb"}, "nfb_potential_lab_prod": {"description": "Potential Labor Productivity, nonfarm business", "unit": "Ratio", "category": "potential_nfb"}, "nfb_potential_lab_prod_pct_change": {"description": "Potential Labor Productivity (NFB), percentage change", "unit": "Percent", "category": "potential_nfb"}, "nfb_capital_share": {"description": "Capital Share of Income, nonfarm business", "unit": "Fraction", "category": "potential_nfb"}, "pce_price_index": {"description": "Price index, PCE", "unit": "Index, 2017=100", "category": "prices"}, "pce_price_index_pct_change": {"description": "PCE price index, percentage change", "unit": "Percent", "category": "prices"}, "core_pce_price_index": {"description": "Core PCE price index (excl. food and energy)", "unit": "Index", "category": "prices"}, "core_pce_price_index_pct_change": {"description": "Core PCE price index, percentage change", "unit": "Percent", "category": "prices"}, "pce_medical_price_index": {"description": "PCE medical care price index", "unit": "Index", "category": "prices"}, "pce_medical_price_index_pct_change": {"description": "PCE medical care price index, percentage change", "unit": "Percent", "category": "prices"}, "cpiu": {"description": "CPI-U, all urban consumers", "unit": "Index, 1982-84=100", "category": "prices"}, "cpiu_pct_change": {"description": "CPI-U, percentage change", "unit": "Percent", "category": "prices"}, "core_cpiu": {"description": "Core CPI-U (excl. food and energy)", "unit": "Index", "category": "prices"}, "core_cpiu_pct_change": {"description": "Core CPI-U, percentage change", "unit": "Percent", "category": "prices"}, "chained_cpiu": {"description": "Chained CPI-U", "unit": "Index", "category": "prices"}, "chained_cpiu_pct_change": {"description": "Chained CPI-U, percentage change", "unit": "Percent", "category": "prices"}, "cpiu_medical_price_index": {"description": "CPI-U medical care", "unit": "Index", "category": "prices"}, "cpiu_medical_price_index_pct_change": {"description": "CPI-U medical care, percentage change", "unit": "Percent", "category": "prices"}, "gdp_price_index": {"description": "GDP price index", "unit": "Index, 2017=100", "category": "prices"}, "gdp_price_index_pct_change": {"description": "GDP price index, percentage change", "unit": "Percent", "category": "prices"}, "eci_wages_salaries": {"description": "Employment Cost Index, private wages and salaries", "unit": "Index", "category": "prices"}, "eci_wages_salaries_pct_change": {"description": "ECI wages and salaries, percentage change", "unit": "Percent", "category": "prices"}, "oil_rac_imported": {"description": "Refiners' acquisition cost of crude oil, imported", "unit": "$/barrel", "category": "prices"}, "oil_rac_composite": {"description": "Refiners' acquisition cost of crude oil, composite", "unit": "$/barrel", "category": "prices"}, "oil_price_wti_spot": {"description": "Price of crude oil, West Texas Intermediate (WTI)", "unit": "$/barrel", "category": "prices"}, "nat_gas_price_henry_hub": {"description": "Price of natural gas, Henry Hub", "unit": "$/MMBtu", "category": "prices"}, "house_price_index_fhfa": {"description": "FHFA house price index, purchase only", "unit": "Index", "category": "prices"}, "exchange_rate_export_weighted": {"description": "Nominal exchange rate index (export weighted)", "unit": "Index", "category": "prices"}, "population_civ_16yo": {"description": "Noninstitutional civilian population, 16+ (BLS basis)", "unit": "Millions", "category": "population"}, "population_civ_16yo_pct_change": {"description": "Population (BLS), percentage change", "unit": "Percent", "category": "population"}, "population_civ_16yo_census": {"description": "Noninstitutional civilian population, 16+ (Census basis)", "unit": "Millions", "category": "population"}, "population_civ_16yo_census_pct_change": {"description": "Population (Census), percentage change", "unit": "Percent", "category": "population"}, "households": {"description": "Households (total occupied housing units)", "unit": "Millions", "category": "population"}, "labor_force": {"description": "Civilian labor force, 16+ (BLS basis)", "unit": "Millions", "category": "labor"}, "labor_force_pct_change": {"description": "Labor force (BLS), percentage change", "unit": "Percent", "category": "labor"}, "labor_force_census": {"description": "Civilian labor force, 16+ (Census basis)", "unit": "Millions", "category": "labor"}, "labor_force_census_pct_change": {"description": "Labor force (Census), percentage change", "unit": "Percent", "category": "labor"}, "lfpr_16yo": {"description": "Labor force participation rate, 16+ (BLS basis)", "unit": "Percent", "category": "labor"}, "lfpr_16yo_census": {"description": "Labor force participation rate, 16+ (Census basis)", "unit": "Percent", "category": "labor"}, "empl_civ_16yo": {"description": "Civilian employment, 16+ (BLS basis, household survey)", "unit": "Millions", "category": "labor"}, "empl_civ_16yo_pct_change": {"description": "Employment (BLS), percentage change", "unit": "Percent", "category": "labor"}, "empl_civ_16yo_census": {"description": "Civilian employment, 16+ (Census basis, household survey)", "unit": "Millions", "category": "labor"}, "empl_civ_16yo_census_pct_change": {"description": "Employment (Census), percentage change", "unit": "Percent", "category": "labor"}, "unemployment_rate": {"description": "Unemployment rate, civilian, 16+", "unit": "Percent", "category": "labor"}, "empl_payroll_nf": {"description": "Employment, total nonfarm (establishment survey)", "unit": "Millions", "category": "labor"}, "empl_payroll_nf_pct_change": {"description": "Nonfarm payroll employment, percentage change", "unit": "Percent", "category": "labor"}, "output_per_hr_nfb": {"description": "Labor productivity (nonfarm business sector)", "unit": "Index", "category": "labor"}, "output_per_hr_nfb_pct_change": {"description": "Labor productivity (NFB), percentage change", "unit": "Percent", "category": "labor"}, "hours_nfb": {"description": "Hours of all persons (nonfarm business sector)", "unit": "Index", "category": "labor"}, "hours_nfb_pct_change": {"description": "Hours worked (NFB), percentage change", "unit": "Percent", "category": "labor"}, "treasury_note_rate_10yr": {"description": "10-Year Treasury note yield", "unit": "Percent", "category": "interest"}, "treasury_bill_rate_3mo": {"description": "3-Month Treasury bill rate", "unit": "Percent", "category": "interest"}, "fed_funds_rate": {"description": "Federal funds rate", "unit": "Percent", "category": "interest"}, "personal_income": {"description": "Personal income", "unit": "SAAR, billions_of_dollars", "category": "income"}, "personal_income_share_of_gdp": {"description": "Personal income as share of GDP", "unit": "Percent", "category": "income"}, "compensation": {"description": "Compensation of employees, paid", "unit": "SAAR, billions_of_dollars", "category": "income"}, "compensation_share_of_gdp": {"description": "Compensation as share of GDP", "unit": "Percent", "category": "income"}, "wages_and_salaries": {"description": "Wages and salaries", "unit": "SAAR, billions_of_dollars", "category": "income"}, "wages_and_salaries_share_of_gdp": {"description": "Wages and salaries as share of GDP", "unit": "Percent", "category": "income"}, "nonwage_income": {"description": "Nonwage income", "unit": "SAAR, billions_of_dollars", "category": "income"}, "nonwage_income_share_of_gdp": {"description": "Nonwage income as share of GDP", "unit": "Percent", "category": "income"}, "prop_inc_farm_adj": {"description": "Proprietors' income, farm, with IVA & CCAdj", "unit": "SAAR, billions_of_dollars", "category": "income"}, "prop_inc_farm_adj_share_of_gdp": {"description": "Farm proprietors' income as share of GDP", "unit": "Percent", "category": "income"}, "prop_inc_nonfarm_adj": {"description": "Proprietors' income, nonfarm, with IVA & CCAdj", "unit": "SAAR, billions_of_dollars", "category": "income"}, "prop_inc_nonfarm_adj_share_of_gdp": {"description": "Nonfarm proprietors' income as share of GDP", "unit": "Percent", "category": "income"}, "rental_inc_adj": {"description": "Rental income, with CCAdj", "unit": "SAAR, billions_of_dollars", "category": "income"}, "rental_inc_adj_share_of_gdp": {"description": "Rental income as share of GDP", "unit": "Percent", "category": "income"}, "interest_inc_pers": {"description": "Personal interest income", "unit": "SAAR, billions_of_dollars", "category": "income"}, "interest_inc_pers_share_of_gdp": {"description": "Personal interest income as share of GDP", "unit": "Percent", "category": "income"}, "dividend_inc_pers": {"description": "Personal dividend income", "unit": "SAAR, billions_of_dollars", "category": "income"}, "dividend_inc_pers_share_of_gdp": {"description": "Personal dividend income as share of GDP", "unit": "Percent", "category": "income"}, "corp_profits_adj": {"description": "Corporate profits, with IVA & CCAdj", "unit": "SAAR, billions_of_dollars", "category": "income"}, "corp_profits_adj_share_of_gdp": {"description": "Corporate profits as share of GDP", "unit": "Percent", "category": "income"}, "corp_profits_domestic_adj": {"description": "Corporate profits, domestic, with IVA & CCAdj", "unit": "SAAR, billions_of_dollars", "category": "income"}, "corp_profits_domestic_adj_share_of_gdp": {"description": "Domestic corporate profits as share of GDP", "unit": "Percent", "category": "income"}, "current_account_balance": {"description": "Balance on current account", "unit": "SAAR, billions_of_dollars", "category": "income"}, "pce": {"description": "Personal consumption expenditures (nominal)", "unit": "SAAR, billions_of_dollars", "category": "gdp_nominal"}, "pce_pct_change": {"description": "PCE (nominal), percentage change", "unit": "Percent", "category": "gdp_nominal"}, "gross_pri_dom_invest": {"description": "Gross private domestic investment (nominal)", "unit": "SAAR, billions_of_dollars", "category": "gdp_nominal"}, "gross_pri_dom_invest_pct_change": {"description": "Gross private domestic investment (nominal), pct change", "unit": "Percent", "category": "gdp_nominal"}, "nonres_fixed_invest": {"description": "Nonresidential fixed investment (nominal)", "unit": "SAAR, billions_of_dollars", "category": "gdp_nominal"}, "nonres_fixed_invest_pct_change": {"description": "Nonresidential fixed investment (nominal), pct change", "unit": "Percent", "category": "gdp_nominal"}, "res_fixed_invest": {"description": "Residential fixed investment (nominal)", "unit": "SAAR, billions_of_dollars", "category": "gdp_nominal"}, "res_fixed_invest_pct_change": {"description": "Residential fixed investment (nominal), pct change", "unit": "Percent", "category": "gdp_nominal"}, "change_pri_inv": {"description": "Change in private inventories (nominal)", "unit": "SAAR, billions_of_dollars", "category": "gdp_nominal"}, "government_c_gi": {"description": "Government consumption & gross investment (nominal)", "unit": "SAAR, billions_of_dollars", "category": "gdp_nominal"}, "government_c_gi_pct_change": {"description": "Government C&GI (nominal), percentage change", "unit": "Percent", "category": "gdp_nominal"}, "federal_government_c_gi": {"description": "Federal government C&GI (nominal)", "unit": "SAAR, billions_of_dollars", "category": "gdp_nominal"}, "federal_government_c_gi_pct_change": {"description": "Federal government C&GI (nominal), pct change", "unit": "Percent", "category": "gdp_nominal"}, "sl_government_c_gi": {"description": "State and local government C&GI (nominal)", "unit": "SAAR, billions_of_dollars", "category": "gdp_nominal"}, "sl_government_c_gi_pct_change": {"description": "State and local government C&GI (nominal), pct change", "unit": "Percent", "category": "gdp_nominal"}, "net_exports": {"description": "Net exports of goods and services (nominal)", "unit": "SAAR, billions_of_dollars", "category": "gdp_nominal"}, "net_exports_pct_change": {"description": "Net exports (nominal), percentage change", "unit": "Percent", "category": "gdp_nominal"}, "exports": {"description": "Exports (nominal)", "unit": "SAAR, billions_of_dollars", "category": "gdp_nominal"}, "exports_pct_change": {"description": "Exports (nominal), percentage change", "unit": "Percent", "category": "gdp_nominal"}, "imports": {"description": "Imports (nominal)", "unit": "SAAR, billions_of_dollars", "category": "gdp_nominal"}, "imports_pct_change": {"description": "Imports (nominal), percentage change", "unit": "Percent", "category": "gdp_nominal"}, "real_pce": {"description": "Personal consumption expenditures (real)", "unit": "SAAR, Bil.Chn.2017.$", "category": "gdp_real"}, "real_pce_pct_change": {"description": "PCE (real), percentage change", "unit": "Percent", "category": "gdp_real"}, "real_gross_pri_dom_invest": {"description": "Gross private domestic investment (real)", "unit": "SAAR, Bil.Chn.2017.$", "category": "gdp_real"}, "real_gross_pri_dom_invest_pct_change": {"description": "Gross private domestic investment (real), pct change", "unit": "Percent", "category": "gdp_real"}, "real_nonres_fixed_invest": {"description": "Nonresidential fixed investment (real)", "unit": "SAAR, Bil.Chn.2017.$", "category": "gdp_real"}, "real_nonres_fixed_invest_pct_change": {"description": "Nonresidential fixed investment (real), pct change", "unit": "Percent", "category": "gdp_real"}, "real_res_fixed_invest": {"description": "Residential fixed investment (real)", "unit": "SAAR, Bil.Chn.2017.$", "category": "gdp_real"}, "real_res_fixed_invest_pct_change": {"description": "Residential fixed investment (real), pct change", "unit": "Percent", "category": "gdp_real"}, "real_change_pri_invest": {"description": "Change in private inventories (real)", "unit": "SAAR, Bil.Chn.2017.$", "category": "gdp_real"}, "real_government_c_gi": {"description": "Government consumption & gross investment (real)", "unit": "SAAR, Bil.Chn.2017.$", "category": "gdp_real"}, "real_government_c_gi_pct_change": {"description": "Government C&GI (real), percentage change", "unit": "Percent", "category": "gdp_real"}, "real_federal_government_c_gi": {"description": "Federal government C&GI (real)", "unit": "SAAR, Bil.Chn.2017.$", "category": "gdp_real"}, "real_federal_government_c_gi_pct_change": {"description": "Federal government C&GI (real), pct change", "unit": "Percent", "category": "gdp_real"}, "real_sl_government_c_gi": {"description": "State and local government C&GI (real)", "unit": "SAAR, Bil.Chn.2017.$", "category": "gdp_real"}, "real_sl_government_c_gi_pct_change": {"description": "State and local government C&GI (real), pct change", "unit": "Percent", "category": "gdp_real"}, "real_net_exports": {"description": "Net exports of goods and services (real)", "unit": "SAAR, Bil.Chn.2017.$", "category": "gdp_real"}, "real_net_exports_pct_change": {"description": "Net exports (real), percentage change", "unit": "Percent", "category": "gdp_real"}, "real_exports": {"description": "Exports (real)", "unit": "SAAR, Bil.Chn.2017.$", "category": "gdp_real"}, "real_exports_pct_change": {"description": "Exports (real), percentage change", "unit": "Percent", "category": "gdp_real"}, "real_imports": {"description": "Imports (real)", "unit": "SAAR, Bil.Chn.2017.$", "category": "gdp_real"}, "real_imports_pct_change": {"description": "Imports (real), percentage change", "unit": "Percent", "category": "gdp_real"} } }