{
 "cells": [
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "id": "d7968d57",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# Préparation commune des TP Python\n",
    "# Le notebook utilise uniquement les ressources fournies dans le dossier codes/.\n",
    "from pathlib import Path\n",
    "import importlib.util\n",
    "import subprocess\n",
    "import sys\n",
    "\n",
    "REQUIRED_PACKAGES = {'numpy': 'numpy', 'pandas': 'pandas', 'matplotlib': 'matplotlib'}\n",
    "missing = [package for module, package in REQUIRED_PACKAGES.items()\n",
    "           if importlib.util.find_spec(module) is None]\n",
    "if missing:\n",
    "    print(\"Installation des paquets manquants :\", \", \".join(missing))\n",
    "    subprocess.check_call([sys.executable, \"-m\", \"pip\", \"install\", *missing])\n",
    "\n",
    "WORKDIR = Path.cwd().resolve()\n",
    "CODES_DIR = WORKDIR.parent if WORKDIR.name == \"correction\" else WORKDIR\n",
    "TOOLBOX_DIR = CODES_DIR / \"toolbox\"\n",
    "DATA_DIR = CODES_DIR / \"data\"\n",
    "if not CODES_DIR.is_dir():\n",
    "    raise FileNotFoundError(\"Exécutez le notebook depuis le dossier codes/.\" )\n",
    "if TOOLBOX_DIR.is_dir():\n",
    "    sys.path.insert(0, str(TOOLBOX_DIR))\n",
    "\n",
    "DATA_FILE = DATA_DIR / \"temperature_historique.csv\"\n",
    "if not DATA_FILE.is_file():\n",
    "    raise FileNotFoundError(\n",
    "        f\"Donnée du cours introuvable : {DATA_FILE}. \"\n",
    "        \"Téléchargez le dossier codes complet, avec data/.\"\n",
    "    )\n",
    "\n",
    "print(\"Environnement prêt :\", CODES_DIR)\n"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "id": "be1e8dfb",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "# TP1 — Données climatiques historiques et tendances\n",
    "\n",
    "**Date de la séance :** mercredi 2 septembre 2026, 08:30–10:30\n",
    "\n",
    "**Objectifs**\n",
    "- Manipuler une série temporelle de température globale\n",
    "- Estimer une tendance de réchauffement climatique\n",
    "- Distinguer variabilité naturelle et tendance de long terme\n",
    "- Projeter la date de dépassement de seuils de réchauffement (+1,5°C, +2°C)\n",
    "\n",
    "**Prérequis** : numpy, pandas, matplotlib (bases de manipulation de tableaux et de graphiques)."
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "id": "6ff96383",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "import numpy as np\n",
    "import pandas as pd\n",
    "import matplotlib.pyplot as plt"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "id": "6da0b839",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "## Partie 1 — Chargement des données"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "id": "32956ef0",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "df = pd.read_csv(DATA_DIR / \"temperature_historique.csv\")\n",
    "print(df.shape)\n",
    "df.head()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "id": "788079ba",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "**Question 1.** Tracez l'anomalie de température de 1880 à 2023."
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "id": "044145a1",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# YOUR CODE HERE"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "id": "ecdc87b9",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "## Partie 2 — Tendance linéaire"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "id": "fca6b15c",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "**Question 2.** Calculez la tendance linéaire avec `np.polyfit`. Ajoutez la droite de tendance au graphique."
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "id": "7057973d",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# YOUR CODE HERE"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "id": "1f94a217",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "## Partie 3 — Variabilité naturelle et tendance longue"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "id": "3981289b",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "**Question 3.** Calculez une moyenne mobile sur 10 ans. Tracez l'anomalie, la tendance et la moyenne mobile."
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "id": "f071558c",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# YOUR CODE HERE"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "id": "2446feff",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "## Partie 4 — Moyennes décennales"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "id": "c2d48770",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "**Question 4.** Calculez la température moyenne par décennie (1880-1889, 1890-1899, ..., 2010-2019). Tracez un graphique en barres."
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "id": "193ec7a3",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# YOUR CODE HERE"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "id": "8143df95",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "## Partie 5 — Projection"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "id": "bce416d5",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "**Question 5.** En prolongeant la tendance linéaire, en quelle année atteint-on +1,5°C ? +2°C ?"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "id": "8997aabf",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# YOUR CODE HERE"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "id": "75c14d62",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "## Interprétation\n",
    "\n",
    "**Répondez en quelques phrases :**\n",
    "1. Quelle est la vitesse de réchauffement observée depuis 1880 ?\n",
    "2. Est-ce que la tendance s'accélère ou reste-t-elle constante ?\n",
    "3. Quelle est la différence entre variabilité naturelle et tendance climatique ?\n",
    "4. Que représente l'anomalie de température par rapport à la météo quotidienne ?"
   ]
  }
 ],
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