{ "created_utc": "2026-10-11T19:40:12.096012+00:00", "config": "config/bias_correction/sep_ondj.json", "config_contents": { "schema_version": 1, "name": "sep_ondj", "description": "Rainfall-amount bias-correction benchmark: September-initialized ECMWF SEAS5, ONDJ season and its calendar months, every 0.25 deg cell of Ethiopia (docs/47).", "cycle": "config/cycles/sep_2026_ondj.json", "project_config": "config/ondj/project.json", "targets": [ "Oct", "Nov", "Dec", "Jan", "ONDJ" ], "training_years": [ 1993, 2016 ], "test_years": [ 2017, 2024 ], "all_years": [ 1993, 2024 ], "forecast_year": 2026, "cells": { "path": "data/masks/ethiopia_common.nc", "variable": "region_mask" }, "regions": { "ethiopia": { "label": "All Ethiopia", "path": "data/masks/ethiopia_common.nc", "variable": "region_mask" }, "ondj_domain": { "label": "ONDJ R3 (Deyr) domain", "path": "data/masks/init09_ONDJ_regime_domain.nc", "variable": "season_domain" } }, "primary_region": "ethiopia", "reference_method": "mvs", "smoothing_alpha": 0.5, "dry_threshold_mm": 1.0, "pit_bins": 10, "methods": { "raw": {}, "ls": { "min_model_mean": 0.1 }, "mvs": { "ratio_bounds": [ 0.5, 2.0 ], "min_model_sd": 1.0 }, "vs": { "ratio_bounds": null, "min_model_sd": 1.0 }, "sqrt_mvs": { "ratio_bounds": [ 0.5, 2.0 ], "min_model_sd": 0.1, "space": "sqrt" }, "pt": { "b_bounds": [ 0.1, 3.0 ] }, "dc": { "ratio_bounds": [ 0.2, 5.0 ], "min_model_mean": 0.1 }, "loci": { "wet_threshold": 1.0 }, "eqm": { "extrapolation": "constant_ratio", "wet_threshold": 1.0 }, "gqm": { "wet_threshold": 1.0 }, "dqm": { "extrapolation": "constant_ratio", "ratio_bounds": [ 0.2, 5.0 ], "min_model_mean": 0.1, "wet_threshold": 1.0 }, "qdm": { "max_ratio": 5.0, "wet_threshold": 1.0 }, "sdm": { "wet_threshold": 1.0 }, "cdft": { "min_model_mean": 0.1 } }, "example_cell_quantiles": [ 0.1, 0.5, 0.9 ], "confirmation": { "methods": [ "mvs", "ls", "vs", "sqrt_mvs", "pt", "dc", "loci", "eqm", "gqm", "dqm", "qdm", "sdm", "cdft" ], "selection_region": "ethiopia", "reliability_bins": 10, "reliability_methods": [ "mvs", "sqrt_mvs", "gqm", "eqm" ], "output_root": "outputs/bias_correction_benchmark/sep_ondj/confirmation" }, "output_root": "outputs/bias_correction_benchmark/sep_ondj" }, "provenance": { "commit": "007ce47883266ccca56149ff986167bbfd0abd5d", "uncommitted_changes": false, "code_sha256": { "scripts/bias_methods.py": "4d7cedd8f5747220e68a5926ca16460c4a54c259515f468269aa90e7a6f11e0b", "scripts/bias_benchmark.py": "9965903d553dd4472890c95a85fd1c9f7edc054a9fa306b836559791cb5d441f", "scripts/significance.py": "3143761d5d201e4e62df9ad923757b952a3ea768b060c8a722afcd9b3d6a9963", "scripts/calibration_core.py": "f0635cc563e6d6aedb62799847b83fbb0f5cc12ee9f8c48ad48dda15a054fb62", "scripts/run_calibration.py": "1f34e8fc92fdd15983f1633de67fcb6a35882911b6b7072ca865df99d907afd0" }, "config": { "path": "config/bias_correction/sep_ondj.json", "sha256": "190fcb29728ce2155391d0d8da98f53dce8e6a511cb341b6cdc650d62b5f86cf" }, "project_config": { "path": "config/ondj/project.json", "sha256": "e9ad8cfb30b21a731e86222ae0b592df124600d457d6fcd46d7a508a831c63de" }, "masks": { "cells": { "path": "data/masks/ethiopia_common.nc", "sha256": "57ad8861c598abb9f175012920e5d0ef058e5b643cd6e4987cad3da6ac0b9e16" }, "ethiopia": { "path": "data/masks/ethiopia_common.nc", "sha256": "57ad8861c598abb9f175012920e5d0ef058e5b643cd6e4987cad3da6ac0b9e16" }, "ondj_domain": { "path": "data/masks/init09_ONDJ_regime_domain.nc", "sha256": "336c572d69af3c718de2ef0e537a2d2d98d73b98cab9b02f0b234501a523d83f" } }, "inputs": { "Oct": { "folder": "data/processed/init09_Oct", "files": 65, "sha256": "0d2561be8800f597bd5f38f02dc670c9861a3aea08dc795d0d3e1105a909b6db" }, "Nov": { "folder": "data/processed/init09_Nov", "files": 65, "sha256": "73d9d400dfa5457a448855f4a211901bf6884d03575b6efeee391376f3fa995a" }, "Dec": { "folder": "data/processed/init09_Dec", "files": 65, "sha256": "df5a657046e479f4a70116e69305bec1938217a49df5b88475b272b397354a2d" }, "Jan": { "folder": "data/processed/init09_Jan", "files": 65, "sha256": "fc51a4c4480bdc0b21d3f968861435ae0221b9660a0cd98c3ced69adad04e489" }, "ONDJ": { "folder": "data/processed/init09_ONDJ", "files": 65, "sha256": "a8ba572412dc96aef88757296d4a01c83453576b53f79bf2ec734bd88c073fa7" } }, "scoring_version": 2, "python": "3.11.9", "numpy": "1.26.4" }, "protocol": "Benchmark rainfall-amount bias-correction methods member by member, for every grid cell and target (docs/47).\n\nRead-only experiment: never touches the operational forecasts. Configured by config/bias_correction/.json.\n\nDesigns (one score per year: area-weighted over a region; years weighted equally):\n training : leave-one-year-out within the training years; the scored year never enters a fit (clean; screened)\n operational : fit on the training years, scored on the test years (exploratory; these years were seen before)\n full : leave-one-year-out within all observed years, for per-cell maps and distribution checks (descriptive)\n forecast : fit on all observed years, corrected forecast-year members of every method (member-by-member comparison)\nScores: ensemble CRPS (mm) of the empirical distribution delivered to users and its CRPSS against the CHIRPS training\nclimatology (primary); the fair CRPS (Ferro 2014) as a separately labelled diagnostic; ensemble-mean bias, MAE, RMSE\nand correlation; spread-error ratio; rank histograms; tercile RPS/RPSS of alpha-smoothed member counts (no\nclimatology blend); distribution of the pooled corrected members against CHIRPS (mean, standard deviation, 10/50/90th\npercentiles, exactly-0 and at-or-below-threshold shares); coverage of the amount and probability scores; how often\neach method's limits, caps and fallbacks act.\nScreening: each method against the reference (operational MVS) per target and score (CRPS, fair CRPS, RPS):\none-sided sign-flip test on the training-design per-year scores and no harm over the test years. Two\nmultiplicity families are reported: within one method across the targets (\"screen_pass\") and across every\nmethod and target of the benchmark (\"screen_pass_family\"). A screening pass is not an adoption decision.", "gate_rule": "Screening rule (docs/36 rule applied as a screen): a method passes for a target and score if, on the leave-one-year-out 1993-2016 per-year scores, its mean improvement over mvs has a one-sided sign-flip p-value below 0.05 after Holm adjustment, and its mean score over 2017-2024 (fits on 1993-2016) is not worse. 'screen_pass': Holm across the 5 targets of one method. 'screen_pass_family': Holm across every method and target of the benchmark for that score. A screening pass is not an operational adoption decision (see the confirmation run).", "methods": { "raw": { "label": "Raw ECMWF (no correction)", "family": "baseline", "definition": "x' = x (the uncorrected model; baseline, not a candidate)", "references": [ "Johnson et al. 2019" ], "member_wise": true, "uses_forecast_distribution": false, "parameters": {} }, "ls": { "label": "Linear Scaling", "family": "scaling", "definition": "x' = x * mu_obs / mu_model (multiplicative mean correction; ratio 1 where mu_model < 0.1 mm)", "references": [ "Lenderink et al. 2007", "Teutschbein & Seibert 2012" ], "member_wise": true, "uses_forecast_distribution": false, "parameters": { "min_model_mean": 0.1 } }, "mvs": { "label": "Mean-Variance Scaling (operational)", "family": "scaling", "definition": "x' = max(0, mu_obs + r (x - mu_model)), r = clip(sd_obs/sd_model, 0.5, 2); r = 1 if sd_model < 1 mm", "references": [ "Torralba et al. 2017", "Manzanas et al. 2019" ], "member_wise": true, "uses_forecast_distribution": false, "parameters": { "ratio_bounds": [ 0.5, 2.0 ], "min_model_sd": 1.0 } }, "vs": { "label": "Variance Scaling (unbounded)", "family": "scaling", "definition": "Same algebra and the same r = 1 fallback (sd_model < 1 mm) as MVS, without the 0.5-2 ratio limits", "references": [ "Teutschbein & Seibert 2012" ], "member_wise": true, "uses_forecast_distribution": false, "parameters": { "ratio_bounds": null, "min_model_sd": 1.0 } }, "sqrt_mvs": { "label": "Square-root-space Mean-Variance Scaling", "family": "scaling", "definition": "MVS applied to sqrt(x) (r limits 0.5-2; r = 1 if the sqrt-space sd < 0.1), clipped at 0 and squared back (docs/36)", "references": [ "Manzanas et al. 2019" ], "member_wise": true, "uses_forecast_distribution": false, "parameters": { "ratio_bounds": [ 0.5, 2.0 ], "min_model_sd": 0.1, "space": "sqrt" } }, "pt": { "label": "Power Transformation", "family": "scaling", "definition": "x' = a x^b: b (0.1-3) matches the coefficient of variation where reachable (bound hits reported), a the mean", "references": [ "Leander & Buishand 2007", "Teutschbein & Seibert 2012" ], "member_wise": true, "uses_forecast_distribution": false, "parameters": { "b_bounds": [ 0.1, 3.0 ] } }, "dc": { "label": "Delta Change", "family": "change-preserving", "definition": "Training-year CHIRPS totals times a = forecast ensemble mean / model mean (a in 0.2-5): historical scenarios, not corrected members", "references": [ "Hay et al. 2000", "Teutschbein & Seibert 2012" ], "member_wise": false, "uses_forecast_distribution": true, "parameters": { "ratio_bounds": [ 0.2, 5.0 ], "min_model_mean": 0.1 } }, "loci": { "label": "Local Intensity Scaling", "family": "scaling", "definition": "Model threshold with the observed frequency of totals above 1 mm, then intensity scaling above it (designed for daily rainfall; here monthly or seasonal totals)", "references": [ "Schmidli et al. 2006" ], "member_wise": true, "uses_forecast_distribution": false, "parameters": { "wet_threshold": 1.0 } }, "eqm": { "label": "Empirical Quantile Mapping", "family": "quantile mapping", "definition": "x' = Q_obs(F_model(x)) with the dry policy; constant-ratio extrapolation outside the training range", "references": [ "Boe et al. 2007", "Themessl et al. 2011", "Gudmundsson et al. 2012" ], "member_wise": true, "uses_forecast_distribution": false, "parameters": { "extrapolation": "constant_ratio", "wet_threshold": 1.0 } }, "gqm": { "label": "Gamma Quantile Mapping", "family": "quantile mapping", "definition": "x' = G_obs^-1(G_model(x)), G = dry mass (<= 1 mm) + gamma by weighted maximum likelihood, with the dry policy; linear scaling where fewer than 3 wet values", "references": [ "Piani et al. 2010" ], "member_wise": true, "uses_forecast_distribution": false, "parameters": { "wet_threshold": 1.0 } }, "dqm": { "label": "Detrended Quantile Mapping", "family": "change-preserving", "definition": "a * EQM(x / a), a = forecast ensemble mean / model mean (0.2-5): removes and reapplies the bounded ratio; exact preservation of the final mean anomaly is not guaranteed", "references": [ "Cannon et al. 2015" ], "member_wise": true, "uses_forecast_distribution": true, "parameters": { "extrapolation": "constant_ratio", "ratio_bounds": [ 0.2, 5.0 ], "min_model_mean": 0.1, "wet_threshold": 1.0 } }, "qdm": { "label": "Quantile Delta Mapping", "family": "change-preserving", "definition": "x' = Q_obs(tau) * x / Q_model(tau), tau = rank of x in the forecast ensemble; change capped at 5 and replaced by Q_obs(tau) where Q_model(tau) <= 1 mm (both reported), so preservation is partial there", "references": [ "Cannon et al. 2015" ], "member_wise": true, "uses_forecast_distribution": true, "parameters": { "max_ratio": 5.0, "wet_threshold": 1.0 } }, "sdm": { "label": "Scaled Distribution Mapping", "family": "change-preserving", "definition": "Switanek et al. (2017) precipitation steps 1-7: gamma fits, recurrence intervals interpolated to the forecast's length, scaled CDF, rain-member count; model climatology with equal-year weights", "references": [ "Switanek et al. 2017" ], "member_wise": true, "uses_forecast_distribution": true, "parameters": { "wet_threshold": 1.0 } }, "cdft": { "label": "CDF-transform", "family": "change-preserving", "definition": "F_obs,f = F_obs(F_model^-1(F_forecast)); x' = F_obs,f^-1(F_forecast(x)); implementation choices: model and forecast first scaled to the CHIRPS mean, values stay within the scaled forecast range", "references": [ "Michelangeli et al. 2009", "Vrac et al. 2012" ], "member_wise": true, "uses_forecast_distribution": true, "parameters": { "min_model_mean": 0.1 } } }, "targets": { "Oct": { "tag": "init09_Oct", "cells": 1484, "methods": { "raw": { "training": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 30.005356317606157, 25.166410530929962, 31.228890034987934, 30.832156332793133, 101.89148674905377, 32.5537071531873, 37.327021769208166, 49.891276210865335, 25.75827566480982, 32.6926427496666, 41.64052890727736, 24.74049350439249, 24.235949415195932, 41.82025374629252, 37.845114670733764, 34.2765548060186, 25.565215012161378, 43.23458582053914, 33.48234476467671, 36.925958543890744, 26.270925611456057, 41.406031310184396, 34.73055024620226, 21.76620226718833 ], "crps_clim": [ 23.77074843142727, 22.60409869067204, 18.38031484850475, 25.959936518793185, 123.34118991059545, 35.588714164776064, 39.220907889439694, 39.49590059501811, 18.35094398856043, 19.018950574892433, 27.831563580748035, 21.968021793696813, 21.56629431892967, 37.55562250213345, 20.343092113101918, 25.75266643361196, 21.96609944248159, 25.58890298078945, 24.791989124537817, 21.665834698643923, 21.79847843728042, 34.8315441627334, 25.585209165511976, 22.091569801149358 ], "crps_fair": [ 29.197604229423206, 24.323045963858657, 30.413624064526154, 30.004382043874607, 100.85471617444219, 31.793577777482554, 36.428907318022645, 49.035447933708994, 24.98418996978875, 31.756874833883177, 40.723579068851464, 23.87057578395599, 23.501434704912405, 41.01262133052104, 37.033144248911654, 33.49100554196277, 24.67667624748489, 42.33641920852203, 32.66606693283249, 36.14299673611076, 25.38498557201276, 40.639810911042545, 33.73488612728524, 21.043090800139623 ], "crps_fair_clim": [ 22.51064113159216, 21.34178182693399, 17.109998394156545, 24.703975408517493, 122.2696629923497, 34.35098937579959, 37.99006225524478, 38.26557578034132, 17.080571907583543, 17.74984365790482, 26.57914721869575, 20.704500238866018, 20.302011916608773, 36.321622918341355, 19.07649303993666, 24.496312766356763, 20.70257424683409, 24.33223915547966, 23.533815992682083, 20.40174081976945, 20.534635777607914, 33.59238533966214, 24.32853834433991, 20.828282238756913 ], "rps": [ 0.5097521718085509, 0.52635117369513, 0.6185767599393275, 0.6444200778511465, 0.28762289750210746, 0.38502108498910537, 0.37893193903546585, 0.5849439778326119, 0.46500625356232267, 0.6528861206279444, 0.769984981306672, 0.41352775994262986, 0.5030290227279658, 0.47691433236866887, 0.6735582451022085, 0.5313702672578321, 0.4295982233285111, 0.7453296348497013, 0.6001176045578692, 0.6355222192733201, 0.4009002910313957, 0.5068096791938632, 0.5004740789726699, 0.43993682057769967 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.43940389525455414, 0.46658159808332234, 0.4078016609722334, 0.5058326556309144, 0.5395139575622566, 0.49558246733465433, 0.4802715225811077, 0.49404333105867937, 0.39146218082661743, 0.427716413607736, 0.5144532326749148, 0.3688788606345833, 0.45641496128233255, 0.4825359164875749, 0.4144568430509284, 0.43646088297845814, 0.42094222250140517, 0.4840252597737128, 0.47195865794782255, 0.4060822454153488, 0.4076181814082607, 0.4985033826792915, 0.4183880428687596, 0.4537770988799093 ], "bias": [ -16.512607304207517, 23.236888053672875, 30.952853670067288, 40.4650004118433, -115.25443988058313, -16.897294922770953, -17.467152738957925, -44.93408620757145, 5.367973934999696, 21.767575393012322, 59.56667154094472, 14.959351457101526, 29.45700498002893, -35.07883640156357, 51.10230086789692, -17.165205928918425, -0.3119469891967177, 60.24488851576018, 27.141102202112275, 22.18194798609705, -10.389519330243239, -37.93719622697835, 14.627116259702237, 15.390087565263094 ], "mae": [ 38.6530912616546, 37.26773111234299, 43.887155173308386, 46.198726028516326, 120.80658205916455, 43.268529283348094, 49.87973781298854, 61.35925968572308, 36.152534892329584, 48.54031969710913, 60.667833803302734, 34.53201214698672, 36.28937563731935, 53.21299106018731, 52.99800557221298, 44.57637810753911, 34.35749049603382, 62.06096479163677, 48.26892517607435, 50.02512243654447, 34.982313678132, 52.19484975397728, 49.31013508256115, 31.930193919835197 ], "mse": [ 2894.3970401041265, 2256.785575008601, 3587.168575687687, 3287.825305475221, 22670.345816223235, 3674.2010767163456, 4555.257365663158, 6380.943568006586, 2329.51497201238, 3725.6092074638964, 5409.898186951264, 2433.0353630679315, 2281.34452403198, 4686.281786963513, 4838.090050124645, 3762.606628506497, 2134.6270470512773, 6043.49680774741, 3829.912203339797, 4262.053414971749, 2200.8610961240965, 4501.870367407831, 3895.2841357118523, 1546.0590623515664 ], "var": [ 1600.4388452106464, 1709.8104066407682, 1514.311027178401, 1536.017844893886, 2325.418079416858, 1388.3820913315853, 1932.0307655074005, 1842.7205920877796, 1382.1309417162702, 2026.2976163529565, 2005.8420075623949, 1757.2222588846018, 1267.1449966413757, 1462.7276194045994, 1497.719188268946, 1438.3678237640531, 1842.599670436332, 1902.9039242430001, 1611.4601545914309, 1383.5053247337476, 1874.0058707329297, 1378.7901039087274, 2243.993123535389, 1247.7032654408606 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00042937246861169943, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004263336225917233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00015937118772514544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008557060912034227, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ], "dry": [ 0.019058440487737277, 0.004295515497969807, 0.002100038127814414, 0.003820214167867007, 0.012449392884199667, 0.0049136612137434706, 0.010781566857612264, 0.010362039512688838, 0.004744409468199271, 0.0062259527280327225, 0.004828579615801729, 0.012179477281985138, 0.00393664999663946, 0.0027782733558857397, 0.0004263336225917233, 0.007619215234549173, 0.005679143407550773, 0.0061447265141890564, 0.008993629235987887, 0.0076786151793445745, 0.004862504401269701, 0.0020573454054196986, 0.00023803501801351884, 0.005953789480607849 ], "obs_dry": [ 0.002004652179585805, 0.06871139430943224, 0.050747259447703114, 0.0613803769402938, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.038093721075830686, 0.05804151922046919, 0.04408357028463322, 0.011326352604367502, 0.06403114542630457, 0.0013347557965737986, 0.04125558222991446, 0.0033520117876989935, 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