{
  "created_utc": "2026-10-12T20:54:10.484158+00:00",
  "config": "config/bias_correction/jan_fmam_ratio_limits.json",
  "config_contents": {
    "schema_version": 1,
    "name": "jan_fmam_ratio_limits",
    "description": "MVS ratio-limit study: January-initialized ECMWF SEAS5, FMAM season and its calendar months, every 0.25 deg cell of Ethiopia (docs/47). Operational MVS (spread ratio limited to 0.5-2) against the same correction with limits 1/3-3, 1/4-4 and none.",
    "cycle": "config/cycles/jan_2026_fmam.json",
    "project_config": "config/fmam/project.json",
    "targets": [
      "Feb",
      "Mar",
      "Apr",
      "May",
      "FMAM"
    ],
    "training_years": [
      1993,
      2016
    ],
    "test_years": [
      2017,
      2025
    ],
    "all_years": [
      1993,
      2025
    ],
    "forecast_year": 2026,
    "cells": {
      "path": "data/masks/ethiopia_common.nc",
      "variable": "region_mask"
    },
    "regions": {
      "ethiopia": {
        "label": "All Ethiopia",
        "path": "data/masks/ethiopia_common.nc",
        "variable": "region_mask"
      },
      "fmam_domain": {
        "label": "FMAM rainfall contribution domain",
        "path": "data/masks/fmam_coverage_chirps_v3_1993_2025_v1.nc",
        "variable": "season_domain"
      }
    },
    "primary_region": "ethiopia",
    "reference_method": "mvs",
    "smoothing_alpha": 0.5,
    "dry_threshold_mm": 1.0,
    "pit_bins": 10,
    "methods": {
      "mvs": {
        "ratio_bounds": [
          0.5,
          2.0
        ],
        "min_model_sd": 1.0
      },
      "mvs_r3": {
        "base": "mvs",
        "label": "MVS, ratio limits 1/3-3",
        "family": "scaling",
        "ratio_bounds": [
          0.3333333333333333,
          3.0
        ],
        "min_model_sd": 1.0
      },
      "mvs_r4": {
        "base": "mvs",
        "label": "MVS, ratio limits 1/4-4",
        "family": "scaling",
        "ratio_bounds": [
          0.25,
          4.0
        ],
        "min_model_sd": 1.0
      },
      "vs": {
        "ratio_bounds": null,
        "min_model_sd": 1.0
      }
    },
    "example_cell_quantiles": [
      0.1,
      0.5,
      0.9
    ],
    "confirmation": {
      "methods": [
        "mvs",
        "mvs_r3",
        "mvs_r4",
        "vs"
      ],
      "variants": [],
      "selection_region": "ethiopia",
      "reliability_bins": 10,
      "reliability_methods": [
        "mvs",
        "mvs_r3",
        "mvs_r4",
        "vs"
      ],
      "output_root": "outputs/bias_correction_benchmark/jan_fmam/ratio_limits/confirmation"
    },
    "output_root": "outputs/bias_correction_benchmark/jan_fmam/ratio_limits"
  },
  "provenance": {
    "commit": "fb7425f593b8bc5f2550f0f47d4929e76eb3fb5c",
    "uncommitted_changes": false,
    "uncommitted_check": "code and configuration files this result depends on",
    "code_sha256": {
      "scripts/bias_methods.py": "f964fac9e23a92ba01fc39368d996aa660561cd8708f7552fbedc0627f6b3706",
      "scripts/bias_benchmark.py": "bd5d0cce44fa15275cc64fbaa1d9317aaefb43626b0f3a0b9c6a719c3b4fa24f",
      "scripts/bias_confirmation.py": "bbc95e4cb64256b101b5c0b30e2f351c5cd2b36893d4dfb0505c63577243f558",
      "scripts/significance.py": "3143761d5d201e4e62df9ad923757b952a3ea768b060c8a722afcd9b3d6a9963",
      "scripts/calibration_core.py": "f0635cc563e6d6aedb62799847b83fbb0f5cc12ee9f8c48ad48dda15a054fb62",
      "scripts/compare_calibration.py": "9aa137c9a02672ffacc2541cfd23cdab9b3294bf7cc77580a11e21208560866a",
      "scripts/local_blend.py": "ada5c571fb7762d2c333f83ad119d35f0784b82aa2cc35449a44cdf00c53c17d",
      "scripts/run_calibration.py": "1f34e8fc92fdd15983f1633de67fcb6a35882911b6b7072ca865df99d907afd0",
      "scripts/run_monthly.py": "dc13dfb54b78773afb6d0c25ebac8769552e5c071f5d2aed9ba2a01400e44f79",
      "scripts/cycle.py": "00e076fc93dc2c8a5caebf6a209fc3de09a5f69e16c2e7cb20bd7b36d2ecdcba",
      "scripts/common.py": "72b83f5c530017e317ea43af3a0e430e6d03f361bc032de374a0f942435cb0a1"
    },
    "config": {
      "path": "config/bias_correction/jan_fmam_ratio_limits.json",
      "sha256": "7e7f252803e5972258a8d222dec54914b0e61c20f9a96f5ac9e49d4fb5d6ef06"
    },
    "project_config": {
      "path": "config/fmam/project.json",
      "sha256": "14e5ba3ed255032ad337f226889b5a4d28d68adf06eb1c3727f665c32e25501b"
    },
    "cycle_config": {
      "path": "config/cycles/jan_2026_fmam.json",
      "sha256": "c8310fabdd26ede83b0f6d93af8af4bd5d6825e7f600e7f0867a55fbd37dc9ed"
    },
    "masks": {
      "cells": {
        "path": "data/masks/ethiopia_common.nc",
        "sha256": "57ad8861c598abb9f175012920e5d0ef058e5b643cd6e4987cad3da6ac0b9e16"
      },
      "ethiopia": {
        "path": "data/masks/ethiopia_common.nc",
        "sha256": "57ad8861c598abb9f175012920e5d0ef058e5b643cd6e4987cad3da6ac0b9e16"
      },
      "fmam_domain": {
        "path": "data/masks/fmam_coverage_chirps_v3_1993_2025_v1.nc",
        "sha256": "c386d127f7041ed6b383c5f46b9537e3740bfee6b85f383e3a8b0792cac58fbb"
      }
    },
    "inputs": {
      "Feb": {
        "folder": "data/processed/init01_Feb",
        "files": 67,
        "sha256": "b9b3974ef4958e55a2a35f73a53d338fd3edc31199af14efd09d91854df3219e"
      },
      "Mar": {
        "folder": "data/processed/init01_Mar",
        "files": 67,
        "sha256": "2ee69ddc9e04fe6676a6145d2cf5e2ac4c11c1dc77aec88a3b42c10455e157cd"
      },
      "Apr": {
        "folder": "data/processed/init01_Apr",
        "files": 67,
        "sha256": "19ef0f789981c73311c6a090a7364856ad50e3b99f1e73787b06cc83ba9aa59b"
      },
      "May": {
        "folder": "data/processed/init01_May",
        "files": 67,
        "sha256": "783f94cce917835eb27d92d69d78974941c955626a6de8ef3fa9bdd81e28c26b"
      },
      "FMAM": {
        "folder": "data/processed/init01_FMAM",
        "files": 67,
        "sha256": "84fa8dbde4f6f1c758ce9c83c6d196f514b39ddb6759f9b25c2b51349bf08fdd"
      }
    },
    "scoring_version": 3,
    "dependency_sha256": "90964d9bbf2d7aa12ee980ea819a84f805b027f34d4c3da381de899bbfeffc30",
    "python": "3.11.9",
    "numpy": "1.26.4"
  },
  "protocol": "Benchmark rainfall-amount bias-correction methods member by member, for every grid cell and target (docs/47).\n\nRead-only experiment: never touches the operational forecasts. Configured by config/bias_correction/<name>.json.\n\nDesigns (one score per year: area-weighted over a region; years weighted equally):\n  training    : leave-one-year-out within the training years; the scored year never enters a fit (clean; screened)\n  operational : fit on the training years, scored on the test years (exploratory; these years were seen before)\n  full        : leave-one-year-out within all observed years, for per-cell maps and distribution checks (descriptive)\n  forecast    : fit on all observed years, corrected forecast-year members of every method (member-by-member comparison)\nScores: ensemble CRPS (mm) of the empirical distribution delivered to users and its CRPSS against the CHIRPS training\nclimatology (primary); the fair CRPS (Ferro 2014) as a separately labelled diagnostic; ensemble-mean bias, MAE, RMSE\nand correlation; spread-error ratio; rank histograms; tercile RPS/RPSS of alpha-smoothed member counts (no\nclimatology blend); distribution of the pooled corrected members against CHIRPS (mean, standard deviation, 10/50/90th\npercentiles, exactly-0 and at-or-below-threshold shares); coverage of the amount and probability scores; how often\neach method's limits, caps and fallbacks act.\nScreening: each method against the reference (operational MVS) per target and score (CRPS, fair CRPS, RPS):\none-sided sign-flip test on the training-design per-year scores and no harm over the test years. Two\nmultiplicity families are reported: within one method across the targets (\"screen_pass\") and across every\ndeclared method and target (\"screen_pass_family\"; sensitivity variants such as the MVS all-zero guard are screened\nwithin method only). A screening pass is not an adoption decision. For the reference comparison, each cell's\ncontribution is also split by its climate group in the fold's training years (all 0 mm, all dry, mixed, always wet).",
  "gate_rule": "Screening rule (docs/36 rule applied as a screen): a method passes for a target and score if, on the leave-one-year-out 1993-2016 per-year scores, its mean improvement over mvs has a one-sided sign-flip p-value below 0.05 after Holm adjustment, and its mean score over 2017-2025 (fits on 1993-2016) is not worse. 'screen_pass': Holm across the 5 targets of one method. 'screen_pass_family': Holm across every method and target of the benchmark for that score. A screening pass is not an operational adoption decision (see the confirmation run).",
  "methods": {
    "mvs": {
      "label": "Mean-Variance Scaling (operational)",
      "family": "scaling",
      "definition": "x' = max(0, mu_obs + r (x - mu_model)), r = clip(sd_obs/sd_model, 0.5, 2); r = 1 if sd_model < 1 mm",
      "references": [
        "Torralba et al. 2017",
        "Manzanas et al. 2019"
      ],
      "member_wise": true,
      "uses_forecast_distribution": false,
      "parameters": {
        "ratio_bounds": [
          0.5,
          2.0
        ],
        "min_model_sd": 1.0
      },
      "base": null
    },
    "mvs_r3": {
      "label": "MVS, ratio limits 1/3-3",
      "family": "scaling",
      "definition": "x' = max(0, mu_obs + r (x - mu_model)), r = clip(sd_obs/sd_model, 0.5, 2); r = 1 if sd_model < 1 mm; parameters {'ratio_bounds': [0.3333333333333333, 3.0], 'min_model_sd': 1.0}",
      "references": [
        "Torralba et al. 2017",
        "Manzanas et al. 2019"
      ],
      "member_wise": true,
      "uses_forecast_distribution": false,
      "parameters": {
        "ratio_bounds": [
          0.3333333333333333,
          3.0
        ],
        "min_model_sd": 1.0
      },
      "base": "mvs"
    },
    "mvs_r4": {
      "label": "MVS, ratio limits 1/4-4",
      "family": "scaling",
      "definition": "x' = max(0, mu_obs + r (x - mu_model)), r = clip(sd_obs/sd_model, 0.5, 2); r = 1 if sd_model < 1 mm; parameters {'ratio_bounds': [0.25, 4.0], 'min_model_sd': 1.0}",
      "references": [
        "Torralba et al. 2017",
        "Manzanas et al. 2019"
      ],
      "member_wise": true,
      "uses_forecast_distribution": false,
      "parameters": {
        "ratio_bounds": [
          0.25,
          4.0
        ],
        "min_model_sd": 1.0
      },
      "base": "mvs"
    },
    "vs": {
      "label": "Variance Scaling (unbounded)",
      "family": "scaling",
      "definition": "Same algebra and the same r = 1 fallback (sd_model < 1 mm) as MVS, without the 0.5-2 ratio limits",
      "references": [
        "Teutschbein & Seibert 2012"
      ],
      "member_wise": true,
      "uses_forecast_distribution": false,
      "parameters": {
        "ratio_bounds": null,
        "min_model_sd": 1.0
      },
      "base": null
    }
  },
  "targets": {
    "Feb": {
      "tag": "init01_Feb",
      "cells": 1484,
      "methods": {
        "mvs": {
          "training": {
            "ethiopia": {
              "years": [
                1993,
                1994,
                1995,
                1996,
                1997,
                1998,
                1999,
                2000,
                2001,
                2002,
                2003,
                2004,
                2005,
                2006,
                2007,
                2008,
                2009,
                2010,
                2011,
                2012,
                2013,
                2014,
                2015,
                2016
              ],
              "per_year": {
                "crps": [
                  21.7970892735109,
                  3.935390266322487,
                  8.336641016148581,
                  4.475050040436887,
                  3.2413823944285736,
                  12.039186514161065,
                  3.0524860459868863,
                  3.2091535728627885,
                  3.837646619094053,
                  3.172333631103006,
                  7.037987347544258,
                  3.8906725022745037,
                  6.884163239775635,
                  6.529194175691247,
                  9.364383291059738,
                  2.5592596444499316,
                  4.064092012406403,
                  24.24033465835874,
                  2.3780803544339135,
                  2.4776661232510255,
                  4.6065253442670535,
                  4.279713462385071,
                  3.3692780644069527,
                  4.552438339724185
                ],
                "crps_clim": [
                  23.284667911212587,
                  3.570418694039729,
                  8.664187246161891,
                  4.414584188793243,
                  4.17412909889816,
                  16.25329471183794,
                  3.8584724401638506,
                  4.245696599510476,
                  3.6698911288086773,
                  3.32770100825122,
                  7.9273830692352805,
                  3.158727103335094,
                  3.386806343170413,
                  6.902319664533068,
                  10.632197368513724,
                  3.1240434276464755,
                  3.8782525052097263,
                  28.264469349246895,
                  2.9648792529408503,
                  3.872969400259919,
                  3.1007437566346607,
                  4.353545654719579,
                  3.299826968492685,
                  4.614204893386611
                ],
                "crps_fair": [
                  21.556334989102066,
                  3.7697657418900796,
                  8.06828538027154,
                  4.227581429674143,
                  3.1154054654967447,
                  11.751919759868633,
                  2.922245475985677,
                  3.1174668193179875,
                  3.650280214057467,
                  2.9961915046638903,
                  6.823839605811347,
                  3.607167717686776,
                  6.515305867049889,
                  6.099810982003533,
                  9.045300321460504,
                  2.3901605110555977,
                  3.9157930525589233,
                  23.954959012459568,
                  2.2459001786335495,
                  2.3860070561812305,
                  4.286928477513339,
                  4.088511627072232,
                  3.2186617866609444,
                  4.4331713347306225
                ],
                "crps_fair_clim": [
                  23.029391203416978,
                  3.2778043930297773,
                  8.381220234076412,
                  4.1235686860688086,
                  3.882658188806501,
                  15.98470100934654,
                  3.5664036954912555,
                  3.9543612339275516,
                  3.3774652225615456,
                  3.0346270146545478,
                  7.643020594693502,
                  2.865333083403353,
                  3.093844291495935,
                  6.61601578202784,
                  10.352957648326644,
                  2.8305837189350216,
                  3.586221222781536,
                  28.01862408356878,
                  2.671118096928818,
                  3.580928111951141,
                  2.807239919758411,
                  4.062414548710915,
                  3.0067001831540465,
                  4.323567460178454
                ],
                "rps": [
                  0.37929443423299036,
                  0.7145273797101795,
                  0.44145418299709327,
                  0.5218699694060976,
                  0.5699402066850332,
                  0.3822408442157117,
                  0.5121599390636175,
                  0.603549965670846,
                  0.42698121021917523,
                  0.5779888272592397,
                  0.5199208105938492,
                  0.4952439510384877,
                  0.6096446310313922,
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                  0.562551488865844,
                  0.4756379756411638,
                  0.28701284463043464,
                  0.42574175676736004,
                  0.4524888848248645,
                  0.7216968410287808,
                  0.40387741215842893,
                  0.5435834352023315,
                  0.4812837932163161
                ],
                "rps_clim": [
                  0.5290059541759002,
                  0.47988962392562323,
                  0.4849075877887211,
                  0.4124150424884049,
                  0.502955886793367,
                  0.5029939372693721,
                  0.45905151377627607,
                  0.5225990933393452,
                  0.38206038671438824,
                  0.4436804395162057,
                  0.4801714472144227,
                  0.38090373683663276,
                  0.4015102412958623,
                  0.47008446725039066,
                  0.46611892150198586,
                  0.47073947275602157,
                  0.4008721535503825,
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                  0.3868823232399181,
                  0.46624256720071,
                  0.4384388554267233,
                  0.41402493153199577,
                  0.41674923105831446,
                  0.4416090920361355
                ],
                "bias": [
                  -24.564039395890255,
                  5.909678913477334,
                  -5.594590525230809,
                  2.642463300174366,
                  5.696917688281024,
                  -11.109184826432115,
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                  -0.46797821038584125,
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                  -1.5192914937196105,
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                  -1.627347101001633
                ],
                "mae": [
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                  7.3620760253054245,
                  9.14671996505665,
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                  10.714816127986884,
                  5.087473251605826,
                  6.29119903052292,
                  5.08418123184107
                ],
                "mse": [
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                  115.910560663372,
                  266.22031007160706,
                  143.60423729494443,
                  75.7877978591341,
                  682.1121755415686,
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                  230.34248295538157,
                  94.75005589180802,
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                  66.49841014005655
                ],
                "var": [
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                "zero": [
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                "dry": [
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