{ "created_utc": "2026-10-12T21:01:19.702951+00:00", "config": "config/bias_correction/may_jjas_ratio_limits.json", "config_contents": { "schema_version": 1, "name": "may_jjas_ratio_limits", "description": "MVS ratio-limit study: May-initialized ECMWF SEAS5, JJAS season and its calendar months, every 0.25 deg cell of Ethiopia (docs/47). Operational MVS (spread ratio limited to 0.5-2) against the same correction with limits 1/3-3, 1/4-4 and none.", "cycle": "config/operational.json", "project_config": "config/project.json", "targets": [ "Jun", "Jul", "Aug", "Sep", "JJAS" ], "training_years": [ 1993, 2016 ], "test_years": [ 2017, 2025 ], "all_years": [ 1993, 2025 ], "forecast_year": 2026, "cells": { "path": "data/masks/ethiopia_common.nc", "variable": "region_mask" }, "regions": { "ethiopia": { "label": "All Ethiopia", "path": "data/masks/ethiopia_common.nc", "variable": "region_mask" }, "jjas_domain": { "label": "JJAS R1+R2 rainfall domain", "path": "data/masks/init05_JJAS_regime_domain.nc", "variable": "season_domain" } }, "primary_region": "ethiopia", "reference_method": "mvs", "smoothing_alpha": 0.5, "dry_threshold_mm": 1.0, "pit_bins": 10, "methods": { "mvs": { "ratio_bounds": [ 0.5, 2.0 ], "min_model_sd": 1.0 }, "mvs_r3": { "base": "mvs", "label": "MVS, ratio limits 1/3-3", "family": "scaling", "ratio_bounds": [ 0.3333333333333333, 3.0 ], "min_model_sd": 1.0 }, "mvs_r4": { "base": "mvs", "label": "MVS, ratio limits 1/4-4", "family": "scaling", "ratio_bounds": [ 0.25, 4.0 ], "min_model_sd": 1.0 }, "vs": { "ratio_bounds": null, "min_model_sd": 1.0 } }, "example_cell_quantiles": [ 0.1, 0.5, 0.9 ], "confirmation": { "methods": [ "mvs", "mvs_r3", "mvs_r4", "vs" ], "variants": [], "selection_region": "ethiopia", "reliability_bins": 10, "reliability_methods": [ "mvs", "mvs_r3", "mvs_r4", "vs" ], "output_root": "outputs/bias_correction_benchmark/may_jjas/ratio_limits/confirmation" }, "output_root": "outputs/bias_correction_benchmark/may_jjas/ratio_limits" }, "provenance": { "commit": "fb7425f593b8bc5f2550f0f47d4929e76eb3fb5c", "uncommitted_changes": false, "uncommitted_check": "code and configuration files this result depends on", "code_sha256": { "scripts/bias_methods.py": "f964fac9e23a92ba01fc39368d996aa660561cd8708f7552fbedc0627f6b3706", "scripts/bias_benchmark.py": "bd5d0cce44fa15275cc64fbaa1d9317aaefb43626b0f3a0b9c6a719c3b4fa24f", "scripts/bias_confirmation.py": "bbc95e4cb64256b101b5c0b30e2f351c5cd2b36893d4dfb0505c63577243f558", "scripts/significance.py": "3143761d5d201e4e62df9ad923757b952a3ea768b060c8a722afcd9b3d6a9963", "scripts/calibration_core.py": "f0635cc563e6d6aedb62799847b83fbb0f5cc12ee9f8c48ad48dda15a054fb62", "scripts/compare_calibration.py": "9aa137c9a02672ffacc2541cfd23cdab9b3294bf7cc77580a11e21208560866a", "scripts/local_blend.py": "ada5c571fb7762d2c333f83ad119d35f0784b82aa2cc35449a44cdf00c53c17d", "scripts/run_calibration.py": "1f34e8fc92fdd15983f1633de67fcb6a35882911b6b7072ca865df99d907afd0", "scripts/run_monthly.py": "dc13dfb54b78773afb6d0c25ebac8769552e5c071f5d2aed9ba2a01400e44f79", "scripts/cycle.py": "00e076fc93dc2c8a5caebf6a209fc3de09a5f69e16c2e7cb20bd7b36d2ecdcba", "scripts/common.py": "72b83f5c530017e317ea43af3a0e430e6d03f361bc032de374a0f942435cb0a1" }, "config": { "path": "config/bias_correction/may_jjas_ratio_limits.json", "sha256": "1bd6e0af437fdb2662433f7113c52f139c523c372718d83cfeea06c031371f83" }, "project_config": { "path": "config/project.json", "sha256": "e4f0865e03a0a8349a5c01a48120cd7e4ef41bb865e2370733a3b81ddf862160" }, "cycle_config": { "path": "config/operational.json", "sha256": "44ba9357752249ef879af3aad10cec30f02165ac3589ce626123f5b8b3286b14" }, "masks": { "cells": { "path": "data/masks/ethiopia_common.nc", "sha256": "57ad8861c598abb9f175012920e5d0ef058e5b643cd6e4987cad3da6ac0b9e16" }, "ethiopia": { "path": "data/masks/ethiopia_common.nc", "sha256": "57ad8861c598abb9f175012920e5d0ef058e5b643cd6e4987cad3da6ac0b9e16" }, "jjas_domain": { "path": "data/masks/init05_JJAS_regime_domain.nc", "sha256": "65b8d6bf9c3ac5ef408688ea9f79e028e421f7fdd371d093beb693db0fcfe802" } }, "inputs": { "Jun": { "folder": "data/processed/init05_Jun", "files": 67, "sha256": "ee40e28ce79056d49d6074e4180c2a5275a52d5b6564a4a09edbcaf8850a4ec2" }, "Jul": { "folder": "data/processed/init05_Jul", "files": 67, "sha256": "27e6089a6cbb581469a59d2e5a551c8e0bd7df0751a95e8c844f1eb63ba22d26" }, "Aug": { "folder": "data/processed/init05_Aug", "files": 67, "sha256": "5089f3c813e80e8227cd20d1587a857bc545c3c4ff092cd0f53715a2b7a50c0a" }, "Sep": { "folder": "data/processed/init05_Sep", "files": 67, "sha256": "e29f812041c61bcdae92d419fcec6f05a888f570a5e05b2090dd49a6f11795fb" }, "JJAS": { "folder": "data/processed/init05_JJAS", "files": 67, "sha256": "8b484f2d4d7c869da0d764bc930dd14a9f34666590affb072f4d073058a61c4d" } }, "scoring_version": 3, "dependency_sha256": "4fc6642903f2408d09c6cf31eaf3e7b9d0e46d468b64b3b35e4ee7ab0466cb86", "python": "3.11.9", "numpy": "1.26.4" }, "protocol": "Benchmark rainfall-amount bias-correction methods member by member, for every grid cell and target (docs/47).\n\nRead-only experiment: never touches the operational forecasts. Configured by config/bias_correction/.json.\n\nDesigns (one score per year: area-weighted over a region; years weighted equally):\n training : leave-one-year-out within the training years; the scored year never enters a fit (clean; screened)\n operational : fit on the training years, scored on the test years (exploratory; these years were seen before)\n full : leave-one-year-out within all observed years, for per-cell maps and distribution checks (descriptive)\n forecast : fit on all observed years, corrected forecast-year members of every method (member-by-member comparison)\nScores: ensemble CRPS (mm) of the empirical distribution delivered to users and its CRPSS against the CHIRPS training\nclimatology (primary); the fair CRPS (Ferro 2014) as a separately labelled diagnostic; ensemble-mean bias, MAE, RMSE\nand correlation; spread-error ratio; rank histograms; tercile RPS/RPSS of alpha-smoothed member counts (no\nclimatology blend); distribution of the pooled corrected members against CHIRPS (mean, standard deviation, 10/50/90th\npercentiles, exactly-0 and at-or-below-threshold shares); coverage of the amount and probability scores; how often\neach method's limits, caps and fallbacks act.\nScreening: each method against the reference (operational MVS) per target and score (CRPS, fair CRPS, RPS):\none-sided sign-flip test on the training-design per-year scores and no harm over the test years. Two\nmultiplicity families are reported: within one method across the targets (\"screen_pass\") and across every\ndeclared method and target (\"screen_pass_family\"; sensitivity variants such as the MVS all-zero guard are screened\nwithin method only). A screening pass is not an adoption decision. For the reference comparison, each cell's\ncontribution is also split by its climate group in the fold's training years (all 0 mm, all dry, mixed, always wet).", "gate_rule": "Screening rule (docs/36 rule applied as a screen): a method passes for a target and score if, on the leave-one-year-out 1993-2016 per-year scores, its mean improvement over mvs has a one-sided sign-flip p-value below 0.05 after Holm adjustment, and its mean score over 2017-2025 (fits on 1993-2016) is not worse. 'screen_pass': Holm across the 5 targets of one method. 'screen_pass_family': Holm across every method and target of the benchmark for that score. A screening pass is not an operational adoption decision (see the confirmation run).", "methods": { "mvs": { "label": "Mean-Variance Scaling (operational)", "family": "scaling", "definition": "x' = max(0, mu_obs + r (x - mu_model)), r = clip(sd_obs/sd_model, 0.5, 2); r = 1 if sd_model < 1 mm", "references": [ "Torralba et al. 2017", "Manzanas et al. 2019" ], "member_wise": true, "uses_forecast_distribution": false, "parameters": { "ratio_bounds": [ 0.5, 2.0 ], "min_model_sd": 1.0 }, "base": null }, "mvs_r3": { "label": "MVS, ratio limits 1/3-3", "family": "scaling", "definition": "x' = max(0, mu_obs + r (x - mu_model)), r = clip(sd_obs/sd_model, 0.5, 2); r = 1 if sd_model < 1 mm; parameters {'ratio_bounds': [0.3333333333333333, 3.0], 'min_model_sd': 1.0}", "references": [ "Torralba et al. 2017", "Manzanas et al. 2019" ], "member_wise": true, "uses_forecast_distribution": false, "parameters": { "ratio_bounds": [ 0.3333333333333333, 3.0 ], "min_model_sd": 1.0 }, "base": "mvs" }, "mvs_r4": { "label": "MVS, ratio limits 1/4-4", "family": "scaling", "definition": "x' = max(0, mu_obs + r (x - mu_model)), r = clip(sd_obs/sd_model, 0.5, 2); r = 1 if sd_model < 1 mm; parameters {'ratio_bounds': [0.25, 4.0], 'min_model_sd': 1.0}", "references": [ "Torralba et al. 2017", "Manzanas et al. 2019" ], "member_wise": true, "uses_forecast_distribution": false, "parameters": { "ratio_bounds": [ 0.25, 4.0 ], "min_model_sd": 1.0 }, "base": "mvs" }, "vs": { "label": "Variance Scaling (unbounded)", "family": "scaling", "definition": "Same algebra and the same r = 1 fallback (sd_model < 1 mm) as MVS, without the 0.5-2 ratio limits", "references": [ "Teutschbein & Seibert 2012" ], "member_wise": true, "uses_forecast_distribution": false, "parameters": { "ratio_bounds": null, "min_model_sd": 1.0 }, "base": null } }, "targets": { "Jun": { "tag": "init05_Jun", "cells": 1484, "methods": { "mvs": { "training": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 13.992539348561518, 16.426253171247495, 17.622709466063064, 25.30100817369928, 39.57385219209947, 23.1680894663439, 15.789933114038936, 17.625631778136658, 13.531384000256473, 13.655919143818526, 16.08192384080381, 27.683911017293056, 16.720055236699945, 12.074581094580848, 25.94071278374676, 13.12279899160203, 16.54296061247631, 13.771997042191103, 15.763121036853882, 15.088812645492602, 13.729466225908144, 13.853651394245812, 21.266885371651146, 15.905069700019373 ], "crps_clim": [ 13.598628827431384, 16.1287234213203, 16.846876606138146, 30.663467984689664, 22.80447649187906, 18.226651308312636, 14.525911039990154, 14.251447116167167, 13.837640825193597, 12.137215810172771, 16.791243786004284, 15.751382993845937, 12.898768089874904, 10.917544921058786, 28.541535877041742, 12.922717363327399, 16.266275488306196, 12.276815800801508, 15.42283207898044, 14.38398343120619, 12.541645594742256, 20.245101600952477, 20.421425827020485, 13.948777217630555 ], "crps_fair": [ 13.504663790773563, 15.914474498755032, 17.09641947767471, 24.704882978512234, 39.10299623768382, 22.679471892533265, 15.25079448258296, 17.11001557686115, 12.927031982868666, 13.07876614457755, 15.489458742568582, 27.073574019619006, 16.11380078378189, 11.565130803154927, 25.39210789877385, 12.540764016877274, 16.084386555399007, 13.238182299137948, 15.196945207003226, 14.56592908436911, 13.15302368073525, 13.331170820844585, 20.763087944640876, 15.367808711957151 ], "crps_fair_clim": [ 12.904996569959033, 15.439883009669698, 16.159396333095156, 30.002155498348493, 22.128279551953014, 17.541784244932863, 13.834034998829466, 13.559051256968939, 13.144461241959426, 11.44081572501621, 16.10365814777164, 15.061827922294817, 12.203810338581421, 10.218834853157688, 27.87620457989062, 12.227804970506362, 15.577695591933987, 11.580680109566593, 14.732654751908749, 13.69183858775614, 11.84601147508678, 19.564057360096648, 19.74071553356249, 13.255808119988123 ], "rps": [ 0.4212476374778854, 0.553265113970175, 0.4855803028976748, 0.36093964355200286, 0.9358672347712377, 0.537267400713859, 0.5365710833240878, 0.5478323428120702, 0.42648324757018047, 0.45169480145458824, 0.436457085247521, 0.7634530241564408, 0.5444062887461566, 0.4596910993958413, 0.4269052057086846, 0.4004783473710603, 0.45948529049661857, 0.4898429927254356, 0.5536662710848509, 0.4511773572048277, 0.533797028736178, 0.3698509973009969, 0.5031471343533994, 0.4539365672652042 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.44720547123089077, 0.4589801915113287, 0.4635911453059036, 0.4595146547250173, 0.4903287387863352, 0.4582362529556338, 0.45761747407668063, 0.46494431407467296, 0.4237729823019771, 0.4155827009516894, 0.4368040922007073, 0.4627485570660647, 0.40386649932915103, 0.4219599357733368, 0.5019918976338255, 0.4318073507386062, 0.4712546280602498, 0.4328409615693309, 0.48030200333874057, 0.4457785596836651, 0.4573407337768707, 0.4724286848016833, 0.46721179707623267, 0.4529883734945551 ], "bias": [ -7.261852689941597, -2.364024066330211, -2.825731374617046, -12.417926716190598, -48.25329781595676, -26.047109476312947, 10.533112462175374, 20.485148700754795, 10.410775885196866, 13.626287448853157, 7.621322617102462, 38.12689887982132, 16.872426573792325, 0.3566288583131528, -25.49419320573169, 7.229923023789441, -0.5564976542104877, -8.201694224073329, -2.314635806361993, 2.5935559468374976, 0.48298868803744766, 4.599675425439015, 0.8518528828060796, 3.401943282468883 ], "mae": [ 18.94335215234752, 22.978634046400632, 23.865100877506702, 33.5606486807841, 48.88732295673897, 30.134416510436516, 23.173009928126746, 25.22680046026495, 18.856070141167592, 19.85337518957637, 23.381461079819147, 39.535765759091824, 25.08057639846243, 16.91292763742037, 32.27592080091068, 17.684890432883314, 23.31810212227829, 19.10497770682831, 21.919299833736506, 21.15406155599181, 18.737078056539456, 18.699537453624856, 28.23351752407621, 22.490934031282155 ], "mse": [ 968.3036446693885, 1355.8259644447999, 1578.0363242424369, 2782.0325768328416, 4485.469806645823, 2130.3798465055543, 1186.136580475687, 1421.7442580706938, 956.2056279457943, 1018.717865325072, 1085.015684139848, 3001.49045417558, 1364.5612680794989, 662.0889765685904, 2177.3476777718033, 732.3611061033885, 1322.1354592427851, 1054.367072345855, 1017.0260585179284, 1025.0976756402254, 761.0283141067266, 761.5442329270169, 1989.7354952302892, 1380.2295123690355 ], "var": [ 860.2576556917501, 876.2926570251831, 1004.360737030329, 1084.4700280715367, 898.2744653256342, 832.8863315092502, 920.7355030201445, 880.2414642378442, 1253.3774569222417, 1153.2128640571436, 1104.6845400489674, 1119.0133252125702, 1134.9128193629738, 853.3172059402905, 1017.0859680745564, 1104.7719532332587, 741.5761051745914, 1060.9343024776877, 1098.767529223801, 979.4576873869291, 1254.49952549707, 1000.6022763575407, 897.1167945828751, 980.9746096342958 ], "zero": [ 0.012620888736056116, 0.00898983254348284, 0.03368086045705673, 0.011970973308100933, 0.04410739343145423, 0.026812477123683703, 0.013312155549902066, 0.023103963147567106, 0.01545605624639742, 0.010056268956349963, 0.007137497910958821, 0.010502812975907617, 0.005769821033972005, 0.009695929707498274, 0.008522609052150803, 0.013823866008789248, 0.030759927855331833, 0.017321184626408, 0.02632570201215531, 0.029047187799052358, 0.00920706615102859, 0.031601049285199745, 0.02452678540668518, 0.03916210437309315 ], "dry": [ 0.027335317676595482, 0.018765224026075927, 0.05408863130105726, 0.02125782717224734, 0.07071110382143635, 0.045245189475611756, 0.027471968840780285, 0.041704430236952666, 0.032931754449759515, 0.0207825034688299, 0.014119996208740498, 0.017953451989078308, 0.0135956037801757, 0.02040341814713108, 0.021595236702450518, 0.025882364985466227, 0.055099950091061035, 0.029581023001170145, 0.04306918420567095, 0.051666026695194725, 0.01948087698903394, 0.053659335865338095, 0.04238620178392624, 0.06148346410594866 ], "obs_dry": [ 0.02408710028816411, 0.019369269843555935, 0.014662689851551041, 0.001359719542514366, 0.0027196856229220892, 0.03136982196120031, 0.014110825695308218, 0.006740496223951963, 0.030057439421966863, 0.0020255499754012257, 0.009381492862822013, 0.011396602362927576, 0.016035987033956207, 0.014049260029145553, 0.0006624186028620318, 0.004043608687880766, 0.01201289338315992, 0.0020248929115383773, 0.029396076540974946, 0.005363342428187262, 0.03540945906725451, 0.04880800548888869, 0.010620608971837931, 0.009375109872953145 ], "amount_area_share": [ 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0 ], "probability_area_share": [ 0.9986451561073874, 0.9986451561073874, 0.9986451561073874, 0.9986451561073874, 0.9979680969924003, 0.9986451561073874, 0.9986451561073874, 0.9986451561073874, 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