{
  "created_utc": "2026-10-12T21:04:00.952673+00:00",
  "config": "config/bias_correction/may_jjas_ratio_limits.json",
  "protocol": "Selection-aware confirmation of rainfall-amount bias-correction methods through the full probability pipeline (docs/47).\n\nRead-only experiment. Configured by the \"confirmation\" block of config/bias_correction/<name>.json; any cycle, any\nmethod of the registry (scripts/bias_methods.py).\n\nPipeline for one amount method (the operational one, with the amount correction swapped):\n    corrected members -> tercile counts against the training CHIRPS terciles -> alpha smoothing\n    -> blend with climatology, p = (1 - lambda) p_s + lambda p_clim, one lambda per target fitted by\n       leave-one-year-out within the training years (local_blend.fit_weights, over the full rectangle as operationally)\nDesign:\n    outer leave-one-year-out over the training years. For outer year y every fit (amount correction, terciles,\n    climatology, lambda) uses only the other training years; lambda comes from inner leave-one-year-out within them.\n    Selection-aware procedures choose a method for year y with the inner (training-only) scores:\n        SEL-P: lowest inner blended RPS (probability product); SEL-A: lowest inner CRPS (amount product).\n    Their outer scores therefore include the effect of choosing among the declared candidate family.\n    Test years: all fits and the selection on the training years, scored on the test years (exploratory).\nScores per year (area-weighted over a region, equal years): blended RPS and RPSS, category Brier scores and skill\n(below and above normal), reliability tables; ensemble CRPS of the amounts (and the fair CRPS).\nTests against the operational method: paired whole-year sign-flip, Holm across the declared family\n(every method and target for the method comparisons; the targets for SEL-P, SEL-A and each sensitivity variant).\nVariants (e.g. the MVS all-zero guard) run through the same pipeline but are never chosen by SEL-P / SEL-A.\nCheckpoints (one per target and method) are reused only when the complete dependency fingerprint of the target\n(configuration contents, masks, input files, calculation code; bias_benchmark.dependencies) is unchanged.",
  "provenance": {
    "commit": "fb7425f593b8bc5f2550f0f47d4929e76eb3fb5c",
    "uncommitted_changes": false,
    "uncommitted_check": "code and configuration files this result depends on",
    "code_sha256": {
      "scripts/bias_methods.py": "f964fac9e23a92ba01fc39368d996aa660561cd8708f7552fbedc0627f6b3706",
      "scripts/bias_benchmark.py": "bd5d0cce44fa15275cc64fbaa1d9317aaefb43626b0f3a0b9c6a719c3b4fa24f",
      "scripts/bias_confirmation.py": "bbc95e4cb64256b101b5c0b30e2f351c5cd2b36893d4dfb0505c63577243f558",
      "scripts/significance.py": "3143761d5d201e4e62df9ad923757b952a3ea768b060c8a722afcd9b3d6a9963",
      "scripts/calibration_core.py": "f0635cc563e6d6aedb62799847b83fbb0f5cc12ee9f8c48ad48dda15a054fb62",
      "scripts/compare_calibration.py": "9aa137c9a02672ffacc2541cfd23cdab9b3294bf7cc77580a11e21208560866a",
      "scripts/local_blend.py": "ada5c571fb7762d2c333f83ad119d35f0784b82aa2cc35449a44cdf00c53c17d",
      "scripts/run_calibration.py": "1f34e8fc92fdd15983f1633de67fcb6a35882911b6b7072ca865df99d907afd0",
      "scripts/run_monthly.py": "dc13dfb54b78773afb6d0c25ebac8769552e5c071f5d2aed9ba2a01400e44f79",
      "scripts/cycle.py": "00e076fc93dc2c8a5caebf6a209fc3de09a5f69e16c2e7cb20bd7b36d2ecdcba",
      "scripts/common.py": "72b83f5c530017e317ea43af3a0e430e6d03f361bc032de374a0f942435cb0a1"
    },
    "config": {
      "path": "config/bias_correction/may_jjas_ratio_limits.json",
      "sha256": "1bd6e0af437fdb2662433f7113c52f139c523c372718d83cfeea06c031371f83"
    },
    "project_config": {
      "path": "config/project.json",
      "sha256": "e4f0865e03a0a8349a5c01a48120cd7e4ef41bb865e2370733a3b81ddf862160"
    },
    "cycle_config": {
      "path": "config/operational.json",
      "sha256": "44ba9357752249ef879af3aad10cec30f02165ac3589ce626123f5b8b3286b14"
    },
    "masks": {
      "cells": {
        "path": "data/masks/ethiopia_common.nc",
        "sha256": "57ad8861c598abb9f175012920e5d0ef058e5b643cd6e4987cad3da6ac0b9e16"
      },
      "ethiopia": {
        "path": "data/masks/ethiopia_common.nc",
        "sha256": "57ad8861c598abb9f175012920e5d0ef058e5b643cd6e4987cad3da6ac0b9e16"
      },
      "jjas_domain": {
        "path": "data/masks/init05_JJAS_regime_domain.nc",
        "sha256": "65b8d6bf9c3ac5ef408688ea9f79e028e421f7fdd371d093beb693db0fcfe802"
      }
    },
    "inputs": {
      "Jun": {
        "folder": "data/processed/init05_Jun",
        "files": 67,
        "sha256": "ee40e28ce79056d49d6074e4180c2a5275a52d5b6564a4a09edbcaf8850a4ec2"
      },
      "Jul": {
        "folder": "data/processed/init05_Jul",
        "files": 67,
        "sha256": "27e6089a6cbb581469a59d2e5a551c8e0bd7df0751a95e8c844f1eb63ba22d26"
      },
      "Aug": {
        "folder": "data/processed/init05_Aug",
        "files": 67,
        "sha256": "5089f3c813e80e8227cd20d1587a857bc545c3c4ff092cd0f53715a2b7a50c0a"
      },
      "Sep": {
        "folder": "data/processed/init05_Sep",
        "files": 67,
        "sha256": "e29f812041c61bcdae92d419fcec6f05a888f570a5e05b2090dd49a6f11795fb"
      },
      "JJAS": {
        "folder": "data/processed/init05_JJAS",
        "files": 67,
        "sha256": "8b484f2d4d7c869da0d764bc930dd14a9f34666590affb072f4d073058a61c4d"
      }
    },
    "scoring_version": 3,
    "dependency_sha256": "4fc6642903f2408d09c6cf31eaf3e7b9d0e46d468b64b3b35e4ee7ab0466cb86",
    "python": "3.11.9",
    "numpy": "1.26.4",
    "checkpoint_keys": {
      "Jun": "3d384f5d902d32e586f17400f7157379aa0e49ba1c84521f7098ae9856b02aae",
      "Jul": "0d0694fdc843439d9281d503a617ed784457b0e080797473fcb808d8f550255d",
      "Aug": "434f66a992848eacb772190b54b8ffb64588b3b6c90efde67688f58d82f0417b",
      "Sep": "04523b4c1404c17aa64e41111b481c7cdd3ead7b6c9e156836430637c3750c5e",
      "JJAS": "615c8f42a2d49cdd75b6e95cc870f6bac2c0ca4383eb1b6236dcb252d032effb"
    }
  },
  "methods": [
    "mvs",
    "mvs_r3",
    "mvs_r4",
    "vs"
  ],
  "family": [
    "mvs",
    "mvs_r3",
    "mvs_r4",
    "vs"
  ],
  "variants": [],
  "reference": "mvs",
  "targets": {
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      "tag": "init05_Jun",
      "methods": {
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          "test": {
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        "SEL-A": {
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          "test": {
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        "SEL-A": {
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          "test": {
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        },
        "SEL-A": {
          "criterion": "inner CRPS (training years only)",
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