{
  "created_utc": "2026-10-12T20:53:18.238848+00:00",
  "config": "config/bias_correction/sep_ondj_ratio_limits.json",
  "protocol": "Selection-aware confirmation of rainfall-amount bias-correction methods through the full probability pipeline (docs/47).\n\nRead-only experiment. Configured by the \"confirmation\" block of config/bias_correction/<name>.json; any cycle, any\nmethod of the registry (scripts/bias_methods.py).\n\nPipeline for one amount method (the operational one, with the amount correction swapped):\n    corrected members -> tercile counts against the training CHIRPS terciles -> alpha smoothing\n    -> blend with climatology, p = (1 - lambda) p_s + lambda p_clim, one lambda per target fitted by\n       leave-one-year-out within the training years (local_blend.fit_weights, over the full rectangle as operationally)\nDesign:\n    outer leave-one-year-out over the training years. For outer year y every fit (amount correction, terciles,\n    climatology, lambda) uses only the other training years; lambda comes from inner leave-one-year-out within them.\n    Selection-aware procedures choose a method for year y with the inner (training-only) scores:\n        SEL-P: lowest inner blended RPS (probability product); SEL-A: lowest inner CRPS (amount product).\n    Their outer scores therefore include the effect of choosing among the declared candidate family.\n    Test years: all fits and the selection on the training years, scored on the test years (exploratory).\nScores per year (area-weighted over a region, equal years): blended RPS and RPSS, category Brier scores and skill\n(below and above normal), reliability tables; ensemble CRPS of the amounts (and the fair CRPS).\nTests against the operational method: paired whole-year sign-flip, Holm across the declared family\n(every method and target for the method comparisons; the targets for SEL-P, SEL-A and each sensitivity variant).\nVariants (e.g. the MVS all-zero guard) run through the same pipeline but are never chosen by SEL-P / SEL-A.\nCheckpoints (one per target and method) are reused only when the complete dependency fingerprint of the target\n(configuration contents, masks, input files, calculation code; bias_benchmark.dependencies) is unchanged.",
  "provenance": {
    "commit": "fb7425f593b8bc5f2550f0f47d4929e76eb3fb5c",
    "uncommitted_changes": false,
    "uncommitted_check": "code and configuration files this result depends on",
    "code_sha256": {
      "scripts/bias_methods.py": "f964fac9e23a92ba01fc39368d996aa660561cd8708f7552fbedc0627f6b3706",
      "scripts/bias_benchmark.py": "bd5d0cce44fa15275cc64fbaa1d9317aaefb43626b0f3a0b9c6a719c3b4fa24f",
      "scripts/bias_confirmation.py": "bbc95e4cb64256b101b5c0b30e2f351c5cd2b36893d4dfb0505c63577243f558",
      "scripts/significance.py": "3143761d5d201e4e62df9ad923757b952a3ea768b060c8a722afcd9b3d6a9963",
      "scripts/calibration_core.py": "f0635cc563e6d6aedb62799847b83fbb0f5cc12ee9f8c48ad48dda15a054fb62",
      "scripts/compare_calibration.py": "9aa137c9a02672ffacc2541cfd23cdab9b3294bf7cc77580a11e21208560866a",
      "scripts/local_blend.py": "ada5c571fb7762d2c333f83ad119d35f0784b82aa2cc35449a44cdf00c53c17d",
      "scripts/run_calibration.py": "1f34e8fc92fdd15983f1633de67fcb6a35882911b6b7072ca865df99d907afd0",
      "scripts/run_monthly.py": "dc13dfb54b78773afb6d0c25ebac8769552e5c071f5d2aed9ba2a01400e44f79",
      "scripts/cycle.py": "00e076fc93dc2c8a5caebf6a209fc3de09a5f69e16c2e7cb20bd7b36d2ecdcba",
      "scripts/common.py": "72b83f5c530017e317ea43af3a0e430e6d03f361bc032de374a0f942435cb0a1"
    },
    "config": {
      "path": "config/bias_correction/sep_ondj_ratio_limits.json",
      "sha256": "79f7c1d7a76c0f082de8627a48b71c56e616cad3007c76fda16f35c864f7a0c1"
    },
    "project_config": {
      "path": "config/ondj/project.json",
      "sha256": "e9ad8cfb30b21a731e86222ae0b592df124600d457d6fcd46d7a508a831c63de"
    },
    "cycle_config": {
      "path": "config/cycles/sep_2026_ondj.json",
      "sha256": "3f33a9615060aaefd7d2bd7318817a4d1b98ef57fc57132e6a48690a518349ab"
    },
    "masks": {
      "cells": {
        "path": "data/masks/ethiopia_common.nc",
        "sha256": "57ad8861c598abb9f175012920e5d0ef058e5b643cd6e4987cad3da6ac0b9e16"
      },
      "ethiopia": {
        "path": "data/masks/ethiopia_common.nc",
        "sha256": "57ad8861c598abb9f175012920e5d0ef058e5b643cd6e4987cad3da6ac0b9e16"
      },
      "ondj_domain": {
        "path": "data/masks/init09_ONDJ_regime_domain.nc",
        "sha256": "336c572d69af3c718de2ef0e537a2d2d98d73b98cab9b02f0b234501a523d83f"
      }
    },
    "inputs": {
      "Oct": {
        "folder": "data/processed/init09_Oct",
        "files": 65,
        "sha256": "0d2561be8800f597bd5f38f02dc670c9861a3aea08dc795d0d3e1105a909b6db"
      },
      "Nov": {
        "folder": "data/processed/init09_Nov",
        "files": 65,
        "sha256": "73d9d400dfa5457a448855f4a211901bf6884d03575b6efeee391376f3fa995a"
      },
      "Dec": {
        "folder": "data/processed/init09_Dec",
        "files": 65,
        "sha256": "df5a657046e479f4a70116e69305bec1938217a49df5b88475b272b397354a2d"
      },
      "Jan": {
        "folder": "data/processed/init09_Jan",
        "files": 65,
        "sha256": "fc51a4c4480bdc0b21d3f968861435ae0221b9660a0cd98c3ced69adad04e489"
      },
      "ONDJ": {
        "folder": "data/processed/init09_ONDJ",
        "files": 65,
        "sha256": "a8ba572412dc96aef88757296d4a01c83453576b53f79bf2ec734bd88c073fa7"
      }
    },
    "scoring_version": 3,
    "dependency_sha256": "7410d848e6ad2ec88cc618d7575c236b264f33f7ad01a920e9fb93c42d2d74b6",
    "python": "3.11.9",
    "numpy": "1.26.4",
    "checkpoint_keys": {
      "Oct": "dc430166c44fc9fbbcc2b2302366dc47bb46a64149ddd5c97fb31b21cd372481",
      "Nov": "33ca2e25327b73cfd3dd9d0c5ca7d757f1529b8c159a5879f51d15dfce7e0ec6",
      "Dec": "b33558491b366cf75cc08e289f5ca29df05d77f71c7f4d7a07618d0976c6bb78",
      "Jan": "ffb37eecc0fcdda93a473edc98fc95818fcb3cf31c89272f9b90de0df86d5fd7",
      "ONDJ": "e398bd20e6836b3636f952fb122f082980fcc7ce58287c493d6871f29e257786"
    }
  },
  "methods": [
    "mvs",
    "mvs_r3",
    "mvs_r4",
    "vs"
  ],
  "family": [
    "mvs",
    "mvs_r3",
    "mvs_r4",
    "vs"
  ],
  "variants": [],
  "reference": "mvs",
  "targets": {
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      "tag": "init09_Oct",
      "methods": {
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          "test": {
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