{
  "created_utc": "2026-10-12T20:58:07.289446+00:00",
  "config": "config/bias_correction/feb_fmam_ratio_limits.json",
  "config_contents": {
    "schema_version": 1,
    "name": "feb_fmam_ratio_limits",
    "description": "MVS ratio-limit study: February-initialized ECMWF SEAS5, FMAM season and its calendar months, every 0.25 deg cell of Ethiopia (docs/47). Operational MVS (spread ratio limited to 0.5-2) against the same correction with limits 1/3-3, 1/4-4 and none.",
    "cycle": "config/cycles/feb_2026_fmam.json",
    "project_config": "config/fmam_feb/project.json",
    "targets": [
      "Feb",
      "Mar",
      "Apr",
      "May",
      "FMAM"
    ],
    "training_years": [
      1993,
      2016
    ],
    "test_years": [
      2017,
      2025
    ],
    "all_years": [
      1993,
      2025
    ],
    "forecast_year": 2026,
    "cells": {
      "path": "data/masks/ethiopia_common.nc",
      "variable": "region_mask"
    },
    "regions": {
      "ethiopia": {
        "label": "All Ethiopia",
        "path": "data/masks/ethiopia_common.nc",
        "variable": "region_mask"
      },
      "fmam_domain": {
        "label": "FMAM rainfall contribution domain",
        "path": "data/masks/fmam_coverage_chirps_v3_1993_2025_v1.nc",
        "variable": "season_domain"
      }
    },
    "primary_region": "ethiopia",
    "reference_method": "mvs",
    "smoothing_alpha": 0.5,
    "dry_threshold_mm": 1.0,
    "pit_bins": 10,
    "methods": {
      "mvs": {
        "ratio_bounds": [
          0.5,
          2.0
        ],
        "min_model_sd": 1.0
      },
      "mvs_r3": {
        "base": "mvs",
        "label": "MVS, ratio limits 1/3-3",
        "family": "scaling",
        "ratio_bounds": [
          0.3333333333333333,
          3.0
        ],
        "min_model_sd": 1.0
      },
      "mvs_r4": {
        "base": "mvs",
        "label": "MVS, ratio limits 1/4-4",
        "family": "scaling",
        "ratio_bounds": [
          0.25,
          4.0
        ],
        "min_model_sd": 1.0
      },
      "vs": {
        "ratio_bounds": null,
        "min_model_sd": 1.0
      }
    },
    "example_cell_quantiles": [
      0.1,
      0.5,
      0.9
    ],
    "confirmation": {
      "methods": [
        "mvs",
        "mvs_r3",
        "mvs_r4",
        "vs"
      ],
      "variants": [],
      "selection_region": "ethiopia",
      "reliability_bins": 10,
      "reliability_methods": [
        "mvs",
        "mvs_r3",
        "mvs_r4",
        "vs"
      ],
      "output_root": "outputs/bias_correction_benchmark/feb_fmam/ratio_limits/confirmation"
    },
    "output_root": "outputs/bias_correction_benchmark/feb_fmam/ratio_limits"
  },
  "provenance": {
    "commit": "fb7425f593b8bc5f2550f0f47d4929e76eb3fb5c",
    "uncommitted_changes": false,
    "uncommitted_check": "code and configuration files this result depends on",
    "code_sha256": {
      "scripts/bias_methods.py": "f964fac9e23a92ba01fc39368d996aa660561cd8708f7552fbedc0627f6b3706",
      "scripts/bias_benchmark.py": "bd5d0cce44fa15275cc64fbaa1d9317aaefb43626b0f3a0b9c6a719c3b4fa24f",
      "scripts/bias_confirmation.py": "bbc95e4cb64256b101b5c0b30e2f351c5cd2b36893d4dfb0505c63577243f558",
      "scripts/significance.py": "3143761d5d201e4e62df9ad923757b952a3ea768b060c8a722afcd9b3d6a9963",
      "scripts/calibration_core.py": "f0635cc563e6d6aedb62799847b83fbb0f5cc12ee9f8c48ad48dda15a054fb62",
      "scripts/compare_calibration.py": "9aa137c9a02672ffacc2541cfd23cdab9b3294bf7cc77580a11e21208560866a",
      "scripts/local_blend.py": "ada5c571fb7762d2c333f83ad119d35f0784b82aa2cc35449a44cdf00c53c17d",
      "scripts/run_calibration.py": "1f34e8fc92fdd15983f1633de67fcb6a35882911b6b7072ca865df99d907afd0",
      "scripts/run_monthly.py": "dc13dfb54b78773afb6d0c25ebac8769552e5c071f5d2aed9ba2a01400e44f79",
      "scripts/cycle.py": "00e076fc93dc2c8a5caebf6a209fc3de09a5f69e16c2e7cb20bd7b36d2ecdcba",
      "scripts/common.py": "72b83f5c530017e317ea43af3a0e430e6d03f361bc032de374a0f942435cb0a1"
    },
    "config": {
      "path": "config/bias_correction/feb_fmam_ratio_limits.json",
      "sha256": "ff2b846daa31c1b3e99e462710430e76c6eabea959653f3dab63c22e69df67fb"
    },
    "project_config": {
      "path": "config/fmam_feb/project.json",
      "sha256": "9999e9e5e03f95998e3d22396d2d2e5bf2f8c79decfc571c715caf2878daa4a1"
    },
    "cycle_config": {
      "path": "config/cycles/feb_2026_fmam.json",
      "sha256": "120955984a14d292912b9a8d48f83af060290d40d6b54ed9d627b36280c0652b"
    },
    "masks": {
      "cells": {
        "path": "data/masks/ethiopia_common.nc",
        "sha256": "57ad8861c598abb9f175012920e5d0ef058e5b643cd6e4987cad3da6ac0b9e16"
      },
      "ethiopia": {
        "path": "data/masks/ethiopia_common.nc",
        "sha256": "57ad8861c598abb9f175012920e5d0ef058e5b643cd6e4987cad3da6ac0b9e16"
      },
      "fmam_domain": {
        "path": "data/masks/fmam_coverage_chirps_v3_1993_2025_v1.nc",
        "sha256": "c386d127f7041ed6b383c5f46b9537e3740bfee6b85f383e3a8b0792cac58fbb"
      }
    },
    "inputs": {
      "Feb": {
        "folder": "data/processed/init02_Feb",
        "files": 67,
        "sha256": "aa05fc058f64121f726ee7f06608768bafb243ef9702ccd6c154217f2a9a13d5"
      },
      "Mar": {
        "folder": "data/processed/init02_Mar",
        "files": 67,
        "sha256": "41b2c07eb813ed00ca81d1c21d2a620cd1cdbc2d2725e806669bd035f1a8f7cf"
      },
      "Apr": {
        "folder": "data/processed/init02_Apr",
        "files": 67,
        "sha256": "7c29ca912e693cabdd2d1626e106f967dd554116d18f98a18faa33f957dfb15e"
      },
      "May": {
        "folder": "data/processed/init02_May",
        "files": 67,
        "sha256": "c590b53da737506d77661bb04aa6caf2a91d62a0ab9b88d8a2ecbb7c49b925c0"
      },
      "FMAM": {
        "folder": "data/processed/init02_FMAM",
        "files": 67,
        "sha256": "6915035b5cc71c72bb89702c935f922163818566aa3868159a9183f7326db742"
      }
    },
    "scoring_version": 3,
    "dependency_sha256": "b615f9e7a75850b565cd0960a8ab21a5ac936431ba099126ae7a085a44ab7bbf",
    "python": "3.11.9",
    "numpy": "1.26.4"
  },
  "protocol": "Benchmark rainfall-amount bias-correction methods member by member, for every grid cell and target (docs/47).\n\nRead-only experiment: never touches the operational forecasts. Configured by config/bias_correction/<name>.json.\n\nDesigns (one score per year: area-weighted over a region; years weighted equally):\n  training    : leave-one-year-out within the training years; the scored year never enters a fit (clean; screened)\n  operational : fit on the training years, scored on the test years (exploratory; these years were seen before)\n  full        : leave-one-year-out within all observed years, for per-cell maps and distribution checks (descriptive)\n  forecast    : fit on all observed years, corrected forecast-year members of every method (member-by-member comparison)\nScores: ensemble CRPS (mm) of the empirical distribution delivered to users and its CRPSS against the CHIRPS training\nclimatology (primary); the fair CRPS (Ferro 2014) as a separately labelled diagnostic; ensemble-mean bias, MAE, RMSE\nand correlation; spread-error ratio; rank histograms; tercile RPS/RPSS of alpha-smoothed member counts (no\nclimatology blend); distribution of the pooled corrected members against CHIRPS (mean, standard deviation, 10/50/90th\npercentiles, exactly-0 and at-or-below-threshold shares); coverage of the amount and probability scores; how often\neach method's limits, caps and fallbacks act.\nScreening: each method against the reference (operational MVS) per target and score (CRPS, fair CRPS, RPS):\none-sided sign-flip test on the training-design per-year scores and no harm over the test years. Two\nmultiplicity families are reported: within one method across the targets (\"screen_pass\") and across every\ndeclared method and target (\"screen_pass_family\"; sensitivity variants such as the MVS all-zero guard are screened\nwithin method only). A screening pass is not an adoption decision. For the reference comparison, each cell's\ncontribution is also split by its climate group in the fold's training years (all 0 mm, all dry, mixed, always wet).",
  "gate_rule": "Screening rule (docs/36 rule applied as a screen): a method passes for a target and score if, on the leave-one-year-out 1993-2016 per-year scores, its mean improvement over mvs has a one-sided sign-flip p-value below 0.05 after Holm adjustment, and its mean score over 2017-2025 (fits on 1993-2016) is not worse. 'screen_pass': Holm across the 5 targets of one method. 'screen_pass_family': Holm across every method and target of the benchmark for that score. A screening pass is not an operational adoption decision (see the confirmation run).",
  "methods": {
    "mvs": {
      "label": "Mean-Variance Scaling (operational)",
      "family": "scaling",
      "definition": "x' = max(0, mu_obs + r (x - mu_model)), r = clip(sd_obs/sd_model, 0.5, 2); r = 1 if sd_model < 1 mm",
      "references": [
        "Torralba et al. 2017",
        "Manzanas et al. 2019"
      ],
      "member_wise": true,
      "uses_forecast_distribution": false,
      "parameters": {
        "ratio_bounds": [
          0.5,
          2.0
        ],
        "min_model_sd": 1.0
      },
      "base": null
    },
    "mvs_r3": {
      "label": "MVS, ratio limits 1/3-3",
      "family": "scaling",
      "definition": "x' = max(0, mu_obs + r (x - mu_model)), r = clip(sd_obs/sd_model, 0.5, 2); r = 1 if sd_model < 1 mm; parameters {'ratio_bounds': [0.3333333333333333, 3.0], 'min_model_sd': 1.0}",
      "references": [
        "Torralba et al. 2017",
        "Manzanas et al. 2019"
      ],
      "member_wise": true,
      "uses_forecast_distribution": false,
      "parameters": {
        "ratio_bounds": [
          0.3333333333333333,
          3.0
        ],
        "min_model_sd": 1.0
      },
      "base": "mvs"
    },
    "mvs_r4": {
      "label": "MVS, ratio limits 1/4-4",
      "family": "scaling",
      "definition": "x' = max(0, mu_obs + r (x - mu_model)), r = clip(sd_obs/sd_model, 0.5, 2); r = 1 if sd_model < 1 mm; parameters {'ratio_bounds': [0.25, 4.0], 'min_model_sd': 1.0}",
      "references": [
        "Torralba et al. 2017",
        "Manzanas et al. 2019"
      ],
      "member_wise": true,
      "uses_forecast_distribution": false,
      "parameters": {
        "ratio_bounds": [
          0.25,
          4.0
        ],
        "min_model_sd": 1.0
      },
      "base": "mvs"
    },
    "vs": {
      "label": "Variance Scaling (unbounded)",
      "family": "scaling",
      "definition": "Same algebra and the same r = 1 fallback (sd_model < 1 mm) as MVS, without the 0.5-2 ratio limits",
      "references": [
        "Teutschbein & Seibert 2012"
      ],
      "member_wise": true,
      "uses_forecast_distribution": false,
      "parameters": {
        "ratio_bounds": null,
        "min_model_sd": 1.0
      },
      "base": null
    }
  },
  "targets": {
    "Feb": {
      "tag": "init02_Feb",
      "cells": 1484,
      "methods": {
        "mvs": {
          "training": {
            "ethiopia": {
              "years": [
                1993,
                1994,
                1995,
                1996,
                1997,
                1998,
                1999,
                2000,
                2001,
                2002,
                2003,
                2004,
                2005,
                2006,
                2007,
                2008,
                2009,
                2010,
                2011,
                2012,
                2013,
                2014,
                2015,
                2016
              ],
              "per_year": {
                "crps": [
                  9.958440124768908,
                  2.5194137837183916,
                  6.675882175681669,
                  3.9440427149966264,
                  2.159942389321877,
                  9.823756682045255,
                  2.5689116320532466,
                  3.3214551598425435,
                  3.2590351545870324,
                  2.9654876569184667,
                  9.729461143467056,
                  5.939593315841851,
                  3.3245988387400134,
                  7.92292581828373,
                  6.554292706064692,
                  1.8553920795053191,
                  3.712931955677059,
                  20.525302024883548,
                  2.700893334766981,
                  2.051645230317703,
                  2.3905622269513396,
                  4.285509621237966,
                  2.5060116691614844,
                  4.638188631020586
                ],
                "crps_clim": [
                  23.284667911212587,
                  3.570418694039729,
                  8.664187246161891,
                  4.414584188793243,
                  4.17412909889816,
                  16.25329471183794,
                  3.8584724401638506,
                  4.245696599510476,
                  3.6698911288086773,
                  3.32770100825122,
                  7.9273830692352805,
                  3.158727103335094,
                  3.386806343170413,
                  6.902319664533068,
                  10.632197368513724,
                  3.1240434276464755,
                  3.8782525052097263,
                  28.264469349246895,
                  2.9648792529408503,
                  3.872969400259919,
                  3.1007437566346607,
                  4.353545654719579,
                  3.299826968492685,
                  4.614204893386611
                ],
                "crps_fair": [
                  9.620458269056334,
                  2.4521247914166504,
                  6.445387299842601,
                  3.7969351036722383,
                  2.120246024262957,
                  9.360703312423237,
                  2.4412575434351873,
                  3.217700356576176,
                  3.0901708175257663,
                  2.9014365875037127,
                  9.5652878721643,
                  5.7839525533701845,
                  3.1499180255792836,
                  7.684724116806179,
                  6.290242786275774,
                  1.7801539613986026,
                  3.6406864960722225,
                  20.19379036141606,
                  2.5702137047284226,
                  1.9471729733884096,
                  2.318793432797858,
                  4.126523734070505,
                  2.4270483395366607,
                  4.510948203984699
                ],
                "crps_fair_clim": [
                  23.029391203416978,
                  3.2778043930297773,
                  8.381220234076412,
                  4.1235686860688086,
                  3.882658188806501,
                  15.98470100934654,
                  3.5664036954912555,
                  3.9543612339275516,
                  3.3774652225615456,
                  3.0346270146545478,
                  7.643020594693502,
                  2.865333083403353,
                  3.093844291495935,
                  6.61601578202784,
                  10.352957648326644,
                  2.8305837189350216,
                  3.586221222781536,
                  28.01862408356878,
                  2.671118096928818,
                  3.580928111951141,
                  2.807239919758411,
                  4.062414548710915,
                  3.0067001831540465,
                  4.323567460178454
                ],
                "rps": [
                  0.06280249886356701,
                  0.5307833724385116,
                  0.26625800020166573,
                  0.4873420573956483,
                  0.4666750147409473,
                  0.3012304107647082,
                  0.44176842530309973,
                  0.5415873675556245,
                  0.3952678961019353,
                  0.4858673758976289,
                  0.7287385707402733,
                  0.5802766425077752,
                  0.4664609361522021,
                  0.5484153508099396,
                  0.2270189848886715,
                  0.41553141389607934,
                  0.434679639939044,
                  0.17745828612698974,
                  0.41441178262436384,
                  0.3563488748972253,
                  0.5067913331640003,
                  0.4388071131707256,
                  0.4683488830903861,
                  0.5379130871201393
                ],
                "rps_clim": [
                  0.5290059541759002,
                  0.47988962392562323,
                  0.4849075877887211,
                  0.4124150424884049,
                  0.502955886793367,
                  0.5029939372693721,
                  0.45905151377627607,
                  0.5225990933393452,
                  0.38206038671438824,
                  0.4436804395162057,
                  0.4801714472144227,
                  0.38090373683663276,
                  0.4015102412958623,
                  0.47008446725039066,
                  0.46611892150198586,
                  0.47073947275602157,
                  0.4008721535503825,
                  0.5160869071930275,
                  0.3868823232399181,
                  0.46624256720071,
                  0.4384388554267233,
                  0.41402493153199577,
                  0.41674923105831446,
                  0.4416090920361355
                ],
                "bias": [
                  -1.8027029394966316,
                  0.3850403965586179,
                  -2.3649199778752155,
                  -0.5688015503616894,
                  1.883028420573609,
                  4.096228336152394,
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                  5.352645426952648,
                  -0.4036484607941903,
                  -0.3242933855818079,
                  -7.023375440152576,
                  7.215466111424898,
                  4.800030499750974,
                  -4.283629272413447,
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                  1.6621846340835995,
                  -2.87077155408179,
                  -12.309935855612142,
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                  3.0958279066256167,
                  0.5836044668875314,
                  -1.8118513512205214,
                  0.5615643004309538,
                  -2.7519038108300236
                ],
                "mae": [
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                  3.3602720695431243,
                  9.016978600817364,
                  5.324165586582545,
                  2.7743859163929856,
                  15.71461116967823,
                  4.679669855499362,
                  5.506188704485464,
                  3.9573662789312216,
                  3.671136721413984,
                  11.83271249902697,
                  8.448225276057773,
                  6.065533356112606,
                  8.680700770425625,
                  9.780883815307595,
                  2.805361690539289,
                  4.489319673092444,
                  25.114926352524666,
                  4.571025865186361,
                  3.6417325532632217,
                  3.471708971021381,
                  5.255283758121144,
                  3.4725036548738797,
                  4.585004535165124
                ],
                "mse": [
                  475.3305677491823,
                  35.86406956985834,
                  223.46613438697457,
                  144.8863303115505,
                  18.642441290694062,
                  467.02028456527785,
                  54.97843814901746,
                  94.76049618336224,
                  54.15684226687569,
                  48.83533526370355,
                  346.00351643351786,
                  308.41418767558986,
                  96.83395592715732,
                  192.4092956119233,
                  221.0116474015929,
                  23.030012530113403,
                  83.29823133123561,
                  1158.978993405502,
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                  29.35133450232025,
                  40.71662094036747,
                  104.31368502311203,
                  47.15443184396634,
                  52.858414469850544
                ],
                "var": [
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                ],
                "zero": [
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                ],
                "dry": [
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                  0.15693309325059304,
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