{
  "created_utc": "2026-10-13T12:20:12.092955+00:00",
  "config": "config/probability_calibration/feb_fmam_phase2.json",
  "config_contents": {
    "description": "Phase 2, Pathway A: one-vs-rest binary calibrators (Platt, beta, isotonic) against the incumbent climatology blend; amount correction fixed (docs/48).",
    "benchmark_config": "config/bias_correction/feb_fmam.json",
    "amount_method": "mvs",
    "methods": [
      "climatology_blend",
      "platt_ovr",
      "beta_ovr",
      "isotonic_ovr"
    ],
    "parameters": {
      "platt_ovr": {
        "l2": 0.0001
      }
    },
    "selection": true,
    "selection_region": "ethiopia",
    "output_root": "outputs/probability_calibration/feb_fmam/phase2_binary",
    "selection_folds": 6
  },
  "protocol": "Phase 1 probability-calibration benchmark (docs/48): which tercile-probability method gives the best published probabilities?\n\nPathway A: the amount correction is fixed (the operational MVS, configurable); the probability-calibration stage is replaced.\nFor each target, nested year-based validation over the training years:\n  outer leave-one-year-out: for the left-out year y every fit uses only the other training years \u2014 the amount correction and\n  terciles (each inner year z from a fit without y and z), and every calibrator's parameters, fitted on the inner out-of-fold\n  records of the other years; the calibrated probabilities of year y are then scored.\n  test years: fits on all training years (calibrators on their leave-one-year-out records), scored on the test years\n  (exploratory).\n  SEL: a calibrator is chosen for each outer year by inner cross-validation of the calibrators (blocks of consecutive\n  years, 'selection_folds') on the inner records only (lowest inner RPS), so its score includes the choice among the methods.\nScores (per year, area-weighted over a region; equal years): RPS/RPSS (primary), category Brier scores and skill, log loss\nand its skill against climatology, reliability tables. Tests: each method against the incumbent climatology blend, paired\nwhole-year sign-flip, Holm across every method and target; SEL against the incumbent, Holm across the targets; no harm over\nthe test years.\n\n  python scripts/prob_benchmark.py --config config/probability_calibration/sep_ondj.json",
  "provenance": {
    "commit": "6d8236d4a4451887bffc84aaee53f54723a9d820",
    "uncommitted_changes": false,
    "uncommitted_check": "code and configuration files this result depends on",
    "code_sha256": {
      "scripts/bias_methods.py": "f964fac9e23a92ba01fc39368d996aa660561cd8708f7552fbedc0627f6b3706",
      "scripts/bias_benchmark.py": "bd5d0cce44fa15275cc64fbaa1d9317aaefb43626b0f3a0b9c6a719c3b4fa24f",
      "scripts/bias_confirmation.py": "bbc95e4cb64256b101b5c0b30e2f351c5cd2b36893d4dfb0505c63577243f558",
      "scripts/significance.py": "3143761d5d201e4e62df9ad923757b952a3ea768b060c8a722afcd9b3d6a9963",
      "scripts/calibration_core.py": "f0635cc563e6d6aedb62799847b83fbb0f5cc12ee9f8c48ad48dda15a054fb62",
      "scripts/compare_calibration.py": "9aa137c9a02672ffacc2541cfd23cdab9b3294bf7cc77580a11e21208560866a",
      "scripts/local_blend.py": "ada5c571fb7762d2c333f83ad119d35f0784b82aa2cc35449a44cdf00c53c17d",
      "scripts/run_calibration.py": "1f34e8fc92fdd15983f1633de67fcb6a35882911b6b7072ca865df99d907afd0",
      "scripts/run_monthly.py": "dc13dfb54b78773afb6d0c25ebac8769552e5c071f5d2aed9ba2a01400e44f79",
      "scripts/cycle.py": "00e076fc93dc2c8a5caebf6a209fc3de09a5f69e16c2e7cb20bd7b36d2ecdcba",
      "scripts/common.py": "72b83f5c530017e317ea43af3a0e430e6d03f361bc032de374a0f942435cb0a1"
    },
    "config": {
      "path": "config/bias_correction/feb_fmam.json",
      "sha256": "5e74d282f6e0f984a3bb2d0527f665d535894be91f139628db7e8deb7d5374c9"
    },
    "project_config": {
      "path": "config/fmam_feb/project.json",
      "sha256": "9999e9e5e03f95998e3d22396d2d2e5bf2f8c79decfc571c715caf2878daa4a1"
    },
    "cycle_config": {
      "path": "config/cycles/feb_2026_fmam.json",
      "sha256": "120955984a14d292912b9a8d48f83af060290d40d6b54ed9d627b36280c0652b"
    },
    "masks": {
      "cells": {
        "path": "data/masks/ethiopia_common.nc",
        "sha256": "57ad8861c598abb9f175012920e5d0ef058e5b643cd6e4987cad3da6ac0b9e16"
      },
      "ethiopia": {
        "path": "data/masks/ethiopia_common.nc",
        "sha256": "57ad8861c598abb9f175012920e5d0ef058e5b643cd6e4987cad3da6ac0b9e16"
      },
      "fmam_domain": {
        "path": "data/masks/fmam_coverage_chirps_v3_1993_2025_v1.nc",
        "sha256": "c386d127f7041ed6b383c5f46b9537e3740bfee6b85f383e3a8b0792cac58fbb"
      }
    },
    "inputs": {
      "Feb": {
        "folder": "data/processed/init02_Feb",
        "files": 67,
        "sha256": "aa05fc058f64121f726ee7f06608768bafb243ef9702ccd6c154217f2a9a13d5"
      },
      "Mar": {
        "folder": "data/processed/init02_Mar",
        "files": 67,
        "sha256": "41b2c07eb813ed00ca81d1c21d2a620cd1cdbc2d2725e806669bd035f1a8f7cf"
      },
      "Apr": {
        "folder": "data/processed/init02_Apr",
        "files": 67,
        "sha256": "7c29ca912e693cabdd2d1626e106f967dd554116d18f98a18faa33f957dfb15e"
      },
      "May": {
        "folder": "data/processed/init02_May",
        "files": 67,
        "sha256": "c590b53da737506d77661bb04aa6caf2a91d62a0ab9b88d8a2ecbb7c49b925c0"
      },
      "FMAM": {
        "folder": "data/processed/init02_FMAM",
        "files": 67,
        "sha256": "6915035b5cc71c72bb89702c935f922163818566aa3868159a9183f7326db742"
      }
    },
    "scoring_version": 3,
    "dependency_sha256": "48caccb09fad2e9ffb99c16c117a2a316e3649df3d0cf9295084fe5a3101064c",
    "python": "3.11.9",
    "numpy": "1.26.4"
  },
  "phase": 1,
  "pathway": "A: fixed amount correction, replaced probability calibration",
  "amount_method": "mvs",
  "incumbent": "climatology_blend",
  "methods": [
    "climatology_blend",
    "platt_ovr",
    "beta_ovr",
    "isotonic_ovr"
  ],
  "version": 1,
  "registry": {
    "climatology_blend": {
      "name": "Climatology blend (incumbent)",
      "inputs": "smoothed probabilities and training climatology",
      "multiclass": "joint",
      "parameters": "lambda: one per target, minimum RPS",
      "references": [
        "Rajagopalan et al. 2002"
      ],
      "incumbent": true,
      "outputs": "tercile probabilities only (no CDF)"
    },
    "platt_ovr": {
      "name": "Platt (sigmoid) calibration, one-vs-rest + normalization",
      "inputs": "logit of each smoothed category probability",
      "multiclass": "one-vs-rest, then divided by the sum",
      "parameters": "2 per category (intercept, slope), L2 1e-4 on the slope, binary log loss",
      "references": [
        "Platt 1999"
      ],
      "incumbent": false,
      "outputs": "tercile probabilities only (no CDF)"
    },
    "beta_ovr": {
      "name": "Beta calibration, one-vs-rest + normalization",
      "inputs": "ln p_k and ln(1 - p_k) of each smoothed category probability",
      "multiclass": "one-vs-rest, then divided by the sum",
      "parameters": "3 per category (c, a >= 0, b >= 0), binary log loss",
      "references": [
        "Kull et al. 2017"
      ],
      "incumbent": false,
      "outputs": "tercile probabilities only (no CDF)"
    },
    "isotonic_ovr": {
      "name": "Isotonic regression, one-vs-rest + normalization",
      "inputs": "each smoothed category probability",
      "multiclass": "one-vs-rest, then divided by the sum",
      "parameters": "monotone step map per category, pooled over cells and years (weighted pool-adjacent-violators)",
      "references": [
        "Zadrozny & Elkan 2002"
      ],
      "incumbent": false,
      "outputs": "tercile probabilities only (no CDF)"
    }
  },
  "regions": {
    "ethiopia": "All Ethiopia",
    "fmam_domain": "FMAM rainfall contribution domain"
  },
  "primary_region": "ethiopia",
  "training_years": [
    1993,
    2016
  ],
  "test_years": [
    2017,
    2025
  ],
  "targets": {
    "Feb": {
      "tag": "init02_Feb",
      "methods": {
        "climatology_blend": {
          "training": {
            "ethiopia": {
              "years": [
                1993,
                1994,
                1995,
                1996,
                1997,
                1998,
                1999,
                2000,
                2001,
                2002,
                2003,
                2004,
                2005,
                2006,
                2007,
                2008,
                2009,
                2010,
                2011,
                2012,
                2013,
                2014,
                2015,
                2016
              ],
              "per_year": {
                "rps": [
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                  0.45303788000804884,
                  0.33268488659805484,
                  0.42701279488378235,
                  0.41841242170453297,
                  0.3194159203844659,
                  0.4195852458115674,
                  0.4933798948985926,
                  0.3628012208168902,
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                  0.5840367302696414,
                  0.4417653447212832,
                  0.41271573599677913,
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                  0.27655931887302454,
                  0.3995465457948823,
                  0.3807631876545,
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                  0.458420218085758
                ],
                "rps_clim": [
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                "brier_below": [
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                  0.1346457946646722,
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                  0.18640214216948392
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                "brier_below_clim": [
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                  0.3240468021697362,
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                  0.1934689386829828,
                  0.21938847245972978,
                  0.15272693725494546,
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                  0.3369986467976019,
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                  0.12718492747837762,
                  0.2526297611075025,
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                  0.30060479918432803,
                  0.1409360490589818,
                  0.2547240986771653,
                  0.1707498076532336
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                "brier_above": [
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                  0.12456552508953123,
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                "brier_above_clim": [
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                "log_loss": [
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                  1.0087894328146714,
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                  1.153971499224365,
                  1.0504282333975246,
                  1.098013758744755,
                  1.1071124707168107
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                "log_loss_clim": [
                  1.0636365215990604,
                  1.0851020934385713,
                  1.0829845357788488,
                  1.114915471528915,
                  1.0751910196539225,
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                  1.1009887350094487,
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              "rps": 0.39567972440710797,
              "rpss": 0.1263736164396203,
              "bss_below": 0.06512527212516095,
              "bss_above": 0.18796867271874562,
              "log_loss": 1.019170916797012,
              "log_loss_skill": 0.07100797054236485,
              "reliability": {
                "below": {
                  "weight": [
                    0.0,
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                    0.11676,
                    0.113968,
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                    0.141315,
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                  "mean_forecast": [
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                  ]
                }
              }
            },
            "fmam_domain": {
              "years": [
                1993,
                1994,
                1995,
                1996,
                1997,
                1998,
                1999,
                2000,
                2001,
                2002,
                2003,
                2004,
                2005,
                2006,
                2007,
                2008,
                2009,
                2010,
                2011,
                2012,
                2013,
                2014,
                2015,
                2016
              ],
              "per_year": {
                "rps": [
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                "brier_below": [
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                "brier_above": [
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