{
  "created_utc": "2026-10-12T14:33:28.758270+00:00",
  "config": "config/bias_correction/feb_fmam.json",
  "protocol": "Selection-aware confirmation of rainfall-amount bias-correction methods through the full probability pipeline (docs/47).\n\nRead-only experiment. Configured by the \"confirmation\" block of config/bias_correction/<name>.json; any cycle, any\nmethod of the registry (scripts/bias_methods.py).\n\nPipeline for one amount method (the operational one, with the amount correction swapped):\n    corrected members -> tercile counts against the training CHIRPS terciles -> alpha smoothing\n    -> blend with climatology, p = (1 - lambda) p_s + lambda p_clim, one lambda per target fitted by\n       leave-one-year-out within the training years (local_blend.fit_weights, over the full rectangle as operationally)\nDesign:\n    outer leave-one-year-out over the training years. For outer year y every fit (amount correction, terciles,\n    climatology, lambda) uses only the other training years; lambda comes from inner leave-one-year-out within them.\n    Selection-aware procedures choose a method for year y with the inner (training-only) scores:\n        SEL-P: lowest inner blended RPS (probability product); SEL-A: lowest inner CRPS (amount product).\n    Their outer scores therefore include the effect of choosing among the declared candidate family.\n    Test years: all fits and the selection on the training years, scored on the test years (exploratory).\nScores per year (area-weighted over a region, equal years): blended RPS and RPSS, category Brier scores and skill\n(below and above normal), reliability tables; ensemble CRPS of the amounts (and the fair CRPS).\nTests against the operational method: paired whole-year sign-flip, Holm across the declared family\n(every method and target for the method comparisons; the targets for SEL-P, SEL-A and each sensitivity variant).\nVariants (e.g. the MVS all-zero guard) run through the same pipeline but are never chosen by SEL-P / SEL-A.\nCheckpoints (one per target and method) are reused only when the complete dependency fingerprint of the target\n(configuration contents, masks, input files, calculation code; bias_benchmark.dependencies) is unchanged.",
  "provenance": {
    "commit": "9f397927f5d4ddf2be3a1fa52595f34fc8fcb56a",
    "uncommitted_changes": false,
    "code_sha256": {
      "scripts/bias_methods.py": "03b2fdd8a645b96f27e4087a96408c0b412b135c80bfc23637757c6c44f9c370",
      "scripts/bias_benchmark.py": "b2cbc28349379aa016ef81d0255ac9edd21b38ffc5425b9a12c93a1df52e9084",
      "scripts/bias_confirmation.py": "f2fd9f9c0a73d3ed54e670f7770b47139793173cbdcd42dda1ba642be90848cc",
      "scripts/significance.py": "3143761d5d201e4e62df9ad923757b952a3ea768b060c8a722afcd9b3d6a9963",
      "scripts/calibration_core.py": "f0635cc563e6d6aedb62799847b83fbb0f5cc12ee9f8c48ad48dda15a054fb62",
      "scripts/compare_calibration.py": "9aa137c9a02672ffacc2541cfd23cdab9b3294bf7cc77580a11e21208560866a",
      "scripts/local_blend.py": "ada5c571fb7762d2c333f83ad119d35f0784b82aa2cc35449a44cdf00c53c17d",
      "scripts/run_calibration.py": "1f34e8fc92fdd15983f1633de67fcb6a35882911b6b7072ca865df99d907afd0",
      "scripts/run_monthly.py": "dc13dfb54b78773afb6d0c25ebac8769552e5c071f5d2aed9ba2a01400e44f79",
      "scripts/cycle.py": "00e076fc93dc2c8a5caebf6a209fc3de09a5f69e16c2e7cb20bd7b36d2ecdcba",
      "scripts/common.py": "72b83f5c530017e317ea43af3a0e430e6d03f361bc032de374a0f942435cb0a1"
    },
    "config": {
      "path": "config/bias_correction/feb_fmam.json",
      "sha256": "5e74d282f6e0f984a3bb2d0527f665d535894be91f139628db7e8deb7d5374c9"
    },
    "project_config": {
      "path": "config/fmam_feb/project.json",
      "sha256": "9999e9e5e03f95998e3d22396d2d2e5bf2f8c79decfc571c715caf2878daa4a1"
    },
    "cycle_config": {
      "path": "config/cycles/feb_2026_fmam.json",
      "sha256": "120955984a14d292912b9a8d48f83af060290d40d6b54ed9d627b36280c0652b"
    },
    "masks": {
      "cells": {
        "path": "data/masks/ethiopia_common.nc",
        "sha256": "57ad8861c598abb9f175012920e5d0ef058e5b643cd6e4987cad3da6ac0b9e16"
      },
      "ethiopia": {
        "path": "data/masks/ethiopia_common.nc",
        "sha256": "57ad8861c598abb9f175012920e5d0ef058e5b643cd6e4987cad3da6ac0b9e16"
      },
      "fmam_domain": {
        "path": "data/masks/fmam_coverage_chirps_v3_1993_2025_v1.nc",
        "sha256": "c386d127f7041ed6b383c5f46b9537e3740bfee6b85f383e3a8b0792cac58fbb"
      }
    },
    "inputs": {
      "Feb": {
        "folder": "data/processed/init02_Feb",
        "files": 67,
        "sha256": "aa05fc058f64121f726ee7f06608768bafb243ef9702ccd6c154217f2a9a13d5"
      },
      "Mar": {
        "folder": "data/processed/init02_Mar",
        "files": 67,
        "sha256": "41b2c07eb813ed00ca81d1c21d2a620cd1cdbc2d2725e806669bd035f1a8f7cf"
      },
      "Apr": {
        "folder": "data/processed/init02_Apr",
        "files": 67,
        "sha256": "7c29ca912e693cabdd2d1626e106f967dd554116d18f98a18faa33f957dfb15e"
      },
      "May": {
        "folder": "data/processed/init02_May",
        "files": 67,
        "sha256": "c590b53da737506d77661bb04aa6caf2a91d62a0ab9b88d8a2ecbb7c49b925c0"
      },
      "FMAM": {
        "folder": "data/processed/init02_FMAM",
        "files": 67,
        "sha256": "6915035b5cc71c72bb89702c935f922163818566aa3868159a9183f7326db742"
      }
    },
    "scoring_version": 3,
    "dependency_sha256": "fe51e7585ac5c768040f758353565a1b438e5069af37ebb9541ef385ab323fdb",
    "python": "3.11.9",
    "numpy": "1.26.4",
    "checkpoint_keys": {
      "Feb": "d85b4135438c89e79e9ccf745ce54d8b9bbdd9780d483cc75081b58a4e09ff4a",
      "Mar": "3cac9cbd1192cb57b07f46f3c081c3530a877e9f0a3823be8596c24395bd56ee",
      "Apr": "759a8d4df219f45f36a361e3dd4ed6029b2dc3341743cfd6faa1025bbe6c2e6f",
      "May": "0468a89bd24c3f9e8b5e04af3b66cbe8b240cc72f2b361ed2b725edb0cde84ca",
      "FMAM": "26d63e77cb25d27643f46c06192252e440310ba74165cdbccdcaca028c2b0f59"
    }
  },
  "methods": [
    "mvs",
    "ls",
    "vs",
    "sqrt_mvs",
    "pt",
    "dc",
    "loci",
    "eqm",
    "gqm",
    "dqm",
    "qdm",
    "sdm",
    "cdft",
    "mvs_zero_guard"
  ],
  "family": [
    "mvs",
    "ls",
    "vs",
    "sqrt_mvs",
    "pt",
    "dc",
    "loci",
    "eqm",
    "gqm",
    "dqm",
    "qdm",
    "sdm",
    "cdft"
  ],
  "variants": [
    "mvs_zero_guard"
  ],
  "reference": "mvs",
  "targets": {
    "Feb": {
      "tag": "init02_Feb",
      "methods": {
        "mvs": {
          "lambda_": {
            "training_mean": 0.48230585625266126,
            "training": [
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            "test": 0.4837304965364892
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          "training": {
            "ethiopia": {
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                1994,
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                1997,
                1998,
                1999,
                2000,
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                2003,
                2004,
                2005,
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                2007,
                2008,
                2009,
                2010,
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                2012,
                2013,
                2014,
                2015,
                2016
              ],
              "per_year": {
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            },
            "fmam_domain": {
              "years": [
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              ],
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          },
          "test": {
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        },
        "SEL-A": {
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            "1995": "sqrt_mvs",
            "1996": "sqrt_mvs",
            "1997": "sqrt_mvs",
            "1998": "sqrt_mvs",
            "1999": "sqrt_mvs",
            "2000": "sqrt_mvs",
            "2001": "sqrt_mvs",
            "2002": "sqrt_mvs",
            "2003": "sqrt_mvs",
            "2004": "sqrt_mvs",
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            "2006": "sqrt_mvs",
            "2007": "sqrt_mvs",
            "2008": "sqrt_mvs",
            "2009": "sqrt_mvs",
            "2010": "sqrt_mvs",
            "2011": "sqrt_mvs",
            "2012": "sqrt_mvs",
            "2013": "sqrt_mvs",
            "2014": "sqrt_mvs",
            "2015": "sqrt_mvs",
            "2016": "sqrt_mvs"
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          "test": {
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        "SEL-A": {
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            "1995": "sqrt_mvs",
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            "2001": "sqrt_mvs",
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            "2013": "sqrt_mvs",
            "2014": "sqrt_mvs",
            "2015": "sqrt_mvs",
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        },
        "SEL-A": {
          "criterion": "inner CRPS (training years only)",
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          "test": {
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