{ "created_utc": "2026-10-12T20:49:53.939984+00:00", "config": "config/bias_correction/sep_ondj_ratio_limits.json", "config_contents": { "schema_version": 1, "name": "sep_ondj_ratio_limits", "description": "MVS ratio-limit study: September-initialized ECMWF SEAS5, ONDJ season and its calendar months, every 0.25 deg cell of Ethiopia (docs/47). Operational MVS (spread ratio limited to 0.5-2) against the same correction with limits 1/3-3, 1/4-4 and none.", "cycle": "config/cycles/sep_2026_ondj.json", "project_config": "config/ondj/project.json", "targets": [ "Oct", "Nov", "Dec", "Jan", "ONDJ" ], "training_years": [ 1993, 2016 ], "test_years": [ 2017, 2024 ], "all_years": [ 1993, 2024 ], "forecast_year": 2026, "cells": { "path": "data/masks/ethiopia_common.nc", "variable": "region_mask" }, "regions": { "ethiopia": { "label": "All Ethiopia", "path": "data/masks/ethiopia_common.nc", "variable": "region_mask" }, "ondj_domain": { "label": "ONDJ R3 (Deyr) domain", "path": "data/masks/init09_ONDJ_regime_domain.nc", "variable": "season_domain" } }, "primary_region": "ethiopia", "reference_method": "mvs", "smoothing_alpha": 0.5, "dry_threshold_mm": 1.0, "pit_bins": 10, "methods": { "mvs": { "ratio_bounds": [ 0.5, 2.0 ], "min_model_sd": 1.0 }, "mvs_r3": { "base": "mvs", "label": "MVS, ratio limits 1/3-3", "family": "scaling", "ratio_bounds": [ 0.3333333333333333, 3.0 ], "min_model_sd": 1.0 }, "mvs_r4": { "base": "mvs", "label": "MVS, ratio limits 1/4-4", "family": "scaling", "ratio_bounds": [ 0.25, 4.0 ], "min_model_sd": 1.0 }, "vs": { "ratio_bounds": null, "min_model_sd": 1.0 } }, "example_cell_quantiles": [ 0.1, 0.5, 0.9 ], "confirmation": { "methods": [ "mvs", "mvs_r3", "mvs_r4", "vs" ], "variants": [], "selection_region": "ethiopia", "reliability_bins": 10, "reliability_methods": [ "mvs", "mvs_r3", "mvs_r4", "vs" ], "output_root": "outputs/bias_correction_benchmark/sep_ondj/ratio_limits/confirmation" }, "output_root": "outputs/bias_correction_benchmark/sep_ondj/ratio_limits" }, "provenance": { "commit": "fb7425f593b8bc5f2550f0f47d4929e76eb3fb5c", "uncommitted_changes": false, "uncommitted_check": "code and configuration files this result depends on", "code_sha256": { "scripts/bias_methods.py": "f964fac9e23a92ba01fc39368d996aa660561cd8708f7552fbedc0627f6b3706", "scripts/bias_benchmark.py": "bd5d0cce44fa15275cc64fbaa1d9317aaefb43626b0f3a0b9c6a719c3b4fa24f", "scripts/bias_confirmation.py": "bbc95e4cb64256b101b5c0b30e2f351c5cd2b36893d4dfb0505c63577243f558", "scripts/significance.py": "3143761d5d201e4e62df9ad923757b952a3ea768b060c8a722afcd9b3d6a9963", "scripts/calibration_core.py": "f0635cc563e6d6aedb62799847b83fbb0f5cc12ee9f8c48ad48dda15a054fb62", "scripts/compare_calibration.py": "9aa137c9a02672ffacc2541cfd23cdab9b3294bf7cc77580a11e21208560866a", "scripts/local_blend.py": "ada5c571fb7762d2c333f83ad119d35f0784b82aa2cc35449a44cdf00c53c17d", "scripts/run_calibration.py": "1f34e8fc92fdd15983f1633de67fcb6a35882911b6b7072ca865df99d907afd0", "scripts/run_monthly.py": "dc13dfb54b78773afb6d0c25ebac8769552e5c071f5d2aed9ba2a01400e44f79", "scripts/cycle.py": "00e076fc93dc2c8a5caebf6a209fc3de09a5f69e16c2e7cb20bd7b36d2ecdcba", "scripts/common.py": "72b83f5c530017e317ea43af3a0e430e6d03f361bc032de374a0f942435cb0a1" }, "config": { "path": "config/bias_correction/sep_ondj_ratio_limits.json", "sha256": "79f7c1d7a76c0f082de8627a48b71c56e616cad3007c76fda16f35c864f7a0c1" }, "project_config": { "path": "config/ondj/project.json", "sha256": "e9ad8cfb30b21a731e86222ae0b592df124600d457d6fcd46d7a508a831c63de" }, "cycle_config": { "path": "config/cycles/sep_2026_ondj.json", "sha256": "3f33a9615060aaefd7d2bd7318817a4d1b98ef57fc57132e6a48690a518349ab" }, "masks": { "cells": { "path": "data/masks/ethiopia_common.nc", "sha256": "57ad8861c598abb9f175012920e5d0ef058e5b643cd6e4987cad3da6ac0b9e16" }, "ethiopia": { "path": "data/masks/ethiopia_common.nc", "sha256": "57ad8861c598abb9f175012920e5d0ef058e5b643cd6e4987cad3da6ac0b9e16" }, "ondj_domain": { "path": "data/masks/init09_ONDJ_regime_domain.nc", "sha256": "336c572d69af3c718de2ef0e537a2d2d98d73b98cab9b02f0b234501a523d83f" } }, "inputs": { "Oct": { "folder": "data/processed/init09_Oct", "files": 65, "sha256": "0d2561be8800f597bd5f38f02dc670c9861a3aea08dc795d0d3e1105a909b6db" }, "Nov": { "folder": "data/processed/init09_Nov", "files": 65, "sha256": "73d9d400dfa5457a448855f4a211901bf6884d03575b6efeee391376f3fa995a" }, "Dec": { "folder": "data/processed/init09_Dec", "files": 65, "sha256": "df5a657046e479f4a70116e69305bec1938217a49df5b88475b272b397354a2d" }, "Jan": { "folder": "data/processed/init09_Jan", "files": 65, "sha256": "fc51a4c4480bdc0b21d3f968861435ae0221b9660a0cd98c3ced69adad04e489" }, "ONDJ": { "folder": "data/processed/init09_ONDJ", "files": 65, "sha256": "a8ba572412dc96aef88757296d4a01c83453576b53f79bf2ec734bd88c073fa7" } }, "scoring_version": 3, "dependency_sha256": "7410d848e6ad2ec88cc618d7575c236b264f33f7ad01a920e9fb93c42d2d74b6", "python": "3.11.9", "numpy": "1.26.4" }, "protocol": "Benchmark rainfall-amount bias-correction methods member by member, for every grid cell and target (docs/47).\n\nRead-only experiment: never touches the operational forecasts. Configured by config/bias_correction/.json.\n\nDesigns (one score per year: area-weighted over a region; years weighted equally):\n training : leave-one-year-out within the training years; the scored year never enters a fit (clean; screened)\n operational : fit on the training years, scored on the test years (exploratory; these years were seen before)\n full : leave-one-year-out within all observed years, for per-cell maps and distribution checks (descriptive)\n forecast : fit on all observed years, corrected forecast-year members of every method (member-by-member comparison)\nScores: ensemble CRPS (mm) of the empirical distribution delivered to users and its CRPSS against the CHIRPS training\nclimatology (primary); the fair CRPS (Ferro 2014) as a separately labelled diagnostic; ensemble-mean bias, MAE, RMSE\nand correlation; spread-error ratio; rank histograms; tercile RPS/RPSS of alpha-smoothed member counts (no\nclimatology blend); distribution of the pooled corrected members against CHIRPS (mean, standard deviation, 10/50/90th\npercentiles, exactly-0 and at-or-below-threshold shares); coverage of the amount and probability scores; how often\neach method's limits, caps and fallbacks act.\nScreening: each method against the reference (operational MVS) per target and score (CRPS, fair CRPS, RPS):\none-sided sign-flip test on the training-design per-year scores and no harm over the test years. Two\nmultiplicity families are reported: within one method across the targets (\"screen_pass\") and across every\ndeclared method and target (\"screen_pass_family\"; sensitivity variants such as the MVS all-zero guard are screened\nwithin method only). A screening pass is not an adoption decision. For the reference comparison, each cell's\ncontribution is also split by its climate group in the fold's training years (all 0 mm, all dry, mixed, always wet).", "gate_rule": "Screening rule (docs/36 rule applied as a screen): a method passes for a target and score if, on the leave-one-year-out 1993-2016 per-year scores, its mean improvement over mvs has a one-sided sign-flip p-value below 0.05 after Holm adjustment, and its mean score over 2017-2024 (fits on 1993-2016) is not worse. 'screen_pass': Holm across the 5 targets of one method. 'screen_pass_family': Holm across every method and target of the benchmark for that score. A screening pass is not an operational adoption decision (see the confirmation run).", "methods": { "mvs": { "label": "Mean-Variance Scaling (operational)", "family": "scaling", "definition": "x' = max(0, mu_obs + r (x - mu_model)), r = clip(sd_obs/sd_model, 0.5, 2); r = 1 if sd_model < 1 mm", "references": [ "Torralba et al. 2017", "Manzanas et al. 2019" ], "member_wise": true, "uses_forecast_distribution": false, "parameters": { "ratio_bounds": [ 0.5, 2.0 ], "min_model_sd": 1.0 }, "base": null }, "mvs_r3": { "label": "MVS, ratio limits 1/3-3", "family": "scaling", "definition": "x' = max(0, mu_obs + r (x - mu_model)), r = clip(sd_obs/sd_model, 0.5, 2); r = 1 if sd_model < 1 mm; parameters {'ratio_bounds': [0.3333333333333333, 3.0], 'min_model_sd': 1.0}", "references": [ "Torralba et al. 2017", "Manzanas et al. 2019" ], "member_wise": true, "uses_forecast_distribution": false, "parameters": { "ratio_bounds": [ 0.3333333333333333, 3.0 ], "min_model_sd": 1.0 }, "base": "mvs" }, "mvs_r4": { "label": "MVS, ratio limits 1/4-4", "family": "scaling", "definition": "x' = max(0, mu_obs + r (x - mu_model)), r = clip(sd_obs/sd_model, 0.5, 2); r = 1 if sd_model < 1 mm; parameters {'ratio_bounds': [0.25, 4.0], 'min_model_sd': 1.0}", "references": [ "Torralba et al. 2017", "Manzanas et al. 2019" ], "member_wise": true, "uses_forecast_distribution": false, "parameters": { "ratio_bounds": [ 0.25, 4.0 ], "min_model_sd": 1.0 }, "base": "mvs" }, "vs": { "label": "Variance Scaling (unbounded)", "family": "scaling", "definition": "Same algebra and the same r = 1 fallback (sd_model < 1 mm) as MVS, without the 0.5-2 ratio limits", "references": [ "Teutschbein & Seibert 2012" ], "member_wise": true, "uses_forecast_distribution": false, "parameters": { "ratio_bounds": null, "min_model_sd": 1.0 }, "base": null } }, "targets": { "Oct": { "tag": "init09_Oct", "cells": 1484, "methods": { "mvs": { "training": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 29.67378959578211, 20.391710220288235, 22.129602483451148, 22.606699978541446, 99.1542486238311, 32.93961343557478, 34.14804082557553, 45.31052759801551, 16.980509293805117, 23.26363806472486, 34.30641070958419, 21.66731195674539, 15.501370574446222, 34.031364433764544, 32.680926856220296, 25.495291655143287, 22.713076497112922, 37.677729960815604, 23.727450421654112, 24.26467590576457, 21.75295835619263, 35.632381591353855, 23.431074730987095, 20.829059109155565 ], "crps_clim": [ 23.77074843142727, 22.60409869067204, 18.38031484850475, 25.959936518793185, 123.34118991059545, 35.588714164776064, 39.220907889439694, 39.49590059501811, 18.35094398856043, 19.018950574892433, 27.831563580748035, 21.968021793696813, 21.56629431892967, 37.55562250213345, 20.343092113101918, 25.75266643361196, 21.96609944248159, 25.58890298078945, 24.791989124537817, 21.665834698643923, 21.79847843728042, 34.8315441627334, 25.585209165511976, 22.091569801149358 ], "crps_fair": [ 28.700065628098088, 19.311769171793664, 21.117289676800727, 21.58867465843282, 98.06472083843083, 32.036766836077454, 33.08690667975023, 44.2852431162132, 16.028423498075494, 22.097836363186147, 33.164062673101725, 20.57206902125968, 14.575606472933519, 33.02204418715376, 31.638325839443873, 24.52548189477754, 21.55428891092256, 36.58087774522162, 22.713270224784914, 23.286872816493382, 20.64893357748274, 34.69737998618328, 22.104023616712695, 19.940812916353636 ], "crps_fair_clim": [ 22.51064113159216, 21.34178182693399, 17.109998394156545, 24.703975408517493, 122.2696629923497, 34.35098937579959, 37.99006225524478, 38.26557578034132, 17.080571907583543, 17.74984365790482, 26.57914721869575, 20.704500238866018, 20.302011916608773, 36.321622918341355, 19.07649303993666, 24.496312766356763, 20.70257424683409, 24.33223915547966, 23.533815992682083, 20.40174081976945, 20.534635777607914, 33.59238533966214, 24.32853834433991, 20.828282238756913 ], "rps": [ 0.5546985879139547, 0.41028201596983876, 0.49550376715719124, 0.4739659830766469, 0.28021263812997177, 0.45532623698413427, 0.39711100969708524, 0.5985134709286796, 0.3633098005054792, 0.4794343427160735, 0.6533109773409893, 0.3615664568270845, 0.33816288745062123, 0.4250082384369448, 0.61718833104144, 0.4422710240333996, 0.412034832466242, 0.6750849938880588, 0.4350987801065845, 0.44816521532351267, 0.3841347028146771, 0.5087917362714028, 0.3499624306644049, 0.41680602082659995 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.43940389525455414, 0.46658159808332234, 0.4078016609722334, 0.5058326556309144, 0.5395139575622566, 0.49558246733465433, 0.4802715225811077, 0.49404333105867937, 0.39146218082661743, 0.427716413607736, 0.5144532326749148, 0.3688788606345833, 0.45641496128233255, 0.4825359164875749, 0.4144568430509284, 0.43646088297845814, 0.42094222250140517, 0.4840252597737128, 0.47195865794782255, 0.4060822454153488, 0.4076181814082607, 0.4985033826792915, 0.4183880428687596, 0.4537770988799093 ], "bias": [ -24.104298742419534, 23.77260309651746, 27.65389249396879, 35.09557707890956, -121.38502301635066, -25.711097384085758, -24.771017053472274, -53.85566531455789, -0.3024589813351222, 20.32301261193488, 58.351582689932556, 11.497953463456659, 22.990972096683468, -39.00672616378551, 51.15476165867081, -24.156733660767223, -1.0973702592324188, 58.383419472675186, 23.98732066106789, 20.774412103095123, -15.852072406173049, -45.47376534951927, 21.143492953844138, 9.343252333913215 ], "mae": [ 38.31704245340489, 32.31132559179728, 34.20084311378985, 38.354114536499075, 121.92472349020316, 46.39581935723237, 44.72317866773093, 56.61510157847045, 24.102513632323546, 36.47391487346026, 58.44775682967488, 27.928372337961076, 27.376637983615648, 44.1229418499333, 51.76496048247933, 33.207463057077355, 30.090342216169, 58.69351914242948, 39.23565766951822, 35.53209392483839, 24.9976751426258, 47.303301152192276, 36.50345327254462, 31.873906643524073 ], "mse": [ 2833.2484407039265, 1690.1724849285288, 1881.76948909696, 1938.1144732207363, 20738.54066189096, 3717.1238842379275, 3759.6219232111675, 5177.718251430596, 958.621651803506, 2145.479593445686, 4243.068961827944, 1435.0801562231177, 1077.8917456712222, 3349.5786096613974, 3724.452209541156, 2047.995318400086, 1442.2891303752388, 5287.828118380842, 2479.829197457475, 2168.293238480771, 1094.2009396929532, 3422.5858237719685, 2098.9287031128742, 1697.2360847163143 ], "var": [ 2448.277467334054, 3072.882364513157, 2393.6569110156433, 2451.846264068184, 2686.8482709040004, 2055.5562783243686, 2765.7533994975406, 2767.9498915080812, 2140.78646319956, 3217.8481044914442, 3261.080187756297, 3051.2499587700927, 2184.3575932296094, 2429.3721603527465, 2619.6362919663306, 2307.3111794972237, 3476.8745672744344, 2905.1603779342513, 2604.873650140091, 2255.1524701744756, 3043.7075283907125, 2091.943535098963, 4544.396521692258, 1999.026482433446 ], "zero": [ 0.1484870118563007, 0.06489185432225275, 0.040630531868683574, 0.06916967819585364, 0.03560915060177462, 0.09928025465337924, 0.08368110771273007, 0.10317952018646769, 0.05492562221957171, 0.047271913967410255, 0.0318236372147469, 0.10782804716910312, 0.07781886252232757, 0.041976230167811095, 0.02045598005212253, 0.0851357902993496, 0.0746723901442197, 0.052180321101538626, 0.05946503051534012, 0.04886995503306589, 0.06165975763437679, 0.04812606917382585, 0.012981428154071968, 0.08466400756237016 ], "dry": [ 0.1602111016349052, 0.0749171607475702, 0.04735476530374771, 0.07699493496417448, 0.03940731510008699, 0.10736347126388465, 0.0903251866880005, 0.11275072480747236, 0.06265720581922522, 0.05245449851940529, 0.0373328060853784, 0.1179497062673385, 0.0875695675386746, 0.04836013426111744, 0.02488870670550834, 0.09431471096581386, 0.08367831824737765, 0.05863366451625749, 0.06833959548419921, 0.055898449006576846, 0.0686207048549189, 0.056095442615300924, 0.017126466043036387, 0.09712388712169998 ], "obs_dry": [ 0.002004652179585805, 0.06871139430943224, 0.050747259447703114, 0.0613803769402938, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.038093721075830686, 0.05804151922046919, 0.04408357028463322, 0.011326352604367502, 0.06403114542630457, 0.0013347557965737986, 0.04125558222991446, 0.0033520117876989935, 0.0013233966984049308, 0.05008428020674124, 0.062047683137250606, 0.014670693446181717, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05804133080489757, 0.06674395953335785 ], "amount_area_share": [ 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0 ], "probability_area_share": [ 0.9953188407437409, 0.9979990357629747, 0.9973301103992878, 0.9973301103992878, 0.9953188407437409, 0.9953188407437409, 0.9953188407437409, 0.9953188407437409, 0.9973278636170447, 0.9979990357629747, 0.9966589382533578, 0.9953188407437409, 0.9979990357629747, 0.9953188407437409, 0.9953188407437409, 0.9953188407437409, 0.9953188407437409, 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