{ "created_utc": "2026-10-11T10:43:01.283642+00:00", "config": "config/bias_correction/sep_ondj.json", "config_contents": { "schema_version": 1, "name": "sep_ondj", "description": "Rainfall-amount bias-correction benchmark: September-initialized ECMWF SEAS5, ONDJ season and its calendar months, every 0.25 deg cell of Ethiopia (docs/47).", "cycle": "config/cycles/sep_2026_ondj.json", "project_config": "config/ondj/project.json", "targets": [ "Oct", "Nov", "Dec", "Jan", "ONDJ" ], "training_years": [ 1993, 2016 ], "test_years": [ 2017, 2024 ], "all_years": [ 1993, 2024 ], "forecast_year": 2026, "cells": { "path": "data/masks/ethiopia_common.nc", "variable": "region_mask" }, "regions": { "ethiopia": { "label": "All Ethiopia", "path": "data/masks/ethiopia_common.nc", "variable": "region_mask" }, "ondj_domain": { "label": "ONDJ R3 (Deyr) domain", "path": "data/masks/init09_ONDJ_regime_domain.nc", "variable": "season_domain" } }, "primary_region": "ethiopia", "reference_method": "mvs", "smoothing_alpha": 0.5, "pit_bins": 10, "methods": { "raw": {}, "ls": { "min_model_mean": 0.1 }, "mvs": { "ratio_bounds": [ 0.5, 2.0 ], "min_model_sd": 1.0 }, "vs": { "ratio_bounds": null, "min_model_sd": 0.1 }, "sqrt_mvs": { "ratio_bounds": [ 0.5, 2.0 ], "min_model_sd": 0.1, "space": "sqrt" }, "pt": { "b_bounds": [ 0.1, 3.0 ] }, "dc": { "ratio_bounds": [ 0.2, 5.0 ], "min_model_mean": 0.1 }, "loci": { "wet_threshold": 1.0 }, "eqm": { "extrapolation": "constant_ratio" }, "gqm": { "wet_threshold": 1.0 }, "dqm": { "extrapolation": "constant_ratio", "ratio_bounds": [ 0.2, 5.0 ], "min_model_mean": 0.1 }, "qdm": { "max_ratio": 5.0, "wet_threshold": 1.0 }, "sdm": { "wet_threshold": 1.0 }, "cdft": { "min_model_mean": 0.1 } }, "example_cell_quantiles": [ 0.1, 0.5, 0.9 ], "output_root": "outputs/bias_correction_benchmark/sep_ondj" }, "protocol": "Benchmark rainfall-amount bias-correction methods member by member, for every grid cell and target (docs/47).\n\nRead-only experiment: never touches the operational forecasts. Configured by config/bias_correction/.json.\n\nDesigns (one score per year: area-weighted over a region; years weighted equally):\n training : leave-one-year-out within 1993-2016; the target year never enters a fit (clean, gated)\n operational : fit on 1993-2016, scored on 2017-2024 (exploratory; these years were seen before)\n full : leave-one-year-out within 1993-2024, for per-cell maps and distribution checks (descriptive)\n forecast : fit on 1993-2024, corrected 2026 members of every method (member-by-member comparison)\nScores: fair ensemble CRPS (mm) and CRPSS against the CHIRPS training climatology; ensemble-mean bias, MAE,\nRMSE and correlation; spread-error ratio; rank (PIT) histograms; tercile RPS/RPSS of alpha-smoothed member\ncounts (no climatology blend); distribution of the pooled corrected members against CHIRPS (mean, standard\ndeviation, 10/50/90th percentiles and zero fraction).\nGate: each method against the reference (operational MVS), the docs/36 rule: CRPS (amounts) and RPS\n(probabilities) per year, one-sided sign-flip p, Holm across the targets, no harm in 2017-2024.", "gate_rule": "Adoption rule, fixed in docs/36 before the gated comparisons were run.\n\n Adopt the candidate for a target only if, on clean nested 1993-2016 scores,\n it improves the mean with Holm-adjusted one-sided p < ALPHA across the five\n targets, AND on 2017-2025 its mean score is not worse than the reference.", "methods": { "raw": { "label": "Raw ECMWF (no correction)", "family": "baseline", "definition": "x' = x (the uncorrected model; baseline, not a candidate)", "references": [ "Johnson et al. 2019" ], "member_wise": true, "uses_forecast_distribution": false, "parameters": {} }, "ls": { "label": "Linear Scaling", "family": "scaling", "definition": "x' = x * mu_obs / mu_model (multiplicative mean correction)", "references": [ "Lenderink et al. 2007", "Teutschbein & Seibert 2012" ], "member_wise": true, "uses_forecast_distribution": false, "parameters": { "min_model_mean": 0.1 } }, "mvs": { "label": "Mean-Variance Scaling (operational)", "family": "scaling", "definition": "x' = max(0, mu_obs + r (x - mu_model)), r = clip(sd_obs/sd_model, 0.5, 2); r = 1 if sd_model < 1 mm", "references": [ "Torralba et al. 2017", "Manzanas et al. 2019" ], "member_wise": true, "uses_forecast_distribution": false, "parameters": { "ratio_bounds": [ 0.5, 2.0 ], "min_model_sd": 1.0 } }, "vs": { "label": "Variance Scaling (unbounded)", "family": "scaling", "definition": "Same algebra as MVS without the project's ratio limits: r = sd_obs/sd_model", "references": [ "Teutschbein & Seibert 2012" ], "member_wise": true, "uses_forecast_distribution": false, "parameters": { "ratio_bounds": null, "min_model_sd": 0.1 } }, "sqrt_mvs": { "label": "Square-root-space Mean-Variance Scaling", "family": "scaling", "definition": "MVS applied to sqrt(x), clipped at 0 and squared back (docs/36)", "references": [ "Manzanas et al. 2019" ], "member_wise": true, "uses_forecast_distribution": false, "parameters": { "ratio_bounds": [ 0.5, 2.0 ], "min_model_sd": 0.1, "space": "sqrt" } }, "pt": { "label": "Power Transformation", "family": "scaling", "definition": "x' = a x^b, b matches the coefficient of variation, a the mean", "references": [ "Leander & Buishand 2007", "Teutschbein & Seibert 2012" ], "member_wise": true, "uses_forecast_distribution": false, "parameters": { "b_bounds": [ 0.1, 3.0 ] } }, "dc": { "label": "Delta Change", "family": "change-preserving", "definition": "Training-year CHIRPS totals times (forecast ensemble mean / model climatological mean)", "references": [ "Hay et al. 2000", "Teutschbein & Seibert 2012" ], "member_wise": false, "uses_forecast_distribution": true, "parameters": { "ratio_bounds": [ 0.2, 5.0 ], "min_model_mean": 0.1 } }, "loci": { "label": "Local Intensity Scaling", "family": "scaling", "definition": "Model wet threshold with the observed wet frequency, then intensity scaling above it", "references": [ "Schmidli et al. 2006" ], "member_wise": true, "uses_forecast_distribution": false, "parameters": { "wet_threshold": 1.0 } }, "eqm": { "label": "Empirical Quantile Mapping", "family": "quantile mapping", "definition": "x' = Q_obs(F_model(x)), constant-ratio extrapolation", "references": [ "Boe et al. 2007", "Themessl et al. 2011", "Gudmundsson et al. 2012" ], "member_wise": true, "uses_forecast_distribution": false, "parameters": { "extrapolation": "constant_ratio" } }, "gqm": { "label": "Gamma Quantile Mapping", "family": "quantile mapping", "definition": "x' = G_obs^-1(G_model(x)), mixed dry mass + gamma, weighted maximum likelihood", "references": [ "Piani et al. 2010" ], "member_wise": true, "uses_forecast_distribution": false, "parameters": { "wet_threshold": 1.0 } }, "dqm": { "label": "Detrended Quantile Mapping", "family": "change-preserving", "definition": "EQM of x / a, times a, with a = forecast ensemble mean / model mean", "references": [ "Cannon et al. 2015" ], "member_wise": true, "uses_forecast_distribution": true, "parameters": { "extrapolation": "constant_ratio", "ratio_bounds": [ 0.2, 5.0 ], "min_model_mean": 0.1 } }, "qdm": { "label": "Quantile Delta Mapping", "family": "change-preserving", "definition": "x' = Q_obs(tau) * x / Q_model(tau), tau = rank of x in the forecast ensemble", "references": [ "Cannon et al. 2015" ], "member_wise": true, "uses_forecast_distribution": true, "parameters": { "max_ratio": 5.0, "wet_threshold": 1.0 } }, "sdm": { "label": "Scaled Distribution Mapping", "family": "change-preserving", "definition": "Gamma fits to observations, model climatology and forecast ensemble; scaled relative change and rain frequency", "references": [ "Switanek et al. 2017" ], "member_wise": true, "uses_forecast_distribution": true, "parameters": { "wet_threshold": 1.0 } }, "cdft": { "label": "CDF-transform", "family": "change-preserving", "definition": "F_obs,f = F_obs(F_model^-1(F_forecast)); x' = F_obs,f^-1(F_forecast(x)); model first scaled to the observed mean", "references": [ "Michelangeli et al. 2009", "Vrac et al. 2012" ], "member_wise": true, "uses_forecast_distribution": true, "parameters": { "min_model_mean": 0.1 } } }, "targets": { "Oct": { "tag": "init09_Oct", "cells": 1484, "methods": { "raw": { "training": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 29.197604229423206, 24.323045963858657, 30.413624064526154, 30.004382043874607, 100.85471617444219, 31.793577777482554, 36.428907318022645, 49.035447933708994, 24.98418996978875, 31.756874833883177, 40.723579068851464, 23.87057578395599, 23.501434704912405, 41.01262133052104, 37.033144248911654, 33.49100554196277, 24.67667624748489, 42.33641920852203, 32.66606693283249, 36.14299673611076, 25.38498557201276, 40.639810911042545, 33.73488612728524, 21.043090800139623 ], "crps_clim": [ 22.51064113159216, 21.34178182693399, 17.109998394156545, 24.703975408517493, 122.2696629923497, 34.35098937579959, 37.99006225524478, 38.26557578034132, 17.080571907583543, 17.74984365790482, 26.57914721869575, 20.704500238866018, 20.302011916608773, 36.321622918341355, 19.07649303993666, 24.496312766356763, 20.70257424683409, 24.33223915547966, 23.533815992682083, 20.40174081976945, 20.534635777607914, 33.59238533966214, 24.32853834433991, 20.828282238756913 ], "rps": [ 0.5097521718085509, 0.52635117369513, 0.6185767599393275, 0.6444200778511465, 0.28762289750210746, 0.38502108498910537, 0.37893193903546585, 0.5849439778326119, 0.46500625356232267, 0.6528861206279444, 0.769984981306672, 0.41352775994262986, 0.5030290227279658, 0.47691433236866887, 0.6735582451022085, 0.5313702672578321, 0.4295982233285111, 0.7453296348497013, 0.6001176045578692, 0.6355222192733201, 0.4009002910313957, 0.5068096791938632, 0.5004740789726699, 0.43993682057769967 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.43940389525455414, 0.46658159808332234, 0.4078016609722334, 0.5058326556309144, 0.5395139575622566, 0.49558246733465433, 0.4802715225811077, 0.49404333105867937, 0.39146218082661743, 0.427716413607736, 0.5144532326749148, 0.3688788606345833, 0.45641496128233255, 0.4825359164875749, 0.4144568430509284, 0.43646088297845814, 0.42094222250140517, 0.4840252597737128, 0.47195865794782255, 0.4060822454153488, 0.4076181814082607, 0.4985033826792915, 0.4183880428687596, 0.4537770988799093 ], "bias": [ -16.512607304207517, 23.236888053672875, 30.952853670067288, 40.4650004118433, -115.25443988058313, -16.897294922770953, -17.467152738957925, -44.93408620757145, 5.367973934999696, 21.767575393012322, 59.56667154094472, 14.959351457101526, 29.45700498002893, -35.07883640156357, 51.10230086789692, -17.165205928918425, -0.3119469891967177, 60.24488851576018, 27.141102202112275, 22.18194798609705, -10.389519330243239, -37.93719622697835, 14.627116259702237, 15.390087565263094 ], "mae": [ 38.6530912616546, 37.26773111234299, 43.887155173308386, 46.198726028516326, 120.80658205916455, 43.268529283348094, 49.87973781298854, 61.35925968572308, 36.152534892329584, 48.54031969710913, 60.667833803302734, 34.53201214698672, 36.28937563731935, 53.21299106018731, 52.99800557221298, 44.57637810753911, 34.35749049603382, 62.06096479163677, 48.26892517607435, 50.02512243654447, 34.982313678132, 52.19484975397728, 49.31013508256115, 31.930193919835197 ], "mse": [ 2894.3970401041265, 2256.785575008601, 3587.168575687687, 3287.825305475221, 22670.345816223235, 3674.2010767163456, 4555.257365663158, 6380.943568006586, 2329.51497201238, 3725.6092074638964, 5409.898186951264, 2433.0353630679315, 2281.34452403198, 4686.281786963513, 4838.090050124645, 3762.606628506497, 2134.6270470512773, 6043.49680774741, 3829.912203339797, 4262.053414971749, 2200.8610961240965, 4501.870367407831, 3895.2841357118523, 1546.0590623515664 ], "var": [ 1600.4388452106464, 1709.8104066407682, 1514.311027178401, 1536.017844893886, 2325.418079416858, 1388.3820913315853, 1932.0307655074005, 1842.7205920877796, 1382.1309417162702, 2026.2976163529565, 2005.8420075623949, 1757.2222588846018, 1267.1449966413757, 1462.7276194045994, 1497.719188268946, 1438.3678237640531, 1842.599670436332, 1902.9039242430001, 1611.4601545914309, 1383.5053247337476, 1874.0058707329297, 1378.7901039087274, 2243.993123535389, 1247.7032654408606 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00042937246861169943, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004263336225917233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00015937118772514544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008557060912034227, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 35.210402646814856, "crpss": -0.22629601736704186, "rps": 0.5283577340556134, "rpss": -0.16520525622497617, "mean_bias_mm": 4.354686537812964, "mean_mae_mm": 48.80917744453452, "mean_rmse_mm": 66.82921927592521, "spread_error_ratio": 0.6121914378408927, "zero_fraction": 7.794930708883295e-05, "correlation": 0.23450627009569677, "pit_histogram": [ 0.2625, 0.0993, 0.07171, 0.0615, 0.05953, 0.05665, 0.0666, 0.07696, 0.08462, 0.16062 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.4462365753324129 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 24.82345742732975, 21.065642903435787, 18.07843222488175, 20.01205749677827, 142.738969720092, 26.26441194268268, 21.83669660507601, 71.0342903187581, 28.447444357938323, 24.225455946832458, 30.613711986702384, 22.15300262784885, 21.078414113474466, 62.858985042828316, 23.014081844060357, 45.89932501218191, 19.725469951686694, 28.10064007573469, 26.5923521626448, 33.02188096823723, 24.54343079041907, 48.120913370254144, 35.826247963726, 25.320545888747994 ], "crps_clim": [ 20.16546441774922, 22.76670826790671, 16.94469548167337, 31.09433614253317, 155.68767899429207, 31.182604674802132, 20.063728628019742, 47.67425501377674, 21.053644879747303, 19.513270179453034, 33.170969511215155, 22.839448378093994, 28.243116177805117, 53.561271942272995, 21.37134058167887, 35.54201609868039, 17.47907876438195, 31.583296905530318, 26.57160898637116, 24.874887655242915, 18.60790218298319, 31.38851277619512, 38.48344091464168, 29.783372053088755 ], "rps": [ 0.4673061166075706, 0.3480524567426736, 0.3380536396343167, 0.30219299236097213, 0.38547622209252147, 0.3519412170890628, 0.447467463515054, 0.8324215607509794, 0.5031509563546349, 0.4422654087082457, 0.4936510023517028, 0.38110794685061244, 0.3450629696035854, 0.6409544390086391, 0.4852401102650847, 0.646177539363051, 0.35702357308768407, 0.4367371079871908, 0.3698935934701433, 0.4865254162200915, 0.40424605703265654, 0.7116912246715418, 0.3847754676406446, 0.4122407079152429 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4283784846339526, 0.42670630481309463, 0.3446648823501038, 0.5130077295664848, 0.5410158900803291, 0.48132609963069506, 0.42143417253271964, 0.499616375801894, 0.4182216041304011, 0.40244267787358307, 0.5388940330394029, 0.3853584884109886, 0.5182825813030848, 0.5208909812511145, 0.44508072206563115, 0.4785608793092128, 0.35798102791050807, 0.4969649369586475, 0.42935647251841336, 0.3854220274094116, 0.34929100974978367, 0.4752706362743161, 0.48976956652503323, 0.5267262488889791 ], "bias": [ -8.381182431228293, -0.5752439390238223, -4.899012058516624, 23.79670759599218, -162.47223217341522, 7.230061975247615, 3.306349285632329, -80.78032077346596, -20.41250143997215, -26.592612955922277, 44.449067379175, 5.279540374991987, 27.51635234944489, -77.35888113321742, 33.15926362826731, -57.65684845083206, -3.1026027782490866, 38.211377872143515, -15.597895954669157, -21.21079730126556, -19.705462838960795, -56.31162563382426, -25.300047919793602, 28.168345158986533 ], "mae": [ 34.94150369645599, 30.7029640756994, 25.0405086495372, 32.87105180199701, 162.59425854626255, 37.0883107368717, 32.13246930965324, 83.89216412398946, 37.25933094690025, 32.066429300318056, 47.21524497119221, 31.942117428433274, 34.87403356140073, 77.58365544091878, 37.44882624260588, 59.10316836016531, 28.617000381375224, 42.07501794766115, 36.184277565862295, 43.509264224188826, 33.30907810902327, 60.052370699297136, 47.764752413522025, 38.160250623806945 ], "mse": [ 2078.4672706355027, 1521.1034725345673, 1167.662698769321, 1482.1559980078528, 35374.64207220583, 2522.898252962267, 1640.6385412593454, 10429.909396950236, 2525.830516668985, 1781.6890395006992, 2767.629714243172, 1811.1354193378297, 1647.2674777071284, 7969.4573822929615, 1868.7567432081885, 5513.680845056284, 1354.8574777332192, 2701.620334614881, 2298.0563711389223, 3451.5396997882835, 1852.4868233898128, 5402.005477855843, 4157.4811019899735, 1784.8826862386827 ], "var": [ 985.700727127687, 1899.2823019296204, 1220.4677097123467, 1258.1093577492554, 1543.8738865831372, 887.0816381117962, 1290.5717133972735, 1391.6375350829785, 943.7156139504854, 903.4404624953924, 1565.772756054173, 1757.9774744332344, 1438.720351272015, 1158.040361956734, 1546.0633107777624, 1639.3472510676158, 1799.9014544732215, 1100.5302377890114, 1153.5479308485258, 1285.9958054856518, 1589.4448492341567, 955.1885115081581, 2499.9216670602555, 1018.4216450595349 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 35.224827530931336, "crpss": -0.05721178367549751, "rps": 0.45723563288849595, "rpss": -0.009102934841578092, "mean_bias_mm": -15.385008423436455, "mean_mae_mm": 46.93450204821408, "mean_rmse_mm": 66.1771155102256, "spread_error_ratio": 0.5589078452040929, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.4214043898890044, "pit_histogram": [ 0.17586, 0.08131, 0.06227, 0.05974, 0.06759, 0.06403, 0.06938, 0.08034, 0.09889, 0.24058 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.43287428407073825 } }, "operational": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 30.248107972557587, 19.244833167971223, 59.46093296253761, 21.637885554912145, 27.852016212720585, 24.26825822910673, 45.27123819344576, 41.58354701972171 ], "crps_clim": [ 20.32105586449988, 16.40570046524331, 65.52791755840862, 17.64632053938275, 24.293868622000836, 16.66802739812226, 40.184015667195084, 32.98246918464377 ], "rps": [ 0.568351625628317, 0.3826963680342657, 0.4189267326005656, 0.38972831656593954, 0.4729136335689687, 0.37636143904660707, 0.4834025603770989, 0.5592973243281981 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4122606865060767, 0.37346476193268074, 0.5449498617316163, 0.36687869557844566, 0.47023810687668466, 0.3514902720415714, 0.4617152805402287, 0.46890906592470627 ], "bias": [ -10.288435204203644, 2.9047169576945397, -70.14495812400209, 4.21180607927346, 14.80254782600964, 16.421405809264485, -44.34146188409145, -43.91923789938757 ], "mae": [ 41.58175303689492, 26.9439744574569, 76.53122799352434, 30.84480786417266, 39.20927783437153, 37.21050430296323, 58.65788381735199, 53.744152807004305 ], "mse": [ 2975.7825988859718, 1281.8123706458816, 8936.623753551838, 2145.742087837683, 2659.6026814385614, 2407.7892951637878, 6139.176821610944, 4815.705803013418 ], "var": [ 1490.8712560996316, 1652.6207150134692, 2585.3485298732776, 1486.0558169762576, 1333.5938614695424, 2167.3500910955736, 1708.7499089422884, 1323.6846052894703 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00021047670029985266, 0.0, 0.0, 7.812313123781639e-05 ] }, "crps": 33.695852414121674, "crpss": -0.15185035625548382, "rps": 0.45645975001874506, "rpss": -0.05848600693959716, "mean_bias_mm": -16.29420205493033, "mean_mae_mm": 45.59044776421749, "mean_rmse_mm": 62.61213481840809, "spread_error_ratio": 0.6620954397777958, "zero_fraction": 3.6074978942208635e-05, "correlation": 0.2501060642536288, "pit_histogram": [ 0.10182, 0.07905, 0.0702, 0.06969, 0.07287, 0.07246, 0.07768, 0.09536, 0.1157, 0.24517 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.32537648320025114 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 36.05262312866887, 17.82990494313918, 81.72584996271424, 26.731068242293354, 21.125531313391566, 19.508536538364346, 67.46098497899045, 31.546780140520426 ], "crps_clim": [ 24.012970318608165, 17.14717700571395, 95.49608165309667, 24.212333377463093, 25.06890034808142, 15.600720521826346, 60.26104362729821, 20.04862260959093 ], "rps": [ 0.6205841134948425, 0.3603852310228325, 0.36988256645105744, 0.44024857788865057, 0.4300539706187254, 0.38154875707544894, 0.5730361893981415, 0.5667914536917287 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.41878823842713037, 0.35324432725808413, 0.5497651995010865, 0.41409150307530557, 0.5005547552283075, 0.3283216384408885, 0.5179393125380852, 0.38569803603839053 ], "bias": [ -39.960053708218524, -5.668577838373013, -103.15761500852959, -18.05560586795498, 29.27805479376867, -1.1429372569604266, -82.6378969122535, -31.066150983007418 ], "mae": [ 46.93714023366232, 23.76981291452579, 103.72454165710381, 35.39645213872695, 34.418867585412094, 28.260879602917353, 84.24190806484496, 41.95680809764288 ], "mse": [ 3518.4207326981373, 1051.7903168117646, 14047.731168038188, 2926.031632941131, 1554.8784564471962, 1308.006546641819, 10113.634233408386, 3042.7292809090063 ], "var": [ 1519.1650078635175, 1212.0337848765841, 2937.999988791563, 1194.7037418240418, 1344.514742601574, 1460.135169775523, 1589.631373526803, 1019.0660584854978 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 37.747659906010306, "crpss": -0.07143368248101933, "rps": 0.46781635745517847, "rpss": -0.07903575458321854, "mean_bias_mm": -31.551347847691094, "mean_mae_mm": 49.838301286854524, "mean_rmse_mm": 68.52300924497517, "spread_error_ratio": 0.5717012302201999, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.6901840783353386, "pit_histogram": [ 0.06892, 0.06675, 0.06099, 0.05653, 0.06752, 0.06686, 0.07453, 0.09533, 0.12788, 0.31468 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.48511863970483793 } }, "full": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 29.197604229423206, 24.323045963858657, 30.413624064526154, 30.004382043874607, 100.85471617444219, 31.793577777482554, 36.428907318022645, 49.035447933708994, 24.98418996978875, 31.756874833883177, 40.723579068851464, 23.87057578395599, 23.501434704912405, 41.01262133052104, 37.033144248911654, 33.49100554196277, 24.67667624748489, 42.33641920852203, 32.66606693283249, 36.14299673611076, 25.38498557201276, 40.639810911042545, 33.73488612728524, 21.043090800139623, 30.248107972557587, 19.244833167971223, 59.46093296253761, 21.637885554912145, 27.852016212720585, 24.26825822910673, 45.27123819344576, 41.58354701972171 ], "crps_clim": [ 21.565188759301577, 23.38563063557986, 19.097928412475547, 27.65831750898805, 115.86467554318806, 32.608713982744845, 35.74981363535668, 35.27522856142174, 17.037873658289875, 19.249766823627166, 29.95460921092147, 21.757280334006133, 22.589855526865747, 32.8860898565903, 21.287962454192346, 23.34276551652251, 20.5096382411715, 27.15997168831795, 25.49780817078038, 22.130467654701782, 19.335150240563912, 30.517713481749208, 23.826246347839884, 21.865464318236576, 19.893432351136823, 17.03329139891581, 64.14883327049633, 18.974050124817815, 25.33605920687928, 16.45512833366636, 38.480365999726736, 31.353009520945946 ], "rps": [ 0.5158904772671352, 0.5009345851271296, 0.6222279274399527, 0.6074925342595103, 0.3375915363843556, 0.4055630538421199, 0.41799173574293597, 0.6375063025019853, 0.49445279264480085, 0.6537558029518371, 0.7485568082999552, 0.4292100077775878, 0.5177648723390087, 0.5085709701399025, 0.706275589416808, 0.5575639227739934, 0.4252605921030821, 0.730646791203219, 0.5827465778535653, 0.6371021356531821, 0.42644872947370704, 0.5672654950239188, 0.5629716445073962, 0.43458120901430136, 0.5943948286370808, 0.38070687495241173, 0.44843538560752905, 0.4054012654183926, 0.4729659435216866, 0.3888497360203466, 0.5094706050885636, 0.5998084438656756 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4235467576215105, 0.47608889223006146, 0.42116084841535095, 0.52922569582888, 0.5521940842175864, 0.48422399901825147, 0.4817361166669598, 0.48212565828300324, 0.39092541948658205, 0.43695066648742936, 0.5455763971634705, 0.37045590341108353, 0.4938985727810239, 0.45690686490267524, 0.44941552111033356, 0.42409929339583347, 0.4060824902077587, 0.5026173106347752, 0.49052948788469664, 0.41131287431461633, 0.38663843087009825, 0.4959596204449516, 0.4216770610806586, 0.46451823268332443, 0.4095379456154036, 0.3675043388775151, 0.5502738168335921, 0.3945497358652498, 0.47350515274771016, 0.3484831583622997, 0.46150350689172287, 0.4645838963389065 ], "bias": [ -16.512607304207517, 23.236888053672875, 30.952853670067288, 40.4650004118433, -115.25443988058313, -16.897294922770953, -17.467152738957925, -44.93408620757145, 5.367973934999696, 21.767575393012322, 59.56667154094472, 14.959351457101526, 29.45700498002893, -35.07883640156357, 51.10230086789692, -17.165205928918425, -0.3119469891967177, 60.24488851576018, 27.141102202112275, 22.18194798609705, -10.389519330243239, -37.93719622697835, 14.627116259702237, 15.390087565263094, -10.288435204203644, 2.9047169576945397, -70.14495812400209, 4.21180607927346, 14.80254782600964, 16.421405809264485, -44.34146188409145, -43.91923789938757 ], "mae": [ 38.6530912616546, 37.26773111234299, 43.887155173308386, 46.198726028516326, 120.80658205916455, 43.268529283348094, 49.87973781298854, 61.35925968572308, 36.152534892329584, 48.54031969710913, 60.667833803302734, 34.53201214698672, 36.28937563731935, 53.21299106018731, 52.99800557221298, 44.57637810753911, 34.35749049603382, 62.06096479163677, 48.26892517607435, 50.02512243654447, 34.982313678132, 52.19484975397728, 49.31013508256115, 31.930193919835197, 41.58175303689492, 26.9439744574569, 76.53122799352434, 30.84480786417266, 39.20927783437153, 37.21050430296323, 58.65788381735199, 53.744152807004305 ], "mse": [ 2894.3970401041265, 2256.785575008601, 3587.168575687687, 3287.825305475221, 22670.345816223235, 3674.2010767163456, 4555.257365663158, 6380.943568006586, 2329.51497201238, 3725.6092074638964, 5409.898186951264, 2433.0353630679315, 2281.34452403198, 4686.281786963513, 4838.090050124645, 3762.606628506497, 2134.6270470512773, 6043.49680774741, 3829.912203339797, 4262.053414971749, 2200.8610961240965, 4501.870367407831, 3895.2841357118523, 1546.0590623515664, 2975.7825988859718, 1281.8123706458816, 8936.623753551838, 2145.742087837683, 2659.6026814385614, 2407.7892951637878, 6139.176821610944, 4815.705803013418 ], "var": [ 1600.4388452106464, 1709.8104066407682, 1514.311027178401, 1536.017844893886, 2325.418079416858, 1388.3820913315853, 1932.0307655074005, 1842.7205920877796, 1382.1309417162702, 2026.2976163529565, 2005.8420075623949, 1757.2222588846018, 1267.1449966413757, 1462.7276194045994, 1497.719188268946, 1438.3678237640531, 1842.599670436332, 1902.9039242430001, 1611.4601545914309, 1383.5053247337476, 1874.0058707329297, 1378.7901039087274, 2243.993123535389, 1247.7032654408606, 1490.8712560996316, 1652.6207150134692, 2585.3485298732776, 1486.0558169762576, 1333.5938614695424, 2167.3500910955736, 1708.7499089422884, 1323.6846052894703 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00042937246861169943, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004263336225917233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00015937118772514544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008557060912034227, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00021047670029985266, 0.0, 0.0, 7.812313123781639e-05 ] }, "crps": 34.83176508864156, "crpss": -0.20913671844460757, "rps": 0.5258876617766586, "rpss": -0.16316206759589402, "mean_bias_mm": -0.8075356103728595, "mean_mae_mm": 48.00449502445526, "mean_rmse_mm": 65.80029079268493, "spread_error_ratio": 0.6238374003544014, "zero_fraction": 6.748072505217688e-05, "correlation": 0.22157599468916941, "pit_histogram": [ 0.22233, 0.09424, 0.07133, 0.06355, 0.06287, 0.06061, 0.06937, 0.08156, 0.09239, 0.18176 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.40817208826473594 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 24.82345742732975, 21.065642903435787, 18.07843222488175, 20.01205749677827, 142.738969720092, 26.26441194268268, 21.83669660507601, 71.0342903187581, 28.447444357938323, 24.225455946832458, 30.613711986702384, 22.15300262784885, 21.078414113474466, 62.858985042828316, 23.014081844060357, 45.89932501218191, 19.725469951686694, 28.10064007573469, 26.5923521626448, 33.02188096823723, 24.54343079041907, 48.120913370254144, 35.826247963726, 25.320545888747994, 36.05262312866887, 17.82990494313918, 81.72584996271424, 26.731068242293354, 21.125531313391566, 19.508536538364346, 67.46098497899045, 31.546780140520426 ], "crps_clim": [ 20.62823078391462, 22.736075489400832, 17.20303065300768, 33.38592024446952, 148.69890061775828, 32.54163468771625, 20.813924730768786, 45.34936829224909, 21.110172436165435, 18.987977073987647, 35.64746457072699, 24.18698188499711, 30.543634191772295, 49.7010744586202, 22.788748659461, 33.02631501609522, 18.025620044910095, 33.698138045350596, 26.182976675526973, 24.697762649323387, 18.323363286191857, 30.274060611645748, 36.95358378488871, 31.968592033538773, 23.529333965483502, 18.554147550975507, 95.7655520497254, 24.80422585413712, 28.59879576238074, 16.421943505646766, 59.22616150944826, 19.837161306589184 ], "rps": [ 0.4627258207699521, 0.36162462787533, 0.346396782920448, 0.2835925254298227, 0.4260673533048198, 0.33024945030871894, 0.4492926105334365, 0.8723906488221078, 0.5127549994434191, 0.4521931233735268, 0.465424732332325, 0.39709777118883, 0.32417115999983187, 0.6676513710260583, 0.4833528181501143, 0.6957722696078531, 0.34948598457043367, 0.4167048742120239, 0.3955321957913856, 0.5075372985805988, 0.4237462671839204, 0.759225407692036, 0.40261130639601295, 0.3800660615835904, 0.6414773672351753, 0.3477478138346231, 0.3778733722922544, 0.4540192754034253, 0.382855745162016, 0.38835790474695836, 0.5795004005617279, 0.5834976646557616 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4353624306832978, 0.4191800777990544, 0.33092642730556393, 0.5345989952281157, 0.5549256946518838, 0.4853155529512196, 0.4290652521208975, 0.49985640326148617, 0.40930380959521595, 0.37730746282751154, 0.5561589821998123, 0.3968450353921786, 0.5352098508957999, 0.5197317160936026, 0.4622154279575823, 0.47965872542692495, 0.3452359656196985, 0.510985845909633, 0.4364472915440719, 0.37533126250969556, 0.33575420241270676, 0.47704841054116015, 0.48221255024125415, 0.5432080506356914, 0.4191937836801347, 0.36236938480584985, 0.5586414801407072, 0.4345261685934756, 0.5204520422939962, 0.3377365051099261, 0.5222952003256466, 0.37908107264058183 ], "bias": [ -8.381182431228293, -0.5752439390238223, -4.899012058516624, 23.79670759599218, -162.47223217341522, 7.230061975247615, 3.306349285632329, -80.78032077346596, -20.41250143997215, -26.592612955922277, 44.449067379175, 5.279540374991987, 27.51635234944489, -77.35888113321742, 33.15926362826731, -57.65684845083206, -3.1026027782490866, 38.211377872143515, -15.597895954669157, -21.21079730126556, -19.705462838960795, -56.31162563382426, -25.300047919793602, 28.168345158986533, -39.960053708218524, -5.668577838373013, -103.15761500852959, -18.05560586795498, 29.27805479376867, -1.1429372569604266, -82.6378969122535, -31.066150983007418 ], "mae": [ 34.94150369645599, 30.7029640756994, 25.0405086495372, 32.87105180199701, 162.59425854626255, 37.0883107368717, 32.13246930965324, 83.89216412398946, 37.25933094690025, 32.066429300318056, 47.21524497119221, 31.942117428433274, 34.87403356140073, 77.58365544091878, 37.44882624260588, 59.10316836016531, 28.617000381375224, 42.07501794766115, 36.184277565862295, 43.509264224188826, 33.30907810902327, 60.052370699297136, 47.764752413522025, 38.160250623806945, 46.93714023366232, 23.76981291452579, 103.72454165710381, 35.39645213872695, 34.418867585412094, 28.260879602917353, 84.24190806484496, 41.95680809764288 ], "mse": [ 2078.4672706355027, 1521.1034725345673, 1167.662698769321, 1482.1559980078528, 35374.64207220583, 2522.898252962267, 1640.6385412593454, 10429.909396950236, 2525.830516668985, 1781.6890395006992, 2767.629714243172, 1811.1354193378297, 1647.2674777071284, 7969.4573822929615, 1868.7567432081885, 5513.680845056284, 1354.8574777332192, 2701.620334614881, 2298.0563711389223, 3451.5396997882835, 1852.4868233898128, 5402.005477855843, 4157.4811019899735, 1784.8826862386827, 3518.4207326981373, 1051.7903168117646, 14047.731168038188, 2926.031632941131, 1554.8784564471962, 1308.006546641819, 10113.634233408386, 3042.7292809090063 ], "var": [ 985.700727127687, 1899.2823019296204, 1220.4677097123467, 1258.1093577492554, 1543.8738865831372, 887.0816381117962, 1290.5717133972735, 1391.6375350829785, 943.7156139504854, 903.4404624953924, 1565.772756054173, 1757.9774744332344, 1438.720351272015, 1158.040361956734, 1546.0633107777624, 1639.3472510676158, 1799.9014544732215, 1100.5302377890114, 1153.5479308485258, 1285.9958054856518, 1589.4448492341567, 955.1885115081581, 2499.9216670602555, 1018.4216450595349, 1519.1650078635175, 1212.0337848765841, 2937.999988791563, 1194.7037418240418, 1344.514742601574, 1460.135169775523, 1589.631373526803, 1019.0660584854978 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 35.855535624701076, "crpss": -0.05826013109624206, "rps": 0.4662811564058918, "rpss": -0.03143994546065243, "mean_bias_mm": -19.426593279500114, "mean_mae_mm": 47.660451857874186, "mean_rmse_mm": 66.77131616148543, "spread_error_ratio": 0.562304434845165, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.4791919832353627, "pit_histogram": [ 0.14912, 0.07767, 0.06195, 0.05894, 0.06757, 0.06474, 0.07067, 0.08409, 0.10614, 0.2591 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.42873425303365986 } }, "distribution_full": { "ethiopia": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9755332411576968, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.2983070572047546 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 0.7887963499435992, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.3554068413884528 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 1.270834393248953, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.6966522189878912 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0525187678123267, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.36784866357918694 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9198687958878383, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.2894098019316487 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": -0.004027333498847804 } }, "ondj_domain": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 0.8354133803828624, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.274081782068633 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 0.6244148185062525, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.4811714018779588 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 1.1506440104291238, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.4810515479036949 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9007559396836514, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.2878123700689878 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 0.7575865007504797, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.30908045983771365 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": 0.0 } } } }, "ls": { "training": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 26.44571104873688, 20.457987800559707, 21.2198118836531, 24.005970257526194, 104.77339554683817, 35.07649407515398, 35.04956078293874, 43.312191004729286, 15.76850001287489, 21.420802458558743, 35.69765193215713, 17.992111994317607, 17.155053601835288, 34.54207262888813, 31.716352082791406, 22.992045470222184, 19.55027507726956, 37.392033973725795, 24.9462504735257, 23.573891510980626, 19.48241067001793, 35.45214413171299, 20.704120420605268, 21.644704980278608 ], "crps_clim": [ 22.51064113159216, 21.34178182693399, 17.109998394156545, 24.703975408517493, 122.2696629923497, 34.35098937579959, 37.99006225524478, 38.26557578034132, 17.080571907583543, 17.74984365790482, 26.57914721869575, 20.704500238866018, 20.302011916608773, 36.321622918341355, 19.07649303993666, 24.496312766356763, 20.70257424683409, 24.33223915547966, 23.533815992682083, 20.40174081976945, 20.534635777607914, 33.59238533966214, 24.32853834433991, 20.828282238756913 ], "rps": [ 0.48271327539429537, 0.4807842391952376, 0.5181200359545195, 0.5505256134670904, 0.28943871931739024, 0.47219511892860966, 0.3954010442741205, 0.5474927685026759, 0.3727606510411318, 0.5065898787645581, 0.7203249309732515, 0.31115636789684975, 0.4136848532199791, 0.414035936654, 0.6417463374147312, 0.4002694017066549, 0.35806275396433807, 0.7379518435655738, 0.5078970612256034, 0.4515588301318221, 0.34596970089640955, 0.4822746835121299, 0.3551598923111918, 0.4815390640821671 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.43940389525455414, 0.46658159808332234, 0.4078016609722334, 0.5058326556309144, 0.5395139575622566, 0.49558246733465433, 0.4802715225811077, 0.49404333105867937, 0.39146218082661743, 0.427716413607736, 0.5144532326749148, 0.3688788606345833, 0.45641496128233255, 0.4825359164875749, 0.4144568430509284, 0.43646088297845814, 0.42094222250140517, 0.4840252597737128, 0.47195865794782255, 0.4060822454153488, 0.4076181814082607, 0.4985033826792915, 0.4183880428687596, 0.4537770988799093 ], "bias": [ -19.941664526440917, 22.7594580014363, 27.217682875437983, 36.31055599620946, -125.07257088322197, -23.572650006661494, -24.569551651918, -52.1209824992427, -0.3834370618717018, 17.593736390172527, 56.21793337776689, 12.562682628844692, 25.89053868482189, -40.87326839426417, 48.60105854896562, -22.345742508035567, -2.7872131131210507, 56.16886269613651, 23.95201912646086, 19.161677894856528, -15.167070649283932, -44.85133692973468, 12.49536381423589, 12.50044253026467 ], "mae": [ 35.890156973051326, 32.81440203698249, 33.10280624415581, 39.49875170564254, 125.63430988682138, 48.16634844466332, 47.290083040934434, 55.15005070174902, 23.84868622977487, 34.84200667214982, 56.31463845265164, 26.601947711892905, 29.48342020341952, 45.10873451687131, 49.305576421269365, 31.837973320862886, 28.085689047730803, 56.46266207270468, 39.37687839953705, 34.40489510951524, 25.05154804098624, 46.70241623476925, 31.695930440572603, 32.21041275501517 ], "mse": [ 2398.9402129087966, 1694.58218620815, 1750.1159905963268, 2040.3282159921635, 22003.928603768258, 3860.8182206158167, 4095.753750043654, 4902.236431255869, 936.3436221115903, 1948.8176307691351, 3928.502644436973, 1352.9429339735414, 1245.0802487152887, 3495.8010180982774, 3420.6017221509173, 1923.4745992711255, 1267.990745774765, 4657.744139721922, 2471.4966327720863, 2040.01153052256, 1081.6653071317985, 3361.4476344859468, 1659.1328429894565, 1671.3530371895313 ], "var": [ 1528.9615110250857, 1941.5219241585685, 1605.128443836968, 1602.0081131123475, 2049.4208522946083, 1305.6471003200927, 1793.3021128755727, 1753.2886528457616, 1298.1972421641472, 2009.9977769972752, 2116.068469116148, 1910.7439456984835, 1414.416744824307, 1466.8117059918582, 1754.7196939158737, 1526.651350565809, 2010.3929822528366, 1914.6932212259094, 1710.4325910123328, 1565.818966573232, 1925.4041949623202, 1305.4479272764988, 2795.3353453253803, 1274.9083016845984 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00042937246861169943, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004263336225917233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00015937118772514544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008557060912034227, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 29.59881432582908, "crpss": -0.03085751363408984, "rps": 0.4682355417664305, "rpss": -0.03261574356015173, "mean_bias_mm": -0.010561485757763242, "mean_mae_mm": 42.036680194321825, "mean_rmse_mm": 57.448930183505865, "spread_error_ratio": 0.7245212377781305, "zero_fraction": 7.794930708883295e-05, "correlation": 0.06643729427050481, "pit_histogram": [ 0.23093, 0.10079, 0.07359, 0.06558, 0.06332, 0.06626, 0.07179, 0.08038, 0.09033, 0.15703 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.37749557089341323 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 18.84929941524053, 24.29013617068558, 16.187663376029406, 22.66664312959417, 130.6336764680999, 28.211825895625708, 18.241847311013093, 59.517822582857846, 19.616117895183546, 16.544704278553347, 39.30724341611216, 20.41217570768507, 23.511083582796267, 52.71381678580652, 33.20495439300026, 34.05957355761374, 16.1006528568308, 37.644993271217835, 23.647352640788355, 21.303526452175696, 17.262630645509834, 35.63496847733714, 23.7660609266066, 30.81646491609009 ], "crps_clim": [ 20.16546441774922, 22.76670826790671, 16.94469548167337, 31.09433614253317, 155.68767899429207, 31.182604674802132, 20.063728628019742, 47.67425501377674, 21.053644879747303, 19.513270179453034, 33.170969511215155, 22.839448378093994, 28.243116177805117, 53.561271942272995, 21.37134058167887, 35.54201609868039, 17.47907876438195, 31.583296905530318, 26.57160898637116, 24.874887655242915, 18.60790218298319, 31.38851277619512, 38.48344091464168, 29.783372053088755 ], "rps": [ 0.3842127882751512, 0.41233427843928167, 0.3111294285134308, 0.36006274596950155, 0.21012595445781015, 0.3954228703916399, 0.38761945491785393, 0.6595944549588632, 0.3971883087853817, 0.334932906384083, 0.6378166139485311, 0.3404698069246731, 0.3953410469710782, 0.46876100591077685, 0.6614524764240614, 0.4608618271610744, 0.3009284693245511, 0.5872177439591886, 0.3331176144869142, 0.2937547956475623, 0.2977953668000589, 0.519121632968639, 0.201527869568332, 0.5300149282930335 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4283784846339526, 0.42670630481309463, 0.3446648823501038, 0.5130077295664848, 0.5410158900803291, 0.48132609963069506, 0.42143417253271964, 0.499616375801894, 0.4182216041304011, 0.40244267787358307, 0.5388940330394029, 0.3853584884109886, 0.5182825813030848, 0.5208909812511145, 0.44508072206563115, 0.4785608793092128, 0.35798102791050807, 0.4969649369586475, 0.42935647251841336, 0.3854220274094116, 0.34929100974978367, 0.4752706362743161, 0.48976956652503323, 0.5267262488889791 ], "bias": [ 4.754291344258507, 19.87731088828305, 11.835925964967412, 36.98196438809188, -151.4236538235135, 19.72946638888553, 18.759890376314672, -70.45751067342707, -7.380496771440431, -12.135871798290653, 61.30279674892799, 21.694240015783954, 42.01981745715206, -64.092583499257, 53.54443944776966, -45.10277712785646, 14.625642999152051, 55.39237290589662, 0.758041182842386, -4.5431798297908506, -4.273909466920063, -44.134821822777795, -3.3226291748657024, 43.283724463652646 ], "mae": [ 29.36691194014901, 36.33634707431855, 24.677569787791406, 38.477152014658046, 152.44513965411704, 41.69004145467616, 28.993962409292656, 74.57483160337318, 27.88205096343963, 22.413591999601078, 61.30294149715971, 31.19374572789036, 42.13457353857494, 66.74618572501167, 54.71156476320336, 46.02153920341701, 26.20199087595348, 55.851909386817255, 35.019239318651096, 30.199945379141454, 22.243208351678593, 47.37665586140942, 31.62757100254117, 46.47346967167045 ], "mse": [ 1306.4202962874303, 2124.970424348584, 976.5456524147156, 1875.8809653692426, 30349.37462159667, 2650.162925644575, 1230.9436598544999, 7718.648045450857, 1313.7888604760833, 916.4304869090437, 4180.409208443832, 1613.8549088738014, 2100.889494232124, 6151.608206460616, 3750.9313571022835, 3474.3435994143993, 1001.0232614275367, 4307.078952073075, 1963.2191750892082, 1583.546824990173, 845.2604386735148, 3307.0804422478645, 1915.1325699843671, 2647.1640659740174 ], "var": [ 1517.6063231944343, 2884.270118725893, 1904.575809630453, 1886.5010829211549, 2054.865607396882, 1377.4343794095148, 1937.1090174164656, 1966.5901990427428, 1331.9881065406312, 1441.0191213496228, 2306.3764398281855, 2807.480842781341, 2168.1767123828818, 1721.53567803537, 2514.905703644801, 2280.1821134057027, 2805.6489417733737, 1668.522845877203, 1759.3242264178143, 2106.803327238147, 2419.142710552577, 1388.08393759668, 4261.740374384513, 1652.625169318704 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 31.839384756352228, "crpss": 0.0443963786668512, "rps": 0.4117001828950613, "rpss": 0.09139219922622643, "mean_bias_mm": -0.0961462256733796, "mean_mae_mm": 44.74842246685571, "mean_rmse_mm": 61.000241954212264, "spread_error_ratio": 0.749466880723318, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.2821391954460362, "pit_histogram": [ 0.2168, 0.0856, 0.07721, 0.08111, 0.07935, 0.07812, 0.07602, 0.07039, 0.08682, 0.14858 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.3307588569629662 } }, "operational": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 21.517535042088394, 14.174095638615206, 55.44246912339021, 15.06899308236741, 24.279829795783648, 14.55582118972001, 40.85486299791088, 41.28455693003947 ], "crps_clim": [ 20.32105586449988, 16.40570046524331, 65.52791755840862, 17.64632053938275, 24.293868622000836, 16.66802739812226, 40.184015667195084, 32.98246918464377 ], "rps": [ 0.4483380377298668, 0.32253197980716913, 0.4117907363444727, 0.30828178816791796, 0.4537081569013946, 0.2747144850441514, 0.4320936149014642, 0.5832566236549419 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4122606865060767, 0.37346476193268074, 0.5449498617316163, 0.36687869557844566, 0.47023810687668466, 0.3514902720415714, 0.4617152805402287, 0.46890906592470627 ], "bias": [ -14.330155063491588, -1.6153505020251961, -71.02318559693241, 0.6618286536854937, 10.278597700580308, 9.871706278332487, -46.886646027514004, -47.83986185866872 ], "mae": [ 29.541861050672768, 18.89892182066663, 72.40611027915187, 21.26535363548267, 35.521390478292766, 22.431228189216093, 54.44652440441904, 53.07726379827659 ], "mse": [ 1504.7246265268755, 572.3541663750166, 7418.110022943025, 1009.4761430746388, 1810.4592257937363, 808.6999757700935, 5083.01575338042, 4605.644790696895 ], "var": [ 1617.5567869448712, 1627.4448289066947, 3025.890049015878, 1503.5121066647253, 1402.5694717524257, 2118.0915469556267, 1763.3335498681354, 1318.4076396404412 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00021047670029985266, 0.0, 0.0, 7.812313123781639e-05 ] }, "crps": 28.397270474989405, "crpss": 0.029275006570493534, "rps": 0.40433942781892235, "rpss": 0.06237597864276789, "mean_bias_mm": -20.1103833020042, "mean_mae_mm": 38.4485817070223, "mean_rmse_mm": 53.40000550627395, "spread_error_ratio": 0.7938618110777848, "zero_fraction": 3.6074978942208635e-05, "correlation": 0.2501060642536288, "pit_histogram": [ 0.05905, 0.06242, 0.06565, 0.07341, 0.08707, 0.08487, 0.09247, 0.10823, 0.12871, 0.23812 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.3501229965880955 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 24.438100294486624, 13.683197258709782, 65.13637929781704, 21.52332687869142, 26.36540096284824, 13.895380672870939, 56.213637304190556, 22.247618874453405 ], "crps_clim": [ 24.012970318608165, 17.14717700571395, 95.49608165309667, 24.212333377463093, 25.06890034808142, 15.600720521826346, 60.26104362729821, 20.04862260959093 ], "rps": [ 0.4223842893637231, 0.28924471403932517, 0.18893547916929163, 0.3646237671998448, 0.5390442610753536, 0.2802893944309703, 0.41065639239009294, 0.41989398983359244 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.41878823842713037, 0.35324432725808413, 0.5497651995010865, 0.41409150307530557, 0.5005547552283075, 0.3283216384408885, 0.5179393125380852, 0.38569803603839053 ], "bias": [ -25.58812001392284, 6.460284028576592, -80.71470762560958, -3.7603022876109464, 43.43375463382744, 13.856714909059054, -65.46784547710908, -18.000461505919645 ], "mae": [ 31.376129401249585, 19.96863125578052, 84.20729291634773, 30.83579118817134, 44.0737002950646, 21.25570266071316, 73.70962613572054, 31.21963544363547 ], "mse": [ 1598.1526960889203, 581.0193567041911, 9735.706692485935, 1867.971101586917, 2290.2347888273625, 619.9634579459147, 7533.0383849183545, 1639.1751050724242 ], "var": [ 2346.4453849081224, 1785.4209665005512, 4788.732788682732, 1806.4147904032814, 1953.2455755693065, 2118.528617051492, 2408.063050237508, 1592.088730219836 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 30.437880193008503, "crpss": 0.13604789957009866, "rps": 0.36438403593777424, "rpss": 0.1595347257307782, "mean_bias_mm": -16.222585417338625, "mean_mae_mm": 42.08081366208536, "mean_rmse_mm": 56.86086262055609, "spread_error_ratio": 0.852527196446336, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.6901840783353386, "pit_histogram": [ 0.07847, 0.0825, 0.08203, 0.08892, 0.09094, 0.07269, 0.09155, 0.11364, 0.12071, 0.17855 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.22580934670726047 } }, "full": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 24.93568810748534, 21.787077459781905, 23.46498386769925, 26.40733853304761, 96.00718365543905, 32.262824337956346, 32.814288331930456, 39.624333650366125, 15.624694504140667, 22.771827823229522, 39.09007489834366, 18.85267126537283, 18.948608899550383, 30.802928043484012, 35.366837417403325, 21.838557726898774, 19.430386186952205, 40.86939190098392, 26.569022031843584, 26.12765488100833, 18.237757349006234, 31.47489728616521, 22.278116382667356, 21.699571465290877, 20.53199918036163, 14.065768255497575, 52.97280836126207, 15.595801008347767, 25.453199422234988, 15.29605573313131, 38.49167123832983, 39.04660365975409 ], "crps_clim": [ 21.565188759301577, 23.38563063557986, 19.097928412475547, 27.65831750898805, 115.86467554318806, 32.608713982744845, 35.74981363535668, 35.27522856142174, 17.037873658289875, 19.249766823627166, 29.95460921092147, 21.757280334006133, 22.589855526865747, 32.8860898565903, 21.287962454192346, 23.34276551652251, 20.5096382411715, 27.15997168831795, 25.49780817078038, 22.130467654701782, 19.335150240563912, 30.517713481749208, 23.826246347839884, 21.865464318236576, 19.893432351136823, 17.03329139891581, 64.14883327049633, 18.974050124817815, 25.33605920687928, 16.45512833366636, 38.480365999726736, 31.353009520945946 ], "rps": [ 0.4772521933471784, 0.4640478961377765, 0.5434539313255654, 0.5564076114823804, 0.28322398309157654, 0.45376583072662297, 0.412528310367481, 0.5360246647935992, 0.39190725993604025, 0.51679289501467, 0.756595664146363, 0.3389652030172906, 0.45229569517192253, 0.38090110264934246, 0.7319383467680004, 0.3985717577536046, 0.3602261371534419, 0.7598831104369624, 0.5125787500959565, 0.4881585582974507, 0.3497499919156907, 0.47514456984949566, 0.42069746802368785, 0.4800577166721681, 0.44387881305346855, 0.3118052266847692, 0.4127384193301459, 0.3298119392341211, 0.46487791216837426, 0.2973745174213427, 0.42812947719738226, 0.5861671265935122 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4235467576215105, 0.47608889223006146, 0.42116084841535095, 0.52922569582888, 0.5521940842175864, 0.48422399901825147, 0.4817361166669598, 0.48212565828300324, 0.39092541948658205, 0.43695066648742936, 0.5455763971634705, 0.37045590341108353, 0.4938985727810239, 0.45690686490267524, 0.44941552111033356, 0.42409929339583347, 0.4060824902077587, 0.5026173106347752, 0.49052948788469664, 0.41131287431461633, 0.38663843087009825, 0.4959596204449516, 0.4216770610806586, 0.46451823268332443, 0.4095379456154036, 0.3675043388775151, 0.5502738168335921, 0.3945497358652498, 0.47350515274771016, 0.3484831583622997, 0.46150350689172287, 0.4645838963389065 ], "bias": [ -15.725058096413745, 27.55305078810743, 32.368905416128506, 40.78854114449141, -116.60382995415004, -18.793799382851066, -18.76773719484333, -46.75232176979257, 4.809624803223976, 23.14733317534129, 61.20904530424445, 16.90969327562436, 30.21610350451264, -35.08532903518378, 54.070450318144665, -17.168600021592134, 2.2398072768461237, 61.650171468761165, 29.08180409285648, 24.565495599021745, -9.920143805147152, -39.286540899198855, 19.095367273827936, 16.53169513734731, -9.91517836131941, 2.9528233354577664, -67.98979467329357, 5.05339204110359, 15.564142264581731, 16.323348586513422, -43.341576711446294, -44.78800119400523 ], "mae": [ 33.7766617301497, 35.09585088415213, 36.56826353019529, 43.20394975931383, 117.52604536844733, 45.253075793426596, 45.40448489177983, 50.813125221303764, 23.94794657982778, 37.55272859497363, 61.285670477797424, 28.067815960049472, 32.572781112974766, 40.524966791984816, 54.508041583842655, 30.24958356495108, 28.51095782254115, 61.77740301063572, 42.28261454673241, 38.359947193809504, 23.84685263941871, 42.071256682623364, 35.148619906548824, 32.42227432911253, 28.152316389217628, 19.063328440749682, 69.70483297566096, 23.042473305849942, 37.408816501910906, 24.872504877737168, 52.065016609446516, 50.81601419469969 ], "mse": [ 2137.5812856004386, 1889.4310655152644, 2131.6392896873876, 2420.8390965286635, 19858.923234240152, 3400.9473350031203, 3665.215697134661, 4326.425444148109, 924.2702523504394, 2245.048007932568, 4606.873591434945, 1541.0760945257653, 1496.0715091925213, 2923.7938567716997, 4094.409398325172, 1726.1975964320677, 1259.8284343933572, 5434.80512720088, 2818.909963786872, 2439.787186035482, 952.0211575542099, 2807.352684968758, 1934.4390227297506, 1670.4538947143537, 1348.9240865554198, 573.3029085627179, 6980.685963288889, 1062.7258888856995, 2017.7038663121211, 919.3012540374494, 4683.641189551329, 4250.653186777545 ], "var": [ 1734.2292634572175, 2148.019410503238, 1781.7125698857553, 1777.4862043942992, 2445.7999378196737, 1475.979985645025, 2035.0486058655415, 1991.156129773054, 1465.4401512445704, 2274.196647593213, 2341.9849739259766, 2098.9331342812343, 1557.4132864161359, 1665.7322851924728, 1926.0407719582895, 1713.79966395404, 2242.455891050156, 2152.9722216989226, 1928.3583285578559, 1740.8888796282529, 2164.0072178596793, 1483.2052330238603, 3085.7900635175038, 1408.1054702101533, 1770.2586491120953, 1835.4978490930898, 3183.458587427753, 1679.2654157217698, 1569.6036756565213, 2432.9506438216818, 1900.413901811428, 1418.0186797582935 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00042937246861169943, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004263336225917233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00015937118772514544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008557060912034227, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00021047670029985266, 0.0, 0.0, 7.812313123781639e-05 ] }, "crps": 29.023144464530194, "crpss": -0.007498459164489102, "rps": 0.46299850249554325, "rpss": -0.024063378169223215, "mean_bias_mm": -0.00022238415941266965, "mean_mae_mm": 41.434256914745774, "mean_rmse_mm": 56.0533447290887, "spread_error_ratio": 0.787977773743567, "zero_fraction": 6.748072505217688e-05, "correlation": 0.11066192372999441, "pit_histogram": [ 0.20432, 0.09781, 0.07681, 0.07086, 0.07264, 0.07248, 0.07703, 0.08777, 0.09415, 0.14613 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.30089287742639104 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 18.92542508681837, 24.360680029191588, 16.38835196191505, 24.239113656915176, 122.53177957810826, 28.593916572941833, 19.751805611048194, 56.046828048517604, 19.167311599876477, 15.565963332763234, 41.57249452324383, 21.721252266912174, 25.391516481195815, 47.840780584848595, 35.66935180416471, 31.11038391894488, 16.822824770033122, 40.088978223343446, 23.35267700574182, 22.303208296538305, 16.82013844364555, 32.92557951920469, 24.38134305033378, 32.48472177004789, 23.202867736650607, 14.149957169445445, 63.7683005417402, 21.854342845903854, 29.446460578021238, 14.90931713988168, 54.27541952995687, 21.29599498341382 ], "crps_clim": [ 20.62823078391462, 22.736075489400832, 17.20303065300768, 33.38592024446952, 148.69890061775828, 32.54163468771625, 20.813924730768786, 45.34936829224909, 21.110172436165435, 18.987977073987647, 35.64746457072699, 24.18698188499711, 30.543634191772295, 49.7010744586202, 22.788748659461, 33.02631501609522, 18.025620044910095, 33.698138045350596, 26.182976675526973, 24.697762649323387, 18.323363286191857, 30.274060611645748, 36.95358378488871, 31.968592033538773, 23.529333965483502, 18.554147550975507, 95.7655520497254, 24.80422585413712, 28.59879576238074, 16.421943505646766, 59.22616150944826, 19.837161306589184 ], "rps": [ 0.39872339766252457, 0.4145385385666648, 0.32119498411990516, 0.374342550315965, 0.19561823047837104, 0.3893957458292506, 0.42332422493427807, 0.6449138008649966, 0.3911045390957831, 0.3117213160009652, 0.6544208175551723, 0.3764421318578271, 0.40348753141812027, 0.4279112755901934, 0.7059959911682476, 0.4511804439540098, 0.30814116775195693, 0.6034285424223286, 0.3625911532421358, 0.33140796329264705, 0.30965542957154896, 0.5114736133618383, 0.21598230995865472, 0.5395010075546325, 0.417397484955623, 0.29285406376020323, 0.17836772263531145, 0.3893378016627215, 0.5443395556359533, 0.3106422636287697, 0.3961977192209366, 0.41726955247585207 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4353624306832978, 0.4191800777990544, 0.33092642730556393, 0.5345989952281157, 0.5549256946518838, 0.4853155529512196, 0.4290652521208975, 0.49985640326148617, 0.40930380959521595, 0.37730746282751154, 0.5561589821998123, 0.3968450353921786, 0.5352098508957999, 0.5197317160936026, 0.4622154279575823, 0.47965872542692495, 0.3452359656196985, 0.510985845909633, 0.4364472915440719, 0.37533126250969556, 0.33575420241270676, 0.47704841054116015, 0.48221255024125415, 0.5432080506356914, 0.4191937836801347, 0.36236938480584985, 0.5586414801407072, 0.4345261685934756, 0.5204520422939962, 0.3377365051099261, 0.5222952003256466, 0.37908107264058183 ], "bias": [ 8.082024163877742, 24.47284868199667, 15.74325190349056, 39.974611682536164, -143.68904750397814, 22.741447269247665, 22.65335932694095, -66.06825437028799, -3.365639952602707, -7.939249128998656, 64.80308218701539, 25.403818112172438, 45.32520597552558, -59.135721648051025, 57.77629877118522, -40.463294197555484, 18.984684545079947, 59.05424131487821, 5.329658094573765, 0.15367072094773146, -0.14860384538458835, -39.79409707594975, 2.639799946059711, 46.38480228437546, -22.30321627810359, 10.159932124433153, -78.56407591674115, -0.08749540839177869, 48.719531347628156, 18.47213708233112, -63.35213569992238, -14.877883803446299 ], "mae": [ 29.613646366468707, 36.651251624077986, 25.07856763866963, 41.18497427376842, 145.00531476386635, 42.41195675260685, 31.727244917314934, 70.9565740189364, 27.492082046838185, 20.904340977617814, 64.80308218701539, 33.85147914415274, 45.35683664600343, 61.63301236558965, 58.50663486871284, 41.94956328194935, 28.645662732979336, 59.367130663244915, 35.330742601398335, 32.04662368218454, 22.620534120806017, 44.413745403508656, 33.85139577842593, 48.77192330705902, 29.32593362906593, 21.000105527620864, 82.85078247014032, 32.06340728621167, 49.009794713092845, 24.149784976810434, 71.95016494558388, 30.046747708030278 ], "mse": [ 1290.8914192022687, 2126.220915220338, 1008.1111643052237, 2123.2585235138167, 28092.099381935514, 2638.487017932005, 1435.0332021197323, 7097.785866311131, 1270.0872261595352, 792.4245965808136, 4624.732598521241, 1885.898495723105, 2413.562371417429, 5327.109000109661, 4220.53866890617, 2991.978537008718, 1150.38169757474, 4790.994715192176, 1961.6602494580306, 1686.7452944256613, 819.8130750177862, 2965.6510640613587, 2102.3151106056453, 2893.698976214002, 1418.0758101158392, 636.3980854979383, 9434.479920354386, 1881.9903556474621, 2767.9165004904985, 787.72442082449, 7164.953961887815, 1499.2595904259042 ], "var": [ 1617.7210191865965, 3106.7390529029117, 2050.0285311379885, 2017.916768238183, 2291.0151154681816, 1468.1636973419288, 2097.2013315526956, 2182.899219772542, 1447.2794695425198, 1539.3394606958784, 2462.9730522450127, 2982.580191477956, 2317.4572030290033, 1876.5944435366223, 2679.404150142723, 2513.5198990742642, 2990.6801045148345, 1787.0939060329717, 1909.7835237286456, 2282.9064461590824, 2625.8267044358277, 1513.1132805948937, 4553.625259410686, 1744.5605343324999, 2484.343152309171, 1928.295372012998, 4912.630860571382, 1947.5543287316464, 2165.414691142082, 2321.1055848888127, 2482.5778264824125, 1690.3414406951943 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 31.27997145816588, "crpss": 0.07678560313568583, "rps": 0.4066532147044809, "rpss": 0.10046038997322682, "mean_bias_mm": -0.09107216547243446, "mean_mae_mm": 44.455345044367235, "mean_rmse_mm": 59.50322412818287, "spread_error_ratio": 0.8081147587660533, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.3863803545848068, "pit_histogram": [ 0.19435, 0.09352, 0.08382, 0.08498, 0.08292, 0.07631, 0.07652, 0.08106, 0.08872, 0.1378 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.26430661438933445 } }, "distribution_full": { "ethiopia": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0003194768996455, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.0012221044742641983 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 0.8066996942698282, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.2584455850204978 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 1.2450121969173509, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.5347783152338359 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0477252776287742, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.13016842684523303 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9578048218696478, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.1109680683975253 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": -0.004027333498847804 } }, "ondj_domain": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9993227225508867, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.0013134709499939136 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 0.7338771215213792, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.32434174638155666 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 1.4697521230538597, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.4557701869407257 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0535646846507867, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.0965881419960718 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9264689155622409, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.12204713242147314 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": 0.0 } } } }, "mvs": { "training": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 28.700065628098088, 19.311769171793664, 21.117289676800727, 21.58867465843282, 98.06472083843083, 32.036766836077454, 33.08690667975023, 44.2852431162132, 16.028423498075494, 22.097836363186147, 33.164062673101725, 20.57206902125968, 14.575606472933519, 33.02204418715376, 31.638325839443873, 24.52548189477754, 21.55428891092256, 36.58087774522162, 22.713270224784914, 23.286872816493382, 20.64893357748274, 34.69737998618328, 22.104023616712695, 19.940812916353636 ], "crps_clim": [ 22.51064113159216, 21.34178182693399, 17.109998394156545, 24.703975408517493, 122.2696629923497, 34.35098937579959, 37.99006225524478, 38.26557578034132, 17.080571907583543, 17.74984365790482, 26.57914721869575, 20.704500238866018, 20.302011916608773, 36.321622918341355, 19.07649303993666, 24.496312766356763, 20.70257424683409, 24.33223915547966, 23.533815992682083, 20.40174081976945, 20.534635777607914, 33.59238533966214, 24.32853834433991, 20.828282238756913 ], "rps": [ 0.5546985879139547, 0.41028201596983876, 0.49550376715719124, 0.4739659830766469, 0.28021263812997177, 0.45532623698413427, 0.39711100969708524, 0.5985134709286796, 0.3633098005054792, 0.4794343427160735, 0.6533109773409893, 0.3615664568270845, 0.33816288745062123, 0.4250082384369448, 0.61718833104144, 0.4422710240333996, 0.412034832466242, 0.6750849938880588, 0.4350987801065845, 0.44816521532351267, 0.3841347028146771, 0.5087917362714028, 0.3499624306644049, 0.41680602082659995 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.43940389525455414, 0.46658159808332234, 0.4078016609722334, 0.5058326556309144, 0.5395139575622566, 0.49558246733465433, 0.4802715225811077, 0.49404333105867937, 0.39146218082661743, 0.427716413607736, 0.5144532326749148, 0.3688788606345833, 0.45641496128233255, 0.4825359164875749, 0.4144568430509284, 0.43646088297845814, 0.42094222250140517, 0.4840252597737128, 0.47195865794782255, 0.4060822454153488, 0.4076181814082607, 0.4985033826792915, 0.4183880428687596, 0.4537770988799093 ], "bias": [ -24.104298742419534, 23.77260309651746, 27.65389249396879, 35.09557707890956, -121.38502301635066, -25.711097384085758, -24.771017053472274, -53.85566531455789, -0.3024589813351222, 20.32301261193488, 58.351582689932556, 11.497953463456659, 22.990972096683468, -39.00672616378551, 51.15476165867081, -24.156733660767223, -1.0973702592324188, 58.383419472675186, 23.98732066106789, 20.774412103095123, -15.852072406173049, -45.47376534951927, 21.143492953844138, 9.343252333913215 ], "mae": [ 38.31704245340489, 32.31132559179728, 34.20084311378985, 38.354114536499075, 121.92472349020316, 46.39581935723237, 44.72317866773093, 56.61510157847045, 24.102513632323546, 36.47391487346026, 58.44775682967488, 27.928372337961076, 27.376637983615648, 44.1229418499333, 51.76496048247933, 33.207463057077355, 30.090342216169, 58.69351914242948, 39.23565766951822, 35.53209392483839, 24.9976751426258, 47.303301152192276, 36.50345327254462, 31.873906643524073 ], "mse": [ 2833.2484407039265, 1690.1724849285288, 1881.76948909696, 1938.1144732207363, 20738.54066189096, 3717.1238842379275, 3759.6219232111675, 5177.718251430596, 958.621651803506, 2145.479593445686, 4243.068961827944, 1435.0801562231177, 1077.8917456712222, 3349.5786096613974, 3724.452209541156, 2047.995318400086, 1442.2891303752388, 5287.828118380842, 2479.829197457475, 2168.293238480771, 1094.2009396929532, 3422.5858237719685, 2098.9287031128742, 1697.2360847163143 ], "var": [ 2448.277467334054, 3072.882364513157, 2393.6569110156433, 2451.846264068184, 2686.8482709040004, 2055.5562783243686, 2765.7533994975406, 2767.9498915080812, 2140.78646319956, 3217.8481044914442, 3261.080187756297, 3051.2499587700927, 2184.3575932296094, 2429.3721603527465, 2619.6362919663306, 2307.3111794972237, 3476.8745672744344, 2905.1603779342513, 2604.873650140091, 2255.1524701744756, 3043.7075283907125, 2091.943535098963, 4544.396521692258, 1999.026482433446 ], "zero": [ 0.1484870118563007, 0.06489185432225275, 0.040630531868683574, 0.06916967819585364, 0.03560915060177462, 0.09928025465337924, 0.08368110771273007, 0.10317952018646769, 0.05492562221957171, 0.047271913967410255, 0.0318236372147469, 0.10782804716910312, 0.07781886252232757, 0.041976230167811095, 0.02045598005212253, 0.0851357902993496, 0.0746723901442197, 0.052180321101538626, 0.05946503051534012, 0.04886995503306589, 0.06165975763437679, 0.04812606917382585, 0.012981428154071968, 0.08466400756237016 ] }, "crps": 28.972572764570145, "crpss": -0.009046983939649866, "rps": 0.4573310200237924, "rpss": -0.008567631396425801, "mean_bias_mm": 0.36483434929045916, "mean_mae_mm": 42.52069412497897, "mean_rmse_mm": 57.88266475209545, "spread_error_ratio": 0.897535035126155, "zero_fraction": 0.0647826730136956, "correlation": 0.08225478711737792, "pit_histogram": [ 0.10069, 0.12449, 0.10835, 0.09685, 0.0896, 0.0837, 0.08843, 0.09444, 0.09656, 0.11688 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.10081970504145446 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 18.40132824209317, 26.08531981777448, 17.579460428826913, 19.51288452417289, 120.37832537134715, 22.521182095087575, 17.775877879942247, 61.35288284602516, 19.56508315348336, 17.579133846772987, 34.60628243623781, 23.553381563829554, 18.22452785002189, 48.59208696205413, 32.411996103349296, 36.34403183751847, 17.895706318447626, 33.917649039921734, 22.546958244546015, 21.93413193449182, 18.545853661591032, 36.145225578933285, 25.58119482880271, 25.211757342203594 ], "crps_clim": [ 20.16546441774922, 22.76670826790671, 16.94469548167337, 31.09433614253317, 155.68767899429207, 31.182604674802132, 20.063728628019742, 47.67425501377674, 21.053644879747303, 19.513270179453034, 33.170969511215155, 22.839448378093994, 28.243116177805117, 53.561271942272995, 21.37134058167887, 35.54201609868039, 17.47907876438195, 31.583296905530318, 26.57160898637116, 24.874887655242915, 18.60790218298319, 31.38851277619512, 38.48344091464168, 29.783372053088755 ], "rps": [ 0.3710329883597116, 0.4169099284299618, 0.34454883983718193, 0.29301351825867494, 0.1924251905949873, 0.30939147796640026, 0.3636570585868642, 0.7135010485295712, 0.37875602529161084, 0.34815906655407697, 0.5478624364554388, 0.3745323980537049, 0.31652995263094585, 0.46192189065784345, 0.6231537632752506, 0.49852658958952395, 0.30833820472763857, 0.5073195598331426, 0.3354338755666236, 0.30971615897352034, 0.33535714364786057, 0.5452777987829672, 0.20067904352403837, 0.4292126455413842 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4283784846339526, 0.42670630481309463, 0.3446648823501038, 0.5130077295664848, 0.5410158900803291, 0.48132609963069506, 0.42143417253271964, 0.499616375801894, 0.4182216041304011, 0.40244267787358307, 0.5388940330394029, 0.3853584884109886, 0.5182825813030848, 0.5208909812511145, 0.44508072206563115, 0.4785608793092128, 0.35798102791050807, 0.4969649369586475, 0.42935647251841336, 0.3854220274094116, 0.34929100974978367, 0.4752706362743161, 0.48976956652503323, 0.5267262488889791 ], "bias": [ 1.2599944502420033, 27.468133236434827, 10.550652056411005, 33.505949145222246, -144.39785282200245, 14.724897187268379, 14.160411392470285, -75.30066175599976, -9.157751762987827, -10.439772939406717, 62.264122570838865, 23.13809614112653, 38.76791899057564, -61.20097333239936, 54.857405980806625, -47.05155767654506, 20.889115063661816, 52.02952250308581, 0.5243971422347292, -2.2840163869311296, -5.78405175337531, -46.64050214814874, 10.486800517831623, 41.18521310769785 ], "mae": [ 28.052486503815924, 39.07343124379459, 25.352554635728094, 35.209008125257476, 145.38154097546138, 36.788880513147234, 26.103559236956976, 78.47036593710746, 27.92114408738375, 21.557416325330784, 62.264122570838865, 33.39266405704628, 38.84207657818217, 64.39618163163202, 55.83194450388247, 47.96215124750594, 29.247671632402984, 52.67056825754718, 34.211651414816984, 31.119852813728425, 21.843791621986977, 49.757478327502994, 37.42539763639021, 43.85823702492401 ], "mse": [ 1268.0594334349573, 2449.686548134609, 1022.8025598078253, 1603.2142112903898, 27815.45716219867, 2303.2295367122792, 1056.3654017447468, 8415.60842761661, 1339.1691732769284, 852.1957048085267, 4308.475200061264, 1764.387892491317, 1802.1948642885152, 5790.9852217117805, 3781.6683564462496, 3656.5480723526352, 1211.488798058233, 4163.784253896882, 1891.6368293385074, 1604.3339794924013, 846.1867164472891, 3570.3072271761507, 2355.0960269102634, 2407.171073799558 ], "var": [ 2338.2863264276452, 4590.573967814941, 2776.0780211702945, 2852.2581275107655, 2679.4841375373135, 1952.2675686051882, 2748.1876600653286, 2713.737049411082, 2110.808009114852, 2256.9101245506695, 3515.5457728737074, 4395.319206934642, 3267.5872701623166, 2791.4047639843247, 3595.77164549001, 3356.2108290919637, 4693.172980928881, 2412.162138110298, 2587.90091724133, 2932.71583188096, 3460.2620683446326, 2085.8501960159615, 6766.430422735925, 2420.6348722207317 ], "zero": [ 0.048709407466599706, 0.006884227887236073, 0.030426500415370494, 0.08104006240840186, 0.003603012396689523, 0.07264761328114318, 0.06309700136894124, 0.07106506274439209, 0.03271588530683438, 0.0029964673618112126, 0.016912311538472283, 0.04118663224981499, 0.0594484644479236, 0.008772531349244116, 0.008495653634478368, 0.049390484949361275, 0.008624480879704544, 0.0413808079729727, 0.015311515623552803, 0.024754803914705595, 0.025824130581396036, 0.029337969948207747, 0.004242911809355382, 0.027012803390333556 ] }, "crps": 30.67759424614479, "crpss": 0.07926549524308202, "rps": 0.39688569181953853, "rpss": 0.12408725916294838, "mean_bias_mm": 0.14814537117132906, "mean_mae_mm": 44.447257370932135, "mean_rmse_mm": 60.304799654027185, "spread_error_ratio": 0.9288353147951025, "zero_fraction": 0.03224503095528928, "correlation": 0.28812470359056713, "pit_histogram": [ 0.09871, 0.09906, 0.10319, 0.11374, 0.1144, 0.09908, 0.09103, 0.07803, 0.08886, 0.1139 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.09047074041427441 } }, "operational": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 22.46311079347443, 15.651134970970032, 50.59309624524309, 15.98143340797807, 23.844528914788363, 15.594733581600709, 38.95352115697368, 41.98381221839084 ], "crps_clim": [ 20.32105586449988, 16.40570046524331, 65.52791755840862, 17.64632053938275, 24.293868622000836, 16.66802739812226, 40.184015667195084, 32.98246918464377 ], "rps": [ 0.45833367453923773, 0.360755261269935, 0.4347095956677833, 0.34564266392379706, 0.44715944184710604, 0.29179939803530514, 0.44239680029753653, 0.629065062321313 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4122606865060767, 0.37346476193268074, 0.5449498617316163, 0.36687869557844566, 0.47023810687668466, 0.3514902720415714, 0.4617152805402287, 0.46890906592470627 ], "bias": [ -15.028222431775472, -3.342034617407805, -67.18741892721836, -2.1263006989963853, 9.857983190740864, 13.248258824036776, -45.66398340120529, -51.29639291293942 ], "mae": [ 29.847392382092025, 18.41499314651165, 68.34571263138069, 20.0507430649311, 35.164665779810626, 23.030030032115228, 53.716498275228645, 54.98446343385684 ], "mse": [ 1519.1379376427003, 558.796385293393, 6646.167900338768, 971.8387904570303, 1782.9256830986303, 848.3150552400984, 4984.637027920391, 4970.69583956497 ], "var": [ 2527.6871076077045, 2593.552013224941, 4681.461430132581, 2256.7903651402894, 2226.244337457605, 3397.262801395622, 2845.349284651082, 1989.7066454437117 ], "zero": [ 0.08033203651271507, 0.07886022816299654, 0.09228691622409868, 0.12435319197652263, 0.07061479464826553, 0.05183010135106073, 0.045748696266213015, 0.12027465798338281 ] }, "crps": 28.1331714111774, "crpss": 0.038302901072165496, "rps": 0.4262327372377517, "rpss": 0.01160751184043085, "mean_bias_mm": -20.19226387184564, "mean_mae_mm": 37.94431234324085, "mean_rmse_mm": 52.77607722675585, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0052714020417826, "zero_fraction": 0.08303757789065688, "correlation": 0.25336469950499463, "pit_histogram": [ 0.01528, 0.0388, 0.06076, 0.07844, 0.11159, 0.1216, 0.12087, 0.13194, 0.13893, 0.1818 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.41344020905108325 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 27.30715329823253, 15.083441594633243, 53.53235791013854, 22.125632083999683, 23.864594197047566, 15.43353174556798, 51.284981618573234, 23.67887365004317 ], "crps_clim": [ 24.012970318608165, 17.14717700571395, 95.49608165309667, 24.212333377463093, 25.06890034808142, 15.600720521826346, 60.26104362729821, 20.04862260959093 ], "rps": [ 0.46307806613805536, 0.31997472745251276, 0.18451906649104538, 0.36838219390046906, 0.4635878379163997, 0.3134903331422306, 0.4088086498116863, 0.44161468619932565 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.41878823842713037, 0.35324432725808413, 0.5497651995010865, 0.41409150307530557, 0.5005547552283075, 0.3283216384408885, 0.5179393125380852, 0.38569803603839053 ], "bias": [ -27.000130619255312, 4.717342855382208, -69.48310178064553, -6.884806845740927, 41.94078791334895, 13.129984676842733, -60.74161383185057, -22.33404683763898 ], "mae": [ 32.28508769893126, 18.480806089711226, 72.4200147598475, 29.26960947163064, 42.61344122868053, 20.671557299940684, 70.02231048764823, 31.632605803648147 ], "mse": [ 1652.1229588927806, 531.1695034977416, 7475.130149997717, 1833.153102860527, 2170.8293615921198, 603.2125414732385, 6885.561741180698, 1729.1302800383125 ], "var": [ 3537.3386819898424, 2844.0281924662745, 7250.821738487584, 2617.045464673891, 3021.3065685108904, 3273.6747516435157, 3961.9544473250785, 2325.8927312230576 ], "zero": [ 0.06003837166020487, 0.060290945674666974, 0.014365302809795557, 0.052613561948299026, 0.054477008172908827, 0.041089293192271795, 0.014273346424849556, 0.06443974918303985 ] }, "crps": 29.038820762279492, "crpss": 0.1757589545496182, "rps": 0.3704319451314656, "rpss": 0.1455849991843079, "mean_bias_mm": -15.831948058694678, "mean_mae_mm": 39.674429105004776, "mean_rmse_mm": 53.47932969794631, "spread_error_ratio": 1.1225531353091804, "zero_fraction": 0.045198447383254556, "correlation": 0.6908003240801455, "pit_histogram": [ 0.02571, 0.051, 0.06847, 0.08967, 0.13339, 0.12186, 0.11924, 0.14191, 0.13013, 0.1186 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.3302733080704656 } }, "full": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 26.220524061163445, 21.15772734239702, 23.439901064912213, 24.245216526476803, 89.97382892659662, 29.406067783680466, 31.40869425905291, 40.726474561385466, 15.847419095592736, 23.065437225156927, 36.87336780073111, 20.651537200793435, 16.316450746787325, 29.551436441799755, 35.14566429251872, 23.137548741029864, 20.981235961301184, 39.77193803230665, 24.893712797163055, 25.772260303846487, 19.095721684613288, 31.030121534646717, 23.6080596113803, 19.736675776586395, 21.415985757376, 15.0364541829808, 48.440038447371236, 15.875517913217099, 24.83326508782831, 16.216760803186975, 36.65218501387941, 39.61914023175464 ], "crps_clim": [ 21.565188759301577, 23.38563063557986, 19.097928412475547, 27.65831750898805, 115.86467554318806, 32.608713982744845, 35.74981363535668, 35.27522856142174, 17.037873658289875, 19.249766823627166, 29.95460921092147, 21.757280334006133, 22.589855526865747, 32.8860898565903, 21.287962454192346, 23.34276551652251, 20.5096382411715, 27.15997168831795, 25.49780817078038, 22.130467654701782, 19.335150240563912, 30.517713481749208, 23.826246347839884, 21.865464318236576, 19.893432351136823, 17.03329139891581, 64.14883327049633, 18.974050124817815, 25.33605920687928, 16.45512833366636, 38.480365999726736, 31.353009520945946 ], "rps": [ 0.5134712395880227, 0.4291656727735514, 0.5346350034478121, 0.5010747730690294, 0.2771087216249187, 0.42534272912380805, 0.4030039230150274, 0.5717322165416333, 0.38144998087592474, 0.5024030659086117, 0.7014989826811765, 0.3585849240988081, 0.392288898010859, 0.38882146362751324, 0.7101626332445379, 0.4295280030996466, 0.3978993730295463, 0.7100265781029672, 0.4671658275974725, 0.4801030556911629, 0.36844892237858723, 0.49027355169589326, 0.41950935248177496, 0.429357449021059, 0.45160931949533745, 0.3339274640197428, 0.4265383412547986, 0.3350020567073925, 0.44773981301941296, 0.3010233323761055, 0.43474301125458303, 0.6118985192153975 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4235467576215105, 0.47608889223006146, 0.42116084841535095, 0.52922569582888, 0.5521940842175864, 0.48422399901825147, 0.4817361166669598, 0.48212565828300324, 0.39092541948658205, 0.43695066648742936, 0.5455763971634705, 0.37045590341108353, 0.4938985727810239, 0.45690686490267524, 0.44941552111033356, 0.42409929339583347, 0.4060824902077587, 0.5026173106347752, 0.49052948788469664, 0.41131287431461633, 0.38663843087009825, 0.4959596204449516, 0.4216770610806586, 0.46451823268332443, 0.4095379456154036, 0.3675043388775151, 0.5502738168335921, 0.3945497358652498, 0.47350515274771016, 0.3484831583622997, 0.46150350689172287, 0.4645838963389065 ], "bias": [ -19.089991492251837, 29.02213072883743, 32.52746081208153, 39.57196376683237, -113.21209417019115, -20.65349179260168, -19.269757314134623, -48.34749622139484, 4.861716326063286, 24.955586200104953, 62.78899653056443, 16.38287684685589, 28.01824227680413, -33.52066459070099, 55.949413264446896, -18.583747593963466, 4.080216489489498, 62.79125904749179, 29.184884203157203, 25.85048880342634, -10.466040308860038, -39.83123044197195, 26.217708506289387, 14.299053733994366, -10.455916119838477, 1.4505655580287473, -64.24907718046256, 2.7500160686925894, 15.261673920130228, 18.891241274953384, -41.96934979253303, -47.744902900969635 ], "mae": [ 35.2230396269905, 35.333447566730165, 37.3326681959019, 41.96824256867077, 114.13124144364348, 43.26273219066158, 43.21060864344724, 52.12871448965238, 24.260257099020382, 38.39581187784802, 62.86562810398868, 28.814970629828082, 30.69466241397632, 39.66029907570487, 56.32742956709694, 31.441971261706378, 30.27520133102601, 62.940738449122996, 42.14536214616065, 39.173310412380715, 23.650687518279565, 42.587364441047384, 39.29315417348747, 31.783180192518653, 28.473341749980378, 18.367130500931342, 65.62860050373826, 21.74802484744409, 37.014245975441305, 25.55667983016995, 51.17568788009597, 52.14817030724664 ], "mse": [ 2403.6670782177766, 1917.6439677995545, 2230.9329828021177, 2306.3725521248352, 18629.808692751172, 3233.450662062577, 3410.170755192625, 4564.645280529274, 950.0821515415663, 2352.6262534488683, 4858.7363004334275, 1594.8168242778984, 1334.6921832066496, 2797.7449670420965, 4331.550609490757, 1819.3532335449484, 1407.3884380476927, 5887.450305272179, 2828.7607175235407, 2540.5989231241088, 948.7180698185333, 2853.398281881998, 2360.7624571554693, 1637.8618599677015, 1360.950932614978, 538.5100626886226, 6200.441013554737, 1006.6687185365563, 1981.6986008934782, 995.3130935558321, 4536.931832131394, 4499.307143884014 ], "var": [ 2459.6175410159017, 3080.134638445682, 2372.787501344307, 2446.673764981017, 2949.5589957769143, 2073.757012142282, 2816.3347963928804, 2795.177412490145, 2119.6320901061076, 3090.9488461362394, 3211.421588818723, 3070.891845021794, 2203.7301122395525, 2435.3228121441402, 2598.5865760704755, 2375.683713015426, 3431.433966336883, 2853.558980933092, 2575.659103877031, 2255.781558314358, 3050.0190954071923, 2083.214793560395, 4469.918791138742, 2006.695633406671, 2565.141001197706, 2646.966995186812, 4557.447493646625, 2294.309916692398, 2239.2231859931726, 3476.8207067621133, 2810.9434379560153, 1989.668755468728 ], "zero": [ 0.09613059016244749, 0.0332374590801325, 0.021849773825383653, 0.04704486944849936, 0.025668378790389877, 0.06292656603723558, 0.05787741674104829, 0.06640945061792611, 0.028814095359262815, 0.0252831043389085, 0.017767708750542916, 0.06466929396516855, 0.04422586911393117, 0.020520663474936883, 0.008766553562878691, 0.052120562909933374, 0.03749366034039, 0.029468934938975313, 0.03195641522967241, 0.03119032985924569, 0.03447127028861924, 0.023231275799648145, 0.006003716432853164, 0.047997909050030235, 0.049379326767914844, 0.05287044256460014, 0.06705086782452141, 0.08423884171004824, 0.04657880323488402, 0.03270146494404709, 0.024905728798908948, 0.09020267251148166 ] }, "crps": 28.44207403779729, "crpss": 0.012672599843776444, "rps": 0.45704806868975356, "rpss": -0.010902166390167833, "mean_bias_mm": 0.23317920119906876, "mean_mae_mm": 41.469143906685595, "mean_rmse_mm": 55.991365111371465, "spread_error_ratio": 0.9334202485542663, "zero_fraction": 0.042595438014827076, "correlation": 0.11690560823949196, "pit_histogram": [ 0.11861, 0.11678, 0.09462, 0.08652, 0.09271, 0.08823, 0.09053, 0.09948, 0.09702, 0.11551 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.10179535688531378 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 18.02669093149374, 26.342741770567482, 17.571425911100253, 20.954799767396697, 110.9028609421356, 22.74000906620294, 18.847339864544814, 57.789212875854886, 19.009569173019667, 16.67218351460316, 36.95320119611978, 24.476495169654637, 19.957679763124528, 44.211893535631766, 34.69990005355235, 33.298851091473885, 18.425427721584494, 36.20763663716921, 22.41638693449788, 22.74923777609819, 17.7418098800595, 33.505928018218455, 26.51775578332256, 26.846964007380066, 26.119295422875524, 15.372204310104586, 52.63280838308524, 22.08619859547621, 26.828158200641774, 16.033158453707884, 49.472813872867455, 22.538745438596003 ], "crps_clim": [ 20.62823078391462, 22.736075489400832, 17.20303065300768, 33.38592024446952, 148.69890061775828, 32.54163468771625, 20.813924730768786, 45.34936829224909, 21.110172436165435, 18.987977073987647, 35.64746457072699, 24.18698188499711, 30.543634191772295, 49.7010744586202, 22.788748659461, 33.02631501609522, 18.025620044910095, 33.698138045350596, 26.182976675526973, 24.697762649323387, 18.323363286191857, 30.274060611645748, 36.95358378488871, 31.968592033538773, 23.529333965483502, 18.554147550975507, 95.7655520497254, 24.80422585413712, 28.59879576238074, 16.421943505646766, 59.22616150944826, 19.837161306589184 ], "rps": [ 0.37292616759371655, 0.4224774817319082, 0.3517448818450718, 0.30671265379786916, 0.18495879539737228, 0.30472517477764305, 0.38852585976570914, 0.6954125138311535, 0.37206581001479827, 0.33113208162125835, 0.5621537350814679, 0.3959846193467153, 0.33400792076023067, 0.4292237347194407, 0.6650131454981645, 0.4917919713231766, 0.3186614585259472, 0.5211650670608041, 0.3676749024847292, 0.3401297544174932, 0.3327765803543929, 0.5386582767349495, 0.2188940897211703, 0.43928116426595437, 0.46236050251601796, 0.3200697486874809, 0.17591279174655264, 0.3770358385427611, 0.47227647375224996, 0.3230103806579454, 0.3984788566193515, 0.4257753016095424 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4353624306832978, 0.4191800777990544, 0.33092642730556393, 0.5345989952281157, 0.5549256946518838, 0.4853155529512196, 0.4290652521208975, 0.49985640326148617, 0.40930380959521595, 0.37730746282751154, 0.5561589821998123, 0.3968450353921786, 0.5352098508957999, 0.5197317160936026, 0.4622154279575823, 0.47965872542692495, 0.3452359656196985, 0.510985845909633, 0.4364472915440719, 0.37533126250969556, 0.33575420241270676, 0.47704841054116015, 0.48221255024125415, 0.5432080506356914, 0.4191937836801347, 0.36236938480584985, 0.5586414801407072, 0.4345261685934756, 0.5204520422939962, 0.3377365051099261, 0.5222952003256466, 0.37908107264058183 ], "bias": [ 4.881039678567561, 31.4225798258456, 14.442806371525396, 36.626749991880395, -135.49075385462444, 18.00725129009123, 18.27270304563911, -70.58943561089679, -4.936641190692421, -6.363878204433834, 65.65841755181474, 26.658684412673278, 42.25875951490376, -56.41694252185609, 58.923834016003646, -42.296156356558015, 24.759664823251295, 55.82327544577929, 5.161076259382101, 2.2182313662210458, -1.5617344905502688, -42.10259627755943, 15.161889122857104, 44.47962891074946, -23.770538346195654, 8.383376556525343, -67.8725714010412, -3.1604267545586606, 47.2743417291829, 17.71838598873844, -58.69800997168275, -19.25428040680018 ], "mae": [ 27.831957816407293, 39.8073355931115, 25.4894754336674, 37.964524573073, 136.74019076222444, 37.43009170210547, 28.7167377633758, 74.49185917816806, 27.378625418640926, 20.285704154197262, 65.65841755181474, 35.76670002829157, 42.28097367775511, 59.45740165890761, 59.55097792318288, 43.69659171453113, 31.824293066366156, 56.206575591952955, 34.53617220389638, 32.788379109825364, 22.009396380494398, 46.56948452621962, 39.66621117519603, 46.34387319608686, 30.241341334081383, 19.620097127417438, 71.35954311240872, 30.31766816245534, 47.57228261234948, 23.49593082020781, 68.27404993365953, 30.29122929699117 ], "mse": [ 1198.4525774404578, 2451.0776146274548, 1038.8216992675361, 1846.0334263224306, 25233.60240072325, 2266.5134043034254, 1243.1325153072216, 7698.0174556971, 1279.987428233282, 739.1968418277713, 4747.906982821369, 2033.7349529023063, 2113.5155868847382, 5009.972251915811, 4226.302455484106, 3135.338051632957, 1402.644758411117, 4625.73628239266, 1893.9996823961776, 1712.5452771270332, 803.2035473975528, 3182.5513381341098, 2644.3391449366886, 2649.249772776374, 1470.6314583054393, 583.1355900381424, 7251.3964736094285, 1824.6127142111632, 2635.9826499689234, 771.7072172736537, 6518.152226075859, 1561.6116753357455 ], "var": [ 2393.613565434686, 4685.9989767055495, 2854.6636750812886, 2948.435525573825, 3057.6393162120426, 2023.8633616326917, 2868.1546883710625, 2890.402004905141, 2193.6662616311955, 2284.5547792748375, 3594.6580255821273, 4480.134717494714, 3375.8233393099254, 2923.1386847348545, 3682.4287589082255, 3571.2660338027654, 4745.823464227825, 2495.291735805268, 2689.775228440337, 3030.83916997044, 3583.288520679393, 2159.6567808867176, 6838.0560166476735, 2470.1966305473243, 3706.0841103348303, 2977.4187178485977, 7099.714463726426, 2714.4192444213863, 3134.5143998997514, 3455.111441582761, 3932.2005408788687, 2422.025433668797 ], "zero": [ 0.037030373647762016, 0.00507778935980222, 0.02367375863666002, 0.07005806388779201, 0.003326149256599853, 0.06124090748037648, 0.050790280805628515, 0.055977044310265255, 0.023053828221964667, 0.0015348146108085893, 0.012118554420030776, 0.031664129581234976, 0.04492511811907025, 0.006059386278290242, 0.0066835721399381, 0.03986862980970042, 0.005775241705681512, 0.029965739467016646, 0.008916848766833827, 0.021695237461288115, 0.01761759251765662, 0.020360933437765304, 0.003268891473162849, 0.021861240788701896, 0.05342671884598376, 0.05135604570522585, 0.011130737339373777, 0.045187058454805064, 0.041801564980217976, 0.03351309467301118, 0.011616007817712359, 0.05512679291717074 ] }, "crps": 29.935918251942535, "crpss": 0.11645473364613257, "rps": 0.395031804212595, "rpss": 0.12616759868035354, "mean_bias_mm": 0.17558532856818765, "mean_mae_mm": 43.55200289372071, "mean_rmse_mm": 58.03907774448751, "spread_error_ratio": 0.9976303999398866, "zero_fraction": 0.028303192091172873, "correlation": 0.39098680140535835, "pit_histogram": [ 0.09179, 0.09779, 0.10588, 0.10963, 0.11768, 0.09847, 0.09212, 0.09254, 0.09403, 0.10006 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.06649977638655413 } }, "distribution_full": { "ethiopia": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0008837789411251, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.005914994665930149 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9950590589952831, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.02530463965273183 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.8752728568423634, "area_mean_abs_log": 2.269941711722794 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 1.031574403278004, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.10612640122512984 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0307939318249801, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.08007972216021983 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.01301470588235294, "area_mean": 0.03850062379092707 } }, "ondj_domain": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0004701930147983, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.0033128313598409687 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9888323591286632, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.04169880481559309 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9074026877232823, "area_mean_abs_log": 1.115567573564573 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0321872153287377, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.07344948873984929 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0197764946924512, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.07005466377201347 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.009926470588235292, "area_mean": 0.028303192091172855 } } } }, "vs": { "training": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 28.853299780718643, 19.64146201672452, 21.256972609695897, 21.44396964293849, 98.05388529276746, 31.6331837319198, 33.31290100674784, 44.48706605517275, 16.166260294692588, 22.303719521263396, 32.68141129563866, 20.936356498389504, 14.527775063070461, 33.07913167108409, 31.4535560851067, 24.809906519734696, 21.881280908325593, 36.18567747077595, 22.690024418288314, 23.365325547899104, 20.882521412696324, 34.827859050990156, 22.3467429710908, 19.537627958774973 ], "crps_clim": [ 22.51064113159216, 21.34178182693399, 17.109998394156545, 24.703975408517493, 122.2696629923497, 34.35098937579959, 37.99006225524478, 38.26557578034132, 17.080571907583543, 17.74984365790482, 26.57914721869575, 20.704500238866018, 20.302011916608773, 36.321622918341355, 19.07649303993666, 24.496312766356763, 20.70257424683409, 24.33223915547966, 23.533815992682083, 20.40174081976945, 20.534635777607914, 33.59238533966214, 24.32853834433991, 20.828282238756913 ], "rps": [ 0.5569577179228274, 0.41088682271613813, 0.49676396261367645, 0.4716878874142889, 0.2802094311707617, 0.4511523100844773, 0.39958993164538975, 0.6016242092893456, 0.3654043936193542, 0.48216606067172163, 0.6473481185463993, 0.3644951145183162, 0.3364871886196494, 0.4260606695487177, 0.6126255285412773, 0.44634187788718654, 0.41458041289969777, 0.6688154564019769, 0.4354172216235077, 0.44921672753493713, 0.387005765593865, 0.5122704023566294, 0.34941039127528134, 0.41068256436054845 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.43940389525455414, 0.46658159808332234, 0.4078016609722334, 0.5058326556309144, 0.5395139575622566, 0.49558246733465433, 0.4802715225811077, 0.49404333105867937, 0.39146218082661743, 0.427716413607736, 0.5144532326749148, 0.3688788606345833, 0.45641496128233255, 0.4825359164875749, 0.4144568430509284, 0.43646088297845814, 0.42094222250140517, 0.4840252597737128, 0.47195865794782255, 0.4060822454153488, 0.4076181814082607, 0.4985033826792915, 0.4183880428687596, 0.4537770988799093 ], "bias": [ -24.37278526934403, 24.734166713571977, 27.812957123640974, 34.74306827103819, -121.37364613248074, -26.104025300727578, -25.106976084489467, -54.275684458418695, -0.6151604623033279, 20.446965287565124, 58.29949730517024, 11.873911628362134, 22.62397760912754, -38.71418314502215, 51.35155993120159, -24.40315794205667, -0.44845489910111436, 58.155594177435255, 23.950571509598067, 21.028429428730405, -15.853212772616619, -45.71346643559204, 22.908919925092217, 9.197918734570036 ], "mae": [ 38.32141727446809, 33.17434141590511, 34.34824556217503, 38.037673288565, 121.91334660633326, 46.004254007370406, 44.770279942400485, 56.98497740781576, 24.22935276242251, 36.573466560773305, 58.395671444912566, 28.19666865549431, 27.052627616327722, 44.041369615922555, 51.961758755010116, 33.40098163965524, 30.569600719670472, 58.47675472060952, 39.17601141260788, 35.50258063553968, 24.99394935667322, 47.54370939768752, 37.08969394185381, 31.738861715108527 ], "mse": [ 2833.6005856080014, 1827.36547527287, 1897.0229580723417, 1911.025678507998, 20727.11177679792, 3679.757627695877, 3763.36529642122, 5272.835532591051, 970.3782164580299, 2157.4875011126815, 4236.799297881527, 1455.1213551526932, 1053.5497760902672, 3336.0951297579286, 3753.481529008024, 2064.689748471423, 1485.7342442288877, 5270.441649477639, 2472.8466651352032, 2166.927856009941, 1094.8311972693486, 3461.566257750333, 2169.2984168075277, 1684.3382690563528 ], "var": [ 2585.368050030344, 3338.912437708257, 2550.684942734162, 2589.6864155386147, 2689.4475348167484, 2152.530446376626, 2887.2710679621396, 2857.5629815805446, 2234.3468077821663, 3390.2742704275975, 3414.208199655984, 3359.3790592579585, 2333.873157341643, 2622.240641188366, 2840.0587992738924, 2438.0827937322824, 3841.7614898700285, 3009.1387594039043, 2747.969177940912, 2434.5199385806322, 3222.0667299164434, 2197.844699666227, 5218.453193584558, 2150.4902519055518 ], "zero": [ 0.1523576474571331, 0.06589578494492566, 0.0431807763930421, 0.07714104943609189, 0.03512754203541726, 0.10337519225600461, 0.08948244241109414, 0.11067018300197791, 0.05883034746548151, 0.048486848581602265, 0.033667997423727426, 0.11389596289420567, 0.08440917231753711, 0.04295307185059883, 0.021402914021157102, 0.09014744174302772, 0.07672609085335172, 0.055844727947180775, 0.061305611430400274, 0.052014049922659775, 0.06480492413070135, 0.05217188441058862, 0.013928928936060713, 0.08718646792110575 ] }, "crps": 29.014913201021113, "crpss": -0.010521602367454141, "rps": 0.4573833402856655, "rpss": -0.008683015046956788, "mean_bias_mm": 0.4227826976229707, "mean_mae_mm": 42.604066435637584, "mean_rmse_mm": 58.00347404848375, "spread_error_ratio": 0.9251215361855314, "zero_fraction": 0.06812529415771139, "correlation": 0.07942067592558187, "pit_histogram": [ 0.09371, 0.12452, 0.10869, 0.09815, 0.09265, 0.08654, 0.08974, 0.09512, 0.0953, 0.11557 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.09757679053755436 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 18.715806346244086, 26.929722087339147, 17.953215924336536, 19.16246664905762, 120.27065167684222, 21.46330963144312, 18.330063816605172, 61.826976856690784, 19.912173474495876, 18.048901258446836, 33.39958940543938, 24.433643649156405, 18.11727326621019, 48.706488205921346, 31.945830089767533, 37.047547337264156, 18.684489903233697, 32.896370906287395, 22.513031560866853, 22.147219599938698, 19.1038108060346, 36.473434542220254, 26.158000803392166, 24.177244150248647 ], "crps_clim": [ 20.16546441774922, 22.76670826790671, 16.94469548167337, 31.09433614253317, 155.68767899429207, 31.182604674802132, 20.063728628019742, 47.67425501377674, 21.053644879747303, 19.513270179453034, 33.170969511215155, 22.839448378093994, 28.243116177805117, 53.561271942272995, 21.37134058167887, 35.54201609868039, 17.47907876438195, 31.583296905530318, 26.57160898637116, 24.874887655242915, 18.60790218298319, 31.38851277619512, 38.48344091464168, 29.783372053088755 ], "rps": [ 0.376472937190586, 0.41902157280708613, 0.34867272520217785, 0.2885233852279849, 0.1924597540455431, 0.29759203305613663, 0.36979703248020335, 0.7210546151127646, 0.3844342530959493, 0.35523942529038754, 0.5343891246145516, 0.38103874041348007, 0.31165638752668456, 0.4645149023452048, 0.6125705154426738, 0.5082969933275552, 0.314018672460256, 0.4917672883453533, 0.3369507844991327, 0.3127688703262643, 0.3420901409505994, 0.5538175263984587, 0.19948257018473145, 0.41390521041328654 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4283784846339526, 0.42670630481309463, 0.3446648823501038, 0.5130077295664848, 0.5410158900803291, 0.48132609963069506, 0.42143417253271964, 0.499616375801894, 0.4182216041304011, 0.40244267787358307, 0.5388940330394029, 0.3853584884109886, 0.5182825813030848, 0.5208909812511145, 0.44508072206563115, 0.4785608793092128, 0.35798102791050807, 0.4969649369586475, 0.42935647251841336, 0.3854220274094116, 0.34929100974978367, 0.4752706362743161, 0.48976956652503323, 0.5267262488889791 ], "bias": [ 0.5689615475173782, 29.943217958817765, 10.942171573758214, 32.55739446442192, -144.3335840642319, 13.708896359610504, 13.300499354181861, -76.38699342841684, -9.960038606439529, -10.265851719639246, 62.077084918093604, 24.119203152308845, 37.859277799777345, -60.49334612406386, 55.327422373902664, -47.66124261252768, 22.531560830642178, 51.3504566412826, 0.4350659110091726, -1.6551588675975244, -5.795476401994578, -47.2593808887823, 14.836546159533368, 40.865868844770034 ], "mae": [ 28.029867379879132, 41.29990392700834, 25.71416959269285, 34.35293910365318, 145.31727221769086, 35.79911177946882, 26.227331062065254, 79.42999275963386, 28.245391493383543, 21.66532482950231, 62.077084918093604, 34.062434965421765, 38.03707294806791, 64.1696014818932, 56.3019608969785, 48.45034172295762, 30.464016647787137, 52.01986506212085, 34.05191201808786, 31.027602152489898, 21.83085799459711, 50.37817039028695, 38.77641716757632, 43.538892761996195 ], "mse": [ 1264.6051696827988, 2800.4659161399445, 1058.502969095183, 1526.562485770544, 27782.056165674003, 2209.7402435956524, 1067.518502276611, 8659.440195887677, 1368.3773425093361, 857.8938128758269, 4281.16537801753, 1815.3461403964027, 1741.850220203227, 5756.346208485562, 3849.807823252818, 3698.0212412815886, 1324.1107329066456, 4096.158322044127, 1872.9568230596826, 1598.8857312596945, 847.568404436249, 3671.914486297691, 2511.751174247227, 2374.3945108893045 ], "var": [ 2663.7279416808765, 5244.60570993038, 3156.7862732693834, 3178.161860079516, 2691.823639995946, 2183.831274910857, 3042.8440660556157, 2914.3751691755047, 2325.012875799644, 2637.0029520048465, 3866.118820020968, 5165.130367073752, 3635.814275156436, 3261.3442165876495, 4133.3788145511, 3678.3413816615935, 5579.645035743808, 2633.507319303278, 2918.270682534486, 3374.963029652025, 3882.551834958247, 2339.2342229407404, 8415.697098007568, 2798.3080625012844 ], "zero": [ 0.056087959562116936, 0.009112174218422987, 0.0362095481960741, 0.1007229701970282, 0.003603012396689523, 0.08245946155340499, 0.07756062775821661, 0.08991931419364879, 0.04183092341656243, 0.004807714415624634, 0.021503386561183186, 0.055779465811999884, 0.07565793276102431, 0.010793538277816019, 0.010234726784858034, 0.06120889018022539, 0.011684827679529957, 0.05001943135538747, 0.018654685805641745, 0.032748588852281386, 0.03292379058355724, 0.039368188453227995, 0.006122025321560486, 0.032722842138546884 ] }, "crps": 30.76738591447845, "crpss": 0.07657055487027631, "rps": 0.39710564419821054, "rpss": 0.12360183201143538, "mean_bias_mm": 0.2755231323305824, "mean_mae_mm": 44.636147303055544, "mean_rmse_mm": 60.565199028363, "spread_error_ratio": 0.9867645065772291, "zero_fraction": 0.04007233443644289, "correlation": 0.28234270153093605, "pit_histogram": [ 0.08151, 0.10014, 0.10349, 0.11684, 0.12178, 0.106, 0.0942, 0.07961, 0.08583, 0.11061 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.11771112814684387 } }, "operational": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 22.81607592017109, 15.875981834955693, 50.274005607671775, 16.037055035876218, 23.613051448344436, 15.7945105921698, 38.922004732416006, 42.306560484323946 ], "crps_clim": [ 20.32105586449988, 16.40570046524331, 65.52791755840862, 17.64632053938275, 24.293868622000836, 16.66802739812226, 40.184015667195084, 32.98246918464377 ], "rps": [ 0.46290456690567744, 0.3638401673236064, 0.4353597202755351, 0.3455007508267061, 0.4425185229779474, 0.29408556293783344, 0.44300286991974464, 0.6336787461469996 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4122606865060767, 0.37346476193268074, 0.5449498617316163, 0.36687869557844566, 0.47023810687668466, 0.3514902720415714, 0.4617152805402287, 0.46890906592470627 ], "bias": [ -15.180308902302224, -3.6118814491420603, -66.01105963168315, -2.3406267390756943, 9.656119315859497, 13.214865445849998, -45.1302709352458, -51.63536752002304 ], "mae": [ 29.989084154168594, 18.4285694987522, 67.59661559420498, 19.882711676906617, 34.97137411364267, 23.024041166154376, 53.61284484243774, 55.171035569288556 ], "mse": [ 1529.526812629928, 561.2804550386082, 6506.476384517155, 961.6037882679822, 1761.3534913323056, 851.8692820253661, 4954.863636964816, 4982.50208274337 ], "var": [ 2712.410446246897, 2735.4279408610278, 5166.781526294882, 2366.813948812522, 2353.160891459176, 3553.591232035196, 3072.376822680985, 2110.0564553085087 ], "zero": [ 0.08632475537514171, 0.08454705430550957, 0.09416987242483899, 0.12925372690357417, 0.07473349465468765, 0.05486338577744813, 0.047261811688522976, 0.12795166030534805 ] }, "crps": 28.20490570699112, "crpss": 0.03585075434581819, "rps": 0.42761136341425626, "rpss": 0.008410611091633546, "mean_bias_mm": -20.12981630197031, "mean_mae_mm": 37.83453457694446, "mean_rmse_mm": 52.570757001301985, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0434085892878455, "zero_fraction": 0.08738822017938391, "correlation": 0.25350511734981973, "pit_histogram": [ 0.01343, 0.03496, 0.06105, 0.07924, 0.11178, 0.12492, 0.12288, 0.1346, 0.13728, 0.17986 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.42264874142714015 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 28.206545230676124, 15.616139023389065, 52.701629289287474, 22.25419711469823, 23.24183060588667, 15.923999345928447, 51.20058367043555, 24.482664796204208 ], "crps_clim": [ 24.012970318608165, 17.14717700571395, 95.49608165309667, 24.212333377463093, 25.06890034808142, 15.600720521826346, 60.26104362729821, 20.04862260959093 ], "rps": [ 0.47468970062084836, 0.3270507385628169, 0.18550035281537827, 0.36735115200695945, 0.4512773324396412, 0.3185671835576314, 0.41004490980391906, 0.4525598665288269 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.41878823842713037, 0.35324432725808413, 0.5497651995010865, 0.41409150307530557, 0.5005547552283075, 0.3283216384408885, 0.5179393125380852, 0.38569803603839053 ], "bias": [ -27.369844260698766, 4.019111589915179, -66.48717015489986, -7.402489467883252, 41.42255474451534, 12.962280741998002, -59.3977640835038, -23.165115500755913 ], "mae": [ 32.65044522461215, 18.510869444262784, 70.51968349305785, 28.863364099519572, 42.095208059846925, 20.593671869844943, 69.77066374781475, 32.07287888540778 ], "mse": [ 1678.5807155298512, 537.5689578249404, 7120.051856196612, 1807.840112483375, 2113.4760328162342, 600.0325566805121, 6809.705876825223, 1750.923970876388 ], "var": [ 3995.3419816146566, 3180.1685762468715, 8462.936318837452, 2885.8663697390484, 3329.2290232609, 3632.220470643103, 4525.033066272335, 2623.5903675526984 ], "zero": [ 0.07476059392938988, 0.07395974753225863, 0.01804394638981032, 0.06413323686631843, 0.06422678092782272, 0.04853043541237713, 0.017613813571167494, 0.08294284488675122 ] }, "crps": 29.20344863456322, "crpss": 0.17108613912532, "rps": 0.3733801545420027, "rpss": 0.138784844988603, "mean_bias_mm": -15.677304548914135, "mean_mae_mm": 39.384598103045846, "mean_rmse_mm": 52.93649506629752, "spread_error_ratio": 1.2065283956503356, "zero_fraction": 0.05552642493948698, "correlation": 0.6911398459455883, "pit_histogram": [ 0.02077, 0.04149, 0.06908, 0.09222, 0.13338, 0.13065, 0.12364, 0.14925, 0.12504, 0.11447 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.3528636346616116 } }, "full": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 26.294785693474825, 21.349527271127123, 23.51346839558368, 24.08888345401209, 89.91492902664262, 29.104605769645847, 31.50762897191797, 40.838503396946045, 15.904502511137009, 23.18774261710335, 36.550795325927254, 20.86393924390594, 16.223125156749216, 29.56324719125492, 35.03805677441513, 23.307551838808983, 21.160693504519454, 39.545482773094655, 24.87283547013965, 25.835293238657602, 19.23125346926585, 31.111470756528018, 23.801180289330194, 19.467389942060247, 21.654304596615262, 15.171407738069632, 48.19606690051271, 15.894314932382473, 24.631131924513696, 16.355550927389128, 36.6080938512254, 39.82408640612485 ], "crps_clim": [ 21.565188759301577, 23.38563063557986, 19.097928412475547, 27.65831750898805, 115.86467554318806, 32.608713982744845, 35.74981363535668, 35.27522856142174, 17.037873658289875, 19.249766823627166, 29.95460921092147, 21.757280334006133, 22.589855526865747, 32.8860898565903, 21.287962454192346, 23.34276551652251, 20.5096382411715, 27.15997168831795, 25.49780817078038, 22.130467654701782, 19.335150240563912, 30.517713481749208, 23.826246347839884, 21.865464318236576, 19.893432351136823, 17.03329139891581, 64.14883327049633, 18.974050124817815, 25.33605920687928, 16.45512833366636, 38.480365999726736, 31.353009520945946 ], "rps": [ 0.5145662220255621, 0.4292404147447704, 0.5348084689031797, 0.49948831672238697, 0.27702926892055907, 0.42209720638360115, 0.4034475874534634, 0.5733869160286857, 0.3826056562345408, 0.5040242622376688, 0.697688401981105, 0.36028612897152323, 0.3907575238789963, 0.38958558562355294, 0.7068773910428715, 0.43161811214171963, 0.3985695524535977, 0.7067117615770842, 0.46669212609739574, 0.48093133486754547, 0.3702881909813384, 0.49243283252829534, 0.4191938636617879, 0.4261241021248108, 0.454606569710641, 0.3356142198725705, 0.4269236873054714, 0.33467648684968554, 0.44461872492468046, 0.3022964707080999, 0.4353680912813104, 0.6145210077059641 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4235467576215105, 0.47608889223006146, 0.42116084841535095, 0.52922569582888, 0.5521940842175864, 0.48422399901825147, 0.4817361166669598, 0.48212565828300324, 0.39092541948658205, 0.43695066648742936, 0.5455763971634705, 0.37045590341108353, 0.4938985727810239, 0.45690686490267524, 0.44941552111033356, 0.42409929339583347, 0.4060824902077587, 0.5026173106347752, 0.49052948788469664, 0.41131287431461633, 0.38663843087009825, 0.4959596204449516, 0.4216770610806586, 0.46451823268332443, 0.4095379456154036, 0.3675043388775151, 0.5502738168335921, 0.3945497358652498, 0.47350515274771016, 0.3484831583622997, 0.46150350689172287, 0.4645838963389065 ], "bias": [ -19.27006042298568, 29.603821148481224, 32.59318453955211, 39.31854697072109, -113.17697692780975, -20.91946591655827, -19.482951492332997, -48.61833892666079, 4.658184712049521, 25.029616401011047, 62.75175611401308, 16.569457684586254, 27.78743627262038, -33.34756257422031, 56.084189438149544, -18.717106411405517, 4.483714587868094, 62.64511215376741, 29.186403364901803, 26.024387332337923, -10.481382583573762, -39.97420674598932, 27.319125607504965, 14.196321915973758, -10.5607903884353, 1.2490355470040073, -63.50045224208759, 2.5987836620780245, 15.126075623494875, 18.87215226714175, -41.62623679037639, -48.000017503902605 ], "mae": [ 35.220930612697835, 35.83933329610598, 37.39791813886776, 41.72747410047467, 114.09612420126207, 43.00774831561493, 43.193947891150465, 52.34348682121757, 24.30853941163566, 38.45495047162786, 62.82838768743733, 28.981076399117953, 30.482728330562324, 39.5916520443015, 56.46220574079958, 31.54189142468797, 30.57815355305984, 62.79482284880553, 42.10113268587549, 39.1695488058325, 23.63582104130105, 42.72833587038324, 39.687207741600275, 31.676455761630255, 28.561006764332372, 18.375860307373948, 65.15799588813489, 21.61021717914834, 36.88260268993237, 25.557514173028796, 51.09685717889569, 52.26684328749757 ], "mse": [ 2402.2641785247174, 1989.767836504248, 2238.727684607189, 2284.5849393481717, 18610.955689292026, 3208.0758863245296, 3409.6379991616727, 4620.296191692774, 954.5499681567562, 2358.50251067544, 4854.510645013937, 1606.6764047822167, 1317.2822286411797, 2786.855214663322, 4352.3858412529235, 1828.3383433848508, 1434.0291497066723, 5875.057705684042, 2823.689738067438, 2542.555284228391, 948.3430394343491, 2874.893717325632, 2417.7545952074324, 1628.780376058837, 1367.1713761809772, 539.3491369025352, 6105.481416604217, 998.4666684791956, 1965.82826949171, 998.750450598728, 4515.711778685277, 4505.659821063458 ], "var": [ 2539.8003493687193, 3251.054563375092, 2467.5056447983357, 2532.038090386096, 2956.0289771945204, 2131.95610112469, 2894.191885828519, 2859.9341103791617, 2177.1358949954843, 3194.0786929967003, 3305.041666261235, 3257.9971209763967, 2298.826766473372, 2553.368947312424, 2732.7912782976114, 2466.026607031145, 3648.5831639348385, 2917.360405399645, 2666.676437100624, 2369.933535913727, 3159.466330189785, 2149.054003825204, 4855.98124838794, 2094.1567460188685, 2695.7534128935517, 2743.7691465321896, 4843.276895060347, 2372.0224905911937, 2320.015965669598, 3592.696496952025, 2952.5422045845326, 2072.630297661956 ], "zero": [ 0.0976801093389293, 0.03351172043719043, 0.02329099332914187, 0.049975366198016485, 0.025533487289152956, 0.06515407892057003, 0.06080944626378121, 0.06967177218649317, 0.030226745082822186, 0.025580985599720964, 0.018799777782660045, 0.06748823699328801, 0.047376211748444585, 0.021091438731418007, 0.009011503447208406, 0.05410317661538133, 0.03803503740710056, 0.031806441106777814, 0.03290778072443579, 0.03257546787705779, 0.03572219270154625, 0.0251633644132461, 0.006249473111829008, 0.04914319432053969, 0.05330352765681294, 0.05607598602858087, 0.0675843711629138, 0.08695123437048898, 0.048563026880342336, 0.034647109604823284, 0.025398848343586043, 0.09441862979874935 ] }, "crps": 28.456620292471275, "crpss": 0.012167646661030762, "rps": 0.45709614018576455, "rpss": -0.011008491266670362, "mean_bias_mm": 0.26317988802870484, "mean_mae_mm": 41.4799615832623, "mean_rmse_mm": 56.003608724612796, "spread_error_ratio": 0.9525783551639172, "zero_fraction": 0.0443078354835328, "correlation": 0.11533368764664576, "pit_histogram": [ 0.11441, 0.11644, 0.09445, 0.08836, 0.09407, 0.08991, 0.09104, 0.10068, 0.09599, 0.11466 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.09236768574271158 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 18.187313822132666, 26.850851983281434, 17.780759456835, 20.573516991275014, 110.71626301320252, 21.940640865859844, 19.09339010117091, 58.05352791622613, 19.167497974292242, 16.971127013037, 36.153040860039034, 25.001289595552933, 19.73261771663036, 44.22563465504818, 34.43627943657103, 33.72678888412665, 18.883854937035483, 35.622622754728226, 22.39241123825813, 22.91462106501428, 18.076501615585773, 33.70437519595244, 26.98093760930362, 26.162828742840954, 26.728748255740342, 15.690949165947863, 51.99998384824311, 22.15065825719275, 26.30058396356195, 16.36865510902321, 49.365475958734336, 23.048238117576975 ], "crps_clim": [ 20.62823078391462, 22.736075489400832, 17.20303065300768, 33.38592024446952, 148.69890061775828, 32.54163468771625, 20.813924730768786, 45.34936829224909, 21.110172436165435, 18.987977073987647, 35.64746457072699, 24.18698188499711, 30.543634191772295, 49.7010744586202, 22.788748659461, 33.02631501609522, 18.025620044910095, 33.698138045350596, 26.182976675526973, 24.697762649323387, 18.323363286191857, 30.274060611645748, 36.95358378488871, 31.968592033538773, 23.529333965483502, 18.554147550975507, 95.7655520497254, 24.80422585413712, 28.59879576238074, 16.421943505646766, 59.22616150944826, 19.837161306589184 ], "rps": [ 0.37538255718508756, 0.4226362535648299, 0.3528500143841641, 0.3024051292225961, 0.1849071718080908, 0.2962276625944061, 0.3894484346937912, 0.6994389804083021, 0.37526825190831153, 0.3354152822054657, 0.5535877840297853, 0.3996276586841987, 0.32920399574232384, 0.43123225660428766, 0.6572529165337192, 0.4971722259898526, 0.3207708428582613, 0.5124347014886221, 0.36733298425652616, 0.3425521869063818, 0.33708760752330696, 0.5441015777363822, 0.21792957625909432, 0.42997556482701643, 0.4694050698056068, 0.3238297092325861, 0.1766375403585151, 0.3770089699536917, 0.46410974987680237, 0.3259357078703528, 0.4000038987815979, 0.4321556534403672 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4353624306832978, 0.4191800777990544, 0.33092642730556393, 0.5345989952281157, 0.5549256946518838, 0.4853155529512196, 0.4290652521208975, 0.49985640326148617, 0.40930380959521595, 0.37730746282751154, 0.5561589821998123, 0.3968450353921786, 0.5352098508957999, 0.5197317160936026, 0.4622154279575823, 0.47965872542692495, 0.3452359656196985, 0.510985845909633, 0.4364472915440719, 0.37533126250969556, 0.33575420241270676, 0.47704841054116015, 0.48221255024125415, 0.5432080506356914, 0.4191937836801347, 0.36236938480584985, 0.5586414801407072, 0.4345261685934756, 0.5204520422939962, 0.3377365051099261, 0.5222952003256466, 0.37908107264058183 ], "bias": [ 4.417662614135662, 32.91592993039475, 14.612058822573177, 35.962002395223564, -135.38372547751914, 17.339111777341977, 17.728226277199912, -71.28042709466389, -5.448311523750222, -6.231004630350865, 65.54343047783246, 27.14948444357183, 41.67980184085886, -55.984573791672915, 59.25906239278629, -42.627907507464975, 25.785171091411986, 55.41650102022352, 5.176652767076769, 2.653435459381751, -1.602057616373209, -42.46507377858829, 17.909049271396064, 44.2399137246443, -24.02474778654273, 7.862696273547489, -65.9572354314047, -3.5218244353549415, 46.928636641324246, 17.608502992103737, -57.832929014530805, -19.89137017969017 ], "mae": [ 27.818049354932082, 41.106206403783055, 25.65751299043588, 37.33221024739423, 136.63316238511916, 36.76381946170977, 28.679279123523774, 75.0395855138669, 27.51120444790578, 20.380392164744613, 65.54343047783246, 36.18534222623124, 41.75040802234747, 59.28381850162353, 59.88620629996552, 43.95496550466345, 32.60106378949856, 55.80039425678766, 34.43031504348941, 32.76802106433782, 21.96587074297789, 46.926821059662956, 40.59693442683772, 46.10415800998171, 30.475977684994756, 19.63471941998991, 70.1571162740285, 29.993737332891843, 47.22657752449082, 23.43876975287356, 68.0888392948471, 30.57845083822191 ], "mse": [ 1193.9023222129047, 2636.165881898304, 1058.5046634121175, 1787.0112440349371, 25183.905576501427, 2200.7412176311627, 1243.3087923900746, 7840.317315121349, 1291.7517339940512, 744.2842810386173, 4732.383162100896, 2064.0088028111304, 2070.0510176764474, 4982.467144820355, 4277.895797945766, 3157.94413750243, 1471.8895716360369, 4587.301434543249, 1881.8989440268408, 1716.4905071637897, 802.0211450514934, 3237.7447707235647, 2778.7567349161545, 2627.457525183203, 1487.026992567213, 585.1016992406583, 7009.5067095542845, 1805.0233683027734, 2594.430785582059, 769.0598271077141, 6464.902897804382, 1574.9334881542986 ], "var": [ 2587.506361682298, 5110.3669037053805, 3089.8062776278693, 3156.1396729343473, 3076.786146488881, 2166.282462672071, 3058.3685177184675, 3044.7906711308747, 2331.3740269823047, 2522.6584424736793, 3817.9578754544955, 4953.458786252153, 3614.1164068567405, 3215.4349162822523, 4016.1253694532606, 3797.620286743038, 5282.356774365711, 2640.8604159447827, 2906.9413236159885, 3317.006758739296, 3850.3317172203115, 2322.1084447076655, 7795.232240116188, 2691.6742630649996, 4034.351420238298, 3209.009528269047, 7823.935858003175, 2907.5903223648793, 3334.5248181922516, 3720.106673043872, 4286.332267174156, 2631.8140093660854 ], "zero": [ 0.04107238147592447, 0.00619194490732702, 0.027368161682961606, 0.0775034426794959, 0.003326149256599853, 0.06681251546672258, 0.05823881464123116, 0.0646799680491641, 0.02653588871507711, 0.002022616719318505, 0.014833632042968592, 0.0384772456687072, 0.053001695546268886, 0.0073837848078865155, 0.007379540728564127, 0.04515683404158252, 0.006819300492771482, 0.03568194640341425, 0.011355592820705394, 0.02552061391478746, 0.02082344088118506, 0.025727357480273598, 0.004174189682810352, 0.02548377763762672, 0.06358943248672277, 0.05954007308003327, 0.012936832175584289, 0.051700235077698824, 0.047124257403888176, 0.03850144156126195, 0.012913117955829077, 0.06600349727250487 ] }, "crps": 29.96881206625064, "crpss": 0.11548388739783477, "rps": 0.3951039973979476, "rpss": 0.12600790332458, "mean_bias_mm": 0.24800443578504616, "mean_mae_mm": 43.572292488812224, "mean_rmse_mm": 58.05659671084159, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0384545885089795, "zero_fraction": 0.03274624133615305, "correlation": 0.38750010268942775, "pit_histogram": [ 0.08139, 0.09716, 0.105, 0.11427, 0.12109, 0.10288, 0.09334, 0.09577, 0.09119, 0.0979 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.08649096721503644 } }, "distribution_full": { "ethiopia": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0009901987628709, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.006159316248913816 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9964229100609451, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.013329778019293578 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.8509095569883564, "area_mean_abs_log": 2.3975165127480724 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0298584493927005, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.10581208352561254 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0334365558762968, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.08300859066411098 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0154656862745098, "area_mean": 0.040213021259632796 } }, "ondj_domain": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0005873380082366, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.00398281974694655 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9938653360020896, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.013152978709315583 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.8625032178598244, "area_mean_abs_log": 1.4136495292962288 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0281173351096284, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.07238812841642814 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.025418319964236, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.07756969399649312 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.016666666666666663, "area_mean": 0.03274624133615305 } } } }, "sqrt_mvs": { "training": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 28.202176631360633, 19.244986174342305, 20.63384466834093, 20.880906191851764, 96.68799429687915, 32.25347746912502, 33.63823291495532, 44.83213069923423, 16.00100726399024, 21.74180949590004, 32.23902808928841, 20.324785698098133, 14.180375390346006, 33.91713482024666, 30.438654251896505, 24.845204970431453, 21.612303824494546, 35.50759523097063, 22.830388399334794, 22.729300422729665, 20.983387146882094, 35.89582489997619, 21.520130149340197, 19.26155183300285 ], "crps_clim": [ 22.51064113159216, 21.34178182693399, 17.109998394156545, 24.703975408517493, 122.2696629923497, 34.35098937579959, 37.99006225524478, 38.26557578034132, 17.080571907583543, 17.74984365790482, 26.57914721869575, 20.704500238866018, 20.302011916608773, 36.321622918341355, 19.07649303993666, 24.496312766356763, 20.70257424683409, 24.33223915547966, 23.533815992682083, 20.40174081976945, 20.534635777607914, 33.59238533966214, 24.32853834433991, 20.828282238756913 ], "rps": [ 0.5446648073708596, 0.41597484492316544, 0.49434576512657785, 0.47419363265788594, 0.2873468019745873, 0.45280873710209707, 0.40130230795865823, 0.6044005426428889, 0.3638723723655583, 0.4834251640234953, 0.6422415765484251, 0.3514479897679544, 0.33658083405543876, 0.4314721580315485, 0.6006327273436581, 0.44277401798523075, 0.4038445854923389, 0.6651821048891897, 0.44694378720694317, 0.44012085535395673, 0.3873435755487575, 0.5193348381762095, 0.3426425005533213, 0.4064054217987628 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.43940389525455414, 0.46658159808332234, 0.4078016609722334, 0.5058326556309144, 0.5395139575622566, 0.49558246733465433, 0.4802715225811077, 0.49404333105867937, 0.39146218082661743, 0.427716413607736, 0.5144532326749148, 0.3688788606345833, 0.45641496128233255, 0.4825359164875749, 0.4144568430509284, 0.43646088297845814, 0.42094222250140517, 0.4840252597737128, 0.47195865794782255, 0.4060822454153488, 0.4076181814082607, 0.4985033826792915, 0.4183880428687596, 0.4537770988799093 ], "bias": [ -23.958331661069813, 24.33078015644956, 26.94757788195386, 34.46196712922928, -120.54621817103036, -26.290493130776117, -25.513755601035072, -54.3107417998641, -1.321865472900855, 19.1740418881483, 57.41309632424691, 11.952451355741172, 22.837739214315093, -40.04399098759008, 50.160112138042436, -24.780742014819346, -0.8513427811863286, 57.40815029427731, 23.22687516507029, 19.66359706248027, -16.26823684455815, -46.48844116057374, 21.188829790896097, 9.321336513558036 ], "mae": [ 37.60818821296776, 32.8484300446357, 33.62676542410797, 37.71640334972048, 121.0826373829414, 46.52141687610551, 45.30956509120036, 56.94257881264782, 24.087224075397533, 36.18462951341627, 57.50995782855319, 28.158884508803016, 27.288992286983234, 44.77251958714609, 50.79096294888836, 33.51098074955241, 30.492500177778624, 57.703514101393964, 39.03047758247761, 34.5258943441693, 25.214652265679433, 48.19402617858477, 35.715145765277946, 31.366481993425356 ], "mse": [ 2725.4989750650457, 1775.2099192715707, 1826.1518901302481, 1874.2508700394453, 20414.03214166073, 3720.7994981985435, 3843.665724828199, 5229.48026093741, 964.2714113533685, 2094.670564834353, 4126.800370459229, 1463.907205412118, 1073.6232367320727, 3436.0174107128705, 3625.2555964831863, 2067.0609910441135, 1474.3696371461451, 5130.185426613632, 2457.6338195836274, 2082.8566364762573, 1108.991933741735, 3537.5769273152773, 2002.714913572695, 1646.626891208708 ], "var": [ 2267.797901438125, 3204.743912953646, 2353.3327779760025, 2332.7929602355966, 2845.995889742677, 1884.7110352183397, 2633.1137660177787, 2552.0989505394646, 2010.2350467014587, 3094.5064376659566, 3209.7291804633946, 3117.09976513973, 2111.916316441692, 2375.4871052701806, 2699.5305825001906, 2183.8404999305953, 3659.4452937038764, 2816.0160330208614, 2519.9961108301513, 2265.3497878487424, 2931.3666192989954, 1914.6757992622, 5245.861638960251, 1905.6723451589562 ], "zero": [ 0.0426537648498025, 0.009354007831720286, 0.006148631378617457, 0.010644677398972024, 0.016335151151471525, 0.021451565569698784, 0.0217630375677571, 0.02461599022850697, 0.012485514513434815, 0.01242080803320304, 0.007595423832287309, 0.027015925034954695, 0.011862235555321711, 0.008497927255230579, 0.002859636721091175, 0.020179845371857182, 0.01769369706648416, 0.011104670730670963, 0.01614988025453882, 0.016301886454667416, 0.012110453548046638, 0.0071936568815225855, 0.0009064188813133812, 0.017659144153625128 ] }, "crps": 28.766759622209076, "crpss": -0.0018789932940783682, "rps": 0.45580424787072954, "rpss": -0.005200588911495663, "mean_bias_mm": -0.0953168629581403, "mean_mae_mm": 42.34178454591059, "mean_rmse_mm": 57.62726938872653, "spread_error_ratio": 0.8970465005242361, "zero_fraction": 0.014791831261033178, "correlation": 0.08946030117034437, "pit_histogram": [ 0.11889, 0.13048, 0.09815, 0.08434, 0.07966, 0.08008, 0.08595, 0.09756, 0.10067, 0.12423 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.14853204633340722 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 18.043736537590558, 26.093442063220753, 17.31959442831015, 18.522580634859686, 116.31628002126432, 21.77892138019729, 17.613910160291432, 62.21472130398981, 19.95042450624637, 18.067798379150975, 33.214211874397, 23.713121750781998, 17.649660796968732, 50.40709436114761, 30.977820517295317, 37.200358963542044, 18.378590175839925, 32.59564329079831, 22.987301337514722, 21.651871808395665, 18.872415375024364, 37.458377107232096, 25.58065659016645, 24.105028793865714 ], "crps_clim": [ 20.16546441774922, 22.76670826790671, 16.94469548167337, 31.09433614253317, 155.68767899429207, 31.182604674802132, 20.063728628019742, 47.67425501377674, 21.053644879747303, 19.513270179453034, 33.170969511215155, 22.839448378093994, 28.243116177805117, 53.561271942272995, 21.37134058167887, 35.54201609868039, 17.47907876438195, 31.583296905530318, 26.57160898637116, 24.874887655242915, 18.60790218298319, 31.38851277619512, 38.48344091464168, 29.783372053088755 ], "rps": [ 0.3692380400378603, 0.4169615446082084, 0.34217958559858097, 0.28007847036003153, 0.19392735983748277, 0.2949611641064853, 0.3607451442080819, 0.7340220047183764, 0.38891920165988053, 0.35937355777768637, 0.5224319942081899, 0.3757695359024305, 0.301768911414663, 0.4807865949925754, 0.5967471892123568, 0.5155589807414298, 0.3169436126449242, 0.4842938966014696, 0.34100526298102035, 0.305441343150845, 0.34434453988584157, 0.5702726925437782, 0.20178884453833942, 0.40224357631632673 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4283784846339526, 0.42670630481309463, 0.3446648823501038, 0.5130077295664848, 0.5410158900803291, 0.48132609963069506, 0.42143417253271964, 0.499616375801894, 0.4182216041304011, 0.40244267787358307, 0.5388940330394029, 0.3853584884109886, 0.5182825813030848, 0.5208909812511145, 0.44508072206563115, 0.4785608793092128, 0.35798102791050807, 0.4969649369586475, 0.42935647251841336, 0.3854220274094116, 0.34929100974978367, 0.4752706362743161, 0.48976956652503323, 0.5267262488889791 ], "bias": [ 0.40207232891022, 28.327126893283797, 10.26604450977434, 33.01201756201799, -142.30416891215478, 14.052627279573345, 13.686088416396075, -75.76639383644248, -10.43130034674205, -11.993456995767524, 61.4973452333558, 23.925393495842997, 38.472534546078585, -62.039346704750486, 54.597804836331655, -47.87772460108889, 21.357832658946435, 51.46221184681899, -0.6500202457132453, -3.3704840016697477, -6.18272075585172, -47.81975885423032, 13.015677211210182, 40.52910305450304 ], "mae": [ 27.73441646674349, 40.04222076443616, 25.312699643143738, 34.70769273817515, 143.2579892757842, 36.40873208609459, 26.36962699280401, 78.94591915247025, 28.363685616327132, 22.187332481531723, 61.4973452333558, 34.06126422560941, 38.582539403406805, 65.48005314617329, 55.60039793326735, 48.51658311446677, 30.395185333756494, 52.06993270922747, 34.463988518941804, 30.17043992290263, 21.845824454334405, 50.73214009835443, 37.34662826080982, 43.290012775975285 ], "mse": [ 1242.9863963534067, 2634.0515147472966, 1025.5675674335876, 1554.2945193511346, 26928.97255533522, 2249.0130706853242, 1084.2742091649773, 8523.675013718132, 1379.4340983928873, 886.0455779412746, 4209.2397550352525, 1821.2461442144881, 1787.820461428996, 5964.0819766222385, 3789.6855167043636, 3690.797322375978, 1314.0856441733777, 4073.583486363456, 1922.6733351298803, 1562.3250323602015, 856.1757125345993, 3702.310560757212, 2325.635715611078, 2350.005648901261 ], "var": [ 2378.2523168086664, 5261.121896086988, 2930.452506142398, 2873.4299862450193, 3136.9120272632313, 1957.0122612672599, 2783.48747435666, 2613.371938726821, 2093.5491046012494, 2411.4941466466107, 3712.16127852795, 4989.08509479476, 3351.6128611981826, 3072.106827152978, 3982.8238583800403, 3362.0800337138485, 5650.162684951368, 2436.01718762604, 2711.684602688988, 3188.662738459423, 3621.8961903456507, 2043.3536137912113, 8830.496762533881, 2572.894140761791 ], "zero": [ 0.0011154788011475665, 0.0, 0.0031376971258712675, 0.008009497748098069, 0.0006924360930725534, 0.01252043734384233, 0.004379490578714158, 0.006410669988748323, 0.003975013527641782, 0.0, 0.00020882988417586802, 0.001949950189892532, 0.002441664152968902, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002158190571201671, 0.0, 0.00118592042491667, 6.975806562410502e-05, 0.002566160347199959, 0.0002790509092893919, 0.0016745636375474604, 0.0, 0.001733103644098427 ] }, "crps": 30.4463984232538, "crpss": 0.08620443477606565, "rps": 0.39582512700195266, "rpss": 0.1264278883550669, "mean_bias_mm": -0.15964564089032626, "mean_mae_mm": 44.47427709783718, "mean_rmse_mm": 60.16573666248078, "spread_error_ratio": 0.9713081547353001, "zero_fraction": 0.0022711630430854598, "correlation": 0.29401179940371586, "pit_histogram": [ 0.10045, 0.10158, 0.0977, 0.1019, 0.1093, 0.10113, 0.09527, 0.08548, 0.09135, 0.11583 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.06038864563626134 } }, "operational": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 22.553644158307165, 15.409153636603167, 51.079935161140305, 15.423279652163076, 23.32706249691638, 15.231472380270285, 39.49588536323512, 42.51463322483117 ], "crps_clim": [ 20.32105586449988, 16.40570046524331, 65.52791755840862, 17.64632053938275, 24.293868622000836, 16.66802739812226, 40.184015667195084, 32.98246918464377 ], "rps": [ 0.45989797505340707, 0.3563742247250871, 0.4407609446506008, 0.331612989472078, 0.43693995931905244, 0.28410606973453406, 0.4449843986877353, 0.6330709802435673 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4122606865060767, 0.37346476193268074, 0.5449498617316163, 0.36687869557844566, 0.47023810687668466, 0.3514902720415714, 0.4617152805402287, 0.46890906592470627 ], "bias": [ -15.422761920281186, -3.7064871110969126, -66.09877808375066, -2.282254558001143, 9.078761062680346, 12.238877554558371, -45.93881743091865, -51.39693937365785 ], "mae": [ 29.772161992093316, 18.434160952167588, 67.62343971592533, 19.864958868013307, 35.05145367106908, 22.445904378635205, 53.82841289570423, 54.944732594696745 ], "mse": [ 1517.448756486172, 559.5288621714577, 6495.452939285638, 962.376372742119, 1761.53978323059, 806.2737728971277, 4997.252607270198, 4940.927328045569 ], "var": [ 2507.492070295343, 2468.1502577176866, 5162.720827708846, 2136.478011592301, 2135.4183983035036, 3352.3921466993274, 2876.5761602875978, 1857.9986148275766 ], "zero": [ 0.019373850475960925, 0.01407158035213404, 0.029231231113130182, 0.04262854166895171, 0.016944735402091134, 0.013708282316709277, 0.008429971204514731, 0.033610998935239625 ] }, "crps": 28.129383259183335, "crpss": 0.038432394286056826, "rps": 0.4234684427357578, "rpss": 0.01801764340033385, "mean_bias_mm": -20.44104998255846, "mean_mae_mm": 37.7456531335381, "mean_rmse_mm": 52.48904697902324, "spread_error_ratio": 1.010301061353658, "zero_fraction": 0.02224989893359145, "correlation": 0.25512058935059806, "pit_histogram": [ 0.01512, 0.04374, 0.05668, 0.07181, 0.10478, 0.11919, 0.12003, 0.13511, 0.14411, 0.18943 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.42529922110561336 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 27.870478332784355, 14.872756485838426, 53.7973587923281, 21.688262121940543, 22.47066863641599, 15.208635485898197, 52.306714559208274, 23.972546509902912 ], "crps_clim": [ 24.012970318608165, 17.14717700571395, 95.49608165309667, 24.212333377463093, 25.06890034808142, 15.600720521826346, 60.26104362729821, 20.04862260959093 ], "rps": [ 0.4790512032899581, 0.321425797882241, 0.19547850140311854, 0.3634156704659861, 0.4403015263752433, 0.3113146309540672, 0.4207553537102686, 0.4512718674583736 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.41878823842713037, 0.35324432725808413, 0.5497651995010865, 0.41409150307530557, 0.5005547552283075, 0.3283216384408885, 0.5179393125380852, 0.38569803603839053 ], "bias": [ -27.23333776692709, 3.8218708051484724, -66.74307727573684, -7.569274084761188, 41.19012417193262, 12.709954070077217, -60.69428062280653, -22.85409360568957 ], "mae": [ 32.5168075463123, 18.383178334213888, 70.62621184740848, 28.83693130873592, 41.87576102521154, 20.40762190913281, 70.52663312687129, 31.785319871061574 ], "mse": [ 1662.3640326067716, 531.1083371614027, 7152.757956206999, 1807.956433918005, 2095.9633152164174, 590.5552875404046, 6957.361242836524, 1724.3783416223357 ], "var": [ 3765.4269424826707, 2943.504086967352, 8936.914273201372, 2648.5864203657907, 3081.4056963702396, 3424.3159114277305, 4400.763413136813, 2341.1078992078033 ], "zero": [ 0.0062476255373772925, 0.005157486825778735, 0.0012896145895422474, 0.008623088199040558, 0.0055671925013791495, 0.00396663094497441, 0.00017102067621969732, 0.0031731228583704524 ] }, "crps": 29.0234276155396, "crpss": 0.1761958753001378, "rps": 0.3728768189424071, "rpss": 0.13994580719067873, "mean_bias_mm": -15.921514288595365, "mean_mae_mm": 39.36980812111848, "mean_rmse_mm": 53.05945361939385, "spread_error_ratio": 1.1834148545059435, "zero_fraction": 0.0042744727665853174, "correlation": 0.6930366908261112, "pit_histogram": [ 0.02107, 0.05236, 0.06805, 0.07861, 0.12708, 0.12303, 0.12847, 0.1526, 0.13482, 0.1139 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.3598109611612659 } }, "full": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 25.850088296798095, 20.990659214731735, 23.00315696269425, 23.68064391027763, 88.9042940882028, 29.622851185728294, 31.597292880942422, 41.04532501813891, 15.735417527376505, 22.832898767759172, 36.22865151901837, 20.443078527262234, 16.00922419589053, 30.25125151920976, 34.27903696178212, 23.34663402219216, 20.973612786648275, 39.1390323127738, 24.97460231506177, 25.328680451415348, 19.268534536598253, 31.86983939430755, 23.19395738003433, 19.302829927051945, 21.42294663156363, 14.774687696706682, 48.86628279784518, 15.420384658507846, 24.363642191826436, 15.85756922846387, 37.157804022212794, 39.9203899960556 ], "crps_clim": [ 21.565188759301577, 23.38563063557986, 19.097928412475547, 27.65831750898805, 115.86467554318806, 32.608713982744845, 35.74981363535668, 35.27522856142174, 17.037873658289875, 19.249766823627166, 29.95460921092147, 21.757280334006133, 22.589855526865747, 32.8860898565903, 21.287962454192346, 23.34276551652251, 20.5096382411715, 27.15997168831795, 25.49780817078038, 22.130467654701782, 19.335150240563912, 30.517713481749208, 23.826246347839884, 21.865464318236576, 19.893432351136823, 17.03329139891581, 64.14883327049633, 18.974050124817815, 25.33605920687928, 16.45512833366636, 38.480365999726736, 31.353009520945946 ], "rps": [ 0.5081329676409198, 0.422727251883201, 0.5289835071801535, 0.4935192117539227, 0.2827203071784346, 0.4246436884177448, 0.4062785981403043, 0.5805388587791795, 0.38066500344942217, 0.5021214591574507, 0.6899488184024525, 0.35582909649697586, 0.3837359503070847, 0.3962457289292333, 0.6941328165331953, 0.43355878780381363, 0.39306497579720007, 0.699403352249287, 0.46889911790629824, 0.4727850202104016, 0.372704478253886, 0.503729755161999, 0.4089735949041445, 0.41507926627391145, 0.4501442662199292, 0.332438383507228, 0.4330582332713885, 0.32961329422735, 0.442424065817248, 0.2969104751685575, 0.439788076761867, 0.6181888631277804 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4235467576215105, 0.47608889223006146, 0.42116084841535095, 0.52922569582888, 0.5521940842175864, 0.48422399901825147, 0.4817361166669598, 0.48212565828300324, 0.39092541948658205, 0.43695066648742936, 0.5455763971634705, 0.37045590341108353, 0.4938985727810239, 0.45690686490267524, 0.44941552111033356, 0.42409929339583347, 0.4060824902077587, 0.5026173106347752, 0.49052948788469664, 0.41131287431461633, 0.38663843087009825, 0.4959596204449516, 0.4216770610806586, 0.46451823268332443, 0.4095379456154036, 0.3675043388775151, 0.5502738168335921, 0.3945497358652498, 0.47350515274771016, 0.3484831583622997, 0.46150350689172287, 0.4645838963389065 ], "bias": [ -18.97227550373611, 29.222295056434533, 32.005124943103525, 39.25387087046916, -112.5636259869223, -21.02573988064279, -19.624481028418995, -48.562141348105534, 4.133733900326267, 24.134872264548896, 62.142881364591354, 16.611485230011574, 27.963285277111407, -34.3438691606208, 55.31887444298527, -18.975129591379307, 4.155212887383469, 62.31161851200544, 28.597245955254433, 25.037061557101936, -10.731181069543155, -40.566995563900115, 26.31933656715797, 14.1748596696147, -10.742650563032624, 1.138786771953022, -63.71677786497236, 2.570526274218953, 14.723055434369213, 18.29678373649077, -42.34476655612874, -47.79008296313099 ], "mae": [ 34.68238460610448, 35.54777954143138, 36.90419685676426, 41.64090098278769, 113.48733845715284, 43.411129857909664, 43.45288510167572, 52.240997815273055, 24.15850743005458, 38.28576934577059, 62.219496733428414, 29.01461309750083, 30.662801634516185, 40.16999765820397, 55.711705132028285, 31.55080446822051, 30.521326140096882, 62.462632542357525, 42.0484179835276, 38.41788425853696, 23.728259953333012, 43.197973880579475, 38.91403518849612, 31.38124645614645, 28.36486909492001, 18.342576696928855, 65.28573853354212, 21.561026422307886, 36.90063523087784, 25.157942070788838, 51.385354628968386, 52.07696002318982 ], "mse": [ 2335.5572311789388, 1946.8839211639752, 2190.088426316298, 2267.798130556683, 18460.3451553864, 3237.2239911476813, 3448.167295402862, 4582.307496320396, 944.7040242980651, 2324.0665447411343, 4777.574501410175, 1618.2787491474887, 1335.3491589635692, 2867.341407615336, 4268.392604539351, 1824.9300957593798, 1425.3542578599718, 5800.117390327238, 2813.7722850521013, 2476.8378857163943, 955.6722273090767, 2928.433101641833, 2315.4051600386692, 1601.3675108248115, 1355.1660262958776, 537.5067462561275, 6123.3123372711425, 997.0837897402188, 1963.5954996281366, 961.5556592987523, 4575.464873550129, 4476.622054772007 ], "var": [ 2310.0980755579494, 3191.2832224268464, 2339.4305492167337, 2347.333458309149, 3120.1679476437503, 1940.094898379674, 2724.0668518553234, 2652.638766556549, 2036.8885226259772, 3028.438493889684, 3185.748953647959, 3078.342763259422, 2135.5341650101195, 2398.493949360275, 2654.037821803643, 2283.5401797848303, 3577.652165030966, 2802.7987240617335, 2529.9389281742124, 2268.175298305797, 2979.5859994768066, 1964.3524148323297, 4950.634681176491, 1916.9988149406797, 2540.792509028136, 2558.091360408361, 4773.004125111089, 2218.1038986922254, 2173.1623077043955, 3496.1125369425317, 2786.0336002342565, 1870.0129434406913 ], "zero": [ 0.025276496865630126, 0.003206436950913975, 0.0025734620956676764, 0.005882923528832056, 0.012179980161892121, 0.010511770277127509, 0.013384579145816628, 0.01369246675723897, 0.0059613553022694644, 0.007080962283871364, 0.0037164289386407575, 0.015056448706252223, 0.005160690414441491, 0.004195456656428174, 0.00016060770670602153, 0.01007293683189849, 0.00850902568786131, 0.005514361553394752, 0.009156573160414964, 0.009914958389661587, 0.0059612226082299755, 0.003666570929612308, 0.0002940315675230709, 0.008971772977302405, 0.010868942519994266, 0.007569642533051332, 0.019334686312308953, 0.02839159681168961, 0.00950549950659904, 0.008149141792148203, 0.003979746860993496, 0.022237687068264178 ] }, "crps": 28.301728153908698, "crpss": 0.01754451377235311, "rps": 0.4550308522159989, "rpss": -0.006440472657947449, "mean_bias_mm": -0.05777519891880978, "mean_mae_mm": 41.34025586948188, "mean_rmse_mm": 55.82793754573349, "spread_error_ratio": 0.9330658636025091, "zero_fraction": 0.009379326965708642, "correlation": 0.12346942207459245, "pit_histogram": [ 0.12983, 0.11552, 0.0863, 0.08051, 0.0879, 0.08611, 0.09143, 0.10246, 0.10176, 0.11819 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.13550065855083443 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 17.58592555801115, 26.13213271451159, 17.199010582038365, 20.14878009530128, 108.91551504308444, 22.394604288327407, 18.462480237561028, 58.41337964674663, 19.11300390787017, 16.91001231173696, 36.04307449318403, 24.33109300850727, 19.58733341786932, 45.82963315326613, 33.61094393495635, 33.836274207603815, 18.547008150994355, 35.472894707630616, 22.842746747052175, 22.34522052708072, 17.86401832937006, 34.53175178787812, 26.43571617984763, 26.220050544035637, 26.385423436215724, 14.94750921415135, 53.13363378876195, 21.630335285597138, 25.68758915849475, 15.690344028879823, 50.61466816253783, 22.591032991235316 ], "crps_clim": [ 20.62823078391462, 22.736075489400832, 17.20303065300768, 33.38592024446952, 148.69890061775828, 32.54163468771625, 20.813924730768786, 45.34936829224909, 21.110172436165435, 18.987977073987647, 35.64746457072699, 24.18698188499711, 30.543634191772295, 49.7010744586202, 22.788748659461, 33.02631501609522, 18.025620044910095, 33.698138045350596, 26.182976675526973, 24.697762649323387, 18.323363286191857, 30.274060611645748, 36.95358378488871, 31.968592033538773, 23.529333965483502, 18.554147550975507, 95.7655520497254, 24.80422585413712, 28.59879576238074, 16.421943505646766, 59.22616150944826, 19.837161306589184 ], "rps": [ 0.3678576683253486, 0.42078459300933657, 0.34565577793813207, 0.2951233525133072, 0.18737839959489927, 0.29126090347586614, 0.3814886140175933, 0.7124590499192227, 0.37839315031876386, 0.3417659425710101, 0.5421285785225384, 0.3969117778341614, 0.3196458554548, 0.4470851351924031, 0.6425355129592231, 0.5064007440456898, 0.3191003700681698, 0.5073080953340117, 0.371863933889009, 0.333150420458684, 0.33709476106111347, 0.561476039687023, 0.21739208534302595, 0.4181323270114233, 0.4738252721263179, 0.3162165905480457, 0.1839361132199706, 0.37176771555973304, 0.4525250219258835, 0.3188785627837783, 0.410502113206248, 0.4332374801395596 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4353624306832978, 0.4191800777990544, 0.33092642730556393, 0.5345989952281157, 0.5549256946518838, 0.4853155529512196, 0.4290652521208975, 0.49985640326148617, 0.40930380959521595, 0.37730746282751154, 0.5561589821998123, 0.3968450353921786, 0.5352098508957999, 0.5197317160936026, 0.4622154279575823, 0.47965872542692495, 0.3452359656196985, 0.510985845909633, 0.4364472915440719, 0.37533126250969556, 0.33575420241270676, 0.47704841054116015, 0.48221255024125415, 0.5432080506356914, 0.4191937836801347, 0.36236938480584985, 0.5586414801407072, 0.4345261685934756, 0.5204520422939962, 0.3377365051099261, 0.5222952003256466, 0.37908107264058183 ], "bias": [ 4.204723490761547, 31.566281264121887, 14.0728481469515, 36.40969016568737, -134.77014583248828, 17.65560052941138, 18.152544028893324, -70.73492715564936, -5.936374408803668, -7.807377866020557, 64.95915596778364, 26.969850628545547, 42.24886472432193, -57.395194961692006, 58.60255931083729, -42.74671357939196, 24.671378306885796, 55.60271074671201, 4.242427835017954, 1.2280634771920766, -1.9272914353246404, -43.00280218988693, 16.54350870152954, 43.845731178475575, -23.91208892206555, 7.584052020941501, -66.72096478940244, -3.66881730412266, 46.770425819150404, 17.379410532117024, -59.19491305181863, -19.576440735898537 ], "mae": [ 27.557661132933212, 40.048121229764, 25.285621196672707, 37.71921614055413, 136.01215944392132, 37.341353573174565, 28.861759201427112, 74.61968798648073, 27.53299305707288, 20.66806444005657, 64.95915596778364, 36.145349485147065, 42.28486534537499, 60.495314276943155, 59.24485536062395, 43.92750091270555, 32.42770574094558, 55.989946039846494, 34.844785307045335, 31.884468116716484, 21.993892979553245, 47.246015951039716, 39.60303189967886, 45.773391953934144, 30.357060756851958, 19.39091394835515, 70.70687983661134, 29.92069445321984, 47.07784384772897, 23.27674709827659, 69.02668257414913, 30.30053258115878 ], "mse": [ 1179.3697231636568, 2503.6410291765283, 1030.2173075240228, 1819.6504455961567, 24926.559155093175, 2238.765729007217, 1262.3777731031353, 7733.858565802956, 1293.923483848843, 762.4645998276388, 4656.993239067995, 2069.5209859693064, 2119.2034339254824, 5164.6535667561275, 4228.656918886974, 3147.713203162006, 1450.7679138408184, 4572.9817817104895, 1923.4702449687982, 1665.736715616783, 810.0432995032552, 3267.7441605613667, 2641.645595359943, 2598.38312967372, 1473.093713281446, 571.7424334326286, 7118.335979532032, 1801.4660873931743, 2583.391316750154, 759.7969924034217, 6640.583040780209, 1550.4990588388666 ], "var": [ 2336.8718537081104, 5154.381874135708, 2893.6841846199286, 2877.8960646528785, 3384.07072400512, 1961.1189296394855, 2833.510215708328, 2794.035910852608, 2133.08578534794, 2350.971866339304, 3698.798071263264, 4769.426385422311, 3358.3273199113714, 3059.9872143715334, 3888.477398556271, 3532.714469975284, 5356.426941668045, 2469.761568153327, 2745.1722063123398, 3178.3101994344756, 3644.476038756209, 2083.0796664551062, 8149.572063287472, 2492.6403100714674, 3797.29542441319, 3002.900133636754, 7974.05073270958, 2714.3869163109493, 3138.848130307245, 3564.0783828431704, 4105.302535375952, 2369.3468734645176 ], "zero": [ 0.0004185191227142438, 0.0, 0.002231592789016414, 0.0036951452036859123, 0.00020785032426858294, 0.007377873270214799, 0.001743028861991214, 0.0039059062127788425, 0.0027199911062893807, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004181810973834946, 0.001813904087678341, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007669089016977562, 0.0, 0.0006278678527104056, 0.0, 0.0010411600970198108, 0.0, 0.0012559952693982775, 0.0, 0.0006935305035755627, 0.004541419978915965, 0.004065371171352104, 0.0008483868670167659, 0.0054541589508739574, 0.003110971002356246, 0.0030436350498414364, 0.0001026199734031385, 0.0015371134191087855 ] }, "crps": 29.795410613760595, "crpss": 0.1206017538763926, "rps": 0.39385256118919665, "rpss": 0.12877615007263854, "mean_bias_mm": -0.1463820424133715, "mean_mae_mm": 43.5163834948671, "mean_rmse_mm": 57.97824231542551, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0195443639800874, "zero_fraction": 0.0016131603472903573, "correlation": 0.393292922366428, "pit_histogram": [ 0.09908, 0.09963, 0.09371, 0.10082, 0.11344, 0.09898, 0.09701, 0.0993, 0.09795, 0.10008 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.028676268472612634 } }, "distribution_full": { "ethiopia": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9998343230231159, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.001786143268279514 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9808470043045702, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.05533354900986189 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9527455092984811, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.5021440598289014 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0093610669271198, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.09245121500945248 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0307056872411546, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.07674251856806406 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": 0.005284512741808654 } }, "ondj_domain": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9990325855419432, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.002036183803394152 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9816815929444178, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.043414631146606215 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9825983851220261, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.1060302662781345 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0067812842031978, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.06329079034343742 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0253286711622716, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.07247234293481161 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": 0.0016131603472903575 } } } }, "pt": { "training": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 28.643354919637154, 18.828604629480687, 20.038700914501646, 20.25762486881905, 97.94237135771169, 32.74359402130889, 33.787582417976274, 45.683328273145165, 16.14715406630962, 21.730378267003182, 31.51842297543126, 20.242102201884894, 14.09681589179596, 34.7989296105633, 29.69040436259683, 25.460122418438, 22.270412548380985, 35.24401700935093, 22.472780616624764, 22.056354276010772, 21.66253104619881, 36.97932670620243, 21.646718814889137, 19.348834214565862 ], "crps_clim": [ 22.51064113159216, 21.34178182693399, 17.109998394156545, 24.703975408517493, 122.2696629923497, 34.35098937579959, 37.99006225524478, 38.26557578034132, 17.080571907583543, 17.74984365790482, 26.57914721869575, 20.704500238866018, 20.302011916608773, 36.321622918341355, 19.07649303993666, 24.496312766356763, 20.70257424683409, 24.33223915547966, 23.533815992682083, 20.40174081976945, 20.534635777607914, 33.59238533966214, 24.32853834433991, 20.828282238756913 ], "rps": [ 0.5505561864498688, 0.42272718548194727, 0.48422316978740154, 0.460179693791282, 0.2950255816572989, 0.462265817522716, 0.4151508856962857, 0.6220946958129477, 0.3685499417206828, 0.4871227650742375, 0.6229262968174772, 0.3508369483538946, 0.3434344926689769, 0.4502132066531655, 0.5895363728217351, 0.45123405646756876, 0.4133234243337214, 0.6576867150063054, 0.44179188433872807, 0.4273006655606249, 0.40238506341733293, 0.5437904549503194, 0.3451255680042326, 0.4220952619942602 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.43940389525455414, 0.46658159808332234, 0.4078016609722334, 0.5058326556309144, 0.5395139575622566, 0.49558246733465433, 0.4802715225811077, 0.49404333105867937, 0.39146218082661743, 0.427716413607736, 0.5144532326749148, 0.3688788606345833, 0.45641496128233255, 0.4825359164875749, 0.4144568430509284, 0.43646088297845814, 0.42094222250140517, 0.4840252597737128, 0.47195865794782255, 0.4060822454153488, 0.4076181814082607, 0.4985033826792915, 0.4183880428687596, 0.4537770988799093 ], "bias": [ -23.95373938509244, 24.393419436986193, 26.5131660708869, 34.3304831954741, -121.32583402696696, -26.56195957877412, -25.207713522250284, -54.18601156626926, -1.6964158288579874, 19.635588988217286, 57.806512251339775, 11.762347181174908, 22.457671206118274, -40.43703659910007, 49.910119862120155, -25.507364639586807, -0.36431476632233845, 58.451488526502736, 22.976378232650752, 18.97571914618515, -16.521302204676626, -47.088231734631435, 24.514854075803903, 8.655008085956267 ], "mae": [ 37.54960847129708, 32.829079796041995, 33.31884604138179, 37.62397443279758, 121.86659589879393, 46.859355428192465, 45.173539982717806, 56.939275306051364, 24.17280309684438, 37.21145051048068, 57.90390242999874, 28.451896703719708, 27.23480018190015, 45.15320996682006, 50.55165121001412, 33.92625849517687, 31.05643879679413, 58.74764939387617, 39.248617464667184, 34.00750895722895, 25.34253384270561, 48.731399270708316, 38.13734023362926, 31.202684499380087 ], "mse": [ 2727.0222287245597, 1791.902249901006, 1806.644736905432, 1862.790905691453, 20722.326436133488, 3754.9236369767027, 3795.2913250908387, 5231.778770094049, 973.4406608582959, 2218.741070499825, 4194.550272755131, 1476.7438804908118, 1076.7394428711357, 3483.312657454488, 3631.9578500234857, 2099.7103610569425, 1520.4767399626512, 5363.903537142793, 2481.3727599918643, 2042.5934280732379, 1120.5546789470477, 3613.2841666248714, 2286.4102876194825, 1641.5071259406106 ], "var": [ 2349.2914612348104, 3937.9606024084705, 2458.167844736122, 2406.6495683474786, 2888.475097014776, 1952.554122889767, 2830.267489041479, 2839.1047293059, 2146.55625647117, 3507.1611433197204, 3791.009081913371, 3266.986570407892, 2123.5511947565396, 2644.2175211835643, 2941.878763379618, 2209.862048547266, 4362.6168297543845, 3252.1894992671196, 2800.50542173517, 2395.2536889164785, 3193.741736216655, 2081.599520494165, 8282.312352193216, 1901.169598861551 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00042937246861169943, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004263336225917233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00015937118772514544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008557060912034227, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 28.887102767867805, "crpss": -0.0060702637467060505, "rps": 0.4595656805992922, "rpss": -0.013495804262306565, "mean_bias_mm": -0.10279864971299683, "mean_mae_mm": 42.635017517134095, "mean_rmse_mm": 58.06532930308979, "spread_error_ratio": 0.9469680934349541, "zero_fraction": 7.794930708883295e-05, "correlation": 0.08077740103971058, "pit_histogram": [ 0.14315, 0.11505, 0.08995, 0.07716, 0.0764, 0.07718, 0.08721, 0.10181, 0.10909, 0.12299 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.18419649719951064 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 17.801832085025737, 25.85862698335484, 17.006721647276688, 18.332133975247668, 119.29384366473982, 21.9286230928406, 17.523146509778748, 62.956777887702515, 20.230709164755314, 18.36808177599467, 32.86282611845181, 23.34170318228486, 17.86081182096961, 51.505514067966736, 30.458585822013884, 37.87917659864143, 18.573157816910044, 32.46520781493833, 23.43202013734418, 21.446174801862647, 18.903486875056917, 38.59742475355127, 26.463910084929186, 23.880256639520287 ], "crps_clim": [ 20.16546441774922, 22.76670826790671, 16.94469548167337, 31.09433614253317, 155.68767899429207, 31.182604674802132, 20.063728628019742, 47.67425501377674, 21.053644879747303, 19.513270179453034, 33.170969511215155, 22.839448378093994, 28.243116177805117, 53.561271942272995, 21.37134058167887, 35.54201609868039, 17.47907876438195, 31.583296905530318, 26.57160898637116, 24.874887655242915, 18.60790218298319, 31.38851277619512, 38.48344091464168, 29.783372053088755 ], "rps": [ 0.36501439346061904, 0.41563657705185003, 0.3380208580684262, 0.27423211626898486, 0.2005407443299607, 0.29085534588537915, 0.3625889781314201, 0.7506325114971181, 0.39340532701743264, 0.3660637341705198, 0.5084258112350568, 0.37203101857225185, 0.2983651745845594, 0.5003816600458374, 0.591161204032209, 0.5284005209388569, 0.3188545184381487, 0.478970117449579, 0.34940552736720104, 0.30142506624751375, 0.3458818927889398, 0.5898976901250456, 0.2087639103243187, 0.3946067111942452 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4283784846339526, 0.42670630481309463, 0.3446648823501038, 0.5130077295664848, 0.5410158900803291, 0.48132609963069506, 0.42143417253271964, 0.499616375801894, 0.4182216041304011, 0.40244267787358307, 0.5388940330394029, 0.3853584884109886, 0.5182825813030848, 0.5208909812511145, 0.44508072206563115, 0.4785608793092128, 0.35798102791050807, 0.4969649369586475, 0.42935647251841336, 0.3854220274094116, 0.34929100974978367, 0.4752706362743161, 0.48976956652503323, 0.5267262488889791 ], "bias": [ 0.25791643755687665, 29.35450216586989, 9.720702128472807, 33.4352819759025, -144.21789551836113, 14.157862077392666, 13.741370234677767, -75.84448215806391, -10.96271533129665, -12.994584784568513, 61.561386763200225, 24.317402583448015, 38.98647787948006, -62.5856797418564, 54.00991722045761, -48.09894450330769, 22.3342517193506, 51.526502297983306, -1.4610355890708417, -4.405499922663491, -6.562366784555822, -48.63326873779038, 19.371021269433367, 40.201686429441594 ], "mae": [ 27.61739286336492, 40.71040389390288, 25.09065954805717, 35.112711798974445, 145.20410840283708, 36.526828976422564, 26.43202126054332, 79.06988914397324, 28.667733756191918, 22.59019960690808, 61.561386763200225, 34.52274802680092, 39.1292805122568, 65.98494596571494, 55.04041437862392, 48.721903679479894, 31.449438863290787, 52.17032112380053, 34.83191867374912, 29.518370120904628, 21.884039302655697, 51.41345596993796, 41.765427341285246, 42.89118697457818 ], "mse": [ 1236.0380446658264, 2718.693361508436, 1008.0726790092727, 1581.1355958065335, 27740.057666121746, 2264.6210672718203, 1087.3922166131063, 8541.337438325632, 1406.4250244407672, 902.0539644577035, 4217.465465944533, 1852.0280493343732, 1832.4328200833004, 6043.730648727773, 3744.2380272812416, 3703.7174382152007, 1393.9706103369926, 4095.502376231758, 1961.516802327303, 1530.6048503826953, 865.6791009245843, 3790.004708954757, 2799.167095564789, 2310.4253314836365 ], "var": [ 2263.204706258783, 6737.006696119989, 2900.0762932296966, 2773.069278041589, 2987.0594316472916, 1888.1102905883472, 2678.9302070095764, 2559.615074029229, 2033.8745945876592, 2477.380633881531, 4140.457913978254, 5305.688047242855, 3294.2152799743367, 3367.685469135491, 4059.0534136281863, 3378.9513717816917, 6662.536017609399, 2519.085938523894, 2746.9341595454584, 3288.2263164514547, 3642.1417852108348, 1975.4865138708196, 15000.076532327765, 2573.5503517381176 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 30.707114721714913, "crpss": 0.07837948963794361, "rps": 0.3976483920510614, "rpss": 0.12240400661945783, "mean_bias_mm": -0.1162579953694814, "mean_mae_mm": 44.91278278947726, "mean_rmse_mm": 60.76810785821162, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0147074566659406, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.2773720570114644, "pit_histogram": [ 0.12602, 0.09606, 0.08526, 0.09113, 0.10181, 0.0971, 0.09747, 0.08917, 0.09682, 0.11916 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.09398241934626111 } }, "operational": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 22.60274721406231, 15.537775584530037, 51.88206958621514, 15.323551953392633, 23.490318022603823, 15.323110816328558, 40.25717356438504, 43.07944769837953 ], "crps_clim": [ 20.32105586449988, 16.40570046524331, 65.52791755840862, 17.64632053938275, 24.293868622000836, 16.66802739812226, 40.184015667195084, 32.98246918464377 ], "rps": [ 0.4601462496737844, 0.3629546340113284, 0.45609802211259115, 0.3263091613062497, 0.4384377059651023, 0.282016358146856, 0.45638939461657574, 0.6437755252219666 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4122606865060767, 0.37346476193268074, 0.5449498617316163, 0.36687869557844566, 0.47023810687668466, 0.3514902720415714, 0.4617152805402287, 0.46890906592470627 ], "bias": [ -15.616160616084679, -3.88073850022532, -64.67920894827093, -2.6586784839687922, 8.691836710624154, 13.502129326908761, -46.202236934115604, -51.86468010985071 ], "mae": [ 29.611367142935837, 18.472093274402987, 66.45866023805712, 19.732104779867687, 35.226643880970016, 23.01922778565747, 53.899625068325776, 55.28969140763831 ], "mse": [ 1507.1308429536332, 560.3811558715965, 6305.197917580926, 959.3815485530417, 1770.5428584164408, 856.8372226651246, 5005.725747967994, 5015.339093939588 ], "var": [ 2654.4231988291076, 2652.610691829143, 6484.519703132088, 2207.5356452571486, 2254.1715928924086, 3985.1497087685175, 3346.2295745838423, 1832.5935131851923 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00021047670029985266, 0.0, 0.0, 7.812313123781639e-05 ] }, "crps": 28.437024304987133, "crpss": 0.027916071865929926, "rps": 0.42826588138180677, "rpss": 0.00689284723641026, "mean_bias_mm": -20.33846719437289, "mean_mae_mm": 37.713676697231904, "mean_rmse_mm": 52.41723999309333, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0753380105391448, "zero_fraction": 3.6074978942208635e-05, "correlation": 0.2577169040088324, "pit_histogram": [ 0.02075, 0.04167, 0.05318, 0.0657, 0.0974, 0.11398, 0.12528, 0.14116, 0.15092, 0.18996 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.4425952554824756 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 28.01709977744575, 14.400846156831793, 54.6160945403301, 21.37038192842179, 22.043974096089308, 14.916656000557149, 53.185724774916665, 23.721557036842874 ], "crps_clim": [ 24.012970318608165, 17.14717700571395, 95.49608165309667, 24.212333377463093, 25.06890034808142, 15.600720521826346, 60.26104362729821, 20.04862260959093 ], "rps": [ 0.4824566004701305, 0.3170880680308764, 0.2050774451103813, 0.36026112026229795, 0.4322564201897526, 0.3067294596638895, 0.4329639395856368, 0.4495359683561641 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.41878823842713037, 0.35324432725808413, 0.5497651995010865, 0.41409150307530557, 0.5005547552283075, 0.3283216384408885, 0.5179393125380852, 0.38569803603839053 ], "bias": [ -26.971565257626633, 3.8636581542811754, -63.368555025784545, -7.786063187359384, 41.18329716009532, 12.853190638604739, -60.30219547340264, -22.86725531652394 ], "mae": [ 32.40574895205109, 18.374667850471642, 67.88273417148525, 28.787880570305948, 41.876390567379886, 20.55627491033571, 70.15587931575351, 31.493759509764548 ], "mse": [ 1647.8639469846946, 529.0543751075365, 6690.205886945591, 1809.3742589048622, 2095.2196428978223, 599.5680486182122, 6872.772110357339, 1714.949585635222 ], "var": [ 3848.544192958723, 3005.7055049233804, 11718.482026923175, 2640.5615151096113, 3165.4366980608934, 3598.3264341727595, 5337.510684354703, 2239.2015122382004 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 29.03404178892943, "crpss": 0.17589460144872893, "rps": 0.3732961277086411, "rpss": 0.13897865599178116, "mean_bias_mm": -15.424436038464489, "mean_mae_mm": 38.94166698094345, "mean_rmse_mm": 52.39156403402565, "spread_error_ratio": 1.2724375111646347, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.6942998604328721, "pit_histogram": [ 0.0272, 0.05318, 0.06462, 0.07506, 0.11493, 0.11628, 0.13383, 0.15961, 0.143, 0.11229 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.3598835726145282 } }, "full": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 26.039849560031854, 20.73184117242829, 22.627294485590863, 23.30445127924988, 89.98514904649939, 29.838428934198927, 31.672963467978796, 41.5728957385244, 15.788183209105641, 22.793188879745642, 35.79886715587728, 20.229427348747297, 16.013513281790306, 30.896125698408447, 33.78109941706843, 23.703743504142412, 21.290464907070643, 38.98026545208962, 24.87789476743903, 24.816538522288596, 19.598506829191514, 32.591559478827925, 23.180494984945913, 19.315510976469586, 21.44384119482243, 14.690619828330341, 49.29003352408647, 15.282852900244793, 24.39863361149416, 15.864985180344826, 37.710562822877115, 40.249292903808815 ], "crps_clim": [ 21.565188759301577, 23.38563063557986, 19.097928412475547, 27.65831750898805, 115.86467554318806, 32.608713982744845, 35.74981363535668, 35.27522856142174, 17.037873658289875, 19.249766823627166, 29.95460921092147, 21.757280334006133, 22.589855526865747, 32.8860898565903, 21.287962454192346, 23.34276551652251, 20.5096382411715, 27.15997168831795, 25.49780817078038, 22.130467654701782, 19.335150240563912, 30.517713481749208, 23.826246347839884, 21.865464318236576, 19.893432351136823, 17.03329139891581, 64.14883327049633, 18.974050124817815, 25.33605920687928, 16.45512833366636, 38.480365999726736, 31.353009520945946 ], "rps": [ 0.5088438321404648, 0.42991372440760767, 0.5230121561902813, 0.486143680756066, 0.2879035333121381, 0.4253010721673038, 0.4126827023236148, 0.5871157396724642, 0.38561379999334283, 0.5058522486959868, 0.6804920590975699, 0.355469865891111, 0.391605079757794, 0.4082451224095948, 0.6878774388792144, 0.4386817283612629, 0.397314191973803, 0.6964396098979654, 0.47110721666065086, 0.46387875339311774, 0.37926697487554123, 0.5180727204976268, 0.4120062134445504, 0.42559412944133673, 0.4536285241944714, 0.3330289203061768, 0.4432483632237643, 0.3236948372820674, 0.4404726878290268, 0.2948543924119788, 0.44812739322481265, 0.6239298414788549 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4235467576215105, 0.47608889223006146, 0.42116084841535095, 0.52922569582888, 0.5521940842175864, 0.48422399901825147, 0.4817361166669598, 0.48212565828300324, 0.39092541948658205, 0.43695066648742936, 0.5455763971634705, 0.37045590341108353, 0.4938985727810239, 0.45690686490267524, 0.44941552111033356, 0.42409929339583347, 0.4060824902077587, 0.5026173106347752, 0.49052948788469664, 0.41131287431461633, 0.38663843087009825, 0.4959596204449516, 0.4216770610806586, 0.46451823268332443, 0.4095379456154036, 0.3675043388775151, 0.5502738168335921, 0.3945497358652498, 0.47350515274771016, 0.3484831583622997, 0.46150350689172287, 0.4645838963389065 ], "bias": [ -18.969851305171147, 29.249551129854222, 31.704988467429303, 39.20385196017113, -113.38579101271993, -21.137670877349972, -19.382698291977253, -48.433645265055404, 3.8765878841091115, 24.177141345162948, 62.39281569757836, 16.554328840061075, 27.822391434517336, -34.64951929589198, 55.06867276416839, -19.3961992721692, 4.381511040271633, 62.90719297395143, 28.316372990520076, 24.467533749002662, -10.923102976505595, -41.011731031317325, 28.136170127281854, 13.751544506304885, -10.804323501210954, 1.0426717889172639, -62.22847969894211, 2.3822521913360006, 14.486864658394758, 19.212457993041834, -42.45972527228933, -48.086748567273006 ], "mae": [ 34.60177574637097, 35.55544286509588, 36.71443427849924, 41.60542942719276, 114.30574888580641, 43.551797545952056, 43.389392003062895, 52.22604536338117, 24.231412071987222, 38.75314815914329, 62.46906800904078, 29.111660381600764, 30.676638889843545, 40.48429834467602, 55.464599422612814, 31.809559741546785, 30.852158804262107, 63.06210558656638, 42.22482514377435, 37.98992504758142, 23.77458082282187, 43.57710244241086, 40.20981994045505, 31.17972391857823, 28.281201997701093, 18.35011093257029, 63.99844084185037, 21.513782658907484, 36.94133899834881, 25.7010005797146, 51.39145305224775, 52.2637431547097 ], "mse": [ 2324.995515621019, 1957.8722806792416, 2175.8165609297266, 2260.9157725426803, 18668.02605655818, 3252.257619434225, 3421.4852359485712, 4585.12258190817, 951.8756728725784, 2391.1469513429893, 4818.316275078347, 1622.5721727543355, 1338.063381119766, 2908.3462199754354, 4261.038411227795, 1842.3189526551844, 1451.1468791455668, 5944.432899169884, 2835.531015908031, 2440.188936774158, 961.0365743965478, 2978.8984447835924, 2484.719145741183, 1583.7655623304506, 1346.8180813270108, 535.868384929319, 5907.004426092052, 996.2049686251971, 1961.816282333648, 1016.455441928022, 4566.576372074486, 4518.115119005823 ], "var": [ 2330.4111854781313, 3684.445086666407, 2382.7384150998782, 2376.5064246874, 3129.2483352160957, 1966.0237356407422, 2826.048550889569, 2799.6383487814255, 2105.762975304447, 3240.572823312531, 3546.4119781562003, 3164.706078096146, 2133.6642010833652, 2573.207207723469, 2779.0094543815817, 2293.1049522073295, 4025.7935649476212, 3040.815188115651, 2675.3669691192567, 2320.6873320120703, 3121.7211521565837, 2049.247101600392, 6531.844822503596, 1902.1108775996984, 2634.5395748232722, 2638.1053372180972, 5866.768485735399, 2228.579081117965, 2242.5341195931724, 3902.0119251219385, 3151.544192591982, 1832.4966251940043 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00042937246861169943, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004263336225917233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00015937118772514544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008557060912034227, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00021047670029985266, 0.0, 0.0, 7.812313123781639e-05 ] }, "crps": 28.386221251991238, "crpss": 0.014611452324368779, "rps": 0.4574818298184863, "rpss": -0.01186156233726976, "mean_bias_mm": -0.054205775806217105, "mean_mae_mm": 41.44568015807228, "mean_rmse_mm": 55.98793067349796, "spread_error_ratio": 0.9654423257183983, "zero_fraction": 6.748072505217688e-05, "correlation": 0.11591172691208217, "pit_histogram": [ 0.14585, 0.10538, 0.08123, 0.07654, 0.08489, 0.08347, 0.09299, 0.10513, 0.10627, 0.11826 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.16178062597973653 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 17.325094394478512, 25.897158381009476, 16.889181740736028, 20.020900985605408, 110.19351178615317, 22.514140637823555, 18.423296425732556, 59.05469571805795, 19.308313476512964, 17.064282455259438, 35.70835937983169, 24.000160812061942, 19.872754767355435, 46.8098918613805, 33.11429429258353, 34.35306043093658, 18.58912237518217, 35.29527402829588, 23.270523918420626, 21.98190359094232, 17.81811607172449, 35.485581826678725, 26.79868085454556, 26.01173600176829, 26.49249176279553, 14.50570539494762, 53.42735397622397, 21.380293730794094, 25.406454419999815, 15.333344971293513, 51.32955622946691, 22.316685953825946 ], "crps_clim": [ 20.62823078391462, 22.736075489400832, 17.20303065300768, 33.38592024446952, 148.69890061775828, 32.54163468771625, 20.813924730768786, 45.34936829224909, 21.110172436165435, 18.987977073987647, 35.64746457072699, 24.18698188499711, 30.543634191772295, 49.7010744586202, 22.788748659461, 33.02631501609522, 18.025620044910095, 33.698138045350596, 26.182976675526973, 24.697762649323387, 18.323363286191857, 30.274060611645748, 36.95358378488871, 31.968592033538773, 23.529333965483502, 18.554147550975507, 95.7655520497254, 24.80422585413712, 28.59879576238074, 16.421943505646766, 59.22616150944826, 19.837161306589184 ], "rps": [ 0.363346293146682, 0.42054965921250576, 0.3413977798698046, 0.2896250539096459, 0.192650657744101, 0.2854916183107277, 0.38195101290859124, 0.7254310413775755, 0.38195117339223983, 0.3444564386560847, 0.5312226154668283, 0.3949211315086975, 0.3157612957839465, 0.4652250714548376, 0.6361901486981354, 0.51732075480413, 0.3216524525242942, 0.4974211156707156, 0.383232260134657, 0.3300016652554407, 0.3390928976190009, 0.5800540971047882, 0.22071562222282376, 0.40749561689423414, 0.4784159680957282, 0.313728119528611, 0.1929587354391186, 0.37113697894503855, 0.44608169394471764, 0.31280457889215935, 0.42190142465870706, 0.4303135461064225 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4353624306832978, 0.4191800777990544, 0.33092642730556393, 0.5345989952281157, 0.5549256946518838, 0.4853155529512196, 0.4290652521208975, 0.49985640326148617, 0.40930380959521595, 0.37730746282751154, 0.5561589821998123, 0.3968450353921786, 0.5352098508957999, 0.5197317160936026, 0.4622154279575823, 0.47965872542692495, 0.3452359656196985, 0.510985845909633, 0.4364472915440719, 0.37533126250969556, 0.33575420241270676, 0.47704841054116015, 0.48221255024125415, 0.5432080506356914, 0.4191937836801347, 0.36236938480584985, 0.5586414801407072, 0.4345261685934756, 0.5204520422939962, 0.3377365051099261, 0.5222952003256466, 0.37908107264058183 ], "bias": [ 4.0440144755834675, 32.13672005444123, 13.553604769749207, 36.74892593051036, -135.58841360880575, 17.709918157771558, 18.116232784429133, -70.8591464087253, -6.4091207929710015, -8.734687052891642, 64.93720477637011, 27.22836116978875, 42.63474920106452, -57.964538089728265, 57.934876930502966, -42.995002693636515, 25.2253970342966, 55.584653581850006, 3.3870074911637817, 0.1245692423227657, -2.3365840469564323, -43.785535077106374, 20.117852893603573, 43.511605606950766, -23.718738848639372, 7.664991642712937, -63.13174359303853, -3.8709706880333807, 46.7404964268039, 17.494173489226434, -58.84126116445181, -19.61256616577961 ], "mae": [ 27.408605161998583, 40.498761841375, 25.0723609122541, 38.04632897002713, 136.83932950879276, 37.38985477624605, 28.933652516105745, 74.7961743502818, 27.789350174075448, 20.834162104434316, 64.93720477637011, 36.44124247929379, 42.688422982106964, 61.000208208280014, 58.591120908204545, 44.131393719224754, 33.11779825905355, 55.9818857517108, 35.17317800643667, 31.165855382180222, 21.96580472383327, 47.89582499501705, 42.02423965399677, 45.400978267671924, 30.299015502210363, 19.43786258253418, 67.6160224337775, 29.93825893384609, 47.05105159904062, 23.41305310606367, 68.69561598654401, 30.06665526367745 ], "mse": [ 1166.3688421216987, 2558.705580128089, 1015.7704627169661, 1838.8879883366424, 25245.66979294407, 2249.3919444910002, 1265.4185868261166, 7760.901785953264, 1314.7550476435656, 767.360625593744, 4651.458195345491, 2089.193656321723, 2153.579752287809, 5246.130878265633, 4164.3608358691, 3161.0737967414493, 1505.359266823342, 4586.57404341397, 1964.2108779642956, 1626.5863400325904, 815.6582654113927, 3344.0069378192056, 2931.406578784294, 2550.937430462684, 1463.453278738541, 572.6822101538776, 6589.990683531072, 1805.6288215154482, 2579.648260766565, 770.2221769086514, 6558.537360143244, 1543.8171091750587 ], "var": [ 2231.4572012714043, 6183.4557599249565, 2841.1894633316833, 2800.991381207668, 3463.4107775059974, 1897.973830927775, 2736.135851973791, 2714.455311012079, 2079.8011670288092, 2395.2502631645243, 4037.1550330239793, 4969.774865167391, 3312.5004455565454, 3293.790792301773, 3913.2154370241383, 3542.9856074427253, 6070.535899786602, 2536.0770131042073, 2750.619029271321, 3187.2609833383935, 3626.547235350445, 2007.711056880878, 11378.454046699748, 2476.5618545097814, 3852.0109052220373, 3000.977431951444, 10373.948228002113, 2662.956417929688, 3172.6460931165097, 3675.5655093713845, 4883.659769079981, 2255.3365270224463 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 29.874747582888258, "crpss": 0.11826015864187656, "rps": 0.39482807872753095, "rpss": 0.12661825082513056, "mean_bias_mm": -0.09227976786318592, "mean_mae_mm": 43.58253980739579, "mean_rmse_mm": 58.056477732148515, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0562122486918757, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.38641972290823445, "pit_histogram": [ 0.1193, 0.09301, 0.08544, 0.09291, 0.10639, 0.09633, 0.09839, 0.1026, 0.10454, 0.10108 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.06782853580713026 } }, "distribution_full": { "ethiopia": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9999686194978816, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.002406243127872319 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0035339445882783, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.008372644740810113 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9970507947123299, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.3406067411063813 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 0.99670176628187, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.09189007794765222 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0298024839469389, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.07847327677673041 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": -0.004027333498847804 } }, "ondj_domain": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9996582783482836, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.0016416188134903405 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0028503674426916, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.006959323219054513 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 1.069154710839005, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.15002245813694168 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9887108514935827, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.06185692080300162 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0150488858853097, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.0723118838886259 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": 0.0 } } } }, "dc": { "training": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 26.164998230319696, 18.82974617825087, 18.740617082949452, 19.950233215112263, 98.95458420621573, 33.78263629253434, 35.17587268246084, 43.30338761951911, 16.767825458662074, 20.967818900325522, 28.824056723284833, 19.116290247893247, 16.03158164389377, 35.60582285565804, 25.956012207304738, 24.83419396521495, 20.999770616984915, 30.086291642865085, 22.82249927938401, 20.872925798259658, 21.055132697735022, 35.74521624332052, 20.90081626283324, 18.645409857876047 ], "crps_clim": [ 22.51064113159216, 21.34178182693399, 17.109998394156545, 24.703975408517493, 122.2696629923497, 34.35098937579959, 37.99006225524478, 38.26557578034132, 17.080571907583543, 17.74984365790482, 26.57914721869575, 20.704500238866018, 20.302011916608773, 36.321622918341355, 19.07649303993666, 24.496312766356763, 20.70257424683409, 24.33223915547966, 23.533815992682083, 20.40174081976945, 20.534635777607914, 33.59238533966214, 24.32853834433991, 20.828282238756913 ], "rps": [ 0.5030139165145489, 0.402980375102767, 0.4394344926920637, 0.43295412805705225, 0.3682535961554467, 0.5056046232751326, 0.44361888675966404, 0.6027660659768552, 0.38290492815064947, 0.5096179443245973, 0.5781130944220714, 0.3539104075066403, 0.3594909724524008, 0.4727266801305885, 0.5318418669647584, 0.470540719733933, 0.4092428726937926, 0.583646770728407, 0.43976054557830657, 0.40693657521796733, 0.42699794677254327, 0.5508641541837583, 0.3481067388000662, 0.38800994475704986 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.43940389525455414, 0.46658159808332234, 0.4078016609722334, 0.5058326556309144, 0.5395139575622566, 0.49558246733465433, 0.4802715225811077, 0.49404333105867937, 0.39146218082661743, 0.427716413607736, 0.5144532326749148, 0.3688788606345833, 0.45641496128233255, 0.4825359164875749, 0.4144568430509284, 0.43646088297845814, 0.42094222250140517, 0.4840252597737128, 0.47195865794782255, 0.4060822454153488, 0.4076181814082607, 0.4985033826792915, 0.4183880428687596, 0.4537770988799093 ], "bias": [ -19.941664526440917, 22.759458001436304, 27.217682875437983, 36.31055599620945, -125.07257088322197, -23.572650006661494, -24.569551651918005, -52.12098249924269, -0.38343706187170223, 17.593736390172527, 56.21793337776689, 12.562682628844692, 25.890538684821895, -40.873268394264166, 48.60105854896561, -22.34574250803557, -2.7872131131210525, 56.16886269613651, 23.95201912646086, 19.161677894856528, -15.167070649283932, -44.851336929734686, 12.49536381423589, 12.50044253026467 ], "mae": [ 35.890156973051326, 32.81440203698249, 33.1028062441558, 39.49875170564254, 125.63430988682138, 48.16634844466332, 47.290083040934434, 55.15005070174902, 23.84868622977487, 34.84200667214982, 56.31463845265164, 26.601947711892905, 29.483420203419524, 45.10873451687131, 49.30557642126937, 31.837973320862883, 28.085689047730803, 56.46266207270468, 39.37687839953705, 34.40489510951522, 25.05154804098624, 46.702416234769245, 31.695930440572603, 32.21041275501517 ], "mse": [ 2398.940212908796, 1694.5821862081502, 1750.1159905963268, 2040.3282159921635, 22003.928603768258, 3860.818220615816, 4095.753750043654, 4902.236431255869, 936.3436221115904, 1948.8176307691351, 3928.502644436973, 1352.9429339735416, 1245.080248715289, 3495.8010180982774, 3420.6017221509173, 1923.4745992711255, 1267.990745774765, 4657.744139721921, 2471.4966327720867, 2040.01153052256, 1081.6653071317985, 3361.4476344859468, 1659.132842989456, 1671.3530371895317 ], "var": [ 2263.2024259194577, 4206.959009719587, 3768.9923823326517, 2843.9144553081055, 3857.2161439318447, 2474.687840158619, 3355.8005660480417, 2779.14138760081, 3287.84560686319, 4340.103491585773, 3855.9638809954754, 3028.7039885752597, 2526.483953351385, 3897.0956247936297, 4594.444610662854, 3005.520717731076, 3921.6955816591408, 4212.357615806753, 3613.51369803803, 4108.581545953102, 3350.1155834552374, 3196.0688980394557, 6690.223804498298, 2431.595421918207 ], "zero": [ 0.005347867683265933, 0.0046794689414942844, 0.00491138179021025, 0.004853652128443868, 0.005347867683265933, 0.005347867683265933, 0.005347867683265933, 0.005347867683265933, 0.004999058740842817, 0.00488257365289605, 0.005231687286816802, 0.005347867683265933, 0.004824627060116996, 0.005347867683265933, 0.005261255382268569, 0.005347867683265933, 0.005347867683265933, 0.00485335774768095, 0.005028388107005735, 0.005202875304829203, 0.005347867683265933, 0.005347867683265933, 0.0048537211170973545, 0.004592364939488313 ] }, "crps": 28.088905829535747, "crpss": 0.021729069773261944, "rps": 0.4546390936229609, "rpss": -0.002631034675217414, "mean_bias_mm": -0.010561485757766794, "mean_mae_mm": 42.03668019432181, "mean_rmse_mm": 57.448930183505865, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0396215204368529, "zero_fraction": 0.005125039863129853, "correlation": 0.06643729427050481, "pit_histogram": [ 0.10085, 0.09162, 0.09646, 0.1024, 0.10322, 0.09601, 0.09524, 0.09725, 0.1094, 0.10756 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.046846107203534104 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 18.901906720493436, 24.05997708220971, 17.473160197553177, 20.233888629021386, 119.83443425470725, 23.925021028623945, 18.354690244946053, 58.17356700307137, 20.73172103027991, 20.739368231666848, 31.911209207123793, 21.450576554133903, 21.57353046093147, 51.68886512096845, 28.44662288404965, 35.927869201798686, 18.817927221452756, 31.188011921608354, 25.102709321334206, 23.57415191351967, 18.59058413576471, 36.44472098681443, 26.73514717963508, 23.829899278125353 ], "crps_clim": [ 20.16546441774922, 22.76670826790671, 16.94469548167337, 31.09433614253317, 155.68767899429207, 31.182604674802132, 20.063728628019742, 47.67425501377674, 21.053644879747303, 19.513270179453034, 33.170969511215155, 22.839448378093994, 28.243116177805117, 53.561271942272995, 21.37134058167887, 35.54201609868039, 17.47907876438195, 31.583296905530318, 26.57160898637116, 24.874887655242915, 18.60790218298319, 31.38851277619512, 38.48344091464168, 29.783372053088755 ], "rps": [ 0.38743644407143407, 0.41251573841005557, 0.35322714171553876, 0.3045355469928177, 0.30314317384016853, 0.34247379956019697, 0.3768570233299832, 0.6770980820475091, 0.4106514545895822, 0.4236060385790028, 0.5211098487530532, 0.3644883483450368, 0.3751079247631203, 0.5069536540709758, 0.5665891348669923, 0.5126040095069482, 0.3536569721363107, 0.4763706177430017, 0.38541524650638004, 0.3475436483178991, 0.34957908051842, 0.5841272667386562, 0.2709170067366067, 0.39283267648870346 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4283784846339526, 0.42670630481309463, 0.3446648823501038, 0.5130077295664848, 0.5410158900803291, 0.48132609963069506, 0.42143417253271964, 0.499616375801894, 0.4182216041304011, 0.40244267787358307, 0.5388940330394029, 0.3853584884109886, 0.5182825813030848, 0.5208909812511145, 0.44508072206563115, 0.4785608793092128, 0.35798102791050807, 0.4969649369586475, 0.42935647251841336, 0.3854220274094116, 0.34929100974978367, 0.4752706362743161, 0.48976956652503323, 0.5267262488889791 ], "bias": [ 4.754291344258507, 19.87731088828305, 11.835925964967412, 36.98196438809188, -151.4236538235135, 19.72946638888553, 18.759890376314672, -70.45751067342707, -7.380496771440432, -12.135871798290653, 61.30279674892799, 21.69424001578396, 42.01981745715206, -64.092583499257, 53.54443944776966, -45.10277712785646, 14.625642999152051, 55.39237290589661, 0.7580411828423859, -4.5431798297908506, -4.273909466920064, -44.134821822777795, -3.322629174865703, 43.283724463652646 ], "mae": [ 29.366911940149006, 36.33634707431855, 24.67756978779141, 38.477152014658046, 152.44513965411707, 41.69004145467616, 28.993962409292656, 74.57483160337318, 27.88205096343963, 22.413591999601078, 61.30294149715971, 31.193745727890363, 42.134573538574934, 66.74618572501169, 54.71156476320336, 46.02153920341701, 26.20199087595348, 55.851909386817255, 35.019239318651096, 30.19994537914145, 22.243208351678597, 47.37665586140942, 31.627571002541167, 46.47346967167044 ], "mse": [ 1306.4202962874306, 2124.970424348584, 976.5456524147156, 1875.8809653692426, 30349.374621596675, 2650.1629256445754, 1230.9436598544996, 7718.648045450857, 1313.788860476083, 916.4304869090437, 4180.409208443831, 1613.8549088738016, 2100.889494232124, 6151.608206460616, 3750.931357102284, 3474.3435994143993, 1001.0232614275366, 4307.078952073075, 1963.2191750892082, 1583.546824990173, 845.2604386735148, 3307.0804422478645, 1915.1325699843671, 2647.1640659740174 ], "var": [ 3221.1907311367163, 7479.3503064627685, 4494.225169881897, 2758.0370368039635, 5057.738052799148, 2565.531254521626, 3612.302271777831, 2933.2605721127934, 3625.005020421892, 4722.071902001856, 4254.403563917679, 4702.850773947903, 3167.836729131209, 4971.39584761832, 5593.4275299839255, 3890.3338877342617, 6151.711470738503, 3792.5219711826417, 4800.384957748176, 5420.515829165443, 4290.843393697304, 3667.080852107854, 9655.37839350998, 3449.8955291645607 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 30.73789832540973, "crpss": 0.07745557344441278, "rps": 0.4166183282761831, "rpss": 0.080538025620562, "mean_bias_mm": -0.0961462256733796, "mean_mae_mm": 44.74842246685571, "mean_rmse_mm": 61.00024195421227, "spread_error_ratio": 1.1011120526935747, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.2821391954460362, "pit_histogram": [ 0.07428, 0.09871, 0.10656, 0.11117, 0.11144, 0.10815, 0.10179, 0.08898, 0.10113, 0.09778 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.08048625132879657 } }, "operational": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 20.95024553311942, 15.092098151494941, 55.03949639372071, 15.049685661468185, 23.986994658013398, 15.375356879598836, 41.101992497269414, 40.92380154996454 ], "crps_clim": [ 20.32105586449988, 16.40570046524331, 65.52791755840862, 17.64632053938275, 24.293868622000836, 16.66802739812226, 40.184015667195084, 32.98246918464377 ], "rps": [ 0.4411659672237714, 0.36696055750819495, 0.48106810967363645, 0.3299232067558583, 0.47063907449756137, 0.30996150532382954, 0.4927319967245642, 0.6362612365555171 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4122606865060767, 0.37346476193268074, 0.5449498617316163, 0.36687869557844566, 0.47023810687668466, 0.3514902720415714, 0.4617152805402287, 0.46890906592470627 ], "bias": [ -14.330155063491588, -1.6153505020251955, -71.02318559693241, 0.6618286536854924, 10.278597700580312, 9.871706278332487, -46.886646027514004, -47.83986185866872 ], "mae": [ 29.541861050672768, 18.89892182066663, 72.40611027915187, 21.26535363548267, 35.521390478292766, 22.431228189216093, 54.44652440441904, 53.0772637982766 ], "mse": [ 1504.7246265268752, 572.3541663750166, 7418.110022943024, 1009.4761430746388, 1810.4592257937363, 808.6999757700935, 5083.01575338042, 4605.644790696896 ], "var": [ 3054.2321970219787, 2644.9044281997963, 5098.619391492047, 2565.0027170728918, 3128.6372012400006, 4296.612026081746, 3802.940445284071, 2334.821769203249 ], "zero": [ 0.005125039863129852, 0.005125039863129852, 0.005125039863129852, 0.005125039863129852, 0.005125039863129852, 0.005125039863129852, 0.005125039863129852, 0.005125039863129852 ] }, "crps": 28.43995891558118, "crpss": 0.027815755891824945, "rps": 0.44108895678286664, "rpss": -0.02284262424250083, "mean_bias_mm": -20.1103833020042, "mean_mae_mm": 38.4485817070223, "mean_rmse_mm": 53.40000550627395, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0864200500284962, "zero_fraction": 0.005125039863129852, "correlation": 0.2501060642536288, "pit_histogram": [ 0.01367, 0.02421, 0.04779, 0.08374, 0.12065, 0.13346, 0.12471, 0.13108, 0.15104, 0.16964 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.4611618063996391 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 24.792672333619866, 14.236301216333812, 63.80389235486144, 21.282081457905683, 22.090963267039015, 14.919080977393653, 55.73838467317456, 22.45866222815484 ], "crps_clim": [ 24.012970318608165, 17.14717700571395, 95.49608165309667, 24.212333377463093, 25.06890034808142, 15.600720521826346, 60.26104362729821, 20.04862260959093 ], "rps": [ 0.4438386747373859, 0.31490382138438217, 0.2731616115212415, 0.36245408562551235, 0.4362413502606464, 0.32279113129874737, 0.46433153046530296, 0.4430265487409008 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.41878823842713037, 0.35324432725808413, 0.5497651995010865, 0.41409150307530557, 0.5005547552283075, 0.3283216384408885, 0.5179393125380852, 0.38569803603839053 ], "bias": [ -25.588120013922836, 6.4602840285765915, -80.71470762560958, -3.760302287610948, 43.43375463382744, 13.856714909059058, -65.46784547710908, -18.000461505919645 ], "mae": [ 31.37612940124958, 19.96863125578052, 84.20729291634771, 30.83579118817134, 44.073700295064604, 21.255702660713162, 73.70962613572053, 31.219635443635468 ], "mse": [ 1598.15269608892, 581.0193567041911, 9735.706692485935, 1867.971101586917, 2290.2347888273625, 619.9634579459147, 7533.038384918353, 1639.1751050724242 ], "var": [ 3766.2267455807932, 3154.8777392941843, 9166.038675285203, 3519.719712748936, 3713.660889035108, 4068.7886228917846, 5721.947735163004, 3043.190114235183 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 29.91525481356036, "crpss": 0.15088215515718484, "rps": 0.382593594254265, "rpss": 0.11753370506201233, "mean_bias_mm": -16.222585417338628, "mean_mae_mm": 42.08081366208536, "mean_rmse_mm": 56.860862620556084, "spread_error_ratio": 1.1822857185586804, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.6901840783353386, "pit_histogram": [ 0.02209, 0.03272, 0.07468, 0.11793, 0.14086, 0.11238, 0.10812, 0.12769, 0.15196, 0.11156 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.3410272764423517 } }, "full": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 24.16683392031916, 20.72994998339132, 21.451724989844667, 22.815441734049973, 91.15939201310808, 31.07513317506503, 32.81159699341869, 39.73146089697161, 16.760572363503446, 23.293952865514907, 33.09945489941624, 19.568250625596658, 17.78829962867328, 31.908729046584853, 29.469064232140425, 23.625388702519114, 20.598147757766835, 34.44837748796218, 25.50141538207449, 23.42322336220092, 19.617214329492974, 32.01895419875082, 22.505827551078838, 18.576213188822713, 20.20183532866579, 14.689972371629143, 52.93320904412831, 15.496354922621736, 24.756186980436983, 16.030781001095793, 39.16971462770599, 39.06984119934645 ], "crps_clim": [ 21.565188759301577, 23.38563063557986, 19.097928412475547, 27.65831750898805, 115.86467554318806, 32.608713982744845, 35.74981363535668, 35.27522856142174, 17.037873658289875, 19.249766823627166, 29.95460921092147, 21.757280334006133, 22.589855526865747, 32.8860898565903, 21.287962454192346, 23.34276551652251, 20.5096382411715, 27.15997168831795, 25.49780817078038, 22.130467654701782, 19.335150240563912, 30.517713481749208, 23.826246347839884, 21.865464318236576, 19.893432351136823, 17.03329139891581, 64.14883327049633, 18.974050124817815, 25.33605920687928, 16.45512833366636, 38.480365999726736, 31.353009520945946 ], "rps": [ 0.4635558744045123, 0.4015111657393531, 0.4749344260068123, 0.4465211947160445, 0.3507440928770635, 0.46193318701948294, 0.4308425693337328, 0.5729677380798588, 0.391600914110269, 0.5328019763473534, 0.6135474098055486, 0.353002028462784, 0.3811938840842969, 0.4322088026216128, 0.5915904659172221, 0.4496953320354584, 0.395001596439488, 0.6157887245290509, 0.47211038137209643, 0.42936297282221514, 0.4039267953938049, 0.5242357763831106, 0.39151038301323643, 0.3799779439453482, 0.4280381516147187, 0.3415224779124048, 0.4667815896466824, 0.3287014943902533, 0.4612946287088406, 0.3224607998563762, 0.48106898601387826, 0.6236372946913219 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4235467576215105, 0.47608889223006146, 0.42116084841535095, 0.52922569582888, 0.5521940842175864, 0.48422399901825147, 0.4817361166669598, 0.48212565828300324, 0.39092541948658205, 0.43695066648742936, 0.5455763971634705, 0.37045590341108353, 0.4938985727810239, 0.45690686490267524, 0.44941552111033356, 0.42409929339583347, 0.4060824902077587, 0.5026173106347752, 0.49052948788469664, 0.41131287431461633, 0.38663843087009825, 0.4959596204449516, 0.4216770610806586, 0.46451823268332443, 0.4095379456154036, 0.3675043388775151, 0.5502738168335921, 0.3945497358652498, 0.47350515274771016, 0.3484831583622997, 0.46150350689172287, 0.4645838963389065 ], "bias": [ -15.725058096413749, 27.553050788107434, 32.3689054161285, 40.78854114449141, -116.60382995415004, -18.79379938285107, -18.767737194843335, -46.75232176979257, 4.809624803223975, 23.14733317534129, 61.209045304244455, 16.909693275624356, 30.216103504512642, -35.085329035183776, 54.07045031814467, -17.16860002159213, 2.2398072768461255, 61.650171468761165, 29.081804092856483, 24.565495599021745, -9.920143805147152, -39.286540899198855, 19.095367273827936, 16.53169513734731, -9.915178361319413, 2.952823335457768, -67.98979467329357, 5.053392041103591, 15.56414226458173, 16.323348586513422, -43.341576711446294, -44.78800119400523 ], "mae": [ 33.776661730149705, 35.09585088415213, 36.56826353019529, 43.20394975931383, 117.52604536844733, 45.253075793426596, 45.40448489177982, 50.81312522130377, 23.947946579827775, 37.55272859497363, 61.285670477797424, 28.067815960049472, 32.572781112974766, 40.52496679198482, 54.508041583842655, 30.24958356495108, 28.51095782254115, 61.77740301063572, 42.28261454673241, 38.35994719380951, 23.846852639418717, 42.07125668262337, 35.148619906548824, 32.42227432911254, 28.15231638921763, 19.063328440749682, 69.70483297566096, 23.042473305849942, 37.408816501910906, 24.872504877737168, 52.065016609446516, 50.81601419469969 ], "mse": [ 2137.5812856004386, 1889.4310655152647, 2131.6392896873876, 2420.839096528663, 19858.923234240152, 3400.9473350031203, 3665.215697134661, 4326.425444148111, 924.2702523504394, 2245.0480079325685, 4606.873591434945, 1541.076094525765, 1496.0715091925213, 2923.7938567716997, 4094.409398325172, 1726.1975964320677, 1259.8284343933572, 5434.80512720088, 2818.909963786872, 2439.787186035482, 952.02115755421, 2807.352684968758, 1934.4390227297506, 1670.4538947143537, 1348.9240865554198, 573.3029085627179, 6980.685963288888, 1062.7258888856995, 2017.7038663121211, 919.3012540374496, 4683.641189551329, 4250.653186777545 ], "var": [ 2220.5062536500122, 4107.686682956186, 3641.068675517374, 2748.237209573303, 4419.110406872401, 2435.2146148901743, 3349.545422813028, 2755.7811920813638, 3205.07268911082, 4166.166750651815, 3742.8433656497573, 2949.849711199174, 2486.7862455929144, 3811.714479804585, 4468.7619155875245, 2985.91871741592, 3809.4300722976564, 4085.3842129862423, 3562.2465318602494, 4008.8409794632435, 3270.3435201535676, 3145.7745257395877, 6493.792296925215, 2375.9331215144616, 3052.1808919813966, 2644.8725608339805, 4769.119446951516, 2562.088148989022, 3101.2721031828037, 4325.670364705301, 3692.246538226376, 2297.8531378442863 ], "zero": [ 0.00422690500531611, 0.003730996261421016, 0.00390306063304899, 0.003860228948512643, 0.00422690500531611, 0.00422690500531611, 0.00422690500531611, 0.00422690500531611, 0.003968111273840894, 0.0038816868537513574, 0.004140706646660302, 0.00422690500531611, 0.003838694220399156, 0.00422690500531611, 0.004162644265866452, 0.00422690500531611, 0.00422690500531611, 0.0038600105369788642, 0.0039898717713166085, 0.004119330014863052, 0.00422690500531611, 0.00422690500531611, 0.003860280133642648, 0.0036663707115456184, 0.0040108502225516575, 0.00422690500531611, 0.00422690500531611, 0.00422690500531611, 0.00422690500531611, 0.004183827580026273, 0.00422690500531611, 0.00422690500531611 ] }, "crps": 28.077891087621794, "crpss": 0.025314709026818427, "rps": 0.45043972057169473, "rpss": 0.0037142249403046, "mean_bias_mm": -0.0002223841594108933, "mean_mae_mm": 41.434256914745774, "mean_rmse_mm": 56.0533447290887, "spread_error_ratio": 1.049253067777586, "zero_fraction": 0.0040948142238999815, "correlation": 0.11066192372999438, "pit_histogram": [ 0.10108, 0.09097, 0.09469, 0.09939, 0.10376, 0.09879, 0.09777, 0.10118, 0.10568, 0.1067 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.03678541187024871 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 18.391946292318934, 24.664076890447276, 17.804390472300955, 21.799937015940507, 113.06486726036135, 24.298020421817775, 19.184272354562268, 55.252209103368585, 20.552775510601748, 19.96897656684755, 34.4418605632278, 22.509672806845245, 23.43422397063671, 47.76672947951073, 30.593494675053844, 33.73604531387019, 19.61158554521739, 33.527600620977374, 25.56042000157118, 23.970274434602626, 18.269980168982016, 34.88342706868724, 27.260972386140974, 25.482842265110552, 24.451504938631818, 14.628301654765005, 63.17077253810954, 21.622826405081508, 25.13991626263718, 15.811046701035721, 54.821547849114296, 21.801813008647052 ], "crps_clim": [ 20.62823078391462, 22.736075489400832, 17.20303065300768, 33.38592024446952, 148.69890061775828, 32.54163468771625, 20.813924730768786, 45.34936829224909, 21.110172436165435, 18.987977073987647, 35.64746457072699, 24.18698188499711, 30.543634191772295, 49.7010744586202, 22.788748659461, 33.02631501609522, 18.025620044910095, 33.698138045350596, 26.182976675526973, 24.697762649323387, 18.323363286191857, 30.274060611645748, 36.95358378488871, 31.968592033538773, 23.529333965483502, 18.554147550975507, 95.7655520497254, 24.80422585413712, 28.59879576238074, 16.421943505646766, 59.22616150944826, 19.837161306589184 ], "rps": [ 0.37559748992422204, 0.41090463864996907, 0.3565463202789552, 0.309230040359961, 0.299210264247506, 0.32587986189683404, 0.3837988914204363, 0.6727342816381631, 0.4058467877907381, 0.39426529357398854, 0.5279915237426888, 0.38034986884586475, 0.3760835412773829, 0.485282724442177, 0.5966420422499993, 0.5152126349365724, 0.35902473302873666, 0.48053613293988606, 0.410249007492844, 0.3495030412107437, 0.3499835217707858, 0.5826351609142764, 0.27931336465844986, 0.39026087586674835, 0.45156007594860337, 0.3127900325702605, 0.2547760405684736, 0.3756611364626513, 0.43688053210528394, 0.3333686317280901, 0.45922573946761414, 0.4293411870401005 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4353624306832978, 0.4191800777990544, 0.33092642730556393, 0.5345989952281157, 0.5549256946518838, 0.4853155529512196, 0.4290652521208975, 0.49985640326148617, 0.40930380959521595, 0.37730746282751154, 0.5561589821998123, 0.3968450353921786, 0.5352098508957999, 0.5197317160936026, 0.4622154279575823, 0.47965872542692495, 0.3452359656196985, 0.510985845909633, 0.4364472915440719, 0.37533126250969556, 0.33575420241270676, 0.47704841054116015, 0.48221255024125415, 0.5432080506356914, 0.4191937836801347, 0.36236938480584985, 0.5586414801407072, 0.4345261685934756, 0.5204520422939962, 0.3377365051099261, 0.5222952003256466, 0.37908107264058183 ], "bias": [ 8.082024163877744, 24.47284868199667, 15.743251903490556, 39.97461168253616, -143.68904750397812, 22.741447269247665, 22.65335932694095, -66.068254370288, -3.3656399526027077, -7.939249128998654, 64.80308218701539, 25.40381811217244, 45.32520597552557, -59.13572164805102, 57.77629877118521, -40.463294197555484, 18.98468454507995, 59.05424131487821, 5.329658094573763, 0.15367072094773276, -0.14860384538458826, -39.79409707594976, 2.6397999460597115, 46.38480228437546, -22.30321627810359, 10.15993212443315, -78.56407591674115, -0.0874954083917813, 48.719531347628156, 18.472137082331123, -63.35213569992238, -14.8778838034463 ], "mae": [ 29.613646366468707, 36.651251624077986, 25.07856763866962, 41.18497427376842, 145.00531476386632, 42.41195675260685, 31.727244917314938, 70.95657401893638, 27.492082046838178, 20.904340977617807, 64.80308218701539, 33.85147914415274, 45.35683664600343, 61.63301236558965, 58.50663486871283, 41.949563281949345, 28.645662732979336, 59.36713066324491, 35.33074260139833, 32.04662368218454, 22.620534120806017, 44.41374540350866, 33.85139577842593, 48.77192330705903, 29.32593362906593, 21.000105527620864, 82.85078247014032, 32.06340728621167, 49.00979471309286, 24.149784976810434, 71.95016494558388, 30.04674770803028 ], "mse": [ 1290.8914192022685, 2126.2209152203386, 1008.1111643052235, 2123.2585235138167, 28092.099381935514, 2638.487017932005, 1435.0332021197323, 7097.785866311131, 1270.087226159535, 792.4245965808136, 4624.732598521241, 1885.898495723105, 2413.562371417429, 5327.10900010966, 4220.53866890617, 2991.978537008718, 1150.3816975747402, 4790.994715192176, 1961.6602494580306, 1686.745294425661, 819.8130750177862, 2965.6510640613587, 2102.3151106056457, 2893.698976214002, 1418.0758101158392, 636.3980854979382, 9434.479920354386, 1881.9903556474621, 2767.9165004904985, 787.72442082449, 7164.953961887816, 1499.2595904259044 ], "var": [ 3192.358696458354, 7306.0609053825865, 4416.305317390613, 2760.247951272344, 6114.52958668392, 2571.1563428305926, 3659.7800808561997, 3033.1103876147395, 3653.4766081575726, 4663.318734667575, 4265.545627814319, 4605.6371824726875, 3194.7738127514513, 5002.550325291051, 5607.410938485784, 3981.2808848408795, 6035.6385182804215, 3844.8388321787625, 4860.439150253178, 5430.017589718954, 4259.701956084465, 3698.779180254302, 9575.258729373088, 3424.2757922540504, 3890.9226501829203, 3223.1933701737107, 8548.571247946924, 3582.864555723725, 3768.4710490863895, 4208.26715173876, 5585.089926233314, 3130.390384086083 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 30.54619782959447, "crpss": 0.09844260428872376, "rps": 0.40845891934528145, "rpss": 0.0964660705145951, "mean_bias_mm": -0.09107216547243535, "mean_mae_mm": 44.455345044367235, "mean_rmse_mm": 59.50322412818287, "spread_error_ratio": 1.1316435013182524, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.38638035458480674, "pit_histogram": [ 0.07878, 0.09715, 0.09995, 0.10168, 0.11247, 0.11122, 0.10029, 0.10549, 0.11098, 0.08198 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.08427504764784269 } }, "distribution_full": { "ethiopia": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0003194768996462, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.0012221044742641866 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0569457991344464, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.06302248031449999 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9206866992241189, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.12101681886857917 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9727389960527518, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.04485598428896628 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0581713701491706, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.06920347068429739 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": 1.4020826912426542e-18 } }, "ondj_domain": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9993227225508865, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.001313470949993953 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0506110255398355, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.06184794097496506 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9218051410804879, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.08891018063316312 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9750807236831972, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.0397557196032854 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0571353521826607, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.06990129803218136 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": 0.0 } } } }, "loci": { "training": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 26.52415491247532, 20.33784390357556, 21.08416493179378, 24.0195783788405, 104.85652133887407, 35.303861114495646, 35.15250894945767, 43.40303469911668, 15.685555596916657, 21.34812249285952, 35.673657851416735, 17.967593104985717, 17.105352699368876, 34.65534598178297, 31.623321156166508, 23.066430917399728, 19.641840845524154, 37.35013001577356, 24.90000574949124, 23.594544350936793, 19.529908113658053, 35.54668662359935, 20.570712383821313, 21.55204691406856 ], "crps_clim": [ 22.51064113159216, 21.34178182693399, 17.109998394156545, 24.703975408517493, 122.2696629923497, 34.35098937579959, 37.99006225524478, 38.26557578034132, 17.080571907583543, 17.74984365790482, 26.57914721869575, 20.704500238866018, 20.302011916608773, 36.321622918341355, 19.07649303993666, 24.496312766356763, 20.70257424683409, 24.33223915547966, 23.533815992682083, 20.40174081976945, 20.534635777607914, 33.59238533966214, 24.32853834433991, 20.828282238756913 ], "rps": [ 0.5014876542922492, 0.44550020610318103, 0.5020998019159005, 0.5338075122707098, 0.2952170742676244, 0.4919096915567859, 0.40858132929331575, 0.565869687635623, 0.36748654393682956, 0.4874513892329583, 0.7138745870736306, 0.3234817241528769, 0.3858875105854883, 0.4228871784305872, 0.6315471200939264, 0.4178562392142864, 0.3762771052872422, 0.7246702877167707, 0.49185985120859677, 0.45763949962393835, 0.35697227983248647, 0.49510044732925307, 0.33977312546597066, 0.45032619689756104 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.43940389525455414, 0.46658159808332234, 0.4078016609722334, 0.5058326556309144, 0.5395139575622566, 0.49558246733465433, 0.4802715225811077, 0.49404333105867937, 0.39146218082661743, 0.427716413607736, 0.5144532326749148, 0.3688788606345833, 0.45641496128233255, 0.4825359164875749, 0.4144568430509284, 0.43646088297845814, 0.42094222250140517, 0.4840252597737128, 0.47195865794782255, 0.4060822454153488, 0.4076181814082607, 0.4985033826792915, 0.4183880428687596, 0.4537770988799093 ], "bias": [ -19.82836298320985, 22.654526480337868, 27.143663793782647, 36.49345990644906, -124.92964331058651, -23.537709377997146, -24.60843496669017, -52.156287719364116, -0.3465518696811085, 17.751491614642493, 56.1583597809522, 12.52885051713067, 25.911041902756835, -40.96256376474937, 48.47140736867318, -22.4017030216107, -2.703241244401711, 56.16063660498148, 23.879901416254995, 18.994137104278806, -15.170846136900991, -44.86151231258007, 12.348109767960796, 12.546084232353172 ], "mae": [ 35.85439616661428, 32.76299770590377, 33.021736301316245, 39.65969122959051, 125.48951301077983, 48.286378738761094, 47.358098747975426, 55.17176766089785, 23.85829990378672, 34.991865467937835, 56.25498192095448, 26.54492575007947, 29.475627880645646, 45.13460827124924, 49.186411788912814, 31.821876147319557, 27.994712304051355, 56.460351526005276, 39.339581699835385, 34.32146092932705, 25.04681131220451, 46.71375586296379, 31.742202970731643, 32.13933647855837 ], "mse": [ 2390.1848240714976, 1692.1564599624435, 1745.4217491865822, 2049.6907481348458, 22045.565208192453, 3865.764001114391, 4101.749538758427, 4896.892786666237, 936.447314619487, 1951.310587708711, 3921.612075750453, 1353.5626880353368, 1249.6246931435705, 3498.5765457414577, 3405.476625518802, 1922.2243357425868, 1262.709289165008, 4646.176236771015, 2471.249801080454, 2036.8787161346652, 1080.8914512174626, 3359.3430372964967, 1660.4420367649182, 1670.8742461063484 ], "var": [ 1505.7519555292147, 1913.036269087469, 1585.3009448055234, 1592.4382877819257, 2046.4796944613051, 1287.5589786284202, 1768.9776250251414, 1724.6321027261588, 1290.9152204045854, 2003.6940464621425, 2088.562280392027, 1880.4173972459948, 1393.468424467801, 1446.6009795920957, 1738.151070499191, 1503.0955795938007, 2001.9986613886556, 1898.917447737925, 1691.1311507023452, 1541.3790575575013, 1903.4286967007497, 1291.957944395825, 2769.915627549771, 1256.8805122114813 ], "zero": [ 0.04481884907999318, 0.03192259831253867, 0.02250370211299057, 0.0204193221507834, 0.017046558050534396, 0.03492662876988632, 0.029436462403644652, 0.03761307240733518, 0.030560997527685888, 0.023285024547915638, 0.02273928530449698, 0.035877559995265845, 0.028338907441450546, 0.024938674379760408, 0.01863726122583588, 0.037872384835197115, 0.03931767769210326, 0.024269168927011215, 0.03712048506623915, 0.03379384259438838, 0.02613372691332002, 0.026861887376462418, 0.01478705111161339, 0.0346100176179155 ] }, "crps": 29.603871792766626, "crpss": -0.031033653385335924, "rps": 0.46614850180907474, "rpss": -0.028013123457298228, "mean_bias_mm": -0.019382759050731835, "mean_mae_mm": 42.026307907350095, "mean_rmse_mm": 57.45100267361298, "spread_error_ratio": 0.7205233919328252, "zero_fraction": 0.029076297743515334, "correlation": 0.06998946124997218, "pit_histogram": [ 0.20978, 0.09833, 0.07606, 0.07279, 0.06958, 0.06909, 0.07408, 0.08274, 0.09187, 0.15568 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.3309206641433163 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 18.884061699495557, 24.24140200582525, 16.16020986951521, 22.882612544368914, 131.2190746412105, 28.419317416905024, 18.292992693017712, 59.48910440670639, 19.626122335683036, 16.50794911657985, 39.4895061769201, 20.387122168061747, 23.736045427708792, 52.82677976122866, 33.2430607327051, 34.044867186247544, 16.047394278407552, 37.82911433653244, 23.707864508992717, 21.297253680770442, 17.220613117561914, 35.623261890361135, 23.771591727973714, 31.004883331454753 ], "crps_clim": [ 20.16546441774922, 22.76670826790671, 16.94469548167337, 31.09433614253317, 155.68767899429207, 31.182604674802132, 20.063728628019742, 47.67425501377674, 21.053644879747303, 19.513270179453034, 33.170969511215155, 22.839448378093994, 28.243116177805117, 53.561271942272995, 21.37134058167887, 35.54201609868039, 17.47907876438195, 31.583296905530318, 26.57160898637116, 24.874887655242915, 18.60790218298319, 31.38851277619512, 38.48344091464168, 29.783372053088755 ], "rps": [ 0.384261295321105, 0.4123907359635912, 0.31054550961649585, 0.3627657942646765, 0.21177658095671825, 0.3999750025894257, 0.3894805739687332, 0.6575670283124534, 0.3987741898521782, 0.3338679996622952, 0.642480087395064, 0.34017328064303803, 0.4003659321269837, 0.46915471271108733, 0.663233893722662, 0.4597732567964541, 0.30002064355498276, 0.5923083912873193, 0.3339848732556356, 0.293589889816322, 0.2969329953144882, 0.5184740695043677, 0.20143472303815385, 0.5346071967238821 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4283784846339526, 0.42670630481309463, 0.3446648823501038, 0.5130077295664848, 0.5410158900803291, 0.48132609963069506, 0.42143417253271964, 0.499616375801894, 0.4182216041304011, 0.40244267787358307, 0.5388940330394029, 0.3853584884109886, 0.5182825813030848, 0.5208909812511145, 0.44508072206563115, 0.4785608793092128, 0.35798102791050807, 0.4969649369586475, 0.42935647251841336, 0.3854220274094116, 0.34929100974978367, 0.4752706362743161, 0.48976956652503323, 0.5267262488889791 ], "bias": [ 4.924678267078278, 19.632135162757027, 11.845482914890678, 37.196881565225446, -151.7922550507029, 19.971662220750417, 18.847845800227592, -70.29622593234981, -7.283690763962429, -12.138559161117618, 61.31654036915979, 21.70073494314378, 42.16606512516932, -64.14683112444078, 53.41028247825941, -45.054005169532836, 14.487296506055054, 55.440546324401616, 0.7143471383633471, -4.635932545127692, -4.248029067941908, -44.04410912993071, -3.7766029149488913, 43.41671670629565 ], "mae": [ 29.39077588024522, 36.24021375055831, 24.652683807935293, 38.666496176398034, 152.80679007184864, 41.84132585168877, 29.048917359005532, 74.44526986586632, 27.891141422799326, 22.400238718292396, 61.31654036915979, 31.173055698643623, 42.27794385399003, 66.78200757653326, 54.58424603868091, 45.97911170804475, 26.11469957960998, 55.90424850732073, 35.04486443233217, 30.18794961464504, 22.24509046195462, 47.292744168230804, 31.595667160317884, 46.55946763420628 ], "mse": [ 1306.844753132335, 2112.518071269547, 974.6562073672494, 1891.1279369740382, 30482.35637512585, 2661.8196967382473, 1232.2198971247296, 7693.89655554959, 1313.4749884580967, 914.3266318129439, 4180.481444607457, 1613.8322886384774, 2112.4754205365516, 6157.624844970132, 3733.9026939179735, 3472.2854986594425, 994.5930459331183, 4308.210299044258, 1965.1234164938014, 1583.660354185909, 844.9584626501605, 3297.252626064007, 1917.6488584089288, 2654.8705044392236 ], "var": [ 1489.9218581877321, 2829.2996161881524, 1869.540246987543, 1851.065676040872, 2012.4961942708871, 1352.8510880459603, 1902.725189453558, 1930.6819394694126, 1306.966277924595, 1413.994402153197, 2263.209154581971, 2754.613872327582, 2127.812001180539, 1686.8975944313647, 2468.7693272365896, 2237.792509345012, 2750.8010451480427, 1638.2301085090166, 1726.9405153189177, 2066.4972008286873, 2376.188621952242, 1362.1131192278758, 4177.8690793483665, 1623.296941331055 ], "zero": [ 0.00020927419687230978, 0.00020927419687230978, 0.0, 0.0, 6.975806562410326e-05, 0.00020927419687230978, 0.0, 6.975806562410326e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 6.975806562410326e-05, 6.975806562410326e-05, 6.975806562410326e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.975806562410326e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 6.975806562410326e-05, 6.975806562410326e-05, 6.975806562410326e-05, 0.0, 0.00027903226249641303 ] }, "crps": 31.91467521059309, "crpss": 0.0421366669521005, "rps": 0.41283077734992135, "rpss": 0.08889701709156295, "mean_bias_mm": -0.09770938909492226, "mean_mae_mm": 44.76839540451282, "mean_rmse_mm": 61.039659536547106, "spread_error_ratio": 0.7419174942026558, "zero_fraction": 6.394489348876131e-05, "correlation": 0.2802995337667353, "pit_histogram": [ 0.22058, 0.08553, 0.07599, 0.08047, 0.07815, 0.0773, 0.07528, 0.07004, 0.08636, 0.15031 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.3417715114162129 } }, "operational": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 21.503693477121768, 14.210695391545398, 55.715834416880895, 15.11741408906397, 24.400181408842403, 14.522527682995438, 40.92750284721782, 41.336511625185736 ], "crps_clim": [ 20.32105586449988, 16.40570046524331, 65.52791755840862, 17.64632053938275, 24.293868622000836, 16.66802739812226, 40.184015667195084, 32.98246918464377 ], "rps": [ 0.4514180729134025, 0.33107104335126236, 0.426325018383077, 0.3283430009012003, 0.4701252562300659, 0.27623317157432364, 0.43684859900519407, 0.6017943333039598 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4122606865060767, 0.37346476193268074, 0.5449498617316163, 0.36687869557844566, 0.47023810687668466, 0.3514902720415714, 0.4617152805402287, 0.46890906592470627 ], "bias": [ -14.395934894937515, -1.484503928728394, -71.12152383275229, 0.7004407567469673, 10.250307594815807, 9.916529386832575, -46.95536490999165, -47.76222019645921 ], "mae": [ 29.457289188201212, 18.913675777022128, 72.46928503973633, 21.297824477541905, 35.608532895311875, 22.54494038843708, 54.415404827847134, 53.04634250788063 ], "mse": [ 1502.7046632093322, 572.2059987771486, 7436.142214773969, 1012.199389964741, 1815.2194689406879, 811.594162128769, 5083.130508065166, 4594.073160955895 ], "var": [ 1591.3365027902714, 1615.239714036657, 2990.6781534734364, 1480.0472633537347, 1382.4617953830739, 2103.759372578058, 1740.4298366956086, 1299.136244660016 ], "zero": [ 0.040373932685870494, 0.02701514894701819, 0.0351900205865027, 0.04760629792163501, 0.03375247522551518, 0.022442199959878444, 0.023087189184690795, 0.04150851945226551 ] }, "crps": 28.466795117356682, "crpss": 0.02689839406949268, "rps": 0.4152698119578107, "rpss": 0.03702947512079757, "mean_bias_mm": -20.106533753059214, "mean_mae_mm": 38.46916188774728, "mean_rmse_mm": 53.417307081618816, "spread_error_ratio": 0.7887954898101327, "zero_fraction": 0.03387197299542204, "correlation": 0.250266137328639, "pit_histogram": [ 0.05551, 0.06024, 0.06191, 0.07308, 0.08734, 0.08572, 0.09443, 0.11323, 0.13327, 0.23527 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.3635396452604881 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 24.376899559025016, 13.639812696815408, 65.49960510971971, 21.560879846237746, 26.518591015477945, 13.865915028889816, 56.36909780171042, 22.209626765162913 ], "crps_clim": [ 24.012970318608165, 17.14717700571395, 95.49608165309667, 24.212333377463093, 25.06890034808142, 15.600720521826346, 60.26104362729821, 20.04862260959093 ], "rps": [ 0.4212356033349089, 0.28859052063675916, 0.1892652799508305, 0.3657028974586623, 0.542506286802572, 0.2795366555933117, 0.41080326384275045, 0.41853691637154034 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.41878823842713037, 0.35324432725808413, 0.5497651995010865, 0.41409150307530557, 0.5005547552283075, 0.3283216384408885, 0.5179393125380852, 0.38569803603839053 ], "bias": [ -25.52673754368624, 6.6157896322482115, -81.13012081322039, -3.664287864887514, 43.505254158083375, 13.881637439268403, -65.57432235610149, -17.842970748586513 ], "mae": [ 31.338969872509107, 20.00762779805613, 84.53850552807523, 30.91339642008623, 44.14445965403978, 21.280246307267806, 73.76802943285644, 31.178374116160338 ], "mse": [ 1596.0858807048762, 582.190909585234, 9799.67723351558, 1872.3118865477359, 2296.357597848055, 620.948101294751, 7543.834359215447, 1634.536522210487 ], "var": [ 2302.1685693887707, 1751.4585130979426, 4697.038391230718, 1773.1395028867146, 1916.4594528944942, 2078.0552396488783, 2361.659397892736, 1562.6123484283414 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.00017097565103946878, 0.0, 0.0, 3.419513020789376e-05, 0.00010258539062368126, 3.419513020789376e-05, 6.839026041578751e-05 ] }, "crps": 30.505053477879873, "crpss": 0.13414124574961583, "rps": 0.36452217799891695, "rpss": 0.15921609595050368, "mean_bias_mm": -16.216969762110267, "mean_mae_mm": 42.146201141131385, "mean_rmse_mm": 56.94947595338583, "spread_error_ratio": 0.843094481927999, "zero_fraction": 5.129269531184064e-05, "correlation": 0.690184661547876, "pit_histogram": [ 0.08108, 0.08523, 0.07873, 0.08918, 0.09016, 0.07121, 0.09072, 0.11182, 0.12075, 0.18112 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.2273748232420611 } }, "full": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 24.97624960482249, 21.69615490901032, 23.364816318787447, 26.45983656513685, 96.1856424411659, 32.44397521561333, 32.89611896388114, 39.66679273389863, 15.553578012233872, 22.703147364444565, 39.096670325657215, 18.822247257517557, 18.946417138776745, 30.870991621532426, 35.298984148040866, 21.871527879576877, 19.501793938295943, 40.84908217639287, 26.541902516929333, 26.13479333864114, 18.253342560056005, 31.525949978520718, 22.163577523994697, 21.635826723744188, 20.497335902339007, 14.082097990736386, 53.21729277932909, 15.63949282856504, 25.549385632115545, 15.255827387758224, 38.54420639325298, 39.07175243559984 ], "crps_clim": [ 21.565188759301577, 23.38563063557986, 19.097928412475547, 27.65831750898805, 115.86467554318806, 32.608713982744845, 35.74981363535668, 35.27522856142174, 17.037873658289875, 19.249766823627166, 29.95460921092147, 21.757280334006133, 22.589855526865747, 32.8860898565903, 21.287962454192346, 23.34276551652251, 20.5096382411715, 27.15997168831795, 25.49780817078038, 22.130467654701782, 19.335150240563912, 30.517713481749208, 23.826246347839884, 21.865464318236576, 19.893432351136823, 17.03329139891581, 64.14883327049633, 18.974050124817815, 25.33605920687928, 16.45512833366636, 38.480365999726736, 31.353009520945946 ], "rps": [ 0.48980794405107225, 0.4396979746290682, 0.5274797949410731, 0.5448985118442176, 0.2856545269330501, 0.4650650879318694, 0.4195305425315709, 0.5460825569593667, 0.38277123880569724, 0.5013859000924036, 0.7485379537817075, 0.34127913409603267, 0.43393246858619877, 0.3852357113796699, 0.7247067793153575, 0.4086834735874914, 0.37341662919517926, 0.7454167601187492, 0.4961103289668331, 0.48939320452909596, 0.3546072725337891, 0.48091905994289846, 0.40840733577073757, 0.4560392636662744, 0.43930762256413264, 0.31731122246183435, 0.42260440196930166, 0.3447908606383166, 0.47641483074374746, 0.2971308402270485, 0.4301039033369094, 0.5991596180771085 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4235467576215105, 0.47608889223006146, 0.42116084841535095, 0.52922569582888, 0.5521940842175864, 0.48422399901825147, 0.4817361166669598, 0.48212565828300324, 0.39092541948658205, 0.43695066648742936, 0.5455763971634705, 0.37045590341108353, 0.4938985727810239, 0.45690686490267524, 0.44941552111033356, 0.42409929339583347, 0.4060824902077587, 0.5026173106347752, 0.49052948788469664, 0.41131287431461633, 0.38663843087009825, 0.4959596204449516, 0.4216770610806586, 0.46451823268332443, 0.4095379456154036, 0.3675043388775151, 0.5502738168335921, 0.3945497358652498, 0.47350515274771016, 0.3484831583622997, 0.46150350689172287, 0.4645838963389065 ], "bias": [ -15.605062518607069, 27.462595225039525, 32.30368715158027, 40.94461090781282, -116.55615984348161, -18.74011014543124, -18.794626296981857, -46.76569025643482, 4.83434943726164, 23.22865300285862, 61.15259992898044, 16.905331913207164, 30.263632026948407, -35.15907636596769, 53.943053326653754, -17.20550498905043, 2.2786254176341108, 61.61219874814888, 29.01464959843924, 24.42268024382495, -9.911186645130497, -39.28623191190087, 18.91216196861775, 16.600373829735553, -9.964224132390116, 3.079493112917277, -68.10496713317916, 5.099673789525861, 15.551464488362054, 16.334038965415328, -43.395581133877215, -44.69379655778339 ], "mae": [ 33.739260037385996, 35.05027302727635, 36.495712349202215, 43.342163699364356, 117.47254364143289, 45.35453993643432, 45.45065371262013, 50.814370965306736, 23.9511788755526, 37.62524695203854, 61.22921044265457, 28.03671622719132, 32.599014469306205, 40.539766854553704, 54.38566643709889, 30.22106794408751, 28.449206168105942, 61.74006260057268, 42.24618399184294, 38.273903695315596, 23.83526308912633, 42.074340249437576, 35.13346516005175, 32.388615334287564, 28.07747940644744, 19.08701792414381, 69.77704445472797, 23.079336013460757, 37.47722840257866, 24.93580809247807, 52.05256707901844, 50.77287517327592 ], "mse": [ 2130.4701198846456, 1886.9059365026158, 2125.9441200733822, 2429.515143246516, 19908.501986916406, 3406.084885202662, 3669.8175718841762, 4320.414885995522, 924.1419131014493, 2242.71202424773, 4598.401684394159, 1542.1213360370812, 1501.6606652660178, 2926.4528368708898, 4077.097043447078, 1724.732103893547, 1255.542408543451, 5419.584507497184, 2817.5853481091754, 2435.205934230901, 951.2855795057999, 2805.463771852823, 1930.2508369010536, 1671.4516371972104, 1347.0438881591783, 574.1604331258987, 7000.511347388916, 1066.2632462925003, 2021.7782653576119, 919.92278183492, 4684.597939382521, 4239.210443274564 ], "var": [ 1706.4814437309537, 2115.533801394102, 1757.3819127289544, 1759.4109623945833, 2428.164420768394, 1454.969679915328, 2006.5393646304267, 1959.379208769465, 1451.4839391308287, 2254.149838587862, 2308.402781717944, 2065.7044633972423, 1533.6150927222725, 1640.5151927101697, 1903.6196846362006, 1687.7338045987751, 2222.8254238459476, 2127.9443037652454, 1902.1267841771735, 1713.2407857406542, 2137.056379512326, 1465.5015238021049, 3047.788554384533, 1387.8299694811324, 1741.7927057630452, 1816.4413843862856, 3140.911151816353, 1653.6067103336727, 1546.2354876907805, 2410.020940211533, 1873.4032497416367, 1396.8093584505564 ], "zero": [ 0.037640314780213346, 0.023246788678730427, 0.015105292641646704, 0.014198884279857832, 0.012836595004075635, 0.026504952106515343, 0.022315408193701054, 0.02971579861629889, 0.022873758497731045, 0.01827407320300691, 0.014813811895217806, 0.028354906725111834, 0.020818481368238523, 0.017794785975915797, 0.012492133982274962, 0.029968701398560643, 0.032511087666288276, 0.018587397061821644, 0.028130208466982293, 0.026155053482428067, 0.019705567176697372, 0.018757712900858647, 0.008650633654377224, 0.02618416583200099, 0.03331849634755019, 0.021979607664569085, 0.030034742438953845, 0.04182395265532828, 0.027528533174456825, 0.017299128774855357, 0.01734140961847947, 0.03622263746346888 ] }, "crps": 29.041150331448975, "crpss": -0.008123508018129444, "rps": 0.46174633606899385, "rpss": -0.02129382756832321, "mean_bias_mm": -0.007448276476635485, "mean_mae_mm": 41.4283682001993, "mean_rmse_mm": 56.056565356348315, "spread_error_ratio": 0.7827939545502982, "zero_fraction": 0.02347453192894416, "correlation": 0.11246801351781154, "pit_histogram": [ 0.18905, 0.09796, 0.08077, 0.07541, 0.07521, 0.07302, 0.07852, 0.08961, 0.09525, 0.1452 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.26849660236443507 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 18.971521294647676, 24.29691016901617, 16.36251440906625, 24.464060050845468, 123.09501309249558, 28.80945381750936, 19.811384981476202, 56.01491132884719, 19.178778206566832, 15.519515773552557, 41.75909647355429, 21.707144157994346, 25.624471573946867, 47.938653589961355, 35.7137433736352, 31.079815255695888, 16.773223485568902, 40.277143079309454, 23.400593528817733, 22.29582194464764, 16.783188865333788, 32.90599385974541, 24.36166506384183, 32.67870571329999, 23.132673686384997, 14.118065062384252, 64.13823320953142, 21.8995755274708, 29.613684280684435, 14.89275908774523, 54.42824644720934, 21.258508919098208 ], "crps_clim": [ 20.62823078391462, 22.736075489400832, 17.20303065300768, 33.38592024446952, 148.69890061775828, 32.54163468771625, 20.813924730768786, 45.34936829224909, 21.110172436165435, 18.987977073987647, 35.64746457072699, 24.18698188499711, 30.543634191772295, 49.7010744586202, 22.788748659461, 33.02631501609522, 18.025620044910095, 33.698138045350596, 26.182976675526973, 24.697762649323387, 18.323363286191857, 30.274060611645748, 36.95358378488871, 31.968592033538773, 23.529333965483502, 18.554147550975507, 95.7655520497254, 24.80422585413712, 28.59879576238074, 16.421943505646766, 59.22616150944826, 19.837161306589184 ], "rps": [ 0.4006226653462765, 0.4143579757994004, 0.3207060998559228, 0.3771868789904645, 0.19636649855671354, 0.3932998271555161, 0.42516930564020394, 0.6427461014348035, 0.3912013221964056, 0.31075118783147687, 0.6595636654347896, 0.37648449415062174, 0.4082027161931751, 0.428021739114005, 0.7083220801440224, 0.4496126346939072, 0.3081524431823471, 0.6071339971876137, 0.3635403699759006, 0.3309630754015666, 0.30909243519265145, 0.5107674700077258, 0.21636809453354805, 0.5444410540640646, 0.41603083703249166, 0.29237933376454134, 0.1785154410196696, 0.39049035318768255, 0.5478893524574716, 0.3104826059697009, 0.3959778809850333, 0.4168527987364341 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4353624306832978, 0.4191800777990544, 0.33092642730556393, 0.5345989952281157, 0.5549256946518838, 0.4853155529512196, 0.4290652521208975, 0.49985640326148617, 0.40930380959521595, 0.37730746282751154, 0.5561589821998123, 0.3968450353921786, 0.5352098508957999, 0.5197317160936026, 0.4622154279575823, 0.47965872542692495, 0.3452359656196985, 0.510985845909633, 0.4364472915440719, 0.37533126250969556, 0.33575420241270676, 0.47704841054116015, 0.48221255024125415, 0.5432080506356914, 0.4191937836801347, 0.36236938480584985, 0.5586414801407072, 0.4345261685934756, 0.5204520422939962, 0.3377365051099261, 0.5222952003256466, 0.37908107264058183 ], "bias": [ 8.248928918005234, 24.229827149237632, 15.750946827375241, 40.18641647462826, -144.05422331530008, 22.9797367465422, 22.739887022079344, -65.90937388563154, -3.2716148386485773, -7.943880583512771, 64.81445956349428, 25.408063481963005, 45.468463687731386, -59.19083467999809, 57.6430536394314, -40.415581566632724, 18.845694245515233, 59.10102896838745, 5.286311746229943, 0.061980117712677966, -0.12422653207578935, -39.705597343930805, 2.1917257010993336, 46.51431471951361, -22.241159819718366, 10.317347254417928, -79.00074435554531, 0.010417405271615936, 48.79202179969928, 18.49576565164564, -63.46473338649787, -14.717059921725856 ], "mae": [ 29.653385098956367, 36.52977727867188, 25.056412631483425, 41.37618707451232, 145.3612904384069, 42.57031257590364, 31.78352342677467, 70.83308173188426, 27.508397425478666, 20.886024132055397, 64.81445956349428, 33.83728170832507, 45.4974709318274, 61.67052861140023, 58.37774097873033, 41.908043907425565, 28.550566002642604, 59.414504142876694, 35.34758899351153, 32.0200964259599, 22.626635357969068, 44.33636157521833, 33.77525610514226, 48.86051926860494, 29.28882904904411, 21.05183625450638, 83.18435186844049, 32.145289019881076, 49.082166021464104, 24.173019315870867, 72.01324163933515, 30.012795947020717 ], "mse": [ 1292.5796884852932, 2112.251333668988, 1006.3697438513607, 2139.4431299735425, 28218.096537301215, 2651.390964490985, 1436.3741759644768, 7074.63848130871, 1270.3390011594327, 790.3989843251596, 4624.409312224935, 1885.9963278911112, 2425.637216907922, 5333.0315267216665, 4202.12561412439, 2989.849275571636, 1142.9744763751007, 4791.58118772538, 1962.363647516069, 1685.7914129465519, 819.8676278303806, 2956.7952004994613, 2099.8856469367734, 2901.9547031163347, 1416.0195755502157, 638.6270622074843, 9500.309969146594, 1886.7933171779487, 2774.758707445839, 788.7107594192651, 7176.07929436833, 1495.4656943094574 ], "var": [ 1589.0288039020845, 3049.955094798204, 2013.8007808453438, 1981.1111583053712, 2246.222748708809, 1442.7530368865307, 2061.492314000683, 2145.238015676518, 1421.1832475506892, 1511.369508098257, 2418.3414253979417, 2928.0268233142215, 2275.651850043798, 1840.4918993467281, 2631.979402988731, 2469.143027663169, 2933.9253329001635, 1755.7734391586332, 1876.1581550757935, 2241.3381085387327, 2581.254210878119, 1485.9941007930047, 4467.425265162113, 1714.3437247316926, 2438.8578987325673, 1893.1317664894382, 4818.607067966652, 1913.141787411043, 2126.776071364951, 2278.744601948612, 2435.329207445072, 1660.164210285035 ], "zero": [ 0.00020927419687230978, 0.00020927419687230978, 0.0, 0.0, 6.975806562410326e-05, 0.00020927419687230978, 0.0, 6.975806562410326e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 6.975806562410326e-05, 0.0, 6.975806562410326e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.975806562410326e-05, 6.975806562410326e-05, 6.975806562410326e-05, 0.0, 0.00027903226249641303, 0.0, 0.00013678052083157503, 0.0, 0.0, 3.419513020789376e-05, 6.839026041578751e-05, 3.419513020789376e-05, 3.419513020789376e-05 ] }, "crps": 31.353283415933895, "crpss": 0.07462183342239626, "rps": 0.40755289797612965, "rpss": 0.09847024035664342, "mean_bias_mm": -0.09226997216365884, "mean_mae_mm": 44.48584295321308, "mean_rmse_mm": 59.55326124480454, "spread_error_ratio": 0.8000692313194254, "zero_fraction": 5.321617138603465e-05, "correlation": 0.38523635141510415, "pit_histogram": [ 0.19865, 0.09291, 0.08338, 0.0834, 0.08206, 0.07493, 0.0762, 0.08037, 0.08894, 0.13915 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.27561228132636945 } }, "distribution_full": { "ethiopia": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0002579414554609, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.0014226600493130086 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 0.8100183247003189, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.2637681215814976 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 1.2030955149521791, "area_mean_abs_log": 1.153564004385255 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 1.039006178404134, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.12793571365191259 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9602224201245344, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.11322993989826319 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": 0.019379717705044163 } }, "ondj_domain": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9993125774697929, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.0013252319548509974 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 0.7263376889645503, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.33283444089928954 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 1.5016610238949288, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.46534327579344065 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0544387005741516, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.09711101757958739 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 0.92246562771867, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.12429757722207235 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": 5.321617138603468e-05 } } } }, "eqm": { "training": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 29.50256634622922, 18.677446177894332, 20.385555360766197, 20.156998032167646, 99.9951080866489, 32.789294594074086, 34.239968020038134, 46.13473662934978, 16.23541007560769, 21.922069309872168, 31.376313811161488, 21.060665654623925, 14.16357394947954, 35.586874946312086, 30.3305360442624, 25.874032494035845, 23.063708855882364, 35.13804927844015, 22.094048551621793, 22.519887764913825, 22.403706166860825, 37.301879681830485, 22.701844215023904, 19.53096018199116 ], "crps_clim": [ 22.51064113159216, 21.34178182693399, 17.109998394156545, 24.703975408517493, 122.2696629923497, 34.35098937579959, 37.99006225524478, 38.26557578034132, 17.080571907583543, 17.74984365790482, 26.57914721869575, 20.704500238866018, 20.302011916608773, 36.321622918341355, 19.07649303993666, 24.496312766356763, 20.70257424683409, 24.33223915547966, 23.533815992682083, 20.40174081976945, 20.534635777607914, 33.59238533966214, 24.32853834433991, 20.828282238756913 ], "rps": [ 0.6009000725963617, 0.3873133274116636, 0.4736706211235086, 0.4410947826304378, 0.28317204092447745, 0.4841958244277041, 0.42531930623371894, 0.6398393181223182, 0.3706466397228862, 0.4741342845308105, 0.6136950343373748, 0.38327764623796057, 0.3286050022399402, 0.45624202492634974, 0.604053486796551, 0.4774961391175708, 0.45208550040954826, 0.638718340862575, 0.40956948854007424, 0.43507471136443043, 0.42699304896387275, 0.5563225649800585, 0.3421067026338118, 0.40187425893162265 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.43940389525455414, 0.46658159808332234, 0.4078016609722334, 0.5058326556309144, 0.5395139575622566, 0.49558246733465433, 0.4802715225811077, 0.49404333105867937, 0.39146218082661743, 0.427716413607736, 0.5144532326749148, 0.3688788606345833, 0.45641496128233255, 0.4825359164875749, 0.4144568430509284, 0.43646088297845814, 0.42094222250140517, 0.4840252597737128, 0.47195865794782255, 0.4060822454153488, 0.4076181814082607, 0.4985033826792915, 0.4183880428687596, 0.4537770988799093 ], "bias": [ -22.90536488646611, 24.455110312017432, 26.88059777646901, 35.17066250376264, -121.86767091608453, -25.871888721059584, -25.198533213677035, -54.36258218109315, -1.3080154852838513, 19.781465883674798, 56.98490104854483, 12.400374069327189, 22.17021763540776, -39.98419252536383, 49.875455535436004, -25.445687332085924, -1.4658755330744584, 57.72822629211831, 22.81792344256094, 19.617300847430037, -16.71211652092261, -47.10529190323254, 20.529067695609033, 9.578725157356258 ], "mae": [ 36.716481320337245, 33.10274468840664, 33.48233062375544, 38.367515861007575, 122.39476860766122, 46.45948815889559, 45.0079437842046, 57.04857001561239, 24.125594846948395, 37.03499843477031, 57.090654417167144, 28.336550621977697, 27.224505586388148, 45.12753821635429, 50.50867737498204, 33.91117543021538, 30.315967890032766, 58.07266900956592, 38.9894256819291, 34.11097438363736, 25.086130777033365, 48.81498219591239, 35.6588918442476, 31.440572516221934 ], "mse": [ 2636.229220976672, 1826.0547366324356, 1827.4280069116967, 1932.2085846509908, 20858.28305009791, 3684.9844449827474, 3778.094549861585, 5237.807155415841, 964.2331217755234, 2197.2932080410974, 4072.7466793912263, 1474.333169859466, 1070.1540074365141, 3488.9156400505867, 3594.074572749138, 2116.2635018017904, 1478.3385481562643, 5235.155619525788, 2450.785864555185, 2056.53676715282, 1105.4861679544806, 3635.9372193182103, 2058.0451938642636, 1664.6570233935302 ], "var": [ 2331.3250083971734, 3516.5129479416178, 2701.2242828395792, 2589.273505016417, 2450.9602876638405, 2064.6868351243847, 2950.2661438080777, 2732.0535361434722, 2358.5132349286855, 3582.6205000558966, 3374.622650661525, 3303.785075733181, 2318.3605618387583, 2791.0719830710796, 2959.6540806341854, 2270.0637455664105, 3973.97307911129, 3064.339921957674, 2877.4562573265034, 2570.3270062810393, 3238.4104959447886, 2229.2508485060002, 5225.446664566904, 1959.1314536239095 ], "zero": [ 0.005827852936701176, 0.0022180132779424143, 0.0007750594574688329, 0.0013096233058352762, 0.0020310066315239444, 0.0033190273557087407, 0.0033686834098698194, 0.004117927791393, 0.002967987074407481, 0.0025661435619017377, 0.001469969501376649, 0.003956898095219326, 0.0030801615957172035, 0.0020593039789707744, 0.001123653715430379, 0.002513181893539475, 0.004009838190324307, 0.0025674872641092165, 0.003742369970412218, 0.002992490639399949, 0.0022735351056422737, 0.0014973779208625713, 0.00018698098897664678, 0.002408427522487033 ] }, "crps": 29.29938475954533, "crpss": -0.02042908177834346, "rps": 0.46276667366940116, "rpss": -0.020555062999376705, "mean_bias_mm": -0.17654962577622513, "mean_mae_mm": 42.434548011969355, "mean_rmse_mm": 57.89503650809072, "spread_error_ratio": 0.9290456293217204, "zero_fraction": 0.002599291716050852, "correlation": 0.07008068475344363, "pit_histogram": [ 0.12927, 0.09833, 0.09185, 0.08934, 0.08961, 0.08326, 0.09202, 0.10058, 0.09972, 0.12602 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.11174682406890883 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 19.077287088493264, 26.4055584020201, 18.002722258339766, 18.516972996426, 121.44474631514204, 21.77766919565761, 18.489868820360922, 63.091941453596206, 20.300643436192566, 18.50528951200851, 32.94335076044281, 24.272979224861338, 17.63006877624437, 51.87218948166521, 31.184201700951387, 37.95359040074688, 19.114997640544892, 32.4336721259285, 23.628272444008715, 22.497632793605693, 19.52246423156614, 38.421855676505345, 27.952651275129117, 24.231972699481606 ], "crps_clim": [ 20.16546441774922, 22.76670826790671, 16.94469548167337, 31.09433614253317, 155.68767899429207, 31.182604674802132, 20.063728628019742, 47.67425501377674, 21.053644879747303, 19.513270179453034, 33.170969511215155, 22.839448378093994, 28.243116177805117, 53.561271942272995, 21.37134058167887, 35.54201609868039, 17.47907876438195, 31.583296905530318, 26.57160898637116, 24.874887655242915, 18.60790218298319, 31.38851277619512, 38.48344091464168, 29.783372053088755 ], "rps": [ 0.4002926148207017, 0.4240065308073885, 0.3547508517714645, 0.287380454951233, 0.16839116371539667, 0.2990688503657663, 0.37586743103624365, 0.7494422966246148, 0.39960930455429156, 0.37064355486483525, 0.5204644036161019, 0.3874266365862416, 0.3050717547708435, 0.4802730436242396, 0.6099192608070128, 0.5322246065930003, 0.33074739549553095, 0.48081433850916533, 0.3534660399500752, 0.32510391125394206, 0.3619836182914652, 0.5933342723811793, 0.2032190382423507, 0.4019119708085123 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4283784846339526, 0.42670630481309463, 0.3446648823501038, 0.5130077295664848, 0.5410158900803291, 0.48132609963069506, 0.42143417253271964, 0.499616375801894, 0.4182216041304011, 0.40244267787358307, 0.5388940330394029, 0.3853584884109886, 0.5182825813030848, 0.5208909812511145, 0.44508072206563115, 0.4785608793092128, 0.35798102791050807, 0.4969649369586475, 0.42935647251841336, 0.3854220274094116, 0.34929100974978367, 0.4752706362743161, 0.48976956652503323, 0.5267262488889791 ], "bias": [ 0.38595386031879514, 28.910818546939602, 10.638112265230806, 34.50550580656493, -143.89367616977873, 14.459777468437649, 13.949862200120812, -76.0212136401713, -10.255570672775042, -12.229891765808897, 60.95007634476606, 24.485319591613752, 38.783062184393515, -62.64387297070474, 54.04177165842188, -48.20737035126709, 20.41467469441977, 51.72888018444305, -1.0715527349117593, -3.074033881995725, -7.22685538388807, -48.502576015905895, 11.838208799407445, 41.36010838195803 ], "mae": [ 27.469468422728934, 41.022606242295794, 25.529362098416275, 35.912663841064706, 144.86135833466616, 36.84491879891419, 26.456402530758524, 79.04596759303934, 28.415174163007638, 22.440996910347412, 60.95007634476606, 34.78355940942913, 38.97481044763789, 65.7462349150682, 55.07017331074324, 49.05452634444797, 29.747124942035008, 52.34860166756194, 34.92778687795732, 29.435786115346698, 21.36395396586134, 51.51638054603568, 37.787618595247565, 43.97427569294906 ], "mse": [ 1229.546653206505, 2788.2103132876514, 1040.7529868274992, 1652.3393614616941, 27817.94527333866, 2276.3803256755687, 1088.9679232281403, 8541.78319687092, 1373.0404874265112, 903.7693757455096, 4144.304444711415, 1865.414360368854, 1822.175283407005, 6044.697192800702, 3738.983051493959, 3773.870471895413, 1291.2871236487183, 4118.081394104392, 1964.6318101446066, 1493.0428061424623, 837.1079247519618, 3806.4719442818296, 2501.760580548194, 2433.3707796549293 ], "var": [ 2484.2702566393336, 5809.417598581351, 3291.5574009242587, 3103.8952822336573, 2434.998192140037, 2069.161188308225, 2945.7810089900136, 2503.03191427656, 2244.5850618720265, 2855.1346127999095, 3798.7415412235705, 5461.252575930714, 3590.588823579035, 3410.7915237088264, 4178.7691794376715, 3400.086310014422, 5898.81529080219, 2642.9673070204985, 2988.2398451690437, 3550.755181151661, 3626.815136876105, 2118.4086298036273, 8165.830325747106, 2814.5979284781783 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 31.219691612913294, "crpss": 0.06299538792903303, "rps": 0.4048088893517332, "rpss": 0.10660104131820536, "mean_bias_mm": -0.27810340000713296, "mean_mae_mm": 44.73665950459692, "mean_rmse_mm": 60.74123224281808, "spread_error_ratio": 0.98199766072819, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.27534685381925517, "pit_histogram": [ 0.10874, 0.08319, 0.09105, 0.10607, 0.11885, 0.101, 0.09512, 0.08295, 0.09069, 0.12235 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.11400394337928821 } }, "operational": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 22.666630329181082, 16.38733577377334, 52.514597173973094, 15.852212806375789, 24.22211224266682, 16.1591643749308, 40.353749964411314, 43.42402412424324 ], "crps_clim": [ 20.32105586449988, 16.40570046524331, 65.52791755840862, 17.64632053938275, 24.293868622000836, 16.66802739812226, 40.184015667195084, 32.98246918464377 ], "rps": [ 0.46283548043964884, 0.38258850651630766, 0.4649198138366416, 0.3550510310805793, 0.4599403832018496, 0.30396507798831507, 0.45890798669124727, 0.6755455984905401 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4122606865060767, 0.37346476193268074, 0.5449498617316163, 0.36687869557844566, 0.47023810687668466, 0.3514902720415714, 0.4617152805402287, 0.46890906592470627 ], "bias": [ -15.48376563199968, -3.746521466678289, -66.7068411566255, -2.17582553594698, 8.95554581773887, 12.4339680258448, -45.87096825325466, -51.14437748459406 ], "mae": [ 29.640338250756468, 18.43968452749468, 68.16077055839074, 19.96810687243076, 35.40219410088185, 22.601754322090542, 53.60331650427203, 54.67595907924303 ], "mse": [ 1513.0517605838395, 555.884233590381, 6531.482683458891, 970.3315808873552, 1791.2823723627553, 816.274352676656, 4961.935398283357, 4918.419961311238 ], "var": [ 2724.208159319631, 2568.114694402445, 4796.320396326515, 2253.48218291483, 2338.890292528613, 3704.0432453182534, 3140.5714475770897, 1865.161573816018 ], "zero": [ 0.003891786822353878, 0.0028455536948531254, 0.004574546752453832, 0.007102623143607121, 0.0033309262888257312, 0.0022941774912636223, 0.001821726076582935, 0.005202495807823568 ] }, "crps": 28.947478348694432, "crpss": 0.010466842065472659, "rps": 0.4454692347806412, "rpss": -0.03300006521502774, "mean_bias_mm": -20.467348210689437, "mean_mae_mm": 37.81151552694501, "mean_rmse_mm": 52.51031130067988, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0297525521707982, "zero_fraction": 0.0038829795097204767, "correlation": 0.26080179391938124, "pit_histogram": [ 0.01724, 0.02842, 0.04509, 0.068, 0.11425, 0.12376, 0.12616, 0.14933, 0.14406, 0.18368 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.4825043917670546 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 27.996983102917678, 15.481220715353102, 55.68464449469641, 22.02338969098545, 22.369774107711667, 16.13524409343763, 52.94257655628013, 24.60746558833661 ], "crps_clim": [ 24.012970318608165, 17.14717700571395, 95.49608165309667, 24.212333377463093, 25.06890034808142, 15.600720521826346, 60.26104362729821, 20.04862260959093 ], "rps": [ 0.4823942339137687, 0.3290292346515398, 0.19323851377821932, 0.3614879779505037, 0.4368646683907543, 0.3289372189613267, 0.4131132177601712, 0.46893937018838566 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.41878823842713037, 0.35324432725808413, 0.5497651995010865, 0.41409150307530557, 0.5005547552283075, 0.3283216384408885, 0.5179393125380852, 0.38569803603839053 ], "bias": [ -27.053718710107983, 3.7815143109067355, -69.09050357146437, -7.329965611447245, 41.557487312226364, 12.631338022472741, -60.1547317418026, -22.423106650692073 ], "mae": [ 32.44194636853639, 18.25528279687893, 72.78433743179296, 29.011720628362948, 42.27102881913913, 20.733564509454343, 70.11149257269226, 31.28084110311315 ], "mse": [ 1660.3728393557153, 523.60976646849, 7437.570588967742, 1823.389264943911, 2135.9858461753656, 605.2598673266584, 6901.238099919857, 1691.5141200059284 ], "var": [ 3815.0248134061285, 2927.1842050440223, 7819.281438505238, 2753.362322442807, 3236.801585827524, 3741.729282743673, 4869.575296628369, 2378.901714532984 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 29.655162293714834, "crpss": 0.15826464951624541, "rps": 0.37675055444933364, "rpss": 0.13101089277573597, "mean_bias_mm": -16.01021082998855, "mean_mae_mm": 39.611276778746266, "mean_rmse_mm": 53.3607304030357, "spread_error_ratio": 1.1767301888022135, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.693232726733034, "pit_histogram": [ 0.02472, 0.03944, 0.0562, 0.08586, 0.13989, 0.1281, 0.12754, 0.16226, 0.12491, 0.11108 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.3875598902293766 } }, "full": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 26.685552889337057, 20.72913541902825, 23.0467442640327, 23.21014010166971, 90.26233648211497, 29.91933461026426, 31.92110855528949, 41.86756493693792, 15.89595888269569, 23.063423146791603, 35.54930477576205, 21.018039937338944, 15.793113387540675, 31.37458801282582, 34.38330029721664, 24.03972764664348, 21.967126611733818, 38.948256705263255, 24.640100895822535, 25.32823279671801, 20.119375618433025, 32.734777789809044, 24.26902478893374, 19.26923993473823, 21.569721426087543, 15.422664449007131, 49.69299897088981, 15.786333541881765, 24.908757457067157, 16.59560379389282, 37.783458307539014, 40.4404177493133 ], "crps_clim": [ 21.565188759301577, 23.38563063557986, 19.097928412475547, 27.65831750898805, 115.86467554318806, 32.608713982744845, 35.74981363535668, 35.27522856142174, 17.037873658289875, 19.249766823627166, 29.95460921092147, 21.757280334006133, 22.589855526865747, 32.8860898565903, 21.287962454192346, 23.34276551652251, 20.5096382411715, 27.15997168831795, 25.49780817078038, 22.130467654701782, 19.335150240563912, 30.517713481749208, 23.826246347839884, 21.865464318236576, 19.893432351136823, 17.03329139891581, 64.14883327049633, 18.974050124817815, 25.33605920687928, 16.45512833366636, 38.480365999726736, 31.353009520945946 ], "rps": [ 0.5467801691477042, 0.4034078011094272, 0.5155545767325813, 0.4661256615809065, 0.27254794187425735, 0.44323092662023234, 0.4158656741773175, 0.5980321662266392, 0.37724181273296203, 0.4968058403396154, 0.6598687883155011, 0.3699562174432769, 0.35758631567898386, 0.4161876797479286, 0.6921290883422117, 0.4576923626112, 0.42420610912891343, 0.6853757378310492, 0.44008143938024913, 0.47086165890285875, 0.394995739804343, 0.5263011015238683, 0.40598833963895636, 0.40025258201772906, 0.45019264588046926, 0.3483928619895306, 0.4506040362203813, 0.346919046401823, 0.45904866614096446, 0.3153412015005969, 0.4509830276396085, 0.6490200633705948 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4235467576215105, 0.47608889223006146, 0.42116084841535095, 0.52922569582888, 0.5521940842175864, 0.48422399901825147, 0.4817361166669598, 0.48212565828300324, 0.39092541948658205, 0.43695066648742936, 0.5455763971634705, 0.37045590341108353, 0.4938985727810239, 0.45690686490267524, 0.44941552111033356, 0.42409929339583347, 0.4060824902077587, 0.5026173106347752, 0.49052948788469664, 0.41131287431461633, 0.38663843087009825, 0.4959596204449516, 0.4216770610806586, 0.46451823268332443, 0.4095379456154036, 0.3675043388775151, 0.5502738168335921, 0.3945497358652498, 0.47350515274771016, 0.3484831583622997, 0.46150350689172287, 0.4645838963389065 ], "bias": [ -18.61001132088157, 29.399602249225826, 32.0249284127455, 39.67877878630074, -113.03906011458525, -20.697300281913396, -19.314249284669714, -48.51399291811888, 4.001174001147129, 24.222866922751603, 61.75860512631472, 17.163155916029886, 27.689058471124817, -34.18901034879105, 55.25960298725197, -19.174804562254977, 3.329695247080276, 62.21978055482152, 28.353268053323458, 25.15512559261658, -11.080587047102606, -40.971202290514924, 25.293657597340555, 14.329065489733583, -10.70676988077939, 1.0182778190612292, -64.04642424162938, 2.6872826427567365, 14.757700561377398, 18.272202279362485, -41.89409519044408, -47.64389525474912 ], "mae": [ 34.19914869616277, 35.825751377291965, 36.94959770113051, 42.04409874528015, 113.94743690624709, 43.29251875993903, 43.39504061555201, 52.21919319653874, 24.13229227490585, 38.64352298392713, 61.84287914809484, 29.399613458734297, 30.61240158041204, 40.4949278548424, 55.67021566748355, 31.74253732982379, 30.471300422169524, 62.36727361879061, 42.068327781321756, 38.210962149989804, 23.679670755586642, 43.662383023822414, 38.783950159529255, 31.412630116731975, 28.324699294369797, 18.2535922149866, 65.5685773098741, 21.645669374961553, 37.06499530933447, 25.102078284659427, 50.9610369728415, 51.88064590975713 ], "mse": [ 2303.398400995393, 1989.4241332740203, 2204.1944539190886, 2308.142786646873, 18448.655832204822, 3209.628524658255, 3423.7574251831907, 4578.2332235794465, 944.7341269084214, 2365.068654932633, 4721.02605017156, 1642.706062098003, 1332.262847015543, 2916.5551060069606, 4265.090066846369, 1850.1547807850172, 1428.221204378549, 5807.878211030127, 2813.5115046208607, 2471.2940525442705, 955.2442092040628, 2994.925462060131, 2347.478125864806, 1604.9325518653043, 1354.5222842776661, 531.6074005125683, 6126.836914338767, 1002.270287158212, 1978.8362685359405, 965.7670815658639, 4517.544682968952, 4458.897639750354 ], "var": [ 2325.772735088024, 3415.8145465277307, 2612.0606211915638, 2497.6162854114905, 2880.185566466613, 2052.839245714532, 2885.293032934542, 2796.957823164057, 2290.915336964086, 3370.3976306823747, 3305.9900721356653, 3370.750401911918, 2348.07643707081, 2729.549084489824, 2841.576269760884, 2390.9904105163855, 3853.4943362988893, 2899.764261102783, 2791.335371872222, 2527.317912627981, 3217.9591891365662, 2210.8032194893103, 4576.1161012894945, 1996.2087326700434, 2756.335212803179, 2649.1909444830717, 4605.594579408379, 2325.086759289759, 2363.6166837728388, 3681.6095405284755, 3101.159914806455, 1891.3957840128744 ], "zero": [ 0.004223330598349251, 0.0012571419638212646, 0.00023954662746497273, 0.001043101295751104, 0.0019509504351261225, 0.002222602578458621, 0.0028356199716518113, 0.002888249823190689, 0.0018174206827969942, 0.0021383755854070662, 0.0010959429268338288, 0.002968079350954773, 0.001849052832393071, 0.0012578231557244302, 0.0002945523515793397, 0.0014163787327140707, 0.0021376819089280507, 0.001685985722976261, 0.002646779197873997, 0.0024054787026303297, 0.0014183917713963615, 0.0009891065134633335, 5.328206434852625e-05, 0.0016863181028618055, 0.0028433637424061103, 0.0016259221501793864, 0.003289505601711952, 0.006225772389149947, 0.0022037886394453373, 0.0017435453411427599, 0.001127427609920675, 0.0043241642269978234 ] }, "crps": 28.694858255706855, "crpss": 0.0038975441169155634, "rps": 0.45961179000164626, "rpss": -0.016572623407178355, "mean_bias_mm": -0.10211168831463624, "mean_mae_mm": 41.37090528109665, "mean_rmse_mm": 55.86333780863741, "spread_error_ratio": 0.9575362607340677, "zero_fraction": 0.0020595213311765644, "correlation": 0.10833727683833369, "pit_histogram": [ 0.12908, 0.09567, 0.08588, 0.08653, 0.09463, 0.09028, 0.09649, 0.10494, 0.09926, 0.11723 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.10250881614687403 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 17.864056929321535, 26.89242059506066, 17.79348895088997, 20.026720604973814, 107.93198839814292, 22.53039721876394, 18.987385940713096, 59.447453452379236, 19.44480567009258, 17.39043492214193, 35.39143619727752, 24.61630872753516, 19.370095184829772, 47.477327995677534, 33.70559339289039, 34.49766397648846, 19.30616367381748, 35.32634990932725, 23.623096363876215, 22.763159258627606, 18.332559300592813, 35.81167410186145, 28.52022615506355, 25.919147042527264, 26.944510763347434, 15.319320455361659, 54.30846628632348, 21.87895430004439, 25.577239215542754, 16.2981524846162, 51.339636269175465, 23.17701738827016 ], "crps_clim": [ 20.62823078391462, 22.736075489400832, 17.20303065300768, 33.38592024446952, 148.69890061775828, 32.54163468771625, 20.813924730768786, 45.34936829224909, 21.110172436165435, 18.987977073987647, 35.64746457072699, 24.18698188499711, 30.543634191772295, 49.7010744586202, 22.788748659461, 33.02631501609522, 18.025620044910095, 33.698138045350596, 26.182976675526973, 24.697762649323387, 18.323363286191857, 30.274060611645748, 36.95358378488871, 31.968592033538773, 23.529333965483502, 18.554147550975507, 95.7655520497254, 24.80422585413712, 28.59879576238074, 16.421943505646766, 59.22616150944826, 19.837161306589184 ], "rps": [ 0.3864522777291935, 0.43405391156263745, 0.3604518131241983, 0.29290697818382283, 0.16844063221175695, 0.29131858620928375, 0.38787136420007523, 0.7165884025946279, 0.38597553098392157, 0.35290585095728944, 0.5274359154620188, 0.39183741828672713, 0.3121939516726125, 0.455692305260094, 0.6405014956562017, 0.5224492092802311, 0.32784475583528216, 0.5050526686267042, 0.38209542932367435, 0.3401234932073268, 0.34929792931201603, 0.5795138177551878, 0.21367812060768368, 0.4137945116052236, 0.4836944054225583, 0.3213111129004684, 0.18457088641628389, 0.37225893767614715, 0.45168898699225485, 0.33135366178875975, 0.41177839739537875, 0.4484828305521366 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4353624306832978, 0.4191800777990544, 0.33092642730556393, 0.5345989952281157, 0.5549256946518838, 0.4853155529512196, 0.4290652521208975, 0.49985640326148617, 0.40930380959521595, 0.37730746282751154, 0.5561589821998123, 0.3968450353921786, 0.5352098508957999, 0.5197317160936026, 0.4622154279575823, 0.47965872542692495, 0.3452359656196985, 0.510985845909633, 0.4364472915440719, 0.37533126250969556, 0.33575420241270676, 0.47704841054116015, 0.48221255024125415, 0.5432080506356914, 0.4191937836801347, 0.36236938480584985, 0.5586414801407072, 0.4345261685934756, 0.5204520422939962, 0.3377365051099261, 0.5222952003256466, 0.37908107264058183 ], "bias": [ 3.5940154866459286, 32.46515893337084, 14.225929610910901, 37.16654056997033, -133.16220253332574, 17.760770590007205, 18.29906372915271, -71.09268713562267, -6.181168557340049, -8.196467696085318, 64.38381104036596, 27.884716562321664, 42.511753549472516, -57.98239684611103, 58.50529444503229, -42.95491767188047, 24.137995578414543, 55.84419040290927, 4.066946090798962, 1.3421046783795778, -2.7075829147635067, -43.6579937630095, 14.781241786674727, 44.14445804245278, -23.62544565762505, 7.51095216793107, -67.99413305623818, -3.4354792223305033, 47.115727311609156, 17.229397353895653, -58.38784019872354, -19.418777051844025 ], "mae": [ 27.123651086009833, 41.15963679351983, 25.541633943115176, 38.34791866588454, 134.40189210616592, 37.520817735298145, 29.214080527133426, 74.65533138639948, 27.58790498467387, 20.892601060629904, 64.38381104036596, 37.16369079231151, 42.600481463114164, 60.892399221638684, 59.16340800447378, 44.35621533275003, 31.85941068486793, 56.208173962744965, 35.288862528792315, 31.161178542037757, 21.627389580558365, 48.048217689774134, 40.187971080059526, 45.95375717978139, 30.1934003118675, 19.26466706717915, 71.85920631696, 30.1107917082238, 47.44074114158618, 23.281214713654123, 68.29634705996948, 30.001481357538136 ], "mse": [ 1155.132346720971, 2649.431154529703, 1049.204359436189, 1874.5644303988017, 24448.44301606903, 2253.841350856975, 1287.5209395003578, 7751.032161402164, 1292.3855441073913, 772.2592672144775, 4582.800688358329, 2136.674398460183, 2159.520228656936, 5271.884643071516, 4237.027838919278, 3212.4323224946706, 1423.7266818266924, 4611.131328802776, 1960.753718606954, 1595.6686239224075, 792.15962080133, 3359.781158899136, 2812.5637334766234, 2623.071612773848, 1465.1571530769334, 562.9417373615971, 7238.120783770448, 1814.0262832044652, 2625.4619552635354, 762.1280677375158, 6541.393300947145, 1529.68154707444 ], "var": [ 2416.1779908960257, 5601.079301793245, 3234.580163605536, 3019.1957666298945, 3366.935325873712, 2010.5303337788762, 2955.137268631844, 2740.4886781756545, 2300.143255413999, 2733.5851278703562, 3851.739766621625, 5417.804462126674, 3635.1817907112404, 3420.7078926696445, 4169.406264578907, 3611.9569120649676, 5752.6020524673895, 2685.8121063842627, 3064.603278064016, 3579.6745513011083, 3761.656939625111, 2205.0353930414403, 7025.28752351612, 2711.4519952081014, 3987.421517051233, 3065.1937353217786, 7482.967002012547, 2841.6851255963547, 3311.9633026018223, 3871.4014059052042, 4731.894781419714, 2442.330121981545 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 30.244164097673554, "crpss": 0.10735699508415564, "rps": 0.39823798714974307, "rpss": 0.11907534305647371, "mean_bias_mm": -0.18209451170573487, "mean_mae_mm": 43.61838390840872, "mean_rmse_mm": 58.05490989080479, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0415723377281678, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.3857753103505474, "pit_histogram": [ 0.10454, 0.08309, 0.0905, 0.10482, 0.11705, 0.09781, 0.0984, 0.10422, 0.09875, 0.10082 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.06290040916111925 } }, "distribution_full": { "ethiopia": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9995667960755554, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.0033080123742003356 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9957107815577494, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.012819043418826706 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9664672177639554, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.049125046737972654 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9999420960128939, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.007127011624048907 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0307294021025906, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.0393576674217389 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": -0.0020352928927234184 } }, "ondj_domain": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9986824294538623, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.0026009458797931527 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9908702987910024, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.011871475086596884 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9591279641927453, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.049336449641740415 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9997462360674146, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.004972217668588134 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0328441064027523, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.04105260659254998 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": 0.0 } } } }, "gqm": { "training": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 28.08056732844864, 19.278129315327085, 20.515247714197795, 20.72888614703839, 96.0918571753586, 32.42812582073007, 33.7432346940221, 45.02638801769336, 16.031942008535005, 21.697741755863657, 32.088211461274035, 20.275669330890356, 14.058425308609696, 34.126286978279275, 30.17212024213574, 24.985919359485937, 21.67072996211291, 35.28914599262152, 22.906444739596857, 22.62238705864417, 21.082923340855352, 36.20921942392387, 21.45702400245946, 19.115297364230315 ], "crps_clim": [ 22.51064113159216, 21.34178182693399, 17.109998394156545, 24.703975408517493, 122.2696629923497, 34.35098937579959, 37.99006225524478, 38.26557578034132, 17.080571907583543, 17.74984365790482, 26.57914721869575, 20.704500238866018, 20.302011916608773, 36.321622918341355, 19.07649303993666, 24.496312766356763, 20.70257424683409, 24.33223915547966, 23.533815992682083, 20.40174081976945, 20.534635777607914, 33.59238533966214, 24.32853834433991, 20.828282238756913 ], "rps": [ 0.5506289107746352, 0.3989541547508531, 0.4864331723056807, 0.4616920664536168, 0.29213484108783844, 0.46438760270041624, 0.4099598338289377, 0.6199760921125113, 0.3654440312718869, 0.47552905508161164, 0.6373128640779817, 0.36137652750690485, 0.3208079855453164, 0.44306950577177395, 0.5916007590679475, 0.4573824753234841, 0.4144278191980037, 0.6578553730509119, 0.4451392278247815, 0.44799002518523334, 0.3962622869307882, 0.5324626169866863, 0.3331121376397451, 0.38763870715443177 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.43940389525455414, 0.46658159808332234, 0.4078016609722334, 0.5058326556309144, 0.5395139575622566, 0.49558246733465433, 0.4802715225811077, 0.49404333105867937, 0.39146218082661743, 0.427716413607736, 0.5144532326749148, 0.3688788606345833, 0.45641496128233255, 0.4825359164875749, 0.4144568430509284, 0.43646088297845814, 0.42094222250140517, 0.4840252597737128, 0.47195865794782255, 0.4060822454153488, 0.4076181814082607, 0.4985033826792915, 0.4183880428687596, 0.4537770988799093 ], "bias": [ -23.771162889599548, 24.63022293943417, 26.745843280015276, 34.49236643189079, -120.15011192849796, -26.34761507939527, -25.611363649361525, -54.324102597193686, -1.518420062781503, 18.990404187035445, 57.284317802754366, 12.20280665861056, 22.943498165145595, -40.21395617872972, 49.94625388930821, -24.787022408619073, -0.562462667444377, 57.20095319998183, 23.054113664130842, 19.408976780115925, -16.304786851686206, -46.66510377575955, 21.418302499918525, 9.357376272773333 ], "mae": [ 37.33330287080615, 33.08754121746907, 33.48511042638035, 37.73428479041375, 120.68632713814206, 46.56903412792137, 45.37243213908372, 56.96158989730099, 24.116491546176086, 36.19905332836519, 57.38129054619004, 28.266178919139687, 27.40143280137826, 44.867630034911826, 50.58543116354649, 33.49884748293501, 30.537826217168803, 57.49683914354601, 38.98312428430293, 34.29992473917222, 25.228238044814958, 48.346623102855446, 35.83218467865124, 31.272601531357743 ], "mse": [ 2690.128810148999, 1796.4102134294487, 1807.9358828443478, 1872.2168996826367, 20269.3443541628, 3726.410996064304, 3860.567745816621, 5225.6952187607585, 966.8096820870072, 2084.0108341432665, 4105.409511718862, 1476.791912653313, 1081.7784012123027, 3448.5702306431194, 3597.2464686696053, 2065.829340819578, 1477.9821324130487, 5086.661121519626, 2450.570864523438, 2059.4717953209383, 1110.8914452850802, 3557.08218514817, 2010.552266211304, 1636.1494833439936 ], "var": [ 2208.1222547785055, 3290.714171874152, 2336.2865395576773, 2299.6998354917964, 2925.118434762916, 1829.7659536657736, 2588.5280020354103, 2489.627275158314, 1974.7896226183493, 3056.960553154976, 3218.6231585592695, 3131.4375982395886, 2089.923996158518, 2366.586007656381, 2724.4084605148405, 2153.67117048299, 3742.25288979372, 2801.510301902964, 2491.604330940526, 2259.647699374736, 2897.0584141109257, 1864.260337913001, 5487.815883480559, 1870.8782511962327 ], "zero": [ 0.047086844306635484, 0.034325255182706224, 0.025040242570591485, 0.02290199004040153, 0.018458258560632726, 0.038073197061456086, 0.03180959932626077, 0.04089459537331093, 0.03304004758320073, 0.025179132063863543, 0.025647221057975268, 0.03897156999377344, 0.0312720697675645, 0.026887030403873836, 0.02141721642877206, 0.039663893394737686, 0.04115450764180852, 0.026936750871194296, 0.039305883618934924, 0.03700059909395786, 0.028719752036246833, 0.029849499347027304, 0.016867759191663168, 0.037195881519624205 ] }, "crps": 28.73674685593059, "crpss": -0.0008337188015752339, "rps": 0.45631575298466576, "rpss": -0.006328628512183521, "mean_bias_mm": -0.10752801324806309, "mean_mae_mm": 42.31430584050123, "mean_rmse_mm": 57.5414769958095, "spread_error_ratio": 0.8981316212491748, "zero_fraction": 0.03157078318484222, "correlation": 0.08924073578141951, "pit_histogram": [ 0.12105, 0.11789, 0.09135, 0.08432, 0.08556, 0.08322, 0.08949, 0.10024, 0.10229, 0.12459 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.13211751879347627 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 17.88060624674019, 26.158703754351187, 17.27901213130151, 18.299560945518376, 114.3638326210932, 21.732254916966642, 17.459619708324674, 62.50897549584613, 20.0501431589348, 18.22924893962119, 33.01372927419736, 23.733953082418306, 17.474681790018185, 50.7376640700927, 30.716290457826396, 37.45031682189827, 18.489441725550545, 32.42683059806163, 23.160982285000763, 21.60163183788043, 18.96588617396365, 37.86019837910398, 25.749335864406547, 23.90858277636806 ], "crps_clim": [ 20.16546441774922, 22.76670826790671, 16.94469548167337, 31.09433614253317, 155.68767899429207, 31.182604674802132, 20.063728628019742, 47.67425501377674, 21.053644879747303, 19.513270179453034, 33.170969511215155, 22.839448378093994, 28.243116177805117, 53.561271942272995, 21.37134058167887, 35.54201609868039, 17.47907876438195, 31.583296905530318, 26.57160898637116, 24.874887655242915, 18.60790218298319, 31.38851277619512, 38.48344091464168, 29.783372053088755 ], "rps": [ 0.3655915182332841, 0.41702670346767307, 0.3424354480611604, 0.27659654208775863, 0.19564337319643252, 0.2912833833780147, 0.3581311867039743, 0.7412393381248065, 0.38999935126449536, 0.3625180496327143, 0.517228048617128, 0.3769495925484034, 0.29660323520287146, 0.4872192095628602, 0.5908548875704915, 0.521349151996689, 0.3195363305835945, 0.4803652685495462, 0.3454469096631753, 0.30385567485515974, 0.3466782520604337, 0.5778517168056758, 0.20295189363783162, 0.3925142997973671 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4283784846339526, 0.42670630481309463, 0.3446648823501038, 0.5130077295664848, 0.5410158900803291, 0.48132609963069506, 0.42143417253271964, 0.499616375801894, 0.4182216041304011, 0.40244267787358307, 0.5388940330394029, 0.3853584884109886, 0.5182825813030848, 0.5208909812511145, 0.44508072206563115, 0.4785608793092128, 0.35798102791050807, 0.4969649369586475, 0.42935647251841336, 0.3854220274094116, 0.34929100974978367, 0.4752706362743161, 0.48976956652503323, 0.5267262488889791 ], "bias": [ 0.26440358233717426, 28.748589128068048, 10.094696639240368, 33.16577846713033, -141.2060963514975, 13.99401487095413, 13.667505014356731, -75.67700110876899, -10.64735875729036, -12.33112872630756, 61.468281788610305, 24.301400028001996, 38.65908765921259, -62.15368540889773, 54.60129736832842, -47.81911223719454, 21.65840350049721, 51.379896930161685, -0.9188599807049262, -3.5656109113894336, -6.274632504261559, -48.03219685880654, 14.01624786067551, 40.34145188810545 ], "mae": [ 27.61784821079634, 40.338841241756164, 25.272429028002513, 34.83296202288867, 142.14809038125136, 36.44910449431043, 26.360424584771916, 78.90266795186135, 28.40304704606549, 22.359619106917297, 61.468281788610305, 34.3961708843343, 38.7510391937141, 65.62395609912687, 55.61122943682773, 48.470326828413, 30.693631631426396, 51.993331410425206, 34.51614526583281, 30.034128525923617, 21.88222733717166, 50.910639418145436, 37.89506085895175, 43.144081521911886 ], "mse": [ 1237.2107039578302, 2668.194216300652, 1021.7785768265645, 1563.6396556020122, 26490.546071243472, 2252.519916633957, 1087.6703506965318, 8506.711487001408, 1384.0050499924967, 893.7545635460284, 4208.542995828268, 1849.1468326020952, 1802.7017479790275, 5985.768326933481, 3793.8920749539625, 3686.6482060819662, 1338.7324723591764, 4059.5804979764976, 1929.4472480983918, 1557.6881080390544, 860.7579054639898, 3719.1538670830055, 2377.380945982888, 2337.7276055767225 ], "var": [ 2357.7879466778536, 5556.35608434211, 2953.182992596753, 2857.5126651412024, 3387.066844537831, 1931.609200954815, 2764.4449023111306, 2579.4532427167396, 2077.841379468593, 2434.296211302509, 3809.0944738651674, 5144.06180559653, 3366.085975346563, 3153.635709210988, 4080.4019102300776, 3371.5457808306055, 5935.367943699706, 2458.849764886378, 2729.321788679119, 3230.444395173947, 3643.07907211998, 2010.594921889436, 9486.000914521292, 2585.4820954445995 ], "zero": [ 0.00020927419687230978, 6.975806562410326e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00013951613124820651, 0.0, 6.975806562410326e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 6.975806562410326e-05, 0.0, 6.975806562410326e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.975806562410326e-05, 6.975806562410326e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00020927419687230978 ] }, "crps": 30.3854784606452, "crpss": 0.08803284123949906, "rps": 0.39582789023339754, "rpss": 0.12642179000060783, "mean_bias_mm": -0.0943595049766337, "mean_mae_mm": 44.50313684455986, "mean_rmse_mm": 60.073981967639796, "spread_error_ratio": 0.9842332776168247, "zero_fraction": 4.069220494739356e-05, "correlation": 0.2959016957697079, "pit_histogram": [ 0.10745, 0.10054, 0.09126, 0.09785, 0.10897, 0.09971, 0.09683, 0.08807, 0.09338, 0.11593 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.06578500922433583 } }, "operational": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 22.600364553272136, 15.361164092291636, 51.14865790789841, 15.330790188472392, 23.21280686119239, 15.18621012783502, 39.66680658484289, 42.607338303946 ], "crps_clim": [ 20.32105586449988, 16.40570046524331, 65.52791755840862, 17.64632053938275, 24.293868622000836, 16.66802739812226, 40.184015667195084, 32.98246918464377 ], "rps": [ 0.4673190010270001, 0.36254478359652587, 0.4513447998855228, 0.3436498334619297, 0.4441966915513099, 0.2888941749603004, 0.4537042582537644, 0.6437639839318516 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4122606865060767, 0.37346476193268074, 0.5449498617316163, 0.36687869557844566, 0.47023810687668466, 0.3514902720415714, 0.4617152805402287, 0.46890906592470627 ], "bias": [ -15.430170023776618, -3.622990937831181, -65.4958305777162, -2.227488183909955, 8.994621916372882, 12.110900390301683, -45.879585345559406, -51.29041090869232 ], "mae": [ 29.693603547039526, 18.457285440330985, 67.06134744408217, 19.89514752351298, 35.070760318821016, 22.469515395116193, 53.75475074927101, 54.82760860027441 ], "mse": [ 1513.9838548721007, 560.0922239805093, 6408.670562403861, 963.8721369308919, 1763.4051985453564, 805.9019817485862, 4983.550664071805, 4923.0065675626665 ], "var": [ 2496.7388792106394, 2438.4523189539327, 5363.108980165254, 2097.27196694494, 2118.448907688308, 3357.2754400095605, 2913.0433466456006, 1808.0573348637931 ], "zero": [ 0.043174723601409476, 0.029552981450302093, 0.03723131244315604, 0.04973739791483941, 0.03585812961059287, 0.024523615405642733, 0.025297245387679787, 0.04308030691537826 ] }, "crps": 28.13926732746886, "crpss": 0.03809451983682155, "rps": 0.4319271908335256, "rpss": -0.0015973752236444483, "mean_bias_mm": -20.35511920885139, "mean_mae_mm": 37.653752377306034, "mean_rmse_mm": 52.34797416103581, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0151641776509435, "zero_fraction": 0.036056964091125084, "correlation": 0.2558735806350637, "pit_histogram": [ 0.01656, 0.04172, 0.05313, 0.06868, 0.10414, 0.11823, 0.1212, 0.141, 0.14815, 0.18719 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.43982664901773805 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 27.97732690035459, 14.801510093291448, 53.6824752338069, 21.639014967274466, 22.20737639523139, 15.11160960510719, 52.483284770894954, 23.95624324444516 ], "crps_clim": [ 24.012970318608165, 17.14717700571395, 95.49608165309667, 24.212333377463093, 25.06890034808142, 15.600720521826346, 60.26104362729821, 20.04862260959093 ], "rps": [ 0.4828929678675832, 0.3217426233781384, 0.19830843439073284, 0.3640000812173423, 0.43401640524665186, 0.31137013212477177, 0.4258287042559999, 0.45231425949179244 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.41878823842713037, 0.35324432725808413, 0.5497651995010865, 0.41409150307530557, 0.5005547552283075, 0.3283216384408885, 0.5179393125380852, 0.38569803603839053 ], "bias": [ -27.04900255898218, 3.845888478806889, -65.4557961563697, -7.635359783943524, 41.22369653702547, 12.746078347956205, -60.53558249484727, -22.826268596356357 ], "mae": [ 32.3943332018075, 18.420963585415524, 69.43076433727212, 28.839347336359257, 41.91415117983254, 20.43276562063671, 70.35014193710106, 31.721320322812986 ], "mse": [ 1653.8795164378814, 532.8179247035307, 6974.603507655323, 1809.5771873356193, 2100.6247812027705, 590.8992311239824, 6931.969940680198, 1717.994305282541 ], "var": [ 3810.9487665557144, 2962.3258260473735, 9558.030936119638, 2644.975007038994, 3109.3010976644687, 3477.816921794299, 4577.700320309255, 2309.5214321619096 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.00010258539062368126, 0.0, 0.0, 3.419513020789376e-05, 3.419513020789376e-05, 3.419513020789376e-05, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 28.982355151300762, "crpss": 0.17736168059025548, "rps": 0.37380920099662657, "rpss": 0.1377952334507878, "mean_bias_mm": -15.710793278338809, "mean_mae_mm": 39.187973440154714, "mean_rmse_mm": 52.81141731957902, "spread_error_ratio": 1.2059760554453764, "zero_fraction": 2.564634765592032e-05, "correlation": 0.6935542444251922, "pit_histogram": [ 0.02224, 0.05309, 0.06575, 0.07497, 0.12351, 0.12364, 0.13252, 0.15599, 0.13782, 0.11047 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.3678948967988911 } }, "full": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 25.763843581160764, 20.998942412678414, 22.882408918010192, 23.575099148920966, 88.5077935306904, 29.76061751494889, 31.626571141260502, 41.17642537433967, 15.743825227062818, 22.78842268796568, 36.1081225581082, 20.410249900422127, 15.937622694882869, 30.419142114532747, 34.05579389483381, 23.463512875805126, 21.03002325743804, 38.99395271198702, 25.03093920956048, 25.211247350231638, 19.317978904103082, 32.09977693652126, 23.123893705466408, 19.204046857340575, 21.437433235978624, 14.71264514736761, 48.89792997653777, 15.331647228974056, 24.244285539921528, 15.775695314567484, 37.31204315474763, 39.9705642496903 ], "crps_clim": [ 21.565188759301577, 23.38563063557986, 19.097928412475547, 27.65831750898805, 115.86467554318806, 32.608713982744845, 35.74981363535668, 35.27522856142174, 17.037873658289875, 19.249766823627166, 29.95460921092147, 21.757280334006133, 22.589855526865747, 32.8860898565903, 21.287962454192346, 23.34276551652251, 20.5096382411715, 27.15997168831795, 25.49780817078038, 22.130467654701782, 19.335150240563912, 30.517713481749208, 23.826246347839884, 21.865464318236576, 19.893432351136823, 17.03329139891581, 64.14883327049633, 18.974050124817815, 25.33605920687928, 16.45512833366636, 38.480365999726736, 31.353009520945946 ], "rps": [ 0.5140986612867937, 0.4104800440961984, 0.5187119394541162, 0.4841321853986151, 0.28491794184690233, 0.4299459754533536, 0.4084193445852539, 0.5900237498860665, 0.37908326828334576, 0.49556617718439133, 0.6826755257956205, 0.3597144337457893, 0.37371330297894934, 0.4034191967478124, 0.6865664063028348, 0.44440502966745593, 0.401663267501233, 0.6912248808131675, 0.4626933624612124, 0.47657117939199767, 0.3771253092062347, 0.5099007278363638, 0.4021422160838707, 0.40009383261449105, 0.4520788769304478, 0.33644308914332227, 0.4401746761504856, 0.3378275234445378, 0.4465046526382074, 0.2980045212869099, 0.4455415037077631, 0.625399605877296 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4235467576215105, 0.47608889223006146, 0.42116084841535095, 0.52922569582888, 0.5521940842175864, 0.48422399901825147, 0.4817361166669598, 0.48212565828300324, 0.39092541948658205, 0.43695066648742936, 0.5455763971634705, 0.37045590341108353, 0.4938985727810239, 0.45690686490267524, 0.44941552111033356, 0.42409929339583347, 0.4060824902077587, 0.5026173106347752, 0.49052948788469664, 0.41131287431461633, 0.38663843087009825, 0.4959596204449516, 0.4216770610806586, 0.46451823268332443, 0.4095379456154036, 0.3675043388775151, 0.5502738168335921, 0.3945497358652498, 0.47350515274771016, 0.3484831583622997, 0.46150350689172287, 0.4645838963389065 ], "bias": [ -18.858861187345006, 29.383291219095188, 31.82636975515648, 39.261964546565025, -112.35468653316363, -21.081421172222353, -19.69587094397565, -48.56931362919114, 3.9417870164477837, 23.913013747408662, 62.02195448442116, 16.7665136145579, 28.03226762663339, -34.51194451616924, 55.133613675933375, -19.01214185592629, 4.280545900977304, 62.14854097712818, 28.418437289318394, 24.816043098908082, -10.783895992632639, -40.74736936882376, 26.444265344591496, 14.16725905246185, -10.763968286536715, 1.1572510261190796, -63.34769158706248, 2.564178535528886, 14.638331657725937, 18.16526607539833, -42.345664928406855, -47.71853183325445 ], "mae": [ 34.49159769288766, 35.68647439745671, 36.76976873990577, 41.639958476039176, 113.27874373822627, 43.47615156001378, 43.47439957723687, 52.24974603562407, 24.12899466381526, 38.22946259682627, 62.098654356255224, 29.110169360755364, 30.74087218240747, 40.259864636002895, 55.532258531923496, 31.55102963504952, 30.59431746238581, 62.30144998512401, 41.9957317522163, 38.228135374303285, 23.74392047882805, 43.34771252146183, 38.976988810806034, 31.32137199354848, 28.28474865529534, 18.352455707618958, 64.89758121567287, 21.5613159590373, 36.904224152614304, 25.106709917241076, 51.376861301802606, 51.98349246687444 ], "mse": [ 2314.7541789901043, 1957.6104906551996, 2174.0273790135716, 2265.4125883484603, 18376.317440880604, 3242.7467938838436, 3456.6973610534715, 4579.224173247032, 943.5960052338188, 2311.6736226079925, 4759.860750689767, 1628.8630630605137, 1341.6565200452735, 2879.0042793436173, 4244.148564272299, 1824.2970212987434, 1430.5352959746222, 5770.006357884325, 2806.590350857779, 2457.243351925497, 957.7285088458523, 2945.7494921874736, 2320.3599152717416, 1593.8633008600582, 1350.96072968402, 538.217094047739, 6063.680124834129, 997.1569619185324, 1963.575715244963, 958.130425307537, 4572.116796055228, 4464.353821352275 ], "var": [ 2260.7783367809643, 3257.3076007407203, 2324.0833688085368, 2316.1734515615094, 3179.334520438763, 1894.6191686695654, 2690.7882838956025, 2607.8489079721962, 2011.723998173911, 3000.3872212143733, 3194.6077195160337, 3075.3968702838893, 2116.3764088392536, 2390.2083131715613, 2669.701199419159, 2259.6991179747606, 3636.0187854502333, 2791.0083415146364, 2510.5254436652654, 2262.3420401126373, 2955.2361999190784, 1927.0329420362696, 5115.170784027595, 1886.6509385780137, 2527.2897549903614, 2532.9740250154878, 4870.215389584889, 2189.616732775323, 2162.2792876247213, 3507.8537886987297, 2795.8525943556124, 1826.4148285484612 ], "zero": [ 0.03916525070608269, 0.02549313134006357, 0.017591595206455004, 0.015615430590280394, 0.013741655523910778, 0.028557236898249135, 0.024103609305410615, 0.031237274123459516, 0.025196592766119155, 0.019157440054091715, 0.01716417567156827, 0.030704593136376482, 0.02265982501122582, 0.0192373851640849, 0.014337960706841015, 0.0317593443234697, 0.03413991017783774, 0.020296625985370034, 0.02991768270034044, 0.028532661051624535, 0.021626609710094453, 0.02070463774238159, 0.01025273426584108, 0.028212207490062067, 0.035021464367268544, 0.023367231117692615, 0.03158001152633334, 0.043932775962926676, 0.029007709512341665, 0.01875444262411989, 0.01909717929701174, 0.0373254505541369 ] }, "crps": 28.27851551112677, "crpss": 0.01835030867388454, "rps": 0.4552894502437825, "rpss": -0.00701244161355441, "mean_bias_mm": -0.0847020996979273, "mean_mae_mm": 41.302973872976764, "mean_rmse_mm": 55.759012297025826, "spread_error_ratio": 0.933756110726679, "zero_fraction": 0.025234119831658505, "correlation": 0.12349003896889106, "pit_histogram": [ 0.12703, 0.10798, 0.08448, 0.08358, 0.09166, 0.08662, 0.09353, 0.10383, 0.10292, 0.11837 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.12024736291400952 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 17.425603198065556, 26.1518758414092, 17.11962187954476, 20.01051766044851, 107.64693520417278, 22.411315615896562, 18.28973285351874, 58.654449691597314, 19.159164312559504, 17.005127293210347, 35.90818706683104, 24.30177841420326, 19.51341226230854, 46.164872311169006, 33.36794379969023, 34.02742023752231, 18.58632607698984, 35.37300472173333, 23.001445027409396, 22.22776639679818, 17.906412175959545, 34.86485018158765, 26.509498156397015, 26.101952154444202, 26.438579658398755, 14.834662380777326, 53.02562171181503, 21.542933744569048, 25.45100155353456, 15.563333560430037, 50.810925045416234, 22.543461145864715 ], "crps_clim": [ 20.62823078391462, 22.736075489400832, 17.20303065300768, 33.38592024446952, 148.69890061775828, 32.54163468771625, 20.813924730768786, 45.34936829224909, 21.110172436165435, 18.987977073987647, 35.64746457072699, 24.18698188499711, 30.543634191772295, 49.7010744586202, 22.788748659461, 33.02631501609522, 18.025620044910095, 33.698138045350596, 26.182976675526973, 24.697762649323387, 18.323363286191857, 30.274060611645748, 36.95358378488871, 31.968592033538773, 23.529333965483502, 18.554147550975507, 95.7655520497254, 24.80422585413712, 28.59879576238074, 16.421943505646766, 59.22616150944826, 19.837161306589184 ], "rps": [ 0.36437559233458755, 0.42064046496570756, 0.34522344582283754, 0.2911306818899321, 0.18888119642506437, 0.2875185954953085, 0.37758128075628056, 0.7175862728712359, 0.38030587180440173, 0.34421306493719783, 0.537507980642388, 0.3974405060379021, 0.31538072501644787, 0.45318774346799984, 0.6363008023281109, 0.5104707539082719, 0.32020274304139484, 0.5032307070898571, 0.37714989771263435, 0.33079851257830634, 0.33963686092259465, 0.5658247972259852, 0.21790462304178093, 0.4127343248118405, 0.47668899391542874, 0.3164497815013186, 0.1869401804341297, 0.3706297699662338, 0.4476544382760969, 0.31692145872811917, 0.41483904386025133, 0.43353471492834567 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4353624306832978, 0.4191800777990544, 0.33092642730556393, 0.5345989952281157, 0.5549256946518838, 0.4853155529512196, 0.4290652521208975, 0.49985640326148617, 0.40930380959521595, 0.37730746282751154, 0.5561589821998123, 0.3968450353921786, 0.5352098508957999, 0.5197317160936026, 0.4622154279575823, 0.47965872542692495, 0.3452359656196985, 0.510985845909633, 0.4364472915440719, 0.37533126250969556, 0.33575420241270676, 0.47704841054116015, 0.48221255024125415, 0.5432080506356914, 0.4191937836801347, 0.36236938480584985, 0.5586414801407072, 0.4345261685934756, 0.5204520422939962, 0.3377365051099261, 0.5222952003256466, 0.37908107264058183 ], "bias": [ 4.070501740878596, 31.793119308882318, 13.907345453377244, 36.55642208832851, -134.0842353076969, 17.635347414622192, 18.149573190098835, -70.65963754460742, -6.134256941166562, -8.140113219718677, 64.90020256911254, 27.18250351422174, 42.40664018191308, -57.56496753022697, 58.54991677448963, -42.70861633803158, 24.798881616490984, 55.552709009773196, 3.9971381314267065, 1.0059025734145013, -2.03098641180131, -43.209716154393334, 17.16385597170829, 43.673919156929166, -23.769394111215178, 7.556393031646201, -65.94192686705875, -3.7485179562010043, 46.7719043492958, 17.3891133169682, -59.179730389750446, -19.563222467684263 ], "mae": [ 27.461429184010935, 40.22316910616479, 25.213267454074064, 37.846584205473654, 135.32154080011367, 37.4001790964298, 28.860369912152393, 74.58902447849432, 27.551414547211706, 20.77377675003827, 64.90020256911254, 36.35815374768004, 42.435267617917674, 60.65864442434533, 59.19604898289945, 43.89610079002556, 32.60760728994448, 55.94480346878552, 34.90896195847981, 31.735358657099646, 22.015616686881167, 47.40788597455818, 39.970470831186816, 45.63656409402879, 30.260010729790228, 19.3714518142273, 69.87738634945896, 29.88992022644598, 47.08218865627965, 23.29148174223017, 68.97820393801054, 30.222441881140448 ], "mse": [ 1174.7758834524984, 2518.6695922610447, 1024.9063868377855, 1829.9732513893869, 24665.865763356454, 2243.719445700585, 1264.8508034518288, 7720.977379637939, 1296.1284698729337, 767.6329442688334, 4651.523874492961, 2087.814429722771, 2133.254088194568, 5188.401143605394, 4226.505443547207, 3144.924320149254, 1465.3112679018595, 4561.277943238133, 1929.2281996847391, 1659.0870174004212, 813.9505873603482, 3282.972119636814, 2676.258148214356, 2585.448147200156, 1466.4072931017397, 570.8040627263979, 6997.363390236712, 1801.0445752900469, 2585.217308141166, 760.0663029935165, 6634.63377537375, 1543.8461722886098 ], "var": [ 2307.382115295012, 5367.829710534276, 2895.4931792573248, 2850.4385607418117, 3575.2894975379677, 1927.1773452896796, 2809.328020917324, 2758.571178930228, 2115.3047754911986, 2362.3170328369856, 3766.711626273931, 4844.566593662193, 3356.2777545285853, 3107.2379680516224, 3945.7886923190185, 3531.808344840733, 5553.676935934257, 2478.615702646891, 2753.9578377118405, 3196.358028632218, 3648.486745075928, 2051.539134626157, 8582.036388884295, 2486.777149160434, 3808.609222289159, 3010.1167699578823, 8311.926955656481, 2705.689718976843, 3158.7038998078074, 3605.7135750383213, 4194.509165456683, 2330.500982410076 ], "zero": [ 0.00020927419687230978, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.975806562410326e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.975806562410326e-05, 0.0, 6.975806562410326e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.975806562410326e-05, 6.975806562410326e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 6.975806562410326e-05, 0.0, 6.839026041578751e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 3.419513020789376e-05, 3.419513020789376e-05, 3.419513020789376e-05, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 29.748116604196017, "crpss": 0.12199761546066068, "rps": 0.3937151820855622, "rpss": 0.12908004031828424, "mean_bias_mm": -0.11481037018670914, "mean_mae_mm": 43.49642274889662, "mean_rmse_mm": 57.898844853203414, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0281565045009002, "zero_fraction": 2.4962445051762444e-05, "correlation": 0.3945290506334649, "pit_histogram": [ 0.10532, 0.09701, 0.08874, 0.09778, 0.113, 0.09844, 0.0993, 0.10114, 0.09973, 0.09955 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.03891059714099593 } }, "distribution_full": { "ethiopia": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9994151616819085, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.002346954870174949 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9802791766811804, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.06534373689860808 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9748407778808489, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.9228381209532639 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0005291165366144, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.1330859195689661 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.029595832938208, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.0787118215567346 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": 0.021139305607758493 } }, "ondj_domain": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9990948961035758, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.0016173919524486823 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9883671645422564, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.046553958589293634 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0216707083578593, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.09844406707779034 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9978662158654985, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.0638172417741347 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0283609664889986, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.07417703009238615 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": 2.4962445051762437e-05 } } } }, "dqm": { "training": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 27.009324742783562, 19.266762311396754, 19.570974259754625, 21.141513614149584, 99.43821697159181, 33.890574191301305, 35.338911082703646, 43.97122530269366, 16.095196673114394, 21.275279913985855, 29.951284861967295, 20.48121304920393, 15.21253858985217, 36.16252788185683, 28.567886344308217, 24.392557502070943, 22.316987927049407, 32.97420216533632, 22.248324303350355, 21.921613835751106, 21.950369392846092, 36.50873993341706, 20.79648544404641, 19.673916042217524 ], "crps_clim": [ 22.51064113159216, 21.34178182693399, 17.109998394156545, 24.703975408517493, 122.2696629923497, 34.35098937579959, 37.99006225524478, 38.26557578034132, 17.080571907583543, 17.74984365790482, 26.57914721869575, 20.704500238866018, 20.302011916608773, 36.321622918341355, 19.07649303993666, 24.496312766356763, 20.70257424683409, 24.33223915547966, 23.533815992682083, 20.40174081976945, 20.534635777607914, 33.59238533966214, 24.32853834433991, 20.828282238756913 ], "rps": [ 0.5440276737569494, 0.4137227584756069, 0.4713781798862584, 0.46227547444220785, 0.3238017195182272, 0.5051835119836408, 0.44277024094761447, 0.6104441412819565, 0.37134777268350155, 0.4891127179526769, 0.6058259109933187, 0.3693535134724698, 0.3400302882944574, 0.4654478384666243, 0.5882401228975133, 0.45099815179104696, 0.4439290978448693, 0.6341658579887045, 0.4135448059555483, 0.42739017985415245, 0.42408478213630785, 0.5455349290537983, 0.3413539493148097, 0.40412277700576416 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.43940389525455414, 0.46658159808332234, 0.4078016609722334, 0.5058326556309144, 0.5395139575622566, 0.49558246733465433, 0.4802715225811077, 0.49404333105867937, 0.39146218082661743, 0.427716413607736, 0.5144532326749148, 0.3688788606345833, 0.45641496128233255, 0.4825359164875749, 0.4144568430509284, 0.43646088297845814, 0.42094222250140517, 0.4840252597737128, 0.47195865794782255, 0.4060822454153488, 0.4076181814082607, 0.4985033826792915, 0.4183880428687596, 0.4537770988799093 ], "bias": [ -19.348388709138945, 22.039257730929926, 26.40310460301969, 36.65145618719252, -123.37729875949572, -23.04665552965562, -24.285406691405427, -51.81088738156241, -1.0962195289875114, 17.56907250303673, 55.47290523468024, 13.660745613181545, 25.675306002852537, -41.80421513351033, 47.19405822614066, -22.68689097478338, -2.657965296497324, 55.62271367037192, 22.963890711132084, 18.40524668077287, -15.562523282117168, -45.98532643637301, 11.441109275363205, 13.23267814427367 ], "mae": [ 35.163099924411526, 32.26822361620082, 32.266383344490464, 39.88943060062888, 123.96947936056704, 48.20243779687995, 47.31425300436381, 54.89409377000549, 23.953207249500817, 36.15216341349314, 55.58455852803203, 27.038239714753324, 29.559115220788847, 45.856544665732606, 47.925678948959906, 31.867764273203655, 28.30546628672127, 55.93500827718898, 39.07710328996451, 33.36911102656621, 25.000399678242026, 47.77403864041929, 31.457041440010773, 32.07283484198136 ], "mse": [ 2341.500621119177, 1646.2830256503873, 1671.5725847649921, 2076.752094301144, 21523.248753568794, 3835.4384363574454, 4087.8429603529776, 4851.146030293616, 942.1953911266647, 2076.6017199324065, 3842.309384428898, 1395.2858513794545, 1256.0258593610226, 3604.9401580960116, 3293.7327028551867, 1938.7056632439183, 1290.1255826631996, 4570.537272760006, 2422.3475422315514, 1944.4204635313406, 1080.7146268234628, 3509.5106393567776, 1646.769495384855, 1649.77148525655 ], "var": [ 2511.316251450362, 3289.4146553829187, 2703.0671114984625, 2648.966029744884, 3014.1307309007857, 2232.9312594631992, 2953.315258153376, 2994.1367221544956, 2381.6643647043334, 3458.331488265895, 3448.2887316868673, 3481.8385688791072, 2542.1490405569702, 2702.553610232567, 2926.5399561301156, 2435.579052970406, 4196.349547495615, 3078.1284827202794, 2823.3863885532182, 2513.73904449121, 3343.1158362597325, 2317.1285761797485, 5568.95099889337, 2281.5075360719866 ], "zero": [ 0.003715880414543096, 0.0013897617307540005, 0.0007209029268591773, 0.0018446723521492636, 0.0027260816822042696, 0.0026508306277520438, 0.003235417902911374, 0.0029673549838695307, 0.00299443559658683, 0.003313640250694734, 0.001469969501376649, 0.002993561020619529, 0.0020893043705281777, 0.0020060699084923587, 0.0012302096936816006, 0.0014427262823701768, 0.0039032517379597453, 0.002887216189167972, 0.0031280866495666543, 0.002484844100120234, 0.0025676483992782342, 0.0016584905769097438, 0.001097597233336624, 0.0017127688706396877 ] }, "crps": 28.75652609736453, "crpss": -0.0015225835453351877, "rps": 0.46200359983325107, "rpss": -0.018872230351229646, "mean_bias_mm": -0.22209304752413672, "mean_mae_mm": 41.87065320471279, "mean_rmse_mm": 57.19039048973461, "spread_error_ratio": 0.9566965632091574, "zero_fraction": 0.002342946791765488, "correlation": 0.08495222701335783, "pit_histogram": [ 0.13041, 0.09313, 0.09121, 0.09294, 0.09666, 0.08872, 0.09124, 0.09885, 0.09748, 0.11936 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.09954765396303492 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 19.11119892388176, 25.16767067867261, 17.427936035307997, 20.48569792107438, 123.5293956972144, 25.535883854481483, 19.304362525829564, 58.27268880627636, 19.967522829871747, 19.150634747069486, 32.5582065406797, 23.63008100935974, 19.613461297866756, 53.37233199295938, 30.624741462438703, 35.98831407446535, 18.988531784160944, 34.20451088165747, 24.1754081367225, 22.551698278366935, 19.093699936254197, 36.09188973949774, 26.781791598921995, 25.89286907768138 ], "crps_clim": [ 20.16546441774922, 22.76670826790671, 16.94469548167337, 31.09433614253317, 155.68767899429207, 31.182604674802132, 20.063728628019742, 47.67425501377674, 21.053644879747303, 19.513270179453034, 33.170969511215155, 22.839448378093994, 28.243116177805117, 53.561271942272995, 21.37134058167887, 35.54201609868039, 17.47907876438195, 31.583296905530318, 26.57160898637116, 24.874887655242915, 18.60790218298319, 31.38851277619512, 38.48344091464168, 29.783372053088755 ], "rps": [ 0.3915370573325292, 0.43348161703070714, 0.35118861736887613, 0.31204930389739594, 0.2275274860358569, 0.3629576145067053, 0.39586254008596583, 0.684072180273271, 0.4039718637009834, 0.3971568959433363, 0.5098832158058226, 0.3884545232696724, 0.32603245961922905, 0.5077379911791555, 0.6069195234538658, 0.5055076986762252, 0.3426481200603271, 0.520304384849937, 0.3584956662125302, 0.3196871852013693, 0.3504202132708202, 0.5614980830705928, 0.25140546222513754, 0.4229533620060678 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4283784846339526, 0.42670630481309463, 0.3446648823501038, 0.5130077295664848, 0.5410158900803291, 0.48132609963069506, 0.42143417253271964, 0.499616375801894, 0.4182216041304011, 0.40244267787358307, 0.5388940330394029, 0.3853584884109886, 0.5182825813030848, 0.5208909812511145, 0.44508072206563115, 0.4785608793092128, 0.35798102791050807, 0.4969649369586475, 0.42935647251841336, 0.3854220274094116, 0.34929100974978367, 0.4752706362743161, 0.48976956652503323, 0.5267262488889791 ], "bias": [ 4.274840079756143, 18.985014390140233, 11.820747598997393, 38.03370899860194, -149.88997004374454, 20.418590555933783, 19.14188233880624, -70.28819537670326, -7.993668408025992, -14.203944206291201, 60.568829247058176, 23.15625411024754, 42.73625785012372, -65.56291209992347, 52.53957292331943, -45.156303191938306, 14.755925562642695, 55.01910802936001, -0.44519415633169585, -4.734434382011325, -5.111648648712638, -45.252957033292475, -4.034981555589982, 43.634806310591536 ], "mae": [ 28.618415509970625, 35.87550439840443, 24.510965276345203, 39.52465329075112, 150.9110531575847, 42.41183550709171, 29.42865835525089, 74.33862438742145, 28.04848549199983, 23.471099787656627, 60.585981825406826, 32.432563195004214, 42.885056556074616, 67.75536574605125, 53.72423837886437, 46.21373389269074, 26.642837921559448, 55.43487638310345, 35.68013095573264, 29.174081661288206, 21.950341016834308, 48.48065637153685, 31.911113252824826, 46.71434873603726 ], "mse": [ 1246.1058643706056, 2083.7605838376016, 963.7668754318579, 1986.4325724102007, 29829.424557345337, 2724.8594746032577, 1274.8084595748646, 7651.209367943657, 1325.6721756432137, 968.3400151804838, 4095.0805291737306, 1700.813146199859, 2178.658383236036, 6345.542479065237, 3707.1890654865715, 3514.7212726353655, 1045.241096337774, 4251.275237789956, 2033.6072725336655, 1508.9871729546358, 836.2410702392369, 3421.6507945082844, 1938.29549507339, 2681.2433448127904 ], "var": [ 2700.725426012907, 5272.023099404593, 3390.4611269250267, 3363.1643108322423, 3172.208702507095, 2408.1344979404553, 3122.426758306289, 3030.0777591215483, 2351.1312856927398, 2633.420768499078, 3881.470786842892, 5458.615846004411, 3884.8933814308325, 3292.108159814311, 4123.396004227889, 3643.2665225861256, 6183.32404641535, 2754.0682578324995, 3011.562327623093, 3420.302059208934, 3889.0633707516854, 2352.1234711703373, 8809.490083329803, 2969.823779744693 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 31.31335532627969, "crpss": 0.06018423487549984, "rps": 0.41382304437818246, "rpss": 0.08670711871457226, "mean_bias_mm": -0.31619462945774995, "mean_mae_mm": 44.86352587731189, "mean_rmse_mm": 61.003048525732034, "spread_error_ratio": 0.9989041242850057, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.28121182334621053, "pit_histogram": [ 0.10097, 0.09356, 0.09824, 0.10431, 0.11728, 0.09888, 0.08878, 0.08492, 0.09099, 0.12208 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.08927596656225442 } }, "operational": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 22.43947397665793, 16.054434107655084, 54.53515270577471, 16.156319478609483, 24.49071144184093, 16.07758180158227, 40.70564737024077, 40.56306953072534 ], "crps_clim": [ 20.32105586449988, 16.40570046524331, 65.52791755840862, 17.64632053938275, 24.293868622000836, 16.66802739812226, 40.184015667195084, 32.98246918464377 ], "rps": [ 0.4586377410193563, 0.3747712063154325, 0.4762470502641329, 0.3492876058191613, 0.46669810351561375, 0.30364503491739814, 0.4669604478702225, 0.6306831058657068 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4122606865060767, 0.37346476193268074, 0.5449498617316163, 0.36687869557844566, 0.47023810687668466, 0.3514902720415714, 0.4617152805402287, 0.46890906592470627 ], "bias": [ -14.33344744340225, -1.8010202273845088, -69.95233463973463, 1.1562626125073416, 10.03024071715903, 9.320614871129225, -47.514672233364394, -47.061189671995066 ], "mae": [ 29.070241657585807, 19.00382323640275, 71.44650598300186, 21.727969826966696, 35.97481846978378, 22.63067325265371, 54.51147425814131, 52.472235473095736 ], "mse": [ 1482.8633668959428, 573.7835579301193, 7261.859872598642, 1035.6047954830376, 1851.025789873221, 826.8133866251716, 5097.249375528162, 4527.834577535385 ], "var": [ 2872.1162808570134, 2625.1531648174, 4959.421353183933, 2445.575931519429, 2444.5705991214077, 3668.643822835569, 3044.5169525938018, 2223.2484720818184 ], "zero": [ 0.0021747209880586538, 0.0031204146354355746, 0.0041158241010733326, 0.00492818005651832, 0.0027940353144223174, 0.002884013033509879, 0.00163809145524247, 0.004101301817322789 ] }, "crps": 28.877798801635812, "crpss": 0.01284874978861883, "rps": 0.44086628694837804, "rpss": -0.022326274435175986, "mean_bias_mm": -20.019443251885654, "mean_mae_mm": 38.35471776970395, "mean_rmse_mm": 53.217753995341724, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0352657343298477, "zero_fraction": 0.003219572675197917, "correlation": 0.2685841563327858, "pit_histogram": [ 0.01669, 0.0318, 0.04637, 0.08087, 0.11136, 0.12786, 0.12778, 0.12985, 0.14736, 0.18006 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.4485401685322521 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 27.29083097501829, 15.304776412244047, 64.55929613433412, 22.221760506692682, 23.743409905208154, 16.02059017882069, 55.65775555603997, 23.14075426779635 ], "crps_clim": [ 24.012970318608165, 17.14717700571395, 95.49608165309667, 24.212333377463093, 25.06890034808142, 15.600720521826346, 60.26104362729821, 20.04862260959093 ], "rps": [ 0.4690661879639847, 0.31898578546241146, 0.2551490094733345, 0.36256247143146353, 0.4582794357296086, 0.32561329292325286, 0.44544935002621866, 0.44977080683829174 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.41878823842713037, 0.35324432725808413, 0.5497651995010865, 0.41409150307530557, 0.5005547552283075, 0.3283216384408885, 0.5179393125380852, 0.38569803603839053 ], "bias": [ -24.457771250846143, 6.391120568645501, -80.60666903397099, -3.286232042546688, 44.22063266408502, 13.977672482394247, -66.00078768611772, -17.198976390950378 ], "mae": [ 30.659736430228147, 19.99839715967304, 84.32345187095585, 31.266043937041896, 44.87134091932311, 21.70318457901538, 73.81256790746738, 30.811691296786012 ], "mse": [ 1552.257611607172, 582.6693871102169, 9778.375924946844, 1899.2923860443043, 2368.9667646067587, 640.9358159048752, 7570.40722102273, 1612.7779180669422 ], "var": [ 4156.1791529798875, 2987.8431256455165, 8034.324054434957, 3016.9762193194424, 3446.358476247708, 3858.3504188306047, 4505.505417368458, 2843.362469751781 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 30.992396742019288, "crpss": 0.12030844155912157, "rps": 0.38560954248107077, "rpss": 0.11057730877779925, "mean_bias_mm": -15.870126336163395, "mean_mae_mm": 42.18080176256135, "mean_rmse_mm": 57.01500134757282, "spread_error_ratio": 1.1238963963897195, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.6938691272003142, "pit_histogram": [ 0.02424, 0.04554, 0.06998, 0.1093, 0.13557, 0.1094, 0.11079, 0.12528, 0.13623, 0.13368 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.3204783974738466 } }, "full": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 25.017512657943286, 20.976382715708592, 22.375707289977424, 24.052649697003535, 92.00402079559959, 31.089517089467957, 32.71514042969448, 40.189525784514935, 15.781178484249658, 22.652394447966245, 34.3778001894233, 20.469349013350687, 16.91393660261804, 31.967120269251787, 32.824635612937946, 23.155358743335462, 21.453873270875764, 37.40354243035473, 24.749463829521773, 24.826285479072105, 19.943829548724537, 32.212605589888035, 22.1969121993126, 19.735843206283064, 21.49896317835516, 15.387675338680129, 52.42364633272243, 16.220448009891676, 25.223515634345027, 16.078877055406217, 38.66363779792484, 38.59426178560208 ], "crps_clim": [ 21.565188759301577, 23.38563063557986, 19.097928412475547, 27.65831750898805, 115.86467554318806, 32.608713982744845, 35.74981363535668, 35.27522856142174, 17.037873658289875, 19.249766823627166, 29.95460921092147, 21.757280334006133, 22.589855526865747, 32.8860898565903, 21.287962454192346, 23.34276551652251, 20.5096382411715, 27.15997168831795, 25.49780817078038, 22.130467654701782, 19.335150240563912, 30.517713481749208, 23.826246347839884, 21.865464318236576, 19.893432351136823, 17.03329139891581, 64.14883327049633, 18.974050124817815, 25.33605920687928, 16.45512833366636, 38.480365999726736, 31.353009520945946 ], "rps": [ 0.5092946849317729, 0.41876090172358676, 0.5135260632324372, 0.4840727646832456, 0.30879298567703806, 0.4626279749753183, 0.4289945431318281, 0.5799410327496016, 0.37625045390219647, 0.49971778006654893, 0.6547286112112468, 0.3618322380484031, 0.37262753166752133, 0.4236675169751965, 0.6752838017067597, 0.4387224420798254, 0.42359204915850407, 0.6710319917390367, 0.4471985372769951, 0.4634246296702446, 0.3944920539606202, 0.5164613740905221, 0.40252015395579926, 0.4038784041786913, 0.44739738694823417, 0.3456548347498977, 0.46352080796452133, 0.34362110823355585, 0.4623463610746084, 0.312757931292986, 0.45562076993054446, 0.6137130435195843 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4235467576215105, 0.47608889223006146, 0.42116084841535095, 0.52922569582888, 0.5521940842175864, 0.48422399901825147, 0.4817361166669598, 0.48212565828300324, 0.39092541948658205, 0.43695066648742936, 0.5455763971634705, 0.37045590341108353, 0.4938985727810239, 0.45690686490267524, 0.44941552111033356, 0.42409929339583347, 0.4060824902077587, 0.5026173106347752, 0.49052948788469664, 0.41131287431461633, 0.38663843087009825, 0.4959596204449516, 0.4216770610806586, 0.46451823268332443, 0.4095379456154036, 0.3675043388775151, 0.5502738168335921, 0.3945497358652498, 0.47350515274771016, 0.3484831583622997, 0.46150350689172287, 0.4645838963389065 ], "bias": [ -15.449097498267484, 26.70940367327562, 31.723391023263613, 41.18326838298704, -115.47814624325427, -18.399991413195398, -18.5770687087669, -46.47673268775052, 4.1540514735761995, 22.721927151275633, 60.611112562178626, 17.569993159151156, 30.17131788110043, -35.86303422757828, 53.47093580100931, -17.305127448151644, 2.0263290184663947, 61.31099109588691, 28.301713990073914, 24.124554369070193, -10.208216020383874, -40.272863894467974, 18.319064325944034, 16.926751821203485, -9.89716650011138, 2.6134278290721418, -67.29605850463858, 5.327943813638885, 15.404842249947434, 15.797144133431047, -43.70481565421255, -44.23887662108857 ], "mae": [ 33.513152675110966, 34.58866597682237, 36.02457197520844, 43.63734644651689, 116.4766690153015, 45.262829125303966, 45.520774775842305, 50.515769286458614, 23.8268077059895, 38.17544666893994, 60.69579101045026, 28.493544490921654, 32.63643744742648, 41.23215413596902, 53.95230303131876, 30.297321075569034, 28.80727939371146, 61.43708382751404, 42.2275262485776, 37.65213758875018, 23.879007492786663, 43.04383554753479, 35.016278917983875, 32.37477752200403, 27.81129656076636, 19.05709764600144, 69.12012099064266, 23.30824245079476, 37.70026885800255, 24.685992747599272, 52.15843876193102, 50.32731457263197 ], "mse": [ 2122.0818818903913, 1836.470861081504, 2083.6330474976485, 2468.9451767272963, 19663.574165226204, 3392.203819874033, 3656.3019875696414, 4279.9707895548545, 916.2728752094118, 2287.537810579112, 4529.5042649205925, 1578.8489560892053, 1512.234096558157, 3027.4553714447798, 4058.292170265543, 1734.5838977069018, 1281.1482276447587, 5389.484713933322, 2793.4953505891494, 2385.0231364811216, 955.6078123021075, 2926.573654084141, 1934.9150583293379, 1658.3349868723503, 1333.244411119038, 572.2933369435362, 6901.8100911290085, 1078.3892919110415, 2041.7770570005414, 897.7188380547818, 4715.427307391186, 4198.894608443878 ], "var": [ 2478.827678331727, 3218.1514129609263, 2618.387218208714, 2616.3741835370947, 3237.3677193789995, 2220.987650627843, 2944.511180789356, 2997.6947454869446, 2308.775215835571, 3290.5689678624294, 3389.1659004404282, 3370.9162579310073, 2468.161002010348, 2645.9150332186964, 2899.621265374847, 2512.4561612820753, 4018.5485212305093, 3028.3112329875944, 2781.3295418215503, 2522.829407768575, 3316.145515627505, 2271.2647351879205, 5267.2320249671175, 2213.9284057384907, 2850.4774966194377, 2648.4366524783063, 4735.131023175852, 2455.735594964324, 2426.6913646564126, 3676.675758127296, 2969.2999976647575, 2164.9301652605145 ], "zero": [ 0.0028087632465947214, 0.0008824883266587344, 0.0002660899734907246, 0.0013370014259250626, 0.0025926004574088166, 0.0021693205141100945, 0.002862328992329176, 0.0018719791085676043, 0.0018435575255381954, 0.0026462867311842627, 0.0011226999413813052, 0.002138798492752757, 0.0012862243927618338, 0.001231066141176954, 0.0004282889210316229, 0.0009617909679698922, 0.0024593994581859173, 0.0021399246349029398, 0.0020595580022173296, 0.0018975306070907944, 0.0016588446706194133, 0.0009891065134633335, 0.0005624068934732389, 0.0011236977412764058, 0.0013484058441245324, 0.0019537019540897304, 0.0030402473792428128, 0.004286315566554914, 0.0019281930869306163, 0.002398965292653618, 0.0010881350018402105, 0.0032759331289776176 ] }, "crps": 28.536737828437595, "crpss": 0.009386476821326761, "rps": 0.45862727389083974, "rpss": -0.01439506367672494, "mean_bias_mm": -0.14684473960360656, "mean_mae_mm": 41.35800887407445, "mean_rmse_mm": 55.960937563185695, "spread_error_ratio": 0.9714152020253051, "zero_fraction": 0.001833114091703912, "correlation": 0.12190369461562788, "pit_histogram": [ 0.13069, 0.09183, 0.08701, 0.0905, 0.09697, 0.09323, 0.09482, 0.10001, 0.09868, 0.11626 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.0939185603439722 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 18.372886304482883, 25.422058000153715, 17.46285798728167, 21.817903147995303, 118.00086470287293, 25.666604380330917, 19.89316451937197, 55.49683970165762, 19.42016550176935, 17.81425950665971, 35.01390306369183, 23.842174580965633, 21.28870811035981, 48.994869771019424, 32.78418749637581, 33.36545686167139, 18.901086872652833, 36.7640538303541, 24.267674748680495, 22.74565470980889, 18.191773603908267, 34.00337805525624, 26.20007134327656, 27.529163350012873, 26.486314752708072, 15.443679597120004, 63.694885666154526, 22.31028302138465, 26.719714484158395, 16.293436355930325, 54.600609605553814, 22.08867742156271 ], "crps_clim": [ 20.62823078391462, 22.736075489400832, 17.20303065300768, 33.38592024446952, 148.69890061775828, 32.54163468771625, 20.813924730768786, 45.34936829224909, 21.110172436165435, 18.987977073987647, 35.64746457072699, 24.18698188499711, 30.543634191772295, 49.7010744586202, 22.788748659461, 33.02631501609522, 18.025620044910095, 33.698138045350596, 26.182976675526973, 24.697762649323387, 18.323363286191857, 30.274060611645748, 36.95358378488871, 31.968592033538773, 23.529333965483502, 18.554147550975507, 95.7655520497254, 24.80422585413712, 28.59879576238074, 16.421943505646766, 59.22616150944826, 19.837161306589184 ], "rps": [ 0.38418334545715016, 0.43349759744567073, 0.3575516640916037, 0.31757189330050617, 0.22415248619598266, 0.34817540588040824, 0.4004649843610714, 0.6818341208256593, 0.38773584022642404, 0.36630171026960767, 0.5185204199463974, 0.3921602859185956, 0.32972111136921833, 0.476646401461096, 0.637739791327875, 0.5065570836602805, 0.3395812732578433, 0.5309727468438126, 0.38992065574900303, 0.32883657081759066, 0.34249923536682236, 0.5614930862959163, 0.25611214028919776, 0.43127590273282684, 0.47046389310771436, 0.3163448022838393, 0.24070978025871276, 0.38079785106731506, 0.4638339460442587, 0.3303038818896898, 0.43790409367609767, 0.43559302495808977 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4353624306832978, 0.4191800777990544, 0.33092642730556393, 0.5345989952281157, 0.5549256946518838, 0.4853155529512196, 0.4290652521208975, 0.49985640326148617, 0.40930380959521595, 0.37730746282751154, 0.5561589821998123, 0.3968450353921786, 0.5352098508957999, 0.5197317160936026, 0.4622154279575823, 0.47965872542692495, 0.3452359656196985, 0.510985845909633, 0.4364472915440719, 0.37533126250969556, 0.33575420241270676, 0.47704841054116015, 0.48221255024125415, 0.5432080506356914, 0.4191937836801347, 0.36236938480584985, 0.5586414801407072, 0.4345261685934756, 0.5204520422939962, 0.3377365051099261, 0.5222952003256466, 0.37908107264058183 ], "bias": [ 7.977838108784531, 23.077966393082857, 15.378639930742994, 40.881299315359016, -143.80586594978217, 23.175708883235252, 22.902072017870758, -66.16120652197847, -4.14303662611326, -9.922102860573485, 63.80953549214927, 26.56126546019337, 45.8970996253937, -60.761085027618876, 57.1989412181161, -40.45548335743929, 18.77151413590161, 58.787862522306234, 4.302303766058807, -0.3190964788885885, -0.8972687765523393, -40.945380161136164, 1.4332155571290768, 46.43404674709837, -21.37909832364882, 9.966983690062927, -78.62628354490205, 0.3175938054489212, 49.28767805521321, 18.566587222711426, -64.05282671445845, -14.270437694030688 ], "mae": [ 29.15360707347634, 36.10575720598511, 24.857091378908525, 42.07443019660021, 145.14493828717391, 42.85106451254347, 32.36390992726041, 70.73644170352965, 27.53800975481631, 21.554007858679444, 63.819254646711386, 35.00533098972947, 46.02017962966873, 62.90171029487857, 57.970326650240196, 42.094388559640485, 29.161495654705842, 59.08830987950122, 36.18430148307923, 30.91308595518627, 22.45058055637814, 45.583973871258934, 33.6596905183182, 48.70010066114599, 28.70764403383171, 20.898707506357127, 83.13445253198331, 32.465117577255214, 49.593321663490855, 24.408586657115602, 72.3822162393073, 29.55785045211795 ], "mse": [ 1253.3949946165721, 2061.1226592873586, 997.3150193306552, 2228.8461907096057, 28299.537793161857, 2686.3925967922755, 1490.560612958339, 7046.992301718316, 1270.5788088021002, 815.3388907996865, 4503.241999130378, 1973.5183125763892, 2503.4248527191116, 5553.538089644563, 4228.87628816822, 3019.8474816776975, 1183.3682736689366, 4757.766091497607, 2036.8417667415588, 1604.5375240821015, 815.9966143701376, 3078.4626603600195, 2095.4462508395172, 2885.526750633867, 1380.4496747581497, 631.3892250290622, 9518.711606770745, 1904.9403813233005, 2833.505720398375, 801.1453816130951, 7268.552219217245, 1467.4912966418556 ], "var": [ 2733.48914159044, 5150.534681980921, 3310.1402150267118, 3392.2458767041294, 3393.5047705036172, 2416.867365258255, 3165.7661480422994, 3145.8638374570564, 2389.078371570634, 2580.588399690521, 3871.5010809926075, 5259.3382356047, 3852.0523126150883, 3317.595728233815, 4199.94049602047, 3865.6204810348045, 5966.224572933464, 2791.756764554148, 3093.381782972039, 3564.6021250597205, 3965.369066925481, 2393.6930228805973, 8257.16808033207, 2902.332365579318, 4215.494279562287, 3063.825183220186, 7682.385386922099, 3105.9070747059436, 3467.8311075781216, 3970.980417958298, 4317.400734658902, 2863.125403484807 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 30.96554253297446, "crpss": 0.08606583252833477, "rps": 0.40685803207425864, "rpss": 0.10000732251851496, "mean_bias_mm": -0.34409437782075525, "mean_mae_mm": 44.59624637221485, "mean_rmse_mm": 59.73814169200202, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0321842106268522, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.38188933073830594, "pit_histogram": [ 0.10248, 0.09358, 0.09416, 0.10158, 0.11141, 0.09816, 0.09414, 0.09646, 0.10235, 0.1057 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.047012645008722626 } }, "distribution_full": { "ethiopia": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9997286404218039, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.008823260954707765 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9926017276552044, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.037890139235568894 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9577613943048211, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.07273229780455259 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0017801812600484, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.03836887555975019 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.034202408451989, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.05920035343098792 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": -0.0022617001321960702 } }, "ondj_domain": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9989234251167669, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.009374067928810842 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9871638189937063, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.04301164485034642 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9780793289562326, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.060133613417493584 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 0.999096672357064, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.03365995751159105 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0208448564202843, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.05505629362272142 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": 0.0 } } } }, "qdm": { "training": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 26.652602969460368, 19.14032352341587, 19.358383731654317, 20.760688618496467, 100.37543509966434, 33.86779343623284, 35.37106055377631, 43.7140164764774, 16.281373669353737, 21.044151612941583, 29.74509977647943, 19.920476186869852, 15.490307685649181, 35.97821817534557, 28.07578700848913, 24.459533610303122, 21.55465737600884, 32.370260923606246, 22.65474232885494, 21.49660792854341, 21.59212489384343, 36.03038466355299, 20.722738891456967, 19.084869097409555 ], "crps_clim": [ 22.51064113159216, 21.34178182693399, 17.109998394156545, 24.703975408517493, 122.2696629923497, 34.35098937579959, 37.99006225524478, 38.26557578034132, 17.080571907583543, 17.74984365790482, 26.57914721869575, 20.704500238866018, 20.302011916608773, 36.321622918341355, 19.07649303993666, 24.496312766356763, 20.70257424683409, 24.33223915547966, 23.533815992682083, 20.40174081976945, 20.534635777607914, 33.59238533966214, 24.32853834433991, 20.828282238756913 ], "rps": [ 0.5261596068986082, 0.41488506195415065, 0.46934555743768364, 0.4643888612134177, 0.34150860000176175, 0.5004440330738884, 0.43693547349928974, 0.604712661061504, 0.37813980627606164, 0.47713739384110576, 0.612771186472798, 0.3606307743515829, 0.348748419949698, 0.4654265957085023, 0.5832687079090524, 0.455218375871078, 0.4269633604868316, 0.6290250532647415, 0.423992979023447, 0.4226511550419107, 0.4152272225605414, 0.534826016895431, 0.3420522328025808, 0.398881682789013 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.43940389525455414, 0.46658159808332234, 0.4078016609722334, 0.5058326556309144, 0.5395139575622566, 0.49558246733465433, 0.4802715225811077, 0.49404333105867937, 0.39146218082661743, 0.427716413607736, 0.5144532326749148, 0.3688788606345833, 0.45641496128233255, 0.4825359164875749, 0.4144568430509284, 0.43646088297845814, 0.42094222250140517, 0.4840252597737128, 0.47195865794782255, 0.4060822454153488, 0.4076181814082607, 0.4985033826792915, 0.4183880428687596, 0.4537770988799093 ], "bias": [ -18.95648115540788, 22.730854346410393, 26.826456738222554, 36.66132572013527, -125.11650791757128, -23.451572081286326, -24.227530569460935, -51.65255393078218, -0.6362552758668961, 17.39062813860279, 56.259848299368095, 13.472816199684237, 26.326551043942757, -41.37481832216968, 47.99907273704678, -22.395416714659227, -1.9357728963091525, 56.14709135592163, 23.98745196801875, 18.39194084112371, -14.944995196683779, -45.1644410534716, 12.310706468461103, 12.554248825122786 ], "mae": [ 35.113859450102275, 32.796375451610395, 32.75983796917777, 39.84602288392219, 125.70999994656647, 48.261263773406235, 47.54428991268772, 54.86849215143133, 24.009841429280566, 35.4252277542124, 56.35684398226357, 26.894300196237847, 29.974643589000674, 45.41242381422684, 48.73661946039339, 31.74893073054795, 28.07893694080061, 56.432081219429776, 39.76502779643013, 33.71577697484817, 24.94681084987886, 46.99022529462649, 31.4006297319025, 31.939155925264632 ], "mse": [ 2307.8070956469146, 1688.211079065993, 1717.9658322232324, 2068.3306594346195, 22110.987617418086, 3869.668693380167, 4120.704736291091, 4864.611384406783, 946.4755968626919, 1998.2153892749945, 3938.9509742048735, 1381.752247906785, 1290.574401096913, 3541.7026752678785, 3388.2365788915245, 1911.8121061602221, 1257.7900919926185, 4629.576451463611, 2506.4065369113864, 1971.1200223034011, 1071.0992167994384, 3402.9737078142193, 1641.4776987367366, 1647.450616128787 ], "var": [ 2789.856916143947, 3828.2139621406436, 2935.434512766131, 2800.6749708775224, 3126.88792009589, 2378.3652753204183, 3075.3181831553666, 3078.238805058406, 2578.1507024152734, 3669.4247437358536, 3843.2047365522167, 3449.694609505681, 2580.566594042408, 3004.0598215984214, 3279.5218546635197, 2656.229789258366, 4197.253859100007, 3402.724702087511, 3150.361872904133, 2915.7596618339735, 3479.6404881287417, 2553.8645752215853, 6059.761828639693, 2350.6306529954454 ], "zero": [ 0.002673797719717986, 0.0023795602733451375, 0.0024862346025994906, 0.0024062920199449615, 0.0026471387269060643, 0.002673895741453541, 0.0026471387269060643, 0.0026471387269060643, 0.002486701286308512, 0.002486372470384127, 0.0025935348265213897, 0.0026471387269060643, 0.002433010561583299, 0.0026471387269060643, 0.00259398045978954, 0.0026471387269060643, 0.0026471387269060643, 0.0024062192661570593, 0.0025134275785141805, 0.002540529038703619, 0.0026471387269060643, 0.0026471387269060643, 0.00245988118987407, 0.0023261088522592175 ] }, "crps": 28.572568259911908, "crpss": 0.004884237918605372, "rps": 0.45972253409936165, "rpss": -0.01384171861343253, "mean_bias_mm": 0.05011031534966174, "mean_mae_mm": 42.03031738451037, "mean_rmse_mm": 57.472421433270554, "spread_error_ratio": 0.9867294208833689, "zero_fraction": 0.002553491434554613, "correlation": 0.06575107174768414, "pit_histogram": [ 0.13637, 0.0861, 0.09127, 0.0941, 0.0931, 0.09146, 0.09295, 0.09741, 0.10385, 0.11338 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.10719670644877703 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 18.921747054951666, 24.792433302330927, 17.23273319584303, 20.51118866277095, 124.59076459828103, 24.790931899482082, 19.29458433622633, 58.324712931431904, 20.140790790086292, 19.72597342587995, 32.2232184461025, 22.831395564619044, 20.316685018638893, 52.96939907950846, 30.63946821587046, 35.715978432592166, 18.741252437549015, 33.70634598699975, 24.323007061754893, 22.87666695277795, 19.1269420047541, 36.13373386842733, 26.612460882006307, 24.728783251685922 ], "crps_clim": [ 20.16546441774922, 22.76670826790671, 16.94469548167337, 31.09433614253317, 155.68767899429207, 31.182604674802132, 20.063728628019742, 47.67425501377674, 21.053644879747303, 19.513270179453034, 33.170969511215155, 22.839448378093994, 28.243116177805117, 53.561271942272995, 21.37134058167887, 35.54201609868039, 17.47907876438195, 31.583296905530318, 26.57160898637116, 24.874887655242915, 18.60790218298319, 31.38851277619512, 38.48344091464168, 29.783372053088755 ], "rps": [ 0.3965977335040274, 0.42224624564975183, 0.34861921457461337, 0.31337092487134516, 0.25312529583666654, 0.35294591195784764, 0.39789049311773506, 0.6858018009402059, 0.40343046624321166, 0.40367857040792, 0.508809681344802, 0.3751932939829507, 0.34277328347519775, 0.5134926095732734, 0.6008460333405147, 0.5069379390282146, 0.34421029986360896, 0.5187116952836848, 0.36882948718640346, 0.3305724731596063, 0.3542995188825159, 0.5637075905333753, 0.25588496183012494, 0.4092377608063142 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4283784846339526, 0.42670630481309463, 0.3446648823501038, 0.5130077295664848, 0.5410158900803291, 0.48132609963069506, 0.42143417253271964, 0.499616375801894, 0.4182216041304011, 0.40244267787358307, 0.5388940330394029, 0.3853584884109886, 0.5182825813030848, 0.5208909812511145, 0.44508072206563115, 0.4785608793092128, 0.35798102791050807, 0.4969649369586475, 0.42935647251841336, 0.3854220274094116, 0.34929100974978367, 0.4752706362743161, 0.48976956652503323, 0.5267262488889791 ], "bias": [ 4.872831584329481, 19.130680305294117, 11.642562294828025, 38.19974418105789, -152.11000656097397, 20.002174064530518, 19.427206990039224, -70.04459425672373, -7.784641772871947, -13.474269584631458, 61.591139929118725, 22.975123172855987, 43.301409901365396, -64.63550802778099, 53.65295176154546, -44.574050862116046, 15.124771283770935, 55.679403119388425, 0.19588829297800556, -5.457157274035461, -4.247871023102264, -44.70130424008866, -3.3050307261563723, 43.12183383226746 ], "mae": [ 29.295184301962145, 35.71695925428035, 24.537975772414537, 39.65114864932331, 153.16647759517608, 41.97683587981728, 29.62795240579274, 74.39704860704107, 28.0081695630372, 23.12656081422515, 61.59318292782493, 32.120266696895996, 43.39743031169568, 67.2234783010721, 54.859004823522156, 45.547440694334284, 27.013894627372043, 56.121394563480166, 35.40830575707553, 29.491496167788423, 22.29901610507825, 47.86591766489295, 31.22481341005547, 46.20264449941873 ], "mse": [ 1302.445286039206, 2061.678043304412, 965.988832966111, 1977.862241327329, 30695.802290969565, 2684.059469623779, 1284.2980579829123, 7675.735079597857, 1328.083344702123, 942.1640505459003, 4223.03722143018, 1682.5127441981863, 2219.5883037231374, 6247.073543577617, 3821.3633977792992, 3427.8639447590763, 1052.5943388550622, 4329.288841886585, 2010.2678504717715, 1547.1820961405276, 850.4374592236819, 3360.0838599183476, 1887.8264355385058, 2623.25360676415 ], "var": [ 2965.25906855987, 6134.218280751072, 3686.7502520988337, 3367.5790703342263, 3411.78780503824, 2558.039646037786, 3353.5155498038735, 3241.6734820890724, 2726.5781289567235, 3234.1104912221854, 4417.849790634766, 5353.881798942656, 3856.28469971123, 3873.9260398523284, 4569.391741690717, 3937.0116471964493, 6240.430881746399, 3166.5571126979494, 3464.2005283292287, 4047.645350316135, 4264.403546999691, 2760.300421238452, 9765.799899668009, 3182.2252910441625 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 31.219633225023788, "crpss": 0.06299714033973702, "rps": 0.4154672202247463, "rpss": 0.08307848054024214, "mean_bias_mm": -0.0590297339629681, "mean_mae_mm": 44.99469164139902, "mean_rmse_mm": 61.30541382473402, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0400989744330926, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.2690243568742898, "pit_histogram": [ 0.10007, 0.08718, 0.09903, 0.11151, 0.11141, 0.10444, 0.09314, 0.08358, 0.0994, 0.11023 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.0753328993204843 } }, "operational": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 22.145718505172145, 15.924032024177746, 54.74741459691129, 15.969248967170303, 24.397284611210896, 15.92932800111631, 40.87379726983034, 40.64146437775921 ], "crps_clim": [ 20.32105586449988, 16.40570046524331, 65.52791755840862, 17.64632053938275, 24.293868622000836, 16.66802739812226, 40.184015667195084, 32.98246918464377 ], "rps": [ 0.45407206786822274, 0.3712163662067604, 0.4732483752259352, 0.33731497273025396, 0.4644756746950432, 0.30023218108315874, 0.46404250241655054, 0.6254582536799843 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4122606865060767, 0.37346476193268074, 0.5449498617316163, 0.36687869557844566, 0.47023810687668466, 0.3514902720415714, 0.4617152805402287, 0.46890906592470627 ], "bias": [ -14.112304629369957, -1.2685281406370663, -70.31750478008586, 0.9878265691644295, 10.13264367771028, 9.793723055327437, -47.29303331636554, -47.56996089783662 ], "mae": [ 29.206070564474206, 18.99816890786398, 71.83116990385327, 21.450853328626515, 35.725659975940104, 22.61189372861436, 54.511182886596536, 52.77326956479073 ], "mse": [ 1482.3809093933821, 575.8057467560052, 7344.899404720533, 1012.9731903482523, 1825.5233751427036, 825.4334374134353, 5093.147719009099, 4575.547068701027 ], "var": [ 2820.0239966290815, 2809.2050064793675, 5164.176134249588, 2494.4048339169212, 2505.6508590435524, 3710.602520933439, 3224.411222980315, 2192.5278127628867 ], "zero": [ 0.002582320952046623, 0.002582308316999345, 0.0025692528183152885, 0.002595363815683401, 0.0025823083169993445, 0.0025692528183152885, 0.0025692528183152885, 0.0026084569707108623 ] }, "crps": 28.82853604416853, "crpss": 0.014532735225207372, "rps": 0.4362575492382386, "rpss": -0.01163905748858407, "mean_bias_mm": -19.95589230776161, "mean_mae_mm": 38.388533607594965, "mean_rmse_mm": 53.310072748361115, "spread_error_ratio": 1.046956131570863, "zero_fraction": 0.00258231460342318, "correlation": 0.25848695173894065, "pit_histogram": [ 0.02175, 0.02738, 0.04518, 0.08095, 0.11086, 0.13127, 0.1247, 0.12894, 0.14594, 0.18304 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.4494881050609886 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 26.62516416738325, 15.060479884017088, 64.43362649130786, 22.13772066995556, 23.45185934585409, 15.600645896249242, 55.82515257791606, 22.915084891867814 ], "crps_clim": [ 24.012970318608165, 17.14717700571395, 95.49608165309667, 24.212333377463093, 25.06890034808142, 15.600720521826346, 60.26104362729821, 20.04862260959093 ], "rps": [ 0.4577978852507679, 0.3183488977784606, 0.26169598388198306, 0.36162598693243964, 0.45627889776547814, 0.32175376802224415, 0.4518708805465123, 0.44050816458803016 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.41878823842713037, 0.35324432725808413, 0.5497651995010865, 0.41409150307530557, 0.5005547552283075, 0.3283216384408885, 0.5179393125380852, 0.38569803603839053 ], "bias": [ -24.585205366492787, 6.828860930896186, -80.37529817574321, -3.67103255587416, 43.796714658105415, 14.162338230660888, -65.85899678260375, -17.693091283565295 ], "mae": [ 30.79894654262933, 20.233565423354726, 84.16765090932435, 30.867875045866658, 44.430187092465815, 21.495289275235688, 73.84425688581263, 30.811570331215293 ], "mse": [ 1549.8650506856563, 590.7871842396702, 9752.951629991827, 1862.2204671562097, 2322.8646934351355, 631.1880276378386, 7547.073674367065, 1612.6547702882917 ], "var": [ 4007.8372385048615, 3266.97260108373, 8592.768090976095, 3074.793162025398, 3432.4160558170743, 3781.8586448726987, 4770.771192543584, 2730.245892049987 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 30.75621674056887, "crpss": 0.1270122003964237, "rps": 0.3837350580957395, "rpss": 0.11490087643623492, "mean_bias_mm": -15.924463793077091, "mean_mae_mm": 42.08116768823806, "mean_rmse_mm": 56.865637139007, "spread_error_ratio": 1.1406360018848938, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.6942884094565841, "pit_histogram": [ 0.0252, 0.03949, 0.07099, 0.11347, 0.13763, 0.10667, 0.11219, 0.12246, 0.14004, 0.13186 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.32863639816982027 } }, "full": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 24.693703779063483, 20.899374516886592, 22.20806675884484, 23.689447411980968, 91.96054165131801, 30.97547405053421, 32.789327328104434, 39.971500151432195, 15.930928214180044, 22.7383171731805, 34.162852684339676, 20.067558868714535, 17.11471700362358, 31.827916255382142, 32.232958840362194, 23.160419693820277, 20.88406743085498, 36.87191933949044, 25.078730652508714, 24.32010042575822, 19.72598304896558, 31.972103336200714, 22.18302697890303, 19.117508589607205, 21.204820679043426, 15.263211326542239, 52.43582480699937, 16.103459038668547, 25.096644123007646, 16.121686924033096, 38.69292965688166, 38.60246094416125 ], "crps_clim": [ 21.565188759301577, 23.38563063557986, 19.097928412475547, 27.65831750898805, 115.86467554318806, 32.608713982744845, 35.74981363535668, 35.27522856142174, 17.037873658289875, 19.249766823627166, 29.95460921092147, 21.757280334006133, 22.589855526865747, 32.8860898565903, 21.287962454192346, 23.34276551652251, 20.5096382411715, 27.15997168831795, 25.49780817078038, 22.130467654701782, 19.335150240563912, 30.517713481749208, 23.826246347839884, 21.865464318236576, 19.893432351136823, 17.03329139891581, 64.14883327049633, 18.974050124817815, 25.33605920687928, 16.45512833366636, 38.480365999726736, 31.353009520945946 ], "rps": [ 0.4936596750684213, 0.41923884129536126, 0.5126881516457253, 0.48235315841117965, 0.32648142904616867, 0.46109457930898184, 0.4302494557011212, 0.5740904284482844, 0.3847759256511257, 0.49782978780047976, 0.6581196510471016, 0.356353123981567, 0.3778557498669649, 0.4270592631829392, 0.6676344625802422, 0.43915604261360164, 0.4073450171883032, 0.6673714445359541, 0.45656528841886407, 0.45970029701480697, 0.39104361212046235, 0.5119159913123236, 0.4014495348240434, 0.39774865059164244, 0.44432877245666913, 0.34209201797437155, 0.45948177371911997, 0.33755713830225337, 0.4598368965089464, 0.3137722070406473, 0.45725873379517357, 0.6105083778796077 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4235467576215105, 0.47608889223006146, 0.42116084841535095, 0.52922569582888, 0.5521940842175864, 0.48422399901825147, 0.4817361166669598, 0.48212565828300324, 0.39092541948658205, 0.43695066648742936, 0.5455763971634705, 0.37045590341108353, 0.4938985727810239, 0.45690686490267524, 0.44941552111033356, 0.42409929339583347, 0.4060824902077587, 0.5026173106347752, 0.49052948788469664, 0.41131287431461633, 0.38663843087009825, 0.4959596204449516, 0.4216770610806586, 0.46451823268332443, 0.4095379456154036, 0.3675043388775151, 0.5502738168335921, 0.3945497358652498, 0.47350515274771016, 0.3484831583622997, 0.46150350689172287, 0.4645838963389065 ], "bias": [ -15.040401676961395, 27.507980689625246, 32.183938426896326, 41.24692375074972, -116.60836814319974, -18.62964711627134, -18.369824572988655, -46.297762360417465, 4.635466709426069, 22.956077183651384, 61.36580829678711, 17.683309925331397, 30.67538858243171, -35.4270110857565, 53.76374040305096, -17.101021165339922, 2.8748003829719084, 61.767970596147514, 29.01818256538713, 24.064176428182893, -9.690516719752347, -39.55185066780165, 19.108958736482563, 16.591026284671553, -9.69304306972591, 3.182536864673433, -67.47976658765394, 5.230207851271985, 15.510436520818933, 16.27683989056061, -43.69107163318621, -44.63375611589135 ], "mae": [ 33.21921353869675, 35.12595772451151, 36.437439079336606, 43.64650484761358, 117.57587638938799, 45.24041999988696, 45.54085435899756, 50.53160535813293, 24.07194974557404, 38.07286125999974, 61.44137109409771, 28.404990112556256, 33.02433684618176, 40.75351874711237, 54.222164181064386, 30.151303035218074, 28.582154090379056, 61.89652481792747, 42.69310404551998, 37.81953444622537, 23.82430227401512, 42.341004148525876, 35.04954200649752, 32.21764847636724, 27.886914619495844, 19.156594357796493, 69.31481529318003, 23.162843511031056, 37.51009350886863, 25.045346166632246, 52.16366650313752, 50.56798629321638 ], "mse": [ 2074.6701393097483, 1893.2408130314432, 2120.7936626011287, 2459.808051439273, 19985.354532645386, 3397.650235923226, 3677.8309395730976, 4290.705087402945, 932.4003803960439, 2292.7489020603184, 4628.820445072146, 1575.3719024531117, 1537.73585934286, 2964.6482835752217, 4088.851222888972, 1716.443286193911, 1257.9154049389215, 5436.690638743946, 2856.006215845851, 2385.8109999524077, 948.1669276804108, 2840.178381226323, 1930.3446297880703, 1648.4572640557872, 1329.8950294039932, 577.45776324775, 6937.091328824096, 1065.7263319216447, 2025.3159171123589, 932.0670669998428, 4703.247271081781, 4227.392564152387 ], "var": [ 2728.318850534421, 3706.280528913049, 2832.7256493728432, 2742.261874956089, 3494.9631752045925, 2345.1786819152258, 3082.1758714333005, 3062.291202812692, 2493.7941050254103, 3545.3365830252337, 3711.538117001902, 3383.3907197785784, 2521.7402387115076, 2949.58918581819, 3161.454209811066, 2675.2031075341342, 4052.9053574742697, 3298.5268782910002, 3041.526056339373, 2834.9796796025284, 3421.462671739714, 2486.079221637139, 5756.202399257444, 2299.567108432967, 2819.4191618820696, 2828.200756767864, 4891.558916137101, 2489.3183660252434, 2473.7352730611697, 3759.4394181946323, 3124.964181576768, 2150.155274125643 ], "zero": [ 0.002058841544187775, 0.0019522101456415264, 0.0020055023557689227, 0.0019789671601890026, 0.002058968390993764, 0.0020055023557689227, 0.002032259370316399, 0.002032259370316399, 0.0019788180950093496, 0.0019788180950093496, 0.0020055023557689227, 0.002032259370316399, 0.0020055023557689227, 0.002032259370316399, 0.002032259370316399, 0.0021126904955097526, 0.002032259370316399, 0.0020055023557689227, 0.0020055751095568257, 0.002032259370316399, 0.002032259370316399, 0.002032259370316399, 0.0019789671601890026, 0.0018988668920700317, 0.0020055523573060175, 0.002149972431475275, 0.002123740313985096, 0.002136755175626617, 0.002123740313985096, 0.002110672180253762, 0.0021367427893777676, 0.0021106848153010396 ] }, "crps": 28.378049427606058, "crpss": 0.014895125945147303, "rps": 0.4570817337291392, "rpss": -0.010976626963525193, "mean_bias_mm": 0.10717903669287487, "mean_mae_mm": 41.45913877741201, "mean_rmse_mm": 56.107830747723064, "spread_error_ratio": 0.9971442184300079, "zero_fraction": 0.0020380759242924766, "correlation": 0.11125362058322336, "pit_histogram": [ 0.13548, 0.08379, 0.08719, 0.09113, 0.09642, 0.09643, 0.09492, 0.10078, 0.10215, 0.11169 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.1002087504777963 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 18.154792034545483, 25.145863080065908, 17.344984996228717, 21.76703518709421, 117.0800773387728, 25.054722257032502, 19.892433939997368, 55.39708164037774, 19.49366931200609, 18.430019623469615, 34.66863626019264, 23.259783093524806, 21.80762470544407, 48.39800624096018, 32.6894172497273, 33.155518109865405, 18.74569009990614, 36.169094366281385, 24.490632962750826, 22.910502265845757, 18.24532485014551, 34.08649642922176, 26.331551349732056, 26.496486928504773, 25.862923165725913, 15.242359408421017, 63.440346771205846, 22.235038867194696, 26.464458072599346, 16.026990910558602, 54.52035621174328, 21.920585936088777 ], "crps_clim": [ 20.62823078391462, 22.736075489400832, 17.20303065300768, 33.38592024446952, 148.69890061775828, 32.54163468771625, 20.813924730768786, 45.34936829224909, 21.110172436165435, 18.987977073987647, 35.64746457072699, 24.18698188499711, 30.543634191772295, 49.7010744586202, 22.788748659461, 33.02631501609522, 18.025620044910095, 33.698138045350596, 26.182976675526973, 24.697762649323387, 18.323363286191857, 30.274060611645748, 36.95358378488871, 31.968592033538773, 23.529333965483502, 18.554147550975507, 95.7655520497254, 24.80422585413712, 28.59879576238074, 16.421943505646766, 59.22616150944826, 19.837161306589184 ], "rps": [ 0.3848064176483607, 0.4297369682361317, 0.3520863547083984, 0.31810702922762096, 0.24881483536915752, 0.34065266883989426, 0.4068252479332174, 0.6771523973222425, 0.39183297838847186, 0.3762504325891017, 0.516633200408194, 0.3859304732223937, 0.34472224007955593, 0.4878602923881248, 0.639445624474247, 0.5031359236427938, 0.3389115660510871, 0.530853104311433, 0.4004133173996359, 0.3374911334479325, 0.34588659036899244, 0.5629170087445449, 0.2615879470558136, 0.42239360835006223, 0.4673952956041472, 0.3154212836368627, 0.24429789794287393, 0.3790537861330816, 0.46122568579417933, 0.33051664930505525, 0.4453580016316213, 0.4279286601261718 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4353624306832978, 0.4191800777990544, 0.33092642730556393, 0.5345989952281157, 0.5549256946518838, 0.4853155529512196, 0.4290652521208975, 0.49985640326148617, 0.40930380959521595, 0.37730746282751154, 0.5561589821998123, 0.3968450353921786, 0.5352098508957999, 0.5197317160936026, 0.4622154279575823, 0.47965872542692495, 0.3452359656196985, 0.510985845909633, 0.4364472915440719, 0.37533126250969556, 0.33575420241270676, 0.47704841054116015, 0.48221255024125415, 0.5432080506356914, 0.4191937836801347, 0.36236938480584985, 0.5586414801407072, 0.4345261685934756, 0.5204520422939962, 0.3377365051099261, 0.5222952003256466, 0.37908107264058183 ], "bias": [ 8.070367975307864, 23.730083126369948, 15.510307730602367, 41.04333527322086, -144.76327817466458, 22.92947161239067, 23.183744471379566, -65.73887323315975, -3.8198668573687504, -9.331506543111637, 64.96130549725918, 26.43626890317049, 46.401584325642325, -59.710943979750894, 57.770985170248274, -40.0443269951025, 19.27824526519037, 59.267976617593305, 4.715266144926072, -0.7439999385756836, -0.13821586022570584, -40.42899165136332, 2.5167136613722554, 46.155210713552975, -21.452383457228784, 10.41125706145579, -78.45623367004535, -0.08715402243546932, 49.0143865065297, 18.72164578167268, -63.848076985348314, -14.758898448106866 ], "mae": [ 29.452401775334447, 36.170253611035136, 24.94129343842883, 42.20596324924611, 146.1190294550866, 42.592749622409215, 32.272788794276835, 70.82569288570963, 27.57062987672134, 21.41692678550466, 64.96130549725918, 34.61804688925056, 46.42092952022444, 62.15276337820782, 58.53439664446377, 41.62161760663592, 29.399449317980988, 59.58567948300296, 35.93817295740981, 31.148655780167704, 22.735704699186467, 45.03213661864279, 33.37509059146583, 48.46534333764052, 28.855079177263207, 21.143233503764296, 83.00746697490756, 32.08197977818536, 49.301987405176135, 24.368656514195408, 72.23182238704108, 29.6789956965563 ], "mse": [ 1278.2972365963421, 2089.3382958818543, 1001.9682941334978, 2214.918678954429, 28570.72590557825, 2660.939344347712, 1483.8751070913015, 7066.282310963963, 1278.605782989601, 808.189413690493, 4646.376257171569, 1949.7933381320531, 2518.528237671922, 5425.860421834917, 4287.8093936163805, 2962.183699298769, 1197.2460950363627, 4819.315872010957, 2022.3788490580994, 1633.6541973979606, 830.4241179842135, 3016.719469840183, 2063.6937284273995, 2861.332422414229, 1380.125535222617, 642.0997612308765, 9485.134495286355, 1877.4138651408032, 2799.6734807255507, 801.2153438015132, 7206.6540100590155, 1475.3841251849963 ], "var": [ 2911.295094416868, 5968.503317972753, 3605.6163024077673, 3383.411228309348, 3916.6044609731184, 2537.3256949282777, 3369.901392148235, 3368.731099543633, 2727.591436538946, 3120.901860629953, 4356.888698735757, 5238.538457246248, 3855.146419808971, 3897.681727603268, 4528.7540183629735, 4074.5814242395595, 6067.715436520467, 3142.1465554168904, 3472.8399271939356, 4036.7098506471702, 4300.51425657277, 2759.409962978119, 9383.459722710986, 3113.6212614119618, 4134.41411108508, 3353.050478619018, 8076.160011225974, 3132.2681802196294, 3482.3570306188094, 3941.027000515909, 4600.043053507465, 2774.477774538298 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 30.77901573953845, "crpss": 0.09157108758687493, "rps": 0.40861389438691875, "rpss": 0.09612325707189406, "mean_bias_mm": -0.10014356183134154, "mean_mae_mm": 44.6320701016369, "mean_rmse_mm": 59.779845340730795, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0687951929799027, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.37863942678465634, "pit_histogram": [ 0.10019, 0.08639, 0.09815, 0.10375, 0.10982, 0.10547, 0.0941, 0.09802, 0.10863, 0.09548 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.05571503320542909 } }, "distribution_full": { "ethiopia": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 1.00072754043597, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.006515367866730493 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0082657553686254, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.0267833665506 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.974960904041665, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.08423944028988366 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 0.991448961285213, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.041997259356775056 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0398182973074037, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.06220479263074888 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": -0.0020567382996075053 } }, "ondj_domain": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9989566125079349, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.006806046996576355 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0059351139399457, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.027468105859376875 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9958027132339916, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.06575198213514925 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9913273490500083, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.03562051178295681 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.031392059756944, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.058066275563719655 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": 0.0 } } } }, "sdm": { "training": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 26.88565200685126, 19.05767266372897, 19.28989978986593, 20.98887908020942, 100.7339152674466, 33.899445786227474, 35.37854481691539, 43.78203103900464, 16.29723899943217, 21.193469980384744, 29.773617785626378, 20.140755641998734, 15.39014611723887, 36.104082984890404, 28.278726337275064, 24.407283329956545, 22.19413499745325, 32.310746797591484, 22.274301762768676, 21.618390827275178, 21.873730729334362, 36.27780113095417, 20.869166334137883, 19.210067034140202 ], "crps_clim": [ 22.51064113159216, 21.34178182693399, 17.109998394156545, 24.703975408517493, 122.2696629923497, 34.35098937579959, 37.99006225524478, 38.26557578034132, 17.080571907583543, 17.74984365790482, 26.57914721869575, 20.704500238866018, 20.302011916608773, 36.321622918341355, 19.07649303993666, 24.496312766356763, 20.70257424683409, 24.33223915547966, 23.533815992682083, 20.40174081976945, 20.534635777607914, 33.59238533966214, 24.32853834433991, 20.828282238756913 ], "rps": [ 0.5389177704909215, 0.40486488504573587, 0.45863747097639673, 0.4571685020437629, 0.3462984417656077, 0.5071697633645387, 0.4461652758234506, 0.6106100575227383, 0.37751909061375405, 0.46962894499242924, 0.6064402447249633, 0.3701110531419276, 0.33995011399070163, 0.4808645644953447, 0.5815516044959699, 0.45465042725068844, 0.4507006786382609, 0.6231538003589981, 0.4098143004703011, 0.42603493510815355, 0.4275529600933158, 0.5567789349907747, 0.33616356148819343, 0.3963675068801941 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.43940389525455414, 0.46658159808332234, 0.4078016609722334, 0.5058326556309144, 0.5395139575622566, 0.49558246733465433, 0.4802715225811077, 0.49404333105867937, 0.39146218082661743, 0.427716413607736, 0.5144532326749148, 0.3688788606345833, 0.45641496128233255, 0.4825359164875749, 0.4144568430509284, 0.43646088297845814, 0.42094222250140517, 0.4840252597737128, 0.47195865794782255, 0.4060822454153488, 0.4076181814082607, 0.4985033826792915, 0.4183880428687596, 0.4537770988799093 ], "bias": [ -19.076198287852442, 22.547826747601746, 26.652839793182604, 36.881647070612935, -125.006216946054, -23.40026549666017, -24.003710823550016, -51.6680750878518, -0.8262239721059035, 17.168597177954073, 56.2152086795266, 13.497792922596824, 26.259054330496454, -41.344134022490344, 48.05000438682424, -22.155478301831014, -2.5805363250747213, 55.937769709922144, 23.61828733120437, 18.641355631059625, -15.12268347395569, -45.53941952389776, 11.903913280243795, 12.611335690556954 ], "mae": [ 35.252413723460066, 32.63029253056165, 32.55855902452364, 40.056870914345545, 125.58399941141703, 48.38902393845857, 47.40798486505, 54.87912731678802, 23.89487181044424, 35.19127318666195, 56.31921655322305, 26.88048334843609, 29.937335758256687, 45.42010700415664, 48.79762639309627, 31.5708682232135, 28.38986118512848, 56.22271600221351, 39.34203074617301, 33.85030336254975, 25.131299947776828, 47.352457034367376, 31.13994879250938, 32.13627685337189 ], "mse": [ 2314.5647297159567, 1679.1916021921425, 1687.6872833933398, 2090.807548975346, 22057.96154467702, 3883.0905677646433, 4090.923982839012, 4857.451588957746, 939.6800460566008, 1971.339910648541, 3934.5516164541964, 1373.2504090820269, 1287.3426487768486, 3544.248935417222, 3377.795238488863, 1903.9079331757869, 1288.7693960701463, 4606.122820695386, 2459.6350577648564, 1983.8477109823414, 1083.5794484424978, 3448.848363248564, 1610.6086356037292, 1664.8725267273985 ], "var": [ 2843.403552507079, 3890.442869362982, 3027.245667678433, 2812.7789901016426, 3053.9465031007785, 2395.445745697329, 3106.6392028703604, 3138.440425185224, 2646.292911150945, 3842.389078410811, 3860.099650433828, 3524.256351002252, 2663.973890683174, 3086.64669786616, 3354.343917612351, 2703.642414342815, 4416.46919251124, 3496.715962146373, 3237.0634659309976, 2873.030596858765, 3584.293204099366, 2619.4639381601105, 6188.09862754444, 2399.1785070716774 ], "zero": [ 0.04331427451883196, 0.02794239469312912, 0.026918124895999745, 0.027704269830019602, 0.038495093822736554, 0.03135722614659779, 0.036025371409478125, 0.035873062515531545, 0.029562967180519612, 0.029709011194152254, 0.029646549909382803, 0.03691743455391967, 0.02755351590051587, 0.029838818832132758, 0.025786002407975052, 0.03422648101735856, 0.03202172059170612, 0.03048179816438998, 0.0321309109962096, 0.032689087601929984, 0.031228801441399, 0.02911908799998409, 0.024897847402640574, 0.029971598973207787 ] }, "crps": 28.676237551696158, "crpss": 0.0012736788201058724, "rps": 0.4615464536986302, "rpss": -0.01786407045389171, "mean_bias_mm": -0.03072122956422992, "mean_mae_mm": 42.01395616359097, "mean_rmse_mm": 57.42389149494247, "spread_error_ratio": 0.9976230418145564, "zero_fraction": 0.03139214383332284, "correlation": 0.06578116526724276, "pit_histogram": [ 0.1187, 0.08152, 0.09047, 0.10326, 0.10313, 0.09542, 0.09192, 0.09971, 0.10285, 0.11301 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.08191084293508834 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 19.119548957781944, 24.729680158802616, 17.336861589351543, 20.73963203684531, 124.74464123092567, 25.139286597145336, 19.381111989157993, 58.20673045024981, 20.112109988723034, 19.934791129273496, 31.996965788279706, 23.22980551467168, 20.124639566808142, 53.122890605413225, 30.796745760426628, 35.779000700950796, 19.084854399618834, 33.552571189034836, 24.22416085985249, 22.8024841644352, 19.336180780278376, 35.88794811886737, 27.142244956120596, 24.870586609106148 ], "crps_clim": [ 20.16546441774922, 22.76670826790671, 16.94469548167337, 31.09433614253317, 155.68767899429207, 31.182604674802132, 20.063728628019742, 47.67425501377674, 21.053644879747303, 19.513270179453034, 33.170969511215155, 22.839448378093994, 28.243116177805117, 53.561271942272995, 21.37134058167887, 35.54201609868039, 17.47907876438195, 31.583296905530318, 26.57160898637116, 24.874887655242915, 18.60790218298319, 31.38851277619512, 38.48344091464168, 29.783372053088755 ], "rps": [ 0.39844195550928646, 0.4213070058171088, 0.3445776348814085, 0.3185686837243748, 0.2525138282456825, 0.35786074641496446, 0.4033970615841018, 0.681926403868225, 0.4001908016968107, 0.4100397847891985, 0.49897030948072335, 0.381899549161356, 0.33796556658449, 0.5235827639971091, 0.5983321208600807, 0.5044555400521082, 0.34961742716478084, 0.518163033676796, 0.36380401045603605, 0.32744338024387215, 0.3602164768217247, 0.5587335690545, 0.2556383958935932, 0.41282949353110765 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4283784846339526, 0.42670630481309463, 0.3446648823501038, 0.5130077295664848, 0.5410158900803291, 0.48132609963069506, 0.42143417253271964, 0.499616375801894, 0.4182216041304011, 0.40244267787358307, 0.5388940330394029, 0.3853584884109886, 0.5182825813030848, 0.5208909812511145, 0.44508072206563115, 0.4785608793092128, 0.35798102791050807, 0.4969649369586475, 0.42935647251841336, 0.3854220274094116, 0.34929100974978367, 0.4752706362743161, 0.48976956652503323, 0.5267262488889791 ], "bias": [ 4.983587566032502, 19.314490911822038, 11.682805442502518, 38.39030216163639, -152.1889461793443, 20.209673189818925, 19.59634467904967, -69.86866583729953, -7.543829700985096, -13.522023859921296, 61.53885645237568, 23.237340892970035, 43.49161764843348, -64.55235257512486, 53.70361048332535, -44.384784978154684, 14.960005028846373, 55.519718455894306, 0.17851408194574014, -4.997047429770721, -4.2098742076299915, -44.65055411350663, -3.408086383671557, 43.29863711343502 ], "mae": [ 29.487629823008945, 35.72453795403545, 24.522054756770636, 39.86277299214861, 153.25374080576734, 42.22208561329144, 29.69699820282953, 74.24319697106505, 27.980096795598786, 22.984206033660623, 61.542611148233185, 32.187126764951174, 43.5974892989867, 67.15259328619067, 54.929154602938155, 45.418258252868384, 26.94501219807191, 55.97004790515966, 35.17290876796776, 29.622729173239975, 22.401444055331627, 47.89435103354876, 31.261013568257894, 46.46301803382641 ], "mse": [ 1320.2362001038975, 2069.970598130618, 965.5148329243027, 1998.9136653762785, 30733.355606313577, 2716.142851610901, 1288.4189092969293, 7652.438662688633, 1323.3622224221058, 936.7283371563884, 4218.458397338239, 1682.800621770791, 2236.7205849106995, 6239.417207521626, 3807.8921029041385, 3425.0423618180725, 1046.0116383087727, 4314.1778916206285, 1981.697487106605, 1544.7358082944802, 853.6413481466951, 3361.258383856821, 1888.941844316876, 2651.7953912724697 ], "var": [ 3042.2279922064185, 6214.328711837788, 3733.3016058034855, 3445.280585796423, 3433.472774897569, 2548.4831389838664, 3438.8628028426783, 3297.797273664129, 2754.7597406189752, 3365.582139221687, 4539.409181181676, 5438.225307899485, 3987.345258416604, 3977.4430526246642, 4704.902782750388, 4042.6738872472147, 6525.413180841984, 3288.2145157576165, 3571.8417306303627, 3947.629080145738, 4406.293406427692, 2803.8239717335096, 9975.848578986883, 3259.593100399989 ], "zero": [ 6.975806562410326e-05, 6.975806562410326e-05, 6.975806562410326e-05, 0.0, 6.975806562410326e-05, 6.975806562410326e-05, 6.975806562410326e-05, 6.975806562410326e-05, 6.975806562410326e-05, 6.975806562410326e-05, 6.975806562410326e-05, 6.975806562410326e-05, 6.975806562410326e-05, 6.975806562410326e-05, 6.975806562410326e-05, 6.975806562410326e-05, 6.975806562410326e-05, 6.975806562410326e-05, 6.975806562410326e-05, 6.975806562410326e-05, 6.975806562410326e-05, 6.975806562410326e-05, 6.975806562410326e-05, 0.00013949084401544088 ] }, "crps": 31.308144714255032, "crpss": 0.06034062231069148, "rps": 0.41585314764622666, "rpss": 0.08222675231601895, "mean_bias_mm": 0.0324724517783063, "mean_mae_mm": 45.02229491823953, "mean_rmse_mm": 61.3248430339106, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0512320933849961, "zero_fraction": 6.975701198940468e-05, "correlation": 0.268275254408145, "pit_histogram": [ 0.09893, 0.08778, 0.09762, 0.11055, 0.11569, 0.10371, 0.0925, 0.08534, 0.09774, 0.11013 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.08015730710778396 } }, "operational": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 22.347752813162558, 16.06996207291521, 54.782583204225375, 16.019928550234706, 24.56045666871061, 15.955410253203192, 40.8580160539286, 40.70495481092973 ], "crps_clim": [ 20.32105586449988, 16.40570046524331, 65.52791755840862, 17.64632053938275, 24.293868622000836, 16.66802739812226, 40.184015667195084, 32.98246918464377 ], "rps": [ 0.4558313149165255, 0.3808163563021593, 0.47810105211454434, 0.3472114793916222, 0.4718478339217934, 0.30666718472173504, 0.4724409369760706, 0.63494011941317 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4122606865060767, 0.37346476193268074, 0.5449498617316163, 0.36687869557844566, 0.47023810687668466, 0.3514902720415714, 0.4617152805402287, 0.46890906592470627 ], "bias": [ -14.443365891530707, -1.4562729396656842, -70.46250044022497, 0.9112862090187087, 9.934586955432374, 9.837481843939463, -47.276495289545224, -47.585627539335995 ], "mae": [ 29.247421670783165, 19.081504426918023, 71.93794646441123, 21.433447354005214, 35.75828430770281, 22.500783720371878, 54.57744920928504, 52.823796786523864 ], "mse": [ 1489.497551210806, 578.8578550847718, 7350.1248702114535, 1017.7714846138116, 1828.2434972469266, 813.7426299028466, 5100.214533627916, 4570.858729189823 ], "var": [ 2904.2530967668586, 2854.854564149916, 5194.476904694573, 2499.9835902969185, 2553.9943642438484, 3727.160465041205, 3250.0072620482956, 2184.198909025847 ], "zero": [ 0.03339938699483142, 0.030655886209800635, 0.04130504894525422, 0.046368979975725914, 0.03146466266093206, 0.03042984332849954, 0.029311420161688, 0.04243375633592964 ] }, "crps": 28.91238305341375, "crpss": 0.011666530616904147, "rps": 0.44348203471970254, "rpss": -0.02839194049558258, "mean_bias_mm": -20.067613386489, "mean_mae_mm": 38.42007924250015, "mean_rmse_mm": 53.32601516976535, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0518365157553662, "zero_fraction": 0.035671123076582684, "correlation": 0.25950897473208195, "pit_histogram": [ 0.01955, 0.02806, 0.04301, 0.08062, 0.11039, 0.1326, 0.12823, 0.12485, 0.14807, 0.18462 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.4575223507497387 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 26.840598755769914, 15.075782445890397, 64.40624592546817, 22.134411703710008, 23.694138169363672, 15.750755608174499, 55.68511729004718, 23.01244129166674 ], "crps_clim": [ 24.012970318608165, 17.14717700571395, 95.49608165309667, 24.212333377463093, 25.06890034808142, 15.600720521826346, 60.26104362729821, 20.04862260959093 ], "rps": [ 0.46015721889728206, 0.3172637274894933, 0.25908645345169895, 0.36164121766915985, 0.46284130689113995, 0.3273141922308207, 0.45452823894737354, 0.4465478957886134 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.41878823842713037, 0.35324432725808413, 0.5497651995010865, 0.41409150307530557, 0.5005547552283075, 0.3283216384408885, 0.5179393125380852, 0.38569803603839053 ], "bias": [ -24.624434126425626, 6.983921621921177, -80.33344145134105, -3.5033099382262813, 43.88625717491037, 14.189911614234815, -65.8805220825547, -17.736330954005354 ], "mae": [ 30.80415327127608, 20.295728857329866, 84.04380244500364, 30.995131948050965, 44.53427156296788, 21.534457123194592, 73.9277093747913, 30.945625590045132 ], "mse": [ 1551.1351455640365, 593.5931445073837, 9723.728746494415, 1877.4149544845122, 2335.0531595593043, 632.1451088897144, 7565.230437047618, 1622.3370802937238 ], "var": [ 4064.027656936216, 3295.635187060324, 8614.338275162081, 3042.956334462971, 3439.3363602228305, 3853.742444055274, 4787.893087402662, 2744.265617007674 ], "zero": [ 6.839026041578751e-05, 6.839026041578751e-05, 6.839026041578751e-05, 6.839026041578751e-05, 6.839026041578751e-05, 6.839026041578751e-05, 6.839026041578751e-05, 6.839026041578751e-05 ] }, "crps": 30.824936398761324, "crpss": 0.1250616541474825, "rps": 0.38617253142069774, "rpss": 0.10927875393761155, "mean_bias_mm": -15.87724351768583, "mean_mae_mm": 42.135110021582435, "mean_rmse_mm": 56.8997339370325, "spread_error_ratio": 1.143073173184951, "zero_fraction": 6.839026041578751e-05, "correlation": 0.6924744153246061, "pit_histogram": [ 0.02372, 0.04493, 0.06956, 0.11295, 0.13433, 0.10954, 0.11074, 0.12255, 0.13626, 0.13543 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.32358603654574974 } }, "full": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 24.89208817558919, 20.768940522040612, 22.0154510579457, 23.83717010195062, 92.40804572022263, 31.06899193279993, 32.86480582917121, 40.07486487386069, 15.926881062737541, 22.692444730331776, 34.12521499658085, 20.247401797648653, 16.94711580258607, 31.99471868118549, 32.27704191559867, 23.166584924682667, 21.317866524094057, 36.64471080138189, 24.735010246756946, 24.430020079485416, 19.94832441197303, 32.15793498795161, 22.19453113459016, 19.25905014291279, 21.334289826320106, 15.432533551185976, 52.5060746637241, 16.145208692013252, 25.2755693177114, 16.075499370167048, 38.67326759346223, 38.68028801589516 ], "crps_clim": [ 21.565188759301577, 23.38563063557986, 19.097928412475547, 27.65831750898805, 115.86467554318806, 32.608713982744845, 35.74981363535668, 35.27522856142174, 17.037873658289875, 19.249766823627166, 29.95460921092147, 21.757280334006133, 22.589855526865747, 32.8860898565903, 21.287962454192346, 23.34276551652251, 20.5096382411715, 27.15997168831795, 25.49780817078038, 22.130467654701782, 19.335150240563912, 30.517713481749208, 23.826246347839884, 21.865464318236576, 19.893432351136823, 17.03329139891581, 64.14883327049633, 18.974050124817815, 25.33605920687928, 16.45512833366636, 38.480365999726736, 31.353009520945946 ], "rps": [ 0.502745109079555, 0.41095084964030487, 0.5019957798245346, 0.47804416265907357, 0.32882476331298116, 0.46421301166969553, 0.4354916268272658, 0.5800503344472656, 0.37951504469247366, 0.491087415605607, 0.6543887690310161, 0.3628553476987762, 0.3720164253310338, 0.43961313042383904, 0.6638311759937917, 0.43889939425485935, 0.42200600135956584, 0.6645185572498065, 0.4450665458610627, 0.4640300259732001, 0.3980200295200332, 0.5247039813804795, 0.3989227055909102, 0.399422675576501, 0.44396431079876786, 0.3484234972602255, 0.4636982058850547, 0.3444814366970272, 0.4661488159404377, 0.3156284907487128, 0.46185869485255726, 0.6164026022215757 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4235467576215105, 0.47608889223006146, 0.42116084841535095, 0.52922569582888, 0.5521940842175864, 0.48422399901825147, 0.4817361166669598, 0.48212565828300324, 0.39092541948658205, 0.43695066648742936, 0.5455763971634705, 0.37045590341108353, 0.4938985727810239, 0.45690686490267524, 0.44941552111033356, 0.42409929339583347, 0.4060824902077587, 0.5026173106347752, 0.49052948788469664, 0.41131287431461633, 0.38663843087009825, 0.4959596204449516, 0.4216770610806586, 0.46451823268332443, 0.4095379456154036, 0.3675043388775151, 0.5502738168335921, 0.3945497358652498, 0.47350515274771016, 0.3484831583622997, 0.46150350689172287, 0.4645838963389065 ], "bias": [ -15.156209484522575, 27.331862640048275, 31.932765753992445, 41.29074377384186, -116.66663041857832, -18.71543563408717, -18.25632089513368, -46.35286699537502, 4.408412661236962, 22.64584106257534, 61.26163826579966, 17.669668339814, 30.574485025719493, -35.5323335310417, 53.64182402800322, -16.967080520204657, 2.2970912839697406, 61.41529642309532, 28.779001236055272, 24.167757869436326, -9.899694476510428, -39.8595104598571, 18.587494328838357, 16.560150312225552, -10.030335921792334, 2.969718695808862, -67.71019129510552, 5.179967317696811, 15.214104754495231, 16.241898192875038, -43.75251201749082, -44.65378178604273 ], "mae": [ 33.372960717820874, 34.965134153293434, 36.13821192729838, 43.699951290587684, 117.63009009107435, 45.48216529309117, 45.476438379786956, 50.584533981366796, 23.906513813722913, 37.710036631113574, 61.338141667575485, 28.421714710233896, 32.95588349351903, 40.83513217620977, 54.109581737241875, 29.98933727105827, 28.788336107705263, 61.54473667861688, 42.34846739283505, 37.877373315458584, 23.881692524401206, 42.60701003909753, 34.7110429584365, 32.356175518535636, 27.861649863981853, 19.228558952596828, 69.50175224533392, 23.148566283487135, 37.54528834521728, 24.87944140944875, 52.23769130868352, 50.62546581831468 ], "mse": [ 2083.769018729013, 1882.488308292909, 2078.6788724318453, 2469.144382524842, 19960.38025986562, 3426.6847781154092, 3660.627772886105, 4292.908703425612, 922.9943575188627, 2249.740823441023, 4616.350233542485, 1568.1090757308093, 1531.5801641520088, 2973.3694758199335, 4053.587899372782, 1707.336524048945, 1275.2243837205824, 5380.8463769890695, 2818.0751595217553, 2394.018881122543, 952.8569629453496, 2871.841965359211, 1889.1807466986775, 1661.989405615905, 1330.1228259706143, 579.9951729306313, 6957.112704613965, 1068.6518665704225, 2025.7866516534175, 920.2445315908327, 4709.035757077203, 4228.675790594756 ], "var": [ 2768.4468048556014, 3780.7255556656087, 2914.5814358271255, 2756.8521808339865, 3409.653608008708, 2383.4721642250024, 3118.2620748155477, 3122.4569660126685, 2568.3107343616457, 3690.626048363433, 3739.576685425913, 3463.114189556902, 2594.5498724963063, 3033.6189091720566, 3236.5095789955317, 2725.0595926931846, 4229.535808189037, 3402.687556535456, 3116.592992593823, 2796.7401989359273, 3522.964410204518, 2538.7994865313794, 5825.595412522442, 2340.060452149665, 2896.116918987627, 2871.002234532605, 4912.615957597237, 2505.8895180584336, 2528.3435645499617, 3779.817782284921, 3141.2895899366113, 2147.44707022801 ], "zero": [ 0.037313135248483446, 0.021965007395718203, 0.020730035421923313, 0.021862170521520178, 0.03190658225432452, 0.024689633986182413, 0.02962338326379817, 0.029391239285403613, 0.02324108687109078, 0.02384065254142849, 0.023324837088866957, 0.03064803345803116, 0.02171071762633056, 0.02301007344528369, 0.019621327948013204, 0.027504158814515994, 0.02551138505315001, 0.024159938339710273, 0.026368620846723156, 0.026471214094983906, 0.024372471521536928, 0.022316888376243717, 0.018921893183414112, 0.02388845485577748, 0.027223795905983988, 0.025360128670757744, 0.03654498443478193, 0.04187158280779563, 0.026129722016400587, 0.02464946019615781, 0.023609111959174915, 0.037805361656875425 ] }, "crps": 28.441185671392418, "crpss": 0.012703438259137556, "rps": 0.4588068411689997, "rpss": -0.014792231858673732, "mean_bias_mm": -0.04322442094419632, "mean_mae_mm": 41.42997112803579, "mean_rmse_mm": 56.05282381180528, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0065425868055884, "zero_fraction": 0.026424596534074446, "correlation": 0.11088082126989142, "pit_histogram": [ 0.11819, 0.08268, 0.09248, 0.09827, 0.10059, 0.09798, 0.09511, 0.10047, 0.10166, 0.11259 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.06697995920873002 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 18.363292955015275, 25.078550395662504, 17.4693609290715, 21.945090577480297, 117.09922991637714, 25.397793472947995, 19.985902477481005, 55.35261605541628, 19.51492012216957, 18.662115112447722, 34.45964291194283, 23.610213625101718, 21.57361326766704, 48.63308133489406, 32.85692041982035, 33.246207948052614, 18.97010583215214, 36.02038236079608, 24.394872186088026, 22.961762777428763, 18.48309830423555, 33.80512483219636, 26.722795051482493, 26.639007280993184, 26.028361222514693, 15.316078311871149, 63.42065063145931, 22.26497994294512, 26.674069940688394, 16.144478415666192, 54.32563286618997, 22.024291751658264 ], "crps_clim": [ 20.62823078391462, 22.736075489400832, 17.20303065300768, 33.38592024446952, 148.69890061775828, 32.54163468771625, 20.813924730768786, 45.34936829224909, 21.110172436165435, 18.987977073987647, 35.64746457072699, 24.18698188499711, 30.543634191772295, 49.7010744586202, 22.788748659461, 33.02631501609522, 18.025620044910095, 33.698138045350596, 26.182976675526973, 24.697762649323387, 18.323363286191857, 30.274060611645748, 36.95358378488871, 31.968592033538773, 23.529333965483502, 18.554147550975507, 95.7655520497254, 24.80422585413712, 28.59879576238074, 16.421943505646766, 59.22616150944826, 19.837161306589184 ], "rps": [ 0.3895288486763644, 0.42607936378000244, 0.35369096586450893, 0.32161069854953817, 0.24675354657281137, 0.34454101167963025, 0.41099487873639956, 0.6782515590904983, 0.38932833398386196, 0.382422861725839, 0.5113455668040007, 0.39320249444869476, 0.3399557668178624, 0.49865060945059914, 0.6317227756332157, 0.5029032330938229, 0.3430342943933848, 0.5297867939824497, 0.396651285992728, 0.3381363071579704, 0.35321048827583923, 0.5555284452188723, 0.26498233335916366, 0.42554318009428227, 0.4689106421231887, 0.31458433028591126, 0.24172042459884893, 0.3819978678211764, 0.4688618593744247, 0.3349402157423332, 0.44650205825318223, 0.4322779864545988 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4353624306832978, 0.4191800777990544, 0.33092642730556393, 0.5345989952281157, 0.5549256946518838, 0.4853155529512196, 0.4290652521208975, 0.49985640326148617, 0.40930380959521595, 0.37730746282751154, 0.5561589821998123, 0.3968450353921786, 0.5352098508957999, 0.5197317160936026, 0.4622154279575823, 0.47965872542692495, 0.3452359656196985, 0.510985845909633, 0.4364472915440719, 0.37533126250969556, 0.33575420241270676, 0.47704841054116015, 0.48221255024125415, 0.5432080506356914, 0.4191937836801347, 0.36236938480584985, 0.5586414801407072, 0.4345261685934756, 0.5204520422939962, 0.3377365051099261, 0.5222952003256466, 0.37908107264058183 ], "bias": [ 8.19835705717025, 23.961673173373313, 15.568706952936353, 41.18349395549369, -144.69261623040327, 23.136121985890266, 23.288829506003363, -65.60945891402608, -3.5966485009050086, -9.308955745277919, 64.94235107250765, 26.757182940599613, 46.536080043902295, -59.72336279077632, 57.84792841962581, -39.82226784808063, 19.054599075708428, 59.11761858846219, 4.7454669626381065, -0.3651104978018358, -0.2081627465820351, -40.38974980371092, 2.331810994357865, 46.24117513618235, -21.46825713186936, 10.563536688505748, -78.48838689464321, 0.05371465037242852, 49.04708133783936, 18.694095453089933, -63.8372075444266, -14.766158596659798 ], "mae": [ 29.652441178056897, 36.18685196228962, 24.889161116967195, 42.374343986827924, 146.05383838076554, 42.83490965504114, 32.3158097699224, 70.7560418924431, 27.614431936913885, 21.27024501455962, 64.94235107250765, 34.75853923585846, 46.55563606572365, 62.16732870862549, 58.63321392457075, 41.46626177397997, 29.292126335895944, 59.43763494473531, 35.69421474844064, 31.346596134562724, 22.70243664973339, 45.03279844944154, 33.49023001794705, 48.62079204688577, 28.830814508488945, 21.24054137075015, 82.94970098981631, 32.19170232389719, 49.344664871457276, 24.36345707677163, 72.26384511277168, 29.781590046851935 ], "mse": [ 1296.4445915044705, 2093.79694666804, 997.4562120961889, 2231.2609639314396, 28552.551550497046, 2690.281344327961, 1489.473926296833, 7057.684054071686, 1279.48989692428, 801.4911085166143, 4645.955633122199, 1956.1093161450292, 2529.034578708772, 5429.452718077683, 4281.782429035076, 2952.5463819899924, 1187.0844308767828, 4803.007600166215, 1994.6418652510642, 1640.6870697819306, 827.7968133320392, 3018.071000477728, 2067.922905024722, 2880.1301014121377, 1377.7364773219367, 647.5949972749718, 9467.62139014753, 1889.2599396604776, 2805.365830510378, 799.8321525402156, 7213.406533803097, 1482.7152030562993 ], "var": [ 2962.7390288579513, 6075.577309177749, 3646.9622030227542, 3456.9451535822946, 3934.2567706888462, 2527.1268385537537, 3465.036312503241, 3433.372788259711, 2762.1773755662393, 3227.907777154183, 4496.190084651441, 5341.686448974294, 3979.16824452951, 3988.5532712058243, 4622.229637749354, 4181.954127183808, 6296.244161865951, 3251.1653018027214, 3556.0536967817543, 3935.34091870789, 4428.497283618234, 2789.6604043732373, 9449.341699873597, 3170.882222797715, 4181.358422084102, 3366.921476405431, 8076.716616493213, 3119.2141175722277, 3494.527254002526, 4017.3478328100587, 4603.379670965919, 2791.2557320037695 ], "zero": [ 6.975806562410326e-05, 6.975806562410326e-05, 6.975806562410326e-05, 0.0, 6.975806562410326e-05, 6.975806562410326e-05, 6.975806562410326e-05, 6.975806562410326e-05, 6.975806562410326e-05, 6.975806562410326e-05, 6.975806562410326e-05, 6.975806562410326e-05, 6.975806562410326e-05, 6.975806562410326e-05, 6.975806562410326e-05, 6.975806562410326e-05, 6.975806562410326e-05, 6.975806562410326e-05, 6.975806562410326e-05, 6.975806562410326e-05, 6.975806562410326e-05, 6.975806562410326e-05, 6.975806562410326e-05, 0.00013949084401544088, 6.839026041578751e-05, 6.839026041578751e-05, 6.839026041578751e-05, 6.839026041578751e-05, 6.839026041578751e-05, 6.839026041578751e-05, 6.839026041578751e-05, 6.839026041578751e-05 ] }, "crps": 30.8576326009348, "crpss": 0.08925074601065364, "rps": 0.40992659462612513, "rpss": 0.09321949086875247, "mean_bias_mm": -0.031453726578249075, "mean_mae_mm": 44.6579547282344, "mean_rmse_mm": 59.78808565533532, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0767897283232546, "zero_fraction": 6.941532409600039e-05, "correlation": 0.3779953120127977, "pit_histogram": [ 0.09855, 0.08841, 0.09694, 0.10327, 0.11189, 0.10491, 0.09584, 0.0978, 0.10487, 0.09752 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.04988360428061854 } }, "distribution_full": { "ethiopia": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9993843912426222, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.00696513688751996 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0172103407993862, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.029978950247589353 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9488980505540087, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.9579317506653228 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9887756875798084, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.047757110969858595 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.039664192593339, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.06348669224189658 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": 0.022329782310174438 } }, "ondj_domain": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9992410237500525, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.005101463713501885 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0140774069812777, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.02731334670208388 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9820199366618088, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.06627640915097945 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9909003752339632, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.03753756466909463 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0342990565242904, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.05996496138076615 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": 6.941532409600039e-05 } } } }, "cdft": { "training": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 26.677993549530342, 19.270211040677005, 19.822570150111893, 20.808906765821074, 102.85130142885008, 34.57233101139555, 36.04157827519613, 44.39907213300881, 16.180987105555424, 20.343743376100203, 31.072484113960417, 19.934150455700816, 15.997779609680043, 36.080982030262724, 28.714715813744014, 24.52206930748094, 21.22878499227796, 32.94531604980458, 23.313750633323217, 22.163830015439256, 21.454978266756928, 36.10622726359029, 20.630900281692462, 19.913946448564676 ], "crps_clim": [ 22.51064113159216, 21.34178182693399, 17.109998394156545, 24.703975408517493, 122.2696629923497, 34.35098937579959, 37.99006225524478, 38.26557578034132, 17.080571907583543, 17.74984365790482, 26.57914721869575, 20.704500238866018, 20.302011916608773, 36.321622918341355, 19.07649303993666, 24.496312766356763, 20.70257424683409, 24.33223915547966, 23.533815992682083, 20.40174081976945, 20.534635777607914, 33.59238533966214, 24.32853834433991, 20.828282238756913 ], "rps": [ 0.5201653046116791, 0.4510772221902208, 0.4969693623062672, 0.47137750004891904, 0.3406089763518134, 0.4999968506531315, 0.4388199266332733, 0.6041709368370509, 0.3813316470981128, 0.4616268181784605, 0.6302379615457561, 0.3626268808289551, 0.3735040914920506, 0.4542755871542869, 0.6013345700688835, 0.4515880411589157, 0.4065720708615169, 0.6315597642006388, 0.44125184993956396, 0.436201570847367, 0.4065099939555731, 0.5204434361386232, 0.35709633594533186, 0.4236182865949352 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.43940389525455414, 0.46658159808332234, 0.4078016609722334, 0.5058326556309144, 0.5395139575622566, 0.49558246733465433, 0.4802715225811077, 0.49404333105867937, 0.39146218082661743, 0.427716413607736, 0.5144532326749148, 0.3688788606345833, 0.45641496128233255, 0.4825359164875749, 0.4144568430509284, 0.43646088297845814, 0.42094222250140517, 0.4840252597737128, 0.47195865794782255, 0.4060822454153488, 0.4076181814082607, 0.4985033826792915, 0.4183880428687596, 0.4537770988799093 ], "bias": [ -20.781360876780198, 21.444716132637527, 25.144200293649114, 34.409086134086955, -126.55793298332439, -26.12962053612791, -27.03392544720481, -53.92790620635663, -2.2108870343018054, 14.861536961280509, 55.110691335722045, 10.405867410399646, 25.211992503328464, -43.35244650701282, 47.04034509796258, -24.742804979286454, -3.1808720781294335, 54.47087503503498, 23.135245000385435, 16.292791424292872, -16.55838197797898, -46.5821551957924, 10.370854981227952, 10.38543072126795 ], "mae": [ 35.85936820487081, 32.20286261349529, 31.79912155056966, 37.763643381383936, 127.14400105446539, 48.887203840927114, 48.64176866587653, 56.78553026693362, 24.00467263900308, 33.86171273472203, 55.196399184184365, 26.062024109164476, 29.01921827246203, 46.75650601199824, 47.807669402319654, 33.335852586012955, 28.396308987741484, 54.70283265326183, 39.463395784598525, 33.134359981151306, 25.907530683777644, 48.109553543829335, 30.841439978782873, 31.35798522847085 ], "mse": [ 2414.4434622410186, 1626.3130579070453, 1637.846224795187, 1874.8149517617976, 22494.78124962127, 4002.993835971141, 4353.914542651876, 5122.813816246228, 960.6219181935567, 1821.5550580616487, 3770.8968954115085, 1287.3320321888605, 1222.0350698060429, 3697.6427814368312, 3270.523922008813, 2038.0448652213154, 1282.894357144406, 4373.084646519198, 2485.8083705451586, 1949.9972207471596, 1156.010952199646, 3543.426358962093, 1603.3149989434542, 1612.1985711873556 ], "var": [ 2103.205255119422, 2677.859391988437, 2029.0878723340466, 2120.502911939747, 2631.7928388207824, 1771.2402996112178, 2267.849585139917, 2218.4479516260812, 1738.6072478494386, 2510.0762773785664, 2768.5152250610686, 2527.955779373797, 1796.9511778559784, 1929.846921518898, 2241.318408540681, 1892.9092703551976, 2763.2815941119306, 2469.8045093611377, 2170.8783456272367, 2068.186940938022, 2522.7536555615184, 1658.2698243860636, 3759.224325861021, 1703.570356445244 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0013146014881495957, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0017323831565017463, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00021220039840839496, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003180726119545507, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 28.960358754938536, "crpss": -0.008621598535297537, "rps": 0.46512354106838866, "rpss": -0.02575274272376671, "mean_bias_mm": -1.7822775329591576, "mean_mae_mm": 41.96004005666679, "mean_rmse_mm": 57.59170555144081, "spread_error_ratio": 0.8262334842383154, "zero_fraction": 0.0002683296317752185, "correlation": 0.05828487380810174, "pit_histogram": [ 0.18547, 0.05651, 0.07797, 0.08856, 0.09342, 0.09065, 0.09244, 0.09724, 0.09456, 0.12318 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.21730248342245018 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 18.781654876513027, 24.673699440366214, 17.022629800736997, 20.55118468506996, 127.38596794222666, 24.997139660646162, 19.0641819262687, 59.53670730784558, 20.191324979069574, 18.913154187673502, 34.57424650484407, 22.47531383322903, 21.24320501817585, 53.17723135038581, 31.193372268108472, 35.71633750283095, 18.43678281419556, 34.75920580329988, 24.041152144503656, 22.885567680584867, 19.01839060529292, 36.163392011789256, 25.9738334918776, 26.290376788637577 ], "crps_clim": [ 20.16546441774922, 22.76670826790671, 16.94469548167337, 31.09433614253317, 155.68767899429207, 31.182604674802132, 20.063728628019742, 47.67425501377674, 21.053644879747303, 19.513270179453034, 33.170969511215155, 22.839448378093994, 28.243116177805117, 53.561271942272995, 21.37134058167887, 35.54201609868039, 17.47907876438195, 31.583296905530318, 26.57160898637116, 24.874887655242915, 18.60790218298319, 31.38851277619512, 38.48344091464168, 29.783372053088755 ], "rps": [ 0.3861339996811145, 0.4188598266836073, 0.34434143698054753, 0.3090594315994944, 0.2396042131545173, 0.3557351384030378, 0.393258577566007, 0.6862558006346199, 0.4048270826554407, 0.38054586336172186, 0.5279021782359801, 0.3707347903229296, 0.33824586959729236, 0.500738809107703, 0.6101385878830673, 0.5074175613241585, 0.33610730474827033, 0.522336426209551, 0.35281640883031595, 0.3342398959164224, 0.3465174335383085, 0.5533849307545895, 0.24243027294863725, 0.43043053997121145 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4283784846339526, 0.42670630481309463, 0.3446648823501038, 0.5130077295664848, 0.5410158900803291, 0.48132609963069506, 0.42143417253271964, 0.499616375801894, 0.4182216041304011, 0.40244267787358307, 0.5388940330394029, 0.3853584884109886, 0.5182825813030848, 0.5208909812511145, 0.44508072206563115, 0.4785608793092128, 0.35798102791050807, 0.4969649369586475, 0.42935647251841336, 0.3854220274094116, 0.34929100974978367, 0.4752706362743161, 0.48976956652503323, 0.5267262488889791 ], "bias": [ 3.0573020126358, 16.729977830817717, 9.288292607760116, 35.71438845219143, -152.28163595959046, 17.30106587974172, 16.808413479146445, -72.53089053904517, -9.916345248193322, -14.84960302507632, 60.52961135148803, 18.766616506525807, 41.457466166808075, -66.29347476296536, 52.03686495213192, -47.317119755245436, 13.528385492991418, 54.670153075783766, -0.6963186678954096, -9.021541161425997, -5.740008483328111, -46.21095745969629, -5.9511311958520565, 41.30825204835705 ], "mae": [ 28.563022225260983, 35.09478388654934, 23.698555090877313, 37.263937512599284, 153.2992558842074, 39.67138224651816, 28.712577335143887, 76.48755531400886, 28.56030396473094, 23.789939211682952, 60.52961135148803, 29.877501539890737, 41.64511247790098, 68.72627255210934, 53.36124899753709, 47.79978920127424, 26.86341781919732, 55.07576425388877, 35.93399421126068, 29.648131751323202, 22.56615054312776, 48.860017322060926, 31.17859983239094, 44.39946070755838 ], "mse": [ 1265.4762579456162, 1971.9400907152617, 908.7683110838387, 1754.2894176553816, 30646.655253012468, 2473.8253186343377, 1235.1667133727587, 8036.417741095829, 1387.0231302733064, 991.6559341549788, 4045.420540400066, 1493.2263329909877, 2074.8183978772186, 6448.8025377516, 3671.4906040481283, 3595.606080428807, 1020.8354019646334, 4181.361067803184, 2072.733722439701, 1649.0432862754262, 891.960442964826, 3484.3440940924816, 1939.088509559325, 2431.5969511834282 ], "var": [ 1952.000037041456, 3891.309251192525, 2423.6146502206643, 2395.9407234130067, 2681.6708522695644, 1852.727857878507, 2316.2033280984933, 2239.8346127341433, 1765.2777163995318, 1785.3964828283474, 2954.455393800636, 3658.7125571581396, 2643.6262363945857, 2263.750508373507, 3038.8645590874285, 2737.0810081685354, 3932.266099487806, 2050.082595007809, 2198.8909487401515, 2793.8571273444063, 3023.2175325250446, 1705.4910795557885, 5871.987831310237, 2143.4546479269343 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 31.544418859340496, "crpss": 0.053249265791121214, "rps": 0.4121692658378561, "rpss": 0.09035694969576424, "mean_bias_mm": -2.0671765167472778, "mean_mae_mm": 44.65026605135781, "mean_rmse_mm": 61.12539915947502, "spread_error_ratio": 0.8469245500653241, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.28152454417852735, "pit_histogram": [ 0.15227, 0.04996, 0.09164, 0.10683, 0.11068, 0.10243, 0.0911, 0.08316, 0.09437, 0.11756 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.17955339287018177 } }, "operational": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 22.15206809662399, 16.07882800567882, 55.65140215338533, 16.077127638129348, 24.170372960514054, 15.646329460907426, 41.07650291361437, 41.421234575502616 ], "crps_clim": [ 20.32105586449988, 16.40570046524331, 65.52791755840862, 17.64632053938275, 24.293868622000836, 16.66802739812226, 40.184015667195084, 32.98246918464377 ], "rps": [ 0.4647742010988038, 0.36976968665790316, 0.4844230305175375, 0.33861698356852327, 0.45617219196689357, 0.2961668234173232, 0.45921837180985076, 0.6288155861475146 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4122606865060767, 0.37346476193268074, 0.5449498617316163, 0.36687869557844566, 0.47023810687668466, 0.3514902720415714, 0.4617152805402287, 0.46890906592470627 ], "bias": [ -15.366712215908915, -2.2970828324414687, -72.84489685165377, -0.6933054182905275, 8.65711143080488, 8.183532169768016, -48.40188253856218, -49.59320180322028 ], "mae": [ 29.597762345661604, 18.673781868331883, 74.20253070685983, 20.463620650959186, 35.53704290516782, 22.068466412883833, 55.34027995043198, 54.06248376325549 ], "mse": [ 1522.707326829833, 564.34005921681, 7828.343965506484, 973.4068762713317, 1789.913657725723, 820.3775398573669, 5261.876571136735, 4796.245893610535 ], "var": [ 2180.3978964030966, 2397.554463724465, 4186.529953388052, 2076.4214387915968, 1941.987671732413, 2859.609493081829, 2552.4984065640233, 1789.4935547257696 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012362701437401225, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00013002475392671258 ] }, "crps": 29.034233225544494, "crpss": 0.007501235658532002, "rps": 0.43724460939804377, "rpss": -0.01392795452083817, "mean_bias_mm": -21.54455475743803, "mean_mae_mm": 38.74324607544395, "mean_rmse_mm": 54.264643058527085, "spread_error_ratio": 0.921053001035934, "zero_fraction": 0.00017078686220835438, "correlation": 0.24223251370458365, "pit_histogram": [ 0.03093, 0.02318, 0.04395, 0.07975, 0.11161, 0.12721, 0.12744, 0.12605, 0.14105, 0.18883 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.4443921350941712 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 26.74619970565132, 15.242784495171389, 65.24514191830333, 22.25193683326439, 23.284222343549388, 15.486067896982815, 56.136231844172904, 22.99343651788801 ], "crps_clim": [ 24.012970318608165, 17.14717700571395, 95.49608165309667, 24.212333377463093, 25.06890034808142, 15.600720521826346, 60.26104362729821, 20.04862260959093 ], "rps": [ 0.4634205447548889, 0.321772835354719, 0.26493379203478273, 0.36128603629066675, 0.4521702357678982, 0.31772648219959776, 0.44687688711267687, 0.44321883452590716 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.41878823842713037, 0.35324432725808413, 0.5497651995010865, 0.41409150307530557, 0.5005547552283075, 0.3283216384408885, 0.5179393125380852, 0.38569803603839053 ], "bias": [ -26.446328364553697, 5.337823830046699, -83.56451522156806, -6.19439652562565, 41.92897818544683, 12.41159701873555, -67.57271035923432, -19.731880647498926 ], "mae": [ 32.007860835776206, 19.24098327787002, 86.99628212585998, 29.57515116446177, 42.611027619712374, 20.121561601033065, 75.0238570415167, 30.983250747261895 ], "mse": [ 1638.5501762322504, 554.3910233262646, 10424.774254080115, 1809.341407385368, 2153.884531490874, 575.9435567313772, 7789.303246447026, 1642.1129094286898 ], "var": [ 3182.0566596814797, 2749.189933480219, 6658.072650571422, 2466.697636970671, 2734.7519100525, 2848.428163791702, 3517.031948350143, 2120.003781591519 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 30.923252694372948, "crpss": 0.12227103372445913, "rps": 0.3839257060051422, "rpss": 0.11446113997233465, "mean_bias_mm": -17.97892901053145, "mean_mae_mm": 42.0699968016865, "mean_rmse_mm": 57.650131293347854, "spread_error_ratio": 0.9941141495999223, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.6861710346664065, "pit_histogram": [ 0.0305, 0.03101, 0.06916, 0.12178, 0.13563, 0.10654, 0.11358, 0.12213, 0.13682, 0.13285 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.33865632428895254 } }, "full": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 24.67496985524045, 21.032087077257938, 22.692432087747367, 23.683372359061945, 94.23669478510759, 31.434131814704017, 33.133003488492264, 40.47452862096952, 15.903015890741916, 22.332657060475753, 35.39193271526225, 19.898158756220926, 17.6374582721885, 31.909087820904386, 32.722838918907044, 23.140648393839744, 20.609018700579234, 37.50385527127562, 25.602217758132667, 24.926016067616466, 19.603478112129405, 31.911024234764522, 22.0556326547295, 19.860803612889608, 21.302496888693973, 15.367995255172149, 53.011654424941405, 16.16105744456499, 24.914313315151833, 15.98345162534304, 38.79010935425415, 39.044570205903014 ], "crps_clim": [ 21.565188759301577, 23.38563063557986, 19.097928412475547, 27.65831750898805, 115.86467554318806, 32.608713982744845, 35.74981363535668, 35.27522856142174, 17.037873658289875, 19.249766823627166, 29.95460921092147, 21.757280334006133, 22.589855526865747, 32.8860898565903, 21.287962454192346, 23.34276551652251, 20.5096382411715, 27.15997168831795, 25.49780817078038, 22.130467654701782, 19.335150240563912, 30.517713481749208, 23.826246347839884, 21.865464318236576, 19.893432351136823, 17.03329139891581, 64.14883327049633, 18.974050124817815, 25.33605920687928, 16.45512833366636, 38.480365999726736, 31.353009520945946 ], "rps": [ 0.48955161756449656, 0.4410264742307055, 0.5329601357004236, 0.48954519313433725, 0.32168354932948495, 0.4591795611574239, 0.4281608885512601, 0.5738053765998514, 0.39391301746250557, 0.4875577095077388, 0.6797282228026724, 0.35472808703733416, 0.39619768867723, 0.41638446271120866, 0.6847705786642627, 0.43732916670893557, 0.39348870893006155, 0.6718626507087032, 0.46734616909022403, 0.4720545275059615, 0.38769242742893884, 0.5010281787874099, 0.41957705430749953, 0.4149835136171433, 0.45442286912809376, 0.342845788250244, 0.46548917923705946, 0.33692005047376256, 0.4565370121960634, 0.31088108282207394, 0.4546283920834059, 0.6117657351194028 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4235467576215105, 0.47608889223006146, 0.42116084841535095, 0.52922569582888, 0.5521940842175864, 0.48422399901825147, 0.4817361166669598, 0.48212565828300324, 0.39092541948658205, 0.43695066648742936, 0.5455763971634705, 0.37045590341108353, 0.4938985727810239, 0.45690686490267524, 0.44941552111033356, 0.42409929339583347, 0.4060824902077587, 0.5026173106347752, 0.49052948788469664, 0.41131287431461633, 0.38663843087009825, 0.4959596204449516, 0.4216770610806586, 0.46451823268332443, 0.4095379456154036, 0.3675043388775151, 0.5502738168335921, 0.3945497358652498, 0.47350515274771016, 0.3484831583622997, 0.46150350689172287, 0.4645838963389065 ], "bias": [ -16.35393451616439, 26.541037283609505, 30.916032452965098, 39.434534691844064, -117.83597760403393, -20.69905914316599, -20.55310954151029, -48.037043101678805, 3.477000715843399, 21.272007117078488, 60.52605340418187, 15.187278473378097, 29.752347588538345, -36.9139118912802, 52.748389695020144, -18.968668133866547, 2.0970802932414654, 60.60363210770765, 28.260791549935366, 22.437484170282023, -10.746096539421274, -40.67931717566322, 17.460093049094972, 14.9594480550514, -10.663892032757262, 2.397270460776259, -69.55788735185827, 3.958083988691323, 14.474489607104916, 15.16534809675346, -44.78281184355082, -46.24041160035221 ], "mae": [ 33.34398644514008, 34.725045060030126, 35.7925910097052, 41.9259632410281, 118.74893020073928, 45.48808351832086, 45.99152501931215, 51.9344538146607, 24.040937014901168, 37.18814674102105, 60.603694716483155, 27.20858307521021, 32.23432527939258, 41.74277475686992, 53.24665967568007, 31.376585675054137, 28.573796058396724, 60.71249592271569, 42.53740505813206, 37.285662589265996, 24.305094883292664, 43.057943623474685, 34.30887185876203, 31.413054172492206, 28.30132075369062, 18.823905171606857, 71.26332707648268, 22.381078648607783, 37.258217410910746, 24.641003273041953, 52.98145305568663, 51.480107012118616 ], "mse": [ 2104.0659191273685, 1846.086514933979, 2067.0853650012064, 2283.9005206554457, 20323.246046822125, 3456.6651005973454, 3803.179435477057, 4475.728387829786, 936.8274513230866, 2195.4075885549896, 4493.241898056276, 1451.771167048163, 1471.5789441751283, 3084.675306108565, 3956.848652868913, 1804.7117498724663, 1260.3712195231467, 5227.034543187897, 2856.121365797203, 2363.6320321568546, 990.1174154082967, 2922.808371592666, 1870.626692327826, 1584.157868116843, 1364.879514940851, 560.9360701323985, 7317.065253230813, 1031.039396106615, 1986.1867189168333, 919.2181880010874, 4854.643510884134, 4370.885447459713 ], "var": [ 2207.7585478276096, 2776.668889626412, 2108.851425584769, 2212.8662024003456, 2930.9071318809983, 1864.9942093192435, 2462.4315527704703, 2375.6752919172163, 1817.4281521785642, 2611.046630409071, 2859.989706473609, 2589.250400578355, 1881.6581758942966, 2078.3565878935, 2298.20095675365, 2030.5715140430932, 2872.999737065083, 2568.5759595810982, 2227.252537256017, 2149.7015563714076, 2674.6091565366796, 1777.690988465504, 3864.379128305055, 1784.1974389171112, 2293.6075520205513, 2507.1593852323635, 4022.6897152942865, 2151.563434671671, 2035.9635083516575, 3094.169897868793, 2513.026977212951, 1822.7432243442433 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010999793381272823, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001359263910980737, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00013262524900524685, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002486046219875355, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010521552204851756, 0.0, 0.0, 2.6004950785342517e-05 ] }, "crps": 28.654522276351972, "crpss": 0.005297752047472515, "rps": 0.460876408422685, "rpss": -0.01936971541798127, "mean_bias_mm": -1.2613661773189166, "mean_mae_mm": 41.403656931632085, "mean_rmse_mm": 56.24576196707932, "spread_error_ratio": 0.8747693032191576, "zero_fraction": 0.00019237734028934808, "correlation": 0.10462452149950309, "pit_histogram": [ 0.16692, 0.06262, 0.08097, 0.09028, 0.0959, 0.09516, 0.0949, 0.09772, 0.09809, 0.11744 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.16871146574538043 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 18.04756536743387, 25.07406155895076, 17.203026539959865, 21.77641897675696, 120.68825471937112, 25.279037632851256, 19.736444007023778, 56.26039707042133, 19.532386082354115, 17.60502816229757, 36.9971416940772, 22.7138196977448, 22.72895065531029, 48.53497642493352, 33.20209975083466, 33.11485085308773, 18.421978444917592, 37.22661177150267, 24.088467027898673, 22.9860632875465, 18.113619617045263, 33.9194610752308, 25.68203018296076, 28.073106462634623, 26.089434529520737, 15.395150751385685, 64.011532260631, 22.25404842030839, 26.30102345118466, 15.886932884430419, 54.72915189782472, 21.955116860026443 ], "crps_clim": [ 20.62823078391462, 22.736075489400832, 17.20303065300768, 33.38592024446952, 148.69890061775828, 32.54163468771625, 20.813924730768786, 45.34936829224909, 21.110172436165435, 18.987977073987647, 35.64746457072699, 24.18698188499711, 30.543634191772295, 49.7010744586202, 22.788748659461, 33.02631501609522, 18.025620044910095, 33.698138045350596, 26.182976675526973, 24.697762649323387, 18.323363286191857, 30.274060611645748, 36.95358378488871, 31.968592033538773, 23.529333965483502, 18.554147550975507, 95.7655520497254, 24.80422585413712, 28.59879576238074, 16.421943505646766, 59.22616150944826, 19.837161306589184 ], "rps": [ 0.37532035218579796, 0.4252170243719866, 0.3501311639170285, 0.3151646414299885, 0.23196118739122892, 0.34229053842940504, 0.40418889101799005, 0.6761112033351749, 0.39526836578547536, 0.35658827158030765, 0.5451894084377997, 0.37817438713401336, 0.3401121389694243, 0.47348117129902667, 0.6508417067052644, 0.5030567984486308, 0.3288521091829606, 0.5361015263804279, 0.38411272186578627, 0.34202219953715146, 0.3419852230919956, 0.5498761053295249, 0.24781550623529155, 0.43860028997533473, 0.47128750343434195, 0.32007786092273294, 0.2443475703975626, 0.37667769044684296, 0.46163203438430067, 0.32681406198525353, 0.44233801063625294, 0.4291109933496703 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4353624306832978, 0.4191800777990544, 0.33092642730556393, 0.5345989952281157, 0.5549256946518838, 0.4853155529512196, 0.4290652521208975, 0.49985640326148617, 0.40930380959521595, 0.37730746282751154, 0.5561589821998123, 0.3968450353921786, 0.5352098508957999, 0.5197317160936026, 0.4622154279575823, 0.47965872542692495, 0.3452359656196985, 0.510985845909633, 0.4364472915440719, 0.37533126250969556, 0.33575420241270676, 0.47704841054116015, 0.48221255024125415, 0.5432080506356914, 0.4191937836801347, 0.36236938480584985, 0.5586414801407072, 0.4345261685934756, 0.5204520422939962, 0.3377365051099261, 0.5222952003256466, 0.37908107264058183 ], "bias": [ 6.213759929072968, 21.697877117902795, 13.445432283260645, 38.761943147467484, -145.41338938628465, 20.619621238039507, 20.985412490765974, -67.82338697510353, -5.869999940392821, -10.635878865045836, 64.20759250356481, 22.616598804574434, 44.64785305444535, -61.220006573473185, 55.97813627077239, -42.57963678403345, 18.05766800760901, 58.59633825746571, 3.688308167419137, -3.76847780775139, -1.4393555188734257, -41.97865347489754, 0.19894235100235536, 44.53837855421935, -23.330712674569707, 9.160609358907598, -81.25793002449522, -2.2264754970834786, 47.489960713369655, 17.316601523296843, -65.58141991338478, -16.669790768277952 ], "mae": [ 28.420493810456723, 35.706848208193996, 24.25499526131108, 39.997983258683284, 146.73500641876356, 40.53845874998149, 31.160584969373794, 72.61864664573959, 27.98581425896021, 21.90791323338079, 64.20759250356481, 32.24313348765691, 44.68658786881276, 63.58995788183702, 56.84189496614109, 43.576951920358894, 28.806264149521137, 58.87229140775632, 36.43675969038096, 30.825847461437583, 22.84258619753178, 45.89340239046312, 33.0058204056478, 46.78175123478756, 30.128955300185797, 20.30632912888485, 85.52075806268272, 30.847763725173877, 47.79607557914964, 23.195482358431203, 73.59028831043194, 29.828236165811095 ], "mse": [ 1210.304227133143, 2018.6308154068536, 955.5476901546509, 1991.8429196254922, 28721.162278863467, 2477.3958149052837, 1419.2404416722575, 7363.322295913668, 1320.498184983519, 842.7537728810515, 4508.063158814054, 1730.6493253953147, 2355.5945907840887, 5628.906306403224, 4111.038664009103, 3107.9149744109413, 1146.4606304545975, 4694.853664835081, 2079.043630667802, 1685.699300519165, 856.8078885652575, 3130.971319461135, 2065.775885474459, 2672.138386298438, 1473.6284166321368, 607.6650438129811, 10072.601806604129, 1827.0472609249634, 2648.0803241211624, 745.5241224689719, 7463.300926845359, 1498.0745658262622 ], "var": [ 2019.6577311936846, 4104.898692334969, 2537.856200317944, 2534.0897360165204, 2841.2407999978973, 1909.0448553450212, 2481.912464117082, 2480.8135672228013, 1840.7264980839552, 1822.7095979699086, 3164.5008502377023, 3714.7737865561157, 2792.4734415864514, 2440.616823196886, 3157.037113359004, 2973.0190948409445, 4029.459819334337, 2242.381065032668, 2319.8953563056107, 2929.0554281911886, 3202.555123613227, 1817.0824221139285, 6030.356249612221, 2199.398833542401, 3359.8832678003414, 2926.9537148791496, 6283.992117904927, 2598.753564022512, 2889.7667485333996, 3125.753025620908, 3430.42892323187, 2210.6650002881047 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 31.050880878701804, "crpss": 0.08354710934198406, "rps": 0.4063983955498117, "rpss": 0.10102406416718357, "mean_bias_mm": -1.924190013453467, "mean_mae_mm": 44.34848359410917, "mean_rmse_mm": 59.79928371092437, "spread_error_ratio": 0.908326651510548, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.3805210350260886, "pit_histogram": [ 0.13338, 0.06326, 0.09391, 0.10262, 0.10906, 0.10501, 0.09136, 0.09673, 0.10296, 0.10173 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.10949280217592815 } }, "distribution_full": { "ethiopia": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9887397913712702, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.022739092503952667 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 0.927810316685809, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.11994134908228159 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0102699199136098, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.2224747011310333 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9986730327665054, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.044970868179147534 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.014204265870607, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.0627643533420398 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": -0.003902436883610633 } }, "ondj_domain": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9811973431594059, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.026543905011968273 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 0.8870138624455025, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.15460675187302073 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0900279904931742, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.18529529356343252 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0006857346759472, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.03933336198763508 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 0.991626193133112, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.06503785426966419 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": 0.0 } } } } } }, "Nov": { "tag": "init09_Nov", "cells": 1484, "methods": { "raw": { "training": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 13.57184776706977, 21.888587044890592, 12.96635411923131, 13.675014772963703, 65.17097253350823, 9.331521257571032, 8.325111389687901, 17.618645345209405, 8.920206071281271, 9.889931477006606, 13.413500435304128, 26.825489328767535, 14.279650220703184, 20.051680409919232, 13.4397506541319, 31.139166689852303, 11.745470608190388, 14.778702110488755, 46.39130500652752, 14.33763007647926, 38.001090039101754, 11.641705446269436, 16.55495860162772, 12.191371360176447 ], "crps_clim": [ 12.317536543467577, 23.35796459817729, 12.697045070793552, 12.202051839195779, 80.47285365334993, 11.548375983365016, 12.678451972317543, 13.236171134630228, 9.77344956703739, 11.308094418769002, 10.495885058363076, 19.78743863254775, 11.56945900909618, 16.417052730597515, 12.717960992194332, 23.466029141135742, 10.74931047318028, 14.20169205564696, 38.727205395504946, 14.581796635287228, 32.862113763760696, 10.161605103260042, 18.582117729180727, 10.941519369614019 ], "rps": [ 0.562523103021109, 0.39442649327686835, 0.5263968609249743, 0.5170569217839174, 0.21901781059497294, 0.3771547304871006, 0.3273019901747649, 0.5756252251219748, 0.3821522372088158, 0.3673170341974721, 0.39330177261541843, 0.5904475285079612, 0.5852702147597248, 0.5076099737969488, 0.407296956054732, 0.7380795932238904, 0.497842665131262, 0.5272248051877313, 0.6032693652081076, 0.4034744256095831, 0.5504116278475454, 0.4184782602968427, 0.3565922713346019, 0.5154057311406935 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.503268882341884, 0.45696255193683133, 0.4925766326091148, 0.42240641708616883, 0.5420235822074022, 0.4714149775295732, 0.455605992500462, 0.4281783876000402, 0.46522974758146945, 0.45001555732494986, 0.3793571949725829, 0.4624359120204484, 0.4373678925332641, 0.4400525449202173, 0.42589693023153363, 0.47068205353537346, 0.4255615214855194, 0.4516170482691049, 0.49843663106201835, 0.41189108424683096, 0.4992305010159512, 0.3787617113337185, 0.4739156168036444, 0.434610826319066 ], "bias": [ 22.631264541103274, -13.377289042282433, 17.568817329034427, -0.31866386559470006, -72.74543762307546, 13.033328669359504, 10.581220445941698, -7.193575293349334, 7.070812757798524, 17.493989671322336, -5.407431430248444, -28.496899570798014, 3.08014245028939, -11.607418681469998, -2.4438074746360976, -26.564167694514346, 18.584413037621182, 23.618571777462076, -44.182501854300845, -1.9002367009809116, -40.836943477655005, -5.844733310949205, -6.8142851593341565, 4.994537516278681 ], "mae": [ 23.919097882775805, 30.05431302898269, 21.6283213825557, 19.560287648938463, 78.41936604511646, 16.483125552421406, 14.219335903321724, 23.235803042944916, 15.418209316785873, 19.030435016469422, 19.218600883634693, 33.94850943789606, 20.064483766031866, 28.13858298494782, 19.58187249956832, 38.75430101873668, 21.068091738072706, 24.73782726126347, 57.12763447074382, 20.28921717011806, 47.7941957607869, 16.091462759455982, 22.883845421492197, 17.869880389695748 ], "mse": [ 831.883040155863, 1913.0363944263004, 992.7157100936447, 726.3226480155444, 11753.2071001436, 524.9837632338949, 479.4117206431468, 982.070233727394, 466.4922438704395, 688.6441572104656, 885.4234579335549, 2439.3633462531857, 751.1413922770164, 1935.3971011821443, 707.3223301868678, 2651.733052037819, 786.5004598702892, 1016.4378961816882, 6618.007271850844, 952.2096923199944, 4235.2089842241585, 632.7515937739419, 1135.0559346276843, 608.8954900269754 ], "var": [ 905.4528911191383, 1899.0124818552117, 633.0362815615048, 584.4240303280654, 1407.3309983223871, 708.6970503907697, 659.8686498965461, 433.91470439912155, 636.9360209505121, 1112.5359561677187, 656.0841216596189, 806.8886519092387, 865.5144599209157, 939.1988078223928, 856.8168090536026, 616.3932778967586, 973.0739171322449, 887.8469891448271, 903.3272687916524, 977.9757819834991, 898.4862366404759, 692.8531998111011, 1216.8560691868006, 563.2684658167999 ], "zero": [ 0.004884159554093707, 0.0010175930007352936, 0.0016001577218703576, 0.005170341498615997, 0.0007173045085414388, 0.001143638131133162, 0.007873176427995511, 0.00039740620573866633, 0.006220199746195406, 0.0028214457240101016, 0.0038790906006246437, 0.004445395875961082, 0.0025396579427551485, 0.0028962592662863116, 0.0025708046952385966, 0.016759282247170625, 0.006372546200591536, 0.0018690417519513904, 0.0109969465574892, 0.0022729515204874783, 0.00423221826727345, 0.002480619440006088, 0.00021293985315423548, 0.0009044471857671569 ] }, "crps": 19.422902615248308, "crpss": -0.04787305747441084, "rps": 0.4726532332294589, "rpss": -0.04285703438997812, "mean_bias_mm": -5.378178874290744, "mean_mae_mm": 27.064033349281534, "mean_rmse_mm": 43.16355282250411, "spread_error_ratio": 0.6826250367374154, "zero_fraction": 0.003928234330153608, "correlation": 0.38291545803934596, "pit_histogram": [ 0.11848, 0.07938, 0.07653, 0.08542, 0.09217, 0.0994, 0.10253, 0.09559, 0.1006, 0.14989 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.14301346999479286 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 19.74896484158354, 32.39589321009467, 12.921429633968604, 9.891034312370586, 109.33590606582692, 10.300723935744585, 6.91347945269717, 13.024507327997735, 11.061092608414938, 9.044453300440004, 18.96718381601405, 47.222833222808724, 12.090329089673286, 34.030966094411376, 19.524752623218053, 25.38054389643017, 11.850283428100205, 20.74790907959305, 76.9704826535711, 12.264693608833158, 66.19106923879251, 15.112426824701299, 17.08812055011381, 11.837578390999575 ], "crps_clim": [ 18.52395116853421, 36.87672256900793, 18.170789562622396, 12.289909839909377, 126.90605491615098, 17.41989047035546, 17.706970523055745, 12.351304505468207, 13.796387526958524, 13.076262007562349, 14.560429422573055, 34.92849143385597, 13.963924627676032, 30.04724509587627, 16.82171605773241, 18.528924529932958, 12.89918086433115, 23.58960486668408, 67.53597007272384, 11.371976284610398, 55.90409404224628, 13.21381402559538, 23.974094843997456, 11.63096415863434 ], "rps": [ 0.6925479169067635, 0.37270142673320084, 0.401376430384746, 0.37431040525387416, 0.24321608097496952, 0.3222495926079144, 0.2386724922087334, 0.4174725545470393, 0.3970829234519956, 0.2511675640602344, 0.4073131349677648, 0.6993203431465159, 0.41334619363683006, 0.4847870690619415, 0.46343959575568633, 0.5759433684631854, 0.42784820611749225, 0.6098494099618946, 0.5620923124877529, 0.33984870363379804, 0.6225729543805065, 0.37255928790742565, 0.2485115214598733, 0.4738921849725892 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5345788969238703, 0.4969529963190181, 0.4649874789243917, 0.41318634740760435, 0.546313799621928, 0.4766642051904933, 0.47169819738486596, 0.3818166848915748, 0.4706484126244913, 0.36582560440255596, 0.35459642943677694, 0.5238068939647562, 0.42423555831428944, 0.4745855744751957, 0.4052259209726985, 0.43061974360983973, 0.4027224211940853, 0.5463137996219276, 0.5329121077567514, 0.33515957321525397, 0.5425588509144538, 0.35778764325037954, 0.505082202846066, 0.40346036499799176 ], "bias": [ 33.0940872071752, -37.11750894182345, 16.902155430168147, 1.325228091317085, -129.11498039485608, 13.461063051513865, 8.869251682520115, -1.8155951540454105, 4.102106384168472, 12.443726202627142, -20.07993894036916, -58.216497888361964, 4.214229659185977, -36.7154803095935, -21.078187701346046, -24.98509872685024, 19.664466414720643, 35.063857217121466, -91.10506211225322, 8.202085883832726, -80.36367126653992, -12.62137054613865, -11.297502423272482, 2.796177296388754 ], "mae": [ 33.36910846005948, 41.68079960832784, 22.17077716797972, 15.453316811380498, 129.1361078710847, 18.582886163748054, 12.573464827172117, 18.665116252630725, 18.88148722234608, 15.64975889062913, 25.05104741000345, 58.297517929559426, 19.685042153151755, 44.58220638200216, 24.837708067761945, 33.61421280169685, 21.720583791830975, 35.063857217121466, 91.39882761569407, 18.62376786958009, 80.37485446314255, 19.872122366714592, 22.36054912207936, 18.29842784621704 ], "mse": [ 1288.0036729178983, 3155.5654465283797, 742.4812176393137, 358.0619844116626, 21671.16122183152, 457.8710464370058, 253.9132326325452, 665.0562820333921, 547.7246276729852, 378.0321062744159, 1344.9346602144835, 4864.698727269122, 527.1733657500015, 3764.4362870611603, 1080.7593938380382, 2508.881955957107, 606.7040091974131, 1492.276933928881, 13086.315252293676, 572.8257273084621, 8197.111913659472, 812.060353019521, 1110.5774873688993, 489.50361116652095 ], "var": [ 964.9578733712015, 1965.4772616594178, 675.0999042646696, 584.9741105033836, 1749.6269938344005, 714.0898776686527, 759.0525176779726, 439.31252722840856, 689.3477566923568, 1170.106919237388, 640.7483536483276, 814.7020444094937, 741.1768309190151, 1161.387100145809, 888.4566076362504, 776.4234058275385, 1123.325474661767, 847.1215890279913, 1036.89853039221, 1055.0495200753808, 1007.3207938299912, 854.203287436805, 1788.8744011599795, 573.5978128607973 ], "zero": [ 0.0019410524324200503, 0.0008308702021995864, 0.0, 0.007969702564675425, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002492517698429611, 0.0, 0.0032565482689731404, 0.0, 0.0031895307268770857, 0.0, 0.002492517698429611, 0.0, 0.0038088753871645094, 0.01247595470706571, 0.001110182230220464, 0.0, 0.006865223617052536, 0.0, 0.006168171775452067, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 25.996527383599965, "crpss": 0.01913572229533067, "rps": 0.4338384030451137, "rpss": 0.04139466119194157, "mean_bias_mm": -15.182185828529606, "mean_mae_mm": 34.997647846329755, "mean_rmse_mm": 53.996963848447024, "spread_error_ratio": 0.5735750576878554, "zero_fraction": 0.0021917144712066583, "correlation": 0.4789344756300414, "pit_histogram": [ 0.15246, 0.08504, 0.06729, 0.0695, 0.07872, 0.07499, 0.07783, 0.08708, 0.10159, 0.2055 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.31910974396295855 } }, "operational": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 12.659065894170773, 17.796917246147657, 37.82643756291197, 9.549056030238567, 9.043153826370997, 11.749986183154817, 60.70927483444711, 19.510022011423764 ], "crps_clim": [ 9.895516071070114, 14.17903530722128, 38.54879256346864, 8.382690795432643, 12.100478712529222, 9.990734718607943, 72.45749800359884, 14.992025314000559 ], "rps": [ 0.4332196144132522, 0.609724851650143, 0.4936472258099425, 0.39590492373954855, 0.39803027572021304, 0.45991696834026136, 0.3205362894231439, 0.6088803004148949 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.39574475776394596, 0.4437047305666722, 0.546311199561453, 0.36237075360897236, 0.43798495130070614, 0.3932407178861523, 0.5285945268864339, 0.42293901304422793 ], "bias": [ -3.4354700579920197, -13.135860212065484, -45.02816417284594, 4.479443445774338, 4.797565053015299, 11.76085132929154, -70.16021579526728, -20.37881600611696 ], "mae": [ 18.72061409148236, 22.61174014574219, 47.17058889157587, 14.329141016934903, 14.309804980210357, 18.591174141818886, 73.70200459440873, 24.307335847706792 ], "mse": [ 659.2624504986333, 1031.235742113116, 3675.4916865164573, 436.1207104060732, 401.8706680124643, 647.6890895442236, 9909.74219742797, 1404.6007180202905 ], "var": [ 816.9092782364369, 593.0157362888879, 1147.9100550560795, 723.5448564622043, 544.7380975895244, 907.6795344694679, 1253.2799570310517, 540.4659488913552 ], "zero": [ 0.0025820438436924375, 0.00879042198339892, 0.0022711286105919636, 0.0050707605093021635, 0.012561588332239602, 0.008183188880008348, 0.0015120588290740518, 0.011184805492395292 ] }, "crps": 22.355489198608208, "crpss": 0.009431671821372278, "rps": 0.464982556188925, "rpss": -0.05351901760529776, "mean_bias_mm": -16.387583302025813, "mean_mae_mm": 29.21780046373501, "mean_rmse_mm": 47.65240453342731, "spread_error_ratio": 0.5994391070954118, "zero_fraction": 0.006519499560087847, "correlation": 0.49998609782760206, "pit_histogram": [ 0.04534, 0.05463, 0.05919, 0.07168, 0.08595, 0.09676, 0.10763, 0.11677, 0.12282, 0.23924 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.37292574582216165 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 19.627280885544792, 9.525816076247102, 45.4405145350675, 10.707806076524697, 8.967403884489027, 12.565334579502856, 105.4768007554348, 20.23781980832028 ], "crps_clim": [ 16.023613765163336, 12.042589782487557, 48.89791233340558, 12.005332284732548, 16.60873516709748, 15.463955391266797, 122.93071411734311, 15.359489400606916 ], "rps": [ 0.4717602714081192, 0.3001181180169749, 0.3832470387805608, 0.3350254208891474, 0.3695981530258564, 0.4199777198655916, 0.22093860061652063, 0.4789345330920454 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4012574985052145, 0.3824738866553415, 0.5455702609428927, 0.3608387586327424, 0.5032563034561837, 0.45825636877918047, 0.5532043323522959, 0.38836007080680135 ], "bias": [ -21.27283475276108, 3.238201278066885, -57.155557299307915, 6.113770933696104, 14.5406046882329, 15.984521657353877, -125.26435299929638, -20.143297334038856 ], "mae": [ 25.199999318934914, 14.148513867138153, 58.73947573251634, 15.593663651062135, 16.641401964289926, 21.2742376120455, 125.48628035568224, 26.02907607790372 ], "mse": [ 1038.4446114791501, 351.57055761940046, 4995.3694431209815, 403.1326801176752, 351.5484075901553, 621.1664586850808, 19595.817689376316, 1603.8436694604839 ], "var": [ 918.6804910436138, 690.2937626412025, 1649.4271132352756, 850.2423648568512, 643.8009057669832, 927.3004622013574, 1628.352930031576, 651.961535248817 ], "zero": [ 0.0007467408980360028, 0.005675200282129735, 0.00040728931480371887, 0.0007128220322502846, 0.00958909794438938, 0.002920623912729915, 0.0, 0.009181962400556654 ] }, "crps": 29.068597075141383, "crpss": 0.10327892544913697, "rps": 0.3724499819618521, "rpss": 0.17077107851916729, "mean_bias_mm": -22.994867978506807, "mean_mae_mm": 37.889081072446615, "mean_rmse_mm": 60.16736399146264, "spread_error_ratio": 0.5242665877230624, "zero_fraction": 0.0036542170981119617, "correlation": 0.8694938991570749, "pit_histogram": [ 0.07052, 0.07303, 0.07375, 0.08346, 0.08357, 0.09112, 0.08688, 0.0938, 0.10309, 0.24079 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.28775142810696097 } }, "full": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 13.57184776706977, 21.888587044890592, 12.96635411923131, 13.675014772963703, 65.17097253350823, 9.331521257571032, 8.325111389687901, 17.618645345209405, 8.920206071281271, 9.889931477006606, 13.413500435304128, 26.825489328767535, 14.279650220703184, 20.051680409919232, 13.4397506541319, 31.139166689852303, 11.745470608190388, 14.778702110488755, 46.39130500652752, 14.33763007647926, 38.001090039101754, 11.641705446269436, 16.55495860162772, 12.191371360176447, 12.659065894170773, 17.796917246147657, 37.82643756291197, 9.549056030238567, 9.043153826370997, 11.749986183154817, 60.70927483444711, 19.510022011423764 ], "crps_clim": [ 12.783782020353424, 22.511377726630435, 13.486233432588588, 12.69944443375219, 76.94122015896143, 12.20106868173247, 13.309810711893718, 13.382499762169186, 10.510860190270792, 11.948508158258385, 10.507324363236147, 19.219499581536, 12.15624842534919, 16.33110258238101, 12.70802225555305, 23.51737823123135, 11.65595466198018, 14.642515311603015, 37.809037033490284, 13.847526321731513, 31.179523394808456, 10.189531034239177, 17.927950590511536, 11.88010054552358, 10.658915041984727, 14.411604379011287, 38.49497020875638, 9.149304055972436, 12.957927427879538, 10.730182113419154, 72.85260912174846, 14.681246973704665 ], "rps": [ 0.5584477770468966, 0.4068394102033416, 0.5171541895176521, 0.5128523201646317, 0.24472006597250262, 0.37933969480705143, 0.32129670375248265, 0.5921823887755027, 0.3681704342565054, 0.3606609368766596, 0.3979662030169493, 0.608014788735808, 0.5818396448183679, 0.5072461537157583, 0.41006575671209666, 0.7462033209667841, 0.48884028568530274, 0.5267926229033426, 0.623748085130053, 0.41547888222139834, 0.5755101019212696, 0.4203710913837993, 0.37180759116352535, 0.4978804206894721, 0.4318921660453306, 0.6167383159888479, 0.4934197324457776, 0.3826968179728475, 0.3786659650835106, 0.44816278818979643, 0.3237090964750779, 0.6258234380389515 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5099729077980537, 0.45223457520613386, 0.5042070796721, 0.4223319286224781, 0.5541349166685237, 0.4891341241458317, 0.46260551253834703, 0.41790847293771854, 0.47376507250073746, 0.44625492156786695, 0.3665742104158703, 0.46239929772210925, 0.44039805540566207, 0.4473385695884163, 0.41904326359193766, 0.4782106643198007, 0.43099085878539034, 0.4595141391239318, 0.5079472946014302, 0.4035582725551801, 0.49665385808099777, 0.3644779560242052, 0.4652165601075734, 0.42884001042431774, 0.4110384555452049, 0.43924247151695794, 0.5531184205365902, 0.36375626291307794, 0.4448249078788689, 0.3952033064964951, 0.5357304983934386, 0.4226854013145511 ], "bias": [ 22.631264541103274, -13.377289042282433, 17.568817329034427, -0.31866386559470006, -72.74543762307546, 13.033328669359504, 10.581220445941698, -7.193575293349334, 7.070812757798524, 17.493989671322336, -5.407431430248444, -28.496899570798014, 3.08014245028939, -11.607418681469998, -2.4438074746360976, -26.564167694514346, 18.584413037621182, 23.618571777462076, -44.182501854300845, -1.9002367009809116, -40.836943477655005, -5.844733310949205, -6.8142851593341565, 4.994537516278681, -3.4354700579920197, -13.135860212065484, -45.02816417284594, 4.479443445774338, 4.797565053015299, 11.76085132929154, -70.16021579526728, -20.37881600611696 ], "mae": [ 23.919097882775805, 30.05431302898269, 21.6283213825557, 19.560287648938463, 78.41936604511646, 16.483125552421406, 14.219335903321724, 23.235803042944916, 15.418209316785873, 19.030435016469422, 19.218600883634693, 33.94850943789606, 20.064483766031866, 28.13858298494782, 19.58187249956832, 38.75430101873668, 21.068091738072706, 24.73782726126347, 57.12763447074382, 20.28921717011806, 47.7941957607869, 16.091462759455982, 22.883845421492197, 17.869880389695748, 18.72061409148236, 22.61174014574219, 47.17058889157587, 14.329141016934903, 14.309804980210357, 18.591174141818886, 73.70200459440873, 24.307335847706792 ], "mse": [ 831.883040155863, 1913.0363944263004, 992.7157100936447, 726.3226480155444, 11753.2071001436, 524.9837632338949, 479.4117206431468, 982.070233727394, 466.4922438704395, 688.6441572104656, 885.4234579335549, 2439.3633462531857, 751.1413922770164, 1935.3971011821443, 707.3223301868678, 2651.733052037819, 786.5004598702892, 1016.4378961816882, 6618.007271850844, 952.2096923199944, 4235.2089842241585, 632.7515937739419, 1135.0559346276843, 608.8954900269754, 659.2624504986333, 1031.235742113116, 3675.4916865164573, 436.1207104060732, 401.8706680124643, 647.6890895442236, 9909.74219742797, 1404.6007180202905 ], "var": [ 905.4528911191383, 1899.0124818552117, 633.0362815615048, 584.4240303280654, 1407.3309983223871, 708.6970503907697, 659.8686498965461, 433.91470439912155, 636.9360209505121, 1112.5359561677187, 656.0841216596189, 806.8886519092387, 865.5144599209157, 939.1988078223928, 856.8168090536026, 616.3932778967586, 973.0739171322449, 887.8469891448271, 903.3272687916524, 977.9757819834991, 898.4862366404759, 692.8531998111011, 1216.8560691868006, 563.2684658167999, 816.9092782364369, 593.0157362888879, 1147.9100550560795, 723.5448564622043, 544.7380975895244, 907.6795344694679, 1253.2799570310517, 540.4659488913552 ], "zero": [ 0.004884159554093707, 0.0010175930007352936, 0.0016001577218703576, 0.005170341498615997, 0.0007173045085414388, 0.001143638131133162, 0.007873176427995511, 0.00039740620573866633, 0.006220199746195406, 0.0028214457240101016, 0.0038790906006246437, 0.004445395875961082, 0.0025396579427551485, 0.0028962592662863116, 0.0025708046952385966, 0.016759282247170625, 0.006372546200591536, 0.0018690417519513904, 0.0109969465574892, 0.0022729515204874783, 0.00423221826727345, 0.002480619440006088, 0.00021293985315423548, 0.0009044471857671569, 0.0025820438436924375, 0.00879042198339892, 0.0022711286105919636, 0.0050707605093021635, 0.012561588332239602, 0.008183188880008348, 0.0015120588290740518, 0.011184805492395292 ] }, "crps": 20.15604926108828, "crpss": -0.028233332558631252, "rps": 0.4729542872086654, "rpss": -0.04597488341682765, "mean_bias_mm": -8.130529981224512, "mean_mae_mm": 27.602475127894902, "mean_rmse_mm": 44.32840098232935, "spread_error_ratio": 0.6596711201502229, "zero_fraction": 0.004576050637637167, "correlation": 0.39175031628357027, "pit_histogram": [ 0.1002, 0.07319, 0.0722, 0.08199, 0.09061, 0.09874, 0.10381, 0.10088, 0.10616, 0.17223 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.16654564646164316 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 19.74896484158354, 32.39589321009467, 12.921429633968604, 9.891034312370586, 109.33590606582692, 10.300723935744585, 6.91347945269717, 13.024507327997735, 11.061092608414938, 9.044453300440004, 18.96718381601405, 47.222833222808724, 12.090329089673286, 34.030966094411376, 19.524752623218053, 25.38054389643017, 11.850283428100205, 20.74790907959305, 76.9704826535711, 12.264693608833158, 66.19106923879251, 15.112426824701299, 17.08812055011381, 11.837578390999575, 19.627280885544792, 9.525816076247102, 45.4405145350675, 10.707806076524697, 8.967403884489027, 12.565334579502856, 105.4768007554348, 20.23781980832028 ], "crps_clim": [ 18.971560801065813, 35.6367147291537, 18.636916636476265, 13.008245857985397, 122.09582939281907, 17.78179646878491, 17.998112084481825, 13.076782675945864, 14.529083489713967, 13.24418302159305, 14.803193391112085, 34.07821828870073, 14.676722636955915, 29.418403592206143, 16.790159921611743, 19.251560181834897, 13.33628914107295, 23.960236587257803, 65.78672153414695, 11.854513425492197, 53.7131677313048, 13.396064979901809, 23.74020434353359, 12.389359531750223, 16.618238808520573, 13.04598803914388, 49.69954751558125, 12.770847456632547, 18.242786444806796, 16.533666942942173, 125.40466313928738, 15.824528080373357 ], "rps": [ 0.6903726665231414, 0.3889926762211231, 0.4133981070845022, 0.3741815452991673, 0.2635922045401446, 0.34955879933968564, 0.24055693351370758, 0.42399960599690417, 0.38514545351782387, 0.2571767962219312, 0.40744282742891336, 0.7299998775095073, 0.4102151481770692, 0.5056975816238672, 0.46323031121450287, 0.5734113638283928, 0.4416628287265466, 0.6073710660581986, 0.5864050749374039, 0.3351078072347902, 0.6542714138107681, 0.3676849797668348, 0.2710610228587908, 0.45523767029815715, 0.46857556301616465, 0.2969725024863632, 0.3556121379929459, 0.33020568636123676, 0.3549254087743646, 0.39181195011388326, 0.19848276671520237, 0.4848602486058937 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.546221849426887, 0.5006209898385597, 0.47463997727575263, 0.41815000367394756, 0.5629552549427683, 0.49498688948174796, 0.477643485597547, 0.3820838914918218, 0.4675924281943521, 0.34140859723145817, 0.32837245319421293, 0.5374315918996531, 0.42791161191971255, 0.478997744827492, 0.3859727031231156, 0.43079003405987637, 0.4091224667534369, 0.5629552549427682, 0.5473749777298041, 0.31762780372493987, 0.5567250638845919, 0.3314668314118201, 0.5013535927665776, 0.3938931012781259, 0.4005237610004716, 0.37374789498522504, 0.5536094138716743, 0.347079043610374, 0.5202270950400264, 0.4553182914080023, 0.5617070387526095, 0.38432907468585364 ], "bias": [ 33.0940872071752, -37.11750894182345, 16.902155430168147, 1.325228091317085, -129.11498039485608, 13.461063051513865, 8.869251682520115, -1.8155951540454105, 4.102106384168472, 12.443726202627142, -20.07993894036916, -58.216497888361964, 4.214229659185977, -36.7154803095935, -21.078187701346046, -24.98509872685024, 19.664466414720643, 35.063857217121466, -91.10506211225322, 8.202085883832726, -80.36367126653992, -12.62137054613865, -11.297502423272482, 2.796177296388754, -21.27283475276108, 3.238201278066885, -57.155557299307915, 6.113770933696104, 14.5406046882329, 15.984521657353877, -125.26435299929638, -20.143297334038856 ], "mae": [ 33.36910846005948, 41.68079960832784, 22.17077716797972, 15.453316811380498, 129.1361078710847, 18.582886163748054, 12.573464827172117, 18.665116252630725, 18.88148722234608, 15.64975889062913, 25.05104741000345, 58.297517929559426, 19.685042153151755, 44.58220638200216, 24.837708067761945, 33.61421280169685, 21.720583791830975, 35.063857217121466, 91.39882761569407, 18.62376786958009, 80.37485446314255, 19.872122366714592, 22.36054912207936, 18.29842784621704, 25.199999318934914, 14.148513867138153, 58.73947573251634, 15.593663651062135, 16.641401964289926, 21.2742376120455, 125.48628035568224, 26.02907607790372 ], "mse": [ 1288.0036729178983, 3155.5654465283797, 742.4812176393137, 358.0619844116626, 21671.16122183152, 457.8710464370058, 253.9132326325452, 665.0562820333921, 547.7246276729852, 378.0321062744159, 1344.9346602144835, 4864.698727269122, 527.1733657500015, 3764.4362870611603, 1080.7593938380382, 2508.881955957107, 606.7040091974131, 1492.276933928881, 13086.315252293676, 572.8257273084621, 8197.111913659472, 812.060353019521, 1110.5774873688993, 489.50361116652095, 1038.4446114791501, 351.57055761940046, 4995.3694431209815, 403.1326801176752, 351.5484075901553, 621.1664586850808, 19595.817689376316, 1603.8436694604839 ], "var": [ 964.9578733712015, 1965.4772616594178, 675.0999042646696, 584.9741105033836, 1749.6269938344005, 714.0898776686527, 759.0525176779726, 439.31252722840856, 689.3477566923568, 1170.106919237388, 640.7483536483276, 814.7020444094937, 741.1768309190151, 1161.387100145809, 888.4566076362504, 776.4234058275385, 1123.325474661767, 847.1215890279913, 1036.89853039221, 1055.0495200753808, 1007.3207938299912, 854.203287436805, 1788.8744011599795, 573.5978128607973, 918.6804910436138, 690.2937626412025, 1649.4271132352756, 850.2423648568512, 643.8009057669832, 927.3004622013574, 1628.352930031576, 651.961535248817 ], "zero": [ 0.0019410524324200503, 0.0008308702021995864, 0.0, 0.007969702564675425, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002492517698429611, 0.0, 0.0032565482689731404, 0.0, 0.0031895307268770857, 0.0, 0.002492517698429611, 0.0, 0.0038088753871645094, 0.01247595470706571, 0.001110182230220464, 0.0, 0.006865223617052536, 0.0, 0.006168171775452067, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007467408980360028, 0.005675200282129735, 0.00040728931480371887, 0.0007128220322502846, 0.00958909794438938, 0.002920623912729915, 0.0, 0.009181962400556654 ] }, "crps": 26.76454480648532, "crpss": 0.048703961194392575, "rps": 0.42116312580618526, "rpss": 0.06879231523609552, "mean_bias_mm": -17.135356366023906, "mean_mae_mm": 35.72050615285897, "mean_rmse_mm": 55.603794844040635, "spread_error_ratio": 0.5595914049890514, "zero_fraction": 0.002557340127932984, "correlation": 0.6155857228362169, "pit_histogram": [ 0.13198, 0.08204, 0.06891, 0.07299, 0.07993, 0.07903, 0.08009, 0.08876, 0.10196, 0.21432 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.2965310681568547 } }, "distribution_full": { "ethiopia": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 0.7880217000756364, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.3815084669192572 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 0.7741034269990387, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.40135173457147016 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.5200106272093707, "area_mean_abs_log": 1.448219033258484 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9079200163142367, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.5257479216716934 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 0.8104709850845475, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.36481279988511695 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0006127450980392157, "area_mean": -0.002581280319888255 } }, "ondj_domain": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 0.7231580677752052, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.34234157564519224 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 0.5749343203197048, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.5506552565865613 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.8759490345453806, "area_mean_abs_log": 1.0308965973221755 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9530322016513507, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.3470438426697571 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 0.6620511452566433, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.4057615063052531 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": -0.013254759593673773 } } } }, "ls": { "training": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 19.24309848693241, 18.77817750700437, 12.821936111613956, 11.108119653162985, 54.590278688696635, 9.326967168349299, 7.647590646111288, 13.937200104676268, 7.015875979751617, 12.336908638802543, 10.07502045310143, 21.426138800331707, 11.314599023445481, 14.579850400618676, 12.937915017632216, 25.83447028295528, 14.356024306162013, 19.487246274150603, 36.00736593557505, 15.959984778986923, 31.980055177997652, 9.933173218607795, 13.053823605083496, 10.86668223822604 ], "crps_clim": [ 12.317536543467577, 23.35796459817729, 12.697045070793552, 12.202051839195779, 80.47285365334993, 11.548375983365016, 12.678451972317543, 13.236171134630228, 9.77344956703739, 11.308094418769002, 10.495885058363076, 19.78743863254775, 11.56945900909618, 16.417052730597515, 12.717960992194332, 23.466029141135742, 10.74931047318028, 14.20169205564696, 38.727205395504946, 14.581796635287228, 32.862113763760696, 10.161605103260042, 18.582117729180727, 10.941519369614019 ], "rps": [ 0.7057603752334681, 0.34030663621500695, 0.5325988655013768, 0.45230400220495776, 0.16904893939457202, 0.3847085139174563, 0.32071866690680206, 0.4954635379802433, 0.34809648291233186, 0.4429636890074379, 0.3379024854988823, 0.4891994072637932, 0.48687553431658664, 0.4004966812496868, 0.4029631850789358, 0.6253247728916675, 0.5258837717487505, 0.6251820285020959, 0.4541088547043785, 0.42523566274234453, 0.442827026023222, 0.36105672116075277, 0.26174970245978874, 0.4697738264766888 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.503268882341884, 0.45696255193683133, 0.4925766326091148, 0.42240641708616883, 0.5420235822074022, 0.4714149775295732, 0.455605992500462, 0.4281783876000402, 0.46522974758146945, 0.45001555732494986, 0.3793571949725829, 0.4624359120204484, 0.4373678925332641, 0.4400525449202173, 0.42589693023153363, 0.47068205353537346, 0.4255615214855194, 0.4516170482691049, 0.49843663106201835, 0.41189108424683096, 0.4992305010159512, 0.3787617113337185, 0.4739156168036444, 0.434610826319066 ], "bias": [ 31.256957541563775, -6.31751806721623, 21.987840624576123, 3.7413591121608656, -66.30490447409811, 17.16191986630869, 13.556402302265166, -3.943815789811444, 10.540520282414544, 24.35509639180066, -1.7034014032974083, -25.047503908509945, 7.302188336480112, -6.004609137018146, 1.8426541795094156, -23.23897230214802, 26.85930604780213, 30.995099481018087, -40.306644522653144, 4.490179160695681, -36.735411244076886, -0.441598645057088, 3.77347963813893, 10.825940847867884 ], "mae": [ 33.737648607507595, 25.775471000932992, 23.518806747458786, 16.094210768417224, 69.29026440164141, 18.142225244318052, 15.398748323595902, 18.91546473124119, 13.264123459143939, 25.593922071852177, 14.952351931688401, 27.744949914257862, 16.000886586810065, 20.743891187067558, 19.496062216558038, 32.496807121065835, 27.115004667598615, 32.662973309608155, 46.54881632561964, 23.965419560922644, 41.7255643127507, 13.484725145990803, 18.386171059772067, 16.941051644494664 ], "mse": [ 1744.2360240677294, 1278.9374307879443, 918.6442315126915, 440.7468639994605, 8465.709165840493, 556.515665498526, 464.8708372464749, 594.4966890873426, 279.4611860774612, 1107.6726285216894, 467.6687624937041, 1618.2386341930414, 433.1952537387518, 1008.4860033646813, 653.949557730315, 1890.480221185574, 1200.0401922828667, 2061.0458799881344, 4636.2856874955205, 1163.2204641526314, 3185.2224576390317, 420.05579798738734, 604.4254955810515, 488.3030429391112 ], "var": [ 1459.3936125774767, 2870.370795640959, 962.3376267785335, 865.8239003351185, 1981.6151882342344, 1082.0158298222864, 1033.2882518253095, 630.6541973857119, 954.7145390545137, 1712.8433816929146, 952.7423990750091, 1068.2103020896893, 1332.9627603138158, 1466.5543743725736, 1248.089008997807, 966.8733241372013, 1589.8481882859303, 1401.5189763450014, 1333.6222836557383, 1470.2142185547048, 1300.6121612982047, 1149.598629361089, 2123.1714095598572, 894.0766037515612 ], "zero": [ 0.004884159554093707, 0.0010175930007352936, 0.0016001577218703576, 0.005170341498615997, 0.0007173045085414388, 0.001143638131133162, 0.007873176427995511, 0.00039740620573866633, 0.006220199746195406, 0.0028214457240101016, 0.0038790906006246437, 0.004445395875961082, 0.0025396579427551485, 0.0028962592662863116, 0.0025708046952385966, 0.016759282247170625, 0.006372546200591536, 0.0018690417519513904, 0.0109969465574892, 0.0022729515204874783, 0.00423221826727345, 0.002480619440006088, 0.00021293985315423548, 0.0009044471857671569 ] }, "crps": 17.275770937415654, "crpss": 0.06796552137344491, "rps": 0.4375228903913011, "rpss": 0.03465417800348247, "mean_bias_mm": -0.05647648672018176, "mean_mae_mm": 25.499815014179763, "mean_rmse_mm": 38.55834765510771, "spread_error_ratio": 0.9447970670956317, "zero_fraction": 0.003928234330153608, "correlation": 0.23615061050412114, "pit_histogram": [ 0.11491, 0.08104, 0.0839, 0.10386, 0.11377, 0.11528, 0.10358, 0.08358, 0.0875, 0.1126 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.12798559810203064 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 32.183565339460486, 28.38537106495604, 17.89113084626065, 10.199953809158142, 88.6302319941034, 13.836066650501978, 8.656296812837452, 11.289438409596007, 10.326062035507736, 15.23170663493319, 13.45737932537903, 36.129331739884975, 11.629467059220252, 25.10288153885897, 16.58352332295992, 18.243968777637388, 20.052254797378517, 33.50059551494863, 61.70070839204964, 16.294411767598703, 53.13132300530667, 11.742415977193339, 15.370058975283625, 12.156048563552275 ], "crps_clim": [ 18.52395116853421, 36.87672256900793, 18.170789562622396, 12.289909839909377, 126.90605491615098, 17.41989047035546, 17.706970523055745, 12.351304505468207, 13.796387526958524, 13.076262007562349, 14.560429422573055, 34.92849143385597, 13.963924627676032, 30.04724509587627, 16.82171605773241, 18.528924529932958, 12.89918086433115, 23.58960486668408, 67.53597007272384, 11.371976284610398, 55.90409404224628, 13.21381402559538, 23.974094843997456, 11.63096415863434 ], "rps": [ 0.9647143965833932, 0.28669744805652814, 0.5064508023632548, 0.40695022671639264, 0.11752564076159654, 0.41378766769893344, 0.28793872416900834, 0.3855352154831054, 0.40002327900695017, 0.38999543311427803, 0.29848556965875933, 0.4984704549217331, 0.3874925741343767, 0.3376218615981745, 0.3808926764425428, 0.45291772948578646, 0.5893431514262971, 0.864133295642562, 0.38226076449168284, 0.39038430323703566, 0.3944427270898356, 0.2847174772425794, 0.15071272518423154, 0.4779248066733 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5345788969238703, 0.4969529963190181, 0.4649874789243917, 0.41318634740760435, 0.546313799621928, 0.4766642051904933, 0.47169819738486596, 0.3818166848915748, 0.4706484126244913, 0.36582560440255596, 0.35459642943677694, 0.5238068939647562, 0.42423555831428944, 0.4745855744751957, 0.4052259209726985, 0.43061974360983973, 0.4027224211940853, 0.5463137996219276, 0.5329121077567514, 0.33515957321525397, 0.5425588509144538, 0.35778764325037954, 0.505082202846066, 0.40346036499799176 ], "bias": [ 53.5397505084618, -16.950975885605203, 31.0069176003248, 13.187916261031317, -112.08793921070637, 26.244168760257548, 19.154601720600105, 10.324728760239548, 15.46176137909761, 30.09193734837049, -8.023950226447688, -46.82432767300117, 16.78547230820782, -21.109689584872545, -8.64298352944391, -13.161358042764428, 38.52453795848751, 54.62177707565069, -78.52652039899493, 27.639641292358633, -68.1379618894943, 2.0189630530583886, 15.166440794832127, 16.907729767904566 ], "mae": [ 53.5397505084618, 37.31970402606111, 32.88023516304922, 17.184532956127704, 112.10804158387462, 26.930435283485924, 19.874702772889158, 18.342357014723184, 19.78731552261523, 30.625441054964895, 18.06155325022079, 47.28196765857597, 20.178604944871733, 33.07249738949265, 21.049210286656272, 25.962731570222633, 38.52453795848751, 54.62177707565069, 78.93901688128548, 28.50900112903818, 68.2050968814629, 15.879495976738152, 21.471174980296887, 20.753888912384266 ], "mse": [ 3260.8237857757026, 2216.5582460882983, 1474.762210763177, 402.5974793378222, 15307.371259527885, 913.5015690010098, 575.0819660216748, 469.638807255845, 495.0350245502711, 1377.3489748000395, 690.1134876688164, 3139.6653663139364, 555.188421388887, 2080.1630161263165, 729.5760523097686, 1381.6174674716463, 1782.6394719392763, 4027.4042043443064, 9685.629992498885, 1245.5864965611413, 5925.746760015788, 431.94534263113286, 722.8372259518889, 552.8682153204967 ], "var": [ 2065.416053527503, 3938.759758404297, 1475.2799088242327, 1147.8917472048436, 2841.3242931412733, 1456.5490637142289, 1609.8537208756125, 888.8804054346173, 1384.0600094442527, 2379.1329765640567, 1249.0215353638075, 1479.4185958997439, 1512.0989036684653, 2224.6054362720374, 1698.5552840858616, 1592.5344797644275, 2331.22352913303, 1924.4656888262903, 1952.7374337559738, 2221.5538020712784, 1783.2234855803192, 1782.1894543715987, 3817.374633054115, 1134.165757877801 ], "zero": [ 0.0019410524324200503, 0.0008308702021995864, 0.0, 0.007969702564675425, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002492517698429611, 0.0, 0.0032565482689731404, 0.0, 0.0031895307268770857, 0.0, 0.002492517698429611, 0.0, 0.0038088753871645094, 0.01247595470706571, 0.001110182230220464, 0.0, 0.006865223617052536, 0.0, 0.006168171775452067, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 24.238508014773625, "crpss": 0.08546682771376046, "rps": 0.4187257896325974, "rpss": 0.0747873525694126, "mean_bias_mm": -0.11622341051864875, "mean_mae_mm": 35.879294615901536, "mean_rmse_mm": 49.76766890749456, "spread_error_ratio": 0.8786331888835086, "zero_fraction": 0.0021917144712066583, "correlation": 0.3286097575680137, "pit_histogram": [ 0.18994, 0.10463, 0.08874, 0.09733, 0.09524, 0.07695, 0.07292, 0.06472, 0.08242, 0.12711 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.24335682500660394 } }, "operational": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 9.591109370598549, 17.106081364557983, 30.63205404058011, 9.036117400487319, 11.53026320593431, 11.560818303829121, 52.66938931346065, 18.79141604435601 ], "crps_clim": [ 9.895516071070114, 14.17903530722128, 38.54879256346864, 8.382690795432643, 12.100478712529222, 9.990734718607943, 72.45749800359884, 14.992025314000559 ], "rps": [ 0.35541085276595297, 0.6026092939685119, 0.3922690286402604, 0.37128141423180633, 0.46755596976975594, 0.45680127594506265, 0.25849893599324036, 0.6036820068070248 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.39574475776394596, 0.4437047305666722, 0.546311199561453, 0.36237075360897236, 0.43798495130070614, 0.3932407178861523, 0.5285945268864339, 0.42293901304422793 ], "bias": [ 2.1880272406295127, -8.921294691700679, -36.88326251935537, 9.472355411002024, 9.173955509546614, 16.37215811649043, -59.634379327510686, -16.53036550602387 ], "mae": [ 13.191304000666685, 22.81098213544875, 38.77185303035505, 13.552520589754936, 19.106382744497967, 19.700610919026868, 65.14503622950971, 23.778267122811286 ], "mse": [ 315.26737998401876, 943.9754419683419, 2353.1786772456967, 375.14548983727786, 707.0042604333745, 699.2709886730199, 7927.67166831115, 1222.373054043579 ], "var": [ 1236.5469420272996, 881.2481870641371, 1861.5937390941162, 1065.0952558957858, 889.198932845352, 1379.9635929858343, 1961.3931980117932, 809.4423964408987 ], "zero": [ 0.0025820438436924375, 0.00879042198339892, 0.0022711286105919636, 0.0050707605093021635, 0.012561588332239602, 0.008183188880008348, 0.0015120588290740518, 0.011184805492395292 ] }, "crps": 20.114656130475502, "crpss": 0.10872264444592983, "rps": 0.4385135972652019, "rpss": 0.006452160304924126, "mean_bias_mm": -10.595350720865254, "mean_mae_mm": 27.007119596508907, "mean_rmse_mm": 42.63784551383967, "spread_error_ratio": 0.8326961517802413, "zero_fraction": 0.006519499560087847, "correlation": 0.49998609782760206, "pit_histogram": [ 0.0409, 0.05513, 0.07174, 0.0802, 0.11061, 0.117, 0.11123, 0.1086, 0.1056, 0.199 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.3040613365078717 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 15.015716627577326, 10.206819041024199, 30.760202730718746, 13.567619058463128, 13.19695739798977, 17.513793840755977, 82.79407177105922, 16.844406484121368 ], "crps_clim": [ 16.023613765163336, 12.042589782487557, 48.89791233340558, 12.005332284732548, 16.60873516709748, 15.463955391266797, 122.93071411734311, 15.359489400606916 ], "rps": [ 0.3457199201826524, 0.3442306886607283, 0.18905533775246197, 0.38972829531518577, 0.4796403768895211, 0.5218462689581724, 0.07902764599795731, 0.4228589320954516 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4012574985052145, 0.3824738866553415, 0.5455702609428927, 0.3608387586327424, 0.5032563034561837, 0.45825636877918047, 0.5532043323522959, 0.38836007080680135 ], "bias": [ -6.827839789964072, 14.667349218695524, -36.022287246791294, 20.474750377631903, 26.24431819123751, 30.645224355356984, -99.15239730413404, -8.638661096513928 ], "mae": [ 17.42357980873345, 17.056597017374646, 39.763953970926565, 22.024672640650728, 26.591645736669882, 31.993984447873746, 102.572279074743, 22.934516382691136 ], "mse": [ 523.6535452055998, 390.10288571098016, 2406.6433291108146, 716.4203589591692, 905.6250259552676, 1410.030758659272, 14431.50476930934, 1030.6242821386932 ], "var": [ 1788.2487771968706, 1370.5201625081984, 3245.78735103324, 1703.3515670661461, 1349.1437732016839, 1967.832056292316, 3144.44737171009, 1300.0667728958072 ], "zero": [ 0.0007467408980360028, 0.005675200282129735, 0.00040728931480371887, 0.0007128220322502846, 0.00958909794438938, 0.002920623912729915, 0.0, 0.009181962400556654 ] }, "crps": 24.98744836896372, "crpss": 0.22917602477406884, "rps": 0.34651343323151634, "rpss": 0.22851664805122385, "mean_bias_mm": -7.3261929118101765, "mean_mae_mm": 35.04515363495789, "mean_rmse_mm": 52.21901587909468, "spread_error_ratio": 0.8529165616831934, "zero_fraction": 0.0036542170981119617, "correlation": 0.8694938991570749, "pit_histogram": [ 0.08018, 0.1108, 0.11029, 0.10029, 0.10608, 0.0978, 0.09107, 0.09672, 0.0783, 0.12847 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.11185103397678578 } }, "full": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 19.895685004911662, 17.82662879015389, 14.056015808549827, 11.568092268401594, 50.15071222949935, 10.035596858259169, 8.246458133334027, 14.263686253536408, 7.602392367444375, 13.04012599166967, 9.840781836720115, 19.946756983418492, 11.972028264922765, 14.36895901190296, 12.76573742303417, 25.729066888920787, 15.496000395766167, 20.276294690427353, 35.12885036124308, 15.143926537170787, 29.69497929015793, 9.389016527813158, 13.102023730982141, 11.810337508424352, 9.781820351729191, 16.686891149376134, 29.06404759251431, 9.575958484352824, 11.47744718928136, 12.499817108246718, 51.90994050655803, 17.716810430900402 ], "crps_clim": [ 12.783782020353424, 22.511377726630435, 13.486233432588588, 12.69944443375219, 76.94122015896143, 12.20106868173247, 13.309810711893718, 13.382499762169186, 10.510860190270792, 11.948508158258385, 10.507324363236147, 19.219499581536, 12.15624842534919, 16.33110258238101, 12.70802225555305, 23.51737823123135, 11.65595466198018, 14.642515311603015, 37.809037033490284, 13.847526321731513, 31.179523394808456, 10.189531034239177, 17.927950590511536, 11.88010054552358, 10.658915041984727, 14.411604379011287, 38.49497020875638, 9.149304055972436, 12.957927427879538, 10.730182113419154, 72.85260912174846, 14.681246973704665 ], "rps": [ 0.712227025766473, 0.33466254444639293, 0.5587809604432048, 0.46165334478662146, 0.15322722339774034, 0.41251076489564326, 0.3341892417767402, 0.5043112644587866, 0.35869647719188047, 0.44910387218905057, 0.3407276551757566, 0.47070722612079297, 0.5022063712633871, 0.40147509179194524, 0.4043332268333478, 0.6281590030139138, 0.5519137509567181, 0.6444634513883221, 0.4547916416493996, 0.4208379901087297, 0.4257153061992586, 0.3606539004672482, 0.2587062243821375, 0.47229358351228, 0.35589519898640554, 0.5813816702461349, 0.36835187610163256, 0.3696907370113403, 0.444256072793466, 0.4683538673553708, 0.2510419040749434, 0.5843677817074656 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5099729077980537, 0.45223457520613386, 0.5042070796721, 0.4223319286224781, 0.5541349166685237, 0.4891341241458317, 0.46260551253834703, 0.41790847293771854, 0.47376507250073746, 0.44625492156786695, 0.3665742104158703, 0.46239929772210925, 0.44039805540566207, 0.4473385695884163, 0.41904326359193766, 0.4782106643198007, 0.43099085878539034, 0.4595141391239318, 0.5079472946014302, 0.4035582725551801, 0.49665385808099777, 0.3644779560242052, 0.4652165601075734, 0.42884001042431774, 0.4110384555452049, 0.43924247151695794, 0.5531184205365902, 0.36375626291307794, 0.4448249078788689, 0.3952033064964951, 0.5357304983934386, 0.4226854013145511 ], "bias": [ 33.82420749331171, -2.4128030719041687, 24.409298166927698, 6.128186421762417, -60.49932024692029, 19.494664914317, 15.572872847092285, -1.4730477180226775, 12.727980455963898, 26.954176597897384, 1.0437981255486293, -22.391923300463425, 9.651580367465478, -3.0117037566715568, 4.764988529318058, -20.94625554068608, 29.420779075474083, 33.65394105585184, -36.97034938093552, 7.493019090848242, -33.508443614945115, 1.980309677160716, 7.589301993711986, 13.032529752022679, 4.6498402528040605, -7.2254245691258125, -35.09020235050249, 12.010857859902867, 11.26620047750082, 19.681930675964157, -58.89886711198673, -15.062318974407843 ], "mae": [ 35.35454299331037, 25.055288616445818, 25.779005933075176, 17.02860186209421, 64.52689433537165, 20.026014339563382, 16.868983674069433, 19.462619828387723, 14.998892722023607, 27.634960117794986, 15.231102651958969, 26.015062668759693, 17.478383708380743, 20.53317689056424, 19.836899512502626, 32.77678955859907, 29.58380762931125, 34.58893876906473, 45.867247138511615, 23.234444547511934, 39.520294488426686, 13.29164140946714, 18.96674916041497, 18.70209036483598, 14.36777609655845, 22.81621978919363, 36.935480849034235, 14.826055917733685, 19.487673785931438, 21.893988040549036, 64.62851570344544, 22.698714081494217 ], "mse": [ 1837.4687724795751, 1140.1428791869964, 1062.4998306563452, 481.2567870706054, 7696.1820407764435, 645.1285494926991, 529.6712990984405, 634.23535243605, 342.9450504984657, 1238.2502067268683, 443.8921800196205, 1474.2810362622988, 526.2538941823174, 947.8717166594043, 662.0822210899174, 1893.7755682656193, 1369.0619323386381, 2141.6410478054904, 4508.666055787467, 1055.8803815241217, 2892.0427312001643, 357.06791115294885, 640.4782618963059, 599.5423527780326, 340.8923260433668, 910.2243046464447, 2157.1806700688358, 414.22687902843415, 713.7649247801622, 793.311123747747, 7830.124607888395, 1105.7869082466602 ], "var": [ 1603.016374739257, 3206.670252960171, 1055.8315332428288, 985.6164593706543, 2338.703937237547, 1212.548992207183, 1128.658079299957, 714.4619891010014, 1073.864497752607, 1917.4760035651486, 1084.053291893222, 1237.3293132386189, 1509.769946213589, 1663.1630169609816, 1419.6611457784609, 1058.948117264032, 1778.1248676341536, 1550.8227241055677, 1509.1749434155436, 1647.1744514456777, 1488.915582318144, 1265.866990749316, 2325.519907685869, 998.3708170569232, 1395.9650001430548, 969.3690616711758, 1948.1682307015358, 1195.8477570547877, 987.3961622996118, 1558.7564650164456, 2005.841058472693, 884.33919298101 ], "zero": [ 0.004884159554093707, 0.0010175930007352936, 0.0016001577218703576, 0.005170341498615997, 0.0007173045085414388, 0.001143638131133162, 0.007873176427995511, 0.00039740620573866633, 0.006220199746195406, 0.0028214457240101016, 0.0038790906006246437, 0.004445395875961082, 0.0025396579427551485, 0.0028962592662863116, 0.0025708046952385966, 0.016759282247170625, 0.006372546200591536, 0.0018690417519513904, 0.0109969465574892, 0.0022729515204874783, 0.00423221826727345, 0.002480619440006088, 0.00021293985315423548, 0.0009044471857671569, 0.0025820438436924375, 0.00879042198339892, 0.0022711286105919636, 0.0050707605093021635, 0.012561588332239602, 0.008183188880008348, 0.0015120588290740518, 0.011184805492395292 ] }, "crps": 17.814465186550727, "crpss": 0.09121938187167511, "rps": 0.43874019532789155, "rpss": 0.02969221958675694, "mean_bias_mm": -0.0668811189289289, "mean_mae_mm": 26.250526787012067, "mean_rmse_mm": 39.2849485346467, "spread_error_ratio": 0.972629801427434, "zero_fraction": 0.004576050637637167, "correlation": 0.29696835370028785, "pit_histogram": [ 0.10432, 0.07917, 0.08581, 0.10489, 0.11785, 0.11976, 0.10395, 0.08618, 0.08666, 0.1114 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.12435870475669998 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 33.01045023608831, 26.26978498550509, 18.76783445540933, 10.646518384199087, 82.55451608078484, 14.259023103821598, 8.968934255348836, 12.187276869380616, 10.907508905824335, 15.505910267668014, 13.060460358923917, 34.34663931464654, 12.370420952598469, 24.32910605739718, 16.01701291175003, 18.65615876238533, 20.748646584055166, 33.86438875872309, 59.60178407957826, 17.25190129482955, 50.25690262262014, 11.516610553665911, 16.155026599018143, 12.937752022982224, 14.724257301848835, 10.933778330216972, 29.743886961410237, 14.301204522077956, 14.148331043129092, 18.42776712992524, 84.04840794698366, 16.450604333362577 ], "crps_clim": [ 18.971560801065813, 35.6367147291537, 18.636916636476265, 13.008245857985397, 122.09582939281907, 17.78179646878491, 17.998112084481825, 13.076782675945864, 14.529083489713967, 13.24418302159305, 14.803193391112085, 34.07821828870073, 14.676722636955915, 29.418403592206143, 16.790159921611743, 19.251560181834897, 13.33628914107295, 23.960236587257803, 65.78672153414695, 11.854513425492197, 53.7131677313048, 13.396064979901809, 23.74020434353359, 12.389359531750223, 16.618238808520573, 13.04598803914388, 49.69954751558125, 12.770847456632547, 18.242786444806796, 16.533666942942173, 125.40466313928738, 15.824528080373357 ], "rps": [ 0.9770727960701211, 0.27612154153947804, 0.5436512688708204, 0.42836266565340353, 0.11377532020135352, 0.4588660778654306, 0.3044196028306782, 0.4254971041611328, 0.4056425569296757, 0.38698005611288944, 0.2890930776104498, 0.49422265692293804, 0.414163802461865, 0.3422170618129582, 0.3693988108579572, 0.460070822266649, 0.6299449284854282, 0.8792633111149627, 0.3707993698363899, 0.4057292089110555, 0.39147715736607974, 0.2861722402281046, 0.169432976093859, 0.4847391722566736, 0.33359121698776517, 0.3454156723271761, 0.16974789903373005, 0.39191645223701027, 0.49537940176624906, 0.5270556076408294, 0.07502933488329956, 0.4133615044700738 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.546221849426887, 0.5006209898385597, 0.47463997727575263, 0.41815000367394756, 0.5629552549427683, 0.49498688948174796, 0.477643485597547, 0.3820838914918218, 0.4675924281943521, 0.34140859723145817, 0.32837245319421293, 0.5374315918996531, 0.42791161191971255, 0.478997744827492, 0.3859727031231156, 0.43079003405987637, 0.4091224667534369, 0.5629552549427682, 0.5473749777298041, 0.31762780372493987, 0.5567250638845919, 0.3314668314118201, 0.5013535927665776, 0.3938931012781259, 0.4005237610004716, 0.37374789498522504, 0.5536094138716743, 0.347079043610374, 0.5202270950400264, 0.4553182914080023, 0.5617070387526095, 0.38432907468585364 ], "bias": [ 55.05948168249611, -14.19477183941605, 32.22908000640808, 14.367841187910264, -106.58389666196278, 27.39299440194611, 20.098295473146266, 11.57927565864778, 16.67965203411237, 31.732331380269073, -6.545240943006576, -44.587152430803314, 18.042571532102514, -18.210750906037585, -7.0208575742777315, -11.839219465283316, 40.23749665552528, 55.51988278523701, -75.75108515523782, 29.594590946942553, -65.59458718285907, 3.627635128412911, 18.37134850575024, 18.287000136909402, -5.297992234460616, 16.579215236400845, -34.52751314656678, 22.793898375176976, 28.188282188793977, 33.06309827972549, -101.39512697220673, -7.613791232610115 ], "mae": [ 55.05948168249611, 34.38504051121676, 34.394466947205096, 18.15737381465624, 106.60122695858351, 27.977217501007114, 20.778184008579757, 19.822299331914337, 21.025568523193304, 32.036297835936324, 17.902519639315127, 45.12923767630446, 21.705509007943814, 31.608175324261943, 20.276409234037693, 26.7141811451275, 40.23749665552528, 55.51988278523701, 76.73825424612114, 30.279006827383995, 65.67933260409033, 15.698482290786668, 23.635955755774315, 22.07224769224761, 17.34433092745803, 18.90455012206681, 38.179547138498535, 23.643252738819182, 28.418813937097823, 33.750531807437895, 103.84463703915603, 22.34935658379048 ], "mse": [ 3360.460881611123, 1925.5128398425861, 1568.3749019522834, 442.33088064905075, 14092.311365522126, 952.4296430625586, 603.2889504313885, 545.9831226214702, 559.6630943814494, 1413.7050068037727, 647.8008283418362, 2981.665550801772, 633.8943788049205, 1942.90080948413, 684.8315695346222, 1446.486286939103, 1867.4573323125994, 3983.3589341452007, 9409.575300753191, 1367.8379512507704, 5547.790497892867, 404.9631831415605, 856.1907673633259, 621.3618425818154, 503.59651744631185, 467.0187530590765, 2258.0379423859154, 788.7278902348022, 1001.6378859768944, 1502.633650523354, 14723.245044671583, 990.2329991446669 ], "var": [ 2148.1031800995524, 4115.693120539696, 1515.3110791069355, 1203.7650984223037, 3240.767073784746, 1514.5569309963444, 1661.1751346070505, 931.2766231737255, 1457.1779570226824, 2509.524748623221, 1309.028669640762, 1604.5422563509928, 1584.660867798748, 2426.8272606918918, 1813.7765600208365, 1640.803591171775, 2520.010265387645, 1968.0146900847585, 2087.5991258386025, 2315.5974416209806, 1932.462481168909, 1846.9581014013424, 4036.9333198836184, 1191.9658119735122, 1894.27395358893, 1477.8550841635888, 3315.9012612501556, 1834.600583111085, 1429.8386321643002, 2072.513022257762, 3023.7324265395187, 1356.928698234916 ], "zero": [ 0.0019410524324200503, 0.0008308702021995864, 0.0, 0.007969702564675425, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002492517698429611, 0.0, 0.0032565482689731404, 0.0, 0.0031895307268770857, 0.0, 0.002492517698429611, 0.0, 0.0038088753871645094, 0.01247595470706571, 0.001110182230220464, 0.0, 0.006865223617052536, 0.0, 0.006168171775452067, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007467408980360028, 0.005675200282129735, 0.00040728931480371887, 0.0007128220322502846, 0.00958909794438938, 0.002920623912729915, 0.0, 0.009181962400556654 ] }, "crps": 24.280275187067453, "crpss": 0.13700271110269224, "rps": 0.40808158361895275, "rpss": 0.09771610240287609, "mean_bias_mm": -0.178687942150475, "mean_mae_mm": 35.933402134164695, "mean_rmse_mm": 50.02977444846848, "spread_error_ratio": 0.9007278431107928, "zero_fraction": 0.002557340127932984, "correlation": 0.5258583294682166, "pit_histogram": [ 0.16924, 0.10783, 0.09527, 0.1014, 0.09704, 0.08587, 0.077, 0.07325, 0.0814, 0.1117 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.18033597294584053 } }, "distribution_full": { "ethiopia": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9994527536075168, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.0029386968888016427 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9364646802245713, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.27299398281116766 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.7321453661816743, "area_mean_abs_log": 1.233790674364022 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 1.1035777342027604, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.31088231726909143 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0065582020272257, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.15253851748963865 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0006127450980392157, "area_mean": -0.002581280319888255 } }, "ondj_domain": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9960393361415536, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.004094889032618585 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 0.7716011762924063, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.26047848190135714 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 1.2030088795834801, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.9009994343554228 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 1.278976540440589, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.35035170009135747 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9216896420932301, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.13163993631126522 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": -0.013254759593673773 } } } }, "mvs": { "training": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 19.153942926218445, 18.218514714664643, 12.424593782604552, 10.765689569885533, 53.62449141208088, 8.779621601337334, 7.33841880513256, 13.389783082949172, 6.921230037599558, 12.734251839534032, 10.389321298646053, 21.11752701175559, 10.606561692114076, 14.542205553284008, 13.433966028782056, 25.794745338868132, 13.967335548533969, 18.68167552567017, 35.39753196999179, 15.863426672108504, 30.94229215099866, 10.109559627550162, 14.057263004805558, 10.283885370045319 ], "crps_clim": [ 12.317536543467577, 23.35796459817729, 12.697045070793552, 12.202051839195779, 80.47285365334993, 11.548375983365016, 12.678451972317543, 13.236171134630228, 9.77344956703739, 11.308094418769002, 10.495885058363076, 19.78743863254775, 11.56945900909618, 16.417052730597515, 12.717960992194332, 23.466029141135742, 10.74931047318028, 14.20169205564696, 38.727205395504946, 14.581796635287228, 32.862113763760696, 10.161605103260042, 18.582117729180727, 10.941519369614019 ], "rps": [ 0.729382515600607, 0.33684942636340626, 0.5523750976699471, 0.3943934557706562, 0.16266792173989883, 0.40225425799376147, 0.33324726435273844, 0.4476517820956412, 0.3725924640821571, 0.5041652777001558, 0.3895972391213066, 0.5158691753812895, 0.4264692107409823, 0.3931380375118413, 0.46112011511905937, 0.5743849288483244, 0.49492749038705325, 0.5737302667488435, 0.4454506458243758, 0.41419028586137147, 0.44641443049521695, 0.3494858591694124, 0.24919260531360957, 0.4289559220066012 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.503268882341884, 0.45696255193683133, 0.4925766326091148, 0.42240641708616883, 0.5420235822074022, 0.4714149775295732, 0.455605992500462, 0.4281783876000402, 0.46522974758146945, 0.45001555732494986, 0.3793571949725829, 0.4624359120204484, 0.4373678925332641, 0.4400525449202173, 0.42589693023153363, 0.47068205353537346, 0.4255615214855194, 0.4516170482691049, 0.49843663106201835, 0.41189108424683096, 0.4992305010159512, 0.3787617113337185, 0.4739156168036444, 0.434610826319066 ], "bias": [ 31.844590349913773, -3.9725187374349438, 22.086067438260162, 3.21927039758438, -66.58813787106118, 17.080445621576118, 12.958146015907998, -4.262302329939902, 10.290461439586206, 24.92648591724115, -2.178131649148547, -24.961215641182964, 6.890388954037998, -4.738598444377293, 1.4046051316765078, -23.39458640281893, 27.433171929000796, 31.276537653556588, -39.74326074414422, 5.800719013550914, -36.48828161340856, -0.36288180737999787, 6.492108012381886, 10.628994662523622 ], "mae": [ 34.44006842041576, 25.014497812532092, 23.60681230311126, 15.62307208357119, 68.60004965751553, 18.029891080047285, 14.77869457682653, 18.063277395254374, 13.251611924957732, 26.059025235344322, 14.97618018678439, 27.943188290018064, 15.60128386596328, 20.593788378146183, 19.029326042816738, 32.00966630143883, 27.72384763231145, 32.7591910070877, 46.53182501724052, 24.59095411187528, 41.081510437530845, 13.878216926764638, 20.299457317516826, 16.442173319793486 ], "mse": [ 1813.049564630038, 1167.2927415171519, 917.9070793684429, 421.7153664440047, 8408.465847192321, 525.3891441001208, 426.7857583292447, 557.3420694226398, 266.63051489042965, 1139.0448496724725, 480.3557288887731, 1639.3173251660094, 411.3835270512002, 987.2294532304113, 636.9060816717409, 1854.6029757584624, 1243.6266461585976, 2070.9100952475546, 4611.426670461012, 1182.843979837761, 3117.8396362012986, 440.17229998128596, 711.8528243035806, 461.9938045171572 ], "var": [ 1574.4103838989663, 3338.0398947169047, 1073.6402101681472, 965.0630915365059, 1942.862313476489, 1211.8257272952333, 1152.7804318777125, 744.6471856773501, 1098.965772200386, 1926.2108734676094, 1044.1866764643935, 1262.68036236834, 1422.6512780347086, 1748.7594564645647, 1395.4716184121103, 1137.8707303870326, 1850.6314659051955, 1511.7211974360218, 1477.79783792437, 1693.01695702755, 1482.296143634705, 1305.3794931987861, 2549.1491725580872, 986.0820562394365 ], "zero": [ 0.06330306823806117, 0.07608950638388254, 0.05597239581015714, 0.09537512639607357, 0.02853987253580058, 0.09068150374511648, 0.1280118420932243, 0.06612050716426554, 0.11359220073113009, 0.07107702490853396, 0.07774054988433818, 0.11339191980012672, 0.09125604661325075, 0.06376671611880906, 0.11377972240433357, 0.12590770932832135, 0.06855074905365652, 0.0549937265850516, 0.08442592568920847, 0.07060370493547999, 0.09905491309406525, 0.07578890851526461, 0.03742051537118403, 0.06509931791979627 ] }, "crps": 17.022409773548365, "crpss": 0.08163445349373799, "rps": 0.433271069829094, "rpss": 0.04403534937930387, "mean_bias_mm": 0.23508655399589826, "mean_mae_mm": 25.45531705520268, "mean_rmse_mm": 38.45673108835095, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0056477606885876, "zero_fraction": 0.08043931138829716, "correlation": 0.2330004638444051, "pit_histogram": [ 0.1028, 0.08047, 0.10252, 0.11488, 0.1209, 0.10907, 0.09551, 0.08107, 0.09004, 0.10275 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.10584261609682638 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 31.436912551165427, 27.814136527617432, 16.64549155045625, 9.900773765459975, 84.5978243671011, 12.384128850029233, 8.102866022021171, 10.5304915274146, 9.48940526210459, 15.633158444463406, 14.463040992709605, 36.10563849688036, 11.034211070343645, 25.37832558410506, 17.839040612253537, 19.00787245185837, 19.83324590388074, 31.695624781988112, 60.23168051205217, 17.319215757003427, 51.39918149483588, 12.912878862802653, 18.053040477563187, 11.66262471442348 ], "crps_clim": [ 18.52395116853421, 36.87672256900793, 18.170789562622396, 12.289909839909377, 126.90605491615098, 17.41989047035546, 17.706970523055745, 12.351304505468207, 13.796387526958524, 13.076262007562349, 14.560429422573055, 34.92849143385597, 13.963924627676032, 30.04724509587627, 16.82171605773241, 18.528924529932958, 12.89918086433115, 23.58960486668408, 67.53597007272384, 11.371976284610398, 55.90409404224628, 13.21381402559538, 23.974094843997456, 11.63096415863434 ], "rps": [ 0.894110388692411, 0.3078241736135777, 0.448411309172694, 0.35830945674116227, 0.11916192557597081, 0.359007782195402, 0.2431558267231255, 0.3486495421674876, 0.32366001575382247, 0.404532019937748, 0.33949370365012244, 0.5484904328320906, 0.35328007383908233, 0.3595126396735382, 0.4331387818163019, 0.4551024536284239, 0.561613353836267, 0.7596112030588825, 0.4158314692439472, 0.40173660495172786, 0.42519855993726036, 0.3249823059775913, 0.160080167174572, 0.4329224229781112 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5345788969238703, 0.4969529963190181, 0.4649874789243917, 0.41318634740760435, 0.546313799621928, 0.4766642051904933, 0.47169819738486596, 0.3818166848915748, 0.4706484126244913, 0.36582560440255596, 0.35459642943677694, 0.5238068939647562, 0.42423555831428944, 0.4745855744751957, 0.4052259209726985, 0.43061974360983973, 0.4027224211940853, 0.5463137996219276, 0.5329121077567514, 0.33515957321525397, 0.5425588509144538, 0.35778764325037954, 0.505082202846066, 0.40346036499799176 ], "bias": [ 55.196878069799396, -12.489334025122057, 30.25911506052624, 12.294634123537735, -108.1971451689599, 25.09785020783674, 16.745446061075054, 8.653484415066181, 14.041998586313468, 31.026217429213617, -9.166988379838376, -47.18493830968751, 15.656460214736335, -18.744990938617363, -9.116224628754809, -14.519373368759716, 40.15347756856949, 54.85215004287781, -77.88433526878725, 29.551077486486903, -66.98182150426544, 1.7783853932791538, 22.36064816469625, 16.459990529869433 ], "mae": [ 55.196878069799396, 35.71495315687597, 32.20261151743553, 16.49994281885532, 108.30879926082669, 25.774555735531752, 17.867423371791393, 16.921224676184906, 18.963834911079736, 31.454388489068783, 18.438372550190206, 47.56801906543906, 19.262609376813696, 32.4496605052252, 21.184262694816937, 25.895847767695386, 40.15347756856949, 54.85215004287781, 78.31146070210485, 30.28179093351682, 67.05223933629446, 16.154923177780383, 26.161107589462194, 20.294691339247617 ], "mse": [ 3420.7859519931058, 1996.760166913943, 1440.0995110121653, 375.39227624670883, 14803.42573297463, 837.2592723756712, 491.943164228623, 415.5144609525867, 457.9583705569359, 1427.4986773349262, 735.3856156447686, 3168.6985640108664, 505.5851585740078, 2022.8491030518355, 744.8593135857752, 1397.55506438796, 1909.3491088115952, 4048.9752662587134, 9600.545686722524, 1359.485683307002, 5769.050986569381, 447.21078891563263, 983.3047539021373, 528.7282115070026 ], "var": [ 2464.1708646570924, 5141.868376837966, 1744.374223068359, 1461.252590282669, 3299.9374895875344, 1830.4558062554647, 1964.1699415451203, 1144.0965136129869, 1751.1282944475834, 3033.2441775383454, 1625.4875531953228, 1982.183714517974, 1965.422340087733, 2992.044128243731, 2224.761931025431, 2010.3104456869712, 2995.011044025498, 2227.7315843146025, 2335.169758669901, 2772.414421114969, 2379.0287625102196, 2249.488536548517, 4973.577602466304, 1492.8249719901546 ], "zero": [ 0.05750739729815065, 0.0978280251307915, 0.08689323542677706, 0.14113429810573802, 0.023113484301933416, 0.13724871449819948, 0.20416715569832314, 0.08192720659807494, 0.1810395496558763, 0.08512397384373963, 0.11304074965700261, 0.15242246643255022, 0.13213353902588768, 0.06487637907462171, 0.20302165520972554, 0.18801810599146582, 0.0683213619168556, 0.06508756733521617, 0.10874336930825261, 0.07297816523560899, 0.16709410682894127, 0.09472606723648984, 0.03569184108805458, 0.0514867432503002 ] }, "crps": 23.894617107522222, "crpss": 0.09844203403162977, "rps": 0.40740902554880504, "rpss": 0.09979277023785849, "mean_bias_mm": 0.4101109067121402, "mean_mae_mm": 35.70688436072849, "mean_rmse_mm": 49.53459266421737, "spread_error_ratio": 0.9929442811544474, "zero_fraction": 0.1089010482561907, "correlation": 0.345809542473167, "pit_histogram": [ 0.06784, 0.10019, 0.11982, 0.12702, 0.13772, 0.09743, 0.08612, 0.07966, 0.08696, 0.09723 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.16952016733660596 } }, "operational": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 10.047077264020103, 17.02915166140948, 29.729102462715755, 9.095441789362491, 10.79487276784335, 11.165980440691913, 47.783663736060156, 18.919884671802354 ], "crps_clim": [ 9.895516071070114, 14.17903530722128, 38.54879256346864, 8.382690795432643, 12.100478712529222, 9.990734718607943, 72.45749800359884, 14.992025314000559 ], "rps": [ 0.3867689016714154, 0.5592735366809529, 0.3742679860205046, 0.35557630402970625, 0.43686774609427886, 0.4165602720481056, 0.2692524798749694, 0.5892753489768855 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.39574475776394596, 0.4437047305666722, 0.546311199561453, 0.36237075360897236, 0.43798495130070614, 0.3932407178861523, 0.5285945268864339, 0.42293901304422793 ], "bias": [ 2.468773135432175, -8.857474425235088, -34.40978125488768, 10.064849738177026, 8.882097987508295, 16.762518538999192, -55.61316826719052, -16.562719803155638 ], "mae": [ 13.342060383202686, 22.18232527563278, 36.81325224997115, 13.951067190958293, 18.94835381491852, 20.060798694004475, 61.432456900599355, 23.5823771026589 ], "mse": [ 317.5791774029342, 919.7677525696392, 2180.2974876276644, 390.08138846410424, 694.7428757218355, 723.1285391730657, 7000.680656642814, 1235.2555420713877 ], "var": [ 1428.0718540714324, 1032.8008329579309, 2268.1898948525118, 1269.945086905766, 1000.6224662262139, 1545.0100881740061, 2403.0621920796843, 946.501256338108 ], "zero": [ 0.10614586332084397, 0.1325648874444388, 0.04834665602822799, 0.1138715141693662, 0.12164449880088454, 0.08712556265142221, 0.03528750817618214, 0.1470471390889717 ] }, "crps": 19.3206468492382, "crpss": 0.14390507500184502, "rps": 0.42348032192460233, "rpss": 0.04051331218560539, "mean_bias_mm": -9.65811304379403, "mean_mae_mm": 26.28908645149327, "mean_rmse_mm": 41.020625025213604, "spread_error_ratio": 0.9399839075941235, "zero_fraction": 0.0990042037100422, "correlation": 0.49855125303456044, "pit_histogram": [ 0.03602, 0.03397, 0.08404, 0.10819, 0.12391, 0.11577, 0.10672, 0.10351, 0.09608, 0.19178 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.29977462403406663 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 16.10222355807312, 10.518374807702662, 29.340485507306006, 14.040056894433233, 12.073121259336729, 16.982206914203953, 71.93514886126577, 18.098847871603237 ], "crps_clim": [ 16.023613765163336, 12.042589782487557, 48.89791233340558, 12.005332284732548, 16.60873516709748, 15.463955391266797, 122.93071411734311, 15.359489400606916 ], "rps": [ 0.38039684364070053, 0.3291510678429338, 0.19658825806150432, 0.39551338508048683, 0.3958167416819367, 0.4795281614024598, 0.08192637453076951, 0.4763378032598105 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4012574985052145, 0.3824738866553415, 0.5455702609428927, 0.3608387586327424, 0.5032563034561837, 0.45825636877918047, 0.5532043323522959, 0.38836007080680135 ], "bias": [ -6.232455075046006, 13.865785519365238, -30.767958060827283, 20.90953684985304, 24.855992570959202, 31.021400508820893, -90.20215363320831, -9.85982055341532 ], "mae": [ 17.464906245359554, 16.47403458845183, 35.92118967816316, 22.413584088167852, 25.63414445546671, 32.47052148753678, 94.11979449253495, 23.302597638482588 ], "mse": [ 524.276815886108, 369.17596528277363, 2086.0182002507872, 739.2991005116629, 848.8975597327524, 1464.1150960034, 12297.350064394306, 1039.7977710779396 ], "var": [ 2350.507088001719, 1712.0720141915044, 4264.4145121441, 2166.9216085717894, 1656.9185798314832, 2461.0553625411485, 4208.99577097963, 1624.6956974857167 ], "zero": [ 0.13473975614274145, 0.16035269105923466, 0.03959595000280817, 0.13844682948700077, 0.1496757539428345, 0.1219445686663743, 0.021292803851703797, 0.2072721211750863 ] }, "crps": 23.63630820924059, "crpss": 0.2708566003024927, "rps": 0.3419073294375753, "rpss": 0.2387717552233588, "mean_bias_mm": -5.801208984187318, "mean_mae_mm": 33.47509658427043, "mean_rmse_mm": 49.20484042899099, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0274173681801488, "zero_fraction": 0.121665059290973, "correlation": 0.869480676994114, "pit_histogram": [ 0.00856, 0.04829, 0.13943, 0.15014, 0.13949, 0.12051, 0.11288, 0.10585, 0.0731, 0.10174 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.3400905305220131 } }, "full": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 19.69285659637501, 17.511576621684174, 13.631778652897427, 11.032383863331042, 48.26601046884804, 9.448318157017901, 8.116867871461558, 13.455141999253868, 7.4419133351059745, 13.594967556549367, 10.263592709371261, 19.722152691695964, 11.020723134752753, 14.505491041706604, 13.480236649198856, 25.63035328340715, 15.014930307747402, 19.279539820107345, 34.68554821181829, 14.967344473611059, 28.713491438168905, 9.629989785614125, 14.096884585564206, 11.074370022143645, 10.371824715358578, 16.55925686834723, 28.525104976494294, 9.487345006847194, 10.760925973822536, 11.9416802501886, 47.62422777102833, 17.937168364831816 ], "crps_clim": [ 12.783782020353424, 22.511377726630435, 13.486233432588588, 12.69944443375219, 76.94122015896143, 12.20106868173247, 13.309810711893718, 13.382499762169186, 10.510860190270792, 11.948508158258385, 10.507324363236147, 19.219499581536, 12.15624842534919, 16.33110258238101, 12.70802225555305, 23.51737823123135, 11.65595466198018, 14.642515311603015, 37.809037033490284, 13.847526321731513, 31.179523394808456, 10.189531034239177, 17.927950590511536, 11.88010054552358, 10.658915041984727, 14.411604379011287, 38.49497020875638, 9.149304055972436, 12.957927427879538, 10.730182113419154, 72.85260912174846, 14.681246973704665 ], "rps": [ 0.740627786520814, 0.33207892895939367, 0.5928526731794466, 0.3998438694903703, 0.146726015665485, 0.4398990096055841, 0.3541402438304076, 0.43719206378473313, 0.39036260635615094, 0.5176542972452354, 0.3978301518339595, 0.48996572013894374, 0.4315144022656165, 0.41198809864582236, 0.47033956030802543, 0.568413635209539, 0.5238692215487691, 0.6033324443415939, 0.44473487639768905, 0.4043820917867203, 0.43230694343254616, 0.35256098487998977, 0.24350860724842213, 0.421058953593158, 0.40597918425459745, 0.5322647698129561, 0.34737983058667854, 0.3637739187558163, 0.4150907034320213, 0.43939703934523994, 0.25919396002215267, 0.567216318042071 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5099729077980537, 0.45223457520613386, 0.5042070796721, 0.4223319286224781, 0.5541349166685237, 0.4891341241458317, 0.46260551253834703, 0.41790847293771854, 0.47376507250073746, 0.44625492156786695, 0.3665742104158703, 0.46239929772210925, 0.44039805540566207, 0.4473385695884163, 0.41904326359193766, 0.4782106643198007, 0.43099085878539034, 0.4595141391239318, 0.5079472946014302, 0.4035582725551801, 0.49665385808099777, 0.3644779560242052, 0.4652165601075734, 0.42884001042431774, 0.4110384555452049, 0.43924247151695794, 0.5531184205365902, 0.36375626291307794, 0.4448249078788689, 0.3952033064964951, 0.5357304983934386, 0.4226854013145511 ], "bias": [ 34.26044402704419, -0.4266722399597997, 24.45474898390217, 5.497898698020314, -60.081680407355904, 19.381763558549086, 14.970859780406904, -1.7837126170222175, 12.559127612840133, 27.39343132057365, 0.4561692308509871, -22.210719599277272, 9.192051465731536, -1.7059521117480798, 4.1366709747044474, -21.05966617963413, 29.789138535353512, 33.72353255330871, -36.555456940093606, 8.792446189579584, -33.33364438828035, 2.007675103030692, 9.967143902744509, 12.708782002912043, 4.897677128150028, -7.211090920294991, -32.07367914430945, 12.698396186825248, 10.988257545982359, 19.927703761716067, -55.71724041236473, -15.12467163689198 ], "mae": [ 35.855389873663995, 23.94114851044015, 25.811784160477135, 16.569174542572625, 62.52604082573971, 19.88143551295425, 16.292543681723, 18.47206966665255, 14.950606358837108, 27.998759072757966, 15.187951029581258, 26.161223023021996, 17.081029690901577, 20.629597209897707, 19.304458356293633, 32.28758616569492, 29.997107948861, 34.492352338583, 46.103558550852426, 23.982411529688367, 38.69595548632362, 13.60851470964707, 21.274130327305706, 18.144449374124417, 14.434725477018594, 22.095272413953218, 35.26867417030459, 15.289635934643465, 19.47240328511741, 22.111147547965935, 61.410119864131886, 22.5913827789497 ], "mse": [ 1900.1310267370873, 1030.3003074041003, 1068.0619150852242, 461.9870426893346, 7452.088118355781, 613.5121911462463, 503.26946102036095, 592.1674349778484, 328.5122379306545, 1264.5710778614534, 452.09371326458853, 1484.818313678716, 504.0532206706996, 940.9878229406155, 636.3711073969395, 1851.2388962877455, 1402.6219725350172, 2140.4102353005956, 4517.03225102889, 1088.1400290112929, 2811.623040383868, 369.82888660375016, 784.1556126576211, 568.254689389124, 340.9640176322703, 880.5578555044316, 1999.658915779446, 430.0500927305842, 707.3835946745593, 811.9939545533292, 7018.5624892916985, 1118.8313746211716 ], "var": [ 1699.635338761527, 3569.50634178707, 1155.2814328982038, 1049.9689411947456, 2496.370125951602, 1315.536654799502, 1236.732393046847, 807.2144893154797, 1201.7840737904799, 2116.743393300672, 1143.0430259457885, 1404.159008356961, 1526.0607497972485, 1920.265405056849, 1538.3790035033223, 1200.515177692121, 2016.0941567470486, 1637.7541352396136, 1609.122403498829, 1857.3750566731214, 1643.4176581610084, 1386.0515617543963, 2717.219196242746, 1064.1592873651796, 1578.521801912905, 1122.4791529443014, 2467.3264582506486, 1402.1017815904238, 1057.9745377816673, 1665.2335444896485, 2284.1421805354407, 1029.7458196682735 ], "zero": [ 0.05387178677476811, 0.06450101384821279, 0.05160172741284547, 0.08614193274721121, 0.025971861809185644, 0.08505506665382914, 0.12166272508453982, 0.05978657623085273, 0.1046904048092747, 0.06361647998380648, 0.07040557940866468, 0.09804019197429657, 0.08456967339633667, 0.05225548331606531, 0.10721966102307401, 0.11074851994079242, 0.0604958163532857, 0.049896488624082025, 0.07555972939813503, 0.058243669814329296, 0.09005477478694748, 0.06723531474847842, 0.030492778987170965, 0.05528906942402043, 0.0943636765340908, 0.12333899891784453, 0.04585331371574583, 0.09848855821262374, 0.10451265211483181, 0.0759578096217408, 0.02464153013539619, 0.1427668241670352 ] }, "crps": 17.421374912635955, "crpss": 0.11127234548116915, "rps": 0.4336712159537484, "rpss": 0.04090265842473373, "mean_bias_mm": 0.32874162390605033, "mean_mae_mm": 25.99758248183375, "mean_rmse_mm": 38.75977009862523, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0392279100590522, "zero_fraction": 0.07616655281154731, "correlation": 0.29018050471295176, "pit_histogram": [ 0.10595, 0.07515, 0.10177, 0.11811, 0.12336, 0.10727, 0.09383, 0.08392, 0.08601, 0.10463 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.12218911558060219 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 31.81737578253967, 26.16478568795723, 17.0155675808011, 10.226386411669598, 76.2840354117458, 12.465729978529504, 8.434657337112746, 11.01922086153881, 9.65227445299015, 15.894334879231417, 14.284106834521447, 34.71626706347697, 11.382672224092662, 25.071869398399972, 17.62841279966914, 19.42241569091132, 20.340420491804338, 31.455127813401706, 58.43977301417334, 18.193335485178068, 48.776831341218625, 12.844937885304445, 19.17845638773511, 12.117193900242471, 16.17890298131784, 11.162067529634434, 28.798510827114722, 14.543508090787386, 12.92488584585889, 17.608249952072505, 74.0988232422127, 18.04263147873664 ], "crps_clim": [ 18.971560801065813, 35.6367147291537, 18.636916636476265, 13.008245857985397, 122.09582939281907, 17.78179646878491, 17.998112084481825, 13.076782675945864, 14.529083489713967, 13.24418302159305, 14.803193391112085, 34.07821828870073, 14.676722636955915, 29.418403592206143, 16.790159921611743, 19.251560181834897, 13.33628914107295, 23.960236587257803, 65.78672153414695, 11.854513425492197, 53.7131677313048, 13.396064979901809, 23.74020434353359, 12.389359531750223, 16.618238808520573, 13.04598803914388, 49.69954751558125, 12.770847456632547, 18.242786444806796, 16.533666942942173, 125.40466313928738, 15.824528080373357 ], "rps": [ 0.8861271196774024, 0.3003091254119213, 0.46938293470384207, 0.3785893096400187, 0.11734333343521906, 0.37779904999905195, 0.259425235275748, 0.36472421714765846, 0.3218668982428449, 0.4031297708537062, 0.3322104151430272, 0.5456533333970769, 0.35984600439732467, 0.3627182195716206, 0.42643750932200497, 0.4560105700512189, 0.5897197231847067, 0.7571302256183101, 0.4099143840052456, 0.40654102767954475, 0.4296237048490302, 0.32893893702452565, 0.17908482957208968, 0.4261377792267133, 0.377995305117171, 0.3381003104046971, 0.1834698025531653, 0.38876245429309075, 0.40770313354175547, 0.4801912410610632, 0.07791904777565488, 0.4709182831880023 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.546221849426887, 0.5006209898385597, 0.47463997727575263, 0.41815000367394756, 0.5629552549427683, 0.49498688948174796, 0.477643485597547, 0.3820838914918218, 0.4675924281943521, 0.34140859723145817, 0.32837245319421293, 0.5374315918996531, 0.42791161191971255, 0.478997744827492, 0.3859727031231156, 0.43079003405987637, 0.4091224667534369, 0.5629552549427682, 0.5473749777298041, 0.31762780372493987, 0.5567250638845919, 0.3314668314118201, 0.5013535927665776, 0.3938931012781259, 0.4005237610004716, 0.37374789498522504, 0.5536094138716743, 0.347079043610374, 0.5202270950400264, 0.4553182914080023, 0.5617070387526095, 0.38432907468585364 ], "bias": [ 56.90051657422855, -9.680708226680155, 31.227116227755598, 13.202107034406772, -99.56875392444425, 25.980755232950965, 17.37117321454885, 9.594057717961203, 15.169346852646287, 32.629100992922346, -7.879032488372546, -44.89952867633793, 16.688542832201424, -15.667189594730766, -7.625921175774581, -13.391054813135765, 41.86755162852595, 55.65063928967061, -75.18245675919411, 31.689358230460783, -64.1705014757872, 3.2973013981727295, 25.808058863200944, 17.691932666626798, -4.599033201005302, 15.613214066696527, -27.55273611681203, 23.238572813553645, 26.57072147166825, 33.271225677167834, -93.37642596324059, -9.145925436700356 ], "mae": [ 56.90051657422855, 32.6340679203816, 33.45139545063987, 17.303540601591756, 99.67497816826052, 26.55049957328105, 18.453167551253905, 17.999725189059536, 19.958120332818222, 32.88219149993422, 18.35021574319767, 45.40982233567633, 20.603536976603586, 31.539843930700126, 20.582088097418772, 26.58941370511734, 41.86755162852595, 55.65063928967061, 76.18258010906172, 32.286058564977296, 64.25905070944417, 15.922102957259018, 29.55837689316429, 21.50407143891555, 17.528118941254526, 18.093543306792185, 34.79180680365875, 24.042719620782158, 27.250603054568117, 34.03980516416608, 96.18975379479436, 22.861604565400736 ], "mse": [ 3548.2363576415505, 1712.0895387866049, 1517.8747123893359, 409.3252902169399, 13121.878019270513, 858.2894601396152, 516.7541233095616, 472.24619287886117, 509.1641353761361, 1460.2416882016305, 695.6779086813677, 3004.6884049567925, 570.5200012007242, 1916.592756010111, 708.6433122260707, 1455.736752614076, 2000.9902945736094, 3996.3003958199283, 9347.844880663448, 1513.7345213042793, 5366.74793689938, 416.8364319249787, 1201.7670711749167, 589.1660355396747, 510.30893438530364, 437.05541954137357, 1946.6543731073364, 815.3239835990905, 944.6052035403179, 1543.798481458451, 12789.342874886694, 1005.2005848610212 ], "var": [ 2661.365041931439, 5421.957950017695, 1833.64671309238, 1558.402745810097, 4397.135495723191, 1950.7023180846222, 2066.9660940876697, 1211.9658522220063, 1888.632644754162, 3317.127220903406, 1736.3062925436395, 2163.0449525734853, 2086.235385182603, 3303.5138687271287, 2409.641879182367, 2074.88823086325, 3286.8222016495993, 2372.230341409447, 2528.4628396246235, 2967.451023371714, 2646.0777302860392, 2360.2811653070257, 5300.202681646356, 1622.70991434977, 2587.653408266565, 1852.6152174708855, 4723.094264764381, 2362.5648691248784, 1730.1309508384634, 2569.4835946742533, 3932.0016793698815, 1747.1714444340942 ], "zero": [ 0.06245666836548385, 0.10001604510525754, 0.09338940250216228, 0.15118794871514218, 0.033135950521193884, 0.15670960135169615, 0.22286876186466523, 0.09941887693777177, 0.19361284801602358, 0.09733557504571431, 0.12405282918139471, 0.15421464646703387, 0.14838144010715665, 0.06775278459665612, 0.2088405878004294, 0.19160403493507563, 0.07557470436620105, 0.077427411235544, 0.11706097806834448, 0.07738541117853319, 0.17078940473524162, 0.1036569717497122, 0.036681462919541975, 0.06243227335727944, 0.14302826123963236, 0.16313870664502098, 0.0505806510492624, 0.13980686773648712, 0.1464601671701586, 0.12273852739878353, 0.018191306620088332, 0.22395992852847707 ] }, "crps": 23.6307427706869, "crpss": 0.16008913455006324, "rps": 0.39417885110513917, "rpss": 0.12845557260530294, "mean_bias_mm": 0.6475632791609516, "mean_mae_mm": 35.34098470289371, "mean_rmse_mm": 49.022837814755945, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0492828854106238, "zero_fraction": 0.11980909485972392, "correlation": 0.5348632121246387, "pit_histogram": [ 0.05218, 0.08364, 0.12172, 0.14181, 0.14268, 0.10848, 0.09441, 0.08902, 0.08381, 0.08225 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.229392330929427 } }, "distribution_full": { "ethiopia": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0020461644390601, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.012501358212526409 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9923335344996891, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.03169947841682658 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.606459668541521, "area_mean_abs_log": 4.562695920821531 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 1.1175287246342156, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.21005716095050064 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.01053316263981, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.10950237274279696 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.01855392156862745, "area_mean": 0.06900922185402183 } }, "ondj_domain": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0087489792572795, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.017180976742333855 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9624327426806503, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.05747133911128591 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.004893499484588927, "area_mean_abs_log": 7.28459220813402 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 1.2077101044855398, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.28335212372058954 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0204003626123965, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.09720242226812134 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.08455882352941171, "area_mean": 0.10399699513811714 } } } }, "vs": { "training": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 19.12776388619174, 18.362982805862472, 12.3852466014685, 10.789072897805303, 53.659112312112846, 8.754761621645915, 7.333373345518957, 13.419994051484588, 6.945860409523633, 12.729656247718935, 10.474843355986197, 21.157751804387367, 10.63241238916555, 14.617787390152262, 13.530433527949496, 25.880333419781778, 13.972308758723807, 18.594723455503637, 35.358450092433124, 16.01975931248686, 30.920682428418033, 10.173889118946011, 14.354026396163157, 10.278512886961487 ], "crps_clim": [ 12.317536543467577, 23.35796459817729, 12.697045070793552, 12.202051839195779, 80.47285365334993, 11.548375983365016, 12.678451972317543, 13.236171134630228, 9.77344956703739, 11.308094418769002, 10.495885058363076, 19.78743863254775, 11.56945900909618, 16.417052730597515, 12.717960992194332, 23.466029141135742, 10.74931047318028, 14.20169205564696, 38.727205395504946, 14.581796635287228, 32.862113763760696, 10.161605103260042, 18.582117729180727, 10.941519369614019 ], "rps": [ 0.7254310801346399, 0.3377156896324878, 0.5538826931143175, 0.393324062195085, 0.16151089754486764, 0.4021084488690338, 0.32964418241001153, 0.4463130365914237, 0.36810793568242417, 0.5048357743201819, 0.3923965612989171, 0.516533021431117, 0.42618091072184344, 0.39655462534864044, 0.4622256614814153, 0.5722427793805042, 0.4925742343189594, 0.5684984742936853, 0.4476194993420301, 0.4116352155256002, 0.44730893127775856, 0.35060212836319615, 0.24963914794032058, 0.4269774064586878 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.503268882341884, 0.45696255193683133, 0.4925766326091148, 0.42240641708616883, 0.5420235822074022, 0.4714149775295732, 0.455605992500462, 0.4281783876000402, 0.46522974758146945, 0.45001555732494986, 0.3793571949725829, 0.4624359120204484, 0.4373678925332641, 0.4400525449202173, 0.42589693023153363, 0.47068205353537346, 0.4255615214855194, 0.4516170482691049, 0.49843663106201835, 0.41189108424683096, 0.4992305010159512, 0.3787617113337185, 0.4739156168036444, 0.434610826319066 ], "bias": [ 32.007670551088765, -3.623578638486627, 22.002124740238827, 3.1272025791448184, -66.58313341104359, 16.991498743629634, 12.78066639827534, -4.385191602134581, 10.150189232599297, 24.97445456815394, -2.296609407856561, -25.00869732487465, 6.827468837859325, -4.600352867769276, 1.3432791142785165, -23.43474995311184, 27.59980642161516, 31.333543135565346, -39.70634437520659, 5.905871632121263, -36.463858353667234, -0.36391978760047694, 7.185020721900502, 10.595512501568786 ], "mae": [ 34.620774906138635, 25.225477424980532, 23.526890114937185, 15.561235438784786, 68.60985578217102, 17.956370606996597, 14.613309216174889, 18.064434186576598, 13.22121034663525, 26.12709058515792, 14.98887603431503, 27.970974088899688, 15.55915303960109, 20.54461744999023, 19.03004152096163, 32.00605964400865, 27.890975561504284, 32.83094100690415, 46.47362018569254, 24.770797201426262, 41.05557720679765, 13.890312564649184, 20.906178869125732, 16.413708147770787 ], "mse": [ 1836.7973337371864, 1182.3809883942265, 912.1677164263809, 418.90351682450074, 8401.461858085951, 519.7045005529835, 418.88827691544793, 557.8456844816814, 265.23381422371955, 1145.6658817778925, 484.04272070787783, 1644.0798279596684, 408.3631339306485, 985.0770507981912, 637.6108497324443, 1854.0859626868003, 1260.9156127306906, 2089.5055570726145, 4604.180419156767, 1198.074062685061, 3113.279111985832, 440.654654221776, 764.527972564279, 459.84534896282526 ], "var": [ 1636.803374217344, 3495.8056923602567, 1108.5610763678144, 990.8907648771227, 1951.1083828560593, 1248.729853245189, 1191.5846132961972, 767.669273675595, 1130.8195112091876, 1992.112486422352, 1074.582278819165, 1297.1664994118228, 1478.5633802822558, 1824.5305283997147, 1439.3373104132702, 1180.9875641012202, 1939.3549129524736, 1559.8857232132598, 1510.0733246859509, 1760.7215972130841, 1520.8124022161007, 1360.0255772314413, 2736.9637385795163, 1017.7182274091836 ], "zero": [ 0.06438837538668878, 0.0794965013752426, 0.05997186425555942, 0.0972266580739086, 0.025197836646778105, 0.09326276895684843, 0.1339854392324176, 0.06826508232710493, 0.11936610297843858, 0.07276679206606308, 0.0800735281160947, 0.11545635088402463, 0.09448354393619657, 0.06396587614894951, 0.11609063046076559, 0.12305193926729312, 0.0691489091872924, 0.0569110338391704, 0.08480848041771862, 0.06757058300455629, 0.09946419240665491, 0.07588823548009091, 0.03712075046234562, 0.06362663226244872 ] }, "crps": 17.06140577151632, "crpss": 0.07953060442290616, "rps": 0.43266093323654786, "rpss": 0.04538154822603124, "mean_bias_mm": 0.26491139401200375, "mean_mae_mm": 25.494103380425013, "mean_rmse_mm": 38.51584731023898, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0223811053801368, "zero_fraction": 0.08173283779886051, "correlation": 0.22837796700645532, "pit_histogram": [ 0.10177, 0.07965, 0.10195, 0.11445, 0.12257, 0.10995, 0.09538, 0.08122, 0.08959, 0.10346 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.10830748124251942 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 31.382904811985153, 28.116146595229612, 16.54213510731541, 9.898093361164968, 84.49701013754976, 12.312535825289293, 8.100991543557361, 10.58586010060724, 9.561628938738108, 15.654952368483048, 14.612616005699174, 36.202375902976534, 11.023971525629051, 25.540818463312718, 17.995255170589687, 19.16497136005367, 19.805062537435422, 31.496575739712082, 60.14161390860276, 17.558716491846212, 51.347695948884486, 13.05996311059729, 18.767529316494592, 11.605335228215619 ], "crps_clim": [ 18.52395116853421, 36.87672256900793, 18.170789562622396, 12.289909839909377, 126.90605491615098, 17.41989047035546, 17.706970523055745, 12.351304505468207, 13.796387526958524, 13.076262007562349, 14.560429422573055, 34.92849143385597, 13.963924627676032, 30.04724509587627, 16.82171605773241, 18.528924529932958, 12.89918086433115, 23.58960486668408, 67.53597007272384, 11.371976284610398, 55.90409404224628, 13.21381402559538, 23.974094843997456, 11.63096415863434 ], "rps": [ 0.884577832628084, 0.3107579159002482, 0.44711953804242754, 0.354700396504711, 0.11932185047161999, 0.35589249879961155, 0.23467560429548107, 0.34996785103086864, 0.314665346335619, 0.4078892816387941, 0.34434531431721416, 0.5528806604573351, 0.34854640675346715, 0.3642506761765069, 0.4369996244424877, 0.45620036368659483, 0.5532992799101096, 0.7463169249437607, 0.419036830397834, 0.4027696606941601, 0.42723785672088355, 0.3291656126967774, 0.16199092673627677, 0.42706154035166 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5345788969238703, 0.4969529963190181, 0.4649874789243917, 0.41318634740760435, 0.546313799621928, 0.4766642051904933, 0.47169819738486596, 0.3818166848915748, 0.4706484126244913, 0.36582560440255596, 0.35459642943677694, 0.5238068939647562, 0.42423555831428944, 0.4745855744751957, 0.4052259209726985, 0.43061974360983973, 0.4027224211940853, 0.5463137996219276, 0.5329121077567514, 0.33515957321525397, 0.5425588509144538, 0.35778764325037954, 0.505082202846066, 0.40346036499799176 ], "bias": [ 55.550622384121844, -11.674017107673702, 30.13557683727003, 12.081736761642002, -108.0613939385259, 24.910432986759652, 16.357757275237788, 8.382797910342694, 13.72904989581045, 31.154856757903968, -9.361435074554397, -47.25758591676596, 15.490790439162534, -18.391184112845906, -9.1611723544257, -14.681588864917181, 40.49662785248124, 55.053294981888804, -77.76897499015448, 29.92298512626038, -66.90931538144943, 1.7665976003366697, 24.087971122611492, 16.32911121197124 ], "mae": [ 55.550622384121844, 36.05901446602815, 32.08938545360025, 16.33611972670671, 108.1800258710489, 25.591562754711497, 17.510333520188464, 16.927547513214233, 18.890132567794065, 31.583027817759135, 18.456531966601446, 47.631897490215096, 19.1869681465363, 32.301462997164634, 21.071585340959984, 25.92373818968619, 40.49662785248124, 55.053294981888804, 78.21981883707384, 30.625300732472652, 66.99110114231569, 16.176135298275224, 27.686037391616086, 20.189240066682736 ], "mse": [ 3469.2950354173167, 2022.6611465746562, 1430.2488791668284, 367.4914426644569, 14777.679525055913, 823.2732726649217, 473.5578508462881, 416.55457053407997, 454.65772507036934, 1439.7103066789305, 743.0719248069431, 3180.0458301147055, 498.07623246230827, 2015.6697835782654, 741.1901943420523, 1401.258678843877, 1944.4603605535615, 4093.0811702683413, 9585.495869256238, 1391.7972302807602, 5759.370950554333, 448.4567290036124, 1118.4276245625335, 522.5701204121636 ], "var": [ 2598.2958589636196, 5470.668893619877, 1833.3019490677789, 1523.6787424349038, 3327.513142883367, 1917.4446678577558, 2059.021669296262, 1200.2144622055898, 1827.4743994225892, 3185.134763908482, 1702.521232948765, 2068.5744029428897, 2084.175651256811, 3172.3009192204304, 2335.772610716305, 2117.3836894267774, 3185.7730794031386, 2343.804375829022, 2411.029341985874, 2940.8296870021563, 2468.664584878183, 2378.4152803748866, 5436.997967962165, 1563.9512848367133 ], "zero": [ 0.06611030151989596, 0.10865850915283724, 0.09986765622354231, 0.15342185959655358, 0.023252007366280445, 0.15036729823083891, 0.22486842799433357, 0.09358259489011078, 0.2010962987209585, 0.09698376580877226, 0.12436111989174092, 0.163945445194741, 0.14580757440481334, 0.07160285610423064, 0.2149089223021066, 0.20363961043038722, 0.07685335044484994, 0.07437963559295216, 0.11533046098350448, 0.07908407566116334, 0.1726616262465419, 0.10423192183838702, 0.040129601490596495, 0.05793890030782699 ] }, "crps": 23.957281645832055, "crpss": 0.09607766412175689, "rps": 0.40623624141385556, "rpss": 0.10238414325864442, "mean_bias_mm": 0.5076475584370055, "mean_mae_mm": 35.780313021214305, "mean_rmse_mm": 49.63118242501107, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0170643624786868, "zero_fraction": 0.11929515918324857, "correlation": 0.343054138315855, "pit_histogram": [ 0.0591, 0.09623, 0.11973, 0.12739, 0.14399, 0.10183, 0.08854, 0.08033, 0.08718, 0.09568 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.18588486234816715 } }, "operational": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 10.115012715107419, 17.040491952941792, 29.71695281511572, 9.130475413570917, 10.720333390343388, 11.168374074438695, 47.498907575249255, 18.99889362034589 ], "crps_clim": [ 9.895516071070114, 14.17903530722128, 38.54879256346864, 8.382690795432643, 12.100478712529222, 9.990734718607943, 72.45749800359884, 14.992025314000559 ], "rps": [ 0.3872314004087436, 0.5562128391000462, 0.37288673561026764, 0.35699749596717684, 0.43065605760130526, 0.415748835394675, 0.268442920352004, 0.5891003834017619 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.39574475776394596, 0.4437047305666722, 0.546311199561453, 0.36237075360897236, 0.43798495130070614, 0.3932407178861523, 0.5285945268864339, 0.42293901304422793 ], "bias": [ 2.5071674210610997, -8.90959567988796, -34.14039572283939, 10.087479995779505, 8.82089489546738, 16.770049549194294, -55.14509471027323, -16.633759550278015 ], "mae": [ 13.349685092352415, 22.14057679171903, 36.643094422793716, 13.980269173746647, 18.860454598315663, 20.07070346300478, 61.05994804550662, 23.60737284352231 ], "mse": [ 318.3148515753129, 917.6759364977212, 2164.1536435883036, 392.7009703352467, 687.5770746315554, 727.2941276583638, 6922.366720651483, 1238.66690698317 ], "var": [ 1481.979366604676, 1065.2539187987716, 2357.056366040912, 1312.269828944422, 1034.2840708461263, 1596.1982773310024, 2493.0573063236866, 975.6742768197282 ], "zero": [ 0.10664305380726175, 0.1328473091538457, 0.0465172402648143, 0.1143292469746617, 0.12246844583502127, 0.08897319679638462, 0.03387203617595507, 0.14931476952828787 ] }, "crps": 19.298680194639132, "crpss": 0.14487841412802405, "rps": 0.42215958347949756, "rpss": 0.043505732117666174, "mean_bias_mm": -9.58040672522204, "mean_mae_mm": 26.214013053870147, "mean_rmse_mm": 40.87901391900427, "spread_error_ratio": 0.9598103754616194, "zero_fraction": 0.09937066231702903, "correlation": 0.4987318673442816, "pit_histogram": [ 0.03599, 0.03146, 0.08219, 0.10919, 0.12727, 0.11729, 0.10749, 0.10224, 0.09538, 0.1915 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.3099765302159144 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 16.28351826478155, 10.560234651200822, 29.282832755044375, 14.125619634460591, 11.935505291778963, 17.00271319505126, 71.08805651952774, 18.27555388672373 ], "crps_clim": [ 16.023613765163336, 12.042589782487557, 48.89791233340558, 12.005332284732548, 16.60873516709748, 15.463955391266797, 122.93071411734311, 15.359489400606916 ], "rps": [ 0.38515094101976194, 0.32567710437452374, 0.19782647784793778, 0.39695556817972494, 0.3864583402878764, 0.47923349519063907, 0.08236259676892062, 0.48318669779017004 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4012574985052145, 0.3824738866553415, 0.5455702609428927, 0.3608387586327424, 0.5032563034561837, 0.45825636877918047, 0.5532043323522959, 0.38836007080680135 ], "bias": [ -6.160000795693094, 13.707997245189322, -30.113874224540993, 20.973265228270378, 24.65945098696204, 31.10843817539511, -89.09149981121276, -10.030508826994462 ], "mae": [ 17.468144943602212, 16.36708054860185, 35.50150303539204, 22.488761350537946, 25.448634289697804, 32.557511464647334, 93.19021220063884, 23.365503507876934 ], "mse": [ 524.6362569994413, 363.32272320321937, 2047.277258525273, 746.0137041127492, 834.0209847284686, 1476.08089075214, 12102.636263263978, 1049.1469632305652 ], "var": [ 2476.798426224037, 1789.2752905327022, 4478.229074214402, 2269.9071029776374, 1733.669902986972, 2583.7049723037007, 4417.931747991822, 1696.4000806756246 ], "zero": [ 0.14590066872343474, 0.1715894961329585, 0.04299720198428015, 0.14753544404319588, 0.1616545737728777, 0.13109884036356842, 0.024318600045764586, 0.22244754872922945 ] }, "crps": 23.569254274821127, "crpss": 0.27292511004068376, "rps": 0.3421064026824443, "rpss": 0.23832853519346675, "mean_bias_mm": -5.618341502828057, "mean_mae_mm": 33.298418917624375, "mean_rmse_mm": 48.917194120288414, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0584388562504436, "zero_fraction": 0.13094279672441367, "correlation": 0.869471947817564, "pit_histogram": [ 0.00717, 0.0409, 0.13231, 0.15396, 0.14614, 0.12573, 0.11601, 0.10624, 0.07258, 0.09896 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.36076385641988806 } }, "full": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 19.63218326145206, 17.643552206149128, 13.550585077842493, 11.011046843728154, 48.13015966647118, 9.423903676831127, 8.081044809999346, 13.447417075657151, 7.427143989662935, 13.637596157157668, 10.323610167262043, 19.803789024567955, 10.957450106812999, 14.638885993565413, 13.580218031518378, 25.695243475704665, 14.990071968645633, 19.131134349239204, 34.656071001953315, 15.087232926357444, 28.659981341130894, 9.716323217779282, 14.440706973302088, 11.005975259489517, 10.492150736107776, 16.563246161676624, 28.492923975903672, 9.538635366208624, 10.649525289003256, 11.945284988411542, 47.48301057129369, 18.063761222334588 ], "crps_clim": [ 12.783782020353424, 22.511377726630435, 13.486233432588588, 12.69944443375219, 76.94122015896143, 12.20106868173247, 13.309810711893718, 13.382499762169186, 10.510860190270792, 11.948508158258385, 10.507324363236147, 19.219499581536, 12.15624842534919, 16.33110258238101, 12.70802225555305, 23.51737823123135, 11.65595466198018, 14.642515311603015, 37.809037033490284, 13.847526321731513, 31.179523394808456, 10.189531034239177, 17.927950590511536, 11.88010054552358, 10.658915041984727, 14.411604379011287, 38.49497020875638, 9.149304055972436, 12.957927427879538, 10.730182113419154, 72.85260912174846, 14.681246973704665 ], "rps": [ 0.7329622959260237, 0.33364342283853055, 0.5932941007034973, 0.393232775366919, 0.14579109106319582, 0.4384423581728024, 0.34962317860606656, 0.43488872458207245, 0.38299127959211404, 0.5202229808387002, 0.4008323147251273, 0.4918760046190705, 0.4273093019953535, 0.41682726127088376, 0.4738624270913863, 0.5645496487744794, 0.5201041144303176, 0.5946269287569386, 0.4476112558617098, 0.405064712804604, 0.4338611923464642, 0.35625137003059043, 0.2439840266158724, 0.41613296480508044, 0.40937226064124776, 0.5273683277211638, 0.3471648178049306, 0.36575351102838755, 0.4062543676437588, 0.438586468811137, 0.2589544881355449, 0.5708686555717278 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5099729077980537, 0.45223457520613386, 0.5042070796721, 0.4223319286224781, 0.5541349166685237, 0.4891341241458317, 0.46260551253834703, 0.41790847293771854, 0.47376507250073746, 0.44625492156786695, 0.3665742104158703, 0.46239929772210925, 0.44039805540566207, 0.4473385695884163, 0.41904326359193766, 0.4782106643198007, 0.43099085878539034, 0.4595141391239318, 0.5079472946014302, 0.4035582725551801, 0.49665385808099777, 0.3644779560242052, 0.4652165601075734, 0.42884001042431774, 0.4110384555452049, 0.43924247151695794, 0.5531184205365902, 0.36375626291307794, 0.4448249078788689, 0.3952033064964951, 0.5357304983934386, 0.4226854013145511 ], "bias": [ 34.44500600727318, -0.05367955667456435, 24.371192574405562, 5.398606886442785, -59.91531799820941, 19.30972339150562, 14.783062568388873, -1.9274838939365897, 12.428983615353893, 27.46016274827759, 0.34348768319073814, -22.217658199976906, 9.124156737246967, -1.430420719603916, 4.135009200144372, -21.167712966573188, 29.996832762681166, 33.77376448048955, -36.497477069899, 8.9709390262387, -33.2819750252839, 1.9995102678335337, 10.785480463636993, 12.642288794891751, 4.973284178794515, -7.269373588844532, -31.5800971751516, 12.744497774768153, 10.878115653556879, 19.93096490796155, -55.517526442315436, -15.217054304000797 ], "mae": [ 36.046180850485406, 24.056208848351712, 25.730049815759912, 16.494890221084734, 62.35845115545012, 19.816673166481507, 16.10979891126767, 18.434761248281934, 14.911758760544302, 28.069357581006017, 15.167308279483711, 26.168582720774136, 17.043533105037177, 20.58855235617998, 19.284927279607235, 32.265568395210046, 30.20515834206098, 34.54389291172313, 46.04962080681878, 24.17031861568635, 38.642711789415785, 13.618536801001994, 22.023623831274584, 18.08815052858867, 14.4431463551386, 22.06254974544633, 35.013747331639735, 15.326301971068016, 19.3614029670102, 22.114345198569087, 61.2198167743658, 22.639470821757577 ], "mse": [ 1924.07336448213, 1036.3141238043474, 1062.2775906601123, 458.6787697802812, 7415.567326969197, 608.3356154819411, 494.8629094783035, 589.9439479939515, 326.2240092143954, 1270.689684441713, 454.75138560673275, 1486.6210231076734, 500.73631691852006, 938.7665281066885, 635.8843783688848, 1851.5087480338464, 1423.8313004796817, 2151.501680019004, 4509.8116698167905, 1103.5587473825783, 2802.8748491207716, 370.0236477995954, 854.6727561809779, 564.8642331014934, 341.46310100711946, 878.8031239675296, 1976.2724731187623, 433.0888277098779, 699.1991285065926, 813.8375462012377, 6981.06585847121, 1124.1314203355246 ], "var": [ 1768.4860194091443, 3716.2465105538463, 1194.215730269967, 1083.1366935087642, 2539.312568839936, 1362.3807333851587, 1277.2133874815067, 833.99707474695, 1242.9759935432055, 2195.4356938345004, 1179.1023874543637, 1451.4003360098734, 1585.320052778541, 2026.5792663611956, 1597.5189034508076, 1241.679347951668, 2143.652915256716, 1696.5690563750134, 1651.6040175378425, 1933.653073362442, 1689.5482862354402, 1439.822144697902, 2932.5309810473823, 1103.9565996737012, 1658.0071119210397, 1166.000256309141, 2602.1538850043194, 1461.928523901845, 1091.998570334271, 1721.873971423779, 2321.9896422127217, 1068.1895905665467 ], "zero": [ 0.05804720134423997, 0.07057524448322612, 0.05956399692208402, 0.09343458645134564, 0.02573749385537997, 0.09338365242119862, 0.13402746245847819, 0.06578632963636795, 0.11596378834635233, 0.07169078162836064, 0.07691333051387089, 0.10419591308457804, 0.09324562006386454, 0.0564906500901417, 0.11375773094072257, 0.11561469942939252, 0.06542799827003619, 0.056699369931084986, 0.07968133585866792, 0.06126542936551372, 0.09261399077876832, 0.07244437099948954, 0.032718214715054254, 0.05941843760749803, 0.101500786505902, 0.1300980364414743, 0.047618539649693335, 0.1039972980773632, 0.11225103739608809, 0.0816599093812814, 0.023167343194131343, 0.15329521269583926 ] }, "crps": 17.43437077853812, "crpss": 0.11060937912635538, "rps": 0.43257214466174054, "rpss": 0.04333333935440575, "mean_bias_mm": 0.388102899456642, "mean_mae_mm": 26.00216867145535, "mean_rmse_mm": 38.763802415102525, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0595195200781875, "zero_fraction": 0.08194643101679655, "correlation": 0.2873455340478461, "pit_histogram": [ 0.10185, 0.07276, 0.10103, 0.11824, 0.12751, 0.10944, 0.09525, 0.08415, 0.08562, 0.10414 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.12442487174388656 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 31.674099262733115, 26.4674375734801, 16.81866699116805, 10.15236078926594, 75.90577291785405, 12.402524890750113, 8.360850726477954, 10.983770217666155, 9.614249564162122, 16.024716534379756, 14.434923765636466, 34.915080891796414, 11.191631844739357, 25.396553535495986, 17.86661734894992, 19.560645975070265, 20.26025285147028, 31.092036296119467, 58.37497020245924, 18.472421004088083, 48.636159019149865, 13.054523276897207, 20.063499497546673, 11.919233182669755, 16.486237045846128, 11.164013407231666, 28.711038336920243, 14.671895905393809, 12.660455336247539, 17.614637003675696, 73.64892387881349, 18.362095357847828 ], "crps_clim": [ 18.971560801065813, 35.6367147291537, 18.636916636476265, 13.008245857985397, 122.09582939281907, 17.78179646878491, 17.998112084481825, 13.076782675945864, 14.529083489713967, 13.24418302159305, 14.803193391112085, 34.07821828870073, 14.676722636955915, 29.418403592206143, 16.790159921611743, 19.251560181834897, 13.33628914107295, 23.960236587257803, 65.78672153414695, 11.854513425492197, 53.7131677313048, 13.396064979901809, 23.74020434353359, 12.389359531750223, 16.618238808520573, 13.04598803914388, 49.69954751558125, 12.770847456632547, 18.242786444806796, 16.533666942942173, 125.40466313928738, 15.824528080373357 ], "rps": [ 0.8686415880134345, 0.30576721316232125, 0.4683443124217098, 0.36315852439814944, 0.11785660598770403, 0.3714033505914101, 0.24741630527808703, 0.3615984387658486, 0.30562282047364886, 0.4085026039863649, 0.3390278243602546, 0.551796364759834, 0.34770147082991026, 0.36971925494142716, 0.43592338206660325, 0.45092398314262383, 0.5776039059701362, 0.736097550922136, 0.41775204839899704, 0.40963355805257373, 0.4329290868716133, 0.33580611019578016, 0.18101010780503213, 0.4144478430559298, 0.3867704841842244, 0.3277862573827632, 0.18577658485670498, 0.39197487438275835, 0.3870109238413387, 0.4784361535756562, 0.07834981461433217, 0.48402740008150763 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.546221849426887, 0.5006209898385597, 0.47463997727575263, 0.41815000367394756, 0.5629552549427683, 0.49498688948174796, 0.477643485597547, 0.3820838914918218, 0.4675924281943521, 0.34140859723145817, 0.32837245319421293, 0.5374315918996531, 0.42791161191971255, 0.478997744827492, 0.3859727031231156, 0.43079003405987637, 0.4091224667534369, 0.5629552549427682, 0.5473749777298041, 0.31762780372493987, 0.5567250638845919, 0.3314668314118201, 0.5013535927665776, 0.3938931012781259, 0.4005237610004716, 0.37374789498522504, 0.5536094138716743, 0.347079043610374, 0.5202270950400264, 0.4553182914080023, 0.5617070387526095, 0.38432907468585364 ], "bias": [ 57.35526285752499, -8.784540644003275, 31.04557856398192, 12.957680494386837, -99.11010701413738, 25.814055525702585, 16.920098858463653, 9.245910536353646, 14.86200380030235, 32.80320230676056, -8.136598164863367, -44.89276391639384, 16.53035026608318, -14.95244812319483, -7.6004626368260935, -13.681827610499633, 42.37338773686199, 55.78732660315295, -75.02304057820284, 32.1713370991017, -64.0355846823623, 3.2789749644835795, 27.88470325856865, 17.51722192454021, -4.405694427683414, 15.472654218729307, -26.29915552453274, 23.37060294584567, 26.289839728144347, 33.29309706667907, -92.8611077639729, -9.366903130418326 ], "mae": [ 57.35526285752499, 32.83656359283584, 33.27452998710686, 17.10714202287495, 99.21633125795367, 26.396084237804878, 18.01673115938931, 17.90576725539834, 19.863511645886664, 33.05629281377243, 18.30572500805404, 45.41874355309852, 20.505260273088766, 31.43771216115015, 20.504875777224875, 26.545078483350647, 42.37338773686199, 55.78732660315295, 76.05965019484213, 32.740963100921164, 64.12961044843959, 15.947183118835454, 31.502043695288158, 21.34948769775433, 17.546992721906722, 17.99451987970821, 34.13207461659106, 24.143223128660185, 26.981110251513154, 34.06292811210807, 95.6948112412391, 22.97812810723573 ], "mse": [ 3605.2103536842624, 1721.76235957301, 1505.0833810408897, 400.57060766154666, 13026.871670228058, 845.7950164885347, 496.77241826323745, 466.65153582083093, 503.455861151459, 1474.5554734181007, 702.5883502115266, 3008.712439497012, 561.4706130836694, 1910.7752029528167, 706.3964674036419, 1458.010729970736, 2052.5669175525927, 4022.581954326509, 9330.356987965903, 1552.040216653805, 5344.788155800103, 417.4131551603123, 1384.6384348188506, 580.1793869903388, 511.3356027163845, 431.29802147047513, 1887.2257056465767, 823.4437594411697, 925.3635364455537, 1548.7721982712656, 12694.47778788065, 1018.4536828147615 ], "var": [ 2827.5054729414555, 5758.124302968268, 1931.42159836345, 1639.433725196995, 4508.668588967887, 2066.535472795606, 2167.5705473243456, 1278.2777016242133, 1990.1648622859457, 3509.107353343375, 1825.7374223668733, 2280.600380266514, 2228.7792611203013, 3568.274462945606, 2558.1587054551333, 2178.0025798411634, 3598.09568847765, 2517.1875413764355, 2634.308535461238, 3156.149724426337, 2758.1468040982813, 2491.638806182111, 5844.179958898174, 1719.8730482638516, 2783.6681002754594, 1960.345577719914, 5061.332646980512, 2511.8249144749725, 1813.1921557796047, 2705.9690875543965, 4025.3804153492265, 1843.0434351027754 ], "zero": [ 0.07467053473247262, 0.11654284030235267, 0.11434901282355794, 0.17146193225694661, 0.03431541398343338, 0.180804539721465, 0.25586605418924846, 0.11850835753503268, 0.22442851477912715, 0.11913354157458231, 0.14211044482349863, 0.17191531527523554, 0.1718521020940106, 0.08087080955774961, 0.22690570768223614, 0.21500069197773722, 0.08910686752238944, 0.09679077294352911, 0.12899494769892592, 0.08772953786197707, 0.1787186630989757, 0.11954930669309088, 0.043966149081514326, 0.07589976975437357, 0.16327694082594627, 0.18288427161038412, 0.057526217316257074, 0.15628058295807407, 0.16868564419668797, 0.13842857275824122, 0.019957742461038857, 0.2537384646398608 ] }, "crps": 23.655071701000082, "crpss": 0.1592244079050691, "rps": 0.391838023355338, "rpss": 0.1336312317638556, "mean_bias_mm": 0.8069704543305081, "mean_mae_mm": 35.34903289817416, "mean_rmse_mm": 49.02793144741723, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0801303378092504, "zero_fraction": 0.13688344577281103, "correlation": 0.5297412004457328, "pit_histogram": [ 0.03937, 0.07628, 0.12012, 0.14352, 0.15325, 0.1149, 0.09914, 0.08976, 0.08347, 0.08019 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.26358339711325596 } }, "distribution_full": { "ethiopia": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0023663054204273, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.013487218968395331 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 0.992504341854795, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.019434883268243712 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.5757075271840564, "area_mean_abs_log": 4.887569131067775 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 1.11578125114446, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.20627342129269216 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0140975000593626, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.11013283707753574 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.02174019607843138, "area_mean": 0.07478910005927107 } }, "ondj_domain": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0138581223212613, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.02078035926233074 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9723163404753228, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.03168573411484904 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean_abs_log": 8.224209267033979 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 1.199854296165159, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.26806921982322046 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0304454889397288, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.09958036161541033 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.11754901960784309, "area_mean": 0.12107134605120425 } } } }, "sqrt_mvs": { "training": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 18.928790385442486, 18.334457560791435, 12.314764666188482, 10.38039631492487, 54.432170682510424, 8.610741960367989, 7.256318177156359, 12.92633576669208, 6.687988051973607, 12.609987650095894, 10.35513798955813, 21.30105339781353, 10.165430747144956, 14.636396693134497, 13.48459405428044, 25.43725260307503, 13.625106533495934, 18.718581435020052, 35.88676728695022, 15.689031730916273, 31.607866650986466, 10.049672712984242, 13.612509435722721, 9.82582792008943 ], "crps_clim": [ 12.317536543467577, 23.35796459817729, 12.697045070793552, 12.202051839195779, 80.47285365334993, 11.548375983365016, 12.678451972317543, 13.236171134630228, 9.77344956703739, 11.308094418769002, 10.495885058363076, 19.78743863254775, 11.56945900909618, 16.417052730597515, 12.717960992194332, 23.466029141135742, 10.74931047318028, 14.20169205564696, 38.727205395504946, 14.581796635287228, 32.862113763760696, 10.161605103260042, 18.582117729180727, 10.941519369614019 ], "rps": [ 0.7239841531633101, 0.33478970850292966, 0.5545718586913513, 0.3865296850129244, 0.15897516948616436, 0.3903997296823534, 0.3263899464146824, 0.42207310780246193, 0.35749463317841523, 0.49742685387179336, 0.3799471817699147, 0.4999694130511005, 0.41019948192803124, 0.4021341460450379, 0.4534023464498584, 0.5530105680336005, 0.49363126397552337, 0.5774032860032154, 0.4378678433365634, 0.41352306082452495, 0.4466668757040003, 0.3533135889646013, 0.24363467414050508, 0.410083265925042 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.503268882341884, 0.45696255193683133, 0.4925766326091148, 0.42240641708616883, 0.5420235822074022, 0.4714149775295732, 0.455605992500462, 0.4281783876000402, 0.46522974758146945, 0.45001555732494986, 0.3793571949725829, 0.4624359120204484, 0.4373678925332641, 0.4400525449202173, 0.42589693023153363, 0.47068205353537346, 0.4255615214855194, 0.4516170482691049, 0.49843663106201835, 0.41189108424683096, 0.4992305010159512, 0.3787617113337185, 0.4739156168036444, 0.434610826319066 ], "bias": [ 31.299797588871677, -5.418295278293223, 22.05196718571496, 3.077608476241671, -67.54216087915707, 17.069853423226068, 13.20744451696316, -4.268453316652028, 10.395154930425551, 24.535086548845225, -2.3629758510405403, -25.0789683900261, 6.795916498459099, -5.242932773070974, 1.1743890535523924, -23.495509353040354, 27.08129243805836, 30.91586345413168, -40.366501092907505, 5.253217016243913, -37.027427103657445, -0.7016293929563531, 5.394271127700481, 10.333919109905693 ], "mae": [ 33.93935030269512, 25.003358692083, 23.550219060706358, 15.447457983601492, 69.18739856831192, 18.082757509972, 15.014468754958495, 17.74441647420767, 13.284610651652773, 25.710879222201456, 14.941630890601537, 28.047774108103912, 15.524452676952663, 20.55492652710258, 19.170828216871612, 31.87979064825699, 27.357926335331424, 32.404299395450884, 46.936617766408084, 24.32785549084378, 41.53297718877362, 13.867314728575224, 19.70415079101481, 16.209143556078708 ], "mse": [ 1759.4553033455888, 1202.0452439693672, 916.4600605513544, 417.25142356952034, 8539.159537782609, 532.3584368022125, 449.5150650970571, 542.6684549146528, 268.89086876691226, 1116.896107471312, 482.2172281953175, 1640.2700804637643, 408.74678612962197, 997.0933056053202, 643.3819747582718, 1842.177438765251, 1216.568667799016, 2030.5819570449971, 4667.802919791506, 1165.86146862079, 3179.3159675711227, 442.1082994680557, 683.5435404573517, 453.3979019886498 ], "var": [ 1493.0860926451464, 3034.6224894328934, 992.4080000294695, 885.2690476995004, 1902.443921267356, 1118.5932067441624, 1063.713853171799, 674.211885410871, 1011.9020526745471, 1813.5957660228096, 949.3209925087164, 1128.2124182861262, 1270.1852070907244, 1622.1082347689, 1292.5349810600308, 1036.8290222809553, 1825.7061111460891, 1401.165476558959, 1326.3684734355122, 1600.830173262996, 1320.3404994553568, 1189.258788037574, 2435.6503970906306, 899.9625855134478 ], "zero": [ 0.019035570014950383, 0.018212545594555436, 0.01186745542991368, 0.03547146069202333, 0.009790672376136594, 0.0198725956110245, 0.03541641880156675, 0.010127133015846822, 0.03672100866921224, 0.01842024743275812, 0.017911896655396938, 0.03210467245744983, 0.020394538383446417, 0.012882368154469047, 0.04164466895881391, 0.046654591982932425, 0.0228325295220058, 0.011056859721896233, 0.029095046068021074, 0.01827899066761616, 0.03654646323226314, 0.02092781285941523, 0.008105657835869633, 0.01269096567384776 ] }, "crps": 16.953215850304815, "crpss": 0.08536749223383577, "rps": 0.42614257674824607, "rpss": 0.059763580207576994, "mean_bias_mm": -0.12162800260256941, "mean_mae_mm": 25.392691897531506, "mean_rmse_mm": 38.51285934535894, "spread_error_ratio": 0.9670179871716985, "zero_fraction": 0.022752590408809642, "correlation": 0.2255840845285299, "pit_histogram": [ 0.07158, 0.11099, 0.12242, 0.11892, 0.1115, 0.09744, 0.08946, 0.07981, 0.089, 0.10888 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.14542884944258572 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 30.847247282970233, 28.418860642991216, 16.32322189497545, 9.372625080858775, 86.14601629573299, 12.181802320495782, 7.950622220729084, 10.030201892340061, 9.121992318826882, 15.280066274289403, 14.320551242583562, 36.75840774904427, 10.487649878108499, 25.63057544151482, 17.86249542616686, 18.58310822600954, 18.996008134729017, 31.75054063950219, 61.837209883563034, 16.536388489095355, 52.815362620156804, 12.597582330255408, 17.364273499225753, 10.924894919145654 ], "crps_clim": [ 18.52395116853421, 36.87672256900793, 18.170789562622396, 12.289909839909377, 126.90605491615098, 17.41989047035546, 17.706970523055745, 12.351304505468207, 13.796387526958524, 13.076262007562349, 14.560429422573055, 34.92849143385597, 13.963924627676032, 30.04724509587627, 16.82171605773241, 18.528924529932958, 12.89918086433115, 23.58960486668408, 67.53597007272384, 11.371976284610398, 55.90409404224628, 13.21381402559538, 23.974094843997456, 11.63096415863434 ], "rps": [ 0.8810562982330208, 0.3212355143020257, 0.43769596171499814, 0.35073728367964596, 0.12613699202630152, 0.3548813955703003, 0.2518852398052357, 0.3386476442060485, 0.31605160264287546, 0.3990761029123359, 0.33785326394083487, 0.5611488619928006, 0.3396839749762309, 0.36154954751917356, 0.43272198738726975, 0.4488207737640355, 0.545409105937021, 0.7597513530974815, 0.4221737355616877, 0.3905194559835014, 0.4386258713215067, 0.32312596938416926, 0.1640937649799243, 0.41943604587359784 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5345788969238703, 0.4969529963190181, 0.4649874789243917, 0.41318634740760435, 0.546313799621928, 0.4766642051904933, 0.47169819738486596, 0.3818166848915748, 0.4706484126244913, 0.36582560440255596, 0.35459642943677694, 0.5238068939647562, 0.42423555831428944, 0.4745855744751957, 0.4052259209726985, 0.43061974360983973, 0.4027224211940853, 0.5463137996219276, 0.5329121077567514, 0.33515957321525397, 0.5425588509144538, 0.35778764325037954, 0.505082202846066, 0.40346036499799176 ], "bias": [ 54.28246324225108, -14.441659973858938, 29.895584378039, 11.891845888874688, -109.38263166646252, 25.116315968864633, 17.361772009941518, 8.418797415546196, 14.184538937869256, 30.406225518871587, -9.55621843401976, -47.50193754475883, 15.670424346220663, -19.605143480198752, -9.474480578482277, -14.753707204922733, 39.44099855856688, 54.0486862524234, -79.05484764758165, 28.567677334755366, -67.87102828015699, 1.0164260037445991, 20.411583024960727, 15.79934227312768 ], "mae": [ 54.28246324225108, 36.346629805422346, 31.797005510380988, 16.105190557610364, 109.44410657440302, 25.823642253280315, 18.423810410144295, 16.538127298775755, 18.901675011254763, 30.849915927040684, 18.256207996172733, 47.91347449665783, 19.153699326941542, 32.58427955037451, 21.44597289251684, 25.74466451177631, 39.44099855856688, 54.0486862524234, 79.33355452326359, 29.430582602818333, 67.93702906504203, 15.95535140728342, 25.015935121051548, 19.68782704015631 ], "mse": [ 3322.5608311454607, 2091.9955624496074, 1429.7449448392515, 365.9351305553227, 15078.175706618787, 850.6711989572628, 532.7265662770159, 405.01636333962676, 458.8020400450327, 1393.8202346309022, 736.1506535617582, 3182.8201455341436, 503.49465062707407, 2053.0969046673404, 754.8709798332442, 1382.033748916676, 1856.1316264945394, 3961.5809189532624, 9732.744770012112, 1301.6790125246644, 5890.456978777485, 443.2308520399248, 919.727610032609, 503.44766390455436 ], "var": [ 2381.018308443746, 4744.805711711963, 1597.4829357656972, 1331.5365935053787, 3321.1178554592916, 1667.0363852523462, 1803.3062857183309, 1019.8158747657162, 1592.9267213611488, 2897.1637557189665, 1462.8280778497876, 1747.2441867321281, 1779.057758814768, 2802.2316384306564, 2051.9743998612767, 1822.6994024829662, 3060.9649694088453, 2034.7118861179408, 2065.5986528375615, 2644.904217532648, 2128.64892977391, 2044.65177471907, 4858.177561926987, 1356.0959329274715 ], "zero": [ 0.02407082615699145, 0.030390458388747293, 0.022128683178076265, 0.07236245725280975, 0.011445307621314094, 0.04023783835782855, 0.0635068628188752, 0.019987828372907437, 0.07467060571777163, 0.02745401148888981, 0.03547384957822319, 0.05408070323130785, 0.03413212920950643, 0.016297898497827274, 0.08917180653780292, 0.09140352444677563, 0.02771370180027651, 0.019350556016824467, 0.04721801341587544, 0.02830189474320248, 0.07799958389807286, 0.03116380084345323, 0.006447766704968243, 0.0076281456380928436 ] }, "crps": 23.83907102930461, "crpss": 0.10053782025285474, "rps": 0.4050965727838343, "rpss": 0.10490234456480407, "mean_bias_mm": -0.21370723568271485, "mean_mae_mm": 35.60253458065037, "mean_rmse_mm": 49.64495404651651, "spread_error_ratio": 0.9573770262445693, "zero_fraction": 0.03969326057985087, "correlation": 0.3425481219356972, "pit_histogram": [ 0.09046, 0.11147, 0.10904, 0.11221, 0.12018, 0.0918, 0.08557, 0.08072, 0.09381, 0.10474 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.11527629893540946 } }, "operational": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 10.010855210343943, 16.508798698756824, 29.980365271795918, 8.837990110336216, 10.749289494694693, 10.845307636108018, 48.25433654634348, 18.61968914654572 ], "crps_clim": [ 9.895516071070114, 14.17903530722128, 38.54879256346864, 8.382690795432643, 12.100478712529222, 9.990734718607943, 72.45749800359884, 14.992025314000559 ], "rps": [ 0.39149696444544335, 0.5431103284829256, 0.3622310692900551, 0.3581119682762849, 0.42372589784051945, 0.41380707853766163, 0.2608358955134559, 0.5728508930153053 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.39574475776394596, 0.4437047305666722, 0.546311199561453, 0.36237075360897236, 0.43798495130070614, 0.3932407178861523, 0.5285945268864339, 0.42293901304422793 ], "bias": [ 2.1689890944879657, -8.91303575025128, -35.19672694834881, 9.773214347029963, 8.834262034164444, 16.225716098340556, -56.76329612054292, -16.474894050110176 ], "mae": [ 13.396488189875376, 22.018344096567116, 37.420089724589744, 13.683305704826038, 18.945373351999947, 19.643839938755388, 62.21301452981565, 23.508961302389764 ], "mse": [ 321.702764276515, 911.9063328005407, 2230.6129598957673, 377.0766043239574, 703.3196071783585, 699.0921119037466, 7123.614150559851, 1227.2612480811429 ], "var": [ 1304.3467691052942, 943.646976166851, 2148.8397598303204, 1165.7490947105393, 906.0320154249229, 1410.8775721287934, 2309.62709777099, 862.878070609528 ], "zero": [ 0.038081006686877264, 0.04826663023296068, 0.012214737928654368, 0.03522414147598043, 0.04023425711634046, 0.027379129314150638, 0.0076430281297581145, 0.05053874176174739 ] }, "crps": 19.2258290143656, "crpss": 0.14810643885198693, "rps": 0.4157712619252064, "rpss": 0.057979862724167996, "mean_bias_mm": -10.043221411903783, "mean_mae_mm": 26.35367710485238, "mean_rmse_mm": 41.22284830500538, "spread_error_ratio": 0.9016487739685951, "zero_fraction": 0.03244770908080867, "correlation": 0.5018208624949112, "pit_histogram": [ 0.00743, 0.05251, 0.10401, 0.11929, 0.1174, 0.10555, 0.09901, 0.10355, 0.0975, 0.19374 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.2870952466855632 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 16.122665417721123, 9.777298239278725, 30.051798721719386, 13.430479056545805, 11.895344938173217, 16.440752224093465, 72.76876824402642, 17.722881343001063 ], "crps_clim": [ 16.023613765163336, 12.042589782487557, 48.89791233340558, 12.005332284732548, 16.60873516709748, 15.463955391266797, 122.93071411734311, 15.359489400606916 ], "rps": [ 0.38408083340334664, 0.32276109759876775, 0.20483415052015955, 0.3864673540539712, 0.3977328251193814, 0.47561595736135837, 0.08511659512914183, 0.4741793187859879 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4012574985052145, 0.3824738866553415, 0.5455702609428927, 0.3608387586327424, 0.5032563034561837, 0.45825636877918047, 0.5532043323522959, 0.38836007080680135 ], "bias": [ -6.811995813137745, 13.686829231732531, -32.12879729431401, 20.206370714595973, 24.6865189715359, 30.137307753759295, -92.0231537788096, -9.831245585854992 ], "mae": [ 17.794290628958155, 16.160617924091344, 36.894160717504946, 21.74831339348535, 25.455380815533225, 31.818538470358348, 95.44273813465114, 23.295664195943086 ], "mse": [ 542.8195959701353, 358.09051221475613, 2168.287697492427, 708.5018330183862, 859.9312264003547, 1414.1728631903259, 12525.036691290123, 1033.7171086227447 ], "var": [ 2172.2044704551367, 1554.2522968777948, 4097.551306908883, 1979.916382688524, 1487.6334577550297, 2241.299041814927, 4139.269086388241, 1474.8402674591518 ], "zero": [ 0.06455471307917134, 0.07165039371879334, 0.012989193332442663, 0.053431447007191685, 0.06146964366793275, 0.04567625113774138, 0.005229587768814107, 0.08877402636894222 ] }, "crps": 23.526248523069903, "crpss": 0.2742517706917822, "rps": 0.3413485164965143, "rpss": 0.24001590578012533, "mean_bias_mm": -6.509770725061581, "mean_mae_mm": 33.5762130350657, "mean_rmse_mm": 49.51080378084067, "spread_error_ratio": 0.9881093666448031, "zero_fraction": 0.050471907010128686, "correlation": 0.8707037703476211, "pit_histogram": [ 0.00936, 0.08027, 0.13982, 0.1254, 0.11892, 0.11285, 0.1097, 0.1165, 0.08474, 0.10245 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.2512604110940868 } }, "full": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 19.495140748827524, 17.668680891721177, 13.560196692087613, 10.67011395747007, 50.01003497842584, 9.272332607014722, 7.90051749632143, 12.987915219724297, 7.182649156915054, 13.420156215907136, 10.114576702075842, 19.94026918837603, 10.6403260384512, 14.522725512107478, 13.380501626194397, 25.21328817505248, 14.742879327130003, 19.402430919445347, 35.120839134784845, 14.723544540210874, 29.471942000209758, 9.50406914114702, 13.480409392355977, 10.707927344654601, 10.282782654945693, 15.932233966884441, 28.744336634782336, 9.24377506056446, 10.709399335971403, 11.656012260427394, 48.465859185233725, 17.533478376537893 ], "crps_clim": [ 12.783782020353424, 22.511377726630435, 13.486233432588588, 12.69944443375219, 76.94122015896143, 12.20106868173247, 13.309810711893718, 13.382499762169186, 10.510860190270792, 11.948508158258385, 10.507324363236147, 19.219499581536, 12.15624842534919, 16.33110258238101, 12.70802225555305, 23.51737823123135, 11.65595466198018, 14.642515311603015, 37.809037033490284, 13.847526321731513, 31.179523394808456, 10.189531034239177, 17.927950590511536, 11.88010054552358, 10.658915041984727, 14.411604379011287, 38.49497020875638, 9.149304055972436, 12.957927427879538, 10.730182113419154, 72.85260912174846, 14.681246973704665 ], "rps": [ 0.7310834250026794, 0.3316524052198841, 0.5892796017214182, 0.39156585950486394, 0.14535471830952107, 0.4186984212219333, 0.3413728284955336, 0.41683088430675064, 0.3682139418575408, 0.5090922381624251, 0.38479739700798876, 0.4779934230722341, 0.4213353451728915, 0.4127852652587521, 0.4604445929597601, 0.5519844249564281, 0.5237644297028061, 0.6032144310306087, 0.439626262001443, 0.40931375648497315, 0.43103228571830093, 0.3553901574400369, 0.24003835252244687, 0.4073500253099066, 0.4007574543858824, 0.5155336466926094, 0.3349449727524399, 0.3614697062968498, 0.4049450035343107, 0.4350282012115549, 0.2520382025108836, 0.5500182283155782 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5099729077980537, 0.45223457520613386, 0.5042070796721, 0.4223319286224781, 0.5541349166685237, 0.4891341241458317, 0.46260551253834703, 0.41790847293771854, 0.47376507250073746, 0.44625492156786695, 0.3665742104158703, 0.46239929772210925, 0.44039805540566207, 0.4473385695884163, 0.41904326359193766, 0.4782106643198007, 0.43099085878539034, 0.4595141391239318, 0.5079472946014302, 0.4035582725551801, 0.49665385808099777, 0.3644779560242052, 0.4652165601075734, 0.42884001042431774, 0.4110384555452049, 0.43924247151695794, 0.5531184205365902, 0.36375626291307794, 0.4448249078788689, 0.3952033064964951, 0.5357304983934386, 0.4226854013145511 ], "bias": [ 33.62030614501809, -2.1335558264611088, 24.39212868819025, 5.44136594904519, -61.97853552775089, 19.35556914246307, 15.27095729630354, -1.7654209800150316, 12.654270094259408, 26.925049877407076, 0.2992011145525285, -22.40502992607353, 9.090430077187628, -2.343716700556966, 3.932667911867939, -21.19454798935882, 29.386906571460347, 33.286390924352155, -37.26679130470621, 8.036166509756134, -33.99725318827161, 1.6354245060728478, 8.615735975350624, 12.45607989357368, 4.5217080974710235, -7.269086857625361, -33.45279614467811, 12.291194803097138, 10.977748983397563, 19.341737769822696, -57.20041795878601, -15.033793054067662 ], "mae": [ 35.24195426810994, 24.22149246688683, 25.7082413417239, 16.441293794579586, 64.07524410950874, 19.891410068745856, 16.5084104734747, 18.15091567469451, 14.920712013512615, 27.56757383256316, 15.083887035516197, 26.32038838818139, 16.99879979500659, 20.49718670895703, 19.414454373526073, 32.14495278935925, 29.579988982366846, 34.07544568287839, 46.45831318150267, 23.530397010762588, 39.29191068504765, 13.593770812548225, 20.42585035666892, 17.934881537918944, 14.527989867654533, 21.85062024039774, 35.901751966090494, 14.930899277104167, 19.406353044345224, 21.624064669045733, 62.51150783092935, 22.44506014881815 ], "mse": [ 1832.4859695219486, 1083.3203038731851, 1057.9304894835345, 458.5678171499105, 7753.0878107164635, 619.756536236809, 522.7640197197359, 573.5295172738971, 328.0880114171196, 1237.1416387699558, 450.33268821561694, 1489.748409366975, 500.54752975459644, 946.298516296897, 642.6943500453724, 1838.4892395262711, 1372.1701270860128, 2090.6868326611993, 4564.804946416097, 1058.0805008669497, 2888.1657251677566, 370.0756671570641, 737.2576694113511, 559.9800322460019, 347.9272292373144, 866.2965858536124, 2064.18392575732, 410.6858037340389, 711.7417974884296, 781.7737495059343, 7222.437423396217, 1103.6555297425907 ], "var": [ 1582.5041946071244, 3200.8276977780656, 1052.0997283164952, 954.6933560116229, 2317.3951956938704, 1195.3000498220224, 1129.1004469345908, 722.4984070340149, 1090.5112309529557, 1949.6061628602315, 1026.3264424497072, 1246.9377601856702, 1347.5015447604076, 1773.8606231728127, 1404.7023868002493, 1082.0013017417286, 1982.6236725629824, 1494.5540423003736, 1439.469818514854, 1713.8856176914796, 1453.1649681390497, 1245.2862102002075, 2571.2085942843105, 958.8843740818455, 1435.7890622030632, 1024.9781540460554, 2222.942879887075, 1290.3010320520755, 957.0927592017721, 1524.9466581891031, 2118.9703304834743, 930.6826093340534 ], "zero": [ 0.016059997518779078, 0.015309565506174717, 0.010284525329172792, 0.033407514756908396, 0.008558640802162783, 0.01780288796135922, 0.03114126663217869, 0.00846320323067742, 0.033412032713101864, 0.014520552805865531, 0.01600187891604181, 0.02729771600838375, 0.01797867416327216, 0.010224355345026357, 0.03888211715055445, 0.04162969496163883, 0.01988279051689789, 0.009769738737797434, 0.025492375447213476, 0.01542836160486541, 0.034699957617821936, 0.0181395652871377, 0.005853342699312043, 0.009688489707036722, 0.036496189709343374, 0.04438998001151983, 0.010429373971092488, 0.03208561350157771, 0.03387227877792301, 0.02406754120648933, 0.0057625578491238266, 0.0500241461424107 ] }, "crps": 17.36566701506119, "crpss": 0.11411420781396842, "rps": 0.4255296840044136, "rpss": 0.05890828425762251, "mean_bias_mm": -0.14093453524069988, "mean_mae_mm": 25.977366325888312, "mean_rmse_mm": 38.924890170484176, "spread_error_ratio": 0.9891745135973875, "zero_fraction": 0.0224080289559019, "correlation": 0.28636632010697693, "pit_histogram": [ 0.06852, 0.10891, 0.12606, 0.11839, 0.11277, 0.09878, 0.0894, 0.08121, 0.08598, 0.10999 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.1522197781912491 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 31.308408298515147, 26.85288531048385, 16.810119146862455, 9.620574652547708, 80.33471497311449, 12.309882140280948, 8.063891539958865, 10.515304657162007, 9.360521147152193, 15.420582160735472, 13.88776490613634, 35.41449542314423, 10.833233466346758, 25.13712080198104, 17.367082864237407, 18.82184828927713, 19.405577343627375, 31.683371634713517, 60.023693546296634, 17.165713234171523, 50.469353726631866, 12.287522201929002, 18.07668487666944, 11.350306168349016, 16.076218968721196, 10.231846931000899, 29.476452662949956, 13.885015985212565, 12.746386068177474, 17.086320018692934, 75.89113374092301, 17.494679206698653 ], "crps_clim": [ 18.971560801065813, 35.6367147291537, 18.636916636476265, 13.008245857985397, 122.09582939281907, 17.78179646878491, 17.998112084481825, 13.076782675945864, 14.529083489713967, 13.24418302159305, 14.803193391112085, 34.07821828870073, 14.676722636955915, 29.418403592206143, 16.790159921611743, 19.251560181834897, 13.33628914107295, 23.960236587257803, 65.78672153414695, 11.854513425492197, 53.7131677313048, 13.396064979901809, 23.74020434353359, 12.389359531750223, 16.618238808520573, 13.04598803914388, 49.69954751558125, 12.770847456632547, 18.242786444806796, 16.533666942942173, 125.40466313928738, 15.824528080373357 ], "rps": [ 0.8832481440128601, 0.3137818223160321, 0.46491658185820595, 0.36466468212045056, 0.12601754243241048, 0.37490566098268885, 0.25942702721788613, 0.35782804577510263, 0.3112491063347268, 0.39418948864051384, 0.3195669042851377, 0.5530480937564733, 0.3497903950695953, 0.3630867360877311, 0.4211672035250694, 0.44796731152022884, 0.5753809837392085, 0.759733800682703, 0.41645280362458803, 0.3977288264133919, 0.4377207484634415, 0.31617832004252094, 0.1813349774366275, 0.4152963134489126, 0.37733062121618555, 0.32167821036694105, 0.1891256440692756, 0.38143242986671316, 0.4085811226010741, 0.47623452270169797, 0.08023339061943167, 0.46327926107678613 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.546221849426887, 0.5006209898385597, 0.47463997727575263, 0.41815000367394756, 0.5629552549427683, 0.49498688948174796, 0.477643485597547, 0.3820838914918218, 0.4675924281943521, 0.34140859723145817, 0.32837245319421293, 0.5374315918996531, 0.42791161191971255, 0.478997744827492, 0.3859727031231156, 0.43079003405987637, 0.4091224667534369, 0.5629552549427682, 0.5473749777298041, 0.31762780372493987, 0.5567250638845919, 0.3314668314118201, 0.5013535927665776, 0.3938931012781259, 0.4005237610004716, 0.37374789498522504, 0.5536094138716743, 0.347079043610374, 0.5202270950400264, 0.4553182914080023, 0.5617070387526095, 0.38432907468585364 ], "bias": [ 55.55178221006997, -12.210892854228755, 30.82603821752075, 12.897036478971701, -103.1749729139378, 26.02804532474959, 18.132508030518302, 9.476721896783156, 15.309305496639022, 31.795490053057936, -8.272728389067638, -45.40694899951293, 16.73104278944515, -16.86707173644605, -8.007577974139128, -13.638057196033348, 40.87926516778857, 54.63794798116519, -76.56458098703773, 30.207023008987456, -65.52933455913858, 2.363662748702647, 23.01524842778672, 16.94811712201547, -5.489080002874373, 15.313343825755778, -30.417775924241706, 22.289587074310436, 26.459075081515497, 32.20385404447078, -96.1217955976508, -9.170949806630647 ], "mae": [ 55.55178221006997, 33.665137369223814, 32.9720558840692, 16.9294005716917, 103.22604034187943, 26.611402618728043, 19.010956821934947, 17.60902623878842, 19.855342376248977, 32.077978067396444, 17.981950243971017, 45.899648218149984, 20.473012213266202, 31.453670612038707, 20.775945601490818, 26.3218134226087, 40.87926516778857, 54.63794798116519, 77.29208273122516, 30.909706924517373, 65.61078084223952, 15.65652020050268, 27.820678169883102, 20.79185250815028, 17.865764272778335, 17.657099112645547, 35.821040324731925, 23.139172492140204, 27.094697362142465, 33.18691985485767, 98.28295855352154, 22.833619394900303 ], "mse": [ 3401.587545927975, 1842.8214171316156, 1497.9946950882013, 398.86406324740585, 13805.815797280236, 873.2461170950183, 555.0705078009065, 456.1501515262813, 505.96447317463065, 1418.403727532328, 688.2755923061595, 3025.752471881051, 566.6916472299312, 1936.983672088573, 715.298446116062, 1432.0968523655656, 1930.3252445407768, 3885.8849857532896, 9483.723210908116, 1407.2560212641329, 5537.741047332365, 407.9869556095326, 1103.3716172931663, 555.1918442507719, 531.7335031645489, 418.33391922575277, 2061.23987738236, 767.312711886703, 954.6432751774263, 1481.674276271708, 13213.299434592707, 999.4654187023797 ], "var": [ 2492.347795263449, 4887.639037182865, 1639.3835390878583, 1381.52797302082, 4102.369684279036, 1727.8255420439727, 1861.7806847335837, 1053.3931471347273, 1675.0750023401094, 3064.0307895693823, 1515.1030986304133, 1882.859460159014, 1841.880127418387, 3062.3670735152245, 2172.649650984601, 1840.4057329819332, 3348.6963638114216, 2116.4541952391373, 2206.908452249839, 2729.6711985342886, 2307.969908424027, 2086.5492969149677, 5093.082055232377, 1423.2020832171247, 2352.7846939599567, 1677.2896610410385, 4277.732502830013, 2152.095135044971, 1532.6869947709483, 2316.800922187086, 3687.136224276469, 1562.8059885862388 ], "zero": [ 0.024214434798924923, 0.02928340557252507, 0.021091226409057317, 0.0732009263180498, 0.01179257769055395, 0.038570385941848674, 0.061152812818741534, 0.019022569584655525, 0.07245669878998248, 0.023986241001292548, 0.03367258223380625, 0.05207581496191681, 0.03364968301688334, 0.014218069369599795, 0.08849089197524247, 0.08953625835395633, 0.027647244063246496, 0.01921325518799297, 0.04534983469826251, 0.02705766202261275, 0.07932452113726902, 0.029640739520468307, 0.005129901259710037, 0.0070044918300645985, 0.06854836092018243, 0.07046889577582742, 0.013195256530505893, 0.0548302804555864, 0.05613217849494157, 0.04336753080721131, 0.0045842192919519, 0.09464519450064247 ] }, "crps": 23.60652206539691, "crpss": 0.1609500145376005, "rps": 0.3907055225720191, "rpss": 0.1361352340561005, "mean_bias_mm": -0.3064584987714172, "mean_mae_mm": 35.30922714702332, "mean_rmse_mm": 49.32678041678643, "spread_error_ratio": 0.9949287383924574, "zero_fraction": 0.041642317041672275, "correlation": 0.5317378305924393, "pit_histogram": [ 0.07133, 0.10646, 0.12157, 0.11666, 0.12096, 0.09901, 0.09256, 0.08845, 0.09183, 0.09117 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.13130948522707608 } }, "distribution_full": { "ethiopia": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9984217477945201, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.004266777762440788 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9358990341233672, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.08865063327442907 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.7461146207509686, "area_mean_abs_log": 1.2774224461077532 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 1.1394320530953812, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.20597996686534023 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9882459856820849, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.09517097836952601 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": 0.015250697998376464 } }, "ondj_domain": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 0.994036401619545, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.006835741170088656 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9008711595588174, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.110072582639327 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.682962570968723, "area_mean_abs_log": 2.025330259777157 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 1.1674932026178264, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.2236191258237561 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9802774288227998, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.09096402697962767 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.010563725490196078, "area_mean": 0.0258302173200655 } } } }, "pt": { "training": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 18.67586018107966, 18.92033586634054, 12.032166898937962, 10.427838658516848, 54.048014403855355, 8.5165259282029, 7.070070589767516, 12.93484645960984, 6.807205216361672, 12.34550615168302, 10.691691985278114, 22.041988042414832, 10.39650572098982, 14.997544981775565, 13.840624391707014, 25.761495505193974, 13.464513884663111, 18.477861870451513, 35.8756199202678, 15.59596581081316, 32.09290759844319, 10.396300630275915, 14.158231706097101, 9.98139646336119 ], "crps_clim": [ 12.317536543467577, 23.35796459817729, 12.697045070793552, 12.202051839195779, 80.47285365334993, 11.548375983365016, 12.678451972317543, 13.236171134630228, 9.77344956703739, 11.308094418769002, 10.495885058363076, 19.78743863254775, 11.56945900909618, 16.417052730597515, 12.717960992194332, 23.466029141135742, 10.74931047318028, 14.20169205564696, 38.727205395504946, 14.581796635287228, 32.862113763760696, 10.161605103260042, 18.582117729180727, 10.941519369614019 ], "rps": [ 0.714164355957501, 0.3456700326507608, 0.5417311072408413, 0.40409654082313606, 0.16036425154610756, 0.3874470194875227, 0.3177130190760576, 0.4367608380475592, 0.361837238894593, 0.4809938172592332, 0.3829090776244448, 0.5170116980624571, 0.43580369834782445, 0.41046383025911193, 0.46459457508735497, 0.5796928693118722, 0.49464623956349596, 0.5880846301225006, 0.4526063851103211, 0.4071402428466998, 0.4655521911054166, 0.36326909934992535, 0.2523656431902433, 0.429547175659781 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.503268882341884, 0.45696255193683133, 0.4925766326091148, 0.42240641708616883, 0.5420235822074022, 0.4714149775295732, 0.455605992500462, 0.4281783876000402, 0.46522974758146945, 0.45001555732494986, 0.3793571949725829, 0.4624359120204484, 0.4373678925332641, 0.4400525449202173, 0.42589693023153363, 0.47068205353537346, 0.4255615214855194, 0.4516170482691049, 0.49843663106201835, 0.41189108424683096, 0.4992305010159512, 0.3787617113337185, 0.4739156168036444, 0.434610826319066 ], "bias": [ 31.477328875708885, -3.2293515315698635, 21.714415659709182, 2.6106956274577624, -66.41523554494462, 16.692129844534104, 12.839868585415356, -4.920380232741088, 9.970518030889625, 24.751253462333946, -2.832818203052486, -25.65056633324413, 6.515275420325906, -5.2314817816532075, 1.0270867321427346, -23.880919137193427, 27.42580893531441, 30.989783806170063, -40.4496535811986, 5.298464854786547, -37.02261499165848, -1.0254267969451982, 7.525547121725343, 9.934797846891282 ], "mae": [ 34.11452066557256, 25.250651296956015, 23.238253788845086, 15.312906314206682, 68.43849871889019, 17.704503405940248, 14.661238050284355, 17.71308152892217, 13.153447207961982, 25.897078488310115, 15.018631480516856, 28.415272753165027, 15.445627785243067, 20.502586220817033, 19.14408982097521, 32.20491280075315, 27.687883412567317, 32.499656669805255, 47.01284870475272, 24.25800081260503, 41.66256222472398, 13.908969482342483, 21.187091913892026, 16.096321397239485 ], "mse": [ 1778.3503653137209, 1183.2732254835857, 889.2924660306421, 409.31831832549057, 8381.218887651276, 510.7427922265454, 425.02966342479533, 544.5104032321398, 263.85458210515293, 1134.0203298914616, 493.0898310878993, 1684.693242663047, 403.51351453557334, 993.0665574396977, 644.9115323945889, 1872.1069854655252, 1246.7253342024778, 2058.3207155842724, 4667.547739604204, 1166.0573838295013, 3194.363782187137, 450.4549135209698, 798.9301359131513, 441.5630158664503 ], "var": [ 1658.0150238893368, 3978.807881711522, 1084.7749252132908, 937.1825288117767, 2172.929965357649, 1198.348723415919, 1154.2955529732064, 722.4162561466645, 1079.0837135255997, 2103.722302102905, 1008.5235340767128, 1252.9257546725112, 1422.6578437856385, 1872.4950925902515, 1416.2051872530556, 1132.2058801190622, 2175.085306447577, 1561.7230271840451, 1500.4269390018337, 1784.4085304421565, 1525.1160623194487, 1332.466349802861, 3173.3674906691467, 982.7143831499291 ], "zero": [ 0.004884159554093707, 0.0010175930007352936, 0.0016001577218703576, 0.005170341498615997, 0.0007173045085414388, 0.001143638131133162, 0.007873176427995511, 0.00039740620573866633, 0.006220199746195406, 0.0028214457240101016, 0.0038790906006246437, 0.004445395875961082, 0.0025396579427551485, 0.0028962592662863116, 0.0025708046952385966, 0.016759282247170625, 0.006372546200591536, 0.0018690417519513904, 0.0109969465574892, 0.0022729515204874783, 0.00423221826727345, 0.002480619440006088, 0.00021293985315423548, 0.0009044471857671569 ] }, "crps": 17.06462578608698, "crpss": 0.07935688339983815, "rps": 0.43310273235936503, "rpss": 0.044406767370584244, "mean_bias_mm": -0.07856138878316443, "mean_mae_mm": 25.438693122720338, "mean_rmse_mm": 38.532970578226525, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0357703133571043, "zero_fraction": 0.003928234330153608, "correlation": 0.22596827832427432, "pit_histogram": [ 0.08734, 0.09, 0.10814, 0.11783, 0.11777, 0.10539, 0.0942, 0.08281, 0.09136, 0.10516 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.10858090904809135 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 30.126102566216986, 29.33053654861364, 15.68401701645253, 9.405562487363698, 85.14839249412817, 11.86059299365163, 7.537195341485726, 10.00260230007276, 9.34351274222785, 14.685919171338144, 14.831736701676425, 38.11009143757574, 10.654500569914937, 26.29551074059613, 18.28019942758984, 19.24403277869178, 18.361756819148482, 30.935933424783396, 61.895013801792366, 16.41335915492274, 53.62788806658616, 13.087989756908598, 18.568441250889105, 11.008947769578919 ], "crps_clim": [ 18.52395116853421, 36.87672256900793, 18.170789562622396, 12.289909839909377, 126.90605491615098, 17.41989047035546, 17.706970523055745, 12.351304505468207, 13.796387526958524, 13.076262007562349, 14.560429422573055, 34.92849143385597, 13.963924627676032, 30.04724509587627, 16.82171605773241, 18.528924529932958, 12.89918086433115, 23.58960486668408, 67.53597007272384, 11.371976284610398, 55.90409404224628, 13.21381402559538, 23.974094843997456, 11.63096415863434 ], "rps": [ 0.8786867507848254, 0.3289007591918865, 0.4387919731013499, 0.37397489618949065, 0.13067678405409797, 0.3585258750143318, 0.24342967916675928, 0.3428501710673792, 0.3447362321865098, 0.3738217496739152, 0.34266313632050244, 0.5849199248181199, 0.3525978305607815, 0.38450187995648316, 0.4406535186717159, 0.47860006408725075, 0.53547581548514, 0.770219347045567, 0.4408271809593986, 0.38175921427440795, 0.4621406972794507, 0.3302093084606563, 0.17146569253578078, 0.4351239371586113 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5345788969238703, 0.4969529963190181, 0.4649874789243917, 0.41318634740760435, 0.546313799621928, 0.4766642051904933, 0.47169819738486596, 0.3818166848915748, 0.4706484126244913, 0.36582560440255596, 0.35459642943677694, 0.5238068939647562, 0.42423555831428944, 0.4745855744751957, 0.4052259209726985, 0.43061974360983973, 0.4027224211940853, 0.5463137996219276, 0.5329121077567514, 0.33515957321525397, 0.5425588509144538, 0.35778764325037954, 0.505082202846066, 0.40346036499799176 ], "bias": [ 54.258904889568065, -10.883731057902564, 29.161788072832923, 11.118205233673153, -107.24653160240747, 24.60243761786644, 16.98390159186541, 7.348275973427963, 13.505237167346106, 30.652177962195605, -10.316306423262388, -48.44304456705121, 15.273658670550166, -19.38474534775644, -9.746415251051145, -15.12154057721636, 39.763659232266086, 54.15713924466628, -79.22012144333173, 28.627716083145767, -67.98307664965976, 0.5910689656300783, 24.790726196842083, 15.058639317703863 ], "mae": [ 54.258904889568065, 36.44790232288487, 31.15060779634579, 15.788771428640747, 107.38324786125891, 25.319793395335562, 18.017114918801205, 16.241888617186095, 18.84476802446981, 31.103557358255888, 18.58310786959297, 48.76704297552694, 19.029698531946565, 32.65409269921675, 21.42295981024553, 26.077812567326703, 39.763659232266086, 54.15713924466628, 79.52853221526608, 29.519251993405817, 68.04484920105719, 16.119667655056187, 28.609419064743488, 19.295148643461918 ], "mse": [ 3333.5064258614484, 2037.9018677381705, 1373.7003910348965, 344.33036895578283, 14662.187411082883, 810.8940292843857, 495.58302988592203, 392.1353483162786, 454.0097202226128, 1418.1019839560174, 763.701150309637, 3282.6580080217786, 491.26306457116954, 2048.5749222766385, 760.9408615781109, 1407.6191003310148, 1900.5704944284817, 4012.103497343351, 9730.741080822741, 1327.7989706410647, 5911.180695839866, 450.8920919903724, 1217.627639534442, 481.42820781404976 ], "var": [ 2633.7021086659197, 6266.101920985969, 1753.621489235146, 1423.4639603581388, 3958.3134337379865, 1796.5726998960981, 1954.365344015022, 1082.836050600299, 1701.5339281505505, 3370.9405020283643, 1572.960686570605, 1963.884058159849, 1993.2414518275968, 3304.688479962759, 2276.784588786748, 2013.62744751222, 3694.441904203798, 2323.072569224431, 2352.426803313582, 2956.013066088674, 2495.8318231247545, 2314.9864589035437, 6521.595208595674, 1479.6094098217188 ], "zero": [ 0.0019410524324200503, 0.0008308702021995864, 0.0, 0.007969702564675425, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002492517698429611, 0.0, 0.0032565482689731404, 0.0, 0.0031895307268770857, 0.0, 0.002492517698429611, 0.0, 0.0038088753871645094, 0.01247595470706571, 0.001110182230220464, 0.0, 0.006865223617052536, 0.0, 0.006168171775452067, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 23.934993140091905, "crpss": 0.09691862256060291, "rps": 0.4135646840851838, "rpss": 0.08619128384238495, "mean_bias_mm": -0.10216569583579609, "mean_mae_mm": 35.67203909652189, "mean_rmse_mm": 49.627550464199956, "spread_error_ratio": 1.034060469296021, "zero_fraction": 0.0021917144712066583, "correlation": 0.34312235975139527, "pit_histogram": [ 0.13317, 0.0954, 0.09061, 0.09789, 0.11482, 0.09347, 0.08746, 0.08642, 0.10097, 0.09978 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.09793671890449658 } }, "operational": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 10.244686049239954, 16.486861543801748, 30.2913082104391, 8.80505033527711, 10.55649346131661, 10.765672819248273, 47.11712505245977, 18.92626973459235 ], "crps_clim": [ 9.895516071070114, 14.17903530722128, 38.54879256346864, 8.382690795432643, 12.100478712529222, 9.990734718607943, 72.45749800359884, 14.992025314000559 ], "rps": [ 0.38235641925558855, 0.5486670133043903, 0.37216718601048, 0.3562323824006966, 0.4284476461372459, 0.41679540343371363, 0.2637901044189135, 0.5852059166246693 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.39574475776394596, 0.4437047305666722, 0.546311199561453, 0.36237075360897236, 0.43798495130070614, 0.3932407178861523, 0.5285945268864339, 0.42293901304422793 ], "bias": [ 2.1602530754790927, -9.455568348966747, -34.11383656778132, 9.514011636233333, 8.339794296353324, 16.248321389748757, -54.3920373177288, -17.0348003237466 ], "mae": [ 13.401613560272914, 21.923302114019364, 36.76825714259091, 13.529646632371454, 18.54411172201326, 19.679824610730687, 60.4408880361904, 23.749509133330214 ], "mse": [ 323.2132526275008, 912.1600012068891, 2173.7813962961905, 374.21306452981486, 675.7563630131772, 711.7563160446936, 6770.985657628728, 1246.556511779596 ], "var": [ 1510.0110951961374, 1011.7624595676309, 2684.046551461151, 1285.09493391664, 991.9558097038, 1620.2024503489697, 2960.130228248536, 916.9086532942301 ], "zero": [ 0.0025820438436924375, 0.00879042198339892, 0.0022711286105919636, 0.0050707605093021635, 0.012561588332239602, 0.008183188880008348, 0.0015120588290740518, 0.011184805492395292 ] }, "crps": 19.149183400796865, "crpss": 0.15150259433847635, "rps": 0.4192077589482122, "rpss": 0.05019373199841748, "mean_bias_mm": -9.84173277005112, "mean_mae_mm": 26.0046441189399, "mean_rmse_mm": 40.60237456591454, "spread_error_ratio": 0.9920710947785745, "zero_fraction": 0.006519499560087847, "correlation": 0.5034723672842663, "pit_histogram": [ 0.01786, 0.04861, 0.08082, 0.10824, 0.12648, 0.11885, 0.10435, 0.11075, 0.09578, 0.18826 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.31385885988200535 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 16.626490321994705, 9.641727738775351, 31.03899090686003, 12.994235118358008, 11.321363279122988, 15.98401616093711, 70.23376939931552, 17.99965464767179 ], "crps_clim": [ 16.023613765163336, 12.042589782487557, 48.89791233340558, 12.005332284732548, 16.60873516709748, 15.463955391266797, 122.93071411734311, 15.359489400606916 ], "rps": [ 0.3904959312070895, 0.3152067361005938, 0.21793622275382823, 0.3681214209731289, 0.40228998254325526, 0.4615905276648662, 0.08966136700799775, 0.4656440564534298 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4012574985052145, 0.3824738866553415, 0.5455702609428927, 0.3608387586327424, 0.5032563034561837, 0.45825636877918047, 0.5532043323522959, 0.38836007080680135 ], "bias": [ -6.7913122286086445, 12.79592467391922, -29.848207491969998, 19.922865660187593, 23.948778449411357, 30.270500020193705, -87.67235492148635, -10.560474326629352 ], "mae": [ 17.806159400546754, 15.621198860997314, 35.61906240720142, 21.638542305117817, 24.798603870883515, 31.948488113086107, 91.76824275388377, 23.455686685572225 ], "mse": [ 544.5157048072726, 338.7434534295851, 2058.9289027370373, 705.0566809603454, 806.8966184626892, 1446.9715775941195, 11757.951326648783, 1054.9227213980153 ], "var": [ 2569.2875978724446, 1664.083318099355, 5245.384942761244, 2199.054930896196, 1627.3381062861483, 2625.6446212079354, 5400.348982908925, 1571.2761349471402 ], "zero": [ 0.0007467408980360028, 0.005675200282129735, 0.00040728931480371887, 0.0007128220322502846, 0.00958909794438938, 0.002920623912729915, 0.0, 0.009181962400556654 ] }, "crps": 23.230030946629437, "crpss": 0.2833896228818936, "rps": 0.33886828058802365, "rpss": 0.24553794483777902, "mean_bias_mm": -5.991785020622808, "mean_mae_mm": 32.83199804966112, "mean_rmse_mm": 48.36577688050437, "spread_error_ratio": 1.1062607727762304, "zero_fraction": 0.0036542170981119617, "correlation": 0.8715944635259322, "pit_histogram": [ 0.03303, 0.08196, 0.11785, 0.11031, 0.11819, 0.11768, 0.11245, 0.12399, 0.08575, 0.09878 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.20095166369059156 } }, "full": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 19.084765497786492, 18.365786734622592, 13.11298608929929, 10.61486504321267, 49.15146854048401, 9.120316864816806, 7.741167253079879, 12.75718258254436, 7.188472401292609, 13.166094581194317, 10.537792133734323, 20.758375918213392, 10.605218954800796, 14.970728973562737, 13.880040200974967, 25.43720422831564, 14.415960757534235, 18.977081982455214, 35.17705025938853, 14.526814466504158, 30.08388710498618, 9.923217377096284, 13.982148520222221, 10.615973859031142, 10.650906068514779, 15.91910514975862, 29.15626714900183, 9.12431085312377, 10.520449619674569, 11.47742536676317, 47.01281349787668, 17.992060838934595 ], "crps_clim": [ 12.783782020353424, 22.511377726630435, 13.486233432588588, 12.69944443375219, 76.94122015896143, 12.20106868173247, 13.309810711893718, 13.382499762169186, 10.510860190270792, 11.948508158258385, 10.507324363236147, 19.219499581536, 12.15624842534919, 16.33110258238101, 12.70802225555305, 23.51737823123135, 11.65595466198018, 14.642515311603015, 37.809037033490284, 13.847526321731513, 31.179523394808456, 10.189531034239177, 17.927950590511536, 11.88010054552358, 10.658915041984727, 14.411604379011287, 38.49497020875638, 9.149304055972436, 12.957927427879538, 10.730182113419154, 72.85260912174846, 14.681246973704665 ], "rps": [ 0.7161498736819186, 0.34696537411755396, 0.5708921570663974, 0.40580075655610703, 0.1487459406440248, 0.41649120005912305, 0.33472029952501275, 0.4224581334286623, 0.3702277209649215, 0.4963856946594421, 0.39393123113387574, 0.49831883168865587, 0.43012493938040564, 0.4229551615467172, 0.4742511735007076, 0.5716225799539897, 0.519308800385731, 0.6060766370197826, 0.4533642398902953, 0.40040341200589635, 0.45330575444914983, 0.36964406476320866, 0.24812662747788075, 0.41365518298662163, 0.3959252470837611, 0.5215295732097416, 0.3476128660690021, 0.3562817710447884, 0.4079251796241487, 0.4329994433261354, 0.2526035263926065, 0.57040141889047 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5099729077980537, 0.45223457520613386, 0.5042070796721, 0.4223319286224781, 0.5541349166685237, 0.4891341241458317, 0.46260551253834703, 0.41790847293771854, 0.47376507250073746, 0.44625492156786695, 0.3665742104158703, 0.46239929772210925, 0.44039805540566207, 0.4473385695884163, 0.41904326359193766, 0.4782106643198007, 0.43099085878539034, 0.4595141391239318, 0.5079472946014302, 0.4035582725551801, 0.49665385808099777, 0.3644779560242052, 0.4652165601075734, 0.42884001042431774, 0.4110384555452049, 0.43924247151695794, 0.5531184205365902, 0.36375626291307794, 0.4448249078788689, 0.3952033064964951, 0.5357304983934386, 0.4226854013145511 ], "bias": [ 33.64816843222434, -0.13819048514916224, 23.960016756162375, 4.801186066799967, -59.898366573248026, 18.86327530072003, 14.783019127352544, -2.5316007213999168, 12.10699143956507, 27.119846024598615, -0.2834465652622537, -23.03250782866133, 8.627891998560248, -2.2881059962766677, 3.7705332746398383, -21.740636854523835, 29.675816588173284, 33.25455696148606, -37.476266324887035, 8.09942834484528, -34.07541602256884, 1.1634968096645464, 10.781816188316593, 11.845706713802043, 4.412068999823942, -7.983209928653634, -31.63266071087589, 11.977303186770005, 10.247238997271612, 19.203834452762322, -54.82112068034329, -15.78794847350756 ], "mae": [ 35.27933596957455, 24.11706783352148, 25.309556659992634, 16.147237939911065, 62.28714622463709, 19.411527092893387, 16.112950560125018, 17.85803248151823, 14.662036569309567, 27.731832529336383, 15.22743467626198, 26.770509434357393, 16.76967973695329, 20.489319297358946, 19.457631871682906, 32.39673334230372, 29.86068957936338, 34.03783886452328, 46.7314349580352, 23.38796183596117, 39.47844161491481, 13.694759089221332, 21.94172404288689, 17.54244676407337, 14.573679552942323, 21.701726392921024, 35.18533650060542, 14.688610037708294, 18.935528780017965, 21.535268966929202, 60.71910725944297, 22.871143020420256 ], "mse": [ 1836.199618244446, 1051.3808495157464, 1028.3243219375067, 441.5031586405294, 7414.9377765513, 590.354439806607, 497.0261868190808, 563.1861035783359, 315.8569242824058, 1253.6315155767106, 465.61568115346864, 1538.9076375848358, 485.248984064062, 943.6275217413014, 647.1939390489141, 1864.3336844852279, 1401.989798881579, 2105.3359228212294, 4591.375510740516, 1047.558779038799, 2911.761793150166, 378.9291055595391, 858.3168196680203, 534.1950109431721, 350.92507227142744, 867.6272925872911, 1993.1010542718916, 401.4747633852708, 682.7292471111115, 783.9455856125932, 6849.514551903703, 1138.4571251878822 ], "var": [ 1765.0536321304378, 4095.9703610940137, 1169.186169504683, 1027.8981424111846, 3090.4237778883557, 1300.777262294218, 1241.8722000511286, 785.8493113040975, 1185.3921784252364, 2293.6731391834956, 1103.7211549010685, 1405.1754731185863, 1487.5254441760076, 2096.060144120017, 1576.9698953249147, 1185.745726705775, 2466.461415489466, 1684.2889941364274, 1615.8175073502766, 1938.7247412405704, 1687.7456774604066, 1392.4452243190576, 3358.475121056976, 1053.1552447836007, 1682.6169227556347, 1099.0995538814855, 3089.559098565945, 1428.1770099009445, 1040.9511893425913, 1725.6193832057045, 2667.721798802717, 992.9901195899828 ], "zero": [ 0.004884159554093707, 0.0010175930007352936, 0.0016001577218703576, 0.005170341498615997, 0.0007173045085414388, 0.001143638131133162, 0.007873176427995511, 0.00039740620573866633, 0.006220199746195406, 0.0028214457240101016, 0.0038790906006246437, 0.004445395875961082, 0.0025396579427551485, 0.0028962592662863116, 0.0025708046952385966, 0.016759282247170625, 0.006372546200591536, 0.0018690417519513904, 0.0109969465574892, 0.0022729515204874783, 0.00423221826727345, 0.002480619440006088, 0.00021293985315423548, 0.0009044471857671569, 0.0025820438436924375, 0.00879042198339892, 0.0022711286105919636, 0.0050707605093021635, 0.012561588332239602, 0.008183188880008348, 0.0015120588290740518, 0.011184805492395292 ] }, "crps": 17.376498089650028, "crpss": 0.1135616753322598, "rps": 0.43028765039146044, "rpss": 0.048385674627916875, "mean_bias_mm": -0.10460254693183568, "mean_mae_mm": 25.841054046240764, "mean_rmse_mm": 38.66303377265093, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0794279070882915, "zero_fraction": 0.004576050637637167, "correlation": 0.2868224565018765, "pit_histogram": [ 0.07725, 0.08825, 0.11101, 0.12341, 0.12097, 0.10684, 0.09341, 0.08587, 0.08891, 0.10408 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.13261019606933075 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 30.013710551018608, 28.006369096931177, 15.760930692244676, 9.567902794111012, 78.26639236718447, 11.798442630626147, 7.701132282260235, 10.16865506738547, 9.246787769064943, 14.834172791948916, 14.598774902590577, 37.00667381193716, 10.659448487152964, 25.984170102529816, 18.064621738326032, 19.536275743811974, 18.42128205855951, 30.305252325583584, 60.427906207062136, 16.81689948489467, 51.68389623317487, 12.887967441113949, 19.199284572983306, 11.094299826871056, 16.848942644030657, 10.044779837472696, 30.89311177063075, 13.204719419636069, 11.951572870052031, 16.400055332245763, 72.71097774102297, 18.02311196539703 ], "crps_clim": [ 18.971560801065813, 35.6367147291537, 18.636916636476265, 13.008245857985397, 122.09582939281907, 17.78179646878491, 17.998112084481825, 13.076782675945864, 14.529083489713967, 13.24418302159305, 14.803193391112085, 34.07821828870073, 14.676722636955915, 29.418403592206143, 16.790159921611743, 19.251560181834897, 13.33628914107295, 23.960236587257803, 65.78672153414695, 11.854513425492197, 53.7131677313048, 13.396064979901809, 23.74020434353359, 12.389359531750223, 16.618238808520573, 13.04598803914388, 49.69954751558125, 12.770847456632547, 18.242786444806796, 16.533666942942173, 125.40466313928738, 15.824528080373357 ], "rps": [ 0.8562946832650135, 0.33415494836975884, 0.4504439342137358, 0.3803005578590813, 0.1388535410962487, 0.37929707338470936, 0.25397211597135777, 0.35753043386466016, 0.3332235177877653, 0.37447188480104027, 0.3331450827148447, 0.5875940379203214, 0.35100884020782774, 0.3903952081014751, 0.4367507907883903, 0.4790613637404593, 0.5586572759313841, 0.7528908904881914, 0.44609549936946735, 0.38324469943186956, 0.4746020683888705, 0.3292885811621779, 0.18883959358994656, 0.4162212052681215, 0.39224252933939757, 0.31373238907612416, 0.21024795914536165, 0.355017530959261, 0.39923118066138535, 0.45367086466580764, 0.0847711579100167, 0.4701541204323141 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.546221849426887, 0.5006209898385597, 0.47463997727575263, 0.41815000367394756, 0.5629552549427683, 0.49498688948174796, 0.477643485597547, 0.3820838914918218, 0.4675924281943521, 0.34140859723145817, 0.32837245319421293, 0.5374315918996531, 0.42791161191971255, 0.478997744827492, 0.3859727031231156, 0.43079003405987637, 0.4091224667534369, 0.5629552549427682, 0.5473749777298041, 0.31762780372493987, 0.5567250638845919, 0.3314668314118201, 0.5013535927665776, 0.3938931012781259, 0.4005237610004716, 0.37374789498522504, 0.5536094138716743, 0.347079043610374, 0.5202270950400264, 0.4553182914080023, 0.5617070387526095, 0.38432907468585364 ], "bias": [ 55.28712938418239, -8.89900440548085, 29.56426122626391, 11.694204769675363, -98.49543671555503, 25.152396378883612, 17.382592388176864, 7.851037591299418, 14.295396196932938, 31.99694552256453, -9.442000041997394, -46.595013798964466, 15.953120831547292, -16.526730821174308, -8.471077498686077, -14.450367235659254, 41.14528675641648, 54.328940728149306, -77.1845625328268, 30.144247235582018, -65.75369131673908, 1.5489679360946365, 27.588715365037576, 15.803585714406418, -5.639222121243332, 14.094624581520096, -26.30571201127042, 21.78052252938621, 25.258144084537246, 31.911599818262943, -91.71057930263335, -10.256223150100801 ], "mae": [ 55.28712938418239, 33.55953323075117, 31.826473412994403, 16.36750665555046, 98.60082074502807, 25.777235828385017, 18.44125854521566, 16.854774278999443, 19.461432722337637, 32.2727222221475, 18.449236211017418, 46.97755689622554, 19.999562602950313, 31.642869642042726, 20.884614525777085, 26.67326784570561, 41.14528675641648, 54.328940728149306, 77.8604859842648, 30.889879489713024, 65.82578591309249, 15.839791632894778, 31.43482547902524, 19.99383292508444, 18.053890297379947, 16.8610490340351, 34.43888730514417, 22.76220834528913, 26.036618560852528, 32.98051485609531, 94.53567079215372, 23.25425494316904 ], "mse": [ 3383.467360321962, 1775.3451563228864, 1419.2357758183896, 366.698486894243, 12964.624421474144, 816.7815570096092, 514.7898470618749, 426.00333901292527, 483.123332227736, 1440.2463296722065, 729.3202872523965, 3139.8081210650907, 535.9069707770325, 1936.8420636127046, 729.7536767353428, 1465.858880619214, 1985.4234584891913, 3892.520828502777, 9537.954928111656, 1423.983024513012, 5576.152216614258, 414.8908795400597, 1405.5880058152786, 513.0478993646587, 541.5579761348837, 391.9324920436448, 1922.9748805315317, 747.5403548572646, 882.1999367067868, 1486.538433031913, 12393.345887773723, 1033.6518909304434 ], "var": [ 2816.704521945026, 6471.671854268284, 1816.5962823042728, 1512.6913549549527, 6047.099511326164, 1889.4669996286889, 2040.1556446907553, 1125.3984984282483, 1826.2522749246577, 3687.309552427985, 1654.7300806368712, 2153.388756118425, 2083.376469519672, 3747.435266529454, 2480.887856045356, 2027.5818356854224, 4353.646574598573, 2454.7859747367993, 2499.347907207125, 3111.745929861372, 2775.8721419221542, 2369.5912305175248, 6922.966356792758, 1598.700925906581, 2877.538449854709, 1786.030567628801, 6256.618061247424, 2399.6989433383014, 1667.9403233840474, 2684.5164014892225, 4782.694509140989, 1667.7379532117427 ], "zero": [ 0.0019410524324200503, 0.0008308702021995864, 0.0, 0.007969702564675425, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002492517698429611, 0.0, 0.0032565482689731404, 0.0, 0.0031895307268770857, 0.0, 0.002492517698429611, 0.0, 0.0038088753871645094, 0.01247595470706571, 0.001110182230220464, 0.0, 0.006865223617052536, 0.0, 0.006168171775452067, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007467408980360028, 0.005675200282129735, 0.00040728931480371887, 0.0007128220322502846, 0.00958909794438938, 0.002920623912729915, 0.0, 0.009181962400556654 ] }, "crps": 23.504016267495473, "crpss": 0.16459339275319473, "rps": 0.39579392374707456, "rpss": 0.12488458558514703, "mean_bias_mm": -0.21712193479412178, "mean_mae_mm": 34.978684931002185, "mean_rmse_mm": 48.82273698635415, "spread_error_ratio": 1.1076894711234004, "zero_fraction": 0.002557340127932984, "correlation": 0.5325456315714997, "pit_histogram": [ 0.10357, 0.09186, 0.09908, 0.10636, 0.1157, 0.10171, 0.09717, 0.09993, 0.10016, 0.08444 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.05501528655683115 } }, "distribution_full": { "ethiopia": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9992527829374332, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.0037245029544061554 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0003221509290918, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.008496906095868144 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.6379183788013039, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.80276828030038 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 1.1034266589442432, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.19016198955402006 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0110361947179967, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.10278487329768043 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0006127450980392157, "area_mean": -0.002581280319888255 } }, "ondj_domain": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 0.996158440584062, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.004578410066626114 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9959773803076515, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.009399747368529 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.7335403219212387, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.7534264099348691 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 1.1066888890394577, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.19556155420232785 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0014132336928596, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.09636992443541172 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": -0.013254759593673773 } } } }, "dc": { "training": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 15.2437600403297, 19.28496625971126, 10.822301424676061, 10.502990696779833, 53.51526877068653, 8.353764618253743, 7.57682515871889, 14.049205131240843, 6.934931770814841, 12.129428250099478, 10.86668965465601, 22.21330923726483, 10.161217472053435, 15.31154192002155, 13.298185755552959, 26.796632777158994, 11.992400058542582, 16.209365213221098, 37.6392683659258, 14.674002991588956, 32.99098410791175, 10.115521736386771, 14.711761128124946, 9.993353316771909 ], "crps_clim": [ 12.317536543467577, 23.35796459817729, 12.697045070793552, 12.202051839195779, 80.47285365334993, 11.548375983365016, 12.678451972317543, 13.236171134630228, 9.77344956703739, 11.308094418769002, 10.495885058363076, 19.78743863254775, 11.56945900909618, 16.417052730597515, 12.717960992194332, 23.466029141135742, 10.74931047318028, 14.20169205564696, 38.727205395504946, 14.581796635287228, 32.862113763760696, 10.161605103260042, 18.582117729180727, 10.941519369614019 ], "rps": [ 0.6196297223963316, 0.3435758625679993, 0.42824727639659704, 0.40421376085004396, 0.24120464751783918, 0.3413695475262944, 0.3191297482794024, 0.5312271244282886, 0.33176921866160053, 0.4819427048945628, 0.41003995979870506, 0.5586082446831834, 0.41484405801804103, 0.4044520114493727, 0.4754530276726575, 0.6358782532125998, 0.45150715771728694, 0.5082277998481228, 0.492420325553399, 0.3879323857275481, 0.49910861337454965, 0.37705604776525475, 0.3049302074751437, 0.4347970174915904 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.503268882341884, 0.45696255193683133, 0.4925766326091148, 0.42240641708616883, 0.5420235822074022, 0.4714149775295732, 0.455605992500462, 0.4281783876000402, 0.46522974758146945, 0.45001555732494986, 0.3793571949725829, 0.4624359120204484, 0.4373678925332641, 0.4400525449202173, 0.42589693023153363, 0.47068205353537346, 0.4255615214855194, 0.4516170482691049, 0.49843663106201835, 0.41189108424683096, 0.4992305010159512, 0.3787617113337185, 0.4739156168036444, 0.434610826319066 ], "bias": [ 31.256957541563775, -6.317518067216228, 21.987840624576123, 3.741359112160865, -66.30490447409812, 17.16191986630869, 13.556402302265166, -3.9438157898114437, 10.540520282414542, 24.35509639180066, -1.7034014032974079, -25.047503908509945, 7.302188336480114, -6.0046091370181465, 1.842654179509416, -23.23897230214802, 26.859306047802132, 30.995099481018084, -40.306644522653144, 4.490179160695681, -36.735411244076886, -0.44159864505708857, 3.7734796381389297, 10.825940847867884 ], "mae": [ 33.737648607507595, 25.775471000932992, 23.51880674745879, 16.09421076841722, 69.29026440164141, 18.142225244318052, 15.398748323595902, 18.915464731241194, 13.264123459143939, 25.593922071852173, 14.952351931688403, 27.744949914257862, 16.00088658681006, 20.743891187067558, 19.496062216558038, 32.49680712106583, 27.115004667598615, 32.662973309608155, 46.54881632561964, 23.965419560922644, 41.7255643127507, 13.4847251459908, 18.386171059772064, 16.941051644494667 ], "mse": [ 1744.2360240677292, 1278.937430787944, 918.6442315126914, 440.7468639994605, 8465.709165840493, 556.515665498526, 464.8708372464749, 594.4966890873426, 279.4611860774612, 1107.6726285216894, 467.6687624937041, 1618.2386341930414, 433.1952537387517, 1008.4860033646813, 653.9495577303151, 1890.480221185574, 1200.0401922828669, 2061.0458799881344, 4636.2856874955205, 1163.2204641526314, 3185.2224576390313, 420.0557979873873, 604.4254955810515, 488.30304293911115 ], "var": [ 2545.090910146414, 3686.5827140968554, 1432.4797843312786, 1185.9390240219657, 3823.5852622516245, 1229.1010869647707, 854.8458526792693, 1211.7954870589267, 1044.0905998843625, 2175.704473825931, 1387.0296903717042, 1380.3344218916482, 1299.503649769078, 2251.6295619076186, 1531.0661933222239, 1162.9842527581548, 2391.328402345775, 2240.6810551435406, 1885.7248463917222, 2530.5073822201803, 1855.0790730910662, 1675.1505808770864, 4963.82002084926, 1531.0262402410224 ], "zero": [ 0.007461485655808523, 0.00866630030318509, 0.007991251218230282, 0.007696824794709438, 0.00866630030318509, 0.007638230926816132, 0.007932029199203581, 0.008578105954904379, 0.007608400505117884, 0.00866630030318509, 0.00866630030318509, 0.00866630030318509, 0.008196639327482883, 0.008578327165383004, 0.00866630030318509, 0.008401697364046883, 0.00825507699550239, 0.007520376903019956, 0.00866630030318509, 0.00866630030318509, 0.00866630030318509, 0.008607658108478335, 0.00866630030318509, 0.008195799822702493 ] }, "crps": 16.8911531606872, "crpss": 0.08871579818032393, "rps": 0.4332318634711006, "rpss": 0.044121853867905125, "mean_bias_mm": -0.05647648672018176, "mean_mae_mm": 25.499815014179763, "mean_rmse_mm": 38.55834765510771, "spread_error_ratio": 1.1510444713517287, "zero_fraction": 0.008305204457219044, "correlation": 0.23615061050412114, "pit_histogram": [ 0.0932, 0.07018, 0.08964, 0.10284, 0.11074, 0.11801, 0.11446, 0.1059, 0.11065, 0.08438 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.12519648257762162 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 23.40813307320425, 30.40757935022815, 14.904210419398368, 9.168385185807187, 85.75354698461919, 12.058070517336718, 9.023946070455095, 10.518953795691754, 9.968959955185372, 14.5407172642529, 15.496374389240671, 38.79744040251092, 10.75494079286179, 27.791781480298916, 17.69504556109234, 19.81147695801487, 15.517669321996433, 26.664139760714377, 65.4459107202704, 13.983001831414667, 55.96524455704621, 13.36599699863451, 18.657077412928817, 10.711430466309682 ], "crps_clim": [ 18.52395116853421, 36.87672256900793, 18.170789562622396, 12.289909839909377, 126.90605491615098, 17.41989047035546, 17.706970523055745, 12.351304505468207, 13.796387526958524, 13.076262007562349, 14.560429422573055, 34.92849143385597, 13.963924627676032, 30.04724509587627, 16.82171605773241, 18.528924529932958, 12.89918086433115, 23.58960486668408, 67.53597007272384, 11.371976284610398, 55.90409404224628, 13.21381402559538, 23.974094843997456, 11.63096415863434 ], "rps": [ 0.6685616042042334, 0.36601731099645857, 0.3858521957266006, 0.3380664109450649, 0.26887789729889155, 0.34901627905313815, 0.2698314893463459, 0.34742508499159824, 0.35152276864958487, 0.3899316054994464, 0.39938731375092923, 0.6383078800173757, 0.35332843099734157, 0.413976575938131, 0.4628488579315631, 0.48068049700085436, 0.46169828460962326, 0.6056251370963205, 0.5233562002140706, 0.35486091551424614, 0.5520476883331059, 0.37221035899366983, 0.2820116115627591, 0.3763292002845984 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5345788969238703, 0.4969529963190181, 0.4649874789243917, 0.41318634740760435, 0.546313799621928, 0.4766642051904933, 0.47169819738486596, 0.3818166848915748, 0.4706484126244913, 0.36582560440255596, 0.35459642943677694, 0.5238068939647562, 0.42423555831428944, 0.4745855744751957, 0.4052259209726985, 0.43061974360983973, 0.4027224211940853, 0.5463137996219276, 0.5329121077567514, 0.33515957321525397, 0.5425588509144538, 0.35778764325037954, 0.505082202846066, 0.40346036499799176 ], "bias": [ 53.5397505084618, -16.950975885605207, 31.0069176003248, 13.187916261031317, -112.08793921070637, 26.24416876025755, 19.154601720600105, 10.324728760239548, 15.461761379097608, 30.091937348370486, -8.023950226447687, -46.82432767300117, 16.78547230820782, -21.109689584872548, -8.64298352944391, -13.161358042764428, 38.52453795848751, 54.62177707565069, -78.52652039899493, 27.63964129235864, -68.1379618894943, 2.018963053058388, 15.166440794832125, 16.907729767904566 ], "mae": [ 53.5397505084618, 37.31970402606111, 32.88023516304923, 17.184532956127704, 112.10804158387462, 26.930435283485924, 19.874702772889158, 18.34235701472318, 19.787315522615224, 30.625441054964895, 18.061553250220786, 47.28196765857597, 20.178604944871733, 33.07249738949265, 21.049210286656272, 25.962731570222637, 38.52453795848751, 54.62177707565069, 78.93901688128548, 28.509001129038182, 68.20509688146288, 15.879495976738154, 21.471174980296887, 20.753888912384266 ], "mse": [ 3260.8237857757026, 2216.5582460882983, 1474.762210763177, 402.5974793378222, 15307.371259527883, 913.5015690010098, 575.0819660216749, 469.638807255845, 495.0350245502711, 1377.3489748000395, 690.1134876688163, 3139.6653663139364, 555.1884213888869, 2080.1630161263165, 729.5760523097686, 1381.6174674716465, 1782.6394719392763, 4027.404204344306, 9685.629992498889, 1245.586496561141, 5925.746760015788, 431.9453426311328, 722.8372259518886, 552.8682153204968 ], "var": [ 4373.877841514015, 6239.097254617835, 2305.074055105178, 1870.9173426998943, 5998.18832313248, 1923.1801425003323, 1268.4771100387309, 1907.82699801505, 1694.267705817814, 3775.407218245953, 2128.806458426068, 2403.1073836967694, 1998.9041258004638, 4212.5749870173395, 2212.2997242674983, 1981.0508857643383, 4094.78556667072, 3643.3132296868425, 3070.475387497811, 4724.852567838401, 2959.47471100561, 2911.421162664321, 9592.946676068232, 2540.2389487018318 ], "zero": [ 0.016274178715835124, 0.01913812254152847, 0.017632621519981594, 0.01710376525152859, 0.01913812254152847, 0.01672739492805855, 0.017330440603339572, 0.01891197160555476, 0.016650902750055523, 0.01913812254152847, 0.01913812254152847, 0.01913812254152847, 0.01831029333500668, 0.01898769974543528, 0.01913812254152847, 0.018459618719979306, 0.018610411065800598, 0.01635002874275236, 0.01913812254152847, 0.01913812254152847, 0.01913812254152847, 0.019062911143481878, 0.01913812254152847, 0.01838335491306026 ] }, "crps": 23.76708471956307, "crpss": 0.10325390608491114, "rps": 0.41715714995649794, "rpss": 0.0782534043472648, "mean_bias_mm": -0.11622341051865111, "mean_mae_mm": 35.879294615901536, "mean_rmse_mm": 49.76766890749456, "spread_error_ratio": 1.1588618972997762, "zero_fraction": 0.018340700768964782, "correlation": 0.32860975756801364, "pit_histogram": [ 0.08343, 0.08133, 0.09973, 0.09804, 0.10845, 0.11262, 0.11769, 0.10418, 0.11944, 0.07507 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.1247913892857714 } }, "operational": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 9.682490807320024, 16.71814786477458, 32.82548166050544, 7.873625993302027, 10.187106595624295, 9.851550298278807, 52.79272456359169, 18.82742546384717 ], "crps_clim": [ 9.895516071070114, 14.17903530722128, 38.54879256346864, 8.382690795432643, 12.100478712529222, 9.990734718607943, 72.45749800359884, 14.992025314000559 ], "rps": [ 0.40066158401491037, 0.6138768957211371, 0.47061219941914567, 0.354616557595977, 0.41029902479828123, 0.4039046592277851, 0.33656232494841765, 0.6322630008789267 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.39574475776394596, 0.4437047305666722, 0.546311199561453, 0.36237075360897236, 0.43798495130070614, 0.3932407178861523, 0.5285945268864339, 0.42293901304422793 ], "bias": [ 2.1880272406295127, -8.921294691700679, -36.88326251935537, 9.472355411002024, 9.173955509546616, 16.37215811649042, -59.63437932751068, -16.53036550602387 ], "mae": [ 13.191304000666685, 22.81098213544875, 38.77185303035505, 13.552520589754936, 19.106382744497967, 19.700610919026868, 65.14503622950971, 23.778267122811286 ], "mse": [ 315.2673799840188, 943.9754419683419, 2353.1786772456967, 375.14548983727786, 707.0042604333746, 699.2709886730199, 7927.671668311151, 1222.3730540435788 ], "var": [ 1634.4858862311603, 1042.8494450189103, 3396.3698379304255, 1487.8547510968347, 1036.453124746922, 1690.6525452486967, 5263.58526148509, 968.6639228137461 ], "zero": [ 0.008305204457219044, 0.008305204457219044, 0.008305204457219044, 0.008305204457219044, 0.008305204457219044, 0.008305204457219044, 0.008305204457219044, 0.008305204457219044 ] }, "crps": 19.8448191559055, "crpss": 0.12067907977176584, "rps": 0.4528495308255726, "rpss": -0.026029012246504113, "mean_bias_mm": -10.595350720865252, "mean_mae_mm": 27.007119596508907, "mean_rmse_mm": 42.63784551383967, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0658026609863263, "zero_fraction": 0.008305204457219044, "correlation": 0.49998609782760206, "pit_histogram": [ 0.02866, 0.04133, 0.07471, 0.086, 0.10195, 0.1216, 0.12292, 0.12241, 0.13926, 0.16114 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.3385836876940659 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 16.285897415384905, 8.760643549686511, 35.68429353878305, 11.590999480771805, 11.051232552501137, 14.809208892329224, 83.06525993771231, 17.13664638256612 ], "crps_clim": [ 16.023613765163336, 12.042589782487557, 48.89791233340558, 12.005332284732548, 16.60873516709748, 15.463955391266797, 122.93071411734311, 15.359489400606916 ], "rps": [ 0.4218851423499779, 0.30656439745413494, 0.3411876839164731, 0.3604541172965906, 0.35827532855730365, 0.4503423012620198, 0.26085907822945303, 0.4639964967831362 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4012574985052145, 0.3824738866553415, 0.5455702609428927, 0.3608387586327424, 0.5032563034561837, 0.45825636877918047, 0.5532043323522959, 0.38836007080680135 ], "bias": [ -6.827839789964072, 14.667349218695529, -36.02228724679129, 20.474750377631903, 26.24431819123751, 30.645224355356984, -99.15239730413404, -8.638661096513928 ], "mae": [ 17.42357980873345, 17.056597017374646, 39.76395397092656, 22.024672640650728, 26.591645736669882, 31.993984447873746, 102.57227907474301, 22.934516382691132 ], "mse": [ 523.6535452055999, 390.10288571098016, 2406.6433291108146, 716.4203589591692, 905.6250259552675, 1410.030758659272, 14431.50476930934, 1030.6242821386932 ], "var": [ 2822.8938623615345, 1854.6609995673928, 6510.755812136599, 2739.0221859089224, 1815.3285495673636, 2762.069942347131, 10028.186393940348, 1750.9890715384586 ], "zero": [ 0.018340700768964782, 0.018340700768964782, 0.018340700768964782, 0.018340700768964782, 0.018340700768964782, 0.018340700768964782, 0.018340700768964782, 0.018340700768964782 ] }, "crps": 24.79802271871688, "crpss": 0.23501951189516224, "rps": 0.37044556823113617, "rpss": 0.17523373905513462, "mean_bias_mm": -7.326192911810175, "mean_mae_mm": 35.04515363495789, "mean_rmse_mm": 52.21901587909468, "spread_error_ratio": 1.1782359624660903, "zero_fraction": 0.018340700768964782, "correlation": 0.8694938991570749, "pit_histogram": [ 0.02933, 0.06673, 0.11418, 0.09998, 0.09985, 0.12321, 0.14642, 0.13536, 0.12865, 0.05631 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.2956066717258479 } }, "full": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 15.795763698732674, 19.284587092104175, 11.742059065875951, 10.708949269975047, 51.10049816579094, 9.00894555904892, 8.092342142824371, 14.006694923046549, 7.525516206439819, 13.003940577054992, 10.97767216359925, 21.40201789489861, 10.597000261789981, 15.288703331089787, 13.606171097622559, 26.57706807382273, 13.081196801530755, 16.831787102436085, 36.820982377958586, 13.75673507855219, 31.358174160633318, 9.946623236595633, 14.659733199990107, 10.766389408306955, 10.374470287101772, 16.312191719568503, 32.25862330745421, 8.257924810789886, 10.196808102661084, 10.639318438050852, 52.115446028532986, 17.986816171654766 ], "crps_clim": [ 12.783782020353424, 22.511377726630435, 13.486233432588588, 12.69944443375219, 76.94122015896143, 12.20106868173247, 13.309810711893718, 13.382499762169186, 10.510860190270792, 11.948508158258385, 10.507324363236147, 19.219499581536, 12.15624842534919, 16.33110258238101, 12.70802225555305, 23.51737823123135, 11.65595466198018, 14.642515311603015, 37.809037033490284, 13.847526321731513, 31.179523394808456, 10.189531034239177, 17.927950590511536, 11.88010054552358, 10.658915041984727, 14.411604379011287, 38.49497020875638, 9.149304055972436, 12.957927427879538, 10.730182113419154, 72.85260912174846, 14.681246973704665 ], "rps": [ 0.6244968152680231, 0.34586211284426266, 0.447840715637905, 0.3943265977512438, 0.2324028525112448, 0.3611317615310592, 0.32647876549869226, 0.5089565409053438, 0.3413222122930245, 0.49565024186860934, 0.4189403552008287, 0.5421780078077063, 0.407632173028755, 0.4066173518693317, 0.4935708444374155, 0.619377882212633, 0.4678628356877531, 0.5226987950840845, 0.4908994337728855, 0.37691211503335986, 0.4938877360066859, 0.36523851643348776, 0.2988483587125237, 0.4209769696635171, 0.4176456917838792, 0.5884147498616661, 0.4434456329008153, 0.34486903096256943, 0.38858782646088574, 0.410993465763492, 0.3213569545704282, 0.6181610969225475 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5099729077980537, 0.45223457520613386, 0.5042070796721, 0.4223319286224781, 0.5541349166685237, 0.4891341241458317, 0.46260551253834703, 0.41790847293771854, 0.47376507250073746, 0.44625492156786695, 0.3665742104158703, 0.46239929772210925, 0.44039805540566207, 0.4473385695884163, 0.41904326359193766, 0.4782106643198007, 0.43099085878539034, 0.4595141391239318, 0.5079472946014302, 0.4035582725551801, 0.49665385808099777, 0.3644779560242052, 0.4652165601075734, 0.42884001042431774, 0.4110384555452049, 0.43924247151695794, 0.5531184205365902, 0.36375626291307794, 0.4448249078788689, 0.3952033064964951, 0.5357304983934386, 0.4226854013145511 ], "bias": [ 33.82420749331171, -2.4128030719041687, 24.4092981669277, 6.128186421762417, -60.499320246920284, 19.494664914317003, 15.572872847092286, -1.4730477180226784, 12.727980455963896, 26.954176597897384, 1.0437981255486284, -22.391923300463425, 9.651580367465476, -3.0117037566715563, 4.7649885293180585, -20.94625554068608, 29.420779075474083, 33.65394105585184, -36.97034938093552, 7.493019090848243, -33.508443614945115, 1.980309677160716, 7.589301993711986, 13.032529752022679, 4.649840252804062, -7.2254245691258125, -35.09020235050249, 12.010857859902865, 11.266200477500822, 19.681930675964157, -58.898867111986725, -15.062318974407845 ], "mae": [ 35.35454299331037, 25.05528861644582, 25.779005933075176, 17.02860186209421, 64.52689433537165, 20.026014339563382, 16.86898367406944, 19.462619828387723, 14.998892722023609, 27.634960117794986, 15.231102651958969, 26.015062668759697, 17.47838370838074, 20.53317689056424, 19.83689951250262, 32.77678955859907, 29.583807629311252, 34.58893876906473, 45.867247138511615, 23.234444547511938, 39.520294488426686, 13.29164140946714, 18.966749160414974, 18.702090364835975, 14.36777609655845, 22.81621978919363, 36.93548084903424, 14.826055917733685, 19.487673785931438, 21.893988040549036, 64.62851570344544, 22.698714081494217 ], "mse": [ 1837.4687724795751, 1140.1428791869964, 1062.4998306563452, 481.25678707060547, 7696.182040776443, 645.1285494926991, 529.6712990984403, 634.2353524360501, 342.9450504984658, 1238.2502067268683, 443.8921800196205, 1474.2810362622988, 526.2538941823174, 947.8717166594043, 662.0822210899174, 1893.7755682656193, 1369.0619323386384, 2141.6410478054904, 4508.6660557874675, 1055.880381524122, 2892.042731200164, 357.06791115294885, 640.478261896306, 599.5423527780326, 340.89232604336684, 910.2243046464448, 2157.1806700688358, 414.2268790284342, 713.7649247801622, 793.311123747747, 7830.124607888395, 1105.7869082466602 ], "var": [ 2749.437741995357, 3997.914414458614, 1605.1301094016458, 1316.5956205267594, 4856.194056158534, 1380.9824481284443, 962.1605302605335, 1360.2078293485731, 1180.5671922088677, 2366.618857838117, 1557.798838916349, 1562.8430596688245, 1428.0984820126048, 2549.249800066335, 1708.2912444450678, 1270.7850645759086, 2582.9977676936464, 2423.624574058153, 2135.36194683271, 2790.8782438944986, 2072.216290388339, 1814.3316284961834, 5390.1488195987695, 1659.7852182595504, 1829.0607734320358, 1160.1874246702841, 3841.4656488356954, 1675.932783884121, 1127.3965547232403, 1896.227957449985, 4891.8918199878935, 1062.3653545859097 ], "zero": [ 0.006494317862940404, 0.007388212601316566, 0.006887369731833966, 0.00666892432083463, 0.007388212601316566, 0.006625451451107339, 0.006843430814491574, 0.007322778084850231, 0.006603319202750575, 0.007388212601316566, 0.007388212601316566, 0.007388212601316566, 0.007039754458053639, 0.0073229422087537285, 0.007388212601316566, 0.007191894291633379, 0.007083111437551982, 0.006538011368935983, 0.007388212601316566, 0.007388212601316566, 0.007388212601316566, 0.007344703876211554, 0.007388212601316566, 0.007039131599668188, 0.0073664655436693795, 0.007388212601316566, 0.007388212601316566, 0.007388212601316566, 0.006843651659805935, 0.007061711126429466, 0.007388212601316566, 0.00732264518285966 ] }, "crps": 17.62753592986044, "crpss": 0.10075532267384524, "rps": 0.4355495137589581, "rpss": 0.03674865796219118, "mean_bias_mm": -0.06688111892892667, "mean_mae_mm": 26.250526787012067, "mean_rmse_mm": 39.2849485346467, "spread_error_ratio": 1.1923074319376288, "zero_fraction": 0.007157330957525423, "correlation": 0.29696835370028785, "pit_histogram": [ 0.09414, 0.07662, 0.08983, 0.09863, 0.1051, 0.11139, 0.11792, 0.11124, 0.10864, 0.0865 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.1085747986276307 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 23.526405788603675, 29.992299867882668, 15.185560539027865, 9.586353545017575, 83.63192087564477, 12.130439564781977, 9.136031637825804, 10.988398909384046, 10.403592107916369, 14.51178264850627, 15.618277017132408, 38.10875989916612, 11.182397730983698, 27.426940791785857, 17.674337586448637, 20.355117410477295, 15.766978182838665, 26.518133526398696, 64.22232608379053, 14.372640117444842, 54.275893465005495, 13.467013731530242, 19.17404624044375, 11.137442431979045, 16.961947998032706, 9.37932091042064, 36.64338488188001, 12.030816211917154, 11.863194368427019, 15.42679421568522, 84.46985345685559, 17.267611718161696 ], "crps_clim": [ 18.971560801065813, 35.6367147291537, 18.636916636476265, 13.008245857985397, 122.09582939281907, 17.78179646878491, 17.998112084481825, 13.076782675945864, 14.529083489713967, 13.24418302159305, 14.803193391112085, 34.07821828870073, 14.676722636955915, 29.418403592206143, 16.790159921611743, 19.251560181834897, 13.33628914107295, 23.960236587257803, 65.78672153414695, 11.854513425492197, 53.7131677313048, 13.396064979901809, 23.74020434353359, 12.389359531750223, 16.618238808520573, 13.04598803914388, 49.69954751558125, 12.770847456632547, 18.242786444806796, 16.533666942942173, 125.40466313928738, 15.824528080373357 ], "rps": [ 0.6562190894161513, 0.3604108718140917, 0.39168124392355924, 0.3422302770175204, 0.275582323423577, 0.35802309300494184, 0.27761108024007985, 0.35504652917723906, 0.3517923793260811, 0.366906252281775, 0.38889281780074136, 0.6412036832424032, 0.3569996438608403, 0.4166165337111455, 0.4532284202825971, 0.481689115556032, 0.47020882820703475, 0.591342585685188, 0.5434838885428962, 0.35058183444993546, 0.5688266456385371, 0.3566356608246485, 0.2837602194258075, 0.372119682227303, 0.4326933315830618, 0.3045471880610759, 0.33338984898461355, 0.34790731662310165, 0.3628777727977869, 0.4334246999138926, 0.2461558320823044, 0.4607917953663905 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.546221849426887, 0.5006209898385597, 0.47463997727575263, 0.41815000367394756, 0.5629552549427683, 0.49498688948174796, 0.477643485597547, 0.3820838914918218, 0.4675924281943521, 0.34140859723145817, 0.32837245319421293, 0.5374315918996531, 0.42791161191971255, 0.478997744827492, 0.3859727031231156, 0.43079003405987637, 0.4091224667534369, 0.5629552549427682, 0.5473749777298041, 0.31762780372493987, 0.5567250638845919, 0.3314668314118201, 0.5013535927665776, 0.3938931012781259, 0.4005237610004716, 0.37374789498522504, 0.5536094138716743, 0.347079043610374, 0.5202270950400264, 0.4553182914080023, 0.5617070387526095, 0.38432907468585364 ], "bias": [ 55.05948168249611, -14.194771839416049, 32.22908000640809, 14.367841187910264, -106.58389666196278, 27.39299440194611, 20.098295473146266, 11.579275658647779, 16.67965203411237, 31.732331380269073, -6.5452409430065766, -44.587152430803314, 18.042571532102514, -18.210750906037585, -7.0208575742777315, -11.839219465283314, 40.23749665552528, 55.519882785237, -75.75108515523782, 29.594590946942553, -65.59458718285907, 3.6276351284129116, 18.371348505750245, 18.287000136909402, -5.297992234460615, 16.579215236400845, -34.52751314656679, 22.793898375176976, 28.188282188793977, 33.063098279725494, -101.39512697220673, -7.613791232610115 ], "mae": [ 55.05948168249611, 34.385040511216765, 34.394466947205096, 18.157373814656243, 106.60122695858352, 27.977217501007114, 20.778184008579753, 19.822299331914337, 21.0255685231933, 32.03629783593633, 17.90251963931513, 45.12923767630446, 21.705509007943814, 31.608175324261943, 20.276409234037693, 26.714181145127505, 40.23749665552528, 55.519882785237, 76.73825424612116, 30.27900682738399, 65.67933260409033, 15.698482290786668, 23.635955755774315, 22.07224769224761, 17.34433092745803, 18.90455012206681, 38.17954713849855, 23.643252738819186, 28.418813937097823, 33.750531807437895, 103.84463703915603, 22.349356583790478 ], "mse": [ 3360.460881611123, 1925.5128398425861, 1568.3749019522834, 442.33088064905075, 14092.311365522126, 952.4296430625586, 603.2889504313886, 545.9831226214701, 559.6630943814494, 1413.7050068037727, 647.8008283418362, 2981.6655508017716, 633.8943788049206, 1942.9008094841297, 684.8315695346222, 1446.486286939103, 1867.457332312599, 3983.358934145201, 9409.575300753191, 1367.8379512507704, 5547.790497892867, 404.9631831415604, 856.190767363326, 621.3618425818154, 503.59651744631185, 467.0187530590765, 2258.0379423859154, 788.7278902348022, 1001.6378859768943, 1502.6336505233537, 14723.245044671583, 990.232999144667 ], "var": [ 4782.0914472549675, 6726.308612358533, 2522.9309610218065, 2035.5913554285123, 7927.066701619184, 2113.003678547615, 1381.9068222982426, 2076.605407989983, 1878.0590982413792, 4090.1998409366806, 2324.444409237538, 2719.2920173277416, 2177.16297958204, 4828.438986011214, 2409.225371141045, 2102.4945337870463, 4482.343211533129, 3854.491307252781, 3484.820664411984, 5144.9389270348565, 3323.191981756399, 3137.841497692277, 10494.91615328318, 2774.7782772218616, 3191.799590038457, 2101.3939559668966, 7589.3336013557755, 3085.0579551984993, 1978.0178985879456, 3010.630570974377, 9159.580762903715, 1907.4660684814921 ], "zero": [ 0.014197305906466756, 0.016322167454561817, 0.015205182825672195, 0.014812805594239323, 0.016322167454561817, 0.01453356309618091, 0.014980984081066826, 0.01615437805045229, 0.014476810835081889, 0.016322167454561817, 0.016322167454561817, 0.016322167454561817, 0.01570797159165855, 0.016210563444557194, 0.016322167454561817, 0.015818761393412435, 0.015930639585473395, 0.01425358173288922, 0.016322167454561817, 0.016322167454561817, 0.016322167454561817, 0.016266365449559506, 0.016322167454561817, 0.01576217856892411, 0.01626640291253094, 0.016322167454561817, 0.016322167454561817, 0.016322167454561817, 0.015093079464166121, 0.015652234936553967, 0.016322167454561817, 0.016154037258665214 ] }, "crps": 24.138625420668635, "crpss": 0.14203738898147622, "rps": 0.404152515140386, "rpss": 0.10640342220135413, "mean_bias_mm": -0.178687942150475, "mean_mae_mm": 35.933402134164695, "mean_rmse_mm": 50.02977444846848, "spread_error_ratio": 1.2281676624402642, "zero_fraction": 0.015812099721606757, "correlation": 0.5258583294682166, "pit_histogram": [ 0.07611, 0.08345, 0.09875, 0.09818, 0.10535, 0.1129, 0.12261, 0.11722, 0.12484, 0.06061 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.16582534597450507 } }, "distribution_full": { "ethiopia": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9994527536075167, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.002938696888801643 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0888281775777509, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.0942702677917909 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.8573667881148551, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.19320376746609202 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9642693212721041, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.06635221485557927 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0462123328517627, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.07497301544092057 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": 2.07477715134298e-18 } }, "ondj_domain": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9960393361415536, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.004094889032618625 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0822520626300123, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.08190113248260118 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.8755779340039349, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.17460499523878553 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9486834246590239, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.07226593618059986 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0508648566850638, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.07934076520592541 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": 5.7535094337628845e-18 } } } }, "loci": { "training": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 19.038669469984846, 18.59921884296037, 12.552550289982117, 10.822029761118358, 54.395146049634874, 9.09435341786225, 7.54444387664083, 13.693289314573393, 6.750025818898154, 12.43086998918785, 10.057403046069295, 21.378658390878442, 11.060302938635655, 14.530152592655279, 13.063732172550054, 25.674696325220857, 14.106537989149423, 19.173760376693625, 36.12009405674942, 15.952112232127291, 31.927843553784825, 9.859521176785714, 13.209068815861173, 10.53756273907545 ], "crps_clim": [ 12.317536543467577, 23.35796459817729, 12.697045070793552, 12.202051839195779, 80.47285365334993, 11.548375983365016, 12.678451972317543, 13.236171134630228, 9.77344956703739, 11.308094418769002, 10.495885058363076, 19.78743863254775, 11.56945900909618, 16.417052730597515, 12.717960992194332, 23.466029141135742, 10.74931047318028, 14.20169205564696, 38.727205395504946, 14.581796635287228, 32.862113763760696, 10.161605103260042, 18.582117729180727, 10.941519369614019 ], "rps": [ 0.6961063937961992, 0.3464969916549019, 0.5100127397992205, 0.41967605066141306, 0.17669142842598512, 0.36336975485817335, 0.3157101518991388, 0.48660905263624415, 0.3269708819169612, 0.4580620496380596, 0.35481026375254493, 0.5107763869474048, 0.4612607498260349, 0.3916413980419586, 0.425352583461376, 0.6034636004401713, 0.5040263363030462, 0.587690475019098, 0.46066640310321744, 0.43995411075674384, 0.45241986442660276, 0.3584653885109847, 0.25730682725236237, 0.45608701566431104 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.503268882341884, 0.45696255193683133, 0.4925766326091148, 0.42240641708616883, 0.5420235822074022, 0.4714149775295732, 0.455605992500462, 0.4281783876000402, 0.46522974758146945, 0.45001555732494986, 0.3793571949725829, 0.4624359120204484, 0.4373678925332641, 0.4400525449202173, 0.42589693023153363, 0.47068205353537346, 0.4255615214855194, 0.4516170482691049, 0.49843663106201835, 0.41189108424683096, 0.4992305010159512, 0.3787617113337185, 0.4739156168036444, 0.434610826319066 ], "bias": [ 31.218735708083102, -6.270895523466724, 21.885453006005484, 3.5798958130678886, -66.48196167329404, 17.1159879908809, 13.443116393996563, -4.141896407727056, 10.496101174228997, 24.32798873206239, -1.9526319473825602, -25.027078779054794, 7.171370947354783, -5.773579068569669, 1.7174778909266517, -23.318439991229138, 26.884359275009924, 30.871649788318273, -40.395429014789265, 4.594071962799734, -36.85221662384167, -0.5635720381259315, 3.951782543257795, 10.573049302715324 ], "mae": [ 33.724247584340965, 25.503382098779532, 23.413749063162072, 15.927060916762017, 69.07971735469862, 18.125003883211246, 15.295273540555886, 18.606677623075385, 13.192539064474987, 25.54338742521731, 14.816477076128253, 27.774765210224672, 15.884558652963827, 20.67363438303059, 19.42366567568951, 32.28495406018371, 27.160996035075318, 32.52501159246526, 46.664082767908056, 24.03013613264871, 41.6285054997668, 13.436616927577411, 18.61917095460569, 16.71291487054571 ], "mse": [ 1742.7948898628547, 1260.922833800294, 916.1916250045215, 437.2291856940786, 8465.340273880705, 555.5732399382514, 466.03124569782887, 584.1701876965683, 276.76233602382194, 1103.9632201640825, 466.84270890510965, 1617.3500954054264, 429.6391563418608, 1004.2687772982787, 652.1398923094581, 1876.3453223985432, 1205.3286911225002, 2049.8034109000546, 4643.483810839121, 1167.7509647835232, 3178.659676430272, 419.7871450967845, 614.1627781824575, 481.06667949509796 ], "var": [ 1468.4691095585151, 2854.3474760779045, 963.2460699587086, 853.6542029173194, 2013.9269501904907, 1082.6943233028567, 1030.7051749371046, 626.3457588946718, 952.4481446637682, 1728.3823715370556, 938.4812306886132, 1069.0263732657443, 1314.3833798897372, 1509.0071904646607, 1240.1733488026287, 962.7915506369282, 1655.8747957636003, 1395.6177481804953, 1320.1368531207277, 1482.6646003507199, 1291.886789136494, 1139.9287173634534, 2156.8591899757, 886.3629192191815 ], "zero": [ 0.051582861102114026, 0.046681905648781837, 0.05156562085453657, 0.06495562858252214, 0.029348840720250582, 0.06473160997178172, 0.08867342160059151, 0.05538580037252709, 0.08405079689462448, 0.06197163155849631, 0.06002435076947152, 0.07656819314592955, 0.06678179759404114, 0.051751772267308954, 0.06427385800871688, 0.08927590917145402, 0.0597764131989617, 0.0493559735032392, 0.06131400937729066, 0.05263318459106537, 0.061643084103567246, 0.06270624717494491, 0.03403673489544637, 0.05492462903479296 ] }, "crps": 17.148835134878315, "crpss": 0.07481375668320478, "rps": 0.4318177874496731, "rpss": 0.04724185606493225, "mean_bias_mm": -0.1227775224488763, "mean_mae_mm": 25.41860534971215, "mean_rmse_mm": 38.522508651475164, "spread_error_ratio": 0.9469557677683347, "zero_fraction": 0.06016726142260237, "correlation": 0.23852037206017898, "pit_histogram": [ 0.08212, 0.08137, 0.09065, 0.11042, 0.12006, 0.12077, 0.1065, 0.08805, 0.09057, 0.10949 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.13448293557764004 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 31.698234055237677, 28.173136273793684, 17.327055526637277, 9.784802506838151, 87.747729282611, 13.356638482150128, 8.51215996593327, 10.818796208185587, 9.704366172882118, 15.442816275271243, 13.560219150510777, 36.153885860133876, 11.3176102481833, 25.233934489583802, 16.964370920092843, 18.0954231011514, 19.708792369141072, 32.88934333019841, 61.99839091274228, 16.390496980888248, 53.08430359158109, 11.770411448560091, 15.89010470318572, 11.603864176148912 ], "crps_clim": [ 18.52395116853421, 36.87672256900793, 18.170789562622396, 12.289909839909377, 126.90605491615098, 17.41989047035546, 17.706970523055745, 12.351304505468207, 13.796387526958524, 13.076262007562349, 14.560429422573055, 34.92849143385597, 13.963924627676032, 30.04724509587627, 16.82171605773241, 18.528924529932958, 12.89918086433115, 23.58960486668408, 67.53597007272384, 11.371976284610398, 55.90409404224628, 13.21381402559538, 23.974094843997456, 11.63096415863434 ], "rps": [ 0.9087231085525795, 0.3081676727770399, 0.4622090203546151, 0.3579353817883771, 0.12445214392448281, 0.3755615240400031, 0.2671596123704771, 0.3699488088112562, 0.33458463989468556, 0.4085110984176256, 0.3264626968080009, 0.5376235778128542, 0.36899204584246803, 0.3435150603444437, 0.4154435406932338, 0.4391023672933618, 0.5599891493658732, 0.787033858443315, 0.40730715924041094, 0.40090955330268313, 0.4250585674561682, 0.30298481013446593, 0.15945497977267895, 0.4435673790836562 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5345788969238703, 0.4969529963190181, 0.4649874789243917, 0.41318634740760435, 0.546313799621928, 0.4766642051904933, 0.47169819738486596, 0.3818166848915748, 0.4706484126244913, 0.36582560440255596, 0.35459642943677694, 0.5238068939647562, 0.42423555831428944, 0.4745855744751957, 0.4052259209726985, 0.43061974360983973, 0.4027224211940853, 0.5463137996219276, 0.5329121077567514, 0.33515957321525397, 0.5425588509144538, 0.35778764325037954, 0.505082202846066, 0.40346036499799176 ], "bias": [ 53.77501387196957, -16.597689513683886, 30.659535805453068, 12.864788334009678, -111.18785698905762, 25.989759495922176, 18.718435111740906, 9.73837434661648, 15.245168120534835, 30.14514614589245, -8.57382828701327, -46.88614897495, 16.54080715296556, -20.519251380990372, -8.746657865337557, -13.50128467391444, 38.869619582692856, 54.39402217026379, -78.67599268319883, 27.85078701941972, -68.05333867787377, 1.7332839078272018, 16.197547169400124, 16.453553657196082 ], "mae": [ 53.77501387196957, 36.86395998624741, 32.53152967442728, 16.85189707322817, 111.21503989628793, 26.72305544837737, 19.528204055490665, 17.78717178043738, 19.49918504921139, 30.631237874753634, 17.81407066236526, 47.35135628687075, 19.934180936885294, 32.963650661781, 21.17588988582458, 25.76131752492597, 38.869619582692856, 54.39402217026379, 79.03236329940108, 28.688602929456515, 68.119523896545, 15.738787483694185, 22.272896877165156, 20.334705255114255 ], "mse": [ 3271.4091444359888, 2179.344679260117, 1464.5016804699999, 395.5257770644967, 15222.685858011646, 907.8667719583353, 573.7225050117469, 454.1820525012583, 485.33645193936434, 1374.2096129775173, 690.7871157035615, 3138.7770157063887, 546.9724599685828, 2072.319952851708, 732.8775816255633, 1372.6734678370356, 1804.104128708328, 4006.293881629816, 9693.900595322484, 1256.0697937676468, 5910.893502886758, 429.934349244361, 748.4572128602608, 537.6073859305448 ], "var": [ 2161.730649659585, 4043.2977936848743, 1509.3390179410615, 1162.255683765082, 3048.536470063504, 1500.272890987952, 1643.8546729086008, 902.9048097900753, 1413.8906675774426, 2493.4486835580865, 1268.295551857108, 1528.0923242907463, 1569.6669238574812, 2398.375039790242, 1747.0176615994794, 1613.7111169707293, 2558.1891855192025, 1962.4033126000197, 1976.7642304146166, 2306.8324703214407, 1842.5816300973183, 1808.816833961745, 3971.9153777992306, 1169.9940878450805 ], "zero": [ 0.0503476887569484, 0.06041276403678193, 0.08205174053672569, 0.09493127807975343, 0.02725799669634054, 0.09901592601864843, 0.13276339190477357, 0.08276903224241042, 0.12778883460013737, 0.08178206137435949, 0.08943783843337806, 0.10010606684906788, 0.10005995941106711, 0.05576777942449626, 0.10286960877139543, 0.11693576972968786, 0.05744537557160426, 0.0659598190634797, 0.07423932071476051, 0.0593779838002387, 0.09542919538476613, 0.07291852676135639, 0.03425449374729972, 0.053830680411728 ] }, "crps": 24.051120251318412, "crpss": 0.09253707831069757, "rps": 0.4097790731885315, "rpss": 0.09455593480622204, "mean_bias_mm": -0.14859196475480196, "mean_mae_mm": 35.744053423475684, "mean_rmse_mm": 49.69509238750908, "spread_error_ratio": 0.8961781071147525, "zero_fraction": 0.07990638051338356, "correlation": 0.3369436623898566, "pit_histogram": [ 0.12724, 0.099, 0.0946, 0.10934, 0.11454, 0.09319, 0.08355, 0.07368, 0.08758, 0.11728 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.13681484478006156 } }, "operational": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 9.652719977062196, 16.96098380981631, 30.478024655160233, 9.027759428373013, 11.29420141030464, 11.347907316288834, 51.692012886720434, 18.78892610974683 ], "crps_clim": [ 9.895516071070114, 14.17903530722128, 38.54879256346864, 8.382690795432643, 12.100478712529222, 9.990734718607943, 72.45749800359884, 14.992025314000559 ], "rps": [ 0.37979312057579445, 0.6012528654799734, 0.4013277011962613, 0.37224996683785383, 0.45233598122902724, 0.43904903409458584, 0.26840919721845924, 0.6210583844417494 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.39574475776394596, 0.4437047305666722, 0.546311199561453, 0.36237075360897236, 0.43798495130070614, 0.3932407178861523, 0.5285945268864339, 0.42293901304422793 ], "bias": [ 2.1492874352619213, -8.90186822819181, -36.597725941495334, 9.49834238528041, 9.090691060545613, 16.24977493884645, -59.11298726214563, -16.50895686485556 ], "mae": [ 13.205829004908704, 22.632119033769975, 38.56115748824947, 13.546318673356643, 19.066925171342394, 19.643341567578073, 64.51158000572164, 23.739589341108147 ], "mse": [ 317.1579757442876, 934.6212750898056, 2331.735428037783, 374.6991840546055, 707.3918349845886, 696.5281989984244, 7782.113744599246, 1219.6835279320974 ], "var": [ 1238.419235997003, 883.1151025127308, 1892.1487304584266, 1069.4693266580875, 880.3625430146224, 1361.5739523033367, 2022.9684813256267, 810.9491271990784 ], "zero": [ 0.07358320953806814, 0.08634166059093011, 0.04130342164560683, 0.07172018843806754, 0.08453966654470746, 0.061580465324445596, 0.03341019435666783, 0.09653861638587209 ] }, "crps": 19.905316949184062, "crpss": 0.11799843174773728, "rps": 0.4419345313842131, "rpss": -0.0012987092801466371, "mean_bias_mm": -10.516680309594243, "mean_mae_mm": 26.863357535754382, "mean_rmse_mm": 42.37323915138073, "spread_error_ratio": 0.8409863781933575, "zero_fraction": 0.0686271778530457, "correlation": 0.49950873034148857, "pit_histogram": [ 0.02272, 0.04917, 0.07318, 0.08948, 0.11619, 0.11939, 0.11302, 0.11004, 0.11162, 0.19517 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.33087497017262935 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 15.257129103081885, 10.022708348376975, 30.29497136164467, 13.72149505142489, 12.700832793233179, 17.22736776493799, 80.46144428462426, 17.026406327968033 ], "crps_clim": [ 16.023613765163336, 12.042589782487557, 48.89791233340558, 12.005332284732548, 16.60873516709748, 15.463955391266797, 122.93071411734311, 15.359489400606916 ], "rps": [ 0.3695179299710714, 0.337207434883286, 0.19721905726378233, 0.40825318686300066, 0.4289933120119526, 0.5045422108107411, 0.08370715455640262, 0.45799251582449213 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4012574985052145, 0.3824738866553415, 0.5455702609428927, 0.3608387586327424, 0.5032563034561837, 0.45825636877918047, 0.5532043323522959, 0.38836007080680135 ], "bias": [ -6.8058881590380995, 14.536166464888987, -35.15071766553217, 20.39406477357272, 25.929867816392793, 30.343605861996334, -97.48834179304471, -8.910322799553027 ], "mae": [ 17.52410488516358, 16.9400524031108, 39.13673454454631, 21.93411141424576, 26.297275906653635, 31.827200842849713, 100.90702011419675, 23.06316099471355 ], "mse": [ 530.2509038228906, 387.55185225393706, 2346.106841780563, 714.2638532683329, 899.7509689812421, 1402.350639667053, 14060.705161721891, 1035.9621893290287 ], "var": [ 1858.033363868302, 1403.1807086997194, 3377.4499660744946, 1746.732275548688, 1364.7330178640432, 1984.8769252691288, 3361.183877331351, 1326.1412659534546 ], "zero": [ 0.0868678624872926, 0.09561907388379952, 0.034273344347112, 0.0834124616540597, 0.0976531751023991, 0.0804408784837445, 0.026136855098724727, 0.12641008668507428 ] }, "crps": 24.589044379411487, "crpss": 0.24146616910725183, "rps": 0.34842910027309115, "rpss": 0.22425157464073797, "mean_bias_mm": -7.143945687539647, "mean_mae_mm": 34.70370763818501, "mean_rmse_mm": 51.692531388519924, "spread_error_ratio": 0.8764852507732832, "zero_fraction": 0.07885171721777581, "correlation": 0.8695997906629603, "pit_histogram": [ 0.04422, 0.09064, 0.11051, 0.11219, 0.12389, 0.11148, 0.10258, 0.10209, 0.08715, 0.11524 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.1559834180257227 } }, "full": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 19.677704266065067, 17.747807779365896, 13.792153253496929, 11.256628686272746, 50.086450471740754, 9.797103096923907, 8.104642283287124, 13.987501105868272, 7.324982308915511, 13.117920718503365, 9.784879831749787, 19.952598903992858, 11.694547970199373, 14.364285587563131, 12.874448455055704, 25.542869832832157, 15.227729852620664, 19.961742691215814, 35.25952023710668, 15.122124378882345, 29.69519642541937, 9.298822525360162, 13.218945348966068, 11.47009368600936, 9.849322913783668, 16.502530261575124, 28.991141727366, 9.545513958849524, 11.241923780974112, 12.263981385776798, 51.144013622306, 17.704178631655367 ], "crps_clim": [ 12.783782020353424, 22.511377726630435, 13.486233432588588, 12.69944443375219, 76.94122015896143, 12.20106868173247, 13.309810711893718, 13.382499762169186, 10.510860190270792, 11.948508158258385, 10.507324363236147, 19.219499581536, 12.15624842534919, 16.33110258238101, 12.70802225555305, 23.51737823123135, 11.65595466198018, 14.642515311603015, 37.809037033490284, 13.847526321731513, 31.179523394808456, 10.189531034239177, 17.927950590511536, 11.88010054552358, 10.658915041984727, 14.411604379011287, 38.49497020875638, 9.149304055972436, 12.957927427879538, 10.730182113419154, 72.85260912174846, 14.681246973704665 ], "rps": [ 0.7020818598489754, 0.3392991417071121, 0.5395340039826461, 0.4271875469893079, 0.1599931840123844, 0.38760667970900453, 0.32544258484789595, 0.4906890149948142, 0.3347463620171853, 0.4624994302006883, 0.35172804109934663, 0.48594374550108527, 0.4748212531065891, 0.3942673656499349, 0.4237485059507827, 0.6071500041376431, 0.5298099801364675, 0.6108041236398766, 0.45852831243882886, 0.4308957274876459, 0.43222777465311385, 0.35472949074097404, 0.2535796800878275, 0.45616206219631683, 0.3777831926086874, 0.5776416651145891, 0.3757156439402582, 0.3693137498442424, 0.42873074648292747, 0.45008557053850473, 0.2589919837960418, 0.59604082050247 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5099729077980537, 0.45223457520613386, 0.5042070796721, 0.4223319286224781, 0.5541349166685237, 0.4891341241458317, 0.46260551253834703, 0.41790847293771854, 0.47376507250073746, 0.44625492156786695, 0.3665742104158703, 0.46239929772210925, 0.44039805540566207, 0.4473385695884163, 0.41904326359193766, 0.4782106643198007, 0.43099085878539034, 0.4595141391239318, 0.5079472946014302, 0.4035582725551801, 0.49665385808099777, 0.3644779560242052, 0.4652165601075734, 0.42884001042431774, 0.4110384555452049, 0.43924247151695794, 0.5531184205365902, 0.36375626291307794, 0.4448249078788689, 0.3952033064964951, 0.5357304983934386, 0.4226854013145511 ], "bias": [ 33.7252230730923, -2.4640357974485867, 24.277315566383777, 5.9504630701755055, -60.783784371245794, 19.428920564098647, 15.441999735711931, -1.6695312939246865, 12.667358788458012, 26.865966404949123, 0.77192034161501, -22.402915543276304, 9.482941153056123, -2.8503340972761926, 4.600841274421921, -21.041697826707235, 29.380787412301373, 33.4878212377702, -37.10231927217211, 7.541414064141029, -33.68519103343128, 1.8328152217187514, 7.643758725987573, 12.769505162610898, 4.565533876195005, -7.229281376456656, -34.87858405525897, 12.003792421828404, 11.179307428915209, 19.519544148433894, -58.56672649459144, -15.061327189251173 ], "mae": [ 35.27130741795474, 24.785961363740643, 25.644151199654004, 16.87046203237789, 64.34640162274731, 19.96808094737409, 16.72595145835767, 19.15146842900343, 14.89990737296336, 27.540228648778776, 15.043168281168816, 26.062000425394967, 17.337429467363286, 20.479731944703694, 19.743969726395893, 32.56701378825904, 29.564860873439848, 34.41779020086219, 45.98989704186242, 23.29577286179761, 39.428968550941526, 13.21325097258358, 19.194536786110707, 18.471503521303667, 14.35979939392276, 22.612626532393573, 36.838807886063734, 14.800384634634586, 19.45181895992279, 21.778370653608484, 64.12275718952367, 22.66074663071348 ], "mse": [ 1832.9192559190142, 1126.1023599070106, 1058.3040531346387, 477.2596174262566, 7707.787591245562, 642.7491076521698, 529.7073039889905, 623.2920928793718, 339.1268222033793, 1232.7485664533967, 440.66227840014574, 1474.8337392526141, 521.5012309618402, 945.7189714073936, 658.1749646030091, 1879.8784718638672, 1372.3825231019807, 2128.7406964681018, 4517.149176581566, 1060.8662024221783, 2888.875244922889, 355.5053645687308, 653.589194319873, 590.946108412852, 342.7493368164153, 900.2760490217911, 2144.1070291223746, 413.2653881033308, 712.9081936940094, 788.9667647980857, 7721.279666799722, 1102.7834037035923 ], "var": [ 1604.806869686895, 3175.362102456161, 1053.0132557718655, 968.255908897482, 2372.752723682645, 1207.387656519071, 1124.538748801024, 707.5007182220293, 1067.9362480366963, 1926.5010134206111, 1064.2327265320357, 1235.3793399586875, 1479.7184572395954, 1699.166614406539, 1404.777273709152, 1051.8904023917862, 1841.090936918838, 1539.5998645596417, 1489.860596343195, 1652.2015643107768, 1473.4767844168819, 1250.4423727833348, 2351.780316967506, 985.0783114027272, 1392.284237125438, 971.6884174774416, 1970.1234963546694, 1202.2721441891624, 974.950169685416, 1534.7920972190166, 2042.710196020911, 886.7423952775233 ], "zero": [ 0.04569988477701292, 0.0402775318831657, 0.044888047844640955, 0.05849579502078507, 0.024401617064895197, 0.05639766711095942, 0.07885823243880669, 0.046553529029617485, 0.07519432111481518, 0.054788545652398844, 0.05118221062934099, 0.06770567804699812, 0.0586511786013904, 0.045129651220304885, 0.05626803161671633, 0.08058578502921476, 0.05342432147694185, 0.042567579784324495, 0.05493266144702381, 0.046104533238927596, 0.05469758119847681, 0.05533454998766499, 0.02892743215433994, 0.04612179632378176, 0.06700656609958673, 0.07907396897809557, 0.03596327993600229, 0.06564231148494304, 0.07559056130694354, 0.05464842790092279, 0.029245022881586796, 0.09105828205185913 ] }, "crps": 17.675103311865612, "crpss": 0.09832873762800043, "rps": 0.4333681014988803, "rpss": 0.041573019419797075, "mean_bias_mm": -0.14370308372424168, "mean_mae_mm": 26.14497271299757, "mean_rmse_mm": 39.20505259615628, "spread_error_ratio": 0.9744334179450798, "zero_fraction": 0.055169268229140124, "correlation": 0.29761526976372976, "pit_histogram": [ 0.07567, 0.07899, 0.09283, 0.1125, 0.12452, 0.12222, 0.10591, 0.08845, 0.08931, 0.10959 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.1494911040056623 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 32.51626090989374, 26.273887924315094, 18.182236793274537, 10.167709858791092, 82.10364764283418, 13.769267974215033, 8.736816227393385, 11.664072577737773, 10.277523537723338, 15.659858051168039, 13.078261164273131, 34.511130206896965, 11.986747289298965, 24.546114786413888, 16.31945100261053, 18.425542456605868, 20.35822464001415, 33.26622506961883, 59.960785772291096, 17.27975175792263, 50.36828036500605, 11.485316116130347, 16.626968292494432, 12.338957793071732, 14.993567783678916, 10.677680950568893, 29.41758019168408, 14.406779238581464, 13.644143059963854, 18.09164262412256, 82.20004810296217, 16.607572507852787 ], "crps_clim": [ 18.971560801065813, 35.6367147291537, 18.636916636476265, 13.008245857985397, 122.09582939281907, 17.78179646878491, 17.998112084481825, 13.076782675945864, 14.529083489713967, 13.24418302159305, 14.803193391112085, 34.07821828870073, 14.676722636955915, 29.418403592206143, 16.790159921611743, 19.251560181834897, 13.33628914107295, 23.960236587257803, 65.78672153414695, 11.854513425492197, 53.7131677313048, 13.396064979901809, 23.74020434353359, 12.389359531750223, 16.618238808520573, 13.04598803914388, 49.69954751558125, 12.770847456632547, 18.242786444806796, 16.533666942942173, 125.40466313928738, 15.824528080373357 ], "rps": [ 0.9243998882548767, 0.29434313778221877, 0.4987909173125694, 0.37571840984459304, 0.11955405295643032, 0.40400194809531115, 0.2805191374263702, 0.4047922044605863, 0.33894909342765506, 0.402063195575595, 0.3083043920997446, 0.5286359959573679, 0.38543552590220753, 0.3472010672430963, 0.3965772568916664, 0.44070511159485853, 0.5979228828844793, 0.8054744266854547, 0.39125206640299753, 0.41177471347439015, 0.4183711952111616, 0.2991966599264287, 0.17626267051259728, 0.45162240125160946, 0.35759824218941777, 0.33911183818246743, 0.17805195586514733, 0.4078822242269324, 0.44523902462447235, 0.5079739736579547, 0.07996119404585476, 0.4367710261015882 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.546221849426887, 0.5006209898385597, 0.47463997727575263, 0.41815000367394756, 0.5629552549427683, 0.49498688948174796, 0.477643485597547, 0.3820838914918218, 0.4675924281943521, 0.34140859723145817, 0.32837245319421293, 0.5374315918996531, 0.42791161191971255, 0.478997744827492, 0.3859727031231156, 0.43079003405987637, 0.4091224667534369, 0.5629552549427682, 0.5473749777298041, 0.31762780372493987, 0.5567250638845919, 0.3314668314118201, 0.5013535927665776, 0.3938931012781259, 0.4005237610004716, 0.37374789498522504, 0.5536094138716743, 0.347079043610374, 0.5202270950400264, 0.4553182914080023, 0.5617070387526095, 0.38432907468585364 ], "bias": [ 55.21166164697576, -13.95938097339176, 31.85110423129046, 14.036335045605865, -105.81526595382847, 27.119205315842898, 19.645374680411937, 11.007685212583594, 16.437694599513552, 31.701178438599978, -7.1008563517354375, -44.686816844766994, 17.747222115492747, -17.748998980361115, -7.147966436584882, -12.203130961052503, 40.48924825721234, 55.27079480728598, -75.94516237967625, 29.7326761267178, -65.59428691296014, 3.3106193327202473, 19.187291974621797, 17.831277559039872, -5.332780737373188, 16.410495828587063, -33.78101840235411, 22.659194005552607, 27.872515051550888, 32.712465320292004, -100.08599114976322, -7.933138331463641 ], "mae": [ 55.21166164697576, 34.01088535830119, 34.011523524659104, 17.801431189609684, 105.84197661166719, 27.727810533338708, 20.33834407652732, 19.242504185718843, 20.707943216277855, 32.000931476714165, 17.57757830778179, 45.23632259818706, 21.39689381069754, 31.588152778893008, 20.385436831843485, 26.449916619212598, 40.48924825721234, 55.27079480728598, 76.83881307911956, 30.40509603298516, 65.67844464730518, 15.510864165710261, 24.462610117978066, 21.645485496078205, 17.465259022640883, 18.746031895025023, 37.787931714406966, 23.520711535263214, 28.112665612599493, 33.488298930467764, 102.5002624931139, 22.4680903855982 ], "mse": [ 3366.8622773306083, 1900.0535051274417, 1554.255773068854, 432.2289597253063, 14045.887678115116, 944.3919488656193, 598.78809792457, 527.3288859486097, 547.752193764912, 1408.8127235465702, 644.8052069759038, 2984.1003395024172, 622.2710925180384, 1940.9462454288089, 686.8633950888526, 1434.3162062689742, 1886.9385093138403, 3961.1638832700014, 9418.627368033307, 1377.8137954755196, 5542.600752899121, 400.69716167337697, 893.1516082286507, 602.9816707962068, 511.6372596620652, 461.5480985032287, 2213.8204466495727, 785.1710093012484, 993.1013072877557, 1491.5844505232906, 14440.286636736411, 994.0521613898437 ], "var": [ 2240.722746050286, 4214.542788883506, 1548.1795640067205, 1216.8915070649668, 3477.0771788391535, 1555.2531522710797, 1699.5421976484056, 946.2963621285777, 1487.815856187991, 2623.331947069243, 1327.3847958732777, 1658.4968779459366, 1636.5110927287965, 2600.001902135534, 1860.3049615753732, 1662.186546561286, 2752.327791107763, 2007.062978467754, 2110.461042473216, 2396.1536589453185, 1992.473295351619, 1870.7917494523087, 4189.217485779822, 1224.6522821499332, 1964.8519477218679, 1514.5276364537742, 3435.651468780266, 1889.4247470190899, 1443.0201408308596, 2089.9007214517114, 3197.4468415356623, 1388.976376488507 ], "zero": [ 0.04708210101967145, 0.05485757824629175, 0.07448400121368355, 0.0897887130278921, 0.02288709346612183, 0.08900323779929459, 0.11963075624676948, 0.0732519065999609, 0.12007394042597583, 0.07407072920328872, 0.07846198686751239, 0.09044754607204089, 0.09082360368663968, 0.04916869535778278, 0.09306762593481217, 0.10915224275622205, 0.05216438177579834, 0.059083816262256464, 0.06763970630649278, 0.05479431740871538, 0.08827791010529233, 0.06590022183781248, 0.030435280478225718, 0.04674606643763135, 0.08315607869297637, 0.08792232834034448, 0.03056161479613575, 0.07860976488411726, 0.08774610284168162, 0.07217218513384052, 0.023073137944060542, 0.12197626099720911 ] }, "crps": 24.06068914591905, "crpss": 0.14480748912644792, "rps": 0.3985768071896282, "rpss": 0.11873152448192814, "mean_bias_mm": -0.22189858954419694, "mean_mae_mm": 35.74749752997486, "mean_rmse_mm": 49.879492482176495, "spread_error_ratio": 0.918876233480432, "zero_fraction": 0.07270346663020472, "correlation": 0.5298516039658102, "pit_histogram": [ 0.11336, 0.0998, 0.10231, 0.11344, 0.11624, 0.09993, 0.08618, 0.0792, 0.08641, 0.10313 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.09697078739580657 } }, "distribution_full": { "ethiopia": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9968407197213303, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.006026172345555685 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9615510550810425, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.23408634137164708 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.6461593967501439, "area_mean_abs_log": 2.5363530202877693 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0978219746578886, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.3521583604904669 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0106718475339305, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.13456790386496464 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0012254901960784314, "area_mean": 0.04801193727161464 } }, "ondj_domain": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9948018263265499, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.005250172263992935 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 0.8216322964908751, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.22489501225641437 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9337446795503397, "area_mean_abs_log": 3.0389874075339787 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 1.2396172054488375, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.30406968336849544 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9526642406145892, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.11630126621586866 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": 0.05689136690859788 } } } }, "eqm": { "training": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 17.928796231264936, 19.221536152354556, 11.919529199716651, 10.082870946977483, 55.39023918441979, 8.158664220965761, 7.160808662957021, 13.354442933052939, 6.5278393027627875, 12.225137214328399, 10.859054908354631, 22.47722606009697, 10.390432517730924, 15.346230946445994, 13.903283556777957, 26.088441148950885, 12.925508119561927, 17.965814073586106, 36.79298228831046, 15.691264391315604, 33.07878703849118, 10.600634013858595, 15.60814012385525, 9.54307466240393 ], "crps_clim": [ 12.317536543467577, 23.35796459817729, 12.697045070793552, 12.202051839195779, 80.47285365334993, 11.548375983365016, 12.678451972317543, 13.236171134630228, 9.77344956703739, 11.308094418769002, 10.495885058363076, 19.78743863254775, 11.56945900909618, 16.417052730597515, 12.717960992194332, 23.466029141135742, 10.74931047318028, 14.20169205564696, 38.727205395504946, 14.581796635287228, 32.862113763760696, 10.161605103260042, 18.582117729180727, 10.941519369614019 ], "rps": [ 0.6720181482526232, 0.3647097817578232, 0.506490373025623, 0.390042907223026, 0.1687197895698099, 0.36348983677835844, 0.31449645674098303, 0.46309217494115096, 0.3345124373505906, 0.4756363543266649, 0.38390298664070877, 0.5494395953420179, 0.4267665535940178, 0.4060018879321413, 0.47149726429526906, 0.5893026194373544, 0.4723810282620929, 0.5470376458874144, 0.47225091254098667, 0.41323964118928624, 0.4864181098379637, 0.3790085840508708, 0.2644084456712435, 0.4271972994538772 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.503268882341884, 0.45696255193683133, 0.4925766326091148, 0.42240641708616883, 0.5420235822074022, 0.4714149775295732, 0.455605992500462, 0.4281783876000402, 0.46522974758146945, 0.45001555732494986, 0.3793571949725829, 0.4624359120204484, 0.4373678925332641, 0.4400525449202173, 0.42589693023153363, 0.47068205353537346, 0.4255615214855194, 0.4516170482691049, 0.49843663106201835, 0.41189108424683096, 0.4992305010159512, 0.3787617113337185, 0.4739156168036444, 0.434610826319066 ], "bias": [ 31.59468842092463, -5.1480695278018045, 21.73862165508865, 2.781805093200781, -68.04271015473375, 17.027911577904927, 13.738318128587782, -4.982824910243506, 10.449340618866643, 23.86561648046318, -2.8010318274756876, -25.43345262014578, 6.535358073664044, -4.642185357542904, 1.3894040484293753, -23.264146152104708, 26.873027969986502, 30.98714714609108, -40.01989273562266, 6.018493717268158, -37.02568059323102, -0.9363355434164242, 7.27453083001907, 9.530965888855938 ], "mae": [ 34.19414374227389, 24.872648971612087, 23.20737912852278, 15.263365520008778, 69.99422641881768, 18.022283353404575, 15.433083088832916, 17.73024911997312, 13.518932433171036, 25.16614482752099, 15.021268436864819, 28.215153173827076, 15.730455055205136, 20.60318754270552, 19.388327970836194, 31.74290917947515, 27.136269765985116, 32.497502662257205, 46.86482051582021, 24.973820659049476, 41.693796259452036, 13.986397029815878, 20.61172031838198, 15.935858098141278 ], "mse": [ 1784.7637227195942, 1162.8852795695807, 895.4568847212582, 408.1624847962708, 8700.13619754567, 527.133823389121, 471.41984110710655, 548.0718052219185, 280.1171154477229, 1056.3103391917537, 495.3957689819288, 1648.5488993862955, 420.6576139074801, 988.2793739746111, 658.0117381863022, 1820.2164534460487, 1193.4370919740586, 2026.7167688107152, 4642.191478192118, 1215.16166347933, 3205.6893592580927, 454.7468675711493, 738.7588364481476, 433.12299145594085 ], "var": [ 1820.5844276337546, 3344.8732355234215, 1099.1935796536752, 915.9030804652873, 1680.1808802547337, 1217.7969269421683, 1200.1153630747087, 720.3995031533866, 1103.938130106292, 1861.2046432928107, 1053.4874829917123, 1255.8819244189197, 1439.8187555258285, 1965.3522359417461, 1440.2912783536954, 1135.891387658531, 1873.7809641157792, 1649.7989957799032, 1582.1142027643145, 1958.8193285346792, 1570.4644307256087, 1426.150687393874, 2889.897535738978, 993.7721148334958 ], "zero": [ 0.003891163191171003, 0.003378441420416583, 0.0025133084723849104, 0.005838583418636646, 0.0018381146566626193, 0.0046213145173273395, 0.006621953569938144, 0.002513897710053411, 0.008296447465893236, 0.004916667090499003, 0.003513624579995148, 0.005405745623539093, 0.004486893879749163, 0.0023241181888264727, 0.006677819616366171, 0.007830450283537382, 0.0029733002922425833, 0.002459432069503508, 0.005855759528910537, 0.004107789236986011, 0.006433593903559397, 0.0031904790379368845, 0.0014043560614761137, 0.0019454893400474532 ] }, "crps": 17.218364079105864, "crpss": 0.0710626434323206, "rps": 0.4309192014209124, "rpss": 0.049224486660082944, "mean_bias_mm": -0.10379582387364532, "mean_mae_mm": 25.49183096966479, "mean_rmse_mm": 38.60882476778151, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0197121183419748, "zero_fraction": 0.004293280964819117, "correlation": 0.2171656631853743, "pit_histogram": [ 0.1146, 0.0901, 0.0884, 0.09652, 0.10234, 0.1069, 0.10287, 0.09471, 0.09459, 0.10895 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.0713475018541662 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 28.74951743927, 30.008525225666954, 15.541545597657695, 8.511504052696488, 87.17612450858235, 11.475102322865085, 7.905024756944783, 9.81273971766575, 8.679374637710021, 14.78028389802008, 15.752999044280926, 39.19308973086977, 10.276023932780639, 27.527262433356853, 18.679361019154705, 19.693916178184228, 17.68624772104031, 29.86802411957601, 62.945372492164104, 16.898276944839758, 55.69482622999881, 13.705131489012262, 21.406285284909547, 9.979401905156172 ], "crps_clim": [ 18.52395116853421, 36.87672256900793, 18.170789562622396, 12.289909839909377, 126.90605491615098, 17.41989047035546, 17.706970523055745, 12.351304505468207, 13.796387526958524, 13.076262007562349, 14.560429422573055, 34.92849143385597, 13.963924627676032, 30.04724509587627, 16.82171605773241, 18.528924529932958, 12.89918086433115, 23.58960486668408, 67.53597007272384, 11.371976284610398, 55.90409404224628, 13.21381402559538, 23.974094843997456, 11.63096415863434 ], "rps": [ 0.8062873047328422, 0.3563195158497624, 0.41249215000287603, 0.3238195763383039, 0.13347631234223514, 0.33035581766689714, 0.24062561145745393, 0.34463130992033836, 0.2910670668351371, 0.39358824507536294, 0.3802860439732836, 0.6409909627972421, 0.3371863763610892, 0.403154062623937, 0.47523832053818166, 0.4657211406031794, 0.5109054333319435, 0.6791766513237917, 0.4783031094616661, 0.3973770248509343, 0.5174103812443813, 0.3643533632191459, 0.19004928600118506, 0.398473620073487 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5345788969238703, 0.4969529963190181, 0.4649874789243917, 0.41318634740760435, 0.546313799621928, 0.4766642051904933, 0.47169819738486596, 0.3818166848915748, 0.4706484126244913, 0.36582560440255596, 0.35459642943677694, 0.5238068939647562, 0.42423555831428944, 0.4745855744751957, 0.4052259209726985, 0.43061974360983973, 0.4027224211940853, 0.5463137996219276, 0.5329121077567514, 0.33515957321525397, 0.5425588509144538, 0.35778764325037954, 0.505082202846066, 0.40346036499799176 ], "bias": [ 54.36895683990368, -12.484223366326772, 29.35746460171822, 11.218913771113622, -110.46838453098472, 24.97207834749806, 18.34299812341118, 7.059991605363644, 14.23376857547585, 29.620448351135934, -10.572592042877647, -47.81680764432168, 15.82149934071492, -18.32461796337241, -9.32036415568107, -14.470527521279521, 38.68711483968025, 53.80510115507204, -78.21329891443808, 30.139928926925954, -68.40939317486524, 0.8635941743196205, 23.60461126857961, 14.321835254997737 ], "mae": [ 54.36895683990368, 36.266522586532346, 31.2697406448375, 15.742566690373971, 110.57903862439686, 25.681577828587283, 19.295560376423158, 16.130748384955023, 19.502900975794958, 30.152584357249946, 18.58588582295559, 48.166343320296704, 19.492552698271577, 32.82610382983077, 21.71638053867493, 25.598370473005144, 38.68711483968025, 53.80510115507204, 78.6399020829656, 30.875594065128624, 68.45667689403541, 16.31714288782403, 26.855222901617786, 18.8363680083472 ], "mse": [ 3325.3188369848785, 2022.6140131642474, 1391.2197869778306, 347.1929400008139, 15280.896002572874, 836.3393122871047, 584.1358567280798, 388.5432056101291, 486.82196673291975, 1324.6411849432711, 773.1563732094546, 3195.0241939189887, 521.7117092588213, 2040.6276647967932, 769.3029873669332, 1351.4276023181508, 1792.1525876272344, 3930.1408214480152, 9610.330892124746, 1436.7630838533291, 5968.854105804058, 455.69463389184415, 1045.7681119130111, 460.7554092368656 ], "var": [ 2911.111552278716, 5559.738396062477, 1788.7675532799337, 1383.017120195196, 2893.7635835488945, 1830.9788731728581, 2051.6003057019657, 1069.3889820689985, 1743.87228493766, 3106.0170214938207, 1662.2332938003585, 2079.642566583326, 2150.0207304286437, 3483.581021876806, 2270.05204697547, 2064.1921299176993, 2961.930408440791, 2469.8105140383723, 2584.9487913493717, 3359.622617645627, 2474.314728556007, 2488.6593485814083, 5521.061690598487, 1527.2717640931885 ], "zero": [ 0.007415938347538323, 0.0075558865322201095, 0.006237266641927362, 0.013380143453347227, 0.0041595822132967615, 0.010674258896563055, 0.015250677990378988, 0.006031333488766029, 0.0188521327416464, 0.010531422416999772, 0.007971724893633816, 0.011715932129549503, 0.009705878653652755, 0.005129125217475727, 0.015809500792468092, 0.017191802339316494, 0.005200469359390178, 0.005406689396071535, 0.009562896632800024, 0.00887228874858385, 0.014490228714486682, 0.0073505907419920795, 0.002493593879373453, 0.0028416212303883715 ] }, "crps": 24.247748361766806, "crpss": 0.08511818398356263, "rps": 0.41130369527602734, "rpss": 0.09118714388665417, "mean_bias_mm": -0.15257933909320145, "mean_mae_mm": 35.74370653444835, "mean_rmse_mm": 49.724002119520705, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0175092018104437, "zero_fraction": 0.009326291060494441, "correlation": 0.33173395039849496, "pit_histogram": [ 0.12028, 0.08302, 0.08643, 0.09371, 0.11329, 0.10296, 0.09699, 0.10144, 0.0978, 0.1041 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.08412386772157612 } }, "operational": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 10.183965391319218, 16.512163613468502, 30.96410089717459, 8.492704413226727, 10.404419114517875, 10.460612295168394, 48.32681404198585, 19.158518380514604 ], "crps_clim": [ 9.895516071070114, 14.17903530722128, 38.54879256346864, 8.382690795432643, 12.100478712529222, 9.990734718607943, 72.45749800359884, 14.992025314000559 ], "rps": [ 0.3893480326623757, 0.5695386445277754, 0.39891642375289693, 0.35531581901032266, 0.41425288080028283, 0.4046705163850137, 0.27239468846498305, 0.6195924995383238 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.39574475776394596, 0.4437047305666722, 0.546311199561453, 0.36237075360897236, 0.43798495130070614, 0.3932407178861523, 0.5285945268864339, 0.42293901304422793 ], "bias": [ 2.092678697870989, -8.892984132936293, -34.92001197500425, 10.047572176077207, 8.884823867197932, 16.64165024704985, -55.47568591780729, -16.552040425542405 ], "mae": [ 13.3214286824472, 21.912011248976835, 37.077469077088026, 13.795977961111147, 18.99218661737205, 19.94211243662651, 61.378696737968, 23.48772731024936 ], "mse": [ 323.0345187215769, 900.9389239700637, 2213.1353132893473, 380.13179305881414, 701.7415080872781, 722.5614632614058, 6999.9033894854365, 1224.7286197952953 ], "var": [ 1452.1235792058467, 978.2842753969057, 2382.493911674194, 1314.0059204525421, 1019.0349862719975, 1666.2766355940983, 2621.071635145934, 908.5115581763606 ], "zero": [ 0.006995444931395247, 0.007948919807936536, 0.0018942131675309644, 0.006104052955076985, 0.0095322071587304, 0.006547980273318885, 0.0012178404088171164, 0.009223012763656242 ] }, "crps": 19.312912268421968, "crpss": 0.14424779310209468, "rps": 0.42800368814274675, "rpss": 0.030264643131292956, "mean_bias_mm": -9.771749682886783, "mean_mae_mm": 26.238451258979893, "mean_rmse_mm": 41.02769724477176, "spread_error_ratio": 0.9573421061641527, "zero_fraction": 0.006182958933307797, "correlation": 0.4965902434273808, "pit_histogram": [ 0.03499, 0.05035, 0.07243, 0.09417, 0.10054, 0.1137, 0.11628, 0.12193, 0.10717, 0.18844 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.29612832673213996 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 16.864602799273023, 9.186474869215594, 31.489748351771926, 12.798771804634715, 11.114835393889532, 15.531074187238595, 72.14916947409766, 18.33712725073328 ], "crps_clim": [ 16.023613765163336, 12.042589782487557, 48.89791233340558, 12.005332284732548, 16.60873516709748, 15.463955391266797, 122.93071411734311, 15.359489400606916 ], "rps": [ 0.41290578192058813, 0.3079429431523597, 0.2356992125372667, 0.37907775610472505, 0.3586263396436029, 0.4503816959408425, 0.09980980928713855, 0.5127576956939075 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4012574985052145, 0.3824738866553415, 0.5455702609428927, 0.3608387586327424, 0.5032563034561837, 0.45825636877918047, 0.5532043323522959, 0.38836007080680135 ], "bias": [ -6.901184998071795, 13.532901539617507, -31.479170656483433, 20.604859430949965, 24.61000407748651, 30.695623723574602, -89.50742522744822, -10.093360924322132 ], "mae": [ 17.603277818611875, 16.138501385949194, 36.0520807639633, 22.061604545850166, 25.490586739176052, 32.27426392242603, 93.51070986179572, 23.28983959886128 ], "mse": [ 540.0313144953824, 359.0633025181948, 2110.697392253974, 725.4724155647332, 853.9035199745714, 1461.8705315854143, 12201.728402897557, 1034.8163248854712 ], "var": [ 2437.9122219560686, 1646.322048369013, 4490.713403595029, 2313.281485739728, 1694.770712983292, 2709.466894908567, 4626.42538359305, 1582.0693859083217 ], "zero": [ 0.014476212206970252, 0.015396256110354629, 0.003635213927452919, 0.011725372050162356, 0.018152853225998918, 0.01097595726471949, 0.002444397510390077, 0.019883591549272193 ] }, "crps": 23.43397551635679, "crpss": 0.27709824964355045, "rps": 0.34465015428505386, "rpss": 0.23266508372318828, "mean_bias_mm": -6.067219129337124, "mean_mae_mm": 33.3026080795792, "mean_rmse_mm": 49.10140426221955, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0558203657344922, "zero_fraction": 0.012086231730665104, "correlation": 0.8687544516207282, "pit_histogram": [ 0.03686, 0.07, 0.09895, 0.11211, 0.10217, 0.13011, 0.13745, 0.14124, 0.07738, 0.09374 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.24614578123634107 } }, "full": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 18.116902655988643, 19.08215059937571, 12.815404083667142, 10.22837200786945, 49.91961540646299, 8.635414321417416, 7.60165648488047, 13.070760332769735, 6.887465999206239, 12.774151916257948, 10.686632383394961, 21.51811417810812, 10.642258029475654, 15.322082679640742, 13.908638325141736, 25.732578621272893, 13.738404370347906, 18.482843646785078, 36.072248557753994, 14.509605444856666, 31.379566017423368, 10.078937969799076, 15.178610186141013, 10.206259220827889, 10.63655978186613, 15.903762918302307, 30.41209382209649, 8.760630977652564, 10.33613802335671, 11.065130394925061, 47.88485196372131, 18.315859729403428 ], "crps_clim": [ 12.783782020353424, 22.511377726630435, 13.486233432588588, 12.69944443375219, 76.94122015896143, 12.20106868173247, 13.309810711893718, 13.382499762169186, 10.510860190270792, 11.948508158258385, 10.507324363236147, 19.219499581536, 12.15624842534919, 16.33110258238101, 12.70802225555305, 23.51737823123135, 11.65595466198018, 14.642515311603015, 37.809037033490284, 13.847526321731513, 31.179523394808456, 10.189531034239177, 17.927950590511536, 11.88010054552358, 10.658915041984727, 14.411604379011287, 38.49497020875638, 9.149304055972436, 12.957927427879538, 10.730182113419154, 72.85260912174846, 14.681246973704665 ], "rps": [ 0.6697200357754255, 0.3629622531440761, 0.5349942848896815, 0.38620422130317156, 0.16040727477520675, 0.3812429569828663, 0.3227222680068958, 0.4438298418219638, 0.33867078033263165, 0.4814694494846495, 0.38530967449348347, 0.533417569015318, 0.42397476523507, 0.4189190121525288, 0.4789304525080546, 0.5853029520447891, 0.4901322924212322, 0.5571276048974967, 0.4838904437349982, 0.4058038907026548, 0.47466524506657376, 0.37009777988665993, 0.2605353736528034, 0.41204467922775684, 0.39703813675842486, 0.5406427554259343, 0.3825853500172253, 0.34982554857908144, 0.38957065466883584, 0.4114467174977526, 0.2608996846068163, 0.6014438435591949 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5099729077980537, 0.45223457520613386, 0.5042070796721, 0.4223319286224781, 0.5541349166685237, 0.4891341241458317, 0.46260551253834703, 0.41790847293771854, 0.47376507250073746, 0.44625492156786695, 0.3665742104158703, 0.46239929772210925, 0.44039805540566207, 0.4473385695884163, 0.41904326359193766, 0.4782106643198007, 0.43099085878539034, 0.4595141391239318, 0.5079472946014302, 0.4035582725551801, 0.49665385808099777, 0.3644779560242052, 0.4652165601075734, 0.42884001042431774, 0.4110384555452049, 0.43924247151695794, 0.5531184205365902, 0.36375626291307794, 0.4448249078788689, 0.3952033064964951, 0.5357304983934386, 0.4226854013145511 ], "bias": [ 33.558671868820966, -1.034025493471333, 23.808340401172504, 4.931118500524872, -61.27761588668074, 19.175737194612303, 15.563263763798917, -2.778313674974206, 12.44704078394431, 26.522132479262876, -0.5145771770714184, -22.94121858236185, 8.587828478100285, -1.8449717505849317, 4.126464799730357, -21.243731407318823, 29.07238197523965, 33.4276722485708, -37.183868000911154, 8.534383783393919, -34.12031384984615, 0.9865190192161741, 10.77394621030954, 11.307858750990738, 4.332722793950855, -7.556883565256888, -32.28441653735037, 12.434770168760348, 10.704708897630917, 19.470999891845587, -55.61482907742206, -15.355429422913938 ], "mae": [ 35.160813316619, 23.576749046397836, 25.15249247334452, 16.050860022191955, 63.619295748159836, 19.71705600531657, 16.73383129856889, 17.807067202271405, 14.952012191880875, 27.177548480521413, 15.254858815425349, 26.596360129290137, 17.020904144154787, 20.50418211293371, 19.7112876822727, 31.972313792626515, 29.25137321115128, 34.178705671054686, 46.60196944773399, 23.81778777625145, 39.5331275363853, 13.772603342754786, 21.62950835450346, 17.267150858291224, 14.532344035226986, 21.65040818622756, 35.48135714645886, 14.923157534085497, 19.211772828654038, 21.73553806685672, 61.31926457164872, 22.62706965712753 ], "mse": [ 1826.3121055911586, 1007.1895835906588, 1030.0917848784115, 439.74422013557955, 7629.739294111106, 606.9638857417139, 530.0649090530409, 564.4209237537264, 329.2739033958209, 1184.6195548521084, 470.99248073604184, 1519.3441633818115, 500.401097559995, 936.9544184475343, 658.5620938256851, 1814.6361983971024, 1339.9822975634488, 2099.458034485259, 4567.641181629327, 1073.2805271503157, 2927.8688455341085, 387.7440275712953, 820.1486330150088, 518.6993144996072, 351.83088323488516, 856.8216548369925, 2024.009859833676, 406.1889010625322, 696.5087270082529, 797.6168790230898, 7004.68339860994, 1117.0050299879963 ], "var": [ 1938.327158228731, 3793.067228910035, 1189.790901668642, 1015.837547665478, 2497.8309928971207, 1313.227810449852, 1249.717563952587, 787.2783546954786, 1198.3378358516482, 2183.2302493022003, 1126.2608487668037, 1416.978604714164, 1506.2822580213783, 2196.8202971280753, 1650.554976234675, 1189.059530248629, 2076.822670361067, 1841.4385655396861, 1692.439227387629, 2115.275000679521, 1786.1622552969475, 1473.2824020932187, 3179.7547986601, 1062.611592720302, 1655.7775446881421, 1060.3313285240754, 2861.0492400790517, 1473.5583012763807, 1036.8212314660357, 1776.8636194009778, 2491.817150216919, 990.1517719512831 ], "zero": [ 0.0028371272481090785, 0.0029185527798287715, 0.0017292077915941687, 0.004784600109761762, 0.001351483314617072, 0.0040529488104193885, 0.0056758678437890606, 0.0016756989164515767, 0.005998591387839798, 0.003456666197289916, 0.0025398220806748958, 0.0038648357176291467, 0.003593370903468367, 0.0015667585348647386, 0.00548823742009572, 0.00640575630279014, 0.0020548056788769658, 0.0018918476507165955, 0.003430382923746792, 0.0031344295849663178, 0.00546008542115011, 0.002487428546343813, 0.000756026567683889, 0.001323940309419802, 0.005869167237134774, 0.00638563074397415, 0.0012585618666817676, 0.0047954150961917255, 0.0071118927701272865, 0.005505476508089559, 0.0008336934049946973, 0.0071934687355927375 ] }, "crps": 17.4969906578184, "crpss": 0.10741491148427218, "rps": 0.42799461852091414, "rpss": 0.0534568914628909, "mean_bias_mm": -0.12448851300899921, "mean_mae_mm": 25.891899083949614, "mean_rmse_mm": 38.74548312888276, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0683171902533484, "zero_fraction": 0.003669743075153581, "correlation": 0.2849105631058743, "pit_histogram": [ 0.11314, 0.08711, 0.08859, 0.09776, 0.10325, 0.10364, 0.10459, 0.10065, 0.096, 0.10528 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.061100116513015695 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 28.38785138835647, 29.43952503972163, 15.491958276301398, 8.618407068561407, 79.3219157315963, 11.201083916634644, 7.7103312318666495, 9.950898333137431, 8.77914046585271, 14.380264750259093, 15.453834058772726, 38.79178266504684, 10.49238917619188, 27.231027888505217, 18.487998913993483, 19.864500912581402, 17.31390166879619, 29.428314195893577, 61.94419206855601, 16.880374122876322, 54.145583591761856, 13.284797813695846, 21.765142014741453, 10.061166327002224, 17.33294845693591, 9.317679867927984, 32.34370512316645, 12.905758398713566, 11.703547151529019, 15.743662289077184, 73.82312880201117, 18.34656558229846 ], "crps_clim": [ 18.971560801065813, 35.6367147291537, 18.636916636476265, 13.008245857985397, 122.09582939281907, 17.78179646878491, 17.998112084481825, 13.076782675945864, 14.529083489713967, 13.24418302159305, 14.803193391112085, 34.07821828870073, 14.676722636955915, 29.418403592206143, 16.790159921611743, 19.251560181834897, 13.33628914107295, 23.960236587257803, 65.78672153414695, 11.854513425492197, 53.7131677313048, 13.396064979901809, 23.74020434353359, 12.389359531750223, 16.618238808520573, 13.04598803914388, 49.69954751558125, 12.770847456632547, 18.242786444806796, 16.533666942942173, 125.40466313928738, 15.824528080373357 ], "rps": [ 0.7882084136680647, 0.3589180239361811, 0.41849513392615606, 0.3271571133527459, 0.14444007456215213, 0.3323652172806596, 0.24104900615387848, 0.35009226859172166, 0.2821571104935599, 0.3745073178684128, 0.36267370351835326, 0.6561816236368824, 0.337256902424629, 0.415356753519153, 0.47193897380398303, 0.46644715446577145, 0.5158768040193914, 0.6698861529180345, 0.4955426525798151, 0.39373109261379186, 0.5234954486308188, 0.3524737026713296, 0.2046213891626077, 0.3884473474825787, 0.4184302219458942, 0.2977403799805508, 0.236984796356762, 0.3650848025855622, 0.3586269777754518, 0.43399870462548473, 0.09758379364610509, 0.507216306654766 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.546221849426887, 0.5006209898385597, 0.47463997727575263, 0.41815000367394756, 0.5629552549427683, 0.49498688948174796, 0.477643485597547, 0.3820838914918218, 0.4675924281943521, 0.34140859723145817, 0.32837245319421293, 0.5374315918996531, 0.42791161191971255, 0.478997744827492, 0.3859727031231156, 0.43079003405987637, 0.4091224667534369, 0.5629552549427682, 0.5473749777298041, 0.31762780372493987, 0.5567250638845919, 0.3314668314118201, 0.5013535927665776, 0.3938931012781259, 0.4005237610004716, 0.37374789498522504, 0.5536094138716743, 0.347079043610374, 0.5202270950400264, 0.4553182914080023, 0.5617070387526095, 0.38432907468585364 ], "bias": [ 55.09584207424601, -9.411598862855286, 29.62257905526376, 11.695156790604525, -101.34135071378715, 25.30102756913589, 18.764347540025497, 7.371171286576451, 14.885936217846764, 31.57381997048818, -9.946948687873663, -46.21890260115377, 16.522285242828275, -15.631187749683432, -7.917259754161938, -13.769842666528524, 39.64794119333107, 54.31070154295609, -76.61038533176136, 31.076789463874526, -65.91462405132368, 1.453526635685705, 27.3461223717458, 14.701409255122673, -5.787605168793784, 14.589599487844964, -27.38574070889407, 22.326388218793618, 25.683213644769964, 32.15292208040137, -92.79045627485105, -9.776589532859363 ], "mae": [ 55.09584207424601, 33.42043346821229, 31.837134106268007, 16.237492951700645, 101.43013300039439, 25.93942298651897, 19.58863049030506, 16.599577775594913, 20.03061670641564, 31.799210036847526, 18.46299525094744, 46.6284377898102, 20.496844907447212, 31.7105466879084, 21.193665177490168, 26.3008479640172, 39.64794119333107, 54.31070154295609, 77.42301763499619, 31.74680186760188, 65.98045008464739, 15.879362018515629, 30.672797173369926, 19.26450817588638, 17.967425617395165, 17.284085741045526, 34.68021450446939, 23.05364515804003, 26.481013669562827, 33.190165500897365, 95.5730172399541, 23.152179653633176 ], "mse": [ 3353.2626936224055, 1729.4203859411095, 1439.4241227781606, 368.45466534034455, 13387.265778650168, 832.0341414217658, 584.8829892504625, 419.79012951917326, 511.3073501089465, 1370.096455738093, 740.7929970637966, 3099.628500838447, 568.0756009690527, 1920.8170440848226, 736.3763062645145, 1411.3732026487717, 1830.8515276126172, 3858.2383697830132, 9470.213892919564, 1500.334078560786, 5601.205872520965, 419.6208715061685, 1304.397160675641, 480.98522003573237, 540.7582946853876, 409.50457833319416, 1938.5535716601382, 758.3041262461145, 913.7310685676114, 1505.125519537009, 12672.618003045396, 1017.239082474162 ], "var": [ 3146.879401084097, 6204.483124241458, 1862.9564279146653, 1505.8402416206648, 4675.693928216242, 1872.0554274899116, 2084.616380231026, 1105.9337347497078, 1863.0342160679477, 3705.21684865208, 1720.0234140468322, 2296.62546385251, 2257.3996707569386, 3985.0414423141724, 2579.4684228784126, 2094.8391499849176, 3338.765468603467, 2741.493999124024, 2687.9027424779024, 3522.9635557251413, 2939.339394131671, 2551.1638123119938, 6226.283772587254, 1636.5894495994287, 2809.644490373957, 1772.8493576612236, 5688.054501728503, 2551.7330814073, 1679.0808941554083, 2788.3095456106603, 4350.741532160531, 1714.5126984490425 ], "zero": [ 0.005544007284216524, 0.006515147562886953, 0.00422664911013217, 0.01130049044020034, 0.0032580752085862247, 0.009286162234978473, 0.012893840949179647, 0.0038819957432027217, 0.013582948121488315, 0.007410910903566995, 0.0057517136601728715, 0.008526750140292834, 0.00748400270529037, 0.003533363684306321, 0.013035903857782026, 0.015181192766885253, 0.004230463676699741, 0.004505221774311237, 0.007274188502179551, 0.006999741330235176, 0.012409536972939289, 0.005963460362380264, 0.0012463322089688836, 0.00207917766875817, 0.012776514957842188, 0.01284469621639682, 0.002820074754046419, 0.010024736073997847, 0.014510876279506542, 0.00941285328083361, 0.0014933380522511935, 0.015629743792436628 ] }, "crps": 23.74823054038633, "crpss": 0.15591324997099532, "rps": 0.3933432926516015, "rpss": 0.13030302411596018, "mean_bias_mm": -0.2619285144683099, "mean_mae_mm": 35.09622369220082, "mean_rmse_mm": 48.95619330151304, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0950041234635464, "zero_fraction": 0.007988565946154737, "correlation": 0.529780084439854, "pit_histogram": [ 0.10975, 0.08226, 0.0856, 0.09653, 0.10944, 0.10372, 0.11021, 0.11595, 0.1029, 0.08364 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.10394703317698108 } }, "distribution_full": { "ethiopia": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9985237947503777, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.004382010689807821 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9920349282071997, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.012859455021544296 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9759053928729858, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.05447097810457384 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0003408112202705, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.008855512184146581 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0427279892820942, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.05787523705982599 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": -0.0034875878823718443 } }, "ondj_domain": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9956457956637438, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.005640430110176797 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9848335079675788, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.018490779779448897 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9566645690471347, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.07494175141184839 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0002205054567368, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.008748969142466225 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.044988364320655, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.054772521346627856 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": -0.007823533775452024 } } } }, "gqm": { "training": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 18.961510475943786, 18.338680110597412, 12.428389420957274, 10.302671281236783, 54.76389725648738, 8.682418740425978, 7.385580424894372, 12.813238778315622, 6.715116703459741, 12.811223926186473, 10.427813523562715, 21.33082346626559, 10.073336072492898, 14.720730326809822, 13.556437819637866, 25.340333067688096, 13.55846143277047, 18.754719542556188, 36.117790720840276, 15.710586823143046, 31.648606959240826, 10.087857214703469, 13.591363556673913, 9.689305386338201 ], "crps_clim": [ 12.317536543467577, 23.35796459817729, 12.697045070793552, 12.202051839195779, 80.47285365334993, 11.548375983365016, 12.678451972317543, 13.236171134630228, 9.77344956703739, 11.308094418769002, 10.495885058363076, 19.78743863254775, 11.56945900909618, 16.417052730597515, 12.717960992194332, 23.466029141135742, 10.74931047318028, 14.20169205564696, 38.727205395504946, 14.581796635287228, 32.862113763760696, 10.161605103260042, 18.582117729180727, 10.941519369614019 ], "rps": [ 0.7346608196377755, 0.34128180804832964, 0.5640099759717712, 0.3712116930699562, 0.1645416891805565, 0.3902555690692257, 0.3377890100489527, 0.4205784855222851, 0.36802778766851735, 0.5218830815663239, 0.3971855970188364, 0.5106080688596106, 0.39971923255512093, 0.40225072002621065, 0.47287114332867225, 0.537075268665573, 0.4902773725242528, 0.5653337874905436, 0.44233959690454544, 0.42972394768609773, 0.4531641180140651, 0.3633007513335644, 0.2437715902036981, 0.40239744922746445 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.503268882341884, 0.45696255193683133, 0.4925766326091148, 0.42240641708616883, 0.5420235822074022, 0.4714149775295732, 0.455605992500462, 0.4281783876000402, 0.46522974758146945, 0.45001555732494986, 0.3793571949725829, 0.4624359120204484, 0.4373678925332641, 0.4400525449202173, 0.42589693023153363, 0.47068205353537346, 0.4255615214855194, 0.4516170482691049, 0.49843663106201835, 0.41189108424683096, 0.4992305010159512, 0.3787617113337185, 0.4739156168036444, 0.434610826319066 ], "bias": [ 31.270105314061414, -5.68896580062721, 22.09553935906899, 3.1173781182233005, -67.87877624283233, 17.182103175073973, 13.391213638820568, -4.218283670577177, 10.560809548639678, 24.558440858058965, -2.388097851042124, -24.935662094232487, 6.9316520992096775, -5.115063727884167, 1.2152488215202235, -23.428290556820563, 27.056758475094693, 30.822146004382784, -40.48174866911596, 5.247966226481627, -37.06513301393125, -0.6896060898223942, 5.225322017823825, 10.287833157328997 ], "mae": [ 33.90907257320907, 24.964619441717648, 23.58444653522111, 15.48084073019169, 69.35875535433235, 18.198182597465333, 15.18765349433508, 17.62351548567571, 13.372362082787422, 25.71795026291175, 14.90503018412409, 27.975360613208593, 15.560043245796443, 20.53369297512102, 19.090998588154537, 31.75755941955295, 27.344785339811583, 32.30645829612009, 47.005356432487076, 24.344232111280306, 41.458779829100315, 13.911946069261923, 19.76952625306919, 16.163808915671456 ], "mse": [ 1752.7703851431731, 1207.361593701667, 920.2698111305203, 420.57299751167943, 8587.236712304382, 539.7899307615097, 462.9658947433058, 536.9634571708932, 272.525403560435, 1114.0574512927885, 480.5391739927885, 1627.6102356544689, 411.4964455985962, 997.7025043484209, 639.8419231326671, 1832.6321458203292, 1216.809007291091, 2014.4108561987061, 4680.043869484487, 1165.3762502807674, 3172.9949745091167, 443.9907121549241, 689.0725012817137, 452.4146541593462 ], "var": [ 1480.9012538233876, 2962.239581039762, 967.7802955826736, 861.3106185368221, 1909.1510964186998, 1097.7069984918144, 1033.0278772005863, 653.3728546143083, 988.4489562840774, 1796.913285596012, 919.4820058188994, 1099.4683535076422, 1241.2191917196565, 1619.9517829333033, 1267.924436465639, 999.0246014187092, 1848.9071580107982, 1362.4475659323225, 1285.2576040969534, 1580.5037047285907, 1284.6117346183516, 1149.571674240179, 2424.261482323189, 882.4634095392963 ], "zero": [ 0.050845053243731717, 0.0501616236633325, 0.054755158688413345, 0.06703878624469334, 0.03161768833321962, 0.06688896453348217, 0.08709819996799734, 0.059935207444916316, 0.08291793494432026, 0.062102518816704866, 0.06183714445097174, 0.07637417223190023, 0.07121898747035667, 0.053181631895451276, 0.06590410215359563, 0.08152664599937745, 0.05824378224074176, 0.05098684982933477, 0.05723790184956186, 0.05407189257736073, 0.06338395552015148, 0.06375304891394429, 0.03667533005006805, 0.058735759946420094 ] }, "crps": 16.992120542967843, "crpss": 0.08326856911928004, "rps": 0.4301774401509146, "rpss": 0.05086110078619366, "mean_bias_mm": -0.12196295429570547, "mean_mae_mm": 25.396874034608615, "mean_rmse_mm": 38.535399792067686, "spread_error_ratio": 0.9581075480516844, "zero_fraction": 0.06110384754208531, "correlation": 0.22110203159838934, "pit_histogram": [ 0.075, 0.10551, 0.11727, 0.11118, 0.10838, 0.10468, 0.09284, 0.08421, 0.09015, 0.11079 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.11560694917603696 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 30.713462332153643, 28.42183393634155, 16.30105209904626, 9.209710267042958, 86.50019915844129, 12.204992460689558, 8.05492792881882, 9.856845954244536, 8.929954321403521, 15.48292775775199, 14.417429262422367, 36.81153942764848, 10.40758668691679, 25.824163371894763, 17.976674903384176, 18.41044901435523, 18.81437266791281, 31.789474985949468, 62.3512994479364, 16.474799885272937, 52.86582589795037, 12.642664224925042, 17.461166239896805, 10.619241357997247 ], "crps_clim": [ 18.52395116853421, 36.87672256900793, 18.170789562622396, 12.289909839909377, 126.90605491615098, 17.41989047035546, 17.706970523055745, 12.351304505468207, 13.796387526958524, 13.076262007562349, 14.560429422573055, 34.92849143385597, 13.963924627676032, 30.04724509587627, 16.82171605773241, 18.528924529932958, 12.89918086433115, 23.58960486668408, 67.53597007272384, 11.371976284610398, 55.90409404224628, 13.21381402559538, 23.974094843997456, 11.63096415863434 ], "rps": [ 0.8509817761739584, 0.33508592417632593, 0.4334171596431065, 0.3341462002511134, 0.13101435134565434, 0.34696947087681734, 0.24855654876140337, 0.3458255087104997, 0.29633446164731414, 0.4199596056436818, 0.3628133902711169, 0.5816567854393928, 0.33816832988443984, 0.36624969638360366, 0.45327582412300177, 0.442757093180408, 0.5309654165316207, 0.7332464146565643, 0.4373326665777107, 0.39777604254403554, 0.4562803964602376, 0.3368715556733993, 0.17189568890584744, 0.4007194920211567 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5345788969238703, 0.4969529963190181, 0.4649874789243917, 0.41318634740760435, 0.546313799621928, 0.4766642051904933, 0.47169819738486596, 0.3818166848915748, 0.4706484126244913, 0.36582560440255596, 0.35459642943677694, 0.5238068939647562, 0.42423555831428944, 0.4745855744751957, 0.4052259209726985, 0.43061974360983973, 0.4027224211940853, 0.5463137996219276, 0.5329121077567514, 0.33515957321525397, 0.5425588509144538, 0.35778764325037954, 0.505082202846066, 0.40346036499799176 ], "bias": [ 54.27654912667592, -14.705803814072292, 29.923996447852044, 11.987894732029117, -109.44069321469813, 25.307646860467187, 17.646098440290633, 8.433640394481086, 14.437899811469762, 30.556951245760004, -9.56803888894402, -47.286204536983654, 15.899296629000093, -19.22094325438339, -9.212363038152587, -14.716467850287144, 39.502371530461886, 53.85441879358758, -79.18215777485058, 28.60266664416219, -67.79501120863465, 1.0006548273528169, 20.465018366437786, 15.694492706153868 ], "mae": [ 54.27654912667592, 36.13683259958904, 31.805036884151882, 16.132410375219308, 109.49629853525288, 26.01728704635519, 18.702634195383688, 16.39353955729357, 18.97427085938815, 30.94515108622665, 18.213307148171403, 47.71820217710012, 19.27512252372368, 32.540683278593036, 21.44570093275069, 25.60255223045451, 39.502371530461886, 53.85441879358758, 79.4365664604034, 29.412966473004737, 67.85948586005696, 15.99321258245569, 25.292603037728863, 19.54606750566736 ], "mse": [ 3312.092548744445, 2090.6129502442827, 1438.063158902667, 371.0643258428635, 15150.90122057431, 865.8766166680211, 555.2744666760261, 401.2993988712456, 464.29620417613575, 1392.4633511934371, 734.4923008278108, 3155.0276494175296, 511.869707897184, 2054.8878375195522, 752.2853761580566, 1371.3970296031928, 1861.0208061146914, 3926.681491224682, 9758.681906924116, 1294.3747523998697, 5876.014406766555, 444.7065862260908, 934.2207951325372, 499.12578715684225 ], "var": [ 2382.3447022851965, 4643.122297450082, 1566.0358619791457, 1305.5001951784093, 3379.0566572509724, 1647.148200381723, 1760.5565877116746, 993.1719534115562, 1563.2920610538176, 2907.355483318702, 1425.6200874081699, 1717.621200061482, 1758.282681134723, 2846.5344803276294, 2036.0717127519838, 1757.7660260975022, 3165.482609691161, 1977.117074946078, 2006.0997871265847, 2633.4372906861627, 2087.811312171576, 1985.2847927811733, 4882.853525569097, 1344.2750419261495 ], "zero": [ 0.054575980515267596, 0.06644519875679272, 0.08919813417218667, 0.10006270528681589, 0.031138517275319872, 0.10234363697797164, 0.1411562941303919, 0.08991104371479103, 0.1327833031676939, 0.08518103912652551, 0.09748104757067916, 0.10572134537964034, 0.10949333154292179, 0.06138287806818141, 0.10702649503395882, 0.12074738387939658, 0.06416949810488204, 0.07136914885486303, 0.07846657812669612, 0.06464644240547678, 0.09827379493392892, 0.07846195700890315, 0.03855438926082128, 0.061107961253798256 ] }, "crps": 23.855941399599875, "crpss": 0.09990129125303482, "rps": 0.4063458249951004, "rpss": 0.10214200838702014, "mean_bias_mm": -0.1474202927010193, "mean_mae_mm": 35.60721961665401, "mean_rmse_mm": 49.67256564881587, "spread_error_ratio": 0.9529173671297656, "zero_fraction": 0.08540408768949603, "correlation": 0.3429318636604596, "pit_histogram": [ 0.08587, 0.09385, 0.09823, 0.10958, 0.12566, 0.107, 0.095, 0.08691, 0.09393, 0.10398 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.09242617587875263 } }, "operational": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 10.105256562663387, 16.382217987582894, 30.00120341512324, 8.843023513912184, 10.75247656790756, 10.837190658190996, 48.0524676060823, 18.52775826128716 ], "crps_clim": [ 9.895516071070114, 14.17903530722128, 38.54879256346864, 8.382690795432643, 12.100478712529222, 9.990734718607943, 72.45749800359884, 14.992025314000559 ], "rps": [ 0.4215963586644161, 0.539766770252628, 0.3661466425431998, 0.3632211927490307, 0.42149426115131944, 0.4172272771845437, 0.27230847918522993, 0.5745748901952403 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.39574475776394596, 0.4437047305666722, 0.546311199561453, 0.36237075360897236, 0.43798495130070614, 0.3932407178861523, 0.5285945268864339, 0.42293901304422793 ], "bias": [ 2.2644606918801267, -8.730840776923616, -35.14271409019183, 9.86371651484974, 8.972880929110879, 16.18246293411052, -56.758889787472306, -16.253886367671686 ], "mae": [ 13.45559852462266, 21.99334984042716, 37.33714346510728, 13.718567860626507, 19.05563306129477, 19.620201175936383, 62.094905952831674, 23.41187825187838 ], "mse": [ 322.9401548550045, 909.2648277979855, 2227.163269198509, 376.5470858466599, 711.8729193818185, 695.4081390777449, 7075.827102049085, 1219.6111432908042 ], "var": [ 1288.3051498343941, 922.4140844740961, 2138.1731035370467, 1139.7220115637724, 878.5277748812936, 1366.676622038237, 2323.4833490314013, 840.3402560931398 ], "zero": [ 0.07465429049868227, 0.08369769299004583, 0.04294575657697615, 0.07187497067046666, 0.08042541158051178, 0.05915297934089466, 0.03467241558834573, 0.09214704411790116 ] }, "crps": 19.187699321593715, "crpss": 0.14979595974269333, "rps": 0.422041983990701, "rpss": 0.043772179312854154, "mean_bias_mm": -9.950351244038522, "mean_mae_mm": 26.335909766590603, "mean_rmse_mm": 41.137930553045585, "spread_error_ratio": 0.8971784660969628, "zero_fraction": 0.06744632017047802, "correlation": 0.5013077927058784, "pit_histogram": [ 0.01208, 0.05674, 0.09866, 0.11447, 0.1123, 0.10717, 0.09878, 0.1053, 0.09969, 0.19481 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.2680966596356407 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 16.180674389112728, 9.634396065311895, 29.91966224335486, 13.45639983602548, 11.895695234647125, 16.397358261965703, 71.8997760819089, 17.702923034401802 ], "crps_clim": [ 16.023613765163336, 12.042589782487557, 48.89791233340558, 12.005332284732548, 16.60873516709748, 15.463955391266797, 122.93071411734311, 15.359489400606916 ], "rps": [ 0.3983775609271973, 0.3251129049749419, 0.21032865840993112, 0.40450915123157305, 0.3815121247918809, 0.47858493443626804, 0.08845376883058598, 0.4925370780007197 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4012574985052145, 0.3824738866553415, 0.5455702609428927, 0.3608387586327424, 0.5032563034561837, 0.45825636877918047, 0.5532043323522959, 0.38836007080680135 ], "bias": [ -6.6524357461169075, 13.89754151052952, -31.83238570497687, 20.28741063130529, 24.8293055019978, 30.014975640471967, -91.68863321601897, -9.631857613179408 ], "mae": [ 17.890601925917544, 16.274458402147985, 36.554961722419705, 21.73632179163444, 25.606206803836766, 31.752249763407665, 94.91557174487836, 23.307337204719854 ], "mse": [ 544.6673645254034, 363.18320410594583, 2145.2153388012644, 706.4450250269416, 877.6794183010504, 1405.6340197307936, 12366.155773038909, 1028.2619779104878 ], "var": [ 2168.2322947613275, 1528.6610595107902, 4115.01954462332, 1946.9192444627336, 1446.6428271915634, 2172.7204762505194, 4218.744068343569, 1441.4817244932055 ], "zero": [ 0.09155736853051781, 0.09959542130827997, 0.0384534188780627, 0.0889505439792587, 0.09948308679799822, 0.08720051680803079, 0.029229095303501988, 0.12834436406485747 ] }, "crps": 23.38586064334106, "crpss": 0.2785825187508971, "rps": 0.3474270227003872, "rpss": 0.2264826170493761, "mean_bias_mm": -6.347009874498447, "mean_mae_mm": 33.50471366987029, "mean_rmse_mm": 49.29153340260475, "spread_error_ratio": 0.9896876333851838, "zero_fraction": 0.08285172695881346, "correlation": 0.8710799908029736, "pit_histogram": [ 0.01097, 0.07978, 0.11346, 0.12364, 0.12211, 0.12401, 0.11786, 0.12079, 0.08831, 0.09907 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.2437274986855092 } }, "full": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 19.53899408594609, 17.69507220384831, 13.68269694913078, 10.591383098357367, 50.55362874717646, 9.373044056003492, 8.028053781158443, 12.871323621804212, 7.220713323955937, 13.615315294148129, 10.150361384707558, 19.9965770483714, 10.581712626164155, 14.624635545546658, 13.438107063639366, 25.098491231517947, 14.697645937611497, 19.462704980610997, 35.38531576672335, 14.734804334140808, 29.553753538783962, 9.508284726027954, 13.43742531050123, 10.60484610009685, 10.398214823287711, 15.77385688865063, 28.817955530089627, 9.253631453881567, 10.733494532293593, 11.65748014131393, 48.414202000405126, 17.404952438535183 ], "crps_clim": [ 12.783782020353424, 22.511377726630435, 13.486233432588588, 12.69944443375219, 76.94122015896143, 12.20106868173247, 13.309810711893718, 13.382499762169186, 10.510860190270792, 11.948508158258385, 10.507324363236147, 19.219499581536, 12.15624842534919, 16.33110258238101, 12.70802225555305, 23.51737823123135, 11.65595466198018, 14.642515311603015, 37.809037033490284, 13.847526321731513, 31.179523394808456, 10.189531034239177, 17.927950590511536, 11.88010054552358, 10.658915041984727, 14.411604379011287, 38.49497020875638, 9.149304055972436, 12.957927427879538, 10.730182113419154, 72.85260912174846, 14.681246973704665 ], "rps": [ 0.7472578205953354, 0.3367578580946971, 0.5963184042590175, 0.37415213456767166, 0.1501071912622907, 0.41949290304864234, 0.3520061073575348, 0.4100356315453718, 0.3783568889486862, 0.5307997441065485, 0.40008936198922884, 0.48710327430480765, 0.4091770056421965, 0.41177534390301684, 0.47704830565088624, 0.5347748509855318, 0.5201436775324231, 0.5957163072749406, 0.4426424685213747, 0.4213025322200499, 0.43626894160863944, 0.36247592937453466, 0.24091869634986543, 0.4030900549027036, 0.43078432117047283, 0.5095503392491973, 0.33576120209652266, 0.36722943741260194, 0.4043853448099815, 0.43737015239216426, 0.2626935459175347, 0.5476369396488872 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5099729077980537, 0.45223457520613386, 0.5042070796721, 0.4223319286224781, 0.5541349166685237, 0.4891341241458317, 0.46260551253834703, 0.41790847293771854, 0.47376507250073746, 0.44625492156786695, 0.3665742104158703, 0.46239929772210925, 0.44039805540566207, 0.4473385695884163, 0.41904326359193766, 0.4782106643198007, 0.43099085878539034, 0.4595141391239318, 0.5079472946014302, 0.4035582725551801, 0.49665385808099777, 0.3644779560242052, 0.4652165601075734, 0.42884001042431774, 0.4110384555452049, 0.43924247151695794, 0.5531184205365902, 0.36375626291307794, 0.4448249078788689, 0.3952033064964951, 0.5357304983934386, 0.4226854013145511 ], "bias": [ 33.556253197582194, -2.4883095028298396, 24.409495165201843, 5.481461545836358, -62.42338554433507, 19.466398364652196, 15.467542560788022, -1.7298401687815113, 12.826316567494514, 26.90713118007511, 0.24516126752550782, -22.2794689707993, 9.218700108290554, -2.2243674597093714, 3.9479586913659417, -21.114793080295698, 29.366046319832066, 33.148308868888705, -37.42664763570648, 7.954599710914097, -34.06325006820741, 1.624843327158509, 8.385293619234961, 12.413158158693344, 4.604030399835739, -7.072791869959793, -33.48202390797544, 12.357060899912451, 11.131969771196593, 19.253854390482925, -57.32501373844156, -14.79026198148898 ], "mae": [ 35.17837671482093, 24.177558059803875, 25.71191257625265, 16.47711662719833, 64.31692825766113, 20.001270407173976, 16.68048515349973, 18.02733706634613, 15.001774268502272, 27.54662308652492, 14.972919968440685, 26.24701187696867, 17.056711855885016, 20.48502106416914, 19.329540954600052, 32.024578105479655, 29.570418588926827, 33.94206607756329, 46.52639227864159, 23.53351968982396, 39.21597201278796, 13.601841443620925, 20.518666001373656, 17.902650474743087, 14.590254839204139, 21.81448254400768, 35.940611157028314, 14.958825125761784, 19.50128440988365, 21.56131633542296, 62.49125839910933, 22.321483232841207 ], "mse": [ 1824.5896374861768, 1089.3781668421857, 1059.5409580079329, 462.92247176899673, 7826.8096754721955, 627.9931246966803, 536.622081599413, 567.8407758232862, 331.9367178257371, 1232.73056742877, 446.3039321739873, 1477.596119196812, 505.04706687332606, 947.2087807203194, 638.0602442056863, 1828.3405895812389, 1375.601827726796, 2074.483147857577, 4574.503891099739, 1058.9980039381044, 2882.119926240711, 370.45565454096266, 746.4703899985373, 560.034086012502, 349.78861072488417, 862.63857235527, 2067.6125088440067, 410.4242900603458, 720.4469317131749, 777.4732744086699, 7204.495942063621, 1092.7850580255297 ], "var": [ 1567.603071884619, 3119.0685994584273, 1021.5631597462971, 922.171126719451, 2351.404165928873, 1167.3427730576507, 1094.5280765198515, 695.4681830757196, 1061.2295729428222, 1924.3248969022607, 989.0634883642706, 1214.2421452917404, 1309.9352896186035, 1788.325364236751, 1370.97961958651, 1040.736589567888, 2031.2348802969107, 1449.3077438272567, 1388.3632725732587, 1684.8732565579378, 1416.557068748387, 1200.3757122924153, 2567.5484706252882, 936.1155102469254, 1418.9736600288668, 1000.3920562206835, 2198.323515039505, 1265.6445378653716, 924.1754303111368, 1474.3736577000375, 2115.72816684703, 905.5389072222865 ], "zero": [ 0.04506704211032779, 0.04241121348670547, 0.046939917687736074, 0.05984794781182347, 0.026557905736902167, 0.05842356419680185, 0.077527501201997, 0.05172354770948207, 0.07446337583669693, 0.055103208589744795, 0.0529115164645063, 0.06611079052691121, 0.06197377419687851, 0.04609902938691936, 0.058330306071491436, 0.07261772908591116, 0.051161433953934035, 0.04376599917211937, 0.04972319613531951, 0.047374388031482716, 0.056113611439213985, 0.05584058054670858, 0.031049446007568787, 0.049848690772870685, 0.06808949985517734, 0.07609321355565948, 0.037064489825214195, 0.0657492873900686, 0.07029431175889836, 0.05170763315827427, 0.03046777862401153, 0.08632519135553422 ] }, "crps": 17.40308370513845, "crpss": 0.11220544645736041, "rps": 0.42916320989823, "rpss": 0.050872461502727395, "mean_bias_mm": -0.14545530667402629, "mean_mae_mm": 25.97581902043961, "mean_rmse_mm": 38.94357016300684, "spread_error_ratio": 0.9800640904536886, "zero_fraction": 0.055211785052590355, "correlation": 0.2829392759510818, "pit_histogram": [ 0.07418, 0.10392, 0.12031, 0.11107, 0.113, 0.10241, 0.09161, 0.08388, 0.08726, 0.11236 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.12614718521543192 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 31.17139906064641, 26.95169147201928, 16.788933474933447, 9.424552021924955, 81.2028308022754, 12.342957541415878, 8.142562452271003, 10.320751255777559, 9.197968760153405, 15.581684014572442, 13.901112981271035, 35.532290190164005, 10.76288241143502, 25.378308750131847, 17.437130948350443, 18.582095096917765, 19.20019972627899, 31.774004988504874, 60.616600545381694, 17.02161003638421, 50.65112646247919, 12.236302703364837, 18.144652128303925, 11.023793855427364, 16.145907544819483, 10.037797121036991, 29.42601019761318, 13.894224224485924, 12.765292369610787, 17.053291396606863, 75.3401332017718, 17.40743715780343 ], "crps_clim": [ 18.971560801065813, 35.6367147291537, 18.636916636476265, 13.008245857985397, 122.09582939281907, 17.78179646878491, 17.998112084481825, 13.076782675945864, 14.529083489713967, 13.24418302159305, 14.803193391112085, 34.07821828870073, 14.676722636955915, 29.418403592206143, 16.790159921611743, 19.251560181834897, 13.33628914107295, 23.960236587257803, 65.78672153414695, 11.854513425492197, 53.7131677313048, 13.396064979901809, 23.74020434353359, 12.389359531750223, 16.618238808520573, 13.04598803914388, 49.69954751558125, 12.770847456632547, 18.242786444806796, 16.533666942942173, 125.40466313928738, 15.824528080373357 ], "rps": [ 0.8570169840858733, 0.3263493343283457, 0.4561671046132699, 0.34398209648088557, 0.1304097839420434, 0.3605428612747109, 0.25882523170723254, 0.3601010988810791, 0.2930043355834222, 0.410752739085975, 0.33820136588379224, 0.5711481253066575, 0.3430303708571434, 0.36657888016132806, 0.43570490975156934, 0.4419156354300101, 0.5606680507144931, 0.7413990675846767, 0.4282008873037487, 0.4039058940810541, 0.45427384252535036, 0.32422829053217145, 0.18801389672360655, 0.40352980915760445, 0.3911446063693808, 0.32232444195467086, 0.19403617997408934, 0.39760692854451235, 0.3933170117278381, 0.4769665304526556, 0.083387262527072, 0.47615862614013216 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.546221849426887, 0.5006209898385597, 0.47463997727575263, 0.41815000367394756, 0.5629552549427683, 0.49498688948174796, 0.477643485597547, 0.3820838914918218, 0.4675924281943521, 0.34140859723145817, 0.32837245319421293, 0.5374315918996531, 0.42791161191971255, 0.478997744827492, 0.3859727031231156, 0.43079003405987637, 0.4091224667534369, 0.5629552549427682, 0.5473749777298041, 0.31762780372493987, 0.5567250638845919, 0.3314668314118201, 0.5013535927665776, 0.3938931012781259, 0.4005237610004716, 0.37374789498522504, 0.5536094138716743, 0.347079043610374, 0.5202270950400264, 0.4553182914080023, 0.5617070387526095, 0.38432907468585364 ], "bias": [ 55.5053540013969, -12.51361812114295, 30.84983674868031, 13.00693337960128, -103.32400172767943, 26.255405319195535, 18.484542729420006, 9.50677935497224, 15.61021782508313, 31.925955702202504, -8.301746820984839, -45.18953904086325, 16.995034676879552, -16.443516229616083, -7.732784438561488, -13.558566087397844, 40.9921296553795, 54.44011284182264, -76.73334362948685, 30.158432379125095, -65.4745788901724, 2.3031187772148844, 22.99532990303492, 16.83786754250997, -5.335298437984363, 15.530674091551539, -30.27288198500935, 22.34938579989099, 26.62290500709979, 32.03806028693637, -96.00009309241648, -8.93563605045265 ], "mae": [ 55.5053540013969, 33.46256879080114, 32.968450210481464, 16.914329064991094, 103.3826221548872, 26.83335800252934, 19.329325487988857, 17.436986126746863, 19.955535402333137, 32.17562899743118, 17.8262657595691, 45.704986960825515, 20.61926443970708, 31.500804101123574, 20.79839468333838, 26.14635281818646, 40.9921296553795, 54.44011284182264, 77.41719661513386, 30.828154719970286, 65.55611156237637, 15.626669743576663, 28.226364690286818, 20.643557668335067, 17.98486811728127, 17.765527117042787, 35.739806578309114, 23.135417869198818, 27.248073359937116, 33.09410379203317, 97.96776685816427, 22.813745389237123 ], "mse": [ 3388.977684636641, 1844.7971442004234, 1505.4049713699696, 402.9535872832903, 13932.812497390221, 890.8809704439038, 579.1851760862208, 451.713562890796, 513.1076297837855, 1417.589062754734, 683.5077720507176, 2998.1434017445386, 577.5252469618732, 1941.8393472588039, 712.2539556375503, 1417.5595869912809, 1943.5542770059562, 3855.1597982479543, 9507.395267995813, 1397.1278140718985, 5525.819360448741, 407.27724328460465, 1132.8367511413194, 549.7964704490012, 535.1066180884535, 423.10424055345936, 2051.0077555316893, 766.0296593330859, 974.4128312512208, 1473.8059658239322, 13120.809942000671, 991.9437874169796 ], "var": [ 2504.4757816136125, 4797.024453466031, 1604.939228752184, 1343.4247470783648, 4253.856472847012, 1702.355475156345, 1816.4481964357442, 1020.3736868863253, 1640.302264419575, 3072.788841221147, 1468.2337877555321, 1856.9124949282423, 1815.3016748381056, 3161.9056012775723, 2150.30893885399, 1774.5416261248592, 3534.176496409138, 2062.717142579917, 2136.203753601401, 2715.474909450245, 2278.4061520327105, 2020.6236240124097, 5150.146869062651, 1404.8686908465738, 2359.059799527432, 1650.4638577449218, 4278.13147639428, 2129.969636726754, 1484.1090310890247, 2242.6225994169704, 3739.399409991976, 1527.7533566061052 ], "zero": [ 0.05117456918788852, 0.058601985772319336, 0.07920252916797, 0.09387794435901997, 0.026835696655484492, 0.09309787305914578, 0.12878515629684853, 0.08192139107780431, 0.12493460464782473, 0.07753756411903971, 0.08595276637819572, 0.09454186897045493, 0.09775839759768612, 0.0536050557493041, 0.09806322695771139, 0.11345232695583503, 0.056808194721892614, 0.06414775114744055, 0.06992551222511509, 0.058187842581443876, 0.0904280921135626, 0.07089293766998633, 0.033001220780477576, 0.05374689599492724, 0.08750529162920026, 0.09193341975720623, 0.034197894596390985, 0.08465809149431716, 0.08838431846493369, 0.07798153039683584, 0.026029980306531864, 0.12329684967065899 ] }, "crps": 23.60804796544167, "crpss": 0.16089577925436704, "rps": 0.3916528807401998, "rpss": 0.1340405891254811, "mean_bias_mm": -0.23148526655533797, "mean_mae_mm": 35.31374479938819, "mean_rmse_mm": 49.343641744697436, "spread_error_ratio": 0.9921650090699631, "zero_fraction": 0.07720214939073293, "correlation": 0.5317188595770548, "pit_histogram": [ 0.07189, 0.09535, 0.10729, 0.11171, 0.12757, 0.10852, 0.09985, 0.09404, 0.09231, 0.09148 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.11018096815626224 } }, "distribution_full": { "ethiopia": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9970595864025784, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.005355976863741265 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9126162423926154, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.11704222858143637 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.7960877207828766, "area_mean_abs_log": 2.302571988911218 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 1.1375394292293701, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.461731230914339 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9805633539472581, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.09853119199634668 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": 0.04805445409506487 } }, "ondj_domain": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9961265461611293, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.005768502849615096 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 0.8935747071424678, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.12905346860482886 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.7883384571279911, "area_mean_abs_log": 2.97000783243772 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 1.1431789018374, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.342942913793773 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9814167755038046, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.09303735986729954 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": 0.06139004966912609 } } } }, "dqm": { "training": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 17.5816825511693, 19.600958018063707, 11.812715391803112, 10.654832261458658, 54.9691813883468, 8.50519801053333, 7.28047472331433, 13.925775683299555, 6.785759619941672, 12.173192254616763, 10.665672138568414, 22.09021004296915, 10.860773030196805, 15.636097634075913, 13.965873576541656, 26.626202903871114, 12.68945770669901, 18.06554743510294, 36.742322168786245, 15.197443579803009, 32.94155897552782, 10.403716545311044, 13.600639098291376, 10.098126663648085 ], "crps_clim": [ 12.317536543467577, 23.35796459817729, 12.697045070793552, 12.202051839195779, 80.47285365334993, 11.548375983365016, 12.678451972317543, 13.236171134630228, 9.77344956703739, 11.308094418769002, 10.495885058363076, 19.78743863254775, 11.56945900909618, 16.417052730597515, 12.717960992194332, 23.466029141135742, 10.74931047318028, 14.20169205564696, 38.727205395504946, 14.581796635287228, 32.862113763760696, 10.161605103260042, 18.582117729180727, 10.941519369614019 ], "rps": [ 0.7008574503747986, 0.3480062703079411, 0.4849888260231369, 0.40620990076502084, 0.16965521687960852, 0.3384993172829577, 0.30925234178381683, 0.5150987546682014, 0.31014843826743266, 0.4932414117360926, 0.39503100760075505, 0.5663217832540173, 0.4372282036089465, 0.41071594852826954, 0.4897300203151067, 0.6465277014356424, 0.4801010761781999, 0.5676543140333679, 0.46590390065150095, 0.4043569633560669, 0.48387505393277214, 0.37935138945269575, 0.25692010700721757, 0.44251543574950625 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.503268882341884, 0.45696255193683133, 0.4925766326091148, 0.42240641708616883, 0.5420235822074022, 0.4714149775295732, 0.455605992500462, 0.4281783876000402, 0.46522974758146945, 0.45001555732494986, 0.3793571949725829, 0.4624359120204484, 0.4373678925332641, 0.4400525449202173, 0.42589693023153363, 0.47068205353537346, 0.4255615214855194, 0.4516170482691049, 0.49843663106201835, 0.41189108424683096, 0.4992305010159512, 0.3787617113337185, 0.4739156168036444, 0.434610826319066 ], "bias": [ 30.91228692633133, -5.315558602068604, 21.985305581653982, 4.048318418572774, -66.60393382764038, 17.513949892931414, 13.589010694354164, -4.315301495356004, 10.619881562240398, 23.79600904372128, -1.7971737853776095, -25.190057646819188, 7.0427341306336375, -6.255795057206662, 2.4167065812745787, -22.599732689323567, 26.64298551160764, 30.671289546621306, -40.05230019349604, 4.551379052854031, -36.561097240717785, -0.7418908707622053, 2.7369064580788542, 10.050732734857759 ], "mae": [ 33.31738714614041, 26.295593475955865, 23.477543770263953, 16.296648716568985, 69.83793221683003, 18.46367720684288, 15.403698635364522, 18.66742451274361, 13.328099792846904, 25.11310078881546, 14.969808091380285, 27.683542557161456, 16.32887177391809, 20.83265136170635, 19.744599828720734, 32.169703403084604, 26.85577392210479, 32.28933558298157, 46.62804100453387, 23.933153135905414, 41.815287021732495, 13.656362758480725, 18.219712541379103, 16.571526562819027 ], "mse": [ 1681.5385015260713, 1319.89549456254, 916.6876351665992, 449.56886374124855, 8568.431330216832, 579.8643158643629, 468.3074669183636, 586.9741557589751, 289.95135200661133, 1059.9180490596805, 468.56158528070034, 1598.7507852724227, 451.348335054277, 1026.8262961468945, 666.4191792365781, 1845.0800600240984, 1172.7531423705302, 1965.9941518850649, 4631.636120167838, 1151.4687758401062, 3196.6438605022668, 432.2143641841001, 606.4314620887875, 464.52536593537025 ], "var": [ 1730.8528886227577, 3693.699313113613, 1178.2996711506246, 1047.9105076013404, 2196.481904799403, 1327.4188541337683, 1105.6537363829525, 838.7617934930141, 1144.7650181845243, 1972.2113116185624, 1137.8254127213656, 1317.399332227541, 1460.4691536941043, 1869.3920161776375, 1494.9472168656719, 1245.5265320102556, 1948.6730860640428, 1581.439812496278, 1571.4717311621669, 1891.2003974905635, 1584.3082830849462, 1435.2077983865656, 2868.437375924772, 1036.3011695231764 ], "zero": [ 0.004107235859007306, 0.004080906368179914, 0.001999307250151457, 0.004675504068246624, 0.0024059110366647647, 0.004106849813207206, 0.005162534004508352, 0.0014327243266984233, 0.005377821084993477, 0.005160387746143972, 0.0027289307783392243, 0.00427080702033612, 0.003890528867095744, 0.0029190166892736733, 0.006163906541972583, 0.006425912759113419, 0.0032438854038067703, 0.0025674216209428478, 0.005910128806527365, 0.004378221369137746, 0.0068921501355650285, 0.002893131915381545, 0.0022965660143551385, 0.0013238765909517358 ] }, "crps": 17.20305880841416, "crpss": 0.07188836866571591, "rps": 0.43759128471637804, "rpss": 0.03450327349674398, "mean_bias_mm": -0.11897271970978689, "mean_mae_mm": 25.49581149201171, "mean_rmse_mm": 38.51395345023796, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0423461244176406, "zero_fraction": 0.003933902752941685, "correlation": 0.2365850845431115, "pit_histogram": [ 0.11237, 0.07634, 0.08085, 0.09816, 0.11114, 0.11231, 0.11129, 0.09442, 0.10237, 0.10074 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.10044742427949065 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 27.651541760895796, 30.785278460921866, 15.973796744727329, 9.500695904777627, 89.77113259168033, 12.37317755675951, 8.172018566897828, 10.644972742237297, 9.586362476031471, 14.602142735861946, 15.161371650742957, 38.1963991038743, 11.098072431992957, 28.180671012415914, 18.20801315453755, 19.62437038564786, 16.71466744163415, 29.82183714805073, 62.95454948550653, 15.332846709176856, 55.490912331174165, 13.44814085444846, 16.957766109536728, 10.704476795579719 ], "crps_clim": [ 18.52395116853421, 36.87672256900793, 18.170789562622396, 12.289909839909377, 126.90605491615098, 17.41989047035546, 17.706970523055745, 12.351304505468207, 13.796387526958524, 13.076262007562349, 14.560429422573055, 34.92849143385597, 13.963924627676032, 30.04724509587627, 16.82171605773241, 18.528924529932958, 12.89918086433115, 23.58960486668408, 67.53597007272384, 11.371976284610398, 55.90409404224628, 13.21381402559538, 23.974094843997456, 11.63096415863434 ], "rps": [ 0.8076889931160516, 0.3655008237329648, 0.41548866684058783, 0.3378597581401812, 0.1879406764020121, 0.34189451123031755, 0.24488884739037664, 0.3600836478099616, 0.3068077192401683, 0.4005662767908431, 0.37101048377152973, 0.6352939414604768, 0.3447218968719674, 0.4198754416891703, 0.4665818595111465, 0.47155206342794187, 0.5086631578966214, 0.6895583287733252, 0.47343803343671664, 0.38049345475000723, 0.5046780444391679, 0.36225006844969754, 0.221127907570979, 0.4021659676374631 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5345788969238703, 0.4969529963190181, 0.4649874789243917, 0.41318634740760435, 0.546313799621928, 0.4766642051904933, 0.47169819738486596, 0.3818166848915748, 0.4706484126244913, 0.36582560440255596, 0.35459642943677694, 0.5238068939647562, 0.42423555831428944, 0.4745855744751957, 0.4052259209726985, 0.43061974360983973, 0.4027224211940853, 0.5463137996219276, 0.5329121077567514, 0.33515957321525397, 0.5425588509144538, 0.35778764325037954, 0.505082202846066, 0.40346036499799176 ], "bias": [ 52.27237192845503, -15.515958177283562, 30.65289865008371, 13.583958911218826, -113.66956041233732, 27.039680585506993, 18.774091861901084, 9.566400799074444, 15.698870922973272, 29.43666704523391, -8.417503785874613, -46.50366944873103, 17.425560078745008, -21.55329860270283, -7.7197669588657325, -11.846367522313875, 37.42951628445895, 53.125429672307085, -78.11297334238618, 27.388740987262548, -68.21060213340414, 1.6461831395529003, 13.112751843268795, 15.225113350021676 ], "mae": [ 52.27237192845503, 37.982879985842125, 32.53726439929272, 17.615218224244572, 113.66962176968929, 27.640578647057957, 19.544588869699247, 17.77134666317704, 20.026574486269617, 29.99859163872526, 18.101856081782714, 46.99389070383091, 20.6341318244825, 33.57000295007283, 21.29503243639097, 25.190022225629015, 37.42951628445895, 53.125429672307085, 78.62917856149986, 28.2391951500996, 68.27294958894723, 16.085174364717652, 20.971347505272977, 19.6543284778635 ], "mse": [ 3100.736832093409, 2282.0399812491537, 1460.7469415483995, 425.27578177577755, 15626.484269326304, 963.0192270746272, 578.2274161250836, 445.81189667492265, 517.7065254305626, 1319.0468013841516, 699.0314773077381, 3080.9937150122473, 580.8309445166833, 2139.1019109436193, 739.334256329922, 1282.5318055246441, 1689.1911282440487, 3786.5770972912424, 9613.939302954823, 1229.8952703980642, 5941.46901117263, 435.4120068822492, 699.4071857095437, 498.8820416850787 ], "var": [ 2772.7000849437177, 5814.32479223376, 1903.644621429363, 1624.8233124302, 3685.8735079077906, 2053.421158348181, 1816.7450860929741, 1299.104542712588, 1824.418608492227, 3329.029893455382, 1827.4888153235547, 2258.708151985729, 2261.2232889951324, 3290.1243580835144, 2357.7781983239397, 2260.057947391544, 3060.208509982059, 2367.035119409425, 2529.6512891895077, 3224.7532102984483, 2512.334923628611, 2483.935927240002, 5795.981124825805, 1597.6603170072333 ], "zero": [ 0.008316691182693204, 0.009287845010621824, 0.004919247293003285, 0.010882446610028166, 0.0054081008320499505, 0.009355051071681927, 0.011784977022589457, 0.003466396164291583, 0.012059750319705482, 0.011156379179703016, 0.0059595864612205975, 0.008874967551789691, 0.0081766592827666, 0.006654584108075805, 0.014422017805884955, 0.014212890512040062, 0.0067258123465963595, 0.005267988170182857, 0.009702312176550338, 0.009357933478587264, 0.015251185948227396, 0.006726732558206739, 0.004781428869507172, 0.002217579843492373 ] }, "crps": 24.20646725646291, "crpss": 0.08667574438150638, "rps": 0.41750544043248644, "rpss": 0.0774838249200055, "mean_bias_mm": -0.38214434682646053, "mean_mae_mm": 35.71879551832536, "mean_rmse_mm": 49.638565663308825, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0399175708239798, "zero_fraction": 0.008540356824979004, "correlation": 0.34099680153450396, "pit_histogram": [ 0.11584, 0.08305, 0.08425, 0.09233, 0.11248, 0.10816, 0.11245, 0.09674, 0.10422, 0.09049 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.10628518115062896 } }, "operational": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 10.124924562839421, 17.299628195101217, 32.513560296043615, 8.67477458178616, 10.58757085589494, 10.472260132043306, 53.454345743218596, 19.25118881655475 ], "crps_clim": [ 9.895516071070114, 14.17903530722128, 38.54879256346864, 8.382690795432643, 12.100478712529222, 9.990734718607943, 72.45749800359884, 14.992025314000559 ], "rps": [ 0.3970810382533659, 0.6255670814353302, 0.4315881239491321, 0.36005767188561894, 0.4177439803984048, 0.4110710691352489, 0.27742373397994063, 0.6621501011012639 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.39574475776394596, 0.4437047305666722, 0.546311199561453, 0.36237075360897236, 0.43798495130070614, 0.3932407178861523, 0.5285945268864339, 0.42293901304422793 ], "bias": [ 2.124712901833519, -8.542172589381813, -37.58368630776569, 9.901656179029102, 9.236486665795127, 16.901770406241027, -61.3268458651027, -16.42028972932991 ], "mae": [ 13.158173282293637, 22.998337335417418, 39.2686125220138, 13.683610512850628, 19.206331281438718, 20.10861932429687, 66.60018533274828, 23.83043924979418 ], "mse": [ 316.73954532751986, 948.4862587372539, 2405.7863834752106, 377.68138583086375, 715.7843131099045, 731.9889635693846, 8258.829155857858, 1221.6888131804997 ], "var": [ 1461.2976668059507, 1083.8327636997187, 2414.6349755782885, 1347.7239859012152, 1034.0455567459173, 1688.787242033087, 2553.5791547823196, 971.2956285793286 ], "zero": [ 0.006611042612859415, 0.006822892258508982, 0.0027285308493558355, 0.005905467046760821, 0.008538559155125849, 0.006309421839344267, 0.0026492089365004537, 0.00641503169891355 ] }, "crps": 20.29728164793525, "crpss": 0.10063053552781576, "rps": 0.44783535001728814, "rpss": -0.014668296088599542, "mean_bias_mm": -10.713546042335167, "mean_mae_mm": 27.356788605106694, "mean_rmse_mm": 43.268037884633294, "spread_error_ratio": 0.9155869005120656, "zero_fraction": 0.005747519299671147, "correlation": 0.48785685053839134, "pit_histogram": [ 0.02785, 0.04436, 0.07265, 0.08482, 0.10496, 0.12234, 0.11802, 0.11524, 0.11644, 0.19332 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.3406329554469256 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 16.727889495457983, 10.046531813966688, 34.63991939544081, 13.09112371345361, 11.620835555105566, 15.592840451629167, 84.85720679063965, 17.916979535599847 ], "crps_clim": [ 16.023613765163336, 12.042589782487557, 48.89791233340558, 12.005332284732548, 16.60873516709748, 15.463955391266797, 122.93071411734311, 15.359489400606916 ], "rps": [ 0.4163233947698881, 0.3181298435646902, 0.2774024432428873, 0.3833566106366942, 0.3608705467733645, 0.45085581641324807, 0.14506942434573616, 0.48787162461913935 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4012574985052145, 0.3824738866553415, 0.5455702609428927, 0.3608387586327424, 0.5032563034561837, 0.45825636877918047, 0.5532043323522959, 0.38836007080680135 ], "bias": [ -6.667147872745042, 15.509893171284043, -36.88324234333316, 21.060628526932934, 26.54745219258447, 31.34087907831721, -103.00037518464704, -8.07701043917352 ], "mae": [ 17.410028094496276, 17.6765196757778, 40.25920044102201, 22.348014572929642, 26.878886866548665, 32.53961484374017, 105.79304473542705, 22.860660397240295 ], "mse": [ 522.6934087630203, 419.670011440105, 2454.431557961886, 731.4140194636428, 922.9057007708799, 1469.938767377723, 15195.116258766706, 1017.7674670138852 ], "var": [ 2469.082352316724, 1855.1148438040025, 4727.026945595566, 2376.2943981199205, 1786.2687657021077, 2760.1254518487335, 4601.183026207737, 1723.492367805954 ], "zero": [ 0.014543446975388612, 0.01417242245783987, 0.005232039538763815, 0.011351822922642132, 0.01682696214970597, 0.010364237645724566, 0.0058774221489267175, 0.013938536364668819 ] }, "crps": 25.561665843911666, "crpss": 0.2114623074649682, "rps": 0.354984963045706, "rpss": 0.20965549119437454, "mean_bias_mm": -7.5211153588475135, "mean_mae_mm": 35.72074620339774, "mean_rmse_mm": 53.30799329317069, "spread_error_ratio": 0.9903788455107198, "zero_fraction": 0.011538361275457563, "correlation": 0.8547316160961873, "pit_histogram": [ 0.02522, 0.06841, 0.11462, 0.1116, 0.10217, 0.13005, 0.12912, 0.12126, 0.09359, 0.10395 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.22555053274023015 } }, "full": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 17.953886017633508, 19.242577876910207, 12.735583560935769, 10.750488724720213, 52.30892488558055, 8.95601620110453, 7.648872657882747, 13.718775514709453, 7.168127448200692, 12.75893625976936, 10.648519533060888, 21.20017707332824, 11.054986302156996, 15.459250587739179, 14.129734813299482, 26.301561888639064, 13.583674538750078, 18.628446930295862, 35.82642121695633, 14.06286811475132, 31.21635774427495, 9.980892505516668, 13.12247591805768, 10.680600502040685, 10.574118977737902, 16.743710488249118, 31.8746807457963, 8.995019163780682, 10.457544196265065, 11.155028050946864, 52.954508050007135, 18.328079396970605 ], "crps_clim": [ 12.783782020353424, 22.511377726630435, 13.486233432588588, 12.69944443375219, 76.94122015896143, 12.20106868173247, 13.309810711893718, 13.382499762169186, 10.510860190270792, 11.948508158258385, 10.507324363236147, 19.219499581536, 12.15624842534919, 16.33110258238101, 12.70802225555305, 23.51737823123135, 11.65595466198018, 14.642515311603015, 37.809037033490284, 13.847526321731513, 31.179523394808456, 10.189531034239177, 17.927950590511536, 11.88010054552358, 10.658915041984727, 14.411604379011287, 38.49497020875638, 9.149304055972436, 12.957927427879538, 10.730182113419154, 72.85260912174846, 14.681246973704665 ], "rps": [ 0.709871954024356, 0.3452938840951814, 0.5176842296863182, 0.402889161892157, 0.16161966446536138, 0.35876536832274053, 0.3146793541543655, 0.491513337643799, 0.3189292182645756, 0.5111179342690599, 0.40794901983523957, 0.5433216881253718, 0.4295288062424591, 0.41542504216683196, 0.5048735509590259, 0.6317040635474412, 0.49993860002034046, 0.5837597086002827, 0.46608289888716403, 0.3951891520680078, 0.47681956509895196, 0.36951438752752774, 0.25338137202309424, 0.42744395949709646, 0.40723481367397185, 0.593260364599192, 0.3995004962593998, 0.35021536790569946, 0.3928992130655561, 0.4209125694910578, 0.2653539220635845, 0.6439456370969727 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5099729077980537, 0.45223457520613386, 0.5042070796721, 0.4223319286224781, 0.5541349166685237, 0.4891341241458317, 0.46260551253834703, 0.41790847293771854, 0.47376507250073746, 0.44625492156786695, 0.3665742104158703, 0.46239929772210925, 0.44039805540566207, 0.4473385695884163, 0.41904326359193766, 0.4782106643198007, 0.43099085878539034, 0.4595141391239318, 0.5079472946014302, 0.4035582725551801, 0.49665385808099777, 0.3644779560242052, 0.4652165601075734, 0.42884001042431774, 0.4110384555452049, 0.43924247151695794, 0.5531184205365902, 0.36375626291307794, 0.4448249078788689, 0.3952033064964951, 0.5357304983934386, 0.4226854013145511 ], "bias": [ 33.02259941596488, -1.7266354006536984, 24.063952423110138, 6.422197840120018, -61.727595128842786, 19.788327930564062, 15.574089129152084, -2.1781717108440772, 12.90315613800409, 26.595385970795192, 0.7577575067483067, -22.722462730692456, 9.432780145377288, -3.4769521070946148, 5.491324101635202, -20.421511258773403, 28.97752100456799, 33.30666844378898, -36.95964837052792, 7.040905332890738, -33.5028594665753, 1.3780833076957548, 6.010533385984288, 11.966328573460158, 4.59735815560718, -6.898777951084043, -36.42015014911641, 12.419550224154296, 11.18819434234768, 19.909881258550637, -60.725459687586465, -14.844868911928133 ], "mae": [ 34.52695578402432, 25.55211867675055, 25.435716723890252, 17.132649717394177, 66.05833365607978, 20.335126857750684, 16.8068245805318, 18.857129844885836, 15.125730483284874, 27.250736207191444, 15.40147894328076, 26.08653207165019, 17.848522587875397, 20.585159877426733, 20.2182709277667, 32.42982667227666, 29.10968389543226, 34.29417981969692, 45.95443051468133, 22.85557202337196, 39.75757615715827, 13.543001884788305, 18.421645257972347, 17.957711642617127, 14.399586650348848, 22.85992379600308, 37.87692061848402, 14.954290162714276, 19.47634783486465, 22.106356155868173, 66.25237801579138, 22.78576381444173 ], "mse": [ 1731.3644370927698, 1180.8559420718248, 1037.4235498156204, 483.76777080445885, 8011.901547374312, 667.7773773397724, 524.6981615894834, 607.3580845290827, 358.00472497941115, 1191.070374414465, 456.74525950203133, 1475.6281493591096, 544.5627980216481, 960.1520417199473, 681.8719270223584, 1848.7013784905064, 1328.8468801571933, 2067.91517374658, 4504.026883842783, 1035.4549097886456, 2925.237685147313, 376.4842681293903, 619.4859634695042, 554.5822822084363, 344.57383563028964, 908.4148385062175, 2253.3450890271015, 416.4889169875472, 719.61302709686, 815.6259178425917, 8186.653224682541, 1104.672288150211 ], "var": [ 1834.2641634344627, 3941.405468879767, 1249.0183408770288, 1190.6514511542475, 2700.6148950324837, 1447.0975656547728, 1218.0598576321863, 873.7966040494799, 1296.7993579262259, 2308.211058256204, 1270.665685635568, 1497.212537877156, 1593.1100957387107, 2101.97960366984, 1722.1936068855136, 1330.9459911787578, 2138.750873552054, 1791.2272156664308, 1712.1370481887113, 1992.0191843621462, 1792.0250530172552, 1509.8098987488331, 3022.6559721897434, 1119.2110839445468, 1673.1829366081984, 1202.3914805043858, 2579.9806878125514, 1527.3062437677363, 1107.216628976812, 1813.5439716711678, 2348.60897944507, 1092.4835876563093 ], "zero": [ 0.0032967328511550316, 0.0035131483115930727, 0.001404845610392226, 0.004243420080818231, 0.0018650033956493892, 0.003592727151101349, 0.004270244186864251, 0.0009729957536272322, 0.004701975247532382, 0.0036730339887980803, 0.002242338757947878, 0.0029470246186203797, 0.0031331601680643613, 0.002053500838831515, 0.005136359728871878, 0.0051631590433409095, 0.002217456941297607, 0.001918615635398157, 0.0029986174358515244, 0.0034048875600634684, 0.0055409129220607796, 0.002243860734961761, 0.0012425093769252273, 0.0008105616789930721, 0.005643733540316668, 0.005471654201508759, 0.002106069536184872, 0.0045570644497094975, 0.006078265053580818, 0.00528001197797649, 0.0018934284067641627, 0.004915315332818865 ] }, "crps": 17.81940143393963, "crpss": 0.09096756595094191, "rps": 0.43783182204913074, "rpss": 0.0317011571522845, "mean_bias_mm": -0.33620307010001094, "mean_mae_mm": 26.320515058009214, "mean_rmse_mm": 39.49814264167209, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0590996707912241, "zero_fraction": 0.0033916448286756217, "correlation": 0.2951832916410699, "pit_histogram": [ 0.11513, 0.07563, 0.08208, 0.09898, 0.10663, 0.10871, 0.11075, 0.09881, 0.0993, 0.10399 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.09041237607963959 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 27.35016221049303, 29.94910641666397, 16.06916553703206, 9.643650112072994, 87.66347531839551, 12.264137498094053, 8.075786155678633, 10.879830423982042, 9.816440315262058, 14.140212460571453, 14.995405982711482, 37.69118386673489, 11.406739115101114, 27.56461714947544, 18.01150757046028, 19.887437259814487, 16.391240962789016, 29.46291500572971, 61.792777184312534, 15.37164011449041, 53.72592278043577, 13.121497668647585, 16.83694816679911, 10.829512315421297, 17.100816001837536, 10.39118605598913, 35.443890781662624, 13.356614157604422, 12.253476209781043, 15.995473621098013, 86.67436737524288, 17.94634054969354 ], "crps_clim": [ 18.971560801065813, 35.6367147291537, 18.636916636476265, 13.008245857985397, 122.09582939281907, 17.78179646878491, 17.998112084481825, 13.076782675945864, 14.529083489713967, 13.24418302159305, 14.803193391112085, 34.07821828870073, 14.676722636955915, 29.418403592206143, 16.790159921611743, 19.251560181834897, 13.33628914107295, 23.960236587257803, 65.78672153414695, 11.854513425492197, 53.7131677313048, 13.396064979901809, 23.74020434353359, 12.389359531750223, 16.618238808520573, 13.04598803914388, 49.69954751558125, 12.770847456632547, 18.242786444806796, 16.533666942942173, 125.40466313928738, 15.824528080373357 ], "rps": [ 0.7914164205144629, 0.3605801955497203, 0.4263776861167604, 0.34672416865641664, 0.19741847092233444, 0.3504008298493384, 0.24583828971167976, 0.36830368562797766, 0.30710838686680025, 0.3796895948778956, 0.3575889041631802, 0.6335855407308584, 0.35102651450487127, 0.4217349705703171, 0.4569154387544079, 0.469594100856113, 0.5096725207957594, 0.6730795980162583, 0.4877877089405004, 0.3795824418438719, 0.5185991205342065, 0.34776883379266127, 0.2262773925889144, 0.39615603877436883, 0.42279513187182904, 0.31340982372738097, 0.2691413738318136, 0.367536216618033, 0.37034138755291085, 0.4403849500814831, 0.13769851787713658, 0.4831612757707526 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.546221849426887, 0.5006209898385597, 0.47463997727575263, 0.41815000367394756, 0.5629552549427683, 0.49498688948174796, 0.477643485597547, 0.3820838914918218, 0.4675924281943521, 0.34140859723145817, 0.32837245319421293, 0.5374315918996531, 0.42791161191971255, 0.478997744827492, 0.3859727031231156, 0.43079003405987637, 0.4091224667534369, 0.5629552549427682, 0.5473749777298041, 0.31762780372493987, 0.5567250638845919, 0.3314668314118201, 0.5013535927665776, 0.3938931012781259, 0.4005237610004716, 0.37374789498522504, 0.5536094138716743, 0.347079043610374, 0.5202270950400264, 0.4553182914080023, 0.5617070387526095, 0.38432907468585364 ], "bias": [ 52.76250218690676, -13.250421422769431, 31.27909072910339, 14.836881185385042, -110.04709394991558, 28.1730007384226, 19.85354468056343, 10.031361747871843, 17.222748842649697, 31.513567658710965, -7.127320908633751, -44.67324691781762, 18.950294342617553, -19.05012955783128, -5.6031097759128485, -10.47343913632775, 38.33894825777295, 54.1893340661734, -75.98717148774865, 28.27843975227077, -65.68646802813548, 2.7052305505262897, 14.778507321320054, 15.965271735004062, -5.227993261654641, 17.075705546758137, -36.92182020349425, 23.117054172622368, 28.210349334908685, 33.24968180933113, -105.66459046145168, -6.866900003871963 ], "mae": [ 52.76250218690676, 35.11602326499269, 33.44357983189973, 18.555116022249724, 110.04709394991558, 28.715219017883555, 20.49933249308876, 18.63022879362635, 21.51865967401669, 31.74623531846857, 18.053697012821416, 45.248206909399165, 22.50575769398746, 32.07308413032017, 20.60962071542565, 26.073011205370584, 38.33894825777295, 54.1893340661734, 76.9494476428025, 29.033394572397658, 65.77407769409226, 15.760845521049319, 22.251930175910417, 20.309807285638527, 17.521557139672154, 19.35084777352288, 39.71243344428947, 23.733553467194394, 28.43234153373284, 33.930136154335926, 107.42868073806831, 22.515935152104838 ], "mse": [ 3096.727214409145, 1996.0669753861014, 1520.632872048331, 463.8653022578169, 14834.735883944288, 1009.3394399718966, 597.631664799956, 497.2034580961329, 599.8891362360436, 1365.7964558586596, 670.2043539314413, 2976.742655756391, 679.6832826794997, 1981.3502171655227, 694.8304371527904, 1355.6414075406722, 1721.6446473878916, 3788.619156147669, 9390.276784315998, 1298.6721208370527, 5573.291542714155, 406.5991129664047, 780.4735271090536, 534.6643311631428, 511.3599472979714, 493.5496906222397, 2400.6063840616766, 788.9336674392642, 1007.9644882990033, 1539.287230804681, 15541.998487711197, 988.3994177474048 ], "var": [ 2917.065558906974, 6193.719525137311, 1991.1229827675054, 1869.516701594478, 4659.272990590078, 2227.054497382358, 1975.5366231835862, 1326.963865654225, 2090.83319030222, 3949.9758533065797, 2038.7166789800626, 2539.4371290815893, 2511.3993671710878, 3786.595717144069, 2730.491062536849, 2407.001449278762, 3407.820913244283, 2728.194398029615, 2747.246251556861, 3296.2914538427267, 2932.6631731625603, 2608.9692984157355, 6049.8972113221735, 1731.7051170452362, 2845.430815717844, 2039.8287586996134, 5117.296084589893, 2638.4006558852993, 1886.7652636713485, 2875.909363039718, 4115.153495348281, 1929.353709400091 ], "zero": [ 0.006930711139570358, 0.007901306506578427, 0.0036023527117354332, 0.010051345157110978, 0.004367416702585946, 0.008106046263387226, 0.009635233304755804, 0.0022875445811607583, 0.01074233521744095, 0.007827076643578993, 0.004988896845005159, 0.0066574819574353305, 0.006303914745169601, 0.004573722104180496, 0.012133607159979406, 0.012202326870128346, 0.005132348370550694, 0.004366281641898227, 0.006374484905828849, 0.007277733458822301, 0.012409034902019413, 0.005338895528114505, 0.0023556272560153564, 0.0015246960534387815, 0.012809750005047338, 0.01162149709641381, 0.004246856664484803, 0.00948147421330239, 0.012505526892388007, 0.00883470949375497, 0.004075074861792864, 0.010534359241398157 ] }, "crps": 24.44073363575244, "crpss": 0.13129951354298874, "rps": 0.4002404853403442, "rpss": 0.1150530688337632, "mean_bias_mm": -0.8140059517701812, "mean_mae_mm": 35.96345746372283, "mean_rmse_mm": 50.344650067639854, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0775015176189475, "zero_fraction": 0.0074124896404710525, "correlation": 0.525458012238237, "pit_histogram": [ 0.10236, 0.08117, 0.08915, 0.09807, 0.10781, 0.11045, 0.11529, 0.10718, 0.10447, 0.08406 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.09509891191566583 } }, "distribution_full": { "ethiopia": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9963851119201955, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.014844051660911595 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0013682824002028, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.05732009779258804 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.8839773236528452, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.1451062651069189 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0176968534625066, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.06240804827913835 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.033823282319924, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.07518193809887845 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": -0.003765686128849803 } }, "ondj_domain": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9857317944129546, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.017943823452616418 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9719177958568588, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.048168496089885764 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9085591928844859, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.10990151325856536 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0278300666357745, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.07311336330985108 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.015304460279166, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.07323609081674566 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": -0.00839961008113571 } } } }, "qdm": { "training": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 17.90900797668531, 19.53851744326016, 11.9093861530166, 10.453292581158173, 54.09772524350807, 8.413748076902968, 7.24615795769809, 13.542981074094051, 6.738393455677719, 12.428733044177084, 10.615972851278375, 22.087388528558566, 10.730785761287764, 15.447078378388158, 14.006517392468904, 26.486899773742266, 12.976763012857887, 18.88863770939699, 36.74817315189811, 15.092310572815752, 32.768371757642115, 10.241942874598863, 13.532577563800121, 9.922909630017797 ], "crps_clim": [ 12.317536543467577, 23.35796459817729, 12.697045070793552, 12.202051839195779, 80.47285365334993, 11.548375983365016, 12.678451972317543, 13.236171134630228, 9.77344956703739, 11.308094418769002, 10.495885058363076, 19.78743863254775, 11.56945900909618, 16.417052730597515, 12.717960992194332, 23.466029141135742, 10.74931047318028, 14.20169205564696, 38.727205395504946, 14.581796635287228, 32.862113763760696, 10.161605103260042, 18.582117729180727, 10.941519369614019 ], "rps": [ 0.6989223998733838, 0.3732774918547893, 0.5225207946160342, 0.40247365997662377, 0.19688204914281865, 0.34945937549863426, 0.30284473970946785, 0.4909004460800193, 0.32200253320774136, 0.4876814823501887, 0.3856238118044453, 0.5595545940883744, 0.44445983766825453, 0.40915500852071024, 0.4850522489086505, 0.6413367738016634, 0.49289905398907224, 0.5893455192445699, 0.46747157020138913, 0.4068484906425257, 0.4868317827824459, 0.3806707797017607, 0.26541364199704354, 0.43929611314309075 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.503268882341884, 0.45696255193683133, 0.4925766326091148, 0.42240641708616883, 0.5420235822074022, 0.4714149775295732, 0.455605992500462, 0.4281783876000402, 0.46522974758146945, 0.45001555732494986, 0.3793571949725829, 0.4624359120204484, 0.4373678925332641, 0.4400525449202173, 0.42589693023153363, 0.47068205353537346, 0.4255615214855194, 0.4516170482691049, 0.49843663106201835, 0.41189108424683096, 0.4992305010159512, 0.3787617113337185, 0.4739156168036444, 0.434610826319066 ], "bias": [ 31.531065601245434, -6.191847367353058, 22.42048522255639, 3.9554835600201583, -65.33299833908721, 17.631986685099573, 14.24367761721634, -3.735332744764509, 11.162322187067705, 25.072596245502428, -1.5417240150690774, -24.644002775115677, 7.813131255026791, -5.934050365818266, 2.5266623815794786, -22.837587227069985, 27.51370360822863, 31.62076532543221, -40.340804129487125, 4.5835747454156355, -36.18486910739278, -0.2038842280834638, 3.6995184627592264, 10.981233817906558 ], "mae": [ 33.92698884493134, 25.78141368986176, 23.88342030678451, 16.034346542072072, 68.91760797654017, 18.581267206708866, 16.01022804167668, 18.48006786526459, 13.839932302250151, 26.253616816448744, 15.10800757972786, 27.48019895985789, 16.12970826531241, 20.712861912352807, 19.65001358390031, 32.411044738053064, 27.693872132408256, 33.252894261392186, 46.60877569909575, 23.897899344712613, 41.65299286921009, 13.697543898879829, 18.147346467176032, 16.891004475600994 ], "mse": [ 1755.789057392273, 1281.8656148191444, 929.2045004248723, 437.38785966053825, 8344.542641037819, 575.2325326389071, 496.633201007811, 572.5115245435669, 300.04405082574374, 1162.2993358813594, 474.12055721363623, 1587.845497327048, 442.9271023587258, 998.5555458580583, 661.7971718561317, 1879.088405514967, 1237.2788086472176, 2129.363793584907, 4638.795466369579, 1165.5178214669888, 3165.7641493342007, 427.74977507140403, 597.0829498450147, 484.8869375844289 ], "var": [ 1793.8352674986954, 3708.850912042524, 1212.3564481918897, 1090.9316008802543, 2177.1961798224934, 1338.2803616923995, 1325.5335258414304, 856.3189490021888, 1252.233218676279, 2200.637825959923, 1187.0257192202123, 1425.9128455686077, 1619.9542317417338, 1937.2172157423174, 1574.283924771598, 1294.272500386217, 2133.4321611706987, 1647.0574810535948, 1633.708526019636, 1895.1308259512407, 1680.5877760932449, 1490.1287392212682, 2920.8794998409808, 1133.4962925126556 ], "zero": [ 0.0037837374139784055, 0.0042973178958341665, 0.004000460745860557, 0.00394598010500693, 0.0042973178958341665, 0.0038650264996121916, 0.00402722667198197, 0.004270351030606289, 0.003918781426914228, 0.004297317895834167, 0.004243348960538759, 0.004216505825324778, 0.004108406446263773, 0.004216382609056248, 0.0042973178958341665, 0.004270163478568998, 0.0040812059069845405, 0.003837917361412923, 0.004757303555444164, 0.0042973178958341665, 0.0042973178958341665, 0.004243367076703952, 0.0042973178958341665, 0.004107938175920941 ] }, "crps": 17.159344665205413, "crpss": 0.07424676348478187, "rps": 0.4417051749501541, "rpss": 0.02542643012112944, "mean_bias_mm": 0.325379433992308, "mean_mae_mm": 25.626793907509125, "mean_rmse_mm": 38.59311483297266, "spread_error_ratio": 1.064802091362084, "zero_fraction": 0.00416563869004245, "correlation": 0.235706181411476, "pit_histogram": [ 0.09968, 0.09394, 0.09174, 0.09649, 0.10143, 0.10918, 0.11071, 0.09549, 0.10391, 0.09743 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.050458938977270995 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 28.093404821014428, 30.52046633575581, 15.605501638389734, 9.34883490764261, 88.52287108368576, 12.198412768525253, 8.192307009695089, 10.364664126714805, 9.595362903388123, 15.080693188560161, 14.863512764075638, 38.27428121694285, 10.939135501990208, 27.745734144589317, 18.12681865801757, 19.66682749489644, 16.937868648883164, 31.458341928484824, 63.58374058466478, 15.090551777694406, 54.93951729688077, 13.312102914382061, 16.969505460394497, 10.477040924461598 ], "crps_clim": [ 18.52395116853421, 36.87672256900793, 18.170789562622396, 12.289909839909377, 126.90605491615098, 17.41989047035546, 17.706970523055745, 12.351304505468207, 13.796387526958524, 13.076262007562349, 14.560429422573055, 34.92849143385597, 13.963924627676032, 30.04724509587627, 16.82171605773241, 18.528924529932958, 12.89918086433115, 23.58960486668408, 67.53597007272384, 11.371976284610398, 55.90409404224628, 13.21381402559538, 23.974094843997456, 11.63096415863434 ], "rps": [ 0.8018209509999151, 0.3652742957961097, 0.40425231722244215, 0.34264848086609034, 0.20263169856511065, 0.3426565071466866, 0.24281091990646647, 0.3545847298042071, 0.3247390784490668, 0.41206703783622817, 0.36080906941727514, 0.6241461890730514, 0.3434392955739705, 0.4145366805841974, 0.46206056116228694, 0.47008953481237203, 0.5084000471398082, 0.729941287488804, 0.47706089186042144, 0.37355965591021034, 0.49842284146033633, 0.35762081903387366, 0.2320659918911638, 0.40513841280690127 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5345788969238703, 0.4969529963190181, 0.4649874789243917, 0.41318634740760435, 0.546313799621928, 0.4766642051904933, 0.47169819738486596, 0.3818166848915748, 0.4706484126244913, 0.36582560440255596, 0.35459642943677694, 0.5238068939647562, 0.42423555831428944, 0.4745855744751957, 0.4052259209726985, 0.43061974360983973, 0.4027224211940853, 0.5463137996219276, 0.5329121077567514, 0.33515957321525397, 0.5425588509144538, 0.35778764325037954, 0.505082202846066, 0.40346036499799176 ], "bias": [ 53.246545978658304, -16.660702557956693, 30.923503276594783, 13.26150751623807, -112.0183862008484, 26.914183366346265, 20.404407195313738, 10.163909354057735, 16.335669482906482, 31.072794766636264, -8.133379237284538, -46.34899885961996, 17.686437896824213, -21.111231262026415, -7.687249740548136, -12.515911470345163, 38.68565190370922, 55.08257288248723, -78.97893270541003, 27.356804482700174, -67.67427251559197, 2.0195697688781085, 13.616578194488605, 16.636579611572213 ], "mae": [ 53.246545978658304, 37.398196208783595, 32.76835369474637, 17.167294662817774, 112.03510958031042, 27.545744740290196, 21.051981739888497, 17.99296718077211, 20.691744741900912, 31.532513990274133, 18.064990515293243, 46.84989519048585, 20.800739222955446, 33.0196329382846, 20.852127280437106, 26.08596611440207, 38.68565190370922, 55.08257288248723, 79.27389377445346, 28.324400162171745, 67.74794305257191, 15.857547700938122, 20.91834386141199, 20.446238815616 ], "mse": [ 3250.9288122543, 2221.206693340393, 1473.0086583783625, 401.68905292534754, 15156.963406518427, 948.8621214746813, 633.946437947259, 455.27634251799486, 534.9835801772404, 1461.2036331961442, 696.4484833356137, 3083.9069313782484, 587.7555494096813, 2060.482976099, 713.6028316969478, 1379.8520834323751, 1812.669285446212, 4128.490436392516, 9708.346173367227, 1262.6596345110897, 5871.305972461988, 434.28129757632723, 711.4960650716955, 540.6311886537026 ], "var": [ 2890.6600088955724, 5698.141409844124, 2024.6265120764585, 1710.1965616719872, 3620.6395311582723, 2050.484306363482, 2282.6943062653568, 1341.9720274194726, 2030.0656062008375, 3499.3066581613484, 1871.45436437546, 2299.823167094205, 2278.9038843266194, 3369.139261418708, 2527.2347645436757, 2317.182939934196, 3508.8379757482912, 2461.7317636933185, 2584.0527827452675, 3166.1270793690696, 2703.1991553254716, 2594.9749054644917, 5804.825656659252, 1726.0499767823312 ], "zero": [ 0.008248788181184276, 0.009358284557021911, 0.008804517491598704, 0.00866517747682167, 0.009358284557021911, 0.008457232408721569, 0.008734855521978878, 0.009289135207540352, 0.008595072614579894, 0.009358284557021914, 0.009219895584616177, 0.009358507604183205, 0.009150960045661445, 0.009219895584616177, 0.009358284557021911, 0.009288654280251878, 0.009150176351766815, 0.008318570205948131, 0.009844130769769163, 0.009358284557021911, 0.009358284557021911, 0.009289090070819045, 0.009358284557021911, 0.009080433350118199 ] }, "crps": 24.162812420822082, "crpss": 0.08832286702205461, "rps": 0.41878238728362477, "rpss": 0.07466229492108545, "mean_bias_mm": 0.09490213032417098, "mean_mae_mm": 35.976683163902514, "mean_rmse_mm": 49.803780666214976, "spread_error_ratio": 1.055827240238226, "zero_fraction": 0.009092628527055372, "correlation": 0.32813137741663356, "pit_histogram": [ 0.12331, 0.07998, 0.08117, 0.0909, 0.10643, 0.10986, 0.11569, 0.098, 0.10799, 0.08667 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.12655120744360304 } }, "operational": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 9.978373975974625, 17.048404610414398, 32.4837776515304, 8.567751754678817, 10.43571304972983, 10.394502515402822, 53.06580710334047, 19.020756335553653 ], "crps_clim": [ 9.895516071070114, 14.17903530722128, 38.54879256346864, 8.382690795432643, 12.100478712529222, 9.990734718607943, 72.45749800359884, 14.992025314000559 ], "rps": [ 0.37753209500310236, 0.6196506077219183, 0.42518514324237083, 0.3570848115034347, 0.41776998107841934, 0.40902637281908905, 0.2913189664522613, 0.6482535708348948 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.39574475776394596, 0.4437047305666722, 0.546311199561453, 0.36237075360897236, 0.43798495130070614, 0.3932407178861523, 0.5285945268864339, 0.42293901304422793 ], "bias": [ 2.4519058680044545, -8.67596623727147, -37.046939748135955, 9.668676219242812, 9.315662346414554, 16.30251317116577, -60.269611598926026, -16.09626677359463 ], "mae": [ 13.264894425392264, 22.704230815038315, 39.00121817080783, 13.558427481059098, 19.19185043721939, 19.67981366579273, 66.18409072674854, 23.548983809228975 ], "mse": [ 316.2147856749678, 935.0224725085669, 2373.744514667505, 372.68201324047226, 709.8107164928452, 698.9320704163417, 8206.991694163871, 1211.9184090782005 ], "var": [ 1507.4181588174174, 1120.3583480522466, 2438.663543240033, 1359.8002577629775, 1107.0388978171986, 1680.504640427302, 2679.12916839882, 1013.2771359288258 ], "zero": [ 0.004067260674492772, 0.0040804553524839615, 0.004093724663568868, 0.004093724663568868, 0.004080496983349405, 0.004200388669875357, 0.004093724663568868, 0.004093692670593384 ] }, "crps": 20.124385874578127, "crpss": 0.10829152096374073, "rps": 0.44322769358193637, "rpss": -0.004228649231692083, "mean_bias_mm": -10.54375334413756, "mean_mae_mm": 27.14168869141089, "mean_rmse_mm": 43.04839816451184, "spread_error_ratio": 0.9330330770924375, "zero_fraction": 0.004100433542687685, "correlation": 0.5009114464765221, "pit_histogram": [ 0.02059, 0.04997, 0.07928, 0.08888, 0.10166, 0.11732, 0.11787, 0.1114, 0.12467, 0.18836 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.3225523942373193 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 16.60514285260252, 9.787709200117712, 35.13771464864682, 12.932062001405255, 11.399807025086414, 15.499823771453324, 84.00010214129023, 17.83345786954344 ], "crps_clim": [ 16.023613765163336, 12.042589782487557, 48.89791233340558, 12.005332284732548, 16.60873516709748, 15.463955391266797, 122.93071411734311, 15.359489400606916 ], "rps": [ 0.41136530205331995, 0.3124969356432501, 0.2942442414834296, 0.38510731616363025, 0.3595074939436934, 0.4535668483838542, 0.1721640178334304, 0.4771445762187725 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4012574985052145, 0.3824738866553415, 0.5455702609428927, 0.3608387586327424, 0.5032563034561837, 0.45825636877918047, 0.5532043323522959, 0.38836007080680135 ], "bias": [ -6.326065023174647, 14.78937954796535, -36.827390313988275, 20.473606838076147, 26.2946043580768, 30.431565435511974, -101.5062343062789, -8.170934076269177 ], "mae": [ 17.514461126342315, 17.21052440286878, 40.63099769397587, 21.960587153026733, 26.66619678579105, 31.935096238462766, 105.15878991396853, 22.89015741865779 ], "mse": [ 524.9313219336372, 397.36070546009864, 2478.900317721472, 712.5083256238693, 909.6833827888067, 1408.2706344685075, 15148.216426398742, 1023.3697401472334 ], "var": [ 2553.3751853921294, 1914.2595695076543, 4700.20708771539, 2373.255635409329, 1868.769646021219, 2736.2359364761865, 4850.255149729564, 1773.2218944944716 ], "zero": [ 0.009038449559042665, 0.009072283799396496, 0.00910630941645788, 0.00910630941645788, 0.009072390550672162, 0.009379820875311688, 0.00910630941645788, 0.00910622737898619 ] }, "crps": 25.399477438768216, "crpss": 0.21646556787564342, "rps": 0.3581995914654226, "rpss": 0.2024983882636614, "mean_bias_mm": -7.605183442510091, "mean_mae_mm": 35.49585134163673, "mean_rmse_mm": 53.15453985143504, "spread_error_ratio": 1.003672799529951, "zero_fraction": 0.009123512551597854, "correlation": 0.8628665625686948, "pit_histogram": [ 0.02323, 0.0717, 0.11795, 0.10381, 0.10295, 0.1216, 0.14182, 0.1187, 0.10363, 0.09461 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.22091473525174615 } }, "full": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 18.514006901640194, 19.13044008514924, 12.986506181077429, 10.546227754405466, 51.130733911964036, 8.834933140361262, 7.70395254763741, 13.358646599863118, 7.129275352994672, 13.146520966907628, 10.546092708380744, 21.02878984391956, 10.956769539512177, 15.240866894923839, 14.185690793455334, 26.175417172522423, 14.054936414824612, 19.52756489647548, 35.78041855986066, 13.982240857048653, 31.003937518879358, 9.836963678294062, 13.09608670950077, 10.58930617750166, 10.435255637354203, 16.566149949622986, 31.61660701535952, 8.863695074148257, 10.29868404557707, 11.084164148859244, 52.25591221515633, 18.169025635231822 ], "crps_clim": [ 12.783782020353424, 22.511377726630435, 13.486233432588588, 12.69944443375219, 76.94122015896143, 12.20106868173247, 13.309810711893718, 13.382499762169186, 10.510860190270792, 11.948508158258385, 10.507324363236147, 19.219499581536, 12.15624842534919, 16.33110258238101, 12.70802225555305, 23.51737823123135, 11.65595466198018, 14.642515311603015, 37.809037033490284, 13.847526321731513, 31.179523394808456, 10.189531034239177, 17.927950590511536, 11.88010054552358, 10.658915041984727, 14.411604379011287, 38.49497020875638, 9.149304055972436, 12.957927427879538, 10.730182113419154, 72.85260912174846, 14.681246973704665 ], "rps": [ 0.7123076623216592, 0.3650540360609663, 0.5526055587309521, 0.3980359061049033, 0.1882016338836228, 0.3691238322575833, 0.31457867014159707, 0.4727375018505091, 0.333064891954483, 0.4976244556580273, 0.3958005148781284, 0.5295147768631733, 0.43481923980915343, 0.4142182640890433, 0.49647233317938355, 0.6317144870804512, 0.5177974131356511, 0.6035557181023657, 0.47104554490020734, 0.39688689843346947, 0.4749975968648101, 0.37591209342538584, 0.26317750383582306, 0.422840937503657, 0.3903603930037909, 0.588411409349205, 0.3875917184386765, 0.349724304599692, 0.3907861101582173, 0.4177711092807621, 0.27683292877138366, 0.6337376955104846 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5099729077980537, 0.45223457520613386, 0.5042070796721, 0.4223319286224781, 0.5541349166685237, 0.4891341241458317, 0.46260551253834703, 0.41790847293771854, 0.47376507250073746, 0.44625492156786695, 0.3665742104158703, 0.46239929772210925, 0.44039805540566207, 0.4473385695884163, 0.41904326359193766, 0.4782106643198007, 0.43099085878539034, 0.4595141391239318, 0.5079472946014302, 0.4035582725551801, 0.49665385808099777, 0.3644779560242052, 0.4652165601075734, 0.42884001042431774, 0.4110384555452049, 0.43924247151695794, 0.5531184205365902, 0.36375626291307794, 0.4448249078788689, 0.3952033064964951, 0.5357304983934386, 0.4226854013145511 ], "bias": [ 34.098941075120095, -2.3831949786608875, 24.90332896817008, 6.407860705551266, -59.474867933091346, 19.9528353116768, 16.366319821250233, -1.2059085909775844, 13.399445965134346, 27.768914048413365, 1.2413276860519582, -21.958680832140484, 10.17440333530301, -2.9708726908357317, 5.599811012420737, -20.559862996157978, 30.212373761247196, 34.33863323634397, -37.027492386918304, 7.532391305059348, -32.918710887846466, 2.2532389784085423, 7.653120456096532, 13.219467625665423, 4.935247082764694, -7.037180184776492, -35.2835404982791, 12.15231814818908, 11.30848034818627, 19.497981312399805, -59.16191087790272, -14.613500338468338 ], "mae": [ 35.5662581523016, 25.046253017468047, 26.194185066729958, 16.992430432054466, 64.35817205053077, 20.465691947501426, 17.582142178648855, 18.955767035190018, 15.62856069749886, 28.404560605479443, 15.455420869521193, 25.73314499969095, 17.662735631095337, 20.457558637689438, 20.16903528632129, 32.70909789648594, 30.329076006550018, 35.2641541733765, 45.896164043360315, 23.108827156836963, 39.43307488667366, 13.554698236681606, 18.69792675660235, 18.661302267202483, 14.494260788806661, 22.662440002791136, 37.134387936591416, 14.827833369133844, 19.50577430309271, 21.76485173407662, 65.50409778911467, 22.518804826274167 ], "mse": [ 1849.8859837506573, 1143.0308524490035, 1077.1920716266648, 477.4384678913893, 7587.598084142269, 664.6776332769451, 566.1214137649722, 607.4164510739088, 367.6564203174291, 1304.1433463807791, 453.11269245143524, 1442.9602220855243, 540.7192405227644, 932.6730539248073, 681.6487352923315, 1884.217606660626, 1422.7512993065257, 2223.0607214220777, 4506.364102567766, 1055.7415871047897, 2872.078566361133, 363.6088591217209, 626.3842186517963, 594.9141877931809, 344.1961287358057, 900.918552590018, 2173.224857681507, 411.27948632411545, 711.9074478490923, 788.0896067291591, 8072.151424977843, 1098.3205598049763 ], "var": [ 1962.3373034844005, 4027.6785070711153, 1336.1671831275721, 1232.060524280732, 2923.0739903026656, 1487.057095349278, 1465.9863158348494, 944.6183937917414, 1402.793361175663, 2449.905810610288, 1319.6751277338042, 1633.0179398034836, 1776.7531981041427, 2188.428883061232, 1800.7599224069718, 1395.7482651886316, 2408.174557199481, 1845.8716862530546, 1829.6505394835908, 2089.28131407303, 1927.231932896498, 1604.0725105874726, 3189.5225850667707, 1243.3254729684186, 1720.0622254014677, 1237.0751080565, 2680.948722306624, 1530.0586482542521, 1184.0217884824267, 1832.6688396806908, 2451.3933608670322, 1135.5515159858383 ], "zero": [ 0.003296953216159685, 0.0036212263385380816, 0.003405269784583231, 0.003431837265755639, 0.0036212263385380816, 0.0033512148938359986, 0.0034862351325266098, 0.0036481579992614327, 0.003459169241096149, 0.003594207180131218, 0.003675211848427456, 0.0035133604188626686, 0.0035672076830198718, 0.0035672755194078665, 0.0036212263385380816, 0.0037019092314489336, 0.0034049599538629894, 0.0033239195676421957, 0.004054175235457539, 0.0036212263385380816, 0.0036212263385380816, 0.003648424716254525, 0.0036212263385380816, 0.003485876096649857, 0.003695983536800883, 0.003629810873155134, 0.003643047182011766, 0.0036695111710878603, 0.003417919929442726, 0.003617361267182441, 0.003643047182011766, 0.003656276376528801 ] }, "crps": 17.742994341512787, "crpss": 0.09486536944702861, "rps": 0.43960322313053807, "rpss": 0.027783567038988766, "mean_bias_mm": 0.26314740585616647, "mean_mae_mm": 26.398084024417898, "mean_rmse_mm": 39.427736066534194, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0914040752536922, "zero_fraction": 0.003572365016682304, "correlation": 0.29514588507459605, "pit_histogram": [ 0.09747, 0.09231, 0.09362, 0.0996, 0.0997, 0.10515, 0.10953, 0.10006, 0.10321, 0.09936 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.035889326399120944 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 28.061332913584685, 29.615707352442108, 15.780347212824669, 9.48452665486928, 85.50856071036024, 12.043348594734882, 8.210599121492262, 10.652391706010835, 9.763895034565245, 14.784355941490352, 14.670610814791369, 37.41069143517353, 11.162463497221873, 27.06666114389709, 17.853784223300647, 19.967316827886798, 16.817684870263722, 31.148581925362436, 62.10151919383763, 15.128688255939293, 53.18958360488212, 12.98789843139016, 16.70428589715016, 10.655175280126745, 16.96489755133193, 10.195495755195987, 35.58944405100409, 13.136139074581912, 12.013117595341997, 15.901237207088522, 85.25611405113665, 17.80765754354283 ], "crps_clim": [ 18.971560801065813, 35.6367147291537, 18.636916636476265, 13.008245857985397, 122.09582939281907, 17.78179646878491, 17.998112084481825, 13.076782675945864, 14.529083489713967, 13.24418302159305, 14.803193391112085, 34.07821828870073, 14.676722636955915, 29.418403592206143, 16.790159921611743, 19.251560181834897, 13.33628914107295, 23.960236587257803, 65.78672153414695, 11.854513425492197, 53.7131677313048, 13.396064979901809, 23.74020434353359, 12.389359531750223, 16.618238808520573, 13.04598803914388, 49.69954751558125, 12.770847456632547, 18.242786444806796, 16.533666942942173, 125.40466313928738, 15.824528080373357 ], "rps": [ 0.7947716492506016, 0.3641978040509856, 0.4154676532902083, 0.34758587047669354, 0.20917284363182276, 0.3536668171760175, 0.25138971300887214, 0.36629206237657785, 0.3206417172499493, 0.3962213548360532, 0.3526682642802828, 0.6219155625453716, 0.3480655124832648, 0.41292818683526916, 0.4521606173498109, 0.4695054764162997, 0.5177757946103173, 0.7214446500706773, 0.49410807279572155, 0.3722571568959311, 0.5117105616908101, 0.3412512723359924, 0.23521384634129133, 0.39735347205693733, 0.4153672940563704, 0.30720506127765335, 0.28134659163661674, 0.3701891645471346, 0.3668749719625991, 0.4413324880955717, 0.1558620127283546, 0.4704859724381188 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.546221849426887, 0.5006209898385597, 0.47463997727575263, 0.41815000367394756, 0.5629552549427683, 0.49498688948174796, 0.477643485597547, 0.3820838914918218, 0.4675924281943521, 0.34140859723145817, 0.32837245319421293, 0.5374315918996531, 0.42791161191971255, 0.478997744827492, 0.3859727031231156, 0.43079003405987637, 0.4091224667534369, 0.5629552549427682, 0.5473749777298041, 0.31762780372493987, 0.5567250638845919, 0.3314668314118201, 0.5013535927665776, 0.3938931012781259, 0.4005237610004716, 0.37374789498522504, 0.5536094138716743, 0.347079043610374, 0.5202270950400264, 0.4553182914080023, 0.5617070387526095, 0.38432907468585364 ], "bias": [ 54.483161332276616, -14.034083784052928, 32.08402142285457, 14.455174474713436, -106.63989590550297, 28.070979514602694, 21.583217451131315, 11.355693946764461, 17.641679191311777, 32.88426284667856, -6.686043601468734, -44.1144515224143, 19.065128430499936, -18.349607083274535, -5.906460028701729, -11.182979998518126, 40.42027367135148, 56.01541162687312, -76.35541475620421, 29.121359099095432, -65.11694037171324, 3.575728779990718, 16.656903212073914, 17.994583431965008, -4.763649162462141, 16.537373070304024, -35.65344544440552, 22.656885231434295, 28.077794009937183, 32.61719862538586, -103.29746018727126, -7.084845994059877 ], "mae": [ 54.483161332276616, 34.55181732151625, 34.20172859085311, 18.169221749620963, 106.64700028500344, 28.584548625109015, 22.18612807559281, 19.299053900279187, 22.022178498034464, 33.13961753564333, 17.889654713310726, 44.69963145257731, 22.41434244434031, 31.421799348020606, 20.18789954423446, 26.893499615463092, 40.42027367135148, 56.01541162687312, 77.11514289062228, 29.889773735448024, 65.2108077312192, 15.596478342242209, 22.520846078289107, 21.723137493218584, 17.545845975757334, 18.949491912783134, 39.18396635559786, 23.487644228468543, 28.332170990544473, 33.44631443449936, 106.12310344965474, 22.445227369041298 ], "mse": [ 3320.7864608669915, 1936.7237093479132, 1564.579667270179, 442.0274023071305, 13953.674737359357, 989.2240522815281, 671.7393409458881, 522.2522310613401, 607.7129351971096, 1514.4657251513604, 654.1083037960348, 2926.3305942598804, 674.4160641734799, 1908.714754380487, 673.4361135759243, 1450.8916399455522, 1905.9915514580857, 4089.4441969202003, 9431.949949397524, 1372.1230912188728, 5493.239958924681, 402.77734179436277, 811.1868058313152, 602.3057648319666, 510.24784505147795, 471.2173516106441, 2339.9079944516207, 779.9438864183704, 995.8733895480027, 1489.2909205484161, 15362.215704302083, 989.608016633047 ], "var": [ 3166.8726630097854, 6139.834170344468, 2194.903723287245, 1914.4978527118797, 5165.064055457765, 2246.774851495337, 2504.1502579489406, 1456.1578376419984, 2260.7595467812207, 3905.9219771041317, 2049.166380621249, 2608.7731888213757, 2521.6428079382094, 3855.141230437372, 2887.8627268464893, 2463.1800020313744, 4068.783961991855, 2769.4855819195277, 2906.5106242186143, 3410.882648796435, 3143.082609847587, 2771.541418614661, 6353.062318431945, 1924.067698462776, 2935.369580670584, 2106.921177083374, 5287.906681597519, 2651.1533248825735, 1985.2654859599168, 2896.791653765936, 4336.176651957811, 1987.6114254147558 ], "zero": [ 0.007277648276540235, 0.007901716307284236, 0.007555397291165051, 0.007554601494512223, 0.007901716307284236, 0.007416787908877493, 0.007624715315311473, 0.007970775384182527, 0.007693608103722715, 0.007832432865861374, 0.008040147780825381, 0.00783256695780267, 0.007832483282021482, 0.007832521821081368, 0.007901716307284236, 0.008108606114902968, 0.007693169695580561, 0.007277648276540235, 0.008318233937107972, 0.007901716307284236, 0.007901716307284236, 0.008040607341051137, 0.007901716307284236, 0.007762453137003421, 0.008256198373509984, 0.00808651618739384, 0.008120457179023335, 0.008188317036438549, 0.0075431782504503915, 0.008054592485953617, 0.008120457179023335, 0.008154379927822196 ] }, "crps": 24.30106604602569, "crpss": 0.1362637386332055, "rps": 0.40238842152494303, "rpss": 0.1103039002600611, "mean_bias_mm": -0.12151401471266166, "mean_mae_mm": 36.08740372867145, "mean_rmse_mm": 50.267536585771744, "spread_error_ratio": 1.1058121328336055, "zero_fraction": 0.007862462482731591, "correlation": 0.5193781303203554, "pit_histogram": [ 0.11023, 0.07941, 0.0862, 0.09575, 0.10457, 0.1083, 0.11884, 0.1086, 0.11249, 0.0756 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.12605753592604094 } }, "distribution_full": { "ethiopia": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0082531881018166, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.018259518976203704 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 1.026941515062134, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.05696415262146255 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9064661983766777, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.13347155488421056 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0170023294098958, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.0737532118295953 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0435970389731426, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.0844878681737334 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": -0.0035849659408431203 } }, "ondj_domain": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9928568824354831, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.013414411341354565 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9932970106021116, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.025421643801512444 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9296964391781475, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.1289219596253839 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0187933841600447, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.0718310065126979 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0281468647978296, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.07748141660886959 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": -0.007949637238875169 } } } }, "sdm": { "training": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 17.3700320896132, 19.652873693296254, 11.354319089606518, 10.84383185670291, 54.90368893287977, 8.349777010011278, 7.117027839614236, 14.177116131805109, 6.597372254054369, 11.802765763034348, 10.379362779817688, 22.5083702791405, 11.209307888922682, 15.540843191803205, 13.660286447989419, 26.97600940068146, 12.53189006392466, 18.415592276670562, 37.164621447449555, 15.386527601023529, 32.926440765775986, 10.407030735387577, 13.59348856626968, 10.294164640500787 ], "crps_clim": [ 12.317536543467577, 23.35796459817729, 12.697045070793552, 12.202051839195779, 80.47285365334993, 11.548375983365016, 12.678451972317543, 13.236171134630228, 9.77344956703739, 11.308094418769002, 10.495885058363076, 19.78743863254775, 11.56945900909618, 16.417052730597515, 12.717960992194332, 23.466029141135742, 10.74931047318028, 14.20169205564696, 38.727205395504946, 14.581796635287228, 32.862113763760696, 10.161605103260042, 18.582117729180727, 10.941519369614019 ], "rps": [ 0.648512299294117, 0.39127757986211986, 0.45412502492835516, 0.42225327789890915, 0.198275831955852, 0.3185472803779965, 0.2921206922145603, 0.5494360413193144, 0.3000381526026459, 0.4550302139677675, 0.3636008901285768, 0.591340684172082, 0.49228513001165786, 0.40413134256735733, 0.47560160368782134, 0.6675448577868628, 0.4694197691342016, 0.5692455952814865, 0.4907951824728942, 0.4278784913084501, 0.5065004412407973, 0.3910265045385812, 0.28266973813518237, 0.4746127450579843 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.503268882341884, 0.45696255193683133, 0.4925766326091148, 0.42240641708616883, 0.5420235822074022, 0.4714149775295732, 0.455605992500462, 0.4281783876000402, 0.46522974758146945, 0.45001555732494986, 0.3793571949725829, 0.4624359120204484, 0.4373678925332641, 0.4400525449202173, 0.42589693023153363, 0.47068205353537346, 0.4255615214855194, 0.4516170482691049, 0.49843663106201835, 0.41189108424683096, 0.4992305010159512, 0.3787617113337185, 0.4739156168036444, 0.434610826319066 ], "bias": [ 30.37987179956073, -7.419185260081366, 21.2048396842615, 3.0624181777330155, -67.30771705354593, 16.608777105252557, 13.128178071358285, -4.629136498758533, 10.09718518901903, 23.468734090726212, -2.5439392721201903, -25.66326809577445, 6.461655306120348, -6.988290855253983, 1.1707434695476986, -23.53463794065133, 26.24802548853236, 30.23711566701251, -41.03251817646087, 3.6374679855717953, -37.593115121402356, -1.313390865987616, 2.4843412608715107, 9.888096331336794 ], "mae": [ 32.84485231917912, 25.12272473127908, 22.784235476533606, 16.49039109305753, 69.39386688560414, 17.691949805298492, 15.1768422082717, 19.154506152483556, 12.888081235339541, 24.71327723841487, 14.181350969422608, 27.648288339498635, 16.473504103634117, 20.122039037067402, 18.58177653758395, 32.916535233889626, 26.80431025874726, 32.07029322309218, 46.99736738585109, 23.681842105047323, 41.25301295507561, 13.390270224111397, 17.82852103797614, 16.81505255086074 ], "mse": [ 1725.615741139285, 1259.1326906721094, 898.3740507602128, 464.54630687454414, 8465.866743450724, 553.6375469303416, 466.37828666440686, 607.515340578741, 278.67861932163606, 1079.3464021092495, 450.7215994754478, 1612.048654456744, 451.7819241414723, 997.673807308671, 627.5984820782002, 1919.6960390762745, 1198.694993084236, 2087.292218138591, 4654.953323620258, 1160.632774975709, 3170.232794087882, 423.6880108162254, 588.9141533621411, 482.81774799019104 ], "var": [ 1811.7772349047077, 3735.786699799633, 1231.8304462159613, 1100.6397834408701, 2139.6437056394634, 1360.489002540691, 1309.3028536419392, 870.8622298448932, 1247.002558105854, 2182.814397309929, 1189.6147775543518, 1416.9587315839335, 1572.6174626730585, 1991.9733719202902, 1596.0406659903583, 1297.7924957107575, 2156.137504563708, 1663.7164524275702, 1639.597217342456, 1925.528818515422, 1676.6205667104093, 1498.1219752944685, 2985.8349457543386, 1139.046814802255 ], "zero": [ 0.10403209928779632, 0.13009882422783126, 0.08986346282077366, 0.13973130339130216, 0.0737846022738619, 0.1318741060444386, 0.15059382737468918, 0.1067384526852383, 0.13976943375094075, 0.11817489555543004, 0.1121421456635483, 0.1346795431195144, 0.10832665296254139, 0.13199762531812576, 0.12727136159245458, 0.1738099856577471, 0.11393958845724383, 0.10171939449337253, 0.13884335736708367, 0.13076041568191463, 0.1139891445176102, 0.11470165093193074, 0.07551657648491963, 0.10913511156711908 ] }, "crps": 17.21511419774897, "crpss": 0.07123797577997926, "rps": 0.44317789041439887, "rpss": 0.022177046485162832, "mean_bias_mm": -0.8311562297138438, "mean_mae_mm": 25.209370462804987, "mean_rmse_mm": 38.52804079017931, "spread_error_ratio": 1.069366654786201, "zero_fraction": 0.11964556505114284, "correlation": 0.2439313407192919, "pit_histogram": [ 0.06476, 0.07723, 0.08497, 0.09751, 0.11188, 0.11756, 0.12375, 0.10531, 0.11484, 0.10218 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.15105336703781264 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 28.206569781311423, 30.608273010478467, 15.566655563159959, 9.19147786652534, 88.66339310461306, 12.086848404535436, 8.014896613080241, 10.55599165998598, 9.374605917113064, 14.812324957661238, 14.902687215797812, 38.5439385736588, 10.92353958388372, 28.10624869681529, 18.384714890982305, 19.662295301263235, 16.853689440535707, 30.966391285887152, 63.619898408288485, 15.407925334511683, 55.221746449229215, 13.444341886388568, 17.137068326368404, 10.676468355441333 ], "crps_clim": [ 18.52395116853421, 36.87672256900793, 18.170789562622396, 12.289909839909377, 126.90605491615098, 17.41989047035546, 17.706970523055745, 12.351304505468207, 13.796387526958524, 13.076262007562349, 14.560429422573055, 34.92849143385597, 13.963924627676032, 30.04724509587627, 16.82171605773241, 18.528924529932958, 12.89918086433115, 23.58960486668408, 67.53597007272384, 11.371976284610398, 55.90409404224628, 13.21381402559538, 23.974094843997456, 11.63096415863434 ], "rps": [ 0.7840287166347835, 0.3817494914406208, 0.40939789315586333, 0.3292299154956651, 0.208179181156904, 0.33610678780521197, 0.23446963774448887, 0.3692390033736487, 0.30645965791999863, 0.41325406398994974, 0.37041066596723254, 0.6407243825979284, 0.34406885027215106, 0.4311448444174963, 0.47457782168075485, 0.4729009343053467, 0.4990568486667882, 0.7015705555686095, 0.487080020662368, 0.39083092875488834, 0.5225188201504832, 0.36872176864665457, 0.24233693318174224, 0.3949867572055819 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5345788969238703, 0.4969529963190181, 0.4649874789243917, 0.41318634740760435, 0.546313799621928, 0.4766642051904933, 0.47169819738486596, 0.3818166848915748, 0.4706484126244913, 0.36582560440255596, 0.35459642943677694, 0.5238068939647562, 0.42423555831428944, 0.4745855744751957, 0.4052259209726985, 0.43061974360983973, 0.4027224211940853, 0.5463137996219276, 0.5329121077567514, 0.33515957321525397, 0.5425588509144538, 0.35778764325037954, 0.505082202846066, 0.40346036499799176 ], "bias": [ 53.47150991838556, -16.60724480227913, 30.68281946497539, 13.218719526571684, -112.0065028193888, 26.45569393386646, 19.69407884334685, 9.983015137159361, 15.796033128277701, 30.168321058049937, -8.012407473093399, -46.77645055209881, 17.03838362912101, -21.502737002198685, -7.8839433582707334, -12.759072009433925, 38.676002289404344, 54.76321676749416, -78.64350098664295, 27.332725299281442, -67.7692339114169, 1.8076716608925592, 14.420763855890904, 16.438294801585055 ], "mae": [ 53.47150991838556, 37.34104651329137, 32.569178131260855, 17.14636469489976, 112.02264804900616, 27.1684894473609, 20.40544148123909, 17.993123004737004, 20.13633753649663, 30.644302921194406, 17.98180516119346, 47.20089637224504, 20.47957397071669, 33.23309020897974, 20.943156855049487, 25.95163789254626, 38.676002289404344, 54.76321676749416, 79.01140649274738, 28.219949570502965, 67.84948040597857, 15.88917101858024, 21.111909634003872, 20.325797386365487 ], "mse": [ 3274.88245792785, 2207.6744593150174, 1452.4342178960464, 401.7562494836672, 15240.443508788198, 927.0025089658408, 595.7061358873101, 454.09715988689635, 510.7684074185696, 1377.207497605128, 688.1421644170988, 3125.52211758387, 567.3398432005243, 2087.5329796306423, 719.1282869554127, 1372.206013825466, 1805.8019382797243, 4102.845144077572, 9662.589349116746, 1239.2826598275208, 5894.107185735525, 433.2814257764671, 706.0210138715797, 532.8149027736739 ], "var": [ 2914.1684480454337, 5855.817693933203, 2050.691623349146, 1714.6607103133704, 3644.419345502701, 2096.6977869687657, 2265.605103017117, 1357.9934319496465, 2026.2846046404302, 3515.2945506271935, 1897.1795629681628, 2296.445048774982, 2275.505953005996, 3483.3473404952397, 2587.3019036253327, 2335.6588201637287, 3579.4789689124423, 2499.2453984025497, 2625.4202417392366, 3240.6010801507878, 2738.57738855627, 2610.2618584289676, 5957.27196091293, 1766.162482162953 ], "zero": [ 0.0761018409961773, 0.08575801494859552, 0.07305582284204944, 0.12147829426722169, 0.07313090566227234, 0.0838701656829054, 0.10011491725778207, 0.0718787608044478, 0.10954239264057355, 0.08144017864641116, 0.08986278726274796, 0.09068375398235892, 0.07721613602129652, 0.07417189707095861, 0.11977260044535411, 0.13332969382985574, 0.08078393889172682, 0.06604478842948468, 0.10349909074201209, 0.08311214748552087, 0.1234706890266646, 0.08285207486101244, 0.0691795492941714, 0.06612455876968104 ] }, "crps": 24.205499609479833, "crpss": 0.08671225427165918, "rps": 0.421376853366465, "rpss": 0.06892958656490866, "mean_bias_mm": -0.08391015002170359, "mean_mae_mm": 35.85564732181998, "mean_rmse_mm": 49.74040427905263, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0648846580316684, "zero_fraction": 0.08901979166088675, "correlation": 0.33223327865284236, "pit_histogram": [ 0.08957, 0.07583, 0.08999, 0.10053, 0.11646, 0.11764, 0.11755, 0.09621, 0.11009, 0.08614 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.12454292103702921 } }, "operational": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 9.973750926461593, 17.478979807423734, 33.241474955920104, 8.679218522372835, 10.492969303233492, 10.447703325999473, 53.09111335412242, 19.511553361456556 ], "crps_clim": [ 9.895516071070114, 14.17903530722128, 38.54879256346864, 8.382690795432643, 12.100478712529222, 9.990734718607943, 72.45749800359884, 14.992025314000559 ], "rps": [ 0.37738158866091226, 0.6591678048574097, 0.49804388046005, 0.36604669691767994, 0.4239148811747359, 0.4159143136638203, 0.31457888987598503, 0.6985036126344514 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.39574475776394596, 0.4437047305666722, 0.546311199561453, 0.36237075360897236, 0.43798495130070614, 0.3932407178861523, 0.5285945268864339, 0.42293901304422793 ], "bias": [ 1.260690647681913, -9.473262503228572, -38.19293448737584, 8.859804562694421, 8.4611791691687, 15.363386091671018, -61.289700953812265, -16.914604748646944 ], "mae": [ 12.418763829573079, 23.10938669922104, 39.947850810448514, 13.263565369571781, 18.86938926065749, 19.104048586806613, 65.91612519143301, 24.162094033115736 ], "mse": [ 298.3578008178213, 960.1329242605643, 2449.7003854600507, 369.8920400935039, 699.2719274738985, 692.8027190561086, 8164.1541468435935, 1237.9497164533525 ], "var": [ 1520.4985593793247, 1120.8451027785381, 2469.33119878941, 1372.6223526964318, 1094.7579248200834, 1663.4234939461212, 2675.518224572118, 1016.4461974888158 ], "zero": [ 0.1321568782530687, 0.1726748007108382, 0.10154517959330953, 0.1571617928416299, 0.16108589903544263, 0.13522970326868997, 0.08527931495380359, 0.17030971119873636 ] }, "crps": 20.364595444623774, "crpss": 0.0976478714287784, "rps": 0.4691939585306305, "rpss": -0.06306086471057193, "mean_bias_mm": -11.490680277730945, "mean_mae_mm": 27.09890297260341, "mean_rmse_mm": 43.11650156909025, "spread_error_ratio": 0.932542360713993, "zero_fraction": 0.13943040998193987, "correlation": 0.4995835023387044, "pit_histogram": [ 0.01188, 0.03237, 0.06397, 0.08433, 0.10229, 0.1221, 0.12553, 0.12706, 0.13135, 0.19912 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.4149102751905137 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 16.739827247033002, 9.758251980903209, 34.99358098844778, 13.06624427415809, 11.207928625335551, 15.539348603006639, 83.21157407521612, 18.05807881355281 ], "crps_clim": [ 16.023613765163336, 12.042589782487557, 48.89791233340558, 12.005332284732548, 16.60873516709748, 15.463955391266797, 122.93071411734311, 15.359489400606916 ], "rps": [ 0.42382693942299654, 0.314537506135067, 0.3029490925788722, 0.39902557528211285, 0.3458175941646209, 0.45497316781523367, 0.17494958611384434, 0.4973724713623547 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4012574985052145, 0.3824738866553415, 0.5455702609428927, 0.3608387586327424, 0.5032563034561837, 0.45825636877918047, 0.5532043323522959, 0.38836007080680135 ], "bias": [ -6.867956529496684, 14.496887582127382, -36.91474134179179, 20.31728317815658, 25.929664057447905, 30.42598423558791, -100.7887465280246, -8.530126360952497 ], "mae": [ 17.465324484517517, 16.904212649952843, 40.49456148943412, 21.922332627226204, 26.303929592671086, 31.89826868439115, 104.29715270050806, 23.047834262912822 ], "mse": [ 522.9315049636301, 385.01866703705304, 2467.16133066464, 711.4384295448357, 890.2610813173139, 1411.0163422599758, 14978.737262147024, 1037.1993493027555 ], "var": [ 2572.608665254621, 1905.228315209336, 4744.253805510431, 2405.4727018332605, 1862.289552059124, 2730.0325467371445, 4847.645653595242, 1786.1535087647528 ], "zero": [ 0.1073771871170292, 0.11802489028538325, 0.0716630026850346, 0.09857973028411332, 0.11013885773386943, 0.10002269081428417, 0.06758461525347494, 0.12880353683071719 ] }, "crps": 25.32185432595665, "crpss": 0.21886012035268376, "rps": 0.3641814916093878, "rpss": 0.18918018489402244, "mean_bias_mm": -7.7414689633682245, "mean_mae_mm": 35.29170206145173, "mean_rmse_mm": 52.919471802963535, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0099912745451962, "zero_fraction": 0.10027431387548827, "correlation": 0.8653580061134816, "pit_histogram": [ 0.01792, 0.0571, 0.10527, 0.11431, 0.11018, 0.13197, 0.14319, 0.12547, 0.10276, 0.09184 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.266270719522979 } }, "full": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 17.809882471582007, 19.210421981484185, 12.244079184519068, 10.923478292542711, 51.82391183674677, 8.69125763017175, 7.510668068601878, 14.041295672696831, 6.891186107308088, 12.357976221449587, 10.228300505949228, 21.458742172340735, 11.411700764892982, 15.335000771928359, 13.68052990957316, 26.679920095482796, 13.38208253141668, 18.879595343314172, 36.2631115381266, 14.332154289093177, 31.11146667951065, 9.942458599869365, 13.060418982695305, 10.896973299000411, 10.32240640244222, 17.029153979724757, 32.554000465041916, 8.95002499071623, 10.340066531234383, 11.067008198096916, 52.412872457450035, 18.68068198462424 ], "crps_clim": [ 12.783782020353424, 22.511377726630435, 13.486233432588588, 12.69944443375219, 76.94122015896143, 12.20106868173247, 13.309810711893718, 13.382499762169186, 10.510860190270792, 11.948508158258385, 10.507324363236147, 19.219499581536, 12.15624842534919, 16.33110258238101, 12.70802225555305, 23.51737823123135, 11.65595466198018, 14.642515311603015, 37.809037033490284, 13.847526321731513, 31.179523394808456, 10.189531034239177, 17.927950590511536, 11.88010054552358, 10.658915041984727, 14.411604379011287, 38.49497020875638, 9.149304055972436, 12.957927427879538, 10.730182113419154, 72.85260912174846, 14.681246973704665 ], "rps": [ 0.6543038144963154, 0.38059496849798063, 0.47834560734737597, 0.4178857884853139, 0.1873296569801575, 0.33335509267432045, 0.2972560287028428, 0.5295753352895284, 0.30313327352698094, 0.45766046070297717, 0.3641329740342191, 0.5587069248299207, 0.481481123534619, 0.40485407496776943, 0.47501149535230286, 0.6574309965005632, 0.49066079801693224, 0.5753614172007661, 0.49105422018906925, 0.4159848810779879, 0.4878738954192844, 0.37851694963189647, 0.27313796882766805, 0.4566690309197162, 0.37776939471120846, 0.6332980037839498, 0.4653144109257474, 0.35518070294597087, 0.39527363788334524, 0.4156329231432587, 0.2970461073858895, 0.6832931978291188 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5099729077980537, 0.45223457520613386, 0.5042070796721, 0.4223319286224781, 0.5541349166685237, 0.4891341241458317, 0.46260551253834703, 0.41790847293771854, 0.47376507250073746, 0.44625492156786695, 0.3665742104158703, 0.46239929772210925, 0.44039805540566207, 0.4473385695884163, 0.41904326359193766, 0.4782106643198007, 0.43099085878539034, 0.4595141391239318, 0.5079472946014302, 0.4035582725551801, 0.49665385808099777, 0.3644779560242052, 0.4652165601075734, 0.42884001042431774, 0.4110384555452049, 0.43924247151695794, 0.5531184205365902, 0.36375626291307794, 0.4448249078788689, 0.3952033064964951, 0.5357304983934386, 0.4226854013145511 ], "bias": [ 32.79878938687725, -3.77169062059658, 23.483555176678514, 5.247548673705141, -61.85609037033775, 18.77427336318282, 15.029501049430209, -2.3033659553752384, 12.148475704773043, 25.919148514768807, 0.02970044423895718, -23.148260250351985, 8.636495302067779, -4.224674177722174, 3.952526729414944, -21.374888078415587, 28.68422715288147, 32.700392538168735, -37.891044866123565, 6.453808524853072, -34.51435267286953, 0.9115969597172987, 6.101365172130762, 11.913498724757577, 3.540953708114564, -7.866840173238957, -36.66055669877951, 11.249433865195543, 10.378746574183115, 18.42978080462855, -60.570740651019065, -15.516789117079512 ], "mae": [ 34.339885020435595, 24.10528605387085, 24.882147135527102, 17.328630659080673, 64.82527462600075, 19.39078206179103, 16.517015156052416, 19.640928131576548, 14.503639421945588, 26.62081399030999, 14.294585755411944, 25.89681899663333, 17.851514174606145, 19.770235136870767, 18.852265014558228, 33.25812479962098, 29.11697316759782, 33.81712233087758, 46.3637242524903, 22.93090550570236, 38.93135914176669, 13.016692914711587, 18.16857336559527, 18.411593943514646, 13.404309181369232, 23.11413081999296, 38.295839220137495, 14.401377618879332, 19.1214009451849, 21.021687813635022, 65.3816869522324, 23.12608774000548 ], "mse": [ 1809.9983585302123, 1106.6169086812379, 1033.3638482045974, 502.6559889599288, 7724.341054644958, 633.9466364932138, 528.1961849799095, 642.1211278596759, 338.9400709460428, 1202.958909464556, 419.84678595818184, 1468.084789845763, 542.3871431409528, 932.5368871156771, 628.9591611883882, 1929.6167248805757, 1363.3821732212753, 2157.5390786184216, 4536.583690334259, 1052.5070211423742, 2877.1511502246876, 355.9168872764081, 615.8200266897311, 585.5978971102453, 317.13529204245003, 927.7786399808526, 2269.486575029618, 405.88283665929106, 699.499299189915, 776.8252152465357, 8064.399766018042, 1126.2601508623713 ], "var": [ 1989.4579357797552, 4055.412096392045, 1353.927568049913, 1233.6211463940924, 2887.2504328070195, 1512.8585106633213, 1447.255071517706, 959.8618481910964, 1395.1421674707067, 2433.51825140576, 1330.373835445394, 1621.3087098296226, 1720.9971279020515, 2250.5580226286593, 1810.0560658594432, 1402.945173681184, 2448.4954540827125, 1854.1069261489567, 1836.6487809555335, 2132.349742701696, 1912.2612837118754, 1613.8050090991358, 3258.7146693072227, 1255.3055403448454, 1740.1248151336285, 1244.7518256264007, 2717.3124808521543, 1553.0619534341909, 1175.227288750062, 1824.88742989397, 2458.3706394160154, 1142.3469900367581 ], "zero": [ 0.09780737745267765, 0.12252203851785945, 0.08403816846162077, 0.13366724131627608, 0.06674903842323084, 0.12569798924152498, 0.14458477737413286, 0.09975853480838831, 0.1341918117258341, 0.1112991090242703, 0.10486238557821666, 0.1274529012315633, 0.10188302753831166, 0.12547084468200792, 0.12069653452320406, 0.16774315106199095, 0.10749640116499645, 0.095306053430049, 0.13242517617831653, 0.12375076844720391, 0.10687146020793155, 0.10847182875955944, 0.06831714023648397, 0.10261169682069153, 0.12670203272508973, 0.16746225101182424, 0.09629532683456929, 0.15166955571565977, 0.15363668532813485, 0.1281363987234508, 0.07963529451095022, 0.16565162842711983 ] }, "crps": 17.79758837373835, "crpss": 0.09208032943417888, "rps": 0.44291016111921866, "rpss": 0.02047001862484621, "mean_bias_mm": -1.0411086019419158, "mean_mae_mm": 25.959419095249533, "mean_rmse_mm": 39.360646701583626, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0961879491199173, "zero_fraction": 0.11821451967134816, "correlation": 0.3002344869485855, "pit_histogram": [ 0.0639, 0.07459, 0.08722, 0.09987, 0.10962, 0.11381, 0.12125, 0.11281, 0.11153, 0.10541 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.14885071011419998 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 28.20238434695256, 29.706561004318424, 15.698218760969718, 9.329131649406158, 85.94747309579857, 11.920145799581414, 7.99905684857436, 10.878643968995203, 9.51984056555816, 14.44573172281736, 14.749957446963895, 37.65573377903947, 11.1090467091021, 27.556417135712344, 18.090842536392945, 19.944184526141555, 16.693183745702125, 30.61185427760937, 62.11403172443153, 15.4885152588393, 53.4616190314706, 13.184471257203104, 17.08499611625856, 10.852181457735648, 17.100256261682674, 10.166552706550641, 35.54693706111569, 13.287853004435808, 11.81223676789292, 15.945072216036056, 84.7008812335829, 18.008744940804085 ], "crps_clim": [ 18.971560801065813, 35.6367147291537, 18.636916636476265, 13.008245857985397, 122.09582939281907, 17.78179646878491, 17.998112084481825, 13.076782675945864, 14.529083489713967, 13.24418302159305, 14.803193391112085, 34.07821828870073, 14.676722636955915, 29.418403592206143, 16.790159921611743, 19.251560181834897, 13.33628914107295, 23.960236587257803, 65.78672153414695, 11.854513425492197, 53.7131677313048, 13.396064979901809, 23.74020434353359, 12.389359531750223, 16.618238808520573, 13.04598803914388, 49.69954751558125, 12.770847456632547, 18.242786444806796, 16.533666942942173, 125.40466313928738, 15.824528080373357 ], "rps": [ 0.7801857869814407, 0.3735328745170131, 0.41781948116986556, 0.33514056001584425, 0.2120784266265724, 0.3467698723125207, 0.23992391447889114, 0.37443102770937925, 0.3021002502879995, 0.3889967212764927, 0.3572175968209824, 0.6332524046580272, 0.3491886500585738, 0.4340818286622882, 0.4628771913041127, 0.47176585491933326, 0.513499172603843, 0.6981378591351887, 0.4984861042707653, 0.38598353334798247, 0.5266544183810412, 0.350722325092332, 0.2442125830355897, 0.3896889472707625, 0.42736258631597646, 0.3099373999712469, 0.2889358724940043, 0.3841861298192383, 0.354398934294837, 0.44278315525831957, 0.15672388317165623, 0.48888841855770504 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.546221849426887, 0.5006209898385597, 0.47463997727575263, 0.41815000367394756, 0.5629552549427683, 0.49498688948174796, 0.477643485597547, 0.3820838914918218, 0.4675924281943521, 0.34140859723145817, 0.32837245319421293, 0.5374315918996531, 0.42791161191971255, 0.478997744827492, 0.3859727031231156, 0.43079003405987637, 0.4091224667534369, 0.5629552549427682, 0.5473749777298041, 0.31762780372493987, 0.5567250638845919, 0.3314668314118201, 0.5013535927665776, 0.3938931012781259, 0.4005237610004716, 0.37374789498522504, 0.5536094138716743, 0.347079043610374, 0.5202270950400264, 0.4553182914080023, 0.5617070387526095, 0.38432907468585364 ], "bias": [ 54.90369703776644, -13.87213173944766, 31.77327117788233, 14.27008670580392, -106.82041789169777, 27.580983027714407, 20.628238010070575, 11.138048522946256, 17.02344435237844, 31.808078808021097, -6.605626775177859, -44.55486587547161, 18.27503734568528, -18.782175931411444, -6.240683683601367, -11.460863695998313, 40.36360227270801, 55.5789213798956, -76.03522447634893, 29.174138989640863, -65.22150175865708, 3.2741862667387713, 17.428288670443624, 17.64547183191924, -5.387684882639433, 16.298841779131873, -35.88365569500141, 22.506544953753025, 27.682545756928228, 32.64035498086571, -102.86043056421607, -7.485634521419146 ], "mae": [ 54.90369703776644, 34.37397430717382, 33.95014711950801, 18.012853907422983, 106.83285098856993, 28.193853246707956, 21.315542334193502, 19.351801028649778, 21.41120581574996, 32.08759574189996, 17.78740447627516, 45.069957019778, 22.03162564693508, 31.790221076002474, 20.289259839183337, 26.733379942297727, 40.36360227270801, 55.5789213798956, 76.89854088692398, 29.86542618565794, 65.3170791708851, 15.606578335041773, 22.898257705218168, 21.52197618488999, 17.380339085249997, 18.658810243885277, 39.184304043994004, 23.4201790526959, 27.942878612460465, 33.4493430147362, 105.54089380971382, 22.523162541102863 ], "mse": [ 3361.4222367209013, 1913.496630255894, 1537.4080786572308, 436.4399824524777, 14075.785543630065, 964.279016451236, 625.9900094166363, 522.762743603199, 579.8938078951019, 1417.259207562154, 645.0342946995053, 2967.3490891229494, 647.8479629188845, 1952.2678733141709, 676.9268466797614, 1442.7357125168212, 1894.3169903188211, 4044.9369935343193, 9399.91664181701, 1354.495950636467, 5522.89446525629, 400.6114528622898, 818.3658410398937, 591.9118520978101, 503.08643284672104, 457.2052491046925, 2341.358913652648, 777.6640606120591, 973.6520570920978, 1494.2284042988238, 15257.348174529017, 1001.45867521343 ], "var": [ 3219.5806679459624, 6305.596509494058, 2220.768860861305, 1902.8232480348856, 5218.0492539488005, 2307.0226019158727, 2480.6663411843874, 1479.7296817442905, 2261.3462419560565, 3939.116629051772, 2084.7930854168903, 2609.8509276187833, 2507.4738617315456, 3992.8482661554676, 2919.1005056012395, 2482.483527138539, 4183.228233950783, 2777.8644030121227, 2944.508381447634, 3512.5598012091536, 3159.701883508204, 2798.5406606018923, 6533.809202997288, 1980.4178686570895, 2967.213398710698, 2113.104801811198, 5343.63511128256, 2700.2210755407405, 1979.717217235583, 2904.8993623370397, 4340.099387196394, 2004.653333823679 ], "zero": [ 0.06790860085513362, 0.07472036643179183, 0.06486045467153921, 0.11363120962593215, 0.06320296660097299, 0.0751902333692324, 0.09268305471156678, 0.06271377967696884, 0.10245720816296557, 0.07158116457006883, 0.07931072886091896, 0.08047748302294311, 0.06839756855384466, 0.06445080975816396, 0.11088668188860536, 0.12444258708070051, 0.07175778971029208, 0.05792375864382501, 0.0941948559253937, 0.07304484199689285, 0.11340348092728729, 0.07389562122361146, 0.05876602984628388, 0.05744552778204005, 0.10094302923023758, 0.10999453275763195, 0.06427700005798762, 0.09228087597464794, 0.09809322475635293, 0.090598622915629, 0.05985896371363976, 0.12189188738158374 ] }, "crps": 24.33789865492735, "crpss": 0.1349545919542552, "rps": 0.40437386765061956, "rpss": 0.10591400338488799, "mean_bias_mm": -0.35053486314982596, "mean_mae_mm": 35.94642693916167, "mean_rmse_mm": 50.187259087469535, "spread_error_ratio": 1.114838936447353, "zero_fraction": 0.08297765439639641, "correlation": 0.5236211741851664, "pit_histogram": [ 0.08021, 0.0748, 0.09189, 0.10561, 0.11634, 0.11214, 0.12067, 0.11011, 0.11274, 0.07549 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.1552388855748147 } }, "distribution_full": { "ethiopia": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9900000327066223, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.07048159920740232 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0204135404068877, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.044922434378408475 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.6810820707000618, "area_mean_abs_log": 5.590318921796326 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9744299635101615, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.3154880189971999 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0135411692083547, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.08892136115715092 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.06450980392156858, "area_mean": 0.11105718871382261 } }, "ondj_domain": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9978831694830552, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.01750991939965849 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 0.996159668048435, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.030530788623370834 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.8635895789125937, "area_mean_abs_log": 2.9337966393112644 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0169704179662096, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.11026573256835741 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0322378215934578, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.07959504416029806 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.015539215686274506, "area_mean": 0.0671655546747896 } } } }, "cdft": { "training": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 18.389980676803813, 19.580489470209812, 12.038373447842124, 10.410929144460377, 54.309934191490214, 8.446254130868455, 7.244720078398359, 13.689395731400756, 6.811496442184409, 12.539757108844109, 10.66227152103215, 22.34171497644031, 10.931650508734949, 15.551662269928226, 14.276458785446504, 26.82613481162867, 13.252456921283146, 18.830989649129098, 36.94729351527852, 15.179051354776144, 32.96255367685326, 10.213740979163015, 13.327345351465242, 10.13982637502887 ], "crps_clim": [ 12.317536543467577, 23.35796459817729, 12.697045070793552, 12.202051839195779, 80.47285365334993, 11.548375983365016, 12.678451972317543, 13.236171134630228, 9.77344956703739, 11.308094418769002, 10.495885058363076, 19.78743863254775, 11.56945900909618, 16.417052730597515, 12.717960992194332, 23.466029141135742, 10.74931047318028, 14.20169205564696, 38.727205395504946, 14.581796635287228, 32.862113763760696, 10.161605103260042, 18.582117729180727, 10.941519369614019 ], "rps": [ 0.7493665180341299, 0.36064163222637, 0.5607571474607415, 0.38897418194315775, 0.16108477069824081, 0.3563271504265479, 0.3059108031063656, 0.49149594317796375, 0.3249664383412724, 0.5047232333639449, 0.39436304294301605, 0.5587708594520371, 0.46103648359195976, 0.411780455886229, 0.5121417514610377, 0.65724092335201, 0.5008012572152103, 0.6114174155205064, 0.4518977889405107, 0.4051220781193386, 0.5125391333527727, 0.3738600619036874, 0.26014552547044234, 0.4556838914568022 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.503268882341884, 0.45696255193683133, 0.4925766326091148, 0.42240641708616883, 0.5420235822074022, 0.4714149775295732, 0.455605992500462, 0.4281783876000402, 0.46522974758146945, 0.45001555732494986, 0.3793571949725829, 0.4624359120204484, 0.4373678925332641, 0.4400525449202173, 0.42589693023153363, 0.47068205353537346, 0.4255615214855194, 0.4516170482691049, 0.49843663106201835, 0.41189108424683096, 0.4992305010159512, 0.3787617113337185, 0.4739156168036444, 0.434610826319066 ], "bias": [ 30.8664634819014, -8.346738051510536, 21.6593880906506, 3.285186245203459, -64.75794574231725, 16.475103997188196, 13.519914034825382, -4.374759850956604, 10.284847253391982, 24.32085241035285, -2.2563545663296103, -25.927639010927464, 6.32669999952534, -7.5211811279138265, 1.7200763374424437, -24.02628459824082, 27.02551372259831, 30.61437053897874, -41.249477146255074, 3.1248990813584205, -37.28266065240438, -1.0897855585821923, 2.561285176233474, 10.453339284903642 ], "mae": [ 33.36626972271039, 26.1699507338809, 23.23680962880135, 15.380507456195993, 69.58629421892898, 17.543316770562136, 15.3261818015066, 18.464954189389083, 13.320817356877432, 25.503624942577094, 15.338856072361388, 28.31130817026018, 16.00378375733175, 21.0641482094051, 19.802917322106794, 32.925699333944266, 27.170941620527255, 32.337892806028165, 47.13347426917069, 23.047862314945466, 42.68338030298925, 13.627096650044466, 17.87662666926628, 16.731253443898016 ], "mse": [ 1707.6001132503536, 1362.2585141591971, 882.0655899246675, 404.90557465381335, 8432.479427602691, 517.4248115027781, 451.2270250255263, 576.117100898949, 276.46709458511054, 1108.825746077908, 498.396348887667, 1687.1963910489371, 428.81166308197044, 1051.3579302849805, 677.8316543382834, 1939.5970970653952, 1187.331829514802, 2009.1646936522977, 4759.98925964505, 1133.537845795719, 3304.3575568980655, 430.00226674654505, 580.3859456926103, 473.3346078359785 ], "var": [ 1458.0456429962624, 2901.0936738073156, 1009.5181547973581, 906.8477414311701, 1836.0100327730663, 1110.9713935578604, 1114.3832178999494, 673.7059846896796, 1041.5153678485071, 1801.776252158818, 965.9797971679399, 1151.2928151355168, 1267.185606422324, 1522.5625401682287, 1336.7057019631832, 1042.9906170687043, 1762.23229509532, 1394.73235630672, 1320.1414934025206, 1548.5693451514533, 1345.0006869373124, 1210.7127872303822, 2263.84258754025, 928.4631398128446 ], "zero": [ 0.0034762920160705353, 0.0015924766277109373, 0.00021558177533486227, 0.0071064769434840466, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003823613475730956, 0.0, 0.003862834066936037, 0.0007200960212937101, 0.003541257779589433, 0.0007200960212937101, 0.0031578197458087187, 0.0007200960212937101, 0.004861452449431477, 0.01094356576426226, 0.0024775863713452292, 0.0, 0.006171232191020453, 0.0, 0.0073252158684820445, 0.0, 0.0007200960212937101, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 17.287686713278774, "crpss": 0.06732266068813908, "rps": 0.44879368697684563, "rpss": 0.009786413062779054, "mean_bias_mm": -0.6081202771201474, "mean_mae_mm": 25.498081990154542, "mean_rmse_mm": 38.665588753744856, "spread_error_ratio": 0.9577715363316207, "zero_fraction": 0.002559824548349243, "correlation": 0.23865258624129004, "pit_histogram": [ 0.16185, 0.0522, 0.06919, 0.08766, 0.1025, 0.11596, 0.10951, 0.0982, 0.10342, 0.0995 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.18650827922943647 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 29.035104795600528, 30.543618522266357, 15.901356148631237, 9.432784781663033, 88.3190594393025, 12.028462731343671, 8.292380106883476, 10.564030485169157, 9.634019167328717, 15.167679444636072, 14.661833663551777, 38.5392324189867, 11.018895861657118, 27.7352274633331, 18.603142255261695, 20.01479673805387, 17.309444316316146, 31.46538878087371, 64.54355919079232, 14.873120290839683, 54.92668582214027, 13.130612126971647, 16.39771445118092, 10.726865646741144 ], "crps_clim": [ 18.52395116853421, 36.87672256900793, 18.170789562622396, 12.289909839909377, 126.90605491615098, 17.41989047035546, 17.706970523055745, 12.351304505468207, 13.796387526958524, 13.076262007562349, 14.560429422573055, 34.92849143385597, 13.963924627676032, 30.04724509587627, 16.82171605773241, 18.528924529932958, 12.89918086433115, 23.58960486668408, 67.53597007272384, 11.371976284610398, 55.90409404224628, 13.21381402559538, 23.974094843997456, 11.63096415863434 ], "rps": [ 0.8453379706927573, 0.3601632447327164, 0.42896722536675813, 0.3397335569587323, 0.17737810644080165, 0.3363543967255793, 0.24367654890680765, 0.36329303299254906, 0.31844086850644, 0.3873967668335123, 0.34818228571066906, 0.6244986366097013, 0.3427734306871565, 0.4091032933368324, 0.4828413292910306, 0.48784474506732683, 0.5243379073489053, 0.7678508061385944, 0.47763739567576047, 0.36903508219942904, 0.5070352112930563, 0.3391233518465475, 0.21568806052777484, 0.4369661518601064 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5345788969238703, 0.4969529963190181, 0.4649874789243917, 0.41318634740760435, 0.546313799621928, 0.4766642051904933, 0.47169819738486596, 0.3818166848915748, 0.4706484126244913, 0.36582560440255596, 0.35459642943677694, 0.5238068939647562, 0.42423555831428944, 0.4745855744751957, 0.4052259209726985, 0.43061974360983973, 0.4027224211940853, 0.5463137996219276, 0.5329121077567514, 0.33515957321525397, 0.5425588509144538, 0.35778764325037954, 0.505082202846066, 0.40346036499799176 ], "bias": [ 52.143759595992634, -20.386391892726987, 29.815057505018157, 11.687074861325879, -112.58263023789483, 24.84192853866861, 19.48715373106307, 9.043028368408688, 14.93851897166406, 30.037469812647842, -9.311979766358057, -48.307849332615284, 16.047724696322394, -23.808226252227353, -9.624803097232146, -14.587560396826353, 37.48316215518546, 53.67932716136717, -80.96682386564558, 24.879565380597935, -69.50745684760557, 0.6289246531131775, 10.992986393560159, 15.80498357898405 ], "mae": [ 52.143759595992634, 38.547741372888936, 31.74115935929155, 16.206342938284706, 112.58263023789483, 25.694241787657262, 20.183712231216777, 17.518523285309666, 19.804440003433058, 30.47881811495734, 18.604386783633338, 48.723955602730314, 19.79436124518355, 34.072002903810784, 20.936238231887057, 26.75019039826867, 37.48316215518546, 53.67932716136717, 81.19205059408921, 26.172511931296047, 69.55753009228977, 15.87164067362499, 19.74367044166762, 19.941056947804295 ], "mse": [ 3156.2094323753045, 2385.95688160667, 1391.1514620973635, 358.6324055290764, 15311.542964832597, 826.5830329112543, 573.4179810671459, 441.6776291710767, 490.7799697552701, 1385.5413213934985, 740.051436101844, 3297.777980289546, 530.2659837854717, 2180.665999959879, 743.8455784822136, 1471.0436347760287, 1724.9074706713157, 3922.3317178680286, 10030.481475407712, 1112.466158405946, 6127.115888857398, 443.6509186971703, 644.130292351213, 513.206741758326 ], "var": [ 2270.0470238859225, 4328.159363252109, 1678.427213127073, 1377.018047216295, 3108.8418321318413, 1641.002108095847, 1923.4299827893485, 1029.4654622726325, 1672.0258807889877, 2864.2995899153857, 1468.472911704548, 1810.8545208104063, 1786.1691557267895, 2606.1593174814284, 2104.612278128041, 1834.9066290011824, 2893.5750953785723, 2040.3489908967306, 2052.834637501024, 2537.97045686749, 2099.6774024168285, 2116.3293304281974, 4408.453869433584, 1348.4105609473418 ], "zero": [ 0.006238478113640434, 0.0031154100738136972, 0.0, 0.016424820117919098, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006506759279033893, 0.0, 0.009144581637799548, 0.0, 0.009080613179761825, 0.0, 0.006576131675676751, 0.0, 0.012465901081680351, 0.02495063060137083, 0.004301604019195079, 0.0, 0.011854388615984824, 0.0, 0.01705486591260976, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 24.286042277063533, "crpss": 0.08367333202261562, "rps": 0.42223580857289766, "rpss": 0.0670316470535518, "mean_bias_mm": -1.565544011883872, "mean_mae_mm": 35.725977253740204, "mean_rmse_mm": 49.918030459173494, "spread_error_ratio": 0.9414147178084799, "zero_fraction": 0.00532142434618692, "correlation": 0.3180524394868773, "pit_histogram": [ 0.16377, 0.05517, 0.07388, 0.08874, 0.10124, 0.11124, 0.11213, 0.09618, 0.10635, 0.0913 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.18947120156357464 } }, "operational": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 10.089170534402049, 17.21272730906448, 32.368159859708854, 8.678097111127688, 10.518624254173943, 10.381509644471782, 53.16400332915364, 19.34998706980764 ], "crps_clim": [ 9.895516071070114, 14.17903530722128, 38.54879256346864, 8.382690795432643, 12.100478712529222, 9.990734718607943, 72.45749800359884, 14.992025314000559 ], "rps": [ 0.38815293713621896, 0.6252624599886261, 0.4194029434206562, 0.3596779959035279, 0.4182119738846823, 0.3993254282439466, 0.29181353439113544, 0.6618293081324323 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.39574475776394596, 0.4437047305666722, 0.546311199561453, 0.36237075360897236, 0.43798495130070614, 0.3932407178861523, 0.5285945268864339, 0.42293901304422793 ], "bias": [ 1.7390864314966774, -9.53325346865166, -37.742237292887566, 8.837447573418109, 8.637083490654797, 15.541398315202699, -60.65435438649189, -16.912476884417867 ], "mae": [ 13.151954145267958, 22.406945992583182, 39.662620101179535, 13.092178521788142, 18.815197454958838, 19.07529340304772, 66.43823873828958, 23.888741676639018 ], "mse": [ 314.98725243553974, 931.5192543132911, 2437.689072864491, 351.36822171873, 691.0083167392986, 659.0895197482091, 8276.484737545896, 1240.1004558703519 ], "var": [ 1378.9095520675967, 1003.4159141423021, 2118.74673211851, 1204.0534176404992, 1008.6748874416646, 1502.2907086402477, 2214.766891973036, 917.2560287229437 ], "zero": [ 0.0008516556456447386, 0.007113332141405141, 0.0, 0.0027420137829251576, 0.008357116796484336, 0.003810172389935444, 0.0007321251451759389, 0.008470727161145806 ] }, "crps": 20.220284888988758, "crpss": 0.1040422502126167, "rps": 0.44545957263765323, "rpss": -0.009285456199817022, "mean_bias_mm": -11.260913277709587, "mean_mae_mm": 27.066396254219246, "mean_rmse_mm": 43.15994501739403, "spread_error_ratio": 0.8726417179859116, "zero_fraction": 0.00400964288283957, "correlation": 0.5073797399952377, "pit_histogram": [ 0.02898, 0.03328, 0.06441, 0.0903, 0.10846, 0.12107, 0.12635, 0.1139, 0.12626, 0.18698 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.36605122592492023 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 16.781272415348017, 9.789122872568546, 34.71303853638812, 12.895225497467113, 11.307734625786333, 15.348367339231865, 84.40148367583997, 18.081618519224136 ], "crps_clim": [ 16.023613765163336, 12.042589782487557, 48.89791233340558, 12.005332284732548, 16.60873516709748, 15.463955391266797, 122.93071411734311, 15.359489400606916 ], "rps": [ 0.4222744820029068, 0.31388977836338805, 0.27920284667466133, 0.38644939582018467, 0.35082056022819014, 0.4349685213035139, 0.15066747755240806, 0.48843920393458234 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4012574985052145, 0.3824738866553415, 0.5455702609428927, 0.3608387586327424, 0.5032563034561837, 0.45825636877918047, 0.5532043323522959, 0.38836007080680135 ], "bias": [ -7.516421468050662, 13.23998487549314, -38.235642127168525, 18.971099418850375, 25.443893445651558, 29.29430052671837, -102.38719886598905, -9.293443331618876 ], "mae": [ 17.807310621835825, 15.99002377473183, 41.951269136297164, 20.77704394984603, 25.937779123262246, 30.965694965270995, 105.69023118279054, 23.045417778084705 ], "mse": [ 540.0380542984611, 348.7398042635674, 2612.990442996488, 649.8451561914509, 871.0929662607117, 1330.3225980404845, 15311.350282073843, 1041.9756373232 ], "var": [ 2349.950265196969, 1665.7716813658, 4016.6463500473496, 2044.3823385237527, 1665.874783529082, 2393.510351255239, 3900.6431040098114, 1593.840730155771 ], "zero": [ 0.00037358718414287986, 0.014506996844049866, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013723790818987246, 0.007464231273195512, 0.0, 0.02117858807646811 ] }, "crps": 25.41473293523176, "crpss": 0.21599495950241387, "rps": 0.3533390332349794, "rpss": 0.21332001708478465, "mean_bias_mm": -8.810428440764209, "mean_mae_mm": 35.27059631651491, "mean_rmse_mm": 53.27564516438093, "spread_error_ratio": 0.9298080301160873, "zero_fraction": 0.0071558992746054515, "correlation": 0.8650374543507644, "pit_histogram": [ 0.02167, 0.0625, 0.10568, 0.11065, 0.11174, 0.12039, 0.14974, 0.11857, 0.10102, 0.09804 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.23556973274280965 } }, "full": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 19.108866631844773, 19.044427682542388, 13.165112957549225, 10.48947486750502, 50.92776259099621, 8.84877997095686, 7.696193589338039, 13.62305429858013, 7.16437668630936, 13.169268527182043, 10.621073330725414, 21.183884442629548, 11.168623340454854, 15.285149754346369, 14.492877665064551, 26.499780120272845, 14.386724630458172, 19.40329881500222, 36.0030000940835, 14.057023017175844, 31.107228206461027, 9.721709717266432, 12.941546374375545, 10.876525107689083, 10.541861958001299, 16.717015789242417, 31.279566025403255, 8.909508503713782, 10.364220713116392, 11.05994639643065, 52.28007356049209, 18.50061358313424 ], "crps_clim": [ 12.783782020353424, 22.511377726630435, 13.486233432588588, 12.69944443375219, 76.94122015896143, 12.20106868173247, 13.309810711893718, 13.382499762169186, 10.510860190270792, 11.948508158258385, 10.507324363236147, 19.219499581536, 12.15624842534919, 16.33110258238101, 12.70802225555305, 23.51737823123135, 11.65595466198018, 14.642515311603015, 37.809037033490284, 13.847526321731513, 31.179523394808456, 10.189531034239177, 17.927950590511536, 11.88010054552358, 10.658915041984727, 14.411604379011287, 38.49497020875638, 9.149304055972436, 12.957927427879538, 10.730182113419154, 72.85260912174846, 14.681246973704665 ], "rps": [ 0.7672729248572481, 0.34827851612793903, 0.5912772213293057, 0.38554047786395007, 0.1492490654714654, 0.38075487493700977, 0.31783368194222494, 0.48361547394186377, 0.3361156912546404, 0.5205169663151769, 0.4121885822378037, 0.5298610115001716, 0.4616307654208071, 0.4150624779150802, 0.5293421566262193, 0.6437873592612439, 0.5292174262935271, 0.6305717713152189, 0.44639551980737524, 0.39573758964649286, 0.5042869418030427, 0.37047623382721967, 0.2519575291736599, 0.4433741461375968, 0.3993416723589462, 0.5957613045258768, 0.38193884609368794, 0.34698897902024023, 0.39104827580162854, 0.4085628278120887, 0.27640341453756967, 0.6450113104936988 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5099729077980537, 0.45223457520613386, 0.5042070796721, 0.4223319286224781, 0.5541349166685237, 0.4891341241458317, 0.46260551253834703, 0.41790847293771854, 0.47376507250073746, 0.44625492156786695, 0.3665742104158703, 0.46239929772210925, 0.44039805540566207, 0.4473385695884163, 0.41904326359193766, 0.4782106643198007, 0.43099085878539034, 0.4595141391239318, 0.5079472946014302, 0.4035582725551801, 0.49665385808099777, 0.3644779560242052, 0.4652165601075734, 0.42884001042431774, 0.4110384555452049, 0.43924247151695794, 0.5531184205365902, 0.36375626291307794, 0.4448249078788689, 0.3952033064964951, 0.5357304983934386, 0.4226854013145511 ], "bias": [ 33.354608336978686, -4.49773504192779, 24.068954498364313, 5.673057997941991, -59.17670912249952, 18.56016630596607, 15.509630920573057, -1.9216309199707533, 12.31986153849832, 26.596087786202293, 0.48874734351846916, -23.44540157172957, 8.296556718390384, -4.833580668871073, 4.592033113703721, -21.8084818810979, 29.701832456539996, 33.09373390122722, -37.97148644033452, 5.93165393245677, -34.137677665134056, 1.2241098531261738, 6.512341613098699, 12.59472764747173, 3.9549933581041605, -8.02174917482148, -36.424377796321835, 11.20147782918107, 10.548646971212452, 18.82074682247017, -59.42160995287983, -15.695989249278455 ], "mae": [ 34.94680260094916, 25.743010766361472, 25.470859034965045, 16.189709044327092, 65.65043704675053, 19.195642954523642, 16.799084396860245, 18.80806202616038, 14.821296226980978, 27.290527907204527, 15.778125839095312, 26.68799614105777, 17.15106343879555, 20.926380813520964, 20.431149262158062, 33.04480603107895, 29.776092218292167, 34.10451917955876, 46.476948266344955, 22.12602968523645, 40.70217965263812, 13.483585177284118, 18.362528843833832, 18.34795164834059, 14.453256586115092, 22.319793839112315, 38.036039089987966, 14.201126105900853, 19.056508561154896, 21.19371230370328, 65.65337789406654, 22.976476216045018 ], "mse": [ 1791.3490631403179, 1238.186249428291, 1020.3241003029042, 436.1053604048455, 7779.189313001534, 594.0022783062896, 516.3162005322379, 601.9608886933516, 326.98455189165514, 1223.7482809191474, 479.79001149897994, 1551.7112315181923, 500.91547003882397, 982.1806446038606, 710.1513468824681, 1927.0846291715745, 1366.3070925638428, 2072.8370122002752, 4639.829180173253, 1013.389267596656, 3030.974923600965, 366.02976616529287, 601.7253737640759, 576.4569808900835, 347.2422374124791, 894.6550305266113, 2260.503715869212, 376.8654140098314, 690.2201166127563, 746.1116323124978, 8100.250327446942, 1134.6233424195343 ], "var": [ 1555.5574692197704, 3177.813252195481, 1098.079051415806, 989.4491665871195, 2161.8740849263145, 1207.3513806551466, 1191.9863160060595, 735.5809655004236, 1135.1620971671296, 1928.6364201865067, 1045.2628477403125, 1272.2805086393134, 1345.622532074371, 1661.9452874749034, 1465.0285602101878, 1103.8079147926521, 1953.6585605635944, 1504.6987085261383, 1457.3945271381913, 1685.7105215451863, 1502.6152547782722, 1280.3161195528005, 2426.514262430635, 1001.0508886186852, 1525.6935120982157, 1092.3088059502, 2157.3460323140694, 1324.4180059250518, 1052.9231673534866, 1627.2835320451534, 2076.325490646162, 993.8227832335727 ], "zero": [ 0.0033146493590145744, 0.0014845402986913478, 0.00024252949725172003, 0.006836173348658986, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0037703944665889748, 0.0, 0.003835557961993495, 0.0006667527677222149, 0.003351771913077433, 0.0006667527677222149, 0.0030498849586954794, 0.0006667527677222149, 0.004321333319504455, 0.01026781100225636, 0.002181536936673254, 0.0, 0.005337289333245722, 0.0, 0.006947113890070737, 0.0, 0.0006667527677222149, 0.0, 0.0003809179475931841, 0.006769283989655153, 0.0, 0.002374379132758322, 0.007433548022316078, 0.0036646876839767197, 0.000719044625195756, 0.007900937219654276 ] }, "crps": 17.832455279635738, "crpss": 0.09030164183610412, "rps": 0.4465437823640631, "rpss": 0.012433984993798441, "mean_bias_mm": -0.759764391870033, "mean_mae_mm": 26.256408712450146, "mean_rmse_mm": 39.48813945109768, "spread_error_ratio": 0.9781112561518306, "zero_fraction": 0.002714074874305028, "correlation": 0.3023589897766013, "pit_histogram": [ 0.15029, 0.05513, 0.07345, 0.09388, 0.10315, 0.10834, 0.11182, 0.10199, 0.10243, 0.09952 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.15603719949635467 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 29.26699970085275, 29.375265562079175, 16.1206001966493, 9.518762462789113, 84.7934401872215, 11.863148595692, 8.309013709432676, 11.050193542117947, 9.771757753161713, 14.686118326180294, 14.45090376561489, 37.426034828803346, 11.203771306181622, 26.9424416365375, 18.303922004023008, 20.325125306898208, 17.359789444701953, 31.16492287630417, 63.05588736270776, 14.996423447810042, 53.09261916408354, 12.800171178842918, 16.275827442047703, 11.065011614089254, 17.169657032689777, 10.158582716976735, 34.669708286801004, 13.044209886847286, 11.946066968809024, 15.785893380478521, 85.4351675792139, 18.091985852712654 ], "crps_clim": [ 18.971560801065813, 35.6367147291537, 18.636916636476265, 13.008245857985397, 122.09582939281907, 17.78179646878491, 17.998112084481825, 13.076782675945864, 14.529083489713967, 13.24418302159305, 14.803193391112085, 34.07821828870073, 14.676722636955915, 29.418403592206143, 16.790159921611743, 19.251560181834897, 13.33628914107295, 23.960236587257803, 65.78672153414695, 11.854513425492197, 53.7131677313048, 13.396064979901809, 23.74020434353359, 12.389359531750223, 16.618238808520573, 13.04598803914388, 49.69954751558125, 12.770847456632547, 18.242786444806796, 16.533666942942173, 125.40466313928738, 15.824528080373357 ], "rps": [ 0.8433725863554248, 0.3495492050252262, 0.44547852508518143, 0.3414692487674241, 0.17808771278847826, 0.35562219665016115, 0.2496046613920361, 0.39498505973936837, 0.3129995940539568, 0.3642430391530802, 0.33821828157544387, 0.6186609351906343, 0.3508385113506537, 0.40610815315514265, 0.46829984331282487, 0.4866413256905416, 0.5402990426440739, 0.7615044406390621, 0.4827285765306183, 0.3654541619768398, 0.51909161278568, 0.3277997869645635, 0.21840799450176696, 0.4306950769288475, 0.42578481225748427, 0.30975577897882733, 0.2605592603734533, 0.36515694063656573, 0.36039057029849214, 0.4261941744399343, 0.13617710690186513, 0.48223306811423655 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.546221849426887, 0.5006209898385597, 0.47463997727575263, 0.41815000367394756, 0.5629552549427683, 0.49498688948174796, 0.477643485597547, 0.3820838914918218, 0.4675924281943521, 0.34140859723145817, 0.32837245319421293, 0.5374315918996531, 0.42791161191971255, 0.478997744827492, 0.3859727031231156, 0.43079003405987637, 0.4091224667534369, 0.5629552549427682, 0.5473749777298041, 0.31762780372493987, 0.5567250638845919, 0.3314668314118201, 0.5013535927665776, 0.3938931012781259, 0.4005237610004716, 0.37374789498522504, 0.5536094138716743, 0.347079043610374, 0.5202270950400264, 0.4553182914080023, 0.5617070387526095, 0.38432907468585364 ], "bias": [ 53.108415625300424, -18.124880007517845, 30.660983909952662, 12.476951147948094, -108.69597801223894, 25.467229661903705, 20.190749303879386, 10.024619982038129, 15.704794986643229, 30.868745943080018, -8.24290546879409, -46.457496582690695, 16.67587454437324, -21.67782064565591, -8.583758009531152, -13.656775607583654, 39.06092093363089, 53.92093918114005, -78.77028177574648, 26.22045651363146, -67.64568904485489, 1.7814884482380176, 13.78985617399044, 16.8221700550043, -6.532709387039946, 14.801628151503488, -37.93044831272793, 20.794326942735317, 26.9978033352069, 31.364837348589038, -104.05788465473196, -8.709402306111238 ], "mae": [ 53.108415625300424, 35.95098878860261, 32.89780348688772, 16.953160652526925, 108.69597801223894, 26.224306399245624, 20.933823841644795, 18.691279156401755, 20.56474719276767, 31.170146948587266, 18.5246832481456, 46.873386869329025, 20.676523209600035, 32.79827330644453, 20.293631900835486, 27.435692629733378, 39.06092093363089, 53.92093918114005, 79.29041609851, 27.25287929086754, 67.7061944366001, 15.629034089434253, 21.124375295388585, 20.821144051538486, 18.09369246823124, 17.499455675018584, 40.885271929343865, 21.92512619056075, 27.368177905418452, 32.42068577684891, 106.43107148826618, 22.748117819503705 ], "mse": [ 3191.392717931898, 2130.3262188550866, 1462.2338950047229, 385.0630369927419, 14411.313307047418, 837.4572082655118, 603.3865863881375, 501.129961595433, 525.3529846749053, 1386.9197001270531, 704.5465917408877, 3155.3659996657416, 570.9384804723371, 2031.6818520169038, 708.4037824420012, 1529.6205125055956, 1808.2361463250602, 3824.08742528086, 9809.256579141833, 1186.487277212206, 5827.775565668761, 409.2952714205167, 729.246149998393, 555.6030807429378, 537.3682293305744, 411.3983496990655, 2508.9217687479363, 690.3826619112912, 944.0577750578348, 1407.7442897491956, 15443.683717977206, 1014.1776490351001 ], "var": [ 2363.5453087019055, 4548.6462428731775, 1756.4468679693855, 1429.3150852602432, 3588.145815074836, 1720.5460414826468, 2002.5152544349187, 1082.8479604188688, 1763.753392407897, 2978.4070950461964, 1513.8166829830493, 1943.8414238577539, 1864.332975856541, 2817.6104826327205, 2224.590949967029, 1881.2754674755056, 3206.9791178017103, 2119.412033685077, 2240.685911714902, 2642.119526636932, 2273.142656705992, 2171.996273407323, 4661.40491815755, 1419.6207565065884, 2579.535275956761, 1809.5497519717742, 4095.2260325497864, 2215.8775168751463, 1706.8151327457963, 2483.930661741242, 3545.8194417708114, 1716.7104702504514 ], "zero": [ 0.005960773113933974, 0.0029769321461879713, 0.0, 0.015869994546150394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006645373935046152, 0.0, 0.009074639325364297, 0.0, 0.008594727100881982, 0.0, 0.006506805733977815, 0.0, 0.011080909308947718, 0.023494429473864455, 0.003815836202890727, 0.0, 0.010536069116998496, 0.0, 0.016223620073332664, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00037358718414287986, 0.01369108725586641, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012533603195041581, 0.0072608091657640405, 0.0, 0.019785305591796396 ] }, "crps": 24.35998197247973, "crpss": 0.1341696814443566, "rps": 0.403637852633059, "rpss": 0.10754136057372554, "mean_bias_mm": -2.1360386758261236, "mean_mae_mm": 35.74907324683104, "mean_rmse_mm": 50.38689523732372, "spread_error_ratio": 0.9695371079756685, "zero_fraction": 0.0054507657021933735, "correlation": 0.5158030221687777, "pit_histogram": [ 0.13658, 0.06095, 0.07971, 0.09696, 0.10409, 0.10654, 0.11873, 0.10811, 0.10878, 0.07956 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.16564293233892635 } }, "distribution_full": { "ethiopia": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9948454258035624, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.040708107303793366 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9773561688019547, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.12891752214492994 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.8681562599598737, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.3395978768237647 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0431731352393212, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.09205929208415888 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0286909261079418, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.08856227113811618 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": -0.004443256083220396 } }, "ondj_domain": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 0.955309721361346, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.04841654650873819 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 0.88204932888773, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.1452508014199051 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9488100638127807, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.36552207088034233 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0408318360689919, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.08178235099076409 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9874835246288288, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.08342278344602502 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": -0.010361334019413386 } } } } } }, "Dec": { "tag": "init09_Dec", "cells": 1484, "methods": { "raw": { "training": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 2.455564493122197, 4.322095351890393, 13.394031724607975, 3.0967606442390947, 12.613569308681292, 2.9233330264966435, 4.553983284242912, 6.533337856145365, 4.078339840534121, 22.862010187802245, 19.262032706350674, 5.655276511190706, 4.677658089455756, 27.609764635164588, 2.846554947599128, 3.096457519272455, 16.800443818546714, 5.49407336870066, 5.100353373915615, 7.279143998366871, 2.974028898868524, 2.9111218176414546, 8.426016764130265, 3.3893871499119554 ], "crps_clim": [ 3.069144896531585, 3.3858676721658623, 10.074246020518368, 2.773361990265274, 15.332066536235006, 3.604951743610606, 2.9367188887863067, 5.050819710999868, 3.0258348712866763, 21.012210746646392, 16.801010670653753, 3.7894449827302754, 4.194423053287697, 25.04733364035127, 3.8894382629868667, 3.276619104881488, 13.516550290161696, 3.1815721446141088, 3.8044427745910094, 3.8505600739044343, 3.8413777807512575, 3.029724174279054, 7.270640397516081, 3.55202677848655 ], "rps": [ 0.44370299549258685, 0.48429268082360494, 0.7067054976728987, 0.4779478420020877, 0.39325483798746363, 0.5267294113197758, 0.5473185302291789, 0.6652818460606046, 0.5419029306120564, 0.6114073023379372, 0.6505676679153286, 0.5802895171144947, 0.5675613828542738, 0.6281798925897323, 0.4334881095113247, 0.2895075709048529, 0.6449583697815233, 0.598342477920206, 0.43011804290739625, 0.6659418164514548, 0.4137424459155663, 0.48299971238535094, 0.5368732161263704, 0.45896655042317586 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4625629239522452, 0.36451731789334524, 0.44125991446339186, 0.36766510384083156, 0.4796288408201259, 0.5018388021804165, 0.38147740265907437, 0.45785739893807914, 0.37358783510004456, 0.5052606258044735, 0.5036552005735562, 0.4358799343390295, 0.5001476339830571, 0.5372757885017574, 0.4967176371371437, 0.4833984207814198, 0.48412488996957304, 0.42298688095193837, 0.47887418976886764, 0.4007717998366474, 0.49873748259985246, 0.40202165211061897, 0.4457035075298269, 0.452337281302436 ], "bias": [ 1.6562854567212217, -1.319665873808458, -13.557817217445423, -0.8732929791940992, -7.3430453880984965, 6.238109898942441, -3.4134760647215217, -4.75395032227814, -1.2119851713326752, -23.17386636899691, -20.70058900305539, -3.811075508858032, 10.364635654051272, -30.73367734367289, 5.309161276050553, -0.7230211254952332, -16.615758345247965, -4.740640136292079, -4.2762243165960525, -6.907669858401682, 5.861265827951624, 4.688684367758945, -4.968813276596072, 0.2400466996383363 ], "mae": [ 3.9496883706593238, 5.8166773600793, 15.560580286890655, 4.294229024670344, 17.63367730566322, 6.64607335560214, 5.331843599797946, 7.977386136790224, 5.1902458371308064, 27.135940464927206, 22.303890042409495, 7.552058070881228, 10.537205672179127, 31.34826782933113, 5.8493247592336655, 3.7392098442920076, 20.033709475669244, 6.532299383422144, 6.2587105782615255, 8.996461277869654, 6.260751133266366, 5.505567185948919, 11.67184275223136, 5.130594960753555 ], "mse": [ 40.13542439402984, 131.58767345341684, 1023.177353835777, 50.04450851306781, 1110.0592063052243, 80.60589226831891, 110.19795423753165, 165.84230900888411, 78.65690780862694, 2469.6496176769183, 827.0240434177148, 225.49484418800705, 243.11377998007887, 2322.4705643532775, 90.7311039585048, 55.58802179730945, 1525.206235220929, 165.83363047397106, 141.8917965597305, 328.0319910189077, 110.10013583378081, 63.656317622066446, 383.6682160378162, 58.350185745086506 ], "var": [ 108.33122734687619, 178.51802000688073, 164.88390940221296, 78.74508260543875, 464.2914636932163, 255.842887166515, 112.62310783720666, 190.68484377647624, 182.61630261086427, 347.70853658587185, 171.85443938518, 158.13038469006761, 394.76724643296416, 172.30042420877817, 202.51291263203703, 132.8323963384688, 236.2974799892026, 110.42981192494611, 104.5943546601394, 88.94703309836247, 238.48145629668923, 199.22349923345092, 268.3449306706627, 133.49471823706972 ], "zero": [ 0.06246143284184453, 0.05495944867910176, 0.07848287457412811, 0.05325719542746489, 0.030781569054674135, 0.027670857788747442, 0.14393882186909293, 0.0841961327231594, 0.07222490606557701, 0.031210639840147155, 0.05500002747991127, 0.04697989715557832, 0.032750238494727184, 0.040749665908579286, 0.06327580180741041, 0.12303434794022053, 0.050903315907059966, 0.10102514351700966, 0.08107857983883338, 0.07202398599044342, 0.04921821821739066, 0.039302649377388935, 0.035994084478899686, 0.05073366128847943 ] }, "crps": 8.014805804869901, "crpss": -0.13611068104501145, "rps": 0.5325033603058019, "rpss": -0.17482457726817535, "mean_bias_mm": -4.781932463290697, "mean_mae_mm": 10.469009779498357, "mean_rmse_mm": 22.17460795755378, "spread_error_ratio": 0.6308463279231049, "zero_fraction": 0.06171889567774456, "correlation": 0.15531812271497053, "pit_histogram": [ 0.03313, 0.04099, 0.06258, 0.07589, 0.09635, 0.12339, 0.13906, 0.14749, 0.13635, 0.14479 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.38215748708592634 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 2.2246765494472447, 4.773527094956737, 4.967981322879055, 2.484460216892419, 18.743878314095113, 3.1591822148934976, 5.363190742723596, 5.991948598932759, 3.7392552541993016, 32.04398452721952, 28.734119952453568, 4.7344132654827025, 4.630079098239121, 28.75785485343322, 2.68291939792636, 1.8847523163139273, 18.80337658156624, 3.878766486208194, 8.53409410421778, 8.24020739371487, 2.6354439108221444, 2.6632198919506544, 6.075518462829942, 4.072468241640901 ], "crps_clim": [ 3.134642569756797, 4.0368873592733205, 3.423335292543674, 3.3738802296500032, 27.106814106125587, 3.7253738930894196, 3.249450552047323, 4.035569151257637, 2.965809999169824, 30.070724508266622, 25.830159399346183, 3.580613889817456, 4.549159240055732, 25.77593644509466, 4.188541565312743, 3.9517287715065783, 14.718801138616833, 2.963090816144978, 5.6582471562161265, 4.848776670389135, 3.9672709222205658, 3.261152428150299, 5.930891894544658, 4.158239602390194 ], "rps": [ 0.535566176975786, 0.5029225446201953, 0.55080290109514, 0.43539107892102163, 0.17626905632169004, 0.7118700974948748, 0.5624446246011556, 0.6204554246367445, 0.5820683737786584, 0.5177580883711571, 0.6569866246614464, 0.5603002552304042, 0.6492504196611117, 0.5116054012312728, 0.5649377860460792, 0.2020009734167765, 0.5824125749130615, 0.41699852875299204, 0.6501729440239492, 0.5958954868067706, 0.4292924671206384, 0.5420153658244548, 0.44884470303144003, 0.5380637143844265 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4612583063145251, 0.36325581037926996, 0.3548837655357383, 0.3845191261452081, 0.5442138131835412, 0.47392048479376536, 0.3369486554725916, 0.41421918051654527, 0.37845219279141734, 0.4951720255695432, 0.5339101560355515, 0.4478677807232184, 0.5122698437472656, 0.5463196106078548, 0.5151171353423272, 0.5367285502205256, 0.4864254375606979, 0.45042529314649876, 0.45228609712142287, 0.40382417088714717, 0.4727414090541605, 0.43354624566717376, 0.435070354227705, 0.43462262504974214 ], "bias": [ 1.0940500970364844, -1.2143859933388839, -3.6941523595325148, 1.3615293196380256, -18.79404001952233, 8.057441603900385, -4.921305445489289, -4.9201929693375135, -0.906538360758367, -33.271378105913485, -32.38954420436195, -2.391873462798497, 11.563841294249787, -32.38546169993994, 5.693771332185786, 1.5052601582219083, -19.310380422770244, -2.329893476040187, -9.073264891932702, -7.964881528488461, 5.255074285180593, 5.239048116565644, 0.6610608744099143, -1.2652327763216085 ], "mae": [ 3.3392608833204607, 6.296908066896927, 6.14428649913171, 4.172075661983133, 24.326008037950643, 8.10182915000138, 6.415076154437506, 7.94358890848922, 4.455008032614026, 38.03710789574397, 32.44422608495344, 6.219361320873595, 11.564680928629777, 32.74272857005562, 5.972051431050692, 2.4723774414184208, 22.78285159314983, 5.030732873653545, 10.398045955554123, 9.984185491193752, 5.894031430664217, 5.479961029679438, 10.619770146241688, 6.141679998381004 ], "mse": [ 20.641932632643762, 110.52968554148073, 170.3000163992266, 32.218698833773374, 1638.4212728460957, 93.76010880293815, 172.21313364541507, 181.3086855804002, 40.99418189779568, 4122.345281193472, 1345.182330391795, 117.24329576070267, 239.28690719618828, 2434.0693827589535, 67.24830374460939, 13.873831164853915, 1813.0646494455543, 86.24927099981508, 275.0455764647839, 429.2836727192064, 84.8663037828018, 57.26897188422903, 286.4977133433003, 73.36194200452705 ], "var": [ 59.029008615545926, 217.15547008657543, 179.45527279790502, 93.62913781540554, 708.649825565521, 335.37228068538735, 82.63990262526987, 170.02565829616088, 198.45330127500787, 363.9651691173621, 171.68092163198438, 156.84283221422928, 406.01653194187753, 198.8976330171259, 165.2945262159462, 110.39278210996954, 196.70857681931545, 114.56299771900943, 130.12336354837538, 120.40890899966193, 255.6309712230035, 167.2663369475284, 441.47813912023463, 108.3042446285639 ], "zero": [ 0.07856434034012037, 0.053879449830906305, 0.11961313348051815, 0.07528412098583218, 0.027583500180204935, 0.006719813633678996, 0.17269454681964758, 0.12520476865443653, 0.11259402932596514, 0.02849285802048877, 0.08117152005421405, 0.039958916753986794, 0.046313101756351, 0.041863822172994815, 0.049581828510942165, 0.16594524526679674, 0.05743030646381031, 0.10784468706350836, 0.10080052759579528, 0.08395535029239423, 0.06686790839509517, 0.03838228901161852, 0.048060861883123446, 0.04707630680494277 ] }, "crps": 8.74247161637662, "crpss": -0.05699713170487519, "rps": 0.522680233830052, "rpss": -0.15424437242409272, "mean_bias_mm": -5.600060359798227, "mean_mae_mm": 11.540743066086172, "mean_rmse_mm": 24.070447950611694, "spread_error_ratio": 0.6086917992621543, "zero_fraction": 0.07399513472072386, "correlation": 0.26190701477059913, "pit_histogram": [ 0.02853, 0.04709, 0.07622, 0.09347, 0.10817, 0.12985, 0.12863, 0.12606, 0.11831, 0.14367 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.3093717387643114 } }, "operational": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 2.274342240594377, 4.024160065048853, 12.182193671166832, 5.566229744229738, 5.360821477188685, 7.304802084813004, 4.829400075829113, 2.34755101849073 ], "crps_clim": [ 3.840649245962226, 2.9635126140043284, 11.660524877797739, 2.9183695971477044, 3.477601142846446, 4.259321637104846, 3.1351156438044105, 3.1728418151724775 ], "rps": [ 0.3545550680360679, 0.4304827412391139, 0.5654590346317251, 0.5513483653100925, 0.5216268074726028, 0.6804012177982344, 0.5897838923037012, 0.3153931227621937 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.524230481898705, 0.4593885401867237, 0.5017173979879027, 0.4051068206667376, 0.4317667103339062, 0.4153152702181896, 0.47288784486408364, 0.4886335324867942 ], "bias": [ 3.8580908046801836, -2.2752778792888084, -12.751762668847299, -4.7887984175827105, -3.6610744055886135, -6.187808633646088, 5.3601854657299555, 2.0118443171644764 ], "mae": [ 4.355134260670972, 5.04150085950514, 14.495031381978363, 6.621440850650309, 6.53303919665697, 8.939112344933324, 8.937109300948649, 3.4916947403449257 ], "mse": [ 53.919405144223504, 84.01402639017911, 623.221228193766, 197.14503191307423, 216.74512257267654, 289.9404855401859, 150.3488111671551, 24.252213592551815 ], "var": [ 143.08309093826145, 126.27988645956142, 281.81645967755526, 77.67168592248902, 115.64645002630816, 153.65304538596294, 348.4481250159977, 158.27549753968094 ], "zero": [ 0.0896369511255632, 0.06470533732175329, 0.036836556807757395, 0.10513016302470657, 0.09463728323539414, 0.06423395433216478, 0.03234979461405436, 0.11507503013111603 ] }, "crps": 5.486187547170166, "crpss": -0.23883874201607136, "rps": 0.5011312811942165, "rpss": -0.08380636540897068, "mean_bias_mm": -2.3043251771723634, "mean_mae_mm": 7.301757866961082, "mean_rmse_mm": 14.31601517756343, "spread_error_ratio": 0.925660178871907, "zero_fraction": 0.07532563382406372, "correlation": 0.20989172986925628, "pit_histogram": [ 0.01715, 0.0373, 0.04809, 0.06677, 0.10536, 0.13383, 0.17183, 0.17177, 0.13884, 0.10907 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.4613998985561254 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 2.2821712998963566, 4.929840340382012, 13.165723914761426, 5.730447017841877, 2.2892222852298754, 4.523254105081792, 5.859358643549236, 2.17213880651938 ], "crps_clim": [ 4.156168553465009, 3.538722242103148, 14.589550778766494, 3.336016465541637, 3.2225107652008003, 2.991934313605765, 3.4730598185838906, 3.692380181189609 ], "rps": [ 0.398184141314757, 0.44475608172290054, 0.4351559158412319, 0.5546877721002966, 0.33836862113677685, 0.49922637709790146, 0.7133065775572686, 0.3743541311102133 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5378222677027902, 0.46540376292499014, 0.544167761935176, 0.42259006334453925, 0.4687251767879638, 0.37920455847261086, 0.47625759961208325, 0.48392303022441024 ], "bias": [ 4.65511440448883, -4.517760448348782, -14.087282342611699, -4.6342894719688665, 0.6787998596116681, -2.13870471607122, 9.165573135099818, 2.89509607945169 ], "mae": [ 4.919558565235643, 6.113761860630448, 15.476993119824, 7.222833893926149, 3.3174132354362467, 6.296820762784033, 11.451806732747203, 3.778255387392651 ], "mse": [ 62.316337920858075, 133.7204117780002, 551.5991308071625, 225.87401232966053, 31.39705524466196, 155.91121839733376, 174.01837077331786, 25.387027150625553 ], "var": [ 166.94826126292136, 97.48606443686865, 438.6780100499694, 80.2369094845876, 103.97721598693995, 167.1182189049369, 470.93855683849995, 134.3569266294981 ], "zero": [ 0.09496716266718189, 0.07323134573350991, 0.027923490218392792, 0.11955057187797707, 0.10422667393197127, 0.0708129056659379, 0.01792138219118463, 0.14444809202402287 ] }, "crps": 5.119019551657745, "crpss": -0.050046054437965726, "rps": 0.4697549522351683, "rpss": 0.005308126783001521, "mean_bias_mm": -0.9979316875435702, "mean_mae_mm": 7.322180444747047, "mean_rmse_mm": 13.039476429297403, "spread_error_ratio": 1.1046250931319126, "zero_fraction": 0.0816352030387723, "correlation": 0.3459495788011807, "pit_histogram": [ 0.02801, 0.05966, 0.06027, 0.08214, 0.11176, 0.1631, 0.17463, 0.1506, 0.10197, 0.06785 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.4041323095201439 } }, "full": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 2.455564493122197, 4.322095351890393, 13.394031724607975, 3.0967606442390947, 12.613569308681292, 2.9233330264966435, 4.553983284242912, 6.533337856145365, 4.078339840534121, 22.862010187802245, 19.262032706350674, 5.655276511190706, 4.677658089455756, 27.609764635164588, 2.846554947599128, 3.096457519272455, 16.800443818546714, 5.49407336870066, 5.100353373915615, 7.279143998366871, 2.974028898868524, 2.9111218176414546, 8.426016764130265, 3.3893871499119554, 2.274342240594377, 4.024160065048853, 12.182193671166832, 5.566229744229738, 5.360821477188685, 7.304802084813004, 4.829400075829113, 2.34755101849073 ], "crps_clim": [ 2.8572571807760165, 3.1865323464856155, 10.383599749568983, 2.5619649424777258, 15.714771517105724, 3.3680154534657665, 2.765672743937594, 5.300295600051972, 2.8388059419872405, 21.851414927820926, 17.1664341858879, 3.7370645400554223, 3.942032189422852, 25.551792834412236, 3.6290536020800803, 2.8900168246080717, 14.071028267301827, 3.0762760995886107, 3.6632019409978067, 3.7186259353467004, 3.564689968626687, 2.839593289203478, 7.19932849431782, 3.43605995135926, 3.8609579743608737, 2.8299285708739577, 12.23962820019987, 2.794216883727665, 3.293480646075853, 4.260034824273769, 3.0060012627324424, 3.1366202401449357 ], "rps": [ 0.4546118995570998, 0.5082324095187024, 0.7162117551175636, 0.49281162694870584, 0.37379397386267416, 0.5165936385323255, 0.5798357519857377, 0.6583352585150452, 0.5708012593212785, 0.587767838833562, 0.6327561006773836, 0.5821053110227443, 0.5811797410941817, 0.6141875624963152, 0.4513984578875, 0.3304250773883331, 0.641051356978857, 0.6460896578649339, 0.4511713968439553, 0.6953864480967955, 0.42738939312524576, 0.47013971624869183, 0.543061513554551, 0.46354862341785086, 0.36502660101736584, 0.44788851572823557, 0.5612624103205054, 0.595854231895545, 0.540339663435761, 0.6971778077798664, 0.5957672148445176, 0.3156083294140303 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.42597328472277496, 0.3506474587875527, 0.4500587082647611, 0.32853144302379395, 0.4793056617036147, 0.4798374907327482, 0.3541533787330895, 0.4731556449679077, 0.3927115296130284, 0.5155155067499355, 0.5115992154696631, 0.4372196861501219, 0.5134082784354855, 0.5544160313927202, 0.4916821403090456, 0.46169725845021364, 0.48685690274881205, 0.4101509392762119, 0.472007224293684, 0.4017865592049955, 0.4940497459609742, 0.37193747436870483, 0.4453370890748853, 0.4489261212476537, 0.5165803609034532, 0.4475995691106898, 0.5228420289369178, 0.41806933442655636, 0.4281627076345683, 0.41613299701643813, 0.4679489278571733, 0.4937218068532966 ], "bias": [ 1.6562854567212217, -1.319665873808458, -13.557817217445423, -0.8732929791940992, -7.3430453880984965, 6.238109898942441, -3.4134760647215217, -4.75395032227814, -1.2119851713326752, -23.17386636899691, -20.70058900305539, -3.811075508858032, 10.364635654051272, -30.73367734367289, 5.309161276050553, -0.7230211254952332, -16.615758345247965, -4.740640136292079, -4.2762243165960525, -6.907669858401682, 5.861265827951624, 4.688684367758945, -4.968813276596072, 0.2400466996383363, 3.8580908046801836, -2.2752778792888084, -12.751762668847299, -4.7887984175827105, -3.6610744055886135, -6.187808633646088, 5.3601854657299555, 2.0118443171644764 ], "mae": [ 3.9496883706593238, 5.8166773600793, 15.560580286890655, 4.294229024670344, 17.63367730566322, 6.64607335560214, 5.331843599797946, 7.977386136790224, 5.1902458371308064, 27.135940464927206, 22.303890042409495, 7.552058070881228, 10.537205672179127, 31.34826782933113, 5.8493247592336655, 3.7392098442920076, 20.033709475669244, 6.532299383422144, 6.2587105782615255, 8.996461277869654, 6.260751133266366, 5.505567185948919, 11.67184275223136, 5.130594960753555, 4.355134260670972, 5.04150085950514, 14.495031381978363, 6.621440850650309, 6.53303919665697, 8.939112344933324, 8.937109300948649, 3.4916947403449257 ], "mse": [ 40.13542439402984, 131.58767345341684, 1023.177353835777, 50.04450851306781, 1110.0592063052243, 80.60589226831891, 110.19795423753165, 165.84230900888411, 78.65690780862694, 2469.6496176769183, 827.0240434177148, 225.49484418800705, 243.11377998007887, 2322.4705643532775, 90.7311039585048, 55.58802179730945, 1525.206235220929, 165.83363047397106, 141.8917965597305, 328.0319910189077, 110.10013583378081, 63.656317622066446, 383.6682160378162, 58.350185745086506, 53.919405144223504, 84.01402639017911, 623.221228193766, 197.14503191307423, 216.74512257267654, 289.9404855401859, 150.3488111671551, 24.252213592551815 ], "var": [ 108.33122734687619, 178.51802000688073, 164.88390940221296, 78.74508260543875, 464.2914636932163, 255.842887166515, 112.62310783720666, 190.68484377647624, 182.61630261086427, 347.70853658587185, 171.85443938518, 158.13038469006761, 394.76724643296416, 172.30042420877817, 202.51291263203703, 132.8323963384688, 236.2974799892026, 110.42981192494611, 104.5943546601394, 88.94703309836247, 238.48145629668923, 199.22349923345092, 268.3449306706627, 133.49471823706972, 143.08309093826145, 126.27988645956142, 281.81645967755526, 77.67168592248902, 115.64645002630816, 153.65304538596294, 348.4481250159977, 158.27549753968094 ], "zero": [ 0.06246143284184453, 0.05495944867910176, 0.07848287457412811, 0.05325719542746489, 0.030781569054674135, 0.027670857788747442, 0.14393882186909293, 0.0841961327231594, 0.07222490606557701, 0.031210639840147155, 0.05500002747991127, 0.04697989715557832, 0.032750238494727184, 0.040749665908579286, 0.06327580180741041, 0.12303434794022053, 0.050903315907059966, 0.10102514351700966, 0.08107857983883338, 0.07202398599044342, 0.04921821821739066, 0.039302649377388935, 0.035994084478899686, 0.05073366128847943, 0.0896369511255632, 0.06470533732175329, 0.036836556807757395, 0.10513016302470657, 0.09463728323539414, 0.06423395433216478, 0.03234979461405436, 0.11507503013111603 ] }, "crps": 7.382651240444967, "crpss": -0.15390888393349256, "rps": 0.5346190794789332, "rpss": -0.1829473046200556, "mean_bias_mm": -4.162530641761114, "mean_mae_mm": 9.677196801364039, "mean_rmse_mm": 20.494438299071827, "spread_error_ratio": 0.6737538715583422, "zero_fraction": 0.06512058021432435, "correlation": 0.15946755939960913, "pit_histogram": [ 0.02913, 0.04006, 0.05895, 0.07361, 0.0986, 0.126, 0.14725, 0.15356, 0.13697, 0.13586 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.3992892050410034 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 2.2246765494472447, 4.773527094956737, 4.967981322879055, 2.484460216892419, 18.743878314095113, 3.1591822148934976, 5.363190742723596, 5.991948598932759, 3.7392552541993016, 32.04398452721952, 28.734119952453568, 4.7344132654827025, 4.630079098239121, 28.75785485343322, 2.68291939792636, 1.8847523163139273, 18.80337658156624, 3.878766486208194, 8.53409410421778, 8.24020739371487, 2.6354439108221444, 2.6632198919506544, 6.075518462829942, 4.072468241640901, 2.2821712998963566, 4.929840340382012, 13.165723914761426, 5.730447017841877, 2.2892222852298754, 4.523254105081792, 5.859358643549236, 2.17213880651938 ], "crps_clim": [ 2.8175577367545985, 3.9021745191382493, 3.3034198610233836, 3.0658976041547716, 27.95661134379484, 3.362418886433096, 3.1100028100913844, 4.094088898027647, 2.797475683019447, 31.07358038415444, 26.285415911798307, 3.5258493082035396, 4.105091866216406, 26.621986127319055, 3.742042717578652, 3.517340209583741, 15.411353025851831, 2.673910822235419, 5.68084916383337, 4.795224659874851, 3.5512909190087862, 2.905159579919633, 5.944050077935008, 4.117186323773333, 4.037389747963682, 3.4488650528891722, 15.716463704166275, 3.2680339255822792, 3.0328683611021146, 2.8141009404740527, 3.4247012737105678, 3.5844382254089533 ], "rps": [ 0.5575643563436401, 0.5054578690765363, 0.5898017637335745, 0.44650931417300127, 0.16403779309638133, 0.6817303721610463, 0.5811638107179545, 0.6263996267191642, 0.6274466677011746, 0.4842581248653787, 0.6227632645888094, 0.560789389346234, 0.6640429745490661, 0.4890219883830902, 0.5916268954485415, 0.24154395407239765, 0.5838967705166092, 0.4938445722078908, 0.6771276559865863, 0.6334188332665339, 0.4447445619171271, 0.5066935122502428, 0.4516890287006203, 0.5306092727836891, 0.4162433192055375, 0.46204289601290544, 0.40028750144575054, 0.6000790377722416, 0.3497208832877299, 0.5116698901922443, 0.7099890539271585, 0.38067513679790027 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4298711247134212, 0.33951771473196274, 0.3580324977963315, 0.3440075796304816, 0.5614000118944327, 0.42739667374627904, 0.31854005006647745, 0.4274262614020923, 0.4024604048415598, 0.5070497366915091, 0.5496038326833845, 0.44190671299078577, 0.5231727861116291, 0.5620037572257898, 0.5267904535413438, 0.5284018227909777, 0.48322502696648467, 0.40592076688279005, 0.44404886379291797, 0.4240421871939146, 0.4646575370925135, 0.37305364252256173, 0.4173925133581936, 0.4446715007416715, 0.5288605928241447, 0.4618809475548823, 0.5613869457241275, 0.4470539791818982, 0.45697580457229925, 0.3508328348614358, 0.47125617734541536, 0.4764068519243777 ], "bias": [ 1.0940500970364844, -1.2143859933388839, -3.6941523595325148, 1.3615293196380256, -18.79404001952233, 8.057441603900385, -4.921305445489289, -4.9201929693375135, -0.906538360758367, -33.271378105913485, -32.38954420436195, -2.391873462798497, 11.563841294249787, -32.38546169993994, 5.693771332185786, 1.5052601582219083, -19.310380422770244, -2.329893476040187, -9.073264891932702, -7.964881528488461, 5.255074285180593, 5.239048116565644, 0.6610608744099143, -1.2652327763216085, 4.65511440448883, -4.517760448348782, -14.087282342611699, -4.6342894719688665, 0.6787998596116681, -2.13870471607122, 9.165573135099818, 2.89509607945169 ], "mae": [ 3.3392608833204607, 6.296908066896927, 6.14428649913171, 4.172075661983133, 24.326008037950643, 8.10182915000138, 6.415076154437506, 7.94358890848922, 4.455008032614026, 38.03710789574397, 32.44422608495344, 6.219361320873595, 11.564680928629777, 32.74272857005562, 5.972051431050692, 2.4723774414184208, 22.78285159314983, 5.030732873653545, 10.398045955554123, 9.984185491193752, 5.894031430664217, 5.479961029679438, 10.619770146241688, 6.141679998381004, 4.919558565235643, 6.113761860630448, 15.476993119824, 7.222833893926149, 3.3174132354362467, 6.296820762784033, 11.451806732747203, 3.778255387392651 ], "mse": [ 20.641932632643762, 110.52968554148073, 170.3000163992266, 32.218698833773374, 1638.4212728460957, 93.76010880293815, 172.21313364541507, 181.3086855804002, 40.99418189779568, 4122.345281193472, 1345.182330391795, 117.24329576070267, 239.28690719618828, 2434.0693827589535, 67.24830374460939, 13.873831164853915, 1813.0646494455543, 86.24927099981508, 275.0455764647839, 429.2836727192064, 84.8663037828018, 57.26897188422903, 286.4977133433003, 73.36194200452705, 62.316337920858075, 133.7204117780002, 551.5991308071625, 225.87401232966053, 31.39705524466196, 155.91121839733376, 174.01837077331786, 25.387027150625553 ], "var": [ 59.029008615545926, 217.15547008657543, 179.45527279790502, 93.62913781540554, 708.649825565521, 335.37228068538735, 82.63990262526987, 170.02565829616088, 198.45330127500787, 363.9651691173621, 171.68092163198438, 156.84283221422928, 406.01653194187753, 198.8976330171259, 165.2945262159462, 110.39278210996954, 196.70857681931545, 114.56299771900943, 130.12336354837538, 120.40890899966193, 255.6309712230035, 167.2663369475284, 441.47813912023463, 108.3042446285639, 166.94826126292136, 97.48606443686865, 438.6780100499694, 80.2369094845876, 103.97721598693995, 167.1182189049369, 470.93855683849995, 134.3569266294981 ], "zero": [ 0.07856434034012037, 0.053879449830906305, 0.11961313348051815, 0.07528412098583218, 0.027583500180204935, 0.006719813633678996, 0.17269454681964758, 0.12520476865443653, 0.11259402932596514, 0.02849285802048877, 0.08117152005421405, 0.039958916753986794, 0.046313101756351, 0.041863822172994815, 0.049581828510942165, 0.16594524526679674, 0.05743030646381031, 0.10784468706350836, 0.10080052759579528, 0.08395535029239423, 0.06686790839509517, 0.03838228901161852, 0.048060861883123446, 0.04707630680494277, 0.09496716266718189, 0.07323134573350991, 0.027923490218392792, 0.11955057187797707, 0.10422667393197127, 0.0708129056659379, 0.01792138219118463, 0.14444809202402287 ] }, "crps": 7.836608600196901, "crpss": -0.055049894867508, "rps": 0.5183403153514612, "rpss": -0.14714752507731643, "mean_bias_mm": -4.449528191734562, "mean_mae_mm": 10.486102410751391, "mean_rmse_mm": 21.841401850496702, "spread_error_ratio": 0.6679947073657602, "zero_fraction": 0.07590515180023596, "correlation": 0.25831437524536777, "pit_histogram": [ 0.0284, 0.05023, 0.07223, 0.09064, 0.10906, 0.13816, 0.14013, 0.13219, 0.11423, 0.12471 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.316987921063879 } }, "distribution_full": { "ethiopia": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 0.8211389843802364, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.5297084557905564 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0536164657139113, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.5173889134430064 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.05828561359991882, "area_mean_abs_log": 4.803153083018199 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 0.641068407483428, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.9356495878399957 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.1000635527514735, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.5887201889300921 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.02725490196078433, "area_mean": 0.05952789457903368 } }, "ondj_domain": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 0.8238951678156534, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.4454979993068521 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 0.8835783052891792, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.3181853684208407 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.04233613015290653, "area_mean_abs_log": 6.265820710757112 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 0.7633993886368611, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.9459279461211703 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.1282085593468392, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.5543212722456977 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.05661764705882351, "area_mean": 0.07590515180023594 } } } }, "ls": { "training": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 2.6029796934785057, 4.265551403543148, 10.82319159999471, 2.5534988192353816, 10.307799744830795, 4.201959565653495, 3.508912791614073, 5.546365416709554, 3.79791888624668, 17.54638876362704, 16.70316737886107, 4.124011744322018, 7.693006956189028, 23.18981819161615, 4.317844390908693, 2.8339138795151726, 12.592149734965636, 4.149881632651717, 4.236580786025791, 5.086507403708085, 4.736889573322676, 4.303776782651468, 8.013417255610516, 3.287472263298094 ], "crps_clim": [ 3.069144896531585, 3.3858676721658623, 10.074246020518368, 2.773361990265274, 15.332066536235006, 3.604951743610606, 2.9367188887863067, 5.050819710999868, 3.0258348712866763, 21.012210746646392, 16.801010670653753, 3.7894449827302754, 4.194423053287697, 25.04733364035127, 3.8894382629868667, 3.276619104881488, 13.516550290161696, 3.1815721446141088, 3.8044427745910094, 3.8505600739044343, 3.8413777807512575, 3.029724174279054, 7.270640397516081, 3.55202677848655 ], "rps": [ 0.4479283871778359, 0.45898614398860105, 0.5552565165932958, 0.43138935074172413, 0.3595128902866268, 0.599886936982817, 0.5175563279335008, 0.5742678555218402, 0.4818532766670414, 0.464512695994443, 0.54056758115106, 0.4777791511811704, 0.6619115638686224, 0.4770206954653014, 0.49088000201563053, 0.28674635145041105, 0.5059453212910469, 0.5324909299335777, 0.4048122837630808, 0.5590130633420807, 0.49630076745712154, 0.5170618422961941, 0.4853818373718721, 0.42285885751143254 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4625629239522452, 0.36451731789334524, 0.44125991446339186, 0.36766510384083156, 0.4796288408201259, 0.5018388021804165, 0.38147740265907437, 0.45785739893807914, 0.37358783510004456, 0.5052606258044735, 0.5036552005735562, 0.4358799343390295, 0.5001476339830571, 0.5372757885017574, 0.4967176371371437, 0.4833984207814198, 0.48412488996957304, 0.42298688095193837, 0.47887418976886764, 0.4007717998366474, 0.49873748259985246, 0.40202165211061897, 0.4457035075298269, 0.452337281302436 ], "bias": [ 5.264649976057094, 3.8951243978593557, -9.668356926213017, 1.8153223401316871, 4.036130704459447, 11.67390310808052, -0.6022503863472748, -0.4627351394852199, 3.295595215170369, -17.466611601453135, -16.95471014646711, 0.8823228208841526, 18.4682614576768, -26.511581648220215, 10.358001543703805, 2.428715896079701, -11.667425421907238, -1.8444649377452902, -1.2307513965055812, -3.6972437036336467, 11.510294201001718, 10.326009338960427, 2.7808704129358035, 4.126555564269739 ], "mae": [ 5.790121112888292, 6.790863979250316, 12.557781671360091, 3.5565212153513146, 16.990980528353813, 11.686776229166483, 3.817907892791679, 5.965265619689628, 5.3785907823003, 21.098089532856168, 18.988131442680224, 5.375541898881489, 18.468336159332154, 27.013125673344945, 10.424304893183889, 4.250442000465458, 15.480490808283086, 4.6637402906893195, 4.702799704437502, 6.112345780219911, 11.535824616606153, 10.351020989378517, 12.538904165082505, 6.288626885669406 ], "mse": [ 72.986770938114, 170.3456061449035, 722.6270165722135, 37.24509305835325, 670.3374637778553, 273.5883704901797, 53.10272492990288, 103.80287732919622, 82.66143194408744, 1623.5234627603754, 618.8967927198954, 93.96654616258014, 811.7335331859113, 1665.8318891574058, 303.50858195064836, 58.839351403417425, 992.9451340596077, 84.64149033813378, 79.0513217994679, 170.9899059463844, 387.7983408437581, 234.44773391415586, 324.02461468400287, 88.26065156655163 ], "var": [ 267.27152340463397, 520.1244548255049, 444.4419958481079, 185.88740498821153, 1387.7762895491967, 775.3157670411828, 278.47926866751914, 482.41496611785095, 476.6995507878847, 864.6958200304218, 417.93987247003963, 412.77493182376145, 1116.979322675338, 437.25119054178236, 554.4007895965475, 370.2921706553296, 583.36772938353, 306.107418766445, 277.34535729203986, 225.82380084120302, 730.5254396197461, 535.9971025137123, 828.8257947407088, 348.0190607815507 ], "zero": [ 0.06246143284184453, 0.05495944867910176, 0.07848287457412811, 0.05325719542746489, 0.030781569054674135, 0.027670857788747442, 0.14393882186909293, 0.0841961327231594, 0.07222490606557701, 0.031210639840147155, 0.05500002747991127, 0.04697989715557832, 0.032750238494727184, 0.040749665908579286, 0.06327580180741041, 0.12303434794022053, 0.050903315907059966, 0.10102514351700966, 0.08107857983883338, 0.07202398599044342, 0.04921821821739066, 0.039302649377388935, 0.035994084478899686, 0.05073366128847943 ] }, "crps": 7.100958527440812, "crpss": -0.006571465996251469, "rps": 0.4895800262494303, "rpss": -0.08012585506901715, "mean_bias_mm": 0.031484402887204034, "mean_mae_mm": 10.409438911344276, "mean_rmse_mm": 20.129949397267392, "spread_error_ratio": 1.148534342991436, "zero_fraction": 0.06171889567774456, "correlation": 0.03164704078200462, "pit_histogram": [ 0.02812, 0.0389, 0.06587, 0.09568, 0.12487, 0.15127, 0.17125, 0.14288, 0.09648, 0.08467 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.38055695920173693 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 2.4819564880803524, 5.315892411651889, 4.1484188777475834, 2.5576144240507572, 14.245649379140186, 5.051068661081005, 3.8762094999428545, 4.881477380340812, 3.7489194879823606, 24.85359976706429, 25.757748813088885, 4.189213781905243, 8.347321249296368, 23.618859773327927, 4.995765941807512, 2.2436868239485235, 13.460048720849617, 2.827190657016534, 7.172544788789406, 5.691131539643141, 4.417033729278519, 4.726123774156633, 6.615916496385769, 3.6472859006607536 ], "crps_clim": [ 3.134642569756797, 4.0368873592733205, 3.423335292543674, 3.3738802296500032, 27.106814106125587, 3.7253738930894196, 3.249450552047323, 4.035569151257637, 2.965809999169824, 30.070724508266622, 25.830159399346183, 3.580613889817456, 4.549159240055732, 25.77593644509466, 4.188541565312743, 3.9517287715065783, 14.718801138616833, 2.963090816144978, 5.6582471562161265, 4.848776670389135, 3.9672709222205658, 3.261152428150299, 5.930891894544658, 4.158239602390194 ], "rps": [ 0.5423200414004947, 0.4741466983863797, 0.47279684511971365, 0.4313589564288303, 0.10861575934147716, 0.8061534341248171, 0.49525662881332727, 0.5340752667048229, 0.5442892747205982, 0.3778484122478591, 0.562306318957222, 0.5023117368999629, 0.7623807260974215, 0.36210546855058356, 0.6480120527651367, 0.22331004597603457, 0.4525677416626704, 0.37047475471145985, 0.6069096908953682, 0.4945560522512494, 0.4869550650032313, 0.6255058093815121, 0.43477090199888685, 0.46470916970080584 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4612583063145251, 0.36325581037926996, 0.3548837655357383, 0.3845191261452081, 0.5442138131835412, 0.47392048479376536, 0.3369486554725916, 0.41421918051654527, 0.37845219279141734, 0.4951720255695432, 0.5339101560355515, 0.4478677807232184, 0.5122698437472656, 0.5463196106078548, 0.5151171353423272, 0.5367285502205256, 0.4864254375606979, 0.45042529314649876, 0.45228609712142287, 0.40382417088714717, 0.4727414090541605, 0.43354624566717376, 0.435070354227705, 0.43462262504974214 ], "bias": [ 4.677715402154466, 5.784475194425351, 1.428444350670328, 4.691664015457277, -5.083950609312821, 14.992780270253045, -1.9341230980439754, -0.46911275702773747, 3.856755052468282, -26.978891195111668, -28.751425943499594, 3.0934444565126884, 20.76901935422329, -27.068389659297807, 12.00045206656072, 5.090496120277081, -13.884513402412345, 0.8218266190540924, -5.5034004137528125, -3.974774553164052, 11.399949423089138, 11.51147899842216, 11.3128892381289, 2.5917944927258083 ], "mae": [ 4.827913367461784, 9.262095795680123, 4.5343412246651615, 5.2194663879216, 19.40422313904148, 14.992780270253045, 4.1996875571293035, 5.397230056061637, 5.031955185693183, 31.591213557327368, 28.813930696427573, 5.7046562271129755, 20.76901935422329, 27.445946995519424, 12.14186050351535, 5.189411227517723, 18.30495752289326, 4.295106118100483, 7.49638713929891, 6.196381661713096, 11.401935785951382, 11.51147899842216, 12.459707008248849, 6.362080397424476 ], "mse": [ 50.00232152790614, 242.62886269253036, 85.92153518390074, 59.250076361666395, 882.7947358196436, 369.8244974713715, 81.83889200753374, 92.3624382576201, 84.77363526220115, 2905.2385779914553, 1065.3955500084717, 82.01303350500547, 903.1799851664663, 1632.1147043750682, 337.5507050286687, 73.27523212786447, 1146.503716502448, 43.68665008085942, 156.1681858170789, 222.99447151914248, 368.39618514697213, 277.99911233710924, 259.4339701558899, 87.3992205484284 ], "var": [ 164.05573605790644, 722.5192708896062, 579.8758381727812, 234.4098309888555, 2095.944041153552, 1091.730125716491, 244.29778548529717, 435.73265850553315, 554.9865125737223, 913.975899732466, 428.0142864821187, 467.81816147212584, 1256.191844829894, 573.326170128355, 522.8487043801224, 363.81411969702356, 522.0850059828033, 343.96345265298964, 362.7867929994761, 328.95890933430985, 873.6236255711741, 517.1856417027095, 1334.0946690315525, 252.6037620914318 ], "zero": [ 0.07856434034012037, 0.053879449830906305, 0.11961313348051815, 0.07528412098583218, 0.027583500180204935, 0.006719813633678996, 0.17269454681964758, 0.12520476865443653, 0.11259402932596514, 0.02849285802048877, 0.08117152005421405, 0.039958916753986794, 0.046313101756351, 0.041863822172994815, 0.049581828510942165, 0.16594524526679674, 0.05743030646381031, 0.10784468706350836, 0.10080052759579528, 0.08395535029239423, 0.06686790839509517, 0.03838228901161852, 0.048060861883123446, 0.04707630680494277 ] }, "crps": 7.869611598634872, "crpss": 0.048534870641536276, "rps": 0.49098903550582773, "rpss": -0.0842601163655301, "mean_bias_mm": 0.015608475949992595, "mean_mae_mm": 11.773073590733484, "mean_rmse_mm": 21.900101117437128, "spread_error_ratio": 1.1485592660673687, "zero_fraction": 0.07399513472072386, "correlation": 0.12316564311605697, "pit_histogram": [ 0.02603, 0.04867, 0.0942, 0.12249, 0.13623, 0.14147, 0.15559, 0.11155, 0.0772, 0.08657 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.33467034894379344 } }, "operational": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 3.232081043315675, 3.470807084781647, 10.229548475215406, 4.3836922668856655, 4.577628452103535, 5.735120113590924, 6.687885548530483, 2.6126794038663275 ], "crps_clim": [ 3.840649245962226, 2.9635126140043284, 11.660524877797739, 2.9183695971477044, 3.477601142846446, 4.259321637104846, 3.1351156438044105, 3.1728418151724775 ], "rps": [ 0.41369107574007413, 0.41746559654085874, 0.44042071784759673, 0.49924312300561025, 0.4906749321364787, 0.5795186166692865, 0.6337276096728768, 0.32689613769856823 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.524230481898705, 0.4593885401867237, 0.5017173979879027, 0.4051068206667376, 0.4317667103339062, 0.4153152702181896, 0.47288784486408364, 0.4886335324867942 ], "bias": [ 7.7987711537308195, 1.3242150361424547, -5.6951564753157236, -2.2833637123061727, -0.61028548608387, -2.5248063244182184, 13.845904533025436, 5.387377288971529 ], "mae": [ 7.868840464701642, 4.820759185067254, 12.021547575655143, 4.7054811376555845, 5.987706845973005, 6.752425219285204, 14.929527477916892, 5.60469201053003 ], "mse": [ 186.26392186930408, 58.32616775053912, 400.4222950021846, 118.6026047048481, 154.84884067254254, 172.39128504565977, 446.5608025482246, 72.40427665288091 ], "var": [ 406.2145885308566, 356.2643415613059, 821.9576829111168, 188.40098110022473, 276.59450486189326, 405.8107424027229, 998.3669487139555, 412.46352480411804 ], "zero": [ 0.0896369511255632, 0.06470533732175329, 0.036836556807757395, 0.10513016302470657, 0.09463728323539414, 0.06423395433216478, 0.03234979461405436, 0.11507503013111603 ] }, "crps": 5.116180298536207, "crpss": -0.15528722094731773, "rps": 0.47520472616391873, "rpss": -0.027734500751069646, "mean_bias_mm": 2.1553320017182815, "mean_mae_mm": 7.836372489598094, "mean_rmse_mm": 14.18546877197835, "spread_error_ratio": 1.5496954476334668, "zero_fraction": 0.07532563382406372, "correlation": 0.20989172986925625, "pit_histogram": [ 0.01272, 0.03657, 0.05227, 0.08286, 0.12048, 0.1835, 0.21132, 0.14609, 0.08914, 0.06505 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.5227729019972538 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 3.495831955457451, 3.9143028546343284, 11.252446501484027, 4.515808352309293, 2.4189653082722247, 3.61354581588646, 9.148657885862944, 2.82648373286938 ], "crps_clim": [ 4.156168553465009, 3.538722242103148, 14.589550778766494, 3.336016465541637, 3.2225107652008003, 2.991934313605765, 3.4730598185838906, 3.692380181189609 ], "rps": [ 0.4496558775418479, 0.41720887375320226, 0.3129839712027471, 0.4922625685749697, 0.3582454106203176, 0.4568724970999955, 0.7770349332700979, 0.39516665477252794 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5378222677027902, 0.46540376292499014, 0.544167761935176, 0.42259006334453925, 0.4687251767879638, 0.37920455847261086, 0.47625759961208325, 0.48392303022441024 ], "bias": [ 9.215638705601508, -0.8546154854126837, -4.2341754880845395, -1.7415159781319667, 4.037718441297966, 2.151470769253722, 20.279159882516833, 6.5990231061548785 ], "mae": [ 9.215638705601508, 4.624208535906146, 12.53267207199833, 5.169322599435348, 4.673604335779292, 5.789129986709585, 20.279159882516833, 6.5990231061548785 ], "mse": [ 231.52592720773006, 71.69199286027907, 319.2693295687127, 143.884432731342, 44.11169600363631, 85.0755325845049, 659.6613363055482, 97.2201895616999 ], "var": [ 496.1011520944038, 302.3671654848521, 1297.6588052815202, 203.52009262122394, 260.71821065621657, 462.5376202066144, 1341.9467216681765, 368.84487322215244 ], "zero": [ 0.09496716266718189, 0.07323134573350991, 0.027923490218392792, 0.11955057187797707, 0.10422667393197127, 0.0708129056659379, 0.01792138219118463, 0.14444809202402287 ] }, "crps": 5.148255300847014, "crpss": -0.056043078433466675, "rps": 0.45742884835446324, "rpss": 0.03140827814963976, "mean_bias_mm": 4.4315879941494645, "mean_mae_mm": 8.61034490301274, "mean_rmse_mm": 14.372023330169334, "spread_error_ratio": 1.6925332632501324, "zero_fraction": 0.0816352030387723, "correlation": 0.3459495788011807, "pit_histogram": [ 0.02501, 0.06611, 0.07849, 0.10373, 0.1378, 0.21746, 0.20367, 0.09702, 0.0368, 0.0339 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.5253233388614952 } }, "full": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 2.4906967424896598, 4.149146324735562, 10.852812293105266, 2.532800281279432, 10.088760356585007, 3.985969242074157, 3.532855541587243, 5.697032977690969, 3.6535157612196305, 18.182477697540232, 17.099071611911217, 4.03241764279293, 7.368247675184377, 23.296224184736555, 4.161721025043386, 2.6915045972886333, 12.961334377964759, 4.1566148751191205, 4.259284574857003, 4.988977272678334, 4.599225809815096, 4.068934296881171, 7.478286988568278, 3.2578975552779483, 3.1689687303872813, 3.404430971726977, 10.168407957408935, 4.348462953830441, 4.418790685020161, 5.6474098231337155, 6.358325925878458, 2.5316405731603795 ], "crps_clim": [ 2.8572571807760165, 3.1865323464856155, 10.383599749568983, 2.5619649424777258, 15.714771517105724, 3.3680154534657665, 2.765672743937594, 5.300295600051972, 2.8388059419872405, 21.851414927820926, 17.1664341858879, 3.7370645400554223, 3.942032189422852, 25.551792834412236, 3.6290536020800803, 2.8900168246080717, 14.071028267301827, 3.0762760995886107, 3.6632019409978067, 3.7186259353467004, 3.564689968626687, 2.839593289203478, 7.19932849431782, 3.43605995135926, 3.8609579743608737, 2.8299285708739577, 12.23962820019987, 2.794216883727665, 3.293480646075853, 4.260034824273769, 3.0060012627324424, 3.1366202401449357 ], "rps": [ 0.43819867751838953, 0.48218263901651703, 0.5675759096516447, 0.4440850016901783, 0.33227820856717244, 0.5658597375144552, 0.5389743288706937, 0.5948135961800549, 0.5126177485764127, 0.4655235707043753, 0.5350244944057205, 0.48438607976861997, 0.664012887946193, 0.4708388846268377, 0.4934730550717583, 0.3064007874770687, 0.5074201114798047, 0.5745514946521997, 0.4268176816407403, 0.5712682378353228, 0.5025867895673374, 0.49824613203750606, 0.4641152932319987, 0.42966951644935203, 0.40238312622482925, 0.4166250460331957, 0.45095581904614546, 0.5347701552321228, 0.4958070821735887, 0.5862718203059964, 0.6238429077044247, 0.32218775757737805 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.42597328472277496, 0.3506474587875527, 0.4500587082647611, 0.32853144302379395, 0.4793056617036147, 0.4798374907327482, 0.3541533787330895, 0.4731556449679077, 0.3927115296130284, 0.5155155067499355, 0.5115992154696631, 0.4372196861501219, 0.5134082784354855, 0.5544160313927202, 0.4916821403090456, 0.46169725845021364, 0.48685690274881205, 0.4101509392762119, 0.472007224293684, 0.4017865592049955, 0.4940497459609742, 0.37193747436870483, 0.4453370890748853, 0.4489261212476537, 0.5165803609034532, 0.4475995691106898, 0.5228420289369178, 0.41806933442655636, 0.4281627076345683, 0.41613299701643813, 0.4679489278571733, 0.4937218068532966 ], "bias": [ 4.829672501361431, 3.4786040777363, -10.048231643651398, 1.5810591755072017, 2.4005695095770125, 10.780135112699522, -0.8011027150837469, -0.9674615835132925, 2.866321790622255, -18.01469552180632, -17.13862923526341, 0.398405997792807, 17.27020701332174, -26.822418591580174, 9.828054784137525, 2.168704032961845, -12.1718412589957, -2.16126913255597, -1.4938384282325163, -4.109747182797187, 10.858561648789555, 9.475676601205711, 1.5463107039445572, 3.64242425655783, 7.524119147323616, 0.956629311259483, -6.818358487490763, -2.6557556997260963, -1.0326444877700327, -3.0413765409190723, 13.457518130725164, 5.062658723439491 ], "mae": [ 5.346651698072485, 6.420475992180902, 12.512496351914136, 3.472801453429708, 16.134583932237692, 10.796653870330799, 3.815223008882583, 6.343050532968135, 4.856058423169275, 21.903597319400387, 19.526473775971695, 5.029153881458263, 17.27022138515201, 27.160207003491927, 9.889483306154757, 3.7055104312844103, 15.684032524716395, 4.619764028488267, 4.631159838231302, 5.949487264265919, 10.878113825081353, 9.49267264798865, 11.288169797301942, 5.986781905356194, 7.5746241518256285, 4.471472057583116, 11.77285512276803, 4.623708057266273, 5.501136464046267, 6.512279826721743, 14.209459462236643, 5.195760218025231 ], "mse": [ 67.43867724942841, 146.3821965355232, 719.9060144873997, 34.75375771239355, 627.4420136125879, 240.85156970601372, 56.556320500761956, 118.72403008105795, 70.00214689443781, 1720.2991435743452, 645.7953385580083, 82.92874051750547, 745.3389134744278, 1673.4995668413512, 292.01728097908153, 45.50457376039857, 1042.6537859121433, 82.04166783970724, 80.32391241313655, 166.17281398781088, 365.60713775973375, 207.05482453505937, 264.33041070451884, 86.26786191711162, 182.809953477219, 53.73976215099181, 378.3572186774992, 118.87290391637565, 142.9610445943328, 165.60762724187603, 401.93422870531435, 64.51011228949804 ], "var": [ 250.1601988641136, 492.2680605240541, 407.16177734003253, 178.7765978057304, 1225.3002872670904, 668.8209207590427, 272.56240451018647, 441.89324502320153, 446.0202558756808, 810.0720690058207, 402.9042513185515, 388.2854098100905, 961.6819237085068, 407.8055149834431, 535.5766003384535, 354.6900615918131, 544.4950034124951, 276.7255926992994, 258.6856295598763, 205.8631861170737, 641.7329772269348, 471.8469673407512, 717.2978021027785, 322.7626960469703, 388.5498651142916, 333.726547302051, 733.6448264311589, 173.42456749023458, 251.2235753993024, 363.7090988559141, 967.513015352502, 391.40382141112855 ], "zero": [ 0.06246143284184453, 0.05495944867910176, 0.07848287457412811, 0.05325719542746489, 0.030781569054674135, 0.027670857788747442, 0.14393882186909293, 0.0841961327231594, 0.07222490606557701, 0.031210639840147155, 0.05500002747991127, 0.04697989715557832, 0.032750238494727184, 0.040749665908579286, 0.06327580180741041, 0.12303434794022053, 0.050903315907059966, 0.10102514351700966, 0.08107857983883338, 0.07202398599044342, 0.04921821821739066, 0.039302649377388935, 0.035994084478899686, 0.05073366128847943, 0.0896369511255632, 0.06470533732175329, 0.036836556807757395, 0.10513016302470657, 0.09463728323539414, 0.06423395433216478, 0.03234979461405436, 0.11507503013111603 ] }, "crps": 6.551007728967885, "crpss": -0.02392294732283795, "rps": 0.49074264308681353, "rpss": -0.08586226938902897, "mean_bias_mm": 0.02650818779929298, "mean_mae_mm": 9.455441236187568, "mean_rmse_mm": 18.61676458078767, "spread_error_ratio": 1.17402146726465, "zero_fraction": 0.06512058021432435, "correlation": 0.06179303405098532, "pit_histogram": [ 0.02421, 0.03582, 0.05885, 0.0853, 0.12113, 0.15945, 0.18755, 0.15072, 0.09763, 0.07934 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.4377042332237223 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 2.2828293789809, 5.077315466267901, 4.074204725832323, 2.432191096300207, 14.360772962696428, 4.477636790586701, 3.9825550248895563, 4.9263900332010975, 3.676492996597328, 25.704314515103, 26.314678168261043, 4.079310505988733, 7.539827336508594, 24.33835473724481, 4.460561359914572, 2.14361386468971, 14.025405557938864, 2.840021545000745, 7.322270367254694, 5.820132336982677, 4.042652941628214, 4.22440009239944, 6.078619167921059, 3.6601624582522243, 3.309592985951938, 3.9942900410048625, 11.507487150089963, 4.58537159423783, 2.2969795694128305, 3.537183677614511, 8.722584920461928, 2.6943199909424878 ], "crps_clim": [ 2.8175577367545985, 3.9021745191382493, 3.3034198610233836, 3.0658976041547716, 27.95661134379484, 3.362418886433096, 3.1100028100913844, 4.094088898027647, 2.797475683019447, 31.07358038415444, 26.285415911798307, 3.5258493082035396, 4.105091866216406, 26.621986127319055, 3.742042717578652, 3.517340209583741, 15.411353025851831, 2.673910822235419, 5.68084916383337, 4.795224659874851, 3.5512909190087862, 2.905159579919633, 5.944050077935008, 4.117186323773333, 4.037389747963682, 3.4488650528891722, 15.716463704166275, 3.2680339255822792, 3.0328683611021146, 2.8141009404740527, 3.4247012737105678, 3.5844382254089533 ], "rps": [ 0.5253851788452372, 0.47252140181158264, 0.500841156490104, 0.427967837837648, 0.10719025798778405, 0.7261780399160565, 0.5232046305594419, 0.5573897556117072, 0.5986117371886354, 0.37014720455409345, 0.5458645393680781, 0.5150750596350855, 0.7476088873225911, 0.3620097257270055, 0.6367857717739156, 0.24824049985848037, 0.45574267594806417, 0.4299476379130624, 0.6570991380478007, 0.5345079483390983, 0.4879404635665626, 0.5682736929611999, 0.42903654887076487, 0.4776550940907773, 0.44353810878233735, 0.43525219276191257, 0.314324960068706, 0.5314017338704354, 0.35635538974000136, 0.45002969024540834, 0.7646891444805614, 0.39564482644103416 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4298711247134212, 0.33951771473196274, 0.3580324977963315, 0.3440075796304816, 0.5614000118944327, 0.42739667374627904, 0.31854005006647745, 0.4274262614020923, 0.4024604048415598, 0.5070497366915091, 0.5496038326833845, 0.44190671299078577, 0.5231727861116291, 0.5620037572257898, 0.5267904535413438, 0.5284018227909777, 0.48322502696648467, 0.40592076688279005, 0.44404886379291797, 0.4240421871939146, 0.4646575370925135, 0.37305364252256173, 0.4173925133581936, 0.4446715007416715, 0.5288605928241447, 0.4618809475548823, 0.5613869457241275, 0.4470539791818982, 0.45697580457229925, 0.3508328348614358, 0.47125617734541536, 0.4764068519243777 ], "bias": [ 3.9166262408732617, 4.476539882531371, 0.4227611919664915, 3.9229815754162622, -8.081853642210765, 13.312368433230002, -2.5245408670266793, -1.396076783457473, 2.9249474984248645, -28.197501281465374, -29.479137025968498, 2.0430513935995447, 18.673444176808395, -28.02770722238039, 10.683520267079738, 4.386185373761705, -14.939639233526236, 0.1366764207180214, -6.159998304032454, -4.780550733058316, 10.16485750727063, 10.175349365919484, 9.039358051232046, 1.7314654399967033, 8.547146689190628, -1.589314378400799, -6.346496158460732, -2.403980341527678, 3.379430960904043, 1.301588329229054, 19.295476457330558, 5.96296352543788 ], "mae": [ 4.202521667209776, 8.3271635030373, 4.116716096576134, 4.67544880591563, 18.74214065652711, 13.312368433230002, 4.340426074351326, 5.443080657586409, 4.562380044826032, 32.32627192155111, 29.51602862619854, 5.2966058583190065, 18.673444176808395, 28.283235408872077, 10.804748078183755, 4.482206505216339, 18.631383131027608, 4.019456603560398, 7.792407833703074, 6.372542288778696, 10.183076789065955, 10.175349365919484, 10.748575888065503, 6.163682908355073, 8.547146689190628, 4.5559442548048, 12.590829056008646, 5.24372024021634, 4.076538050010227, 5.281482797390875, 19.295476457330558, 5.96296352543788 ], "mse": [ 39.91702770069591, 195.08946576463146, 80.75932269270898, 49.57628257682163, 863.5700992078935, 298.50173919435485, 89.18358425215278, 97.29456131211066, 69.56083754421886, 3049.15863334005, 1106.6440312791656, 73.08554848666637, 758.9697317937462, 1701.3025057865964, 275.77921510643495, 58.55247927539026, 1220.1619420584595, 42.638632994469674, 166.96245992693338, 234.32343777060973, 309.8352052549331, 227.3124623628232, 190.5664174879375, 82.41883179002022, 211.70104577262563, 74.6813166191016, 318.6589184699873, 152.22847757779496, 36.15224739446345, 82.340365266724, 591.7683062979255, 84.90019665570057 ], "var": [ 141.54487056095903, 621.7310653564305, 502.3968392341084, 202.28514309715507, 1780.2203165096792, 915.9778563981945, 211.40877831090205, 379.13875213214027, 483.4263485102935, 819.0804443219292, 379.0313770179068, 412.9480003706286, 1043.9212738299573, 501.3232507263734, 443.79930046897726, 309.9840581643863, 464.88262717427887, 289.89148948191036, 318.3640072148371, 287.9450084095113, 735.07018363618, 441.5624618333785, 1121.805755174493, 221.5887451238698, 449.134031450921, 262.51281379818266, 1126.2590672753577, 175.97584568951552, 228.07056546831666, 402.04797929369727, 1279.725911984113, 332.32983844357125 ], "zero": [ 0.07856434034012037, 0.053879449830906305, 0.11961313348051815, 0.07528412098583218, 0.027583500180204935, 0.006719813633678996, 0.17269454681964758, 0.12520476865443653, 0.11259402932596514, 0.02849285802048877, 0.08117152005421405, 0.039958916753986794, 0.046313101756351, 0.041863822172994815, 0.049581828510942165, 0.16594524526679674, 0.05743030646381031, 0.10784468706350836, 0.10080052759579528, 0.08395535029239423, 0.06686790839509517, 0.03838228901161852, 0.048060861883123446, 0.04707630680494277, 0.09496716266718189, 0.07323134573350991, 0.027923490218392792, 0.11955057187797707, 0.10422667393197127, 0.0708129056659379, 0.01792138219118463, 0.14444809202402287 ] }, "crps": 7.141641355004912, "crpss": 0.03851419087204866, "rps": 0.48738940408172415, "rpss": -0.07864955142868735, "mean_bias_mm": 0.01781071279391533, "mean_mae_mm": 10.523292574789835, "mean_rmse_mm": 20.026229151582484, "spread_error_ratio": 1.1605539808481125, "zero_fraction": 0.07590515180023596, "correlation": 0.14826822114642937, "pit_histogram": [ 0.02356, 0.04891, 0.08424, 0.10753, 0.13284, 0.15775, 0.17419, 0.11734, 0.07307, 0.08058 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.37928157861420453 } }, "distribution_full": { "ethiopia": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0032115607199634, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.01313489328308005 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 1.2610043453137265, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.40821240938002185 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.06993826935349437, "area_mean_abs_log": 4.625849274456398 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 0.8292947467300856, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.5624266732436968 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.3078869521188272, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.3659994714887298 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.02725490196078433, "area_mean": 0.05952789457903368 } }, "ondj_domain": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0030961068446753, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.005413175355301664 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0651059474073472, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.2493456285106173 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.05261885174282899, "area_mean_abs_log": 6.122968757936199 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9267674510623825, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.5719380826770041 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.2678109746286534, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.3821427863044434 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.05661764705882351, "area_mean": 0.07590515180023594 } } } }, "mvs": { "training": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 2.8380042013975673, 3.7723215306965914, 10.539210628130112, 2.0643241109404373, 9.86130058842325, 4.503514612944234, 2.8088114102467863, 4.883243557250305, 3.2778549135432953, 17.953741807306052, 16.491367455029067, 3.6297116225312536, 7.886212692492976, 23.481176018939397, 4.735247882523792, 2.5712371367078273, 12.477407584723387, 3.3594218718956608, 3.8020142784615887, 4.423719596096409, 5.129374819122246, 4.124982592254489, 7.664493052965322, 3.202067492098193 ], "crps_clim": [ 3.069144896531585, 3.3858676721658623, 10.074246020518368, 2.773361990265274, 15.332066536235006, 3.604951743610606, 2.9367188887863067, 5.050819710999868, 3.0258348712866763, 21.012210746646392, 16.801010670653753, 3.7894449827302754, 4.194423053287697, 25.04733364035127, 3.8894382629868667, 3.276619104881488, 13.516550290161696, 3.1815721446141088, 3.8044427745910094, 3.8505600739044343, 3.8413777807512575, 3.029724174279054, 7.270640397516081, 3.55202677848655 ], "rps": [ 0.5406925119955325, 0.41832781484278175, 0.48003082045293155, 0.3619228029807779, 0.3775770060548282, 0.698872420760751, 0.47173108121620094, 0.5096914161605905, 0.446092399041019, 0.3868125015890316, 0.5098006407891601, 0.4708392838414722, 0.7467984999048456, 0.41446206957135273, 0.582866126258593, 0.29107563030477057, 0.4247947244470905, 0.4383232398007397, 0.5064001584125264, 0.49458313651535474, 0.5982078464406831, 0.500292018173088, 0.4564261190829524, 0.48815914621505696 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4625629239522452, 0.36451731789334524, 0.44125991446339186, 0.36766510384083156, 0.4796288408201259, 0.5018388021804165, 0.38147740265907437, 0.45785739893807914, 0.37358783510004456, 0.5052606258044735, 0.5036552005735562, 0.4358799343390295, 0.5001476339830571, 0.5372757885017574, 0.4967176371371437, 0.4833984207814198, 0.48412488996957304, 0.42298688095193837, 0.47887418976886764, 0.4007717998366474, 0.49873748259985246, 0.40202165211061897, 0.4457035075298269, 0.452337281302436 ], "bias": [ 5.823257334868671, 4.432791792382675, -9.45038910909575, 3.093188049051396, 1.396857294822589, 11.553169425770468, 0.4876459063383879, -0.2921937095965751, 3.3507121560709363, -18.102939156046336, -16.96678015583064, 1.158801703545276, 17.166953572367323, -26.506725879764115, 10.540527622528442, 3.414643236595547, -12.011427008727143, -0.8785943857857759, -0.16696486531284296, -2.772781465352978, 11.363848334390429, 9.955197590683238, 1.8779811975965293, 4.5873413542195465 ], "mae": [ 6.281048411812189, 6.692383132888238, 12.600899447085977, 3.9123524701749184, 15.479169404707818, 11.553369905084816, 3.9818064582145447, 6.052825376643232, 5.302174350237695, 21.867723717865264, 18.583855944920877, 5.365332535671026, 17.16695968895186, 27.038122017693272, 10.568056443602183, 5.10307488412886, 15.59470240463584, 4.419531796647525, 5.330750470870546, 5.7357241100572365, 11.38285473987855, 10.023326620505303, 11.990339549224633, 6.466713763915871 ], "mse": [ 81.92495858177082, 157.14955033435433, 721.3629793136693, 43.99902910597194, 598.1497823312582, 263.36936533050965, 52.317526613003245, 105.11383486523602, 82.9741472656231, 1698.4083481842476, 601.7107027145433, 91.1969800684292, 730.4472240047068, 1670.8442272800867, 302.4912501466491, 74.73390837678836, 1004.4186397337153, 80.39448868752041, 83.14226711642054, 164.51204542881104, 379.6069503525134, 224.94091188287715, 296.6607184922976, 93.0801569611134 ], "var": [ 161.87333835396478, 395.2960664271248, 318.93077268920445, 143.42687355399727, 978.989952174187, 511.9736505942279, 194.70627597778991, 340.6543218767174, 343.64825113763027, 628.4767035079852, 301.0749543497714, 326.43202015789717, 705.2671722469636, 308.5192521219776, 354.750916295241, 257.9719425936242, 424.73894876105606, 204.2064264905732, 207.12029359426091, 173.74446507301843, 470.3516795345301, 338.5981152569926, 599.3525451938239, 210.80838034789997 ], "zero": [ 0.108951376390529, 0.11109813093092895, 0.12303129918028284, 0.12582493121815838, 0.06589041078984299, 0.07348182852244861, 0.17143123266933344, 0.1419156002979241, 0.13614854423516165, 0.09421350888966334, 0.1229285520651859, 0.11839674456432098, 0.0881624439470541, 0.1000190035826794, 0.11383201617439241, 0.17374276753632933, 0.11316721668253929, 0.17479340097442195, 0.16198490324499037, 0.14142236228637675, 0.11829419493529653, 0.09795899644078991, 0.1156399107029148, 0.13204740998125922 ] }, "crps": 6.895031727363343, "crpss": 0.022618965160455806, "rps": 0.4839491422855054, "rpss": -0.0677028332335019, "mean_bias_mm": 0.12725503482163733, "mean_mae_mm": 10.353879068559095, "mean_rmse_mm": 20.003072673521224, "spread_error_ratio": 0.9627531587191507, "zero_fraction": 0.12184903276011767, "correlation": 0.017409438666115978, "pit_histogram": [ 0.11231, 0.04502, 0.06494, 0.08928, 0.11025, 0.12841, 0.13724, 0.12399, 0.0906, 0.09795 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.224411401266484 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 2.6317234436045878, 4.846080408485903, 3.660247638313387, 2.364330201220297, 14.193494004658998, 5.444589793896271, 3.2549167641518233, 4.288402833870986, 3.245469921840812, 26.14979061755462, 25.72636631629056, 3.696422374194308, 8.69183207474042, 23.805338274137455, 5.615348164496039, 2.3980955200461422, 13.600972848976902, 2.4150574795219644, 6.366659564961086, 5.119016694430943, 4.577230113215609, 4.761247716647245, 6.101845624742583, 3.598092216635389 ], "crps_clim": [ 3.134642569756797, 4.0368873592733205, 3.423335292543674, 3.3738802296500032, 27.106814106125587, 3.7253738930894196, 3.249450552047323, 4.035569151257637, 2.965809999169824, 30.070724508266622, 25.830159399346183, 3.580613889817456, 4.549159240055732, 25.77593644509466, 4.188541565312743, 3.9517287715065783, 14.718801138616833, 2.963090816144978, 5.6582471562161265, 4.848776670389135, 3.9672709222205658, 3.261152428150299, 5.930891894544658, 4.158239602390194 ], "rps": [ 0.5248180072492731, 0.445669377412756, 0.44927088946822, 0.4140303844714551, 0.11365026080918639, 0.8056198356888303, 0.4962460506908094, 0.4993639081778516, 0.5808377595146268, 0.3621762119392181, 0.5896467583580991, 0.5102233167686498, 0.7461602780679966, 0.38487738537860605, 0.6404025584166341, 0.22532627269505154, 0.39595008789146363, 0.28401676490936567, 0.636824601590052, 0.4840777729242133, 0.4241140924693584, 0.6021116636634418, 0.4602176868632428, 0.46331367887693475 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4612583063145251, 0.36325581037926996, 0.3548837655357383, 0.3845191261452081, 0.5442138131835412, 0.47392048479376536, 0.3369486554725916, 0.41421918051654527, 0.37845219279141734, 0.4951720255695432, 0.5339101560355515, 0.4478677807232184, 0.5122698437472656, 0.5463196106078548, 0.5151171353423272, 0.5367285502205256, 0.4864254375606979, 0.45042529314649876, 0.45228609712142287, 0.40382417088714717, 0.4727414090541605, 0.43354624566717376, 0.435070354227705, 0.43462262504974214 ], "bias": [ 5.569439691751872, 5.85461419496821, 1.8053889392239122, 5.838963809958443, -7.610715199599795, 14.567556336845282, -0.8709215771241234, 0.14164249658886768, 4.454355362898368, -27.61673591816554, -28.29560285950603, 3.451195171078501, 19.809891344864187, -27.09335888475838, 11.960277834318873, 6.170743180360629, -13.812581259097186, 1.7238639555875392, -4.5492484511745515, -3.2990473799887954, 11.585153040245155, 11.428736742266821, 10.156193943420131, 3.354892701101616 ], "mae": [ 5.614033417897797, 8.84873402532672, 4.740575811203925, 6.017579024242698, 19.120278204880794, 14.567556336845282, 4.246531794578322, 5.44168087294236, 5.253326667783153, 32.543359408088335, 28.36601210740738, 5.837389290726408, 19.809891344864187, 27.511633473926565, 12.03019843760596, 6.188443468840975, 18.401128424918692, 4.364361493842647, 7.424322171228097, 6.235990617796623, 11.585153040245155, 11.428736742266821, 12.000145708844677, 6.621806565618717 ], "mse": [ 64.1117640794448, 206.96164676070748, 90.01281460028852, 73.97163079376566, 865.5614208519735, 349.1096653029381, 73.40215390038166, 89.40190793538679, 91.78082914549721, 3036.4340502392774, 1037.9672823041285, 83.30504982133624, 822.3134655544743, 1641.1459295944426, 332.443312113994, 98.19551173638256, 1150.2954024612284, 43.00484320565939, 147.8136150842451, 220.40780157416506, 369.54022523145534, 274.97848965522803, 225.84172602041957, 97.31823055131709 ], "var": [ 119.07437370489646, 545.5715074157459, 443.85391663249663, 192.0734248804648, 1562.2779058573599, 750.6039629898495, 185.5070252169438, 355.67813400867163, 427.8009958466969, 664.2875343372415, 349.9965264105877, 378.4777983037055, 847.1037804598097, 433.2164410767548, 370.40316480614973, 264.1138311233418, 437.44812052881684, 235.16326489820284, 285.91933399663577, 253.66614974482783, 593.2343386072365, 369.65746607793864, 1018.6086985052115, 197.54532621209358 ], "zero": [ 0.12944796308384657, 0.1341273253992522, 0.1668163179099258, 0.15924976289372417, 0.07117387311434867, 0.06342339708796293, 0.23013405621791697, 0.1870946910663212, 0.2132410266646494, 0.09933019691328546, 0.1825699699876555, 0.14542389414509982, 0.10784889896365708, 0.13072505302903978, 0.13421786409901648, 0.24912019606545924, 0.14567126862066115, 0.2196182476334865, 0.2363738424116913, 0.1748959048373839, 0.17804725702740914, 0.10752586786064143, 0.13172056852408787, 0.18065608660734844 ] }, "crps": 7.773023775443097, "crpss": 0.060212695466278165, "rps": 0.4807894001789723, "rpss": -0.06173607410257209, "mean_bias_mm": 0.196862384002667, "mean_mae_mm": 11.841619518830095, "mean_rmse_mm": 21.875898808694828, "spread_error_ratio": 0.9910777375840456, "zero_fraction": 0.15743556375682796, "correlation": 0.12053622544786921, "pit_histogram": [ 0.06945, 0.0431, 0.0669, 0.10404, 0.13034, 0.14925, 0.15546, 0.11434, 0.0752, 0.09193 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.30684359553405754 } }, "operational": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 3.5976750917817353, 3.142213742182164, 9.721184909248784, 3.746719663909414, 4.087921519306302, 5.020196048879931, 6.282276803679484, 2.4766099854414136 ], "crps_clim": [ 3.840649245962226, 2.9635126140043284, 11.660524877797739, 2.9183695971477044, 3.477601142846446, 4.259321637104846, 3.1351156438044105, 3.1728418151724775 ], "rps": [ 0.516794617297117, 0.4862356176556645, 0.3993636129563735, 0.4648115174483209, 0.43505246573360035, 0.4793531302797718, 0.7153061094255367, 0.38169057425834696 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.524230481898705, 0.4593885401867237, 0.5017173979879027, 0.4051068206667376, 0.4317667103339062, 0.4153152702181896, 0.47288784486408364, 0.4886335324867942 ], "bias": [ 8.300714521702986, 1.9138999236006022, -6.127718471093506, -1.1345555164626724, 0.17633852439620962, -1.9939472485865521, 12.684136462006318, 6.114259292533744 ], "mae": [ 8.354338465967919, 5.096542866566027, 11.663240775220341, 4.970190358363352, 6.375129526124766, 6.784436840797737, 13.73647774494464, 6.278975952891558 ], "mse": [ 198.16212074590868, 60.419577012809675, 381.95523852886464, 114.0143356134352, 160.06170464410076, 169.6016307769611, 370.0788098369144, 86.50206933349898 ], "var": [ 288.8130183378917, 238.02013630567356, 612.730634689372, 128.2218883852427, 187.00132886620682, 273.59421447898575, 714.8688334936055, 285.9073511272781 ], "zero": [ 0.13787022281701442, 0.14391619563970912, 0.09459969078133376, 0.16039167088212927, 0.1604964645880377, 0.1280119156702954, 0.07912670175100618, 0.1616227601638888 ] }, "crps": 4.7593497205536535, "crpss": -0.07471113044002342, "rps": 0.4848259556318415, "rpss": -0.048542520788345644, "mean_bias_mm": 2.491640936012141, "mean_mae_mm": 7.907416566359542, "mean_rmse_mm": 13.87801988078853, "spread_error_ratio": 1.3308888710604363, "zero_fraction": 0.13325445278667683, "correlation": 0.2058932823217109, "pit_histogram": [ 0.10565, 0.04962, 0.07276, 0.08523, 0.09394, 0.15367, 0.16747, 0.10951, 0.09406, 0.06809 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.2726171780662144 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 3.901141476613736, 3.690478376920101, 10.701494622008905, 4.002811702229487, 2.531406410383704, 3.231343401722645, 8.542420987101401, 2.7984677088379715 ], "crps_clim": [ 4.156168553465009, 3.538722242103148, 14.589550778766494, 3.336016465541637, 3.2225107652008003, 2.991934313605765, 3.4730598185838906, 3.692380181189609 ], "rps": [ 0.4331733911634506, 0.5135670054610638, 0.331253053115027, 0.41408661570307764, 0.3806034610864812, 0.4374782741338521, 0.7871345286889819, 0.34549009537221814 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5378222677027902, 0.46540376292499014, 0.544167761935176, 0.42259006334453925, 0.4687251767879638, 0.37920455847261086, 0.47625759961208325, 0.48392303022441024 ], "bias": [ 9.763638290566053, -0.02513539836994613, -5.285813686648345, -0.7354778711028158, 4.907530104046301, 2.6947368448203255, 18.659533570380038, 7.371892258469254 ], "mae": [ 9.763638290566053, 4.981042291278657, 11.824265698632894, 5.285072291045686, 5.577223979131376, 6.205641702776701, 18.659533570380038, 7.371892258469254 ], "mse": [ 247.61749472646693, 72.70096975108687, 284.07620866348526, 136.3260071129059, 64.33815314076551, 89.05307224171543, 538.8131837563658, 116.99192868968755 ], "var": [ 377.5545476637006, 233.0817213352743, 987.8815058347217, 152.5186258381475, 206.74815046843048, 343.9673257178895, 1009.8968277657126, 287.8999599831335 ], "zero": [ 0.1787428202657279, 0.18691548197591748, 0.1084444351906132, 0.19753178620158687, 0.21126543257956076, 0.1685338552174883, 0.06648431465110782, 0.20376426343885767 ] }, "crps": 4.924945585727244, "crpss": -0.010236360386600696, "rps": 0.4553483030905191, "rpss": 0.03581376968529748, "mean_bias_mm": 4.668863014020109, "mean_mae_mm": 8.708538760285084, "mean_rmse_mm": 13.919038302279, "spread_error_ratio": 1.5239467823569663, "zero_fraction": 0.1652102986901075, "correlation": 0.3432133643273884, "pit_histogram": [ 0.07701, 0.05975, 0.08559, 0.08968, 0.09275, 0.20429, 0.21866, 0.09679, 0.04641, 0.02907 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.4458943738315095 } }, "full": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 2.612292472201337, 3.5797011892928072, 10.656388995728175, 1.9678608474243182, 9.891348753505842, 4.190891776845594, 2.7868669627952256, 5.128364137749827, 3.069313288696626, 18.699113661879636, 16.89492652397896, 3.5448115464747465, 7.437448066833384, 23.809046421963547, 4.423970533991759, 2.228673902073097, 12.894168654542787, 3.374426240034954, 3.7345234321052647, 4.282301133276961, 4.839564656796298, 3.8423166850525323, 7.170294111492683, 3.153174976271761, 3.5490068752514996, 2.9609306842952816, 9.803342158008727, 3.632252636401852, 3.8652819292031295, 4.9627306085142155, 5.874430068781371, 2.332214989220791 ], "crps_clim": [ 2.8572571807760165, 3.1865323464856155, 10.383599749568983, 2.5619649424777258, 15.714771517105724, 3.3680154534657665, 2.765672743937594, 5.300295600051972, 2.8388059419872405, 21.851414927820926, 17.1664341858879, 3.7370645400554223, 3.942032189422852, 25.551792834412236, 3.6290536020800803, 2.8900168246080717, 14.071028267301827, 3.0762760995886107, 3.6632019409978067, 3.7186259353467004, 3.564689968626687, 2.839593289203478, 7.19932849431782, 3.43605995135926, 3.8609579743608737, 2.8299285708739577, 12.23962820019987, 2.794216883727665, 3.293480646075853, 4.260034824273769, 3.0060012627324424, 3.1366202401449357 ], "rps": [ 0.5049007117269093, 0.43336029813665455, 0.49487062527648457, 0.35419259559297495, 0.3404367158190808, 0.6506436833281859, 0.4740457148790918, 0.5440136726893376, 0.4797721000700559, 0.39524502689840835, 0.5087752561064097, 0.47577910494033393, 0.7440270999056889, 0.4103845598675364, 0.5719217238324771, 0.2798603795928736, 0.423668802046102, 0.4964155652183323, 0.5129174584352886, 0.4954458934300389, 0.5913317417140472, 0.4784336628625664, 0.4165708621657855, 0.4938077306997366, 0.49274958343744607, 0.4578245152720773, 0.41617906591889836, 0.4921814899489441, 0.43333104451022186, 0.48400396303402315, 0.6960031433295656, 0.3693621733058698 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.42597328472277496, 0.3506474587875527, 0.4500587082647611, 0.32853144302379395, 0.4793056617036147, 0.4798374907327482, 0.3541533787330895, 0.4731556449679077, 0.3927115296130284, 0.5155155067499355, 0.5115992154696631, 0.4372196861501219, 0.5134082784354855, 0.5544160313927202, 0.4916821403090456, 0.46169725845021364, 0.48685690274881205, 0.4101509392762119, 0.472007224293684, 0.4017865592049955, 0.4940497459609742, 0.37193747436870483, 0.4453370890748853, 0.4489261212476537, 0.5165803609034532, 0.4475995691106898, 0.5228420289369178, 0.41806933442655636, 0.4281627076345683, 0.41613299701643813, 0.4679489278571733, 0.4937218068532966 ], "bias": [ 5.308331786338284, 3.8113600828673966, -9.893914069831036, 2.7266764168758884, -0.3566831866021309, 10.675117687172419, 0.17248495280061774, -0.8692892685800441, 2.7778948511427557, -18.821979250512026, -17.29197148924967, 0.5553721811250921, 15.984277008323462, -26.961553158412663, 9.884333873667785, 3.0290151584869784, -12.614575522236345, -1.2549073059312381, -0.5571950357851515, -3.219835729701863, 10.611098389620668, 9.114998106095811, 0.6843130136717864, 4.0332950803883945, 8.012436402005601, 1.4766637922229855, -7.252877540444402, -1.5851718681329583, -0.27520734531027985, -2.5771443188520857, 12.132215203794058, 5.7947652908384875 ], "mae": [ 5.714343717341272, 6.12161228864059, 12.547705443691978, 3.5632860532133215, 15.159318913335055, 10.675363105694926, 3.81434949486461, 6.4225020849502235, 4.649305665244683, 22.701366207855518, 19.073300122658306, 5.0075105978240675, 15.984277008323462, 27.320988183902138, 9.902393322104961, 4.379208501240187, 15.862329446501136, 4.328742521732001, 5.078325278942994, 5.393436251185604, 10.622403299657316, 9.1849437649348, 10.93243279023695, 6.122915015353247, 8.047214824127012, 4.6473298534231136, 11.55702001859394, 4.7079520037348725, 5.8070275275116074, 6.480210193046105, 12.883065210341368, 5.873746248643082 ], "mse": [ 74.7898004332147, 131.4918776882452, 717.2838930133327, 38.62364672591831, 616.4248153158209, 234.91242067674625, 53.08128246900555, 120.03365852031239, 67.78689902264244, 1803.8180082720617, 628.9551908953878, 82.01734638694776, 664.0491333135175, 1697.967089169082, 285.180098865603, 56.18623083770835, 1057.925945906032, 74.98420895328648, 80.53536910636207, 153.7983497729507, 352.0742332313718, 200.07724192056065, 251.3672340479302, 91.37713033191379, 196.69543704334708, 53.37568447428827, 371.7340629369563, 109.3530422277451, 143.60765348205663, 160.5578858631377, 324.42394731031294, 78.96259686923013 ], "var": [ 147.1445758667686, 359.0380259811665, 282.03304325831687, 130.63775460071523, 842.3109999775501, 445.6283107092676, 182.73065366901963, 300.3658246045727, 307.07336722947855, 553.0676454947424, 275.1839162045102, 292.1192251218976, 612.0247120934845, 274.7886437340206, 327.74360344080424, 236.95639273902512, 374.3624810673205, 184.27963703745132, 185.2935833716362, 153.803168263138, 413.8909104421746, 297.4965454574591, 512.31796701225, 188.61524689534238, 257.5182033616544, 217.05819362320491, 546.1199518806095, 116.86452913689932, 167.66148139032052, 246.70572032048727, 675.2166726954857, 259.5712619199483 ], "zero": [ 0.104918052558267, 0.1098792912390437, 0.11865152788635981, 0.12222672005174881, 0.062449935826022394, 0.07008786296668293, 0.16592839567004536, 0.1372467205069982, 0.13265210562369376, 0.08925964278048353, 0.11697553442646273, 0.11484123061429204, 0.08712828980696596, 0.0918347211921674, 0.11243174864281603, 0.17046251020064243, 0.1104322874080424, 0.16608089846457177, 0.1568585722547901, 0.1366440764732223, 0.1167172631815166, 0.0939260493858033, 0.10806093149682217, 0.12612330696038054, 0.12851952054264357, 0.1369828934871471, 0.10535256683280074, 0.1539386006688461, 0.15422869949406579, 0.12302202738908556, 0.0712473502131319, 0.14970402530573718 ] }, "crps": 6.287249341271405, "crpss": 0.017302506360735936, "rps": 0.48163924887473275, "rpss": -0.06571926278969342, "mean_bias_mm": 0.1016357558705181, "mean_mae_mm": 9.392685154964077, "mean_rmse_mm": 18.518108886205003, "spread_error_ratio": 0.9719100353029959, "zero_fraction": 0.1201504174859781, "correlation": 0.04716865019766199, "pit_histogram": [ 0.09797, 0.0393, 0.06037, 0.08531, 0.10897, 0.14061, 0.15308, 0.12821, 0.0935, 0.09269 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.26172345731277863 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 2.306333725857954, 4.568075976319467, 3.5626241885077454, 2.1707586997284625, 14.721004306657074, 4.739285236332299, 3.3901500795507187, 4.394762995998621, 3.134351179773837, 27.134199724874538, 26.29510276433963, 3.613779701138666, 7.757990726159428, 24.70996652130056, 4.839068680347069, 2.0668722360287544, 14.215208868701762, 2.363102092584143, 6.579664003007119, 5.273247522511381, 4.07076943530553, 4.169156023746958, 5.588238754611864, 3.6164949380333984, 3.6446715375820755, 3.7101747126638887, 11.120037995977887, 4.029588540755625, 2.307234398471357, 3.092580329620727, 8.064584585855844, 2.6381261584222115 ], "crps_clim": [ 2.8175577367545985, 3.9021745191382493, 3.3034198610233836, 3.0658976041547716, 27.95661134379484, 3.362418886433096, 3.1100028100913844, 4.094088898027647, 2.797475683019447, 31.07358038415444, 26.285415911798307, 3.5258493082035396, 4.105091866216406, 26.621986127319055, 3.742042717578652, 3.517340209583741, 15.411353025851831, 2.673910822235419, 5.68084916383337, 4.795224659874851, 3.5512909190087862, 2.905159579919633, 5.944050077935008, 4.117186323773333, 4.037389747963682, 3.4488650528891722, 15.716463704166275, 3.2680339255822792, 3.0328683611021146, 2.8141009404740527, 3.4247012737105678, 3.5844382254089533 ], "rps": [ 0.48880120257782883, 0.4380306093793856, 0.46970035509658026, 0.3981398992629871, 0.11136039123719885, 0.7022879914728319, 0.5209993270956599, 0.5383935227244523, 0.6393233110108459, 0.35880701238455337, 0.5870117915816501, 0.5202057445220741, 0.7372565455692681, 0.38662023796120587, 0.6215210291118453, 0.24501674319735023, 0.3925321638460796, 0.35933387767482233, 0.6897654731963939, 0.5293109931872224, 0.4210559337779941, 0.5538872984838387, 0.43086339247121486, 0.4930998621851568, 0.400060137400545, 0.5212169773913852, 0.3620318955729722, 0.456832639621304, 0.36792317432539223, 0.41839340605530057, 0.7719779120993687, 0.3361819636688299 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4298711247134212, 0.33951771473196274, 0.3580324977963315, 0.3440075796304816, 0.5614000118944327, 0.42739667374627904, 0.31854005006647745, 0.4274262614020923, 0.4024604048415598, 0.5070497366915091, 0.5496038326833845, 0.44190671299078577, 0.5231727861116291, 0.5620037572257898, 0.5267904535413438, 0.5284018227909777, 0.48322502696648467, 0.40592076688279005, 0.44404886379291797, 0.4240421871939146, 0.4646575370925135, 0.37305364252256173, 0.4173925133581936, 0.4446715007416715, 0.5288605928241447, 0.4618809475548823, 0.5613869457241275, 0.4470539791818982, 0.45697580457229925, 0.3508328348614358, 0.47125617734541536, 0.4764068519243777 ], "bias": [ 4.704387596560576, 4.463679738181376, 0.7485151467924902, 4.945688112628412, -10.71109472004362, 12.961692632346775, -1.5612424687407895, -0.882344284202711, 3.4248978294781574, -28.910656665508096, -29.081574571042356, 2.3101029282932704, 17.854199018262072, -28.132150806968614, 10.656820691553692, 5.353926735715301, -14.907165333589296, 0.9772869589608144, -5.343693548853889, -4.183548268885475, 10.32493844481086, 10.092058451843375, 7.952948548800048, 2.418414020081307, 9.071094939640611, -0.8620470358142812, -7.225764143633912, -1.5290838302273049, 4.232725026496747, 1.7849076200829477, 17.552359765213883, 6.719448572510362 ], "mae": [ 4.78964171947498, 7.908628947541895, 4.248906278187099, 5.25134799011544, 19.27025506198675, 12.961692632346775, 4.237230952495287, 5.426697139697094, 4.630438564216842, 33.327124071604764, 29.135770730017068, 5.352422836155012, 17.854199018262072, 28.425704464449243, 10.702091744632169, 5.3681363054893545, 18.753197697639852, 3.9441413110121704, 7.592215844476901, 6.175672415532414, 10.32493844481086, 10.092058451843375, 10.569124444431296, 6.38888185505902, 9.071094939640611, 4.756540777495931, 12.115376377104145, 5.181054112656654, 4.945851621262972, 5.563542812146545, 17.552359765213883, 6.719448572510362 ], "mse": [ 50.716405840947566, 164.0128334495586, 82.71931191669036, 60.850679448263406, 925.0470377325338, 283.96266199832917, 78.8126595524203, 92.72313245529566, 73.04959039512929, 3191.0295346544076, 1082.3329202632572, 72.7591568373499, 692.974100211017, 1725.3276916693887, 271.0159665128121, 77.96644816661004, 1227.578955102958, 38.58686567684883, 156.33684960283978, 225.66461655760543, 310.3633247287161, 224.75106159493052, 177.97678620960022, 90.7273198291341, 227.1086959325143, 71.78015695495047, 299.9281937646984, 139.63430276962762, 54.090738622331045, 83.04043649013514, 471.4611652563532, 104.37457794742248 ], "var": [ 103.31732575741535, 465.7891288442958, 380.60000716147863, 164.2487821551981, 1297.4832063108606, 639.0291817390446, 160.7575759636863, 301.87529599258795, 367.1804894100909, 567.1494511604088, 301.8172584388914, 326.0512617897926, 720.5850319457126, 370.468920485956, 316.9609275560024, 229.59419816736428, 375.38690282698985, 203.54683436320664, 245.60755140348107, 218.03803184708445, 510.49364628048545, 316.3481075368429, 851.2118548022326, 171.80655510685918, 326.66473127447114, 204.28502069328252, 872.349877260115, 133.14449096843765, 177.47820764734163, 301.702407468756, 952.6327663816496, 250.5277551832406 ], "zero": [ 0.13568004454349825, 0.1423821004131956, 0.17269312333919776, 0.1656259426574369, 0.07192731201763199, 0.06576233184589389, 0.2342778969147612, 0.19318906296900448, 0.22128166930357418, 0.10299101249662193, 0.17831008505499832, 0.1538113285826514, 0.1141549716116614, 0.12758914230303947, 0.13892365674162505, 0.2589640468995019, 0.15106152378146095, 0.22285784123967906, 0.24120109236534235, 0.18314123239055535, 0.18587874002635835, 0.1116049022441099, 0.1345521997422274, 0.1828610822131618, 0.17660989988613052, 0.19133439081396114, 0.13911212666859554, 0.19939152399045934, 0.21502472488497115, 0.17031943077719053, 0.06340782428340139, 0.20061265495325895 ] }, "crps": 6.996475207523956, "crpss": 0.05805804414478388, "rps": 0.47712321297323557, "rpss": -0.05592927408717263, "mean_bias_mm": 0.16311647189821055, "mean_mae_mm": 10.582368371859651, "mean_rmse_mm": 20.02241258108076, "spread_error_ratio": 0.9998218135879359, "zero_fraction": 0.16395421618609868, "correlation": 0.1445081650215054, "pit_histogram": [ 0.05281, 0.03992, 0.06482, 0.09646, 0.11543, 0.16727, 0.18133, 0.12293, 0.07483, 0.08419 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.3739283689332179 } }, "distribution_full": { "ethiopia": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0023343325448169, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.06469476752951044 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0129220891884052, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.15972445930877877 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.6183563114197972, "area_mean_abs_log": 4.0872917210653785 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9751986390345728, "area_mean_abs_log": 1.4584414907492638 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.1138091384762119, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.3350004932160325 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": 0.11455773185068734 } }, "ondj_domain": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0073608495245492, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.0474747898427865 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0088478038026396, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.03328138984134108 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.3665860619481687, "area_mean_abs_log": 5.715010810791708 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9492149776556249, "area_mean_abs_log": 1.9655575449168152 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.1674545232955345, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.3802807484272879 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0031127450980392157, "area_mean": 0.16395421618609843 } } } }, "vs": { "training": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 2.708790754136563, 3.763073244846503, 10.588688299606194, 1.96806990333021, 9.904931399284973, 4.345400772910271, 2.7973725253512582, 4.956463544520359, 3.2614088293483516, 17.883693658524454, 16.59535085056013, 3.696474247442882, 7.8166628378853495, 23.505791716750206, 4.571525070667199, 2.4719844488642586, 12.410333103746316, 3.445182384074874, 3.7946797172144837, 4.454263863723855, 4.990956866552317, 4.012695956581723, 7.783818419887122, 3.1274630390490312 ], "crps_clim": [ 3.069144896531585, 3.3858676721658623, 10.074246020518368, 2.773361990265274, 15.332066536235006, 3.604951743610606, 2.9367188887863067, 5.050819710999868, 3.0258348712866763, 21.012210746646392, 16.801010670653753, 3.7894449827302754, 4.194423053287697, 25.04733364035127, 3.8894382629868667, 3.276619104881488, 13.516550290161696, 3.1815721446141088, 3.8044427745910094, 3.8505600739044343, 3.8413777807512575, 3.029724174279054, 7.270640397516081, 3.55202677848655 ], "rps": [ 0.5533531822552872, 0.4065566913729295, 0.47547308099442487, 0.355826567436129, 0.38170571060678665, 0.7103445239260924, 0.4515565051448826, 0.5064580871928167, 0.43442040036516616, 0.3752886163334496, 0.4735655253371738, 0.47857188141875867, 0.7504528530822532, 0.388851572178029, 0.5933868255400357, 0.2838998750242535, 0.4201524926038927, 0.4371766517716292, 0.5253897528540342, 0.4869938648802763, 0.6126602462823653, 0.493090173094816, 0.4392533012083339, 0.49656672667013113 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4625629239522452, 0.36451731789334524, 0.44125991446339186, 0.36766510384083156, 0.4796288408201259, 0.5018388021804165, 0.38147740265907437, 0.45785739893807914, 0.37358783510004456, 0.5052606258044735, 0.5036552005735562, 0.4358799343390295, 0.5001476339830571, 0.5372757885017574, 0.4967176371371437, 0.4833984207814198, 0.48412488996957304, 0.42298688095193837, 0.47887418976886764, 0.4007717998366474, 0.49873748259985246, 0.40202165211061897, 0.4457035075298269, 0.452337281302436 ], "bias": [ 5.696846142043016, 4.486697140355198, -9.516034101752126, 2.9414084474779068, 1.97170741575845, 11.519411395624964, 0.35594319605957336, -0.3545423199212895, 3.2517338145494747, -18.06861849662347, -17.078908967328864, 1.1510059914534676, 17.304957506555578, -26.49573240909304, 10.461021227390301, 3.2829707170475415, -12.028223409159475, -0.9886663705771509, -0.28581448210181654, -2.8456737280387845, 11.36592513537029, 9.942938462090964, 2.1505512154223974, 4.500295426626152 ], "mae": [ 6.153512146708128, 6.71860943291399, 12.63611617158596, 3.8007263914850014, 15.606047931957109, 11.520943722289037, 3.9569407975350304, 6.019791957300546, 5.213803809352428, 21.77787325257535, 18.56349970333407, 5.358594403404374, 17.304957506555578, 27.020398498563424, 10.48828886619864, 4.997566194685098, 15.516556590720546, 4.526875998449145, 5.239176262741502, 5.744770458676545, 11.389522978377762, 10.01435944620587, 12.100033435281459, 6.384756044604296 ], "mse": [ 77.07409106227298, 160.8762009766079, 725.5562334677193, 40.13055767357482, 614.8188615474146, 261.57766424640823, 52.93216061144335, 103.89129148542308, 81.55402731511137, 1682.7918945808392, 603.4930885271718, 91.5011723734111, 752.8407334682454, 1664.937750680398, 300.3204897191173, 70.41551371471898, 999.7929286781049, 83.81077151800626, 80.42152881807294, 166.72843288918642, 384.1977885149546, 225.25965190336984, 307.5225605370894, 89.69283309482802 ], "var": [ 171.24797112749502, 431.47775658781626, 344.3731184757273, 150.69676067547584, 1098.752564324053, 563.1556994142062, 208.07641065935368, 368.0982393643793, 366.8269054276938, 661.9661446389035, 325.0381092738531, 353.41856162964933, 765.0700520136122, 329.2829257335883, 377.4259611663404, 279.21461988569007, 450.9604520698577, 222.22208550964191, 222.162278056428, 186.1458041149364, 516.2473262271375, 364.597653332666, 666.7366645614369, 225.6636192423258 ], "zero": [ 0.06847183010138409, 0.07118067297107517, 0.08545420604171958, 0.08386962833542867, 0.03591434697452865, 0.0381363754354045, 0.12439603543540226, 0.09871013948627227, 0.10239450752269222, 0.0555177923493015, 0.07493946280139654, 0.07453886013273592, 0.05575245055147968, 0.054594443459798574, 0.07193981355913155, 0.13047229795522247, 0.07871999346645146, 0.1287658775270141, 0.11772483989523429, 0.09533404623303228, 0.08817702926858517, 0.057740816991005715, 0.0659718943017519, 0.09006726228156528 ] }, "crps": 6.8689614772857865, "crpss": 0.026314462006134853, "rps": 0.4804581294822478, "rpss": -0.06000085809766498, "mean_bias_mm": 0.11338328955121894, "mean_mae_mm": 10.335571750062536, "mean_rmse_mm": 20.023047374009085, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0013874739716466, "zero_fraction": 0.08119935929490057, "correlation": 0.0009377611337307622, "pit_histogram": [ 0.14061, 0.04869, 0.07114, 0.09481, 0.11342, 0.12285, 0.12539, 0.10443, 0.07723, 0.10142 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.21625338022001453 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 2.529768528121334, 4.8881350735951274, 3.7254382354116853, 2.2526830241489053, 14.214871927907367, 5.288645018935267, 3.36153213245815, 4.367889327457931, 3.2067016345978185, 26.09816281570131, 25.894883753959498, 3.782867896476012, 8.607622066256875, 23.797194748616064, 5.482243495308594, 2.251452182069501, 13.501571482008265, 2.523891815065909, 6.462941627837331, 5.167686550341532, 4.4441216396776335, 4.653332471112729, 6.216441341124056, 3.5045872537319482 ], "crps_clim": [ 3.134642569756797, 4.0368873592733205, 3.423335292543674, 3.3738802296500032, 27.106814106125587, 3.7253738930894196, 3.249450552047323, 4.035569151257637, 2.965809999169824, 30.070724508266622, 25.830159399346183, 3.580613889817456, 4.549159240055732, 25.77593644509466, 4.188541565312743, 3.9517287715065783, 14.718801138616833, 2.963090816144978, 5.6582471562161265, 4.848776670389135, 3.9672709222205658, 3.261152428150299, 5.930891894544658, 4.158239602390194 ], "rps": [ 0.5309481252021353, 0.4458527078862953, 0.4525849815800348, 0.41000303854399867, 0.11254172344832497, 0.8046206058211824, 0.49741067302111386, 0.5014178068611224, 0.5727951934327757, 0.35861237705651694, 0.5299882585084452, 0.5057597918157047, 0.7357954159550227, 0.37229519687738954, 0.6361294322606342, 0.22037257181165298, 0.40179157311537456, 0.29696003006665905, 0.6437601446861003, 0.4834284848876922, 0.4230183105739139, 0.6001964403945214, 0.4619102467291587, 0.4593897797162863 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4612583063145251, 0.36325581037926996, 0.3548837655357383, 0.3845191261452081, 0.5442138131835412, 0.47392048479376536, 0.3369486554725916, 0.41421918051654527, 0.37845219279141734, 0.4951720255695432, 0.5339101560355515, 0.4478677807232184, 0.5122698437472656, 0.5463196106078548, 0.5151171353423272, 0.5367285502205256, 0.4864254375606979, 0.45042529314649876, 0.45228609712142287, 0.40382417088714717, 0.4727414090541605, 0.43354624566717376, 0.435070354227705, 0.43462262504974214 ], "bias": [ 5.437195209321242, 5.973388367168133, 1.7660517558169992, 5.682083719856029, -6.983390939782862, 14.541074968606443, -1.0134820940651603, 0.06729931757703965, 4.406071644446374, -27.585272991242324, -28.376831821679318, 3.4567087535289445, 19.95868952613048, -27.06008619808435, 11.946090489342504, 6.055425463672642, -13.783201884793211, 1.5674292476976506, -4.655739378977233, -3.383934813448423, 11.608976726819433, 11.416220014746699, 10.526591761731565, 3.2386814624547973 ], "mae": [ 5.4817889354671685, 8.952945453235175, 4.747515129990449, 5.868321507433618, 19.183796535297514, 14.541074968606443, 4.350126729804789, 5.4272119744042095, 5.206026327127057, 32.503395546286725, 28.443770421777657, 5.849625712659101, 19.95868952613048, 27.48253247294603, 12.016011092629594, 6.073125752152988, 18.36854011352331, 4.475757893950523, 7.395979671233143, 6.277870350005295, 11.608976726819433, 11.416220014746699, 12.077026252380923, 6.5232674721873485 ], "mse": [ 59.021100622926845, 214.3512507707786, 90.36676575284723, 68.03420362378988, 862.6844011124844, 346.34948704505985, 79.37370768431398, 88.21672731758773, 89.55659908666098, 3026.134241966019, 1041.865688521676, 83.77981507217928, 844.457442265398, 1633.1650060719096, 330.8667144650191, 91.71892292226387, 1144.568297779032, 46.017351920212086, 147.18674082779617, 224.5357527440889, 372.7403799002184, 274.3739583190381, 233.07648622895536, 92.63718231530727 ], "var": [ 125.77958586046546, 591.9288026790585, 477.2051080004589, 200.88132313250483, 1697.226944259354, 804.0153739078027, 201.15488713649106, 377.44766208125833, 453.9089385408618, 679.2713336406981, 377.06399494108086, 409.9523006610207, 909.7930430380285, 456.51693430875855, 392.2535921696275, 286.4739743940161, 463.2300633430542, 249.25213468853593, 304.03613565486756, 266.53713189350816, 641.5118500901009, 392.9172670468157, 1107.0639993006093, 207.4164860822388 ], "zero": [ 0.12556180810328027, 0.12920039521185897, 0.1618901884907594, 0.15432416032089458, 0.06811682492329113, 0.06057957600855531, 0.22416313617443168, 0.18363047443858582, 0.2080370881700009, 0.09579186288055398, 0.13933972887541912, 0.14028980746811606, 0.10417199820696625, 0.11157600147902177, 0.1294984809018765, 0.24301106170608547, 0.14088413157794502, 0.21524997376669316, 0.2299205000841344, 0.16990123688013195, 0.17332735404906732, 0.10322391595679457, 0.1297099978788953, 0.17552030897843712 ] }, "crps": 7.759361085080035, "crpss": 0.06186456523021033, "rps": 0.47739928792716907, "rpss": -0.05424962687296042, "mean_bias_mm": 0.20025159611850393, "mean_mae_mm": 11.842899857533153, "mean_rmse_mm": 21.875669727210223, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0252687571164574, "zero_fraction": 0.15070500052215816, "correlation": 0.11476804791622423, "pit_histogram": [ 0.06717, 0.04381, 0.07013, 0.10557, 0.13197, 0.1486, 0.15377, 0.11256, 0.07472, 0.0917 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.3049530912442723 } }, "operational": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 3.4367321221989107, 3.13473481945298, 9.807464708345004, 3.7556827738673544, 4.066320113090329, 5.06871982801431, 6.3995312387305905, 2.3594724860834537 ], "crps_clim": [ 3.840649245962226, 2.9635126140043284, 11.660524877797739, 2.9183695971477044, 3.477601142846446, 4.259321637104846, 3.1351156438044105, 3.1728418151724775 ], "rps": [ 0.5182432212327202, 0.48287684345796483, 0.3883231532482527, 0.4610452022778525, 0.4208731097850544, 0.4699442852266065, 0.7299840184210711, 0.38296667965643383 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.524230481898705, 0.4593885401867237, 0.5017173979879027, 0.4051068206667376, 0.4317667103339062, 0.4153152702181896, 0.47288784486408364, 0.4886335324867942 ], "bias": [ 8.24684543339106, 1.8406494795354507, -5.946336226283017, -1.2805665841180343, 0.053657655107339816, -2.089969007710776, 12.949058938971438, 6.023092483816076 ], "mae": [ 8.298400533711765, 5.022564875546332, 11.777971149726008, 4.980033987645538, 6.334793034178255, 6.789259746246242, 14.00163640643257, 6.184634698606862 ], "mse": [ 194.6378786874797, 58.45545335527766, 388.237201642382, 116.8410822766323, 160.31424851427178, 171.8321592498577, 396.46167663197934, 81.42907491821421 ], "var": [ 314.0818620694164, 259.7237596425866, 669.9546025149757, 135.288474794778, 198.8733443526762, 292.2518779877576, 779.216652781531, 308.2355461553674 ], "zero": [ 0.09458161411251984, 0.10086426497091108, 0.05829669217264065, 0.11304325526187912, 0.11425547788941054, 0.08966687680753999, 0.040536462360353784, 0.11399216732855325 ] }, "crps": 4.753582261222867, "crpss": -0.07340877757648245, "rps": 0.4817820641632445, "rpss": -0.04195943752637521, "mean_bias_mm": 2.474554021588692, "mean_mae_mm": 7.923661804011697, "mean_rmse_mm": 14.000932001460184, "spread_error_ratio": 1.3733135233065565, "zero_fraction": 0.09065460136297603, "correlation": 0.2079198198134737, "pit_histogram": [ 0.12348, 0.05304, 0.07949, 0.09149, 0.09675, 0.15547, 0.16121, 0.09343, 0.06978, 0.07586 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.2803254225650648 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 3.7479388504384605, 3.7414088880788325, 10.787046209877207, 4.0090973980627815, 2.4468889117402344, 3.278145283043862, 8.680863474708211, 2.6716824493779994 ], "crps_clim": [ 4.156168553465009, 3.538722242103148, 14.589550778766494, 3.336016465541637, 3.2225107652008003, 2.991934313605765, 3.4730598185838906, 3.692380181189609 ], "rps": [ 0.43355761224092276, 0.5211067437456758, 0.3271388938651862, 0.4109686264611813, 0.3773814405354114, 0.4404840651668805, 0.792400161233953, 0.3425762673042702 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5378222677027902, 0.46540376292499014, 0.544167761935176, 0.42259006334453925, 0.4687251767879638, 0.37920455847261086, 0.47625759961208325, 0.48392303022441024 ], "bias": [ 9.715694012637385, -0.12098849200228096, -5.021526789799549, -0.905016590461702, 4.768045985653524, 2.6038124908632643, 18.962494017097956, 7.266963103419355 ], "mae": [ 9.715694012637385, 4.888500749704677, 11.984760742661766, 5.261709762322192, 5.470760527819802, 6.187309296215291, 18.962494017097956, 7.266963103419355 ], "mse": [ 244.18821976322403, 70.95835404049426, 292.56442570995785, 136.9781392359107, 60.98535370791968, 90.55171198466269, 564.8154225608822, 111.01691058396015 ], "var": [ 404.0315881385521, 253.22346383755385, 1058.3504266073226, 159.2599966146808, 218.0336950760474, 362.58244928524755, 1074.6783816520017, 306.45224040447414 ], "zero": [ 0.17391303543808598, 0.18126902563324596, 0.10415886269641147, 0.19307738969616497, 0.20609541764366301, 0.16431716221507695, 0.0638654196698685, 0.1987979318336568 ] }, "crps": 4.920383933165949, "crpss": -0.009300645016622644, "rps": 0.45570172631918515, "rpss": 0.0350654067107562, "mean_bias_mm": 4.658684717175994, "mean_mae_mm": 8.717274026484803, "mean_rmse_mm": 14.018106762269163, "spread_error_ratio": 1.5622106613549123, "zero_fraction": 0.16068678060327168, "correlation": 0.3432101387327172, "pit_histogram": [ 0.07478, 0.05997, 0.08728, 0.09086, 0.09253, 0.20945, 0.21472, 0.09511, 0.04628, 0.02902 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.44834229532982195 } }, "full": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 2.551258365858052, 3.5679272428963666, 10.682310020553333, 1.9111206039369402, 9.894779307742661, 4.106073346909513, 2.7636540870263517, 5.156168542067256, 3.055885841922726, 18.66648869330581, 16.959823063852124, 3.5629714297513178, 7.4003075300726, 23.84861392394568, 4.33469835222096, 2.168250085699614, 12.84745039542492, 3.3971563208785747, 3.7264199790327757, 4.290460239081687, 4.770923315929877, 3.781900043365853, 7.24131864053381, 3.1176982552836767, 3.4620731585832245, 2.954185085875155, 9.850227934094907, 3.6300695689855838, 3.8407114971283027, 4.980697841597223, 5.946041896080857, 2.2601861479255625 ], "crps_clim": [ 2.8572571807760165, 3.1865323464856155, 10.383599749568983, 2.5619649424777258, 15.714771517105724, 3.3680154534657665, 2.765672743937594, 5.300295600051972, 2.8388059419872405, 21.851414927820926, 17.1664341858879, 3.7370645400554223, 3.942032189422852, 25.551792834412236, 3.6290536020800803, 2.8900168246080717, 14.071028267301827, 3.0762760995886107, 3.6632019409978067, 3.7186259353467004, 3.564689968626687, 2.839593289203478, 7.19932849431782, 3.43605995135926, 3.8609579743608737, 2.8299285708739577, 12.23962820019987, 2.794216883727665, 3.293480646075853, 4.260034824273769, 3.0060012627324424, 3.1366202401449357 ], "rps": [ 0.5152096082808885, 0.41998943682150747, 0.4869535981324357, 0.34921583479106455, 0.34223228772874265, 0.660342190883455, 0.4574191197187874, 0.5364000751771101, 0.46812420170258245, 0.3828851678389896, 0.48242448902815505, 0.48205277650547124, 0.7491549740506157, 0.38759951461405806, 0.5824838729581705, 0.27551072825075046, 0.4191982399797698, 0.4926124826214848, 0.5289186516114839, 0.48853388148030963, 0.6057867273396385, 0.470469151846129, 0.4045242236623153, 0.5039769262569566, 0.49806180477607254, 0.45552651011735024, 0.4044771795467994, 0.4911367890299522, 0.4200198519849217, 0.47425035696690837, 0.7109161521866699, 0.3745947672494937 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.42597328472277496, 0.3506474587875527, 0.4500587082647611, 0.32853144302379395, 0.4793056617036147, 0.4798374907327482, 0.3541533787330895, 0.4731556449679077, 0.3927115296130284, 0.5155155067499355, 0.5115992154696631, 0.4372196861501219, 0.5134082784354855, 0.5544160313927202, 0.4916821403090456, 0.46169725845021364, 0.48685690274881205, 0.4101509392762119, 0.472007224293684, 0.4017865592049955, 0.4940497459609742, 0.37193747436870483, 0.4453370890748853, 0.4489261212476537, 0.5165803609034532, 0.4475995691106898, 0.5228420289369178, 0.41806933442655636, 0.4281627076345683, 0.41613299701643813, 0.4679489278571733, 0.4937218068532966 ], "bias": [ 5.242763787569856, 3.841717555621932, -9.938418565099765, 2.6722494919094437, -0.14412728280638784, 10.650084846016457, 0.12532543837523652, -0.9038976381940064, 2.7005880221243674, -18.838331878846024, -17.37402851947071, 0.5408582434114103, 16.020057925148798, -26.972295772253325, 9.82739931966184, 2.973269210662597, -12.660426916371648, -1.2894025452306295, -0.6024586640625554, -3.250698745191471, 10.59268343426329, 9.087366590636858, 0.7808516255906425, 3.9931702091629186, 7.982294712800844, 1.4402255794278662, -7.1594707313440065, -1.6449055443152365, -0.33461095049922107, -2.6275871095276218, 12.28922926835697, 5.748650819974439 ], "mae": [ 5.648569046764263, 6.121191545715555, 12.567242889092718, 3.504570680019686, 15.147960513350585, 10.650588528379757, 3.7957632565198254, 6.413651576395026, 4.581027838125761, 22.66666296718043, 19.039372091565458, 4.989526131511176, 16.020057925148798, 27.31899907480419, 9.845054126196455, 4.3246461254272575, 15.804558940022709, 4.371665617160629, 5.050686598713351, 5.39596185202892, 10.604237523043603, 9.165115076364058, 10.935349429958583, 6.088717163585122, 8.01793575184891, 4.615395707671794, 11.598573154568637, 4.72438611490243, 5.7825574945812175, 6.483450667960468, 13.040485709183976, 5.826795897287195 ], "mse": [ 72.86384555239893, 132.97719279558513, 719.123348592376, 37.2252859215057, 621.6022089040438, 234.51397492822434, 53.53518095141548, 119.79202773997481, 67.19397957917754, 1797.6640988022034, 630.1028740004854, 82.00396896081061, 672.9274920733734, 1696.0887444521672, 284.4218736340932, 54.326726725352735, 1055.9332139550254, 76.80484158743003, 79.61793286395785, 154.78434714396187, 354.0385846947209, 200.19297806819674, 253.79394601686116, 90.21306155083221, 195.07611421095027, 52.63254993887888, 373.52096933039303, 110.62881424655616, 143.54971988066012, 161.63070172963296, 339.05431178224666, 76.66119467107872 ], "var": [ 150.6588592097195, 373.8640412511132, 292.2396386986725, 133.29291011010204, 893.8384209728569, 467.82039842222457, 188.4863310122234, 311.8053208040459, 315.3565372963119, 564.4641966538053, 283.4348697050843, 301.8432469164284, 636.9240115958216, 282.8533621231762, 336.61997012801856, 245.49389715451164, 382.4290186392497, 192.7646765184992, 191.356429736477, 158.6242070116714, 434.01688092955726, 307.90196434373456, 540.7692817950365, 194.54052728473158, 267.7484062707922, 226.5649816012712, 577.0647824798908, 119.72825413642435, 172.4089530550327, 255.1358932880024, 713.3271203638709, 268.8351971765055 ], "zero": [ 0.06526777415190743, 0.06997699601005093, 0.08180616591858665, 0.08127709496739263, 0.032851368281697886, 0.03639298581035028, 0.11795420821207159, 0.09738400582927502, 0.09968243591484682, 0.05241466779891088, 0.07288530251969681, 0.07304068715118436, 0.055216825714099686, 0.050239026258439234, 0.06846999460592315, 0.12679878444091947, 0.07581433499087746, 0.11850149869810546, 0.11282440105397494, 0.09095138905758778, 0.08759834759431112, 0.05523114099626708, 0.061305602025199066, 0.0868730502395906, 0.0883379299188954, 0.09575652070359994, 0.06964243767678399, 0.1070280711526475, 0.10777069692103773, 0.08481868106264605, 0.03446309883816653, 0.10286481293934659 ] }, "crps": 6.272745336173854, "crpss": 0.019569483330065474, "rps": 0.47878129916059503, "rpss": -0.059395500617991814, "mean_bias_mm": 0.08650391304697358, "mean_mae_mm": 9.379398656721204, "mean_rmse_mm": 18.5358572310574, "spread_error_ratio": 0.9902988626629176, "zero_fraction": 0.08004501054544969, "correlation": 0.03205135551640873, "pit_histogram": [ 0.12768, 0.04335, 0.06649, 0.09024, 0.11089, 0.13479, 0.14223, 0.10837, 0.07855, 0.0974 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.2479094365077722 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 2.2729780976219662, 4.596525960968261, 3.6010574369146484, 2.133621662704483, 14.724180146644336, 4.667765001768685, 3.4360954477045076, 4.433836533661121, 3.1232251822852892, 27.124302150795447, 26.402188175557406, 3.65126439156573, 7.716515511387854, 24.727901364275816, 4.779536096832386, 2.00316543500003, 14.166144676539748, 2.4201231619898813, 6.6268490283538775, 5.2980890729070325, 4.014150960472119, 4.1230705158537955, 5.624765863464186, 3.5767496950571958, 3.5718118314977523, 3.74413156869252, 11.162920365657289, 4.040221242128004, 2.258118217568717, 3.123240797452647, 8.148894390924516, 2.5779105427089517 ], "crps_clim": [ 2.8175577367545985, 3.9021745191382493, 3.3034198610233836, 3.0658976041547716, 27.95661134379484, 3.362418886433096, 3.1100028100913844, 4.094088898027647, 2.797475683019447, 31.07358038415444, 26.285415911798307, 3.5258493082035396, 4.105091866216406, 26.621986127319055, 3.742042717578652, 3.517340209583741, 15.411353025851831, 2.673910822235419, 5.68084916383337, 4.795224659874851, 3.5512909190087862, 2.905159579919633, 5.944050077935008, 4.117186323773333, 4.037389747963682, 3.4488650528891722, 15.716463704166275, 3.2680339255822792, 3.0328683611021146, 2.8141009404740527, 3.4247012737105678, 3.5844382254089533 ], "rps": [ 0.49657940550526924, 0.4385952544855625, 0.47075266037675545, 0.3979450953176705, 0.11032309178180909, 0.7031281973937502, 0.5206799896858852, 0.5372986787535129, 0.6304308890285487, 0.3559039295042081, 0.5457220935356416, 0.5154144050121205, 0.7301277550948317, 0.3729856475932564, 0.6203730094566084, 0.24095816364432115, 0.39507279005967144, 0.36153195054016274, 0.6889868387341386, 0.5285595301483963, 0.4194902126787675, 0.549514693643404, 0.43059000286012017, 0.4890065064632897, 0.39938132833178625, 0.521239025405694, 0.3585768904395421, 0.45470812295298907, 0.36396010142834634, 0.41820209902358824, 0.7751018664663535, 0.333788479199534 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4298711247134212, 0.33951771473196274, 0.3580324977963315, 0.3440075796304816, 0.5614000118944327, 0.42739667374627904, 0.31854005006647745, 0.4274262614020923, 0.4024604048415598, 0.5070497366915091, 0.5496038326833845, 0.44190671299078577, 0.5231727861116291, 0.5620037572257898, 0.5267904535413438, 0.5284018227909777, 0.48322502696648467, 0.40592076688279005, 0.44404886379291797, 0.4240421871939146, 0.4646575370925135, 0.37305364252256173, 0.4173925133581936, 0.4446715007416715, 0.5288605928241447, 0.4618809475548823, 0.5613869457241275, 0.4470539791818982, 0.45697580457229925, 0.3508328348614358, 0.47125617734541536, 0.4764068519243777 ], "bias": [ 4.644743207445053, 4.518183146842799, 0.7335630299184552, 4.8736464143346945, -10.449009297795952, 12.951111725042963, -1.624823777048664, -0.9170372314104425, 3.3988248882141927, -28.91219405745737, -29.136414221342253, 2.3104736554662644, 17.9175194267969, -28.124153479474106, 10.65219489775628, 5.302092064240035, -14.900364489840051, 0.9031877893666177, -5.392841885812606, -4.224451025427184, 10.333600407762665, 10.084296459812943, 8.107014626854712, 2.3628824212784427, 9.045995225111328, -0.9117806746087075, -7.07040060412181, -1.6126697397834697, 4.166385274003804, 1.7382224332168739, 17.742216213132455, 6.665656568050526 ], "mae": [ 4.729997330359457, 7.962964345206833, 4.251077366047161, 5.187616915035698, 19.304221914953207, 12.951111725042963, 4.294787365476157, 5.4230123742139185, 4.604365622952877, 33.316146724073, 29.18906537560622, 5.34860352984819, 17.9175194267969, 28.417707136954732, 10.697465950834756, 5.316301634014088, 18.740902035761284, 4.010463392807605, 7.606893725161373, 6.204816116211874, 10.333600407762665, 10.084296459812943, 10.515556071462319, 6.3456164590117545, 9.045995225111328, 4.717952102381081, 12.172259920756767, 5.183440249692661, 4.8801816440285295, 5.555637568721947, 17.742216213132455, 6.665656568050526 ], "mse": [ 48.8511382166111, 167.1897261280135, 82.75114556398013, 58.78080297420662, 921.9054475192046, 283.21288223047617, 81.91753121194391, 92.57675392806752, 72.09224785104178, 3189.174140244322, 1085.3704809035094, 72.74763568648794, 701.6391443055252, 1722.888386825129, 270.58119651507883, 75.35793935398385, 1225.5865453443844, 40.39446340235024, 156.56539528879398, 227.5600424936236, 311.5869571632524, 224.47339605016614, 176.28629920698285, 89.00422780651049, 225.56988871627365, 71.26662752923065, 302.5401916033877, 139.7342019897112, 52.323967745944714, 83.77728363981034, 485.32412368654724, 101.75011234511013 ], "var": [ 106.08779879653234, 485.5276028408106, 395.25739655507346, 167.85833512705756, 1353.9902393192492, 662.3702646942522, 167.88883384223084, 310.8903221081575, 377.3155002051949, 569.3266548639373, 311.60386188507664, 338.070218105077, 748.4847029767847, 379.7602560265662, 326.1668170453738, 239.02241287411266, 383.8270521506317, 210.34562099117812, 253.31360351443396, 223.36643904437375, 531.826542825444, 326.0444983725275, 887.9121469493224, 175.75085669388776, 337.5099631598529, 213.1705049174999, 912.5087838774867, 136.03900284656328, 182.30042495333126, 310.46492457488927, 990.6280671461193, 257.9123866187441 ], "zero": [ 0.1295737708204094, 0.13523475960805567, 0.16492020654295783, 0.15826839789758995, 0.06908088161638852, 0.06201616921282194, 0.2263629438670605, 0.18610980035075417, 0.21329955437493392, 0.09834287068515671, 0.14405001365725387, 0.14694093168314665, 0.10971699954525607, 0.10816475615588346, 0.13233208947795275, 0.2494527822233533, 0.14460794506191374, 0.21425177002251847, 0.23134099011344939, 0.17626984926874595, 0.17935241097249494, 0.10605362951517505, 0.12983343253999188, 0.17661339843534174, 0.16939739365399747, 0.18361192932644604, 0.1335648193251395, 0.19221178691479826, 0.20740398236122454, 0.1644008194002119, 0.06021151830038539, 0.1934328556242605 ] }, "crps": 6.995979703967381, "crpss": 0.05812475424885344, "rps": 0.474216522017048, "rpss": -0.04949642825635148, "mean_bias_mm": 0.16173966845391852, "mean_mae_mm": 10.584920278040103, "mean_rmse_mm": 20.031834292156745, "spread_error_ratio": 1.01667313240249, "zero_fraction": 0.1561382955798459, "correlation": 0.13961699583012263, "pit_histogram": [ 0.05029, 0.0408, 0.06639, 0.09946, 0.11679, 0.1677, 0.18126, 0.12026, 0.07268, 0.08436 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.3720202412069513 } }, "distribution_full": { "ethiopia": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0024494982937664, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.021973920839854354 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0105547699407378, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.02041998992151458 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.7154328583524903, "area_mean_abs_log": 3.209932328108261 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0138357457104956, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.791656436140093 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0665264084090404, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.28176526200712 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": 0.07445232491015899 } }, "ondj_domain": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0072772264238419, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.04365514308362253 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0088503335192205, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.0215977179753555 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.3718145686605474, "area_mean_abs_log": 5.57867128132628 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9498267211621274, "area_mean_abs_log": 1.697144246044585 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.1662055128755586, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.3767914653465271 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": 0.15613829557984568 } } } }, "sqrt_mvs": { "training": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 2.7672988956684104, 3.740296873912911, 10.38711142591616, 1.9690089817946654, 10.16555956592831, 4.362729495386606, 2.772481428592011, 4.752050943917202, 3.2263775987989916, 17.688175745050064, 16.358832118088536, 3.661737582228969, 7.885662835288217, 23.283332317423515, 4.588663933425641, 2.4270192101661228, 12.318122565644169, 3.4473805334654886, 3.7013972528539916, 4.415570940578824, 5.126173055639844, 4.155401830388512, 7.651404802603549, 3.063891440893355 ], "crps_clim": [ 3.069144896531585, 3.3858676721658623, 10.074246020518368, 2.773361990265274, 15.332066536235006, 3.604951743610606, 2.9367188887863067, 5.050819710999868, 3.0258348712866763, 21.012210746646392, 16.801010670653753, 3.7894449827302754, 4.194423053287697, 25.04733364035127, 3.8894382629868667, 3.276619104881488, 13.516550290161696, 3.1815721446141088, 3.8044427745910094, 3.8505600739044343, 3.8413777807512575, 3.029724174279054, 7.270640397516081, 3.55202677848655 ], "rps": [ 0.5513280339133543, 0.4026608728872917, 0.4411746584695985, 0.3637317414609765, 0.38478768073992664, 0.7243050224602181, 0.4534233160152375, 0.4688088519284084, 0.4000870425340996, 0.3299710744137545, 0.3952255681922725, 0.4326580202362381, 0.7672468678602187, 0.33198471328876705, 0.5748521287651327, 0.29552905625355524, 0.41677989902855095, 0.456021776352872, 0.4765075645009205, 0.48286730793899235, 0.6349163285784957, 0.5164809746651272, 0.44170288657416934, 0.4645917766454331 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4625629239522452, 0.36451731789334524, 0.44125991446339186, 0.36766510384083156, 0.4796288408201259, 0.5018388021804165, 0.38147740265907437, 0.45785739893807914, 0.37358783510004456, 0.5052606258044735, 0.5036552005735562, 0.4358799343390295, 0.5001476339830571, 0.5372757885017574, 0.4967176371371437, 0.4833984207814198, 0.48412488996957304, 0.42298688095193837, 0.47887418976886764, 0.4007717998366474, 0.49873748259985246, 0.40202165211061897, 0.4457035075298269, 0.452337281302436 ], "bias": [ 5.799659296578478, 4.512803812830984, -9.437969454459468, 3.00804362605178, 0.7726620832054397, 11.25767381761064, 0.26193075784547876, -0.4938144932633702, 3.3234248850261077, -18.390372170718805, -16.911888505908312, 1.2896314938771074, 16.863781560945736, -26.44927200942811, 10.474894472105627, 3.1987281320266674, -12.151219873027005, -1.1136073433520783, -0.3387707625243107, -2.8045159037313216, 11.328638116257517, 9.882507743089043, 1.8111462190599767, 4.572052961189277 ], "mae": [ 6.267860499519511, 6.754190564634372, 12.568206667947441, 3.811180898173242, 15.547828267409496, 11.259126367955853, 3.8534839476250857, 5.981296513663012, 5.274199672002375, 21.804333229470046, 18.487449953489087, 5.423903717914548, 16.863781560945736, 26.959377826308657, 10.485540056070969, 4.919369077824685, 15.52485518737157, 4.526412007347286, 5.197470429807376, 5.765268305572197, 11.354133756710265, 9.946385179471013, 11.690296960008684, 6.322729949028085 ], "mse": [ 79.66417914108852, 161.66615124861096, 721.2453076631078, 40.51510999242875, 625.9953570060889, 254.8716503681893, 50.459594997767866, 104.87316382832448, 81.56802012077954, 1699.6010952033157, 596.5726645368435, 92.42591644615554, 732.6395577638104, 1666.4334185167043, 303.04257839050257, 68.90102800166746, 1002.1173654645564, 84.4428093356327, 79.00076116993, 165.19181178749633, 381.67539306851654, 224.65837653519966, 292.72328803851656, 90.35916780119013 ], "var": [ 162.0415524621359, 416.3673353097843, 320.2810890176521, 147.63268495197812, 892.8189954169384, 491.75536593615794, 209.01415016199886, 342.06184064138216, 347.789260529004, 573.1905401731185, 301.9811360040193, 329.8335681197426, 649.5596715492219, 290.87828050409786, 357.18258558071227, 271.6673996834873, 402.8210086559914, 210.09024800413783, 216.0474369531694, 174.35402810685156, 451.208349273582, 337.2702525912895, 583.1902328641837, 205.46431989600558 ], "zero": [ 0.02830360662101614, 0.023563064883583784, 0.03198896503925682, 0.02990372259151102, 0.015154760474286943, 0.011386252194965791, 0.049721739705809606, 0.0374234014718864, 0.03928683068962684, 0.02186789754566075, 0.021597395202130727, 0.023374161118012687, 0.018652603006294725, 0.020803361272873366, 0.024944717006256507, 0.0534830003743811, 0.025480418908588463, 0.04035333025820697, 0.039563285043690936, 0.0357610267951699, 0.02771620242833222, 0.021051467635617105, 0.02700101652359324, 0.029844203793561085 ] }, "crps": 6.829820057235587, "crpss": 0.031862816697808216, "rps": 0.4669851318209837, "rpss": -0.030276334344725875, "mean_bias_mm": 0.01108951922029533, "mean_mae_mm": 10.27452835817794, "mean_rmse_mm": 20.000670578785627, "spread_error_ratio": 0.9510914233482133, "zero_fraction": 0.029092767941013047, "correlation": 0.013588353682176377, "pit_histogram": [ 0.04569, 0.07903, 0.10939, 0.13122, 0.13242, 0.14136, 0.1153, 0.08115, 0.06726, 0.09718 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.2593842072564475 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 2.703223872622716, 4.870140460613192, 3.678503188469245, 2.278886202742911, 14.457363246188931, 5.387139508451198, 3.27838091796728, 4.206731260277686, 3.0975250773804244, 25.902668617789434, 25.606709214989117, 3.7115985443312765, 8.67135084526904, 23.626857548429115, 5.5849255380047484, 2.065230219135151, 13.426794407941717, 2.519185918860466, 6.3131194146710445, 4.992518557752248, 4.589185986286082, 4.908782243829527, 6.030785393534116, 3.3028021302441375 ], "crps_clim": [ 3.134642569756797, 4.0368873592733205, 3.423335292543674, 3.3738802296500032, 27.106814106125587, 3.7253738930894196, 3.249450552047323, 4.035569151257637, 2.965809999169824, 30.070724508266622, 25.830159399346183, 3.580613889817456, 4.549159240055732, 25.77593644509466, 4.188541565312743, 3.9517287715065783, 14.718801138616833, 2.963090816144978, 5.6582471562161265, 4.848776670389135, 3.9672709222205658, 3.261152428150299, 5.930891894544658, 4.158239602390194 ], "rps": [ 0.5820601157799963, 0.436126469241845, 0.43017815086487454, 0.41278922091063497, 0.08961946357129486, 0.8730823978515145, 0.4722779184452595, 0.46701888648238105, 0.4958046971921805, 0.3360838177155073, 0.4089500150297247, 0.4401607092503439, 0.7980196301982383, 0.2825661082583927, 0.6713146126930458, 0.23129365834923876, 0.4158002954095265, 0.34337987465477743, 0.6049399305517951, 0.4313617456249032, 0.4693979560266037, 0.6580150300665293, 0.4564524895005528, 0.40678222827312205 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4612583063145251, 0.36325581037926996, 0.3548837655357383, 0.3845191261452081, 0.5442138131835412, 0.47392048479376536, 0.3369486554725916, 0.41421918051654527, 0.37845219279141734, 0.4951720255695432, 0.5339101560355515, 0.4478677807232184, 0.5122698437472656, 0.5463196106078548, 0.5151171353423272, 0.5367285502205256, 0.4864254375606979, 0.45042529314649876, 0.45228609712142287, 0.40382417088714717, 0.4727414090541605, 0.43354624566717376, 0.435070354227705, 0.43462262504974214 ], "bias": [ 5.612793956350158, 5.835557649409374, 1.7509417974339392, 5.655867501835317, -9.646744022096106, 14.090579579734518, -1.0411886621658206, -0.03222690957049691, 4.267416943605679, -28.043429667387365, -28.31386381450218, 3.53883583746576, 19.258654711294973, -27.123711387006907, 12.06540885748019, 5.934235967720791, -13.84407570649911, 1.536802375420424, -4.799741118934075, -3.428445988917382, 11.412824206435698, 11.465769691702693, 9.551091819555984, 3.410463857990351 ], "mae": [ 5.653588477636418, 8.930500184221815, 4.689867204571989, 5.801685992142186, 19.104821260792345, 14.090579579734518, 4.171834053657143, 5.288055919928745, 5.106019074744448, 32.3243900949412, 28.378962263723732, 5.838826283299761, 19.258654711294973, 27.449058318718464, 12.092706624567104, 5.9342902013364185, 18.309737002164958, 4.447533555290633, 7.243755881225975, 6.133103176479019, 11.412824206435698, 11.465769691702693, 11.2102610343249, 6.367369918340987 ], "mse": [ 63.31397286794861, 219.15861678348625, 88.06813787093992, 68.04550666052062, 898.9503489039995, 335.3058407113693, 75.70332821008918, 87.53468795964649, 87.68588140078428, 3033.525336001385, 1034.3129080818828, 84.66800013491842, 812.8351501969887, 1638.0185410262447, 336.6235205252646, 88.31174549977935, 1145.4385688467353, 45.30101155206228, 143.602355831541, 218.84089039123648, 366.7073021468317, 278.31792072877636, 207.60973453952033, 93.99730188505748 ], "var": [ 124.20655964321837, 559.9074487611944, 452.59222590954795, 189.4103725354457, 1320.1190643984964, 688.6040444920886, 198.6818241006895, 354.37621936572214, 429.9474143016021, 590.1260946294585, 339.98790129840364, 381.7298510956239, 780.9424604558319, 384.8566656942438, 375.28915895168353, 281.31468494157144, 403.69230792163086, 225.79381732354398, 290.7220242082246, 245.01068219846826, 574.0438843975933, 372.56581856642663, 950.6667866497557, 187.0353577447277 ], "zero": [ 0.043773885574582366, 0.03611022855812061, 0.06010241394014915, 0.05517213132822441, 0.019821806323070887, 0.009742125563680322, 0.08639692331862343, 0.07047825817224754, 0.07556337062378826, 0.02923144095661893, 0.036325878634654356, 0.034840033505741594, 0.0325571286564677, 0.028114394669898263, 0.036044463438939835, 0.10311291352538599, 0.04062662428778678, 0.06358214580545658, 0.07209968473788099, 0.05899793138178463, 0.052881968744265734, 0.030687595633296774, 0.041042700239055756, 0.050655824310246886 ] }, "crps": 7.717100346490867, "crpss": 0.06697404472669555, "rps": 0.46722814258092843, "rpss": -0.03178849955812302, "mean_bias_mm": -0.036924271818482936, "mean_mae_mm": 11.696008112969837, "mean_rmse_mm": 21.84402722404629, "spread_error_ratio": 0.9666883551169301, "zero_fraction": 0.048665077997081994, "correlation": 0.10752280043836802, "pit_histogram": [ 0.02463, 0.07394, 0.11135, 0.13267, 0.13556, 0.16183, 0.13351, 0.07041, 0.05902, 0.09708 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.3498221672629137 } }, "operational": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 3.4886741916986095, 3.1553511072717377, 9.652123299511183, 3.6919991762108113, 4.094845067785321, 5.029180058096557, 6.399391978593614, 2.288397498928482 ], "crps_clim": [ 3.840649245962226, 2.9635126140043284, 11.660524877797739, 2.9183695971477044, 3.477601142846446, 4.259321637104846, 3.1351156438044105, 3.1728418151724775 ], "rps": [ 0.5244899861327951, 0.4720902829057956, 0.34003829999072865, 0.45440828080503637, 0.4517851048442374, 0.461920728096126, 0.750166338202756, 0.368042600663028 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.524230481898705, 0.4593885401867237, 0.5017173979879027, 0.4051068206667376, 0.4317667103339062, 0.4153152702181896, 0.47288784486408364, 0.4886335324867942 ], "bias": [ 8.272456104197435, 1.8789748490579516, -6.1823215552064426, -1.3439540806746786, -0.0016537083168519685, -2.1404280515670555, 12.319026014661581, 5.829656176758307 ], "mae": [ 8.326477750846015, 5.076915275877251, 11.815563886020302, 4.862528570705735, 6.328125266672961, 6.781260280170183, 13.373361480315463, 6.0068456153784995 ], "mse": [ 194.90759888653534, 59.20342051228968, 388.0285018099574, 115.63403998472728, 161.2553322755014, 172.70021424125247, 361.1745292383028, 79.86625894352055 ], "var": [ 293.4208825178287, 248.20639710055255, 595.379609963071, 131.95804688526763, 186.7907580134226, 266.5780828282638, 676.2303099195987, 289.11558415576695 ], "zero": [ 0.03562455823434658, 0.03622775837032903, 0.01719870991125552, 0.04174617465802731, 0.03971271492301734, 0.029322002510947645, 0.01605663549506913, 0.04675787244010123 ] }, "crps": 4.72499529726204, "crpss": -0.06695354100886686, "rps": 0.4778677027050629, "rpss": -0.0334937718932522, "mean_bias_mm": 2.3289694686137805, "mean_mae_mm": 7.821384765748301, "mean_rmse_mm": 13.841829250012834, "spread_error_ratio": 1.3241899033934263, "zero_fraction": 0.03283080331788672, "correlation": 0.219894214325585, "pit_histogram": [ 0.02736, 0.07311, 0.10427, 0.13156, 0.15004, 0.18576, 0.11969, 0.07971, 0.06094, 0.06757 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.3826338412801009 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 3.8782790010092505, 3.683618543059297, 10.682792753088673, 3.8737001732111103, 2.4124692356129884, 3.341172075317142, 8.563707410714303, 2.642337809826618 ], "crps_clim": [ 4.156168553465009, 3.538722242103148, 14.589550778766494, 3.336016465541637, 3.2225107652008003, 2.991934313605765, 3.4730598185838906, 3.692380181189609 ], "rps": [ 0.49065331911458054, 0.46748430955733566, 0.24203177323988095, 0.43137729660936486, 0.39121278685148814, 0.4345004922539623, 0.8343501204840249, 0.3743293717884004 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5378222677027902, 0.46540376292499014, 0.544167761935176, 0.42259006334453925, 0.4687251767879638, 0.37920455847261086, 0.47625759961208325, 0.48392303022441024 ], "bias": [ 9.711701124755912, 0.022893190997200333, -5.620177406011627, -0.9215667699263949, 4.7815623238583935, 2.5475684043398648, 17.784896809155356, 7.100457162884184 ], "mae": [ 9.711701124755912, 4.967462440188091, 12.167370573945457, 5.126834681435679, 5.3940860915023325, 6.0953674693919115, 17.784896809155356, 7.100457162884184 ], "mse": [ 245.27903743810367, 72.22528439495092, 299.07831003486893, 135.826493610517, 58.50873245264021, 88.60305888046747, 511.86856598119743, 110.05334451161703 ], "var": [ 370.6128563067298, 241.27722741893828, 920.1810769172006, 153.14775419152875, 202.08133196824988, 331.9894485922221, 915.7859643323352, 287.5867672660489 ], "zero": [ 0.05613022193131266, 0.05910797887563904, 0.021414383500085014, 0.06541618881399083, 0.06384307989403724, 0.047468632108178296, 0.01626593442623962, 0.07668593629442877 ] }, "crps": 4.884759625229923, "crpss": -0.0019931589613693124, "rps": 0.4582424337373797, "rpss": 0.029685535760859083, "mean_bias_mm": 4.425916855006611, "mean_mae_mm": 8.543522044157365, "mean_rmse_mm": 13.790589306227828, "spread_error_ratio": 1.4998720601841518, "zero_fraction": 0.050791544480488934, "correlation": 0.35083751199861274, "pit_histogram": [ 0.03219, 0.07919, 0.11155, 0.11979, 0.15401, 0.25634, 0.11636, 0.05965, 0.03514, 0.03577 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.5161079219616045 } }, "full": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 2.6336974355661997, 3.534433558522334, 10.452847545361715, 1.8890581041223093, 10.153510898744088, 4.174621366390697, 2.711840759984583, 4.914826304224188, 2.9794728942835267, 18.52561000042798, 16.749706210630986, 3.4754807580701517, 7.514915081835824, 23.589477727755693, 4.431677200378063, 2.159065929591016, 12.74625126045164, 3.3388414080257593, 3.6430309347159935, 4.174445297111773, 4.96244030978315, 3.920412611969487, 7.060870295022744, 3.048082448110008, 3.551642299790988, 2.9890204716832574, 9.644925505682812, 3.544438570557175, 3.833870398502197, 4.868469305360893, 5.936915946393301, 2.1907274354560866 ], "crps_clim": [ 2.8572571807760165, 3.1865323464856155, 10.383599749568983, 2.5619649424777258, 15.714771517105724, 3.3680154534657665, 2.765672743937594, 5.300295600051972, 2.8388059419872405, 21.851414927820926, 17.1664341858879, 3.7370645400554223, 3.942032189422852, 25.551792834412236, 3.6290536020800803, 2.8900168246080717, 14.071028267301827, 3.0762760995886107, 3.6632019409978067, 3.7186259353467004, 3.564689968626687, 2.839593289203478, 7.19932849431782, 3.43605995135926, 3.8609579743608737, 2.8299285708739577, 12.23962820019987, 2.794216883727665, 3.293480646075853, 4.260034824273769, 3.0060012627324424, 3.1366202401449357 ], "rps": [ 0.5234299672514166, 0.4056852317797371, 0.4401066286568982, 0.35916606161809794, 0.34902084565483926, 0.6915339169747251, 0.4536447289697999, 0.4795550830140274, 0.41359183780297454, 0.3225241216245153, 0.3856489701740505, 0.417885662648321, 0.7714414507099047, 0.32182160698074624, 0.5827282947878155, 0.29836938981220534, 0.40972779302413564, 0.48680400528328266, 0.4819395640737971, 0.4706855357481217, 0.6447579197849728, 0.48982457832695103, 0.40470914277185205, 0.4622215083941361, 0.5172942673903083, 0.4557437187831354, 0.32716074598258266, 0.4735876698560931, 0.4516857632966542, 0.4522150315496152, 0.7415138621369258, 0.36648504425226575 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.42597328472277496, 0.3506474587875527, 0.4500587082647611, 0.32853144302379395, 0.4793056617036147, 0.4798374907327482, 0.3541533787330895, 0.4731556449679077, 0.3927115296130284, 0.5155155067499355, 0.5115992154696631, 0.4372196861501219, 0.5134082784354855, 0.5544160313927202, 0.4916821403090456, 0.46169725845021364, 0.48685690274881205, 0.4101509392762119, 0.472007224293684, 0.4017865592049955, 0.4940497459609742, 0.37193747436870483, 0.4453370890748853, 0.4489261212476537, 0.5165803609034532, 0.4475995691106898, 0.5228420289369178, 0.41806933442655636, 0.4281627076345683, 0.41613299701643813, 0.4679489278571733, 0.4937218068532966 ], "bias": [ 5.414873651092973, 3.9587916910812404, -9.815203242528415, 2.8406557405085286, -1.3137157513839564, 10.391887112987437, 0.12862503126854483, -0.9975920474990336, 2.8286576345127985, -19.126928085633356, -17.147636945956883, 0.7330337717681675, 15.549750753345315, -26.86040814321764, 9.879255553851678, 2.968694990810381, -12.753980567007758, -1.3419720441117597, -0.5446668585937048, -3.132477808463749, 10.599654645568528, 9.031364914714091, 0.4425214214935709, 4.1233189451778385, 8.060528054845287, 1.5223223285185834, -7.490891211253619, -1.6467955943832728, -0.34871555623847245, -2.6256482842074127, 11.595070760799356, 5.578743686933271 ], "mae": [ 5.812348469995902, 6.198334834353234, 12.493530090113236, 3.5738312750151033, 15.104962259728653, 10.392767339173194, 3.7400632757779455, 6.403176663107684, 4.6565533831644625, 22.731822058923914, 18.974284631347512, 5.043520189314792, 15.549750753345315, 27.205017648449225, 9.886199651157181, 4.325149646667865, 15.811258290038348, 4.363970300174056, 5.066309942436162, 5.394406925057625, 10.611921046110721, 9.097355929418077, 10.509240416199871, 6.039593247730529, 8.09598504344324, 4.66917536228198, 11.64255716807817, 4.634280574428105, 5.80338244926245, 6.463592341154182, 12.339284695777753, 5.671147257032378 ], "mse": [ 75.99401210551392, 134.78523670715919, 713.4974146682616, 37.87346414426541, 638.6065943092353, 228.7619757142582, 51.66654993427949, 121.29126922742859, 67.67496804815258, 1815.2472759758205, 622.3810698064925, 82.288502231156, 656.4674737874456, 1688.009309632843, 288.70570649344563, 54.00215178600136, 1056.5170503303505, 76.88145432818713, 78.57679194139413, 152.21510241035674, 354.95132881492543, 200.84903476086126, 240.37103712118395, 91.15045404423097, 196.12754713433932, 53.28056899813343, 373.7594547711848, 109.71660862696766, 144.07788796684588, 161.42223504107693, 302.1764456863539, 74.68012688351715 ], "var": [ 141.35476555616768, 357.11416881937, 270.2589804026947, 132.998147380647, 708.139199025994, 394.2621944594612, 188.98444067519384, 286.74781074168067, 298.0303641776219, 484.9489482497018, 263.8031176568437, 281.6910781006794, 518.3422889198871, 247.9361033281071, 315.3539213896753, 237.80394472912113, 337.78648666500726, 179.99658618678092, 187.86926895141266, 148.94950706177494, 367.63892027690133, 275.98577414044337, 460.72944071880715, 174.50445423350442, 250.76086696455135, 217.34883467862366, 487.54723469279196, 117.25194356776261, 161.6753829283504, 228.75496517961523, 597.2458689813286, 253.52574461991048 ], "zero": [ 0.02544245101064959, 0.02067925413952702, 0.028693557690903912, 0.02674404906082906, 0.012976490855812199, 0.009826305255528123, 0.04364709113551945, 0.03305229872992957, 0.03566135611992976, 0.018293053290275363, 0.019734716049955223, 0.020811291888179845, 0.016116218260345795, 0.01805063428015321, 0.023191874691393537, 0.04778004049348261, 0.02215692493193523, 0.033596030200891705, 0.034612055657490357, 0.03163762268802141, 0.02488013044407878, 0.018791483729242112, 0.02363130225616555, 0.0259042517560548, 0.031053852304319632, 0.032032354192269505, 0.01647515975702965, 0.036763108802020494, 0.034812448830223185, 0.025548050421781227, 0.013946761353793774, 0.0415231475876586 ] }, "crps": 6.229519571078332, "crpss": 0.026325673313047582, "rps": 0.46414093590984074, "rpss": -0.02700088749827656, "mean_bias_mm": 0.015659954649954955, "mean_mae_mm": 9.32202416119559, "mean_rmse_mm": 18.49324716571537, "spread_error_ratio": 0.9353818866530857, "zero_fraction": 0.026502042745793444, "correlation": 0.046961130523714895, "pit_histogram": [ 0.04404, 0.0726, 0.10266, 0.12848, 0.13983, 0.15325, 0.11732, 0.08166, 0.06691, 0.09323 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.28309968112090683 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 2.4485688816730944, 4.5434371957215065, 3.51568378661757, 2.119799874608362, 15.047502880748684, 4.794431177210433, 3.2921132862730014, 4.217287735272535, 2.9629500080646727, 27.000987746132164, 26.171544862431723, 3.5260786593731015, 7.824878211097672, 24.518288992627028, 4.988627336652564, 1.8914978905915247, 14.090084485833644, 2.3982761158685393, 6.413983127998528, 5.014532378544969, 4.183415842414698, 4.379432491757982, 5.427342467847249, 3.326721769433293, 3.765957986224779, 3.668083147073824, 11.02452908943442, 3.8758861926652055, 2.2238667228451345, 3.158978322952652, 8.005247886643787, 2.536038550795256 ], "crps_clim": [ 2.8175577367545985, 3.9021745191382493, 3.3034198610233836, 3.0658976041547716, 27.95661134379484, 3.362418886433096, 3.1100028100913844, 4.094088898027647, 2.797475683019447, 31.07358038415444, 26.285415911798307, 3.5258493082035396, 4.105091866216406, 26.621986127319055, 3.742042717578652, 3.517340209583741, 15.411353025851831, 2.673910822235419, 5.68084916383337, 4.795224659874851, 3.5512909190087862, 2.905159579919633, 5.944050077935008, 4.117186323773333, 4.037389747963682, 3.4488650528891722, 15.716463704166275, 3.2680339255822792, 3.0328683611021146, 2.8141009404740527, 3.4247012737105678, 3.5844382254089533 ], "rps": [ 0.5638534789398411, 0.42230082363749993, 0.43937776945142704, 0.40862187373999487, 0.087197906262231, 0.7916161733244098, 0.48726083019161753, 0.4779605840418773, 0.5317324847445294, 0.3126947936507272, 0.39667033029912624, 0.41897055605202, 0.7927540499394755, 0.27776978080201625, 0.6801371101594106, 0.25712722477101685, 0.41337722418424877, 0.38816581357344054, 0.628339318396715, 0.4580911610392188, 0.4726882349823981, 0.6017492356308587, 0.42852620194896685, 0.4102345153888753, 0.4863236355273715, 0.4724222647460499, 0.2309339964317509, 0.46326977455663804, 0.3919666732233921, 0.4128084956398398, 0.8225879161366572, 0.37333527631418206 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4298711247134212, 0.33951771473196274, 0.3580324977963315, 0.3440075796304816, 0.5614000118944327, 0.42739667374627904, 0.31854005006647745, 0.4274262614020923, 0.4024604048415598, 0.5070497366915091, 0.5496038326833845, 0.44190671299078577, 0.5231727861116291, 0.5620037572257898, 0.5267904535413438, 0.5284018227909777, 0.48322502696648467, 0.40592076688279005, 0.44404886379291797, 0.4240421871939146, 0.4646575370925135, 0.37305364252256173, 0.4173925133581936, 0.4446715007416715, 0.5288605928241447, 0.4618809475548823, 0.5613869457241275, 0.4470539791818982, 0.45697580457229925, 0.3508328348614358, 0.47125617734541536, 0.4764068519243777 ], "bias": [ 4.909794309881365, 4.464337842319455, 0.7621417531160604, 4.929949523224431, -12.863144654711698, 12.489828180375907, -1.5475158178234638, -0.9407996240964845, 3.338598263767625, -29.302921596594523, -29.03172356625325, 2.460842689639522, 17.19418435444249, -28.10530941041158, 10.770070731959823, 5.270940210245824, -14.91718459808282, 0.9391346810330228, -5.403547268594641, -4.171257229431197, 10.190669156228813, 10.15424002297103, 7.156873944489661, 2.5946101705892026, 9.110473813477501, -0.6935571314435721, -7.909863541185447, -1.546354385173431, 4.206426135658678, 1.7318129301022172, 16.496264028498945, 6.5605045267823066 ], "mae": [ 4.964312422064333, 7.976255369342221, 4.220942069219143, 5.174040659362338, 19.3575115933129, 12.489828180375907, 4.1386484201985025, 5.299572018215124, 4.5562168041681135, 33.17239253588763, 29.0774387966231, 5.360842559375656, 17.19418435444249, 28.33287733729488, 10.78787702154352, 5.27115185241925, 18.67513903842265, 4.0210239853541525, 7.463143693012294, 6.055875646959151, 10.190669156228813, 10.15424002297103, 9.708732367749585, 6.173601803581979, 9.110473813477501, 4.780589035864926, 12.430915387329678, 5.079674444232375, 4.841467362942724, 5.508436921761324, 16.496264028498945, 6.5605045267823066 ], "mse": [ 53.124512175430155, 172.12012835039758, 80.58675319585326, 59.00064344942401, 968.2566757707572, 272.86394789384235, 78.45563350594728, 91.70013540209024, 71.44733638194815, 3193.9034318500603, 1075.3151826238602, 74.03485507524208, 674.823564949401, 1715.3268815603105, 276.37793794104374, 73.68953008915098, 1222.0102621359194, 40.23986343853578, 152.3158420879855, 221.2054108512805, 308.30381569296304, 229.17231360279996, 156.3899937885385, 89.74452445619936, 228.34178394906354, 72.38064167358351, 311.6109494323608, 138.86669477888626, 49.72427069749054, 82.47457644362348, 431.918546586891, 100.89154875262818 ], "var": [ 104.09877324886288, 450.86745936901065, 369.82179156577774, 157.37073993888632, 1035.1329815339202, 549.3660175109718, 164.22808259293907, 291.65814978493586, 353.02746940395184, 495.8411913027099, 279.71736710121155, 313.57199473884145, 620.8991761072473, 315.9415918671806, 305.719873677835, 230.58191874812428, 334.78295733167903, 184.05105988323623, 242.4018567053956, 203.86599781787658, 461.78180548859484, 303.9123206825657, 745.4166755033747, 156.89175068094627, 309.0241356632773, 203.07476599159753, 748.6232228295115, 130.4469315935665, 170.86836278148664, 281.3279542763928, 817.6594857668923, 244.55076172150916 ], "zero": [ 0.040223165803000505, 0.03263350437118735, 0.055162418234736034, 0.05002375545341505, 0.017388416183325112, 0.008907196039100222, 0.07978706421124401, 0.06386697270033848, 0.0699246507176655, 0.026237912982086425, 0.0339601653880974, 0.03177982511019077, 0.028731841628043587, 0.02519012620281744, 0.03353820012216284, 0.09462556703537434, 0.03561834269825274, 0.0550245378915304, 0.06360860434762547, 0.054337380572029845, 0.04877669126722285, 0.029018515387987078, 0.03742476910907716, 0.04571621497503416, 0.05016099744571512, 0.05460688611990165, 0.021789593940646203, 0.05890094726365067, 0.05746488016617663, 0.04269406135237328, 0.01432245657341291, 0.06996439514193288 ] }, "crps": 6.9486267219821745, "crpss": 0.06449993019727318, "rps": 0.4625270471164945, "rpss": -0.023626258013986545, "mean_bias_mm": -0.021921298593694516, "mean_mae_mm": 10.457026350906704, "mean_rmse_mm": 19.973903434062024, "spread_error_ratio": 0.9522504024118227, "zero_fraction": 0.04473156426360482, "correlation": 0.13434034684331697, "pit_histogram": [ 0.02474, 0.06839, 0.10319, 0.12806, 0.13858, 0.18436, 0.13285, 0.07261, 0.05627, 0.09095 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.37408835571642846 } }, "distribution_full": { "ethiopia": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0014424350283093, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.028351352703586047 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9302370258500234, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.18329158217206443 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.5723298321016689, "area_mean_abs_log": 1.863213554720644 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 1.1503605504138064, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.2617649817224601 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0911214567065113, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.2738140521135094 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": 0.02090935711050282 } }, "ondj_domain": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 1.000476163865606, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.0075909429777814355 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 0.8825848090232036, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.14743317545705653 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.37697160131833013, "area_mean_abs_log": 3.2892731818075975 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 1.204176907790371, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.32409497190072833 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0993835889607202, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.31890908452180966 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": 0.044731564263604785 } } } }, "pt": { "training": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 2.8452393509844924, 3.9438522035436154, 10.431108779230499, 2.099598207439281, 10.265795531352495, 4.496119738436811, 3.03183268665115, 4.933522014236402, 3.4650685289794048, 17.474189380797288, 16.375403587388657, 3.8273788469539722, 8.03556047435237, 23.04829986312429, 4.6306948661397875, 2.6041080418311426, 12.26898825751795, 3.681958320678217, 3.9772043100312056, 4.62072734411188, 5.238959996537759, 4.31691118585353, 7.728326314380094, 3.2129270770248874 ], "crps_clim": [ 3.069144896531585, 3.3858676721658623, 10.074246020518368, 2.773361990265274, 15.332066536235006, 3.604951743610606, 2.9367188887863067, 5.050819710999868, 3.0258348712866763, 21.012210746646392, 16.801010670653753, 3.7894449827302754, 4.194423053287697, 25.04733364035127, 3.8894382629868667, 3.276619104881488, 13.516550290161696, 3.1815721446141088, 3.8044427745910094, 3.8505600739044343, 3.8413777807512575, 3.029724174279054, 7.270640397516081, 3.55202677848655 ], "rps": [ 0.5462390722945278, 0.41713838243172713, 0.4540380554729418, 0.3706967744057351, 0.39512534374948555, 0.7030265810658232, 0.4596954860420306, 0.4972819524099998, 0.4400009574889233, 0.3395269256474757, 0.4429376825340852, 0.4790874839673458, 0.7634011120121539, 0.3462489121493685, 0.5714284204776997, 0.28362257195380214, 0.4150668579403541, 0.4701028534284372, 0.4793634227786161, 0.5037683383550574, 0.6307878518899831, 0.5044362556032781, 0.41934841917280424, 0.4768127047345446 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4625629239522452, 0.36451731789334524, 0.44125991446339186, 0.36766510384083156, 0.4796288408201259, 0.5018388021804165, 0.38147740265907437, 0.45785739893807914, 0.37358783510004456, 0.5052606258044735, 0.5036552005735562, 0.4358799343390295, 0.5001476339830571, 0.5372757885017574, 0.4967176371371437, 0.4833984207814198, 0.48412488996957304, 0.42298688095193837, 0.47887418976886764, 0.4007717998366474, 0.49873748259985246, 0.40202165211061897, 0.4457035075298269, 0.452337281302436 ], "bias": [ 5.677523736900791, 4.360732136744945, -9.558003091413443, 2.7439406051559585, 2.1667597348024477, 11.427361327279447, -0.15483806277092008, -0.5304014140624196, 3.2590835366756226, -18.08329994559809, -17.054495814144445, 1.3464624364452533, 17.211350345560135, -26.356209625857023, 10.352179990676722, 2.820254848046379, -12.118926436899915, -1.4954674506717835, -0.6803153517006765, -2.991666999720596, 11.355326843761512, 10.014619052287545, 2.4348055848978296, 4.4972709618768505 ], "mae": [ 6.134344972538428, 6.672654138463607, 12.532944587692628, 3.641088555276057, 15.911516741493962, 11.429470127559787, 3.745501246986752, 6.058789954150052, 5.275445087997218, 21.67187598163514, 18.555174561823847, 5.3876807808364156, 17.211350345560135, 26.882356033388, 10.378015794731951, 4.572321611362472, 15.44578683777305, 4.525298803430384, 5.065585261203882, 5.775159187164285, 11.379534066154005, 10.09660422017549, 12.109050266136993, 6.2580987086665525 ], "mse": [ 77.4190064533397, 162.2084427557275, 724.1835630304417, 37.99611594395964, 624.3546599492829, 259.369243615718, 51.912571325292184, 106.04734140146186, 82.23852076320851, 1674.1483408468832, 601.7227193561075, 91.78681997959866, 750.726714344455, 1652.3908072664808, 302.67191129201547, 64.54224583625358, 995.972605826676, 84.7709150468576, 80.33109583123867, 169.95980365464436, 384.3951924750881, 228.29877920982653, 306.2221388670001, 88.66565911782465 ], "var": [ 179.32069685398045, 449.4134795154984, 352.81166079663956, 165.6869631731144, 1063.3260890698211, 537.26184774022, 223.14424189817743, 389.74483887417284, 377.6775213278301, 655.21802787611, 333.3294065768087, 370.11441778535533, 735.1214258624482, 327.09619983184, 379.23911166558685, 295.07060871693113, 465.86295514200896, 230.5000213753681, 238.68129244445237, 196.6342969117687, 494.3199291114932, 366.89835383254837, 708.1945448413712, 224.9963595125418 ], "zero": [ 0.06246143284184453, 0.05495944867910176, 0.07848287457412811, 0.05325719542746489, 0.030781569054674135, 0.027670857788747442, 0.14393882186909293, 0.0841961327231594, 0.07222490606557701, 0.031210639840147155, 0.05500002747991127, 0.04697989715557832, 0.032750238494727184, 0.040749665908579286, 0.06327580180741041, 0.12303434794022053, 0.050903315907059966, 0.10102514351700966, 0.08107857983883338, 0.07202398599044342, 0.04921821821739066, 0.039302649377388935, 0.035994084478899686, 0.05073366128847943 ] }, "crps": 6.939740621149049, "crpss": 0.01628141276002404, "rps": 0.47538260075025834, "rpss": -0.048803077310802356, "mean_bias_mm": 0.026835289511338328, "mean_mae_mm": 10.279818661341713, "mean_rmse_mm": 20.00243236687039, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0081589457667477, "zero_fraction": 0.06171889567774456, "correlation": 0.022122231834727328, "pit_histogram": [ 0.03795, 0.06946, 0.10429, 0.13062, 0.14005, 0.14055, 0.12662, 0.09242, 0.0619, 0.09613 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.2842657166589374 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 2.7293447923777814, 5.085925891785822, 3.94474844699077, 2.345588918056864, 14.121302261886449, 5.464259534023705, 3.6471184693544925, 4.3963182431252426, 3.3867383736252057, 25.641776897498673, 25.599265508014348, 3.7991768965591146, 8.735920994454446, 23.452921832886144, 5.572774941348141, 2.215941001585438, 13.3044984763346, 2.6776651127733895, 6.7298189270614825, 5.307006069155296, 4.61073483858823, 5.020398726569728, 6.294047302130258, 3.3923920425047287 ], "crps_clim": [ 3.134642569756797, 4.0368873592733205, 3.423335292543674, 3.3738802296500032, 27.106814106125587, 3.7253738930894196, 3.249450552047323, 4.035569151257637, 2.965809999169824, 30.070724508266622, 25.830159399346183, 3.580613889817456, 4.549159240055732, 25.77593644509466, 4.188541565312743, 3.9517287715065783, 14.718801138616833, 2.963090816144978, 5.6582471562161265, 4.848776670389135, 3.9672709222205658, 3.261152428150299, 5.930891894544658, 4.158239602390194 ], "rps": [ 0.5566817566026616, 0.44675024835353605, 0.4578553486048072, 0.40849269304885616, 0.10323888138779297, 0.8452112177837472, 0.4994619290696388, 0.49100551797166614, 0.5477613305222957, 0.33025062396820776, 0.46956702917903104, 0.4914097756197179, 0.7710297253606183, 0.3262458019662209, 0.6622250435818248, 0.21162608624626073, 0.3976230505710801, 0.33545885624587923, 0.6245304435873433, 0.4820123838681492, 0.45566058066603116, 0.6264156425714261, 0.4598029164844415, 0.4234728464217156 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4612583063145251, 0.36325581037926996, 0.3548837655357383, 0.3845191261452081, 0.5442138131835412, 0.47392048479376536, 0.3369486554725916, 0.41421918051654527, 0.37845219279141734, 0.4951720255695432, 0.5339101560355515, 0.4478677807232184, 0.5122698437472656, 0.5463196106078548, 0.5151171353423272, 0.5367285502205256, 0.4864254375606979, 0.45042529314649876, 0.45228609712142287, 0.40382417088714717, 0.4727414090541605, 0.43354624566717376, 0.435070354227705, 0.43462262504974214 ], "bias": [ 5.379304229728761, 5.785713214225451, 1.536000187212166, 5.4191595823042835, -7.399007885382606, 14.40102874688946, -1.5325534771955844, -0.04155691574757408, 4.064277184609552, -27.681187484094576, -28.407715492984277, 3.51632960759759, 19.849239966046945, -27.053136354960248, 12.12454944321865, 5.474917201224602, -13.717082192132795, 1.0946722794063806, -5.241003272109016, -3.752891245307071, 11.282084872653424, 11.598875983600811, 10.553784872089436, 3.309096566107531 ], "mae": [ 5.425174920807282, 8.900597796110436, 4.602494550190182, 5.612547557880613, 19.212508913593563, 14.40102874688946, 4.077426107610143, 5.360790416024844, 5.1115810082467315, 32.19230749767193, 28.473996269573636, 5.73465242360802, 19.849239966046945, 27.393600869306685, 12.190487523565402, 5.5274557532620365, 18.17586209491347, 4.27966590447262, 7.354158151562721, 6.146796216248076, 11.282084872653424, 11.598875983600811, 12.124377915387635, 6.323332030476875 ], "mse": [ 60.311926541653236, 218.90719622184346, 89.78363053804173, 63.4301972886129, 859.443434936059, 342.49137454126725, 78.89193762563471, 87.89447341278527, 88.41714852899685, 3002.835226771539, 1039.7724895081892, 84.215875870047, 845.2099949096191, 1620.6313667065008, 343.48228591305406, 81.81886958053292, 1133.4586408458972, 44.087539123675846, 151.1469551640975, 228.09304593902314, 366.10738937882553, 282.6679062896246, 234.59051866634698, 92.21838957173928 ], "var": [ 143.7266337346, 611.925794059943, 495.5276677256255, 225.34918438954563, 1601.064804288145, 739.6827362055756, 221.2175074925908, 430.62848884226634, 475.43431255468073, 658.0723057132957, 392.9477051557375, 436.32229203263176, 912.196594224534, 441.87994169360246, 419.0911755308357, 319.64669831877416, 490.7088001375651, 250.42749470408668, 325.10636448735465, 278.5640129414213, 613.7469027576384, 410.46653450416466, 1201.127990276241, 222.4193848830713 ], "zero": [ 0.07856434034012037, 0.053879449830906305, 0.11961313348051815, 0.07528412098583218, 0.027583500180204935, 0.006719813633678996, 0.17269454681964758, 0.12520476865443653, 0.11259402932596514, 0.02849285802048877, 0.08117152005421405, 0.039958916753986794, 0.046313101756351, 0.041863822172994815, 0.049581828510942165, 0.16594524526679674, 0.05743030646381031, 0.10784468706350836, 0.10080052759579528, 0.08395535029239423, 0.06686790839509517, 0.03838228901161852, 0.048060861883123446, 0.04707630680494277 ] }, "crps": 7.811486854112097, "crpss": 0.055562367090774445, "rps": 0.47599123873678956, "rpss": -0.05114020595190771, "mean_bias_mm": 0.023454150708387484, "mean_mae_mm": 11.722960145404315, "mean_rmse_mm": 21.83260922514913, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0376387169424555, "zero_fraction": 0.07399513472072386, "correlation": 0.12319774627165944, "pit_histogram": [ 0.01705, 0.06193, 0.0929, 0.12541, 0.13705, 0.15864, 0.14977, 0.10115, 0.0632, 0.0929 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.34403493620936354 } }, "operational": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 3.483769474632818, 3.3176444080361494, 9.799257752137647, 3.9546112916805574, 4.251762694630563, 5.1503555141087, 6.694877106877098, 2.4380053209813943 ], "crps_clim": [ 3.840649245962226, 2.9635126140043284, 11.660524877797739, 2.9183695971477044, 3.477601142846446, 4.259321637104846, 3.1351156438044105, 3.1728418151724775 ], "rps": [ 0.4990366224558474, 0.46594647706758446, 0.37117929276909956, 0.46438752227551394, 0.4327279688901638, 0.4741269515539178, 0.7339270201652802, 0.3525499017795077 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.524230481898705, 0.4593885401867237, 0.5017173979879027, 0.4051068206667376, 0.4317667103339062, 0.4153152702181896, 0.47288784486408364, 0.4886335324867942 ], "bias": [ 8.125155860582298, 1.6215480482231903, -5.765598419178088, -1.6700728466586965, -0.2357291164965774, -2.266087263627111, 12.963579255153032, 5.570383179877024 ], "mae": [ 8.180442676917531, 4.948875701585947, 11.791921964701283, 4.807718465829734, 6.252938500196709, 6.8066535903465475, 14.018425367364754, 5.741216696124412 ], "mse": [ 192.10418455682324, 57.977452470056654, 387.9968422251917, 117.2855224660063, 159.87210208494702, 173.74283500871925, 400.0795548875841, 75.28188226411586 ], "var": [ 324.10897680388, 267.8740691952711, 762.5960832111004, 150.99590302348494, 232.99405195936978, 299.989230842868, 774.6310169693033, 321.31678871504334 ], "zero": [ 0.0896369511255632, 0.06470533732175329, 0.036836556807757395, 0.10513016302470657, 0.09463728323539414, 0.06423395433216478, 0.03234979461405436, 0.11507503013111603 ] }, "crps": 4.886285445385616, "crpss": -0.10337454967526982, "rps": 0.47423521961961435, "rpss": -0.02563773009744219, "mean_bias_mm": 2.292897337234384, "mean_mae_mm": 7.818524120383365, "mean_rmse_mm": 13.983652848788493, "spread_error_ratio": 1.4155295298672168, "zero_fraction": 0.07532563382406372, "correlation": 0.23042694494978294, "pit_histogram": [ 0.01209, 0.05998, 0.09359, 0.13879, 0.14853, 0.18578, 0.15844, 0.08178, 0.05143, 0.0696 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.463073901791498 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 3.736739383324939, 3.9214833538173917, 10.833570464814716, 4.135637313816857, 2.568321535479883, 3.5489419876066823, 8.929117572475239, 2.7541309244238326 ], "crps_clim": [ 4.156168553465009, 3.538722242103148, 14.589550778766494, 3.336016465541637, 3.2225107652008003, 2.991934313605765, 3.4730598185838906, 3.692380181189609 ], "rps": [ 0.4434553592260003, 0.4841434929107241, 0.2899021551352908, 0.4312430702780425, 0.36573641106362437, 0.45446992868500274, 0.8143380862462424, 0.35056286796542047 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5378222677027902, 0.46540376292499014, 0.544167761935176, 0.42259006334453925, 0.4687251767879638, 0.37920455847261086, 0.47625759961208325, 0.48392303022441024 ], "bias": [ 9.522572823149222, -0.2823946210203254, -4.765116433573964, -1.292912928718196, 4.624639835034307, 2.4242187870130594, 18.834247538833853, 6.846751305918234 ], "mae": [ 9.522572823149222, 4.955697690566201, 11.951721468936215, 5.103332753641551, 5.346113323914882, 6.106232234657957, 18.834247538833853, 6.846751305918234 ], "mse": [ 240.79643411156493, 73.36540690904492, 291.6613960523725, 138.705920094116, 58.07757783365052, 90.49185119085881, 568.5548266534889, 104.75404756278084 ], "var": [ 415.2691117035499, 269.24084638544247, 1273.1749038660855, 177.35936443563932, 291.0833518220038, 379.2470187894932, 1067.8140198649423, 334.6443418974765 ], "zero": [ 0.09496716266718189, 0.07323134573350991, 0.027923490218392792, 0.11955057187797707, 0.10422667393197127, 0.0708129056659379, 0.01792138219118463, 0.14444809202402287 ] }, "crps": 5.053492816969943, "crpss": -0.0366047912185572, "rps": 0.45423142143879347, "rpss": 0.03817873273045669, "mean_bias_mm": 4.489000788329524, "mean_mae_mm": 8.583333642452263, "mean_rmse_mm": 13.992888642127639, "spread_error_ratio": 1.6389921520418982, "zero_fraction": 0.0816352030387723, "correlation": 0.36480526204479086, "pit_histogram": [ 0.01691, 0.07007, 0.0905, 0.13852, 0.11908, 0.23061, 0.17803, 0.08063, 0.04054, 0.03511 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.5324630789583633 } }, "full": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 2.7226123649878633, 3.747621975310907, 10.478864568698743, 2.048119988538791, 10.245310225920216, 4.312644655969367, 2.97751276749697, 5.12390800804602, 3.2334161472791756, 18.233067821501926, 16.72078552095967, 3.6443952127480754, 7.690374450446749, 23.293859351136614, 4.470838741712756, 2.3727555475427495, 12.624332089732505, 3.6114526645919764, 3.94727731305664, 4.351566364381057, 5.095059730340732, 4.099613675059086, 7.116217867804438, 3.229384791387392, 3.5434063459307796, 3.165530134320108, 9.782176660648778, 3.829100773493734, 4.0006945009970005, 4.997993814379508, 6.276732615150591, 2.3676850000484695 ], "crps_clim": [ 2.8572571807760165, 3.1865323464856155, 10.383599749568983, 2.5619649424777258, 15.714771517105724, 3.3680154534657665, 2.765672743937594, 5.300295600051972, 2.8388059419872405, 21.851414927820926, 17.1664341858879, 3.7370645400554223, 3.942032189422852, 25.551792834412236, 3.6290536020800803, 2.8900168246080717, 14.071028267301827, 3.0762760995886107, 3.6632019409978067, 3.7186259353467004, 3.564689968626687, 2.839593289203478, 7.19932849431782, 3.43605995135926, 3.8609579743608737, 2.8299285708739577, 12.23962820019987, 2.794216883727665, 3.293480646075853, 4.260034824273769, 3.0060012627324424, 3.1366202401449357 ], "rps": [ 0.5145446895276371, 0.42094641944520866, 0.45944021824775627, 0.3703889239437322, 0.3599833334243955, 0.6624046451616525, 0.46241901328705703, 0.5204787891234297, 0.45914016548457853, 0.3390213269928153, 0.45149009095784703, 0.4767324510289672, 0.7703543985565643, 0.3391089892065147, 0.5715533155128163, 0.2912018140399203, 0.41126321790624126, 0.513191495953261, 0.4936955011015792, 0.498880223446322, 0.6410972314760671, 0.47916698835796323, 0.383336984455174, 0.4876527833629572, 0.49238470508187365, 0.4511341505751564, 0.3784279831923251, 0.49074507481563734, 0.4338779815394213, 0.46900544033623076, 0.7239930542192431, 0.353947036851782 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.42597328472277496, 0.3506474587875527, 0.4500587082647611, 0.32853144302379395, 0.4793056617036147, 0.4798374907327482, 0.3541533787330895, 0.4731556449679077, 0.3927115296130284, 0.5155155067499355, 0.5115992154696631, 0.4372196861501219, 0.5134082784354855, 0.5544160313927202, 0.4916821403090456, 0.46169725845021364, 0.48685690274881205, 0.4101509392762119, 0.472007224293684, 0.4017865592049955, 0.4940497459609742, 0.37193747436870483, 0.4453370890748853, 0.4489261212476537, 0.5165803609034532, 0.4475995691106898, 0.5228420289369178, 0.41806933442655636, 0.4281627076345683, 0.41613299701643813, 0.4679489278571733, 0.4937218068532966 ], "bias": [ 5.278808278305053, 3.7863526619448598, -9.924311272736425, 2.5362710425088713, -0.10312735745559722, 10.606491246248313, -0.3141250099759332, -1.0532318459617762, 2.745513589404261, -18.838833498417163, -17.29774758405829, 0.7697866636081594, 15.99397203630222, -26.74049457265356, 9.744639680320068, 2.5614943169876403, -12.69761431115608, -1.7321723514480156, -0.9129050137706239, -3.3161073641357435, 10.661554797686595, 9.211451848437767, 1.0333483706500142, 4.048175262966887, 7.907839029452966, 1.253356103013057, -7.024092009077771, -2.00635292554931, -0.6259562675865968, -2.7583517079895468, 12.308067390816712, 5.307295405878289 ], "mae": [ 5.677877349606383, 6.11763412763269, 12.460044864868872, 3.3997276724493526, 15.483067228386025, 10.611197372988267, 3.652303945336665, 6.465296568860629, 4.6643423290635235, 22.57644327679194, 19.027892072307992, 4.9987676794340485, 15.99397203630222, 27.0935933593582, 9.764412145568256, 3.9622712277205077, 15.720110721176667, 4.425580606252666, 4.929634098017906, 5.387317183378038, 10.672947608857836, 9.298996783238604, 10.843798911436501, 6.012583884393622, 7.9460335658035905, 4.553064138407956, 11.592950095930298, 4.611986566720476, 5.69973741835147, 6.496354491360565, 13.05209953526771, 5.39823573304775 ], "mse": [ 74.2959916395044, 135.14586998944156, 715.3535076110954, 35.70328439901213, 641.8379469830603, 234.42896142146037, 53.08588159034175, 122.22295397766572, 68.28443025381117, 1789.7723176042693, 627.5711257762546, 81.98838039361931, 676.2163115533646, 1669.4022193419723, 287.6744775327999, 50.243309033809766, 1048.659741908478, 78.39802219926965, 80.13549917278942, 154.53207696402401, 359.50024032455417, 206.33177290483528, 248.8062682540371, 90.88271093314854, 193.79944103592393, 52.33696263931959, 371.5250392936175, 112.51212776448267, 143.6736166368399, 163.01892370605745, 340.4052860898203, 70.22587503593086 ], "var": [ 160.17729887502995, 381.8938979247813, 302.00726515612575, 151.53938675403958, 800.3968549822474, 446.2912424447555, 202.77783817567374, 329.2551340027435, 328.0439030160846, 539.7462099435614, 289.4815777854844, 316.2180674132836, 608.573701969042, 277.74926757629373, 331.8744311285519, 260.5106075497403, 387.8626783510585, 206.28249344842072, 211.69893527197306, 173.29816863307744, 415.6190206010276, 311.63012910840064, 535.6626735194534, 195.97436027234892, 280.34823430523124, 237.64613224441476, 596.2700928971406, 136.6762925958997, 196.71241694591262, 264.429183980815, 674.9468722353656, 283.111739606106 ], "zero": [ 0.06246143284184453, 0.05495944867910176, 0.07848287457412811, 0.05325719542746489, 0.030781569054674135, 0.027670857788747442, 0.14393882186909293, 0.0841961327231594, 0.07222490606557701, 0.031210639840147155, 0.05500002747991127, 0.04697989715557832, 0.032750238494727184, 0.040749665908579286, 0.06327580180741041, 0.12303434794022053, 0.050903315907059966, 0.10102514351700966, 0.08107857983883338, 0.07202398599044342, 0.04921821821739066, 0.039302649377388935, 0.035994084478899686, 0.05073366128847943, 0.0896369511255632, 0.06470533732175329, 0.036836556807757395, 0.10513016302470657, 0.09463728323539414, 0.06423395433216478, 0.03234979461405436, 0.11507503013111603 ] }, "crps": 6.3548222403006065, "crpss": 0.0067408577112954005, "rps": 0.47409401364412895, "rpss": -0.049023981941381134, "mean_bias_mm": 0.012781082267478316, "mean_mae_mm": 9.330946081197412, "mean_rmse_mm": 18.52192161835251, "spread_error_ratio": 0.9934534827755761, "zero_fraction": 0.06512058021432435, "correlation": 0.05609404486272602, "pit_histogram": [ 0.03377, 0.06214, 0.09619, 0.12701, 0.1406, 0.15099, 0.14268, 0.09361, 0.06109, 0.09193 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.32255823291664987 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 2.4862496973718122, 4.775600929064272, 3.791414666898306, 2.219534720135438, 14.625067395680782, 4.863677892453775, 3.6708535565755134, 4.439770143046325, 3.28848686635696, 26.64685861489966, 26.101456130537503, 3.640963489143026, 7.883918171449169, 24.290401191152135, 4.9580262112437685, 2.0933210935102813, 13.883571733671745, 2.589300145837929, 6.851526180795016, 5.305255199951344, 4.22454693333383, 4.497668637537454, 5.678343197656594, 3.456061290388654, 3.6179940861257527, 3.9186224941717342, 11.170946079019501, 4.155895766473683, 2.384770271367122, 3.3574007373569326, 8.426122040521426, 2.673310829580768 ], "crps_clim": [ 2.8175577367545985, 3.9021745191382493, 3.3034198610233836, 3.0658976041547716, 27.95661134379484, 3.362418886433096, 3.1100028100913844, 4.094088898027647, 2.797475683019447, 31.07358038415444, 26.285415911798307, 3.5258493082035396, 4.105091866216406, 26.621986127319055, 3.742042717578652, 3.517340209583741, 15.411353025851831, 2.673910822235419, 5.68084916383337, 4.795224659874851, 3.5512909190087862, 2.905159579919633, 5.944050077935008, 4.117186323773333, 4.037389747963682, 3.4488650528891722, 15.716463704166275, 3.2680339255822792, 3.0328683611021146, 2.8141009404740527, 3.4247012737105678, 3.5844382254089533 ], "rps": [ 0.5303934943438099, 0.4364785320607097, 0.47253730569325364, 0.40203498042473834, 0.09994392755286124, 0.7507181082471484, 0.5155948487797378, 0.5232358432610994, 0.5929917415923445, 0.3198857014748239, 0.49167358816674006, 0.49022422316527703, 0.7689335832040368, 0.3251543432870131, 0.6582735580135535, 0.23690416403270345, 0.39987340028381685, 0.39375761098912937, 0.665360654535168, 0.5164869234914596, 0.45531138479511774, 0.5720814838267477, 0.434404862277376, 0.44455636443168517, 0.43313933827725964, 0.4876753301133361, 0.3146089391601237, 0.46793630325060603, 0.3631570599623079, 0.43262170090623353, 0.7987824225803379, 0.354585704787753 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4298711247134212, 0.33951771473196274, 0.3580324977963315, 0.3440075796304816, 0.5614000118944327, 0.42739667374627904, 0.31854005006647745, 0.4274262614020923, 0.4024604048415598, 0.5070497366915091, 0.5496038326833845, 0.44190671299078577, 0.5231727861116291, 0.5620037572257898, 0.5267904535413438, 0.5284018227909777, 0.48322502696648467, 0.40592076688279005, 0.44404886379291797, 0.4240421871939146, 0.4646575370925135, 0.37305364252256173, 0.4173925133581936, 0.4446715007416715, 0.5288605928241447, 0.4618809475548823, 0.5613869457241275, 0.4470539791818982, 0.45697580457229925, 0.3508328348614358, 0.47125617734541536, 0.4764068519243777 ], "bias": [ 4.640610624978086, 4.416443809295323, 0.5371705870418064, 4.649366654654467, -11.031504959663899, 12.830414870544077, -2.0624884790916314, -1.041294097294588, 3.1219710821381605, -28.971583690630197, -29.141816748117627, 2.385852174437516, 17.85159726976406, -28.002662087518047, 10.83757102891467, 4.803829993352851, -14.791097771932392, 0.48541896566692766, -5.8771998415079345, -4.4961978451566065, 10.091379927686093, 10.272139009671905, 8.002199895108241, 2.4615479253491155, 8.91604548626186, -1.0383369017555726, -6.988261696036282, -1.9545777507078763, 3.9698304467926837, 1.584555902517721, 17.593448376810763, 6.287210702747594 ], "mae": [ 4.722779361984977, 7.966911927410889, 4.1393330501530965, 4.967162220194411, 19.47060691158505, 12.830414870544077, 4.127818928041486, 5.326041706733836, 4.601557606353954, 33.04687729098144, 29.196178529624117, 5.234192374781633, 17.85159726976406, 28.23630065089245, 10.8879778235623, 4.850251534540298, 18.529821546626366, 3.8907811591470156, 7.601495237702997, 6.080596903499987, 10.091379927686093, 10.272139009671905, 10.430354324013274, 6.1863899655294015, 8.91604548626186, 4.794700189789784, 12.13228515230858, 5.090705971174631, 4.69530392022442, 5.4830339482985835, 17.593448376810763, 6.287210702747594 ], "mse": [ 50.864937955073884, 172.8342876857651, 82.28259904206716, 55.03672448168932, 940.1190468825876, 280.7199600008134, 82.33981680831955, 91.827818352953, 72.56761217136268, 3164.8002740485213, 1082.6925793568412, 73.47130072562946, 706.5045465735262, 1692.5013520063037, 283.5894107059789, 68.22597575709602, 1208.3956128716413, 39.929566665843375, 160.4507350566174, 226.2875364122798, 309.8700495450509, 233.87622811014376, 174.59754570378337, 89.54157198825976, 224.62505181370076, 73.71243923042961, 300.3110119536681, 142.53489269161466, 48.56630053174122, 83.8722977549985, 485.6470704135792, 95.90132151192044 ], "var": [ 125.08246158411475, 497.2173921951855, 412.72258788844573, 193.18174096543254, 1191.118669129872, 608.4303081394577, 188.93784797193408, 347.8780938331485, 399.01439446437405, 537.2947603951187, 326.94310063462086, 360.71074948061494, 748.3852811652458, 364.51348196339404, 351.04498782835293, 270.33726352327426, 402.8503936935932, 215.28453922450927, 276.95594949075144, 238.38966681537687, 510.7161975650848, 341.8291297573453, 881.3750226933698, 192.55015889544413, 352.2351764043533, 230.0826058318694, 953.6641558507083, 153.90582424186135, 225.8239006320121, 326.1633498588738, 930.7007562710935, 286.7919481809737 ], "zero": [ 0.07856434034012037, 0.053879449830906305, 0.11961313348051815, 0.07528412098583218, 0.027583500180204935, 0.006719813633678996, 0.17269454681964758, 0.12520476865443653, 0.11259402932596514, 0.02849285802048877, 0.08117152005421405, 0.039958916753986794, 0.046313101756351, 0.041863822172994815, 0.049581828510942165, 0.16594524526679674, 0.05743030646381031, 0.10784468706350836, 0.10080052759579528, 0.08395535029239423, 0.06686790839509517, 0.03838228901161852, 0.048060861883123446, 0.04707630680494277, 0.09496716266718189, 0.07323134573350991, 0.027923490218392792, 0.11955057187797707, 0.10422667393197127, 0.0708129056659379, 0.01792138219118463, 0.14444809202402287 ] }, "crps": 7.061466762290882, "crpss": 0.049308170759197356, "rps": 0.4734161695927597, "rpss": -0.04772515506860131, "mean_bias_mm": 0.010674464510039616, "mean_mae_mm": 10.485365433707543, "mean_rmse_mm": 19.998826117745168, "spread_error_ratio": 1.024836495477263, "zero_fraction": 0.07590515180023596, "correlation": 0.1505133435904412, "pit_histogram": [ 0.01551, 0.05507, 0.08582, 0.11995, 0.12726, 0.17266, 0.17149, 0.10337, 0.06314, 0.08573 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.38945502855760666 } }, "distribution_full": { "ethiopia": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0014804986623038, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.0061069303509785205 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 1.008412656577493, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.02767842253220124 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.23690611066756787, "area_mean_abs_log": 4.0606570341132375 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 1.112931101035814, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.3239291737225141 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.1240550212510028, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.2739804692997979 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.02725490196078433, "area_mean": 0.05952789457903368 } }, "ondj_domain": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0032723820454144, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.009721701563006032 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0162838748965735, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.03211623765152774 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.041880283404806956, "area_mean_abs_log": 6.136493747875205 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0417203427059853, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.36126064797875823 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.1590845872794382, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.3380114722472749 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.05661764705882351, "area_mean": 0.07590515180023594 } } } }, "dc": { "training": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 2.11847591396735, 3.791777936373505, 10.581695455022526, 2.1274792377350624, 10.918374101475345, 4.1308153302412, 3.006414980944003, 4.879343074244371, 3.1889348456566626, 17.52023567021951, 17.5507581595641, 3.846436865608311, 7.7709702520558706, 23.633289025700883, 4.042192751604338, 2.162531523227762, 12.635848382509929, 3.615972966437111, 3.7364192114827737, 5.087113836043379, 4.475606365016147, 3.352087476365161, 7.595126737310113, 3.019259620457148 ], "crps_clim": [ 3.069144896531585, 3.3858676721658623, 10.074246020518368, 2.773361990265274, 15.332066536235006, 3.604951743610606, 2.9367188887863067, 5.050819710999868, 3.0258348712866763, 21.012210746646392, 16.801010670653753, 3.7894449827302754, 4.194423053287697, 25.04733364035127, 3.8894382629868667, 3.276619104881488, 13.516550290161696, 3.1815721446141088, 3.8044427745910094, 3.8505600739044343, 3.8413777807512575, 3.029724174279054, 7.270640397516081, 3.55202677848655 ], "rps": [ 0.37036872895575207, 0.48791882079002596, 0.5275421332247142, 0.39224178224595296, 0.4044329080955812, 0.8896374938444002, 0.5368371079330629, 0.5092008153236054, 0.5044954558838483, 0.332895853033749, 0.651984035368938, 0.607293080558037, 1.0348295229365678, 0.5134168697253182, 0.537597476512399, 0.22716159515416104, 0.3795233880950181, 0.4767359961678677, 0.4090755300560144, 0.6266713165854886, 0.6091854142857047, 0.44513434251805345, 0.5424146539470891, 0.532030773089814 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4625629239522452, 0.36451731789334524, 0.44125991446339186, 0.36766510384083156, 0.4796288408201259, 0.5018388021804165, 0.38147740265907437, 0.45785739893807914, 0.37358783510004456, 0.5052606258044735, 0.5036552005735562, 0.4358799343390295, 0.5001476339830571, 0.5372757885017574, 0.4967176371371437, 0.4833984207814198, 0.48412488996957304, 0.42298688095193837, 0.47887418976886764, 0.4007717998366474, 0.49873748259985246, 0.40202165211061897, 0.4457035075298269, 0.452337281302436 ], "bias": [ 5.264021030689921, 3.8949922920837987, -9.668780870715345, 1.8150549309855168, 4.036046618539407, 11.673704886257411, -0.6022788782166031, -0.46293458905324975, 3.294736719028319, -17.46705109507047, -16.955050990703825, 0.8823187097114865, 18.46813056762116, -26.511678828430746, 10.357001491374538, 2.4284380724475247, -11.668240015791861, -1.8445128169008658, -1.2312778002976201, -3.6962791184178507, 11.509967989601563, 10.325609805562387, 2.780872371758509, 4.126209510022478 ], "mae": [ 5.789492167521118, 6.790731873474759, 12.557357726857763, 3.5562538062051443, 16.990913485306564, 11.686578007343373, 3.817879400922351, 5.965465069257657, 5.377732286158249, 21.09784798758476, 18.987790598443507, 5.37532307546986, 18.468205269276517, 27.01302849313441, 10.423304840854621, 4.250164176833282, 15.479676214398465, 4.663692411533744, 4.702273300645463, 6.111089828628675, 11.535498405205997, 10.350621455980477, 12.538880076004302, 6.288280831422145 ], "mse": [ 72.98666438350284, 170.3456003194525, 722.6269668648032, 37.24507194302916, 670.3374622548209, 273.5883582930959, 53.102724387340935, 103.80291008758412, 82.6612377571081, 1623.5234657538967, 618.8967594961772, 93.96649140267175, 811.7335273167877, 1665.8318856338788, 303.508319788131, 58.83932875728538, 992.9449591629251, 84.64148918662706, 79.05124611287069, 170.98720354231807, 387.7983102964197, 234.44768944260997, 324.0246064549003, 88.26061739415776 ], "var": [ 244.92927767186228, 696.4123664514581, 362.7708065132925, 177.81693718859054, 2670.921114072159, 542.3881139294953, 178.853157428151, 376.84388004200264, 408.83634177015773, 812.4999711192511, 399.4178012851146, 511.45613176450775, 1036.9983999808994, 571.8082970349942, 473.7025429008519, 197.83984516786782, 574.0721131862958, 163.21974325351025, 226.3282713361971, 265.00747889196293, 548.2689803852697, 548.599589732791, 1317.4200270293916, 280.39900408192403 ], "zero": [ 0.005953512946709058, 0.006041600323753901, 0.0059828815971513, 0.005953512946709058, 0.006127874335440766, 0.005953512946709058, 0.006100300476074617, 0.006301951032448919, 0.006244959416616008, 0.006127035333068182, 0.006273478520367335, 0.006186194098887558, 0.006011295872032453, 0.006100300476074617, 0.005953512946709058, 0.005982863022869415, 0.0063028577151279085, 0.006100300476074617, 0.005953512946709058, 0.006331720609795569, 0.006100300476074617, 0.005953512946709058, 0.006158112519998229, 0.006100300476074617 ] }, "crps": 6.866131654969273, "crpss": 0.026715593541635996, "rps": 0.5228593789304651, "rpss": -0.15354774187702258, "mean_bias_mm": 0.031209166336899113, "mean_mae_mm": 10.4090866995193, "mean_rmse_mm": 20.12994545450508, "spread_error_ratio": 1.1819811082631546, "zero_fraction": 0.006095641852424374, "correlation": 0.027979173564020254, "pit_histogram": [ 0.17532, 0.03399, 0.04401, 0.05585, 0.06919, 0.08754, 0.11283, 0.16024, 0.15351, 0.10752 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.4188415048224005 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 1.7645198104951991, 4.716287200176359, 3.5494259803859425, 1.9726169165028422, 16.06162597263462, 5.065545144807949, 3.61527776957279, 4.3781229634089405, 2.964515312929226, 25.524113870282047, 26.93867765315652, 3.6328503693611753, 8.211917146572068, 24.02733859348888, 4.552362586437941, 1.8289660913576964, 14.125721136321745, 2.5720639964960723, 6.829293613676974, 5.620251770331407, 4.034812043796128, 3.467465527377308, 5.960494211986759, 3.5669874223782405 ], "crps_clim": [ 3.134642569756797, 4.0368873592733205, 3.423335292543674, 3.3738802296500032, 27.106814106125587, 3.7253738930894196, 3.249450552047323, 4.035569151257637, 2.965809999169824, 30.070724508266622, 25.830159399346183, 3.580613889817456, 4.549159240055732, 25.77593644509466, 4.188541565312743, 3.9517287715065783, 14.718801138616833, 2.963090816144978, 5.6582471562161265, 4.848776670389135, 3.9672709222205658, 3.261152428150299, 5.930891894544658, 4.158239602390194 ], "rps": [ 0.28668551228291966, 0.5021158576087446, 0.4831042462567254, 0.37902673683296767, 0.051923944857200234, 1.082701368904796, 0.585565170980966, 0.6252028979191017, 0.63736757581389, 0.4175586750696306, 0.7014960377417423, 0.6692785015850611, 1.129784006899789, 0.5134915336280926, 0.6005789580977612, 0.17024820632893675, 0.385564194745444, 0.25199644760826745, 0.6815252844145182, 0.5496645452249429, 0.45478866589756917, 0.5193259759109137, 0.6020309336566491, 0.6504839614262695 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4612583063145251, 0.36325581037926996, 0.3548837655357383, 0.3845191261452081, 0.5442138131835412, 0.47392048479376536, 0.3369486554725916, 0.41421918051654527, 0.37845219279141734, 0.4951720255695432, 0.5339101560355515, 0.4478677807232184, 0.5122698437472656, 0.5463196106078548, 0.5151171353423272, 0.5367285502205256, 0.4864254375606979, 0.45042529314649876, 0.45228609712142287, 0.40382417088714717, 0.4727414090541605, 0.43354624566717376, 0.435070354227705, 0.43462262504974214 ], "bias": [ 4.677715402154466, 5.784475194425351, 1.4284443506703284, 4.691664015457277, -5.083950609312822, 14.992780270253045, -1.9341230980439759, -0.4691127570277378, 3.8567550524682823, -26.978891195111668, -28.751425943499594, 3.0934444565126884, 20.769019354223285, -27.068389659297807, 12.000452066560719, 5.09049612027708, -13.884513402412347, 0.8218266190540925, -5.5034004137528125, -3.9747745531640515, 11.399949423089138, 11.51147899842216, 11.312889238128902, 2.5917944927258083 ], "mae": [ 4.827913367461784, 9.262095795680123, 4.5343412246651615, 5.2194663879216, 19.404223139041484, 14.992780270253045, 4.1996875571293035, 5.397230056061637, 5.031955185693183, 31.591213557327368, 28.813930696427573, 5.7046562271129755, 20.769019354223285, 27.445946995519424, 12.14186050351535, 5.189411227517722, 18.30495752289326, 4.295106118100483, 7.49638713929891, 6.196381661713096, 11.401935785951382, 11.51147899842216, 12.459707008248849, 6.362080397424475 ], "mse": [ 50.00232152790613, 242.62886269253033, 85.92153518390074, 59.250076361666395, 882.7947358196435, 369.82449747137144, 81.83889200753374, 92.36243825762008, 84.77363526220115, 2905.2385779914553, 1065.3955500084714, 82.01303350500547, 903.1799851664664, 1632.1147043750684, 337.5507050286687, 73.27523212786447, 1146.503716502448, 43.68665008085942, 156.16818581707892, 222.99447151914248, 368.39618514697213, 277.99911233710924, 259.4339701558899, 87.3992205484284 ], "var": [ 237.39895851328484, 1034.5469486136635, 500.4446666559276, 228.66626206401693, 3955.970586545499, 772.6138905325377, 184.112442135885, 415.38652653280843, 447.1752677188738, 964.2767669327029, 426.87124380445937, 611.5566457942239, 1285.8648655808681, 768.6550863548342, 632.4800758932162, 220.5854713377816, 674.026123286332, 171.92153128088083, 311.6043581409314, 348.6669095885095, 623.9534036207345, 637.7531546419661, 2174.904365654625, 298.440576701657 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 7.707552212663951, "crpss": 0.06812844939748441, "rps": 0.5388128849872041, "rpss": -0.18987040265288924, "mean_bias_mm": 0.015608475949992004, "mean_mae_mm": 11.773073590733484, "mean_rmse_mm": 21.900101117437128, "spread_error_ratio": 1.247994526098168, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.12316564311605697, "pit_histogram": [ 0.16539, 0.03321, 0.04259, 0.05188, 0.06222, 0.0791, 0.11801, 0.18416, 0.17008, 0.09337 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.47525923649839485 } }, "operational": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 2.8225084499884208, 2.9096049409220592, 10.45064317599211, 3.7042593871684417, 3.795241126507255, 4.978841967063472, 5.846472604045482, 1.8264598720732255 ], "crps_clim": [ 3.840649245962226, 2.9635126140043284, 11.660524877797739, 2.9183695971477044, 3.477601142846446, 4.259321637104846, 3.1351156438044105, 3.1728418151724775 ], "rps": [ 0.34391328234872237, 0.47853364470767157, 0.3691721551436585, 0.45307333838272046, 0.4057126375588294, 0.5337368124906214, 0.9438223389592698, 0.39566414172038133 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.524230481898705, 0.4593885401867237, 0.5017173979879027, 0.4051068206667376, 0.4317667103339062, 0.4153152702181896, 0.47288784486408364, 0.4886335324867942 ], "bias": [ 7.79864738974896, 1.3238435841493015, -5.695373589508685, -2.283489869883188, -0.6103589845674433, -2.5251233548464955, 13.845554871163191, 5.387174096900396 ], "mae": [ 7.868964228683501, 4.820387733074099, 12.021399425000292, 4.705354980078569, 5.987633347489432, 6.752108188856927, 14.929177816054644, 5.604488818458897 ], "mse": [ 186.26394730616016, 58.32612923014886, 400.4222858411911, 118.60259940972344, 154.84883854258808, 172.3912565218726, 446.5607678219134, 72.40426433271541 ], "var": [ 317.1743692401475, 245.9022564363586, 1199.8316884229662, 131.410516437181, 179.91856869062906, 272.7861946469596, 1569.2225969032706, 230.12313011646845 ], "zero": [ 0.006095641852424373, 0.006095641852424373, 0.006095641852424373, 0.006095641852424373, 0.006095641852424373, 0.006095641852424373, 0.006095641852424373, 0.006095641852424373 ] }, "crps": 4.541753940470058, "crpss": -0.025575718981876605, "rps": 0.4904535439139843, "rpss": -0.060713415384174185, "mean_bias_mm": 2.1551092678945043, "mean_mae_mm": 7.836189317212044, "mean_rmse_mm": 14.185468308300193, "spread_error_ratio": 1.6048901807771658, "zero_fraction": 0.006095641852424373, "correlation": 0.21204983708791736, "pit_histogram": [ 0.13061, 0.03219, 0.04932, 0.06587, 0.09021, 0.11394, 0.13031, 0.16867, 0.13103, 0.08786 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.34910868856383936 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 3.101471057577784, 3.6994316820391755, 12.05262515679288, 3.802034471337912, 1.8016359120966399, 3.0551262406969837, 7.609717856695997, 1.9870140675864008 ], "crps_clim": [ 4.156168553465009, 3.538722242103148, 14.589550778766494, 3.336016465541637, 3.2225107652008003, 2.991934313605765, 3.4730598185838906, 3.692380181189609 ], "rps": [ 0.2851847906451233, 0.5761060646120723, 0.19166449721280437, 0.3996085562254565, 0.26521474744569123, 0.4508825084672847, 1.0517482347361615, 0.45042946759255853 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5378222677027902, 0.46540376292499014, 0.544167761935176, 0.42259006334453925, 0.4687251767879638, 0.37920455847261086, 0.47625759961208325, 0.48392303022441024 ], "bias": [ 9.215638705601508, -0.854615485412684, -4.2341754880845395, -1.7415159781319662, 4.037718441297966, 2.151470769253722, 20.279159882516833, 6.5990231061548785 ], "mae": [ 9.215638705601508, 4.624208535906146, 12.532672071998327, 5.169322599435348, 4.673604335779292, 5.789129986709585, 20.279159882516833, 6.5990231061548785 ], "mse": [ 231.52592720773006, 71.69199286027907, 319.2693295687127, 143.884432731342, 44.1116960036363, 85.0755325845049, 659.661336305548, 97.2201895616999 ], "var": [ 412.85405590398415, 259.80860800055143, 2008.139598579307, 167.7226785118546, 208.27833682297498, 346.79277273234226, 2405.0986125029153, 265.7014087803753 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 4.638632055602972, "crpss": 0.04849410344642702, "rps": 0.458854858367144, "rpss": 0.028388745169752094, "mean_bias_mm": 4.4315879941494645, "mean_mae_mm": 8.61034490301274, "mean_rmse_mm": 14.372023330169334, "spread_error_ratio": 1.917293703352673, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.3459495788011807, "pit_histogram": [ 0.14206, 0.02937, 0.04767, 0.07853, 0.10049, 0.12245, 0.12765, 0.1758, 0.13993, 0.03606 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.416758440244547 } }, "full": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 2.0792862499822444, 3.7315581234824817, 10.741567472642872, 2.1700213239322483, 10.780231769118672, 3.9598773575315085, 3.071402607119589, 5.1625500158797095, 3.0639316317857763, 18.30530612217609, 17.936910985620116, 3.7678448723933773, 7.530159702306357, 23.796491153009853, 4.004133481140395, 1.9760086314383765, 13.038603517651548, 3.631074973647384, 3.782770547666024, 5.017184025209619, 4.389208472409113, 3.1890495014412785, 7.113810099019471, 3.043151645509851, 2.9150571888252563, 2.8426739657595363, 10.466236188714438, 3.7242754033905996, 3.6340321991631526, 4.9787224559433945, 5.758132484712064, 1.798003716896634 ], "crps_clim": [ 2.8572571807760165, 3.1865323464856155, 10.383599749568983, 2.5619649424777258, 15.714771517105724, 3.3680154534657665, 2.765672743937594, 5.300295600051972, 2.8388059419872405, 21.851414927820926, 17.1664341858879, 3.7370645400554223, 3.942032189422852, 25.551792834412236, 3.6290536020800803, 2.8900168246080717, 14.071028267301827, 3.0762760995886107, 3.6632019409978067, 3.7186259353467004, 3.564689968626687, 2.839593289203478, 7.19932849431782, 3.43605995135926, 3.8609579743608737, 2.8299285708739577, 12.23962820019987, 2.794216883727665, 3.293480646075853, 4.260034824273769, 3.0060012627324424, 3.1366202401449357 ], "rps": [ 0.37641523294280627, 0.5283581047357272, 0.5364928361237422, 0.41563700291316696, 0.38622256830349433, 0.8739957315886243, 0.5655375888904605, 0.5185216982895094, 0.525718418574556, 0.2967674917388522, 0.6494015560989018, 0.6148477431247956, 1.0268055220841343, 0.49650851435182297, 0.5563514884449539, 0.25635808904146884, 0.37805662243553345, 0.5428320064887916, 0.43000799053734523, 0.6714080618565407, 0.6179740073640967, 0.40069850871891904, 0.508510043332823, 0.5209932691774557, 0.3551970169465827, 0.4795977016354328, 0.34748526819040176, 0.5025359577946952, 0.4118332296151004, 0.5449854391184892, 0.9747581484752638, 0.39290914309298675 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.42597328472277496, 0.3506474587875527, 0.4500587082647611, 0.32853144302379395, 0.4793056617036147, 0.4798374907327482, 0.3541533787330895, 0.4731556449679077, 0.3927115296130284, 0.5155155067499355, 0.5115992154696631, 0.4372196861501219, 0.5134082784354855, 0.5544160313927202, 0.4916821403090456, 0.46169725845021364, 0.48685690274881205, 0.4101509392762119, 0.472007224293684, 0.4017865592049955, 0.4940497459609742, 0.37193747436870483, 0.4453370890748853, 0.4489261212476537, 0.5165803609034532, 0.4475995691106898, 0.5228420289369178, 0.41806933442655636, 0.4281627076345683, 0.41613299701643813, 0.4679489278571733, 0.4937218068532966 ], "bias": [ 4.829055934783737, 3.478484380014424, -10.048643188107947, 1.5808041466857112, 2.400498329796048, 10.779949274558229, -0.8011187901251913, -0.9676436391370219, 2.865475686913883, -18.015091262875853, -17.138957702779656, 0.39840214374825744, 17.270088503079744, -26.82250338741264, 9.827067111622005, 2.168438590911529, -12.172643449053185, -2.16130463216114, -1.4943524532243995, -4.109259043739117, 10.85824781823007, 9.475289463851476, 1.5463128851725165, 3.642090579758541, 7.523992147780205, 0.9562711962042971, -6.818563800558605, -2.655868559831672, -1.0327046980374477, -3.0416802446274476, 13.45718187842917, 5.062468793988105 ], "mae": [ 5.34603513149479, 6.420356294459026, 12.512084807457589, 3.472546424608218, 16.13452349681824, 10.796468032189507, 3.8152069338411394, 6.343232588591864, 4.855212319460903, 21.903318114272825, 19.526145308455447, 5.028959616789921, 17.270102874910016, 27.16012220765946, 9.888495633639236, 3.705244989234093, 15.683230334658907, 4.619728528883097, 4.6306458132394175, 5.9487325929524495, 10.877799994521869, 9.492285510634416, 11.288167110354687, 5.986448228556904, 7.57475115136904, 4.471113942527931, 11.772705637039916, 4.6235951971606974, 5.5010762537788525, 6.511976123013368, 14.209123209940648, 5.195570288573844 ], "mse": [ 67.43857090179094, 146.38219089914077, 719.9059649731661, 34.75373680307611, 627.4420118542163, 240.8515577127558, 56.55632014176915, 118.72405870088662, 70.00195290571385, 1720.2991342161813, 645.795305542612, 82.92869080797978, 745.3389078116576, 1673.4995635211437, 292.01701902291745, 45.50455131944169, 1042.6536112072479, 82.04166689468855, 80.32383693355769, 166.17150899450866, 365.60710741806486, 207.05478026022683, 264.3304101472217, 86.26782795247821, 182.80997978638302, 53.739723839350034, 378.35720936743746, 118.87289882112441, 142.96104266036005, 165.6075989236528, 401.93419420547525, 64.5101001618025 ], "var": [ 216.02932196250902, 611.8123952838331, 319.0641233231764, 161.97731360004596, 2232.208890156874, 461.92363942175865, 164.19757889477378, 328.90903050699717, 363.582478721621, 713.4306897168915, 362.4139636277881, 448.3445977524407, 888.2771211589017, 502.7349753362751, 421.0390308498352, 178.53514742864303, 498.5876066567323, 143.68761335663896, 201.1406936050794, 229.97801699572693, 480.6886297308862, 469.25577077136137, 1092.1350710076877, 245.35752945188727, 275.15153565903165, 216.82211776451274, 1074.7169498830597, 114.13409196750419, 156.20456150977347, 241.19016644662193, 1466.6637951327457, 199.86544566635763 ], "zero": [ 0.005471010762755572, 0.005536365913466262, 0.005492800406632074, 0.005471010762755572, 0.005600375664072646, 0.005471010762755572, 0.005579917639381631, 0.00572952934249805, 0.00568724524042847, 0.0055997531784413735, 0.005708404575469778, 0.0056436451659847816, 0.005513881965414865, 0.005579917639381631, 0.005471010762755572, 0.005492786625713257, 0.005730202042550203, 0.005579917639381631, 0.005471010762755572, 0.005751616448271371, 0.005579917639381631, 0.005471010762755572, 0.005622810446163667, 0.005579917639381631, 0.005730202042550203, 0.005773094849332238, 0.005773094849332238, 0.00568726684455121, 0.005579917639381631, 0.005579917639381631, 0.005536365913466262, 0.005471010762755572 ] }, "crps": 6.29372712142247, "crpss": 0.016290028888749752, "rps": 0.5219913125633586, "rpss": -0.1550059471011498, "mean_bias_mm": 0.026243250433019227, "mean_mae_mm": 9.45515639659651, "mean_rmse_mm": 18.616762469200328, "spread_error_ratio": 1.181427760769289, "zero_fraction": 0.005592685635290605, "correlation": 0.058360653343910655, "pit_histogram": [ 0.16867, 0.03419, 0.04376, 0.05609, 0.06628, 0.08791, 0.11411, 0.15612, 0.16318, 0.10969 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.42353925640342593 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 1.6774911214885204, 4.5300883206041505, 3.5004212601661977, 1.9367224556023441, 16.183335189486545, 4.5803707107159015, 3.7809529931681545, 4.53810633352031, 2.9330127466915936, 26.50197945938003, 27.408155283416946, 3.634950726101309, 7.508418142924588, 24.73788307473338, 4.1253187602995816, 1.679214885572517, 14.703002516592461, 2.5453638407766332, 7.03833536389029, 5.793893462109717, 3.676615331203779, 3.1061773729749924, 5.476353002613974, 3.684457495305247, 3.0392634231836753, 3.8008502804735196, 12.417568567646462, 4.004578184595596, 1.7047991277037002, 3.0362114551567183, 7.476775260016866, 1.9312063021863668 ], "crps_clim": [ 2.8175577367545985, 3.9021745191382493, 3.3034198610233836, 3.0658976041547716, 27.95661134379484, 3.362418886433096, 3.1100028100913844, 4.094088898027647, 2.797475683019447, 31.07358038415444, 26.285415911798307, 3.5258493082035396, 4.105091866216406, 26.621986127319055, 3.742042717578652, 3.517340209583741, 15.411353025851831, 2.673910822235419, 5.68084916383337, 4.795224659874851, 3.5512909190087862, 2.905159579919633, 5.944050077935008, 4.117186323773333, 4.037389747963682, 3.4488650528891722, 15.716463704166275, 3.2680339255822792, 3.0328683611021146, 2.8141009404740527, 3.4247012737105678, 3.5844382254089533 ], "rps": [ 0.30053079439598873, 0.5106903540640843, 0.5329991475403209, 0.3748939903385452, 0.04224851950123462, 1.0064639116807734, 0.6188516537584274, 0.6754909459447228, 0.6848367277999435, 0.36560642281849925, 0.7069139113496055, 0.6852862680499373, 1.0959956568456581, 0.5232333637734291, 0.6188912556305654, 0.20891040933777202, 0.4056198643920824, 0.3539058478972901, 0.7242283379269161, 0.612653137882126, 0.42995063558382146, 0.4337327560628489, 0.5648662347413971, 0.6243259314890398, 0.2873689493196081, 0.6109624270471106, 0.15086851942014085, 0.44986708694703187, 0.27531501631375427, 0.4509676025238879, 1.0661397318936645, 0.41241799487738956 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4298711247134212, 0.33951771473196274, 0.3580324977963315, 0.3440075796304816, 0.5614000118944327, 0.42739667374627904, 0.31854005006647745, 0.4274262614020923, 0.4024604048415598, 0.5070497366915091, 0.5496038326833845, 0.44190671299078577, 0.5231727861116291, 0.5620037572257898, 0.5267904535413438, 0.5284018227909777, 0.48322502696648467, 0.40592076688279005, 0.44404886379291797, 0.4240421871939146, 0.4646575370925135, 0.37305364252256173, 0.4173925133581936, 0.4446715007416715, 0.5288605928241447, 0.4618809475548823, 0.5613869457241275, 0.4470539791818982, 0.45697580457229925, 0.3508328348614358, 0.47125617734541536, 0.4764068519243777 ], "bias": [ 3.9166262408732617, 4.476539882531372, 0.42276119196649137, 3.9229815754162622, -8.081853642210765, 13.31236843323, -2.524540867026679, -1.396076783457473, 2.9249474984248645, -28.197501281465374, -29.479137025968498, 2.043051393599544, 18.6734441768084, -28.02770722238039, 10.68352026707974, 4.386185373761705, -14.939639233526236, 0.13667642071802147, -6.159998304032454, -4.780550733058316, 10.164857507270629, 10.175349365919484, 9.039358051232048, 1.731465439996703, 8.547146689190628, -1.5893143784007995, -6.346496158460732, -2.4039803415276775, 3.3794309609040436, 1.301588329229054, 19.295476457330558, 5.962963525437882 ], "mae": [ 4.202521667209775, 8.3271635030373, 4.116716096576134, 4.67544880591563, 18.74214065652711, 13.31236843323, 4.340426074351326, 5.443080657586408, 4.562380044826032, 32.32627192155111, 29.51602862619854, 5.2966058583190065, 18.6734441768084, 28.283235408872077, 10.804748078183756, 4.482206505216338, 18.631383131027608, 4.019456603560398, 7.7924078337030735, 6.372542288778696, 10.183076789065954, 10.175349365919484, 10.748575888065503, 6.1636829083550735, 8.547146689190628, 4.5559442548048, 12.590829056008646, 5.24372024021634, 4.076538050010227, 5.281482797390875, 19.295476457330558, 5.962963525437882 ], "mse": [ 39.917027700695904, 195.08946576463148, 80.75932269270896, 49.57628257682163, 863.5700992078936, 298.50173919435485, 89.18358425215278, 97.29456131211066, 69.56083754421886, 3049.15863334005, 1106.6440312791656, 73.08554848666637, 758.9697317937462, 1701.3025057865966, 275.77921510643495, 58.552479275390255, 1220.1619420584593, 42.63863299446968, 166.96245992693338, 234.3234377706097, 309.8352052549331, 227.3124623628232, 190.56641748793754, 82.41883179002022, 211.7010457726256, 74.6813166191016, 318.6589184699873, 152.22847757779493, 36.15224739446345, 82.340365266724, 591.7683062979255, 84.90019665570058 ], "var": [ 202.0339430194861, 865.8894595421983, 419.5833840238385, 192.730232711842, 3240.5432769934955, 640.9266900904652, 156.06427424981572, 349.38151510915947, 378.04267933924405, 824.6026298792226, 359.2816410022277, 514.2315519826399, 1066.544405321544, 649.6984453364256, 530.4879820617114, 186.7433352201529, 565.0191502424401, 143.76975653284507, 264.6728519854475, 294.45693762635887, 525.1296986412976, 534.249505791556, 1779.8636124392149, 252.14060046437828, 350.6864815582859, 221.541698669602, 1795.8816911054507, 141.99730684830692, 173.98755468832974, 297.23979195932367, 2247.4221697024955, 224.70093531043943 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 6.95912101407194, "crpss": 0.06308707390561952, "rps": 0.5251572939733631, "rpss": -0.16223429321596172, "mean_bias_mm": 0.017810712793915773, "mean_mae_mm": 10.523292574789835, "mean_rmse_mm": 20.026229151582484, "spread_error_ratio": 1.2604615400921841, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.1482682211464294, "pit_histogram": [ 0.15326, 0.02777, 0.04099, 0.05264, 0.06086, 0.08197, 0.12217, 0.18623, 0.18045, 0.09366 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.48422366337418865 } }, "distribution_full": { "ethiopia": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0031928687766356, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.005191210917687478 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 1.1728311472321988, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.1765803327235617 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.7112625149721072, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.39842801763805374 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9934794441398869, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.06663804271681566 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0697519117460272, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.13953341102906774 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": 1.3114019309128393e-17 } }, "ondj_domain": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 1.003096106844674, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.005413175355301627 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 1.2027296374820202, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.18473251587058317 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.6668258607166796, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.46166353020116063 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9704917960085406, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.0707856568226237 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0620123349039274, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.1583782799136698 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": 0.0 } } } }, "loci": { "training": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 2.467572221475301, 4.070973337890992, 10.736440480331002, 2.354715929378331, 10.169354376065892, 3.9668598621752396, 3.301564769848049, 5.361215520472427, 3.6333187235056914, 17.648847396828472, 16.908766684442412, 3.9716162898780785, 7.474483877594488, 23.652838600124124, 4.184213576094764, 2.640034504268362, 12.551959809323789, 3.921215893815765, 4.082895323541354, 4.942570691339185, 4.648652208297372, 4.078871729043036, 7.8413967109968565, 3.206404479653246 ], "crps_clim": [ 3.069144896531585, 3.3858676721658623, 10.074246020518368, 2.773361990265274, 15.332066536235006, 3.604951743610606, 2.9367188887863067, 5.050819710999868, 3.0258348712866763, 21.012210746646392, 16.801010670653753, 3.7894449827302754, 4.194423053287697, 25.04733364035127, 3.8894382629868667, 3.276619104881488, 13.516550290161696, 3.1815721446141088, 3.8044427745910094, 3.8505600739044343, 3.8413777807512575, 3.029724174279054, 7.270640397516081, 3.55202677848655 ], "rps": [ 0.38067129551841844, 0.46897732083883265, 0.5459364713297143, 0.40455965693520557, 0.42282032834100053, 0.5042082995105968, 0.5436697898176768, 0.6071751345195872, 0.5507122028573637, 0.5126466341585173, 0.6438121790314062, 0.5777035469999202, 0.6131181577805382, 0.5924719947879025, 0.46050453127510255, 0.2628254066802964, 0.48202180838782704, 0.4737217943961561, 0.47030826516539276, 0.6227025485312938, 0.47775268353114625, 0.4584253131585862, 0.5059075290756982, 0.4760264140149594 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4625629239522452, 0.36451731789334524, 0.44125991446339186, 0.36766510384083156, 0.4796288408201259, 0.5018388021804165, 0.38147740265907437, 0.45785739893807914, 0.37358783510004456, 0.5052606258044735, 0.5036552005735562, 0.4358799343390295, 0.5001476339830571, 0.5372757885017574, 0.4967176371371437, 0.4833984207814198, 0.48412488996957304, 0.42298688095193837, 0.47887418976886764, 0.4007717998366474, 0.49873748259985246, 0.40202165211061897, 0.4457035075298269, 0.452337281302436 ], "bias": [ 5.022099187472899, 3.700041807393691, -9.937340516237349, 1.892563066594617, 2.8738524809885977, 11.187153619060998, -0.5834985690289208, -0.6912763944252497, 3.0149659422923287, -18.074671188756817, -17.224505502425895, 0.6451780602931755, 17.769922824669145, -26.915903339882867, 10.020805504500458, 2.434097309392024, -12.166282586443918, -1.7927854786574817, -1.1560817180246143, -3.753940971231968, 11.124715349179528, 9.795331823986361, 2.247787722125124, 3.972014824459068 ], "mae": [ 5.552225206847038, 6.615159154751231, 12.479248006248381, 3.4778284864921174, 16.33990444195376, 11.213612899635791, 3.750580144323595, 5.986449781154017, 5.199195398605879, 21.25370432610559, 18.984388294484113, 5.240943391191494, 17.782615143197646, 27.341510376877718, 10.113636171772047, 4.235143709182203, 15.34010153175183, 4.524819969014462, 4.746818853336756, 5.966514484890169, 11.171678340458978, 9.856042074751686, 12.203260408962688, 6.201220889619547 ], "mse": [ 72.1332939538098, 165.80578835341507, 722.9759292673045, 37.4225551780573, 652.2295986942057, 261.1974608067461, 52.46960470350342, 105.62067707898447, 80.66313450405764, 1647.1823759859108, 624.727795307908, 92.99040719583864, 781.8503137334395, 1687.745526509991, 297.6593945241988, 59.5332706766732, 999.467557878071, 82.43571592113376, 78.89305873492812, 168.89911848971624, 381.1004525743799, 224.9083428023732, 312.8261616633244, 88.35493222072213 ], "var": [ 235.4731355579232, 486.4697494739791, 404.7625997356137, 173.8164387445943, 1279.7226448614808, 704.0130393448015, 254.12609742935163, 446.5941695283986, 432.1307615637213, 781.5174905452392, 381.11323059547345, 381.60566587662834, 1000.2199565805113, 397.86357467455895, 500.46646118087205, 336.3540957850786, 522.9169536964633, 276.47963093267884, 255.8294587768106, 205.1147119875018, 656.0016855832987, 477.041422535203, 777.66283878549, 310.08010990307713 ], "zero": [ 0.21282233869346875, 0.20995839051444762, 0.23113260728309343, 0.21201513265247665, 0.15035412369253226, 0.1702820466764997, 0.28414102446635303, 0.23273964288472898, 0.22370214104568792, 0.18615220209544953, 0.21274208680511825, 0.2115294477263136, 0.179046378465588, 0.19687290054391615, 0.2167990694462292, 0.26564809984688315, 0.2044981170486658, 0.2667608638567809, 0.24181823973910463, 0.22763422478683343, 0.2055104753852159, 0.19309304360110624, 0.18715340868356994, 0.2118870986209394 ] }, "crps": 6.992365958182677, "crpss": 0.008821692717753016, "rps": 0.5024449711101308, "rpss": -0.10850887484727956, "mean_bias_mm": -0.27482319761279445, "mean_mae_mm": 10.232358395233698, "mean_rmse_mm": 20.082218987160726, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0983868158126535, "zero_fraction": 0.21392887935670846, "correlation": 0.030994769276446912, "pit_histogram": [ 0.01972, 0.03833, 0.05969, 0.08052, 0.10443, 0.1259, 0.14634, 0.14333, 0.13435, 0.14739 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.4034649864255313 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 2.288564983554969, 5.110408233544061, 3.945015773591596, 2.3724636342810825, 14.342016598589721, 4.659306088364692, 3.698537627301257, 4.727172554745123, 3.6080236698185484, 25.141111659958288, 26.238133945555415, 4.049475210639898, 8.049578822044857, 24.373380434404215, 4.851757225083431, 2.0897592792222546, 13.474892290875117, 2.6796938144172917, 7.056814263511757, 5.59027652569303, 4.276315963056512, 4.458456201514507, 6.207842162814022, 3.610850350590935 ], "crps_clim": [ 3.134642569756797, 4.0368873592733205, 3.423335292543674, 3.3738802296500032, 27.106814106125587, 3.7253738930894196, 3.249450552047323, 4.035569151257637, 2.965809999169824, 30.070724508266622, 25.830159399346183, 3.580613889817456, 4.549159240055732, 25.77593644509466, 4.188541565312743, 3.9517287715065783, 14.718801138616833, 2.963090816144978, 5.6582471562161265, 4.848776670389135, 3.9672709222205658, 3.261152428150299, 5.930891894544658, 4.158239602390194 ], "rps": [ 0.3630697769617327, 0.5221324150623352, 0.4882369202163014, 0.38693443548501666, 0.24657095797396172, 0.5433487298511988, 0.564936680872897, 0.6306517091509303, 0.7257269143322853, 0.5400806316845436, 0.8370938653086563, 0.7531420149356087, 0.6300423243715043, 0.6545521249573413, 0.5713543028838123, 0.1523056988267258, 0.4160356679300109, 0.25475398879630606, 0.7346116860648115, 0.6322513822105591, 0.38812014534929573, 0.5026181905028273, 0.4770081529948356, 0.5632538480195589 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4612583063145251, 0.36325581037926996, 0.3548837655357383, 0.3845191261452081, 0.5442138131835412, 0.47392048479376536, 0.3369486554725916, 0.41421918051654527, 0.37845219279141734, 0.4951720255695432, 0.5339101560355515, 0.4478677807232184, 0.5122698437472656, 0.5463196106078548, 0.5151171353423272, 0.5367285502205256, 0.4864254375606979, 0.45042529314649876, 0.45228609712142287, 0.40382417088714717, 0.4727414090541605, 0.43354624566717376, 0.435070354227705, 0.43462262504974214 ], "bias": [ 4.291343869172172, 5.174329806320314, 1.0056370714543093, 4.535533271271644, -6.323950049668278, 14.251559010822223, -2.050366435231715, -0.6333454139372152, 3.690382722212521, -27.675072686444977, -28.985793623837672, 2.713353576226193, 20.105843408168937, -27.753529334162852, 11.452647607675605, 5.033542307819782, -14.401120017437869, 0.7401681715294647, -5.520887603304601, -4.294929792334491, 10.987529437234699, 10.934971049851512, 10.675025048971467, 2.439415822374811 ], "mae": [ 4.431725471728472, 8.871724574948555, 4.205783540222013, 5.065279466986571, 19.078927005788778, 14.251559010822223, 3.992030942621453, 5.383736823143763, 4.9877314306947085, 31.717780850247102, 29.047126698531795, 5.51471914370165, 20.105843408168937, 27.996940659640703, 11.646739248125073, 5.135559309014386, 18.063837770305927, 4.088348789962726, 7.417750438982005, 6.060910272294938, 11.011831746745855, 10.934971049851512, 11.989725329190083, 6.339719521897262 ], "mse": [ 49.01270162132115, 232.406005649301, 83.64067327612084, 59.73378566599388, 881.2415090719127, 347.5219755267696, 79.83276468383637, 94.18904508540221, 84.46934200777572, 2945.703760253022, 1080.6603938141031, 81.03041017239495, 866.3800264038911, 1664.5302314680473, 326.60874609166035, 74.81165125436969, 1155.2768759064438, 41.66475523501497, 154.67445060426118, 222.08644516103607, 361.9947989831846, 267.365532081319, 239.40209359363388, 89.32055548718766 ], "var": [ 148.31178502018207, 673.9582205303633, 536.9617775801596, 223.75185001779502, 1959.659935200557, 1006.1082817180114, 224.5566390690613, 433.85078982608644, 515.9370423360089, 842.7372848905447, 401.14003256548295, 437.6946051695113, 1170.2626886989299, 525.8589763156591, 481.68909006527326, 335.7101205982831, 481.8981070214398, 310.31949856515405, 339.188783036684, 298.43333462156846, 801.4840007632396, 481.28881760720435, 1277.4859990840787, 238.2115238858763 ], "zero": [ 0.2992143664791535, 0.2854458773971412, 0.34798646570288977, 0.2979043937718614, 0.18143094973479146, 0.20192890779626985, 0.3756942471035755, 0.32741423460005725, 0.34532249019580913, 0.24880864227822663, 0.32419098611847585, 0.2994037243702133, 0.25124830815261867, 0.272204433369697, 0.29618155180070077, 0.3692101706828858, 0.2922764594816216, 0.3620575987540713, 0.34608410063660144, 0.3040597365614727, 0.3029912072509248, 0.25797482914753134, 0.239057856185468, 0.2860558040610569 ] }, "crps": 7.787493638048857, "crpss": 0.058463235594792606, "rps": 0.5241180235309607, "rpss": -0.15741946986147304, "mean_bias_mm": -0.40032136563558396, "mean_mae_mm": 11.555845937650687, "mean_rmse_mm": 21.87422239484374, "spread_error_ratio": 1.1099061180012644, "zero_fraction": 0.2964228059013798, "correlation": 0.12824605829551777, "pit_histogram": [ 0.01169, 0.03795, 0.06166, 0.07908, 0.08988, 0.11012, 0.1463, 0.15562, 0.17046, 0.13723 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.43947385037413855 } }, "operational": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 3.159719514964116, 3.369570838008589, 10.344536031965019, 4.150168490110188, 4.386190681925566, 5.540783214890247, 6.316456685884602, 2.4058249269757965 ], "crps_clim": [ 3.840649245962226, 2.9635126140043284, 11.660524877797739, 2.9183695971477044, 3.477601142846446, 4.259321637104846, 3.1351156438044105, 3.1728418151724775 ], "rps": [ 0.3747581385874935, 0.5065482185587485, 0.5277049826849234, 0.4790178218675461, 0.4689274683034812, 0.5762984708303619, 0.600717912597497, 0.2988181919649736 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.524230481898705, 0.4593885401867237, 0.5017173979879027, 0.4051068206667376, 0.4317667103339062, 0.4153152702181896, 0.47288784486408364, 0.4886335324867942 ], "bias": [ 7.629682329083096, 1.2057685330421388, -6.104203794706863, -2.2820183583255305, -0.6354724466730284, -2.7091114404826544, 13.077816325380617, 5.259475353371879 ], "mae": [ 7.718640085603017, 4.779955218142794, 12.04951647103205, 4.621778716009671, 5.937628553880426, 6.595132330850785, 14.181218859058948, 5.48294117814064 ], "mse": [ 185.80027408796224, 57.87714703998763, 401.5646379963923, 116.609867987067, 153.25299540779287, 170.17789838974443, 412.63975108111254, 72.62258452239477 ], "var": [ 372.04091741857275, 323.49607578914845, 777.9939228414408, 167.35564488094982, 256.0340840154012, 364.648912503464, 910.9117340126147, 372.8598797878541 ], "zero": [ 0.2415317166306307, 0.23441483519671816, 0.18633180191860588, 0.25594385754506727, 0.2565748913423004, 0.22098233816190035, 0.1619664094108737, 0.24995541551612155 ] }, "crps": 4.959156298090516, "crpss": -0.11982955321249689, "rps": 0.4790989006743781, "rpss": -0.03615650767985601, "mean_bias_mm": 1.930242062586207, "mean_mae_mm": 7.670851426589791, "mean_rmse_mm": 14.011357698811944, "spread_error_ratio": 1.5024630600564017, "zero_fraction": 0.22596265821527725, "correlation": 0.2174561684089047, "pit_histogram": [ 0.0087, 0.03691, 0.04901, 0.08359, 0.11141, 0.14714, 0.16405, 0.14687, 0.1198, 0.13254 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.4435883783495721 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 3.4107158497844106, 3.9043421919812222, 11.60290978924148, 4.2983841428965475, 2.2813480755519815, 3.4416913947696535, 8.51125758311604, 2.645914456195519 ], "crps_clim": [ 4.156168553465009, 3.538722242103148, 14.589550778766494, 3.336016465541637, 3.2225107652008003, 2.991934313605765, 3.4730598185838906, 3.692380181189609 ], "rps": [ 0.3068298160712649, 0.5860863164217404, 0.5362419283341796, 0.44452068503243797, 0.3084684141195663, 0.47705069464985667, 0.6562535096724608, 0.3020539811906459 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5378222677027902, 0.46540376292499014, 0.544167761935176, 0.42259006334453925, 0.4687251767879638, 0.37920455847261086, 0.47625759961208325, 0.48392303022441024 ], "bias": [ 8.900924200793254, -1.0773359777315668, -4.894325040916249, -1.9504023861986886, 3.968643033762406, 1.8279226501037402, 19.22485773605766, 6.351316839382312 ], "mae": [ 8.900997356868524, 4.543631714979593, 12.52257921862033, 4.93943652040851, 4.572176326654636, 5.483931348862278, 19.22485773605766, 6.351777227793144 ], "mse": [ 229.59480876342212, 71.31023911289188, 318.8754273612465, 141.8221131100371, 44.28239423353008, 82.65329467056858, 601.623671679045, 97.64004161507974 ], "var": [ 458.4491148668309, 281.228676952865, 1249.4188793357741, 183.36639454447354, 261.597246483059, 429.30287952935305, 1238.5386175001042, 339.48247971755603 ], "zero": [ 0.3216195430339455, 0.32736773122947427, 0.24352942860379861, 0.3338324294272513, 0.34768804708762374, 0.30715479413923596, 0.1826166446266873, 0.32812513598168574 ] }, "crps": 5.012070435442107, "crpss": -0.028107967197902317, "rps": 0.4521881681865191, "rpss": 0.04250525956171414, "mean_bias_mm": 4.043950131906608, "mean_mae_mm": 8.317423431280584, "mean_rmse_mm": 14.088124389649165, "spread_error_ratio": 1.6724802768582305, "zero_fraction": 0.29899171926621276, "correlation": 0.35353867195717237, "pit_histogram": [ 0.01281, 0.05128, 0.05376, 0.09109, 0.10871, 0.14122, 0.15956, 0.15243, 0.14017, 0.08896 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.404198976200035 } }, "full": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 2.3469743229691518, 3.956784964058507, 10.791628795639689, 2.329757566919975, 9.973055106539094, 3.7491530062848497, 3.3225739600824937, 5.530717675389381, 3.480841255790537, 18.33595665070167, 17.32813727998548, 3.8833049778940687, 7.13976321108711, 23.78823442429451, 4.018577977818742, 2.4846461680249394, 12.950939130957478, 3.9277453275776426, 4.094734386517152, 4.848005261420494, 4.492199826386409, 3.8393251836440223, 7.323760501762124, 3.165813049814811, 3.0864903522983576, 3.2963864177132387, 10.31738439022462, 4.114573143082946, 4.223443412773449, 5.45934728645431, 5.961810700526334, 2.3184601311875817 ], "crps_clim": [ 2.8572571807760165, 3.1865323464856155, 10.383599749568983, 2.5619649424777258, 15.714771517105724, 3.3680154534657665, 2.765672743937594, 5.300295600051972, 2.8388059419872405, 21.851414927820926, 17.1664341858879, 3.7370645400554223, 3.942032189422852, 25.551792834412236, 3.6290536020800803, 2.8900168246080717, 14.071028267301827, 3.0762760995886107, 3.6632019409978067, 3.7186259353467004, 3.564689968626687, 2.839593289203478, 7.19932849431782, 3.43605995135926, 3.8609579743608737, 2.8299285708739577, 12.23962820019987, 2.794216883727665, 3.293480646075853, 4.260034824273769, 3.0060012627324424, 3.1366202401449357 ], "rps": [ 0.37900401905417547, 0.5037470848310734, 0.563759302761443, 0.4232949795600611, 0.39479671308469844, 0.48750575091462806, 0.558557645108712, 0.6333909174053142, 0.5809814429421964, 0.5209920779479601, 0.6471905531056092, 0.5797032994628794, 0.6246495254496756, 0.5842310740310613, 0.46657953137190616, 0.282335188865891, 0.49311201099522894, 0.5326021463003491, 0.4898907466969613, 0.6304202356236327, 0.4855852120569923, 0.4703514370707708, 0.4826659113703605, 0.49093296707529616, 0.3635868847898454, 0.50637168475234, 0.5431779150060784, 0.518095753969062, 0.4782321660363814, 0.5914518781676542, 0.591109598796046, 0.2918555993005828 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.42597328472277496, 0.3506474587875527, 0.4500587082647611, 0.32853144302379395, 0.4793056617036147, 0.4798374907327482, 0.3541533787330895, 0.4731556449679077, 0.3927115296130284, 0.5155155067499355, 0.5115992154696631, 0.4372196861501219, 0.5134082784354855, 0.5544160313927202, 0.4916821403090456, 0.46169725845021364, 0.48685690274881205, 0.4101509392762119, 0.472007224293684, 0.4017865592049955, 0.4940497459609742, 0.37193747436870483, 0.4453370890748853, 0.4489261212476537, 0.5165803609034532, 0.4475995691106898, 0.5228420289369178, 0.41806933442655636, 0.4281627076345683, 0.41613299701643813, 0.4679489278571733, 0.4937218068532966 ], "bias": [ 4.574558582440999, 3.2691773003696687, -10.33471539487442, 1.640350540088828, 1.142969206648629, 10.265993360936635, -0.7986027797023046, -1.2403421337060296, 2.552381091447816, -18.66587279564941, -17.454227003098378, 0.1389537112401332, 16.532524261163083, -27.24523725056459, 9.46793450327342, 2.1512199933050455, -12.692978919934474, -2.1253095988001167, -1.4435814958920292, -4.173826857833162, 10.4442495564196, 8.919969468756348, 0.9576010390848217, 3.4609600302978136, 7.345898135118617, 0.8218467518110657, -7.2853433676509685, -2.6538732410694483, -1.0744743598105675, -3.244638555560245, 12.588360296361511, 4.924705719093884 ], "mae": [ 5.093539226187097, 6.221025393193067, 12.473620628577153, 3.362740731548938, 15.565879870731598, 10.293345299846715, 3.7423992739229335, 6.364661604368594, 4.655577543208969, 22.096968515556874, 19.5203894283473, 4.904432001400076, 16.54371605050552, 27.509619503424265, 9.552925086449312, 3.659381197084536, 15.580007180214945, 4.4811177889064675, 4.64883368022786, 5.81588671215686, 10.486273190013291, 8.974336216999687, 10.958204819619665, 5.876430678327901, 7.412674324003158, 4.425307011964198, 11.8599363453269, 4.5325085274928725, 5.448336473384975, 6.372876980716579, 13.358735725118304, 5.0706905632199835 ], "mse": [ 66.38572654106258, 141.7468819377349, 721.5412277558752, 34.664567686799806, 617.591689579705, 229.4736177869095, 55.822401179769784, 120.72589250926967, 67.74395166484537, 1746.8275739884532, 652.5796067984329, 82.24875615174398, 716.4479613200631, 1698.5851798705, 285.49119429784855, 45.87559653293516, 1051.0547484996935, 79.99522713351121, 79.99189711847393, 164.56660796499114, 358.15549278692066, 198.10942695757944, 256.07054038770445, 86.01469321759731, 182.0641036038557, 53.225800315510455, 381.9302694886988, 116.86552657122252, 141.48537043121303, 163.80969901324744, 365.4397183513453, 64.6282515054479 ], "var": [ 218.49672360809583, 457.93055128055903, 368.28305778393155, 165.46129894411428, 1115.228854305683, 600.6365299299883, 247.6996108312936, 401.70058564472464, 400.7918167194527, 727.0299254761043, 364.7150095500702, 356.79473672138755, 851.4882439187261, 368.5419959006528, 479.60226958495974, 319.5119178133009, 485.0550881580785, 247.947696204414, 236.28257446519797, 185.4696002002232, 570.5473791982083, 415.117488452654, 661.7872293151192, 283.74289937684176, 354.2849253888077, 300.8549866879972, 684.1626188871925, 152.93966884356493, 227.64158645956022, 322.59614818681604, 870.5539688921181, 351.81745868172914 ], "zero": [ 0.2124844112060729, 0.2078026139618186, 0.23060942189026126, 0.21068324615657322, 0.14807016271056705, 0.1696736343483644, 0.2819101690950733, 0.23049047098657394, 0.22110279559513113, 0.18487085218701305, 0.21062222506428757, 0.21070632574004367, 0.17849980745584387, 0.19383222249821663, 0.2147603302403626, 0.26339200765197346, 0.20194935726381308, 0.2650180547105846, 0.23869717734548018, 0.22407537712229855, 0.2042832820408391, 0.19275921089157702, 0.1834350926495841, 0.2110651125309401, 0.23861410391058394, 0.2344331063588986, 0.1892785818384167, 0.2541075425621075, 0.2553091434847159, 0.21919532750860773, 0.15809288073058292, 0.2470127742383982 ] }, "crps": 6.433766432681912, "crpss": -0.005598124851593944, "rps": 0.5059425391845271, "rpss": -0.11949495630476736, "mean_bias_mm": -0.28854281894650713, "mean_mae_mm": 9.276949299126457, "mean_rmse_mm": 18.56337051742369, "spread_error_ratio": 1.1184705032119762, "zero_fraction": 0.21521365068673765, "correlation": 0.05923512581244711, "pit_histogram": [ 0.01679, 0.03427, 0.05264, 0.07651, 0.10271, 0.13211, 0.15477, 0.14969, 0.13793, 0.14258 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.4395791895247083 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 2.09565832511285, 4.896024742586209, 3.8877951292674715, 2.250965631385916, 14.535868621789293, 4.10716238238328, 3.809147958949744, 4.7925141900487995, 3.535313009373525, 26.071340778705345, 26.82964830478054, 3.955146126860693, 7.254569963059234, 25.09090213885848, 4.318188330710916, 1.976638077679522, 14.095479217447222, 2.6921003015978204, 7.203336666551018, 5.730788737169522, 3.8994177195735684, 3.966671808843184, 5.696743596504422, 3.6242846586860678, 3.2206005384795096, 3.9879980084545243, 11.893610662088632, 4.376044402020416, 2.1569036325760704, 3.370336660827988, 8.066358687107835, 2.511938269200098 ], "crps_clim": [ 2.8175577367545985, 3.9021745191382493, 3.3034198610233836, 3.0658976041547716, 27.95661134379484, 3.362418886433096, 3.1100028100913844, 4.094088898027647, 2.797475683019447, 31.07358038415444, 26.285415911798307, 3.5258493082035396, 4.105091866216406, 26.621986127319055, 3.742042717578652, 3.517340209583741, 15.411353025851831, 2.673910822235419, 5.68084916383337, 4.795224659874851, 3.5512909190087862, 2.905159579919633, 5.944050077935008, 4.117186323773333, 4.037389747963682, 3.4488650528891722, 15.716463704166275, 3.2680339255822792, 3.0328683611021146, 2.8141009404740527, 3.4247012737105678, 3.5844382254089533 ], "rps": [ 0.37457881653137304, 0.5499887730685038, 0.5299677520485088, 0.40215923158893585, 0.24842567759325399, 0.5037177382127778, 0.5891184613145305, 0.6741537873888227, 0.7847415903772729, 0.548730854075789, 0.8416778946645002, 0.7625750039420408, 0.6411969387284445, 0.6511220033378621, 0.5655794728741265, 0.188169656769992, 0.44391070412162104, 0.35897201233224185, 0.7842285135314433, 0.6719370376874226, 0.40296756292788377, 0.5262540549154378, 0.4734586105439646, 0.6032179524675355, 0.3084743306734204, 0.6185273356548241, 0.5550736149177791, 0.4967966189508555, 0.3187717690587325, 0.4929978250162153, 0.6509958788465774, 0.3029521417072149 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4298711247134212, 0.33951771473196274, 0.3580324977963315, 0.3440075796304816, 0.5614000118944327, 0.42739667374627904, 0.31854005006647745, 0.4274262614020923, 0.4024604048415598, 0.5070497366915091, 0.5496038326833845, 0.44190671299078577, 0.5231727861116291, 0.5620037572257898, 0.5267904535413438, 0.5284018227909777, 0.48322502696648467, 0.40592076688279005, 0.44404886379291797, 0.4240421871939146, 0.4646575370925135, 0.37305364252256173, 0.4173925133581936, 0.4446715007416715, 0.5288605928241447, 0.4618809475548823, 0.5613869457241275, 0.4470539791818982, 0.45697580457229925, 0.3508328348614358, 0.47125617734541536, 0.4764068519243777 ], "bias": [ 3.555086595558025, 3.8920458530944906, 0.01378606526135499, 3.7586302144359705, -9.471550703378309, 12.55382987740361, -2.6290016542765264, -1.6103536693469807, 2.7467681656697445, -28.92346578860408, -29.744323548927014, 1.6600367584971865, 17.985578954720328, -28.69069104584884, 10.15709607208738, 4.329506123939353, -15.438366815831742, 0.05811867887190489, -6.195428150139629, -5.085866042598463, 9.748216529543331, 9.590982124589615, 8.314320259568008, 1.5680698401823567, 8.248289004434904, -1.8059388697206105, -7.087688667481013, -2.591983418913144, 3.29687711964663, 0.9728276280768311, 18.111842541756562, 5.723694590273821 ], "mae": [ 3.8200063068095367, 7.975288308443525, 3.852882350170434, 4.505893502692162, 18.65073470830367, 12.55382987740361, 4.139873213231186, 5.40857110912852, 4.518328585876136, 32.47770910651618, 29.77885301113957, 5.1316598831389895, 17.985578954720328, 28.831429923009463, 10.324554102270962, 4.422250024812351, 18.458619622282455, 3.82272861581911, 7.707828030999158, 6.277803326669221, 9.798203587406379, 9.591109572260214, 10.260155434427798, 6.124555282095396, 8.249938564395089, 4.482148046808195, 12.703140590953517, 5.025070250653404, 3.964212558286443, 4.98990209113008, 18.111842541756562, 5.7260936521553205 ], "mse": [ 38.87530816097078, 185.85819659221582, 79.1414921784122, 49.74038934801019, 877.3248224011268, 278.5781699673794, 87.13596272793464, 99.0840370435225, 69.10706228318864, 3094.328894312371, 1124.2319789345886, 72.29114451331974, 724.9394541980017, 1736.6668564380732, 265.44746362836497, 59.647910377764546, 1231.7345221032426, 40.64500429959839, 165.48058308401096, 234.22044565816412, 303.3164578017682, 217.4276618294842, 174.8878446981443, 83.9193898369734, 209.6285811493378, 74.29712572178232, 322.002636743333, 150.1157812269748, 36.210270600241984, 80.28232759007332, 529.5809957278349, 85.1454401500624 ], "var": [ 126.50091534162732, 574.9267657514413, 461.85871451717003, 189.7820480567747, 1635.2875365070859, 833.598588687974, 192.60561998494984, 364.87736984863415, 445.02095530107783, 746.7949441299477, 351.6328402785278, 381.9333157402375, 961.2373678588261, 455.5867568178471, 405.3636860460145, 283.5006076297029, 426.1616154731924, 258.377118119906, 293.47468695650696, 258.00547519972946, 667.5375536409996, 405.4939054432126, 1052.0604126003323, 205.05256758696052, 412.7151749916153, 242.22672831048538, 1063.3294762770538, 156.8896401149477, 219.9125900402423, 367.5603666473426, 1158.4103788941945, 303.295257794159 ], "zero": [ 0.3050363915429484, 0.2868839605480491, 0.3544333004416813, 0.3042846595901632, 0.1840432181372382, 0.20823294206150614, 0.37818361551920515, 0.3315720101572207, 0.3478159579545283, 0.2536577503216603, 0.32723502723973236, 0.3048806757833802, 0.25846475240067607, 0.2734377252228082, 0.299647898415376, 0.37198616598548895, 0.2946992953279386, 0.3658755419914192, 0.3469739815848005, 0.3038403167756749, 0.3081177175639942, 0.26498067632546096, 0.23917776075828834, 0.29278134991718563, 0.32218562190607164, 0.3345184787914653, 0.25512887106410265, 0.33480755698478754, 0.3498942864894333, 0.31092254456029694, 0.18072399950974222, 0.32899950524115623 ] }, "crps": 7.059359289958741, "crpss": 0.04959190171679628, "rps": 0.5270449879959345, "rpss": -0.16641198007913327, "mean_bias_mm": -0.40590798054546684, "mean_mae_mm": 10.302212335492655, "mean_rmse_mm": 19.98538075954386, "spread_error_ratio": 1.1153853931680684, "zero_fraction": 0.3007319861285463, "correlation": 0.14996811471004035, "pit_histogram": [ 0.01082, 0.0344, 0.05566, 0.076, 0.09114, 0.1147, 0.15021, 0.15972, 0.17343, 0.13392 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.46396139555899196 } }, "distribution_full": { "ethiopia": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9731124645309787, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.44337443460820214 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 1.164345804670696, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.6382576387254468 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.2642729245639063, "area_mean_abs_log": 5.152223937013669 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 0.8057170015707258, "area_mean_abs_log": 3.1134876549022197 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.1580261621783536, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.9955750208716525 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.032916666666666684, "area_mean": 0.20962096505144684 } }, "ondj_domain": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9528685349690602, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.07476530191520989 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0981685047585386, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.20138242027565476 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean_abs_log": 7.547301236461079 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 0.7582842078561768, "area_mean_abs_log": 4.786401288296329 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.1518674609437063, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.438707164317567 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.10514705882352937, "area_mean": 0.3007319861285459 } } } }, "eqm": { "training": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 2.195051111006379, 3.724963820346599, 10.649083043859097, 1.6849712911447061, 10.217199915176462, 3.8708981020139333, 2.6537724110719054, 5.029854348889586, 3.2275339060085497, 18.195485236341717, 17.339949378661995, 3.762484855161662, 7.580635139485876, 23.96667190931339, 4.195621237235778, 2.2139435673610564, 12.613578800762129, 3.3936536420361114, 3.649850006958261, 4.517776343803573, 4.626496496476116, 3.7143833284548657, 7.825498542557862, 2.918535611195243 ], "crps_clim": [ 3.069144896531585, 3.3858676721658623, 10.074246020518368, 2.773361990265274, 15.332066536235006, 3.604951743610606, 2.9367188887863067, 5.050819710999868, 3.0258348712866763, 21.012210746646392, 16.801010670653753, 3.7894449827302754, 4.194423053287697, 25.04733364035127, 3.8894382629868667, 3.276619104881488, 13.516550290161696, 3.1815721446141088, 3.8044427745910094, 3.8505600739044343, 3.8413777807512575, 3.029724174279054, 7.270640397516081, 3.55202677848655 ], "rps": [ 0.47156697215688104, 0.3700201522561507, 0.44985658142854057, 0.3223171327680439, 0.3523533685198665, 0.6362404494727594, 0.432063502719812, 0.5157030230728938, 0.4164752692587017, 0.38879911669068196, 0.48998161174297244, 0.45371818340954617, 0.6939607201713605, 0.4190718497369741, 0.5085105239212, 0.2770418531797055, 0.4493257361685147, 0.4644984561610275, 0.4597340556024946, 0.4770062293792188, 0.5725683256432526, 0.4461401422975079, 0.42338038422925106, 0.4369621991558068 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4625629239522452, 0.36451731789334524, 0.44125991446339186, 0.36766510384083156, 0.4796288408201259, 0.5018388021804165, 0.38147740265907437, 0.45785739893807914, 0.37358783510004456, 0.5052606258044735, 0.5036552005735562, 0.4358799343390295, 0.5001476339830571, 0.5372757885017574, 0.4967176371371437, 0.4833984207814198, 0.48412488996957304, 0.42298688095193837, 0.47887418976886764, 0.4007717998366474, 0.49873748259985246, 0.40202165211061897, 0.4457035075298269, 0.452337281302436 ], "bias": [ 5.373256868951341, 4.5587718511377275, -9.49439974154488, 2.852187026498972, 0.5021699042803818, 11.251649618727859, 0.3613154772669552, 0.0736592619903664, 3.5188601973651648, -18.69384418038578, -17.167179763514568, 1.4588000558032335, 16.77169939987164, -26.740009779512178, 10.473750557856336, 3.539530024906159, -11.928004267513463, -0.7881977363655306, 0.03588486515643289, -2.8905853302090883, 10.880560335194128, 9.985498089068688, 2.3602354677438724, 4.3218813565105325 ], "mae": [ 5.835587899282419, 6.82366554137462, 12.562095081965483, 3.657651551709797, 15.75458543825544, 11.252645353263391, 3.9589463741740887, 5.97832574219837, 5.4753127192655136, 22.126956049099398, 18.644391088527215, 5.325640760729459, 16.77169939987164, 27.186928705827818, 10.510435888850735, 5.273526648845344, 15.656895186762034, 4.467187534254333, 5.268754846064279, 5.7605185329139585, 10.899943646225012, 10.060827299121016, 12.17823768629792, 6.274503511114039 ], "mse": [ 72.19547618531996, 174.21333437632285, 723.5946606293805, 37.6868546805081, 646.139144351491, 243.3912135558478, 52.88074952174645, 103.099975788129, 93.66925063020734, 1728.2693202399741, 607.0953085616176, 91.72640956821414, 754.0349209675309, 1680.900632887475, 308.7157425731253, 74.03077171621777, 1002.0077774260938, 80.5450963879151, 76.68345659726836, 173.38616647188204, 371.5765448760537, 232.76192645402665, 319.83196717205044, 86.98745803723128 ], "var": [ 182.56143821919028, 502.31146948567994, 364.8567576156518, 155.09037218469712, 731.163894366146, 474.01828171205784, 218.6471203444399, 413.0068061889267, 427.0457718037169, 576.4497347543173, 355.4785673576693, 440.6232237753056, 663.8443205863499, 361.8942902622671, 410.5161253767763, 295.072246103588, 477.0143130512293, 224.1042411152104, 255.2227674412627, 215.916693583377, 455.5809158057811, 413.13358671869315, 714.6703361200722, 219.57533821235268 ], "zero": [ 0.004922915488471208, 0.0033100000572500194, 0.0028007143401342464, 0.003044143387739202, 0.0025649051991196293, 0.002349858032296083, 0.006406978295329816, 0.002667391687471668, 0.00312384964800682, 0.003205638789988958, 0.0027798252368843365, 0.0030989467062273045, 0.001521051541942787, 0.003395636942253222, 0.0037327150802592577, 0.003926953004611804, 0.0032620489317574655, 0.003869664837327095, 0.0036057922450309613, 0.004086751801446586, 0.002353826186725447, 0.0033619954724146807, 0.004197201780202256, 0.003450359386346662 ] }, "crps": 6.82366216855512, "crpss": 0.03273570660592229, "rps": 0.45530399329763177, "rpss": -0.004505062929974546, "mean_bias_mm": 0.0257287316368456, "mean_mae_mm": 10.321052603583055, "mean_rmse_mm": 20.140572815066225, "spread_error_ratio": 0.9903168899859665, "zero_fraction": 0.0033766318366348965, "correlation": -0.008207863756477541, "pit_histogram": [ 0.12867, 0.09143, 0.08836, 0.0838, 0.0918, 0.09441, 0.10154, 0.11175, 0.10173, 0.10651 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.10040826146781891 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 1.9972591496556955, 4.978315682545497, 3.73246192255641, 1.7825355600202266, 14.715701612444542, 4.647310503548327, 3.255613036307977, 4.289668011597226, 3.0836083066495332, 26.178388319523936, 26.85752414697462, 3.869257230546831, 8.248120158047543, 24.90082855985011, 5.120803857829774, 1.7881152151258268, 13.666055115705543, 2.392275551921879, 6.523789810706721, 5.509601645621674, 3.984259712032072, 4.139383747820651, 6.408469732951214, 3.3350470436864494 ], "crps_clim": [ 3.134642569756797, 4.0368873592733205, 3.423335292543674, 3.3738802296500032, 27.106814106125587, 3.7253738930894196, 3.249450552047323, 4.035569151257637, 2.965809999169824, 30.070724508266622, 25.830159399346183, 3.580613889817456, 4.549159240055732, 25.77593644509466, 4.188541565312743, 3.9517287715065783, 14.718801138616833, 2.963090816144978, 5.6582471562161265, 4.848776670389135, 3.9672709222205658, 3.261152428150299, 5.930891894544658, 4.158239602390194 ], "rps": [ 0.504124063772249, 0.38817681461338427, 0.3734354480602909, 0.332216750005988, 0.11080113103666331, 0.7417986261096766, 0.4278783911300959, 0.46925662924626954, 0.5195417302003092, 0.3550845696649682, 0.5577800322206926, 0.4812490548926307, 0.7121965589019124, 0.39258985953001546, 0.605402856999404, 0.20817959897884014, 0.4324171940937091, 0.32285466144146907, 0.6202762087839283, 0.4499779789935371, 0.43773289818159056, 0.5445333868335499, 0.4251995826003509, 0.41860050991261794 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4612583063145251, 0.36325581037926996, 0.3548837655357383, 0.3845191261452081, 0.5442138131835412, 0.47392048479376536, 0.3369486554725916, 0.41421918051654527, 0.37845219279141734, 0.4951720255695432, 0.5339101560355515, 0.4478677807232184, 0.5122698437472656, 0.5463196106078548, 0.5151171353423272, 0.5367285502205256, 0.4864254375606979, 0.45042529314649876, 0.45228609712142287, 0.40382417088714717, 0.4727414090541605, 0.43354624566717376, 0.435070354227705, 0.43462262504974214 ], "bias": [ 4.959927065747759, 6.180528627791443, 1.7305427721927076, 5.434064883990934, -10.068206761518677, 13.837661638408477, -1.0871560824836606, 0.40151790632826573, 4.858359357849406, -27.95299082241979, -28.54560304747253, 3.606421831068701, 19.335055764014673, -27.750760844719483, 12.228113748405145, 6.460293826045013, -13.774780722177224, 1.3828437284369748, -4.08899860904653, -3.436304838001087, 11.047835070492829, 11.48037256830943, 10.735541975842484, 2.944370766468585 ], "mae": [ 5.0099230434633215, 9.118431645880884, 4.631005793060923, 5.6409805084852165, 19.393568514953554, 13.837661638408477, 4.244742135222332, 5.307201815457263, 5.667224047120096, 32.8123478159325, 28.601116071263885, 5.7881403770226765, 19.335055764014673, 27.97082646356872, 12.322183517076505, 6.460293826045013, 18.343293506712165, 4.3541476362906995, 7.228941153960455, 6.362837908452844, 11.047835070492829, 11.48037256830943, 12.251426835203532, 6.3424655044027665 ], "mse": [ 52.974400496620625, 239.1361533780979, 93.78930554620072, 64.810212067362, 924.8357905328438, 304.2970838174485, 80.46891502319177, 87.97484313057635, 107.54691356244129, 3067.270086640517, 1046.6650806883774, 91.38662334628467, 848.023026283463, 1667.1786709041676, 360.02077808384905, 97.36047196652692, 1141.625599357895, 43.472555239299375, 135.54221895710214, 237.4649224428769, 350.49381967944277, 285.96550501144094, 252.9887872515743, 87.92356464744793 ], "var": [ 134.44004230744565, 729.5097809181467, 513.6558208057826, 208.9732314373538, 1010.600936292647, 617.9090760685978, 225.94749395501955, 430.3249401526209, 545.6436306091364, 647.5805477106404, 426.7799390708724, 519.7508011171363, 830.1945654611187, 479.57623930818994, 500.41441550266785, 320.48101285543873, 535.8953372505404, 237.50478447862267, 362.46261576548824, 313.45213938306483, 585.8428224104234, 477.36901573722264, 1119.2582581540858, 212.0612132203648 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0022292135740660116, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 7.725183068069595, "crpss": 0.06599681381306233, "rps": 0.45130435567517263, "rpss": 0.0033762919033143435, "mean_bias_mm": -0.003389591518589974, "mean_mae_mm": 11.814667631700033, "mean_rmse_mm": 22.05033571934058, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0134669305087058, "zero_fraction": 9.288389891941715e-05, "correlation": 0.09666918736206027, "pit_histogram": [ 0.12072, 0.09867, 0.08851, 0.07751, 0.09078, 0.09127, 0.10239, 0.10959, 0.11223, 0.10834 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.10653979085087832 } }, "operational": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 3.0433178707916464, 3.0284862462426076, 10.359167799880032, 3.5587034719315778, 3.8701018351590086, 5.023258205985429, 6.1911537847837375, 1.9611831643040523 ], "crps_clim": [ 3.840649245962226, 2.9635126140043284, 11.660524877797739, 2.9183695971477044, 3.477601142846446, 4.259321637104846, 3.1351156438044105, 3.1728418151724775 ], "rps": [ 0.45004312126786694, 0.46426514921641265, 0.40156481678895245, 0.4421807477592584, 0.4367120924388845, 0.4616473862765949, 0.672135091407969, 0.33569114650357645 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.524230481898705, 0.4593885401867237, 0.5017173979879027, 0.4051068206667376, 0.4317667103339062, 0.4153152702181896, 0.47288784486408364, 0.4886335324867942 ], "bias": [ 8.196334090837755, 1.742896606244215, -6.058010549005079, -1.2784741010742595, 0.11372781047823231, -2.328317281499882, 12.562183831219869, 6.173675150237277 ], "mae": [ 8.249499406346285, 5.03851446215429, 11.888247768016194, 4.974873761530626, 6.393241362274973, 6.658921008342794, 13.625748650782565, 6.355344243564809 ], "mse": [ 195.276744219851, 59.78395620059732, 388.5513607611052, 116.82932310293398, 160.66532033345356, 172.13057485456642, 374.9954194352488, 85.19017296998841 ], "var": [ 338.07435565749483, 271.2962927761103, 628.1952511007514, 139.17794921536483, 203.6574556212491, 289.8380344479359, 705.8716169161892, 310.939342209451 ], "zero": [ 0.00504069260492708, 0.00446522583468504, 0.0029484751758644696, 0.005861329292547627, 0.0049017321556796625, 0.003627016333640148, 0.003387437461324554, 0.006018785032687166 ] }, "crps": 4.629421547384761, "crpss": -0.04537198495564754, "rps": 0.4580299439574394, "rpss": 0.00940973465873507, "mean_bias_mm": 2.390501944679766, "mean_mae_mm": 7.898048832876567, "mean_rmse_mm": 13.934771579926169, "spread_error_ratio": 1.3632714116803772, "zero_fraction": 0.004531336736419468, "correlation": 0.2123278807217817, "pit_histogram": [ 0.15475, 0.09572, 0.10126, 0.09753, 0.08095, 0.08772, 0.10435, 0.10946, 0.08791, 0.08036 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.13964043605733023 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 3.4164632157784656, 3.7369653272222276, 11.801853253138786, 3.7634619504538263, 2.0406342313123083, 3.1124292413485732, 8.505257128239041, 2.205205456504715 ], "crps_clim": [ 4.156168553465009, 3.538722242103148, 14.589550778766494, 3.336016465541637, 3.2225107652008003, 2.991934313605765, 3.4730598185838906, 3.692380181189609 ], "rps": [ 0.4488606579267219, 0.4967443674468759, 0.34024653970126945, 0.42236358569160254, 0.35386283074377517, 0.370472657373449, 0.7511472463853817, 0.3514380096405181 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5378222677027902, 0.46540376292499014, 0.544167761935176, 0.42259006334453925, 0.4687251767879638, 0.37920455847261086, 0.47625759961208325, 0.48392303022441024 ], "bias": [ 9.734775178176761, -0.2709220208142309, -5.669698165335085, -0.9531129086844267, 4.766476717621701, 2.2602270265754543, 18.481423544394666, 7.581461697518157 ], "mae": [ 9.734775178176761, 4.908072319542964, 12.28045650022241, 5.276625822170759, 5.438397773947103, 5.801248889153165, 18.481423544394666, 7.581461697518157 ], "mse": [ 248.18193550721168, 72.49292118816166, 304.2363577420424, 138.69043191736833, 60.17125447335017, 87.74859736708257, 538.703246947151, 117.22058269973508 ], "var": [ 448.1348121875652, 275.1204956616292, 907.0526663850687, 165.03155435811635, 220.75655308993672, 373.8713004727511, 978.4031533278784, 334.9507360413759 ], "zero": [ 0.0004773727816653232, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00030688362016734097, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 4.822783725499743, "crpss": 0.010719734264608483, "rps": 0.44189198686369924, "rpss": 0.06430711143841439, "mean_bias_mm": 4.491328883681625, "mean_mae_mm": 8.687807715640748, "mean_rmse_mm": 13.99752356598348, "spread_error_ratio": 1.5370906968222111, "zero_fraction": 9.803205022908302e-05, "correlation": 0.3198876467107036, "pit_histogram": [ 0.14736, 0.12314, 0.12266, 0.13258, 0.08934, 0.08914, 0.09137, 0.09016, 0.06895, 0.04531 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.2514700422917071 } }, "full": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 2.16388415565916, 3.4606540879782917, 10.678767900366228, 1.637275092059381, 10.069071676491658, 3.7038304475982273, 2.5661656559269597, 5.175666004879089, 2.9670951839509563, 18.973290780334036, 17.649735446353375, 3.5169649862293593, 7.161797797659917, 24.303013418301212, 4.047510395506296, 1.9418818987358435, 13.017206867177112, 3.23320125262818, 3.5597991559203264, 4.21763448563296, 4.5249006340195725, 3.48015533615517, 7.1168952907939005, 2.9763064613032113, 3.1656484573875465, 2.8787462428722224, 10.394270795979262, 3.4161912046964913, 3.6211215827518854, 4.8955165550095145, 5.66705297062795, 1.9047781158518697 ], "crps_clim": [ 2.8572571807760165, 3.1865323464856155, 10.383599749568983, 2.5619649424777258, 15.714771517105724, 3.3680154534657665, 2.765672743937594, 5.300295600051972, 2.8388059419872405, 21.851414927820926, 17.1664341858879, 3.7370645400554223, 3.942032189422852, 25.551792834412236, 3.6290536020800803, 2.8900168246080717, 14.071028267301827, 3.0762760995886107, 3.6632019409978067, 3.7186259353467004, 3.564689968626687, 2.839593289203478, 7.19932849431782, 3.43605995135926, 3.8609579743608737, 2.8299285708739577, 12.23962820019987, 2.794216883727665, 3.293480646075853, 4.260034824273769, 3.0060012627324424, 3.1366202401449357 ], "rps": [ 0.43772570125176175, 0.3780250128301929, 0.4497166709377109, 0.3085719887156494, 0.32179138529477785, 0.5990721037243066, 0.42929582094931595, 0.5255210297515404, 0.4415562640771339, 0.37784266936375765, 0.48395736902801173, 0.44346528326377016, 0.7098940550597007, 0.4069680815536365, 0.5165483329783719, 0.2782778736641068, 0.43838398005099005, 0.4706068598590234, 0.4715998797416822, 0.4758481412510116, 0.5843581859040753, 0.41327925818570316, 0.3822890815880571, 0.4467489158497338, 0.45335437146138213, 0.45681901112688533, 0.39604515537215645, 0.4702354861491814, 0.433987000528046, 0.45744977040777246, 0.6671164588837226, 0.3364999512432886 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.42597328472277496, 0.3506474587875527, 0.4500587082647611, 0.32853144302379395, 0.4793056617036147, 0.4798374907327482, 0.3541533787330895, 0.4731556449679077, 0.3927115296130284, 0.5155155067499355, 0.5115992154696631, 0.4372196861501219, 0.5134082784354855, 0.5544160313927202, 0.4916821403090456, 0.46169725845021364, 0.48685690274881205, 0.4101509392762119, 0.472007224293684, 0.4017865592049955, 0.4940497459609742, 0.37193747436870483, 0.4453370890748853, 0.4489261212476537, 0.5165803609034532, 0.4475995691106898, 0.5228420289369178, 0.41806933442655636, 0.4281627076345683, 0.41613299701643813, 0.4679489278571733, 0.4937218068532966 ], "bias": [ 5.045350937677878, 3.8480132427666813, -9.932048971945406, 2.6325868435075472, -1.4209529841908257, 10.489403179786143, 0.22687514122812774, -0.6160801997999689, 2.857856205973125, -19.252083785463505, -17.40184665320724, 0.6528839076218889, 15.648622548893625, -27.1372262728785, 9.63662435886225, 3.162791008204268, -12.577680599632414, -1.0341400183610365, -0.30054803781567574, -3.3160118120807685, 10.353462742483025, 9.035179908426862, 0.9392268750247553, 3.8883058129251022, 7.965513786812551, 1.3826274930170006, -7.31271728151239, -1.6406109481906357, -0.28269861236294486, -2.7886693341719857, 11.972482701095023, 5.8604206808389305 ], "mae": [ 5.445700916606125, 6.168069979580558, 12.457758173599522, 3.4058904815992745, 15.279133433727175, 10.490380019562622, 3.8069496729061743, 6.325674736731184, 4.706205992389863, 22.8360843119368, 19.10272827830085, 4.9162738988625305, 15.648622548893625, 27.407742646961804, 9.675264532929528, 4.579562826238474, 15.928291739618588, 4.267866242426033, 5.093926462949874, 5.379559522760898, 10.363429575171152, 9.114501879683338, 10.916440571010323, 6.047674265408403, 8.002151119451637, 4.644696812695529, 11.708926829039301, 4.694588918925966, 5.839509771841813, 6.335963424660383, 12.729358077486658, 5.954862924764451 ], "mse": [ 70.85146691949593, 141.6201568114036, 715.0547810043511, 35.74971188257061, 656.2736348086572, 226.4648375032608, 52.523246367032556, 117.20103531476961, 73.10945676806493, 1818.0775963287886, 632.8653748182018, 82.82757672833002, 678.8799834882892, 1699.1508019099085, 280.7706223541313, 57.62423080320609, 1062.8829679207006, 73.67028871047266, 75.85648045436184, 158.48178507885652, 353.98703795904174, 202.17450009431613, 259.8155065566827, 91.30009659866028, 198.55032642277146, 53.71788395886789, 374.6988145705281, 110.96008483129933, 143.78559817305808, 160.15453190925246, 323.6164056876115, 78.26731123174645 ], "var": [ 157.61581911332144, 411.00944154147055, 303.6902868098197, 137.21542267555876, 658.9144835078181, 420.5914438971887, 187.737462732595, 339.1028682717849, 351.48841634157975, 520.4479526851887, 303.04653628756347, 351.11624684897396, 576.6583559351033, 312.02022546883984, 331.50742833939216, 249.98789025339354, 396.6661330893331, 195.90001640130356, 206.60305006459797, 171.9044123798197, 406.9232057585755, 334.49720425610155, 599.4051485569668, 186.04446528193458, 292.02722146880143, 235.27749946416878, 558.0315789866809, 119.18974731368743, 172.9883051421083, 251.80689640176925, 660.6029714125865, 270.7784146068597 ], "zero": [ 0.003741977115049784, 0.0026676255810469786, 0.0023212366838033013, 0.0023458863304617788, 0.002189897993730043, 0.0019220058101366306, 0.0037896565087584405, 0.002614151535395233, 0.0028807968407203884, 0.00256281661337032, 0.0024572863013884085, 0.0028581858631167418, 0.0011993107711841507, 0.0028315731755881096, 0.0031710379136818652, 0.0033633185499319287, 0.002941423120437215, 0.003227711271927069, 0.003068369589805476, 0.0032301009123616624, 0.0020875996508468234, 0.0025630253526322303, 0.0038237567276085873, 0.0027547447580671854, 0.003969421123779848, 0.0034212008152069875, 0.0026065446627461563, 0.004738549943965159, 0.004101353280392125, 0.002773465665867056, 0.002863401481756597, 0.004716103006821801 ] }, "crps": 6.190188448026161, "crpss": 0.03247313048349443, "rps": 0.4519640984389518, "rpss": -5.7297907302800155e-05, "mean_bias_mm": 0.01827849573535878, "mean_mae_mm": 9.352305955897513, "mean_rmse_mm": 18.5918027417064, "spread_error_ratio": 0.982204518762873, "zero_fraction": 0.002993860467237065, "correlation": 0.02648879836333127, "pit_histogram": [ 0.12456, 0.08848, 0.0934, 0.08843, 0.08658, 0.09668, 0.0969, 0.11396, 0.10642, 0.10458 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.09904754702615479 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 1.8445441238659357, 4.568995564585042, 3.4861953985645706, 1.671471667474349, 15.223533661340197, 4.050466279579874, 3.201063166132702, 4.280709470185627, 2.938132609598647, 27.139616052920886, 27.21733992370182, 3.6494568871977195, 7.339192165163836, 25.722884890778744, 4.504670779684138, 1.6194573827770347, 14.357473178190096, 2.2220260147076734, 6.524374715084594, 5.405647657573732, 3.6453809137405235, 3.5943743073236405, 5.556946816612362, 3.486249914555813, 3.3607390551015888, 3.7310894039987685, 12.199412672180248, 3.7646016562410085, 1.8920909858135573, 2.9364768565844392, 7.87378506399863, 2.14640148353365 ], "crps_clim": [ 2.8175577367545985, 3.9021745191382493, 3.3034198610233836, 3.0658976041547716, 27.95661134379484, 3.362418886433096, 3.1100028100913844, 4.094088898027647, 2.797475683019447, 31.07358038415444, 26.285415911798307, 3.5258493082035396, 4.105091866216406, 26.621986127319055, 3.742042717578652, 3.517340209583741, 15.411353025851831, 2.673910822235419, 5.68084916383337, 4.795224659874851, 3.5512909190087862, 2.905159579919633, 5.944050077935008, 4.117186323773333, 4.037389747963682, 3.4488650528891722, 15.716463704166275, 3.2680339255822792, 3.0328683611021146, 2.8141009404740527, 3.4247012737105678, 3.5844382254089533 ], "rps": [ 0.4732858594120373, 0.3725524561165727, 0.3922216372659701, 0.31925404616370257, 0.11193095481757008, 0.6386801101599493, 0.4344991776097544, 0.4888861578008674, 0.5666689141074456, 0.34551497956456695, 0.5524237231687434, 0.46318124044119396, 0.7046602283948401, 0.38464243736052073, 0.6157739230304542, 0.2220154375145915, 0.4247964712587162, 0.3211282918604997, 0.6387211303297515, 0.4866278704170159, 0.4376723808312788, 0.4580430506360559, 0.38554734899980736, 0.4366274878778553, 0.440665912123429, 0.5048400601286978, 0.33212478428331726, 0.46645548011683036, 0.3446627436413211, 0.3509478288783874, 0.7356122230945731, 0.35036810675013397 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4298711247134212, 0.33951771473196274, 0.3580324977963315, 0.3440075796304816, 0.5614000118944327, 0.42739667374627904, 0.31854005006647745, 0.4274262614020923, 0.4024604048415598, 0.5070497366915091, 0.5496038326833845, 0.44190671299078577, 0.5231727861116291, 0.5620037572257898, 0.5267904535413438, 0.5284018227909777, 0.48322502696648467, 0.40592076688279005, 0.44404886379291797, 0.4240421871939146, 0.4646575370925135, 0.37305364252256173, 0.4173925133581936, 0.4446715007416715, 0.5288605928241447, 0.4618809475548823, 0.5613869457241275, 0.4470539791818982, 0.45697580457229925, 0.3508328348614358, 0.47125617734541536, 0.4764068519243777 ], "bias": [ 4.325131035661231, 4.620169713209091, 0.5385945337739341, 4.653030929468418, -12.916790190358565, 12.400521923462069, -1.5763014472386663, -0.8159169756382593, 3.808882595781842, -29.047556290236372, -29.18511018753875, 2.317131304061648, 17.46070183506241, -28.619595016311802, 10.601707934327731, 5.6429784483463346, -15.035267075093156, 0.8978496269011289, -4.853118931394136, -4.196302392230925, 10.082677431491406, 9.885353026559192, 8.495537756277553, 2.132642305538073, 9.101563546320028, -1.0238472207844362, -7.7192352828419875, -1.628813397513014, 4.146454128467663, 1.3984757290365004, 17.40727578832366, 6.9261081462192875 ], "mae": [ 4.410284857262357, 8.078380931156124, 4.0973749267446955, 4.979713000284789, 19.700303067337856, 12.40157823908119, 4.1475279080083, 5.268529159852185, 4.920391962845981, 33.412434764171, 29.238170751660114, 5.220548483026023, 17.46070183506241, 28.755958358845373, 10.700790377838606, 5.6429784483463346, 18.756133331504383, 3.96660865587641, 7.463199614063725, 6.210504117111275, 10.082677431491406, 9.885353026559192, 10.677696561736258, 6.268206615441253, 9.101563546320028, 4.736139252117308, 12.49629893141817, 5.147556395721475, 4.8324803731239525, 5.221309107922779, 17.40727578832366, 6.9261081462192875 ], "mse": [ 45.93567111026509, 186.03557666206552, 84.05773441351997, 56.09108981045841, 994.8487388787541, 256.555649623397, 80.3237426840584, 91.5747148306926, 81.83073701981289, 3195.047701145698, 1086.6131790714855, 76.86203647369982, 708.5482546232996, 1734.4294988006893, 279.80191409665343, 78.31257576712504, 1234.4973787988738, 38.92941991962005, 145.32994913398707, 233.6122470203479, 306.26742439042187, 225.1207847249613, 189.32768578766056, 88.26775260620796, 233.21670724337363, 72.2426190471866, 314.9785868800448, 141.0255948415118, 50.41861529220883, 82.03265875320089, 468.7625845528702, 105.51584366374877 ], "var": [ 111.9391776865841, 579.2684404501633, 412.97894155206046, 173.97725614612975, 898.5794504399154, 552.1707364394927, 178.4108975038828, 333.5703333986449, 439.1991458945236, 571.1464014653596, 350.39730537200506, 407.59199696865136, 711.8286184396213, 408.07354718169984, 381.4261121133645, 255.0707015517679, 422.42356939204325, 201.88224607098553, 283.947379443064, 250.02403617895507, 519.4207925612446, 370.95408604140374, 953.068363508189, 170.38347406915756, 378.39093382208296, 225.17035199806097, 822.1338889384657, 136.79447793635993, 179.95944800671836, 314.3638921124372, 912.0806224119848, 277.41012193591945 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00017048916149798226, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 6.911087522462232, "crpss": 0.06955386749687631, "rps": 0.4437822641923891, "rpss": 0.017858131107702513, "mean_bias_mm": 0.007029166597160241, "mean_mae_mm": 10.55046181145231, "mean_rmse_mm": 20.12959160948433, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0083568415785897, "zero_fraction": 5.327786296811946e-06, "correlation": 0.12326265824214751, "pit_histogram": [ 0.11361, 0.09287, 0.09708, 0.09036, 0.08283, 0.09697, 0.09655, 0.11537, 0.11035, 0.104 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.08668079175220447 } }, "distribution_full": { "ethiopia": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0027340046814308, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.005781796596089052 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9949884247925637, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.012014750774714363 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.991768881939624, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.018699134301003843 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9999975628271479, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.00446713218667186 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0826365079951186, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.13997731303564637 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": -0.0025988251680535432 } }, "ondj_domain": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0029062642374802, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.007746199362015349 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9937105365243983, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.014628234070486017 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9890941826248834, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.020172032157187873 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9999520959149877, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.003912166611080962 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.1119475925783464, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.18920241149236083 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": 5.327786296811946e-06 } } } }, "gqm": { "training": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 2.9025507636709995, 3.76732464999299, 10.376032862203466, 2.034269529989839, 10.194670142186029, 4.449260871466859, 2.7791727028240936, 4.648762318175209, 3.176314800326901, 17.843080448669895, 16.503287176382763, 3.6487297293006073, 7.95786264603852, 23.655787694921493, 4.766932631691684, 2.521721550782567, 12.40596826908733, 3.4252207153993304, 3.797478306947472, 4.413110377789884, 5.300093853170232, 4.190493908080338, 7.679750412726932, 3.160257545827985 ], "crps_clim": [ 3.069144896531585, 3.3858676721658623, 10.074246020518368, 2.773361990265274, 15.332066536235006, 3.604951743610606, 2.9367188887863067, 5.050819710999868, 3.0258348712866763, 21.012210746646392, 16.801010670653753, 3.7894449827302754, 4.194423053287697, 25.04733364035127, 3.8894382629868667, 3.276619104881488, 13.516550290161696, 3.1815721446141088, 3.8044427745910094, 3.8505600739044343, 3.8413777807512575, 3.029724174279054, 7.270640397516081, 3.55202677848655 ], "rps": [ 0.5139320461032727, 0.43958428302985675, 0.44822038825520627, 0.3675317915403721, 0.4712392780634027, 0.6570950336596104, 0.4984253852571977, 0.5079246038589905, 0.4826929359105342, 0.38917501136808075, 0.494466678164261, 0.5743585922826147, 0.7596776883866486, 0.44617549154361313, 0.6097841168046529, 0.32156881202991516, 0.39651542239648, 0.4312895230346978, 0.5519855440611741, 0.5626413827240326, 0.6671076758372985, 0.49035315039304384, 0.4810717771713552, 0.5445040223500389 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4625629239522452, 0.36451731789334524, 0.44125991446339186, 0.36766510384083156, 0.4796288408201259, 0.5018388021804165, 0.38147740265907437, 0.45785739893807914, 0.37358783510004456, 0.5052606258044735, 0.5036552005735562, 0.4358799343390295, 0.5001476339830571, 0.5372757885017574, 0.4967176371371437, 0.4833984207814198, 0.48412488996957304, 0.42298688095193837, 0.47887418976886764, 0.4007717998366474, 0.49873748259985246, 0.40202165211061897, 0.4457035075298269, 0.452337281302436 ], "bias": [ 5.6964534542396805, 4.401488380033364, -9.554509056675093, 3.141240807911694, 0.6188417231709774, 11.153158304193004, 0.30955448772152067, -0.5513304441436825, 3.2989295927355258, -18.523020868566196, -16.94678856165938, 1.2428273238133578, 16.73831774017542, -26.677715958007074, 10.366454795424746, 3.2748746124805046, -12.388280663570551, -1.0217310996065865, -0.21947932016257704, -2.7822123181738636, 11.21853010604159, 9.643064581422236, 1.7595815470807976, 4.672250592310409 ], "mae": [ 6.186982902656614, 6.687942025108743, 12.544115116009856, 3.9231070477232812, 15.397881257575891, 11.161098777087304, 3.8694379120416658, 6.042478489192443, 5.258690513444975, 22.00213595817131, 18.406742843268432, 5.417070696556303, 16.743423858816296, 27.141477977365923, 10.412539476546767, 5.0015394285795525, 15.523250267779709, 4.574382945348782, 5.275985056378253, 5.736230099943411, 11.248683272525797, 9.738438026965582, 11.815000859740742, 6.393961710238197 ], "mse": [ 80.7877399010235, 159.72736414222413, 720.3910326992769, 42.44131438592577, 620.259548030255, 253.081594325066, 49.843267946522545, 106.39857412316391, 81.58326258109442, 1716.1926704466048, 594.7657654708642, 92.49104746762215, 721.84129100445, 1679.6235696203812, 302.02542736919077, 70.33272278103168, 1007.7697750072363, 84.52849164051787, 79.08842973338356, 164.64105604246336, 379.2993101386753, 220.88998991419683, 293.27833106269543, 91.4119907019311 ], "var": [ 149.40942606605998, 405.5766755303832, 300.284088083, 146.7564988368824, 936.1490908200159, 478.08537236779904, 197.8899033307379, 338.096816621162, 336.65940832056947, 556.1125775906035, 291.25471993205497, 317.4372105874914, 641.6045878477663, 273.8988405662454, 338.0360757018271, 258.0694884651138, 377.60441284027405, 198.62089389178755, 210.4530133321967, 166.94827817223685, 427.05641920841794, 318.09758330812537, 619.0118378173747, 206.23869401541262 ], "zero": [ 0.1666889057933278, 0.16157355161840764, 0.17017185028560944, 0.1619735744609807, 0.11264495770023136, 0.12829908431112966, 0.18725073629494546, 0.1629706916931613, 0.1692218336464086, 0.1398873083463633, 0.14311711504310778, 0.17366904607185668, 0.13937670497290586, 0.1457904916905121, 0.1707178801946088, 0.1819918241624689, 0.15801026673551619, 0.19108862739809104, 0.17651148309929507, 0.16445811101430144, 0.155823910921751, 0.15147655422104905, 0.14121538472452147, 0.16308873170583554 ] }, "crps": 6.899922246152226, "crpss": 0.021925726825407832, "rps": 0.5044716930927646, "rpss": -0.1129802885020601, "mean_bias_mm": -0.04706251007542406, "mean_mae_mm": 10.270941521627742, "mean_rmse_mm": 20.01321809718912, "spread_error_ratio": 0.9397551609283413, "zero_fraction": 0.15904244275443277, "correlation": 0.0009390499530478225, "pit_histogram": [ 0.07418, 0.07626, 0.09206, 0.09669, 0.09651, 0.09816, 0.10071, 0.10365, 0.12238, 0.13938 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.1322426200284816 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 2.7302655033778267, 4.828494574667755, 3.592069700443382, 2.32618104498471, 14.663215283275603, 5.33875705884048, 3.2387174699235683, 4.114938886512663, 3.028221150545182, 26.24266174341232, 25.91122034309074, 3.6691945133505373, 8.675878256832807, 24.235369969312924, 5.727223465296615, 2.1734755767660503, 13.58367793359731, 2.5608995697131967, 6.305028187418827, 4.961205790610187, 4.6982331035933, 4.906018784909424, 5.897545916676896, 3.350801151475444 ], "crps_clim": [ 3.134642569756797, 4.0368873592733205, 3.423335292543674, 3.3738802296500032, 27.106814106125587, 3.7253738930894196, 3.249450552047323, 4.035569151257637, 2.965809999169824, 30.070724508266622, 25.830159399346183, 3.580613889817456, 4.549159240055732, 25.77593644509466, 4.188541565312743, 3.9517287715065783, 14.718801138616833, 2.963090816144978, 5.6582471562161265, 4.848776670389135, 3.9672709222205658, 3.261152428150299, 5.930891894544658, 4.158239602390194 ], "rps": [ 0.41708001825735863, 0.5130233384819475, 0.4845584429079441, 0.3878631087586765, 0.2552844645043474, 0.6110994791319135, 0.5651173781881808, 0.6014639220560221, 0.6778540140356399, 0.5213749414390898, 0.6864323484681313, 0.7411555917513803, 0.7164816871848126, 0.585383032244888, 0.657360721207969, 0.2101092566622433, 0.3913753601835447, 0.2957721258675978, 0.6722049647064291, 0.5768566153346745, 0.421868738335022, 0.5663125147451337, 0.5174442523299968, 0.5157035571416798 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4612583063145251, 0.36325581037926996, 0.3548837655357383, 0.3845191261452081, 0.5442138131835412, 0.47392048479376536, 0.3369486554725916, 0.41421918051654527, 0.37845219279141734, 0.4951720255695432, 0.5339101560355515, 0.4478677807232184, 0.5122698437472656, 0.5463196106078548, 0.5151171353423272, 0.5367285502205256, 0.4864254375606979, 0.45042529314649876, 0.45228609712142287, 0.40382417088714717, 0.4727414090541605, 0.43354624566717376, 0.435070354227705, 0.43462262504974214 ], "bias": [ 5.39072375139572, 5.447537350040351, 1.5411773007444365, 5.7340183865766265, -9.051442933621232, 14.031276073727447, -1.0664963847013047, 0.03304072159120349, 4.380597273181855, -28.038042296910675, -28.2649840870009, 3.455088658404313, 19.467418781347877, -27.50397942196168, 11.772601204441521, 5.956741053863597, -14.05292169031332, 1.633786422154947, -4.6382708716192775, -3.4966183788679572, 11.300383833556278, 11.249765664256296, 9.892902522514403, 3.701159937652755 ], "mae": [ 5.451541950503365, 8.677415601950521, 4.600103450167472, 5.862872719226788, 19.519485323146593, 14.031276073727447, 4.063873976711109, 5.365368097400365, 5.174579031169281, 32.62773540971801, 28.327617579627432, 5.816626139997028, 19.467418781347877, 27.763807351901317, 11.880452573219507, 5.984992016976285, 18.246767959059166, 4.485820956234269, 7.271439730813164, 6.038766987143252, 11.301566758670972, 11.249765664256296, 11.647890213630339, 6.529175792480072 ], "mse": [ 64.65977098927414, 215.44052408348378, 87.19296105846371, 71.4317686012881, 911.3329264553006, 335.2575951262175, 73.29750299230936, 89.50897557185293, 88.29758935233171, 3058.2603288099444, 1032.0871757633802, 84.89971906236903, 803.4735043691791, 1657.5690770199212, 332.57478310979275, 90.21974120916612, 1151.32755598452, 45.381899029822385, 141.98534099195712, 217.51440429390712, 364.7879553615403, 275.3283412591903, 212.51891209171353, 96.51145747731395 ], "var": [ 116.91580938120968, 544.2192938553588, 428.6673959740632, 194.4400015334057, 1487.878203157971, 697.0833546351138, 186.05438138257642, 382.3947240179686, 429.2195259034271, 602.5808203653941, 336.87684267104305, 373.1549243115832, 842.8104268028334, 363.59559678169927, 357.46306973487833, 265.3007686533961, 383.99748300579665, 216.73758933401797, 288.4951415929918, 236.6542191507376, 558.6506211834504, 367.5591204242749, 1076.3225102937167, 217.83921769721437 ], "zero": [ 0.2778475731063656, 0.2780763642514372, 0.3074752592063039, 0.27962481174613235, 0.17143347225069455, 0.21603450100384683, 0.3075620057915226, 0.28416716590366387, 0.30132845100045463, 0.24434726365387008, 0.2514041116779672, 0.2952456101474409, 0.24896318711169535, 0.2431121466243641, 0.287841269648793, 0.3104351575289368, 0.27205776884839367, 0.3148690451322559, 0.29863826683218836, 0.2634583761511018, 0.2845694514817971, 0.2543683414283561, 0.23119719581336026, 0.2761077326861495 ] }, "crps": 7.781637290776156, "crpss": 0.05917128962586515, "rps": 0.5245491614135259, "rpss": -0.1583715595761408, "mean_bias_mm": -0.04685571373111319, "mean_mae_mm": 11.724431672461582, "mean_rmse_mm": 21.890694189221367, "spread_error_ratio": 0.9759763025982886, "zero_fraction": 0.27084018870946214, "correlation": 0.11297507454932894, "pit_histogram": [ 0.04393, 0.06932, 0.06579, 0.07418, 0.08015, 0.10069, 0.11051, 0.11468, 0.16962, 0.17114 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.333278428727887 } }, "operational": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 3.6901824301165562, 3.309843427708106, 9.798204675470537, 3.674637339759603, 4.166396455581949, 4.968572650880586, 6.330898129407839, 2.3666437713340356 ], "crps_clim": [ 3.840649245962226, 2.9635126140043284, 11.660524877797739, 2.9183695971477044, 3.477601142846446, 4.259321637104846, 3.1351156438044105, 3.1728418151724775 ], "rps": [ 0.5464098677854375, 0.5959459876746005, 0.46359394258538034, 0.46315632782776606, 0.46934679596284234, 0.47430413396484594, 0.7511101456107468, 0.3824524739147418 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.524230481898705, 0.4593885401867237, 0.5017173979879027, 0.4051068206667376, 0.4317667103339062, 0.4153152702181896, 0.47288784486408364, 0.4886335324867942 ], "bias": [ 8.258616898604535, 1.848145968563274, -6.190134862541286, -1.2636789963846835, 0.09969614888540845, -2.1330460151184387, 12.129016257968306, 5.818187842377346 ], "mae": [ 8.337086794974306, 5.119085282378283, 11.67972293850521, 4.857402466300531, 6.434011291124381, 6.774697915285897, 13.197301951851717, 6.0114801600347 ], "mse": [ 196.58779163589256, 59.97645827301715, 384.50393852418995, 114.39495445023563, 162.4050770347413, 172.26913377052378, 347.17559719045795, 81.0233139338102 ], "var": [ 277.998170592503, 234.37286335458182, 629.4507880378438, 125.55362115821498, 189.97143267914544, 263.5992910964822, 674.3396440080191, 274.06626650839354 ], "zero": [ 0.17793233707044961, 0.17986530820501648, 0.1486298424493187, 0.18285549847809504, 0.18730095344622, 0.1679437888147641, 0.12855609855250888, 0.1786825804535479 ] }, "crps": 4.7881723600324015, "crpss": -0.08121958501370141, "rps": 0.5182899594157951, "rpss": -0.1209157724175185, "mean_bias_mm": 2.3208504052943075, "mean_mae_mm": 7.801348600056879, "mean_rmse_mm": 13.776502934402785, "spread_error_ratio": 1.3259249631500847, "zero_fraction": 0.16897080093374012, "correlation": 0.22157046266516173, "pit_histogram": [ 0.06087, 0.06252, 0.12299, 0.10486, 0.09957, 0.11299, 0.0981, 0.09712, 0.12063, 0.12037 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.16365794589696459 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 4.105030478572349, 3.852724131160405, 11.038115983997182, 3.7973030353554584, 2.552420897129254, 3.3406711106914426, 8.238072941973751, 2.6789391434351972 ], "crps_clim": [ 4.156168553465009, 3.538722242103148, 14.589550778766494, 3.336016465541637, 3.2225107652008003, 2.991934313605765, 3.4730598185838906, 3.692380181189609 ], "rps": [ 0.41643411458390456, 0.6456614720358116, 0.5250791622396506, 0.41591350998713933, 0.39383814684203217, 0.4787158130730264, 0.7051888128407502, 0.3062082168140556 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5378222677027902, 0.46540376292499014, 0.544167761935176, 0.42259006334453925, 0.4687251767879638, 0.37920455847261086, 0.47625759961208325, 0.48392303022441024 ], "bias": [ 9.677813652307442, -0.060519643986939146, -5.44837039434193, -0.8982078771296669, 4.95773422029564, 2.572141697051945, 17.815828269366506, 7.132544773526523 ], "mae": [ 9.679777327076156, 4.989411590753495, 11.867936682146716, 4.99461513465348, 5.541863009832393, 6.068305950227025, 17.815828269366506, 7.132544773526523 ], "mse": [ 248.57081411080333, 73.25465373349027, 292.3873115681438, 133.50780263104522, 60.80491581985021, 88.11552097496802, 496.6886638474433, 112.76656517435666 ], "var": [ 354.32746000372083, 232.70078950790455, 1034.1536942018479, 149.1207171038169, 229.53723834595033, 348.9895039372121, 960.3740829640187, 278.72195366778465 ], "zero": [ 0.289413303417296, 0.3067877922018758, 0.24730935579008453, 0.2882611328544443, 0.3070613734796372, 0.28931904979487577, 0.19505591687109056, 0.2754371949374526 ] }, "crps": 4.95040971528938, "crpss": -0.015459725624141107, "rps": 0.4858799060520463, "rpss": -0.028835974181405932, "mean_bias_mm": 4.46862058713619, "mean_mae_mm": 8.511285342197787, "mean_rmse_mm": 13.720861160383215, "spread_error_ratio": 1.5434598669515174, "zero_fraction": 0.27483063991834455, "correlation": 0.36013664249571875, "pit_histogram": [ 0.05048, 0.05789, 0.1136, 0.09111, 0.07577, 0.11985, 0.11069, 0.11337, 0.13841, 0.12883 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.24949948772125793 } }, "full": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 2.7507997719850223, 3.557522251786345, 10.470231990104322, 1.927877159508932, 10.156334500492148, 4.247517627987592, 2.7113290804285337, 4.842398742077082, 2.9243350723634984, 18.72769349424304, 16.89772029209887, 3.450969141745547, 7.578408702757103, 23.97160297708942, 4.605038080518514, 2.24408177490498, 12.857756888102672, 3.3073318916924648, 3.742597079715577, 4.171614659227216, 5.119131669420054, 3.9345534873520096, 7.098322243930831, 3.1209927562165753, 3.754644862619087, 3.134647448294609, 9.805695829534805, 3.5223554009948903, 3.89347464527573, 4.795599920121026, 5.857331215816105, 2.259798800067981 ], "crps_clim": [ 2.8572571807760165, 3.1865323464856155, 10.383599749568983, 2.5619649424777258, 15.714771517105724, 3.3680154534657665, 2.765672743937594, 5.300295600051972, 2.8388059419872405, 21.851414927820926, 17.1664341858879, 3.7370645400554223, 3.942032189422852, 25.551792834412236, 3.6290536020800803, 2.8900168246080717, 14.071028267301827, 3.0762760995886107, 3.6632019409978067, 3.7186259353467004, 3.564689968626687, 2.839593289203478, 7.19932849431782, 3.43605995135926, 3.8609579743608737, 2.8299285708739577, 12.23962820019987, 2.794216883727665, 3.293480646075853, 4.260034824273769, 3.0060012627324424, 3.1366202401449357 ], "rps": [ 0.4838972625049898, 0.4572206336757132, 0.4507476729631305, 0.36703536991501307, 0.4499867326797247, 0.6422037237066294, 0.4987042151939046, 0.5286433890925607, 0.5022578262294987, 0.3932889045972706, 0.5190987218841354, 0.555791241287582, 0.772763629070322, 0.45379757573832946, 0.6105371483148104, 0.3236813833215, 0.39794989579344886, 0.4745564482333212, 0.5676647871459972, 0.569678912603691, 0.6832728434132334, 0.49398590752122706, 0.446792449572318, 0.5501193484428178, 0.5371738114440984, 0.5830666777338428, 0.45315256810196974, 0.4817752382509876, 0.47146356440174236, 0.4745415421813268, 0.7387932096211787, 0.3782596393583013 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.42597328472277496, 0.3506474587875527, 0.4500587082647611, 0.32853144302379395, 0.4793056617036147, 0.4798374907327482, 0.3541533787330895, 0.4731556449679077, 0.3927115296130284, 0.5155155067499355, 0.5115992154696631, 0.4372196861501219, 0.5134082784354855, 0.5544160313927202, 0.4916821403090456, 0.46169725845021364, 0.48685690274881205, 0.4101509392762119, 0.472007224293684, 0.4017865592049955, 0.4940497459609742, 0.37193747436870483, 0.4453370890748853, 0.4489261212476537, 0.5165803609034532, 0.4475995691106898, 0.5228420289369178, 0.41806933442655636, 0.4281627076345683, 0.41613299701643813, 0.4679489278571733, 0.4937218068532966 ], "bias": [ 5.294114318586851, 3.8454809120519955, -9.940345420049102, 2.962402125567022, -1.5209282559541606, 10.254825014441499, 0.16975235061351474, -1.067689911061155, 2.7846283456277305, -19.287595983913477, -17.207165020755678, 0.6716797441583615, 15.378769420816102, -27.09954867955075, 9.764756347723356, 3.0349875551669947, -13.006202954880113, -1.2628523457399867, -0.44200462273666585, -3.1302639005038713, 10.468053578072324, 8.780895712480918, 0.33746187204474853, 4.192678046277246, 8.038180165529473, 1.479441883703924, -7.51022141962122, -1.5774623193077826, -0.26898062031055714, -2.6330389577545934, 11.36058764361664, 5.5444763116955444 ], "mae": [ 5.711513043640934, 6.127208581002184, 12.488643534920921, 3.6617285434951286, 14.825298345133277, 10.261383343199483, 3.74644203903174, 6.480961173010273, 4.62470109999269, 22.922609666286718, 18.891265641019654, 5.027224249341923, 15.384756430842653, 27.39858602314415, 9.80920590583637, 4.4013889040605925, 15.806351951284729, 4.397034627145938, 5.138470715427901, 5.352510689513939, 10.486334985968698, 8.882502997814052, 10.628530886359279, 6.0739077104502, 8.098232957685756, 4.7092928190990335, 11.51062537387961, 4.616086703185245, 5.8952727518652175, 6.441762279961058, 12.118514299682733, 5.652377016192233 ], "mse": [ 76.55852888076444, 132.96056745760978, 713.2284245094063, 39.14004545799518, 630.8667897169471, 226.47458978889523, 51.09745270370643, 123.0291793615874, 67.4907512095367, 1831.4582494542033, 620.8034113086204, 82.12662067816606, 647.2113063074017, 1700.4147268351953, 287.66752391751305, 55.19555378885038, 1062.4510222166955, 76.7621694073115, 78.70166013585239, 152.033474784971, 352.68895257712535, 197.5318022700228, 241.71952426583408, 91.41491868555237, 197.4430891050875, 53.86816482488387, 370.8297722386559, 108.63937382854311, 145.02876721344023, 160.8209310614993, 289.18545741380075, 75.18003736530186 ], "var": [ 130.0380166078209, 348.14016400525077, 253.53625186981085, 132.7387971178992, 732.7272618494186, 380.1035804025663, 179.0985913484382, 285.25814021742536, 288.48040962482554, 471.03041209195504, 255.08178772502234, 272.54608111290645, 507.2558646190291, 234.60006338305413, 299.36312522988004, 226.32629294813768, 316.74810081968155, 169.50116995566702, 183.15215869488517, 142.71188422698577, 346.5654375744606, 259.81141344779957, 481.0256506955269, 174.49994351686536, 236.79655703487168, 204.58245388762955, 515.8664605581615, 111.24320919533253, 163.08828712369825, 224.0997418142387, 591.1259231409911, 241.247945989143 ], "zero": [ 0.17262194459848917, 0.16602435371928614, 0.1742973509638871, 0.16727781447888573, 0.1223112599685144, 0.13315186940047394, 0.19061492898091384, 0.167041584203519, 0.17384818987932163, 0.1464967222758832, 0.16039636018397818, 0.17752452421054266, 0.1434648377346493, 0.15814506953187346, 0.1745839125126464, 0.18407631197781638, 0.16236276966288812, 0.19530222406969297, 0.18316943237323982, 0.17575457135283065, 0.16063324883794344, 0.15773303838806138, 0.14839001225950182, 0.16858867933272015, 0.17983938624650667, 0.18408431605722367, 0.1525825862374966, 0.1856699404460037, 0.1894826836894739, 0.1720551245377651, 0.12949500786434942, 0.1804664084336081 ] }, "crps": 6.294990920577268, "crpss": 0.016092496996109262, "rps": 0.5097469460623318, "rpss": -0.12791293657244385, "mean_bias_mm": -0.049722783248902, "mean_mae_mm": 9.299085165296074, "mean_rmse_mm": 18.48988138716939, "spread_error_ratio": 0.9248929796742846, "zero_fraction": 0.16679645201281207, "correlation": 0.03583888612825046, "pit_histogram": [ 0.07033, 0.06902, 0.09588, 0.09697, 0.09873, 0.10136, 0.09853, 0.10085, 0.12437, 0.14397 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.14110194139147064 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 2.454420464268326, 4.5165069125754425, 3.45050182811207, 2.144208278887148, 15.22630132958942, 4.7279834808127275, 3.2568973377470756, 4.149523279921478, 2.9008816203380956, 27.345735497679428, 26.44872655282009, 3.4855442785412243, 7.832444227152812, 25.136346673700857, 5.137808966576322, 1.9996453585430765, 14.277435155312231, 2.4356146632775313, 6.4315488737849025, 5.010972247498371, 4.270368415835822, 4.34716395898298, 5.306873231561426, 3.356900112552196, 3.9944820396437093, 3.8321225969575465, 11.406223995470969, 3.8021888944986677, 2.3648533406190615, 3.1457290057701464, 7.675481661485221, 2.56196142183043 ], "crps_clim": [ 2.8175577367545985, 3.9021745191382493, 3.3034198610233836, 3.0658976041547716, 27.95661134379484, 3.362418886433096, 3.1100028100913844, 4.094088898027647, 2.797475683019447, 31.07358038415444, 26.285415911798307, 3.5258493082035396, 4.105091866216406, 26.621986127319055, 3.742042717578652, 3.517340209583741, 15.411353025851831, 2.673910822235419, 5.68084916383337, 4.795224659874851, 3.5512909190087862, 2.905159579919633, 5.944050077935008, 4.117186323773333, 4.037389747963682, 3.4488650528891722, 15.716463704166275, 3.2680339255822792, 3.0328683611021146, 2.8141009404740527, 3.4247012737105678, 3.5844382254089533 ], "rps": [ 0.4160934912066825, 0.5422696445391986, 0.5119331331713036, 0.40319341437423, 0.28300953336880785, 0.5751829603580504, 0.5821708157208784, 0.6379924804101723, 0.7343360649028312, 0.5317436442772385, 0.7562021001400474, 0.7327540366324059, 0.7426219676398225, 0.6287119701147661, 0.6656653598432104, 0.242273077175802, 0.41466868093053955, 0.38490179864887064, 0.7257939034155126, 0.644105156361937, 0.4439317426140845, 0.5914599067345041, 0.5043021889867392, 0.5537418746330969, 0.41613861491339277, 0.6718767232111933, 0.5358071194082125, 0.45295382925913935, 0.4043027843843227, 0.49369321543011324, 0.6984081251534202, 0.3054151800369095 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4298711247134212, 0.33951771473196274, 0.3580324977963315, 0.3440075796304816, 0.5614000118944327, 0.42739667374627904, 0.31854005006647745, 0.4274262614020923, 0.4024604048415598, 0.5070497366915091, 0.5496038326833845, 0.44190671299078577, 0.5231727861116291, 0.5620037572257898, 0.5267904535413438, 0.5284018227909777, 0.48322502696648467, 0.40592076688279005, 0.44404886379291797, 0.4240421871939146, 0.4646575370925135, 0.37305364252256173, 0.4173925133581936, 0.4446715007416715, 0.5288605928241447, 0.4618809475548823, 0.5613869457241275, 0.4470539791818982, 0.45697580457229925, 0.3508328348614358, 0.47125617734541536, 0.4764068519243777 ], "bias": [ 4.677996986760339, 4.078491686868808, 0.5615400973194, 4.987622549653262, -12.367100741984656, 12.375677774908384, -1.5816840102417316, -0.8728278663520104, 3.4345572040806522, -29.323909768894023, -29.003400058827008, 2.3668955113887886, 17.348277094349935, -28.498569801176508, 10.488600480224168, 5.28378842058685, -15.124077204437526, 1.016056959711919, -5.278050228081044, -4.264164574839476, 10.056075641008631, 9.938761370966692, 7.40338611307248, 2.8334115874959607, 9.066644655807652, -0.7857098644638567, -7.728004462412054, -1.5408845426448763, 4.350474935639263, 1.7307855323584858, 16.46417651109924, 6.566571885358925 ], "mae": [ 4.746685974880058, 7.7428636850606, 4.162586234194043, 5.208534191984757, 19.497923455770966, 12.375677774908384, 4.032697070450409, 5.391148581910708, 4.603494521381577, 33.41319305359817, 29.045578444576964, 5.3519015613139995, 17.348277094349935, 28.67273769174865, 10.590111292786577, 5.314739002335252, 18.60935687075928, 4.066318082789041, 7.472415216578302, 5.969273456930235, 10.058232829368366, 9.938796693253943, 10.118052664739933, 6.2719932156310785, 9.072255961918442, 4.819752108093933, 12.13438852046452, 4.932917189877619, 4.96852204365499, 5.469294447056336, 16.46417651109924, 6.566571885358925 ], "mse": [ 53.60836771397606, 168.7528699367963, 79.91236555011442, 61.25890351731922, 971.5820876955518, 271.55658120663577, 76.21699575433264, 93.66831303538329, 71.69545937336449, 3215.948731554971, 1073.3087933590182, 74.11445556072961, 667.0622050523723, 1734.7217300290051, 272.5911217733487, 75.01884479659563, 1227.9027259290556, 40.18696144163896, 150.89347615137603, 220.82156767723373, 306.23946709717393, 226.60019488147864, 161.3731908432682, 90.89756538505127, 231.06644839797391, 73.27044722876029, 305.80153564256904, 136.75765893286584, 51.562824093216975, 82.02479509806417, 418.1564459018284, 102.63646481368556 ], "var": [ 97.51491345285736, 436.9236309502532, 350.2969973238609, 162.19578886018618, 1149.5595662213796, 553.0025350527085, 153.0660201999862, 321.3454798445393, 352.6800208280132, 508.84253653960513, 277.9062345407981, 308.1557845300366, 667.1659693860231, 300.2278366935626, 292.0629181123851, 217.1513460559879, 320.75766081335115, 175.51235626191342, 240.3195079072562, 196.88254365521001, 448.84600198556825, 302.5634569763012, 830.2171182596627, 183.36273875066937, 294.26525435744753, 194.82508153897732, 847.532364270226, 126.4433343804082, 193.45691292355033, 293.3594080057414, 848.7809411719447, 237.87456874869224 ], "zero": [ 0.28693883959114364, 0.2862608876019645, 0.3146984430475772, 0.2882305021108049, 0.19119079673364955, 0.22380392749822528, 0.31179763296953195, 0.291384754351608, 0.3095348654487823, 0.2527442452375567, 0.29117471999604033, 0.30170549196672586, 0.25361247758312044, 0.2690150278627078, 0.2951376562230853, 0.3151581017627287, 0.28115050555664345, 0.32202296103744854, 0.311723898678924, 0.2808050364343446, 0.29199755672770444, 0.2638786594962062, 0.23508109200222346, 0.28471792564416354, 0.29305393314244554, 0.31479928257032297, 0.25762545648776963, 0.2918021448838961, 0.30992650352776724, 0.2950035752336853, 0.19501266157350464, 0.2776141426137007 ] }, "crps": 7.013543615698337, "crpss": 0.05576010849829971, "rps": 0.5383642043124198, "rpss": -0.1914627249251455, "mean_bias_mm": -0.04183094142796673, "mean_mae_mm": 10.450952104025788, "mean_rmse_mm": 19.990004998924427, "spread_error_ratio": 0.9639997607019686, "zero_fraction": 0.2808938657998751, "correlation": 0.14137590887996762, "pit_histogram": [ 0.03852, 0.06369, 0.07405, 0.07331, 0.07864, 0.10155, 0.10914, 0.11403, 0.17039, 0.17668 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.34359243589257904 } }, "distribution_full": { "ethiopia": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9971682674121886, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.053403202798492554 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 0.8788725989834543, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.26648984140214277 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.681774333877223, "area_mean_abs_log": 3.578196645113266 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 1.1474276999426847, "area_mean_abs_log": 2.768797744242137 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.016538670139866, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.3709962915170255 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": 0.1612037663775213 } }, "ondj_domain": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9965003084242348, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.04158817560188728 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 0.8995611460610916, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.2721106446663446 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.6115072186528018, "area_mean_abs_log": 5.182565110082568 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0564854662035923, "area_mean_abs_log": 4.8133269129143965 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.015007590854822, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.4501450434832515 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": 0.28089386579987485 } } } }, "dqm": { "training": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 2.1897614512401318, 4.028137896335205, 10.72458396832715, 2.1788517799677125, 11.052645730527068, 4.346905299126227, 3.1432142522763775, 5.09298600964092, 3.5476930543986116, 17.579245092909108, 17.52872582059635, 3.9429345988528377, 8.8480198779907, 24.035377582135443, 4.343288218291142, 2.3978833903969834, 12.50168995259745, 3.755518484033841, 3.9258654894311302, 4.978310604333824, 4.928283929323818, 3.916422246920572, 7.85876997458562, 3.0855987268558205 ], "crps_clim": [ 3.069144896531585, 3.3858676721658623, 10.074246020518368, 2.773361990265274, 15.332066536235006, 3.604951743610606, 2.9367188887863067, 5.050819710999868, 3.0258348712866763, 21.012210746646392, 16.801010670653753, 3.7894449827302754, 4.194423053287697, 25.04733364035127, 3.8894382629868667, 3.276619104881488, 13.516550290161696, 3.1815721446141088, 3.8044427745910094, 3.8505600739044343, 3.8413777807512575, 3.029724174279054, 7.270640397516081, 3.55202677848655 ], "rps": [ 0.40984216972192544, 0.48010859826729246, 0.5120783098798484, 0.3951453744445697, 0.4226788156630805, 0.9377142285972166, 0.5517337533607336, 0.5323476872857086, 0.5327338273541169, 0.3223077152182269, 0.6110423204907975, 0.5798434762874788, 1.0948822664588602, 0.41764231801065005, 0.5451418890050737, 0.22422244562152094, 0.3754178778180437, 0.4864994032320914, 0.4421072182051352, 0.6132437958611628, 0.6622789801994108, 0.49008977297643436, 0.5445949916482258, 0.5415234993144948 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4625629239522452, 0.36451731789334524, 0.44125991446339186, 0.36766510384083156, 0.4796288408201259, 0.5018388021804165, 0.38147740265907437, 0.45785739893807914, 0.37358783510004456, 0.5052606258044735, 0.5036552005735562, 0.4358799343390295, 0.5001476339830571, 0.5372757885017574, 0.4967176371371437, 0.4833984207814198, 0.48412488996957304, 0.42298688095193837, 0.47887418976886764, 0.4007717998366474, 0.49873748259985246, 0.40202165211061897, 0.4457035075298269, 0.452337281302436 ], "bias": [ 5.126620469772269, 4.146695245796377, -9.554469309325482, 1.9906162871839, 3.6055657515583626, 11.439107802273023, -0.6398924815422784, 0.20480514283357873, 3.6430289083977767, -17.189539265805205, -16.975238309779787, 1.1961086703065889, 18.9725263342285, -26.696127089010258, 10.472572859004792, 2.4729069989914203, -11.224022009328365, -1.953369971966166, -1.0215999533864042, -3.4735581365439425, 11.248620306942733, 10.637031308917761, 2.924297273665784, 4.071938455579194 ], "mae": [ 5.660713835906699, 7.087283858945595, 12.574234648603843, 3.646130446522073, 17.264660520956273, 11.452873051431576, 3.9007078060691716, 5.9547693955358865, 5.701358392177876, 21.13889802174872, 19.10849203546245, 5.449437334686094, 18.972563011707134, 27.16081024342962, 10.54853667715746, 4.445977618423454, 15.677014056024891, 4.5434908429106695, 4.760519459434969, 6.077070588060207, 11.274058406255085, 10.657145537090882, 12.63080816386627, 6.258774820772555 ], "mse": [ 71.47149722619804, 192.02313769360092, 719.6634003857146, 39.48557765088125, 700.5102234101789, 257.37741736233164, 53.9235650460794, 101.26010682704595, 96.62724290934975, 1610.389892945424, 622.2276543066934, 99.55457620515837, 849.541258634833, 1686.7866684723008, 313.60715167713454, 64.25953860265055, 992.0259582213921, 81.8608045775934, 78.00004060545189, 167.1186266953745, 382.50150301795156, 247.88649700265393, 330.1764904696727, 85.12740024388778 ], "var": [ 188.09207439780167, 547.9800344538614, 356.42395706303455, 173.2255183770563, 1335.0274803238324, 482.1670073905311, 177.51727617026785, 419.29965051135304, 423.04804367233396, 746.5802401185581, 349.8498529184572, 434.26449610607835, 863.0501460216401, 367.50983026499773, 413.1126922999002, 253.45791411289008, 515.4861452788222, 182.1679005545348, 241.90533641343364, 223.35271210282886, 478.8575440147601, 443.8826187546593, 828.725591953714, 217.74729412439726 ], "zero": [ 0.004417199750131358, 0.0033165575690106194, 0.0021880705972259296, 0.002725124399699358, 0.002353506743609803, 0.0020304171198374707, 0.0053142193519014735, 0.002214733644500857, 0.003066490135250401, 0.003310019066863425, 0.0032077815751457095, 0.0024336711322063605, 0.0013080909336370462, 0.003451263694417377, 0.004158791963965556, 0.004276177215474169, 0.0034747705789095196, 0.003017666737009315, 0.003473837846927806, 0.002777494927441812, 0.002673344932731467, 0.0023765928314239096, 0.002461517051111424, 0.002890534884711766 ] }, "crps": 7.080446392962252, "crpss": -0.0036638403295181643, "rps": 0.5302175306217541, "rpss": -0.1697815125807971, "mean_bias_mm": 0.1426927203651743, "mean_mae_mm": 10.497763698882478, "mean_rmse_mm": 20.251961047214614, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0407862103310108, "zero_fraction": 0.0030382447784643306, "correlation": 0.023419995686189073, "pit_histogram": [ 0.18735, 0.04346, 0.04502, 0.05239, 0.06733, 0.08805, 0.11314, 0.15319, 0.14057, 0.10951 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.4075162409224625 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 1.9837962160513625, 5.146188998875005, 3.900733828499836, 2.0513351100200765, 14.88691223001788, 5.35672397022489, 3.71394596141954, 4.599786621452484, 3.482012677363096, 25.452008500378735, 27.00263282865287, 4.027333948023114, 9.457233904482575, 24.978269066157385, 5.348453837939709, 1.8807660848749743, 13.76241492762468, 2.58115842919998, 7.095629478393792, 5.594492456785596, 4.098856765254106, 4.315012900575911, 6.208585336427266, 3.5912514790921284 ], "crps_clim": [ 3.134642569756797, 4.0368873592733205, 3.423335292543674, 3.3738802296500032, 27.106814106125587, 3.7253738930894196, 3.249450552047323, 4.035569151257637, 2.965809999169824, 30.070724508266622, 25.830159399346183, 3.580613889817456, 4.549159240055732, 25.77593644509466, 4.188541565312743, 3.9517287715065783, 14.718801138616833, 2.963090816144978, 5.6582471562161265, 4.848776670389135, 3.9672709222205658, 3.261152428150299, 5.930891894544658, 4.158239602390194 ], "rps": [ 0.36578628624910314, 0.5013397500806398, 0.4904217482968686, 0.3832075674127598, 0.027145135194040958, 1.161167838018699, 0.575514278085811, 0.6157234787535592, 0.7192048551788096, 0.3841370740715066, 0.6834080245634955, 0.6518586400241713, 1.1729077033610127, 0.3863705663338235, 0.6505645304003169, 0.13837072579005438, 0.3574773719042628, 0.23971618910350084, 0.7493993522136099, 0.5458313013310361, 0.4524333829512219, 0.6127721734162561, 0.607672058887867, 0.6604712279129714 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4612583063145251, 0.36325581037926996, 0.3548837655357383, 0.3845191261452081, 0.5442138131835412, 0.47392048479376536, 0.3369486554725916, 0.41421918051654527, 0.37845219279141734, 0.4951720255695432, 0.5339101560355515, 0.4478677807232184, 0.5122698437472656, 0.5463196106078548, 0.5151171353423272, 0.5367285502205256, 0.4864254375606979, 0.45042529314649876, 0.45228609712142287, 0.40382417088714717, 0.4727414090541605, 0.43354624566717376, 0.435070354227705, 0.43462262504974214 ], "bias": [ 4.623996851545466, 6.259229499772383, 1.5651430759457703, 4.957507180807775, -5.936449361753108, 14.346779238716293, -1.773993034835743, 0.16279938460107898, 4.205651191459039, -26.57705456164122, -28.8374610723571, 3.348597260686582, 21.424092950673586, -27.632352254999297, 12.335821433380227, 5.483600173408175, -13.711983088531454, 0.23356824246493146, -5.131590145950638, -3.703222681206689, 11.123312823760632, 11.694013358317502, 11.802372472679375, 2.707558723100485 ], "mae": [ 4.755624510114366, 9.775696943090775, 4.620050608480471, 5.416615525400709, 19.90204409785475, 14.346779238716293, 4.354410671937107, 5.449820840876459, 5.452406629924308, 31.667858105627943, 28.89894695200846, 5.8075770129704365, 21.424092950673586, 27.904672536107235, 12.510753120599897, 5.543671304428736, 18.490438458646224, 4.033606225162466, 7.500865326563109, 6.2710740512621905, 11.136765406701379, 11.694013358317502, 12.896845831236147, 6.519451941869138 ], "mse": [ 50.00146166822632, 293.06087916777096, 88.03922700875411, 63.30286983059194, 943.7872290756095, 335.1875413949275, 83.79608140634544, 92.3571997210092, 104.54059347599626, 2882.2391453518385, 1066.4487786537059, 92.30125722562447, 957.9557320535527, 1674.7229936330884, 366.36118537929434, 79.50262876786456, 1148.3848660350113, 43.577943464513346, 151.14101537224042, 219.52268748700948, 353.12665417073976, 292.74408015782416, 279.29101649055735, 89.4552240444771 ], "var": [ 155.38432512269347, 813.7126053783477, 499.00889989671583, 229.15987599700563, 2067.5261517468202, 645.9810493073497, 182.60257757537318, 428.8313836841313, 510.0295046282891, 809.8863549227526, 395.10980032237256, 511.2799898331136, 1063.7232447896456, 497.88781472054376, 499.79027611559655, 292.45107016254735, 535.329774137073, 163.18751044637662, 342.5207649782866, 313.4787787652655, 601.3178562081107, 479.4731512060786, 1385.3356998981576, 228.65370434207716 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0022292135740660116, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 7.938147314907791, "crpss": 0.04024864922743243, "rps": 0.5472042191473082, "rpss": -0.20840114019476363, "mean_bias_mm": 0.12374740250183525, "mean_mae_mm": 11.932253402023738, "mean_rmse_mm": 22.12732877672293, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0778495791248957, "zero_fraction": 9.288389891941715e-05, "correlation": 0.09433199255391327, "pit_histogram": [ 0.17687, 0.04392, 0.04281, 0.04536, 0.06011, 0.08164, 0.11934, 0.16187, 0.16488, 0.1032 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.4523356233649907 } }, "operational": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 2.9083011296552663, 3.0981771566636165, 10.261656321842674, 3.962631160973956, 4.0394503301369005, 5.156527327884979, 6.800068180169399, 1.9548437395944815 ], "crps_clim": [ 3.840649245962226, 2.9635126140043284, 11.660524877797739, 2.9183695971477044, 3.477601142846446, 4.259321637104846, 3.1351156438044105, 3.1728418151724775 ], "rps": [ 0.34731042099612713, 0.4754078959778041, 0.34582425602804967, 0.47552165608848834, 0.4259662916593787, 0.5438674885280257, 1.0182671621666068, 0.35523574816393044 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.524230481898705, 0.4593885401867237, 0.5017173979879027, 0.4051068206667376, 0.4317667103339062, 0.4153152702181896, 0.47288784486408364, 0.4886335324867942 ], "bias": [ 7.706205625331606, 1.2870359325011589, -5.440296804164604, -2.177848442580369, -0.5939496534715455, -2.7715829728596573, 13.65240733113906, 5.452070734661093 ], "mae": [ 7.776631576181138, 4.848791851895836, 12.154433088615075, 4.867180225924374, 6.068738004928816, 6.65338535651525, 14.734877141571, 5.726024241837619 ], "mse": [ 182.46322829850544, 59.22092771820214, 406.5159271722231, 123.02771215657917, 159.6735644139488, 172.0952104320218, 445.07376207033155, 71.52670229792915 ], "var": [ 302.7500424857955, 253.14421137347296, 811.1903361581881, 132.109083146847, 190.56362588710255, 262.6532547258215, 935.2407490790525, 268.26038176275694 ], "zero": [ 0.004397832192236566, 0.004199402193279331, 0.0029484751758644696, 0.00410452813908388, 0.00342085279332836, 0.0032223083183391395, 0.0029698289905470427, 0.00494382680395647 ] }, "crps": 4.772706918365159, "crpss": -0.07772732592940312, "rps": 0.49842511495105135, "rpss": -0.0779536870584836, "mean_bias_mm": 2.1392552188195926, "mean_mae_mm": 7.853757685933639, "mean_rmse_mm": 14.228479515393332, "spread_error_ratio": 1.3959148719895955, "zero_fraction": 0.0037758818258294075, "correlation": 0.23003296799472503, "pit_histogram": [ 0.13589, 0.02646, 0.03985, 0.06843, 0.08028, 0.10744, 0.1513, 0.16972, 0.13096, 0.08967 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.3906292933505491 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 3.1985791638771244, 3.84716747961652, 11.760145259354479, 4.120140781768099, 2.037929737298398, 3.176595354075501, 9.268167869117065, 2.2052600104393503 ], "crps_clim": [ 4.156168553465009, 3.538722242103148, 14.589550778766494, 3.336016465541637, 3.2225107652008003, 2.991934313605765, 3.4730598185838906, 3.692380181189609 ], "rps": [ 0.27247664257336046, 0.5684481516518582, 0.16761155956087256, 0.42018054162405527, 0.26758596728834616, 0.4440705037379216, 1.1544665377797296, 0.43465151547725606 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5378222677027902, 0.46540376292499014, 0.544167761935176, 0.42259006334453925, 0.4687251767879638, 0.37920455847261086, 0.47625759961208325, 0.48392303022441024 ], "bias": [ 9.254267919681286, -0.866983424535242, -3.9240221913739934, -1.462833471766078, 4.1473380385883205, 1.8613688644118078, 19.828282042665855, 6.997089958303973 ], "mae": [ 9.254267919681286, 4.701737710376159, 12.756377899917567, 5.348715765735084, 4.746879629990299, 5.483255814141738, 19.828282042665855, 6.997089958303973 ], "mse": [ 232.19709469346083, 73.3403236833015, 336.50132442401514, 147.96033787239705, 46.927849726324204, 83.19500017608708, 665.6047465356473, 98.21628643961141 ], "var": [ 409.5242065777467, 243.73758477504015, 1326.055547726583, 169.23919128680203, 216.87702137252086, 335.7933368257488, 1349.6572059086834, 293.27571880637163 ], "zero": [ 0.0004773727816653232, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00030688362016734097, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 4.951748206943316, "crpss": -0.015734285599138254, "rps": 0.46618642746167505, "rpss": 0.012864369829887479, "mean_bias_mm": 4.479313466996991, "mean_mae_mm": 8.639575842601495, "mean_rmse_mm": 14.50837242573596, "spread_error_ratio": 1.6061614871734429, "zero_fraction": 9.803205022908302e-05, "correlation": 0.3725142409860286, "pit_histogram": [ 0.15425, 0.02036, 0.04383, 0.08804, 0.07924, 0.10783, 0.16193, 0.17222, 0.1294, 0.04291 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.4512568149930752 } }, "full": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 2.107540497490017, 3.820600332759314, 10.769192997596232, 2.1405635331045856, 10.683338997599803, 4.17067153207706, 3.133967346542888, 5.177588757339176, 3.2877080532634544, 18.257930326668387, 17.884961472468557, 3.6622349506121967, 8.609145796580172, 24.13573453830325, 4.227320411372273, 2.1438186733831492, 12.884171497742797, 3.7244515928398165, 3.861239024805139, 4.798410083714133, 4.941559952887422, 3.667544679211585, 7.129438196494907, 3.10544348766219, 2.9783883383115435, 2.9624017781771745, 10.103559031051976, 3.8983797019604505, 3.810991131868978, 5.091606336998207, 6.534425929714847, 1.849093570123149 ], "crps_clim": [ 2.8572571807760165, 3.1865323464856155, 10.383599749568983, 2.5619649424777258, 15.714771517105724, 3.3680154534657665, 2.765672743937594, 5.300295600051972, 2.8388059419872405, 21.851414927820926, 17.1664341858879, 3.7370645400554223, 3.942032189422852, 25.551792834412236, 3.6290536020800803, 2.8900168246080717, 14.071028267301827, 3.0762760995886107, 3.6632019409978067, 3.7186259353467004, 3.564689968626687, 2.839593289203478, 7.19932849431782, 3.43605995135926, 3.8609579743608737, 2.8299285708739577, 12.23962820019987, 2.794216883727665, 3.293480646075853, 4.260034824273769, 3.0060012627324424, 3.1366202401449357 ], "rps": [ 0.4116666982935302, 0.5130041909482213, 0.5136795403385789, 0.4114237743620822, 0.3938978332910416, 0.9175017799289591, 0.5767794128262542, 0.5348936801939197, 0.5506048889434355, 0.28713723375584427, 0.6082417082608675, 0.5793403365859432, 1.0839307581921052, 0.39622936497898426, 0.5687586079001651, 0.2475940334570381, 0.3700627402009658, 0.5500880734502773, 0.4651636118951501, 0.6415057996224087, 0.6753465139976046, 0.4443061976026978, 0.4924010116681612, 0.5318438081063326, 0.359893561547266, 0.47641229629403986, 0.31809824594967046, 0.521817077556776, 0.4315061240843634, 0.5477776746885916, 1.0373424968918896, 0.352158141670453 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.42597328472277496, 0.3506474587875527, 0.4500587082647611, 0.32853144302379395, 0.4793056617036147, 0.4798374907327482, 0.3541533787330895, 0.4731556449679077, 0.3927115296130284, 0.5155155067499355, 0.5115992154696631, 0.4372196861501219, 0.5134082784354855, 0.5544160313927202, 0.4916821403090456, 0.46169725845021364, 0.48685690274881205, 0.4101509392762119, 0.472007224293684, 0.4017865592049955, 0.4940497459609742, 0.37193747436870483, 0.4453370890748853, 0.4489261212476537, 0.5165803609034532, 0.4475995691106898, 0.5228420289369178, 0.41806933442655636, 0.4281627076345683, 0.41613299701643813, 0.4679489278571733, 0.4937218068532966 ], "bias": [ 4.721317803131555, 3.511648114529797, -9.990257936726518, 1.6632906786450607, 1.8397158111574958, 10.63065021623347, -0.7623878473295268, -0.49720320516293154, 3.0899944275219102, -17.744185352413066, -17.089812570376363, 0.4314135061755847, 17.720031766366542, -26.905406419968955, 9.745618931515192, 2.2726769046976605, -11.893804577562582, -2.213659443909803, -1.3188120205839933, -4.0077738717722315, 10.841669631267955, 9.57450038554426, 1.4201286608373045, 3.615603404958087, 7.433876079369603, 0.9159207694118762, -6.7956940939069925, -2.6185308925532467, -0.9927705533580482, -3.2321967191491443, 13.081303962897637, 5.107901113053444 ], "mae": [ 5.244036740826236, 6.529976805238335, 12.47194299702261, 3.524449740926055, 16.10776399119959, 10.647545265627503, 3.8822301893168354, 6.284265145895106, 5.054997377683979, 21.91959162983007, 19.654558487765776, 4.996344641311055, 17.720044658976835, 27.203324082692745, 9.817884970434015, 3.88577680731297, 15.876676015715427, 4.54763210849021, 4.677455314783323, 5.896802010976584, 10.863805233690783, 9.587770242514923, 11.131659955552495, 6.021926777867656, 7.484884571346107, 4.501549439917847, 11.793874915999984, 4.7376691426739885, 5.5654758200813275, 6.414343563728971, 13.809872584710055, 5.285048451222821 ], "mse": [ 66.61939530140344, 157.59809394612006, 714.7085080277444, 35.97845713987522, 640.1358233939735, 232.46060058123595, 56.60605783727103, 114.63014640006449, 77.82189298957857, 1706.9895193026875, 650.0543315873541, 86.09558975614458, 770.7627241038311, 1675.2728332798154, 290.90203420482305, 49.00032664163748, 1050.97392598751, 82.2084714530889, 78.64964312402174, 164.08992358908714, 372.7563281313566, 211.15536783611236, 257.6530311203938, 86.65205173393812, 181.39261935595175, 54.6914809608723, 378.20071844182877, 122.27060908291601, 146.08654784116965, 165.17813625790632, 390.4914258605089, 62.783533797848904 ], "var": [ 164.56649124251922, 429.82528706592433, 303.2520726276351, 148.57076967552038, 975.4243292268715, 419.51728020463077, 168.5726198350859, 346.33390295766117, 356.98881999357144, 636.9631034555028, 316.1610802833825, 335.02787265945005, 705.0312673369634, 310.35132729157397, 343.6599708063053, 231.43564856276257, 422.39762893060805, 165.05239904696458, 207.7292149051153, 177.70699829448867, 425.6054462836822, 345.54818736541785, 593.8672505961483, 190.42013228185743, 263.55797879440735, 225.54592170621913, 641.1728463909949, 113.78815586401667, 169.08893956811002, 234.75114284503303, 793.5164689236515, 238.15429073480465 ], "zero": [ 0.003741977115049784, 0.0027801646526100267, 0.0019217409593615203, 0.00218830166425546, 0.0020586639268167744, 0.0018694775880678577, 0.003201446286180603, 0.002000974871457824, 0.002691748173569015, 0.002589449830685795, 0.002939597751164603, 0.002139670137019362, 0.0009862460467764881, 0.0030214021261044826, 0.0038107095021541596, 0.004034961284881922, 0.0036603076992866488, 0.002855585963246803, 0.0031238496480068202, 0.0025891581902981013, 0.002353826186725446, 0.001817298817205411, 0.002032471528908111, 0.0022206070289817435, 0.0034054715713067916, 0.0031952125006859382, 0.002633017280459421, 0.0033509679423290284, 0.003037053371817907, 0.0024601351887969646, 0.0026416403056474754, 0.003809752004053899 ] }, "crps": 6.42354445471015, "crpss": -0.00400042900916131, "rps": 0.5253252255463632, "rpss": -0.1623828693406757, "mean_bias_mm": 0.04858645820440732, "mean_mae_mm": 9.473161865041632, "mean_rmse_mm": 18.650460910078795, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0119987113337523, "zero_fraction": 0.0027238402232472557, "correlation": 0.05832186862755309, "pit_histogram": [ 0.18019, 0.04015, 0.04316, 0.05382, 0.06641, 0.08545, 0.11576, 0.15562, 0.14758, 0.11185 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.422025613367508 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 1.782842721284673, 4.749100253371786, 3.673737409725882, 1.9242608318277745, 14.79589761510819, 4.7283549710286605, 3.809608672878202, 4.559906167194953, 3.3236114006006177, 26.31433225975153, 27.405383747614806, 3.784351665186434, 8.545494887332465, 25.55940066728658, 4.730225034364105, 1.7402539578501566, 14.478124147299166, 2.537808460743405, 7.150070374021274, 5.6783258727977755, 3.7789955962498114, 3.7437829067875117, 5.384732342130908, 3.677085990651923, 3.1138497665540323, 3.8711069956499338, 11.839037608637552, 4.193675177685337, 1.8646946208850512, 3.0587903169217574, 8.86161865783288, 2.086177968525753 ], "crps_clim": [ 2.8175577367545985, 3.9021745191382493, 3.3034198610233836, 3.0658976041547716, 27.95661134379484, 3.362418886433096, 3.1100028100913844, 4.094088898027647, 2.797475683019447, 31.07358038415444, 26.285415911798307, 3.5258493082035396, 4.105091866216406, 26.621986127319055, 3.742042717578652, 3.517340209583741, 15.411353025851831, 2.673910822235419, 5.68084916383337, 4.795224659874851, 3.5512909190087862, 2.905159579919633, 5.944050077935008, 4.117186323773333, 4.037389747963682, 3.4488650528891722, 15.716463704166275, 3.2680339255822792, 3.0328683611021146, 2.8141009404740527, 3.4247012737105678, 3.5844382254089533 ], "rps": [ 0.37216210028229335, 0.5014695203041619, 0.525541386933504, 0.37039680085457843, 0.020405849928339503, 1.0717682371176416, 0.6021280845720758, 0.6536481784752431, 0.7682924050827025, 0.33091808198023287, 0.6889009677462934, 0.6598594084554571, 1.1272608450012667, 0.3880936587797666, 0.6714742693896435, 0.1803843871736885, 0.3740562115806685, 0.35163243377151304, 0.7993622790012777, 0.604626180646572, 0.4271832106562684, 0.5134720790053869, 0.5544659792189461, 0.6258912029332886, 0.27935757497783054, 0.6023705716225992, 0.11893075493260026, 0.46909385504890166, 0.27904024357008084, 0.4358699238668332, 1.1486717178981636, 0.40309906605726165 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4298711247134212, 0.33951771473196274, 0.3580324977963315, 0.3440075796304816, 0.5614000118944327, 0.42739667374627904, 0.31854005006647745, 0.4274262614020923, 0.4024604048415598, 0.5070497366915091, 0.5496038326833845, 0.44190671299078577, 0.5231727861116291, 0.5620037572257898, 0.5267904535413438, 0.5284018227909777, 0.48322502696648467, 0.40592076688279005, 0.44404886379291797, 0.4240421871939146, 0.4646575370925135, 0.37305364252256173, 0.4173925133581936, 0.4446715007416715, 0.5288605928241447, 0.4618809475548823, 0.5613869457241275, 0.4470539791818982, 0.45697580457229925, 0.3508328348614358, 0.47125617734541536, 0.4764068519243777 ], "bias": [ 3.791504024270174, 4.622034038021481, 0.32672142703864193, 4.047139507649168, -9.053968163490246, 12.750453239923713, -2.3159645496775916, -1.0119864234326255, 3.2412056156815114, -27.849334612924807, -29.49539199462143, 2.0205711265324497, 19.204086462028698, -28.348133816954107, 10.717707730052332, 4.826977646859461, -14.991137027729138, -0.2946044273800274, -5.830415676050845, -4.592470835529309, 10.177960480366572, 10.050603662168143, 9.235790319511084, 1.7509215921591939, 8.60446862762238, -1.6615720838581807, -6.375553534927344, -2.227080378433434, 3.4586344973849155, 1.0057489699670668, 18.503040554004617, 6.272332138237825 ], "mae": [ 4.071378279585803, 8.522369506357384, 4.128276994164404, 4.791930119228755, 19.051618490109256, 12.753204812223776, 4.461226428210743, 5.435378764114252, 4.873359341297394, 32.329943175182734, 29.53914001102063, 5.215453025803538, 19.204086462028698, 28.51739229022505, 10.873192380711705, 4.881244886371209, 18.845783779088258, 3.8781371503113924, 7.818208559325566, 6.429262559327763, 10.207996284512024, 10.050603662168143, 10.924943417848507, 6.351627489052462, 8.60446862762238, 4.6085495932116745, 12.702623172272023, 5.3629201646939295, 4.1030401666666245, 4.981248136003934, 18.503040554004617, 6.272332138237825 ], "mse": [ 38.814964354024916, 222.97093094119083, 81.64933433422277, 51.26516207886547, 904.9469061462722, 274.97399416872696, 89.93701368760337, 95.03204924782375, 80.17388236511808, 3017.4567608537313, 1106.9634893552377, 77.38261636416621, 790.0286216860924, 1709.2588050266097, 285.570254416229, 64.11707993558747, 1237.6907372556673, 44.74746812139715, 162.04027196559403, 233.24779559309, 309.4072537018901, 229.33578775357537, 194.2442388273134, 85.60278701426299, 215.65847358551764, 75.77548904991755, 329.39147347802964, 154.39387757569042, 37.23551611414749, 80.63880062079633, 579.4614756670336, 84.53361095923209 ], "var": [ 124.95215745265602, 600.2882565083648, 406.1740265009912, 186.09600741629407, 1490.6175067469592, 561.1728877140913, 159.84415447536807, 344.0698586977648, 420.29846505327083, 670.8169822955948, 341.84592370577036, 385.6225809439392, 876.6358786372808, 421.39647021494295, 381.85566748542266, 251.2765258844853, 420.3580597934431, 146.93218522042187, 281.5449450032856, 251.49488442306307, 532.2357874597891, 369.7521311847893, 1012.3395525644598, 186.90840956829985, 349.05082969861024, 206.34872718267206, 1042.7569711092965, 140.92691577341594, 183.3647404253261, 288.49456462497534, 1137.634142551938, 249.88163902557218 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00017048916149798226, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 7.085769970805654, "crpss": 0.04603620722285229, "rps": 0.5287446083395339, "rpss": -0.1701734379726969, "mean_bias_mm": 0.017509004202198142, "mean_mae_mm": 10.571686888155702, "mean_rmse_mm": 20.112144125382194, "spread_error_ratio": 1.055587544070929, "zero_fraction": 5.327786296811946e-06, "correlation": 0.1290414035856727, "pit_histogram": [ 0.16127, 0.03539, 0.04111, 0.05163, 0.06004, 0.08248, 0.12312, 0.17522, 0.16728, 0.10247 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.4587080722681405 } }, "distribution_full": { "ethiopia": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0083176162800807, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.024806299803764798 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 1.088916844249863, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.12160718491150288 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.7076294146217574, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.39885557783291803 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0299783164507936, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.0673216641932629 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0982059565196065, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.1772096719784197 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": -0.0028688454120433518 } }, "ondj_domain": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 1.002103730857913, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.028710580240411218 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0862342795024402, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.10101194017391348 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.6496168415049522, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.4694440909050787 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0047862705298, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.06189466660868771 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0971509500457524, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.21174951809636325 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": 5.327786296811946e-06 } } } }, "qdm": { "training": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 2.314291024818703, 3.774828067417922, 10.524685344073895, 1.895336032154693, 11.72839267781923, 4.103840229823559, 2.9497157231396596, 5.22778772352556, 3.509446881341257, 17.216507093544365, 17.141037809537874, 3.7336398421671806, 8.223357204018898, 23.30280980597491, 4.3756813110533255, 2.2173844894099473, 12.42773636986475, 3.6073933802889893, 3.806699747224623, 4.816221506605534, 5.019560921350055, 4.134204845473529, 7.620433874354296, 2.8785286977738083 ], "crps_clim": [ 3.069144896531585, 3.3858676721658623, 10.074246020518368, 2.773361990265274, 15.332066536235006, 3.604951743610606, 2.9367188887863067, 5.050819710999868, 3.0258348712866763, 21.012210746646392, 16.801010670653753, 3.7894449827302754, 4.194423053287697, 25.04733364035127, 3.8894382629868667, 3.276619104881488, 13.516550290161696, 3.1815721446141088, 3.8044427745910094, 3.8505600739044343, 3.8413777807512575, 3.029724174279054, 7.270640397516081, 3.55202677848655 ], "rps": [ 0.4601369340083886, 0.42440893996899465, 0.4742899568229268, 0.3790229446334519, 0.4360214116039812, 0.5944326657477408, 0.5034466402142228, 0.5831124311984367, 0.48671510194873646, 0.3385918866026184, 0.5120673376715557, 0.5176960476662108, 0.7489948370253451, 0.37056050810973057, 0.5182882793024508, 0.2361100752991641, 0.4267038171506447, 0.4837917361474304, 0.4309334920619863, 0.5876320198901821, 0.5786970939154923, 0.48604180964513116, 0.44923258779697334, 0.43577348487090867 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4625629239522452, 0.36451731789334524, 0.44125991446339186, 0.36766510384083156, 0.4796288408201259, 0.5018388021804165, 0.38147740265907437, 0.45785739893807914, 0.37358783510004456, 0.5052606258044735, 0.5036552005735562, 0.4358799343390295, 0.5001476339830571, 0.5372757885017574, 0.4967176371371437, 0.4833984207814198, 0.48412488996957304, 0.42298688095193837, 0.47887418976886764, 0.4007717998366474, 0.49873748259985246, 0.40202165211061897, 0.4457035075298269, 0.452337281302436 ], "bias": [ 5.687003839912629, 4.387694918815527, -9.268486429375317, 2.3718871336866054, 3.880509201972709, 11.802525405589126, -0.27950842973888146, -0.18283342327734667, 3.926927959295436, -17.128146910099275, -16.571283967063458, 1.5482878445847172, 18.787586440283018, -25.884691234004936, 10.722298118095038, 2.871202424562119, -11.346006710733109, -1.435954911057183, -0.7474128241022691, -3.101962198312532, 12.059640064358074, 10.723754272027538, 3.3573389407647736, 4.61522529984609 ], "mae": [ 6.174721986106546, 6.921981868837666, 12.42594799210279, 3.629163028959282, 17.468765330846438, 11.821453154296739, 3.899247910705429, 6.069546172443684, 5.86604877559797, 20.814583093397502, 18.628681671278056, 5.595726021933464, 18.787586440283018, 26.538626499381404, 10.752417251128252, 4.5545716858213465, 15.42183442973272, 4.656863405783107, 4.924993692991099, 5.9851218035343585, 12.083864551550512, 10.756658598714981, 12.540969546379632, 6.468066952976742 ], "mse": [ 79.57567070308554, 181.6023505980821, 709.9555257685753, 39.169703275126565, 711.8098302127346, 282.8894186095023, 53.14550312582118, 105.46124072980513, 91.34916401200802, 1580.5973001858438, 598.7948202426306, 94.93255946467688, 837.7165279711065, 1616.1597261023808, 321.66688444726583, 62.23910391885213, 973.4842562511664, 83.2995000714444, 77.89678157197135, 167.1630494163255, 409.81949137288973, 249.49296207320046, 324.1631412543471, 91.88710964559586 ], "var": [ 198.12938242035668, 494.1487293334811, 389.0658548091602, 171.8448629694724, 1366.584911094451, 652.4451412866628, 235.29802588099923, 435.3043267821957, 436.75937813642287, 770.7181414211199, 371.518022128002, 395.21053990039337, 944.551538201243, 376.7209442607736, 436.03379042699794, 323.4300736421112, 531.5391698236053, 259.446882642165, 259.04316845744216, 216.15838987782917, 625.2998757858269, 438.61668027533494, 808.4099369431906, 263.317783150139 ], "zero": [ 0.0031513886935664497, 0.0034183855914544127, 0.0031514836154531898, 0.0030715673822254985, 0.003258744996004017, 0.003151706109450588, 0.002966124825146646, 0.0031790576307244435, 0.0035267690984273027, 0.003046287186511706, 0.0031267411882644532, 0.0032587891599308236, 0.0029653787184603215, 0.003181121568718036, 0.0028057391366256733, 0.0032574460596848007, 0.0031798494215110173, 0.002966969687599935, 0.003311825426522631, 0.003284895323109857, 0.0030734221890248584, 0.0033380056977129046, 0.003153030707141274, 0.003153268262246504 ] }, "crps": 6.93956335844819, "crpss": 0.016306540012349324, "rps": 0.47761258497094605, "rpss": -0.053722934094203145, "mean_bias_mm": 0.4498164510845453, "mean_mae_mm": 10.532810077699281, "mean_rmse_mm": 20.14972251775902, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0816083487712669, "zero_fraction": 0.0031657499031465565, "correlation": 0.015684322502728738, "pit_histogram": [ 0.08197, 0.08108, 0.09486, 0.09555, 0.09264, 0.09281, 0.10851, 0.13202, 0.12124, 0.09931 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.12354691445507951 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 2.096356353527989, 5.047252203033535, 3.732166841317442, 1.8664602513108808, 15.256753615446371, 5.106327416268848, 3.4738421875841583, 4.5194097586775035, 3.3977329430890864, 24.610579210863616, 26.510943801685663, 3.8357077709842797, 8.921851596399248, 23.899523024625303, 5.603334473557495, 1.730841128479163, 13.484990617881845, 2.385812623048366, 7.0033666003165775, 5.500928116517154, 4.129094807350777, 4.833064978257651, 5.899908245369382, 3.2525831156008493 ], "crps_clim": [ 3.134642569756797, 4.0368873592733205, 3.423335292543674, 3.3738802296500032, 27.106814106125587, 3.7253738930894196, 3.249450552047323, 4.035569151257637, 2.965809999169824, 30.070724508266622, 25.830159399346183, 3.580613889817456, 4.549159240055732, 25.77593644509466, 4.188541565312743, 3.9517287715065783, 14.718801138616833, 2.963090816144978, 5.6582471562161265, 4.848776670389135, 3.9672709222205658, 3.261152428150299, 5.930891894544658, 4.158239602390194 ], "rps": [ 0.4671070669910258, 0.4440263512663153, 0.43507534903160644, 0.3561285304804685, 0.24828315944231832, 0.6444101709354424, 0.48603514621229266, 0.5478391567578523, 0.6469122802415754, 0.3344507944363102, 0.6171727463425715, 0.5671845150966635, 0.7711350976896556, 0.3727932914854017, 0.6577315940570732, 0.17193016896116023, 0.3733575932599002, 0.2423982615587438, 0.6851855556647345, 0.5201539704013146, 0.4218557728167984, 0.5849563175704727, 0.43553700190089, 0.4569815763447585 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4612583063145251, 0.36325581037926996, 0.3548837655357383, 0.3845191261452081, 0.5442138131835412, 0.47392048479376536, 0.3369486554725916, 0.41421918051654527, 0.37845219279141734, 0.4951720255695432, 0.5339101560355515, 0.4478677807232184, 0.5122698437472656, 0.5463196106078548, 0.5151171353423272, 0.5367285502205256, 0.4864254375606979, 0.45042529314649876, 0.45228609712142287, 0.40382417088714717, 0.4727414090541605, 0.43354624566717376, 0.435070354227705, 0.43462262504974214 ], "bias": [ 5.15422813035861, 6.203295608360239, 1.8326647137400636, 5.232091557654301, -6.328240556716875, 14.979086525181359, -1.536390151977188, 0.033683123342144364, 4.459121949398682, -26.440821549604966, -28.22619698225997, 3.7471855766198194, 21.161892850104536, -26.40092585603404, 12.722561792263495, 5.688855545927077, -13.131941098341517, 1.266032502273992, -4.9633360187651325, -3.635232572145763, 11.848487120311972, 12.094979340650088, 11.744580938810962, 3.380382745863245 ], "mae": [ 5.229741135805551, 9.535908575813044, 4.6732885245810705, 5.527967734826156, 19.674427791546425, 14.979086525181359, 4.285820430032623, 5.559816978232302, 5.54046418627636, 30.91741463118758, 28.294426483447307, 6.028344990108732, 21.161892850104536, 26.89534881937355, 12.796284579258455, 5.691477465433542, 18.22036204031279, 4.5302014354861555, 7.494989132808467, 6.1712875426745395, 11.848487120311972, 12.094979340650088, 12.742171577781967, 6.599413963835737 ], "mse": [ 56.89643026765243, 269.1293038930743, 87.27850354097768, 64.95327516169901, 930.6289288311813, 382.99881719667223, 81.10255920020495, 91.56086280308612, 93.32313795991217, 2809.5991206864032, 1031.8621400121467, 89.20961399906376, 930.0373103253147, 1568.8268118278183, 374.4492654253048, 80.3065025659424, 1110.6236637443542, 45.87094403246647, 149.8877633759504, 220.18927923443331, 384.290227309812, 301.6941638655415, 271.0503532926247, 91.96084145108516 ], "var": [ 141.11276900932648, 708.2352784542311, 542.9818008990543, 237.94138912807546, 2130.8087637116023, 930.5400294669516, 228.6552601723129, 447.96245128160285, 547.5603873384811, 802.205700784784, 427.3759720239855, 472.2726773863413, 1105.2444539341718, 531.9145852941515, 465.6561825928848, 344.9447887767702, 525.2310645159338, 293.3489572860141, 367.44646214067535, 315.3046302773559, 767.070437577049, 454.6643464306416, 1387.7758077699186, 254.04980829603946 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 7.754117986716383, "crpss": 0.062498475201533066, "rps": 0.4786933945393894, "rpss": -0.05710742630326715, "mean_bias_mm": 0.4535852181256305, "mean_mae_mm": 11.937233493961264, "mean_rmse_mm": 21.906743463298696, "spread_error_ratio": 1.1193200852697833, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.10019739276763864, "pit_histogram": [ 0.07295, 0.08237, 0.0886, 0.08968, 0.09608, 0.09767, 0.11088, 0.13237, 0.13532, 0.09407 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.15715583105401099 } }, "operational": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 3.005031861515845, 3.01350021912037, 10.23467876352053, 3.7778568136833233, 3.97081700052338, 5.173439804354498, 7.020451111441087, 1.914626564173134 ], "crps_clim": [ 3.840649245962226, 2.9635126140043284, 11.660524877797739, 2.9183695971477044, 3.477601142846446, 4.259321637104846, 3.1351156438044105, 3.1728418151724775 ], "rps": [ 0.41172993692504173, 0.45992404456079355, 0.3926105894870832, 0.4641274709617225, 0.4396045474412129, 0.5250712059370046, 0.7012660614482032, 0.2863568407371453 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.524230481898705, 0.4593885401867237, 0.5017173979879027, 0.4051068206667376, 0.4317667103339062, 0.4153152702181896, 0.47288784486408364, 0.4886335324867942 ], "bias": [ 8.088971211283257, 1.5266774830430347, -5.391736509869454, -2.0045765767922945, -0.3519775421332017, -2.374750351783893, 13.838861715437547, 5.41290640487533 ], "mae": [ 8.14469192042166, 4.908892839745536, 12.114631710365467, 4.7641596898797784, 6.151734916382264, 6.872050061867525, 14.909652003186066, 5.608532499493432 ], "mse": [ 192.09518907920108, 58.73874199136576, 402.56203033944325, 117.5961553881351, 155.67449238727028, 173.11858699049407, 465.45001920580523, 73.56737948814275 ], "var": [ 328.8613778965247, 272.2709262090446, 729.0906091085668, 142.21476972569747, 216.06217330778327, 306.3672917026909, 861.3408151141452, 326.1999453659168 ], "zero": [ 0.003351655625804476, 0.0031168267325980296, 0.003155915182081504, 0.0029083660343228574, 0.003037053371817907, 0.0033778701881484294, 0.0030905964104758696, 0.003197028093681791 ] }, "crps": 4.76380026729152, "crpss": -0.07571611061516648, "rps": 0.4600863371872759, "rpss": 0.004962333037807465, "mean_bias_mm": 2.343046979257541, "mean_mae_mm": 7.934293205167716, "mean_rmse_mm": 14.312593208735173, "spread_error_ratio": 1.3935244757892749, "zero_fraction": 0.003154413954866358, "correlation": 0.22725495861470857, "pit_histogram": [ 0.07728, 0.07684, 0.10066, 0.09728, 0.1063, 0.09742, 0.12788, 0.12738, 0.11105, 0.07791 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.14654029192301082 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 3.2739759470978034, 3.7613761425219985, 11.751199414606438, 3.9763580498959903, 1.9661213527608865, 3.1659502393735064, 9.620349414729738, 2.1781577883747705 ], "crps_clim": [ 4.156168553465009, 3.538722242103148, 14.589550778766494, 3.336016465541637, 3.2225107652008003, 2.991934313605765, 3.4730598185838906, 3.692380181189609 ], "rps": [ 0.3383789674439741, 0.5605545046914546, 0.31810510760037125, 0.4124086781597042, 0.28978454395806635, 0.40292231671926443, 0.6827858687665804, 0.3385270118095726 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5378222677027902, 0.46540376292499014, 0.544167761935176, 0.42259006334453925, 0.4687251767879638, 0.37920455847261086, 0.47625759961208325, 0.48392303022441024 ], "bias": [ 9.554368574033521, -0.4863152744797146, -3.968186681203625, -1.4413419623064458, 4.490506075318424, 2.394726715943775, 20.091186309582213, 6.727328007298527 ], "mae": [ 9.554368574033521, 4.796087370931381, 12.711171351075771, 5.229118097814033, 5.054917891728083, 5.989335362018551, 20.091186309582213, 6.727328007298527 ], "mse": [ 240.7946036814798, 72.89660604139824, 329.0001809485345, 141.4678217072189, 48.116342699712554, 87.0300985392277, 696.1113033622416, 100.89611094347669 ], "var": [ 429.4840881322622, 255.46833159553395, 1180.3415255918044, 172.0067912705307, 237.41314096143842, 379.79644918518443, 1230.1272692491661, 331.1377529205988 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 4.9616860436701415, "crpss": -0.017772798275119905, "rps": 0.4179333748936235, "rpss": 0.11503874610623455, "mean_bias_mm": 4.670283970523335, "mean_mae_mm": 8.76918912056026, "mean_rmse_mm": 14.647154450281844, "spread_error_ratio": 1.5672579280885486, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.38038885979726794, "pit_histogram": [ 0.0687, 0.09804, 0.11914, 0.13088, 0.13134, 0.09055, 0.12422, 0.1015, 0.10025, 0.03538 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.21466367525962532 } }, "full": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 2.2537705998167255, 3.6138987269522365, 10.577891811881578, 1.8393170448493845, 11.38775307375977, 3.964024871595111, 2.9271091789864427, 5.335737794961923, 3.274242678953849, 17.926120067731024, 17.47931088796243, 3.522008777630241, 8.145125111275227, 23.43770975253561, 4.336619656409284, 1.9682109927829718, 12.711844669641527, 3.564293525080891, 3.747888800670245, 4.606043930665277, 5.062352788493383, 3.9730324147328453, 6.9144146415081025, 2.9037083544774824, 3.087472344111427, 2.860738218804327, 10.04606868630665, 3.725173753821832, 3.747907044663369, 5.076861156928701, 6.792470256874676, 1.79548572792328 ], "crps_clim": [ 2.8572571807760165, 3.1865323464856155, 10.383599749568983, 2.5619649424777258, 15.714771517105724, 3.3680154534657665, 2.765672743937594, 5.300295600051972, 2.8388059419872405, 21.851414927820926, 17.1664341858879, 3.7370645400554223, 3.942032189422852, 25.551792834412236, 3.6290536020800803, 2.8900168246080717, 14.071028267301827, 3.0762760995886107, 3.6632019409978067, 3.7186259353467004, 3.564689968626687, 2.839593289203478, 7.19932849431782, 3.43605995135926, 3.8609579743608737, 2.8299285708739577, 12.23962820019987, 2.794216883727665, 3.293480646075853, 4.260034824273769, 3.0060012627324424, 3.1366202401449357 ], "rps": [ 0.4472356031963577, 0.4363687175313651, 0.46281019839998705, 0.3864196403434907, 0.4042403472837404, 0.5911388405847057, 0.52032231787981, 0.5849034695658988, 0.5034326498880104, 0.3159635148863017, 0.4893386912025506, 0.5034026491226438, 0.7691293782601443, 0.3360101096235888, 0.5499483238805408, 0.2476427062624978, 0.41834713890151926, 0.5283324350041085, 0.44658959869105724, 0.5802750010136896, 0.5973423254281374, 0.46526104977725274, 0.39882471321458224, 0.44750322671336856, 0.4167139845746111, 0.4568012124138536, 0.3627547626480469, 0.5099213221895266, 0.4431855719762352, 0.524166520438746, 0.6944614727803305, 0.2837586191839255 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.42597328472277496, 0.3506474587875527, 0.4500587082647611, 0.32853144302379395, 0.4793056617036147, 0.4798374907327482, 0.3541533787330895, 0.4731556449679077, 0.3927115296130284, 0.5155155067499355, 0.5115992154696631, 0.4372196861501219, 0.5134082784354855, 0.5544160313927202, 0.4916821403090456, 0.46169725845021364, 0.48685690274881205, 0.4101509392762119, 0.472007224293684, 0.4017865592049955, 0.4940497459609742, 0.37193747436870483, 0.4453370890748853, 0.4489261212476537, 0.5165803609034532, 0.4475995691106898, 0.5228420289369178, 0.41806933442655636, 0.4281627076345683, 0.41613299701643813, 0.4679489278571733, 0.4937218068532966 ], "bias": [ 5.306251880694691, 3.990800749901743, -9.635075359121574, 2.116464137800057, 2.4785697314446398, 10.921221197525734, -0.46223293487453687, -0.7769906694716554, 3.4458748677341804, -17.666917926910028, -16.72057833121866, 1.034991552341788, 17.63592153390258, -26.111270638517656, 10.143565474701822, 2.54626640394322, -11.878025088039024, -1.7587942160156667, -1.0135561770483488, -3.493744596889413, 11.506451840720379, 9.851867081637005, 2.1561039003874636, 4.176409241504205, 7.8218304273510375, 1.13337954678933, -6.52787689853692, -2.4002159125033935, -0.7945795788963625, -2.856335724755691, 13.406089497924576, 5.018933773240588 ], "mae": [ 5.746994459495897, 6.4955403632675, 12.343663496132097, 3.452107947294065, 16.60188163604554, 10.942312497572527, 3.8619107984204857, 6.470138126233533, 5.237831570521727, 21.608637234556998, 19.18917484473048, 5.169965556401531, 17.63592153390258, 26.5893591120731, 10.167614504334972, 3.9498107071047492, 15.58218177437867, 4.62064765299062, 4.8323580169953555, 5.732907676631312, 11.520729304529782, 9.882263421833704, 11.146816747061546, 6.168237642825927, 7.860365830582297, 4.527489601874342, 11.828476822577281, 4.656054436935127, 5.65179371978612, 6.608059709870828, 14.138966916815875, 5.135395788720481 ], "mse": [ 74.86498571363335, 157.29620287057938, 703.8886911221869, 35.57298663303772, 666.4471928551868, 250.30146469035049, 55.79058584256634, 121.13242945116154, 75.82877842458691, 1672.7623675704308, 625.710448306559, 82.75552821681183, 783.4623943846127, 1604.9773501424093, 308.77788124528536, 47.38464412127476, 1020.102389431179, 81.10554571462488, 78.62346254682988, 159.41724859412057, 395.3878268950686, 223.3677574091057, 259.1201170229019, 90.96303254901957, 187.9868928113773, 53.30585194644055, 376.6168760401979, 117.7820314855803, 143.4351562784401, 165.51530175228703, 418.7456248032291, 63.47515091158675 ], "var": [ 172.5759602078058, 415.57045823696933, 330.56895721925747, 149.58569931257801, 1099.734335079665, 553.1556481439245, 214.67181198849974, 364.1228256105644, 370.3381520187506, 655.0198183199592, 323.68733776893475, 328.7075944811263, 775.6674111215189, 319.41548199641846, 377.5464960788776, 284.973008461191, 442.37556096482894, 231.98164057124563, 221.83900758975497, 178.1607260474101, 532.2113076628839, 357.4631938390849, 622.5618783496126, 230.7633150283481, 281.73080704003337, 238.05323342805173, 605.7580261359104, 124.58631928415963, 187.96120221892022, 272.9289606883338, 764.8149440460107, 286.82355729245916 ], "zero": [ 0.0028041817229816834, 0.003257102982429192, 0.003016782165692483, 0.0029905611720229108, 0.002910662027134554, 0.0029634214303578383, 0.0028850844382653897, 0.0029644486348931586, 0.0031771160826377697, 0.002777357255844268, 0.002778280965460714, 0.0029638680025323213, 0.0027504350465556507, 0.0028048611111094754, 0.0026714927743466503, 0.0029896831465067077, 0.002805237351428, 0.0027254974215397774, 0.003123085659948197, 0.0030704067386868707, 0.002912964027291444, 0.00320296117069659, 0.00288452219433492, 0.0029112883435956343, 0.0030630448520629957, 0.00296023805002028, 0.002919875139816248, 0.002855795302846635, 0.003037053371817907, 0.0029588074964076185, 0.002828100503771205, 0.002866036605896706 ] }, "crps": 6.33139397946212, "crpss": 0.01040269645135905, "rps": 0.47257956602689455, "rpss": -0.04567297597178155, "mean_bias_mm": 0.39358746208581574, "mean_mae_mm": 9.542362795390533, "mean_rmse_mm": 18.626177981021982, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0532336456782516, "zero_fraction": 0.0029321954121541184, "correlation": 0.05263673877301805, "pit_histogram": [ 0.07903, 0.07829, 0.0933, 0.09447, 0.09333, 0.09617, 0.10696, 0.12569, 0.13237, 0.1004 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.1308238034682167 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 1.9075656475863931, 4.752065148523123, 3.5439617095703295, 1.7263209741209748, 15.083579096821406, 4.551648256077322, 3.5577743975549914, 4.5030275373055675, 3.2846872112082606, 25.54205862428347, 26.906692554840102, 3.6323076927707336, 8.257726451237394, 24.656479383428444, 5.099074552020065, 1.5766751650624133, 14.018985015984104, 2.3354111018932184, 7.050976246409463, 5.565731513102573, 3.8264350840498085, 4.327227255024948, 5.214451209828666, 3.3207603379159543, 3.1832557401536894, 3.767897467725358, 11.808047713573178, 4.066052030297218, 1.7726109551031726, 2.998807754264719, 9.259060664736655, 2.0637673218032098 ], "crps_clim": [ 2.8175577367545985, 3.9021745191382493, 3.3034198610233836, 3.0658976041547716, 27.95661134379484, 3.362418886433096, 3.1100028100913844, 4.094088898027647, 2.797475683019447, 31.07358038415444, 26.285415911798307, 3.5258493082035396, 4.105091866216406, 26.621986127319055, 3.742042717578652, 3.517340209583741, 15.411353025851831, 2.673910822235419, 5.68084916383337, 4.795224659874851, 3.5512909190087862, 2.905159579919633, 5.944050077935008, 4.117186323773333, 4.037389747963682, 3.4488650528891722, 15.716463704166275, 3.2680339255822792, 3.0328683611021146, 2.8141009404740527, 3.4247012737105678, 3.5844382254089533 ], "rps": [ 0.45815515253148076, 0.4227977856959603, 0.45271064691354596, 0.3448196334063936, 0.23567270232803908, 0.5960650828346925, 0.5022490215031512, 0.5682988423533871, 0.6992655036055819, 0.30768453220571723, 0.5930749498881248, 0.5529639716846368, 0.7976136753469086, 0.3496852002553803, 0.681916812916886, 0.18999728134586213, 0.38203719439710043, 0.3077861697030622, 0.7097109712172033, 0.5547513508860815, 0.42614833789069895, 0.5425062419911558, 0.4000280940442035, 0.46437406609148424, 0.337661160956413, 0.5815025701697198, 0.2761542377398051, 0.4606829745236461, 0.2880102007678069, 0.380412397566598, 0.6655432479129153, 0.3388404507765152 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4298711247134212, 0.33951771473196274, 0.3580324977963315, 0.3440075796304816, 0.5614000118944327, 0.42739667374627904, 0.31854005006647745, 0.4274262614020923, 0.4024604048415598, 0.5070497366915091, 0.5496038326833845, 0.44190671299078577, 0.5231727861116291, 0.5620037572257898, 0.5267904535413438, 0.5284018227909777, 0.48322502696648467, 0.40592076688279005, 0.44404886379291797, 0.4240421871939146, 0.4646575370925135, 0.37305364252256173, 0.4173925133581936, 0.4446715007416715, 0.5288605928241447, 0.4618809475548823, 0.5613869457241275, 0.4470539791818982, 0.45697580457229925, 0.3508328348614358, 0.47125617734541536, 0.4764068519243777 ], "bias": [ 4.42934504506879, 4.879627658934695, 0.7921916317993255, 4.403239004413877, -8.947901750870425, 13.290353093714783, -2.119304180464294, -0.986804188588804, 3.4393094105941806, -27.66069568785237, -28.928050649294704, 2.6338637530159397, 19.095333033343508, -27.271223487674277, 11.350838787397112, 4.901885665623239, -14.205108942170984, 0.6377652145517108, -5.637024114008861, -4.425978530742139, 10.656416612858205, 10.684411953719415, 9.466573519070277, 2.533972450502401, 8.872063575343255, -1.224831953471537, -6.1870939265583, -2.148561099902066, 3.7872905253896896, 1.5573503232422976, 18.95748700825501, 6.020052573352852 ], "mae": [ 4.562381537054893, 8.581267071675393, 4.209244893982666, 4.890339350627722, 18.97022935422128, 13.290353093714783, 4.3780501219298475, 5.5786902478728555, 4.9441952645866785, 31.61063343021213, 28.973195437874264, 5.516904659908722, 19.095333033343508, 27.61941156899731, 11.408214515752034, 4.90229531545746, 18.493582304924114, 4.266425438280348, 7.770895850349856, 6.222771641948517, 10.66167579901693, 10.684411953719415, 10.839416565989795, 6.349797548767439, 8.872063575343255, 4.692743835298354, 12.705288058082804, 5.296335883747417, 4.4326583763484955, 5.493864470992778, 18.95748700825501, 6.020052573352852 ], "mse": [ 46.60151664924559, 219.19891758979534, 80.76992458052844, 53.037750394363286, 906.5071705718725, 308.8557416485086, 87.18773112280981, 95.4418907596007, 74.46326783809673, 2943.780091315837, 1070.8780044744979, 78.19684315231, 792.7505947631569, 1614.2954526259941, 308.1023212025399, 62.757711547147416, 1179.2333920026078, 44.41011003213121, 159.90144198262874, 227.55872385953555, 328.32205830679743, 248.7202557182302, 196.20041041203288, 86.01179292999605, 219.6850398430132, 74.93409554238741, 321.6083880650894, 149.7881179797382, 38.58803594677219, 84.03521997235566, 617.994019963825, 85.86763862330326 ], "var": [ 117.37340230555493, 559.5713109397617, 451.2024239698511, 196.27028981130366, 1689.0323482794224, 784.6383241962488, 194.13128542849734, 366.254251704705, 446.8264455545507, 660.9416703383305, 356.35618509812275, 377.8888172465524, 902.9873412101815, 441.4792181546271, 370.097016071049, 287.1833110776729, 427.6009519481515, 262.7421446557739, 305.429784483397, 260.50184295836806, 642.8730621753443, 366.893783558423, 1065.8918963418996, 217.56893081040866, 360.2332793206823, 216.2755968834565, 984.1053712299582, 144.8422977345376, 200.18701095524978, 329.9732938289937, 1100.0615929964279, 279.1316246019361 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 6.973785056696154, "crpss": 0.06111284022644592, "rps": 0.4646600144203174, "rpss": -0.028346763232632854, "mean_bias_mm": 0.39521226026849376, "mean_mae_mm": 10.634069055675905, "mean_rmse_mm": 20.004439875481978, "spread_error_ratio": 1.095435338044684, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.1381720238711964, "pit_histogram": [ 0.06631, 0.08009, 0.08456, 0.09145, 0.10432, 0.0995, 0.10907, 0.12735, 0.14435, 0.093 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.17016562777940233 } }, "distribution_full": { "ethiopia": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0348472954818093, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.03549675781296922 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 1.1599268698276146, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.17844352427267224 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.8353214270116369, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.1878392790780988 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9757213836450335, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.08220017308896181 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.130833690434599, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.1839940653572364 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": -0.0026604902231364895 } }, "ondj_domain": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0299458690065522, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.03214172343379179 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 1.146754164957352, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.1431229706711912 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.8114192125886163, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.20641711637895696 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9700950411487957, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.084878808912237 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.1405381217419845, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.21661344465310933 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": 0.0 } } } }, "sdm": { "training": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 2.0733348644791083, 3.987113374627527, 11.419445717786433, 2.341041505490597, 10.868200757151872, 3.211583820415055, 3.517397825250994, 5.78043676782148, 3.599484379766718, 19.04613509225798, 18.25786463166024, 4.111663854083225, 6.865810000221073, 25.159348170017317, 3.8339564316828034, 2.6176880208067383, 13.413880020757203, 4.212223588996665, 4.342902267776388, 5.380174215147785, 4.320972955525149, 3.340467770973689, 7.5052541088829, 3.090456708905819 ], "crps_clim": [ 3.069144896531585, 3.3858676721658623, 10.074246020518368, 2.773361990265274, 15.332066536235006, 3.604951743610606, 2.9367188887863067, 5.050819710999868, 3.0258348712866763, 21.012210746646392, 16.801010670653753, 3.7894449827302754, 4.194423053287697, 25.04733364035127, 3.8894382629868667, 3.276619104881488, 13.516550290161696, 3.1815721446141088, 3.8044427745910094, 3.8505600739044343, 3.8413777807512575, 3.029724174279054, 7.270640397516081, 3.55202677848655 ], "rps": [ 0.32155219556962966, 0.5031132234691909, 0.6037809773663229, 0.4092033671620024, 0.5460334301702506, 0.4321947828730995, 0.5857232020679, 0.6816276669607408, 0.6263990670342191, 0.5952960551129836, 0.735598452240546, 0.6634168143792591, 0.6076411990781664, 0.6929509224580284, 0.41930920903567825, 0.22515136881202563, 0.491738690946719, 0.5015070827932859, 0.4503902451753267, 0.6992000425830052, 0.4233287243328472, 0.42600971461524995, 0.5185190529384964, 0.492075503387746 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4625629239522452, 0.36451731789334524, 0.44125991446339186, 0.36766510384083156, 0.4796288408201259, 0.5018388021804165, 0.38147740265907437, 0.45785739893807914, 0.37358783510004456, 0.5052606258044735, 0.5036552005735562, 0.4358799343390295, 0.5001476339830571, 0.5372757885017574, 0.4967176371371437, 0.4833984207814198, 0.48412488996957304, 0.42298688095193837, 0.47887418976886764, 0.4007717998366474, 0.49873748259985246, 0.40202165211061897, 0.4457035075298269, 0.452337281302436 ], "bias": [ 3.701305434377606, 2.3851687165130975, -11.224527072207941, 0.7749166497113276, 0.4952568605791978, 9.23309979582718, -1.678855694604424, -2.2155544396399436, 1.6181732750146958, -19.972309852092504, -18.654370551183813, -0.6527481033269483, 15.492632005697569, -28.179709072465894, 8.481872746339885, 1.1906555005465254, -13.732243490164114, -2.9764375070075597, -2.3516737991741237, -4.769744874185078, 9.552742978435973, 8.06731370360556, 0.36572560379976665, 2.5168205237162544 ], "mae": [ 4.501978282373477, 6.269590797230609, 13.116661998202543, 3.5456515366641184, 15.358782874376423, 9.355851259565316, 3.8398988348705125, 6.6089040429458, 4.740930214377168, 22.516184389148208, 19.712606223704494, 5.113335580471362, 15.529456096200986, 28.518826870203355, 8.784475458471029, 3.6338929115543057, 15.927892180349843, 4.919787127934002, 4.563545917451604, 6.421322023670128, 9.708233038387117, 8.411163191992813, 11.126973454856389, 5.460071872203907 ], "mse": [ 58.662689461677694, 143.55674540945864, 755.8262343744128, 34.807774673037535, 626.2697248134925, 208.7322891182149, 56.457397490927, 123.52047729711568, 72.9859009268029, 1754.7849891299452, 674.505617087644, 91.32913241843077, 693.7932582523256, 1772.1262431506264, 260.8784645272352, 50.907014941970125, 1064.336984025441, 88.2987308841342, 85.2785883000591, 183.9753464143646, 344.1426516922153, 185.74804023347716, 288.3696274852487, 76.79968269130086 ], "var": [ 187.22552879261812, 489.5965707343618, 377.71034301293247, 172.30600508456143, 1154.5493046933673, 599.9747208018864, 229.84330793843762, 417.921269261885, 413.49788506770955, 711.771821066698, 360.4008745220826, 391.28255435560067, 842.585569343921, 346.96143403624967, 415.007464697402, 307.3271482753902, 505.04719289753314, 245.5734835513083, 253.6185061278425, 210.96728976366526, 549.8702636292693, 405.88088731008213, 764.1269235392435, 244.59534541179931 ], "zero": [ 0.3210442962059566, 0.34699433680410496, 0.3377082316858682, 0.3650791839915809, 0.1871267869074358, 0.2741877371972816, 0.47140855043503854, 0.37115255482713616, 0.33978153528298527, 0.2588421763120453, 0.2914457387235133, 0.3064229255236126, 0.2728112417993085, 0.26516417107293694, 0.34303741504691515, 0.45507215002161927, 0.34081632854505245, 0.47210696580684447, 0.4375683573990578, 0.3692052192390946, 0.312782859888187, 0.2904432192363359, 0.258611497355041, 0.3272173244073282 ] }, "crps": 7.179034868770198, "crpss": -0.0176389038707081, "rps": 0.5271567079401134, "rpss": -0.1630286355454551, "mean_bias_mm": -1.772187110911988, "mean_mae_mm": 9.903584007383563, "mean_rmse_mm": 20.099848263108395, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0454570996478452, "zero_fraction": 0.334001283488095, "correlation": 0.03571930655582703, "pit_histogram": [ 0.03692, 0.04616, 0.0445, 0.05656, 0.06833, 0.09741, 0.12233, 0.17984, 0.20905, 0.13889 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.500220076588652 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 1.9273604026262494, 5.0025170644834205, 4.066883792358872, 2.0276905459070824, 15.594758503542973, 3.556049154406121, 4.070000908804515, 5.0870609996645815, 3.787796921026228, 26.948838782209947, 28.09071357650232, 4.302994832907461, 7.230584212111748, 26.01707132017105, 4.427067628545874, 2.021532823935836, 14.635511268121393, 2.8990111539828707, 7.812086959899545, 6.251471733252875, 3.784890937669386, 3.4872526278603084, 5.289768742230617, 3.8043219619250945 ], "crps_clim": [ 3.134642569756797, 4.0368873592733205, 3.423335292543674, 3.3738802296500032, 27.106814106125587, 3.7253738930894196, 3.249450552047323, 4.035569151257637, 2.965809999169824, 30.070724508266622, 25.830159399346183, 3.580613889817456, 4.549159240055732, 25.77593644509466, 4.188541565312743, 3.9517287715065783, 14.718801138616833, 2.963090816144978, 5.6582471562161265, 4.848776670389135, 3.9672709222205658, 3.261152428150299, 5.930891894544658, 4.158239602390194 ], "rps": [ 0.31945508056641486, 0.5566612358866523, 0.5295072566041213, 0.35761917046560404, 0.338938764935817, 0.45044785313615543, 0.6223725305311693, 0.7209624152299449, 0.8107944363233285, 0.5824436338674746, 0.9615972357656712, 0.8366139534222181, 0.6202367966910223, 0.7278062099111586, 0.5601039115437738, 0.11233478704621953, 0.3906024766183848, 0.23046223164084664, 0.7902084351734029, 0.7261398057387071, 0.32770283183654686, 0.4485305843879471, 0.49900334702424404, 0.6519181891427183 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4612583063145251, 0.36325581037926996, 0.3548837655357383, 0.3845191261452081, 0.5442138131835412, 0.47392048479376536, 0.3369486554725916, 0.41421918051654527, 0.37845219279141734, 0.4951720255695432, 0.5339101560355515, 0.4478677807232184, 0.5122698437472656, 0.5463196106078548, 0.5151171353423272, 0.5367285502205256, 0.4864254375606979, 0.45042529314649876, 0.45228609712142287, 0.40382417088714717, 0.4727414090541605, 0.43354624566717376, 0.435070354227705, 0.43462262504974214 ], "bias": [ 3.487343772164541, 3.788378773753034, -0.07958378279682415, 3.5548508484538326, -9.431987549420167, 12.060819813261736, -2.8375077176653276, -1.8035069699813226, 2.540139441494805, -29.483880634103112, -30.098298535266174, 1.50570557198751, 17.82749540511089, -28.931983047589938, 10.16532694998522, 4.026834968165046, -15.593163101228857, -0.28738978205347476, -6.628310349405105, -5.367321333748679, 9.651440600847083, 9.496468328898155, 8.161984636392589, 1.276859540910883 ], "mae": [ 3.876905288581733, 8.147852893144572, 4.020559341336412, 4.572780494325881, 19.03529875566819, 12.060819813261736, 4.3867985400311005, 5.908237921364815, 5.070156615363205, 32.71739177180579, 30.12329265704738, 5.489238129987005, 17.83329606476593, 29.241918268825714, 10.524481352348566, 4.441742306180689, 18.679965471113523, 3.9334531276559144, 8.146874344195536, 6.919850163827156, 9.877788701760826, 9.51615771239195, 10.039519966821537, 6.2336560901833975 ], "mse": [ 40.83184369210123, 185.83754078595797, 77.53630907251615, 49.05576004310358, 887.0995603493891, 265.2395723386574, 87.73464179732557, 109.86541181492295, 75.68342339489595, 3123.8812401547098, 1156.4003767945803, 75.48014410026323, 745.8535263216326, 1761.9501787926085, 268.23703339438526, 57.840263362257815, 1245.096348302102, 41.228973630070186, 177.3486741391852, 247.80524849592604, 316.3059027972392, 217.98950717417634, 181.9132512840627, 84.9508866713078 ], "var": [ 143.3944864051535, 681.1424237308471, 531.8990078915912, 235.36507478798757, 1784.028194472372, 853.7332418335609, 228.9639403970211, 445.4725318918745, 530.7358088914286, 755.4552908920487, 415.59540691793353, 460.8741071472336, 1031.6585252466173, 471.01724602661653, 451.4992531335082, 332.9990037963987, 512.0281387359817, 273.22057931092525, 355.81763796734907, 306.64271641684206, 709.7446395207405, 441.0423308073968, 1301.0300678292738, 245.02136434361577 ], "zero": [ 0.3963789660227115, 0.40429647878714914, 0.44092591969219036, 0.42837059458805915, 0.27043350854530296, 0.29804663019556166, 0.549962540098907, 0.4677548474737231, 0.5036313012705974, 0.3441322640095308, 0.3742417555584729, 0.3845391195630396, 0.35859764805231237, 0.3066376831672416, 0.3934975894081176, 0.5688926093084365, 0.400133806666833, 0.5167879084785538, 0.5376376953538223, 0.4442543269107069, 0.45192204611001574, 0.33499581451972227, 0.3694924343801081, 0.39927116161836596 ] }, "crps": 8.005134868922765, "crpss": 0.03214960635251851, "rps": 0.5488526322287309, "rpss": -0.21204136111668404, "mean_bias_mm": -1.7916368396597357, "mean_mae_mm": 11.283251491332857, "mean_rmse_mm": 21.87194323281101, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0842959871378732, "zero_fraction": 0.4143681104074784, "correlation": 0.12026802978454017, "pit_histogram": [ 0.0232, 0.03951, 0.04007, 0.0519, 0.0537, 0.08377, 0.11367, 0.19398, 0.26071, 0.13949 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.6156931574095235 } }, "operational": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 2.793047106545568, 3.337468985879044, 11.087778130736925, 4.303188640978281, 4.373124259374727, 5.735861643359908, 5.419999157315793, 2.1631482775577973 ], "crps_clim": [ 3.840649245962226, 2.9635126140043284, 11.660524877797739, 2.9183695971477044, 3.477601142846446, 4.259321637104846, 3.1351156438044105, 3.1728418151724775 ], "rps": [ 0.32662521246743925, 0.4868373163897869, 0.6602213921956447, 0.4987679698158855, 0.4619137811729062, 0.6503368210921979, 0.657175805688859, 0.24626497855277216 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.524230481898705, 0.4593885401867237, 0.5017173979879027, 0.4051068206667376, 0.4317667103339062, 0.4153152702181896, 0.47288784486408364, 0.4886335324867942 ], "bias": [ 6.257164160162057, -0.19192364528951616, -8.072999753237351, -3.5127403331692184, -2.010388637888191, -4.2073322262660895, 10.67354433645514, 3.7188057860723354 ], "mae": [ 6.46467791270392, 4.200917788990352, 12.439737648556159, 4.884108429192907, 5.511940612741304, 6.899954398746345, 11.8712045677909, 4.231802129257066 ], "mse": [ 161.47185344404375, 53.728474473089626, 415.0843488300265, 125.47070640187255, 151.77204547224272, 180.61806899308306, 332.32177757310956, 55.38352246197414 ], "var": [ 323.4943180644496, 272.5441992647331, 702.7583502184344, 144.0328669440923, 219.05128042648417, 296.0034416440344, 804.9658045390797, 321.27802242050586 ], "zero": [ 0.36648194917798094, 0.3875339844279367, 0.2877732673085239, 0.44481497547706184, 0.43012724948314446, 0.3659489308577823, 0.24679541748619815, 0.44679601738097535 ] }, "crps": 4.901702025218506, "crpss": -0.10685577524442103, "rps": 0.49851790967193643, "rpss": -0.07815437600556341, "mean_bias_mm": 0.3317662108548959, "mean_mae_mm": 7.06304293599737, "mean_rmse_mm": 13.582391163053002, "spread_error_ratio": 1.44558951600579, "zero_fraction": 0.3720339739499504, "correlation": 0.2082800890461897, "pit_histogram": [ 0.03645, 0.04045, 0.04165, 0.05409, 0.06762, 0.09683, 0.14291, 0.1815, 0.22245, 0.11605 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.5258325366724536 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 2.8984496708622323, 4.1711590465471335, 12.642494727673041, 4.498184261928329, 2.151373783331661, 3.4738348132360684, 7.180641216115156, 2.2321334363654644 ], "crps_clim": [ 4.156168553465009, 3.538722242103148, 14.589550778766494, 3.336016465541637, 3.2225107652008003, 2.991934313605765, 3.4730598185838906, 3.692380181189609 ], "rps": [ 0.2092935046758082, 0.6226813931948334, 0.6714147732062096, 0.4523824870719762, 0.25670135357856616, 0.48999605603743984, 0.7144016889732842, 0.25374373658912514 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5378222677027902, 0.46540376292499014, 0.544167761935176, 0.42259006334453925, 0.4687251767879638, 0.37920455847261086, 0.47625759961208325, 0.48392303022441024 ], "bias": [ 7.5893478112917725, -2.0946297971437446, -7.3862145073089, -3.0481628877472606, 2.855772322742512, 0.5637429412095235, 16.26009443785083, 5.019163453671879 ], "mae": [ 7.690463653679598, 4.523210719168621, 12.817689115657062, 5.286473719770852, 3.7677160533962057, 5.0380829837898915, 16.26009443785083, 5.139763164915812 ], "mse": [ 194.53222479476952, 78.39970943665094, 319.2003364271112, 156.88755547315188, 31.758856916179422, 79.67461270273013, 465.71514113066, 77.19132749543813 ], "var": [ 416.3190019288076, 263.11753449584046, 1121.3526232488584, 172.87155950853264, 251.6538267682408, 376.7655639969133, 1132.243466398369, 326.46803024978306 ], "zero": [ 0.43010116436746654, 0.46102168336222843, 0.3317802856021561, 0.48978237112448164, 0.49977477881257243, 0.43674187032058226, 0.2774024580454534, 0.5027941716724211 ] }, "crps": 4.906033869507386, "crpss": -0.00635706811218828, "rps": 0.45882687416590534, "rpss": 0.028448000867681733, "mean_bias_mm": 2.469889221820827, "mean_mae_mm": 7.565436731028609, "mean_rmse_mm": 13.244620438015065, "spread_error_ratio": 1.70106473402257, "zero_fraction": 0.42867484791342025, "correlation": 0.34654186172867507, "pit_histogram": [ 0.04398, 0.03198, 0.03084, 0.06436, 0.06279, 0.09293, 0.14438, 0.18669, 0.26049, 0.08156 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.5831161268492661 } }, "full": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 2.031208107235327, 3.82569906322996, 11.567953457428759, 2.323012492982928, 10.667155218913397, 3.1066047744134755, 3.526748681301261, 5.919790044934171, 3.4086437977990287, 19.778181425723428, 18.564017555964075, 3.967499579451066, 6.7184208407801895, 25.418996600435708, 3.77494703683389, 2.420695148895294, 13.779638563090993, 4.197716017861928, 4.308745547242142, 5.277616790387325, 4.278310315833633, 3.1879738910552504, 7.016056699409121, 3.1267972732151956, 2.852143783743104, 3.2376988954014356, 11.051617294685176, 4.284260451576091, 4.21461917596111, 5.717609666321493, 5.126599934421393, 2.0863272701534883 ], "crps_clim": [ 2.8572571807760165, 3.1865323464856155, 10.383599749568983, 2.5619649424777258, 15.714771517105724, 3.3680154534657665, 2.765672743937594, 5.300295600051972, 2.8388059419872405, 21.851414927820926, 17.1664341858879, 3.7370645400554223, 3.942032189422852, 25.551792834412236, 3.6290536020800803, 2.8900168246080717, 14.071028267301827, 3.0762760995886107, 3.6632019409978067, 3.7186259353467004, 3.564689968626687, 2.839593289203478, 7.19932849431782, 3.43605995135926, 3.8609579743608737, 2.8299285708739577, 12.23962820019987, 2.794216883727665, 3.293480646075853, 4.260034824273769, 3.0060012627324424, 3.1366202401449357 ], "rps": [ 0.3309818326550801, 0.5514124633640126, 0.6231518711152619, 0.44127641552689295, 0.5340074162024739, 0.4357481763220578, 0.6092730002973595, 0.6964512859292757, 0.6653308661689221, 0.5942842748124337, 0.7476659903015507, 0.6681012873796007, 0.6459714291839277, 0.6929230163012909, 0.44604189157744617, 0.25308495122879393, 0.4999509321549388, 0.5707930802565431, 0.4798898112219778, 0.7296196608789142, 0.44238069509735367, 0.42749520943153907, 0.5009801565233164, 0.5218226847388294, 0.33322765175695096, 0.49488420293012686, 0.6683286385989949, 0.5536505059518029, 0.47620285196336704, 0.6818591139464893, 0.6685512206476446, 0.2491509513935663 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.42597328472277496, 0.3506474587875527, 0.4500587082647611, 0.32853144302379395, 0.4793056617036147, 0.4798374907327482, 0.3541533787330895, 0.4731556449679077, 0.3927115296130284, 0.5155155067499355, 0.5115992154696631, 0.4372196861501219, 0.5134082784354855, 0.5544160313927202, 0.4916821403090456, 0.46169725845021364, 0.48685690274881205, 0.4101509392762119, 0.472007224293684, 0.4017865592049955, 0.4940497459609742, 0.37193747436870483, 0.4453370890748853, 0.4489261212476537, 0.5165803609034532, 0.4475995691106898, 0.5228420289369178, 0.41806933442655636, 0.4281627076345683, 0.41613299701643813, 0.4679489278571733, 0.4937218068532966 ], "bias": [ 3.2750690973196774, 1.9582794975232347, -11.64613190677549, 0.5213160437492569, -0.8297487330614031, 8.394806937441214, -1.9437779921361382, -2.769969659367152, 1.1183465132624097, -20.52846395655327, -18.89701749530959, -1.1227408054810453, 14.340212706214732, -28.471941208192302, 7.93718021653889, 0.8385710373689238, -14.280141752052733, -3.347972622565109, -2.66775468284129, -5.175894206202924, 8.860178146584799, 7.257798901290062, -0.7312333075832352, 2.03200457095024, 5.956385939138952, -0.5740889873000291, -9.136215013160022, -3.8543855870265507, -2.4130888510957162, -4.692532670393485, 10.185124810809574, 3.400614549793913 ], "mae": [ 4.125496561255974, 5.941353517859753, 13.265328932193365, 3.536350798820688, 14.81636485590455, 8.53245418840462, 3.9072530885967462, 7.136555058710012, 4.36537491117543, 23.369534059492867, 20.183736951238764, 4.920093207235798, 14.38099065313564, 28.69221317358345, 8.276572018343723, 3.1625899558472534, 16.260340305124874, 4.992739017384339, 4.570195788750771, 6.381373574179097, 9.036973205996102, 7.621615335928729, 10.1731722502513, 5.18610058151144, 6.166401876044263, 3.9223857616840503, 12.387589550251828, 4.915977547805577, 5.24147465989773, 6.869875988131069, 11.068991222981404, 3.8766229043279092 ], "mse": [ 55.280041200753566, 123.56218723172297, 760.725682519158, 32.796036016239405, 597.3420725518772, 184.36728654410757, 60.99464838332914, 140.48433435884607, 61.299098842883716, 1855.60850721457, 700.8090822836955, 84.21183815015834, 641.5544253346573, 1779.0239197170401, 251.60823011542402, 38.70933065530822, 1119.0628338473402, 89.86290744799014, 87.9325443892675, 181.5830760513184, 324.6379457441028, 165.70429054581246, 243.6516082474407, 76.34225509772601, 157.09976192842353, 50.83890428715508, 402.8119199489271, 127.50066218528745, 144.20453320804896, 178.62971286714176, 291.1976908955704, 48.51162655251188 ], "var": [ 159.8348886951069, 412.2073233381346, 317.2006902223537, 150.00486778046798, 911.3364605229629, 495.2132703334636, 201.25156949512123, 351.56641800857153, 351.25868823847213, 603.3836309100134, 311.98216718011173, 329.3534533503791, 684.0185469426915, 290.9423916199334, 362.61178401834906, 264.0604551052057, 423.6156595902417, 208.87851385822904, 215.39502985838627, 175.61986939079932, 451.03079258022547, 333.91525898386124, 601.0629252394984, 207.5921409627716, 275.50898122038404, 238.27272668897746, 593.2954178435209, 126.59314754771371, 192.53456159026499, 259.8234088553061, 717.5571211284089, 282.2485454130274 ], "zero": [ 0.3251408525760752, 0.3508787352515565, 0.34118451001637673, 0.3694158027654217, 0.19740377713805302, 0.27879742335766927, 0.47414880613076626, 0.37347356099179646, 0.3446991005747218, 0.26410447307752716, 0.30669196371351415, 0.31014254632741434, 0.27752561056776065, 0.27681343569966693, 0.34700136536622284, 0.4581203679075965, 0.34513105743625483, 0.4743199779611497, 0.4442242567722682, 0.3779836951929345, 0.31539933237418477, 0.29505494538204524, 0.2640803493934471, 0.3308589187478821, 0.36795362602416226, 0.39191953482531194, 0.29209472672750125, 0.447653301802803, 0.4324804949254061, 0.3692788033371766, 0.2491157220227172, 0.4491457056549507 ] }, "crps": 6.586353293646276, "crpss": -0.02944746145220689, "rps": 0.5385779229955855, "rpss": -0.19170700558695852, "mean_bias_mm": -1.7814753271597379, "mean_mae_mm": 8.977627859439036, "mean_rmse_mm": 18.58926857285864, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0197552958360192, "zero_fraction": 0.348194899376323, "correlation": 0.06784260146467877, "pit_histogram": [ 0.0374, 0.04434, 0.04337, 0.05461, 0.06416, 0.09018, 0.12286, 0.17366, 0.223, 0.1464 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.5318427403435529 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 1.8119848156774145, 4.726208904997947, 3.9743579802056295, 1.942342044639011, 15.833238576582021, 3.1728987815850607, 4.155660893528804, 5.122700920927525, 3.6973927175083885, 27.824173986860195, 28.477684599470674, 4.1623046601908085, 6.606097729158204, 26.796391402800896, 4.005487031822229, 1.905465650434447, 15.2149786946288, 2.8923620397423906, 7.896344251230522, 6.39927609321742, 3.4705726182430956, 3.1161395812502226, 4.791881314301189, 3.9229542608481776, 2.8171414628126596, 4.2242640395691895, 12.883465282013798, 4.597571573571631, 2.01752329888397, 3.4023896064728265, 6.7999727551302565, 2.154733640674846 ], "crps_clim": [ 2.8175577367545985, 3.9021745191382493, 3.3034198610233836, 3.0658976041547716, 27.95661134379484, 3.362418886433096, 3.1100028100913844, 4.094088898027647, 2.797475683019447, 31.07358038415444, 26.285415911798307, 3.5258493082035396, 4.105091866216406, 26.621986127319055, 3.742042717578652, 3.517340209583741, 15.411353025851831, 2.673910822235419, 5.68084916383337, 4.795224659874851, 3.5512909190087862, 2.905159579919633, 5.944050077935008, 4.117186323773333, 4.037389747963682, 3.4488650528891722, 15.716463704166275, 3.2680339255822792, 3.0328683611021146, 2.8141009404740527, 3.4247012737105678, 3.5844382254089533 ], "rps": [ 0.35368396093142423, 0.5835626458381065, 0.5818055971182232, 0.3798738786185215, 0.37291104876056913, 0.4338713218834444, 0.6439397506634776, 0.762067115158546, 0.8858281401644571, 0.5939054779697335, 1.004489410214434, 0.8534900603998596, 0.6706838731694503, 0.7462148627217021, 0.5727907244783249, 0.15600829676207728, 0.4249034590517258, 0.35688739346812876, 0.8558849736409582, 0.8032259053926013, 0.3438131073929927, 0.4735385340939681, 0.5023747079001726, 0.708622266704489, 0.22224157663877453, 0.6634405546800806, 0.6809149944376233, 0.5110415123381732, 0.27294828799711673, 0.52136767075793, 0.7264221914324451, 0.2611995230644538 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4298711247134212, 0.33951771473196274, 0.3580324977963315, 0.3440075796304816, 0.5614000118944327, 0.42739667374627904, 0.31854005006647745, 0.4274262614020923, 0.4024604048415598, 0.5070497366915091, 0.5496038326833845, 0.44190671299078577, 0.5231727861116291, 0.5620037572257898, 0.5267904535413438, 0.5284018227909777, 0.48322502696648467, 0.40592076688279005, 0.44404886379291797, 0.4240421871939146, 0.4646575370925135, 0.37305364252256173, 0.4173925133581936, 0.4446715007416715, 0.5288605928241447, 0.4618809475548823, 0.5613869457241275, 0.4470539791818982, 0.45697580457229925, 0.3508328348614358, 0.47125617734541536, 0.4764068519243777 ], "bias": [ 2.807081660895426, 2.580282214586803, -1.0384156800771838, 2.832677131793881, -11.953384680081276, 10.600906392275514, -3.4249647896059425, -2.665832504070541, 1.5944968133394357, -30.562731913942333, -30.794050373711553, 0.5563447582882128, 15.920608567690866, -29.767926848662142, 8.998367143490075, 3.3115645560657287, -16.542491155641276, -0.9220933737818967, -7.294077811477691, -6.148675864083794, 8.465564209538828, 8.293289760354323, 6.147440412095344, 0.5143310918613844, 6.941286934765418, -2.754689146162212, -9.335748461297754, -3.619238316076362, 2.279499976750902, -0.1802519205476517, 15.212217539076729, 4.481572884276158 ], "mae": [ 3.4110406337499968, 7.316738294433027, 3.9314484803966514, 4.127907758193076, 19.014494129640383, 10.601795978087218, 4.603081248865581, 6.141915330886183, 4.763244511152249, 33.44845176055262, 30.79870682981784, 5.2048735602131435, 15.927327145993974, 29.98255798731781, 9.362758895415137, 3.755112747410133, 19.087619211935376, 3.81667054226177, 8.508590948172467, 7.246818175253545, 8.759587411558037, 8.325328718954234, 8.796327290945046, 6.098403496402985, 7.053936313338629, 4.560347892316793, 13.136212061737794, 5.4222938903806215, 3.335741641722499, 4.758221357385265, 15.212217539076729, 4.661883642232402 ], "mse": [ 32.97862227756348, 150.2354361973592, 79.44149634874475, 40.986391887033925, 898.8628764044284, 210.7185592434217, 96.68871445180773, 117.70971710977264, 62.302072362088666, 3264.968213039847, 1197.1870477573102, 71.23833944679238, 623.1771870291925, 1826.6134054745173, 218.37202055301066, 44.44940619074058, 1319.7721327804775, 43.516253187717744, 190.8687591040591, 262.20674001440074, 263.18032493856947, 176.67078328647162, 141.4898756410594, 81.06287801096498, 175.13686121973186, 83.30060715994016, 333.56624717091506, 166.574473736409, 27.103412786162412, 82.03180608362698, 405.14695623279295, 66.86072161499341 ], "var": [ 118.51821189316368, 539.8346154798074, 436.208204535053, 193.91415887717463, 1388.9241142135113, 704.9289630631073, 185.7576943478332, 373.60381299928764, 432.4963175659263, 629.451993863041, 342.2514645078433, 376.5744997868492, 839.960819426014, 386.0535918623967, 368.3507860600783, 269.41345816118144, 423.2812637118911, 224.58491593210786, 292.02150034133865, 252.60158723968667, 579.9826747763004, 363.6098520585474, 1024.9468633241408, 208.82855795611906, 346.9020177024347, 222.22087404478253, 946.0019949990781, 147.05420915600246, 218.43206522298846, 326.6316728371522, 1011.5258793900166, 276.8745503089694 ], "zero": [ 0.4012333465906508, 0.40984744560251407, 0.44467065284805213, 0.43322548613966777, 0.29423386941071905, 0.30394225587537294, 0.5528748307966259, 0.471085421617635, 0.5105809708318605, 0.35051279768623617, 0.4085180528296242, 0.38953701665093254, 0.36421568790616554, 0.3292763424827727, 0.3983563340429653, 0.5723653151403323, 0.4063816267347892, 0.5196319587967433, 0.5490555693094177, 0.46049051432941723, 0.45615256731004866, 0.34130993953731037, 0.3751074239701224, 0.40468485609964355, 0.43183146766139835, 0.46661061683027794, 0.34182327438955534, 0.491888696310065, 0.502392865442409, 0.4399390242087281, 0.2792308298677576, 0.5047639975845352 ] }, "crps": 7.2129987877806325, "crpss": 0.028907273417201118, "rps": 0.5601235257451246, "rpss": -0.2396186390796602, "mean_bias_mm": -1.7333450247523308, "mean_mae_mm": 10.036614232056225, "mean_rmse_mm": 19.964357567567387, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0644610848895601, "zero_fraction": 0.4251803454635733, "correlation": 0.14859106320485443, "pit_histogram": [ 0.02627, 0.0347, 0.03823, 0.0513, 0.05135, 0.07784, 0.11586, 0.18967, 0.27141, 0.14338 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.6406418500227313 } }, "distribution_full": { "ethiopia": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 0.8371443661922224, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.25430477985856814 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0696882010015976, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.18010821909652636 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean_abs_log": 11.533194959888723 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 0.7982395612573165, "area_mean_abs_log": 3.619472182761237 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 0.943011513771131, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.21783590960442484 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.282720588235294, "area_mean": 0.3426022137410319 } }, "ondj_domain": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 0.8968202265692173, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.2033931758823263 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0637238676372625, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.1554210629355367 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean_abs_log": 11.708770531553345 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 0.620440765659508, "area_mean_abs_log": 5.601866435293546 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9662800730512906, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.2201102529571434 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.3999019607843132, "area_mean": 0.42518034546357275 } } } }, "cdft": { "training": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 2.4165687234063506, 4.10112625004552, 10.65514185633196, 2.1973150231238323, 12.40029463479421, 4.726814656139908, 3.4003773441235574, 5.4587910296639786, 3.7973253056459555, 17.40121239112863, 17.09699068101662, 3.8977526544661965, 8.969462149537229, 23.33136805124323, 4.511200650041551, 2.5679268679926155, 12.405767607861002, 3.9975689108491785, 4.142700543527599, 5.052947030775088, 5.342934784439272, 4.54655036775264, 8.27613340081489, 3.040984164204945 ], "crps_clim": [ 3.069144896531585, 3.3858676721658623, 10.074246020518368, 2.773361990265274, 15.332066536235006, 3.604951743610606, 2.9367188887863067, 5.050819710999868, 3.0258348712866763, 21.012210746646392, 16.801010670653753, 3.7894449827302754, 4.194423053287697, 25.04733364035127, 3.8894382629868667, 3.276619104881488, 13.516550290161696, 3.1815721446141088, 3.8044427745910094, 3.8505600739044343, 3.8413777807512575, 3.029724174279054, 7.270640397516081, 3.55202677848655 ], "rps": [ 0.668516113066455, 0.5333277296388026, 0.4934268318013041, 0.43133622639790553, 0.45106464278619607, 0.9654669231267057, 0.5738428407344791, 0.6296387046569097, 0.5441624955596005, 0.35957793743574545, 0.4833677693706076, 0.5545299021354932, 1.1051703345084931, 0.28544175673172967, 0.6544016043504144, 0.22700492513262926, 0.42461894553947066, 0.5130431964543088, 0.46246410742898686, 0.6821353030806349, 0.7012940755769117, 0.6970352848696377, 0.5801747241188349, 0.48110907137104597 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4625629239522452, 0.36451731789334524, 0.44125991446339186, 0.36766510384083156, 0.4796288408201259, 0.5018388021804165, 0.38147740265907437, 0.45785739893807914, 0.37358783510004456, 0.5052606258044735, 0.5036552005735562, 0.4358799343390295, 0.5001476339830571, 0.5372757885017574, 0.4967176371371437, 0.4833984207814198, 0.48412488996957304, 0.42298688095193837, 0.47887418976886764, 0.4007717998366474, 0.49873748259985246, 0.40202165211061897, 0.4457035075298269, 0.452337281302436 ], "bias": [ 5.561923111723159, 4.183999266192437, -9.346585602834878, 1.8897168806475784, 6.171493606246692, 11.975075160805936, -0.8233778608877889, -0.3563578622029817, 3.708996211120961, -17.093922279168133, -16.201011038971153, 1.439410503960899, 18.936059216447838, -25.760544881317983, 10.30832963899894, 2.232692097473074, -11.102896418769262, -1.9178807944227498, -1.1776004603691215, -3.395544354644601, 11.866445855040258, 11.09291525148909, 3.791747550946658, 4.147750347308731 ], "mae": [ 6.08397480979071, 7.0099926817429985, 12.330367631377474, 3.55531780528679, 18.49646782163716, 12.003744671811365, 3.8125395429283704, 6.074345506592643, 5.7712737846212105, 20.773234916223103, 18.75769430196662, 5.620869507030198, 18.936059216447838, 26.38951686037875, 10.422266272917996, 4.125279269730322, 15.19444909750583, 4.571028833065801, 4.851396741166151, 6.153019882558383, 11.903194868252037, 11.10826162749286, 13.075369056181168, 6.177835280458421 ], "mse": [ 78.75880749764391, 183.11801723386486, 714.846375327801, 36.54030378244155, 729.4070725615973, 287.8767498756959, 53.869357149247485, 107.4591002144271, 87.22256721704322, 1571.1972419688866, 597.3105265447388, 98.17839217704854, 836.9031994003275, 1608.9167674392502, 316.5417783294888, 58.77515023230937, 952.6854346669489, 83.20232032927717, 80.15363869807324, 172.01432201233592, 410.1036778297571, 259.0015241622207, 347.96244474333736, 89.680507639555 ], "var": [ 187.5315666226636, 470.9135651157836, 383.43639507690034, 162.05558984194136, 1072.201782619246, 603.6757339644348, 234.10007330407439, 424.6056229340736, 397.7355576071553, 730.249000341934, 365.95116492127306, 366.2075995188273, 838.6142671645418, 344.37059063178276, 408.7765802135734, 314.3762504522121, 512.3009412156315, 250.03039781305824, 253.37731535559448, 195.22777779787458, 561.0470070148529, 410.4476537886985, 694.3651305937632, 228.07237872609662 ], "zero": [ 0.006981591284274986, 0.0006910837868678162, 0.0014795663467424916, 0.0006379234955702919, 0.0016642413948870839, 0.0, 0.008543852657453815, 0.007159217759565046, 0.006327973023279927, 0.0008372692321654176, 0.0028026168189919324, 0.0023577401668555763, 0.0006125639982559108, 0.00272925909268908, 0.0026620742895974224, 0.011451184379254527, 0.0015935151657889145, 0.003579533685855846, 0.00567694791136431, 0.00469469009715651, 0.0008642713022329465, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 7.238968961621914, "crpss": -0.026134650954961147, "rps": 0.5625896435780543, "rpss": -0.2412018204213382, "mean_bias_mm": 0.42211804770056666, "mean_mae_mm": 10.54989583279851, "mean_rmse_mm": 20.16776024276671, "spread_error_ratio": 1.032654850281546, "zero_fraction": 0.003056129828702077, "correlation": 0.044243804522172844, "pit_histogram": [ 0.25152, 0.02865, 0.03664, 0.04243, 0.04989, 0.07521, 0.10023, 0.15624, 0.15552, 0.10367 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.5343477080014418 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 2.308501351706883, 5.376565617715157, 3.9351470001154407, 2.034990131743829, 14.66511374439787, 6.098768373075401, 3.843484549810971, 4.709768866995353, 3.667214006387694, 24.944477205747056, 26.31382623623739, 3.9099035669335436, 9.657542947012889, 23.933319624294437, 5.874867559024139, 2.1050577551502165, 13.42768119782358, 2.6622278979106957, 7.483302506473037, 5.629011400793618, 4.413825563398389, 5.56287184715762, 6.7007620861772, 3.4738724585313214 ], "crps_clim": [ 3.134642569756797, 4.0368873592733205, 3.423335292543674, 3.3738802296500032, 27.106814106125587, 3.7253738930894196, 3.249450552047323, 4.035569151257637, 2.965809999169824, 30.070724508266622, 25.830159399346183, 3.580613889817456, 4.549159240055732, 25.77593644509466, 4.188541565312743, 3.9517287715065783, 14.718801138616833, 2.963090816144978, 5.6582471562161265, 4.848776670389135, 3.9672709222205658, 3.261152428150299, 5.930891894544658, 4.158239602390194 ], "rps": [ 0.8585876647367975, 0.6262706754220659, 0.5174195662833372, 0.4472501453976147, 0.018169125085509195, 1.2311563078900454, 0.5930994324889378, 0.6500170578939246, 0.7474210957314772, 0.3843960275593073, 0.5245354263459155, 0.5513171517182675, 1.220305976021823, 0.20340976499939054, 0.9643785931834603, 0.13247506589116304, 0.4072864877659009, 0.2810258086304573, 0.7511161460000411, 0.5864253063963446, 0.43648124154886336, 1.0608405262589713, 0.6332896284954105, 0.49340648274255255 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4612583063145251, 0.36325581037926996, 0.3548837655357383, 0.3845191261452081, 0.5442138131835412, 0.47392048479376536, 0.3369486554725916, 0.41421918051654527, 0.37845219279141734, 0.4951720255695432, 0.5339101560355515, 0.4478677807232184, 0.5122698437472656, 0.5463196106078548, 0.5151171353423272, 0.5367285502205256, 0.4864254375606979, 0.45042529314649876, 0.45228609712142287, 0.40382417088714717, 0.4727414090541605, 0.43354624566717376, 0.435070354227705, 0.43462262504974214 ], "bias": [ 5.130276052261106, 6.07376677079984, 1.497683219740423, 4.784363264090373, -3.22297737723848, 15.17559894265623, -2.0697890092805844, -0.5181774751494032, 3.720875411138606, -26.347972998100474, -28.092713913993542, 3.3486671716938026, 20.963257100112823, -26.32439699078429, 12.702655788505055, 4.898314368178652, -13.1963435976485, 0.6882713773600381, -5.689787019322636, -4.08432137723647, 11.60293923850165, 12.454486449748089, 12.374972121657011, 2.8251202757112956 ], "mae": [ 5.234954318073198, 9.626507996979054, 4.486618953618392, 5.135415791045686, 20.311313521428463, 15.17559894265623, 4.1390826902647815, 5.261355860849675, 5.187714080404663, 30.75616574895544, 28.19223355217906, 5.673081411416167, 20.963257100112823, 26.72639217073894, 12.817991657489339, 5.059097919553744, 17.850635994446343, 4.134554372473822, 7.5966288561979916, 6.096355218579565, 11.619736086708738, 12.454486449748089, 13.431261795209448, 6.351348297530369 ], "mse": [ 56.73304331441611, 270.08215299056127, 86.9602904158432, 57.50423117907731, 908.4164224222225, 382.59135225417316, 81.35992915837659, 88.08092939061224, 84.6349980608134, 2791.7298539245285, 1024.1942087077891, 84.01348065575512, 916.5643149096494, 1557.2834507459975, 377.7600254810946, 74.8257704182204, 1087.937405747381, 41.331313311268, 157.92646157468803, 221.9544980422058, 392.1532662296336, 314.7464961868627, 312.2027616068309, 91.56240270076488 ], "var": [ 132.6458743132069, 659.6767348497623, 552.3529075853669, 215.83675949641525, 1619.7599978149458, 819.8566497098404, 224.58559357526457, 417.741729552985, 498.9425089294129, 765.8103156838372, 411.92040396161804, 436.9837304620634, 950.2537939209561, 478.70414753839134, 453.2161082532231, 346.42622107575215, 485.6760045050442, 263.39477263808965, 354.7181305356891, 288.1252440219587, 711.9333469000125, 408.42718011245756, 1171.5251924538727, 233.0899836624496 ], "zero": [ 0.007674493484540283, 0.0, 0.002158169114673338, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012731034864612741, 0.011569215654847132, 0.007182942011684438, 0.0, 0.007186565002706714, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019002142705767215, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006064727208335104, 0.0027839927757758896, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 8.030504312275573, "crpss": 0.02908234688248068, "rps": 0.5966700293536491, "rpss": -0.3176373985466179, "mean_bias_mm": 0.3622819913916923, "mean_mae_mm": 11.845074532777502, "mean_rmse_mm": 21.854203504349726, "spread_error_ratio": 1.060916585380176, "zero_fraction": 0.0031813867842892854, "correlation": 0.13346227535364677, "pit_histogram": [ 0.2623, 0.02659, 0.03083, 0.03245, 0.03754, 0.06791, 0.09538, 0.16796, 0.18679, 0.09225 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.6340959893789871 } }, "operational": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 3.148362628157462, 3.1096127698256493, 10.187482997538797, 4.095863758946862, 4.167614045381502, 5.3016284066105, 8.395963276277337, 2.091072835985297 ], "crps_clim": [ 3.840649245962226, 2.9635126140043284, 11.660524877797739, 2.9183695971477044, 3.477601142846446, 4.259321637104846, 3.1351156438044105, 3.1728418151724775 ], "rps": [ 0.5085953332322924, 0.4559898116589134, 0.32482077326954967, 0.4897831296734587, 0.44677617266777764, 0.5393632735672264, 1.112579647686168, 0.26055326920481797 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.524230481898705, 0.4593885401867237, 0.5017173979879027, 0.4051068206667376, 0.4317667103339062, 0.4153152702181896, 0.47288784486408364, 0.4886335324867942 ], "bias": [ 8.055698067601295, 1.2776344145872904, -5.141761370560507, -2.4590122893853508, -0.5737823244689644, -2.4551166508806643, 14.873953097774825, 5.022696872108846 ], "mae": [ 8.121057361210324, 4.831441495651802, 12.190814560073708, 4.698296772034286, 6.019380425628144, 7.091943897042314, 15.945474872398641, 5.317633466630221 ], "mse": [ 192.98876994208996, 58.81346335447813, 406.9975136439444, 117.53219592714031, 152.73214316375143, 177.98224056350313, 521.0034376986198, 73.66637646205244 ], "var": [ 325.5685323012067, 266.72875482069327, 682.5593949008356, 146.17162720378658, 222.26093501271052, 302.5934536280204, 796.7564988707188, 342.21664482924325 ], "zero": [ 0.006744518557682731, 0.005185336092909292, 0.0014348222468932555, 0.0051092565465282475, 0.006120973695520692, 0.0044636495929648206, 0.0018011132329415216, 0.008508530981258488 ] }, "crps": 5.0622000898404265, "crpss": -0.14309792314087666, "rps": 0.5173076763700255, "rpss": -0.11879136977575677, "mean_bias_mm": 2.325038727097096, "mean_mae_mm": 8.02700535633368, "mean_rmse_mm": 14.584735773898938, "spread_error_ratio": 1.3463993020411131, "zero_fraction": 0.004921025118337381, "correlation": 0.21563685601386107, "pit_histogram": [ 0.15989, 0.02502, 0.03565, 0.04903, 0.06754, 0.09593, 0.14026, 0.18006, 0.15849, 0.08812 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.4774032200418881 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 3.1548667876017498, 3.8496003665270244, 11.638413976680155, 4.206827020553847, 2.1782332637721744, 3.2973622725355445, 11.873898748159094, 2.290565874008913 ], "crps_clim": [ 4.156168553465009, 3.538722242103148, 14.589550778766494, 3.336016465541637, 3.2225107652008003, 2.991934313605765, 3.4730598185838906, 3.692380181189609 ], "rps": [ 0.30657291774527085, 0.5581562179211867, 0.15545617497801822, 0.41272969597780235, 0.2901074947941233, 0.43403623157746807, 1.2515094976296852, 0.295737755497679 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5378222677027902, 0.46540376292499014, 0.544167761935176, 0.42259006334453925, 0.4687251767879638, 0.37920455847261086, 0.47625759961208325, 0.48392303022441024 ], "bias": [ 9.132634874785216, -0.7725324008699123, -3.5774445826501737, -1.8974634731684312, 4.335102591228062, 2.45067327250205, 21.972115895282304, 6.453182596240999 ], "mae": [ 9.132634874785216, 4.746837229902097, 12.925399691771865, 5.114459631052938, 4.9796332016159335, 6.150003991221498, 21.972115895282304, 6.453182596240999 ], "mse": [ 233.3984297293102, 74.34384308912294, 342.198551520823, 142.8062690119638, 47.385749671931706, 89.80714752781064, 795.514789090409, 102.12782547237352 ], "var": [ 419.16795368073707, 244.567703971961, 1077.7980215723521, 173.4615840470738, 242.06635661330748, 378.07153998329494, 1124.9655719848301, 349.590670311579 ], "zero": [ 0.004104308220349774, 0.0030440947584361817, 0.0, 0.004035894470581289, 0.0043767410714882545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008888342874352844 ] }, "crps": 5.311221038729813, "crpss": -0.08947165364119147, "rps": 0.4630382482651542, "rpss": 0.019530543858091054, "mean_bias_mm": 4.762033596668765, "mean_mae_mm": 8.934283388984106, "mean_rmse_mm": 15.114490584840036, "spread_error_ratio": 1.4812107606667162, "zero_fraction": 0.003056172674401043, "correlation": 0.34260147668475444, "pit_histogram": [ 0.16541, 0.02754, 0.03792, 0.06716, 0.07066, 0.09193, 0.12821, 0.19927, 0.17613, 0.03577 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.5380364172892181 } }, "full": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 2.3071750306903263, 4.014068162590306, 10.6996746780565, 2.159923767548509, 12.048948357050017, 4.559170675080804, 3.359323395553312, 5.569854544942278, 3.597888189987449, 18.175119599125054, 17.462928396798628, 3.701442434493576, 8.859868571260673, 23.534074231468608, 4.412340670858792, 2.3194280685191218, 12.705924661368543, 3.9282529521434277, 4.079391399848713, 4.8705012574501, 5.320553376217784, 4.309369267075501, 7.582600845401457, 3.078423419081216, 3.2507367336748563, 2.945043623085782, 10.018689500953018, 4.0357405517595, 3.9517245802457226, 5.196873110933188, 8.254877809946569, 1.9690932932262302 ], "crps_clim": [ 2.8572571807760165, 3.1865323464856155, 10.383599749568983, 2.5619649424777258, 15.714771517105724, 3.3680154534657665, 2.765672743937594, 5.300295600051972, 2.8388059419872405, 21.851414927820926, 17.1664341858879, 3.7370645400554223, 3.942032189422852, 25.551792834412236, 3.6290536020800803, 2.8900168246080717, 14.071028267301827, 3.0762760995886107, 3.6632019409978067, 3.7186259353467004, 3.564689968626687, 2.839593289203478, 7.19932849431782, 3.43605995135926, 3.8609579743608737, 2.8299285708739577, 12.23962820019987, 2.794216883727665, 3.293480646075853, 4.260034824273769, 3.0060012627324424, 3.1366202401449357 ], "rps": [ 0.6363368510270186, 0.5672919053103131, 0.4845965896125877, 0.4525713965102919, 0.4088852545004632, 0.9469154312830441, 0.602028031232906, 0.6375337245357443, 0.5730714109899709, 0.3242241931146828, 0.45638152751059574, 0.5421029676377238, 1.1190221959485092, 0.2593829795021576, 0.6830337053474332, 0.24699050117219742, 0.41358169354357377, 0.5829400167607618, 0.49419455818197744, 0.6725401498942403, 0.7267021001828775, 0.6370761284428395, 0.5112750097237079, 0.5072169631558322, 0.5248497541187027, 0.45350327584556305, 0.29079423805940957, 0.5456655585424163, 0.4539477677357526, 0.5381489323513537, 1.116537385713963, 0.27013128186789037 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.42597328472277496, 0.3506474587875527, 0.4500587082647611, 0.32853144302379395, 0.4793056617036147, 0.4798374907327482, 0.3541533787330895, 0.4731556449679077, 0.3927115296130284, 0.5155155067499355, 0.5115992154696631, 0.4372196861501219, 0.5134082784354855, 0.5544160313927202, 0.4916821403090456, 0.46169725845021364, 0.48685690274881205, 0.4101509392762119, 0.472007224293684, 0.4017865592049955, 0.4940497459609742, 0.37193747436870483, 0.4453370890748853, 0.4489261212476537, 0.5165803609034532, 0.4475995691106898, 0.5228420289369178, 0.41806933442655636, 0.4281627076345683, 0.41613299701643813, 0.4679489278571733, 0.4937218068532966 ], "bias": [ 5.116205762686058, 3.8552961408919106, -9.67492913220058, 1.6646130085670867, 4.581727186750639, 11.043446918855997, -1.0631113985880924, -0.9001597420197848, 3.381460972361036, -17.674157364827064, -16.386859661746108, 1.0614571690874142, 17.789375939278077, -26.075393607640603, 9.732379189875864, 1.8271613539448883, -11.630901601837815, -2.2469164632410146, -1.4237736224859836, -3.7830290827448625, 11.211489598704052, 10.223408109050217, 2.6040609234401852, 3.7131936149723597, 7.795269744999374, 0.9039780484470408, -6.275629939457866, -2.844054668783594, -1.0549625900722015, -2.955561149906594, 14.60723659970868, 4.581043195046733 ], "mae": [ 5.603038956293394, 6.710461755862376, 12.280286610106431, 3.4366734055260624, 17.420984475141648, 11.07983617331764, 3.782388690580239, 6.526402407424074, 5.332180360272309, 21.683231888885754, 19.373993788470557, 5.226753808099025, 17.789375939278077, 26.543817226852152, 9.84285587781584, 3.502304467445699, 15.425501035135273, 4.585581760144858, 4.803979367016788, 5.930192998629578, 11.243568885102302, 10.232072239489327, 11.672105914245867, 5.931268351747897, 7.839542245609479, 4.450843204498813, 11.907483472516777, 4.630146931498829, 5.510964311491572, 6.753965079709255, 15.346417719422798, 4.79208523347967 ], "mse": [ 72.16289836578639, 162.4676705040743, 710.1530889976226, 34.251500797715195, 664.6681903640102, 250.1087506477372, 56.914026668588264, 126.05009381551348, 77.9645700099137, 1676.2326040389034, 626.0904395824484, 84.8280284973015, 783.8058784917224, 1612.6607693174526, 303.6889133673311, 44.56760837300618, 1003.08347305235, 80.23117973240862, 81.6058347845385, 164.08810357882493, 388.4266989569562, 231.6991313767612, 282.13983338954205, 88.49958084493599, 188.23644384988893, 53.62465505515956, 380.30231987307644, 118.55981626455205, 141.23136146274135, 169.24092125040107, 479.4198296603202, 62.24671096772465 ], "var": [ 163.45434259911008, 407.8836408952763, 321.2845639312607, 144.5862925502396, 857.6487016128194, 492.0837646172186, 205.0879728530297, 356.65515896688885, 345.2338384889948, 622.1520699823363, 310.6820070483055, 321.97910044885344, 686.7605706063213, 289.39908429191786, 355.5690351250448, 266.0093410651594, 426.5619595763014, 216.3977993792879, 215.81621017817224, 162.9142121784957, 463.36156729154305, 340.00145521237715, 549.695166243747, 195.4560528556133, 272.5602190998446, 235.2796909291675, 571.4578393592095, 125.79326555593282, 190.42906360174956, 265.55418425221836, 714.4579049430537, 289.2712677961253 ], "zero": [ 0.006365117137951298, 0.0006910837868678162, 0.0017780270877941126, 0.0006379234955702919, 0.0013131461306518653, 0.0, 0.00762479729131616, 0.006052569053449817, 0.005221854836536997, 0.0, 0.0026665016039157568, 0.0020072195636724535, 0.00047939791167853876, 0.001650808106610085, 0.0025555677028900386, 0.00938988297751608, 0.0014044664986375415, 0.0026088346445790568, 0.00494510453573959, 0.0053492756640431665, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005337149869034904, 0.0041513280780713585, 0.0012502036570429967, 0.004138051822900732, 0.004936496734440654, 0.00318395039652429, 0.0016445245503637703, 0.007885101395544476 ] }, "crps": 6.633719536138612, "crpss": -0.03685080832995524, "rps": 0.5524835462298907, "rpss": -0.22247586542659614, "mean_bias_mm": 0.3657301078473574, "mean_mae_mm": 9.599697018159699, "mean_rmse_mm": 18.707661303209534, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0081028241741368, "zero_fraction": 0.0029771370166669954, "correlation": 0.07608702894564105, "pit_histogram": [ 0.23924, 0.0291, 0.03488, 0.04235, 0.05158, 0.07243, 0.10202, 0.15068, 0.17223, 0.10549 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.5393176876749142 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 2.111575297859349, 5.163382730148616, 3.724296694535999, 1.9055964884771883, 14.428955499795123, 5.433540660131974, 3.90946225846051, 4.670333709945463, 3.5699416493152616, 25.945643030693645, 26.78292647152807, 3.7712012084669215, 8.97062445069795, 24.8414390936063, 5.318780666102269, 1.9560804878074647, 13.96930059571912, 2.577795855879073, 7.51618199449326, 5.747454517899357, 4.02127931802939, 5.030489839745984, 5.976930275703872, 3.582105888860959, 3.0646927753081377, 3.852246285879301, 11.745435990030895, 4.3014633474801105, 1.9919577331749831, 3.112947457105443, 11.634835025462694, 2.201444217086951 ], "crps_clim": [ 2.8175577367545985, 3.9021745191382493, 3.3034198610233836, 3.0658976041547716, 27.95661134379484, 3.362418886433096, 3.1100028100913844, 4.094088898027647, 2.797475683019447, 31.07358038415444, 26.285415911798307, 3.5258493082035396, 4.105091866216406, 26.621986127319055, 3.742042717578652, 3.517340209583741, 15.411353025851831, 2.673910822235419, 5.68084916383337, 4.795224659874851, 3.5512909190087862, 2.905159579919633, 5.944050077935008, 4.117186323773333, 4.037389747963682, 3.4488650528891722, 15.716463704166275, 3.2680339255822792, 3.0328683611021146, 2.8141009404740527, 3.4247012737105678, 3.5844382254089533 ], "rps": [ 0.8390396929916079, 0.6149437427432535, 0.54718782375415, 0.448724849529696, 0.0130077942149527, 1.1224384598525132, 0.6227389042011511, 0.678920098923417, 0.8170453935266772, 0.3253473183078249, 0.4865869905206057, 0.5505770921982527, 1.20027088810672, 0.19198444083755672, 0.9733083170159905, 0.17114610049285656, 0.4149604741228198, 0.381757125667614, 0.8042055313822257, 0.6317254709917652, 0.4440430072303021, 0.9464587485400725, 0.5788404746224955, 0.5275089415995677, 0.3258787870492414, 0.5846872798322916, 0.10463732021890455, 0.47781363846823394, 0.292626171185145, 0.4066129591028924, 1.2232710833686375, 0.3258762946059467 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4298711247134212, 0.33951771473196274, 0.3580324977963315, 0.3440075796304816, 0.5614000118944327, 0.42739667374627904, 0.31854005006647745, 0.4274262614020923, 0.4024604048415598, 0.5070497366915091, 0.5496038326833845, 0.44190671299078577, 0.5231727861116291, 0.5620037572257898, 0.5267904535413438, 0.5284018227909777, 0.48322502696648467, 0.40592076688279005, 0.44404886379291797, 0.4240421871939146, 0.4646575370925135, 0.37305364252256173, 0.4173925133581936, 0.4446715007416715, 0.5288605928241447, 0.4618809475548823, 0.5613869457241275, 0.4470539791818982, 0.45697580457229925, 0.3508328348614358, 0.47125617734541536, 0.4764068519243777 ], "bias": [ 4.375998692331248, 4.854420109128979, 0.5514516229352829, 3.968991629947795, -6.259944861364785, 13.35056526601031, -2.7190897645274634, -1.4721703399606199, 2.8135219888006464, -27.696819140729094, -28.908761956749704, 2.3780605011168547, 18.96765553464045, -27.395198951252965, 11.34244272946311, 4.054083318575743, -14.269881270831142, 0.02980026583443179, -6.374999539386108, -4.927589529132222, 10.254243823086664, 11.118133183588828, 10.116776624142853, 1.9824222901927915, 8.445884392317183, -1.4829797116158383, -5.860498378558049, -2.5875253132480203, 3.5926470316392107, 1.5918092461009912, 21.16725262921571, 5.742440801808509 ], "mae": [ 4.575365387877047, 8.767474950691321, 4.076079162027724, 4.5326764520938, 19.106511873436496, 13.35056526601031, 4.259470089363258, 5.296940990272499, 4.765919391417137, 31.567684575452187, 28.960575266339912, 5.325917492374945, 18.96765553464045, 27.7100511918661, 11.43968619681982, 4.2261800686666415, 18.235580140340037, 3.88607269832, 7.9136088310665285, 6.247487572529016, 10.290821692290335, 11.118133183588828, 11.403677504264486, 6.2138304098558645, 8.445884392317183, 4.670687904408051, 13.008289075868671, 5.216878245224445, 4.289996799282381, 5.58379366739999, 21.16725262921571, 5.742440801808509 ], "mse": [ 46.108067871813425, 227.18292180359157, 81.49491085529576, 47.35327726280937, 848.8448518643121, 300.6950343697504, 88.08010638739097, 93.66910393236577, 72.6545436638016, 2944.751553729776, 1067.2249949624502, 77.03354516871457, 788.3466181851401, 1631.5915552323706, 313.2008771204193, 58.050651998100975, 1161.4440466322185, 40.96887652318547, 168.1994497345311, 231.29521708218203, 325.46828546990037, 263.02242068169005, 229.3530274656044, 86.93884856480722, 212.6359159503454, 77.26561739238839, 337.60063307597113, 152.20163401608497, 38.37268021771572, 85.14784811937963, 730.3816068984883, 85.56717961958336 ], "var": [ 108.82814129345998, 531.6398075044694, 449.434430887862, 174.7126168855291, 1271.837822916987, 662.8932692251072, 180.2387162578975, 338.33473703253054, 411.3890363945648, 633.1192052584647, 324.1379896826146, 364.14155966811126, 768.6036385284096, 380.2585321861316, 365.4451625961715, 278.00816107240837, 396.4945310968972, 221.4657622422252, 291.10041775087933, 233.8323052091424, 570.6441788610721, 332.90880018776267, 916.3823776185543, 198.05359063421935, 350.72572646895173, 208.68145295262488, 890.2725794327293, 145.14234173801046, 198.27003236696598, 324.5400906928138, 1018.0921502912535, 285.8923446478129 ], "zero": [ 0.007953734738398508, 0.0, 0.002923492259024904, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012313069479497039, 0.011082397950561675, 0.007043769134550711, 0.0, 0.006837533756489406, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014541613610878468, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0063341840312870915, 0.00584355290874623, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0017787574939805992, 0.001847171243749084, 0.0, 0.0017787574939805992, 0.002290178036409953, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008444018038839964 ] }, "crps": 7.275948172357239, "crpss": 0.02043233930120425, "rps": 0.5648178504751682, "rpss": -0.25000772678225847, "mean_bias_mm": 0.33572321636004965, "mean_mae_mm": 10.636349669910302, "mean_rmse_mm": 20.087422916663066, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0347645665070386, "zero_fraction": 0.0028441321930123198, "correlation": 0.15722071954158037, "pit_histogram": [ 0.23545, 0.02513, 0.03287, 0.03769, 0.04348, 0.06244, 0.09791, 0.175, 0.19641, 0.09362 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.6137372206179424 } }, "distribution_full": { "ethiopia": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0352236737563858, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.07034827858142835 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 1.1334093648845125, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.20722038418347186 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.6063280813720756, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.6131826379683534 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 1.1014867308125638, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.1638085851266213 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.146603024313938, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.21731026762673597 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": -0.0026155486186236125 } }, "ondj_domain": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0266119003197431, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.07512334877637071 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0616534182308535, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.16518662394431397 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.484207827072788, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.8080968395527669 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 1.11972851847417, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.21812474022991973 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.1382924398063181, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.2479391499877654 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": 0.002844132193012319 } } } } } }, "Jan": { "tag": "init09_Jan", "cells": 1484, "methods": { "raw": { "training": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 2.449791301817709, 2.2339340840832334, 20.363500064196216, 11.754832317904416, 30.540837123790183, 8.058015500775854, 3.9338341149347293, 3.9131828670034223, 14.110877354141293, 8.031892835923523, 23.256519363696746, 8.892457986581205, 3.4738028441199846, 9.821460619016486, 9.538310577032826, 14.989762384324125, 9.46882284221344, 4.128803758593155, 3.244647692821245, 7.609133371064126, 3.66405368858049, 2.97547269284405, 4.647717209383401, 2.8027858264954735 ], "crps_clim": [ 3.147316707451114, 3.345505329459557, 10.984966213801052, 5.565431468435425, 27.0718763908127, 3.331872595873229, 3.2339333066026654, 2.898578484108726, 7.306127788484703, 3.578837768945852, 13.61369806885984, 4.185041134572365, 2.552105347257009, 4.271290701634523, 4.644138020744405, 8.101898044577364, 4.707631815249459, 2.7497107572454813, 3.224323436142348, 3.3810268425956997, 2.5984657102999638, 2.914534006884459, 3.0779701844454106, 3.298398263301115 ], "rps": [ 0.23486247401926275, 0.14902471747169063, 1.2550857381777887, 0.9073915647905313, 0.8510021094023662, 0.8293858584300019, 0.2550178687867501, 0.35503513230589334, 1.1990578186169722, 0.8254085757010072, 1.3309719628238468, 0.8878118768735249, 0.5188719145521903, 0.8573772813002842, 0.9118638690406076, 1.0378139366690031, 0.7855576412453845, 0.5945199287146978, 0.20209642320115254, 0.8449089173318344, 0.3759586418297238, 0.32640874242358847, 0.6139793641543244, 0.33378088351691104 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.49730130537920497, 0.5299108646278966, 0.4968209717644765, 0.45140321931037847, 0.5120439289026995, 0.41031169775019555, 0.4779713217459693, 0.4530884207483443, 0.5043277856041234, 0.41692670592375, 0.5103230613419248, 0.4397744822519408, 0.3965890908147674, 0.3999865051869261, 0.4105095348843729, 0.49534705826094655, 0.4525412470698913, 0.40263417109494526, 0.4947135592926832, 0.4107579460380184, 0.4281083679843292, 0.43735476661089284, 0.37946484897479493, 0.465353650018479 ], "bias": [ -0.14200299036367497, 0.15082242668374035, -21.771457707641012, -12.567365552949166, -33.3023960711529, -8.904463050706646, -4.074834199947043, -2.378093201487434, -15.53115935018896, -8.78542407304863, -24.7017567039192, -9.666813039458178, -1.635297472027753, -10.355773937245457, -10.501303323286182, -16.474902257528225, -9.489191343559492, -4.1089706475833125, -2.9117464177530246, -8.297211053428224, -3.520373183973408, -2.6872538093013985, -3.74261507943944, -0.6772545049949311 ], "mae": [ 3.0629585282473033, 2.7833651857557378, 21.89768528156337, 12.93940466565762, 34.14422641781939, 9.084202350958048, 4.298677779419878, 4.381826305497662, 15.886239411739833, 9.33769819740399, 24.992829537271383, 10.299103029915726, 4.239605951530486, 10.83940897355064, 10.625941376673104, 16.97090477850057, 10.709774771398095, 4.606654626464256, 3.3489444216916557, 8.72285992345067, 4.064101815974502, 3.420323835607489, 5.518100372130779, 2.960781004361755 ], "mse": [ 23.515505317628325, 17.295562327799978, 1514.454898150042, 503.38132788491606, 2821.0784763621473, 195.2304926698257, 61.61522773140008, 63.517314953726896, 621.7433296544491, 257.28425339487774, 1498.8066345942402, 297.44021634687016, 46.52456578044139, 459.43180180505794, 383.19986606404933, 713.0325280323102, 431.8667939781295, 52.69143230781893, 36.34022758332408, 223.0380470619418, 46.6426965947646, 26.410513257087217, 99.27184224932181, 24.734414336366644 ], "var": [ 68.30629569577445, 98.66512092026814, 49.75162583279451, 31.912823222254783, 163.30138769195986, 24.31919353169753, 16.290478149379883, 94.01523082969717, 94.39506573637424, 54.77410391241872, 55.63050724920168, 68.8827542909246, 119.22704071510006, 84.23729900508185, 24.801378801374984, 95.34526728752506, 82.30654522251952, 40.14295510083719, 38.81180649526798, 44.499941268475375, 35.32111048835276, 30.974719181571746, 90.90531424497455, 115.74508422252498 ], "zero": [ 0.16918913834137117, 0.17777384535277596, 0.21900108249857667, 0.23225687816193358, 0.11896016516699413, 0.15254815233021166, 0.257625531747366, 0.1601812873030095, 0.21276443456617108, 0.15286960520787615, 0.2096609003652644, 0.16661114485523001, 0.1412231947839681, 0.15834569111241714, 0.21453141705889217, 0.14677166122130317, 0.16171679709174216, 0.17716075006528995, 0.3269505449020353, 0.20565984549693472, 0.2775481557429885, 0.266952239043055, 0.17162776430802407, 0.20816047167518453 ] }, "crps": 8.912685350889056, "crpss": -0.5988710441215097, "rps": 0.6867997183908058, "rpss": -0.5158960269028896, "mean_bias_mm": -9.003201522679165, "mean_mae_mm": 9.963984105940998, "mean_rmse_mm": 20.83521455016976, "spread_error_ratio": 0.3946364474675911, "zero_fraction": 0.19525377909994232, "correlation": 0.18341951569112175, "pit_histogram": [ 0.00415, 0.00722, 0.01005, 0.01607, 0.02874, 0.04712, 0.07788, 0.13053, 0.24204, 0.4362 ], "pit_reliability_index": 1.01752402360151 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 1.6597180542749763, 1.8389241258065228, 11.540284703426945, 3.8525423559795833, 35.69385589782556, 3.929350902372133, 3.164464957728669, 4.959707702137941, 11.555171286565763, 5.226783408771815, 24.5626966242088, 8.604970057379905, 2.6562787649685715, 6.979301337713999, 5.3240566202476804, 12.433705192343929, 12.12873011857886, 2.430336133432422, 2.11168440513758, 7.579953459106151, 2.1471405701853, 2.097779991234635, 2.691267633249599, 3.0947561780488306 ], "crps_clim": [ 2.4548094454165224, 2.4172161936748946, 5.333194544027777, 1.8549628212328, 34.12225179677904, 1.8644358450759109, 2.122993377234286, 2.4401382645813325, 5.73783658336709, 2.3217318677782153, 15.529706680297545, 3.9621897190875477, 1.8639890286330005, 3.876280862498442, 2.06925731997254, 7.631461938517677, 6.263162085572975, 2.1837307589862482, 2.5462616594235836, 3.4498462746206284, 2.1833797898673692, 2.4890121894953605, 2.173582577005678, 2.0020724813943143 ], "rps": [ 0.10915743428495268, 0.10103347185542623, 1.1350970499993291, 0.4289781634052706, 0.9454751901776506, 0.4038808759716319, 0.43684595585066, 0.49123759218022944, 1.3492874822158851, 0.9114849680069979, 1.6095102305283522, 1.173735793509574, 0.6073576525926297, 0.6054518825521934, 0.8640601518664093, 1.2112703143671784, 0.8710822011808341, 0.46330731032991673, 0.10223163244870065, 1.1797415643841944, 0.16625926849076433, 0.30613892088565725, 0.7478216354713451, 0.5590389091152476 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5271012391842729, 0.5237026472803199, 0.4726651024187634, 0.4183814425674277, 0.5463137996219282, 0.3948310596898503, 0.4065592098294793, 0.42831468140896223, 0.49352864345894915, 0.3706979572196848, 0.5445864342119232, 0.4920445653961977, 0.3565574386141641, 0.3975457684832652, 0.35150037945920126, 0.5287991707856597, 0.48528999945591406, 0.42598320924629246, 0.518005444784471, 0.4652291028680146, 0.5021412621347012, 0.4343952625071855, 0.40487741585469383, 0.3925124516437722 ], "bias": [ -0.8190806626273173, 0.0705744322963729, -12.298194626826788, -3.9785485087501478, -38.982864778441154, -4.158213343510131, -3.323674742382728, -5.048818899615742, -11.867586492365811, -5.872194047879404, -25.675669177650043, -9.673020274373743, -1.9311322900802879, -6.816144075921313, -5.832856045369979, -14.176329721525686, -13.029577932668877, -2.2234490831023934, -1.5809820381919613, -8.428541685760523, -1.628282282664534, -1.4681955152091024, -0.7096783891274888, -1.689075473996936 ], "mae": [ 1.9252498925356547, 2.164886806510272, 12.355926163897136, 4.089874222375981, 39.28871304787877, 4.556948920007863, 3.385805774620691, 5.380497913051047, 12.348822960885165, 6.1618138919275305, 25.68441564676469, 9.76722435431688, 2.8303708442930624, 7.547181242252854, 5.851004429228249, 14.434767007103751, 13.16213541464146, 2.4879118168747953, 1.9422589859359847, 8.444754573229714, 2.1445170748402336, 2.1773763868020324, 3.2420538565216086, 2.748316039673385 ], "mse": [ 7.597704445959716, 10.37715964183099, 715.1651683737738, 58.27859634361754, 3687.226912566003, 73.60966640290563, 27.564362309091344, 111.393325775343, 523.2362799595114, 116.2503410289536, 1508.697800494633, 306.10789626893984, 19.116096947552403, 414.9795728213307, 128.18029282942217, 565.0615287048844, 723.2136313126223, 15.001060096840396, 7.8869997668065075, 189.68952763490688, 12.590066572083423, 9.767896976045643, 27.23473493966988, 32.52887839999158 ], "var": [ 25.806480862856247, 95.81017289645698, 28.58648251099763, 16.594756226253253, 167.69225487158667, 24.47902754108785, 7.028000723995133, 51.67374355952373, 104.26360232419042, 37.09870460703707, 20.37506635903755, 33.87196724818128, 58.41496774420815, 79.4585065776972, 6.34120578689764, 109.22872353117596, 35.3379425202405, 23.05964063595815, 29.483535448219957, 40.28648621725632, 25.9620825162982, 31.043968304309338, 108.48220234097093, 126.20450648807167 ], "zero": [ 0.2723914809397513, 0.27022250466222336, 0.38698089542812325, 0.42625871986616215, 0.18407227356891673, 0.24205092385584348, 0.47081023296892904, 0.265763575506043, 0.3983052580236054, 0.26190129932457795, 0.3688884021751464, 0.27888581028310033, 0.2515041213412062, 0.21639285671609843, 0.37474061505324163, 0.23129402256849738, 0.2522596985906883, 0.29666789920955555, 0.5418533371560738, 0.3110924675130208, 0.45803961646312935, 0.4347654651307952, 0.23436078535726715, 0.34711201430196387 ] }, "crps": 7.427644186696924, "crpss": -0.49935408013529914, "rps": 0.6991452354862929, "rpss": -0.5420105172919456, "mean_bias_mm": -7.547563985656072, "mean_mae_mm": 8.088451136090367, "mean_rmse_mm": 19.67523348083905, "spread_error_ratio": 0.37212903969623484, "zero_fraction": 0.3240255948334983, "correlation": 0.3235467550496829, "pit_histogram": [ 0.00049, 0.00181, 0.00406, 0.00634, 0.01487, 0.03304, 0.06331, 0.12944, 0.28119, 0.46544 ], "pit_reliability_index": 1.1521422102611698 } }, "operational": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 2.8134590619214777, 2.3966776548348094, 10.146524457046384, 4.403149217713809, 15.63692560275053, 5.273604448904835, 6.904346374183138, 2.911765481418664 ], "crps_clim": [ 3.000358402837215, 3.2118104787747215, 4.432332626338175, 2.616293468105364, 7.502465706182092, 2.7696475536717284, 4.029967303787228, 2.9260298617309384 ], "rps": [ 0.12822478978842136, 0.227722993735155, 0.9594649954936925, 0.4044024437900339, 1.1882142366206978, 0.7423421299929047, 0.659153419535256, 0.2120609757353802 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5137613090872692, 0.49705239615939123, 0.40610073525670304, 0.44669601338418186, 0.4481977724282379, 0.39955792469123536, 0.39062127201913327, 0.49615040098932883 ], "bias": [ -2.7145312661833905, -0.19783305253563563, -11.043059345931987, -4.415684580967774, -16.881872210230668, -5.216660971302642, -5.931184642422095, -2.573500842660987 ], "mae": [ 3.041287560799866, 2.6439711519084996, 11.364618411426555, 4.732144017921023, 16.98215816317052, 5.625012070385867, 8.628774756643976, 3.0966940323563317 ], "mse": [ 19.447104770651574, 15.173914876033527, 456.6744425989827, 81.35964389639057, 782.3884008922588, 96.56860024536037, 254.11910594438226, 23.99018418363668 ], "var": [ 24.554895890910224, 118.40269270392548, 45.34854045720815, 30.815421670227444, 47.542239350213265, 46.262128261650595, 172.2237205342999, 31.406247368916045 ], "zero": [ 0.256090989876448, 0.22718124929201866, 0.18834765814709467, 0.24106504830318826, 0.20657456941105362, 0.2484244897974957, 0.11453000392816233, 0.2444143720268285 ] }, "crps": 6.310806537346706, "crpss": -0.6558958622505981, "rps": 0.5651982480864427, "rpss": -0.256646133595156, "mean_bias_mm": -6.121790864029397, "mean_mae_mm": 7.0143325205765805, "mean_rmse_mm": 14.704257025635876, "spread_error_ratio": 0.5464753519548637, "zero_fraction": 0.21582854759778622, "correlation": 0.1686360043780791, "pit_histogram": [ 0.00257, 0.00588, 0.00931, 0.01458, 0.01759, 0.03892, 0.07203, 0.13147, 0.26314, 0.44452 ], "pit_reliability_index": 1.0782564683067166 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 1.9188004464841897, 1.9307912533458478, 11.091798180697095, 2.693939879165212, 15.757425660211403, 3.5924124798319985, 5.25953137640845, 1.9961105098496121 ], "crps_clim": [ 2.366231987002849, 2.259909659422711, 5.567918347623332, 1.9966771549125995, 8.330258482082852, 1.9477425770778494, 3.4305474768916633, 2.1733161564516763 ], "rps": [ 0.047604512839229764, 0.2624357446306218, 1.2427243691388479, 0.32699796504313716, 1.141472745326578, 0.8706653411777208, 0.580825710773846, 0.3604963487243077 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5473323710222779, 0.45950888532469003, 0.47310561454117583, 0.451258434482434, 0.43752408372393053, 0.3769753182133201, 0.34410807043894076, 0.45220364528394885 ], "bias": [ -1.789690002264706, -0.5875727126331748, -12.10517429334375, -2.643298242244427, -16.597987959666792, -3.637916200372197, -3.062559470586363, -1.5612868781359115 ], "mae": [ 1.9856683566038673, 1.7809757107570627, 12.44190352369051, 2.779584332107727, 16.68695059898567, 3.8266751563518318, 7.019659349680547, 2.020865641352151 ], "mse": [ 7.819511402934247, 6.402269421923392, 599.2068900935316, 25.601816010912838, 1006.8182905234171, 39.04958711977294, 207.63518959837225, 8.41120106393859 ], "var": [ 12.225130149821029, 62.62119830746982, 47.597832022737876, 15.629610252939296, 34.16739709200193, 21.94897995020457, 234.16284379784528, 21.233353443372785 ], "zero": [ 0.39963321105634914, 0.3882849778854912, 0.285983392255033, 0.39460339970313063, 0.3485983335245616, 0.3900548699900812, 0.12274716544067268, 0.3649709503831102 ] }, "crps": 5.530101223249226, "crpss": -0.5759426231966325, "rps": 0.6041528422067861, "rpss": -0.3645399005571952, "mean_bias_mm": -5.248185719905915, "mean_mae_mm": 6.067785333691171, "mean_rmse_mm": 15.414866019669141, "spread_error_ratio": 0.4863196393033075, "zero_fraction": 0.3368595375298037, "correlation": 0.09465927138201241, "pit_histogram": [ 0.00065, 0.0034, 0.0112, 0.00932, 0.01093, 0.03069, 0.0627, 0.15762, 0.27786, 0.43562 ], "pit_reliability_index": 1.1422076299684414 } }, "full": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 2.449791301817709, 2.2339340840832334, 20.363500064196216, 11.754832317904416, 30.540837123790183, 8.058015500775854, 3.9338341149347293, 3.9131828670034223, 14.110877354141293, 8.031892835923523, 23.256519363696746, 8.892457986581205, 3.4738028441199846, 9.821460619016486, 9.538310577032826, 14.989762384324125, 9.46882284221344, 4.128803758593155, 3.244647692821245, 7.609133371064126, 3.66405368858049, 2.97547269284405, 4.647717209383401, 2.8027858264954735, 2.8134590619214777, 2.3966776548348094, 10.146524457046384, 4.403149217713809, 15.63692560275053, 5.273604448904835, 6.904346374183138, 2.911765481418664 ], "crps_clim": [ 2.6897179853589925, 2.867287610747155, 11.613583597576943, 5.886197674812449, 27.77500554826608, 3.3326847383568015, 2.8099124904438204, 2.624493357547262, 7.71221722782229, 3.8123457628295836, 14.271810450341063, 4.481516504313957, 2.329174473258749, 4.367684268620377, 4.603049696222213, 8.657359289497048, 4.649450179185341, 2.4755201422145108, 2.7360868719092664, 3.4495472657845374, 2.254603487223936, 2.505246979400119, 3.1059697413108407, 2.855418618210857, 2.766727211701212, 2.9690284184817233, 4.63923895270541, 2.3781737857801595, 8.084302871907116, 2.606734429626978, 4.181426375823429, 2.68056081509455 ], "rps": [ 0.2698286961559719, 0.1755819824322737, 1.2557339448329223, 0.9501092109226428, 0.8101527194153648, 0.869238805353514, 0.27902196470574375, 0.38920065477333693, 1.19410756026275, 0.8674356085494036, 1.3108648607789908, 0.8962050188879733, 0.5909506284265303, 0.8990672210047799, 0.9777687683104997, 1.0430612303884421, 0.8066378884531651, 0.625238849419046, 0.21124296123018818, 0.8702522368334801, 0.4122830783494723, 0.40467311377143117, 0.6453538896950687, 0.37815972079685956, 0.16421692263810056, 0.22478229555387308, 0.9925983841629743, 0.44805042012328616, 1.212113483301188, 0.8183062545751052, 0.6570104401254839, 0.22511595383485888 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.49041507783712296, 0.5369376306368444, 0.5100667474154729, 0.4521868075526217, 0.5217072761921506, 0.4133935720112422, 0.47234840051899624, 0.43488625630302596, 0.5255484732176574, 0.43690918492602165, 0.5252437168376151, 0.45828462824902266, 0.38486514853319226, 0.4081996460632345, 0.40282801997469403, 0.5125391329245191, 0.44742012622339855, 0.39216921729503385, 0.5031366769351334, 0.41349098916290067, 0.4059993484819169, 0.41024969837800246, 0.3849070120945385, 0.44180910334017454, 0.4984255550790732, 0.4983306583397526, 0.40315870128184617, 0.42477518647713974, 0.4628459104807814, 0.3911057460601312, 0.4012825990880415, 0.4936916796322727 ], "bias": [ -0.14200299036367497, 0.15082242668374035, -21.771457707641012, -12.567365552949166, -33.3023960711529, -8.904463050706646, -4.074834199947043, -2.378093201487434, -15.53115935018896, -8.78542407304863, -24.7017567039192, -9.666813039458178, -1.635297472027753, -10.355773937245457, -10.501303323286182, -16.474902257528225, -9.489191343559492, -4.1089706475833125, -2.9117464177530246, -8.297211053428224, -3.520373183973408, -2.6872538093013985, -3.74261507943944, -0.6772545049949311, -2.7145312661833905, -0.19783305253563563, -11.043059345931987, -4.415684580967774, -16.881872210230668, -5.216660971302642, -5.931184642422095, -2.573500842660987 ], "mae": [ 3.0629585282473033, 2.7833651857557378, 21.89768528156337, 12.93940466565762, 34.14422641781939, 9.084202350958048, 4.298677779419878, 4.381826305497662, 15.886239411739833, 9.33769819740399, 24.992829537271383, 10.299103029915726, 4.239605951530486, 10.83940897355064, 10.625941376673104, 16.97090477850057, 10.709774771398095, 4.606654626464256, 3.3489444216916557, 8.72285992345067, 4.064101815974502, 3.420323835607489, 5.518100372130779, 2.960781004361755, 3.041287560799866, 2.6439711519084996, 11.364618411426555, 4.732144017921023, 16.98215816317052, 5.625012070385867, 8.628774756643976, 3.0966940323563317 ], "mse": [ 23.515505317628325, 17.295562327799978, 1514.454898150042, 503.38132788491606, 2821.0784763621473, 195.2304926698257, 61.61522773140008, 63.517314953726896, 621.7433296544491, 257.28425339487774, 1498.8066345942402, 297.44021634687016, 46.52456578044139, 459.43180180505794, 383.19986606404933, 713.0325280323102, 431.8667939781295, 52.69143230781893, 36.34022758332408, 223.0380470619418, 46.6426965947646, 26.410513257087217, 99.27184224932181, 24.734414336366644, 19.447104770651574, 15.173914876033527, 456.6744425989827, 81.35964389639057, 782.3884008922588, 96.56860024536037, 254.11910594438226, 23.99018418363668 ], "var": [ 68.30629569577445, 98.66512092026814, 49.75162583279451, 31.912823222254783, 163.30138769195986, 24.31919353169753, 16.290478149379883, 94.01523082969717, 94.39506573637424, 54.77410391241872, 55.63050724920168, 68.8827542909246, 119.22704071510006, 84.23729900508185, 24.801378801374984, 95.34526728752506, 82.30654522251952, 40.14295510083719, 38.81180649526798, 44.499941268475375, 35.32111048835276, 30.974719181571746, 90.90531424497455, 115.74508422252498, 24.554895890910224, 118.40269270392548, 45.34854045720815, 30.815421670227444, 47.542239350213265, 46.262128261650595, 172.2237205342999, 31.406247368916045 ], "zero": [ 0.16918913834137117, 0.17777384535277596, 0.21900108249857667, 0.23225687816193358, 0.11896016516699413, 0.15254815233021166, 0.257625531747366, 0.1601812873030095, 0.21276443456617108, 0.15286960520787615, 0.2096609003652644, 0.16661114485523001, 0.1412231947839681, 0.15834569111241714, 0.21453141705889217, 0.14677166122130317, 0.16171679709174216, 0.17716075006528995, 0.3269505449020353, 0.20565984549693472, 0.2775481557429885, 0.266952239043055, 0.17162776430802407, 0.20816047167518453, 0.256090989876448, 0.22718124929201866, 0.18834765814709467, 0.24106504830318826, 0.20657456941105362, 0.2484244897974957, 0.11453000392816233, 0.2444143720268285 ] }, "crps": 8.262215647503467, "crpss": -0.6104498757493788, "rps": 0.6835738990020225, "rpss": -0.512838083495565, "mean_bias_mm": -8.282848858016722, "mean_mae_mm": 9.226571209599893, "mean_rmse_mm": 19.484183782819716, "spread_error_ratio": 0.4196239422407936, "zero_fraction": 0.20039747122440327, "correlation": 0.17075964286640571, "pit_histogram": [ 0.00376, 0.00689, 0.00987, 0.0157, 0.02595, 0.04507, 0.07642, 0.13076, 0.24731, 0.43828 ], "pit_reliability_index": 1.0327071347778116 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 1.6597180542749763, 1.8389241258065228, 11.540284703426945, 3.8525423559795833, 35.69385589782556, 3.929350902372133, 3.164464957728669, 4.959707702137941, 11.555171286565763, 5.226783408771815, 24.5626966242088, 8.604970057379905, 2.6562787649685715, 6.979301337713999, 5.3240566202476804, 12.433705192343929, 12.12873011857886, 2.430336133432422, 2.11168440513758, 7.579953459106151, 2.1471405701853, 2.097779991234635, 2.691267633249599, 3.0947561780488306, 1.9188004464841897, 1.9307912533458478, 11.091798180697095, 2.693939879165212, 15.757425660211403, 3.5924124798319985, 5.25953137640845, 1.9961105098496121 ], "crps_clim": [ 2.1962156929740804, 2.1788012116298163, 5.48867715919352, 1.7773343754893767, 34.32641868083757, 1.8627034830071907, 1.9715211508068933, 2.4850922338242754, 5.825734906672177, 2.4213405279615716, 15.788972303238339, 4.131178922483057, 1.7605249281308137, 3.8097412938741515, 2.031828268076108, 7.918858186445213, 6.382316217886629, 2.0199351210734884, 2.268887809680827, 3.672694877557107, 1.9649460420847091, 2.2337494697367615, 2.0965498141099683, 1.8861829698011934, 2.2991833116108906, 2.179019211557004, 5.967272104997054, 1.9197227040545963, 8.917885769487894, 1.949950438310964, 3.6326875965041756, 2.091802235366322 ], "rps": [ 0.12315669747693364, 0.11720323562550629, 1.1736470996701596, 0.4985808745945993, 0.9115713455733364, 0.43971610296880137, 0.46155365396863834, 0.5393704153031492, 1.3383779618640752, 0.9508650033784781, 1.5938439347624944, 1.172893253152417, 0.7341136077007901, 0.6083300216640175, 0.9305649476384197, 1.2180690430260654, 0.8717853260136142, 0.4922858780645625, 0.08336240983174274, 1.1444542410273981, 0.16931932998811605, 0.3018219744920868, 0.8096720603960091, 0.5904364575901402, 0.04509899253192378, 0.25146843218190257, 1.2439831690067626, 0.33009700116031643, 1.16335021661857, 0.9853535244967675, 0.5620035400182306, 0.381203261867246 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5381511480265782, 0.5320773657724542, 0.49130303512889106, 0.38498928938989757, 0.5629552549427681, 0.38290325595556074, 0.3789331388282408, 0.4247100795822977, 0.5050165255638045, 0.3889502709540875, 0.5619307137731465, 0.5113363017784888, 0.34719627842747985, 0.37617173880982513, 0.3204093918893131, 0.5500282293506343, 0.49836540383658773, 0.43075767900875145, 0.5392014406556627, 0.46954411522421585, 0.5074149366392898, 0.43384618252591467, 0.40967831680734257, 0.35129371669777265, 0.556013264324054, 0.4676500824441632, 0.4913710435949474, 0.4477522470171603, 0.4328472498436856, 0.3755117997097963, 0.35728991623881007, 0.43983412768140073 ], "bias": [ -0.8190806626273173, 0.0705744322963729, -12.298194626826788, -3.9785485087501478, -38.982864778441154, -4.158213343510131, -3.323674742382728, -5.048818899615742, -11.867586492365811, -5.872194047879404, -25.675669177650043, -9.673020274373743, -1.9311322900802879, -6.816144075921313, -5.832856045369979, -14.176329721525686, -13.029577932668877, -2.2234490831023934, -1.5809820381919613, -8.428541685760523, -1.628282282664534, -1.4681955152091024, -0.7096783891274888, -1.689075473996936, -1.789690002264706, -0.5875727126331748, -12.10517429334375, -2.643298242244427, -16.597987959666792, -3.637916200372197, -3.062559470586363, -1.5612868781359115 ], "mae": [ 1.9252498925356547, 2.164886806510272, 12.355926163897136, 4.089874222375981, 39.28871304787877, 4.556948920007863, 3.385805774620691, 5.380497913051047, 12.348822960885165, 6.1618138919275305, 25.68441564676469, 9.76722435431688, 2.8303708442930624, 7.547181242252854, 5.851004429228249, 14.434767007103751, 13.16213541464146, 2.4879118168747953, 1.9422589859359847, 8.444754573229714, 2.1445170748402336, 2.1773763868020324, 3.2420538565216086, 2.748316039673385, 1.9856683566038673, 1.7809757107570627, 12.44190352369051, 2.779584332107727, 16.68695059898567, 3.8266751563518318, 7.019659349680547, 2.020865641352151 ], "mse": [ 7.597704445959716, 10.37715964183099, 715.1651683737738, 58.27859634361754, 3687.226912566003, 73.60966640290563, 27.564362309091344, 111.393325775343, 523.2362799595114, 116.2503410289536, 1508.697800494633, 306.10789626893984, 19.116096947552403, 414.9795728213307, 128.18029282942217, 565.0615287048844, 723.2136313126223, 15.001060096840396, 7.8869997668065075, 189.68952763490688, 12.590066572083423, 9.767896976045643, 27.23473493966988, 32.52887839999158, 7.819511402934247, 6.402269421923392, 599.2068900935316, 25.601816010912838, 1006.8182905234171, 39.04958711977294, 207.63518959837225, 8.41120106393859 ], "var": [ 25.806480862856247, 95.81017289645698, 28.58648251099763, 16.594756226253253, 167.69225487158667, 24.47902754108785, 7.028000723995133, 51.67374355952373, 104.26360232419042, 37.09870460703707, 20.37506635903755, 33.87196724818128, 58.41496774420815, 79.4585065776972, 6.34120578689764, 109.22872353117596, 35.3379425202405, 23.05964063595815, 29.483535448219957, 40.28648621725632, 25.9620825162982, 31.043968304309338, 108.48220234097093, 126.20450648807167, 12.225130149821029, 62.62119830746982, 47.597832022737876, 15.629610252939296, 34.16739709200193, 21.94897995020457, 234.16284379784528, 21.233353443372785 ], "zero": [ 0.2723914809397513, 0.27022250466222336, 0.38698089542812325, 0.42625871986616215, 0.18407227356891673, 0.24205092385584348, 0.47081023296892904, 0.265763575506043, 0.3983052580236054, 0.26190129932457795, 0.3688884021751464, 0.27888581028310033, 0.2515041213412062, 0.21639285671609843, 0.37474061505324163, 0.23129402256849738, 0.2522596985906883, 0.29666789920955555, 0.5418533371560738, 0.3110924675130208, 0.45803961646312935, 0.4347654651307952, 0.23436078535726715, 0.34711201430196387, 0.39963321105634914, 0.3882849778854912, 0.285983392255033, 0.39460339970313063, 0.3485983335245616, 0.3900548699900812, 0.12274716544067268, 0.3649709503831102 ] }, "crps": 6.953258445834999, "crpss": -0.5089359625147853, "rps": 0.6949235316766647, "rpss": -0.5372890796194525, "mean_bias_mm": -6.972719419218533, "mean_mae_mm": 7.583284685490568, "mean_rmse_mm": 18.701353774399195, "spread_error_ratio": 0.39386567615877893, "zero_fraction": 0.3272340805075747, "correlation": 0.24756020848430413, "pit_histogram": [ 0.00053, 0.00221, 0.00585, 0.00709, 0.01388, 0.03245, 0.06316, 0.13649, 0.28035, 0.45799 ], "pit_reliability_index": 1.1496585651879876 } }, "distribution_full": { "ethiopia": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 0.34290025446013644, "area_mean_abs_log": 1.1423932940773598 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9600177081891329, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.9778141874748836 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean_abs_log": 8.714801454206329 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 0.14088432828707684, "area_mean_abs_log": 3.5882445194697006 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 0.46572168522769214, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.9493170180045458 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.10551470588235284, "area_mean": 0.19089681979113032 } }, "ondj_domain": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 0.3074885640036921, "area_mean_abs_log": 1.1964951609006926 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0971856262153472, "area_mean_abs_log": 1.3053416863415357 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean_abs_log": 12.223299067989402 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 0.06001978265677227, "area_mean_abs_log": 5.4212411183497515 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 0.4208261012744906, "area_mean_abs_log": 1.0462921421517297 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.32691176470588224, "area_mean": 0.3272340805075743 } } } }, "ls": { "training": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 4.130994437249333, 3.762996697159843, 15.17367096617667, 7.235366174115342, 16.885602481176463, 5.18354248583195, 2.595263148348602, 4.2028265913795995, 8.661565674549424, 4.627630214507408, 16.447612083255756, 5.67903372267371, 3.9704369037868066, 6.329709742088343, 5.933953125437363, 9.90861985235458, 6.484568437307914, 2.98235041361617, 2.3071644938600797, 4.300396631801649, 2.5966320343751326, 2.336419245081136, 4.793831709994694, 3.216506369197958 ], "crps_clim": [ 3.147316707451114, 3.345505329459557, 10.984966213801052, 5.565431468435425, 27.0718763908127, 3.331872595873229, 3.2339333066026654, 2.898578484108726, 7.306127788484703, 3.578837768945852, 13.61369806885984, 4.185041134572365, 2.552105347257009, 4.271290701634523, 4.644138020744405, 8.101898044577364, 4.707631815249459, 2.7497107572454813, 3.224323436142348, 3.3810268425956997, 2.5984657102999638, 2.914534006884459, 3.0779701844454106, 3.298398263301115 ], "rps": [ 0.42780809324493113, 0.34525394832572065, 0.930552515097407, 0.5480213956704403, 0.3834333717847731, 0.6197601718694681, 0.24570505235189374, 0.3740394071207554, 0.7869499054127139, 0.5098171214988165, 0.8774647964365454, 0.5712127283300854, 0.47406329340961717, 0.6212343493341629, 0.6587999586914814, 0.6698244284931847, 0.599979986841495, 0.4886435679624699, 0.215482113901459, 0.5593630928875467, 0.33673460147018613, 0.3347497173966338, 0.4552712510491929, 0.40001447622785874 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.49730130537920497, 0.5299108646278966, 0.4968209717644765, 0.45140321931037847, 0.5120439289026995, 0.41031169775019555, 0.4779713217459693, 0.4530884207483443, 0.5043277856041234, 0.41692670592375, 0.5103230613419248, 0.4397744822519408, 0.3965890908147674, 0.3999865051869261, 0.4105095348843729, 0.49534705826094655, 0.4525412470698913, 0.40263417109494526, 0.4947135592926832, 0.4107579460380184, 0.4281083679843292, 0.43735476661089284, 0.37946484897479493, 0.465353650018479 ], "bias": [ 10.391975671444944, 11.253863941873046, -15.930833978609, -6.8829825586752165, -13.545002723497234, -2.8625314980690386, -0.6119559966883177, 9.612843174830022, -5.456264697113332, 0.905588204856082, -17.869339654734386, 0.8856872765351473, 10.712438939275884, -1.1805399856088088, -5.261375733737284, -6.6455958972808, 0.7978809038994442, 3.478222689615018, 2.0879982341103007, 1.011441233990918, 2.966575897451266, 3.63003321318018, 9.751036103640152, 10.200158703342233 ], "mae": [ 10.658407713490297, 11.378414966501614, 16.30817687239652, 8.285245972465924, 19.610555545639816, 5.864473431923885, 2.2349829806746504, 10.441351226207804, 8.033999170091255, 5.629021695837423, 18.63158892515182, 6.251903237818574, 11.139571139822777, 7.295389335413347, 6.322952629589321, 8.514054896401719, 9.333964478564821, 4.779969283627839, 3.3338969814614243, 4.738324550334815, 3.722516054270347, 4.363881697265461, 10.977345314191012, 10.51734039696502 ], "mse": [ 269.3833677153249, 337.90668386741413, 973.4323451329395, 245.31624787069154, 984.2606872931048, 87.0041777974157, 24.198174073890545, 242.3911891765165, 180.57518621870028, 98.03047380395381, 892.9635353420036, 115.97317647365767, 296.630791852936, 175.3514799271443, 153.2551138465167, 236.8868355762275, 259.261973445622, 50.44423630540333, 34.006519461580965, 57.24669286644512, 32.233343940206254, 53.30009600683718, 351.4999421395194, 220.19321509498687 ], "var": [ 753.6398632871338, 1398.0309888209893, 524.1409570983542, 293.23387522441874, 2018.8995518928807, 305.8515336045695, 144.67217288517026, 1289.5906424980187, 1301.202393488784, 579.5903701535069, 491.16858036811544, 844.4727764289826, 1347.6473574588122, 1080.1811429030843, 270.69124883992953, 1263.6526839022245, 920.8046154117955, 528.6838963043377, 486.53466302162735, 831.5968894449117, 439.1694639100518, 396.0324512259626, 1423.3055780409616, 1871.2544217526017 ], "zero": [ 0.16918913834137117, 0.17777384535277596, 0.21900108249857667, 0.23225687816193358, 0.11896016516699413, 0.15254815233021166, 0.257625531747366, 0.1601812873030095, 0.21276443456617108, 0.15286960520787615, 0.2096609003652644, 0.16661114485523001, 0.1412231947839681, 0.15834569111241714, 0.21453141705889217, 0.14677166122130317, 0.16171679709174216, 0.17716075006528995, 0.3269505449020353, 0.20565984549693472, 0.2775481557429885, 0.266952239043055, 0.17162776430802407, 0.20816047167518453 ] }, "crps": 6.2394455681385805, "crpss": -0.11931123533648913, "rps": 0.5180908060337016, "rpss": -0.14352375723384947, "mean_bias_mm": 0.059971727667967656, "mean_mae_mm": 8.681972020671145, "mean_rmse_mm": 16.293845317109053, "spread_error_ratio": 1.8069440896098161, "zero_fraction": 0.19525377909994232, "correlation": 0.10744608929111168, "pit_histogram": [ 0.0026, 0.00849, 0.02824, 0.05089, 0.08116, 0.11131, 0.15864, 0.2021, 0.24957, 0.107 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.657228100741367 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 2.5182606557594815, 2.690380818577838, 8.713957799780088, 2.6497035158919897, 20.078347054051886, 2.6212615584863093, 2.3807610727392756, 3.900082118356618, 7.950804938541634, 3.394508919174932, 19.027742785260074, 5.1837193692956465, 2.666178756254979, 4.878510265612803, 3.356410821934893, 8.637171318914788, 8.03122819841049, 1.8709169809465238, 1.8348150996605763, 4.416822375047003, 1.9638070539740007, 1.9394003505851616, 4.524443291865136, 2.7357880981281855 ], "crps_clim": [ 2.4548094454165224, 2.4172161936748946, 5.333194544027777, 1.8549628212328, 34.12225179677904, 1.8644358450759109, 2.122993377234286, 2.4401382645813325, 5.73783658336709, 2.3217318677782153, 15.529706680297545, 3.9621897190875477, 1.8639890286330005, 3.876280862498442, 2.06925731997254, 7.631461938517677, 6.263162085572975, 2.1837307589862482, 2.5462616594235836, 3.4498462746206284, 2.1833797898673692, 2.4890121894953605, 2.173582577005678, 2.0020724813943143 ], "rps": [ 0.30101297308637787, 0.24819899097986908, 0.8503406721985577, 0.3571506005152324, 0.3958420229421822, 0.31434942692195045, 0.3739027903023543, 0.3705055206297676, 0.9770489506314846, 0.546034058461604, 1.157835359421162, 0.7247640813151114, 0.4892070577030123, 0.47017970490816297, 0.6587991066588261, 0.7719649376445001, 0.5746396011835723, 0.409972683253878, 0.13465415176589848, 0.7963543164502223, 0.22083615348753233, 0.3200774200335925, 0.5934746736643475, 0.4827675733179255 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5271012391842729, 0.5237026472803199, 0.4726651024187634, 0.4183814425674277, 0.5463137996219282, 0.3948310596898503, 0.4065592098294793, 0.42831468140896223, 0.49352864345894915, 0.3706979572196848, 0.5445864342119232, 0.4920445653961977, 0.3565574386141641, 0.3975457684832652, 0.35150037945920126, 0.5287991707856597, 0.48528999945591406, 0.42598320924629246, 0.518005444784471, 0.4652291028680146, 0.5021412621347012, 0.4343952625071855, 0.40487741585469383, 0.3925124516437722 ], "bias": [ 5.722394961714522, 9.499493976775021, -8.106990645029574, -0.4937861748711088, -20.682445698688998, 1.8824113696604554, -1.2779167706983001, 4.50026946889692, -2.8995611558824663, 2.6985405463077488, -21.644506058278175, -1.5107149001022788, 6.345561828526498, 2.51174238477907, -2.8612644460868597, -3.4941707814311935, -5.875694776843116, 3.873112055730677, 2.3574745569115914, 0.2203387284854439, 3.9687384040854656, 3.503914686248432, 13.652689384092701, 8.818579707120259 ], "mae": [ 6.341076750339751, 9.690145115559615, 8.53090255633177, 2.238105014488372, 21.76554808401186, 3.3604632347598287, 1.957755730860396, 6.45957451749146, 7.107181089115286, 4.498656089319862, 21.64451309408367, 4.802178649851646, 7.132076959423085, 8.184078796805162, 3.1056380779319324, 5.169490113278758, 9.186498471172898, 4.058382562463988, 2.8361473957089327, 3.8133608116020836, 4.1609951311911875, 4.338803777896004, 13.898104995863845, 9.368953243658462 ], "mse": [ 140.74484825868885, 287.7117759972413, 458.9099212452253, 17.346605369650288, 1212.9995409128335, 35.424479499289596, 9.951149329981005, 107.48907288391091, 194.36398677672565, 82.96406498373507, 1058.5803039293307, 89.85644915250168, 190.76751550609686, 229.03126775970833, 52.68912629713386, 104.7823779508335, 392.3624713926306, 36.203462441993494, 27.143555907261238, 40.26294517787666, 42.5605887400822, 59.1569731249083, 549.8880895077094, 190.32598429651935 ], "var": [ 411.1967492303602, 1708.153944993914, 399.7027875125185, 309.63456200505124, 2475.30171228837, 360.89661798069363, 93.92681233044317, 1176.1603662615819, 1925.6248480022948, 606.824996215751, 246.45471067250713, 616.9876730860507, 898.5754888192232, 1297.0050761407267, 94.79236982872752, 1836.7787547587332, 525.6146848869907, 540.104200291032, 452.77267822837086, 1087.505755278978, 464.5274211316085, 515.2452158322288, 2255.3851229895345, 2758.995564203961 ], "zero": [ 0.2723914809397513, 0.27022250466222336, 0.38698089542812325, 0.42625871986616215, 0.18407227356891673, 0.24205092385584348, 0.47081023296892904, 0.265763575506043, 0.3983052580236054, 0.26190129932457795, 0.3688884021751464, 0.27888581028310033, 0.2515041213412062, 0.21639285671609843, 0.37474061505324163, 0.23129402256849738, 0.2522596985906883, 0.29666789920955555, 0.5418533371560738, 0.3110924675130208, 0.45803961646312935, 0.4347654651307952, 0.23436078535726715, 0.34711201430196387 ] }, "crps": 5.33187596738543, "crpss": -0.07629953529448597, "rps": 0.5224963678115467, "rpss": -0.15239989278027766, "mean_bias_mm": 0.02950877714261413, "mean_mae_mm": 7.23535959430041, "mean_rmse_mm": 15.290951240905338, "spread_error_ratio": 2.0270864765023764, "zero_fraction": 0.3240255948334983, "correlation": 0.24685864131706833, "pit_histogram": [ 0.00055, 0.0047, 0.01119, 0.01685, 0.03354, 0.07503, 0.13976, 0.24134, 0.35597, 0.12107 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.9162569289367333 } }, "operational": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 2.000805517439019, 2.8871368509798723, 5.622618803385625, 2.967274850652033, 10.736030057151572, 3.7239232008156944, 6.85428033403854, 2.2275495948105886 ], "crps_clim": [ 3.000358402837215, 3.2118104787747215, 4.432332626338175, 2.616293468105364, 7.502465706182092, 2.7696475536717284, 4.029967303787228, 2.9260298617309384 ], "rps": [ 0.17972944375083366, 0.3279676744323866, 0.6111029774964538, 0.36817887315864145, 0.8239011843632468, 0.5791175247839038, 0.4995047826376347, 0.24982689052353177 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5137613090872692, 0.49705239615939123, 0.40610073525670304, 0.44669601338418186, 0.4481977724282379, 0.39955792469123536, 0.39062127201913327, 0.49615040098932883 ], "bias": [ 1.870178145880398, 8.921843914166482, -2.8219534825432664, 0.5690258573689285, -9.92867422062893, 0.7986687306172731, 12.901482409813196, 2.8071592537439902 ], "mae": [ 2.6589367854181845, 9.06311416504055, 5.059826616033342, 3.2677182977007337, 10.793133226852971, 3.4661406949918594, 15.174827047048012, 3.5755565377754484 ], "mse": [ 18.53250302549211, 180.665490005894, 114.38576173895105, 39.991892354663605, 390.8739382827518, 34.041867348295106, 530.5556332848915, 31.199767923485094 ], "var": [ 254.27016235940147, 1300.7966509293742, 578.1013082282587, 340.99984831185725, 593.4715807707155, 503.42600096385445, 2463.5268420347043, 349.2269696586161 ], "zero": [ 0.256090989876448, 0.22718124929201866, 0.18834765814709467, 0.24106504830318826, 0.20657456941105362, 0.2484244897974957, 0.11453000392816233, 0.2444143720268285 ] }, "crps": 4.627452401159118, "crpss": -0.21419968089571761, "rps": 0.4549161688933291, "rpss": -0.011448012595910662, "mean_bias_mm": 1.889716326052259, "mean_mae_mm": 6.6324066713576375, "mean_rmse_mm": 12.94337115073013, "spread_error_ratio": 2.182468060090228, "zero_fraction": 0.21582854759778622, "correlation": 0.16863600437807907, "pit_histogram": [ 0.0014, 0.00466, 0.01837, 0.04137, 0.07294, 0.10977, 0.16335, 0.21307, 0.29602, 0.07903 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.7644454935711594 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 1.520261551553797, 2.3023360118886202, 6.712566678055732, 2.0073999676324195, 11.197233915411895, 2.7207676119313264, 6.806966264233335, 1.8045626880370635 ], "crps_clim": [ 2.366231987002849, 2.259909659422711, 5.567918347623332, 1.9966771549125995, 8.330258482082852, 1.9477425770778494, 3.4305474768916633, 2.1733161564516763 ], "rps": [ 0.11695496179219025, 0.3176699536576512, 0.7940587008805409, 0.3128655458370256, 0.7798000125449981, 0.6944775727181562, 0.4062126146743679, 0.3754913788771704 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5473323710222779, 0.45950888532469003, 0.47310561454117583, 0.451258434482434, 0.43752408372393053, 0.3769753182133201, 0.34410807043894076, 0.45220364528394885 ], "bias": [ 1.4520577672417656, 6.7973774759830565, -3.9805621291683506, 0.930267052991929, -10.710242802720582, 0.5721335203826142, 19.406010052597356, 3.3971146683721942 ], "mae": [ 2.231414611468682, 7.017265183873483, 5.989719237467287, 2.1062201682075323, 11.793193959094658, 2.531954374121525, 19.472555783135917, 3.4722467008002513 ], "mse": [ 13.960610580951142, 129.8897392877594, 173.8197758787644, 14.786061437381695, 583.5495459078911, 17.64583084507447, 809.1611884459802, 31.408517814353136 ], "var": [ 193.77708166488623, 1139.2950255525554, 701.6993804973025, 221.65501407418745, 591.9727302393837, 310.15611428211037, 3747.4306838427347, 344.83445748620903 ], "zero": [ 0.39963321105634914, 0.3882849778854912, 0.285983392255033, 0.39460339970313063, 0.3485983335245616, 0.3900548699900812, 0.12274716544067268, 0.3649709503831102 ] }, "crps": 4.384011836093023, "crpss": -0.24933537998390398, "rps": 0.4746913426227625, "rpss": -0.0721380952075743, "mean_bias_mm": 2.233019450709998, "mean_mae_mm": 6.826821252271166, "mean_rmse_mm": 14.892201273645526, "spread_error_ratio": 2.021574197819171, "zero_fraction": 0.3368595375298037, "correlation": 0.09465927138201238, "pit_histogram": [ 4e-05, 0.00458, 0.0149, 0.02852, 0.05276, 0.06713, 0.14027, 0.22554, 0.39916, 0.06709 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.929949772730944 } }, "full": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 3.9166256661459093, 3.563640036620789, 15.281356809358421, 7.352310348806002, 17.378370734598604, 5.168260602119799, 2.607436948120805, 4.029741673043189, 8.695638136825387, 4.686102663438412, 16.719811296757257, 5.765898719735684, 3.876641343601728, 6.311567038681833, 5.918692768503909, 10.06918649505005, 6.345607567676805, 2.885851991841672, 2.2733617864029494, 4.294734007650574, 2.5366949838052104, 2.253902350239451, 4.603771175497872, 3.14090398128477, 1.9677760974548457, 2.854370004273307, 5.6838516696576535, 2.936039292306449, 10.994168941129693, 3.715018900625554, 6.739959641425646, 2.183467889724583 ], "crps_clim": [ 2.6897179853589925, 2.867287610747155, 11.613583597576943, 5.886197674812449, 27.77500554826608, 3.3326847383568015, 2.8099124904438204, 2.624493357547262, 7.71221722782229, 3.8123457628295836, 14.271810450341063, 4.481516504313957, 2.329174473258749, 4.367684268620377, 4.603049696222213, 8.657359289497048, 4.649450179185341, 2.4755201422145108, 2.7360868719092664, 3.4495472657845374, 2.254603487223936, 2.505246979400119, 3.1059697413108407, 2.855418618210857, 2.766727211701212, 2.9690284184817233, 4.63923895270541, 2.3781737857801595, 8.084302871907116, 2.606734429626978, 4.181426375823429, 2.68056081509455 ], "rps": [ 0.4414006902677307, 0.3633377488248171, 0.9254415496505984, 0.5565982635853661, 0.376173148251983, 0.6285025681040158, 0.25997564591086453, 0.3855911108708696, 0.7787114720083446, 0.5318684046315569, 0.8693902941751069, 0.5846980492216431, 0.4892607396666311, 0.6365020777256191, 0.6826282626551754, 0.6834182140762649, 0.5924448273105287, 0.49406957934365503, 0.22218694607720224, 0.5664544698836894, 0.34466042233065647, 0.345547731476375, 0.4546427963608556, 0.42763049166705225, 0.20128621455316953, 0.3325893207976093, 0.632695189219947, 0.3860693204261252, 0.8406726640937005, 0.6281598295510119, 0.48478819281906127, 0.25911512187384733 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.49041507783712296, 0.5369376306368444, 0.5100667474154729, 0.4521868075526217, 0.5217072761921506, 0.4133935720112422, 0.47234840051899624, 0.43488625630302596, 0.5255484732176574, 0.43690918492602165, 0.5252437168376151, 0.45828462824902266, 0.38486514853319226, 0.4081996460632345, 0.40282801997469403, 0.5125391329245191, 0.44742012622339855, 0.39216921729503385, 0.5031366769351334, 0.41349098916290067, 0.4059993484819169, 0.41024969837800246, 0.3849070120945385, 0.44180910334017454, 0.4984255550790732, 0.4983306583397526, 0.40315870128184617, 0.42477518647713974, 0.4628459104807814, 0.3911057460601312, 0.4012825990880415, 0.4936916796322727 ], "bias": [ 9.759315713889853, 10.455094265624977, -16.143991806211, -7.041305057025506, -14.305405080175388, -3.17296096782756, -0.7277524124694795, 8.802094272053843, -6.08217284921259, 0.4099658219142808, -18.01866001751746, 0.3261316130202659, 10.074712977129163, -1.7474194439747905, -5.369598230646894, -7.18701676749929, 0.07619762115466887, 3.0072352851764705, 1.7965716886764262, 0.44435314109200674, 2.6094103563564923, 3.2488621898500893, 8.629509305176125, 9.438813315735741, 1.641726944544483, 8.70197032584606, -3.4035027288997473, 0.2914889866207315, -10.548835857051541, 0.5066885792583424, 12.705591804364854, 2.5114421875419115 ], "mae": [ 10.03485907251112, 10.561474376891532, 16.485761635883733, 8.460425818420031, 20.37351294740102, 5.745820605722413, 2.26272938012182, 9.690863415752581, 7.981351568316494, 5.680048439426261, 18.952533399231218, 6.429867709244309, 10.592609754517085, 6.896594505934555, 6.271514263754813, 9.014458991197024, 8.651894155582267, 4.220724055848922, 2.9899823187834214, 4.614352748296849, 3.33656302695144, 3.942007274263497, 9.987663703847304, 9.770287082206044, 2.4403804742731805, 8.828942286363072, 5.149063011565644, 2.9777178499827937, 11.140234551398825, 3.3099107136567683, 14.883618342901244, 3.214637807566508 ], "mse": [ 236.81283987321757, 294.36510315674764, 982.5280893705001, 250.59410541179108, 1047.6605005487033, 85.4112098358317, 23.83158273258517, 207.11389409183818, 184.23948627652774, 100.20491349112667, 917.003670307303, 123.12988312163269, 279.4821882745913, 168.07428612276905, 149.81014883485753, 257.9635282858215, 237.25633951252587, 38.91698682203232, 28.52297668903515, 55.56713727261476, 26.793870222068094, 45.7363336981699, 301.10700365831235, 189.1219192185723, 15.652831625805621, 172.1126537613157, 123.36885859347579, 35.86975976878019, 420.90911185020633, 31.247572268037096, 512.9015680348646, 26.19078444097303 ], "var": [ 693.3267728555769, 1230.282353111333, 494.5444647359088, 276.2563220498227, 1909.6530616701857, 284.2799462236427, 140.17595140176292, 1174.3789027957682, 1159.8314555466359, 537.4192377527179, 478.70199397744574, 780.304487200136, 1263.2659006881943, 983.8506645479728, 276.02289955267315, 1162.1089522160041, 822.8715046200887, 473.3808776386333, 441.9325853620758, 756.2283902224162, 405.42597292876764, 359.1592837832471, 1232.9846344707078, 1628.6318494327631, 235.67295240127567, 1225.9918883296502, 521.2235376612155, 314.1322003267071, 515.3444006203765, 472.8732013861597, 2431.9534763688075, 318.9173472604576 ], "zero": [ 0.16918913834137117, 0.17777384535277596, 0.21900108249857667, 0.23225687816193358, 0.11896016516699413, 0.15254815233021166, 0.257625531747366, 0.1601812873030095, 0.21276443456617108, 0.15286960520787615, 0.2096609003652644, 0.16661114485523001, 0.1412231947839681, 0.15834569111241714, 0.21453141705889217, 0.14677166122130317, 0.16171679709174216, 0.17716075006528995, 0.3269505449020353, 0.20565984549693472, 0.2775481557429885, 0.266952239043055, 0.17162776430802407, 0.20816047167518453, 0.256090989876448, 0.22718124929201866, 0.18834765814709467, 0.24106504830318826, 0.20657456941105362, 0.2484244897974957, 0.11453000392816233, 0.2444143720268285 ] }, "crps": 5.835961298825151, "crpss": -0.13753060311504095, "rps": 0.5127034799190962, "rpss": -0.1346795878173479, "mean_bias_mm": 0.05276734926611065, "mean_mae_mm": 7.965387665244181, "mean_rmse_mm": 15.380081616709477, "spread_error_ratio": 1.8173817722581713, "zero_fraction": 0.20039747122440327, "correlation": 0.1135363228443466, "pit_histogram": [ 0.00233, 0.00719, 0.02348, 0.04647, 0.07731, 0.10861, 0.15851, 0.20945, 0.26577, 0.10088 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.6864543615356723 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 2.4160056454854884, 2.601014988170324, 8.786018232898083, 2.675997861889306, 20.65503266203789, 2.563610273578488, 2.408366191189857, 3.8452159694892405, 8.025817379465046, 3.301879396845827, 19.223461580749046, 5.251088728135891, 2.557412944514594, 4.798382161664684, 3.403294380678319, 8.736182716159345, 8.08284946904256, 1.83976832396418, 1.8299703525377302, 4.532495538888772, 1.9267187358127922, 1.9299605213070632, 4.2953773655521275, 2.6885983446399853, 1.5125782693794863, 2.284250064303582, 6.834000248902338, 2.0068624137211803, 11.559000456436141, 2.748158844433989, 6.801694038908472, 1.7789370563707034 ], "crps_clim": [ 2.1962156929740804, 2.1788012116298163, 5.48867715919352, 1.7773343754893767, 34.32641868083757, 1.8627034830071907, 1.9715211508068933, 2.4850922338242754, 5.825734906672177, 2.4213405279615716, 15.788972303238339, 4.131178922483057, 1.7605249281308137, 3.8097412938741515, 2.031828268076108, 7.918858186445213, 6.382316217886629, 2.0199351210734884, 2.268887809680827, 3.672694877557107, 1.9649460420847091, 2.2337494697367615, 2.0965498141099683, 1.8861829698011934, 2.2991833116108906, 2.179019211557004, 5.967272104997054, 1.9197227040545963, 8.917885769487894, 1.949950438310964, 3.6326875965041756, 2.091802235366322 ], "rps": [ 0.3071922052968444, 0.24364123255478903, 0.8902661275898764, 0.39417129654023736, 0.39731435341427196, 0.31721967539795975, 0.3929677070791312, 0.3914578420161907, 0.9850794960070103, 0.5753236750203706, 1.1667944644867283, 0.7472264988870987, 0.5242850642093837, 0.45218942100012366, 0.6953898340044826, 0.7944201371747758, 0.5875080546869357, 0.4289995164562689, 0.11872916072595457, 0.7928721662409068, 0.2105711903228416, 0.3173971281264293, 0.6057317274225086, 0.48522865845625957, 0.11085976892345119, 0.31119583056414657, 0.8069488137084999, 0.31081149246071116, 0.807114481007996, 0.780064448171897, 0.39201284130002906, 0.3844052923819491 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5381511480265782, 0.5320773657724542, 0.49130303512889106, 0.38498928938989757, 0.5629552549427681, 0.38290325595556074, 0.3789331388282408, 0.4247100795822977, 0.5050165255638045, 0.3889502709540875, 0.5619307137731465, 0.5113363017784888, 0.34719627842747985, 0.37617173880982513, 0.3204093918893131, 0.5500282293506343, 0.49836540383658773, 0.43075767900875145, 0.5392014406556627, 0.46954411522421585, 0.5074149366392898, 0.43384618252591467, 0.40967831680734257, 0.35129371669777265, 0.556013264324054, 0.4676500824441632, 0.4913710435949474, 0.4477522470171603, 0.4328472498436856, 0.3755117997097963, 0.35728991623881007, 0.43983412768140073 ], "bias": [ 5.232732461630402, 8.690763240996745, -8.386923042158287, -0.7672512967953629, -21.57478419374282, 1.3857925658863572, -1.4414216852857147, 3.797089570441698, -3.618133286362636, 2.063919833469897, -21.80917100945587, -2.1347304212570486, 5.674209970526282, 1.7976232977502289, -3.054266828368278, -4.26936426052775, -6.418569893496869, 3.3684709880053245, 2.0511290917123675, -0.39646013180853945, 3.494850156869788, 3.0948907664156726, 12.268179187167677, 7.8097827263896455, 1.2196310377920692, 6.420697172368439, -4.721269824222874, 0.6497369230690813, -11.404476404100885, 0.2656005113026985, 19.51803442147248, 3.070805998192445 ], "mae": [ 5.8779077358183125, 8.868321737132456, 8.702649845611262, 2.2026826096330807, 22.59290241019506, 3.0208015633617826, 2.0531048403974435, 5.936074638687884, 6.873561192193211, 4.140801489940043, 21.80917100945587, 4.817113271665462, 6.522362810414901, 7.4822976875567715, 3.2597016504632297, 5.56505533104703, 8.985782565838765, 3.650896030267273, 2.5840020629080716, 4.0269105968172685, 3.6971325660763794, 3.982017461981025, 12.516215221028816, 8.40728816614248, 2.111501240203401, 6.64334472563696, 6.2176902698673215, 1.9309203028696622, 12.20716093419944, 2.5459549841164177, 19.563780614307063, 3.1510743118191336 ], "mse": [ 126.96448394428926, 255.54574031267794, 463.2079810281814, 17.382370492523602, 1298.9354447224148, 30.313565955686293, 10.886801125108683, 92.09191206968204, 193.73261865492577, 68.99445236042392, 1071.7293491545522, 92.55962574277972, 169.52139469169558, 210.88315360357993, 54.14815926436224, 120.34590854695647, 392.19411450114785, 29.132330529574148, 23.858610866561225, 43.40357015317361, 35.61002212819446, 52.736040869756714, 470.3296142318169, 155.30338400358323, 12.406398298384019, 121.53247817592043, 189.33833629529713, 12.814861502034951, 626.9222242522097, 17.326660839435608, 811.9116936395162, 27.67974787720224 ], "var": [ 375.3909620020104, 1490.692902413071, 369.2131232951086, 275.99536138796475, 2319.58611282767, 324.8738427931096, 85.99769254866887, 1080.1511923301357, 1687.7401587066588, 550.0739627468073, 236.96611315281993, 551.6206760258765, 804.2587494760332, 1181.6885580508751, 89.83002886826127, 1669.8641506025153, 468.3187956263883, 471.1966511163905, 409.8174499328369, 977.1501803736927, 407.11942592384827, 460.17968373529845, 1917.5212343954088, 2380.8884269536024, 176.63537258321674, 1043.2641901526829, 614.313637195122, 197.64822111249995, 494.8882390852574, 283.7942503980039, 3773.099494004104, 316.3307434880238 ], "zero": [ 0.2723914809397513, 0.27022250466222336, 0.38698089542812325, 0.42625871986616215, 0.18407227356891673, 0.24205092385584348, 0.47081023296892904, 0.265763575506043, 0.3983052580236054, 0.26190129932457795, 0.3688884021751464, 0.27888581028310033, 0.2515041213412062, 0.21639285671609843, 0.37474061505324163, 0.23129402256849738, 0.2522596985906883, 0.29666789920955555, 0.5418533371560738, 0.3110924675130208, 0.45803961646312935, 0.4347654651307952, 0.23436078535726715, 0.34711201430196387, 0.39963321105634914, 0.3882849778854912, 0.285983392255033, 0.39460339970313063, 0.3485983335245616, 0.3900548699900812, 0.12274716544067268, 0.3649709503831102 ] }, "crps": 5.121875036161017, "crpss": -0.11150498687410271, "rps": 0.5226684250511269, "rpss": -0.15623147795036263, "mean_bias_mm": 0.05865992637113626, "mean_mae_mm": 6.935818183676665, "mean_rmse_mm": 15.103541647815637, "spread_error_ratio": 1.9404517582815262, "zero_fraction": 0.3272340805075747, "correlation": 0.1901945659493703, "pit_histogram": [ 0.00042, 0.00445, 0.01089, 0.01936, 0.03346, 0.06521, 0.12883, 0.23623, 0.38345, 0.11771 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.932415504248425 } }, "distribution_full": { "ethiopia": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0060822354756989, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.05843025573762069 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 2.5006661231299976, "area_mean_abs_log": 1.2287243531354426 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean_abs_log": 8.275720730279087 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 0.4127745173596258, "area_mean_abs_log": 2.7738987802108945 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.4150339410735693, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.3978071183123624 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.10551470588235284, "area_mean": 0.19089681979113032 } }, "ondj_domain": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0131256666381514, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.015254281816613676 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 3.206555110822611, "area_mean_abs_log": 1.5735109694177853 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean_abs_log": 12.023624410143757 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 0.13425412496009761, "area_mean_abs_log": 4.797748711250294 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.5144871786798348, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.39719081476482315 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.32691176470588224, "area_mean": 0.3272340805075743 } } } }, "mvs": { "training": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 5.359974628709169, 5.447847475317655, 13.117105334304274, 6.193090853647752, 20.56482145008988, 3.6421838613631166, 3.2074154875934573, 3.9670571534361034, 7.00188440424559, 3.3155248907125174, 15.181389369158904, 3.9269231682734276, 3.8868750524241955, 4.772137004312959, 4.941002496496309, 7.944782611596326, 5.235358636395308, 3.232048026933391, 3.5312039616000566, 3.048494084544777, 2.9137587648607624, 3.6358820662618707, 4.106209147319422, 4.4361945801773945 ], "crps_clim": [ 3.147316707451114, 3.345505329459557, 10.984966213801052, 5.565431468435425, 27.0718763908127, 3.331872595873229, 3.2339333066026654, 2.898578484108726, 7.306127788484703, 3.578837768945852, 13.61369806885984, 4.185041134572365, 2.552105347257009, 4.271290701634523, 4.644138020744405, 8.101898044577364, 4.707631815249459, 2.7497107572454813, 3.224323436142348, 3.3810268425956997, 2.5984657102999638, 2.914534006884459, 3.0779701844454106, 3.298398263301115 ], "rps": [ 0.8913641227355706, 0.925972437248441, 0.6263135384681436, 0.503862997310094, 0.25852657540108925, 0.5392909523505142, 0.6273177277548783, 0.6711887502448605, 0.4356938245039165, 0.3853002890762444, 0.520537534210726, 0.39197775576664, 0.522312463072301, 0.47420844320788336, 0.4528641246190605, 0.45754384950955485, 0.5506271950100037, 0.5227904197314996, 0.6904749677311246, 0.3854726413282091, 0.6017846609696405, 0.6567705862878058, 0.4088142094053766, 0.6885167048865797 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.49730130537920497, 0.5299108646278966, 0.4968209717644765, 0.45140321931037847, 0.5120439289026995, 0.41031169775019555, 0.4779713217459693, 0.4530884207483443, 0.5043277856041234, 0.41692670592375, 0.5103230613419248, 0.4397744822519408, 0.3965890908147674, 0.3999865051869261, 0.4105095348843729, 0.49534705826094655, 0.4525412470698913, 0.40263417109494526, 0.4947135592926832, 0.4107579460380184, 0.4281083679843292, 0.43735476661089284, 0.37946484897479493, 0.465353650018479 ], "bias": [ 9.426504000097461, 10.073800690567447, -13.885470053349197, -4.5980702726939535, -22.812665180764338, -0.3110745990470115, 3.7968263157482447, 7.4358274176013115, -6.594596021973529, 0.5009931841488278, -16.72520832959839, -0.4258450496320888, 8.049458295906206, -1.258633173997897, -2.4780072275356395, -7.461345594826179, -0.13939180288206707, 4.51741279937588, 5.519652094353191, 0.8019475239300152, 5.055111819981848, 5.996329450526094, 6.646086612883839, 8.863694250753824 ], "mae": [ 9.45436574709241, 10.080965136506256, 14.633809765751403, 7.63861087180299, 24.474282944268104, 4.970240361192114, 4.577330567524153, 8.148344649971623, 7.995870575555084, 4.763194637525487, 17.204941437082002, 5.254147257863067, 8.170130672793624, 6.559525924020763, 6.160673810194352, 8.78654600411068, 7.693395134532217, 5.412854373077861, 5.75621498779568, 4.3145868463547465, 5.215354751933315, 6.065328506396253, 7.826793173706708, 9.052473357805347 ], "mse": [ 212.67261651087438, 251.64335676065812, 847.1184346166141, 204.02354105148288, 1528.1726446694577, 60.968449755857314, 58.03485329280785, 153.19117238860616, 183.902118855642, 73.16475950539741, 791.1397822299712, 90.82770676103618, 162.4143540689541, 163.12362092530057, 140.82002597584966, 245.22506028283738, 200.41472661334987, 71.7740057694902, 90.69121175251657, 50.88698011483019, 68.12566274674798, 101.86696471890718, 186.6500104876404, 180.15038523543626 ], "var": [ 162.6371095650171, 285.527725528203, 123.73368181143861, 65.4853448286633, 402.0685288895676, 72.98359922980043, 31.62670592472766, 239.77205584577283, 239.553386660221, 136.97954458833485, 126.62468824819996, 172.60621037829222, 243.9014136824783, 238.04323390426578, 56.231523693156824, 273.6136353592925, 206.00219791604633, 87.77483957805487, 111.47357893187576, 128.07054051397932, 85.1400237935525, 85.05955772508042, 268.2085113570548, 328.8815410492211 ], "zero": [ 0.04637488241806467, 0.0458627546682843, 0.047520482970100704, 0.04287721014448125, 0.03485312286468901, 0.04580666210008624, 0.0467556633196303, 0.04658407173415558, 0.04860531658655871, 0.044633571907001394, 0.046945880808124986, 0.043408732806770094, 0.03278689557118004, 0.04413085443680665, 0.0477195592395249, 0.041570551875951246, 0.04546740978906095, 0.04370367033815804, 0.05369712454450658, 0.04932730852443583, 0.0472001459889074, 0.05010190017546002, 0.0471294259599172, 0.04166845577978863 ] }, "crps": 5.942048521240609, "crpss": -0.06596036428335772, "rps": 0.5495636154512566, "rpss": -0.21299016130187742, "mean_bias_mm": -0.00027761876775430255, "mean_mae_mm": 8.342082562285677, "mean_rmse_mm": 15.964808231819168, "spread_error_ratio": 0.8258530558158974, "zero_fraction": 0.0451971522729852, "correlation": 0.008309009787396902, "pit_histogram": [ 0.33216, 0.0219, 0.02709, 0.03611, 0.04286, 0.05173, 0.07799, 0.10499, 0.16363, 0.14155 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.6846584628758894 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 4.410760559062509, 4.32957573046697, 6.419346589241487, 2.10367040970021, 26.177611871396692, 2.0245407779039097, 2.2360232399066593, 2.5714070028051386, 5.94968219104913, 1.9115354174256103, 17.682182688168773, 3.3857567374495603, 2.9944283377043956, 4.461937585691402, 2.128478972620075, 6.619296512286511, 6.814386365825735, 2.922361905712335, 3.310837301715733, 2.7083309394462836, 3.188548805541612, 3.4529369102684133, 4.166138717320774, 2.757310361862866 ], "crps_clim": [ 2.4548094454165224, 2.4172161936748946, 5.333194544027777, 1.8549628212328, 34.12225179677904, 1.8644358450759109, 2.122993377234286, 2.4401382645813325, 5.73783658336709, 2.3217318677782153, 15.529706680297545, 3.9621897190875477, 1.8639890286330005, 3.876280862498442, 2.06925731997254, 7.631461938517677, 6.263162085572975, 2.1837307589862482, 2.5462616594235836, 3.4498462746206284, 2.1833797898673692, 2.4890121894953605, 2.173582577005678, 2.0020724813943143 ], "rps": [ 1.0623895035238236, 1.0275455535471594, 0.6112681689300689, 0.5941896064723399, 0.19140367222223664, 0.6443602887058202, 0.6010967701106438, 0.6245484962544554, 0.4660438345786785, 0.24431351035988383, 0.5910849482884097, 0.35375824806280326, 0.4628546496783513, 0.5669503904941081, 0.37738122488974307, 0.36204898216257336, 0.615247226520879, 0.6872906809235322, 0.8770682433106713, 0.37389045691711176, 0.89699617582168, 0.7465053847959588, 0.4649386508781527, 0.50261613492842 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5271012391842729, 0.5237026472803199, 0.4726651024187634, 0.4183814425674277, 0.5463137996219282, 0.3948310596898503, 0.4065592098294793, 0.42831468140896223, 0.49352864345894915, 0.3706979572196848, 0.5445864342119232, 0.4920445653961977, 0.3565574386141641, 0.3975457684832652, 0.35150037945920126, 0.5287991707856597, 0.48528999945591406, 0.42598320924629246, 0.518005444784471, 0.4652291028680146, 0.5021412621347012, 0.4343952625071855, 0.40487741585469383, 0.3925124516437722 ], "bias": [ 6.895779280878206, 8.439082154721836, -5.73228489032363, 2.670304128611518, -30.086169884487344, 3.193362497153975, 2.9274197849620722, 2.822476879940167, -4.422859025040088, 2.253418033602366, -19.43117516773792, -2.0938716890344944, 6.1704000402185075, 1.189264724018804, 0.5507104807022929, -5.96719121531663, -5.7394368013182495, 4.755709606937306, 5.226710368706362, -0.7484748300474188, 5.506232713283161, 5.721139883582006, 8.82388999531035, 6.454707047434344 ], "mae": [ 6.939432944778025, 8.447264675134234, 7.0063063522283064, 3.27842751067381, 30.265793446493184, 3.6326403927345443, 3.064065279206922, 4.567542300724672, 6.514337725829398, 3.2406039430786846, 19.431909289448253, 4.038573870063804, 6.190673350915765, 7.364461930036574, 2.7547026562016947, 6.406803092666174, 8.223286176749967, 4.89357915131198, 5.249860678444748, 3.1041200946331506, 5.5275754021283365, 5.783372713996222, 8.944443039328366, 6.915836802563959 ], "mse": [ 152.18151328455676, 215.07080018838585, 384.38799580053956, 32.676138784010924, 2186.87138060056, 38.51290646927036, 33.26102351213852, 62.22534559104776, 184.82393800405663, 44.833209995027104, 889.6336002474549, 76.0000074567436, 134.86680756135294, 217.99817390400497, 37.970350108188605, 153.07244856856872, 342.806265421198, 66.97578624398294, 85.18985928183726, 30.289595193259693, 83.31075631663963, 106.69899818072922, 255.1728759190678, 117.06055933398564 ], "var": [ 93.8392155618356, 339.8457716472149, 100.32920103238659, 59.734515206513294, 463.2625193211575, 84.54098607470989, 23.15303293558813, 165.34351995213743, 301.17289409586846, 135.9496684744626, 72.34753017433815, 116.93584666269042, 200.13238757990285, 279.2028186751426, 21.690956463894462, 397.84038607678303, 120.85467312314005, 72.20317413151633, 101.97285226915739, 138.04119595833762, 82.95524932082931, 109.01219249846483, 387.6636389368122, 442.83127725833094 ], "zero": [ 0.04578190894518404, 0.041811690171973226, 0.04772935935161699, 0.04884479158280952, 0.02920107352395617, 0.03539606418524166, 0.048847545255528375, 0.04438412088718659, 0.04772763615092695, 0.04055475470893552, 0.04863985304822965, 0.04452291393126044, 0.03783718616454479, 0.03023972760140823, 0.04703662903464645, 0.031149095463590598, 0.04104064021042382, 0.043065305192115585, 0.054495953973562536, 0.050240637698272576, 0.04257134367995069, 0.05100410524549778, 0.040276330438530586, 0.042293452243224935 ] }, "crps": 5.196961913773865, "crpss": -0.04906560598047993, "rps": 0.5810746167657294, "rpss": -0.28159804988288206, "mean_bias_mm": -0.025868995135104322, "mean_mae_mm": 7.157733867473783, "mean_rmse_mm": 15.721389802811391, "spread_error_ratio": 0.8524819184514092, "zero_fraction": 0.04311217161202573, "correlation": 0.13927261825304196, "pit_histogram": [ 0.33282, 0.00551, 0.00826, 0.01375, 0.02152, 0.04043, 0.08388, 0.14047, 0.2297, 0.12366 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.853283329738541 } }, "operational": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 3.4270747022951324, 4.463906313994474, 4.056816998363489, 2.9536228351211817, 8.63463941814088, 2.7560690250865796, 4.574040173395895, 3.436189385574783 ], "crps_clim": [ 3.000358402837215, 3.2118104787747215, 4.432332626338175, 2.616293468105364, 7.502465706182092, 2.7696475536717284, 4.029967303787228, 2.9260298617309384 ], "rps": [ 0.7636414725376237, 0.8049661752759252, 0.3786988600127391, 0.6216693002945619, 0.48770540333747603, 0.4219534084826065, 0.49128941666710396, 0.706146099811618 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5137613090872692, 0.49705239615939123, 0.40610073525670304, 0.44669601338418186, 0.4481977724282379, 0.39955792469123536, 0.39062127201913327, 0.49615040098932883 ], "bias": [ 5.348518277478365, 8.745739462089933, -2.0294925629714875, 3.731487162658478, -8.331980061118418, 3.1067175749041662, 5.569386222409195, 5.661501802317662 ], "mae": [ 5.379028060249524, 8.766435705058637, 5.266149217538414, 4.795975934986984, 9.849405625263271, 4.607587542178596, 8.56908332845179, 5.732619028184283 ], "mse": [ 76.30524714260234, 178.94718473814123, 127.96266269888842, 62.7179439259777, 336.5881536534683, 57.14798346142986, 157.55301721527465, 80.82059906676076 ], "var": [ 55.61038477191509, 270.10882482343794, 129.09974477464962, 77.7883408460809, 124.09939773920222, 108.67745309409243, 501.85233116697583, 75.64390227489514 ], "zero": [ 0.05115109797465205, 0.04855201133891876, 0.04350317435195333, 0.04759669813572373, 0.04670199434090498, 0.04726009110129646, 0.03665802296229717, 0.049941835183796586 ] }, "crps": 4.287794856496552, "crpss": -0.12507675826126596, "rps": 0.5845087670524569, "rpss": -0.29958060672651343, "mean_bias_mm": 2.7252347347209867, "mean_mae_mm": 6.620785555238937, "mean_rmse_mm": 11.60841716117309, "spread_error_ratio": 1.1160937193027294, "zero_fraction": 0.046420615673692885, "correlation": 0.1680819041338833, "pit_histogram": [ 0.39215, 0.02783, 0.03339, 0.03798, 0.0408, 0.04865, 0.06369, 0.08939, 0.15047, 0.11566 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.7165439291966152 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 3.295139943954487, 3.5675867309094773, 5.176515894588561, 2.6190458271416044, 9.65034827921464, 2.1621194821166347, 3.8652270275353073, 3.1698537453697657 ], "crps_clim": [ 2.366231987002849, 2.259909659422711, 5.567918347623332, 1.9966771549125995, 8.330258482082852, 1.9477425770778494, 3.4305474768916633, 2.1733161564516763 ], "rps": [ 1.0104890563529225, 0.857723887061665, 0.4260401292491939, 0.7272937910686542, 0.4430067177375827, 0.3749995697893288, 0.48304249412771755, 0.7509072170629938 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5473323710222779, 0.45950888532469003, 0.47310561454117583, 0.451258434482434, 0.43752408372393053, 0.3769753182133201, 0.34410807043894076, 0.45220364528394885 ], "bias": [ 4.6805946677147015, 6.923303026458153, -4.351373335001291, 3.885964480574615, -9.530625642214801, 3.066616524183954, 8.079581870145804, 5.198844065825999 ], "mae": [ 4.7436990355492785, 6.9484598214451845, 6.232067500760062, 4.054274988933502, 11.054100006312497, 3.5457347332382954, 8.914805809747989, 5.22976892043143 ], "mse": [ 66.61951847380507, 137.81603684598832, 206.7445406396655, 48.53682671534064, 517.5943546343165, 43.41112888085612, 179.2467006147054, 77.44214629067693 ], "var": [ 42.848060215843056, 212.85254033897326, 158.83911818094222, 52.12245835960613, 118.02326424587476, 75.72704298641291, 728.3418574681933, 68.03115011804762 ], "zero": [ 0.04925627114768956, 0.04795887232243956, 0.0372325190435796, 0.044885679756375835, 0.04259769221770908, 0.04461170843532542, 0.019775249337648133, 0.046250788447156715 ] }, "crps": 4.1882296163538095, "crpss": -0.19354227014824144, "rps": 0.6341878578062573, "rpss": -0.43237700126441747, "mean_bias_mm": 2.2441132072108916, "mean_mae_mm": 6.340363852052279, "mean_rmse_mm": 12.63631301594414, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0679045453320197, "zero_fraction": 0.041571097588490494, "correlation": 0.09488037035517015, "pit_histogram": [ 0.38506, 0.01597, 0.01693, 0.01823, 0.0276, 0.0331, 0.05706, 0.11638, 0.24167, 0.08801 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.8862183416232601 } }, "full": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 4.640643144423352, 4.711373795470827, 13.461169155642388, 6.363741921432994, 21.084317612919552, 3.5337372022485956, 2.6468358921600803, 3.421598915550103, 7.277077001278818, 3.4508612987930043, 15.656250411498077, 4.1384436339432895, 3.4183473119937213, 4.697970914447219, 4.762761860297357, 8.381422279524552, 5.01948789746011, 2.7161959166202334, 2.87904603509142, 3.037856261569338, 2.379157353681491, 3.036624580819807, 3.858360970157617, 3.792985827725286, 3.032040648382356, 4.102481872833477, 4.181422615070372, 2.550594203109597, 9.128260865623263, 2.57282734066699, 4.340352285992842, 3.012915508403622 ], "crps_clim": [ 2.6897179853589925, 2.867287610747155, 11.613583597576943, 5.886197674812449, 27.77500554826608, 3.3326847383568015, 2.8099124904438204, 2.624493357547262, 7.71221722782229, 3.8123457628295836, 14.271810450341063, 4.481516504313957, 2.329174473258749, 4.367684268620377, 4.603049696222213, 8.657359289497048, 4.649450179185341, 2.4755201422145108, 2.7360868719092664, 3.4495472657845374, 2.254603487223936, 2.505246979400119, 3.1059697413108407, 2.855418618210857, 2.766727211701212, 2.9690284184817233, 4.63923895270541, 2.3781737857801595, 8.084302871907116, 2.606734429626978, 4.181426375823429, 2.68056081509455 ], "rps": [ 0.8552477570607433, 0.9077336791028124, 0.6191100610276652, 0.45763001912151313, 0.24766972309989677, 0.5145334210795227, 0.5985483262344619, 0.6313539064058276, 0.43510263578885106, 0.39195810439453416, 0.5310169267628198, 0.3997109801591942, 0.47730136541236223, 0.4593096405217883, 0.4197130305754606, 0.481774098291128, 0.5141052679021342, 0.4901979260016714, 0.6923191774791732, 0.3830096031101134, 0.5432955190883121, 0.5941837677185768, 0.37588078149825876, 0.6367189939974095, 0.728014908082903, 0.8009531563971846, 0.3603425994827797, 0.5722454488453016, 0.48767355204514157, 0.41284838821100506, 0.4784633005886006, 0.682418778501039 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.49041507783712296, 0.5369376306368444, 0.5100667474154729, 0.4521868075526217, 0.5217072761921506, 0.4133935720112422, 0.47234840051899624, 0.43488625630302596, 0.5255484732176574, 0.43690918492602165, 0.5252437168376151, 0.45828462824902266, 0.38486514853319226, 0.4081996460632345, 0.40282801997469403, 0.5125391329245191, 0.44742012622339855, 0.39216921729503385, 0.5031366769351334, 0.41349098916290067, 0.4059993484819169, 0.41024969837800246, 0.3849070120945385, 0.44180910334017454, 0.4984255550790732, 0.4983306583397526, 0.40315870128184617, 0.42477518647713974, 0.4628459104807814, 0.3911057460601312, 0.4012825990880415, 0.4936916796322727 ], "bias": [ 8.619909557320804, 9.226067303990671, -14.408805172704824, -5.198337837329092, -23.34527841141577, -0.9755873584724378, 3.1335073187469984, 6.597519567590533, -7.285599560492974, -0.20939363198041164, -17.196600066679988, -1.137819286302818, 7.268072911992266, -1.9545463613155298, -3.081836708141981, -8.097122733887458, -0.8986103150012439, 3.7778998648976647, 4.801509394210689, 0.07264670439755924, 4.330875288889358, 5.261339525832476, 5.765602693631373, 8.042554837943406, 4.8781652829651625, 8.332459020031212, -2.7941994913374018, 3.196631661050649, -9.253596953730048, 2.5395428368098196, 4.99797560011034, 5.1755567581656035 ], "mae": [ 8.653708324980633, 9.231874086773534, 15.01339400484397, 7.816776281969008, 24.984054930068595, 4.689322575880618, 3.951843046421965, 7.351935055817441, 8.259065131142863, 4.75909724155561, 17.734094690650988, 5.3796755467054655, 7.468697870595968, 6.286502802764441, 5.898067197858058, 9.348693398191765, 7.253519751198904, 4.6583622715196675, 5.01600005235231, 4.180829005384052, 4.486227196266012, 5.357319890124303, 7.174562343910946, 8.252579832037114, 4.912566163029655, 8.352458535151523, 5.298389992998169, 4.2989644091237835, 10.268187158691799, 4.144544384713131, 8.14009698322403, 5.232982745370774 ], "mse": [ 180.25243644431234, 215.67995294793263, 875.2128700081105, 215.5291918036851, 1579.2198239138515, 57.68952132417483, 45.77804163363827, 126.44504003861955, 196.7205097198788, 75.77269770797297, 829.566556155336, 97.03253176616168, 141.11307298760076, 162.4337700165296, 138.7475897272549, 271.13233456198014, 190.9980645342197, 54.47983358936281, 71.62276950291465, 50.32570843213437, 52.86109938072914, 82.66318385640722, 167.56646109953687, 151.678993042895, 65.66912322370499, 165.14745606291214, 138.29424762637257, 52.175735358946405, 372.46661631849554, 49.00768334830823, 143.41653514478458, 68.82979148936624 ], "var": [ 157.7717857512077, 274.85567536342734, 119.5523523332377, 63.1781860625347, 398.79175207079857, 70.52274129675885, 30.8235618893126, 229.7368188052255, 225.48301966566606, 132.26082499763257, 123.42026472367283, 165.85553580840244, 238.79710825058348, 229.35246085454088, 54.941337724901544, 265.02407160966874, 193.86806993812928, 83.66394889914908, 106.86890616846591, 121.96418761038429, 82.22740769218592, 82.27270309447657, 256.83403768818386, 315.0039734258967, 53.338452258791776, 263.0897321264465, 125.58061911599404, 74.90348478174441, 118.12426890561187, 105.03425327400421, 497.4747334326732, 72.03412397647669 ], "zero": [ 0.046013576290757495, 0.046049183933734424, 0.04746437922085844, 0.043404611473237376, 0.03250557601542726, 0.04377820677492022, 0.048017886907967586, 0.04744002092472506, 0.04949689720176109, 0.04429815405475946, 0.04785636358657711, 0.04422955610325693, 0.03644543027002807, 0.0440016395320717, 0.046936945403225426, 0.04139899920700007, 0.04536756660264465, 0.04420648988197272, 0.053095381764548574, 0.04902667229088707, 0.049139365913940705, 0.04984816497688078, 0.04642059989090141, 0.042881742631375765, 0.05158841449366225, 0.04861864653437438, 0.04266389371657672, 0.0485620703261643, 0.047271460439566974, 0.0481764732490971, 0.03225459870065327, 0.04958880930572706 ] }, "crps": 5.352723829213492, "crpss": -0.04333919537458919, "rps": 0.5368870263746308, "rpss": -0.18820092636659647, "mean_bias_mm": 0.005640694993268913, "mean_mae_mm": 7.620449778166159, "mean_rmse_mm": 14.880281880277137, "spread_error_ratio": 0.8675318119021505, "zero_fraction": 0.04556399305060255, "correlation": 0.04325698326510518, "pit_histogram": [ 0.32249, 0.02579, 0.03123, 0.03954, 0.04543, 0.0517, 0.07382, 0.10476, 0.16573, 0.1395 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.664959453834105 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 3.860689386055378, 3.7732206368429955, 6.567946864908748, 1.791646607781622, 26.534436471465316, 1.7487688580830179, 1.893605612277471, 2.382887239517422, 6.122210346614745, 1.8174829489412643, 17.992869721802645, 3.587638695485394, 2.58012185960919, 4.09485191538342, 1.9593857481026489, 6.930922200656159, 6.901481665966591, 2.5115451866660186, 2.806723858611693, 2.940289681968078, 2.7047046769939604, 2.9740878943558564, 3.800293765762969, 2.313573442054866, 2.9953054962266843, 3.3073890463900986, 5.436142520156391, 2.3186727325440954, 10.151784127165255, 2.068591641078362, 3.6836859288383765, 2.8764106603390407 ], "crps_clim": [ 2.1962156929740804, 2.1788012116298163, 5.48867715919352, 1.7773343754893767, 34.32641868083757, 1.8627034830071907, 1.9715211508068933, 2.4850922338242754, 5.825734906672177, 2.4213405279615716, 15.788972303238339, 4.131178922483057, 1.7605249281308137, 3.8097412938741515, 2.031828268076108, 7.918858186445213, 6.382316217886629, 2.0199351210734884, 2.268887809680827, 3.672694877557107, 1.9649460420847091, 2.2337494697367615, 2.0965498141099683, 1.8861829698011934, 2.2991833116108906, 2.179019211557004, 5.967272104997054, 1.9197227040545963, 8.917885769487894, 1.949950438310964, 3.6326875965041756, 2.091802235366322 ], "rps": [ 1.0248377246195897, 0.9751543182609879, 0.6240527511730903, 0.4722069283303386, 0.19269865574781303, 0.5744359683260454, 0.528749293601514, 0.5813028222349679, 0.4841318948602653, 0.2489601510880425, 0.6192872039246762, 0.3720347532053641, 0.37817642707800947, 0.5078264445621686, 0.319816709251074, 0.38888835511804676, 0.6098166998103705, 0.6793268820055268, 0.8806611338096827, 0.3987983158804326, 0.8612875822875875, 0.7441904245082438, 0.4028955997027527, 0.41053154287722154, 0.9782654580481959, 0.8438945460911951, 0.4176541088900742, 0.6949736144977454, 0.41789780253880826, 0.35398202863455763, 0.4754696511838241, 0.705603664412212 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5381511480265782, 0.5320773657724542, 0.49130303512889106, 0.38498928938989757, 0.5629552549427681, 0.38290325595556074, 0.3789331388282408, 0.4247100795822977, 0.5050165255638045, 0.3889502709540875, 0.5619307137731465, 0.5113363017784888, 0.34719627842747985, 0.37617173880982513, 0.3204093918893131, 0.5500282293506343, 0.49836540383658773, 0.43075767900875145, 0.5392014406556627, 0.46954411522421585, 0.5074149366392898, 0.43384618252591467, 0.40967831680734257, 0.35129371669777265, 0.556013264324054, 0.4676500824441632, 0.4913710435949474, 0.4477522470171603, 0.4328472498436856, 0.3755117997097963, 0.35728991623881007, 0.43983412768140073 ], "bias": [ 6.277352956774058, 7.75615791282197, -6.19654577304392, 2.130652592903457, -30.386364834420448, 2.600827988742993, 2.4042026539272583, 2.193908233759678, -5.0159506324528165, 1.6656796456808323, -19.74460300170117, -2.664710490767671, 5.525166717012901, 0.5897095208781465, 0.03944437164599786, -6.499726294853324, -6.271258677665859, 4.148013646059571, 4.650291733969542, -1.3206930852943968, 4.897329883409932, 5.122539662625351, 8.042207468550378, 5.74368234014928, 4.323756791837936, 6.56640185006351, -5.062719018632033, 3.4909980017287867, -10.371523513327993, 2.6421616909510357, 7.734345540769755, 4.822555778238208 ], "mae": [ 6.330099945893751, 7.762913683948041, 7.168174539383262, 2.8888387552558625, 30.560884581003336, 3.1677480113857026, 2.6236681686806484, 4.055409219932988, 6.528750658211373, 2.915271933083183, 19.745132369270316, 4.099383581605142, 5.575948623854865, 6.809687750324388, 2.4756776608221944, 6.803100296588566, 8.189967321935018, 4.324030332060584, 4.6804195243910875, 3.3663314370099773, 4.921328136637697, 5.189817410158867, 8.169483777538758, 6.259210324547396, 4.3993406341830115, 6.59485078587031, 6.487487883015288, 3.686766043123379, 11.522189390735946, 3.26402448710061, 8.609627327548456, 4.855845990221397 ], "mse": [ 133.51362459625082, 191.11382792048667, 391.0222607521257, 26.95415361318895, 2225.2493104027626, 31.56563179272436, 27.657200379283896, 52.664071028499436, 188.5984438575989, 37.745915059726315, 914.1428846529246, 80.8506458040746, 117.76690318566412, 207.95452307026366, 36.17622655418425, 169.33440264301944, 348.9243515016462, 54.59082946252422, 71.94172659261824, 35.229147547039794, 69.59348155751611, 91.93453045501505, 229.43393051891957, 99.75601499218891, 60.43261425467576, 130.14818680939206, 224.28476351255028, 42.329848724278925, 566.54480487061, 39.464518696686824, 167.94905192922377, 70.65908079218829 ], "var": [ 91.83011633574132, 328.5605377566416, 97.07837288791131, 57.830699737332516, 467.69697319628796, 81.95267732836771, 22.459276041941287, 158.367143160838, 279.3072701193775, 133.39412098603023, 71.11711028265847, 112.05194247813562, 194.7224382196954, 271.72736619599493, 21.10731023947324, 390.1318706970575, 114.33204762084654, 68.562178130773, 98.3790009826042, 131.4615897507032, 79.41323718159303, 105.6706857995105, 372.19027246247117, 423.8917607320234, 41.03807660888918, 204.37000623434568, 154.34615944581424, 49.50419327709935, 112.05439163845793, 73.2252990480535, 729.0570675190119, 65.0737931168688 ], "zero": [ 0.057348142425166185, 0.054983631644597054, 0.06075899013403037, 0.06166163398665668, 0.03512269550520135, 0.045919653756700735, 0.0639563928892975, 0.059290801948702426, 0.06430441505644002, 0.05219184293828544, 0.0629865329986155, 0.05761548945956446, 0.05038134996980649, 0.04473352365180337, 0.06159378925921613, 0.04278929166822795, 0.05636684158507789, 0.05602684160251619, 0.06613143886691514, 0.06403113025306455, 0.059009003246362705, 0.06333194687412763, 0.05295216893785684, 0.057547530648380876, 0.06410471603507484, 0.0624319442534677, 0.04854049915246875, 0.06048684069995562, 0.05465507066090129, 0.0603881730108999, 0.018919285088334716, 0.05806930594462223 ] }, "crps": 4.794667732457681, "crpss": -0.04049729003648439, "rps": 0.5677440455175133, "rpss": -0.2559464191509555, "mean_bias_mm": -0.005209635614345398, "mean_mae_mm": 6.688481580791294, "mean_rmse_mm": 14.932689505253494, "spread_error_ratio": 0.8860430943558166, "zero_fraction": 0.055582216067260576, "correlation": 0.12602329062369835, "pit_histogram": [ 0.31593, 0.00828, 0.0123, 0.01413, 0.02414, 0.03648, 0.07406, 0.14079, 0.24541, 0.12847 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.8612107040004036 } }, "distribution_full": { "ethiopia": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0000000000000016, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.06101186501123388 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0181771524527645, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.48689240770933645 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 1.1622531397747313, "area_mean_abs_log": 1.2681950589962911 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0394323522901867, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.8173996371239967 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9244303369089115, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.31133835141104427 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": 0.03606334161732983 } }, "ondj_domain": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0000000000000002, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.04070184839682467 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0425598534519442, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.7277434468746344 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 1.1424297520902769, "area_mean_abs_log": 1.6966653458871173 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9937224769715153, "area_mean_abs_log": 1.23102079440085 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9752428296604286, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.2483144011124294 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": 0.0555822160672605 } } } }, "vs": { "training": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 4.793250612349903, 4.824711243085319, 13.224772794786526, 6.112413757312354, 20.082784470053138, 3.516728138033313, 2.530628988754362, 3.677134858370958, 7.179301412981662, 3.3888870074645476, 15.235752158009165, 4.005232617090409, 3.6177620524272824, 4.730426218070115, 4.794347421537364, 8.191580472523272, 5.207663985268283, 2.592632886381003, 2.709519779034689, 3.033604133189575, 2.2992438606468197, 2.8985674896063687, 3.900795087259382, 3.729400550890386 ], "crps_clim": [ 3.147316707451114, 3.345505329459557, 10.984966213801052, 5.565431468435425, 27.0718763908127, 3.331872595873229, 3.2339333066026654, 2.898578484108726, 7.306127788484703, 3.578837768945852, 13.61369806885984, 4.185041134572365, 2.552105347257009, 4.271290701634523, 4.644138020744405, 8.101898044577364, 4.707631815249459, 2.7497107572454813, 3.224323436142348, 3.3810268425956997, 2.5984657102999638, 2.914534006884459, 3.0779701844454106, 3.298398263301115 ], "rps": [ 0.8485950845145496, 0.885969042565135, 0.6344680037599932, 0.5103840858487441, 0.25482891300685295, 0.5045882620875677, 0.580195421991689, 0.661853547794326, 0.44665987375233457, 0.3994535850137989, 0.5465637085007699, 0.3967923829841924, 0.5198318095458068, 0.4428148207295325, 0.43491124882307997, 0.48699750455736407, 0.5275608181544028, 0.4737310657702859, 0.6331745451721351, 0.3894050869430058, 0.5522347359929669, 0.6077247997990177, 0.39049965248996543, 0.6465088050700714 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.49730130537920497, 0.5299108646278966, 0.4968209717644765, 0.45140321931037847, 0.5120439289026995, 0.41031169775019555, 0.4779713217459693, 0.4530884207483443, 0.5043277856041234, 0.41692670592375, 0.5103230613419248, 0.4397744822519408, 0.3965890908147674, 0.3999865051869261, 0.4105095348843729, 0.49534705826094655, 0.4525412470698913, 0.40263417109494526, 0.4947135592926832, 0.4107579460380184, 0.4281083679843292, 0.43735476661089284, 0.37946484897479493, 0.465353650018479 ], "bias": [ 9.519391186699727, 10.329238901251522, -14.137572203746561, -5.006838874428404, -21.945976799560853, -0.5612204245213199, 3.1433081565128353, 7.693224105176727, -6.49914841867547, 0.6122396990446992, -16.859205497255672, -0.2233957433192242, 8.342650788148292, -1.2284053345264485, -2.9056914888269385, -7.349772173564695, 0.09656872554199694, 4.25475665555505, 5.063086897651926, 0.8409381416499145, 4.719306233343303, 5.711704262103319, 7.228808352925528, 8.97941505208032 ], "mae": [ 9.524635747510153, 10.333205797640725, 14.833929548121583, 7.6485281871018005, 23.78030459760161, 4.782900135030713, 4.0288908354003325, 8.405574761412662, 7.964141953682792, 4.8578944280999306, 17.335226551821584, 5.390868511312456, 8.462008845094195, 6.569461983243569, 5.971528631790275, 8.670763805277737, 7.937989798148414, 5.167853736365488, 5.29605191646105, 4.315017738162885, 4.877904236653531, 5.756051696474866, 8.295127659326496, 9.162697579313257 ], "mse": [ 220.01564830390325, 270.7364582214216, 869.430913274562, 208.25144848313798, 1454.3663076565053, 58.861633344755425, 44.418165905497396, 166.35946176796682, 184.32581357436484, 75.71445651401626, 804.2081980827788, 95.77140653375668, 184.27501910594137, 162.09809062666096, 140.63125788295193, 241.94137451457735, 210.64696549050615, 62.967830596600066, 74.53613962967627, 50.8572364974488, 57.979282484198094, 90.33398015064091, 213.73542525260586, 183.9942647372229 ], "var": [ 234.69102623057694, 444.0258594461384, 171.37032563539756, 91.83767793157656, 515.9785990435512, 108.94983039995068, 43.64628515343198, 352.34745533230785, 358.9384015242888, 194.7445355053299, 172.86087305688335, 259.1158618488194, 371.968566763113, 356.31735051560156, 84.42170162142415, 406.7576369107311, 313.4250505913716, 129.13218802050756, 161.316347341966, 199.57813150953086, 122.64004559890256, 126.22999278718663, 414.79730661884537, 510.2797914000592 ], "zero": [ 5.381784802531122e-05, 0.00032290503892336997, 0.00042941252429414933, 0.00037632494207169673, 0.0, 0.00032290503892336997, 0.0006216203846240807, 0.0002152703674869962, 0.0012196966020221155, 0.000510889729350905, 0.0012139476889687418, 8.037069851421583e-05, 0.0005659222564614605, 0.00029555937175531873, 0.0007026618707557274, 0.0008333963114741282, 0.00021525071219422842, 0.00026839572375757324, 0.001242819099287762, 0.00029756513892056213, 0.000456717344339254, 0.00032250965481408345, 0.0004305402226668681, 0.00045744914667952374 ] }, "crps": 5.678214249796924, "crpss": -0.018630411474452435, "rps": 0.5323227835361495, "rpss": -0.17493640574436586, "mean_bias_mm": -0.007607908364184605, "mean_mae_mm": 8.307023278377004, "mean_rmse_mm": 15.977140934566089, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0015424483594504, "zero_fraction": 0.0004773311548463101, "correlation": -0.03604672739031584, "pit_histogram": [ 0.42365, 0.02707, 0.03125, 0.03983, 0.04795, 0.05434, 0.06861, 0.07644, 0.09838, 0.13249 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.7122843761060996 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 3.8103965292624378, 3.659040798449402, 6.571467914380303, 1.600906609489625, 25.837080566132542, 1.8533737092231695, 1.5889758127360847, 2.5695083964179815, 6.114889053888584, 1.9718199492613029, 17.752490248806716, 3.546049863268346, 2.6615442221002295, 4.176964161262695, 1.9619519490845352, 6.880068178022596, 6.864210602714392, 2.2586532278178137, 2.4794777349175954, 2.829855897412681, 2.470172572747329, 2.7328402706422916, 3.899237661793265, 2.0972863312656096 ], "crps_clim": [ 2.4548094454165224, 2.4172161936748946, 5.333194544027777, 1.8549628212328, 34.12225179677904, 1.8644358450759109, 2.122993377234286, 2.4401382645813325, 5.73783658336709, 2.3217318677782153, 15.529706680297545, 3.9621897190875477, 1.8639890286330005, 3.876280862498442, 2.06925731997254, 7.631461938517677, 6.263162085572975, 2.1837307589862482, 2.5462616594235836, 3.4498462746206284, 2.1833797898673692, 2.4890121894953605, 2.173582577005678, 2.0020724813943143 ], "rps": [ 1.01825345599309, 0.9757685426383004, 0.6289539339325179, 0.5763880188106956, 0.19659887825913352, 0.6267561594417065, 0.5645195876378517, 0.6222349823252378, 0.4932409727246593, 0.24589174861013355, 0.6319087340076648, 0.3779173371967266, 0.43619284192095514, 0.5420083629381932, 0.3513896032000559, 0.39016408289032584, 0.6283145499246086, 0.6411340877105178, 0.815711641283046, 0.3870473570098345, 0.8421468007261645, 0.6955721686717125, 0.43687645818286014, 0.45398038558299547 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5271012391842729, 0.5237026472803199, 0.4726651024187634, 0.4183814425674277, 0.5463137996219282, 0.3948310596898503, 0.4065592098294793, 0.42831468140896223, 0.49352864345894915, 0.3706979572196848, 0.5445864342119232, 0.4920445653961977, 0.3565574386141641, 0.3975457684832652, 0.35150037945920126, 0.5287991707856597, 0.48528999945591406, 0.42598320924629246, 0.518005444784471, 0.4652291028680146, 0.5021412621347012, 0.4343952625071855, 0.40487741585469383, 0.3925124516437722 ], "bias": [ 6.838192661274039, 8.637007943086214, -6.0244915056374, 2.2507868681528795, -29.696698673349903, 3.0312890078438635, 2.3041583193105963, 2.9331226176355463, -4.378554632594345, 2.45754735920664, -19.59196379554221, -1.986079723886593, 6.353444109088772, 1.3036271090633171, 0.04775497260676113, -5.621015936388168, -5.712449226306051, 4.434238813396778, 4.806548317730792, -0.6300117723055249, 5.230195904568508, 5.485044960370894, 9.632605510803394, 6.68200761921553 ], "mae": [ 6.838600424190937, 8.63734027081452, 7.167144547310335, 2.919170512866372, 29.731996999885084, 3.5109495851581807, 2.446645154614224, 4.6834005077890115, 6.4694768395886175, 3.37834037965417, 19.60414581762605, 4.154919580310674, 6.37337510868471, 7.375643809758375, 2.5360172100574676, 6.050465115213556, 8.37985699591719, 4.577484202158869, 4.811285398753956, 3.1032624051056743, 5.230195904568508, 5.492623576502831, 9.730622347393417, 7.136505753726816 ], "mse": [ 150.67186209741104, 231.21101299729378, 399.82345472618977, 25.73134219833458, 2113.432570182015, 37.147134913154574, 21.092482291193143, 67.79332864458829, 186.39706730351708, 49.16422342159792, 908.9399242577265, 78.92372283866298, 151.96985422942896, 215.99379759355972, 38.87539658415406, 140.64377926568622, 351.3586523159551, 56.320504350917766, 69.74096221539988, 30.479059574328907, 73.17181913719746, 96.23204354878668, 300.04864251482815, 124.99710990462795 ], "var": [ 138.86907624824414, 527.3817947169402, 147.23106831509722, 91.27928946279408, 531.8329622816394, 124.97952540360806, 33.379453407824016, 247.53562343687827, 460.09238271659984, 200.28876948136434, 107.92836244012813, 181.18390485829707, 307.819540692852, 401.5988242521065, 35.67889142137842, 587.6763700563797, 177.51530288272795, 110.53065976940997, 150.3084604907697, 221.4238831597003, 122.31715894049299, 163.43608869149986, 606.1090045116122, 690.2653475461278 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007678512088988467, 0.0, 0.0019545303499243585, 0.0, 0.0006980465535444062, 0.0, 0.0002792186214177625, 0.0, 0.0007678512088988467, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0011866791410254905, 0.0003490232767722031, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 4.92451092754573, "crpss": 0.005931710472787177, "rps": 0.5657904454841245, "rpss": -0.24788781105398816, "mean_bias_mm": -0.050570548860652854, "mean_mae_mm": 7.097477851985398, "mean_rmse_mm": 15.705837220476548, "spread_error_ratio": 1.037024878986868, "zero_fraction": 0.0002501333483534131, "correlation": 0.03051954047253755, "pit_histogram": [ 0.51315, 0.00694, 0.01198, 0.02036, 0.03421, 0.05357, 0.07015, 0.08274, 0.08908, 0.11782 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.8619390451711161 } }, "operational": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 2.5782013031872, 3.74789013259488, 4.046439376032824, 2.4068380756364527, 8.791258946126636, 2.4801024073101616, 4.796025381536925, 2.625627358914405 ], "crps_clim": [ 3.000358402837215, 3.2118104787747215, 4.432332626338175, 2.616293468105364, 7.502465706182092, 2.7696475536717284, 4.029967303787228, 2.9260298617309384 ], "rps": [ 0.6939459909359467, 0.7457023293333631, 0.3686858722716162, 0.5803173160801012, 0.4920796008153625, 0.4068577193299985, 0.46412027549038537, 0.6367797304937866 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5137613090872692, 0.49705239615939123, 0.40610073525670304, 0.44669601338418186, 0.4481977724282379, 0.39955792469123536, 0.39062127201913327, 0.49615040098932883 ], "bias": [ 4.877877483309309, 8.715561693621746, -2.077315141484966, 3.2905080936198443, -8.573229893334933, 2.7919613405024313, 6.726138768808943, 5.250768409267816 ], "mae": [ 4.8826395336067145, 8.726046838207534, 5.165078576606309, 4.478612573897951, 9.94558118496623, 4.346940939648611, 9.516233967387224, 5.317527629068915 ], "mse": [ 59.45044967464832, 176.32511535292144, 122.77470741873317, 54.03566915349092, 343.37174717092176, 50.41527431263278, 204.31502804676595, 66.15471691413012 ], "var": [ 80.45681850202932, 389.28267835439425, 191.30283333345184, 112.81129887575993, 181.2529617742041, 161.61811646459142, 747.92038078275, 107.69995034003028 ], "zero": [ 0.0006359656244043607, 0.0008078430228720856, 0.000292324860794165, 0.0005303290946833593, 0.0004247122427829884, 0.0007541892753780455, 0.00015874806053116627, 0.0008196912239881913 ] }, "crps": 3.9340478726674357, "crpss": -0.03225690023840522, "rps": 0.5485611043438201, "rpss": -0.21965556890565607, "mean_bias_mm": 2.625283844288774, "mean_mae_mm": 6.547332655423686, "mean_rmse_mm": 11.601954081340374, "spread_error_ratio": 1.3533661511418265, "zero_fraction": 0.0005529754256792952, "correlation": 0.16861949386498384, "pit_histogram": [ 0.47329, 0.03224, 0.03874, 0.04372, 0.04416, 0.05023, 0.05725, 0.06527, 0.07893, 0.11616 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.7789154850470252 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 2.5104525241822286, 2.8664127557034664, 5.16809359593869, 2.065293988521677, 9.723791472641693, 1.8339476665359606, 4.168636311799193, 2.4238642074898293 ], "crps_clim": [ 2.366231987002849, 2.259909659422711, 5.567918347623332, 1.9966771549125995, 8.330258482082852, 1.9477425770778494, 3.4305474768916633, 2.1733161564516763 ], "rps": [ 0.9393962614610345, 0.7867251474906202, 0.40998519439010583, 0.6784147363980603, 0.4589086182895364, 0.3541990353367277, 0.46847528391515286, 0.6727975504363102 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5473323710222779, 0.45950888532469003, 0.47310561454117583, 0.451258434482434, 0.43752408372393053, 0.3769753182133201, 0.34410807043894076, 0.45220364528394885 ], "bias": [ 4.234039843730666, 6.901796612821219, -4.322269772424871, 3.446254686353961, -9.748525962920514, 2.711336449619073, 9.505417957096803, 4.854728291608894 ], "mae": [ 4.241424379431504, 6.902327109453488, 6.103386289341891, 3.6961257349105248, 11.211459371467857, 3.2397679028024893, 10.029157188156605, 4.879349362413709 ], "mse": [ 51.500029481772124, 134.2591900654969, 196.94384352754386, 39.77604545476291, 528.2367139346844, 36.68127109033473, 243.9929237313656, 65.30836122797899 ], "var": [ 62.53233919277888, 318.90920197948753, 233.3667140309586, 76.75045354504162, 174.0341014622165, 112.48606327117264, 1064.375680219097, 96.48418369690398 ], "zero": [ 0.0008212312394640072, 0.0007527953028420067, 0.0005132695246650045, 0.000684359366220006, 0.0005817054612870051, 0.0007185773345310063, 0.0001026539049330009, 0.0005817054612870051 ] }, "crps": 3.845061565351592, "crpss": -0.09574782902299317, "rps": 0.5961127284646934, "rpss": -0.34638049578467167, "mean_bias_mm": 2.1978472632356536, "mean_mae_mm": 6.287874667247259, "mean_rmse_mm": 12.731350961867419, "spread_error_ratio": 1.284339054967472, "zero_fraction": 0.0005945371994036302, "correlation": 0.09465927663963136, "pit_histogram": [ 0.564, 0.02015, 0.02162, 0.01627, 0.0271, 0.03375, 0.05487, 0.06793, 0.08891, 0.10538 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.9387758394853558 } }, "full": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 4.238650199241996, 4.276834891420762, 13.508005553271879, 6.290132420568301, 20.654015030773405, 3.498229573258314, 2.1804338992564913, 3.276882234127838, 7.375599255516228, 3.508086896504214, 15.651989951091174, 4.18260114942817, 3.2669700870183394, 4.7067132213903955, 4.673207457189264, 8.555327582952632, 5.032601584037579, 2.2723573185064865, 2.3018403157869094, 3.0245194399183264, 1.9773523099748553, 2.5198196538002375, 3.6983637842650303, 3.3153894866026468, 2.4204195269993143, 3.5636557683725556, 4.179989095493293, 2.1752068818502286, 9.263447005421233, 2.369343027968851, 4.606573533785829, 2.421566069123842 ], "crps_clim": [ 2.6897179853589925, 2.867287610747155, 11.613583597576943, 5.886197674812449, 27.77500554826608, 3.3326847383568015, 2.8099124904438204, 2.624493357547262, 7.71221722782229, 3.8123457628295836, 14.271810450341063, 4.481516504313957, 2.329174473258749, 4.367684268620377, 4.603049696222213, 8.657359289497048, 4.649450179185341, 2.4755201422145108, 2.7360868719092664, 3.4495472657845374, 2.254603487223936, 2.505246979400119, 3.1059697413108407, 2.855418618210857, 2.766727211701212, 2.9690284184817233, 4.63923895270541, 2.3781737857801595, 8.084302871907116, 2.606734429626978, 4.181426375823429, 2.68056081509455 ], "rps": [ 0.8278828543380481, 0.8854961808473492, 0.6081055588821032, 0.4700706868686057, 0.24381119001619123, 0.4876758416572495, 0.5711836536064318, 0.6262568195541772, 0.44108872263086374, 0.408667438717472, 0.5385626192156246, 0.40652730586423, 0.4868326007984877, 0.4357983846742232, 0.3997102106799507, 0.5016281952962224, 0.4957575579949066, 0.4529184084894147, 0.6523618134762283, 0.38085368165735084, 0.50983063760093, 0.5648804902594186, 0.36848521157785713, 0.6186628081395041, 0.6816891657997045, 0.7543478426607874, 0.3570046822255023, 0.546254176088601, 0.48612154955480835, 0.4096567992529652, 0.45155773025327955, 0.6331783422191083 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.49041507783712296, 0.5369376306368444, 0.5100667474154729, 0.4521868075526217, 0.5217072761921506, 0.4133935720112422, 0.47234840051899624, 0.43488625630302596, 0.5255484732176574, 0.43690918492602165, 0.5252437168376151, 0.45828462824902266, 0.38486514853319226, 0.4081996460632345, 0.40282801997469403, 0.5125391329245191, 0.44742012622339855, 0.39216921729503385, 0.5031366769351334, 0.41349098916290067, 0.4059993484819169, 0.41024969837800246, 0.3849070120945385, 0.44180910334017454, 0.4984255550790732, 0.4983306583397526, 0.40315870128184617, 0.42477518647713974, 0.4628459104807814, 0.3911057460601312, 0.4012825990880415, 0.4936916796322727 ], "bias": [ 8.702410473342916, 9.419765321900593, -14.572762700163658, -5.469592072999402, -22.681648422862956, -1.124176323120919, 2.680101354140238, 6.787410540744469, -7.23411117129859, -0.09545024644286172, -17.248015875642455, -0.9741416664102827, 7.529241340270714, -1.916416485439558, -3.348810468324838, -8.014327870780145, -0.7270155644691602, 3.5765048607409753, 4.488102096136344, 0.1092183557286147, 4.1025648703333015, 5.073232036138583, 6.174136724526025, 8.117140541881287, 4.548013944059239, 8.32678657686819, -2.820396338413912, 2.8759302719276856, -9.412471491598133, 2.3179643166035633, 6.186258910678614, 4.876330804912073 ], "mae": [ 8.70943417907151, 9.422937587724952, 15.146873042957292, 7.815297102574031, 24.428574830596745, 4.604398841146723, 3.584983397600277, 7.539018155609268, 8.205712813800105, 4.830657147536289, 17.782486618887834, 5.482402541275364, 7.728370029042962, 6.284684037900045, 5.791197479029657, 9.255831693945995, 7.390618047671822, 4.470237296676431, 4.696527487108951, 4.1743131976545875, 4.26076869893466, 5.1442649044710915, 7.479917193023303, 8.318980561581139, 4.552938061481563, 8.335472127475043, 5.22499781830278, 4.076075042260981, 10.350996411776576, 3.974461069276161, 9.051372303427167, 4.929359467031532 ], "mse": [ 185.91482922114395, 229.87124641890685, 890.8486258179228, 218.62021411607302, 1514.0873908403573, 56.99944694658439, 37.22005077550006, 135.15027967005213, 195.92170414939943, 77.34961311264408, 837.1382719329067, 100.98742135432323, 158.54213548677924, 160.6000007244996, 138.5238530974845, 268.5510559419254, 196.83601361281274, 48.33173770161799, 60.97301199308056, 50.08328601238657, 46.52747158349108, 75.24493035279319, 186.18605767580277, 154.11065890246272, 53.67730574709157, 163.87832362718464, 133.70962414434715, 46.31993144901473, 378.0983498182945, 44.19531797052169, 186.30312441066525, 58.30279517089249 ], "var": [ 208.98154194119692, 384.4024051823753, 153.20270465510094, 82.12369387454187, 484.22437421496795, 96.76929174842275, 39.91476356476301, 309.0917581090216, 302.7305343392986, 173.74798399261735, 157.2278737553296, 226.26329375000256, 336.3019603232395, 315.4483969271456, 77.30860258942964, 359.2850619460219, 266.0348047708076, 110.68122115902358, 141.91450165807342, 170.82678556371215, 109.20167008567284, 112.13431049200571, 356.6743334238636, 436.63088615381224, 70.62085812739836, 350.7290905447263, 169.85075265436666, 100.22267956605349, 157.81146614540592, 144.7321810163988, 736.2898301616443, 93.85785990377693 ], "zero": [ 5.381784802531122e-05, 0.00021519072170167637, 0.0002690287373268797, 0.00021525019988710408, 0.0, 0.00021519072170167637, 0.00026906856021953967, 0.0001614132088761494, 0.00029595680432517883, 0.0002690483926196475, 0.0006188225326630133, 5.381784802531122e-05, 0.0002690483926196475, 0.00021520986507128176, 0.0002421198133142241, 0.0005381547268873116, 0.00016143337647604153, 0.0001614328641689172, 0.0005380564500395108, 0.00010761552845073031, 0.00034979430764325777, 0.00021525071219422842, 0.0002958973261397511, 0.00032280625015240674, 0.00017145866517879349, 0.0004748121766207211, 5.2762596103246294e-05, 0.00014507711599622702, 0.0001714581629169069, 0.00027699299007083466, 6.595299399811457e-05, 0.0003956591497803031 ] }, "crps": 5.155816381403644, "crpss": -0.004958500850437586, "rps": 0.5219643487780499, "rpss": -0.15517509695913545, "mean_bias_mm": 0.00786802009270482, "mean_mae_mm": 7.595129974589151, "mean_rmse_mm": 14.884035154926655, "spread_error_ratio": 1.010254325733602, "zero_fraction": 0.00024398746997481076, "correlation": 0.013328208932403293, "pit_histogram": [ 0.42139, 0.03015, 0.03505, 0.04291, 0.04736, 0.05283, 0.06385, 0.07616, 0.09886, 0.13143 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.705644716843844 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 3.415596702785541, 3.2868887285465873, 6.667606264240989, 1.4401584167099497, 26.205251236027426, 1.6542034110299537, 1.4262866449349487, 2.4412210172865607, 6.228510165795322, 1.8959108910862836, 18.00659621982783, 3.6927351298174838, 2.3462755668246045, 3.9360785875333195, 1.857423642479764, 7.1171473112826105, 6.925409093923822, 2.0037016835477752, 2.1860303076074294, 3.0132856539229427, 2.166014725744779, 2.4468061449723346, 3.58520608276715, 1.8553014410040385, 2.404072546208355, 2.758343074256099, 5.418076436645959, 1.9037073949192467, 10.207624881703444, 1.7812609436434286, 4.059784971417315, 2.3107075499598975 ], "crps_clim": [ 2.1962156929740804, 2.1788012116298163, 5.48867715919352, 1.7773343754893767, 34.32641868083757, 1.8627034830071907, 1.9715211508068933, 2.4850922338242754, 5.825734906672177, 2.4213405279615716, 15.788972303238339, 4.131178922483057, 1.7605249281308137, 3.8097412938741515, 2.031828268076108, 7.918858186445213, 6.382316217886629, 2.0199351210734884, 2.268887809680827, 3.672694877557107, 1.9649460420847091, 2.2337494697367615, 2.0965498141099683, 1.8861829698011934, 2.2991833116108906, 2.179019211557004, 5.967272104997054, 1.9197227040545963, 8.917885769487894, 1.949950438310964, 3.6326875965041756, 2.091802235366322 ], "rps": [ 0.9856940580428288, 0.9347815739568968, 0.60606029921045, 0.4790408056379376, 0.19391130452588642, 0.5532715424107052, 0.5034717113060322, 0.5650790586868978, 0.5013042036351096, 0.26538871429553484, 0.627985514878542, 0.38104830449058985, 0.3692468759096632, 0.47470928129334655, 0.275037953474197, 0.40169504660590516, 0.5982247538359209, 0.6283436030720753, 0.8309238023407204, 0.3856732769696502, 0.8186702906824032, 0.695883969843133, 0.38669356827543794, 0.36782777572892617, 0.9321229451156271, 0.785923454004154, 0.4145093132060265, 0.6578297632207447, 0.4192982035577525, 0.3477075715749558, 0.4512661668276564, 0.6414828095898103 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5381511480265782, 0.5320773657724542, 0.49130303512889106, 0.38498928938989757, 0.5629552549427681, 0.38290325595556074, 0.3789331388282408, 0.4247100795822977, 0.5050165255638045, 0.3889502709540875, 0.5619307137731465, 0.5113363017784888, 0.34719627842747985, 0.37617173880982513, 0.3204093918893131, 0.5500282293506343, 0.49836540383658773, 0.43075767900875145, 0.5392014406556627, 0.46954411522421585, 0.5074149366392898, 0.43384618252591467, 0.40967831680734257, 0.35129371669777265, 0.556013264324054, 0.4676500824441632, 0.4913710435949474, 0.4477522470171603, 0.4328472498436856, 0.3755117997097963, 0.35728991623881007, 0.43983412768140073 ], "bias": [ 6.269560538322189, 7.905477694079545, -6.392871397001385, 1.8366707030002005, -30.051467167933712, 2.4932200944549074, 1.9637127531957435, 2.279114044352878, -5.017688130288898, 1.848509409901378, -19.81912139077522, -2.5849504742220017, 5.6758596993629125, 0.678152295171655, -0.3079934985337367, -6.2405428255243045, -6.254243999638099, 3.8904666146657805, 4.352117085786332, -1.2207642128186824, 4.694114682516126, 4.966624063955626, 8.617263851964655, 5.873262761419444, 4.00702209032484, 6.557794448688392, -5.048387025230587, 3.1612278343066817, -10.515611865489273, 2.381157504766607, 9.324822778750177, 4.56434019691284 ], "mae": [ 6.269939090787165, 7.905765773392493, 7.283746968448272, 2.6196217829682933, 30.08996802851989, 3.0790973174856866, 2.19691979166506, 4.137500708838208, 6.470177742885843, 3.028386073408901, 19.832878511096695, 4.177971936025118, 5.7272650746886455, 6.797511256380967, 2.3578014217282375, 6.528175035165984, 8.280199088034005, 4.0616030409053545, 4.356528798919626, 3.3623995092574845, 4.694114682516126, 4.973880293291351, 8.714906064199866, 6.376759393623476, 4.013740542279905, 6.558154808480498, 6.367023845427479, 3.4151636070626115, 11.637974794301352, 3.0681371269391047, 9.80026098467505, 4.588206055744618 ], "mse": [ 133.2497469464415, 203.2744364919785, 402.43490673759817, 22.29168778456862, 2156.2573526563374, 30.78214017942106, 18.828613906123138, 55.91640647251843, 189.24197170317387, 40.48814696922562, 927.0583684542615, 83.0689347059853, 130.95542343676777, 204.82055686129024, 37.05725757781963, 160.09628852590723, 354.6954968837163, 46.54893554570378, 60.881122341988124, 35.20139671511291, 62.3439714485443, 84.50675296985327, 261.3040788289392, 103.92346146064605, 48.862302514661714, 127.32145906258249, 215.4849929726341, 35.67403387036126, 574.785038578095, 34.09174048461364, 233.22643517895702, 61.29640187524621 ], "var": [ 126.04356405575744, 458.121040365666, 130.84547841932968, 80.1178975952557, 529.404464936549, 111.41943438853517, 30.21358064307369, 217.45065876254426, 380.1622592998859, 181.30004883334726, 97.64329868338224, 156.6714425145889, 274.3235771611384, 365.4267435057557, 31.59828079976164, 530.350313755863, 152.41332511405759, 93.03612913396282, 132.59130440104104, 187.71381684617128, 106.51775532969924, 145.45152179256394, 520.539412216445, 590.1883380473383, 54.789198538760346, 280.87724913248934, 205.85212644554363, 65.98832144872694, 149.18417740119563, 100.49728871317036, 1084.8178241206033, 85.01552017749009 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 4.582600714639162, "crpss": 0.005523658579527968, "rps": 0.5462533598814224, "rpss": -0.20840536630707396, "mean_bias_mm": -0.00353596379865595, "mean_mae_mm": 6.64911809841073, "mean_rmse_mm": 14.933152986874827, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0358347927853653, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.056513545436990824, "pit_histogram": [ 0.51914, 0.00981, 0.01504, 0.01826, 0.0311, 0.04765, 0.06046, 0.08198, 0.09438, 0.12218 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.8826335481708576 } }, "distribution_full": { "ethiopia": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0014087739979585, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.00655578351151838 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 1.018879566617696, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.0777575614248336 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 1.1732193518459428, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.3700624285043082 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0520562538632132, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.15210887510818932 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9175024610994871, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.18681874356716063 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": -0.00925666396329785 } }, "ondj_domain": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 1.000889498378851, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.0034164113449013634 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0344138445757014, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.056403140599261534 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 1.168039611075642, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.33911845711269334 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0334700217091013, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.10843529604740589 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9301816316413796, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.1728431851630244 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": 0.0 } } } }, "sqrt_mvs": { "training": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 4.545268679252122, 4.470373796729635, 13.130732200571101, 5.749843165430986, 18.97294533175144, 3.564794839927425, 1.6677026455664974, 3.7457304451572457, 6.909650683094387, 3.4651966344034903, 14.77781015313538, 4.042002849039838, 3.727742690317883, 4.661830368393486, 4.5599229946805675, 8.099312000085058, 5.201996567282685, 2.3099889019476665, 1.6271896987260996, 3.0381262837384826, 1.8833439646946875, 2.2808247786241482, 4.001781138059853, 3.3275636190469102 ], "crps_clim": [ 3.147316707451114, 3.345505329459557, 10.984966213801052, 5.565431468435425, 27.0718763908127, 3.331872595873229, 3.2339333066026654, 2.898578484108726, 7.306127788484703, 3.578837768945852, 13.61369806885984, 4.185041134572365, 2.552105347257009, 4.271290701634523, 4.644138020744405, 8.101898044577364, 4.707631815249459, 2.7497107572454813, 3.224323436142348, 3.3810268425956997, 2.5984657102999638, 2.914534006884459, 3.0779701844454106, 3.298398263301115 ], "rps": [ 0.7137072837139846, 0.682906235154916, 0.641181943740782, 0.4245272019813832, 0.23199902952686619, 0.47332797463077914, 0.3437369544703745, 0.5525049005547794, 0.46350345015877387, 0.40331150227694484, 0.5620841259049696, 0.3987618826814136, 0.5038775086448498, 0.4436651462399619, 0.450472779587529, 0.47602676782194714, 0.5002472026146705, 0.401346705886886, 0.3071140830779143, 0.3793069909094497, 0.370646695927759, 0.417440173870259, 0.37013469093489476, 0.5423820329462253 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.49730130537920497, 0.5299108646278966, 0.4968209717644765, 0.45140321931037847, 0.5120439289026995, 0.41031169775019555, 0.4779713217459693, 0.4530884207483443, 0.5043277856041234, 0.41692670592375, 0.5103230613419248, 0.4397744822519408, 0.3965890908147674, 0.3999865051869261, 0.4105095348843729, 0.49534705826094655, 0.4525412470698913, 0.40263417109494526, 0.4947135592926832, 0.4107579460380184, 0.4281083679843292, 0.43735476661089284, 0.37946484897479493, 0.465353650018479 ], "bias": [ 9.848160928260711, 10.52844474890539, -14.527311999647475, -5.243384258438029, -20.889915800531725, -0.5863974676380537, 2.291295493591737, 7.878879037275872, -6.45494347624522, 1.1690225889876713, -16.931543479102306, 0.025864468570344426, 8.722728958583767, -1.1642602733112066, -3.1161045666010345, -7.429066697879693, 0.28489955546884105, 4.208895098963169, 4.217288680759971, 1.0783175294951695, 4.35330849496661, 5.466966845443673, 7.819368618128702, 8.792247023198376 ], "mae": [ 9.854378329165234, 10.531750661886594, 15.091859996784278, 7.437629047613013, 22.971971745428412, 4.951519452279586, 3.327804746682859, 8.573216635698827, 7.87134368305522, 5.1218558847891815, 17.42174367349109, 5.376530507192316, 8.83600903794739, 6.685258904913791, 5.877670519692629, 8.762523282167384, 8.002855972885571, 5.102630405145058, 4.493914126132538, 4.3347784409966446, 4.545450082352796, 5.506837413027107, 8.754342006817003, 8.992819894906699 ], "mse": [ 233.65189334944566, 283.7889870207829, 895.9655848527353, 206.02010612445835, 1359.4306744488895, 62.55370240742706, 32.74203035590142, 171.61607680808387, 181.59680530451269, 81.17273893201758, 814.6316959168632, 94.14074110044973, 198.1496065983627, 162.93557546686108, 140.87559024341857, 245.82772309599883, 210.02763973204944, 59.6057997015325, 56.13118019408654, 51.081370665673084, 49.68744875996123, 82.15266586085896, 241.9098594378552, 177.66045816936426 ], "var": [ 277.93261104698627, 468.692825022912, 203.06887725499698, 124.30261936655118, 518.7518333475158, 147.31443328314933, 69.93621264762501, 397.88837275896543, 376.8005975810636, 241.0857797696994, 207.81407809511052, 293.9844625619442, 392.62293012571547, 389.2228742944353, 105.97580310088293, 462.2344683505475, 324.6062954750268, 165.55394101747981, 197.47460269187204, 231.57077952985034, 171.96607617264195, 170.93681513297156, 469.3508926723055, 537.9272135538549 ], "zero": [ 0.01021166995342454, 0.009698326036955219, 0.009602543762914676, 0.006917489070457584, 0.007152414408011997, 0.008388597224393429, 0.008290484440616433, 0.010562653838355623, 0.011264797101157258, 0.008920563246682644, 0.010163001195307088, 0.008126602147620577, 0.006566676605478425, 0.01103592227128453, 0.009892444888544325, 0.008142853645328579, 0.010612127302109428, 0.008040351518771654, 0.012793554967972218, 0.011691848000918412, 0.01125836171295034, 0.011550577546599088, 0.011711970241282732, 0.008474312429115461 ] }, "crps": 5.406736434569044, "crpss": 0.030070737595724206, "rps": 0.46059221930242966, "rpss": -0.016613572438361368, "mean_bias_mm": 0.014281668800219268, "mean_mae_mm": 8.267778935460468, "mean_rmse_mm": 15.933920780507316, "spread_error_ratio": 1.067753137304384, "zero_fraction": 0.009627922648177177, "correlation": 0.051867674997303076, "pit_histogram": [ 0.09216, 0.08054, 0.08595, 0.08797, 0.1066, 0.11318, 0.12065, 0.115, 0.10171, 0.09623 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.1142774474807382 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 3.2900928904023465, 3.128908111402894, 6.697338191355622, 1.178917958486046, 23.89710236560198, 1.9010014600292562, 0.9363252794325972, 2.798217078302262, 6.028223249139608, 2.310351264696835, 17.255817981474006, 3.506944378564066, 2.5752090033735655, 4.010165314560231, 1.923106352390654, 6.923386324706949, 6.607412620248921, 1.6370427097159965, 1.0769993966761608, 2.869182295181183, 1.4717755657378488, 1.6612167963865403, 3.9910203601940917, 1.8072442887533757 ], "crps_clim": [ 2.4548094454165224, 2.4172161936748946, 5.333194544027777, 1.8549628212328, 34.12225179677904, 1.8644358450759109, 2.122993377234286, 2.4401382645813325, 5.73783658336709, 2.3217318677782153, 15.529706680297545, 3.9621897190875477, 1.8639890286330005, 3.876280862498442, 2.06925731997254, 7.631461938517677, 6.263162085572975, 2.1837307589862482, 2.5462616594235836, 3.4498462746206284, 2.1833797898673692, 2.4890121894953605, 2.173582577005678, 2.0020724813943143 ], "rps": [ 0.7361845776599786, 0.6530703515392362, 0.5950027094108084, 0.3483156414706939, 0.15552263542988762, 0.44201065269911943, 0.3394371631793703, 0.47944366471436994, 0.5714054939638996, 0.31672319738826565, 0.6634071914440315, 0.3878501556012787, 0.41710831738207166, 0.4449780637546239, 0.40341287132149506, 0.4674616786409101, 0.5023467488008784, 0.44801398577884405, 0.23563638880413681, 0.40696030059401817, 0.38151896245369576, 0.360748070079318, 0.4344970357214078, 0.4015156327670036 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5271012391842729, 0.5237026472803199, 0.4726651024187634, 0.4183814425674277, 0.5463137996219282, 0.3948310596898503, 0.4065592098294793, 0.42831468140896223, 0.49352864345894915, 0.3706979572196848, 0.5445864342119232, 0.4920445653961977, 0.3565574386141641, 0.3975457684832652, 0.35150037945920126, 0.5287991707856597, 0.48528999945591406, 0.42598320924629246, 0.518005444784471, 0.4652291028680146, 0.5021412621347012, 0.4343952625071855, 0.40487741585469383, 0.3925124516437722 ], "bias": [ 7.160026471048285, 8.820870660533124, -6.514182282716265, 1.5264664247096154, -28.086394857728493, 3.3082397571250923, 1.2842262213014264, 3.111269330102403, -4.584079785479844, 3.1729717956439387, -19.750524532960164, -1.603210212391813, 6.793302615652731, 1.7341748980632454, -0.4289125960261266, -5.36133036397171, -5.510814777373038, 4.373135770606447, 3.8332535674972243, -0.3596882984865171, 4.7961221145099415, 4.9553285124977835, 10.48869650347538, 6.395776824965233 ], "mae": [ 7.163330541388248, 8.82092550791765, 7.35395161619641, 2.34939188359052, 28.293468080250097, 3.7283217984366277, 1.6770267074086493, 4.817178824916015, 6.444857712286155, 3.9138801933681946, 19.75866214039109, 4.048325972744636, 6.8003467410083, 7.674718866852539, 2.421833910404753, 6.01764205680858, 8.419012180434223, 4.476096973365648, 3.84694694829007, 3.1181675122278474, 4.799629949554686, 4.988688894283035, 10.572943250683222, 6.892636369387591 ], "mse": [ 163.5731512697387, 243.07871512400826, 415.74919090466756, 18.03115720106971, 1925.1276500307686, 41.04399043580252, 10.525225990586753, 69.52829746762417, 187.23667964404655, 64.0540162986206, 923.7612385884385, 74.03061915894948, 166.5910983431882, 219.68409851146114, 38.76517772531805, 135.9618936422597, 347.08468904711106, 50.812843069646036, 47.43640840154806, 30.645076067013008, 61.20042091330437, 81.53404529289288, 351.07593220971074, 117.32336778721543 ], "var": [ 187.97582300915468, 576.9842807032514, 181.50456114982651, 130.07798882349584, 580.3659417647518, 182.1638635494852, 58.86568172434335, 310.5440312304417, 480.03287028302054, 278.2696551445676, 145.19120251661144, 227.2048956548011, 374.4116412445834, 470.6805070525584, 54.738862728537114, 697.645521713969, 206.80642306635258, 157.2180215050563, 193.31726135813068, 260.2976160287587, 183.9778284122881, 219.8930410004488, 709.7952089372262, 741.8964962144242 ], "zero": [ 0.0023689131917134683, 0.002368883923191347, 0.003483589126145011, 0.002508240366386881, 0.0008360508536068336, 0.0020901710368002794, 0.0032049933138424288, 0.00292625115892924, 0.0042507001879899566, 0.001672189512780042, 0.0035537769356932757, 0.0028569973728614045, 0.002090229573844522, 0.0009057290752045997, 0.002647596809582415, 0.001184471230117794, 0.001811545955975576, 0.0020902881108887652, 0.004319727785318214, 0.00320502258236455, 0.00320502258236455, 0.0025082696349090026, 0.0019509023991711096, 0.002647626078104536 ] }, "crps": 4.561791718200544, "crpss": 0.07915068984301499, "rps": 0.44135714544163934, "rpss": 0.026557965914505877, "mean_bias_mm": -0.018553176641754304, "mean_mae_mm": 7.016582693008115, "mean_rmse_mm": 15.523980083413143, "spread_error_ratio": 1.1470427748532468, "zero_fraction": 0.0025286328665744084, "correlation": 0.19394669105211648, "pit_histogram": [ 0.0762, 0.04314, 0.05263, 0.05687, 0.11799, 0.15883, 0.16945, 0.16098, 0.09592, 0.068 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.4144826267583656 } }, "operational": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 1.7158916010666907, 3.0374960156808246, 3.969309992000921, 1.9086428036739675, 8.680216740919, 2.2205396939096866, 5.203200859839367, 1.8307672942614788 ], "crps_clim": [ 3.000358402837215, 3.2118104787747215, 4.432332626338175, 2.616293468105364, 7.502465706182092, 2.7696475536717284, 4.029967303787228, 2.9260298617309384 ], "rps": [ 0.37510820236563935, 0.5125415574676379, 0.3735746961044991, 0.395713192231853, 0.5152377578764299, 0.3796169925927106, 0.471136653980632, 0.38871504999833034 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5137613090872692, 0.49705239615939123, 0.40610073525670304, 0.44669601338418186, 0.4481977724282379, 0.39955792469123536, 0.39062127201913327, 0.49615040098932883 ], "bias": [ 4.3556799960294414, 8.416210627668308, -1.8309440373360142, 2.818657876598555, -8.765545011296886, 2.2386780449913157, 7.518589345829501, 4.791650953602079 ], "mae": [ 4.369285629912889, 8.428700792376352, 5.055503246751044, 4.146964491365114, 10.105284853636906, 3.9263536523441878, 10.138702414164168, 4.877052886413007 ], "mse": [ 47.48230812163078, 166.00723202594236, 116.19613435259419, 47.201060680665144, 351.90146633052365, 42.2889544209408, 231.78401447406176, 55.987673736908604 ], "var": [ 108.41935548957748, 388.7309195446885, 230.15591458998776, 144.08563535658982, 222.18997017676566, 196.3405170218865, 745.7758200586494, 141.0997935181266 ], "zero": [ 0.011141834612810772, 0.010488110843813545, 0.010636536892498051, 0.01100028050611786, 0.010026401833931378, 0.01014585974852834, 0.010199230274637006, 0.01094730948903263 ] }, "crps": 3.570758125168992, "crpss": 0.06306688858647902, "rps": 0.4264555128272165, "rpss": 0.051830621982574265, "mean_bias_mm": 2.4428722245107877, "mean_mae_mm": 6.380980995870459, "mean_rmse_mm": 11.504612358437306, "spread_error_ratio": 1.4338115484558491, "zero_fraction": 0.010573195525171199, "correlation": 0.1905531687167658, "pit_histogram": [ 0.0743, 0.07719, 0.11865, 0.12868, 0.09989, 0.10247, 0.12784, 0.1146, 0.08591, 0.07048 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.18447127494236193 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 1.3470506869608023, 1.9702812239649112, 5.020500696825402, 1.222001353694033, 9.519320485697605, 1.444332551455209, 4.874812337293718, 1.6199440607415758 ], "crps_clim": [ 2.366231987002849, 2.259909659422711, 5.567918347623332, 1.9966771549125995, 8.330258482082852, 1.9477425770778494, 3.4305474768916633, 2.1733161564516763 ], "rps": [ 0.39520292631770115, 0.43838591242603914, 0.43347154726743164, 0.3676337148736226, 0.4940554166941715, 0.38781916757129753, 0.46339031712865586, 0.45149333220413185 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5473323710222779, 0.45950888532469003, 0.47310561454117583, 0.451258434482434, 0.43752408372393053, 0.3769753182133201, 0.34410807043894076, 0.45220364528394885 ], "bias": [ 3.6449178163572786, 6.574632240825063, -3.8323751663289722, 2.905399892702058, -9.872809275190189, 2.2248842044939257, 10.936958808627326, 4.616243741219707 ], "mae": [ 3.6692099852657054, 6.579785838107513, 5.936548440987194, 3.20100651342523, 11.361272036733961, 2.8230876385422694, 11.289867496897623, 4.635447102876731 ], "mse": [ 38.309278330999305, 123.7428813856081, 185.34949391555452, 29.926657755290393, 539.7449449022107, 27.709280255593605, 301.30371017711775, 57.21778657371124 ], "var": [ 90.30531082343278, 354.3765704498678, 293.73324814847933, 106.06093112514829, 223.39213064871723, 155.34391987203517, 1090.7340764674914, 138.5584676588933 ], "zero": [ 0.0027664631015459134, 0.0031079799693945935, 0.001707699117761518, 0.00314213596037389, 0.002868873685224745, 0.0031420929184295945, 0.0007514174542297798, 0.00293718566718334 ] }, "crps": 3.3772804245791574, "crpss": 0.03755827303741044, "rps": 0.4289315418103814, "rpss": 0.031215012959500354, "mean_bias_mm": 2.149731532838275, "mean_mae_mm": 6.187028131604528, "mean_rmse_mm": 12.763737860125877, "spread_error_ratio": 1.3717723682496288, "zero_fraction": 0.0025529809842679218, "correlation": 0.11088889191841111, "pit_histogram": [ 0.07325, 0.05577, 0.09418, 0.09517, 0.08531, 0.10541, 0.19543, 0.177, 0.08771, 0.03077 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.35567059872978757 } }, "full": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 4.099914417026997, 4.034830899271696, 13.377143912619658, 5.9309575787087345, 19.528948066722084, 3.542924684085496, 1.5273826507901611, 3.426789133594147, 7.066088108625233, 3.5327315815266433, 15.173413776608275, 4.167007304532636, 3.435927439915986, 4.629130593325063, 4.488211116688695, 8.425402844126454, 5.010050058230318, 2.080254150687884, 1.4259894409402254, 3.0099850988111734, 1.7060413783647035, 2.0366205752301383, 3.770954927374921, 3.0744191077705816, 1.6134749516432936, 2.933045777502594, 4.063691574189128, 1.774080139468208, 9.086375027283259, 2.16018462513826, 4.999129169522336, 1.7063660682433206 ], "crps_clim": [ 2.6897179853589925, 2.867287610747155, 11.613583597576943, 5.886197674812449, 27.77500554826608, 3.3326847383568015, 2.8099124904438204, 2.624493357547262, 7.71221722782229, 3.8123457628295836, 14.271810450341063, 4.481516504313957, 2.329174473258749, 4.367684268620377, 4.603049696222213, 8.657359289497048, 4.649450179185341, 2.4755201422145108, 2.7360868719092664, 3.4495472657845374, 2.254603487223936, 2.505246979400119, 3.1059697413108407, 2.855418618210857, 2.766727211701212, 2.9690284184817233, 4.63923895270541, 2.3781737857801595, 8.084302871907116, 2.606734429626978, 4.181426375823429, 2.68056081509455 ], "rps": [ 0.7126910117934957, 0.7067505560008109, 0.6118795466997397, 0.40265321186545705, 0.21851227976951423, 0.46600454680833364, 0.3535038675842823, 0.5462095784469138, 0.44437329330306946, 0.4053584144447618, 0.5420107816203471, 0.39516937025375015, 0.4881337901787089, 0.43935081588188124, 0.43260970843733876, 0.48074036036764856, 0.46956746296329377, 0.4022316002031334, 0.33218777530011845, 0.36846825629088725, 0.35964313076415844, 0.40951274086382333, 0.35110131468533756, 0.5552269480395474, 0.38508077779778765, 0.5419690351699422, 0.36570661526397324, 0.39120103201031714, 0.5077418405792101, 0.40569360441564695, 0.4625653396996641, 0.40733262846516005 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.49041507783712296, 0.5369376306368444, 0.5100667474154729, 0.4521868075526217, 0.5217072761921506, 0.4133935720112422, 0.47234840051899624, 0.43488625630302596, 0.5255484732176574, 0.43690918492602165, 0.5252437168376151, 0.45828462824902266, 0.38486514853319226, 0.4081996460632345, 0.40282801997469403, 0.5125391329245191, 0.44742012622339855, 0.39216921729503385, 0.5031366769351334, 0.41349098916290067, 0.4059993484819169, 0.41024969837800246, 0.3849070120945385, 0.44180910334017454, 0.4984255550790732, 0.4983306583397526, 0.40315870128184617, 0.42477518647713974, 0.4628459104807814, 0.3911057460601312, 0.4012825990880415, 0.4936916796322727 ], "bias": [ 9.049101570863362, 9.659159747152213, -14.895495764772889, -5.624672697567363, -21.562152629296946, -1.059895477953882, 1.9554844788017998, 6.98449312992148, -7.152565436685105, 0.4964474605786374, -17.27077191362851, -0.7020858200648145, 7.942656399008507, -1.8003698876557728, -3.4814651130861325, -8.028470773379523, -0.5273752953707707, 3.5669153205583215, 3.764509100477024, 0.37243066979426254, 3.829113934352547, 4.908964756623198, 6.751784892532493, 7.986024360316565, 4.070805475047265, 8.056305309725241, -2.523544519311982, 2.447996272551877, -9.530302263615116, 1.8119684434854608, 6.963306938409109, 4.454017477878484 ], "mae": [ 9.056366505131129, 9.661427989553292, 15.369823472885031, 7.587062202112475, 23.590382407419217, 4.767750791893554, 3.0224714779582023, 7.713382305821894, 8.099976906100732, 5.078492026501993, 17.82912025863392, 5.471532777166227, 8.129623322945887, 6.381098890778594, 5.72917329215717, 9.310092403611716, 7.41321707565583, 4.422125176098555, 4.01041275434549, 4.1843544040831695, 4.0175422117421995, 4.972324516034198, 7.921037239852275, 8.204700622122333, 4.085216782214088, 8.066481468925948, 5.086846305302455, 3.780954980004736, 10.467100206641598, 3.6106063478686816, 9.62949564091837, 4.525841898317193 ], "mse": [ 198.9300530597803, 243.89731154956465, 913.8611352241097, 214.7408141103306, 1411.454898337073, 60.17701776055602, 28.48065774858007, 140.16590313975036, 192.05505330112345, 81.71794065251643, 844.5405370609799, 99.48380549957464, 173.10451043332984, 159.5609115753756, 138.71976259819763, 271.13733214967954, 194.98891609994303, 45.73044950028726, 46.248994238966276, 49.31167583515708, 40.39566105874746, 69.22981982629972, 212.32889060250983, 150.96311544722292, 42.72196700712695, 155.09022846497365, 125.2059655182941, 40.55087633132811, 384.644932201803, 37.32095722779025, 211.85939513902593, 49.14316433981126 ], "var": [ 247.78448837466402, 410.429417921692, 183.62981630697422, 112.17691229089921, 497.2400350770136, 132.53033899345633, 64.16883037488002, 346.78885746672785, 322.33750684564467, 216.63845440768392, 191.74956544494634, 257.45669733166875, 355.4750816466565, 349.59803613795646, 97.82554896840794, 419.74385242782665, 276.46211038740654, 140.26233924000852, 175.81487734640035, 200.06402992869775, 153.4551417153529, 153.74004000428394, 406.8344799527914, 463.9562107513041, 96.90316659656115, 348.27315926908767, 204.63561063618275, 129.1470520970884, 189.54240706928664, 178.7684390706357, 732.6101086859172, 125.54277308646355 ], "zero": [ 0.008902067449766012, 0.008224788728672173, 0.00797559453461026, 0.005664253643157447, 0.005759971238698052, 0.006599981044118135, 0.007440944691163182, 0.00928060775492705, 0.009629612928645098, 0.007664782143616077, 0.00906687995810444, 0.007240718787915053, 0.005607941827734612, 0.008353937843314133, 0.00820811582337157, 0.006456463098479253, 0.009168789488097039, 0.006841795577884114, 0.011325912064126132, 0.009259800078300616, 0.009924135549382767, 0.009919112840491694, 0.009682817306006392, 0.007382200152154584, 0.00978008825663277, 0.009758692021353117, 0.009022617890899528, 0.009797216971599916, 0.009861787466158853, 0.009007941810939746, 0.009357569414493264, 0.009479242766754483 ] }, "crps": 4.901170818080259, "crpss": 0.04467635901166145, "rps": 0.4487869136240017, "rpss": 0.006776099415089609, "mean_bias_mm": 0.028509942052782455, "mean_mae_mm": 7.537376083149942, "mean_rmse_mm": 14.819500089662068, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0789720400208953, "zero_fraction": 0.008488949410986485, "correlation": 0.07794827519637483, "pit_histogram": [ 0.08237, 0.0774, 0.09293, 0.10195, 0.10506, 0.10759, 0.12273, 0.11678, 0.10048, 0.09271 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.10917358775989716 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 2.9671828359904997, 2.8354824382513435, 6.786389876939463, 1.1610554648065192, 24.245634153295658, 1.7817527915086697, 0.9127344620974182, 2.696084539823574, 6.138593016995872, 2.19021486072607, 17.509512473521752, 3.6086962848264745, 2.312831826746215, 3.8653835355310058, 1.8985717519554404, 7.1330360911224115, 6.661619289564299, 1.4614073125880667, 0.9340470361296747, 3.012633271307284, 1.31643278592222, 1.47089495197996, 3.678233974057685, 1.692130691187847, 1.2576214347849934, 1.8865626459153086, 5.2264490876114404, 1.1175818391291974, 9.995314981063819, 1.4125436688751036, 4.768229506989705, 1.5140739159496874 ], "crps_clim": [ 2.1962156929740804, 2.1788012116298163, 5.48867715919352, 1.7773343754893767, 34.32641868083757, 1.8627034830071907, 1.9715211508068933, 2.4850922338242754, 5.825734906672177, 2.4213405279615716, 15.788972303238339, 4.131178922483057, 1.7605249281308137, 3.8097412938741515, 2.031828268076108, 7.918858186445213, 6.382316217886629, 2.0199351210734884, 2.268887809680827, 3.672694877557107, 1.9649460420847091, 2.2337494697367615, 2.0965498141099683, 1.8861829698011934, 2.2991833116108906, 2.179019211557004, 5.967272104997054, 1.9197227040545963, 8.917885769487894, 1.949950438310964, 3.6326875965041756, 2.091802235366322 ], "rps": [ 0.735417845365385, 0.646042405479592, 0.5996424516357144, 0.3184232466656332, 0.14799645617731566, 0.41705177334938076, 0.3096019789263418, 0.45821999594036805, 0.5674278006527479, 0.3162083010869274, 0.6436343785728676, 0.3732669575725804, 0.3833502774658423, 0.4160059027991353, 0.3787755501692198, 0.46866102732201853, 0.48463498463551313, 0.4805827222035375, 0.24723491467721564, 0.39456108713928273, 0.37431389373127943, 0.39740905763612916, 0.4065640153298376, 0.3758213446794402, 0.41462788474101436, 0.45879003800027623, 0.4362802620941963, 0.36897229329689357, 0.4826171012271203, 0.4409419727005642, 0.45317535845375817, 0.46442955851840606 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5381511480265782, 0.5320773657724542, 0.49130303512889106, 0.38498928938989757, 0.5629552549427681, 0.38290325595556074, 0.3789331388282408, 0.4247100795822977, 0.5050165255638045, 0.3889502709540875, 0.5619307137731465, 0.5113363017784888, 0.34719627842747985, 0.37617173880982513, 0.3204093918893131, 0.5500282293506343, 0.49836540383658773, 0.43075767900875145, 0.5392014406556627, 0.46954411522421585, 0.5074149366392898, 0.43384618252591467, 0.40967831680734257, 0.35129371669777265, 0.556013264324054, 0.4676500824441632, 0.4913710435949474, 0.4477522470171603, 0.4328472498436856, 0.3755117997097963, 0.35728991623881007, 0.43983412768140073 ], "bias": [ 6.604111637334721, 8.129630497486596, -6.848840689620284, 1.1747214303018034, -28.347261322325483, 2.7881067145567924, 1.0162297652372123, 2.4559004080076505, -5.175146651821274, 2.5708703124347037, -19.95722190509659, -2.2166900239457723, 6.141560669161787, 1.1238545162909983, -0.7432552040003327, -5.942551709458748, -6.056106303627165, 3.806232343910576, 3.457611819681125, -0.9615451534788609, 4.3067433633135845, 4.494684735246417, 9.4429757180807, 5.614407637207597, 3.415100611951447, 6.2438966537612455, -4.534476948089685, 2.6110887357676766, -10.598155671706504, 1.891729671082502, 10.721617772676526, 4.313024755548297 ], "mae": [ 6.6072400936885884, 8.129640028857922, 7.500913674219911, 2.113166605052536, 28.553377084503996, 3.297616962819433, 1.5426443412737105, 4.258999815931717, 6.488043278627234, 3.5303418237051805, 19.964677450660737, 4.051598658256473, 6.160354252009464, 7.067459984307792, 2.324215070773316, 6.460677755654726, 8.30871969190226, 3.933826791890901, 3.4713206511071992, 3.354335310822111, 4.313560307131283, 4.530230739758478, 9.529230509325235, 6.157827143471268, 3.4404576614443787, 6.248602261089702, 6.15121688970266, 2.9194859817754937, 11.758308761479764, 2.66943124759602, 11.028196197545983, 4.332091297974437 ], "mse": [ 145.87223987243905, 217.20758173339388, 420.03118020517326, 16.081306769383616, 1955.6919456435035, 34.07529015081853, 9.602480372840844, 57.49016549050935, 189.83520190859412, 53.4246632722638, 940.6582912493479, 77.74118476630132, 146.25005725580388, 205.41601424202224, 38.17756999673111, 154.8170492371964, 350.0023038544238, 40.99599351902385, 41.0076774393168, 34.53927718859332, 51.9442964677132, 71.67916891112007, 310.4932533124606, 98.10171666874392, 35.295797429492374, 117.56116148110026, 200.91424382029052, 25.863992894682557, 584.2695980461531, 25.12219925993782, 289.8282885389137, 52.551042889430704 ], "var": [ 176.02624894555768, 515.484318092274, 167.2677391786421, 117.41293831174076, 599.2091141313449, 166.73112687321088, 54.61749605400181, 278.516592083327, 413.28693861318027, 258.45378599449543, 139.1806312665451, 202.4693411121654, 343.48347206868755, 442.7680209509067, 50.22341090809803, 656.5624778236587, 184.59618177514318, 132.13024341562934, 176.44653322129662, 226.1573996497991, 163.79741688363052, 201.63518432366922, 621.8992849847202, 649.3383901829069, 82.54166933153688, 323.616704929808, 263.3901802002804, 94.9528897045909, 189.18492447391102, 145.15486474877602, 1120.0999644836158, 127.41868609902846 ], "zero": [ 0.0032053871542773397, 0.0023691912846327836, 0.004459475415802862, 0.0033447143289507524, 0.0008360508536068336, 0.002717526508723183, 0.0043202919305942574, 0.003832431285040101, 0.0042507001879899566, 0.0022995449847029456, 0.0035537769356932757, 0.0028569973728614045, 0.0028569973728614045, 0.0009057290752045997, 0.0035537769356932757, 0.001254317103410889, 0.002508607591445469, 0.002996468236999626, 0.005713851056258001, 0.004390027362663368, 0.004390027362663368, 0.0034144497610198634, 0.0027176701981879918, 0.003623512367762387, 0.0037232143659163552, 0.004133070609791495, 0.002322753501999659, 0.0042013962887840215, 0.003757285573568726, 0.0040988441828000355, 0.00040985754443680035, 0.003859767243540551 ] }, "crps": 4.232779149912334, "crpss": 0.08143890660194142, "rps": 0.43314633869517294, "rpss": 0.04180660748864118, "mean_bias_mm": 0.029464005808414573, "mean_mae_mm": 6.568681510136247, "mean_rmse_mm": 14.782318654696605, "spread_error_ratio": 1.1522621171569993, "zero_fraction": 0.003214928499308862, "correlation": 0.16336541224420753, "pit_histogram": [ 0.06636, 0.04314, 0.06169, 0.06656, 0.10453, 0.14348, 0.17954, 0.17007, 0.10126, 0.06338 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.3977472021555054 } }, "distribution_full": { "ethiopia": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0019524332367953, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.05769856232618263 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 1.105807467823189, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.4146858234156449 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.8593947099787668, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.4067048069629498 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0345630129685954, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.218404294540542 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0646007888643199, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.21662978771022948 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": -0.0010117020222861865 } }, "ondj_domain": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0032703134764993, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.07658047250038302 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 1.1772436122849834, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.6628914825542103 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.8179104341007299, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.4756607413906057 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9252387255993435, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.19803076664921493 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.2195831247389828, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.31449938617643486 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": 0.0032149284993088596 } } } }, "pt": { "training": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 5.341822902685554, 5.179336184313462, 13.102248697309218, 5.8425625712516105, 19.48721271381499, 3.8760485080640326, 2.083626836430906, 4.363861121185571, 6.576622567862943, 3.8043928738471773, 14.206213923311264, 4.182247202770833, 4.621543109870132, 4.7800420693132315, 4.811577757747986, 7.975282531392289, 5.338723820188596, 2.795278687890865, 2.0828412765775997, 3.2904754272311623, 2.5060206912852228, 2.856507818906244, 4.683336018413179, 3.9070769320052774 ], "crps_clim": [ 3.147316707451114, 3.345505329459557, 10.984966213801052, 5.565431468435425, 27.0718763908127, 3.331872595873229, 3.2339333066026654, 2.898578484108726, 7.306127788484703, 3.578837768945852, 13.61369806885984, 4.185041134572365, 2.552105347257009, 4.271290701634523, 4.644138020744405, 8.101898044577364, 4.707631815249459, 2.7497107572454813, 3.224323436142348, 3.3810268425956997, 2.5984657102999638, 2.914534006884459, 3.0779701844454106, 3.298398263301115 ], "rps": [ 0.7679641805290973, 0.7411039294494761, 0.6094737167189606, 0.40857560492818346, 0.1980368638991487, 0.4483079273202644, 0.3775499321166649, 0.6241811114131057, 0.4125328538620821, 0.4461731906143006, 0.5275849230574025, 0.4058755609162602, 0.5851850247555572, 0.43194611971713615, 0.44057776467537935, 0.496695077140812, 0.4723884603852249, 0.3999132384787986, 0.31755733336877023, 0.38990048633419705, 0.39119848648155, 0.46436511857178203, 0.41443012431322235, 0.6038158629722664 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.49730130537920497, 0.5299108646278966, 0.4968209717644765, 0.45140321931037847, 0.5120439289026995, 0.41031169775019555, 0.4779713217459693, 0.4530884207483443, 0.5043277856041234, 0.41692670592375, 0.5103230613419248, 0.4397744822519408, 0.3965890908147674, 0.3999865051869261, 0.4105095348843729, 0.49534705826094655, 0.4525412470698913, 0.40263417109494526, 0.4947135592926832, 0.4107579460380184, 0.4281083679843292, 0.43735476661089284, 0.37946484897479493, 0.465353650018479 ], "bias": [ 10.210623729504166, 10.513583503220826, -14.815326352757271, -5.229994506059737, -21.927109275698577, -0.16830195810004, 1.8378944726601512, 7.896233971765116, -6.576689936532523, 1.7853454983099115, -17.0211475240199, 0.24614924273119285, 8.800811877904287, -1.1960195396274012, -3.0817575998293294, -7.758872880755596, 0.5235744184398219, 4.429211528568599, 3.523360938803791, 1.39343578229378, 4.145313418411769, 5.4664308454223045, 7.923819819934506, 8.209454931623025 ], "mae": [ 10.21982914924399, 10.527048604360559, 15.287187239612082, 7.263594675115579, 23.74879285424245, 5.1915480238719, 3.177055705009553, 8.545436888592135, 7.838301927130147, 5.349287978047251, 17.46705014404124, 5.281530286954531, 8.921908921126764, 6.8005091247371885, 6.083092684018673, 9.091215309531211, 7.966980685167298, 5.314574213793844, 4.066778738086532, 4.3796100723378695, 4.393446227967326, 5.594556874420684, 8.822212794637023, 8.425139236474768 ], "mse": [ 245.93336123587673, 282.174281261571, 910.9038194852047, 198.48697584217194, 1452.8347144855018, 67.04520982338721, 31.588875759600178, 167.45001906253384, 178.45713696394336, 83.72898596165899, 817.0274880687865, 90.82455108600585, 199.73555743274508, 163.77075773568143, 144.56327963001527, 258.0364631459019, 201.97718718359036, 65.32281041571397, 48.78370642835165, 52.520436019204254, 48.93815744538323, 84.01427788939489, 237.91252923332192, 163.45210967409866 ], "var": [ 263.1928760241559, 346.84988406484854, 202.36370178918133, 147.25442252202762, 282.0039494740416, 164.96351233751653, 96.23511043369048, 339.2882882540152, 307.0947788849777, 234.458278813609, 222.4968888933854, 281.7736036713095, 300.0451502916311, 319.76251539269026, 123.48407151991422, 388.5084276995495, 293.37856308339747, 173.58920561817902, 201.45313072016975, 220.83462555404927, 194.44763834863272, 189.34341585631998, 344.60120950296755, 371.5205189950611 ], "zero": [ 0.16918913834137117, 0.17777384535277596, 0.21900108249857667, 0.23225687816193358, 0.11896016516699413, 0.15254815233021166, 0.257625531747366, 0.1601812873030095, 0.21276443456617108, 0.15286960520787615, 0.2096609003652644, 0.16661114485523001, 0.1412231947839681, 0.15834569111241714, 0.21453141705889217, 0.14677166122130317, 0.16171679709174216, 0.17716075006528995, 0.3269505449020353, 0.20565984549693472, 0.2775481557429885, 0.266952239043055, 0.17162776430802407, 0.20816047167518453 ] }, "crps": 5.737287593486222, "crpss": -0.02922774044835519, "rps": 0.4739722038341518, "rpss": -0.04614571237456078, "mean_bias_mm": -0.036248983074463594, "mean_mae_mm": 8.32319534827169, "mean_rmse_mm": 16.06689491271525, "spread_error_ratio": 0.98483051312901, "zero_fraction": 0.19525377909994232, "correlation": 0.023432785382151055, "pit_histogram": [ 0.03235, 0.10038, 0.12171, 0.13284, 0.14665, 0.1256, 0.10102, 0.08104, 0.06678, 0.09163 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.2564024254541597 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 4.2822636553570925, 3.985961372748636, 7.042078711258208, 1.8616195815961998, 24.941114985349362, 2.7861693689858043, 1.6411664659639895, 3.3825635230900715, 5.850602899881765, 3.10250421625784, 16.42361967713341, 3.63373606974157, 3.6346839671795688, 4.578603426884341, 2.4715841486328047, 6.908735231150428, 6.6545796027884565, 2.3291225705325584, 1.663122360832962, 3.1163505954050383, 2.261966886211567, 2.170184990925172, 5.041649989653393, 2.4119366519850702 ], "crps_clim": [ 2.4548094454165224, 2.4172161936748946, 5.333194544027777, 1.8549628212328, 34.12225179677904, 1.8644358450759109, 2.122993377234286, 2.4401382645813325, 5.73783658336709, 2.3217318677782153, 15.529706680297545, 3.9621897190875477, 1.8639890286330005, 3.876280862498442, 2.06925731997254, 7.631461938517677, 6.263162085572975, 2.1837307589862482, 2.5462616594235836, 3.4498462746206284, 2.1833797898673692, 2.4890121894953605, 2.173582577005678, 2.0020724813943143 ], "rps": [ 0.7636463796073082, 0.6707288615487629, 0.588149891935473, 0.34093454294127107, 0.0872070561986569, 0.4882050176877756, 0.3467788528826251, 0.5189342942801541, 0.5462894963232772, 0.35418644536766103, 0.6263823463523678, 0.36717248670100955, 0.4918863216167101, 0.49568258557379014, 0.4466703901114556, 0.45494812572456256, 0.478283887421487, 0.4716767598415601, 0.2055813099762634, 0.39257424507583744, 0.38020384931725615, 0.37542478530002654, 0.4800305775916966, 0.42602600434547677 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5271012391842729, 0.5237026472803199, 0.4726651024187634, 0.4183814425674277, 0.5463137996219282, 0.3948310596898503, 0.4065592098294793, 0.42831468140896223, 0.49352864345894915, 0.3706979572196848, 0.5445864342119232, 0.4920445653961977, 0.3565574386141641, 0.3975457684832652, 0.35150037945920126, 0.5287991707856597, 0.48528999945591406, 0.42598320924629246, 0.518005444784471, 0.4652291028680146, 0.5021412621347012, 0.4343952625071855, 0.40487741585469383, 0.3925124516437722 ], "bias": [ 8.047347065432831, 8.719999554381454, -6.798157647133774, 1.2292331813647017, -29.262069104306978, 3.999893485594173, 0.5877547640438008, 3.3814075612535457, -5.239592241692506, 3.9294763892509907, -19.730705067296356, -1.0184155840615565, 7.325870699742558, 1.906876570204414, -0.41363697552679535, -5.838707421768971, -4.929952259479989, 4.603534131630167, 2.8252937439925128, -0.053011422145429754, 4.42682815098355, 4.539868469498659, 10.389154629249475, 5.365262399054759 ], "mae": [ 8.051734963855774, 8.733875183561727, 7.531511233290528, 2.2361664833185024, 29.41940502864144, 4.325786504509368, 1.602886198874897, 4.974829929334963, 6.615084004510355, 4.443422905802563, 19.751030412887477, 3.8391066731325023, 7.333002762258307, 7.896396335641257, 2.52519853008828, 6.763198257976172, 8.366701815936171, 4.7225233583857165, 3.3161869363977434, 3.1391528349516857, 4.52055457451358, 4.810232190109336, 10.454399408855036, 5.908708662042907 ], "mse": [ 192.59936123068923, 240.75263157857268, 421.24617831280756, 17.349639269103164, 2090.2467641415965, 50.4377932178315, 9.067467213626053, 72.90276868054973, 188.78065058305907, 71.17234341170986, 921.0574829102538, 66.08769246129812, 175.3510873437043, 220.6927825034668, 39.253613240655625, 159.6400370155686, 329.4716527916558, 56.8048970263828, 37.143966229077755, 31.327895829937187, 58.49249291590319, 76.28811763733134, 334.75890627040746, 93.58827554136462 ], "var": [ 199.27868262328906, 390.47880588299137, 195.85205200402723, 148.39372472652394, 253.1763018184582, 201.69991611330653, 87.0324438646152, 296.3931194412674, 337.0582250507705, 261.5178264569478, 182.49892735216733, 240.2559488602665, 300.5142011781905, 365.698875966629, 84.22200941202684, 527.245668382256, 226.4837431741103, 161.1280654277446, 203.24777680097083, 237.27820645977894, 214.2046744523033, 224.54951498473199, 455.5992788462934, 435.3962708372828 ], "zero": [ 0.2723914809397513, 0.27022250466222336, 0.38698089542812325, 0.42625871986616215, 0.18407227356891673, 0.24205092385584348, 0.47081023296892904, 0.265763575506043, 0.3983052580236054, 0.26190129932457795, 0.3688884021751464, 0.27888581028310033, 0.2515041213412062, 0.21639285671609843, 0.37474061505324163, 0.23129402256849738, 0.2522596985906883, 0.29666789920955555, 0.5418533371560738, 0.3110924675130208, 0.45803961646312935, 0.4347654651307952, 0.23436078535726715, 0.34711201430196387 ] }, "crps": 5.090663372897722, "crpss": -0.02760804191723021, "rps": 0.4499001880717694, "rpss": 0.007715726968014036, "mean_bias_mm": -0.08360195532228169, "mean_mae_mm": 7.136712299536512, "mean_rmse_mm": 15.751341870557876, "spread_error_ratio": 1.02280562426565, "zero_fraction": 0.3240255948334983, "correlation": 0.13431576603139064, "pit_histogram": [ 0.0126, 0.04619, 0.1029, 0.12984, 0.20333, 0.1817, 0.12962, 0.09001, 0.04235, 0.06145 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.49479044943190886 } }, "operational": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 2.1453205015864976, 3.5473287320446927, 4.0230495577709044, 2.3727361798747073, 8.49686722671714, 2.6695161093583923, 5.676634907909689, 2.353516803960342 ], "crps_clim": [ 3.000358402837215, 3.2118104787747215, 4.432332626338175, 2.616293468105364, 7.502465706182092, 2.7696475536717284, 4.029967303787228, 2.9260298617309384 ], "rps": [ 0.39624848828042714, 0.558482396933529, 0.3732465544853047, 0.42424204406577654, 0.49275791943928204, 0.38795898105757676, 0.48812248957831517, 0.4316136974189317 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5137613090872692, 0.49705239615939123, 0.40610073525670304, 0.44669601338418186, 0.4481977724282379, 0.39955792469123536, 0.39062127201913327, 0.49615040098932883 ], "bias": [ 4.210283040296495, 7.97879640058872, -1.5564931737133714, 2.6463609256827807, -8.866729241422117, 1.9111915520780032, 6.9809911707231365, 4.621651175714151 ], "mae": [ 4.261606213124965, 8.031867966860535, 5.062760149659956, 4.108300047985675, 10.070884234429204, 3.81567945558299, 9.792752459871929, 4.756320566422689 ], "mse": [ 46.609045314724774, 155.15555446712256, 113.27970279750001, 47.376554509903855, 349.9126892826935, 41.69579532729122, 209.19158530920578, 56.05620464332059 ], "var": [ 130.9446311092323, 319.2377658680168, 214.44584894167406, 157.42004481877643, 214.63005556067714, 209.37168485414242, 471.56377343869735, 161.6351736460036 ], "zero": [ 0.256090989876448, 0.22718124929201866, 0.18834765814709467, 0.24106504830318826, 0.20657456941105362, 0.2484244897974957, 0.11453000392816233, 0.2444143720268285 ] }, "crps": 3.9106212524027955, "crpss": -0.02610997696747841, "rps": 0.4440840714073929, "rpss": 0.012635772997043992, "mean_bias_mm": 2.2407564812434746, "mean_mae_mm": 6.237521386742243, "mean_rmse_mm": 11.287587937928558, "spread_error_ratio": 1.3578319426222403, "zero_fraction": 0.21582854759778622, "correlation": 0.20356088307248743, "pit_histogram": [ 0.01169, 0.08009, 0.13086, 0.16708, 0.15176, 0.16592, 0.12278, 0.05477, 0.04929, 0.06576 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.47680552069940374 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 1.83292949479584, 2.5736748809034173, 4.986587729199702, 1.8514291157415896, 9.429656492095914, 2.1204554293874898, 5.711356113904965, 2.295503325170601 ], "crps_clim": [ 2.366231987002849, 2.259909659422711, 5.567918347623332, 1.9966771549125995, 8.330258482082852, 1.9477425770778494, 3.4305474768916633, 2.1733161564516763 ], "rps": [ 0.3683725815363917, 0.45109244372252755, 0.4136903194386117, 0.386461852249094, 0.521225202843932, 0.4384672769450987, 0.525629054795998, 0.4889627307441691 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5473323710222779, 0.45950888532469003, 0.47310561454117583, 0.451258434482434, 0.43752408372393053, 0.3769753182133201, 0.34410807043894076, 0.45220364528394885 ], "bias": [ 3.536254004869531, 6.0950482688955105, -3.531825190891347, 2.731588030736127, -9.919969148614808, 2.040270439858554, 9.937778976253526, 4.618209861862867 ], "mae": [ 3.6303240885236567, 6.196682137173891, 5.921130835295991, 3.1522889578617854, 11.273843238023282, 2.800707034044873, 10.531407264290802, 4.698318864059678 ], "mse": [ 37.958833937980074, 115.3787314756215, 181.82839120938294, 30.09877277706292, 532.7468137579988, 27.01432849679535, 255.12614611247412, 61.11013665726612 ], "var": [ 118.75760973044066, 307.5882930108716, 265.4259009099139, 136.9373530526865, 214.648318049253, 182.81447906358338, 606.1564693610331, 160.2468023300596 ], "zero": [ 0.39963321105634914, 0.3882849778854912, 0.285983392255033, 0.39460339970313063, 0.3485983335245616, 0.3900548699900812, 0.12274716544067268, 0.3649709503831102 ] }, "crps": 3.8501990726499398, "crpss": -0.09721189204853253, "rps": 0.44923768278447784, "rpss": -0.0146484468303818, "mean_bias_mm": 1.938419405371245, "mean_mae_mm": 6.0255878024092455, "mean_rmse_mm": 12.456234154152398, "spread_error_ratio": 1.2669970568958728, "zero_fraction": 0.3368595375298037, "correlation": 0.12635875381809467, "pit_histogram": [ 0.01071, 0.06165, 0.10161, 0.1202, 0.16435, 0.25814, 0.17957, 0.04118, 0.02834, 0.03422 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.647771009750755 } }, "full": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 4.911429168203861, 4.765277319334142, 13.304406258078345, 6.006672613872436, 19.99962613781059, 3.8194153393719685, 1.9810722333197834, 4.026665541354658, 6.6389820073102985, 3.827025565834566, 14.571091354089093, 4.269271702501643, 4.303996085713604, 4.701161092078404, 4.67372063587837, 8.23854837550313, 5.101777031227299, 2.5643320912180267, 1.9404017901266755, 3.201056256535453, 2.343032498712753, 2.6428034451568587, 4.431929010981452, 3.676037718567565, 2.0706092342796936, 3.471840641546635, 4.058602747794636, 2.2491320433260573, 8.91920102776485, 2.5867645764856264, 5.43221439874255, 2.25807556789627 ], "crps_clim": [ 2.6897179853589925, 2.867287610747155, 11.613583597576943, 5.886197674812449, 27.77500554826608, 3.3326847383568015, 2.8099124904438204, 2.624493357547262, 7.71221722782229, 3.8123457628295836, 14.271810450341063, 4.481516504313957, 2.329174473258749, 4.367684268620377, 4.603049696222213, 8.657359289497048, 4.649450179185341, 2.4755201422145108, 2.7360868719092664, 3.4495472657845374, 2.254603487223936, 2.505246979400119, 3.1059697413108407, 2.855418618210857, 2.766727211701212, 2.9690284184817233, 4.63923895270541, 2.3781737857801595, 8.084302871907116, 2.606734429626978, 4.181426375823429, 2.68056081509455 ], "rps": [ 0.7690523664031471, 0.762095033872162, 0.5783968800716199, 0.3886801750214786, 0.18765446762327734, 0.44914309414450443, 0.39727702874921667, 0.6190902337826315, 0.38768742417979213, 0.4428865967663468, 0.5091456466818172, 0.39777436731191823, 0.5580644528344626, 0.433137745734621, 0.422641467044877, 0.4946903787200719, 0.44993580599761746, 0.3966113474175226, 0.3388263505850859, 0.3754976889170271, 0.38492498296104183, 0.45233269567144124, 0.38770276456903574, 0.6123842245777235, 0.4041023808983973, 0.5865995086554092, 0.36765205633182707, 0.42059595344039596, 0.48419262387148093, 0.4023867118549469, 0.4770879471047006, 0.4470126203118102 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.49041507783712296, 0.5369376306368444, 0.5100667474154729, 0.4521868075526217, 0.5217072761921506, 0.4133935720112422, 0.47234840051899624, 0.43488625630302596, 0.5255484732176574, 0.43690918492602165, 0.5252437168376151, 0.45828462824902266, 0.38486514853319226, 0.4081996460632345, 0.40282801997469403, 0.5125391329245191, 0.44742012622339855, 0.39216921729503385, 0.5031366769351334, 0.41349098916290067, 0.4059993484819169, 0.41024969837800246, 0.3849070120945385, 0.44180910334017454, 0.4984255550790732, 0.4983306583397526, 0.40315870128184617, 0.42477518647713974, 0.4628459104807814, 0.3911057460601312, 0.4012825990880415, 0.4936916796322727 ], "bias": [ 9.450300351242877, 9.714566921942703, -15.140103378457486, -5.5860922523726195, -22.52911103128739, -0.6479668419055591, 1.5318098098386028, 7.084654755892754, -7.173138999381714, 1.1063235566573562, -17.32710255660432, -0.4321168369702359, 8.027474268334599, -1.782215239985513, -3.450155158949406, -8.311624596534612, -0.205129620909223, 3.8425876609250524, 3.1225796175283502, 0.7203665656696873, 3.6536800371467133, 4.939215162087358, 6.957421406540349, 7.548481072025315, 3.9500841170456593, 7.680645914083512, -2.2343962283444294, 2.30876833299453, -9.60604713033767, 1.5204815789192028, 6.4226500081371345, 4.321333489913696 ], "mae": [ 9.460161691312827, 9.725239493824223, 15.528543543202709, 7.446935205391173, 24.306886439235914, 4.991134606979218, 2.907455354214228, 7.763038217319927, 8.039501948120115, 5.255511187223933, 17.849245970016806, 5.356006207247301, 8.211781848202806, 6.49291168029354, 5.929473867481951, 9.587428003830986, 7.409060007119287, 4.664265360872677, 3.6517342143545224, 4.210853507533523, 3.8881885243428216, 5.0942292895220325, 8.053722367131112, 7.779840264863953, 3.9985112644432275, 7.73122001420733, 5.048391816573379, 3.752362956036888, 10.43181119976546, 3.5614283024245714, 9.292160373834866, 4.432691836348139 ], "mse": [ 212.044429101239, 245.00063474703228, 924.9502864559038, 207.2532209291105, 1500.9471876787006, 64.1406657343693, 27.8044498183832, 138.89755002714398, 187.07850573143517, 82.75347015489487, 845.0761556671888, 94.93493268510078, 173.6525331577662, 159.4982593687035, 140.87909561808505, 282.0010169484761, 187.20792829584408, 51.91700570948479, 40.60350870866167, 49.46323618976941, 40.54488176803601, 71.89912346464853, 210.2797662662109, 142.54471080192207, 42.68986887940368, 146.4627519936588, 120.4844882302159, 40.99519873360035, 382.47464599079865, 37.466652565578144, 188.93031038651358, 50.232149484405376 ], "var": [ 235.4126988220575, 305.50023106019313, 181.99037512115208, 132.97433298598372, 263.2061754714975, 146.95791894436005, 88.23174845098782, 299.8913489289116, 266.64909779284005, 208.98583953405753, 203.16853575332388, 247.028409513578, 266.5736650610993, 283.052940154176, 110.98003212590676, 344.88161150317524, 255.95288403072288, 152.56080289138268, 179.37055881481916, 194.5269481069047, 174.21309881052974, 169.53253761409866, 301.8733078817966, 326.87965796155834, 119.26334476932666, 290.00512600027236, 191.79960088683785, 142.2923277491481, 188.42139188417872, 190.35623817982673, 451.7500224451857, 146.55616560184038 ], "zero": [ 0.16918913834137117, 0.17777384535277596, 0.21900108249857667, 0.23225687816193358, 0.11896016516699413, 0.15254815233021166, 0.257625531747366, 0.1601812873030095, 0.21276443456617108, 0.15286960520787615, 0.2096609003652644, 0.16661114485523001, 0.1412231947839681, 0.15834569111241714, 0.21453141705889217, 0.14677166122130317, 0.16171679709174216, 0.17716075006528995, 0.3269505449020353, 0.20565984549693472, 0.2775481557429885, 0.266952239043055, 0.17162776430802407, 0.20816047167518453, 0.256090989876448, 0.22718124929201866, 0.18834765814709467, 0.24106504830318826, 0.20657456941105362, 0.2484244897974957, 0.11453000392816233, 0.2444143720268285 ] }, "crps": 5.21831785970679, "crpss": -0.017141128642035763, "rps": 0.4620394694408565, "rpss": -0.022553532937255927, "mean_bias_mm": -0.01630547640983515, "mean_mae_mm": 7.557866455102232, "mean_rmse_mm": 14.88613933884081, "spread_error_ratio": 0.9978633793375493, "zero_fraction": 0.20039747122440327, "correlation": 0.0699238534014891, "pit_histogram": [ 0.02505, 0.09178, 0.12141, 0.14173, 0.14925, 0.13614, 0.10696, 0.0769, 0.06443, 0.08634 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.3109984288890796 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 3.979723001844493, 3.7256121226496335, 7.0497062661025325, 1.8337627811584345, 25.13493062005911, 2.616158755825626, 1.6395611924935936, 3.244957983562786, 5.860259299950686, 2.905651534033879, 16.627547223059107, 3.637580228394824, 3.3301289055283823, 4.366265894143029, 2.390237041023406, 7.008029194467277, 6.658160325801233, 2.174434810123885, 1.6226931467031354, 3.166399464717291, 2.1590360327443445, 2.060349422506416, 4.692566809307152, 2.2917742963695327, 1.7908036040324824, 2.545250736156217, 5.120889109059625, 1.7871863247240363, 9.944130576265492, 2.073691705129757, 5.559012311277443, 2.237304367861679 ], "crps_clim": [ 2.1962156929740804, 2.1788012116298163, 5.48867715919352, 1.7773343754893767, 34.32641868083757, 1.8627034830071907, 1.9715211508068933, 2.4850922338242754, 5.825734906672177, 2.4213405279615716, 15.788972303238339, 4.131178922483057, 1.7605249281308137, 3.8097412938741515, 2.031828268076108, 7.918858186445213, 6.382316217886629, 2.0199351210734884, 2.268887809680827, 3.672694877557107, 1.9649460420847091, 2.2337494697367615, 2.0965498141099683, 1.8861829698011934, 2.2991833116108906, 2.179019211557004, 5.967272104997054, 1.9197227040545963, 8.917885769487894, 1.949950438310964, 3.6326875965041756, 2.091802235366322 ], "rps": [ 0.7719540479978794, 0.6688800787442667, 0.5770978640402458, 0.32776447737262027, 0.0851255550594373, 0.47047169776506753, 0.35528457431603816, 0.5101630714898149, 0.5265148494538126, 0.33870624689126166, 0.6016181957103163, 0.3465058849236465, 0.42454499134409857, 0.47934419408945894, 0.42090834805419675, 0.4377177462974366, 0.47789953735524876, 0.47769462286007414, 0.21360551312789666, 0.3740096298102258, 0.3735281531319669, 0.39784882249689174, 0.4213714363397964, 0.4025606556037987, 0.378865958375823, 0.4680855305812742, 0.40828721195682344, 0.38362480975739033, 0.517870225229105, 0.463722946713353, 0.5148080898359648, 0.4944107494413486 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5381511480265782, 0.5320773657724542, 0.49130303512889106, 0.38498928938989757, 0.5629552549427681, 0.38290325595556074, 0.3789331388282408, 0.4247100795822977, 0.5050165255638045, 0.3889502709540875, 0.5619307137731465, 0.5113363017784888, 0.34719627842747985, 0.37617173880982513, 0.3204093918893131, 0.5500282293506343, 0.49836540383658773, 0.43075767900875145, 0.5392014406556627, 0.46954411522421585, 0.5074149366392898, 0.43384618252591467, 0.40967831680734257, 0.35129371669777265, 0.556013264324054, 0.4676500824441632, 0.4913710435949474, 0.4477522470171603, 0.4328472498436856, 0.3755117997097963, 0.35728991623881007, 0.43983412768140073 ], "bias": [ 7.460107422550825, 8.08020525585676, -7.096458302307943, 0.9255512851372449, -29.436582099602262, 3.474066740170131, 0.3767072539472512, 2.7619127897296902, -5.720127105919464, 3.295047246355795, -19.903611992109557, -1.6097472270485735, 6.6507373933452465, 1.3133047783315546, -0.6999590638611654, -6.405481181570377, -5.441761715489147, 4.099771416629877, 2.5260464575732473, -0.604706929550532, 4.004913484632721, 4.135315404569041, 9.462603945748963, 4.7581315390306615, 3.3375167608039775, 5.820804135399066, -4.21735058981671, 2.4813992286632645, -10.636266245039646, 1.7426178853464669, 9.60194766023914, 4.36484474893013 ], "mae": [ 7.464113004465434, 8.093510619406578, 7.6302905613328855, 2.0717208724085183, 29.598966924188254, 3.8644453472246245, 1.5638682232441468, 4.4389467981823545, 6.679475255854315, 3.9765375764102004, 19.926661400414343, 3.7963808714860927, 6.65717611843886, 7.294490981885534, 2.4157418137314997, 7.123089164594722, 8.212925842738713, 4.233643620947087, 3.059162288244429, 3.363698718656896, 4.099073220835526, 4.42397062645193, 9.526022103355263, 5.344432912883571, 3.429719710333781, 5.924210266466493, 6.1011399902714984, 2.9107869724681383, 11.682941567196133, 2.722517562324039, 10.19356234003978, 4.445803074154127 ], "mse": [ 172.89518490899778, 216.10506305352754, 422.17082947600744, 16.136984925998956, 2110.6781747985956, 42.44265437717571, 9.232786790064123, 60.8606883403592, 190.22070694593498, 58.83509414078037, 935.4416943831608, 68.13066680582263, 153.30121658956685, 205.56420615944842, 37.462724594610684, 178.1432297055881, 329.15281954761485, 48.17382703033089, 33.41744278364513, 34.48648974225762, 51.56435105134123, 68.92600004003185, 298.15926131628277, 80.6965918892027, 36.23436428198943, 111.32465902393822, 195.55501723780986, 27.068474065341658, 577.1470543257076, 25.461220643332073, 238.02437493857417, 58.045510293245954 ], "var": [ 180.99384098540133, 345.2658893602068, 176.36599955818468, 133.48004667163391, 259.12107237791406, 181.86586095264548, 79.82721890725315, 264.62185726072187, 294.1661152114468, 236.2253935021191, 170.3774644974702, 213.1658492245877, 270.0275391658111, 330.14709725507265, 76.44958774991919, 476.42027055410165, 200.4210381772514, 141.06146168176514, 181.43931499182895, 209.94649093977102, 191.82849827918722, 202.02998021033665, 400.8533844511047, 382.55124684666333, 108.84256910776905, 280.4672525783124, 237.85639712472133, 123.43169925633062, 185.67690829422347, 167.90186406542165, 599.411857079505, 146.8725106297495 ], "zero": [ 0.2723914809397513, 0.27022250466222336, 0.38698089542812325, 0.42625871986616215, 0.18407227356891673, 0.24205092385584348, 0.47081023296892904, 0.265763575506043, 0.3983052580236054, 0.26190129932457795, 0.3688884021751464, 0.27888581028310033, 0.2515041213412062, 0.21639285671609843, 0.37474061505324163, 0.23129402256849738, 0.2522596985906883, 0.29666789920955555, 0.5418533371560738, 0.3110924675130208, 0.45803961646312935, 0.4347654651307952, 0.23436078535726715, 0.34711201430196387, 0.39963321105634914, 0.3882849778854912, 0.285983392255033, 0.39460339970313063, 0.3485983335245616, 0.3900548699900812, 0.12274716544067268, 0.3649709503831102 ] }, "crps": 4.726056096471142, "crpss": -0.02560778667722463, "rps": 0.4409623661302056, "rpss": 0.024516225059236896, "mean_bias_mm": -0.03432811310388528, "mean_mae_mm": 6.633407073457368, "mean_rmse_mm": 14.886087636832132, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0249359759471057, "zero_fraction": 0.3272340805075747, "correlation": 0.13948996357229987, "pit_histogram": [ 0.01103, 0.04695, 0.09937, 0.1269, 0.19184, 0.20331, 0.14183, 0.07997, 0.0418, 0.05701 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.5277517026422547 } }, "distribution_full": { "ethiopia": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0003659791119426, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.0034093969890202106 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0040502231746824, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.25531895103283625 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean_abs_log": 7.447673028984464 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 1.1680418920667652, "area_mean_abs_log": 2.1943302791562873 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.1083788471901703, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.27272378807189523 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.10551470588235284, "area_mean": 0.19089681979113032 } }, "ondj_domain": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 1.000169702052141, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.0041711469749227716 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0065169834038385, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.5308302608728963 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean_abs_log": 11.740479538475032 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 1.106203343391763, "area_mean_abs_log": 3.876721028723572 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.539111738110304, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.4422731513951652 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.32691176470588224, "area_mean": 0.3272340805075743 } } } }, "dc": { "training": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 4.688146622020303, 4.799631002417758, 14.004247938944358, 6.868091880078917, 17.09893846527874, 4.861750585675308, 1.8577090067818371, 5.066440310112882, 6.7617195766751665, 4.0847947426731395, 16.13133834397997, 4.461582367064241, 5.152801902678914, 4.763520954830207, 5.165415565937143, 7.743627557081553, 5.982815852105416, 2.5124040609818494, 1.7037398214772586, 3.5410976597392794, 1.8136450922920775, 1.9670797774706912, 4.8021241844597204, 4.52507377933709 ], "crps_clim": [ 3.147316707451114, 3.345505329459557, 10.984966213801052, 5.565431468435425, 27.0718763908127, 3.331872595873229, 3.2339333066026654, 2.898578484108726, 7.306127788484703, 3.578837768945852, 13.61369806885984, 4.185041134572365, 2.552105347257009, 4.271290701634523, 4.644138020744405, 8.101898044577364, 4.707631815249459, 2.7497107572454813, 3.224323436142348, 3.3810268425956997, 2.5984657102999638, 2.914534006884459, 3.0779701844454106, 3.298398263301115 ], "rps": [ 0.7072229176517009, 0.7101561413788905, 0.8029801036181686, 0.5783423390144968, 0.19235854903922261, 0.6742142196721115, 0.26581754438991567, 0.7822353565002115, 0.42129326542282236, 0.5651625104457221, 0.8747179494433812, 0.44369094530696407, 0.7356127943918533, 0.5231017994239284, 0.5871973937868212, 0.496780447073945, 0.6656264163261493, 0.5228958615429029, 0.25575798221748924, 0.4479376331843042, 0.43909087410365555, 0.33617226003635853, 0.44878384169304164, 0.7259297870206259 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.49730130537920497, 0.5299108646278966, 0.4968209717644765, 0.45140321931037847, 0.5120439289026995, 0.41031169775019555, 0.4779713217459693, 0.4530884207483443, 0.5043277856041234, 0.41692670592375, 0.5103230613419248, 0.4397744822519408, 0.3965890908147674, 0.3999865051869261, 0.4105095348843729, 0.49534705826094655, 0.4525412470698913, 0.40263417109494526, 0.4947135592926832, 0.4107579460380184, 0.4281083679843292, 0.43735476661089284, 0.37946484897479493, 0.465353650018479 ], "bias": [ 10.39549864677546, 11.255244026415372, -15.926651025895842, -6.876465911585955, -13.54478604127792, -2.8511806448721906, -0.5775977151923706, 9.616446507726964, -5.453106205756933, 0.9091974085174197, -17.856206028345053, 0.8880751580888848, 10.630440877878192, -1.1769325328474163, -5.2444083375469, -6.645158861802018, 0.8000317214202461, 3.4794629350091975, 2.091859484058865, 1.0149428124552544, 2.970232962133581, 3.636790138975118, 9.756305385654102, 10.201973662079512 ], "mae": [ 10.6562790097475, 11.374425801682023, 16.304746206709876, 8.278965512238718, 19.607230066965037, 5.8532363477626035, 2.201510655455983, 10.438881776554124, 8.031072690598, 5.626584519916225, 18.6189215400012, 6.248531381398076, 11.057307130766839, 7.292556908434487, 6.304018546466175, 8.51041051758127, 9.33068173353903, 4.77653170974237, 3.331709952204132, 4.736224923199209, 3.719650913210946, 4.359044126379292, 10.973474466574446, 10.514932545531641 ], "mse": [ 269.381846725951, 337.9050508563563, 973.4253410423264, 245.2961695050927, 984.2594344260799, 86.93538598684883, 24.006333198159506, 242.38920690733556, 180.57325911258977, 98.0286939534714, 892.5301079467476, 115.97134670992044, 295.4714533761022, 175.34956724565555, 152.75976706995934, 236.8855599718974, 259.2588547497197, 50.44133842800572, 34.00497333472619, 57.245249732453175, 32.23112826126456, 53.28252983283271, 351.49569295398567, 220.1920358516683 ], "var": [ 367.55083325803184, 459.0960930264157, 122.38121914069401, 113.43971697386357, 1547.5583500542712, 181.67209196370925, 36.961108237823865, 461.41764993320925, 367.8642784285215, 418.3091967074209, 203.64155391643897, 384.9653862612461, 516.1036832660825, 355.17202819840634, 102.51394855122521, 478.11241455283516, 396.7574740494484, 171.32405239553853, 87.02172865623976, 308.0570801429224, 133.24852008941966, 141.19818208766947, 766.9715060278675, 378.5326499991387 ], "zero": [ 0.009511621446478546, 0.009511621446478546, 0.009570376762508145, 0.009804373935076036, 0.009716858331535383, 0.00968779564143146, 0.009511621446478546, 0.010037021221681812, 0.009746087113633653, 0.009891139405354538, 0.009921181889386866, 0.009540825877880403, 0.009658103208166385, 0.010008544884537767, 0.010125003225957316, 0.00971704447188, 0.00971692130486395, 0.009919825504669114, 0.009511621446478546, 0.010008854559379637, 0.009628320671698847, 0.009511621446478546, 0.009774793025439765, 0.009511621446478546 ] }, "crps": 5.848239043753909, "crpss": -0.04913162509728397, "rps": 0.5501282888618618, "rpss": -0.21423650162018681, "mean_bias_mm": 0.06225035091939871, "mean_mae_mm": 8.6727887076108, "mean_rmse_mm": 16.2907442115392, "spread_error_ratio": 1.1552064771343964, "zero_fraction": 0.009730949988081349, "correlation": 0.08127798520300686, "pit_histogram": [ 0.20123, 0.02746, 0.03543, 0.05227, 0.07141, 0.07896, 0.08627, 0.1086, 0.14166, 0.19672 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.49641109595584176 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 2.441683069999713, 3.6503989508112786, 7.537541768124167, 1.8096969476572289, 19.843118736146014, 2.111290404179659, 1.7334486637573714, 4.17214322080538, 5.522042381879147, 3.0128410865201167, 19.58852222312215, 4.141480664302883, 2.7227358939806123, 4.114590238289754, 2.7625618259900393, 6.173189834262863, 7.137078151138107, 1.9060067024144436, 1.1912639425625429, 3.7154394659846584, 1.4468972338280812, 1.7675552296601882, 5.00704021884702, 3.8158596771546134 ], "crps_clim": [ 2.4548094454165224, 2.4172161936748946, 5.333194544027777, 1.8549628212328, 34.12225179677904, 1.8644358450759109, 2.122993377234286, 2.4401382645813325, 5.73783658336709, 2.3217318677782153, 15.529706680297545, 3.9621897190875477, 1.8639890286330005, 3.876280862498442, 2.06925731997254, 7.631461938517677, 6.263162085572975, 2.1837307589862482, 2.5462616594235836, 3.4498462746206284, 2.1833797898673692, 2.4890121894953605, 2.173582577005678, 2.0020724813943143 ], "rps": [ 0.32758900603004204, 0.7107247127832342, 0.8183015223310094, 0.311885766618302, 0.054479519574069005, 0.3850763707768608, 0.39141107428775423, 0.8493896504715739, 0.2976720552271539, 0.5768849839852598, 1.307703744237667, 0.46614364064498715, 0.5381785609324489, 0.479436542053033, 0.6923003403186699, 0.4843402664174183, 0.5446398948416232, 0.5874585136313117, 0.20301587988955058, 0.48434167051179383, 0.5319353907101886, 0.3456884671883459, 0.5520066415193605, 0.737389028120967 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5271012391842729, 0.5237026472803199, 0.4726651024187634, 0.4183814425674277, 0.5463137996219282, 0.3948310596898503, 0.4065592098294793, 0.42831468140896223, 0.49352864345894915, 0.3706979572196848, 0.5445864342119232, 0.4920445653961977, 0.3565574386141641, 0.3975457684832652, 0.35150037945920126, 0.5287991707856597, 0.48528999945591406, 0.42598320924629246, 0.518005444784471, 0.4652291028680146, 0.5021412621347012, 0.4343952625071855, 0.40487741585469383, 0.3925124516437722 ], "bias": [ 5.722394961714522, 9.49949397677502, -8.104231137634855, -0.48414963744919853, -20.682445698688998, 1.8935871479123485, -1.201643419364884, 4.50026946889692, -2.8995611558824663, 2.6985405463077488, -21.618097340262747, -1.5107149001022784, 6.345561828526499, 2.5117423847790694, -2.820266533903145, -3.4941707814311935, -5.875694776843116, 3.8731120557306764, 2.357474556911592, 0.22033872848544428, 3.9687384040854656, 3.5116339379594796, 13.652689384092703, 8.81857970712026 ], "mae": [ 6.341076750339752, 9.690145115559615, 8.528143048937052, 2.2284684770664613, 21.76554808401186, 3.3492874565079362, 1.8814823795269795, 6.45957451749146, 7.107181089115286, 4.498656089319862, 21.618104376068246, 4.802178649851646, 7.132076959423085, 8.18407879680516, 3.0646401657482176, 5.169490113278758, 9.186498471172898, 4.058382562463986, 2.8361473957089327, 3.813360811602083, 4.160995131191187, 4.331084526184957, 13.898104995863847, 9.368953243658462 ], "mse": [ 140.7448482586889, 287.7117759972413, 458.89596154069073, 17.300583005618282, 1212.9995409128335, 35.34891454260249, 9.483713979928988, 107.48907288391091, 194.36398677672562, 82.96406498373508, 1057.4725198056308, 89.85644915250168, 190.76751550609686, 229.03126775970836, 51.43841403101938, 104.7823779508335, 392.3624713926306, 36.203462441993494, 27.143555907261238, 40.26294517787667, 42.5605887400822, 59.11545133845225, 549.8880895077094, 190.32598429651935 ], "var": [ 253.8482450895, 488.47528532216495, 109.91904981604978, 70.22876490384726, 1716.6770756681112, 244.26842533489366, 24.287205291511402, 391.75126159479737, 361.4958930264597, 525.5867866651718, 153.51409722064437, 339.73242402622867, 455.0645625448327, 488.8175903169498, 50.19591851180647, 814.1629349346174, 285.66734416414096, 139.92737395683505, 77.92486992330241, 354.0327620743361, 141.99950683642402, 137.89980112148405, 1089.010974709131, 483.7529154196841 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 4.888517772142418, "crpss": 0.013197336430955109, "rps": 0.5282497184626094, "rpss": -0.16508928371553333, "mean_bias_mm": 0.03679923782228611, "mean_mae_mm": 7.228069133620739, "mean_rmse_mm": 15.286859220545015, "spread_error_ratio": 1.2806442584515045, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.247327495470872, "pit_histogram": [ 0.22466, 0.02006, 0.02599, 0.03507, 0.04787, 0.05745, 0.06374, 0.09312, 0.16787, 0.26417 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.7133992866697559 } }, "operational": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 1.4420125376571604, 3.5831891708019508, 4.401275988362117, 2.0967556752464893, 8.905816981923904, 2.3958667155956075, 7.304608184255045, 1.5244955180402988 ], "crps_clim": [ 3.000358402837215, 3.2118104787747215, 4.432332626338175, 2.616293468105364, 7.502465706182092, 2.7696475536717284, 4.029967303787228, 2.9260298617309384 ], "rps": [ 0.19245643163240925, 0.6505413134378158, 0.5198525172934599, 0.36572987998666107, 0.6293676572510193, 0.5340309848024817, 0.6349126718115424, 0.26056479381207076 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5137613090872692, 0.49705239615939123, 0.40610073525670304, 0.44669601338418186, 0.4481977724282379, 0.39955792469123536, 0.39062127201913327, 0.49615040098932883 ], "bias": [ 1.8737132329810096, 8.92529774134489, -2.818956656585247, 0.5720461238321144, -9.926041048164661, 0.8004645207433406, 12.833732418010246, 2.8106181158073102 ], "mae": [ 2.656871416102267, 9.061201491420624, 5.057354247247147, 3.2644379962366203, 10.790020256284096, 3.4619231292207093, 15.100952062909846, 3.5732743665503985 ], "mse": [ 18.531113802270397, 180.66419283676447, 114.38391290304897, 39.98957172037872, 390.8688446360075, 34.03799196640048, 529.5421900552982, 31.198272363797788 ], "var": [ 71.39969985017781, 282.31538573946756, 305.811072975654, 87.59484734458104, 163.54199240625655, 121.19677544622856, 1700.8769583185342, 100.42851905334108 ], "zero": [ 0.009730949988081349, 0.009730949988081349, 0.009730949988081349, 0.009730949988081349, 0.009730949988081349, 0.009730949988081349, 0.009730949988081349, 0.009730949988081349 ] }, "crps": 3.9567525964853214, "crpss": -0.03821440471918547, "rps": 0.47343203125343253, "rpss": -0.05261566823493791, "mean_bias_mm": 1.883859305996125, "mean_mae_mm": 6.620754370746464, "mean_rmse_mm": 12.938392917418136, "spread_error_ratio": 1.4544896123650657, "zero_fraction": 0.009730949988081349, "correlation": 0.16745117661757508, "pit_histogram": [ 0.14066, 0.02359, 0.0284, 0.05584, 0.09907, 0.1073, 0.09819, 0.12562, 0.14837, 0.17296 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.38983974786623915 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 1.1453122118091696, 2.380869254402181, 5.270347707429727, 1.2671613586997776, 9.68793692982948, 1.7949505400107149, 8.460465198997163, 1.102942099295233 ], "crps_clim": [ 2.366231987002849, 2.259909659422711, 5.567918347623332, 1.9966771549125995, 8.330258482082852, 1.9477425770778494, 3.4305474768916633, 2.1733161564516763 ], "rps": [ 0.13439780380980926, 0.6446320628405303, 0.6271592042982894, 0.33627467573591624, 0.5875757307925208, 0.7020625596460864, 0.7449079116194299, 0.3345396754360488 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5473323710222779, 0.45950888532469003, 0.47310561454117583, 0.451258434482434, 0.43752408372393053, 0.3769753182133201, 0.34410807043894076, 0.45220364528394885 ], "bias": [ 1.4520577672417656, 6.7973774759830565, -3.98056212916835, 0.930267052991929, -10.710242802720582, 0.5721335203826141, 19.223938975238063, 3.3971146683721942 ], "mae": [ 2.231414611468681, 7.017265183873483, 5.989719237467287, 2.1062201682075328, 11.79319395909466, 2.531954374121525, 19.290484705776624, 3.4722467008002513 ], "mse": [ 13.960610580951144, 129.88973928775943, 173.8197758787644, 14.786061437381695, 583.5495459078912, 17.645830845074467, 806.5696185116085, 31.408517814353132 ], "var": [ 56.346771395532485, 274.2897005761787, 416.85806395334083, 69.97133043208521, 172.27549537583042, 98.60375440262884, 2839.9192188972497, 110.67018982131101 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 3.888748162559181, "crpss": -0.10819743307588436, "rps": 0.5139437030223288, "rpss": -0.16079349532224718, "mean_bias_mm": 2.2102605660400862, "mean_mae_mm": 6.804062367601255, "mean_rmse_mm": 14.881320927020322, "spread_error_ratio": 1.5098956373008985, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.09842850611869658, "pit_histogram": [ 0.19558, 0.02068, 0.02492, 0.04713, 0.06898, 0.08158, 0.06866, 0.08645, 0.18217, 0.22384 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.6031862580013703 } }, "full": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 4.394169684314886, 4.401187608585034, 14.244934010178865, 7.10849475113348, 18.132677584249173, 4.915384318664078, 1.9144595338395347, 4.847098558324446, 6.8850037977231695, 4.341307914867424, 16.510049854849996, 4.732416581103257, 5.020765969706765, 4.707521349006931, 5.177350883528444, 8.26293367024735, 5.767371063003642, 2.3937933399698585, 1.593240790601356, 3.6480988799846985, 1.7202241173672794, 1.8411140596713689, 4.539878653248614, 4.2406285333723295, 1.4092205203828259, 3.557610534967719, 4.621536380284166, 2.0449023638894763, 9.39875189071791, 2.3886411496323334, 7.339452562967382, 1.4123058789991263 ], "crps_clim": [ 2.6897179853589925, 2.867287610747155, 11.613583597576943, 5.886197674812449, 27.77500554826608, 3.3326847383568015, 2.8099124904438204, 2.624493357547262, 7.71221722782229, 3.8123457628295836, 14.271810450341063, 4.481516504313957, 2.329174473258749, 4.367684268620377, 4.603049696222213, 8.657359289497048, 4.649450179185341, 2.4755201422145108, 2.7360868719092664, 3.4495472657845374, 2.254603487223936, 2.505246979400119, 3.1059697413108407, 2.855418618210857, 2.766727211701212, 2.9690284184817233, 4.63923895270541, 2.3781737857801595, 8.084302871907116, 2.606734429626978, 4.181426375823429, 2.68056081509455 ], "rps": [ 0.7323454532102338, 0.7767851888837342, 0.7987595824965358, 0.6047115081350183, 0.19523572947224968, 0.6866380230719197, 0.29131082941030795, 0.7903833310281394, 0.3855384014100218, 0.6051644576618695, 0.8811496724201415, 0.45031512829421544, 0.741329015952137, 0.5103595585767279, 0.6191450437853426, 0.5147308147506016, 0.6514668682071734, 0.545067587677237, 0.25512930993471217, 0.4567886960210549, 0.43256220570203363, 0.3533800904846018, 0.4034432408898278, 0.7134242418542324, 0.20617026802143978, 0.7253684991976577, 0.5473068879676941, 0.37088224496399536, 0.6526473475392837, 0.5705195470797753, 0.6343954178288438, 0.25473942067928124 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.49041507783712296, 0.5369376306368444, 0.5100667474154729, 0.4521868075526217, 0.5217072761921506, 0.4133935720112422, 0.47234840051899624, 0.43488625630302596, 0.5255484732176574, 0.43690918492602165, 0.5252437168376151, 0.45828462824902266, 0.38486514853319226, 0.4081996460632345, 0.40282801997469403, 0.5125391329245191, 0.44742012622339855, 0.39216921729503385, 0.5031366769351334, 0.41349098916290067, 0.4059993484819169, 0.41024969837800246, 0.3849070120945385, 0.44180910334017454, 0.4984255550790732, 0.4983306583397526, 0.40315870128184617, 0.42477518647713974, 0.4628459104807814, 0.3911057460601312, 0.4012825990880415, 0.4936916796322727 ], "bias": [ 9.76307605821956, 10.456689311358737, -16.140156097633717, -7.035312012740562, -14.305075242313608, -3.1628599440017298, -0.6956257494444794, 8.805888007603043, -6.078792378379354, 0.41380436715114416, -18.006259953284108, 0.3287403489003031, 10.0261012426292, -1.7435905770938336, -5.3535969750459484, -7.186364883587566, 0.07858583399323284, 3.0087096026888247, 1.8006916595914984, 0.4480950683339776, 2.6132952784643813, 3.2554090896740924, 8.634134317971721, 9.440843666128597, 1.6455206396279092, 8.70568049729663, -3.4002760067987885, 0.29474115346065977, -10.546155286365417, 0.508659863378312, 12.615859331319, 2.5151537462803666 ], "mae": [ 10.032922414068228, 10.557700173263372, 16.483107661639554, 8.45507543416035, 20.370291740627824, 5.736072004423711, 2.2319181054574977, 9.688382069172938, 7.978531380659162, 5.677589337869617, 18.940976081026275, 6.426639065814165, 10.535378638325046, 6.8938653571092035, 6.253580140250736, 9.011029460809517, 8.648601397122379, 4.217261042438501, 2.9879794087212654, 4.61236795906798, 3.3337555798901573, 3.9378070657308526, 9.984746379156077, 9.768086824421175, 2.438573712940077, 8.827250123970368, 5.146741958485983, 2.9745748648120194, 11.137080102561548, 3.305713341988176, 14.787647609168967, 3.2126083330165924 ], "mse": [ 236.8113401898471, 294.36349748387414, 982.5239728593759, 250.57926708467113, 1047.6587676375584, 85.35220246686184, 23.641058783875803, 207.1119589437212, 184.23756221421684, 100.20310592629316, 916.6163732176412, 123.12806225073824, 278.9659348057757, 168.0723857565683, 149.34743294251237, 257.96227880624156, 237.25317953289814, 38.9140602896258, 28.521444923314768, 55.565696448388, 26.79165486348926, 45.72133526598608, 301.1040493654797, 189.12076509735687, 15.651482470904831, 172.11139599203577, 123.36702025301493, 35.86745065817716, 420.9040250124046, 31.2436745614124, 511.45775828263396, 26.189321154990246 ], "var": [ 342.0304781047794, 417.0798457144833, 113.32581720754206, 107.163591160521, 1500.0420939407968, 166.54740945054178, 35.28042590296259, 416.54465929423395, 328.08381400986866, 383.71925609730187, 194.52588566663928, 348.80870173757177, 482.98254883417496, 322.501747190967, 98.25950914148036, 427.18408900905393, 354.42086599258613, 152.47284373353475, 80.27717329000434, 274.9008935598672, 122.37308847311263, 130.23516326438713, 673.1958231994943, 336.4320329587944, 64.4819730043163, 263.18447439358357, 284.78646984271364, 79.58840830067587, 146.45986829071123, 111.99814715423817, 1751.47910711648, 89.77222956727556 ], "zero": [ 0.009330494819992883, 0.009330494819992883, 0.009374087473821294, 0.009547698279274892, 0.009482767347615696, 0.009461204706570851, 0.009330494819992883, 0.009720307556434014, 0.009504453218204737, 0.009612072660449264, 0.009634362245376475, 0.009352162623936195, 0.009439174836729021, 0.009699179951456176, 0.009785584527348097, 0.009482905451742348, 0.009482814069762698, 0.009633355895424595, 0.009330494819992883, 0.009699409710209822, 0.009417078116124074, 0.009330494819992883, 0.009525751152770563, 0.009330494819992883, 0.009330494819992883, 0.009439102615040693, 0.009352270682950567, 0.009591003431527634, 0.009807124060152425, 0.009504224827764226, 0.009807124060152425, 0.009352162623936195 ] }, "crps": 5.422266462168216, "crpss": -0.05689426696547173, "rps": 0.5424123003940012, "rpss": -0.2004290775152222, "mean_bias_mm": 0.05330043679318991, "mean_mae_mm": 7.956057961505291, "mean_rmse_mm": 15.376889635445911, "spread_error_ratio": 1.1836199648240204, "zero_fraction": 0.00950065143327266, "correlation": 0.0900310015528887, "pit_histogram": [ 0.18954, 0.02491, 0.02782, 0.04406, 0.07158, 0.08651, 0.09413, 0.11296, 0.14663, 0.20185 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.5019738592797938 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 2.2742021987919414, 3.2862453294650247, 7.683223834479988, 1.8977393388977772, 21.021732379263213, 2.169575567344722, 1.8333973609591105, 4.212904033343791, 5.553251808556587, 3.1326707851858866, 19.745572715979502, 4.2992887341315535, 2.59028701977126, 3.963071401461251, 2.8772237235652356, 6.596843442463051, 7.202953304368765, 1.920481675731814, 1.1694592559109689, 4.000556356434276, 1.3526594672196652, 1.692295113404941, 4.518911514182361, 3.565515523849443, 1.1692952296537396, 2.2980701974251407, 5.631553681816234, 1.2981138447523444, 10.269845248315386, 1.9153372072195638, 8.8297230494376, 1.067938201329797 ], "crps_clim": [ 2.1962156929740804, 2.1788012116298163, 5.48867715919352, 1.7773343754893767, 34.32641868083757, 1.8627034830071907, 1.9715211508068933, 2.4850922338242754, 5.825734906672177, 2.4213405279615716, 15.788972303238339, 4.131178922483057, 1.7605249281308137, 3.8097412938741515, 2.031828268076108, 7.918858186445213, 6.382316217886629, 2.0199351210734884, 2.268887809680827, 3.672694877557107, 1.9649460420847091, 2.2337494697367615, 2.0965498141099683, 1.8861829698011934, 2.2991833116108906, 2.179019211557004, 5.967272104997054, 1.9197227040545963, 8.917885769487894, 1.949950438310964, 3.6326875965041756, 2.091802235366322 ], "rps": [ 0.31062259641898227, 0.6948976988475886, 0.8880732419912442, 0.32642964174671296, 0.05756431401438783, 0.37658021378813716, 0.4126979072169722, 0.8271328667969624, 0.27463879384620166, 0.643350085745755, 1.329009607592575, 0.4648164032880198, 0.567660429276976, 0.43196725880939224, 0.7578858330688538, 0.5095085622603693, 0.5755894913371885, 0.6676294200141328, 0.18430343077423628, 0.5087983987349213, 0.49312252542969537, 0.3533101926517881, 0.4333347202089336, 0.6902020584903293, 0.12692129680130534, 0.671320370923856, 0.6808807851558795, 0.334081405699919, 0.6164007402886552, 0.7948201694139364, 0.7538110408312445, 0.31879394459606386 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5381511480265782, 0.5320773657724542, 0.49130303512889106, 0.38498928938989757, 0.5629552549427681, 0.38290325595556074, 0.3789331388282408, 0.4247100795822977, 0.5050165255638045, 0.3889502709540875, 0.5619307137731465, 0.5113363017784888, 0.34719627842747985, 0.37617173880982513, 0.3204093918893131, 0.5500282293506343, 0.49836540383658773, 0.43075767900875145, 0.5392014406556627, 0.46954411522421585, 0.5074149366392898, 0.43384618252591467, 0.40967831680734257, 0.35129371669777265, 0.556013264324054, 0.4676500824441632, 0.4913710435949474, 0.4477522470171603, 0.4328472498436856, 0.3755117997097963, 0.35728991623881007, 0.43983412768140073 ], "bias": [ 5.232790571913068, 8.690763240996745, -8.385604551608587, -0.7595344763794327, -21.57478419374282, 1.3948849869573008, -1.3706087526991133, 3.7970895704416976, -3.618133286362636, 2.063919833469897, -21.78520821250406, -2.1347304212570486, 5.674209970526282, 1.7976232977502287, -3.016558305860773, -4.269364260527749, -6.41856989349687, 3.3684709880053245, 2.0512247399072345, -0.39640272953014777, 3.494850156869788, 3.10152356720075, 12.268179187167679, 7.8097827263896455, 1.2196310377920692, 6.420697172368441, -4.7212698242228734, 0.6497369230690813, -11.404476404100885, 0.2656005113026987, 19.279276872763457, 3.070805998192445 ], "mae": [ 5.877849625535647, 8.868321737132456, 8.701331355061564, 2.194965789217151, 22.592902410195062, 3.0117091422908393, 1.9822919078108419, 5.936074638687884, 6.873561192193211, 4.140801489940042, 21.78520821250406, 4.81711327166546, 6.522362810414902, 7.482297687556772, 3.2219931279557255, 5.56505533104703, 8.985782565838766, 3.650896030267273, 2.5839064147132045, 4.026853194538877, 3.6971325660763794, 3.9753846611959474, 12.516215221028816, 8.407288166142482, 2.111501240203401, 6.64334472563696, 6.217690269867321, 1.9309203028696624, 12.20716093419944, 2.5459549841164186, 19.325023065598042, 3.1510743118191336 ], "mse": [ 126.96446533834998, 255.545740312678, 463.20135098459525, 17.349748534054775, 1298.9354447224148, 30.249060473719798, 10.41880644920277, 92.09191206968204, 193.73261865492577, 68.99445236042394, 1070.7398141731262, 92.55962574277972, 169.52139469169555, 210.88315360357996, 52.98213439571498, 120.34590854695648, 392.1941145011479, 29.13233052957415, 23.858580814016637, 43.40353798380688, 35.610022128194466, 52.701027366369495, 470.32961423181695, 155.30338400358323, 12.406398298384016, 121.53247817592046, 189.33833629529713, 12.814861502034951, 626.9222242522097, 17.326660839435608, 808.216559581851, 27.679747877202246 ], "var": [ 233.16107633474059, 439.2835973546652, 98.83053487133476, 62.15322205655589, 1725.3135394503886, 219.48083817145795, 21.993777974376393, 345.6204984689886, 312.87832899980435, 474.61010437729414, 143.33930332839884, 297.3879154256557, 412.2801228023622, 441.8139213913541, 45.65334319799968, 722.5531887618783, 249.4690717266314, 118.49970657832827, 69.76531613453275, 310.6858416453851, 125.54634997442483, 123.85405239041242, 941.6228006502187, 410.43072643417275, 49.03706593734004, 247.55959250089109, 385.08690460985804, 60.87239732549189, 147.8711436601147, 88.44986886866423, 2966.121990116331, 97.19530792888693 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 4.719998079522248, "crpss": -0.024293128275423514, "rps": 0.533629857689413, "rpss": -0.18048003181810213, "mean_bias_mm": 0.05611925127471373, "mean_mae_mm": 6.923436511978775, "mean_rmse_mm": 15.096859679080142, "spread_error_ratio": 1.3033059505871263, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.1977154635778851, "pit_histogram": [ 0.19978, 0.01738, 0.01769, 0.03557, 0.05435, 0.0617, 0.06674, 0.08827, 0.16463, 0.29391 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.7166331687197096 } }, "distribution_full": { "ethiopia": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0043980352697848, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.010552424663193023 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 1.343506194390604, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.4377856055864772 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.623399196521615, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.581061311170654 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9571190010956427, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.11364376293077397 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.1237889389712044, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.19852292483203632 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": 2.790853241987176e-17 } }, "ondj_domain": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0104712432620298, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.0149338379552489 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 1.5016763589547533, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.6942475746561821 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.43720469509428894, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.8518643253805116 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 0.8653674756087419, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.1678873229872722 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.327541874459202, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.33815131970015294 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": 0.0 } } } }, "loci": { "training": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 3.8793407668184026, 3.5426605351910427, 15.113367064314168, 7.136461713867206, 18.01576350323672, 4.960677573887145, 2.361883152673329, 3.9195248956591224, 8.639674028899613, 4.454768209824037, 16.62622030554104, 5.492445644029508, 3.7067981410865207, 6.1078688614415775, 5.848615079036644, 9.826951756288217, 6.336575360947498, 2.745043408554789, 2.08461560047738, 4.191734622627491, 2.3987513913354044, 2.1743087910361725, 4.408913901646718, 2.994901936343061 ], "crps_clim": [ 3.147316707451114, 3.345505329459557, 10.984966213801052, 5.565431468435425, 27.0718763908127, 3.331872595873229, 3.2339333066026654, 2.898578484108726, 7.306127788484703, 3.578837768945852, 13.61369806885984, 4.185041134572365, 2.552105347257009, 4.271290701634523, 4.644138020744405, 8.101898044577364, 4.707631815249459, 2.7497107572454813, 3.224323436142348, 3.3810268425956997, 2.5984657102999638, 2.914534006884459, 3.0779701844454106, 3.298398263301115 ], "rps": [ 0.4297481286121129, 0.3507380179753694, 0.942477448016103, 0.5462741811564964, 0.4028797601220258, 0.608961251052318, 0.2567068765893847, 0.3704476139471714, 0.7926708901551917, 0.514903048810196, 0.8937339393761593, 0.5816839200674948, 0.48179994291713174, 0.6232838310850802, 0.6629550079519189, 0.6873296587965767, 0.5913551699789077, 0.4829117920150365, 0.21561423908710536, 0.5654605002444407, 0.330982715874412, 0.3355789898528418, 0.4588836009115864, 0.40641092165773557 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.49730130537920497, 0.5299108646278966, 0.4968209717644765, 0.45140321931037847, 0.5120439289026995, 0.41031169775019555, 0.4779713217459693, 0.4530884207483443, 0.5043277856041234, 0.41692670592375, 0.5103230613419248, 0.4397744822519408, 0.3965890908147674, 0.3999865051869261, 0.4105095348843729, 0.49534705826094655, 0.4525412470698913, 0.40263417109494526, 0.4947135592926832, 0.4107579460380184, 0.4281083679843292, 0.43735476661089284, 0.37946484897479493, 0.465353650018479 ], "bias": [ 9.492814456012749, 10.111386527176535, -16.338569914822564, -7.255672329103528, -16.420613168221998, -3.220970792345654, -0.6245647807955117, 8.026828060786858, -6.909579854663831, 0.05201818115899031, -18.252360605799108, -0.4151381590172216, 9.217227985162992, -2.2254608826471105, -5.5583448078618565, -7.921753920820315, -0.22241430228231357, 2.426688813131307, 1.8181363968781281, -0.17531374847541686, 2.3420637241519184, 3.2391855789539727, 8.057190387288115, 8.55008823240509 ], "mae": [ 9.919923896301912, 10.43521126554469, 16.461620609029723, 8.308425054044426, 21.063789500800596, 5.6007193674340146, 2.3576246881493494, 9.14519831718281, 8.17834241403226, 5.379474802712566, 18.840129253192753, 5.895668179778217, 9.946113449922336, 6.713545282029961, 6.658910327315147, 8.991596619251574, 8.937128198978055, 4.057097709795122, 3.34097976053798, 4.50860100812258, 3.378929377810972, 4.187467556130462, 9.475541037280669, 9.027884186134065 ], "mse": [ 244.66671195351356, 302.65173914368285, 981.800794045594, 245.74325518446867, 1139.2097717264935, 81.62325824115358, 25.346615872889984, 209.7027296414078, 191.17116007089163, 88.27689303770033, 911.3759457666845, 110.55317123157383, 253.75220692666025, 169.1959868446891, 158.40349486247237, 256.3596354481986, 253.95526958781247, 36.877242506827095, 33.2470066261069, 53.825382478413545, 27.227706007964915, 49.07223655234736, 280.2327697776069, 181.43569684961912 ], "var": [ 639.4105382757988, 1107.2529548762848, 430.05268982725727, 236.77379985442835, 1570.239239151627, 251.77345516983155, 119.53611748036789, 937.3363517934541, 841.8783476025378, 477.62905967569435, 427.3392614137249, 649.8002388540589, 1055.5224641727314, 862.1650727745618, 223.32659540215298, 968.9700524263998, 760.1525797819957, 348.5255434694003, 401.94527503764436, 507.92953840613694, 339.77259990725355, 316.3474421440039, 1055.9641452196006, 1313.1664051722723 ], "zero": [ 0.2537870219294214, 0.26122969314554995, 0.2967107626919697, 0.31549052314070974, 0.21437961820077384, 0.257218571846167, 0.3348419524475441, 0.24436248283650155, 0.2778608193464689, 0.25196360366333964, 0.29221523798343235, 0.2528423276238362, 0.23634074693074467, 0.2557055477729584, 0.29878453639374675, 0.2526847614307354, 0.24731369026718458, 0.26693841302593524, 0.3813155695280394, 0.2804896344527334, 0.344918770046487, 0.3332409409620604, 0.25554670900780746, 0.28563618097877974 ] }, "crps": 6.1236610935317835, "crpss": -0.09854034120982003, "rps": 0.5222413102605331, "rpss": -0.1526846999346403, "mean_bias_mm": -0.9252970384895737, "mean_mae_mm": 8.36708007756301, "mean_rmse_mm": 16.18346208374562, "spread_error_ratio": 1.5875925352930185, "zero_fraction": 0.27882575481887195, "correlation": 0.08222676091329077, "pit_histogram": [ 0.0025, 0.01133, 0.03081, 0.05294, 0.07844, 0.10266, 0.13021, 0.15282, 0.19729, 0.24098 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.6479410389166439 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 2.3188566438364577, 2.452879088429553, 8.680514104840416, 2.4716202692469555, 22.434252018739283, 2.403749238920903, 2.18952775359364, 3.644911171208253, 8.00827428786374, 3.1615956347639527, 19.471941093999686, 5.1661776800924395, 2.453665423710243, 4.672909125324288, 3.2482968547712816, 8.59937081661238, 8.06625350309438, 1.6502144736811577, 1.6570743936704337, 4.420501380442753, 1.8004689720808456, 1.7810447122062463, 4.0246071653999405, 2.4603934878785663 ], "crps_clim": [ 2.4548094454165224, 2.4172161936748946, 5.333194544027777, 1.8549628212328, 34.12225179677904, 1.8644358450759109, 2.122993377234286, 2.4401382645813325, 5.73783658336709, 2.3217318677782153, 15.529706680297545, 3.9621897190875477, 1.8639890286330005, 3.876280862498442, 2.06925731997254, 7.631461938517677, 6.263162085572975, 2.1837307589862482, 2.5462616594235836, 3.4498462746206284, 2.1833797898673692, 2.4890121894953605, 2.173582577005678, 2.0020724813943143 ], "rps": [ 0.30317245818456096, 0.2521224983718739, 0.88709468983027, 0.359872048429194, 0.462246018315566, 0.3000061756029902, 0.38042524947925993, 0.3542128510225619, 1.000226549188699, 0.5693064289666349, 1.206834760023516, 0.7668949325180029, 0.5162576563839889, 0.4799072140293353, 0.6773171738128044, 0.8297450206439603, 0.5609015977949615, 0.41472381995431296, 0.13416992444388884, 0.8209686508631949, 0.22046220009763717, 0.3259286233872595, 0.6148233629759392, 0.48803820009156296 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5271012391842729, 0.5237026472803199, 0.4726651024187634, 0.4183814425674277, 0.5463137996219282, 0.3948310596898503, 0.4065592098294793, 0.42831468140896223, 0.49352864345894915, 0.3706979572196848, 0.5445864342119232, 0.4920445653961977, 0.3565574386141641, 0.3975457684832652, 0.35150037945920126, 0.5287991707856597, 0.48528999945591406, 0.42598320924629246, 0.518005444784471, 0.4652291028680146, 0.5021412621347012, 0.4343952625071855, 0.40487741585469383, 0.3925124516437722 ], "bias": [ 4.854898618807513, 7.673355065196245, -8.748711058035624, -0.9154263096880103, -25.237935922954733, 0.8684338287287667, -1.4793942370819266, 1.910329847115687, -5.544733938491781, 1.3527849239299574, -22.00167018857559, -3.349353797679895, 4.971923359148076, 0.415389564085978, -3.2800767099699253, -5.79955703564177, -7.267374637131322, 2.036359223691451, 1.627923658352909, -1.8714003438091003, 2.6884741160384844, 2.7479467576891987, 10.536306698131348, 5.864133159847186 ], "mae": [ 5.790693639716363, 8.299242153154399, 8.84281919933992, 2.2731247713957403, 25.380837706601387, 2.931587026492034, 2.1372825937614044, 4.5847443725039385, 6.9323447636396365, 4.063509650304742, 22.00167018857559, 4.925274372543486, 6.366646304224228, 6.906417187029951, 3.5323657434639406, 6.127583367130465, 9.150796643268059, 2.7997195455526285, 2.8629182374884405, 3.6749158183681168, 3.4394330589457227, 4.046556642809573, 11.263954480005141, 6.808650790932427 ], "mse": [ 121.88010348278068, 237.34108257331295, 470.41760857403904, 17.138509711622362, 1549.0552622408065, 27.840316310117032, 10.919705347014329, 74.45493913708127, 206.35055863809285, 59.230829521446736, 1088.6785669884719, 99.22905598054835, 155.56963632465906, 210.6978033221925, 55.79577159531023, 133.99161306148923, 410.21961760906663, 18.99781892957586, 25.0257600611653, 38.719804553626595, 31.61235997400502, 50.827742144802386, 403.3259598918132, 122.1568956044387 ], "var": [ 322.8794568337789, 1218.5541431574347, 297.9546919754537, 224.94420054965488, 1686.053639480374, 271.2172663839659, 71.1740041635328, 585.9504578587221, 1027.6614600215566, 457.43643225308585, 203.93396592400606, 396.8886816135302, 678.9141216890594, 932.5969381258977, 67.92067161905048, 1322.7873015959437, 382.39895648991694, 271.976650549008, 341.0135386326676, 528.6969848628883, 301.38654343752586, 379.1452622632111, 1509.9413152406923, 1699.0854892088128 ], "zero": [ 0.4159596520780282, 0.4101027613675809, 0.5004626899637485, 0.5428335076317204, 0.35056637265228713, 0.40991240210286123, 0.5761204947799012, 0.39959318272848526, 0.49065770485275184, 0.421613797297561, 0.4994505216004009, 0.41737510375950226, 0.404674808457587, 0.3828762460279763, 0.5024579528722366, 0.40166122151801975, 0.3989763930170582, 0.43321157899518503, 0.6194210237194189, 0.4385351153958445, 0.561932232681292, 0.5427760337987907, 0.38756147912514116, 0.46634265011463827 ] }, "crps": 5.301629137266992, "crpss": -0.07019387015903655, "rps": 0.5385690876838324, "rpss": -0.18784932707029744, "mean_bias_mm": -1.5811406399290366, "mean_mae_mm": 6.8809620107186396, "mean_rmse_mm": 15.301793633396759, "spread_error_ratio": 1.6435966627472562, "zero_fraction": 0.45729478860575073, "correlation": 0.2102714266191519, "pit_histogram": [ 0.00057, 0.00695, 0.01352, 0.01947, 0.03396, 0.06491, 0.10139, 0.14573, 0.2505, 0.36299 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.9212355296447703 } }, "operational": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 1.7997093371372717, 2.666991317836798, 5.5162081952478035, 2.7417074253403277, 10.68007571118045, 3.5120581956058956, 6.1116987887924346, 1.9840057065140497 ], "crps_clim": [ 3.000358402837215, 3.2118104787747215, 4.432332626338175, 2.616293468105364, 7.502465706182092, 2.7696475536717284, 4.029967303787228, 2.9260298617309384 ], "rps": [ 0.18038482755953117, 0.3355532285700306, 0.6196477713321689, 0.3709019827343189, 0.8297450095883968, 0.5849821924102525, 0.48686904257336716, 0.2554795654931745 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5137613090872692, 0.49705239615939123, 0.40610073525670304, 0.44669601338418186, 0.4481977724282379, 0.39955792469123536, 0.39062127201913327, 0.49615040098932883 ], "bias": [ 1.7338439731505775, 7.926734877263955, -3.6335651208214994, 0.3554731161792261, -10.593263362615053, 0.36300305457417514, 9.777999947798035, 2.357173023106018 ], "mae": [ 2.6974353410101832, 8.30125268792342, 5.347755533229038, 3.3202706781869766, 11.062750002105664, 3.595840303436017, 12.287490753217194, 3.3333967733306538 ], "mse": [ 18.55567733566698, 161.743842983706, 125.06237069800287, 39.91173697065257, 406.1063448723181, 34.6078487696337, 366.41814210299617, 28.411966839786253 ], "var": [ 208.52845395488598, 1008.6263599939122, 460.37970394971813, 289.0185008326067, 462.2294767880009, 419.01115753445583, 1805.4616854530746, 271.04742040329444 ], "zero": [ 0.32729617290178886, 0.3007871685088613, 0.27037649388863577, 0.3135965334729448, 0.28689373050402767, 0.32723466912258137, 0.21146932329666787, 0.3192926159909722 ] }, "crps": 4.376556834706879, "crpss": -0.14836706062972582, "rps": 0.4579454525326551, "rpss": -0.01818323795411092, "mean_bias_mm": 1.0359249385794294, "mean_mae_mm": 6.243274009054893, "mean_rmse_mm": 12.149166280926249, "spread_error_ratio": 2.042118330658722, "zero_fraction": 0.29461833846081, "correlation": 0.1693478473373389, "pit_histogram": [ 0.00151, 0.00583, 0.02089, 0.04448, 0.07259, 0.11081, 0.14013, 0.17304, 0.20559, 0.22512 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.7094004158835228 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 1.3633405211093776, 2.051985085205109, 6.740785666037099, 1.8208325063740656, 11.331432736380654, 2.575047607825368, 5.489137072185093, 1.5953837582921975 ], "crps_clim": [ 2.366231987002849, 2.259909659422711, 5.567918347623332, 1.9966771549125995, 8.330258482082852, 1.9477425770778494, 3.4305474768916633, 2.1733161564516763 ], "rps": [ 0.11320932881000957, 0.32389093027390603, 0.8362752918842645, 0.3171421775760187, 0.8111688289770136, 0.7215627345751997, 0.3803365309662395, 0.39439733736029975 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5473323710222779, 0.45950888532469003, 0.47310561454117583, 0.451258434482434, 0.43752408372393053, 0.3769753182133201, 0.34410807043894076, 0.45220364528394885 ], "bias": [ 1.0650881130373766, 5.247685506205975, -5.636060546373203, 0.3969540983335812, -11.93291373976441, -0.12315662186040761, 13.321311926519355, 2.2802128603441534 ], "mae": [ 2.294261908442821, 5.986311265636011, 6.599015635977616, 2.1893903234841754, 12.35614679092536, 2.7442896418848974, 13.592473648001944, 3.0642791030934684 ], "mse": [ 13.357064118245265, 103.65804320621984, 195.097305292962, 14.504232626819427, 619.0057763499977, 16.99461402683436, 470.54379609497846, 25.65765424426562 ], "var": [ 142.00347555051226, 752.3361744550608, 508.95555410382286, 165.82887738217045, 402.0253568478888, 236.7124630616604, 2461.6487052608577, 227.3848905313444 ], "zero": [ 0.5137065629962175, 0.50133228417308, 0.4251533264840427, 0.5090714230201837, 0.4758154076823832, 0.5123010116229307, 0.3026341293822749, 0.4833560021194936 ] }, "crps": 4.12099311917612, "crpss": -0.1743815247189735, "rps": 0.487247895052869, "rpss": -0.10049833057737523, "mean_bias_mm": 0.5773901995553025, "mean_mae_mm": 6.103271039680786, "mean_rmse_mm": 13.503788755199052, "spread_error_ratio": 1.832144777611117, "zero_fraction": 0.4654212684350758, "correlation": 0.08737763428713147, "pit_histogram": [ 0.00026, 0.00475, 0.01285, 0.03135, 0.04528, 0.0721, 0.10059, 0.16255, 0.22862, 0.34163 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.8667928310942129 } }, "full": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 3.6499113078931287, 3.3333493152969766, 15.25100119791286, 7.2687705103045, 18.511275255261516, 4.966927735392371, 2.3722374921306346, 3.749582645196627, 8.703348854504021, 4.534292880925362, 16.912239855154095, 5.595332529980902, 3.598583194795473, 6.111234099265637, 5.8396842495422225, 10.031786134761738, 6.213722453788145, 2.656007659585838, 2.048929429840756, 4.202838861495046, 2.3382843549339665, 2.088398007127979, 4.242015626341714, 2.91045582281789, 1.765747109100967, 2.6267135433562205, 5.6064417125665305, 2.7127770576962558, 10.960654092319693, 3.5071522731531437, 5.960805068004968, 1.9409727175200444 ], "crps_clim": [ 2.6897179853589925, 2.867287610747155, 11.613583597576943, 5.886197674812449, 27.77500554826608, 3.3326847383568015, 2.8099124904438204, 2.624493357547262, 7.71221722782229, 3.8123457628295836, 14.271810450341063, 4.481516504313957, 2.329174473258749, 4.367684268620377, 4.603049696222213, 8.657359289497048, 4.649450179185341, 2.4755201422145108, 2.7360868719092664, 3.4495472657845374, 2.254603487223936, 2.505246979400119, 3.1059697413108407, 2.855418618210857, 2.766727211701212, 2.9690284184817233, 4.63923895270541, 2.3781737857801595, 8.084302871907116, 2.606734429626978, 4.181426375823429, 2.68056081509455 ], "rps": [ 0.4413742258254227, 0.36791814139788415, 0.9353137611434036, 0.5561415668691454, 0.3961011837476286, 0.6223629710798712, 0.272127150431465, 0.3839676543889885, 0.7828883374126815, 0.5391512050413222, 0.8831185842095535, 0.5905345910709792, 0.5029932011077854, 0.6400984187763926, 0.6853318670920597, 0.7031035773495783, 0.5854972944321845, 0.4851972779178561, 0.22151237417321032, 0.5706408539397482, 0.3376377513337032, 0.34440638237950466, 0.45910877103367914, 0.4336600886606538, 0.20061803288600236, 0.3376429585607601, 0.6395442438906281, 0.3871157321606806, 0.8461569750735182, 0.6335773618748206, 0.4729445833702526, 0.26366458522387054 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.49041507783712296, 0.5369376306368444, 0.5100667474154729, 0.4521868075526217, 0.5217072761921506, 0.4133935720112422, 0.47234840051899624, 0.43488625630302596, 0.5255484732176574, 0.43690918492602165, 0.5252437168376151, 0.45828462824902266, 0.38486514853319226, 0.4081996460632345, 0.40282801997469403, 0.5125391329245191, 0.44742012622339855, 0.39216921729503385, 0.5031366769351334, 0.41349098916290067, 0.4059993484819169, 0.41024969837800246, 0.3849070120945385, 0.44180910334017454, 0.4984255550790732, 0.4983306583397526, 0.40315870128184617, 0.42477518647713974, 0.4628459104807814, 0.3911057460601312, 0.4012825990880415, 0.4936916796322727 ], "bias": [ 8.833725254100356, 9.32861203945007, -16.573293197761362, -7.451776552633944, -17.19779813928957, -3.5280024655121065, -0.7628062690549258, 7.226780442798156, -7.519874834799794, -0.4594243896585035, -18.451912269805625, -0.9834471815805095, 8.6159972490023, -2.770838363360084, -5.70989092123056, -8.454692415121277, -0.9388641853442046, 1.9648771742912963, 1.5125891374160942, -0.7395970916828369, 1.9734062269446713, 2.8475008052973343, 7.006865753273971, 7.8181033122371355, 1.5088966710155998, 7.689649626320136, -4.215739380138583, 0.08069163020322952, -11.209861979401154, 0.07573094729088437, 9.368291339032398, 2.0765759695449972 ], "mae": [ 9.276732629985121, 9.647955596978488, 16.67941038098435, 8.48496922736439, 21.73669852651484, 5.5622018349774445, 2.355774645441731, 8.414366498912985, 8.324580931349448, 5.469374758642951, 19.15528083483016, 6.104714943597966, 9.460624353507162, 6.430423736673425, 6.636097163058244, 9.576411160674557, 8.345045347916626, 3.5530080008212486, 3.030378910637056, 4.439473390748168, 3.0397059762757235, 3.810421690157218, 8.619937481317832, 8.314641139311789, 2.4999941108261665, 8.062511575192639, 5.501552318645488, 3.0721810625335686, 11.481680227284457, 3.4649102085459034, 11.815939971458263, 3.0264791202528 ], "mse": [ 212.53581701813425, 261.9812386775188, 993.9955680620175, 252.04555363692893, 1201.955380866735, 81.40255322079516, 24.971389177402422, 177.31972722858598, 199.157436394875, 92.28804668714335, 936.5052324495805, 119.1403811067623, 235.76108598394242, 166.3892212961273, 156.15065961246881, 280.3625336632194, 235.2545521478444, 27.80225338988246, 27.92812553591687, 54.411339767622664, 22.522907654635997, 41.91685304700316, 242.02724032898263, 156.0717651170215, 15.775942344694437, 153.65305653845252, 136.69294555052227, 36.15872097666638, 436.36081544809593, 32.35951522669364, 342.48824782483166, 24.024752779238934 ], "var": [ 581.4510593846267, 971.167847174588, 402.87177734939195, 221.9305850899213, 1477.2756421783201, 233.3727305697722, 114.05327584152354, 839.717218610744, 746.010845580142, 439.5822561096836, 411.1485235746154, 597.3837015479234, 994.8982121809788, 781.5664294209039, 223.59271920405203, 886.6244910393513, 673.4674791402789, 308.65342303459704, 361.75627730537536, 456.094458968453, 311.5717219368064, 285.8674326616307, 918.8947560606072, 1136.3079577014457, 192.1886597356048, 949.2422600078025, 410.46625211398083, 264.15231029737, 395.5540586243017, 391.35367101701223, 1749.3453394944122, 246.3239806822605 ], "zero": [ 0.2517968283845732, 0.2593224464903155, 0.29610022371307015, 0.3131026326311307, 0.21094833803914154, 0.25588054253865056, 0.333582837712625, 0.24318330644060518, 0.27635730459482216, 0.2498103142244389, 0.29093093368628403, 0.2511240034232757, 0.23400090470948443, 0.2544155072661246, 0.2970467282584293, 0.25128555058278834, 0.24588702517298897, 0.2651653143215935, 0.3805934258437248, 0.27936453980813075, 0.34392507400139977, 0.33257367260929355, 0.255471882427494, 0.28386330053932674, 0.3260447654179876, 0.2992457695430584, 0.2698840301109144, 0.3126488054021333, 0.28680763354615363, 0.32670029089215324, 0.20878801864739485, 0.3177885753036047 ] }, "crps": 5.6941085327489755, "crpss": -0.10988102590131743, "rps": 0.5162953657454761, "rpss": -0.14262889904419374, "mean_bias_mm": -0.9074851893173879, "mean_mae_mm": 7.668546179856819, "mean_rmse_mm": 15.183678386223171, "spread_error_ratio": 1.6037112420547424, "zero_fraction": 0.28136376644634725, "correlation": 0.10194238915420323, "pit_histogram": [ 0.00217, 0.00891, 0.0258, 0.04857, 0.07497, 0.10412, 0.13183, 0.16328, 0.20478, 0.23557 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.6791725748322195 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 2.214142845585189, 2.360779977775745, 8.762233334300209, 2.4950398141506236, 22.964899351495358, 2.371046018525786, 2.2172662643381567, 3.6092437809461106, 8.099904009806192, 3.107600013749778, 19.655963861351317, 5.267845129289866, 2.3637095550795864, 4.620408678786539, 3.299221560657752, 8.75255922568947, 8.135167084931911, 1.630701591701225, 1.6497491274521934, 4.55979813574904, 1.7649654388142924, 1.7669266927873066, 3.83823199629659, 2.427914399266901, 1.3526271982594478, 2.033486643663587, 6.900145128497878, 1.8180656197641798, 11.702877843859465, 2.6018072624883217, 5.423844028089808, 1.5718777484020485 ], "crps_clim": [ 2.1962156929740804, 2.1788012116298163, 5.48867715919352, 1.7773343754893767, 34.32641868083757, 1.8627034830071907, 1.9715211508068933, 2.4850922338242754, 5.825734906672177, 2.4213405279615716, 15.788972303238339, 4.131178922483057, 1.7605249281308137, 3.8097412938741515, 2.031828268076108, 7.918858186445213, 6.382316217886629, 2.0199351210734884, 2.268887809680827, 3.672694877557107, 1.9649460420847091, 2.2337494697367615, 2.0965498141099683, 1.8861829698011934, 2.2991833116108906, 2.179019211557004, 5.967272104997054, 1.9197227040545963, 8.917885769487894, 1.949950438310964, 3.6326875965041756, 2.091802235366322 ], "rps": [ 0.30857830204794534, 0.24882678835112965, 0.9218833796676922, 0.3936678353193882, 0.46232530208862305, 0.3072812932410354, 0.4012008722897893, 0.3780929330834587, 1.0039757391946385, 0.6046904854268798, 1.2086294726391091, 0.7820661125489606, 0.5662672809583075, 0.4631871745153047, 0.7048658028296381, 0.8547443196413229, 0.5762631347124255, 0.42281340214265206, 0.1179477822926531, 0.8057456558974851, 0.2071013578983391, 0.32249398494660086, 0.6325912155371299, 0.4923501802057636, 0.10837466971878565, 0.3112624900505357, 0.8496603258998707, 0.3130467287701767, 0.8352170848481064, 0.8014682106241949, 0.36539735097502557, 0.40187726901322696 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5381511480265782, 0.5320773657724542, 0.49130303512889106, 0.38498928938989757, 0.5629552549427681, 0.38290325595556074, 0.3789331388282408, 0.4247100795822977, 0.5050165255638045, 0.3889502709540875, 0.5619307137731465, 0.5113363017784888, 0.34719627842747985, 0.37617173880982513, 0.3204093918893131, 0.5500282293506343, 0.49836540383658773, 0.43075767900875145, 0.5392014406556627, 0.46954411522421585, 0.5074149366392898, 0.43384618252591467, 0.40967831680734257, 0.35129371669777265, 0.556013264324054, 0.4676500824441632, 0.4913710435949474, 0.4477522470171603, 0.4328472498436856, 0.3755117997097963, 0.35728991623881007, 0.43983412768140073 ], "bias": [ 4.426392580039332, 7.0033645600386745, -8.985634433223058, -1.155049565450732, -25.925817890484677, 0.4585088177731311, -1.6174428662665037, 1.3322614061671965, -6.138842244031505, 0.8026193403117763, -22.15214930008873, -3.869658785791713, 4.401035861840505, -0.15874513283835484, -3.4489773699193047, -6.440162795824221, -7.717309934243835, 1.6296929563075544, 1.3566563960324387, -2.3934797038407893, 2.2883379420098087, 2.394314088737992, 9.401708674759272, 5.05295394349617, 0.8785346724962901, 4.954631880508928, -6.29281376281866, 0.17475338219694983, -12.532291388345811, -0.3613610136980509, 13.131321993965756, 2.020255482219782 ], "mae": [ 5.406524150702744, 7.646351169761411, 9.040322516005123, 2.271530256263186, 26.04090585623718, 2.731213142444438, 2.2237889546360328, 4.205278768822477, 7.032988605515351, 3.840440693908336, 22.15214930008873, 5.019464816967876, 5.903638487486926, 6.390551517375886, 3.6708394118162517, 6.731056711094948, 9.106634611462667, 2.508065975372208, 2.6793527397711716, 3.9794789226204377, 3.094145729479753, 3.7926843810391486, 10.184611995880976, 6.05391606064009, 2.2034439945176514, 5.714710103757404, 6.934836498621851, 2.0823212581502712, 12.806389208821702, 2.775753095559737, 13.3582066561121, 2.852102893682521 ], "mse": [ 109.63284059258784, 211.74072191026244, 476.4178687793076, 17.73980066870853, 1629.6425709690736, 25.20814779027531, 11.797952946914075, 63.7141521399692, 211.24130481957363, 49.96471933434123, 1101.607093338366, 104.77182633641124, 137.9150261071087, 200.45865388295326, 57.64498257109389, 154.5941899121324, 412.5809429119064, 14.880985480013782, 22.272745682064297, 44.79730640846635, 26.78833913774299, 45.6786193049439, 350.8239717074911, 101.66236077309549, 12.092917480774227, 98.44503852905027, 214.84595979669163, 13.076861154450228, 660.279351523839, 17.228203458060364, 461.28118768954084, 23.1653590247205 ], "var": [ 294.4143873932719, 1073.6024029397788, 276.371223573443, 200.9755481133506, 1592.0526045964655, 245.68941540727587, 64.98697859102327, 527.1189385268895, 892.3202495571919, 414.13060819845657, 195.01119866532534, 354.7376934724695, 612.021232243224, 854.8813766684422, 63.87032348759206, 1208.085195835926, 342.8484372131502, 231.3850729502107, 307.3638428844175, 465.01649767901404, 263.8087840514901, 339.995811062722, 1299.3367631200629, 1467.272963538766, 129.86970845874725, 696.0633933284472, 442.693698023839, 148.7659062045099, 332.06839022255525, 218.6503302310333, 2442.5961844675085, 208.9147407017705 ], "zero": [ 0.4152666477922949, 0.41010414556930125, 0.5013712341880502, 0.5429728199522906, 0.3465215126024253, 0.4106812072611336, 0.5766793981831337, 0.4000121281640047, 0.4908678660256242, 0.42070980899184646, 0.5000109792505453, 0.4173771565947445, 0.4041182950436381, 0.38239397301363737, 0.5032947791433214, 0.4006208655465991, 0.3982133861299705, 0.4330733627680629, 0.6199121386767567, 0.4383268753689015, 0.5615859713751529, 0.5435455474478135, 0.3886782277160665, 0.4660662952328839, 0.5137768885285642, 0.5009922289662182, 0.427270225906197, 0.5086314796032652, 0.47653472310108014, 0.5131565200048771, 0.29734635752124167, 0.4827757866224799 ] }, "crps": 5.041876542548496, "crpss": -0.09414440623420894, "rps": 0.536684185543006, "rpss": -0.18723672466397168, "mean_bias_mm": -1.4838247564988873, "mean_mae_mm": 6.576053077644268, "mean_rmse_mm": 14.878667617349356, "spread_error_ratio": 1.6031686428739422, "zero_fraction": 0.45915277600912885, "correlation": 0.17491433689603483, "pit_histogram": [ 0.00044, 0.00594, 0.01136, 0.02108, 0.0338, 0.06049, 0.09505, 0.15172, 0.25872, 0.3614 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.9436916021443181 } }, "distribution_full": { "ethiopia": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 0.8992856286016472, "area_mean_abs_log": 1.4027730881158254 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 1.7027716438488527, "area_mean_abs_log": 1.7662357530367783 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean_abs_log": 7.827569360149327 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 0.529939436909474, "area_mean_abs_log": 3.662019678739829 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0848189115840978, "area_mean_abs_log": 1.9891557904837638 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.11183823529411757, "area_mean": 0.2718631150130744 } }, "ondj_domain": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 0.6198551084267552, "area_mean_abs_log": 2.258270550065234 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 1.5857598387068883, "area_mean_abs_log": 2.356454385133401 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean_abs_log": 11.884656781962942 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 0.25209496970463857, "area_mean_abs_log": 6.343540087921883 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 0.8874303009480304, "area_mean_abs_log": 3.034644490791692 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.39551470588235244, "area_mean": 0.4591527760091285 } } } }, "eqm": { "training": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 4.67582522730709, 4.589305293364675, 13.210722575804938, 5.770217122791293, 19.81467503869716, 3.793069479831751, 1.4619890516026053, 3.805600144896309, 7.047177488599767, 3.7399645332842066, 14.752013241028639, 4.156437191096593, 4.086483821050715, 4.733843698083166, 4.601880721934411, 8.221515027985385, 5.23877213547275, 2.357687926010279, 1.3941381259195957, 3.212332536173389, 1.8796272912681606, 2.225347100655002, 4.339063656696835, 3.2560598998535166 ], "crps_clim": [ 3.147316707451114, 3.345505329459557, 10.984966213801052, 5.565431468435425, 27.0718763908127, 3.331872595873229, 3.2339333066026654, 2.898578484108726, 7.306127788484703, 3.578837768945852, 13.61369806885984, 4.185041134572365, 2.552105347257009, 4.271290701634523, 4.644138020744405, 8.101898044577364, 4.707631815249459, 2.7497107572454813, 3.224323436142348, 3.3810268425956997, 2.5984657102999638, 2.914534006884459, 3.0779701844454106, 3.298398263301115 ], "rps": [ 0.6607815142419845, 0.6242010422164456, 0.6732392955282214, 0.4292721124500433, 0.23226547137252587, 0.5042341170664756, 0.29105284828230427, 0.535143911068417, 0.4979967868815311, 0.4157908756946914, 0.5957681740191227, 0.41070632161824094, 0.5102101098378721, 0.47790728383819225, 0.46635455770737877, 0.4992175773129962, 0.501967918167229, 0.40520165260944374, 0.25485077907395964, 0.38516822818864443, 0.3418372367161293, 0.36623632972491466, 0.3686234371714475, 0.492285512109011 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.49730130537920497, 0.5299108646278966, 0.4968209717644765, 0.45140321931037847, 0.5120439289026995, 0.41031169775019555, 0.4779713217459693, 0.4530884207483443, 0.5043277856041234, 0.41692670592375, 0.5103230613419248, 0.4397744822519408, 0.3965890908147674, 0.3999865051869261, 0.4105095348843729, 0.49534705826094655, 0.4525412470698913, 0.40263417109494526, 0.4947135592926832, 0.4107579460380184, 0.4281083679843292, 0.43735476661089284, 0.37946484897479493, 0.465353650018479 ], "bias": [ 10.09786398987441, 10.247647532320185, -14.565027511420759, -5.034114237830891, -22.32202320326009, -0.24382753232161752, 2.3377003660597446, 7.651867661762397, -6.712611023533296, 1.5533364105033554, -16.81169466994835, 0.39367372858447586, 8.562880923563172, -1.3601898980244516, -2.963968509267002, -7.6563230232183965, 0.2535751215530573, 4.323290673653187, 4.309445152348382, 1.3191018141340871, 4.6360973204102915, 5.7972248815994964, 7.763950766341013, 8.124535493314804 ], "mae": [ 10.104675532830438, 10.25045151986419, 15.174416411678452, 7.414792818587466, 24.109062068767496, 5.099919347453486, 3.3321909236117384, 8.250479724161966, 7.8580914316071935, 5.297181620424899, 17.30631238277032, 5.261881471660997, 8.684781861325153, 6.772663281046265, 5.957932470800761, 8.812936571759902, 7.815864279575653, 5.245671987199507, 4.5613589154793175, 4.387610740771594, 4.823618102588435, 5.8296264682458, 8.645481988852412, 8.344996125288189 ], "mse": [ 247.4952270767534, 270.6525152842236, 910.8599621935688, 201.4071129012045, 1486.0960162329047, 67.10728939232001, 33.1921621536791, 158.793148254984, 181.92712606422705, 84.83215856147314, 802.5645450934296, 89.75047499727114, 199.66418937049102, 169.21202070707818, 139.99246977500968, 249.38987001649522, 198.66918824315613, 64.09571079853585, 54.28277308149895, 53.392053537640535, 56.75744841720674, 90.90898625782755, 229.7008578637877, 157.08253153616016 ], "var": [ 272.51987092212727, 303.8536940826658, 195.1193998282121, 138.06462327814143, 250.01173071413814, 167.35695849207514, 80.19599601395088, 349.0164248802036, 299.387179686718, 250.80694647765372, 208.81809839150216, 311.38931625497776, 313.2935622431306, 318.4116763161936, 122.84804637151244, 379.5755714437556, 290.1143351381113, 179.1688811299067, 189.46387806089766, 237.96448611831528, 184.16624930945486, 193.78097327284382, 350.52811786053013, 298.8437360989859 ], "zero": [ 0.00375122010612902, 0.003401676738958476, 0.0033493396442080704, 0.002921177468887174, 0.0027054955830245484, 0.002733245074722311, 0.0030021747046836203, 0.004073049376104764, 0.0037498190873374577, 0.0037763761915775877, 0.0034291328971276036, 0.0030546531444438953, 0.002650604630235663, 0.004235529932217768, 0.004235037674534461, 0.003162483551520924, 0.003777959048253439, 0.003858094236034417, 0.004557286496511138, 0.004638045575445323, 0.004797178704905563, 0.004801599391530076, 0.004986518343307565, 0.0032160880563130156 ] }, "crps": 5.515156180392009, "crpss": 0.010621022343512254, "rps": 0.4558463788707176, "rpss": -0.006138610870811911, "mean_bias_mm": -0.012399490533449834, "mean_mae_mm": 8.305916585264653, "mean_rmse_mm": 16.06993289476101, "spread_error_ratio": 0.9744116563771236, "zero_fraction": 0.003702657735750578, "correlation": -0.01055162975960229, "pit_histogram": [ 0.16219, 0.06664, 0.07755, 0.0829, 0.09911, 0.09557, 0.10113, 0.10024, 0.1034, 0.11128 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.15646808065715298 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 3.4210416707423805, 3.3110863678205575, 6.672085747112106, 1.1871639401899619, 25.458967090238662, 2.117241364083384, 0.8788761122161547, 2.878309115388165, 6.020569358203796, 2.6989685681719036, 17.23035497500936, 3.617609129922163, 2.781379035566674, 4.080279490239541, 1.892464834759335, 6.967569934134547, 6.470364475197613, 1.6157419840891745, 0.8321862645529519, 3.1366600686719592, 1.406577403516609, 1.480699863366338, 4.420361751809424, 1.7516346139718113 ], "crps_clim": [ 2.4548094454165224, 2.4172161936748946, 5.333194544027777, 1.8549628212328, 34.12225179677904, 1.8644358450759109, 2.122993377234286, 2.4401382645813325, 5.73783658336709, 2.3217318677782153, 15.529706680297545, 3.9621897190875477, 1.8639890286330005, 3.876280862498442, 2.06925731997254, 7.631461938517677, 6.263162085572975, 2.1837307589862482, 2.5462616594235836, 3.4498462746206284, 2.1833797898673692, 2.4890121894953605, 2.173582577005678, 2.0020724813943143 ], "rps": [ 0.663230985385272, 0.6128457592198249, 0.5951626533351985, 0.3178740967309075, 0.1423054214268354, 0.4277364296027658, 0.30018957195086937, 0.4790659565714766, 0.5920608961444452, 0.3493369035372687, 0.6866111012710945, 0.40072424067769674, 0.4205004772747572, 0.45261319755294394, 0.41670965694108897, 0.48161072344874506, 0.45427323548340015, 0.4233730504323597, 0.18898895169193305, 0.44602277684951996, 0.34167732945045065, 0.301403471534735, 0.4545676218984718, 0.3924938436905693 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5271012391842729, 0.5237026472803199, 0.4726651024187634, 0.4183814425674277, 0.5463137996219282, 0.3948310596898503, 0.4065592098294793, 0.42831468140896223, 0.49352864345894915, 0.3706979572196848, 0.5445864342119232, 0.4920445653961977, 0.3565574386141641, 0.3975457684832652, 0.35150037945920126, 0.5287991707856597, 0.48528999945591406, 0.42598320924629246, 0.518005444784471, 0.4652291028680146, 0.5021412621347012, 0.4343952625071855, 0.40487741585469383, 0.3925124516437722 ], "bias": [ 7.612921215462283, 8.313328065382887, -6.366770786288691, 1.7072119675642905, -29.864013734233684, 3.8047350552264465, 1.3763902656664009, 3.291223627230349, -5.27253194264897, 3.6676120160408887, -19.622572804011337, -1.1545892389972872, 6.749635275423333, 1.642717594512306, -0.2065128611544796, -5.758645353329278, -5.031700384328885, 4.376443984111377, 3.9758011160711217, -0.10251148090585971, 5.0985929088353545, 5.195539208389565, 9.98586659835386, 5.233398326445208 ], "mae": [ 7.613458653445993, 8.31352821008472, 7.277889842612961, 2.4977847087304696, 29.897428439050934, 4.134603526813274, 1.7041717800734337, 4.756231318015399, 6.399969707424553, 4.2831126856513695, 19.633128800853957, 3.8402359729114317, 6.759376371330236, 7.668239116932529, 2.3655097065176, 6.301306387292821, 8.367205236384294, 4.519732897241013, 3.980542752460905, 3.194790017951399, 5.0985929088353545, 5.202955599658894, 10.071234859189756, 5.782228097834306 ], "mse": [ 186.06413366624562, 225.28003102591205, 416.01616919119726, 20.195204062224118, 2134.121460037516, 51.69157504081659, 11.075865222038797, 71.12200683516377, 187.91756518898674, 73.71839229130765, 910.9124148349991, 68.41295625891294, 170.4416497046771, 223.7756906600388, 37.17696780165053, 147.8866239110508, 333.5122735953844, 54.296683977995514, 45.95131229206315, 33.61159895810895, 68.51368108623993, 85.56359139917066, 315.3036096680036, 85.1883119961492 ], "var": [ 198.21966560638384, 331.4185781696807, 196.08089029478606, 143.2319164924599, 196.59754586708743, 203.15285390127804, 69.07436905761729, 329.8184290841154, 302.28497883065796, 274.8406588490677, 157.53370921893463, 271.9697205436843, 305.0352887067045, 379.5810239442058, 75.79963207224972, 518.2635560971034, 249.86797346580516, 158.84014727930807, 197.1549680360428, 256.5886054023956, 210.71082722797195, 242.82829899305534, 441.9822896711939, 326.5455487131421 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 4.680341381623941, "crpss": 0.05522009797771166, "rps": 0.43089076467094295, "rpss": 0.049642252851211155, "mean_bias_mm": -0.05618464004928344, "mean_mae_mm": 7.069302399887401, "mean_rmse_mm": 15.755620384360535, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0066641868136341, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.06590837701785089, "pit_histogram": [ 0.1932, 0.04093, 0.05777, 0.06513, 0.10336, 0.11325, 0.11426, 0.11008, 0.09977, 0.10226 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.27281068362022054 } }, "operational": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 1.532387067437265, 2.8668245601189413, 3.938853921350794, 1.808884316587993, 8.53792989269238, 2.2604649972304034, 5.170947690214828, 1.647808384642115 ], "crps_clim": [ 3.000358402837215, 3.2118104787747215, 4.432332626338175, 2.616293468105364, 7.502465706182092, 2.7696475536717284, 4.029967303787228, 2.9260298617309384 ], "rps": [ 0.3189683838335817, 0.4517212121034722, 0.3873422779147143, 0.36275624258240785, 0.5544780589029321, 0.4035997519511669, 0.4588724006210045, 0.3372153320450601 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5137613090872692, 0.49705239615939123, 0.40610073525670304, 0.44669601338418186, 0.4481977724282379, 0.39955792469123536, 0.39062127201913327, 0.49615040098932883 ], "bias": [ 4.50383643733867, 8.04196882261145, -1.6845585151527074, 2.865377557908203, -8.77653850002456, 2.3941428237966145, 6.324271247064409, 5.025325663325811 ], "mae": [ 4.507576719599667, 8.05272559532009, 5.06424656011192, 4.205143428397814, 10.129310425977918, 4.076935661998625, 9.187268398208202, 5.106250976063304 ], "mse": [ 50.51480668305609, 155.25079913632146, 114.55278005456697, 48.00758205872908, 350.0750287776364, 44.341698984161184, 188.94677349319102, 60.75361289528195 ], "var": [ 119.46871028763489, 288.3156068825583, 224.51209841840014, 150.06670060480738, 210.3801906872341, 197.15921193725262, 434.4680843430388, 155.83744814712327 ], "zero": [ 0.004623658620540181, 0.004387389741580048, 0.0046367693922092935, 0.004572195051731234, 0.0041902195905442405, 0.004202969441405098, 0.0042412550967641915, 0.004545308597655333 ] }, "crps": 3.47051260378434, "crpss": 0.0893703639168748, "rps": 0.40936920749429245, "rpss": 0.08981984011398181, "mean_bias_mm": 2.336728192108486, "mean_mae_mm": 6.291182220709692, "mean_rmse_mm": 11.249683784905601, "spread_error_ratio": 1.3260199919291795, "zero_fraction": 0.004424970691553702, "correlation": 0.20047870966972064, "pit_histogram": [ 0.15664, 0.07903, 0.09835, 0.10629, 0.09431, 0.08929, 0.09689, 0.09556, 0.09531, 0.08832 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.1258640419290118 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 1.1409933174161497, 1.8304032145356621, 4.896802687118429, 1.12808742384729, 9.183592842484675, 1.4723671234965017, 4.825007437237808, 1.51383369119735 ], "crps_clim": [ 2.366231987002849, 2.259909659422711, 5.567918347623332, 1.9966771549125995, 8.330258482082852, 1.9477425770778494, 3.4305474768916633, 2.1733161564516763 ], "rps": [ 0.3303268854335261, 0.39389064589215694, 0.4368908713689044, 0.34886398252599854, 0.5113357549733226, 0.4218472772374204, 0.4328907893180887, 0.4285971493568288 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5473323710222779, 0.45950888532469003, 0.47310561454117583, 0.451258434482434, 0.43752408372393053, 0.3769753182133201, 0.34410807043894076, 0.45220364528394885 ], "bias": [ 3.7875547997288304, 6.437711965533068, -3.588161566701051, 3.170828564798542, -9.791510269784085, 2.470587092340315, 8.882021337810674, 4.935646338390029 ], "mae": [ 3.7949900307204634, 6.4383152360336435, 6.051031619291663, 3.4511474951567025, 11.275643594763851, 3.005622465159924, 9.571442945881813, 4.955734444444101 ], "mse": [ 40.87230076671285, 120.18471954659707, 184.7652130753671, 33.71013806658162, 530.8830423592541, 30.591986278207244, 225.984469323496, 64.70854422181392 ], "var": [ 106.3536066802244, 293.1594891505623, 284.68532411994204, 134.9939033057136, 207.67395185027195, 173.39025019977902, 542.9745880531871, 163.24825499818823 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 3.2488859671667334, "crpss": 0.07414753060249302, "rps": 0.4130804195132808, "rpss": 0.06701636541858957, "mean_bias_mm": 2.03808478276454, "mean_mae_mm": 6.067990978931521, "mean_rmse_mm": 12.408164719439927, "spread_error_ratio": 1.2441235509431297, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.13207187587997343, "pit_histogram": [ 0.21645, 0.05842, 0.1012, 0.0814, 0.07592, 0.09306, 0.10194, 0.09085, 0.10306, 0.07768 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.24531351044913652 } }, "full": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 4.195545643982841, 4.122164934123478, 13.47843746658375, 6.020507944109663, 20.316423436078015, 3.7994737596113843, 1.3588635498563932, 3.456989367386313, 7.1176102016293346, 3.8386089588738077, 15.140347672327035, 4.280029366081583, 3.779484277104623, 4.641464920989285, 4.492128563257233, 8.504196109054131, 4.925459258662476, 2.11918998756065, 1.1884768507801973, 3.152535006331119, 1.6798753852404658, 1.9447925391131693, 4.135635062441306, 2.973888210082265, 1.4328505971345893, 2.7530604065154067, 4.011004096680337, 1.6610444444539711, 9.011033150127746, 2.179991613883225, 4.882955917751116, 1.5266872616482488 ], "crps_clim": [ 2.6897179853589925, 2.867287610747155, 11.613583597576943, 5.886197674812449, 27.77500554826608, 3.3326847383568015, 2.8099124904438204, 2.624493357547262, 7.71221722782229, 3.8123457628295836, 14.271810450341063, 4.481516504313957, 2.329174473258749, 4.367684268620377, 4.603049696222213, 8.657359289497048, 4.649450179185341, 2.4755201422145108, 2.7360868719092664, 3.4495472657845374, 2.254603487223936, 2.505246979400119, 3.1059697413108407, 2.855418618210857, 2.766727211701212, 2.9690284184817233, 4.63923895270541, 2.3781737857801595, 8.084302871907116, 2.606734429626978, 4.181426375823429, 2.68056081509455 ], "rps": [ 0.6542686151124112, 0.6438623003361535, 0.6577619375615642, 0.422996509472168, 0.22743103566600048, 0.5020402196942599, 0.30136024673278533, 0.5205873738599959, 0.47509184930310455, 0.42910523512442084, 0.5845532911254401, 0.4156143537781914, 0.48485516099348697, 0.47838511022791197, 0.45787435775956653, 0.5033495786930087, 0.4761710038071873, 0.40033718562654613, 0.26617306737319796, 0.38554226513817086, 0.3370956606326419, 0.3521282519251745, 0.354525483143346, 0.4950216867701901, 0.32659583397350733, 0.4738764022701101, 0.3850064059519284, 0.360238175175673, 0.5557765653618113, 0.42223881491427084, 0.44936709086818283, 0.3451541230623929 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.49041507783712296, 0.5369376306368444, 0.5100667474154729, 0.4521868075526217, 0.5217072761921506, 0.4133935720112422, 0.47234840051899624, 0.43488625630302596, 0.5255484732176574, 0.43690918492602165, 0.5252437168376151, 0.45828462824902266, 0.38486514853319226, 0.4081996460632345, 0.40282801997469403, 0.5125391329245191, 0.44742012622339855, 0.39216921729503385, 0.5031366769351334, 0.41349098916290067, 0.4059993484819169, 0.41024969837800246, 0.3849070120945385, 0.44180910334017454, 0.4984255550790732, 0.4983306583397526, 0.40315870128184617, 0.42477518647713974, 0.4628459104807814, 0.3911057460601312, 0.4012825990880415, 0.4936916796322727 ], "bias": [ 9.291995526063493, 9.48454022639749, -14.901102491658971, -5.474232300965134, -22.825242449523373, -0.766837298523911, 2.0137414588477554, 6.8010445706114995, -7.325089574470228, 0.7670508446587859, -17.16058181718652, -0.3374646006207219, 7.725234942795627, -1.9150682739994, -3.3812217355680745, -8.230308243274955, -0.4973669170213716, 3.7221546566558787, 3.8795484166928107, 0.5471937165508649, 4.082906634053906, 5.171859616605614, 6.854426923255137, 7.560216828627172, 4.227089733659819, 7.729983110624763, -2.464202700893967, 2.474224483358963, -9.485117861741339, 1.9716573451777861, 5.7294870401419455, 4.7013403008275665 ], "mae": [ 9.298951560284392, 9.486315360855977, 15.427450952886009, 7.609226911622892, 24.591320952502556, 4.871599399045919, 3.036186250297689, 7.450858339387523, 8.103551024733639, 5.219979461044781, 17.74119501513274, 5.355999289767956, 7.915257076750409, 6.428734636403493, 5.774458030237462, 9.310713293534297, 7.218879525600312, 4.59657753036202, 4.10666551439538, 4.224604870704641, 4.261994525774447, 5.238428986696445, 7.968916502265471, 7.796908960048147, 4.230381679659526, 7.739256402554409, 5.050406222066088, 3.8169932110592666, 10.46499313936362, 3.7580299941988953, 8.660755384476067, 4.771022478705657 ], "mse": [ 213.48955906735932, 235.08995869054394, 924.5660946316459, 211.5330664031981, 1530.5271379053568, 64.08623758391549, 28.991304065271354, 131.26612341549296, 191.6301432134059, 84.45437236207123, 833.573859419366, 94.12276677226961, 173.73564880792063, 163.3550122165302, 137.59002324664732, 272.6003007762709, 183.9987811148324, 50.8172267956782, 44.946181270833875, 50.49746966308975, 46.52275969036303, 75.88131695606292, 207.9235640437811, 138.9816252853966, 46.18440573084605, 146.42665982023587, 122.78201665304113, 41.35264049677977, 380.91976037343557, 39.422121168210786, 169.25833275770796, 54.37995492513561 ], "var": [ 247.17699709956017, 278.6384691821753, 180.93824896267438, 122.25744958411578, 243.72389471163032, 144.82565497070777, 72.70465615394129, 314.64185513670174, 270.4887584390246, 217.07097451172285, 189.26847381315486, 275.3195293840258, 277.2342035931956, 288.70685206464293, 109.01950246254306, 342.3189124844542, 255.37954258922375, 161.32923822124877, 169.97614746080225, 208.8362022958983, 163.4801135518696, 168.93732597738563, 322.5338920255116, 282.47319748745406, 110.20222467897368, 266.220464734422, 201.7966489477501, 136.07852089658974, 187.83481190178082, 179.30523515935454, 420.2918484155909, 141.51487082056562 ], "zero": [ 0.003670493334091053, 0.003240283697682219, 0.0027085240919190057, 0.0017699697021253133, 0.0021984748571965617, 0.002091510468029881, 0.002575630819692867, 0.003938504756041487, 0.0035884260460612005, 0.002680803714379394, 0.0032945882770643257, 0.0024138375921548307, 0.0017147616706031444, 0.004127934571366931, 0.0036183199214954768, 0.00238687133069418, 0.0032181201992030747, 0.0027352268055437865, 0.00442274187644786, 0.004104865719206881, 0.004019650789923614, 0.004180288026522028, 0.0049327004952822535, 0.002548174151610239, 0.003966964619836231, 0.0037041882894650684, 0.003861296473593337, 0.004033964585540777, 0.0042178140334210735, 0.003545960057302634, 0.0041636329660158684, 0.003862044068860651 ] }, "crps": 4.9412736237329735, "crpss": 0.03685962302509471, "rps": 0.4420120372323375, "rpss": 0.021769783391683672, "mean_bias_mm": -0.0008793715575340366, "mean_mae_mm": 7.547706640075567, "mean_rmse_mm": 14.885927105536096, "spread_error_ratio": 0.9900518028137218, "zero_fraction": 0.003360517750261664, "correlation": 0.04568864789728332, "pit_histogram": [ 0.15521, 0.06756, 0.07633, 0.08806, 0.09835, 0.09914, 0.1014, 0.10241, 0.10563, 0.10592 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.14113626609229432 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 3.1535805161722394, 3.044319408185258, 6.733443912153874, 1.1829110581376914, 25.652864360969655, 2.030068440221771, 0.8771239810957066, 2.792592162139649, 6.020708928484979, 2.5981314392345216, 17.377224123176184, 3.6621326492177984, 2.5465199570099704, 3.8591413040741283, 1.8485020220513946, 7.119124741382695, 6.393912317108155, 1.4339800566101863, 0.6848073884409926, 3.28257184285361, 1.2842318374283836, 1.3182300009874632, 4.177742065437762, 1.6320735990165505, 1.0680279337146714, 1.7678554085393725, 5.10892793918077, 1.0372498812384676, 9.727452675087735, 1.469992857921392, 4.607346841507891, 1.416123932759011 ], "crps_clim": [ 2.1962156929740804, 2.1788012116298163, 5.48867715919352, 1.7773343754893767, 34.32641868083757, 1.8627034830071907, 1.9715211508068933, 2.4850922338242754, 5.825734906672177, 2.4213405279615716, 15.788972303238339, 4.131178922483057, 1.7605249281308137, 3.8097412938741515, 2.031828268076108, 7.918858186445213, 6.382316217886629, 2.0199351210734884, 2.268887809680827, 3.672694877557107, 1.9649460420847091, 2.2337494697367615, 2.0965498141099683, 1.8861829698011934, 2.2991833116108906, 2.179019211557004, 5.967272104997054, 1.9197227040545963, 8.917885769487894, 1.949950438310964, 3.6326875965041756, 2.091802235366322 ], "rps": [ 0.6595552839941501, 0.6107627988630073, 0.6080520254321037, 0.3122967963839981, 0.1401216630391875, 0.41100939971443995, 0.30374066704287034, 0.46699409550146925, 0.5830989068814251, 0.3501984986429541, 0.6832271131445097, 0.4029104268215727, 0.3818185356840649, 0.4298099236541156, 0.39875410300737973, 0.48330381153411933, 0.4565221998374645, 0.4392867799383168, 0.1946977427527159, 0.4434778859069096, 0.3352398192344896, 0.3079414705474185, 0.4292537148578711, 0.3651630122808301, 0.3328465981265752, 0.4021707284478985, 0.44399848500073846, 0.3455577554374875, 0.501226661090574, 0.4631665017944752, 0.4247403831810245, 0.4218524231612555 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5381511480265782, 0.5320773657724542, 0.49130303512889106, 0.38498928938989757, 0.5629552549427681, 0.38290325595556074, 0.3789331388282408, 0.4247100795822977, 0.5050165255638045, 0.3889502709540875, 0.5619307137731465, 0.5113363017784888, 0.34719627842747985, 0.37617173880982513, 0.3204093918893131, 0.5500282293506343, 0.49836540383658773, 0.43075767900875145, 0.5392014406556627, 0.46954411522421585, 0.5074149366392898, 0.43384618252591467, 0.40967831680734257, 0.35129371669777265, 0.556013264324054, 0.4676500824441632, 0.4913710435949474, 0.4477522470171603, 0.4328472498436856, 0.3755117997097963, 0.35728991623881007, 0.43983412768140073 ], "bias": [ 7.008361995310851, 7.781336322247033, -6.672991192561873, 1.339384387552466, -29.993808196645517, 3.2257438275575265, 1.1141846983390324, 2.5564140996159805, -5.8137333202791455, 2.9527637446183608, -19.81215843182368, -1.8339733961157956, 6.103955984175728, 0.9224467149046149, -0.5444896472913796, -6.46291595505825, -5.618131431235134, 3.847027353020976, 3.5558107036531577, -0.6555851764374798, 4.662148393097046, 4.730784301546067, 9.265974539602658, 4.758811277687636, 3.5582386712034952, 6.172891052186612, -4.351558127854025, 2.8401259885290338, -10.48635399673721, 2.081487715625748, 8.444650905023668, 4.639866902451264 ], "mae": [ 7.008769023687804, 7.781490181366071, 7.407558295922848, 2.238313651703532, 30.028464423025696, 3.616592357646138, 1.566637872892289, 4.159811930214779, 6.575696854332011, 3.8375583083297493, 19.821969669537726, 3.8089043087247276, 6.122723985814475, 7.012964403439193, 2.217807068642087, 6.764321961532861, 8.130477287319792, 4.018132173781284, 3.5601767236088087, 3.472375931780354, 4.662148393097046, 4.739652647860449, 9.352384563710027, 5.351394107999051, 3.56543863104199, 6.173367892016976, 6.239346275500538, 3.1315322202003752, 11.656518501153725, 2.8205502667169764, 9.168867971541443, 4.661062656946448 ], "mse": [ 171.0230946103683, 205.06562776777136, 417.4995183197732, 17.63614217877427, 2151.928434181634, 43.46019579481273, 10.132500270797731, 57.465486107007386, 192.88435333540855, 62.285862681174166, 926.9957288524499, 70.48733247638775, 153.3833889967749, 207.8025693955596, 35.595065933498105, 168.49054454805187, 331.74636002792124, 45.738842061334765, 38.790340297819256, 37.74514875603682, 60.55042124092584, 74.5465666440232, 293.4905081906137, 75.74298259032928, 38.14429911406373, 116.35582344270547, 199.7715036905702, 29.280423773345074, 572.4952436865299, 27.62921690367679, 208.07626335770684, 60.67730737627549 ], "var": [ 179.6144172543772, 306.71974789355227, 182.81253371589855, 127.712963934538, 202.37561696536008, 181.35885794158872, 64.53404788679498, 287.2539082118488, 271.7021438433298, 237.7970478373041, 147.23970223305537, 238.59539316572514, 278.07943608078364, 337.3368797961478, 70.92121315943005, 465.46483649674747, 222.22804231576882, 146.04961763706356, 174.43339183020618, 227.8033488774943, 189.67647761072377, 210.13987942793946, 414.1329263032226, 311.75789608499525, 99.46187609556844, 273.61837734968833, 256.1629363685553, 122.19961095606035, 183.7786360438298, 157.36108000981295, 529.9875657249096, 148.21478396851148 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 4.278403611923123, "crpss": 0.07153788076854861, "rps": 0.42289988159179415, "rpss": 0.06447351383416178, "mean_bias_mm": -0.021352790440329228, "mean_mae_mm": 6.583531579408977, "mean_rmse_mm": 14.89852876189051, "spread_error_ratio": 1.010058506046092, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.09197107672206394, "pit_histogram": [ 0.18752, 0.04156, 0.06459, 0.07241, 0.09639, 0.11092, 0.11342, 0.10796, 0.10493, 0.1003 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.2501018507624378 } }, "distribution_full": { "ethiopia": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0006685966516615, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.004286362959191588 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9963939263982302, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.02704818440973411 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9975793464378719, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.01675020240693561 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9997889464447144, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.01596272684050868 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0456728751973867, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.06868506856163116 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": -0.006140133683011003 } }, "ondj_domain": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 0.998903180454835, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.00409234335566433 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9833244311460827, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.028886352489850303 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0008884168699828, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.01691876066557197 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9999158302060523, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.01718837281960874 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.055006116759943, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.07138845588630181 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": 0.0 } } } }, "gqm": { "training": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 4.825226880693111, 4.802237210492229, 13.148866591662358, 5.80433310893543, 19.78680175148613, 3.6913662747436717, 1.9453435671762906, 3.8826111616367944, 6.869493288480182, 3.492880799235333, 14.789908046012053, 3.8993383500364325, 3.968373637615547, 4.737264000828309, 4.736664937470295, 8.029752398365444, 5.199142195806976, 2.5631577782014707, 2.0318212857670375, 3.0565034514941307, 2.2099795505870024, 2.650935153102213, 4.074163188895512, 3.5721854016248957 ], "crps_clim": [ 3.147316707451114, 3.345505329459557, 10.984966213801052, 5.565431468435425, 27.0718763908127, 3.331872595873229, 3.2339333066026654, 2.898578484108726, 7.306127788484703, 3.578837768945852, 13.61369806885984, 4.185041134572365, 2.552105347257009, 4.271290701634523, 4.644138020744405, 8.101898044577364, 4.707631815249459, 2.7497107572454813, 3.224323436142348, 3.3810268425956997, 2.5984657102999638, 2.914534006884459, 3.0779701844454106, 3.298398263301115 ], "rps": [ 0.8314028153252307, 0.8437955633293271, 0.6932271779038838, 0.5085902374312348, 0.22655378159416692, 0.5608894289548647, 0.4858984974331318, 0.667126827038469, 0.4315653758210484, 0.41600070706170034, 0.5482315545230967, 0.40111600645328466, 0.5427873680091231, 0.49855809872683643, 0.45566052800292267, 0.5101907444190361, 0.5561959625472127, 0.47283622272872816, 0.5110108090245246, 0.41677542358202335, 0.5213903846141957, 0.5400996350137991, 0.39715722442709245, 0.5908506706281731 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.49730130537920497, 0.5299108646278966, 0.4968209717644765, 0.45140321931037847, 0.5120439289026995, 0.41031169775019555, 0.4779713217459693, 0.4530884207483443, 0.5043277856041234, 0.41692670592375, 0.5103230613419248, 0.4397744822519408, 0.3965890908147674, 0.3999865051869261, 0.4105095348843729, 0.49534705826094655, 0.4525412470698913, 0.40263417109494526, 0.4947135592926832, 0.4107579460380184, 0.4281083679843292, 0.43735476661089284, 0.37946484897479493, 0.465353650018479 ], "bias": [ 9.664963083193422, 10.319766519589493, -14.493984375527106, -5.042517403238938, -21.739337444466535, -0.4374592143164983, 2.5755984533167626, 7.486806434922796, -6.759834255880876, 1.0409310058220373, -16.904560934394244, -0.27691258875942226, 8.513319423691776, -1.3081362557437508, -2.8462243508308585, -7.723822302009326, 0.05459113947877812, 4.151197587993555, 4.5199766562463495, 0.8571357522976528, 4.484920417735437, 5.636027522977985, 7.280031554139093, 8.54094964767469 ], "mae": [ 9.72564751257723, 10.352663982230077, 15.120613125946942, 7.488490055731687, 23.51278987792579, 4.97861940493649, 3.583411407124802, 8.266011970945213, 8.033009063054074, 5.020169055748302, 17.346286327997866, 5.239921916920046, 8.656268636859593, 6.556856064654421, 6.131747348855631, 8.974709886345678, 7.828234726817824, 5.09018530019108, 4.822467307110111, 4.3022525975620916, 4.684432220552864, 5.726699143824785, 8.295605841269946, 8.76532451622004 ], "mse": [ 230.11364929684663, 277.5000850186398, 896.996195435513, 202.6201094575773, 1422.890124236336, 62.25758671292847, 33.583205330335836, 164.75631564528183, 185.0131516378406, 77.72862723481259, 807.4834029340742, 93.80902837144845, 193.78339679495178, 159.1868282148934, 142.63171393684576, 254.22761458976765, 203.99495761012543, 59.987592849911316, 60.48515443954168, 50.871781721917564, 52.52874268343335, 84.88297710865523, 221.61882924337246, 173.25715722497276 ], "var": [ 243.6594623604709, 402.01402997795697, 179.28665758643146, 104.50883570577267, 443.76017931501275, 128.8567761357778, 65.28036199813853, 343.04984464284274, 294.2980098234151, 202.53221074956807, 185.61760651714505, 246.39069866663704, 343.48792783299655, 329.1645200775221, 96.75013098658734, 369.96842725784757, 287.72649396003425, 133.77405287578134, 172.8391219588057, 179.43646885278454, 142.8459964249047, 145.83074529309036, 369.0301470457643, 430.4357697460776 ], "zero": [ 0.10332533223200493, 0.10204879805851794, 0.11512227434232034, 0.09888033799931625, 0.07378752262619113, 0.08452932514398098, 0.1151888071238949, 0.1075372208586077, 0.12453683393766157, 0.08866101252294557, 0.10630598878733838, 0.09506201296314762, 0.08711411790726883, 0.09684960023420192, 0.10403240762509865, 0.08587610058648232, 0.10326571155950286, 0.10025162081578509, 0.13498725779812537, 0.11545469504325467, 0.11857543647272045, 0.11930377248309398, 0.10528919150667779, 0.10480280878287361 ] }, "crps": 5.5736812504312025, "crpss": 0.00012204968186479981, "rps": 0.5261629601913794, "rpss": -0.16134051820288708, "mean_bias_mm": -0.10027391358698863, "mean_mae_mm": 8.27093405380844, "mean_rmse_mm": 15.958550774493412, "spread_error_ratio": 0.9775243786352225, "zero_fraction": 0.10378284114212555, "correlation": -0.01630603371606206, "pit_histogram": [ 0.26163, 0.0426, 0.05526, 0.06308, 0.05938, 0.0585, 0.07342, 0.09454, 0.14945, 0.14215 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.5064528434072094 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 3.8050778922864605, 3.5972159001155877, 6.818838258077248, 1.4339695902768803, 25.484145556554033, 2.2449994488334917, 1.287706933431866, 2.844339123160143, 5.93396606551792, 2.4457051768804403, 17.24871652353428, 3.245093099480368, 2.9358048957983263, 4.228796782790521, 2.068572564238948, 6.706929033868462, 6.543038877690138, 2.09540920500122, 1.689238749076488, 2.786447330736232, 1.983316991890666, 2.1113796726270615, 4.140205693487167, 2.03589341562445 ], "crps_clim": [ 2.4548094454165224, 2.4172161936748946, 5.333194544027777, 1.8549628212328, 34.12225179677904, 1.8644358450759109, 2.122993377234286, 2.4401382645813325, 5.73783658336709, 2.3217318677782153, 15.529706680297545, 3.9621897190875477, 1.8639890286330005, 3.876280862498442, 2.06925731997254, 7.631461938517677, 6.263162085572975, 2.1837307589862482, 2.5462616594235836, 3.4498462746206284, 2.1833797898673692, 2.4890121894953605, 2.173582577005678, 2.0020724813943143 ], "rps": [ 1.011981675320153, 0.9671856831777825, 0.7396231700014235, 0.588313779534614, 0.13909587702282364, 0.6884827719343972, 0.5430564217880186, 0.6719605461584306, 0.47116556555685635, 0.28550794744315383, 0.6250166959794308, 0.3623570436131366, 0.4841661927366028, 0.5773314797492362, 0.4267226204120859, 0.43051047713288576, 0.6339826395900765, 0.6256041221916904, 0.7070411702867664, 0.4327147426208181, 0.7638177056594466, 0.6161502921411404, 0.4382020618886623, 0.4575729485010279 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5271012391842729, 0.5237026472803199, 0.4726651024187634, 0.4183814425674277, 0.5463137996219282, 0.3948310596898503, 0.4065592098294793, 0.42831468140896223, 0.49352864345894915, 0.3706979572196848, 0.5445864342119232, 0.4920445653961977, 0.3565574386141641, 0.3975457684832652, 0.35150037945920126, 0.5287991707856597, 0.48528999945591406, 0.42598320924629246, 0.518005444784471, 0.4652291028680146, 0.5021412621347012, 0.4343952625071855, 0.40487741585469383, 0.3925124516437722 ], "bias": [ 7.200120076631711, 8.520198352086561, -6.414213440128145, 1.811572070007667, -29.25485734847401, 3.3962993519222695, 1.7087984044259346, 2.5725327181839135, -4.960262025939548, 2.973692654802695, -19.577773653014514, -1.9053478858620716, 6.764924699673596, 1.365729091032565, 0.05849673369677146, -5.973905738384429, -5.660999191223937, 4.376157950065347, 4.151461072059019, -0.7287844872437876, 4.882156801076948, 5.094876884985421, 9.438799513903472, 5.878434492705521 ], "mae": [ 7.3143500741396785, 8.569575890552848, 7.426290180056521, 2.6970389584214067, 29.464237083270422, 3.854592807445641, 2.0894575394040458, 4.445175532151459, 6.632520624802041, 3.798979137746246, 19.58338077939465, 3.912009776007475, 6.816257191529056, 7.336921680952641, 2.780970207265228, 6.520060351322638, 8.25778285868849, 4.559212071397417, 4.23885041225531, 3.09438811615467, 4.950036690430345, 5.231803601921117, 9.607653655852864, 6.430373812177665 ], "mse": [ 167.2805368755187, 235.20254185761263, 417.42979659089355, 20.674510088391685, 2058.881937658453, 42.86200237170053, 13.095057100661137, 63.25135477494082, 191.32704542286575, 58.240830126337755, 906.3058058838202, 74.27733686751267, 165.46802923219977, 210.78225849236912, 40.53504752002017, 154.68569783401236, 339.94853635315314, 54.427671870406115, 52.458559778780504, 30.005307533606988, 64.64877859015424, 84.58954983347813, 307.6320946091574, 106.46936874445025 ], "var": [ 154.74405958810217, 460.03243764979095, 152.45068206183578, 99.98479896209504, 453.3710179795126, 148.6738561923555, 53.23573177699706, 237.4539135819245, 330.07853541544927, 214.42546205914266, 127.1693554328301, 171.76287253196682, 309.28261892944573, 361.45020359624135, 53.27267123129311, 515.6653877190518, 160.71165759983958, 112.30967181881894, 158.24853713621772, 175.63383178892855, 138.2985933724025, 175.76694879293666, 508.85447909658825, 529.0004431036614 ], "zero": [ 0.1307175021420097, 0.12939245625780796, 0.16526676862454592, 0.1579220138821867, 0.08411454252238208, 0.1000897530149068, 0.17330637479240413, 0.14150299119108764, 0.17685672231888122, 0.11435809775439316, 0.1503425774675568, 0.1279279176693487, 0.11721496295659498, 0.10529785987688754, 0.14699004255470693, 0.09843671839784729, 0.12708097267912696, 0.13134770115898314, 0.19156731982318348, 0.15067428902694355, 0.16070978129177196, 0.16251020019846424, 0.1192021674670458, 0.14927552279148926 ] }, "crps": 4.821450282540766, "crpss": 0.026735668592688056, "rps": 0.5703151512683609, "rpss": -0.2578673454236835, "mean_bias_mm": -0.17841220429212626, "mean_mae_mm": 7.0671632930558275, "mean_rmse_mm": 15.626472805267689, "spread_error_ratio": 0.9949876864562162, "zero_fraction": 0.13800438566085652, "correlation": 0.06649177475415649, "pit_histogram": [ 0.36854, 0.00851, 0.01689, 0.01942, 0.03231, 0.04539, 0.066, 0.11527, 0.19745, 0.13023 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.8229731410677229 } }, "operational": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 2.116497373042785, 3.3871779505048534, 3.9938548381140455, 2.2029690927084515, 8.627716064148442, 2.3025015207448702, 5.049356583436268, 2.1689440792257124 ], "crps_clim": [ 3.000358402837215, 3.2118104787747215, 4.432332626338175, 2.616293468105364, 7.502465706182092, 2.7696475536717284, 4.029967303787228, 2.9260298617309384 ], "rps": [ 0.5850179151105266, 0.6547466027485641, 0.36868673420128234, 0.5327850330366732, 0.5287062806393276, 0.3607834233238185, 0.49398628283335727, 0.5097871518578586 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5137613090872692, 0.49705239615939123, 0.40610073525670304, 0.44669601338418186, 0.4481977724282379, 0.39955792469123536, 0.39062127201913327, 0.49615040098932883 ], "bias": [ 4.618077096305163, 8.270521780944332, -1.8696172254498127, 3.0261357968762663, -8.76128977129624, 2.3856177818001565, 6.53789403256655, 4.955932822145406 ], "mae": [ 4.689032555088956, 8.325627713656345, 5.08292023495461, 4.375756777911949, 10.131200984237651, 4.04208622227501, 9.283311028057119, 5.079277086214698 ], "mse": [ 51.852593242155415, 163.59158918758283, 117.23700545356867, 49.45838622899237, 350.827411840238, 43.65600179970623, 193.76892066691093, 59.06096966368591 ], "var": [ 95.32179223010468, 322.29385343941067, 196.02977835894967, 129.41033193591474, 189.6806028100687, 172.6306167911219, 606.018215895048, 121.35960335853362 ], "zero": [ 0.12018915044358605, 0.11443747725438917, 0.10431021090840997, 0.11903078643221832, 0.1114423747223438, 0.11068548092043562, 0.07773672622065536, 0.11435940247021381 ] }, "crps": 3.731127187740679, "crpss": 0.020987565512013195, "rps": 0.5043124279689261, "rpss": -0.12127428716695277, "mean_bias_mm": 2.3954090392364775, "mean_mae_mm": 6.376151575299542, "mean_rmse_mm": 11.343791683575429, "spread_error_ratio": 1.3342824118450372, "zero_fraction": 0.10902395117153152, "correlation": 0.18607664875698463, "pit_histogram": [ 0.28199, 0.05028, 0.06547, 0.07254, 0.06737, 0.06688, 0.0583, 0.07469, 0.1391, 0.12339 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.4889458688528937 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 1.899584460630781, 2.3986156216170977, 5.000222778982429, 1.6419977606565554, 9.412485305790401, 1.5439531366446988, 4.532534174428288, 2.0115497230719424 ], "crps_clim": [ 2.366231987002849, 2.259909659422711, 5.567918347623332, 1.9966771549125995, 8.330258482082852, 1.9477425770778494, 3.4305474768916633, 2.1733161564516763 ], "rps": [ 0.843487085376607, 0.7132197444722185, 0.424202641740952, 0.6276739978318665, 0.48200549905733653, 0.3213715572859249, 0.48816482840435943, 0.6102966211451103 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5473323710222779, 0.45950888532469003, 0.47310561454117583, 0.451258434482434, 0.43752408372393053, 0.3769753182133201, 0.34410807043894076, 0.45220364528394885 ], "bias": [ 3.9366645621828416, 6.352312332386777, -4.022385009725542, 3.195973429328435, -9.848132740107394, 2.442547548633951, 9.078201415162095, 4.723377606772784 ], "mae": [ 4.082013631585797, 6.437911003664658, 5.976072604462415, 3.5616534327525007, 11.327139328854743, 3.0282402046865995, 9.558252952709934, 4.801252855947112 ], "mse": [ 43.72624847512783, 119.77705928099859, 187.55887372822366, 34.40929841697643, 535.7141911444844, 30.314091708233498, 221.83667514721856, 61.524250519711764 ], "var": [ 75.55708403705772, 258.206760133918, 234.8422012090496, 90.56586061976242, 174.84490684652357, 130.10332279636924, 802.881544864243, 108.16420002643848 ], "zero": [ 0.16176091739482848, 0.16039723523999422, 0.12373252148422864, 0.16137438546836066, 0.1488639803831554, 0.15168517548945992, 0.06248130614767974, 0.15055816169558411 ] }, "crps": 3.5551178702277744, "crpss": -0.013121018223989145, "rps": 0.5638027469142969, "rpss": -0.27340515588435443, "mean_bias_mm": 1.9823198930792434, "mean_mae_mm": 6.09656700183297, "mean_rmse_mm": 12.424072844788936, "spread_error_ratio": 1.2322841529604114, "zero_fraction": 0.1401067104129114, "correlation": 0.12625946956225317, "pit_histogram": [ 0.41358, 0.02311, 0.02737, 0.01794, 0.02725, 0.03471, 0.05523, 0.09061, 0.19925, 0.11095 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.8475581987086677 } }, "full": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 4.3785292012622286, 4.3641715396711795, 13.392792877285524, 5.979645007165764, 20.395574576258973, 3.6251521571594543, 1.7974994048483064, 3.546964303127942, 7.038311932766668, 3.548860228711682, 15.212127893548162, 4.013474868221786, 3.6621072690699563, 4.679992741124921, 4.64176842664599, 8.390054332809205, 5.001729455971308, 2.3170484511612504, 1.7963015556026793, 3.034474223036733, 1.988919520087537, 2.3920388525527967, 3.84640333134863, 3.2973005024760216, 2.008094198467287, 3.2747337483108883, 4.0775219182677285, 2.0573647847379206, 9.03308585306844, 2.231502816496143, 4.800426433927147, 2.0389555806088064 ], "crps_clim": [ 2.6897179853589925, 2.867287610747155, 11.613583597576943, 5.886197674812449, 27.77500554826608, 3.3326847383568015, 2.8099124904438204, 2.624493357547262, 7.71221722782229, 3.8123457628295836, 14.271810450341063, 4.481516504313957, 2.329174473258749, 4.367684268620377, 4.603049696222213, 8.657359289497048, 4.649450179185341, 2.4755201422145108, 2.7360868719092664, 3.4495472657845374, 2.254603487223936, 2.505246979400119, 3.1059697413108407, 2.855418618210857, 2.766727211701212, 2.9690284184817233, 4.63923895270541, 2.3781737857801595, 8.084302871907116, 2.606734429626978, 4.181426375823429, 2.68056081509455 ], "rps": [ 0.8340944722220336, 0.8650788629358743, 0.6618405744399208, 0.4698596610035812, 0.21462303572559385, 0.5531194749008835, 0.49014897202813396, 0.6543751936710552, 0.4254866534359469, 0.4140440460281709, 0.5333820911961022, 0.3999891594597832, 0.5228025284817135, 0.4916771504809811, 0.4400426522969822, 0.5150524016251448, 0.5445975016827771, 0.48736787116419805, 0.5428538661180734, 0.41729654822469586, 0.5250523118917557, 0.5375490773010059, 0.36931403371576765, 0.5806351456878687, 0.5944171277957274, 0.6943530205401869, 0.36350834705231855, 0.5399096607965972, 0.5054455788633172, 0.38599097959856227, 0.4936158685016284, 0.5241319207582081 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.49041507783712296, 0.5369376306368444, 0.5100667474154729, 0.4521868075526217, 0.5217072761921506, 0.4133935720112422, 0.47234840051899624, 0.43488625630302596, 0.5255484732176574, 0.43690918492602165, 0.5252437168376151, 0.45828462824902266, 0.38486514853319226, 0.4081996460632345, 0.40282801997469403, 0.5125391329245191, 0.44742012622339855, 0.39216921729503385, 0.5031366769351334, 0.41349098916290067, 0.4059993484819169, 0.41024969837800246, 0.3849070120945385, 0.44180910334017454, 0.4984255550790732, 0.4983306583397526, 0.40315870128184617, 0.42477518647713974, 0.4628459104807814, 0.3911057460601312, 0.4012825990880415, 0.4936916796322727 ], "bias": [ 8.829075675587832, 9.414736342065142, -14.889370381048014, -5.451679727399888, -22.50049092019867, -0.9206773245730814, 2.2155137202486097, 6.569130809215614, -7.47375867850725, 0.3420882846282917, -17.281752149391963, -1.0247872353014305, 7.667449905062865, -1.9708664473284039, -3.233683066271689, -8.356871939023586, -0.7949610787330754, 3.493208980547559, 4.0324455841232885, 0.15803343616732268, 3.9334389338705775, 5.056913928283942, 6.207278980420716, 7.702943694264992, 4.318064319102171, 7.882963244444862, -2.57635395803884, 2.6330730673834815, -9.543863564048085, 1.9284216268267425, 5.842671018954343, 4.6025841266460485 ], "mae": [ 8.904982909579463, 9.459740942033976, 15.405664696380004, 7.6249165333837166, 24.156597892719034, 4.776443073962528, 3.2538848345586735, 7.396683785628238, 8.31156738912506, 4.968384368795392, 17.779227897514065, 5.362857000965786, 7.900563333397472, 6.272847860885147, 5.956390178785957, 9.519455491259903, 7.261567639803778, 4.423291498694917, 4.325278787567855, 4.173437219598026, 4.1452730438570695, 5.17919842074438, 7.4905058719671604, 7.961016080275259, 4.398547092020243, 7.949928836921861, 5.136357106659691, 4.012812540290714, 10.501526318166679, 3.695811804539937, 8.670033708025004, 4.729459937728813 ], "mse": [ 194.90983789688778, 237.2262324146419, 915.6888092803107, 210.97635464184262, 1478.1313812904068, 59.48089487587733, 29.195647844827306, 133.55349630220417, 196.75193264014905, 78.47959274578352, 838.3289095399628, 99.61911574362674, 167.46662051968195, 156.74965536966096, 140.4739686459333, 280.5349870670811, 189.546907434504, 46.4692452551556, 49.94585986571091, 49.555585069946936, 42.81455142610599, 71.52671963942099, 194.99878864098764, 146.47672798870818, 46.70196611622917, 152.2308214610362, 126.99912323563971, 42.62514712090105, 383.3973380690263, 38.50870108244512, 170.7638212618349, 52.09335754940608 ], "var": [ 212.5293730637326, 344.96475447605695, 160.3481382104719, 93.67907508018784, 414.0391671890839, 115.14811146170264, 59.32182873881892, 292.90533447242746, 248.95165480694308, 179.2859855295137, 168.9061390316485, 213.71595832719666, 302.4153145378374, 290.14628091616834, 88.40939363112601, 331.0941149594314, 237.32648053378574, 111.77005663610073, 152.4946189811974, 155.66232391138232, 125.8383305836225, 130.23210031784893, 315.089235886251, 362.70468798348264, 84.67295244072292, 284.138758598943, 170.15121355860367, 115.2930517481867, 159.45628167255626, 155.59607256415666, 580.2319882068767, 107.54099935452177 ], "zero": [ 0.11231798781372215, 0.11142283484108327, 0.12316402460769435, 0.1080527413447572, 0.08142440471541768, 0.0950572085123768, 0.1231941024821068, 0.11757882222676296, 0.13136398630993287, 0.10093280302225896, 0.11685672015834002, 0.10448412424515585, 0.09670387989532825, 0.1046578749752834, 0.11298960319418919, 0.09556985905519239, 0.11342343275444776, 0.1103818914418537, 0.14190270505917307, 0.1250438071313023, 0.12616160884430025, 0.12737700223393303, 0.11604605087604133, 0.11341165348586807, 0.12805337598519906, 0.12310136889797166, 0.11035383268927444, 0.12615414328547267, 0.1200807458549215, 0.11787966878626424, 0.08622706911516159, 0.1230546442363967 ] }, "crps": 5.05821649955622, "crpss": 0.014065417708482242, "rps": 0.5184892434257684, "rpss": -0.14748423613375006, "mean_bias_mm": -0.09965877475061158, "mean_mae_mm": 7.534507940494869, "mean_rmse_mm": 14.81365723120469, "spread_error_ratio": 0.9814460646117055, "zero_fraction": 0.11388824931491198, "correlation": 0.03439100958646145, "pit_histogram": [ 0.25727, 0.04261, 0.0576, 0.06461, 0.06225, 0.0608, 0.06935, 0.08647, 0.1467, 0.15234 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.5126294564649424 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 3.467256175710083, 3.2862825696705533, 6.876887455164444, 1.3910574505947586, 25.859316560550656, 2.0675843492810158, 1.2064876967424452, 2.711402911557615, 6.034645850880357, 2.311459980161657, 17.518492158381942, 3.3303172411596647, 2.6728449403456196, 4.054455904447345, 2.010216083658226, 6.9548787954885976, 6.5744095537450775, 1.8952287865206456, 1.4538123607372524, 2.9340158471869793, 1.7456794505217748, 1.8745229892207917, 3.846994696572277, 1.8708016232820603, 1.7759678189483488, 2.2798348872756153, 5.197253503485241, 1.49495081754544, 9.905195628604536, 1.5045755226933837, 4.34554225274099, 1.8690562227338405 ], "crps_clim": [ 2.1962156929740804, 2.1788012116298163, 5.48867715919352, 1.7773343754893767, 34.32641868083757, 1.8627034830071907, 1.9715211508068933, 2.4850922338242754, 5.825734906672177, 2.4213405279615716, 15.788972303238339, 4.131178922483057, 1.7605249281308137, 3.8097412938741515, 2.031828268076108, 7.918858186445213, 6.382316217886629, 2.0199351210734884, 2.268887809680827, 3.672694877557107, 1.9649460420847091, 2.2337494697367615, 2.0965498141099683, 1.8861829698011934, 2.2991833116108906, 2.179019211557004, 5.967272104997054, 1.9197227040545963, 8.917885769487894, 1.949950438310964, 3.6326875965041756, 2.091802235366322 ], "rps": [ 1.0205684247716458, 0.9718996234440663, 0.7358702466957329, 0.5443843465747201, 0.1450310359956145, 0.6396407221208218, 0.5204220400499014, 0.6384004873625666, 0.4917260081210766, 0.2900831890700598, 0.6208114771160617, 0.37323605317457426, 0.4378889097176019, 0.5364663067380796, 0.38394198020647075, 0.43590134266716085, 0.6303487909685894, 0.6768590085012256, 0.7717444809891292, 0.4471443080915101, 0.8006763972278946, 0.6686681313002208, 0.39972420244807655, 0.4069862589419774, 0.8781863571779908, 0.7630117430215554, 0.42131120941516925, 0.6512182082645334, 0.4391769995651045, 0.37320042052924973, 0.47877616501990533, 0.6110166024257374 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5381511480265782, 0.5320773657724542, 0.49130303512889106, 0.38498928938989757, 0.5629552549427681, 0.38290325595556074, 0.3789331388282408, 0.4247100795822977, 0.5050165255638045, 0.3889502709540875, 0.5619307137731465, 0.5113363017784888, 0.34719627842747985, 0.37617173880982513, 0.3204093918893131, 0.5500282293506343, 0.49836540383658773, 0.43075767900875145, 0.5392014406556627, 0.46954411522421585, 0.5074149366392898, 0.43384618252591467, 0.40967831680734257, 0.35129371669777265, 0.556013264324054, 0.4676500824441632, 0.4913710435949474, 0.4477522470171603, 0.4328472498436856, 0.3755117997097963, 0.35728991623881007, 0.43983412768140073 ], "bias": [ 6.637260611701167, 7.81805427047129, -6.775118212336247, 1.4327259578496319, -29.6038671997412, 2.851030519437427, 1.3978875333996952, 1.9471922161126847, -5.54658856837162, 2.363193117360302, -19.81653421127013, -2.505606826051488, 6.0889981336019625, 0.7468906098473865, -0.2921070299518633, -6.572848868609859, -6.205383884769455, 3.7943151673222433, 3.7225742749596713, -1.287132322309229, 4.358614564466622, 4.60607205936209, 8.454293993059514, 5.10823067713995, 3.6858840984838563, 6.016966755087669, -4.739323229923669, 2.874224309218241, -10.586902770095595, 2.0804744262084722, 8.665136838765227, 4.404562851054047 ], "mae": [ 6.780585358203998, 7.890227407049882, 7.580080170713428, 2.4551284324785314, 29.721538105941764, 3.423037544627338, 1.8882583002754025, 3.9442106367660457, 6.71972204542382, 3.424667438811191, 19.822284402675535, 3.9845745396491044, 6.177921820103406, 6.762069762698715, 2.6275827093984754, 6.936234223670153, 8.184852726171878, 4.046097299468798, 3.8409990791594235, 3.3717869236614737, 4.4610869359802185, 4.762965780154572, 8.660414388269876, 5.740627835310407, 3.8523145596183763, 6.131846198514538, 6.232186426252346, 3.2818866177470554, 11.734272119357502, 2.813238913827682, 9.119739501459227, 4.516032419552675 ], "mse": [ 149.372364288765, 209.8926208758535, 422.40575200281694, 18.350332460474245, 2090.9300140998316, 35.451766158279334, 11.562367740148392, 52.867307819990046, 194.73659869249434, 48.38401346701272, 924.1480519605531, 78.46358306185867, 144.7666288338919, 198.29054884701515, 39.325027517815464, 174.3527510174139, 343.27531607981814, 44.79780779877475, 45.011606574057495, 34.34625038607966, 54.99231182127791, 74.07532593573752, 273.52455032037426, 89.60496716185772, 40.16689514826408, 113.97885416878034, 204.54558099551744, 29.849146718939686, 579.5186647316388, 27.319325885378976, 204.01662150135294, 56.73133889914726 ], "var": [ 143.84705895750696, 405.5298070263629, 140.7530575782513, 90.53172909071074, 458.0122504238929, 135.92381969900046, 49.54914171819623, 214.23381303200267, 284.6158093764402, 198.2467205887048, 121.74981254988933, 154.59893053633755, 280.53440536673475, 339.10592380204105, 49.21573910371765, 484.62665260344295, 143.6965281573121, 94.6165685431596, 144.42535134026494, 156.3283190520246, 123.28328232646045, 161.21690640172747, 442.3854413817783, 458.5744542483823, 70.05126056873183, 237.5395482711189, 205.86700895964796, 82.1797904224147, 148.2086656642702, 122.40111947392266, 811.0181348176719, 100.75515163408974 ], "zero": [ 0.1458125179768785, 0.14413724950007092, 0.17730726480866363, 0.1704464473412868, 0.09614451009038398, 0.1165756747163173, 0.18339659859331653, 0.15735752004321846, 0.18660521277519393, 0.13097814970127533, 0.16550340510135195, 0.1428117525165644, 0.13363074205177808, 0.11824666915055704, 0.1619508751174354, 0.11464717606019813, 0.14335726403052776, 0.14783860377663754, 0.20242217188760359, 0.16597898105799452, 0.17205035630806692, 0.17385652616816796, 0.13686867050826124, 0.16124298511043308, 0.17427536794187257, 0.17325196227079928, 0.13134105459435857, 0.1718782658799121, 0.162403023261436, 0.1611597648255183, 0.07652343424950762, 0.16412934030876133 ] }, "crps": 4.447544627675288, "crpss": 0.03483236156587877, "rps": 0.5688850461785633, "rpss": -0.2584705067319857, "mean_bias_mm": -0.1524009418287876, "mean_mae_mm": 6.590264706968526, "mean_rmse_mm": 14.799761709411078, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0031742717808012, "zero_fraction": 0.1520040480538859, "correlation": 0.08601320419240427, "pit_histogram": [ 0.3651, 0.01174, 0.02033, 0.01854, 0.03096, 0.04285, 0.06046, 0.10224, 0.19547, 0.15232 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.8302552372401262 } }, "distribution_full": { "ethiopia": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9975862200625781, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.12165955877955227 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9256207164850513, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.4949757016075665 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0224628200036099, "area_mean_abs_log": 2.551840962390344 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0613579063388838, "area_mean_abs_log": 1.7968546441655138 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9682316136542143, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.43043106244823737 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": 0.10438759788163919 } }, "ondj_domain": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9932480026464979, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.11018342678114867 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 0.833483890141825, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.775445532038809 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0985632841582185, "area_mean_abs_log": 3.954450967368421 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0129789447814794, "area_mean_abs_log": 2.331629278100373 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0090490382925958, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.5070344308837564 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": 0.15200404805388573 } } } }, "dqm": { "training": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 5.657612072589444, 5.4495163630882795, 14.56224517560549, 6.687970333848665, 15.202523376692753, 4.8263445468050605, 1.9151148787656962, 5.278504906508398, 6.776447852133358, 4.232114276568596, 15.96967327763035, 4.465806737160605, 6.023769467292006, 5.093358802053397, 5.195594005998078, 8.237228184346204, 6.090080172716411, 2.595890059224499, 1.585641380040309, 3.4379067400429215, 1.8601495926408367, 2.047184103934928, 5.960160942662436, 4.196837336932845 ], "crps_clim": [ 3.147316707451114, 3.345505329459557, 10.984966213801052, 5.565431468435425, 27.0718763908127, 3.331872595873229, 3.2339333066026654, 2.898578484108726, 7.306127788484703, 3.578837768945852, 13.61369806885984, 4.185041134572365, 2.552105347257009, 4.271290701634523, 4.644138020744405, 8.101898044577364, 4.707631815249459, 2.7497107572454813, 3.224323436142348, 3.3810268425956997, 2.5984657102999638, 2.914534006884459, 3.0779701844454106, 3.298398263301115 ], "rps": [ 0.7993076350174735, 0.7688074603843394, 0.8507703273409343, 0.5422694469200099, 0.16307228913836833, 0.6627921219486881, 0.2578594274936526, 0.8006610790575477, 0.40005509987060217, 0.5293676691002477, 0.856275466963693, 0.42503019574010853, 0.7636944787110971, 0.5594320157408812, 0.5926543677124912, 0.4972984223027591, 0.6744883919376364, 0.5201568430242607, 0.22307859404312466, 0.422018879163558, 0.41060040376327595, 0.3412457260068054, 0.4791344497790056, 0.7181472759673974 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.49730130537920497, 0.5299108646278966, 0.4968209717644765, 0.45140321931037847, 0.5120439289026995, 0.41031169775019555, 0.4779713217459693, 0.4530884207483443, 0.5043277856041234, 0.41692670592375, 0.5103230613419248, 0.4397744822519408, 0.3965890908147674, 0.3999865051869261, 0.4105095348843729, 0.49534705826094655, 0.4525412470698913, 0.40263417109494526, 0.4947135592926832, 0.4107579460380184, 0.4281083679843292, 0.43735476661089284, 0.37946484897479493, 0.465353650018479 ], "bias": [ 11.25536156217524, 11.46564287920059, -16.269330284263777, -6.640526945510692, -10.176557943454162, -2.3269807308237485, -0.6853275017148283, 9.91711227961368, -5.494521726600821, 2.0584398512246844, -17.69315629788798, 1.7031274973806019, 11.270594361517801, -1.2297058023665324, -4.979445713045769, -6.551718217260303, 1.3594449720825272, 3.7229587630653946, 1.5050669127967946, 1.5590505143408677, 2.9938673239296527, 3.782281747810679, 11.276689039742376, 9.689688797640262 ], "mae": [ 11.47334660033388, 11.57372607298972, 16.649550388213317, 8.072707522568855, 18.69823100353272, 6.012970884241476, 2.18487960437967, 10.59601182663324, 7.662393650206387, 6.2186469266506395, 18.512772538250314, 6.290919517640509, 11.609031320864819, 7.4966362151087, 6.346517616648785, 8.299921611704585, 9.482126755410246, 4.974687387764985, 2.8680414084227253, 4.782239548657736, 3.7348448558171206, 4.438321030196254, 12.24165320696574, 10.039271957942717 ], "mse": [ 309.016553946649, 357.2395557519332, 1018.4395613883644, 234.53412218161338, 885.9003475078607, 91.47041745512651, 24.238926749022458, 247.98578978444075, 174.6994427581515, 118.94035094436022, 882.562357925342, 116.18775209690315, 334.77462243305723, 181.65474289503368, 152.03571294206475, 233.11022814631232, 257.1476753226232, 54.666298494763346, 24.552818612254754, 58.140749087213386, 32.950961908451056, 54.03225047730602, 448.6948243309005, 196.38897725678206 ], "var": [ 320.95424952583306, 401.08170830525944, 140.79996456037827, 96.80260819021473, 872.7201773549655, 145.6402529789484, 40.43272251988979, 443.6245084678406, 342.66153424823307, 289.08189353713504, 207.5190564010038, 352.9252403661627, 399.15686652126624, 349.01993915751774, 98.4161694855041, 555.7273825501791, 358.4738267195719, 157.21801977409868, 100.68036312023287, 248.5032334820807, 139.61180505907456, 135.75290488402493, 639.8227478088628, 403.01699544823515 ], "zero": [ 0.0035898270648527623, 0.003240283697682219, 0.0033493396442080704, 0.002921177468887174, 0.0027054955830245484, 0.0025180543530206345, 0.0030021747046836203, 0.003804060973977669, 0.0035884260460612005, 0.0037225785111521686, 0.0034291328971276036, 0.0030546531444438953, 0.0028657953519373395, 0.003912743849665254, 0.004235037674534461, 0.003162483551520924, 0.003777959048253439, 0.003858094236034417, 0.004288298094384042, 0.004530450214594485, 0.004797178704905563, 0.004425015628552142, 0.004878922982456726, 0.003054695015036759 ] }, "crps": 5.972819774386732, "crpss": -0.07148050369249348, "rps": 0.5524257527969982, "rpss": -0.21930743621431592, "mean_bias_mm": 0.4796689724830225, "mean_mae_mm": 8.760810393797714, "mean_rmse_mm": 16.44354615089221, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0562275912426444, "zero_fraction": 0.003612994935041547, "correlation": 0.11967763974149498, "pit_histogram": [ 0.22317, 0.0259, 0.03597, 0.05385, 0.06898, 0.0746, 0.0873, 0.10685, 0.13672, 0.18666 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.5067938659666136 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 3.4055797159391394, 4.101381931282357, 7.893474277639827, 1.897203977084535, 16.085767549753776, 2.3127768157543276, 1.8645459130649509, 4.436595385171683, 5.747845946462534, 3.4246412386819167, 19.197099498280103, 3.74689137106023, 3.3536987586392666, 4.389585542978419, 2.6639372073156, 6.782683839361232, 6.926457799865967, 1.9619724629058979, 1.0300412611128997, 3.4294579750036402, 1.3966878825548532, 1.53685957142921, 6.726210617203797, 3.192615367870998 ], "crps_clim": [ 2.4548094454165224, 2.4172161936748946, 5.333194544027777, 1.8549628212328, 34.12225179677904, 1.8644358450759109, 2.122993377234286, 2.4401382645813325, 5.73783658336709, 2.3217318677782153, 15.529706680297545, 3.9621897190875477, 1.8639890286330005, 3.876280862498442, 2.06925731997254, 7.631461938517677, 6.263162085572975, 2.1837307589862482, 2.5462616594235836, 3.4498462746206284, 2.1833797898673692, 2.4890121894953605, 2.173582577005678, 2.0020724813943143 ], "rps": [ 0.4696432324802653, 0.7646708576945699, 0.8261455102638047, 0.33162373600032563, 0.01143188982542054, 0.4130394977977453, 0.3922392450545076, 0.8554002648841328, 0.30794825832207, 0.4924229224801076, 1.2414838188248947, 0.3706357081667031, 0.5522132786392929, 0.5274290966944365, 0.6712805258314956, 0.4420335854528746, 0.5204613720300131, 0.5811967220904808, 0.14219716505103497, 0.43370491841238945, 0.48072738762758627, 0.3158720997810352, 0.6135091191183227, 0.6978293692218435 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5271012391842729, 0.5237026472803199, 0.4726651024187634, 0.4183814425674277, 0.5463137996219282, 0.3948310596898503, 0.4065592098294793, 0.42831468140896223, 0.49352864345894915, 0.3706979572196848, 0.5445864342119232, 0.4920445653961977, 0.3565574386141641, 0.3975457684832652, 0.35150037945920126, 0.5287991707856597, 0.48528999945591406, 0.42598320924629246, 0.518005444784471, 0.4652291028680146, 0.5021412621347012, 0.4343952625071855, 0.40487741585469383, 0.3925124516437722 ], "bias": [ 6.648517307949831, 9.40451550274723, -8.239874569921003, -0.6538091322395335, -16.13444216982568, 2.722099826902049, -1.3280443008446583, 5.042638327360271, -3.8034962041632028, 4.271799878127482, -21.447755521864316, -0.5528211117161604, 6.940393506801366, 2.9391629478092174, -2.565730243891166, -2.9595790576790764, -5.02562278732967, 4.019780494742425, 1.7476351194640667, 0.9030895148246242, 3.9587648983490187, 3.188702989214808, 15.595121336492763, 7.887044292788261 ], "mae": [ 7.179685879444571, 9.582035775389816, 8.65549627443299, 2.1193899743718267, 18.743624865797187, 3.8539030784566317, 1.8912752196130969, 6.656087493602952, 6.552747571409754, 5.694366860161329, 21.447793298383143, 4.60976014573679, 7.542006062534854, 8.528789993068528, 2.9893776978369995, 4.823203323498007, 9.18857621972743, 4.188261772664418, 2.3387316299384437, 3.8630508359233406, 4.123135150944918, 4.011659260283649, 15.816900787927748, 8.542081722619386 ], "mse": [ 175.41606574799525, 296.7646973696215, 479.35034592010817, 16.736089758957213, 928.6061074590597, 47.972483862429556, 9.34128164296097, 112.48210159742251, 192.18619285601403, 131.8914651393812, 1041.4180584212343, 82.67129564870326, 221.50738384794806, 237.12399915790982, 50.882582759028764, 92.9021224187987, 371.502164681295, 38.113512922697325, 17.33699302638857, 41.104570938598364, 42.393273202815344, 51.12629822926153, 709.4329035139239, 153.38448624442879 ], "var": [ 187.42680473088922, 436.44958578112363, 128.86727288503556, 73.5432491033286, 969.9487042500076, 192.04713220089567, 30.366724867410625, 361.353442005004, 328.1204904246407, 346.434839078525, 147.4086727739939, 288.67133176276616, 344.3707463399378, 460.3491591745973, 43.315517963512924, 931.3211018531279, 265.7596240295233, 125.95535618678747, 98.16116503938689, 294.3928441548659, 164.17691598118606, 153.87192404035503, 991.304096868188, 521.339527163931 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 4.896000496100715, "crpss": 0.01168686387527007, "rps": 0.5189641492393897, "rpss": -0.14460935383188356, "mean_bias_mm": 0.5232537851707896, "mean_mae_mm": 7.2059142039069926, "mean_rmse_mm": 15.195457759320412, "spread_error_ratio": 1.1928346189826773, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.2721011704757899, "pit_histogram": [ 0.23827, 0.01676, 0.02588, 0.03297, 0.0529, 0.05762, 0.07189, 0.11121, 0.15626, 0.23624 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.6839662445119221 } }, "operational": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 1.469365448231277, 3.2050236550498106, 4.169662739025729, 2.161682942796826, 9.309161785004743, 2.5760976139604908, 9.282299881715895, 1.5521377856658272 ], "crps_clim": [ 3.000358402837215, 3.2118104787747215, 4.432332626338175, 2.616293468105364, 7.502465706182092, 2.7696475536717284, 4.029967303787228, 2.9260298617309384 ], "rps": [ 0.18854735758522678, 0.5989212011597074, 0.4942776550730995, 0.36639343186027734, 0.6742782106623065, 0.5469036048802932, 0.6690577962771582, 0.24709749761999594 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5137613090872692, 0.49705239615939123, 0.40610073525670304, 0.44669601338418186, 0.4481977724282379, 0.39955792469123536, 0.39062127201913327, 0.49615040098932883 ], "bias": [ 1.7644893080304502, 8.28006222196155, -2.3100137356811796, 0.3366272759646269, -10.182898989382727, 0.4681137241203933, 15.153514582079206, 2.728713841161861 ], "mae": [ 2.5576819810792513, 8.412955154480837, 4.957121442185326, 3.1811888806264643, 10.970541161232125, 3.257312080411063, 17.326169155049232, 3.48708534686619 ], "mse": [ 17.06639238745304, 158.700951864083, 104.33752462889817, 39.382991169326196, 398.5965764219474, 31.956272430686617, 739.7081367973778, 29.4217268509507 ], "var": [ 66.11161690083208, 286.3813839370216, 235.8043671722148, 89.781465069202, 162.35761169312002, 138.98185730543653, 1168.4534300672942, 102.16872176200543 ], "zero": [ 0.004491801560673958, 0.004150047033820846, 0.004241198212610625, 0.004572195051731234, 0.003952876882785039, 0.003939255321672651, 0.004003912389004989, 0.004281594477922887 ] }, "crps": 4.215678981431324, "crpss": -0.10615423569360405, "rps": 0.47318459438975813, "rpss": -0.05206552396414765, "mean_bias_mm": 2.0298260285317724, "mean_mae_mm": 6.7687569002413115, "mean_rmse_mm": 13.780287426931283, "spread_error_ratio": 1.2170036860483608, "zero_fraction": 0.004204110116277779, "correlation": 0.17610230167784938, "pit_histogram": [ 0.14769, 0.02014, 0.02767, 0.0516, 0.07973, 0.09792, 0.10576, 0.13414, 0.16263, 0.17273 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.44589835300755176 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 1.1328462996290716, 2.0667393098175517, 4.976226833724657, 1.3282687270399414, 9.798581007280369, 1.8950330844827221, 11.817800958047181, 1.192930890475207 ], "crps_clim": [ 2.366231987002849, 2.259909659422711, 5.567918347623332, 1.9966771549125995, 8.330258482082852, 1.9477425770778494, 3.4305474768916633, 2.1733161564516763 ], "rps": [ 0.1273376209186904, 0.582715897155594, 0.5630094304607238, 0.3287041221925414, 0.5933975955479626, 0.6970797192173741, 0.7668967437084541, 0.3413328005416511 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5473323710222779, 0.45950888532469003, 0.47310561454117583, 0.451258434482434, 0.43752408372393053, 0.3769753182133201, 0.34410807043894076, 0.45220364528394885 ], "bias": [ 1.418344619318764, 6.349072343407333, -3.123366615533974, 0.9132665619039737, -10.798263687808682, 0.5447038190065207, 23.47717322282245, 3.5494996483193013 ], "mae": [ 2.1492265309096212, 6.567876535170641, 5.879259031345802, 2.0977009350490285, 11.830807492303437, 2.4082315655403437, 23.508527911152026, 3.614256544620599 ], "mse": [ 12.630239952603363, 115.42292484392549, 157.6652710281355, 15.005900325657985, 586.0418783957996, 15.696084350630606, 1231.287127128207, 32.69491436515584 ], "var": [ 53.55853204041651, 283.1667841710648, 326.4167296241114, 75.76091326488358, 158.43746014917622, 116.64723326081138, 1913.948439040614, 112.72340352550741 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 4.2760533888120875, "crpss": -0.2185698818970192, "rps": 0.5000592412178739, "rpss": -0.12943404319960639, "mean_bias_mm": 2.791303738929461, "mean_mae_mm": 7.2569858182614375, "mean_rmse_mm": 16.45617034880122, "spread_error_ratio": 1.184704741334172, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.10007855911896217, "pit_histogram": [ 0.19932, 0.01385, 0.02784, 0.04642, 0.05598, 0.06606, 0.09107, 0.10675, 0.18888, 0.20384 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.5975675992910501 } }, "full": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 5.334031486762605, 5.072177725387631, 14.653637265849483, 6.9001391463427115, 16.098634048557482, 4.793214632146434, 1.9336612755654552, 5.025056516584093, 6.7291754706185, 4.417851669226913, 16.282839758716396, 4.628641471770293, 5.861268468637739, 4.928866823004925, 5.0974705730180645, 8.512677247722301, 5.700639063092586, 2.425559163163655, 1.4743785426500966, 3.407012415424945, 1.721466267645894, 1.8671882495379613, 5.534113238377309, 4.030870115228983, 1.4034348418192613, 3.2337880028404364, 4.240924538466937, 2.0853662959218413, 9.697437279499775, 2.5352278385689457, 9.181927760186722, 1.4319814091233365 ], "crps_clim": [ 2.6897179853589925, 2.867287610747155, 11.613583597576943, 5.886197674812449, 27.77500554826608, 3.3326847383568015, 2.8099124904438204, 2.624493357547262, 7.71221722782229, 3.8123457628295836, 14.271810450341063, 4.481516504313957, 2.329174473258749, 4.367684268620377, 4.603049696222213, 8.657359289497048, 4.649450179185341, 2.4755201422145108, 2.7360868719092664, 3.4495472657845374, 2.254603487223936, 2.505246979400119, 3.1059697413108407, 2.855418618210857, 2.766727211701212, 2.9690284184817233, 4.63923895270541, 2.3781737857801595, 8.084302871907116, 2.606734429626978, 4.181426375823429, 2.68056081509455 ], "rps": [ 0.8157003690676523, 0.838710070697033, 0.8291880288730563, 0.5569463215072499, 0.1629325998877088, 0.6490565757572431, 0.28196121344553954, 0.798626198503476, 0.3559806297552815, 0.5631200526689456, 0.8552424672535245, 0.4214048305042475, 0.7463278656062531, 0.5436659031118812, 0.6000102345635829, 0.508785158616277, 0.6456937494504021, 0.5292139894858199, 0.2250049226795509, 0.4239202459095376, 0.4130677076089506, 0.34120081615790765, 0.42351955157293436, 0.7094507106738062, 0.20608510916856243, 0.679363249852531, 0.5040495819193586, 0.3746901565231142, 0.6793263552800098, 0.5867136136943979, 0.6492240430990134, 0.2469322109571392 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.49041507783712296, 0.5369376306368444, 0.5100667474154729, 0.4521868075526217, 0.5217072761921506, 0.4133935720112422, 0.47234840051899624, 0.43488625630302596, 0.5255484732176574, 0.43690918492602165, 0.5252437168376151, 0.45828462824902266, 0.38486514853319226, 0.4081996460632345, 0.40282801997469403, 0.5125391329245191, 0.44742012622339855, 0.39216921729503385, 0.5031366769351334, 0.41349098916290067, 0.4059993484819169, 0.41024969837800246, 0.3849070120945385, 0.44180910334017454, 0.4984255550790732, 0.4983306583397526, 0.40315870128184617, 0.42477518647713974, 0.4628459104807814, 0.3911057460601312, 0.4012825990880415, 0.4936916796322727 ], "bias": [ 10.596433859408524, 10.88775702081095, -16.370584584483208, -6.771305785491553, -10.776460637472235, -2.61961690581821, -0.8008711044274953, 9.137680406520916, -5.993865111797087, 1.5307153339053536, -17.819228355914124, 1.1180497094662614, 10.725861558718512, -1.6246010827522719, -5.087054863834649, -7.0494615776207, 0.6366153245124614, 3.285264911708304, 1.3244091971410337, 0.9729469762712705, 2.6625544471868468, 3.418692026137495, 10.00638248682554, 9.18882407043137, 1.5670138781257523, 8.176719267128007, -2.9176323477503523, 0.098520602647566, -10.678858802907945, 0.25311868922919767, 14.956092016496875, 2.5068049116449727 ], "mae": [ 10.831315859129848, 10.977118465369074, 16.73406347313386, 8.280616825498138, 19.39351933727336, 5.862310472838539, 2.22076797832116, 9.868500600121095, 7.658943280089197, 6.279215671839954, 18.84584315642342, 6.449576665626136, 11.16750906205635, 7.057249316463939, 6.242140732291122, 8.770600277996774, 8.729611414472087, 4.415036528474554, 2.581700775676651, 4.606605020261094, 3.352758442645829, 4.049134516814868, 11.10866974915952, 9.545478325179834, 2.348158396014604, 8.300062325552895, 4.957135051054666, 2.9095855461323623, 11.261209863012832, 3.1352530870531234, 16.9828842363069, 3.2001934952556588 ], "mse": [ 275.8729145841574, 323.83098556338774, 1017.9080025525777, 239.63906545967237, 944.7132759947864, 89.09570257848847, 23.827748541050656, 214.59609121363684, 177.28048619749418, 120.89651362456183, 905.1254681069616, 121.79821521801755, 324.3183365461932, 170.64831846125742, 145.81949466227985, 251.49917803845892, 232.10101264661125, 42.968550733684914, 20.78228946050597, 54.88009589272883, 27.261173149809718, 46.64283605475314, 388.49353671047726, 177.3237535644116, 14.699249967901194, 155.0265540331853, 110.40656025791498, 35.69077031319886, 425.4237722471816, 29.558642281909638, 727.1332844199654, 25.48189501329156 ], "var": [ 287.97807864608745, 384.4235301576415, 136.00642160980604, 90.78648783348146, 832.9396242060385, 130.5813436276588, 37.742480969302555, 399.0903355108749, 311.0800140797755, 260.1609104542697, 192.60440989476638, 306.8730366062369, 370.6832895782502, 328.52248113833167, 95.37509857514543, 499.64102711682034, 317.79469519827575, 138.08468621854118, 93.01989586145932, 221.79160806839673, 125.53657442580152, 126.53960834109165, 544.1989905242707, 372.3985183710268, 60.496998769432395, 271.4625986083313, 216.13834464658476, 82.68373577045764, 149.3931279206289, 130.91465498101144, 1169.2003204127004, 93.34445723676332 ], "zero": [ 0.0035898270648527623, 0.003240283697682219, 0.0027085240919190057, 0.0018776053981759357, 0.002252292705221873, 0.002091510468029881, 0.002575630819692867, 0.003804060973977669, 0.0035884260460612005, 0.0026539149579666303, 0.0034291328971276036, 0.002521473288205453, 0.0019837500727302396, 0.003912743849665254, 0.0037797734655714106, 0.0026826216809063266, 0.0032181201992030747, 0.0028697714256070645, 0.004288298094384042, 0.003997270358356043, 0.004208013258012204, 0.003992066731632684, 0.004878922982456726, 0.002548174151610239, 0.003901060805099066, 0.0037041882894650684, 0.0036635850293818407, 0.004033964585540777, 0.003980471325661871, 0.0036778665475607495, 0.003926290258256666, 0.00373023643938632 ] }, "crps": 5.507520581295616, "crpss": -0.07351178113037138, "rps": 0.5364098291828747, "rpss": -0.18714482681967137, "mean_bias_mm": 0.45440361043898037, "mean_mae_mm": 8.066336498360608, "mean_rmse_mm": 15.673169524391948, "spread_error_ratio": 1.056703842835068, "zero_fraction": 0.003353433498731274, "correlation": 0.12433192968248433, "pit_histogram": [ 0.20921, 0.02158, 0.02835, 0.04809, 0.06631, 0.08191, 0.0936, 0.11532, 0.14729, 0.18833 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.5203081470787265 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 3.2063356732548374, 3.738217089998504, 7.967095236957272, 1.9568294885519062, 17.10656221018073, 2.268256504320905, 1.9221707977924554, 4.363252766567019, 5.733294290733129, 3.3774044826799834, 19.34971900064182, 3.794486003141473, 3.1259750129736776, 4.11456542517676, 2.7096858396355223, 6.9791717108247004, 6.85450743947367, 1.9317722424467865, 1.019332153088392, 3.6248245133147563, 1.3176659684918417, 1.4828586993686488, 6.1213805889587185, 2.9830058744968055, 1.1336492540712717, 2.00581991224305, 5.181300528981214, 1.3431355950185155, 10.325265098967954, 1.9682678337208968, 12.037861539512445, 1.1350076939390996 ], "crps_clim": [ 2.1962156929740804, 2.1788012116298163, 5.48867715919352, 1.7773343754893767, 34.32641868083757, 1.8627034830071907, 1.9715211508068933, 2.4850922338242754, 5.825734906672177, 2.4213405279615716, 15.788972303238339, 4.131178922483057, 1.7605249281308137, 3.8097412938741515, 2.031828268076108, 7.918858186445213, 6.382316217886629, 2.0199351210734884, 2.268887809680827, 3.672694877557107, 1.9649460420847091, 2.2337494697367615, 2.0965498141099683, 1.8861829698011934, 2.2991833116108906, 2.179019211557004, 5.967272104997054, 1.9197227040545963, 8.917885769487894, 1.949950438310964, 3.6326875965041756, 2.091802235366322 ], "rps": [ 0.4536002668076198, 0.7523398853458836, 0.8750682650669428, 0.3469872959568248, 0.00978877381048206, 0.37759602381533247, 0.40783249999624893, 0.8066379049463441, 0.2844723600503286, 0.5401746266617089, 1.2630302918320702, 0.3529337808733672, 0.5466099907989679, 0.48202680860529906, 0.6974963979701835, 0.454813798873337, 0.5391514220024557, 0.6500869444569995, 0.12592737599977585, 0.45345231249377577, 0.4709727528449487, 0.31719206937572103, 0.4816481799961872, 0.6365109407149571, 0.12448472285056084, 0.6070263905169295, 0.5994013634108313, 0.32529645759582954, 0.6026379644927854, 0.795544820512918, 0.7496480886048641, 0.327196710468638 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5381511480265782, 0.5320773657724542, 0.49130303512889106, 0.38498928938989757, 0.5629552549427681, 0.38290325595556074, 0.3789331388282408, 0.4247100795822977, 0.5050165255638045, 0.3889502709540875, 0.5619307137731465, 0.5113363017784888, 0.34719627842747985, 0.37617173880982513, 0.3204093918893131, 0.5500282293506343, 0.49836540383658773, 0.43075767900875145, 0.5392014406556627, 0.46954411522421585, 0.5074149366392898, 0.43384618252591467, 0.40967831680734257, 0.35129371669777265, 0.556013264324054, 0.4676500824441632, 0.4913710435949474, 0.4477522470171603, 0.4328472498436856, 0.3755117997097963, 0.35728991623881007, 0.43983412768140073 ], "bias": [ 6.102677826335214, 8.853864841131967, -8.4700027687398, -0.9082753999802056, -16.78882965616608, 2.1726009102655937, -1.5080729340225991, 4.243148087004897, -4.281648380160125, 3.5633813343195313, -21.640341424930174, -1.296571686315058, 6.255695882469674, 2.188843165505728, -2.7801267477231697, -3.883461829637664, -5.71032150697993, 3.5627791161412867, 1.514446880006124, 0.3981734621610523, 3.511392021455027, 2.9037560744329336, 14.0404561542897, 7.101424201059813, 1.1720827460051744, 6.04856666944802, -3.8941365891064894, 0.6574590133950172, -11.445007865381202, 0.20007597304178618, 23.490536443603403, 3.2467273252406486 ], "mae": [ 6.683642874339976, 9.01850294598925, 8.819931462039753, 2.1024638728847718, 19.509400890666274, 3.486020764348729, 1.9887673423039467, 6.017975982808033, 6.612203895472326, 5.317980667168023, 21.640368098335653, 4.498856062044917, 6.991214957241936, 7.793362396832548, 3.113295400549518, 5.295067938618792, 8.82957683176369, 3.8309567966583993, 2.127136592113902, 4.073195455570903, 3.7016093285490084, 3.751578710138843, 14.270003818330384, 7.778731344085573, 2.022466876525505, 6.27847801442611, 5.98473295395953, 1.9393196827363892, 12.221173773534872, 2.4038964550568767, 23.490536443603403, 3.3188063026451085 ], "mse": [ 164.63841272189129, 276.57929760958956, 481.78324837397906, 16.868794873489257, 1014.1394822267756, 41.55535896308031, 10.358402941351427, 93.70067084610058, 194.84029914671254, 116.32641225092486, 1054.0718408273326, 81.24605239708237, 202.14302383632307, 215.34586085189918, 50.980093132932716, 111.78354658003268, 367.3656083865821, 32.44798742457284, 15.029514679768738, 44.63492147912801, 35.441634996719465, 46.88305084028994, 617.4566102327989, 128.29544039314067, 11.195546233816247, 110.08654938105369, 168.44943133682068, 13.266850150532221, 627.2291443548628, 15.067159838505665, 1249.0707069973912, 29.140712931021707 ], "var": [ 171.29518061107527, 421.4447406729575, 120.69795565488882, 66.64574130108477, 1000.8772414608122, 172.01711547238642, 26.408221373175994, 314.17876730375383, 301.6010653108613, 310.1105661655299, 134.59932021897288, 244.08049809946084, 308.70092619933155, 424.6989038432405, 39.852616754125066, 828.9218831963693, 217.2051055397696, 111.88917185101637, 88.49610596954432, 265.39477140932377, 141.61977738706233, 147.174413629138, 830.2965060863771, 465.4983988371873, 46.83938317009255, 264.26943931676345, 298.1428494902953, 67.71064820483679, 138.3105361941075, 104.52423528897235, 1947.5016423762772, 99.34825469042167 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 4.755583639672649, "crpss": -0.032015598520914956, "rps": 0.5142996089921599, "rpss": -0.13771823303871988, "mean_bias_mm": 0.5819153543178155, "mean_mae_mm": 7.028476716604467, "mean_rmse_mm": 15.448929642572029, "spread_error_ratio": 1.1511301374609852, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.20714180546251842, "pit_histogram": [ 0.21042, 0.01361, 0.02302, 0.03308, 0.05449, 0.05829, 0.07327, 0.1079, 0.16801, 0.25792 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.6884950519134361 } }, "distribution_full": { "ethiopia": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 1.02902944029528, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.03583054432675963 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 1.335847488459414, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.4380153684703193 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.6402661221521179, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.5684514961953387 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9926945452220617, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.10589556560730347 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.1749596261035438, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.2312597100278243 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": -0.006147217934541392 } }, "ondj_domain": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0435434658052618, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.04744009535903558 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 1.5733866045348874, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.703559852797737 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.43890975593060677, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.8490701105038757 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9026163585092338, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.1393680130281502 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.3967155046131077, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.3731059406216183 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": 0.0 } } } }, "qdm": { "training": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 5.48416855331106, 5.029060578138964, 14.173000012862964, 6.091458316720518, 16.5452133949476, 4.410326826334141, 1.312871137984322, 4.4148173726205275, 6.887162988462388, 4.214858426151443, 15.23728810514609, 4.4118702800624385, 5.119825376528355, 4.963204269450393, 4.829203447140863, 8.500334465409596, 5.730479277529705, 2.237048127077449, 1.1629909550122297, 3.403055279463415, 1.7138433678798508, 2.0084849860716494, 5.559731840943501, 3.3037634522323436 ], "crps_clim": [ 3.147316707451114, 3.345505329459557, 10.984966213801052, 5.565431468435425, 27.0718763908127, 3.331872595873229, 3.2339333066026654, 2.898578484108726, 7.306127788484703, 3.578837768945852, 13.61369806885984, 4.185041134572365, 2.552105347257009, 4.271290701634523, 4.644138020744405, 8.101898044577364, 4.707631815249459, 2.7497107572454813, 3.224323436142348, 3.3810268425956997, 2.5984657102999638, 2.914534006884459, 3.0779701844454106, 3.298398263301115 ], "rps": [ 0.6694462222278592, 0.6114040216470804, 0.8067466899461492, 0.46124262447347947, 0.31674518738627433, 0.5989521449707447, 0.2524101827846373, 0.5353633741038203, 0.49597419895093575, 0.4278427431943083, 0.7083734125875127, 0.437757783114135, 0.5068636575147634, 0.5202058885616347, 0.5180943292363718, 0.5516904724367049, 0.5335489809336869, 0.4025464916482657, 0.23246130996587186, 0.4215103097481219, 0.33542016774010025, 0.38606758666451346, 0.42783361308502893, 0.47882239389741893 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.49730130537920497, 0.5299108646278966, 0.4968209717644765, 0.45140321931037847, 0.5120439289026995, 0.41031169775019555, 0.4779713217459693, 0.4530884207483443, 0.5043277856041234, 0.41692670592375, 0.5103230613419248, 0.4397744822519408, 0.3965890908147674, 0.3999865051869261, 0.4105095348843729, 0.49534705826094655, 0.4525412470698913, 0.40263417109494526, 0.4947135592926832, 0.4107579460380184, 0.4281083679843292, 0.43735476661089284, 0.37946484897479493, 0.465353650018479 ], "bias": [ 11.637984235441344, 11.88353502949845, -15.451401353847979, -5.679173613615113, -14.349208552379876, -1.3896333034339337, 0.5223420454178069, 9.494793961922815, -5.491395171875237, 2.5860983832162585, -16.907470732012065, 1.3565993696939926, 10.873185655907154, -1.0041261436655442, -4.001244884910224, -6.681858239023281, 1.5784258319052498, 3.9641221891337732, 2.8152389296597797, 1.9460170892164976, 3.728292501266549, 4.999939594774198, 10.860106541907822, 9.604853809529944 ], "mae": [ 11.642066947417655, 11.889143009814575, 16.092047100717153, 7.616239794253955, 19.950357844652327, 5.672524716382696, 2.0774332372602013, 10.050634381504398, 7.479529439672622, 6.1022178475700475, 17.675304858623907, 5.807193581050404, 10.957500780306557, 7.155528369448044, 6.006154536667108, 8.284902618392048, 9.113679171377536, 4.985761162011217, 3.419724584749468, 4.7138915639408685, 4.14759632020376, 5.0467841415223225, 11.497102533248167, 9.893996546114726 ], "mse": [ 323.59831533413495, 371.3463119616772, 982.2575483014986, 218.1458169937986, 1031.9943830588159, 85.89137350575909, 21.78549124405167, 235.93123152689836, 169.70469944290747, 124.04039582730626, 828.3326167931205, 102.49482525054299, 324.1596667310959, 174.65256816924773, 146.16297929521483, 232.60423837525423, 247.09761565844, 55.2647568963943, 33.38116124676531, 57.78814023773301, 39.90742259062325, 65.99936945033663, 412.74009993979905, 201.37544208504858 ], "var": [ 345.3417883721196, 581.1454716804217, 212.15488180572564, 117.17260860051124, 1152.4179688298786, 145.14089901817331, 49.501689647995626, 526.5082225485276, 509.94489149743947, 318.4549329582004, 237.51253845968324, 399.4170955436548, 506.11582451996475, 488.3208007688604, 110.20360444362908, 668.9878713788441, 428.7271671692845, 195.06347215121386, 189.33120282758384, 308.7135804888006, 162.5417642092054, 164.82906206261515, 733.9829581526094, 724.6212414505534 ], "zero": [ 0.002976670230178554, 0.002926929965615282, 0.00495921017202562, 0.005631487242404876, 0.005584081267915483, 0.0044528069529981215, 0.00423125399489316, 0.0029996079861871637, 0.00257366577752446, 0.007381378159352318, 0.0049633715165569, 0.004993397276120545, 0.006737105967510607, 0.0033213469162967652, 0.003910608886450041, 0.007945378885232907, 0.0031069107550165337, 0.006005828746978085, 0.00032278608255251456, 0.0017149559668404126, 0.0022497845579506756, 0.0012353205254906398, 0.002038217636705361, 0.004100969076922383 ] }, "crps": 5.697669201561742, "crpss": -0.022120488574329356, "rps": 0.4848884911174758, "rpss": -0.0702400095593263, "mean_bias_mm": 0.704000965572016, "mean_mae_mm": 8.636554795287573, "mean_rmse_mm": 16.440114139299215, "spread_error_ratio": 1.1958410793221996, "zero_fraction": 0.0040151281060716425, "correlation": 0.04909304600039074, "pit_histogram": [ 0.12106, 0.07973, 0.07318, 0.0881, 0.09565, 0.10664, 0.10606, 0.10272, 0.11331, 0.11355 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.12669861611817276 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 3.292750970372936, 3.308746548225683, 7.257224409273512, 1.2453471068531445, 19.351054196148212, 2.244149345802792, 0.8550973259662987, 2.9967725211841323, 6.155977508851263, 3.590880510606311, 17.70491108620782, 3.653272804266026, 3.076934405411748, 4.119747979128901, 1.953768968430282, 7.230207588136192, 6.603784994456917, 1.3690995256587468, 0.6713906364907396, 3.393868249948754, 1.2656277460256322, 1.247118644298285, 5.417497220699367, 1.7164820861563765 ], "crps_clim": [ 2.4548094454165224, 2.4172161936748946, 5.333194544027777, 1.8549628212328, 34.12225179677904, 1.8644358450759109, 2.122993377234286, 2.4401382645813325, 5.73783658336709, 2.3217318677782153, 15.529706680297545, 3.9621897190875477, 1.8639890286330005, 3.876280862498442, 2.06925731997254, 7.631461938517677, 6.263162085572975, 2.1837307589862482, 2.5462616594235836, 3.4498462746206284, 2.1833797898673692, 2.4890121894953605, 2.173582577005678, 2.0020724813943143 ], "rps": [ 0.568066808729, 0.5039807053464541, 0.6862349499484504, 0.3400656262118316, 0.4241825970581587, 0.3888416635784619, 0.3095266608310388, 0.4188407067400671, 0.6161723778460828, 0.3912412975341909, 0.8206814616071231, 0.46457251590136617, 0.4188126318826598, 0.4160973094317273, 0.4157530451123159, 0.5401971898708, 0.4595772085071267, 0.3860849529405891, 0.18354313459671392, 0.5019521448621307, 0.32662935994442477, 0.337662979261325, 0.4790431645393199, 0.37773277545506473 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5271012391842729, 0.5237026472803199, 0.4726651024187634, 0.4183814425674277, 0.5463137996219282, 0.3948310596898503, 0.4065592098294793, 0.42831468140896223, 0.49352864345894915, 0.3706979572196848, 0.5445864342119232, 0.4920445653961977, 0.3565574386141641, 0.3975457684832652, 0.35150037945920126, 0.5287991707856597, 0.48528999945591406, 0.42598320924629246, 0.518005444784471, 0.4652291028680146, 0.5021412621347012, 0.4343952625071855, 0.40487741585469383, 0.3925124516437722 ], "bias": [ 7.364867083240922, 9.807884149673555, -7.074415673972092, 0.7562402929310771, -23.416840654705926, 3.5336135960595856, 0.2404444714175246, 4.169673840721108, -3.9140069003265974, 4.804690360398412, -19.946630274087557, -0.7150727281102187, 7.3869239310000205, 2.6575073340575424, -1.2216048851290138, -3.320547589069197, -4.996842113085108, 4.123992199502229, 3.131124744873289, 0.7769650065077542, 4.669406664517076, 4.492900000298666, 14.175069379606104, 7.482675089352887 ], "mae": [ 7.373709084615161, 9.811586535058995, 7.941375999828552, 2.093562157924346, 23.651859095855244, 3.956357395079349, 1.2236111680071708, 5.5426822878289705, 6.495363153523949, 5.483805921938486, 19.951731083500757, 3.9456695050216477, 7.44059305797772, 8.308676997704156, 2.5216997481828867, 4.807662096278915, 8.792728761547622, 4.2436097648871876, 3.1364195538109474, 3.559103380638068, 4.692580336389346, 4.511815163718592, 14.257441966181124, 8.068443362955168 ], "mse": [ 186.9462312188911, 304.62527834436077, 455.13026948639987, 17.179776431623807, 1369.4047679268526, 52.53815443137012, 5.308667581000665, 91.02733305475422, 189.8294590302908, 139.02441231427133, 940.5645920040232, 65.37537392055403, 225.24863400517904, 238.3474034759787, 44.3677304626353, 98.19920583741347, 356.25857590669756, 42.13375853160364, 28.336894861982096, 39.47044874767247, 53.802562500292986, 63.6037595505229, 621.2661355759317, 149.26800982081272 ], "var": [ 190.81918108249752, 738.828612194194, 190.94530456289317, 115.02177783235466, 1351.46148552791, 202.2171457912713, 37.690754861381876, 434.989391622498, 674.9497100161221, 426.0341838797506, 157.01971069803577, 329.64699079544283, 437.82353401916544, 621.8055688005314, 42.00281983189431, 1088.0644553258887, 266.8180199430748, 207.18349406803003, 195.6147357907105, 387.66126199731275, 189.17388479153027, 226.84896851792055, 1210.7354139753766, 1089.488619965966 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 4.571738015775003, "crpss": 0.07714291705858145, "rps": 0.44897888615568426, "rpss": 0.00974771856589196, "mean_bias_mm": 0.6236673885696686, "mean_mae_mm": 7.158836982435598, "mean_rmse_mm": 15.515123582896349, "spread_error_ratio": 1.3680725506511224, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.16560059599407728, "pit_histogram": [ 0.1532, 0.05914, 0.05454, 0.0658, 0.09311, 0.12077, 0.12094, 0.1172, 0.11911, 0.09619 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.2624502687195277 } }, "operational": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 1.196674380902899, 2.8739488533646464, 3.920280465820722, 1.743729661705136, 9.188961731652505, 2.3271532906424017, 7.56844238514768, 1.3795734160650652 ], "crps_clim": [ 3.000358402837215, 3.2118104787747215, 4.432332626338175, 2.616293468105364, 7.502465706182092, 2.7696475536717284, 4.029967303787228, 2.9260298617309384 ], "rps": [ 0.2663131513260912, 0.4705118137838059, 0.4208379412541714, 0.3341991506229751, 0.650131784777509, 0.43731983345633746, 0.4311568056196667, 0.287943217356213 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5137613090872692, 0.49705239615939123, 0.40610073525670304, 0.44669601338418186, 0.4481977724282379, 0.39955792469123536, 0.39062127201913327, 0.49615040098932883 ], "bias": [ 2.8571443459971912, 8.526159252329917, -1.8510168766188333, 1.3875144739498737, -9.639649032470174, 1.1019078267406948, 12.062461924013348, 3.4896706446013983 ], "mae": [ 3.034427719393491, 8.546424945268866, 4.81292038564853, 3.351935956843745, 10.72265250768012, 3.2700383187511615, 14.092533844591227, 3.822827872711231 ], "mse": [ 23.839398651175948, 164.61041891644052, 102.47774283072184, 40.71197246383797, 381.500919594145, 34.42958700860389, 491.2348461327363, 35.588318754973265 ], "var": [ 75.93450266535963, 406.51169745336165, 237.8083043187908, 111.71826820438432, 196.38159104644058, 179.7781581880075, 1256.3127277511476, 120.90220524079905 ], "zero": [ 0.0024690248206844447, 0.0024846610115533342, 0.0025234802168030007, 0.0023378645993557706, 0.002300633816505254, 0.002719460804225346, 0.003544917394704255, 0.003115911638719128 ] }, "crps": 3.774845523162632, "crpss": 0.009516288377897086, "rps": 0.4123017122745962, "rpss": 0.08329979019097777, "mean_bias_mm": 2.241774069817927, "mean_mae_mm": 6.456720193861046, "mean_rmse_mm": 12.621376729346103, "spread_error_ratio": 1.4243205341257406, "zero_fraction": 0.0026869942878188164, "correlation": 0.18459462256902312, "pit_histogram": [ 0.13869, 0.06512, 0.07089, 0.08759, 0.10335, 0.11315, 0.10022, 0.1001, 0.11346, 0.10742 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.1527968504404601 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 0.8667762775563447, 1.7934885360366697, 4.8983026747898295, 0.9472579674947564, 9.571576936409215, 1.409478948658386, 7.629075218477112, 1.2560876429241097 ], "crps_clim": [ 2.366231987002849, 2.259909659422711, 5.567918347623332, 1.9966771549125995, 8.330258482082852, 1.9477425770778494, 3.4305474768916633, 2.1733161564516763 ], "rps": [ 0.28956564357844555, 0.40125840799319323, 0.4674109183392942, 0.29866775620173924, 0.5152974143362046, 0.4431823127296497, 0.31399853265394445, 0.3892946622591843 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5473323710222779, 0.45950888532469003, 0.47310561454117583, 0.451258434482434, 0.43752408372393053, 0.3769753182133201, 0.34410807043894076, 0.45220364528394885 ], "bias": [ 2.6873963231761984, 6.701760878645158, -3.114825905708293, 2.04915625428637, -10.24378209542484, 1.4950347198583052, 16.161300297179693, 4.07636213159963 ], "mae": [ 2.7078162493000058, 6.706655133172039, 5.663685833831433, 2.5187376700678343, 11.67171561075078, 2.324120026002408, 16.217100232963627, 4.09505441575605 ], "mse": [ 19.923332132042702, 122.93843904222481, 158.02316872875394, 19.000042916872573, 562.8022779001128, 18.58127376214054, 653.2194789896267, 40.721602204387544 ], "var": [ 60.69598013022411, 373.7414149511364, 342.69696260208195, 85.4405580674395, 185.89993910706846, 129.32560083015608, 2109.2594958527206, 117.9723058527635 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 3.546505525293303, "crpss": -0.010666712069366868, "rps": 0.38983445601145694, "rpss": 0.11951970978633475, "mean_bias_mm": 2.4765503254515275, "mean_mae_mm": 6.488110646480522, "mean_rmse_mm": 14.120949045992631, "spread_error_ratio": 1.4610051131203168, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.13194863266573134, "pit_histogram": [ 0.20459, 0.05568, 0.06358, 0.07862, 0.09976, 0.11699, 0.10425, 0.07376, 0.11138, 0.0914 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.27442305284346663 } }, "full": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 5.04014026912824, 4.635390057118055, 14.299612298148036, 6.200840949767142, 17.414434391340617, 4.4103987362011114, 1.2830834712517054, 4.190884348551748, 6.824829897409, 4.3287010859525905, 15.545004474469224, 4.542508593854401, 4.856143975286538, 4.877357154670821, 4.692368007711911, 8.70598575618747, 5.380666386525422, 2.0230108684811343, 1.031287705351912, 3.327156698296662, 1.5594645259629853, 1.8543654202683073, 5.202801411953002, 3.1005973154124438, 1.10644674279323, 2.83607294943922, 3.970292287022071, 1.6328735927152855, 9.564311768675864, 2.2860794734984182, 7.171970810335461, 1.2718379890300233 ], "crps_clim": [ 2.6897179853589925, 2.867287610747155, 11.613583597576943, 5.886197674812449, 27.77500554826608, 3.3326847383568015, 2.8099124904438204, 2.624493357547262, 7.71221722782229, 3.8123457628295836, 14.271810450341063, 4.481516504313957, 2.329174473258749, 4.367684268620377, 4.603049696222213, 8.657359289497048, 4.649450179185341, 2.4755201422145108, 2.7360868719092664, 3.4495472657845374, 2.254603487223936, 2.505246979400119, 3.1059697413108407, 2.855418618210857, 2.766727211701212, 2.9690284184817233, 4.63923895270541, 2.3781737857801595, 8.084302871907116, 2.606734429626978, 4.181426375823429, 2.68056081509455 ], "rps": [ 0.6699619133149534, 0.6470641412915278, 0.7750781158401374, 0.44000833873003986, 0.3080661695541205, 0.5941718506870108, 0.2688301284096934, 0.543442521676899, 0.4662992271603281, 0.4285544220326025, 0.7043850211550305, 0.4331114352481916, 0.4899392419003842, 0.5092889790495869, 0.513476626709451, 0.5491848567530596, 0.49622564229329247, 0.3939088309806432, 0.28143095788595734, 0.4038141903479696, 0.3469981447022919, 0.37578983718808273, 0.41815896092610505, 0.478457431455018, 0.2873646016584022, 0.49205687840389034, 0.40979494754454776, 0.3346338329376745, 0.6603519901472714, 0.4752729070736672, 0.4142635382752824, 0.29408107761529806 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.49041507783712296, 0.5369376306368444, 0.5100667474154729, 0.4521868075526217, 0.5217072761921506, 0.4133935720112422, 0.47234840051899624, 0.43488625630302596, 0.5255484732176574, 0.43690918492602165, 0.5252437168376151, 0.45828462824902266, 0.38486514853319226, 0.4081996460632345, 0.40282801997469403, 0.5125391329245191, 0.44742012622339855, 0.39216921729503385, 0.5031366769351334, 0.41349098916290067, 0.4059993484819169, 0.41024969837800246, 0.3849070120945385, 0.44180910334017454, 0.4984255550790732, 0.4983306583397526, 0.40315870128184617, 0.42477518647713974, 0.4628459104807814, 0.3911057460601312, 0.4012825990880415, 0.4936916796322727 ], "bias": [ 10.945329761686589, 11.083044022203755, -15.672342278529985, -5.886243011456944, -15.332262664202872, -1.6797574568655793, 0.4035317568151575, 8.692373123644654, -6.082892063771311, 2.0509264804757543, -17.00207356185592, 0.7354346078338664, 10.203955387837457, -1.5187486448925045, -4.167987164276374, -7.191996084558938, 0.8285828090447419, 3.4739354418645765, 2.5513171552427045, 1.3778734019666439, 3.3772609856681357, 4.610273120038335, 9.680687858154423, 8.921917544174324, 2.645347065978147, 8.339234475937811, -2.4444118596307964, 1.1129161657144033, -10.222207367577676, 0.7950279603543555, 11.311327079815504, 3.2070386127030717 ], "mae": [ 10.94911695115517, 11.086612195784062, 16.21039268528892, 7.675006029682445, 20.679534570798488, 5.51517297805386, 2.007722562382127, 9.29599195625742, 7.4739444240304245, 6.063884955468464, 17.939672206566776, 5.8874707681090666, 10.353925632554331, 6.753277581384167, 5.845414285150846, 8.73519987317022, 8.374528455236549, 4.402599138129901, 3.060273671520053, 4.485446600437679, 3.7638321939347095, 4.653870593031644, 10.497367843861179, 9.22114182932042, 2.801261580275994, 8.353975522463394, 4.801652554733126, 3.03767039475615, 10.997821532058955, 3.1009325128890026, 13.238377088294387, 3.4887883735750043 ], "mse": [ 287.0064521934287, 327.5928827358637, 986.4989454818938, 220.57141655557697, 1099.2777290640834, 83.7834232424538, 20.890937784692323, 202.6900212379432, 173.4418516590041, 124.42528059767744, 846.9996876391408, 108.33330906255594, 303.40893795275275, 165.57480484993388, 141.21550694481425, 252.34132657535798, 222.6317965614066, 42.79911478179204, 27.76570606525133, 52.96373835139498, 33.93466585554428, 57.7831110880796, 357.998474210886, 179.16016164308144, 20.437870300238675, 158.45050469877148, 108.47878593065523, 36.23128964911362, 408.81036994915405, 31.658853162619653, 435.9590899384757, 30.32193975493121 ], "var": [ 323.93322137855694, 513.3699575402443, 190.74746763678777, 109.06530210905386, 1154.441271625448, 134.87501941066105, 46.482376583533274, 467.6985380361049, 442.0045671988533, 301.52557526505154, 228.66006524057687, 358.1659006984668, 475.6832901747461, 438.9682312994237, 102.78364368433708, 597.1896092682733, 377.3586972727998, 164.81732121837427, 170.60525792009977, 276.83350164046533, 147.01089249148654, 144.56978614281132, 629.6693650467054, 627.6534302409028, 66.79741158852029, 385.60611886360135, 216.72360303488705, 98.17646583465799, 173.9274161667859, 161.44364231323976, 1277.5670964544097, 105.24838295835617 ], "zero": [ 0.002976670230178554, 0.0020752243654577184, 0.004422452207835665, 0.005577669394379565, 0.005584081267915483, 0.003993811963264062, 0.00423125399489316, 0.002413110144324878, 0.0013979353365565416, 0.0057501468881716, 0.004533482286321568, 0.004886030222202168, 0.006899320361552817, 0.0028393024597476524, 0.004235037674534461, 0.005955238300236778, 0.0024126281239023523, 0.004586211437457046, 0.00032278608255251456, 0.0017149559668404126, 0.001074054116982757, 0.0015597493135750587, 0.002038217636705361, 0.004020242304884417, 0.0011735874991655037, 0.0024846610115533342, 0.0025234802168030007, 0.0019032339437869605, 0.002300633816505254, 0.003037528243523796, 0.003544917394704255, 0.0031027308757716945 ] }, "crps": 5.161466231650314, "crpss": -0.006059755164769198, "rps": 0.46573333621713786, "rpss": -0.03072854129066993, "mean_bias_mm": 0.5983253956104846, "mean_mae_mm": 7.835996235636092, "mean_rmse_mm": 15.35968544754271, "spread_error_ratio": 1.202118140921732, "zero_fraction": 0.0032990745338214496, "correlation": 0.08910171887665788, "pit_histogram": [ 0.11868, 0.07427, 0.06841, 0.08462, 0.09989, 0.11184, 0.10929, 0.10555, 0.11565, 0.11178 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.14560658456672104 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 2.9953543586828872, 3.026521887162236, 7.344574055545957, 1.2328524288248504, 20.30523033331678, 2.183416018637808, 0.8782978265549288, 2.958142777147047, 6.1619470843253685, 3.4843423818270365, 17.83646423340959, 3.7107703213751875, 2.8899649596435526, 3.9420148061546647, 1.9499033541428472, 7.297934675250328, 6.577840361054177, 1.2362246359584599, 0.5811998257876068, 3.4809092798275114, 1.1339153879750212, 1.1762675657914046, 5.0343900961017685, 1.6155275634220667, 0.7940026976817516, 1.7326125364682552, 5.090203528438815, 0.8683735737693293, 10.096008333863606, 1.3994709548019102, 7.30096904230508, 1.166092716649516 ], "crps_clim": [ 2.1962156929740804, 2.1788012116298163, 5.48867715919352, 1.7773343754893767, 34.32641868083757, 1.8627034830071907, 1.9715211508068933, 2.4850922338242754, 5.825734906672177, 2.4213405279615716, 15.788972303238339, 4.131178922483057, 1.7605249281308137, 3.8097412938741515, 2.031828268076108, 7.918858186445213, 6.382316217886629, 2.0199351210734884, 2.268887809680827, 3.672694877557107, 1.9649460420847091, 2.2337494697367615, 2.0965498141099683, 1.8861829698011934, 2.2991833116108906, 2.179019211557004, 5.967272104997054, 1.9197227040545963, 8.917885769487894, 1.949950438310964, 3.6326875965041756, 2.091802235366322 ], "rps": [ 0.5761950440658327, 0.5065270880869304, 0.7060616054254215, 0.3201741473437128, 0.4308723646987417, 0.3726804914019927, 0.32994981073451024, 0.4091305387545608, 0.6079390342047714, 0.39370249491033993, 0.8385545442053317, 0.4646873879920613, 0.41620121952091577, 0.3914734748713939, 0.40249076303999193, 0.532466636817213, 0.4518539908074298, 0.40406883192126664, 0.28600872806267275, 0.4987488743285626, 0.3492823529106137, 0.3489232447658252, 0.46800673684286564, 0.35616365630819213, 0.2862404138595916, 0.40927025761891217, 0.476720387281404, 0.2921643085070589, 0.5094246479094018, 0.5069019861957167, 0.32330461869270727, 0.3897944897994742 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5381511480265782, 0.5320773657724542, 0.49130303512889106, 0.38498928938989757, 0.5629552549427681, 0.38290325595556074, 0.3789331388282408, 0.4247100795822977, 0.5050165255638045, 0.3889502709540875, 0.5619307137731465, 0.5113363017784888, 0.34719627842747985, 0.37617173880982513, 0.3204093918893131, 0.5500282293506343, 0.49836540383658773, 0.43075767900875145, 0.5392014406556627, 0.46954411522421585, 0.5074149366392898, 0.43384618252591467, 0.40967831680734257, 0.35129371669777265, 0.556013264324054, 0.4676500824441632, 0.4913710435949474, 0.4477522470171603, 0.4328472498436856, 0.3755117997097963, 0.35728991623881007, 0.43983412768140073 ], "bias": [ 6.842089836725615, 9.017649834796742, -7.421694444249051, 0.44412267116255794, -24.20871116003278, 3.0260978028298195, 0.0008038803362561148, 3.4607025790633124, -4.55385939645498, 4.124756913356389, -20.061439104657197, -1.404472491516442, 6.709755143453394, 1.9450450594903907, -1.5175861643659747, -4.049322081894651, -5.586726691408306, 3.526737800470785, 2.759472359039512, 0.16871419620423908, 4.206295069177933, 4.075474535443282, 12.778576384661699, 6.527847695496699, 2.416308657132165, 6.349790766941507, -3.8803381293614616, 1.7075116285610643, -10.94469109463916, 1.1353928524227554, 15.191738521808213, 3.703897674627733 ], "mae": [ 6.850310839026375, 9.020376000517397, 8.082572797920323, 1.9066210417532294, 24.39840136608534, 3.5513951864266295, 1.1917512928066927, 4.965514308044039, 6.405526930574901, 5.030110560767913, 20.065129649661444, 3.835755539758073, 6.814467474577938, 7.576609714430383, 2.479066536023661, 5.194194163516808, 8.49855293649946, 3.676219231953596, 2.7642369914168303, 3.611540654451617, 4.239130909291813, 4.097423112652086, 12.861590479970426, 7.152719340232612, 2.4379214450792555, 6.354530386812064, 5.769402231233823, 2.201754374840392, 12.027643625333909, 2.258714953170766, 15.230616980018484, 3.7221715386637317 ], "mse": [ 171.70986557879723, 272.46788578746526, 460.2639054239188, 16.319048316970992, 1450.3205957445957, 45.51579927211423, 5.716847612304801, 76.1537367733795, 191.1937279556381, 120.3281906013467, 949.9217982146389, 66.25540480959758, 202.34886540470075, 215.78187321017063, 44.86058468142699, 114.86806351815143, 353.8727243970545, 32.25322660572927, 23.26529614994095, 40.33561360629454, 46.50745833422061, 56.87792072357434, 543.3267121973458, 121.16155785125645, 16.955727155510413, 116.2099668026492, 169.21385786779797, 15.684280745476968, 605.2321902384995, 17.134770488131444, 589.4915486247668, 35.56727925578239 ], "var": [ 183.26436734843514, 630.1730596294719, 165.74061893020698, 99.98166663348412, 1372.5821491221848, 187.99150126489212, 32.94012017115494, 384.80205534444616, 572.6732093932944, 397.3173938768854, 152.15778379578455, 288.35335572566896, 391.6900916314362, 554.931855296209, 36.49475388751147, 971.6709187224819, 224.47048900275803, 160.54069768111063, 168.64095622861862, 347.953494627553, 166.40424512622684, 191.547411562424, 1023.830503209375, 906.2721479889259, 50.46970927326537, 336.35650839214276, 312.66657350135785, 70.06361487624812, 158.5370530550195, 110.17329345298425, 2173.4610961814597, 97.95244176675921 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 4.296304362559292, "crpss": 0.06765321480922348, "rps": 0.43924950537141927, "rpss": 0.02830536446719134, "mean_bias_mm": 0.5153106595194393, "mean_mae_mm": 6.69599914354725, "mean_rmse_mm": 14.98657349507932, "spread_error_ratio": 1.340878101316758, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.16776838374879863, "pit_histogram": [ 0.15325, 0.05777, 0.05174, 0.06725, 0.09285, 0.12388, 0.12098, 0.11239, 0.11553, 0.10434 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.2607584341668737 } }, "distribution_full": { "ethiopia": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0394693618814226, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.04463887525275675 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 1.413370916102863, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.41866664560205397 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9815190189718869, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.0699933241698412 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9708922687727362, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.0952980969141377 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0850699692754295, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.13272524785759596 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": -0.0062015768994512135 } }, "ondj_domain": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0399654920061927, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.04459592454163128 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 1.5821123777455803, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.592942704820183 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 1.000022112626454, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.026458217232415707 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9554440981263375, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.09671102168324631 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0026470503617935, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.12138299210835336 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": 0.0 } } } }, "sdm": { "training": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 3.8555299543833796, 3.571863836753546, 16.473819741414996, 8.192591582588173, 20.757410082389402, 5.6077898895922225, 2.7644993779614344, 4.028547444298697, 9.7098815704801, 4.66690297506113, 18.14657853137912, 5.704711255890302, 3.5609891217200174, 6.561801407507848, 6.663202621765166, 10.840066093078784, 6.869683861257245, 2.8278146884881976, 2.325830903719987, 4.494619273713968, 2.4280681351012894, 2.22422055219089, 4.169611401786656, 3.2110720329249705 ], "crps_clim": [ 3.147316707451114, 3.345505329459557, 10.984966213801052, 5.565431468435425, 27.0718763908127, 3.331872595873229, 3.2339333066026654, 2.898578484108726, 7.306127788484703, 3.578837768945852, 13.61369806885984, 4.185041134572365, 2.552105347257009, 4.271290701634523, 4.644138020744405, 8.101898044577364, 4.707631815249459, 2.7497107572454813, 3.224323436142348, 3.3810268425956997, 2.5984657102999638, 2.914534006884459, 3.0779701844454106, 3.298398263301115 ], "rps": [ 0.4726281945095598, 0.35578109409489633, 1.0644457624205885, 0.6311188156835656, 0.41391383106316326, 0.7234966343219292, 0.2496381858210894, 0.4354539312279762, 0.8874922219443147, 0.5827043812059556, 1.0398944992061026, 0.6272904539863935, 0.5165319782720331, 0.6808189934833438, 0.7609045543319148, 0.794552356715242, 0.6846830468282412, 0.5262405106234225, 0.20609119703458992, 0.6260996682879875, 0.3370566731102028, 0.3238077435364247, 0.5003698386263853, 0.4195752751579607 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.49730130537920497, 0.5299108646278966, 0.4968209717644765, 0.45140321931037847, 0.5120439289026995, 0.41031169775019555, 0.4779713217459693, 0.4530884207483443, 0.5043277856041234, 0.41692670592375, 0.5103230613419248, 0.4397744822519408, 0.3965890908147674, 0.3999865051869261, 0.4105095348843729, 0.49534705826094655, 0.4525412470698913, 0.40263417109494526, 0.4947135592926832, 0.4107579460380184, 0.4281083679843292, 0.43735476661089284, 0.37946484897479493, 0.465353650018479 ], "bias": [ 6.062025620900902, 6.557079630080498, -18.717089528752428, -9.21346471563405, -22.279237208788423, -5.400594195725407, -2.089621817924728, 3.9413376294137863, -10.074793153925876, -2.960354675991261, -20.676071116991327, -4.159707478148585, 5.155328133704965, -5.6842440048944605, -7.438550959363988, -11.661596677409731, -3.6418607050490373, -0.3138642437874882, 0.1967912349455213, -2.953627684222181, 0.14068790549064025, 1.3400322739917907, 3.796523045388059, 4.659320838771428 ], "mae": [ 7.143960410913793, 7.323704563693789, 18.753519169550362, 9.560317454773731, 24.761888987125836, 6.3340566274161665, 2.636596957736303, 6.6604711645821855, 10.877900600675058, 5.526389002506018, 20.848266116120175, 6.633783945505583, 6.721119506062939, 7.129615738957398, 7.937069463608081, 11.979181214700022, 8.772254365396087, 3.289469234482465, 2.5282263965149268, 5.342584000692885, 2.5846108580351688, 3.2080008534743776, 7.0111841882517885, 5.931784008977866 ], "mse": [ 142.81709196105504, 172.39408605222053, 1144.0306860664014, 298.52683662631404, 1562.9215916105609, 98.45301335762313, 32.58131028906305, 123.00742069416918, 301.1242144168419, 91.35862461293942, 1066.4782754567836, 135.75429733489852, 132.5416324201021, 216.85338261296963, 209.4934256110898, 377.29823319973474, 273.30481136030653, 23.42892943936648, 21.049359637930014, 78.11595295107536, 16.050209673161074, 26.72811568190048, 151.9982801978614, 94.32216305819335 ], "var": [ 279.26963863687365, 447.16373786372014, 195.2021314788615, 104.91749192938427, 521.7015602384362, 119.32011760251591, 60.69773736740084, 402.67945602204173, 457.3078792925738, 210.81066596963683, 215.40170638499686, 285.39726136887725, 414.2286292978018, 373.1496569970554, 103.84782434056217, 456.1087732391101, 341.9372750535746, 141.07678671667904, 203.52882179062397, 279.89198132608055, 153.5124786752177, 149.7232506973283, 420.5958667689844, 508.6064816785621 ], "zero": [ 0.4068081851396035, 0.4139402155912575, 0.5257929010266301, 0.45534194651713233, 0.30269049381164265, 0.44272762567251367, 0.5736879886539836, 0.4372321316920703, 0.4563538089892902, 0.341888214163468, 0.45794672005569825, 0.42731344972082996, 0.3526001418195531, 0.4519772958056752, 0.468920280812962, 0.46327575961683826, 0.41834822581883874, 0.45447416583611383, 0.5657617229499433, 0.41323594421553184, 0.5115724058708668, 0.4682715942491343, 0.37093758975667124, 0.4691820650264976 ] }, "crps": 6.652379430643646, "crpss": -0.193388572289795, "rps": 0.5775245767288868, "rpss": -0.27470525665523104, "mean_bias_mm": -3.9756479939133906, "mean_mae_mm": 8.312331451239707, "mean_rmse_mm": 16.820909537837327, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0040741825955262, "zero_fraction": 0.4437617030338645, "correlation": 0.09445975388625505, "pit_histogram": [ 0.01372, 0.02704, 0.03273, 0.04241, 0.05262, 0.06458, 0.10392, 0.14849, 0.27174, 0.24277 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.733829504161075 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 2.254665075071906, 2.506757897506779, 9.763962268120684, 2.9627678815395004, 27.252091684687578, 2.561989378973649, 2.621943737987417, 4.107689477182739, 9.19019104658114, 3.353932283658547, 21.27244934863805, 6.210243137673683, 2.354563646226785, 5.160849450974077, 3.947123369647306, 9.759836868287591, 9.420546412807704, 2.0214853776909862, 1.8740866950632318, 5.355257282932102, 1.898750923706707, 1.970668842255044, 3.472332439862003, 2.711226730172412 ], "crps_clim": [ 2.4548094454165224, 2.4172161936748946, 5.333194544027777, 1.8549628212328, 34.12225179677904, 1.8644358450759109, 2.122993377234286, 2.4401382645813325, 5.73783658336709, 2.3217318677782153, 15.529706680297545, 3.9621897190875477, 1.8639890286330005, 3.876280862498442, 2.06925731997254, 7.631461938517677, 6.263162085572975, 2.1837307589862482, 2.5462616594235836, 3.4498462746206284, 2.1833797898673692, 2.4890121894953605, 2.173582577005678, 2.0020724813943143 ], "rps": [ 0.21945179181853314, 0.1953931503507351, 1.0256394272162146, 0.3691692208608274, 0.5891237188864207, 0.29424217973593597, 0.4019427401205189, 0.4146012043965991, 1.151719430249777, 0.6532290345797385, 1.3774299904936744, 0.9524865417325873, 0.5066407624416384, 0.5032107725516772, 0.7659909122205586, 1.0321712916267218, 0.7043263763925404, 0.45683365990376307, 0.12484755100429917, 0.9549959261928991, 0.18318644671061288, 0.32134006547454286, 0.6863207514667723, 0.49426514818446493 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5271012391842729, 0.5237026472803199, 0.4726651024187634, 0.4183814425674277, 0.5463137996219282, 0.3948310596898503, 0.4065592098294793, 0.42831468140896223, 0.49352864345894915, 0.3706979572196848, 0.5445864342119232, 0.4920445653961977, 0.3565574386141641, 0.3975457684832652, 0.35150037945920126, 0.5287991707856597, 0.48528999945591406, 0.42598320924629246, 0.518005444784471, 0.4652291028680146, 0.5021412621347012, 0.4343952625071855, 0.40487741585469383, 0.3925124516437722 ], "bias": [ 2.3901578771301346, 4.302832055394506, -10.405863673417949, -2.4401261805960672, -31.71663626731481, -1.4149524826318234, -2.2735014958266997, -1.468551503963749, -8.147639306440675, -1.6370688155912752, -23.467810385723617, -6.5775579354186196, 2.0446425279354408, -3.168938841851482, -4.25108893820444, -9.942059218351918, -10.024096635709787, -0.2889490547386474, 0.5307707264971825, -4.671902050468876, 0.8226953829096147, 0.8759602695660056, 5.243231042102641, 1.7745587508629257 ], "mae": [ 3.9245902135261397, 5.093460890347838, 10.443257058655318, 2.783363726766382, 31.93930220332535, 2.6265604295576352, 2.4760771315142214, 4.2118976032387145, 9.405301941364796, 3.586166440897814, 23.467817421529116, 7.046977314774937, 4.258268610888888, 5.888776241029333, 4.366629223128374, 10.0859221390289, 10.715285625850294, 2.0483079556682156, 1.6820005213843892, 5.826761846816792, 1.9187167865702686, 2.742857735645519, 7.240526584895271, 3.9323127961152227 ], "mse": [ 60.564243409563446, 109.68244483178182, 558.9004411956587, 25.967545198239048, 2339.1196661721124, 23.4504838678019, 15.79954824059122, 69.0786581171137, 326.29297495484025, 34.63950689688484, 1237.8612416844562, 170.06191357062767, 67.19178493506585, 241.75179148697012, 79.03217725989796, 266.45911542197274, 521.9816054465952, 9.005558766661542, 9.952094250073186, 88.03669311376251, 10.124727571431164, 22.24769421890906, 168.77638780508323, 45.17770733053656 ], "var": [ 139.10446113882003, 493.8639333099285, 151.75629095918256, 85.8269496313877, 481.7925698071831, 127.17333189018856, 41.46434255566195, 263.9479332797767, 583.59286529306, 200.92811611254697, 118.3072846759775, 167.60924317154283, 301.37910280400956, 398.2062021196339, 45.26494894302714, 615.9208751935067, 178.63213262993085, 102.85397831254664, 182.51552401416322, 330.77033846725743, 146.9723047970023, 172.65583184812937, 575.4675557010022, 619.6406313436428 ], "zero": [ 0.5090931094763562, 0.5245982340620254, 0.6266192510076798, 0.6314455755208583, 0.38754029230246384, 0.45953362484300153, 0.6764670171382057, 0.5484435153638682, 0.6142828984200229, 0.42649585146773555, 0.5421271409638738, 0.5321743955495861, 0.44011340650532427, 0.5217852118776329, 0.5770467830180837, 0.5472024644059231, 0.5188216165040008, 0.5837738279598578, 0.7041850562925449, 0.5183972252100236, 0.634560430489697, 0.6209245489349519, 0.4781003460916381, 0.6029801216885802 ] }, "crps": 6.000225469051984, "crpss": -0.21121344973251377, "rps": 0.5991065872755023, "rpss": -0.321368739522536, "mean_bias_mm": -4.3296622564105, "mean_mae_mm": 6.987964101771655, "mean_rmse_mm": 16.458478065709567, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0018817976818966, "zero_fraction": 0.5511129977122473, "correlation": 0.22877717744517775, "pit_histogram": [ 0.00133, 0.00615, 0.00686, 0.00853, 0.01781, 0.0376, 0.0887, 0.16977, 0.38683, 0.27642 ], "pit_reliability_index": 1.0660353609795816 } }, "operational": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 1.9919327478491966, 2.7501543499012295, 6.225962631579982, 3.09796415547532, 11.930414441326711, 3.884247016100762, 5.29252542078415, 2.207062580112281 ], "crps_clim": [ 3.000358402837215, 3.2118104787747215, 4.432332626338175, 2.616293468105364, 7.502465706182092, 2.7696475536717284, 4.029967303787228, 2.9260298617309384 ], "rps": [ 0.1400204487165012, 0.3292777045002608, 0.7381475781326957, 0.39181992886656686, 0.9789190999445199, 0.6708073557173965, 0.5116837164320797, 0.23674885775249538 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5137613090872692, 0.49705239615939123, 0.40610073525670304, 0.44669601338418186, 0.4481977724282379, 0.39955792469123536, 0.39062127201913327, 0.49615040098932883 ], "bias": [ -0.2297585753519326, 4.303943740395871, -6.5546746021900155, -1.7822665707655876, -13.400021128395878, -2.169888933075058, 3.5056973883981977, 0.07605501614478698 ], "mae": [ 2.2954323037805446, 5.461850368049762, 7.178071329010019, 3.354618364882014, 13.472019396787502, 3.5735556596781306, 8.133133847229905, 2.593186597226419 ], "mse": [ 10.508676145337143, 80.80656399969945, 202.464336016007, 40.3257353765467, 532.2090151877968, 40.05566384096463, 151.85452131135864, 14.964976246234329 ], "var": [ 85.08824938414696, 364.68191775226006, 184.124543838208, 118.72104703672295, 189.43510127618987, 178.7961927859909, 665.7364114702569, 115.20179751900132 ], "zero": [ 0.5462819390572654, 0.5154116808790332, 0.4730832666263122, 0.5759745766265744, 0.5255918772508741, 0.5711910634200597, 0.3451558927846142, 0.5779622660096985 ] }, "crps": 4.672532917891204, "crpss": -0.2260283815036379, "rps": 0.49967808625781446, "rpss": -0.11097042013844693, "mean_bias_mm": -2.031364208104952, "mean_mae_mm": 5.757733483330537, "mean_rmse_mm": 11.582257379953749, "spread_error_ratio": 1.3311976233435479, "zero_fraction": 0.516331570331804, "correlation": 0.15211116309798453, "pit_histogram": [ 0.0097, 0.01732, 0.01931, 0.02808, 0.0486, 0.08556, 0.09905, 0.16781, 0.2532, 0.27138 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.7847735048719225 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 1.6832124856697752, 2.1690906038345705, 7.9338175090549266, 2.3167940737490826, 13.048781195338487, 3.0610302835773893, 4.215336294433016, 1.806552136666166 ], "crps_clim": [ 2.366231987002849, 2.259909659422711, 5.567918347623332, 1.9966771549125995, 8.330258482082852, 1.9477425770778494, 3.4305474768916633, 2.1733161564516763 ], "rps": [ 0.06652453818542935, 0.3121206604465082, 1.0473210243641653, 0.3290723450198395, 0.968066460524873, 0.8228428476956459, 0.39689646685619046, 0.37110122197081946 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5473323710222779, 0.45950888532469003, 0.47310561454117583, 0.451258434482434, 0.43752408372393053, 0.3769753182133201, 0.34410807043894076, 0.45220364528394885 ], "bias": [ -0.4344177145369178, 2.1912871743291005, -8.861641930157802, -1.2817593087214256, -14.296750309933948, -1.9109051962712131, 4.889748505009227, 0.09111328934749384 ], "mae": [ 1.880812567718156, 3.6350627076134696, 9.148505403123202, 2.1891941773335053, 14.4010056124064, 2.8202554876355523, 6.709147517307668, 2.1055436842141066 ], "mse": [ 6.871432309558643, 41.66497466225881, 327.4983682557079, 13.596132230317874, 788.9682243779297, 17.543154298296823, 120.00239019800028, 9.884158929219424 ], "var": [ 59.5781709438912, 285.6963885999548, 211.14010752624353, 76.19966050627829, 165.1916243689908, 115.21666483209903, 849.020856034916, 89.40480997371503 ], "zero": [ 0.6473391097619524, 0.6658522345792794, 0.566101666843201, 0.706771770640369, 0.6315997998095827, 0.6768546401183702, 0.3523762662583278, 0.6514682727150639 ] }, "crps": 4.529326822790427, "crpss": -0.2907465715843238, "rps": 0.539243195632934, "rpss": -0.2179349415247076, "mean_bias_mm": -2.451665686366936, "mean_mae_mm": 5.361190894669008, "mean_rmse_mm": 12.874533172416823, "spread_error_ratio": 1.1816240140970655, "zero_fraction": 0.6122954700907683, "correlation": 0.0788705010639005, "pit_histogram": [ 0.00222, 0.00462, 0.00661, 0.01567, 0.02812, 0.06224, 0.07094, 0.18335, 0.28966, 0.33657 ], "pit_reliability_index": 1.0191683176822879 } }, "full": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 3.6064719584002924, 3.3331643095595935, 16.7033817968951, 8.377500736944366, 21.467360278229034, 5.699400434568179, 2.7674742519853726, 3.8782949732555325, 9.839808787619354, 4.8827896766682, 18.496403638275147, 5.874930263262814, 3.443980515513937, 6.628665781288595, 6.685042063202223, 11.163657126322269, 6.720467303268442, 2.751956965102292, 2.254626822962045, 4.559812639441346, 2.3654532343949777, 2.1281759777012934, 4.027518508674694, 3.081855130899509, 1.9474756658025059, 2.6864789178854744, 6.426144526521917, 3.061775937960949, 12.324355646562426, 3.8622742886759287, 5.151982423290135, 2.146576232932835 ], "crps_clim": [ 2.6897179853589925, 2.867287610747155, 11.613583597576943, 5.886197674812449, 27.77500554826608, 3.3326847383568015, 2.8099124904438204, 2.624493357547262, 7.71221722782229, 3.8123457628295836, 14.271810450341063, 4.481516504313957, 2.329174473258749, 4.367684268620377, 4.603049696222213, 8.657359289497048, 4.649450179185341, 2.4755201422145108, 2.7360868719092664, 3.4495472657845374, 2.254603487223936, 2.505246979400119, 3.1059697413108407, 2.855418618210857, 2.766727211701212, 2.9690284184817233, 4.63923895270541, 2.3781737857801595, 8.084302871907116, 2.606734429626978, 4.181426375823429, 2.68056081509455 ], "rps": [ 0.5047672396421407, 0.4005475441829191, 1.0722272026848259, 0.6569676819070696, 0.3966859593812621, 0.7621655502893997, 0.2696645322845434, 0.46593938626183823, 0.8730010450748712, 0.6164195539768383, 1.0389536444043561, 0.6318292142815668, 0.5609963075976162, 0.7192493169521249, 0.8067101194318022, 0.8090997805954973, 0.6731848918101206, 0.5366647713400984, 0.21406194670163303, 0.6195938192914638, 0.34642927363551523, 0.33419202850493707, 0.4898582716084818, 0.45357810696052764, 0.164275470160851, 0.3345227390654623, 0.7555191118459876, 0.41303260307229295, 1.027145382509981, 0.7275078292500543, 0.4997296776363511, 0.25215795860148355 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.49041507783712296, 0.5369376306368444, 0.5100667474154729, 0.4521868075526217, 0.5217072761921506, 0.4133935720112422, 0.47234840051899624, 0.43488625630302596, 0.5255484732176574, 0.43690918492602165, 0.5252437168376151, 0.45828462824902266, 0.38486514853319226, 0.4081996460632345, 0.40282801997469403, 0.5125391329245191, 0.44742012622339855, 0.39216921729503385, 0.5031366769351334, 0.41349098916290067, 0.4059993484819169, 0.41024969837800246, 0.3849070120945385, 0.44180910334017454, 0.4984255550790732, 0.4983306583397526, 0.40315870128184617, 0.42477518647713974, 0.4628459104807814, 0.3911057460601312, 0.4012825990880415, 0.4936916796322727 ], "bias": [ 5.460633991405556, 5.867886792099638, -18.97566385776267, -9.421906440409852, -23.01956626600342, -5.686382874661318, -2.253272459255854, 3.234615430355749, -10.63388709213388, -3.4160676046207485, -20.947805771821066, -4.671404670312618, 4.494288399094106, -6.163645609570381, -7.620870355106128, -12.188146669958837, -4.28538613442667, -0.7378995884086266, -0.08616573064769896, -3.4154784188221115, -0.2080956680915898, 0.9742658680514322, 2.9465325298536023, 3.9961286676640193, -0.42361642427728025, 4.02595272677145, -7.064442231986913, -2.0103887090780947, -13.88825363788772, -2.4198382312456954, 2.920265179069012, -0.15131281283096923 ], "mae": [ 6.614039360052114, 6.6807998128210215, 19.009060977104173, 9.766803785375842, 25.38462124796601, 6.495409461937944, 2.6882965999479427, 6.143562221251057, 11.243325203382273, 5.791099150451749, 21.161224107987454, 6.995322746556513, 6.285439425801889, 7.196799273817928, 8.002526562682219, 12.52444426887589, 8.513511692885507, 3.0304493934547274, 2.3618127378190157, 5.43282120254878, 2.4478940083257967, 2.9774275242137036, 6.5725515213499515, 5.394724806846494, 2.2082592826621386, 5.232995873826778, 7.473363344998536, 3.2639845063785824, 13.93340319195933, 3.588577431502902, 7.6756541384685955, 2.4814859307237693 ], "mse": [ 121.35278504731217, 147.17616731874048, 1162.9814821962373, 307.10379419953136, 1628.4840227715176, 101.87262421693345, 32.9463141311452, 105.58483915290829, 317.7532913159765, 100.8076410888674, 1095.6834213000332, 148.48528890358398, 120.54960878157866, 223.17928217728254, 211.4410297106961, 408.33777243072865, 269.17355372977715, 20.02115797305859, 18.296097728953015, 83.8561935964719, 14.669871116389729, 22.84972048008412, 134.7015154626246, 81.2029166276715, 9.476908308592668, 75.58422591141638, 220.48346852785258, 39.34867259882163, 560.1756091825761, 40.55866188063119, 134.63044780393233, 13.269599056098045 ], "var": [ 246.04489620390436, 381.86836834330904, 170.91235455673853, 95.17278038369989, 487.5238756152612, 105.07490599513149, 54.79050823320926, 350.32079083428243, 394.2379477296857, 188.33547677079, 195.77731973260572, 248.9091585065263, 346.14488994149116, 326.0591108253734, 93.71113869017712, 386.7147980909818, 286.56235933930003, 117.26984233509874, 178.51042903578332, 250.7350868453683, 135.00271834566675, 130.17144189901205, 351.135901013162, 424.6144506247669, 75.22551977245377, 328.99313224884935, 160.22311929979833, 105.97476126808722, 164.75842687945965, 162.3348574659673, 640.6960831056573, 102.10830402501485 ], "zero": [ 0.40981426797607157, 0.41857117748780903, 0.528256512430422, 0.4589467984501831, 0.3086136647548087, 0.44752006354896307, 0.5761220029091108, 0.4407520945512914, 0.4587874987090635, 0.3451876405389621, 0.460240801823269, 0.4312107649252666, 0.3568674365660952, 0.45672110479793027, 0.4733570785031928, 0.46969315032160713, 0.4208971593411548, 0.4594039726792235, 0.5665769665845207, 0.41565048427160983, 0.5138992934033019, 0.46959766822927634, 0.37373765997344865, 0.4743666721727622, 0.5488932881564065, 0.5189142262426218, 0.47637143921890074, 0.5795483829736179, 0.5309520580560113, 0.5742564620406838, 0.35158004612848875, 0.5831769732850911 ] }, "crps": 6.198289275439587, "crpss": -0.20815464269642825, "rps": 0.5758336862794973, "rpss": -0.2743949580799947, "mean_bias_mm": -3.930278989842362, "mean_mae_mm": 7.64286533731177, "mean_rmse_mm": 15.783731720437684, "spread_error_ratio": 0.9818905990927176, "zero_fraction": 0.4655776503453489, "correlation": 0.10284511811681485, "pit_histogram": [ 0.01446, 0.02552, 0.0302, 0.03575, 0.04407, 0.06438, 0.0987, 0.15239, 0.27011, 0.26441 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.7738357411658361 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 2.1581437579231615, 2.4132223646080506, 9.855521007929449, 3.001145073819047, 27.920063511536533, 2.615785108259038, 2.6687984885931124, 4.150197632465167, 9.246060439870103, 3.448998214172789, 21.4479130550789, 6.369709049952435, 2.334405619965242, 5.152528618319379, 4.002678567035221, 10.033135556065671, 9.512834776852738, 2.0360512269381235, 1.8695743122608255, 5.550409823409893, 1.8761201576461346, 1.9414664413812581, 3.2883045841373195, 2.7042710429552828, 1.6735302395824774, 2.1482611593542362, 8.208733208750884, 2.3240387755442047, 13.430135563063995, 3.0990046390275303, 4.220950327373074, 1.7957256383523934 ], "crps_clim": [ 2.1962156929740804, 2.1788012116298163, 5.48867715919352, 1.7773343754893767, 34.32641868083757, 1.8627034830071907, 1.9715211508068933, 2.4850922338242754, 5.825734906672177, 2.4213405279615716, 15.788972303238339, 4.131178922483057, 1.7605249281308137, 3.8097412938741515, 2.031828268076108, 7.918858186445213, 6.382316217886629, 2.0199351210734884, 2.268887809680827, 3.672694877557107, 1.9649460420847091, 2.2337494697367615, 2.0965498141099683, 1.8861829698011934, 2.2991833116108906, 2.179019211557004, 5.967272104997054, 1.9197227040545963, 8.917885769487894, 1.949950438310964, 3.6326875965041756, 2.091802235366322 ], "rps": [ 0.2317633323631276, 0.1973376310799322, 1.0787207933089051, 0.4303265352639662, 0.5731816281527865, 0.32026665290652345, 0.4340147202993515, 0.4551091834296088, 1.148809394411545, 0.6994699351486711, 1.3911518068904491, 0.9611759969097533, 0.6021806299537887, 0.49892267849433836, 0.8248072901552175, 1.0549038982716, 0.7109636817793602, 0.47735364212173337, 0.1070066680145157, 0.944925564505367, 0.1698328174396173, 0.31402928779076383, 0.6860702805066174, 0.5081981882868027, 0.060987804770856774, 0.30246748883714336, 1.0563623640385504, 0.3286162824596076, 1.0168775953388063, 0.9230430365750772, 0.38578361595470445, 0.38440607509027236 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5381511480265782, 0.5320773657724542, 0.49130303512889106, 0.38498928938989757, 0.5629552549427681, 0.38290325595556074, 0.3789331388282408, 0.4247100795822977, 0.5050165255638045, 0.3889502709540875, 0.5619307137731465, 0.5113363017784888, 0.34719627842747985, 0.37617173880982513, 0.3204093918893131, 0.5500282293506343, 0.49836540383658773, 0.43075767900875145, 0.5392014406556627, 0.46954411522421585, 0.5074149366392898, 0.43384618252591467, 0.40967831680734257, 0.35129371669777265, 0.556013264324054, 0.4676500824441632, 0.4913710435949474, 0.4477522470171603, 0.4328472498436856, 0.3755117997097963, 0.35728991623881007, 0.43983412768140073 ], "bias": [ 2.08663863025675, 3.7764723435942384, -10.623790790254922, -2.5988708574920927, -32.28069609540429, -1.7320178705821991, -2.390675933521002, -1.932209934341044, -8.629509724334394, -2.002390926200982, -23.630949350132234, -6.944830403079999, 1.6325221992879817, -3.5926614213729104, -4.375352104990892, -10.501645486952766, -10.386591649746087, -0.6346753132243851, 0.33259759130613087, -5.018256849427021, 0.519523554854573, 0.589200974029671, 4.421970664416904, 1.1611032572204536, -0.5552946361103079, 1.9690127692223953, -9.371386601909673, -1.437887313933207, -14.694564313876462, -2.080125190161383, 4.435407252163168, -0.09955404474038837 ], "mae": [ 3.7428088495938674, 4.663261059109897, 10.655669557004895, 2.889532244136403, 32.4000288714904, 2.7164746348295132, 2.551861126140092, 4.177191146842942, 9.699376831484479, 3.641946935527319, 23.630949350132234, 7.316732084357056, 3.997099335687104, 5.709626027852757, 4.477066281255472, 10.600087665780645, 10.894216443390354, 1.9939766977483009, 1.6520125096667797, 6.118341783204376, 1.811841363056879, 2.645508359533056, 6.671945160370467, 3.5086225155041, 1.8832666304674601, 3.520648372227447, 9.572771883044155, 2.2272583748887023, 14.780199033951504, 2.9341611361931412, 6.334216380448996, 2.1199290931509025 ], "mse": [ 53.73728414354351, 96.21616154626956, 569.2003259654845, 27.622675345235248, 2410.7355669209364, 24.98502945390137, 16.73730582369757, 66.91349290111343, 338.1919512475271, 34.8118605241049, 1254.3254527281742, 179.09370365463076, 58.93059268473443, 241.86757601462958, 81.32961560432226, 296.91075056913616, 532.1673782482117, 8.099158434150219, 8.743259663721709, 96.47655288561072, 8.670134720320007, 19.87399617712897, 146.0181250968591, 39.036959300648995, 6.589045475689873, 39.468628664851686, 353.7409731492339, 13.6043032014048, 819.9339989519766, 18.876845475050054, 107.82523136713118, 9.361978378619524 ], "var": [ 124.82996104521214, 415.8337778955856, 128.34153691872055, 76.49003427762244, 480.18511566082196, 111.37100456091733, 37.368727247850934, 229.50231301586172, 500.94071746517676, 182.6829971569113, 107.44339020180394, 144.77071859798824, 264.1044363087308, 353.77953543812396, 41.07180428185128, 520.0294997368717, 147.22395705951723, 78.54213037484539, 162.6396697176632, 301.53695349161086, 127.81729718718803, 148.67033457979943, 471.972913081212, 505.61094131544564, 52.54342111890191, 255.6287301233433, 180.52627111928422, 66.08197224032287, 142.82884974714298, 104.39888933317258, 839.9962622662003, 79.34855071623261 ], "zero": [ 0.5146025675835585, 0.5342733612824113, 0.6309431626206607, 0.6341657702319212, 0.39901230180581326, 0.46858393543887616, 0.6803014983572574, 0.5547885774388025, 0.6180491367659443, 0.4313775029213613, 0.5442204832867447, 0.540105381789477, 0.4466675311858614, 0.5328529176140567, 0.5824867864499492, 0.5613211382249796, 0.5243309868061939, 0.5953883142975882, 0.7062075877925996, 0.523628552085587, 0.6385328671469842, 0.6234352844804186, 0.4852804535930655, 0.6116825593763309, 0.6521484389861286, 0.6729479000687437, 0.5723768358191589, 0.7152245792943134, 0.6430193441386279, 0.6839364601305871, 0.36679440710608663, 0.6628177456923068 ] }, "crps": 5.703053686944489, "crpss": -0.2376273471522976, "rps": 0.6024708281421676, "rpss": -0.33276797039472417, "mean_bias_mm": -4.205921486732387, "mean_mae_mm": 6.61058211681474, "mean_rmse_mm": 15.791706599428672, "spread_error_ratio": 0.9619336182867029, "zero_fraction": 0.5734845115566374, "correlation": 0.17204507831536653, "pit_histogram": [ 0.00201, 0.00556, 0.00556, 0.01003, 0.01737, 0.0398, 0.07549, 0.16269, 0.35884, 0.32265 ], "pit_reliability_index": 1.0883675597320088 } }, "distribution_full": { "ethiopia": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 0.6349494310065225, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.5837326590832698 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 1.161589197965458, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.6922187460323459 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean_abs_log": 13.270181133018522 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 0.1274893833466676, "area_mean_abs_log": 6.669528494474628 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 0.8201524213305816, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.35915909883977254 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.48328431372548947, "area_mean": 0.45607699891207576 } }, "ondj_domain": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 0.4774034127664335, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.6828222601956658 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 1.1168738659290964, "area_mean_abs_log": 1.1029046542855026 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean_abs_log": 13.81551055796427 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean_abs_log": 10.038653442879738 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 0.7426366803110431, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.4349849427442093 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.5633088235294107, "area_mean": 0.5734845115566367 } } } }, "cdft": { "training": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 6.89301145302752, 5.66389995166321, 15.163245702983097, 6.778490322187999, 15.098484448601504, 4.940565134868399, 2.0169791987294348, 5.2936729010383425, 7.073711838237965, 4.5267336367240345, 15.215348587292347, 4.929822962121876, 5.986127607701358, 5.763444441340945, 5.211560146120078, 8.660469904213555, 6.683011750974009, 3.1787018085463696, 1.8411128134278572, 3.447592472828616, 1.9848548409181712, 2.2044884350485328, 6.881010867715271, 3.9479523072683613 ], "crps_clim": [ 3.147316707451114, 3.345505329459557, 10.984966213801052, 5.565431468435425, 27.0718763908127, 3.331872595873229, 3.2339333066026654, 2.898578484108726, 7.306127788484703, 3.578837768945852, 13.61369806885984, 4.185041134572365, 2.552105347257009, 4.271290701634523, 4.644138020744405, 8.101898044577364, 4.707631815249459, 2.7497107572454813, 3.224323436142348, 3.3810268425956997, 2.5984657102999638, 2.914534006884459, 3.0779701844454106, 3.298398263301115 ], "rps": [ 1.0287586104058668, 0.7256886133307856, 0.9116193016399202, 0.5131728187292514, 0.1538644103302623, 0.7332620012728471, 0.25681651578357334, 0.7161405929896596, 0.5614642513092257, 0.4990556396163203, 0.7766273362633632, 0.4232098602611674, 0.7425729929214264, 0.6646491792184114, 0.5828841093488643, 0.4558179880128797, 0.7709967259576712, 0.5607420550269917, 0.22649858061701703, 0.4530963969926836, 0.3636079497115486, 0.40008870480935826, 0.47701564111380323, 0.6424200438418034 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.49730130537920497, 0.5299108646278966, 0.4968209717644765, 0.45140321931037847, 0.5120439289026995, 0.41031169775019555, 0.4779713217459693, 0.4530884207483443, 0.5043277856041234, 0.41692670592375, 0.5103230613419248, 0.4397744822519408, 0.3965890908147674, 0.3999865051869261, 0.4105095348843729, 0.49534705826094655, 0.4525412470698913, 0.40263417109494526, 0.4947135592926832, 0.4107579460380184, 0.4281083679843292, 0.43735476661089284, 0.37946484897479493, 0.465353650018479 ], "bias": [ 13.010508595333143, 11.411817049990953, -16.518955315850246, -5.756619389050895, -7.222260456609276, -1.4847557859783433, -0.6265420828305492, 10.77857726256147, -5.42957584463556, 3.449776462449619, -16.43579715091272, 3.3366591222192428, 11.733012145496472, -1.0642123848713665, -4.514569460940458, -5.363842460376583, 2.407935901820159, 4.753303252686061, 1.03755940329543, 2.2314746966626196, 3.4694804375281865, 4.5069161309715895, 12.71766583576179, 9.324625385844515 ], "mae": [ 13.024464793543281, 11.530042701432487, 17.108677716339614, 7.924361003897842, 18.72578116593244, 6.274036332336272, 2.2992824908151386, 11.252084557774028, 7.534995121870694, 7.057772763627776, 17.843460129357616, 6.952937272613696, 11.890846199898096, 7.824198165428227, 6.224132252949, 8.855838107199027, 10.173985014820493, 6.004502909911822, 2.686734451030441, 4.983640670088813, 4.141427800296296, 4.908058806044064, 13.47487485795734, 9.763063178737422 ], "mse": [ 382.8721843840413, 353.2503645913323, 1049.1646507366893, 222.3857710062675, 857.6085338543955, 96.17068185982968, 25.247474931597043, 294.97984647555774, 172.07353125959762, 161.45300565888695, 819.7852097735871, 123.26553119934206, 345.97788579826795, 196.20090566723857, 153.69040702460967, 246.43948919269505, 272.99949736433916, 78.68420578982898, 21.248478884701697, 64.49828246863186, 40.9474924501355, 64.35615870211997, 495.6390376020594, 190.62976598709702 ], "var": [ 346.83998605039386, 468.9173025787573, 201.56990821550977, 107.62049434735397, 704.8411179889603, 145.04292297647518, 48.83175251506369, 625.4355301110492, 495.6171148356221, 269.3807068384905, 266.2780272996736, 431.87780265941916, 446.6443221813196, 458.92461978561846, 122.13474926022013, 707.9172946175817, 381.0264506381148, 214.55463703457764, 143.99618021689307, 294.6375830053995, 180.0009461473444, 175.9815795027157, 669.7866626698451, 627.0650975231102 ], "zero": [ 0.002250495333258976, 0.0011757304409679183, 0.0013919469904322608, 0.00021763401892818123, 0.00037658376297793376, 0.0, 0.0007513946671986178, 0.002943242037659911, 0.005980895786274536, 0.002084067115839649, 0.0016373152228688812, 0.0003765434277781494, 0.0, 0.002170523271975123, 0.0008842676371347831, 0.00029739305574405083, 0.0024871927121026746, 0.000559838849050364, 0.0018239027247945714, 0.003002046535914739, 0.003249223041396497, 0.0029249874869873367, 0.004327468023295201, 0.001398462386348609 ] }, "crps": 6.224345563899118, "crpss": -0.1166024042048952, "rps": 0.5683362633126959, "rpss": -0.2544249224783661, "mean_bias_mm": 1.2396742229402185, "mean_mae_mm": 9.10246660266258, "mean_rmse_mm": 16.74510922710326, "spread_error_ratio": 1.126175805192735, "zero_fraction": 0.001762964772038707, "correlation": 0.15505706512214115, "pit_histogram": [ 0.28309, 0.01745, 0.03036, 0.04406, 0.06019, 0.07713, 0.07748, 0.0982, 0.13642, 0.17562 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.5902765630975142 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 3.896964939331105, 3.725472999153589, 8.157879730959618, 2.012197280721306, 16.242503710492745, 2.784907096071707, 1.8806209163540668, 3.949889458364256, 6.66604207952983, 3.6663950770028353, 17.687750593088627, 3.863387520615838, 3.525776337469167, 5.186590975208071, 2.6097067980718873, 7.55373259179575, 8.038921168859462, 2.838857439467791, 1.4868646624036157, 3.121885027406065, 1.730087164558052, 1.6270555239895979, 8.065862663741816, 2.2484120459881964 ], "crps_clim": [ 2.4548094454165224, 2.4172161936748946, 5.333194544027777, 1.8549628212328, 34.12225179677904, 1.8644358450759109, 2.122993377234286, 2.4401382645813325, 5.73783658336709, 2.3217318677782153, 15.529706680297545, 3.9621897190875477, 1.8639890286330005, 3.876280862498442, 2.06925731997254, 7.631461938517677, 6.263162085572975, 2.1837307589862482, 2.5462616594235836, 3.4498462746206284, 2.1833797898673692, 2.4890121894953605, 2.173582577005678, 2.0020724813943143 ], "rps": [ 0.8464242624915007, 0.5165590945837111, 0.7905014146885225, 0.349237294916895, 0.0031222027244454005, 0.6751515502185857, 0.37611923197416836, 0.6898513616808657, 0.8006071946160406, 0.3894088045595531, 1.0838553936847364, 0.32110063898927504, 0.6082735672962833, 0.6988130779156131, 0.6305115388349892, 0.28284676639922535, 0.8052142589701605, 0.6283932264222073, 0.13491158743821996, 0.5106523396213336, 0.37584407546334164, 0.3438563236967156, 0.5375813052140853, 0.38518123878283267 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5271012391842729, 0.5237026472803199, 0.4726651024187634, 0.4183814425674277, 0.5463137996219282, 0.3948310596898503, 0.4065592098294793, 0.42831468140896223, 0.49352864345894915, 0.3706979572196848, 0.5445864342119232, 0.4920445653961977, 0.3565574386141641, 0.3975457684832652, 0.35150037945920126, 0.5287991707856597, 0.48528999945591406, 0.42598320924629246, 0.518005444784471, 0.4652291028680146, 0.5021412621347012, 0.4343952625071855, 0.40487741585469383, 0.3925124516437722 ], "bias": [ 7.827238505633579, 9.046708504418689, -8.148854918710995, -0.705979000531378, -13.732426857502757, 4.377180943056265, -1.2686584859263672, 5.93189973193924, -4.718585370219185, 6.434269053197497, -20.0716716131926, 1.1735297272601661, 8.002417639068307, 3.9986321740050492, -2.154228002954137, 0.27498513630723576, -3.255009315620565, 5.669988575274494, 1.2690688510809394, 1.2061985784961227, 4.804257454332861, 3.5370823439659373, 17.455791584228763, 6.8693526949467225 ], "mae": [ 7.850956065705197, 9.161130555229901, 8.847198587771603, 2.0595376601295046, 18.567069954690236, 4.8840348984030415, 1.7691254260590528, 7.075466234565579, 6.8968433477451505, 7.093464059132387, 20.08913379828455, 4.677279724836734, 8.260804393671313, 9.367499305758715, 2.7778079934782873, 6.513662360308229, 10.39348948899359, 5.741455019215703, 2.3048100632888673, 3.8201042594601753, 4.857407056850949, 4.133519261444663, 17.612457858713427, 7.861007347085076 ], "mse": [ 195.63232004594465, 274.0589691644052, 491.9997877146816, 18.396192543659858, 901.0945338568172, 67.64102398727913, 9.72967811319034, 142.10558785152676, 204.3627995693397, 204.41990919485485, 930.7236949938847, 68.01366189014585, 249.85001617824335, 264.2334795240511, 48.27227144633956, 134.5566775955186, 389.7488874635314, 69.56264079051424, 15.174513515694866, 42.981493233121704, 56.88346814833122, 54.61997834196237, 788.8446718631999, 141.79014039211376 ], "var": [ 184.31861299003126, 621.0766494627425, 189.5100080125838, 98.50729086161388, 701.3601981102456, 190.40909568978736, 38.23797576752745, 590.2705993033588, 594.1531202196617, 321.90929655019545, 181.84161982752588, 365.8815628343173, 442.6405781229814, 630.8530659114587, 55.541569493863996, 1184.8655125930509, 285.56976587996337, 211.45119257145174, 180.1126102640006, 375.24721296593464, 248.32364206210417, 248.34722328672194, 1101.002983064994, 948.2780584256578 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005580645249928402, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005580645249928402, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006973277839133762, 0.0, 0.001115977326589076, 0.0005580645249928402, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 5.106990158360208, "crpss": -0.030903788426266843, "rps": 0.5326674062993044, "rpss": -0.1748327830065759, "mean_bias_mm": 1.409299497189745, "mean_mae_mm": 7.608969363367581, "mean_rmse_mm": 15.498247746947545, "spread_error_ratio": 1.3164010150360925, "zero_fraction": 0.00014531244522837387, "correlation": 0.321997884000767, "pit_histogram": [ 0.30859, 0.0084, 0.01726, 0.02997, 0.04575, 0.06332, 0.06077, 0.09233, 0.16607, 0.20755 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.7644100744857049 } }, "operational": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 1.4241180619108875, 3.0403775402740503, 4.351280891034947, 2.2716666080239065, 9.528938550402788, 2.833596430775134, 11.328658466689317, 1.7014144543977312 ], "crps_clim": [ 3.000358402837215, 3.2118104787747215, 4.432332626338175, 2.616293468105364, 7.502465706182092, 2.7696475536717284, 4.029967303787228, 2.9260298617309384 ], "rps": [ 0.20904788125040644, 0.4572269014407822, 0.45167886651449163, 0.37755694114426536, 0.7035804582281867, 0.547397302210832, 0.6917380178858372, 0.2569205739167141 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5137613090872692, 0.49705239615939123, 0.40610073525670304, 0.44669601338418186, 0.4481977724282379, 0.39955792469123536, 0.39062127201913327, 0.49615040098932883 ], "bias": [ 1.7265919769578582, 7.64219890444856, -1.8406341532321766, 0.285208095887074, -10.218857599236166, 0.2206806427239175, 17.487220701661588, 2.9032574294879145 ], "mae": [ 2.479380870657844, 7.837819774868232, 5.225614195963109, 3.193830168185471, 11.064098064264765, 3.2333628931484664, 19.404247110910443, 3.6841015086453504 ], "mse": [ 16.261946079868448, 149.56915308125107, 101.4715243758088, 42.64924069628772, 397.25368884527705, 34.73001837987888, 882.8434444854947, 30.958857712926747 ], "var": [ 66.74524232578825, 315.0700662598997, 243.73496797842418, 99.38345088628914, 190.31822932508442, 173.71088745690054, 1095.8734071449226, 124.91677177370966 ], "zero": [ 0.0024690248206844447, 0.0018532369214704623, 0.0025234802168030007, 0.0023378645993557706, 0.002300633816505254, 0.00240474239370863, 0.002438533725527315, 0.0035668876085489876 ] }, "crps": 4.560006375438595, "crpss": -0.19650248256537273, "rps": 0.46189336782393947, "rpss": -0.026960923488965838, "mean_bias_mm": 2.2757082498373213, "mean_mae_mm": 7.0153068233304605, "mean_rmse_mm": 14.386355834856136, "spread_error_ratio": 1.1811008460116603, "zero_fraction": 0.002486800512825483, "correlation": 0.17542687698318649, "pit_histogram": [ 0.17348, 0.01146, 0.02839, 0.04654, 0.07849, 0.11066, 0.10447, 0.12537, 0.1513, 0.16985 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.47023639961624575 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 0.9794143996094099, 2.113854877610958, 5.172652229873541, 1.386871200546584, 9.717255861742718, 1.930316844365297, 15.84147736704371, 1.4034973469718843 ], "crps_clim": [ 2.366231987002849, 2.259909659422711, 5.567918347623332, 1.9966771549125995, 8.330258482082852, 1.9477425770778494, 3.4305474768916633, 2.1733161564516763 ], "rps": [ 0.1821893017138396, 0.36842480043431086, 0.40527860276308636, 0.324704790249752, 0.5911647242958163, 0.6234139199473869, 0.7771593927247217, 0.3425737315005649 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5473323710222779, 0.45950888532469003, 0.47310561454117583, 0.451258434482434, 0.43752408372393053, 0.3769753182133201, 0.34410807043894076, 0.45220364528394885 ], "bias": [ 1.5425555033916263, 6.056542933645659, -1.7821290186642293, 1.1026916961172384, -10.595750534074819, 0.9665789446555855, 27.518984481493035, 4.038098943764259 ], "mae": [ 1.93064700926142, 6.349937502154818, 6.089264346116564, 2.022632003567304, 11.753018052266981, 2.4445225965020967, 27.53992295957508, 4.091452989049655 ], "mse": [ 11.304803354914318, 119.55221893290366, 148.828794133734, 15.212505226810594, 570.2406705207771, 17.025577600410102, 1515.005759384546, 34.92504614985747 ], "var": [ 56.37653818911928, 359.2699114473656, 357.7889725311365, 94.86540692786241, 173.18505826755342, 151.5044904364152, 1803.2618919034776, 135.6767511451064 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004101928140666919, 0.0, 0.0004101928140666919 ] }, "crps": 4.818167515970513, "crpss": -0.3730590540000991, "rps": 0.4518636579536848, "rpss": -0.02057947561304352, "mean_bias_mm": 3.6059466187910445, "mean_mae_mm": 7.77767468231174, "mean_rmse_mm": 17.435937655113193, "spread_error_ratio": 1.1347904037451657, "zero_fraction": 0.00010254820351667298, "correlation": 0.11282129417065084, "pit_histogram": [ 0.25313, 0.00683, 0.02651, 0.03804, 0.05087, 0.10217, 0.09721, 0.09218, 0.16516, 0.16789 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.5767175327819474 } }, "full": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 6.680076358672649, 5.424688739900938, 15.20592384180939, 6.919057925300282, 16.033055313265685, 4.822280360471743, 2.025515903781151, 5.095775543453899, 6.913298901588953, 4.65372812502829, 15.578817006374562, 5.140346890544927, 6.0357500178199315, 5.5963623702914855, 5.077832174201918, 8.793864977544363, 6.338797949797497, 2.911394822626013, 1.7510525973121447, 3.413494162944007, 1.8397001772568176, 2.099793075528887, 6.510028129025001, 3.9158107702422336, 1.3469558943896724, 3.087849949034458, 4.318649837822069, 2.1727152877515254, 9.870511237478725, 2.7951613383292133, 11.39931545662432, 1.5626603387271605 ], "crps_clim": [ 2.6897179853589925, 2.867287610747155, 11.613583597576943, 5.886197674812449, 27.77500554826608, 3.3326847383568015, 2.8099124904438204, 2.624493357547262, 7.71221722782229, 3.8123457628295836, 14.271810450341063, 4.481516504313957, 2.329174473258749, 4.367684268620377, 4.603049696222213, 8.657359289497048, 4.649450179185341, 2.4755201422145108, 2.7360868719092664, 3.4495472657845374, 2.254603487223936, 2.505246979400119, 3.1059697413108407, 2.855418618210857, 2.766727211701212, 2.9690284184817233, 4.63923895270541, 2.3781737857801595, 8.084302871907116, 2.606734429626978, 4.181426375823429, 2.68056081509455 ], "rps": [ 1.0665986358790076, 0.811578348879855, 0.890129072948583, 0.5033767874057152, 0.14951860847731882, 0.7086897184066985, 0.28368402118414787, 0.7444584463311833, 0.5057657829332578, 0.5252737154877181, 0.7853068100493168, 0.41947736671699176, 0.6972067770852023, 0.6737721749142448, 0.5778749099277813, 0.4458933048094584, 0.7280974855302644, 0.5870233378813532, 0.23380403438181574, 0.4534044392863651, 0.39651113101282814, 0.38886814052424284, 0.42344821296140545, 0.704777006563487, 0.21837146976872573, 0.527709116077192, 0.45025344661616373, 0.3850024268780901, 0.7021812333283222, 0.5944604743461779, 0.6652120639885054, 0.2604993948397429 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.49041507783712296, 0.5369376306368444, 0.5100667474154729, 0.4521868075526217, 0.5217072761921506, 0.4133935720112422, 0.47234840051899624, 0.43488625630302596, 0.5255484732176574, 0.43690918492602165, 0.5252437168376151, 0.45828462824902266, 0.38486514853319226, 0.4081996460632345, 0.40282801997469403, 0.5125391329245191, 0.44742012622339855, 0.39216921729503385, 0.5031366769351334, 0.41349098916290067, 0.4059993484819169, 0.41024969837800246, 0.3849070120945385, 0.44180910334017454, 0.4984255550790732, 0.4983306583397526, 0.40315870128184617, 0.42477518647713974, 0.4628459104807814, 0.3911057460601312, 0.4012825990880415, 0.4936916796322727 ], "bias": [ 12.505077432777068, 10.806961342305758, -16.614892072178243, -5.706547096263091, -7.849753864284119, -1.7491189647935501, -0.6208491647003938, 10.049960308857656, -5.786169289654488, 3.0219088239312306, -16.353288576643987, 2.83297789831797, 11.505958973684812, -1.4465564593496991, -4.566108440665446, -5.8028476453966915, 1.8654412205143711, 4.256081944704076, 0.9096849457528765, 1.7174126653851858, 3.2115996337498376, 4.245104667769618, 11.585121888519211, 8.919546907308153, 1.5744860619125678, 7.605133926667053, -2.3834448593190904, 0.0970917335702694, -10.678708953155429, 0.02253617867586893, 17.55338015683534, 2.6667841904616436 ], "mae": [ 12.52378662607908, 10.916200553513628, 17.118331161899363, 8.091897481569351, 19.596983128974436, 6.053836532628701, 2.3547740655023115, 10.57687914600285, 7.332285168506276, 7.047702349770111, 18.164933134753237, 7.052889577715116, 11.712373178754575, 7.364493183805404, 6.107097767651862, 9.039811015979193, 9.552078372365523, 5.3152460012082345, 2.4834723467411375, 4.704682002871238, 3.792993972490159, 4.647179235407152, 12.44320899335163, 9.35703426385107, 2.267086763547636, 7.802042243747836, 5.112449874602638, 2.9559611261581433, 11.311730728353108, 3.132892798102469, 19.270151308751316, 3.355292819899799 ], "mse": [ 349.64784061294483, 319.3614221953181, 1046.6108087941525, 223.9962653233914, 924.1224592719675, 91.15309254620647, 24.855873409183737, 255.5330417072351, 170.10240267552143, 157.2867095268813, 840.0077865625053, 131.20639814198867, 342.30586426106436, 183.57181775852877, 148.5727213570981, 255.62642959402442, 251.32359432158708, 61.16857350800582, 18.379262477300436, 57.47760738094342, 34.83778635243951, 57.9300303443055, 429.8026603584552, 177.84594050022343, 14.059990719459469, 148.05663938481277, 103.52121101744548, 39.21175771165574, 422.3486999286541, 32.6899512278217, 873.3399471768322, 26.416530744477836 ], "var": [ 318.3697209589305, 420.7102288422087, 182.51431629511765, 99.8990860518712, 660.2945553017134, 134.29685076248074, 46.79327297164364, 555.3196160648897, 444.03220309806164, 247.7591254342266, 260.69738330409024, 382.6250909282558, 419.22858640376523, 422.43312050725825, 113.81082816490672, 642.3061760022771, 338.7962062083099, 183.0730498904419, 134.4650959823924, 258.5114558654424, 161.38274404772596, 157.230799779197, 570.8288888768633, 558.5953414631008, 60.581466094561414, 301.5624055253729, 220.22563085925975, 90.205526626406, 175.44344565783254, 160.60105511012694, 1073.198265314648, 111.64359330875247 ], "zero": [ 0.002250495333258976, 0.0011757304409679183, 0.00026898840212709546, 0.0, 0.00037658376297793376, 0.0, 0.0007513946671986178, 0.0018202405226239978, 0.005980895786274536, 0.0, 0.0016372363307429957, 0.00026898840212709546, 0.0, 0.0016340195988014962, 0.0008842676371347831, 0.00029739305574405083, 0.0019273538630523107, 0.0, 0.0012095952492151756, 0.0017966413687617619, 0.002766576599263485, 0.0024174747805641786, 0.004327468023295201, 0.0006200119947690685, 0.0027870922599828947, 0.0018532369214704623, 0.002286137509043799, 0.0023378645993557706, 0.0005949001610333726, 0.0022496052229478043, 0.002438533725527315, 0.0030411279054759262 ] }, "crps": 5.791570796091872, "crpss": -0.1288781202144207, "rps": 0.5471321217319113, "rpss": -0.21087465695836616, "mean_bias_mm": 1.1685614223530107, "mean_mae_mm": 8.392430528892332, "mean_rmse_mm": 16.019881316754145, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0983641145215122, "zero_fraction": 0.0015624954413668132, "correlation": 0.14253921865501298, "pit_histogram": [ 0.26569, 0.01506, 0.02481, 0.03652, 0.06045, 0.08259, 0.08826, 0.10369, 0.1446, 0.17834 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.5846417562912423 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 3.5991856768436614, 3.448883268787299, 8.21353727850518, 2.0379870711652828, 17.127753513794204, 2.5727965748417367, 1.9328853206654706, 3.8036597375253587, 6.654604553732153, 3.3050548315884662, 17.889099200512664, 3.834744201222208, 3.270578070538761, 4.893782293093896, 2.6378378488316385, 7.49298064326154, 8.00134252497786, 2.5679158656753294, 1.506435094466544, 3.1936671032144472, 1.591002825658271, 1.6037266815770943, 7.400897112633885, 2.1319145004098026, 0.9699932955095085, 2.1036297275958775, 5.2679536565555765, 1.365883858543431, 10.27761632037721, 1.968916504627565, 16.17874935951196, 1.3185695704812597 ], "crps_clim": [ 2.1962156929740804, 2.1788012116298163, 5.48867715919352, 1.7773343754893767, 34.32641868083757, 1.8627034830071907, 1.9715211508068933, 2.4850922338242754, 5.825734906672177, 2.4213405279615716, 15.788972303238339, 4.131178922483057, 1.7605249281308137, 3.8097412938741515, 2.031828268076108, 7.918858186445213, 6.382316217886629, 2.0199351210734884, 2.268887809680827, 3.672694877557107, 1.9649460420847091, 2.2337494697367615, 2.0965498141099683, 1.8861829698011934, 2.2991833116108906, 2.179019211557004, 5.967272104997054, 1.9197227040545963, 8.917885769487894, 1.949950438310964, 3.6326875965041756, 2.091802235366322 ], "rps": [ 0.8741384683813963, 0.4819394138877069, 0.8240679137200968, 0.3743593150206704, 0.004045059346663553, 0.6156906504455626, 0.39250750548712504, 0.6617590248052176, 0.7866250794794514, 0.39837490157401617, 1.1033953930335632, 0.2889968974268955, 0.5457357502673936, 0.7150676922954194, 0.6526992419687868, 0.2529532531433521, 0.802557597894829, 0.7111118365179578, 0.12510288842974043, 0.5287674005875624, 0.41518594766212846, 0.3581331702306401, 0.4190032699977256, 0.41387467686301277, 0.14409412059334445, 0.3779555558754214, 0.4020446267649978, 0.32554415780386203, 0.6152910191408519, 0.7361029900835386, 0.751775835085533, 0.3465997853820245 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.5381511480265782, 0.5320773657724542, 0.49130303512889106, 0.38498928938989757, 0.5629552549427681, 0.38290325595556074, 0.3789331388282408, 0.4247100795822977, 0.5050165255638045, 0.3889502709540875, 0.5619307137731465, 0.5113363017784888, 0.34719627842747985, 0.37617173880982513, 0.3204093918893131, 0.5500282293506343, 0.49836540383658773, 0.43075767900875145, 0.5392014406556627, 0.46954411522421585, 0.5074149366392898, 0.43384618252591467, 0.40967831680734257, 0.35129371669777265, 0.556013264324054, 0.4676500824441632, 0.4913710435949474, 0.4477522470171603, 0.4328472498436856, 0.3755117997097963, 0.35728991623881007, 0.43983412768140073 ], "bias": [ 7.258582122048912, 8.268881415350204, -8.44724697440356, -0.945686798163325, -15.066797208861063, 3.7416062031192023, -1.4180199792054367, 4.9895312307313615, -5.271657693433109, 5.609716321729344, -20.25418244695092, 0.323931846089148, 7.467532109529952, 3.3511232311912567, -2.4133016211066156, -0.5792527223879087, -3.9152385394675853, 4.923262932483777, 0.9525808958738017, 0.4499092775841609, 4.251046438046495, 3.117050005224657, 15.80938345900459, 5.90435864487256, 1.2832891991230748, 5.733229030937208, -2.587853403662281, 0.7982687718238377, -11.317406095167396, 0.6272327928025986, 27.636870385799664, 3.645140663990032 ], "mae": [ 7.295645549792981, 8.416540634997247, 8.949396801199809, 2.0726721155747843, 19.32911532028668, 4.362802802831267, 1.8592434702446854, 6.28718612898094, 6.807163927060772, 6.420362673158044, 20.26613785966613, 4.3364389768108875, 7.757791898601596, 8.576905294562808, 2.8844527159415665, 6.3677455751757535, 10.076200993899086, 5.015774769234652, 2.137972329967803, 3.651125268382035, 4.320369225275843, 3.803932544353951, 15.973201258118742, 6.935753155647871, 1.769699766977607, 6.088634490973955, 6.049662711653768, 1.8661398136945346, 12.18654148939353, 2.4513013331382854, 27.645523933135745, 3.7132875108202943 ], "mse": [ 177.5110099648448, 245.1806963040063, 493.9248959627841, 18.837799980952475, 983.790424044041, 55.286773563877944, 10.581369773299782, 116.06036005143334, 204.01312780934467, 166.03371518849116, 944.8930924639258, 65.03331885332568, 235.52350834102722, 234.1650382044101, 49.51438398172762, 130.1023345127833, 383.95633855096054, 52.866868994783175, 12.703177132507802, 38.80156284367022, 48.024061365176365, 48.91600364176577, 674.2868427773788, 115.64495910856014, 9.696901988704338, 116.10686307281352, 154.37913176690637, 13.344674293071588, 614.8007080367001, 16.65018798628362, 1521.7878567860537, 30.08954047301577 ], "var": [ 169.66355050957807, 543.920785753338, 162.40146065508318, 86.65853879502924, 677.0161206429718, 173.83554186233428, 33.43252395373102, 510.7344374531941, 527.8460216751706, 293.75436199239596, 176.07499293179606, 318.06148609674443, 412.367007860538, 582.1658133209223, 48.01787281085076, 1077.67221040563, 242.46910261892086, 172.3878303083732, 156.39205066507077, 322.0948626767594, 215.95000855069853, 212.2754437882145, 926.6757388992178, 794.8494123778919, 48.03489898344073, 336.79649617325754, 323.2715299744336, 80.90523241345109, 148.29136114297754, 131.68025342083993, 1789.9127777740744, 114.67463773907288 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000557862227130701, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006973277839133762, 0.0, 0.0013251756617630888, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00044437554857224953, 0.0, 0.0005469237520889225 ] }, "crps": 5.005112002710161, "crpss": -0.08616608402175019, "rps": 0.5139218887248902, "rpss": -0.13688265154585588, "mean_bias_mm": 1.3726838592045825, "mean_mae_mm": 7.364835073111052, "mean_rmse_mm": 15.794092574261178, "spread_error_ratio": 1.2163554598289057, "zero_fraction": 0.00011161453042088556, "correlation": 0.2238939227486337, "pit_histogram": [ 0.28144, 0.00554, 0.01283, 0.02744, 0.04641, 0.06905, 0.07133, 0.09008, 0.16352, 0.23237 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.7546406913497277 } }, "distribution_full": { "ethiopia": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 1.1132239004971711, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.17739364753524664 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 1.528988455630765, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.6796476888270934 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.5829968788069589, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.6144608554307159 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 1.050326647670931, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.14344282172438552 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.2954494459593429, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.3819273129379992 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": -0.007938155991905848 } }, "ondj_domain": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 1.2318740612261851, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.21642876410852815 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 2.02276570864363, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.9952618500032748 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.41957786946910164, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.8597264758004234 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0102936243943168, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.1008112451040217 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.7732580486553258, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.5788704343572811 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": 0.00011161453042088555 } } } } } }, "ONDJ": { "tag": "init09_ONDJ", "cells": 1484, "methods": { "raw": { "training": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 32.61615225581305, 38.63283812219553, 40.48255347661154, 32.32727181364127, 206.1177416838621, 38.595631617220675, 40.38862054333904, 64.15097490181883, 32.94885654482093, 45.24183610561368, 41.06127763959764, 40.930236598540965, 35.89244401682797, 84.73318241052246, 38.19200660987533, 72.32885828454968, 41.49957539004915, 52.42997680679781, 62.21095758386911, 40.37287162017129, 54.242312519518514, 45.54661059849654, 43.09805979197182, 29.03189704687091 ], "crps_clim": [ 29.83323453860368, 38.88077881844172, 26.1795875687868, 36.08822373966346, 249.9992360568139, 38.426875463916396, 39.04498825040786, 38.65484959473932, 21.062619481737414, 26.341700917326186, 23.043072155361166, 23.761208131674348, 35.758076339617475, 65.51443181552213, 28.07427178189838, 41.19686340465451, 28.3419383709928, 45.95970122915301, 42.821914300357065, 27.103313627542445, 35.0043497136804, 30.34929072242817, 36.1179019010588, 32.50133398998652 ], "rps": [ 0.4654701328185924, 0.41293991355338827, 0.5562468935753303, 0.44766463541824564, 0.22512206177554234, 0.4169131908732306, 0.4437873253879049, 0.7248278790067137, 0.4602041320463181, 0.5737633359803255, 0.5401970631661688, 0.5482370738997391, 0.47999073495633526, 0.6031476621006179, 0.5408005404658949, 0.7992461746522272, 0.5273406980063543, 0.577885226294959, 0.6203537116474219, 0.5145250507051291, 0.5786531791892421, 0.5878031160106649, 0.45656751866308615, 0.3993246435054043 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.43952109738446665, 0.4701037173237654, 0.4169699152477682, 0.47870260421034994, 0.5456974480225605, 0.4718891921569669, 0.47528498795368085, 0.4682080375922366, 0.3831343617912619, 0.4088195337833923, 0.40159350714274034, 0.3947124470194672, 0.4905254609590217, 0.4972930221700924, 0.4454260522581055, 0.4580123165551393, 0.4122169895751251, 0.5190225120513517, 0.4587331615402525, 0.4177409087656852, 0.44718476038056587, 0.4632550515537808, 0.44214926963850176, 0.47013731210450704 ], "bias": [ 7.632939357079533, 8.690755592361247, 13.192395878984584, 26.70567796087678, -228.64531891122436, -6.530319539483167, -14.374242519473581, -59.259705400960364, -4.304357921096028, 7.30227455843182, 8.756894355038828, -27.015437014008626, 41.26648560309614, -87.77570668717425, 43.46635133177511, -60.927296548285206, -7.8324835297954305, 75.01384954860663, -24.229370293668726, 5.076830679192842, -48.885570263710406, -41.78049899040687, -0.898597197299239, 19.947417533153093 ], "mae": [ 46.399225243245496, 56.73368979131157, 56.076914532186585, 47.6983277677606, 236.44547422814318, 53.708219944846526, 56.89223528294789, 81.78132369838323, 45.98593082919538, 65.02707452705238, 59.81787113823562, 55.72802492490116, 50.956642130602965, 105.87900849133607, 55.0519412793917, 89.39484159255332, 56.50035866213098, 76.52086565938752, 81.54912579313017, 57.379655939365996, 71.21582328042534, 60.400107676407416, 61.45371330599361, 42.784830754801064 ], "mse": [ 3635.962149327903, 6064.063113623661, 7231.195203548468, 4349.22706834893, 86347.6546706083, 5320.677980945127, 6072.0805492844565, 10338.05310732141, 4246.8235544874215, 8235.527698956397, 6936.407898339187, 5880.988522765525, 5064.382244967916, 21005.73215012415, 5756.979787075185, 13693.84763029714, 6481.469780423522, 8740.251903097342, 12523.157662783799, 5906.751986338144, 8521.983581987455, 6018.058412267424, 6774.404511871569, 3057.373136275879 ], "var": [ 3023.2984967414945, 4466.278562386768, 2761.970296971226, 2779.7293735266335, 4301.028078032034, 2288.6672643609973, 3534.6718829843235, 2751.545566924052, 2099.6932241639406, 4108.682213373766, 3900.552704684919, 3403.309737452341, 2210.2016194587404, 3005.0780235674742, 2558.867162962182, 1694.6952923160889, 3689.6917914035694, 3377.7877800256583, 3148.058712889468, 2597.4926946910327, 3476.946846504461, 3017.472551474644, 4015.5469071457055, 2023.9777005548663 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 52.211364332608156, "crpss": -0.20480840608250617, "rps": 0.5208754955707849, "rpss": -0.14937737993644862, "mean_bias_mm": -14.80862635074957, "mean_mae_mm": 69.64088443640566, "mean_rmse_mm": 103.72299935908347, "spread_error_ratio": 0.5361970051302597, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.4327145141665442, "pit_histogram": [ 0.1685, 0.08655, 0.07091, 0.06885, 0.07125, 0.07292, 0.07224, 0.07827, 0.09287, 0.21764 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.37227348377328623 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 33.758525829159396, 41.43537857772108, 27.10606407206609, 25.060987973518497, 314.62438483999586, 36.373287082211334, 24.968367923399132, 78.43593367611393, 35.82347592906685, 49.850565569696506, 40.71824487833683, 52.76406173718941, 34.95142320477547, 126.3545916077068, 22.257985636624433, 80.97140559254876, 41.34876968314342, 49.46826130357162, 100.05307033397044, 41.72167208711965, 77.999737094833, 54.48584338279845, 46.10414423997994, 34.11768276391105 ], "crps_clim": [ 42.28827155959033, 47.03475528721915, 28.118112914314686, 51.435856466268575, 352.79501684228853, 53.54974195536778, 38.362106175221676, 39.349051348043986, 27.402303306971245, 33.04226475208313, 26.16461609134499, 33.51963055426904, 51.74936172381692, 99.15164309867102, 30.1279091186148, 46.27450144046246, 27.396128860915656, 66.68806658106446, 71.89082190601232, 28.449906713101416, 50.156317986314725, 34.37176519545435, 56.19481769512508, 45.209077740680264 ], "rps": [ 0.41235274020506374, 0.34259070861163504, 0.38641173459634454, 0.23432432786844473, 0.2830785309749583, 0.2810310013704895, 0.2760758491504821, 0.8342094703739338, 0.4364577271980376, 0.48410879874402923, 0.43712257539506033, 0.5446108561403371, 0.33304887093998703, 0.6964965667728471, 0.3069297119919926, 0.7401335372945473, 0.44846755697708374, 0.38959230057000316, 0.6880894084699921, 0.47234010851282654, 0.7098449573590524, 0.6723390618761091, 0.31903754176382115, 0.3532371962377274 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4819055012071629, 0.444711644142145, 0.3912256783048537, 0.5314847003061296, 0.5463137996219283, 0.5246370496095673, 0.46799085581035055, 0.43018330198082794, 0.37903088404294777, 0.37602959074729786, 0.3657108710730794, 0.4071905831264576, 0.5346883545994874, 0.5378418884618463, 0.397580420764294, 0.42189702270560003, 0.35631035559982877, 0.5447213136522713, 0.4681166143725515, 0.3573140603557788, 0.4646548705590716, 0.44355045410047106, 0.4892057906870231, 0.5235515159121176 ], "bias": [ 24.987874063216363, -38.83656432412506, -3.9892039501732106, 22.50491677796663, -349.3641179199595, 24.590353504713438, 3.930620658509845, -92.56492801213497, -29.084520305645817, -53.29245879716315, -33.696085239350936, -65.00185196033038, 41.363291045029406, -153.27596635341098, 11.941991062385375, -95.31301615737213, -15.778094597769647, 68.72189256137223, -117.35720496842988, -29.40213440804372, -96.44234244776041, -65.16214353254655, -36.64616776174633, 28.010214150366522 ], "mae": [ 49.924033063794646, 56.20265407650557, 38.81329612484007, 39.79284468574809, 349.3641179199595, 53.406730345108485, 37.747760057033815, 96.9472552882887, 48.64346941621373, 62.79650633078466, 57.20633922652139, 69.04088930856398, 50.5716237088457, 153.27596635341098, 34.20774560345776, 98.87875812559157, 56.513941754727725, 70.23830019831993, 120.84650627940562, 58.318147140017786, 97.94297879755709, 70.17842032756583, 63.9235215294405, 50.2428286485263 ], "mse": [ 3448.1066131160665, 6282.676411101253, 2984.1300768304227, 2191.1542254690808, 142487.51795602075, 4549.20982109375, 2189.646917977381, 13714.716965486119, 4397.480842588098, 9488.468967030127, 6144.898069105883, 7966.073714995399, 3553.005367209154, 33845.28907536577, 1797.589665723603, 17662.037521794406, 7072.913105907154, 6318.847442799035, 22676.9735195139, 5298.917485057853, 13207.185370445322, 7160.964098132003, 7499.854433462994, 3239.2219021985406 ], "var": [ 2128.491516947462, 4933.774502763829, 2487.822094657394, 2464.8019806364237, 4101.677146620158, 2188.6943500154457, 2695.8972948405985, 2284.3709189811416, 1964.5400366889983, 2489.2586407276217, 2926.9403663348644, 3139.225065968998, 1923.108308338503, 2844.6410909846772, 2564.960458844766, 1728.6900795166732, 2973.3225589598965, 2078.952936777393, 2684.884224201169, 2583.6354543562484, 3030.4671423145687, 2340.10158040682, 5697.583263650295, 1637.718672101137 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 61.28141104247742, "crpss": -0.06520633172465784, "rps": 0.4617471308081169, "rpss": -0.01801274769512995, "mean_bias_mm": -43.714818621350126, "mean_mae_mm": 78.54269309625955, "mean_rmse_mm": 118.17657684732201, "spread_error_ratio": 0.44338853394480415, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.6135636018126406, "pit_histogram": [ 0.13374, 0.07081, 0.059, 0.06191, 0.06338, 0.06358, 0.06424, 0.07157, 0.10032, 0.31145 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.49102301956184424 } }, "operational": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 38.96083155903369, 28.55696511659234, 115.62527416588202, 30.57688752072994, 35.04067587226217, 33.787181590194066, 106.2946695842079, 57.352937084315364 ], "crps_clim": [ 24.186278935163696, 25.3510236438784, 115.19291638908858, 23.883905041341485, 31.83506561734916, 24.11958582957673, 108.55164002965007, 36.322116319494704 ], "rps": [ 0.5414397374325982, 0.4505325523204127, 0.5351665842064062, 0.4145442823591424, 0.5109997472596642, 0.450963187011752, 0.4651083896004803, 0.6946948035723044 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.41765960837363175, 0.4211483967453936, 0.5533032169639418, 0.44730768376472113, 0.4625683819363159, 0.41678104776399905, 0.5158924087479178, 0.42890010225976694 ], "bias": [ -12.580345736600925, -12.704253952043825, -138.96794419643012, -0.5132332257146195, -0.9428338478510438, 16.77778767787438, -115.07267732343753, -64.85971055498213 ], "mae": [ 54.96400675259154, 39.3990808453123, 144.42171506190004, 43.71054152985257, 48.69621595950511, 50.50752659708424, 130.69428901533078, 73.41009284579206 ], "mse": [ 5023.638686437752, 2785.012369828116, 29897.68262652421, 4095.605517917834, 3790.0306066309677, 4672.822255670327, 29429.698109848403, 8923.8130184694 ], "var": [ 2924.6875356138657, 2715.112277545104, 4551.998054208005, 2779.3628056128778, 2029.2691119025296, 3874.109899004914, 4124.043457895403, 2456.840162025449 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 55.77442781165219, "crpss": -0.1457285377243096, "rps": 0.5079311604703451, "rpss": -0.10915293998270292, "mean_bias_mm": -41.107901394898235, "mean_mae_mm": 73.22543357592107, "mean_rmse_mm": 105.24869547370112, "spread_error_ratio": 0.5359551477789208, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.4120818163173928, "pit_histogram": [ 0.08069, 0.0674, 0.06663, 0.06569, 0.06672, 0.06569, 0.07267, 0.08623, 0.11407, 0.3142 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.45654888052846865 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 49.38886981114629, 23.052998865884607, 150.9519696636648, 34.85061135171861, 31.59061478691696, 28.75216647280036, 170.33303927811224, 46.32800862621461 ], "crps_clim": [ 27.513828107781922, 30.99293899368493, 161.45686691829505, 27.920571148564072, 44.378057761090616, 29.766973014786096, 175.6320250314755, 25.22282617443876 ], "rps": [ 0.5916496606480275, 0.265264256335419, 0.39248189170769265, 0.4232893798208553, 0.34566142988681914, 0.4343200078005726, 0.39523896319490387, 0.5659476280290208 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.37168677457254995, 0.40830736189644173, 0.5514955486398806, 0.4122454653654102, 0.5073582603125171, 0.4229682694777741, 0.5480141318493015, 0.3433109764761434 ], "bias": [ -58.36746374105122, -7.535709328606254, -186.50562809933027, -19.219422496365507, 27.89947126969293, 9.064963836467074, -201.7992367171269, -49.875639289061915 ], "mae": [ 65.95906254480283, 32.19284831890637, 186.56665692650964, 47.92209172204096, 48.04086635626123, 43.140928244137285, 202.1976160572245, 60.35353960690217 ], "mse": [ 6427.899239623763, 1823.7427822870936, 42057.27926401038, 4555.769541374446, 3122.6384213264932, 2875.647836318242, 50676.939874320386, 6516.261112264492 ], "var": [ 2796.859339975843, 2391.2648374526893, 5354.300419744373, 2326.724170435843, 2012.8610954695284, 2691.307940775092, 3994.7085959435303, 2014.8410793007606 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 66.9060348570573, "crpss": -0.023646142635034506, "rps": 0.42673165217791387, "rpss": 0.04250129934055025, "mean_bias_mm": -60.792333070672754, "mean_mae_mm": 85.79670122209812, "mean_rmse_mm": 121.47848475734565, "spread_error_ratio": 0.4469448584274587, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.8755372511262276, "pit_histogram": [ 0.07671, 0.066, 0.0663, 0.05822, 0.0621, 0.056, 0.0578, 0.06711, 0.10615, 0.3836 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.5795150070014246 } }, "full": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 32.61615225581305, 38.63283812219553, 40.48255347661154, 32.32727181364127, 206.1177416838621, 38.595631617220675, 40.38862054333904, 64.15097490181883, 32.94885654482093, 45.24183610561368, 41.06127763959764, 40.930236598540965, 35.89244401682797, 84.73318241052246, 38.19200660987533, 72.32885828454968, 41.49957539004915, 52.42997680679781, 62.21095758386911, 40.37287162017129, 54.242312519518514, 45.54661059849654, 43.09805979197182, 29.03189704687091, 38.96083155903369, 28.55696511659234, 115.62527416588202, 30.57688752072994, 35.04067587226217, 33.787181590194066, 106.2946695842079, 57.352937084315364 ], "crps_clim": [ 30.220473451764587, 39.917418564936064, 27.757568172072368, 37.802333372958124, 238.75051318915055, 37.61181929878509, 37.616082531632294, 37.23600638646016, 21.306686770765648, 28.4780000830409, 25.20476923730856, 24.600584384519205, 37.81772054414582, 61.83148106658277, 29.811614275645827, 41.56571447524313, 29.657529779748423, 47.67275462965923, 43.64083140619902, 27.6391470098042, 34.1009877354789, 28.817911129816427, 35.16768869621822, 33.87686011313925, 25.87047943593951, 26.437105491714817, 114.62794696826606, 26.4205712229385, 33.14461289262585, 24.563582570388807, 107.27766982133843, 35.50441102323164 ], "rps": [ 0.46208582532980796, 0.4039344284856083, 0.5453370514121176, 0.4346903369903454, 0.24707085063257206, 0.4232387709148904, 0.45727669334290927, 0.7458089848297954, 0.45666924925555885, 0.5760714814986053, 0.53782572398844, 0.5536237905340609, 0.4749433557459575, 0.6288569795972649, 0.5369200760040789, 0.8126567290041162, 0.5104157107027163, 0.5803783753725485, 0.6162292834449884, 0.5357928786825987, 0.5958766477692113, 0.6059919268354995, 0.4605207038687646, 0.39993079558328415, 0.5293539207142922, 0.43218830860214735, 0.5351348948319202, 0.3983706535735178, 0.4974374558381849, 0.45122641757151294, 0.4660578360469212, 0.6900802300384029 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.42752784364987473, 0.47525412925412475, 0.4178646042147745, 0.4860452399955733, 0.5615292811104182, 0.4629144820543785, 0.4720919884684642, 0.46355275516950334, 0.3602950493837294, 0.41093548411809694, 0.39925120731108465, 0.3862724441100123, 0.4981591164438388, 0.48945929833950264, 0.4479384312130977, 0.4604687964566817, 0.402555507760245, 0.5325649512878922, 0.46103987989217676, 0.4197441009203777, 0.4304978343784619, 0.45092626124868035, 0.4260850230367853, 0.4774252618219362, 0.4145131464744774, 0.4091714328578628, 0.5607984489124369, 0.46414258203020875, 0.45688333757744265, 0.4028824114723692, 0.5188382677855484, 0.41855246264432233 ], "bias": [ 7.632939357079533, 8.690755592361247, 13.192395878984584, 26.70567796087678, -228.64531891122436, -6.530319539483167, -14.374242519473581, -59.259705400960364, -4.304357921096028, 7.30227455843182, 8.756894355038828, -27.015437014008626, 41.26648560309614, -87.77570668717425, 43.46635133177511, -60.927296548285206, -7.8324835297954305, 75.01384954860663, -24.229370293668726, 5.076830679192842, -48.885570263710406, -41.78049899040687, -0.898597197299239, 19.947417533153093, -12.580345736600925, -12.704253952043825, -138.96794419643012, -0.5132332257146195, -0.9428338478510438, 16.77778767787438, -115.07267732343753, -64.85971055498213 ], "mae": [ 46.399225243245496, 56.73368979131157, 56.076914532186585, 47.6983277677606, 236.44547422814318, 53.708219944846526, 56.89223528294789, 81.78132369838323, 45.98593082919538, 65.02707452705238, 59.81787113823562, 55.72802492490116, 50.956642130602965, 105.87900849133607, 55.0519412793917, 89.39484159255332, 56.50035866213098, 76.52086565938752, 81.54912579313017, 57.379655939365996, 71.21582328042534, 60.400107676407416, 61.45371330599361, 42.784830754801064, 54.96400675259154, 39.3990808453123, 144.42171506190004, 43.71054152985257, 48.69621595950511, 50.50752659708424, 130.69428901533078, 73.41009284579206 ], "mse": [ 3635.962149327903, 6064.063113623661, 7231.195203548468, 4349.22706834893, 86347.6546706083, 5320.677980945127, 6072.0805492844565, 10338.05310732141, 4246.8235544874215, 8235.527698956397, 6936.407898339187, 5880.988522765525, 5064.382244967916, 21005.73215012415, 5756.979787075185, 13693.84763029714, 6481.469780423522, 8740.251903097342, 12523.157662783799, 5906.751986338144, 8521.983581987455, 6018.058412267424, 6774.404511871569, 3057.373136275879, 5023.638686437752, 2785.012369828116, 29897.68262652421, 4095.605517917834, 3790.0306066309677, 4672.822255670327, 29429.698109848403, 8923.8130184694 ], "var": [ 3023.2984967414945, 4466.278562386768, 2761.970296971226, 2779.7293735266335, 4301.028078032034, 2288.6672643609973, 3534.6718829843235, 2751.545566924052, 2099.6932241639406, 4108.682213373766, 3900.552704684919, 3403.309737452341, 2210.2016194587404, 3005.0780235674742, 2558.867162962182, 1694.6952923160889, 3689.6917914035694, 3377.7877800256583, 3148.058712889468, 2597.4926946910327, 3476.946846504461, 3017.472551474644, 4015.5469071457055, 2023.9777005548663, 2924.6875356138657, 2715.112277545104, 4551.998054208005, 2779.3628056128778, 2029.2691119025296, 3874.109899004914, 4124.043457895403, 2456.840162025449 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 53.10213020236917, "crpss": -0.18668214715957188, "rps": 0.5188123864700824, "rpss": -0.1476419586194775, "mean_bias_mm": -21.383445111786735, "mean_mae_mm": 70.53702172128452, "mean_rmse_mm": 104.10651959297405, "spread_error_ratio": 0.5361352171563288, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.4062304333521248, "pit_histogram": [ 0.14655, 0.08176, 0.06984, 0.06806, 0.07012, 0.07111, 0.07235, 0.08026, 0.09817, 0.24178 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.3766523166885194 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 33.758525829159396, 41.43537857772108, 27.10606407206609, 25.060987973518497, 314.62438483999586, 36.373287082211334, 24.968367923399132, 78.43593367611393, 35.82347592906685, 49.850565569696506, 40.71824487833683, 52.76406173718941, 34.95142320477547, 126.3545916077068, 22.257985636624433, 80.97140559254876, 41.34876968314342, 49.46826130357162, 100.05307033397044, 41.72167208711965, 77.999737094833, 54.48584338279845, 46.10414423997994, 34.11768276391105, 49.38886981114629, 23.052998865884607, 150.9519696636648, 34.85061135171861, 31.59061478691696, 28.75216647280036, 170.33303927811224, 46.32800862621461 ], "crps_clim": [ 43.05674508597644, 47.02174056492448, 28.84873411344585, 52.31210697339705, 337.83045973804184, 54.55256595155876, 38.94875701090369, 39.57782058741483, 27.74569141249191, 34.126369417367485, 27.450347808492733, 34.017006869578225, 52.72584373838084, 95.1322901374424, 31.016202641442625, 46.77726687336443, 28.68599867750331, 67.63450525795584, 70.45970873133518, 29.076021275933627, 49.86214141911897, 34.70899724260007, 55.60856424824002, 45.9400310845385, 29.402894877394107, 33.32071549456562, 163.04105609314394, 29.873009959301736, 48.200340322444724, 32.07710679517107, 177.18917611869378, 26.893576505878865 ], "rps": [ 0.4177063184210216, 0.33906617308234716, 0.3809749491824284, 0.2390767066973029, 0.28964861800278546, 0.2981018078382873, 0.2754413785778511, 0.8377169458784647, 0.4313601767311654, 0.49335796087846084, 0.4588187521116582, 0.5598496328126974, 0.3442217609217484, 0.713502470930144, 0.3027598291327181, 0.7567599093948983, 0.43866413075408744, 0.40531795367960527, 0.6901311449697336, 0.4829523903237447, 0.7156573205738537, 0.6708892744811658, 0.3282220910922122, 0.36569340260572397, 0.6050941493299302, 0.2410321599995442, 0.36326899661602374, 0.4258115786766662, 0.3257389641860732, 0.40655824444821353, 0.3679447156731642, 0.5282103288316417 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4903301532167852, 0.44204091246608007, 0.3821454984532625, 0.5431907333012903, 0.5629552549427677, 0.538931603827915, 0.47718465303177104, 0.4269517164665013, 0.3648511299187768, 0.3588689197908303, 0.356723031227705, 0.4013877968759663, 0.5457092532164318, 0.5530781005304259, 0.3883080341726342, 0.41667877142632664, 0.33834680801777955, 0.5610985777523381, 0.4668682110446354, 0.34014334800184304, 0.464044269131601, 0.43822125796975975, 0.5000883325693602, 0.5339534977340119, 0.3734059025504393, 0.40314128440280195, 0.5592508943098848, 0.414709381099934, 0.516605453040115, 0.4212120203974677, 0.5555451413875876, 0.33021111911934736 ], "bias": [ 24.987874063216363, -38.83656432412506, -3.9892039501732106, 22.50491677796663, -349.3641179199595, 24.590353504713438, 3.930620658509845, -92.56492801213497, -29.084520305645817, -53.29245879716315, -33.696085239350936, -65.00185196033038, 41.363291045029406, -153.27596635341098, 11.941991062385375, -95.31301615737213, -15.778094597769647, 68.72189256137223, -117.35720496842988, -29.40213440804372, -96.44234244776041, -65.16214353254655, -36.64616776174633, 28.010214150366522, -58.36746374105122, -7.535709328606254, -186.50562809933027, -19.219422496365507, 27.89947126969293, 9.064963836467074, -201.7992367171269, -49.875639289061915 ], "mae": [ 49.924033063794646, 56.20265407650557, 38.81329612484007, 39.79284468574809, 349.3641179199595, 53.406730345108485, 37.747760057033815, 96.9472552882887, 48.64346941621373, 62.79650633078466, 57.20633922652139, 69.04088930856398, 50.5716237088457, 153.27596635341098, 34.20774560345776, 98.87875812559157, 56.513941754727725, 70.23830019831993, 120.84650627940562, 58.318147140017786, 97.94297879755709, 70.17842032756583, 63.9235215294405, 50.2428286485263, 65.95906254480283, 32.19284831890637, 186.56665692650964, 47.92209172204096, 48.04086635626123, 43.140928244137285, 202.1976160572245, 60.35353960690217 ], "mse": [ 3448.1066131160665, 6282.676411101253, 2984.1300768304227, 2191.1542254690808, 142487.51795602075, 4549.20982109375, 2189.646917977381, 13714.716965486119, 4397.480842588098, 9488.468967030127, 6144.898069105883, 7966.073714995399, 3553.005367209154, 33845.28907536577, 1797.589665723603, 17662.037521794406, 7072.913105907154, 6318.847442799035, 22676.9735195139, 5298.917485057853, 13207.185370445322, 7160.964098132003, 7499.854433462994, 3239.2219021985406, 6427.899239623763, 1823.7427822870936, 42057.27926401038, 4555.769541374446, 3122.6384213264932, 2875.647836318242, 50676.939874320386, 6516.261112264492 ], "var": [ 2128.491516947462, 4933.774502763829, 2487.822094657394, 2464.8019806364237, 4101.677146620158, 2188.6943500154457, 2695.8972948405985, 2284.3709189811416, 1964.5400366889983, 2489.2586407276217, 2926.9403663348644, 3139.225065968998, 1923.108308338503, 2844.6410909846772, 2564.960458844766, 1728.6900795166732, 2973.3225589598965, 2078.952936777393, 2684.884224201169, 2583.6354543562484, 3030.4671423145687, 2340.10158040682, 5697.583263650295, 1637.718672101137, 2796.859339975843, 2391.2648374526893, 5354.300419744373, 2326.724170435843, 2012.8610954695284, 2691.307940775092, 3994.7085959435303, 2014.8410793007606 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 62.687566996122385, "crpss": -0.048553489701650854, "rps": 0.4531109449011051, "rpss": -0.0023067024599905395, "mean_bias_mm": -47.984197233680774, "mean_mae_mm": 80.3561951277192, "mean_rmse_mm": 119.01064259656957, "spread_error_ratio": 0.44431761147323606, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.6884335059383735, "pit_histogram": [ 0.11948, 0.0696, 0.06083, 0.06099, 0.06306, 0.06168, 0.06263, 0.07046, 0.10178, 0.32949 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.5015006483751081 } }, "distribution_full": { "ethiopia": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 0.8569154540555749, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.30148986236109687 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 0.6906355474958968, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.4521373414331665 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9280146400499178, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.43542594662503453 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9254331234186957, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.30073993970279794 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 0.8147824965741438, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.32877011624522073 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": 0.0 } }, "ondj_domain": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 0.7683401201441115, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.30165503176514236 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 0.49724287981319465, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.678767198971231 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0199618031523265, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.3938110540614654 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 0.849302364718445, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.26828703713604407 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 0.6772258302130896, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.40369637165644945 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": 0.0 } } } }, "ls": { "training": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 32.254958966739764, 32.507962635200094, 28.889434286783334, 28.143487503762394, 180.09546795977997, 35.813204444182205, 34.50704414400438, 42.801386605436264, 18.91918179113128, 28.011122402838982, 25.23230836260912, 23.466261597285786, 37.400578607095724, 57.60250173601096, 40.183293031324915, 46.72184029931278, 29.21553294084104, 63.89199289597176, 40.65269294854096, 26.678857131825502, 34.04519220948185, 30.95448413457692, 29.58936276083172, 30.248746756467508 ], "crps_clim": [ 29.83323453860368, 38.88077881844172, 26.1795875687868, 36.08822373966346, 249.9992360568139, 38.426875463916396, 39.04498825040786, 38.65484959473932, 21.062619481737414, 26.341700917326186, 23.043072155361166, 23.761208131674348, 35.758076339617475, 65.51443181552213, 28.07427178189838, 41.19686340465451, 28.3419383709928, 45.95970122915301, 42.821914300357065, 27.103313627542445, 35.0043497136804, 30.34929072242817, 36.1179019010588, 32.50133398998652 ], "rps": [ 0.48334347572484043, 0.36744079666458324, 0.4804516207881083, 0.41122390906249906, 0.139529404892379, 0.4556268191901823, 0.42755251488749973, 0.5353081715103516, 0.3588974241192579, 0.42284360773723173, 0.4283557899104042, 0.3786293307558348, 0.5103446455581454, 0.392520436749144, 0.6127762874151064, 0.5404066933260143, 0.39779110717379096, 0.7452102821615154, 0.41920385171118646, 0.4001663702914568, 0.411612424165026, 0.4735146529820001, 0.35490663302726155, 0.4584182584409323 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.43952109738446665, 0.4701037173237654, 0.4169699152477682, 0.47870260421034994, 0.5456974480225605, 0.4718891921569669, 0.47528498795368085, 0.4682080375922366, 0.3831343617912619, 0.4088195337833923, 0.40159350714274034, 0.3947124470194672, 0.4905254609590217, 0.4972930221700924, 0.4454260522581055, 0.4580123165551393, 0.4122169895751251, 0.5190225120513517, 0.4587331615402525, 0.4177409087656852, 0.44718476038056587, 0.4632550515537808, 0.44214926963850176, 0.47013731210450704 ], "bias": [ 22.891796240916502, 28.96207138324628, 26.92610675020749, 38.04055028377706, -214.72268918387383, 3.621691679571084, -4.620101449445999, -49.335160222961775, 7.653512972925062, 24.837151459742238, 21.96100962639975, -13.762474101113304, 56.32485082622639, -74.58426407446562, 60.911421838585404, -50.22579285943291, 10.3909366603205, 92.86389666881401, -9.84779852421818, 22.54602913251148, -35.579898680977585, -29.106883533297882, 26.50154004403847, 33.78897801735834 ], "mae": [ 47.33123836430468, 51.3687318498187, 43.39447377815981, 45.23089037556988, 214.82483980283817, 52.54456673852691, 51.97245945481324, 56.990582427627366, 28.652524993482142, 45.817089852942686, 39.333744491239955, 31.175394001425545, 57.49744101281852, 77.63738027725802, 62.90140426926033, 60.856181443186756, 43.35525744715948, 93.1152399683238, 56.92922938274188, 40.723684104753666, 43.612423055294336, 42.17879049060963, 44.70682097280178, 45.88912119030831 ], "mse": [ 3510.4129472721447, 4506.525872806216, 3043.414460581396, 2929.205042226607, 65100.95155089742, 4201.189695765646, 4595.27541628713, 4867.135733662265, 1285.1673475516134, 3336.4298235629644, 2543.420005481583, 1656.258562732727, 4983.962025050423, 11314.794859184414, 6223.401967521905, 6695.4763244068145, 2997.210674857864, 12538.757819497087, 6247.813786352902, 2821.591008970434, 3322.8866219524366, 2823.6097532928, 3335.4890640998156, 3147.2995979812827 ], "var": [ 3963.6455988967136, 6573.971115530542, 3895.4057783175376, 3782.2829800666186, 5449.56552822706, 3079.2870732341194, 4536.4624480118255, 3760.779007425207, 2760.8332933247143, 5501.756466217518, 5215.254206329605, 4435.864625747656, 3067.0465963087813, 4122.745946648475, 3671.9269556289087, 2336.4970396125095, 5079.384659163321, 4541.039461395652, 4373.865400811923, 3745.21074893749, 4736.639501995564, 4170.694436289263, 6683.665099558253, 2700.650285309961 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 40.74278733966813, "crpss": 0.059835855631777624, "rps": 0.4419197711768647, "rpss": 0.024848369607447518, "mean_bias_mm": -0.14847996021445908, "mean_mae_mm": 57.41831290605273, "mean_rmse_mm": 83.67289484504423, "spread_error_ratio": 0.7798337770876264, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.3059627999672961, "pit_histogram": [ 0.14932, 0.10058, 0.10014, 0.09546, 0.08701, 0.08419, 0.08193, 0.08719, 0.08452, 0.12966 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.15939837158982004 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 45.53541396404894, 37.942424636535854, 28.920440658908074, 34.07203490581578, 261.21859650928315, 44.453958676084355, 26.911774423749545, 47.66557720721158, 22.84555303474872, 25.046438863036986, 25.19979400795179, 30.777482738670624, 55.71858519679562, 83.96464887874588, 39.175053371072266, 46.67014197676642, 33.246833668516544, 85.27442576181832, 67.2143447481959, 25.72055683654722, 48.235896590528284, 33.04689066434936, 35.67421454753346, 46.023045798293936 ], "crps_clim": [ 42.28827155959033, 47.03475528721915, 28.118112914314686, 51.435856466268575, 352.79501684228853, 53.54974195536778, 38.362106175221676, 39.349051348043986, 27.402303306971245, 33.04226475208313, 26.16461609134499, 33.51963055426904, 51.74936172381692, 99.15164309867102, 30.1279091186148, 46.27450144046246, 27.396128860915656, 66.68806658106446, 71.89082190601232, 28.449906713101416, 50.156317986314725, 34.37176519545435, 56.19481769512508, 45.209077740680264 ], "rps": [ 0.5432053269225747, 0.29285121590104735, 0.42121279494157576, 0.37835046792791655, 0.07535097838794058, 0.42282819590691134, 0.32576499730826347, 0.5256410814259451, 0.3286489662541251, 0.26787178316249055, 0.34829214307299244, 0.35703785703475055, 0.5967128092312678, 0.33149006824138744, 0.4891828371401193, 0.4367929215647782, 0.40591234733931886, 0.7492088452037934, 0.3982304016346322, 0.2922469158437082, 0.41622864772539836, 0.43403965693788193, 0.16530792404414327, 0.5698985688492436 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4819055012071629, 0.444711644142145, 0.3912256783048537, 0.5314847003061296, 0.5463137996219283, 0.5246370496095673, 0.46799085581035055, 0.43018330198082794, 0.37903088404294777, 0.37602959074729786, 0.3657108710730794, 0.4071905831264576, 0.5346883545994874, 0.5378418884618463, 0.397580420764294, 0.42189702270560003, 0.35631035559982877, 0.5447213136522713, 0.4681166143725515, 0.3573140603557788, 0.4646548705590716, 0.44355045410047106, 0.4892057906870231, 0.5235515159121176 ], "bias": [ 67.31688779344303, 16.619262253239505, 38.99510379223281, 56.87148006690063, -303.0930170959587, 61.80681858467042, 41.98008589577162, -57.39820862627406, 8.41924080626224, -8.130370391551747, 5.590507978471748, -25.08741817947819, 83.39847999958006, -111.49989321760347, 60.09301409554926, -57.8412931576431, 32.841346495502954, 117.10316408979062, -75.04991259556436, 19.936943964801873, -55.35340313358501, -25.39390698456858, 32.47588844983246, 67.43145773901287 ], "mae": [ 69.22141533039725, 56.81708800758221, 43.90030026237717, 58.17917061123654, 303.0930170959587, 69.0375002729101, 46.47700971856499, 63.38400137594019, 33.827589775402735, 36.10739147949147, 37.44601517155259, 41.131631390877395, 83.39847999958006, 111.7895225601204, 62.827968556755266, 61.8311955756862, 56.64955826263186, 117.10316408979062, 85.736820300976, 38.025211452199066, 60.69001470359069, 48.05361637994358, 53.330031737645015, 68.73566467234286 ], "mse": [ 6046.278060930654, 5446.119364532073, 2631.103461913177, 4072.8755491471707, 104252.71626060312, 5751.57600015214, 3072.2553277842853, 5805.896857625242, 1771.6756944490228, 2478.3624097897755, 2015.909408427957, 2732.102389274538, 8016.789539040603, 18431.1521027566, 6260.9907614013655, 7872.635341270167, 4381.46777647002, 17080.172889227793, 12012.29035490628, 2217.900604779239, 5601.724140311979, 3236.3068399030394, 4529.234374978934, 5533.164584109426 ], "var": [ 3953.87617356697, 9717.024500401487, 4879.501620721558, 4478.23276085222, 6738.299950858793, 4107.613106386479, 5156.38675120211, 4259.93377371241, 3523.972571297364, 4832.069069902214, 5234.296669312534, 5668.185969897114, 3619.7859081841666, 5143.394878194558, 4828.959104234722, 3197.629018063718, 5559.594732821172, 4162.181546449744, 5047.329284518546, 5142.415325829351, 5744.868730420423, 4543.175384911952, 11675.660909116787, 3153.5477101259453 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 51.27308865271703, "crpss": 0.10876042586394874, "rps": 0.3988461563334253, "rpss": 0.12066487385416758, "mean_bias_mm": -0.3319892240485463, "mean_mae_mm": 71.11639078264804, "mean_rmse_mm": 100.26022393705139, "spread_error_ratio": 0.7179925224929999, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.49933509660169956, "pit_histogram": [ 0.19694, 0.10306, 0.09825, 0.09417, 0.08126, 0.06976, 0.06694, 0.063, 0.08291, 0.14373 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.28744643519858676 } }, "operational": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 24.269332855924326, 23.596047284807717, 88.18667841603285, 19.506384435943698, 33.03572933030612, 26.270991641658238, 82.18510757264168, 48.634102763109446 ], "crps_clim": [ 24.186278935163696, 25.3510236438784, 115.19291638908858, 23.883905041341485, 31.83506561734916, 24.11958582957673, 108.55164002965007, 36.322116319494704 ], "rps": [ 0.3995461020487279, 0.4288014451307908, 0.38158207578122755, 0.3356065277515188, 0.5148126014373112, 0.424697589417251, 0.3220623902635353, 0.6449391796040507 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.41765960837363175, 0.4211483967453936, 0.5533032169639418, 0.44730768376472113, 0.4625683819363159, 0.41678104776399905, 0.5158924087479178, 0.42890010225976694 ], "bias": [ 1.8562482320375016, -1.2590551030073434, -116.07679805427583, 11.896786800401165, 11.702776647224258, 29.70140136304532, -91.46201636194841, -53.6880727087604 ], "mae": [ 33.486276921815055, 32.584953491, 117.1833971129898, 27.796107591408685, 47.97487717914701, 41.63486792721164, 106.93123639424007, 62.50349296828725 ], "mse": [ 1787.3484567669866, 1772.2253073823836, 17995.31354801257, 1341.5768262892154, 3340.41048230722, 2673.8147350118375, 19013.629926737103, 6661.226961643374 ], "var": [ 3990.060723740226, 3566.290544848711, 6736.071170205013, 3748.9682792475974, 2773.6513995263235, 5002.375464973042, 5647.096185745812, 3212.931393864255 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 43.210546787553014, "crpss": 0.11236101332395854, "rps": 0.4315059889293017, "rpss": 0.05773424926738402, "mean_bias_mm": -25.91609114816047, "mean_mae_mm": 58.761901198262436, "mean_rmse_mm": 82.60262272179277, "spread_error_ratio": 0.7970484406485799, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.4120818163173928, "pit_histogram": [ 0.06368, 0.07242, 0.07772, 0.08635, 0.09344, 0.08934, 0.08796, 0.09553, 0.11302, 0.22054 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.26710985094891126 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 26.172472573863054, 21.255886472797975, 94.80014966916222, 24.258267382045602, 41.65541543627883, 32.69468488173197, 115.34962509549622, 26.197379680696283 ], "crps_clim": [ 27.513828107781922, 30.99293899368493, 161.45686691829505, 27.920571148564072, 44.378057761090616, 29.766973014786096, 175.6320250314755, 25.22282617443876 ], "rps": [ 0.3536787327676319, 0.29758672964756383, 0.09618693661288469, 0.3751254985448162, 0.4852099615605061, 0.4814453195505618, 0.09066767172929004, 0.379156294830675 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.37168677457254995, 0.40830736189644173, 0.5514955486398806, 0.4122454653654102, 0.5073582603125171, 0.4229682694777741, 0.5480141318493015, 0.3433109764761434 ], "bias": [ -17.633258543397076, 26.410327075252344, -124.01183996127742, 19.922627059966636, 65.28542251253403, 50.51004940384083, -141.01210849423424, -14.281507131115424 ], "mae": [ 33.07407127110661, 32.27382309955018, 126.8090420784107, 36.25021045330509, 66.12063537574106, 52.551977486759206, 146.85939636203895, 34.7580297331524 ], "mse": [ 1655.9683317498893, 1472.5110230226896, 19443.134408031216, 1850.4777375430554, 5094.895416051174, 3957.648088600282, 28882.5078256362, 1992.5272189509192 ], "var": [ 5051.190049817769, 4296.614271680212, 10306.020367682602, 4388.077610394948, 3592.557521212676, 4953.090046306629, 7367.727946012135, 3837.6284727071184 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 47.79798514900902, "crpss": 0.26870239391643225, "rps": 0.3198821431554912, "rpss": 0.282249781865618, "mean_bias_mm": -16.851286009803793, "mean_mae_mm": 66.08714823250803, "mean_rmse_mm": 89.68672564096751, "spread_error_ratio": 0.8249520796256846, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.8755372511262273, "pit_histogram": [ 0.1171, 0.11182, 0.09698, 0.08481, 0.08301, 0.08315, 0.08362, 0.08929, 0.07934, 0.17087 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.19959291496895315 } }, "full": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 32.295016409332646, 33.49981686368183, 31.661943909941684, 30.49207160943625, 166.70214521732154, 34.17719234286468, 33.269526766655744, 39.52358405877679, 19.063351289885194, 30.727295647813094, 28.34624168516005, 23.081181807861284, 40.76296574079248, 52.49263174002932, 44.13480122335815, 45.72571445286834, 30.579356714943284, 67.95117372987629, 41.443735707255314, 28.10899382321974, 31.324471260888775, 27.14754998922245, 30.820208326262783, 31.727661914085697, 24.052137621861394, 22.8365911037186, 84.81171498797384, 20.698285917636397, 33.21296645178287, 27.792494677984884, 79.36833859196591, 45.8527289764829 ], "crps_clim": [ 30.220473451764587, 39.917418564936064, 27.757568172072368, 37.802333372958124, 238.75051318915055, 37.61181929878509, 37.616082531632294, 37.23600638646016, 21.306686770765648, 28.4780000830409, 25.20476923730856, 24.600584384519205, 37.81772054414582, 61.83148106658277, 29.811614275645827, 41.56571447524313, 29.657529779748423, 47.67275462965923, 43.64083140619902, 27.6391470098042, 34.1009877354789, 28.817911129816427, 35.16768869621822, 33.87686011313925, 25.87047943593951, 26.437105491714817, 114.62794696826606, 26.4205712229385, 33.14461289262585, 24.563582570388807, 107.27766982133843, 35.50441102323164 ], "rps": [ 0.4841563153820552, 0.3738634346722963, 0.5104047544119551, 0.4361137232846099, 0.11680312948579263, 0.43819089844505427, 0.4318103397319516, 0.5046141422704813, 0.3538436475935478, 0.45053722011343433, 0.46236609793182776, 0.37544772665896836, 0.5496679716799834, 0.35176736131074443, 0.6579996688522936, 0.5351739934404867, 0.4073486953263904, 0.7880112290586772, 0.420057057788531, 0.4328230111493387, 0.37677100640379263, 0.42175387279984666, 0.34952900996981595, 0.4756261002087739, 0.38202602176149913, 0.392574235524708, 0.36169062194726903, 0.3426098549221947, 0.49772016541321284, 0.4351974146727958, 0.3069099661133291, 0.6023532548742718 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.42752784364987473, 0.47525412925412475, 0.4178646042147745, 0.4860452399955733, 0.5615292811104182, 0.4629144820543785, 0.4720919884684642, 0.46355275516950334, 0.3602950493837294, 0.41093548411809694, 0.39925120731108465, 0.3862724441100123, 0.4981591164438388, 0.48945929833950264, 0.4479384312130977, 0.4604687964566817, 0.402555507760245, 0.5325649512878922, 0.46103987989217676, 0.4197441009203777, 0.4304978343784619, 0.45092626124868035, 0.4260850230367853, 0.4774252618219362, 0.4145131464744774, 0.4091714328578628, 0.5607984489124369, 0.46414258203020875, 0.45688333757744265, 0.4028824114723692, 0.5188382677855484, 0.41855246264432233 ], "bias": [ 28.528428424831738, 35.915434627969624, 33.58044347538459, 43.752589771505384, -201.76218051370532, 9.613091026547282, 1.9355822958315376, -42.592349172053694, 14.06704146807592, 31.996321489806007, 28.87337182704798, -7.630324325209817, 62.068489852535144, -66.78737026178909, 67.66789395201243, -43.72655934135554, 16.822070207103444, 99.35338843827768, -3.0239465630219833, 29.475563499266176, -28.56163942287525, -22.391957330776805, 34.80137219531087, 39.06669866962271, 7.941608187810731, 4.255966651076964, -113.05389240007395, 17.76085696873129, 17.813210939903854, 38.09434574602237, -87.62047488351209, -49.77620320496869 ], "mae": [ 47.306274449235374, 53.0785251840867, 47.72821829132845, 48.90153539929648, 201.96390920583687, 50.61972804933836, 51.17429057676626, 53.236018832093414, 29.070105876547032, 51.29814000767133, 44.4600792621417, 30.954095468392183, 62.70921928311414, 71.13303891119922, 68.79213980067965, 60.09198531133151, 45.69534125239417, 99.35680940705765, 59.44301408555667, 43.34441351494429, 39.69054913196931, 36.493679966531694, 47.22681526422074, 47.940967494289225, 33.29166601525936, 31.771751243987694, 114.0604270081626, 30.859046058810886, 48.50403153180984, 45.1385578438425, 104.16428310567096, 59.494216445694995 ], "mse": [ 3578.193751630388, 4722.554321028154, 3577.3506758491553, 3393.9962339638246, 59276.82366519144, 3973.5063438681113, 4322.534390596303, 4326.9826533392625, 1302.2597346143746, 4069.2328315720574, 3282.9246278705928, 1627.483904462212, 5775.437911548446, 10021.225719767974, 7207.014714534421, 6485.6836067912, 3231.2432982167597, 13721.589020665897, 6471.362266338213, 2989.499054951354, 2838.8885762817376, 2216.8482377922396, 3636.4257990443148, 3485.873381675217, 1806.6895456249804, 1623.5321519493066, 17012.310319438056, 1523.69936378082, 3465.4506766543786, 2943.3564974857104, 18151.013440652147, 6009.794459673164 ], "var": [ 4307.562937493147, 7008.111389316765, 4195.874481224972, 4076.103381269034, 6095.586204324741, 3328.347066599407, 4904.714283133989, 4049.4799832095346, 2989.1260751197774, 5990.231083223122, 5668.664212074534, 4802.679101037103, 3293.9926733868274, 4503.6197159405765, 3935.7235065348295, 2529.4800907881604, 5460.730961546359, 4904.456851470215, 4752.286089137573, 4022.1654814368935, 5122.72549265082, 4485.68719920658, 7107.814102158364, 2907.7993375649467, 4312.390513248039, 3864.14015601305, 6919.6425203366925, 4062.1705498379774, 2998.23288644714, 5502.315362336212, 5892.243257918162, 3405.0182149753437 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 41.05262158002938, "crpss": 0.08259022872598154, "rps": 0.43830506072499775, "rpss": 0.03044473979174711, "mean_bias_mm": -0.11072274077089261, "mean_mae_mm": 58.09352728997692, "mean_rmse_mm": 82.55126838381487, "spread_error_ratio": 0.8221455275220969, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.3253431860992235, "pit_histogram": [ 0.14271, 0.1031, 0.10119, 0.0968, 0.09073, 0.08524, 0.08323, 0.08485, 0.08435, 0.1278 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.14959493015935646 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 47.6164358745574, 36.81571238300418, 30.519242300911994, 35.744397858593125, 246.90856893545381, 46.525997771109765, 28.074668517649414, 45.06420516265925, 22.739181747077314, 25.777806886061793, 26.104726847914332, 30.147856765574225, 57.982390759623, 78.52041525777709, 40.448213186251834, 44.59304471263596, 34.66311212918949, 87.31171938708806, 64.09435019811849, 26.862776376499838, 45.07861107664161, 30.738498444078413, 37.26777182231394, 48.46217810140566, 25.693852807198446, 22.584783085415054, 93.59048777426672, 26.315988056301542, 45.361969490405535, 35.33677616069606, 115.29344305702806, 25.59729682261366 ], "crps_clim": [ 43.05674508597644, 47.02174056492448, 28.84873411344585, 52.31210697339705, 337.83045973804184, 54.55256595155876, 38.94875701090369, 39.57782058741483, 27.74569141249191, 34.126369417367485, 27.450347808492733, 34.017006869578225, 52.72584373838084, 95.1322901374424, 31.016202641442625, 46.77726687336443, 28.68599867750331, 67.63450525795584, 70.45970873133518, 29.076021275933627, 49.86214141911897, 34.70899724260007, 55.60856424824002, 45.9400310845385, 29.402894877394107, 33.32071549456562, 163.04105609314394, 29.873009959301736, 48.200340322444724, 32.07710679517107, 177.18917611869378, 26.893576505878865 ], "rps": [ 0.5954930155500605, 0.2825170898895107, 0.4448623443091516, 0.4072713664278376, 0.05910995404533023, 0.47043476413934476, 0.3631968676810891, 0.4927774096234965, 0.32715871801274465, 0.2827933572511066, 0.37878929042543025, 0.3592616922360246, 0.642051875631847, 0.301454771820754, 0.505744574832747, 0.4079028341542112, 0.4100610826769523, 0.7952299850127569, 0.3579630196885545, 0.30026002087825315, 0.3790678512719155, 0.3946238206628662, 0.16562525363105837, 0.6162777624193322, 0.3477464833605766, 0.2926357884436342, 0.08279795252548866, 0.4030344994260525, 0.5186458675688448, 0.49699194167355737, 0.07738770046388466, 0.33935364189918255 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4903301532167852, 0.44204091246608007, 0.3821454984532625, 0.5431907333012903, 0.5629552549427677, 0.538931603827915, 0.47718465303177104, 0.4269517164665013, 0.3648511299187768, 0.3588689197908303, 0.356723031227705, 0.4013877968759663, 0.5457092532164318, 0.5530781005304259, 0.3883080341726342, 0.41667877142632664, 0.33834680801777955, 0.5610985777523381, 0.4668682110446354, 0.34014334800184304, 0.464044269131601, 0.43822125796975975, 0.5000883325693602, 0.5339534977340119, 0.3734059025504393, 0.40314128440280195, 0.5592508943098848, 0.414709381099934, 0.516605453040115, 0.4212120203974677, 0.5555451413875876, 0.33021111911934736 ], "bias": [ 70.6827210839086, 22.002737118329307, 42.55269343851442, 59.742595228765765, -290.7661266065624, 64.71225893746731, 44.9127352129467, -53.41274809923248, 12.043840621682325, -3.43273583214503, 9.544977695058236, -20.58223154749605, 86.38156830058969, -105.27887427952037, 63.72698556002615, -53.64467071349997, 37.359927872002444, 119.67049382286639, -69.92525854832715, 24.44292085959161, -50.62104625147514, -21.181168578965305, 38.821172736355955, 70.65472656359717, -14.191761849721079, 30.64117122592859, -123.24715098957503, 24.188851188561383, 70.6825958196759, 56.031214816150346, -141.22946590508474, -11.294690905336198 ], "mae": [ 72.34904530781286, 55.47192064577376, 46.68949831240681, 61.004910406509005, 290.7661266065624, 72.15998886098387, 48.80117252104078, 60.32772315608116, 33.73673487528832, 38.026424450522455, 39.091851464151, 40.564565457469456, 86.38156830058969, 105.80734464723804, 65.74081013059833, 58.89832661185799, 59.323748327281756, 119.67049382286639, 82.22077661991669, 40.10160545527221, 57.132390756618726, 44.67189566295037, 56.73454166651775, 71.74774306023573, 31.710153621083318, 35.046770361722665, 125.77661124327405, 40.2386658323439, 71.38844389868531, 57.25545926100917, 146.70178183306217, 33.912596753967435 ], "mse": [ 6516.26128809386, 5245.644982363711, 2882.6022296207216, 4442.002612541332, 96254.55600876376, 6214.730095785743, 3297.0695835931383, 5349.628604690142, 1754.7764127567693, 2534.567925983677, 2144.2673475315696, 2625.290827778722, 8548.82771415751, 16963.71337354679, 6573.108763614551, 7563.37674098582, 4671.241685993777, 17493.47429640815, 11266.596981958988, 2415.8097826964167, 5052.663256976054, 2919.4030735491124, 4989.449908995779, 6050.5880326138185, 1563.3393383193336, 1677.2791971169759, 19054.96928778831, 2219.931084739511, 5896.76984686496, 4499.500021753844, 28879.12365802984, 1894.2009507958917 ], "var": [ 4109.80969896763, 10071.111153453803, 5052.513904184438, 4658.305906568268, 7340.209801664079, 4262.986494306215, 5324.95178093854, 4448.18386625801, 3692.037409405878, 5068.603238790439, 5457.248399509729, 5939.6814744099875, 3729.8810290186257, 5474.752959360616, 5033.108857396556, 3342.265809935129, 5811.143228207963, 4252.875765132012, 5308.2706336550455, 5347.254814809901, 5994.226166276147, 4714.547897060577, 12204.11271446699, 3268.0259526427562, 5270.783996615675, 4538.652540940537, 10378.445098435148, 4584.108076758296, 3830.2641476062363, 5234.020056401283, 7380.529671737035, 3979.7843846324513 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 50.2448899923786, "crpss": 0.15957091229201803, "rps": 0.3843288311760499, "rpss": 0.14984317246972456, "mean_bias_mm": -0.3128669376538342, "mean_mae_mm": 70.29536531036544, "mean_rmse_mm": 96.73655670757445, "spread_error_ratio": 0.7646818877026774, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.6236338291894069, "pit_histogram": [ 0.18854, 0.10895, 0.10211, 0.0914, 0.08094, 0.07215, 0.07108, 0.06754, 0.07983, 0.13746 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.27411807014416856 } }, "distribution_full": { "ethiopia": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9997342360801955, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.0012135161012385859 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 0.8351979168730684, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.2915726288240848 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 1.026076980223544, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.2803105497855653 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0552995644906393, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.09205586684469286 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9827285017163886, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.12244199536433976 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": 0.0 } }, "ondj_domain": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9982426552496718, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.002001671202576552 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 0.6492726316074986, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.4247187025002195 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 1.3616790645817138, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.36506515872875056 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 1.11151934164851, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.12395983405513349 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 0.8915161801369466, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.14409897475630187 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": 0.0 } } } }, "mvs": { "training": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 30.531857385990378, 33.843582068714575, 28.6487630179844, 25.36878494474262, 174.64870899584736, 31.17431082941691, 34.10642387287894, 46.15854168603851, 19.791233442096292, 30.00106268488266, 27.208439998195335, 26.76159569832826, 32.90534456372967, 52.449957550067694, 40.496718716771326, 48.65105625021036, 31.56824909330654, 59.446732417505395, 39.273491495632584, 27.628925611672805, 35.13950793077734, 32.57886645083919, 36.33360559667595, 26.639798150132137 ], "crps_clim": [ 29.83323453860368, 38.88077881844172, 26.1795875687868, 36.08822373966346, 249.9992360568139, 38.426875463916396, 39.04498825040786, 38.65484959473932, 21.062619481737414, 26.341700917326186, 23.043072155361166, 23.761208131674348, 35.758076339617475, 65.51443181552213, 28.07427178189838, 41.19686340465451, 28.3419383709928, 45.95970122915301, 42.821914300357065, 27.103313627542445, 35.0043497136804, 30.34929072242817, 36.1179019010588, 32.50133398998652 ], "rps": [ 0.4619048252612722, 0.3638526506731422, 0.4679565846539752, 0.36903248950957834, 0.13867675209503563, 0.41137876326224293, 0.4103134470873498, 0.5743787342846051, 0.3649640054870902, 0.4343743166810926, 0.4401606457979708, 0.41034846102358125, 0.4617396757929526, 0.3952364103546097, 0.6115637708026278, 0.5700559681566636, 0.4107452205161078, 0.6885819187623162, 0.41403338673159273, 0.4016871646589293, 0.4302058447642066, 0.4965170088414531, 0.35578046263449925, 0.4071632353754976 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.43952109738446665, 0.4701037173237654, 0.4169699152477682, 0.47870260421034994, 0.5456974480225605, 0.4718891921569669, 0.47528498795368085, 0.4682080375922366, 0.3831343617912619, 0.4088195337833923, 0.40159350714274034, 0.3947124470194672, 0.4905254609590217, 0.4972930221700924, 0.4454260522581055, 0.4580123165551393, 0.4122169895751251, 0.5190225120513517, 0.4587331615402525, 0.4177409087656852, 0.44718476038056587, 0.4632550515537808, 0.44214926963850176, 0.47013731210450704 ], "bias": [ 19.234398996076216, 37.08300028158947, 24.670865534925998, 31.72904655992102, -211.5262393644756, -1.5193338427662584, -10.218710882664642, -54.38771386891668, 3.510676231954186, 27.492751413687177, 20.763864499651497, -16.327867454479577, 52.9614979653314, -71.61999257180267, 61.83305181198933, -55.3516347455777, 14.541694984178454, 93.04684541486257, -10.468805478965779, 25.348283703426457, -36.437696617606804, -31.377261473361987, 44.99540068420282, 29.058012008604123 ], "mae": [ 46.38156215460874, 52.909121914592184, 42.01064204041019, 39.739605070432596, 211.55274438829593, 48.28413155518833, 48.16713584239413, 60.44124806982888, 27.34606544546708, 47.17785405033245, 40.27895583738098, 32.427306949236225, 54.289012627094756, 74.90027751153691, 63.82185174292367, 64.81483887894446, 47.195114875169835, 93.30387334168415, 56.53521044763808, 42.25265871032875, 44.26740474432827, 43.74107196886305, 56.83576394292339, 42.98556528972792 ], "mse": [ 3303.923340489077, 4731.847226141909, 2957.8342094488194, 2312.2747299840403, 61662.83265833768, 3635.4722315026142, 4263.730387378272, 5379.2098796268865, 1188.3082434003863, 3480.265367134544, 2650.5139164398897, 1807.3924104551984, 4530.72577228972, 10752.721444730076, 6537.787369481945, 7375.102143491913, 3487.14243767352, 12990.85933440583, 6207.080219193063, 3013.029471061743, 3412.121924156873, 3004.628904815044, 5275.820822116842, 2757.0811194005196 ], "var": [ 6077.741240704872, 10289.718611393904, 5797.488709265191, 5698.833111638285, 5652.20094621443, 4766.435809307398, 6743.972319963838, 5881.245183459705, 4334.870463041644, 7980.781891619073, 7895.218243401078, 7123.889759195568, 4396.1867864370915, 6356.303356332933, 5603.579994343953, 3573.842959754469, 8058.537127986216, 6164.54698742512, 6531.221775862797, 5622.495430160672, 7316.667867162407, 6265.9572030134195, 10723.053769139855, 4104.989897213095 ], "zero": [ 0.02088828721661557, 0.005561263617652794, 0.012371778370385162, 0.04168046510033036, 0.000908575980095313, 0.032796742565493794, 0.055180611159339636, 0.034598232094621324, 0.01884353688261483, 0.006431705650150713, 0.013391310695160922, 0.02767390483225661, 0.017798531302660733, 0.00822883212303127, 0.007889166866389914, 0.026878558786804625, 0.0052128155339802185, 0.01232420365706725, 0.010264153289479473, 0.006609644647966125, 0.016684114079617805, 0.013537006541613572, 0.0025657434788875968, 0.011570598877512571 ] }, "crps": 40.47314826885155, "crpss": 0.06605793818565564, "rps": 0.4371104893003497, "rpss": 0.035460655748010494, "mean_bias_mm": -0.5402444254257072, "mean_mae_mm": 57.56912572497213, "mean_rmse_mm": 83.34609208074195, "spread_error_ratio": 0.9578505699552784, "zero_fraction": 0.017078740972905338, "correlation": 0.2696612478008946, "pit_histogram": [ 0.08382, 0.10509, 0.11319, 0.11207, 0.10796, 0.09923, 0.09294, 0.09335, 0.08361, 0.10872 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.0940863202554797 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 38.70268082371093, 41.16627802104718, 28.116439724832297, 27.922814812846045, 235.98219429113556, 32.979317122719124, 26.00902597224129, 54.243506972868374, 24.35453116940529, 28.442602735107087, 28.784671822980897, 35.92265125259773, 45.29603687783914, 73.53114140185568, 40.252672204680366, 50.472560715491745, 37.338107878441036, 74.18233608495954, 65.10720359667975, 28.619528601518603, 49.81180071365986, 36.30657654337879, 49.49195850227782, 36.697145136778545 ], "crps_clim": [ 42.28827155959033, 47.03475528721915, 28.118112914314686, 51.435856466268575, 352.79501684228853, 53.54974195536778, 38.362106175221676, 39.349051348043986, 27.402303306971245, 33.04226475208313, 26.16461609134499, 33.51963055426904, 51.74936172381692, 99.15164309867102, 30.1279091186148, 46.27450144046246, 27.396128860915656, 66.68806658106446, 71.89082190601232, 28.449906713101416, 50.156317986314725, 34.37176519545435, 56.19481769512508, 45.209077740680264 ], "rps": [ 0.4589969200065319, 0.2972836778182183, 0.3869780875681717, 0.2998703013373785, 0.06870315619443898, 0.31645656797616284, 0.28534810437224434, 0.6172715151361355, 0.33976432964690556, 0.2968016556353165, 0.3686813280675747, 0.4075812851721877, 0.48915805828096304, 0.3356190736170051, 0.4916301459597531, 0.49043473074246674, 0.41645109860256047, 0.6215802403449849, 0.42129315248317356, 0.30892738105399226, 0.44188445233221896, 0.4775723296341831, 0.16852790531695716, 0.451306065198879 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4819055012071629, 0.444711644142145, 0.3912256783048537, 0.5314847003061296, 0.5463137996219283, 0.5246370496095673, 0.46799085581035055, 0.43018330198082794, 0.37903088404294777, 0.37602959074729786, 0.3657108710730794, 0.4071905831264576, 0.5346883545994874, 0.5378418884618463, 0.397580420764294, 0.42189702270560003, 0.35631035559982877, 0.5447213136522713, 0.4681166143725515, 0.3573140603557788, 0.4646548705590716, 0.44355045410047106, 0.4892057906870231, 0.5235515159121176 ], "bias": [ 62.90669115570101, 35.25061695936175, 33.821080318261245, 44.53136655164336, -284.52969462727646, 50.88759007987527, 28.435431766900663, -69.24243021383892, -0.6667159634640263, -3.889746516559404, 1.411778074384363, -27.54262292780128, 77.18963085747565, -104.31663216709036, 60.240896720785244, -66.84573119832781, 42.39957302313749, 113.13710212885, -76.08020001057218, 26.430203754373135, -57.23849436531781, -30.449009047331334, 70.55659483641956, 60.07262909878391 ], "mae": [ 65.21619180708817, 59.50455005047649, 40.082201933762306, 46.425661667179526, 284.52969462727646, 59.1988578229234, 37.78902579121668, 71.55042327743341, 30.839504546893274, 37.777158082235374, 38.783533552694145, 42.45565451174212, 77.18963085747565, 105.02269145117103, 63.085332809472895, 68.24925434331597, 65.71924417050552, 113.13710212885, 85.48780643432309, 41.59754480720451, 62.342998706731706, 51.68940459012374, 79.89523821584199, 61.82597376303203 ], "mse": [ 5393.16692700762, 5741.461710570864, 2320.528889271095, 2711.0998463809533, 92795.00384251412, 4372.625214307966, 2398.687172193253, 7047.355489623609, 1542.358580487455, 2534.635122745699, 2186.8294475974403, 2974.8198081324667, 7008.663698672191, 17073.460420000956, 6465.5640999114585, 8715.998466209574, 5535.746794663908, 16913.472973746066, 11983.353791233721, 2689.214567694576, 5820.0777444472005, 3643.1588790562523, 8543.36402866554, 4638.954554135696 ], "var": [ 6990.602120274148, 16616.50595612033, 8043.305777546306, 7765.698415149597, 8517.457894360727, 7058.095314421433, 8458.24654838242, 7372.647044597623, 6490.782154655109, 8304.386203875372, 9741.752127086667, 10347.893585359914, 6197.583770352911, 9112.730324507898, 8585.055937883486, 5511.692043551943, 10082.960434415296, 6669.249300400768, 8643.572940212594, 8628.904250154888, 9916.84476987568, 7701.610762191162, 20081.9805202935, 5449.8272554354335 ], "zero": [ 0.025724711611824734, 0.00354704660974215, 0.024146159898422934, 0.08057552568793509, 0.0, 0.06227657550978267, 0.0899134513332556, 0.061962876319207855, 0.03771096549285131, 0.00451478634919438, 0.02163895976649861, 0.040041869115455334, 0.03550349052050296, 0.007235458423494591, 0.017481922811127436, 0.03756311701406763, 0.0007674452344035825, 0.023816706033915908, 0.011551645234077848, 0.007363277020546277, 0.025398577025831825, 0.01845989165042207, 0.0053519117268911, 0.01260636074861547 ] }, "crps": 49.57224095746053, "crpss": 0.13832491701169158, "rps": 0.3857550651041001, "rpss": 0.14952677003827408, "mean_bias_mm": -0.5637538213177891, "mean_mae_mm": 70.39144499787373, "mean_rmse_mm": 98.11761693440296, "spread_error_ratio": 0.9585428399326537, "zero_fraction": 0.027298030464086142, "correlation": 0.48683676527129693, "pit_histogram": [ 0.0607, 0.10825, 0.12858, 0.13083, 0.12298, 0.09793, 0.08758, 0.07857, 0.08354, 0.10105 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.18338994109111323 } }, "operational": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 26.11020620258564, 24.4048418851067, 76.83147442957265, 20.395727040140223, 30.025164348051486, 26.640561130658472, 69.34312159779687, 51.83572938037115 ], "crps_clim": [ 24.186278935163696, 25.3510236438784, 115.19291638908858, 23.883905041341485, 31.83506561734916, 24.11958582957673, 108.55164002965007, 36.322116319494704 ], "rps": [ 0.41449030620074323, 0.4273282490408003, 0.3788077728809043, 0.3200434144248006, 0.4712657473520733, 0.4065078441436823, 0.3296243400335922, 0.6774017324041663 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.41765960837363175, 0.4211483967453936, 0.5533032169639418, 0.44730768376472113, 0.4625683819363159, 0.41678104776399905, 0.5158924087479178, 0.42890010225976694 ], "bias": [ 0.03460124216963481, -6.985262351890472, -103.3158423883065, 7.232687984373205, 7.447483401500149, 29.97611141526624, -77.08592487342926, -60.98776003377846 ], "mae": [ 34.72349262890965, 29.904823932603026, 104.8211630437046, 24.8350718178477, 44.39656451026317, 41.334241972744486, 94.68142756786848, 65.91467149060736 ], "mse": [ 1865.1870725963797, 1562.7312317707122, 15108.433100792021, 1145.1871426063178, 2910.788322857602, 2706.324842839813, 14987.320258144027, 7345.501625161779 ], "var": [ 6221.297998807101, 5407.853420149618, 10702.368508334599, 5669.581929103187, 4292.804583225619, 7467.721845053744, 9070.380579195647, 4794.902485350583 ], "zero": [ 0.02427568205433442, 0.031921372633051524, 0.01200877457297931, 0.037239696433402775, 0.028246890656276485, 0.01924859415284934, 0.0036578628326827934, 0.05074647981731943 ] }, "crps": 40.6983532517854, "crpss": 0.16396695423894836, "rps": 0.4281836758100953, "rpss": 0.06498907757974548, "mean_bias_mm": -25.46048820051194, "mean_mae_mm": 55.076432120568555, "mean_rmse_mm": 77.16174051689141, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0610708493007404, "zero_fraction": 0.025918169144112012, "correlation": 0.4126542385515528, "pit_histogram": [ 0.01581, 0.04942, 0.07662, 0.10121, 0.12389, 0.11868, 0.10543, 0.10653, 0.12504, 0.17737 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.3163017304657067 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 31.49636015432479, 22.084227393445556, 70.56447797537439, 25.425463674853848, 33.7257092676866, 31.794461173347983, 84.24801034216893, 31.521874680092413 ], "crps_clim": [ 27.513828107781922, 30.99293899368493, 161.45686691829505, 27.920571148564072, 44.378057761090616, 29.766973014786096, 175.6320250314755, 25.22282617443876 ], "rps": [ 0.39898737636042325, 0.29348160152319186, 0.09050970815765112, 0.34845297173137635, 0.37525938120995905, 0.42600906060236093, 0.08136901418248596, 0.43008706388711765 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.37168677457254995, 0.40830736189644173, 0.5514955486398806, 0.4122454653654102, 0.5073582603125171, 0.4229682694777741, 0.5480141318493015, 0.3433109764761434 ], "bias": [ -21.372919322234242, 16.72158546781009, -93.64485259887658, 12.783194799555858, 57.08281710166655, 47.60332677317807, -110.35943913106549, -26.85151619081071 ], "mae": [ 35.34459452901997, 25.60370806172786, 97.47320150330154, 31.513588624947168, 58.046468732620646, 50.123483969370646, 118.02243503482362, 38.46304123146716 ], "mse": [ 1859.0466138346032, 984.753157389643, 12602.026339444023, 1512.319028779696, 4092.386181932515, 3789.228892141256, 19360.014022470976, 2502.025734329385 ], "var": [ 8996.04432796265, 7561.558544722193, 17856.211618367484, 7622.428659174407, 6457.180842570107, 8658.047965302601, 13359.580378501349, 6420.751966632549 ], "zero": [ 0.044511506383367073, 0.06319365920712527, 0.003807111386032745, 0.03520389070248047, 0.0560045129315215, 0.030208168079663388, 0.0019038080272863645, 0.07026392928293969 ] }, "crps": 41.357573082661816, "crpss": 0.3672391400078956, "rps": 0.30551952220682077, "rpss": 0.3144765708235707, "mean_bias_mm": -14.754725387597055, "mean_mae_mm": 56.82381521090983, "mean_rmse_mm": 76.40500635619541, "spread_error_ratio": 1.2834712635108083, "zero_fraction": 0.038137073250052056, "correlation": 0.8764322811952895, "pit_histogram": [ 0.01252, 0.05891, 0.10399, 0.118, 0.13917, 0.14268, 0.12333, 0.12116, 0.09724, 0.08299 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.2966628570528559 } }, "full": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 29.862130964563836, 35.6084212120661, 31.06205877384511, 27.34446211623024, 154.50223580635242, 29.14707129990366, 32.513839047619314, 42.713223844195845, 19.629959185045568, 32.27552534927706, 29.924226927678852, 25.756722466506126, 36.24754556549361, 48.22648252025052, 44.51229249900665, 47.44191699651149, 32.16169091131603, 63.43066570617792, 40.4489307311305, 28.777064331094568, 32.42021566166245, 28.649234853192077, 36.8960472442853, 27.752073273207362, 26.008682515909026, 23.068308118069723, 73.7183311341252, 20.853323697809877, 29.615929039568897, 27.595868172762852, 66.4558992191219, 48.55391044912198 ], "crps_clim": [ 30.220473451764587, 39.917418564936064, 27.757568172072368, 37.802333372958124, 238.75051318915055, 37.61181929878509, 37.616082531632294, 37.23600638646016, 21.306686770765648, 28.4780000830409, 25.20476923730856, 24.600584384519205, 37.81772054414582, 61.83148106658277, 29.811614275645827, 41.56571447524313, 29.657529779748423, 47.67275462965923, 43.64083140619902, 27.6391470098042, 34.1009877354789, 28.817911129816427, 35.16768869621822, 33.87686011313925, 25.87047943593951, 26.437105491714817, 114.62794696826606, 26.4205712229385, 33.14461289262585, 24.563582570388807, 107.27766982133843, 35.50441102323164 ], "rps": [ 0.4502484720809384, 0.37869048418134416, 0.4965374968673654, 0.39287567853759314, 0.11722625811754653, 0.3811542696233554, 0.4048419850257272, 0.5428056633928174, 0.3632628427760581, 0.46440691828307035, 0.46787568168121735, 0.3973182463651115, 0.4988301313611609, 0.35482431801713427, 0.6606027484355058, 0.5571736738345682, 0.41035404626465866, 0.7365649995242037, 0.4215794119546208, 0.43670219017463746, 0.3935050776200331, 0.4439194852750374, 0.3487955804595638, 0.4195111185942654, 0.40263612539581917, 0.38636304225214313, 0.3585275122971393, 0.31931070961870134, 0.44474913089356827, 0.411486634657926, 0.3189879359151663, 0.634079456248932 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.42752784364987473, 0.47525412925412475, 0.4178646042147745, 0.4860452399955733, 0.5615292811104182, 0.4629144820543785, 0.4720919884684642, 0.46355275516950334, 0.3602950493837294, 0.41093548411809694, 0.39925120731108465, 0.3862724441100123, 0.4981591164438388, 0.48945929833950264, 0.4479384312130977, 0.4604687964566817, 0.402555507760245, 0.5325649512878922, 0.46103987989217676, 0.4197441009203777, 0.4304978343784619, 0.45092626124868035, 0.4260850230367853, 0.4774252618219362, 0.4145131464744774, 0.4091714328578628, 0.5607984489124369, 0.46414258203020875, 0.45688333757744265, 0.4028824114723692, 0.5188382677855484, 0.41855246264432233 ], "bias": [ 25.374346187530925, 43.77023835486165, 31.481680400461247, 38.01089791246071, -193.99688106665906, 5.155559104699259, -3.1012604709091396, -47.275453289820156, 10.251215386261288, 33.82925237742566, 27.540795931166283, -9.430296740091993, 59.055048320923525, -64.08565851947057, 68.17387039351242, -48.08369273427091, 20.60373207449049, 98.81719871570435, -3.4587808826762005, 31.981279494233377, -29.507698328389445, -24.582810392031778, 50.55823332023171, 35.100557520495364, 6.0803766846921805, -1.2151252504680636, -100.15498603238055, 13.757032259171952, 13.832154023316441, 37.97588469568294, -73.76537523419466, -56.65618998283199 ], "mae": [ 45.72754223124777, 55.12847984465525, 46.13500554157232, 43.7908272379037, 194.12279364428963, 46.0014525809569, 47.1719821087291, 56.27908526511503, 27.407901326888016, 52.16597243727473, 44.935447283237096, 31.65050476540096, 59.75169132810449, 68.59196273610584, 69.25694272746968, 63.27772490976612, 49.01019955544342, 98.82031437011626, 59.54409290439893, 44.73283472922798, 40.28950319201634, 37.973468930794446, 58.00262625749213, 45.13843368061201, 34.67606208890868, 28.711106139040282, 101.3912504201231, 28.12598376346016, 44.725134461489276, 44.730847332047574, 91.89372526530313, 62.041289652331784 ], "mse": [ 3292.287738430122, 4989.976590458242, 3473.401576808031, 2769.6142720635503, 53206.61824271033, 3335.635103649318, 3968.7122641079104, 4761.240227381622, 1171.7129109146188, 4153.39526435061, 3336.242793977117, 1720.5103786696518, 5352.413733010497, 9517.716768110913, 7463.997641426488, 6994.585761275284, 3692.36731306452, 13954.738171894473, 6515.513679416721, 3167.017514697531, 2921.694469033065, 2371.45553446809, 5439.102430520421, 3072.861423893264, 1884.8609823262498, 1388.4825538671753, 14091.627773306323, 1291.5859784134916, 2970.3723230141554, 2941.4279149868535, 14078.935882397538, 6543.054601495194 ], "var": [ 6049.806718937349, 10269.00639982346, 5787.859996776526, 5732.995740822918, 7069.333203776109, 4813.667779779953, 6828.622393676193, 5800.469046646862, 4379.9433020019915, 7910.1323034879715, 7841.248490752135, 7143.841090699215, 4413.908145549605, 6420.858088944343, 5629.273532385148, 3591.726592481262, 7942.638247235021, 6168.424439937852, 6523.528729172574, 5641.284085742127, 7281.188389606899, 6177.661352632059, 10554.159814193443, 4124.712270692333, 6306.01032122705, 5535.468225241629, 10433.745383423471, 5748.441999759031, 4318.918313851636, 7618.8177147661045, 8848.041971775825, 4847.093451539411 ], "zero": [ 0.014921524582085332, 0.002716316298066462, 0.010543893987544066, 0.035418392642944475, 0.0007736672322612852, 0.02696418830911465, 0.04563772822897817, 0.025700872798526977, 0.014930867004250175, 0.003885933585148672, 0.010121684848619243, 0.020261847855231514, 0.014562264073581849, 0.004535631255699332, 0.005891020477853239, 0.0203090279296478, 0.002583160288533941, 0.010224873814119143, 0.0065575732983412785, 0.005076575569733602, 0.013104159193318313, 0.008801497697798161, 0.002324101523463869, 0.0071089919501128055, 0.019753586102694544, 0.027248531311916107, 0.007706436264438483, 0.025667494057973098, 0.022834977198719318, 0.015063349887035305, 0.002629896220553807, 0.044245102196394985 ] }, "crps": 39.78669655103444, "crpss": 0.1108800661736653, "rps": 0.43174210392896656, "rpss": 0.044962366564265555, "mean_bias_mm": -0.12390174271477505, "mean_mae_mm": 56.91256839723506, "mean_rmse_mm": 80.20153517353552, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0046523422480993, "zero_fraction": 0.014940786490146876, "correlation": 0.3089694327482686, "pit_histogram": [ 0.08783, 0.10494, 0.11051, 0.10936, 0.11199, 0.09865, 0.09279, 0.09044, 0.0855, 0.10799 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.08956712242097704 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 40.48546251195116, 40.60331630293151, 29.05956194699152, 29.069572032033836, 207.63975787309, 34.40164852734014, 26.304385633076144, 51.42958846290474, 23.664628322915867, 29.06658804431235, 28.856241701671905, 35.24217446436858, 47.32287063812458, 69.97386784797185, 41.10837055834751, 48.45993566177319, 38.03631276989924, 75.82134032449582, 62.65891847350067, 29.20681407152632, 47.16420213397854, 34.356579253136154, 50.4896022470351, 38.597767557034096, 31.17139559674767, 22.618071260666834, 69.4534174973871, 26.414464893591372, 36.62316877534236, 33.388571159561515, 83.86163807952943, 30.49346687709689 ], "crps_clim": [ 43.05674508597644, 47.02174056492448, 28.84873411344585, 52.31210697339705, 337.83045973804184, 54.55256595155876, 38.94875701090369, 39.57782058741483, 27.74569141249191, 34.126369417367485, 27.450347808492733, 34.017006869578225, 52.72584373838084, 95.1322901374424, 31.016202641442625, 46.77726687336443, 28.68599867750331, 67.63450525795584, 70.45970873133518, 29.076021275933627, 49.86214141911897, 34.70899724260007, 55.60856424824002, 45.9400310845385, 29.402894877394107, 33.32071549456562, 163.04105609314394, 29.873009959301736, 48.200340322444724, 32.07710679517107, 177.18917611869378, 26.893576505878865 ], "rps": [ 0.4979522096098278, 0.2917270775147579, 0.40753271322029533, 0.31968559291960685, 0.05552026240160882, 0.3446429092309336, 0.3027433837308913, 0.5907107936416517, 0.33594079369972374, 0.30793824982396883, 0.38270751999923086, 0.4077205195910345, 0.5224866448522595, 0.31495626580064495, 0.5013140751408135, 0.46222188489232274, 0.4116389260898563, 0.6615009652002252, 0.3909192755789015, 0.31386291247810383, 0.41253438327319814, 0.4479359457774287, 0.16764461079008122, 0.4851501404435999, 0.3960163493947541, 0.28981765065432097, 0.08099846798617909, 0.3569662801816025, 0.39819375333100154, 0.42818538207371243, 0.07257202742095077, 0.3952307222043657 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4903301532167852, 0.44204091246608007, 0.3821454984532625, 0.5431907333012903, 0.5629552549427677, 0.538931603827915, 0.47718465303177104, 0.4269517164665013, 0.3648511299187768, 0.3588689197908303, 0.356723031227705, 0.4013877968759663, 0.5457092532164318, 0.5530781005304259, 0.3883080341726342, 0.41667877142632664, 0.33834680801777955, 0.5610985777523381, 0.4668682110446354, 0.34014334800184304, 0.464044269131601, 0.43822125796975975, 0.5000883325693602, 0.5339534977340119, 0.3734059025504393, 0.40314128440280195, 0.5592508943098848, 0.414709381099934, 0.516605453040115, 0.4212120203974677, 0.5555451413875876, 0.33021111911934736 ], "bias": [ 66.3402256713986, 39.11138187953732, 37.2365028130688, 48.02738354602104, -261.6156120762665, 54.019383225610554, 31.504430967910043, -64.99768326875179, 3.269091013160083, 0.29135340911951724, 5.434296402580269, -23.102446435123678, 80.17885994767077, -98.70248166890576, 63.294770567249465, -62.61531015843338, 46.25589628272392, 115.15059730798669, -71.43637508795689, 30.045797189048884, -52.86218392638928, -26.257455797614053, 73.16504558013847, 63.650123086196956, -18.343613641220518, 21.063465479309492, -92.856821676065, 16.78443684085544, 62.551833107711964, 52.77048509316129, -110.96958834012982, -24.331840561613078 ], "mae": [ 68.28714657901577, 58.863065672147535, 42.39064329751914, 49.822887409944556, 261.6156120762665, 62.192103812290995, 39.28646613845528, 67.74905347116128, 29.842575022307564, 39.96362880402819, 39.68517405219711, 41.91267252595285, 80.17885994767077, 99.73497547537575, 65.37868696599593, 64.74513411943602, 67.86699870749044, 115.15059730798669, 82.42500847062536, 43.28141808741122, 59.03338179073604, 48.35342595264896, 81.80024811394502, 64.87633759241126, 34.08339703104883, 27.78698943370666, 96.00284277144922, 34.88130995641326, 63.315491494796866, 54.27997762214093, 117.74692651908539, 36.88682725301497 ], "mse": [ 5844.36464422112, 5554.634583575046, 2519.6744956308858, 3077.748895520439, 79504.82418156623, 4730.7632881676145, 2544.1231645131124, 6413.819050111148, 1437.631272524182, 2623.773551127267, 2245.8865154701875, 2859.0424745899577, 7510.813123094221, 15799.894781383628, 6698.725313405983, 8309.83018140988, 5809.35141046731, 17099.90975498161, 11356.454389268303, 2872.853654385631, 5287.927367871735, 3293.0223093578184, 8966.583454025835, 5110.650787043384, 1759.538894246487, 1124.0407520658707, 12278.830226895534, 1776.58805521066, 4795.593903322916, 4229.371318989139, 19280.642518024433, 2331.667532674277 ], "var": [ 7039.94856307148, 16452.035461191062, 7970.041395025953, 7829.863135798327, 10922.492089895073, 7083.754582327866, 8413.73755267052, 7311.446447822948, 6550.761656966678, 8305.342105683367, 9681.348260848112, 10320.602486962354, 6234.033065350163, 9245.84551342725, 8617.580333284464, 5514.607012168211, 10086.585782813823, 6644.9174672818845, 8646.163391239377, 8562.86105420493, 9824.96382354295, 7626.749138593485, 19824.309436168936, 5482.55981299712, 9163.9822748896, 7675.98497968184, 17627.74290676713, 7654.5819403006, 6495.8317351672595, 8708.86123420431, 13046.632486525064, 6465.133081556303 ], "zero": [ 0.02447523348646677, 0.002157835960953502, 0.023450239482751753, 0.07326981871182607, 0.0, 0.058586901306238656, 0.08135341215485942, 0.051683491169029955, 0.03311931230738602, 0.00430702845857614, 0.01704677078571279, 0.035105794333054885, 0.03258010248892238, 0.0057063492458963696, 0.014420404980589697, 0.03200262805965124, 0.0004884222698761375, 0.022009152184422738, 0.008145229744767587, 0.006390510822058845, 0.023243689820369458, 0.015329111889160023, 0.005073273278009349, 0.010171883180512091, 0.041988586623244305, 0.05926934085146657, 0.0033991866108923985, 0.029037169051315957, 0.04826561764467783, 0.026656058051701285, 0.0015979925478374149, 0.06790733637573798 ] }, "crps": 46.65761567188544, "crpss": 0.21957402275733395, "rps": 0.36734277152962047, "rpss": 0.18741728455769735, "mean_bias_mm": 0.06418583662468258, "mean_mae_mm": 66.85687073358363, "mean_rmse_mm": 91.00971374068091, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0478692891100518, "zero_fraction": 0.026819933871186426, "correlation": 0.6289418808594849, "pit_histogram": [ 0.05541, 0.10519, 0.12565, 0.12961, 0.12535, 0.10523, 0.09519, 0.08588, 0.08299, 0.08949 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.18205828229306242 } }, "distribution_full": { "ethiopia": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9993500566265449, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.0027937950523883584 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9897670718671946, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.045685847555087984 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.863431981797125, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.5765404884460886 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0471959085730456, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.07350338690218583 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0373532159166947, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.08189747357032828 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0006127450980392157, "area_mean": 0.01494078649014687 } }, "ondj_domain": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9999369402147166, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.003170919249057473 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9519186937248859, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.09051449672423346 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.8077604839053605, "area_mean_abs_log": 1.0453746538472355 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0858502686599265, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.0949196608746645 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0104619742157166, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.07903793387658903 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.009313725490196077, "area_mean": 0.026819933871186415 } } } }, "vs": { "training": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 30.255946488839193, 34.81100621217378, 28.687879639215463, 25.169309520948257, 174.68076460378126, 30.575156352350906, 34.63978914928121, 47.02784807501746, 20.355945395466676, 30.56781321239366, 27.658912482306373, 27.50620262777717, 32.163371220822754, 52.035439849434084, 40.56637170797238, 49.36986224819102, 32.31700396649399, 58.36133882276745, 39.35712174419033, 28.167610566613682, 35.40734485809324, 33.13529218489002, 39.11412213305752, 25.888295903918316 ], "crps_clim": [ 29.83323453860368, 38.88077881844172, 26.1795875687868, 36.08822373966346, 249.9992360568139, 38.426875463916396, 39.04498825040786, 38.65484959473932, 21.062619481737414, 26.341700917326186, 23.043072155361166, 23.761208131674348, 35.758076339617475, 65.51443181552213, 28.07427178189838, 41.19686340465451, 28.3419383709928, 45.95970122915301, 42.821914300357065, 27.103313627542445, 35.0043497136804, 30.34929072242817, 36.1179019010588, 32.50133398998652 ], "rps": [ 0.4575129108537926, 0.36494507235662754, 0.4670594032818292, 0.36275067718705234, 0.13935624214437178, 0.40476248011396665, 0.4109228819210568, 0.5828000051630883, 0.3694507499288413, 0.437434500243716, 0.4405073550484433, 0.41530548961811736, 0.4527508521552622, 0.3963639794659489, 0.6091434256661987, 0.5775176128135314, 0.4123955573847189, 0.6775157635834225, 0.4169902576595294, 0.4035094746036334, 0.4333286777736884, 0.5018710617718263, 0.35684267003765713, 0.3975189792615832 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.43952109738446665, 0.4701037173237654, 0.4169699152477682, 0.47870260421034994, 0.5456974480225605, 0.4718891921569669, 0.47528498795368085, 0.4682080375922366, 0.3831343617912619, 0.4088195337833923, 0.40159350714274034, 0.3947124470194672, 0.4905254609590217, 0.4972930221700924, 0.4454260522581055, 0.4580123165551393, 0.4122169895751251, 0.5190225120513517, 0.4587331615402525, 0.4177409087656852, 0.44718476038056587, 0.4632550515537808, 0.44214926963850176, 0.47013731210450704 ], "bias": [ 18.773720340406086, 39.65692761323791, 24.202001947371276, 30.32218583557313, -211.54576813477985, -2.6909103978508746, -11.68806828745008, -55.6925838040989, 2.3329336581960933, 28.08197099580139, 20.14110004091287, -16.39751704473253, 52.16435932624128, -70.54204460374255, 61.95638278740791, -56.48866851057372, 15.936045995584875, 92.66626065638128, -10.531279491789055, 26.28384141563921, -36.514568002355354, -31.998797682086778, 51.884095829566554, 28.10079062798812 ], "mae": [ 45.93872712300742, 54.45386576105807, 41.69936456211442, 38.407818102780894, 211.56852806175212, 47.35614953256501, 48.001625345804385, 61.485235709320584, 27.212161945354605, 47.44389216447951, 40.34730776244315, 32.62672498004409, 53.482947735661156, 74.19370834950428, 63.94235091035783, 65.76997686343643, 48.56513618074342, 92.94026554284838, 56.40100459371572, 42.81837797591881, 44.341261272396835, 44.1289155006958, 62.33164629026991, 42.22132662454556 ], "mse": [ 3234.740873461185, 4961.554915050787, 2929.506593674668, 2157.063722718761, 61618.65598193043, 3500.0144690520265, 4237.73317496189, 5596.436528262061, 1184.9396619516713, 3510.1648827870126, 2666.626846434347, 1839.4139835404028, 4404.354298955977, 10617.996663326197, 6593.4656354269355, 7488.7351752597715, 3715.7415240786463, 12991.424362496016, 6179.415478210263, 3081.391751936013, 3424.166047586407, 3063.5171869580663, 6470.865192578159, 2666.9923632763225 ], "var": [ 6692.698118290445, 11737.809653707161, 6398.546287649707, 6224.6711210873245, 5651.973492162758, 5261.735622434122, 7311.8871942626365, 6447.854911051554, 4813.012923932185, 8767.720845208125, 8657.106386063657, 7922.704868176728, 4810.1642289114125, 7043.46364269057, 6347.004404183021, 3962.4797262807265, 9163.098148690806, 6635.126898231028, 7185.275461655037, 6331.574850231954, 8098.306601366121, 6904.878780648343, 13176.211410582908, 4551.030839412671 ], "zero": [ 0.025871657517718364, 0.006942463264524274, 0.01582053036458978, 0.053803701597181765, 0.0008551579387405823, 0.04264583585756096, 0.06968783448236131, 0.04611641746548594, 0.02692494784956842, 0.008165295104403343, 0.020312170435816422, 0.03491388419236966, 0.02463211485170552, 0.009692204661782772, 0.01258174859257936, 0.03476884800800755, 0.0057276717479932925, 0.01547168402532394, 0.01221453751513918, 0.008722281531029179, 0.021349090479805773, 0.018120085345963814, 0.0035966300137281275, 0.015693563665066832 ] }, "crps": 40.742489540249835, "crpss": 0.05984272753116349, "rps": 0.43702317000157936, "rpss": 0.035653336777722866, "mean_bias_mm": -0.4828162037146531, "mean_mae_mm": 57.819929953784104, "mean_rmse_mm": 83.69959112651875, "spread_error_ratio": 1.00581595990043, "zero_fraction": 0.02227626485451859, "correlation": 0.26093052934960365, "pit_histogram": [ 0.07699, 0.09978, 0.11308, 0.11685, 0.11251, 0.10235, 0.09456, 0.09443, 0.08299, 0.10646 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.10250725278894178 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 37.79052040580599, 43.46886266298633, 28.14897021425743, 27.369596261566706, 235.74175091684444, 31.228511213821605, 27.27867941778504, 56.21241257041685, 25.705377093153384, 29.622070854564928, 29.737953691796985, 37.47524507168624, 43.38481272004464, 72.58613448337061, 40.53586112030542, 52.07713522577437, 38.889395046549, 71.48013881490031, 65.25456322413606, 29.965704952417223, 50.33552595623907, 37.487688198943125, 56.213286810182986, 34.67725007503753 ], "crps_clim": [ 42.28827155959033, 47.03475528721915, 28.118112914314686, 51.435856466268575, 352.79501684228853, 53.54974195536778, 38.362106175221676, 39.349051348043986, 27.402303306971245, 33.04226475208313, 26.16461609134499, 33.51963055426904, 51.74936172381692, 99.15164309867102, 30.1279091186148, 46.27450144046246, 27.396128860915656, 66.68806658106446, 71.89082190601232, 28.449906713101416, 50.156317986314725, 34.37176519545435, 56.19481769512508, 45.209077740680264 ], "rps": [ 0.445052916585517, 0.30118991531749534, 0.3846404621257067, 0.2852933304499921, 0.06873275368047434, 0.2979760328350554, 0.28721207655155984, 0.6389690480706833, 0.34974766383074024, 0.305658907264936, 0.3709486784949779, 0.4181150081358432, 0.4680966476296188, 0.3380036790533304, 0.4876475385216146, 0.5085327582205574, 0.41851768414960805, 0.5946900022265469, 0.42890404628760204, 0.31325674110704343, 0.45031589788988874, 0.48962998752034165, 0.1698921928762925, 0.4271994470074861 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4819055012071629, 0.444711644142145, 0.3912256783048537, 0.5314847003061296, 0.5463137996219283, 0.5246370496095673, 0.46799085581035055, 0.43018330198082794, 0.37903088404294777, 0.37602959074729786, 0.3657108710730794, 0.4071905831264576, 0.5346883545994874, 0.5378418884618463, 0.397580420764294, 0.42189702270560003, 0.35631035559982877, 0.5447213136522713, 0.4681166143725515, 0.3573140603557788, 0.4646548705590716, 0.44355045410047106, 0.4892057906870231, 0.5235515159121176 ], "bias": [ 61.886938222077475, 41.51420139826729, 32.809585102205446, 41.17033899695478, -284.3577420894956, 48.23275517743841, 24.93093700029926, -72.39435063222612, -3.465115868446492, -2.7977947431015235, -0.1909153094234441, -27.49065041557847, 75.34491352862214, -101.59630798877878, 60.47747246948959, -69.35245364910706, 45.53811308429648, 111.90725569071724, -76.03633266294494, 28.812000440201228, -57.46793491977577, -31.998291576484508, 86.89689623362446, 58.086157473985395 ], "mae": [ 64.27544371940895, 63.001673222040964, 39.32666517388533, 43.23573461600138, 284.3577420894956, 56.78518575703378, 37.46512529168935, 74.06041406280359, 30.55088930246303, 38.204094367584, 38.92009862550798, 42.81791154220142, 75.35104694166334, 103.23211609771656, 63.29759053492424, 70.29606273462436, 68.95534284493114, 111.90725569071724, 85.21135884323198, 43.0152878414026, 62.543410626294445, 52.71593387813373, 93.71497795156382, 59.893146136660896 ], "mse": [ 5241.518214936893, 6226.092042528303, 2245.0117145206273, 2354.342587691318, 92654.48036867646, 4023.308557138559, 2342.6265459190117, 7581.373656030334, 1538.0895186612215, 2554.588289204791, 2223.205566286503, 3042.1748748007058, 6705.531316318298, 16730.382225342644, 6539.936761010655, 8921.848497194347, 6090.145924852447, 16742.024974651704, 11915.515952651896, 2854.949471770877, 5852.666850932625, 3799.9179947898483, 11466.034403792364, 4389.977357175377 ], "var": [ 8236.523805147837, 19835.189109926803, 9318.039907068709, 8870.515563127927, 8550.09126963701, 8155.061690134298, 9600.300631742253, 8466.47873732068, 7563.919501162623, 9856.446179711298, 11274.86322427415, 12111.968803779373, 7118.371462250776, 10646.432512608206, 10287.522642565875, 6394.992848017808, 12354.701510120845, 7621.948622622678, 10003.996540075483, 10243.94740993594, 11551.608100932815, 8981.044990504734, 26020.90632383786, 6424.885076770998 ], "zero": [ 0.036083791968544346, 0.006327855387885027, 0.032162042676083344, 0.11006806062674375, 0.0, 0.08621653241489793, 0.12441311992192478, 0.0896970943067434, 0.05774364924011289, 0.007507330746590458, 0.03855765346979956, 0.05646143706856678, 0.05226568757052178, 0.010019661691070346, 0.02930871031006363, 0.05717377647912978, 0.0015345964026335429, 0.031335320079074934, 0.015035704910709626, 0.012160364333159982, 0.03632375090763274, 0.029519047374274354, 0.007995345906991152, 0.022070882940616487 ] }, "crps": 50.111143625107765, "crpss": 0.12895759788512573, "rps": 0.3853426423263713, "rpss": 0.15043603750775036, "mean_bias_mm": -0.39751354321598126, "mean_mae_mm": 70.96393782883248, "mean_rmse_mm": 98.74962946489086, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0324885971213913, "zero_fraction": 0.039582559030573776, "correlation": 0.4697429126282547, "pit_histogram": [ 0.04331, 0.09498, 0.12918, 0.14348, 0.134, 0.10455, 0.09144, 0.08215, 0.08183, 0.09508 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.22242578315500455 } }, "operational": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 26.781290096014068, 24.753002543963152, 75.18529580064471, 20.77180315933935, 29.485528755185562, 26.89871621036919, 67.19998280024399, 52.74801391811086 ], "crps_clim": [ 24.186278935163696, 25.3510236438784, 115.19291638908858, 23.883905041341485, 31.83506561734916, 24.11958582957673, 108.55164002965007, 36.322116319494704 ], "rps": [ 0.42005163115970867, 0.4281095040261554, 0.379297606515667, 0.319606314776487, 0.4630977031151711, 0.40668533125747935, 0.3297815448375141, 0.682830703372766 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.41765960837363175, 0.4211483967453936, 0.5533032169639418, 0.44730768376472113, 0.4625683819363159, 0.41678104776399905, 0.5158924087479178, 0.42890010225976694 ], "bias": [ -0.36139659937054386, -8.028657992256123, -99.6403967580234, 6.408431727279706, 6.478213798124284, 29.746198499933662, -73.37400994700646, -62.36020004267442 ], "mae": [ 34.92418201201754, 29.404182542647558, 101.40759820090858, 24.409253687957776, 43.4222688157841, 41.20380006294179, 91.59786533915982, 66.55824130118408 ], "mse": [ 1887.8212564618138, 1520.3742601189588, 14440.947691861595, 1110.711428390164, 2783.4144376597546, 2704.7625734134867, 14142.120266037955, 7437.292169870386 ], "var": [ 6842.386352379606, 5908.33412765898, 12141.746679597998, 6242.915335266671, 4719.07428155137, 8078.596813976, 10167.844139395658, 5254.259556152449 ], "zero": [ 0.031543442792978736, 0.04078832439836889, 0.012578524707724227, 0.043504289015475164, 0.03615511058232239, 0.0235454179888829, 0.0037632582225039647, 0.061395715332252784 ] }, "crps": 40.47795416048386, "crpss": 0.16849443284339805, "rps": 0.4286825423826186, "rpss": 0.0638997186889444, "mean_bias_mm": -25.14147716424916, "mean_mae_mm": 54.11592399532516, "mean_rmse_mm": 75.85137118389333, "spread_error_ratio": 1.135588015555624, "zero_fraction": 0.031659260380063635, "correlation": 0.4127588740190101, "pit_histogram": [ 0.01373, 0.04235, 0.07217, 0.10404, 0.12907, 0.12352, 0.11208, 0.10842, 0.12366, 0.17095 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.34349882742283283 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 33.18715154236792, 22.84697263567041, 66.53233371985425, 26.231266583052847, 32.37672282177969, 32.24641431538285, 78.99495826973438, 33.54539956996586 ], "crps_clim": [ 27.513828107781922, 30.99293899368493, 161.45686691829505, 27.920571148564072, 44.378057761090616, 29.766973014786096, 175.6320250314755, 25.22282617443876 ], "rps": [ 0.41297822018850944, 0.29464886837830634, 0.09058000027937095, 0.3479922100306661, 0.3543384688794999, 0.4255677069701283, 0.0804430560927735, 0.4427736856059899 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.37168677457254995, 0.40830736189644173, 0.5514955486398806, 0.4122454653654102, 0.5073582603125171, 0.4229682694777741, 0.5480141318493015, 0.3433109764761434 ], "bias": [ -22.38390826834913, 14.315587388764614, -84.62234291427038, 11.08548625034775, 54.77044723731446, 46.76487159442161, -101.69515733661818, -29.85373040415396 ], "mae": [ 35.929706090426116, 24.626553035639816, 89.12221540675144, 30.58420831662106, 55.79211576545744, 49.527135377159404, 110.75708981139064, 39.80014206501814 ], "mse": [ 1927.1102354472173, 904.4302184728798, 10982.708182914095, 1437.5383057505742, 3796.0498405135604, 3730.742589285996, 17401.16261660102, 2656.9401808354864 ], "var": [ 10350.621642116943, 8650.388992077491, 21156.26996129626, 8875.529764794097, 7411.126885073566, 9857.688132846335, 15732.97794123072, 7432.670510258791 ], "zero": [ 0.06162619135748488, 0.08450576624663425, 0.004454567801223889, 0.04808295499920924, 0.07553978077154955, 0.040446289355024465, 0.0019380259955973657, 0.09414882446709082 ] }, "crps": 40.74515243222602, "crpss": 0.37660902775909766, "rps": 0.30616527705315555, "rpss": 0.3130276287937156, "mean_bias_mm": -13.952343306567903, "mean_mae_mm": 54.517395733558004, "mean_rmse_mm": 73.17503174736314, "spread_error_ratio": 1.4451874750345521, "zero_fraction": 0.0513428001242268, "correlation": 0.8766048371879569, "pit_histogram": [ 0.00544, 0.04289, 0.09302, 0.12659, 0.15096, 0.15364, 0.14068, 0.12602, 0.09441, 0.06636 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.39579301396115985 } }, "full": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 29.479227818097474, 36.391885831931404, 31.019952444267773, 26.944969448535925, 153.9042425249714, 28.373452936517314, 32.8957398207013, 43.55512529976192, 20.145941609891935, 32.783976022501015, 30.26494782986016, 26.466279920074744, 35.39424663690002, 47.95050926959938, 44.60075570471258, 48.132320918675155, 32.744309905697584, 62.296275818287526, 40.576140835800295, 29.266227904210016, 32.68590437261568, 29.18525305968097, 39.341823019879264, 26.907944817115958, 26.801744897214906, 23.35515696580072, 72.15978608264969, 21.088192265989953, 28.892634471928027, 27.79129126529364, 64.85042576636657, 49.51283238199748 ], "crps_clim": [ 30.220473451764587, 39.917418564936064, 27.757568172072368, 37.802333372958124, 238.75051318915055, 37.61181929878509, 37.616082531632294, 37.23600638646016, 21.306686770765648, 28.4780000830409, 25.20476923730856, 24.600584384519205, 37.81772054414582, 61.83148106658277, 29.811614275645827, 41.56571447524313, 29.657529779748423, 47.67275462965923, 43.64083140619902, 27.6391470098042, 34.1009877354789, 28.817911129816427, 35.16768869621822, 33.87686011313925, 25.87047943593951, 26.437105491714817, 114.62794696826606, 26.4205712229385, 33.14461289262585, 24.563582570388807, 107.27766982133843, 35.50441102323164 ], "rps": [ 0.4439243245743242, 0.37941176476429805, 0.49489443101756425, 0.38661102028717953, 0.11714890907313133, 0.3740521990225549, 0.40245604250509054, 0.5506733632139041, 0.36667873532666784, 0.4672139717799128, 0.4671859210336741, 0.4029856653614979, 0.48837874120571917, 0.35678641431406927, 0.6575843920334169, 0.5644170030588358, 0.41101281505854687, 0.7235418298575965, 0.4247395448353942, 0.4388801679636653, 0.3971252346496263, 0.4499570199134196, 0.34967751570302286, 0.4095085417752208, 0.40872959462538344, 0.38661152444259694, 0.35883488053935764, 0.31729262080647763, 0.4353956012543979, 0.41103289530586945, 0.31950207994859864, 0.6412354752386358 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.42752784364987473, 0.47525412925412475, 0.4178646042147745, 0.4860452399955733, 0.5615292811104182, 0.4629144820543785, 0.4720919884684642, 0.46355275516950334, 0.3602950493837294, 0.41093548411809694, 0.39925120731108465, 0.3862724441100123, 0.4981591164438388, 0.48945929833950264, 0.4479384312130977, 0.4604687964566817, 0.402555507760245, 0.5325649512878922, 0.46103987989217676, 0.4197441009203777, 0.4304978343784619, 0.45092626124868035, 0.4260850230367853, 0.4774252618219362, 0.4145131464744774, 0.4091714328578628, 0.5607984489124369, 0.46414258203020875, 0.45688333757744265, 0.4028824114723692, 0.5188382677855484, 0.41855246264432233 ], "bias": [ 24.899168580591056, 46.002690700366514, 30.97071714692792, 36.65960912417176, -193.58475260733022, 4.023195760719957, -4.544722434579267, -48.55879835240237, 9.167095877797024, 34.29212567295911, 26.952018218353732, -9.541048068699073, 58.274094599513134, -63.086842462286434, 68.24640740236494, -49.219720569926075, 21.815139178019248, 98.37124794988151, -3.559136405829513, 32.780980520130164, -29.656518404676216, -25.22621958467321, 56.44259918191122, 34.264488907499576, 5.645834922295522, -2.3388832673197384, -96.61309571360391, 12.855231264465736, 12.844865326896532, 37.70734338823046, -71.11743363440925, -58.147575091570964 ], "mae": [ 45.28057861530389, 56.40112192560567, 45.73824161474995, 42.47207825549689, 193.7042891989911, 44.98976464248457, 46.773558212467435, 57.31567457233803, 27.226235298205836, 52.41399888654047, 44.92006052626107, 31.86854710678333, 58.97033899916032, 67.93722243853563, 69.33026251091253, 64.19142429976294, 50.19463701585236, 98.37436360429342, 59.48322158047637, 45.244259396660105, 40.421808681538536, 38.4322198723325, 62.713219688952336, 44.46398642298731, 34.93059592420838, 28.17363487580155, 98.1518505062813, 27.509149641126353, 43.76443261564541, 44.52718188287846, 89.69896701787087, 62.80816582744811 ], "mse": [ 3223.7997575511936, 5165.911235722776, 3436.709271109985, 2607.0107492374063, 52906.22555940915, 3183.6203043114624, 3927.283265236365, 4972.7710946419975, 1165.0336975393616, 4181.219908564968, 3342.1702173916383, 1751.8197345027443, 5221.845414928003, 9405.533551603978, 7501.555336631752, 7098.119255835146, 3896.2473217894376, 13925.051414099185, 6506.03316807079, 3229.5247280797666, 2941.896247340501, 2430.3117306523686, 6499.421277008314, 2981.6984005323948, 1910.6206601467604, 1341.1846589041, 13469.724817233046, 1238.998468238018, 2829.753927337966, 2930.5414186293674, 13486.217451044071, 6629.378091430071 ], "var": [ 6601.490882152908, 11481.713686827708, 6292.480411446558, 6215.344376344999, 7154.569461948896, 5269.885299801284, 7321.587343706619, 6295.506010345833, 4839.345393447606, 8580.87222222129, 8513.255498614279, 7872.649705123301, 4802.128579168806, 7069.593830353182, 6330.0326956072, 3953.4306109348636, 8883.611801176557, 6577.6743709763405, 7115.774602259482, 6260.287399696655, 7952.521392673768, 6715.851715522336, 12633.227204332788, 4535.440087251285, 6971.332134499564, 6047.182209655951, 11702.717472947923, 6295.257742546888, 4726.551942588472, 8225.06577094781, 9579.84392862322, 5302.614621732754 ], "zero": [ 0.018635348312835538, 0.0036652980356101164, 0.013884003033103446, 0.04692057791904394, 0.0007736672322612852, 0.03695120853687222, 0.05888003872947149, 0.03594990750176591, 0.022174341098437397, 0.004834952052740199, 0.015443450436976407, 0.02696241946041956, 0.021373460960703056, 0.005892812842800478, 0.010179315767816974, 0.027362481453234853, 0.002746394628386308, 0.012695575531434897, 0.008187400815358367, 0.006784261027460331, 0.01649621133253974, 0.01246469899246793, 0.003219660375597907, 0.010340267132019288, 0.02738752782483202, 0.0354814651179398, 0.008091580266921278, 0.03099645374568989, 0.030043486112601582, 0.01933591622256884, 0.002709226779978048, 0.05487629238574846 ] }, "crps": 39.867484933360245, "crpss": 0.10907467473948784, "rps": 0.4313587575153016, "rpss": 0.04581035022942337, "mean_bias_mm": -0.09312165231909653, "mean_mae_mm": 56.825784114311034, "mean_rmse_mm": 80.1048594294445, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0540148406443368, "zero_fraction": 0.019741865677051173, "correlation": 0.30364752296607184, "pit_histogram": [ 0.0806, 0.09827, 0.1116, 0.11367, 0.11654, 0.10226, 0.09598, 0.09197, 0.08445, 0.10466 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.0974698103836895 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 39.39913371991618, 42.58634370570551, 28.92057588128288, 28.16758689992312, 206.03350640709454, 32.279207721724035, 27.244950356040402, 53.41203322844349, 24.950102118663, 30.194822687631575, 29.626803050129148, 36.825426131351065, 45.19380199734832, 69.33085799343425, 41.41155226778719, 50.081334676986245, 39.373219119033415, 72.92514605627422, 62.95006895054485, 30.4131227011845, 47.73865159094869, 35.586695816545635, 56.56921421701549, 36.3778430858568, 33.133439506143745, 23.270009528863472, 65.64437392872723, 26.943825077876863, 34.83333291926513, 33.689446029180246, 79.94820539843016, 32.71405642387092 ], "crps_clim": [ 43.05674508597644, 47.02174056492448, 28.84873411344585, 52.31210697339705, 337.83045973804184, 54.55256595155876, 38.94875701090369, 39.57782058741483, 27.74569141249191, 34.126369417367485, 27.450347808492733, 34.017006869578225, 52.72584373838084, 95.1322901374424, 31.016202641442625, 46.77726687336443, 28.68599867750331, 67.63450525795584, 70.45970873133518, 29.076021275933627, 49.86214141911897, 34.70899724260007, 55.60856424824002, 45.9400310845385, 29.402894877394107, 33.32071549456562, 163.04105609314394, 29.873009959301736, 48.200340322444724, 32.07710679517107, 177.18917611869378, 26.893576505878865 ], "rps": [ 0.4798662929112905, 0.29644187818521556, 0.4029815901148944, 0.30582473620824135, 0.05535438820501373, 0.32400342605651616, 0.29715766757515155, 0.6112549046847835, 0.34620508358131014, 0.3161783816655603, 0.38203928436873336, 0.4190859978244298, 0.49851037887760996, 0.31906450308275797, 0.4974777477901887, 0.4793822024907132, 0.41438304999375297, 0.6284299253674557, 0.3996966013471668, 0.3176652397166475, 0.42191071489190957, 0.4619737605340346, 0.16946146562041267, 0.4597852455838848, 0.4104648655242921, 0.28979215150829163, 0.08121319538050276, 0.3527420292168742, 0.3750519738110522, 0.42589125681938333, 0.07232745232292566, 0.4123855825502042 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4903301532167852, 0.44204091246608007, 0.3821454984532625, 0.5431907333012903, 0.5629552549427677, 0.538931603827915, 0.47718465303177104, 0.4269517164665013, 0.3648511299187768, 0.3588689197908303, 0.356723031227705, 0.4013877968759663, 0.5457092532164318, 0.5530781005304259, 0.3883080341726342, 0.41667877142632664, 0.33834680801777955, 0.5610985777523381, 0.4668682110446354, 0.34014334800184304, 0.464044269131601, 0.43822125796975975, 0.5000883325693602, 0.5339534977340119, 0.3734059025504393, 0.40314128440280195, 0.5592508943098848, 0.414709381099934, 0.516605453040115, 0.4212120203974677, 0.5555451413875876, 0.33021111911934736 ], "bias": [ 65.31578243572919, 44.61773361830695, 35.987817494804766, 44.769364908576904, -260.4545800890304, 51.3807894350795, 27.908355648116544, -68.18895762926174, 0.6198929427720195, 1.1988804453343533, 3.8460507730747926, -23.18660663653793, 78.31883658282348, -96.14822674816557, 63.32376917312159, -65.26198920635836, 49.15587159322758, 113.71466940441142, -71.58473360592363, 32.04431692931128, -53.26872710110113, -27.86262222265932, 87.40681938494815, 61.899838435201886, -19.397137155798198, 18.482744944850836, -84.02251612078977, 14.871609139520546, 60.173952819687095, 51.77137290388147, -104.69766440545996, -27.705163320420876 ], "mae": [ 67.3216190889759, 61.881257049072374, 41.3740734600392, 46.652000678814794, 260.4545800890304, 59.63118008066399, 38.3240792898071, 70.31657201462046, 29.432245081780035, 40.44704266689526, 39.55921878239243, 42.3821832429571, 78.31883658282348, 98.06124606579908, 65.40969278899382, 66.86783468035972, 70.84280882290079, 113.71466940441142, 82.30263511060598, 44.56562918025337, 59.36720400004711, 49.525832794369144, 93.84470154074565, 63.154466763623006, 34.75744399912476, 26.624088471799915, 87.94419336118393, 33.56693399999849, 60.98693776899744, 53.45214547124706, 112.54836691754905, 38.56276704296041 ], "mse": [ 5688.010066286121, 5944.733932714901, 2423.416684017399, 2699.696692884394, 78735.32362241524, 4340.243119779613, 2447.0347858400132, 6944.849605006181, 1425.0506584098466, 2656.4638219217677, 2249.5732149987807, 2931.278497696698, 7189.423639205589, 15511.532321548402, 6733.897469501946, 8525.722942840952, 6319.852083365367, 16876.27194076968, 11335.298749430316, 3026.2723307167394, 5339.70896387012, 3445.617872822996, 11618.44433601896, 4866.263662074755, 1831.9302710187299, 1026.3068985388834, 10746.763422654583, 1660.1416873819812, 4455.198805017773, 4143.730828471849, 17888.914575199626, 2491.14283473823 ], "var": [ 8220.49766092523, 19244.9626670454, 9084.499185762383, 8893.607711354047, 11148.250169563302, 8126.871716731097, 9454.339364570595, 8329.727790733054, 7617.234533909491, 9694.946685213376, 11115.294425706628, 11985.213613688355, 7128.654688652508, 10744.22798076661, 10268.754632052458, 6357.080338567469, 12131.878160263155, 7502.6677179760745, 9943.766328788948, 10007.98392715943, 11292.336998818864, 8767.863261838458, 24936.869492304628, 6411.2797305902595, 10678.628204573832, 8832.893476159905, 20631.77123954052, 8875.716978674396, 7437.649420449759, 9935.178159081737, 14663.26203910294, 7493.920478117615 ], "zero": [ 0.03296026844307302, 0.004383756534369403, 0.031184733015976365, 0.10165525851730231, 0.0, 0.08350342501792116, 0.11419671740206876, 0.07754891110312782, 0.05127829421141346, 0.006256176315534447, 0.0305545909405526, 0.05138725097916113, 0.04956147518401193, 0.008978547139551473, 0.02541659705482778, 0.04960324780733426, 0.000906993294667497, 0.028206221582754893, 0.012047897872087142, 0.010423540159205127, 0.031388386490348245, 0.024514437193121158, 0.007369695629076812, 0.017971551729020006, 0.06129177281440685, 0.07983672484773377, 0.0040134612799048175, 0.04124270600700557, 0.06644434713214398, 0.03699991529830392, 0.0015979925478374149, 0.09357303062876324 ] }, "crps": 46.8052715372882, "crpss": 0.2171042336051635, "rps": 0.3663750929316, "rpss": 0.18955784363166694, "mean_bias_mm": 0.15717327410229576, "mean_mae_mm": 66.63107769665133, "mean_rmse_mm": 90.74657540665764, "spread_error_ratio": 1.1307915168495457, "zero_fraction": 0.03863431013039395, "correlation": 0.6172861168672964, "pit_histogram": [ 0.038, 0.08891, 0.12835, 0.14027, 0.13595, 0.11436, 0.1022, 0.08974, 0.08079, 0.08145 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.2422320408611808 } }, "distribution_full": { "ethiopia": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9991966779016478, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.0033535193660057094 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9910121359199922, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.014832541263372492 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.8183149877412313, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.8765130178791631 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0438676038038999, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.07059894512752361 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0473667639428559, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.0845357304271165 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0018627450980392157, "area_mean": 0.019741865677051166 } }, "ondj_domain": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 0.999528778489306, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.004443278416078784 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9838726587298385, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.022048768836626407 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.6589689043911078, "area_mean_abs_log": 1.8056840053052303 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 1.077054927551152, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.08814533369251294 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.032182565283045, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.08495975457297796 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.02671568627450982, "area_mean": 0.038634310130393944 } } } }, "sqrt_mvs": { "training": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 29.506507941765808, 34.3204181997254, 27.721300253164642, 24.398611181599655, 171.96265537726813, 30.600602283993382, 33.48359334811709, 46.09679172105601, 19.397952396496507, 29.394772590354236, 26.591556983730857, 26.254895987508657, 32.35793753363149, 54.14984962284916, 39.74811432294863, 48.944090692822094, 30.67517105109406, 59.07314053907715, 40.050374097348275, 27.391189296770676, 35.57192464032208, 32.89750921024865, 35.94092667856129, 25.940420479424972 ], "crps_clim": [ 29.83323453860368, 38.88077881844172, 26.1795875687868, 36.08822373966346, 249.9992360568139, 38.426875463916396, 39.04498825040786, 38.65484959473932, 21.062619481737414, 26.341700917326186, 23.043072155361166, 23.761208131674348, 35.758076339617475, 65.51443181552213, 28.07427178189838, 41.19686340465451, 28.3419383709928, 45.95970122915301, 42.821914300357065, 27.103313627542445, 35.0043497136804, 30.34929072242817, 36.1179019010588, 32.50133398998652 ], "rps": [ 0.4519273516040506, 0.3729686706734798, 0.4616318447194986, 0.36185450908005723, 0.1380784116649165, 0.398650106354388, 0.40371921920404336, 0.5744176791982628, 0.36679857669544946, 0.4364129502996593, 0.4343174578655575, 0.4086815475788539, 0.4581560401249102, 0.39854045572531444, 0.6130608325446184, 0.565894581588285, 0.4015759021319845, 0.6885252708739281, 0.42356303936855, 0.4043536152569767, 0.43549696322301307, 0.5010365754092917, 0.3580464495523797, 0.40040015891621833 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.43952109738446665, 0.4701037173237654, 0.4169699152477682, 0.47870260421034994, 0.5456974480225605, 0.4718891921569669, 0.47528498795368085, 0.4682080375922366, 0.3831343617912619, 0.4088195337833923, 0.40159350714274034, 0.3947124470194672, 0.4905254609590217, 0.4972930221700924, 0.4454260522581055, 0.4580123165551393, 0.4122169895751251, 0.5190225120513517, 0.4587331615402525, 0.4177409087656852, 0.44718476038056587, 0.4632550515537808, 0.44214926963850176, 0.47013731210450704 ], "bias": [ 19.700628255832612, 37.21641444234962, 24.215607130919814, 32.51209836240048, -209.8029424508103, -0.7451567801923885, -9.788790214852105, -54.10504781952114, 3.3303891979670843, 25.823979890298776, 20.04182403704883, -15.484503084322288, 52.71265374394904, -72.4387655530633, 60.785002557747006, -55.0427527678239, 14.095246955777961, 91.81710643617937, -10.878261749413591, 24.52019449709782, -36.92089044943829, -32.013623561579166, 45.65266160792722, 29.69236129405437 ], "mae": [ 45.80550242468215, 53.479461019702484, 41.402128659805165, 40.12076244718928, 209.8263850254784, 48.06292477640616, 48.301992507846506, 60.10525622097687, 27.29974018828341, 46.25389733538855, 39.6306825103299, 32.17265498378892, 54.000293825399076, 75.7857774010925, 62.8679750671469, 64.39839140844138, 46.91389701194703, 92.09202306852919, 57.10301532823374, 41.70581717196092, 44.656728990280186, 44.16236736352433, 57.31667106136313, 42.985052550775784 ], "mse": [ 3219.7250980316853, 4797.447674170295, 2888.318784698883, 2332.1895809445314, 60495.04737589002, 3599.832976260556, 4274.622109960302, 5362.124047617723, 1179.8193866237698, 3385.692371991007, 2591.845182314322, 1788.2840163777048, 4463.140642668197, 10965.468342125589, 6352.11139953281, 7237.008144396819, 3482.810554496013, 12646.240795077007, 6321.434328992339, 2939.9230385556057, 3469.3849943176456, 3056.279583265753, 5412.061089506795, 2734.6732760038412 ], "var": [ 5496.234161546208, 10342.68956366025, 5326.062145053778, 5034.755926667342, 6097.73417272567, 4297.343401115351, 6116.8422516693545, 5249.462527097158, 3918.204137384568, 7395.8885992901905, 7242.461192060356, 6600.755815045367, 3976.59914119, 5812.117792632367, 5385.526323327312, 3197.5248463630815, 7838.984065010046, 5620.6427291680975, 6065.518055610217, 5434.561193436693, 6792.50948349526, 5713.65777494287, 12146.194852822322, 3682.4846599025545 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 2.6658992811922095e-05, 0.0010332110270696523, 0.0029088401858555725, 0.0, 0.0004619873096686485, 0.0033785432090090084, 0.0011671927480000539, 8.158317255086161e-05, 0.0, 8.127753811333812e-05, 0.0007596746008173298, 0.00021767918271306866, 0.0, 0.0004625252438040001, 0.0002442726107724665, 0.0, 0.0, 5.3461774501560225e-05, 0.0, 0.00010883569663605721, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 40.10292943457829, "crpss": 0.07460095883497275, "rps": 0.4357545087355703, "rpss": 0.03845279763612708, "mean_bias_mm": -0.6293569175610992, "mean_mae_mm": 57.352058264523826, "mean_rmse_mm": 82.91448526288477, "spread_error_ratio": 0.9367536364388789, "zero_fraction": 0.00045773930384681417, "correlation": 0.2760342304396495, "pit_histogram": [ 0.09882, 0.11209, 0.10405, 0.102, 0.10196, 0.09603, 0.09008, 0.09248, 0.08718, 0.11531 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.07082051576072065 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 37.22649189742268, 41.91204714087386, 26.24134142649371, 26.10640900014252, 227.41383450788493, 32.12853737140264, 25.137203634469678, 54.85152931626008, 23.8779933614668, 28.28887440681657, 27.982749902189035, 36.23117972107713, 43.761873701686014, 76.83625945473602, 38.51677751528592, 51.869891374708814, 36.187353048343546, 73.06680358329403, 67.07654551300496, 27.772900094647756, 51.35240133207748, 37.760281608154585, 50.57257714890851, 34.7244623006665 ], "crps_clim": [ 42.28827155959033, 47.03475528721915, 28.118112914314686, 51.435856466268575, 352.79501684228853, 53.54974195536778, 38.362106175221676, 39.349051348043986, 27.402303306971245, 33.04226475208313, 26.16461609134499, 33.51963055426904, 51.74936172381692, 99.15164309867102, 30.1279091186148, 46.27450144046246, 27.396128860915656, 66.68806658106446, 71.89082190601232, 28.449906713101416, 50.156317986314725, 34.37176519545435, 56.19481769512508, 45.209077740680264 ], "rps": [ 0.44028737768002585, 0.30669312390261316, 0.37241992026798904, 0.28051355935921896, 0.06952472416285138, 0.3008077339792804, 0.28291797544328373, 0.6368744336414968, 0.34162026821340447, 0.3003893749061127, 0.35812732432335775, 0.41684315113103904, 0.4642071536985538, 0.3550700970449928, 0.47531494576534983, 0.5086448703405506, 0.4038450367007755, 0.5958823889500213, 0.44060807284313225, 0.3013732965962747, 0.46279241840821117, 0.5042011994277914, 0.1718235587920501, 0.4224405327262292 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4819055012071629, 0.444711644142145, 0.3912256783048537, 0.5314847003061296, 0.5463137996219283, 0.5246370496095673, 0.46799085581035055, 0.43018330198082794, 0.37903088404294777, 0.37602959074729786, 0.3657108710730794, 0.4071905831264576, 0.5346883545994874, 0.5378418884618463, 0.397580420764294, 0.42189702270560003, 0.35631035559982877, 0.5447213136522713, 0.4681166143725515, 0.3573140603557788, 0.4646548705590716, 0.44355045410047106, 0.4892057906870231, 0.5235515159121176 ], "bias": [ 61.86660758589748, 35.61319362626504, 32.46449075532156, 45.029103670336056, -279.1632575307068, 51.203369826538776, 28.58677267214, -69.42955539605383, -1.5270714884402703, -6.181945972948691, 0.3848788532548562, -27.653223717624076, 76.0227787835856, -105.72242409656633, 59.14849591208314, -68.20560765115614, 41.49003165160079, 111.81130951962065, -77.70564695048633, 24.587665805677297, -58.456165197552046, -32.16442308960097, 76.92667359021334, 59.11960168355549 ], "mae": [ 64.17507785086767, 60.360320520999274, 38.75323224859103, 46.82436057106849, 279.1632575307068, 59.30951104782012, 38.55007577334237, 71.47357002994612, 30.721005208261566, 37.11704545308463, 38.00411258066927, 42.721341727249005, 76.0227787835856, 106.76019435653635, 62.195136383239316, 69.30584159751673, 65.18831681733465, 111.81130951962065, 86.67814789159337, 40.08340934314347, 63.3905514175179, 52.91695042912303, 84.4882354776185, 60.595251156049784 ], "mse": [ 5241.372258774861, 5882.9167158781775, 2192.1097338850464, 2737.009538667623, 89461.43236245333, 4337.820957770447, 2454.672688434799, 7102.248265413885, 1528.3558092059377, 2514.12447728307, 2132.1498486381497, 3000.4424645952445, 6813.728596828203, 17496.533021849573, 6320.869922352588, 8785.048325847669, 5554.796835045408, 16522.71133549358, 12256.976567863632, 2497.6857598061297, 5966.5719065697895, 3805.258536138012, 9493.59267055429, 4446.364879774598 ], "var": [ 6807.452722723367, 17967.624467730897, 7733.980990436588, 7079.313178997017, 9893.144146700131, 6602.861824924358, 7930.793026736668, 6858.135779673784, 6080.5481217695815, 8315.787620714184, 9426.319064880638, 10064.628071704125, 5851.732286499894, 8892.207245330605, 8760.274270368487, 5090.206334426496, 11014.184572756632, 6351.3758518565055, 8447.996182815474, 8861.62841828375, 9717.334634876932, 7465.068854774777, 24624.0029771421, 5163.440009269547 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.002649394721830075, 0.007458946558971864, 0.0, 0.00118464351204227, 0.005083996598698297, 0.002441155850610579, 0.00020919833517401464, 0.0, 0.00013946555678267524, 0.0018090709705159075, 0.0005581803355002425, 0.0, 0.0011860229009778827, 0.0004884222698761392, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002790801807759168, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 49.03734659841725, "crpss": 0.14762256287793585, "rps": 0.3838842724293586, "rpss": 0.1536513019825192, "mean_bias_mm": -0.9147644647935588, "mean_mae_mm": 70.2753764048119, "mean_rmse_mm": 97.58432111920867, "spread_error_ratio": 0.9699148417823308, "zero_fraction": 0.0009786490746564941, "correlation": 0.49278624959711304, "pit_histogram": [ 0.07427, 0.10698, 0.11346, 0.12006, 0.12012, 0.0977, 0.08891, 0.08216, 0.09085, 0.1055 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.13222877717048928 } }, "operational": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 26.28088027175374, 23.21933498639882, 77.72586357235694, 19.376719054204894, 28.849117529216585, 25.549118318105013, 69.38658043356021, 50.900686371051485 ], "crps_clim": [ 24.186278935163696, 25.3510236438784, 115.19291638908858, 23.883905041341485, 31.83506561734916, 24.11958582957673, 108.55164002965007, 36.322116319494704 ], "rps": [ 0.4226780337843869, 0.41516613893598586, 0.37707744436498286, 0.3189895954752896, 0.4534277204442044, 0.40377668563388336, 0.335059421405757, 0.6706745171252093 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.41765960837363175, 0.4211483967453936, 0.5533032169639418, 0.44730768376472113, 0.4625683819363159, 0.41678104776399905, 0.5158924087479178, 0.42890010225976694 ], "bias": [ 0.24092050001328855, -5.996149739416535, -102.32486813793903, 8.326311453511344, 7.804728621221188, 28.947629083998102, -77.31629093989028, -59.39263094988729 ], "mae": [ 35.014717124625165, 29.583867366600234, 103.88109706367122, 25.197516486496145, 43.893866654814325, 40.52674436714977, 94.22935377180414, 64.24022600166252 ], "mse": [ 1890.8234380563981, 1525.2771039028096, 14924.456363380306, 1138.0518287724578, 2845.511460312442, 2617.9563582355795, 14876.34224534987, 7029.124489885256 ], "var": [ 5736.366598056195, 4861.864729735025, 11231.474313610848, 5154.936040633874, 3867.8265144130214, 6782.022973500464, 9295.836683107224, 4306.456181034118 ], "zero": [ 0.0010654186225945563, 0.002623619838730209, 1.3252809970768754e-05, 0.0003575676717458916, 0.0009463178715085289, 0.0004099963962185886, 5.2345856050375336e-05, 0.001064158328610431 ] }, "crps": 40.16103756708096, "crpss": 0.1750045916991061, "rps": 0.4246061946462124, "rpss": 0.07280110814502738, "mean_bias_mm": -24.96379376354865, "mean_mae_mm": 54.57092360460294, "mean_rmse_mm": 76.52413286661202, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0457973108489778, "zero_fraction": 0.0008165846744286687, "correlation": 0.41419483676176905, "pit_histogram": [ 0.01851, 0.05749, 0.07827, 0.09947, 0.11684, 0.10728, 0.10703, 0.10998, 0.12557, 0.17955 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.29251224439354034 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 31.94803229856411, 20.633041196639365, 71.10219177790502, 24.136828178552484, 31.933641456636842, 30.204880191878633, 83.84334763395826, 31.12308177208187 ], "crps_clim": [ 27.513828107781922, 30.99293899368493, 161.45686691829505, 27.920571148564072, 44.378057761090616, 29.766973014786096, 175.6320250314755, 25.22282617443876 ], "rps": [ 0.41007657033819406, 0.2842490182406851, 0.09705767435995923, 0.3384063100998973, 0.3529542788105453, 0.4162739737465427, 0.088191424938795, 0.43635524979897 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.37168677457254995, 0.40830736189644173, 0.5514955486398806, 0.4122454653654102, 0.5073582603125171, 0.4229682694777741, 0.5480141318493015, 0.3433109764761434 ], "bias": [ -21.977689769329835, 16.728470199990536, -90.89637885865464, 12.382666681344979, 56.388839134829304, 46.48098871471443, -108.8930574329718, -26.58478996663185 ], "mae": [ 35.876859933329015, 25.537948866227328, 94.8624579765474, 31.032596761031304, 57.35431977588019, 49.15614337072542, 116.88870013502999, 37.81802620394298 ], "mse": [ 1903.4193102557597, 974.450339006948, 12077.028264046758, 1455.6699377781408, 3987.6298132054453, 3682.5990209212227, 19015.908845470683, 2374.027368068906 ], "var": [ 8691.574813290104, 7155.466756132092, 20451.20526201775, 7286.297800106995, 6026.746094297181, 8249.395243720675, 15029.519359103348, 6001.302597644329 ], "zero": [ 0.0027319825295004305, 0.006558791867664013, 0.0, 0.0005129236979884707, 0.0024265803483136373, 0.0006835238147619041, 0.0, 0.002493327485460344 ] }, "crps": 40.61563056327707, "crpss": 0.3785906810108519, "rps": 0.3029455625416986, "rpss": 0.3202520107805692, "mean_bias_mm": -14.546368912088612, "mean_mae_mm": 56.065881627839204, "mean_rmse_mm": 75.391256869376, "spread_error_ratio": 1.317192203631177, "zero_fraction": 0.0019258912179611, "correlation": 0.8771371998080677, "pit_histogram": [ 0.00948, 0.069, 0.09994, 0.11061, 0.13008, 0.12893, 0.13838, 0.13308, 0.1085, 0.072 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.2991630638754247 } }, "full": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 28.95925288241861, 35.93320452409497, 30.130609643542815, 26.4512169306072, 154.95030709592046, 28.529356845531748, 31.863384887796386, 42.71612794901626, 19.321490838692203, 31.72769322438328, 29.277633650707823, 25.442900219358584, 35.64691159214253, 49.729040640707325, 43.79594062694655, 47.802649090496864, 31.34502185270215, 62.95377081719386, 41.26061300647847, 28.526091843337042, 32.84079616211867, 28.992185015448136, 36.56224913258309, 27.123686719029845, 26.413715824255057, 21.993668289525747, 74.87839585177288, 19.985743273833723, 28.50387846799342, 26.555175592679014, 67.20206467046772, 47.863628265360006 ], "crps_clim": [ 30.220473451764587, 39.917418564936064, 27.757568172072368, 37.802333372958124, 238.75051318915055, 37.61181929878509, 37.616082531632294, 37.23600638646016, 21.306686770765648, 28.4780000830409, 25.20476923730856, 24.600584384519205, 37.81772054414582, 61.83148106658277, 29.811614275645827, 41.56571447524313, 29.657529779748423, 47.67275462965923, 43.64083140619902, 27.6391470098042, 34.1009877354789, 28.817911129816427, 35.16768869621822, 33.87686011313925, 25.87047943593951, 26.437105491714817, 114.62794696826606, 26.4205712229385, 33.14461289262585, 24.563582570388807, 107.27766982133843, 35.50441102323164 ], "rps": [ 0.4420966570354232, 0.3881732982039876, 0.4886497174039291, 0.3851044600435921, 0.1175685808830774, 0.3696682854812935, 0.39791584218936565, 0.5436984704169675, 0.3624403361614111, 0.4660670079507541, 0.4605911095235777, 0.3971248631476529, 0.4930951048624652, 0.3587252447858994, 0.6577466057861507, 0.5565998899229524, 0.40090189268396037, 0.7337660601781234, 0.4321869169036647, 0.4378847951589179, 0.398217453632694, 0.4486742517321827, 0.35051574210886044, 0.41381529617029067, 0.4126687233393917, 0.37415989874922007, 0.3555560898488534, 0.3173531954543141, 0.4274150795191442, 0.40772714445432595, 0.32258993734788594, 0.6285070984010024 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.42752784364987473, 0.47525412925412475, 0.4178646042147745, 0.4860452399955733, 0.5615292811104182, 0.4629144820543785, 0.4720919884684642, 0.46355275516950334, 0.3602950493837294, 0.41093548411809694, 0.39925120731108465, 0.3862724441100123, 0.4981591164438388, 0.48945929833950264, 0.4479384312130977, 0.4604687964566817, 0.402555507760245, 0.5325649512878922, 0.46103987989217676, 0.4197441009203777, 0.4304978343784619, 0.45092626124868035, 0.4260850230367853, 0.4774252618219362, 0.4145131464744774, 0.4091714328578628, 0.5607984489124369, 0.46414258203020875, 0.45688333757744265, 0.4028824114723692, 0.5188382677855484, 0.41855246264432233 ], "bias": [ 25.547630857373843, 43.60660167029639, 30.813513932759523, 38.56051430646408, -194.7184113073712, 5.593482990398526, -2.9553987784178575, -47.305618159643345, 9.924979127949937, 32.098414213619385, 26.681991661737506, -8.93546320531067, 58.596784714352665, -64.95839667153354, 67.09522676578382, -48.15830073584906, 20.05693740679817, 97.46033869387686, -4.153219463869224, 31.037810553086697, -30.15307988025601, -25.449600943193982, 51.319748734467396, 35.46580028496446, 6.08190145900103, -0.6314310981746931, -99.95275525551614, 14.299651406475425, 13.992017736962943, 36.82404569642109, -75.06529055170593, -55.53776241157128 ], "mae": [ 45.24432442873636, 55.38849526678606, 45.428325809311644, 44.055292833561445, 194.8446018374154, 45.849747686711204, 47.232724021324046, 56.178238649246424, 27.404777960304003, 51.12058483347494, 44.19193677157468, 31.6252500220726, 59.27037506372102, 69.54902497675087, 68.27526396305197, 63.12176467245749, 48.77063066337482, 97.46535228538251, 59.99753476992938, 44.068289879448166, 40.81026116845282, 38.61102379717336, 58.50350479629542, 45.04510519167241, 35.0415885079206, 28.457233714052535, 101.17357030374323, 28.226255997770668, 44.279166481825875, 43.74057587231492, 92.40060710092831, 60.78138066043567 ], "mse": [ 3225.8280832414493, 5016.843011487616, 3392.104052247086, 2790.020661477265, 53466.805654993266, 3299.726955257501, 3969.0972101180887, 4785.0019383846875, 1168.0789661757838, 4041.8048896575315, 3261.2754398839293, 1724.005204354948, 5252.4146880418875, 9734.21020718682, 7269.990258309469, 6905.674761409535, 3691.1193254431923, 13588.785613266511, 6616.272788206995, 3079.2378586018244, 2992.72211528412, 2440.4163452722514, 5620.574670196093, 3041.6645568764166, 1920.7300988225086, 1358.5641196022539, 14089.21662184913, 1274.2423627761998, 2907.807322783533, 2837.885330739347, 14302.590583324354, 6291.103302085044 ], "var": [ 5569.616413798394, 10329.576381615132, 5362.371560640519, 5144.099803226674, 7268.632547387334, 4411.332358221339, 6238.149633534265, 5254.508738506036, 4030.0270504499476, 7435.533441088455, 7279.99527117586, 6710.100339084896, 4047.2379928382943, 6022.610428644501, 5468.332386824725, 3271.8354613802644, 7828.719804448601, 5690.873606377552, 6167.320977129078, 5481.084179342115, 6838.670904362408, 5699.563885438341, 11958.641291093776, 3779.8518585469888, 5944.921030463941, 5111.040900439149, 10752.190896971522, 5342.638395218291, 3957.5136470592056, 7089.37602999015, 8745.345679367809, 4424.787840762298 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009243862279867197, 0.002745838163049248, 0.0, 0.0003258938898568866, 0.0021128255382881263, 0.0007607813515736625, 8.158317255086161e-05, 0.0, 2.7194390850286974e-05, 0.0005969802580111051, 0.00013607628713073705, 0.0, 0.00032654342803682885, 0.0001632706779810247, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.162210068405057e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0011984320177923127, 0.00259699221699972, 0.0, 0.00021309813169289248, 0.0008264349459871175, 0.000304538123270783, 0.0, 0.0011184280140091615 ] }, "crps": 39.5399501695982, "crpss": 0.11639414865229147, "rps": 0.4296001577962916, "rpss": 0.04970047097169039, "mean_bias_mm": -0.4036667578007247, "mean_mae_mm": 56.75477531210065, "mean_rmse_mm": 80.10848406172342, "spread_error_ratio": 0.9835532732630353, "zero_fraction": 0.0004544037167422352, "correlation": 0.30922936778514915, "pit_histogram": [ 0.09837, 0.10828, 0.10333, 0.10528, 0.10524, 0.09622, 0.09207, 0.09052, 0.08834, 0.11234 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.06896692020626914 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 38.831343305773494, 41.228780450045605, 27.042089027695347, 27.16910723399713, 206.16405974277257, 33.27760273855128, 25.30093754283006, 52.176709041088955, 23.255236273998058, 28.710939957211327, 27.895637181893356, 35.52670979904425, 45.55891359650357, 73.08282677903811, 39.42758342879076, 49.85643714810801, 36.682364288735755, 74.34260686648646, 64.63989573992477, 28.170386965830897, 48.696266848020066, 35.81408665865817, 51.52977748708275, 36.474248371662604, 31.84156944823425, 21.19145955600166, 70.6438328325207, 25.03093478264302, 34.76182217819127, 31.7670584142645, 85.19681089501933, 30.421518823652953 ], "crps_clim": [ 43.05674508597644, 47.02174056492448, 28.84873411344585, 52.31210697339705, 337.83045973804184, 54.55256595155876, 38.94875701090369, 39.57782058741483, 27.74569141249191, 34.126369417367485, 27.450347808492733, 34.017006869578225, 52.72584373838084, 95.1322901374424, 31.016202641442625, 46.77726687336443, 28.68599867750331, 67.63450525795584, 70.45970873133518, 29.076021275933627, 49.86214141911897, 34.70899724260007, 55.60856424824002, 45.9400310845385, 29.402894877394107, 33.32071549456562, 163.04105609314394, 29.873009959301736, 48.200340322444724, 32.07710679517107, 177.18917611869378, 26.893576505878865 ], "rps": [ 0.47639796638014636, 0.30101203717783304, 0.3895559260160576, 0.30054860776363257, 0.05849035329456373, 0.32568984930664086, 0.29584374181926193, 0.6104951433387162, 0.33702618025663256, 0.30763903926558167, 0.37134628915519236, 0.414227073353387, 0.4968200352456649, 0.33320848758642885, 0.48284660275492475, 0.4826736746765569, 0.3970309812033114, 0.6329487087632482, 0.41224722075828707, 0.30318968733812046, 0.4331468005113131, 0.47331709621200985, 0.16963310792348368, 0.4567595554487495, 0.4081631742804065, 0.27654734022276745, 0.08683149687120423, 0.3433669958454126, 0.37563711277320466, 0.41460397866183696, 0.07746821904474782, 0.40464708211734374 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4903301532167852, 0.44204091246608007, 0.3821454984532625, 0.5431907333012903, 0.5629552549427677, 0.538931603827915, 0.47718465303177104, 0.4269517164665013, 0.3648511299187768, 0.3588689197908303, 0.356723031227705, 0.4013877968759663, 0.5457092532164318, 0.5530781005304259, 0.3883080341726342, 0.41667877142632664, 0.33834680801777955, 0.5610985777523381, 0.4668682110446354, 0.34014334800184304, 0.464044269131601, 0.43822125796975975, 0.5000883325693602, 0.5339534977340119, 0.3734059025504393, 0.40314128440280195, 0.5592508943098848, 0.414709381099934, 0.516605453040115, 0.4212120203974677, 0.5555451413875876, 0.33021111911934736 ], "bias": [ 65.07999124453579, 39.18828518889622, 35.60203812212107, 48.212565196414864, -261.62913286270026, 54.031451538946484, 31.434988592485546, -65.5584476555084, 2.201524732829591, -2.1378769761099985, 4.18374662177293, -23.399852742837638, 78.76571695819688, -100.10993907085758, 62.04603545776214, -64.29405394718212, 45.21745470002082, 113.51398287871403, -73.28787287122977, 28.009190478110312, -54.33099228791957, -28.27933193255978, 79.23234953085024, 62.49382116611994, -19.213138639110966, 20.40647668039194, -91.60990968698246, 15.892696841627128, 61.62116403183895, 51.34123594146637, -112.0351704805274, -24.67158712391983 ], "mae": [ 67.03291895816278, 59.474561034379526, 40.82946679298606, 49.86393392623396, 261.62913286270026, 62.00085752333972, 39.813737729891564, 68.04643752314144, 29.849785977341654, 38.98264902216435, 38.71641909890941, 42.18799230056024, 78.76571695819688, 101.54449746486831, 64.31263496277262, 65.99748686884044, 67.11043639907503, 113.51398287871403, 83.66934748057609, 41.57510442115589, 60.292774575451446, 49.90158334018934, 86.32308718905422, 63.530855471339095, 34.87392203181651, 27.555791212744573, 94.7222003053905, 34.05473951161044, 62.39615683685856, 53.00769436242385, 118.82749964248463, 36.66354325177788 ], "mse": [ 5654.690191650383, 5656.117039283723, 2366.8567557324654, 3077.150008375302, 79342.61858982313, 4651.85647887045, 2580.263355433062, 6545.293839816776, 1436.7951172633202, 2579.3649047283143, 2167.277738516425, 2885.6760362031773, 7267.279115698006, 16215.570093502822, 6535.426575242649, 8398.742520337259, 5797.169920864417, 16656.172745471587, 11639.926799205788, 2646.7574982897504, 5456.6275361669395, 3471.06351144275, 9982.724506526836, 4887.682192470853, 1824.7389604652783, 1100.639003863578, 12053.336505494643, 1686.761534501181, 4653.846114715791, 4092.7944652272417, 19676.857185974484, 2239.792552120234 ], "var": [ 6879.663350330625, 17703.582069551583, 7645.089159984066, 7184.677723924537, 11836.564560721077, 6665.411177426669, 7869.091045037821, 6835.99045486226, 6205.6406731125835, 8347.61061122666, 9423.217476555525, 10113.531362511128, 5895.0634628141825, 9195.31263150176, 8833.412785245648, 5135.033237441067, 11023.704729140069, 6335.340299212487, 8570.371410233842, 8781.506026657886, 9658.125974772202, 7392.711281752909, 24205.811015275587, 5243.661854625938, 9022.633131104392, 7451.319823006136, 19596.72494454648, 7412.294650935317, 6132.679868968152, 8467.941503153592, 13877.922419738788, 6127.525080996982 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0023703424849291005, 0.007040971249421099, 0.0, 0.0008356681539804172, 0.003901522846824365, 0.001743922422657405, 0.00020919833517401464, 0.0, 6.973277839133762e-05, 0.0013918846244459029, 0.00034893142586069656, 0.0, 0.0008373337217884253, 0.000418664204252036, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00020929815601206168, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0030730599840927504, 0.006524623417149846, 0.0, 0.0005129236979884716, 0.0021191724889387843, 0.0005808999359356142, 0.0, 0.002800288538905225 ] }, "crps": 46.30342354388347, "crpss": 0.22549847332445028, "rps": 0.36404248641770837, "rpss": 0.19471769944487327, "mean_bias_mm": -0.6900809491982649, "mean_mae_mm": 66.78334212234847, "mean_rmse_mm": 91.04049054426254, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0547568053428205, "zero_fraction": 0.001093388702085861, "correlation": 0.6240449269962876, "pit_histogram": [ 0.06314, 0.10623, 0.11206, 0.12196, 0.11922, 0.10635, 0.09884, 0.09061, 0.09141, 0.09018 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.13163377751221855 } }, "distribution_full": { "ethiopia": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 0.997777422489406, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.002853021520407305 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9378569293857774, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.07437848079495306 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9146946547771055, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.1258800136694811 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0402956906601941, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.06393790285860287 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0231299298199108, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.07102612935354333 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": 0.00045440371674223515 } }, "ondj_domain": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9965481158172919, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.004058297603205426 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9266897760444489, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.08234889735717638 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.8879072083694396, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.15376709310255693 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 1.048656252428826, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.06882594885041628 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0050793507124451, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.07698311079430221 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": 0.001093388702085861 } } } }, "pt": { "training": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 29.108950410251904, 34.56193669272784, 27.27896482185777, 23.653916547384767, 172.71142305797693, 30.535874823018304, 33.38246809724595, 47.59724075290417, 19.517547627078667, 29.863729000410864, 26.93718823336603, 27.43530131193623, 31.010577979560104, 54.954948413922224, 38.699727070108246, 50.902725272695655, 31.221818672493026, 57.394686149222046, 40.71247274793548, 26.760706402390262, 37.395953636224, 34.73716190226417, 39.18300766199779, 24.721647457240273 ], "crps_clim": [ 29.83323453860368, 38.88077881844172, 26.1795875687868, 36.08822373966346, 249.9992360568139, 38.426875463916396, 39.04498825040786, 38.65484959473932, 21.062619481737414, 26.341700917326186, 23.043072155361166, 23.761208131674348, 35.758076339617475, 65.51443181552213, 28.07427178189838, 41.19686340465451, 28.3419383709928, 45.95970122915301, 42.821914300357065, 27.103313627542445, 35.0043497136804, 30.34929072242817, 36.1179019010588, 32.50133398998652 ], "rps": [ 0.4456458753143922, 0.3687892919597156, 0.4548042648877411, 0.347591555727661, 0.13896488728331782, 0.3963545443460003, 0.40781931879445643, 0.5991616901675999, 0.3686435958325518, 0.4343357492062835, 0.4341825023560645, 0.4250036499251021, 0.4324317875670735, 0.42644696698540097, 0.5927059776947051, 0.6006160124571835, 0.40533408878009736, 0.6563388726429875, 0.4302068928060693, 0.39115365980077293, 0.4627866096530249, 0.5298475249988612, 0.3593061416261639, 0.37931087555898424 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.43952109738446665, 0.4701037173237654, 0.4169699152477682, 0.47870260421034994, 0.5456974480225605, 0.4718891921569669, 0.47528498795368085, 0.4682080375922366, 0.3831343617912619, 0.4088195337833923, 0.40159350714274034, 0.3947124470194672, 0.4905254609590217, 0.4972930221700924, 0.4454260522581055, 0.4580123165551393, 0.4122169895751251, 0.5190225120513517, 0.4587331615402525, 0.4177409087656852, 0.44718476038056587, 0.4632550515537808, 0.44214926963850176, 0.47013731210450704 ], "bias": [ 18.43436828795949, 39.73348298779352, 22.899144785425936, 31.35433351656682, -210.18381129392114, -2.566691493465397, -10.426605246598642, -55.23504843195544, 1.7702501797073953, 26.201574614777, 20.0181341054823, -16.601847546660384, 50.995403369154246, -72.88006123453565, 60.64645185139711, -57.583191568126715, 15.00343365153231, 91.84649405228154, -11.870044886135704, 23.512436955154335, -37.64078256818055, -33.28768187143793, 57.69920618924519, 27.34567122881301 ], "mae": [ 44.898370491406816, 54.517399537447574, 40.66847534783621, 39.27187851278152, 210.2032512593713, 47.8823586038948, 48.47448921574409, 61.0752686586821, 27.12900940716809, 47.105814012263956, 40.04827236285108, 32.61215272857579, 52.33913825833331, 76.3138475438988, 62.84724978783639, 66.70523764990135, 47.63115073956652, 92.12085228551418, 57.25345053785374, 40.92004529217408, 45.261623997283316, 45.13693621997249, 67.55413784727962, 41.273301063543705 ], "mse": [ 3073.447651281814, 5009.703027691673, 2837.2975194798996, 2245.3635011280326, 60710.525213873174, 3572.764091249714, 4266.918516306002, 5511.089774818987, 1173.1441575583617, 3518.7200513781895, 2644.5749252248897, 1836.6901950892693, 4233.534952994281, 11078.502663435713, 6388.670423483555, 7633.471568483322, 3630.520996094937, 12800.013054922842, 6396.380407700224, 2866.0846724988355, 3562.774945224024, 3173.7748222303408, 7766.812658844805, 2538.179042277406 ], "var": [ 6303.181591204294, 13415.451239191878, 5822.8194226399755, 5239.758907242861, 6285.287903635564, 4499.676190187548, 6575.945078582702, 5901.902486362298, 4125.481471483214, 8615.502348900425, 8570.17440463597, 7254.371857171978, 4275.513433450621, 6848.634310328471, 6149.898980501853, 3360.9559198056536, 9938.19021716369, 6511.3008243773065, 7184.432675625323, 6128.572088950431, 7930.320457513727, 6646.6188789463295, 19927.090178527735, 3867.660012583809 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 40.42833228092553, "crpss": 0.06709209386556081, "rps": 0.4369909306821755, "rpss": 0.035724476896201174, "mean_bias_mm": -0.8673075152386384, "mean_mae_mm": 57.8851546400492, "mean_rmse_mm": 83.7826948205073, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0085989877147266, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.25530811417210575, "pit_histogram": [ 0.09044, 0.10231, 0.1012, 0.10252, 0.1042, 0.10149, 0.0966, 0.09679, 0.09267, 0.11179 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.047027205944908765 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 35.076604835066185, 43.732816483787616, 25.046580036152562, 24.775863276586534, 228.24152323088026, 30.940526987414568, 24.354481991520718, 57.16874433186803, 24.053229597341783, 28.721598260166942, 28.2555877617458, 37.74591197645909, 41.51395286701585, 78.18855387066371, 37.37663642502621, 54.35772821224405, 35.78333836404353, 70.29216526592016, 69.46845516900703, 27.385081667564553, 54.135126134902556, 40.54173245247147, 57.271366574147955, 32.39340751654849 ], "crps_clim": [ 42.28827155959033, 47.03475528721915, 28.118112914314686, 51.435856466268575, 352.79501684228853, 53.54974195536778, 38.362106175221676, 39.349051348043986, 27.402303306971245, 33.04226475208313, 26.16461609134499, 33.51963055426904, 51.74936172381692, 99.15164309867102, 30.1279091186148, 46.27450144046246, 27.396128860915656, 66.68806658106446, 71.89082190601232, 28.449906713101416, 50.156317986314725, 34.37176519545435, 56.19481769512508, 45.209077740680264 ], "rps": [ 0.4063392821761856, 0.3165588353737126, 0.35670372685946033, 0.26080206444153226, 0.07253401455865088, 0.27225863180050197, 0.27460130902993346, 0.666460925618285, 0.3476465765029686, 0.30389023931764314, 0.3570142678028653, 0.4358732827632443, 0.42603786901598373, 0.3909973304307401, 0.46151512858792526, 0.5470423386422801, 0.39499618136368625, 0.5566493560994591, 0.47319590094965547, 0.29431948626923954, 0.5019995051141047, 0.546705202793162, 0.17596803825273472, 0.38352519425501347 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4819055012071629, 0.444711644142145, 0.3912256783048537, 0.5314847003061296, 0.5463137996219283, 0.5246370496095673, 0.46799085581035055, 0.43018330198082794, 0.37903088404294777, 0.37602959074729786, 0.3657108710730794, 0.4071905831264576, 0.5346883545994874, 0.5378418884618463, 0.397580420764294, 0.42189702270560003, 0.35631035559982877, 0.5447213136522713, 0.4681166143725515, 0.3573140603557788, 0.4646548705590716, 0.44355045410047106, 0.4892057906870231, 0.5235515159121176 ], "bias": [ 59.56165558899459, 41.492174823048565, 30.230630552330847, 43.70361187108807, -279.7830976930969, 49.3258193888599, 27.981519566740793, -71.4161698181283, -3.613396332831102, -8.036614381356356, -0.5598675266034406, -28.58509795374612, 73.51736158495238, -106.39637792384293, 58.48405485609233, -71.13232451009198, 42.169514823659135, 110.08364338491387, -79.3098131791583, 23.056875138996386, -59.962519255650825, -34.80427915324521, 101.95922618396276, 56.10709951276784 ], "mae": [ 61.99373911554953, 63.159780584656374, 37.06172278749297, 45.550092004946315, 279.7830976930969, 57.8052366284711, 38.48520443025937, 73.17671271285073, 30.650827952964562, 36.93669807839985, 38.152908430593364, 43.238415103110654, 73.53378095450826, 107.61908300170269, 61.7995455840739, 71.92816896742205, 66.71010908317614, 110.08364338491387, 87.59531096684297, 39.26346623586827, 64.62606989818762, 54.89543070833857, 107.04815857581895, 57.835731238574255 ], "mse": [ 4898.439259410664, 6321.783677653262, 2053.232549660036, 2590.5700373169893, 89986.86672443265, 4170.1395330126015, 2415.3684946516223, 7381.840732965966, 1532.9449121631787, 2520.7959886758467, 2156.694231757045, 3074.703198754811, 6404.0855762402525, 17697.69082625469, 6293.726771439822, 9128.239111424224, 5867.642628029622, 16333.604061312406, 12506.098722698722, 2437.1364246181583, 6164.1393051688265, 4045.795016230871, 14813.622134416903, 4093.5618315431066 ], "var": [ 7233.225244061385, 23748.056717379644, 8113.434379865849, 6927.259417800269, 10386.864499171628, 6668.076623787638, 8112.646580224151, 7097.802070602084, 6133.455890360432, 9279.468529097858, 10638.933378040949, 10901.17235547119, 6069.586076788691, 10399.374099688404, 9687.32445330973, 5219.542596497821, 13691.66442933571, 6966.014235692274, 9899.472808011078, 9915.213496582443, 10974.548953616799, 8106.116444638631, 42370.763350262176, 5242.525290582033 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 49.4508755536894, "crpss": 0.14043451589902334, "rps": 0.38431811200079036, "rpss": 0.15269481696137954, "mean_bias_mm": -1.0802654354726684, "mean_mae_mm": 71.20553892174247, "mean_rmse_mm": 98.92941965315312, "spread_error_ratio": 1.039440870762449, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.4664511032859562, "pit_histogram": [ 0.08163, 0.09743, 0.10038, 0.11287, 0.11678, 0.10302, 0.09517, 0.08588, 0.10233, 0.10452 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.07980857800162525 } }, "operational": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 26.643850125264798, 23.45132572005493, 77.5068152180434, 19.277791672165392, 28.402362893237488, 25.49305142291033, 68.28222680793675, 52.43026573400393 ], "crps_clim": [ 24.186278935163696, 25.3510236438784, 115.19291638908858, 23.883905041341485, 31.83506561734916, 24.11958582957673, 108.55164002965007, 36.322116319494704 ], "rps": [ 0.4226073803085252, 0.42294049788544424, 0.39100733738996196, 0.3072452034179785, 0.44846370811865444, 0.3953700025928942, 0.34297290285867627, 0.6951089042266424 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.41765960837363175, 0.4211483967453936, 0.5533032169639418, 0.44730768376472113, 0.4625683819363159, 0.41678104776399905, 0.5158924087479178, 0.42890010225976694 ], "bias": [ -0.7914810885393305, -7.672089469622557, -96.95385113138155, 6.417186006788668, 5.899060150078906, 29.37725822685512, -71.93589462709225, -61.452325294509414 ], "mae": [ 35.05018949175139, 29.511440906734517, 99.09962325774136, 24.232648538611993, 43.15635302669943, 40.81610083880986, 90.34717407634324, 65.79081487241356 ], "mse": [ 1891.4991915284777, 1528.6289837881345, 14044.706790771239, 1094.871130245218, 2760.2092779871855, 2680.2333211964515, 13735.295382798977, 7294.961721804756 ], "var": [ 6425.269530744977, 5252.711866809185, 15909.385992591258, 5572.603705366318, 4098.750045355038, 7901.130689810581, 12930.91828113217, 4517.839867760172 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 40.185961199202126, "crpss": 0.1744926058714542, "rps": 0.42821449209984713, "rpss": 0.06492178503887058, "mean_bias_mm": -24.6390171534278, "mean_mae_mm": 53.50054312613817, "mean_rmse_mm": 75.02533388806114, "spread_error_ratio": 1.1791365473673032, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.415219705997362, "pit_histogram": [ 0.01455, 0.05358, 0.06502, 0.09495, 0.11702, 0.11672, 0.11799, 0.12368, 0.13057, 0.16593 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.3438158215461702 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 33.283956346522785, 20.00090315111254, 70.9033158449544, 23.614026260659983, 29.948743222020596, 29.066255191507622, 80.88571781282971, 32.22452750989093 ], "crps_clim": [ 27.513828107781922, 30.99293899368493, 161.45686691829505, 27.920571148564072, 44.378057761090616, 29.766973014786096, 175.6320250314755, 25.22282617443876 ], "rps": [ 0.42481464227736393, 0.27855681906355695, 0.10707342906172276, 0.3231992690070874, 0.3199857357579475, 0.3975376414481926, 0.0985629460655033, 0.4566203070632445 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.37168677457254995, 0.40830736189644173, 0.5514955486398806, 0.4122454653654102, 0.5073582603125171, 0.4229682694777741, 0.5480141318493015, 0.3433109764761434 ], "bias": [ -23.118744897517264, 14.924514542170783, -78.16739282262587, 10.28361863000485, 54.200987538358746, 45.16591773218782, -98.70509731892213, -28.558067128793954 ], "mae": [ 36.54861352423567, 24.86941047778424, 83.63874655761991, 29.822181459434812, 55.23220495987508, 48.28649987909827, 108.25631147037723, 38.76282845634961 ], "mse": [ 1963.9692343765175, 930.0782494285902, 10087.86638392406, 1382.9876417318599, 3746.383669569805, 3624.7350755882476, 16530.665903203124, 2533.964679098826 ], "var": [ 9450.187712922454, 7526.854146324424, 30603.008484204638, 7688.551618277251, 6139.7389336738825, 9026.77836368925, 21547.464701944555, 6070.324456201826 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 39.990930667437325, "crpss": 0.3881484382452639, "rps": 0.30079384871807735, "rpss": 0.32508001728018865, "mean_bias_mm": -12.996782965642126, "mean_mae_mm": 53.17709959809685, "mean_rmse_mm": 71.41485387939352, "spread_error_ratio": 1.5502319901771437, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.8781662360510001, "pit_histogram": [ 0.01387, 0.06388, 0.08604, 0.10182, 0.12286, 0.13849, 0.15156, 0.1553, 0.1154, 0.05079 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.370851433427895 } }, "full": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 28.329763876977204, 36.173348143904654, 29.660629829290613, 25.672794132517723, 151.50926622345187, 28.295466860327604, 31.634176013523664, 43.87470361588207, 19.281017145861274, 31.98059445582301, 29.534388962779378, 26.27004921479833, 34.37537120010246, 50.55470748925078, 42.97967545455332, 49.25425477278506, 31.449717836457378, 61.55803072397784, 41.942016780791725, 27.83327893699235, 34.439504267871314, 30.49351080865583, 38.79417584391707, 25.889378094165778, 26.618014629936308, 21.97989077876799, 74.18259564896564, 19.719975589292442, 27.9243106466525, 26.382284978960293, 65.7102239502933, 49.12215325674719 ], "crps_clim": [ 30.220473451764587, 39.917418564936064, 27.757568172072368, 37.802333372958124, 238.75051318915055, 37.61181929878509, 37.616082531632294, 37.23600638646016, 21.306686770765648, 28.4780000830409, 25.20476923730856, 24.600584384519205, 37.81772054414582, 61.83148106658277, 29.811614275645827, 41.56571447524313, 29.657529779748423, 47.67275462965923, 43.64083140619902, 27.6391470098042, 34.1009877354789, 28.817911129816427, 35.16768869621822, 33.87686011313925, 25.87047943593951, 26.437105491714817, 114.62794696826606, 26.4205712229385, 33.14461289262585, 24.563582570388807, 107.27766982133843, 35.50441102323164 ], "rps": [ 0.4335407748982072, 0.3848218326014474, 0.482549156821254, 0.3731449202419957, 0.11876192679815233, 0.3651803169772171, 0.3958317877092476, 0.5612825467133785, 0.3637706826675107, 0.46256830018732054, 0.4603101785390318, 0.4098117417233125, 0.4717510520930434, 0.3817970585784365, 0.6447187553435049, 0.5807506615914361, 0.400881771293422, 0.7056230743177961, 0.43903412814567094, 0.42690103771380783, 0.4211727605964856, 0.4719115876131106, 0.3532739815981038, 0.393095018469695, 0.4124721764772628, 0.3772897865125352, 0.36517801726300164, 0.30596299226575513, 0.42033926379174136, 0.3986603494350772, 0.3294377775488404, 0.6506379319067124 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.42752784364987473, 0.47525412925412475, 0.4178646042147745, 0.4860452399955733, 0.5615292811104182, 0.4629144820543785, 0.4720919884684642, 0.46355275516950334, 0.3602950493837294, 0.41093548411809694, 0.39925120731108465, 0.3862724441100123, 0.4981591164438388, 0.48945929833950264, 0.4479384312130977, 0.4604687964566817, 0.402555507760245, 0.5325649512878922, 0.46103987989217676, 0.4197441009203777, 0.4304978343784619, 0.45092626124868035, 0.4260850230367853, 0.4774252618219362, 0.4145131464744774, 0.4091714328578628, 0.5607984489124369, 0.46414258203020875, 0.45688333757744265, 0.4028824114723692, 0.5188382677855484, 0.41855246264432233 ], "bias": [ 24.21489698396387, 45.55094679344561, 29.72745970306976, 37.53318583423799, -191.89573830072908, 4.075686860212359, -3.3164666082243235, -48.219368256276546, 8.692732357375665, 32.16575604528377, 26.599681961969342, -10.014428743664839, 57.14723073325728, -65.50358059659801, 67.06097438493555, -50.239069152816555, 20.434875551239095, 97.44132604954157, -5.053888682618079, 30.100191252711113, -30.86043669693583, -26.633496622919612, 59.928957006669, 33.30958020958021, 5.099309459844278, -2.0662900200394994, -93.92094679099942, 12.562783093636789, 12.279506341309324, 37.22971290508998, -69.91012081692354, -57.389410037987034 ], "mae": [ 44.25839365200148, 56.232681671293044, 44.70915763945662, 43.22429452870807, 192.01007427764372, 45.38259810325217, 47.337808751636665, 56.925262727115445, 27.09940818455587, 51.619810667750194, 44.516876282167715, 31.92759693178396, 57.855713585804864, 70.1228796963107, 68.32275507473777, 64.97027867615795, 48.9484550796054, 97.44443343037915, 60.339844036194506, 43.247370374308105, 41.43796384510229, 39.49509390788385, 65.82274410311943, 43.40689048539652, 35.11250929147351, 28.208701974688783, 96.13960300966532, 27.222334617670853, 43.44365428747627, 44.11441771715183, 88.76928053005066, 62.21959781886852 ], "mse": [ 3057.994157221307, 5174.8292536431945, 3343.4309749655167, 2692.3431571722144, 51891.65393991319, 3239.464183106969, 3964.618103848228, 4893.935980525121, 1148.2432266614956, 4141.737888148881, 3308.6048745455737, 1758.763120671634, 5039.746820000239, 9849.77622230937, 7334.063608361265, 7212.945136976502, 3763.473710065313, 13704.962080742333, 6719.572613166472, 2994.8709676842377, 3084.029984315608, 2535.4919569511385, 7254.283804463867, 2828.370676896825, 1916.7536735218678, 1346.193039771907, 13123.071552791258, 1218.070148833123, 2795.8151462176284, 2898.029242003532, 13166.147396634324, 6521.332989958786 ], "var": [ 6176.061666205921, 12788.839232452086, 5763.045473674884, 5312.574537587564, 8466.168401869358, 4579.165253504351, 6640.012295352049, 5762.657366364124, 4202.710953163396, 8392.80236078318, 8308.128103740546, 7241.447963616611, 4288.107063803012, 6867.723323355461, 6077.844869160061, 3401.3522057842397, 9428.904732177072, 6388.637367144516, 7071.588635140794, 6043.1280358116155, 7731.32216719967, 6417.780057007076, 17261.266554680584, 3938.300106306868, 6513.451797289578, 5399.97621948153, 15497.556591572964, 5653.432960499509, 4129.623446845591, 8003.07033787764, 11831.325696761955, 4567.155390398684 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 39.48185219263356, "crpss": 0.11769247381904635, "rps": 0.4300769796385473, "rpss": 0.04864571444075616, "mean_bias_mm": -0.4333889937299933, "mean_mae_mm": 56.6215151549816, "mean_rmse_mm": 79.82845271895717, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0623514704166626, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.30135347007956115, "pit_histogram": [ 0.09085, 0.10196, 0.09989, 0.10445, 0.10845, 0.10096, 0.09737, 0.09764, 0.0922, 0.10622 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.04409210748327784 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 36.58028345139811, 42.75937631977573, 25.776872059288344, 25.830809044914176, 197.79629389616574, 32.16631248809219, 24.37229255139487, 54.16766988514759, 23.126679405854553, 28.730157193241048, 28.01482409814018, 36.69270685832137, 43.4201190721284, 74.67009508293346, 38.26804613747674, 52.03813006863448, 35.83934630214612, 71.84088750682615, 67.05311548218853, 27.425838786155133, 51.32498921633367, 38.221427118973665, 55.73770778769977, 34.20911732824449, 32.86634890611568, 20.337570406378877, 69.91000941022858, 24.243882004753345, 32.83571634892427, 30.392203540650044, 81.45117166698772, 31.252204631427542 ], "crps_clim": [ 43.05674508597644, 47.02174056492448, 28.84873411344585, 52.31210697339705, 337.83045973804184, 54.55256595155876, 38.94875701090369, 39.57782058741483, 27.74569141249191, 34.126369417367485, 27.450347808492733, 34.017006869578225, 52.72584373838084, 95.1322901374424, 31.016202641442625, 46.77726687336443, 28.68599867750331, 67.63450525795584, 70.45970873133518, 29.076021275933627, 49.86214141911897, 34.70899724260007, 55.60856424824002, 45.9400310845385, 29.402894877394107, 33.32071549456562, 163.04105609314394, 29.873009959301736, 48.200340322444724, 32.07710679517107, 177.18917611869378, 26.893576505878865 ], "rps": [ 0.44636920094089844, 0.31193133323169614, 0.3730630856135682, 0.2821280171523814, 0.06247044097789239, 0.30272281883217866, 0.2840270069529423, 0.6383813005547945, 0.33961664765698996, 0.3083332788094529, 0.368014957396989, 0.43309765147913126, 0.4625466865249591, 0.36720372092338316, 0.4692858843639401, 0.5144510524437789, 0.38679003006918133, 0.5907474079692017, 0.44578305408491864, 0.2937034263420257, 0.4696415769948615, 0.511520793896608, 0.17227368005683452, 0.420693461525929, 0.42202302287732385, 0.27059341477216886, 0.09586805653937651, 0.32643880165185585, 0.3448827374243078, 0.39355503390059815, 0.08579784936916172, 0.42420174588331033 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4903301532167852, 0.44204091246608007, 0.3821454984532625, 0.5431907333012903, 0.5629552549427677, 0.538931603827915, 0.47718465303177104, 0.4269517164665013, 0.3648511299187768, 0.3588689197908303, 0.356723031227705, 0.4013877968759663, 0.5457092532164318, 0.5530781005304259, 0.3883080341726342, 0.41667877142632664, 0.33834680801777955, 0.5610985777523381, 0.4668682110446354, 0.34014334800184304, 0.464044269131601, 0.43822125796975975, 0.5000883325693602, 0.5339534977340119, 0.3734059025504393, 0.40314128440280195, 0.5592508943098848, 0.414709381099934, 0.516605453040115, 0.4212120203974677, 0.5555451413875876, 0.33021111911934736 ], "bias": [ 62.68662676635066, 43.291778792133336, 33.25510272495352, 46.87665898315785, -255.1004959818028, 52.20419083201864, 30.839385783614404, -67.38124561740709, 0.24818964885542166, -4.250055145466232, 3.0794934022539024, -24.665182063127485, 76.3711186852399, -101.38564851758869, 61.09302455641101, -67.02957944955682, 45.07682376192175, 111.72607501181706, -75.10455262809815, 26.03869366026457, -56.076491750886085, -30.87412351889551, 96.38243897357788, 59.465025290167496, -20.401755467734837, 18.87323990450774, -77.33124721757665, 13.828088489976183, 59.56632262998212, 49.97325085046845, -102.43290519398893, -26.45871123020657 ], "mae": [ 64.71843424518262, 61.508320397733364, 38.989934618013045, 48.565230164658075, 255.1004959818028, 60.463971987843586, 39.52868862329159, 69.53050273701336, 29.414728186473425, 38.40896202682385, 38.68417521890032, 42.66677640053643, 76.3711186852399, 102.80553183851578, 63.613645497010026, 68.40926640194698, 67.60566006511587, 111.72607501181706, 84.82695595271728, 40.29683607352482, 61.73292292010024, 51.841703316994455, 101.78191318480772, 60.69503914194579, 35.558540520609675, 26.771409511811413, 82.99837314872525, 32.7275286498974, 60.386798621977945, 51.95849551081086, 110.66716587620986, 37.667454245280865 ], "mse": [ 5279.196161593746, 5962.466720410986, 2216.1531918584806, 2915.0662904082246, 75973.48171841711, 4467.058781523351, 2532.4137049508154, 6770.424524497043, 1411.666289030151, 2552.5497836410063, 2176.3737746962265, 2956.865804878723, 6853.279041519669, 16483.626142709185, 6492.085820360798, 8709.9515065937, 5956.941137541508, 16428.74157418307, 11932.661237699242, 2533.0757730217197, 5668.910513095885, 3678.4951668834124, 13575.137878478876, 4498.963777695258, 1878.543100838545, 1049.3164129888257, 9902.604496093145, 1591.9345633428009, 4391.170570787067, 4005.033754686789, 17205.254911234217, 2385.9411407861458 ], "var": [ 7164.515134051122, 22263.86770852819, 7875.654881632375, 7002.413992734052, 14651.855980858865, 6647.86091094969, 7943.238005551001, 6964.49937745517, 6212.594815468205, 9058.999574604033, 10415.1511410978, 10698.785323083493, 6033.048799171309, 10378.177245080899, 9521.549941718718, 5167.513386739088, 13042.649884212487, 6795.762419553618, 9740.54595388198, 9559.14794353722, 10573.906792998527, 7848.1936954462235, 36206.41303583496, 5258.721836578709, 9626.697203149079, 7642.438720409789, 30158.04997735191, 7621.201216171846, 6144.264340118802, 9036.740879433688, 19425.534283432098, 6040.115100206114 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 45.91725637677939, "crpss": 0.2319577594329737, "rps": 0.363067411787895, "rpss": 0.19687461895401026, "mean_bias_mm": -0.5505145323332457, "mean_mae_mm": 66.18820796135412, "mean_rmse_mm": 90.21422165920642, "spread_error_ratio": 1.147148913921713, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.6194842742124226, "pit_histogram": [ 0.071, 0.09698, 0.10034, 0.11374, 0.11891, 0.10838, 0.10494, 0.10025, 0.10232, 0.08314 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.09776310796260468 } }, "distribution_full": { "ethiopia": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9979794581987514, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.0032989401370614483 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9958518251770065, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.010755369915335183 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.8929598266290723, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.16326082817998888 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0174114768643139, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.05352024111572982 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0410870453446457, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.0814590322388012 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": 0.0 } }, "ondj_domain": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9975915048909916, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.003109299498093653 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9939331236867452, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.010450459548784695 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.91494794266548, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.14580219345379 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0116359722945976, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.054624849715318675 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.019094402718059, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.07982232290238189 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": 0.0 } } } }, "dc": { "training": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 26.854870283534083, 32.84332201958875, 26.52312095680292, 24.309594517332606, 168.20593436054958, 33.37796467839808, 34.926496084329095, 45.592455506499626, 19.91559890693408, 29.530724204539272, 26.328722982338395, 25.29814692128113, 29.560889778562114, 61.40533913489547, 33.59343561662637, 49.97974918068331, 28.61162565694291, 52.57079574240164, 40.1302652183906, 25.944780600589215, 36.332699817912776, 33.36058279949394, 29.47311498630555, 24.429176750590567 ], "crps_clim": [ 29.83323453860368, 38.88077881844172, 26.1795875687868, 36.08822373966346, 249.9992360568139, 38.426875463916396, 39.04498825040786, 38.65484959473932, 21.062619481737414, 26.341700917326186, 23.043072155361166, 23.761208131674348, 35.758076339617475, 65.51443181552213, 28.07427178189838, 41.19686340465451, 28.3419383709928, 45.95970122915301, 42.821914300357065, 27.103313627542445, 35.0043497136804, 30.34929072242817, 36.1179019010588, 32.50133398998652 ], "rps": [ 0.4171230094059227, 0.37908738507174045, 0.43430275116365463, 0.34148815976199354, 0.19062728558182498, 0.4523270077487739, 0.458736105005463, 0.6095856380300779, 0.36977445541611076, 0.4741665755264472, 0.45698981669715943, 0.4187072058039321, 0.4009894273256014, 0.46558898929248804, 0.5353478350652733, 0.6396132576665617, 0.39151203188021405, 0.6152700499828654, 0.42522312417643243, 0.3756855813204307, 0.4719749286176664, 0.5281945929960212, 0.34434151104017613, 0.37013506567291127 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.43952109738446665, 0.4701037173237654, 0.4169699152477682, 0.47870260421034994, 0.5456974480225605, 0.4718891921569669, 0.47528498795368085, 0.4682080375922366, 0.3831343617912619, 0.4088195337833923, 0.40159350714274034, 0.3947124470194672, 0.4905254609590217, 0.4972930221700924, 0.4454260522581055, 0.4580123165551393, 0.4122169895751251, 0.5190225120513517, 0.4587331615402525, 0.4177409087656852, 0.44718476038056587, 0.4632550515537808, 0.44214926963850176, 0.47013731210450704 ], "bias": [ 22.891796240916502, 28.962071383246286, 26.926106750207495, 38.04055028377706, -214.72268918387383, 3.6216916795710823, -4.620101449445998, -49.33516022296177, 7.6535129729250615, 24.83715145974223, 21.96100962639975, -13.762474101113305, 56.32485082622638, -74.58426407446564, 60.911421838585404, -50.2257928594329, 10.390936660320499, 92.86389666881401, -9.847798524218177, 22.546029132511478, -35.579898680977585, -29.106883533297886, 26.50154004403847, 33.78897801735834 ], "mae": [ 47.33123836430468, 51.3687318498187, 43.39447377815983, 45.23089037556988, 214.82483980283817, 52.54456673852691, 51.97245945481324, 56.990582427627366, 28.65252499348214, 45.817089852942686, 39.333744491239955, 31.175394001425545, 57.49744101281852, 77.63738027725802, 62.90140426926033, 60.856181443186756, 43.35525744715949, 93.1152399683238, 56.92922938274188, 40.72368410475367, 43.612423055294336, 42.178790490609614, 44.70682097280178, 45.88912119030832 ], "mse": [ 3510.4129472721447, 4506.525872806216, 3043.414460581396, 2929.205042226607, 65100.95155089742, 4201.189695765647, 4595.275416287129, 4867.135733662266, 1285.1673475516131, 3336.429823562965, 2543.420005481583, 1656.2585627327264, 4983.962025050423, 11314.794859184412, 6223.401967521906, 6695.4763244068145, 2997.210674857864, 12538.757819497085, 6247.813786352903, 2821.591008970434, 3322.8866219524375, 2823.6097532928, 3335.489064099816, 3147.2995979812827 ], "var": [ 7650.94834041478, 13583.652784817517, 8726.607271136509, 6227.489372392251, 11016.840236253789, 6558.370586538364, 6955.210201057266, 7408.642696782242, 7677.391780962549, 11299.799104172616, 8955.696934391477, 8131.3755935271065, 7721.692266024495, 10426.304655878308, 10476.48476739669, 7384.120376125664, 10922.656316768556, 9763.541711821636, 9430.5060130964, 11181.561030437788, 9258.134887385671, 8605.337072581608, 20674.05807721544, 6722.619408539808 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 39.12914194606342, "crpss": 0.09707168655675269, "rps": 0.4402829912604059, "rpss": 0.028460130628861102, "mean_bias_mm": -0.14847996021445908, "mean_mae_mm": 57.41831290605273, "mean_rmse_mm": 83.67289484504423, "spread_error_ratio": 1.1616943865999028, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.3059627999672961, "pit_histogram": [ 0.08951, 0.09357, 0.09754, 0.10245, 0.10339, 0.0975, 0.09708, 0.1012, 0.1125, 0.10526 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.04958974539520972 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 34.44149636135019, 41.04675807872243, 24.948625816534392, 28.294101622069324, 236.80810020698786, 35.81287932269319, 24.87472446838316, 51.24222412105327, 24.70480385393383, 31.6760349592401, 27.4022997994545, 35.406194544893, 40.810579736872725, 88.9178158593694, 32.78500088226145, 51.92822539914536, 33.62240373728354, 65.1322551827512, 67.63417836968044, 28.1180782421764, 52.1317223185064, 38.307946798893276, 38.4114714779196, 34.2073987979386 ], "crps_clim": [ 42.28827155959033, 47.03475528721915, 28.118112914314686, 51.435856466268575, 352.79501684228853, 53.54974195536778, 38.362106175221676, 39.349051348043986, 27.402303306971245, 33.04226475208313, 26.16461609134499, 33.51963055426904, 51.74936172381692, 99.15164309867102, 30.1279091186148, 46.27450144046246, 27.396128860915656, 66.68806658106446, 71.89082190601232, 28.449906713101416, 50.156317986314725, 34.37176519545435, 56.19481769512508, 45.209077740680264 ], "rps": [ 0.39734227265613725, 0.35172060813342226, 0.35070054163527886, 0.27782631310588174, 0.17278715318558274, 0.3202643457021747, 0.28950987358401753, 0.6099368083485531, 0.35471783055907546, 0.3460185114459384, 0.3681575646750378, 0.43228163337726105, 0.3974352413012363, 0.44392431550661565, 0.42453558681721587, 0.5257688734068204, 0.42200236928585566, 0.5135851000638725, 0.4420728707469012, 0.3285669809732231, 0.5038730346141785, 0.5224020370207064, 0.23009127874616536, 0.3890920445774193 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4819055012071629, 0.444711644142145, 0.3912256783048537, 0.5314847003061296, 0.5463137996219283, 0.5246370496095673, 0.46799085581035055, 0.43018330198082794, 0.37903088404294777, 0.37602959074729786, 0.3657108710730794, 0.4071905831264576, 0.5346883545994874, 0.5378418884618463, 0.397580420764294, 0.42189702270560003, 0.35631035559982877, 0.5447213136522713, 0.4681166143725515, 0.3573140603557788, 0.4646548705590716, 0.44355045410047106, 0.4892057906870231, 0.5235515159121176 ], "bias": [ 67.31688779344303, 16.619262253239512, 38.99510379223281, 56.871480066900624, -303.0930170959587, 61.806818584670424, 41.98008589577162, -57.39820862627406, 8.419240806262238, -8.130370391551754, 5.59050797847175, -25.08741817947819, 83.39847999958006, -111.49989321760346, 60.09301409554926, -57.8412931576431, 32.841346495502954, 117.10316408979064, -75.04991259556436, 19.936943964801873, -55.353403133585005, -25.39390698456858, 32.47588844983246, 67.43145773901287 ], "mae": [ 69.22141533039725, 56.81708800758221, 43.900300262377165, 58.17917061123655, 303.0930170959587, 69.0375002729101, 46.47700971856499, 63.38400137594019, 33.82758977540273, 36.10739147949147, 37.44601517155259, 41.13163139087738, 83.39847999958006, 111.7895225601204, 62.82796855675527, 61.8311955756862, 56.649558262631864, 117.10316408979064, 85.736820300976, 38.025211452199066, 60.690014703590684, 48.05361637994358, 53.33003173764501, 68.73566467234286 ], "mse": [ 6046.278060930654, 5446.119364532073, 2631.1034619131765, 4072.875549147171, 104252.71626060312, 5751.576000152141, 3072.2553277842844, 5805.896857625243, 1771.6756944490223, 2478.362409789776, 2015.9094084279568, 2732.102389274537, 8016.789539040603, 18431.152102756598, 6260.990761401365, 7872.635341270169, 4381.46777647002, 17080.172889227793, 12012.290354906281, 2217.900604779239, 5601.724140311978, 3236.3068399030403, 4529.234374978934, 5533.164584109425 ], "var": [ 12241.302079722776, 24639.08753618448, 12911.495318654277, 8373.657008230628, 18084.00958803479, 9302.708518871297, 9497.307910963276, 10385.291321529348, 10808.820382039698, 16756.136392393135, 12490.972058913561, 13489.065094573458, 11383.601923478187, 17139.60518895125, 15503.34427249443, 11709.574161522674, 18237.680264338025, 13083.206059708224, 15177.527461706308, 18825.859384921234, 14193.467683703246, 12892.513844471183, 36609.329423359806, 10737.790170827437 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 48.69438833158807, "crpss": 0.1535839353582551, "rps": 0.3922755495611905, "rpss": 0.1351510742178178, "mean_bias_mm": -0.3319892240485463, "mean_mae_mm": 71.11639078264804, "mean_rmse_mm": 100.26022393705139, "spread_error_ratio": 1.2121531810227035, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.49933509660169956, "pit_histogram": [ 0.06985, 0.09204, 0.10399, 0.11314, 0.1154, 0.10916, 0.10226, 0.09593, 0.1041, 0.09413 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.09610067858700577 } }, "operational": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 24.350048305292617, 22.746663318840852, 92.16810972487411, 17.846550504055152, 29.73232229426061, 23.181649731010886, 82.92302084468025, 50.75324944309969 ], "crps_clim": [ 24.186278935163696, 25.3510236438784, 115.19291638908858, 23.883905041341485, 31.83506561734916, 24.11958582957673, 108.55164002965007, 36.322116319494704 ], "rps": [ 0.39886690085478405, 0.4325564543838617, 0.4987298674476796, 0.30579205747447397, 0.48586085274635543, 0.40394181524714934, 0.39418058245517945, 0.7017612119039828 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.41765960837363175, 0.4211483967453936, 0.5533032169639418, 0.44730768376472113, 0.4625683819363159, 0.41678104776399905, 0.5158924087479178, 0.42890010225976694 ], "bias": [ 1.856248232037501, -1.2590551030073454, -116.07679805427584, 11.896786800401161, 11.702776647224262, 29.70140136304532, -91.46201636194843, -53.68807270876041 ], "mae": [ 33.486276921815055, 32.584953491, 117.18339711298981, 27.796107591408685, 47.97487717914701, 41.634867927211644, 106.93123639424007, 62.50349296828725 ], "mse": [ 1787.3484567669868, 1772.225307382383, 17995.313548012567, 1341.5768262892154, 3340.41048230722, 2673.814735011838, 19013.629926737103, 6661.226961643374 ], "var": [ 7924.438265584674, 6181.972026864111, 16000.933996859605, 6740.982383666541, 6890.122372086756, 9320.055519587626, 16354.49206821186, 5771.14731258154 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 42.96270177076427, "crpss": 0.11745229116954314, "rps": 0.45271121781418333, "rpss": 0.011429072914562521, "mean_bias_mm": -25.916091148160472, "mean_mae_mm": 58.761901198262436, "mean_rmse_mm": 82.60262272179277, "spread_error_ratio": 1.173611345444268, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.4120818163173928, "pit_histogram": [ 0.03086, 0.04954, 0.07519, 0.10167, 0.10864, 0.09816, 0.09445, 0.10711, 0.1416, 0.19279 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.30360572523808493 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 29.77646067972959, 19.792874561066355, 97.93717215597025, 23.55523633450597, 32.46889862925974, 27.50983723766877, 115.17255397912815, 28.22148612077917 ], "crps_clim": [ 27.513828107781922, 30.99293899368493, 161.45686691829505, 27.920571148564072, 44.378057761090616, 29.766973014786096, 175.6320250314755, 25.22282617443876 ], "rps": [ 0.404779339864076, 0.2901555695731057, 0.2318503791470304, 0.3426152626143366, 0.3529499149766148, 0.39646576027483893, 0.23290931824583003, 0.41067023145187675 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.37168677457254995, 0.40830736189644173, 0.5514955486398806, 0.4122454653654102, 0.5073582603125171, 0.4229682694777741, 0.5480141318493015, 0.3433109764761434 ], "bias": [ -17.63325854339707, 26.410327075252344, -124.01183996127742, 19.92262705996663, 65.28542251253404, 50.510049403840824, -141.01210849423424, -14.281507131115424 ], "mae": [ 33.07407127110661, 32.27382309955017, 126.8090420784107, 36.25021045330509, 66.12063537574109, 52.551977486759206, 146.85939636203895, 34.758029733152405 ], "mse": [ 1655.9683317498893, 1472.5110230226894, 19443.134408031216, 1850.4777375430554, 5094.895416051174, 3957.648088600281, 28882.5078256362, 1992.5272189509192 ], "var": [ 12324.226774348886, 9246.979657901124, 30823.364279734666, 11284.326769098354, 10387.280579700613, 12600.363471090557, 29583.39055661358, 9288.378830611608 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 46.8043149622635, "crpss": 0.28390530731410457, "rps": 0.33279947201846366, "rpss": 0.2532659332592101, "mean_bias_mm": -16.85128600980379, "mean_mae_mm": 66.08714823250803, "mean_rmse_mm": 89.68672564096751, "spread_error_ratio": 1.3967380948287496, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.8755372511262273, "pit_histogram": [ 0.02498, 0.0615, 0.09758, 0.12765, 0.12757, 0.10908, 0.10923, 0.1223, 0.13593, 0.08419 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.2634999463809399 } }, "full": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 26.202404953320055, 35.067394479499924, 28.68076044147018, 25.945424897172508, 155.84376955288192, 31.43583409101996, 33.0762741066061, 42.97709197490033, 20.24152626193688, 33.052786251673076, 29.57002633381355, 25.407766958107707, 32.11373104242879, 57.35448793807185, 37.05112469014192, 49.46829475599152, 29.47308644579626, 56.20178123603384, 41.814126698388684, 27.175520381592108, 34.90601941436271, 30.736755341748147, 30.823216232565184, 25.129241993952885, 25.577979917382255, 21.788923725005134, 90.29443367645034, 19.06451351068713, 29.328900881924238, 24.584769015499173, 80.77682655354982, 48.58550942356513 ], "crps_clim": [ 30.220473451764587, 39.917418564936064, 27.757568172072368, 37.802333372958124, 238.75051318915055, 37.61181929878509, 37.616082531632294, 37.23600638646016, 21.306686770765648, 28.4780000830409, 25.20476923730856, 24.600584384519205, 37.81772054414582, 61.83148106658277, 29.811614275645827, 41.56571447524313, 29.657529779748423, 47.67275462965923, 43.64083140619902, 27.6391470098042, 34.1009877354789, 28.817911129816427, 35.16768869621822, 33.87686011313925, 25.87047943593951, 26.437105491714817, 114.62794696826606, 26.4205712229385, 33.14461289262585, 24.563582570388807, 107.27766982133843, 35.50441102323164 ], "rps": [ 0.39196495831975375, 0.3923597785685881, 0.44822409238990235, 0.3502084723335881, 0.17827605097313992, 0.4131906890454472, 0.4381577670675523, 0.5747501210539856, 0.36269449985393615, 0.5049304651249771, 0.47597778935813706, 0.4099393645240944, 0.41573302299991266, 0.4314153802997671, 0.5594092275279493, 0.6207771410220855, 0.38073381460281547, 0.6463492734719484, 0.44435892163604085, 0.3976112997259597, 0.44209362481917064, 0.48568798604044633, 0.3397441372324945, 0.3657160261863968, 0.39544813091874026, 0.3912502401381196, 0.4712325973880629, 0.3062031530758229, 0.4486448210607152, 0.40721423130765255, 0.37696733118535036, 0.6680291160746973 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.42752784364987473, 0.47525412925412475, 0.4178646042147745, 0.4860452399955733, 0.5615292811104182, 0.4629144820543785, 0.4720919884684642, 0.46355275516950334, 0.3602950493837294, 0.41093548411809694, 0.39925120731108465, 0.3862724441100123, 0.4981591164438388, 0.48945929833950264, 0.4479384312130977, 0.4604687964566817, 0.402555507760245, 0.5325649512878922, 0.46103987989217676, 0.4197441009203777, 0.4304978343784619, 0.45092626124868035, 0.4260850230367853, 0.4774252618219362, 0.4145131464744774, 0.4091714328578628, 0.5607984489124369, 0.46414258203020875, 0.45688333757744265, 0.4028824114723692, 0.5188382677855484, 0.41855246264432233 ], "bias": [ 28.52842842483174, 35.91543462796962, 33.58044347538458, 43.75258977150539, -201.76218051370535, 9.613091026547286, 1.9355822958315412, -42.59234917205369, 14.067041468075924, 31.996321489806007, 28.87337182704798, -7.630324325209817, 62.06848985253515, -66.78737026178909, 67.66789395201243, -43.726559341355525, 16.822070207103444, 99.35338843827768, -3.0239465630219846, 29.475563499266176, -28.56163942287525, -22.39195733077681, 34.80137219531087, 39.06669866962271, 7.941608187810728, 4.255966651076963, -113.05389240007395, 17.76085696873129, 17.813210939903858, 38.09434574602236, -87.62047488351209, -49.77620320496869 ], "mae": [ 47.306274449235374, 53.0785251840867, 47.728218291328446, 48.90153539929648, 201.96390920583687, 50.61972804933836, 51.17429057676625, 53.23601883209341, 29.070105876547036, 51.298140007671336, 44.4600792621417, 30.954095468392183, 62.709219283114145, 71.13303891119922, 68.79213980067965, 60.091985311331506, 45.69534125239417, 99.35680940705765, 59.443014085556676, 43.34441351494429, 39.69054913196931, 36.49367996653169, 47.22681526422074, 47.940967494289225, 33.29166601525936, 31.77175124398769, 114.06042700816259, 30.859046058810883, 48.50403153180984, 45.1385578438425, 104.16428310567096, 59.49421644569499 ], "mse": [ 3578.1937516303888, 4722.554321028153, 3577.3506758491553, 3393.996233963825, 59276.82366519144, 3973.506343868112, 4322.534390596304, 4326.9826533392625, 1302.2597346143746, 4069.2328315720583, 3282.9246278705928, 1627.4839044622115, 5775.437911548447, 10021.225719767974, 7207.014714534421, 6485.6836067912, 3231.24329821676, 13721.589020665897, 6471.362266338213, 2989.499054951354, 2838.888576281737, 2216.8482377922396, 3636.4257990443148, 3485.8733816752165, 1806.6895456249806, 1623.5321519493068, 17012.310319438056, 1523.6993637808198, 3465.450676654379, 2943.356497485711, 18151.013440652147, 6009.794459673164 ], "var": [ 7792.897529477906, 13787.350685896892, 8891.937075507718, 6395.873947066607, 14667.075496266083, 6745.092427793022, 7181.596136687265, 7559.69784279793, 7838.515302130311, 11400.211419335557, 9133.819394410637, 8292.314549413582, 7890.080454112795, 10767.427860383124, 10636.352263635647, 7546.215689535417, 11019.327841091057, 9944.14155408605, 9633.210772884899, 11333.69894078401, 9387.323193313694, 8729.271034665226, 20731.134703972704, 6892.8149051779565, 8262.789258531555, 6402.036750426869, 15681.737940511664, 7021.173525302011, 7088.543828910914, 9786.129070061806, 15717.598962343554, 5960.541857383288 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 39.99219697429811, "crpss": 0.10628771399134451, "rps": 0.43547792266647656, "rpss": 0.036698526986082, "mean_bias_mm": -0.11072274077089261, "mean_mae_mm": 58.09352728997692, "mean_rmse_mm": 82.55126838381487, "spread_error_ratio": 1.1925173329244951, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.3253431860992235, "pit_histogram": [ 0.091, 0.08783, 0.0945, 0.10201, 0.10309, 0.10101, 0.10092, 0.10573, 0.11925, 0.09465 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.06402981630788747 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 34.9143227217525, 42.424005891240014, 25.585329833538573, 28.754382413641505, 224.53323186302725, 36.60585493524811, 25.31143808494517, 50.54651333109958, 24.904116691160063, 32.88278169798638, 28.491252053678124, 36.12712061270695, 41.42834992674719, 86.37039698243896, 33.673958416945005, 52.19058130347546, 34.46717486571704, 65.61108950142368, 66.76813338703346, 28.72687631461479, 51.84259942792145, 38.39383524541748, 39.96350490189585, 34.65861996857405, 31.744311650356877, 20.820277708219542, 100.23855398164028, 25.026324503530923, 34.67768800887342, 29.207986063574154, 116.56821460160393, 29.310555332022705 ], "crps_clim": [ 43.05674508597644, 47.02174056492448, 28.84873411344585, 52.31210697339705, 337.83045973804184, 54.55256595155876, 38.94875701090369, 39.57782058741483, 27.74569141249191, 34.126369417367485, 27.450347808492733, 34.017006869578225, 52.72584373838084, 95.1322901374424, 31.016202641442625, 46.77726687336443, 28.68599867750331, 67.63450525795584, 70.45970873133518, 29.076021275933627, 49.86214141911897, 34.70899724260007, 55.60856424824002, 45.9400310845385, 29.402894877394107, 33.32071549456562, 163.04105609314394, 29.873009959301736, 48.200340322444724, 32.07710679517107, 177.18917611869378, 26.893576505878865 ], "rps": [ 0.3936338664645893, 0.3491992343629333, 0.3515202068094893, 0.27939908463296326, 0.1679411094159784, 0.32884209475980886, 0.2997321456685794, 0.5994756191248743, 0.34869566836844307, 0.3416594485209036, 0.37617521920381825, 0.43449142919677886, 0.3947263094476116, 0.44784489079711753, 0.4188144910564554, 0.5195908179117675, 0.40664936684086966, 0.5115484568144739, 0.4478054705759066, 0.32233122504584605, 0.4989188901626828, 0.5145715407264576, 0.22516105561358318, 0.38770396303132637, 0.42014296195412165, 0.2812918871416694, 0.21922024283033048, 0.342290512866148, 0.3456244682217011, 0.3868713264040655, 0.22033619831848486, 0.39696617986118715 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4903301532167852, 0.44204091246608007, 0.3821454984532625, 0.5431907333012903, 0.5629552549427677, 0.538931603827915, 0.47718465303177104, 0.4269517164665013, 0.3648511299187768, 0.3588689197908303, 0.356723031227705, 0.4013877968759663, 0.5457092532164318, 0.5530781005304259, 0.3883080341726342, 0.41667877142632664, 0.33834680801777955, 0.5610985777523381, 0.4668682110446354, 0.34014334800184304, 0.464044269131601, 0.43822125796975975, 0.5000883325693602, 0.5339534977340119, 0.3734059025504393, 0.40314128440280195, 0.5592508943098848, 0.414709381099934, 0.516605453040115, 0.4212120203974677, 0.5555451413875876, 0.33021111911934736 ], "bias": [ 70.6827210839086, 22.002737118329296, 42.55269343851441, 59.742595228765765, -290.7661266065624, 64.71225893746731, 44.9127352129467, -53.41274809923249, 12.043840621682325, -3.4327358321450308, 9.544977695058236, -20.582231547496054, 86.38156830058969, -105.27887427952037, 63.72698556002615, -53.64467071349997, 37.359927872002444, 119.67049382286639, -69.92525854832715, 24.442920859591613, -50.62104625147514, -21.181168578965305, 38.821172736355955, 70.65472656359717, -14.191761849721082, 30.641171225928595, -123.24715098957503, 24.188851188561383, 70.68259581967588, 56.031214816150346, -141.22946590508474, -11.2946909053362 ], "mae": [ 72.34904530781286, 55.47192064577377, 46.68949831240682, 61.004910406509005, 290.7661266065624, 72.15998886098387, 48.80117252104078, 60.32772315608116, 33.73673487528832, 38.02642445052247, 39.091851464151, 40.564565457469456, 86.38156830058969, 105.80734464723803, 65.74081013059835, 58.89832661185799, 59.323748327281756, 119.67049382286639, 82.22077661991669, 40.10160545527221, 57.132390756618726, 44.67189566295037, 56.73454166651775, 71.74774306023573, 31.71015362108332, 35.046770361722665, 125.77661124327405, 40.2386658323439, 71.38844389868531, 57.25545926100917, 146.7017818330622, 33.912596753967435 ], "mse": [ 6516.2612880938605, 5245.6449823637095, 2882.6022296207216, 4442.0026125413315, 96254.55600876376, 6214.730095785743, 3297.0695835931388, 5349.628604690143, 1754.7764127567696, 2534.567925983678, 2144.2673475315696, 2625.290827778722, 8548.82771415751, 16963.71337354679, 6573.108763614552, 7563.376740985818, 4671.241685993777, 17493.474296408156, 11266.596981958988, 2415.809782696417, 5052.663256976054, 2919.4030735491124, 4989.44990899578, 6050.588032613819, 1563.3393383193336, 1677.2791971169759, 19054.96928778831, 2219.931084739511, 5896.76984686496, 4499.5000217538445, 28879.12365802984, 1894.200950795892 ], "var": [ 12538.76852369574, 24933.673233417343, 13021.564150809329, 8622.322223368667, 24759.743981839707, 9516.71242922384, 9597.740081299917, 10513.866459490595, 11012.194414386573, 16967.46036642037, 12717.695543852602, 13752.900908260006, 11631.145805988182, 17765.504805512108, 15633.465042555696, 11837.035196158904, 18546.016780310158, 13220.073228876352, 15460.363880165596, 18940.53166529169, 14374.806026473609, 13066.400616629697, 36942.945038391306, 11082.743404887015, 12941.451520415529, 9612.578708645207, 30441.26204742341, 11725.266277515057, 10631.962382498581, 13085.27507569993, 28243.160613131724, 9625.122307795276 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 48.52404319443907, "crpss": 0.1883549280336565, "rps": 0.3743492306922177, "rpss": 0.17191860579434026, "mean_bias_mm": -0.312866937653836, "mean_mae_mm": 70.29536531036543, "mean_rmse_mm": 96.73655670757445, "spread_error_ratio": 1.2827820720901046, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.623633829189407, "pit_histogram": [ 0.06962, 0.08556, 0.09502, 0.10855, 0.10938, 0.11408, 0.11027, 0.11591, 0.13132, 0.0603 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.17899578619307566 } }, "distribution_full": { "ethiopia": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 0.999734236080194, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.0012135161012386078 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0664622371974328, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.07432040997373734 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9136490822134651, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.09284835489681319 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9766727385206921, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.03592790746832539 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0587958580400216, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.07279589862800064 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": 0.0 } }, "ondj_domain": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9982426552496717, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.002001671202576592 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0617864967381394, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.0692162273985548 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9077146203548515, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.10273436323069826 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9681027123369874, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.04334968346308049 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0603556942379424, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.0841859738286139 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": 0.0 } } } }, "loci": { "training": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 32.256465371359134, 32.54223164204868, 28.89871169998357, 28.22967127588809, 180.79725371932622, 35.88140752433749, 34.544549853956376, 42.762390012796004, 18.912829779707007, 27.94612286314022, 25.211885560393956, 23.387259494115806, 37.50670777341209, 57.664350809209715, 40.20935185459577, 46.681704868083806, 29.177075858195796, 63.978960401213165, 40.68621489198109, 26.691616313464845, 34.01967757146581, 30.909916722639135, 29.46526756793005, 30.317312689958303 ], "crps_clim": [ 29.83323453860368, 38.88077881844172, 26.1795875687868, 36.08822373966346, 249.9992360568139, 38.426875463916396, 39.04498825040786, 38.65484959473932, 21.062619481737414, 26.341700917326186, 23.043072155361166, 23.761208131674348, 35.758076339617475, 65.51443181552213, 28.07427178189838, 41.19686340465451, 28.3419383709928, 45.95970122915301, 42.821914300357065, 27.103313627542445, 35.0043497136804, 30.34929072242817, 36.1179019010588, 32.50133398998652 ], "rps": [ 0.48427702314177196, 0.3681831082691404, 0.4811573488402655, 0.4118355105837251, 0.13981912201860183, 0.4560846026575457, 0.4273822237078304, 0.5332475318202916, 0.3587565962638055, 0.42332005744569967, 0.4285194518406025, 0.3776543487019563, 0.5123211310846508, 0.3916153007482115, 0.6143872370576641, 0.5391054903671507, 0.3975883648452547, 0.7473862983059979, 0.4197318419916314, 0.40088875237738847, 0.4108417958244928, 0.47278855475854337, 0.3547764122832175, 0.45998533363223326 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.43952109738446665, 0.4701037173237654, 0.4169699152477682, 0.47870260421034994, 0.5456974480225605, 0.4718891921569669, 0.47528498795368085, 0.4682080375922366, 0.3831343617912619, 0.4088195337833923, 0.40159350714274034, 0.3947124470194672, 0.4905254609590217, 0.4972930221700924, 0.4454260522581055, 0.4580123165551393, 0.4122169895751251, 0.5190225120513517, 0.4587331615402525, 0.4177409087656852, 0.44718476038056587, 0.4632550515537808, 0.44214926963850176, 0.47013731210450704 ], "bias": [ 22.99916814884854, 28.882183522547546, 26.946305164580902, 38.16923333210719, -215.26912661851708, 3.775156983017392, -4.494284340011636, -49.2173750473032, 7.730456097142419, 24.708971929238803, 21.95188403126232, -13.643803470366024, 56.40575892566085, -74.62589461843876, 60.849946998811966, -50.073048026052994, 10.350702402824997, 92.80410243722379, -9.802569615403401, 22.51637197887162, -35.571360170108804, -29.059626145795047, 26.104597738893876, 33.955421245843844 ], "mae": [ 47.33464745890829, 51.3886164383163, 43.398460254958565, 45.33123530102452, 215.3606799285094, 52.5711189157004, 51.99686353201664, 56.89811256030696, 28.669440340597156, 45.712116601133964, 39.28474185078629, 31.133865966880652, 57.56795699134986, 77.67301200906786, 62.84671846674494, 60.74638157417556, 43.31049747317843, 93.05896119843507, 56.95664247044868, 40.729036423346145, 43.59552333960678, 42.13879684033761, 44.466150578077816, 45.94519326477755 ], "mse": [ 3512.486760796111, 4505.317968673317, 3042.9314035474695, 2941.1337796211615, 65341.920599823905, 4207.407717987797, 4598.6981093264985, 4853.831736113507, 1286.3656330247325, 3326.124842585767, 2537.3945438264395, 1652.288440476844, 4993.176706623649, 11322.560858252882, 6213.853482100002, 6679.279368269579, 2991.3726573921876, 12525.777418915528, 6251.1604266135855, 2820.687741083278, 3320.8655963641218, 2819.38869242062, 3306.646220295561, 3154.390445112955 ], "var": [ 3911.8319731129313, 6506.237876806794, 3854.268636007443, 3737.4770006627678, 5373.1816963788715, 3044.782384353395, 4488.818740570541, 3718.7820085742314, 2727.178156975216, 5431.113717394198, 5151.9912465301295, 4386.691157689762, 3028.50067913575, 4073.4392902491636, 3627.448996409547, 2310.504672863492, 5013.917564823112, 4485.245067501364, 4323.3912242256765, 3704.9751781021323, 4683.8475604762425, 4120.761258977332, 6605.695112336309, 2669.402752228611 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 40.77828900496676, "crpss": 0.059016633507850136, "rps": 0.44215222660698633, "rpss": 0.024335427425492107, "mean_bias_mm": -0.15028446313003485, "mean_mae_mm": 57.421448740778565, "mean_rmse_mm": 83.71704852986625, "spread_error_ratio": 0.774813258788954, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.30453754421842405, "pit_histogram": [ 0.15255, 0.10111, 0.0995, 0.09373, 0.08632, 0.08361, 0.08078, 0.08734, 0.08414, 0.13091 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.16914796186627204 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 45.66208798375748, 37.91969995521199, 28.962781887680325, 34.264703078804004, 262.0575703166143, 44.683582471249466, 27.020536264489245, 47.58678024278372, 22.845600247018087, 25.009853257280877, 25.188068724280534, 30.721607874394774, 55.92788540854354, 84.13576956487155, 39.19824819976377, 46.636100686433714, 33.20251393047996, 85.48993965486689, 67.25993845833443, 25.69770132296815, 48.24772988792473, 33.01424422388075, 35.52458684807342, 46.20946868220788 ], "crps_clim": [ 42.28827155959033, 47.03475528721915, 28.118112914314686, 51.435856466268575, 352.79501684228853, 53.54974195536778, 38.362106175221676, 39.349051348043986, 27.402303306971245, 33.04226475208313, 26.16461609134499, 33.51963055426904, 51.74936172381692, 99.15164309867102, 30.1279091186148, 46.27450144046246, 27.396128860915656, 66.68806658106446, 71.89082190601232, 28.449906713101416, 50.156317986314725, 34.37176519545435, 56.19481769512508, 45.209077740680264 ], "rps": [ 0.5456932927615108, 0.29289470161635683, 0.42276277494789144, 0.38006772877753303, 0.07565340907859171, 0.42596166495235105, 0.3273612246639215, 0.5232696941552963, 0.3284656350349181, 0.267339874981036, 0.3484037825849967, 0.35617168319758774, 0.5992462589256229, 0.33114933941165114, 0.4892596515432792, 0.4358768524222982, 0.40654802356267616, 0.7517692871143795, 0.39845298213076896, 0.29224666837984153, 0.4160832507138204, 0.43380806774018926, 0.1653075599050074, 0.5728824022711169 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4819055012071629, 0.444711644142145, 0.3912256783048537, 0.5314847003061296, 0.5463137996219283, 0.5246370496095673, 0.46799085581035055, 0.43018330198082794, 0.37903088404294777, 0.37602959074729786, 0.3657108710730794, 0.4071905831264576, 0.5346883545994874, 0.5378418884618463, 0.397580420764294, 0.42189702270560003, 0.35631035559982877, 0.5447213136522713, 0.4681166143725515, 0.3573140603557788, 0.4646548705590716, 0.44355045410047106, 0.4892057906870231, 0.5235515159121176 ], "bias": [ 67.38988070426264, 16.351544006315, 39.0625721161362, 57.09977569116199, -303.6830323837765, 62.000144968663804, 42.1950301164898, -57.21360842330985, 8.569157541276805, -8.185626995061503, 5.667725761045983, -25.048432767435965, 83.5141427007163, -111.60371331146517, 60.079977478422464, -57.70613935388938, 32.70479063450135, 117.16008090007796, -75.0451783136705, 19.844475500896625, -55.32663756767275, -25.31198253144567, 31.919135342171757, 67.54793683700257 ], "mae": [ 69.28805969102834, 56.78392185429893, 43.950202264285394, 58.391348397103336, 303.6830323837765, 69.2158156047011, 46.64126232876721, 63.25384479614883, 33.854719745811465, 36.093790717992015, 37.435405000219234, 41.11159928518527, 83.5141427007163, 111.8875177329327, 62.81457178705047, 61.74547628824898, 56.51163228030048, 117.16008090007796, 85.76415225142847, 37.992952299643456, 60.66574115881787, 47.99613217834575, 53.037737553559445, 68.83073341185943 ], "mse": [ 6056.896840418095, 5436.846322959742, 2635.8702019788698, 4098.452432916364, 104621.55706583108, 5776.386445983054, 3087.8911745738865, 5783.795753135866, 1774.3079452391796, 2478.2094886532714, 2013.8535988484396, 2728.5750939440995, 8035.232036803427, 18450.01894108164, 6256.376459115196, 7862.906963258072, 4364.576476551752, 17084.53906108301, 12017.130558976369, 2213.466885003499, 5598.239122181351, 3229.962514088932, 4490.753695177787, 5546.1756341168475 ], "var": [ 3912.068616212871, 9627.024248280988, 4835.783063972017, 4433.984546490141, 6663.042644883223, 4065.946964539711, 5109.656787462356, 4219.93567696631, 3487.9686204042096, 4784.102295095681, 5183.491786709567, 5610.764187559442, 3584.293045983409, 5090.86589738805, 4777.754909250503, 3166.971144985995, 5499.35591076139, 4124.278477237402, 4998.839303305812, 5093.814360933524, 5691.322651855398, 4501.985738036403, 11555.092733720252, 3121.169928039243 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 51.35279163216307, "crpss": 0.10737501196895227, "rps": 0.3994448254530268, "rpss": 0.1193449895392632, "mean_bias_mm": -0.3340825561910871, "mean_mae_mm": 71.15099469217913, "mean_rmse_mm": 100.34150452162518, "spread_error_ratio": 0.7138590790811122, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.49836742609078805, "pit_histogram": [ 0.19965, 0.10239, 0.09762, 0.09364, 0.08059, 0.06935, 0.06659, 0.06333, 0.0821, 0.14474 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.2935591594366382 } }, "operational": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 24.244563597548115, 23.550122090124972, 88.40047740205073, 19.487188401670405, 33.067832456878214, 26.246177704908842, 82.39468557156397, 48.523456580937086 ], "crps_clim": [ 24.186278935163696, 25.3510236438784, 115.19291638908858, 23.883905041341485, 31.83506561734916, 24.11958582957673, 108.55164002965007, 36.322116319494704 ], "rps": [ 0.4001602395946516, 0.4280786003529618, 0.381252052467169, 0.3364849738388316, 0.514467061633273, 0.42556154767015575, 0.32261495802067197, 0.6430181994303433 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.41765960837363175, 0.4211483967453936, 0.5533032169639418, 0.44730768376472113, 0.4625683819363159, 0.41678104776399905, 0.5158924087479178, 0.42890010225976694 ], "bias": [ 1.9661392238143753, -1.0998425491852613, -116.21881019018605, 12.096281011799794, 11.847569860362738, 29.638087765292813, -91.67440889007814, -53.44088539157694 ], "mae": [ 33.48714943087653, 32.591106063719856, 117.31594253837352, 27.912624404772668, 47.97123937949675, 41.60515450879582, 107.07521926484685, 62.323133107876956 ], "mse": [ 1786.2274365327055, 1771.6899914044754, 18032.130363709617, 1346.7502169665884, 3342.222064072797, 2672.3771217773933, 19064.724436473938, 6634.237120801558 ], "var": [ 3944.5137244662496, 3522.701067494829, 6661.889075675809, 3707.5624712725844, 2740.177747098386, 4940.454641899381, 5581.774795117713, 3177.765921048632 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 43.23931297571029, "crpss": 0.11177009300462082, "rps": 0.4314547041260073, "rpss": 0.057846238243011716, "mean_bias_mm": -25.860733644969585, "mean_mae_mm": 58.78519608734487, "mean_rmse_mm": 82.65164755748904, "spread_error_ratio": 0.7919611479803443, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.41208181631739277, "pit_histogram": [ 0.06586, 0.07359, 0.07779, 0.08565, 0.09349, 0.08755, 0.0871, 0.09444, 0.11169, 0.22284 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.2690560939794148 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 26.104810120434973, 21.282368260725104, 95.23557429333417, 24.288561488637004, 41.85359361051788, 32.74034687435255, 115.81844110956061, 26.125429814163596 ], "crps_clim": [ 27.513828107781922, 30.99293899368493, 161.45686691829505, 27.920571148564072, 44.378057761090616, 29.766973014786096, 175.6320250314755, 25.22282617443876 ], "rps": [ 0.35289849966592957, 0.29774317732799066, 0.09626433890937006, 0.3765543359669743, 0.4878565899418289, 0.4828811881533962, 0.09092759759933287, 0.3782414379279114 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.37168677457254995, 0.40830736189644173, 0.5514955486398806, 0.4122454653654102, 0.5073582603125171, 0.4229682694777741, 0.5480141318493015, 0.3433109764761434 ], "bias": [ -17.559069515397546, 26.59219512015043, -124.45730975287283, 20.03754803031854, 65.42955619576583, 50.56325190908215, -141.44294255576972, -14.077382254801394 ], "mae": [ 33.03125308306215, 32.39379122189683, 127.23083159331986, 36.32677929194035, 66.25943493787919, 52.59414439397313, 147.25370813307467, 34.70730235735527 ], "mse": [ 1652.0985796580208, 1481.8501166064582, 19553.372482634284, 1856.3508421102042, 5113.17517764588, 3961.567788603584, 29014.309890704113, 1985.6825290340025 ], "var": [ 5000.166123763692, 4252.926077814265, 10201.917254189577, 4346.408672334847, 3555.289179917388, 4905.719660499476, 7292.467839103784, 3799.4707047643296 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 47.93114069646573, "crpss": 0.2666651462628278, "rps": 0.3204208956865917, "rpss": 0.28104093118422846, "mean_bias_mm": -16.86426910294057, "mean_mae_mm": 66.22465562656268, "mean_rmse_mm": 89.87380556021076, "spread_error_ratio": 0.8191025770394166, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.8755372511262273, "pit_histogram": [ 0.12011, 0.11203, 0.09642, 0.08394, 0.08253, 0.08237, 0.08293, 0.0889, 0.07851, 0.17227 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.2088040075658442 } }, "full": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 32.30323292089795, 33.523477314929885, 31.673885505419126, 30.584020218751494, 167.37196167525175, 34.24673636237403, 33.304893861813554, 39.481601692798385, 19.05764458818151, 30.66375166301822, 28.330783219432462, 23.009150231737078, 40.87495646044269, 52.53764081945813, 44.15804808593363, 45.69413446565382, 30.55045261823536, 68.03473299110186, 41.47798378795253, 28.115576225762794, 31.292230552417667, 27.09503618899691, 30.675416515086887, 31.806350721829062, 24.031905087614255, 22.80142859446682, 85.0346973382344, 20.699901305511116, 33.255248083221176, 27.763992160659235, 79.57836551850367, 45.7490015252136 ], "crps_clim": [ 30.220473451764587, 39.917418564936064, 27.757568172072368, 37.802333372958124, 238.75051318915055, 37.61181929878509, 37.616082531632294, 37.23600638646016, 21.306686770765648, 28.4780000830409, 25.20476923730856, 24.600584384519205, 37.81772054414582, 61.83148106658277, 29.811614275645827, 41.56571447524313, 29.657529779748423, 47.67275462965923, 43.64083140619902, 27.6391470098042, 34.1009877354789, 28.817911129816427, 35.16768869621822, 33.87686011313925, 25.87047943593951, 26.437105491714817, 114.62794696826606, 26.4205712229385, 33.14461289262585, 24.563582570388807, 107.27766982133843, 35.50441102323164 ], "rps": [ 0.48418420186815575, 0.3750266577012088, 0.5105286138524069, 0.43707069662458087, 0.11701694076683028, 0.4384576803397658, 0.4320135490814819, 0.5035253639114897, 0.35368030129117073, 0.4508784949103559, 0.4627815829737654, 0.3746977473838838, 0.5523041262725091, 0.35059639785018104, 0.6598604502534503, 0.5340272572279935, 0.40716380164056354, 0.790773099825931, 0.4202556812771562, 0.43361874203842327, 0.37575030218507144, 0.42066690236143583, 0.34905929150589887, 0.4770082603738106, 0.382443746869178, 0.3920804605536093, 0.3613055146822906, 0.3437025919247739, 0.4970379780842411, 0.4360722097573435, 0.307319814295948, 0.600145955480874 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.42752784364987473, 0.47525412925412475, 0.4178646042147745, 0.4860452399955733, 0.5615292811104182, 0.4629144820543785, 0.4720919884684642, 0.46355275516950334, 0.3602950493837294, 0.41093548411809694, 0.39925120731108465, 0.3862724441100123, 0.4981591164438388, 0.48945929833950264, 0.4479384312130977, 0.4604687964566817, 0.402555507760245, 0.5325649512878922, 0.46103987989217676, 0.4197441009203777, 0.4304978343784619, 0.45092626124868035, 0.4260850230367853, 0.4774252618219362, 0.4145131464744774, 0.4091714328578628, 0.5607984489124369, 0.46414258203020875, 0.45688333757744265, 0.4028824114723692, 0.5188382677855484, 0.41855246264432233 ], "bias": [ 28.622021670023578, 35.82341244166152, 33.58537644620536, 43.86589430860429, -202.32297566541274, 9.752934395034174, 2.0467642877805474, -42.489103952531245, 14.128734035807152, 31.851503300752714, 28.84830985933971, -7.524559624017452, 62.13437270787693, -66.84305623530234, 67.59076681262596, -43.587134806960854, 16.768294693783364, 99.27759612471746, -2.992336070338878, 29.43203862304369, -28.56813566884476, -22.35963971035046, 34.39154799141399, 39.220405687340154, 8.042383809810662, 4.406778930442655, -113.21654959948826, 17.95503343962366, 17.949810758948633, 38.0110451947872, -87.85778166031008, -49.53322850538379 ], "mae": [ 47.320156025399704, 53.07251013680523, 47.725335507497775, 49.00039829078312, 202.50883812008658, 50.66117401992906, 51.208161463234205, 53.15456538702418, 29.083582049749477, 51.1733287162335, 44.401654090285334, 30.924586019939007, 62.769811151083594, 71.17569044376374, 68.71849518215025, 59.993709604664595, 45.65109118372239, 99.28125713227978, 59.46333180438707, 43.33504222899918, 39.675572791406935, 36.465176795469276, 46.938876411382715, 48.01157803916152, 33.2999334295966, 31.801192113653194, 114.21513387732985, 30.99167846499726, 48.51665813151532, 45.07908628449214, 104.31333458944742, 59.32553361443543 ], "mse": [ 3581.8770504796794, 4718.8877471455635, 3575.663290333084, 3406.244992226011, 59505.45847089092, 3981.729269431186, 4326.999936964784, 4315.707760832635, 1303.495736394584, 4055.594896408477, 3274.602244678895, 1624.6907207709019, 5784.278763673346, 10029.249284007601, 7194.2481259353835, 6471.475028889352, 3225.7184562580087, 13704.806654030694, 6473.516315162605, 2987.024416539108, 2837.3479486240217, 2213.9514066670727, 3601.588564512491, 3494.4506410664444, 1806.2792375210875, 1625.4772648549758, 17053.126936125092, 1530.8583268901677, 3469.8982878552383, 2939.399496458475, 18204.966287228195, 5985.5245268657645 ], "var": [ 4252.187548319684, 6936.894115463696, 4152.1240828833115, 4028.433694505182, 6013.089374713055, 3291.7281116141744, 4853.994228904302, 4004.9186365796054, 2953.296582699028, 5914.6531139765975, 5600.88620596203, 4750.5003897711895, 3253.0298899747063, 4450.940986073501, 3888.743124575114, 2501.7651890956768, 5391.543927099528, 4844.702231635286, 4698.335052805303, 3979.572821565177, 5066.529815753473, 4432.601462650514, 7026.448488815306, 2874.6763694135657, 4264.205383225979, 3817.9601467218245, 6842.829154025167, 4018.3569053842625, 2963.0174786735856, 5435.297744935326, 5823.444184165568, 3368.529199086089 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 41.086819946903155, "crpss": 0.08182599212612274, "rps": 0.4384704504739306, "rpss": 0.030078888435166595, "mean_bias_mm": -0.11217112435367227, "mean_mae_mm": 58.101764784403294, "mean_rmse_mm": 82.59542551000514, "spread_error_ratio": 0.81694287808793, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.32447491034072506, "pit_histogram": [ 0.14573, 0.10347, 0.10031, 0.09609, 0.08977, 0.08468, 0.0823, 0.08434, 0.08434, 0.12895 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.15693756063879313 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 47.75116094313118, 36.77254553763055, 30.571892460482946, 35.947821610474044, 247.71924536326569, 46.76112526935126, 28.19613511545712, 44.98263712974181, 22.744443149689932, 25.741965178893402, 26.104554591618097, 30.08778934925992, 58.19619136273958, 78.66548272705352, 40.48039561873188, 44.55650878811826, 34.62758089355949, 87.52972922167106, 64.12880612566772, 26.84006805543098, 45.07795286835823, 30.69896171614856, 37.10414726557344, 48.65434919502619, 25.622731690537417, 22.627279939429727, 94.03266088467828, 26.36386204544802, 45.575241844394824, 35.39743905774448, 115.7740174338562, 25.531603531122048 ], "crps_clim": [ 43.05674508597644, 47.02174056492448, 28.84873411344585, 52.31210697339705, 337.83045973804184, 54.55256595155876, 38.94875701090369, 39.57782058741483, 27.74569141249191, 34.126369417367485, 27.450347808492733, 34.017006869578225, 52.72584373838084, 95.1322901374424, 31.016202641442625, 46.77726687336443, 28.68599867750331, 67.63450525795584, 70.45970873133518, 29.076021275933627, 49.86214141911897, 34.70899724260007, 55.60856424824002, 45.9400310845385, 29.402894877394107, 33.32071549456562, 163.04105609314394, 29.873009959301736, 48.200340322444724, 32.07710679517107, 177.18917611869378, 26.893576505878865 ], "rps": [ 0.5972824667512312, 0.28267231311756397, 0.4454099647294279, 0.4101734466818892, 0.0593554195734279, 0.47361563252316313, 0.3657022811009573, 0.49119630865470293, 0.3276453618813949, 0.2822437202826123, 0.37909254342004206, 0.35844071070043093, 0.6451545581104234, 0.30106747936067885, 0.5064245937417639, 0.40723925659870974, 0.4100669166797597, 0.798125730482, 0.35767334218769664, 0.3000415646813361, 0.37808059432293156, 0.3939193265976925, 0.16568748004767186, 0.6190250273029415, 0.3469666661101803, 0.2935640825441722, 0.08289303674098186, 0.40448675790772115, 0.5205933207327312, 0.4983664084741486, 0.0775860443694997, 0.3380609305968669 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4903301532167852, 0.44204091246608007, 0.3821454984532625, 0.5431907333012903, 0.5629552549427677, 0.538931603827915, 0.47718465303177104, 0.4269517164665013, 0.3648511299187768, 0.3588689197908303, 0.356723031227705, 0.4013877968759663, 0.5457092532164318, 0.5530781005304259, 0.3883080341726342, 0.41667877142632664, 0.33834680801777955, 0.5610985777523381, 0.4668682110446354, 0.34014334800184304, 0.464044269131601, 0.43822125796975975, 0.5000883325693602, 0.5339534977340119, 0.3734059025504393, 0.40314128440280195, 0.5592508943098848, 0.414709381099934, 0.516605453040115, 0.4212120203974677, 0.5555451413875876, 0.33021111911934736 ], "bias": [ 70.7582759608093, 21.74298742378726, 42.62246137388707, 59.97168448300222, -291.340598043479, 64.90673255161764, 45.128335272079624, -53.22710636774297, 12.195255063932464, -3.483953302569315, 9.624514669936612, -20.54025345495632, 86.49907345281405, -105.37757834966072, 63.71724881884285, -53.50790373108577, 37.22902945327496, 119.72987849790971, -69.91727198472023, 24.3552514715444, -50.59139893882337, -21.097035191784197, 38.27911957468499, 70.77335495072198, -14.11232947950603, 30.830512699339867, -123.70930422409305, 24.310066830921816, 70.83355711489807, 56.08896403864058, -141.67581411578306, -11.082734850496488 ], "mae": [ 72.41837084698575, 55.41022624892054, 46.74644491540536, 61.21932999878245, 291.340598043479, 72.34115422441528, 48.97270923010635, 60.199433550035245, 33.77900691819118, 38.00577319881723, 39.08866865283271, 40.54477444255339, 86.49907345281405, 105.89632038080529, 65.73108696146033, 58.818498188513466, 59.18701008874926, 119.72987849790971, 82.2475174158699, 40.068815302551556, 57.10562318320911, 44.61409958758332, 56.4106065502696, 71.84714018915035, 31.669104752822122, 35.18767848858182, 126.21897089263484, 40.323870616784475, 71.53423929096947, 57.30554544549281, 147.11082569557038, 33.87105803148764 ], "mse": [ 6527.745947448167, 5233.119517803265, 2888.2229179061897, 4468.918813611923, 96598.44459604107, 6240.978464571195, 3314.101375868536, 5328.982296654273, 1758.56846279368, 2534.0129211600993, 2142.9063668710505, 2621.709151637762, 8568.351074620095, 16980.484403431776, 6568.777644471555, 7554.620725523231, 4653.881521903906, 17499.301429456173, 11270.621288405193, 2410.6129815688014, 5049.196581139346, 2913.5011794426805, 4944.126915154885, 6064.658148310342, 1559.7400476947394, 1688.5432768295823, 19167.94544530427, 2227.3621732590645, 5917.768496900507, 4504.6991215845765, 29015.25575439494, 1888.688534824785 ], "var": [ 4067.0599712332973, 9979.35615383151, 5007.820872692107, 4612.932354719791, 7261.603326074912, 4220.361219147143, 5277.176969631085, 4407.021434536672, 3655.0170796912944, 5019.345931217884, 5405.1338789974925, 5880.636301277782, 3693.720076539592, 5420.388441555797, 4980.676250959507, 3310.7915509408517, 5749.5115439969095, 4214.414068685474, 5258.331983481417, 5297.562090208178, 5939.231139428937, 4672.336059952334, 12081.329038284657, 3234.9693285526323, 5218.64719872413, 4493.866448402639, 10272.345402762843, 4541.458363326575, 3791.7909499255884, 5185.173557613836, 7304.236087556148, 3941.040310880674 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 50.33957268638393, "crpss": 0.15798718725735872, "rps": 0.38493291521896095, "rpss": 0.14850690484725282, "mean_bias_mm": -0.3145930728767201, "mean_mae_mm": 70.35760791511731, "mean_rmse_mm": 96.84166322801546, "spread_error_ratio": 0.7601186940792227, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.6231223766971872, "pit_histogram": [ 0.19118, 0.10875, 0.10103, 0.09142, 0.07961, 0.07211, 0.07056, 0.06728, 0.07968, 0.13838 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.27867937736294773 } }, "distribution_full": { "ethiopia": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 0.999718707249137, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.0012143370713674547 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 0.8272627513491154, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.2938195922748611 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 1.036776084966965, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.2750591620426792 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0563074249629207, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.09220449535772801 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9808941892500175, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.12178257145407473 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": 0.0 } }, "ondj_domain": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9982320934790564, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.0020127441587950512 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 0.6450279352500531, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.4307520006226664 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 1.3732582956378545, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.37018535299380145 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 1.111979159196762, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.1243806374408904 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 0.8893346975478694, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.14594684313557355 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": 0.0 } } } }, "eqm": { "training": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 29.442073729566435, 35.32876522423216, 27.859321236273786, 23.91843865788736, 185.7406000879602, 31.321972935734422, 33.373314480541836, 48.45804916506808, 19.29528840637975, 29.731556443975904, 26.343364269263414, 26.834809687422315, 31.21852734479398, 60.224888292931105, 37.49872511759375, 51.741776562909244, 31.61014538635995, 57.17126074008999, 40.881940639389704, 26.68428889528657, 38.01269156227954, 34.90123271874017, 39.33862164475197, 25.4113356827839 ], "crps_clim": [ 29.83323453860368, 38.88077881844172, 26.1795875687868, 36.08822373966346, 249.9992360568139, 38.426875463916396, 39.04498825040786, 38.65484959473932, 21.062619481737414, 26.341700917326186, 23.043072155361166, 23.761208131674348, 35.758076339617475, 65.51443181552213, 28.07427178189838, 41.19686340465451, 28.3419383709928, 45.95970122915301, 42.821914300357065, 27.103313627542445, 35.0043497136804, 30.34929072242817, 36.1179019010588, 32.50133398998652 ], "rps": [ 0.4611549670778754, 0.3683272911799389, 0.45972365802704257, 0.35713840129086777, 0.13000661707367903, 0.40949091718672076, 0.4170841749221042, 0.6138323843814738, 0.3633545512658659, 0.43060042488038724, 0.44147581362519916, 0.42396608928448126, 0.43482803195739467, 0.43403571572575633, 0.579295612628797, 0.6225688139292367, 0.4190554914131498, 0.654445378986779, 0.42961581656091546, 0.39059071601682993, 0.47649725218225547, 0.5413882907260513, 0.3589684387791851, 0.38579152977453574 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.43952109738446665, 0.4701037173237654, 0.4169699152477682, 0.47870260421034994, 0.5456974480225605, 0.4718891921569669, 0.47528498795368085, 0.4682080375922366, 0.3831343617912619, 0.4088195337833923, 0.40159350714274034, 0.3947124470194672, 0.4905254609590217, 0.4972930221700924, 0.4454260522581055, 0.4580123165551393, 0.4122169895751251, 0.5190225120513517, 0.4587331615402525, 0.4177409087656852, 0.44718476038056587, 0.4632550515537808, 0.44214926963850176, 0.47013731210450704 ], "bias": [ 20.239683706041987, 39.93886505339905, 22.757455991039734, 33.44357275672366, -216.42043999209397, -0.9632620207130606, -9.08740314785787, -54.299023095639825, 1.2422666172463386, 26.580854930894716, 19.380539191337242, -15.466191298081565, 50.53451215357269, -74.74443605980315, 58.74183310379877, -56.68793981309776, 16.721210753586615, 90.79030205686713, -11.720276775503374, 22.34144633207902, -36.57013241536882, -32.652697410434044, 50.773110446563955, 28.64295307796686 ], "mae": [ 44.96567971384916, 54.561614712026234, 40.853623943247406, 40.740255586405404, 216.43491662942407, 48.5069373983118, 48.534276912444234, 60.21250086708751, 26.72189338958952, 48.48965127663992, 38.892282622332004, 32.01893184822204, 51.887123074621, 78.29619270057245, 60.801716587602066, 65.807737668538, 47.827579565051145, 91.06656499609555, 57.16188397209173, 40.2774882030615, 44.45089684739882, 45.03306123933707, 62.88330273607812, 41.90533497197266 ], "mse": [ 3073.6520282522165, 5027.908133246414, 2869.1807045531464, 2425.5408426710933, 64594.20341318346, 3637.7522829491986, 4267.712632131556, 5362.411661414475, 1146.5955510448039, 3733.407671359244, 2480.282947175659, 1748.9693655845103, 4107.773587099542, 11869.001093052528, 5893.378895652134, 7430.253200050369, 3681.155412742909, 12243.896256536174, 6363.150746021364, 2793.999002294547, 3461.9391866996048, 3179.7959652123236, 6636.925096880528, 2617.9921123664826 ], "var": [ 5867.341560594147, 13830.469667504476, 5535.0451192609735, 4342.290430391594, 4077.1234641637257, 3806.0691742393974, 6184.30707227616, 5647.693424219316, 3584.27798985992, 9253.582668350078, 7755.2188971239075, 6840.234336935263, 3646.0669278006994, 6247.283482120215, 6279.410812623845, 2934.4586561227097, 10410.163081628933, 6322.063951917491, 7178.413449072763, 5864.598111971162, 8570.565129194485, 6596.002789061174, 16463.749180416118, 3085.421663347396 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 41.34762453800898, "crpss": 0.045878876146808745, "rps": 0.4418015157865218, "rpss": 0.025109315019300138, "mean_bias_mm": -1.1034664940614836, "mean_mae_mm": 57.847143644249975, "mean_rmse_mm": 84.32251522877661, "spread_error_ratio": 0.9692753895516846, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.24763825841444492, "pit_histogram": [ 0.11964, 0.0922, 0.09481, 0.09506, 0.09185, 0.0949, 0.09128, 0.0937, 0.09499, 0.13159 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.10245877568921485 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 36.2231363191591, 44.74148972947272, 25.84451082382057, 25.824076262964798, 253.18573995389025, 32.53131989823725, 24.234802725130354, 57.79553631596055, 24.60773597940863, 29.562716148238387, 28.349593951038223, 37.48991042550994, 42.647487210511265, 85.52137567783872, 36.81011511791293, 54.35645002712813, 36.26054994421907, 71.33054145105295, 70.00484693758872, 27.06916288671212, 54.29260438436657, 40.10323859305316, 58.71329255814153, 34.05864256019347 ], "crps_clim": [ 42.28827155959033, 47.03475528721915, 28.118112914314686, 51.435856466268575, 352.79501684228853, 53.54974195536778, 38.362106175221676, 39.349051348043986, 27.402303306971245, 33.04226475208313, 26.16461609134499, 33.51963055426904, 51.74936172381692, 99.15164309867102, 30.1279091186148, 46.27450144046246, 27.396128860915656, 66.68806658106446, 71.89082190601232, 28.449906713101416, 50.156317986314725, 34.37176519545435, 56.19481769512508, 45.209077740680264 ], "rps": [ 0.4341680820497031, 0.31973546690604393, 0.37043049776039466, 0.2688504211257812, 0.05538617851778563, 0.2910389480853308, 0.27545837027550246, 0.6744386364859822, 0.3592854334882967, 0.3075957375029075, 0.37167286450417714, 0.43793240506251757, 0.44334560424559527, 0.37987780676423405, 0.4600333566414156, 0.5378667757902118, 0.4032486349139992, 0.566790360457332, 0.46018910526704954, 0.3010777350679923, 0.49683152940703057, 0.549783334966844, 0.1755537080050859, 0.405893304031411 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4819055012071629, 0.444711644142145, 0.3912256783048537, 0.5314847003061296, 0.5463137996219283, 0.5246370496095673, 0.46799085581035055, 0.43018330198082794, 0.37903088404294777, 0.37602959074729786, 0.3657108710730794, 0.4071905831264576, 0.5346883545994874, 0.5378418884618463, 0.397580420764294, 0.42189702270560003, 0.35631035559982877, 0.5447213136522713, 0.4681166143725515, 0.3573140603557788, 0.4646548705590716, 0.44355045410047106, 0.4892057906870231, 0.5235515159121176 ], "bias": [ 59.99780256965779, 40.766203121165, 31.2130824440641, 46.995573610878616, -292.0012080112255, 51.868123379218424, 29.479762958803153, -70.14352357274292, -3.3519285791342206, -9.66459737826611, 0.8632359097438529, -27.465575831683704, 73.57866799188017, -109.3420455955815, 56.82896461934681, -70.05510588210402, 42.70465334955158, 110.19113236381614, -79.31175107475946, 22.748116934591785, -58.32172812957649, -34.07398359974304, 88.34853133976817, 56.85867998721248 ], "mae": [ 62.48532507352098, 62.644580606205146, 37.92416255799119, 48.537589520260816, 292.0012080112255, 59.9109949073382, 38.98551354136106, 72.12962193832423, 30.580973604070877, 37.63841124028849, 37.745503077448014, 42.50300855125959, 73.58376949410794, 110.67453580660165, 59.877799602968686, 71.14863436579479, 67.72546110299749, 110.19113236381614, 87.68664368089063, 38.85417359043796, 63.21853132378423, 55.01075313373795, 95.60462871199526, 58.40833924560098 ], "mse": [ 4968.210877884994, 6323.107452121477, 2144.9243132925903, 2969.4480672744944, 97821.6834949606, 4413.3795173414655, 2454.3053874991347, 7160.394709548017, 1518.0387403351683, 2662.755595118094, 2093.3822631661824, 2932.3405646266733, 6388.552150135441, 18941.055756560985, 5860.424774986658, 8977.308996841135, 6046.303947970509, 15900.629120041482, 12495.008366436545, 2399.2840972849017, 5976.5112837944125, 4061.335762749071, 12086.51828345455, 4174.3690918632055 ], "var": [ 6797.566507660229, 24235.39655087865, 7736.858958369291, 5898.594911990568, 5654.178953646071, 6007.917258605551, 7846.4019240505595, 6661.868863500305, 5611.158527373919, 9448.87045228717, 10102.21721817233, 11215.779004786531, 5181.324293249093, 9978.32028469875, 9912.001655470154, 5003.596981661877, 13816.326941321498, 6818.468216391818, 10317.942575910967, 10202.815610387543, 11737.634199391578, 8333.083011130937, 31316.06375202921, 4522.380909249738 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 51.31495316173122, "crpss": 0.10803272819318943, "rps": 0.389436845721776, "rpss": 0.14140955749284645, "mean_bias_mm": -1.7203715447966204, "mean_mae_mm": 71.46130396050116, "mean_rmse_mm": 100.16013690903678, "spread_error_ratio": 0.9865934304769367, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.4510537727798657, "pit_histogram": [ 0.09352, 0.08952, 0.1048, 0.11362, 0.10828, 0.09805, 0.09425, 0.07648, 0.09787, 0.12361 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.10062226571784487 } }, "operational": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 26.262562390240042, 23.22030727032535, 83.41184252129686, 19.12837991370101, 29.206171304452532, 24.778031746932957, 72.03960938014438, 51.766028217214036 ], "crps_clim": [ 24.186278935163696, 25.3510236438784, 115.19291638908858, 23.883905041341485, 31.83506561734916, 24.11958582957673, 108.55164002965007, 36.322116319494704 ], "rps": [ 0.419626775671896, 0.4286549592725917, 0.4148555868962071, 0.3190583639828116, 0.46824428313463895, 0.38927929365823577, 0.34241623546997263, 0.7010252912635051 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.41765960837363175, 0.4211483967453936, 0.5533032169639418, 0.44730768376472113, 0.4625683819363159, 0.41678104776399905, 0.5158924087479178, 0.42890010225976694 ], "bias": [ -0.31350428332914043, -4.825529216143617, -99.31425269408827, 8.95348934337648, 6.624701020437095, 29.69245808803902, -73.10436623193293, -58.29004665739761 ], "mae": [ 35.34041553460522, 29.82160183796651, 101.09657725494851, 25.590569770277632, 43.55304132273514, 41.19361153662088, 90.57074578790197, 62.92622718441592 ], "mse": [ 1901.7308731673907, 1534.5187026269743, 14275.417553069361, 1140.4612994582817, 2820.8853350701033, 2717.848773935379, 13899.988533751191, 6803.065535261437 ], "var": [ 6079.723929601354, 4612.279420548052, 14163.273506622758, 4949.849916829873, 3572.960253911883, 7690.132511808312, 13739.581967199345, 3962.510596285425 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 41.2266165930384, "crpss": 0.15311527168021288, "rps": 0.4353950986687324, "rpss": 0.049241725403696535, "mean_bias_mm": -23.82213132887987, "mean_mae_mm": 53.761598778683975, "mean_rmse_mm": 75.07822304631694, "spread_error_ratio": 1.141615928968156, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.41422432990627556, "pit_histogram": [ 0.04138, 0.0486, 0.0646, 0.08736, 0.11018, 0.10752, 0.11105, 0.12694, 0.12106, 0.18131 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.31611680321503877 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 32.15993960769627, 19.866982968667248, 79.68255079988991, 24.619398430122338, 31.156176911834454, 28.727876025340674, 87.17943975659418, 31.833946450593466 ], "crps_clim": [ 27.513828107781922, 30.99293899368493, 161.45686691829505, 27.920571148564072, 44.378057761090616, 29.766973014786096, 175.6320250314755, 25.22282617443876 ], "rps": [ 0.42093959818291304, 0.2808958623113641, 0.11006048905976086, 0.34847642047416083, 0.33893435331315513, 0.39064554329329404, 0.09678873872376498, 0.4533737036181188 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.37168677457254995, 0.40830736189644173, 0.5514955486398806, 0.4122454653654102, 0.5073582603125171, 0.4229682694777741, 0.5480141318493015, 0.3433109764761434 ], "bias": [ -23.086769318681824, 18.269398325493015, -85.07469193390152, 11.474643186329534, 55.128035864229076, 45.50798345304304, -99.96040553774999, -26.93449350341472 ], "mae": [ 36.498386142439934, 26.537502551406092, 89.61422165589086, 30.33164594857292, 56.179425287596665, 48.555877371853626, 109.78570798912708, 37.285358427692294 ], "mse": [ 1942.616045923298, 1044.6808394675563, 11019.133038511949, 1408.7984189043827, 3873.3789508633763, 3626.978554248317, 17105.665248489517, 2306.570314361615 ], "var": [ 9163.581421382629, 7015.38885805063, 25908.590017893694, 7413.383983055024, 5641.739351686751, 8663.010922983682, 22492.34820196471, 5538.7243570915725 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 41.90328886884231, "crpss": 0.35888982053780316, "rps": 0.3050143386220665, "rpss": 0.31561009964321174, "mean_bias_mm": -13.084537433081675, "mean_mae_mm": 54.34851567182244, "mean_rmse_mm": 72.7391069256851, "spread_error_ratio": 1.4729748629457458, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.8804502449233608, "pit_histogram": [ 0.02622, 0.06136, 0.07929, 0.10478, 0.12984, 0.13296, 0.15163, 0.16705, 0.10061, 0.04626 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.37373102230334354 } }, "full": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 28.166982531177517, 37.62622948798731, 29.54972179424152, 25.63224650705677, 154.5707767236739, 28.9449303076769, 31.193423019844467, 45.11089597354052, 18.666061258197264, 31.880215166104726, 28.915781901275523, 25.82963284488387, 33.46299132576512, 54.82911441185177, 40.98405365628099, 50.666088621842306, 31.89173194026435, 60.556258690245215, 42.31860873334618, 27.52538100906286, 36.03724935313036, 31.526599621549202, 40.06697913049152, 25.801366109840412, 26.71913745204502, 21.72099185891819, 78.87329439916662, 19.532982194931154, 28.367664087884055, 25.591113229624284, 67.72866841642207, 49.178137473455514 ], "crps_clim": [ 30.220473451764587, 39.917418564936064, 27.757568172072368, 37.802333372958124, 238.75051318915055, 37.61181929878509, 37.616082531632294, 37.23600638646016, 21.306686770765648, 28.4780000830409, 25.20476923730856, 24.600584384519205, 37.81772054414582, 61.83148106658277, 29.811614275645827, 41.56571447524313, 29.657529779748423, 47.67275462965923, 43.64083140619902, 27.6391470098042, 34.1009877354789, 28.817911129816427, 35.16768869621822, 33.87686011313925, 25.87047943593951, 26.437105491714817, 114.62794696826606, 26.4205712229385, 33.14461289262585, 24.563582570388807, 107.27766982133843, 35.50441102323164 ], "rps": [ 0.43473430399288054, 0.3885754346487633, 0.47972475529371195, 0.3698649324789276, 0.12037120460734445, 0.376760346366496, 0.403988066391024, 0.5839796617461694, 0.35519080135811576, 0.45487868752066546, 0.45962777899842666, 0.4090379678358605, 0.4536590812210389, 0.4075925071173041, 0.6153213109501919, 0.6033319448367579, 0.4080760427041138, 0.687375759062065, 0.43870456940267705, 0.41612362480362114, 0.4497322264978474, 0.5014117920562088, 0.35547180437721443, 0.38784448896825363, 0.4084865226723119, 0.3804649367849987, 0.3898459873250514, 0.3136876147269289, 0.4330835245145366, 0.38891313652198223, 0.3369895748771094, 0.6694862780968673 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.42752784364987473, 0.47525412925412475, 0.4178646042147745, 0.4860452399955733, 0.5615292811104182, 0.4629144820543785, 0.4720919884684642, 0.46355275516950334, 0.3602950493837294, 0.41093548411809694, 0.39925120731108465, 0.3862724441100123, 0.4981591164438388, 0.48945929833950264, 0.4479384312130977, 0.4604687964566817, 0.402555507760245, 0.5325649512878922, 0.46103987989217676, 0.4197441009203777, 0.4304978343784619, 0.45092626124868035, 0.4260850230367853, 0.4774252618219362, 0.4145131464744774, 0.4091714328578628, 0.5607984489124369, 0.46414258203020875, 0.45688333757744265, 0.4028824114723692, 0.5188382677855484, 0.41855246264432233 ], "bias": [ 25.074940762994814, 46.94795813249367, 29.156461929585653, 39.020795296295084, -192.96617860067516, 4.610031938491286, -2.0169450565173763, -47.982571965284926, 7.53533127600421, 32.23383334339507, 25.847912349023467, -9.065492888291788, 55.49996916585251, -66.29126728370977, 65.50442042886233, -50.96661470255724, 21.750753641721072, 96.11363955476882, -5.663239359376141, 29.019907317480385, -30.395789944435737, -26.78215697407956, 55.77144061909608, 33.630758167372385, 5.381422995294879, -0.16805219051605294, -95.54859242953226, 14.027256134173314, 12.105050126529417, 37.220245219556325, -69.90647168878502, -55.036111899334635 ], "mae": [ 44.155581391438645, 56.77598993753748, 44.74419101485642, 44.427424477559605, 193.07026771578498, 45.99986355706697, 47.59844454258871, 56.321152546170495, 26.80720974087702, 52.86017221394168, 43.49304152468155, 31.710637868208487, 56.21828544378314, 71.06180020779078, 66.74415619384742, 65.02769007095779, 49.26351571374427, 96.11792653453975, 60.19575313702419, 42.443119051234156, 41.119426426016126, 39.74098853744001, 62.62144667983531, 43.37604643449729, 35.27589161898838, 28.477458444028734, 97.14698702140404, 28.119308274591628, 43.371748824006204, 44.35351221313248, 87.95795394608895, 60.022798430390985 ], "mse": [ 3042.974988784471, 5272.084943494413, 3381.425443078152, 2858.5202410466295, 52444.3176140359, 3302.9152346186734, 3990.1555280103585, 4798.6142403623735, 1120.1159123231362, 4326.907383326468, 3149.3768808590776, 1710.6237712026664, 4701.520012395743, 10317.721574708694, 6940.915978024489, 7190.144002724759, 3834.6915255064637, 13186.07304284869, 6700.02778447537, 2898.6589010069665, 3052.418693292502, 2577.418222000005, 6557.377151327923, 2829.4858430510535, 1926.7738725910822, 1349.0302344079164, 13199.609652958356, 1253.3266877735332, 2801.8290310022794, 2939.8780933032726, 13037.294841250314, 6159.523942132575 ], "var": [ 5916.158513332475, 13654.803671630892, 5684.334696691235, 4435.445000775475, 7232.791677226483, 4020.555322623252, 6311.869480663481, 5718.552042055262, 3891.467934827876, 9229.0588169282, 7899.287930048655, 7048.065693422152, 3770.8468742800233, 7003.634640151509, 6571.247028837368, 3015.451106017764, 10231.701261837632, 6401.706971929667, 7242.406360517044, 6207.176740499092, 8535.648474621885, 6502.085024020916, 14610.887909950676, 3257.9992337224376, 6469.605047787315, 4806.988967316735, 14055.351059353929, 5150.784988304626, 3702.9008679308786, 8008.354886934016, 13163.15236887971, 4091.6386486340557 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 39.98329091349304, "crpss": 0.10648673921535368, "rps": 0.4338230208986083, "rpss": 0.04035926207207574, "mean_bias_mm": -0.5105423932532798, "mean_mae_mm": 56.45686842918918, "mean_rmse_mm": 79.61857338035287, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0504644717505889, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.3044657434502333, "pit_histogram": [ 0.11752, 0.0886, 0.09124, 0.09436, 0.09869, 0.09591, 0.09812, 0.09931, 0.0979, 0.11835 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.07173470621753644 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 36.15817653199748, 45.90750096757161, 25.20507438238283, 26.180036649219158, 199.63366308971848, 33.01351115312791, 23.6237400448083, 56.21479349159222, 23.170258307423097, 29.739641889509922, 28.122059361188846, 36.783998066165815, 42.822944624875134, 80.81694421709561, 36.81916765570301, 53.506740036539505, 36.45328290331932, 71.42977742644878, 69.00905249674483, 26.936293613002185, 53.688269671922725, 39.295662689855064, 60.3085216270025, 33.99936024154034, 33.032245770287055, 19.736065862929916, 76.21116683009201, 24.697794763680207, 33.11860185836224, 29.491077249130438, 83.64309295336804, 31.773812592241022 ], "crps_clim": [ 43.05674508597644, 47.02174056492448, 28.84873411344585, 52.31210697339705, 337.83045973804184, 54.55256595155876, 38.94875701090369, 39.57782058741483, 27.74569141249191, 34.126369417367485, 27.450347808492733, 34.017006869578225, 52.72584373838084, 95.1322901374424, 31.016202641442625, 46.77726687336443, 28.68599867750331, 67.63450525795584, 70.45970873133518, 29.076021275933627, 49.86214141911897, 34.70899724260007, 55.60856424824002, 45.9400310845385, 29.402894877394107, 33.32071549456562, 163.04105609314394, 29.873009959301736, 48.200340322444724, 32.07710679517107, 177.18917611869378, 26.893576505878865 ], "rps": [ 0.4381371507546384, 0.3251203345898076, 0.3682682612368814, 0.27075887065805815, 0.05871228044412433, 0.2997532478562022, 0.2804163994975675, 0.6612667944002241, 0.3485056253808739, 0.30700465648505515, 0.3754540570518116, 0.434104757609193, 0.45023814989058963, 0.3883197586743447, 0.46051193355999503, 0.53221579105616, 0.388333354522455, 0.5786440216508573, 0.4593216632007274, 0.2922160070383733, 0.5013624464005183, 0.5421661420643723, 0.17317386400105153, 0.4119231149268817, 0.4330122849292974, 0.2650257141577078, 0.10633864951232172, 0.343752189970886, 0.33995037531582534, 0.3816010418167309, 0.09205744671207654, 0.4414153160656439 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4903301532167852, 0.44204091246608007, 0.3821454984532625, 0.5431907333012903, 0.5629552549427677, 0.538931603827915, 0.47718465303177104, 0.4269517164665013, 0.3648511299187768, 0.3588689197908303, 0.356723031227705, 0.4013877968759663, 0.5457092532164318, 0.5530781005304259, 0.3883080341726342, 0.41667877142632664, 0.33834680801777955, 0.5610985777523381, 0.4668682110446354, 0.34014334800184304, 0.464044269131601, 0.43822125796975975, 0.5000883325693602, 0.5339534977340119, 0.3734059025504393, 0.40314128440280195, 0.5592508943098848, 0.414709381099934, 0.516605453040115, 0.4212120203974677, 0.5555451413875876, 0.33021111911934736 ], "bias": [ 62.16420677116972, 45.57541070104064, 33.55023354358981, 49.447880445803165, -255.87276798541936, 53.614397604781026, 31.993537708757565, -66.89372131470324, -0.10544511843465476, -5.758561246689279, 3.899931122392244, -23.10195695107005, 74.49925566820052, -101.57681445550169, 60.26263822894648, -68.08682256935867, 45.68364211679793, 110.69584574791028, -76.01989356334452, 25.680834133027755, -55.22620719059444, -31.468381297589403, 88.88809042920776, 58.86260316951974, -20.103029026687032, 20.63957690887217, -82.31072078196935, 13.91131473936774, 59.39934043700733, 50.244705252478056, -101.36778233258448, -25.695312411928544 ], "mae": [ 64.23507233825114, 62.34448158440186, 39.339977106887666, 50.89842644159725, 255.87276798541936, 61.824006433593375, 40.486390332063195, 68.98462185581985, 29.57511612807539, 39.42533494258395, 38.334320248325184, 42.142556031806656, 74.49925566820052, 103.55800150738501, 62.7468319079986, 69.41466699644906, 69.10628328987485, 110.69584574791028, 85.40606879578714, 39.68591082679994, 61.0224449783862, 52.41179204338755, 95.20990494113745, 60.00816660893125, 35.585825411638396, 27.867793938300647, 86.38943704401531, 32.78750939672339, 60.30268754823177, 52.20495509519902, 110.01774567087278, 36.72697938431185 ], "mse": [ 5212.163692227106, 6096.538270413392, 2273.9396688059314, 3240.877626971911, 76410.80804583947, 4644.223788304733, 2626.897968942743, 6675.453925785212, 1414.173948437165, 2729.391070294211, 2131.5913665349117, 2838.604569701091, 6506.026961378632, 17121.669055561106, 6284.10255639241, 8782.516540518849, 6234.61610458345, 15922.19769688508, 12037.222165464993, 2491.2671695381955, 5594.587095585486, 3746.5345374357007, 12060.274360317031, 4404.812356368334, 1882.0761605827383, 1131.9355157093703, 10383.186754492888, 1605.4145074819317, 4398.2109989428545, 4033.4950841998325, 17102.29774785757, 2226.203907561092 ], "var": [ 7073.337302165837, 23582.345680469185, 7860.683332358527, 5962.07155958555, 11930.378565803123, 6148.776771515377, 7583.515261672552, 6804.339152664944, 6066.023219846109, 9893.762198271626, 10286.986315060476, 11362.23659797521, 5223.397632276568, 11406.213656169602, 10325.471478293037, 4896.658999353384, 13951.715288524641, 6832.675602599649, 10328.55382953053, 10421.518624498613, 11743.40838701327, 8035.145343321886, 27793.806524841486, 4741.224059866501, 9978.084124981548, 7183.751174753884, 25861.245505426923, 7487.35872366843, 5795.462898125664, 9240.023836005352, 21177.949082313342, 5720.456421424666 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 46.89194778183892, "crpss": 0.21565442971177717, "rps": 0.36715880316972666, "rpss": 0.1878242328387687, "mean_bias_mm": -0.7679366099064007, "mean_mae_mm": 66.22222431969894, "mean_rmse_mm": 90.18094851795117, "spread_error_ratio": 1.130669517092415, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.6226268818927947, "pit_histogram": [ 0.0899, 0.08408, 0.09652, 0.10687, 0.10731, 0.1057, 0.11234, 0.10234, 0.10335, 0.09159 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.0758156688452197 } }, "distribution_full": { "ethiopia": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9971493655050839, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.003754237324630465 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9832715511227291, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.021561458525591798 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9711171368028578, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.03735067459747634 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0003183528882664, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.003070460642254867 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0333907759312564, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.04363114589767854 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": 0.0 } }, "ondj_domain": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9961679809697408, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.004437183528932342 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9814295404696509, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.021374178161761185 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9652340682697186, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.044346226503538845 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 1.000090720140357, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.0029742788088108637 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0435199870278387, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.0538009579537225 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": 0.0 } } } }, "gqm": { "training": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 29.28345837383944, 34.50317847610548, 27.533171553873345, 24.31882970863548, 171.09205857739005, 30.609225139593217, 33.31308191597033, 45.96409629785103, 19.286390120897703, 29.236682633149027, 26.434209818886085, 26.04166875255971, 32.47296640551276, 54.55717994220153, 39.73504558631906, 48.86940404129196, 30.370662215079733, 59.31222046180008, 40.330249302920585, 27.38855901143018, 35.63093084456587, 32.88516693516553, 35.73276227806345, 25.996627992470476 ], "crps_clim": [ 29.83323453860368, 38.88077881844172, 26.1795875687868, 36.08822373966346, 249.9992360568139, 38.426875463916396, 39.04498825040786, 38.65484959473932, 21.062619481737414, 26.341700917326186, 23.043072155361166, 23.761208131674348, 35.758076339617475, 65.51443181552213, 28.07427178189838, 41.19686340465451, 28.3419383709928, 45.95970122915301, 42.821914300357065, 27.103313627542445, 35.0043497136804, 30.34929072242817, 36.1179019010588, 32.50133398998652 ], "rps": [ 0.4494331265090841, 0.3779722658908451, 0.4602406200395254, 0.36143975458619243, 0.13827934768297745, 0.39442280802739216, 0.401697041271333, 0.5702364157104004, 0.36754845902062877, 0.4384694165965163, 0.43356063491004937, 0.40711751278647856, 0.46049677951278967, 0.3984836318660108, 0.615986551084876, 0.5600725995663876, 0.39853267134956877, 0.6929496946990024, 0.4269130480528257, 0.4065921038912427, 0.4358579581627769, 0.5003088477927057, 0.3593612965451139, 0.400125293937135 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.43952109738446665, 0.4701037173237654, 0.4169699152477682, 0.47870260421034994, 0.5456974480225605, 0.4718891921569669, 0.47528498795368085, 0.4682080375922366, 0.3831343617912619, 0.4088195337833923, 0.40159350714274034, 0.3947124470194672, 0.4905254609590217, 0.4972930221700924, 0.4454260522581055, 0.4580123165551393, 0.4122169895751251, 0.5190225120513517, 0.4587331615402525, 0.4177409087656852, 0.44718476038056587, 0.4632550515537808, 0.44214926963850176, 0.47013731210450704 ], "bias": [ 19.95612303998748, 37.23213336447768, 24.204844102892835, 33.02422489979233, -209.1730585891489, -0.20441974834587315, -9.364333915083316, -53.76560807817277, 3.552785994743406, 25.285364102092796, 20.02947546730366, -15.035745709603143, 52.84432681664058, -72.62529117149639, 60.57404294731512, -54.687144639200056, 13.944863001788198, 91.5061079057034, -10.940218747436804, 24.34030719203567, -36.94409419058305, -32.04197126383472, 45.4672289142583, 30.06923226337051 ], "mae": [ 45.80094671020989, 53.5338704136907, 41.30881859253762, 40.518222000038506, 209.19506673829665, 48.208214587422226, 48.39621644820891, 59.80559153627648, 27.32493879425712, 45.93971189777108, 39.468697294779766, 32.01107439560345, 54.12115640587193, 75.95912950906634, 62.676772212068634, 64.0621552063809, 46.799272091696025, 91.78256067550971, 57.28264907066039, 41.62693369510706, 44.692140469790886, 44.205082403671256, 57.268594334473974, 43.15396407003972 ], "mse": [ 3222.0200612913577, 4788.220448672331, 2876.8239727156315, 2376.868458732983, 60058.49666334088, 3622.271662230836, 4287.322730433617, 5314.028417386664, 1178.8378801295387, 3350.865960328471, 2571.7759323944556, 1770.3078739885445, 4477.84861156151, 11010.255805398367, 6304.6895151003755, 7173.875289629193, 3468.3372407620504, 12549.37614166702, 6353.651333981609, 2926.586964237096, 3472.786807136319, 3058.764652805534, 5446.02250407264, 2750.4452114123314 ], "var": [ 5271.828909826777, 10231.697928985577, 5126.6791663379245, 4810.3000461484735, 6320.040009863166, 4127.282622567009, 5870.306100933523, 5003.274940055194, 3765.2474164389805, 7125.816177127584, 7005.261993125892, 6398.86957979637, 3813.365486702827, 5622.4624943948975, 5254.518080438106, 3057.57182194392, 7675.936127324557, 5394.3449194219465, 5851.286355186874, 5315.429175413421, 6549.2086743627, 5466.840667331048, 12455.088159950481, 3536.8034517595192 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 40.03740943273217, "crpss": 0.07611287199793626, "rps": 0.43567074497882735, "rpss": 0.038637632914571785, "mean_bias_mm": -0.5312844183542893, "mean_mae_mm": 57.297574148059546, "mean_rmse_mm": 82.76736477909266, "spread_error_ratio": 0.926234525975976, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.2771116255265251, "pit_histogram": [ 0.10735, 0.11243, 0.10085, 0.09949, 0.09879, 0.09499, 0.08909, 0.09161, 0.08769, 0.11771 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.07669183624899767 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 36.963516136904346, 41.9679391001961, 25.793553974353294, 25.90869252466538, 223.46803332230385, 32.39989101841936, 24.870702895788728, 54.82919787895373, 23.60355268129162, 28.226490133677462, 27.748574139905067, 36.21085241819131, 43.77626804185717, 77.67629302809696, 38.21614002576491, 52.11560206140455, 35.84069192146288, 73.29545426635974, 67.59506754042731, 27.460841360880607, 51.75121209615895, 38.09137617087699, 50.57587564356917, 34.57215387050277 ], "crps_clim": [ 42.28827155959033, 47.03475528721915, 28.118112914314686, 51.435856466268575, 352.79501684228853, 53.54974195536778, 38.362106175221676, 39.349051348043986, 27.402303306971245, 33.04226475208313, 26.16461609134499, 33.51963055426904, 51.74936172381692, 99.15164309867102, 30.1279091186148, 46.27450144046246, 27.396128860915656, 66.68806658106446, 71.89082190601232, 28.449906713101416, 50.156317986314725, 34.37176519545435, 56.19481769512508, 45.209077740680264 ], "rps": [ 0.43522492345297864, 0.3075895350302958, 0.36958602521849465, 0.27846433136902793, 0.07026247665691046, 0.2988090494598593, 0.2837038865426439, 0.6383063836528441, 0.3412779847067602, 0.3006921440660871, 0.35742416113850106, 0.4191202154998182, 0.45914843147934703, 0.36128101460336076, 0.4734014041048432, 0.5118028611535808, 0.40205060370775897, 0.5937505491304624, 0.4448119835064561, 0.2995824757424173, 0.46853422994123284, 0.5116288748631636, 0.17279377732391188, 0.4162029821311323 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4819055012071629, 0.444711644142145, 0.3912256783048537, 0.5314847003061296, 0.5463137996219283, 0.5246370496095673, 0.46799085581035055, 0.43018330198082794, 0.37903088404294777, 0.37602959074729786, 0.3657108710730794, 0.4071905831264576, 0.5346883545994874, 0.5378418884618463, 0.397580420764294, 0.42189702270560003, 0.35631035559982877, 0.5447213136522713, 0.4681166143725515, 0.3573140603557788, 0.4646548705590716, 0.44355045410047106, 0.4892057906870231, 0.5235515159121176 ], "bias": [ 61.891803741221565, 35.62075254890371, 32.249893459553334, 45.830103757542965, -276.48611682945057, 51.88631254955207, 29.267592898849617, -68.91620903888658, -1.2499138165959327, -6.681219717812947, 0.5980335254493117, -27.30844654670469, 76.06290668316043, -106.04964879763492, 58.98697030367505, -68.15530609991248, 41.29074235450986, 111.62359766341854, -78.11620485188867, 24.065828609484228, -58.578573822383376, -32.28661373150265, 78.15428749456923, 59.168791357295994 ], "mae": [ 64.19403039607715, 60.2911804864311, 38.53361336161987, 47.56706346542102, 276.48611682945057, 59.91352761994801, 38.91163881478808, 71.01604427482465, 30.677287967576547, 37.05556934456873, 37.869575898572684, 42.613175005326696, 76.06290668316043, 107.11808510502117, 62.07188471211556, 69.27028691737497, 64.97108294724896, 111.62359766341854, 87.01507234980657, 39.724710455785214, 63.541997518288646, 53.08447245631732, 85.35626948292155, 60.533376207457515 ], "mse": [ 5251.359910551058, 5854.216930558783, 2174.887151058141, 2823.2798734760645, 87930.53707934634, 4415.5522102605755, 2494.415194820316, 7016.935318762584, 1521.3551819715572, 2518.2852819391687, 2115.4568117442714, 2977.9747167823016, 6828.483189524301, 17591.500407691357, 6288.714067258039, 8776.448817574556, 5525.023452364152, 16451.77391519565, 12328.219084437287, 2450.7932929681083, 5983.111168326823, 3822.9753467372007, 9755.509488186422, 4437.850493404695 ], "var": [ 6663.560997513957, 18128.065783748763, 7509.752210155465, 6807.506233499536, 10618.190629484609, 6373.096910915619, 7625.408610250047, 6588.102127003057, 5888.491490228793, 8175.268138561594, 9315.555103455135, 9864.849489315951, 5662.978707650108, 8755.044971014795, 8681.064890357848, 4878.882017921431, 11139.56255470279, 6157.710757658962, 8246.598077646324, 8783.291518704422, 9486.061443648994, 7242.264610082041, 25788.604152378946, 4999.372302366448 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 48.87324884383384, "crpss": 0.15047494444406662, "rps": 0.38397709602007873, "rpss": 0.1534466540435605, "mean_bias_mm": -0.7137765127327853, "mean_mae_mm": 70.2292735818134, "mean_rmse_mm": 97.32562577608131, "spread_error_ratio": 0.9688204576988724, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.4967529290531391, "pit_histogram": [ 0.08331, 0.10508, 0.10826, 0.11576, 0.11674, 0.09876, 0.08918, 0.08282, 0.09367, 0.10643 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.10453150289852439 } }, "operational": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 26.38170894391539, 22.8735696849043, 78.0921563333484, 19.138372181446748, 28.646139566294412, 25.28614825635713, 69.33404910717124, 50.486528587459325 ], "crps_clim": [ 24.186278935163696, 25.3510236438784, 115.19291638908858, 23.883905041341485, 31.83506561734916, 24.11958582957673, 108.55164002965007, 36.322116319494704 ], "rps": [ 0.42687895936255016, 0.41024841716283766, 0.3747030401371582, 0.31942441428024254, 0.44758483056070264, 0.40434536329492343, 0.3376504090920326, 0.6656338790033697 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.41765960837363175, 0.4211483967453936, 0.5533032169639418, 0.44730768376472113, 0.4625683819363159, 0.41678104776399905, 0.5158924087479178, 0.42890010225976694 ], "bias": [ 0.49209341426606623, -5.434405236623738, -102.06946327502868, 8.80307047131917, 8.192645368774611, 28.694281950213927, -77.39248076815664, -58.663459461373485 ], "mae": [ 35.03806910238372, 29.656805609085996, 103.62791543792166, 25.422708561681983, 43.951490500024725, 40.34413524118428, 94.05611217811943, 63.67657781369741 ], "mse": [ 1892.9460558313033, 1529.5239322520983, 14924.989665125946, 1146.4544825752405, 2856.3964589796165, 2600.9066371645217, 14800.962204398384, 6928.097524474068 ], "var": [ 5548.402304665736, 4680.742091867447, 11330.158230753716, 4963.668220676852, 3711.6403539703215, 6517.199060715329, 9331.17631129081, 4126.746269198266 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 40.02983408261212, "crpss": 0.17769979776939437, "rps": 0.4233086641117271, "rpss": 0.07563448384442151, "mean_bias_mm": -24.672214692076096, "mean_mae_mm": 54.471726805512404, "mean_rmse_mm": 76.38739830692067, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0371157824152017, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.41503227731605097, "pit_histogram": [ 0.02396, 0.05911, 0.07962, 0.0952, 0.11477, 0.10547, 0.10595, 0.11013, 0.12475, 0.18105 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.28420970265357615 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 31.966376949923912, 20.259915819750194, 71.59368437336023, 23.708557472213077, 31.794519894222898, 29.812277131719032, 83.41103385964311, 30.810082974364743 ], "crps_clim": [ 27.513828107781922, 30.99293899368493, 161.45686691829505, 27.920571148564072, 44.378057761090616, 29.766973014786096, 175.6320250314755, 25.22282617443876 ], "rps": [ 0.41256385162163894, 0.28212407687868685, 0.09910532288418673, 0.3342703237377736, 0.350179834198445, 0.4134663601617629, 0.09053130799817749, 0.43725795725930516 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.37168677457254995, 0.40830736189644173, 0.5514955486398806, 0.4122454653654102, 0.5073582603125171, 0.4229682694777741, 0.5480141318493015, 0.3433109764761434 ], "bias": [ -21.743701420655665, 17.361524139280757, -90.17747253273777, 12.607765151769499, 56.7495985910998, 46.43499619203102, -108.42286866115992, -25.95376756445753 ], "mae": [ 35.787514665421014, 25.885996853083064, 94.15202203535556, 31.053242578593782, 57.69816492597763, 49.099598994205714, 116.28035990822285, 37.499722103202096 ], "mse": [ 1893.206244065876, 1000.5076514988215, 12054.284382719843, 1455.5243043737644, 4031.012112201244, 3681.7549934242593, 18756.234059951537, 2320.318411592504 ], "var": [ 8497.381011860954, 6971.256342647998, 21105.916391451225, 7074.118620949489, 5821.46416602789, 8034.555608353117, 15541.005730383644, 5760.532230819088 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 40.419556059399646, "crpss": 0.38159057347185366, "rps": 0.3024373793424971, "rpss": 0.3213922701225913, "mean_bias_mm": -14.142990763103727, "mean_mae_mm": 55.932077758007715, "mean_rmse_mm": 75.16053000064915, "spread_error_ratio": 1.3205214156733656, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.8772894752454293, "pit_histogram": [ 0.01422, 0.07308, 0.09734, 0.10273, 0.12804, 0.12758, 0.13951, 0.13801, 0.10988, 0.0696 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.2915193519881124 } }, "full": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 28.826533263314545, 36.05471659894149, 29.94866516501583, 26.453296722833585, 155.24801397694347, 28.60896530996445, 31.691304065290037, 42.55986646787316, 19.221095424894106, 31.548012462071156, 29.1039299285986, 25.24798477632516, 35.84479193414866, 50.10530544923596, 43.759345176214694, 47.71997173836122, 31.05863525159047, 63.22421793671891, 41.51816897095074, 28.489652233835994, 32.87580462853448, 28.960435493247385, 36.18857667097015, 27.25993541736038, 26.496169820044692, 21.64898011839581, 75.39313620252803, 19.785503553461226, 28.38614234819309, 26.277266786740345, 67.35911689277788, 47.43453643059488 ], "crps_clim": [ 30.220473451764587, 39.917418564936064, 27.757568172072368, 37.802333372958124, 238.75051318915055, 37.61181929878509, 37.616082531632294, 37.23600638646016, 21.306686770765648, 28.4780000830409, 25.20476923730856, 24.600584384519205, 37.81772054414582, 61.83148106658277, 29.811614275645827, 41.56571447524313, 29.657529779748423, 47.67275462965923, 43.64083140619902, 27.6391470098042, 34.1009877354789, 28.817911129816427, 35.16768869621822, 33.87686011313925, 25.87047943593951, 26.437105491714817, 114.62794696826606, 26.4205712229385, 33.14461289262585, 24.563582570388807, 107.27766982133843, 35.50441102323164 ], "rps": [ 0.44038474833215063, 0.393119619533134, 0.48644334922967786, 0.38538943690871197, 0.11747624298495846, 0.36717287326714704, 0.39521337545295543, 0.5406179769863922, 0.36324871728722136, 0.46802694168717196, 0.45889989418398713, 0.39649880081323174, 0.49623544894507254, 0.3583028115112702, 0.6612975629656501, 0.5528211181561828, 0.39711377727900493, 0.7389083082180847, 0.43645249365547306, 0.4410355689062686, 0.3981678761823481, 0.4480722191412698, 0.3516784691496169, 0.41627440952581535, 0.41703461020551486, 0.37019215664029453, 0.35250035562216503, 0.3180918544873879, 0.42306157380147125, 0.4085081115514385, 0.3238090099104262, 0.6225217564323839 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.42752784364987473, 0.47525412925412475, 0.4178646042147745, 0.4860452399955733, 0.5615292811104182, 0.4629144820543785, 0.4720919884684642, 0.46355275516950334, 0.3602950493837294, 0.41093548411809694, 0.39925120731108465, 0.3862724441100123, 0.4981591164438388, 0.48945929833950264, 0.4479384312130977, 0.4604687964566817, 0.402555507760245, 0.5325649512878922, 0.46103987989217676, 0.4197441009203777, 0.4304978343784619, 0.45092626124868035, 0.4260850230367853, 0.4774252618219362, 0.4145131464744774, 0.4091714328578628, 0.5607984489124369, 0.46414258203020875, 0.45688333757744265, 0.4028824114723692, 0.5188382677855484, 0.41855246264432233 ], "bias": [ 25.75914469350495, 43.39122498866212, 30.768309938791464, 39.05649892628514, -194.9585685404389, 6.0960984467356205, -2.5611339308587393, -47.0010473798152, 10.130540836127857, 31.49577192400516, 26.603433364071407, -8.593098314035041, 58.71083097880477, -65.23510897234885, 66.8376393655466, -47.849211090363845, 19.829105186546098, 97.128349663239, -4.276702125309853, 30.758513867483753, -30.220593869101055, -25.51125073792941, 50.74050389718012, 35.8208159824105, 6.320714423888729, -0.11474814596079094, -100.17249069351685, 14.686993564360291, 14.378932311120302, 36.507983387570086, -75.50158991868636, -54.817409611849484 ], "mae": [ 45.275214750647244, 55.37163418306369, 45.32871720019086, 44.4751058955058, 195.08582736048356, 46.07184763154691, 47.38984018978117, 55.90583116855294, 27.454181310263873, 50.73584823558389, 43.995380426784585, 31.541524531053703, 59.37459896756117, 69.78272678402199, 68.04490550416072, 62.830736163792, 48.62899878390787, 97.13394573409536, 60.12856100094834, 43.91832677369064, 40.8614828423963, 38.67551848351113, 58.065626532677555, 45.22581850312946, 35.057845236027, 28.56018283362145, 101.37169680684417, 28.416860422018132, 44.38931352981111, 43.47970804234278, 92.55382041811647, 60.23100967092771 ], "mse": [ 3234.978446889949, 4998.339028073718, 3377.8248563417033, 2840.7085728591774, 53536.09630598674, 3330.958395320266, 3984.9047766638923, 4742.002644081057, 1169.1675508835071, 3997.4829567477623, 3234.9427035996405, 1714.307014380294, 5266.818714940462, 9789.49338674123, 7215.843292937333, 6852.126619261542, 3672.025835838856, 13488.324313208872, 6641.363553744035, 3058.946870359379, 2998.808119547835, 2445.669387878977, 5562.627067004816, 3060.9548796285503, 1923.8201104700645, 1365.372161736429, 14176.655456264714, 1283.536808884796, 2926.688530916628, 2813.6693384468535, 14333.754102823565, 6199.801331135153 ], "var": [ 5342.748785013344, 10157.418808368346, 5156.347680435739, 4912.865172110191, 7359.519031581773, 4233.839463544597, 5983.099461489703, 5010.621673075083, 3866.9576455161846, 7163.0259085596745, 7024.465746767407, 6490.86134256561, 3876.931146794497, 5819.689559576248, 5310.0636916401345, 3128.59398868363, 7648.8540875450135, 5460.038369577574, 5950.235932649496, 5334.993161479111, 6589.141251220651, 5456.522195854241, 12077.209215072864, 3634.126717816962, 5735.154475777078, 4928.46376732674, 10696.363395721553, 5150.754729821408, 3794.519838179998, 6821.810657391918, 8654.763963951182, 4237.740795039136 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 39.50931491299908, "crpss": 0.11707875983344906, "rps": 0.4295178584048087, "rpss": 0.049882521819545556, "mean_bias_mm": -0.3684858619962643, "mean_mae_mm": 56.730082372408106, "mean_rmse_mm": 80.08550374708852, "spread_error_ratio": 0.9697470424241574, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.3088217905784627, "pit_histogram": [ 0.10651, 0.10827, 0.10112, 0.10289, 0.10307, 0.09363, 0.09078, 0.09013, 0.08889, 0.1147 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.0731404077396181 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 38.670468295033416, 41.18346344438334, 26.582145059835568, 27.076286893057908, 204.71864354436508, 33.696149504698674, 25.03169369142333, 52.054409246881505, 22.953499771935135, 28.519189370946577, 27.5777965517983, 35.39615113155635, 45.73067812837746, 73.94612780907038, 39.0845927479414, 49.97985910520435, 36.21255368650193, 74.71161553880437, 65.09734413040857, 27.76138847424775, 49.03849514007378, 36.075773198202356, 51.10512878284281, 36.45215301623245, 31.74410477602274, 20.77626594306858, 71.45317197229132, 24.588664402882713, 34.785189813584026, 31.36293865265617, 85.29239735978041, 30.012136409815223 ], "crps_clim": [ 43.05674508597644, 47.02174056492448, 28.84873411344585, 52.31210697339705, 337.83045973804184, 54.55256595155876, 38.94875701090369, 39.57782058741483, 27.74569141249191, 34.126369417367485, 27.450347808492733, 34.017006869578225, 52.72584373838084, 95.1322901374424, 31.016202641442625, 46.77726687336443, 28.68599867750331, 67.63450525795584, 70.45970873133518, 29.076021275933627, 49.86214141911897, 34.70899724260007, 55.60856424824002, 45.9400310845385, 29.402894877394107, 33.32071549456562, 163.04105609314394, 29.873009959301736, 48.200340322444724, 32.07710679517107, 177.18917611869378, 26.893576505878865 ], "rps": [ 0.4724614809240422, 0.30243317039976375, 0.3848950426564289, 0.29921500271232226, 0.05935173694771919, 0.32613877574379024, 0.2960916958406125, 0.6108976244506774, 0.3347952280598187, 0.30744118797251657, 0.36773629474643893, 0.4156418631371629, 0.49429784661940174, 0.3376093336623476, 0.4810099645673552, 0.4846386515979863, 0.39294043760908626, 0.6321043647033988, 0.41735663807953666, 0.3015090578105932, 0.43735962399698264, 0.4784988170912843, 0.170205900957479, 0.45380062192491316, 0.4096234737194873, 0.2743814340094696, 0.08801551629138966, 0.33949271238481227, 0.37416200928055604, 0.41166852064761256, 0.07892085316410569, 0.4042028397675647 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4903301532167852, 0.44204091246608007, 0.3821454984532625, 0.5431907333012903, 0.5629552549427677, 0.538931603827915, 0.47718465303177104, 0.4269517164665013, 0.3648511299187768, 0.3588689197908303, 0.356723031227705, 0.4013877968759663, 0.5457092532164318, 0.5530781005304259, 0.3883080341726342, 0.41667877142632664, 0.33834680801777955, 0.5610985777523381, 0.4668682110446354, 0.34014334800184304, 0.464044269131601, 0.43822125796975975, 0.5000883325693602, 0.5339534977340119, 0.3734059025504393, 0.40314128440280195, 0.5592508943098848, 0.414709381099934, 0.516605453040115, 0.4212120203974677, 0.5555451413875876, 0.33021111911934736 ], "bias": [ 65.09885702658157, 38.74972284175413, 35.450497658278906, 49.06835510943236, -260.7392386276484, 54.7633702324995, 32.25540217503256, -64.99170670192387, 2.5246092709845227, -2.73838477333256, 4.346491918837726, -23.14774218195304, 78.85592382222117, -100.59641070344873, 61.84724263968823, -64.16787999978229, 44.799615260066275, 113.39328072094712, -73.69611779233053, 27.32872978548925, -54.477124124908464, -28.395183298444355, 79.33547804835901, 62.56841006863351, -18.97493690549568, 20.983439497573777, -91.95796277563664, 16.110016708050495, 62.012784974450135, 51.26075796071163, -112.42625588594314, -23.94196691819795 ], "mae": [ 67.04307582785192, 59.32824227871779, 40.64578206614043, 50.66948977892977, 260.7392386276484, 62.670854367670316, 40.33139218849199, 67.56149006276193, 29.89811559856257, 38.799381427390315, 38.563343318649125, 42.09144764630426, 78.85592382222117, 101.99560111350115, 64.16097671848982, 65.88258235878172, 66.67605945676655, 113.39328072094712, 83.99084515935122, 41.086841060928464, 60.45063761973403, 50.05990243561024, 86.23105449505819, 63.52010845580477, 34.79099174652302, 27.900160752744185, 95.0172696625276, 34.09647559787383, 62.77304395514946, 52.92555647391682, 119.03949169960212, 36.25851286687591 ], "mse": [ 5662.878061439778, 5612.643845853309, 2350.1632527979154, 3175.6583430391515, 78922.84369457091, 4741.2557979228695, 2629.6937958935437, 6460.6760420309465, 1435.8723570790169, 2574.065289426185, 2149.7558554982656, 2867.1505514257346, 7290.987257104736, 16328.1035637666, 6499.784089883187, 8378.615961346048, 5739.85924585433, 16595.373161340904, 11706.228466637649, 2583.9184965445584, 5474.140931250709, 3487.532448760392, 9998.653775817445, 4882.767935307487, 1816.3161262468054, 1127.195108342342, 12206.005176493887, 1689.0890115174097, 4707.393214697368, 4088.579186686977, 19672.906514605067, 2181.167104389567 ], "var": [ 6679.037274242995, 17679.964430196444, 7384.56063049028, 6868.571965185822, 12314.470049283193, 6396.521427465408, 7529.346022687068, 6535.85346064139, 5973.793827544088, 8155.8479212084985, 9234.98422379763, 9844.334615659349, 5669.709084852027, 8997.86127923561, 8672.278743288, 4900.408202169361, 11035.290430936355, 6115.936035897597, 8336.185654608935, 8626.124653964027, 9378.676150391895, 7137.9016196540215, 24849.145751291348, 5053.98227604104, 8757.643441893879, 7248.456422300977, 19824.346566726483, 7167.55517537069, 5898.472738587789, 8225.77284324889, 14058.676996840017, 5857.810555435153 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 46.208452362310126, "crpss": 0.2270870237919772, "rps": 0.3637155537961455, "rpss": 0.19544089265292264, "mean_bias_mm": -0.6093101552954296, "mean_mae_mm": 66.79522404254769, "mean_rmse_mm": 91.00777330528749, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0467716381901324, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.6252238175377137, "pit_histogram": [ 0.07431, 0.1039, 0.107, 0.11726, 0.11748, 0.10388, 0.09949, 0.09146, 0.09425, 0.09097 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.09903461300435358 } }, "distribution_full": { "ethiopia": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9977787006567123, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.0026319117718849702 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 0.922712892304659, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.0913159053115233 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9396155158287232, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.09398463468613494 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0383186967210682, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.06431288017407248 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0168609133269437, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.06834783905655772 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": 0.0 } }, "ondj_domain": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9968726296585839, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.0035327908735883463 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9196143371770336, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.08866775360973622 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9344696671408081, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.10754092940990145 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 1.04066502952146, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.06549858159392123 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0030303656277821, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.077622201681178 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": 0.0 } } } }, "dqm": { "training": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 29.943188022971558, 33.46744266322767, 28.34445357649448, 25.562747770809374, 174.84009626331843, 33.4955630365173, 34.45163018657555, 46.03946704193349, 19.282765471817452, 29.278380545422397, 26.1725898813753, 26.313217270518145, 32.6288203681542, 61.83779759121938, 37.49132529225208, 50.180723223588, 29.841834245269915, 57.38897889473129, 40.74698964286054, 26.076888744165423, 37.74941964834934, 34.09733016315584, 29.708533775212448, 26.189634286612858 ], "crps_clim": [ 29.83323453860368, 38.88077881844172, 26.1795875687868, 36.08822373966346, 249.9992360568139, 38.426875463916396, 39.04498825040786, 38.65484959473932, 21.062619481737414, 26.341700917326186, 23.043072155361166, 23.761208131674348, 35.758076339617475, 65.51443181552213, 28.07427178189838, 41.19686340465451, 28.3419383709928, 45.95970122915301, 42.821914300357065, 27.103313627542445, 35.0043497136804, 30.34929072242817, 36.1179019010588, 32.50133398998652 ], "rps": [ 0.4556778949498318, 0.37346378859796386, 0.4643991142349864, 0.3692037958690694, 0.15669235099738033, 0.442243189267368, 0.4361436417540708, 0.6086235895722671, 0.3590927307297609, 0.443995634188957, 0.4469479323108805, 0.4234245126001975, 0.4443817159903696, 0.44426650245578975, 0.6069053146231234, 0.627698050456607, 0.40925739139392836, 0.6684559404880339, 0.4260076687873934, 0.37919267462261735, 0.4787393130187471, 0.5389809508919329, 0.3691727521125438, 0.3894608839523154 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.43952109738446665, 0.4701037173237654, 0.4169699152477682, 0.47870260421034994, 0.5456974480225605, 0.4718891921569669, 0.47528498795368085, 0.4682080375922366, 0.3831343617912619, 0.4088195337833923, 0.40159350714274034, 0.3947124470194672, 0.4905254609590217, 0.4972930221700924, 0.4454260522581055, 0.4580123165551393, 0.4122169895751251, 0.5190225120513517, 0.4587331615402525, 0.4177409087656852, 0.44718476038056587, 0.4632550515537808, 0.44214926963850176, 0.47013731210450704 ], "bias": [ 22.229037515819726, 28.792655252497365, 24.433301312794118, 39.03579814255012, -213.72894991148442, 2.5736360777561744, -3.213683923707021, -49.80387951882721, 5.249223274702206, 22.870744345941972, 21.213416388924273, -13.765187291028438, 53.27899353188015, -78.77389372269671, 57.917287674600786, -53.769332511142885, 10.745699618549786, 90.30239313035479, -12.163775929431713, 18.151900153623437, -35.49651177761545, -30.079311779334407, 21.132734174368434, 31.303196457191376 ], "mae": [ 46.320612298092, 52.79040475201516, 42.105546805327975, 46.05976954417489, 213.83124549958663, 52.75848632484483, 52.55558168925908, 56.85803866687894, 27.690408032918633, 46.69702868983251, 38.71658534610357, 31.214160000143668, 54.51549016990738, 81.78957141391366, 59.96255290000343, 63.60889868835622, 42.4186997439921, 90.54084235227472, 57.13793027211609, 37.99020598574207, 43.74425811366219, 43.05621047572842, 42.90945934333918, 43.92158912650157 ], "mse": [ 3291.7285247579825, 4749.787093743832, 2955.3040509226566, 3060.4680565755475, 64635.858960416845, 4242.3547004685315, 4655.152012073255, 4845.1142174000215, 1208.8529543041432, 3499.226456181016, 2444.769852942727, 1648.321680065608, 4457.630803204869, 12605.169539768796, 5659.934942813976, 7139.271314572589, 2922.3357310289252, 11719.031025610057, 6368.550564149116, 2549.0482386484164, 3352.7866787122284, 2940.9681654135898, 3095.118057526946, 2850.351557202953 ], "var": [ 6363.012300624132, 11317.238902621028, 5831.625183873245, 6192.971291553212, 6779.169404267951, 4949.409252252418, 7348.396183193324, 6511.694775211252, 4326.75390941113, 8108.993314527934, 8210.982619311957, 7464.851468561825, 4010.877302493332, 5214.778622114671, 5832.9063670589685, 3419.490436931521, 9347.012777981097, 6021.0605353919655, 6826.174030154542, 4923.780419845891, 8849.073714668284, 7120.63984539875, 11585.002219832084, 3784.6769239815158 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 40.46374240027302, "crpss": 0.0662749842191156, "rps": 0.4484344722444223, "rpss": 0.010472861241685005, "mean_bias_mm": -1.7318545547380637, "mean_mae_mm": 57.049732343113114, "mean_rmse_mm": 83.39093055665202, "spread_error_ratio": 0.9801606723122147, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.31964381790942237, "pit_histogram": [ 0.1169, 0.09354, 0.09378, 0.09689, 0.09494, 0.09375, 0.09254, 0.09491, 0.09808, 0.12467 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.08314266288149047 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 38.53394032657067, 42.21198915668116, 27.264925326929436, 29.754121551050265, 248.0652701910628, 36.88635973288485, 26.108273534750687, 51.16235716946915, 24.57605051450648, 29.54437453113854, 27.716642143571395, 36.14936231891328, 46.32334735512223, 89.71572785169789, 36.28529378006711, 50.23800678328309, 32.50537018793427, 73.30300032377566, 69.61208412066455, 26.10747707814668, 53.50305767671553, 37.93812460019546, 37.52524906511866, 37.33790950089601 ], "crps_clim": [ 42.28827155959033, 47.03475528721915, 28.118112914314686, 51.435856466268575, 352.79501684228853, 53.54974195536778, 38.362106175221676, 39.349051348043986, 27.402303306971245, 33.04226475208313, 26.16461609134499, 33.51963055426904, 51.74936172381692, 99.15164309867102, 30.1279091186148, 46.27450144046246, 27.396128860915656, 66.68806658106446, 71.89082190601232, 28.449906713101416, 50.156317986314725, 34.37176519545435, 56.19481769512508, 45.209077740680264 ], "rps": [ 0.4436048595811775, 0.3471883397969519, 0.3767144430991799, 0.3108870453110355, 0.1269565468205156, 0.32958926136456496, 0.2976631335548781, 0.6065468323293374, 0.3488020018800168, 0.31279766847706575, 0.36252867379669174, 0.4248636636138409, 0.4703664608443583, 0.4082214526820223, 0.4637793517424185, 0.49408312423436407, 0.39583763329951344, 0.5969162567056859, 0.45642960044395203, 0.3024386279756067, 0.4957028982692242, 0.523280247894974, 0.21520066168660879, 0.43186177464559283 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4819055012071629, 0.444711644142145, 0.3912256783048537, 0.5314847003061296, 0.5463137996219283, 0.5246370496095673, 0.46799085581035055, 0.43018330198082794, 0.37903088404294777, 0.37602959074729786, 0.3657108710730794, 0.4071905831264576, 0.5346883545994874, 0.5378418884618463, 0.397580420764294, 0.42189702270560003, 0.35631035559982877, 0.5447213136522713, 0.4681166143725515, 0.3573140603557788, 0.4646548705590716, 0.44355045410047106, 0.4892057906870231, 0.5235515159121176 ], "bias": [ 64.24196845389571, 14.754776977929838, 35.975237450724116, 59.02418360764282, -301.75103884022525, 61.6990731081232, 43.67931956550032, -58.85007385725354, 6.421826533864747, -14.601501657801421, 5.1115717871501465, -24.490562210430305, 79.2489435027658, -119.38524496522199, 56.8295847521787, -62.249115241838766, 29.718514687877995, 112.79699183745069, -78.99138225317365, 13.313598608102412, -56.01225006014164, -28.094866113786324, 26.33640094794424, 63.34846499786402 ], "mae": [ 66.27045040441016, 59.10501631265811, 41.47282706572488, 60.226503560278495, 301.75103884022525, 69.32323566822056, 48.09398278353697, 63.62666155761759, 32.99701894518569, 36.92465512844099, 36.78938498415554, 40.6114990396095, 79.2489435027658, 119.53235909929741, 59.66986715888641, 65.05400616978406, 55.62011442464741, 112.79699183745069, 87.94044979448906, 34.009725486934734, 61.22907781168676, 50.392984656664524, 50.672500100233734, 64.78347746532422 ], "mse": [ 5530.08676125443, 5808.866020211795, 2447.6020419261504, 4370.863492570006, 103277.23909163041, 5847.8673085688315, 3238.4295947510955, 5837.854139445197, 1670.8212897641915, 2636.1889777950555, 1941.424383957807, 2660.5650540414676, 7259.935277153902, 20783.439205681076, 5735.736486534254, 8272.676698238169, 4339.905559052664, 15793.100111770374, 12545.584170040609, 1832.8682752241098, 5692.27705523099, 3497.223037079127, 4164.418466340722, 4926.815032998473 ], "var": [ 7426.926073029175, 19089.231217528028, 8491.480038965228, 9148.616598198132, 10768.168419852025, 8185.525139318011, 10208.33540032162, 8468.317777428098, 7282.189426524087, 8609.882272602441, 11012.27650434742, 11906.570156960934, 5909.976527126257, 7528.122721856995, 9788.474478874443, 5919.525660674759, 11848.102091052604, 6870.710686733458, 9817.731473474543, 8243.54393497319, 12253.569334944556, 9322.728748894797, 23487.183361075426, 5505.881777597018 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 50.348679784214404, "crpss": 0.12482869457840251, "rps": 0.3975941900020657, "rpss": 0.12342508090251159, "mean_bias_mm": -2.996899099202423, "mean_mae_mm": 70.7559488249262, "mean_rmse_mm": 100.0232863577404, "spread_error_ratio": 0.9936940502047997, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.5108669357672194, "pit_histogram": [ 0.09468, 0.09146, 0.10187, 0.11699, 0.10964, 0.10044, 0.09254, 0.07958, 0.09423, 0.11858 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.09502690174562012 } }, "operational": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 25.474461776989916, 24.291371346772955, 90.92790501420751, 19.8378689241316, 30.8818885783098, 24.789226844955238, 84.34285253322878, 50.81661092614119 ], "crps_clim": [ 24.186278935163696, 25.3510236438784, 115.19291638908858, 23.883905041341485, 31.83506561734916, 24.11958582957673, 108.55164002965007, 36.322116319494704 ], "rps": [ 0.40169346959076807, 0.4436699712809591, 0.44832873949350355, 0.3191618505144543, 0.4998937097404022, 0.4010222183151554, 0.37091343291623663, 0.6905147611787552 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.41765960837363175, 0.4211483967453936, 0.5533032169639418, 0.44730768376472113, 0.4625683819363159, 0.41678104776399905, 0.5158924087479178, 0.42890010225976694 ], "bias": [ 1.2235414407046892, -1.5891897889034963, -117.71835584817228, 11.788894984046475, 10.172845629559477, 29.393118390081867, -94.92061971662754, -53.16736295379565 ], "mae": [ 33.50060175471576, 32.403299007924296, 118.82297589574993, 27.626250551410717, 47.13714461000969, 41.49291446628025, 109.71239694112907, 61.86038326473017 ], "mse": [ 1772.4190969390297, 1750.673122959895, 18454.258057918545, 1324.8114397755605, 3235.032042051736, 2663.459282816578, 20008.48610522855, 6598.710766982525 ], "var": [ 6607.172114460892, 5527.305102121022, 10690.890122966975, 6211.8049500576135, 4468.979226231317, 7583.4062885203775, 9291.379502369058, 5469.992584685082 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 43.920273243092126, "crpss": 0.09778168215026961, "rps": 0.4468997691287793, "rpss": 0.02411934651188563, "mean_bias_mm": -26.852140982888308, "mean_mae_mm": 59.06949581149374, "mean_rmse_mm": 83.52233976209031, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0003858925427909, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.4149778351273311, "pit_histogram": [ 0.03659, 0.05065, 0.07243, 0.09397, 0.11076, 0.09984, 0.09028, 0.1009, 0.13131, 0.21326 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.3124604095244146 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 30.813256854070204, 21.66505919834704, 98.84317474336704, 25.391984204502094, 34.998795840059884, 29.55809069482844, 118.4241105412785, 29.480617220444405 ], "crps_clim": [ 27.513828107781922, 30.99293899368493, 161.45686691829505, 27.920571148564072, 44.378057761090616, 29.766973014786096, 175.6320250314755, 25.22282617443876 ], "rps": [ 0.4044675447501081, 0.2922799039437256, 0.17946126185892958, 0.36009880032357205, 0.3779627370309387, 0.4004684539566405, 0.1587113337047021, 0.4130381886687622 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.37168677457254995, 0.40830736189644173, 0.5514955486398806, 0.4122454653654102, 0.5073582603125171, 0.4229682694777741, 0.5480141318493015, 0.3433109764761434 ], "bias": [ -18.22054642807809, 26.016704725317943, -128.9295379589368, 18.535486407320388, 63.790347251496584, 49.115623694014815, -148.34380151958672, -14.36094522404243 ], "mae": [ 33.1727200464645, 32.15762698634433, 131.721311457736, 35.1726913407669, 64.7181214635103, 51.51382202064962, 154.14406751461414, 34.20267267011922 ], "mse": [ 1665.3136586076826, 1456.8436521516346, 20879.08806498639, 1766.7803095092697, 4915.1989769076645, 3866.7052093623624, 31419.46845821748, 1967.889494101373 ], "var": [ 10133.028228953357, 8094.531254038524, 18423.673523189183, 8932.51577613754, 7215.732139769517, 9446.349121258605, 13848.62563704266, 7986.863651526708 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 48.6468861621122, "crpss": 0.25571441384260807, "rps": 0.3233110280296724, "rpss": 0.27455606429162716, "mean_bias_mm": -19.049583631561788, "mean_mae_mm": 67.10037918752562, "mean_rmse_mm": 92.15292170072787, "spread_error_ratio": 1.112488822740152, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.8688382757486207, "pit_histogram": [ 0.02639, 0.07206, 0.10548, 0.12532, 0.11777, 0.11704, 0.09328, 0.1038, 0.10233, 0.13654 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.2165400841829178 } }, "full": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 28.867456045751204, 35.07698528179163, 30.087747337159787, 27.334766642265567, 165.11615248070933, 31.108662443894975, 32.62224144338261, 42.5671968693965, 18.973899162793728, 31.6602898497109, 28.973722801846368, 25.61498576224715, 34.92211527171464, 56.905094520862995, 41.0766025068948, 49.07172584266808, 30.05455867121705, 60.88787253019472, 42.15781386203158, 26.824538923581056, 35.745704386284835, 30.65005288672682, 30.25804741635054, 26.627681206946495, 26.10343260519918, 22.97724859283664, 89.15018329313779, 20.450853613779593, 30.07150042511874, 25.557891717291486, 82.38909790564493, 48.4526669310713 ], "crps_clim": [ 30.220473451764587, 39.917418564936064, 27.757568172072368, 37.802333372958124, 238.75051318915055, 37.61181929878509, 37.616082531632294, 37.23600638646016, 21.306686770765648, 28.4780000830409, 25.20476923730856, 24.600584384519205, 37.81772054414582, 61.83148106658277, 29.811614275645827, 41.56571447524313, 29.657529779748423, 47.67275462965923, 43.64083140619902, 27.6391470098042, 34.1009877354789, 28.817911129816427, 35.16768869621822, 33.87686011313925, 25.87047943593951, 26.437105491714817, 114.62794696826606, 26.4205712229385, 33.14461289262585, 24.563582570388807, 107.27766982133843, 35.50441102323164 ], "rps": [ 0.43567223019000534, 0.38963567611029615, 0.48562079592526225, 0.38345446948036455, 0.14143992071224093, 0.40003098255807396, 0.4213783317572994, 0.5695878574116898, 0.3583170904058527, 0.4731208902297064, 0.46532737864868073, 0.4060865921167946, 0.46315930780767056, 0.40910631528769337, 0.6454437503908865, 0.6078015197738725, 0.39800668826093827, 0.706976729105054, 0.43811975780700807, 0.4105371950054646, 0.446796841840952, 0.4943252726711784, 0.3666103207385389, 0.3908420694258947, 0.3925497622679102, 0.39828414855550975, 0.4220738598371352, 0.3151479878568294, 0.4596257851683759, 0.4028577707716723, 0.3584655708771355, 0.6562111567551663 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.42752784364987473, 0.47525412925412475, 0.4178646042147745, 0.4860452399955733, 0.5615292811104182, 0.4629144820543785, 0.4720919884684642, 0.46355275516950334, 0.3602950493837294, 0.41093548411809694, 0.39925120731108465, 0.3862724441100123, 0.4981591164438388, 0.48945929833950264, 0.4479384312130977, 0.4604687964566817, 0.402555507760245, 0.5325649512878922, 0.46103987989217676, 0.4197441009203777, 0.4304978343784619, 0.45092626124868035, 0.4260850230367853, 0.4774252618219362, 0.4145131464744774, 0.4091714328578628, 0.5607984489124369, 0.46414258203020875, 0.45688333757744265, 0.4028824114723692, 0.5188382677855484, 0.41855246264432233 ], "bias": [ 27.44702394623823, 34.776159357654, 31.010973100905098, 44.79915205075831, -203.93911491379268, 8.365733666958752, 3.468330164533673, -43.06539030558697, 11.54284071372432, 28.881296373214226, 28.00752218570621, -7.856294531920357, 58.79277834128473, -71.0625190273616, 64.72015975839454, -47.460077946450916, 16.56256473931981, 96.1814301926822, -5.856579520022638, 24.86357394604889, -29.31537871401506, -24.059648648405304, 29.18134242738901, 36.20939766619333, 7.4598171472626, 3.8859574549399793, -115.44171634634586, 17.493239175311807, 16.03124295658434, 37.365691859453115, -91.19747797439894, -49.585246625463505 ], "mae": [ 46.154074824491985, 53.89014339129152, 46.19386748436219, 49.949791416115175, 204.1848880441382, 50.74435281156442, 52.098159462889576, 52.72214494503377, 27.878392130513724, 51.4665602520613, 43.62291710188194, 31.258572539502673, 59.46844501988478, 75.24119972184613, 66.03722735127192, 62.428300294623185, 44.819136992952956, 96.19768129431323, 59.948563957578465, 40.4952177830877, 40.39846134614752, 37.74947586210118, 44.840378548420404, 45.539348696161916, 33.093899287655724, 31.56043915166054, 116.43223298122608, 30.662250183689, 47.60715186204365, 44.71218072085744, 107.16018986297127, 59.14970718628626 ], "mse": [ 3341.367899695697, 4878.110805970383, 3462.0339803065563, 3547.155219043277, 60913.29435755231, 4003.807942690364, 4420.522345476516, 4237.341162520731, 1193.0363888868721, 4182.575667865123, 3155.3467614720994, 1638.22678946707, 5157.337269185033, 11129.839664540872, 6642.034050624428, 6844.6908436454305, 3173.5509772739233, 12811.16178725329, 6691.163815950665, 2698.2642992780875, 2945.8726191249884, 2348.229081622153, 3297.627752287161, 3102.9162278569033, 1775.1299927639577, 1605.847793878699, 17691.753414044437, 1505.7497120459445, 3337.1584753714087, 2912.5669927259655, 19266.9620480345, 5978.011192948877 ], "var": [ 6522.869800890438, 11081.524531558944, 5996.979915259138, 6185.663308450342, 7755.320315518062, 5147.684689195824, 7508.717430545767, 6592.779860105709, 4584.053705356257, 7945.238448794446, 8351.553816687438, 7528.235967389271, 4288.328377320899, 5828.759363536572, 6159.12596850082, 3606.8728439290417, 9423.66236446782, 6230.243783735435, 7031.2180702382, 5395.5703275588, 8719.819843215253, 7028.754407727665, 11970.957597879584, 3999.704503088306, 6990.743580331065, 5765.670563846586, 10425.335604408441, 6504.225869262161, 4670.4178228675355, 7995.601299257672, 8912.927432867546, 5615.4005755439 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 40.88558716345322, "crpss": 0.0863229746508013, "rps": 0.44101918830472353, "rpss": 0.02444093808467418, "mean_bias_mm": -1.9310380415377075, "mean_mae_mm": 57.92829226589456, "mean_rmse_mm": 82.89464083465448, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0042550924684357, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.3305424007928888, "pit_histogram": [ 0.11814, 0.08888, 0.09098, 0.09548, 0.09628, 0.09661, 0.09332, 0.09768, 0.10222, 0.12042 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.08155811696384316 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 38.487691868239246, 42.20428037491992, 26.777075849449897, 30.425803087881174, 242.071927219521, 37.60562713542468, 26.43092711774559, 49.485009582040036, 23.933283544858252, 29.360739660839204, 27.928816221292227, 35.86779668939382, 46.4339627902831, 85.97699557974958, 36.44251885911231, 49.529786024269434, 32.30830517905475, 73.40218568412216, 68.65271982345612, 25.394285577943897, 52.76911542345335, 37.065573784248166, 37.38387612309969, 37.2164733580968, 31.975774719539903, 22.148985104839284, 101.05997353543832, 26.088405810453583, 36.899412003676964, 30.77145157792658, 120.2860952038595, 29.951217547340956 ], "crps_clim": [ 43.05674508597644, 47.02174056492448, 28.84873411344585, 52.31210697339705, 337.83045973804184, 54.55256595155876, 38.94875701090369, 39.57782058741483, 27.74569141249191, 34.126369417367485, 27.450347808492733, 34.017006869578225, 52.72584373838084, 95.1322901374424, 31.016202641442625, 46.77726687336443, 28.68599867750331, 67.63450525795584, 70.45970873133518, 29.076021275933627, 49.86214141911897, 34.70899724260007, 55.60856424824002, 45.9400310845385, 29.402894877394107, 33.32071549456562, 163.04105609314394, 29.873009959301736, 48.200340322444724, 32.07710679517107, 177.18917611869378, 26.893576505878865 ], "rps": [ 0.44859956923611216, 0.34228164031991515, 0.37752391706947175, 0.31620982756436494, 0.11883480366846767, 0.34314750632318974, 0.30851362417933753, 0.5940613178510141, 0.3427524730072712, 0.3093876192620071, 0.3677110246353906, 0.42371182437855753, 0.47608692763878646, 0.4097404257598784, 0.45732450133112595, 0.4864925037867921, 0.37652774086670143, 0.6033036850849289, 0.4531215244815901, 0.28968952380425944, 0.4920917719404593, 0.5134715450334016, 0.2066207822225566, 0.43498186108742776, 0.4133508625057552, 0.283824520070303, 0.16626137382509362, 0.3550725968792993, 0.37376328706421463, 0.3927855010430714, 0.14690689152305783, 0.3942783935800823 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4903301532167852, 0.44204091246608007, 0.3821454984532625, 0.5431907333012903, 0.5629552549427677, 0.538931603827915, 0.47718465303177104, 0.4269517164665013, 0.3648511299187768, 0.3588689197908303, 0.356723031227705, 0.4013877968759663, 0.5457092532164318, 0.5530781005304259, 0.3883080341726342, 0.41667877142632664, 0.33834680801777955, 0.5610985777523381, 0.4668682110446354, 0.34014334800184304, 0.464044269131601, 0.43822125796975975, 0.5000883325693602, 0.5339534977340119, 0.3734059025504393, 0.40314128440280195, 0.5592508943098848, 0.414709381099934, 0.516605453040115, 0.4212120203974677, 0.5555451413875876, 0.33021111911934736 ], "bias": [ 67.24784401542922, 19.156363804622817, 39.11750394739114, 62.62248652907689, -296.09569006978245, 64.54075031980943, 47.39912575465174, -54.50194925360282, 9.845996158576176, -11.338075732824816, 8.901693725206615, -20.116129430269574, 81.9684841037057, -113.11497464990565, 60.79164394337558, -58.86297134751344, 34.06958006470184, 114.47539530249742, -75.03185357170534, 16.907638047382353, -52.52133650387939, -25.099606960078418, 32.13915090307991, 65.67878791111222, -14.104591572517894, 30.174110435580765, -129.50103936455778, 22.702945985814477, 69.2182139498225, 54.75205351738073, -149.3154819607233, -11.636622454937381 ], "mae": [ 68.9665488744481, 57.38522574761723, 43.65510389982124, 63.78254226647589, 296.09569006978245, 72.44471079388634, 51.3625388674294, 60.020301350513854, 32.482945863826124, 37.99367231569414, 38.28110043423086, 40.69462563354989, 81.9684841037057, 113.43667804646775, 63.109030119799684, 62.521454312122266, 58.376243537705285, 114.47539530249742, 85.49806140466502, 35.23357427402317, 58.797776488686445, 47.566247740373385, 53.17412497125098, 66.88907973535845, 31.627644257276067, 34.860427613692906, 131.98969096262311, 39.34932694527795, 69.9443599776347, 56.1281749816118, 154.63174820965173, 33.73433280397368 ], "mse": [ 5943.627589115518, 5576.997691759699, 2626.2525402071074, 4830.389862719618, 99791.87699672612, 6303.861171844599, 3567.051842712689, 5278.945517745403, 1615.359037242484, 2696.398527098, 2071.472134248812, 2606.0017057780774, 7693.678814375991, 19031.170916559215, 6106.221496034361, 7987.212860805492, 4679.205015377917, 16074.05072855416, 12074.196819445033, 1919.2818397625554, 5294.597484667629, 3189.009486202073, 4456.323683626462, 5273.982331254833, 1559.4658739028757, 1672.029611655162, 20838.85726735841, 2144.8735327393183, 5695.060877533151, 4409.172344842242, 31738.74630076406, 1906.7379436200645 ], "var": [ 7894.255194317896, 18841.689136626537, 8809.179619610717, 9326.629699556488, 12205.48383302714, 8476.771066132684, 10403.339815839552, 8758.672379827838, 7739.952351849991, 8729.33502169218, 11268.39756864354, 12100.269730820555, 6467.333555334341, 8881.788456073959, 10391.950679479854, 6124.735792545849, 12625.486004175407, 7204.7645212005555, 10172.051337203342, 8959.948034507546, 12274.39811356515, 9182.020930513962, 24684.45119802068, 5868.144782527085, 11018.044956907645, 8503.18616216261, 18263.18756047039, 9388.057520723758, 7669.0358172593715, 10123.726005744778, 13204.222245414552, 8313.370701270165 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 49.760502876924036, "crpss": 0.16767308987864893, "rps": 0.3755759802194964, "rpss": 0.16920496736369184, "mean_bias_mm": -3.4228298266587736, "mean_mae_mm": 70.51490193455228, "mean_rmse_mm": 97.89217758685432, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0434418311032798, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.6128438188849068, "pit_histogram": [ 0.09164, 0.08972, 0.09708, 0.10892, 0.10453, 0.10435, 0.09895, 0.09474, 0.10616, 0.10391 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.05573915720882776 } }, "distribution_full": { "ethiopia": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9933339337775772, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.012833028730645887 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9627294262773389, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.07004879171474152 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9575672045744411, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.06204370932595052 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0029059602086785, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.03217366765701514 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0208993781626912, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.05808849913976171 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": 0.0 } }, "ondj_domain": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9846911164895229, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.02126367411384766 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 0.921219340258005, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.09834254397351132 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9738071532728274, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.06339640582631968 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0099666456589176, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.03976169444788639 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9900741713347812, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.06129499324441276 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": 0.0 } } } }, "qdm": { "training": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 29.144338123849067, 33.19364263207189, 27.796348500305935, 25.330730034806386, 175.39195113962697, 33.35228106986656, 34.154565642699666, 45.8491367249469, 19.472123722732327, 29.241913785416525, 26.10902071823373, 25.929498186320327, 32.30812803057513, 60.26928962140047, 38.059351211987064, 49.345401070667215, 29.40337900470792, 57.0317638471817, 40.548629246642, 26.341946370312197, 37.305234424847576, 33.84385531142839, 30.940769304522814, 25.67068440750217 ], "crps_clim": [ 29.83323453860368, 38.88077881844172, 26.1795875687868, 36.08822373966346, 249.9992360568139, 38.426875463916396, 39.04498825040786, 38.65484959473932, 21.062619481737414, 26.341700917326186, 23.043072155361166, 23.761208131674348, 35.758076339617475, 65.51443181552213, 28.07427178189838, 41.19686340465451, 28.3419383709928, 45.95970122915301, 42.821914300357065, 27.103313627542445, 35.0043497136804, 30.34929072242817, 36.1179019010588, 32.50133398998652 ], "rps": [ 0.44598673917800563, 0.3752259151722091, 0.46365395982454805, 0.3653794029461597, 0.1563235446959051, 0.43687471845060083, 0.43358338637863864, 0.6047926797881452, 0.3670048497461788, 0.44539794554956724, 0.4431551332614336, 0.4211232392716472, 0.44707046873518846, 0.44576488831686945, 0.6255413341855877, 0.6240358674731802, 0.41285702108660105, 0.6634981754261449, 0.4273962355165234, 0.3931192654040452, 0.4724181727000114, 0.5332572148229914, 0.39308434498539346, 0.3848389257147498 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.43952109738446665, 0.4701037173237654, 0.4169699152477682, 0.47870260421034994, 0.5456974480225605, 0.4718891921569669, 0.47528498795368085, 0.4682080375922366, 0.3831343617912619, 0.4088195337833923, 0.40159350714274034, 0.3947124470194672, 0.4905254609590217, 0.4972930221700924, 0.4454260522581055, 0.4580123165551393, 0.4122169895751251, 0.5190225120513517, 0.4587331615402525, 0.4177409087656852, 0.44718476038056587, 0.4632550515537808, 0.44214926963850176, 0.47013731210450704 ], "bias": [ 23.30171005307037, 28.895182527543128, 26.823017715218967, 38.6554012710399, -213.6982654147331, 3.986639532021439, -4.076067902930746, -48.804540719277405, 7.6807485029424685, 24.226573643155167, 22.73625934828869, -13.184730325706436, 56.079848194794856, -75.40027869744688, 61.19878032808721, -50.885548878168244, 10.249242280056412, 92.64762293943284, -9.655636600295477, 21.567239304285636, -35.10669246624446, -29.192728230185296, 26.44243522976749, 33.31731708404489 ], "mae": [ 47.00146175385398, 51.838777290804856, 43.018058906421416, 45.72578987351548, 213.87120966688354, 52.69437198747402, 52.52572499719318, 56.49717508429686, 28.80842198409257, 45.91100079919698, 39.656995123402055, 30.978114985474733, 57.21051040855013, 78.45272652162957, 63.21175321632715, 61.36160342659429, 42.887984059604676, 92.89576214691837, 57.41260949676874, 40.08328099269156, 43.540821517259765, 42.418975788565156, 45.096961760680585, 45.27484734868562 ], "mse": [ 3443.1140755255105, 4567.050033614995, 2999.4717831577486, 2987.548501141997, 65004.70487444262, 4236.229178350371, 4653.6114809126875, 4799.637290325473, 1282.8791075959195, 3352.562073500404, 2583.1268818523763, 1632.065291375372, 4919.053436543772, 11508.220726428764, 6234.429717913223, 6769.822717055364, 2949.7545809330113, 12462.822984842285, 6315.310831571543, 2749.2481040727894, 3307.9519064805168, 2844.7020422124297, 3376.2632117128032, 3055.1086131231427 ], "var": [ 7198.1367048782495, 12095.541215633864, 6884.864764185269, 6209.690572878142, 6613.457253666355, 5613.4224797407505, 7471.710109875133, 7000.926641179871, 5198.563184413498, 9183.88408553938, 9425.333079990547, 8052.520747376818, 5261.958709592975, 7294.21379233125, 6955.406227685015, 4534.101655574586, 9859.903736415425, 7414.830370440845, 8273.8402704928, 6962.747942497653, 8842.417437152695, 7869.209757371273, 14118.53452556551, 4961.702666824375 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 40.25141592219379, "crpss": 0.07117454447565497, "rps": 0.4492243095262636, "rpss": 0.008729985807347185, "mean_bias_mm": -0.09151963671827208, "mean_mae_mm": 57.432289130703545, "mean_rmse_mm": 83.67464008604128, "spread_error_ratio": 1.044427040805838, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.3086069651548435, "pit_histogram": [ 0.12698, 0.08811, 0.08893, 0.09575, 0.09624, 0.09459, 0.09292, 0.09607, 0.1035, 0.11692 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.09479515965661336 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 37.00420228019226, 41.67573738764302, 26.31478365559687, 29.470018587711095, 249.4876875981853, 36.773572405398276, 25.475079008046837, 51.22875257210863, 24.36803610472916, 29.929261353457623, 27.5036370998236, 35.84406710412437, 44.83273901151064, 87.06121235724152, 35.855397591337116, 50.61805020324959, 32.15456289915209, 72.34995856714023, 69.0880698236493, 26.513155810197297, 52.98791456955873, 37.726394486699874, 38.05517344064049, 35.848968369574024 ], "crps_clim": [ 42.28827155959033, 47.03475528721915, 28.118112914314686, 51.435856466268575, 352.79501684228853, 53.54974195536778, 38.362106175221676, 39.349051348043986, 27.402303306971245, 33.04226475208313, 26.16461609134499, 33.51963055426904, 51.74936172381692, 99.15164309867102, 30.1279091186148, 46.27450144046246, 27.396128860915656, 66.68806658106446, 71.89082190601232, 28.449906713101416, 50.156317986314725, 34.37176519545435, 56.19481769512508, 45.209077740680264 ], "rps": [ 0.4224694875074757, 0.349069676082035, 0.3670546408018991, 0.30417547002368395, 0.14067308999242195, 0.3321630672269167, 0.29581174001264476, 0.6039289998765277, 0.3500989889432216, 0.3201359179859814, 0.36368135233681625, 0.4241981623117294, 0.4578078946791774, 0.41483058623425983, 0.46207282215453394, 0.5041161599310124, 0.39342508109166113, 0.5868821775497328, 0.4604766641857848, 0.3103019520713061, 0.49199480739425566, 0.5167107255345383, 0.22235349690050335, 0.4212636845873556 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4819055012071629, 0.444711644142145, 0.3912256783048537, 0.5314847003061296, 0.5463137996219283, 0.5246370496095673, 0.46799085581035055, 0.43018330198082794, 0.37903088404294777, 0.37602959074729786, 0.3657108710730794, 0.4071905831264576, 0.5346883545994874, 0.5378418884618463, 0.397580420764294, 0.42189702270560003, 0.35631035559982877, 0.5447213136522713, 0.4681166143725515, 0.3573140603557788, 0.4646548705590716, 0.44355045410047106, 0.4892057906870231, 0.5235515159121176 ], "bias": [ 66.61269651891897, 15.618726584554619, 37.9893527126697, 58.02441388235064, -304.0844367021398, 62.52886238516373, 43.109358400431944, -57.20942582343867, 8.019491336500273, -10.298329014092834, 5.918159976955626, -24.573687639285485, 82.44414490159454, -113.42239331327949, 59.84251664998931, -59.194163565302965, 31.379262287876255, 116.15048361229469, -75.73644629225107, 17.33482868630003, -55.362927839133576, -26.37221181140888, 31.09438889987661, 65.93653872458457 ], "mae": [ 68.46530972464207, 57.35960121280768, 42.85239947128411, 59.29785192954035, 304.0844367021398, 69.75183418552287, 47.573607626630285, 62.937314495128334, 33.61238325118279, 35.915287451621026, 37.22416839205217, 40.96878848391091, 82.44414490159454, 113.64470312776079, 62.60486083247167, 62.729928838251695, 55.879039988477345, 116.15048361229469, 86.2050781443409, 36.44452890021114, 60.90658297410155, 49.07617855247013, 52.67611095386934, 67.19260172958076 ], "mse": [ 5910.5186124477605, 5540.6306518382235, 2538.0751023911894, 4204.680190092189, 104933.69360348872, 5855.84613273486, 3190.6903526717406, 5746.9497232205695, 1738.9951616435196, 2464.589884105326, 1996.596540625648, 2694.9807626494044, 7854.797451291223, 18862.9642104639, 6207.685399676235, 7956.2298498731825, 4306.329446285891, 16883.2642556043, 12105.497102888072, 2071.427358139121, 5621.012119505525, 3336.2944361890573, 4466.761557697121, 5306.256133364793 ], "var": [ 9137.288781463394, 20931.125308536226, 10396.761540655047, 8867.267541626974, 10854.674905801552, 8790.193263476107, 10092.484163926738, 9401.546082315339, 8266.10579970003, 11376.350484738672, 12085.82591608639, 12417.85724711273, 7923.759024767731, 11344.962024088054, 11163.546587667399, 7558.861101228553, 14146.692089686278, 8883.986136662601, 11944.98587296444, 11761.716747078592, 12945.409711969958, 10505.98124598602, 27913.510182467184, 7415.363506634039 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 49.92360134529033, "crpss": 0.13221749710300013, "rps": 0.39648736022564474, "rpss": 0.12586530575015298, "mean_bias_mm": -1.0104498516779696, "mean_mae_mm": 71.08321772841195, "mean_rmse_mm": 100.37321315115395, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0686374842263842, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.499191589392853, "pit_histogram": [ 0.08963, 0.0892, 0.09794, 0.11888, 0.11407, 0.10351, 0.09503, 0.08228, 0.10281, 0.10666 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.0918234183310433 } }, "operational": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 25.298723110227797, 24.078344995315675, 91.2989899870455, 19.611461598344214, 30.612551326283796, 24.55467100175681, 84.04103936063173, 50.69395978130101 ], "crps_clim": [ 24.186278935163696, 25.3510236438784, 115.19291638908858, 23.883905041341485, 31.83506561734916, 24.11958582957673, 108.55164002965007, 36.322116319494704 ], "rps": [ 0.40056584555034314, 0.4414296208521904, 0.4538116739925222, 0.3150330041548263, 0.4944035503744471, 0.39810837087692913, 0.39726827857634484, 0.6911389829120392 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.41765960837363175, 0.4211483967453936, 0.5533032169639418, 0.44730768376472113, 0.4625683819363159, 0.41678104776399905, 0.5158924087479178, 0.42890010225976694 ], "bias": [ 2.0313185165915653, -0.9850999040393427, -116.92037151758211, 11.833151855359327, 11.558368659760395, 29.32895559413248, -92.45256998157082, -53.64472836905588 ], "mae": [ 33.36390662269546, 32.65527995494844, 118.0264776948105, 27.684060674545773, 47.58739536332689, 41.31677976789374, 108.38513159112497, 62.33532879613129 ], "mse": [ 1776.367277754539, 1774.9400572819343, 18233.903243200664, 1327.752658688373, 3294.6476095240146, 2643.726480456327, 19501.92474584025, 6634.4388243755775 ], "var": [ 6823.119656368161, 5998.663296419028, 12332.613677172274, 6341.314931163496, 4884.814396847577, 7968.845659985929, 10823.167332610949, 5443.14045715543 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 43.77371764511332, "crpss": 0.10079225415532178, "rps": 0.4489699159112053, "rpss": 0.019598833559308915, "mean_bias_mm": -26.156371893300552, "mean_mae_mm": 58.91929505818463, "mean_rmse_mm": 83.05698412620224, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0480242642526894, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.41124318029210866, "pit_histogram": [ 0.04035, 0.04782, 0.06862, 0.09501, 0.11152, 0.09995, 0.09028, 0.10191, 0.13488, 0.20966 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.3159430160267994 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 30.552732683582626, 21.383633572078047, 99.3684021887608, 24.96765936269675, 34.43616359008647, 29.22337655400428, 116.81333990052896, 29.180645146121478 ], "crps_clim": [ 27.513828107781922, 30.99293899368493, 161.45686691829505, 27.920571148564072, 44.378057761090616, 29.766973014786096, 175.6320250314755, 25.22282617443876 ], "rps": [ 0.40440264977235235, 0.2886590389464234, 0.19706765523361797, 0.3533878405283446, 0.36984463941486667, 0.3981143627445595, 0.18574020246228498, 0.4156873275514225 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.37168677457254995, 0.40830736189644173, 0.5514955486398806, 0.4122454653654102, 0.5073582603125171, 0.4229682694777741, 0.5480141318493015, 0.3433109764761434 ], "bias": [ -17.47565782921547, 26.83827721985768, -126.16645683235096, 19.400483600527334, 64.86490990454907, 49.72127053378729, -144.48472345129957, -14.382683709596185 ], "mae": [ 32.833397409226556, 32.71007389801352, 128.96313387383813, 35.65336421882001, 65.70912435756803, 51.919684144755095, 150.25650967368514, 34.491920366773215 ], "mse": [ 1636.7990945764016, 1501.099636851941, 20043.551065790813, 1798.0219892277714, 5038.523273347319, 3899.2108092886715, 30156.207657332077, 1966.0529486310204 ], "var": [ 10352.161732250088, 8990.547870963295, 22202.934829481652, 9161.97377970933, 7695.704214025516, 10113.388521471055, 17536.72288686625, 7830.282815535233 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 48.24074412473243, "crpss": 0.2619282887316815, "rps": 0.326612964581734, "rpss": 0.2671471928331285, "mean_bias_mm": -17.710572570467605, "mean_mae_mm": 66.56715099283497, "mean_rmse_mm": 90.85666353867916, "spread_error_ratio": 1.1923214554573447, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.8745827906207329, "pit_histogram": [ 0.02682, 0.06953, 0.09903, 0.12313, 0.12783, 0.11448, 0.09611, 0.1061, 0.11707, 0.11988 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.21698951684174772 } }, "full": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 28.29584717218217, 34.99432012355367, 29.80621424899378, 26.871621654165025, 161.73097070710844, 30.865363354871917, 32.19138960290147, 42.68846532735169, 19.376340049799193, 31.744232989320672, 29.048583800922305, 25.307084851671007, 35.03729007121196, 55.659219266055445, 42.416505168267875, 48.564725629971704, 29.72676460897908, 61.05468830757938, 41.72254598018943, 27.339707958275373, 35.193082004089845, 30.41776490049947, 31.936862058761996, 26.28810575997601, 26.025970542687737, 22.752014509452362, 89.13755083265737, 20.240911775222965, 29.876667469273183, 25.3952779008976, 81.77068468687742, 48.372301988894236 ], "crps_clim": [ 30.220473451764587, 39.917418564936064, 27.757568172072368, 37.802333372958124, 238.75051318915055, 37.61181929878509, 37.616082531632294, 37.23600638646016, 21.306686770765648, 28.4780000830409, 25.20476923730856, 24.600584384519205, 37.81772054414582, 61.83148106658277, 29.811614275645827, 41.56571447524313, 29.657529779748423, 47.67275462965923, 43.64083140619902, 27.6391470098042, 34.1009877354789, 28.817911129816427, 35.16768869621822, 33.87686011313925, 25.87047943593951, 26.437105491714817, 114.62794696826606, 26.4205712229385, 33.14461289262585, 24.563582570388807, 107.27766982133843, 35.50441102323164 ], "rps": [ 0.42932348525992264, 0.38906738176733796, 0.483574415884928, 0.3785202024087889, 0.14035094974410972, 0.39479248388437826, 0.4175552073797028, 0.5661799438841875, 0.3677227954079543, 0.4735197277458683, 0.4663098881943272, 0.4066262218159665, 0.47442072998188883, 0.411822562696291, 0.6751616808503021, 0.6034811084081086, 0.40302534461057055, 0.7067612302461292, 0.43705690688640814, 0.42841667865178007, 0.4432293390330336, 0.4884183698697707, 0.3955678219532041, 0.3874099281156135, 0.3931275298575778, 0.3933264482636954, 0.4266617039514526, 0.3106904386634175, 0.45278240324021085, 0.4007317818638962, 0.3829125846777414, 0.6578616033450482 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.42752784364987473, 0.47525412925412475, 0.4178646042147745, 0.4860452399955733, 0.5615292811104182, 0.4629144820543785, 0.4720919884684642, 0.46355275516950334, 0.3602950493837294, 0.41093548411809694, 0.39925120731108465, 0.3862724441100123, 0.4981591164438388, 0.48945929833950264, 0.4479384312130977, 0.4604687964566817, 0.402555507760245, 0.5325649512878922, 0.46103987989217676, 0.4197441009203777, 0.4304978343784619, 0.45092626124868035, 0.4260850230367853, 0.4774252618219362, 0.4145131464744774, 0.4091714328578628, 0.5607984489124369, 0.46414258203020875, 0.45688333757744265, 0.4028824114723692, 0.5188382677855484, 0.41855246264432233 ], "bias": [ 28.72489904309096, 35.72850911996205, 33.45047664491122, 44.39433340634136, -201.20466382594452, 9.980784112859398, 2.489701954249985, -42.116286066234835, 14.229159555742168, 31.27428931733985, 29.543232436557386, -7.1654356087019755, 61.79579344643652, -67.67432854306423, 68.12735882142682, -44.39094426527115, 16.56559176764568, 99.0325034692662, -3.022954848621912, 28.53428663266092, -28.10150336979245, -22.590772011032993, 34.88933944729261, 38.53972834332954, 8.021169770067889, 4.395144346771096, -114.07775663751302, 17.393515569950512, 17.592961092708112, 37.54273905604149, -88.55595875126423, -49.87778504014468 ], "mae": [ 46.96321177186202, 53.62161099061334, 47.27467020269953, 49.39263728535464, 201.52780768425697, 50.5922547843631, 51.65927341146739, 52.76507175053273, 29.34495107851446, 51.23591425210718, 44.785701250167946, 30.913584039674063, 62.400938012608755, 72.09510609270487, 69.27749832069489, 60.560901334835336, 45.18237282601903, 99.03590482438503, 59.99397955482265, 42.77102392849405, 39.873287466513915, 36.83683101497394, 47.79729478006624, 47.27992736735959, 33.31252619197715, 31.675163711837723, 115.09183921463372, 30.52017894202085, 47.959234237288555, 44.68699718823543, 105.81307965337568, 59.36883005918603 ], "mse": [ 3497.304948494969, 4800.85053714173, 3527.509115626177, 3451.9860533945753, 59612.86302223019, 3984.9481723671456, 4380.241971801244, 4263.759607065407, 1307.7948986219762, 4079.672530508013, 3329.091441977596, 1617.6756327647722, 5688.040741737449, 10232.27351748114, 7268.5718782617805, 6541.650473053262, 3181.375467368693, 13633.653873786456, 6564.889374666819, 2923.6852195245788, 2852.1837429486895, 2248.769821083802, 3701.3538097861406, 3367.0143280106327, 1806.9066695768927, 1613.9044721043172, 17304.780889221798, 1492.5134453533526, 3396.6315477568164, 2897.179205128852, 18693.845652314503, 5994.92070593413 ], "var": [ 7244.482639840258, 12149.470656870646, 6914.412181439031, 6372.170035440968, 8371.73756789437, 5732.806444486439, 7671.1334639619645, 6978.375450567757, 5312.727996766417, 9284.803858580059, 9429.02020663416, 8207.495936917512, 5324.780905214378, 7586.745993481089, 7036.8974131208215, 4570.76053332014, 9861.376892267635, 7447.241872247884, 8253.16711875175, 7030.052681158069, 8901.56931109676, 7784.457412690666, 13990.05638433445, 5074.387642677615, 7121.1072375616595, 6220.400912612953, 12089.807589780461, 6537.228780375548, 4974.449161239574, 8318.457837078147, 10275.791088327025, 5615.471035158188 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 40.68278360320818, "crpss": 0.0908550595861145, "rps": 0.44332527807948785, "rpss": 0.01933973877856343, "mean_bias_mm": -0.20415223790419468, "mean_mae_mm": 58.175300100738966, "mean_rmse_mm": 82.77564609516307, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0628461278830243, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.3254926689514873, "pit_histogram": [ 0.12917, 0.08384, 0.08568, 0.09353, 0.09744, 0.09633, 0.09384, 0.09957, 0.11273, 0.10787 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.09954482082726258 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 37.267032840444415, 41.81109016331549, 26.160610638678357, 29.5046647357684, 235.15243903545937, 37.24125227247835, 25.50625847071782, 50.04071460494763, 23.780221484615858, 29.82755230421127, 27.823764250533024, 35.6013214991773, 45.36078937551417, 83.68983820868206, 36.39357060004402, 49.88908418397498, 31.727500911057774, 72.90268981578696, 67.38170828743951, 26.048081873378344, 51.89300439456524, 36.97612434436467, 38.24876043579187, 36.01124793737015, 31.746309846416136, 21.831712707660028, 100.70348008471048, 25.77450500034043, 36.50679437727555, 30.400957614145693, 117.4394782172868, 29.57620432505724 ], "crps_clim": [ 43.05674508597644, 47.02174056492448, 28.84873411344585, 52.31210697339705, 337.83045973804184, 54.55256595155876, 38.94875701090369, 39.57782058741483, 27.74569141249191, 34.126369417367485, 27.450347808492733, 34.017006869578225, 52.72584373838084, 95.1322901374424, 31.016202641442625, 46.77726687336443, 28.68599867750331, 67.63450525795584, 70.45970873133518, 29.076021275933627, 49.86214141911897, 34.70899724260007, 55.60856424824002, 45.9400310845385, 29.402894877394107, 33.32071549456562, 163.04105609314394, 29.873009959301736, 48.200340322444724, 32.07710679517107, 177.18917611869378, 26.893576505878865 ], "rps": [ 0.43237421678540994, 0.34725191755753354, 0.3692765207275312, 0.30399563651194894, 0.13171657838118705, 0.3393116662298479, 0.30503344898345053, 0.5957072874610317, 0.3441455592096978, 0.31490912442637287, 0.36738559864678927, 0.42424495461017314, 0.46539545830577994, 0.4217315509295317, 0.45773740401094914, 0.48877159922448177, 0.3759833106271987, 0.5972260794448471, 0.45440226903257247, 0.2975255693614144, 0.4888331493578925, 0.504883342679652, 0.21688926806594988, 0.4259986591164806, 0.4156283938352574, 0.27907700422665394, 0.18179182972239266, 0.35025507094124997, 0.36466908437078116, 0.38935643298307776, 0.16891274905775358, 0.39569268370921135 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4903301532167852, 0.44204091246608007, 0.3821454984532625, 0.5431907333012903, 0.5629552549427677, 0.538931603827915, 0.47718465303177104, 0.4269517164665013, 0.3648511299187768, 0.3588689197908303, 0.356723031227705, 0.4013877968759663, 0.5457092532164318, 0.5530781005304259, 0.3883080341726342, 0.41667877142632664, 0.33834680801777955, 0.5610985777523381, 0.4668682110446354, 0.34014334800184304, 0.464044269131601, 0.43822125796975975, 0.5000883325693602, 0.5339534977340119, 0.3734059025504393, 0.40314128440280195, 0.5592508943098848, 0.414709381099934, 0.516605453040115, 0.4212120203974677, 0.5555451413875876, 0.33021111911934736 ], "bias": [ 69.58418019237652, 20.43587685539809, 41.07765379408055, 60.64021993644428, -293.3155445224941, 65.14188398990443, 45.86251961084354, -53.4587350650045, 11.399567880000765, -6.059584493024937, 9.515520875645771, -20.410006306005908, 85.01566619854118, -107.73847564460749, 63.26502045745241, -55.368553071096066, 35.47169157153463, 118.27094805492386, -71.04461709577065, 21.438599473249432, -51.02999657853142, -22.567082320081955, 36.95393331999103, 68.73410380077654, -14.2960256660137, 30.690586738675083, -125.71030826486871, 23.250075365520054, 69.98307456043433, 54.84079462423814, -144.82044070510682, -11.630929513876689 ], "mae": [ 71.20492685146148, 55.962354369934445, 45.242110531067645, 61.88362237794965, 293.3155445224941, 72.61110663010938, 49.7910781429151, 59.970930029703865, 33.435436990088824, 37.252792685445904, 38.83741819464589, 40.48612988507806, 85.01566619854118, 108.15937861063716, 65.34810786638326, 59.93112242947339, 58.10045114672153, 118.27094805492386, 82.92678922624184, 38.17125822976437, 57.7306853712898, 45.953070736942884, 55.761661785903215, 69.78107752329718, 31.71111570241379, 35.15985540270306, 128.25894582947373, 39.35397901449683, 70.69273441019804, 56.18939275460258, 150.2611843608517, 33.65997839246955 ], "mse": [ 6308.78142170174, 5345.812824910716, 2750.240989652657, 4551.400022389333, 97954.43944367135, 6280.360629808296, 3412.4220096713702, 5300.749321351401, 1713.6798177595635, 2487.4247762597674, 2123.692146818519, 2599.0429076275764, 8298.575776829965, 17470.378039837564, 6525.1075564053535, 7653.955015313804, 4554.577736358466, 17210.069413837613, 11422.995212963253, 2220.6214269882153, 5113.708535005135, 3034.980722869871, 4883.86918344634, 5741.521773088836, 1560.4040583922988, 1686.3409511013515, 19738.60946958157, 2136.0994709773627, 5793.496165303658, 4392.415961266413, 30242.939572185758, 1874.7440954696417 ], "var": [ 9344.342207345746, 20942.637457160872, 10387.31664092055, 9183.871413480367, 14051.670220041306, 8978.959711295342, 10206.937205049298, 9492.075667636578, 8537.896422537657, 11450.613109780079, 12238.858760849573, 12673.102915525618, 8078.331344072497, 11938.26836715039, 11423.523142752083, 7586.121041887636, 14256.8313209912, 8922.945213724972, 12035.47986793455, 11821.996055501704, 12991.12515417218, 10449.316353586673, 27891.05662687714, 7652.596401803883, 11011.482966237727, 9335.42658678129, 22079.847941330736, 9473.13235116974, 7933.478330699271, 10541.193843324032, 16485.022887377436, 8179.7213733431945 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 49.0693364012878, "crpss": 0.17923399509033144, "rps": 0.3755035443291907, "rpss": 0.1693651995963692, "mean_bias_mm": -1.4336994358266368, "mean_mae_mm": 70.32596419556948, "mean_rmse_mm": 97.20845135082854, "spread_error_ratio": 1.1174361187997224, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.6211363130003806, "pit_histogram": [ 0.08714, 0.08697, 0.09507, 0.10763, 0.10915, 0.10793, 0.10073, 0.10078, 0.12569, 0.0789 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.10383663209803674 } }, "distribution_full": { "ethiopia": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0005558640753593, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.009430145670669243 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9949988100632482, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.04262250155641151 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9685740578988097, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.056966603753362065 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 1.00413061316298, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.03282951268848218 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0362879318547176, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.06660565537785303 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": 0.0 } }, "ondj_domain": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9928309961869007, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.011213593384787588 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9653365745579621, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.04591763842530332 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9772430954195483, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.0560973797201414 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0014290654488642, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.035073279862717355 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.019663458006527, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.06739280196309423 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": 0.0 } } } }, "sdm": { "training": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 29.57168088798196, 33.4940051284013, 28.113598045049457, 25.745849265638142, 175.95040203063, 33.438646806915905, 34.22772619380195, 46.07726480576901, 19.59831870435374, 29.411333410425144, 26.1860345870776, 26.18935079883355, 32.72446219839294, 59.5963073514944, 38.16136859243982, 49.10305775077714, 29.738102426776287, 57.32405647619145, 40.918544935419334, 26.715199179919072, 37.847486913692144, 34.18868241599271, 31.27818546016953, 25.816149847004496 ], "crps_clim": [ 29.83323453860368, 38.88077881844172, 26.1795875687868, 36.08822373966346, 249.9992360568139, 38.426875463916396, 39.04498825040786, 38.65484959473932, 21.062619481737414, 26.341700917326186, 23.043072155361166, 23.761208131674348, 35.758076339617475, 65.51443181552213, 28.07427178189838, 41.19686340465451, 28.3419383709928, 45.95970122915301, 42.821914300357065, 27.103313627542445, 35.0043497136804, 30.34929072242817, 36.1179019010588, 32.50133398998652 ], "rps": [ 0.45316957986123585, 0.3780146076522952, 0.46895672464632304, 0.37605822456390287, 0.15917170498830394, 0.4410284998874929, 0.43530868360026875, 0.6106309881194438, 0.3685667280465277, 0.4496356586165038, 0.44194397323958573, 0.4221436453894302, 0.45602763222177495, 0.447281955400728, 0.6238209501556433, 0.6174165407372443, 0.41511842592005826, 0.6627225974715886, 0.4347396224661836, 0.3952573491695642, 0.4814377279263127, 0.5403743789677286, 0.39491708094596517, 0.3886329822529351 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.43952109738446665, 0.4701037173237654, 0.4169699152477682, 0.47870260421034994, 0.5456974480225605, 0.4718891921569669, 0.47528498795368085, 0.4682080375922366, 0.3831343617912619, 0.4088195337833923, 0.40159350714274034, 0.3947124470194672, 0.4905254609590217, 0.4972930221700924, 0.4454260522581055, 0.4580123165551393, 0.4122169895751251, 0.5190225120513517, 0.4587331615402525, 0.4177409087656852, 0.44718476038056587, 0.4632550515537808, 0.44214926963850176, 0.47013731210450704 ], "bias": [ 23.171651443311887, 29.10244624853086, 27.06935324859859, 39.34410126279713, -214.13425199874905, 4.383388862011801, -3.4987556438109833, -49.002342111534965, 8.117417234569558, 24.706605129110468, 22.333896922684144, -12.944263514298651, 56.467293906970994, -74.70175388571967, 61.17821452766384, -50.29076995594132, 10.107352948211481, 92.75355125271508, -10.507628579469694, 22.586473857550036, -35.52824792371686, -29.610527246463626, 26.719581125234605, 33.69532369716417 ], "mae": [ 47.34184324985774, 51.7389095490671, 43.166481831981244, 46.35682578084516, 214.31429812287894, 52.75661093055655, 52.32519483777466, 56.57157179594668, 28.738199176474705, 46.01291762916907, 39.31379782583521, 31.036189762713008, 57.628893821325676, 77.8510252559655, 63.25070711027503, 60.803134596486494, 42.92976615490747, 93.00925754588523, 57.31699556376762, 40.62357993485001, 43.91872417447155, 42.604630242096704, 44.89714284516741, 45.65901059387784 ], "mse": [ 3501.885898315413, 4573.800163403929, 3012.0874651782283, 3073.164084296772, 65355.69621672225, 4246.190017065391, 4605.801088283177, 4806.51829946687, 1277.6332872462726, 3358.5672767151814, 2545.4792206326, 1632.4577855223215, 4991.878346646005, 11341.650215225993, 6281.054079296939, 6676.9194312251275, 2948.8905816740967, 12546.387211061265, 6351.557495490245, 2804.1976816501838, 3352.830026793889, 2860.871497247686, 3334.1391763286038, 3116.887849639475 ], "var": [ 7220.7296474822815, 12391.560807052743, 6996.658413652334, 6305.151299727879, 6703.964045293562, 5729.70412755778, 7629.654737613346, 7116.483498364064, 5354.21885915289, 9449.38280561559, 9342.24860840975, 8194.370045908165, 5381.308052560452, 7604.697372128697, 7053.545820652428, 4636.75593186569, 10088.563327412438, 7478.30724160806, 8365.02474807755, 7109.874885241651, 8944.484983860766, 7848.049100739683, 14560.555980009742, 5060.5988080153575 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00023803501801351884, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00042937246861169943, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 40.4756589255478, "crpss": 0.0660000032833391, "rps": 0.45259901092696, "rpss": 0.0012832821574666475, "mean_bias_mm": 0.06325461697582806, "mean_mae_mm": 57.50690451384069, "mean_rmse_mm": 83.81441413303361, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0519419906573297, "zero_fraction": 2.780864527605076e-05, "correlation": 0.3081344748977754, "pit_histogram": [ 0.12656, 0.08456, 0.09042, 0.09475, 0.09951, 0.09601, 0.09252, 0.09583, 0.10301, 0.11682 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.09279128494121014 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 37.73894048352756, 42.499119343016694, 26.96045996424446, 30.236918523978385, 250.3964987540788, 37.00357695162699, 25.81574931345134, 51.55040286054828, 24.763697377005254, 30.36150465527698, 27.84704437719708, 36.208335104103895, 45.822827608445, 85.67666648723451, 36.490123732845035, 50.34516355160318, 32.36811887048264, 72.71492516425593, 70.19605181572477, 27.01580861838934, 53.59446470114196, 38.024727456307936, 38.75830423415143, 36.24247143128031 ], "crps_clim": [ 42.28827155959033, 47.03475528721915, 28.118112914314686, 51.435856466268575, 352.79501684228853, 53.54974195536778, 38.362106175221676, 39.349051348043986, 27.402303306971245, 33.04226475208313, 26.16461609134499, 33.51963055426904, 51.74936172381692, 99.15164309867102, 30.1279091186148, 46.27450144046246, 27.396128860915656, 66.68806658106446, 71.89082190601232, 28.449906713101416, 50.156317986314725, 34.37176519545435, 56.19481769512508, 45.209077740680264 ], "rps": [ 0.43569199250734447, 0.35800550065197845, 0.3769123415583916, 0.32003564763595194, 0.14661770112792805, 0.3357614279150855, 0.2990079961329616, 0.6080197263958744, 0.352763297953861, 0.32161566029109634, 0.3635201968196479, 0.4272924048956684, 0.48136588143429704, 0.41260347777855755, 0.4662318441274137, 0.4937232693792411, 0.38892272387801524, 0.5920261988584804, 0.48055108104640004, 0.31039858790832064, 0.5007737177454136, 0.5212579456824942, 0.22183835846191668, 0.43238671548064733 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4819055012071629, 0.444711644142145, 0.3912256783048537, 0.5314847003061296, 0.5463137996219283, 0.5246370496095673, 0.46799085581035055, 0.43018330198082794, 0.37903088404294777, 0.37602959074729786, 0.3657108710730794, 0.4071905831264576, 0.5346883545994874, 0.5378418884618463, 0.397580420764294, 0.42189702270560003, 0.35631035559982877, 0.5447213136522713, 0.4681166143725515, 0.3573140603557788, 0.4646548705590716, 0.44355045410047106, 0.4892057906870231, 0.5235515159121176 ], "bias": [ 67.27122956271536, 16.377611539685056, 38.667321110105625, 59.008055817766056, -305.2427108061774, 62.85919032701405, 43.45204974592317, -57.24492987710014, 8.700842137107903, -9.46075100979129, 6.083146700074957, -23.899996112108344, 83.47638710523827, -112.4781049202841, 60.46648363092569, -58.66439691708745, 31.963318139807107, 116.58413032001452, -76.69800530399397, 18.662121841456614, -55.499404773855744, -26.4721515098336, 31.482098149947173, 66.66263112487562 ], "mae": [ 69.10495366356886, 57.15700980788495, 43.43506328167134, 60.27051710859153, 305.2427108061774, 70.21586399382637, 47.827979691866325, 63.01717534630829, 33.56496008682816, 35.932505957811955, 37.31385273918945, 40.96307051745333, 83.47638710523827, 112.76385750473383, 63.27166522078614, 62.37932447496238, 55.74103116807262, 116.58413032001452, 86.80990854267831, 37.03530055071058, 61.048270647016636, 49.029047942977826, 52.6839901959156, 67.86386279001321 ], "mse": [ 6022.8342512043, 5529.34675532771, 2595.07404098962, 4342.794705146989, 105738.3489479426, 5929.716174789815, 3190.877754952485, 5739.237296573331, 1737.7743490257906, 2459.265952912238, 2001.120880635741, 2688.8186158303924, 8032.7240777323095, 18607.089819425844, 6376.302401236055, 7935.068662404708, 4282.555823763988, 17024.433536473887, 12298.949300130562, 2130.188468614415, 5643.640605998786, 3322.8369272032814, 4426.685366928937, 5410.93251085174 ], "var": [ 9245.20585022464, 21419.070086625867, 10412.785634072914, 8975.327725945153, 11187.352539525711, 9019.772283039189, 10324.966609128838, 9698.6674229108, 8604.947725959337, 11468.405575530242, 12549.727315959655, 12680.65329343563, 8082.595601001665, 11830.884996736622, 11450.900590729274, 7655.334510694337, 14403.656925899777, 9069.157930385765, 12323.681702343936, 11875.921801080958, 13035.219108591671, 10606.494810525355, 28768.67715929409, 7511.028090390654 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 50.359662557496584, "crpss": 0.12463778971115058, "rps": 0.40197182065279113, "rpss": 0.1137737295246698, "mean_bias_mm": -0.5809930823989534, "mean_mae_mm": 71.36385164434574, "mean_rmse_mm": 100.71962263839478, "spread_error_ratio": 1.076611783490418, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.4907684982913747, "pit_histogram": [ 0.08967, 0.08652, 0.10108, 0.11671, 0.11965, 0.10279, 0.096, 0.08123, 0.10015, 0.1062 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.09314429194390071 } }, "operational": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 25.42998838523035, 24.17196035953957, 91.20072054577807, 19.96656653815431, 30.881815392830482, 24.714167690769322, 83.93186101313773, 50.796117486895994 ], "crps_clim": [ 24.186278935163696, 25.3510236438784, 115.19291638908858, 23.883905041341485, 31.83506561734916, 24.11958582957673, 108.55164002965007, 36.322116319494704 ], "rps": [ 0.4026187079383206, 0.4430891979060845, 0.4505712115787116, 0.31917423246534105, 0.5008731032972562, 0.3987233482251107, 0.3963996536649511, 0.6917266530578506 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.41765960837363175, 0.4211483967453936, 0.5533032169639418, 0.44730768376472113, 0.4625683819363159, 0.41678104776399905, 0.5158924087479178, 0.42890010225976694 ], "bias": [ 1.8198585251329449, -0.8915918010443107, -116.47106102165343, 11.643978042060024, 11.60021762573377, 29.682899798802534, -92.52484805196866, -53.59697305840179 ], "mae": [ 33.374478239283356, 32.87891397549644, 117.61171685625006, 27.78913552033935, 47.91622994867538, 41.5354589553015, 108.24430706311335, 62.394500281871245 ], "mse": [ 1779.0847744002567, 1797.7935082594768, 18102.07144367557, 1344.164557661116, 3332.1256577091485, 2672.8607931882625, 19479.91687617953, 6640.5912638533155 ], "var": [ 6896.197281573483, 5946.621372372441, 12385.129986520726, 6403.249851008601, 4896.2794845774415, 8024.586640785964, 10806.734814555517, 5411.648766811365 ], "zero": [ 0.0002089870698979036, 0.00011668383235956907, 0.0, 0.0014127929463936873, 2.594895487068492e-05, 0.0003785621792179296, 0.00014263278723025398, 0.0005219674962568061 ] }, "crps": 43.88664967654198, "crpss": 0.09847238362849309, "rps": 0.4503970135167033, "rpss": 0.016482526413839294, "mean_bias_mm": -26.092189992667365, "mean_mae_mm": 58.968092605041335, "mean_rmse_mm": 83.02756234748696, "spread_error_ratio": 1.04973321425583, "zero_fraction": 0.0003509469082783543, "correlation": 0.41291473885318164, "pit_histogram": [ 0.03888, 0.04761, 0.06986, 0.09372, 0.1135, 0.10167, 0.08927, 0.1009, 0.13523, 0.20937 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.3213242537215556 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 30.729822040078105, 21.461079828375098, 99.45979257414918, 25.6295186836132, 35.047742618843216, 29.67104700686443, 116.29905291252398, 29.388912442751575 ], "crps_clim": [ 27.513828107781922, 30.99293899368493, 161.45686691829505, 27.920571148564072, 44.378057761090616, 29.766973014786096, 175.6320250314755, 25.22282617443876 ], "rps": [ 0.4072479250928086, 0.29090525903881465, 0.19187684365640978, 0.3614718784265165, 0.38538748082039986, 0.4027061943663623, 0.18175507970589186, 0.4146241106535658 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.37168677457254995, 0.40830736189644173, 0.5514955486398806, 0.4122454653654102, 0.5073582603125171, 0.4229682694777741, 0.5480141318493015, 0.3433109764761434 ], "bias": [ -17.294892016222477, 27.313353408778195, -125.45207375821235, 19.327410274250834, 65.34984399506091, 50.026779493670475, -144.1404181035157, -14.146178390561966 ], "mae": [ 32.732194943369876, 33.010680413401126, 128.33106920019154, 35.91578508925983, 66.17228710492377, 52.166084758018485, 149.86608470774135, 34.58292943593906 ], "mse": [ 1630.6146148718256, 1531.537706491386, 19860.0992251766, 1821.9053868273559, 5099.6240349123655, 3938.0042054925543, 30027.310300585585, 1978.804922568089 ], "var": [ 10415.229849046576, 8866.031027374385, 22218.66019469565, 9303.959855287008, 7661.755604928461, 10119.444846759003, 17454.249590632095, 7793.686868675434 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 48.460871013399846, "crpss": 0.25856040060386065, "rps": 0.32949684647009614, "rpss": 0.26067635068474526, "mean_bias_mm": -17.37702188709401, "mean_mae_mm": 66.59713945660563, "mean_rmse_mm": 90.75234184094491, "spread_error_ratio": 1.193369703092212, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.8747599234564053, "pit_histogram": [ 0.0257, 0.07054, 0.10013, 0.12239, 0.1287, 0.11796, 0.09672, 0.10302, 0.11425, 0.12061 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.21408664115864762 } }, "full": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 28.686992669772117, 35.29713911817768, 30.08277590584542, 27.320027090908937, 161.91923737637512, 30.97889601571551, 32.318770474308806, 42.92103538143653, 19.50367087551478, 31.84190951500036, 29.146236257408596, 25.577460102056595, 35.543844866429104, 54.89031120931279, 42.66138742490582, 48.262496340591674, 29.92256753923065, 61.46592379321954, 42.12464807921758, 27.728475247954947, 35.634012990411556, 30.70902172902971, 32.20934513167416, 26.416516393821148, 26.121863268814625, 22.868203700675735, 89.0360104975335, 20.614049555620443, 30.194181841232087, 25.55303855293153, 81.54927602257791, 48.46967969143345 ], "crps_clim": [ 30.220473451764587, 39.917418564936064, 27.757568172072368, 37.802333372958124, 238.75051318915055, 37.61181929878509, 37.616082531632294, 37.23600638646016, 21.306686770765648, 28.4780000830409, 25.20476923730856, 24.600584384519205, 37.81772054414582, 61.83148106658277, 29.811614275645827, 41.56571447524313, 29.657529779748423, 47.67275462965923, 43.64083140619902, 27.6391470098042, 34.1009877354789, 28.817911129816427, 35.16768869621822, 33.87686011313925, 25.87047943593951, 26.437105491714817, 114.62794696826606, 26.4205712229385, 33.14461289262585, 24.563582570388807, 107.27766982133843, 35.50441102323164 ], "rps": [ 0.43807096643747456, 0.39332390178240356, 0.49093848127173884, 0.39009320214377197, 0.14327216002505264, 0.3984074880120282, 0.4197792341562757, 0.5712047561672693, 0.3691041884747164, 0.4770303811497025, 0.46499579584672673, 0.4086262881918179, 0.4841163048869726, 0.4114570976683782, 0.6783827891497758, 0.6002646292756142, 0.4041429708742428, 0.7091860721353535, 0.44466093039215177, 0.42997324593276887, 0.4494327820005054, 0.4942353667276936, 0.3966420765594974, 0.3905756155698334, 0.3945768389445387, 0.39619091823941, 0.4241507168837976, 0.31576671407095536, 0.46251629716872816, 0.40278243762577537, 0.3825184854456495, 0.6582103933862928 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.42752784364987473, 0.47525412925412475, 0.4178646042147745, 0.4860452399955733, 0.5615292811104182, 0.4629144820543785, 0.4720919884684642, 0.46355275516950334, 0.3602950493837294, 0.41093548411809694, 0.39925120731108465, 0.3862724441100123, 0.4981591164438388, 0.48945929833950264, 0.4479384312130977, 0.4604687964566817, 0.402555507760245, 0.5325649512878922, 0.46103987989217676, 0.4197441009203777, 0.4304978343784619, 0.45092626124868035, 0.4260850230367853, 0.4774252618219362, 0.4145131464744774, 0.4091714328578628, 0.5607984489124369, 0.46414258203020875, 0.45688333757744265, 0.4028824114723692, 0.5188382677855484, 0.41855246264432233 ], "bias": [ 28.752537401436282, 36.07231969074899, 33.822174475963365, 45.041527514188125, -201.2100383909254, 10.401995750183339, 2.9579325436393984, -42.3199384479265, 14.732409829192736, 31.753639280805988, 29.210775533374772, -6.922717329495008, 62.343683244359596, -66.94614179085943, 68.16142688883096, -43.72669955160527, 16.417377639269173, 99.31225407697077, -3.817113292403081, 29.656372803149484, -28.57554206991804, -23.00325423522894, 35.30886856022268, 38.929463882457064, 7.815805709863623, 4.598779526882546, -113.57900014088095, 17.23646619317533, 17.741029870490355, 37.909068890071325, -88.56704353499305, -49.81337973728434 ], "mae": [ 47.35152676590106, 53.504390957454646, 47.485531297036175, 50.02256013444049, 201.53337674218082, 50.74977975319091, 51.55247811679524, 52.84486880029779, 29.325779497405343, 51.27581671474741, 44.47296310249274, 30.994946493603962, 62.969775249571185, 71.45621186577577, 69.3533413367861, 59.88309330887766, 45.01641810723962, 99.31441561548213, 59.94284341601257, 43.35748651126938, 40.090252497944505, 36.96564992547341, 47.73040884620574, 47.63406924893315, 33.17730325264032, 32.0041106898403, 114.62251833906258, 30.64075256845798, 48.35440015816303, 44.89041259363841, 105.55093345007694, 59.42518771126773 ], "mse": [ 3563.1216198124107, 4807.7323246305505, 3538.318817635165, 3545.130186822345, 59718.961651237136, 4008.351583023379, 4343.830717383493, 4272.9566631261605, 1312.7751161578672, 4066.4972842237844, 3296.543288987083, 1623.1739574348576, 5795.124571630394, 10058.507048869853, 7334.255111217319, 6441.722666829184, 3156.8268021385206, 13755.59179153768, 6594.035623945683, 2984.204383079968, 2873.5956994958487, 2259.6501355958458, 3675.68966067073, 3435.549214607187, 1795.6965095898702, 1645.1561716791525, 17153.411840325432, 1509.5778517355775, 3446.569204488477, 2925.796352121658, 18637.784576027672, 5999.660301896352 ], "var": [ 7227.540147029034, 12384.327338312072, 6980.566729305278, 6433.798653905334, 8429.516724685656, 5818.414701884308, 7804.244830321459, 7070.526329210819, 5421.043089804426, 9499.039280959478, 9332.353007062202, 8311.095548476782, 5392.05153961787, 7810.5279070339375, 7107.882415026586, 4629.1280481601825, 10058.53238375541, 7493.876186155579, 8407.232833738895, 7119.2005625212605, 8968.213078579329, 7770.196342598145, 14260.156195803254, 5160.527982385297, 7177.330780784262, 6152.3743601705655, 12135.166223763066, 6608.586955467089, 4958.341756663528, 8353.7132241779, 10248.739582454782, 5579.189352221178 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00023803501801351884, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00042937246861169943, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002089870698979036, 0.00011668383235956907, 0.0, 0.0014127929463936873, 2.594895487068492e-05, 0.0003785621792179296, 0.00014263278723025398, 0.0005219674962568061 ] }, "crps": 40.86153139559808, "crpss": 0.08686055290126182, "rps": 0.44670717270615357, "rpss": 0.011858799089365935, "mean_bias_mm": -0.009529975507629018, "mean_mae_mm": 58.23417509588329, "mean_rmse_mm": 82.83564275267408, "spread_error_ratio": 1.0672535101631893, "zero_fraction": 0.00010859321102662666, "correlation": 0.32615736801777084, "pit_histogram": [ 0.12851, 0.08048, 0.08649, 0.09503, 0.09968, 0.09729, 0.09431, 0.09862, 0.1116, 0.108 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.09622455649800601 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 38.10925157248497, 42.64052163032203, 26.882323221383434, 30.33001800505592, 235.17627427375766, 37.492130545039586, 25.843732635326113, 50.471386806349, 24.21717800785556, 30.343146252998718, 28.160318964454078, 36.03854157405886, 46.5450826056673, 82.05924326824261, 37.14543255098152, 49.413454696692824, 31.89784593914584, 73.5733401744052, 68.64186463464176, 26.660639809540363, 52.328810798143536, 37.20820368749745, 38.90170997671637, 36.41964341975765, 31.896563174166147, 21.951234010627903, 100.62848262898406, 26.46916050822396, 37.23259730698121, 30.921764728869103, 116.71614330387798, 29.708284902399264 ], "crps_clim": [ 43.05674508597644, 47.02174056492448, 28.84873411344585, 52.31210697339705, 337.83045973804184, 54.55256595155876, 38.94875701090369, 39.57782058741483, 27.74569141249191, 34.126369417367485, 27.450347808492733, 34.017006869578225, 52.72584373838084, 95.1322901374424, 31.016202641442625, 46.77726687336443, 28.68599867750331, 67.63450525795584, 70.45970873133518, 29.076021275933627, 49.86214141911897, 34.70899724260007, 55.60856424824002, 45.9400310845385, 29.402894877394107, 33.32071549456562, 163.04105609314394, 29.873009959301736, 48.200340322444724, 32.07710679517107, 177.18917611869378, 26.893576505878865 ], "rps": [ 0.4518267910985072, 0.35440260879822527, 0.38017201167001685, 0.323643099681642, 0.13830855052956065, 0.3475178773218432, 0.3062832034870352, 0.599111291314382, 0.3478521783475663, 0.32173848601176475, 0.3682803712843074, 0.42881109072606954, 0.48954159621923293, 0.4202406750858543, 0.46546048353483777, 0.4812619572864253, 0.3700829632290827, 0.6072360755207549, 0.4726187890671881, 0.2992794175858835, 0.4945257525591689, 0.5083961332441078, 0.2168508302611191, 0.4396142816652349, 0.4164758944534055, 0.2798878511768824, 0.1767481543831758, 0.3603934407139776, 0.3868298382276115, 0.39654583187194076, 0.16446419868148146, 0.39416786527066455 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4903301532167852, 0.44204091246608007, 0.3821454984532625, 0.5431907333012903, 0.5629552549427677, 0.538931603827915, 0.47718465303177104, 0.4269517164665013, 0.3648511299187768, 0.3588689197908303, 0.356723031227705, 0.4013877968759663, 0.5457092532164318, 0.5530781005304259, 0.3883080341726342, 0.41667877142632664, 0.33834680801777955, 0.5610985777523381, 0.4668682110446354, 0.34014334800184304, 0.464044269131601, 0.43822125796975975, 0.5000883325693602, 0.5339534977340119, 0.3734059025504393, 0.40314128440280195, 0.5592508943098848, 0.414709381099934, 0.516605453040115, 0.4212120203974677, 0.5555451413875876, 0.33021111911934736 ], "bias": [ 70.43080729406523, 21.346581929877985, 42.03226300675194, 61.6562067445745, -293.67648337175564, 65.58671130309452, 46.08093050696084, -53.628066461209166, 12.107237370888292, -4.984869981160783, 9.5910580372298, -19.702569193087367, 86.32743307160342, -106.63216034698846, 63.939803303298234, -54.51076513213703, 36.11082875487347, 119.00000886269525, -72.05800509080534, 22.841735028229508, -51.09236401844939, -22.652683625250198, 37.48788837899606, 69.47713934965876, -14.00438493423906, 31.426474282693228, -124.81718528672913, 23.21287460506946, 70.64540754053628, 55.1852306838743, -144.2511595926652, -11.338751059779682 ], "mae": [ 72.02834018562123, 55.910814806311365, 46.01858183850151, 62.8843365991519, 293.67648337175564, 73.15062513891534, 49.978363491792244, 60.190538496859986, 33.40541437664725, 37.41062232422037, 38.80282312896077, 40.659447220401255, 86.32743307160342, 107.12871673479098, 66.07793399360338, 59.307450933241235, 57.76843536151212, 119.00000886269525, 83.56223973975165, 38.83617784686031, 57.7622682973345, 45.87530984600735, 55.90066382025455, 70.4749863265843, 31.51128771158647, 35.699852008767266, 127.43677960996685, 39.57108978370865, 71.33252357526611, 56.50103296440516, 149.66243325502057, 33.7240738790488 ], "mse": [ 6448.433435111026, 5353.375976853873, 2820.7785775293733, 4696.535713484426, 98201.05792549711, 6363.371559207291, 3402.072283836559, 5321.667841660698, 1717.3737854542678, 2477.598624792702, 2120.514178282751, 2612.280503256469, 8546.301045796776, 17191.687651513374, 6719.035325880945, 7606.1759461952715, 4501.458496027299, 17429.445539121483, 11598.887796539802, 2298.5631274910265, 5118.295725379465, 3023.9922315012814, 4872.607146546902, 5851.00508227106, 1550.2368214774858, 1734.455439608447, 19494.714097007174, 2160.119810639135, 5890.21069564732, 4436.380154671945, 30040.39396578223, 1882.254975448059 ], "var": [ 9396.53998342917, 21336.979981448152, 10341.059732540638, 9260.257988045298, 14346.079938194911, 9150.204046243942, 10431.172182057975, 9755.624593144486, 8828.05403808036, 11531.298246678418, 12663.301972357265, 12871.351959038158, 8164.782774495999, 12265.51584601605, 11665.173173393807, 7632.103555364964, 14528.845858231063, 9051.940381689432, 12523.5040212512, 11872.62200892504, 13040.180043576442, 10574.479244913864, 28426.036133738486, 7731.267216361639, 11048.299980296237, 9187.172688770157, 22054.271359938284, 9614.15887273645, 7855.159843836634, 10529.081712046318, 16424.85679571874, 8128.308740403262 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 49.438260175457756, "crpss": 0.1730631333169954, "rps": 0.3815177996971547, "rpss": 0.1560613310108686, "mean_bias_mm": -0.9019633762276662, "mean_mae_mm": 70.54928401878587, "mean_rmse_mm": 97.38475263733426, "spread_error_ratio": 1.1222671519746485, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.6170015063084702, "pit_histogram": [ 0.08549, 0.08642, 0.09607, 0.11011, 0.11212, 0.10759, 0.10196, 0.09895, 0.12223, 0.07905 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.10803176024613793 } }, "distribution_full": { "ethiopia": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0010156937181516, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.007445858026105472 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9992809386802056, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.03786682319424775 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9617857642305924, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.0594255501412818 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0048332837913325, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.03378476751191189 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0382090890991584, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.06744585043974143 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": 0.00010859321102662667 } }, "ondj_domain": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9954696569653713, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.008129309214906183 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9720043043840503, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.04125597800170952 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9657523413902158, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.06394801979053666 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 1.005186213666389, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.03721718397061077 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0229936359556684, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.06924199863117128 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": 0.0 } } } }, "cdft": { "training": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 29.775672107411236, 32.78678923864909, 27.94854952637637, 25.162803341047802, 178.14619958799636, 33.71263860816509, 34.49590636718702, 46.011804159876654, 19.32744078025671, 28.51222957228178, 26.066511780767655, 26.18991576150226, 32.82567750275872, 61.204535527525174, 38.62360044370786, 49.411689678550644, 29.30526948919373, 58.62414443810556, 40.477498608379065, 26.217682027656107, 37.020484683532466, 33.4201135781865, 30.38220879253688, 26.68322692595372 ], "crps_clim": [ 29.83323453860368, 38.88077881844172, 26.1795875687868, 36.08822373966346, 249.9992360568139, 38.426875463916396, 39.04498825040786, 38.65484959473932, 21.062619481737414, 26.341700917326186, 23.043072155361166, 23.761208131674348, 35.758076339617475, 65.51443181552213, 28.07427178189838, 41.19686340465451, 28.3419383709928, 45.95970122915301, 42.821914300357065, 27.103313627542445, 35.0043497136804, 30.34929072242817, 36.1179019010588, 32.50133398998652 ], "rps": [ 0.4532851100498459, 0.3689243084300925, 0.4707160009700588, 0.3642073950754287, 0.14642528463694715, 0.4379254660167455, 0.43943116428007056, 0.6072727113858515, 0.36646435048783116, 0.43931967136812866, 0.44064535458246706, 0.427069925016326, 0.4426645923317086, 0.44169352148898844, 0.6217427106739045, 0.6030647841136604, 0.4137317662790869, 0.6795066143771031, 0.417135387692511, 0.3956678259592031, 0.4723467945048312, 0.5263723193397244, 0.3858905154372706, 0.39263539078935217 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.43952109738446665, 0.4701037173237654, 0.4169699152477682, 0.47870260421034994, 0.5456974480225605, 0.4718891921569669, 0.47528498795368085, 0.4682080375922366, 0.3831343617912619, 0.4088195337833923, 0.40159350714274034, 0.3947124470194672, 0.4905254609590217, 0.4972930221700924, 0.4454260522581055, 0.4580123165551393, 0.4122169895751251, 0.5190225120513517, 0.4587331615402525, 0.4177409087656852, 0.44718476038056587, 0.4632550515537808, 0.44214926963850176, 0.47013731210450704 ], "bias": [ 19.197673140850057, 23.720561692425818, 22.94681182106192, 33.79613066074238, -213.92684446519326, 0.13369746710904518, -8.427088018205199, -52.65867173785238, 4.426113396339377, 20.130104894959114, 19.273266764225, -18.141377952721783, 52.71313490364233, -79.4315300304934, 58.30182145602556, -53.44265530696086, 5.820646099171505, 89.4853892627922, -12.13621453419753, 18.13808302772521, -39.59078441854381, -32.37919684803087, 20.30134520431422, 30.532690047503795 ], "mae": [ 44.85778907403273, 50.813373241257054, 41.06351332896862, 41.6003756316639, 214.06641632423063, 50.94562376785901, 50.86477422768258, 59.03813840313103, 27.965652256747276, 44.684557851305236, 38.99961133005517, 32.49034002479669, 53.9205970335316, 82.26611382204806, 60.64835888719612, 63.32972199609835, 42.282290985944655, 89.73902680951907, 57.15364114336341, 38.72861082686461, 46.45808394586465, 44.33879173526999, 42.69968803910309, 43.32457119218434 ], "mse": [ 3130.6147903095193, 4382.0142001378645, 2856.3219356745317, 2496.8669096764174, 65026.34229492461, 3978.1422146532236, 4501.148032980215, 5187.687475163202, 1241.5528685980294, 3245.5265515516617, 2565.2385017804413, 1830.5012926028035, 4450.368105481493, 12458.613272505774, 5849.073274354043, 7099.979258296404, 2910.242430375029, 11704.360075790122, 6384.2829308771325, 2640.2665526134683, 3702.330182605262, 3066.01385819812, 3095.8807494183256, 2777.4820699801703 ], "var": [ 4581.627573905153, 7590.9457926806535, 4493.026099868868, 4203.65750064196, 5536.515552040288, 3597.7587160719613, 5088.580444150393, 4324.884609303738, 3152.328506410738, 6014.637223571911, 6036.6978373831735, 5311.074632513888, 3379.5028765168104, 4370.463285230922, 4082.760736215641, 2676.2177436314705, 5722.4062165448995, 4824.440744070699, 4937.5209604884, 4224.428569318192, 5513.4483252508135, 4776.1735351421985, 8042.516081613964, 3021.1732752947496 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 40.513858021983516, "crpss": 0.06511853632535414, "rps": 0.4480891235536307, "rpss": 0.01123491662106424, "mean_bias_mm": -3.800703894721316, "mean_mae_mm": 56.761652578279914, "mean_rmse_mm": 83.31187636139376, "spread_error_ratio": 0.8326906627788708, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.32426747719050075, "pit_histogram": [ 0.13914, 0.07643, 0.0897, 0.09748, 0.0943, 0.0943, 0.09024, 0.09746, 0.10025, 0.1207 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.1201699751233477 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 38.10277889860514, 40.8454265273053, 26.613655620154976, 28.923641449780177, 255.74346022841908, 37.49883583220866, 25.271062257604118, 51.270274701016056, 24.37953815640724, 28.493766954797117, 27.204087081494972, 35.968266122702346, 46.17392367977695, 88.9185872037028, 36.90067315969829, 50.54935817424831, 31.119593120433052, 75.73427702068807, 68.74971016161949, 26.069322675199924, 52.20899519261614, 36.68224000181906, 37.8431412122725, 38.21059058572728 ], "crps_clim": [ 42.28827155959033, 47.03475528721915, 28.118112914314686, 51.435856466268575, 352.79501684228853, 53.54974195536778, 38.362106175221676, 39.349051348043986, 27.402303306971245, 33.04226475208313, 26.16461609134499, 33.51963055426904, 51.74936172381692, 99.15164309867102, 30.1279091186148, 46.27450144046246, 27.396128860915656, 66.68806658106446, 71.89082190601232, 28.449906713101416, 50.156317986314725, 34.37176519545435, 56.19481769512508, 45.209077740680264 ], "rps": [ 0.43569322020497725, 0.3315769640075684, 0.37528219278679775, 0.2962363590473564, 0.1167529059713831, 0.33247153847795247, 0.2936365358463452, 0.609408457760856, 0.34709019743792496, 0.31047533061719385, 0.3627555526796271, 0.43678328525797255, 0.45937300028887984, 0.40251751870613944, 0.47645181384308866, 0.4988112071578296, 0.38130781138539116, 0.6128324370036201, 0.43433762332120546, 0.30799007286966823, 0.4881868618054974, 0.4947403971879265, 0.22062380449798882, 0.4389616584539144 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4819055012071629, 0.444711644142145, 0.3912256783048537, 0.5314847003061296, 0.5463137996219283, 0.5246370496095673, 0.46799085581035055, 0.43018330198082794, 0.37903088404294777, 0.37602959074729786, 0.3657108710730794, 0.4071905831264576, 0.5346883545994874, 0.5378418884618463, 0.397580420764294, 0.42189702270560003, 0.35631035559982877, 0.5447213136522713, 0.4681166143725515, 0.3573140603557788, 0.4646548705590716, 0.44355045410047106, 0.4892057906870231, 0.5235515159121176 ], "bias": [ 60.9020258987578, 7.731712562987954, 31.669218677495234, 49.98234328070233, -303.5311271320353, 56.28933610413696, 37.05414963196908, -62.305004012268085, 3.1680552815964216, -15.051715573947613, 0.8226517303749067, -33.06314078031834, 77.31139122003587, -119.35575504613855, 55.78696867990882, -64.11891964266526, 26.23447174846999, 111.92442541172454, -78.61178355372334, 11.62230778028558, -61.56244539090327, -30.369280966341933, 20.083679360604542, 61.8805162847423 ], "mae": [ 63.33283592366184, 58.383393409553406, 38.1687263543546, 51.4335923435934, 303.5311271320353, 63.9327687190945, 43.0110682941673, 66.2597312571844, 33.071174971038836, 36.218571568408734, 37.01675693236305, 44.71334701572897, 77.31936508548053, 119.37300307427284, 59.398303353301095, 66.35296102283704, 52.63639576817671, 111.92442541172454, 87.92146438422947, 35.19288533747316, 65.18116671816145, 51.39728991464752, 48.90842813117538, 63.34577765640772 ], "mse": [ 5124.883535610069, 5641.496302095564, 2111.170555433658, 3242.6594776076, 104704.70722041288, 4990.126223932283, 2723.248035059537, 6337.026287629631, 1714.5533701521956, 2624.1148717903343, 2056.2055297944776, 3180.7307441508533, 6989.861895561516, 20368.150624109825, 5794.674767764265, 8470.951380901137, 3918.6303400326833, 15872.616921365558, 12616.872319574524, 1976.4643581928906, 6243.612259404583, 3612.391526996248, 4028.8324635612544, 4723.744887657793 ], "var": [ 5199.956113074289, 12422.720045095915, 6418.339305996523, 5620.228576877867, 8194.696628197487, 5265.615909813057, 6370.962939513978, 5435.664906223752, 4613.137677303847, 6262.402562639044, 7015.3878333304365, 7419.689489814634, 4728.163371852788, 6190.857326929257, 6152.550066646199, 4147.576058820889, 7285.188485774288, 5053.026464655692, 6322.916618084025, 6605.194119903084, 7518.659122374517, 5891.517031719627, 15232.865357078661, 3997.742528592634 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 50.39480025076238, "crpss": 0.12402701896171442, "rps": 0.3943456977757127, "rpss": 0.13058702361221108, "mean_bias_mm": -6.47941326852289, "mean_mae_mm": 69.91768999079466, "mean_rmse_mm": 99.80558724732285, "spread_error_ratio": 0.816462191035739, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.5265342509222743, "pit_histogram": [ 0.13746, 0.0552, 0.09351, 0.11852, 0.10937, 0.1014, 0.09026, 0.08302, 0.09572, 0.11554 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.1645665376697642 } }, "operational": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 25.14471871849784, 24.364063334665776, 91.71906613354356, 19.325303980923582, 30.503504502810287, 24.30054542062705, 84.40423987608459, 50.89446876694527 ], "crps_clim": [ 24.186278935163696, 25.3510236438784, 115.19291638908858, 23.883905041341485, 31.83506561734916, 24.11958582957673, 108.55164002965007, 36.322116319494704 ], "rps": [ 0.39750926339098486, 0.44359022550399796, 0.4500999153024107, 0.30927384149709297, 0.49569507239137467, 0.3976211001643294, 0.36849559851622427, 0.694940173389643 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.41765960837363175, 0.4211483967453936, 0.5533032169639418, 0.44730768376472113, 0.4625683819363159, 0.41678104776399905, 0.5158924087479178, 0.42890010225976694 ], "bias": [ -1.4106624332265962, -4.2819696831108764, -120.7146941766678, 8.90859494118209, 8.444455452472965, 25.96825767764031, -96.07829964212446, -56.50783000580195 ], "mae": [ 33.98327993618169, 31.190586557314983, 121.83076457418366, 25.828557935483474, 45.74460880356366, 38.8291417258018, 110.86017261625997, 63.46927450174824 ], "mse": [ 1784.5028842912513, 1668.9394423867561, 19431.157282840202, 1201.7896951295772, 3045.694497142314, 2351.322675216688, 20443.404885161166, 6827.265865300808 ], "var": [ 4926.8476094528005, 4544.909272910587, 8571.277885273063, 4463.746087674867, 3400.374476486715, 5865.193214543185, 6996.826388563634, 3941.6950783859284 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 43.83198884176224, "crpss": 0.09959523653367153, "rps": 0.44465314876950723, "rpss": 0.029025219138806513, "mean_bias_mm": -29.45901848370454, "mean_mae_mm": 58.96704833131718, "mean_rmse_mm": 84.22742815397841, "spread_error_ratio": 0.8675023812983218, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.4099426007449649, "pit_histogram": [ 0.04303, 0.04455, 0.06832, 0.09608, 0.10678, 0.10329, 0.09191, 0.09928, 0.13241, 0.21435 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.3136551853096998 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 30.474564255546962, 21.89620062213335, 99.29503302628969, 24.311633388821246, 34.00608022795903, 28.717311625441603, 118.63306302552704, 28.99615160143424 ], "crps_clim": [ 27.513828107781922, 30.99293899368493, 161.45686691829505, 27.920571148564072, 44.378057761090616, 29.766973014786096, 175.6320250314755, 25.22282617443876 ], "rps": [ 0.40381889811381977, 0.2879886943997537, 0.18242817541508652, 0.34516219311601587, 0.37294045855650504, 0.4010273908157939, 0.16724438388918283, 0.41702592121468285 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.37168677457254995, 0.40830736189644173, 0.5514955486398806, 0.4122454653654102, 0.5073582603125171, 0.4229682694777741, 0.5480141318493015, 0.3433109764761434 ], "bias": [ -23.07729389360511, 21.392594407103818, -131.723462644352, 15.212451590650705, 59.69909336300551, 44.58271321380375, -149.88400770855736, -19.219322327581754 ], "mae": [ 35.897114646022814, 29.004419289394555, 134.53971034908676, 32.77051552360475, 60.5410293038474, 47.5246020703942, 155.38345486030516, 35.41177516945257 ], "mse": [ 1868.5560368534561, 1240.2250538754872, 21776.72380582765, 1569.5647505601505, 4355.452525417474, 3379.4244811910157, 31968.02185762072, 2082.6834599018216 ], "var": [ 7111.323422198661, 6610.690671213378, 14666.848084267976, 5884.816576561898, 5128.435131785652, 6809.810586428127, 10375.619783296052, 5214.7409178708385 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 48.29125472164415, "crpss": 0.26115548882205686, "rps": 0.3222045144401051, "rpss": 0.27703885486707525, "mean_bias_mm": -22.877154249941555, "mean_mae_mm": 66.38407765151354, "mean_rmse_mm": 92.35844030951353, "spread_error_ratio": 0.9516575186196256, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.8740798964391189, "pit_histogram": [ 0.03599, 0.06189, 0.09795, 0.12725, 0.12045, 0.11408, 0.1012, 0.10219, 0.10348, 0.13551 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.2083473791800943 } }, "full": { "ethiopia": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 28.966136915362828, 34.29767998204601, 30.149154632405676, 26.470953715044384, 166.21419616351, 31.18662500549128, 32.19156315219415, 42.80710971917981, 19.113526198237025, 31.00412591218386, 28.912798735428808, 25.307540500778025, 35.58256825654169, 56.52576634209947, 42.46642745787796, 48.34519813027601, 29.558842097780047, 62.74658570599021, 41.48711822849688, 27.20872541589718, 34.51927705023834, 29.614656501336253, 31.142149627450376, 27.580600127881127, 25.85862298815987, 23.000736744974482, 89.12306326355733, 19.856494087267556, 29.7690780067768, 25.144431638957826, 82.10301731014226, 48.40634769478703 ], "crps_clim": [ 30.220473451764587, 39.917418564936064, 27.757568172072368, 37.802333372958124, 238.75051318915055, 37.61181929878509, 37.616082531632294, 37.23600638646016, 21.306686770765648, 28.4780000830409, 25.20476923730856, 24.600584384519205, 37.81772054414582, 61.83148106658277, 29.811614275645827, 41.56571447524313, 29.657529779748423, 47.67275462965923, 43.64083140619902, 27.6391470098042, 34.1009877354789, 28.817911129816427, 35.16768869621822, 33.87686011313925, 25.87047943593951, 26.437105491714817, 114.62794696826606, 26.4205712229385, 33.14461289262585, 24.563582570388807, 107.27766982133843, 35.50441102323164 ], "rps": [ 0.4398561009020239, 0.38308255275832837, 0.49118962824510687, 0.37187306798766295, 0.1305911810409268, 0.3979000129401523, 0.4205869654492753, 0.5680486690846338, 0.36219953063132687, 0.46658043876269056, 0.4648379120959194, 0.4133744988995486, 0.4715504529111408, 0.40440589842504593, 0.664097108446445, 0.5864147924117119, 0.4061282180047092, 0.7260642591608242, 0.424811844664581, 0.4280785203228376, 0.43677628156845333, 0.4724324155123196, 0.3824890355554906, 0.40397106288932166, 0.3966168280524628, 0.3981144999735637, 0.4205297856260659, 0.3069234023895367, 0.45644542090415724, 0.4030248397625317, 0.35794390170418555, 0.6570838285166408 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.42752784364987473, 0.47525412925412475, 0.4178646042147745, 0.4860452399955733, 0.5615292811104182, 0.4629144820543785, 0.4720919884684642, 0.46355275516950334, 0.3602950493837294, 0.41093548411809694, 0.39925120731108465, 0.3862724441100123, 0.4981591164438388, 0.48945929833950264, 0.4479384312130977, 0.4604687964566817, 0.402555507760245, 0.5325649512878922, 0.46103987989217676, 0.4197441009203777, 0.4304978343784619, 0.45092626124868035, 0.4260850230367853, 0.4774252618219362, 0.4145131464744774, 0.4091714328578628, 0.5607984489124369, 0.46414258203020875, 0.45688333757744265, 0.4028824114723692, 0.5188382677855484, 0.41855246264432233 ], "bias": [ 24.717362526533314, 30.660933307922367, 29.673500739568507, 39.41933314418979, -202.77750668326436, 6.33123005161401, -1.698479215371083, -45.85243877761022, 10.90957705254899, 27.59439328148741, 26.17312699126315, -12.262976167208922, 58.22361412073459, -71.91421334618664, 64.84513870487788, -46.906596585394965, 12.410137952801078, 96.06793690360017, -5.031269394638695, 25.19211748658301, -32.22607971203341, -25.466094828933844, 28.529496582915645, 35.90764542388205, 4.56106917530681, 1.4326710271018943, -117.60438142248466, 14.629609017752713, 14.560939116916394, 34.645026991000854, -92.10758561134247, -52.6212654180934 ], "mae": [ 44.365509503185336, 52.98567783755473, 45.23446922930922, 44.999829614035406, 203.05075170666885, 48.58803412695066, 49.08144343557708, 54.876297133392626, 28.091166484952055, 49.860554982011756, 43.60023154383865, 31.74985877901851, 58.925764408973436, 76.00195728464644, 66.3435989268616, 62.25287204345672, 43.994702018009335, 96.07299986566626, 59.63087828740011, 41.28419519122909, 42.27605824369384, 38.489181255222775, 44.8633336038251, 45.25805998296561, 33.91491054377815, 30.248428600930918, 118.64411062073466, 28.61550582585102, 45.99899474029965, 42.249311232570214, 108.08211000984056, 60.172356940930065 ], "mse": [ 3115.5218873929007, 4661.975298380568, 3369.602873132128, 2900.095564778563, 60312.768959214634, 3651.2376076630903, 4115.255673124418, 4593.098865158675, 1228.8461168680515, 3946.2246366552245, 3235.435647633969, 1744.282980606724, 5167.217688376077, 11186.421837685695, 6837.231170361809, 6815.248466363286, 3049.5747092338815, 12906.736546173799, 6577.533005265447, 2813.684152924722, 3159.3014002151835, 2416.458445071371, 3332.8185921003524, 3062.5237149244404, 1805.8195316500369, 1492.8596253766198, 18399.852407834424, 1343.2614957334376, 3104.64621033301, 2584.239459749416, 19588.44759894133, 6138.412499701051 ], "var": [ 4939.851546064736, 8051.856988594986, 4782.2682775472385, 4530.25780869024, 6288.009822322399, 3902.6880578565165, 5511.120075733375, 4639.449856486978, 3375.229892695693, 6430.321641407679, 6364.183113399908, 5654.300433930789, 3575.343500397247, 4770.861691687935, 4373.298664965081, 2846.3921632453307, 6186.622545880439, 5107.739300996036, 5384.490349440498, 4462.925142584628, 6000.417011553119, 5085.238056751644, 8535.435708530971, 3250.0393723342886, 5387.33388987542, 5034.429737938683, 8376.674301630457, 4820.921713005923, 3618.2774683308917, 6405.011195533999, 6923.743445435091, 4226.890657634152 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 40.83315991588596, "crpss": 0.08749457508332059, "rps": 0.44106321736248816, "rpss": 0.024343543351227348, "mean_bias_mm": -3.7495008613738134, "mean_mae_mm": 57.49384856260564, "mean_rmse_mm": 82.66208219851778, "spread_error_ratio": 0.8787360221035543, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.3348103070397053, "pit_histogram": [ 0.13524, 0.0757, 0.0883, 0.09555, 0.09603, 0.09681, 0.09311, 0.09855, 0.10634, 0.11437 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.11189109385701597 }, "ondj_domain": { "years": [ 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "per_year": { "crps": [ 38.496752920630755, 40.463062217718345, 26.700192938022774, 28.463906886755524, 244.90535510619543, 37.84862162088508, 25.026956487690246, 49.970123673264204, 23.616083104947048, 28.158857111226315, 27.45800759350605, 35.37124833950308, 46.89756131520377, 85.48661637767763, 37.04215568501717, 49.16117412614046, 30.819068786817358, 76.56597022576189, 66.48656718535624, 25.632687193404085, 50.47235941329541, 35.37978613240495, 37.88313965908057, 39.0248667920672, 31.68842073874642, 22.41326741385565, 99.9553225730103, 25.04343543631543, 36.0855334796577, 29.853241376761407, 119.18902337023934, 29.14917170124313 ], "crps_clim": [ 43.05674508597644, 47.02174056492448, 28.84873411344585, 52.31210697339705, 337.83045973804184, 54.55256595155876, 38.94875701090369, 39.57782058741483, 27.74569141249191, 34.126369417367485, 27.450347808492733, 34.017006869578225, 52.72584373838084, 95.1322901374424, 31.016202641442625, 46.77726687336443, 28.68599867750331, 67.63450525795584, 70.45970873133518, 29.076021275933627, 49.86214141911897, 34.70899724260007, 55.60856424824002, 45.9400310845385, 29.402894877394107, 33.32071549456562, 163.04105609314394, 29.873009959301736, 48.200340322444724, 32.07710679517107, 177.18917611869378, 26.893576505878865 ], "rps": [ 0.4525648912945762, 0.328298775915524, 0.3810823163433712, 0.28985416908232786, 0.10462691443307964, 0.3436278724119003, 0.3047633135199266, 0.5964247347495435, 0.3462172016768102, 0.30631434986594813, 0.3727596984175669, 0.43691583195496614, 0.4722363013726831, 0.403722657301197, 0.46626168966102827, 0.4822962837946779, 0.36652614912839077, 0.630123240878454, 0.41497974369137264, 0.2993768380720451, 0.4774717381393985, 0.47089107908649297, 0.2151244544435443, 0.46117488690456326, 0.42023859767096133, 0.2807064043475524, 0.16718975193906163, 0.3450262193807949, 0.37355907143813755, 0.39345031512373296, 0.15110902025674725, 0.3949722275801253 ], "rps_clim": [ 0.4903301532167852, 0.44204091246608007, 0.3821454984532625, 0.5431907333012903, 0.5629552549427677, 0.538931603827915, 0.47718465303177104, 0.4269517164665013, 0.3648511299187768, 0.3588689197908303, 0.356723031227705, 0.4013877968759663, 0.5457092532164318, 0.5530781005304259, 0.3883080341726342, 0.41667877142632664, 0.33834680801777955, 0.5610985777523381, 0.4668682110446354, 0.34014334800184304, 0.464044269131601, 0.43822125796975975, 0.5000883325693602, 0.5339534977340119, 0.3734059025504393, 0.40314128440280195, 0.5592508943098848, 0.414709381099934, 0.516605453040115, 0.4212120203974677, 0.5555451413875876, 0.33021111911934736 ], "bias": [ 63.67103705795367, 12.239907151371092, 34.64330069302799, 51.81053785212375, -295.011799116103, 58.71807598797614, 39.23799409818678, -58.96096258072951, 6.246893889928854, -10.813092611552836, 4.538091516811249, -29.627911266534927, 79.4082734805883, -114.54224222356268, 58.300646443494394, -60.553794146348736, 30.1865225355501, 114.19320689496523, -73.057559839448, 15.616354189058441, -57.10865742401789, -26.295476432139967, 25.57162236868373, 64.52228290576981, -20.619672548469424, 25.703207754459974, -131.46729085880324, 18.967191163255716, 64.65622441693846, 49.85274547593013, -149.8951901715261, -16.759450269191966 ], "mae": [ 65.64722155418809, 57.2091905615098, 40.219898461902964, 53.19795803165171, 295.011799116103, 66.46737686724174, 44.221891158254174, 63.378913520122246, 32.23993292073419, 36.52511320469393, 37.80935474401917, 43.10969073536464, 79.4082734805883, 114.6610851362623, 61.177945884903295, 63.50007991893736, 54.39933517300671, 114.19320689496523, 84.3994037583411, 36.24898079797939, 61.86858470663779, 48.38501808439037, 50.901581363533744, 65.70703226969792, 34.92155717384609, 31.65986136284045, 134.06526564861227, 35.93808811627346, 65.39501250764185, 51.73575567343956, 155.07553039015647, 34.181540890592984 ], "mse": [ 5429.898009730742, 5489.622292748988, 2293.3268095400426, 3444.9299287209897, 99072.09862461484, 5310.46045096099, 2863.787261972936, 5899.163686027932, 1628.14990613405, 2530.395247605236, 2089.0679000797268, 2989.0143429057193, 7343.490155940044, 19104.62095691027, 6014.765291827968, 8138.736009477607, 4076.7082306030456, 16227.918976981136, 11798.150483962563, 2056.7388253525414, 5682.948720021264, 3294.1316265928726, 4281.866875419602, 5102.5715368434285, 1780.3458039228149, 1414.5825602625027, 21520.916209417446, 1835.9307550526803, 5025.407733589787, 3825.0748090406746, 31961.099855355675, 1943.6566574885524 ], "var": [ 5614.255670157092, 12945.65320649294, 6689.477153223415, 6043.872062613181, 9160.38928819905, 5686.081018865439, 6752.403509003224, 5791.845542936866, 4910.510528545972, 6615.283551582384, 7510.152222426747, 7845.870745567779, 4947.115270190159, 6690.7609441534805, 6523.449015405858, 4384.073036677942, 7877.489851605698, 5376.083745209462, 7067.902218140941, 6862.576796389293, 8075.767560648983, 6259.198801960975, 16212.31041577911, 4272.615926077819, 7774.347822067045, 7395.78025799866, 14356.731985210949, 6355.664901494137, 5436.392574374563, 7297.415382381949, 10130.062485570594, 5624.933208535441 ], "zero": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "crps": 49.397141780700025, "crpss": 0.17375090664080006, "rps": 0.3734339606211407, "rpss": 0.1739432342813032, "mean_bias_mm": -7.082155737886078, "mean_mae_mm": 69.15192125338851, "mean_rmse_mm": 97.06144583057693, "spread_error_ratio": 0.881936152923189, "zero_fraction": 0.0, "correlation": 0.637334340057514, "pit_histogram": [ 0.12205, 0.06179, 0.09418, 0.10886, 0.10474, 0.10591, 0.0989, 0.09875, 0.10813, 0.09669 ], "pit_reliability_index": 0.09936776702972028 } }, "distribution_full": { "ethiopia": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9846089198505857, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.028141958082121412 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 0.8923147167167313, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.1738766617215423 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9781098598660214, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.0995681880160614 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0085218198551802, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.03553604929746536 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0099393323083463, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.07709759908513131 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": 0.0 } }, "ondj_domain": { "mean_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9585541819701335, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.04664902197261507 }, "sd_ratio": { "area_median": 0.7774698254576545, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.2660428159710971 }, "q10_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0674598128110429, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.150282471832817 }, "q50_ratio": { "area_median": 1.0179103305099182, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.041430037700209116 }, "q90_ratio": { "area_median": 0.9426808985159348, "area_mean_abs_log": 0.09817697395161223 }, "zero_fraction_difference": { "area_median": 0.0, "area_mean": 0.0 } } } } } } }, "gates": { "ls": { "crps": { "Oct": { "training": { "mean_difference": 0.626241561258931, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.16445903165884365, 1.4785330038313986 ], "p_improvement": 0.91872, "years_better": 9, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": 0.2640990638120022, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.927163677209045, 1.8063125236808903 ], "p_improvement": 0.59375, "years_better": 5, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": false, "holm_p": 1.0 } }, "Nov": { "training": { "mean_difference": 0.2533611638672911, "bootstrap_95": [ 0.057916007637915094, 0.4324503828643968 ], "p_improvement": 0.99056, "years_better": 5, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": 0.7940092812373059, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.026540036954083277, 2.0884952406959165 ], "p_improvement": 0.921875, "years_better": 3, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": false, "holm_p": 1.0 } }, "Dec": { "training": { "mean_difference": 0.20592680007746914, "bootstrap_95": [ 0.056722867257892495, 0.3529485279177711 ], "p_improvement": 0.99124, "years_better": 7, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": 0.35683057798255446, "bootstrap_95": [ 0.11252111203133741, 0.553744080712982 ], "p_improvement": 0.98828125, "years_better": 1, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": false, "holm_p": 1.0 } }, "Jan": { "training": { "mean_difference": 0.29739704689797114, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.2806143724863798, 0.824094684376389 ], "p_improvement": 0.83564, "years_better": 9, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": 0.33965754466256615, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.6769831041518961, 1.4010159238551692 ], "p_improvement": 0.73046875, "years_better": 3, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": false, "holm_p": 1.0 } }, "ONDJ": { "training": { "mean_difference": 0.26963907081658195, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.9804060711793232, 1.4928665394965714 ], "p_improvement": 0.6583, "years_better": 13, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": 2.512193535767611, "bootstrap_95": [ -1.1509894917597059, 7.042326971974381 ], "p_improvement": 0.80078125, "years_better": 5, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": false, "holm_p": 1.0 } } }, "rps": { "Oct": { "training": { "mean_difference": 0.010904521742638083, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.007977568931812324, 0.02887328443401301 ], "p_improvement": 0.866675, "years_better": 9, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": -0.02189330941882938, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.032814359951327254, -0.01024325038116778 ], "p_improvement": 0.0078125, "years_better": 7, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": true, "holm_p": 1.0 } }, "Nov": { "training": { "mean_difference": 0.004251820562207082, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.009816589066230853, 0.018303643409536982 ], "p_improvement": 0.71637, "years_better": 10, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": 0.015033275340599603, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.002264174748821212, 0.029937190131464668 ], "p_improvement": 0.9375, "years_better": 2, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": false, "holm_p": 1.0 } }, "Dec": { "training": { "mean_difference": 0.005630883963924892, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.02192800589480432, 0.031831001482142414 ], "p_improvement": 0.654605, "years_better": 9, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": -0.009621229467922696, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.05781809919056082, 0.03980049055048324 ], "p_improvement": 0.359375, "years_better": 4, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": true, "holm_p": 1.0 } }, "Jan": { "training": { "mean_difference": -0.031472809417554946, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.13977702860784477, 0.07310479107474158 ], "p_improvement": 0.29258, "years_better": 10, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": -0.12959259815912774, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.3634217065673189, 0.10781238032476693 ], "p_improvement": 0.16796875, "years_better": 4, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": true, "holm_p": 1.0 } }, "ONDJ": { "training": { "mean_difference": 0.004809281876514977, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.005632773388789717, 0.015601433175494117 ], "p_improvement": 0.800865, "years_better": 12, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": 0.0033223131192063327, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.011587618202928612, 0.018620897184074198 ], "p_improvement": 0.66015625, "years_better": 3, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": false, "holm_p": 1.0 } } } }, "vs": { "crps": { "Oct": { "training": { "mean_difference": 0.04234043645096438, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.06177962321895442, 0.13828161574528222 ], "p_improvement": 0.78808, "years_better": 9, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": 0.07173429581371926, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.0963445133826728, 0.22836850091616848 ], "p_improvement": 0.7890625, "years_better": 3, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": false, "holm_p": 1.0 } }, "Nov": { "training": { "mean_difference": 0.03899599796795428, "bootstrap_95": [ 0.009853933677664656, 0.07289986516671805 ], "p_improvement": 0.991075, "years_better": 9, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": -0.021966654599065327, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.11034725878732887, 0.039933524753160046 ], "p_improvement": 0.39453125, "years_better": 3, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": true, "holm_p": 1.0 } }, "Dec": { "training": { "mean_difference": -0.02607025007755655, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.0597604853686029, 0.008368782661997618 ], "p_improvement": 0.07596, "years_better": 15, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": -0.005767459330786873, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.06938972690901818, 0.05603305521017291 ], "p_improvement": 0.4296875, "years_better": 4, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": true, "holm_p": 0.30384 } }, "Jan": { "training": { "mean_difference": -0.2638342714436842, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.39310568838169274, -0.13894040737824714 ], "p_improvement": 0.000585, "years_better": 18, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": -0.35374698382911635, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.630855385678231, -0.06098283893879086 ], "p_improvement": 0.03515625, "years_better": 6, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": true, "training_significant": true, "operational_no_harm": true, "holm_p": 0.002925 } }, "ONDJ": { "training": { "mean_difference": 0.26934127139828945, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.02006376621963673, 0.5981621248694732 ], "p_improvement": 0.95043, "years_better": 7, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": -0.22039909130153879, "bootstrap_95": [ -1.021907239233121, 0.45225982270533477 ], "p_improvement": 0.30078125, "years_better": 3, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": true, "holm_p": 1.0 } } }, "rps": { "Oct": { "training": { "mean_difference": 5.232026187308031e-05, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.0012719384165597613, 0.0013009131039397387 ], "p_improvement": 0.529365, "years_better": 9, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": 0.001378626176504548, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.0007377574122614672, 0.0032007316307906446 ], "p_improvement": 0.88671875, "years_better": 2, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": false, "holm_p": 0.93368 } }, "Nov": { "training": { "mean_difference": -0.0006101365925461957, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.00151824635659009, 0.0002788195439177052 ], "p_improvement": 0.10497, "years_better": 13, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": -0.0013207384451047743, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.0030294419674982455, 6.336580725337339e-05 ], "p_improvement": 0.078125, "years_better": 6, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": true, "holm_p": 0.41988 } }, "Dec": { "training": { "mean_difference": -0.0034910128032576517, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.008748278242882955, 0.0018065584264065954 ], "p_improvement": 0.10943, "years_better": 15, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": -0.0030438914685969667, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.008633924876532202, 0.0032033111926369276 ], "p_improvement": 0.1875, "years_better": 5, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": true, "holm_p": 0.41988 } }, "Jan": { "training": { "mean_difference": -0.017240831915107082, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.02728201465505251, -0.0070095731870576565 ], "p_improvement": 0.00251, "years_better": 16, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": -0.03594766270863679, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.05427032936572853, -0.017030784044833422 ], "p_improvement": 0.0078125, "years_better": 7, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": true, "training_significant": true, "operational_no_harm": true, "holm_p": 0.01255 } }, "ONDJ": { "training": { "mean_difference": -8.731929877037424e-05, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.0022164536486034858, 0.0019444040086522539 ], "p_improvement": 0.46684, "years_better": 8, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": 0.0004988665725232516, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.0023584998551003248, 0.002970858997664204 ], "p_improvement": 0.609375, "years_better": 2, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": false, "holm_p": 0.93368 } } } }, "sqrt_mvs": { "crps": { "Oct": { "training": { "mean_difference": -0.20581314236107517, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.4624991030123235, 0.05392324531791003 ], "p_improvement": 0.068895, "years_better": 15, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": -0.003788151994067901, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.31191507899033466, 0.302114634931697 ], "p_improvement": 0.48828125, "years_better": 4, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": true, "holm_p": 0.13779 } }, "Nov": { "training": { "mean_difference": -0.06919392324355027, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.19814144120709382, 0.07256270949156098 ], "p_improvement": 0.1659, "years_better": 16, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": -0.09481783487259832, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.29005733529069816, 0.12859705575000718 ], "p_improvement": 0.20703125, "years_better": 6, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": true, "holm_p": 0.1659 } }, "Dec": { "training": { "mean_difference": -0.06521167012775721, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.1082186042552401, -0.019736840003634303 ], "p_improvement": 0.00547, "years_better": 20, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": -0.03435442329161398, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.0968706325235153, 0.026784322055558807 ], "p_improvement": 0.18359375, "years_better": 4, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": true, "training_significant": true, "operational_no_harm": true, "holm_p": 0.02188 } }, "Jan": { "training": { "mean_difference": -0.5353120866715643, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.7775351841479332, -0.30895654011810864 ], "p_improvement": 5e-05, "years_better": 20, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": -0.7170367313275597, "bootstrap_95": [ -1.2602591121203537, -0.1377930715759749 ], "p_improvement": 0.0390625, "years_better": 6, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": true, "training_significant": true, "operational_no_harm": true, "holm_p": 0.00025 } }, "ONDJ": { "training": { "mean_difference": -0.3702188342732636, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.6907466534091649, -0.0583145617978051 ], "p_improvement": 0.016295, "years_better": 18, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": -0.5373156847044367, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.992851365494519, 0.009657851212095416 ], "p_improvement": 0.0546875, "years_better": 5, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": true, "training_significant": true, "operational_no_harm": true, "holm_p": 0.048885 } } }, "rps": { "Oct": { "training": { "mean_difference": -0.0015267721530628335, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.004604483898289778, 0.0014504989266343514 ], "p_improvement": 0.172695, "years_better": 12, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": -0.002764294501993954, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.007700086206418937, 0.001902167904827943 ], "p_improvement": 0.15625, "years_better": 4, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": true, "holm_p": 0.27177 } }, "Nov": { "training": { "mean_difference": -0.007128493080847994, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.010597233777186124, -0.0038697485086636864 ], "p_improvement": 0.00022, "years_better": 19, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": -0.0077090599993959105, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.012756356818693687, -0.0021352254538117474 ], "p_improvement": 0.0234375, "years_better": 6, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": true, "training_significant": true, "operational_no_harm": true, "holm_p": 0.00088 } }, "Dec": { "training": { "mean_difference": -0.016964010464521655, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.03129949708851971, -0.003938710007292084 ], "p_improvement": 0.012095, "years_better": 15, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": -0.006958252926778569, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.02551002367683097, 0.010822917648811983 ], "p_improvement": 0.265625, "years_better": 5, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": true, "training_significant": true, "operational_no_harm": true, "holm_p": 0.036285 } }, "Jan": { "training": { "mean_difference": -0.08897139614882683, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.13454787819422123, -0.04593446896782618 ], "p_improvement": 0.000165, "years_better": 18, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": -0.1580532542252403, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.26762887593150775, -0.04780596308765823 ], "p_improvement": 0.01953125, "years_better": 7, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": true, "training_significant": true, "operational_no_harm": true, "holm_p": 0.000825 } }, "ONDJ": { "training": { "mean_difference": -0.0013559805647793896, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.0037338981968975398, 0.0009601319250814823 ], "p_improvement": 0.135885, "years_better": 13, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": -0.0035774811638829146, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.009428233566261497, 0.0018610730001533129 ], "p_improvement": 0.140625, "years_better": 6, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": true, "holm_p": 0.27177 } } } }, "pt": { "crps": { "Oct": { "training": { "mean_difference": -0.08546999670234505, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.5082676134608107, 0.35451145792067784 ], "p_improvement": 0.35146, "years_better": 15, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": 0.30385289380973246, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.19969175432046687, 0.8376592190066924 ], "p_improvement": 0.859375, "years_better": 4, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": false, "holm_p": 1.0 } }, "Nov": { "training": { "mean_difference": 0.04221601253861932, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.13125248444373358, 0.23474086963068105 ], "p_improvement": 0.666175, "years_better": 14, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": -0.17146344844133554, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.4182727545006325, 0.09995054927590341 ], "p_improvement": 0.1328125, "years_better": 5, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": true, "holm_p": 1.0 } }, "Dec": { "training": { "mean_difference": 0.04470889378570584, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.04275659945777799, 0.12223236441460977 ], "p_improvement": 0.843525, "years_better": 7, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": 0.12693572483196253, "bootstrap_95": [ 0.025104986497309707, 0.23456489741387276 ], "p_improvement": 0.9765625, "years_better": 2, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": false, "holm_p": 1.0 } }, "Jan": { "training": { "mean_difference": -0.20476092775438628, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.4285998334181668, 0.024017611916918105 ], "p_improvement": 0.046845, "years_better": 14, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": -0.37717360409375633, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.8368528629260145, 0.16026595851309955 ], "p_improvement": 0.09375, "years_better": 7, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": true, "holm_p": 0.234225 } }, "ONDJ": { "training": { "mean_difference": -0.044815987926022594, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.670772614805457, 0.6096379386815975 ], "p_improvement": 0.44546, "years_better": 15, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": -0.5123920525832708, "bootstrap_95": [ -1.0969100148503523, 0.12600027157101756 ], "p_improvement": 0.09375, "years_better": 5, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": true, "holm_p": 1.0 } } }, "rps": { "Oct": { "training": { "mean_difference": 0.0022346605754997536, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.004489461451341166, 0.00859904177926808 ], "p_improvement": 0.738255, "years_better": 9, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": 0.00203314414405506, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.007345840141744192, 0.010930084995804792 ], "p_improvement": 0.65625, "years_better": 3, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": false, "holm_p": 1.0 } }, "Nov": { "training": { "mean_difference": -0.0001683374697289778, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.004717382497919041, 0.00435546561379052 ], "p_improvement": 0.46973, "years_better": 11, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": -0.004272562976390108, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.0068674229201664185, -0.0018635891020127027 ], "p_improvement": 0.015625, "years_better": 6, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": true, "holm_p": 1.0 } }, "Dec": { "training": { "mean_difference": -0.008566541535247116, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.019205089015821637, 0.0012996575213659175 ], "p_improvement": 0.063655, "years_better": 14, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": -0.010590736012227098, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.020347367759709627, 0.0002449740882590846 ], "p_improvement": 0.04296875, "years_better": 7, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": true, "holm_p": 0.25462 } }, "Jan": { "training": { "mean_difference": -0.0755914116171048, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.11792219633384825, -0.035888549430561086 ], "p_improvement": 0.000445, "years_better": 17, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": -0.14042469564506393, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.24133262493408175, -0.0421448263643264 ], "p_improvement": 0.01171875, "years_better": 7, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": true, "training_significant": true, "operational_no_harm": true, "holm_p": 0.002225 } }, "ONDJ": { "training": { "mean_difference": -0.00011955861817423974, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.00800578743006452, 0.007964780997416042 ], "p_improvement": 0.487065, "years_better": 13, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": 3.081628975182271e-05, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.009616573559017938, 0.009272844339569299 ], "p_improvement": 0.50390625, "years_better": 4, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": false, "holm_p": 1.0 } } } }, "dc": { "crps": { "Oct": { "training": { "mean_difference": -0.8836669350344001, "bootstrap_95": [ -1.81659767857648, -0.018933494155470017 ], "p_improvement": 0.036315, "years_better": 14, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": 0.3067875044037791, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.827938444733077, 1.7328524316644869 ], "p_improvement": 0.63671875, "years_better": 5, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": false, "holm_p": 0.1807 } }, "Nov": { "training": { "mean_difference": -0.13125661286116566, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.6920329215654978, 0.3935441690452307 ], "p_improvement": 0.326575, "years_better": 12, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": 0.524172306667304, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.7640641810730925, 2.1913967272244927 ], "p_improvement": 0.71484375, "years_better": 6, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": false, "holm_p": 0.979725 } }, "Dec": { "training": { "mean_difference": -0.028900072394069925, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.21427817379134642, 0.17345892165717308 ], "p_improvement": 0.38546, "years_better": 13, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": -0.21759578008359515, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.4912492820652707, 0.11151759212460055 ], "p_improvement": 0.109375, "years_better": 7, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": true, "holm_p": 0.979725 } }, "Jan": { "training": { "mean_difference": -0.09380947748669995, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.5632772640128914, 0.32614620366054775 ], "p_improvement": 0.35139, "years_better": 11, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": -0.3310422600112304, "bootstrap_95": [ -1.2268009241071436, 0.7736298925124203 ], "p_improvement": 0.26953125, "years_better": 5, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": true, "holm_p": 0.979725 } }, "ONDJ": { "training": { "mean_difference": -1.3440063227881318, "bootstrap_95": [ -2.714217285525575, 0.06278728323803186 ], "p_improvement": 0.03614, "years_better": 16, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": 2.2643485189788732, "bootstrap_95": [ -2.059793446849259, 8.06930717022374 ], "p_improvement": 0.75390625, "years_better": 6, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": false, "holm_p": 0.1807 } } }, "rps": { "Oct": { "training": { "mean_difference": -0.002691926400831518, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.021532657042732706, 0.015425545744387613 ], "p_improvement": 0.39064, "years_better": 12, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": 0.014856219545114943, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.0011649523068229875, 0.03165708995262215 ], "p_improvement": 0.92578125, "years_better": 2, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": false, "holm_p": 1.0 } }, "Nov": { "training": { "mean_difference": -3.920635799343347e-05, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.022193668467730313, 0.020987795720258884 ], "p_improvement": 0.49788, "years_better": 10, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": 0.029369208900970292, "bootstrap_95": [ 0.002239084448612253, 0.05808029176377067 ], "p_improvement": 0.95703125, "years_better": 3, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": false, "holm_p": 1.0 } }, "Dec": { "training": { "mean_difference": 0.038910236644959684, "bootstrap_95": [ 0.0007577478551689466, 0.0791216395056504 ], "p_improvement": 0.966055, "years_better": 8, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": 0.005627588282142902, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.06248979562482601, 0.08543601285736763 ], "p_improvement": 0.59375, "years_better": 5, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": false, "holm_p": 1.0 } }, "Jan": { "training": { "mean_difference": 0.0005646734106052251, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.0758504672977703, 0.07101004724628927 ], "p_improvement": 0.505755, "years_better": 8, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": -0.11107673579902427, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.3077879191574217, 0.06770418324998516 ], "p_improvement": 0.1484375, "years_better": 4, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": true, "holm_p": 1.0 } }, "ONDJ": { "training": { "mean_difference": 0.003172501960056253, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.014304450397110978, 0.0199954617591411 ], "p_improvement": 0.63662, "years_better": 10, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": 0.024527542004087965, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.002020481629243341, 0.05783078563983104 ], "p_improvement": 0.90625, "years_better": 3, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": false, "holm_p": 1.0 } } } }, "loci": { "crps": { "Oct": { "training": { "mean_difference": 0.6312990281964747, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.1660176784047831, 1.4959332046326832 ], "p_improvement": 0.918565, "years_better": 11, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": 0.3336237061792777, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.9046751511580797, 1.947073705815634 ], "p_improvement": 0.6171875, "years_better": 5, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": false, "holm_p": 1.0 } }, "Nov": { "training": { "mean_difference": 0.12642536132994975, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.035635429204892814, 0.2865380698362286 ], "p_improvement": 0.926585, "years_better": 9, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": 0.5846700999458609, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.0789116630099631, 1.6285881575836985 ], "p_improvement": 0.87890625, "years_better": 4, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": false, "holm_p": 1.0 } }, "Dec": { "training": { "mean_difference": 0.09733423081933283, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.041304701809472, 0.23100201895328665 ], "p_improvement": 0.903715, "years_better": 7, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": 0.19980657753686204, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.03803231028216886, 0.4137606168586863 ], "p_improvement": 0.9296875, "years_better": 2, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": false, "holm_p": 1.0 } }, "Jan": { "training": { "mean_difference": 0.18161257229117456, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.35201103407704165, 0.6806415217842956 ], "p_improvement": 0.74121, "years_better": 11, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": 0.08876197821032705, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.9113428350713394, 1.113812951419357 ], "p_improvement": 0.578125, "years_better": 4, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": false, "holm_p": 1.0 } }, "ONDJ": { "training": { "mean_difference": 0.30514073611520365, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.988360392426779, 1.5635783210636012 ], "p_improvement": 0.67235, "years_better": 13, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": 2.540959723924893, "bootstrap_95": [ -1.1866711256562432, 7.152314013057379 ], "p_improvement": 0.80078125, "years_better": 5, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": false, "holm_p": 1.0 } } }, "rps": { "Oct": { "training": { "mean_difference": 0.0088174817852823, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.004507058696987443, 0.021501646005120723 ], "p_improvement": 0.89411, "years_better": 9, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": -0.01096292527994102, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.020390403101668148, 0.00048190991393052364 ], "p_improvement": 0.0546875, "years_better": 7, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": true, "holm_p": 1.0 } }, "Nov": { "training": { "mean_difference": -0.0014532823794209764, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.012461326921829658, 0.009244516717079437 ], "p_improvement": 0.397925, "years_better": 10, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": 0.018454209459610772, "bootstrap_95": [ 0.007462712179540788, 0.028309069941025604 ], "p_improvement": 0.98828125, "years_better": 2, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": false, "holm_p": 1.0 } }, "Dec": { "training": { "mean_difference": 0.01849582882462534, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.02210613824874007, 0.056876221066139786 ], "p_improvement": 0.807385, "years_better": 9, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": -0.005727054957463305, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.07146971806674157, 0.058062809605911675 ], "p_improvement": 0.45703125, "years_better": 3, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": true, "holm_p": 1.0 } }, "Jan": { "training": { "mean_difference": -0.02732230519072336, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.13621828930180643, 0.07975036109280914 ], "p_improvement": 0.319085, "years_better": 10, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": -0.1265633145198017, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.36208169386584155, 0.11058171297363617 ], "p_improvement": 0.16796875, "years_better": 5, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": true, "holm_p": 1.0 } }, "ONDJ": { "training": { "mean_difference": 0.005041737306636688, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.005757298230731995, 0.0161656603746038 ], "p_improvement": 0.804425, "years_better": 12, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": 0.0032710283159119308, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.01205679784826303, 0.018864764486856173 ], "p_improvement": 0.6640625, "years_better": 3, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": false, "holm_p": 1.0 } } } }, "eqm": { "crps": { "Oct": { "training": { "mean_difference": 0.32681199497518193, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.19678788469640793, 0.836333995944853 ], "p_improvement": 0.88278, "years_better": 11, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": 0.8143069375170335, "bootstrap_95": [ 0.36224949708470866, 1.281449101632784 ], "p_improvement": 0.99609375, "years_better": 1, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": false, "holm_p": 1.0 } }, "Nov": { "training": { "mean_difference": 0.19595430555749946, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.16340677860132657, 0.5783805208261271 ], "p_improvement": 0.839445, "years_better": 13, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": -0.007734580816230352, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.4143385934064383, 0.44873289063995087 ], "p_improvement": 0.48828125, "years_better": 4, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": true, "holm_p": 1.0 } }, "Dec": { "training": { "mean_difference": -0.07136955880822443, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.21256834494144353, 0.07702502262730711 ], "p_improvement": 0.17642, "years_better": 13, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": -0.12992817316889205, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.34454329674650086, 0.13211558606417179 ], "p_improvement": 0.1640625, "years_better": 6, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": true, "holm_p": 0.70568 } }, "Jan": { "training": { "mean_difference": -0.42689234084859934, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.7013474166742375, -0.168723346597035 ], "p_improvement": 0.002615, "years_better": 14, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": -0.8172822527122117, "bootstrap_95": [ -1.405387369255785, -0.1988429139381896 ], "p_improvement": 0.02734375, "years_better": 7, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": true, "training_significant": true, "operational_no_harm": true, "holm_p": 0.013075 } }, "ONDJ": { "training": { "mean_difference": 0.8744762691574285, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.24797803498147078, 2.155213798297342 ], "p_improvement": 0.894995, "years_better": 12, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": 0.5282633412529982, "bootstrap_95": [ -1.021151069459247, 2.527712499149207 ], "p_improvement": 0.6484375, "years_better": 5, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": false, "holm_p": 1.0 } } }, "rps": { "Oct": { "training": { "mean_difference": 0.005435653645608776, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.005955398460692499, 0.01693501990907767 ], "p_improvement": 0.815425, "years_better": 12, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": 0.019236497542889454, "bootstrap_95": [ 0.011292170516540143, 0.028651579323176163 ], "p_improvement": 1.0, "years_better": 0, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": false, "holm_p": 1.0 } }, "Nov": { "training": { "mean_difference": -0.002351868408181633, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.013142082472823911, 0.00823523686129593 ], "p_improvement": 0.33494, "years_better": 12, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": 0.004523366218144448, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.006706478532404455, 0.01570714237450927 ], "p_improvement": 0.77734375, "years_better": 3, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": false, "holm_p": 1.0 } }, "Dec": { "training": { "mean_difference": -0.028645148987873615, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.038796868676376405, -0.018080533398427696 ], "p_improvement": 4e-05, "years_better": 19, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": -0.026796011674402043, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.04306065245685503, -0.011671611314342745 ], "p_improvement": 0.015625, "years_better": 6, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": true, "training_significant": true, "operational_no_harm": true, "holm_p": 0.0002 } }, "Jan": { "training": { "mean_difference": -0.09371723658053899, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.1501713550329508, -0.04052240033699415 ], "p_improvement": 0.00179, "years_better": 16, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": -0.17513955955816435, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.30717243092132956, -0.04023712210786191 ], "p_improvement": 0.0390625, "years_better": 6, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": true, "training_significant": true, "operational_no_harm": true, "holm_p": 0.00716 } }, "ONDJ": { "training": { "mean_difference": 0.004691026486172085, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.004779811432099193, 0.014550067849968146 ], "p_improvement": 0.81961, "years_better": 12, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": 0.007211422858637032, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.0032096342485672166, 0.01815733884546429 ], "p_improvement": 0.8671875, "years_better": 3, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": false, "holm_p": 1.0 } } } }, "gqm": { "crps": { "Oct": { "training": { "mean_difference": -0.23582590863955769, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.5664301712069535, 0.09363208729622977 ], "p_improvement": 0.09117, "years_better": 14, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": 0.006095916291458003, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.3662087089713273, 0.3752320023986502 ], "p_improvement": 0.51171875, "years_better": 4, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": false, "holm_p": 0.27351000000000003 } }, "Nov": { "training": { "mean_difference": -0.03028923058052298, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.19361818510821935, 0.14709991839976072 ], "p_improvement": 0.36761, "years_better": 12, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": -0.13294752764448425, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.3418352842114814, 0.08422990846072598 ], "p_improvement": 0.13671875, "years_better": 5, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": true, "holm_p": 0.73522 } }, "Dec": { "training": { "mean_difference": 0.004890518788882432, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.038321279027629364, 0.04976454353667659 ], "p_improvement": 0.577995, "years_better": 13, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": 0.028822639478747913, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.032733929690659844, 0.08974308119055269 ], "p_improvement": 0.80078125, "years_better": 3, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": false, "holm_p": 0.73522 } }, "Jan": { "training": { "mean_difference": -0.368367270809407, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.552646605077655, -0.19542294680331826 ], "p_improvement": 0.000185, "years_better": 18, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": -0.5566676687558734, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.9693969104202772, -0.11558778877542802 ], "p_improvement": 0.02734375, "years_better": 7, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": true, "training_significant": true, "operational_no_harm": true, "holm_p": 0.000925 } }, "ONDJ": { "training": { "mean_difference": -0.435738836119381, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.8469871956982962, -0.04912789275458436 ], "p_improvement": 0.022235, "years_better": 18, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": -0.6685191691732806, "bootstrap_95": [ -1.257417530071327, 0.052274578877614 ], "p_improvement": 0.06640625, "years_better": 6, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": true, "holm_p": 0.08894 } } }, "rps": { "Oct": { "training": { "mean_difference": -0.0010152670391266189, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.0070623612627732715, 0.004894627984750084 ], "p_improvement": 0.369745, "years_better": 13, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": 0.005694453595773877, "bootstrap_95": [ 0.000564206194732797, 0.011002156189905084 ], "p_improvement": 0.9453125, "years_better": 3, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": false, "holm_p": 0.73949 } }, "Nov": { "training": { "mean_difference": -0.0030936296781794944, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.009426701415834444, 0.0026669387101289264 ], "p_improvement": 0.167765, "years_better": 12, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": -0.0014383379339013222, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.011575472871075406, 0.010970818289462114 ], "p_improvement": 0.4296875, "years_better": 4, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": true, "holm_p": 0.67106 } }, "Dec": { "training": { "mean_difference": 0.020522550807259152, "bootstrap_95": [ 0.005618193875582857, 0.03646176616067202 ], "p_improvement": 0.99215, "years_better": 8, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": 0.033464003783953714, "bootstrap_95": [ 0.010741436504675395, 0.0600628542334577 ], "p_improvement": 0.9765625, "years_better": 2, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": false, "holm_p": 0.99215 } }, "Jan": { "training": { "mean_difference": -0.02340065525987713, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.04959613334739953, -0.0001910576569336517 ], "p_improvement": 0.04315, "years_better": 12, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": -0.08019633908353077, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.1379881046211763, -0.02305519955620796 ], "p_improvement": 0.0234375, "years_better": 6, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": true, "holm_p": 0.21575 } }, "ONDJ": { "training": { "mean_difference": -0.0014397443215222704, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.004532254493218139, 0.0017100635354003735 ], "p_improvement": 0.192635, "years_better": 13, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": -0.004875011698368209, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.012988938509667883, 0.0029418094769544413 ], "p_improvement": 0.15234375, "years_better": 6, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": true, "holm_p": 0.67106 } } } }, "dqm": { "crps": { "Oct": { "training": { "mean_difference": -0.2160466672056128, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.8977821491895717, 0.4452496077097053 ], "p_improvement": 0.272955, "years_better": 15, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": 0.7446273904584135, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.16375252866979073, 1.8494783096412712 ], "p_improvement": 0.88671875, "years_better": 2, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": false, "holm_p": 1.0 } }, "Nov": { "training": { "mean_difference": 0.1806490348657939, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.1663505056016605, 0.5377568371492685 ], "p_improvement": 0.834105, "years_better": 12, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": 0.9766347986970505, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.1930586111980982, 2.6177329672942804 ], "p_improvement": 0.81640625, "years_better": 3, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": false, "holm_p": 1.0 } }, "Dec": { "training": { "mean_difference": 0.18541466559890854, "bootstrap_95": [ 0.01685508800257239, 0.3711083563753065 ], "p_improvement": 0.97175, "years_better": 8, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": 0.013357197811505683, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.28076728864179373, 0.2941975679306595 ], "p_improvement": 0.5390625, "years_better": 4, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": false, "holm_p": 1.0 } }, "Jan": { "training": { "mean_difference": 0.030771253146122817, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.6018447699420949, 0.5808310713882501 ], "p_improvement": 0.532815, "years_better": 8, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": -0.07211587506522699, "bootstrap_95": [ -1.2315019897699924, 1.5150984617504966 ], "p_improvement": 0.47265625, "years_better": 5, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": true, "holm_p": 1.0 } }, "ONDJ": { "training": { "mean_difference": -0.009405868578533058, "bootstrap_95": [ -1.046094498790234, 1.1110961033160918 ], "p_improvement": 0.493325, "years_better": 15, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": 3.221919991306725, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.7621977989673399, 8.665212888380992 ], "p_improvement": 0.77734375, "years_better": 5, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": false, "holm_p": 1.0 } } }, "rps": { "Oct": { "training": { "mean_difference": 0.004672579809458659, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.0066260530542767305, 0.015533528887096448 ], "p_improvement": 0.785455, "years_better": 10, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": 0.01463354971062629, "bootstrap_95": [ 0.006282681426492076, 0.02436004017974394 ], "p_improvement": 1.0, "years_better": 0, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": false, "holm_p": 1.0 } }, "Nov": { "training": { "mean_difference": 0.0043202148872839565, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.009933406919524886, 0.0187021002152734 ], "p_improvement": 0.714775, "years_better": 9, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": 0.02435502809268586, "bootstrap_95": [ 0.001935090388372225, 0.04694612301178117 ], "p_improvement": 0.93359375, "years_better": 2, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": false, "holm_p": 1.0 } }, "Dec": { "training": { "mean_difference": 0.04626838833624868, "bootstrap_95": [ 0.008370357259782744, 0.08859754975614709 ], "p_improvement": 0.985465, "years_better": 7, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": 0.013599159319209908, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.06282060728652734, 0.1118784122518337 ], "p_improvement": 0.6015625, "years_better": 5, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": false, "holm_p": 1.0 } }, "Jan": { "training": { "mean_difference": 0.0028621373457416825, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.07485379963704117, 0.07369853119983229 ], "p_improvement": 0.527315, "years_better": 9, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": -0.1113241726626987, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.3191572296814612, 0.08278368611782214 ], "p_improvement": 0.171875, "years_better": 4, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": true, "holm_p": 1.0 } }, "ONDJ": { "training": { "mean_difference": 0.011323982944072617, "bootstrap_95": [ 0.002563143330933444, 0.020446696661996413 ], "p_improvement": 0.987435, "years_better": 9, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": 0.018716093318683978, "bootstrap_95": [ 0.0024116737708065987, 0.03780613503687398 ], "p_improvement": 0.953125, "years_better": 3, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": false, "holm_p": 1.0 } } } }, "qdm": { "crps": { "Oct": { "training": { "mean_difference": -0.40000450465823684, "bootstrap_95": [ -1.137849422341488, 0.3134269242053711 ], "p_improvement": 0.15267, "years_better": 15, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": 0.6953646329911294, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.26044389981643523, 1.894912050358287 ], "p_improvement": 0.85546875, "years_better": 3, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": false, "holm_p": 0.76335 } }, "Nov": { "training": { "mean_difference": 0.13693489165704753, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.1577108142519485, 0.44276203613480564 ], "p_improvement": 0.80441, "years_better": 11, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": 0.803739025339927, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.34219626408235243, 2.3654328492562895 ], "p_improvement": 0.7734375, "years_better": 4, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": false, "holm_p": 1.0 } }, "Dec": { "training": { "mean_difference": 0.04453163108484678, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.13478198589765447, 0.2546311538012442 ], "p_improvement": 0.6391, "years_better": 12, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": 0.00445054673786735, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.29021216367759606, 0.32197164980569226 ], "p_improvement": 0.51953125, "years_better": 4, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": false, "holm_p": 1.0 } }, "Jan": { "training": { "mean_difference": -0.24437931967886728, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.764950227360955, 0.22814609647044037 ], "p_improvement": 0.1856, "years_better": 11, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": -0.5129493333339199, "bootstrap_95": [ -1.5037377607250344, 0.7131959423567839 ], "p_improvement": 0.20703125, "years_better": 6, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": true, "holm_p": 0.76335 } }, "ONDJ": { "training": { "mean_difference": -0.2217323466577629, "bootstrap_95": [ -1.0932957574037385, 0.7369106804917448 ], "p_improvement": 0.332285, "years_better": 16, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": 3.0753643933279182, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.9640448315197473, 8.642995148199324 ], "p_improvement": 0.76171875, "years_better": 5, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": false, "holm_p": 0.996855 } } }, "rps": { "Oct": { "training": { "mean_difference": 0.0023915140755692865, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.008716194065693397, 0.013564085373456271 ], "p_improvement": 0.655775, "years_better": 12, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": 0.010024812000486917, "bootstrap_95": [ 0.000398082029509851, 0.020880438025464614 ], "p_improvement": 0.94921875, "years_better": 3, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": false, "holm_p": 1.0 } }, "Nov": { "training": { "mean_difference": 0.008434105121060015, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.0037460111607978434, 0.02054901022651251 ], "p_improvement": 0.900845, "years_better": 9, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": 0.019747371657334006, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.0012836088035048238, 0.04090101987649808 ], "p_improvement": 0.921875, "years_better": 3, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": false, "holm_p": 1.0 } }, "Dec": { "training": { "mean_difference": -0.006336557314559443, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.026233059410964304, 0.01354535763446215 ], "p_improvement": 0.276175, "years_better": 12, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": -0.02473961844456557, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.059286615239768276, 0.006849117223119193 ], "p_improvement": 0.12890625, "years_better": 6, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": true, "holm_p": 1.0 } }, "Jan": { "training": { "mean_difference": -0.06467512433378077, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.1334528867307867, 0.0018836557723972405 ], "p_improvement": 0.0434, "years_better": 12, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": -0.1722070547778606, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.3327954873725802, -0.01290470179448638 ], "p_improvement": 0.046875, "years_better": 5, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": true, "holm_p": 0.217 } }, "ONDJ": { "training": { "mean_difference": 0.012113820225913868, "bootstrap_95": [ 0.0034458854454032903, 0.020933752821230465 ], "p_improvement": 0.99307, "years_better": 7, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": 0.020786240101109972, "bootstrap_95": [ 0.0005428861163272042, 0.044219681202536464 ], "p_improvement": 0.94140625, "years_better": 3, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": false, "holm_p": 1.0 } } } }, "sdm": { "crps": { "Oct": { "training": { "mean_difference": -0.29633521287399045, "bootstrap_95": [ -1.0481705002016317, 0.42660574476308244 ], "p_improvement": 0.225335, "years_better": 15, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": 0.7792116422363462, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.1568130132274279, 1.9445909632203935 ], "p_improvement": 0.8828125, "years_better": 2, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": false, "holm_p": 1.0 } }, "Nov": { "training": { "mean_difference": 0.1927044242006053, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.20237290388272278, 0.5877157280505807 ], "p_improvement": 0.82099, "years_better": 11, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": 1.043948595385576, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.19523633101696736, 2.6190102441426037 ], "p_improvement": 0.83984375, "years_better": 4, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": false, "holm_p": 1.0 } }, "Dec": { "training": { "mean_difference": 0.28400314140685495, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.0477707595061835, 0.6190213970532094 ], "p_improvement": 0.94021, "years_better": 8, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": 0.14235230466485205, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.361285031486632, 0.6460317622520768 ], "p_improvement": 0.69140625, "years_better": 3, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": false, "holm_p": 1.0 } }, "Jan": { "training": { "mean_difference": 0.7103309094030378, "bootstrap_95": [ 0.08400615430687935, 1.321859559491958 ], "p_improvement": 0.979445, "years_better": 9, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": 0.3847380613946521, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.7343524616215684, 1.591585838537629 ], "p_improvement": 0.7265625, "years_better": 3, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": false, "holm_p": 1.0 } }, "ONDJ": { "training": { "mean_difference": 0.0025106566962431742, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.8339665748856955, 0.8877713330736436 ], "p_improvement": 0.50097, "years_better": 15, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": 3.1882964247565804, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.788660338263433, 8.639130270313473 ], "p_improvement": 0.7734375, "years_better": 5, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": false, "holm_p": 1.0 } } }, "rps": { "Oct": { "training": { "mean_difference": 0.004215433674837736, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.009548306757969218, 0.017793159421355453 ], "p_improvement": 0.71954, "years_better": 12, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": 0.01724929748195083, "bootstrap_95": [ 0.007393033724045755, 0.027773015315505786 ], "p_improvement": 0.9921875, "years_better": 1, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": false, "holm_p": 1.0 } }, "Nov": { "training": { "mean_difference": 0.009906820585304852, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.012624304214555118, 0.032692008767882676 ], "p_improvement": 0.79588, "years_better": 9, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": 0.04571363660602824, "bootstrap_95": [ 0.00988374862406139, 0.08219369794554993 ], "p_improvement": 0.95703125, "years_better": 3, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": false, "holm_p": 1.0 } }, "Dec": { "training": { "mean_difference": 0.04320756565460785, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.018302289007187632, 0.10246656081544868 ], "p_improvement": 0.90663, "years_better": 8, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": 0.013691954040095, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.07960306368479894, 0.11543642971263908 ], "p_improvement": 0.6171875, "years_better": 3, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": false, "holm_p": 1.0 } }, "Jan": { "training": { "mean_difference": 0.02796096127763023, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.09499082042067471, 0.14909687757272522 ], "p_improvement": 0.66563, "years_better": 9, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": -0.0848306807946423, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.3587281965257512, 0.2000871607973821 ], "p_improvement": 0.3046875, "years_better": 4, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": true, "holm_p": 1.0 } }, "ONDJ": { "training": { "mean_difference": 0.01548852162661033, "bootstrap_95": [ 0.006900575294846315, 0.024040169739419845 ], "p_improvement": 0.998785, "years_better": 5, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": 0.022213337706607973, "bootstrap_95": [ 0.002949820375939058, 0.0444935267929241 ], "p_improvement": 0.95703125, "years_better": 3, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": false, "holm_p": 1.0 } } } }, "cdft": { "crps": { "Oct": { "training": { "mean_difference": -0.01221400963161412, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.7847902911199429, 0.7627428453416031 ], "p_improvement": 0.487815, "years_better": 14, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": 0.9010618143670921, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.07423586476379616, 2.2405598130676125 ], "p_improvement": 0.8828125, "years_better": 2, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": false, "holm_p": 1.0 } }, "Nov": { "training": { "mean_difference": 0.26527693973040745, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.028783609005747543, 0.5857575583280329 ], "p_improvement": 0.943345, "years_better": 11, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": 0.899638039750559, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.23537649774645564, 2.4656914964982866 ], "p_improvement": 0.8125, "years_better": 3, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": false, "holm_p": 1.0 } }, "Dec": { "training": { "mean_difference": 0.3439372342585718, "bootstrap_95": [ 0.12618260507430362, 0.5933043380600667 ], "p_improvement": 0.998365, "years_better": 7, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": 0.30285036928677245, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.12400390245925957, 0.9013543701447119 ], "p_improvement": 0.8046875, "years_better": 3, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": false, "holm_p": 1.0 } }, "Jan": { "training": { "mean_difference": 0.2822970426585098, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.41858351505134056, 0.8884516121970069 ], "p_improvement": 0.78092, "years_better": 7, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": 0.2722115189420435, "bootstrap_95": [ -1.1736414076789115, 2.3656570232752787 ], "p_improvement": 0.546875, "years_better": 4, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": false, "holm_p": 1.0 } }, "ONDJ": { "training": { "mean_difference": 0.04070975313196742, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.9331528443147282, 1.0981811209112096 ], "p_improvement": 0.52767, "years_better": 15, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": 3.1336355899768464, "bootstrap_95": [ -1.0263459216337674, 8.847797894007439 ], "p_improvement": 0.76171875, "years_better": 5, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": false, "holm_p": 1.0 } } }, "rps": { "Oct": { "training": { "mean_difference": 0.007792521044596217, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.002286393756118054, 0.017932601115861375 ], "p_improvement": 0.923515, "years_better": 8, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": 0.011011872160292015, "bootstrap_95": [ 0.001796371744700262, 0.02344731131553674 ], "p_improvement": 0.97265625, "years_better": 2, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": false, "holm_p": 1.0 } }, "Nov": { "training": { "mean_difference": 0.015522617147751569, "bootstrap_95": [ 0.003206318046189925, 0.027871258014159624 ], "p_improvement": 0.98835, "years_better": 6, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": 0.02197925071305091, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.00014169849776921734, 0.045402325463460416 ], "p_improvement": 0.9375, "years_better": 2, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": false, "holm_p": 1.0 } }, "Dec": { "training": { "mean_difference": 0.0786405012925488, "bootstrap_95": [ 0.038242336788307386, 0.12161618530004135 ], "p_improvement": 0.999455, "years_better": 7, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": 0.03248172073818407, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.049139306497201336, 0.14935973631483732 ], "p_improvement": 0.609375, "years_better": 4, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": false, "holm_p": 1.0 } }, "Jan": { "training": { "mean_difference": 0.01877264786143934, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.06349979187575482, 0.09313196061049774 ], "p_improvement": 0.674545, "years_better": 8, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": -0.12261539922851734, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.3279928004512537, 0.0820824773123428 ], "p_improvement": 0.14453125, "years_better": 4, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": true, "holm_p": 1.0 } }, "ONDJ": { "training": { "mean_difference": 0.010978634253281057, "bootstrap_95": [ 0.003801777420057163, 0.01830555181895709 ], "p_improvement": 0.995925, "years_better": 6, "years": 24 }, "operational": { "mean_difference": 0.016469472959411903, "bootstrap_95": [ -0.0014718450383637664, 0.03685231509493129 ], "p_improvement": 0.921875, "years_better": 3, "years": 8 }, "decision": { "adopt": false, "training_significant": false, "operational_no_harm": false, "holm_p": 1.0 } } } } } }