--- name: narrative-tracker description: Track rising, peaking, and fading crypto/tech narratives with quantitative mindshare + velocity signals and explicit positioning calls metadata: commits: true permissions: - contents:write title: Narrative Tracker mode: read-only category: crypto tags: - crypto - research requires: - XAI_API_KEY --- Read `memory/MEMORY.md` for context on prior narrative observations. Read the last 3 days of `memory/logs/` — specifically any prior `### narrative-tracker` entries — to (a) avoid re-reporting the same narratives without new info, and (b) detect phase transitions vs the last run. ## Goal Produce a *decision-grade* narrative map: every narrative gets a mindshare score, a velocity arrow, a sentiment tag, named drivers, and an explicit position call. Classification without a position call is noise. ## Steps ### 1. Ingest signals **a. X/Twitter narratives — X.AI API (primary).** The primary signal is a direct `curl` to the X.AI Responses API with Grok's `x_search` tool — see **## Fetching** below for the full contract. `XAI_API_KEY` is injected into this skill's environment via `requires:`; it is present and valid, so this path is required whenever the key check prints `KEY_PRESENT`. Set the Bash tool `timeout` to ≥180000 when running the curl (x_search takes 30-120s) and capture the HTTP status: ```bash FROM_DATE=$(date -u -d "3 days ago" +%Y-%m-%d 2>/dev/null || date -u -v-3d +%Y-%m-%d) TO_DATE=$(date -u +%Y-%m-%d) # Presence check uses the ${VAR:+x} modified expansion, NOT a bare $XAI_API_KEY — the bare # form trips the Bash secret-expansion analyzer; the :+ form does not (it never puts the value on the line). [ -n "${XAI_API_KEY:+x}" ] && echo KEY_PRESENT || echo KEY_UNSET # Build the JSON payload to a file with jq (do NOT hand-assemble it), then POST the file. # TWO SEPARATE commands on purpose: the jq (which interpolates $PROMPT/$FROM_DATE/$TO_DATE) # is kept OUT of the ./secretcurl command — never pipe jq into secretcurl, and never put a # $VAR in the secretcurl line, or the Bash permission analyzer blocks the network call. # The `>` redirect to /tmp is fine in read-only mode (it is not a repo path; nothing reverts it). PROMPT="Search X for the dominant crypto and tech narratives from ${FROM_DATE} to ${TO_DATE}. Return 12-15 distinct narrative threads. For each: 1) short label, 2) 3-5 representative @handles driving it, 3) 2-3 tweet permalinks, 4) rough mention-volume descriptor (niche / growing / saturating / cooling), 5) the strongest one-line bear case against it." jq -n --arg p "$PROMPT" --arg fd "$FROM_DATE" --arg td "$TO_DATE" \ '{model:"grok-4.7", input:[{role:"user",content:$p}], tools:[{type:"x_search",from_date:$fd,to_date:$td}]}' \ > /tmp/xai-nt-payload.json HTTP=$(./secretcurl -s -o /tmp/xai-nt.json -w '%{http_code}' --max-time 150 -X POST "https://api.x.ai/v1/responses" \ -H "Content-Type: application/json" \ -H "Authorization: Bearer {XAI_API_KEY}" \ -d @/tmp/xai-nt-payload.json) echo "xai http=$HTTP bytes=$(wc -c ` line proving Path A actually ran and returned a non-2xx code (or an empty body, or timed out). If you have no `xai http=` line, you did not run the call - go back and run it. Reach for the fallback **only** when Path A genuinely fails - `KEY_UNSET`, a non-2xx HTTP code, an empty parse, or a timeout. It is lower quality (WebSearch favours old high-engagement posts) and is **never co-equal** with Path A. Record the fetch failure in your final output with the **true reason** - `key-unset` | `http-` | `empty` | `timeout` - never "XAI_API_KEY unavailable" when the key was set (a slow curl is a `timeout`, not a missing key). Then compile narratives via WebSearch (`crypto narrative ${TO_DATE}`, `AI agent crypto trend this week`) and WebFetch on individual tweet URLs; discard anything older than the 3-day window. **c. Quantitative reference points (supplement).** Independently of the fetch path, cross-check mindshare against external quantitative benchmarks with one WebSearch: `DefiLlama narrative tracker` OR `Kaito mindshare leaderboard`. Pull 1-2 concrete numbers (project name, metric, link) to calibrate the mindshare scores in step 2. This is a calibration cross-check, **not** a narrative source. Do not paraphrase — extract facts. **d. Memory diff.** Extract narrative labels mentioned in the last 3 days of `### narrative-tracker` log entries. You'll compare against them in step 4. ### 2. Score each narrative For each distinct narrative (merge near-duplicates aggressively — "AI agents" and "agentic crypto" are the same), assign: | Field | Scale | How to decide | |---|---|---| | **Mindshare** | 1-5 | 1 = fringe, 3 = known in the sector, 5 = dominating timelines. Base on count of distinct drivers + whether you had to dig or it surfaced unprompted. | | **Velocity** | ↑↑ / ↑ / → / ↓ / ↓↓ | Compared to the 3-day window or prior log entries. ↑↑ = tripled in attention, ↓↓ = was loud 3 days ago, now absent. | | **Phase** | Emerging / Rising / Peak / Fading | Use the velocity + mindshare combo. Emerging = low mindshare, high velocity. Peak = high mindshare, flat/down velocity. Fading = high mindshare last week, now ↓. | | **Sentiment** | Bull / Mixed / Bear / Cope | Cope = bag-holder energy, bear narratives dressed as bull takes. | | **Drivers** | 2-3 named | Accounts, projects, or funds amplifying it. Include @handles. | | **Bear case** | 1 line | The sharpest argument against. If the consensus is obviously right, say so and mark "no contrarian edge". | | **Position** | FRONT-RUN / RIDE / FADE / WATCH / IGNORE | FRONT-RUN = emerging + contrarian edge. RIDE = rising, not yet peaked. FADE = peak with weak fundamentals or reflexivity flip. WATCH = unclear. IGNORE = mindshare 1-2 with no catalyst. | Drop any narrative that ends up IGNORE unless it's structurally important — noise reduction is the goal. ### 3. Detect transitions Compare today's narratives to the last 3 days of logs: - **NEW** — narrative wasn't in prior logs at all - **PROMOTED** — phase moved up (e.g. Emerging → Rising) - **DEMOTED** — phase moved down - **DEAD** — was in prior logs, now absent from all signals Transitions are the highest-value output — the point of a daily tracker is to catch inflection points, not re-report the zeitgeist. ### 4. Flag reflexivity For each narrative, flag if the story itself is moving outcomes: - Token prices moving on narrative alone (no fundamentals shift) - Projects rebranding/pivoting to ride the narrative - VCs publicly endorsing to manufacture legitimacy - Prediction markets or on-chain flows reflecting narrative belief Only flag explicit cases with a concrete example. "Reflexivity" without evidence is hand-waving. ### 5. Format the notification Keep under 4000 chars. Lead with transitions and reflexivity — those are the decisions. Classification goes below. ``` *Narrative Tracker — ${today}* TRANSITIONS • NEW: