A VIEW FROM HERE
by deb weiss

America's One China, Two Alka Seltzer Policy
July 22, 1999


With mounting whispers of nuclear ambitions, internal strife, and a simmering showdown with Taiwan in the air, China is very much on our minds.

That means it's time to take another long, boring look at foreign policy. It isn't sexy or cute, and it doesn't make us cry (though the good Lord knows it should). It sure doesn't have that mini-series touch we've come to expect from current events. It's not even fun to write about.

EMAIL: DEB WEISS

Still, it matters: particularly since it appears that the Clinton administration isn't altogether prepared for whatever might come next. Mr. Clinton's China policy (which didn't take shape until those busy fund-raising months that led up to the 1996 elections), is still a work in progress.

Of late it's come into sharper and clearer focus than at any time since just before the 1992 elections: but it was a very different creature, then. In '92, in the shadow of Tienanmen, Candidate Clinton was a champion of human rights. The pundits celebrated his denunciations of the butchers of Beijing and his disdain for George Bush's cynical Realpolitik.

Since '96, though, the president's policy has "evolved," the butchers have become his very good friends, and the pundits celebrate his conversion to cynical Realpolitik. He's a 'One China' man, nowadays, with an abiding faith in the power of global markets to heal all ills.

A June 1997 speech by National Security Adviser Sandy Berger set forth the new themes, promising a China that would be "stable, open and non-aggressive; that embraces political pluralism and international rules of conduct; that works with us to build a secure international order."

"The One China policy has worked," Berger assured his audience back then. "And it continues to be the right approach. It has allowed democracy to flourish in Taiwan . . . It provides the stability needed for growth. And it buttresses our conviction that the Taiwan question can only be settled by the Chinese themselves peacefully."

At the time, the Taiwanese Association of America reacted angrily. "To say 'the Taiwan question can only be solved by the Chinese themselves peacefully,' is as ludicrous as saying that the United States question can only be settled by the British themselves," wrote association president C.K. Kuo. "We Taiwanese have emphasized time and again that we aspire to be a full and equal member of the international community, based on our Taiwanese identity and culture."

While, arguably, a One China doctrine has been US policy since the 1972 Shanghai Communique (which said, simply, that Taiwan was "a part" of China), most administrations have implicitly supported Taiwanese autonomy. On Mr. Clinton's watch, however, despite that showy 1996 standoff in the Taiwan Strait, the balance has tended to wobble increasingly toward Beijing

That reflects the notion cherished in some circles -- mostly, though not exclusively, on the left -- that if China is only included in the world community, especially in global trade, it will feel good about itself, and democracy will flower.

"Today," Berger enthused in 1997, "China has signed on to many [international institutions and agreements], from the World Bank to the Chemical Weapons Convention, from the Universal Declaration of Human Rights to the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty."

Yet in the two years since those glowing words were so confidently uttered, China has repeatedly violated the spirit and, often, the letter of those agreements, shipping illegal arms to rogue states and shamelessly violating human rights accords (the abuses continue to horrify international observers).

Chinese authorities routinely harass and arrest dissidents, Christians, artists -- even mere eccentrics. The wide-net crackdown that began just before Mr. Clinton's 1998 state visit continues to expand inexorably.

As for the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, last week's announcement that China has added the neutron bomb to its small but growing arsenal may not add up to a nightmare scenario -- yet. But it's sure not good news.

Meanwhile, Taiwan is once again under the gun. A recent request by Taiwan's President Lee for "state-to-state" talks with the mainland was interpreted as a call for a 'Two China' policy -- a virtual declaration of independence. Beijing reacted furiously, warning that it would use force to subdue any move toward Taiwanese sovereignty. Amazingly, the Clinton administration followed suit with threats to cut off military and other assistance to Taiwan unless Lee backs down -- a sharp departure from our usual posture of support.

It's all very worrisome -- a foretaste of regional or even global conflicts that could erupt in coming years. The platitudes and policy reversals emanating from the current administration are hardly reassuring.

Perhaps the latest crop of presidential candidates should consider taking some time out from opposition research, focus-groups, and polling data, to begin meditating on what a serious foreign policy might actually look like. I have a feeling that one of these days, we're going to need one.

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A VIEW FROM HERE archive

The Politics of Speaking Ill of the Dead -- July 19, 1999

The Nasty Legacy -- July 15, 1999

All in a Slow News Week... -- July 12, 1999

Traps For The Young -- July 8, 1999

Remembering Michael Dukakis -- July 5, 1999

R.I.P., O.I.C. -- July 1, 1999

Mr. Clinton's Post-War Vengeance -- June 28, 1999

Guns, Cuisinarts and the Bill of Rights -- June 24, 1999

Attack of the Concerned Advocates -- June 21, 1999

FTC Nation -- June 17, 1999

The Very, Very Coincidental World of Bill and Hillary Clinton -- June 14, 1999

Water-boiling in Our Time -- June 10, 1999

Crisis and Peace -- June 7, 1999

Reinventing God -- June 3, 1999

On This Memorial Day -- May 31, 1999

The Un-McCarthy Era -- May 27, 1999

Unspeakable Spin -- May 25, 1999