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California: Census Bureau Data
FOREIGN-BORN CHANGE SINCE 1980: Top Ten Countries 1980-1996
1980 Census 1990 Census 1996 CPS* 1 Mexico 1,277,969 Mexico 2,474,148 Mexico 3,421,000 2 Philip. 237,713 Philip. 481,837 Philip. 647,000 3 Canada 163,300 El Sal. 280,781 El Sal. 399,000 4 U.K. 133,690 Vietnam 271,061 Vietnam 348,000 5 China 116,331 China 211,263 China 298,000 6 Germany 112,673 Korea 200,194 Korea 262,000 7 Vietnam 83,277 Canada 150,387 India 169,000 8 Korea 83,180 Guata. 135,875 U.K. 117,000 9 Japan 79,593 U.K. 135,391 Canada 110,000 10 El Sal. 67,656 Iran 115,415 Germany 85,000 All Others 1,224,651 All Others 2,002,473 All Others 2,200,000 Total 3,580,033 Total 6,458,825 Total 8,056,000 * Current Population Survey data is subject to sampling distortion.
1990 CENSUS DATA ON FOREIGN-BORN SETTLEMENT
California's foreign-born population share in the last Census (21.7%) was the highest in the
country (over twice the national level). Between 1980 and 1990, the state's immigrant
population rose by 80 percent. This was the third highest rate of growth in the country (after
Nevada and Georgia).
The state's population grew by 25 percent. The immigrant increase accounted for 48 percent of the state's overall population increase. That share is understated because the children born to immigrants after their arrival are added to the native-born share.
California's 2,474,000 Mexican-born immigrants represented nearly two-fifths (38%) of the state's foreign-born total. The number of Mexican immigrants almost doubled (94%) from the 1980 Census.
Most of California's 1990 foreign-born population (94.2%) lived in 19 of its 56 counties. Los Angeles County by itself had 45 percent of the total (2,895,066). The county with the highest share of foreign-born was San Francisco (34%) followed by Los Angeles (32.7%). Outside of the 19 counties with over 50,000 immigrants, the average share of the foreign born was 10.3 percent, still higher than the overall national rate (7.9%)
The other 18 California counties, after Los Angeles, with large foreign-born populations in 1990 were: (2) Orange - 575,108; (3) San Diego - 428,810; (4) Santa Clara - 347,201; (5) San Francisco - 246,034; (6) Alameda - 230,375; (7) San Bernadino - 186,896; (8) Riverside - 173,754; (9) San Mateo - 164,767; (10) Fresno - 119,109; (11) Ventura - 114,004; (12) Contra Costa - 107,060; (13) Sacramento - 103,878; (14) San Joaquin - 78,361; (15) Monterey - 76,666; (16) Kern - 66,141; (17) Santa Barbara 62,587; (18) Tulare - 54,925; (19) Stanislaus - 52,844.
Less than one-third (31.2%) of the state's foreign born were naturalized U.S. citizens in 1990.
Among metropolitan areas (MSAs) only Los Angeles and New York had over one million
immigrants (both had over 2 million). Of the 26 other MSAs with over 100,000 immigrants in
1990, California had 9 of them. They are listed below with their number of foreign born (in
thousands) and the share that the foreign born constitute of their overall population:
Orange County (575.1 - 23.9%),San Francisco (441.8 - 27.5%), San Diego (428.8 - 17.2%), Riverside-San Bernadino (360.4 - 13.9%), San Jose (347.2 - 23.2%), Oakland (337.1 - 16.2%), Fresno (131.9 - 17.5%), Sacramento-Yolo (120.4 - 9.0%), Ventura (113.7 - 17.0%).
In addition the following other California MSAs had foreign-born shares higher than 10%: Salinas (21.6%), Merced (19.8%), Stockton-Lodi (16.4%), Yolo (14.4%), Modesto (14.3%), Santa Cruz-Watsonville (14%), Bakersfield (12.2%) and Yuba City (11.8%).
Between the 1980 and 1990 Censuses, the population of California grew by 25.2%. The state's foreign-born population grew by 80.4% during that same period and accounted for 48.1% of the state's overall population growth. That share would be significantly higher if the children born to immigrants after their arrival were added to their share of population growth, rather than to the native-born share.
THE IMMIGRANT STOCK
There are about 14,850,000 people in California who may be considered "immgrant stock."
The immigrant stock is a term that refers to first generation immigrants, the "1.5 generation"
(children of immigrants who are born abroad), and the second generation (the native-born Americans whose parents immigrated).
NET INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION
The Census Bureau estimates that California's population increased by 410,655 over the last
year (ending in July 1997). Compared to that overall increase, net international migration
accounted for an estimated increase of 231,325. Thus immigration accounted for over 56
percent of the state's population increase (that is more than double the national median share of
population increase due to immigration). California did not have the largest share of population
increase directly attributable to immigration, but it did have the largest amount of net increase in
immigrants in the country.
POPULATION CHANGE 1900 - 2000
It helps to have a clear perspective of the past population change that the state has experienced
when considering the role of immigration in California's current and future population change.
Over the past 50 years, the population of the state has increased more than three-fold. Almost as
much of recent population growth has come from immigration as from birth rates, to which
immigrants also contribute. Because California is exporting large numbers of its natives to other
states, it would have a low rate of population increase if not for the immigrant inflow.
POPULATION PROJECTION 2000 - 2025
The Census Bureau population projection noted above is the "middle" projection, and it assumes
immigration at a net annual increase of 820,000. There are other projections based on different
assumptions. In the Census Bureau's "high" immigration projection, assuming annual net
immigration of 1,370,000, the population in 2025 is more than six percent higher than in the
middle projection, and it is over 11 percent higher by 2050. For California, the high immigration
scenario could mean a population in 2050 as high as 72,000,000. If immigration were
significantly scaled back, the population increase attributable to immigration and the
population spill-over effects from other states could be significantly reduced over time. See Immigration and Population Growth
Other mid-range population projections for 2025 include 44,372,000 by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and 46,917,000 by the Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy (CCSCE) and a projected 48,626,000 by the California Department of Finance (DOF).
UCLA, which does not have a 2025 projection, would have the highest projection, inasmuch as its projection for 2020 is 49,149,000.
From about 34 million in 1999, the projections to 2040 range from 53.3 million by the CCSCE, 58.7 million by the DOF, and 63.4 million by UCLA.
FAIR, 11/99.
The 1996 Census Bureau population projection has California's population growing by 52
percent between 2000 and 2025 (to 49,285,000). That is the highest projected rate of growth in
the country. It is clear that the projection contemplates continued high-volume immigrant
settlement in the state.
(Source: How Many Californians? Public Policy Institute of California, Oct. 1999)
