--- name: pubar-data-analysis description: Use when executing and reporting the analysis for a Public Administration Review (PAR) manuscript so it survives expert, double-blind review and supports honest Evidence for Practice — uncertainty, robustness, and triangulation appropriate to quantitative, experimental, or mixed work. Guides analysis norms; it does not fabricate results. --- # Data Analysis (pubar-data-analysis) PAR reviewers are methodologically capable public-management scholars, and the journal endorses the **TOP transparency guidelines** — so analyses should be reproducible and documented (see `pubar-transparency-and-data`). Because PAR articles carry **Evidence for Practice**, every estimate that drives a managerial takeaway must be analyzed honestly enough to bear that weight. This skill covers execution and reporting; design decisions live in `pubar-research-design`. ## When to trigger - Running main and supporting analyses; building the results section - A reviewer asked for robustness, heterogeneity, or alternative specifications - Reconciling preregistered vs. exploratory analyses - Making the analysis reproducible before deposit ## Analysis norms PAR expects 1. **Report uncertainty honestly.** Confidence/credible intervals, not just stars; the **magnitude and substantive/managerial meaning** of the estimate, not just its significance. A practitioner needs effect size, not a p-value. 2. **Robustness that probes, not decorates.** Show specifications that could *break* the result (alternative measures, samples, estimators, fixed effects), and say what you learn. 3. **Heterogeneity with discipline.** Pre-specify subgroups where possible (agency type, jurisdiction size, sector); correct for multiple comparisons; don't mine an interaction and theorize it post hoc. 4. **Right inference.** Cluster at the assignment/sampling level (agency, district); wild-cluster bootstrap when clusters are few — a common public-management data situation. 5. **Preregistration discipline.** Clearly separate **registered** from **exploratory** analyses; reconcile and justify deviations. 6. **Measurement.** Validate constructs (red tape, PSM, performance); report reliability; show results are not an artifact of a coding/scaling choice — measurement debates are central in PA. ## Mixed-methods integration - State explicitly where the qualitative evidence corroborates, refines, or contradicts the quantitative estimate; do not present them in parallel silos with no integration. ## Reproducibility while you work (not at the end) - One **master script** regenerates every table and figure from the (raw or constructed) data. - **Set and report seeds** for bootstrap, randomization inference, simulation, any stochastic step. - Pin software/package versions (`renv.lock`, `requirements.txt`, recorded `ssc`/`net` installs). - Keep table/figure numbers matched to script outputs; document design/prep decisions in the supplementary document PAR recommends. ## Execution bridge (StatsPAI / Stata MCP) Run the battery, don't just enumerate it. Full map: [`execution-with-mcp`](../../../shared-resources/empirical-methods/execution-with-mcp.md). PAR is public administration — survey/observational and some experimental work; identification + clustered/multilevel inference, magnitude for practice. - **Many outcomes / specifications:** `romano_wolf` (step-down FWER) or `benjamini_hochberg`. - **OVB sensitivity:** `oster_delta` / `sensemakr`. - **Inference:** `wild_cluster_bootstrap` (few clusters), `twoway_cluster` / `conley`. - **Re-fit off one handle:** `audit_result(result_id)` lists missing checks + the exact `suggest_function` for each. - **Exhibits:** `etable` / `did_summary_to_latex` from the handle — no retyped numbers. Decisive checks in the body, exhaustive battery in the appendix. [JF execution walkthrough](../../../Journal-of-Finance-Skills/resources/worked-examples/02-execution-walkthrough.md). ## Anti-patterns - Stars-only tables with no effect sizes or intervals (a practitioner can't act on stars) - "Robustness" that only reruns near-identical specs to manufacture stability - p-hacking / fishing for a significant interaction; HARKing exploratory results into hypotheses - Clustering at the wrong level or ignoring few-cluster problems - An Evidence-for-Practice point that the analysis does not actually support ## Output format ``` 【Main estimate】magnitude + interval + managerial meaning 【Identification check】(per research-design) result 【Robustness】specs that could break it → what held 【Heterogeneity】pre-specified? MHT-adjusted? 【Registered vs exploratory】clearly separated? 【Reproducible】master script + seeds + pinned versions? [Y/N] 【Next】pubar-tables-figures ``` ## What PAR reviewers probe, by analytic tradition | Analytic tradition | The check a PAR referee runs first | The fix that earns the benefit of the doubt | |--------------------|------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------| | Survey / managerial experiment | Is inference randomization-based and pre-registered? | Randomization inference, pre-registered estimand, MDE reported | | Observational causal (reform) | Is the "causal" word (and the policy advice) doing more than the design licenses? | State estimand + assumption; sensitivity to an unobserved confounder | | Performance / administrative data | Are measures validated, and is gaming/selection ruled out? | Construct validation, reliability, selection checks | | Mixed methods | Do quant and qual estimates actually corroborate? | Show where they agree, and own where they diverge | ## Worked micro-example (illustrative numbers) A hypothetical PAR survey experiment tests whether a performance-feedback framing raises frontline managers' willingness to adopt a new reporting tool. The pre-registered ATE is **+7.4 points (95% CI 3.0 to 11.8)** on a 0–100 willingness scale, randomization-inference *p* = 0.006. An exploratory subgroup ("low-tenure managers") shows **+13 points**, but it was *not* pre-registered and after a Bonferroni adjustment across five exploratory subgroups its interval crosses zero. The disciplined write-up reports the +7.4 confirmatory effect with its interval and a managerial interpretation, flags the +13 figure as **exploratory and not multiplicity-robust**, and frames it as a hypothesis — so the Evidence-for-Practice point rests on the confirmatory estimate only. (All numbers illustrative.) ## Calibration anchors (hedged) - The bar is **field-wide PA significance plus honest practice relevance**; an effect only a specialist values, or a takeaway the data can't support, rarely clears PAR review. - PAR practices methodological breadth — a rigorous mixed-methods or case analysis is not second-class to a regression. Match the inference standard to the design. - TOP transparency expectations evolve; confirm the current data-policy wording on the journal's page (检索于 2026-06;以官网为准). ## Supplementary resources - [`../../resources/external_tools.md`](../../resources/external_tools.md) — estimation, inference, and survey packages - [`../../resources/official-source-map.md`](../../resources/official-source-map.md) — TOP transparency policy