# Futuristic Risk Intelligence — MCP Server & Data Feed

<!-- mcp-name: io.github.cct15/war-dashboard-data -->

Geopolitical conflict risk data for AI agents via [Model Context Protocol (MCP)](https://modelcontextprotocol.io/). Updated daily.

[![PyPI](https://img.shields.io/pypi/v/war-dashboard-data)](https://pypi.org/project/war-dashboard-data/)
[![war-dashboard-data MCP server](https://glama.ai/mcp/servers/cct15/war-dashboard-data/badges/card.svg)](https://glama.ai/mcp/servers/cct15/war-dashboard-data)

## MCP Tools

| Tool | Description |
|------|-------------|
| `get_conflict_risks` | Risk probabilities for 6 major geopolitical conflicts (escalation, ceasefire, regime change) with 1d/7d/30d horizons |
| `get_political_events` | High-impact political, economic, and natural disaster events with probability estimates |
| `get_maritime_traffic` | ⚠️ **Suspended** — AIS snapshot data does not meet reliability standards. Returns `status: unavailable`. |

## Install

```bash
pip install war-dashboard-data
```

## Quick Start

### Claude Desktop

Add to your `claude_desktop_config.json`:

```json
{
  "mcpServers": {
    "futuristic-risk": {
      "command": "war-dashboard-data"
    }
  }
}
```

Then ask Claude: *"What's the current escalation risk for Russia-Ukraine?"*

### Direct API (REST)

```bash
curl https://raw.githubusercontent.com/cct15/war-dashboard-data/main/conflicts.json
```

## Coverage

**6 conflict regions**: Russia-Ukraine, Iran-Israel/US, Israel-Palestine, China-Taiwan, India-Pakistan, US-Latin America

**5 event types** with clear risk direction:

| Event Type | Meaning | Direction |
|-----------|---------|-----------|
| `escalation` | Military escalation (strikes, invasion, nuclear test) | risk_increase |
| `ceasefire` | Ceasefire or peace agreement reached | risk_decrease |
| `ceasefire_cancel` | Existing ceasefire breaks down | risk_increase |
| `regime_change` | Government falls or changes | risk_increase |
| `diplomatic` | Major diplomatic event (nuclear deal, treaty) | neutral |

## Data Schema

### conflicts.json

Each conflict includes:

| Field | Description |
|-------|-------------|
| `conflict_id` | Region identifier (e.g. `russia_ukraine`, `iran_israel_us`) |
| `importance` | Editorial priority: `high` (active/major conflict, recommended for display) or `low` (low probability, included for data completeness) |
| `risk_level` | Overall risk: `high` / `medium` / `low` |
| `probability_30d / 7d / 1d` | P(event occurs within time horizon) |
| `situation_briefing` | Daily situation summary in Chinese, based on latest news |
| `risk_impact` | Structured impact analysis: `industries[]`, `assets[]`, `channels[]` (transmission paths) |
| `risk_events[]` | Breakdown by event type with per-type probabilities |
| `risk_events[].direction` | `risk_increase` (higher prob = more danger) or `risk_decrease` (higher prob = less danger) |
| `risk_events[].change_vs_7d_ago` | Probability delta vs. 7 days ago |
| `data_points` | Number of data sources (for confidence assessment) |
| `anomaly_detected` | Whether probability diverges from news intensity |

### political_events.json

Political, economic, and natural disaster events with probability estimates.

| Field | Description |
|-------|-------------|
| `event_summary` | Event description (Chinese) |
| `event_summary_en` | Event description (English) |
| `category` | `political` / `economic` / `natural_disaster` |
| `probability` | Estimated probability of occurrence |
| `importance` | Editorial priority: `high` (recommended for display) or `low` (data completeness) |
| `deadline` | Event deadline (YYYY-MM-DD), if applicable |
| `data_confidence` | `high` / `medium` / `low` (based on trading volume) |

### `importance` field

Both `conflicts.json` and `political_events.json` include an `importance` field:
- **`high`** — Editorially recommended. Active conflicts, high-probability events, or events with significant recent changes. Matches the daily intelligence report's display filter.
- **`low`** — Included for data completeness. Low probability, no active events, or not a current focus area. Agents may still find these useful for comprehensive monitoring.

### maritime.json

⚠️ **Suspended**: Free AIS data (45-second snapshots) produces sporadic zero-vessel readings in busy straits, which could mislead agents into inferring blockades. Returns `{"status": "unavailable", "zones": []}`. Will resume when a reliable AIS source is found.

## Use Cases

- **Trading agents**: Adjust crypto/commodity positions based on geopolitical risk changes
- **Risk management**: Monitor conflict escalation probabilities for portfolio hedging
- **DeFi protocols**: Dynamic collateral ratios based on geopolitical risk
- **Research agents**: Track probability trends across 6 conflict regions
- **News agents**: Get structured risk data instead of parsing headlines

## Technical Details

- **Zero dependencies**: MCP server uses only Python stdlib (works with Python 3.9+)
- **Data source**: Proprietary multi-source modeling
- **Update frequency**: Daily
- **Latency**: Public data has ~24h delay

## License

Data is free for non-commercial use. Contact for commercial licensing.

## Website & Research

**[futuristicrisks.com](https://futuristicrisks.com)** — Live risk dashboard, cascade impact analysis, daily verified intelligence, and API documentation.

**Research articles**:
- [2026年全球地缘政治风险全景分析](https://futuristicrisks.com/blog/geopolitical-risk-2026.html)
- [伊朗局势对油价和供应链的影响分析](https://futuristicrisks.com/blog/iran-oil-impact.html)
- [台海冲突对全球半导体供应链的风险评估](https://futuristicrisks.com/blog/taiwan-semiconductor-risk.html)

Built by [Futuristic Risk Intelligence](https://futuristicrisks.com).