February 2024 Corrado Consiglio The Hot Hand Fallacy module of the Cognitive Bias Ontology Hot Hand Fallacy Bias Ontology Sports Betting: A sports bettor assumes that a team that has won several games in a row is more likely to win the next one, overlooking factors like team performance and matchups. The Hot Hand Fallacy Bias, also known as the Hot Hand Fallacy, is a cognitive bias that leads people to believe that a series of successful outcomes in a random or chance-based process is more likely to continue in the short term. In other words, individuals tend to think that if they or someone else has experienced a streak of wins or successes, they are more likely to keep winning or succeeding in the near future. This bias can be observed in various contexts, such as sports, gambling, or even everyday decision-making. Define the participation of an entity in a process or an Activity inverse property of isParticipantIn A property connecting a Person who has a biased opinion about the possible outcome of a Future Event, such as a Random/Chance-based Occurrence, because he/she thinks that there is a correlation between this future event and a series of past events. A property connecting an Entity (Sequence) that affects in different ways another entity (Probability). A property linking a series of events which Outcome brings to the same effect inverse property of HasOutcomeEffect inverse property of producesOutcomeEffect a property linking an event which Outcome will produce an effect Success is the state or condition of meeting a defined range of expectations. It may be viewed as the opposite of failure. The criteria for success depend on context and may be relative to a particular observer or belief system. One person might consider a success what another person considers a failure, particularly in cases of direct competition or a zero-sum game. Similarly, the degree of success or failure in a situation may be differently viewed by distinct observers or participants, such that a situation that one considers to be a success, another might consider to be a failure, a qualified success or a neutral situation. For example, a film that is a commercial failure or even a box-office bomb can go on to receive a cult following, with the initial lack of commercial success even. Success This class represent an event that will happen in the next future. FutureEvent This class represent an event that will happen in the next future and it is characterized by chance-based probability. Next Chance-Based Occurence This is an abstract frame for durative activities, in which the Agent enters an ongoing state of the Activity, remains in this state for some Duration of Time, and leaves this state either by finishing or by stopping. The Agent's Activity should be intentional. This frame is intended mostly for the inheritance of common FEs, and to provide the frame structure for the beginning, ongoing, finish, or stop stage of an Activity, each of which constitutes a subframe of this frame. This frame should be compared to the Process frame Activity An Event takes place at a Place and Time. Big earthquakes only happen along plate boundaries. INI The party will take place on Sunday in the all-you-can-eat buffet. Event This frame contains general words for Individuals, i.e. humans. The Person is conceived of as independent of other specific individuals with whom they have relationships and independent of their participation in any particular activity. They may have an Age, Descriptor, Origin, Persistent_characteristic, or Ethnicity. A man from Phoenix was shot yesterday. She gave birth to a screaming baby yesterday. I study 16-year-old female adolescents. I am dating an African-American man. She comforted the terrified child. I always thought of him as a stupid man. People This frame characterizes the likelihood that a Hypothetical_event will happen as a position on a scale of impossible to inevitable. The likelihood can expressed as numerical Odds or a metaphorical representation of the Position on a scale. There's a 20 % chance that you'll succeed. The odds that he'll actually do it are one in a million. Probability The words in this frame describe entities that occur in some temporally-ordered sequence. The entities thus have some sort of relation between them that might be described by the Relative_time frame. However, at this time, this frame has no Frame Relation with that frame (though this is still under discussion). Additionally, it should be noted that the words in this frame have a metaphorical link to the words in Shape. Describe in detail the sequence of steps taken during an emergency. Sequence A class for a player involved in an Activity such as Sport Bets. Player An individual for the next chance-based occurence class such as a Footbal Team Match Bet where the probability level is not completely random and can be influenced by different external and/or internal elements of the game itself. Football Team Match Bet a sequence of past bets that have the same outcome effect, namely in this case a Winning Bet. Football Team Match Bet Series High Low The probability level that an event n the next futur, such a chance-based occurence, can have a specific outcome effect. For example In the Hot Hand fallacy bias if the outcome of previous events series was a Victory then for the player the probability level that the next event will be a Victory is higher. On the contrary in the opposite bias, the stock of luck, the player belevies that is less probable of winning again in the next event because the luck will be less. ProbabiltyLevel An individual representing an Acitvity such as Sport Bets in which is involved a person such as a Bettor. Sport Bets A sport Bettor individual who is participating in an Activity such as Sport Bets Sport Bettor An individual representing the outcome effect of events such as a Football Team Match Bet. In this case a winning bet will be the effect of a winning match. Winning Bet