Hot Hand Fallacy Bias Ontology
type: Ontology
created: February 2024
creator: Corrado Consiglio
description: The Hot Hand Fallacy module of the Cognitive Bias Ontology
has component: Submissions:AffectedBy
has component: Submissions:Parameter
has component: Submissions:PartOf
has component: Submissions:Participation
has component: Submissions:Provenance
has component: cognitivecharacteristics.html
has component: ontology
scenarios: Sports Betting: A sports bettor assumes that a team that has won several games in a row is more likely to win the next one, overlooking factors like team performance and matchups.
comment: The Hot Hand Fallacy Bias, also known as the Hot Hand Fallacy, is a cognitive bias that leads people to believe that a series of successful outcomes in a random or chance-based process is more likely to continue in the short term. In other words, individuals tend to think that if they or someone else has experienced a streak of wins or successes, they are more likely to keep winning or succeeding in the near future. This bias can be observed in various contexts, such as sports, gambling, or even everyday decision-making.

string
description: Define the participation of an entity in a process or an Activity

hasParticipant
type: ObjectProperty
inverse of: isParticipantIn
domain: Class
  union of: Activity
  union of: Predicting
range: Class
  union of: PerceivedValidity
  union of: People
comment: inverse property of isParticipantIn

hasBiasedOpinion
type: ObjectProperty
domain: People
range: Class
  union of: Bias
  union of: Event
comment: A property connecting a Person who has a biased opinion about the possible outcome of a Future Event, such as a Random/Chance-based Occurrence, because he/she thinks that there is a correlation between this future event and a series of past events.

hasInfluence
type: ObjectProperty
inverse of: influencedBy
domain: Class
  union of: Decision
  union of: Ignore
  union of: Pattern
  union of: Sequence
range: Class
  union of: Decision
  union of: Thing
  union of: PerceptionExperience
  union of: Probability
comment: A property connecting an Entity (Sequence) that affects in different ways another entity (Probability).

hasOutcomeEffect
type: ObjectProperty
inverse of: isOutcomeEffectOf
domain: Sequence
range: Success
comment: A property linking a series of events which Outcome brings to the same effect

isOutcomeEffectOf
type: ObjectProperty
domain: Success
range: Sequence
comment: inverse property of HasOutcomeEffect

isProducedEffectBy
type: ObjectProperty
inverse of: producesOutcomeEffect
domain: Success
range: Event
comment: inverse property of producesOutcomeEffect

producesOutcomeEffect
type: ObjectProperty
domain: Event
range: Success
comment: a property linking an event which Outcome will produce an effect

Success
type: Class
disjoint with: Activity
disjoint with: Event
disjoint with: People
disjoint with: Probability
disjoint with: Sequence
description: Success is the state or condition of meeting a defined range of expectations. It may be viewed as the opposite of failure. The criteria for success depend on context and may be relative to a particular observer or belief system. One person might consider a success what another person considers a failure, particularly in cases of direct competition or a zero-sum game. Similarly, the degree of success or failure in a situation may be differently viewed by distinct observers or participants, such that a situation that one considers to be a success, another might consider to be a failure, a qualified success or a neutral situation. For example, a film that is a commercial failure or even a box-office bomb can go on to receive a cult following, with the initial lack of commercial success even.

FutureEvent
type: Class
subclass of: Event
description: This class represent an event that will happen in the next future.

Next Chance-Based Occurence
type: Class
subclass of: FutureEvent
subclass of: Restriction
  on property: isPartOf
  some values from: Activity
description: This class represent an event that will happen in the next future and it is characterized by chance-based probability.

Activity
type: Class
disjoint with: Event
disjoint with: People
disjoint with: Probability
disjoint with: Sequence
description: This is an abstract frame for durative activities, in which the Agent enters an ongoing state of the Activity, remains in this state for some Duration of Time, and leaves this state either by finishing or by stopping. The Agent's Activity should be intentional. This frame is intended mostly for the inheritance of common FEs, and to provide the frame structure for the beginning, ongoing, finish, or stop stage of an Activity, each of which constitutes a subframe of this frame. This frame should be compared to the Process frame

Event
type: Class
disjoint with: People
disjoint with: Probability
disjoint with: Sequence
description: An Event takes place at a Place and Time. Big earthquakes only happen along plate boundaries. INI The party will take place on Sunday in the all-you-can-eat buffet.

People
type: Class
disjoint with: Probability
disjoint with: Sequence
description: This frame contains general words for Individuals, i.e. humans. The Person is conceived of as independent of other specific individuals with whom they have relationships and independent of their participation in any particular activity. They may have an Age, Descriptor, Origin, Persistent_characteristic, or Ethnicity. A man from Phoenix was shot yesterday. She gave birth to a screaming baby yesterday. I study 16-year-old female adolescents. I am dating an African-American man. She comforted the terrified child. I always thought of him as a stupid man.

Probability
type: Class
disjoint with: Sequence
description: This frame characterizes the likelihood that a Hypothetical_event will happen as a position on a scale of impossible to inevitable. The likelihood can expressed as numerical Odds or a metaphorical representation of the Position on a scale. There's a 20 % chance that you'll succeed. The odds that he'll actually do it are one in a million.

Sequence
type: Class
subclass of: Restriction
  on property: wasGeneratedBy
  some values from: Activity
description: The words in this frame describe entities that occur in some temporally-ordered sequence. The entities thus have some sort of relation between them that might be described by the Relative_time frame. However, at this time, this frame has no Frame Relation with that frame (though this is still under discussion). Additionally, it should be noted that the words in this frame have a metaphorical link to the words in Shape. Describe in detail the sequence of steps taken during an emergency.

Player
type: Class
subclass of: People
description: A class for a player involved in an Activity such as Sport Bets.

Football Team Match Bet
type: NamedIndividual
type: Next Chance-Based Occurence
has parameter: ProbabiltyLevel
produces outcome effect: Winning Bet
comment: An individual for the next chance-based occurence class such as a Footbal Team Match Bet where the probability level is not completely random and can be influenced by different external and/or internal elements of the game itself.

Football Team Match Bet Series
type: NamedIndividual
type: Sequence
was generated by: Sport Bets
has outcome effect: Winning Bet
comment: a sequence of past bets that have the same outcome effect, namely in this case a Winning Bet.

ProbabiltyLevel
type: NamedIndividual
type: Probability
influenced by: Football Team Match Bet Series
has parameter data value: High
has parameter data value: Low
comment: The probability level that an event n the next futur, such a chance-based occurence, can have a specific outcome effect. For example In the Hot Hand fallacy bias if the outcome of previous events series was a Victory then for the player the probability level that the next event will be a Victory is higher. On the contrary in the opposite bias, the stock of luck, the player belevies that is less probable of winning again in the next event because the luck will be less.

Sport Bets
type: NamedIndividual
type: Activity
has participant: Sport Bettor
has part: Football Team Match Bet
comment: An individual representing an Acitvity such as Sport Bets in which is involved a person such as a Bettor.

Sport Bettor
type: NamedIndividual
type: Player
belief: Football Team Match Bet Series
has biased opinion: Football Team Match Bet
comment: A sport Bettor individual who is participating in an Activity such as Sport Bets

Winning Bet
type: NamedIndividual
type: Success
comment: An individual representing the outcome effect of events such as a Football Team Match Bet. In this case a winning bet will be the effect of a winning match.