The Illusion of validity module of the cognitive bias ontology
The “Illusion of Validity” is a cognitive bias where individuals overestimate their ability to accurately interpret and predict outcomes when analyzing a set of data, especially when the data show a consistent pattern
"John, a seasoned investor, relies on his perceived competence and past successes to make investment decisions, often ignoring the influence of unpredictable factors."
Define the relation between an activity and its produced outcome.
Because an activity may engage other participants than the one performing it, engagements are in general considered individual rather than collective, therefore each participants has their own engagement and only some of them will be conscious and/or documented.
Define the participation of an entity in a process.
This property can be used to link a certain NewsProvider with a Media that the NewsProvider ows, e.g. Fox News Channel is owned by Fox Entertainment Group, which also owns other Media (FXX Channel, etc.). This is an universal property, it can be also used in different context (e.g. Ruslana owns a Persian cat).
X <affects> Y. Agent X acts on object Y in such a way that Y changes state or location.
The process of doing something. An action is performed by an agent. An action can be proposed (proposed actions make up a plan), implemented or abandoned, and it has a status and possibly one or more suspension periods.
A causal relation between actions, i.e. one action is the cause of another action. For example, the action of "swimming" is a consequence of "jumping into deep water". The property is transitive.
Knowledge can be defined as awareness of facts or as practical skills, and may also refer to familiarity with objects or situations. Knowledge of facts, also called propositional knowledge, is often defined as true belief that is distinct from opinion or guesswork by virtue of justification.
It assess the perceived validity of an object due to a perception activity
Connects an object to one of its attributes.
John continues to invest based on his overconfident strategy, relying on the Illusion of Validity bias. Despite occasional market fluctuations, he attributes any success to his perceived expertise rather than considering the role of unpredictable factors or external influences.
The investor's perception of validity in his previous knowledge and consequentially his predictions.
The predicting process taken on by the investor to calculate the future possible outcome of his investement.
The previous knowledge on the field which the investor owns and relies on.
The final result given by the investement choices.
The positive outcome John expects to get as result of his predicting process
Words in this frame have to do with a Cognizer believing that some Phenomenon will take place in the future. Some words in the frame (e.g. foresee.v) indicate that the Phenomenon is asserted also to be true, while others do not.
A Current_instance of a certain Type is under discussion. This instance is evaluated as being the same instance or a different instance from a Previous_instance encountered in a Previous_context.
This frame contains general words for Individuals, i.e. humans. The Person is conceived of as independent of other specific individuals with whom they have relationships and independent of their participation in any particular activity.
A Speaker states or makes known a future Eventuality on the basis of some Evidence.