01/03/24 Marco Lamorte The Illusion of validity module of the cognitive bias ontology Illusion of validity ontology The “Illusion of Validity” is a cognitive bias where individuals overestimate their ability to accurately interpret and predict outcomes when analyzing a set of data, especially when the data show a consistent pattern http://ontologydesignpatterns.org/wiki/Submissions:AOS_AGROVOC_Concept_Server_fundation_ontology_model http://ontologydesignpatterns.org/wiki/Submissions:Action http://ontologydesignpatterns.org/wiki/Submissions:An_Ontology_Design_Pattern_for_Activity_Reasoning http://ontologydesignpatterns.org/wiki/Submissions:Experience_%26_Observation http://ontologydesignpatterns.org/wiki/Submissions:NewsReportingEvent http://ontologydesignpatterns.org/wiki/Submissions:Participation "John, a seasoned investor, relies on his perceived competence and past successes to make investment decisions, often ignoring the influence of unpredictable factors." false activitypattern:produces Define the relation between an activity and its produced outcome. term:isEngagedIn Because an activity may engage other participants than the one performing it, engagements are in general considered individual rather than collective, therefore each participants has their own engagement and only some of them will be conscious and/or documented. http://ontologydesignpatterns.org/cp/owl/participation.owl#isParticipantIn Define the participation of an entity in a process. http://semantic.cs.put.poznan.pl/ontologies/newsreportingevent.owl_#owns This property can be used to link a certain NewsProvider with a Media that the NewsProvider ows, e.g. Fox News Channel is owned by Fox Entertainment Group, which also owns other Media (FXX Channel, etc.). This is an universal property, it can be also used in different context (e.g. Ruslana owns a Persian cat). fao:affects X <affects> Y. Agent X acts on object Y in such a way that Y changes state or location. action:Action The process of doing something. An action is performed by an agent. An action can be proposed (proposed actions make up a plan), implemented or abandoned, and it has a status and possibly one or more suspension periods. action:Action Action action:hasConsequence A causal relation between actions, i.e. one action is the cause of another action. For example, the action of "swimming" is a consequence of "jumping into deep water". The property is transitive. dbr:Knowledge Knowledge can be defined as awareness of facts or as practical skills, and may also refer to familiarity with objects or situations. Knowledge of facts, also called propositional knowledge, is often defined as true belief that is distinct from opinion or guesswork by virtue of justification. dbr:Knowledge Knowledge cbo:Outcome Outcome cbo:Outcome The final result of an activity. cbo:PerceivedValidity It assess the perceived validity of an object due to a perception activity cbo:PerceivedValidity Perceived validity cbo:hasAttribute Connects an object to one of its attributes. #Biased_investement John continues to invest based on his overconfident strategy, relying on the Illusion of Validity bias. Despite occasional market fluctuations, he attributes any success to his perceived expertise rather than considering the role of unpredictable factors or external influences. #Expert_investor John, an hypotetical biased investor #Investor_PerceivedValidity The investor's perception of validity in his previous knowledge and consequentially his predictions. #Investor_predicting The predicting process taken on by the investor to calculate the future possible outcome of his investement. #Investorship_knowledge The previous knowledge on the field which the investor owns and relies on. #Negative_outcome The final result given by the investement choices. #Positive_outcome The positive outcome John expects to get as result of his predicting process fs:Expectation Words in this frame have to do with a Cognizer believing that some Phenomenon will take place in the future. Some words in the frame (e.g. foresee.v) indicate that the Phenomenon is asserted also to be true, while others do not. fs:Expectation Expectation fs:Identicality A Current_instance of a certain Type is under discussion. This instance is evaluated as being the same instance or a different instance from a Previous_instance encountered in a Previous_context. fs:Identicality Identicality fs:People This frame contains general words for Individuals, i.e. humans. The Person is conceived of as independent of other specific individuals with whom they have relationships and independent of their participation in any particular activity. fs:People People fs:Predicting A Speaker states or makes known a future Eventuality on the basis of some Evidence. fs:Predicting Predicting