Neglect of Probability Ontology
type: Ontology
created: 27/02/2024
creator: Salvatore Di Marzo
description: Neglect of probability part of the Cognitive Bias Ontology
comment: The neglect of probability bias is a type of cognitive bias that affects how we make decisions, particularly in situations with uncertainty. It boils down to this: a tendency to ignore the probabilities of different outcomes when making decisions, it happens because our brains are complex and sometimes take shortcuts. Considering probabilities takes effort, and sometimes we prioritize other factors like potential rewards or emotional impact. This bias can lead to poor decision-making, especially when dealing with risks and uncertainties. We might overlook likely negative outcomes or get overly fixated on unlikely but dramatic possibilities.
hascomponent: http://ontology.eil.utoronto.ca/icity/ActivitySpecification
hascomponent: http://xmlns.com/foaf/0.1/
hascomponent: https://github.com/corrado877/CognitiveBiasOntologies/tree/main/Pareidolia%20Ontology
hascomponent: https://raw.githubusercontent.com/modellingDH/odp_experience/master/owl/cp_experience.owl.rdfxml
hascomponent: https://w3id.org/affectedBy
hascomponent: https://w3id.org/framester/data/framestercore/
user story: The world whizzed by Amelia in a blur of emails, meetings, and looming deadlines. Each day felt like a sprint, with tasks piling up like dominoes ready to topple into chaos. But Amelia had a secret weapon - procrastination. While others fretted, she'd glide through her mornings, savoring a leisurely coffee, lost in the latest meme video. "There's plenty of time," she'd reassure herself, "the deadline is ages away." But deadlines, like mythical dragons, had a way of sneaking up unexpectedly. One morning, the notification popped up - her major presentation, the one she'd been casually pushing off like a dusty book, was due tomorrow. Panic clawed at her throat. The Improbable Dragon, as she'd named her tendency to underestimate the urgency of tasks, had finally caught her. Frantic typing filled the night, fuelled by cold pizza and desperation. The once manageable presentation morphed into a monster, swallowing her confidence and sleep. By morning, she was a hollow shell, her eyes bloodshot, her voice hoarse. The presentation stumbled, riddled with errors and apologies. The consequences, once improbable, materialized - a lost opportunity, a damaged reputation, and a mountain of work to fix the mess.

inActivity
type: ObjectProperty
domain: Class
  union of: Assessing
  union of: BecomingAware
  union of: Pattern
  union of: People
  union of: PerceptionExperience
range: Class
  union of: Decision
  union of: Activity
comment: What activity/ies are affecting or affected by a certain engagement

isEngagedIn
type: ObjectProperty
domain: People
range: Class
  union of: Action
  union of: MentalProperty
  union of: Activity
  union of: Assessing
  union of: BecomingAware
  union of: Deciding
  union of: Event
  union of: PerceptionExperience
  union of: Predicting
comment: Because an activity may engage other participants than the one performing it, engagements are in general considered individual rather than collective, therefore each participants has their own engagement and only some of them will be conscious and/or documented.

decide
type: ObjectProperty
domain: Thing
range: Ignore
comment: a property that links the cognitive process of deciding how to act after receiving information.

have knowledge
type: ObjectProperty
domain: People
range: Thing
comment: a property that links the cognitive process of storing some information regarding a topic.

influencedBy
type: ObjectProperty
domain: Class
  union of: Decision
  union of: Thing
  union of: PerceptionExperience
  union of: Probability
range: Class
  union of: Decision
  union of: Ignore
  union of: Pattern
  union of: Sequence
comment: A relation between qualities. A quality is influenced by another quality if the value of the latter affects the value of the former.

Decision
type: Class
disjoint with: Thing
disjoint with: Ignore
disjoint with: Assessing
disjoint with: Person
comment: Represents a decision subject to the bias.

Assessing
type: Class
disjoint with: Person
comment: An Assessor examines a Phenomenon to figure out its Value according to some Feature of the Phenomenon. This Value is a factor in determining the acceptability of the Phenomenon. In some cases, a Method (implicitly involving an Assessor) is used to determine the Phenomenon's Value. Each company is then evaluated for their earning potential. CNI From the evidence of the pilot studies the risk of damage to the test subjects was rated too high to continue. CNI He weighed his options carefully.