team_name: ITWW model_name: county_repro model_abbr: ITWW-county_repro model_contributors: - name: Przemyslaw Biecek email: przemyslaw.biecek@gmail.com - name: Viktor Bezborodov email: integral2008-1@mail.ru - name: Marcin Bodych email: bodychmarcin@gmail.com - name: Jan Pablo Burgard email: burgardj@uni-trier.de - name: Stefan Heyder email: stefan.heyder@tu-ilmenau.de - name: Thomas Hotz email: thomas.hotz@tu-ilmenau.de - name: Tyll Krüger email: tyll.krueger@googlemail.com website_url: https://github.com/Stochastik-TU-Ilmenau license: mit team_model_designation: secondary methods: Forecasts of county level incidence based on regional reproduction numbers. team_funding: ECDC data_inputs: RKI, ECDC, Polish patient data, county level incidences by age group, distribution for time to death and proportion of deaths in each age group methods_long: Using county level incidence data we estimate regional reproduction numbers with a small area estimation approach. These estimates are the basis for simulations of future incidences which are then aggregated to the state or national level. Deaths are predicted by age groups and use estimated case fatality ratios.