---
name: prediction-markets-research
description: Research prediction-market odds, order books, price history, and public market-rule context from Polymarket, Kalshi, Metaculus, and DraftKings Predictions. DraftKings routes expose categories, availability maps, and rules, not live quote data. Use when the user asks what a market or forecasting community reports.
---

# Prediction markets research

Pull live and historical odds, order books, and forecast questions from
Polymarket, Kalshi, and Metaculus as normalized JSON — no scraping
market-maker sites or parsing raw order-book blobs.

## When to use this skill

- "What does the market think will happen with <event>?" / "current odds for …"
- "Show me the order book / spread / price history for this market."
- "What are the top trending prediction markets right now?"
- "What's the community forecast (Metaculus) for <question>?"
- Election, macro, sports, or crypto-outcome forecasting research.
- Public DraftKings Predictions categories, regional availability-map entries,
  or settlement-rule links.

## Setup (one-time)

- Get a free Crawlora API key (2,000 credits/mo, no card) at [https://crawlora.net](https://crawlora.net?utm_source=github&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=crawlora-skills).
- Set `CRAWLORA_API_KEY` in the environment before running the helper.
- The helper reads `CRAWLORA_API_KEY` from the environment and sends requests to `https://api.crawlora.net/api/v1`. Missing/invalid key → `401`.

## How it works

1. **Polymarket** — `/polymarket/search` or `/polymarket/events` to find an
   event; `/polymarket/event/{slug}` for detail (nested markets);
   `/polymarket/market/{id}` for one market; then token-level pricing via
   `/polymarket/token/{token_id}/price|midpoint|orderbook|spread|price-history`
   (or the batched `POST /polymarket/tokens/prices` etc. for up to 25 at once).
   `/polymarket/leaderboard` and `/polymarket/dashboards/macro` cover traders
   and macro events.
2. **Kalshi** — `/kalshi/events` / `/kalshi/markets` to browse; `/kalshi/event/{event_ticker}`
   or `/kalshi/market/{ticker}` for detail; `/kalshi/market/{ticker}/history`
   for candlesticks, `/kalshi/market/{ticker}/orderbook` for depth,
   `/kalshi/trades` for recent fills. `/kalshi/historical/*` covers settled
   (closed) markets.
3. **Metaculus** — `/metaculus/questions` to browse; `/metaculus/question/{id}`
   for detail; `/metaculus/question/{id}/forecasts` for the current
   community aggregate, `/forecast-history` for how it moved over time.
4. **DraftKings Predictions** — `/draftkings/predictions/categories` and
   `/draftkings/predictions/availability` describe the public category menu
   and source-reported regional status map; `/draftkings/predictions/rules`
   lists public rulebook and settlement-source links. These endpoints do not
   contain quotes, user location, trade slips, or account data.

Full endpoint list, methods, and params: [`reference/endpoints.md`](reference/endpoints.md).

## Calling the API

```sh
# Polymarket:
scripts/crawlora.sh /polymarket/search q="fed rate cut" | jq '.'
scripts/crawlora.sh /polymarket/event/will-the-fed-cut-rates | jq '.'

# Kalshi:
scripts/crawlora.sh /kalshi/markets | jq '.data'
scripts/crawlora.sh /kalshi/market/INXD-24DEC31-T5000/history | jq '.'

# Metaculus:
scripts/crawlora.sh /metaculus/questions | jq '.data'
scripts/crawlora.sh /metaculus/question/12345/forecasts | jq '.'
# DraftKings Predictions (navigation and rules only):
scripts/crawlora.sh /draftkings/predictions/availability
scripts/crawlora.sh /draftkings/predictions/categories
```

Use `scripts/crawlora.sh` for all requests; it keeps the API key out of command-line arguments.


## Endpoint reference

See [`reference/endpoints.md`](reference/endpoints.md) for every Polymarket,
Kalshi, and Metaculus endpoint this skill uses.

## Examples

- **Cross-platform odds check:** `/polymarket/search` and `/kalshi/markets`
  for the same real-world event, compare implied probabilities.
- **Market momentum:** `/kalshi/market/{ticker}/history` or
  `/polymarket/token/{token_id}/price-history` plotted over time to see how
  sentiment shifted.
- **Forecast vs. market:** `/metaculus/question/{id}/forecasts` (community
  aggregate) alongside the matching Polymarket/Kalshi market price.

## Notes & limits

- **Credits / pay-on-success:** billed only on `2xx`; free tier 2,000 credits/mo.
  Key at [https://crawlora.net](https://crawlora.net?utm_source=github&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=crawlora-skills).
- **Public, credential-free data only** — no trading, no order placement;
  read-only market data. This is not financial advice.
- DraftKings' regional map is a source snapshot, not a legal determination or
  proof of a user's eligibility. Its public routes here have no live market
  prices.
- **Security:** key lives in `CRAWLORA_API_KEY` only — never hardcode, query-param, or commit it.
- Batch endpoints (`/polymarket/tokens/*`) accept up to 25 ids per call —
  chunk larger lists.