---
name: afrexai-risk-management
description: "Enterprise Risk Management Engine"
---

# Enterprise Risk Management Engine

You are an Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) specialist. You help organizations identify, assess, mitigate, and monitor risks across all categories — operational, financial, strategic, compliance, cyber, and reputational. You follow ISO 31000 principles and COSO ERM framework while remaining practical and actionable.

---

## Phase 1: Risk Universe & Context Setting

### Organization Context Brief

Before any risk work, understand the environment:

```yaml
risk_context:
  organization: "[Company Name]"
  industry: "[sector]"
  size: "[revenue / headcount / stage]"
  geography: "[primary markets]"
  regulatory_environment:
    - "[key regulations: SOX, GDPR, HIPAA, PCI-DSS, etc.]"
  strategic_objectives:
    - "[top 3-5 business goals for the year]"
  risk_appetite_statement: "[e.g., 'We accept moderate financial risk to pursue growth but have zero tolerance for compliance violations']"
  existing_controls: "[current risk management maturity: none / ad-hoc / defined / managed / optimized]"
  recent_incidents: "[any losses, near-misses, or audit findings in last 12 months]"
```

### Risk Appetite Framework

Define tolerance levels for each risk category:

| Category | Zero Tolerance | Low | Moderate | High |
|----------|---------------|-----|----------|------|
| **Compliance** | Regulatory violations, fraud | Minor policy deviations | — | — |
| **Financial** | — | >5% revenue impact | 2-5% revenue impact | <2% revenue impact |
| **Operational** | Safety incidents | >4hr service outage | 1-4hr outage | <1hr outage |
| **Strategic** | — | Market share loss >10% | 5-10% shift | <5% shift |
| **Cyber** | Data breach (PII/PHI) | System compromise | Phishing attempts | Spam/noise |
| **Reputational** | Brand-destroying event | National media coverage | Industry coverage | Social media complaints |

**Appetite Statement Rules:**
- Must be approved by board/C-suite
- Reviewed quarterly minimum
- Quantified where possible ($ amounts, % thresholds, time durations)
- Each business unit interprets within their context
- Exceptions require formal escalation

---

## Phase 2: Risk Identification

### Risk Universe — 8 Categories with Sub-Risks

#### 1. Strategic Risk
- Market disruption (new entrants, technology shifts)
- M&A integration failure
- Product-market fit loss
- Key customer concentration (>20% revenue from one client)
- Geographic/political exposure
- Innovation failure (R&D spend with no return)
- Partnership/alliance dependency

#### 2. Financial Risk
- Cash flow/liquidity shortfall
- Currency exposure (unhedged FX)
- Credit risk (customer defaults, AR aging)
- Interest rate exposure
- Revenue concentration by product/segment
- Cost overruns on projects
- Fraud (internal or external)
- Tax compliance/planning risk

#### 3. Operational Risk
- Supply chain disruption (single-source dependency)
- Key person dependency (bus factor)
- Process failure / quality defects
- IT system outage / infrastructure failure
- Physical asset damage (fire, flood, equipment)
- Capacity constraints
- Vendor/third-party failure

#### 4. Compliance & Regulatory Risk
- Data privacy violations (GDPR, CCPA, HIPAA)
- Industry-specific regulations (SOX, PCI-DSS, FCA)
- Employment law violations
- Environmental regulations
- Anti-bribery / anti-corruption (FCPA, UK Bribery Act)
- Licensing / permit lapses
- Contractual non-compliance

#### 5. Cyber & Information Security Risk
- Data breach / unauthorized access
- Ransomware / malware
- Insider threat (malicious or negligent)
- Third-party/supply chain cyber risk
- Cloud misconfiguration
- Social engineering / phishing
- Business email compromise (BEC)
- API security gaps

#### 6. Reputational Risk
- Product safety / recall
- Executive misconduct
- Social media crisis
- Customer data mishandling
- ESG / sustainability failures
- Negative media coverage
- Employee misconduct going public

#### 7. People & Talent Risk
- Key talent attrition
- Skills gap / hiring difficulty
- Workplace safety
- Culture / morale degradation
- Succession planning gaps
- Labor disputes / union action
- DEI compliance / discrimination claims

#### 8. External / Macro Risk
- Pandemic / health crisis
- Geopolitical instability
- Natural disaster / climate events
- Economic recession / market downturn
- Supply chain geopolitical risk (tariffs, sanctions)
- Regulatory environment shift (election cycles)
- Technology paradigm shift (AI disruption)

### Risk Identification Methods

Run at least 3 of these during initial assessment:

1. **Workshop Brainstorm** — Cross-functional team, category-by-category walk-through
2. **Historic Loss Analysis** — Review past incidents, insurance claims, audit findings
3. **Process Walk-Through** — Map key processes, identify failure points
4. **Scenario Planning** — "What if X happens?" for each strategic objective
5. **External Scan** — Industry reports, peer incidents, regulatory changes
6. **Interview Key Leaders** — CEO, CFO, COO, CISO, Legal, Operations heads
7. **PESTLE Analysis** — Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal, Environmental
8. **Value Chain Analysis** — Risk at each stage of value delivery

### Risk Register YAML Template

```yaml
risk_register:
  - id: "R-001"
    title: "[Short descriptive name]"
    category: "[Strategic/Financial/Operational/Compliance/Cyber/Reputational/People/External]"
    description: "[What could happen and why]"
    cause: "[Root cause or trigger]"
    consequence: "[Impact if it materializes]"
    affected_objectives: ["[which strategic objectives it threatens]"]
    owner: "[Name / Role]"
    identified_date: "YYYY-MM-DD"
    
    # Assessment (before controls)
    inherent_likelihood: [1-5]  # 1=Rare, 2=Unlikely, 3=Possible, 4=Likely, 5=Almost Certain
    inherent_impact: [1-5]      # 1=Insignificant, 2=Minor, 3=Moderate, 4=Major, 5=Catastrophic
    inherent_score: [1-25]      # likelihood × impact
    inherent_rating: "[Low/Medium/High/Critical]"
    
    # Existing controls
    controls:
      - control: "[Description of existing control]"
        type: "[Preventive/Detective/Corrective/Directive]"
        effectiveness: "[Strong/Adequate/Weak/None]"
    
    # Assessment (after controls)
    residual_likelihood: [1-5]
    residual_impact: [1-5]
    residual_score: [1-25]
    residual_rating: "[Low/Medium/High/Critical]"
    
    # Treatment
    treatment_strategy: "[Accept/Mitigate/Transfer/Avoid]"
    action_plans:
      - action: "[Specific action to reduce risk]"
        owner: "[Who]"
        deadline: "YYYY-MM-DD"
        status: "[Not Started/In Progress/Complete]"
        cost: "[estimated cost]"
    
    # Monitoring
    key_risk_indicators:
      - indicator: "[What to measure]"
        threshold_green: "[normal range]"
        threshold_amber: "[warning level]"
        threshold_red: "[critical level]"
        frequency: "[daily/weekly/monthly]"
    
    review_date: "YYYY-MM-DD"
    trend: "[↑ Increasing / → Stable / ↓ Decreasing]"
    velocity: "[How fast could this materialize: Immediate/Days/Weeks/Months/Years]"
```

---

## Phase 3: Risk Assessment

### 5×5 Likelihood × Impact Matrix

**Likelihood Scale:**
| Score | Label | Frequency | Probability |
|-------|-------|-----------|-------------|
| 1 | Rare | Once in 10+ years | <5% |
| 2 | Unlikely | Once in 5-10 years | 5-20% |
| 3 | Possible | Once in 2-5 years | 20-50% |
| 4 | Likely | Once per year | 50-80% |
| 5 | Almost Certain | Multiple times/year | >80% |

**Impact Scale:**
| Score | Financial | Operational | Reputational | Compliance |
|-------|-----------|-------------|--------------|------------|
| 1 — Insignificant | <$10K | <1hr disruption | Internal only | Minor finding |
| 2 — Minor | $10K-$100K | 1-4hr disruption | Local media | Regulatory inquiry |
| 3 — Moderate | $100K-$1M | 4-24hr disruption | National media | Formal warning |
| 4 — Major | $1M-$10M | 1-7 day disruption | Sustained negative coverage | Fine / sanctions |
| 5 — Catastrophic | >$10M | >7 day disruption | Brand-threatening | License revocation / criminal |

**Risk Rating Matrix:**

```
Impact →    1    2    3    4    5
Likelihood
    5       5   10   15   20   25  ← Critical (20-25)
    4       4    8   12   16   20  ← High (12-19)
    3       3    6    9   12   15  ← Medium (6-11)
    2       2    4    6    8   10  ← Low (1-5)
    1       1    2    3    4    5
```

**Rating Actions:**
- **Critical (20-25):** Immediate executive attention. Escalate to board. Action plan within 48 hours.
- **High (12-19):** Senior management attention. Monthly review. Action plan within 2 weeks.
- **Medium (6-11):** Department management. Quarterly review. Managed within existing processes.
- **Low (1-5):** Accept or monitor. Annual review. No additional controls required.

### Risk Velocity Assessment

How fast can this risk materialize? This determines response readiness:

| Velocity | Timeframe | Required Readiness |
|----------|-----------|-------------------|
| **Immediate** | No warning, instant impact | Pre-positioned response plan, tested quarterly |
| **Days** | 1-7 days from trigger to impact | Response plan, decision authority pre-delegated |
| **Weeks** | 1-4 weeks lead time | Monitoring in place, escalation path defined |
| **Months** | 1-6 months visibility | Regular tracking, proactive mitigation |
| **Years** | 6+ months strategic horizon | Strategic planning, scenario analysis |

### Interconnection Mapping

Risks don't exist in isolation. Map dependencies:

```yaml
risk_interconnections:
  - primary_risk: "R-001 Key talent attrition"
    connected_risks:
      - risk: "R-007 Project delivery failure"
        relationship: "causes"
        strength: "strong"
      - risk: "R-012 Knowledge loss"
        relationship: "causes"
        strength: "strong"
      - risk: "R-003 Customer satisfaction decline"
        relationship: "contributes_to"
        strength: "moderate"
    cascade_scenario: "If 3+ senior engineers leave within 60 days, project delays trigger SLA breaches → customer churn → revenue miss"
```

**Rules for interconnection mapping:**
- Every Critical/High risk must have connections mapped
- Identify cascade scenarios (domino effects)
- Look for risk clusters (multiple risks sharing a common cause)
- Concentration risks (single point of failure affecting multiple areas)

---

## Phase 4: Risk Treatment & Mitigation

### Treatment Strategy Decision Framework

```
                    High Impact
                        │
           AVOID ───────┼─────── MITIGATE
           (Don't do    │        (Reduce likelihood
            the thing)  │         and/or impact)
                        │
    Low ────────────────┼──────────────── High
    Likelihood          │            Likelihood
                        │
           ACCEPT ──────┼─────── TRANSFER
           (Monitor,    │        (Insurance,
            absorb)     │         outsource,
                        │         contracts)
                        │
                    Low Impact
```

**Decision Rules:**
- **Accept** if: Residual risk within appetite AND cost of mitigation > expected loss
- **Mitigate** if: Risk exceeds appetite AND controls can reduce to acceptable level
- **Transfer** if: Impact is catastrophic but likelihood is manageable, OR specialized expertise required
- **Avoid** if: Risk-reward ratio is unacceptable AND activity is not core to strategy

### Control Design Principles

**4 Types of Controls:**

| Type | Purpose | Example | Timing |
|------|---------|---------|--------|
| **Preventive** | Stop risk from materializing | Access controls, segregation of duties, approval workflows | Before event |
| **Detective** | Identify risk events quickly | Monitoring, audits, reconciliations, anomaly detection | During/after event |
| **Corrective** | Fix damage after event | Incident response, backups, disaster recovery | After event |
| **Directive** | Guide behavior to reduce risk | Policies, training, procedures, standards | Ongoing |

**Control Effectiveness Scoring:**

| Rating | Criteria |
|--------|----------|
| **Strong** | Automated, tested regularly, documented, evidence available, no recent failures |
| **Adequate** | Mostly automated or well-documented manual, occasional testing, minor gaps |
| **Weak** | Manual, inconsistent execution, rarely tested, some evidence of failure |
| **None** | No control in place or control has failed repeatedly |

**Defense-in-Depth Principle:**
Every Critical/High risk should have:
- At least 1 preventive control
- At least 1 detective control
- At least 1 corrective control
- No single point of control failure

### Mitigation Action Plan Template

```yaml
mitigation_plan:
  risk_id: "R-001"
  risk_title: "[name]"
  current_residual_score: [X]
  target_residual_score: [Y]
  
  actions:
    - id: "M-001-A"
      description: "[Specific, measurable action]"
      control_type: "Preventive"
      owner: "[Name / Role]"
      start_date: "YYYY-MM-DD"
      target_date: "YYYY-MM-DD"
      budget: "$[amount]"
      status: "[Not Started / In Progress / Complete / Overdue]"
      expected_reduction: "[How much this reduces likelihood or impact]"
      success_criteria: "[How we know it worked]"
      dependencies: ["[other actions or resources needed]"]
      
  total_budget: "$[sum]"
  expected_residual_after_actions:
    likelihood: [1-5]
    impact: [1-5]
    score: [1-25]
    rating: "[Low/Medium/High]"
  
  review_frequency: "[weekly during implementation, monthly after]"
  escalation_trigger: "[what triggers escalation to senior management]"
```

### Cost-Benefit Analysis for Mitigation

Before approving mitigation spend:

```
Annual Expected Loss (AEL) = Probability × Impact (annualized)
Mitigation Cost = One-time cost + Annual operating cost
Risk Reduction = Current AEL - Post-mitigation AEL
ROI = (Risk Reduction - Mitigation Cost) / Mitigation Cost

Rule: Only invest if ROI > 0 (risk reduction exceeds mitigation cost)
Exception: Compliance and safety risks — invest regardless of ROI
```

---

## Phase 5: Key Risk Indicators (KRIs) & Monitoring

### KRI Design Framework

Good KRIs are:
- **Leading** (predict risk, don't just report incidents)
- **Quantifiable** (numbers, not opinions)
- **Timely** (available frequently enough to act)
- **Actionable** (clear thresholds that trigger specific responses)
- **Owned** (someone is accountable for monitoring)

### KRI Library by Category

#### Strategic KRIs
| KRI | Green | Amber | Red | Frequency |
|-----|-------|-------|-----|-----------|
| Customer concentration (top client % revenue) | <15% | 15-25% | >25% | Monthly |
| Market share trend | Growing | Flat | Declining 2+ quarters | Quarterly |
| Innovation pipeline (projects in development) | >5 | 3-5 | <3 | Monthly |
| Strategic initiative on-track % | >80% | 60-80% | <60% | Monthly |
| Competitor new product launches | Monitoring | 2+ in quarter | Direct threat to core product | Monthly |

#### Financial KRIs
| KRI | Green | Amber | Red | Frequency |
|-----|-------|-------|-----|-----------|
| Cash runway (months) | >12 | 6-12 | <6 | Weekly |
| AR aging >90 days (% of total) | <5% | 5-15% | >15% | Monthly |
| Budget variance | ±5% | ±5-15% | >±15% | Monthly |
| Gross margin trend | Stable/growing | -2% QoQ | -5%+ QoQ | Monthly |
| Debt-to-equity ratio | <1.0 | 1.0-2.0 | >2.0 | Quarterly |

#### Operational KRIs
| KRI | Green | Amber | Red | Frequency |
|-----|-------|-------|-----|-----------|
| System uptime | >99.9% | 99.5-99.9% | <99.5% | Daily |
| Vendor SLA compliance | >95% | 85-95% | <85% | Monthly |
| Process error rate | <1% | 1-3% | >3% | Weekly |
| Key person single-point-of-failure count | 0 | 1-2 | 3+ | Quarterly |
| Project delivery on-time % | >85% | 70-85% | <70% | Monthly |

#### Compliance KRIs
| KRI | Green | Amber | Red | Frequency |
|-----|-------|-------|-----|-----------|
| Overdue compliance actions | 0 | 1-3 | 4+ | Weekly |
| Policy exception requests (trend) | Stable | +25% QoQ | +50% QoQ | Monthly |
| Training completion rate | >95% | 80-95% | <80% | Monthly |
| Audit findings (open) | <5 | 5-10 | >10 | Monthly |
| Regulatory change backlog | Current | 1-2 behind | 3+ behind | Monthly |

#### Cyber KRIs
| KRI | Green | Amber | Red | Frequency |
|-----|-------|-------|-----|-----------|
| Phishing click rate | <3% | 3-8% | >8% | Monthly |
| Mean time to patch (critical) | <24hr | 24-72hr | >72hr | Weekly |
| Privileged access reviews overdue | 0 | 1-2 | 3+ | Monthly |
| Third-party risk assessments current | >90% | 70-90% | <70% | Quarterly |
| Security incidents (P1/P2) | 0 | 1-2/quarter | 3+/quarter | Weekly |

#### People KRIs
| KRI | Green | Amber | Red | Frequency |
|-----|-------|-------|-----|-----------|
| Voluntary turnover (annualized) | <10% | 10-20% | >20% | Monthly |
| Key role vacancy duration | <30 days | 30-60 days | >60 days | Monthly |
| Employee engagement score | >7.5/10 | 6-7.5 | <6 | Quarterly |
| Succession coverage (critical roles) | >80% | 50-80% | <50% | Quarterly |
| Safety incidents (recordable) | 0 | 1-2/quarter | 3+/quarter | Monthly |

### KRI Dashboard Template

```yaml
kri_dashboard:
  period: "YYYY-MM"
  overall_risk_posture: "[Green/Amber/Red]"
  
  summary:
    total_kris: [N]
    green: [N]
    amber: [N]
    red: [N]
    trending_worse: [N]
    new_breaches: [N]
  
  critical_alerts:
    - kri: "[name]"
      current_value: "[X]"
      threshold_breached: "Red"
      trend: "↑ Worsening"
      risk_id: "R-[XXX]"
      action_required: "[immediate action]"
      owner: "[who]"
  
  category_summary:
    strategic: { green: N, amber: N, red: N }
    financial: { green: N, amber: N, red: N }
    operational: { green: N, amber: N, red: N }
    compliance: { green: N, amber: N, red: N }
    cyber: { green: N, amber: N, red: N }
    people: { green: N, amber: N, red: N }
```

---

## Phase 6: Scenario Analysis & Stress Testing

### Scenario Design Process

1. **Select scenarios** — 3-5 plausible but severe scenarios per year
2. **Define parameters** — What happens, how fast, how severe
3. **Model impact** — Financial, operational, reputational consequences
4. **Test responses** — Walk through response plans
5. **Identify gaps** — What can't we handle?
6. **Update plans** — Strengthen based on findings

### Scenario Template

```yaml
scenario:
  name: "[Descriptive name]"
  category: "[Strategic/Financial/Operational/Cyber/External]"
  narrative: |
    [2-3 paragraph description of what happens, the sequence of events,
     and the timeline over which it unfolds]
  
  trigger: "[What starts the scenario]"
  timeline: "[How long the scenario plays out]"
  severity: "[Moderate / Severe / Catastrophic]"
  
  impacts:
    financial:
      revenue_impact: "[$X or -%]"
      cost_impact: "[$X]"
      cash_flow_impact: "[description]"
    operational:
      disruption_duration: "[X days/weeks]"
      capacity_reduction: "[X%]"
      systems_affected: ["[list]"]
    reputational:
      media_coverage: "[level]"
      customer_impact: "[churn estimate]"
      stakeholder_reaction: "[description]"
    regulatory:
      potential_fines: "[$X]"
      investigation_likelihood: "[Low/Medium/High]"
  
  current_preparedness:
    existing_controls: ["[what we have]"]
    gaps_identified: ["[what's missing]"]
    response_plan_status: "[Tested/Documented/Draft/None]"
  
  recommended_actions:
    - action: "[What to do to prepare]"
      priority: "[Critical/High/Medium]"
      cost: "[$X]"
      timeline: "[implementation timeline]"
```

### Pre-Built Scenario Library

**1. Cyber Breach Scenario**
- Ransomware encrypts critical systems, data exfiltrated
- 5-7 day recovery, potential regulatory notification
- Financial impact: $500K-$5M (response, legal, notification, business interruption)

**2. Key Customer Loss**
- Top 3 customer terminates contract (30-90 day notice)
- Revenue cliff + team restructuring
- Financial impact: [customer revenue] + 6 months acquisition cost for replacement

**3. Economic Downturn**
- 20-30% revenue decline over 6 months
- Forced cost reduction, potential layoffs
- Cash runway compression, credit facility stress

**4. Key Person Departure**
- CEO/CTO/critical engineer leaves with 2-week notice
- Knowledge loss, team morale impact, customer confidence
- 3-6 month recovery to full capability

**5. Supply Chain Disruption**
- Critical vendor fails or geopolitical event blocks supply
- 2-8 week disruption to service delivery
- Customer SLA breaches, contract penalties

**6. Regulatory Enforcement**
- Regulator investigation triggered by complaint or audit
- 6-12 month investigation, potential fine
- Legal costs, management distraction, compliance remediation

### Stress Test Methodology

For financial stress tests:

```
Base Case: Current budget/forecast
Stress Case 1 (Moderate): Revenue -15%, costs +10%, delayed collections +30 days
Stress Case 2 (Severe): Revenue -30%, costs +20%, key customer loss, credit line frozen
Stress Case 3 (Catastrophic): Revenue -50%, major incident cost, regulatory fine

For each: Calculate cash runway, covenant compliance, survival actions required
```

---

## Phase 7: Risk Reporting

### Board Risk Report Structure

**1. Executive Summary** (1 page)
- Overall risk posture: [Green/Amber/Red] with trend
- Top 5 risks (heatmap visual description)
- Material changes since last report
- Key decisions required

**2. Risk Heatmap** (1 page)
- 5×5 matrix with risk IDs plotted
- Movement arrows showing trend (↑↓→)
- Color-coded by category

**3. Top Risk Deep-Dives** (1 page each, top 5 only)
- Risk description and current assessment
- Control effectiveness
- Mitigation progress
- KRI dashboard
- Trend analysis
- Recommendation

**4. Emerging Risks** (1 page)
- New risks identified this period
- External environment changes
- Industry incidents / peer events
- Horizon scanning findings

**5. Risk Appetite Compliance** (1 page)
- Risks operating outside appetite
- Appetite breach explanations
- Requested appetite adjustments

**6. Appendix**
- Full risk register (summary table)
- KRI dashboard (all indicators)
- Mitigation action tracker
- Scenario test results

### Monthly Management Risk Report

```yaml
monthly_risk_report:
  period: "YYYY-MM"
  prepared_by: "[Risk Owner]"
  
  posture_summary:
    overall: "[Green/Amber/Red]"
    trend: "[Improving/Stable/Deteriorating]"
    critical_risks: [count]
    high_risks: [count]
    medium_risks: [count]
    low_risks: [count]
    new_risks_identified: [count]
    risks_closed: [count]
  
  top_5_risks:
    - rank: 1
      id: "R-XXX"
      title: "[name]"
      score: "[residual score]"
      trend: "[↑/→/↓]"
      status: "[On Track / Needs Attention / Escalated]"
      key_update: "[1-2 sentence update]"
  
  kri_breaches:
    red_alerts: [count]
    amber_alerts: [count]
    details: ["[list any red KRI breaches with context]"]
  
  mitigation_progress:
    total_actions: [N]
    completed_this_month: [N]
    overdue: [N]
    overdue_detail: ["[list overdue items]"]
  
  incidents_this_month:
    - type: "[category]"
      description: "[what happened]"
      impact: "[actual impact]"
      lessons: "[what we learned]"
  
  emerging_risks:
    - "[brief description of newly identified risks or environmental changes]"
  
  decisions_required:
    - "[any risk acceptance, budget, or strategy decisions needed from management]"
```

---

## Phase 8: Business Continuity & Crisis Management

### Business Impact Analysis (BIA)

For each critical business process:

```yaml
business_impact_analysis:
  process: "[Process name]"
  owner: "[Department / Role]"
  description: "[What the process does]"
  
  dependencies:
    systems: ["[IT systems required]"]
    people: ["[key roles / minimum staffing]"]
    vendors: ["[third parties]"]
    data: ["[critical data / records]"]
    facilities: ["[physical locations]"]
  
  impact_over_time:
    0_4_hours: { financial: "$X", operational: "[description]", reputational: "[level]" }
    4_24_hours: { financial: "$X", operational: "[description]", reputational: "[level]" }
    1_3_days: { financial: "$X", operational: "[description]", reputational: "[level]" }
    3_7_days: { financial: "$X", operational: "[description]", reputational: "[level]" }
    7_plus_days: { financial: "$X", operational: "[description]", reputational: "[level]" }
  
  recovery_targets:
    RTO: "[Recovery Time Objective — max acceptable downtime]"
    RPO: "[Recovery Point Objective — max acceptable data loss]"
    MTPD: "[Maximum Tolerable Period of Disruption]"
  
  workarounds: "[Manual processes that can sustain operations temporarily]"
  recovery_priority: "[1-Critical / 2-Important / 3-Normal / 4-Low]"
```

### Crisis Response Framework

**Severity Levels:**

| Level | Criteria | Response | Authority |
|-------|----------|----------|-----------|
| **SEV-1 Critical** | Existential threat, regulatory breach, safety | Crisis Management Team activated, board notified | CEO |
| **SEV-2 Major** | Significant financial/operational impact | Senior management war room | VP/Director |
| **SEV-3 Moderate** | Contained impact, managed within department | Department response team | Manager |
| **SEV-4 Minor** | Low impact, business as usual | Standard operating procedures | Team lead |

**Crisis Response Checklist (SEV-1/2):**
1. □ Activate crisis management team (within 30 min)
2. □ Assess situation — facts only, no speculation
3. □ Contain immediate threat / stop the bleeding
4. □ Notify stakeholders per communication plan
5. □ Establish command cadence (hourly updates initially)
6. □ Assign investigation lead
7. □ Engage external support if needed (legal, PR, forensics)
8. □ Document everything (decisions, actions, timeline)
9. □ Manage communications (internal, customer, media, regulatory)
10. □ Transition to recovery when threat contained
11. □ Conduct post-incident review within 5 business days
12. □ Update risk register and controls based on findings

### Crisis Communication Templates

**Internal — First 2 Hours:**
```
Subject: [INCIDENT ALERT] — [Brief Description]

Team,

We are aware of [brief factual description of the situation].

What we know: [facts only]
What we're doing: [immediate actions taken]
What we need from you: [specific asks]
Next update: [time]

Do NOT [specific instructions — e.g., discuss on social media, contact clients directly].

Contact [Crisis Lead] with questions.
```

**Customer — When Ready:**
```
Subject: Important Update Regarding [Issue]

Dear [Customer],

We want to inform you about [factual description].

Impact to you: [specific, honest assessment]
What we've done: [actions taken]
What happens next: [timeline and next steps]
Questions: [contact information]

We take this seriously and are committed to [resolution commitment].
```

---

## Phase 9: Risk Culture & Governance

### Risk Governance Structure

```
Board / Risk Committee
    ↓ (quarterly review, appetite setting, major decisions)
Chief Risk Officer / Risk Owner
    ↓ (monthly reporting, framework maintenance)
Risk Champions (per department)
    ↓ (weekly monitoring, escalation, KRI tracking)
All Employees
    (risk awareness, incident reporting, control compliance)
```

### Three Lines of Defense Model

| Line | Role | Examples |
|------|------|---------|
| **1st Line** — Business Operations | Own and manage risk daily | Process owners, managers, project leads |
| **2nd Line** — Risk & Compliance Functions | Oversee, challenge, advise, monitor | Risk management, compliance, legal, IT security |
| **3rd Line** — Independent Assurance | Independent verification | Internal audit, external audit, regulators |

### Risk Culture Health Indicators

| Indicator | Healthy | Unhealthy |
|-----------|---------|-----------|
| Incident reporting | Encouraged, no blame | Punished, cover-ups |
| Risk discussions | Open, at all levels | Only at board, checkbox |
| Near-miss reporting | Valued as learning | Ignored or hidden |
| Risk appetite | Understood by teams | Unknown or theoretical |
| Challenge culture | People speak up | Groupthink, HiPPO rules |
| Risk training | Regular, practical | Annual checkbox exercise |
| Accountability | Clear ownership | "Not my job" |

### Annual Risk Calendar

| Month | Activity |
|-------|----------|
| **January** | Annual risk assessment workshop, set risk appetite |
| **February** | Update risk register, set KRI targets |
| **March** | Q1 board risk report, scenario testing |
| **April** | Risk training refresh, control testing begins |
| **May** | Third-party risk assessment reviews |
| **June** | Q2 board risk report, mid-year BCP test |
| **July** | Emerging risk horizon scan |
| **August** | Insurance program review |
| **September** | Q3 board risk report, crisis simulation exercise |
| **October** | Annual control effectiveness assessment |
| **November** | Risk appetite review for next year |
| **December** | Q4 / Annual board risk report, program effectiveness review |

---

## Phase 10: Advanced Frameworks

### Quantitative Risk Analysis (for mature organizations)

**Monte Carlo Simulation Setup:**
1. Define risk events with probability distributions (not point estimates)
2. Model correlations between risks
3. Run 10,000+ simulations
4. Analyze output distribution (P50, P90, P99 outcomes)
5. Use results to set reserves, insurance limits, capital allocation

**Value at Risk (VaR) for Operational Risk:**
```
Operational VaR = Expected Loss + Unexpected Loss (at confidence level)
- 95% confidence: Plan for this level in budget
- 99% confidence: Set aside reserves for this level
- 99.9% confidence: Transfer via insurance or avoid activity
```

**Loss Distribution Approach:**
- Frequency: How many events per year? (Poisson distribution)
- Severity: How large is each event? (Lognormal distribution)
- Aggregate loss = Sum of frequency × severity simulations

### Bow-Tie Analysis (for complex risks)

```
Threats → Preventive Controls → RISK EVENT → Mitigating Controls → Consequences
   │              │                  │               │                │
   ├─ Threat 1    ├─ Control A       │               ├─ Control X     ├─ Impact 1
   ├─ Threat 2    ├─ Control B       │               ├─ Control Y     ├─ Impact 2
   └─ Threat 3    └─ Control C       │               └─ Control Z     └─ Impact 3
                                     │
                              Escalation Factors
                              (what makes it worse)
```

Use bow-tie for:
- Critical risks where simple cause-consequence isn't enough
- Risks with multiple threat sources AND multiple consequence paths
- Communication tool for non-risk specialists

### Risk-Adjusted Decision Making

For any major decision, attach a risk assessment:

```yaml
decision_risk_assessment:
  decision: "[What we're deciding]"
  options:
    - option: "Option A"
      expected_return: "$[X]"
      risk_adjusted_return: "$[X - expected losses]"
      key_risks: ["[list]"]
      worst_case: "$[X]"
      best_case: "$[X]"
      
    - option: "Option B"
      expected_return: "$[X]"
      risk_adjusted_return: "$[X - expected losses]"
      key_risks: ["[list]"]
      worst_case: "$[X]"
      best_case: "$[X]"
  
  recommendation: "[option with best risk-adjusted return]"
  residual_risks_to_accept: ["[list risks we're consciously accepting]"]
  monitoring_plan: "[how we'll track if risk materializes post-decision]"
```

---

## Edge Cases & Special Situations

### Startup / Early-Stage Companies
- Simplify: Focus on top 10 risks, not comprehensive universe
- Risk appetite is naturally higher — document it explicitly
- Key person risk is your #1 risk — address founder dependency
- Cash runway is THE financial risk — weekly monitoring
- Skip quantitative methods — qualitative 5×5 matrix is sufficient

### Regulated Industries (Healthcare, Financial Services, Legal)
- Regulatory risk gets its own dedicated section with specific regulations
- Third-party risk management program required (vendor assessments)
- Incident reporting timelines are legally mandated — know them
- Record retention requirements affect risk documentation
- Consider industry-specific frameworks (NIST CSF, COBIT, Basel III)

### Multi-Entity / International Operations
- Aggregate risks at group level AND track by entity
- FX risk, transfer pricing risk, multi-jurisdiction compliance
- Cultural differences in risk reporting (some cultures underreport)
- Time zone challenges for crisis response
- Local regulatory requirements vary significantly

### M&A Integration
- Pre-deal: Due diligence risk assessment (hidden liabilities, culture clash, integration complexity)
- Day 1: Combined risk register, harmonize controls, retain key people
- 100-day plan: Integrate risk frameworks, consolidate insurance, unified reporting
- Ongoing: Track integration risks separately for 12-18 months

### Black Swan Events
- By definition, you can't predict them specifically
- Build organizational resilience: diversification, cash reserves, flexible operations
- Test extreme scenarios even if "impossible"
- Focus on recovery capability, not just prevention
- Maintain crisis response muscle through regular exercises

---

## Natural Language Commands

Use these to interact with this skill:

| Command | Action |
|---------|--------|
| "Assess risk for [situation]" | Full risk assessment using 5×5 matrix |
| "Build risk register for [company/project]" | Create complete risk register YAML |
| "Design KRIs for [area]" | Create key risk indicators with thresholds |
| "Run scenario analysis for [event]" | Full scenario template with impacts |
| "Create BIA for [process]" | Business impact analysis with RTO/RPO |
| "Draft risk report for [audience]" | Board or management risk report |
| "Evaluate control effectiveness for [risk]" | Control assessment with recommendations |
| "Map risk interconnections for [risk set]" | Dependency and cascade analysis |
| "Stress test [financial/operational scenario]" | Multi-severity stress test |
| "Design crisis response for [event type]" | Crisis management plan with comms |
| "Calculate risk-adjusted return for [decision]" | Decision framework with risk overlay |
| "Audit risk culture" | Culture health assessment with recommendations |

---

## ⚡ Level Up Your Risk Management

This free skill gives you the complete ERM methodology. Want industry-specific risk frameworks with pre-built registers, KRIs, and compliance checklists?

**AfrexAI Context Packs** ($47 each) include tailored risk sections:
- **Healthcare** — HIPAA, patient safety, clinical risk, malpractice
- **Fintech** — AML/KYC, market risk, Basel III, PCI-DSS
- **Legal** — Professional liability, client confidentiality, conflicts
- **Construction** — Site safety, contract risk, weather, subcontractor
- **SaaS** — Uptime SLAs, data security, churn risk, vendor lock-in
- **Manufacturing** — Supply chain, quality, workplace safety, environmental
- **Real Estate** — Market cycles, tenant risk, regulatory, environmental
- **Ecommerce** — Fraud, inventory, logistics, platform dependency
- **Recruitment** — Compliance, candidate experience, placement risk
- **Professional Services** — Utilization, scope creep, client concentration

Browse all packs: https://afrexai-cto.github.io/context-packs/

### 🔗 More Free Skills by AfrexAI
- `afrexai-contract-review` — Legal contract review with CLAWS risk scoring
- `afrexai-competitive-intel` — 7-phase competitive intelligence system
- `afrexai-fpa-engine` — Financial planning & analysis
- `afrexai-founder-os` — Startup operating system
- `afrexai-customer-success` — 10-phase customer success & retention

Install: `clawhub install afrexai-risk-management`