team_name: Frankfurt Institute for Advanced Studies & Forschungszentrum Jülich
model_name: Core Model, Germany
model_abbr: FIAS_FZJ-Epi1Ger
model_contributors: Maria V. Barbarossa <barbarossa@fias.uni-frankfurt.de>,
  \  Jan Fuhrmann <j.fuhrmann@fz-juelich.de>,
  \  Stefan Krieg <s.krieg@fz-juelich.de>,
  \  Jan H. Meinke <j.meinke@fz-juelich.de>
website_url: https://www.fz-juelich.de/SharedDocs/Meldungen/IAS/JSC/DE/2021/2021-01-covid-19.html;jsessionid=F4D5FB4027E871A6F4C2FCAF0F08FC35
license: cc-by-4.0
team_model_designation: primary
methods: An extended SEIR model with additional compartments for undetected cases
data_inputs: ECDC, confirmed cases, reported fatalities, population
citation: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.18.20069955
methods_long: "An extended SEIR model with additional compartments for undetected cases is fit
  \  using multiple segments to the available data for reported cases and then to reported \
  \ deaths. The parametrization of the last fit is used to forecast incidental and cumulative \
  \ deaths. Confidence intervals are determined using Monte Carlo sampling of the parameter space."