team_name: Frankfurt Institute for Advanced Studies & Forschungszentrum Jülich model_name: Core Model, Germany model_abbr: FIAS_FZJ-Epi1Ger model_contributors: Maria V. Barbarossa , \ Jan Fuhrmann , \ Stefan Krieg , \ Jan H. Meinke website_url: https://www.fz-juelich.de/SharedDocs/Meldungen/IAS/JSC/DE/2021/2021-01-covid-19.html;jsessionid=F4D5FB4027E871A6F4C2FCAF0F08FC35 license: cc-by-4.0 team_model_designation: primary methods: An extended SEIR model with additional compartments for undetected cases data_inputs: ECDC, confirmed cases, reported fatalities, population citation: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.18.20069955 methods_long: "An extended SEIR model with additional compartments for undetected cases is fit \ using multiple segments to the available data for reported cases and then to reported \ \ deaths. The parametrization of the last fit is used to forecast incidental and cumulative \ \ deaths. Confidence intervals are determined using Monte Carlo sampling of the parameter space."