team_name: IEM Health model_name: CovidProjections model_abbr: IEM_Health-CovidProject model_contributors: Brad Suchoski (IEM) , Steve Stage (IEM) , Heidi Gurung (IEM) , Sid Baccam (IEM) website_url: https://iem.com/ license: cc-by-4.0 team_model_designation: primary methods: SEIR model projections for daily incident confirmed COVID cases and deaths by using AI to fit actual cases observed. data_inputs: JHU reported daily confirmed cases and deaths methods_long: "IEM is currently using an AI model to fit data from various sources \ \ and project new cases of COVID-19. We do not assume the average number of secondary \ \ infections (R-value) stays the same over time. Our model makes projections for \ \ over 375 individual counties in the U.S., all 50 states, the District of Columbia, \ \ 3 U.S. territories, and 32 European countries. For each jurisdiction, our model runs 4 million simulations \ \ to find the best R value that would allow the SEIR model to fit the data for confirmed \ \ cases. Our model assumes that the R value changes quite rapidly over time due to changes \ \ in human behavior. Our model uses a sliding window to fit the data and find the best \ \ R values for each of the windows."