team_name: ILM
model_name: EKF
model_abbr: ILM-EKF
model_contributors: Stefan Heyder <stefan.heyder@tu-ilmenau.de>, Thomas Hotz <thomas.hotz@tu-ilmenau.de>
website_url: https://github.com/Stochastik-TU-Ilmenau
license: cc-by-4.0
team_model_designation: primary
methods: Extended Kalman filter based on reproduction equation
data_inputs: JHU
methods_long: "We use the reproduction equation to obtain a state space model whose states \
  \ comprise incidences, the current reproduction number, the generation time distribution, \
  \ as well as fraction of deaths by delay. An extended Kalman filter is used to fit this model \
  \ and obtain forecasts. Quantiles for the latter are obtained from a log-normal distribution \
  \ with mean and variance given by the prediction steps."