team_name: ILM model_name: EKF model_abbr: ILM-EKF model_contributors: Stefan Heyder , Thomas Hotz website_url: https://github.com/Stochastik-TU-Ilmenau license: cc-by-4.0 team_model_designation: primary methods: Extended Kalman filter based on reproduction equation data_inputs: JHU methods_long: "We use the reproduction equation to obtain a state space model whose states \ \ comprise incidences, the current reproduction number, the generation time distribution, \ \ as well as fraction of deaths by delay. An extended Kalman filter is used to fit this model \ \ and obtain forecasts. Quantiles for the latter are obtained from a log-normal distribution \ \ with mean and variance given by the prediction steps."