team_name: Frankfurt Institute for Advanced Studies & Forschungszentrum Jülich model_name: Core Model, Germany model_abbr: FIAS_FZJ-Epi1Ger model_contributors: - name: Maria V. Barbarossa email: barbarossa@fias.uni-frankfurt.de - name: Jan Fuhrmann email: j.fuhrmann@fz-juelich.de - name: Stefan Krieg email: s.krieg@fz-juelich.de - name: Jan H. Meinke email: j.meinke@fz-juelich.de website_url: https://www.fz-juelich.de/SharedDocs/Meldungen/IAS/JSC/DE/2021/2021-01-covid-19.html;jsessionid=F4D5FB4027E871A6F4C2FCAF0F08FC35 license: cc-by-4.0 team_model_designation: primary methods: An extended SEIR model with additional compartments for undetected cases data_inputs: ECDC, confirmed cases, reported fatalities, population citation: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.18.20069955 methods_long: An extended SEIR model with additional compartments for undetected cases is fit using multiple segments to the available data for reported cases and then to reported deaths. The parametrization of the last fit is used to forecast incidental and cumulative deaths. Confidence intervals are determined using Monte Carlo sampling of the parameter space.