team_name: University of Virginia, Biocomplexity COVID-19 Response Team model_name: Ensemble model model_abbr: UVA-Ensemble model_contributors: - name: Aniruddha Adiga affiliation: UVA email: aniruddha@virginia.edu - name: Lijing Wang affiliation: UVA - name: Srinivasan Venkatramanan - name: Akhil Sai Peddireddy affiliation: UVA - name: Benjamin Hurt affiliation: UVA - name: Przemyslaw Porebski affiliation: UVA - name: Bryan Lewis - name: Madhav Marathe affiliation: UVA - name: Jiangzhou Chen - name: Anil Vullikanti website_url: https://biocomplexity.virginia.edu/ license: cc-by-4.0 team_model_designation: primary methods: An ensemble of multiple methods such as auto-regressive (AR)models with exogenous variables, Long short-term memory (lSTM) models,Kalman filter and PatchSim (an SEIR model). methods_long: This is a national-level (specific to DE, PL, GB in this round) multi-method model forecasting the new confirmed cases. Multiple methods include AR methods, an LSTM model(not included in this round),Kalman filters, ARIMA(not included in this round), and PatchSim(not included in this round), variant of SEIR(not included in this round). Multimethod forecasts are combined using Bayesian model averaging.