team_name: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control
model_name: Norrsken Piecewise Linear Bayesian Model
model_abbr: ECDC-norrsken_green
model_contributors:
  - name: ECDC Mathematical Modelling Team
    affiliation: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control
    email: modellingh@ecdc.europa.eu
data_inputs: ECDC ERVISS
website_url: https://github.com/EU-ECDC/ECDC-Mathematical-Models
license: cc-by-4.0
team_model_designation: primary
methods: "A Bayesian piece-wise log-linear model fit."
methods_long: "Model consists of 1) scaling of the data (convert to log-scale), 2) assigning data points into groups such that neighbouring data points belong to the same group, and simultaneously in Stan 3) fitting piece-wise intercept-slope models in each group, 4) regularizing the difference between neighbouring slopes to be close to 0, 5) generating a future slope based on the last slope plus fitted noise."