team_name: Frankfurt Institute for Advanced Studies & Forschungszentrum Jülich
model_name: Core Model, Germany
model_abbr: FIAS_FZJ-Epi1Ger
model_contributors:
  - name: Maria V. Barbarossa
    email: barbarossa@fias.uni-frankfurt.de
  - name: Jan Fuhrmann
    email: j.fuhrmann@fz-juelich.de
  - name: Stefan Krieg
    email: s.krieg@fz-juelich.de
  - name: Jan H. Meinke
    email: j.meinke@fz-juelich.de
website_url: https://www.fz-juelich.de/SharedDocs/Meldungen/IAS/JSC/DE/2021/2021-01-covid-19.html;jsessionid=F4D5FB4027E871A6F4C2FCAF0F08FC35
license: cc-by-4.0
team_model_designation: primary
methods: An extended SEIR model with additional compartments for undetected cases
data_inputs: ECDC, confirmed cases, reported fatalities, population
citation: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.18.20069955
methods_long: An extended SEIR model with additional compartments for undetected cases
  is fit   using multiple segments to the available data for reported cases and then
  to reported  deaths. The parametrization of the last fit is used to forecast incidental
  and cumulative  deaths. Confidence intervals are determined using Monte Carlo sampling
  of the parameter space.