team_name: IEM Health
model_name: CovidProjections
model_abbr: IEM_Health-CovidProject
model_contributors:
  - name: Brad Suchoski
    affiliation: IEM
    email: bradley.suchoski@iem.com
  - name: Steve Stage
    affiliation: IEM
    email: steve.stage@iem.com
  - name: Heidi Gurung
    affiliation: IEM
    email: heidi.gurung@iem.com
  - name: Sid Baccam
    affiliation: IEM
    email: sid.baccam@iem.com
website_url: https://iem.com/
license: cc-by-4.0
team_model_designation: primary
methods: SEIR model projections for daily incident confirmed COVID cases and deaths
  by using AI to fit actual cases observed.
data_inputs: JHU reported daily confirmed cases and deaths
methods_long: IEM is currently using an AI model to fit data from various sources  and
  project new cases of COVID-19. We do not assume the average number of secondary  infections
  (R-value) stays the same over time. Our model makes projections for  over 375 individual
  counties in the U.S., all 50 states, the District of Columbia,  3 U.S. territories,
  and 32 European countries. For each jurisdiction, our model runs 4 million simulations  to
  find the best R value that would allow the SEIR model to fit the data for confirmed  cases.
  Our model assumes that the R value changes quite rapidly over time due to changes  in
  human behavior. Our model uses a sliding window to fit the data and find the best  R
  values for each of the windows.