team_name: ITWW
model_name: county_repro
model_abbr: ITWW-county_repro
model_contributors:
  - name: Przemyslaw Biecek
    email: przemyslaw.biecek@gmail.com
  - name: Viktor Bezborodov
    email: integral2008-1@mail.ru
  - name: Marcin Bodych
    email: bodychmarcin@gmail.com
  - name: Jan Pablo Burgard
    email: burgardj@uni-trier.de
  - name: Stefan Heyder
    email: stefan.heyder@tu-ilmenau.de
  - name: Thomas Hotz
    email: thomas.hotz@tu-ilmenau.de
  - name: Tyll Krüger
    email: tyll.krueger@googlemail.com
website_url: https://github.com/Stochastik-TU-Ilmenau
license: mit
team_model_designation: secondary
methods: Forecasts of county level incidence based on regional reproduction numbers.
team_funding: ECDC
data_inputs: RKI, ECDC, Polish patient data, county level incidences by age group,
  distribution for time to death and proportion of deaths in each age group
methods_long: Using county level incidence data we estimate regional reproduction
  numbers  with a small area estimation approach. These estimates are the basis for  simulations
  of future incidences which are then aggregated to the state or  national level.
  Deaths are predicted by age groups and use estimated case fatality  ratios.