team_name: University of Virginia, Biocomplexity COVID-19 Response Team
model_name: Ensemble model
model_abbr: UVA-Ensemble
model_contributors:
  - name: Aniruddha Adiga
    affiliation: UVA
    email: aniruddha@virginia.edu
  - name: Lijing Wang
    affiliation: UVA
  - name: Srinivasan Venkatramanan
  - name: Akhil Sai Peddireddy
    affiliation: UVA
  - name: Benjamin Hurt
    affiliation: UVA
  - name: Przemyslaw Porebski
    affiliation: UVA
  - name: Bryan Lewis
  - name: Madhav Marathe
    affiliation: UVA
  - name: Jiangzhou Chen
  - name: Anil Vullikanti
website_url: https://biocomplexity.virginia.edu/
license: cc-by-4.0
team_model_designation: primary
methods: An ensemble of multiple methods such as auto-regressive (AR)models with exogenous
  variables, Long short-term memory (lSTM) models,Kalman filter and PatchSim (an SEIR
  model).
methods_long: This is a national-level (specific to DE, PL, GB in this round) multi-method
  model forecasting the new confirmed cases. Multiple methods include AR methods,
  an LSTM model(not included in this round),Kalman filters, ARIMA(not included in
  this round), and PatchSim(not included in this round), variant of SEIR(not included
  in this round). Multimethod forecasts are combined using Bayesian model averaging.