team_name: Fraunhofer Institute for Industrial Mathematics ITWM
model_name: ITWM
model_abbr: itwm-dSEIR
model_contributors:
  - name: Jan Mohring
    email: jan.mohring@itwm.fraunhofer.de
  - name: Neele Leithäuser
  - name: Michael Helmling
website_url: https://www.itwm.fraunhofer.de/
license: mit
team_model_designation: primary
methods: Integral equation model based on age cohorts taking into account vaccination and testing. The parameters are adjusted to the counted cases and deaths.
team_funding: Fraunhofer Gesellschaft, Land Rheinland-Pfalz
data_inputs: RKI
citation: https://www.itwm.fraunhofer.de/content/dam/itwm/de/documents/PressemitteilungenPDF/2020/20200429_Bericht_Prognosemodelle-f%C3%BCr-die-Coronapandemie.pdf
methods_long: Fraunhofer-ITWM's predictions are based on a cohort model that groups
  people according to four age groups and according to the status infected, detected
  and successfully vaccinated. The dynamics of the epidemic are described by integral
  equations. In particular, we assume an infectious period with fixed onset, end and
  infectivity. The most important parameters are contact rates between age groups,
  detection rates and times, and death rates and times. They are adjusted to the historical
  data of the RKI. For forecasts, the simulation is continued with the parameters
  determined for the last week. In principle, the forecast quality could still be
  improved by anticipating the effects of events such as the end of public holidays
  on contact and detection rates. However, this is not yet done in the automatic submissions.
  All calculations use automatic differentiation. This speeds up parameter adjustment
  and allows for error estimates. The latter are determined by comparing counted and
  simulated cases and by matching the empirical standard deviations with the standard
  deviations predicted by the calculated sensitivities. The model is described in
  detail in https://www.itwm.fraunhofer.de/de/presse-publikationen/presseinformationen/2021/2021-06-22_Dritte_Welle_Starker-Effekt-von-Schnelltests-an-Schulen.html