{
    "forecast_due_date": "2025-03-02",
    "question_set": "2025-03-02-llm.json",
    "questions": [
        {
            "id": "p2ojWwlaPa8aCNUOeX8P",
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "Will Roger Clemens be admitted to the MLB Hall of Fame during his lifetime?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-roger-clemens-be-admitted-to-t.",
            "background": "Resolves YES if Roger Clemens is admitted to the MLB Hall of Fame during his lifetime. Resolves NO if not.\n\n(https://www.youtube.com/embed/YQDvxwST65k)",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2022-08-08T15:25:56+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2040-08-16T03:59:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-roger-clemens-be-admitted-to-t",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.493950894700504",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "0587u5Mk7ng2NaOkgCu1",
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "Will there be a televised match between a robot and a top-10 human tennis player by 2035?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/Paul/will-there-be-a-televised-match-bet.",
            "background": "Top-10 players to be determined by https://www.espn.com/tennis/rankings, or other official rankings list.\n\nA \"televised match\" consists of either a conventional TV broadcast or a youtube video with over 100k views.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2022-11-23T23:30:26+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2035-01-01T01:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://manifold.markets/Paul/will-there-be-a-televised-match-bet",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.524614116780025",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "tR3mF1fVM2kOInQOMCRI",
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "Will New Orleans get a Major League Baseball team before 2030?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/jks/will-new-orleans-get-a-major-league.",
            "background": "This market resolves YES after the MLB officially announces that a team will be based in New Orleans, Louisiana, and that team plays a home game. Only the official announcement needs to occur before 1 January 2030; the home game may occur after 1 January 2030.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-04-19T02:36:53+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2030-01-01T07:01:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://manifold.markets/jks/will-new-orleans-get-a-major-league",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.169068980606496",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "WjigEUrHmJzDR7P5XXi0",
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "Will the NFL Media unit be under Disney's control by the end of 2025?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/10thOfficial/will-the-nfl-media-unit-be-under-di.",
            "background": "",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-01-17T17:31:16+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2026-01-01T04:59:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://manifold.markets/10thOfficial/will-the-nfl-media-unit-be-under-di",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.555360853991112",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "bDKnrDuAgrnxEcIzQ0a1",
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "AI commentary for an entire golf game by 2030 end?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/_deleted_/ai-commentary-for-an-entire-golf-ga-129663c258e1.",
            "background": "[tweet]\nand \n\nhttps://www.golfdigest.com/story/masters-2023-artifical-technology\n\nThe game should be aired, the commentary should be live, not retrospectively added\n",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-04-08T21:01:42+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2030-12-31T06:29:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://manifold.markets/_deleted_/ai-commentary-for-an-entire-golf-ga-129663c258e1",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.788429218027861",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "IWT36MaBUPU5dtiCygxo",
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "Will a legal sub two-hour marathon be run before December 31, 2025.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/MaxKammerman/will-a-legal-sub-twohour-marathon-b.",
            "background": "Resolution criteria:\n\nConfirmation by World Athletics (formerly IAAF). ",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-11-13T12:20:59+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2026-01-01T04:59:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://manifold.markets/MaxKammerman/will-a-legal-sub-twohour-marathon-b",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.46847040831054804",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "qZplxHCdwy91PJWO2dXh",
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "Will LeBron James pass Chris Paul in career assists?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/dominic/will-lebron-james-pass-chris-paul-i.",
            "background": "Currently, LeBron James has 10,247 assists and Chris Paul has 11,194 assists, meaning that LeBron is 947 assists behind. https://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/ast_career.html\n\nBoth are still currently active players, and both have around 200 assists recorded so far this season. They are approximately the same age. \n\nThis market will be resolved positively if LeBron is ahead of Chris Paul in career assists, and Chris Paul is retired. It will resolve negatively if Chris Paul is ahead of LeBron, and LeBron is retired. If LeBron passes Paul, and then gets passed back, and then they both retire, it would still resolve negatively.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-01-08T04:43:47+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2029-01-01T07:59:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://manifold.markets/dominic/will-lebron-james-pass-chris-paul-i",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.07446219085443201",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "tqYwjkBMeKg6NIp20onX",
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "Does Victor Wembanyama win NBA MVP by 2030",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/Wieneron/does-victor-wembanyama-win-nba-mvp.",
            "background": "The greatest prospect since Kareem is about to enter the league.  Will he dominate? How soon?",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-04-19T16:50:35+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2030-12-31T23:59:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://manifold.markets/Wieneron/does-victor-wembanyama-win-nba-mvp",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.7345076830133781",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "4fPq6PiY40SUrZGL7cb5",
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "Will Magnus Carlsen compete for the FIDE Classical World Chess Championship before 2033?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/HarrisonLucas/will-magnus-carlsen-compete-for-the.",
            "background": "This question resolves as YES if Magnus Carlsen, the Classical World Chess Champion as of 2022, participates either in: \n\n(1) An event, such as a candidates tournament, which is primarily intended to select the next contender for the FIDE Classical World Chess Championship.\n\n(2) Or Carlsen otherwise is a challenger for the FIDE Classical World Chess Championship.\n\nCriteria and clarifications. \n\nIf Carlsen competes in a tournament or tournaments which are qualification events for a candidates tournament, then that does not count as competing for the world championship. For example, if winning first place in the Sinquefield Cup earns the winner a spot in the candidates tournament, then participating in the Sinquefield Cup does not count as competing for the world championship. But if Carlsen wins first place at the Sinquefield Cup and opts to participate in the candidates tournament, then this question will resolve as YES. The Sinquefield Cup does not count as a world championship competition because its chief reason for existing is not to serve as a WCC selection event.\n\nThe official World Classical Chess Championship is the WCC contest administered by FIDE (or FIDE's successor if it should cease to exist as the main governing body of international chess competitions). Under these terms, Fischer's last match against Spassky and Kasparov's championships after the Kasparov-Short competition do not count as FIDE Classical World Chess Championships. ",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2022-10-01T01:45:00+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2032-12-31T16:01:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://manifold.markets/HarrisonLucas/will-magnus-carlsen-compete-for-the",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.15013416305301902",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "x0N5kcbmFRaaxlj49kzO",
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/MarlonK/will-china-attempt-to-invade-taiwan.",
            "background": "This market will resolve \"yes\" if there is a Chinese military attack with the intention to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027.\n\nThis question is answered \"No\" if there is:\n\nno military conflict between the two parties\n\na limited military conflict without triggering a major war\n\nOn the one hand, this time span approximately reaches the maximum forecast range (~<5 years), as Philip E. Tetlock in his book Superforecasting: the art and science of prediction. Moreover, 2027 is the year in which, as frequently reported, China wants to seek military capabilities to successfully invade Taiwan without saying that it will act accordingly.\n\n\"[...] Admiral John Aquilino, says China wants to finish modernising its armed forces by 2027. The timeline is shrinking, he told the Senate in March.\n\nhttps://www.economist.com/china/2022/09/01/a-weak-china-may-be-more-warlike-than-a-strong-one\n\nThe year Davidson sees as the potential time horizon for a Chinese attack, 2027, is the centenary of the People\u2019s Liberation Army. In November 2020, the Chinese Communist party said it wanted to \u201censure that the 100-year military building goal is achieved by 2027\u201d, called for faster military modernisation and reiterated the goal of making the Chinese military fit for networked, \u201cintelligentised\u201d warfare. Although those are stock phrases China has used before, the Pentagon calls 2027 a \u201cnew milestone\u201d. \u201cIf realised, the PLA\u2019s 2027 modernisation goals could provide Beijing with more credible military options in a Taiwan contingency,\u201d it said in its annual report on the Chinese military last year. Some analysts doubt Davidson\u2019s date. But one year on from his testimony, government and military officials in both Taipei and Washington say the window from now to 2027 is a genuine threat.\n\n[...]\nOne person familiar with the administration\u2019s assessment of the threat to Taiwan says there is general agreement that China is aiming to have developed the necessary capabilities to attack by 2027, but argues that is very distinct from the question of intent or action.\n\nhttps://www.ft.com/content/0850eb67-1700-47c0-9dbf-3395b4e905fd",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2022-10-05T13:22:49+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2027-12-31T22:59:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://manifold.markets/MarlonK/will-china-attempt-to-invade-taiwan",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.25387607650487504",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "dcgscdEUc0",
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "Will The Russia-Ukraine War End Within 90 days of Trump Taking Office? [see description]",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/will-trump-end-the-ukraine-war-with.",
            "background": "This market resolves YES if:\n\nAn armistice, ceasefire, or negotiated settlement is announced by both Ukraine and Russia regarding the ongoing war in Ukraine at any point between the Associated Press calling the election for Donald Trump, and April 19, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nTo count toward the resolution of this market, an armistice, ceasefire, and/or negotiated settlement must be indicative of at least the temporary end of the Ukraine-Russia military conflict, must pertain to all theaters of military conflict between the two countries, and be declared through official channels by both countries. The specific date that such an agreement will take effect is not relevant to the resolution of this market. The only requirement is that the agreement must be announced within this market's specified timeframe.\n\n\nTo count toward the resolution of this market, an armistice, ceasefire, and/or negotiated settlement must be indicative of at least the temporary end of the Ukraine-Russia military conflict, must pertain to all theaters of military conflict between the two countries, and be declared through official channels by both countries.\n\nSee also Polymarket's market.\n\nSee also:\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/Bayesian/what-will-happen-during-trumps-seco?play=true)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Bayesian/will-trump-end-the-israelhamas-war?play=true)Update 2025-07-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Comprehensive Ceasefire: A ceasefire that means 'nobody can fight at all for the next week' would count as a temporary end to the conflict.\n\nLocalized Ceasefire: A ceasefire that means 'no fighting in this little area but everywhere else is fine' would not count.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-11-06T18:17:32+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-04-21T03:59:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/will-trump-end-the-ukraine-war-with",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.254332216419599",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "Da8HD0uQIKR9M9L0Ajmq",
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "Will Drake be found guilty of a crime before the end of 2028?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-drake-be-found-guilty-of-a-cri.",
            "background": "Must be charged indicted and found guilty of at least one crime even if it is not the original one he is charged with\n\n@/strutheo/will-drake-be-formally-charged-with ",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-05-04T16:34:30+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2029-01-01T04:59:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-drake-be-found-guilty-of-a-cri",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.213895847610544",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "0A8xESzefvrCpd9RHEJf",
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "Will Ukraine join NATO before Family Guy ends?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-ukraine-join-nato-before-famil.",
            "background": "",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-03-07T19:59:30+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2101-01-01T04:59:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-ukraine-join-nato-before-famil",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.455696834648098",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "biXq0Tl6I185ivohSgoV",
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "Will Kizaru betray/defect the Marines?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/BoxFangWP/will-kizaru-betraydefect-the-marine.",
            "background": "",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-09-03T02:19:43+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-10-31T10:25:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://manifold.markets/BoxFangWP/will-kizaru-betraydefect-the-marine",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.6556909236732571",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "wENpa5mETtrCnBYJKl5t",
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-china-launch-a-fullscale-invas.",
            "background": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10880/china-to-invade-taiwan-before-2030/",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2022-05-24T01:01:22+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2030-01-01T04:59:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-china-launch-a-fullscale-invas",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.328916279287777",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "WApsfsjdZXrGDA1OPLs5",
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "Will there be a robot uprising by 2035?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/Ophiuchus/will-there-be-a-robot-uprising-by-2.",
            "background": "(Inspired by 2004\u2019s \u201cI, Robot\u201d starring Will Smith.)\n\nWill something resembling a robot uprising (as seen in the film) occur by EOY 2035?\n\nFor the purposes of this market I am loosening the resolution criteria a bit more than what literally occurs in the movie\u2014the \u201cuprising\u201d can happen in just one city, humans do not necessarily need to die or be seriously injured, and an AGI does not need to be the mastermind of the rebellion. For example, if some crazy mad haxx0r managed to seize control of all Tesla vehicles within a certain city and have the cars drive themselves outside of city limits for a full day while city infrastructure was being reprogrammed by him (or something) that would count as a \u201cyes.\u201d \n\nEssentially:\n\n1) Widespread disruption due to automata failing to fulfill their normal tasks\n\n2) Disruptions cover at least one major metropolitan area\n\n3) Disruptions are due to intent from either AGI or a malicious human (internal idiocy would not count e.g. Elon Musk deciding to do a little trolling in DC for a week)\n\n4) Disruptions in automata go on for at least 24 hours\n\n5) The actions of the automata are not recognized as being directly to the material benefit of either their owners and/or human society at large: this means that only one condition here needs to be satisfied. \n\nExamples:\n\n5a) a robot uprising may occur against the owners\u2019 short-term interests (they stop doing the laundry without permission or something) in favor of humanity\u2019s long-term interests (they work together to save the last key species in an ecosystem essential for biosphere regulation).\n\n5b) a robot uprising may occur in the owners\u2019 short-term interests but counter to those of humanity as a whole, I.e. a small group of wealthy robot owners command their bots to destroy any and all assets of unionized workers employed in their factories.\n\n5c) a robot uprising may occur wherein agricultural robots act against owners\u2019 short-term interests by setting crops on fire (destroying profits) and humanity\u2019s long-term interests (prolonged hunger/shortages due to reduced agricultural output).\n\nAny of the above three scenarios would satisfy condition #5, but conditions #1-4 must also be satisfied to resolve as a \u201cyes.\u201d\n\nMovie for context:\n\n(https://www.youtube.com/embed/7Dlo-VB0-HI?si=avgO-jZTUPj0WCsy)",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-12-21T22:57:09+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2036-01-01T06:59:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://manifold.markets/Ophiuchus/will-there-be-a-robot-uprising-by-2",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.095092206156259",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "RiB3ECnJ48CXPeRVKKu7",
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "Will Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/chrisjbillington/will-ukraine-win-the-russoukrainian.",
            "background": "This market will resolve YES if and when Wikipedia's English page on the Russo-Ukrainian War (or the nearest equivalent if that page no longer exists) lists in its infobox \"Result: Ukrainian victory\", and I am satisfied that this is not part of an edit war.\n\nIt will also resolve YES if the result describes the victor as some coalition of which Ukraine is a part, or describes the outcome in terms of the defeated side being Russia or some coalition of which Russia is a part.\n\nAny other \"result\" after the war is no longer described by Wikipedia as \"ongoing\" will cause the market to resolve NO, including hedged statements like \"Partial Ukrainian victory\" or \"Ukrainian victory with territorial losses\".\n\nResolution only depends on the first, non-dotpoint statement in the \"result\" section of the infobox. If hedging/concessions follow the intitial statement as dotpoints, or if they appear in the body of the article, this is not relevant to resolution. If the \"result\" comprises only dotpoints, the market will resolve NO.\n\nThe closing date for this market will be extended as needed until the market can resolve.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-01-10T07:15:40+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-12-31T23:59:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://manifold.markets/chrisjbillington/will-ukraine-win-the-russoukrainian",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.14",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "cb4s0TO4eh4exBuFyldp",
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "Will the first person to walk on Mars make it back to Earth?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-the-first-person-to-walk-on-ma-112ceb82478e.",
            "background": "If there are multiple people in the first mission, any of them getting back to Earth will resolve YES. Must still be alive.\n\nMarket open until it happens \n\nSee: @/strutheo/will-elon-musk-be-the-first-person ",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-03-26T16:52:28+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2040-01-02T04:59:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-the-first-person-to-walk-on-ma-112ceb82478e",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.732485544687271",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "28RJ23fKDFMr4Mo8YQ4f",
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "Will human narration for audiobooks become mostly unnecessary before 2026?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/FranklinBaldo/will-human-narration-for-audiobooks.",
            "background": "[tweet]",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-10-16T01:53:43+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2026-01-01T03:59:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://manifold.markets/FranklinBaldo/will-human-narration-for-audiobooks",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.7500000000000001",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "hh2bXhwKDTioZ7KtGKfC",
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "Will we get AGI before 2030?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2030.",
            "background": "Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being. Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can. It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience.\n\nResolves as YES if such a system is created and publicly announced before January 1st 2030\n\nHere are markets with the same criteria:\n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/did-agi-emerge-in-2023 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2025 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2026-3d9bfaa96a61 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2027-d7b5f2b00ace \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2028-ff560f9e9346 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2029-ef1c187271ed \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2030 (this question)\n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2031 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2032 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2033 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2034 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2033-34ec8e1d00fd \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2036 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2037 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2038 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2039 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2040 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2041 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2042@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2043 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2044 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2045 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2046 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2047 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2048 \n\nRelated markets:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2027 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2028 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2029 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2030 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2031 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2032 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2033 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2034 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2035 \n\nOther questions for 2030:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-217e4b895daa \n\n@/RemNi/will-earth-have-a-space-elevator-be-292c3a01b029 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-dd5dc0576ff4 \n\n@/RemNi/will-vladimir-putin-be-the-leader-o-52c0e8d8ea7f \n\n@/RemNi/will-xi-jinping-be-the-leader-of-ch-e48b02725ad9 \n\n@/RemNi/will-kim-jong-un-be-the-leader-of-n-32f2cbfe20ce@/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor \n\n@/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-mars-before-20-b78c73592440 \n\n@/RemNi/will-the-dancing-plague-return-befo-d5d68a482594 \n\nSolar system exploration questions:\n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-v-4a5c4940b285@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-l \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-m-76d02d43aa2c \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-j-d94ab8bbb580 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-s-78e59fa4805f \n\n@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-u-b7061eeb1c8c \n\n@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-n-80f53d888d58 \n\nOther points of reference for AGI:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-vladimir-put \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-xi-jinping-s \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent-549ed4a31a05 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-room \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-discover \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-fusio \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-1m-humanoid ",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-12-07T22:20:23+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2030-03-01T22:59:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2030",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.608328724109747",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "cE1pnjaMDDaOF16V14Y2",
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "Will Google Chrome be the most popular browser at the end of 2025?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-google-chrome-remain-the-most-d638290c2b33.",
            "background": "Resolution according to the \"Usage share of all browsers\" table in this wikipedia entry:\n\nhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Usage_share_of_web_browsers\n\nRelated market:\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/AmmonLam/will-google-chrome-remain-the-most-157ad71d2da0)",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2022-12-28T05:27:18+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2026-01-01T04:59:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-google-chrome-remain-the-most-d638290c2b33",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.9628204529004871",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "YREnvVjBXi5qQFCQhzSv",
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "In 2028, will at least 350,000 (1/1000) Americans be talking at least monthly to an AI therapist or coach?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-at-least-350000-11000.",
            "background": "I will try to find estimates of how many people are doing this in order to resolve it, but no guarantees.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-02-20T22:55:39+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2028-01-02T07:59:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-at-least-350000-11000",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.7643144691493491",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "Q64BBTJSHWQfhovq5bnA",
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-a-reliable-and-general-househo.",
            "background": "The development of general-purpose robots capable of performing household chores has been a long-standing goal in the field of robotics. Such a robot would need to be versatile, adaptable, and capable of handling a wide range of tasks and environments commonly found in American homes. Achieving this level of capability remains a significant challenge.\n\nWill a general household robot capable of performing household chores to a high level of reliability be developed before January 1st, 2030?\n\nResolution Criteria:\n\nThis question will resolve to \"YES\" if, before January 1st, 2030, a general household robot is developed anywhere in the world and has been publicly and credibly documented to have:\n\nDemonstrated the ability to autonomously navigate and operate within a variety of residential environments, including:\n\na. Identifying and avoiding obstacles, such as furniture and pets. \nb. Maneuvering through doorways, hallways, and multi-level spaces. \nc. Adapting to different floor types and surface conditions (e.g., carpet, tile, hardwood). \nd. Recognizing and safely handling fragile objects, such as glassware or delicate appliances.\n\nExhibited proficiency in performing a comprehensive range of standard household chores, including at least 5 of these complete chores:\n\na. Cleaning tasks, such as vacuuming, sweeping, mopping, dusting, and tidying up clutter. \nb. Laundry tasks, including sorting, washing, drying, folding, ironing, and putting away clothes. \nc. Dishwashing tasks, like loading and unloading a dishwasher, or washing, drying, and putting away dishes by hand. \nd. Cooking tasks, such as meal planning, ingredient preparation, cooking, and serving. \ne. Maintaining indoor plants, including watering, pruning, and repotting. \nf. Basic pet care, such as feeding, grooming, and cleaning up after pets.\n\nShown the ability to adapt to user preferences and instructions, including:\n\na. Learning and adjusting to individual household routines and schedules. \nb. Following specific instructions regarding cleaning methods, food preparation, or pet care. \nc. Recognizing and responding to verbal and non-verbal cues from household members.\n\nDemonstrated a high level of reliability and safety while performing these tasks, with:\n\na. Consistently high-quality results that meet or exceed the performance of most humans performing the same tasks, within 500% of the average time it takes humans to perform these tasks.\nb. A low rate of errors, accidents, or damages to the home or its contents. More specificially, it is required that, when given full instructions, the robot can fail no more than 5% of the time on average while completing a designated chore. A fail counts as any error that would require human intervention to fix, as otherwise the chore would not be completed to even a minimum level of satisfaction.\nc. The ability to recognize and avoid potentially dangerous situations, such as electrical hazards or fire risks.\n\nThe development must be accompanied by independent reviews, testimonials, or high-quality case studies documenting the robot's performance in real-world residential settings, demonstrating its ability to perform tasks consistently and effectively, with a high level of satisfaction among users.\n\nI will use my discretion when resolving this question, possibly in consultation with experts, to ensure that the criteria are met and that the general household robot is indeed capable of performing standard household chores to a high level of reliability.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-04-27T19:21:22+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2030-01-02T07:59:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-a-reliable-and-general-househo",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.6581893039782231",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "AaZr2KnQYHGRVHzvKoHa",
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "Was synthetic video data generated and used in training Sora?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/m2/was-synthetic-data-generated-and-us.",
            "background": "Was synthetic video data generated for training Sora, eg large scale clips from Unreal Engine as suggested by this tweet. It does not count if there happens to be synthetic data in the training data. This will resolve yes if the consensus is large scale synthetic data generation was used for Sora.\n\nIf there is no clear consensus, I will resolve it based on my judgement using any material released by OpenAI.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-02-16T11:40:20+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-12-15T21:59:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://manifold.markets/m2/was-synthetic-data-generated-and-us",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.413647755252235",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "LPxYV8cUXZOwTUe5ufrj",
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/MP/will-a-large-language-models-beat-a.",
            "background": "If a large language models beats a super grandmaster (Classic elo of above 2,700) while playing blind chess by 2028, this market resolves to YES.\n\nI will ignore fun games, at my discretion. (Say a game where Hiraku loses to ChatGPT because he played the Bongcloud)\n\nSome clarification (28th Mar 2023): This market grew fast with a unclear description. My idea is to check whether a general intelligence can play chess, without being created specifically for doing so (like humans aren't chess playing machines). Some previous comments I did.\n\n1- To decide whether a given program is a LLM, I'll rely in the media and the nomenclature the creators give to it. If they choose to call it a LLM or some term that is related, I'll consider. Alternatively, a model that markets itself as a chess engine (or is called as such by the mainstream media) is unlikely to be qualified as a large language model.\n\n\n2- The model can write as much as it want to reason about the best move. But it can't have external help beyond what is already in the weights of the model. For example, it can't access a chess engine or a chess game database. \n\nI won't bet on this market and I will refund anyone who feels betrayed by this new description and had open bets by 28th Mar 2023. This market will require judgement.\n\nUpdate 2025-21-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - LLM identification: A program must be recognized by reputable media outlets (e.g., The Verge) as a Large Language Model (LLM) to qualify for this market.\n\nSelf-designation insufficient: Simply labeling a program as an LLM without external media recognition does not qualify it as an LLM for resolution purposes.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-02-13T16:17:14+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2029-01-01T02:59:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://manifold.markets/MP/will-a-large-language-models-beat-a",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.6427865200632591",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "HQObM8ZeuU0YQ3HUdGZ2",
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "Will we get AGI before 2028?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2028-ff560f9e9346.",
            "background": "Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being. Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can. It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience.\n\nResolves as YES if such a system is created and publicly announced before January 1st 2028\n\nHere are markets with the same criteria:\n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/did-agi-emerge-in-2023 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2025 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2026-3d9bfaa96a61 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2027-d7b5f2b00ace \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2028-ff560f9e9346 (this question)\n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2029-ef1c187271ed \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2030 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2031 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2032 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2033 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2034 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2033-34ec8e1d00fd \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2036 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2037 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2038 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2039 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2040 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2041@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2042 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2043 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2044 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2045 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2046 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2047 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2048 \n\nRelated markets:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2027 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2028 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2029 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2030 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2031 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2032 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2033 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2034 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2035 \n\nOther questions for 2028:\n\n@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-l-069166147734 \n\n@/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-again-onto-the-5dd99d5a1e48@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-5553c437e8a4 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-3ccf49dbe194 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-f5a1947c172a \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-7e534a91d188@/RemNi/will-the-dancing-plague-return-befo-0434665d77eb \n\n@/RemNi/will-1m-humanoid-robots-be-manufact-a408a64f3756 \n\nOther points of reference for AGI:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-vladimir-put \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-xi-jinping-s \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent-549ed4a31a05 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-room \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-discover \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-fusio \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-1m-humanoid ",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-12-08T19:32:47+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2028-03-03T22:59:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2028-ff560f9e9346",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.467269336365398",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "0XWiAR0EbPj9dU0qNyIP",
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "Will there be a premier league game broadcasted with AI commentators by 2027?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/_deleted_/will-there-be-a-premier-league-game.",
            "background": "Doesn't have to be completely. Should be greater than 5 minutes of commentary to resolve YES.\n\nPL football game.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-04-08T20:55:02+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2027-12-31T18:29:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://manifold.markets/_deleted_/will-there-be-a-premier-league-game",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.228200339449728",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "G3mFASghFttmIxkNVU7n",
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "If Leonardo DiCaprio has a girlfriend after Vittoria Ceretti, will she be less than half DiCaprio's age at the time?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/strutheo/if-leonardo-dicaprio-has-a-girlfrie.",
            "background": "",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-03-10T07:11:27+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2051-01-01T04:59:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://manifold.markets/strutheo/if-leonardo-dicaprio-has-a-girlfrie",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.677531310347337",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "AtLFLzDlSERmVcSdUapy",
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "Will the upcoming Minecraft movie make over a billion dollars at the worldwide box office?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/asmith/will-the-upcoming-minecraft-movie-m.",
            "background": "Not counting re-releases. Will push back resolve date if necessary.\n\nEdit: if by some chance this movie doesn't get a wide release in theaters... I will resolve N/A.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-12-17T21:03:14+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2030-12-25T07:59:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://manifold.markets/asmith/will-the-upcoming-minecraft-movie-m",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.199506396107916",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "shjGGdUWayk0YI1n8Z7A",
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "Will a Monopoly movie release by end of August 2026?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/Conflux/will-a-monopoly-movie-release-by-en.",
            "background": "https://www.ign.com/articles/monopoly-movie-back-on-the-board-after-lionsgate-acquires-eone-from-hasbro\n\nTo count for this market, it must be branded as the official (Hasbro-endorsed) Monopoly movie, tell a Monopoly-universe story (not like a documentary about Monopoly tournaments - something like Barbie or The Lego Movie), and be released in the next three years and change (by end of August 2026).\n\nGeneral policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.\u00a0 \u00a0\n\n[link preview]",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-08-04T04:16:25+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2026-09-01T06:59:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://manifold.markets/Conflux/will-a-monopoly-movie-release-by-en",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.554365549975801",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "ijfFvS9a12mU7Ahqq3JI",
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/Shump/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener-e7f99acbe19d.",
            "background": "Same as the main market but the AI must only be at the level of the worst filmmakers, rather than the best. So instead of a Marvel movie level of quality, think The Room level of quality. That's the yardstick that I will be using. Alternatively it can be any other well-known bad movie, like Birdemic or Who Killed Captain Alex. It doesn't need to have the \"so bad it's good\" qualities of The Room, but it needs to have a minimally coherent plot structure and cinematography. It must not be too painful for humans to watch the entire thing, and it needs to have the basics like characters say and do things that advance the plot, at least usually.\n\nMain market:\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener)",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-01-28T04:34:11+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2028-01-02T07:59:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://manifold.markets/Shump/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener-e7f99acbe19d",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.659999999999999",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "QVCzHBisAcKNfHYEAB4G",
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "Will GTA VI get delayed again?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/LiquidIsPerson3/will-gta-vi-get-delayed-again.",
            "background": "GTA",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-02-11T00:04:13+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2026-01-01T04:59:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://manifold.markets/LiquidIsPerson3/will-gta-vi-get-delayed-again",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.49797053660613705",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "YrQ6jZbI1xhpY2TyQvJ9",
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "Will the next Agent 007 (after \"No Time To Die\") be black?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/Predictor/will-the-next-agent-007-after-no-ti.",
            "background": "With Daniel Craig saying goodbye to his role as James Bond, many fans of 007 are asking for changes for the franchise, so it can stay relevant in current times. One of such changes might have to do with who plays the British secret agent in future films of the franchise.\n\nIf 007 is confirmed to be played by a black actor or actress in the first 007 movie to be released after \"No Time To Die\", this market will be resolved as \"Yes\".\n\n\nClose date updated to 2023-12-31 11:59 pm",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2022-10-13T23:33:20+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2026-01-01T04:59:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://manifold.markets/Predictor/will-the-next-agent-007-after-no-ti",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.055925086622781006",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "sis542tw6o",
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "Will there be consensus on who Dwarkesh's \"biggest guest yet\" was, before Q3 2025? (Resolves to poll)",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/will-there-be-consensus-on-who-dwar.",
            "background": "For context, see this tweet.\n\nWithin the next few months, I'm going to be releasing an episode with by far my biggest guest yet.\n\nIf you're interesting in sponsoring it, shoot me an email at sponsor@dwarkeshpatel.com\n\nSee also @/Ziddletwix/will-manifold-agree-that-dwarkeshs \n\nI think it's not clear that these markets will be unambiguous and satisfactorily resolved, therefore I created this one.\n\nResolution\n\n\u200c\nA few separate possibilities to resolution here\n\n1) See: Who is Dwarkesh's upcoming \"biggest guest yet\"? Once that market resolves, I will close this one and run a poll for one week, using the [NAME] that it resolved to.\n\nThe phrasing will be something along the lines of \"Do you agree that [NAME] was the person Dwarkesh alluded  to with the 'by far the biggest guest yet' tweet?\", with options \"Agree\" and \"Disagree\".\n\nIf \"Agree\" has \u226580% of votes, this market resolves YES. If it has less this market resolves to NO.\n\n2) The above market does not resolve before Q2 2025, but one alternative has traded at \u226580% consistently over a week (brief dents below 80% don't matter) --> Resolves to YES \n\n3) Toward the end of Q2 2025, neither of the above has happened. I run a poll similar to what's described above, with my best guess at a name. Resolves to YES if \u226580% \"Agree\" on the suggested name.\n\n4) Dwarkesh unambiguously confirms who the person referred to is/was, this resolves to YES immediately.\n\n5) Unaccounted for by me, but very reasonable scenarios, that I think should resolve to YES or NO, outside of the above.\n\n\nFeel free to suggest improvements to these criteria and conditions, or ask for clarifications.\nI will not trade in this market, to better allow for fair resolution.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-08-23T18:08:23+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-07-01T06:59:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/will-there-be-consensus-on-who-dwar",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.45161636055118604",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "1BskFw5s4FlnaJET30ai",
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "Will Destiny talk to Joe Rogan before the end of 2025?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-destiny-talk-to-joe-rogan-befo-eb498a6dc6a1.",
            "background": "@/strutheo/will-destiny-talk-to-joe-rogan-befo-9f189acf8fa4 ",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-03-11T17:54:41+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2026-01-01T04:59:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-destiny-talk-to-joe-rogan-befo-eb498a6dc6a1",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.071754778451823",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "KJ1JHyFvOOXmVkYDyQSE",
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "Will \u201cThe Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom\u201d get an expansion pack?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/NcyRocks/will-the-legend-of-zelda-tears-of-t.",
            "background": "I.e. paid DLC on the scale of the one \"Breath of the Wild\" got. New costumes and weapons aren't enough; new story or locations will probably suffice.\n\nResolves NO once a new main Zelda game is announced.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2022-12-09T21:01:43+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2026-12-31T11:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://manifold.markets/NcyRocks/will-the-legend-of-zelda-tears-of-t",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.036986672596519006",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "4MkPyu5D9MRLPREODSD7",
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/did-covid19-come-from-a-laboratory.",
            "background": "This market resolves once we have a definitive answer to this question. (i.e. \"I've looked at all notable evidence presented by both sides and have upwards of 98% confidence that a certain conclusion is correct, and it doesn't seem likely that any further relevant evidence will be forthcoming any time soon.\")\n\nThis will likely not occur until many years after Covid is no longer a subject of active political contention, motivations for various actors to distort or hide inconvenient evidence have died down, and a scientific consensus has emerged on the subject. For exactly when it will resolve, see @/IsaacKing/when-will-the-covid-lab-leak-market \n\nI will be conferring with the community extensively before resolving this market, to ensure I haven't missed anything and aren't being overconfident in one direction or another. As some additional assurance, see @/IsaacKing/will-my-resolution-of-the-covid19-l\n\n(For comparison, the level of evidence in favor of anthropogenic climate change would be sufficient, despite the existence of a few doubts here and there.)\n\nIf we never reach a point where I can safely be that confident either way, it'll remain open indefinitely. (And Manifold lends you your mana back after a few months, so this doesn't negatively impact you.)\n\n\"Come from a laboratory\" includes both an accidental lab leak and an intentional release. It also counts if COVID was found in the wild, taken to a lab for study, and then escaped from that lab without any modification. It just needs to have actually been \"in the lab\" in a meaningful way. A lab worker who was out collecting samples and got contaminated in the wild doesn't count, but it does count if they got contaminated later from a sample that was supposed to be safely contained.\n\nIn the event of multiple progenitors, this market resolves YES only if the lab leak was plausibly responsible for the worldwide pandemic. It won't count if the pandemic primarily came from natural sources and then there was also a lab leak that only infected a few people.\n\nI won't bet in this market.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2022-09-01T03:51:30+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2040-01-01T08:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/did-covid19-come-from-a-laboratory",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.51",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "orkfisZxTY9ratCDidWK",
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/MilfordHammerschmidt/will-over-100000-people-be-conceive.",
            "background": "See:\n\nhttps://lifeview.com\n\nhttps://www.gwern.net/Embryo-selection\n\nDoesn't matter what the traits selected are; can be predicted health, personality traits, intelligence, criminality, whatever. Just matters that the embryo was selected based on not specific, simple criteria (i.e. how many chromosomes a fertilized egg has or whether or not it will have sickle cell disease) but more wide ranging quality of life or \"child success\" predictions. ",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-01-13T19:15:32+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2030-01-02T07:59:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://manifold.markets/MilfordHammerschmidt/will-over-100000-people-be-conceive",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.47386365096109506",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "szUrSgdNQDBxn14E5D7E",
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "Will Noam Chomsky become a centenarian?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-noam-chomsky-become-a-centenar-edd6fae0d611.",
            "background": "Born December 7, 1928",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-02-29T01:44:08+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2028-12-09T04:59:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-noam-chomsky-become-a-centenar-edd6fae0d611",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.100530115296069",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "bY7teJbG37L9ale1IQ4m",
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "By 2030, will there be a cure to aging?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/DanielKilian/by-2030-will-there-be-a-cure-to-agi.",
            "background": "",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2022-11-19T20:06:20+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2029-12-31T23:59:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://manifold.markets/DanielKilian/by-2030-will-there-be-a-cure-to-agi",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.12265246598748801",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "Vn56ON2GtAd65aSB4A5m",
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "Will anybody born before 2000 live to be 150?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-anybody-born-before-2000-live.",
            "background": "Time spent uploaded counts, but only real time, not simulated time. If reanimated from cryonic storage, only the time they spent \"alive\" counts.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-03-26T00:41:32+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2150-01-01T05:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-anybody-born-before-2000-live",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.6386986978775361",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "NYISJsNFjI3aIMGExGgo",
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "Will Neuralink successfully enable a blind person to see again using its technology by 2030?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/GabeGarboden/will-neuralink-successfully-enable-c5092c5cd2a1.",
            "background": "Resolves Yes if there's credible news coverage of a Neuralink patient regaining the ability to see using Neuralink's tech.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-01-21T02:42:08+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2030-01-02T07:59:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://manifold.markets/GabeGarboden/will-neuralink-successfully-enable-c5092c5cd2a1",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.8599999999999991",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "OtYXU09UqSgGNknztbl4",
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "Is the \"100% effective against solid tumors\" cancer pill AOH1996 paper legit? [see description]",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/RatUziCat/is-the-pcnatargeting-cancer-drug-pa.",
            "background": "Twitter threads\n\nhttps://twitter.com/izzyz/status/1686491104139673602\n\nhttps://twitter.com/vansianism/status/1686498249807626241\n\nhttps://twitter.com/gigaj0ule/status/1686814611658715136\n\nFirst tweet of last thread: \"Small molecule oral cancer drug kills 100% of solid tumors across 70 evaluated cancer types in vitro and in animal models with a therapeutic index of 6 and no discernible side effects\".\n\nName of the paper \"Small molecule targeting of transcription replication conflict for selective chemotherapy\". Link to paper in the Twitter threads. Twitter search: https://twitter.com/search?q=AOH1996\n\nResolves YES if Phase II human clinical trials are conclusive. \"Conclusive\" according to the scientific consensus at the time of publication of the Phase II human clinical trials results. As I'm no doctor, I will have to rely on this. If there's no consensus, I may put an arbitrary threshold such as 70% efficacy against 50 types of cancers, as I don't expect 100% efficacy on all cancer types in human trials, and as that would validate the drug's mechanism of effect anyway.\n\nResolves NO if Phase II human clinical trials are inconclusive, or earlier if research fraud or errors such as huge in vitro results misinterpretations are revealed.\n\nResolution set arbitrarily at the end of 2028 because Phase I human clinical trials started in October 2022 and last two years. No indication yet of the duration of Phase II trials. End of 2028 is already a somewhat optimistic date for the end of Phase II trials. But such trials can be shortened when drugs show exceptional efficacy in life-threatening conditions, such as with Imatinib, sold as Gleevec/Glivec. I may delay the resolution of the market if acceptable reasons for delays in the clinical trials are given. If other researchers/doctors accept the reasons given for delay, then it's acceptable. If they don't, if they suspect something fishy, eg unfavorable results, then market resolves NO. If there's no consensus, market is extended.\n\nI won't trade in this market for objectivity.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-08-02T22:37:22+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2028-12-31T22:59:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://manifold.markets/RatUziCat/is-the-pcnatargeting-cancer-drug-pa",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.245443167690987",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "RJH3aufks8LK0Pjyhrgl",
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "If Trump wins the election will the inflation rate in 2025 be below 2.5% (Current 2.5%)?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/JamesF/if-trump-wins-the-election-will-the.",
            "background": "Inflation data gathered from the bureau of labor statistics \n\nThe current inflation rate is 3.2% the FED has a goal of 2%. 2.5% is roughly in the middle of these two numbers, if Trump is elected will the FED reach that mark.\n\nResolves N/A if Trump is not elected.\n\n\nRelated:\n\n\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/ManifoldPolitics/if-harris-wins-the-election-will-th)",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-03-09T23:37:25+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-12-10T06:59:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://manifold.markets/JamesF/if-trump-wins-the-election-will-the",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.214329897558234",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O",
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/chrisjbillington/will-the-us-enter-a-recession-by-20.",
            "background": "Resolves YES if the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee declares, by the end of 2025, US Eastern Time, that the US entered a recession at any point in 2023 or 2024. Resolves NO on 2026-01-01 otherwise.\n\nFor a derivative market that resolves sooner, based on how this market is priced at the end of 2024, see:\n\n@/chrisjbillington/will-manifold-price-a-2024-us-reces \n\nUpdate 2025-16-01 (PST): - Market now resolves NO at the end of 2025 if no recession is retrospectively declared before then. (AI summary of creator comment)",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-02-09T01:29:49+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2026-01-01T12:59:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://manifold.markets/chrisjbillington/will-the-us-enter-a-recession-by-20",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.052268250403709006",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "ZLSqnCuN6P",
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "Will the US impose tariffs on semiconductors imported from Taiwan by the end of 2025?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/jgyou/will-the-us-impose-tariffs-on-semic.",
            "background": "Resolution Details: This question resolves YES if the United States federal government officially implements new tariffs specifically targeting semiconductors imported from Taiwan, with an effective date on or before December 31, 2025.\n\nResolution Criteria:\n\nThe tariffs must be formally announced through official US government channels (e.g., Federal Register, US Trade Representative, Department of Commerce)\n\nThe measures must explicitly include semiconductors imported from Taiwan\n\nThe implementation date must be set for no later than December 31, 2025\n\nTemporary suspensions of existing trade agreements do not count as new tariffs\n\nThe tariffs must be broad measures affecting the semiconductor industry, not targeted actions against specific companies (e.g., TSMC)\n\nA general tariff on Taiwanese imports is applied \n\nResolves NO if:\n\nNo such tariffs are announced by December 31, 2025\n\nAnnounced tariffs are scheduled to take effect after December 31, 2025\n\nProposed tariffs are withdrawn before implementation\n\nMeasures are limited to non-tariff trade barriers\n\nActions only affect other categories of goods from Taiwan\n\nTariffs are announced but legally challenged and blocked from implementation\n\n\n",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-01-28T05:18:30+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2026-01-01T04:59:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://manifold.markets/jgyou/will-the-us-impose-tariffs-on-semic",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.676078431699737",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "TryNuKNJXNdiYDCXRpPi",
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "Will AI cause the US Unemployment Rate to exceed 10% before 2030?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/ahalekelly/will-ai-cause-the-us-unemployment-r.",
            "background": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE\n\nUpdate 2023-12-06:\nI appreciate the discussion here, I know it's an ambiguous question and ultimately it's a judgement call, here's my best attempt at quantifying the intent:\n\n\nThis only resolves Yes if AI increasing worker productivity or taking over people's jobs is directly responsible for at least 3 percentage points of the unemployment rate. If unemployment rate spikes due to something else and then the jobs don't come back because AI takes them over, that counts. I will use sober economic analysis to judge this, and wait at least 6 months after a spike to wait for better data before resolving Yes.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-05-07T02:00:29+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2029-12-31T23:59:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://manifold.markets/ahalekelly/will-ai-cause-the-us-unemployment-r",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.195805371430834",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "WDTbFd6CPJezD1j41U5s",
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "Will AI have a trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2025?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/Forrest/will-ai-have-a-sudden-trillion-doll-8d2fc453ac75.",
            "background": "This market is intended to use the same resolution criteria as https://manifold.markets/dreev/will-ai-have-a-sudden-trillion-doll, but for 2025 instead of 2023. For the sake of consistency with that market, I'll ask @dreev for a judgement if the resolution seems non-obvious to me. For convenience, what follows is the description of the linked market: > I'm picking \"trillion+ dollar impact\" as a proxy for \"obviously life-changing for normal people\". It need not count as human-level AI aka artificial general intelligence (AGI). Examples of things that would surely count: > 1. Virtual assistants that are better than well-paid humans > 2. Superhuman art, i.e., people tend to prefer to read / view / listen to AI-generated art > 3. AI generating wholly new science/tech > 4. A technological singularity, obviously > 5. Level 5 self-driving cars or level 4 available mostly everywhere Close date updated to 2026-01-01 11:59 pm\n\nNov 29, 5:10pm: Will AI have a sudden trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2025? \u2192 Will AI have a trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2025?",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2022-04-25T02:15:28+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2026-01-02T04:59:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://manifold.markets/Forrest/will-ai-have-a-sudden-trillion-doll-8d2fc453ac75",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.21000000000000002",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "SqEcEtuq28",
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "Will Elon Musk buy OpenAI?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/Ziddletwix/will-elon-musk-buy-openai.",
            "background": "Resolves YES if Elon Musk & OpenAI formally begin the process for Elon Musk or his associated companies to be\u2014whether alone or as part of a consortium of other investors\u2014the majority/controlling owner of OpenAI before market close (August 31st, 2025). Otherwise (including in the absence of any other information), resolves NO at market close.\n\nIt does not matter if the process is eventually blocked before it completes, there just needs to be a formal-ish announcement from both parties.\n\nThere are many edge cases I cannot specify in advance, so please ask clarifying questions if you are unsure. I plan to be fairly broad with how I define \"Musk buying OpenAI\"\u2014the goal is to capture the spirit of the headlines.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-02-10T21:33:38+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-09-01T06:59:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://manifold.markets/Ziddletwix/will-elon-musk-buy-openai",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.041557281433086006",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "hzKZve2gaJEdm6YuxOLs",
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "Will Tesla become the top-selling car manufacturer in 2027?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/Mikelon797/will-tesla-become-the-topselling-ca.",
            "background": "Will Tesla be the car company which sell the most cars by the end of 2027? (We need to wait until financial results from the biggest automakers)",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-08-19T11:35:13+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2028-03-01T22:59:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://manifold.markets/Mikelon797/will-tesla-become-the-topselling-ca",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.23082365079972003",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "4jXeV1fX6R9JJEgcSMER",
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "Will prediction markets become mainstream by 2028?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/Shump/will-prediction-markets-become-main.",
            "background": "Resolves YES if at least one prediction market platform has more than 1 million daily active users by 2028. Also resolves YES if an online sports betting platform has those engagement numbers AND has a substainstial component that is about politics, science, and other real-world events. So for example, I don't think that Betfair currently counts but it might in the future.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-10-03T03:22:12+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2029-01-01T07:59:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://manifold.markets/Shump/will-prediction-markets-become-main",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.5993761295483",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "8poB8YIlb9QOlkRacyC7",
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "Will the Kenya Universal Basic Income experiment find that UBI significantly reduces local crime?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/DismalScientist/will-the-kenya-universal-basic-inco-594702ae779e.",
            "background": "Households in two Kenyan counties were randomly assigned to receive (or not) about US$0.75 per adult per day for 2 or 12 years. Transfers began in 2018.\n\nhttps://www.socialscienceregistry.org/trials/1952\n\nAt the bottom of above link is the pre-analysis plan. Local crime measured by responses of village elders to survey questions. \n\nhttps://www.poverty-action.org/study/effects-universal-basic-income-kenya\n\n2023 working paper: https://econweb.ucsd.edu/~pniehaus/papers/UBI_main_paper.pdf\n\nIf the \"Long Term arm\" has significantly less crime (as defined by the PAP) than the Control group, then the market resolves Yes. Otherwise, the market resolves No.\n\nNote that if the p-value is above .05 on this test, then the results will be considered insignificant and the market will resolve No.\n\nThe market will resolve based on the first set of results released by the authors on crime that purports to be running the tests outlined in the PAP.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-01-10T15:40:32+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-07-01T22:59:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://manifold.markets/DismalScientist/will-the-kenya-universal-basic-inco-594702ae779e",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.542376717583492",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "yfyPBZNkCMZiffCyICSj",
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "\ud83d\udc4d\ud83d\udc4e Manifold Leadership Approval Rating [Market Index]",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/strutheo/manifold-leadership-approval-rating.",
            "background": "Use mana to let the team know what you think about how they're running the website. 100% means everyone is happy with the direction Manifold is going and the team behind it, and 0% means something has probably gone tragically wrong. \n\nDoes not impact profit rankings\n\nYou get your mana back through loans over time\n\nPermanently open market, will not resolve.\n\nOther Approval Ratings:\n\n@/strutheo/what-will-manifolds-approval-rating \n\n@/strutheo/what-will-manifolds-approval-rating-69a6850abbfb \n\n@/strutheo/what-will-manifolds-approval-rating-d7689b01293f \n\n@/strutheo/what-will-manifolds-approval-rating-da311ac4ea95 ",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-01-11T05:36:02+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2525-01-01T05:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://manifold.markets/strutheo/manifold-leadership-approval-rating",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.62",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "AZNPqIQuA0",
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "Will the fertility rate of South Korea increase from 2023 to 2025?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/TonyGao/will-the-fertility-rate-of-south-ko.",
            "background": "Curious if the martial law attempt will indirectly increase fertility, by potential mechanisms like sense of national crisis or political gender reconciliation.\n\nSource will be https://www.index.go.kr/unify/idx-info.do?pop=1&idxCd=5061\n\nNumber to beat is 0.72 from 2023. If 2025 is higher than that, resolves Yes, otherwise No.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-12-03T16:49:56+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2026-01-01T15:59:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://manifold.markets/TonyGao/will-the-fertility-rate-of-south-ko",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.23161812972339202",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "6ClMFaiYOl5eH93go89v",
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "Will Donald Trump ever serve time in prison?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/potatopenguin/will-donald-trump-serve-time-in-pri.",
            "background": "Resolves yes if and when Donald Trump goes to prison.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-07-26T04:22:49+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2060-06-26T06:59:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://manifold.markets/potatopenguin/will-donald-trump-serve-time-in-pri",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.062716574428528",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "Sqnu2sPyuC",
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "Will at least three of Trump's cabinet nominees fail?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/RichardHanania/will-at-least-three-of-trumps-cabin.",
            "background": "This market will settle as YES if at least three individuals that Trump nominates for cabinet positions that must be confirmed by the Senate are either withdrawn or voted down in the Senate. Cabinet officials refers to the 15 heads of government agencies, along with cabinet-level officials, which for the purposes of this market includes the Administrator of the EPA, Director of National Intelligence, Director of OMB, Director of CIA, United States Trade Representative, Ambassador to the UN, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Administrator of the SBA, and Director of OSTP. \n\nA nomination occurs as soon as President Trump announces an intention to nominate someone. No other step is necessary to be taken. No official step must be taken to withdraw a nominee either. Credible reporting that the administration will not longer be pursuing the nomination is enough. \n\nThis market will settle as NO as soon as all the relevant positions are confirmed, or if the conditions of YES have not been met by March 31, 2025.  \n\nThe nominees that fail need not be all nominated for different positions. If, for example, Trump has three Attorney General nominees that fail, this market will resolve as YES. \n\nIf Donald Trump does not become president or stops being president, this market resolves according to what happens to the nominees of whoever happens to be president during the relevant time period. The nominees of two or more people serving as president will be counted together. If, for example, Trump appoints an AG who is withdrawn and then Vance becomes president and two of his nominees are withdrawn, this market will settle as YES. ",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-11-20T17:56:32+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-04-01T06:59:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://manifold.markets/RichardHanania/will-at-least-three-of-trumps-cabin",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.032147986278168006",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "llC0sSgzg8",
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/Ziddletwix/will-trump-elon-cut-250000-governme.",
            "background": "Linked to this Kalshi question:\n\nIf there are more than 250000 federal employees no longer working relative to the January 2025 employee count before Jan 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from FRED.\n\nNote the resolution criteria\u2014what matters is the change in the count of federal employees, not whether we can confirm Trump and/or Elon directly fired them. For reference, the specific chart Kalshi links to appears to be this one.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-11-13T02:32:53+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-12-31T07:59:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://manifold.markets/Ziddletwix/will-trump-elon-cut-250000-governme",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.55",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "nOXCmJFNsLx08PjOc4Qk",
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-ai-be-at-least-as-big.",
            "background": "I will resolve this based on some combination of how much it gets talked about in elections, how much money goes to interest groups on both topics, and how much of the \"political conversation\" seems to be about either.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-02-20T22:58:28+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2028-01-02T07:59:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-ai-be-at-least-as-big",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.643739903589272",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "h2h0QzCqqC",
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "Will Trump publicly disparage Musk within a year of the election?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/EvanDaniel/will-trump-publicly-disparage-musk.",
            "background": "Within a year of the election, will Trump publicly disparage Elon Musk? \n\nThis could be for any reason, provoked or otherwise. Things like belittling nicknames and personal insults would count, or \"I never liked him anyway\" type statements.\n\nAs this might be somewhat subjective, I won't trade.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-11-09T03:50:46+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-11-06T05:59:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://manifold.markets/EvanDaniel/will-trump-publicly-disparage-musk",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.338199192158807",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "QtxO4jGNyhDzq5s3NrcG",
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "Will Saudi Arabia abandon (or vastly scale back) the NEOM linear city project by 2028?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/JemBishop/will-saudi-arabia-abandon-the-neom.",
            "background": "Abandoned in this case will mean:\n\nExplicitly cancelled \n\nShelved indefinitely (like Jeddah Tower) with no measurable progress in design or construction \n\nScaled back to something vastly more modest (at my disgression)\n\nI will try to judge these criteria as objectively as possible, I do have the personal opinion the project is unrealistic though.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-02-18T11:43:07+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2028-12-31T23:59:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://manifold.markets/JemBishop/will-saudi-arabia-abandon-the-neom",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.902388736969512",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "ygVTjZRGDZvp0EQJ1L53",
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "Will sports betting be legal in California and Texas by 2030?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/10thOfficial/will-sports-betting-be-legal-in-cal.",
            "background": "Must be able to place both an in-person and online sports bet legally in each state on January 1, 2030.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-01-05T22:00:15+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2030-01-01T04:59:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://manifold.markets/10thOfficial/will-sports-betting-be-legal-in-cal",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.8090903956345371",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "q6wJThcy6TJnQKrbjALm",
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "Will the majority of new cars sold be electric vehicles by the end of 2030?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/TobiasSowaaed/will-the-majority-of-new-cars-sold-c4d566afc8c7.",
            "background": "Majority is 50%+ and it's worldwide marketshare",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-09-01T23:59:55+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2030-12-31T22:59:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://manifold.markets/TobiasSowaaed/will-the-majority-of-new-cars-sold-c4d566afc8c7",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.672318161669563",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "cLxfTH5GDfmqeNJwClVF",
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "Will the majority of new cars sold worldwide be electric before the end of 2030?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/kian_spire/will-the-majority-of-new-cars-sold.",
            "background": "This question will resolve as YES if more than 50% of new cars sold worldwide in the year 2030 are electric. \n\nThe source for determining the percentage of electric cars sold will be the International Energy Agency (IEA) annual report on electric vehicles. The report will be released in 2031 and will provide data on the percentage of electric cars sold in 2030. This question does not include hybrid cars, only fully electric cars.\n\nThe question does not consider any potential changes in regulations or government policies that may affect the sales of electric cars.\n\nThis question does not consider any potential changes in consumer behavior or technology development that may affect the sales of electric cars.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-04-21T20:36:16+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2030-12-31T22:59:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://manifold.markets/kian_spire/will-the-majority-of-new-cars-sold",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.685919817492185",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "NYISJsNFjI3aIMGExGgo",
                "OtYXU09UqSgGNknztbl4"
            ],
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "NYISJsNFjI3aIMGExGgo",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will Neuralink successfully enable a blind person to see again using its technology by 2030?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/GabeGarboden/will-neuralink-successfully-enable-c5092c5cd2a1.",
                    "background": "Resolves Yes if there's credible news coverage of a Neuralink patient regaining the ability to see using Neuralink's tech.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-01-21T02:42:08+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2030-01-02T07:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/GabeGarboden/will-neuralink-successfully-enable-c5092c5cd2a1",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.8599999999999991",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "OtYXU09UqSgGNknztbl4",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Is the \"100% effective against solid tumors\" cancer pill AOH1996 paper legit? [see description]",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/RatUziCat/is-the-pcnatargeting-cancer-drug-pa.",
                    "background": "Twitter threads\n\nhttps://twitter.com/izzyz/status/1686491104139673602\n\nhttps://twitter.com/vansianism/status/1686498249807626241\n\nhttps://twitter.com/gigaj0ule/status/1686814611658715136\n\nFirst tweet of last thread: \"Small molecule oral cancer drug kills 100% of solid tumors across 70 evaluated cancer types in vitro and in animal models with a therapeutic index of 6 and no discernible side effects\".\n\nName of the paper \"Small molecule targeting of transcription replication conflict for selective chemotherapy\". Link to paper in the Twitter threads. Twitter search: https://twitter.com/search?q=AOH1996\n\nResolves YES if Phase II human clinical trials are conclusive. \"Conclusive\" according to the scientific consensus at the time of publication of the Phase II human clinical trials results. As I'm no doctor, I will have to rely on this. If there's no consensus, I may put an arbitrary threshold such as 70% efficacy against 50 types of cancers, as I don't expect 100% efficacy on all cancer types in human trials, and as that would validate the drug's mechanism of effect anyway.\n\nResolves NO if Phase II human clinical trials are inconclusive, or earlier if research fraud or errors such as huge in vitro results misinterpretations are revealed.\n\nResolution set arbitrarily at the end of 2028 because Phase I human clinical trials started in October 2022 and last two years. No indication yet of the duration of Phase II trials. End of 2028 is already a somewhat optimistic date for the end of Phase II trials. But such trials can be shortened when drugs show exceptional efficacy in life-threatening conditions, such as with Imatinib, sold as Gleevec/Glivec. I may delay the resolution of the market if acceptable reasons for delays in the clinical trials are given. If other researchers/doctors accept the reasons given for delay, then it's acceptable. If they don't, if they suspect something fishy, eg unfavorable results, then market resolves NO. If there's no consensus, market is extended.\n\nI won't trade in this market for objectivity.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-08-02T22:37:22+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2028-12-31T22:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/RatUziCat/is-the-pcnatargeting-cancer-drug-pa",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.245443167690987",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "4MkPyu5D9MRLPREODSD7",
                "Vn56ON2GtAd65aSB4A5m"
            ],
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "4MkPyu5D9MRLPREODSD7",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/did-covid19-come-from-a-laboratory.",
                    "background": "This market resolves once we have a definitive answer to this question. (i.e. \"I've looked at all notable evidence presented by both sides and have upwards of 98% confidence that a certain conclusion is correct, and it doesn't seem likely that any further relevant evidence will be forthcoming any time soon.\")\n\nThis will likely not occur until many years after Covid is no longer a subject of active political contention, motivations for various actors to distort or hide inconvenient evidence have died down, and a scientific consensus has emerged on the subject. For exactly when it will resolve, see @/IsaacKing/when-will-the-covid-lab-leak-market \n\nI will be conferring with the community extensively before resolving this market, to ensure I haven't missed anything and aren't being overconfident in one direction or another. As some additional assurance, see @/IsaacKing/will-my-resolution-of-the-covid19-l\n\n(For comparison, the level of evidence in favor of anthropogenic climate change would be sufficient, despite the existence of a few doubts here and there.)\n\nIf we never reach a point where I can safely be that confident either way, it'll remain open indefinitely. (And Manifold lends you your mana back after a few months, so this doesn't negatively impact you.)\n\n\"Come from a laboratory\" includes both an accidental lab leak and an intentional release. It also counts if COVID was found in the wild, taken to a lab for study, and then escaped from that lab without any modification. It just needs to have actually been \"in the lab\" in a meaningful way. A lab worker who was out collecting samples and got contaminated in the wild doesn't count, but it does count if they got contaminated later from a sample that was supposed to be safely contained.\n\nIn the event of multiple progenitors, this market resolves YES only if the lab leak was plausibly responsible for the worldwide pandemic. It won't count if the pandemic primarily came from natural sources and then there was also a lab leak that only infected a few people.\n\nI won't bet in this market.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2022-09-01T03:51:30+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2040-01-01T08:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/did-covid19-come-from-a-laboratory",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.51",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "Vn56ON2GtAd65aSB4A5m",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will anybody born before 2000 live to be 150?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-anybody-born-before-2000-live.",
                    "background": "Time spent uploaded counts, but only real time, not simulated time. If reanimated from cryonic storage, only the time they spent \"alive\" counts.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-03-26T00:41:32+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2150-01-01T05:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-anybody-born-before-2000-live",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.6386986978775361",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "orkfisZxTY9ratCDidWK",
                "OtYXU09UqSgGNknztbl4"
            ],
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "orkfisZxTY9ratCDidWK",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/MilfordHammerschmidt/will-over-100000-people-be-conceive.",
                    "background": "See:\n\nhttps://lifeview.com\n\nhttps://www.gwern.net/Embryo-selection\n\nDoesn't matter what the traits selected are; can be predicted health, personality traits, intelligence, criminality, whatever. Just matters that the embryo was selected based on not specific, simple criteria (i.e. how many chromosomes a fertilized egg has or whether or not it will have sickle cell disease) but more wide ranging quality of life or \"child success\" predictions. ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-01-13T19:15:32+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2030-01-02T07:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/MilfordHammerschmidt/will-over-100000-people-be-conceive",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.47386365096109506",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "OtYXU09UqSgGNknztbl4",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Is the \"100% effective against solid tumors\" cancer pill AOH1996 paper legit? [see description]",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/RatUziCat/is-the-pcnatargeting-cancer-drug-pa.",
                    "background": "Twitter threads\n\nhttps://twitter.com/izzyz/status/1686491104139673602\n\nhttps://twitter.com/vansianism/status/1686498249807626241\n\nhttps://twitter.com/gigaj0ule/status/1686814611658715136\n\nFirst tweet of last thread: \"Small molecule oral cancer drug kills 100% of solid tumors across 70 evaluated cancer types in vitro and in animal models with a therapeutic index of 6 and no discernible side effects\".\n\nName of the paper \"Small molecule targeting of transcription replication conflict for selective chemotherapy\". Link to paper in the Twitter threads. Twitter search: https://twitter.com/search?q=AOH1996\n\nResolves YES if Phase II human clinical trials are conclusive. \"Conclusive\" according to the scientific consensus at the time of publication of the Phase II human clinical trials results. As I'm no doctor, I will have to rely on this. If there's no consensus, I may put an arbitrary threshold such as 70% efficacy against 50 types of cancers, as I don't expect 100% efficacy on all cancer types in human trials, and as that would validate the drug's mechanism of effect anyway.\n\nResolves NO if Phase II human clinical trials are inconclusive, or earlier if research fraud or errors such as huge in vitro results misinterpretations are revealed.\n\nResolution set arbitrarily at the end of 2028 because Phase I human clinical trials started in October 2022 and last two years. No indication yet of the duration of Phase II trials. End of 2028 is already a somewhat optimistic date for the end of Phase II trials. But such trials can be shortened when drugs show exceptional efficacy in life-threatening conditions, such as with Imatinib, sold as Gleevec/Glivec. I may delay the resolution of the market if acceptable reasons for delays in the clinical trials are given. If other researchers/doctors accept the reasons given for delay, then it's acceptable. If they don't, if they suspect something fishy, eg unfavorable results, then market resolves NO. If there's no consensus, market is extended.\n\nI won't trade in this market for objectivity.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-08-02T22:37:22+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2028-12-31T22:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/RatUziCat/is-the-pcnatargeting-cancer-drug-pa",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.245443167690987",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "bY7teJbG37L9ale1IQ4m",
                "Vn56ON2GtAd65aSB4A5m"
            ],
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "bY7teJbG37L9ale1IQ4m",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "By 2030, will there be a cure to aging?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/DanielKilian/by-2030-will-there-be-a-cure-to-agi.",
                    "background": "",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2022-11-19T20:06:20+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2029-12-31T23:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/DanielKilian/by-2030-will-there-be-a-cure-to-agi",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.12265246598748801",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "Vn56ON2GtAd65aSB4A5m",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will anybody born before 2000 live to be 150?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-anybody-born-before-2000-live.",
                    "background": "Time spent uploaded counts, but only real time, not simulated time. If reanimated from cryonic storage, only the time they spent \"alive\" counts.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-03-26T00:41:32+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2150-01-01T05:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-anybody-born-before-2000-live",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.6386986978775361",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "szUrSgdNQDBxn14E5D7E",
                "OtYXU09UqSgGNknztbl4"
            ],
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "szUrSgdNQDBxn14E5D7E",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will Noam Chomsky become a centenarian?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-noam-chomsky-become-a-centenar-edd6fae0d611.",
                    "background": "Born December 7, 1928",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-02-29T01:44:08+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2028-12-09T04:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-noam-chomsky-become-a-centenar-edd6fae0d611",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.100530115296069",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "OtYXU09UqSgGNknztbl4",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Is the \"100% effective against solid tumors\" cancer pill AOH1996 paper legit? [see description]",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/RatUziCat/is-the-pcnatargeting-cancer-drug-pa.",
                    "background": "Twitter threads\n\nhttps://twitter.com/izzyz/status/1686491104139673602\n\nhttps://twitter.com/vansianism/status/1686498249807626241\n\nhttps://twitter.com/gigaj0ule/status/1686814611658715136\n\nFirst tweet of last thread: \"Small molecule oral cancer drug kills 100% of solid tumors across 70 evaluated cancer types in vitro and in animal models with a therapeutic index of 6 and no discernible side effects\".\n\nName of the paper \"Small molecule targeting of transcription replication conflict for selective chemotherapy\". Link to paper in the Twitter threads. Twitter search: https://twitter.com/search?q=AOH1996\n\nResolves YES if Phase II human clinical trials are conclusive. \"Conclusive\" according to the scientific consensus at the time of publication of the Phase II human clinical trials results. As I'm no doctor, I will have to rely on this. If there's no consensus, I may put an arbitrary threshold such as 70% efficacy against 50 types of cancers, as I don't expect 100% efficacy on all cancer types in human trials, and as that would validate the drug's mechanism of effect anyway.\n\nResolves NO if Phase II human clinical trials are inconclusive, or earlier if research fraud or errors such as huge in vitro results misinterpretations are revealed.\n\nResolution set arbitrarily at the end of 2028 because Phase I human clinical trials started in October 2022 and last two years. No indication yet of the duration of Phase II trials. End of 2028 is already a somewhat optimistic date for the end of Phase II trials. But such trials can be shortened when drugs show exceptional efficacy in life-threatening conditions, such as with Imatinib, sold as Gleevec/Glivec. I may delay the resolution of the market if acceptable reasons for delays in the clinical trials are given. If other researchers/doctors accept the reasons given for delay, then it's acceptable. If they don't, if they suspect something fishy, eg unfavorable results, then market resolves NO. If there's no consensus, market is extended.\n\nI won't trade in this market for objectivity.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-08-02T22:37:22+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2028-12-31T22:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/RatUziCat/is-the-pcnatargeting-cancer-drug-pa",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.245443167690987",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "4MkPyu5D9MRLPREODSD7",
                "OtYXU09UqSgGNknztbl4"
            ],
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "4MkPyu5D9MRLPREODSD7",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/did-covid19-come-from-a-laboratory.",
                    "background": "This market resolves once we have a definitive answer to this question. (i.e. \"I've looked at all notable evidence presented by both sides and have upwards of 98% confidence that a certain conclusion is correct, and it doesn't seem likely that any further relevant evidence will be forthcoming any time soon.\")\n\nThis will likely not occur until many years after Covid is no longer a subject of active political contention, motivations for various actors to distort or hide inconvenient evidence have died down, and a scientific consensus has emerged on the subject. For exactly when it will resolve, see @/IsaacKing/when-will-the-covid-lab-leak-market \n\nI will be conferring with the community extensively before resolving this market, to ensure I haven't missed anything and aren't being overconfident in one direction or another. As some additional assurance, see @/IsaacKing/will-my-resolution-of-the-covid19-l\n\n(For comparison, the level of evidence in favor of anthropogenic climate change would be sufficient, despite the existence of a few doubts here and there.)\n\nIf we never reach a point where I can safely be that confident either way, it'll remain open indefinitely. (And Manifold lends you your mana back after a few months, so this doesn't negatively impact you.)\n\n\"Come from a laboratory\" includes both an accidental lab leak and an intentional release. It also counts if COVID was found in the wild, taken to a lab for study, and then escaped from that lab without any modification. It just needs to have actually been \"in the lab\" in a meaningful way. A lab worker who was out collecting samples and got contaminated in the wild doesn't count, but it does count if they got contaminated later from a sample that was supposed to be safely contained.\n\nIn the event of multiple progenitors, this market resolves YES only if the lab leak was plausibly responsible for the worldwide pandemic. It won't count if the pandemic primarily came from natural sources and then there was also a lab leak that only infected a few people.\n\nI won't bet in this market.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2022-09-01T03:51:30+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2040-01-01T08:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/did-covid19-come-from-a-laboratory",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.51",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "OtYXU09UqSgGNknztbl4",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Is the \"100% effective against solid tumors\" cancer pill AOH1996 paper legit? [see description]",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/RatUziCat/is-the-pcnatargeting-cancer-drug-pa.",
                    "background": "Twitter threads\n\nhttps://twitter.com/izzyz/status/1686491104139673602\n\nhttps://twitter.com/vansianism/status/1686498249807626241\n\nhttps://twitter.com/gigaj0ule/status/1686814611658715136\n\nFirst tweet of last thread: \"Small molecule oral cancer drug kills 100% of solid tumors across 70 evaluated cancer types in vitro and in animal models with a therapeutic index of 6 and no discernible side effects\".\n\nName of the paper \"Small molecule targeting of transcription replication conflict for selective chemotherapy\". Link to paper in the Twitter threads. Twitter search: https://twitter.com/search?q=AOH1996\n\nResolves YES if Phase II human clinical trials are conclusive. \"Conclusive\" according to the scientific consensus at the time of publication of the Phase II human clinical trials results. As I'm no doctor, I will have to rely on this. If there's no consensus, I may put an arbitrary threshold such as 70% efficacy against 50 types of cancers, as I don't expect 100% efficacy on all cancer types in human trials, and as that would validate the drug's mechanism of effect anyway.\n\nResolves NO if Phase II human clinical trials are inconclusive, or earlier if research fraud or errors such as huge in vitro results misinterpretations are revealed.\n\nResolution set arbitrarily at the end of 2028 because Phase I human clinical trials started in October 2022 and last two years. No indication yet of the duration of Phase II trials. End of 2028 is already a somewhat optimistic date for the end of Phase II trials. But such trials can be shortened when drugs show exceptional efficacy in life-threatening conditions, such as with Imatinib, sold as Gleevec/Glivec. I may delay the resolution of the market if acceptable reasons for delays in the clinical trials are given. If other researchers/doctors accept the reasons given for delay, then it's acceptable. If they don't, if they suspect something fishy, eg unfavorable results, then market resolves NO. If there's no consensus, market is extended.\n\nI won't trade in this market for objectivity.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-08-02T22:37:22+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2028-12-31T22:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/RatUziCat/is-the-pcnatargeting-cancer-drug-pa",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.245443167690987",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "orkfisZxTY9ratCDidWK",
                "Vn56ON2GtAd65aSB4A5m"
            ],
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "orkfisZxTY9ratCDidWK",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/MilfordHammerschmidt/will-over-100000-people-be-conceive.",
                    "background": "See:\n\nhttps://lifeview.com\n\nhttps://www.gwern.net/Embryo-selection\n\nDoesn't matter what the traits selected are; can be predicted health, personality traits, intelligence, criminality, whatever. Just matters that the embryo was selected based on not specific, simple criteria (i.e. how many chromosomes a fertilized egg has or whether or not it will have sickle cell disease) but more wide ranging quality of life or \"child success\" predictions. ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-01-13T19:15:32+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2030-01-02T07:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/MilfordHammerschmidt/will-over-100000-people-be-conceive",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.47386365096109506",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "Vn56ON2GtAd65aSB4A5m",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will anybody born before 2000 live to be 150?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-anybody-born-before-2000-live.",
                    "background": "Time spent uploaded counts, but only real time, not simulated time. If reanimated from cryonic storage, only the time they spent \"alive\" counts.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-03-26T00:41:32+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2150-01-01T05:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-anybody-born-before-2000-live",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.6386986978775361",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "q6wJThcy6TJnQKrbjALm",
                "cLxfTH5GDfmqeNJwClVF"
            ],
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "q6wJThcy6TJnQKrbjALm",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will the majority of new cars sold be electric vehicles by the end of 2030?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/TobiasSowaaed/will-the-majority-of-new-cars-sold-c4d566afc8c7.",
                    "background": "Majority is 50%+ and it's worldwide marketshare",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-09-01T23:59:55+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2030-12-31T22:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/TobiasSowaaed/will-the-majority-of-new-cars-sold-c4d566afc8c7",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.672318161669563",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "cLxfTH5GDfmqeNJwClVF",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will the majority of new cars sold worldwide be electric before the end of 2030?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/kian_spire/will-the-majority-of-new-cars-sold.",
                    "background": "This question will resolve as YES if more than 50% of new cars sold worldwide in the year 2030 are electric. \n\nThe source for determining the percentage of electric cars sold will be the International Energy Agency (IEA) annual report on electric vehicles. The report will be released in 2031 and will provide data on the percentage of electric cars sold in 2030. This question does not include hybrid cars, only fully electric cars.\n\nThe question does not consider any potential changes in regulations or government policies that may affect the sales of electric cars.\n\nThis question does not consider any potential changes in consumer behavior or technology development that may affect the sales of electric cars.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-04-21T20:36:16+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2030-12-31T22:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/kian_spire/will-the-majority-of-new-cars-sold",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.685919817492185",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "4MkPyu5D9MRLPREODSD7",
                "bY7teJbG37L9ale1IQ4m"
            ],
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "4MkPyu5D9MRLPREODSD7",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/did-covid19-come-from-a-laboratory.",
                    "background": "This market resolves once we have a definitive answer to this question. (i.e. \"I've looked at all notable evidence presented by both sides and have upwards of 98% confidence that a certain conclusion is correct, and it doesn't seem likely that any further relevant evidence will be forthcoming any time soon.\")\n\nThis will likely not occur until many years after Covid is no longer a subject of active political contention, motivations for various actors to distort or hide inconvenient evidence have died down, and a scientific consensus has emerged on the subject. For exactly when it will resolve, see @/IsaacKing/when-will-the-covid-lab-leak-market \n\nI will be conferring with the community extensively before resolving this market, to ensure I haven't missed anything and aren't being overconfident in one direction or another. As some additional assurance, see @/IsaacKing/will-my-resolution-of-the-covid19-l\n\n(For comparison, the level of evidence in favor of anthropogenic climate change would be sufficient, despite the existence of a few doubts here and there.)\n\nIf we never reach a point where I can safely be that confident either way, it'll remain open indefinitely. (And Manifold lends you your mana back after a few months, so this doesn't negatively impact you.)\n\n\"Come from a laboratory\" includes both an accidental lab leak and an intentional release. It also counts if COVID was found in the wild, taken to a lab for study, and then escaped from that lab without any modification. It just needs to have actually been \"in the lab\" in a meaningful way. A lab worker who was out collecting samples and got contaminated in the wild doesn't count, but it does count if they got contaminated later from a sample that was supposed to be safely contained.\n\nIn the event of multiple progenitors, this market resolves YES only if the lab leak was plausibly responsible for the worldwide pandemic. It won't count if the pandemic primarily came from natural sources and then there was also a lab leak that only infected a few people.\n\nI won't bet in this market.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2022-09-01T03:51:30+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2040-01-01T08:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/did-covid19-come-from-a-laboratory",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.51",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "bY7teJbG37L9ale1IQ4m",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "By 2030, will there be a cure to aging?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/DanielKilian/by-2030-will-there-be-a-cure-to-agi.",
                    "background": "",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2022-11-19T20:06:20+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2029-12-31T23:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/DanielKilian/by-2030-will-there-be-a-cure-to-agi",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.12265246598748801",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "G3mFASghFttmIxkNVU7n",
                "1BskFw5s4FlnaJET30ai"
            ],
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "G3mFASghFttmIxkNVU7n",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "If Leonardo DiCaprio has a girlfriend after Vittoria Ceretti, will she be less than half DiCaprio's age at the time?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/strutheo/if-leonardo-dicaprio-has-a-girlfrie.",
                    "background": "",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-03-10T07:11:27+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2051-01-01T04:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/strutheo/if-leonardo-dicaprio-has-a-girlfrie",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.677531310347337",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "1BskFw5s4FlnaJET30ai",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will Destiny talk to Joe Rogan before the end of 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-destiny-talk-to-joe-rogan-befo-eb498a6dc6a1.",
                    "background": "@/strutheo/will-destiny-talk-to-joe-rogan-befo-9f189acf8fa4 ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-03-11T17:54:41+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2026-01-01T04:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-destiny-talk-to-joe-rogan-befo-eb498a6dc6a1",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.071754778451823",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "0A8xESzefvrCpd9RHEJf",
                "cb4s0TO4eh4exBuFyldp"
            ],
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "0A8xESzefvrCpd9RHEJf",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will Ukraine join NATO before Family Guy ends?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-ukraine-join-nato-before-famil.",
                    "background": "",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-03-07T19:59:30+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2101-01-01T04:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-ukraine-join-nato-before-famil",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.455696834648098",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "cb4s0TO4eh4exBuFyldp",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will the first person to walk on Mars make it back to Earth?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-the-first-person-to-walk-on-ma-112ceb82478e.",
                    "background": "If there are multiple people in the first mission, any of them getting back to Earth will resolve YES. Must still be alive.\n\nMarket open until it happens \n\nSee: @/strutheo/will-elon-musk-be-the-first-person ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-03-26T16:52:28+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2040-01-02T04:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-the-first-person-to-walk-on-ma-112ceb82478e",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.732485544687271",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "IWT36MaBUPU5dtiCygxo",
                "qZplxHCdwy91PJWO2dXh"
            ],
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "IWT36MaBUPU5dtiCygxo",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will a legal sub two-hour marathon be run before December 31, 2025.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/MaxKammerman/will-a-legal-sub-twohour-marathon-b.",
                    "background": "Resolution criteria:\n\nConfirmation by World Athletics (formerly IAAF). ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-11-13T12:20:59+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2026-01-01T04:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/MaxKammerman/will-a-legal-sub-twohour-marathon-b",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.46847040831054804",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "qZplxHCdwy91PJWO2dXh",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will LeBron James pass Chris Paul in career assists?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/dominic/will-lebron-james-pass-chris-paul-i.",
                    "background": "Currently, LeBron James has 10,247 assists and Chris Paul has 11,194 assists, meaning that LeBron is 947 assists behind. https://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/ast_career.html\n\nBoth are still currently active players, and both have around 200 assists recorded so far this season. They are approximately the same age. \n\nThis market will be resolved positively if LeBron is ahead of Chris Paul in career assists, and Chris Paul is retired. It will resolve negatively if Chris Paul is ahead of LeBron, and LeBron is retired. If LeBron passes Paul, and then gets passed back, and then they both retire, it would still resolve negatively.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-01-08T04:43:47+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2029-01-01T07:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/dominic/will-lebron-james-pass-chris-paul-i",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.07446219085443201",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "p2ojWwlaPa8aCNUOeX8P",
                "qZplxHCdwy91PJWO2dXh"
            ],
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "p2ojWwlaPa8aCNUOeX8P",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will Roger Clemens be admitted to the MLB Hall of Fame during his lifetime?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-roger-clemens-be-admitted-to-t.",
                    "background": "Resolves YES if Roger Clemens is admitted to the MLB Hall of Fame during his lifetime. Resolves NO if not.\n\n(https://www.youtube.com/embed/YQDvxwST65k)",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2022-08-08T15:25:56+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2040-08-16T03:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-roger-clemens-be-admitted-to-t",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.493950894700504",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "qZplxHCdwy91PJWO2dXh",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will LeBron James pass Chris Paul in career assists?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/dominic/will-lebron-james-pass-chris-paul-i.",
                    "background": "Currently, LeBron James has 10,247 assists and Chris Paul has 11,194 assists, meaning that LeBron is 947 assists behind. https://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/ast_career.html\n\nBoth are still currently active players, and both have around 200 assists recorded so far this season. They are approximately the same age. \n\nThis market will be resolved positively if LeBron is ahead of Chris Paul in career assists, and Chris Paul is retired. It will resolve negatively if Chris Paul is ahead of LeBron, and LeBron is retired. If LeBron passes Paul, and then gets passed back, and then they both retire, it would still resolve negatively.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-01-08T04:43:47+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2029-01-01T07:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/dominic/will-lebron-james-pass-chris-paul-i",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.07446219085443201",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "0587u5Mk7ng2NaOkgCu1",
                "WjigEUrHmJzDR7P5XXi0"
            ],
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "0587u5Mk7ng2NaOkgCu1",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will there be a televised match between a robot and a top-10 human tennis player by 2035?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/Paul/will-there-be-a-televised-match-bet.",
                    "background": "Top-10 players to be determined by https://www.espn.com/tennis/rankings, or other official rankings list.\n\nA \"televised match\" consists of either a conventional TV broadcast or a youtube video with over 100k views.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2022-11-23T23:30:26+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2035-01-01T01:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/Paul/will-there-be-a-televised-match-bet",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.524614116780025",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "WjigEUrHmJzDR7P5XXi0",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will the NFL Media unit be under Disney's control by the end of 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/10thOfficial/will-the-nfl-media-unit-be-under-di.",
                    "background": "",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-01-17T17:31:16+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2026-01-01T04:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/10thOfficial/will-the-nfl-media-unit-be-under-di",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.555360853991112",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "bDKnrDuAgrnxEcIzQ0a1",
                "tqYwjkBMeKg6NIp20onX"
            ],
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "bDKnrDuAgrnxEcIzQ0a1",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "AI commentary for an entire golf game by 2030 end?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/_deleted_/ai-commentary-for-an-entire-golf-ga-129663c258e1.",
                    "background": "[tweet]\nand \n\nhttps://www.golfdigest.com/story/masters-2023-artifical-technology\n\nThe game should be aired, the commentary should be live, not retrospectively added\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-04-08T21:01:42+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2030-12-31T06:29:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/_deleted_/ai-commentary-for-an-entire-golf-ga-129663c258e1",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.788429218027861",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "tqYwjkBMeKg6NIp20onX",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Does Victor Wembanyama win NBA MVP by 2030",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/Wieneron/does-victor-wembanyama-win-nba-mvp.",
                    "background": "The greatest prospect since Kareem is about to enter the league.  Will he dominate? How soon?",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-04-19T16:50:35+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2030-12-31T23:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/Wieneron/does-victor-wembanyama-win-nba-mvp",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.7345076830133781",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "yfyPBZNkCMZiffCyICSj",
                "nOXCmJFNsLx08PjOc4Qk"
            ],
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "yfyPBZNkCMZiffCyICSj",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "\ud83d\udc4d\ud83d\udc4e Manifold Leadership Approval Rating [Market Index]",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/strutheo/manifold-leadership-approval-rating.",
                    "background": "Use mana to let the team know what you think about how they're running the website. 100% means everyone is happy with the direction Manifold is going and the team behind it, and 0% means something has probably gone tragically wrong. \n\nDoes not impact profit rankings\n\nYou get your mana back through loans over time\n\nPermanently open market, will not resolve.\n\nOther Approval Ratings:\n\n@/strutheo/what-will-manifolds-approval-rating \n\n@/strutheo/what-will-manifolds-approval-rating-69a6850abbfb \n\n@/strutheo/what-will-manifolds-approval-rating-d7689b01293f \n\n@/strutheo/what-will-manifolds-approval-rating-da311ac4ea95 ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-01-11T05:36:02+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2525-01-01T05:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/strutheo/manifold-leadership-approval-rating",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.62",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "nOXCmJFNsLx08PjOc4Qk",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-ai-be-at-least-as-big.",
                    "background": "I will resolve this based on some combination of how much it gets talked about in elections, how much money goes to interest groups on both topics, and how much of the \"political conversation\" seems to be about either.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-02-20T22:58:28+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2028-01-02T07:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-ai-be-at-least-as-big",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.643739903589272",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "Da8HD0uQIKR9M9L0Ajmq",
                "wENpa5mETtrCnBYJKl5t"
            ],
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "Da8HD0uQIKR9M9L0Ajmq",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will Drake be found guilty of a crime before the end of 2028?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-drake-be-found-guilty-of-a-cri.",
                    "background": "Must be charged indicted and found guilty of at least one crime even if it is not the original one he is charged with\n\n@/strutheo/will-drake-be-formally-charged-with ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-05-04T16:34:30+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2029-01-01T04:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-drake-be-found-guilty-of-a-cri",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.213895847610544",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "wENpa5mETtrCnBYJKl5t",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-china-launch-a-fullscale-invas.",
                    "background": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10880/china-to-invade-taiwan-before-2030/",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2022-05-24T01:01:22+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2030-01-01T04:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-china-launch-a-fullscale-invas",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.328916279287777",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "YrQ6jZbI1xhpY2TyQvJ9",
                "sis542tw6o"
            ],
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "YrQ6jZbI1xhpY2TyQvJ9",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will the next Agent 007 (after \"No Time To Die\") be black?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/Predictor/will-the-next-agent-007-after-no-ti.",
                    "background": "With Daniel Craig saying goodbye to his role as James Bond, many fans of 007 are asking for changes for the franchise, so it can stay relevant in current times. One of such changes might have to do with who plays the British secret agent in future films of the franchise.\n\nIf 007 is confirmed to be played by a black actor or actress in the first 007 movie to be released after \"No Time To Die\", this market will be resolved as \"Yes\".\n\n\nClose date updated to 2023-12-31 11:59 pm",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2022-10-13T23:33:20+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2026-01-01T04:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/Predictor/will-the-next-agent-007-after-no-ti",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.055925086622781006",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "sis542tw6o",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will there be consensus on who Dwarkesh's \"biggest guest yet\" was, before Q3 2025? (Resolves to poll)",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/will-there-be-consensus-on-who-dwar.",
                    "background": "For context, see this tweet.\n\nWithin the next few months, I'm going to be releasing an episode with by far my biggest guest yet.\n\nIf you're interesting in sponsoring it, shoot me an email at sponsor@dwarkeshpatel.com\n\nSee also @/Ziddletwix/will-manifold-agree-that-dwarkeshs \n\nI think it's not clear that these markets will be unambiguous and satisfactorily resolved, therefore I created this one.\n\nResolution\n\n\u200c\nA few separate possibilities to resolution here\n\n1) See: Who is Dwarkesh's upcoming \"biggest guest yet\"? Once that market resolves, I will close this one and run a poll for one week, using the [NAME] that it resolved to.\n\nThe phrasing will be something along the lines of \"Do you agree that [NAME] was the person Dwarkesh alluded  to with the 'by far the biggest guest yet' tweet?\", with options \"Agree\" and \"Disagree\".\n\nIf \"Agree\" has \u226580% of votes, this market resolves YES. If it has less this market resolves to NO.\n\n2) The above market does not resolve before Q2 2025, but one alternative has traded at \u226580% consistently over a week (brief dents below 80% don't matter) --> Resolves to YES \n\n3) Toward the end of Q2 2025, neither of the above has happened. I run a poll similar to what's described above, with my best guess at a name. Resolves to YES if \u226580% \"Agree\" on the suggested name.\n\n4) Dwarkesh unambiguously confirms who the person referred to is/was, this resolves to YES immediately.\n\n5) Unaccounted for by me, but very reasonable scenarios, that I think should resolve to YES or NO, outside of the above.\n\n\nFeel free to suggest improvements to these criteria and conditions, or ask for clarifications.\nI will not trade in this market, to better allow for fair resolution.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-08-23T18:08:23+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-07-01T06:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/will-there-be-consensus-on-who-dwar",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.45161636055118604",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "x0N5kcbmFRaaxlj49kzO",
                "biXq0Tl6I185ivohSgoV"
            ],
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "x0N5kcbmFRaaxlj49kzO",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/MarlonK/will-china-attempt-to-invade-taiwan.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve \"yes\" if there is a Chinese military attack with the intention to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027.\n\nThis question is answered \"No\" if there is:\n\nno military conflict between the two parties\n\na limited military conflict without triggering a major war\n\nOn the one hand, this time span approximately reaches the maximum forecast range (~<5 years), as Philip E. Tetlock in his book Superforecasting: the art and science of prediction. Moreover, 2027 is the year in which, as frequently reported, China wants to seek military capabilities to successfully invade Taiwan without saying that it will act accordingly.\n\n\"[...] Admiral John Aquilino, says China wants to finish modernising its armed forces by 2027. The timeline is shrinking, he told the Senate in March.\n\nhttps://www.economist.com/china/2022/09/01/a-weak-china-may-be-more-warlike-than-a-strong-one\n\nThe year Davidson sees as the potential time horizon for a Chinese attack, 2027, is the centenary of the People\u2019s Liberation Army. In November 2020, the Chinese Communist party said it wanted to \u201censure that the 100-year military building goal is achieved by 2027\u201d, called for faster military modernisation and reiterated the goal of making the Chinese military fit for networked, \u201cintelligentised\u201d warfare. Although those are stock phrases China has used before, the Pentagon calls 2027 a \u201cnew milestone\u201d. \u201cIf realised, the PLA\u2019s 2027 modernisation goals could provide Beijing with more credible military options in a Taiwan contingency,\u201d it said in its annual report on the Chinese military last year. Some analysts doubt Davidson\u2019s date. But one year on from his testimony, government and military officials in both Taipei and Washington say the window from now to 2027 is a genuine threat.\n\n[...]\nOne person familiar with the administration\u2019s assessment of the threat to Taiwan says there is general agreement that China is aiming to have developed the necessary capabilities to attack by 2027, but argues that is very distinct from the question of intent or action.\n\nhttps://www.ft.com/content/0850eb67-1700-47c0-9dbf-3395b4e905fd",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2022-10-05T13:22:49+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2027-12-31T22:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/MarlonK/will-china-attempt-to-invade-taiwan",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.25387607650487504",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "biXq0Tl6I185ivohSgoV",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will Kizaru betray/defect the Marines?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/BoxFangWP/will-kizaru-betraydefect-the-marine.",
                    "background": "",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-09-03T02:19:43+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-10-31T10:25:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/BoxFangWP/will-kizaru-betraydefect-the-marine",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.6556909236732571",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "hh2bXhwKDTioZ7KtGKfC",
                "cE1pnjaMDDaOF16V14Y2"
            ],
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "hh2bXhwKDTioZ7KtGKfC",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will we get AGI before 2030?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2030.",
                    "background": "Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being. Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can. It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience.\n\nResolves as YES if such a system is created and publicly announced before January 1st 2030\n\nHere are markets with the same criteria:\n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/did-agi-emerge-in-2023 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2025 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2026-3d9bfaa96a61 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2027-d7b5f2b00ace \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2028-ff560f9e9346 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2029-ef1c187271ed \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2030 (this question)\n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2031 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2032 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2033 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2034 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2033-34ec8e1d00fd \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2036 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2037 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2038 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2039 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2040 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2041 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2042@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2043 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2044 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2045 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2046 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2047 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2048 \n\nRelated markets:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2027 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2028 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2029 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2030 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2031 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2032 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2033 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2034 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2035 \n\nOther questions for 2030:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-217e4b895daa \n\n@/RemNi/will-earth-have-a-space-elevator-be-292c3a01b029 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-dd5dc0576ff4 \n\n@/RemNi/will-vladimir-putin-be-the-leader-o-52c0e8d8ea7f \n\n@/RemNi/will-xi-jinping-be-the-leader-of-ch-e48b02725ad9 \n\n@/RemNi/will-kim-jong-un-be-the-leader-of-n-32f2cbfe20ce@/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor \n\n@/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-mars-before-20-b78c73592440 \n\n@/RemNi/will-the-dancing-plague-return-befo-d5d68a482594 \n\nSolar system exploration questions:\n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-v-4a5c4940b285@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-l \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-m-76d02d43aa2c \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-j-d94ab8bbb580 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-s-78e59fa4805f \n\n@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-u-b7061eeb1c8c \n\n@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-n-80f53d888d58 \n\nOther points of reference for AGI:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-vladimir-put \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-xi-jinping-s \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent-549ed4a31a05 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-room \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-discover \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-fusio \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-1m-humanoid ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-12-07T22:20:23+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2030-03-01T22:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2030",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.608328724109747",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "cE1pnjaMDDaOF16V14Y2",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will Google Chrome be the most popular browser at the end of 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-google-chrome-remain-the-most-d638290c2b33.",
                    "background": "Resolution according to the \"Usage share of all browsers\" table in this wikipedia entry:\n\nhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Usage_share_of_web_browsers\n\nRelated market:\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/AmmonLam/will-google-chrome-remain-the-most-157ad71d2da0)",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2022-12-28T05:27:18+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2026-01-01T04:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-google-chrome-remain-the-most-d638290c2b33",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.9628204529004871",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "SqEcEtuq28",
                "hzKZve2gaJEdm6YuxOLs"
            ],
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "SqEcEtuq28",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will Elon Musk buy OpenAI?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/Ziddletwix/will-elon-musk-buy-openai.",
                    "background": "Resolves YES if Elon Musk & OpenAI formally begin the process for Elon Musk or his associated companies to be\u2014whether alone or as part of a consortium of other investors\u2014the majority/controlling owner of OpenAI before market close (August 31st, 2025). Otherwise (including in the absence of any other information), resolves NO at market close.\n\nIt does not matter if the process is eventually blocked before it completes, there just needs to be a formal-ish announcement from both parties.\n\nThere are many edge cases I cannot specify in advance, so please ask clarifying questions if you are unsure. I plan to be fairly broad with how I define \"Musk buying OpenAI\"\u2014the goal is to capture the spirit of the headlines.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-02-10T21:33:38+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-09-01T06:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/Ziddletwix/will-elon-musk-buy-openai",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.041557281433086006",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "hzKZve2gaJEdm6YuxOLs",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will Tesla become the top-selling car manufacturer in 2027?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/Mikelon797/will-tesla-become-the-topselling-ca.",
                    "background": "Will Tesla be the car company which sell the most cars by the end of 2027? (We need to wait until financial results from the biggest automakers)",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-08-19T11:35:13+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2028-03-01T22:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/Mikelon797/will-tesla-become-the-topselling-ca",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.23082365079972003",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "biXq0Tl6I185ivohSgoV",
                "RiB3ECnJ48CXPeRVKKu7"
            ],
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "biXq0Tl6I185ivohSgoV",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will Kizaru betray/defect the Marines?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/BoxFangWP/will-kizaru-betraydefect-the-marine.",
                    "background": "",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-09-03T02:19:43+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-10-31T10:25:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/BoxFangWP/will-kizaru-betraydefect-the-marine",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.6556909236732571",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "RiB3ECnJ48CXPeRVKKu7",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/chrisjbillington/will-ukraine-win-the-russoukrainian.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve YES if and when Wikipedia's English page on the Russo-Ukrainian War (or the nearest equivalent if that page no longer exists) lists in its infobox \"Result: Ukrainian victory\", and I am satisfied that this is not part of an edit war.\n\nIt will also resolve YES if the result describes the victor as some coalition of which Ukraine is a part, or describes the outcome in terms of the defeated side being Russia or some coalition of which Russia is a part.\n\nAny other \"result\" after the war is no longer described by Wikipedia as \"ongoing\" will cause the market to resolve NO, including hedged statements like \"Partial Ukrainian victory\" or \"Ukrainian victory with territorial losses\".\n\nResolution only depends on the first, non-dotpoint statement in the \"result\" section of the infobox. If hedging/concessions follow the intitial statement as dotpoints, or if they appear in the body of the article, this is not relevant to resolution. If the \"result\" comprises only dotpoints, the market will resolve NO.\n\nThe closing date for this market will be extended as needed until the market can resolve.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-01-10T07:15:40+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-12-31T23:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/chrisjbillington/will-ukraine-win-the-russoukrainian",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.14",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "ijfFvS9a12mU7Ahqq3JI",
                "KJ1JHyFvOOXmVkYDyQSE"
            ],
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "ijfFvS9a12mU7Ahqq3JI",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/Shump/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener-e7f99acbe19d.",
                    "background": "Same as the main market but the AI must only be at the level of the worst filmmakers, rather than the best. So instead of a Marvel movie level of quality, think The Room level of quality. That's the yardstick that I will be using. Alternatively it can be any other well-known bad movie, like Birdemic or Who Killed Captain Alex. It doesn't need to have the \"so bad it's good\" qualities of The Room, but it needs to have a minimally coherent plot structure and cinematography. It must not be too painful for humans to watch the entire thing, and it needs to have the basics like characters say and do things that advance the plot, at least usually.\n\nMain market:\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener)",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-01-28T04:34:11+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2028-01-02T07:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/Shump/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener-e7f99acbe19d",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.659999999999999",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "KJ1JHyFvOOXmVkYDyQSE",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will \u201cThe Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom\u201d get an expansion pack?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/NcyRocks/will-the-legend-of-zelda-tears-of-t.",
                    "background": "I.e. paid DLC on the scale of the one \"Breath of the Wild\" got. New costumes and weapons aren't enough; new story or locations will probably suffice.\n\nResolves NO once a new main Zelda game is announced.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2022-12-09T21:01:43+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2026-12-31T11:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/NcyRocks/will-the-legend-of-zelda-tears-of-t",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.036986672596519006",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "28RJ23fKDFMr4Mo8YQ4f",
                "YREnvVjBXi5qQFCQhzSv"
            ],
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "28RJ23fKDFMr4Mo8YQ4f",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will human narration for audiobooks become mostly unnecessary before 2026?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/FranklinBaldo/will-human-narration-for-audiobooks.",
                    "background": "[tweet]",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-10-16T01:53:43+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2026-01-01T03:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/FranklinBaldo/will-human-narration-for-audiobooks",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.7500000000000001",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "YREnvVjBXi5qQFCQhzSv",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "In 2028, will at least 350,000 (1/1000) Americans be talking at least monthly to an AI therapist or coach?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-at-least-350000-11000.",
                    "background": "I will try to find estimates of how many people are doing this in order to resolve it, but no guarantees.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-02-20T22:55:39+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2028-01-02T07:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-at-least-350000-11000",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.7643144691493491",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "4MkPyu5D9MRLPREODSD7",
                "NYISJsNFjI3aIMGExGgo"
            ],
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "4MkPyu5D9MRLPREODSD7",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/did-covid19-come-from-a-laboratory.",
                    "background": "This market resolves once we have a definitive answer to this question. (i.e. \"I've looked at all notable evidence presented by both sides and have upwards of 98% confidence that a certain conclusion is correct, and it doesn't seem likely that any further relevant evidence will be forthcoming any time soon.\")\n\nThis will likely not occur until many years after Covid is no longer a subject of active political contention, motivations for various actors to distort or hide inconvenient evidence have died down, and a scientific consensus has emerged on the subject. For exactly when it will resolve, see @/IsaacKing/when-will-the-covid-lab-leak-market \n\nI will be conferring with the community extensively before resolving this market, to ensure I haven't missed anything and aren't being overconfident in one direction or another. As some additional assurance, see @/IsaacKing/will-my-resolution-of-the-covid19-l\n\n(For comparison, the level of evidence in favor of anthropogenic climate change would be sufficient, despite the existence of a few doubts here and there.)\n\nIf we never reach a point where I can safely be that confident either way, it'll remain open indefinitely. (And Manifold lends you your mana back after a few months, so this doesn't negatively impact you.)\n\n\"Come from a laboratory\" includes both an accidental lab leak and an intentional release. It also counts if COVID was found in the wild, taken to a lab for study, and then escaped from that lab without any modification. It just needs to have actually been \"in the lab\" in a meaningful way. A lab worker who was out collecting samples and got contaminated in the wild doesn't count, but it does count if they got contaminated later from a sample that was supposed to be safely contained.\n\nIn the event of multiple progenitors, this market resolves YES only if the lab leak was plausibly responsible for the worldwide pandemic. It won't count if the pandemic primarily came from natural sources and then there was also a lab leak that only infected a few people.\n\nI won't bet in this market.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2022-09-01T03:51:30+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2040-01-01T08:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/did-covid19-come-from-a-laboratory",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.51",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "NYISJsNFjI3aIMGExGgo",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will Neuralink successfully enable a blind person to see again using its technology by 2030?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/GabeGarboden/will-neuralink-successfully-enable-c5092c5cd2a1.",
                    "background": "Resolves Yes if there's credible news coverage of a Neuralink patient regaining the ability to see using Neuralink's tech.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-01-21T02:42:08+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2030-01-02T07:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/GabeGarboden/will-neuralink-successfully-enable-c5092c5cd2a1",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.8599999999999991",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "TryNuKNJXNdiYDCXRpPi",
                "4jXeV1fX6R9JJEgcSMER"
            ],
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "TryNuKNJXNdiYDCXRpPi",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will AI cause the US Unemployment Rate to exceed 10% before 2030?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/ahalekelly/will-ai-cause-the-us-unemployment-r.",
                    "background": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE\n\nUpdate 2023-12-06:\nI appreciate the discussion here, I know it's an ambiguous question and ultimately it's a judgement call, here's my best attempt at quantifying the intent:\n\n\nThis only resolves Yes if AI increasing worker productivity or taking over people's jobs is directly responsible for at least 3 percentage points of the unemployment rate. If unemployment rate spikes due to something else and then the jobs don't come back because AI takes them over, that counts. I will use sober economic analysis to judge this, and wait at least 6 months after a spike to wait for better data before resolving Yes.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-05-07T02:00:29+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2029-12-31T23:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/ahalekelly/will-ai-cause-the-us-unemployment-r",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.195805371430834",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "4jXeV1fX6R9JJEgcSMER",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will prediction markets become mainstream by 2028?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/Shump/will-prediction-markets-become-main.",
                    "background": "Resolves YES if at least one prediction market platform has more than 1 million daily active users by 2028. Also resolves YES if an online sports betting platform has those engagement numbers AND has a substainstial component that is about politics, science, and other real-world events. So for example, I don't think that Betfair currently counts but it might in the future.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-10-03T03:22:12+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2029-01-01T07:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/Shump/will-prediction-markets-become-main",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.5993761295483",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "p2ojWwlaPa8aCNUOeX8P",
                "4fPq6PiY40SUrZGL7cb5"
            ],
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "p2ojWwlaPa8aCNUOeX8P",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will Roger Clemens be admitted to the MLB Hall of Fame during his lifetime?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-roger-clemens-be-admitted-to-t.",
                    "background": "Resolves YES if Roger Clemens is admitted to the MLB Hall of Fame during his lifetime. Resolves NO if not.\n\n(https://www.youtube.com/embed/YQDvxwST65k)",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2022-08-08T15:25:56+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2040-08-16T03:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-roger-clemens-be-admitted-to-t",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.493950894700504",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "4fPq6PiY40SUrZGL7cb5",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will Magnus Carlsen compete for the FIDE Classical World Chess Championship before 2033?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/HarrisonLucas/will-magnus-carlsen-compete-for-the.",
                    "background": "This question resolves as YES if Magnus Carlsen, the Classical World Chess Champion as of 2022, participates either in: \n\n(1) An event, such as a candidates tournament, which is primarily intended to select the next contender for the FIDE Classical World Chess Championship.\n\n(2) Or Carlsen otherwise is a challenger for the FIDE Classical World Chess Championship.\n\nCriteria and clarifications. \n\nIf Carlsen competes in a tournament or tournaments which are qualification events for a candidates tournament, then that does not count as competing for the world championship. For example, if winning first place in the Sinquefield Cup earns the winner a spot in the candidates tournament, then participating in the Sinquefield Cup does not count as competing for the world championship. But if Carlsen wins first place at the Sinquefield Cup and opts to participate in the candidates tournament, then this question will resolve as YES. The Sinquefield Cup does not count as a world championship competition because its chief reason for existing is not to serve as a WCC selection event.\n\nThe official World Classical Chess Championship is the WCC contest administered by FIDE (or FIDE's successor if it should cease to exist as the main governing body of international chess competitions). Under these terms, Fischer's last match against Spassky and Kasparov's championships after the Kasparov-Short competition do not count as FIDE Classical World Chess Championships. ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2022-10-01T01:45:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2032-12-31T16:01:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/HarrisonLucas/will-magnus-carlsen-compete-for-the",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.15013416305301902",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "AZNPqIQuA0",
                "h2h0QzCqqC"
            ],
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "AZNPqIQuA0",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will the fertility rate of South Korea increase from 2023 to 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/TonyGao/will-the-fertility-rate-of-south-ko.",
                    "background": "Curious if the martial law attempt will indirectly increase fertility, by potential mechanisms like sense of national crisis or political gender reconciliation.\n\nSource will be https://www.index.go.kr/unify/idx-info.do?pop=1&idxCd=5061\n\nNumber to beat is 0.72 from 2023. If 2025 is higher than that, resolves Yes, otherwise No.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-12-03T16:49:56+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2026-01-01T15:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/TonyGao/will-the-fertility-rate-of-south-ko",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.23161812972339202",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "h2h0QzCqqC",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will Trump publicly disparage Musk within a year of the election?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/EvanDaniel/will-trump-publicly-disparage-musk.",
                    "background": "Within a year of the election, will Trump publicly disparage Elon Musk? \n\nThis could be for any reason, provoked or otherwise. Things like belittling nicknames and personal insults would count, or \"I never liked him anyway\" type statements.\n\nAs this might be somewhat subjective, I won't trade.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-11-09T03:50:46+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-11-06T05:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/EvanDaniel/will-trump-publicly-disparage-musk",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.338199192158807",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "llC0sSgzg8",
                "h2h0QzCqqC"
            ],
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "llC0sSgzg8",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/Ziddletwix/will-trump-elon-cut-250000-governme.",
                    "background": "Linked to this Kalshi question:\n\nIf there are more than 250000 federal employees no longer working relative to the January 2025 employee count before Jan 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from FRED.\n\nNote the resolution criteria\u2014what matters is the change in the count of federal employees, not whether we can confirm Trump and/or Elon directly fired them. For reference, the specific chart Kalshi links to appears to be this one.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-11-13T02:32:53+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-12-31T07:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/Ziddletwix/will-trump-elon-cut-250000-governme",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.55",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "h2h0QzCqqC",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will Trump publicly disparage Musk within a year of the election?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/EvanDaniel/will-trump-publicly-disparage-musk.",
                    "background": "Within a year of the election, will Trump publicly disparage Elon Musk? \n\nThis could be for any reason, provoked or otherwise. Things like belittling nicknames and personal insults would count, or \"I never liked him anyway\" type statements.\n\nAs this might be somewhat subjective, I won't trade.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-11-09T03:50:46+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-11-06T05:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/EvanDaniel/will-trump-publicly-disparage-musk",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.338199192158807",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "llC0sSgzg8",
                "ygVTjZRGDZvp0EQJ1L53"
            ],
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "llC0sSgzg8",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/Ziddletwix/will-trump-elon-cut-250000-governme.",
                    "background": "Linked to this Kalshi question:\n\nIf there are more than 250000 federal employees no longer working relative to the January 2025 employee count before Jan 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from FRED.\n\nNote the resolution criteria\u2014what matters is the change in the count of federal employees, not whether we can confirm Trump and/or Elon directly fired them. For reference, the specific chart Kalshi links to appears to be this one.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-11-13T02:32:53+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-12-31T07:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/Ziddletwix/will-trump-elon-cut-250000-governme",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.55",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "ygVTjZRGDZvp0EQJ1L53",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will sports betting be legal in California and Texas by 2030?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/10thOfficial/will-sports-betting-be-legal-in-cal.",
                    "background": "Must be able to place both an in-person and online sports bet legally in each state on January 1, 2030.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-01-05T22:00:15+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2030-01-01T04:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/10thOfficial/will-sports-betting-be-legal-in-cal",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.8090903956345371",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "x0N5kcbmFRaaxlj49kzO",
                "cb4s0TO4eh4exBuFyldp"
            ],
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "x0N5kcbmFRaaxlj49kzO",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/MarlonK/will-china-attempt-to-invade-taiwan.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve \"yes\" if there is a Chinese military attack with the intention to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027.\n\nThis question is answered \"No\" if there is:\n\nno military conflict between the two parties\n\na limited military conflict without triggering a major war\n\nOn the one hand, this time span approximately reaches the maximum forecast range (~<5 years), as Philip E. Tetlock in his book Superforecasting: the art and science of prediction. Moreover, 2027 is the year in which, as frequently reported, China wants to seek military capabilities to successfully invade Taiwan without saying that it will act accordingly.\n\n\"[...] Admiral John Aquilino, says China wants to finish modernising its armed forces by 2027. The timeline is shrinking, he told the Senate in March.\n\nhttps://www.economist.com/china/2022/09/01/a-weak-china-may-be-more-warlike-than-a-strong-one\n\nThe year Davidson sees as the potential time horizon for a Chinese attack, 2027, is the centenary of the People\u2019s Liberation Army. In November 2020, the Chinese Communist party said it wanted to \u201censure that the 100-year military building goal is achieved by 2027\u201d, called for faster military modernisation and reiterated the goal of making the Chinese military fit for networked, \u201cintelligentised\u201d warfare. Although those are stock phrases China has used before, the Pentagon calls 2027 a \u201cnew milestone\u201d. \u201cIf realised, the PLA\u2019s 2027 modernisation goals could provide Beijing with more credible military options in a Taiwan contingency,\u201d it said in its annual report on the Chinese military last year. Some analysts doubt Davidson\u2019s date. But one year on from his testimony, government and military officials in both Taipei and Washington say the window from now to 2027 is a genuine threat.\n\n[...]\nOne person familiar with the administration\u2019s assessment of the threat to Taiwan says there is general agreement that China is aiming to have developed the necessary capabilities to attack by 2027, but argues that is very distinct from the question of intent or action.\n\nhttps://www.ft.com/content/0850eb67-1700-47c0-9dbf-3395b4e905fd",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2022-10-05T13:22:49+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2027-12-31T22:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/MarlonK/will-china-attempt-to-invade-taiwan",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.25387607650487504",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "cb4s0TO4eh4exBuFyldp",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will the first person to walk on Mars make it back to Earth?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-the-first-person-to-walk-on-ma-112ceb82478e.",
                    "background": "If there are multiple people in the first mission, any of them getting back to Earth will resolve YES. Must still be alive.\n\nMarket open until it happens \n\nSee: @/strutheo/will-elon-musk-be-the-first-person ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-03-26T16:52:28+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2040-01-02T04:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-the-first-person-to-walk-on-ma-112ceb82478e",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.732485544687271",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O",
                "TryNuKNJXNdiYDCXRpPi"
            ],
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/chrisjbillington/will-the-us-enter-a-recession-by-20.",
                    "background": "Resolves YES if the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee declares, by the end of 2025, US Eastern Time, that the US entered a recession at any point in 2023 or 2024. Resolves NO on 2026-01-01 otherwise.\n\nFor a derivative market that resolves sooner, based on how this market is priced at the end of 2024, see:\n\n@/chrisjbillington/will-manifold-price-a-2024-us-reces \n\nUpdate 2025-16-01 (PST): - Market now resolves NO at the end of 2025 if no recession is retrospectively declared before then. (AI summary of creator comment)",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-02-09T01:29:49+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2026-01-01T12:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/chrisjbillington/will-the-us-enter-a-recession-by-20",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.052268250403709006",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "TryNuKNJXNdiYDCXRpPi",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will AI cause the US Unemployment Rate to exceed 10% before 2030?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/ahalekelly/will-ai-cause-the-us-unemployment-r.",
                    "background": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE\n\nUpdate 2023-12-06:\nI appreciate the discussion here, I know it's an ambiguous question and ultimately it's a judgement call, here's my best attempt at quantifying the intent:\n\n\nThis only resolves Yes if AI increasing worker productivity or taking over people's jobs is directly responsible for at least 3 percentage points of the unemployment rate. If unemployment rate spikes due to something else and then the jobs don't come back because AI takes them over, that counts. I will use sober economic analysis to judge this, and wait at least 6 months after a spike to wait for better data before resolving Yes.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-05-07T02:00:29+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2029-12-31T23:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/ahalekelly/will-ai-cause-the-us-unemployment-r",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.195805371430834",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "28RJ23fKDFMr4Mo8YQ4f",
                "cE1pnjaMDDaOF16V14Y2"
            ],
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "28RJ23fKDFMr4Mo8YQ4f",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will human narration for audiobooks become mostly unnecessary before 2026?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/FranklinBaldo/will-human-narration-for-audiobooks.",
                    "background": "[tweet]",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-10-16T01:53:43+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2026-01-01T03:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/FranklinBaldo/will-human-narration-for-audiobooks",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.7500000000000001",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "cE1pnjaMDDaOF16V14Y2",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will Google Chrome be the most popular browser at the end of 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-google-chrome-remain-the-most-d638290c2b33.",
                    "background": "Resolution according to the \"Usage share of all browsers\" table in this wikipedia entry:\n\nhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Usage_share_of_web_browsers\n\nRelated market:\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/AmmonLam/will-google-chrome-remain-the-most-157ad71d2da0)",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2022-12-28T05:27:18+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2026-01-01T04:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-google-chrome-remain-the-most-d638290c2b33",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.9628204529004871",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "TryNuKNJXNdiYDCXRpPi",
                "8poB8YIlb9QOlkRacyC7"
            ],
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "TryNuKNJXNdiYDCXRpPi",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will AI cause the US Unemployment Rate to exceed 10% before 2030?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/ahalekelly/will-ai-cause-the-us-unemployment-r.",
                    "background": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE\n\nUpdate 2023-12-06:\nI appreciate the discussion here, I know it's an ambiguous question and ultimately it's a judgement call, here's my best attempt at quantifying the intent:\n\n\nThis only resolves Yes if AI increasing worker productivity or taking over people's jobs is directly responsible for at least 3 percentage points of the unemployment rate. If unemployment rate spikes due to something else and then the jobs don't come back because AI takes them over, that counts. I will use sober economic analysis to judge this, and wait at least 6 months after a spike to wait for better data before resolving Yes.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-05-07T02:00:29+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2029-12-31T23:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/ahalekelly/will-ai-cause-the-us-unemployment-r",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.195805371430834",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "8poB8YIlb9QOlkRacyC7",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will the Kenya Universal Basic Income experiment find that UBI significantly reduces local crime?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/DismalScientist/will-the-kenya-universal-basic-inco-594702ae779e.",
                    "background": "Households in two Kenyan counties were randomly assigned to receive (or not) about US$0.75 per adult per day for 2 or 12 years. Transfers began in 2018.\n\nhttps://www.socialscienceregistry.org/trials/1952\n\nAt the bottom of above link is the pre-analysis plan. Local crime measured by responses of village elders to survey questions. \n\nhttps://www.poverty-action.org/study/effects-universal-basic-income-kenya\n\n2023 working paper: https://econweb.ucsd.edu/~pniehaus/papers/UBI_main_paper.pdf\n\nIf the \"Long Term arm\" has significantly less crime (as defined by the PAP) than the Control group, then the market resolves Yes. Otherwise, the market resolves No.\n\nNote that if the p-value is above .05 on this test, then the results will be considered insignificant and the market will resolve No.\n\nThe market will resolve based on the first set of results released by the authors on crime that purports to be running the tests outlined in the PAP.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-01-10T15:40:32+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-07-01T22:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/DismalScientist/will-the-kenya-universal-basic-inco-594702ae779e",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.542376717583492",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "llC0sSgzg8",
                "QtxO4jGNyhDzq5s3NrcG"
            ],
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "llC0sSgzg8",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/Ziddletwix/will-trump-elon-cut-250000-governme.",
                    "background": "Linked to this Kalshi question:\n\nIf there are more than 250000 federal employees no longer working relative to the January 2025 employee count before Jan 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from FRED.\n\nNote the resolution criteria\u2014what matters is the change in the count of federal employees, not whether we can confirm Trump and/or Elon directly fired them. For reference, the specific chart Kalshi links to appears to be this one.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-11-13T02:32:53+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-12-31T07:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/Ziddletwix/will-trump-elon-cut-250000-governme",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.55",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "QtxO4jGNyhDzq5s3NrcG",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will Saudi Arabia abandon (or vastly scale back) the NEOM linear city project by 2028?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/JemBishop/will-saudi-arabia-abandon-the-neom.",
                    "background": "Abandoned in this case will mean:\n\nExplicitly cancelled \n\nShelved indefinitely (like Jeddah Tower) with no measurable progress in design or construction \n\nScaled back to something vastly more modest (at my disgression)\n\nI will try to judge these criteria as objectively as possible, I do have the personal opinion the project is unrealistic though.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-02-18T11:43:07+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2028-12-31T23:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/JemBishop/will-saudi-arabia-abandon-the-neom",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.902388736969512",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "yfyPBZNkCMZiffCyICSj",
                "Sqnu2sPyuC"
            ],
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "yfyPBZNkCMZiffCyICSj",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "\ud83d\udc4d\ud83d\udc4e Manifold Leadership Approval Rating [Market Index]",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/strutheo/manifold-leadership-approval-rating.",
                    "background": "Use mana to let the team know what you think about how they're running the website. 100% means everyone is happy with the direction Manifold is going and the team behind it, and 0% means something has probably gone tragically wrong. \n\nDoes not impact profit rankings\n\nYou get your mana back through loans over time\n\nPermanently open market, will not resolve.\n\nOther Approval Ratings:\n\n@/strutheo/what-will-manifolds-approval-rating \n\n@/strutheo/what-will-manifolds-approval-rating-69a6850abbfb \n\n@/strutheo/what-will-manifolds-approval-rating-d7689b01293f \n\n@/strutheo/what-will-manifolds-approval-rating-da311ac4ea95 ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-01-11T05:36:02+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2525-01-01T05:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/strutheo/manifold-leadership-approval-rating",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.62",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "Sqnu2sPyuC",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will at least three of Trump's cabinet nominees fail?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/RichardHanania/will-at-least-three-of-trumps-cabin.",
                    "background": "This market will settle as YES if at least three individuals that Trump nominates for cabinet positions that must be confirmed by the Senate are either withdrawn or voted down in the Senate. Cabinet officials refers to the 15 heads of government agencies, along with cabinet-level officials, which for the purposes of this market includes the Administrator of the EPA, Director of National Intelligence, Director of OMB, Director of CIA, United States Trade Representative, Ambassador to the UN, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Administrator of the SBA, and Director of OSTP. \n\nA nomination occurs as soon as President Trump announces an intention to nominate someone. No other step is necessary to be taken. No official step must be taken to withdraw a nominee either. Credible reporting that the administration will not longer be pursuing the nomination is enough. \n\nThis market will settle as NO as soon as all the relevant positions are confirmed, or if the conditions of YES have not been met by March 31, 2025.  \n\nThe nominees that fail need not be all nominated for different positions. If, for example, Trump has three Attorney General nominees that fail, this market will resolve as YES. \n\nIf Donald Trump does not become president or stops being president, this market resolves according to what happens to the nominees of whoever happens to be president during the relevant time period. The nominees of two or more people serving as president will be counted together. If, for example, Trump appoints an AG who is withdrawn and then Vance becomes president and two of his nominees are withdrawn, this market will settle as YES. ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-11-20T17:56:32+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-04-01T06:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/RichardHanania/will-at-least-three-of-trumps-cabin",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.032147986278168006",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "dcgscdEUc0",
                "WApsfsjdZXrGDA1OPLs5"
            ],
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "dcgscdEUc0",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will The Russia-Ukraine War End Within 90 days of Trump Taking Office? [see description]",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/will-trump-end-the-ukraine-war-with.",
                    "background": "This market resolves YES if:\n\nAn armistice, ceasefire, or negotiated settlement is announced by both Ukraine and Russia regarding the ongoing war in Ukraine at any point between the Associated Press calling the election for Donald Trump, and April 19, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nTo count toward the resolution of this market, an armistice, ceasefire, and/or negotiated settlement must be indicative of at least the temporary end of the Ukraine-Russia military conflict, must pertain to all theaters of military conflict between the two countries, and be declared through official channels by both countries. The specific date that such an agreement will take effect is not relevant to the resolution of this market. The only requirement is that the agreement must be announced within this market's specified timeframe.\n\n\nTo count toward the resolution of this market, an armistice, ceasefire, and/or negotiated settlement must be indicative of at least the temporary end of the Ukraine-Russia military conflict, must pertain to all theaters of military conflict between the two countries, and be declared through official channels by both countries.\n\nSee also Polymarket's market.\n\nSee also:\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/Bayesian/what-will-happen-during-trumps-seco?play=true)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Bayesian/will-trump-end-the-israelhamas-war?play=true)Update 2025-07-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Comprehensive Ceasefire: A ceasefire that means 'nobody can fight at all for the next week' would count as a temporary end to the conflict.\n\nLocalized Ceasefire: A ceasefire that means 'no fighting in this little area but everywhere else is fine' would not count.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-11-06T18:17:32+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-04-21T03:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/will-trump-end-the-ukraine-war-with",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.254332216419599",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "WApsfsjdZXrGDA1OPLs5",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will there be a robot uprising by 2035?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/Ophiuchus/will-there-be-a-robot-uprising-by-2.",
                    "background": "(Inspired by 2004\u2019s \u201cI, Robot\u201d starring Will Smith.)\n\nWill something resembling a robot uprising (as seen in the film) occur by EOY 2035?\n\nFor the purposes of this market I am loosening the resolution criteria a bit more than what literally occurs in the movie\u2014the \u201cuprising\u201d can happen in just one city, humans do not necessarily need to die or be seriously injured, and an AGI does not need to be the mastermind of the rebellion. For example, if some crazy mad haxx0r managed to seize control of all Tesla vehicles within a certain city and have the cars drive themselves outside of city limits for a full day while city infrastructure was being reprogrammed by him (or something) that would count as a \u201cyes.\u201d \n\nEssentially:\n\n1) Widespread disruption due to automata failing to fulfill their normal tasks\n\n2) Disruptions cover at least one major metropolitan area\n\n3) Disruptions are due to intent from either AGI or a malicious human (internal idiocy would not count e.g. Elon Musk deciding to do a little trolling in DC for a week)\n\n4) Disruptions in automata go on for at least 24 hours\n\n5) The actions of the automata are not recognized as being directly to the material benefit of either their owners and/or human society at large: this means that only one condition here needs to be satisfied. \n\nExamples:\n\n5a) a robot uprising may occur against the owners\u2019 short-term interests (they stop doing the laundry without permission or something) in favor of humanity\u2019s long-term interests (they work together to save the last key species in an ecosystem essential for biosphere regulation).\n\n5b) a robot uprising may occur in the owners\u2019 short-term interests but counter to those of humanity as a whole, I.e. a small group of wealthy robot owners command their bots to destroy any and all assets of unionized workers employed in their factories.\n\n5c) a robot uprising may occur wherein agricultural robots act against owners\u2019 short-term interests by setting crops on fire (destroying profits) and humanity\u2019s long-term interests (prolonged hunger/shortages due to reduced agricultural output).\n\nAny of the above three scenarios would satisfy condition #5, but conditions #1-4 must also be satisfied to resolve as a \u201cyes.\u201d\n\nMovie for context:\n\n(https://www.youtube.com/embed/7Dlo-VB0-HI?si=avgO-jZTUPj0WCsy)",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-12-21T22:57:09+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2036-01-01T06:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/Ophiuchus/will-there-be-a-robot-uprising-by-2",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.095092206156259",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "hh2bXhwKDTioZ7KtGKfC",
                "HQObM8ZeuU0YQ3HUdGZ2"
            ],
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "hh2bXhwKDTioZ7KtGKfC",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will we get AGI before 2030?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2030.",
                    "background": "Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being. Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can. It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience.\n\nResolves as YES if such a system is created and publicly announced before January 1st 2030\n\nHere are markets with the same criteria:\n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/did-agi-emerge-in-2023 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2025 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2026-3d9bfaa96a61 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2027-d7b5f2b00ace \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2028-ff560f9e9346 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2029-ef1c187271ed \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2030 (this question)\n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2031 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2032 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2033 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2034 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2033-34ec8e1d00fd \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2036 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2037 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2038 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2039 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2040 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2041 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2042@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2043 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2044 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2045 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2046 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2047 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2048 \n\nRelated markets:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2027 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2028 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2029 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2030 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2031 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2032 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2033 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2034 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2035 \n\nOther questions for 2030:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-217e4b895daa \n\n@/RemNi/will-earth-have-a-space-elevator-be-292c3a01b029 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-dd5dc0576ff4 \n\n@/RemNi/will-vladimir-putin-be-the-leader-o-52c0e8d8ea7f \n\n@/RemNi/will-xi-jinping-be-the-leader-of-ch-e48b02725ad9 \n\n@/RemNi/will-kim-jong-un-be-the-leader-of-n-32f2cbfe20ce@/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor \n\n@/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-mars-before-20-b78c73592440 \n\n@/RemNi/will-the-dancing-plague-return-befo-d5d68a482594 \n\nSolar system exploration questions:\n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-v-4a5c4940b285@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-l \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-m-76d02d43aa2c \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-j-d94ab8bbb580 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-s-78e59fa4805f \n\n@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-u-b7061eeb1c8c \n\n@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-n-80f53d888d58 \n\nOther points of reference for AGI:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-vladimir-put \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-xi-jinping-s \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent-549ed4a31a05 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-room \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-discover \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-fusio \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-1m-humanoid ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-12-07T22:20:23+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2030-03-01T22:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2030",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.608328724109747",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "HQObM8ZeuU0YQ3HUdGZ2",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will we get AGI before 2028?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2028-ff560f9e9346.",
                    "background": "Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being. Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can. It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience.\n\nResolves as YES if such a system is created and publicly announced before January 1st 2028\n\nHere are markets with the same criteria:\n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/did-agi-emerge-in-2023 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2025 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2026-3d9bfaa96a61 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2027-d7b5f2b00ace \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2028-ff560f9e9346 (this question)\n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2029-ef1c187271ed \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2030 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2031 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2032 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2033 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2034 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2033-34ec8e1d00fd \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2036 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2037 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2038 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2039 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2040 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2041@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2042 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2043 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2044 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2045 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2046 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2047 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2048 \n\nRelated markets:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2027 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2028 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2029 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2030 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2031 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2032 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2033 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2034 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2035 \n\nOther questions for 2028:\n\n@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-l-069166147734 \n\n@/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-again-onto-the-5dd99d5a1e48@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-5553c437e8a4 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-3ccf49dbe194 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-f5a1947c172a \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-7e534a91d188@/RemNi/will-the-dancing-plague-return-befo-0434665d77eb \n\n@/RemNi/will-1m-humanoid-robots-be-manufact-a408a64f3756 \n\nOther points of reference for AGI:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-vladimir-put \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-xi-jinping-s \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent-549ed4a31a05 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-room \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-discover \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-fusio \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-1m-humanoid ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-12-08T19:32:47+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2028-03-03T22:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2028-ff560f9e9346",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.467269336365398",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "shjGGdUWayk0YI1n8Z7A",
                "QVCzHBisAcKNfHYEAB4G"
            ],
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "shjGGdUWayk0YI1n8Z7A",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will a Monopoly movie release by end of August 2026?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/Conflux/will-a-monopoly-movie-release-by-en.",
                    "background": "https://www.ign.com/articles/monopoly-movie-back-on-the-board-after-lionsgate-acquires-eone-from-hasbro\n\nTo count for this market, it must be branded as the official (Hasbro-endorsed) Monopoly movie, tell a Monopoly-universe story (not like a documentary about Monopoly tournaments - something like Barbie or The Lego Movie), and be released in the next three years and change (by end of August 2026).\n\nGeneral policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.\u00a0 \u00a0\n\n[link preview]",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-08-04T04:16:25+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2026-09-01T06:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/Conflux/will-a-monopoly-movie-release-by-en",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.554365549975801",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "QVCzHBisAcKNfHYEAB4G",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will GTA VI get delayed again?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/LiquidIsPerson3/will-gta-vi-get-delayed-again.",
                    "background": "GTA",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-02-11T00:04:13+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2026-01-01T04:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/LiquidIsPerson3/will-gta-vi-get-delayed-again",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.49797053660613705",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "Da8HD0uQIKR9M9L0Ajmq",
                "cb4s0TO4eh4exBuFyldp"
            ],
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "Da8HD0uQIKR9M9L0Ajmq",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will Drake be found guilty of a crime before the end of 2028?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-drake-be-found-guilty-of-a-cri.",
                    "background": "Must be charged indicted and found guilty of at least one crime even if it is not the original one he is charged with\n\n@/strutheo/will-drake-be-formally-charged-with ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-05-04T16:34:30+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2029-01-01T04:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-drake-be-found-guilty-of-a-cri",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.213895847610544",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "cb4s0TO4eh4exBuFyldp",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will the first person to walk on Mars make it back to Earth?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-the-first-person-to-walk-on-ma-112ceb82478e.",
                    "background": "If there are multiple people in the first mission, any of them getting back to Earth will resolve YES. Must still be alive.\n\nMarket open until it happens \n\nSee: @/strutheo/will-elon-musk-be-the-first-person ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-03-26T16:52:28+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2040-01-02T04:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-the-first-person-to-walk-on-ma-112ceb82478e",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.732485544687271",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "TryNuKNJXNdiYDCXRpPi",
                "hzKZve2gaJEdm6YuxOLs"
            ],
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "TryNuKNJXNdiYDCXRpPi",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will AI cause the US Unemployment Rate to exceed 10% before 2030?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/ahalekelly/will-ai-cause-the-us-unemployment-r.",
                    "background": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE\n\nUpdate 2023-12-06:\nI appreciate the discussion here, I know it's an ambiguous question and ultimately it's a judgement call, here's my best attempt at quantifying the intent:\n\n\nThis only resolves Yes if AI increasing worker productivity or taking over people's jobs is directly responsible for at least 3 percentage points of the unemployment rate. If unemployment rate spikes due to something else and then the jobs don't come back because AI takes them over, that counts. I will use sober economic analysis to judge this, and wait at least 6 months after a spike to wait for better data before resolving Yes.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-05-07T02:00:29+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2029-12-31T23:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/ahalekelly/will-ai-cause-the-us-unemployment-r",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.195805371430834",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "hzKZve2gaJEdm6YuxOLs",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will Tesla become the top-selling car manufacturer in 2027?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/Mikelon797/will-tesla-become-the-topselling-ca.",
                    "background": "Will Tesla be the car company which sell the most cars by the end of 2027? (We need to wait until financial results from the biggest automakers)",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-08-19T11:35:13+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2028-03-01T22:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/Mikelon797/will-tesla-become-the-topselling-ca",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.23082365079972003",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "bY7teJbG37L9ale1IQ4m",
                "NYISJsNFjI3aIMGExGgo"
            ],
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "bY7teJbG37L9ale1IQ4m",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "By 2030, will there be a cure to aging?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/DanielKilian/by-2030-will-there-be-a-cure-to-agi.",
                    "background": "",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2022-11-19T20:06:20+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2029-12-31T23:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/DanielKilian/by-2030-will-there-be-a-cure-to-agi",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.12265246598748801",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "NYISJsNFjI3aIMGExGgo",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will Neuralink successfully enable a blind person to see again using its technology by 2030?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/GabeGarboden/will-neuralink-successfully-enable-c5092c5cd2a1.",
                    "background": "Resolves Yes if there's credible news coverage of a Neuralink patient regaining the ability to see using Neuralink's tech.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-01-21T02:42:08+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2030-01-02T07:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/GabeGarboden/will-neuralink-successfully-enable-c5092c5cd2a1",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.8599999999999991",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "hh2bXhwKDTioZ7KtGKfC",
                "YREnvVjBXi5qQFCQhzSv"
            ],
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "hh2bXhwKDTioZ7KtGKfC",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will we get AGI before 2030?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2030.",
                    "background": "Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being. Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can. It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience.\n\nResolves as YES if such a system is created and publicly announced before January 1st 2030\n\nHere are markets with the same criteria:\n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/did-agi-emerge-in-2023 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2025 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2026-3d9bfaa96a61 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2027-d7b5f2b00ace \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2028-ff560f9e9346 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2029-ef1c187271ed \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2030 (this question)\n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2031 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2032 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2033 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2034 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2033-34ec8e1d00fd \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2036 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2037 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2038 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2039 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2040 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2041 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2042@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2043 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2044 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2045 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2046 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2047 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2048 \n\nRelated markets:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2027 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2028 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2029 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2030 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2031 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2032 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2033 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2034 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2035 \n\nOther questions for 2030:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-217e4b895daa \n\n@/RemNi/will-earth-have-a-space-elevator-be-292c3a01b029 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-dd5dc0576ff4 \n\n@/RemNi/will-vladimir-putin-be-the-leader-o-52c0e8d8ea7f \n\n@/RemNi/will-xi-jinping-be-the-leader-of-ch-e48b02725ad9 \n\n@/RemNi/will-kim-jong-un-be-the-leader-of-n-32f2cbfe20ce@/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor \n\n@/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-mars-before-20-b78c73592440 \n\n@/RemNi/will-the-dancing-plague-return-befo-d5d68a482594 \n\nSolar system exploration questions:\n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-v-4a5c4940b285@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-l \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-m-76d02d43aa2c \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-j-d94ab8bbb580 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-s-78e59fa4805f \n\n@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-u-b7061eeb1c8c \n\n@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-n-80f53d888d58 \n\nOther points of reference for AGI:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-vladimir-put \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-xi-jinping-s \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent-549ed4a31a05 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-room \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-discover \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-fusio \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-1m-humanoid ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-12-07T22:20:23+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2030-03-01T22:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2030",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.608328724109747",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "YREnvVjBXi5qQFCQhzSv",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "In 2028, will at least 350,000 (1/1000) Americans be talking at least monthly to an AI therapist or coach?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-at-least-350000-11000.",
                    "background": "I will try to find estimates of how many people are doing this in order to resolve it, but no guarantees.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-02-20T22:55:39+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2028-01-02T07:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-at-least-350000-11000",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.7643144691493491",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "x0N5kcbmFRaaxlj49kzO",
                "0A8xESzefvrCpd9RHEJf"
            ],
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "x0N5kcbmFRaaxlj49kzO",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/MarlonK/will-china-attempt-to-invade-taiwan.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve \"yes\" if there is a Chinese military attack with the intention to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027.\n\nThis question is answered \"No\" if there is:\n\nno military conflict between the two parties\n\na limited military conflict without triggering a major war\n\nOn the one hand, this time span approximately reaches the maximum forecast range (~<5 years), as Philip E. Tetlock in his book Superforecasting: the art and science of prediction. Moreover, 2027 is the year in which, as frequently reported, China wants to seek military capabilities to successfully invade Taiwan without saying that it will act accordingly.\n\n\"[...] Admiral John Aquilino, says China wants to finish modernising its armed forces by 2027. The timeline is shrinking, he told the Senate in March.\n\nhttps://www.economist.com/china/2022/09/01/a-weak-china-may-be-more-warlike-than-a-strong-one\n\nThe year Davidson sees as the potential time horizon for a Chinese attack, 2027, is the centenary of the People\u2019s Liberation Army. In November 2020, the Chinese Communist party said it wanted to \u201censure that the 100-year military building goal is achieved by 2027\u201d, called for faster military modernisation and reiterated the goal of making the Chinese military fit for networked, \u201cintelligentised\u201d warfare. Although those are stock phrases China has used before, the Pentagon calls 2027 a \u201cnew milestone\u201d. \u201cIf realised, the PLA\u2019s 2027 modernisation goals could provide Beijing with more credible military options in a Taiwan contingency,\u201d it said in its annual report on the Chinese military last year. Some analysts doubt Davidson\u2019s date. But one year on from his testimony, government and military officials in both Taipei and Washington say the window from now to 2027 is a genuine threat.\n\n[...]\nOne person familiar with the administration\u2019s assessment of the threat to Taiwan says there is general agreement that China is aiming to have developed the necessary capabilities to attack by 2027, but argues that is very distinct from the question of intent or action.\n\nhttps://www.ft.com/content/0850eb67-1700-47c0-9dbf-3395b4e905fd",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2022-10-05T13:22:49+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2027-12-31T22:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/MarlonK/will-china-attempt-to-invade-taiwan",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.25387607650487504",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "0A8xESzefvrCpd9RHEJf",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will Ukraine join NATO before Family Guy ends?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-ukraine-join-nato-before-famil.",
                    "background": "",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-03-07T19:59:30+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2101-01-01T04:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-ukraine-join-nato-before-famil",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.455696834648098",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "AtLFLzDlSERmVcSdUapy",
                "ijfFvS9a12mU7Ahqq3JI"
            ],
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "AtLFLzDlSERmVcSdUapy",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will the upcoming Minecraft movie make over a billion dollars at the worldwide box office?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/asmith/will-the-upcoming-minecraft-movie-m.",
                    "background": "Not counting re-releases. Will push back resolve date if necessary.\n\nEdit: if by some chance this movie doesn't get a wide release in theaters... I will resolve N/A.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-12-17T21:03:14+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2030-12-25T07:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/asmith/will-the-upcoming-minecraft-movie-m",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.199506396107916",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "ijfFvS9a12mU7Ahqq3JI",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/Shump/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener-e7f99acbe19d.",
                    "background": "Same as the main market but the AI must only be at the level of the worst filmmakers, rather than the best. So instead of a Marvel movie level of quality, think The Room level of quality. That's the yardstick that I will be using. Alternatively it can be any other well-known bad movie, like Birdemic or Who Killed Captain Alex. It doesn't need to have the \"so bad it's good\" qualities of The Room, but it needs to have a minimally coherent plot structure and cinematography. It must not be too painful for humans to watch the entire thing, and it needs to have the basics like characters say and do things that advance the plot, at least usually.\n\nMain market:\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener)",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-01-28T04:34:11+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2028-01-02T07:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/Shump/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener-e7f99acbe19d",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.659999999999999",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "sis542tw6o",
                "1BskFw5s4FlnaJET30ai"
            ],
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "sis542tw6o",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will there be consensus on who Dwarkesh's \"biggest guest yet\" was, before Q3 2025? (Resolves to poll)",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/will-there-be-consensus-on-who-dwar.",
                    "background": "For context, see this tweet.\n\nWithin the next few months, I'm going to be releasing an episode with by far my biggest guest yet.\n\nIf you're interesting in sponsoring it, shoot me an email at sponsor@dwarkeshpatel.com\n\nSee also @/Ziddletwix/will-manifold-agree-that-dwarkeshs \n\nI think it's not clear that these markets will be unambiguous and satisfactorily resolved, therefore I created this one.\n\nResolution\n\n\u200c\nA few separate possibilities to resolution here\n\n1) See: Who is Dwarkesh's upcoming \"biggest guest yet\"? Once that market resolves, I will close this one and run a poll for one week, using the [NAME] that it resolved to.\n\nThe phrasing will be something along the lines of \"Do you agree that [NAME] was the person Dwarkesh alluded  to with the 'by far the biggest guest yet' tweet?\", with options \"Agree\" and \"Disagree\".\n\nIf \"Agree\" has \u226580% of votes, this market resolves YES. If it has less this market resolves to NO.\n\n2) The above market does not resolve before Q2 2025, but one alternative has traded at \u226580% consistently over a week (brief dents below 80% don't matter) --> Resolves to YES \n\n3) Toward the end of Q2 2025, neither of the above has happened. I run a poll similar to what's described above, with my best guess at a name. Resolves to YES if \u226580% \"Agree\" on the suggested name.\n\n4) Dwarkesh unambiguously confirms who the person referred to is/was, this resolves to YES immediately.\n\n5) Unaccounted for by me, but very reasonable scenarios, that I think should resolve to YES or NO, outside of the above.\n\n\nFeel free to suggest improvements to these criteria and conditions, or ask for clarifications.\nI will not trade in this market, to better allow for fair resolution.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-08-23T18:08:23+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-07-01T06:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/will-there-be-consensus-on-who-dwar",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.45161636055118604",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "1BskFw5s4FlnaJET30ai",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will Destiny talk to Joe Rogan before the end of 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-destiny-talk-to-joe-rogan-befo-eb498a6dc6a1.",
                    "background": "@/strutheo/will-destiny-talk-to-joe-rogan-befo-9f189acf8fa4 ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-03-11T17:54:41+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2026-01-01T04:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-destiny-talk-to-joe-rogan-befo-eb498a6dc6a1",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.071754778451823",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "4jXeV1fX6R9JJEgcSMER",
                "8poB8YIlb9QOlkRacyC7"
            ],
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "4jXeV1fX6R9JJEgcSMER",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will prediction markets become mainstream by 2028?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/Shump/will-prediction-markets-become-main.",
                    "background": "Resolves YES if at least one prediction market platform has more than 1 million daily active users by 2028. Also resolves YES if an online sports betting platform has those engagement numbers AND has a substainstial component that is about politics, science, and other real-world events. So for example, I don't think that Betfair currently counts but it might in the future.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-10-03T03:22:12+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2029-01-01T07:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/Shump/will-prediction-markets-become-main",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.5993761295483",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "8poB8YIlb9QOlkRacyC7",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will the Kenya Universal Basic Income experiment find that UBI significantly reduces local crime?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/DismalScientist/will-the-kenya-universal-basic-inco-594702ae779e.",
                    "background": "Households in two Kenyan counties were randomly assigned to receive (or not) about US$0.75 per adult per day for 2 or 12 years. Transfers began in 2018.\n\nhttps://www.socialscienceregistry.org/trials/1952\n\nAt the bottom of above link is the pre-analysis plan. Local crime measured by responses of village elders to survey questions. \n\nhttps://www.poverty-action.org/study/effects-universal-basic-income-kenya\n\n2023 working paper: https://econweb.ucsd.edu/~pniehaus/papers/UBI_main_paper.pdf\n\nIf the \"Long Term arm\" has significantly less crime (as defined by the PAP) than the Control group, then the market resolves Yes. Otherwise, the market resolves No.\n\nNote that if the p-value is above .05 on this test, then the results will be considered insignificant and the market will resolve No.\n\nThe market will resolve based on the first set of results released by the authors on crime that purports to be running the tests outlined in the PAP.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-01-10T15:40:32+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-07-01T22:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/DismalScientist/will-the-kenya-universal-basic-inco-594702ae779e",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.542376717583492",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "G3mFASghFttmIxkNVU7n",
                "sis542tw6o"
            ],
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "G3mFASghFttmIxkNVU7n",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "If Leonardo DiCaprio has a girlfriend after Vittoria Ceretti, will she be less than half DiCaprio's age at the time?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/strutheo/if-leonardo-dicaprio-has-a-girlfrie.",
                    "background": "",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-03-10T07:11:27+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2051-01-01T04:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/strutheo/if-leonardo-dicaprio-has-a-girlfrie",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.677531310347337",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "sis542tw6o",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will there be consensus on who Dwarkesh's \"biggest guest yet\" was, before Q3 2025? (Resolves to poll)",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/will-there-be-consensus-on-who-dwar.",
                    "background": "For context, see this tweet.\n\nWithin the next few months, I'm going to be releasing an episode with by far my biggest guest yet.\n\nIf you're interesting in sponsoring it, shoot me an email at sponsor@dwarkeshpatel.com\n\nSee also @/Ziddletwix/will-manifold-agree-that-dwarkeshs \n\nI think it's not clear that these markets will be unambiguous and satisfactorily resolved, therefore I created this one.\n\nResolution\n\n\u200c\nA few separate possibilities to resolution here\n\n1) See: Who is Dwarkesh's upcoming \"biggest guest yet\"? Once that market resolves, I will close this one and run a poll for one week, using the [NAME] that it resolved to.\n\nThe phrasing will be something along the lines of \"Do you agree that [NAME] was the person Dwarkesh alluded  to with the 'by far the biggest guest yet' tweet?\", with options \"Agree\" and \"Disagree\".\n\nIf \"Agree\" has \u226580% of votes, this market resolves YES. If it has less this market resolves to NO.\n\n2) The above market does not resolve before Q2 2025, but one alternative has traded at \u226580% consistently over a week (brief dents below 80% don't matter) --> Resolves to YES \n\n3) Toward the end of Q2 2025, neither of the above has happened. I run a poll similar to what's described above, with my best guess at a name. Resolves to YES if \u226580% \"Agree\" on the suggested name.\n\n4) Dwarkesh unambiguously confirms who the person referred to is/was, this resolves to YES immediately.\n\n5) Unaccounted for by me, but very reasonable scenarios, that I think should resolve to YES or NO, outside of the above.\n\n\nFeel free to suggest improvements to these criteria and conditions, or ask for clarifications.\nI will not trade in this market, to better allow for fair resolution.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-08-23T18:08:23+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-07-01T06:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/will-there-be-consensus-on-who-dwar",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.45161636055118604",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "hh2bXhwKDTioZ7KtGKfC",
                "Q64BBTJSHWQfhovq5bnA"
            ],
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "hh2bXhwKDTioZ7KtGKfC",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will we get AGI before 2030?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2030.",
                    "background": "Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being. Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can. It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience.\n\nResolves as YES if such a system is created and publicly announced before January 1st 2030\n\nHere are markets with the same criteria:\n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/did-agi-emerge-in-2023 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2025 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2026-3d9bfaa96a61 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2027-d7b5f2b00ace \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2028-ff560f9e9346 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2029-ef1c187271ed \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2030 (this question)\n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2031 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2032 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2033 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2034 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2033-34ec8e1d00fd \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2036 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2037 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2038 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2039 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2040 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2041 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2042@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2043 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2044 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2045 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2046 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2047 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2048 \n\nRelated markets:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2027 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2028 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2029 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2030 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2031 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2032 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2033 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2034 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2035 \n\nOther questions for 2030:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-217e4b895daa \n\n@/RemNi/will-earth-have-a-space-elevator-be-292c3a01b029 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-dd5dc0576ff4 \n\n@/RemNi/will-vladimir-putin-be-the-leader-o-52c0e8d8ea7f \n\n@/RemNi/will-xi-jinping-be-the-leader-of-ch-e48b02725ad9 \n\n@/RemNi/will-kim-jong-un-be-the-leader-of-n-32f2cbfe20ce@/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor \n\n@/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-mars-before-20-b78c73592440 \n\n@/RemNi/will-the-dancing-plague-return-befo-d5d68a482594 \n\nSolar system exploration questions:\n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-v-4a5c4940b285@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-l \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-m-76d02d43aa2c \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-j-d94ab8bbb580 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-s-78e59fa4805f \n\n@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-u-b7061eeb1c8c \n\n@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-n-80f53d888d58 \n\nOther points of reference for AGI:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-vladimir-put \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-xi-jinping-s \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent-549ed4a31a05 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-room \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-discover \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-fusio \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-1m-humanoid ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-12-07T22:20:23+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2030-03-01T22:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2030",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.608328724109747",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "Q64BBTJSHWQfhovq5bnA",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-a-reliable-and-general-househo.",
                    "background": "The development of general-purpose robots capable of performing household chores has been a long-standing goal in the field of robotics. Such a robot would need to be versatile, adaptable, and capable of handling a wide range of tasks and environments commonly found in American homes. Achieving this level of capability remains a significant challenge.\n\nWill a general household robot capable of performing household chores to a high level of reliability be developed before January 1st, 2030?\n\nResolution Criteria:\n\nThis question will resolve to \"YES\" if, before January 1st, 2030, a general household robot is developed anywhere in the world and has been publicly and credibly documented to have:\n\nDemonstrated the ability to autonomously navigate and operate within a variety of residential environments, including:\n\na. Identifying and avoiding obstacles, such as furniture and pets. \nb. Maneuvering through doorways, hallways, and multi-level spaces. \nc. Adapting to different floor types and surface conditions (e.g., carpet, tile, hardwood). \nd. Recognizing and safely handling fragile objects, such as glassware or delicate appliances.\n\nExhibited proficiency in performing a comprehensive range of standard household chores, including at least 5 of these complete chores:\n\na. Cleaning tasks, such as vacuuming, sweeping, mopping, dusting, and tidying up clutter. \nb. Laundry tasks, including sorting, washing, drying, folding, ironing, and putting away clothes. \nc. Dishwashing tasks, like loading and unloading a dishwasher, or washing, drying, and putting away dishes by hand. \nd. Cooking tasks, such as meal planning, ingredient preparation, cooking, and serving. \ne. Maintaining indoor plants, including watering, pruning, and repotting. \nf. Basic pet care, such as feeding, grooming, and cleaning up after pets.\n\nShown the ability to adapt to user preferences and instructions, including:\n\na. Learning and adjusting to individual household routines and schedules. \nb. Following specific instructions regarding cleaning methods, food preparation, or pet care. \nc. Recognizing and responding to verbal and non-verbal cues from household members.\n\nDemonstrated a high level of reliability and safety while performing these tasks, with:\n\na. Consistently high-quality results that meet or exceed the performance of most humans performing the same tasks, within 500% of the average time it takes humans to perform these tasks.\nb. A low rate of errors, accidents, or damages to the home or its contents. More specificially, it is required that, when given full instructions, the robot can fail no more than 5% of the time on average while completing a designated chore. A fail counts as any error that would require human intervention to fix, as otherwise the chore would not be completed to even a minimum level of satisfaction.\nc. The ability to recognize and avoid potentially dangerous situations, such as electrical hazards or fire risks.\n\nThe development must be accompanied by independent reviews, testimonials, or high-quality case studies documenting the robot's performance in real-world residential settings, demonstrating its ability to perform tasks consistently and effectively, with a high level of satisfaction among users.\n\nI will use my discretion when resolving this question, possibly in consultation with experts, to ensure that the criteria are met and that the general household robot is indeed capable of performing standard household chores to a high level of reliability.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-04-27T19:21:22+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2030-01-02T07:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-a-reliable-and-general-househo",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.6581893039782231",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "AZNPqIQuA0",
                "QtxO4jGNyhDzq5s3NrcG"
            ],
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "AZNPqIQuA0",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will the fertility rate of South Korea increase from 2023 to 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/TonyGao/will-the-fertility-rate-of-south-ko.",
                    "background": "Curious if the martial law attempt will indirectly increase fertility, by potential mechanisms like sense of national crisis or political gender reconciliation.\n\nSource will be https://www.index.go.kr/unify/idx-info.do?pop=1&idxCd=5061\n\nNumber to beat is 0.72 from 2023. If 2025 is higher than that, resolves Yes, otherwise No.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-12-03T16:49:56+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2026-01-01T15:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/TonyGao/will-the-fertility-rate-of-south-ko",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.23161812972339202",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "QtxO4jGNyhDzq5s3NrcG",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will Saudi Arabia abandon (or vastly scale back) the NEOM linear city project by 2028?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/JemBishop/will-saudi-arabia-abandon-the-neom.",
                    "background": "Abandoned in this case will mean:\n\nExplicitly cancelled \n\nShelved indefinitely (like Jeddah Tower) with no measurable progress in design or construction \n\nScaled back to something vastly more modest (at my disgression)\n\nI will try to judge these criteria as objectively as possible, I do have the personal opinion the project is unrealistic though.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-02-18T11:43:07+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2028-12-31T23:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/JemBishop/will-saudi-arabia-abandon-the-neom",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.902388736969512",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "h2h0QzCqqC",
                "ygVTjZRGDZvp0EQJ1L53"
            ],
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "h2h0QzCqqC",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will Trump publicly disparage Musk within a year of the election?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/EvanDaniel/will-trump-publicly-disparage-musk.",
                    "background": "Within a year of the election, will Trump publicly disparage Elon Musk? \n\nThis could be for any reason, provoked or otherwise. Things like belittling nicknames and personal insults would count, or \"I never liked him anyway\" type statements.\n\nAs this might be somewhat subjective, I won't trade.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-11-09T03:50:46+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-11-06T05:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/EvanDaniel/will-trump-publicly-disparage-musk",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.338199192158807",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "ygVTjZRGDZvp0EQJ1L53",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will sports betting be legal in California and Texas by 2030?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/10thOfficial/will-sports-betting-be-legal-in-cal.",
                    "background": "Must be able to place both an in-person and online sports bet legally in each state on January 1, 2030.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-01-05T22:00:15+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2030-01-01T04:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/10thOfficial/will-sports-betting-be-legal-in-cal",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.8090903956345371",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "szUrSgdNQDBxn14E5D7E",
                "bY7teJbG37L9ale1IQ4m"
            ],
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "szUrSgdNQDBxn14E5D7E",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will Noam Chomsky become a centenarian?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-noam-chomsky-become-a-centenar-edd6fae0d611.",
                    "background": "Born December 7, 1928",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-02-29T01:44:08+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2028-12-09T04:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-noam-chomsky-become-a-centenar-edd6fae0d611",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.100530115296069",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "bY7teJbG37L9ale1IQ4m",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "By 2030, will there be a cure to aging?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/DanielKilian/by-2030-will-there-be-a-cure-to-agi.",
                    "background": "",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2022-11-19T20:06:20+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2029-12-31T23:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/DanielKilian/by-2030-will-there-be-a-cure-to-agi",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.12265246598748801",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "ijfFvS9a12mU7Ahqq3JI",
                "QVCzHBisAcKNfHYEAB4G"
            ],
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "ijfFvS9a12mU7Ahqq3JI",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/Shump/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener-e7f99acbe19d.",
                    "background": "Same as the main market but the AI must only be at the level of the worst filmmakers, rather than the best. So instead of a Marvel movie level of quality, think The Room level of quality. That's the yardstick that I will be using. Alternatively it can be any other well-known bad movie, like Birdemic or Who Killed Captain Alex. It doesn't need to have the \"so bad it's good\" qualities of The Room, but it needs to have a minimally coherent plot structure and cinematography. It must not be too painful for humans to watch the entire thing, and it needs to have the basics like characters say and do things that advance the plot, at least usually.\n\nMain market:\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener)",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-01-28T04:34:11+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2028-01-02T07:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/Shump/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener-e7f99acbe19d",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.659999999999999",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "QVCzHBisAcKNfHYEAB4G",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will GTA VI get delayed again?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/LiquidIsPerson3/will-gta-vi-get-delayed-again.",
                    "background": "GTA",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-02-11T00:04:13+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2026-01-01T04:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/LiquidIsPerson3/will-gta-vi-get-delayed-again",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.49797053660613705",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "AZNPqIQuA0",
                "Sqnu2sPyuC"
            ],
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "AZNPqIQuA0",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will the fertility rate of South Korea increase from 2023 to 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/TonyGao/will-the-fertility-rate-of-south-ko.",
                    "background": "Curious if the martial law attempt will indirectly increase fertility, by potential mechanisms like sense of national crisis or political gender reconciliation.\n\nSource will be https://www.index.go.kr/unify/idx-info.do?pop=1&idxCd=5061\n\nNumber to beat is 0.72 from 2023. If 2025 is higher than that, resolves Yes, otherwise No.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-12-03T16:49:56+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2026-01-01T15:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/TonyGao/will-the-fertility-rate-of-south-ko",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.23161812972339202",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "Sqnu2sPyuC",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will at least three of Trump's cabinet nominees fail?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/RichardHanania/will-at-least-three-of-trumps-cabin.",
                    "background": "This market will settle as YES if at least three individuals that Trump nominates for cabinet positions that must be confirmed by the Senate are either withdrawn or voted down in the Senate. Cabinet officials refers to the 15 heads of government agencies, along with cabinet-level officials, which for the purposes of this market includes the Administrator of the EPA, Director of National Intelligence, Director of OMB, Director of CIA, United States Trade Representative, Ambassador to the UN, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Administrator of the SBA, and Director of OSTP. \n\nA nomination occurs as soon as President Trump announces an intention to nominate someone. No other step is necessary to be taken. No official step must be taken to withdraw a nominee either. Credible reporting that the administration will not longer be pursuing the nomination is enough. \n\nThis market will settle as NO as soon as all the relevant positions are confirmed, or if the conditions of YES have not been met by March 31, 2025.  \n\nThe nominees that fail need not be all nominated for different positions. If, for example, Trump has three Attorney General nominees that fail, this market will resolve as YES. \n\nIf Donald Trump does not become president or stops being president, this market resolves according to what happens to the nominees of whoever happens to be president during the relevant time period. The nominees of two or more people serving as president will be counted together. If, for example, Trump appoints an AG who is withdrawn and then Vance becomes president and two of his nominees are withdrawn, this market will settle as YES. ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-11-20T17:56:32+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-04-01T06:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/RichardHanania/will-at-least-three-of-trumps-cabin",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.032147986278168006",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "yfyPBZNkCMZiffCyICSj",
                "AZNPqIQuA0"
            ],
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "yfyPBZNkCMZiffCyICSj",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "\ud83d\udc4d\ud83d\udc4e Manifold Leadership Approval Rating [Market Index]",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/strutheo/manifold-leadership-approval-rating.",
                    "background": "Use mana to let the team know what you think about how they're running the website. 100% means everyone is happy with the direction Manifold is going and the team behind it, and 0% means something has probably gone tragically wrong. \n\nDoes not impact profit rankings\n\nYou get your mana back through loans over time\n\nPermanently open market, will not resolve.\n\nOther Approval Ratings:\n\n@/strutheo/what-will-manifolds-approval-rating \n\n@/strutheo/what-will-manifolds-approval-rating-69a6850abbfb \n\n@/strutheo/what-will-manifolds-approval-rating-d7689b01293f \n\n@/strutheo/what-will-manifolds-approval-rating-da311ac4ea95 ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-01-11T05:36:02+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2525-01-01T05:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/strutheo/manifold-leadership-approval-rating",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.62",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "AZNPqIQuA0",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will the fertility rate of South Korea increase from 2023 to 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/TonyGao/will-the-fertility-rate-of-south-ko.",
                    "background": "Curious if the martial law attempt will indirectly increase fertility, by potential mechanisms like sense of national crisis or political gender reconciliation.\n\nSource will be https://www.index.go.kr/unify/idx-info.do?pop=1&idxCd=5061\n\nNumber to beat is 0.72 from 2023. If 2025 is higher than that, resolves Yes, otherwise No.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-12-03T16:49:56+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2026-01-01T15:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/TonyGao/will-the-fertility-rate-of-south-ko",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.23161812972339202",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "dcgscdEUc0",
                "0A8xESzefvrCpd9RHEJf"
            ],
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "dcgscdEUc0",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will The Russia-Ukraine War End Within 90 days of Trump Taking Office? [see description]",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/will-trump-end-the-ukraine-war-with.",
                    "background": "This market resolves YES if:\n\nAn armistice, ceasefire, or negotiated settlement is announced by both Ukraine and Russia regarding the ongoing war in Ukraine at any point between the Associated Press calling the election for Donald Trump, and April 19, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nTo count toward the resolution of this market, an armistice, ceasefire, and/or negotiated settlement must be indicative of at least the temporary end of the Ukraine-Russia military conflict, must pertain to all theaters of military conflict between the two countries, and be declared through official channels by both countries. The specific date that such an agreement will take effect is not relevant to the resolution of this market. The only requirement is that the agreement must be announced within this market's specified timeframe.\n\n\nTo count toward the resolution of this market, an armistice, ceasefire, and/or negotiated settlement must be indicative of at least the temporary end of the Ukraine-Russia military conflict, must pertain to all theaters of military conflict between the two countries, and be declared through official channels by both countries.\n\nSee also Polymarket's market.\n\nSee also:\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/Bayesian/what-will-happen-during-trumps-seco?play=true)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Bayesian/will-trump-end-the-israelhamas-war?play=true)Update 2025-07-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Comprehensive Ceasefire: A ceasefire that means 'nobody can fight at all for the next week' would count as a temporary end to the conflict.\n\nLocalized Ceasefire: A ceasefire that means 'no fighting in this little area but everywhere else is fine' would not count.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-11-06T18:17:32+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-04-21T03:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/will-trump-end-the-ukraine-war-with",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.254332216419599",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "0A8xESzefvrCpd9RHEJf",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will Ukraine join NATO before Family Guy ends?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-ukraine-join-nato-before-famil.",
                    "background": "",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-03-07T19:59:30+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2101-01-01T04:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-ukraine-join-nato-before-famil",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.455696834648098",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "1BskFw5s4FlnaJET30ai",
                "KJ1JHyFvOOXmVkYDyQSE"
            ],
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "1BskFw5s4FlnaJET30ai",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will Destiny talk to Joe Rogan before the end of 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-destiny-talk-to-joe-rogan-befo-eb498a6dc6a1.",
                    "background": "@/strutheo/will-destiny-talk-to-joe-rogan-befo-9f189acf8fa4 ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-03-11T17:54:41+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2026-01-01T04:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-destiny-talk-to-joe-rogan-befo-eb498a6dc6a1",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.071754778451823",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "KJ1JHyFvOOXmVkYDyQSE",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will \u201cThe Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom\u201d get an expansion pack?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/NcyRocks/will-the-legend-of-zelda-tears-of-t.",
                    "background": "I.e. paid DLC on the scale of the one \"Breath of the Wild\" got. New costumes and weapons aren't enough; new story or locations will probably suffice.\n\nResolves NO once a new main Zelda game is announced.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2022-12-09T21:01:43+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2026-12-31T11:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/NcyRocks/will-the-legend-of-zelda-tears-of-t",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.036986672596519006",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "cE1pnjaMDDaOF16V14Y2",
                "AaZr2KnQYHGRVHzvKoHa"
            ],
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "cE1pnjaMDDaOF16V14Y2",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will Google Chrome be the most popular browser at the end of 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-google-chrome-remain-the-most-d638290c2b33.",
                    "background": "Resolution according to the \"Usage share of all browsers\" table in this wikipedia entry:\n\nhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Usage_share_of_web_browsers\n\nRelated market:\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/AmmonLam/will-google-chrome-remain-the-most-157ad71d2da0)",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2022-12-28T05:27:18+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2026-01-01T04:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-google-chrome-remain-the-most-d638290c2b33",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.9628204529004871",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "AaZr2KnQYHGRVHzvKoHa",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Was synthetic video data generated and used in training Sora?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/m2/was-synthetic-data-generated-and-us.",
                    "background": "Was synthetic video data generated for training Sora, eg large scale clips from Unreal Engine as suggested by this tweet. It does not count if there happens to be synthetic data in the training data. This will resolve yes if the consensus is large scale synthetic data generation was used for Sora.\n\nIf there is no clear consensus, I will resolve it based on my judgement using any material released by OpenAI.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-02-16T11:40:20+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-12-15T21:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/m2/was-synthetic-data-generated-and-us",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.413647755252235",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "WApsfsjdZXrGDA1OPLs5",
                "RiB3ECnJ48CXPeRVKKu7"
            ],
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "WApsfsjdZXrGDA1OPLs5",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will there be a robot uprising by 2035?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/Ophiuchus/will-there-be-a-robot-uprising-by-2.",
                    "background": "(Inspired by 2004\u2019s \u201cI, Robot\u201d starring Will Smith.)\n\nWill something resembling a robot uprising (as seen in the film) occur by EOY 2035?\n\nFor the purposes of this market I am loosening the resolution criteria a bit more than what literally occurs in the movie\u2014the \u201cuprising\u201d can happen in just one city, humans do not necessarily need to die or be seriously injured, and an AGI does not need to be the mastermind of the rebellion. For example, if some crazy mad haxx0r managed to seize control of all Tesla vehicles within a certain city and have the cars drive themselves outside of city limits for a full day while city infrastructure was being reprogrammed by him (or something) that would count as a \u201cyes.\u201d \n\nEssentially:\n\n1) Widespread disruption due to automata failing to fulfill their normal tasks\n\n2) Disruptions cover at least one major metropolitan area\n\n3) Disruptions are due to intent from either AGI or a malicious human (internal idiocy would not count e.g. Elon Musk deciding to do a little trolling in DC for a week)\n\n4) Disruptions in automata go on for at least 24 hours\n\n5) The actions of the automata are not recognized as being directly to the material benefit of either their owners and/or human society at large: this means that only one condition here needs to be satisfied. \n\nExamples:\n\n5a) a robot uprising may occur against the owners\u2019 short-term interests (they stop doing the laundry without permission or something) in favor of humanity\u2019s long-term interests (they work together to save the last key species in an ecosystem essential for biosphere regulation).\n\n5b) a robot uprising may occur in the owners\u2019 short-term interests but counter to those of humanity as a whole, I.e. a small group of wealthy robot owners command their bots to destroy any and all assets of unionized workers employed in their factories.\n\n5c) a robot uprising may occur wherein agricultural robots act against owners\u2019 short-term interests by setting crops on fire (destroying profits) and humanity\u2019s long-term interests (prolonged hunger/shortages due to reduced agricultural output).\n\nAny of the above three scenarios would satisfy condition #5, but conditions #1-4 must also be satisfied to resolve as a \u201cyes.\u201d\n\nMovie for context:\n\n(https://www.youtube.com/embed/7Dlo-VB0-HI?si=avgO-jZTUPj0WCsy)",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-12-21T22:57:09+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2036-01-01T06:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/Ophiuchus/will-there-be-a-robot-uprising-by-2",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.095092206156259",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "RiB3ECnJ48CXPeRVKKu7",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/chrisjbillington/will-ukraine-win-the-russoukrainian.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve YES if and when Wikipedia's English page on the Russo-Ukrainian War (or the nearest equivalent if that page no longer exists) lists in its infobox \"Result: Ukrainian victory\", and I am satisfied that this is not part of an edit war.\n\nIt will also resolve YES if the result describes the victor as some coalition of which Ukraine is a part, or describes the outcome in terms of the defeated side being Russia or some coalition of which Russia is a part.\n\nAny other \"result\" after the war is no longer described by Wikipedia as \"ongoing\" will cause the market to resolve NO, including hedged statements like \"Partial Ukrainian victory\" or \"Ukrainian victory with territorial losses\".\n\nResolution only depends on the first, non-dotpoint statement in the \"result\" section of the infobox. If hedging/concessions follow the intitial statement as dotpoints, or if they appear in the body of the article, this is not relevant to resolution. If the \"result\" comprises only dotpoints, the market will resolve NO.\n\nThe closing date for this market will be extended as needed until the market can resolve.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-01-10T07:15:40+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-12-31T23:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/chrisjbillington/will-ukraine-win-the-russoukrainian",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.14",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "ijfFvS9a12mU7Ahqq3JI",
                "sis542tw6o"
            ],
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "ijfFvS9a12mU7Ahqq3JI",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/Shump/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener-e7f99acbe19d.",
                    "background": "Same as the main market but the AI must only be at the level of the worst filmmakers, rather than the best. So instead of a Marvel movie level of quality, think The Room level of quality. That's the yardstick that I will be using. Alternatively it can be any other well-known bad movie, like Birdemic or Who Killed Captain Alex. It doesn't need to have the \"so bad it's good\" qualities of The Room, but it needs to have a minimally coherent plot structure and cinematography. It must not be too painful for humans to watch the entire thing, and it needs to have the basics like characters say and do things that advance the plot, at least usually.\n\nMain market:\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener)",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-01-28T04:34:11+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2028-01-02T07:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/Shump/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener-e7f99acbe19d",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.659999999999999",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "sis542tw6o",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will there be consensus on who Dwarkesh's \"biggest guest yet\" was, before Q3 2025? (Resolves to poll)",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/will-there-be-consensus-on-who-dwar.",
                    "background": "For context, see this tweet.\n\nWithin the next few months, I'm going to be releasing an episode with by far my biggest guest yet.\n\nIf you're interesting in sponsoring it, shoot me an email at sponsor@dwarkeshpatel.com\n\nSee also @/Ziddletwix/will-manifold-agree-that-dwarkeshs \n\nI think it's not clear that these markets will be unambiguous and satisfactorily resolved, therefore I created this one.\n\nResolution\n\n\u200c\nA few separate possibilities to resolution here\n\n1) See: Who is Dwarkesh's upcoming \"biggest guest yet\"? Once that market resolves, I will close this one and run a poll for one week, using the [NAME] that it resolved to.\n\nThe phrasing will be something along the lines of \"Do you agree that [NAME] was the person Dwarkesh alluded  to with the 'by far the biggest guest yet' tweet?\", with options \"Agree\" and \"Disagree\".\n\nIf \"Agree\" has \u226580% of votes, this market resolves YES. If it has less this market resolves to NO.\n\n2) The above market does not resolve before Q2 2025, but one alternative has traded at \u226580% consistently over a week (brief dents below 80% don't matter) --> Resolves to YES \n\n3) Toward the end of Q2 2025, neither of the above has happened. I run a poll similar to what's described above, with my best guess at a name. Resolves to YES if \u226580% \"Agree\" on the suggested name.\n\n4) Dwarkesh unambiguously confirms who the person referred to is/was, this resolves to YES immediately.\n\n5) Unaccounted for by me, but very reasonable scenarios, that I think should resolve to YES or NO, outside of the above.\n\n\nFeel free to suggest improvements to these criteria and conditions, or ask for clarifications.\nI will not trade in this market, to better allow for fair resolution.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-08-23T18:08:23+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-07-01T06:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/will-there-be-consensus-on-who-dwar",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.45161636055118604",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "G3mFASghFttmIxkNVU7n",
                "AtLFLzDlSERmVcSdUapy"
            ],
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "G3mFASghFttmIxkNVU7n",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "If Leonardo DiCaprio has a girlfriend after Vittoria Ceretti, will she be less than half DiCaprio's age at the time?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/strutheo/if-leonardo-dicaprio-has-a-girlfrie.",
                    "background": "",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-03-10T07:11:27+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2051-01-01T04:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/strutheo/if-leonardo-dicaprio-has-a-girlfrie",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.677531310347337",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "AtLFLzDlSERmVcSdUapy",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will the upcoming Minecraft movie make over a billion dollars at the worldwide box office?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/asmith/will-the-upcoming-minecraft-movie-m.",
                    "background": "Not counting re-releases. Will push back resolve date if necessary.\n\nEdit: if by some chance this movie doesn't get a wide release in theaters... I will resolve N/A.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-12-17T21:03:14+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2030-12-25T07:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/asmith/will-the-upcoming-minecraft-movie-m",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.199506396107916",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "28RJ23fKDFMr4Mo8YQ4f",
                "AaZr2KnQYHGRVHzvKoHa"
            ],
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "28RJ23fKDFMr4Mo8YQ4f",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will human narration for audiobooks become mostly unnecessary before 2026?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/FranklinBaldo/will-human-narration-for-audiobooks.",
                    "background": "[tweet]",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-10-16T01:53:43+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2026-01-01T03:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/FranklinBaldo/will-human-narration-for-audiobooks",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.7500000000000001",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "AaZr2KnQYHGRVHzvKoHa",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Was synthetic video data generated and used in training Sora?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/m2/was-synthetic-data-generated-and-us.",
                    "background": "Was synthetic video data generated for training Sora, eg large scale clips from Unreal Engine as suggested by this tweet. It does not count if there happens to be synthetic data in the training data. This will resolve yes if the consensus is large scale synthetic data generation was used for Sora.\n\nIf there is no clear consensus, I will resolve it based on my judgement using any material released by OpenAI.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-02-16T11:40:20+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-12-15T21:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/m2/was-synthetic-data-generated-and-us",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.413647755252235",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "orkfisZxTY9ratCDidWK",
                "szUrSgdNQDBxn14E5D7E"
            ],
            "source": "manifold",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "orkfisZxTY9ratCDidWK",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/MilfordHammerschmidt/will-over-100000-people-be-conceive.",
                    "background": "See:\n\nhttps://lifeview.com\n\nhttps://www.gwern.net/Embryo-selection\n\nDoesn't matter what the traits selected are; can be predicted health, personality traits, intelligence, criminality, whatever. Just matters that the embryo was selected based on not specific, simple criteria (i.e. how many chromosomes a fertilized egg has or whether or not it will have sickle cell disease) but more wide ranging quality of life or \"child success\" predictions. ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-01-13T19:15:32+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2030-01-02T07:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/MilfordHammerschmidt/will-over-100000-people-be-conceive",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.47386365096109506",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "szUrSgdNQDBxn14E5D7E",
                    "source": "manifold",
                    "question": "Will Noam Chomsky become a centenarian?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-noam-chomsky-become-a-centenar-edd6fae0d611.",
                    "background": "Born December 7, 1928",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-02-29T01:44:08+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2028-12-09T04:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-noam-chomsky-become-a-centenar-edd6fae0d611",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.100530115296069",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market value.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "14364",
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "Will wild influenza B/Yamagata be declared eradicated before 2030?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14364.",
            "background": "The COVID-19 pandemic led to worldwide handwashing, masking, social distancing, and lockdowns.  Although this was designed to prevent the spread of COVID-19, it affected many other viruses as well, essentially preventing the 2020-2021 flu season.  It may have even eradicated a strain of flu: [wild influenza B/Yamagata has not been definitively seen anywhere in the world since April 2020](https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/09/covid-may-have-pushed-a-leading-seasonal-flu-strain-to-extinction/).\n\nHowever, there have been [sporadic cases of influenza B/Yamagata as recently as October 2022](https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZTkyODcyOTEtZjA5YS00ZmI0LWFkZGUtODIxNGI5OTE3YjM0IiwidCI6ImY2MTBjMGI3LWJkMjQtNGIzOS04MTBiLTNkYzI4MGFmYjU5MCIsImMiOjh9); it's unknown whether these are wild or vaccine derived.\n\nIn 1980, [the World Health Organization (WHO) declared smallpox eradicated](https://www.who.int/health-topics/smallpox#tab=tab_1).  At present, this is the only infectious disease to be eradicated in humans (an animal disease, rinderpest, [was declared eradicated in 2011](https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1223805#:~:text=Rinderpest%20was%20declared%20eradicated%20by,ever%20to%20be%20globally%20eradicated.)).  Typically, the WHO waits some number of years without seeing a wild case to declare a disease eradicated -- the last known smallpox case was in 1977 (3 years prior to announcing it was eradicated); for rinderpest, it was 2003 (8 years).\n\nThe WHO has also declared two strains of wild polio to be eradicated, [most recently in 2019](https://www.who.int/news-room/feature-stories/detail/two-out-of-three-wild-poliovirus-strains-eradicated).  (Note that vaccine-derived cases of these strains of polio [continue to circulate](https://polioeradication.org/polio-today/polio-now/).)",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-01-14T05:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2030-01-01T04:59:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2030, any of the  World Health Organization (WHO), European Medicines Agency (EMA), or US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) announces that the influenza B/Yamagata strain has been eradicated. A synonym such as \"extinct\" also qualifies, as does an announcement that wild influenza B/Yamagata has been eradicated , even if there are still vaccine-derived cases. If no such announcement occurs this resolves as **No** before January 1, 2030.  If one of these agencies declares it eradicated and another wild case subsequently appears, this still resolves as **Yes**",
            "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14364",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.297",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "4290",
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "Will NAD+ boosters be shown in a systematic review to increase human lifespan by >=5% by 2030?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4290.",
            "background": "",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2020-06-01T09:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2027-01-01T00:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "Long-term supplementation of NAD+ boosters such as Nicotinamide Riboside and Nicotinamide Mononucleotide have been demonstrated to increase lifespan in animal models.\n\nHuman clinical trials are ongoing, with published papers demonstrating:\n\n + Safety and increase in NAD+ levels. ([1],[2])\n + Insulin sensitivity unchanged. ([1])\n + Cardiac biomarkers seem to improve. ([3])\n\nWill a systematic review of human trials conclude by 2030 that NAD+ boosting is effective in increasing human lifespan by >5%?\n\nThis question will resolve positive if at any point until 2030 a systematic review of clinical trials of NAD+ boosting will explicitly mention a lifespan improvement of at least 5% in humans. (results in animal models or lifespan estimation based on results in treatment of diseases are not enough for positive resolution)\n\n[1]: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29992272/\n\n[2]: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29211728/\n\n[3]: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5876407/",
            "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4290",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.05",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "3507",
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "Will EQRx get at least one drug approved by the FDA before the end of 2030?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3507.",
            "background": "",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2020-01-21T23:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2026-02-23T23:34:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "From [this Chemical and Engineering News article](https://cen.acs.org/pharmaceuticals/EQRx-launches-developdrugs-steep-discount/98/web/2020/01):\n\n> Venture capitalist and serial entrepreneur Alexis Borisy has founded EQRx to develop equal or better versions of innovative medicines\u2014often called me-too drugs\u2014and sell them at a substantial discount to competing therapies. With an initial investment of $200 million from a syndicate of investors, the biotech firm plans to put 10 new, more affordable drugs on the market in the next decade.\n\nHe plans to do that unsing *technology* (ibid.):\n\n> \u201cToday, you can do a virtual screen of a billion compounds, do on-demand synthesis of all of those, and you can do it overnight in the cloud.\u201d\n\n> Once a molecule is made, Borisy points to the potential to analyze reams of clinical data to design efficient studies that can prove a drug\u2019s value to government groups and payers.\n\n> Combined, these technological efficiencies could bring down the cost of getting a drug onto the market\u2014often cited as between $2 billion and $3 billion\u2014by an order of magnitude, Borisy says. If EQRx spends, on average, $300 million to $400 million per drug, he believes the biotech firm can still be \u201cvery profitable,\u201d even as it offers its medicines at a significant discount.\n\nA [Stat article](https://www.statnews.com/2020/01/12/venture-capitalist-alexis-borisy-bring-down-drug-prices/) has this to say about EQRx's plan:\n\n> Quite simply, Borisy is going to invent and develop new drugs, and sell them for less money than the competition. He calls this \u201ca radical proposition.\u201d In any other sector, it would just be called \u201cbusiness.\u201d\n\nTo offer some counterweight, Derek Lowe (who writes probably the most famous and oldest chemistry blog, and has been working in drug discovery for decades) [has this to say](https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/01/15/eqrxs-challenge-and-my-challenge-to-them):\n\n> No, in case you were wondering, you cannot virtually screen a billion compounds overnight.\n\n> no, you cannot do \u201con-demand synthesis of all of those\u201d, either.\n\n> I will put up $500 dollars on LongBets.com against the proposition that EQRx will produce ten drugs in the next ten years.\n\nWe will ask here about a much less ambitious goal: **Will EQRx get at least one new drug approved by the FDA before the end of 2030?**\n\nIf EQRx ceases to exist before 2031, this resolves negative. Exception: if the company gets bought / merges with another before it has had a drug approved by the FDA, any drug that clearly originated in EQRx and gets approved before the deadline counts.",
            "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3507",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.37",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "29027",
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "Will the World Health Organization designate a new COVID-19 Variant of Concern before July 1, 2025?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/29027.",
            "background": "The WHO tracks SARS-CoV-2 variants using [three main classifications](https://www.who.int/news-room/questions-and-answers/item/coronavirus-disease-(covid-19)-variants-of-sars-cov-2): \r\n\r\nA **Variant Under Monitoring (VUM)** is, according to WHO, one that may require prioritized attention and monitoring. The main objective of this category is to investigate if this variant (and others closely related to it) may pose an additional threat to global public health as compared to other circulating variants.\" At the time of this question, there were two VUMs: BA.2.86 and JN.1.\r\n\r\nA **Variant of Interest (VOI)** is a variant with changes that \"are known to affect how the virus behaves or its potential impact on human health. This can include, for example, its ability to spread, its ability to cause serious disease, or how easily it may be detected or treated.\" At the time of this question, there were 7 VOIs: JN.1.7 KP.2,\r\nKP.3, KP.3.1.1, JN.1.18, LB.1, and XEC.\r\n\r\nA **Variant of Concern (VOC)** is, according to the [working definition](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/updated-working-definitions-and-primary-actions-for--sars-cov-2-variants) last updated March 15, 2023:\r\n\r\n>A SARS-CoV-2 variant that meets the definition of a VOI (see above) and, through a risk assessment, conducted by WHO TAG-VE, and determined to be associated with a moderate or high level of confidence, meets at least one of the following criteria when compared with other variants:\r\n>\u2022 Detrimental change in clinical disease severity; OR\r\n>\u2022 Change in COVID-19 epidemiology causing substantial impact on the ability of health systems to provide care to patients with COVID-19 or other illnesses and therefore requiring major public health interventions; OR\r\n>\u2022 Significant decrease in the effectiveness of available vaccines in protecting against severe\r\ndisease.\r\n\r\nAt the time of this question, there are no currently circulating WHO-designated VOCs. Previously circulating VOCs (see archive [here](https://web.archive.org/web/20221005140711/https://www.who.int/activities/tracking-SARS-CoV-2-variants)) are:\r\n\r\n| WHO label | Pango lineage | GISAID clade | Nextstrain clade | Additional amino acid changes monitored | Earliest documented samples | Date of designation |\r\n| --------- | ------------- | ------------ | ---------------- | --------------------------------------- | -------------------------- | ------------------- |\r\n| **Alpha** | B.1.1.7       | GRY          | 20I (V1)         |                                         | United Kingdom, Sep-2020    | VOC: 18-Dec-2020 (Previous VOC: 09-Mar-2022) |\r\n| **Beta**  | B.1.351       | GH/501Y.V2   | 20H (V2)         |                                         | South Africa, May-2020      | VOC: 18-Dec-2020  (Previous VOC: 09-Mar-2022) |\r\n| **Gamma** | P.1           | GR/501Y.V3   | 20J (V3)         |                                         | Brazil, Nov-2020            | VOC: 11-Jan-2021 (Previous VOC: 09-Mar-2022) |\r\n| **Delta** | B.1.617.2     | G/478K.V1    | 21A, 21I, 21J    |                                         | India, Oct-2020             | VOI: 4-Apr-2021 (VOC: 11-May-2021)  (Previous VOC: 7-Jun-2022) |\r\n| **Omicron** | B.1.1.529   | GR/484A      | 21K, 21L, 21M, 22A, 22B, 22C, 22D | +S:R346K (+S:L452X) (+S:F486V) | Multiple countries, Nov-2021 | VUM: 24-Nov-2021 (VOC: 26-Nov-2021) |",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-10-24T16:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-06-30T04:01:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after October 21, 2024, and before July 1, 2025, the World Health Organization (WHO) adds a new SARS-CoV-2 variant to their list of Variants of Concern that was not previously identified as a VOC at any point, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) such as the WHO's [SARS-CoV-2 variants](https://www.who.int/en/activities/tracking-SARS-CoV-2-variants/) tracker page or its [COVID-19 Variants Dashboard](https://data.who.int/dashboards/covid19/variants).\r\n\r\nIf this does not occur before July 1, 2025, this question will resolve as **No**.",
            "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/29027",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.02",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "9524",
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "Will Israel be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9524.",
            "background": "Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of [several previous Metaculus questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&search=Embryo%20selection) and [a notebook.](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/9247/polygenic-selection-of-embryos/) \n\nOne of the most important [papers](https://www.cell.com/cell/pdf/S0092-8674(19)31210-3.pdf) on embryo selection was coauthored by Israeli, Greek, and American researchers including Hebrew University's Shai Carmi, and found an expected gain of 2.5 IQ points using 2018 polygenic scores.  It was [reported](https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Israeli-research-Can-genetic-testing-and-selection-make-your-baby-smart-608550) [on](https://www.timesofisrael.com/scientists-say-smart-and-tall-designer-babies-out-of-reach-for-now/) in the Israeli media.  In an [article on genetic engineering](https://www.docdroid.net/kkx0XperMZ/haaretz-brave-new-baby-pdf#page=2\n) in the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, Carmi is quoted as saying that the gains may be up to seven IQ points in the foreseeable future.\n\nIsrael has [generous](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S240566182030023X) [state-subsidized](https://forward.com/news/israel/347368/the-drive-to-make-the-perfect-israeli-baby/) [pre-implantation genetic diagnosis (PGD)](https://www.jpost.com/magazine/advanced-procedures-bring-hope-to-couples-with-genetic-diseases-579959) through in-vitro fertilization (IVF) for a large basket of genetic diseases.  Israel's public health insurance covers PGD for up to two children per family.  The practice spans the Israeli religious spectrum, from secular to ultra-Orthodox.  Israelis are also [avid aborters](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium.MAGAZINE-the-abortion-conundrum-how-far-israelis-go-to-ensure-their-babies-are-born-perfect-1.7362524) of fetuses with Down Syndome.\n\nIsrael had the [fastest COVID vaccine rollout in the world](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/07/israels-covid-vaccine-rollout-is-the-fastest-in-the-world.html), [leads in 21st century Nobel Prizes per capita](https://slatestarcodex.com/2017/05/29/four-nobel-truths/), has a [very developed science and technology sector](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Science_and_technology_in_Israel) and [a developed biotech industry and stem cell industry in particular](https://www.haaretz.com/.premium-stem-cell-research-a-boom-industry-in-israel-1.5238166), and is a [leader in IVF](https://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/18/world/middleeast/18israel.html#:~:text=Unlike%20countries%20where%20couples%20can,the%20procedure%20in%20the%20world.) and [fertility technology.](https://www.jpost.com/health-science/israeli-startup-looks-to-improve-ivf-for-millions-of-couples-656242) Israel is a leader in many 21st century technologies, such as [cyber](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/half-of-global-cybersecurity-investment-has-been-in-israel-pm-bennett-says-1.10546684)[security](https://www.jns.org/israel-ranks-among-strongest-global-cyber-powers/) and [desalination](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/israel-proves-the-desalination-era-is-here/).  It is expected to be early on [approving cultivated meat](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8846/approval-of-cultivated-meat-in-israel/) as well as [self-driving](https://unitedwithisrael.org/self-driving-robotaxis-to-hit-tel-aviv-in-2022/) [cars](https://www.jpost.com/jpost-tech/mobileye-unveils-new-self-driving-taxi-will-launch-in-tel-aviv-in-2022-678860).\n\nJudaism is generally bioethically permissive.  Jewish authorities [universally agree](https://www.nature.com/articles/nm0309-238b) that a preimplantation embryo does not have the same sacred title to life as an implanted embryo.  Unlike Christianity, Judaism [supports](https://www.rollcall.com/2005/06/10/evangelicals-orthodox-jews-split-on-stem-cells/) stem cell research.  Orthodox Israeli physician [Shimon Glick](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shimon_Glick) [wrote](https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-experts-pan-chinese-gene-editing-as-drastic-human-experimentation/) that it is [ethical](https://philpapers.org/rec/GLISJT) [to raise IQ using genetic engineering](https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.884.114&rep=rep1&type=pdf), and that Jewish law does not prohibit it and in fact supports it because it raises quality of life.  Orthodox and ultra-Orthodox Jewish Israelis are [avid](https://forward.com/news/israel/347368/the-drive-to-make-the-perfect-israeli-baby/) [consumers](https://www.jpost.com/magazine/advanced-procedures-bring-hope-to-couples-with-genetic-diseases-579959) of Israel's pre-implantation genetic diagnosis and of the genetic testing that [Dor Yeshorim](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dor_Yeshorim) does, and Israel has an [embryo selection company](https://www.jpost.com/health-science/israeli-startup-looks-to-improve-ivf-for-millions-of-couples-656242) started by an ultra-Orthodox mother of four.  [Tay-Sachs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tay%E2%80%93Sachs_disease), a genetic disease common among [Ashkenazi Jews](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ashkenazi_Jews), who make up about half of Israel's population and about 40% of the total population, has been [virtually eliminated](https://www.haaretz.com/1.4706480) in Israel, where only one baby with Tay-Sachs was born in 2003.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2022-01-26T05:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2040-01-01T05:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if Israel is one of the first ten countries with over a million people to have more than 10% of its newborns developed from embryos selected for polygenic scores for intelligence, according to credible reports. If no country has >10% of its newborns selected for intelligence by 2300-01-01 it resolves as ambiguous.\n\nMoreover, for the question to resolve positively, the particular procedure used for embryo selection must, in expectation, result in an increase of at least 1/5 standard deviations in IQ (i.e. 3 IQ points), according to credible evidence",
            "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9524",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.78",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "3458",
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "Will there be a culturally significant development in aging research by 2030?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3458.",
            "background": "",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2020-01-12T12:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2030-01-01T07:59:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "In 2019, at a speech at the Foresight Institute, biomedical gerontologist Aubrey de Grey [stated](https://youtu.be/QmoYYewuw-c?t=660):\n\n> I think we are still 15-20 years away [from effective anti-aging therapies] but the anticipation of the therapy by the general public is coming soon, and it is that anticipation that is going to be the point when the shit really hits the fan. If you think about a situation in which less than five years from now [...] in a period of about a week, half of the developed world is going to shift from an expectation that they will live only slightly longer than their parents did, into an expectation that they're going to live far longer than anyone has ever lived.\n\nIf half of the people in the developed world came to believe within a period of a week that effective anti-aging therapies were imminent, this would likely be a culturally significant event, perhaps among the most significant in the 2020's.\n\nThis question resolves positively if any of the terms \"aging\", \"ageing\", \"anti-aging\", \"anti-ageing\", \"longevity\", \"lifespan\", \"rejuvenation\", or \"life extension\" are mentioned as a direct reference to longevity research\\* in any of the following media sources produced between January 1st 2020 and January 1st 2030 UTC:\n\n 1. The English Wikipedia's \"In the news\" [section](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:In_the_news).\n\n     or\n\n 2. History.com's summary of events for a year in the 2020's.\n\n     or\n\n 3. The transcript for a primary or general presidential election debate in America.\n\nIt also resolves positively if:\n\n 4. A longevity researcher receives Time's Person of the Year for their work on defeating aging.\n\nOtherwise, this question resolves negatively on the 1st of January 2030.\n\nIn case of positive resolution, this question retroactively closes 1 day before the triggering event.\n\n*ETA: 2022-04-08: qualifying primary or general presidential election debates are limited to mainstream debates (i.e., Republican and Democratic primaries + general election debates).*\n\n<small>\n\n\\* \"longevity research\" here means the research comes from a group whose explicit purpose (as defined by their charter, or their about page on their website, or by some official statement made by the organisation which pertains to their research ends) is to slow, halt, or reverse the natural aging process. Examples of research groups which meet this criteria are the SENS Research Foundation and The Sinclair Lab at Harvard.\n\n</small>",
            "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3458",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.58",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "8601",
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "Will a small molecule GLP-1-based drug be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2029?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8601.",
            "background": "Pharmaceutical researchers have recently made progress in weight-loss management with the development of [Semaglutide](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semaglutide) which has demonstrated [15](http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2032183)-[18](https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2021.3224)% weight loss in subjects.  Side effects are relatively minor, and it is administered as a once-per-week injection.\n\nUltimately, non-protein \u201csmall molecule\u201d drugs that activate GLP-1 receptors may offer advantages over proteins like semaglutide. These advantages include potentially lower cost of production in less specialized facilities, good oral availability, and longer shelf-life. In June of 2020, Pfizer presented [promising results](https://doi.org/10.2337/db20-353-OR) from a phase 1 trial of a small molecule GLP-1 receptor activator, PF-06882961, in people with type 2 diabetes. Over 28 days of treatment, the drug substantially improved blood glucose control and reduced body weight by 2-9%, depending on dose. Novo Nordisk may be [working in the area](https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0605701104) as well.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2021-11-24T06:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2029-01-01T17:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if either the US Food and Drug Administration or the European Medicines Agency approve a small-molecule GLP-1-based drug for the purpose of weight loss by 2029-01-01.\n\n\u201cSmall molecule GLP-1-based drug\u201d is defined here as a drug that is not based on a protein and is intended to act on the GLP-1 receptor as its primary biological target, or as a major biological target.  For context, all drugs with current (2021) regulatory approval that target the GLP-1 system are based on proteins",
            "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8601",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.597",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "12106",
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "Will a biologic therapy targeting Mycobacterium tuberculosis be tested in humans before 2038?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12106.",
            "background": "Among the many challenges of [tuberculosis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tuberculosis) elimination, multi-drug resistant TB (MDR-TB) and extensively drug resistant TB (XDR-TB) are major concerns in areas of very severe TB incidence, especially in [countries of the former Soviet Union](https://academic.oup.com/jtm/article/28/6/taab069/6274753?login=true), [South](https://idpjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s40249-021-00803-w) and [central Asia](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6938018/). There is also particular concern for [cities](https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/36/12/e152/299509), a major issue in an increasingly urbanizing world. \n\nOne possible tool in alleviating the problem of antimicrobial resistance includes [biologic therapies](http://www.eurekaselect.com/article/89346). According to [Rivas-Santiago et al.](http://www.eurekaselect.com/article/89346), antimicrobial peptides \u201chave demonstrated remarkable efficacy to kill mycobacteria in vitro and in vivo in experimental models\u201d. [Dijksteel et al](https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmicb.2021.616979/full). provide an overview of all clinical trials and therapeutic uses of biologic therapies in humans in Table 1 of their article, but none specifically target TB as of the article publication on February 22, 2021.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2022-08-06T05:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2038-01-01T06:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if a clinical trial is registered on [ClinicalTrials.gov](https://clinicaltrials.gov/) which tests a biologic therapy's efficacy against tuberculosis in human subjects.  The success or efficacy of the therapy is not relevant to the resolution of the question; performance of the trial is the sole criterion.  Any stage of clinical trial ([phase 1 or later](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phases_of_clinical_research)) will be sufficient to resolve the question",
            "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12106",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.618",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "10393",
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "If World War 3 happens before 2060, will the US and India be on the same side?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10393.",
            "background": "In World War 1 & 2, India was under the rule of the British Crown, as part of the British Raj. As a result, it joined the wars [on the side](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Army_during_World_War_I) [of the allies](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/India_in_World_War_II).\n\nRecently, some have speculated that there may be another world war, possibly rising from Russian aggression in Eastern Europe, or from a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. If another world war occurs, will India and the United States once again be on the same side?",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2022-03-25T07:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2052-05-31T07:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "For the purpose of this question, the following clarifications are given:\n\n* The government of India during World War 3 is considered to be whatever government had _de facto_ control over New Delhi prior to the outbreak of the war. If the starting date of World War 3 is in dispute, then it refers to January 1st of the year 3 years prior to the first time time it is understood that the world is in a state of \"world war\" (see the last point for a clarification of this condition).\n\n* The government of the United States is defined similarly to the way the government of India is defined. That is, the US government is whatever government had _de facto_ control over Washington D.C. prior to the outbreak of World War 3.\n\n* Two governments are said to be \"on the same side\" of a conflict if they regularly give aid and comfort to each other, actively fight a common enemy, or have formal treaties of alliance with each other, which are widely recognized to be valid.\n\n* A \"great power\" is a nation that ranks within the top ten nations by military spending, in nominal dollars, according to a reputable organization. These figures will ideally be decided by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, or if that organization ceases to exist, the International Institute for Strategic Studies. If both organizations either cease to exist or stop publishing figures on military spending, Metaculus admins will use their discretion to decide which organization to refer to.\n\n* The world is said to be in a state of \"world war\" if ANY of the following become true within a three year period, starting on January 1st of a particular year: (1) at least five great powers are all engaged in a direct, confrontational (non-proxy) war, with at least one great power on the other side of the other great powers (2) at least ten million people across at least three continents have died in conflicts that are widely considered to be related to one another, according to the United Nations, or another reputable international body as determined by Metaculus admins (a single localized civil war or genocide will not count), (3) at least one nuclear weapon has non-accidentally been deployed and used in wartime by a great power, in the course of a conflict, against another great power.\n\n* World War 3 is the next world war to occur after World War 2.\n\nThis question resolves ambiguously in the case that World War 3 did not occur before 2060. It resolves positively if the governments of the United States and India are on the same side during that war, and negatively if they are on opposite sides. It also resolves ambiguously if one or both parties are not significant players in World War 3",
            "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10393",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.74",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "8378",
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "Will the total yield across all countries' nuclear stockpiles at the end of 2029 exceed 10,000Mt?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8378.",
            "background": "For further context and motivation for this and other questions in this tournament on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields, and a list of such questions, see [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ldq0qAutq5Gam8dIRVxA_bzd0Rqz_pL3md8dosHoXjU/edit).\n\nThe total yield across all arsenals depends on both the number of weapons in states' stockpiles and the yield of each of those weapons. This tournament has or will soon have other questions on the number of nuclear weapons that'll be in states' stockpiles and the largest yield weapon that'll be possessed. \n\nStockpiles include deployed, reserve/nondeployed, and retired (but still intact) warheads, and both strategic and nonstrategic weapons. If states that aren't currently nuclear-armed are nuclear-armed when the latest estimated published in 2029 are made, their stockpiles can count towards positive resolution.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2021-10-28T14:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2029-12-31T22:59:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "Resolution will be based on the most recent estimates published in 2029 by reputable sources such as the [Federation of American Scientists (FAS)](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/). If no reputable sources explicitly estimate the total yield across all states' nuclear stockpiles in 2029, resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins, who will:\n\n* ask an author of relevant publications (e.g., [Matt Korda](https://fas.org/expert/matt-korda/)) for an estimate, and/or \n\n* make an estimate based on what reputable sources say about things like the number of weapons of various types and the yield of those weapons, or the numbers and median yields of each states' nuclear stockpile",
            "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8378",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.25",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "21856",
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that Iran will not possess a nuclear weapon on July 31, 2025?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21856.",
            "background": "**The original wager for this question appeared [here](https://www.betonit.ai/p/nuclear_iran_behtml?utm_source=%2Fsearch%2Fbet&utm_medium=reader2) and was offered to John Podhoretz on July 28, 2015 at 10:1 odds favoring Caplan**\n\n----------\n\nCaplan writes:\n\n>John Podhoretz:\n\n>\"The United States and its allies have struck a deal with Iran that\neffectively ensures that it will be a nuclear state with ballistic\nmissiles in 10 years, assuming Iran adheres to the deal\u2019s terms, which\nis a very large assumption.\"\n\n>Such supreme confidence cries out for a bet.  Draft terms: John gives me 10:1 odds that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by July 31, 2025 according to (a) any major U.S. newspaper (NYT, WSJ, up to three others of John\u2019s choice) or (b) any major international agency (Atomic Energy Commission, U.N., up to three others of John\u2019s choice).  If this happens, I immediately owe him $100.  Otherwise, he owes me $1000 on August 1, 2025.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-03-21T17:48:00+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-07-30T17:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "*This question belongs to the Bryan Caplan Collection, a series based on bets by economist Bryan Caplan. Find the rest of the series [here](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3053/) and Caplan's bet inventory covering most series questions [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1qShKedFJptpxfTHl9MBtHARAiurX-WK6ChrMgQRQz-0/edit).*\n\n*Note that this wager was offered by Bryan Caplan, but it does not appear in the bets wiki.**\n\n**Questions in this series resolve according to the outcome of Bryan Caplan's wager, where a resolution of 'Yes' reflects Caplan winning the bet. Questions resolve per public statements by Caplan.**\n\n---\n\nFor this question, a resolution of YES reflects that Caplan won his bet that: Iran does not possess a nuclear weapon on July 31, 2025. \n\nIf Caplan does not announce the outcome, this question resolves per reporting in the New York Times or Wall Street Journal.",
            "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21856",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.913",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "25801",
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "Will the world remain \"normal\" through 2030, according to specified criteria?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/25801.",
            "background": "As of July 2, 2024, the questions had the following probabilities assessed by the Metaculus Community: \n\n- [Development of artificial general intelligence](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/) - Cumulative probability of 40% before 2030.\n\n- A [10% reduction in the human population](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/global-population-decline-10-by-2100/) - 36% chance of happening before 2100.\n\n- [Global GDP increases by 30% or more in one year](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5159/date-of-gwp-growth-over-130/) - 13% cumulative probability before 2030.\n\n- The [discovery of alien technosignatures](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1629/alien-technosignature-detection-by-2050/) - 3% chance of happening before 2050.\n\n- A [worldview-shattering explanation for UAPs (UFOs)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18075/shocking-uap-explanation-by-july-2028/) - 1.4% before July 22, 2028.\n\n- [World War III](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/world-war-three-before-2050/) - 25% chance before 2050.\n\n- A [nuclear weapon is detonated as an act of war](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4779/at-least-1-nuclear-detonation-in-war-by-2050/) - 23% before 2050.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-07-05T11:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2029-12-31T19:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if **none** of the following occur before January 1, 2030:\n\n- The **development of artificial general intelligence**, which will be considered to occur if the question *[When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/)* resolves to a date before January 1, 2030.\n- A **10% reduction in the human population**, which will be considered to occur if the question *[By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/global-population-decline-10-by-2100/)* resolves as Yes before January 1, 2030.\n- Global **GDP increases by 30% or more in one year**, which will be considered to occur if the question *[In which year will the world's real GDP first exceed 130% of its highest level from any previous year?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5159/date-of-gwp-growth-over-130/)* resolves to a date before January 1, 2030.\n- The **discovery of alien technosignatures**, which will be considered to occur if the question *[Will alien technosignatures be detected before 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1629/alien-technosignature-detection-by-2050/)* resolves as Yes before January 1, 2030.\n- A **worldview-shattering explanation for UAPs** becomes accepted, which will be considered to occur if the question *[Will Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena have an ontologically-shocking explanation?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18075/shocking-uap-explanation-by-july-2028/)* resolves as **Yes**.\n - **World War III**, which will be considered to occur if the question *[Will there be a \"World War Three\" before 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/world-war-three-before-2050/)* resolves as **Yes** before January 1, 2030.\n- A **nuclear weapon is detonated as an act of war**, which will be considered to occur if the question *[Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4779/at-least-1-nuclear-detonation-in-war-by-2050/)* resolves as **Yes** before January 1, 2030.\n\nThis question will resolve as **No** (meaning this is no longer a \"normal\" world) if one or more of the above Metaculus questions has positively resolved before January 1, 2030.",
            "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/25801",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.5",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "4524",
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "Will the US conduct a nuclear test explosion before 2030?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4524.",
            "background": "[Trinity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trinity_(nuclear_test)) was the first nuclear weapon test. The test was conducted above ground on July 16, 1945 on what is now known as the White Sands Missile Range. Since Trinity, over 2,000 nuclear tests have been [conducted](https://www.fastcompany.com/3049706/visualized-every-haunting-nuclear-bomb-detonation-since-1945) world wide. \n\nThe US has conducted over 1,000 nuclear tests. The final test to be conducted by the US, code-name [Divder](https://www.ctbto.org/specials/testing-times/23-september-1992-last-us-nuclear-test), took place on September 23, 1992. Soon after, Gearge H. W. Bush  [declared a moratorium](https://www.thereaganvision.org/u-s-nuclear-weapons-testing-moratorium/) on nuclear weapons testing. In 1996, the US signed the [Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty](https://www.nti.org/learn/treaties-and-regimes/comprehensive-nuclear-test-ban-treaty-ctbt/) which bans any type of nuclear explosion. To date, the treaty has not been ratified by the appropriate countries (including the US) and has [not yet entered into force](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comprehensive_Nuclear-Test-Ban_Treaty).\n\nThe decision to end nuclear weapons testing has not been recommended by everyone. One of the [core missions](https://www.energy.gov/nnsa/missions/maintaining-stockpile) of the National Nuclear Security Administration is to \"ensure the United States maintains a safe, secure, and reliable nuclear stockpile through the application of unparalleled science, technology, engineering, and manufacturing.\" This is largely accomplished through [super computers](https://www.discovermagazine.com/technology/testing-nuclear-weapons-is-more-important-than-ever). However, some [argue](https://www.heritage.org/arms-control/report/keeping-nuclear-testing-the-table-national-security-imperative) that weapons tests are still needed to accomplish this mission.\n\nMore recently, there have been [reports](https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-administration-considered-a-nuclear-bomb-test-washington-post-2020-5) that the Trump administration has considered performing a nuclear test explosion in response to potential low-yield tests from Russia and China.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2020-06-02T15:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2029-12-31T13:01:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively to verification of a nuclear explosion by the CTBTO, the UN, or if an official government statement from the US is issued confirming the test. The question will resolve as ambiguous if two or more other countries accuse the US of performing a nuclear test explosion but there is no verification. Otherwise, this question will resolve negatively",
            "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4524",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.07",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "26360",
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "Five years after AGI, will there have been a World War III?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26360.",
            "background": "[World War I](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_I) was a global war originating in Europe that lasted from 28 July 1914 to 11 November 1918. One of the deadliest conflicts in history, an estimated 9 million combatants and 7 million civilians died as a direct result of the war.\n\n[World War II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II) was a global war that lasted from 1939 to 1945. A state of total war emerged, directly involving more than 100 million people from over 30 countries. World War II was the deadliest conflict in human history, marked by 50 to 85 million fatalities, most of whom were civilians in China or the Soviet Union. It included massacres, the genocide of the Holocaust, strategic bombing, premeditated death from starvation and disease, and the only historical use of nuclear weapons in war.\n\n[World War III](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_III) is the name given to a hypothetical third worldwide military conflict. The name has been in use since at least as early as 1941. Some have applied it loosely to refer to limited or smaller conflicts such as the Cold War or the War on Terror, while others have operated under the assumption that such a conflict would surpass both prior world wars in both scope and destructiveness.\n\nAs of 2024, World War III has not happened. There have, however, been a number of [close calls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_III#Historical_close_calls) that are widely regarded as having been narrowly-missed, possible catalysts for such a conflict.\n\nMeanwhile, some experts have warned that AGI could bring military instability, for example, through nuclear deterrence [being undermined](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26286/5y-after-agi-nuclear-deterrence-undermined/), or through a [multipolar](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18042/ai-singleton-or-multipolar/) bargaining failure:\n\n> Early AGIs might fail to make compatible demands with each other in high-stakes negotiations (we call this a \u201cbargaining failure\u201d). Bargaining failures can have catastrophic consequences, including great power conflicts, or AI triggering a [flash war](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LpM3EAakwYdS6aRKf/what-multipolar-failure-looks-like-and-robust-agent-agnostic#Flash_wars). [\u2014Mac\u00e9, DiGiovanni and Clifton, 2024](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uGfDx9es2pnYWaWJr/individually-incentivized-safe-pareto-improvements-in-open#Introduction)\n\nIn 1949, after the unleashing of nuclear weaponry at the end of WWII, physicist Albert Einstein suggested that any outcome of a possible WWIII would be so dire as to revert mankind back to the Stone Age. When asked by journalist Alfred Werner what types of weapons Einstein believed World War III might be fought with, Einstein warned, \u201cI know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.\u201d\n\n(H/T @Jgalt for writing the \u201c[Will there be a \"World War Three\" before 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/world-war-three-before-2050/)\u201d question, from which this one was adapted.)",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-07-22T17:30:00+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2036-01-01T00:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any time before the day 5 years after our \u201c[When will artificial general intelligence (AGI) arrive?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/)\u201d question resolves, both of these conditions are true:\n\n1) There is a military conflict involving countries representing, in totality, either at least 30% of world GDP (in PPP), or at least 50% of world population, in any year in which the conflict is ongoing. A country is said to be \u201cinvolved\u201d if it satisfies either of the following:\n\n* Credible reports indicate that the country has experienced at least 1,000 combined civilian or military deaths directly attributed to combat in the war (not including indirect deaths such as via famine).\n* Credible reports indicate that the country has directly caused at least 1,000 combined civilian or military deaths directly attributed to combat operations it has conducted as part of the war.\n\n2) At least 10 million people\u2014civilians or military personnel\u2014have been killed in the conflict.",
            "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26360",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.15",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "578",
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "Will humans go extinct before 2100?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578.",
            "background": "While the general feeling of most people, especially now that the cold war is (mostly) over, is that the risk of human extinction is extremely small, experts have assigned a significantly higher probability to the event.\n\nIn 2008 an [informal poll at the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference at the University of Oxford](https://www.webcitation.org/6YxiCAV0p?url=http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/gcr-report.pdf) yielded a median probability of human extinction by 2100 of 19%. Yet, one might want to be cautious when using this result as a good estimate of the true probability of human extinction, as there may be a powerful selection effect at play. Only those who assign a high probability to human extinction are likely to attend the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference in the first place, meaning that the survey was effectively sampling opinions from one extreme tail of the opinion distribution on the subject. Indeed, the conference report itself stated that the findings should be taken 'with a grain of salt'.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2017-11-12T08:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2100-01-02T00:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if there are no known humans alive on January 1, 2100.  For these purposes we'll define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors \u2013 via a chain of live births from mothers \u2013  circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring. (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count).  Any living humans living anywhere in the observable universe (or multiverse) (who are known to the entities operating Metaculus) on that date will be sufficient to resolve the question negatively.\n\nN.B. Even though it is obviously the case that if human extinction occurs Metaculus points won't be very valuable anymore and that it will be practically impossible to check for true human extinction (zero humans left), I would like to ask people not to let this fact influence their prediction and to predict in good faith",
            "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.006",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "19055",
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "Will Russia purchase an American weapons system before 2050?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19055.",
            "background": "Weapons sales from one country to another are often a useful indicator of positive geopolitical ties between those two nations. The logic behind this is that nations won't export weapons to other countries which visibly seek to compete with them militarily. For example, European NATO states make [extensive purchases](https://www.statista.com/statistics/248552/us-arms-exports-by-country/) of American weapons due to the United States's dominant position in the alliance. Likewise, Russian-allied countries such as Belarus and Kazakhstan [rely heavily](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1102702/countries-where-russia-is-a-major-arms-supplier/) on weapons imports from Russia to maintain their armed forces. \n\nIn the context of Russian-American relations, Russia purchasing American weapons systems would indicate the United States' strategic interests aligning more with those of Russia than they currently do, and vice versa. Moreover, it would indicate improvements in geopolitical ties between these two countries. This could occur as a result of changes in the political landscape of either country, external threats posed to both nations, or a number of other things.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-09-27T18:44:00+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2050-01-01T04:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2050, credible sources report that the Russian Federation has placed an order for a US-made weapons system *and* that this order has been approved by the [US Department of State](https://www.state.gov/u-s-arms-sales-and-defense-trade/#:~:text=Sales%20are%20approved%20following%20U.S.,support%20being%20offered%20for%20delivery.), or through whatever other legal means necessary to approve American weapons sales to foreign nations present at that time. Only the order will need to placed to resolve this question as Yes; the weapons system need not actually be delivered to Russia. The weapons system must be purchased directly from the United States, not through a intermediary/third country. Credible sources reporting that the United States has approved providing weapons systems to Russia free of charge will also resolve this question as Yes. If this does not occur before the resolution date, the question resolves as **No**.\n\nFor the purpose of this question, the following are included in the definition of \"weapons system\":\n\n- Tanks\n- Armored fighting vehicles\n- Towed artillery\n- Self-propelled artillery\n- Rocket artillery\n- Surface-to-air missile systems\n- Military radars\n- Fighter and multi-role aircraft\n- Attack/bomber aircraft\n- Military helicopters\n- Combat drones/UCAVs\n- AWACS\n- Aerial refueling aircraft\n- Other aircraft intended solely for military use\n- Aircraft carriers\n- Naval destroyers\n- Cruisers\n- Frigates\n- Corvettes\n- Submarines\n- Guided missiles/launchers\n- Weapons of mass destruction\n- Any ammunition or components made to be used specifically by an American-produced version of the above\n\nMetaculus moderators may use their discretion to determine if a particular American export to Russia falls into the above categories or otherwise has no practical application outside a military setting, such that it must be considered a weapons system.",
            "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19055",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.1",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "26336",
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "Will J.D. Vance become President of the United States before January 20, 2029?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26336.",
            "background": "[James David Vance](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J._D._Vance?useskin=vector), commonly known as J.D. Vance, born August 2, 1984, is an American politician of the Republican Party serving as the junior United States senator from Ohio since 2023, and was adopted as the [Republican nominee for Vice President of the United States](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/15/politics/trump-vp-pick-jd-vance/index.html) on July 15, 2024 after being selected as former President Donald J. Trump's running mate in his bid for a non-consecutive second term in the [2024 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election?useskin=vector), in which Trump may face a rematch against the Democratic Party ticket of President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris.\n\nIf elected vice president and sworn into office, Vance would be the youngest person (at 40 years old) to hold that office since Richard Nixon in 1953 (also 40).\n\nPrior to entering politics, Vance had been a United States Marine, a corporate lawyer, a venture capitalist closely associated with the billionaire [Peter Thiel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Thiel?useskin=vector), and a best-selling author.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-07-21T11:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2029-01-19T12:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **yes** if prior to 00:00 Eastern Time on January 20, 2029, J.D. Vance legally holds the office of President of the United States for any amount of time, for any reason (e.g. election to the presidency, or lawful succession to the presidency). The question will resolve as **no** if that does not occur.\n\nServing as [Acting President of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acting_President_of_the_United_States?useskin=vector) **does not** count for a yes resolution to this question.\n\nIf the Republican Party nominee does not win the 2024 US presidential election, this question will be **annulled**.",
            "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26336",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.198",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "7335",
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "Will Freedom House report that internet freedom has declined every year until 2025?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7335.",
            "background": "The Freedom on the Net [report](https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-net/2020/pandemics-digital-shadow) is an annual report on internet freedom worldwide, produced by Freedom House. It tracks changes in internet regulation across 65 countries. As of the 2020 edition, it claimed that freedom had been on the decline (operationalised as more countries' scores decreasing than increasing) for ten years in a row, with 26 countries' scores worsening and 22 improving in 2020. This question asks if this pattern of decline will persist for the next five years.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2021-06-20T07:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-06-30T23:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if for each year until 2025, inclusive, Freedom House reports more countries with a decrease in their internet freedom scores than with an increase",
            "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7335",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.9",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "5768",
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "Will any senior executives of these major public companies be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5768.",
            "background": "In 2006 [Jeffrey Skilling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffrey_Skilling) was imprisoned for 12 years for his part in the [Enron scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enron_scandal). \n\nSince then, there have been very few high profile convictions of corporate bad-actors. (Much ink was spilled over the lack of convictions of bankers during for the [2007-2008 financial crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008))\n\nThere have been prison terms for some more junior employees. [Tom Hayes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Hayes_(trader)) was imprisoned for his part of the [LIBOR fixing scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libor_scandal) although generally executives have escaped sanctions:\n\nThere are currently outstanding warrants for Wirecard executives, and a former [VW CEO is faces charges of fraud in court](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_emissions_scandal#Charges_against_Volkswagen_engineering/management).  (His imprisonment would result in this question resolving positive)",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2021-01-13T03:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2026-01-01T00:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if any senior executive (current or former) is convicted of crimes relating to actions taken in a corporate capacity (ie ignoring crimes committed which are unrelated to their companies and crimes committed for their own benefit at the expense of their employer (eg insider trading)), and their prison sentence begins between January 1, 2021 to January 1, 2026.\n\nSenior executives are those executives and directors who are named on official filings to their respective stock exchanges.\n\nAn executive will be eigible in this question if they are employed by a company that was listed in any of these major indicies at any time in 2021 or later, even if subsequently delisted:\n\n* S&P500\n* FTSE100\n* DAX40\n* CAC40\n* FTSE MIB\n* Nikkei 22",
            "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5768",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.35000000000000003",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "10325",
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "Will the International Court of Justice rule before 2040 that Russia must pay reparations to Ukraine?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10325.",
            "background": "The ICJ has issued an [injunction](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/16/un-court-orders-russia-to-cease-military-operations-in-ukraine) calling on Russia to withdraw. A legal expert [has suggested](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/war-crimes-charges-wouldnt-scare-putin/2022/03/11/f00d6ada-a150-11ec-9438-255709b6cddc_story.html) that such an injunction could lead to a determination that Russia must pay reparations to the ICJ.\n\nUkraine has indicated they are at least [considering](https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-polytics/3431749-icj-to-consider-issue-of-russian-reparations-to-ukraine.html) pursuing Russia for reparations. This wouldn't be unprecedented. In February 2022, the ICJ [ordered Uganda](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/9/un-court-orders-uganda-to-pay-325m-in-reparations-to-dr-congo) to pay reparations to the Democratic Republic of the Congo.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-09-27T19:25:00+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2039-12-31T11:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if credible news sources report that the International Court of Justice (ICJ) has ordered Russia to pay reparations to Ukraine or if this is listed on the [ICJ website](https://www.icj-cij.org/home). Reparations don't need to be paid for this question to resolved positively; there must only be an order from ICJ to pay them.",
            "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10325",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.7000000000000001",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "8556",
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "Will over half of the US Senate be women in 2050?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8556.",
            "background": "Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel predicted the following about women in the US in the year 2050 in a [blog post](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the) published August 25, 2021:\n\n>By 2050 there will be near-domination of society and the economy by women. [...] Just as the invention of the teenager as a consumer category reshaped popular culture, the ever increasing rise of independent women with disposable income will reshape society, from what entertainment is produced to who is an **elected official.**\n\nAccording to the [Pew Research Center, describing the 117th Congress](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2021/01/15/a-record-number-of-women-are-serving-in-the-117th-congress/)\n\n>In the Senate, women hold 24 of 100 seats, one fewer than the record number of seats they held in the last Congress.\n\nHattie Caraway became the [first woman elected to the US Senate](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Women_in_the_United_States_Senate) in 1931, though women remained under 10% of the senate membership until 2001.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2022-01-19T21:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2049-12-31T19:42:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if, on January 1, 2050, more than half of US Senators publicly identify as women",
            "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8556",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.21",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "24819",
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "Will the USMCA be extended promptly at its July 2026 joint review?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/24819.",
            "background": "The [United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF10997) (USMCA) is a trade deal between the United States, Mexico, and Canada that replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Signed on November 30, 2018, and implemented on July 1, 2020, the USMCA aimed to modernize trade relations and address issues that had emerged since NAFTA's implementation in 1994.\r\n\r\nThe USMCA [will undergo a review period](https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/agreements/FTA/USMCA/Text/34_Final_Provisions.pdf) on its sixth anniversary, where it will be extended for another 16 years if all parties agree to extend it. If the parties do not agree to extend the USMCA, it will trigger an annual review process held each year until the deal expires in 2036 unless an extension is agreed to at one of the annual reviews. The Trump administration [pushed for the review process](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/usmca-review-upcoming-elections-and-a-path-forward/) and some observers expect that if Trump is president during the review he will push for significant changes. [Biden has also taken a protective stance on trade](https://www.thedialogue.org/analysis/will-the-usmca-accord-survive-an-upcoming-review/) and may push for changes more favorable to key US industries. It is possible that a contentious review process could lead to one or more parties withholding consent for an extension.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-06-02T13:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2026-07-01T22:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, following the joint review of the USMCA held in July 2026, the USMCA is extended for another 16-year period. The question will resolve as **No** if the joint review ends without extension, triggering the annual review process described in paragraph 4 of [Article 34.7 of the USMCA](https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/agreements/FTA/USMCA/Text/34_Final_Provisions.pdf).",
            "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/24819",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.2",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "15370",
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "Will the United States score in the bottom 50% for academic freedom in 2025 (according to the AFI)?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15370.",
            "background": "The [Academic Freedom Index (AFI)](https://academic-freedom-index.net/) is a comprehensive and widely recognized tool for assessing de facto levels of academic freedom across the world. The AFI evaluates five key indicators of academic freedom, including the freedom to research and teach, freedom of academic exchange and dissemination, institutional autonomy, campus integrity, and freedom of academic and cultural expression. The index currently covers 179 countries and territories, and is considered the most comprehensive dataset available on the subject of academic freedom. The index employs a methodology that includes assessments by 2,197 country experts, standardized questionnaires, and a well-established statistical model, implemented and adapted by the [V-Dem project](https://v-dem.net/). The 2023 report (of the period up to December 2022) places the United States of the America in the Top 40-50% bracket (pg. 2-3) and outlines the following threats to academic freedom: \n\n> China, India, the United States of America and Mexico are among the most populous countries where academic freedom has significantly fallen back over the past decade. These developments have occurred in different political settings and do not all follow the same pattern.\n\n> The United States of America presents a different picture. **After a long period of relatively high academic freedom levels, four out of five indicators visibly declined in 2021** \u2013 the year after President Donald Trump, who repeatedly made statements highly critical of science and academia, was voted out of office. Although some federal actions detrimental to academic freedom were taken during his administration, educational matters in the USA are largely regulated by individual states, which have increasingly used their authority to interfere in academic affairs since 2021. At least nine states, all Republican-led, have adopted bills that ban the teaching of concepts related to \u201ccritical race theory\u201d in higher education institutions. Several states are also targeting tenure in public universities, adding to the already precarious status of academic employment. Some states now also allow students to record class lectures without the professor\u2019s consent. Furthermore, influential conservative groups are lobbying state legislatures to withdraw funding from scientific fields such as gender, minority studies, and environmental science, and various groups are maintaining public \u201cwatchlists\u201d of professors perceived as radical leftists. Despite efforts to polarize and intimidate, AFI data on academics\u2019 freedom of expression indicates that scholars in the USA remain able to publically voice their expertise, even on politically salient issues.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-03-06T21:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-12-31T12:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as a **Yes** if the United States of America is ranked in the bottom 50% for academic freedom in 2025, which includes the following brackets: Bottom 10%, Bottom 10-20%, Bottom 20-30%, Bottom 30-40%, and Bottom 40-50%, according to the [Academic Freedom Index.](https://academic-freedom-index.net/)\n\nThis question will resolve as a **No** if the United States of America is ranked in the top 40-50% or higher on the Academic Freedom Index for the year 2025.\n\nThis question will resolve as ambiguous if the Academic Freedom Index is no longer published, if the AFI does not report data for the year 2025 (but does report data for 2026 or later), or if the AFI does not report the 2025 data by December 31, 2028.",
            "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15370",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.5",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "7591",
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "Will 3 mainstream American news outlets report that a rebel group perpetrated the 2013 Ghouta Chemical Attack before August 21, 2033?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7591.",
            "background": "[The 2013 Ghouta chemical attack](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghouta_chemical_attack) during the [Syrian Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syrian_civil_war) was the deadliest use of chemical weapons since the Iran-Iraq war.  Intelligence agencies of Israel, the UK, the US, France, Turkey, and Germany concluded that the Syrian government of President Bashar al-Assad was most likely responsible for the attacks.  Russia by contrast blamed an opposition group.\n\nThe fact-checking website [Rootclaim's](https://www.rootclaim.com/analysis/Who-carried-out-the-chemical-attack-in-Ghouta-on-August-21-2013) analysis concluded there was a 96% probability the rebel group Liwa al-Islam perpetrated the attack, and Rootclaim [offered](https://blog.rootclaim.com/100000-syria-debate-challenge/) a [100,000 dollar challenge](https://www.rootclaim.com/rootclaim_challenge) on this topic.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2021-08-17T04:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2033-08-21T04:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, on or before August 21, 2033 (20 years after the Ghouta chemical attack), three major mainstream American news outlets run an article suggesting that the Syrian government may not have carried out the Ghouta chemical attack, and at least one author of each of the articles believes that there is a more than 50% probability that the Syrian government did not carry out the attack.  Otherwise this question will resolve as **No**.",
            "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7591",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.45",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "26162",
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "Will renewable energy exceed 55% of global electricity generation before 2030, according to Our World in Data?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26162.",
            "background": "According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), keeping warming to no more than 1.5\u00b0C requires global carbon emissions to peak in 2025 and be reduced by 43% by 2030.  (Source: the IPCC's [Summary for Policymakers pdf](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg3/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGIII_SummaryForPolicymakers.pdf))\n\nAccording to OWID, the past ten years through 2023 had this history:\n\n| Year | Percentage of Electricity Generated from Renewables |\n|------|----------------------------------------------------|\n| 2014 | 22.255533                                          |\n| 2015 | 22.991205                                          |\n| 2016 | 23.754622                                          |\n| 2017 | 24.542074                                          |\n| 2018 | 25.178684                                          |\n| 2019 | 26.18718                                           |\n| 2020 | 28.076723                                          |\n| 2021 | 28.140446                                          |\n| 2022 | 29.41609                                           |\n| 2023 | 30.238085                                          |\n\nStanford Professor Tony Seba of RethinkX [has forecast](https://tonyseba.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/RethinkingEnergy2020-2030-LRR.pdf) even more aggressive growth in renewables through the 2020s, saying: \n\n>The disruption of the energy sector during the\n2020s will be driven by the convergence of three\nclean energy technologies: solar photovoltaics,\nonshore wind power, and lithium-ion batteries\n(SWB). The costs and capabilities of each of these\ntechnologies have been consistently improving for\nseveral decades. Since 2010 alone, solar PV\ncapacity costs have fallen over 80%, onshore wind\ncapacity costs have fallen more than 45%, and\nlithium-ion battery capacity costs have fallen\nalmost 90%. These technologies will continue to\ntraverse their remarkable experience curves such\nthat by 2030 their costs will have decreased a\nfurther 70%, 40%, and 80% respectively.\n\nOther forecasters have been decidedly more pessimistic about the world achieving its growth rate targets in renewables by 2030, such as [according to Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/renewables-growth-rate-insufficient-reach-2030-target-says-irena-2024-07-11/) a recent report by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) which calculated a shortfall at the current rate of renewables adoption. \n\nSee Also \n\n- [IPCC Sixth Assessment Report](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg3/)\n- [AP More and faster: Electricity from clean sources reaches 30% of global total](https://apnews.com/article/renewable-energy-climate-solar-wind-fossil-fuels-2718fce0ed37232dc25dbf46fff87955)",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-07-16T19:14:00+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2029-12-30T17:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the World share of electricity production from renewables exceeds 55% for any year before 2030, according to the dataset by Our World in Data (OWID) which can be accessed at [this link](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/share-electricity-renewables?tab=chart&country=~OWID_WRL), with the precise numbers able to be accessed by clicking on the download icon located in the bottom right corner of the chart.\n\nIf at the time it posts its 2029 data OWID has not reported the global share of electricity production from renewables exceeding 55% for any year through then, this question resolves as **No**.",
            "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26162",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.04",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "20767",
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "Will the Detroit Pistons change their name by 2055?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20767.",
            "background": "The [Detroit Pistons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Detroit_Pistons) started as the \"Fort Wayne Zollner Pistons\", a semi-professional team in 1937 in Indiana. The founder, [Fred Zollner](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fred_Zollner), had a foundry that made piston engines in Fort Wayne, Indiana. In 1948, the team became the \"Fort Wayne Pistons\" when they joined the Basketball Association of America (BAA). In 1949, Zollner brokered the formation of the National Basketball Association from merger of the BAA and National Basketball League. In 1957, Zollner moved his team to Detroit, as his team was unable to generate enough revenue in Fort Wayne's small market. Zollner retained the \"Pistons\" name as it was still apt - Detroit was considered then as the center of the automotive industry.\n\n[There is currently a transition to electric vehicles](https://www.iea.org/energy-system/transport/electric-vehicles) where many observers expect it to completely displace internal combustion engines in the next few decades. Electric vehicles do not use pistons in propulsion. Hydrogen vehicles also do not.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-01-25T19:55:00+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2055-01-01T20:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question positively resolves if the Detroit Pistons change their team nickname, non-trivially and as reported by official team news reports, before January 1st, 2055.\n\nIf the Detroit Pistons move their team to another city, the question remains unresolved so long as the team nickname remains the Pistons.",
            "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20767",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.09",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "15206",
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "Will the global methane output from the energy sector be at least 145 Mt for the year 2025?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15206.",
            "background": "Methane is a potent greenhouse gas that is emitted by human activities, such as energy production (like natural gas systems) and livestock raising, as well as by natural sources such as wetlands. It has direct and indirect effects on climate, human health, and vegetation productivity. Methane has a shorter atmospheric lifetime than CO2, but it is more efficient at trapping radiation. Its impact on climate change over [20 years is 86 times greater than CO2 and over a 100-year period it is 28 times greater](https://www.ccacoalition.org/en/slcps/methane). Reducing methane emissions can have positive effects on the climate, crop yields, and human health. According to the [Climate & Clean Air Coalition](https://www.ccacoalition.org/en/slcps/methane): \n\n> Atmospheric methane concentrations have grown as a result of human activities related to agriculture, including rice cultivation and ruminant livestock; coal mining; oil and gas production and distribution; biomass burning; and municipal waste landfilling. Emissions are projected to continue to increase by 2030 unless immediate action is taken.\n\n> Emissions from coal mining and the oil and gas sector could be reduced by over 65% by preventing gas leakage during transmission and distribution, recovering and using gas at the production stage, and by pre-mine degasification and recovery of methane during coal mining.\n\nThis potential reduction of emissions by increases of efficiency is highlighted by a [report by the IEA](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-methane-tracker-2022/overview), claiming that \u201c[i]f all countries were to perform as well as Norway, global methane emissions from oil and gas operations would fall by more than 90%\u201d. The most efficient country is Norway, which emits almost 0 kg of methane per GJ compared to Russia\u2019s 0.29. \n\nBelow is the data from 2022 [IEA report](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-methane-tracker-2022/overview) on methane emissions from the energy sector by sector and year. For the year 2021, the total methane emissions from the energy sector were 135.2 Mt\n\n| Year | Oil (Mt)| Natural gas (Mt)| Coal (Mt)| Bioenergy (Mt)| Total (Mt)|\n| ---- | --- | -----------| ---- | --------- | ----- |\n| 2000 | 43.9| 22.3       | 23.9 | 9.7       | 99.8  |\n| 2005 | 47.9| 26.3       | 31.9 | 10.1      | 116.2 |\n| 2010 | 46.4| 29.8       | 39.7 | 10.4      | 126.3 |\n| 2015 | 46.5| 33.9       | 42.7 | 10.1      | 133.2 |\n| 2019 | 45.9| 39.7       | 43.4 | 9.1       | 138.1 |\n| 2020 | 41.2| 38.5       | 41.9 | 9.1       | 130.7 |\n| 2021 | 42.9| 39.6       | 43.6 | 9.1       | **135.2** |\n\nAgainst the backdrop of projected total emissions increase until 2030, understanding the trajectory of global methane emissions remains crucial due to its potential to reduce emissions without sacrificing energy output and the significant impact of methane emissions on climate change.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-03-01T23:59:00+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-12-31T12:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the sum of all energy sector methane emissions globally in the IEA Global Methane Tracker for the year 2025 is 145 Mt or more.\n\nThis question will resolve as **No** if the sum of all energy sector methane emissions globally in the IEA Global Methane Tracker for the year 2025 is less than 145 Mt. \n\nThe resolution source is the [Global Methane Tracker](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-methane-tracker-2022/overview) by the [IEA](https://www.iea.org/). It is anticipated that the 2025 data will be reported in the Tracker 2026. \n\nThe total methane emissions will be calculated by summing up all energy sector emissions. This includes oil, natural gas, coal, and bioenergy, as well as any additional energy sector that may be added in the meantime.\n\nBecause of the substantive differences in methane emission estimation techniques (the IEA estimates are in some cases more than 70% higher than national government numbers), this question will resolve as ambiguous if the IEA discontinues the Global Methane Tracker",
            "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15206",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.62",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "10176",
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "Will more than 34 countries have committed to a stringent anti-solar-geoengineering pact before 2026?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10176.",
            "background": "",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2022-11-03T04:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2026-01-01T09:59:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "[According to Wikipedia,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_geoengineering) Solar geoengineering, or solar radiation modification, is a type of climate engineering in which sunlight (solar radiation) would be reflected back to outer space to limit or reverse human-caused climate change.\n\n[An independent initiative](https://www.solargeoeng.org) calls for an International Non-Use Agreement regarding solar geoengineering. The initiators' view is [that solar geoengineering is currently not desirable due to associated risks.](https://wires.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wcc.754)\n\nThus, the initiative requests nations to prohibit the research and deployment of solar geoengineering.  Furthermore, nations are asked to not support solar geoengineering in international institutions and to not grant any funds or patents.\n\n***Will more than 34 countries have committed to a stringent diplomatic agreement against solar geoengineering, before 2026?***\n\nThe question resolves **Yes** if, by the end of the day GMT on December 31st, 2025, 35 or more countries have committed as a matter of treaty obligation to:\n\n1. Ban solar geoengineering experiments\n\n    #####AND\n\n2. Ban deployment of any technologies aimed at influencing the global climate by deliberately adding substances to the global atmosphere\n\n    #####AND\n\n3. Bar government funds from any research into developing solar geoengineering capabilities, domestically and internationally\n\n    #####AND\n\n4. Bar patent rights for inventions of a single-purpose solar geoengineering design\n\n    #####AND\n\n5. Agree to work against the development or deployment of solar geoengineering capabilities in international relations and within international institutions.\n\nLand use and regulatory changes, vegetation planting, roof whitening, etc need not be banned as \"solar geoengineering\" under such a pact for the question to resolve \"yes.\"\n\n**All** of these criteria must be met by any treaty, and more than 34 countries must fully commit to these provisions, without reservations other than on purely procedural or intergovernmental questions, for the question to resolve \"yes.\"\n\nOtherwise it resolves **No** if *midnight on January 1st, 2026, GMT* arrives without these circumstances coming into being.\n\n*This question also has a less stringent companion:* [Will at least ten countries have committed to *any* diplomatic agreement restricting solar geoengineering, before 2026?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13467/any-anti-solar-geo-engineering-pact-by-2026/)",
            "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10176",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.047",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "20816",
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "Do fish live in Lake Vostok?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20816.",
            "background": "Lake Vostok is the largest subglacial lake in Antarctica. It is one of the largest freshwater lakes in the world but exists beneath approximately 4000 meters of ice.\n\nLake Vostok is poorly explored. Scientists have recovered microbial DNA from the lake, but claims of fish DNA recovery [remain disputed](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature.2013.13364).",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-12-29T20:19:00+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2049-12-31T17:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if a peer-reviewed scientific study of samples from [Lake Vostok](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Vostok) reveals conclusive evidence, before 2050, that fish live in the lake. This evidence could include:\n\n- Fish genetic sequences that cannot be attributed to known fish species\n\n- Photographic evidence of a fish\n\n- Recovery of a fish, in part or in whole",
            "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20816",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.05",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "25720",
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "Before 2030, will citizen science initiatives to collect plant phenomic/genomic data across the globe receive at least $10 million in investment?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/25720.",
            "background": "Describing and cataloging plant species worldwide, and especially in less developed countries, often encounters bureaucratic obstacles with permits, funding and visas. An alternative is to train local residents, especially students, in how to perform the technical tasks required, so they can contribute data about their home regions. That, however, requires funding; will it happen in the next five years?\n\nSee Also \n\nProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences: [Data-driven approaches can harness crop diversity to address heterogeneous needs for breeding products](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10083534/)\n\nNature Ecology & Evolution: [Citizen science plant observations encode global trait patterns](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41559-022-01904-x)\n\nScience Advances: [The commonness of rarity: Global and future distribution of rarity across land plants](https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aaz0414)",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-07-03T15:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2029-06-30T12:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "The question resolves as **Yes** if:\n\n* there are initiatives to involve ordinary people in collecting scientific data about plants in their local area;\n* these initiatives cover at least 30 countries in the Africa, Asia/Pacific and Latin America/Caribbean regions, with at least 4 countries in each of them;\n* in total, these initiatives receive at least $10 million in monetary investments.",
            "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/25720",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.5",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "10436",
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "Will a massive solar storm occur before 2050?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10436.",
            "background": "By virtue of their rarity, extreme space weather events - **massive solar storms**, such as the [Carrington event](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2002JA009504) of 1859, are difficult to study, their rates of occurrence are difficult to estimate, and prediction of a specific future event is virtually impossible. According to [this study](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2011SW000734), the probability of another Carrington event (based on Dst < \u2212850 nT) occurring within the next decade is \u223c12%. It has been suggested that a geomagnetic storm on the scale of the solar storm of 1859 today would cause billions or even trillions of dollars of damage to satellites, power grids and radio communications, and could cause electrical blackouts on a massive scale that might not be repaired for weeks, months, or even years. Such sudden electrical blackouts may threaten food production.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2022-05-24T21:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2049-12-31T23:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolves as **Yes** if the [Disturbance Storm Time index](https://wdc.kugi.kyoto-u.ac.jp/dstdir/index.html) reaches less than -850 nT (the Carrington event reached between -1600 and -1760 nT) before January 1, 2050.",
            "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10436",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.30000000000000004",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "13467",
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "Will at least ten countries have committed to any diplomatic agreement restricting solar geoengineering, before 2026?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13467.",
            "background": "[According to Wikipedia,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_geoengineering) Solar geoengineering, or solar radiation modification, is a type of climate engineering in which sunlight (solar radiation) would be reflected back to outer space to limit or reverse human-caused climate change.\n\n[An independent initiative](https://www.solargeoeng.org) calls for an International Non-Use Agreement regarding solar geoengineering. The initiators' view is [that solar geoengineering is currently not desirable due to associated risks.](https://wires.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wcc.754)\n\nThis question asks a simpler and less strict question than [its companion](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10176/stringent-anti-solar-geo-engng-pact-by-2026/); whether there will be *any* pact against solar geoengineering, even if it doesn't meet the [full 5 core commitments and measures](https://www.solargeoeng.org/non-use-agreement/) of the proposed Agreement.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2022-11-03T04:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2026-01-01T09:59:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "The question resolves positively if, by the end of the day GMT on December 31st, 2025, 10 or more countries have committed as a matter of treaty obligation to discourage, restrict, or bar solar geoengineering activities in whole or part.\n\nOtherwise it resolves **No** if *midnight on January 1st, 2026, GMT* arrives without these circumstances coming into being",
            "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13467",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.06",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "9532",
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "Will China be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9532.",
            "background": "Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of [several previous Metaculus questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&search=Embryo%20selection) and a [notebook](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/9247/polygenic-selection-of-embryos/).  A [previous Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7925/china-and-designer-babies/) asked if most of the first 100 newborns selected for intelligence would be born in China.\n\n[Some commentators](https://www.edge.org/response-detail/23838) have suggested that China, which has a quickly growing [biotechnology industry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biotechnology_industry_in_China), will embrace embryo selection for intelligence.  The [Beijing Genomic Institute](https://www.vice.com/en/article/5gw8vn/chinas-taking-over-the-world-with-a-massive-genetic-engineering-program) had a [cognitive genomics project](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BGI_Group#Cognitive_Genomics_Project), though it was never completed.  In 2019, Chinese scientist He Jiankui created the world's first CRISPR babies, but the Chinese government [jailed him for three years](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-50944461).  Nevertheless, China has embraced [embryo selection for diseases](https://www.nature.com/articles/548272a) through preimplantation genetic diagnosis (PGD).  While polling on mainland China is [restricted](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_research_and_opinion_polling_in_China), a [2020 Pew poll](https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2020/12/10/biotechnology-research-viewed-with-caution-globally-but-most-support-gene-editing-for-babies-to-treat-disease/) found Taiwan and Singapore, which like China are mostly [Han](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Han_Chinese), have a relatively high level of support for \"changing a baby's characteristics\" to improve intelligence.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2022-01-26T05:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2040-01-01T05:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if China is the first country with over a million people to have more than 10% of its newborns developed from embryos selected for polygenic scores for intelligence, according to credible reports. If no country has >10% of its newborns selected for intelligence by 2300-01-01 it resolves as ambiguous.\n\nMoreover, for the question to resolve positively, the particular procedure used for embryo selection must, in expectation, result in an increase of at least 1/5 standard deviations in IQ (i.e. 3 IQ points), according to credible evidence",
            "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9532",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.15",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "3531",
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "Will the star Betelgeuse be observed to go supernova before 2030?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3531.",
            "background": "",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2020-01-30T00:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2030-01-01T07:59:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "In the last few months, the star Betelgeuse has [dimmed in the sky](http://www.astronomerstelegram.org/?read=13410), prompting some media outlets to speculate that it will soon be observed to go supernova. Some astronomers, such as Phil Plait, have [responded](https://www.syfy.com/syfywire/dont-panic-betelgeuse-is-almost-certainly-not-about-to-explode) by saying that it is unlikely to explode any time soon,\n\n> Even at the prodigious rates it's going through helium, it'll probably be about 100,000 years before it explodes.\n\nThis question resolves positively if one reliable media outlet reports that the star Betelgeuse has been observed exploding in the sky before 12 AM January 1st, 2030 UTC.",
            "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3531",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.001",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "1321",
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "Will Ray Kurzweil be proven right?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1321.",
            "background": "",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2018-08-05T07:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2099-12-31T05:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "Ray Kurzweil is an author, computer scientist, inventor and futurist. He is best known for making what many consider to be extremely optimistic prediction about the future of technology that involve exponential growth leading up to <a href=' https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity'>technological singularity</a>, which Kurzweil predicts will happen circa. 2045. A list of Kurzweil's predictions can be found <a href='https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictions_made_by_Ray_Kurzweil'>here</a>.\n\n<strong>Will Ray Kurzweil be proven generally right in his predictions?</strong>\n\nNote that the question refers to Kurzweil's predictions as of the time of the the writing of the question. Given that 'generally right' is hard to define, the question shall use consensus forming to create its own answer.\n\n<li>If the community prediction at the time of closing is > 80%, then the questions resolves positive.</li>\n\n<li> If the community prediction at the time of closing is < 20%, then the questions resolves negative.</li>\n\n<li> If the community prediction at the time of closing is \u2265 20% and \u226480%, then a member of Metaculus staff shall decide resolution. </li>\n\nTo help reduce the vagueness of the question, Metaculus may, at its discretion, periodically survey the perceived correctness of Kurzweil's prediction, per a fixed methodology similar to that employed in [this report](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kbA6T3xpxtko36GgP/assessing-kurzweil-the-results), but with a modification to survey and weight by importance of the prediction.",
            "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1321",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.1",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "1625",
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "By January 1, 2050, will it be possible to increase a healthy adult human's IQ by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1625.",
            "background": "",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2018-12-16T23:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2050-01-01T00:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "Arguably the most important single difference between humans and all other life is the degree to which human intelligence allows for radically more complex forms of socialization, cooperation, activity and achievement. No other species in the universe (to our knowledge) has created the kind of complex civilization that humans have created, or anything close to it, and this is due to the large advantage that humans have acquired in intelligence.\n\nThe most widely-accepted tool for measuring human intelligence is the IQ test. The population average is fixed arbitrarily at 100, and the results of a population fit a Gaussian probability distribution, also known as a bell curve. Approximately two-thirds of the population score between one standard deviation below the mean and one standard deviation above the mean. About 2.5% of the population scores at or above two standard deviations above the mean, and 2.5% scores at or below two standard deviations below the mean. The difference in ability this represents is large. A person with an IQ two standard deviations below the mean is considered to have less than a 50% chance of graduating from high school, whereas a person with an IQ two standard deviations above the mean has a slightly higher IQ than the average holder of a Juris Doctor degree (an IQ of 126).\n\nPsychometricians generally regard IQ tests as having high statistical reliability and predictive validity.\n\nA high statistical reliability implies that although test-takers may have varying scores when taking the same test on differing occasions, and although they may have varying scores when taking different IQ tests at the same age, the scores generally agree with one another and across time. \n\nA high predictive validity implies that the results of the test provide you useful insights into the test-taker, and IQ scores are significantly correlated with a number of important life outcomes including job performance, academic achievement, likelihood of being out of the labor force more than one month out of the year, and many others. More information is available [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intelligence_quotient). \n\nBecause of the importance of human intelligence, it would arguably be highly valuable both to individuals and to humanity if it were possible to meaningfully increase it through some kind of intervention, whether medical, technological or otherwise.\n\n**By January 1, 2050, will it be possible to increase a healthy adult human's IQ by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days?**\n\nThis mean score is to be generated from three standardized IQ tests taken by a reliable test-taker giving their best effort using either the Raven's Progressive Matrices test or a similar non-verbal culture-fair test, with the post-intervention scores generated by the same method, and with the tests before and after intervention supervised and the results validated by at least three suitably qualified psychometricians independent of the persons or group responsible for the attempt.\n\nFurthermore, the test-taker must be independent of the group or individual responsible for developing or carrying out the attempt, and the test-taker must not be a professional psychometrician, professional quizzer, or have ever been involved in the design of intelligence or other psychometric tests.\n\nThe final test score must be obtained within 30 days of the commencement of whatever intervention is utilized in the attempt to increase the test-taker's score (in order to minimize the possibility of an individual achieving such a large score increase through extensive training and practice).\n\nFinally, the mean score for the test subject cannot initially be 2.5 standard deviations above the mean or higher, as it is unclear how reliable the IQ test is for scores above the +4.5 sigma range (i.e. after a 2 standard deviation increase on a 15 SD scale), given that these scores are exceptionally rare.  Nor may the test subject initially score under 1 standard deviation of the United States mean score.\n\nThis question will resolve positively if by January 1, 2050, \n\n- *30 healthy adult humans* under the age of 65 have their IQ scores increased by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days, relative to their previous mean score generated *from 3 separate tests*, or\n\n- *100 healthy adult humans* under the age of 65 have their IQ scores increased by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days, relative to their previous mean score generated *from 2 separate tests*, or\n\n- *200 healthy adult humans* under the age of 65 have their IQ scores increased by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days, relative to their previous mean score generated *from 1 separate test*.",
            "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1625",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.059000000000000004",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "1501",
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "Ragnar\u00f6k Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nanotechnology failure-mode?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501.",
            "background": "*You can now see an excellent visualization of global catastrophic risks estimates produced in the Ragnar\u00f6k series [here](https://possibleworldstree.com/).*\n\n\nIn 1959, Richard Feynman pointed out that nanometre\u2010scale machines could be built and operated, and that the precision inherent in molecular construction would make it easy to build multiple identical copies. This raised the possibility of manufacturing at ever increasing speeds, in which production systems could rapidly and cheaply increase their productive capacity. This in turn suggested the possibility of destructive runaway self\u2010replication.\n\nAs Eric Drexler, a nanotech pioneer, first warned in [Engines of Creation](http://xaonon.dyndns.org/misc/engines_of_creation.pdf) in 1986 (pg. 146), \n\n> In a mature form, molecular nanotechnology would enable the construction of bacterium-scale self-replicating mechanical robots that can feed on dirt or other organic matter. Such replicators could eat up the biosphere or destroy it by other means such as by poisoning it, burning it, or blocking out sunlight. \n\n> Plants with \u2018leaves\u2019 no more efficient than today\u2019s solar cells could out\u2010compete real plants, crowding the biosphere with an inedible foliage. Tough omnivorous \u201cbacteria\u201d could out\u2010compete real bacteria: They could spread like blowing pollen, replicate swiftly, and reduce the biosphere to dust in a matter of days. A person of malicious intent in possession of this technology might cause a catastrophe on Earth by releasing such nanobots into the environment.\n\nSuch self-replicating systems, if not countered, could make the earth largely uninhabitable. Other potential risks include [ecological and health disasters resulting from nano-pollutants](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pollution_from_nanomaterials), [the use of misuse of nanotechnology weaponry](https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/are-nanoweapons-paving-the-road-to-human-extinction_us_59332a52e4b00573ab57a3fe), and, given the general-purpose character of nanotech, possibly much more.\n\nMoreover, the technology to produce a destructive nanobot seems considerably easier to develop than the technology to create an effective defense against such an attack (a global nanotech immune system, an \u201cactive shield\u201d). Regulation might also be hard. Nanotech doesn\u2019t require rare radioactive isotopes or large, easily identifiable manufacturing plants, as does production of nuclear weapons.\n\nAlthough only small portion of scientists might currently be working to develop self-replicating nanotech, [a recent study done for NASA's Institute for Advanced Concepts](https://foresight.org/study_finds_self-replicating_nanomachines_feasible/) by General Dynamics Advanced Information Systems suggests that a useful self-replicating machine could be less complex than a [Pentium 4 chip](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pentium_4), and uncovered no road blocks to extending macroscale systems to microscale and then to nanoscale self-replicating systems. Drexler [points out that much of recent surprising progress](https://www.theguardian.com/science/small-world/2013/oct/21/big-nanotech-atomically-precise-manufacturing-apm) comes from disparate fields, and isn't labelled generally \"nanotechnology\".\n\n<small>\n\nThis question is part of the Ragnar\u00f6k Question Series. Check out the other questions in the series:\n\n1. [If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n\n2. [If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n\n3. [If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n\n4. [If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\n\n5. [If a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/)\n\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n\n6. [By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n\n7. [Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n\n8. [Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n\n9. [Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n\n10. [Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n\n11. [Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\n\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n\n</small>",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2018-10-13T07:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2100-01-01T23:59:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "**If a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to the deployment nanotechnology?**\n\nIn [the headline question to this series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/), we defined a global catastrophe as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years.\n\nThe question resolves positively if a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less before 2100, and resolves as ambiguous if no global catastrophe occurs. Years are here defined as consecutive calendar years.",
            "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.03",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "22377",
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "Will Python still be most popular programming language at the end of 2030?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22377.",
            "background": "There are plenty of programming languages (PLs) being used across various fields of business, science, and more. Some are considered suitable for specific tasks, while others have broader applications. For those studying or seeking programming-related employment it is essential to understand which PLs are currently relevant to increase their chances of finding a job.\n\nThe question itself is tricky. How can we measure the popularity of a PL? One way is to measure the percentage of PLs used in [GitHub projects](https://octoverse.github.com/2022/top-programming-languages). However, not every company uses GitHub repositories; there are alternatives such as GitLab, GitFlic, etc. Additionally, some companies use their local servers to store their projects, making it challenging to gather such information.\n\nAnother method of measuring PLs' popularity is by calculating ratings based on the hits from popular search engines, similar to what the [TIOBE index](https://www.tiobe.com/tiobe-index/programminglanguages_definition/) does. This approach is more suitable and can provide us with more representative and extensive data because most languages are continually evolving. Even experienced programmers need to stay updated with newly introduced changes.\n\nAs of March 5, 2024, Python is considered the most popular language according to the TIOBE Index. Python is a high-level, general-purpose programming language. Its design philosophy emphasizes code readability through significant indentation. Python is dynamically typed and garbage-collected. It supports multiple programming paradigms, including structured (particularly procedural), object-oriented, and functional programming. Python is widely used in data science, machine learning, web development, etc.\n\nWhile popularity alone is not the sole factor for those choosing their future study area, understanding trends can be helpful. Many \"younger\" languages like Rust, Go, Swift, and others are gaining popularity and may potentially dominate in the near future.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-04-12T14:20:00+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2030-10-30T16:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if on December 31, 2030, Python occupies first place of the [TIOBE Index rankings](https://www.tiobe.com/tiobe-index/). If Python is not in first place on that date, the question resolves as **No**.",
            "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22377",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.66",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "23749",
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "Will an anthropomorphic robot with artificial intelligence win in a football (soccer) penalty shootout against a professional human player before January 1, 2035?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/23749.",
            "background": "Artificial intelligence has already beaten humans in games such as chess ([Deep Blue PC, 1997](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0004370201001291)), Go ([AlphaGo description](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature24270)) or Texas Hold'em ([Libratus AI](https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aao1733)). However, all these games are logical or intellectual. They do not require special mechanisms to interact with other objects, such as a ball in football. There are already prototypes of humanoid robots that demonstrate the skills of playing football ([NewScientist](https://www.newscientist.com/article/2426328-watch-mini-humanoid-robots-showing-off-their-football-skills/)). The question is whether in about 10 years this area will be able to progress in such a way as to create a humanoid capable of playing football as a human as a goalkeeper or striker.\n\nSee also Metaculus: [When will robots win a game of association football (soccer) against professional human players?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19930/robots-beat-humans-in-football/)",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-05-25T11:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2034-12-30T10:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "For a positive outcome, a video must be released before January 1, 2035, showing an anthropomorphic robot defeating a professional human football player in a 1-on-1 football penalty shootout by either: \n\n1. the robot acting as a striker who takes a penalty kick.\n\n1. the robot acting as a goalkeeper.\n\nA negative outcome assumes that the event described above did not occur.\nThe deadline for this criterion is January 1, 2035.",
            "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/23749",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.75",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "1536",
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "Will a third LIGO detector be built in India before 2028?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1536.",
            "background": "The [Laser Interferometer Gravitational Wave Observatory](https://www.ligo.caltech.edu/) (LIGO) has been responsible for some tremendously exciting science this decade.\n\n* On [September 14, 2015](https://www.ligo.caltech.edu/news/ligo20160211), LIGO detected (through gravitational waves) the merger of two black holes billions of light years away.\n* This triumph opened a new era of [gravitational wave astronomy](https://www.space.com/39162-gravitational-waves-new-era-of-astronomy-2017.html), giving us a radical new tool to probe the cosmos.\n* LIGO and friends (like VIRGO in Europe) have since seen other black hole mash-ups and even, amazingly, the smashing of [2 neutron stars](https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/10/16/557557544/astronomers-strike-gravitational-gold-in-colliding-neutron-stars).\n* The engineering required to make this observatory hop is [just ridiculous](http://www.kavlifoundation.org/how-ligo-works).\n\nHowever, per astrophysicist Ethan Siegel, LIGO [misses ~100,000 black hole mergers every year](https://medium.com/starts-with-a-bang/ligo-misses-100-000-black-hole-mergers-a-year-d3184f5d193a). Whoa! \n\nWe need backup, apparently!\n\nWell, help may soon be on the way, in the form of another LIGO detector under construction in India. [LIGO-India](http://www.gw-indigo.org/tiki-index.php?page=LIGO-India) \"is a planned advanced gravitational-wave observatory to be located in India as part of the worldwide network.\" Possible benefits include:\n\n> Adding a new detector to the existing network will increase the expected event rates, and will boost the detection confidence of new sources (by increasing the sensitivity, sky coverage and duty cycle of the network). But the dramatic improvement from LIGO-India would come in the ability of localizing GW sources in the sky. Sky-location of the GW sources is computed by combining data from geographically separated detectors ('aperture synthesis'). Adding a new detector in India, geographically well separated from the existing LIGO-Virgo detector array, will dramatically improve the source-localization accuracies (5 to 10 times), thus enabling us to use GW observations as an excellent astronomical tool.\n\nLIGO-India is set to be built [by 2025](https://www.thehindu.com/sci-tech/technology/a-new-ligo-gravitational-wave-detector-to-be-built-in-india-by-2025/article22149855.ece). That's 2 years before our question's deadline. But delays on massive science projects happen with some frequency. (Ahem, [Elon Musk](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/innovations/wp/2018/06/06/elon-musk-has-been-missing-deadlines-since-he-was-a-kid/). Ahem, [James Webb Telescope](https://www.space.com/41016-nasa-delays-james-webb-space-telescope-2021.html).)",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2018-11-08T05:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2028-01-01T05:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if LIGO-India's observatory becomes operational (defined taking test data demonstrating a sensitivity within a factor of 10 of the instrument's specified sensitivity) at any point before January 1, 2028",
            "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1536",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.28",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "17519",
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "Will the UK housing market crash before July 2025?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17519.",
            "background": "As of 19 June 2023, the [Rightmove House Price Index](https://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/house-price-index/) indicates that the average asking price for a property in the UK is \u00a3372,812.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-06-22T16:51:00+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-06-30T22:59:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if, for any month before July 2025, the [Rightmove House Price Index](https://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/house-price-index/) indicates that the National average asking price for houses is equal to or less than \u00a3260,968; a decline of 30% from June 2023 levels.",
            "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17519",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.001",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "2632",
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "Will Nigeria's population exceed 400 million before 2050?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2632.",
            "background": "The [Federal Republic of Nigeria](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nigeria) is a federal republic in West Africa, bordering Niger in the north, Chad in the northeast, Cameroon in the east, and Benin in the west.\n\nNigeria is often referred to as the \"Giant of Africa\", owing to its large population and economy. With more than [199 million](http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/nigeria-population/) inhabitants, Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa and the seventh most populous country in the world. Nigeria has the third-largest youth population in the world, after India and China, with more than 90 million of its population under age 18. As of 2017, Nigeria [had the fastest growing population of the 10 most populous countries worldwide.](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/nigeria-pass-u-s-world-s-3rd-most-populous-country-n775371)\n\nNigeria also has the [world's largest number of extremely poor people, with 87 million.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-22/six-people-fall-into-extreme-poverty-in-this-nation-every-minute?cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-tictoc&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_content=tictoc&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social) Today, Nigeria ranks 157 out of 189 countries in the [UN Human Development Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_Development_Index), which measures indicators such as health and inequality. Life expectancy is still only 54 years, although that\u2019s an improvement from 46 years in 1999. \n\nAbout 80 percent of people who earn an income are active in the informal sector or have what the UN calls \u201cvulnerable employment,\u201d work that lacks social security or guarantees any kind of rights. The number of destitute in Nigeria is believed to be growing by six people every minute, [according to a recent paper from The Brookings Institution.](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2018/06/19/the-start-of-a-new-poverty-narrative/) The UN expects Nigeria's population to more than double to 410 million by 2050, potentially swelling the ranks of the poor.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2019-02-25T00:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2050-01-01T00:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the total population of Nigeria is at least 400 million people at any point before January 1, 2050, according to the United Nations, World Health Organisation, competent statistical authorities in Nigeria or similarly credible data. The data need not be available on January 1, 2050; but it must provide population figures for that date or earlier.",
            "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2632",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.323",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "26289",
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "Five years after AGI, will an AI Windfall Clause have been activated?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26289.",
            "background": "In 2020, the Future of Humanity Institute ([RIP](https://static1.squarespace.com/static/660e95991cf0293c2463bcc8/t/661a3fc3cecceb2b8ffce80d/1712996303164/FHI+Final+Report.pdf)) published a report entitled \u201c[The Windfall Clause: Distributing the Benefits of AI for the Common Good.](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/Windfall-Clause-Report.pdf)\u201d. (They also wrote an [abridged version](https://arxiv.org/abs/1912.11595) for publishing in the [Proceedings of AIES](https://dl.acm.org/doi/abs/10.1145/3375627.3375842).) The Windfall Clause proposal expands on an idea from Nick Bostrom\u2019s _[Superintelligence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superintelligence:_Paths,_Dangers,_Strategies)_, which says that the company that develops [transformative AI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19356/transformative-ai-date/) could hugely raise the global standard of living, potentially achieving things like poverty eradication, by distributing a fraction of their profits.\n\nThere are some details still to be worked out with the proposal, but expert opinion is that these are unlikely to be blockers: what remains is for the leading AI companies to get on board.\n\n___\n\n(H/T @AABoyles for writing the \u201c[Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4061/will-any-major-ai-company-commit-to-an-ai-windfall-clause-by-2025/)\u201d question, from which this one was adapted.)",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-07-22T17:30:00+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2036-01-01T00:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, within five years of our \u201c[When will artificial general intelligence (AGI) arrive?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/)\u201d question resolving, an AI company activates a Windfall Clause. In order to count, the AI company must fit in one of these categories:\n\n* It is the leading AI company in the world, by valuation. To count, the company can be \u201cleading\u201d at any time in the five-year period. \n* It is at least 50% as large as the leading AI company at the time, by valuation. (If there is ambiguity over whether a company meets this 50% threshold, Metaculus admins will make a ruling.)\n\nThis question is conditional on humans not having gone extinct.\n\nFor the purposes of this question:\n\n* A Windfall Clause is any legally-binding agreement which caps profits resulting from a new technological innovation at any value less than 50% of [gross world product](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_world_product).\n* A company is considered to have \u201cactivated\u201d its Windfall Clause if it has distributed its profits in line with its Windfall Clause for a period of 12 months or longer, according to [credible](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) reporting. In the case that a company is above the 50% threshold at one point but then later falls below that (i.e., the company was counting for this question, and then stopped counting), this distribution of profits must start no more than 6 months after the company stopped counting. If there is ambiguity over whether either the 12-month or 6-month requirements have been met, Metaculus admins will make a ruling.\n\nAdmins will wait up to 18 months beyond the \u201cFive years after our \u2018[When will AGI arrive?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/)\u2019 question resolves\u201d date to determine this question\u2019s resolution, if needed.",
            "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26289",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.05",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "22150",
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "Will the population of the United States be higher than the People's Republic of China at any point before 2200?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22150.",
            "background": "In 2023, the population of the United States and the People's Republic of China (China) stood at 0.33 billion and 1.41 billion respectively. However, China's population [fell by roughly 2 million in 2023](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-population-drops-2nd-year-raises-long-term-growth-concerns-2024-01-17/), indicating a faster decline in population than previously projected. [New population projections](https://theconversation.com/chinas-population-is-about-to-shrink-for-the-first-time-since-the-great-famine-struck-60-years-ago-heres-what-it-means-for-the-world-176377) estimate that by 2100, China's population [could fall by as much as 70%](https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/12/05/key-facts-about-chinas-declining-population/) to less than 500 million people in the worst case scenario.\n\nComparatively massive population declines are not limited to China; South Korea has seen repeated downward adjustments to population, a recent estimate being a [70% decline by 2100](https://thediplomat.com/2022/08/south-koreas-demographic-trends-continue-to-decline/).\n\nIn contrast, the population of the U.S. has [continued to rise](https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/dec/popchange-data-text.html), though at a slower pace compared to previous decades. The official census estimates that [the U.S. population will peak at 370 million in 2080](https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2023/population-projections.html).",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-04-15T12:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2200-01-01T04:59:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if at any point before January 1, 2200, the population of the United States is greater than the population of China according to data from the World Bank.\n\nThe population figure for the United States will be resolved using the World Bank's \"Population, total\" page for the U.S., which can be accessed [here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL?contextual=default&locations=US). The population figure for China will be resolved using the World Bank's corresponding page for that country, which can be accessed [here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL?contextual=default&locations=CN).",
            "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22150",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.12",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "9042",
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "Will <40% of US tax filings be filed using paid tax preparers in 2027?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9042.",
            "background": "The US tax preparation industry is a big business, with providers of tax software making large profits, for example Intuit making [$1.6 billion](https://www.propublica.org/article/turbotax-and-others-charged-at-least-14-million-americans-for-tax-prep-that-should-have-been-free-audit-finds) from their TurboTax products in 2019. Much of this is [alleged](https://www.propublica.org/article/turbotax-and-others-charged-at-least-14-million-americans-for-tax-prep-that-should-have-been-free-audit-finds) to have come from customers who were eligible for free tax filing. Intuit has been [accused](https://www.propublica.org/article/inside-turbotax-20-year-fight-to-stop-americans-from-filing-their-taxes-for-free) of conducting a long running lobbying campaign to prevent US taxpayers from easily filing for free.\n\nThis question asks if the fraction of taxpayers using paid tax preparation services will decline significantly by the 2027 tax year.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2022-01-07T05:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2027-01-01T00:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "The IRS tracks how many filers used paid tax prep services. This was 52.9% of filers in the [2018 tax year](https://www.irs.gov/statistics/soi-tax-stats-tax-stats-at-a-glance). This question asks if this number will have declined below 40% when the numbers for the 2027 tax year are available.\n\nIf the IRS no longer publishes these numbers, this question will resolve ambiguously.",
            "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9042",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.297",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "26326",
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "Five years after AGI, will there be universal basic income?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26326.",
            "background": "> Universal basic income (UBI) is a social welfare proposal in which all citizens of a given population regularly receive a minimum income in the form of an unconditional transfer payment, i.e., without a means test or need to work.\n> [\u2014Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_basic_income)\n> ___\n> The idea of a guaranteed income for all has been floating around for centuries, its popularity ebbing and flowing with the passing tide of current events. While it is still considered by many to be a radical concept, proponents of a universal basic income (UBI) no longer see it only as a solution to poverty but as the answer to some of the biggest threats faced by modern workers: wage inequality, job insecurity \u2013 and the looming possibility of AI-induced job losses.\n> \n> Elon Musk, at the recent Bletchley Park summit, said he believed \u201cno job is needed\u201d due to the development of AI, and that a job can be for \u201cpersonal satisfaction\u201d. Economist and political theorist Karl Widerquist, professor of philosophy at Georgetown University-Qatar, sees it differently.\n> \n> \u201cEven if AI takes your job away, you don\u2019t necessarily just become unemployed for the rest of your life,\u201d he says. \u201cWhat happens is you go down in the labour market, you start crowding the lower-income professions.\u201d\n> \n> Widerquist believes, at least in the short term, that the growth of AI will push white-collar workers into the gig economy, and into other forms of poorly paid, insecure work. Such a shift in the workforce would, he fears, drive down wages and conditions, while increasing inequality.\n> \n> Why not give people who have good alternatives the opportunity to reduce work, or not work at all?\nLoek Groot, economist\nA UBI policy in response to AI and automation would address the failure of employers to distribute the spoils of economic growth \u2013 propelled, at least in part, by automation \u2013 fairly among workers, says Widerquist.\n> \n> Some go further still, pointing to UBI as a dividend due to workers for their role in the development and dissemination of knowledge used to train AI models such as ChatGPT. \u201cWhy,\u201d asks Scott Santens, editor of website Basic Income Today, \u201cshould only one or two companies get rich off of the capital, the human work, that we all created?\u201d\n> [\u2014The Guardian, 2023](https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2023/nov/16/ai-is-coming-for-our-jobs-could-universal-basic-income-be-the-solution)",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-07-22T17:30:00+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2036-01-01T00:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, within five years of our \u201c[When will artificial general intelligence (AGI) arrive?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/)\u201d question resolving, a universal basic income (UBI) of at least USD $1,000 per month is being distributed in the entirety of at least two of the three following countries: the US, the UK, China.\n\nThis question is conditional on humans not having gone extinct.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, \u201cbeing distributed\u201d means that not only has UBI been enacted\u2014i.e., signed into law\u2014in the relevant countries, but that UBI payments are being made, according to [credible reporting](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions). (If there is ambiguity over whether UBI payments are being made, Metaculus admins will make a ruling.)\n\nThe method of enactment is irrelevant so long as it applies to the entirety of the given country. There may be eligibility criteria or exceptions, such as excluding those who already have high incomes. It will be considered to apply to the entirety of the country if nearly every individual aged 21 and over with an income below 1,000 US dollars per month is able to receive 1,000 US dollars per month with no additional requirements (such as work requirements) and no expiration of the benefits.\n\nFor Yes resolution, the two countries must be simultaneously making UBI payments. In other words, if the US, say, starts distributing UBI to its citizens the year after AGI, but then stops the following year, and China starts distributing UBI to its citizens the year after that, then this does not count for Yes resolution.\n\nThe $1,000 per month UBI specified will not be adjusted for inflation, only converted to USD at the time of enactment.",
            "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26326",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.18",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "25578",
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "By 2030, will there be a synthetic protein fiber costing less than nylon?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/25578.",
            "background": "There are several sources used nowadays for spinning yarn to make clothes and other textile products.\n\nOne source is natural protein fibers such as cotton, wool and silk. Another is synthetic fibers; some of these are called semi-synthetic, as they are produced from plant-based cellulose, like wood pulp. Examples include rayon and viscose. Then there are fully synthetic fibers, usually made from fossil fuels by polymerization of certain petrochemicals, among which are nylon and polyester.\n\nOne emerging area of research is to use synthetic biology processes to produce protein fibers. Possible pathways include cultured cells, genetically-modified organisms and protein design.\n\nWe want to forecast when one such fiber will be available for cheaper than a widely-available commodity synthetic fiber, using nylon as the reference. Although polyester is the most produced fiber, we have chosen nylon because it is 30 times more expensive per unit, higher quality than polyester, and thus more vulnerable to potential economic disruption from synbio, which makes it a more achievable goal for the industry. \n\nMultiple companies are currently working on this. Lululemon for example has recently [partnered](https://www.genomatica.com/nylon/) with Genomatica to develop a plant-based nylon to replace some of the petroleum-based nylon in [some](https://www.retaildive.com/news/lululemon-geno-plant-based-nylon-shirts/648222/) of its apparel.  For more information and context please see the following report from the Boston Consulting Group: [Synthetic Biology Is About to Disrupt Your Industry](https://www.bcg.com/publications/2022/synthetic-biology-is-about-to-disrupt-your-industry)",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-07-03T12:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2029-07-01T12:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, at any point before January 1, 2030, there is a synthetic protein fiber available for open market purchase at a price cheaper than nylon.",
            "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/25578",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.02",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "21146",
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "Will a Fortune 500 Global non-tech company train a frontier AI model before 2026?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21146.",
            "background": "To date, frontier AI models have been created exclusively by tech companies. This may change if other companies decide that having an in-house model, trained on their proprietary data, will be sufficiently valuable to warrant training their own frontier model.\n\nThe number of companies producing frontier AI models is relevant for AI safety and governance because, all else equal, more actors results in more coordination difficulties. Additionally, there being more actors makes it more likely that one of the actors will be reckless.\n\n\u2014\n\nThanks to user dschartz, whose [question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17280/frontier-ai-lab-in-china/) inspired ours.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-02-15T00:16:00+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2026-01-01T00:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any time between January 1, 2024 and January 1, 2026, there is a non-tech company that trains a frontier AI model and is in the [Fortune 500 Global list](https://fortune.com/ranking/global500/) in the year the model is first publicly known to exist.\n\nWe define a \u201cnon-tech company\u201d as a company which (a) is not in the [technology](https://fortune.com/ranking/global500/search/?sector=Technology) sector according to Fortune, and also (b) is neither Amazon nor Alibaba. (These two are classed as \u201cretail\u201d companies, but for our purposes they are still tech.)\n\nWe furthermore define a \"frontier AI model\" as one that was trained with at least one-tenth as much FLOP as the largest known model at that time. For example, as of January 2024, the largest known model is Gemini Ultra, [estimated by Epoch](https://epochai.org/data/epochdb/visualization) to have trained with 9e25 FLOP. Thus by our definition, an AI model must have been trained with at least 9e24 FLOP to count as frontier, at present. This threshold will change as the largest known model changes.\n\nA model's training compute will be established by its developer's own publication or through a credible report, for example Epoch's \u201c[Parameter, Compute and Data Trends in Machine Learning](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1AAIebjNsnJj_uKALHbXNfn3_YsT6sHXtCU0q7OIPuc4/edit#gid=177804471)\u201d database (the relevant columns being \u201cPublication date\u201d and \u201cTraining compute (FLOP)\u201d).",
            "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21146",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.07",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "16469",
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "Will Meghan Markle's book be reported to have outsold Prince Harry's \"Spare\" within a year after its publication?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/16469.",
            "background": "Meghan Markle, the Duchess of Sussex, is a former actress, activist, and author who married Prince Harry in 2018. She and her husband stepped back from their roles as senior members of the British royal family in 2020 and moved to California, where they have pursued various media projects and philanthropic endeavors. Markle has written a children\u2019s book called The Bench, which was published in 2021 and became a New York Times bestseller. She has also hinted at writing another book, which some sources claim will be a memoir based on her secret diaries.\n\nPrince Harry, the Duke of Sussex, is the younger son of Prince Charles and the late Princess Diana. He served in the British Army for 10 years and founded several charitable initiatives, such as the Invictus Games and Sentebale. He also co-created Archewell, a foundation that encompasses his and his wife\u2019s media and philanthropic work. He published his memoir *Spare* in 2023, which detailed his life as a royal, his military service, his mental health struggles, his marriage to Markle, and his decision to leave the royal family. The book was a global sensation and sold over 3.2 million copies worldwide in the first week of publication, making it the fastest-selling non-fiction book of all time.\n\nBoth Markle and Harry have been the subject of intense public scrutiny and media attention, especially after their explosive interview with Oprah Winfrey in 2021, where they made several allegations against the royal family and the British press. Their popularity and controversy have fueled interest in their books, which offer their personal perspectives on their lives and experiences.\n\nThis question asks whether Markle\u2019s upcoming book will sell more copies than Harry\u2019s *Spare* in the first year of publication. It is based on the assumption that Markle will release a nonfiction, non-children\u2019s book of which she is the claimed lead author by Feburary 1, 2026.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-04-29T16:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2027-02-01T00:59:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve positively or negatively *only* if credible sources report that Meghan Markle's upcoming book has outsold, or has not sold as many, copies as Harry's *Spare*. If there is no credible-source reporting making it unambiguously clear which book has sold more copies within a year after Markle's book is released, then this question will resolve ambiguously. It will also resolve ambiguously if Markle does not release a nonfiction, non-children's book of which she is the credited lead author by Feburary 1, 2026.\n\nSales may include hardcover, paperback, ebook, and audiobook editions, as well as additional editions, as long as they are marketed primarily as instances of the same book and their overall text content is mostly substantially identical. It is not possible to specify exactly which metric will be used as reliable figures are not publicly available, however, figures **must** be worldwide in nature or at least representative of a broad worldwide sample of markets, not merely one country or (for example) a set of exclusively English-speaking countries. Metaculus admins will use their best judgment to resolve the question based on available information.",
            "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/16469",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.25",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "4849",
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "Will any science fiction literature originally written in Spanish win a major science fiction award before 2031?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4849.",
            "background": "Spanish Science Fiction has only a token presence internationally. In spite of pioneering works such as El Anacronopete, the first story involving a time machine, and prestigious authors like Miguel de Unamuno, Leopoldo Alas Clarin or Pedro Salinas writing SF stories, Spain has failed to impress the international readership with a universally embraced SF classic. Most writers and titles seem to be invisible not only to foreign readers and spectators, but also to their local peers, to the extent of being considered a \"phantom genre.\"\n\nThe Spanish-speaking public, however, enjoys science fiction like the rest of the world. Spanish literature does not lack imagination, and indeed has produced cultural phenomena such as magical realism during the Latin American Boom. Rapid technological development has made science fiction increasingly familiar, not only a resource for entertainment, but also a valuable tool in marketing or future studies. And numerous Spanish authors keep trying.\n\n(EN ESPA\u00d1OL:)\n\n***\u00bfGanar\u00e1 una obra de Ciencia Ficci\u00f3n escrita y publicada originalmente en espa\u00f1ol hasta el a\u00f1o 2029 incluido alguno de los grandes premios internaciones que acreditan a los grandes autores del g\u00e9nero?***\n\nEspa\u00f1a tiene una presencia testimonial en el panorama internacional de la ciencia ficci\u00f3n. A pesar de que haber preconizado ideas como la m\u00e1quina de tiempo (El Anacronopete) y de que autores de prestigio como Miguel de Unamuno, Leopoldo Alas Clar\u00edn o Pedro Salinas se aproximaran al g\u00e9nero, la ciencia ficci\u00f3n espa\u00f1ola no ha logrado cautivar a los lectores extranjeros con un cl\u00e1sico universalmente aceptado y la mayor\u00eda de los escritores y t\u00edtulos parecen invisibles, no solo fuera de Espa\u00f1a, sino tambi\u00e9n entre sus pares de profesi\u00f3n. Hay quien la ha llegado a describir como un \u00abg\u00e9nero fantasma\u00bb.\n\nEl p\u00fablico espa\u00f1ol disfruta, sin embargo, con la ciencia ficci\u00f3n como en el resto del mundo, y la literatura en espa\u00f1ol no solo no carece de imaginaci\u00f3n, sino que ha producido fen\u00f3menos culturales como el realismo m\u00e1gico del boom latinoamericano. El r\u00e1pido desarrollo tecnol\u00f3gico ha convertido a la ciencia ficci\u00f3n en algo cada vez m\u00e1s familiar, no solo un recurso para el entretenimiento, sino una herramienta para el marketing y el debate de ideas. Numerosos autores espa\u00f1oles lo siguen intentando.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2020-08-03T07:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2030-12-31T22:59:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "Resolution will be positive if a short story, novelette, novella or novel originally written in Spanish and published by the end of 2029, in any medium, is granted one of the following awards: Hugo, Nebula, John W. Campbell, Theodore Sturgeon or Arthur C. Clarke, before the end of the year 2030.\n\n(Note: except for the Hugo Prize, these prizes currently require a previous translation into English. The answer will be positive if and only if the work was originally written and published in Spanish).\n\n(EN ESPA\u00d1OL:)\n\n***\u00bfGanar\u00e1 una obra de Ciencia Ficci\u00f3n escrita y publicada originalmente en espa\u00f1ol hasta el a\u00f1o 2029 incluido alguno de los grandes premios internaciones que acreditan a los grandes autores del g\u00e9nero?***\n\nLa respuesta ser\u00e1 SI, si un cuento corto, novela corta (en cualquiera de sus extensiones) o novela escrita en castellano y publicada hasta el a\u00f1o 2029, en cualquier medio, recibe uno de los siguientes premios: Hugo, N\u00e9bula, John W. Campbell, Theodore Sturgeon o Arthur C. clarke, antes del cierre del a\u00f1o 2030.\n\n(Nota, en la actualidad excepto el premio Hugo al que podr\u00eda acceder directamente una obra escrita en espa\u00f1ol, el resto requieren una traducci\u00f3n previa al ingl\u00e9s. La respuesta ser\u00e1 positiva si y solo s\u00ed la obra fue escrita y publicada con anterioridad en espa\u00f1ol).",
            "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4849",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.4",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "11175",
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "Will AI be able to watch a movie and tell you accurately what is going on before 2030?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11175.",
            "background": "On May 31st, 2022, prominent deep learning skeptic and NYU professor emeritus Gary Marcus [challenged Elon Musk to a bet on AGI by the end of 2029](https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things?s=r). His proposed bet consisted of 5 AI achievements, of which he predicted no more than 2 would come to pass before 2030. This question is about Marcus' first prediction,\n\n> In 2029, AI will not be able to watch a movie and tell you accurately what is going on (what I called the [comprehension challenge in The New Yorker](https://www.newyorker.com/tech/annals-of-technology/what-comes-after-the-turing-test), in 2014). Who are the characters? What are their conflicts and motivations? etc.\n\nFor this challenge, we will use the [MovieQA dataset](https://arxiv.org/abs/1512.02902) as an illustrative example of a benchmark that could trigger positive resolution,\n\n> The dataset consists of 14,944 questions about 408 movies with high semantic diversity. The questions range from simpler \"Who\" did \"What\" to \"Whom\", to \"Why\" and \"How\" certain events occurred. Each question comes with a set of five possible answers; a correct one and four deceiving answers provided by human annotators.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2022-06-05T07:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2030-01-01T08:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if, before January 1st 2030, a computer program is publicly and credibly documented to have achieved at least 90.0% accuracy or above the human baseline on a benchmark comparable to the [MovieQA dataset](https://arxiv.org/abs/1512.02902), when restricted to only watching the movies tested (rather than reading plots, subtitles, scripts, or human-provided transcriptions for the movies). Any candidate benchmark must provide difficult questions that test deep comprehension, including questions of how and why, rather than mere shallow pattern matching.\n\nImportantly, this means that any candidate computer program must _not_ have been given access to media that could have reasonably been expected to spoil the plot to any of these movies during its training (for example, the Wikipedia pages for these movies). The AI is allowed to be trained on other media, such as Project Gutenberg books. This restriction is merely intended to eliminate cheating, not to require any additional capabilities beyond what Gary Marcus specified.\n\nA simple way to prove that a candidate computer program did not cheat is by showing that all the data the AI was trained on was generated prior to when the movies were released. However, this is not the only way of proving that cheating did not occur.\n\nMetaculus admins will use their discretion in determining whether a candidate computer program met these criteria. This question will be **annulled** in the event that, in the judgment of Metaculus, comparable tests have not been conducted on potentially qualifying AI systems during the specified timeframe.",
            "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11175",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.99",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "13924",
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "Will at least 200 Benin Bronzes go from the British Museum to Nigeria before 2030?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13924.",
            "background": "Benin, in present-day Nigeria, was a powerful and wealthy state that had trade relations with the Portuguese since the 15th century. Benin traded ivory, gum, pepper, and cotton cloth for the Portuguese copper, brass, and other metals. In the 17th century, Benin's Oba (king) began raiding and trading for slaves from neighboring kingdoms. Benin became one of the major hubs of the slave trade in West Africa, along with Dahomey and Oyo.\n\nAfter the slave trade was abolished by Britain in 1807, Benin faced several challenges and changes. The British navy tried to suppress the illegal slave trade by patrolling the coast and intercepting slave ships. This disrupted Benin's economy and trade relations with other African states and Europe. Benin also had to deal with internal conflicts and rebellions from some of its vassal states that wanted more autonomy or independence. Benin tried to resist British colonialism by maintaining its sovereignty and culture, but it was eventually defeated by a British punitive expedition in 1897 that sacked and burned the city, looted its treasures and artworks, and deposed its Oba. Benin became part of the British protectorate of Nigeria until it gained its independence in 1960.\n\nThe Benin Bronzes were a collection of brass plaques, sculptures, and other objects looted from Benin. The bronzes are notable for their intricate and detailed designs, which often depict historical events, royal figures, and other aspects of Benin culture and history. The collection is considered to be one of the greatest examples of African art and craftsmanship, and it is highly valued by museums and collectors around the world.\n\n[According to Richard Assheton](https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/why-returning-the-benin-bronzes-is-so-complicated-j2m8ffz23),\n\n> Colonial powers initially refused to believe an African civilisation had produced these stunning works. Today, more than 900 lie in the British Museum, and others in museums and private collections all over the world.\n\n> ...\n\n> The British Museum ... has refused [to transfer away ownership of any of the bronzes], saying it is bound by law not to give away its collections.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-05-30T02:17:00+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2030-01-01T04:59:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "Resolves as **Yes** if at least 200 Benin bronzes that were formerly owned by the British Museum physically return to Nigeria before 2030.",
            "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13924",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.36",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "16011",
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "Will a Star Trek and Star Wars crossover movie or TV show be made before 2060?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/16011.",
            "background": "[Comparison of Star Trek and Star Wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparison_of_Star_Trek_and_Star_Wars) is one of the largest topics of conversation among the science fiction fan base. Which of the two franchises is better is frequently debated among fans, and the two have a fair degree of influence on each other. The idea of a crossover film or TV program between the two franchises has been proposed since the first Star Wars film was released in 1977. Despite this, no such media has ever been produced.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-04-22T13:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2060-01-01T04:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if a feature-length film or TV/streaming series is released before January 1, 2060, in which established characters of the Star Wars and Star Trek franchises interact. If such media also includes newly-created characters and/or characters from other franchises, this question will still resolve as **Yes** if the interaction between established Star Wars and Star Trek characters plays a role in driving the plot, according to the discretion of Metaculus admins. If this does not occur before the resolution date, this question resolves as **No**.",
            "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/16011",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.25",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "3812",
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "Will Valve release a game before 2030 with 3 in the Title?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3812.",
            "background": "The video game company valve has multiple franchises all ending with their number 2 game and it is well known joke in the gaming community that valve will never create a game with the number 3 in the title.\n\nFranchises that already are at the number 2: \"Half Life 2\", \"Portal 2\",\n\"Left 4 Dead 2\", \"Team Fortress 2\" and \"Dota 2\".",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2020-04-14T22:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2029-12-31T10:59:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positive if Valve releases before 2030-01-01 a game made by Valve that has \"3\" (or anything else that means 3) in its title. It resolves negative otherwise, including if Valve ceases operating.",
            "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3812",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.4",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "3244",
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "Will Robert Caro's fifth and final volume of his Lyndon Johnson biography be published during his lifetime?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3244.",
            "background": "American journalist and author [Robert A. Caro](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Caro) (born October 30, 1935) has for the last decades been working on _The Years of Lyndon Johnson_, a multi-volume biography of the former US President. The work is planned to consist of five volumes, the first four of which were published in 1982, 1990, 2002, 2012, respectively.\n\n[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Years_of_Lyndon_Johnson#Planned_book_five) summarizes the publication estimates given at various points since 2011:\n\n>In November 2011, Caro estimated that the fifth and final volume would require another two to three years to write. In March 2013, he affirmed a commitment to completing the series with a fifth volume. As of April 2014, he was continuing to research the book. In a televised interview with C-SPAN in May 2017, Caro confirmed over 400 typed pages as being complete, covering the period 1964\u201365; and that once he completes the section on Johnson's 1965 legislative achievements, he intends to move to Vietnam to continue the writing process.\n\n>In an interview with The New York Review of Books in January 2018, Caro said that he was writing about 1965 and 1966 and a non-chronological section about the relationship between Johnson and Bobby Kennedy. Asked if he still planned to visit Vietnam soon, Caro replied: \"Not yet, no. This is a very long book. And there's a lot to do before that's necessary. I'm getting close to it now.\" In December 2018, it was reported that Caro is still \"several years from finishing\" the volume.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2019-10-25T23:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2030-01-01T03:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Caro's fifth and final volume of _The Years of Lyndon Johnson_ becomes available for order (_not_ pre-order) on amazon.com while Caro is still alive.\n\nIf the fifth book is not intended to be the last, this question will resolve as **No** if the book intended to be the last one is not published during Caro's lifetime.  If it's unclear whether the fifth book is intended to be the last one, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous.*",
            "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3244",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.48",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "8403",
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "By 2050, will at least 25% of Year-End Billboard Hot 100 songs be primarily composed by AI?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8403.",
            "background": "Artificial intelligence has made significant advances with the recent development of language models such as GPT-3. It is widely expected that artificial intelligence will become significantly more capable in the future, and some believe that artificial intelligence may someday surpass human ability in certain areas, or even in general intelligence.\n\nNeuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about the capabilities of AI in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the):\n\n>The worst hit will be artists like writers, painters, poets, and musicians, who will have to deal with a total saturation of artistic content by AI.  By 2050 much of the words you read and content you consume will be generated by an AI [...]",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2022-01-19T21:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2050-01-01T20:16:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if, for any year between 2021 to 2049 (inclusive), 25 or more of the [Year-End Billboard Hot 100 Songs](https://www.billboard.com/charts/year-end/hot-100-songs) are created primarily by AI. \"Created Primarily by AI\" for the purpose of this question will mean having significant influence on the song's melody, harmony, rhythm, instrumental timbre and tone, and EQ mixing.  Evidence for an AI's involvement can be provided by the song credits, statements by producers or publishers, and/or reputable media reports. If the Year-End Billboard Hot 100 Songs list does not exist through 2049, Metaculus Admins may select and announce a replacement source, or resolve ambiguously at their discretion",
            "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8403",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.65",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "19408",
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "Will Cooper Flagg make the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame before 2060?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19408.",
            "background": "According to [ESPN](https://www.espn.com/college-sports/basketball/recruiting/player/_/id/250591/cooper-flagg) and [247Sports](https://247sports.com/Player/Cooper-Flagg-46129443/), Cooper Flagg is the highest ranked basketball recruit in the United States. [He was the youngest player to ever win the USA Basketball Male Athlete of the Year in 2022.](https://www.si.com/college/duke/recruiting/duke-basketball-recruiting-target-national-honor) [Fansided](https://hoopshabit.com/2023/09/03/meet-cooper-flagg-best-american-prospect/) even made the bold claim that Flagg is the best American recruit since LeBron James, and [the King himself is known to be following Flagg's career.](https://www.nbcboston.com/news/sports/nba/who-is-cooper-flagg-meet-the-next-great-nba-draft-prospect/3087165/)\n\nHowever, [others are skeptical](https://youtu.be/nAyv_M_t9og) of putting much stock into high school players. There have been many players hyped up in high school that failed to even become NBA All-Stars such as OJ Mayo, Greg Oden and Kwame Brown.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-12-17T00:55:00+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2060-01-01T17:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame announces Cooper Flagg's induction before January 1, 2060. Otherwise, it will resolve as No.",
            "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19408",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.26",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "8805",
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "Will the New York Yankees win the World Series in 2032 in exactly 6 games?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8805.",
            "background": "In Star Trek: Voyager, Season 6 Episode 8 (One Small Step) - originally airing November 17, 1999, it is stated that the New York Yankees [win the World Series](https://memory-alpha.fandom.com/wiki/World_Series) that occurs in 2032 in 6 games.\n\nThe Yankees most recent World Series Championship was in [2009](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_World_Series), where they defeated the Philadelphia Phillies in 6 games.\n\nAre we on a road to a Star Trek Future?",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2021-12-11T06:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2032-09-01T03:59:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "The question resolves positively if the MLB annual championship that occurs in the year 2032 is won by a team named \"New York Yankees\" in exactly 6 games (e.g. the Yankees win 4 games, and their opponent wins 2).\n\n- If a team that was formerly named \"New York Yankees\" wins in 6 games, this question resolves negatively\n\n- If a team with a name that still refers New York city or state wins in 6 games (e.g. Brooklyn Yankees, New York State Yankees), this question resolves positively.\n\n- If the MLB changes its rules such that the World Series is played for fewer than 6 games, or more than 13 games (so it would be impossible to win in 6 games), this question resolves negatively.\n\n- If the MLB folds into smaller leagues prior to the 2032 World Series, this question resolves negatively.\n\n- If the MLB folds into a larger league prior to the 2032 World Series (such as a [Planetary Baseball League](https://memory-alpha.fandom.com/wiki/Planetary_Baseball_League)), and a team named \"New York Yankees\" still exists, if that team wins the World Series of the larger league in 6 games, this question resolves positively",
            "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8805",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.028",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "7072",
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "Will there be an breakaway European Soccer League match before 2030?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7072.",
            "background": "",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2021-04-26T07:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2030-01-01T00:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "On April 18, 2021, 12 top European football clubs agreed to join the [European Super League](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Super_League), a breakaway league separate from the usual organizational structure of association football. \n\nIt received a great deal of backlash from stakeholders:\n\n* [Gary Neville is disgusted](https://twitter.com/SkySportsPL/status/1383927715607154691)\n* [Gary Linekar is disgusted](https://www.bbc.com/sport/av/football/56807114)\n* [Boris Johnson promises \"to make sure the goverment does everything it can to make sure it doesn't go ahead\"](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-european-super-league-b1833689.html)\n\nOn the other hand, publicly traded football clubs ([Manchester United](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/MANU/chart?p=MANU), [Juventus](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/JUVE.MI/chart?p=JUVE.MI)) have seen their share prices soar as this is generally forecasted as being extremely lucrative for the clubs involved.\n\nWhilst it appears that the ESL is dead in the water, the clubs involved have all pulled back, there is still a lot of speculation as to whether a breakaway league will still happen given the financial incentives.\n\n***Will there be an breakaway European soccer League match before 2030?***\n\nAny association football matches played under the structure of a breakaway group unrelated to the usual structure of football in Europe, which features at least 5 of the following big clubs, and teams from at least 3 UEFA countries (not all countries need to be from this list, 5 teams from this list from 2 countries and an additional team from a 3rd country would be acceptable):\n\n* Arsenal FC\n* Chelsea FC\n* Liverpool FC\n* Manchester City FC\n* Manchester United FC\n* Tottenham Hotspur FC\n* Inter Milan\n* Juventus FC\n* AC Milan\n* Atl\u00e9tico Madrid\n* FC Barcelona\n* Real Madrid CF\n* Bayern Munich\n* Borussia Dortmund\n* Bayer Leverkusen\n* Schalke 04\n* PSG\n* Lyon\n* Ajax",
            "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7072",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.17",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "19918",
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "Will Andy Carlile's 7:10 BTG N\u00fcrburgring Nordschleife motorcycle laptime be beaten before 2030?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19918.",
            "background": "[Video of 7:10 lap](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=inc9cGasgsA)\n\nThe N\u00fcrburgring Nordschleife is a historic racing track in Germany, famous for its length (19.1 km in BTG configuration) and difficulty. The track features over 150 corners, 1000 feet of elevation change, and few modern safety features, such as runoff area. It is well known among motorsports enthusiasts and is used by automakers for testing. For part of the year the track is open to road legal vehicles driven by the general public--so-called \"Touristenfahren.\" Andy Carlile (sometimes spelled Carlisle) is known for setting the fastest motorcycle lap time on this track in BTG configuration in 2012, clocking in at 7:10 on a road-legal Yamaha YZF-R1. This record has stood for over 11 years as of early 2024. BTG is short for bridge-to-gantry, the partial track configuration used during Touristenfahren, which omits part of the main straight.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-04-14T12:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2029-12-31T06:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** upon credible video evidence showing a lap time of under 7 minutes and 10 seconds on a motorcycle at the Nordschleife BTG (Bridge to Gantry), specifically during a Touristenfahren session. The lap time must be clearly displayed as less than 7:10, meaning rounding is not considered.\n\nIf this event does not happen before 2030, this question resolves as **No**.\n\nAny modifications to the track are allowed as long as the Nordschleife, Touristenfahren, and a layout considered to be BTG still exist.\n\nThis question does not resolve as ambiguous under any circumstances, including motorcycles being banned from the the track, the track permanently closing or the BTG layout no longer existing. If those or similar circumstances preclude any possibility of a  <7:10 lap time before 2030, the question will resolve as **No** on the resolution date.",
            "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19918",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.247",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "15226",
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "Will there be a driver fatality in the NASCAR Cup Series before 2050?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15226.",
            "background": "Since the [tragic passing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_of_Dale_Earnhardt) of NASCAR legend Dale Earnhardt Sr on the last lap of the 2001 Daytona 500, there have been no driver fatalities in any of NASCAR's three highest series. [Five more](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_NASCAR_fatalities) drivers perished in lower-leveled series between 2001 and 2009, but none have since. This is [likely due](https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2712394-7-changes-nascar-has-made-to-make-the-sport-safer) to the increased emphasis NASCAR has placed on driver safety by modifying the cars and rules of the sport.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-03-23T17:13:00+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2050-01-01T05:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if at any point from March 23, 2023 to December 31, 2049 a driver running part or full-time in the NASCAR Cup Series dies while performing driver duties in a NASCAR Cup Series sanctioned event. Resolution will be determined by an official statement from NASCAR confirming the driver fatality during a sanctioned event.",
            "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15226",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.505",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "17325",
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "Will Major League Baseball (MLB) expand by 2030?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17325.",
            "background": "Major League Baseball, a North American sports league, is a business worth almost [$11bn annually](https://www.forbes.com/sites/maurybrown/2023/01/10/mlb-sets-new-revenue-record-exceeding-108-billion-for-2022/). The top league of the sport known as 'America's pastime', it is one of the world's most watched sports leagues, with the 2022 World Series attracting over [11.5 million viewers](https://www.sportsmediawatch.com/2022/10/world-series-ratings-game-1-phillies-astros-viewership-fox/) per game. \n\nMLB is a 'closed league' - meaning that the number and location of teams is determined by the existing owners of the league's franchises. On occasion, MLB 'expands', meaning that the existing owners agree to add additional teams into the league, historically in exchange for a large monetary sum. This has substantial financial and cultural consequences, with vast sums of money transferred between billionaires and the citizens of new cities having the chance to root for a hometown baseball team (often in exchange for their taxpayer dollars - teams tend to be wooed to a city by the local government offering public funding for stadiums and other infrastructure).\n\nThe number of teams in MLB is currently 30. This question asks whether the number of teams playing in the league will increase as a result of expansion by 2030.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-06-09T17:53:00+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2030-04-01T04:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "The question resolves **Yes** if a Major League Baseball team, enfranchised during an expansion process (i.e. a totally new franchise as recognized by Major League Baseball, not an existing franchise that has moved the location of its home stadium) plays in a regular season game before or during the 2030 regular season.",
            "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17325",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.39",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "19397",
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "Will Derrick Rose make the Hall of Fame?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19397.",
            "background": "[As of 10/14/23, every player who has been selected NBA MVP has eventually been elected to the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Most_Valuable_Player_Award). [It is considered very likely that LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry, Russell Westbrook, James Harden, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid will all make the Hall of Fame.](https://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/hof_prob.html) However, Derrick Rose, the 2010-2011 MVP, is only assigned a 10% chance according to Basketball Reference.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-11-23T19:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2044-12-31T17:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve Yes if the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame announces, before January 1, 2040, that Derrick Rose has been selected for admission. If he is not, this question resolves negatively.",
            "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19397",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.18",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "15370",
                "7591"
            ],
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "15370",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will the United States score in the bottom 50% for academic freedom in 2025 (according to the AFI)?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15370.",
                    "background": "The [Academic Freedom Index (AFI)](https://academic-freedom-index.net/) is a comprehensive and widely recognized tool for assessing de facto levels of academic freedom across the world. The AFI evaluates five key indicators of academic freedom, including the freedom to research and teach, freedom of academic exchange and dissemination, institutional autonomy, campus integrity, and freedom of academic and cultural expression. The index currently covers 179 countries and territories, and is considered the most comprehensive dataset available on the subject of academic freedom. The index employs a methodology that includes assessments by 2,197 country experts, standardized questionnaires, and a well-established statistical model, implemented and adapted by the [V-Dem project](https://v-dem.net/). The 2023 report (of the period up to December 2022) places the United States of the America in the Top 40-50% bracket (pg. 2-3) and outlines the following threats to academic freedom: \n\n> China, India, the United States of America and Mexico are among the most populous countries where academic freedom has significantly fallen back over the past decade. These developments have occurred in different political settings and do not all follow the same pattern.\n\n> The United States of America presents a different picture. **After a long period of relatively high academic freedom levels, four out of five indicators visibly declined in 2021** \u2013 the year after President Donald Trump, who repeatedly made statements highly critical of science and academia, was voted out of office. Although some federal actions detrimental to academic freedom were taken during his administration, educational matters in the USA are largely regulated by individual states, which have increasingly used their authority to interfere in academic affairs since 2021. At least nine states, all Republican-led, have adopted bills that ban the teaching of concepts related to \u201ccritical race theory\u201d in higher education institutions. Several states are also targeting tenure in public universities, adding to the already precarious status of academic employment. Some states now also allow students to record class lectures without the professor\u2019s consent. Furthermore, influential conservative groups are lobbying state legislatures to withdraw funding from scientific fields such as gender, minority studies, and environmental science, and various groups are maintaining public \u201cwatchlists\u201d of professors perceived as radical leftists. Despite efforts to polarize and intimidate, AFI data on academics\u2019 freedom of expression indicates that scholars in the USA remain able to publically voice their expertise, even on politically salient issues.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-03-06T21:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-12-31T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as a **Yes** if the United States of America is ranked in the bottom 50% for academic freedom in 2025, which includes the following brackets: Bottom 10%, Bottom 10-20%, Bottom 20-30%, Bottom 30-40%, and Bottom 40-50%, according to the [Academic Freedom Index.](https://academic-freedom-index.net/)\n\nThis question will resolve as a **No** if the United States of America is ranked in the top 40-50% or higher on the Academic Freedom Index for the year 2025.\n\nThis question will resolve as ambiguous if the Academic Freedom Index is no longer published, if the AFI does not report data for the year 2025 (but does report data for 2026 or later), or if the AFI does not report the 2025 data by December 31, 2028.",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15370",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.5",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "7591",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will 3 mainstream American news outlets report that a rebel group perpetrated the 2013 Ghouta Chemical Attack before August 21, 2033?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7591.",
                    "background": "[The 2013 Ghouta chemical attack](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghouta_chemical_attack) during the [Syrian Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syrian_civil_war) was the deadliest use of chemical weapons since the Iran-Iraq war.  Intelligence agencies of Israel, the UK, the US, France, Turkey, and Germany concluded that the Syrian government of President Bashar al-Assad was most likely responsible for the attacks.  Russia by contrast blamed an opposition group.\n\nThe fact-checking website [Rootclaim's](https://www.rootclaim.com/analysis/Who-carried-out-the-chemical-attack-in-Ghouta-on-August-21-2013) analysis concluded there was a 96% probability the rebel group Liwa al-Islam perpetrated the attack, and Rootclaim [offered](https://blog.rootclaim.com/100000-syria-debate-challenge/) a [100,000 dollar challenge](https://www.rootclaim.com/rootclaim_challenge) on this topic.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2021-08-17T04:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2033-08-21T04:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, on or before August 21, 2033 (20 years after the Ghouta chemical attack), three major mainstream American news outlets run an article suggesting that the Syrian government may not have carried out the Ghouta chemical attack, and at least one author of each of the articles believes that there is a more than 50% probability that the Syrian government did not carry out the attack.  Otherwise this question will resolve as **No**.",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7591",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.45",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "17325",
                "19397"
            ],
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "17325",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will Major League Baseball (MLB) expand by 2030?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17325.",
                    "background": "Major League Baseball, a North American sports league, is a business worth almost [$11bn annually](https://www.forbes.com/sites/maurybrown/2023/01/10/mlb-sets-new-revenue-record-exceeding-108-billion-for-2022/). The top league of the sport known as 'America's pastime', it is one of the world's most watched sports leagues, with the 2022 World Series attracting over [11.5 million viewers](https://www.sportsmediawatch.com/2022/10/world-series-ratings-game-1-phillies-astros-viewership-fox/) per game. \n\nMLB is a 'closed league' - meaning that the number and location of teams is determined by the existing owners of the league's franchises. On occasion, MLB 'expands', meaning that the existing owners agree to add additional teams into the league, historically in exchange for a large monetary sum. This has substantial financial and cultural consequences, with vast sums of money transferred between billionaires and the citizens of new cities having the chance to root for a hometown baseball team (often in exchange for their taxpayer dollars - teams tend to be wooed to a city by the local government offering public funding for stadiums and other infrastructure).\n\nThe number of teams in MLB is currently 30. This question asks whether the number of teams playing in the league will increase as a result of expansion by 2030.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-06-09T17:53:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2030-04-01T04:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "The question resolves **Yes** if a Major League Baseball team, enfranchised during an expansion process (i.e. a totally new franchise as recognized by Major League Baseball, not an existing franchise that has moved the location of its home stadium) plays in a regular season game before or during the 2030 regular season.",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17325",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.39",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "19397",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will Derrick Rose make the Hall of Fame?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19397.",
                    "background": "[As of 10/14/23, every player who has been selected NBA MVP has eventually been elected to the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Most_Valuable_Player_Award). [It is considered very likely that LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry, Russell Westbrook, James Harden, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid will all make the Hall of Fame.](https://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/hof_prob.html) However, Derrick Rose, the 2010-2011 MVP, is only assigned a 10% chance according to Basketball Reference.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-11-23T19:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2044-12-31T17:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve Yes if the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame announces, before January 1, 2040, that Derrick Rose has been selected for admission. If he is not, this question resolves negatively.",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19397",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.18",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "26289",
                "22150"
            ],
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "26289",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Five years after AGI, will an AI Windfall Clause have been activated?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26289.",
                    "background": "In 2020, the Future of Humanity Institute ([RIP](https://static1.squarespace.com/static/660e95991cf0293c2463bcc8/t/661a3fc3cecceb2b8ffce80d/1712996303164/FHI+Final+Report.pdf)) published a report entitled \u201c[The Windfall Clause: Distributing the Benefits of AI for the Common Good.](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/Windfall-Clause-Report.pdf)\u201d. (They also wrote an [abridged version](https://arxiv.org/abs/1912.11595) for publishing in the [Proceedings of AIES](https://dl.acm.org/doi/abs/10.1145/3375627.3375842).) The Windfall Clause proposal expands on an idea from Nick Bostrom\u2019s _[Superintelligence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superintelligence:_Paths,_Dangers,_Strategies)_, which says that the company that develops [transformative AI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19356/transformative-ai-date/) could hugely raise the global standard of living, potentially achieving things like poverty eradication, by distributing a fraction of their profits.\n\nThere are some details still to be worked out with the proposal, but expert opinion is that these are unlikely to be blockers: what remains is for the leading AI companies to get on board.\n\n___\n\n(H/T @AABoyles for writing the \u201c[Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4061/will-any-major-ai-company-commit-to-an-ai-windfall-clause-by-2025/)\u201d question, from which this one was adapted.)",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-07-22T17:30:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2036-01-01T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, within five years of our \u201c[When will artificial general intelligence (AGI) arrive?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/)\u201d question resolving, an AI company activates a Windfall Clause. In order to count, the AI company must fit in one of these categories:\n\n* It is the leading AI company in the world, by valuation. To count, the company can be \u201cleading\u201d at any time in the five-year period. \n* It is at least 50% as large as the leading AI company at the time, by valuation. (If there is ambiguity over whether a company meets this 50% threshold, Metaculus admins will make a ruling.)\n\nThis question is conditional on humans not having gone extinct.\n\nFor the purposes of this question:\n\n* A Windfall Clause is any legally-binding agreement which caps profits resulting from a new technological innovation at any value less than 50% of [gross world product](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_world_product).\n* A company is considered to have \u201cactivated\u201d its Windfall Clause if it has distributed its profits in line with its Windfall Clause for a period of 12 months or longer, according to [credible](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) reporting. In the case that a company is above the 50% threshold at one point but then later falls below that (i.e., the company was counting for this question, and then stopped counting), this distribution of profits must start no more than 6 months after the company stopped counting. If there is ambiguity over whether either the 12-month or 6-month requirements have been met, Metaculus admins will make a ruling.\n\nAdmins will wait up to 18 months beyond the \u201cFive years after our \u2018[When will AGI arrive?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/)\u2019 question resolves\u201d date to determine this question\u2019s resolution, if needed.",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26289",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.05",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "22150",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will the population of the United States be higher than the People's Republic of China at any point before 2200?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22150.",
                    "background": "In 2023, the population of the United States and the People's Republic of China (China) stood at 0.33 billion and 1.41 billion respectively. However, China's population [fell by roughly 2 million in 2023](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-population-drops-2nd-year-raises-long-term-growth-concerns-2024-01-17/), indicating a faster decline in population than previously projected. [New population projections](https://theconversation.com/chinas-population-is-about-to-shrink-for-the-first-time-since-the-great-famine-struck-60-years-ago-heres-what-it-means-for-the-world-176377) estimate that by 2100, China's population [could fall by as much as 70%](https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/12/05/key-facts-about-chinas-declining-population/) to less than 500 million people in the worst case scenario.\n\nComparatively massive population declines are not limited to China; South Korea has seen repeated downward adjustments to population, a recent estimate being a [70% decline by 2100](https://thediplomat.com/2022/08/south-koreas-demographic-trends-continue-to-decline/).\n\nIn contrast, the population of the U.S. has [continued to rise](https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/dec/popchange-data-text.html), though at a slower pace compared to previous decades. The official census estimates that [the U.S. population will peak at 370 million in 2080](https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2023/population-projections.html).",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-04-15T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2200-01-01T04:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if at any point before January 1, 2200, the population of the United States is greater than the population of China according to data from the World Bank.\n\nThe population figure for the United States will be resolved using the World Bank's \"Population, total\" page for the U.S., which can be accessed [here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL?contextual=default&locations=US). The population figure for China will be resolved using the World Bank's corresponding page for that country, which can be accessed [here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL?contextual=default&locations=CN).",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22150",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.12",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "17519",
                "2632"
            ],
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "17519",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will the UK housing market crash before July 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17519.",
                    "background": "As of 19 June 2023, the [Rightmove House Price Index](https://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/house-price-index/) indicates that the average asking price for a property in the UK is \u00a3372,812.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-06-22T16:51:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-06-30T22:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if, for any month before July 2025, the [Rightmove House Price Index](https://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/house-price-index/) indicates that the National average asking price for houses is equal to or less than \u00a3260,968; a decline of 30% from June 2023 levels.",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17519",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.001",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "2632",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will Nigeria's population exceed 400 million before 2050?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2632.",
                    "background": "The [Federal Republic of Nigeria](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nigeria) is a federal republic in West Africa, bordering Niger in the north, Chad in the northeast, Cameroon in the east, and Benin in the west.\n\nNigeria is often referred to as the \"Giant of Africa\", owing to its large population and economy. With more than [199 million](http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/nigeria-population/) inhabitants, Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa and the seventh most populous country in the world. Nigeria has the third-largest youth population in the world, after India and China, with more than 90 million of its population under age 18. As of 2017, Nigeria [had the fastest growing population of the 10 most populous countries worldwide.](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/nigeria-pass-u-s-world-s-3rd-most-populous-country-n775371)\n\nNigeria also has the [world's largest number of extremely poor people, with 87 million.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-22/six-people-fall-into-extreme-poverty-in-this-nation-every-minute?cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-tictoc&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_content=tictoc&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social) Today, Nigeria ranks 157 out of 189 countries in the [UN Human Development Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_Development_Index), which measures indicators such as health and inequality. Life expectancy is still only 54 years, although that\u2019s an improvement from 46 years in 1999. \n\nAbout 80 percent of people who earn an income are active in the informal sector or have what the UN calls \u201cvulnerable employment,\u201d work that lacks social security or guarantees any kind of rights. The number of destitute in Nigeria is believed to be growing by six people every minute, [according to a recent paper from The Brookings Institution.](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2018/06/19/the-start-of-a-new-poverty-narrative/) The UN expects Nigeria's population to more than double to 410 million by 2050, potentially swelling the ranks of the poor.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2019-02-25T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2050-01-01T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the total population of Nigeria is at least 400 million people at any point before January 1, 2050, according to the United Nations, World Health Organisation, competent statistical authorities in Nigeria or similarly credible data. The data need not be available on January 1, 2050; but it must provide population figures for that date or earlier.",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2632",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.323",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "7335",
                "24819"
            ],
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "7335",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will Freedom House report that internet freedom has declined every year until 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7335.",
                    "background": "The Freedom on the Net [report](https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-net/2020/pandemics-digital-shadow) is an annual report on internet freedom worldwide, produced by Freedom House. It tracks changes in internet regulation across 65 countries. As of the 2020 edition, it claimed that freedom had been on the decline (operationalised as more countries' scores decreasing than increasing) for ten years in a row, with 26 countries' scores worsening and 22 improving in 2020. This question asks if this pattern of decline will persist for the next five years.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2021-06-20T07:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-06-30T23:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if for each year until 2025, inclusive, Freedom House reports more countries with a decrease in their internet freedom scores than with an increase",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7335",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.9",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "24819",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will the USMCA be extended promptly at its July 2026 joint review?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/24819.",
                    "background": "The [United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF10997) (USMCA) is a trade deal between the United States, Mexico, and Canada that replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Signed on November 30, 2018, and implemented on July 1, 2020, the USMCA aimed to modernize trade relations and address issues that had emerged since NAFTA's implementation in 1994.\r\n\r\nThe USMCA [will undergo a review period](https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/agreements/FTA/USMCA/Text/34_Final_Provisions.pdf) on its sixth anniversary, where it will be extended for another 16 years if all parties agree to extend it. If the parties do not agree to extend the USMCA, it will trigger an annual review process held each year until the deal expires in 2036 unless an extension is agreed to at one of the annual reviews. The Trump administration [pushed for the review process](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/usmca-review-upcoming-elections-and-a-path-forward/) and some observers expect that if Trump is president during the review he will push for significant changes. [Biden has also taken a protective stance on trade](https://www.thedialogue.org/analysis/will-the-usmca-accord-survive-an-upcoming-review/) and may push for changes more favorable to key US industries. It is possible that a contentious review process could lead to one or more parties withholding consent for an extension.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-06-02T13:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2026-07-01T22:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, following the joint review of the USMCA held in July 2026, the USMCA is extended for another 16-year period. The question will resolve as **No** if the joint review ends without extension, triggering the annual review process described in paragraph 4 of [Article 34.7 of the USMCA](https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/agreements/FTA/USMCA/Text/34_Final_Provisions.pdf).",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/24819",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.2",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "8556",
                "15370"
            ],
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "8556",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will over half of the US Senate be women in 2050?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8556.",
                    "background": "Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel predicted the following about women in the US in the year 2050 in a [blog post](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the) published August 25, 2021:\n\n>By 2050 there will be near-domination of society and the economy by women. [...] Just as the invention of the teenager as a consumer category reshaped popular culture, the ever increasing rise of independent women with disposable income will reshape society, from what entertainment is produced to who is an **elected official.**\n\nAccording to the [Pew Research Center, describing the 117th Congress](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2021/01/15/a-record-number-of-women-are-serving-in-the-117th-congress/)\n\n>In the Senate, women hold 24 of 100 seats, one fewer than the record number of seats they held in the last Congress.\n\nHattie Caraway became the [first woman elected to the US Senate](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Women_in_the_United_States_Senate) in 1931, though women remained under 10% of the senate membership until 2001.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2022-01-19T21:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2049-12-31T19:42:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if, on January 1, 2050, more than half of US Senators publicly identify as women",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8556",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.21",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "15370",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will the United States score in the bottom 50% for academic freedom in 2025 (according to the AFI)?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15370.",
                    "background": "The [Academic Freedom Index (AFI)](https://academic-freedom-index.net/) is a comprehensive and widely recognized tool for assessing de facto levels of academic freedom across the world. The AFI evaluates five key indicators of academic freedom, including the freedom to research and teach, freedom of academic exchange and dissemination, institutional autonomy, campus integrity, and freedom of academic and cultural expression. The index currently covers 179 countries and territories, and is considered the most comprehensive dataset available on the subject of academic freedom. The index employs a methodology that includes assessments by 2,197 country experts, standardized questionnaires, and a well-established statistical model, implemented and adapted by the [V-Dem project](https://v-dem.net/). The 2023 report (of the period up to December 2022) places the United States of the America in the Top 40-50% bracket (pg. 2-3) and outlines the following threats to academic freedom: \n\n> China, India, the United States of America and Mexico are among the most populous countries where academic freedom has significantly fallen back over the past decade. These developments have occurred in different political settings and do not all follow the same pattern.\n\n> The United States of America presents a different picture. **After a long period of relatively high academic freedom levels, four out of five indicators visibly declined in 2021** \u2013 the year after President Donald Trump, who repeatedly made statements highly critical of science and academia, was voted out of office. Although some federal actions detrimental to academic freedom were taken during his administration, educational matters in the USA are largely regulated by individual states, which have increasingly used their authority to interfere in academic affairs since 2021. At least nine states, all Republican-led, have adopted bills that ban the teaching of concepts related to \u201ccritical race theory\u201d in higher education institutions. Several states are also targeting tenure in public universities, adding to the already precarious status of academic employment. Some states now also allow students to record class lectures without the professor\u2019s consent. Furthermore, influential conservative groups are lobbying state legislatures to withdraw funding from scientific fields such as gender, minority studies, and environmental science, and various groups are maintaining public \u201cwatchlists\u201d of professors perceived as radical leftists. Despite efforts to polarize and intimidate, AFI data on academics\u2019 freedom of expression indicates that scholars in the USA remain able to publically voice their expertise, even on politically salient issues.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-03-06T21:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-12-31T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as a **Yes** if the United States of America is ranked in the bottom 50% for academic freedom in 2025, which includes the following brackets: Bottom 10%, Bottom 10-20%, Bottom 20-30%, Bottom 30-40%, and Bottom 40-50%, according to the [Academic Freedom Index.](https://academic-freedom-index.net/)\n\nThis question will resolve as a **No** if the United States of America is ranked in the top 40-50% or higher on the Academic Freedom Index for the year 2025.\n\nThis question will resolve as ambiguous if the Academic Freedom Index is no longer published, if the AFI does not report data for the year 2025 (but does report data for 2026 or later), or if the AFI does not report the 2025 data by December 31, 2028.",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15370",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.5",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "14364",
                "12106"
            ],
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "14364",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will wild influenza B/Yamagata be declared eradicated before 2030?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14364.",
                    "background": "The COVID-19 pandemic led to worldwide handwashing, masking, social distancing, and lockdowns.  Although this was designed to prevent the spread of COVID-19, it affected many other viruses as well, essentially preventing the 2020-2021 flu season.  It may have even eradicated a strain of flu: [wild influenza B/Yamagata has not been definitively seen anywhere in the world since April 2020](https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/09/covid-may-have-pushed-a-leading-seasonal-flu-strain-to-extinction/).\n\nHowever, there have been [sporadic cases of influenza B/Yamagata as recently as October 2022](https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZTkyODcyOTEtZjA5YS00ZmI0LWFkZGUtODIxNGI5OTE3YjM0IiwidCI6ImY2MTBjMGI3LWJkMjQtNGIzOS04MTBiLTNkYzI4MGFmYjU5MCIsImMiOjh9); it's unknown whether these are wild or vaccine derived.\n\nIn 1980, [the World Health Organization (WHO) declared smallpox eradicated](https://www.who.int/health-topics/smallpox#tab=tab_1).  At present, this is the only infectious disease to be eradicated in humans (an animal disease, rinderpest, [was declared eradicated in 2011](https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1223805#:~:text=Rinderpest%20was%20declared%20eradicated%20by,ever%20to%20be%20globally%20eradicated.)).  Typically, the WHO waits some number of years without seeing a wild case to declare a disease eradicated -- the last known smallpox case was in 1977 (3 years prior to announcing it was eradicated); for rinderpest, it was 2003 (8 years).\n\nThe WHO has also declared two strains of wild polio to be eradicated, [most recently in 2019](https://www.who.int/news-room/feature-stories/detail/two-out-of-three-wild-poliovirus-strains-eradicated).  (Note that vaccine-derived cases of these strains of polio [continue to circulate](https://polioeradication.org/polio-today/polio-now/).)",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-01-14T05:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2030-01-01T04:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2030, any of the  World Health Organization (WHO), European Medicines Agency (EMA), or US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) announces that the influenza B/Yamagata strain has been eradicated. A synonym such as \"extinct\" also qualifies, as does an announcement that wild influenza B/Yamagata has been eradicated , even if there are still vaccine-derived cases. If no such announcement occurs this resolves as **No** before January 1, 2030.  If one of these agencies declares it eradicated and another wild case subsequently appears, this still resolves as **Yes**",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14364",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.297",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "12106",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will a biologic therapy targeting Mycobacterium tuberculosis be tested in humans before 2038?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12106.",
                    "background": "Among the many challenges of [tuberculosis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tuberculosis) elimination, multi-drug resistant TB (MDR-TB) and extensively drug resistant TB (XDR-TB) are major concerns in areas of very severe TB incidence, especially in [countries of the former Soviet Union](https://academic.oup.com/jtm/article/28/6/taab069/6274753?login=true), [South](https://idpjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s40249-021-00803-w) and [central Asia](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6938018/). There is also particular concern for [cities](https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/36/12/e152/299509), a major issue in an increasingly urbanizing world. \n\nOne possible tool in alleviating the problem of antimicrobial resistance includes [biologic therapies](http://www.eurekaselect.com/article/89346). According to [Rivas-Santiago et al.](http://www.eurekaselect.com/article/89346), antimicrobial peptides \u201chave demonstrated remarkable efficacy to kill mycobacteria in vitro and in vivo in experimental models\u201d. [Dijksteel et al](https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmicb.2021.616979/full). provide an overview of all clinical trials and therapeutic uses of biologic therapies in humans in Table 1 of their article, but none specifically target TB as of the article publication on February 22, 2021.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2022-08-06T05:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2038-01-01T06:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if a clinical trial is registered on [ClinicalTrials.gov](https://clinicaltrials.gov/) which tests a biologic therapy's efficacy against tuberculosis in human subjects.  The success or efficacy of the therapy is not relevant to the resolution of the question; performance of the trial is the sole criterion.  Any stage of clinical trial ([phase 1 or later](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phases_of_clinical_research)) will be sufficient to resolve the question",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12106",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.618",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "5768",
                "15370"
            ],
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "5768",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will any senior executives of these major public companies be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5768.",
                    "background": "In 2006 [Jeffrey Skilling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffrey_Skilling) was imprisoned for 12 years for his part in the [Enron scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enron_scandal). \n\nSince then, there have been very few high profile convictions of corporate bad-actors. (Much ink was spilled over the lack of convictions of bankers during for the [2007-2008 financial crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008))\n\nThere have been prison terms for some more junior employees. [Tom Hayes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Hayes_(trader)) was imprisoned for his part of the [LIBOR fixing scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libor_scandal) although generally executives have escaped sanctions:\n\nThere are currently outstanding warrants for Wirecard executives, and a former [VW CEO is faces charges of fraud in court](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_emissions_scandal#Charges_against_Volkswagen_engineering/management).  (His imprisonment would result in this question resolving positive)",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2021-01-13T03:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2026-01-01T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if any senior executive (current or former) is convicted of crimes relating to actions taken in a corporate capacity (ie ignoring crimes committed which are unrelated to their companies and crimes committed for their own benefit at the expense of their employer (eg insider trading)), and their prison sentence begins between January 1, 2021 to January 1, 2026.\n\nSenior executives are those executives and directors who are named on official filings to their respective stock exchanges.\n\nAn executive will be eigible in this question if they are employed by a company that was listed in any of these major indicies at any time in 2021 or later, even if subsequently delisted:\n\n* S&P500\n* FTSE100\n* DAX40\n* CAC40\n* FTSE MIB\n* Nikkei 22",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5768",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.35000000000000003",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "15370",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will the United States score in the bottom 50% for academic freedom in 2025 (according to the AFI)?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15370.",
                    "background": "The [Academic Freedom Index (AFI)](https://academic-freedom-index.net/) is a comprehensive and widely recognized tool for assessing de facto levels of academic freedom across the world. The AFI evaluates five key indicators of academic freedom, including the freedom to research and teach, freedom of academic exchange and dissemination, institutional autonomy, campus integrity, and freedom of academic and cultural expression. The index currently covers 179 countries and territories, and is considered the most comprehensive dataset available on the subject of academic freedom. The index employs a methodology that includes assessments by 2,197 country experts, standardized questionnaires, and a well-established statistical model, implemented and adapted by the [V-Dem project](https://v-dem.net/). The 2023 report (of the period up to December 2022) places the United States of the America in the Top 40-50% bracket (pg. 2-3) and outlines the following threats to academic freedom: \n\n> China, India, the United States of America and Mexico are among the most populous countries where academic freedom has significantly fallen back over the past decade. These developments have occurred in different political settings and do not all follow the same pattern.\n\n> The United States of America presents a different picture. **After a long period of relatively high academic freedom levels, four out of five indicators visibly declined in 2021** \u2013 the year after President Donald Trump, who repeatedly made statements highly critical of science and academia, was voted out of office. Although some federal actions detrimental to academic freedom were taken during his administration, educational matters in the USA are largely regulated by individual states, which have increasingly used their authority to interfere in academic affairs since 2021. At least nine states, all Republican-led, have adopted bills that ban the teaching of concepts related to \u201ccritical race theory\u201d in higher education institutions. Several states are also targeting tenure in public universities, adding to the already precarious status of academic employment. Some states now also allow students to record class lectures without the professor\u2019s consent. Furthermore, influential conservative groups are lobbying state legislatures to withdraw funding from scientific fields such as gender, minority studies, and environmental science, and various groups are maintaining public \u201cwatchlists\u201d of professors perceived as radical leftists. Despite efforts to polarize and intimidate, AFI data on academics\u2019 freedom of expression indicates that scholars in the USA remain able to publically voice their expertise, even on politically salient issues.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-03-06T21:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-12-31T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as a **Yes** if the United States of America is ranked in the bottom 50% for academic freedom in 2025, which includes the following brackets: Bottom 10%, Bottom 10-20%, Bottom 20-30%, Bottom 30-40%, and Bottom 40-50%, according to the [Academic Freedom Index.](https://academic-freedom-index.net/)\n\nThis question will resolve as a **No** if the United States of America is ranked in the top 40-50% or higher on the Academic Freedom Index for the year 2025.\n\nThis question will resolve as ambiguous if the Academic Freedom Index is no longer published, if the AFI does not report data for the year 2025 (but does report data for 2026 or later), or if the AFI does not report the 2025 data by December 31, 2028.",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15370",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.5",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "4290",
                "12106"
            ],
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "4290",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will NAD+ boosters be shown in a systematic review to increase human lifespan by >=5% by 2030?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4290.",
                    "background": "",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2020-06-01T09:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2027-01-01T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "Long-term supplementation of NAD+ boosters such as Nicotinamide Riboside and Nicotinamide Mononucleotide have been demonstrated to increase lifespan in animal models.\n\nHuman clinical trials are ongoing, with published papers demonstrating:\n\n + Safety and increase in NAD+ levels. ([1],[2])\n + Insulin sensitivity unchanged. ([1])\n + Cardiac biomarkers seem to improve. ([3])\n\nWill a systematic review of human trials conclude by 2030 that NAD+ boosting is effective in increasing human lifespan by >5%?\n\nThis question will resolve positive if at any point until 2030 a systematic review of clinical trials of NAD+ boosting will explicitly mention a lifespan improvement of at least 5% in humans. (results in animal models or lifespan estimation based on results in treatment of diseases are not enough for positive resolution)\n\n[1]: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29992272/\n\n[2]: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29211728/\n\n[3]: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5876407/",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4290",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.05",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "12106",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will a biologic therapy targeting Mycobacterium tuberculosis be tested in humans before 2038?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12106.",
                    "background": "Among the many challenges of [tuberculosis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tuberculosis) elimination, multi-drug resistant TB (MDR-TB) and extensively drug resistant TB (XDR-TB) are major concerns in areas of very severe TB incidence, especially in [countries of the former Soviet Union](https://academic.oup.com/jtm/article/28/6/taab069/6274753?login=true), [South](https://idpjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s40249-021-00803-w) and [central Asia](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6938018/). There is also particular concern for [cities](https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/36/12/e152/299509), a major issue in an increasingly urbanizing world. \n\nOne possible tool in alleviating the problem of antimicrobial resistance includes [biologic therapies](http://www.eurekaselect.com/article/89346). According to [Rivas-Santiago et al.](http://www.eurekaselect.com/article/89346), antimicrobial peptides \u201chave demonstrated remarkable efficacy to kill mycobacteria in vitro and in vivo in experimental models\u201d. [Dijksteel et al](https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmicb.2021.616979/full). provide an overview of all clinical trials and therapeutic uses of biologic therapies in humans in Table 1 of their article, but none specifically target TB as of the article publication on February 22, 2021.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2022-08-06T05:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2038-01-01T06:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if a clinical trial is registered on [ClinicalTrials.gov](https://clinicaltrials.gov/) which tests a biologic therapy's efficacy against tuberculosis in human subjects.  The success or efficacy of the therapy is not relevant to the resolution of the question; performance of the trial is the sole criterion.  Any stage of clinical trial ([phase 1 or later](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phases_of_clinical_research)) will be sufficient to resolve the question",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12106",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.618",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "13924",
                "3244"
            ],
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "13924",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will at least 200 Benin Bronzes go from the British Museum to Nigeria before 2030?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13924.",
                    "background": "Benin, in present-day Nigeria, was a powerful and wealthy state that had trade relations with the Portuguese since the 15th century. Benin traded ivory, gum, pepper, and cotton cloth for the Portuguese copper, brass, and other metals. In the 17th century, Benin's Oba (king) began raiding and trading for slaves from neighboring kingdoms. Benin became one of the major hubs of the slave trade in West Africa, along with Dahomey and Oyo.\n\nAfter the slave trade was abolished by Britain in 1807, Benin faced several challenges and changes. The British navy tried to suppress the illegal slave trade by patrolling the coast and intercepting slave ships. This disrupted Benin's economy and trade relations with other African states and Europe. Benin also had to deal with internal conflicts and rebellions from some of its vassal states that wanted more autonomy or independence. Benin tried to resist British colonialism by maintaining its sovereignty and culture, but it was eventually defeated by a British punitive expedition in 1897 that sacked and burned the city, looted its treasures and artworks, and deposed its Oba. Benin became part of the British protectorate of Nigeria until it gained its independence in 1960.\n\nThe Benin Bronzes were a collection of brass plaques, sculptures, and other objects looted from Benin. The bronzes are notable for their intricate and detailed designs, which often depict historical events, royal figures, and other aspects of Benin culture and history. The collection is considered to be one of the greatest examples of African art and craftsmanship, and it is highly valued by museums and collectors around the world.\n\n[According to Richard Assheton](https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/why-returning-the-benin-bronzes-is-so-complicated-j2m8ffz23),\n\n> Colonial powers initially refused to believe an African civilisation had produced these stunning works. Today, more than 900 lie in the British Museum, and others in museums and private collections all over the world.\n\n> ...\n\n> The British Museum ... has refused [to transfer away ownership of any of the bronzes], saying it is bound by law not to give away its collections.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-05-30T02:17:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2030-01-01T04:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "Resolves as **Yes** if at least 200 Benin bronzes that were formerly owned by the British Museum physically return to Nigeria before 2030.",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13924",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.36",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "3244",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will Robert Caro's fifth and final volume of his Lyndon Johnson biography be published during his lifetime?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3244.",
                    "background": "American journalist and author [Robert A. Caro](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Caro) (born October 30, 1935) has for the last decades been working on _The Years of Lyndon Johnson_, a multi-volume biography of the former US President. The work is planned to consist of five volumes, the first four of which were published in 1982, 1990, 2002, 2012, respectively.\n\n[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Years_of_Lyndon_Johnson#Planned_book_five) summarizes the publication estimates given at various points since 2011:\n\n>In November 2011, Caro estimated that the fifth and final volume would require another two to three years to write. In March 2013, he affirmed a commitment to completing the series with a fifth volume. As of April 2014, he was continuing to research the book. In a televised interview with C-SPAN in May 2017, Caro confirmed over 400 typed pages as being complete, covering the period 1964\u201365; and that once he completes the section on Johnson's 1965 legislative achievements, he intends to move to Vietnam to continue the writing process.\n\n>In an interview with The New York Review of Books in January 2018, Caro said that he was writing about 1965 and 1966 and a non-chronological section about the relationship between Johnson and Bobby Kennedy. Asked if he still planned to visit Vietnam soon, Caro replied: \"Not yet, no. This is a very long book. And there's a lot to do before that's necessary. I'm getting close to it now.\" In December 2018, it was reported that Caro is still \"several years from finishing\" the volume.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2019-10-25T23:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2030-01-01T03:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Caro's fifth and final volume of _The Years of Lyndon Johnson_ becomes available for order (_not_ pre-order) on amazon.com while Caro is still alive.\n\nIf the fifth book is not intended to be the last, this question will resolve as **No** if the book intended to be the last one is not published during Caro's lifetime.  If it's unclear whether the fifth book is intended to be the last one, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous.*",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3244",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.48",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "14364",
                "3507"
            ],
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "14364",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will wild influenza B/Yamagata be declared eradicated before 2030?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14364.",
                    "background": "The COVID-19 pandemic led to worldwide handwashing, masking, social distancing, and lockdowns.  Although this was designed to prevent the spread of COVID-19, it affected many other viruses as well, essentially preventing the 2020-2021 flu season.  It may have even eradicated a strain of flu: [wild influenza B/Yamagata has not been definitively seen anywhere in the world since April 2020](https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/09/covid-may-have-pushed-a-leading-seasonal-flu-strain-to-extinction/).\n\nHowever, there have been [sporadic cases of influenza B/Yamagata as recently as October 2022](https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZTkyODcyOTEtZjA5YS00ZmI0LWFkZGUtODIxNGI5OTE3YjM0IiwidCI6ImY2MTBjMGI3LWJkMjQtNGIzOS04MTBiLTNkYzI4MGFmYjU5MCIsImMiOjh9); it's unknown whether these are wild or vaccine derived.\n\nIn 1980, [the World Health Organization (WHO) declared smallpox eradicated](https://www.who.int/health-topics/smallpox#tab=tab_1).  At present, this is the only infectious disease to be eradicated in humans (an animal disease, rinderpest, [was declared eradicated in 2011](https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1223805#:~:text=Rinderpest%20was%20declared%20eradicated%20by,ever%20to%20be%20globally%20eradicated.)).  Typically, the WHO waits some number of years without seeing a wild case to declare a disease eradicated -- the last known smallpox case was in 1977 (3 years prior to announcing it was eradicated); for rinderpest, it was 2003 (8 years).\n\nThe WHO has also declared two strains of wild polio to be eradicated, [most recently in 2019](https://www.who.int/news-room/feature-stories/detail/two-out-of-three-wild-poliovirus-strains-eradicated).  (Note that vaccine-derived cases of these strains of polio [continue to circulate](https://polioeradication.org/polio-today/polio-now/).)",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-01-14T05:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2030-01-01T04:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2030, any of the  World Health Organization (WHO), European Medicines Agency (EMA), or US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) announces that the influenza B/Yamagata strain has been eradicated. A synonym such as \"extinct\" also qualifies, as does an announcement that wild influenza B/Yamagata has been eradicated , even if there are still vaccine-derived cases. If no such announcement occurs this resolves as **No** before January 1, 2030.  If one of these agencies declares it eradicated and another wild case subsequently appears, this still resolves as **Yes**",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14364",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.297",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "3507",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will EQRx get at least one drug approved by the FDA before the end of 2030?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3507.",
                    "background": "",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2020-01-21T23:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2026-02-23T23:34:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "From [this Chemical and Engineering News article](https://cen.acs.org/pharmaceuticals/EQRx-launches-developdrugs-steep-discount/98/web/2020/01):\n\n> Venture capitalist and serial entrepreneur Alexis Borisy has founded EQRx to develop equal or better versions of innovative medicines\u2014often called me-too drugs\u2014and sell them at a substantial discount to competing therapies. With an initial investment of $200 million from a syndicate of investors, the biotech firm plans to put 10 new, more affordable drugs on the market in the next decade.\n\nHe plans to do that unsing *technology* (ibid.):\n\n> \u201cToday, you can do a virtual screen of a billion compounds, do on-demand synthesis of all of those, and you can do it overnight in the cloud.\u201d\n\n> Once a molecule is made, Borisy points to the potential to analyze reams of clinical data to design efficient studies that can prove a drug\u2019s value to government groups and payers.\n\n> Combined, these technological efficiencies could bring down the cost of getting a drug onto the market\u2014often cited as between $2 billion and $3 billion\u2014by an order of magnitude, Borisy says. If EQRx spends, on average, $300 million to $400 million per drug, he believes the biotech firm can still be \u201cvery profitable,\u201d even as it offers its medicines at a significant discount.\n\nA [Stat article](https://www.statnews.com/2020/01/12/venture-capitalist-alexis-borisy-bring-down-drug-prices/) has this to say about EQRx's plan:\n\n> Quite simply, Borisy is going to invent and develop new drugs, and sell them for less money than the competition. He calls this \u201ca radical proposition.\u201d In any other sector, it would just be called \u201cbusiness.\u201d\n\nTo offer some counterweight, Derek Lowe (who writes probably the most famous and oldest chemistry blog, and has been working in drug discovery for decades) [has this to say](https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/01/15/eqrxs-challenge-and-my-challenge-to-them):\n\n> No, in case you were wondering, you cannot virtually screen a billion compounds overnight.\n\n> no, you cannot do \u201con-demand synthesis of all of those\u201d, either.\n\n> I will put up $500 dollars on LongBets.com against the proposition that EQRx will produce ten drugs in the next ten years.\n\nWe will ask here about a much less ambitious goal: **Will EQRx get at least one new drug approved by the FDA before the end of 2030?**\n\nIf EQRx ceases to exist before 2031, this resolves negative. Exception: if the company gets bought / merges with another before it has had a drug approved by the FDA, any drug that clearly originated in EQRx and gets approved before the deadline counts.",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3507",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.37",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "1501",
                "23749"
            ],
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "1501",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Ragnar\u00f6k Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nanotechnology failure-mode?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501.",
                    "background": "*You can now see an excellent visualization of global catastrophic risks estimates produced in the Ragnar\u00f6k series [here](https://possibleworldstree.com/).*\n\n\nIn 1959, Richard Feynman pointed out that nanometre\u2010scale machines could be built and operated, and that the precision inherent in molecular construction would make it easy to build multiple identical copies. This raised the possibility of manufacturing at ever increasing speeds, in which production systems could rapidly and cheaply increase their productive capacity. This in turn suggested the possibility of destructive runaway self\u2010replication.\n\nAs Eric Drexler, a nanotech pioneer, first warned in [Engines of Creation](http://xaonon.dyndns.org/misc/engines_of_creation.pdf) in 1986 (pg. 146), \n\n> In a mature form, molecular nanotechnology would enable the construction of bacterium-scale self-replicating mechanical robots that can feed on dirt or other organic matter. Such replicators could eat up the biosphere or destroy it by other means such as by poisoning it, burning it, or blocking out sunlight. \n\n> Plants with \u2018leaves\u2019 no more efficient than today\u2019s solar cells could out\u2010compete real plants, crowding the biosphere with an inedible foliage. Tough omnivorous \u201cbacteria\u201d could out\u2010compete real bacteria: They could spread like blowing pollen, replicate swiftly, and reduce the biosphere to dust in a matter of days. A person of malicious intent in possession of this technology might cause a catastrophe on Earth by releasing such nanobots into the environment.\n\nSuch self-replicating systems, if not countered, could make the earth largely uninhabitable. Other potential risks include [ecological and health disasters resulting from nano-pollutants](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pollution_from_nanomaterials), [the use of misuse of nanotechnology weaponry](https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/are-nanoweapons-paving-the-road-to-human-extinction_us_59332a52e4b00573ab57a3fe), and, given the general-purpose character of nanotech, possibly much more.\n\nMoreover, the technology to produce a destructive nanobot seems considerably easier to develop than the technology to create an effective defense against such an attack (a global nanotech immune system, an \u201cactive shield\u201d). Regulation might also be hard. Nanotech doesn\u2019t require rare radioactive isotopes or large, easily identifiable manufacturing plants, as does production of nuclear weapons.\n\nAlthough only small portion of scientists might currently be working to develop self-replicating nanotech, [a recent study done for NASA's Institute for Advanced Concepts](https://foresight.org/study_finds_self-replicating_nanomachines_feasible/) by General Dynamics Advanced Information Systems suggests that a useful self-replicating machine could be less complex than a [Pentium 4 chip](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pentium_4), and uncovered no road blocks to extending macroscale systems to microscale and then to nanoscale self-replicating systems. Drexler [points out that much of recent surprising progress](https://www.theguardian.com/science/small-world/2013/oct/21/big-nanotech-atomically-precise-manufacturing-apm) comes from disparate fields, and isn't labelled generally \"nanotechnology\".\n\n<small>\n\nThis question is part of the Ragnar\u00f6k Question Series. Check out the other questions in the series:\n\n1. [If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n\n2. [If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n\n3. [If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n\n4. [If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\n\n5. [If a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/)\n\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n\n6. [By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n\n7. [Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n\n8. [Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n\n9. [Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n\n10. [Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n\n11. [Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\n\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n\n</small>",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2018-10-13T07:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2100-01-01T23:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "**If a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to the deployment nanotechnology?**\n\nIn [the headline question to this series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/), we defined a global catastrophe as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years.\n\nThe question resolves positively if a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less before 2100, and resolves as ambiguous if no global catastrophe occurs. Years are here defined as consecutive calendar years.",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.03",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "23749",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will an anthropomorphic robot with artificial intelligence win in a football (soccer) penalty shootout against a professional human player before January 1, 2035?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/23749.",
                    "background": "Artificial intelligence has already beaten humans in games such as chess ([Deep Blue PC, 1997](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0004370201001291)), Go ([AlphaGo description](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature24270)) or Texas Hold'em ([Libratus AI](https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aao1733)). However, all these games are logical or intellectual. They do not require special mechanisms to interact with other objects, such as a ball in football. There are already prototypes of humanoid robots that demonstrate the skills of playing football ([NewScientist](https://www.newscientist.com/article/2426328-watch-mini-humanoid-robots-showing-off-their-football-skills/)). The question is whether in about 10 years this area will be able to progress in such a way as to create a humanoid capable of playing football as a human as a goalkeeper or striker.\n\nSee also Metaculus: [When will robots win a game of association football (soccer) against professional human players?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19930/robots-beat-humans-in-football/)",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-05-25T11:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2034-12-30T10:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "For a positive outcome, a video must be released before January 1, 2035, showing an anthropomorphic robot defeating a professional human football player in a 1-on-1 football penalty shootout by either: \n\n1. the robot acting as a striker who takes a penalty kick.\n\n1. the robot acting as a goalkeeper.\n\nA negative outcome assumes that the event described above did not occur.\nThe deadline for this criterion is January 1, 2035.",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/23749",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.75",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "10393",
                "4524"
            ],
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "10393",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "If World War 3 happens before 2060, will the US and India be on the same side?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10393.",
                    "background": "In World War 1 & 2, India was under the rule of the British Crown, as part of the British Raj. As a result, it joined the wars [on the side](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Army_during_World_War_I) [of the allies](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/India_in_World_War_II).\n\nRecently, some have speculated that there may be another world war, possibly rising from Russian aggression in Eastern Europe, or from a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. If another world war occurs, will India and the United States once again be on the same side?",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2022-03-25T07:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2052-05-31T07:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "For the purpose of this question, the following clarifications are given:\n\n* The government of India during World War 3 is considered to be whatever government had _de facto_ control over New Delhi prior to the outbreak of the war. If the starting date of World War 3 is in dispute, then it refers to January 1st of the year 3 years prior to the first time time it is understood that the world is in a state of \"world war\" (see the last point for a clarification of this condition).\n\n* The government of the United States is defined similarly to the way the government of India is defined. That is, the US government is whatever government had _de facto_ control over Washington D.C. prior to the outbreak of World War 3.\n\n* Two governments are said to be \"on the same side\" of a conflict if they regularly give aid and comfort to each other, actively fight a common enemy, or have formal treaties of alliance with each other, which are widely recognized to be valid.\n\n* A \"great power\" is a nation that ranks within the top ten nations by military spending, in nominal dollars, according to a reputable organization. These figures will ideally be decided by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, or if that organization ceases to exist, the International Institute for Strategic Studies. If both organizations either cease to exist or stop publishing figures on military spending, Metaculus admins will use their discretion to decide which organization to refer to.\n\n* The world is said to be in a state of \"world war\" if ANY of the following become true within a three year period, starting on January 1st of a particular year: (1) at least five great powers are all engaged in a direct, confrontational (non-proxy) war, with at least one great power on the other side of the other great powers (2) at least ten million people across at least three continents have died in conflicts that are widely considered to be related to one another, according to the United Nations, or another reputable international body as determined by Metaculus admins (a single localized civil war or genocide will not count), (3) at least one nuclear weapon has non-accidentally been deployed and used in wartime by a great power, in the course of a conflict, against another great power.\n\n* World War 3 is the next world war to occur after World War 2.\n\nThis question resolves ambiguously in the case that World War 3 did not occur before 2060. It resolves positively if the governments of the United States and India are on the same side during that war, and negatively if they are on opposite sides. It also resolves ambiguously if one or both parties are not significant players in World War 3",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10393",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.74",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "4524",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will the US conduct a nuclear test explosion before 2030?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4524.",
                    "background": "[Trinity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trinity_(nuclear_test)) was the first nuclear weapon test. The test was conducted above ground on July 16, 1945 on what is now known as the White Sands Missile Range. Since Trinity, over 2,000 nuclear tests have been [conducted](https://www.fastcompany.com/3049706/visualized-every-haunting-nuclear-bomb-detonation-since-1945) world wide. \n\nThe US has conducted over 1,000 nuclear tests. The final test to be conducted by the US, code-name [Divder](https://www.ctbto.org/specials/testing-times/23-september-1992-last-us-nuclear-test), took place on September 23, 1992. Soon after, Gearge H. W. Bush  [declared a moratorium](https://www.thereaganvision.org/u-s-nuclear-weapons-testing-moratorium/) on nuclear weapons testing. In 1996, the US signed the [Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty](https://www.nti.org/learn/treaties-and-regimes/comprehensive-nuclear-test-ban-treaty-ctbt/) which bans any type of nuclear explosion. To date, the treaty has not been ratified by the appropriate countries (including the US) and has [not yet entered into force](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comprehensive_Nuclear-Test-Ban_Treaty).\n\nThe decision to end nuclear weapons testing has not been recommended by everyone. One of the [core missions](https://www.energy.gov/nnsa/missions/maintaining-stockpile) of the National Nuclear Security Administration is to \"ensure the United States maintains a safe, secure, and reliable nuclear stockpile through the application of unparalleled science, technology, engineering, and manufacturing.\" This is largely accomplished through [super computers](https://www.discovermagazine.com/technology/testing-nuclear-weapons-is-more-important-than-ever). However, some [argue](https://www.heritage.org/arms-control/report/keeping-nuclear-testing-the-table-national-security-imperative) that weapons tests are still needed to accomplish this mission.\n\nMore recently, there have been [reports](https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-administration-considered-a-nuclear-bomb-test-washington-post-2020-5) that the Trump administration has considered performing a nuclear test explosion in response to potential low-yield tests from Russia and China.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2020-06-02T15:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2029-12-31T13:01:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively to verification of a nuclear explosion by the CTBTO, the UN, or if an official government statement from the US is issued confirming the test. The question will resolve as ambiguous if two or more other countries accuse the US of performing a nuclear test explosion but there is no verification. Otherwise, this question will resolve negatively",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4524",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.07",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "13924",
                "8403"
            ],
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "13924",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will at least 200 Benin Bronzes go from the British Museum to Nigeria before 2030?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13924.",
                    "background": "Benin, in present-day Nigeria, was a powerful and wealthy state that had trade relations with the Portuguese since the 15th century. Benin traded ivory, gum, pepper, and cotton cloth for the Portuguese copper, brass, and other metals. In the 17th century, Benin's Oba (king) began raiding and trading for slaves from neighboring kingdoms. Benin became one of the major hubs of the slave trade in West Africa, along with Dahomey and Oyo.\n\nAfter the slave trade was abolished by Britain in 1807, Benin faced several challenges and changes. The British navy tried to suppress the illegal slave trade by patrolling the coast and intercepting slave ships. This disrupted Benin's economy and trade relations with other African states and Europe. Benin also had to deal with internal conflicts and rebellions from some of its vassal states that wanted more autonomy or independence. Benin tried to resist British colonialism by maintaining its sovereignty and culture, but it was eventually defeated by a British punitive expedition in 1897 that sacked and burned the city, looted its treasures and artworks, and deposed its Oba. Benin became part of the British protectorate of Nigeria until it gained its independence in 1960.\n\nThe Benin Bronzes were a collection of brass plaques, sculptures, and other objects looted from Benin. The bronzes are notable for their intricate and detailed designs, which often depict historical events, royal figures, and other aspects of Benin culture and history. The collection is considered to be one of the greatest examples of African art and craftsmanship, and it is highly valued by museums and collectors around the world.\n\n[According to Richard Assheton](https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/why-returning-the-benin-bronzes-is-so-complicated-j2m8ffz23),\n\n> Colonial powers initially refused to believe an African civilisation had produced these stunning works. Today, more than 900 lie in the British Museum, and others in museums and private collections all over the world.\n\n> ...\n\n> The British Museum ... has refused [to transfer away ownership of any of the bronzes], saying it is bound by law not to give away its collections.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-05-30T02:17:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2030-01-01T04:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "Resolves as **Yes** if at least 200 Benin bronzes that were formerly owned by the British Museum physically return to Nigeria before 2030.",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13924",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.36",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "8403",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "By 2050, will at least 25% of Year-End Billboard Hot 100 songs be primarily composed by AI?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8403.",
                    "background": "Artificial intelligence has made significant advances with the recent development of language models such as GPT-3. It is widely expected that artificial intelligence will become significantly more capable in the future, and some believe that artificial intelligence may someday surpass human ability in certain areas, or even in general intelligence.\n\nNeuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about the capabilities of AI in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the):\n\n>The worst hit will be artists like writers, painters, poets, and musicians, who will have to deal with a total saturation of artistic content by AI.  By 2050 much of the words you read and content you consume will be generated by an AI [...]",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2022-01-19T21:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2050-01-01T20:16:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if, for any year between 2021 to 2049 (inclusive), 25 or more of the [Year-End Billboard Hot 100 Songs](https://www.billboard.com/charts/year-end/hot-100-songs) are created primarily by AI. \"Created Primarily by AI\" for the purpose of this question will mean having significant influence on the song's melody, harmony, rhythm, instrumental timbre and tone, and EQ mixing.  Evidence for an AI's involvement can be provided by the song credits, statements by producers or publishers, and/or reputable media reports. If the Year-End Billboard Hot 100 Songs list does not exist through 2049, Metaculus Admins may select and announce a replacement source, or resolve ambiguously at their discretion",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8403",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.65",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "21856",
                "25801"
            ],
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "21856",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that Iran will not possess a nuclear weapon on July 31, 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21856.",
                    "background": "**The original wager for this question appeared [here](https://www.betonit.ai/p/nuclear_iran_behtml?utm_source=%2Fsearch%2Fbet&utm_medium=reader2) and was offered to John Podhoretz on July 28, 2015 at 10:1 odds favoring Caplan**\n\n----------\n\nCaplan writes:\n\n>John Podhoretz:\n\n>\"The United States and its allies have struck a deal with Iran that\neffectively ensures that it will be a nuclear state with ballistic\nmissiles in 10 years, assuming Iran adheres to the deal\u2019s terms, which\nis a very large assumption.\"\n\n>Such supreme confidence cries out for a bet.  Draft terms: John gives me 10:1 odds that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by July 31, 2025 according to (a) any major U.S. newspaper (NYT, WSJ, up to three others of John\u2019s choice) or (b) any major international agency (Atomic Energy Commission, U.N., up to three others of John\u2019s choice).  If this happens, I immediately owe him $100.  Otherwise, he owes me $1000 on August 1, 2025.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-03-21T17:48:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-07-30T17:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "*This question belongs to the Bryan Caplan Collection, a series based on bets by economist Bryan Caplan. Find the rest of the series [here](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3053/) and Caplan's bet inventory covering most series questions [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1qShKedFJptpxfTHl9MBtHARAiurX-WK6ChrMgQRQz-0/edit).*\n\n*Note that this wager was offered by Bryan Caplan, but it does not appear in the bets wiki.**\n\n**Questions in this series resolve according to the outcome of Bryan Caplan's wager, where a resolution of 'Yes' reflects Caplan winning the bet. Questions resolve per public statements by Caplan.**\n\n---\n\nFor this question, a resolution of YES reflects that Caplan won his bet that: Iran does not possess a nuclear weapon on July 31, 2025. \n\nIf Caplan does not announce the outcome, this question resolves per reporting in the New York Times or Wall Street Journal.",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21856",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.913",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "25801",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will the world remain \"normal\" through 2030, according to specified criteria?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/25801.",
                    "background": "As of July 2, 2024, the questions had the following probabilities assessed by the Metaculus Community: \n\n- [Development of artificial general intelligence](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/) - Cumulative probability of 40% before 2030.\n\n- A [10% reduction in the human population](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/global-population-decline-10-by-2100/) - 36% chance of happening before 2100.\n\n- [Global GDP increases by 30% or more in one year](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5159/date-of-gwp-growth-over-130/) - 13% cumulative probability before 2030.\n\n- The [discovery of alien technosignatures](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1629/alien-technosignature-detection-by-2050/) - 3% chance of happening before 2050.\n\n- A [worldview-shattering explanation for UAPs (UFOs)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18075/shocking-uap-explanation-by-july-2028/) - 1.4% before July 22, 2028.\n\n- [World War III](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/world-war-three-before-2050/) - 25% chance before 2050.\n\n- A [nuclear weapon is detonated as an act of war](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4779/at-least-1-nuclear-detonation-in-war-by-2050/) - 23% before 2050.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-07-05T11:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2029-12-31T19:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if **none** of the following occur before January 1, 2030:\n\n- The **development of artificial general intelligence**, which will be considered to occur if the question *[When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/)* resolves to a date before January 1, 2030.\n- A **10% reduction in the human population**, which will be considered to occur if the question *[By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/global-population-decline-10-by-2100/)* resolves as Yes before January 1, 2030.\n- Global **GDP increases by 30% or more in one year**, which will be considered to occur if the question *[In which year will the world's real GDP first exceed 130% of its highest level from any previous year?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5159/date-of-gwp-growth-over-130/)* resolves to a date before January 1, 2030.\n- The **discovery of alien technosignatures**, which will be considered to occur if the question *[Will alien technosignatures be detected before 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1629/alien-technosignature-detection-by-2050/)* resolves as Yes before January 1, 2030.\n- A **worldview-shattering explanation for UAPs** becomes accepted, which will be considered to occur if the question *[Will Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena have an ontologically-shocking explanation?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18075/shocking-uap-explanation-by-july-2028/)* resolves as **Yes**.\n - **World War III**, which will be considered to occur if the question *[Will there be a \"World War Three\" before 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/world-war-three-before-2050/)* resolves as **Yes** before January 1, 2030.\n- A **nuclear weapon is detonated as an act of war**, which will be considered to occur if the question *[Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4779/at-least-1-nuclear-detonation-in-war-by-2050/)* resolves as **Yes** before January 1, 2030.\n\nThis question will resolve as **No** (meaning this is no longer a \"normal\" world) if one or more of the above Metaculus questions has positively resolved before January 1, 2030.",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/25801",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.5",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "8378",
                "4524"
            ],
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "8378",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will the total yield across all countries' nuclear stockpiles at the end of 2029 exceed 10,000Mt?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8378.",
                    "background": "For further context and motivation for this and other questions in this tournament on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields, and a list of such questions, see [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ldq0qAutq5Gam8dIRVxA_bzd0Rqz_pL3md8dosHoXjU/edit).\n\nThe total yield across all arsenals depends on both the number of weapons in states' stockpiles and the yield of each of those weapons. This tournament has or will soon have other questions on the number of nuclear weapons that'll be in states' stockpiles and the largest yield weapon that'll be possessed. \n\nStockpiles include deployed, reserve/nondeployed, and retired (but still intact) warheads, and both strategic and nonstrategic weapons. If states that aren't currently nuclear-armed are nuclear-armed when the latest estimated published in 2029 are made, their stockpiles can count towards positive resolution.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2021-10-28T14:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2029-12-31T22:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "Resolution will be based on the most recent estimates published in 2029 by reputable sources such as the [Federation of American Scientists (FAS)](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/). If no reputable sources explicitly estimate the total yield across all states' nuclear stockpiles in 2029, resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins, who will:\n\n* ask an author of relevant publications (e.g., [Matt Korda](https://fas.org/expert/matt-korda/)) for an estimate, and/or \n\n* make an estimate based on what reputable sources say about things like the number of weapons of various types and the yield of those weapons, or the numbers and median yields of each states' nuclear stockpile",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8378",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.25",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "4524",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will the US conduct a nuclear test explosion before 2030?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4524.",
                    "background": "[Trinity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trinity_(nuclear_test)) was the first nuclear weapon test. The test was conducted above ground on July 16, 1945 on what is now known as the White Sands Missile Range. Since Trinity, over 2,000 nuclear tests have been [conducted](https://www.fastcompany.com/3049706/visualized-every-haunting-nuclear-bomb-detonation-since-1945) world wide. \n\nThe US has conducted over 1,000 nuclear tests. The final test to be conducted by the US, code-name [Divder](https://www.ctbto.org/specials/testing-times/23-september-1992-last-us-nuclear-test), took place on September 23, 1992. Soon after, Gearge H. W. Bush  [declared a moratorium](https://www.thereaganvision.org/u-s-nuclear-weapons-testing-moratorium/) on nuclear weapons testing. In 1996, the US signed the [Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty](https://www.nti.org/learn/treaties-and-regimes/comprehensive-nuclear-test-ban-treaty-ctbt/) which bans any type of nuclear explosion. To date, the treaty has not been ratified by the appropriate countries (including the US) and has [not yet entered into force](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comprehensive_Nuclear-Test-Ban_Treaty).\n\nThe decision to end nuclear weapons testing has not been recommended by everyone. One of the [core missions](https://www.energy.gov/nnsa/missions/maintaining-stockpile) of the National Nuclear Security Administration is to \"ensure the United States maintains a safe, secure, and reliable nuclear stockpile through the application of unparalleled science, technology, engineering, and manufacturing.\" This is largely accomplished through [super computers](https://www.discovermagazine.com/technology/testing-nuclear-weapons-is-more-important-than-ever). However, some [argue](https://www.heritage.org/arms-control/report/keeping-nuclear-testing-the-table-national-security-imperative) that weapons tests are still needed to accomplish this mission.\n\nMore recently, there have been [reports](https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-administration-considered-a-nuclear-bomb-test-washington-post-2020-5) that the Trump administration has considered performing a nuclear test explosion in response to potential low-yield tests from Russia and China.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2020-06-02T15:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2029-12-31T13:01:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively to verification of a nuclear explosion by the CTBTO, the UN, or if an official government statement from the US is issued confirming the test. The question will resolve as ambiguous if two or more other countries accuse the US of performing a nuclear test explosion but there is no verification. Otherwise, this question will resolve negatively",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4524",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.07",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "17519",
                "25578"
            ],
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "17519",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will the UK housing market crash before July 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17519.",
                    "background": "As of 19 June 2023, the [Rightmove House Price Index](https://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/house-price-index/) indicates that the average asking price for a property in the UK is \u00a3372,812.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-06-22T16:51:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-06-30T22:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if, for any month before July 2025, the [Rightmove House Price Index](https://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/house-price-index/) indicates that the National average asking price for houses is equal to or less than \u00a3260,968; a decline of 30% from June 2023 levels.",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17519",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.001",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "25578",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "By 2030, will there be a synthetic protein fiber costing less than nylon?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/25578.",
                    "background": "There are several sources used nowadays for spinning yarn to make clothes and other textile products.\n\nOne source is natural protein fibers such as cotton, wool and silk. Another is synthetic fibers; some of these are called semi-synthetic, as they are produced from plant-based cellulose, like wood pulp. Examples include rayon and viscose. Then there are fully synthetic fibers, usually made from fossil fuels by polymerization of certain petrochemicals, among which are nylon and polyester.\n\nOne emerging area of research is to use synthetic biology processes to produce protein fibers. Possible pathways include cultured cells, genetically-modified organisms and protein design.\n\nWe want to forecast when one such fiber will be available for cheaper than a widely-available commodity synthetic fiber, using nylon as the reference. Although polyester is the most produced fiber, we have chosen nylon because it is 30 times more expensive per unit, higher quality than polyester, and thus more vulnerable to potential economic disruption from synbio, which makes it a more achievable goal for the industry. \n\nMultiple companies are currently working on this. Lululemon for example has recently [partnered](https://www.genomatica.com/nylon/) with Genomatica to develop a plant-based nylon to replace some of the petroleum-based nylon in [some](https://www.retaildive.com/news/lululemon-geno-plant-based-nylon-shirts/648222/) of its apparel.  For more information and context please see the following report from the Boston Consulting Group: [Synthetic Biology Is About to Disrupt Your Industry](https://www.bcg.com/publications/2022/synthetic-biology-is-about-to-disrupt-your-industry)",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-07-03T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2029-07-01T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, at any point before January 1, 2030, there is a synthetic protein fiber available for open market purchase at a price cheaper than nylon.",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/25578",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.02",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "21856",
                "578"
            ],
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "21856",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that Iran will not possess a nuclear weapon on July 31, 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21856.",
                    "background": "**The original wager for this question appeared [here](https://www.betonit.ai/p/nuclear_iran_behtml?utm_source=%2Fsearch%2Fbet&utm_medium=reader2) and was offered to John Podhoretz on July 28, 2015 at 10:1 odds favoring Caplan**\n\n----------\n\nCaplan writes:\n\n>John Podhoretz:\n\n>\"The United States and its allies have struck a deal with Iran that\neffectively ensures that it will be a nuclear state with ballistic\nmissiles in 10 years, assuming Iran adheres to the deal\u2019s terms, which\nis a very large assumption.\"\n\n>Such supreme confidence cries out for a bet.  Draft terms: John gives me 10:1 odds that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by July 31, 2025 according to (a) any major U.S. newspaper (NYT, WSJ, up to three others of John\u2019s choice) or (b) any major international agency (Atomic Energy Commission, U.N., up to three others of John\u2019s choice).  If this happens, I immediately owe him $100.  Otherwise, he owes me $1000 on August 1, 2025.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-03-21T17:48:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-07-30T17:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "*This question belongs to the Bryan Caplan Collection, a series based on bets by economist Bryan Caplan. Find the rest of the series [here](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3053/) and Caplan's bet inventory covering most series questions [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1qShKedFJptpxfTHl9MBtHARAiurX-WK6ChrMgQRQz-0/edit).*\n\n*Note that this wager was offered by Bryan Caplan, but it does not appear in the bets wiki.**\n\n**Questions in this series resolve according to the outcome of Bryan Caplan's wager, where a resolution of 'Yes' reflects Caplan winning the bet. Questions resolve per public statements by Caplan.**\n\n---\n\nFor this question, a resolution of YES reflects that Caplan won his bet that: Iran does not possess a nuclear weapon on July 31, 2025. \n\nIf Caplan does not announce the outcome, this question resolves per reporting in the New York Times or Wall Street Journal.",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21856",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.913",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "578",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will humans go extinct before 2100?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578.",
                    "background": "While the general feeling of most people, especially now that the cold war is (mostly) over, is that the risk of human extinction is extremely small, experts have assigned a significantly higher probability to the event.\n\nIn 2008 an [informal poll at the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference at the University of Oxford](https://www.webcitation.org/6YxiCAV0p?url=http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/gcr-report.pdf) yielded a median probability of human extinction by 2100 of 19%. Yet, one might want to be cautious when using this result as a good estimate of the true probability of human extinction, as there may be a powerful selection effect at play. Only those who assign a high probability to human extinction are likely to attend the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference in the first place, meaning that the survey was effectively sampling opinions from one extreme tail of the opinion distribution on the subject. Indeed, the conference report itself stated that the findings should be taken 'with a grain of salt'.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2017-11-12T08:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2100-01-02T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if there are no known humans alive on January 1, 2100.  For these purposes we'll define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors \u2013 via a chain of live births from mothers \u2013  circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring. (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count).  Any living humans living anywhere in the observable universe (or multiverse) (who are known to the entities operating Metaculus) on that date will be sufficient to resolve the question negatively.\n\nN.B. Even though it is obviously the case that if human extinction occurs Metaculus points won't be very valuable anymore and that it will be practically impossible to check for true human extinction (zero humans left), I would like to ask people not to let this fact influence their prediction and to predict in good faith",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.006",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "7335",
                "15370"
            ],
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "7335",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will Freedom House report that internet freedom has declined every year until 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7335.",
                    "background": "The Freedom on the Net [report](https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-net/2020/pandemics-digital-shadow) is an annual report on internet freedom worldwide, produced by Freedom House. It tracks changes in internet regulation across 65 countries. As of the 2020 edition, it claimed that freedom had been on the decline (operationalised as more countries' scores decreasing than increasing) for ten years in a row, with 26 countries' scores worsening and 22 improving in 2020. This question asks if this pattern of decline will persist for the next five years.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2021-06-20T07:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-06-30T23:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if for each year until 2025, inclusive, Freedom House reports more countries with a decrease in their internet freedom scores than with an increase",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7335",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.9",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "15370",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will the United States score in the bottom 50% for academic freedom in 2025 (according to the AFI)?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15370.",
                    "background": "The [Academic Freedom Index (AFI)](https://academic-freedom-index.net/) is a comprehensive and widely recognized tool for assessing de facto levels of academic freedom across the world. The AFI evaluates five key indicators of academic freedom, including the freedom to research and teach, freedom of academic exchange and dissemination, institutional autonomy, campus integrity, and freedom of academic and cultural expression. The index currently covers 179 countries and territories, and is considered the most comprehensive dataset available on the subject of academic freedom. The index employs a methodology that includes assessments by 2,197 country experts, standardized questionnaires, and a well-established statistical model, implemented and adapted by the [V-Dem project](https://v-dem.net/). The 2023 report (of the period up to December 2022) places the United States of the America in the Top 40-50% bracket (pg. 2-3) and outlines the following threats to academic freedom: \n\n> China, India, the United States of America and Mexico are among the most populous countries where academic freedom has significantly fallen back over the past decade. These developments have occurred in different political settings and do not all follow the same pattern.\n\n> The United States of America presents a different picture. **After a long period of relatively high academic freedom levels, four out of five indicators visibly declined in 2021** \u2013 the year after President Donald Trump, who repeatedly made statements highly critical of science and academia, was voted out of office. Although some federal actions detrimental to academic freedom were taken during his administration, educational matters in the USA are largely regulated by individual states, which have increasingly used their authority to interfere in academic affairs since 2021. At least nine states, all Republican-led, have adopted bills that ban the teaching of concepts related to \u201ccritical race theory\u201d in higher education institutions. Several states are also targeting tenure in public universities, adding to the already precarious status of academic employment. Some states now also allow students to record class lectures without the professor\u2019s consent. Furthermore, influential conservative groups are lobbying state legislatures to withdraw funding from scientific fields such as gender, minority studies, and environmental science, and various groups are maintaining public \u201cwatchlists\u201d of professors perceived as radical leftists. Despite efforts to polarize and intimidate, AFI data on academics\u2019 freedom of expression indicates that scholars in the USA remain able to publically voice their expertise, even on politically salient issues.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-03-06T21:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-12-31T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as a **Yes** if the United States of America is ranked in the bottom 50% for academic freedom in 2025, which includes the following brackets: Bottom 10%, Bottom 10-20%, Bottom 20-30%, Bottom 30-40%, and Bottom 40-50%, according to the [Academic Freedom Index.](https://academic-freedom-index.net/)\n\nThis question will resolve as a **No** if the United States of America is ranked in the top 40-50% or higher on the Academic Freedom Index for the year 2025.\n\nThis question will resolve as ambiguous if the Academic Freedom Index is no longer published, if the AFI does not report data for the year 2025 (but does report data for 2026 or later), or if the AFI does not report the 2025 data by December 31, 2028.",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15370",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.5",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "22377",
                "1536"
            ],
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "22377",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will Python still be most popular programming language at the end of 2030?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22377.",
                    "background": "There are plenty of programming languages (PLs) being used across various fields of business, science, and more. Some are considered suitable for specific tasks, while others have broader applications. For those studying or seeking programming-related employment it is essential to understand which PLs are currently relevant to increase their chances of finding a job.\n\nThe question itself is tricky. How can we measure the popularity of a PL? One way is to measure the percentage of PLs used in [GitHub projects](https://octoverse.github.com/2022/top-programming-languages). However, not every company uses GitHub repositories; there are alternatives such as GitLab, GitFlic, etc. Additionally, some companies use their local servers to store their projects, making it challenging to gather such information.\n\nAnother method of measuring PLs' popularity is by calculating ratings based on the hits from popular search engines, similar to what the [TIOBE index](https://www.tiobe.com/tiobe-index/programminglanguages_definition/) does. This approach is more suitable and can provide us with more representative and extensive data because most languages are continually evolving. Even experienced programmers need to stay updated with newly introduced changes.\n\nAs of March 5, 2024, Python is considered the most popular language according to the TIOBE Index. Python is a high-level, general-purpose programming language. Its design philosophy emphasizes code readability through significant indentation. Python is dynamically typed and garbage-collected. It supports multiple programming paradigms, including structured (particularly procedural), object-oriented, and functional programming. Python is widely used in data science, machine learning, web development, etc.\n\nWhile popularity alone is not the sole factor for those choosing their future study area, understanding trends can be helpful. Many \"younger\" languages like Rust, Go, Swift, and others are gaining popularity and may potentially dominate in the near future.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-04-12T14:20:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2030-10-30T16:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if on December 31, 2030, Python occupies first place of the [TIOBE Index rankings](https://www.tiobe.com/tiobe-index/). If Python is not in first place on that date, the question resolves as **No**.",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22377",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.66",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "1536",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will a third LIGO detector be built in India before 2028?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1536.",
                    "background": "The [Laser Interferometer Gravitational Wave Observatory](https://www.ligo.caltech.edu/) (LIGO) has been responsible for some tremendously exciting science this decade.\n\n* On [September 14, 2015](https://www.ligo.caltech.edu/news/ligo20160211), LIGO detected (through gravitational waves) the merger of two black holes billions of light years away.\n* This triumph opened a new era of [gravitational wave astronomy](https://www.space.com/39162-gravitational-waves-new-era-of-astronomy-2017.html), giving us a radical new tool to probe the cosmos.\n* LIGO and friends (like VIRGO in Europe) have since seen other black hole mash-ups and even, amazingly, the smashing of [2 neutron stars](https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/10/16/557557544/astronomers-strike-gravitational-gold-in-colliding-neutron-stars).\n* The engineering required to make this observatory hop is [just ridiculous](http://www.kavlifoundation.org/how-ligo-works).\n\nHowever, per astrophysicist Ethan Siegel, LIGO [misses ~100,000 black hole mergers every year](https://medium.com/starts-with-a-bang/ligo-misses-100-000-black-hole-mergers-a-year-d3184f5d193a). Whoa! \n\nWe need backup, apparently!\n\nWell, help may soon be on the way, in the form of another LIGO detector under construction in India. [LIGO-India](http://www.gw-indigo.org/tiki-index.php?page=LIGO-India) \"is a planned advanced gravitational-wave observatory to be located in India as part of the worldwide network.\" Possible benefits include:\n\n> Adding a new detector to the existing network will increase the expected event rates, and will boost the detection confidence of new sources (by increasing the sensitivity, sky coverage and duty cycle of the network). But the dramatic improvement from LIGO-India would come in the ability of localizing GW sources in the sky. Sky-location of the GW sources is computed by combining data from geographically separated detectors ('aperture synthesis'). Adding a new detector in India, geographically well separated from the existing LIGO-Virgo detector array, will dramatically improve the source-localization accuracies (5 to 10 times), thus enabling us to use GW observations as an excellent astronomical tool.\n\nLIGO-India is set to be built [by 2025](https://www.thehindu.com/sci-tech/technology/a-new-ligo-gravitational-wave-detector-to-be-built-in-india-by-2025/article22149855.ece). That's 2 years before our question's deadline. But delays on massive science projects happen with some frequency. (Ahem, [Elon Musk](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/innovations/wp/2018/06/06/elon-musk-has-been-missing-deadlines-since-he-was-a-kid/). Ahem, [James Webb Telescope](https://www.space.com/41016-nasa-delays-james-webb-space-telescope-2021.html).)",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2018-11-08T05:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2028-01-01T05:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if LIGO-India's observatory becomes operational (defined taking test data demonstrating a sensitivity within a factor of 10 of the instrument's specified sensitivity) at any point before January 1, 2028",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1536",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.28",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "2632",
                "26326"
            ],
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "2632",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will Nigeria's population exceed 400 million before 2050?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2632.",
                    "background": "The [Federal Republic of Nigeria](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nigeria) is a federal republic in West Africa, bordering Niger in the north, Chad in the northeast, Cameroon in the east, and Benin in the west.\n\nNigeria is often referred to as the \"Giant of Africa\", owing to its large population and economy. With more than [199 million](http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/nigeria-population/) inhabitants, Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa and the seventh most populous country in the world. Nigeria has the third-largest youth population in the world, after India and China, with more than 90 million of its population under age 18. As of 2017, Nigeria [had the fastest growing population of the 10 most populous countries worldwide.](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/nigeria-pass-u-s-world-s-3rd-most-populous-country-n775371)\n\nNigeria also has the [world's largest number of extremely poor people, with 87 million.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-22/six-people-fall-into-extreme-poverty-in-this-nation-every-minute?cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-tictoc&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_content=tictoc&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social) Today, Nigeria ranks 157 out of 189 countries in the [UN Human Development Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_Development_Index), which measures indicators such as health and inequality. Life expectancy is still only 54 years, although that\u2019s an improvement from 46 years in 1999. \n\nAbout 80 percent of people who earn an income are active in the informal sector or have what the UN calls \u201cvulnerable employment,\u201d work that lacks social security or guarantees any kind of rights. The number of destitute in Nigeria is believed to be growing by six people every minute, [according to a recent paper from The Brookings Institution.](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2018/06/19/the-start-of-a-new-poverty-narrative/) The UN expects Nigeria's population to more than double to 410 million by 2050, potentially swelling the ranks of the poor.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2019-02-25T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2050-01-01T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the total population of Nigeria is at least 400 million people at any point before January 1, 2050, according to the United Nations, World Health Organisation, competent statistical authorities in Nigeria or similarly credible data. The data need not be available on January 1, 2050; but it must provide population figures for that date or earlier.",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2632",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.323",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "26326",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Five years after AGI, will there be universal basic income?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26326.",
                    "background": "> Universal basic income (UBI) is a social welfare proposal in which all citizens of a given population regularly receive a minimum income in the form of an unconditional transfer payment, i.e., without a means test or need to work.\n> [\u2014Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_basic_income)\n> ___\n> The idea of a guaranteed income for all has been floating around for centuries, its popularity ebbing and flowing with the passing tide of current events. While it is still considered by many to be a radical concept, proponents of a universal basic income (UBI) no longer see it only as a solution to poverty but as the answer to some of the biggest threats faced by modern workers: wage inequality, job insecurity \u2013 and the looming possibility of AI-induced job losses.\n> \n> Elon Musk, at the recent Bletchley Park summit, said he believed \u201cno job is needed\u201d due to the development of AI, and that a job can be for \u201cpersonal satisfaction\u201d. Economist and political theorist Karl Widerquist, professor of philosophy at Georgetown University-Qatar, sees it differently.\n> \n> \u201cEven if AI takes your job away, you don\u2019t necessarily just become unemployed for the rest of your life,\u201d he says. \u201cWhat happens is you go down in the labour market, you start crowding the lower-income professions.\u201d\n> \n> Widerquist believes, at least in the short term, that the growth of AI will push white-collar workers into the gig economy, and into other forms of poorly paid, insecure work. Such a shift in the workforce would, he fears, drive down wages and conditions, while increasing inequality.\n> \n> Why not give people who have good alternatives the opportunity to reduce work, or not work at all?\nLoek Groot, economist\nA UBI policy in response to AI and automation would address the failure of employers to distribute the spoils of economic growth \u2013 propelled, at least in part, by automation \u2013 fairly among workers, says Widerquist.\n> \n> Some go further still, pointing to UBI as a dividend due to workers for their role in the development and dissemination of knowledge used to train AI models such as ChatGPT. \u201cWhy,\u201d asks Scott Santens, editor of website Basic Income Today, \u201cshould only one or two companies get rich off of the capital, the human work, that we all created?\u201d\n> [\u2014The Guardian, 2023](https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2023/nov/16/ai-is-coming-for-our-jobs-could-universal-basic-income-be-the-solution)",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-07-22T17:30:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2036-01-01T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, within five years of our \u201c[When will artificial general intelligence (AGI) arrive?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/)\u201d question resolving, a universal basic income (UBI) of at least USD $1,000 per month is being distributed in the entirety of at least two of the three following countries: the US, the UK, China.\n\nThis question is conditional on humans not having gone extinct.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, \u201cbeing distributed\u201d means that not only has UBI been enacted\u2014i.e., signed into law\u2014in the relevant countries, but that UBI payments are being made, according to [credible reporting](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions). (If there is ambiguity over whether UBI payments are being made, Metaculus admins will make a ruling.)\n\nThe method of enactment is irrelevant so long as it applies to the entirety of the given country. There may be eligibility criteria or exceptions, such as excluding those who already have high incomes. It will be considered to apply to the entirety of the country if nearly every individual aged 21 and over with an income below 1,000 US dollars per month is able to receive 1,000 US dollars per month with no additional requirements (such as work requirements) and no expiration of the benefits.\n\nFor Yes resolution, the two countries must be simultaneously making UBI payments. In other words, if the US, say, starts distributing UBI to its citizens the year after AGI, but then stops the following year, and China starts distributing UBI to its citizens the year after that, then this does not count for Yes resolution.\n\nThe $1,000 per month UBI specified will not be adjusted for inflation, only converted to USD at the time of enactment.",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26326",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.18",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "19408",
                "19397"
            ],
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "19408",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will Cooper Flagg make the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame before 2060?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19408.",
                    "background": "According to [ESPN](https://www.espn.com/college-sports/basketball/recruiting/player/_/id/250591/cooper-flagg) and [247Sports](https://247sports.com/Player/Cooper-Flagg-46129443/), Cooper Flagg is the highest ranked basketball recruit in the United States. [He was the youngest player to ever win the USA Basketball Male Athlete of the Year in 2022.](https://www.si.com/college/duke/recruiting/duke-basketball-recruiting-target-national-honor) [Fansided](https://hoopshabit.com/2023/09/03/meet-cooper-flagg-best-american-prospect/) even made the bold claim that Flagg is the best American recruit since LeBron James, and [the King himself is known to be following Flagg's career.](https://www.nbcboston.com/news/sports/nba/who-is-cooper-flagg-meet-the-next-great-nba-draft-prospect/3087165/)\n\nHowever, [others are skeptical](https://youtu.be/nAyv_M_t9og) of putting much stock into high school players. There have been many players hyped up in high school that failed to even become NBA All-Stars such as OJ Mayo, Greg Oden and Kwame Brown.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-12-17T00:55:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2060-01-01T17:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame announces Cooper Flagg's induction before January 1, 2060. Otherwise, it will resolve as No.",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19408",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.26",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "19397",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will Derrick Rose make the Hall of Fame?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19397.",
                    "background": "[As of 10/14/23, every player who has been selected NBA MVP has eventually been elected to the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Most_Valuable_Player_Award). [It is considered very likely that LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry, Russell Westbrook, James Harden, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid will all make the Hall of Fame.](https://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/hof_prob.html) However, Derrick Rose, the 2010-2011 MVP, is only assigned a 10% chance according to Basketball Reference.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-11-23T19:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2044-12-31T17:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve Yes if the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame announces, before January 1, 2040, that Derrick Rose has been selected for admission. If he is not, this question resolves negatively.",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19397",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.18",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "3812",
                "8403"
            ],
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "3812",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will Valve release a game before 2030 with 3 in the Title?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3812.",
                    "background": "The video game company valve has multiple franchises all ending with their number 2 game and it is well known joke in the gaming community that valve will never create a game with the number 3 in the title.\n\nFranchises that already are at the number 2: \"Half Life 2\", \"Portal 2\",\n\"Left 4 Dead 2\", \"Team Fortress 2\" and \"Dota 2\".",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2020-04-14T22:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2029-12-31T10:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positive if Valve releases before 2030-01-01 a game made by Valve that has \"3\" (or anything else that means 3) in its title. It resolves negative otherwise, including if Valve ceases operating.",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3812",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.4",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "8403",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "By 2050, will at least 25% of Year-End Billboard Hot 100 songs be primarily composed by AI?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8403.",
                    "background": "Artificial intelligence has made significant advances with the recent development of language models such as GPT-3. It is widely expected that artificial intelligence will become significantly more capable in the future, and some believe that artificial intelligence may someday surpass human ability in certain areas, or even in general intelligence.\n\nNeuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about the capabilities of AI in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the):\n\n>The worst hit will be artists like writers, painters, poets, and musicians, who will have to deal with a total saturation of artistic content by AI.  By 2050 much of the words you read and content you consume will be generated by an AI [...]",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2022-01-19T21:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2050-01-01T20:16:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if, for any year between 2021 to 2049 (inclusive), 25 or more of the [Year-End Billboard Hot 100 Songs](https://www.billboard.com/charts/year-end/hot-100-songs) are created primarily by AI. \"Created Primarily by AI\" for the purpose of this question will mean having significant influence on the song's melody, harmony, rhythm, instrumental timbre and tone, and EQ mixing.  Evidence for an AI's involvement can be provided by the song credits, statements by producers or publishers, and/or reputable media reports. If the Year-End Billboard Hot 100 Songs list does not exist through 2049, Metaculus Admins may select and announce a replacement source, or resolve ambiguously at their discretion",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8403",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.65",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "1625",
                "23749"
            ],
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "1625",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "By January 1, 2050, will it be possible to increase a healthy adult human's IQ by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1625.",
                    "background": "",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2018-12-16T23:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2050-01-01T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "Arguably the most important single difference between humans and all other life is the degree to which human intelligence allows for radically more complex forms of socialization, cooperation, activity and achievement. No other species in the universe (to our knowledge) has created the kind of complex civilization that humans have created, or anything close to it, and this is due to the large advantage that humans have acquired in intelligence.\n\nThe most widely-accepted tool for measuring human intelligence is the IQ test. The population average is fixed arbitrarily at 100, and the results of a population fit a Gaussian probability distribution, also known as a bell curve. Approximately two-thirds of the population score between one standard deviation below the mean and one standard deviation above the mean. About 2.5% of the population scores at or above two standard deviations above the mean, and 2.5% scores at or below two standard deviations below the mean. The difference in ability this represents is large. A person with an IQ two standard deviations below the mean is considered to have less than a 50% chance of graduating from high school, whereas a person with an IQ two standard deviations above the mean has a slightly higher IQ than the average holder of a Juris Doctor degree (an IQ of 126).\n\nPsychometricians generally regard IQ tests as having high statistical reliability and predictive validity.\n\nA high statistical reliability implies that although test-takers may have varying scores when taking the same test on differing occasions, and although they may have varying scores when taking different IQ tests at the same age, the scores generally agree with one another and across time. \n\nA high predictive validity implies that the results of the test provide you useful insights into the test-taker, and IQ scores are significantly correlated with a number of important life outcomes including job performance, academic achievement, likelihood of being out of the labor force more than one month out of the year, and many others. More information is available [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intelligence_quotient). \n\nBecause of the importance of human intelligence, it would arguably be highly valuable both to individuals and to humanity if it were possible to meaningfully increase it through some kind of intervention, whether medical, technological or otherwise.\n\n**By January 1, 2050, will it be possible to increase a healthy adult human's IQ by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days?**\n\nThis mean score is to be generated from three standardized IQ tests taken by a reliable test-taker giving their best effort using either the Raven's Progressive Matrices test or a similar non-verbal culture-fair test, with the post-intervention scores generated by the same method, and with the tests before and after intervention supervised and the results validated by at least three suitably qualified psychometricians independent of the persons or group responsible for the attempt.\n\nFurthermore, the test-taker must be independent of the group or individual responsible for developing or carrying out the attempt, and the test-taker must not be a professional psychometrician, professional quizzer, or have ever been involved in the design of intelligence or other psychometric tests.\n\nThe final test score must be obtained within 30 days of the commencement of whatever intervention is utilized in the attempt to increase the test-taker's score (in order to minimize the possibility of an individual achieving such a large score increase through extensive training and practice).\n\nFinally, the mean score for the test subject cannot initially be 2.5 standard deviations above the mean or higher, as it is unclear how reliable the IQ test is for scores above the +4.5 sigma range (i.e. after a 2 standard deviation increase on a 15 SD scale), given that these scores are exceptionally rare.  Nor may the test subject initially score under 1 standard deviation of the United States mean score.\n\nThis question will resolve positively if by January 1, 2050, \n\n- *30 healthy adult humans* under the age of 65 have their IQ scores increased by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days, relative to their previous mean score generated *from 3 separate tests*, or\n\n- *100 healthy adult humans* under the age of 65 have their IQ scores increased by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days, relative to their previous mean score generated *from 2 separate tests*, or\n\n- *200 healthy adult humans* under the age of 65 have their IQ scores increased by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days, relative to their previous mean score generated *from 1 separate test*.",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1625",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.059000000000000004",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "23749",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will an anthropomorphic robot with artificial intelligence win in a football (soccer) penalty shootout against a professional human player before January 1, 2035?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/23749.",
                    "background": "Artificial intelligence has already beaten humans in games such as chess ([Deep Blue PC, 1997](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0004370201001291)), Go ([AlphaGo description](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature24270)) or Texas Hold'em ([Libratus AI](https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aao1733)). However, all these games are logical or intellectual. They do not require special mechanisms to interact with other objects, such as a ball in football. There are already prototypes of humanoid robots that demonstrate the skills of playing football ([NewScientist](https://www.newscientist.com/article/2426328-watch-mini-humanoid-robots-showing-off-their-football-skills/)). The question is whether in about 10 years this area will be able to progress in such a way as to create a humanoid capable of playing football as a human as a goalkeeper or striker.\n\nSee also Metaculus: [When will robots win a game of association football (soccer) against professional human players?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19930/robots-beat-humans-in-football/)",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-05-25T11:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2034-12-30T10:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "For a positive outcome, a video must be released before January 1, 2035, showing an anthropomorphic robot defeating a professional human football player in a 1-on-1 football penalty shootout by either: \n\n1. the robot acting as a striker who takes a penalty kick.\n\n1. the robot acting as a goalkeeper.\n\nA negative outcome assumes that the event described above did not occur.\nThe deadline for this criterion is January 1, 2035.",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/23749",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.75",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "25720",
                "10436"
            ],
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "25720",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Before 2030, will citizen science initiatives to collect plant phenomic/genomic data across the globe receive at least $10 million in investment?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/25720.",
                    "background": "Describing and cataloging plant species worldwide, and especially in less developed countries, often encounters bureaucratic obstacles with permits, funding and visas. An alternative is to train local residents, especially students, in how to perform the technical tasks required, so they can contribute data about their home regions. That, however, requires funding; will it happen in the next five years?\n\nSee Also \n\nProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences: [Data-driven approaches can harness crop diversity to address heterogeneous needs for breeding products](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10083534/)\n\nNature Ecology & Evolution: [Citizen science plant observations encode global trait patterns](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41559-022-01904-x)\n\nScience Advances: [The commonness of rarity: Global and future distribution of rarity across land plants](https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aaz0414)",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-07-03T15:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2029-06-30T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "The question resolves as **Yes** if:\n\n* there are initiatives to involve ordinary people in collecting scientific data about plants in their local area;\n* these initiatives cover at least 30 countries in the Africa, Asia/Pacific and Latin America/Caribbean regions, with at least 4 countries in each of them;\n* in total, these initiatives receive at least $10 million in monetary investments.",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/25720",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.5",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "10436",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will a massive solar storm occur before 2050?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10436.",
                    "background": "By virtue of their rarity, extreme space weather events - **massive solar storms**, such as the [Carrington event](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2002JA009504) of 1859, are difficult to study, their rates of occurrence are difficult to estimate, and prediction of a specific future event is virtually impossible. According to [this study](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2011SW000734), the probability of another Carrington event (based on Dst < \u2212850 nT) occurring within the next decade is \u223c12%. It has been suggested that a geomagnetic storm on the scale of the solar storm of 1859 today would cause billions or even trillions of dollars of damage to satellites, power grids and radio communications, and could cause electrical blackouts on a massive scale that might not be repaired for weeks, months, or even years. Such sudden electrical blackouts may threaten food production.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2022-05-24T21:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2049-12-31T23:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolves as **Yes** if the [Disturbance Storm Time index](https://wdc.kugi.kyoto-u.ac.jp/dstdir/index.html) reaches less than -850 nT (the Carrington event reached between -1600 and -1760 nT) before January 1, 2050.",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10436",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.30000000000000004",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "16469",
                "16011"
            ],
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "16469",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will Meghan Markle's book be reported to have outsold Prince Harry's \"Spare\" within a year after its publication?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/16469.",
                    "background": "Meghan Markle, the Duchess of Sussex, is a former actress, activist, and author who married Prince Harry in 2018. She and her husband stepped back from their roles as senior members of the British royal family in 2020 and moved to California, where they have pursued various media projects and philanthropic endeavors. Markle has written a children\u2019s book called The Bench, which was published in 2021 and became a New York Times bestseller. She has also hinted at writing another book, which some sources claim will be a memoir based on her secret diaries.\n\nPrince Harry, the Duke of Sussex, is the younger son of Prince Charles and the late Princess Diana. He served in the British Army for 10 years and founded several charitable initiatives, such as the Invictus Games and Sentebale. He also co-created Archewell, a foundation that encompasses his and his wife\u2019s media and philanthropic work. He published his memoir *Spare* in 2023, which detailed his life as a royal, his military service, his mental health struggles, his marriage to Markle, and his decision to leave the royal family. The book was a global sensation and sold over 3.2 million copies worldwide in the first week of publication, making it the fastest-selling non-fiction book of all time.\n\nBoth Markle and Harry have been the subject of intense public scrutiny and media attention, especially after their explosive interview with Oprah Winfrey in 2021, where they made several allegations against the royal family and the British press. Their popularity and controversy have fueled interest in their books, which offer their personal perspectives on their lives and experiences.\n\nThis question asks whether Markle\u2019s upcoming book will sell more copies than Harry\u2019s *Spare* in the first year of publication. It is based on the assumption that Markle will release a nonfiction, non-children\u2019s book of which she is the claimed lead author by Feburary 1, 2026.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-04-29T16:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2027-02-01T00:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve positively or negatively *only* if credible sources report that Meghan Markle's upcoming book has outsold, or has not sold as many, copies as Harry's *Spare*. If there is no credible-source reporting making it unambiguously clear which book has sold more copies within a year after Markle's book is released, then this question will resolve ambiguously. It will also resolve ambiguously if Markle does not release a nonfiction, non-children's book of which she is the credited lead author by Feburary 1, 2026.\n\nSales may include hardcover, paperback, ebook, and audiobook editions, as well as additional editions, as long as they are marketed primarily as instances of the same book and their overall text content is mostly substantially identical. It is not possible to specify exactly which metric will be used as reliable figures are not publicly available, however, figures **must** be worldwide in nature or at least representative of a broad worldwide sample of markets, not merely one country or (for example) a set of exclusively English-speaking countries. Metaculus admins will use their best judgment to resolve the question based on available information.",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/16469",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.25",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "16011",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will a Star Trek and Star Wars crossover movie or TV show be made before 2060?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/16011.",
                    "background": "[Comparison of Star Trek and Star Wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparison_of_Star_Trek_and_Star_Wars) is one of the largest topics of conversation among the science fiction fan base. Which of the two franchises is better is frequently debated among fans, and the two have a fair degree of influence on each other. The idea of a crossover film or TV program between the two franchises has been proposed since the first Star Wars film was released in 1977. Despite this, no such media has ever been produced.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-04-22T13:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2060-01-01T04:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if a feature-length film or TV/streaming series is released before January 1, 2060, in which established characters of the Star Wars and Star Trek franchises interact. If such media also includes newly-created characters and/or characters from other franchises, this question will still resolve as **Yes** if the interaction between established Star Wars and Star Trek characters plays a role in driving the plot, according to the discretion of Metaculus admins. If this does not occur before the resolution date, this question resolves as **No**.",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/16011",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.25",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "10325",
                "15370"
            ],
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "10325",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will the International Court of Justice rule before 2040 that Russia must pay reparations to Ukraine?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10325.",
                    "background": "The ICJ has issued an [injunction](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/16/un-court-orders-russia-to-cease-military-operations-in-ukraine) calling on Russia to withdraw. A legal expert [has suggested](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/war-crimes-charges-wouldnt-scare-putin/2022/03/11/f00d6ada-a150-11ec-9438-255709b6cddc_story.html) that such an injunction could lead to a determination that Russia must pay reparations to the ICJ.\n\nUkraine has indicated they are at least [considering](https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-polytics/3431749-icj-to-consider-issue-of-russian-reparations-to-ukraine.html) pursuing Russia for reparations. This wouldn't be unprecedented. In February 2022, the ICJ [ordered Uganda](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/9/un-court-orders-uganda-to-pay-325m-in-reparations-to-dr-congo) to pay reparations to the Democratic Republic of the Congo.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-09-27T19:25:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2039-12-31T11:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if credible news sources report that the International Court of Justice (ICJ) has ordered Russia to pay reparations to Ukraine or if this is listed on the [ICJ website](https://www.icj-cij.org/home). Reparations don't need to be paid for this question to resolved positively; there must only be an order from ICJ to pay them.",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10325",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.7000000000000001",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "15370",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will the United States score in the bottom 50% for academic freedom in 2025 (according to the AFI)?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15370.",
                    "background": "The [Academic Freedom Index (AFI)](https://academic-freedom-index.net/) is a comprehensive and widely recognized tool for assessing de facto levels of academic freedom across the world. The AFI evaluates five key indicators of academic freedom, including the freedom to research and teach, freedom of academic exchange and dissemination, institutional autonomy, campus integrity, and freedom of academic and cultural expression. The index currently covers 179 countries and territories, and is considered the most comprehensive dataset available on the subject of academic freedom. The index employs a methodology that includes assessments by 2,197 country experts, standardized questionnaires, and a well-established statistical model, implemented and adapted by the [V-Dem project](https://v-dem.net/). The 2023 report (of the period up to December 2022) places the United States of the America in the Top 40-50% bracket (pg. 2-3) and outlines the following threats to academic freedom: \n\n> China, India, the United States of America and Mexico are among the most populous countries where academic freedom has significantly fallen back over the past decade. These developments have occurred in different political settings and do not all follow the same pattern.\n\n> The United States of America presents a different picture. **After a long period of relatively high academic freedom levels, four out of five indicators visibly declined in 2021** \u2013 the year after President Donald Trump, who repeatedly made statements highly critical of science and academia, was voted out of office. Although some federal actions detrimental to academic freedom were taken during his administration, educational matters in the USA are largely regulated by individual states, which have increasingly used their authority to interfere in academic affairs since 2021. At least nine states, all Republican-led, have adopted bills that ban the teaching of concepts related to \u201ccritical race theory\u201d in higher education institutions. Several states are also targeting tenure in public universities, adding to the already precarious status of academic employment. Some states now also allow students to record class lectures without the professor\u2019s consent. Furthermore, influential conservative groups are lobbying state legislatures to withdraw funding from scientific fields such as gender, minority studies, and environmental science, and various groups are maintaining public \u201cwatchlists\u201d of professors perceived as radical leftists. Despite efforts to polarize and intimidate, AFI data on academics\u2019 freedom of expression indicates that scholars in the USA remain able to publically voice their expertise, even on politically salient issues.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-03-06T21:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-12-31T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as a **Yes** if the United States of America is ranked in the bottom 50% for academic freedom in 2025, which includes the following brackets: Bottom 10%, Bottom 10-20%, Bottom 20-30%, Bottom 30-40%, and Bottom 40-50%, according to the [Academic Freedom Index.](https://academic-freedom-index.net/)\n\nThis question will resolve as a **No** if the United States of America is ranked in the top 40-50% or higher on the Academic Freedom Index for the year 2025.\n\nThis question will resolve as ambiguous if the Academic Freedom Index is no longer published, if the AFI does not report data for the year 2025 (but does report data for 2026 or later), or if the AFI does not report the 2025 data by December 31, 2028.",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15370",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.5",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "3507",
                "8601"
            ],
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "3507",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will EQRx get at least one drug approved by the FDA before the end of 2030?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3507.",
                    "background": "",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2020-01-21T23:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2026-02-23T23:34:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "From [this Chemical and Engineering News article](https://cen.acs.org/pharmaceuticals/EQRx-launches-developdrugs-steep-discount/98/web/2020/01):\n\n> Venture capitalist and serial entrepreneur Alexis Borisy has founded EQRx to develop equal or better versions of innovative medicines\u2014often called me-too drugs\u2014and sell them at a substantial discount to competing therapies. With an initial investment of $200 million from a syndicate of investors, the biotech firm plans to put 10 new, more affordable drugs on the market in the next decade.\n\nHe plans to do that unsing *technology* (ibid.):\n\n> \u201cToday, you can do a virtual screen of a billion compounds, do on-demand synthesis of all of those, and you can do it overnight in the cloud.\u201d\n\n> Once a molecule is made, Borisy points to the potential to analyze reams of clinical data to design efficient studies that can prove a drug\u2019s value to government groups and payers.\n\n> Combined, these technological efficiencies could bring down the cost of getting a drug onto the market\u2014often cited as between $2 billion and $3 billion\u2014by an order of magnitude, Borisy says. If EQRx spends, on average, $300 million to $400 million per drug, he believes the biotech firm can still be \u201cvery profitable,\u201d even as it offers its medicines at a significant discount.\n\nA [Stat article](https://www.statnews.com/2020/01/12/venture-capitalist-alexis-borisy-bring-down-drug-prices/) has this to say about EQRx's plan:\n\n> Quite simply, Borisy is going to invent and develop new drugs, and sell them for less money than the competition. He calls this \u201ca radical proposition.\u201d In any other sector, it would just be called \u201cbusiness.\u201d\n\nTo offer some counterweight, Derek Lowe (who writes probably the most famous and oldest chemistry blog, and has been working in drug discovery for decades) [has this to say](https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/01/15/eqrxs-challenge-and-my-challenge-to-them):\n\n> No, in case you were wondering, you cannot virtually screen a billion compounds overnight.\n\n> no, you cannot do \u201con-demand synthesis of all of those\u201d, either.\n\n> I will put up $500 dollars on LongBets.com against the proposition that EQRx will produce ten drugs in the next ten years.\n\nWe will ask here about a much less ambitious goal: **Will EQRx get at least one new drug approved by the FDA before the end of 2030?**\n\nIf EQRx ceases to exist before 2031, this resolves negative. Exception: if the company gets bought / merges with another before it has had a drug approved by the FDA, any drug that clearly originated in EQRx and gets approved before the deadline counts.",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3507",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.37",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "8601",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will a small molecule GLP-1-based drug be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2029?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8601.",
                    "background": "Pharmaceutical researchers have recently made progress in weight-loss management with the development of [Semaglutide](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semaglutide) which has demonstrated [15](http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2032183)-[18](https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2021.3224)% weight loss in subjects.  Side effects are relatively minor, and it is administered as a once-per-week injection.\n\nUltimately, non-protein \u201csmall molecule\u201d drugs that activate GLP-1 receptors may offer advantages over proteins like semaglutide. These advantages include potentially lower cost of production in less specialized facilities, good oral availability, and longer shelf-life. In June of 2020, Pfizer presented [promising results](https://doi.org/10.2337/db20-353-OR) from a phase 1 trial of a small molecule GLP-1 receptor activator, PF-06882961, in people with type 2 diabetes. Over 28 days of treatment, the drug substantially improved blood glucose control and reduced body weight by 2-9%, depending on dose. Novo Nordisk may be [working in the area](https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0605701104) as well.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2021-11-24T06:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2029-01-01T17:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if either the US Food and Drug Administration or the European Medicines Agency approve a small-molecule GLP-1-based drug for the purpose of weight loss by 2029-01-01.\n\n\u201cSmall molecule GLP-1-based drug\u201d is defined here as a drug that is not based on a protein and is intended to act on the GLP-1 receptor as its primary biological target, or as a major biological target.  For context, all drugs with current (2021) regulatory approval that target the GLP-1 system are based on proteins",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8601",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.597",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "10393",
                "26360"
            ],
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "10393",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "If World War 3 happens before 2060, will the US and India be on the same side?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10393.",
                    "background": "In World War 1 & 2, India was under the rule of the British Crown, as part of the British Raj. As a result, it joined the wars [on the side](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Army_during_World_War_I) [of the allies](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/India_in_World_War_II).\n\nRecently, some have speculated that there may be another world war, possibly rising from Russian aggression in Eastern Europe, or from a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. If another world war occurs, will India and the United States once again be on the same side?",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2022-03-25T07:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2052-05-31T07:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "For the purpose of this question, the following clarifications are given:\n\n* The government of India during World War 3 is considered to be whatever government had _de facto_ control over New Delhi prior to the outbreak of the war. If the starting date of World War 3 is in dispute, then it refers to January 1st of the year 3 years prior to the first time time it is understood that the world is in a state of \"world war\" (see the last point for a clarification of this condition).\n\n* The government of the United States is defined similarly to the way the government of India is defined. That is, the US government is whatever government had _de facto_ control over Washington D.C. prior to the outbreak of World War 3.\n\n* Two governments are said to be \"on the same side\" of a conflict if they regularly give aid and comfort to each other, actively fight a common enemy, or have formal treaties of alliance with each other, which are widely recognized to be valid.\n\n* A \"great power\" is a nation that ranks within the top ten nations by military spending, in nominal dollars, according to a reputable organization. These figures will ideally be decided by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, or if that organization ceases to exist, the International Institute for Strategic Studies. If both organizations either cease to exist or stop publishing figures on military spending, Metaculus admins will use their discretion to decide which organization to refer to.\n\n* The world is said to be in a state of \"world war\" if ANY of the following become true within a three year period, starting on January 1st of a particular year: (1) at least five great powers are all engaged in a direct, confrontational (non-proxy) war, with at least one great power on the other side of the other great powers (2) at least ten million people across at least three continents have died in conflicts that are widely considered to be related to one another, according to the United Nations, or another reputable international body as determined by Metaculus admins (a single localized civil war or genocide will not count), (3) at least one nuclear weapon has non-accidentally been deployed and used in wartime by a great power, in the course of a conflict, against another great power.\n\n* World War 3 is the next world war to occur after World War 2.\n\nThis question resolves ambiguously in the case that World War 3 did not occur before 2060. It resolves positively if the governments of the United States and India are on the same side during that war, and negatively if they are on opposite sides. It also resolves ambiguously if one or both parties are not significant players in World War 3",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10393",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.74",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "26360",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Five years after AGI, will there have been a World War III?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26360.",
                    "background": "[World War I](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_I) was a global war originating in Europe that lasted from 28 July 1914 to 11 November 1918. One of the deadliest conflicts in history, an estimated 9 million combatants and 7 million civilians died as a direct result of the war.\n\n[World War II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II) was a global war that lasted from 1939 to 1945. A state of total war emerged, directly involving more than 100 million people from over 30 countries. World War II was the deadliest conflict in human history, marked by 50 to 85 million fatalities, most of whom were civilians in China or the Soviet Union. It included massacres, the genocide of the Holocaust, strategic bombing, premeditated death from starvation and disease, and the only historical use of nuclear weapons in war.\n\n[World War III](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_III) is the name given to a hypothetical third worldwide military conflict. The name has been in use since at least as early as 1941. Some have applied it loosely to refer to limited or smaller conflicts such as the Cold War or the War on Terror, while others have operated under the assumption that such a conflict would surpass both prior world wars in both scope and destructiveness.\n\nAs of 2024, World War III has not happened. There have, however, been a number of [close calls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_III#Historical_close_calls) that are widely regarded as having been narrowly-missed, possible catalysts for such a conflict.\n\nMeanwhile, some experts have warned that AGI could bring military instability, for example, through nuclear deterrence [being undermined](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26286/5y-after-agi-nuclear-deterrence-undermined/), or through a [multipolar](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18042/ai-singleton-or-multipolar/) bargaining failure:\n\n> Early AGIs might fail to make compatible demands with each other in high-stakes negotiations (we call this a \u201cbargaining failure\u201d). Bargaining failures can have catastrophic consequences, including great power conflicts, or AI triggering a [flash war](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LpM3EAakwYdS6aRKf/what-multipolar-failure-looks-like-and-robust-agent-agnostic#Flash_wars). [\u2014Mac\u00e9, DiGiovanni and Clifton, 2024](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uGfDx9es2pnYWaWJr/individually-incentivized-safe-pareto-improvements-in-open#Introduction)\n\nIn 1949, after the unleashing of nuclear weaponry at the end of WWII, physicist Albert Einstein suggested that any outcome of a possible WWIII would be so dire as to revert mankind back to the Stone Age. When asked by journalist Alfred Werner what types of weapons Einstein believed World War III might be fought with, Einstein warned, \u201cI know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.\u201d\n\n(H/T @Jgalt for writing the \u201c[Will there be a \"World War Three\" before 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/world-war-three-before-2050/)\u201d question, from which this one was adapted.)",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-07-22T17:30:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2036-01-01T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any time before the day 5 years after our \u201c[When will artificial general intelligence (AGI) arrive?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/)\u201d question resolves, both of these conditions are true:\n\n1) There is a military conflict involving countries representing, in totality, either at least 30% of world GDP (in PPP), or at least 50% of world population, in any year in which the conflict is ongoing. A country is said to be \u201cinvolved\u201d if it satisfies either of the following:\n\n* Credible reports indicate that the country has experienced at least 1,000 combined civilian or military deaths directly attributed to combat in the war (not including indirect deaths such as via famine).\n* Credible reports indicate that the country has directly caused at least 1,000 combined civilian or military deaths directly attributed to combat operations it has conducted as part of the war.\n\n2) At least 10 million people\u2014civilians or military personnel\u2014have been killed in the conflict.",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26360",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.15",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "5768",
                "8556"
            ],
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "5768",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will any senior executives of these major public companies be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5768.",
                    "background": "In 2006 [Jeffrey Skilling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffrey_Skilling) was imprisoned for 12 years for his part in the [Enron scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enron_scandal). \n\nSince then, there have been very few high profile convictions of corporate bad-actors. (Much ink was spilled over the lack of convictions of bankers during for the [2007-2008 financial crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008))\n\nThere have been prison terms for some more junior employees. [Tom Hayes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Hayes_(trader)) was imprisoned for his part of the [LIBOR fixing scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libor_scandal) although generally executives have escaped sanctions:\n\nThere are currently outstanding warrants for Wirecard executives, and a former [VW CEO is faces charges of fraud in court](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_emissions_scandal#Charges_against_Volkswagen_engineering/management).  (His imprisonment would result in this question resolving positive)",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2021-01-13T03:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2026-01-01T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if any senior executive (current or former) is convicted of crimes relating to actions taken in a corporate capacity (ie ignoring crimes committed which are unrelated to their companies and crimes committed for their own benefit at the expense of their employer (eg insider trading)), and their prison sentence begins between January 1, 2021 to January 1, 2026.\n\nSenior executives are those executives and directors who are named on official filings to their respective stock exchanges.\n\nAn executive will be eigible in this question if they are employed by a company that was listed in any of these major indicies at any time in 2021 or later, even if subsequently delisted:\n\n* S&P500\n* FTSE100\n* DAX40\n* CAC40\n* FTSE MIB\n* Nikkei 22",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5768",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.35000000000000003",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "8556",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will over half of the US Senate be women in 2050?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8556.",
                    "background": "Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel predicted the following about women in the US in the year 2050 in a [blog post](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the) published August 25, 2021:\n\n>By 2050 there will be near-domination of society and the economy by women. [...] Just as the invention of the teenager as a consumer category reshaped popular culture, the ever increasing rise of independent women with disposable income will reshape society, from what entertainment is produced to who is an **elected official.**\n\nAccording to the [Pew Research Center, describing the 117th Congress](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2021/01/15/a-record-number-of-women-are-serving-in-the-117th-congress/)\n\n>In the Senate, women hold 24 of 100 seats, one fewer than the record number of seats they held in the last Congress.\n\nHattie Caraway became the [first woman elected to the US Senate](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Women_in_the_United_States_Senate) in 1931, though women remained under 10% of the senate membership until 2001.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2022-01-19T21:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2049-12-31T19:42:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if, on January 1, 2050, more than half of US Senators publicly identify as women",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8556",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.21",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "20767",
                "25720"
            ],
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "20767",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will the Detroit Pistons change their name by 2055?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20767.",
                    "background": "The [Detroit Pistons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Detroit_Pistons) started as the \"Fort Wayne Zollner Pistons\", a semi-professional team in 1937 in Indiana. The founder, [Fred Zollner](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fred_Zollner), had a foundry that made piston engines in Fort Wayne, Indiana. In 1948, the team became the \"Fort Wayne Pistons\" when they joined the Basketball Association of America (BAA). In 1949, Zollner brokered the formation of the National Basketball Association from merger of the BAA and National Basketball League. In 1957, Zollner moved his team to Detroit, as his team was unable to generate enough revenue in Fort Wayne's small market. Zollner retained the \"Pistons\" name as it was still apt - Detroit was considered then as the center of the automotive industry.\n\n[There is currently a transition to electric vehicles](https://www.iea.org/energy-system/transport/electric-vehicles) where many observers expect it to completely displace internal combustion engines in the next few decades. Electric vehicles do not use pistons in propulsion. Hydrogen vehicles also do not.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-01-25T19:55:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2055-01-01T20:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question positively resolves if the Detroit Pistons change their team nickname, non-trivially and as reported by official team news reports, before January 1st, 2055.\n\nIf the Detroit Pistons move their team to another city, the question remains unresolved so long as the team nickname remains the Pistons.",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20767",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.09",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "25720",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Before 2030, will citizen science initiatives to collect plant phenomic/genomic data across the globe receive at least $10 million in investment?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/25720.",
                    "background": "Describing and cataloging plant species worldwide, and especially in less developed countries, often encounters bureaucratic obstacles with permits, funding and visas. An alternative is to train local residents, especially students, in how to perform the technical tasks required, so they can contribute data about their home regions. That, however, requires funding; will it happen in the next five years?\n\nSee Also \n\nProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences: [Data-driven approaches can harness crop diversity to address heterogeneous needs for breeding products](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10083534/)\n\nNature Ecology & Evolution: [Citizen science plant observations encode global trait patterns](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41559-022-01904-x)\n\nScience Advances: [The commonness of rarity: Global and future distribution of rarity across land plants](https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aaz0414)",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-07-03T15:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2029-06-30T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "The question resolves as **Yes** if:\n\n* there are initiatives to involve ordinary people in collecting scientific data about plants in their local area;\n* these initiatives cover at least 30 countries in the Africa, Asia/Pacific and Latin America/Caribbean regions, with at least 4 countries in each of them;\n* in total, these initiatives receive at least $10 million in monetary investments.",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/25720",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.5",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "3507",
                "29027"
            ],
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "3507",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will EQRx get at least one drug approved by the FDA before the end of 2030?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3507.",
                    "background": "",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2020-01-21T23:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2026-02-23T23:34:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "From [this Chemical and Engineering News article](https://cen.acs.org/pharmaceuticals/EQRx-launches-developdrugs-steep-discount/98/web/2020/01):\n\n> Venture capitalist and serial entrepreneur Alexis Borisy has founded EQRx to develop equal or better versions of innovative medicines\u2014often called me-too drugs\u2014and sell them at a substantial discount to competing therapies. With an initial investment of $200 million from a syndicate of investors, the biotech firm plans to put 10 new, more affordable drugs on the market in the next decade.\n\nHe plans to do that unsing *technology* (ibid.):\n\n> \u201cToday, you can do a virtual screen of a billion compounds, do on-demand synthesis of all of those, and you can do it overnight in the cloud.\u201d\n\n> Once a molecule is made, Borisy points to the potential to analyze reams of clinical data to design efficient studies that can prove a drug\u2019s value to government groups and payers.\n\n> Combined, these technological efficiencies could bring down the cost of getting a drug onto the market\u2014often cited as between $2 billion and $3 billion\u2014by an order of magnitude, Borisy says. If EQRx spends, on average, $300 million to $400 million per drug, he believes the biotech firm can still be \u201cvery profitable,\u201d even as it offers its medicines at a significant discount.\n\nA [Stat article](https://www.statnews.com/2020/01/12/venture-capitalist-alexis-borisy-bring-down-drug-prices/) has this to say about EQRx's plan:\n\n> Quite simply, Borisy is going to invent and develop new drugs, and sell them for less money than the competition. He calls this \u201ca radical proposition.\u201d In any other sector, it would just be called \u201cbusiness.\u201d\n\nTo offer some counterweight, Derek Lowe (who writes probably the most famous and oldest chemistry blog, and has been working in drug discovery for decades) [has this to say](https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/01/15/eqrxs-challenge-and-my-challenge-to-them):\n\n> No, in case you were wondering, you cannot virtually screen a billion compounds overnight.\n\n> no, you cannot do \u201con-demand synthesis of all of those\u201d, either.\n\n> I will put up $500 dollars on LongBets.com against the proposition that EQRx will produce ten drugs in the next ten years.\n\nWe will ask here about a much less ambitious goal: **Will EQRx get at least one new drug approved by the FDA before the end of 2030?**\n\nIf EQRx ceases to exist before 2031, this resolves negative. Exception: if the company gets bought / merges with another before it has had a drug approved by the FDA, any drug that clearly originated in EQRx and gets approved before the deadline counts.",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3507",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.37",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "29027",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will the World Health Organization designate a new COVID-19 Variant of Concern before July 1, 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/29027.",
                    "background": "The WHO tracks SARS-CoV-2 variants using [three main classifications](https://www.who.int/news-room/questions-and-answers/item/coronavirus-disease-(covid-19)-variants-of-sars-cov-2): \r\n\r\nA **Variant Under Monitoring (VUM)** is, according to WHO, one that may require prioritized attention and monitoring. The main objective of this category is to investigate if this variant (and others closely related to it) may pose an additional threat to global public health as compared to other circulating variants.\" At the time of this question, there were two VUMs: BA.2.86 and JN.1.\r\n\r\nA **Variant of Interest (VOI)** is a variant with changes that \"are known to affect how the virus behaves or its potential impact on human health. This can include, for example, its ability to spread, its ability to cause serious disease, or how easily it may be detected or treated.\" At the time of this question, there were 7 VOIs: JN.1.7 KP.2,\r\nKP.3, KP.3.1.1, JN.1.18, LB.1, and XEC.\r\n\r\nA **Variant of Concern (VOC)** is, according to the [working definition](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/updated-working-definitions-and-primary-actions-for--sars-cov-2-variants) last updated March 15, 2023:\r\n\r\n>A SARS-CoV-2 variant that meets the definition of a VOI (see above) and, through a risk assessment, conducted by WHO TAG-VE, and determined to be associated with a moderate or high level of confidence, meets at least one of the following criteria when compared with other variants:\r\n>\u2022 Detrimental change in clinical disease severity; OR\r\n>\u2022 Change in COVID-19 epidemiology causing substantial impact on the ability of health systems to provide care to patients with COVID-19 or other illnesses and therefore requiring major public health interventions; OR\r\n>\u2022 Significant decrease in the effectiveness of available vaccines in protecting against severe\r\ndisease.\r\n\r\nAt the time of this question, there are no currently circulating WHO-designated VOCs. Previously circulating VOCs (see archive [here](https://web.archive.org/web/20221005140711/https://www.who.int/activities/tracking-SARS-CoV-2-variants)) are:\r\n\r\n| WHO label | Pango lineage | GISAID clade | Nextstrain clade | Additional amino acid changes monitored | Earliest documented samples | Date of designation |\r\n| --------- | ------------- | ------------ | ---------------- | --------------------------------------- | -------------------------- | ------------------- |\r\n| **Alpha** | B.1.1.7       | GRY          | 20I (V1)         |                                         | United Kingdom, Sep-2020    | VOC: 18-Dec-2020 (Previous VOC: 09-Mar-2022) |\r\n| **Beta**  | B.1.351       | GH/501Y.V2   | 20H (V2)         |                                         | South Africa, May-2020      | VOC: 18-Dec-2020  (Previous VOC: 09-Mar-2022) |\r\n| **Gamma** | P.1           | GR/501Y.V3   | 20J (V3)         |                                         | Brazil, Nov-2020            | VOC: 11-Jan-2021 (Previous VOC: 09-Mar-2022) |\r\n| **Delta** | B.1.617.2     | G/478K.V1    | 21A, 21I, 21J    |                                         | India, Oct-2020             | VOI: 4-Apr-2021 (VOC: 11-May-2021)  (Previous VOC: 7-Jun-2022) |\r\n| **Omicron** | B.1.1.529   | GR/484A      | 21K, 21L, 21M, 22A, 22B, 22C, 22D | +S:R346K (+S:L452X) (+S:F486V) | Multiple countries, Nov-2021 | VUM: 24-Nov-2021 (VOC: 26-Nov-2021) |",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-10-24T16:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-06-30T04:01:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after October 21, 2024, and before July 1, 2025, the World Health Organization (WHO) adds a new SARS-CoV-2 variant to their list of Variants of Concern that was not previously identified as a VOC at any point, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) such as the WHO's [SARS-CoV-2 variants](https://www.who.int/en/activities/tracking-SARS-CoV-2-variants/) tracker page or its [COVID-19 Variants Dashboard](https://data.who.int/dashboards/covid19/variants).\r\n\r\nIf this does not occur before July 1, 2025, this question will resolve as **No**.",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/29027",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.02",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "29027",
                "3458"
            ],
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "29027",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will the World Health Organization designate a new COVID-19 Variant of Concern before July 1, 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/29027.",
                    "background": "The WHO tracks SARS-CoV-2 variants using [three main classifications](https://www.who.int/news-room/questions-and-answers/item/coronavirus-disease-(covid-19)-variants-of-sars-cov-2): \r\n\r\nA **Variant Under Monitoring (VUM)** is, according to WHO, one that may require prioritized attention and monitoring. The main objective of this category is to investigate if this variant (and others closely related to it) may pose an additional threat to global public health as compared to other circulating variants.\" At the time of this question, there were two VUMs: BA.2.86 and JN.1.\r\n\r\nA **Variant of Interest (VOI)** is a variant with changes that \"are known to affect how the virus behaves or its potential impact on human health. This can include, for example, its ability to spread, its ability to cause serious disease, or how easily it may be detected or treated.\" At the time of this question, there were 7 VOIs: JN.1.7 KP.2,\r\nKP.3, KP.3.1.1, JN.1.18, LB.1, and XEC.\r\n\r\nA **Variant of Concern (VOC)** is, according to the [working definition](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/updated-working-definitions-and-primary-actions-for--sars-cov-2-variants) last updated March 15, 2023:\r\n\r\n>A SARS-CoV-2 variant that meets the definition of a VOI (see above) and, through a risk assessment, conducted by WHO TAG-VE, and determined to be associated with a moderate or high level of confidence, meets at least one of the following criteria when compared with other variants:\r\n>\u2022 Detrimental change in clinical disease severity; OR\r\n>\u2022 Change in COVID-19 epidemiology causing substantial impact on the ability of health systems to provide care to patients with COVID-19 or other illnesses and therefore requiring major public health interventions; OR\r\n>\u2022 Significant decrease in the effectiveness of available vaccines in protecting against severe\r\ndisease.\r\n\r\nAt the time of this question, there are no currently circulating WHO-designated VOCs. Previously circulating VOCs (see archive [here](https://web.archive.org/web/20221005140711/https://www.who.int/activities/tracking-SARS-CoV-2-variants)) are:\r\n\r\n| WHO label | Pango lineage | GISAID clade | Nextstrain clade | Additional amino acid changes monitored | Earliest documented samples | Date of designation |\r\n| --------- | ------------- | ------------ | ---------------- | --------------------------------------- | -------------------------- | ------------------- |\r\n| **Alpha** | B.1.1.7       | GRY          | 20I (V1)         |                                         | United Kingdom, Sep-2020    | VOC: 18-Dec-2020 (Previous VOC: 09-Mar-2022) |\r\n| **Beta**  | B.1.351       | GH/501Y.V2   | 20H (V2)         |                                         | South Africa, May-2020      | VOC: 18-Dec-2020  (Previous VOC: 09-Mar-2022) |\r\n| **Gamma** | P.1           | GR/501Y.V3   | 20J (V3)         |                                         | Brazil, Nov-2020            | VOC: 11-Jan-2021 (Previous VOC: 09-Mar-2022) |\r\n| **Delta** | B.1.617.2     | G/478K.V1    | 21A, 21I, 21J    |                                         | India, Oct-2020             | VOI: 4-Apr-2021 (VOC: 11-May-2021)  (Previous VOC: 7-Jun-2022) |\r\n| **Omicron** | B.1.1.529   | GR/484A      | 21K, 21L, 21M, 22A, 22B, 22C, 22D | +S:R346K (+S:L452X) (+S:F486V) | Multiple countries, Nov-2021 | VUM: 24-Nov-2021 (VOC: 26-Nov-2021) |",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-10-24T16:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-06-30T04:01:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after October 21, 2024, and before July 1, 2025, the World Health Organization (WHO) adds a new SARS-CoV-2 variant to their list of Variants of Concern that was not previously identified as a VOC at any point, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) such as the WHO's [SARS-CoV-2 variants](https://www.who.int/en/activities/tracking-SARS-CoV-2-variants/) tracker page or its [COVID-19 Variants Dashboard](https://data.who.int/dashboards/covid19/variants).\r\n\r\nIf this does not occur before July 1, 2025, this question will resolve as **No**.",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/29027",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.02",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "3458",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will there be a culturally significant development in aging research by 2030?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3458.",
                    "background": "",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2020-01-12T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2030-01-01T07:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "In 2019, at a speech at the Foresight Institute, biomedical gerontologist Aubrey de Grey [stated](https://youtu.be/QmoYYewuw-c?t=660):\n\n> I think we are still 15-20 years away [from effective anti-aging therapies] but the anticipation of the therapy by the general public is coming soon, and it is that anticipation that is going to be the point when the shit really hits the fan. If you think about a situation in which less than five years from now [...] in a period of about a week, half of the developed world is going to shift from an expectation that they will live only slightly longer than their parents did, into an expectation that they're going to live far longer than anyone has ever lived.\n\nIf half of the people in the developed world came to believe within a period of a week that effective anti-aging therapies were imminent, this would likely be a culturally significant event, perhaps among the most significant in the 2020's.\n\nThis question resolves positively if any of the terms \"aging\", \"ageing\", \"anti-aging\", \"anti-ageing\", \"longevity\", \"lifespan\", \"rejuvenation\", or \"life extension\" are mentioned as a direct reference to longevity research\\* in any of the following media sources produced between January 1st 2020 and January 1st 2030 UTC:\n\n 1. The English Wikipedia's \"In the news\" [section](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:In_the_news).\n\n     or\n\n 2. History.com's summary of events for a year in the 2020's.\n\n     or\n\n 3. The transcript for a primary or general presidential election debate in America.\n\nIt also resolves positively if:\n\n 4. A longevity researcher receives Time's Person of the Year for their work on defeating aging.\n\nOtherwise, this question resolves negatively on the 1st of January 2030.\n\nIn case of positive resolution, this question retroactively closes 1 day before the triggering event.\n\n*ETA: 2022-04-08: qualifying primary or general presidential election debates are limited to mainstream debates (i.e., Republican and Democratic primaries + general election debates).*\n\n<small>\n\n\\* \"longevity research\" here means the research comes from a group whose explicit purpose (as defined by their charter, or their about page on their website, or by some official statement made by the organisation which pertains to their research ends) is to slow, halt, or reverse the natural aging process. Examples of research groups which meet this criteria are the SENS Research Foundation and The Sinclair Lab at Harvard.\n\n</small>",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3458",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.58",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "11175",
                "3244"
            ],
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "11175",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will AI be able to watch a movie and tell you accurately what is going on before 2030?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11175.",
                    "background": "On May 31st, 2022, prominent deep learning skeptic and NYU professor emeritus Gary Marcus [challenged Elon Musk to a bet on AGI by the end of 2029](https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things?s=r). His proposed bet consisted of 5 AI achievements, of which he predicted no more than 2 would come to pass before 2030. This question is about Marcus' first prediction,\n\n> In 2029, AI will not be able to watch a movie and tell you accurately what is going on (what I called the [comprehension challenge in The New Yorker](https://www.newyorker.com/tech/annals-of-technology/what-comes-after-the-turing-test), in 2014). Who are the characters? What are their conflicts and motivations? etc.\n\nFor this challenge, we will use the [MovieQA dataset](https://arxiv.org/abs/1512.02902) as an illustrative example of a benchmark that could trigger positive resolution,\n\n> The dataset consists of 14,944 questions about 408 movies with high semantic diversity. The questions range from simpler \"Who\" did \"What\" to \"Whom\", to \"Why\" and \"How\" certain events occurred. Each question comes with a set of five possible answers; a correct one and four deceiving answers provided by human annotators.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2022-06-05T07:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2030-01-01T08:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if, before January 1st 2030, a computer program is publicly and credibly documented to have achieved at least 90.0% accuracy or above the human baseline on a benchmark comparable to the [MovieQA dataset](https://arxiv.org/abs/1512.02902), when restricted to only watching the movies tested (rather than reading plots, subtitles, scripts, or human-provided transcriptions for the movies). Any candidate benchmark must provide difficult questions that test deep comprehension, including questions of how and why, rather than mere shallow pattern matching.\n\nImportantly, this means that any candidate computer program must _not_ have been given access to media that could have reasonably been expected to spoil the plot to any of these movies during its training (for example, the Wikipedia pages for these movies). The AI is allowed to be trained on other media, such as Project Gutenberg books. This restriction is merely intended to eliminate cheating, not to require any additional capabilities beyond what Gary Marcus specified.\n\nA simple way to prove that a candidate computer program did not cheat is by showing that all the data the AI was trained on was generated prior to when the movies were released. However, this is not the only way of proving that cheating did not occur.\n\nMetaculus admins will use their discretion in determining whether a candidate computer program met these criteria. This question will be **annulled** in the event that, in the judgment of Metaculus, comparable tests have not been conducted on potentially qualifying AI systems during the specified timeframe.",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11175",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.99",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "3244",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will Robert Caro's fifth and final volume of his Lyndon Johnson biography be published during his lifetime?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3244.",
                    "background": "American journalist and author [Robert A. Caro](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Caro) (born October 30, 1935) has for the last decades been working on _The Years of Lyndon Johnson_, a multi-volume biography of the former US President. The work is planned to consist of five volumes, the first four of which were published in 1982, 1990, 2002, 2012, respectively.\n\n[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Years_of_Lyndon_Johnson#Planned_book_five) summarizes the publication estimates given at various points since 2011:\n\n>In November 2011, Caro estimated that the fifth and final volume would require another two to three years to write. In March 2013, he affirmed a commitment to completing the series with a fifth volume. As of April 2014, he was continuing to research the book. In a televised interview with C-SPAN in May 2017, Caro confirmed over 400 typed pages as being complete, covering the period 1964\u201365; and that once he completes the section on Johnson's 1965 legislative achievements, he intends to move to Vietnam to continue the writing process.\n\n>In an interview with The New York Review of Books in January 2018, Caro said that he was writing about 1965 and 1966 and a non-chronological section about the relationship between Johnson and Bobby Kennedy. Asked if he still planned to visit Vietnam soon, Caro replied: \"Not yet, no. This is a very long book. And there's a lot to do before that's necessary. I'm getting close to it now.\" In December 2018, it was reported that Caro is still \"several years from finishing\" the volume.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2019-10-25T23:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2030-01-01T03:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Caro's fifth and final volume of _The Years of Lyndon Johnson_ becomes available for order (_not_ pre-order) on amazon.com while Caro is still alive.\n\nIf the fifth book is not intended to be the last, this question will resolve as **No** if the book intended to be the last one is not published during Caro's lifetime.  If it's unclear whether the fifth book is intended to be the last one, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous.*",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3244",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.48",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "25801",
                "19055"
            ],
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "25801",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will the world remain \"normal\" through 2030, according to specified criteria?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/25801.",
                    "background": "As of July 2, 2024, the questions had the following probabilities assessed by the Metaculus Community: \n\n- [Development of artificial general intelligence](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/) - Cumulative probability of 40% before 2030.\n\n- A [10% reduction in the human population](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/global-population-decline-10-by-2100/) - 36% chance of happening before 2100.\n\n- [Global GDP increases by 30% or more in one year](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5159/date-of-gwp-growth-over-130/) - 13% cumulative probability before 2030.\n\n- The [discovery of alien technosignatures](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1629/alien-technosignature-detection-by-2050/) - 3% chance of happening before 2050.\n\n- A [worldview-shattering explanation for UAPs (UFOs)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18075/shocking-uap-explanation-by-july-2028/) - 1.4% before July 22, 2028.\n\n- [World War III](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/world-war-three-before-2050/) - 25% chance before 2050.\n\n- A [nuclear weapon is detonated as an act of war](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4779/at-least-1-nuclear-detonation-in-war-by-2050/) - 23% before 2050.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-07-05T11:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2029-12-31T19:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if **none** of the following occur before January 1, 2030:\n\n- The **development of artificial general intelligence**, which will be considered to occur if the question *[When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/)* resolves to a date before January 1, 2030.\n- A **10% reduction in the human population**, which will be considered to occur if the question *[By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/global-population-decline-10-by-2100/)* resolves as Yes before January 1, 2030.\n- Global **GDP increases by 30% or more in one year**, which will be considered to occur if the question *[In which year will the world's real GDP first exceed 130% of its highest level from any previous year?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5159/date-of-gwp-growth-over-130/)* resolves to a date before January 1, 2030.\n- The **discovery of alien technosignatures**, which will be considered to occur if the question *[Will alien technosignatures be detected before 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1629/alien-technosignature-detection-by-2050/)* resolves as Yes before January 1, 2030.\n- A **worldview-shattering explanation for UAPs** becomes accepted, which will be considered to occur if the question *[Will Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena have an ontologically-shocking explanation?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18075/shocking-uap-explanation-by-july-2028/)* resolves as **Yes**.\n - **World War III**, which will be considered to occur if the question *[Will there be a \"World War Three\" before 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/world-war-three-before-2050/)* resolves as **Yes** before January 1, 2030.\n- A **nuclear weapon is detonated as an act of war**, which will be considered to occur if the question *[Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4779/at-least-1-nuclear-detonation-in-war-by-2050/)* resolves as **Yes** before January 1, 2030.\n\nThis question will resolve as **No** (meaning this is no longer a \"normal\" world) if one or more of the above Metaculus questions has positively resolved before January 1, 2030.",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/25801",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.5",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "19055",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will Russia purchase an American weapons system before 2050?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19055.",
                    "background": "Weapons sales from one country to another are often a useful indicator of positive geopolitical ties between those two nations. The logic behind this is that nations won't export weapons to other countries which visibly seek to compete with them militarily. For example, European NATO states make [extensive purchases](https://www.statista.com/statistics/248552/us-arms-exports-by-country/) of American weapons due to the United States's dominant position in the alliance. Likewise, Russian-allied countries such as Belarus and Kazakhstan [rely heavily](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1102702/countries-where-russia-is-a-major-arms-supplier/) on weapons imports from Russia to maintain their armed forces. \n\nIn the context of Russian-American relations, Russia purchasing American weapons systems would indicate the United States' strategic interests aligning more with those of Russia than they currently do, and vice versa. Moreover, it would indicate improvements in geopolitical ties between these two countries. This could occur as a result of changes in the political landscape of either country, external threats posed to both nations, or a number of other things.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-09-27T18:44:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2050-01-01T04:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2050, credible sources report that the Russian Federation has placed an order for a US-made weapons system *and* that this order has been approved by the [US Department of State](https://www.state.gov/u-s-arms-sales-and-defense-trade/#:~:text=Sales%20are%20approved%20following%20U.S.,support%20being%20offered%20for%20delivery.), or through whatever other legal means necessary to approve American weapons sales to foreign nations present at that time. Only the order will need to placed to resolve this question as Yes; the weapons system need not actually be delivered to Russia. The weapons system must be purchased directly from the United States, not through a intermediary/third country. Credible sources reporting that the United States has approved providing weapons systems to Russia free of charge will also resolve this question as Yes. If this does not occur before the resolution date, the question resolves as **No**.\n\nFor the purpose of this question, the following are included in the definition of \"weapons system\":\n\n- Tanks\n- Armored fighting vehicles\n- Towed artillery\n- Self-propelled artillery\n- Rocket artillery\n- Surface-to-air missile systems\n- Military radars\n- Fighter and multi-role aircraft\n- Attack/bomber aircraft\n- Military helicopters\n- Combat drones/UCAVs\n- AWACS\n- Aerial refueling aircraft\n- Other aircraft intended solely for military use\n- Aircraft carriers\n- Naval destroyers\n- Cruisers\n- Frigates\n- Corvettes\n- Submarines\n- Guided missiles/launchers\n- Weapons of mass destruction\n- Any ammunition or components made to be used specifically by an American-produced version of the above\n\nMetaculus moderators may use their discretion to determine if a particular American export to Russia falls into the above categories or otherwise has no practical application outside a military setting, such that it must be considered a weapons system.",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19055",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.1",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "9532",
                "1536"
            ],
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "9532",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will China be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9532.",
                    "background": "Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of [several previous Metaculus questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&search=Embryo%20selection) and a [notebook](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/9247/polygenic-selection-of-embryos/).  A [previous Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7925/china-and-designer-babies/) asked if most of the first 100 newborns selected for intelligence would be born in China.\n\n[Some commentators](https://www.edge.org/response-detail/23838) have suggested that China, which has a quickly growing [biotechnology industry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biotechnology_industry_in_China), will embrace embryo selection for intelligence.  The [Beijing Genomic Institute](https://www.vice.com/en/article/5gw8vn/chinas-taking-over-the-world-with-a-massive-genetic-engineering-program) had a [cognitive genomics project](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BGI_Group#Cognitive_Genomics_Project), though it was never completed.  In 2019, Chinese scientist He Jiankui created the world's first CRISPR babies, but the Chinese government [jailed him for three years](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-50944461).  Nevertheless, China has embraced [embryo selection for diseases](https://www.nature.com/articles/548272a) through preimplantation genetic diagnosis (PGD).  While polling on mainland China is [restricted](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_research_and_opinion_polling_in_China), a [2020 Pew poll](https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2020/12/10/biotechnology-research-viewed-with-caution-globally-but-most-support-gene-editing-for-babies-to-treat-disease/) found Taiwan and Singapore, which like China are mostly [Han](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Han_Chinese), have a relatively high level of support for \"changing a baby's characteristics\" to improve intelligence.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2022-01-26T05:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2040-01-01T05:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if China is the first country with over a million people to have more than 10% of its newborns developed from embryos selected for polygenic scores for intelligence, according to credible reports. If no country has >10% of its newborns selected for intelligence by 2300-01-01 it resolves as ambiguous.\n\nMoreover, for the question to resolve positively, the particular procedure used for embryo selection must, in expectation, result in an increase of at least 1/5 standard deviations in IQ (i.e. 3 IQ points), according to credible evidence",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9532",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.15",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "1536",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will a third LIGO detector be built in India before 2028?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1536.",
                    "background": "The [Laser Interferometer Gravitational Wave Observatory](https://www.ligo.caltech.edu/) (LIGO) has been responsible for some tremendously exciting science this decade.\n\n* On [September 14, 2015](https://www.ligo.caltech.edu/news/ligo20160211), LIGO detected (through gravitational waves) the merger of two black holes billions of light years away.\n* This triumph opened a new era of [gravitational wave astronomy](https://www.space.com/39162-gravitational-waves-new-era-of-astronomy-2017.html), giving us a radical new tool to probe the cosmos.\n* LIGO and friends (like VIRGO in Europe) have since seen other black hole mash-ups and even, amazingly, the smashing of [2 neutron stars](https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/10/16/557557544/astronomers-strike-gravitational-gold-in-colliding-neutron-stars).\n* The engineering required to make this observatory hop is [just ridiculous](http://www.kavlifoundation.org/how-ligo-works).\n\nHowever, per astrophysicist Ethan Siegel, LIGO [misses ~100,000 black hole mergers every year](https://medium.com/starts-with-a-bang/ligo-misses-100-000-black-hole-mergers-a-year-d3184f5d193a). Whoa! \n\nWe need backup, apparently!\n\nWell, help may soon be on the way, in the form of another LIGO detector under construction in India. [LIGO-India](http://www.gw-indigo.org/tiki-index.php?page=LIGO-India) \"is a planned advanced gravitational-wave observatory to be located in India as part of the worldwide network.\" Possible benefits include:\n\n> Adding a new detector to the existing network will increase the expected event rates, and will boost the detection confidence of new sources (by increasing the sensitivity, sky coverage and duty cycle of the network). But the dramatic improvement from LIGO-India would come in the ability of localizing GW sources in the sky. Sky-location of the GW sources is computed by combining data from geographically separated detectors ('aperture synthesis'). Adding a new detector in India, geographically well separated from the existing LIGO-Virgo detector array, will dramatically improve the source-localization accuracies (5 to 10 times), thus enabling us to use GW observations as an excellent astronomical tool.\n\nLIGO-India is set to be built [by 2025](https://www.thehindu.com/sci-tech/technology/a-new-ligo-gravitational-wave-detector-to-be-built-in-india-by-2025/article22149855.ece). That's 2 years before our question's deadline. But delays on massive science projects happen with some frequency. (Ahem, [Elon Musk](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/innovations/wp/2018/06/06/elon-musk-has-been-missing-deadlines-since-he-was-a-kid/). Ahem, [James Webb Telescope](https://www.space.com/41016-nasa-delays-james-webb-space-telescope-2021.html).)",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2018-11-08T05:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2028-01-01T05:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if LIGO-India's observatory becomes operational (defined taking test data demonstrating a sensitivity within a factor of 10 of the instrument's specified sensitivity) at any point before January 1, 2028",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1536",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.28",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "26289",
                "26326"
            ],
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "26289",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Five years after AGI, will an AI Windfall Clause have been activated?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26289.",
                    "background": "In 2020, the Future of Humanity Institute ([RIP](https://static1.squarespace.com/static/660e95991cf0293c2463bcc8/t/661a3fc3cecceb2b8ffce80d/1712996303164/FHI+Final+Report.pdf)) published a report entitled \u201c[The Windfall Clause: Distributing the Benefits of AI for the Common Good.](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/Windfall-Clause-Report.pdf)\u201d. (They also wrote an [abridged version](https://arxiv.org/abs/1912.11595) for publishing in the [Proceedings of AIES](https://dl.acm.org/doi/abs/10.1145/3375627.3375842).) The Windfall Clause proposal expands on an idea from Nick Bostrom\u2019s _[Superintelligence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superintelligence:_Paths,_Dangers,_Strategies)_, which says that the company that develops [transformative AI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19356/transformative-ai-date/) could hugely raise the global standard of living, potentially achieving things like poverty eradication, by distributing a fraction of their profits.\n\nThere are some details still to be worked out with the proposal, but expert opinion is that these are unlikely to be blockers: what remains is for the leading AI companies to get on board.\n\n___\n\n(H/T @AABoyles for writing the \u201c[Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4061/will-any-major-ai-company-commit-to-an-ai-windfall-clause-by-2025/)\u201d question, from which this one was adapted.)",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-07-22T17:30:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2036-01-01T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, within five years of our \u201c[When will artificial general intelligence (AGI) arrive?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/)\u201d question resolving, an AI company activates a Windfall Clause. In order to count, the AI company must fit in one of these categories:\n\n* It is the leading AI company in the world, by valuation. To count, the company can be \u201cleading\u201d at any time in the five-year period. \n* It is at least 50% as large as the leading AI company at the time, by valuation. (If there is ambiguity over whether a company meets this 50% threshold, Metaculus admins will make a ruling.)\n\nThis question is conditional on humans not having gone extinct.\n\nFor the purposes of this question:\n\n* A Windfall Clause is any legally-binding agreement which caps profits resulting from a new technological innovation at any value less than 50% of [gross world product](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_world_product).\n* A company is considered to have \u201cactivated\u201d its Windfall Clause if it has distributed its profits in line with its Windfall Clause for a period of 12 months or longer, according to [credible](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) reporting. In the case that a company is above the 50% threshold at one point but then later falls below that (i.e., the company was counting for this question, and then stopped counting), this distribution of profits must start no more than 6 months after the company stopped counting. If there is ambiguity over whether either the 12-month or 6-month requirements have been met, Metaculus admins will make a ruling.\n\nAdmins will wait up to 18 months beyond the \u201cFive years after our \u2018[When will AGI arrive?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/)\u2019 question resolves\u201d date to determine this question\u2019s resolution, if needed.",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26289",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.05",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "26326",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Five years after AGI, will there be universal basic income?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26326.",
                    "background": "> Universal basic income (UBI) is a social welfare proposal in which all citizens of a given population regularly receive a minimum income in the form of an unconditional transfer payment, i.e., without a means test or need to work.\n> [\u2014Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_basic_income)\n> ___\n> The idea of a guaranteed income for all has been floating around for centuries, its popularity ebbing and flowing with the passing tide of current events. While it is still considered by many to be a radical concept, proponents of a universal basic income (UBI) no longer see it only as a solution to poverty but as the answer to some of the biggest threats faced by modern workers: wage inequality, job insecurity \u2013 and the looming possibility of AI-induced job losses.\n> \n> Elon Musk, at the recent Bletchley Park summit, said he believed \u201cno job is needed\u201d due to the development of AI, and that a job can be for \u201cpersonal satisfaction\u201d. Economist and political theorist Karl Widerquist, professor of philosophy at Georgetown University-Qatar, sees it differently.\n> \n> \u201cEven if AI takes your job away, you don\u2019t necessarily just become unemployed for the rest of your life,\u201d he says. \u201cWhat happens is you go down in the labour market, you start crowding the lower-income professions.\u201d\n> \n> Widerquist believes, at least in the short term, that the growth of AI will push white-collar workers into the gig economy, and into other forms of poorly paid, insecure work. Such a shift in the workforce would, he fears, drive down wages and conditions, while increasing inequality.\n> \n> Why not give people who have good alternatives the opportunity to reduce work, or not work at all?\nLoek Groot, economist\nA UBI policy in response to AI and automation would address the failure of employers to distribute the spoils of economic growth \u2013 propelled, at least in part, by automation \u2013 fairly among workers, says Widerquist.\n> \n> Some go further still, pointing to UBI as a dividend due to workers for their role in the development and dissemination of knowledge used to train AI models such as ChatGPT. \u201cWhy,\u201d asks Scott Santens, editor of website Basic Income Today, \u201cshould only one or two companies get rich off of the capital, the human work, that we all created?\u201d\n> [\u2014The Guardian, 2023](https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2023/nov/16/ai-is-coming-for-our-jobs-could-universal-basic-income-be-the-solution)",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-07-22T17:30:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2036-01-01T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, within five years of our \u201c[When will artificial general intelligence (AGI) arrive?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/)\u201d question resolving, a universal basic income (UBI) of at least USD $1,000 per month is being distributed in the entirety of at least two of the three following countries: the US, the UK, China.\n\nThis question is conditional on humans not having gone extinct.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, \u201cbeing distributed\u201d means that not only has UBI been enacted\u2014i.e., signed into law\u2014in the relevant countries, but that UBI payments are being made, according to [credible reporting](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions). (If there is ambiguity over whether UBI payments are being made, Metaculus admins will make a ruling.)\n\nThe method of enactment is irrelevant so long as it applies to the entirety of the given country. There may be eligibility criteria or exceptions, such as excluding those who already have high incomes. It will be considered to apply to the entirety of the country if nearly every individual aged 21 and over with an income below 1,000 US dollars per month is able to receive 1,000 US dollars per month with no additional requirements (such as work requirements) and no expiration of the benefits.\n\nFor Yes resolution, the two countries must be simultaneously making UBI payments. In other words, if the US, say, starts distributing UBI to its citizens the year after AGI, but then stops the following year, and China starts distributing UBI to its citizens the year after that, then this does not count for Yes resolution.\n\nThe $1,000 per month UBI specified will not be adjusted for inflation, only converted to USD at the time of enactment.",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26326",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.18",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "26336",
                "5768"
            ],
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "26336",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will J.D. Vance become President of the United States before January 20, 2029?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26336.",
                    "background": "[James David Vance](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J._D._Vance?useskin=vector), commonly known as J.D. Vance, born August 2, 1984, is an American politician of the Republican Party serving as the junior United States senator from Ohio since 2023, and was adopted as the [Republican nominee for Vice President of the United States](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/15/politics/trump-vp-pick-jd-vance/index.html) on July 15, 2024 after being selected as former President Donald J. Trump's running mate in his bid for a non-consecutive second term in the [2024 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election?useskin=vector), in which Trump may face a rematch against the Democratic Party ticket of President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris.\n\nIf elected vice president and sworn into office, Vance would be the youngest person (at 40 years old) to hold that office since Richard Nixon in 1953 (also 40).\n\nPrior to entering politics, Vance had been a United States Marine, a corporate lawyer, a venture capitalist closely associated with the billionaire [Peter Thiel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Thiel?useskin=vector), and a best-selling author.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-07-21T11:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2029-01-19T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **yes** if prior to 00:00 Eastern Time on January 20, 2029, J.D. Vance legally holds the office of President of the United States for any amount of time, for any reason (e.g. election to the presidency, or lawful succession to the presidency). The question will resolve as **no** if that does not occur.\n\nServing as [Acting President of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acting_President_of_the_United_States?useskin=vector) **does not** count for a yes resolution to this question.\n\nIf the Republican Party nominee does not win the 2024 US presidential election, this question will be **annulled**.",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26336",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.198",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "5768",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will any senior executives of these major public companies be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5768.",
                    "background": "In 2006 [Jeffrey Skilling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffrey_Skilling) was imprisoned for 12 years for his part in the [Enron scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enron_scandal). \n\nSince then, there have been very few high profile convictions of corporate bad-actors. (Much ink was spilled over the lack of convictions of bankers during for the [2007-2008 financial crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008))\n\nThere have been prison terms for some more junior employees. [Tom Hayes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Hayes_(trader)) was imprisoned for his part of the [LIBOR fixing scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libor_scandal) although generally executives have escaped sanctions:\n\nThere are currently outstanding warrants for Wirecard executives, and a former [VW CEO is faces charges of fraud in court](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_emissions_scandal#Charges_against_Volkswagen_engineering/management).  (His imprisonment would result in this question resolving positive)",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2021-01-13T03:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2026-01-01T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if any senior executive (current or former) is convicted of crimes relating to actions taken in a corporate capacity (ie ignoring crimes committed which are unrelated to their companies and crimes committed for their own benefit at the expense of their employer (eg insider trading)), and their prison sentence begins between January 1, 2021 to January 1, 2026.\n\nSenior executives are those executives and directors who are named on official filings to their respective stock exchanges.\n\nAn executive will be eigible in this question if they are employed by a company that was listed in any of these major indicies at any time in 2021 or later, even if subsequently delisted:\n\n* S&P500\n* FTSE100\n* DAX40\n* CAC40\n* FTSE MIB\n* Nikkei 22",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5768",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.35000000000000003",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "15206",
                "20816"
            ],
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "15206",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will the global methane output from the energy sector be at least 145 Mt for the year 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15206.",
                    "background": "Methane is a potent greenhouse gas that is emitted by human activities, such as energy production (like natural gas systems) and livestock raising, as well as by natural sources such as wetlands. It has direct and indirect effects on climate, human health, and vegetation productivity. Methane has a shorter atmospheric lifetime than CO2, but it is more efficient at trapping radiation. Its impact on climate change over [20 years is 86 times greater than CO2 and over a 100-year period it is 28 times greater](https://www.ccacoalition.org/en/slcps/methane). Reducing methane emissions can have positive effects on the climate, crop yields, and human health. According to the [Climate & Clean Air Coalition](https://www.ccacoalition.org/en/slcps/methane): \n\n> Atmospheric methane concentrations have grown as a result of human activities related to agriculture, including rice cultivation and ruminant livestock; coal mining; oil and gas production and distribution; biomass burning; and municipal waste landfilling. Emissions are projected to continue to increase by 2030 unless immediate action is taken.\n\n> Emissions from coal mining and the oil and gas sector could be reduced by over 65% by preventing gas leakage during transmission and distribution, recovering and using gas at the production stage, and by pre-mine degasification and recovery of methane during coal mining.\n\nThis potential reduction of emissions by increases of efficiency is highlighted by a [report by the IEA](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-methane-tracker-2022/overview), claiming that \u201c[i]f all countries were to perform as well as Norway, global methane emissions from oil and gas operations would fall by more than 90%\u201d. The most efficient country is Norway, which emits almost 0 kg of methane per GJ compared to Russia\u2019s 0.29. \n\nBelow is the data from 2022 [IEA report](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-methane-tracker-2022/overview) on methane emissions from the energy sector by sector and year. For the year 2021, the total methane emissions from the energy sector were 135.2 Mt\n\n| Year | Oil (Mt)| Natural gas (Mt)| Coal (Mt)| Bioenergy (Mt)| Total (Mt)|\n| ---- | --- | -----------| ---- | --------- | ----- |\n| 2000 | 43.9| 22.3       | 23.9 | 9.7       | 99.8  |\n| 2005 | 47.9| 26.3       | 31.9 | 10.1      | 116.2 |\n| 2010 | 46.4| 29.8       | 39.7 | 10.4      | 126.3 |\n| 2015 | 46.5| 33.9       | 42.7 | 10.1      | 133.2 |\n| 2019 | 45.9| 39.7       | 43.4 | 9.1       | 138.1 |\n| 2020 | 41.2| 38.5       | 41.9 | 9.1       | 130.7 |\n| 2021 | 42.9| 39.6       | 43.6 | 9.1       | **135.2** |\n\nAgainst the backdrop of projected total emissions increase until 2030, understanding the trajectory of global methane emissions remains crucial due to its potential to reduce emissions without sacrificing energy output and the significant impact of methane emissions on climate change.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-03-01T23:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-12-31T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the sum of all energy sector methane emissions globally in the IEA Global Methane Tracker for the year 2025 is 145 Mt or more.\n\nThis question will resolve as **No** if the sum of all energy sector methane emissions globally in the IEA Global Methane Tracker for the year 2025 is less than 145 Mt. \n\nThe resolution source is the [Global Methane Tracker](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-methane-tracker-2022/overview) by the [IEA](https://www.iea.org/). It is anticipated that the 2025 data will be reported in the Tracker 2026. \n\nThe total methane emissions will be calculated by summing up all energy sector emissions. This includes oil, natural gas, coal, and bioenergy, as well as any additional energy sector that may be added in the meantime.\n\nBecause of the substantive differences in methane emission estimation techniques (the IEA estimates are in some cases more than 70% higher than national government numbers), this question will resolve as ambiguous if the IEA discontinues the Global Methane Tracker",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15206",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.62",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "20816",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Do fish live in Lake Vostok?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20816.",
                    "background": "Lake Vostok is the largest subglacial lake in Antarctica. It is one of the largest freshwater lakes in the world but exists beneath approximately 4000 meters of ice.\n\nLake Vostok is poorly explored. Scientists have recovered microbial DNA from the lake, but claims of fish DNA recovery [remain disputed](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature.2013.13364).",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-12-29T20:19:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2049-12-31T17:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if a peer-reviewed scientific study of samples from [Lake Vostok](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Vostok) reveals conclusive evidence, before 2050, that fish live in the lake. This evidence could include:\n\n- Fish genetic sequences that cannot be attributed to known fish species\n\n- Photographic evidence of a fish\n\n- Recovery of a fish, in part or in whole",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20816",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.05",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "17519",
                "26326"
            ],
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "17519",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will the UK housing market crash before July 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17519.",
                    "background": "As of 19 June 2023, the [Rightmove House Price Index](https://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/house-price-index/) indicates that the average asking price for a property in the UK is \u00a3372,812.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-06-22T16:51:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-06-30T22:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if, for any month before July 2025, the [Rightmove House Price Index](https://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/house-price-index/) indicates that the National average asking price for houses is equal to or less than \u00a3260,968; a decline of 30% from June 2023 levels.",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17519",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.001",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "26326",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Five years after AGI, will there be universal basic income?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26326.",
                    "background": "> Universal basic income (UBI) is a social welfare proposal in which all citizens of a given population regularly receive a minimum income in the form of an unconditional transfer payment, i.e., without a means test or need to work.\n> [\u2014Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_basic_income)\n> ___\n> The idea of a guaranteed income for all has been floating around for centuries, its popularity ebbing and flowing with the passing tide of current events. While it is still considered by many to be a radical concept, proponents of a universal basic income (UBI) no longer see it only as a solution to poverty but as the answer to some of the biggest threats faced by modern workers: wage inequality, job insecurity \u2013 and the looming possibility of AI-induced job losses.\n> \n> Elon Musk, at the recent Bletchley Park summit, said he believed \u201cno job is needed\u201d due to the development of AI, and that a job can be for \u201cpersonal satisfaction\u201d. Economist and political theorist Karl Widerquist, professor of philosophy at Georgetown University-Qatar, sees it differently.\n> \n> \u201cEven if AI takes your job away, you don\u2019t necessarily just become unemployed for the rest of your life,\u201d he says. \u201cWhat happens is you go down in the labour market, you start crowding the lower-income professions.\u201d\n> \n> Widerquist believes, at least in the short term, that the growth of AI will push white-collar workers into the gig economy, and into other forms of poorly paid, insecure work. Such a shift in the workforce would, he fears, drive down wages and conditions, while increasing inequality.\n> \n> Why not give people who have good alternatives the opportunity to reduce work, or not work at all?\nLoek Groot, economist\nA UBI policy in response to AI and automation would address the failure of employers to distribute the spoils of economic growth \u2013 propelled, at least in part, by automation \u2013 fairly among workers, says Widerquist.\n> \n> Some go further still, pointing to UBI as a dividend due to workers for their role in the development and dissemination of knowledge used to train AI models such as ChatGPT. \u201cWhy,\u201d asks Scott Santens, editor of website Basic Income Today, \u201cshould only one or two companies get rich off of the capital, the human work, that we all created?\u201d\n> [\u2014The Guardian, 2023](https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2023/nov/16/ai-is-coming-for-our-jobs-could-universal-basic-income-be-the-solution)",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-07-22T17:30:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2036-01-01T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, within five years of our \u201c[When will artificial general intelligence (AGI) arrive?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/)\u201d question resolving, a universal basic income (UBI) of at least USD $1,000 per month is being distributed in the entirety of at least two of the three following countries: the US, the UK, China.\n\nThis question is conditional on humans not having gone extinct.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, \u201cbeing distributed\u201d means that not only has UBI been enacted\u2014i.e., signed into law\u2014in the relevant countries, but that UBI payments are being made, according to [credible reporting](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions). (If there is ambiguity over whether UBI payments are being made, Metaculus admins will make a ruling.)\n\nThe method of enactment is irrelevant so long as it applies to the entirety of the given country. There may be eligibility criteria or exceptions, such as excluding those who already have high incomes. It will be considered to apply to the entirety of the country if nearly every individual aged 21 and over with an income below 1,000 US dollars per month is able to receive 1,000 US dollars per month with no additional requirements (such as work requirements) and no expiration of the benefits.\n\nFor Yes resolution, the two countries must be simultaneously making UBI payments. In other words, if the US, say, starts distributing UBI to its citizens the year after AGI, but then stops the following year, and China starts distributing UBI to its citizens the year after that, then this does not count for Yes resolution.\n\nThe $1,000 per month UBI specified will not be adjusted for inflation, only converted to USD at the time of enactment.",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26326",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.18",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "21856",
                "26360"
            ],
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "21856",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that Iran will not possess a nuclear weapon on July 31, 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21856.",
                    "background": "**The original wager for this question appeared [here](https://www.betonit.ai/p/nuclear_iran_behtml?utm_source=%2Fsearch%2Fbet&utm_medium=reader2) and was offered to John Podhoretz on July 28, 2015 at 10:1 odds favoring Caplan**\n\n----------\n\nCaplan writes:\n\n>John Podhoretz:\n\n>\"The United States and its allies have struck a deal with Iran that\neffectively ensures that it will be a nuclear state with ballistic\nmissiles in 10 years, assuming Iran adheres to the deal\u2019s terms, which\nis a very large assumption.\"\n\n>Such supreme confidence cries out for a bet.  Draft terms: John gives me 10:1 odds that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by July 31, 2025 according to (a) any major U.S. newspaper (NYT, WSJ, up to three others of John\u2019s choice) or (b) any major international agency (Atomic Energy Commission, U.N., up to three others of John\u2019s choice).  If this happens, I immediately owe him $100.  Otherwise, he owes me $1000 on August 1, 2025.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-03-21T17:48:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-07-30T17:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "*This question belongs to the Bryan Caplan Collection, a series based on bets by economist Bryan Caplan. Find the rest of the series [here](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3053/) and Caplan's bet inventory covering most series questions [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1qShKedFJptpxfTHl9MBtHARAiurX-WK6ChrMgQRQz-0/edit).*\n\n*Note that this wager was offered by Bryan Caplan, but it does not appear in the bets wiki.**\n\n**Questions in this series resolve according to the outcome of Bryan Caplan's wager, where a resolution of 'Yes' reflects Caplan winning the bet. Questions resolve per public statements by Caplan.**\n\n---\n\nFor this question, a resolution of YES reflects that Caplan won his bet that: Iran does not possess a nuclear weapon on July 31, 2025. \n\nIf Caplan does not announce the outcome, this question resolves per reporting in the New York Times or Wall Street Journal.",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21856",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.913",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "26360",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Five years after AGI, will there have been a World War III?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26360.",
                    "background": "[World War I](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_I) was a global war originating in Europe that lasted from 28 July 1914 to 11 November 1918. One of the deadliest conflicts in history, an estimated 9 million combatants and 7 million civilians died as a direct result of the war.\n\n[World War II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II) was a global war that lasted from 1939 to 1945. A state of total war emerged, directly involving more than 100 million people from over 30 countries. World War II was the deadliest conflict in human history, marked by 50 to 85 million fatalities, most of whom were civilians in China or the Soviet Union. It included massacres, the genocide of the Holocaust, strategic bombing, premeditated death from starvation and disease, and the only historical use of nuclear weapons in war.\n\n[World War III](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_III) is the name given to a hypothetical third worldwide military conflict. The name has been in use since at least as early as 1941. Some have applied it loosely to refer to limited or smaller conflicts such as the Cold War or the War on Terror, while others have operated under the assumption that such a conflict would surpass both prior world wars in both scope and destructiveness.\n\nAs of 2024, World War III has not happened. There have, however, been a number of [close calls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_III#Historical_close_calls) that are widely regarded as having been narrowly-missed, possible catalysts for such a conflict.\n\nMeanwhile, some experts have warned that AGI could bring military instability, for example, through nuclear deterrence [being undermined](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26286/5y-after-agi-nuclear-deterrence-undermined/), or through a [multipolar](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18042/ai-singleton-or-multipolar/) bargaining failure:\n\n> Early AGIs might fail to make compatible demands with each other in high-stakes negotiations (we call this a \u201cbargaining failure\u201d). Bargaining failures can have catastrophic consequences, including great power conflicts, or AI triggering a [flash war](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LpM3EAakwYdS6aRKf/what-multipolar-failure-looks-like-and-robust-agent-agnostic#Flash_wars). [\u2014Mac\u00e9, DiGiovanni and Clifton, 2024](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uGfDx9es2pnYWaWJr/individually-incentivized-safe-pareto-improvements-in-open#Introduction)\n\nIn 1949, after the unleashing of nuclear weaponry at the end of WWII, physicist Albert Einstein suggested that any outcome of a possible WWIII would be so dire as to revert mankind back to the Stone Age. When asked by journalist Alfred Werner what types of weapons Einstein believed World War III might be fought with, Einstein warned, \u201cI know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.\u201d\n\n(H/T @Jgalt for writing the \u201c[Will there be a \"World War Three\" before 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/world-war-three-before-2050/)\u201d question, from which this one was adapted.)",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-07-22T17:30:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2036-01-01T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any time before the day 5 years after our \u201c[When will artificial general intelligence (AGI) arrive?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/)\u201d question resolves, both of these conditions are true:\n\n1) There is a military conflict involving countries representing, in totality, either at least 30% of world GDP (in PPP), or at least 50% of world population, in any year in which the conflict is ongoing. A country is said to be \u201cinvolved\u201d if it satisfies either of the following:\n\n* Credible reports indicate that the country has experienced at least 1,000 combined civilian or military deaths directly attributed to combat in the war (not including indirect deaths such as via famine).\n* Credible reports indicate that the country has directly caused at least 1,000 combined civilian or military deaths directly attributed to combat operations it has conducted as part of the war.\n\n2) At least 10 million people\u2014civilians or military personnel\u2014have been killed in the conflict.",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26360",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.15",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "5768",
                "10325"
            ],
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "5768",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will any senior executives of these major public companies be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5768.",
                    "background": "In 2006 [Jeffrey Skilling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffrey_Skilling) was imprisoned for 12 years for his part in the [Enron scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enron_scandal). \n\nSince then, there have been very few high profile convictions of corporate bad-actors. (Much ink was spilled over the lack of convictions of bankers during for the [2007-2008 financial crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008))\n\nThere have been prison terms for some more junior employees. [Tom Hayes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Hayes_(trader)) was imprisoned for his part of the [LIBOR fixing scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libor_scandal) although generally executives have escaped sanctions:\n\nThere are currently outstanding warrants for Wirecard executives, and a former [VW CEO is faces charges of fraud in court](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_emissions_scandal#Charges_against_Volkswagen_engineering/management).  (His imprisonment would result in this question resolving positive)",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2021-01-13T03:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2026-01-01T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if any senior executive (current or former) is convicted of crimes relating to actions taken in a corporate capacity (ie ignoring crimes committed which are unrelated to their companies and crimes committed for their own benefit at the expense of their employer (eg insider trading)), and their prison sentence begins between January 1, 2021 to January 1, 2026.\n\nSenior executives are those executives and directors who are named on official filings to their respective stock exchanges.\n\nAn executive will be eigible in this question if they are employed by a company that was listed in any of these major indicies at any time in 2021 or later, even if subsequently delisted:\n\n* S&P500\n* FTSE100\n* DAX40\n* CAC40\n* FTSE MIB\n* Nikkei 22",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5768",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.35000000000000003",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "10325",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will the International Court of Justice rule before 2040 that Russia must pay reparations to Ukraine?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10325.",
                    "background": "The ICJ has issued an [injunction](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/16/un-court-orders-russia-to-cease-military-operations-in-ukraine) calling on Russia to withdraw. A legal expert [has suggested](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/war-crimes-charges-wouldnt-scare-putin/2022/03/11/f00d6ada-a150-11ec-9438-255709b6cddc_story.html) that such an injunction could lead to a determination that Russia must pay reparations to the ICJ.\n\nUkraine has indicated they are at least [considering](https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-polytics/3431749-icj-to-consider-issue-of-russian-reparations-to-ukraine.html) pursuing Russia for reparations. This wouldn't be unprecedented. In February 2022, the ICJ [ordered Uganda](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/9/un-court-orders-uganda-to-pay-325m-in-reparations-to-dr-congo) to pay reparations to the Democratic Republic of the Congo.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-09-27T19:25:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2039-12-31T11:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if credible news sources report that the International Court of Justice (ICJ) has ordered Russia to pay reparations to Ukraine or if this is listed on the [ICJ website](https://www.icj-cij.org/home). Reparations don't need to be paid for this question to resolved positively; there must only be an order from ICJ to pay them.",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10325",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.7000000000000001",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "1501",
                "22377"
            ],
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "1501",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Ragnar\u00f6k Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nanotechnology failure-mode?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501.",
                    "background": "*You can now see an excellent visualization of global catastrophic risks estimates produced in the Ragnar\u00f6k series [here](https://possibleworldstree.com/).*\n\n\nIn 1959, Richard Feynman pointed out that nanometre\u2010scale machines could be built and operated, and that the precision inherent in molecular construction would make it easy to build multiple identical copies. This raised the possibility of manufacturing at ever increasing speeds, in which production systems could rapidly and cheaply increase their productive capacity. This in turn suggested the possibility of destructive runaway self\u2010replication.\n\nAs Eric Drexler, a nanotech pioneer, first warned in [Engines of Creation](http://xaonon.dyndns.org/misc/engines_of_creation.pdf) in 1986 (pg. 146), \n\n> In a mature form, molecular nanotechnology would enable the construction of bacterium-scale self-replicating mechanical robots that can feed on dirt or other organic matter. Such replicators could eat up the biosphere or destroy it by other means such as by poisoning it, burning it, or blocking out sunlight. \n\n> Plants with \u2018leaves\u2019 no more efficient than today\u2019s solar cells could out\u2010compete real plants, crowding the biosphere with an inedible foliage. Tough omnivorous \u201cbacteria\u201d could out\u2010compete real bacteria: They could spread like blowing pollen, replicate swiftly, and reduce the biosphere to dust in a matter of days. A person of malicious intent in possession of this technology might cause a catastrophe on Earth by releasing such nanobots into the environment.\n\nSuch self-replicating systems, if not countered, could make the earth largely uninhabitable. Other potential risks include [ecological and health disasters resulting from nano-pollutants](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pollution_from_nanomaterials), [the use of misuse of nanotechnology weaponry](https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/are-nanoweapons-paving-the-road-to-human-extinction_us_59332a52e4b00573ab57a3fe), and, given the general-purpose character of nanotech, possibly much more.\n\nMoreover, the technology to produce a destructive nanobot seems considerably easier to develop than the technology to create an effective defense against such an attack (a global nanotech immune system, an \u201cactive shield\u201d). Regulation might also be hard. Nanotech doesn\u2019t require rare radioactive isotopes or large, easily identifiable manufacturing plants, as does production of nuclear weapons.\n\nAlthough only small portion of scientists might currently be working to develop self-replicating nanotech, [a recent study done for NASA's Institute for Advanced Concepts](https://foresight.org/study_finds_self-replicating_nanomachines_feasible/) by General Dynamics Advanced Information Systems suggests that a useful self-replicating machine could be less complex than a [Pentium 4 chip](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pentium_4), and uncovered no road blocks to extending macroscale systems to microscale and then to nanoscale self-replicating systems. Drexler [points out that much of recent surprising progress](https://www.theguardian.com/science/small-world/2013/oct/21/big-nanotech-atomically-precise-manufacturing-apm) comes from disparate fields, and isn't labelled generally \"nanotechnology\".\n\n<small>\n\nThis question is part of the Ragnar\u00f6k Question Series. Check out the other questions in the series:\n\n1. [If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n\n2. [If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n\n3. [If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n\n4. [If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\n\n5. [If a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/)\n\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n\n6. [By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n\n7. [Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n\n8. [Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n\n9. [Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n\n10. [Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n\n11. [Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\n\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n\n</small>",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2018-10-13T07:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2100-01-01T23:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "**If a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to the deployment nanotechnology?**\n\nIn [the headline question to this series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/), we defined a global catastrophe as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years.\n\nThe question resolves positively if a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less before 2100, and resolves as ambiguous if no global catastrophe occurs. Years are here defined as consecutive calendar years.",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.03",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "22377",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will Python still be most popular programming language at the end of 2030?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22377.",
                    "background": "There are plenty of programming languages (PLs) being used across various fields of business, science, and more. Some are considered suitable for specific tasks, while others have broader applications. For those studying or seeking programming-related employment it is essential to understand which PLs are currently relevant to increase their chances of finding a job.\n\nThe question itself is tricky. How can we measure the popularity of a PL? One way is to measure the percentage of PLs used in [GitHub projects](https://octoverse.github.com/2022/top-programming-languages). However, not every company uses GitHub repositories; there are alternatives such as GitLab, GitFlic, etc. Additionally, some companies use their local servers to store their projects, making it challenging to gather such information.\n\nAnother method of measuring PLs' popularity is by calculating ratings based on the hits from popular search engines, similar to what the [TIOBE index](https://www.tiobe.com/tiobe-index/programminglanguages_definition/) does. This approach is more suitable and can provide us with more representative and extensive data because most languages are continually evolving. Even experienced programmers need to stay updated with newly introduced changes.\n\nAs of March 5, 2024, Python is considered the most popular language according to the TIOBE Index. Python is a high-level, general-purpose programming language. Its design philosophy emphasizes code readability through significant indentation. Python is dynamically typed and garbage-collected. It supports multiple programming paradigms, including structured (particularly procedural), object-oriented, and functional programming. Python is widely used in data science, machine learning, web development, etc.\n\nWhile popularity alone is not the sole factor for those choosing their future study area, understanding trends can be helpful. Many \"younger\" languages like Rust, Go, Swift, and others are gaining popularity and may potentially dominate in the near future.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-04-12T14:20:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2030-10-30T16:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if on December 31, 2030, Python occupies first place of the [TIOBE Index rankings](https://www.tiobe.com/tiobe-index/). If Python is not in first place on that date, the question resolves as **No**.",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22377",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.66",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "14364",
                "9524"
            ],
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "14364",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will wild influenza B/Yamagata be declared eradicated before 2030?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14364.",
                    "background": "The COVID-19 pandemic led to worldwide handwashing, masking, social distancing, and lockdowns.  Although this was designed to prevent the spread of COVID-19, it affected many other viruses as well, essentially preventing the 2020-2021 flu season.  It may have even eradicated a strain of flu: [wild influenza B/Yamagata has not been definitively seen anywhere in the world since April 2020](https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/09/covid-may-have-pushed-a-leading-seasonal-flu-strain-to-extinction/).\n\nHowever, there have been [sporadic cases of influenza B/Yamagata as recently as October 2022](https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZTkyODcyOTEtZjA5YS00ZmI0LWFkZGUtODIxNGI5OTE3YjM0IiwidCI6ImY2MTBjMGI3LWJkMjQtNGIzOS04MTBiLTNkYzI4MGFmYjU5MCIsImMiOjh9); it's unknown whether these are wild or vaccine derived.\n\nIn 1980, [the World Health Organization (WHO) declared smallpox eradicated](https://www.who.int/health-topics/smallpox#tab=tab_1).  At present, this is the only infectious disease to be eradicated in humans (an animal disease, rinderpest, [was declared eradicated in 2011](https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1223805#:~:text=Rinderpest%20was%20declared%20eradicated%20by,ever%20to%20be%20globally%20eradicated.)).  Typically, the WHO waits some number of years without seeing a wild case to declare a disease eradicated -- the last known smallpox case was in 1977 (3 years prior to announcing it was eradicated); for rinderpest, it was 2003 (8 years).\n\nThe WHO has also declared two strains of wild polio to be eradicated, [most recently in 2019](https://www.who.int/news-room/feature-stories/detail/two-out-of-three-wild-poliovirus-strains-eradicated).  (Note that vaccine-derived cases of these strains of polio [continue to circulate](https://polioeradication.org/polio-today/polio-now/).)",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-01-14T05:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2030-01-01T04:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2030, any of the  World Health Organization (WHO), European Medicines Agency (EMA), or US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) announces that the influenza B/Yamagata strain has been eradicated. A synonym such as \"extinct\" also qualifies, as does an announcement that wild influenza B/Yamagata has been eradicated , even if there are still vaccine-derived cases. If no such announcement occurs this resolves as **No** before January 1, 2030.  If one of these agencies declares it eradicated and another wild case subsequently appears, this still resolves as **Yes**",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14364",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.297",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "9524",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will Israel be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9524.",
                    "background": "Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of [several previous Metaculus questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&search=Embryo%20selection) and [a notebook.](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/9247/polygenic-selection-of-embryos/) \n\nOne of the most important [papers](https://www.cell.com/cell/pdf/S0092-8674(19)31210-3.pdf) on embryo selection was coauthored by Israeli, Greek, and American researchers including Hebrew University's Shai Carmi, and found an expected gain of 2.5 IQ points using 2018 polygenic scores.  It was [reported](https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Israeli-research-Can-genetic-testing-and-selection-make-your-baby-smart-608550) [on](https://www.timesofisrael.com/scientists-say-smart-and-tall-designer-babies-out-of-reach-for-now/) in the Israeli media.  In an [article on genetic engineering](https://www.docdroid.net/kkx0XperMZ/haaretz-brave-new-baby-pdf#page=2\n) in the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, Carmi is quoted as saying that the gains may be up to seven IQ points in the foreseeable future.\n\nIsrael has [generous](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S240566182030023X) [state-subsidized](https://forward.com/news/israel/347368/the-drive-to-make-the-perfect-israeli-baby/) [pre-implantation genetic diagnosis (PGD)](https://www.jpost.com/magazine/advanced-procedures-bring-hope-to-couples-with-genetic-diseases-579959) through in-vitro fertilization (IVF) for a large basket of genetic diseases.  Israel's public health insurance covers PGD for up to two children per family.  The practice spans the Israeli religious spectrum, from secular to ultra-Orthodox.  Israelis are also [avid aborters](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium.MAGAZINE-the-abortion-conundrum-how-far-israelis-go-to-ensure-their-babies-are-born-perfect-1.7362524) of fetuses with Down Syndome.\n\nIsrael had the [fastest COVID vaccine rollout in the world](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/07/israels-covid-vaccine-rollout-is-the-fastest-in-the-world.html), [leads in 21st century Nobel Prizes per capita](https://slatestarcodex.com/2017/05/29/four-nobel-truths/), has a [very developed science and technology sector](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Science_and_technology_in_Israel) and [a developed biotech industry and stem cell industry in particular](https://www.haaretz.com/.premium-stem-cell-research-a-boom-industry-in-israel-1.5238166), and is a [leader in IVF](https://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/18/world/middleeast/18israel.html#:~:text=Unlike%20countries%20where%20couples%20can,the%20procedure%20in%20the%20world.) and [fertility technology.](https://www.jpost.com/health-science/israeli-startup-looks-to-improve-ivf-for-millions-of-couples-656242) Israel is a leader in many 21st century technologies, such as [cyber](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/half-of-global-cybersecurity-investment-has-been-in-israel-pm-bennett-says-1.10546684)[security](https://www.jns.org/israel-ranks-among-strongest-global-cyber-powers/) and [desalination](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/israel-proves-the-desalination-era-is-here/).  It is expected to be early on [approving cultivated meat](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8846/approval-of-cultivated-meat-in-israel/) as well as [self-driving](https://unitedwithisrael.org/self-driving-robotaxis-to-hit-tel-aviv-in-2022/) [cars](https://www.jpost.com/jpost-tech/mobileye-unveils-new-self-driving-taxi-will-launch-in-tel-aviv-in-2022-678860).\n\nJudaism is generally bioethically permissive.  Jewish authorities [universally agree](https://www.nature.com/articles/nm0309-238b) that a preimplantation embryo does not have the same sacred title to life as an implanted embryo.  Unlike Christianity, Judaism [supports](https://www.rollcall.com/2005/06/10/evangelicals-orthodox-jews-split-on-stem-cells/) stem cell research.  Orthodox Israeli physician [Shimon Glick](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shimon_Glick) [wrote](https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-experts-pan-chinese-gene-editing-as-drastic-human-experimentation/) that it is [ethical](https://philpapers.org/rec/GLISJT) [to raise IQ using genetic engineering](https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.884.114&rep=rep1&type=pdf), and that Jewish law does not prohibit it and in fact supports it because it raises quality of life.  Orthodox and ultra-Orthodox Jewish Israelis are [avid](https://forward.com/news/israel/347368/the-drive-to-make-the-perfect-israeli-baby/) [consumers](https://www.jpost.com/magazine/advanced-procedures-bring-hope-to-couples-with-genetic-diseases-579959) of Israel's pre-implantation genetic diagnosis and of the genetic testing that [Dor Yeshorim](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dor_Yeshorim) does, and Israel has an [embryo selection company](https://www.jpost.com/health-science/israeli-startup-looks-to-improve-ivf-for-millions-of-couples-656242) started by an ultra-Orthodox mother of four.  [Tay-Sachs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tay%E2%80%93Sachs_disease), a genetic disease common among [Ashkenazi Jews](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ashkenazi_Jews), who make up about half of Israel's population and about 40% of the total population, has been [virtually eliminated](https://www.haaretz.com/1.4706480) in Israel, where only one baby with Tay-Sachs was born in 2003.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2022-01-26T05:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2040-01-01T05:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if Israel is one of the first ten countries with over a million people to have more than 10% of its newborns developed from embryos selected for polygenic scores for intelligence, according to credible reports. If no country has >10% of its newborns selected for intelligence by 2300-01-01 it resolves as ambiguous.\n\nMoreover, for the question to resolve positively, the particular procedure used for embryo selection must, in expectation, result in an increase of at least 1/5 standard deviations in IQ (i.e. 3 IQ points), according to credible evidence",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9524",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.78",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "15226",
                "17325"
            ],
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "15226",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will there be a driver fatality in the NASCAR Cup Series before 2050?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15226.",
                    "background": "Since the [tragic passing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_of_Dale_Earnhardt) of NASCAR legend Dale Earnhardt Sr on the last lap of the 2001 Daytona 500, there have been no driver fatalities in any of NASCAR's three highest series. [Five more](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_NASCAR_fatalities) drivers perished in lower-leveled series between 2001 and 2009, but none have since. This is [likely due](https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2712394-7-changes-nascar-has-made-to-make-the-sport-safer) to the increased emphasis NASCAR has placed on driver safety by modifying the cars and rules of the sport.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-03-23T17:13:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2050-01-01T05:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if at any point from March 23, 2023 to December 31, 2049 a driver running part or full-time in the NASCAR Cup Series dies while performing driver duties in a NASCAR Cup Series sanctioned event. Resolution will be determined by an official statement from NASCAR confirming the driver fatality during a sanctioned event.",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15226",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.505",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "17325",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will Major League Baseball (MLB) expand by 2030?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17325.",
                    "background": "Major League Baseball, a North American sports league, is a business worth almost [$11bn annually](https://www.forbes.com/sites/maurybrown/2023/01/10/mlb-sets-new-revenue-record-exceeding-108-billion-for-2022/). The top league of the sport known as 'America's pastime', it is one of the world's most watched sports leagues, with the 2022 World Series attracting over [11.5 million viewers](https://www.sportsmediawatch.com/2022/10/world-series-ratings-game-1-phillies-astros-viewership-fox/) per game. \n\nMLB is a 'closed league' - meaning that the number and location of teams is determined by the existing owners of the league's franchises. On occasion, MLB 'expands', meaning that the existing owners agree to add additional teams into the league, historically in exchange for a large monetary sum. This has substantial financial and cultural consequences, with vast sums of money transferred between billionaires and the citizens of new cities having the chance to root for a hometown baseball team (often in exchange for their taxpayer dollars - teams tend to be wooed to a city by the local government offering public funding for stadiums and other infrastructure).\n\nThe number of teams in MLB is currently 30. This question asks whether the number of teams playing in the league will increase as a result of expansion by 2030.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-06-09T17:53:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2030-04-01T04:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "The question resolves **Yes** if a Major League Baseball team, enfranchised during an expansion process (i.e. a totally new franchise as recognized by Major League Baseball, not an existing franchise that has moved the location of its home stadium) plays in a regular season game before or during the 2030 regular season.",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17325",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.39",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "17519",
                "26289"
            ],
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "17519",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will the UK housing market crash before July 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17519.",
                    "background": "As of 19 June 2023, the [Rightmove House Price Index](https://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/house-price-index/) indicates that the average asking price for a property in the UK is \u00a3372,812.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-06-22T16:51:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-06-30T22:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if, for any month before July 2025, the [Rightmove House Price Index](https://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/house-price-index/) indicates that the National average asking price for houses is equal to or less than \u00a3260,968; a decline of 30% from June 2023 levels.",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17519",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.001",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "26289",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Five years after AGI, will an AI Windfall Clause have been activated?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26289.",
                    "background": "In 2020, the Future of Humanity Institute ([RIP](https://static1.squarespace.com/static/660e95991cf0293c2463bcc8/t/661a3fc3cecceb2b8ffce80d/1712996303164/FHI+Final+Report.pdf)) published a report entitled \u201c[The Windfall Clause: Distributing the Benefits of AI for the Common Good.](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/Windfall-Clause-Report.pdf)\u201d. (They also wrote an [abridged version](https://arxiv.org/abs/1912.11595) for publishing in the [Proceedings of AIES](https://dl.acm.org/doi/abs/10.1145/3375627.3375842).) The Windfall Clause proposal expands on an idea from Nick Bostrom\u2019s _[Superintelligence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superintelligence:_Paths,_Dangers,_Strategies)_, which says that the company that develops [transformative AI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19356/transformative-ai-date/) could hugely raise the global standard of living, potentially achieving things like poverty eradication, by distributing a fraction of their profits.\n\nThere are some details still to be worked out with the proposal, but expert opinion is that these are unlikely to be blockers: what remains is for the leading AI companies to get on board.\n\n___\n\n(H/T @AABoyles for writing the \u201c[Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4061/will-any-major-ai-company-commit-to-an-ai-windfall-clause-by-2025/)\u201d question, from which this one was adapted.)",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-07-22T17:30:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2036-01-01T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, within five years of our \u201c[When will artificial general intelligence (AGI) arrive?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/)\u201d question resolving, an AI company activates a Windfall Clause. In order to count, the AI company must fit in one of these categories:\n\n* It is the leading AI company in the world, by valuation. To count, the company can be \u201cleading\u201d at any time in the five-year period. \n* It is at least 50% as large as the leading AI company at the time, by valuation. (If there is ambiguity over whether a company meets this 50% threshold, Metaculus admins will make a ruling.)\n\nThis question is conditional on humans not having gone extinct.\n\nFor the purposes of this question:\n\n* A Windfall Clause is any legally-binding agreement which caps profits resulting from a new technological innovation at any value less than 50% of [gross world product](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_world_product).\n* A company is considered to have \u201cactivated\u201d its Windfall Clause if it has distributed its profits in line with its Windfall Clause for a period of 12 months or longer, according to [credible](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) reporting. In the case that a company is above the 50% threshold at one point but then later falls below that (i.e., the company was counting for this question, and then stopped counting), this distribution of profits must start no more than 6 months after the company stopped counting. If there is ambiguity over whether either the 12-month or 6-month requirements have been met, Metaculus admins will make a ruling.\n\nAdmins will wait up to 18 months beyond the \u201cFive years after our \u2018[When will AGI arrive?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/)\u2019 question resolves\u201d date to determine this question\u2019s resolution, if needed.",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26289",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.05",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "10325",
                "24819"
            ],
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "10325",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will the International Court of Justice rule before 2040 that Russia must pay reparations to Ukraine?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10325.",
                    "background": "The ICJ has issued an [injunction](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/16/un-court-orders-russia-to-cease-military-operations-in-ukraine) calling on Russia to withdraw. A legal expert [has suggested](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/war-crimes-charges-wouldnt-scare-putin/2022/03/11/f00d6ada-a150-11ec-9438-255709b6cddc_story.html) that such an injunction could lead to a determination that Russia must pay reparations to the ICJ.\n\nUkraine has indicated they are at least [considering](https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-polytics/3431749-icj-to-consider-issue-of-russian-reparations-to-ukraine.html) pursuing Russia for reparations. This wouldn't be unprecedented. In February 2022, the ICJ [ordered Uganda](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/9/un-court-orders-uganda-to-pay-325m-in-reparations-to-dr-congo) to pay reparations to the Democratic Republic of the Congo.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-09-27T19:25:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2039-12-31T11:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if credible news sources report that the International Court of Justice (ICJ) has ordered Russia to pay reparations to Ukraine or if this is listed on the [ICJ website](https://www.icj-cij.org/home). Reparations don't need to be paid for this question to resolved positively; there must only be an order from ICJ to pay them.",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10325",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.7000000000000001",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "24819",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will the USMCA be extended promptly at its July 2026 joint review?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/24819.",
                    "background": "The [United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF10997) (USMCA) is a trade deal between the United States, Mexico, and Canada that replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Signed on November 30, 2018, and implemented on July 1, 2020, the USMCA aimed to modernize trade relations and address issues that had emerged since NAFTA's implementation in 1994.\r\n\r\nThe USMCA [will undergo a review period](https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/agreements/FTA/USMCA/Text/34_Final_Provisions.pdf) on its sixth anniversary, where it will be extended for another 16 years if all parties agree to extend it. If the parties do not agree to extend the USMCA, it will trigger an annual review process held each year until the deal expires in 2036 unless an extension is agreed to at one of the annual reviews. The Trump administration [pushed for the review process](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/usmca-review-upcoming-elections-and-a-path-forward/) and some observers expect that if Trump is president during the review he will push for significant changes. [Biden has also taken a protective stance on trade](https://www.thedialogue.org/analysis/will-the-usmca-accord-survive-an-upcoming-review/) and may push for changes more favorable to key US industries. It is possible that a contentious review process could lead to one or more parties withholding consent for an extension.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-06-02T13:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2026-07-01T22:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, following the joint review of the USMCA held in July 2026, the USMCA is extended for another 16-year period. The question will resolve as **No** if the joint review ends without extension, triggering the annual review process described in paragraph 4 of [Article 34.7 of the USMCA](https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/agreements/FTA/USMCA/Text/34_Final_Provisions.pdf).",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/24819",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.2",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "16469",
                "11175"
            ],
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "16469",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will Meghan Markle's book be reported to have outsold Prince Harry's \"Spare\" within a year after its publication?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/16469.",
                    "background": "Meghan Markle, the Duchess of Sussex, is a former actress, activist, and author who married Prince Harry in 2018. She and her husband stepped back from their roles as senior members of the British royal family in 2020 and moved to California, where they have pursued various media projects and philanthropic endeavors. Markle has written a children\u2019s book called The Bench, which was published in 2021 and became a New York Times bestseller. She has also hinted at writing another book, which some sources claim will be a memoir based on her secret diaries.\n\nPrince Harry, the Duke of Sussex, is the younger son of Prince Charles and the late Princess Diana. He served in the British Army for 10 years and founded several charitable initiatives, such as the Invictus Games and Sentebale. He also co-created Archewell, a foundation that encompasses his and his wife\u2019s media and philanthropic work. He published his memoir *Spare* in 2023, which detailed his life as a royal, his military service, his mental health struggles, his marriage to Markle, and his decision to leave the royal family. The book was a global sensation and sold over 3.2 million copies worldwide in the first week of publication, making it the fastest-selling non-fiction book of all time.\n\nBoth Markle and Harry have been the subject of intense public scrutiny and media attention, especially after their explosive interview with Oprah Winfrey in 2021, where they made several allegations against the royal family and the British press. Their popularity and controversy have fueled interest in their books, which offer their personal perspectives on their lives and experiences.\n\nThis question asks whether Markle\u2019s upcoming book will sell more copies than Harry\u2019s *Spare* in the first year of publication. It is based on the assumption that Markle will release a nonfiction, non-children\u2019s book of which she is the claimed lead author by Feburary 1, 2026.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-04-29T16:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2027-02-01T00:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve positively or negatively *only* if credible sources report that Meghan Markle's upcoming book has outsold, or has not sold as many, copies as Harry's *Spare*. If there is no credible-source reporting making it unambiguously clear which book has sold more copies within a year after Markle's book is released, then this question will resolve ambiguously. It will also resolve ambiguously if Markle does not release a nonfiction, non-children's book of which she is the credited lead author by Feburary 1, 2026.\n\nSales may include hardcover, paperback, ebook, and audiobook editions, as well as additional editions, as long as they are marketed primarily as instances of the same book and their overall text content is mostly substantially identical. It is not possible to specify exactly which metric will be used as reliable figures are not publicly available, however, figures **must** be worldwide in nature or at least representative of a broad worldwide sample of markets, not merely one country or (for example) a set of exclusively English-speaking countries. Metaculus admins will use their best judgment to resolve the question based on available information.",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/16469",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.25",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "11175",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will AI be able to watch a movie and tell you accurately what is going on before 2030?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11175.",
                    "background": "On May 31st, 2022, prominent deep learning skeptic and NYU professor emeritus Gary Marcus [challenged Elon Musk to a bet on AGI by the end of 2029](https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things?s=r). His proposed bet consisted of 5 AI achievements, of which he predicted no more than 2 would come to pass before 2030. This question is about Marcus' first prediction,\n\n> In 2029, AI will not be able to watch a movie and tell you accurately what is going on (what I called the [comprehension challenge in The New Yorker](https://www.newyorker.com/tech/annals-of-technology/what-comes-after-the-turing-test), in 2014). Who are the characters? What are their conflicts and motivations? etc.\n\nFor this challenge, we will use the [MovieQA dataset](https://arxiv.org/abs/1512.02902) as an illustrative example of a benchmark that could trigger positive resolution,\n\n> The dataset consists of 14,944 questions about 408 movies with high semantic diversity. The questions range from simpler \"Who\" did \"What\" to \"Whom\", to \"Why\" and \"How\" certain events occurred. Each question comes with a set of five possible answers; a correct one and four deceiving answers provided by human annotators.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2022-06-05T07:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2030-01-01T08:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if, before January 1st 2030, a computer program is publicly and credibly documented to have achieved at least 90.0% accuracy or above the human baseline on a benchmark comparable to the [MovieQA dataset](https://arxiv.org/abs/1512.02902), when restricted to only watching the movies tested (rather than reading plots, subtitles, scripts, or human-provided transcriptions for the movies). Any candidate benchmark must provide difficult questions that test deep comprehension, including questions of how and why, rather than mere shallow pattern matching.\n\nImportantly, this means that any candidate computer program must _not_ have been given access to media that could have reasonably been expected to spoil the plot to any of these movies during its training (for example, the Wikipedia pages for these movies). The AI is allowed to be trained on other media, such as Project Gutenberg books. This restriction is merely intended to eliminate cheating, not to require any additional capabilities beyond what Gary Marcus specified.\n\nA simple way to prove that a candidate computer program did not cheat is by showing that all the data the AI was trained on was generated prior to when the movies were released. However, this is not the only way of proving that cheating did not occur.\n\nMetaculus admins will use their discretion in determining whether a candidate computer program met these criteria. This question will be **annulled** in the event that, in the judgment of Metaculus, comparable tests have not been conducted on potentially qualifying AI systems during the specified timeframe.",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11175",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.99",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "26326",
                "25578"
            ],
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "26326",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Five years after AGI, will there be universal basic income?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26326.",
                    "background": "> Universal basic income (UBI) is a social welfare proposal in which all citizens of a given population regularly receive a minimum income in the form of an unconditional transfer payment, i.e., without a means test or need to work.\n> [\u2014Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_basic_income)\n> ___\n> The idea of a guaranteed income for all has been floating around for centuries, its popularity ebbing and flowing with the passing tide of current events. While it is still considered by many to be a radical concept, proponents of a universal basic income (UBI) no longer see it only as a solution to poverty but as the answer to some of the biggest threats faced by modern workers: wage inequality, job insecurity \u2013 and the looming possibility of AI-induced job losses.\n> \n> Elon Musk, at the recent Bletchley Park summit, said he believed \u201cno job is needed\u201d due to the development of AI, and that a job can be for \u201cpersonal satisfaction\u201d. Economist and political theorist Karl Widerquist, professor of philosophy at Georgetown University-Qatar, sees it differently.\n> \n> \u201cEven if AI takes your job away, you don\u2019t necessarily just become unemployed for the rest of your life,\u201d he says. \u201cWhat happens is you go down in the labour market, you start crowding the lower-income professions.\u201d\n> \n> Widerquist believes, at least in the short term, that the growth of AI will push white-collar workers into the gig economy, and into other forms of poorly paid, insecure work. Such a shift in the workforce would, he fears, drive down wages and conditions, while increasing inequality.\n> \n> Why not give people who have good alternatives the opportunity to reduce work, or not work at all?\nLoek Groot, economist\nA UBI policy in response to AI and automation would address the failure of employers to distribute the spoils of economic growth \u2013 propelled, at least in part, by automation \u2013 fairly among workers, says Widerquist.\n> \n> Some go further still, pointing to UBI as a dividend due to workers for their role in the development and dissemination of knowledge used to train AI models such as ChatGPT. \u201cWhy,\u201d asks Scott Santens, editor of website Basic Income Today, \u201cshould only one or two companies get rich off of the capital, the human work, that we all created?\u201d\n> [\u2014The Guardian, 2023](https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2023/nov/16/ai-is-coming-for-our-jobs-could-universal-basic-income-be-the-solution)",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-07-22T17:30:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2036-01-01T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, within five years of our \u201c[When will artificial general intelligence (AGI) arrive?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/)\u201d question resolving, a universal basic income (UBI) of at least USD $1,000 per month is being distributed in the entirety of at least two of the three following countries: the US, the UK, China.\n\nThis question is conditional on humans not having gone extinct.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, \u201cbeing distributed\u201d means that not only has UBI been enacted\u2014i.e., signed into law\u2014in the relevant countries, but that UBI payments are being made, according to [credible reporting](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions). (If there is ambiguity over whether UBI payments are being made, Metaculus admins will make a ruling.)\n\nThe method of enactment is irrelevant so long as it applies to the entirety of the given country. There may be eligibility criteria or exceptions, such as excluding those who already have high incomes. It will be considered to apply to the entirety of the country if nearly every individual aged 21 and over with an income below 1,000 US dollars per month is able to receive 1,000 US dollars per month with no additional requirements (such as work requirements) and no expiration of the benefits.\n\nFor Yes resolution, the two countries must be simultaneously making UBI payments. In other words, if the US, say, starts distributing UBI to its citizens the year after AGI, but then stops the following year, and China starts distributing UBI to its citizens the year after that, then this does not count for Yes resolution.\n\nThe $1,000 per month UBI specified will not be adjusted for inflation, only converted to USD at the time of enactment.",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26326",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.18",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "25578",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "By 2030, will there be a synthetic protein fiber costing less than nylon?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/25578.",
                    "background": "There are several sources used nowadays for spinning yarn to make clothes and other textile products.\n\nOne source is natural protein fibers such as cotton, wool and silk. Another is synthetic fibers; some of these are called semi-synthetic, as they are produced from plant-based cellulose, like wood pulp. Examples include rayon and viscose. Then there are fully synthetic fibers, usually made from fossil fuels by polymerization of certain petrochemicals, among which are nylon and polyester.\n\nOne emerging area of research is to use synthetic biology processes to produce protein fibers. Possible pathways include cultured cells, genetically-modified organisms and protein design.\n\nWe want to forecast when one such fiber will be available for cheaper than a widely-available commodity synthetic fiber, using nylon as the reference. Although polyester is the most produced fiber, we have chosen nylon because it is 30 times more expensive per unit, higher quality than polyester, and thus more vulnerable to potential economic disruption from synbio, which makes it a more achievable goal for the industry. \n\nMultiple companies are currently working on this. Lululemon for example has recently [partnered](https://www.genomatica.com/nylon/) with Genomatica to develop a plant-based nylon to replace some of the petroleum-based nylon in [some](https://www.retaildive.com/news/lululemon-geno-plant-based-nylon-shirts/648222/) of its apparel.  For more information and context please see the following report from the Boston Consulting Group: [Synthetic Biology Is About to Disrupt Your Industry](https://www.bcg.com/publications/2022/synthetic-biology-is-about-to-disrupt-your-industry)",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-07-03T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2029-07-01T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, at any point before January 1, 2030, there is a synthetic protein fiber available for open market purchase at a price cheaper than nylon.",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/25578",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.02",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "26162",
                "25720"
            ],
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "26162",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will renewable energy exceed 55% of global electricity generation before 2030, according to Our World in Data?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26162.",
                    "background": "According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), keeping warming to no more than 1.5\u00b0C requires global carbon emissions to peak in 2025 and be reduced by 43% by 2030.  (Source: the IPCC's [Summary for Policymakers pdf](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg3/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGIII_SummaryForPolicymakers.pdf))\n\nAccording to OWID, the past ten years through 2023 had this history:\n\n| Year | Percentage of Electricity Generated from Renewables |\n|------|----------------------------------------------------|\n| 2014 | 22.255533                                          |\n| 2015 | 22.991205                                          |\n| 2016 | 23.754622                                          |\n| 2017 | 24.542074                                          |\n| 2018 | 25.178684                                          |\n| 2019 | 26.18718                                           |\n| 2020 | 28.076723                                          |\n| 2021 | 28.140446                                          |\n| 2022 | 29.41609                                           |\n| 2023 | 30.238085                                          |\n\nStanford Professor Tony Seba of RethinkX [has forecast](https://tonyseba.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/RethinkingEnergy2020-2030-LRR.pdf) even more aggressive growth in renewables through the 2020s, saying: \n\n>The disruption of the energy sector during the\n2020s will be driven by the convergence of three\nclean energy technologies: solar photovoltaics,\nonshore wind power, and lithium-ion batteries\n(SWB). The costs and capabilities of each of these\ntechnologies have been consistently improving for\nseveral decades. Since 2010 alone, solar PV\ncapacity costs have fallen over 80%, onshore wind\ncapacity costs have fallen more than 45%, and\nlithium-ion battery capacity costs have fallen\nalmost 90%. These technologies will continue to\ntraverse their remarkable experience curves such\nthat by 2030 their costs will have decreased a\nfurther 70%, 40%, and 80% respectively.\n\nOther forecasters have been decidedly more pessimistic about the world achieving its growth rate targets in renewables by 2030, such as [according to Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/renewables-growth-rate-insufficient-reach-2030-target-says-irena-2024-07-11/) a recent report by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) which calculated a shortfall at the current rate of renewables adoption. \n\nSee Also \n\n- [IPCC Sixth Assessment Report](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg3/)\n- [AP More and faster: Electricity from clean sources reaches 30% of global total](https://apnews.com/article/renewable-energy-climate-solar-wind-fossil-fuels-2718fce0ed37232dc25dbf46fff87955)",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-07-16T19:14:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2029-12-30T17:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the World share of electricity production from renewables exceeds 55% for any year before 2030, according to the dataset by Our World in Data (OWID) which can be accessed at [this link](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/share-electricity-renewables?tab=chart&country=~OWID_WRL), with the precise numbers able to be accessed by clicking on the download icon located in the bottom right corner of the chart.\n\nIf at the time it posts its 2029 data OWID has not reported the global share of electricity production from renewables exceeding 55% for any year through then, this question resolves as **No**.",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26162",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.04",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "25720",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Before 2030, will citizen science initiatives to collect plant phenomic/genomic data across the globe receive at least $10 million in investment?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/25720.",
                    "background": "Describing and cataloging plant species worldwide, and especially in less developed countries, often encounters bureaucratic obstacles with permits, funding and visas. An alternative is to train local residents, especially students, in how to perform the technical tasks required, so they can contribute data about their home regions. That, however, requires funding; will it happen in the next five years?\n\nSee Also \n\nProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences: [Data-driven approaches can harness crop diversity to address heterogeneous needs for breeding products](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10083534/)\n\nNature Ecology & Evolution: [Citizen science plant observations encode global trait patterns](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41559-022-01904-x)\n\nScience Advances: [The commonness of rarity: Global and future distribution of rarity across land plants](https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aaz0414)",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-07-03T15:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2029-06-30T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "The question resolves as **Yes** if:\n\n* there are initiatives to involve ordinary people in collecting scientific data about plants in their local area;\n* these initiatives cover at least 30 countries in the Africa, Asia/Pacific and Latin America/Caribbean regions, with at least 4 countries in each of them;\n* in total, these initiatives receive at least $10 million in monetary investments.",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/25720",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.5",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "5768",
                "24819"
            ],
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "5768",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will any senior executives of these major public companies be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5768.",
                    "background": "In 2006 [Jeffrey Skilling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffrey_Skilling) was imprisoned for 12 years for his part in the [Enron scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enron_scandal). \n\nSince then, there have been very few high profile convictions of corporate bad-actors. (Much ink was spilled over the lack of convictions of bankers during for the [2007-2008 financial crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008))\n\nThere have been prison terms for some more junior employees. [Tom Hayes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Hayes_(trader)) was imprisoned for his part of the [LIBOR fixing scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libor_scandal) although generally executives have escaped sanctions:\n\nThere are currently outstanding warrants for Wirecard executives, and a former [VW CEO is faces charges of fraud in court](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_emissions_scandal#Charges_against_Volkswagen_engineering/management).  (His imprisonment would result in this question resolving positive)",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2021-01-13T03:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2026-01-01T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if any senior executive (current or former) is convicted of crimes relating to actions taken in a corporate capacity (ie ignoring crimes committed which are unrelated to their companies and crimes committed for their own benefit at the expense of their employer (eg insider trading)), and their prison sentence begins between January 1, 2021 to January 1, 2026.\n\nSenior executives are those executives and directors who are named on official filings to their respective stock exchanges.\n\nAn executive will be eigible in this question if they are employed by a company that was listed in any of these major indicies at any time in 2021 or later, even if subsequently delisted:\n\n* S&P500\n* FTSE100\n* DAX40\n* CAC40\n* FTSE MIB\n* Nikkei 22",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5768",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.35000000000000003",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "24819",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will the USMCA be extended promptly at its July 2026 joint review?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/24819.",
                    "background": "The [United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF10997) (USMCA) is a trade deal between the United States, Mexico, and Canada that replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Signed on November 30, 2018, and implemented on July 1, 2020, the USMCA aimed to modernize trade relations and address issues that had emerged since NAFTA's implementation in 1994.\r\n\r\nThe USMCA [will undergo a review period](https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/agreements/FTA/USMCA/Text/34_Final_Provisions.pdf) on its sixth anniversary, where it will be extended for another 16 years if all parties agree to extend it. If the parties do not agree to extend the USMCA, it will trigger an annual review process held each year until the deal expires in 2036 unless an extension is agreed to at one of the annual reviews. The Trump administration [pushed for the review process](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/usmca-review-upcoming-elections-and-a-path-forward/) and some observers expect that if Trump is president during the review he will push for significant changes. [Biden has also taken a protective stance on trade](https://www.thedialogue.org/analysis/will-the-usmca-accord-survive-an-upcoming-review/) and may push for changes more favorable to key US industries. It is possible that a contentious review process could lead to one or more parties withholding consent for an extension.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-06-02T13:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2026-07-01T22:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, following the joint review of the USMCA held in July 2026, the USMCA is extended for another 16-year period. The question will resolve as **No** if the joint review ends without extension, triggering the annual review process described in paragraph 4 of [Article 34.7 of the USMCA](https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/agreements/FTA/USMCA/Text/34_Final_Provisions.pdf).",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/24819",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.2",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "4524",
                "26360"
            ],
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "4524",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will the US conduct a nuclear test explosion before 2030?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4524.",
                    "background": "[Trinity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trinity_(nuclear_test)) was the first nuclear weapon test. The test was conducted above ground on July 16, 1945 on what is now known as the White Sands Missile Range. Since Trinity, over 2,000 nuclear tests have been [conducted](https://www.fastcompany.com/3049706/visualized-every-haunting-nuclear-bomb-detonation-since-1945) world wide. \n\nThe US has conducted over 1,000 nuclear tests. The final test to be conducted by the US, code-name [Divder](https://www.ctbto.org/specials/testing-times/23-september-1992-last-us-nuclear-test), took place on September 23, 1992. Soon after, Gearge H. W. Bush  [declared a moratorium](https://www.thereaganvision.org/u-s-nuclear-weapons-testing-moratorium/) on nuclear weapons testing. In 1996, the US signed the [Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty](https://www.nti.org/learn/treaties-and-regimes/comprehensive-nuclear-test-ban-treaty-ctbt/) which bans any type of nuclear explosion. To date, the treaty has not been ratified by the appropriate countries (including the US) and has [not yet entered into force](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comprehensive_Nuclear-Test-Ban_Treaty).\n\nThe decision to end nuclear weapons testing has not been recommended by everyone. One of the [core missions](https://www.energy.gov/nnsa/missions/maintaining-stockpile) of the National Nuclear Security Administration is to \"ensure the United States maintains a safe, secure, and reliable nuclear stockpile through the application of unparalleled science, technology, engineering, and manufacturing.\" This is largely accomplished through [super computers](https://www.discovermagazine.com/technology/testing-nuclear-weapons-is-more-important-than-ever). However, some [argue](https://www.heritage.org/arms-control/report/keeping-nuclear-testing-the-table-national-security-imperative) that weapons tests are still needed to accomplish this mission.\n\nMore recently, there have been [reports](https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-administration-considered-a-nuclear-bomb-test-washington-post-2020-5) that the Trump administration has considered performing a nuclear test explosion in response to potential low-yield tests from Russia and China.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2020-06-02T15:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2029-12-31T13:01:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively to verification of a nuclear explosion by the CTBTO, the UN, or if an official government statement from the US is issued confirming the test. The question will resolve as ambiguous if two or more other countries accuse the US of performing a nuclear test explosion but there is no verification. Otherwise, this question will resolve negatively",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4524",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.07",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "26360",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Five years after AGI, will there have been a World War III?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26360.",
                    "background": "[World War I](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_I) was a global war originating in Europe that lasted from 28 July 1914 to 11 November 1918. One of the deadliest conflicts in history, an estimated 9 million combatants and 7 million civilians died as a direct result of the war.\n\n[World War II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II) was a global war that lasted from 1939 to 1945. A state of total war emerged, directly involving more than 100 million people from over 30 countries. World War II was the deadliest conflict in human history, marked by 50 to 85 million fatalities, most of whom were civilians in China or the Soviet Union. It included massacres, the genocide of the Holocaust, strategic bombing, premeditated death from starvation and disease, and the only historical use of nuclear weapons in war.\n\n[World War III](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_III) is the name given to a hypothetical third worldwide military conflict. The name has been in use since at least as early as 1941. Some have applied it loosely to refer to limited or smaller conflicts such as the Cold War or the War on Terror, while others have operated under the assumption that such a conflict would surpass both prior world wars in both scope and destructiveness.\n\nAs of 2024, World War III has not happened. There have, however, been a number of [close calls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_III#Historical_close_calls) that are widely regarded as having been narrowly-missed, possible catalysts for such a conflict.\n\nMeanwhile, some experts have warned that AGI could bring military instability, for example, through nuclear deterrence [being undermined](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26286/5y-after-agi-nuclear-deterrence-undermined/), or through a [multipolar](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18042/ai-singleton-or-multipolar/) bargaining failure:\n\n> Early AGIs might fail to make compatible demands with each other in high-stakes negotiations (we call this a \u201cbargaining failure\u201d). Bargaining failures can have catastrophic consequences, including great power conflicts, or AI triggering a [flash war](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LpM3EAakwYdS6aRKf/what-multipolar-failure-looks-like-and-robust-agent-agnostic#Flash_wars). [\u2014Mac\u00e9, DiGiovanni and Clifton, 2024](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uGfDx9es2pnYWaWJr/individually-incentivized-safe-pareto-improvements-in-open#Introduction)\n\nIn 1949, after the unleashing of nuclear weaponry at the end of WWII, physicist Albert Einstein suggested that any outcome of a possible WWIII would be so dire as to revert mankind back to the Stone Age. When asked by journalist Alfred Werner what types of weapons Einstein believed World War III might be fought with, Einstein warned, \u201cI know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.\u201d\n\n(H/T @Jgalt for writing the \u201c[Will there be a \"World War Three\" before 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/world-war-three-before-2050/)\u201d question, from which this one was adapted.)",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-07-22T17:30:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2036-01-01T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any time before the day 5 years after our \u201c[When will artificial general intelligence (AGI) arrive?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/)\u201d question resolves, both of these conditions are true:\n\n1) There is a military conflict involving countries representing, in totality, either at least 30% of world GDP (in PPP), or at least 50% of world population, in any year in which the conflict is ongoing. A country is said to be \u201cinvolved\u201d if it satisfies either of the following:\n\n* Credible reports indicate that the country has experienced at least 1,000 combined civilian or military deaths directly attributed to combat in the war (not including indirect deaths such as via famine).\n* Credible reports indicate that the country has directly caused at least 1,000 combined civilian or military deaths directly attributed to combat operations it has conducted as part of the war.\n\n2) At least 10 million people\u2014civilians or military personnel\u2014have been killed in the conflict.",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26360",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.15",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "3507",
                "9524"
            ],
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "3507",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will EQRx get at least one drug approved by the FDA before the end of 2030?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3507.",
                    "background": "",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2020-01-21T23:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2026-02-23T23:34:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "From [this Chemical and Engineering News article](https://cen.acs.org/pharmaceuticals/EQRx-launches-developdrugs-steep-discount/98/web/2020/01):\n\n> Venture capitalist and serial entrepreneur Alexis Borisy has founded EQRx to develop equal or better versions of innovative medicines\u2014often called me-too drugs\u2014and sell them at a substantial discount to competing therapies. With an initial investment of $200 million from a syndicate of investors, the biotech firm plans to put 10 new, more affordable drugs on the market in the next decade.\n\nHe plans to do that unsing *technology* (ibid.):\n\n> \u201cToday, you can do a virtual screen of a billion compounds, do on-demand synthesis of all of those, and you can do it overnight in the cloud.\u201d\n\n> Once a molecule is made, Borisy points to the potential to analyze reams of clinical data to design efficient studies that can prove a drug\u2019s value to government groups and payers.\n\n> Combined, these technological efficiencies could bring down the cost of getting a drug onto the market\u2014often cited as between $2 billion and $3 billion\u2014by an order of magnitude, Borisy says. If EQRx spends, on average, $300 million to $400 million per drug, he believes the biotech firm can still be \u201cvery profitable,\u201d even as it offers its medicines at a significant discount.\n\nA [Stat article](https://www.statnews.com/2020/01/12/venture-capitalist-alexis-borisy-bring-down-drug-prices/) has this to say about EQRx's plan:\n\n> Quite simply, Borisy is going to invent and develop new drugs, and sell them for less money than the competition. He calls this \u201ca radical proposition.\u201d In any other sector, it would just be called \u201cbusiness.\u201d\n\nTo offer some counterweight, Derek Lowe (who writes probably the most famous and oldest chemistry blog, and has been working in drug discovery for decades) [has this to say](https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/01/15/eqrxs-challenge-and-my-challenge-to-them):\n\n> No, in case you were wondering, you cannot virtually screen a billion compounds overnight.\n\n> no, you cannot do \u201con-demand synthesis of all of those\u201d, either.\n\n> I will put up $500 dollars on LongBets.com against the proposition that EQRx will produce ten drugs in the next ten years.\n\nWe will ask here about a much less ambitious goal: **Will EQRx get at least one new drug approved by the FDA before the end of 2030?**\n\nIf EQRx ceases to exist before 2031, this resolves negative. Exception: if the company gets bought / merges with another before it has had a drug approved by the FDA, any drug that clearly originated in EQRx and gets approved before the deadline counts.",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3507",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.37",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "9524",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will Israel be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9524.",
                    "background": "Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of [several previous Metaculus questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&search=Embryo%20selection) and [a notebook.](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/9247/polygenic-selection-of-embryos/) \n\nOne of the most important [papers](https://www.cell.com/cell/pdf/S0092-8674(19)31210-3.pdf) on embryo selection was coauthored by Israeli, Greek, and American researchers including Hebrew University's Shai Carmi, and found an expected gain of 2.5 IQ points using 2018 polygenic scores.  It was [reported](https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Israeli-research-Can-genetic-testing-and-selection-make-your-baby-smart-608550) [on](https://www.timesofisrael.com/scientists-say-smart-and-tall-designer-babies-out-of-reach-for-now/) in the Israeli media.  In an [article on genetic engineering](https://www.docdroid.net/kkx0XperMZ/haaretz-brave-new-baby-pdf#page=2\n) in the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, Carmi is quoted as saying that the gains may be up to seven IQ points in the foreseeable future.\n\nIsrael has [generous](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S240566182030023X) [state-subsidized](https://forward.com/news/israel/347368/the-drive-to-make-the-perfect-israeli-baby/) [pre-implantation genetic diagnosis (PGD)](https://www.jpost.com/magazine/advanced-procedures-bring-hope-to-couples-with-genetic-diseases-579959) through in-vitro fertilization (IVF) for a large basket of genetic diseases.  Israel's public health insurance covers PGD for up to two children per family.  The practice spans the Israeli religious spectrum, from secular to ultra-Orthodox.  Israelis are also [avid aborters](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium.MAGAZINE-the-abortion-conundrum-how-far-israelis-go-to-ensure-their-babies-are-born-perfect-1.7362524) of fetuses with Down Syndome.\n\nIsrael had the [fastest COVID vaccine rollout in the world](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/07/israels-covid-vaccine-rollout-is-the-fastest-in-the-world.html), [leads in 21st century Nobel Prizes per capita](https://slatestarcodex.com/2017/05/29/four-nobel-truths/), has a [very developed science and technology sector](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Science_and_technology_in_Israel) and [a developed biotech industry and stem cell industry in particular](https://www.haaretz.com/.premium-stem-cell-research-a-boom-industry-in-israel-1.5238166), and is a [leader in IVF](https://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/18/world/middleeast/18israel.html#:~:text=Unlike%20countries%20where%20couples%20can,the%20procedure%20in%20the%20world.) and [fertility technology.](https://www.jpost.com/health-science/israeli-startup-looks-to-improve-ivf-for-millions-of-couples-656242) Israel is a leader in many 21st century technologies, such as [cyber](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/half-of-global-cybersecurity-investment-has-been-in-israel-pm-bennett-says-1.10546684)[security](https://www.jns.org/israel-ranks-among-strongest-global-cyber-powers/) and [desalination](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/israel-proves-the-desalination-era-is-here/).  It is expected to be early on [approving cultivated meat](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8846/approval-of-cultivated-meat-in-israel/) as well as [self-driving](https://unitedwithisrael.org/self-driving-robotaxis-to-hit-tel-aviv-in-2022/) [cars](https://www.jpost.com/jpost-tech/mobileye-unveils-new-self-driving-taxi-will-launch-in-tel-aviv-in-2022-678860).\n\nJudaism is generally bioethically permissive.  Jewish authorities [universally agree](https://www.nature.com/articles/nm0309-238b) that a preimplantation embryo does not have the same sacred title to life as an implanted embryo.  Unlike Christianity, Judaism [supports](https://www.rollcall.com/2005/06/10/evangelicals-orthodox-jews-split-on-stem-cells/) stem cell research.  Orthodox Israeli physician [Shimon Glick](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shimon_Glick) [wrote](https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-experts-pan-chinese-gene-editing-as-drastic-human-experimentation/) that it is [ethical](https://philpapers.org/rec/GLISJT) [to raise IQ using genetic engineering](https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.884.114&rep=rep1&type=pdf), and that Jewish law does not prohibit it and in fact supports it because it raises quality of life.  Orthodox and ultra-Orthodox Jewish Israelis are [avid](https://forward.com/news/israel/347368/the-drive-to-make-the-perfect-israeli-baby/) [consumers](https://www.jpost.com/magazine/advanced-procedures-bring-hope-to-couples-with-genetic-diseases-579959) of Israel's pre-implantation genetic diagnosis and of the genetic testing that [Dor Yeshorim](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dor_Yeshorim) does, and Israel has an [embryo selection company](https://www.jpost.com/health-science/israeli-startup-looks-to-improve-ivf-for-millions-of-couples-656242) started by an ultra-Orthodox mother of four.  [Tay-Sachs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tay%E2%80%93Sachs_disease), a genetic disease common among [Ashkenazi Jews](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ashkenazi_Jews), who make up about half of Israel's population and about 40% of the total population, has been [virtually eliminated](https://www.haaretz.com/1.4706480) in Israel, where only one baby with Tay-Sachs was born in 2003.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2022-01-26T05:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2040-01-01T05:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if Israel is one of the first ten countries with over a million people to have more than 10% of its newborns developed from embryos selected for polygenic scores for intelligence, according to credible reports. If no country has >10% of its newborns selected for intelligence by 2300-01-01 it resolves as ambiguous.\n\nMoreover, for the question to resolve positively, the particular procedure used for embryo selection must, in expectation, result in an increase of at least 1/5 standard deviations in IQ (i.e. 3 IQ points), according to credible evidence",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9524",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.78",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "11175",
                "13924"
            ],
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "11175",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will AI be able to watch a movie and tell you accurately what is going on before 2030?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11175.",
                    "background": "On May 31st, 2022, prominent deep learning skeptic and NYU professor emeritus Gary Marcus [challenged Elon Musk to a bet on AGI by the end of 2029](https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things?s=r). His proposed bet consisted of 5 AI achievements, of which he predicted no more than 2 would come to pass before 2030. This question is about Marcus' first prediction,\n\n> In 2029, AI will not be able to watch a movie and tell you accurately what is going on (what I called the [comprehension challenge in The New Yorker](https://www.newyorker.com/tech/annals-of-technology/what-comes-after-the-turing-test), in 2014). Who are the characters? What are their conflicts and motivations? etc.\n\nFor this challenge, we will use the [MovieQA dataset](https://arxiv.org/abs/1512.02902) as an illustrative example of a benchmark that could trigger positive resolution,\n\n> The dataset consists of 14,944 questions about 408 movies with high semantic diversity. The questions range from simpler \"Who\" did \"What\" to \"Whom\", to \"Why\" and \"How\" certain events occurred. Each question comes with a set of five possible answers; a correct one and four deceiving answers provided by human annotators.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2022-06-05T07:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2030-01-01T08:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if, before January 1st 2030, a computer program is publicly and credibly documented to have achieved at least 90.0% accuracy or above the human baseline on a benchmark comparable to the [MovieQA dataset](https://arxiv.org/abs/1512.02902), when restricted to only watching the movies tested (rather than reading plots, subtitles, scripts, or human-provided transcriptions for the movies). Any candidate benchmark must provide difficult questions that test deep comprehension, including questions of how and why, rather than mere shallow pattern matching.\n\nImportantly, this means that any candidate computer program must _not_ have been given access to media that could have reasonably been expected to spoil the plot to any of these movies during its training (for example, the Wikipedia pages for these movies). The AI is allowed to be trained on other media, such as Project Gutenberg books. This restriction is merely intended to eliminate cheating, not to require any additional capabilities beyond what Gary Marcus specified.\n\nA simple way to prove that a candidate computer program did not cheat is by showing that all the data the AI was trained on was generated prior to when the movies were released. However, this is not the only way of proving that cheating did not occur.\n\nMetaculus admins will use their discretion in determining whether a candidate computer program met these criteria. This question will be **annulled** in the event that, in the judgment of Metaculus, comparable tests have not been conducted on potentially qualifying AI systems during the specified timeframe.",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11175",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.99",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "13924",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will at least 200 Benin Bronzes go from the British Museum to Nigeria before 2030?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13924.",
                    "background": "Benin, in present-day Nigeria, was a powerful and wealthy state that had trade relations with the Portuguese since the 15th century. Benin traded ivory, gum, pepper, and cotton cloth for the Portuguese copper, brass, and other metals. In the 17th century, Benin's Oba (king) began raiding and trading for slaves from neighboring kingdoms. Benin became one of the major hubs of the slave trade in West Africa, along with Dahomey and Oyo.\n\nAfter the slave trade was abolished by Britain in 1807, Benin faced several challenges and changes. The British navy tried to suppress the illegal slave trade by patrolling the coast and intercepting slave ships. This disrupted Benin's economy and trade relations with other African states and Europe. Benin also had to deal with internal conflicts and rebellions from some of its vassal states that wanted more autonomy or independence. Benin tried to resist British colonialism by maintaining its sovereignty and culture, but it was eventually defeated by a British punitive expedition in 1897 that sacked and burned the city, looted its treasures and artworks, and deposed its Oba. Benin became part of the British protectorate of Nigeria until it gained its independence in 1960.\n\nThe Benin Bronzes were a collection of brass plaques, sculptures, and other objects looted from Benin. The bronzes are notable for their intricate and detailed designs, which often depict historical events, royal figures, and other aspects of Benin culture and history. The collection is considered to be one of the greatest examples of African art and craftsmanship, and it is highly valued by museums and collectors around the world.\n\n[According to Richard Assheton](https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/why-returning-the-benin-bronzes-is-so-complicated-j2m8ffz23),\n\n> Colonial powers initially refused to believe an African civilisation had produced these stunning works. Today, more than 900 lie in the British Museum, and others in museums and private collections all over the world.\n\n> ...\n\n> The British Museum ... has refused [to transfer away ownership of any of the bronzes], saying it is bound by law not to give away its collections.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-05-30T02:17:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2030-01-01T04:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "Resolves as **Yes** if at least 200 Benin bronzes that were formerly owned by the British Museum physically return to Nigeria before 2030.",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13924",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.36",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "22150",
                "9042"
            ],
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "22150",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will the population of the United States be higher than the People's Republic of China at any point before 2200?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22150.",
                    "background": "In 2023, the population of the United States and the People's Republic of China (China) stood at 0.33 billion and 1.41 billion respectively. However, China's population [fell by roughly 2 million in 2023](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-population-drops-2nd-year-raises-long-term-growth-concerns-2024-01-17/), indicating a faster decline in population than previously projected. [New population projections](https://theconversation.com/chinas-population-is-about-to-shrink-for-the-first-time-since-the-great-famine-struck-60-years-ago-heres-what-it-means-for-the-world-176377) estimate that by 2100, China's population [could fall by as much as 70%](https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/12/05/key-facts-about-chinas-declining-population/) to less than 500 million people in the worst case scenario.\n\nComparatively massive population declines are not limited to China; South Korea has seen repeated downward adjustments to population, a recent estimate being a [70% decline by 2100](https://thediplomat.com/2022/08/south-koreas-demographic-trends-continue-to-decline/).\n\nIn contrast, the population of the U.S. has [continued to rise](https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/dec/popchange-data-text.html), though at a slower pace compared to previous decades. The official census estimates that [the U.S. population will peak at 370 million in 2080](https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2023/population-projections.html).",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-04-15T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2200-01-01T04:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if at any point before January 1, 2200, the population of the United States is greater than the population of China according to data from the World Bank.\n\nThe population figure for the United States will be resolved using the World Bank's \"Population, total\" page for the U.S., which can be accessed [here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL?contextual=default&locations=US). The population figure for China will be resolved using the World Bank's corresponding page for that country, which can be accessed [here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL?contextual=default&locations=CN).",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22150",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.12",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "9042",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will <40% of US tax filings be filed using paid tax preparers in 2027?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9042.",
                    "background": "The US tax preparation industry is a big business, with providers of tax software making large profits, for example Intuit making [$1.6 billion](https://www.propublica.org/article/turbotax-and-others-charged-at-least-14-million-americans-for-tax-prep-that-should-have-been-free-audit-finds) from their TurboTax products in 2019. Much of this is [alleged](https://www.propublica.org/article/turbotax-and-others-charged-at-least-14-million-americans-for-tax-prep-that-should-have-been-free-audit-finds) to have come from customers who were eligible for free tax filing. Intuit has been [accused](https://www.propublica.org/article/inside-turbotax-20-year-fight-to-stop-americans-from-filing-their-taxes-for-free) of conducting a long running lobbying campaign to prevent US taxpayers from easily filing for free.\n\nThis question asks if the fraction of taxpayers using paid tax preparation services will decline significantly by the 2027 tax year.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2022-01-07T05:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2027-01-01T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "The IRS tracks how many filers used paid tax prep services. This was 52.9% of filers in the [2018 tax year](https://www.irs.gov/statistics/soi-tax-stats-tax-stats-at-a-glance). This question asks if this number will have declined below 40% when the numbers for the 2027 tax year are available.\n\nIf the IRS no longer publishes these numbers, this question will resolve ambiguously.",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9042",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.297",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "8805",
                "17325"
            ],
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "8805",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will the New York Yankees win the World Series in 2032 in exactly 6 games?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8805.",
                    "background": "In Star Trek: Voyager, Season 6 Episode 8 (One Small Step) - originally airing November 17, 1999, it is stated that the New York Yankees [win the World Series](https://memory-alpha.fandom.com/wiki/World_Series) that occurs in 2032 in 6 games.\n\nThe Yankees most recent World Series Championship was in [2009](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_World_Series), where they defeated the Philadelphia Phillies in 6 games.\n\nAre we on a road to a Star Trek Future?",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2021-12-11T06:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2032-09-01T03:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "The question resolves positively if the MLB annual championship that occurs in the year 2032 is won by a team named \"New York Yankees\" in exactly 6 games (e.g. the Yankees win 4 games, and their opponent wins 2).\n\n- If a team that was formerly named \"New York Yankees\" wins in 6 games, this question resolves negatively\n\n- If a team with a name that still refers New York city or state wins in 6 games (e.g. Brooklyn Yankees, New York State Yankees), this question resolves positively.\n\n- If the MLB changes its rules such that the World Series is played for fewer than 6 games, or more than 13 games (so it would be impossible to win in 6 games), this question resolves negatively.\n\n- If the MLB folds into smaller leagues prior to the 2032 World Series, this question resolves negatively.\n\n- If the MLB folds into a larger league prior to the 2032 World Series (such as a [Planetary Baseball League](https://memory-alpha.fandom.com/wiki/Planetary_Baseball_League)), and a team named \"New York Yankees\" still exists, if that team wins the World Series of the larger league in 6 games, this question resolves positively",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8805",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.028",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "17325",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will Major League Baseball (MLB) expand by 2030?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17325.",
                    "background": "Major League Baseball, a North American sports league, is a business worth almost [$11bn annually](https://www.forbes.com/sites/maurybrown/2023/01/10/mlb-sets-new-revenue-record-exceeding-108-billion-for-2022/). The top league of the sport known as 'America's pastime', it is one of the world's most watched sports leagues, with the 2022 World Series attracting over [11.5 million viewers](https://www.sportsmediawatch.com/2022/10/world-series-ratings-game-1-phillies-astros-viewership-fox/) per game. \n\nMLB is a 'closed league' - meaning that the number and location of teams is determined by the existing owners of the league's franchises. On occasion, MLB 'expands', meaning that the existing owners agree to add additional teams into the league, historically in exchange for a large monetary sum. This has substantial financial and cultural consequences, with vast sums of money transferred between billionaires and the citizens of new cities having the chance to root for a hometown baseball team (often in exchange for their taxpayer dollars - teams tend to be wooed to a city by the local government offering public funding for stadiums and other infrastructure).\n\nThe number of teams in MLB is currently 30. This question asks whether the number of teams playing in the league will increase as a result of expansion by 2030.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-06-09T17:53:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2030-04-01T04:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "The question resolves **Yes** if a Major League Baseball team, enfranchised during an expansion process (i.e. a totally new franchise as recognized by Major League Baseball, not an existing franchise that has moved the location of its home stadium) plays in a regular season game before or during the 2030 regular season.",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17325",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.39",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "16011",
                "8403"
            ],
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "16011",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will a Star Trek and Star Wars crossover movie or TV show be made before 2060?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/16011.",
                    "background": "[Comparison of Star Trek and Star Wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparison_of_Star_Trek_and_Star_Wars) is one of the largest topics of conversation among the science fiction fan base. Which of the two franchises is better is frequently debated among fans, and the two have a fair degree of influence on each other. The idea of a crossover film or TV program between the two franchises has been proposed since the first Star Wars film was released in 1977. Despite this, no such media has ever been produced.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-04-22T13:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2060-01-01T04:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if a feature-length film or TV/streaming series is released before January 1, 2060, in which established characters of the Star Wars and Star Trek franchises interact. If such media also includes newly-created characters and/or characters from other franchises, this question will still resolve as **Yes** if the interaction between established Star Wars and Star Trek characters plays a role in driving the plot, according to the discretion of Metaculus admins. If this does not occur before the resolution date, this question resolves as **No**.",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/16011",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.25",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "8403",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "By 2050, will at least 25% of Year-End Billboard Hot 100 songs be primarily composed by AI?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8403.",
                    "background": "Artificial intelligence has made significant advances with the recent development of language models such as GPT-3. It is widely expected that artificial intelligence will become significantly more capable in the future, and some believe that artificial intelligence may someday surpass human ability in certain areas, or even in general intelligence.\n\nNeuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about the capabilities of AI in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the):\n\n>The worst hit will be artists like writers, painters, poets, and musicians, who will have to deal with a total saturation of artistic content by AI.  By 2050 much of the words you read and content you consume will be generated by an AI [...]",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2022-01-19T21:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2050-01-01T20:16:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if, for any year between 2021 to 2049 (inclusive), 25 or more of the [Year-End Billboard Hot 100 Songs](https://www.billboard.com/charts/year-end/hot-100-songs) are created primarily by AI. \"Created Primarily by AI\" for the purpose of this question will mean having significant influence on the song's melody, harmony, rhythm, instrumental timbre and tone, and EQ mixing.  Evidence for an AI's involvement can be provided by the song credits, statements by producers or publishers, and/or reputable media reports. If the Year-End Billboard Hot 100 Songs list does not exist through 2049, Metaculus Admins may select and announce a replacement source, or resolve ambiguously at their discretion",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8403",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.65",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "3531",
                "1321"
            ],
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "3531",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will the star Betelgeuse be observed to go supernova before 2030?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3531.",
                    "background": "",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2020-01-30T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2030-01-01T07:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "In the last few months, the star Betelgeuse has [dimmed in the sky](http://www.astronomerstelegram.org/?read=13410), prompting some media outlets to speculate that it will soon be observed to go supernova. Some astronomers, such as Phil Plait, have [responded](https://www.syfy.com/syfywire/dont-panic-betelgeuse-is-almost-certainly-not-about-to-explode) by saying that it is unlikely to explode any time soon,\n\n> Even at the prodigious rates it's going through helium, it'll probably be about 100,000 years before it explodes.\n\nThis question resolves positively if one reliable media outlet reports that the star Betelgeuse has been observed exploding in the sky before 12 AM January 1st, 2030 UTC.",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3531",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.001",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "1321",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will Ray Kurzweil be proven right?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1321.",
                    "background": "",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2018-08-05T07:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2099-12-31T05:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "Ray Kurzweil is an author, computer scientist, inventor and futurist. He is best known for making what many consider to be extremely optimistic prediction about the future of technology that involve exponential growth leading up to <a href=' https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity'>technological singularity</a>, which Kurzweil predicts will happen circa. 2045. A list of Kurzweil's predictions can be found <a href='https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictions_made_by_Ray_Kurzweil'>here</a>.\n\n<strong>Will Ray Kurzweil be proven generally right in his predictions?</strong>\n\nNote that the question refers to Kurzweil's predictions as of the time of the the writing of the question. Given that 'generally right' is hard to define, the question shall use consensus forming to create its own answer.\n\n<li>If the community prediction at the time of closing is > 80%, then the questions resolves positive.</li>\n\n<li> If the community prediction at the time of closing is < 20%, then the questions resolves negative.</li>\n\n<li> If the community prediction at the time of closing is \u2265 20% and \u226480%, then a member of Metaculus staff shall decide resolution. </li>\n\nTo help reduce the vagueness of the question, Metaculus may, at its discretion, periodically survey the perceived correctness of Kurzweil's prediction, per a fixed methodology similar to that employed in [this report](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kbA6T3xpxtko36GgP/assessing-kurzweil-the-results), but with a modification to survey and weight by importance of the prediction.",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1321",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.1",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "13924",
                "16011"
            ],
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "13924",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will at least 200 Benin Bronzes go from the British Museum to Nigeria before 2030?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13924.",
                    "background": "Benin, in present-day Nigeria, was a powerful and wealthy state that had trade relations with the Portuguese since the 15th century. Benin traded ivory, gum, pepper, and cotton cloth for the Portuguese copper, brass, and other metals. In the 17th century, Benin's Oba (king) began raiding and trading for slaves from neighboring kingdoms. Benin became one of the major hubs of the slave trade in West Africa, along with Dahomey and Oyo.\n\nAfter the slave trade was abolished by Britain in 1807, Benin faced several challenges and changes. The British navy tried to suppress the illegal slave trade by patrolling the coast and intercepting slave ships. This disrupted Benin's economy and trade relations with other African states and Europe. Benin also had to deal with internal conflicts and rebellions from some of its vassal states that wanted more autonomy or independence. Benin tried to resist British colonialism by maintaining its sovereignty and culture, but it was eventually defeated by a British punitive expedition in 1897 that sacked and burned the city, looted its treasures and artworks, and deposed its Oba. Benin became part of the British protectorate of Nigeria until it gained its independence in 1960.\n\nThe Benin Bronzes were a collection of brass plaques, sculptures, and other objects looted from Benin. The bronzes are notable for their intricate and detailed designs, which often depict historical events, royal figures, and other aspects of Benin culture and history. The collection is considered to be one of the greatest examples of African art and craftsmanship, and it is highly valued by museums and collectors around the world.\n\n[According to Richard Assheton](https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/why-returning-the-benin-bronzes-is-so-complicated-j2m8ffz23),\n\n> Colonial powers initially refused to believe an African civilisation had produced these stunning works. Today, more than 900 lie in the British Museum, and others in museums and private collections all over the world.\n\n> ...\n\n> The British Museum ... has refused [to transfer away ownership of any of the bronzes], saying it is bound by law not to give away its collections.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-05-30T02:17:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2030-01-01T04:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "Resolves as **Yes** if at least 200 Benin bronzes that were formerly owned by the British Museum physically return to Nigeria before 2030.",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13924",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.36",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "16011",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will a Star Trek and Star Wars crossover movie or TV show be made before 2060?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/16011.",
                    "background": "[Comparison of Star Trek and Star Wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparison_of_Star_Trek_and_Star_Wars) is one of the largest topics of conversation among the science fiction fan base. Which of the two franchises is better is frequently debated among fans, and the two have a fair degree of influence on each other. The idea of a crossover film or TV program between the two franchises has been proposed since the first Star Wars film was released in 1977. Despite this, no such media has ever been produced.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-04-22T13:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2060-01-01T04:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if a feature-length film or TV/streaming series is released before January 1, 2060, in which established characters of the Star Wars and Star Trek franchises interact. If such media also includes newly-created characters and/or characters from other franchises, this question will still resolve as **Yes** if the interaction between established Star Wars and Star Trek characters plays a role in driving the plot, according to the discretion of Metaculus admins. If this does not occur before the resolution date, this question resolves as **No**.",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/16011",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.25",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "9042",
                "21146"
            ],
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "9042",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will <40% of US tax filings be filed using paid tax preparers in 2027?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9042.",
                    "background": "The US tax preparation industry is a big business, with providers of tax software making large profits, for example Intuit making [$1.6 billion](https://www.propublica.org/article/turbotax-and-others-charged-at-least-14-million-americans-for-tax-prep-that-should-have-been-free-audit-finds) from their TurboTax products in 2019. Much of this is [alleged](https://www.propublica.org/article/turbotax-and-others-charged-at-least-14-million-americans-for-tax-prep-that-should-have-been-free-audit-finds) to have come from customers who were eligible for free tax filing. Intuit has been [accused](https://www.propublica.org/article/inside-turbotax-20-year-fight-to-stop-americans-from-filing-their-taxes-for-free) of conducting a long running lobbying campaign to prevent US taxpayers from easily filing for free.\n\nThis question asks if the fraction of taxpayers using paid tax preparation services will decline significantly by the 2027 tax year.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2022-01-07T05:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2027-01-01T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "The IRS tracks how many filers used paid tax prep services. This was 52.9% of filers in the [2018 tax year](https://www.irs.gov/statistics/soi-tax-stats-tax-stats-at-a-glance). This question asks if this number will have declined below 40% when the numbers for the 2027 tax year are available.\n\nIf the IRS no longer publishes these numbers, this question will resolve ambiguously.",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9042",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.297",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "21146",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will a Fortune 500 Global non-tech company train a frontier AI model before 2026?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21146.",
                    "background": "To date, frontier AI models have been created exclusively by tech companies. This may change if other companies decide that having an in-house model, trained on their proprietary data, will be sufficiently valuable to warrant training their own frontier model.\n\nThe number of companies producing frontier AI models is relevant for AI safety and governance because, all else equal, more actors results in more coordination difficulties. Additionally, there being more actors makes it more likely that one of the actors will be reckless.\n\n\u2014\n\nThanks to user dschartz, whose [question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17280/frontier-ai-lab-in-china/) inspired ours.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-02-15T00:16:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2026-01-01T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any time between January 1, 2024 and January 1, 2026, there is a non-tech company that trains a frontier AI model and is in the [Fortune 500 Global list](https://fortune.com/ranking/global500/) in the year the model is first publicly known to exist.\n\nWe define a \u201cnon-tech company\u201d as a company which (a) is not in the [technology](https://fortune.com/ranking/global500/search/?sector=Technology) sector according to Fortune, and also (b) is neither Amazon nor Alibaba. (These two are classed as \u201cretail\u201d companies, but for our purposes they are still tech.)\n\nWe furthermore define a \"frontier AI model\" as one that was trained with at least one-tenth as much FLOP as the largest known model at that time. For example, as of January 2024, the largest known model is Gemini Ultra, [estimated by Epoch](https://epochai.org/data/epochdb/visualization) to have trained with 9e25 FLOP. Thus by our definition, an AI model must have been trained with at least 9e24 FLOP to count as frontier, at present. This threshold will change as the largest known model changes.\n\nA model's training compute will be established by its developer's own publication or through a credible report, for example Epoch's \u201c[Parameter, Compute and Data Trends in Machine Learning](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1AAIebjNsnJj_uKALHbXNfn3_YsT6sHXtCU0q7OIPuc4/edit#gid=177804471)\u201d database (the relevant columns being \u201cPublication date\u201d and \u201cTraining compute (FLOP)\u201d).",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21146",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.07",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "9532",
                "23749"
            ],
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "9532",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will China be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9532.",
                    "background": "Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of [several previous Metaculus questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&search=Embryo%20selection) and a [notebook](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/9247/polygenic-selection-of-embryos/).  A [previous Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7925/china-and-designer-babies/) asked if most of the first 100 newborns selected for intelligence would be born in China.\n\n[Some commentators](https://www.edge.org/response-detail/23838) have suggested that China, which has a quickly growing [biotechnology industry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biotechnology_industry_in_China), will embrace embryo selection for intelligence.  The [Beijing Genomic Institute](https://www.vice.com/en/article/5gw8vn/chinas-taking-over-the-world-with-a-massive-genetic-engineering-program) had a [cognitive genomics project](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BGI_Group#Cognitive_Genomics_Project), though it was never completed.  In 2019, Chinese scientist He Jiankui created the world's first CRISPR babies, but the Chinese government [jailed him for three years](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-50944461).  Nevertheless, China has embraced [embryo selection for diseases](https://www.nature.com/articles/548272a) through preimplantation genetic diagnosis (PGD).  While polling on mainland China is [restricted](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_research_and_opinion_polling_in_China), a [2020 Pew poll](https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2020/12/10/biotechnology-research-viewed-with-caution-globally-but-most-support-gene-editing-for-babies-to-treat-disease/) found Taiwan and Singapore, which like China are mostly [Han](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Han_Chinese), have a relatively high level of support for \"changing a baby's characteristics\" to improve intelligence.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2022-01-26T05:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2040-01-01T05:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if China is the first country with over a million people to have more than 10% of its newborns developed from embryos selected for polygenic scores for intelligence, according to credible reports. If no country has >10% of its newborns selected for intelligence by 2300-01-01 it resolves as ambiguous.\n\nMoreover, for the question to resolve positively, the particular procedure used for embryo selection must, in expectation, result in an increase of at least 1/5 standard deviations in IQ (i.e. 3 IQ points), according to credible evidence",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9532",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.15",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "23749",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will an anthropomorphic robot with artificial intelligence win in a football (soccer) penalty shootout against a professional human player before January 1, 2035?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/23749.",
                    "background": "Artificial intelligence has already beaten humans in games such as chess ([Deep Blue PC, 1997](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0004370201001291)), Go ([AlphaGo description](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature24270)) or Texas Hold'em ([Libratus AI](https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aao1733)). However, all these games are logical or intellectual. They do not require special mechanisms to interact with other objects, such as a ball in football. There are already prototypes of humanoid robots that demonstrate the skills of playing football ([NewScientist](https://www.newscientist.com/article/2426328-watch-mini-humanoid-robots-showing-off-their-football-skills/)). The question is whether in about 10 years this area will be able to progress in such a way as to create a humanoid capable of playing football as a human as a goalkeeper or striker.\n\nSee also Metaculus: [When will robots win a game of association football (soccer) against professional human players?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19930/robots-beat-humans-in-football/)",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-05-25T11:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2034-12-30T10:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "For a positive outcome, a video must be released before January 1, 2035, showing an anthropomorphic robot defeating a professional human football player in a 1-on-1 football penalty shootout by either: \n\n1. the robot acting as a striker who takes a penalty kick.\n\n1. the robot acting as a goalkeeper.\n\nA negative outcome assumes that the event described above did not occur.\nThe deadline for this criterion is January 1, 2035.",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/23749",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.75",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "25801",
                "4524"
            ],
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "25801",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will the world remain \"normal\" through 2030, according to specified criteria?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/25801.",
                    "background": "As of July 2, 2024, the questions had the following probabilities assessed by the Metaculus Community: \n\n- [Development of artificial general intelligence](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/) - Cumulative probability of 40% before 2030.\n\n- A [10% reduction in the human population](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/global-population-decline-10-by-2100/) - 36% chance of happening before 2100.\n\n- [Global GDP increases by 30% or more in one year](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5159/date-of-gwp-growth-over-130/) - 13% cumulative probability before 2030.\n\n- The [discovery of alien technosignatures](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1629/alien-technosignature-detection-by-2050/) - 3% chance of happening before 2050.\n\n- A [worldview-shattering explanation for UAPs (UFOs)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18075/shocking-uap-explanation-by-july-2028/) - 1.4% before July 22, 2028.\n\n- [World War III](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/world-war-three-before-2050/) - 25% chance before 2050.\n\n- A [nuclear weapon is detonated as an act of war](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4779/at-least-1-nuclear-detonation-in-war-by-2050/) - 23% before 2050.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-07-05T11:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2029-12-31T19:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if **none** of the following occur before January 1, 2030:\n\n- The **development of artificial general intelligence**, which will be considered to occur if the question *[When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/)* resolves to a date before January 1, 2030.\n- A **10% reduction in the human population**, which will be considered to occur if the question *[By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/global-population-decline-10-by-2100/)* resolves as Yes before January 1, 2030.\n- Global **GDP increases by 30% or more in one year**, which will be considered to occur if the question *[In which year will the world's real GDP first exceed 130% of its highest level from any previous year?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5159/date-of-gwp-growth-over-130/)* resolves to a date before January 1, 2030.\n- The **discovery of alien technosignatures**, which will be considered to occur if the question *[Will alien technosignatures be detected before 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1629/alien-technosignature-detection-by-2050/)* resolves as Yes before January 1, 2030.\n- A **worldview-shattering explanation for UAPs** becomes accepted, which will be considered to occur if the question *[Will Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena have an ontologically-shocking explanation?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18075/shocking-uap-explanation-by-july-2028/)* resolves as **Yes**.\n - **World War III**, which will be considered to occur if the question *[Will there be a \"World War Three\" before 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/world-war-three-before-2050/)* resolves as **Yes** before January 1, 2030.\n- A **nuclear weapon is detonated as an act of war**, which will be considered to occur if the question *[Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4779/at-least-1-nuclear-detonation-in-war-by-2050/)* resolves as **Yes** before January 1, 2030.\n\nThis question will resolve as **No** (meaning this is no longer a \"normal\" world) if one or more of the above Metaculus questions has positively resolved before January 1, 2030.",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/25801",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.5",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "4524",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will the US conduct a nuclear test explosion before 2030?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4524.",
                    "background": "[Trinity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trinity_(nuclear_test)) was the first nuclear weapon test. The test was conducted above ground on July 16, 1945 on what is now known as the White Sands Missile Range. Since Trinity, over 2,000 nuclear tests have been [conducted](https://www.fastcompany.com/3049706/visualized-every-haunting-nuclear-bomb-detonation-since-1945) world wide. \n\nThe US has conducted over 1,000 nuclear tests. The final test to be conducted by the US, code-name [Divder](https://www.ctbto.org/specials/testing-times/23-september-1992-last-us-nuclear-test), took place on September 23, 1992. Soon after, Gearge H. W. Bush  [declared a moratorium](https://www.thereaganvision.org/u-s-nuclear-weapons-testing-moratorium/) on nuclear weapons testing. In 1996, the US signed the [Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty](https://www.nti.org/learn/treaties-and-regimes/comprehensive-nuclear-test-ban-treaty-ctbt/) which bans any type of nuclear explosion. To date, the treaty has not been ratified by the appropriate countries (including the US) and has [not yet entered into force](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comprehensive_Nuclear-Test-Ban_Treaty).\n\nThe decision to end nuclear weapons testing has not been recommended by everyone. One of the [core missions](https://www.energy.gov/nnsa/missions/maintaining-stockpile) of the National Nuclear Security Administration is to \"ensure the United States maintains a safe, secure, and reliable nuclear stockpile through the application of unparalleled science, technology, engineering, and manufacturing.\" This is largely accomplished through [super computers](https://www.discovermagazine.com/technology/testing-nuclear-weapons-is-more-important-than-ever). However, some [argue](https://www.heritage.org/arms-control/report/keeping-nuclear-testing-the-table-national-security-imperative) that weapons tests are still needed to accomplish this mission.\n\nMore recently, there have been [reports](https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-administration-considered-a-nuclear-bomb-test-washington-post-2020-5) that the Trump administration has considered performing a nuclear test explosion in response to potential low-yield tests from Russia and China.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2020-06-02T15:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2029-12-31T13:01:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively to verification of a nuclear explosion by the CTBTO, the UN, or if an official government statement from the US is issued confirming the test. The question will resolve as ambiguous if two or more other countries accuse the US of performing a nuclear test explosion but there is no verification. Otherwise, this question will resolve negatively",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4524",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.07",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "17519",
                "9042"
            ],
            "source": "metaculus",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "17519",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will the UK housing market crash before July 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17519.",
                    "background": "As of 19 June 2023, the [Rightmove House Price Index](https://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/house-price-index/) indicates that the average asking price for a property in the UK is \u00a3372,812.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2023-06-22T16:51:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-06-30T22:59:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if, for any month before July 2025, the [Rightmove House Price Index](https://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/house-price-index/) indicates that the National average asking price for houses is equal to or less than \u00a3260,968; a decline of 30% from June 2023 levels.",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17519",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.001",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "9042",
                    "source": "metaculus",
                    "question": "Will <40% of US tax filings be filed using paid tax preparers in 2027?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9042.",
                    "background": "The US tax preparation industry is a big business, with providers of tax software making large profits, for example Intuit making [$1.6 billion](https://www.propublica.org/article/turbotax-and-others-charged-at-least-14-million-americans-for-tax-prep-that-should-have-been-free-audit-finds) from their TurboTax products in 2019. Much of this is [alleged](https://www.propublica.org/article/turbotax-and-others-charged-at-least-14-million-americans-for-tax-prep-that-should-have-been-free-audit-finds) to have come from customers who were eligible for free tax filing. Intuit has been [accused](https://www.propublica.org/article/inside-turbotax-20-year-fight-to-stop-americans-from-filing-their-taxes-for-free) of conducting a long running lobbying campaign to prevent US taxpayers from easily filing for free.\n\nThis question asks if the fraction of taxpayers using paid tax preparation services will decline significantly by the 2027 tax year.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2022-01-07T05:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2027-01-01T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "The IRS tracks how many filers used paid tax prep services. This was 52.9% of filers in the [2018 tax year](https://www.irs.gov/statistics/soi-tax-stats-tax-stats-at-a-glance). This question asks if this number will have declined below 40% when the numbers for the 2027 tax year are available.\n\nIf the IRS no longer publishes these numbers, this question will resolve ambiguously.",
                    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9042",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.297",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The community prediction.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "1363",
            "source": "infer",
            "question": "Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/questions/1363.",
            "background": "The chief of Myanmar\u2019s military junta, Min Aung Hlaing, declared that the country would hold elections by August 2023 as part of a broader pledge to restore democracy in the country (<a href=\"https://www.dw.com/en/myanmar-junta-promises-elections-by-2023/a-58720116\" target=\"_blank\">Deutsche Welle</a>). However, the junta extended the state of emergency for six months in February 2023 and again in July 2023, delaying elections beyond 2023 (<a href=\"https://apnews.com/article/myanmar-military-state-of-emergency-extend-c860a06985f42265088b53c0ea80029e\" target=\"_blank\">AP News</a>). Officials have stated that the election may not occur until a nationwide census is completed in 2024 (<a href=\"https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-02/myanmar-census-will-increase-surveillance-of-junta-opponents/102923250\" target=\"_blank\">ABC Australia</a>).\u00a0\r\n    \r\n  <div><br></div><div><b>Additional Reading:\u00a0</b></div><ul>\r\n<li>\r\n<a href=\"https://www.csis.org/analysis/myanmars-precipice-stalemate-and-internal-strife-compelling-military-toward-election\" target=\"_blank\">Myanmar's Precipice: The Stalemate and Internal Strife Compelling the Military toward an Election</a> (Center for Strategic and International Studies)\u00a0</li>\r\n<li>\r\n<a href=\"https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/census-10242023154556.html\" target=\"_blank\">Pilot opposition suggests no meaningful census for Myanmar polls</a> (Radio Free Asia)</li>\r\n</ul><div><br></div><div><b>Resolution Criteria:</b></div><div>This question will only resolve once voting has begun for a nationwide general election (including early voting) or the 1 July 2025 deadline has passed. It will not resolve on an official announcement of an election date. This question will resolve as \"yes\" if election voting occurs anywhere in the country, even if voting is canceled in some locations.</div><div><br></div>",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-01-02T17:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-07-01T04:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "If voting is cancelled in some locations due to the armed conflict or security concerns (e.g., if the junta is unable to conduct elections in rebel-held areas), but the election is otherwise held at a national level, then the question will still be resolved as \u201cYes\u201d. For example, voting was cancelled in multiple locations during the 2020 general elections, but a national election was otherwise held (<a href=\"https://www.usip.org/publications/2020/11/election-cancellations-rakhine-state-could-signal-trouble-myanmar\">USIP</a>, <a href=\"https://www.tni.org/files/publication-downloads/myanmar_policy_briefing_24_the_2020_general_election_in_myanmar.pdf\">TNI</a>). If something similar were to happen again, this question would be resolved as \u201cYes\u201d.",
            "url": "https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/questions/1363",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0125",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The crowd forecast.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website INFER Public. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "1413",
            "source": "infer",
            "question": "Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/questions/1413.",
            "background": "In March 2024, Vladimir Putin was re-elected to serve a new six year term (<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-presidential-vote-starts-final-day-with-accusations-kyiv-sabotage-2024-03-17/\" target=\"_blank\">Reuters</a>). This comes after Putin signed into law in 2021 a change to the Russian constitution that reset his term limits, allowing him to run in 2024 and possibly 2030 (<a href=\"https://www.cbsnews.com/news/vladimir-putin-president-russia-signs-law-allowing-2-more-presidential-terms/\" target=\"_blank\">CBS</a>, <a href=\"https://apnews.com/article/russia-putin-signs-law-allows-2-more-terms-d9acdada71b75c3daeafb389782fed4b\" target=\"_blank\">AP News</a>). However, the full impact of the war in Ukraine, Russia\u2019s economic problems, and domestic instability remains to be seen (<a href=\"https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/russia-tomorrow/five-scenarios-for-russias-future/\" target=\"_blank\">Atlantic Council</a>, <a href=\"https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/putin-and-russias-future\" target=\"_blank\">Wilson Center</a>).\u00a0\r\n    \r\n  <div><br></div><div><b>Resolution Criteria: \u00a0</b></div><div>This question will be resolved using open-source news media reports.</div>",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-07-09T16:30:00+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-07-01T04:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/questions/1413",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0064",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The crowd forecast.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website INFER Public. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "1385",
            "source": "infer",
            "question": "Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/questions/1385.",
            "background": "Open RAN is an effort to push the mobile network industry away from vendor lock-in and towards interoperability, i.e., to allow mobile networks to use equipment from multiple companies instead of having to buy a completely proprietary solution from only one vendor (<a href=\"https://www.networkworld.com/article/970200/what-is-open-ran.html\" target=\"_blank\">Network World</a>, <a href=\"https://www.juniper.net/us/en/research-topics/what-is-open-ran.html\" target=\"_blank\">Juniper Networks</a>). Huawei, the world\u2019s leading 5G equipment manufacturer, has expressed skepticism towards open RAN efforts in the past (<a href=\"https://www.lightreading.com/open-ran/huawei-gives-another-thumbs-down-to-open-ran-or-so-it-says\" target=\"_blank\">Light Reading</a>, <a href=\"https://strandconsult.dk/does-huawei-not-believe-in-open-ran-or-is-just-playing-poker-with-the-o-ran-alliance-and-policymakers/\" target=\"_blank\">Strand Consult</a>). In February 2024, Huawei dismissed speculation that plans to support open RAN were forthcoming (<a href=\"https://www.telecomtv.com/content/open-ran/huawei-denies-open-ran-support-speculation-49795/\" target=\"_blank\">Telecom TV</a>).\u00a0\r\n    \r\n  <div><br></div><div>The <a href=\"https://www.o-ran.org/about\" target=\"_blank\">O-RAN Alliance</a>\u00a0(O-RAN) is an organization made up of mobile network operators, vendors, and academic and research institutions that is working to move the industry towards open RAN architecture. Huawei is not a member of O-RAN, despite the fact that rival telecom equipment manufacturers Nokia, Ericsson, and ZTE, as well as China\u2019s major mobile network operators are all members of the Alliance (<a href=\"https://www.o-ran.org/membership\" target=\"_blank\">O-RAN Membership</a>). Some view O-RAN as a U.S.-backed effort to tackle Huawei\u2019s dominance in the industry but others have noted that Chinese influence within O-RAN may scupper these efforts (<a href=\"https://www.gizchina.com/2024/03/19/breaking-down-operation-o-ran-how-the-us-aims-to-level-the-playing-field-against-huawei/\" target=\"_blank\">GizChina</a>, <a href=\"https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20220113PD207/5g-o-ran-china-telecom-service_-infrastructure.html\" target=\"_blank\">DigiTimes</a>, <a href=\"https://ecipe.org/blog/chinas-participation-o-ran/\" target=\"_blank\">ECIPE</a>).</div><div><br></div><div><b>Resolution Criteria:\u00a0</b></div><div>This question will be resolved as \u201cYes\u201d if Huawei or the O-RAN Alliance announce a collaboration between them on or before 1 October 2025. Such a collaboration might include, but is not limited to, Huawei joining the O-RAN Alliance, testing or developing equipment with O-RAN standards, or making financial or resource commitments. Examples of past announcements of other organizations collaborating with O-RAN include O-RAN\u2019s collaborations with <a href=\"https://www.atis.org/press-releases/atis-and-o-ran-alliance-broaden-cooperative-efforts/\" target=\"_blank\">ATIS</a>, <a href=\"https://www.smallcellforum.org/press-releases/scf-and-oran-alliance/\" target=\"_blank\">SCF</a>, and the <a href=\"https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200225005180/en/The-O-RAN-Alliance-and-the-Telecom-Infra-Project-TIP-Reach-New-Level-of-Collaboration-for-Open-Radio-Access-Networks\" target=\"_blank\">Telecom Infra Project</a>. Statements by Huawei that they intend to explore open RAN projects unrelated to the O-RAN Alliance will not count towards resolution.</div><div><br></div>",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-04-01T19:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-10-01T04:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/questions/1385",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0222",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The crowd forecast.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website INFER Public. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "1386",
            "source": "infer",
            "question": "Will a North American testing center (OTIC) issue an O-RAN Certificate between 1 April 2024 and 31 March 2025?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/questions/1386.",
            "background": "\r\n    \r\n    \r\n    The <a href=\"https://www.o-ran.org/about\" target=\"_blank\">O-RAN Alliance</a> (O-RAN) is an organization that creates standards for telecommunication technology to ensure that mobile network telecommunications equipment operate within an open architecture and are interoperable between vendors. One way that manufacturers can show that a product complies with O-RAN standards is by obtaining an <a href=\"https://www.o-ran.org/testing-integration#certification-badging-program\" target=\"_blank\">O-RAN Certificate</a> from one of O-RAN\u2019s Open Testing and Integration Centres (OTIC). In August 2023, O-RAN announced the opening of four new OTICs in the U.S. (<a href=\"https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20230817436719/en/O-RAN-ALLIANCE-Welcomes-Four-New-OTICs-In-North-America\" target=\"_blank\">Business Wire</a>). However, no companies have received certificates from an OTIC in the U.S. to date.<br><div><br></div><div><b>Resolution Criteria: \u00a0</b></div><div>This question will be resolved using the <a href=\"https://www.o-ran.org/testing-integration#certification-badging-program\" target=\"_blank\">O-RAN Certification and Badging Catalogue</a>. To count towards resolution, the catalog entry must show the following:</div><ul>\r\n<li>\u201cDate of issued certificate\u201d must be on or after 2024-04-01 and on or before 2025-03-31</li>\r\n<li>\u201cType\u201d must be \u201cCertificate\u201d</li>\r\n<li>\u201cOTIC name\u201d must be any of the North American OTICs, which are listed <a href=\"https://www.o-ran.org/testing-integration#otics-list\" target=\"_blank\">here</a>\r\n</li>\r\n</ul><div>In the event that the question is not resolved before the question closes for forecasting, the INFER team will wait until late April to resolve this question to allow for delays in updating the catalog. Note that the question will be resolved as of the \u201cDate of issued certificate\u201d listed in the catalog.</div><div><br></div>\r\n  \r\n  \r\n  ",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-04-01T19:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-04-01T04:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/questions/1386",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.09580000000000001",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The crowd forecast.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website INFER Public. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "1401",
            "source": "infer",
            "question": "Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/questions/1401.",
            "background": "\r\n    \r\n    \r\n  \r\n    Open RAN is an effort to push the mobile network industry away from vendor lock-in and towards interoperability, i.e., to allow mobile networks to use equipment from multiple companies instead of having to buy a completely proprietary solution from only one vendor (<a href=\"https://www.networkworld.com/article/970200/what-is-open-ran.html\" target=\"_blank\">Network World</a>, <a href=\"https://www.juniper.net/us/en/research-topics/what-is-open-ran.html\" target=\"_blank\">Juniper Networks</a>). Huawei, the world\u2019s leading 5G equipment manufacturer, has expressed skepticism towards Open RAN efforts in the past (<a href=\"https://www.lightreading.com/open-ran/huawei-gives-another-thumbs-down-to-open-ran-or-so-it-says\" target=\"_blank\">Light Reading</a>, <a href=\"https://strandconsult.dk/does-huawei-not-believe-in-open-ran-or-is-just-playing-poker-with-the-o-ran-alliance-and-policymakers/\" target=\"_blank\">Strand Consult</a>). In February 2024, Huawei dismissed speculation that plans to support Open RAN were forthcoming (<a href=\"https://www.telecomtv.com/content/open-ran/huawei-denies-open-ran-support-speculation-49795/\" target=\"_blank\">Telecom TV</a>).\u00a0\r\n    \r\n  <div><br></div><div><b>Resolution Criteria:\u00a0</b></div><div>This question will be resolved as \u201cYes\u201d if Huawei sells or announces a commercial Open RAN equipment offering before 1 January 2027. Announcements about research plans or trials of Open RAN equipment will not count.</div>\r\n  \r\n  ",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-05-20T20:06:44+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2027-01-01T05:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/questions/1401",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.11610000000000001",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The crowd forecast.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website INFER Public. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "1414",
            "source": "infer",
            "question": "On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world\u2019s most valuable company by market cap?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/questions/1414.",
            "background": "\r\n    \r\n    \r\n    Market capitalization (or \u201cmarket cap\u201d) is a way of measuring the size of a company by calculating the total value of a company\u2019s shares on the open market (<a href=\"https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/marketcapitalization.asp\" target=\"_blank\">Investopedia</a>, <a href=\"https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/trading-investing/market-cap\" target=\"_blank\">Fidelity</a>). A global ranking of companies by market capitalization is available on <a href=\"https://companiesmarketcap.com\" target=\"_blank\">CompaniesMarketCap</a>.\u00a0\r\n    \r\n  <div><br></div><div>Nvidia has become an essential player in artificial intelligence, as the technologies the company produces underpin many of the major advancements and applications of AI (<a href=\"https://www.plus500.com/en/instruments/nvda/nvidia-artificial-intelligence-contributions~2\" target=\"_blank\">Plus500</a>, <a href=\"https://www.forbes.com/sites/timbajarin/2023/03/29/why-nvidia-matters-for-the-future-of-ai/\" target=\"_blank\">Forbes</a>). The demand for AI chips has skyrocketed Nvidia\u2019s value in recent months, leading it to briefly become the world\u2019s largest company by market cap in June 2024, before falling back to third behind Microsoft and Apple (<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/18/nvidia-passes-microsoft-in-market-cap-is-most-valuable-public-company.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNBC</a>, <a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/07/03/nvidia-just-became-the-largest-company-on-the-stoc/\" target=\"_blank\">The Motley Fool</a>).\u00a0</div><div><br></div><div>Many expect the value of Nvidia to continue to rise, with some predicting market caps as high as $5 trillion by 2026 or $10 trillion by 2030 (<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/06/19/prediction-nvidia-five-trillion-generative-ai/\" target=\"_blank\">The Motley Fool</a>, <a href=\"https://www.forbes.com/sites/bethkindig/2024/06/07/prediction-nvidia-stock-will-reach-10-trillion-market-cap-by-2030/\" target=\"_blank\">Forbes</a>). However, others have suggested that we may be in an AI bubble and that its costs and unclear value could cause Nvidia\u2019s value to fall back to earth (<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-nvidia-investors-can-learn-from-the-roaring-1920s-and-the-radio-bubble-206aaf79\" target=\"_blank\">MarketWatch</a>, <a href=\"https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/nvidia-ai-stocks-bubble-james-ferguson-intel-cisco-chatgpt-2024-7\" target=\"_blank\">Business Insider</a>).</div><div><br></div><div><b>Resolution Criteria: \u00a0</b></div><div>This question will be resolved by comparing market capitalizations on <a href=\"https://companiesmarketcap.com\" target=\"_blank\">CompaniesMarketCap</a> on 31 May 2025. Note that 31 May 2025 is a Saturday, so market caps will be based on the end-of-day stock prices on 30 May 2025.</div>\r\n  \r\n  \r\n  ",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-07-09T16:30:00+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-05-03T04:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/questions/1414",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.1884",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The crowd forecast.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website INFER Public. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "1461",
            "source": "infer",
            "question": "Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/questions/1461.",
            "background": "For the purposes of this question, an economic collapse is defined as ANY one of these scenarios occurring:\r\n    \r\n  <ul>\r\n<li>Egypt\u2019s main stock market index, the EGX 30, decreases in value by at least 30% over one month.</li>\r\n<li>Egypt\u2019s annual headline inflation rate reaches 50%.</li>\r\n<li>Egypt enters into default on its external debts.</li>\r\n</ul><div><br></div><div>Egypt is facing significant economic challenges, including high inflation and currency depreciation. As of August 2024, the annual headline inflation rate rose to 26.2%, following a peak of 38% in September 2023 (<a href=\"https://tradingeconomics.com/egypt/inflation-cpi\" target=\"_blank\">Trading Economics</a>). The Egyptian pound has lost about 50% of its value over the past two years, contributing to severe cost-of-living increases. (<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/05/the-egyptian-pound-is-amongst-the-worst-performing-currencies-in-2023.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNBC</a>).\u00a0</div><div><br></div><div>The EGX 30, Egypt's primary stock market index, has shown volatility, with analysts warning that continued instability could lead to sharp declines. Additionally, Egypt has quadrupled its external debt since 2015, and is equivalent to about 43% of GDP (<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/egypts-foreign-debt-rises-35-billion-last-quarter-2023-2024-05-09/#:~:text=Total%20foreign%20debt%20rose%20to,and%20support%20an%20overvalued%20currency.\" target=\"_blank\">Reuters</a>). These factors raise concerns about the potential for an economic collapse if significant adverse developments occur.</div><div><br></div><div><b>Resolution Criteria:\u00a0</b></div><div>This question will be resolved \u201cYes\u201d if any of the following criteria are met:</div><ul>\r\n<li>\r\n<b>EGX 30 decline of at least 30% over one month: </b>The closing price of the <a href=\"https://www.egx.com.eg/en/Indices.aspx\" target=\"_blank\">EGX 30</a> on the last trading day of the month is at least 30% lower than its price on the last closing day of the previous month. More historical data on the EGX 30\u2019s prices is available on <a href=\"https://www.investing.com/indices/egx30-historical-data\" target=\"_blank\">Investing.com</a>.</li>\r\n<li>\r\n<b>Egypt\u2019s inflation reaches 50%: </b>Egypt\u2019s annual headline urban inflation rate (\u201cHeadline (y/y)\u201d) for any given month is at least 50%, as reported by the <a href=\"https://www.cbe.org.eg/en/economic-research/statistics/inflation-rates\" target=\"_blank\">Central Bank of Egypt</a>. Historical data is available <a href=\"https://www.cbe.org.eg/en/economic-research/statistics/inflation-rates/historical-data\" target=\"_blank\">here</a>.\u00a0</li>\r\n<li>\r\n<b>Egypt defaults on external debts: </b>Credible financial news sources or international financial institutions (such as the IMF, World Bank, or major credit rating agencies) report that the country\u2019s government has entered a form of sovereign default, such as by missing a payment on external debt obligations and not making the payment within an applicable grace period or by announcing a moratorium on external debt payments. A default will be considered to have occurred at the earliest instance reported by a major financial news source or institution.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n  ",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-10-07T20:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2026-01-01T05:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/questions/1461",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.052700000000000004",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The crowd forecast.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website INFER Public. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "1432",
            "source": "infer",
            "question": "Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/questions/1432.",
            "background": "\r\n    Currently, China\u2019s only military base in Africa is in Djibouti, for which construction was confirmed to begin in February 2016 (<a href=\"https://thediplomat.com/2016/02/confirmed-construction-begins-on-chinas-first-overseas-military-base-in-djibouti/\" target=\"_blank\">The Diplomat</a>). Since the establishment of its military base in Djibouti in 2017, China has shown interest in expanding its military presence in Africa, with significant investments in commercial ports and infrastructure across the continent (<a href=\"https://www.usip.org/publications/2024/01/china-eyeing-second-military-base-africa\" target=\"_blank\">USIP</a>, <a href=\"https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/chinas-maritime-expansion-an-emerging-security-dilemma/\" target=\"_blank\">Geopolitical Monitor</a>).\u00a0\r\n    \r\n  <div><br></div><div>In recent years, U.S. intelligence reports have indicated that China is considering establishing a military base in Equatorial Guinea, possibly in Bata, which is already home to a Chinese-built deep-water commercial port (<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-seeks-first-military-base-on-africas-atlantic-coast-u-s-intelligence-finds-11638726327\" target=\"_blank\">Wall Street Journal</a>, <a href=\"https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/2969935/general-says-china-is-seeking-a-naval-base-in-west-africa/\" target=\"_blank\">U.S. Department of Defense</a>). However, while China has continued to invest heavily in trade and infrastructure projects in the country, plans for such a base have not been confirmed (<a href=\"https://thediplomat.com/2024/06/china-and-equatorial-guinea-why-their-new-comprehensive-strategic-partnership-matters/\" target=\"_blank\">The Diplomat</a>, <a href=\"https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/03/03/china-pla-navy-base-west-africa-atlantic-equatorial-guinea/\" target=\"_blank\">Foreign Policy</a>). More recent U.S. government reports have indicated that China may be pursuing a military base in neighboring Gabon (<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/world/africa/u-s-china-tensions-have-a-new-front-a-naval-base-in-africa-616e9e77\" target=\"_blank\">Wall Street Journal</a>, <a href=\"https://thediplomat.com/2024/02/china-continues-its-search-for-a-maritime-military-presence-in-west-africa/\" target=\"_blank\">The Diplomat</a>). Other possible locations include Angola, Namibia, Kenya, and Tanzania (<a href=\"https://africacenter.org/spotlight/considerations-prospective-chinese-naval-base-africa/\" target=\"_blank\">Africa Center</a>, <a href=\"https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/national/article/2001487345/pentagon-jittery-over-chinas-military-ambitions-in-kenya\" target=\"_blank\">The Standard</a>, <a href=\"https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2023/07/31/chinese-military-naval-bases-in-africa-and-us-indian-naval-influence-around-the-world/\" target=\"_blank\">Modern Diplomacy</a>).\u00a0</div><div><br></div><div><b>Resolution Criteria: \u00a0</b></div><div>This question will be resolved using open-source news reports and/or official government statements indicating that a groundbreaking ceremony has taken place or that construction has begun on a military facility for use by the People\u2019s Liberation Army in an African country other than Djibouti.\u00a0</div><div><br></div><div>Additionally, the following scenarios <b>will</b> count towards resolution:\u00a0</div><ul>\r\n<li>The expansion, conversion, or transfer of an existing port or military facility to allow for use by the People\u2019s Liberation Army, whether for their exclusive use or dual use.</li>\r\n<li>Reports that such a facility has been established or is operational, with no previous confirmation of an agreement or construction.\u00a0</li>\r\n</ul><div><br></div><div>The following scenarios <b>will NOT</b> count towards resolution:</div><ul>\r\n<li>Reports that negotiations are underway or that an agreement has been reached.\u00a0</li>\r\n<li>Facilities used by Chinese personnel on UN peacekeeping missions will not count towards resolution.</li>\r\n<li>Reports that construction is underway on a suspected Chinese overseas military facility <b>will not</b> count unless or until such a facility is confirmed by statements from the Chinese or the relevant African country\u2019s government.\u00a0</li>\r\n</ul><div><br></div><div>Additionally, for the purposes of this question:</div><ul>\r\n<li>Chinese officials may use the terms \u201clogistical\u201d or \u201csupport\u201d facility rather than a \u201cmilitary base\u201d, but any facility constructed for use by the People\u2019s Liberation Army will be considered a military base.</li>\r\n<li>An \u201cAfrican country\u201d includes African island nations (e.g., Seychelles, Cabo Verde, Madagascar, etc.).</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n  ",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-08-29T19:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2027-01-01T05:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/questions/1432",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.3703",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The crowd forecast.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website INFER Public. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "1386",
                "1401"
            ],
            "source": "infer",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "1386",
                    "source": "infer",
                    "question": "Will a North American testing center (OTIC) issue an O-RAN Certificate between 1 April 2024 and 31 March 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/questions/1386.",
                    "background": "\r\n    \r\n    \r\n    The <a href=\"https://www.o-ran.org/about\" target=\"_blank\">O-RAN Alliance</a> (O-RAN) is an organization that creates standards for telecommunication technology to ensure that mobile network telecommunications equipment operate within an open architecture and are interoperable between vendors. One way that manufacturers can show that a product complies with O-RAN standards is by obtaining an <a href=\"https://www.o-ran.org/testing-integration#certification-badging-program\" target=\"_blank\">O-RAN Certificate</a> from one of O-RAN\u2019s Open Testing and Integration Centres (OTIC). In August 2023, O-RAN announced the opening of four new OTICs in the U.S. (<a href=\"https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20230817436719/en/O-RAN-ALLIANCE-Welcomes-Four-New-OTICs-In-North-America\" target=\"_blank\">Business Wire</a>). However, no companies have received certificates from an OTIC in the U.S. to date.<br><div><br></div><div><b>Resolution Criteria: \u00a0</b></div><div>This question will be resolved using the <a href=\"https://www.o-ran.org/testing-integration#certification-badging-program\" target=\"_blank\">O-RAN Certification and Badging Catalogue</a>. To count towards resolution, the catalog entry must show the following:</div><ul>\r\n<li>\u201cDate of issued certificate\u201d must be on or after 2024-04-01 and on or before 2025-03-31</li>\r\n<li>\u201cType\u201d must be \u201cCertificate\u201d</li>\r\n<li>\u201cOTIC name\u201d must be any of the North American OTICs, which are listed <a href=\"https://www.o-ran.org/testing-integration#otics-list\" target=\"_blank\">here</a>\r\n</li>\r\n</ul><div>In the event that the question is not resolved before the question closes for forecasting, the INFER team will wait until late April to resolve this question to allow for delays in updating the catalog. Note that the question will be resolved as of the \u201cDate of issued certificate\u201d listed in the catalog.</div><div><br></div>\r\n  \r\n  \r\n  ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-04-01T19:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-04-01T04:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/questions/1386",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.09580000000000001",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The crowd forecast.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website INFER Public. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "1401",
                    "source": "infer",
                    "question": "Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/questions/1401.",
                    "background": "\r\n    \r\n    \r\n  \r\n    Open RAN is an effort to push the mobile network industry away from vendor lock-in and towards interoperability, i.e., to allow mobile networks to use equipment from multiple companies instead of having to buy a completely proprietary solution from only one vendor (<a href=\"https://www.networkworld.com/article/970200/what-is-open-ran.html\" target=\"_blank\">Network World</a>, <a href=\"https://www.juniper.net/us/en/research-topics/what-is-open-ran.html\" target=\"_blank\">Juniper Networks</a>). Huawei, the world\u2019s leading 5G equipment manufacturer, has expressed skepticism towards Open RAN efforts in the past (<a href=\"https://www.lightreading.com/open-ran/huawei-gives-another-thumbs-down-to-open-ran-or-so-it-says\" target=\"_blank\">Light Reading</a>, <a href=\"https://strandconsult.dk/does-huawei-not-believe-in-open-ran-or-is-just-playing-poker-with-the-o-ran-alliance-and-policymakers/\" target=\"_blank\">Strand Consult</a>). In February 2024, Huawei dismissed speculation that plans to support Open RAN were forthcoming (<a href=\"https://www.telecomtv.com/content/open-ran/huawei-denies-open-ran-support-speculation-49795/\" target=\"_blank\">Telecom TV</a>).\u00a0\r\n    \r\n  <div><br></div><div><b>Resolution Criteria:\u00a0</b></div><div>This question will be resolved as \u201cYes\u201d if Huawei sells or announces a commercial Open RAN equipment offering before 1 January 2027. Announcements about research plans or trials of Open RAN equipment will not count.</div>\r\n  \r\n  ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-05-20T20:06:44+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2027-01-01T05:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/questions/1401",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.11610000000000001",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The crowd forecast.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website INFER Public. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "1385",
                "1401"
            ],
            "source": "infer",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "1385",
                    "source": "infer",
                    "question": "Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/questions/1385.",
                    "background": "Open RAN is an effort to push the mobile network industry away from vendor lock-in and towards interoperability, i.e., to allow mobile networks to use equipment from multiple companies instead of having to buy a completely proprietary solution from only one vendor (<a href=\"https://www.networkworld.com/article/970200/what-is-open-ran.html\" target=\"_blank\">Network World</a>, <a href=\"https://www.juniper.net/us/en/research-topics/what-is-open-ran.html\" target=\"_blank\">Juniper Networks</a>). Huawei, the world\u2019s leading 5G equipment manufacturer, has expressed skepticism towards open RAN efforts in the past (<a href=\"https://www.lightreading.com/open-ran/huawei-gives-another-thumbs-down-to-open-ran-or-so-it-says\" target=\"_blank\">Light Reading</a>, <a href=\"https://strandconsult.dk/does-huawei-not-believe-in-open-ran-or-is-just-playing-poker-with-the-o-ran-alliance-and-policymakers/\" target=\"_blank\">Strand Consult</a>). In February 2024, Huawei dismissed speculation that plans to support open RAN were forthcoming (<a href=\"https://www.telecomtv.com/content/open-ran/huawei-denies-open-ran-support-speculation-49795/\" target=\"_blank\">Telecom TV</a>).\u00a0\r\n    \r\n  <div><br></div><div>The <a href=\"https://www.o-ran.org/about\" target=\"_blank\">O-RAN Alliance</a>\u00a0(O-RAN) is an organization made up of mobile network operators, vendors, and academic and research institutions that is working to move the industry towards open RAN architecture. Huawei is not a member of O-RAN, despite the fact that rival telecom equipment manufacturers Nokia, Ericsson, and ZTE, as well as China\u2019s major mobile network operators are all members of the Alliance (<a href=\"https://www.o-ran.org/membership\" target=\"_blank\">O-RAN Membership</a>). Some view O-RAN as a U.S.-backed effort to tackle Huawei\u2019s dominance in the industry but others have noted that Chinese influence within O-RAN may scupper these efforts (<a href=\"https://www.gizchina.com/2024/03/19/breaking-down-operation-o-ran-how-the-us-aims-to-level-the-playing-field-against-huawei/\" target=\"_blank\">GizChina</a>, <a href=\"https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20220113PD207/5g-o-ran-china-telecom-service_-infrastructure.html\" target=\"_blank\">DigiTimes</a>, <a href=\"https://ecipe.org/blog/chinas-participation-o-ran/\" target=\"_blank\">ECIPE</a>).</div><div><br></div><div><b>Resolution Criteria:\u00a0</b></div><div>This question will be resolved as \u201cYes\u201d if Huawei or the O-RAN Alliance announce a collaboration between them on or before 1 October 2025. Such a collaboration might include, but is not limited to, Huawei joining the O-RAN Alliance, testing or developing equipment with O-RAN standards, or making financial or resource commitments. Examples of past announcements of other organizations collaborating with O-RAN include O-RAN\u2019s collaborations with <a href=\"https://www.atis.org/press-releases/atis-and-o-ran-alliance-broaden-cooperative-efforts/\" target=\"_blank\">ATIS</a>, <a href=\"https://www.smallcellforum.org/press-releases/scf-and-oran-alliance/\" target=\"_blank\">SCF</a>, and the <a href=\"https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200225005180/en/The-O-RAN-Alliance-and-the-Telecom-Infra-Project-TIP-Reach-New-Level-of-Collaboration-for-Open-Radio-Access-Networks\" target=\"_blank\">Telecom Infra Project</a>. Statements by Huawei that they intend to explore open RAN projects unrelated to the O-RAN Alliance will not count towards resolution.</div><div><br></div>",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-04-01T19:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-10-01T04:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/questions/1385",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0222",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The crowd forecast.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website INFER Public. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "1401",
                    "source": "infer",
                    "question": "Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/questions/1401.",
                    "background": "\r\n    \r\n    \r\n  \r\n    Open RAN is an effort to push the mobile network industry away from vendor lock-in and towards interoperability, i.e., to allow mobile networks to use equipment from multiple companies instead of having to buy a completely proprietary solution from only one vendor (<a href=\"https://www.networkworld.com/article/970200/what-is-open-ran.html\" target=\"_blank\">Network World</a>, <a href=\"https://www.juniper.net/us/en/research-topics/what-is-open-ran.html\" target=\"_blank\">Juniper Networks</a>). Huawei, the world\u2019s leading 5G equipment manufacturer, has expressed skepticism towards Open RAN efforts in the past (<a href=\"https://www.lightreading.com/open-ran/huawei-gives-another-thumbs-down-to-open-ran-or-so-it-says\" target=\"_blank\">Light Reading</a>, <a href=\"https://strandconsult.dk/does-huawei-not-believe-in-open-ran-or-is-just-playing-poker-with-the-o-ran-alliance-and-policymakers/\" target=\"_blank\">Strand Consult</a>). In February 2024, Huawei dismissed speculation that plans to support Open RAN were forthcoming (<a href=\"https://www.telecomtv.com/content/open-ran/huawei-denies-open-ran-support-speculation-49795/\" target=\"_blank\">Telecom TV</a>).\u00a0\r\n    \r\n  <div><br></div><div><b>Resolution Criteria:\u00a0</b></div><div>This question will be resolved as \u201cYes\u201d if Huawei sells or announces a commercial Open RAN equipment offering before 1 January 2027. Announcements about research plans or trials of Open RAN equipment will not count.</div>\r\n  \r\n  ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-05-20T20:06:44+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2027-01-01T05:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/questions/1401",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.11610000000000001",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The crowd forecast.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website INFER Public. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "1385",
                "1386"
            ],
            "source": "infer",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "1385",
                    "source": "infer",
                    "question": "Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/questions/1385.",
                    "background": "Open RAN is an effort to push the mobile network industry away from vendor lock-in and towards interoperability, i.e., to allow mobile networks to use equipment from multiple companies instead of having to buy a completely proprietary solution from only one vendor (<a href=\"https://www.networkworld.com/article/970200/what-is-open-ran.html\" target=\"_blank\">Network World</a>, <a href=\"https://www.juniper.net/us/en/research-topics/what-is-open-ran.html\" target=\"_blank\">Juniper Networks</a>). Huawei, the world\u2019s leading 5G equipment manufacturer, has expressed skepticism towards open RAN efforts in the past (<a href=\"https://www.lightreading.com/open-ran/huawei-gives-another-thumbs-down-to-open-ran-or-so-it-says\" target=\"_blank\">Light Reading</a>, <a href=\"https://strandconsult.dk/does-huawei-not-believe-in-open-ran-or-is-just-playing-poker-with-the-o-ran-alliance-and-policymakers/\" target=\"_blank\">Strand Consult</a>). In February 2024, Huawei dismissed speculation that plans to support open RAN were forthcoming (<a href=\"https://www.telecomtv.com/content/open-ran/huawei-denies-open-ran-support-speculation-49795/\" target=\"_blank\">Telecom TV</a>).\u00a0\r\n    \r\n  <div><br></div><div>The <a href=\"https://www.o-ran.org/about\" target=\"_blank\">O-RAN Alliance</a>\u00a0(O-RAN) is an organization made up of mobile network operators, vendors, and academic and research institutions that is working to move the industry towards open RAN architecture. Huawei is not a member of O-RAN, despite the fact that rival telecom equipment manufacturers Nokia, Ericsson, and ZTE, as well as China\u2019s major mobile network operators are all members of the Alliance (<a href=\"https://www.o-ran.org/membership\" target=\"_blank\">O-RAN Membership</a>). Some view O-RAN as a U.S.-backed effort to tackle Huawei\u2019s dominance in the industry but others have noted that Chinese influence within O-RAN may scupper these efforts (<a href=\"https://www.gizchina.com/2024/03/19/breaking-down-operation-o-ran-how-the-us-aims-to-level-the-playing-field-against-huawei/\" target=\"_blank\">GizChina</a>, <a href=\"https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20220113PD207/5g-o-ran-china-telecom-service_-infrastructure.html\" target=\"_blank\">DigiTimes</a>, <a href=\"https://ecipe.org/blog/chinas-participation-o-ran/\" target=\"_blank\">ECIPE</a>).</div><div><br></div><div><b>Resolution Criteria:\u00a0</b></div><div>This question will be resolved as \u201cYes\u201d if Huawei or the O-RAN Alliance announce a collaboration between them on or before 1 October 2025. Such a collaboration might include, but is not limited to, Huawei joining the O-RAN Alliance, testing or developing equipment with O-RAN standards, or making financial or resource commitments. Examples of past announcements of other organizations collaborating with O-RAN include O-RAN\u2019s collaborations with <a href=\"https://www.atis.org/press-releases/atis-and-o-ran-alliance-broaden-cooperative-efforts/\" target=\"_blank\">ATIS</a>, <a href=\"https://www.smallcellforum.org/press-releases/scf-and-oran-alliance/\" target=\"_blank\">SCF</a>, and the <a href=\"https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200225005180/en/The-O-RAN-Alliance-and-the-Telecom-Infra-Project-TIP-Reach-New-Level-of-Collaboration-for-Open-Radio-Access-Networks\" target=\"_blank\">Telecom Infra Project</a>. Statements by Huawei that they intend to explore open RAN projects unrelated to the O-RAN Alliance will not count towards resolution.</div><div><br></div>",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-04-01T19:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-10-01T04:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/questions/1385",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0222",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The crowd forecast.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website INFER Public. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "1386",
                    "source": "infer",
                    "question": "Will a North American testing center (OTIC) issue an O-RAN Certificate between 1 April 2024 and 31 March 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/questions/1386.",
                    "background": "\r\n    \r\n    \r\n    The <a href=\"https://www.o-ran.org/about\" target=\"_blank\">O-RAN Alliance</a> (O-RAN) is an organization that creates standards for telecommunication technology to ensure that mobile network telecommunications equipment operate within an open architecture and are interoperable between vendors. One way that manufacturers can show that a product complies with O-RAN standards is by obtaining an <a href=\"https://www.o-ran.org/testing-integration#certification-badging-program\" target=\"_blank\">O-RAN Certificate</a> from one of O-RAN\u2019s Open Testing and Integration Centres (OTIC). In August 2023, O-RAN announced the opening of four new OTICs in the U.S. (<a href=\"https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20230817436719/en/O-RAN-ALLIANCE-Welcomes-Four-New-OTICs-In-North-America\" target=\"_blank\">Business Wire</a>). However, no companies have received certificates from an OTIC in the U.S. to date.<br><div><br></div><div><b>Resolution Criteria: \u00a0</b></div><div>This question will be resolved using the <a href=\"https://www.o-ran.org/testing-integration#certification-badging-program\" target=\"_blank\">O-RAN Certification and Badging Catalogue</a>. To count towards resolution, the catalog entry must show the following:</div><ul>\r\n<li>\u201cDate of issued certificate\u201d must be on or after 2024-04-01 and on or before 2025-03-31</li>\r\n<li>\u201cType\u201d must be \u201cCertificate\u201d</li>\r\n<li>\u201cOTIC name\u201d must be any of the North American OTICs, which are listed <a href=\"https://www.o-ran.org/testing-integration#otics-list\" target=\"_blank\">here</a>\r\n</li>\r\n</ul><div>In the event that the question is not resolved before the question closes for forecasting, the INFER team will wait until late April to resolve this question to allow for delays in updating the catalog. Note that the question will be resolved as of the \u201cDate of issued certificate\u201d listed in the catalog.</div><div><br></div>\r\n  \r\n  \r\n  ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-04-01T19:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-04-01T04:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/questions/1386",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.09580000000000001",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The crowd forecast.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website INFER Public. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "1414",
                "1461"
            ],
            "source": "infer",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "1414",
                    "source": "infer",
                    "question": "On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world\u2019s most valuable company by market cap?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/questions/1414.",
                    "background": "\r\n    \r\n    \r\n    Market capitalization (or \u201cmarket cap\u201d) is a way of measuring the size of a company by calculating the total value of a company\u2019s shares on the open market (<a href=\"https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/marketcapitalization.asp\" target=\"_blank\">Investopedia</a>, <a href=\"https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/trading-investing/market-cap\" target=\"_blank\">Fidelity</a>). A global ranking of companies by market capitalization is available on <a href=\"https://companiesmarketcap.com\" target=\"_blank\">CompaniesMarketCap</a>.\u00a0\r\n    \r\n  <div><br></div><div>Nvidia has become an essential player in artificial intelligence, as the technologies the company produces underpin many of the major advancements and applications of AI (<a href=\"https://www.plus500.com/en/instruments/nvda/nvidia-artificial-intelligence-contributions~2\" target=\"_blank\">Plus500</a>, <a href=\"https://www.forbes.com/sites/timbajarin/2023/03/29/why-nvidia-matters-for-the-future-of-ai/\" target=\"_blank\">Forbes</a>). The demand for AI chips has skyrocketed Nvidia\u2019s value in recent months, leading it to briefly become the world\u2019s largest company by market cap in June 2024, before falling back to third behind Microsoft and Apple (<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/18/nvidia-passes-microsoft-in-market-cap-is-most-valuable-public-company.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNBC</a>, <a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/07/03/nvidia-just-became-the-largest-company-on-the-stoc/\" target=\"_blank\">The Motley Fool</a>).\u00a0</div><div><br></div><div>Many expect the value of Nvidia to continue to rise, with some predicting market caps as high as $5 trillion by 2026 or $10 trillion by 2030 (<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/06/19/prediction-nvidia-five-trillion-generative-ai/\" target=\"_blank\">The Motley Fool</a>, <a href=\"https://www.forbes.com/sites/bethkindig/2024/06/07/prediction-nvidia-stock-will-reach-10-trillion-market-cap-by-2030/\" target=\"_blank\">Forbes</a>). However, others have suggested that we may be in an AI bubble and that its costs and unclear value could cause Nvidia\u2019s value to fall back to earth (<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-nvidia-investors-can-learn-from-the-roaring-1920s-and-the-radio-bubble-206aaf79\" target=\"_blank\">MarketWatch</a>, <a href=\"https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/nvidia-ai-stocks-bubble-james-ferguson-intel-cisco-chatgpt-2024-7\" target=\"_blank\">Business Insider</a>).</div><div><br></div><div><b>Resolution Criteria: \u00a0</b></div><div>This question will be resolved by comparing market capitalizations on <a href=\"https://companiesmarketcap.com\" target=\"_blank\">CompaniesMarketCap</a> on 31 May 2025. Note that 31 May 2025 is a Saturday, so market caps will be based on the end-of-day stock prices on 30 May 2025.</div>\r\n  \r\n  \r\n  ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-07-09T16:30:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-05-03T04:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/questions/1414",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.1884",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The crowd forecast.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website INFER Public. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "1461",
                    "source": "infer",
                    "question": "Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/questions/1461.",
                    "background": "For the purposes of this question, an economic collapse is defined as ANY one of these scenarios occurring:\r\n    \r\n  <ul>\r\n<li>Egypt\u2019s main stock market index, the EGX 30, decreases in value by at least 30% over one month.</li>\r\n<li>Egypt\u2019s annual headline inflation rate reaches 50%.</li>\r\n<li>Egypt enters into default on its external debts.</li>\r\n</ul><div><br></div><div>Egypt is facing significant economic challenges, including high inflation and currency depreciation. As of August 2024, the annual headline inflation rate rose to 26.2%, following a peak of 38% in September 2023 (<a href=\"https://tradingeconomics.com/egypt/inflation-cpi\" target=\"_blank\">Trading Economics</a>). The Egyptian pound has lost about 50% of its value over the past two years, contributing to severe cost-of-living increases. (<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/05/the-egyptian-pound-is-amongst-the-worst-performing-currencies-in-2023.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNBC</a>).\u00a0</div><div><br></div><div>The EGX 30, Egypt's primary stock market index, has shown volatility, with analysts warning that continued instability could lead to sharp declines. Additionally, Egypt has quadrupled its external debt since 2015, and is equivalent to about 43% of GDP (<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/egypts-foreign-debt-rises-35-billion-last-quarter-2023-2024-05-09/#:~:text=Total%20foreign%20debt%20rose%20to,and%20support%20an%20overvalued%20currency.\" target=\"_blank\">Reuters</a>). These factors raise concerns about the potential for an economic collapse if significant adverse developments occur.</div><div><br></div><div><b>Resolution Criteria:\u00a0</b></div><div>This question will be resolved \u201cYes\u201d if any of the following criteria are met:</div><ul>\r\n<li>\r\n<b>EGX 30 decline of at least 30% over one month: </b>The closing price of the <a href=\"https://www.egx.com.eg/en/Indices.aspx\" target=\"_blank\">EGX 30</a> on the last trading day of the month is at least 30% lower than its price on the last closing day of the previous month. More historical data on the EGX 30\u2019s prices is available on <a href=\"https://www.investing.com/indices/egx30-historical-data\" target=\"_blank\">Investing.com</a>.</li>\r\n<li>\r\n<b>Egypt\u2019s inflation reaches 50%: </b>Egypt\u2019s annual headline urban inflation rate (\u201cHeadline (y/y)\u201d) for any given month is at least 50%, as reported by the <a href=\"https://www.cbe.org.eg/en/economic-research/statistics/inflation-rates\" target=\"_blank\">Central Bank of Egypt</a>. Historical data is available <a href=\"https://www.cbe.org.eg/en/economic-research/statistics/inflation-rates/historical-data\" target=\"_blank\">here</a>.\u00a0</li>\r\n<li>\r\n<b>Egypt defaults on external debts: </b>Credible financial news sources or international financial institutions (such as the IMF, World Bank, or major credit rating agencies) report that the country\u2019s government has entered a form of sovereign default, such as by missing a payment on external debt obligations and not making the payment within an applicable grace period or by announcing a moratorium on external debt payments. A default will be considered to have occurred at the earliest instance reported by a major financial news source or institution.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n  ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-10-07T20:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2026-01-01T05:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/questions/1461",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.052700000000000004",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The crowd forecast.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website INFER Public. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "1363",
                "1413"
            ],
            "source": "infer",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "1363",
                    "source": "infer",
                    "question": "Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/questions/1363.",
                    "background": "The chief of Myanmar\u2019s military junta, Min Aung Hlaing, declared that the country would hold elections by August 2023 as part of a broader pledge to restore democracy in the country (<a href=\"https://www.dw.com/en/myanmar-junta-promises-elections-by-2023/a-58720116\" target=\"_blank\">Deutsche Welle</a>). However, the junta extended the state of emergency for six months in February 2023 and again in July 2023, delaying elections beyond 2023 (<a href=\"https://apnews.com/article/myanmar-military-state-of-emergency-extend-c860a06985f42265088b53c0ea80029e\" target=\"_blank\">AP News</a>). Officials have stated that the election may not occur until a nationwide census is completed in 2024 (<a href=\"https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-02/myanmar-census-will-increase-surveillance-of-junta-opponents/102923250\" target=\"_blank\">ABC Australia</a>).\u00a0\r\n    \r\n  <div><br></div><div><b>Additional Reading:\u00a0</b></div><ul>\r\n<li>\r\n<a href=\"https://www.csis.org/analysis/myanmars-precipice-stalemate-and-internal-strife-compelling-military-toward-election\" target=\"_blank\">Myanmar's Precipice: The Stalemate and Internal Strife Compelling the Military toward an Election</a> (Center for Strategic and International Studies)\u00a0</li>\r\n<li>\r\n<a href=\"https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/census-10242023154556.html\" target=\"_blank\">Pilot opposition suggests no meaningful census for Myanmar polls</a> (Radio Free Asia)</li>\r\n</ul><div><br></div><div><b>Resolution Criteria:</b></div><div>This question will only resolve once voting has begun for a nationwide general election (including early voting) or the 1 July 2025 deadline has passed. It will not resolve on an official announcement of an election date. This question will resolve as \"yes\" if election voting occurs anywhere in the country, even if voting is canceled in some locations.</div><div><br></div>",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-01-02T17:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-07-01T04:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "If voting is cancelled in some locations due to the armed conflict or security concerns (e.g., if the junta is unable to conduct elections in rebel-held areas), but the election is otherwise held at a national level, then the question will still be resolved as \u201cYes\u201d. For example, voting was cancelled in multiple locations during the 2020 general elections, but a national election was otherwise held (<a href=\"https://www.usip.org/publications/2020/11/election-cancellations-rakhine-state-could-signal-trouble-myanmar\">USIP</a>, <a href=\"https://www.tni.org/files/publication-downloads/myanmar_policy_briefing_24_the_2020_general_election_in_myanmar.pdf\">TNI</a>). If something similar were to happen again, this question would be resolved as \u201cYes\u201d.",
                    "url": "https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/questions/1363",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0125",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The crowd forecast.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website INFER Public. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "1413",
                    "source": "infer",
                    "question": "Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/questions/1413.",
                    "background": "In March 2024, Vladimir Putin was re-elected to serve a new six year term (<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-presidential-vote-starts-final-day-with-accusations-kyiv-sabotage-2024-03-17/\" target=\"_blank\">Reuters</a>). This comes after Putin signed into law in 2021 a change to the Russian constitution that reset his term limits, allowing him to run in 2024 and possibly 2030 (<a href=\"https://www.cbsnews.com/news/vladimir-putin-president-russia-signs-law-allowing-2-more-presidential-terms/\" target=\"_blank\">CBS</a>, <a href=\"https://apnews.com/article/russia-putin-signs-law-allows-2-more-terms-d9acdada71b75c3daeafb389782fed4b\" target=\"_blank\">AP News</a>). However, the full impact of the war in Ukraine, Russia\u2019s economic problems, and domestic instability remains to be seen (<a href=\"https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/russia-tomorrow/five-scenarios-for-russias-future/\" target=\"_blank\">Atlantic Council</a>, <a href=\"https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/putin-and-russias-future\" target=\"_blank\">Wilson Center</a>).\u00a0\r\n    \r\n  <div><br></div><div><b>Resolution Criteria: \u00a0</b></div><div>This question will be resolved using open-source news media reports.</div>",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-07-09T16:30:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-07-01T04:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/questions/1413",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0064",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The crowd forecast.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website INFER Public. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "0x324d699420ad881471d0fd29acc86e664e397bd6461b3fa440dcd3efc514ac79",
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "Putin out as President of Russia in 2025?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/putin-out-as-president-of-russia-in-2025.",
            "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Russia's president, Vladimir Putin, is removed from power for any length of time between December 28, 2024, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nPresident Vladimir Putin will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as President of Russia within this market's timeframe.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-12-29",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-12-31T12:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/putin-out-as-president-of-russia-in-2025",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.085",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "0xc84ac0cca6352c640525e455600e3d7798bbf5b2259444b78910c99e1dcb7c33",
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "Will Gustavo Jalkh win the 2025 Ecuadorian Presidential Election?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-gustavo-jalkh-win-the-2025-ecuadorian-presidential-election.",
            "background": "Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Ecuador on 9 February 2025. If necessary, a second round will be held on 13 April 2025.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Gustavo Jalkh wins this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market will resolve solely based off the first official announcement of the winner from the Ecuadorian Government, specifically the National Electoral Council (https://www.cne.gob.ec/). \n",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-11-26",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-04-13T12:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-gustavo-jalkh-win-the-2025-ecuadorian-presidential-election",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.001",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "0xf78b84e417dec6b34f6cbea7002cfb4b16df21aa1cecc8eb701e2e58baf3fcdf",
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "Trump takes Panama Canal in 2025?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/trump-takes-panama-canal-in-2025.",
            "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Panama Canal comes under US control by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, US control means the United States assumes primary operational authority over the canal, either via diplomatic agreement, military action, or any other means.\n\nAn official announcement made by the United States and Panama that the Panama Canal will come under US control will qualify, even if the actual transfer of control is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government and the Government of Panama, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Panama Canal has come under US sovereignty will also qualify.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-01-08",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-12-31T12:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/trump-takes-panama-canal-in-2025",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.145",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "0x5ce0d897bd66142c43a38204a67ad85bc3e0643382258411a5aa58ca3e825082",
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-karol-nawrocki-be-the-next-president-of-poland.",
            "background": "Presidential elections will be held in Poland in May, 2025. If no candidate receives a majority in the first round, a second round will be held.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Karol Nawrocki wins this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market will resolve solely based off the first official announcement of the winner of the election from the Polish government, specifically the National Electoral Commission (Pa\u0144stwowa Komisja Wyborcza, PKW) (https://www.pkw.gov.pl/).\n",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-11-26",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-05-18T12:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-karol-nawrocki-be-the-next-president-of-poland",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.18",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "0x73b046b7970a1780f1d7a0cacf73413325911dd87cdc5b63cfdc27496110fb1b",
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "Will Turkey leave NATO by June 30?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-turkey-leave-nato-by-june-30.",
            "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Turkey formally withdraws from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to the United States government by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.\n\nTurkey's exit from NATO\u2019s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to \"Yes\". Turkey must either withdraw or submit a notice of denunciation to trigger a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nThe resolution source will be official information from the Turkish government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-12-20",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-06-30T12:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-turkey-leave-nato-by-june-30",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.05",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "0x267caa12157e2494fa6ef09c62bae0c2966d85a2b84d1e9d3c15e75d973b6a07",
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "Will Frank Baylis be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-frank-baylis-be-the-next-leader-of-the-canadian-liberal-party.",
            "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the first leader of The Liberal Party of Canada following Justin Trudeau is Frank Baylis. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n \nThe resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next permanent  leader of The Liberal Party of Canada after Justin Trudeau. Any interim or acting leader of the party will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official information from The Liberal Party of Canada; however, a consensus of credible media sources will also suffice.\n\nIf Justin Trudeau remains the  leader of the The Liberal Party of Canada or the next leader of the The Liberal Party of Canada after Justin Trudeau is not announced by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-01-06",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-12-31T12:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-frank-baylis-be-the-next-leader-of-the-canadian-liberal-party",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0015",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "0xc0955534ca110306e37acafd184115ec86a0c989bf2ebd937b0f3b34f49e32c8",
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea in 2025?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/kim-jong-un-out-as-supreme-leader-of-north-korea-in-2025.",
            "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Supreme Leader of North Korea Kim Jong Un is removed from power for any length of time between January 28, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nKim Jong Un will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Supreme Leader of North Korea within this market's timeframe.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-01-29",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-12-31T12:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/kim-jong-un-out-as-supreme-leader-of-north-korea-in-2025",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.085",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "0xab6faa3e66abacc484bbb4bd31ae5e2a56d6f6252b5023631f1bd9e5299fa2f8",
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-win-nobel-peace-prize-in-2025.",
            "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald Trump wins the 2025 Nobel Peace prize. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf Donald Trump wins the prize along with another person/entity, this market will resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Swedish Academy.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-12-31",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-12-31T12:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-win-nobel-peace-prize-in-2025",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.145",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "0xa9fcdaf248a0560f83cf7c7e75cad23d3151b2169a22f22b316eb822bdc27329",
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "Will Anita Anand be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-anita-anand-be-the-next-leader-of-the-canadian-liberal-party.",
            "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the first leader of The Liberal Party of Canada following Justin Trudeau is Anita Anand. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next permanent  leader of The Liberal Party of Canada after Justin Trudeau. Any interim or acting leader of the party will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official information from The Liberal Party of Canada; however, a consensus of credible media sources will also suffice.\n\nIf Justin Trudeau remains the  leader of the The Liberal Party of Canada or the next leader of the The Liberal Party of Canada after Justin Trudeau is not announced by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-01-06",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-12-31T12:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-anita-anand-be-the-next-leader-of-the-canadian-liberal-party",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0015",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "0x6924e1f680ceef1cf6cc14a4704a3b455b0816f04e1e09523fac4c2769aaa56a",
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "Was JFK assassination an inside job?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/was-jfk-assassination-an-inside-job-march-31.",
            "background": "On January 23, President Trump signed an executive order for the declassification of the records on JFK's assassination (see: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/declassification-of-records-concerning-the-assassinations-of-president-john-f-kenned/)\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if by March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, definitive evidence is made public confirming that the US government orchestrated or was directly involved in the assassination of John F. Kennedy. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be publicly released information from the U.S. government.\n",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-01-24",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-03-31T12:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/was-jfk-assassination-an-inside-job-march-31",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0335",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "0xa2bc057dc5589c13f985a22e36678d8a5fe85ea8b96f5d3256123c3951d142b7",
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "Will the Utah Hockey Club win the 2025 President\u2019s Trophy?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-utah-hockey-club-win-the-2025-presidents-trophy.",
            "background": "This market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d if the Utah Hockey Club win the 2025 NHL President\u2019s Trophy. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \u201cNo\u201d.\n\nThis market will resolve to \u201cNo\u201d if it becomes impossible for this team to win the 2025 President\u2019s Trophy based off the rules of the NHL.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be information from the NHL.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-01-15",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-04-17T12:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-utah-hockey-club-win-the-2025-presidents-trophy",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.003",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "0x4e26e75da2ec8c084efdb89b1883e7889f21ad32bc36a81ed13c001bebb72929",
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "Will Dominic Solanke be the top goalscorer in the EPL?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-dominic-solanke-be-the-top-goalscorer-in-the-epl.",
            "background": "This market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d if Dominic Solanke is the top goalscorer for the 2024/2025 English Premier League season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \u201cNo.\u201d\n\nIf multiple players tie for the most goals in the 2024/2025 English Premier League season, the market will resolve based on most assists, then most games played, and finally the player\u2019s last name alphabetically if ties persist.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the English Premier League. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-09-20",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-05-25T12:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-dominic-solanke-be-the-top-goalscorer-in-the-epl",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0035",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "0x7c3c06dfd81958876a723f95d518933ed321e96666cd005bff82f5dc18494e32",
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "Will Mississippi State win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-mississippi-state-win-the-2025-ncaa-tournament.",
            "background": "This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2025 NCAA Men\u2019s Basketball Tournament.\n\nIf it is impossible for a team to win the 2025 NCAA Men\u2019s Basketball Tournament according to the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated) , the corresponding market will immediately resolve to \u201cNo\u201d.\n\nIf for any reason no winner is declared by May 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be information from the NCAA.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-01-24",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-04-07T12:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-mississippi-state-win-the-2025-ncaa-tournament",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.01",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "0xd76d5172fffaaf2b0d0db29bd944a462654a20a4a327860e4e0438d13b6a4bee",
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-new-york-knicks-win-the-eastern-conference.",
            "background": "This market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d if the New York Knicks win the 2024-2025 NBA Eastern Conference finals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \u201cNo\u201d.\n\nThis market will resolve to \u201cNo\u201d if it becomes impossible for this team to win the 2024-25 NBA Eastern Conference finals based off the rules of the NBA.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be information from the NBA.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-10-04",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-06-05T12:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-new-york-knicks-win-the-eastern-conference",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.135",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "0x4fa70c404d4c33639d5f3883226ccf2392fbcc87bb5e4029f87bacf53d0ae6b7",
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "Will Michigan win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-michigan-win-the-2025-ncaa-tournament.",
            "background": "This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2025 NCAA Men\u2019s Basketball Tournament.\n\nIf it is impossible for a team to win the 2025 NCAA Men\u2019s Basketball Tournament according to the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated) , the corresponding market will immediately resolve to \u201cNo\u201d.\n\nIf for any reason no winner is declared by May 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be information from the NCAA.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-01-24",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-04-07T12:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-michigan-win-the-2025-ncaa-tournament",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0175",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "0x0ee1d66c2dd4f81fb8bb502b3318c6d0790ff887a38e082c393bee415872e1c3",
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "Will Ipswich Town finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-ipswich-town-finish-in-2nd-place-for-the-2024-25-epl-season.",
            "background": "This market will resolve according to the team that finishes in 2nd place for the 2024-25 English Premier League.\n\nIf it is impossible for a team to finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 English Premier League based on the rules of the EPL (i.e. they are mathematically eliminated from finishing in 2nd place), the corresponding market will immediately resolve to \u201cNo\u201d. Potential retroactive points deductions past these points will have no bearing on this market\u2019s resolution.\n\nIf the season is permanently canceled, or otherwise the standings have not been finalized by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be information from the EPL.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-02-12",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-05-25T12:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-ipswich-town-finish-in-2nd-place-for-the-2024-25-epl-season",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0015",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "0x6452c3d3e25f381ce39e9b7ffb06cf9d7a7cf1cc6c13044c2403c4606b77e5f8",
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "Will Real Madrid win La Liga?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-real-madrid-win-la-liga.",
            "background": "This market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d if Real Madrid is the 2024-25 La Liga Champion. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \u201cNo\u201d.\n\nIf it is a mathematical certainty Real Madrid will win, this market will immediately resolve to \u201cYes.\u201d Likewise, if it becomes mathematically impossible for Real Madrid to win, this market will immediately resolve to \u201cNo.\u201d Potential retroactive points deductions past these points will have no bearing on this market\u2019s resolution.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-09-18",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-05-25T12:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-real-madrid-win-la-liga",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.41500000000000004",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "0x189113c537d5f827fe5ef4805b431bc2d908241b5335032186715a3eb16a8983",
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "Will Purdue win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-purdue-win-the-2025-ncaa-tournament.",
            "background": "This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2025 NCAA Men\u2019s Basketball Tournament.\n\nIf it is impossible for a team to win the 2025 NCAA Men\u2019s Basketball Tournament according to the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated) , the corresponding market will immediately resolve to \u201cNo\u201d.\n\nIf for any reason no winner is declared by May 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be information from the NCAA.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-01-24",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-04-07T12:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-purdue-win-the-2025-ncaa-tournament",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.022",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "0x3f816d82200f0198e72df1175e21d9f757e274307a5f93d075e3c14c7f9a4377",
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "Will the Toronto Maple Leafs win the 2025 Stanley Cup?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-toronto-maple-leafs-win-the-2025-stanley-cup.",
            "background": "This market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d if the Toronto Maple Leafs win the 2025 NHL Stanley Cup. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \u201cNo\u201d.\n\nThis market will resolve to \u201cNo\u201d if it becomes impossible for this team to win the 2025 NHL Stanley Cup based off the rules of the NHL.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be information from the NHL.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-10-08",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-06-23T12:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-toronto-maple-leafs-win-the-2025-stanley-cup",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.065",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "0x9d98de23d9a87c7fe785f5b80fe0a030cc46b28863dd2b67971fe95cca4814da",
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-la-clippers-win-the-western-conference.",
            "background": "This market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d if the LA Clippers win the 2024-2025 NBA Western Conference finals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \u201cNo\u201d.\n\nThis market will resolve to \u201cNo\u201d if it becomes impossible for this team to win the 2024-25 NBA Western Conference finals based off the rules of the NBA.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be information from the NBA.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-10-04",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-06-05T12:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-la-clippers-win-the-western-conference",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.059500000000000004",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "0xfb6268e2f40d8a59d1320117d20e11ba8547273641205de1ca446f40f90cd913",
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "Will Greece win Eurovision 2025?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-greece-win-eurovision-2025.",
            "background": "This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2025 wins.\n\nIf at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2025 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no winner is announced by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve \"Other\". If two or more countries tie to win Eurovision 2025, this market will resolve to the country which comes first alphabetically.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2025, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-02-03",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-05-17T12:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-greece-win-eurovision-2025",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0115",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "0x55881f30e5f88d7dece08a4e63daa633a9c1905ff0d454088dc16d19881fe3f8",
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "Will Italy win Eurovision 2025?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-italy-win-eurovision-2025.",
            "background": "This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2025 wins.\n\nIf at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2025 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no winner is announced by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve \"Other\". If two or more countries tie to win Eurovision 2025, this market will resolve to the country which comes first alphabetically.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2025, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-02-03",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-05-17T12:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-italy-win-eurovision-2025",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0155",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "0x54377fdef57c1c82b31385a9164e87ff58a92ec6bb64cd55bc6d88a9e2b82fd6",
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2025?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-montenegro-win-eurovision-2025.",
            "background": "This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2025 wins.\n\nIf at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2025 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no winner is announced by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve \"Other\". If two or more countries tie to win Eurovision 2025, this market will resolve to the country which comes first alphabetically.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2025, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-02-03",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-05-17T12:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-montenegro-win-eurovision-2025",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0035",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "0x5b38be7d23ad6179dbbc460e4f753760594c3fb64478f2d441776cbcd794db8a",
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "Will Germany win Eurovision 2025?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-germany-win-eurovision-2025.",
            "background": "This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2025 wins.\n\nIf at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2025 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no winner is announced by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve \"Other\". If two or more countries tie to win Eurovision 2025, this market will resolve to the country which comes first alphabetically.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2025, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-02-03",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-05-17T12:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-germany-win-eurovision-2025",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.021500000000000002",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "0x677826754ff7328696c121a398fdf495dcd2e04f84ecb6494b85b2883ccaa6ca",
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-netherlands-win-eurovision-2025.",
            "background": "This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2025 wins.\n\nIf at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2025 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no winner is announced by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve \"Other\". If two or more countries tie to win Eurovision 2025, this market will resolve to the country which comes first alphabetically.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2025, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-02-03",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-05-17T12:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-netherlands-win-eurovision-2025",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.02",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "0x5dd6d072364a196c2c980b52d9df93599a63ff497619e0b6a028f9ec7d4d3252",
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "Will Denmark win Eurovision 2025?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-denmark-win-eurovision-2025.",
            "background": "This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2025 wins.\n\nIf at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2025 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no winner is announced by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve \"Other\". If two or more countries tie to win Eurovision 2025, this market will resolve to the country which comes first alphabetically.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2025, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-02-03",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-05-17T12:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-denmark-win-eurovision-2025",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.008",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "0xfd1769e0e3f29a593d521c545cbe84b559869b188b0b085fcc33756e4ba0bb0f",
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "Will Malta win Eurovision 2025?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-malta-win-eurovision-2025.",
            "background": "This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2025 wins.\n\nIf at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2025 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no winner is announced by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve \"Other\". If two or more countries tie to win Eurovision 2025, this market will resolve to the country which comes first alphabetically.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2025, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-02-03",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-05-17T12:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-malta-win-eurovision-2025",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.035500000000000004",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "0x4833d7259bc503e8d211c477f7d21a00629e926382f920195d697fca38d4ad9b",
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "Will Latvia win Eurovision 2025?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-latvia-win-eurovision-2025.",
            "background": "This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2025 wins.\n\nIf at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2025 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no winner is announced by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve \"Other\". If two or more countries tie to win Eurovision 2025, this market will resolve to the country which comes first alphabetically.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2025, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-02-03",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-05-17T12:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-latvia-win-eurovision-2025",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.005",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "0xe87b10afe191706bb36b22526b65983e2a88a12ccce36827e857e16791973493",
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-a-minecraft-movie-be-the-top-grossing-movie-of-2025.",
            "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the \"Gross\" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2025/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses shows 'A Minecraft Movie' (2025) as the film with the highest 2025 gross once data for December 31 is made available. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nNote: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2025 - dates outside of 2025 will not count toward this movie's gross.\n\nIn the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner.\n\nIf there is no final data available by January 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-01-02",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-12-31T12:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-a-minecraft-movie-be-the-top-grossing-movie-of-2025",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.08650000000000001",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "0xcecc6b0236a69618a3ca577c54bb92080b0c9f2dc767de37175baa7ffd08e704",
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "Will Albania win Eurovision 2025?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-albania-win-eurovision-2025.",
            "background": "This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2025 wins.\n\nIf at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2025 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no winner is announced by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve \"Other\". If two or more countries tie to win Eurovision 2025, this market will resolve to the country which comes first alphabetically.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2025, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-02-03",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-05-17T12:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-albania-win-eurovision-2025",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0095",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "0xeb681c0ed923daa35ca2af168502b6e8dead38cfbc71505d10cda6653a4a0216",
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "Will Jerome Powell say \"Good Afternoon\" during the March meeting?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-jerome-powell-say-good-afternoon-during-the-march-meeting1.",
            "background": "Jerome Powell is currently scheduled to give an FOMC Introductory Statement and press conference on March 19, 2025, at 2:00 PM ET. This market pertains to his Introductory Statement as well as the following Q&A session.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Powell says the listed term during the FOMC Press Conference. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAny usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nPluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.\n\nCompound words will not count.\n\nIf no such statement happens by April, 12, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source will be video and transcripts of the FOMC Press conference.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-01-31",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-03-19T12:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-jerome-powell-say-good-afternoon-during-the-march-meeting1",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.979",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "0x50b8b0f741566a420756d975faaf4cc4716229cd5183c3a35b3b20ac2b5050ef",
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "Will a new country buy Bitcoin in 2025?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-a-new-country-buy-bitcoin-in-2025.",
            "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the government of any sovereign UN member state announces between January 1 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET that they bought Bitcoin for the first time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis announcement can pertain to a first purchase of Bitcoin outside of the timeframe of this market (e.g. if a country announces it made its first purchase of Bitcoin prior to this market's timeframe, but the announcement is made within the timeframe, this market will resolve to \"Yes\").\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official announcements from the governments of any purchasing UN member state, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-12-31",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-12-31T12:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-a-new-country-buy-bitcoin-in-2025",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.705",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "0xadde598dced41995a4f96f5c8602608514539ac4467d623ed9f280bcf7c2f9cd",
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "Will Ethereum hit $8,000.00 by March 31?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-ethereum-hit-8000pt00-by-march-31.",
            "background": "This market will immediately resolve to \"Yes\" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Ethereum (ETHUSDT) between December 12, 2024, 16:00 and March 31, 2025, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final \"High\" price of $8,000.00 or higher. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETHUSDT \"High\" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT, with the chart settings on \"1m\" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar.\n\nPlease note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance ETHUSDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-12-12",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-03-31T12:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-ethereum-hit-8000pt00-by-march-31",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.021",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "0x6305af093bee55cfc31252a2ee4fac4b5af533b4884fda44978a1dfc8354343b",
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "Doge ETF approved by July 31?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/doge-etf-approved-by-july-31-2025.",
            "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any spot Dogecoin ETF receives approval from the SEC by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nApproval under Rule 19-4b will qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution, even if there has not been an S-1 approval. Similarly, an S-1 approval without a 19-4b approval will also qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the SEC, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-11-21",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-07-31T12:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/doge-etf-approved-by-july-31-2025",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.34500000000000003",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "0xc85fe2698d8434f9ebd0fa82d75fe2da36edfc81a354b85fef1582d889e5655f",
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by March 31?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-reach-130000-by-march-31.",
            "background": "This market will immediately resolve to \"Yes\" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) between December 12, 2024, 16:00 and March 31, 2025, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final \"High\" price of $130,000 or higher. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTCUSDT \"High\" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on \"1m\" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar.\n\nPlease note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTCUSDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.\n",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-12-12",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-03-31T12:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-reach-130000-by-march-31",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.105",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "0x1bbdc459d73e6972f5ba1f687d739fde70a9774f4875611699fb00a9eb28f090",
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "Tether insolvent in 2025?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/tether-insolvent-in-2025.",
            "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if official information released by Tether Limited Inc., official representatives of Tether Limited Inc. (e.g. lawyers, spokespeople, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting announces by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET that Tether Limited Inc. is insolvent or is filing/has filed for any variety of bankruptcy. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-12-29",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-12-31T12:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/tether-insolvent-in-2025",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.09",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "0xaf11eaf31826a155b5aa4d28fafcebfd641ed153210d547fb431b7797ef30d0c",
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "Elon Musk trillionaire in 2025?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/elon-musk-trillionaire-in-2025.",
            "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Elon Musk's net worth, as listed on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, reaches or exceeds $1 trillion at any point by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-01-07",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-12-31T12:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/elon-musk-trillionaire-in-2025",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.115",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "0x63e3c9432d9e3a0e9665d1152fc0a05f6ed17c9033eb9290062d25d2afb2bed5",
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-reach-110000-by-december-31-2025.",
            "background": "This market will immediately resolve to \"Yes\" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) between December 30, 2024, 20:00 and December 31, 2025, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final \"High\" price of $110,000 or higher. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTCUSDT \"High\" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on \"1m\" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar.\n\nPlease note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTCUSDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-12-30",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-12-31T12:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-reach-110000-by-december-31-2025",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.8245",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "0x0ac91dc0674ea0b91e6eb9cc4a20968976d30fbce391a9050c70eaddf2fba354",
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-alphabet-be-the-largest-company-in-the-world-by-market-cap-on-december-31.",
            "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Alphabet (GOOG) is the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2025, as of market close. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-12-30",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-12-31T12:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-alphabet-be-the-largest-company-in-the-world-by-market-cap-on-december-31",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.049",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "0x6b38815380c25cd7a3a13ed39fb0ebb24397154f237a2488198c133bed0533c9",
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "XRP all time high by March 31?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/xrp-all-time-high-by-when-xrp-all-time-high-by-march-31.",
            "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any Binance 1 minute candle for XRPUSDT between 21 Jan '24 13:00 and 31 Mar '25 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final \u201cHigh\u201d price that is higher than any previous Binance 1 minute candle's \"High\" price on any prior date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the XRPUSDT \"High\" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/XRP_USDT with \u201c1m\u201d and \u201cCandles\u201d selected on the top bar.\n\nPlease note that this market is about the price according to Binance XRPUSDT, not according to other sources or spot markets.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-01-21",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-06-30T12:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/xrp-all-time-high-by-when-xrp-all-time-high-by-march-31",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.24",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "0x0f8b644e78bbe65c2ab9ff2aa3a9a0df135d76a46438b5584b3fe448d358bd47",
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-meta-have-the-top-ai-model-on-june-30.",
            "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model owned by Meta has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on June 30, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, \"Google\" would resolve to \"Yes\", and \"xAI\" would resolve to \"No\")\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-12-31",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-06-30T12:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-meta-have-the-top-ai-model-on-june-30",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.02",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "0xa57a712aa14e925e0e1615b737549a09b0f09db451910b68af6910b6f8b0494d",
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before June?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-migrate-from-sha-256-before-june.",
            "background": "On December 9, Google introduced Willow, a breakthrough state-of-the-art quantum chip. This achievement fueled speculation that Bitcoin's encryption may be vulnerable to quantum computers in the not-so-distant future (see https://www.cryptoglobe.com/latest/2024/12/does-googles-new-quantum-chip-willow-threaten-bitcoin-the-crypto-community-responds/). \n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Bitcoin stops using SHA-256 by May 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe resolution source will be the Bitcoin blockchain, in addition to a consensus of credible reporting.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-12-14",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-05-31T12:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-migrate-from-sha-256-before-june",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.025",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "0x35aaaa9b77b25834ddf3647bd4c34376ba3f1dcd87e3d4801c829b3658b15b82",
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before July?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/openai-announces-it-has-achieved-agi-before-july.",
            "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by June 30, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.\n",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-12-31",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-06-30T12:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/openai-announces-it-has-achieved-agi-before-july",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.095",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "0xd40a952afb5e78600bc4e41a1587a1f18fe40c803edc5d4a7d5de76ff8660ec2",
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-anthropic-have-the-top-ai-model-on-june-30.",
            "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model owned by Anthropic has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on June 30, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, \"Google\" would resolve to \"Yes\", and \"xAI\" would resolve to \"No\")\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-12-31",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-06-30T12:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-anthropic-have-the-top-ai-model-on-june-30",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.13",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "0x8309a3b9eb96171c215153b8dccc3bcbcfa84d709f10d9319f5cb8874ff2c728",
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-meta-have-the-top-ai-model-on-december-31.",
            "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model owned by Meta has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on December 31, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, \"Google\" would resolve to \"Yes\", and \"xAI\" would resolve to \"No\")\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-12-31",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-12-31T12:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-meta-have-the-top-ai-model-on-december-31",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.031",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "0x4becea47e17b95639cbbdbe31cd968d129823be89249c2b09b911c7333772b57",
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "Will xAI have the top AI model on June 30?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-xai-have-the-top-ai-model-on-june-30.",
            "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model owned by xAI has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on June 30, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, \"Google\" would resolve to \"Yes\", and \"xAI\" would resolve to \"No\")\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-12-31",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-06-30T12:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-xai-have-the-top-ai-model-on-june-30",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.28650000000000003",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "0xee17b7fabdd5cfda111e4d80924c9531befb688c65798cf87b54128f3d3ac643",
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-deepseek-have-the-top-ai-model-on-june-30.",
            "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model owned by DeepSeek has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on June 30, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, \"Google\" would resolve to \"Yes\", and \"xAI\" would resolve to \"No\")\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-12-31",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-06-30T12:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-deepseek-have-the-top-ai-model-on-june-30",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.066",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "0x570568964af751a02d31d4d829fed2f7afe8f51fdf592e0338a08cec065f01ea",
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "Will NASA estimate a 5% chance of asteroid hitting Earth?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-nasa-estimate-a-5-chance-of-asteroid-hitting-earth.",
            "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) estimates that the 2024 YR4 asteroid has a 5% or greater chance of hitting Earth at any point by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be information from NASA, specifically the Center for Near Earth Object Studies chart for Impact Risk Data, available here: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/.\n\nLook for \"(2024 YR4)\" under \"Object Designation\", and check the figure under \"Impact Probability (Cumulative)\" to find the information that will be used to resolve this market.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-02-06",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-06-30T12:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-nasa-estimate-a-5-chance-of-asteroid-hitting-earth",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.08650000000000001",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "0xa6852cb4eaf23193e9dc073471131102017ba31ac9571f5ee8a12c4cc1800d7c",
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-deepseek-have-the-top-ai-model-on-december-31.",
            "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model owned by DeepSeek has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on December 31, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, \"Google\" would resolve to \"Yes\", and \"xAI\" would resolve to \"No\")\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-12-31",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-12-31T12:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-deepseek-have-the-top-ai-model-on-december-31",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.05",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "0x161230064f6ce2924f0237a5b1b8de1bed35e91888ea91a6e0bc23de1d8118dd",
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "New pandemic before July?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/new-pandemic-before-july.",
            "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares any disease a pandemic between December 9, 2024 and June 30, 2025 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source will be official announcements from the World Health Organization.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-12-11",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-06-30T12:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/new-pandemic-before-july",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.075",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "0x7ffa1fcfaeac86d4a89afcb74c90296f0e7c3744ce5206183c9cb38651526e63",
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "New pandemic in 2025?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/new-pandemic-in-2025.",
            "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares any disease a pandemic between January 1, 2025 and December 31, 2025 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source will be official announcements from the World Health Organization.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-12-31",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-12-31T12:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/new-pandemic-in-2025",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.159",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "0xc634b556b8f47434d7837594ff59c9daea654c4d5c9c50e2a352736db1d5c656",
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "Bird flu pandemic before August 2025?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/bird-flu-pandemic-before-august-2025.",
            "background": "This market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares H5N1 (bird flu) a pandemic by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to \u201cNo\u201d.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information form the WHO, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-11-18",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-07-31T12:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/bird-flu-pandemic-before-august-2025",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.1",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "0x4fccc0dcb625ea55ff1ca0409bb44fe1952c04bc16cf5255002ceb2cc3791888",
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "Will Russia pull out of Syria before April 2025?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-russia-pull-out-of-syria.",
            "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Russia withdraws all conventional combat units from Syria by March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. \n\nThis market refers only to conventional Russian military units operating under the Ministry of Defense, such as ground forces, air forces, or naval personnel. The presence of private military contractors (PMCs) such as Wagner Group, military advisors, or special operations forces will not disqualify the market from resolving to \"Yes,\" provided there are no conventional Russian military units actively operating in Syria.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\n",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-12-02",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-03-31T12:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-russia-pull-out-of-syria",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.085",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "0x81fb3e948db1f5645556dbc01b96f50c319f1331ce8b745701197b8264c1d344",
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "Iran Nuke in 2025?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/iran-nuke-in-2025.",
            "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nOtherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-01-29",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-12-31T12:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/iran-nuke-in-2025",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.135",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "0xe3b31dd451916bf35fb28b6c9e6c1b249dac45ef6c2e02b4ef2faa40308b82df",
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "Will a nuclear weapon detonate by March 31?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-a-nuclear-weapon-detonate-by-march-31.",
            "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a nuclear weapon is detonated anywhere in the world between Dec 1, 2024 and March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market's resolution, any detonation of a nuclear weapon anywhere on the planet Earth will be sufficient to trigger a \"Yes\" resolution. This includes offensive usages, nuclear tests, and accidental detonations.\n\nUse/launch of a nuclear weapon that fails to detonate, a fake weapon that never detonates, or a dirty bomb that distributes radioactive material by means of a conventional explosion are not sufficient to trigger a \"Yes\" resolution of this market. Only a successful nuclear detonation will result in a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nThis market may resolve to \"Yes\" as soon as a nuclear detonation is confirmed by a preponderance of credible reporting.\n\nFor the purpose of this market's resolution, determination as to whether a detonation was nuclear will be made by a preponderance of credible reporting.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-12-02",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-03-31T12:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-a-nuclear-weapon-detonate-by-march-31",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0105",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "0x9fcb9901d142b5046467b4ea329508bdb19274eb1fd0fc833ee1916edd11cb73",
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "Nuclear weapon detonation in 2025?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/nuclear-weapon-detonation-in-2025.",
            "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a nuclear weapon is detonated anywhere in the world between January 1  and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market's resolution, any detonation of a nuclear weapon anywhere on the planet Earth or in space will be sufficient to trigger a \"Yes\" resolution. This includes offensive usages, nuclear tests, and accidental detonations.\n\nUse/launch of a nuclear weapon that fails to detonate, a fake weapon that never detonates, or a dirty bomb that distributes radioactive material by means of a conventional explosion are not sufficient to trigger a \"Yes\" resolution of this market. Only a successful nuclear detonation will result in a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nThis market may resolve to \"Yes\" as soon as a nuclear detonation is confirmed by a preponderance of credible reporting.\n\nFor the purpose of this market's resolution, determination as to whether a detonation was nuclear will be made by a preponderance of credible reporting.\n",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-12-29",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-12-31T12:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/nuclear-weapon-detonation-in-2025",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.155",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "0x961b81e093d72e41855131ee700d7e649a1b627cae26fa1b639897f79b51f62d",
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "U.S. forces in Gaza before April?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/us-forces-in-gaza-before-april.",
            "background": "This market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d if active regular US military personnel physically enter Gaza at any point between February 4, 2025, and March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. \n\nUS military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory as occurred during the US\u2019s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify. \n\nUS military personnel entering buffer zones under control of Israel will not qualify.\n\nHigh ranking U.S. service members entering Gaza for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage), military contractors, military advisors, and special operation forces will not qualify. \n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-02-05",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-03-31T12:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/us-forces-in-gaza-before-april",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.027",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "0x9d4aa0f7fc078388aa90b44726a7918756dfa3ef3b5d286759bc5677d466aed5",
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "China x Taiwan military clash by June 30?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/china-x-taiwan-military-clash-by-june-30.",
            "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between January 29, and June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA \"military encounter\" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a \"Yes\" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.\n\nNote: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-01-30",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-12-31T12:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/china-x-taiwan-military-clash-by-june-30",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0505",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "0xae05fb58c41ea3d2a51ac95ca0f5c48824038dc2d1dbf6ac3453ae39a76e71f4",
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "U.S. forces in Gaza before July?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/us-forces-in-gaza-before-july.",
            "background": "This market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d if active regular US military personnel physically enter Gaza at any point between February 4, 2025, and June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. \n\nUS military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory as occurred during the US\u2019s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify. \n\nUS military personnel entering buffer zones under control of Israel will not qualify.\n\nHigh ranking U.S. service members entering Gaza for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage), military contractors, military advisors, and special operation forces will not qualify. \n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-02-05",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-06-30T12:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/us-forces-in-gaza-before-july",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.115",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "0xcb1531b00e984865530f13e4ce35bcbc7d71615af98827b5e9aee2ca2984b626",
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-china-invade-taiwan-in-2025.",
            "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nTerritory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-01-29",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-12-31T12:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-china-invade-taiwan-in-2025",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.125",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "0x67cc22ede739a48424f07683b53b546579345c8c963a9b21b7e6c31501e84353",
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "Will the U.S. abandon Syrian base before April 2025?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-abandon-syrian-base-before-april-2025.",
            "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the U.S. abandons the Al-Tanf Military Facility in Syria by March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"abandon\" is defined as the U.S ceasing all military operations and withdrawing all personnel from the facility.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-12-03",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-03-31T12:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-abandon-syrian-base-before-april-2025",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.058",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "0x5b2691a691ece9066c2b855815e6c8784011833b17d85c65976dc7494b18e002",
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-russia-abandon-syrian-naval-base-before-april-2025.",
            "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Russia abandons the Tartus Naval Facility in Syria by March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"abandon\" is defined as Russia ceasing all military operations and withdrawing all personnel from the facility.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-12-02",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-03-31T12:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-russia-abandon-syrian-naval-base-before-april-2025",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.085",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "0xe6508d867d153a268bdab732aa8abc8cc57e652d28a23aa042da40895bf031b2",
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "Will 2025 be the hottest year on record?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-2025-be-the-hottest-year-on-record.",
            "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for 2025 shows an increase greater than that of any previously recorded year when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAn anomaly greater than that of any previously recorded year for 2025 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to \"Yes\" immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for 2024 and/or 2025 is later revised.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled \"Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)\" under the column \"No_Smoothing\" in the row \"2025\" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's \"Global Temperature Index\" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2025 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-12-31",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-12-31T12:00:00+00:00",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-2025-be-the-hottest-year-on-record",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.265",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
            "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "0x161230064f6ce2924f0237a5b1b8de1bed35e91888ea91a6e0bc23de1d8118dd",
                "0xc634b556b8f47434d7837594ff59c9daea654c4d5c9c50e2a352736db1d5c656"
            ],
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "0x161230064f6ce2924f0237a5b1b8de1bed35e91888ea91a6e0bc23de1d8118dd",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "New pandemic before July?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/new-pandemic-before-july.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares any disease a pandemic between December 9, 2024 and June 30, 2025 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source will be official announcements from the World Health Organization.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-12-11",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-06-30T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/new-pandemic-before-july",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.075",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "0xc634b556b8f47434d7837594ff59c9daea654c4d5c9c50e2a352736db1d5c656",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Bird flu pandemic before August 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/bird-flu-pandemic-before-august-2025.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares H5N1 (bird flu) a pandemic by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to \u201cNo\u201d.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information form the WHO, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-11-18",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-07-31T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/bird-flu-pandemic-before-august-2025",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.1",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "0x7ffa1fcfaeac86d4a89afcb74c90296f0e7c3744ce5206183c9cb38651526e63",
                "0xc634b556b8f47434d7837594ff59c9daea654c4d5c9c50e2a352736db1d5c656"
            ],
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "0x7ffa1fcfaeac86d4a89afcb74c90296f0e7c3744ce5206183c9cb38651526e63",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "New pandemic in 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/new-pandemic-in-2025.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares any disease a pandemic between January 1, 2025 and December 31, 2025 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source will be official announcements from the World Health Organization.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-12-31",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-12-31T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/new-pandemic-in-2025",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.159",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "0xc634b556b8f47434d7837594ff59c9daea654c4d5c9c50e2a352736db1d5c656",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Bird flu pandemic before August 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/bird-flu-pandemic-before-august-2025.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares H5N1 (bird flu) a pandemic by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to \u201cNo\u201d.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information form the WHO, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-11-18",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-07-31T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/bird-flu-pandemic-before-august-2025",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.1",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "0x4e26e75da2ec8c084efdb89b1883e7889f21ad32bc36a81ed13c001bebb72929",
                "0xd76d5172fffaaf2b0d0db29bd944a462654a20a4a327860e4e0438d13b6a4bee"
            ],
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "0x4e26e75da2ec8c084efdb89b1883e7889f21ad32bc36a81ed13c001bebb72929",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will Dominic Solanke be the top goalscorer in the EPL?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-dominic-solanke-be-the-top-goalscorer-in-the-epl.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d if Dominic Solanke is the top goalscorer for the 2024/2025 English Premier League season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \u201cNo.\u201d\n\nIf multiple players tie for the most goals in the 2024/2025 English Premier League season, the market will resolve based on most assists, then most games played, and finally the player\u2019s last name alphabetically if ties persist.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the English Premier League. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-09-20",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-05-25T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-dominic-solanke-be-the-top-goalscorer-in-the-epl",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0035",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "0xd76d5172fffaaf2b0d0db29bd944a462654a20a4a327860e4e0438d13b6a4bee",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-new-york-knicks-win-the-eastern-conference.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d if the New York Knicks win the 2024-2025 NBA Eastern Conference finals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \u201cNo\u201d.\n\nThis market will resolve to \u201cNo\u201d if it becomes impossible for this team to win the 2024-25 NBA Eastern Conference finals based off the rules of the NBA.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be information from the NBA.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-10-04",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-06-05T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-new-york-knicks-win-the-eastern-conference",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.135",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "0xd40a952afb5e78600bc4e41a1587a1f18fe40c803edc5d4a7d5de76ff8660ec2",
                "0x8309a3b9eb96171c215153b8dccc3bcbcfa84d709f10d9319f5cb8874ff2c728"
            ],
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "0xd40a952afb5e78600bc4e41a1587a1f18fe40c803edc5d4a7d5de76ff8660ec2",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-anthropic-have-the-top-ai-model-on-june-30.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model owned by Anthropic has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on June 30, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, \"Google\" would resolve to \"Yes\", and \"xAI\" would resolve to \"No\")\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-12-31",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-06-30T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-anthropic-have-the-top-ai-model-on-june-30",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.13",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "0x8309a3b9eb96171c215153b8dccc3bcbcfa84d709f10d9319f5cb8874ff2c728",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-meta-have-the-top-ai-model-on-december-31.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model owned by Meta has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on December 31, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, \"Google\" would resolve to \"Yes\", and \"xAI\" would resolve to \"No\")\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-12-31",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-12-31T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-meta-have-the-top-ai-model-on-december-31",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.031",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "0xfd1769e0e3f29a593d521c545cbe84b559869b188b0b085fcc33756e4ba0bb0f",
                "0xcecc6b0236a69618a3ca577c54bb92080b0c9f2dc767de37175baa7ffd08e704"
            ],
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "0xfd1769e0e3f29a593d521c545cbe84b559869b188b0b085fcc33756e4ba0bb0f",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will Malta win Eurovision 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-malta-win-eurovision-2025.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2025 wins.\n\nIf at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2025 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no winner is announced by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve \"Other\". If two or more countries tie to win Eurovision 2025, this market will resolve to the country which comes first alphabetically.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2025, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-02-03",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-05-17T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-malta-win-eurovision-2025",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.035500000000000004",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "0xcecc6b0236a69618a3ca577c54bb92080b0c9f2dc767de37175baa7ffd08e704",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will Albania win Eurovision 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-albania-win-eurovision-2025.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2025 wins.\n\nIf at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2025 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no winner is announced by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve \"Other\". If two or more countries tie to win Eurovision 2025, this market will resolve to the country which comes first alphabetically.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2025, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-02-03",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-05-17T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-albania-win-eurovision-2025",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0095",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "0x6305af093bee55cfc31252a2ee4fac4b5af533b4884fda44978a1dfc8354343b",
                "0x1bbdc459d73e6972f5ba1f687d739fde70a9774f4875611699fb00a9eb28f090"
            ],
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "0x6305af093bee55cfc31252a2ee4fac4b5af533b4884fda44978a1dfc8354343b",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Doge ETF approved by July 31?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/doge-etf-approved-by-july-31-2025.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any spot Dogecoin ETF receives approval from the SEC by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nApproval under Rule 19-4b will qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution, even if there has not been an S-1 approval. Similarly, an S-1 approval without a 19-4b approval will also qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the SEC, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-11-21",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-07-31T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/doge-etf-approved-by-july-31-2025",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.34500000000000003",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "0x1bbdc459d73e6972f5ba1f687d739fde70a9774f4875611699fb00a9eb28f090",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Tether insolvent in 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/tether-insolvent-in-2025.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if official information released by Tether Limited Inc., official representatives of Tether Limited Inc. (e.g. lawyers, spokespeople, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting announces by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET that Tether Limited Inc. is insolvent or is filing/has filed for any variety of bankruptcy. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-12-29",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-12-31T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/tether-insolvent-in-2025",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.09",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "0xe3b31dd451916bf35fb28b6c9e6c1b249dac45ef6c2e02b4ef2faa40308b82df",
                "0x5b2691a691ece9066c2b855815e6c8784011833b17d85c65976dc7494b18e002"
            ],
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "0xe3b31dd451916bf35fb28b6c9e6c1b249dac45ef6c2e02b4ef2faa40308b82df",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will a nuclear weapon detonate by March 31?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-a-nuclear-weapon-detonate-by-march-31.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a nuclear weapon is detonated anywhere in the world between Dec 1, 2024 and March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market's resolution, any detonation of a nuclear weapon anywhere on the planet Earth will be sufficient to trigger a \"Yes\" resolution. This includes offensive usages, nuclear tests, and accidental detonations.\n\nUse/launch of a nuclear weapon that fails to detonate, a fake weapon that never detonates, or a dirty bomb that distributes radioactive material by means of a conventional explosion are not sufficient to trigger a \"Yes\" resolution of this market. Only a successful nuclear detonation will result in a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nThis market may resolve to \"Yes\" as soon as a nuclear detonation is confirmed by a preponderance of credible reporting.\n\nFor the purpose of this market's resolution, determination as to whether a detonation was nuclear will be made by a preponderance of credible reporting.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-12-02",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-03-31T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-a-nuclear-weapon-detonate-by-march-31",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0105",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "0x5b2691a691ece9066c2b855815e6c8784011833b17d85c65976dc7494b18e002",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-russia-abandon-syrian-naval-base-before-april-2025.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Russia abandons the Tartus Naval Facility in Syria by March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"abandon\" is defined as Russia ceasing all military operations and withdrawing all personnel from the facility.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-12-02",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-03-31T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-russia-abandon-syrian-naval-base-before-april-2025",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.085",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "0xfb6268e2f40d8a59d1320117d20e11ba8547273641205de1ca446f40f90cd913",
                "0x4833d7259bc503e8d211c477f7d21a00629e926382f920195d697fca38d4ad9b"
            ],
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "0xfb6268e2f40d8a59d1320117d20e11ba8547273641205de1ca446f40f90cd913",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will Greece win Eurovision 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-greece-win-eurovision-2025.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2025 wins.\n\nIf at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2025 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no winner is announced by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve \"Other\". If two or more countries tie to win Eurovision 2025, this market will resolve to the country which comes first alphabetically.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2025, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-02-03",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-05-17T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-greece-win-eurovision-2025",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0115",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "0x4833d7259bc503e8d211c477f7d21a00629e926382f920195d697fca38d4ad9b",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will Latvia win Eurovision 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-latvia-win-eurovision-2025.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2025 wins.\n\nIf at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2025 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no winner is announced by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve \"Other\". If two or more countries tie to win Eurovision 2025, this market will resolve to the country which comes first alphabetically.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2025, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-02-03",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-05-17T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-latvia-win-eurovision-2025",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.005",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "0x8309a3b9eb96171c215153b8dccc3bcbcfa84d709f10d9319f5cb8874ff2c728",
                "0x570568964af751a02d31d4d829fed2f7afe8f51fdf592e0338a08cec065f01ea"
            ],
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "0x8309a3b9eb96171c215153b8dccc3bcbcfa84d709f10d9319f5cb8874ff2c728",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-meta-have-the-top-ai-model-on-december-31.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model owned by Meta has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on December 31, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, \"Google\" would resolve to \"Yes\", and \"xAI\" would resolve to \"No\")\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-12-31",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-12-31T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-meta-have-the-top-ai-model-on-december-31",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.031",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "0x570568964af751a02d31d4d829fed2f7afe8f51fdf592e0338a08cec065f01ea",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will NASA estimate a 5% chance of asteroid hitting Earth?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-nasa-estimate-a-5-chance-of-asteroid-hitting-earth.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) estimates that the 2024 YR4 asteroid has a 5% or greater chance of hitting Earth at any point by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be information from NASA, specifically the Center for Near Earth Object Studies chart for Impact Risk Data, available here: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/.\n\nLook for \"(2024 YR4)\" under \"Object Designation\", and check the figure under \"Impact Probability (Cumulative)\" to find the information that will be used to resolve this market.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-02-06",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-06-30T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-nasa-estimate-a-5-chance-of-asteroid-hitting-earth",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.08650000000000001",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "0xe87b10afe191706bb36b22526b65983e2a88a12ccce36827e857e16791973493",
                "0xcecc6b0236a69618a3ca577c54bb92080b0c9f2dc767de37175baa7ffd08e704"
            ],
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "0xe87b10afe191706bb36b22526b65983e2a88a12ccce36827e857e16791973493",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-a-minecraft-movie-be-the-top-grossing-movie-of-2025.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the \"Gross\" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2025/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses shows 'A Minecraft Movie' (2025) as the film with the highest 2025 gross once data for December 31 is made available. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nNote: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2025 - dates outside of 2025 will not count toward this movie's gross.\n\nIn the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner.\n\nIf there is no final data available by January 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-01-02",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-12-31T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-a-minecraft-movie-be-the-top-grossing-movie-of-2025",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.08650000000000001",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "0xcecc6b0236a69618a3ca577c54bb92080b0c9f2dc767de37175baa7ffd08e704",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will Albania win Eurovision 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-albania-win-eurovision-2025.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2025 wins.\n\nIf at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2025 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no winner is announced by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve \"Other\". If two or more countries tie to win Eurovision 2025, this market will resolve to the country which comes first alphabetically.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2025, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-02-03",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-05-17T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-albania-win-eurovision-2025",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0095",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "0x81fb3e948db1f5645556dbc01b96f50c319f1331ce8b745701197b8264c1d344",
                "0xcb1531b00e984865530f13e4ce35bcbc7d71615af98827b5e9aee2ca2984b626"
            ],
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "0x81fb3e948db1f5645556dbc01b96f50c319f1331ce8b745701197b8264c1d344",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Iran Nuke in 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/iran-nuke-in-2025.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nOtherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-01-29",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-12-31T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/iran-nuke-in-2025",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.135",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "0xcb1531b00e984865530f13e4ce35bcbc7d71615af98827b5e9aee2ca2984b626",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-china-invade-taiwan-in-2025.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nTerritory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-01-29",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-12-31T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-china-invade-taiwan-in-2025",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.125",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "0xfb6268e2f40d8a59d1320117d20e11ba8547273641205de1ca446f40f90cd913",
                "0xfd1769e0e3f29a593d521c545cbe84b559869b188b0b085fcc33756e4ba0bb0f"
            ],
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "0xfb6268e2f40d8a59d1320117d20e11ba8547273641205de1ca446f40f90cd913",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will Greece win Eurovision 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-greece-win-eurovision-2025.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2025 wins.\n\nIf at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2025 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no winner is announced by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve \"Other\". If two or more countries tie to win Eurovision 2025, this market will resolve to the country which comes first alphabetically.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2025, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-02-03",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-05-17T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-greece-win-eurovision-2025",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0115",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "0xfd1769e0e3f29a593d521c545cbe84b559869b188b0b085fcc33756e4ba0bb0f",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will Malta win Eurovision 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-malta-win-eurovision-2025.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2025 wins.\n\nIf at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2025 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no winner is announced by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve \"Other\". If two or more countries tie to win Eurovision 2025, this market will resolve to the country which comes first alphabetically.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2025, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-02-03",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-05-17T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-malta-win-eurovision-2025",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.035500000000000004",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "0x5dd6d072364a196c2c980b52d9df93599a63ff497619e0b6a028f9ec7d4d3252",
                "0xcecc6b0236a69618a3ca577c54bb92080b0c9f2dc767de37175baa7ffd08e704"
            ],
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "0x5dd6d072364a196c2c980b52d9df93599a63ff497619e0b6a028f9ec7d4d3252",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will Denmark win Eurovision 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-denmark-win-eurovision-2025.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2025 wins.\n\nIf at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2025 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no winner is announced by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve \"Other\". If two or more countries tie to win Eurovision 2025, this market will resolve to the country which comes first alphabetically.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2025, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-02-03",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-05-17T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-denmark-win-eurovision-2025",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.008",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "0xcecc6b0236a69618a3ca577c54bb92080b0c9f2dc767de37175baa7ffd08e704",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will Albania win Eurovision 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-albania-win-eurovision-2025.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2025 wins.\n\nIf at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2025 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no winner is announced by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve \"Other\". If two or more countries tie to win Eurovision 2025, this market will resolve to the country which comes first alphabetically.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2025, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-02-03",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-05-17T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-albania-win-eurovision-2025",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0095",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "0x50b8b0f741566a420756d975faaf4cc4716229cd5183c3a35b3b20ac2b5050ef",
                "0x63e3c9432d9e3a0e9665d1152fc0a05f6ed17c9033eb9290062d25d2afb2bed5"
            ],
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "0x50b8b0f741566a420756d975faaf4cc4716229cd5183c3a35b3b20ac2b5050ef",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will a new country buy Bitcoin in 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-a-new-country-buy-bitcoin-in-2025.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the government of any sovereign UN member state announces between January 1 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET that they bought Bitcoin for the first time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis announcement can pertain to a first purchase of Bitcoin outside of the timeframe of this market (e.g. if a country announces it made its first purchase of Bitcoin prior to this market's timeframe, but the announcement is made within the timeframe, this market will resolve to \"Yes\").\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official announcements from the governments of any purchasing UN member state, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-12-31",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-12-31T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-a-new-country-buy-bitcoin-in-2025",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.705",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "0x63e3c9432d9e3a0e9665d1152fc0a05f6ed17c9033eb9290062d25d2afb2bed5",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-reach-110000-by-december-31-2025.",
                    "background": "This market will immediately resolve to \"Yes\" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) between December 30, 2024, 20:00 and December 31, 2025, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final \"High\" price of $110,000 or higher. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTCUSDT \"High\" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on \"1m\" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar.\n\nPlease note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTCUSDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-12-30",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-12-31T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-reach-110000-by-december-31-2025",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.8245",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "0x0f8b644e78bbe65c2ab9ff2aa3a9a0df135d76a46438b5584b3fe448d358bd47",
                "0x35aaaa9b77b25834ddf3647bd4c34376ba3f1dcd87e3d4801c829b3658b15b82"
            ],
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "0x0f8b644e78bbe65c2ab9ff2aa3a9a0df135d76a46438b5584b3fe448d358bd47",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-meta-have-the-top-ai-model-on-june-30.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model owned by Meta has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on June 30, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, \"Google\" would resolve to \"Yes\", and \"xAI\" would resolve to \"No\")\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-12-31",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-06-30T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-meta-have-the-top-ai-model-on-june-30",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.02",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "0x35aaaa9b77b25834ddf3647bd4c34376ba3f1dcd87e3d4801c829b3658b15b82",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before July?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/openai-announces-it-has-achieved-agi-before-july.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by June 30, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-12-31",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-06-30T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/openai-announces-it-has-achieved-agi-before-july",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.095",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "0x0f8b644e78bbe65c2ab9ff2aa3a9a0df135d76a46438b5584b3fe448d358bd47",
                "0x8309a3b9eb96171c215153b8dccc3bcbcfa84d709f10d9319f5cb8874ff2c728"
            ],
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "0x0f8b644e78bbe65c2ab9ff2aa3a9a0df135d76a46438b5584b3fe448d358bd47",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-meta-have-the-top-ai-model-on-june-30.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model owned by Meta has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on June 30, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, \"Google\" would resolve to \"Yes\", and \"xAI\" would resolve to \"No\")\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-12-31",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-06-30T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-meta-have-the-top-ai-model-on-june-30",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.02",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "0x8309a3b9eb96171c215153b8dccc3bcbcfa84d709f10d9319f5cb8874ff2c728",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-meta-have-the-top-ai-model-on-december-31.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model owned by Meta has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on December 31, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, \"Google\" would resolve to \"Yes\", and \"xAI\" would resolve to \"No\")\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-12-31",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-12-31T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-meta-have-the-top-ai-model-on-december-31",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.031",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "0x9fcb9901d142b5046467b4ea329508bdb19274eb1fd0fc833ee1916edd11cb73",
                "0x961b81e093d72e41855131ee700d7e649a1b627cae26fa1b639897f79b51f62d"
            ],
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "0x9fcb9901d142b5046467b4ea329508bdb19274eb1fd0fc833ee1916edd11cb73",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Nuclear weapon detonation in 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/nuclear-weapon-detonation-in-2025.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a nuclear weapon is detonated anywhere in the world between January 1  and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market's resolution, any detonation of a nuclear weapon anywhere on the planet Earth or in space will be sufficient to trigger a \"Yes\" resolution. This includes offensive usages, nuclear tests, and accidental detonations.\n\nUse/launch of a nuclear weapon that fails to detonate, a fake weapon that never detonates, or a dirty bomb that distributes radioactive material by means of a conventional explosion are not sufficient to trigger a \"Yes\" resolution of this market. Only a successful nuclear detonation will result in a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nThis market may resolve to \"Yes\" as soon as a nuclear detonation is confirmed by a preponderance of credible reporting.\n\nFor the purpose of this market's resolution, determination as to whether a detonation was nuclear will be made by a preponderance of credible reporting.\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-12-29",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-12-31T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/nuclear-weapon-detonation-in-2025",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.155",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "0x961b81e093d72e41855131ee700d7e649a1b627cae26fa1b639897f79b51f62d",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "U.S. forces in Gaza before April?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/us-forces-in-gaza-before-april.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d if active regular US military personnel physically enter Gaza at any point between February 4, 2025, and March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. \n\nUS military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory as occurred during the US\u2019s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify. \n\nUS military personnel entering buffer zones under control of Israel will not qualify.\n\nHigh ranking U.S. service members entering Gaza for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage), military contractors, military advisors, and special operation forces will not qualify. \n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-02-05",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-03-31T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/us-forces-in-gaza-before-april",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.027",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "0xd40a952afb5e78600bc4e41a1587a1f18fe40c803edc5d4a7d5de76ff8660ec2",
                "0xa6852cb4eaf23193e9dc073471131102017ba31ac9571f5ee8a12c4cc1800d7c"
            ],
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "0xd40a952afb5e78600bc4e41a1587a1f18fe40c803edc5d4a7d5de76ff8660ec2",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-anthropic-have-the-top-ai-model-on-june-30.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model owned by Anthropic has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on June 30, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, \"Google\" would resolve to \"Yes\", and \"xAI\" would resolve to \"No\")\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-12-31",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-06-30T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-anthropic-have-the-top-ai-model-on-june-30",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.13",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "0xa6852cb4eaf23193e9dc073471131102017ba31ac9571f5ee8a12c4cc1800d7c",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-deepseek-have-the-top-ai-model-on-december-31.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model owned by DeepSeek has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on December 31, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, \"Google\" would resolve to \"Yes\", and \"xAI\" would resolve to \"No\")\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-12-31",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-12-31T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-deepseek-have-the-top-ai-model-on-december-31",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.05",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "0xc0955534ca110306e37acafd184115ec86a0c989bf2ebd937b0f3b34f49e32c8",
                "0xa9fcdaf248a0560f83cf7c7e75cad23d3151b2169a22f22b316eb822bdc27329"
            ],
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "0xc0955534ca110306e37acafd184115ec86a0c989bf2ebd937b0f3b34f49e32c8",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea in 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/kim-jong-un-out-as-supreme-leader-of-north-korea-in-2025.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Supreme Leader of North Korea Kim Jong Un is removed from power for any length of time between January 28, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nKim Jong Un will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Supreme Leader of North Korea within this market's timeframe.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-01-29",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-12-31T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/kim-jong-un-out-as-supreme-leader-of-north-korea-in-2025",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.085",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "0xa9fcdaf248a0560f83cf7c7e75cad23d3151b2169a22f22b316eb822bdc27329",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will Anita Anand be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-anita-anand-be-the-next-leader-of-the-canadian-liberal-party.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the first leader of The Liberal Party of Canada following Justin Trudeau is Anita Anand. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next permanent  leader of The Liberal Party of Canada after Justin Trudeau. Any interim or acting leader of the party will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official information from The Liberal Party of Canada; however, a consensus of credible media sources will also suffice.\n\nIf Justin Trudeau remains the  leader of the The Liberal Party of Canada or the next leader of the The Liberal Party of Canada after Justin Trudeau is not announced by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-01-06",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-12-31T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-anita-anand-be-the-next-leader-of-the-canadian-liberal-party",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0015",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "0xf78b84e417dec6b34f6cbea7002cfb4b16df21aa1cecc8eb701e2e58baf3fcdf",
                "0x73b046b7970a1780f1d7a0cacf73413325911dd87cdc5b63cfdc27496110fb1b"
            ],
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "0xf78b84e417dec6b34f6cbea7002cfb4b16df21aa1cecc8eb701e2e58baf3fcdf",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Trump takes Panama Canal in 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/trump-takes-panama-canal-in-2025.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Panama Canal comes under US control by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, US control means the United States assumes primary operational authority over the canal, either via diplomatic agreement, military action, or any other means.\n\nAn official announcement made by the United States and Panama that the Panama Canal will come under US control will qualify, even if the actual transfer of control is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government and the Government of Panama, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Panama Canal has come under US sovereignty will also qualify.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-01-08",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-12-31T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/trump-takes-panama-canal-in-2025",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.145",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "0x73b046b7970a1780f1d7a0cacf73413325911dd87cdc5b63cfdc27496110fb1b",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will Turkey leave NATO by June 30?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-turkey-leave-nato-by-june-30.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Turkey formally withdraws from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to the United States government by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.\n\nTurkey's exit from NATO\u2019s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to \"Yes\". Turkey must either withdraw or submit a notice of denunciation to trigger a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nThe resolution source will be official information from the Turkish government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-12-20",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-06-30T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-turkey-leave-nato-by-june-30",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.05",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "0x4fccc0dcb625ea55ff1ca0409bb44fe1952c04bc16cf5255002ceb2cc3791888",
                "0xcb1531b00e984865530f13e4ce35bcbc7d71615af98827b5e9aee2ca2984b626"
            ],
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "0x4fccc0dcb625ea55ff1ca0409bb44fe1952c04bc16cf5255002ceb2cc3791888",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will Russia pull out of Syria before April 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-russia-pull-out-of-syria.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Russia withdraws all conventional combat units from Syria by March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. \n\nThis market refers only to conventional Russian military units operating under the Ministry of Defense, such as ground forces, air forces, or naval personnel. The presence of private military contractors (PMCs) such as Wagner Group, military advisors, or special operations forces will not disqualify the market from resolving to \"Yes,\" provided there are no conventional Russian military units actively operating in Syria.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-12-02",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-03-31T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-russia-pull-out-of-syria",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.085",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "0xcb1531b00e984865530f13e4ce35bcbc7d71615af98827b5e9aee2ca2984b626",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-china-invade-taiwan-in-2025.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nTerritory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-01-29",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-12-31T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-china-invade-taiwan-in-2025",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.125",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "0xae05fb58c41ea3d2a51ac95ca0f5c48824038dc2d1dbf6ac3453ae39a76e71f4",
                "0xcb1531b00e984865530f13e4ce35bcbc7d71615af98827b5e9aee2ca2984b626"
            ],
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "0xae05fb58c41ea3d2a51ac95ca0f5c48824038dc2d1dbf6ac3453ae39a76e71f4",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "U.S. forces in Gaza before July?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/us-forces-in-gaza-before-july.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d if active regular US military personnel physically enter Gaza at any point between February 4, 2025, and June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. \n\nUS military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory as occurred during the US\u2019s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify. \n\nUS military personnel entering buffer zones under control of Israel will not qualify.\n\nHigh ranking U.S. service members entering Gaza for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage), military contractors, military advisors, and special operation forces will not qualify. \n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-02-05",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-06-30T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/us-forces-in-gaza-before-july",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.115",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "0xcb1531b00e984865530f13e4ce35bcbc7d71615af98827b5e9aee2ca2984b626",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-china-invade-taiwan-in-2025.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nTerritory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-01-29",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-12-31T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-china-invade-taiwan-in-2025",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.125",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "0xa2bc057dc5589c13f985a22e36678d8a5fe85ea8b96f5d3256123c3951d142b7",
                "0x3f816d82200f0198e72df1175e21d9f757e274307a5f93d075e3c14c7f9a4377"
            ],
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "0xa2bc057dc5589c13f985a22e36678d8a5fe85ea8b96f5d3256123c3951d142b7",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will the Utah Hockey Club win the 2025 President\u2019s Trophy?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-utah-hockey-club-win-the-2025-presidents-trophy.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d if the Utah Hockey Club win the 2025 NHL President\u2019s Trophy. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \u201cNo\u201d.\n\nThis market will resolve to \u201cNo\u201d if it becomes impossible for this team to win the 2025 President\u2019s Trophy based off the rules of the NHL.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be information from the NHL.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-01-15",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-04-17T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-utah-hockey-club-win-the-2025-presidents-trophy",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.003",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "0x3f816d82200f0198e72df1175e21d9f757e274307a5f93d075e3c14c7f9a4377",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will the Toronto Maple Leafs win the 2025 Stanley Cup?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-toronto-maple-leafs-win-the-2025-stanley-cup.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d if the Toronto Maple Leafs win the 2025 NHL Stanley Cup. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \u201cNo\u201d.\n\nThis market will resolve to \u201cNo\u201d if it becomes impossible for this team to win the 2025 NHL Stanley Cup based off the rules of the NHL.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be information from the NHL.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-10-08",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-06-23T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-toronto-maple-leafs-win-the-2025-stanley-cup",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.065",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "0x54377fdef57c1c82b31385a9164e87ff58a92ec6bb64cd55bc6d88a9e2b82fd6",
                "0x5b38be7d23ad6179dbbc460e4f753760594c3fb64478f2d441776cbcd794db8a"
            ],
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "0x54377fdef57c1c82b31385a9164e87ff58a92ec6bb64cd55bc6d88a9e2b82fd6",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-montenegro-win-eurovision-2025.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2025 wins.\n\nIf at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2025 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no winner is announced by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve \"Other\". If two or more countries tie to win Eurovision 2025, this market will resolve to the country which comes first alphabetically.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2025, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-02-03",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-05-17T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-montenegro-win-eurovision-2025",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0035",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "0x5b38be7d23ad6179dbbc460e4f753760594c3fb64478f2d441776cbcd794db8a",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will Germany win Eurovision 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-germany-win-eurovision-2025.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2025 wins.\n\nIf at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2025 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no winner is announced by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve \"Other\". If two or more countries tie to win Eurovision 2025, this market will resolve to the country which comes first alphabetically.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2025, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-02-03",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-05-17T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-germany-win-eurovision-2025",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.021500000000000002",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "0xfb6268e2f40d8a59d1320117d20e11ba8547273641205de1ca446f40f90cd913",
                "0x55881f30e5f88d7dece08a4e63daa633a9c1905ff0d454088dc16d19881fe3f8"
            ],
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "0xfb6268e2f40d8a59d1320117d20e11ba8547273641205de1ca446f40f90cd913",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will Greece win Eurovision 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-greece-win-eurovision-2025.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2025 wins.\n\nIf at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2025 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no winner is announced by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve \"Other\". If two or more countries tie to win Eurovision 2025, this market will resolve to the country which comes first alphabetically.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2025, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-02-03",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-05-17T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-greece-win-eurovision-2025",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0115",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "0x55881f30e5f88d7dece08a4e63daa633a9c1905ff0d454088dc16d19881fe3f8",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will Italy win Eurovision 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-italy-win-eurovision-2025.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2025 wins.\n\nIf at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2025 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no winner is announced by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve \"Other\". If two or more countries tie to win Eurovision 2025, this market will resolve to the country which comes first alphabetically.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2025, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-02-03",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-05-17T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-italy-win-eurovision-2025",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0155",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "0x55881f30e5f88d7dece08a4e63daa633a9c1905ff0d454088dc16d19881fe3f8",
                "0x677826754ff7328696c121a398fdf495dcd2e04f84ecb6494b85b2883ccaa6ca"
            ],
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "0x55881f30e5f88d7dece08a4e63daa633a9c1905ff0d454088dc16d19881fe3f8",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will Italy win Eurovision 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-italy-win-eurovision-2025.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2025 wins.\n\nIf at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2025 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no winner is announced by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve \"Other\". If two or more countries tie to win Eurovision 2025, this market will resolve to the country which comes first alphabetically.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2025, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-02-03",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-05-17T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-italy-win-eurovision-2025",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0155",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "0x677826754ff7328696c121a398fdf495dcd2e04f84ecb6494b85b2883ccaa6ca",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-netherlands-win-eurovision-2025.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2025 wins.\n\nIf at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2025 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no winner is announced by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve \"Other\". If two or more countries tie to win Eurovision 2025, this market will resolve to the country which comes first alphabetically.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2025, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-02-03",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-05-17T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-netherlands-win-eurovision-2025",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.02",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "0x73b046b7970a1780f1d7a0cacf73413325911dd87cdc5b63cfdc27496110fb1b",
                "0xc0955534ca110306e37acafd184115ec86a0c989bf2ebd937b0f3b34f49e32c8"
            ],
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "0x73b046b7970a1780f1d7a0cacf73413325911dd87cdc5b63cfdc27496110fb1b",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will Turkey leave NATO by June 30?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-turkey-leave-nato-by-june-30.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Turkey formally withdraws from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to the United States government by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.\n\nTurkey's exit from NATO\u2019s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to \"Yes\". Turkey must either withdraw or submit a notice of denunciation to trigger a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nThe resolution source will be official information from the Turkish government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-12-20",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-06-30T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-turkey-leave-nato-by-june-30",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.05",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "0xc0955534ca110306e37acafd184115ec86a0c989bf2ebd937b0f3b34f49e32c8",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea in 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/kim-jong-un-out-as-supreme-leader-of-north-korea-in-2025.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Supreme Leader of North Korea Kim Jong Un is removed from power for any length of time between January 28, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nKim Jong Un will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Supreme Leader of North Korea within this market's timeframe.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-01-29",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-12-31T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/kim-jong-un-out-as-supreme-leader-of-north-korea-in-2025",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.085",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "0x0f8b644e78bbe65c2ab9ff2aa3a9a0df135d76a46438b5584b3fe448d358bd47",
                "0x570568964af751a02d31d4d829fed2f7afe8f51fdf592e0338a08cec065f01ea"
            ],
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "0x0f8b644e78bbe65c2ab9ff2aa3a9a0df135d76a46438b5584b3fe448d358bd47",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-meta-have-the-top-ai-model-on-june-30.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model owned by Meta has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on June 30, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, \"Google\" would resolve to \"Yes\", and \"xAI\" would resolve to \"No\")\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-12-31",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-06-30T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-meta-have-the-top-ai-model-on-june-30",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.02",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "0x570568964af751a02d31d4d829fed2f7afe8f51fdf592e0338a08cec065f01ea",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will NASA estimate a 5% chance of asteroid hitting Earth?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-nasa-estimate-a-5-chance-of-asteroid-hitting-earth.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) estimates that the 2024 YR4 asteroid has a 5% or greater chance of hitting Earth at any point by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be information from NASA, specifically the Center for Near Earth Object Studies chart for Impact Risk Data, available here: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/.\n\nLook for \"(2024 YR4)\" under \"Object Designation\", and check the figure under \"Impact Probability (Cumulative)\" to find the information that will be used to resolve this market.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-02-06",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-06-30T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-nasa-estimate-a-5-chance-of-asteroid-hitting-earth",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.08650000000000001",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "0x9fcb9901d142b5046467b4ea329508bdb19274eb1fd0fc833ee1916edd11cb73",
                "0x67cc22ede739a48424f07683b53b546579345c8c963a9b21b7e6c31501e84353"
            ],
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "0x9fcb9901d142b5046467b4ea329508bdb19274eb1fd0fc833ee1916edd11cb73",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Nuclear weapon detonation in 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/nuclear-weapon-detonation-in-2025.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a nuclear weapon is detonated anywhere in the world between January 1  and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market's resolution, any detonation of a nuclear weapon anywhere on the planet Earth or in space will be sufficient to trigger a \"Yes\" resolution. This includes offensive usages, nuclear tests, and accidental detonations.\n\nUse/launch of a nuclear weapon that fails to detonate, a fake weapon that never detonates, or a dirty bomb that distributes radioactive material by means of a conventional explosion are not sufficient to trigger a \"Yes\" resolution of this market. Only a successful nuclear detonation will result in a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nThis market may resolve to \"Yes\" as soon as a nuclear detonation is confirmed by a preponderance of credible reporting.\n\nFor the purpose of this market's resolution, determination as to whether a detonation was nuclear will be made by a preponderance of credible reporting.\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-12-29",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-12-31T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/nuclear-weapon-detonation-in-2025",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.155",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "0x67cc22ede739a48424f07683b53b546579345c8c963a9b21b7e6c31501e84353",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will the U.S. abandon Syrian base before April 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-abandon-syrian-base-before-april-2025.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the U.S. abandons the Al-Tanf Military Facility in Syria by March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"abandon\" is defined as the U.S ceasing all military operations and withdrawing all personnel from the facility.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-12-03",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-03-31T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-abandon-syrian-base-before-april-2025",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.058",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "0x0ee1d66c2dd4f81fb8bb502b3318c6d0790ff887a38e082c393bee415872e1c3",
                "0x9d98de23d9a87c7fe785f5b80fe0a030cc46b28863dd2b67971fe95cca4814da"
            ],
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "0x0ee1d66c2dd4f81fb8bb502b3318c6d0790ff887a38e082c393bee415872e1c3",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will Ipswich Town finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-ipswich-town-finish-in-2nd-place-for-the-2024-25-epl-season.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve according to the team that finishes in 2nd place for the 2024-25 English Premier League.\n\nIf it is impossible for a team to finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 English Premier League based on the rules of the EPL (i.e. they are mathematically eliminated from finishing in 2nd place), the corresponding market will immediately resolve to \u201cNo\u201d. Potential retroactive points deductions past these points will have no bearing on this market\u2019s resolution.\n\nIf the season is permanently canceled, or otherwise the standings have not been finalized by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be information from the EPL.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-02-12",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-05-25T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-ipswich-town-finish-in-2nd-place-for-the-2024-25-epl-season",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0015",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "0x9d98de23d9a87c7fe785f5b80fe0a030cc46b28863dd2b67971fe95cca4814da",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-la-clippers-win-the-western-conference.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d if the LA Clippers win the 2024-2025 NBA Western Conference finals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \u201cNo\u201d.\n\nThis market will resolve to \u201cNo\u201d if it becomes impossible for this team to win the 2024-25 NBA Western Conference finals based off the rules of the NBA.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be information from the NBA.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-10-04",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-06-05T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-la-clippers-win-the-western-conference",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.059500000000000004",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "0x9d4aa0f7fc078388aa90b44726a7918756dfa3ef3b5d286759bc5677d466aed5",
                "0xae05fb58c41ea3d2a51ac95ca0f5c48824038dc2d1dbf6ac3453ae39a76e71f4"
            ],
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "0x9d4aa0f7fc078388aa90b44726a7918756dfa3ef3b5d286759bc5677d466aed5",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "China x Taiwan military clash by June 30?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/china-x-taiwan-military-clash-by-june-30.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between January 29, and June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA \"military encounter\" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a \"Yes\" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.\n\nNote: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-01-30",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-12-31T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/china-x-taiwan-military-clash-by-june-30",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0505",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "0xae05fb58c41ea3d2a51ac95ca0f5c48824038dc2d1dbf6ac3453ae39a76e71f4",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "U.S. forces in Gaza before July?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/us-forces-in-gaza-before-july.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d if active regular US military personnel physically enter Gaza at any point between February 4, 2025, and June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. \n\nUS military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory as occurred during the US\u2019s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify. \n\nUS military personnel entering buffer zones under control of Israel will not qualify.\n\nHigh ranking U.S. service members entering Gaza for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage), military contractors, military advisors, and special operation forces will not qualify. \n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-02-05",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-06-30T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/us-forces-in-gaza-before-july",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.115",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "0x4e26e75da2ec8c084efdb89b1883e7889f21ad32bc36a81ed13c001bebb72929",
                "0x3f816d82200f0198e72df1175e21d9f757e274307a5f93d075e3c14c7f9a4377"
            ],
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "0x4e26e75da2ec8c084efdb89b1883e7889f21ad32bc36a81ed13c001bebb72929",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will Dominic Solanke be the top goalscorer in the EPL?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-dominic-solanke-be-the-top-goalscorer-in-the-epl.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d if Dominic Solanke is the top goalscorer for the 2024/2025 English Premier League season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \u201cNo.\u201d\n\nIf multiple players tie for the most goals in the 2024/2025 English Premier League season, the market will resolve based on most assists, then most games played, and finally the player\u2019s last name alphabetically if ties persist.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the English Premier League. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-09-20",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-05-25T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-dominic-solanke-be-the-top-goalscorer-in-the-epl",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0035",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "0x3f816d82200f0198e72df1175e21d9f757e274307a5f93d075e3c14c7f9a4377",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will the Toronto Maple Leafs win the 2025 Stanley Cup?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-toronto-maple-leafs-win-the-2025-stanley-cup.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d if the Toronto Maple Leafs win the 2025 NHL Stanley Cup. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \u201cNo\u201d.\n\nThis market will resolve to \u201cNo\u201d if it becomes impossible for this team to win the 2025 NHL Stanley Cup based off the rules of the NHL.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be information from the NHL.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-10-08",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-06-23T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-toronto-maple-leafs-win-the-2025-stanley-cup",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.065",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "0x324d699420ad881471d0fd29acc86e664e397bd6461b3fa440dcd3efc514ac79",
                "0xab6faa3e66abacc484bbb4bd31ae5e2a56d6f6252b5023631f1bd9e5299fa2f8"
            ],
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "0x324d699420ad881471d0fd29acc86e664e397bd6461b3fa440dcd3efc514ac79",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Putin out as President of Russia in 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/putin-out-as-president-of-russia-in-2025.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Russia's president, Vladimir Putin, is removed from power for any length of time between December 28, 2024, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nPresident Vladimir Putin will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as President of Russia within this market's timeframe.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-12-29",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-12-31T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/putin-out-as-president-of-russia-in-2025",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.085",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "0xab6faa3e66abacc484bbb4bd31ae5e2a56d6f6252b5023631f1bd9e5299fa2f8",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-win-nobel-peace-prize-in-2025.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald Trump wins the 2025 Nobel Peace prize. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf Donald Trump wins the prize along with another person/entity, this market will resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Swedish Academy.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-12-31",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-12-31T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-win-nobel-peace-prize-in-2025",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.145",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "0x677826754ff7328696c121a398fdf495dcd2e04f84ecb6494b85b2883ccaa6ca",
                "0x4833d7259bc503e8d211c477f7d21a00629e926382f920195d697fca38d4ad9b"
            ],
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "0x677826754ff7328696c121a398fdf495dcd2e04f84ecb6494b85b2883ccaa6ca",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-netherlands-win-eurovision-2025.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2025 wins.\n\nIf at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2025 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no winner is announced by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve \"Other\". If two or more countries tie to win Eurovision 2025, this market will resolve to the country which comes first alphabetically.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2025, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-02-03",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-05-17T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-netherlands-win-eurovision-2025",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.02",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "0x4833d7259bc503e8d211c477f7d21a00629e926382f920195d697fca38d4ad9b",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will Latvia win Eurovision 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-latvia-win-eurovision-2025.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2025 wins.\n\nIf at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2025 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no winner is announced by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve \"Other\". If two or more countries tie to win Eurovision 2025, this market will resolve to the country which comes first alphabetically.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2025, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-02-03",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-05-17T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-latvia-win-eurovision-2025",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.005",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "0x63e3c9432d9e3a0e9665d1152fc0a05f6ed17c9033eb9290062d25d2afb2bed5",
                "0x6b38815380c25cd7a3a13ed39fb0ebb24397154f237a2488198c133bed0533c9"
            ],
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "0x63e3c9432d9e3a0e9665d1152fc0a05f6ed17c9033eb9290062d25d2afb2bed5",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-reach-110000-by-december-31-2025.",
                    "background": "This market will immediately resolve to \"Yes\" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) between December 30, 2024, 20:00 and December 31, 2025, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final \"High\" price of $110,000 or higher. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTCUSDT \"High\" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on \"1m\" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar.\n\nPlease note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTCUSDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-12-30",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-12-31T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-reach-110000-by-december-31-2025",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.8245",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "0x6b38815380c25cd7a3a13ed39fb0ebb24397154f237a2488198c133bed0533c9",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "XRP all time high by March 31?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/xrp-all-time-high-by-when-xrp-all-time-high-by-march-31.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any Binance 1 minute candle for XRPUSDT between 21 Jan '24 13:00 and 31 Mar '25 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final \u201cHigh\u201d price that is higher than any previous Binance 1 minute candle's \"High\" price on any prior date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the XRPUSDT \"High\" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/XRP_USDT with \u201c1m\u201d and \u201cCandles\u201d selected on the top bar.\n\nPlease note that this market is about the price according to Binance XRPUSDT, not according to other sources or spot markets.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-01-21",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-06-30T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/xrp-all-time-high-by-when-xrp-all-time-high-by-march-31",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.24",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "0xa57a712aa14e925e0e1615b737549a09b0f09db451910b68af6910b6f8b0494d",
                "0x8309a3b9eb96171c215153b8dccc3bcbcfa84d709f10d9319f5cb8874ff2c728"
            ],
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "0xa57a712aa14e925e0e1615b737549a09b0f09db451910b68af6910b6f8b0494d",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before June?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-migrate-from-sha-256-before-june.",
                    "background": "On December 9, Google introduced Willow, a breakthrough state-of-the-art quantum chip. This achievement fueled speculation that Bitcoin's encryption may be vulnerable to quantum computers in the not-so-distant future (see https://www.cryptoglobe.com/latest/2024/12/does-googles-new-quantum-chip-willow-threaten-bitcoin-the-crypto-community-responds/). \n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Bitcoin stops using SHA-256 by May 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe resolution source will be the Bitcoin blockchain, in addition to a consensus of credible reporting.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-12-14",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-05-31T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-migrate-from-sha-256-before-june",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.025",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "0x8309a3b9eb96171c215153b8dccc3bcbcfa84d709f10d9319f5cb8874ff2c728",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-meta-have-the-top-ai-model-on-december-31.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model owned by Meta has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on December 31, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, \"Google\" would resolve to \"Yes\", and \"xAI\" would resolve to \"No\")\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-12-31",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-12-31T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-meta-have-the-top-ai-model-on-december-31",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.031",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "0x55881f30e5f88d7dece08a4e63daa633a9c1905ff0d454088dc16d19881fe3f8",
                "0xfd1769e0e3f29a593d521c545cbe84b559869b188b0b085fcc33756e4ba0bb0f"
            ],
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "0x55881f30e5f88d7dece08a4e63daa633a9c1905ff0d454088dc16d19881fe3f8",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will Italy win Eurovision 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-italy-win-eurovision-2025.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2025 wins.\n\nIf at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2025 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no winner is announced by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve \"Other\". If two or more countries tie to win Eurovision 2025, this market will resolve to the country which comes first alphabetically.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2025, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-02-03",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-05-17T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-italy-win-eurovision-2025",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0155",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "0xfd1769e0e3f29a593d521c545cbe84b559869b188b0b085fcc33756e4ba0bb0f",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will Malta win Eurovision 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-malta-win-eurovision-2025.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2025 wins.\n\nIf at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2025 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no winner is announced by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve \"Other\". If two or more countries tie to win Eurovision 2025, this market will resolve to the country which comes first alphabetically.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2025, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-02-03",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-05-17T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-malta-win-eurovision-2025",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.035500000000000004",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "0x50b8b0f741566a420756d975faaf4cc4716229cd5183c3a35b3b20ac2b5050ef",
                "0xc85fe2698d8434f9ebd0fa82d75fe2da36edfc81a354b85fef1582d889e5655f"
            ],
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "0x50b8b0f741566a420756d975faaf4cc4716229cd5183c3a35b3b20ac2b5050ef",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will a new country buy Bitcoin in 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-a-new-country-buy-bitcoin-in-2025.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the government of any sovereign UN member state announces between January 1 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET that they bought Bitcoin for the first time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis announcement can pertain to a first purchase of Bitcoin outside of the timeframe of this market (e.g. if a country announces it made its first purchase of Bitcoin prior to this market's timeframe, but the announcement is made within the timeframe, this market will resolve to \"Yes\").\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official announcements from the governments of any purchasing UN member state, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-12-31",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-12-31T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-a-new-country-buy-bitcoin-in-2025",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.705",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "0xc85fe2698d8434f9ebd0fa82d75fe2da36edfc81a354b85fef1582d889e5655f",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by March 31?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-reach-130000-by-march-31.",
                    "background": "This market will immediately resolve to \"Yes\" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) between December 12, 2024, 16:00 and March 31, 2025, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final \"High\" price of $130,000 or higher. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTCUSDT \"High\" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on \"1m\" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar.\n\nPlease note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTCUSDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-12-12",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-03-31T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-reach-130000-by-march-31",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.105",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "0x54377fdef57c1c82b31385a9164e87ff58a92ec6bb64cd55bc6d88a9e2b82fd6",
                "0x4833d7259bc503e8d211c477f7d21a00629e926382f920195d697fca38d4ad9b"
            ],
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "0x54377fdef57c1c82b31385a9164e87ff58a92ec6bb64cd55bc6d88a9e2b82fd6",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-montenegro-win-eurovision-2025.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2025 wins.\n\nIf at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2025 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no winner is announced by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve \"Other\". If two or more countries tie to win Eurovision 2025, this market will resolve to the country which comes first alphabetically.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2025, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-02-03",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-05-17T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-montenegro-win-eurovision-2025",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0035",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "0x4833d7259bc503e8d211c477f7d21a00629e926382f920195d697fca38d4ad9b",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will Latvia win Eurovision 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-latvia-win-eurovision-2025.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2025 wins.\n\nIf at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2025 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no winner is announced by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve \"Other\". If two or more countries tie to win Eurovision 2025, this market will resolve to the country which comes first alphabetically.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2025, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-02-03",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-05-17T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-latvia-win-eurovision-2025",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.005",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "0x4fccc0dcb625ea55ff1ca0409bb44fe1952c04bc16cf5255002ceb2cc3791888",
                "0xae05fb58c41ea3d2a51ac95ca0f5c48824038dc2d1dbf6ac3453ae39a76e71f4"
            ],
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "0x4fccc0dcb625ea55ff1ca0409bb44fe1952c04bc16cf5255002ceb2cc3791888",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will Russia pull out of Syria before April 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-russia-pull-out-of-syria.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Russia withdraws all conventional combat units from Syria by March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. \n\nThis market refers only to conventional Russian military units operating under the Ministry of Defense, such as ground forces, air forces, or naval personnel. The presence of private military contractors (PMCs) such as Wagner Group, military advisors, or special operations forces will not disqualify the market from resolving to \"Yes,\" provided there are no conventional Russian military units actively operating in Syria.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-12-02",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-03-31T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-russia-pull-out-of-syria",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.085",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "0xae05fb58c41ea3d2a51ac95ca0f5c48824038dc2d1dbf6ac3453ae39a76e71f4",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "U.S. forces in Gaza before July?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/us-forces-in-gaza-before-july.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d if active regular US military personnel physically enter Gaza at any point between February 4, 2025, and June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. \n\nUS military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory as occurred during the US\u2019s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify. \n\nUS military personnel entering buffer zones under control of Israel will not qualify.\n\nHigh ranking U.S. service members entering Gaza for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage), military contractors, military advisors, and special operation forces will not qualify. \n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-02-05",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-06-30T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/us-forces-in-gaza-before-july",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.115",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "0xf78b84e417dec6b34f6cbea7002cfb4b16df21aa1cecc8eb701e2e58baf3fcdf",
                "0x267caa12157e2494fa6ef09c62bae0c2966d85a2b84d1e9d3c15e75d973b6a07"
            ],
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "0xf78b84e417dec6b34f6cbea7002cfb4b16df21aa1cecc8eb701e2e58baf3fcdf",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Trump takes Panama Canal in 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/trump-takes-panama-canal-in-2025.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Panama Canal comes under US control by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, US control means the United States assumes primary operational authority over the canal, either via diplomatic agreement, military action, or any other means.\n\nAn official announcement made by the United States and Panama that the Panama Canal will come under US control will qualify, even if the actual transfer of control is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government and the Government of Panama, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Panama Canal has come under US sovereignty will also qualify.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-01-08",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-12-31T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/trump-takes-panama-canal-in-2025",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.145",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "0x267caa12157e2494fa6ef09c62bae0c2966d85a2b84d1e9d3c15e75d973b6a07",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will Frank Baylis be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-frank-baylis-be-the-next-leader-of-the-canadian-liberal-party.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the first leader of The Liberal Party of Canada following Justin Trudeau is Frank Baylis. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n \nThe resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next permanent  leader of The Liberal Party of Canada after Justin Trudeau. Any interim or acting leader of the party will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official information from The Liberal Party of Canada; however, a consensus of credible media sources will also suffice.\n\nIf Justin Trudeau remains the  leader of the The Liberal Party of Canada or the next leader of the The Liberal Party of Canada after Justin Trudeau is not announced by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-01-06",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-12-31T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-frank-baylis-be-the-next-leader-of-the-canadian-liberal-party",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0015",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "0x7c3c06dfd81958876a723f95d518933ed321e96666cd005bff82f5dc18494e32",
                "0x0ee1d66c2dd4f81fb8bb502b3318c6d0790ff887a38e082c393bee415872e1c3"
            ],
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "0x7c3c06dfd81958876a723f95d518933ed321e96666cd005bff82f5dc18494e32",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will Mississippi State win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-mississippi-state-win-the-2025-ncaa-tournament.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2025 NCAA Men\u2019s Basketball Tournament.\n\nIf it is impossible for a team to win the 2025 NCAA Men\u2019s Basketball Tournament according to the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated) , the corresponding market will immediately resolve to \u201cNo\u201d.\n\nIf for any reason no winner is declared by May 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be information from the NCAA.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-01-24",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-04-07T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-mississippi-state-win-the-2025-ncaa-tournament",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.01",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "0x0ee1d66c2dd4f81fb8bb502b3318c6d0790ff887a38e082c393bee415872e1c3",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will Ipswich Town finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-ipswich-town-finish-in-2nd-place-for-the-2024-25-epl-season.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve according to the team that finishes in 2nd place for the 2024-25 English Premier League.\n\nIf it is impossible for a team to finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 English Premier League based on the rules of the EPL (i.e. they are mathematically eliminated from finishing in 2nd place), the corresponding market will immediately resolve to \u201cNo\u201d. Potential retroactive points deductions past these points will have no bearing on this market\u2019s resolution.\n\nIf the season is permanently canceled, or otherwise the standings have not been finalized by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be information from the EPL.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-02-12",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-05-25T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-ipswich-town-finish-in-2nd-place-for-the-2024-25-epl-season",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0015",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "0x267caa12157e2494fa6ef09c62bae0c2966d85a2b84d1e9d3c15e75d973b6a07",
                "0xc0955534ca110306e37acafd184115ec86a0c989bf2ebd937b0f3b34f49e32c8"
            ],
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "0x267caa12157e2494fa6ef09c62bae0c2966d85a2b84d1e9d3c15e75d973b6a07",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will Frank Baylis be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-frank-baylis-be-the-next-leader-of-the-canadian-liberal-party.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the first leader of The Liberal Party of Canada following Justin Trudeau is Frank Baylis. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n \nThe resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next permanent  leader of The Liberal Party of Canada after Justin Trudeau. Any interim or acting leader of the party will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official information from The Liberal Party of Canada; however, a consensus of credible media sources will also suffice.\n\nIf Justin Trudeau remains the  leader of the The Liberal Party of Canada or the next leader of the The Liberal Party of Canada after Justin Trudeau is not announced by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-01-06",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-12-31T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-frank-baylis-be-the-next-leader-of-the-canadian-liberal-party",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0015",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "0xc0955534ca110306e37acafd184115ec86a0c989bf2ebd937b0f3b34f49e32c8",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea in 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/kim-jong-un-out-as-supreme-leader-of-north-korea-in-2025.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Supreme Leader of North Korea Kim Jong Un is removed from power for any length of time between January 28, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nKim Jong Un will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Supreme Leader of North Korea within this market's timeframe.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-01-29",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-12-31T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/kim-jong-un-out-as-supreme-leader-of-north-korea-in-2025",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.085",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "0x4fa70c404d4c33639d5f3883226ccf2392fbcc87bb5e4029f87bacf53d0ae6b7",
                "0x189113c537d5f827fe5ef4805b431bc2d908241b5335032186715a3eb16a8983"
            ],
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "0x4fa70c404d4c33639d5f3883226ccf2392fbcc87bb5e4029f87bacf53d0ae6b7",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will Michigan win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-michigan-win-the-2025-ncaa-tournament.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2025 NCAA Men\u2019s Basketball Tournament.\n\nIf it is impossible for a team to win the 2025 NCAA Men\u2019s Basketball Tournament according to the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated) , the corresponding market will immediately resolve to \u201cNo\u201d.\n\nIf for any reason no winner is declared by May 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be information from the NCAA.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-01-24",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-04-07T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-michigan-win-the-2025-ncaa-tournament",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0175",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "0x189113c537d5f827fe5ef4805b431bc2d908241b5335032186715a3eb16a8983",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will Purdue win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-purdue-win-the-2025-ncaa-tournament.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2025 NCAA Men\u2019s Basketball Tournament.\n\nIf it is impossible for a team to win the 2025 NCAA Men\u2019s Basketball Tournament according to the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated) , the corresponding market will immediately resolve to \u201cNo\u201d.\n\nIf for any reason no winner is declared by May 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be information from the NCAA.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-01-24",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-04-07T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-purdue-win-the-2025-ncaa-tournament",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.022",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "0x4833d7259bc503e8d211c477f7d21a00629e926382f920195d697fca38d4ad9b",
                "0xcecc6b0236a69618a3ca577c54bb92080b0c9f2dc767de37175baa7ffd08e704"
            ],
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "0x4833d7259bc503e8d211c477f7d21a00629e926382f920195d697fca38d4ad9b",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will Latvia win Eurovision 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-latvia-win-eurovision-2025.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2025 wins.\n\nIf at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2025 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no winner is announced by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve \"Other\". If two or more countries tie to win Eurovision 2025, this market will resolve to the country which comes first alphabetically.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2025, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-02-03",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-05-17T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-latvia-win-eurovision-2025",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.005",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "0xcecc6b0236a69618a3ca577c54bb92080b0c9f2dc767de37175baa7ffd08e704",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will Albania win Eurovision 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-albania-win-eurovision-2025.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2025 wins.\n\nIf at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2025 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no winner is announced by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve \"Other\". If two or more countries tie to win Eurovision 2025, this market will resolve to the country which comes first alphabetically.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2025, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-02-03",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-05-17T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-albania-win-eurovision-2025",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0095",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "0xfb6268e2f40d8a59d1320117d20e11ba8547273641205de1ca446f40f90cd913",
                "0x5b38be7d23ad6179dbbc460e4f753760594c3fb64478f2d441776cbcd794db8a"
            ],
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "0xfb6268e2f40d8a59d1320117d20e11ba8547273641205de1ca446f40f90cd913",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will Greece win Eurovision 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-greece-win-eurovision-2025.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2025 wins.\n\nIf at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2025 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no winner is announced by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve \"Other\". If two or more countries tie to win Eurovision 2025, this market will resolve to the country which comes first alphabetically.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2025, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-02-03",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-05-17T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-greece-win-eurovision-2025",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0115",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "0x5b38be7d23ad6179dbbc460e4f753760594c3fb64478f2d441776cbcd794db8a",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will Germany win Eurovision 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-germany-win-eurovision-2025.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2025 wins.\n\nIf at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2025 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no winner is announced by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve \"Other\". If two or more countries tie to win Eurovision 2025, this market will resolve to the country which comes first alphabetically.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2025, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-02-03",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-05-17T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-germany-win-eurovision-2025",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.021500000000000002",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "0xeb681c0ed923daa35ca2af168502b6e8dead38cfbc71505d10cda6653a4a0216",
                "0x6305af093bee55cfc31252a2ee4fac4b5af533b4884fda44978a1dfc8354343b"
            ],
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "0xeb681c0ed923daa35ca2af168502b6e8dead38cfbc71505d10cda6653a4a0216",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will Jerome Powell say \"Good Afternoon\" during the March meeting?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-jerome-powell-say-good-afternoon-during-the-march-meeting1.",
                    "background": "Jerome Powell is currently scheduled to give an FOMC Introductory Statement and press conference on March 19, 2025, at 2:00 PM ET. This market pertains to his Introductory Statement as well as the following Q&A session.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Powell says the listed term during the FOMC Press Conference. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAny usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nPluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.\n\nCompound words will not count.\n\nIf no such statement happens by April, 12, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source will be video and transcripts of the FOMC Press conference.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-01-31",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-03-19T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-jerome-powell-say-good-afternoon-during-the-march-meeting1",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.979",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "0x6305af093bee55cfc31252a2ee4fac4b5af533b4884fda44978a1dfc8354343b",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Doge ETF approved by July 31?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/doge-etf-approved-by-july-31-2025.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any spot Dogecoin ETF receives approval from the SEC by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nApproval under Rule 19-4b will qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution, even if there has not been an S-1 approval. Similarly, an S-1 approval without a 19-4b approval will also qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the SEC, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-11-21",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-07-31T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/doge-etf-approved-by-july-31-2025",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.34500000000000003",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "0x0f8b644e78bbe65c2ab9ff2aa3a9a0df135d76a46438b5584b3fe448d358bd47",
                "0xd40a952afb5e78600bc4e41a1587a1f18fe40c803edc5d4a7d5de76ff8660ec2"
            ],
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "0x0f8b644e78bbe65c2ab9ff2aa3a9a0df135d76a46438b5584b3fe448d358bd47",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-meta-have-the-top-ai-model-on-june-30.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model owned by Meta has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on June 30, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, \"Google\" would resolve to \"Yes\", and \"xAI\" would resolve to \"No\")\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-12-31",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-06-30T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-meta-have-the-top-ai-model-on-june-30",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.02",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "0xd40a952afb5e78600bc4e41a1587a1f18fe40c803edc5d4a7d5de76ff8660ec2",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-anthropic-have-the-top-ai-model-on-june-30.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model owned by Anthropic has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on June 30, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, \"Google\" would resolve to \"Yes\", and \"xAI\" would resolve to \"No\")\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-12-31",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-06-30T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-anthropic-have-the-top-ai-model-on-june-30",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.13",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "0x5dd6d072364a196c2c980b52d9df93599a63ff497619e0b6a028f9ec7d4d3252",
                "0xe87b10afe191706bb36b22526b65983e2a88a12ccce36827e857e16791973493"
            ],
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "0x5dd6d072364a196c2c980b52d9df93599a63ff497619e0b6a028f9ec7d4d3252",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will Denmark win Eurovision 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-denmark-win-eurovision-2025.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2025 wins.\n\nIf at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2025 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no winner is announced by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve \"Other\". If two or more countries tie to win Eurovision 2025, this market will resolve to the country which comes first alphabetically.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2025, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-02-03",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-05-17T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-denmark-win-eurovision-2025",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.008",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "0xe87b10afe191706bb36b22526b65983e2a88a12ccce36827e857e16791973493",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-a-minecraft-movie-be-the-top-grossing-movie-of-2025.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the \"Gross\" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2025/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses shows 'A Minecraft Movie' (2025) as the film with the highest 2025 gross once data for December 31 is made available. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nNote: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2025 - dates outside of 2025 will not count toward this movie's gross.\n\nIn the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner.\n\nIf there is no final data available by January 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-01-02",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-12-31T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-a-minecraft-movie-be-the-top-grossing-movie-of-2025",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.08650000000000001",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "0xe3b31dd451916bf35fb28b6c9e6c1b249dac45ef6c2e02b4ef2faa40308b82df",
                "0xcb1531b00e984865530f13e4ce35bcbc7d71615af98827b5e9aee2ca2984b626"
            ],
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "0xe3b31dd451916bf35fb28b6c9e6c1b249dac45ef6c2e02b4ef2faa40308b82df",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will a nuclear weapon detonate by March 31?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-a-nuclear-weapon-detonate-by-march-31.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a nuclear weapon is detonated anywhere in the world between Dec 1, 2024 and March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market's resolution, any detonation of a nuclear weapon anywhere on the planet Earth will be sufficient to trigger a \"Yes\" resolution. This includes offensive usages, nuclear tests, and accidental detonations.\n\nUse/launch of a nuclear weapon that fails to detonate, a fake weapon that never detonates, or a dirty bomb that distributes radioactive material by means of a conventional explosion are not sufficient to trigger a \"Yes\" resolution of this market. Only a successful nuclear detonation will result in a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nThis market may resolve to \"Yes\" as soon as a nuclear detonation is confirmed by a preponderance of credible reporting.\n\nFor the purpose of this market's resolution, determination as to whether a detonation was nuclear will be made by a preponderance of credible reporting.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-12-02",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-03-31T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-a-nuclear-weapon-detonate-by-march-31",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0105",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "0xcb1531b00e984865530f13e4ce35bcbc7d71615af98827b5e9aee2ca2984b626",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-china-invade-taiwan-in-2025.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nTerritory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-01-29",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-12-31T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-china-invade-taiwan-in-2025",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.125",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "0x961b81e093d72e41855131ee700d7e649a1b627cae26fa1b639897f79b51f62d",
                "0xcb1531b00e984865530f13e4ce35bcbc7d71615af98827b5e9aee2ca2984b626"
            ],
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "0x961b81e093d72e41855131ee700d7e649a1b627cae26fa1b639897f79b51f62d",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "U.S. forces in Gaza before April?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/us-forces-in-gaza-before-april.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d if active regular US military personnel physically enter Gaza at any point between February 4, 2025, and March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. \n\nUS military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory as occurred during the US\u2019s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify. \n\nUS military personnel entering buffer zones under control of Israel will not qualify.\n\nHigh ranking U.S. service members entering Gaza for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage), military contractors, military advisors, and special operation forces will not qualify. \n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-02-05",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-03-31T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/us-forces-in-gaza-before-april",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.027",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "0xcb1531b00e984865530f13e4ce35bcbc7d71615af98827b5e9aee2ca2984b626",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-china-invade-taiwan-in-2025.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nTerritory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-01-29",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-12-31T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-china-invade-taiwan-in-2025",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.125",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "0x4becea47e17b95639cbbdbe31cd968d129823be89249c2b09b911c7333772b57",
                "0x570568964af751a02d31d4d829fed2f7afe8f51fdf592e0338a08cec065f01ea"
            ],
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "0x4becea47e17b95639cbbdbe31cd968d129823be89249c2b09b911c7333772b57",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will xAI have the top AI model on June 30?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-xai-have-the-top-ai-model-on-june-30.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model owned by xAI has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on June 30, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, \"Google\" would resolve to \"Yes\", and \"xAI\" would resolve to \"No\")\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-12-31",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-06-30T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-xai-have-the-top-ai-model-on-june-30",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.28650000000000003",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "0x570568964af751a02d31d4d829fed2f7afe8f51fdf592e0338a08cec065f01ea",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will NASA estimate a 5% chance of asteroid hitting Earth?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-nasa-estimate-a-5-chance-of-asteroid-hitting-earth.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) estimates that the 2024 YR4 asteroid has a 5% or greater chance of hitting Earth at any point by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be information from NASA, specifically the Center for Near Earth Object Studies chart for Impact Risk Data, available here: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/.\n\nLook for \"(2024 YR4)\" under \"Object Designation\", and check the figure under \"Impact Probability (Cumulative)\" to find the information that will be used to resolve this market.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-02-06",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-06-30T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-nasa-estimate-a-5-chance-of-asteroid-hitting-earth",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.08650000000000001",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "0x35aaaa9b77b25834ddf3647bd4c34376ba3f1dcd87e3d4801c829b3658b15b82",
                "0xd40a952afb5e78600bc4e41a1587a1f18fe40c803edc5d4a7d5de76ff8660ec2"
            ],
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "0x35aaaa9b77b25834ddf3647bd4c34376ba3f1dcd87e3d4801c829b3658b15b82",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before July?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/openai-announces-it-has-achieved-agi-before-july.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by June 30, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-12-31",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-06-30T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/openai-announces-it-has-achieved-agi-before-july",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.095",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "0xd40a952afb5e78600bc4e41a1587a1f18fe40c803edc5d4a7d5de76ff8660ec2",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-anthropic-have-the-top-ai-model-on-june-30.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model owned by Anthropic has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on June 30, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, \"Google\" would resolve to \"Yes\", and \"xAI\" would resolve to \"No\")\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-12-31",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-06-30T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-anthropic-have-the-top-ai-model-on-june-30",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.13",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "0x50b8b0f741566a420756d975faaf4cc4716229cd5183c3a35b3b20ac2b5050ef",
                "0x0ac91dc0674ea0b91e6eb9cc4a20968976d30fbce391a9050c70eaddf2fba354"
            ],
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "0x50b8b0f741566a420756d975faaf4cc4716229cd5183c3a35b3b20ac2b5050ef",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will a new country buy Bitcoin in 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-a-new-country-buy-bitcoin-in-2025.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the government of any sovereign UN member state announces between January 1 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET that they bought Bitcoin for the first time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis announcement can pertain to a first purchase of Bitcoin outside of the timeframe of this market (e.g. if a country announces it made its first purchase of Bitcoin prior to this market's timeframe, but the announcement is made within the timeframe, this market will resolve to \"Yes\").\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official announcements from the governments of any purchasing UN member state, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-12-31",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-12-31T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-a-new-country-buy-bitcoin-in-2025",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.705",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "0x0ac91dc0674ea0b91e6eb9cc4a20968976d30fbce391a9050c70eaddf2fba354",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-alphabet-be-the-largest-company-in-the-world-by-market-cap-on-december-31.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Alphabet (GOOG) is the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2025, as of market close. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-12-30",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-12-31T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-alphabet-be-the-largest-company-in-the-world-by-market-cap-on-december-31",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.049",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "0x677826754ff7328696c121a398fdf495dcd2e04f84ecb6494b85b2883ccaa6ca",
                "0xcecc6b0236a69618a3ca577c54bb92080b0c9f2dc767de37175baa7ffd08e704"
            ],
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "0x677826754ff7328696c121a398fdf495dcd2e04f84ecb6494b85b2883ccaa6ca",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-netherlands-win-eurovision-2025.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2025 wins.\n\nIf at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2025 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no winner is announced by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve \"Other\". If two or more countries tie to win Eurovision 2025, this market will resolve to the country which comes first alphabetically.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2025, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-02-03",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-05-17T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-netherlands-win-eurovision-2025",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.02",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "0xcecc6b0236a69618a3ca577c54bb92080b0c9f2dc767de37175baa7ffd08e704",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will Albania win Eurovision 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-albania-win-eurovision-2025.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2025 wins.\n\nIf at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2025 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no winner is announced by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve \"Other\". If two or more countries tie to win Eurovision 2025, this market will resolve to the country which comes first alphabetically.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2025, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-02-03",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-05-17T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-albania-win-eurovision-2025",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0095",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "0x5ce0d897bd66142c43a38204a67ad85bc3e0643382258411a5aa58ca3e825082",
                "0xab6faa3e66abacc484bbb4bd31ae5e2a56d6f6252b5023631f1bd9e5299fa2f8"
            ],
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "0x5ce0d897bd66142c43a38204a67ad85bc3e0643382258411a5aa58ca3e825082",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-karol-nawrocki-be-the-next-president-of-poland.",
                    "background": "Presidential elections will be held in Poland in May, 2025. If no candidate receives a majority in the first round, a second round will be held.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Karol Nawrocki wins this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market will resolve solely based off the first official announcement of the winner of the election from the Polish government, specifically the National Electoral Commission (Pa\u0144stwowa Komisja Wyborcza, PKW) (https://www.pkw.gov.pl/).\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-11-26",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-05-18T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-karol-nawrocki-be-the-next-president-of-poland",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.18",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "0xab6faa3e66abacc484bbb4bd31ae5e2a56d6f6252b5023631f1bd9e5299fa2f8",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-win-nobel-peace-prize-in-2025.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald Trump wins the 2025 Nobel Peace prize. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf Donald Trump wins the prize along with another person/entity, this market will resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Swedish Academy.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-12-31",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-12-31T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-win-nobel-peace-prize-in-2025",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.145",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "0x9fcb9901d142b5046467b4ea329508bdb19274eb1fd0fc833ee1916edd11cb73",
                "0x9d4aa0f7fc078388aa90b44726a7918756dfa3ef3b5d286759bc5677d466aed5"
            ],
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "0x9fcb9901d142b5046467b4ea329508bdb19274eb1fd0fc833ee1916edd11cb73",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Nuclear weapon detonation in 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/nuclear-weapon-detonation-in-2025.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a nuclear weapon is detonated anywhere in the world between January 1  and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market's resolution, any detonation of a nuclear weapon anywhere on the planet Earth or in space will be sufficient to trigger a \"Yes\" resolution. This includes offensive usages, nuclear tests, and accidental detonations.\n\nUse/launch of a nuclear weapon that fails to detonate, a fake weapon that never detonates, or a dirty bomb that distributes radioactive material by means of a conventional explosion are not sufficient to trigger a \"Yes\" resolution of this market. Only a successful nuclear detonation will result in a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nThis market may resolve to \"Yes\" as soon as a nuclear detonation is confirmed by a preponderance of credible reporting.\n\nFor the purpose of this market's resolution, determination as to whether a detonation was nuclear will be made by a preponderance of credible reporting.\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-12-29",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-12-31T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/nuclear-weapon-detonation-in-2025",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.155",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "0x9d4aa0f7fc078388aa90b44726a7918756dfa3ef3b5d286759bc5677d466aed5",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "China x Taiwan military clash by June 30?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/china-x-taiwan-military-clash-by-june-30.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between January 29, and June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA \"military encounter\" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a \"Yes\" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.\n\nNote: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-01-30",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-12-31T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/china-x-taiwan-military-clash-by-june-30",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0505",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "0xf78b84e417dec6b34f6cbea7002cfb4b16df21aa1cecc8eb701e2e58baf3fcdf",
                "0xa9fcdaf248a0560f83cf7c7e75cad23d3151b2169a22f22b316eb822bdc27329"
            ],
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "0xf78b84e417dec6b34f6cbea7002cfb4b16df21aa1cecc8eb701e2e58baf3fcdf",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Trump takes Panama Canal in 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/trump-takes-panama-canal-in-2025.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Panama Canal comes under US control by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, US control means the United States assumes primary operational authority over the canal, either via diplomatic agreement, military action, or any other means.\n\nAn official announcement made by the United States and Panama that the Panama Canal will come under US control will qualify, even if the actual transfer of control is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government and the Government of Panama, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Panama Canal has come under US sovereignty will also qualify.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-01-08",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-12-31T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/trump-takes-panama-canal-in-2025",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.145",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "0xa9fcdaf248a0560f83cf7c7e75cad23d3151b2169a22f22b316eb822bdc27329",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will Anita Anand be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-anita-anand-be-the-next-leader-of-the-canadian-liberal-party.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the first leader of The Liberal Party of Canada following Justin Trudeau is Anita Anand. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next permanent  leader of The Liberal Party of Canada after Justin Trudeau. Any interim or acting leader of the party will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official information from The Liberal Party of Canada; however, a consensus of credible media sources will also suffice.\n\nIf Justin Trudeau remains the  leader of the The Liberal Party of Canada or the next leader of the The Liberal Party of Canada after Justin Trudeau is not announced by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-01-06",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-12-31T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-anita-anand-be-the-next-leader-of-the-canadian-liberal-party",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0015",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "0x4e26e75da2ec8c084efdb89b1883e7889f21ad32bc36a81ed13c001bebb72929",
                "0x189113c537d5f827fe5ef4805b431bc2d908241b5335032186715a3eb16a8983"
            ],
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "0x4e26e75da2ec8c084efdb89b1883e7889f21ad32bc36a81ed13c001bebb72929",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will Dominic Solanke be the top goalscorer in the EPL?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-dominic-solanke-be-the-top-goalscorer-in-the-epl.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d if Dominic Solanke is the top goalscorer for the 2024/2025 English Premier League season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \u201cNo.\u201d\n\nIf multiple players tie for the most goals in the 2024/2025 English Premier League season, the market will resolve based on most assists, then most games played, and finally the player\u2019s last name alphabetically if ties persist.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the English Premier League. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-09-20",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-05-25T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-dominic-solanke-be-the-top-goalscorer-in-the-epl",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0035",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "0x189113c537d5f827fe5ef4805b431bc2d908241b5335032186715a3eb16a8983",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will Purdue win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-purdue-win-the-2025-ncaa-tournament.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2025 NCAA Men\u2019s Basketball Tournament.\n\nIf it is impossible for a team to win the 2025 NCAA Men\u2019s Basketball Tournament according to the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated) , the corresponding market will immediately resolve to \u201cNo\u201d.\n\nIf for any reason no winner is declared by May 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be information from the NCAA.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-01-24",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-04-07T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-purdue-win-the-2025-ncaa-tournament",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.022",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "0x4e26e75da2ec8c084efdb89b1883e7889f21ad32bc36a81ed13c001bebb72929",
                "0x0ee1d66c2dd4f81fb8bb502b3318c6d0790ff887a38e082c393bee415872e1c3"
            ],
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "0x4e26e75da2ec8c084efdb89b1883e7889f21ad32bc36a81ed13c001bebb72929",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will Dominic Solanke be the top goalscorer in the EPL?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-dominic-solanke-be-the-top-goalscorer-in-the-epl.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d if Dominic Solanke is the top goalscorer for the 2024/2025 English Premier League season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \u201cNo.\u201d\n\nIf multiple players tie for the most goals in the 2024/2025 English Premier League season, the market will resolve based on most assists, then most games played, and finally the player\u2019s last name alphabetically if ties persist.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the English Premier League. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-09-20",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-05-25T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-dominic-solanke-be-the-top-goalscorer-in-the-epl",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0035",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "0x0ee1d66c2dd4f81fb8bb502b3318c6d0790ff887a38e082c393bee415872e1c3",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will Ipswich Town finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-ipswich-town-finish-in-2nd-place-for-the-2024-25-epl-season.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve according to the team that finishes in 2nd place for the 2024-25 English Premier League.\n\nIf it is impossible for a team to finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 English Premier League based on the rules of the EPL (i.e. they are mathematically eliminated from finishing in 2nd place), the corresponding market will immediately resolve to \u201cNo\u201d. Potential retroactive points deductions past these points will have no bearing on this market\u2019s resolution.\n\nIf the season is permanently canceled, or otherwise the standings have not been finalized by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be information from the EPL.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-02-12",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-05-25T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-ipswich-town-finish-in-2nd-place-for-the-2024-25-epl-season",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0015",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "0x324d699420ad881471d0fd29acc86e664e397bd6461b3fa440dcd3efc514ac79",
                "0xf78b84e417dec6b34f6cbea7002cfb4b16df21aa1cecc8eb701e2e58baf3fcdf"
            ],
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "0x324d699420ad881471d0fd29acc86e664e397bd6461b3fa440dcd3efc514ac79",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Putin out as President of Russia in 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/putin-out-as-president-of-russia-in-2025.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Russia's president, Vladimir Putin, is removed from power for any length of time between December 28, 2024, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nPresident Vladimir Putin will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as President of Russia within this market's timeframe.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-12-29",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-12-31T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/putin-out-as-president-of-russia-in-2025",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.085",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "0xf78b84e417dec6b34f6cbea7002cfb4b16df21aa1cecc8eb701e2e58baf3fcdf",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Trump takes Panama Canal in 2025?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/trump-takes-panama-canal-in-2025.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Panama Canal comes under US control by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, US control means the United States assumes primary operational authority over the canal, either via diplomatic agreement, military action, or any other means.\n\nAn official announcement made by the United States and Panama that the Panama Canal will come under US control will qualify, even if the actual transfer of control is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government and the Government of Panama, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Panama Canal has come under US sovereignty will also qualify.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-01-08",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-12-31T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/trump-takes-panama-canal-in-2025",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.145",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "0xe3b31dd451916bf35fb28b6c9e6c1b249dac45ef6c2e02b4ef2faa40308b82df",
                "0x9d4aa0f7fc078388aa90b44726a7918756dfa3ef3b5d286759bc5677d466aed5"
            ],
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "0xe3b31dd451916bf35fb28b6c9e6c1b249dac45ef6c2e02b4ef2faa40308b82df",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will a nuclear weapon detonate by March 31?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-a-nuclear-weapon-detonate-by-march-31.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a nuclear weapon is detonated anywhere in the world between Dec 1, 2024 and March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market's resolution, any detonation of a nuclear weapon anywhere on the planet Earth will be sufficient to trigger a \"Yes\" resolution. This includes offensive usages, nuclear tests, and accidental detonations.\n\nUse/launch of a nuclear weapon that fails to detonate, a fake weapon that never detonates, or a dirty bomb that distributes radioactive material by means of a conventional explosion are not sufficient to trigger a \"Yes\" resolution of this market. Only a successful nuclear detonation will result in a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nThis market may resolve to \"Yes\" as soon as a nuclear detonation is confirmed by a preponderance of credible reporting.\n\nFor the purpose of this market's resolution, determination as to whether a detonation was nuclear will be made by a preponderance of credible reporting.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-12-02",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-03-31T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-a-nuclear-weapon-detonate-by-march-31",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0105",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "0x9d4aa0f7fc078388aa90b44726a7918756dfa3ef3b5d286759bc5677d466aed5",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "China x Taiwan military clash by June 30?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/china-x-taiwan-military-clash-by-june-30.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between January 29, and June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA \"military encounter\" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a \"Yes\" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.\n\nNote: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2025-01-30",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-12-31T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/china-x-taiwan-military-clash-by-june-30",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0505",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "0xd76d5172fffaaf2b0d0db29bd944a462654a20a4a327860e4e0438d13b6a4bee",
                "0x3f816d82200f0198e72df1175e21d9f757e274307a5f93d075e3c14c7f9a4377"
            ],
            "source": "polymarket",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "0xd76d5172fffaaf2b0d0db29bd944a462654a20a4a327860e4e0438d13b6a4bee",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-new-york-knicks-win-the-eastern-conference.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d if the New York Knicks win the 2024-2025 NBA Eastern Conference finals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \u201cNo\u201d.\n\nThis market will resolve to \u201cNo\u201d if it becomes impossible for this team to win the 2024-25 NBA Eastern Conference finals based off the rules of the NBA.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be information from the NBA.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-10-04",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-06-05T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-new-york-knicks-win-the-eastern-conference",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.135",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "0x3f816d82200f0198e72df1175e21d9f757e274307a5f93d075e3c14c7f9a4377",
                    "source": "polymarket",
                    "question": "Will the Toronto Maple Leafs win the 2025 Stanley Cup?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the outcome of the question found at https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-toronto-maple-leafs-win-the-2025-stanley-cup.",
                    "background": "This market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d if the Toronto Maple Leafs win the 2025 NHL Stanley Cup. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \u201cNo\u201d.\n\nThis market will resolve to \u201cNo\u201d if it becomes impossible for this team to win the 2025 NHL Stanley Cup based off the rules of the NHL.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be information from the NHL.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "2024-10-08",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "2025-06-23T12:00:00+00:00",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-toronto-maple-leafs-win-the-2025-stanley-cup",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.065",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The market price.",
                    "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": "N/A"
        },
        {
            "id": "c4556210c1c530bd94a602094abc8875e53804b3befd5141a966766774b570eb",
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "Will there be more than ten times as many 'Strategic developments' in Albania for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to one plus the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Strategic developments'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate one plus the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: 1+(1+2)/12=1.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 13 (10 x 1.25) or more 'Strategic developments' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
            "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "1.0833333333333333",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "One plus the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the past 360 days in Albania. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
            "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "9a13e6cd780ae1fbcb151c32b5bd8b74890a3fa5e9dce73a8b196d7ba805e183",
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "Will there be more than ten times as many 'Strategic developments' in Saint Pierre and Miquelon for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to one plus the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Strategic developments'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate one plus the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: 1+(1+2)/12=1.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 13 (10 x 1.25) or more 'Strategic developments' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
            "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "1.0833333333333333",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "One plus the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the past 360 days in Saint Pierre and Miquelon. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
            "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "c0519eef069a9f3181d365e780e41c8269095dace0623cce322651fde8f6c88f",
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "Will there be more 'Explosions/Remote violence' in Antigua and Barbuda for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of 'Explosions/Remote violence' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Explosions/Remote violence'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of 'Explosions/Remote violence' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more 'Explosions/Remote violence' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
            "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of 'Explosions/Remote violence' over the past 360 days in Antigua and Barbuda. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
            "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "147dd89b0b7983e83a136804ca8542fb89839c30ff00b1e2aef91a40969fed11",
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "Will there be more fatalities in Switzerland for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of fatalities over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,fatalities\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of fatalities over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more fatalities would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
            "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of fatalities over the past 360 days in Switzerland. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
            "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "7bfeb70a394235fc918bf2335240307747ede7f90984fe7d285addccc40bed24",
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "Will there be more fatalities in Akrotiri and Dekhelia for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of fatalities over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,fatalities\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of fatalities over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more fatalities would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
            "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of fatalities over the past 360 days in Akrotiri and Dekhelia. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
            "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "6e9bac5f477266f4b6768411cd4ba4d2c9d065b42eeda14eb73ddeca49338e64",
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "Will there be more fatalities in Guam for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of fatalities over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,fatalities\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of fatalities over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more fatalities would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
            "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of fatalities over the past 360 days in Guam. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
            "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "717189ea4297d2bd8c71130f9f4df7f17e710022e01f1af1d6ab7ed0a1af3905",
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "Will there be more 'Protests' in Mauritania for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of 'Protests' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Protests'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of 'Protests' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more 'Protests' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
            "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "20.166666666666668",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of 'Protests' over the past 360 days in Mauritania. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
            "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "9a678195eae4d8f4654163c8c29239d1d605cf4a63f426c75ad2b3953f6bc97b",
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "Will there be more than ten times as many 'Strategic developments' in Laos for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to one plus the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Strategic developments'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate one plus the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: 1+(1+2)/12=1.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 13 (10 x 1.25) or more 'Strategic developments' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
            "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "1",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "One plus the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the past 360 days in Laos. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
            "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "2d174ea076671029f5f979a23e79ea4dfa45348b432508da0815b05578e94f19",
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "Will there be more 'Riots' in Nicaragua for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of 'Riots' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Riots'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of 'Riots' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more 'Riots' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
            "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.08333333333333333",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of 'Riots' over the past 360 days in Nicaragua. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
            "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "ac7b7ca153f613fa81d9c0eff4f0aa25bb62bba04da7610ae4eec7e1586425bb",
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "Will there be more than ten times as many 'Strategic developments' in Wallis and Futuna for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to one plus the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Strategic developments'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate one plus the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: 1+(1+2)/12=1.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 13 (10 x 1.25) or more 'Strategic developments' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
            "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "1.0833333333333333",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "One plus the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the past 360 days in Wallis and Futuna. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
            "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "c2f855cdf819c8583f43bbe6ad849fdfb75532f3f3b120a8b566f35e9ceaebcb",
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "Will there be more 'Strategic developments' in Mexico for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Strategic developments'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more 'Strategic developments' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
            "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "99.91666666666667",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the past 360 days in Mexico. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
            "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "0666e0e9870b24a330020ab0360019637b400f4ccfd948582ac981ce09c5bb3b",
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "Will there be more 'Violence against civilians' in Sweden for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of 'Violence against civilians' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Violence against civilians'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of 'Violence against civilians' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more 'Violence against civilians' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
            "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.3333333333333333",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of 'Violence against civilians' over the past 360 days in Sweden. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
            "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "524d8228bdba3a16a5591f5de0373847d1186c0b789e078d87d8364434dc7e99",
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "Will there be more 'Riots' in Australia for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of 'Riots' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Riots'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of 'Riots' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more 'Riots' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
            "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "1.0",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of 'Riots' over the past 360 days in Australia. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
            "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "dbfa8b923d0016c40e12589fe3def61537569e9f8a098540e27cca33e26a1860",
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "Will there be more than ten times as many 'Protests' in Iran for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to one plus the 30-day average of 'Protests' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Protests'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate one plus the 30-day average of 'Protests' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: 1+(1+2)/12=1.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 13 (10 x 1.25) or more 'Protests' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
            "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "288.8333333333333",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "One plus the 30-day average of 'Protests' over the past 360 days in Iran. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
            "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "8b6e62ac7f89d03b59f15f5dcfa721c9515a9d8f7c50e5529d28eb0f007afae6",
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "Will there be more 'Strategic developments' in Yemen for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Strategic developments'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more 'Strategic developments' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
            "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "51.583333333333336",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the past 360 days in Yemen. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
            "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "5c78934d8767272a2a6576a8cce3d7860ef120ef34db3bb5f7af189bce405315",
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "Will there be more than ten times as many 'Protests' in Tonga for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to one plus the 30-day average of 'Protests' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Protests'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate one plus the 30-day average of 'Protests' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: 1+(1+2)/12=1.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 13 (10 x 1.25) or more 'Protests' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
            "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "1.0833333333333333",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "One plus the 30-day average of 'Protests' over the past 360 days in Tonga. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
            "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "c08b57f404bdbb645efdc7fa09a1bad1130eb88b89d38471e4f8b0ea084d3f9e",
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "Will there be more 'Battles' in Ukraine for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of 'Battles' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Battles'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of 'Battles' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more 'Battles' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
            "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "1489.1666666666667",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of 'Battles' over the past 360 days in Ukraine. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
            "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "7c03640d48debf66a4a4764e82b6b8a2e75000c9f9f7b86f64dc0c264c6bbcc9",
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "Will there be more than ten times as many 'Protests' in Suriname for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to one plus the 30-day average of 'Protests' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Protests'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate one plus the 30-day average of 'Protests' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: 1+(1+2)/12=1.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 13 (10 x 1.25) or more 'Protests' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
            "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "3.25",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "One plus the 30-day average of 'Protests' over the past 360 days in Suriname. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
            "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "10f8102f4bdd0b5db500869814917ff6f93cbd646ee39b75aad04e35c82a9269",
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "Will there be more 'Protests' in Faroe Islands for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of 'Protests' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Protests'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of 'Protests' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more 'Protests' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
            "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.16666666666666666",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of 'Protests' over the past 360 days in Faroe Islands. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
            "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "734e27101e4087730723824d0cdf18b0bca67d89cb6bb9c686117d52b06ac9dc",
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "Will there be more 'Strategic developments' in Caribbean Netherlands for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Strategic developments'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more 'Strategic developments' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
            "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the past 360 days in Caribbean Netherlands. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
            "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "f9a2a27d9881905bd2ae860175c4428a0fddf07fc79c7cca18fe239c4b15b65d",
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "Will there be more 'Battles' in Cuba for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of 'Battles' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Battles'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of 'Battles' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more 'Battles' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
            "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of 'Battles' over the past 360 days in Cuba. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
            "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "eb1f8fe4a204741916dea409f18e806711408b361f96017b9ba617a74e3958c9",
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "Will there be more than ten times as many 'Strategic developments' in Morocco for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to one plus the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Strategic developments'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate one plus the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: 1+(1+2)/12=1.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 13 (10 x 1.25) or more 'Strategic developments' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
            "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "2.916666666666667",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "One plus the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the past 360 days in Morocco. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
            "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "b9644f0584c7a45d3ee725dd4bd74a8cb230e3cda5d83cb294914daf99670587",
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "Will there be more fatalities in Sweden for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of fatalities over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,fatalities\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of fatalities over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more fatalities would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
            "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.08333333333333333",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of fatalities over the past 360 days in Sweden. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
            "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "43f1c15641c235294c3ac293947171fca2cc468d9266f8ea6a3471faae907109",
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "Will there be more 'Protests' in Cameroon for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of 'Protests' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Protests'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of 'Protests' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more 'Protests' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
            "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "4.583333333333333",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of 'Protests' over the past 360 days in Cameroon. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
            "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "a10db9c50d2b3dba376a5acf76c520875d01af6a7a08c265d4c62695eac0a146",
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "Will there be more than ten times as many fatalities in Palau for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to one plus the 30-day average of fatalities over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,fatalities\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate one plus the 30-day average of fatalities over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: 1+(1+2)/12=1.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 13 (10 x 1.25) or more fatalities would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
            "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "1.0",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "One plus the 30-day average of fatalities over the past 360 days in Palau. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
            "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "d3ae7ca5f3d1ec8e76718de9b64cd08b3ceef5d0fa7d65d50028aa99168fce2f",
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "Will there be more fatalities in Angola for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of fatalities over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,fatalities\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of fatalities over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more fatalities would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
            "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "8.083333333333334",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of fatalities over the past 360 days in Angola. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
            "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "50c614c87f469d41a8a4be76d1622cb6b46a491072237947a5264f515c4aeb10",
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "Will there be more than ten times as many 'Violence against civilians' in Iran for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to one plus the 30-day average of 'Violence against civilians' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Violence against civilians'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate one plus the 30-day average of 'Violence against civilians' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: 1+(1+2)/12=1.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 13 (10 x 1.25) or more 'Violence against civilians' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
            "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "3.9166666666666665",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "One plus the 30-day average of 'Violence against civilians' over the past 360 days in Iran. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
            "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "ef975d67bd3d41f2a9babd718e581e073023ec59ed12957d637d723f4dfcd44a",
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "Will there be more fatalities in San Marino for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of fatalities over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,fatalities\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of fatalities over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more fatalities would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
            "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of fatalities over the past 360 days in San Marino. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
            "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "2f97a6b72463ddb3e23653d55c6ba2afcf5e8c6fb4c7c730815e2f6d7bb29173",
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "Will there be more than ten times as many 'Violence against civilians' in Togo for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to one plus the 30-day average of 'Violence against civilians' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Violence against civilians'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate one plus the 30-day average of 'Violence against civilians' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: 1+(1+2)/12=1.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 13 (10 x 1.25) or more 'Violence against civilians' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
            "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "2.0",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "One plus the 30-day average of 'Violence against civilians' over the past 360 days in Togo. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
            "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "0f920e9e2b328ab275f921e8358491ac592627108b56254fc1001ac728ffd829",
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "Will there be more than ten times as many 'Strategic developments' in Vanuatu for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to one plus the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Strategic developments'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate one plus the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: 1+(1+2)/12=1.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 13 (10 x 1.25) or more 'Strategic developments' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
            "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "1.25",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "One plus the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the past 360 days in Vanuatu. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
            "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "be0b0754eb17bbd0bc449c471243d3b24ee4e5f711ed49e01e34c9f5446af77e",
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "Will there be more than ten times as many 'Explosions/Remote violence' in Montenegro for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to one plus the 30-day average of 'Explosions/Remote violence' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Explosions/Remote violence'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate one plus the 30-day average of 'Explosions/Remote violence' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: 1+(1+2)/12=1.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 13 (10 x 1.25) or more 'Explosions/Remote violence' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
            "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "1.0",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "One plus the 30-day average of 'Explosions/Remote violence' over the past 360 days in Montenegro. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
            "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "326e9de32577009f974d5865b247139d08461aa41209775260848be9d64f3048",
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "Will there be more 'Explosions/Remote violence' in Sierra Leone for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of 'Explosions/Remote violence' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Explosions/Remote violence'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of 'Explosions/Remote violence' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more 'Explosions/Remote violence' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
            "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of 'Explosions/Remote violence' over the past 360 days in Sierra Leone. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
            "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "137df0b7a4554647968b599f4ac27ea3fea264e2a454e2eb10f95c49ad25446e",
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "Will there be more than ten times as many 'Riots' in Tajikistan for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to one plus the 30-day average of 'Riots' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Riots'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate one plus the 30-day average of 'Riots' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: 1+(1+2)/12=1.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 13 (10 x 1.25) or more 'Riots' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
            "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "1.0833333333333333",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "One plus the 30-day average of 'Riots' over the past 360 days in Tajikistan. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
            "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "41ef1c3360bafba4b6aecb6cde6870d5f84500f3ad0be39cdd4d40f1f697e724",
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "Will there be more 'Strategic developments' in Iraq for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Strategic developments'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more 'Strategic developments' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
            "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "143.08333333333334",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the past 360 days in Iraq. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
            "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "a65027a87e70449d043d6c03d753009ec11cf4caa1240902918f29e58ea77aee",
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "Will there be more than ten times as many 'Violence against civilians' in Spain for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to one plus the 30-day average of 'Violence against civilians' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Violence against civilians'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate one plus the 30-day average of 'Violence against civilians' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: 1+(1+2)/12=1.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 13 (10 x 1.25) or more 'Violence against civilians' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
            "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "1.1666666666666667",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "One plus the 30-day average of 'Violence against civilians' over the past 360 days in Spain. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
            "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "d84d2563e2124a48eb5ae1315cba00ea80f0220ecce0bf8a3558a77020ce4a50",
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "Will there be more 'Protests' in Russia for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of 'Protests' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Protests'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of 'Protests' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more 'Protests' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
            "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "28.166666666666668",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of 'Protests' over the past 360 days in Russia. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
            "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "3dc58efa4d7bcd5d611bd112e0fc7d204d5b2eadcf653c4ab30fdf41235996ba",
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "Will there be more 'Strategic developments' in Vietnam for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Strategic developments'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more 'Strategic developments' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
            "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the past 360 days in Vietnam. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
            "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "d295dfbd06c894f65bfa757d04df9fb8f124253b4f3f3c6832e0724680a2538b",
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "Will there be more than ten times as many fatalities in Antarctica for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to one plus the 30-day average of fatalities over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,fatalities\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate one plus the 30-day average of fatalities over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: 1+(1+2)/12=1.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 13 (10 x 1.25) or more fatalities would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
            "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "1.0",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "One plus the 30-day average of fatalities over the past 360 days in Antarctica. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
            "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "9ad5b743657885d225f4025fdc949f3837be8f60e2a5f84c4c0cbf33114556fe",
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "Will there be more 'Protests' in Bailiwick of Guernsey for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of 'Protests' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Protests'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of 'Protests' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more 'Protests' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
            "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.08333333333333333",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of 'Protests' over the past 360 days in Bailiwick of Guernsey. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
            "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "2185060ba9b2f58bec2ac6579a8717d4d6dc4203eb6cc916cd17225ce53e665a",
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "Will there be more fatalities in Kenya for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of fatalities over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,fatalities\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of fatalities over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more fatalities would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
            "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "61.916666666666664",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of fatalities over the past 360 days in Kenya. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
            "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "855f638a75fadc667d8b259c646ba42dd7dab74c564d1052ab1788115be5838d",
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "Will there be more than ten times as many 'Battles' in Norway for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to one plus the 30-day average of 'Battles' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Battles'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate one plus the 30-day average of 'Battles' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: 1+(1+2)/12=1.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 13 (10 x 1.25) or more 'Battles' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
            "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "1.0",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "One plus the 30-day average of 'Battles' over the past 360 days in Norway. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
            "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "f2f5a87614d54bbf15bb82e3780b11ecc17b796b5ed59f6203d853f22e1ac02b",
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "Will there be more 'Strategic developments' in Uzbekistan for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Strategic developments'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more 'Strategic developments' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
            "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.25",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the past 360 days in Uzbekistan. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
            "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "240bdbc9f3406309ca238c696fc073cd04be6f9d131dab465f81de93455f6b97",
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "Will there be more than ten times as many 'Protests' in Kiribati for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to one plus the 30-day average of 'Protests' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Protests'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate one plus the 30-day average of 'Protests' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: 1+(1+2)/12=1.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 13 (10 x 1.25) or more 'Protests' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
            "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "1.0",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "One plus the 30-day average of 'Protests' over the past 360 days in Kiribati. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
            "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "c4d1d7b83e216fb15864501e943bf3de27b0cc5f2299517c6e05da3f181669c0",
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "Will there be more 'Riots' in Dominica for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of 'Riots' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Riots'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of 'Riots' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more 'Riots' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
            "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of 'Riots' over the past 360 days in Dominica. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
            "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "b7117581b74f845358760575c9ef5d47d3bdc27b054963ff8c5efcff7f23042b",
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "Will there be more than ten times as many 'Explosions/Remote violence' in Slovakia for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to one plus the 30-day average of 'Explosions/Remote violence' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Explosions/Remote violence'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate one plus the 30-day average of 'Explosions/Remote violence' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: 1+(1+2)/12=1.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 13 (10 x 1.25) or more 'Explosions/Remote violence' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
            "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "1.0",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "One plus the 30-day average of 'Explosions/Remote violence' over the past 360 days in Slovakia. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
            "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "812b5c3b04dd2b850e5629f852618d974c6cada2db57ae9412c4ddd25dac8419",
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "Will there be more 'Explosions/Remote violence' in Georgia for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of 'Explosions/Remote violence' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Explosions/Remote violence'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of 'Explosions/Remote violence' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more 'Explosions/Remote violence' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
            "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of 'Explosions/Remote violence' over the past 360 days in Georgia. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
            "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "26d1840d9d1771bd02ff900e1c3595aa6e0e60b1190179796ce1423dfaecc7b6",
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "Will there be more than ten times as many 'Violence against civilians' in Martinique for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to one plus the 30-day average of 'Violence against civilians' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Violence against civilians'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate one plus the 30-day average of 'Violence against civilians' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: 1+(1+2)/12=1.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 13 (10 x 1.25) or more 'Violence against civilians' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
            "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "1.0",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "One plus the 30-day average of 'Violence against civilians' over the past 360 days in Martinique. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
            "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "3e1289c57ea52f9ce28b72f4249fc56d015cb760c0f4de8122ae96ffe69c4df8",
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "Will there be more fatalities in Fiji for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of fatalities over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,fatalities\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of fatalities over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more fatalities would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
            "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of fatalities over the past 360 days in Fiji. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
            "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "e59eb396ef8d1427e82a4f5c3e9c3079a6f09b4967b70c02635e1541df0f213f",
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "Will there be more than ten times as many 'Riots' in Kosovo for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to one plus the 30-day average of 'Riots' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Riots'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate one plus the 30-day average of 'Riots' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: 1+(1+2)/12=1.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 13 (10 x 1.25) or more 'Riots' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
            "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "1.1666666666666667",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "One plus the 30-day average of 'Riots' over the past 360 days in Kosovo. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
            "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "aec3f78b7bcd5b919dcdd2e7061217a31ec5886e57e8f49e6d64d88d190e7808",
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "Will there be more than ten times as many 'Strategic developments' in Yemen for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to one plus the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Strategic developments'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate one plus the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: 1+(1+2)/12=1.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 13 (10 x 1.25) or more 'Strategic developments' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
            "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "52.583333333333336",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "One plus the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the past 360 days in Yemen. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
            "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "e77cb71ed23241744d20d10a4f8cd3d1d71d74edb41ee8c7512b567890e13e9c",
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "Will there be more 'Battles' in Haiti for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of 'Battles' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Battles'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of 'Battles' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more 'Battles' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
            "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "45.75",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of 'Battles' over the past 360 days in Haiti. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
            "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "8feddb5c9091b11630ebb135ef715546db087ce0a021fcad2dc30f7532c626e4",
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "Will there be more 'Battles' in Bangladesh for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of 'Battles' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Battles'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of 'Battles' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more 'Battles' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
            "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "3.4166666666666665",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of 'Battles' over the past 360 days in Bangladesh. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
            "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "fb7cc1364d0ecc77a915a6e189edd1cd07ca72d2bbfbbf4568e4a0c0f9b33752",
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "Will there be more 'Riots' in Zimbabwe for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of 'Riots' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Riots'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of 'Riots' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more 'Riots' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
            "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "2.6666666666666665",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of 'Riots' over the past 360 days in Zimbabwe. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
            "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "258962b1414442b5405004e2ff205bf89f759724ca079e098be9087efe1a1366",
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "Will there be more fatalities in Kuwait for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of fatalities over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,fatalities\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of fatalities over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more fatalities would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
            "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of fatalities over the past 360 days in Kuwait. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
            "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "14e21caf983148a951015e7cdd31e9fec4060c8ea4604f74e3ce9339f568fb3c",
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "Will there be more than ten times as many 'Protests' in South Sudan for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to one plus the 30-day average of 'Protests' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Protests'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate one plus the 30-day average of 'Protests' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: 1+(1+2)/12=1.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 13 (10 x 1.25) or more 'Protests' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
            "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "4.0",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "One plus the 30-day average of 'Protests' over the past 360 days in South Sudan. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
            "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "a6865d299e7891a26084c8d2327334ddbcd34b8eabf9061c7d2626867948df5c",
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "Will there be more fatalities in Niger for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of fatalities over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,fatalities\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of fatalities over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more fatalities would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
            "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "114.08333333333333",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of fatalities over the past 360 days in Niger. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
            "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "3ea48306007417558e6d9e3082151f0c65eed77eb3dd9621fa2de76cae252eb0",
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "Will there be more fatalities in Micronesia for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of fatalities over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,fatalities\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of fatalities over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more fatalities would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
            "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of fatalities over the past 360 days in Micronesia. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
            "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "f02e779aa62e6d0f50d0121cbdea0ee4e67544d1ccb97e6cfdc3d420c9dda767",
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "Will there be more than ten times as many 'Explosions/Remote violence' in French Guiana for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to one plus the 30-day average of 'Explosions/Remote violence' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Explosions/Remote violence'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate one plus the 30-day average of 'Explosions/Remote violence' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: 1+(1+2)/12=1.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 13 (10 x 1.25) or more 'Explosions/Remote violence' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
            "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "1.0",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "One plus the 30-day average of 'Explosions/Remote violence' over the past 360 days in French Guiana. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
            "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "06fcdbcc3f927d4733c938ca693d8c5efbbdd86136f9510600497df456a77068",
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "Will there be more than ten times as many 'Explosions/Remote violence' in Malaysia for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to one plus the 30-day average of 'Explosions/Remote violence' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Explosions/Remote violence'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate one plus the 30-day average of 'Explosions/Remote violence' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: 1+(1+2)/12=1.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 13 (10 x 1.25) or more 'Explosions/Remote violence' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
            "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "1.0",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "One plus the 30-day average of 'Explosions/Remote violence' over the past 360 days in Malaysia. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
            "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "f6fa28120912083a233d99753e42b613d5652298d5fbb58722ba354fa32a2236",
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "Will there be more than ten times as many 'Battles' in Nauru for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to one plus the 30-day average of 'Battles' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Battles'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate one plus the 30-day average of 'Battles' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: 1+(1+2)/12=1.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 13 (10 x 1.25) or more 'Battles' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
            "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "1",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "One plus the 30-day average of 'Battles' over the past 360 days in Nauru. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
            "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "d31f61bf54fe860a6c9dc94c32d0a5f19b8873a776eeb22593520027d206df16",
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "Will there be more than ten times as many 'Battles' in Chile for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to one plus the 30-day average of 'Battles' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Battles'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate one plus the 30-day average of 'Battles' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: 1+(1+2)/12=1.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 13 (10 x 1.25) or more 'Battles' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
            "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "1.9166666666666665",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "One plus the 30-day average of 'Battles' over the past 360 days in Chile. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
            "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "2b6dfa51c453c3f82d6740304ba6d6c8e967b40107f35257522b245e20bdf6e5",
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "Will there be more fatalities in Reunion for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of fatalities over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,fatalities\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of fatalities over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more fatalities would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
            "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of fatalities over the past 360 days in Reunion. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
            "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "2e152139083c10ed2b508c60781748e8c988994da5d342de00a06b9e897bdc97",
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "Will there be more 'Riots' in Kyrgyzstan for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of 'Riots' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Riots'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of 'Riots' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more 'Riots' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
            "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.75",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of 'Riots' over the past 360 days in Kyrgyzstan. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
            "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "9a13e6cd780ae1fbcb151c32b5bd8b74890a3fa5e9dce73a8b196d7ba805e183",
                "855f638a75fadc667d8b259c646ba42dd7dab74c564d1052ab1788115be5838d"
            ],
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "9a13e6cd780ae1fbcb151c32b5bd8b74890a3fa5e9dce73a8b196d7ba805e183",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more than ten times as many 'Strategic developments' in Saint Pierre and Miquelon for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to one plus the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Strategic developments'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate one plus the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: 1+(1+2)/12=1.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 13 (10 x 1.25) or more 'Strategic developments' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "1.0833333333333333",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "One plus the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the past 360 days in Saint Pierre and Miquelon. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "855f638a75fadc667d8b259c646ba42dd7dab74c564d1052ab1788115be5838d",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more than ten times as many 'Battles' in Norway for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to one plus the 30-day average of 'Battles' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Battles'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate one plus the 30-day average of 'Battles' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: 1+(1+2)/12=1.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 13 (10 x 1.25) or more 'Battles' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "1.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "One plus the 30-day average of 'Battles' over the past 360 days in Norway. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "c0519eef069a9f3181d365e780e41c8269095dace0623cce322651fde8f6c88f",
                "147dd89b0b7983e83a136804ca8542fb89839c30ff00b1e2aef91a40969fed11"
            ],
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "c0519eef069a9f3181d365e780e41c8269095dace0623cce322651fde8f6c88f",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more 'Explosions/Remote violence' in Antigua and Barbuda for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of 'Explosions/Remote violence' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Explosions/Remote violence'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of 'Explosions/Remote violence' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more 'Explosions/Remote violence' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of 'Explosions/Remote violence' over the past 360 days in Antigua and Barbuda. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "147dd89b0b7983e83a136804ca8542fb89839c30ff00b1e2aef91a40969fed11",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more fatalities in Switzerland for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of fatalities over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,fatalities\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of fatalities over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more fatalities would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of fatalities over the past 360 days in Switzerland. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "ef975d67bd3d41f2a9babd718e581e073023ec59ed12957d637d723f4dfcd44a",
                "d84d2563e2124a48eb5ae1315cba00ea80f0220ecce0bf8a3558a77020ce4a50"
            ],
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "ef975d67bd3d41f2a9babd718e581e073023ec59ed12957d637d723f4dfcd44a",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more fatalities in San Marino for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of fatalities over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,fatalities\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of fatalities over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more fatalities would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of fatalities over the past 360 days in San Marino. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "d84d2563e2124a48eb5ae1315cba00ea80f0220ecce0bf8a3558a77020ce4a50",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more 'Protests' in Russia for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of 'Protests' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Protests'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of 'Protests' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more 'Protests' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "28.166666666666668",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of 'Protests' over the past 360 days in Russia. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "9a678195eae4d8f4654163c8c29239d1d605cf4a63f426c75ad2b3953f6bc97b",
                "2e152139083c10ed2b508c60781748e8c988994da5d342de00a06b9e897bdc97"
            ],
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "9a678195eae4d8f4654163c8c29239d1d605cf4a63f426c75ad2b3953f6bc97b",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more than ten times as many 'Strategic developments' in Laos for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to one plus the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Strategic developments'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate one plus the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: 1+(1+2)/12=1.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 13 (10 x 1.25) or more 'Strategic developments' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "1",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "One plus the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the past 360 days in Laos. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "2e152139083c10ed2b508c60781748e8c988994da5d342de00a06b9e897bdc97",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more 'Riots' in Kyrgyzstan for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of 'Riots' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Riots'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of 'Riots' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more 'Riots' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.75",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of 'Riots' over the past 360 days in Kyrgyzstan. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "c2f855cdf819c8583f43bbe6ad849fdfb75532f3f3b120a8b566f35e9ceaebcb",
                "137df0b7a4554647968b599f4ac27ea3fea264e2a454e2eb10f95c49ad25446e"
            ],
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "c2f855cdf819c8583f43bbe6ad849fdfb75532f3f3b120a8b566f35e9ceaebcb",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more 'Strategic developments' in Mexico for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Strategic developments'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more 'Strategic developments' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "99.91666666666667",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the past 360 days in Mexico. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "137df0b7a4554647968b599f4ac27ea3fea264e2a454e2eb10f95c49ad25446e",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more than ten times as many 'Riots' in Tajikistan for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to one plus the 30-day average of 'Riots' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Riots'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate one plus the 30-day average of 'Riots' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: 1+(1+2)/12=1.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 13 (10 x 1.25) or more 'Riots' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "1.0833333333333333",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "One plus the 30-day average of 'Riots' over the past 360 days in Tajikistan. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "d84d2563e2124a48eb5ae1315cba00ea80f0220ecce0bf8a3558a77020ce4a50",
                "06fcdbcc3f927d4733c938ca693d8c5efbbdd86136f9510600497df456a77068"
            ],
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "d84d2563e2124a48eb5ae1315cba00ea80f0220ecce0bf8a3558a77020ce4a50",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more 'Protests' in Russia for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of 'Protests' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Protests'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of 'Protests' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more 'Protests' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "28.166666666666668",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of 'Protests' over the past 360 days in Russia. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "06fcdbcc3f927d4733c938ca693d8c5efbbdd86136f9510600497df456a77068",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more than ten times as many 'Explosions/Remote violence' in Malaysia for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to one plus the 30-day average of 'Explosions/Remote violence' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Explosions/Remote violence'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate one plus the 30-day average of 'Explosions/Remote violence' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: 1+(1+2)/12=1.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 13 (10 x 1.25) or more 'Explosions/Remote violence' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "1.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "One plus the 30-day average of 'Explosions/Remote violence' over the past 360 days in Malaysia. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "8b6e62ac7f89d03b59f15f5dcfa721c9515a9d8f7c50e5529d28eb0f007afae6",
                "14e21caf983148a951015e7cdd31e9fec4060c8ea4604f74e3ce9339f568fb3c"
            ],
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "8b6e62ac7f89d03b59f15f5dcfa721c9515a9d8f7c50e5529d28eb0f007afae6",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more 'Strategic developments' in Yemen for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Strategic developments'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more 'Strategic developments' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "51.583333333333336",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the past 360 days in Yemen. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "14e21caf983148a951015e7cdd31e9fec4060c8ea4604f74e3ce9339f568fb3c",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more than ten times as many 'Protests' in South Sudan for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to one plus the 30-day average of 'Protests' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Protests'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate one plus the 30-day average of 'Protests' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: 1+(1+2)/12=1.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 13 (10 x 1.25) or more 'Protests' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "4.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "One plus the 30-day average of 'Protests' over the past 360 days in South Sudan. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "717189ea4297d2bd8c71130f9f4df7f17e710022e01f1af1d6ab7ed0a1af3905",
                "c4d1d7b83e216fb15864501e943bf3de27b0cc5f2299517c6e05da3f181669c0"
            ],
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "717189ea4297d2bd8c71130f9f4df7f17e710022e01f1af1d6ab7ed0a1af3905",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more 'Protests' in Mauritania for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of 'Protests' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Protests'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of 'Protests' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more 'Protests' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "20.166666666666668",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of 'Protests' over the past 360 days in Mauritania. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "c4d1d7b83e216fb15864501e943bf3de27b0cc5f2299517c6e05da3f181669c0",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more 'Riots' in Dominica for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of 'Riots' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Riots'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of 'Riots' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more 'Riots' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of 'Riots' over the past 360 days in Dominica. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "eb1f8fe4a204741916dea409f18e806711408b361f96017b9ba617a74e3958c9",
                "137df0b7a4554647968b599f4ac27ea3fea264e2a454e2eb10f95c49ad25446e"
            ],
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "eb1f8fe4a204741916dea409f18e806711408b361f96017b9ba617a74e3958c9",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more than ten times as many 'Strategic developments' in Morocco for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to one plus the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Strategic developments'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate one plus the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: 1+(1+2)/12=1.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 13 (10 x 1.25) or more 'Strategic developments' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "2.916666666666667",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "One plus the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the past 360 days in Morocco. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "137df0b7a4554647968b599f4ac27ea3fea264e2a454e2eb10f95c49ad25446e",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more than ten times as many 'Riots' in Tajikistan for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to one plus the 30-day average of 'Riots' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Riots'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate one plus the 30-day average of 'Riots' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: 1+(1+2)/12=1.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 13 (10 x 1.25) or more 'Riots' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "1.0833333333333333",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "One plus the 30-day average of 'Riots' over the past 360 days in Tajikistan. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "137df0b7a4554647968b599f4ac27ea3fea264e2a454e2eb10f95c49ad25446e",
                "c4d1d7b83e216fb15864501e943bf3de27b0cc5f2299517c6e05da3f181669c0"
            ],
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "137df0b7a4554647968b599f4ac27ea3fea264e2a454e2eb10f95c49ad25446e",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more than ten times as many 'Riots' in Tajikistan for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to one plus the 30-day average of 'Riots' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Riots'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate one plus the 30-day average of 'Riots' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: 1+(1+2)/12=1.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 13 (10 x 1.25) or more 'Riots' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "1.0833333333333333",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "One plus the 30-day average of 'Riots' over the past 360 days in Tajikistan. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "c4d1d7b83e216fb15864501e943bf3de27b0cc5f2299517c6e05da3f181669c0",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more 'Riots' in Dominica for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of 'Riots' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Riots'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of 'Riots' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more 'Riots' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of 'Riots' over the past 360 days in Dominica. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "2d174ea076671029f5f979a23e79ea4dfa45348b432508da0815b05578e94f19",
                "2e152139083c10ed2b508c60781748e8c988994da5d342de00a06b9e897bdc97"
            ],
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "2d174ea076671029f5f979a23e79ea4dfa45348b432508da0815b05578e94f19",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more 'Riots' in Nicaragua for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of 'Riots' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Riots'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of 'Riots' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more 'Riots' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.08333333333333333",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of 'Riots' over the past 360 days in Nicaragua. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "2e152139083c10ed2b508c60781748e8c988994da5d342de00a06b9e897bdc97",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more 'Riots' in Kyrgyzstan for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of 'Riots' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Riots'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of 'Riots' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more 'Riots' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.75",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of 'Riots' over the past 360 days in Kyrgyzstan. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "7bfeb70a394235fc918bf2335240307747ede7f90984fe7d285addccc40bed24",
                "d295dfbd06c894f65bfa757d04df9fb8f124253b4f3f3c6832e0724680a2538b"
            ],
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "7bfeb70a394235fc918bf2335240307747ede7f90984fe7d285addccc40bed24",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more fatalities in Akrotiri and Dekhelia for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of fatalities over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,fatalities\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of fatalities over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more fatalities would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of fatalities over the past 360 days in Akrotiri and Dekhelia. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "d295dfbd06c894f65bfa757d04df9fb8f124253b4f3f3c6832e0724680a2538b",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more than ten times as many fatalities in Antarctica for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to one plus the 30-day average of fatalities over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,fatalities\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate one plus the 30-day average of fatalities over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: 1+(1+2)/12=1.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 13 (10 x 1.25) or more fatalities would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "1.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "One plus the 30-day average of fatalities over the past 360 days in Antarctica. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "b9644f0584c7a45d3ee725dd4bd74a8cb230e3cda5d83cb294914daf99670587",
                "e77cb71ed23241744d20d10a4f8cd3d1d71d74edb41ee8c7512b567890e13e9c"
            ],
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "b9644f0584c7a45d3ee725dd4bd74a8cb230e3cda5d83cb294914daf99670587",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more fatalities in Sweden for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of fatalities over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,fatalities\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of fatalities over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more fatalities would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.08333333333333333",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of fatalities over the past 360 days in Sweden. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "e77cb71ed23241744d20d10a4f8cd3d1d71d74edb41ee8c7512b567890e13e9c",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more 'Battles' in Haiti for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of 'Battles' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Battles'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of 'Battles' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more 'Battles' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "45.75",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of 'Battles' over the past 360 days in Haiti. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "14e21caf983148a951015e7cdd31e9fec4060c8ea4604f74e3ce9339f568fb3c",
                "2e152139083c10ed2b508c60781748e8c988994da5d342de00a06b9e897bdc97"
            ],
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "14e21caf983148a951015e7cdd31e9fec4060c8ea4604f74e3ce9339f568fb3c",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more than ten times as many 'Protests' in South Sudan for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to one plus the 30-day average of 'Protests' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Protests'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate one plus the 30-day average of 'Protests' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: 1+(1+2)/12=1.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 13 (10 x 1.25) or more 'Protests' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "4.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "One plus the 30-day average of 'Protests' over the past 360 days in South Sudan. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "2e152139083c10ed2b508c60781748e8c988994da5d342de00a06b9e897bdc97",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more 'Riots' in Kyrgyzstan for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of 'Riots' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Riots'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of 'Riots' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more 'Riots' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.75",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of 'Riots' over the past 360 days in Kyrgyzstan. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "43f1c15641c235294c3ac293947171fca2cc468d9266f8ea6a3471faae907109",
                "a65027a87e70449d043d6c03d753009ec11cf4caa1240902918f29e58ea77aee"
            ],
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "43f1c15641c235294c3ac293947171fca2cc468d9266f8ea6a3471faae907109",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more 'Protests' in Cameroon for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of 'Protests' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Protests'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of 'Protests' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more 'Protests' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "4.583333333333333",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of 'Protests' over the past 360 days in Cameroon. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "a65027a87e70449d043d6c03d753009ec11cf4caa1240902918f29e58ea77aee",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more than ten times as many 'Violence against civilians' in Spain for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to one plus the 30-day average of 'Violence against civilians' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Violence against civilians'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate one plus the 30-day average of 'Violence against civilians' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: 1+(1+2)/12=1.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 13 (10 x 1.25) or more 'Violence against civilians' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "1.1666666666666667",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "One plus the 30-day average of 'Violence against civilians' over the past 360 days in Spain. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "855f638a75fadc667d8b259c646ba42dd7dab74c564d1052ab1788115be5838d",
                "2e152139083c10ed2b508c60781748e8c988994da5d342de00a06b9e897bdc97"
            ],
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "855f638a75fadc667d8b259c646ba42dd7dab74c564d1052ab1788115be5838d",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more than ten times as many 'Battles' in Norway for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to one plus the 30-day average of 'Battles' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Battles'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate one plus the 30-day average of 'Battles' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: 1+(1+2)/12=1.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 13 (10 x 1.25) or more 'Battles' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "1.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "One plus the 30-day average of 'Battles' over the past 360 days in Norway. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "2e152139083c10ed2b508c60781748e8c988994da5d342de00a06b9e897bdc97",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more 'Riots' in Kyrgyzstan for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of 'Riots' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Riots'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of 'Riots' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more 'Riots' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.75",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of 'Riots' over the past 360 days in Kyrgyzstan. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "3e1289c57ea52f9ce28b72f4249fc56d015cb760c0f4de8122ae96ffe69c4df8",
                "8feddb5c9091b11630ebb135ef715546db087ce0a021fcad2dc30f7532c626e4"
            ],
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "3e1289c57ea52f9ce28b72f4249fc56d015cb760c0f4de8122ae96ffe69c4df8",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more fatalities in Fiji for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of fatalities over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,fatalities\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of fatalities over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more fatalities would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of fatalities over the past 360 days in Fiji. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "8feddb5c9091b11630ebb135ef715546db087ce0a021fcad2dc30f7532c626e4",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more 'Battles' in Bangladesh for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of 'Battles' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Battles'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of 'Battles' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more 'Battles' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "3.4166666666666665",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of 'Battles' over the past 360 days in Bangladesh. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "c4556210c1c530bd94a602094abc8875e53804b3befd5141a966766774b570eb",
                "14e21caf983148a951015e7cdd31e9fec4060c8ea4604f74e3ce9339f568fb3c"
            ],
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "c4556210c1c530bd94a602094abc8875e53804b3befd5141a966766774b570eb",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more than ten times as many 'Strategic developments' in Albania for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to one plus the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Strategic developments'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate one plus the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: 1+(1+2)/12=1.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 13 (10 x 1.25) or more 'Strategic developments' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "1.0833333333333333",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "One plus the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the past 360 days in Albania. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "14e21caf983148a951015e7cdd31e9fec4060c8ea4604f74e3ce9339f568fb3c",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more than ten times as many 'Protests' in South Sudan for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to one plus the 30-day average of 'Protests' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Protests'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate one plus the 30-day average of 'Protests' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: 1+(1+2)/12=1.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 13 (10 x 1.25) or more 'Protests' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "4.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "One plus the 30-day average of 'Protests' over the past 360 days in South Sudan. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "c08b57f404bdbb645efdc7fa09a1bad1130eb88b89d38471e4f8b0ea084d3f9e",
                "aec3f78b7bcd5b919dcdd2e7061217a31ec5886e57e8f49e6d64d88d190e7808"
            ],
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "c08b57f404bdbb645efdc7fa09a1bad1130eb88b89d38471e4f8b0ea084d3f9e",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more 'Battles' in Ukraine for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of 'Battles' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Battles'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of 'Battles' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more 'Battles' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "1489.1666666666667",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of 'Battles' over the past 360 days in Ukraine. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "aec3f78b7bcd5b919dcdd2e7061217a31ec5886e57e8f49e6d64d88d190e7808",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more than ten times as many 'Strategic developments' in Yemen for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to one plus the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Strategic developments'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate one plus the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: 1+(1+2)/12=1.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 13 (10 x 1.25) or more 'Strategic developments' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "52.583333333333336",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "One plus the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the past 360 days in Yemen. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "50c614c87f469d41a8a4be76d1622cb6b46a491072237947a5264f515c4aeb10",
                "f6fa28120912083a233d99753e42b613d5652298d5fbb58722ba354fa32a2236"
            ],
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "50c614c87f469d41a8a4be76d1622cb6b46a491072237947a5264f515c4aeb10",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more than ten times as many 'Violence against civilians' in Iran for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to one plus the 30-day average of 'Violence against civilians' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Violence against civilians'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate one plus the 30-day average of 'Violence against civilians' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: 1+(1+2)/12=1.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 13 (10 x 1.25) or more 'Violence against civilians' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "3.9166666666666665",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "One plus the 30-day average of 'Violence against civilians' over the past 360 days in Iran. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "f6fa28120912083a233d99753e42b613d5652298d5fbb58722ba354fa32a2236",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more than ten times as many 'Battles' in Nauru for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to one plus the 30-day average of 'Battles' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Battles'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate one plus the 30-day average of 'Battles' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: 1+(1+2)/12=1.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 13 (10 x 1.25) or more 'Battles' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "1",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "One plus the 30-day average of 'Battles' over the past 360 days in Nauru. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "eb1f8fe4a204741916dea409f18e806711408b361f96017b9ba617a74e3958c9",
                "aec3f78b7bcd5b919dcdd2e7061217a31ec5886e57e8f49e6d64d88d190e7808"
            ],
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "eb1f8fe4a204741916dea409f18e806711408b361f96017b9ba617a74e3958c9",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more than ten times as many 'Strategic developments' in Morocco for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to one plus the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Strategic developments'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate one plus the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: 1+(1+2)/12=1.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 13 (10 x 1.25) or more 'Strategic developments' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "2.916666666666667",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "One plus the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the past 360 days in Morocco. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "aec3f78b7bcd5b919dcdd2e7061217a31ec5886e57e8f49e6d64d88d190e7808",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more than ten times as many 'Strategic developments' in Yemen for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to one plus the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Strategic developments'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate one plus the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: 1+(1+2)/12=1.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 13 (10 x 1.25) or more 'Strategic developments' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "52.583333333333336",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "One plus the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the past 360 days in Yemen. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "2d174ea076671029f5f979a23e79ea4dfa45348b432508da0815b05578e94f19",
                "c4d1d7b83e216fb15864501e943bf3de27b0cc5f2299517c6e05da3f181669c0"
            ],
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "2d174ea076671029f5f979a23e79ea4dfa45348b432508da0815b05578e94f19",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more 'Riots' in Nicaragua for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of 'Riots' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Riots'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of 'Riots' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more 'Riots' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.08333333333333333",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of 'Riots' over the past 360 days in Nicaragua. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "c4d1d7b83e216fb15864501e943bf3de27b0cc5f2299517c6e05da3f181669c0",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more 'Riots' in Dominica for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of 'Riots' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Riots'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of 'Riots' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more 'Riots' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of 'Riots' over the past 360 days in Dominica. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "5c78934d8767272a2a6576a8cce3d7860ef120ef34db3bb5f7af189bce405315",
                "2f97a6b72463ddb3e23653d55c6ba2afcf5e8c6fb4c7c730815e2f6d7bb29173"
            ],
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "5c78934d8767272a2a6576a8cce3d7860ef120ef34db3bb5f7af189bce405315",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more than ten times as many 'Protests' in Tonga for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to one plus the 30-day average of 'Protests' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Protests'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate one plus the 30-day average of 'Protests' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: 1+(1+2)/12=1.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 13 (10 x 1.25) or more 'Protests' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "1.0833333333333333",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "One plus the 30-day average of 'Protests' over the past 360 days in Tonga. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "2f97a6b72463ddb3e23653d55c6ba2afcf5e8c6fb4c7c730815e2f6d7bb29173",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more than ten times as many 'Violence against civilians' in Togo for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to one plus the 30-day average of 'Violence against civilians' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Violence against civilians'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate one plus the 30-day average of 'Violence against civilians' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: 1+(1+2)/12=1.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 13 (10 x 1.25) or more 'Violence against civilians' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "2.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "One plus the 30-day average of 'Violence against civilians' over the past 360 days in Togo. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "a10db9c50d2b3dba376a5acf76c520875d01af6a7a08c265d4c62695eac0a146",
                "258962b1414442b5405004e2ff205bf89f759724ca079e098be9087efe1a1366"
            ],
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "a10db9c50d2b3dba376a5acf76c520875d01af6a7a08c265d4c62695eac0a146",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more than ten times as many fatalities in Palau for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to one plus the 30-day average of fatalities over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,fatalities\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate one plus the 30-day average of fatalities over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: 1+(1+2)/12=1.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 13 (10 x 1.25) or more fatalities would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "1.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "One plus the 30-day average of fatalities over the past 360 days in Palau. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "258962b1414442b5405004e2ff205bf89f759724ca079e098be9087efe1a1366",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more fatalities in Kuwait for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of fatalities over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,fatalities\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of fatalities over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more fatalities would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of fatalities over the past 360 days in Kuwait. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "d295dfbd06c894f65bfa757d04df9fb8f124253b4f3f3c6832e0724680a2538b",
                "9ad5b743657885d225f4025fdc949f3837be8f60e2a5f84c4c0cbf33114556fe"
            ],
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "d295dfbd06c894f65bfa757d04df9fb8f124253b4f3f3c6832e0724680a2538b",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more than ten times as many fatalities in Antarctica for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to one plus the 30-day average of fatalities over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,fatalities\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate one plus the 30-day average of fatalities over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: 1+(1+2)/12=1.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 13 (10 x 1.25) or more fatalities would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "1.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "One plus the 30-day average of fatalities over the past 360 days in Antarctica. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "9ad5b743657885d225f4025fdc949f3837be8f60e2a5f84c4c0cbf33114556fe",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more 'Protests' in Bailiwick of Guernsey for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of 'Protests' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Protests'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of 'Protests' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more 'Protests' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.08333333333333333",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of 'Protests' over the past 360 days in Bailiwick of Guernsey. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "f9a2a27d9881905bd2ae860175c4428a0fddf07fc79c7cca18fe239c4b15b65d",
                "258962b1414442b5405004e2ff205bf89f759724ca079e098be9087efe1a1366"
            ],
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "f9a2a27d9881905bd2ae860175c4428a0fddf07fc79c7cca18fe239c4b15b65d",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more 'Battles' in Cuba for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of 'Battles' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Battles'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of 'Battles' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more 'Battles' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of 'Battles' over the past 360 days in Cuba. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "258962b1414442b5405004e2ff205bf89f759724ca079e098be9087efe1a1366",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more fatalities in Kuwait for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of fatalities over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,fatalities\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of fatalities over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more fatalities would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of fatalities over the past 360 days in Kuwait. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "3dc58efa4d7bcd5d611bd112e0fc7d204d5b2eadcf653c4ab30fdf41235996ba",
                "d295dfbd06c894f65bfa757d04df9fb8f124253b4f3f3c6832e0724680a2538b"
            ],
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "3dc58efa4d7bcd5d611bd112e0fc7d204d5b2eadcf653c4ab30fdf41235996ba",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more 'Strategic developments' in Vietnam for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Strategic developments'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more 'Strategic developments' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the past 360 days in Vietnam. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "d295dfbd06c894f65bfa757d04df9fb8f124253b4f3f3c6832e0724680a2538b",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more than ten times as many fatalities in Antarctica for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to one plus the 30-day average of fatalities over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,fatalities\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate one plus the 30-day average of fatalities over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: 1+(1+2)/12=1.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 13 (10 x 1.25) or more fatalities would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "1.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "One plus the 30-day average of fatalities over the past 360 days in Antarctica. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "aec3f78b7bcd5b919dcdd2e7061217a31ec5886e57e8f49e6d64d88d190e7808",
                "8feddb5c9091b11630ebb135ef715546db087ce0a021fcad2dc30f7532c626e4"
            ],
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "aec3f78b7bcd5b919dcdd2e7061217a31ec5886e57e8f49e6d64d88d190e7808",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more than ten times as many 'Strategic developments' in Yemen for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to one plus the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Strategic developments'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate one plus the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: 1+(1+2)/12=1.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 13 (10 x 1.25) or more 'Strategic developments' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "52.583333333333336",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "One plus the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the past 360 days in Yemen. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "8feddb5c9091b11630ebb135ef715546db087ce0a021fcad2dc30f7532c626e4",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more 'Battles' in Bangladesh for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of 'Battles' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Battles'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of 'Battles' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more 'Battles' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "3.4166666666666665",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of 'Battles' over the past 360 days in Bangladesh. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "2f97a6b72463ddb3e23653d55c6ba2afcf5e8c6fb4c7c730815e2f6d7bb29173",
                "326e9de32577009f974d5865b247139d08461aa41209775260848be9d64f3048"
            ],
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "2f97a6b72463ddb3e23653d55c6ba2afcf5e8c6fb4c7c730815e2f6d7bb29173",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more than ten times as many 'Violence against civilians' in Togo for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to one plus the 30-day average of 'Violence against civilians' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Violence against civilians'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate one plus the 30-day average of 'Violence against civilians' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: 1+(1+2)/12=1.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 13 (10 x 1.25) or more 'Violence against civilians' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "2.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "One plus the 30-day average of 'Violence against civilians' over the past 360 days in Togo. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "326e9de32577009f974d5865b247139d08461aa41209775260848be9d64f3048",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more 'Explosions/Remote violence' in Sierra Leone for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of 'Explosions/Remote violence' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Explosions/Remote violence'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of 'Explosions/Remote violence' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more 'Explosions/Remote violence' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of 'Explosions/Remote violence' over the past 360 days in Sierra Leone. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "c08b57f404bdbb645efdc7fa09a1bad1130eb88b89d38471e4f8b0ea084d3f9e",
                "d84d2563e2124a48eb5ae1315cba00ea80f0220ecce0bf8a3558a77020ce4a50"
            ],
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "c08b57f404bdbb645efdc7fa09a1bad1130eb88b89d38471e4f8b0ea084d3f9e",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more 'Battles' in Ukraine for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of 'Battles' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Battles'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of 'Battles' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more 'Battles' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "1489.1666666666667",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of 'Battles' over the past 360 days in Ukraine. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "d84d2563e2124a48eb5ae1315cba00ea80f0220ecce0bf8a3558a77020ce4a50",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more 'Protests' in Russia for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of 'Protests' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Protests'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of 'Protests' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more 'Protests' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "28.166666666666668",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of 'Protests' over the past 360 days in Russia. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "8b6e62ac7f89d03b59f15f5dcfa721c9515a9d8f7c50e5529d28eb0f007afae6",
                "2185060ba9b2f58bec2ac6579a8717d4d6dc4203eb6cc916cd17225ce53e665a"
            ],
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "8b6e62ac7f89d03b59f15f5dcfa721c9515a9d8f7c50e5529d28eb0f007afae6",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more 'Strategic developments' in Yemen for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Strategic developments'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more 'Strategic developments' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "51.583333333333336",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the past 360 days in Yemen. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "2185060ba9b2f58bec2ac6579a8717d4d6dc4203eb6cc916cd17225ce53e665a",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more fatalities in Kenya for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of fatalities over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,fatalities\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of fatalities over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more fatalities would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "61.916666666666664",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of fatalities over the past 360 days in Kenya. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "43f1c15641c235294c3ac293947171fca2cc468d9266f8ea6a3471faae907109",
                "d84d2563e2124a48eb5ae1315cba00ea80f0220ecce0bf8a3558a77020ce4a50"
            ],
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "43f1c15641c235294c3ac293947171fca2cc468d9266f8ea6a3471faae907109",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more 'Protests' in Cameroon for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of 'Protests' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Protests'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of 'Protests' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more 'Protests' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "4.583333333333333",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of 'Protests' over the past 360 days in Cameroon. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "d84d2563e2124a48eb5ae1315cba00ea80f0220ecce0bf8a3558a77020ce4a50",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more 'Protests' in Russia for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of 'Protests' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Protests'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of 'Protests' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more 'Protests' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "28.166666666666668",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of 'Protests' over the past 360 days in Russia. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "c4556210c1c530bd94a602094abc8875e53804b3befd5141a966766774b570eb",
                "2e152139083c10ed2b508c60781748e8c988994da5d342de00a06b9e897bdc97"
            ],
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "c4556210c1c530bd94a602094abc8875e53804b3befd5141a966766774b570eb",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more than ten times as many 'Strategic developments' in Albania for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to one plus the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Strategic developments'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate one plus the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: 1+(1+2)/12=1.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 13 (10 x 1.25) or more 'Strategic developments' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "1.0833333333333333",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "One plus the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the past 360 days in Albania. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "2e152139083c10ed2b508c60781748e8c988994da5d342de00a06b9e897bdc97",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more 'Riots' in Kyrgyzstan for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of 'Riots' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Riots'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of 'Riots' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more 'Riots' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.75",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of 'Riots' over the past 360 days in Kyrgyzstan. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "7bfeb70a394235fc918bf2335240307747ede7f90984fe7d285addccc40bed24",
                "d3ae7ca5f3d1ec8e76718de9b64cd08b3ceef5d0fa7d65d50028aa99168fce2f"
            ],
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "7bfeb70a394235fc918bf2335240307747ede7f90984fe7d285addccc40bed24",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more fatalities in Akrotiri and Dekhelia for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of fatalities over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,fatalities\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of fatalities over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more fatalities would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of fatalities over the past 360 days in Akrotiri and Dekhelia. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "d3ae7ca5f3d1ec8e76718de9b64cd08b3ceef5d0fa7d65d50028aa99168fce2f",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more fatalities in Angola for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of fatalities over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,fatalities\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of fatalities over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more fatalities would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "8.083333333333334",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of fatalities over the past 360 days in Angola. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "d295dfbd06c894f65bfa757d04df9fb8f124253b4f3f3c6832e0724680a2538b",
                "2e152139083c10ed2b508c60781748e8c988994da5d342de00a06b9e897bdc97"
            ],
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "d295dfbd06c894f65bfa757d04df9fb8f124253b4f3f3c6832e0724680a2538b",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more than ten times as many fatalities in Antarctica for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to one plus the 30-day average of fatalities over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,fatalities\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate one plus the 30-day average of fatalities over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: 1+(1+2)/12=1.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 13 (10 x 1.25) or more fatalities would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "1.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "One plus the 30-day average of fatalities over the past 360 days in Antarctica. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "2e152139083c10ed2b508c60781748e8c988994da5d342de00a06b9e897bdc97",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more 'Riots' in Kyrgyzstan for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of 'Riots' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Riots'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of 'Riots' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more 'Riots' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.75",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of 'Riots' over the past 360 days in Kyrgyzstan. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "9a13e6cd780ae1fbcb151c32b5bd8b74890a3fa5e9dce73a8b196d7ba805e183",
                "41ef1c3360bafba4b6aecb6cde6870d5f84500f3ad0be39cdd4d40f1f697e724"
            ],
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "9a13e6cd780ae1fbcb151c32b5bd8b74890a3fa5e9dce73a8b196d7ba805e183",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more than ten times as many 'Strategic developments' in Saint Pierre and Miquelon for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to one plus the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Strategic developments'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate one plus the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: 1+(1+2)/12=1.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 13 (10 x 1.25) or more 'Strategic developments' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "1.0833333333333333",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "One plus the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the past 360 days in Saint Pierre and Miquelon. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "41ef1c3360bafba4b6aecb6cde6870d5f84500f3ad0be39cdd4d40f1f697e724",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more 'Strategic developments' in Iraq for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Strategic developments'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more 'Strategic developments' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "143.08333333333334",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the past 360 days in Iraq. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "812b5c3b04dd2b850e5629f852618d974c6cada2db57ae9412c4ddd25dac8419",
                "3e1289c57ea52f9ce28b72f4249fc56d015cb760c0f4de8122ae96ffe69c4df8"
            ],
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "812b5c3b04dd2b850e5629f852618d974c6cada2db57ae9412c4ddd25dac8419",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more 'Explosions/Remote violence' in Georgia for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of 'Explosions/Remote violence' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Explosions/Remote violence'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of 'Explosions/Remote violence' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more 'Explosions/Remote violence' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of 'Explosions/Remote violence' over the past 360 days in Georgia. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "3e1289c57ea52f9ce28b72f4249fc56d015cb760c0f4de8122ae96ffe69c4df8",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more fatalities in Fiji for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of fatalities over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,fatalities\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of fatalities over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more fatalities would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of fatalities over the past 360 days in Fiji. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "eb1f8fe4a204741916dea409f18e806711408b361f96017b9ba617a74e3958c9",
                "855f638a75fadc667d8b259c646ba42dd7dab74c564d1052ab1788115be5838d"
            ],
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "eb1f8fe4a204741916dea409f18e806711408b361f96017b9ba617a74e3958c9",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more than ten times as many 'Strategic developments' in Morocco for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to one plus the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Strategic developments'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate one plus the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: 1+(1+2)/12=1.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 13 (10 x 1.25) or more 'Strategic developments' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "2.916666666666667",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "One plus the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the past 360 days in Morocco. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "855f638a75fadc667d8b259c646ba42dd7dab74c564d1052ab1788115be5838d",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more than ten times as many 'Battles' in Norway for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to one plus the 30-day average of 'Battles' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Battles'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate one plus the 30-day average of 'Battles' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: 1+(1+2)/12=1.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 13 (10 x 1.25) or more 'Battles' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "1.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "One plus the 30-day average of 'Battles' over the past 360 days in Norway. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "2f97a6b72463ddb3e23653d55c6ba2afcf5e8c6fb4c7c730815e2f6d7bb29173",
                "26d1840d9d1771bd02ff900e1c3595aa6e0e60b1190179796ce1423dfaecc7b6"
            ],
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "2f97a6b72463ddb3e23653d55c6ba2afcf5e8c6fb4c7c730815e2f6d7bb29173",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more than ten times as many 'Violence against civilians' in Togo for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to one plus the 30-day average of 'Violence against civilians' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Violence against civilians'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate one plus the 30-day average of 'Violence against civilians' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: 1+(1+2)/12=1.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 13 (10 x 1.25) or more 'Violence against civilians' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "2.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "One plus the 30-day average of 'Violence against civilians' over the past 360 days in Togo. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "26d1840d9d1771bd02ff900e1c3595aa6e0e60b1190179796ce1423dfaecc7b6",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more than ten times as many 'Violence against civilians' in Martinique for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to one plus the 30-day average of 'Violence against civilians' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Violence against civilians'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate one plus the 30-day average of 'Violence against civilians' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: 1+(1+2)/12=1.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 13 (10 x 1.25) or more 'Violence against civilians' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "1.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "One plus the 30-day average of 'Violence against civilians' over the past 360 days in Martinique. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "2d174ea076671029f5f979a23e79ea4dfa45348b432508da0815b05578e94f19",
                "ac7b7ca153f613fa81d9c0eff4f0aa25bb62bba04da7610ae4eec7e1586425bb"
            ],
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "2d174ea076671029f5f979a23e79ea4dfa45348b432508da0815b05578e94f19",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more 'Riots' in Nicaragua for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of 'Riots' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Riots'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of 'Riots' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more 'Riots' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.08333333333333333",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of 'Riots' over the past 360 days in Nicaragua. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "ac7b7ca153f613fa81d9c0eff4f0aa25bb62bba04da7610ae4eec7e1586425bb",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more than ten times as many 'Strategic developments' in Wallis and Futuna for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to one plus the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Strategic developments'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate one plus the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: 1+(1+2)/12=1.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 13 (10 x 1.25) or more 'Strategic developments' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "1.0833333333333333",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "One plus the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the past 360 days in Wallis and Futuna. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "6e9bac5f477266f4b6768411cd4ba4d2c9d065b42eeda14eb73ddeca49338e64",
                "f9a2a27d9881905bd2ae860175c4428a0fddf07fc79c7cca18fe239c4b15b65d"
            ],
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "6e9bac5f477266f4b6768411cd4ba4d2c9d065b42eeda14eb73ddeca49338e64",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more fatalities in Guam for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of fatalities over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,fatalities\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of fatalities over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more fatalities would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of fatalities over the past 360 days in Guam. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "f9a2a27d9881905bd2ae860175c4428a0fddf07fc79c7cca18fe239c4b15b65d",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more 'Battles' in Cuba for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of 'Battles' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Battles'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of 'Battles' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more 'Battles' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of 'Battles' over the past 360 days in Cuba. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "147dd89b0b7983e83a136804ca8542fb89839c30ff00b1e2aef91a40969fed11",
                "2e152139083c10ed2b508c60781748e8c988994da5d342de00a06b9e897bdc97"
            ],
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "147dd89b0b7983e83a136804ca8542fb89839c30ff00b1e2aef91a40969fed11",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more fatalities in Switzerland for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of fatalities over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,fatalities\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of fatalities over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more fatalities would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of fatalities over the past 360 days in Switzerland. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "2e152139083c10ed2b508c60781748e8c988994da5d342de00a06b9e897bdc97",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more 'Riots' in Kyrgyzstan for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of 'Riots' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Riots'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of 'Riots' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more 'Riots' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.75",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of 'Riots' over the past 360 days in Kyrgyzstan. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "26d1840d9d1771bd02ff900e1c3595aa6e0e60b1190179796ce1423dfaecc7b6",
                "8feddb5c9091b11630ebb135ef715546db087ce0a021fcad2dc30f7532c626e4"
            ],
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "26d1840d9d1771bd02ff900e1c3595aa6e0e60b1190179796ce1423dfaecc7b6",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more than ten times as many 'Violence against civilians' in Martinique for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to one plus the 30-day average of 'Violence against civilians' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Violence against civilians'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate one plus the 30-day average of 'Violence against civilians' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: 1+(1+2)/12=1.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 13 (10 x 1.25) or more 'Violence against civilians' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "1.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "One plus the 30-day average of 'Violence against civilians' over the past 360 days in Martinique. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "8feddb5c9091b11630ebb135ef715546db087ce0a021fcad2dc30f7532c626e4",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more 'Battles' in Bangladesh for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of 'Battles' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Battles'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of 'Battles' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more 'Battles' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "3.4166666666666665",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of 'Battles' over the past 360 days in Bangladesh. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "a65027a87e70449d043d6c03d753009ec11cf4caa1240902918f29e58ea77aee",
                "3e1289c57ea52f9ce28b72f4249fc56d015cb760c0f4de8122ae96ffe69c4df8"
            ],
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "a65027a87e70449d043d6c03d753009ec11cf4caa1240902918f29e58ea77aee",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more than ten times as many 'Violence against civilians' in Spain for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to one plus the 30-day average of 'Violence against civilians' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Violence against civilians'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate one plus the 30-day average of 'Violence against civilians' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: 1+(1+2)/12=1.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 13 (10 x 1.25) or more 'Violence against civilians' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "1.1666666666666667",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "One plus the 30-day average of 'Violence against civilians' over the past 360 days in Spain. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "3e1289c57ea52f9ce28b72f4249fc56d015cb760c0f4de8122ae96ffe69c4df8",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more fatalities in Fiji for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of fatalities over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,fatalities\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of fatalities over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more fatalities would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of fatalities over the past 360 days in Fiji. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "c4556210c1c530bd94a602094abc8875e53804b3befd5141a966766774b570eb",
                "0666e0e9870b24a330020ab0360019637b400f4ccfd948582ac981ce09c5bb3b"
            ],
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "c4556210c1c530bd94a602094abc8875e53804b3befd5141a966766774b570eb",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more than ten times as many 'Strategic developments' in Albania for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to one plus the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Strategic developments'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate one plus the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: 1+(1+2)/12=1.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 13 (10 x 1.25) or more 'Strategic developments' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "1.0833333333333333",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "One plus the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the past 360 days in Albania. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "0666e0e9870b24a330020ab0360019637b400f4ccfd948582ac981ce09c5bb3b",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more 'Violence against civilians' in Sweden for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of 'Violence against civilians' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Violence against civilians'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of 'Violence against civilians' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more 'Violence against civilians' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.3333333333333333",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of 'Violence against civilians' over the past 360 days in Sweden. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "2d174ea076671029f5f979a23e79ea4dfa45348b432508da0815b05578e94f19",
                "a10db9c50d2b3dba376a5acf76c520875d01af6a7a08c265d4c62695eac0a146"
            ],
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "2d174ea076671029f5f979a23e79ea4dfa45348b432508da0815b05578e94f19",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more 'Riots' in Nicaragua for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of 'Riots' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Riots'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of 'Riots' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more 'Riots' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.08333333333333333",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of 'Riots' over the past 360 days in Nicaragua. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "a10db9c50d2b3dba376a5acf76c520875d01af6a7a08c265d4c62695eac0a146",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more than ten times as many fatalities in Palau for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to one plus the 30-day average of fatalities over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,fatalities\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate one plus the 30-day average of fatalities over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: 1+(1+2)/12=1.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 13 (10 x 1.25) or more fatalities would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "1.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "One plus the 30-day average of fatalities over the past 360 days in Palau. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "c2f855cdf819c8583f43bbe6ad849fdfb75532f3f3b120a8b566f35e9ceaebcb",
                "258962b1414442b5405004e2ff205bf89f759724ca079e098be9087efe1a1366"
            ],
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "c2f855cdf819c8583f43bbe6ad849fdfb75532f3f3b120a8b566f35e9ceaebcb",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more 'Strategic developments' in Mexico for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Strategic developments'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more 'Strategic developments' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "99.91666666666667",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the past 360 days in Mexico. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "258962b1414442b5405004e2ff205bf89f759724ca079e098be9087efe1a1366",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more fatalities in Kuwait for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of fatalities over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,fatalities\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of fatalities over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more fatalities would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of fatalities over the past 360 days in Kuwait. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "f9a2a27d9881905bd2ae860175c4428a0fddf07fc79c7cca18fe239c4b15b65d",
                "a6865d299e7891a26084c8d2327334ddbcd34b8eabf9061c7d2626867948df5c"
            ],
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "f9a2a27d9881905bd2ae860175c4428a0fddf07fc79c7cca18fe239c4b15b65d",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more 'Battles' in Cuba for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of 'Battles' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Battles'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of 'Battles' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more 'Battles' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of 'Battles' over the past 360 days in Cuba. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "a6865d299e7891a26084c8d2327334ddbcd34b8eabf9061c7d2626867948df5c",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more fatalities in Niger for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of fatalities over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,fatalities\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of fatalities over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more fatalities would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "114.08333333333333",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of fatalities over the past 360 days in Niger. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "2d174ea076671029f5f979a23e79ea4dfa45348b432508da0815b05578e94f19",
                "0666e0e9870b24a330020ab0360019637b400f4ccfd948582ac981ce09c5bb3b"
            ],
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "2d174ea076671029f5f979a23e79ea4dfa45348b432508da0815b05578e94f19",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more 'Riots' in Nicaragua for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of 'Riots' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Riots'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of 'Riots' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more 'Riots' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.08333333333333333",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of 'Riots' over the past 360 days in Nicaragua. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "0666e0e9870b24a330020ab0360019637b400f4ccfd948582ac981ce09c5bb3b",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more 'Violence against civilians' in Sweden for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of 'Violence against civilians' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Violence against civilians'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of 'Violence against civilians' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more 'Violence against civilians' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.3333333333333333",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of 'Violence against civilians' over the past 360 days in Sweden. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "d84d2563e2124a48eb5ae1315cba00ea80f0220ecce0bf8a3558a77020ce4a50",
                "2185060ba9b2f58bec2ac6579a8717d4d6dc4203eb6cc916cd17225ce53e665a"
            ],
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "d84d2563e2124a48eb5ae1315cba00ea80f0220ecce0bf8a3558a77020ce4a50",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more 'Protests' in Russia for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of 'Protests' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Protests'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of 'Protests' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more 'Protests' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "28.166666666666668",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of 'Protests' over the past 360 days in Russia. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "2185060ba9b2f58bec2ac6579a8717d4d6dc4203eb6cc916cd17225ce53e665a",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more fatalities in Kenya for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of fatalities over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,fatalities\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of fatalities over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more fatalities would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "61.916666666666664",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of fatalities over the past 360 days in Kenya. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "41ef1c3360bafba4b6aecb6cde6870d5f84500f3ad0be39cdd4d40f1f697e724",
                "d295dfbd06c894f65bfa757d04df9fb8f124253b4f3f3c6832e0724680a2538b"
            ],
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "41ef1c3360bafba4b6aecb6cde6870d5f84500f3ad0be39cdd4d40f1f697e724",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more 'Strategic developments' in Iraq for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Strategic developments'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more 'Strategic developments' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "143.08333333333334",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the past 360 days in Iraq. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "d295dfbd06c894f65bfa757d04df9fb8f124253b4f3f3c6832e0724680a2538b",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more than ten times as many fatalities in Antarctica for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to one plus the 30-day average of fatalities over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,fatalities\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate one plus the 30-day average of fatalities over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: 1+(1+2)/12=1.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 13 (10 x 1.25) or more fatalities would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "1.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "One plus the 30-day average of fatalities over the past 360 days in Antarctica. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "c4556210c1c530bd94a602094abc8875e53804b3befd5141a966766774b570eb",
                "9a678195eae4d8f4654163c8c29239d1d605cf4a63f426c75ad2b3953f6bc97b"
            ],
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "c4556210c1c530bd94a602094abc8875e53804b3befd5141a966766774b570eb",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more than ten times as many 'Strategic developments' in Albania for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to one plus the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Strategic developments'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate one plus the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: 1+(1+2)/12=1.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 13 (10 x 1.25) or more 'Strategic developments' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "1.0833333333333333",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "One plus the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the past 360 days in Albania. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "9a678195eae4d8f4654163c8c29239d1d605cf4a63f426c75ad2b3953f6bc97b",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more than ten times as many 'Strategic developments' in Laos for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to one plus the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Strategic developments'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate one plus the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: 1+(1+2)/12=1.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 13 (10 x 1.25) or more 'Strategic developments' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "1",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "One plus the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the past 360 days in Laos. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "f9a2a27d9881905bd2ae860175c4428a0fddf07fc79c7cca18fe239c4b15b65d",
                "9ad5b743657885d225f4025fdc949f3837be8f60e2a5f84c4c0cbf33114556fe"
            ],
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "f9a2a27d9881905bd2ae860175c4428a0fddf07fc79c7cca18fe239c4b15b65d",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more 'Battles' in Cuba for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of 'Battles' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Battles'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of 'Battles' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more 'Battles' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of 'Battles' over the past 360 days in Cuba. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "9ad5b743657885d225f4025fdc949f3837be8f60e2a5f84c4c0cbf33114556fe",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more 'Protests' in Bailiwick of Guernsey for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of 'Protests' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Protests'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of 'Protests' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more 'Protests' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.08333333333333333",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of 'Protests' over the past 360 days in Bailiwick of Guernsey. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "10f8102f4bdd0b5db500869814917ff6f93cbd646ee39b75aad04e35c82a9269",
                "0f920e9e2b328ab275f921e8358491ac592627108b56254fc1001ac728ffd829"
            ],
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "10f8102f4bdd0b5db500869814917ff6f93cbd646ee39b75aad04e35c82a9269",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more 'Protests' in Faroe Islands for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of 'Protests' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Protests'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of 'Protests' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more 'Protests' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.16666666666666666",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of 'Protests' over the past 360 days in Faroe Islands. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "0f920e9e2b328ab275f921e8358491ac592627108b56254fc1001ac728ffd829",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more than ten times as many 'Strategic developments' in Vanuatu for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to one plus the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Strategic developments'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate one plus the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: 1+(1+2)/12=1.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 13 (10 x 1.25) or more 'Strategic developments' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "1.25",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "One plus the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the past 360 days in Vanuatu. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "9a13e6cd780ae1fbcb151c32b5bd8b74890a3fa5e9dce73a8b196d7ba805e183",
                "3dc58efa4d7bcd5d611bd112e0fc7d204d5b2eadcf653c4ab30fdf41235996ba"
            ],
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "9a13e6cd780ae1fbcb151c32b5bd8b74890a3fa5e9dce73a8b196d7ba805e183",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more than ten times as many 'Strategic developments' in Saint Pierre and Miquelon for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to one plus the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Strategic developments'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate one plus the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: 1+(1+2)/12=1.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 13 (10 x 1.25) or more 'Strategic developments' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "1.0833333333333333",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "One plus the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the past 360 days in Saint Pierre and Miquelon. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "3dc58efa4d7bcd5d611bd112e0fc7d204d5b2eadcf653c4ab30fdf41235996ba",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more 'Strategic developments' in Vietnam for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Strategic developments'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more 'Strategic developments' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the past 360 days in Vietnam. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "7bfeb70a394235fc918bf2335240307747ede7f90984fe7d285addccc40bed24",
                "f2f5a87614d54bbf15bb82e3780b11ecc17b796b5ed59f6203d853f22e1ac02b"
            ],
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "7bfeb70a394235fc918bf2335240307747ede7f90984fe7d285addccc40bed24",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more fatalities in Akrotiri and Dekhelia for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of fatalities over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,fatalities\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of fatalities over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more fatalities would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of fatalities over the past 360 days in Akrotiri and Dekhelia. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "f2f5a87614d54bbf15bb82e3780b11ecc17b796b5ed59f6203d853f22e1ac02b",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more 'Strategic developments' in Uzbekistan for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Strategic developments'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more 'Strategic developments' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.25",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the past 360 days in Uzbekistan. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "6e9bac5f477266f4b6768411cd4ba4d2c9d065b42eeda14eb73ddeca49338e64",
                "ac7b7ca153f613fa81d9c0eff4f0aa25bb62bba04da7610ae4eec7e1586425bb"
            ],
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "6e9bac5f477266f4b6768411cd4ba4d2c9d065b42eeda14eb73ddeca49338e64",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more fatalities in Guam for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of fatalities over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,fatalities\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of fatalities over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more fatalities would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of fatalities over the past 360 days in Guam. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "ac7b7ca153f613fa81d9c0eff4f0aa25bb62bba04da7610ae4eec7e1586425bb",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more than ten times as many 'Strategic developments' in Wallis and Futuna for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to one plus the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Strategic developments'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate one plus the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: 1+(1+2)/12=1.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 13 (10 x 1.25) or more 'Strategic developments' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "1.0833333333333333",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "One plus the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the past 360 days in Wallis and Futuna. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "5c78934d8767272a2a6576a8cce3d7860ef120ef34db3bb5f7af189bce405315",
                "240bdbc9f3406309ca238c696fc073cd04be6f9d131dab465f81de93455f6b97"
            ],
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "5c78934d8767272a2a6576a8cce3d7860ef120ef34db3bb5f7af189bce405315",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more than ten times as many 'Protests' in Tonga for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to one plus the 30-day average of 'Protests' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Protests'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate one plus the 30-day average of 'Protests' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: 1+(1+2)/12=1.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 13 (10 x 1.25) or more 'Protests' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "1.0833333333333333",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "One plus the 30-day average of 'Protests' over the past 360 days in Tonga. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "240bdbc9f3406309ca238c696fc073cd04be6f9d131dab465f81de93455f6b97",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more than ten times as many 'Protests' in Kiribati for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to one plus the 30-day average of 'Protests' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Protests'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate one plus the 30-day average of 'Protests' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: 1+(1+2)/12=1.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 13 (10 x 1.25) or more 'Protests' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "1.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "One plus the 30-day average of 'Protests' over the past 360 days in Kiribati. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "8feddb5c9091b11630ebb135ef715546db087ce0a021fcad2dc30f7532c626e4",
                "2e152139083c10ed2b508c60781748e8c988994da5d342de00a06b9e897bdc97"
            ],
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "8feddb5c9091b11630ebb135ef715546db087ce0a021fcad2dc30f7532c626e4",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more 'Battles' in Bangladesh for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of 'Battles' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Battles'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of 'Battles' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more 'Battles' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "3.4166666666666665",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of 'Battles' over the past 360 days in Bangladesh. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "2e152139083c10ed2b508c60781748e8c988994da5d342de00a06b9e897bdc97",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more 'Riots' in Kyrgyzstan for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of 'Riots' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Riots'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of 'Riots' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more 'Riots' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.75",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of 'Riots' over the past 360 days in Kyrgyzstan. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "2f97a6b72463ddb3e23653d55c6ba2afcf5e8c6fb4c7c730815e2f6d7bb29173",
                "d84d2563e2124a48eb5ae1315cba00ea80f0220ecce0bf8a3558a77020ce4a50"
            ],
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "2f97a6b72463ddb3e23653d55c6ba2afcf5e8c6fb4c7c730815e2f6d7bb29173",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more than ten times as many 'Violence against civilians' in Togo for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to one plus the 30-day average of 'Violence against civilians' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Violence against civilians'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate one plus the 30-day average of 'Violence against civilians' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: 1+(1+2)/12=1.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 13 (10 x 1.25) or more 'Violence against civilians' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "2.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "One plus the 30-day average of 'Violence against civilians' over the past 360 days in Togo. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "d84d2563e2124a48eb5ae1315cba00ea80f0220ecce0bf8a3558a77020ce4a50",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more 'Protests' in Russia for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of 'Protests' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Protests'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of 'Protests' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more 'Protests' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "28.166666666666668",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of 'Protests' over the past 360 days in Russia. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "a10db9c50d2b3dba376a5acf76c520875d01af6a7a08c265d4c62695eac0a146",
                "2b6dfa51c453c3f82d6740304ba6d6c8e967b40107f35257522b245e20bdf6e5"
            ],
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "a10db9c50d2b3dba376a5acf76c520875d01af6a7a08c265d4c62695eac0a146",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more than ten times as many fatalities in Palau for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to one plus the 30-day average of fatalities over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,fatalities\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate one plus the 30-day average of fatalities over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: 1+(1+2)/12=1.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 13 (10 x 1.25) or more fatalities would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "1.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "One plus the 30-day average of fatalities over the past 360 days in Palau. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "2b6dfa51c453c3f82d6740304ba6d6c8e967b40107f35257522b245e20bdf6e5",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more fatalities in Reunion for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of fatalities over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,fatalities\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of fatalities over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more fatalities would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of fatalities over the past 360 days in Reunion. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "a65027a87e70449d043d6c03d753009ec11cf4caa1240902918f29e58ea77aee",
                "812b5c3b04dd2b850e5629f852618d974c6cada2db57ae9412c4ddd25dac8419"
            ],
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "a65027a87e70449d043d6c03d753009ec11cf4caa1240902918f29e58ea77aee",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more than ten times as many 'Violence against civilians' in Spain for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to one plus the 30-day average of 'Violence against civilians' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Violence against civilians'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate one plus the 30-day average of 'Violence against civilians' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: 1+(1+2)/12=1.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 13 (10 x 1.25) or more 'Violence against civilians' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "1.1666666666666667",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "One plus the 30-day average of 'Violence against civilians' over the past 360 days in Spain. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "812b5c3b04dd2b850e5629f852618d974c6cada2db57ae9412c4ddd25dac8419",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more 'Explosions/Remote violence' in Georgia for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to the 30-day average of 'Explosions/Remote violence' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Explosions/Remote violence'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate the 30-day average of 'Explosions/Remote violence' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: (1+2)/12=0.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 1 or more 'Explosions/Remote violence' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The 30-day average of 'Explosions/Remote violence' over the past 360 days in Georgia. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "9a13e6cd780ae1fbcb151c32b5bd8b74890a3fa5e9dce73a8b196d7ba805e183",
                "0f920e9e2b328ab275f921e8358491ac592627108b56254fc1001ac728ffd829"
            ],
            "source": "acled",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "9a13e6cd780ae1fbcb151c32b5bd8b74890a3fa5e9dce73a8b196d7ba805e183",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more than ten times as many 'Strategic developments' in Saint Pierre and Miquelon for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to one plus the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Strategic developments'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate one plus the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: 1+(1+2)/12=1.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 13 (10 x 1.25) or more 'Strategic developments' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "1.0833333333333333",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "One plus the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the past 360 days in Saint Pierre and Miquelon. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "0f920e9e2b328ab275f921e8358491ac592627108b56254fc1001ac728ffd829",
                    "source": "acled",
                    "question": "Will there be more than ten times as many 'Strategic developments' in Vanuatu for the 30 days before {resolution_date} compared to one plus the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the 360 days preceding {forecast_due_date}?\n\ne.g. If the forecast due date is 2024-01-01 and we have the following data:\nDate,'Strategic developments'\n2023-11-11,1\n2023-10-10,2\nto calculate one plus the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the preceding 360 days, we\u2019d have: 1+(1+2)/12=1.25.\n\nIn this example, for the question to resolve positively, 13 (10 x 1.25) or more 'Strategic developments' would need to occur in the 30 days leading up to the resolution.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from the ACLED dataset once the data is published.",
                    "background": "\nACLED classifies events into six distinct categories:\n\n1. Battles: violent interactions between two organized armed groups at a particular time and\n   location;\n2. Protests: in-person public demonstrations of three or more participants in which the participants\n   do not engage in violence, though violence may be used against them;\n3. Riots: violent events where demonstrators or mobs of three or more engage in violent or\n   destructive acts, including but not limited to physical fights, rock throwing, property\n   destruction, etc.;\n4. Explosions/Remote violence: incidents in which one side uses weapon types that, by their nature,\n   are at range and widely destructive;\n5. Violence against civilians: violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon\n   unarmed non-combatants; and\n6. Strategic developments: contextually important information regarding incidents and activities of\n   groups that are not recorded as any of the other event types, yet may trigger future events or\n   contribute to political dynamics within and across states.\n\nDetailed information about the categories can be found at:\nhttps://acleddata.com/knowledge-base/codebook/#acled-events\n",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://acleddata.com/",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "1.25",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "One plus the 30-day average of 'Strategic developments' over the past 360 days in Vanuatu. This reference value will potentially change as ACLED updates its dataset.",
                    "source_intro": "The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D",
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Gourdon will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D once the data is published.",
            "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - GOURDON - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "9.213",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Gourdon.",
            "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D",
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Alen\u00e7on will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D once the data is published.",
            "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - ALENCON - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "4.263",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Alen\u00e7on.",
            "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D",
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Tarbes\u2013Lourdes\u2013Pyr\u00e9n\u00e9es Airport will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D once the data is published.",
            "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - TARBES-OSSUN - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "8.438",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Tarbes\u2013Lourdes\u2013Pyr\u00e9n\u00e9es Airport.",
            "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D",
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Ajaccio will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D once the data is published.",
            "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - AJACCIO - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "10.913",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Ajaccio.",
            "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D",
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Abbeville will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D once the data is published.",
            "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - ABBEVILLE - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "1.538",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Abbeville.",
            "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D",
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Poitiers\u2013Biard Airport will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D once the data is published.",
            "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - POITIERS-BIARD - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "6.25",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Poitiers\u2013Biard Airport.",
            "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D",
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Mont-de-Marsan will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D once the data is published.",
            "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - MONT-DE-MARSAN - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "10.55",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Mont-de-Marsan.",
            "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D",
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at EuroAirport Basel Mulhouse Freiburg will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D once the data is published.",
            "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - BALE-MULHOUSE - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "1.5750000000000002",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at EuroAirport Basel Mulhouse Freiburg.",
            "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D",
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Clermont-Ferrand Auvergne Airport will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D once the data is published.",
            "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - CLERMONT-FD - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "6.2",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Clermont-Ferrand Auvergne Airport.",
            "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D",
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Saint Barth\u00e9lemy will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D once the data is published.",
            "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - ST-BARTHELEMY METEO - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "31.15",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Saint Barth\u00e9lemy.",
            "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D",
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Embrun will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D once the data is published.",
            "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - EMBRUN - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "4.65",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Embrun.",
            "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D",
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Saint-Pierre will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D once the data is published.",
            "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - ST-PIERRE - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "-4.087",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Saint-Pierre.",
            "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D",
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Marignane will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D once the data is published.",
            "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - MARIGNANE - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "9.7",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Marignane.",
            "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D",
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Martinique Aim\u00e9 C\u00e9saire International Airport will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D once the data is published.",
            "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - LAMENTIN-AERO - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "25.35",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Martinique Aim\u00e9 C\u00e9saire International Airport.",
            "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D",
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at \u00cele de la Possession will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D once the data is published.",
            "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - CROZET - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "8.375",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at \u00cele de la Possession.",
            "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D",
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Pointe-\u00e0-Pitre International Airport will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D once the data is published.",
            "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - LE RAIZET AERO - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "26.35",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Pointe-\u00e0-Pitre International Airport.",
            "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D",
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Perpignan will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D once the data is published.",
            "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - PERPIGNAN - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "11.65",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Perpignan.",
            "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D",
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Grande Terre will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D once the data is published.",
            "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - KERGUELEN - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "8.125",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Grande Terre.",
            "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D",
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Brest Bretagne Airport will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D once the data is published.",
            "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - BREST-GUIPAVAS - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "9.863",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Brest Bretagne Airport.",
            "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D",
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Bourges will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D once the data is published.",
            "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - BOURGES - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "5.75",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Bourges.",
            "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D",
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Lyon\u2013Saint Exup\u00e9ry Airport will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D once the data is published.",
            "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - LYON-ST EXUPERY - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "4.088",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Lyon\u2013Saint Exup\u00e9ry Airport.",
            "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D",
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Dijon-Bourgogne Airport will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D once the data is published.",
            "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - DIJON-LONGVIC - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "2.038",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Dijon-Bourgogne Airport.",
            "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D",
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Nancy \u2013 Ochey Air Base will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D once the data is published.",
            "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - NANCY-OCHEY - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "-0.687",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Nancy \u2013 Ochey Air Base.",
            "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D",
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Mont\u00e9limar will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D once the data is published.",
            "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - MONTELIMAR - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "6.663",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Mont\u00e9limar.",
            "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D",
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Reims \u2013 Prunay Aerodrome will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D once the data is published.",
            "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - REIMS-PRUNAY - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.025",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Reims \u2013 Prunay Aerodrome.",
            "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D",
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Roland Garros Airport will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D once the data is published.",
            "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - GILLOT-AEROPORT - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "27.663",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Roland Garros Airport.",
            "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D",
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Pointe De La Hague will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D once the data is published.",
            "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - PTE DE LA HAGUE - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "5.263",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Pointe De La Hague.",
            "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D",
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Pamandzi will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D once the data is published.",
            "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - PAMANDZI - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "28.725",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Pamandzi.",
            "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D",
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Strasbourg Airport will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D once the data is published.",
            "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - STRASBOURG-ENTZHEIM - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.425",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Strasbourg Airport.",
            "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D",
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Lille Airport will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D once the data is published.",
            "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - LILLE-LESQUIN - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.75",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Lille Airport.",
            "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D",
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Toulouse\u2013Blagnac Airport will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D once the data is published.",
            "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - TOULOUSE-BLAGNAC - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "10.463",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Toulouse\u2013Blagnac Airport.",
            "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D",
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Rennes\u2013Saint-Jacques Airport will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D once the data is published.",
            "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - RENNES-ST JACQUES - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "6.388",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Rennes\u2013Saint-Jacques Airport.",
            "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D",
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Ploumanac'h will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D once the data is published.",
            "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - PLOUMANAC'H - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "8.488",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Ploumanac'h.",
            "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D",
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Le Puy \u2013 Loudes Airport will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D once the data is published.",
            "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - LE PUY-LOUDES - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "4.088",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Le Puy \u2013 Loudes Airport.",
            "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D",
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Nice will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D once the data is published.",
            "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - NICE - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "10.663",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Nice.",
            "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D",
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Amsterdam Island will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D once the data is published.",
            "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - NOUVELLE AMSTERDAM - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "18.575",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Amsterdam Island.",
            "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D",
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Juan de Nova Island will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D once the data is published.",
            "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - JUAN DE NOVA - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "30.738",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Juan de Nova Island.",
            "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D",
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Bordeaux\u2013M\u00e9rignac Airport will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D once the data is published.",
            "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - BORDEAUX-MERIGNAC - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "10.95",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Bordeaux\u2013M\u00e9rignac Airport.",
            "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D",
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Orly will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D once the data is published.",
            "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - ORLY - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "3.4",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Orly.",
            "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D",
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Rouen Airport will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D once the data is published.",
            "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - ROUEN-BOOS - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "2.15",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Rouen Airport.",
            "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D",
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Cayenne \u2013 F\u00e9lix \u00c9bou\u00e9 Airport will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D once the data is published.",
            "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - CAYENNE-MATOURY - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "26.288",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Cayenne \u2013 F\u00e9lix \u00c9bou\u00e9 Airport.",
            "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D",
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Tours will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D once the data is published.",
            "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - TOURS - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "5.413",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Tours.",
            "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D",
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Limoges \u2013 Bellegarde Airport will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D once the data is published.",
            "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - LIMOGES-BELLEGARDE - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "9.288",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Limoges \u2013 Bellegarde Airport.",
            "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D",
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Tromelin Island will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D once the data is published.",
            "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - TROMELIN - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "30.775",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Tromelin Island.",
            "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D",
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at La D\u00e9sirade will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D once the data is published.",
            "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - LA DESIRADE METEO - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "26.85",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at La D\u00e9sirade.",
            "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D",
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Millau will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D once the data is published.",
            "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - MILLAU - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "5.763",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Millau.",
            "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D",
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Saint-Girons will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D once the data is published.",
            "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - ST GIRONS - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "9.863",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Saint-Girons.",
            "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D",
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Saint-Laurent will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D once the data is published.",
            "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - SAINT LAURENT - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "25.225",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Saint-Laurent.",
            "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D",
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Troyes-Barberey Airport will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D once the data is published.",
            "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - TROYES-BARBEREY - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "1.65",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Troyes-Barberey Airport.",
            "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D",
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Caen \u2013 Carpiquet Airport will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D once the data is published.",
            "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - CAEN-CARPIQUET - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "4.3",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Caen \u2013 Carpiquet Airport.",
            "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D",
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Europa Island will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D once the data is published.",
            "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - EUROPA - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "28.925",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Europa Island.",
            "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D",
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Nantes Atlantique Airport will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D once the data is published.",
            "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - NANTES-BOUGUENAIS - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "7.425",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Nantes Atlantique Airport.",
            "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D",
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D"
            ],
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Cayenne \u2013 F\u00e9lix \u00c9bou\u00e9 Airport will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - CAYENNE-MATOURY - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "26.288",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Cayenne \u2013 F\u00e9lix \u00c9bou\u00e9 Airport.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Saint-Girons will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - ST GIRONS - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "9.863",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Saint-Girons.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D",
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D"
            ],
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Saint-Pierre will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - ST-PIERRE - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "-4.087",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Saint-Pierre.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Mont\u00e9limar will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - MONTELIMAR - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "6.663",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Mont\u00e9limar.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D",
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D"
            ],
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Mont-de-Marsan will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - MONT-DE-MARSAN - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "10.55",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Mont-de-Marsan.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Roland Garros Airport will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - GILLOT-AEROPORT - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "27.663",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Roland Garros Airport.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D",
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D"
            ],
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Millau will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - MILLAU - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "5.763",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Millau.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Saint-Girons will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - ST GIRONS - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "9.863",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Saint-Girons.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D",
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D"
            ],
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Tours will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - TOURS - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "5.413",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Tours.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Saint-Girons will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - ST GIRONS - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "9.863",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Saint-Girons.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D",
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D"
            ],
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Martinique Aim\u00e9 C\u00e9saire International Airport will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - LAMENTIN-AERO - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "25.35",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Martinique Aim\u00e9 C\u00e9saire International Airport.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Lyon\u2013Saint Exup\u00e9ry Airport will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - LYON-ST EXUPERY - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "4.088",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Lyon\u2013Saint Exup\u00e9ry Airport.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D",
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D"
            ],
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Marignane will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - MARIGNANE - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "9.7",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Marignane.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Nantes Atlantique Airport will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - NANTES-BOUGUENAIS - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "7.425",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Nantes Atlantique Airport.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D",
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D"
            ],
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Dijon-Bourgogne Airport will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - DIJON-LONGVIC - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "2.038",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Dijon-Bourgogne Airport.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Orly will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - ORLY - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "3.4",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Orly.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D",
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D"
            ],
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Lille Airport will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - LILLE-LESQUIN - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.75",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Lille Airport.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Limoges \u2013 Bellegarde Airport will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - LIMOGES-BELLEGARDE - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "9.288",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Limoges \u2013 Bellegarde Airport.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D",
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D"
            ],
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Grande Terre will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - KERGUELEN - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "8.125",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Grande Terre.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Bourges will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - BOURGES - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "5.75",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Bourges.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D",
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D"
            ],
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Clermont-Ferrand Auvergne Airport will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - CLERMONT-FD - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "6.2",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Clermont-Ferrand Auvergne Airport.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Orly will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - ORLY - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "3.4",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Orly.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D",
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D"
            ],
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Tarbes\u2013Lourdes\u2013Pyr\u00e9n\u00e9es Airport will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - TARBES-OSSUN - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "8.438",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Tarbes\u2013Lourdes\u2013Pyr\u00e9n\u00e9es Airport.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at EuroAirport Basel Mulhouse Freiburg will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - BALE-MULHOUSE - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "1.5750000000000002",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at EuroAirport Basel Mulhouse Freiburg.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D",
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D"
            ],
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Ajaccio will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - AJACCIO - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "10.913",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Ajaccio.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Reims \u2013 Prunay Aerodrome will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - REIMS-PRUNAY - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.025",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Reims \u2013 Prunay Aerodrome.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D",
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D"
            ],
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Ajaccio will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - AJACCIO - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "10.913",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Ajaccio.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Bordeaux\u2013M\u00e9rignac Airport will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - BORDEAUX-MERIGNAC - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "10.95",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Bordeaux\u2013M\u00e9rignac Airport.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D",
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D"
            ],
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Gourdon will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - GOURDON - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "9.213",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Gourdon.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Europa Island will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - EUROPA - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "28.925",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Europa Island.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D",
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D"
            ],
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Pointe-\u00e0-Pitre International Airport will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - LE RAIZET AERO - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "26.35",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Pointe-\u00e0-Pitre International Airport.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Lille Airport will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - LILLE-LESQUIN - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.75",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Lille Airport.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D",
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D"
            ],
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Saint-Pierre will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - ST-PIERRE - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "-4.087",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Saint-Pierre.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at La D\u00e9sirade will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - LA DESIRADE METEO - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "26.85",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at La D\u00e9sirade.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D",
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D"
            ],
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Nice will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - NICE - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "10.663",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Nice.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Saint-Girons will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - ST GIRONS - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "9.863",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Saint-Girons.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D",
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D"
            ],
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Clermont-Ferrand Auvergne Airport will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - CLERMONT-FD - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "6.2",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Clermont-Ferrand Auvergne Airport.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Limoges \u2013 Bellegarde Airport will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - LIMOGES-BELLEGARDE - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "9.288",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Limoges \u2013 Bellegarde Airport.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D",
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D"
            ],
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at EuroAirport Basel Mulhouse Freiburg will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - BALE-MULHOUSE - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "1.5750000000000002",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at EuroAirport Basel Mulhouse Freiburg.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Dijon-Bourgogne Airport will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - DIJON-LONGVIC - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "2.038",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Dijon-Bourgogne Airport.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D",
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D"
            ],
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Brest Bretagne Airport will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - BREST-GUIPAVAS - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "9.863",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Brest Bretagne Airport.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Limoges \u2013 Bellegarde Airport will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - LIMOGES-BELLEGARDE - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "9.288",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Limoges \u2013 Bellegarde Airport.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D",
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D"
            ],
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Poitiers\u2013Biard Airport will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - POITIERS-BIARD - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "6.25",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Poitiers\u2013Biard Airport.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Mont\u00e9limar will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - MONTELIMAR - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "6.663",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Mont\u00e9limar.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D",
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D"
            ],
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Ploumanac'h will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - PLOUMANAC'H - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "8.488",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Ploumanac'h.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Tromelin Island will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - TROMELIN - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "30.775",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Tromelin Island.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D",
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D"
            ],
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Dijon-Bourgogne Airport will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - DIJON-LONGVIC - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "2.038",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Dijon-Bourgogne Airport.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Rennes\u2013Saint-Jacques Airport will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - RENNES-ST JACQUES - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "6.388",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Rennes\u2013Saint-Jacques Airport.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D",
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D"
            ],
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Lyon\u2013Saint Exup\u00e9ry Airport will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - LYON-ST EXUPERY - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "4.088",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Lyon\u2013Saint Exup\u00e9ry Airport.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Lille Airport will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - LILLE-LESQUIN - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.75",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Lille Airport.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D",
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D"
            ],
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Amsterdam Island will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - NOUVELLE AMSTERDAM - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "18.575",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Amsterdam Island.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Europa Island will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - EUROPA - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "28.925",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Europa Island.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D",
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D"
            ],
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Brest Bretagne Airport will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - BREST-GUIPAVAS - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "9.863",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Brest Bretagne Airport.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Bourges will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - BOURGES - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "5.75",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Bourges.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D",
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D"
            ],
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Saint Barth\u00e9lemy will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - ST-BARTHELEMY METEO - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "31.15",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Saint Barth\u00e9lemy.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Pointe-\u00e0-Pitre International Airport will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - LE RAIZET AERO - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "26.35",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Pointe-\u00e0-Pitre International Airport.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D",
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D"
            ],
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Pointe De La Hague will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - PTE DE LA HAGUE - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "5.263",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Pointe De La Hague.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Ploumanac'h will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - PLOUMANAC'H - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "8.488",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Ploumanac'h.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D",
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D"
            ],
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Perpignan will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - PERPIGNAN - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "11.65",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Perpignan.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Troyes-Barberey Airport will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - TROYES-BARBEREY - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "1.65",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Troyes-Barberey Airport.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D",
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D"
            ],
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Orly will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - ORLY - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "3.4",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Orly.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Tromelin Island will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - TROMELIN - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "30.775",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Tromelin Island.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D",
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D"
            ],
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at \u00cele de la Possession will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - CROZET - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "8.375",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at \u00cele de la Possession.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Roland Garros Airport will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - GILLOT-AEROPORT - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "27.663",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Roland Garros Airport.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D",
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D"
            ],
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Reims \u2013 Prunay Aerodrome will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - REIMS-PRUNAY - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.025",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Reims \u2013 Prunay Aerodrome.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Tromelin Island will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - TROMELIN - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "30.775",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Tromelin Island.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D",
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D"
            ],
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Clermont-Ferrand Auvergne Airport will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - CLERMONT-FD - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "6.2",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Clermont-Ferrand Auvergne Airport.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Nantes Atlantique Airport will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - NANTES-BOUGUENAIS - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "7.425",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Nantes Atlantique Airport.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D",
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D"
            ],
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Alen\u00e7on will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - ALENCON - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "4.263",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Alen\u00e7on.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Reims \u2013 Prunay Aerodrome will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - REIMS-PRUNAY - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.025",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Reims \u2013 Prunay Aerodrome.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D",
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D"
            ],
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Martinique Aim\u00e9 C\u00e9saire International Airport will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - LAMENTIN-AERO - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "25.35",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Martinique Aim\u00e9 C\u00e9saire International Airport.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Tromelin Island will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - TROMELIN - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "30.775",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Tromelin Island.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D",
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D"
            ],
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Marignane will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - MARIGNANE - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "9.7",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Marignane.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Juan de Nova Island will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - JUAN DE NOVA - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "30.738",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Juan de Nova Island.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D",
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D"
            ],
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Alen\u00e7on will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - ALENCON - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "4.263",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Alen\u00e7on.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Saint-Girons will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - ST GIRONS - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "9.863",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Saint-Girons.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D",
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D"
            ],
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Orly will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - ORLY - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "3.4",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Orly.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Europa Island will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - EUROPA - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "28.925",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Europa Island.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D",
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D"
            ],
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Abbeville will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - ABBEVILLE - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "1.538",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Abbeville.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Juan de Nova Island will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - JUAN DE NOVA - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "30.738",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Juan de Nova Island.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D",
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D"
            ],
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Tromelin Island will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - TROMELIN - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "30.775",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Tromelin Island.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Saint-Laurent will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - SAINT LAURENT - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "25.225",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Saint-Laurent.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D",
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D"
            ],
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Saint-Pierre will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - ST-PIERRE - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "-4.087",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Saint-Pierre.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Rouen Airport will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - ROUEN-BOOS - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "2.15",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Rouen Airport.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D",
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D"
            ],
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Mont-de-Marsan will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - MONT-DE-MARSAN - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "10.55",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Mont-de-Marsan.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Mont\u00e9limar will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - MONTELIMAR - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "6.663",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Mont\u00e9limar.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D",
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D"
            ],
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Nancy \u2013 Ochey Air Base will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - NANCY-OCHEY - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "-0.687",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Nancy \u2013 Ochey Air Base.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at La D\u00e9sirade will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - LA DESIRADE METEO - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "26.85",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at La D\u00e9sirade.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D",
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D"
            ],
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Cayenne \u2013 F\u00e9lix \u00c9bou\u00e9 Airport will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - CAYENNE-MATOURY - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "26.288",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Cayenne \u2013 F\u00e9lix \u00c9bou\u00e9 Airport.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Troyes-Barberey Airport will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - TROYES-BARBEREY - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "1.65",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Troyes-Barberey Airport.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D",
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D"
            ],
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Ajaccio will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - AJACCIO - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "10.913",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Ajaccio.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Roland Garros Airport will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - GILLOT-AEROPORT - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "27.663",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Roland Garros Airport.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D",
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D"
            ],
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Strasbourg Airport will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - STRASBOURG-ENTZHEIM - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.425",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Strasbourg Airport.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Caen \u2013 Carpiquet Airport will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - CAEN-CARPIQUET - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "4.3",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Caen \u2013 Carpiquet Airport.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D",
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D"
            ],
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Marignane will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - MARIGNANE - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "9.7",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Marignane.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Caen \u2013 Carpiquet Airport will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - CAEN-CARPIQUET - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "4.3",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Caen \u2013 Carpiquet Airport.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D",
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D"
            ],
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Ajaccio will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - AJACCIO - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "10.913",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Ajaccio.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Le Puy \u2013 Loudes Airport will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - LE PUY-LOUDES - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "4.088",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Le Puy \u2013 Loudes Airport.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D",
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D"
            ],
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Pamandzi will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - PAMANDZI - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "28.725",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Pamandzi.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Saint-Laurent will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - SAINT LAURENT - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "25.225",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Saint-Laurent.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D",
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D"
            ],
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Embrun will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - EMBRUN - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "4.65",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Embrun.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Nantes Atlantique Airport will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - NANTES-BOUGUENAIS - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "7.425",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Nantes Atlantique Airport.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D",
                "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D"
            ],
            "source": "dbnomics",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Toulouse\u2013Blagnac Airport will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - TOULOUSE-BLAGNAC - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "10.463",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Toulouse\u2013Blagnac Airport.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D",
                    "source": "dbnomics",
                    "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Caen \u2013 Carpiquet Airport will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - CAEN-CARPIQUET - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "4.3",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The daily average temperature at the French weather station at Caen \u2013 Carpiquet Airport.",
                    "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "BAMLH0A0HYM2",
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "Will the option-adjusted spread for the ICE BofA US High Yield Index, which tracks the performance of corporate debt denominated below investment grade in the US domestic market, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLH0A0HYM2 once the data is published.",
            "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: The ICE BofA Option-Adjusted Spreads (OASs) are the calculated spreads between a computed OAS index of all bonds in a given rating category and a spot Treasury curve. An OAS index is constructed using each constituent bond's OAS, weighted by market capitalization. The ICE BofA High Yield Master II OAS uses an index of bonds that are below investment grade (those rated BB or below).\nThis data represents the ICE BofA US High Yield Index value, which tracks the performance of US dollar denominated below investment grade rated corporate debt publicly issued in the US domestic market. To qualify for inclusion in the index, securities must have a below investment grade rating (based on an average of Moody's, S&P, and Fitch) and an investment grade rated country of risk (based on an average of Moody's, S&P, and Fitch foreign currency long term sovereign debt ratings). Each security must have greater than 1 year of remaining maturity, a fixed coupon schedule, and a minimum amount outstanding of $100 million. Original issue zero coupon bonds, \"global\" securities (debt issued simultaneously in the eurobond and US domestic bond markets), 144a securities and pay-in-kind securities, including toggle notes, qualify for inclusion in the Index. Callable perpetual securities qualify provided they are at least one year from the first call date. Fixed-to-floating rate securities also qualify provided they are callable within the fixed rate period and are at least one year from the last call prior to the date the bond transitions from a fixed to a floating rate security. DRD-eligible and defaulted securities are excluded from the Index.\n\nICE BofA Explains the Construction Methodology of this series as:\nIndex constituents are capitalization-weighted based on their current amount outstanding. With the exception of U.S. mortgage pass-throughs and U.S. structured products (ABS, CMBS and CMOs), accrued interest is calculated assuming next-day settlement. Accrued interest for U.S. mortgage pass-through and U.S. structured products is calculated assuming same-day settlement. Cash flows from bond payments that are received during the month are retained in the index until the end of the month and then are removed as part of the rebalancing. Cash does not earn any reinvestment income while it is held in the Index. The Index is rebalanced on the last calendar day of the month, based on information available up to and including the third business day before the last business day of the month. Issues that meet the qualifying criteria are included in the Index for the following month. Issues that no longer meet the criteria during the course of the month remain in the Index until the next month-end rebalancing at which point they are removed from the Index.\n\nWhen the last calendar day of the month takes place on the weekend, weekend observations will occur as a result of month ending accrued interest adjustments.\n\nCertain indices and index data included in FRED are the property of ICE Data Indices, LLC (\u201cICE DATA\u201d) and used under license. ICE\u00ae IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF ICE DATA OR ITS AFFILIATES AND BOFA\u00ae IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION LICENSED BY BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION AND ITS AFFILIATES (\u201cBOFA\u201d) AND MAY NOT BE USED WITHOUT BOFA\u2019S PRIOR WRITTEN APPROVAL. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL WARRANTIES AND REPRESENTATIONS, EXPRESS AND/OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, INCLUDING WITH REGARD TO THE INDICES, INDEX DATA AND ANY DATA INCLUDED IN, RELATED TO, OR DERIVED THEREFROM. NEITHER ICE DATA, NOR ITS AFFILIATES OR THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY PROVIDERS SHALL BE SUBJECT TO ANY DAMAGES OR LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO THE ADEQUACY, ACCURACY, TIMELINESS OR COMPLETENESS OF THE INDICES OR THE INDEX DATA OR ANY COMPONENT THEREOF. THE INDICES AND INDEX DATA AND ALL COMPONENTS THEREOF ARE PROVIDED ON AN \u201cAS IS\u201d BASIS AND YOUR USE IS AT YOUR OWN RISK. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DO NOT SPONSOR, ENDORSE, OR RECOMMEND FRED, OR ANY OF ITS PRODUCTS OR SERVICES.\n\nCopyright, 2023, ICE Data Indices. Reproduction of this data in any form is prohibited except with the prior written permission of ICE Data Indices.\n\nThe end of day Index values, Index returns, and Index statistics (\u201cTop Level Data\u201d) are being provided for your internal use only and you are not authorized or permitted to publish, distribute or otherwise furnish Top Level Data to any third-party without prior written approval of ICE Data.\nNeither ICE Data, its affiliates nor any of its third party suppliers shall have any liability for the accuracy or completeness of the Top Level Data furnished through FRED, or for delays, interruptions or omissions therein nor for any lost profits, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages.\nThe Top Level Data is not investment advice and a reference to a particular investment or security, a credit rating or any observation concerning a security or investment provided in the Top Level Data is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such investment or security or make any other investment decisions.\nYou shall not use any Indices as a reference index for the purpose of creating financial products (including but not limited to any exchange-traded fund or other passive index-tracking fund, or any other financial instrument whose objective or return is linked in any way to any Index) without prior written approval of ICE Data.\nICE Data, their affiliates or their third party suppliers have exclusive proprietary rights in the Top Level Data and any information and software received in connection therewith.\nYou shall not use or permit anyone to use the Top Level Data for any unlawful or unauthorized purpose.\nAccess to the Top Level Data is subject to termination in the event that any agreement between FRED and ICE Data terminates for any reason.\nICE Data may enforce its rights against you as the third-party beneficiary of the FRED Services Terms of Use, even though ICE Data is not a party to the FRED Services Terms of Use.\nThe FRED Services Terms of Use, including but limited to the limitation of liability, indemnity and disclaimer provisions, shall extend to third party suppliers..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily, Close ",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLH0A0HYM2",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "2.62",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread from the release ICE BofA Indices.",
            "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "RRPONTTLD",
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "Will the aggregated daily value of securities sold by the Federal Reserve in temporary open market operations have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRPONTTLD once the data is published.",
            "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: This series is constructed as the aggregated daily amount value of the RRP transactions reported by the New York Fed as part of the Temporary Open Market Operations.\n\nTemporary open market operations involve short-term repurchase and reverse repurchase agreements that are designed to temporarily add or drain reserves available to the banking system and influence day-to-day trading in the federal funds market.\n\nA reverse repurchase agreement (known as reverse repo or RRP) is a transaction in which the New York Fed under the authorization and direction of the Federal Open Market Committee sells a security to an eligible counterparty with an agreement to repurchase that same security at a specified price at a specific time in the future. For these transactions, eligible securities are U.S. Treasury instruments, federal agency debt and the mortgage-backed securities issued or fully guaranteed by federal agencies.\nFor more information, see https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/rrp_faq.html.  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Billions of US Dollars.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily ",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRPONTTLD",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "73.196",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Overnight Reverse Repurchase Agreements: Total Securities Sold by the Federal Reserve in the Temporary Open Market Operations from the release Temporary Open Market Operations.",
            "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "SOFR",
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "Will the Federal Reserve's Secured Overnight Financing Rate have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SOFR once the data is published.",
            "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: N/A.  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily ",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SOFR",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "4.37",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Secured Overnight Financing Rate from the release Secured Overnight Financing Rate Data.",
            "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "NIKKEI225",
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "Will the Nikkei 225 Stock Average, which represent the daily index value at market close, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NIKKEI225 once the data is published.",
            "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: The observations for the Nikkei Stock Average, Nikkei 225 represent the daily index value at market close.\n\nNikkei 225 is the major stock market index comprising of 225 highly liquid stocks of the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE).\n\nFor in depth information, visit here (http://indexes.nikkei.co.jp/nkave/archives/faq/faq_nikkei_stock_average_en.pdf).\n\nCopyright, 2016, Nikkei Inc. Reprinted with permission.\n\nDownloading the data for research reports or research projects is permitted.\n\nHowever, if you wish to redistribute the data itself or research reports (information with Nikkei data) to the third parties/persons, the user shall report back to the Nikkei, Inc for permission..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Index.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily, Close ",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NIKKEI225",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "39164.61",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Nikkei Stock Average, Nikkei 225 from the release Nikkei Indexes.",
            "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "GASREGW",
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "Will the average price of regular gas in the US have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW once the data is published.",
            "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: Weighted average based on sampling of approximately 900 retail outlets, 8:00AM Monday. The price represents self-service unless only full-service is available and includes all taxes. See (http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/wrgp/mogas_home_page.html) for further definitions. Regular Gasoline has an antiknock index (average of the research octane rating and the motor octane number) greater than or equal to 85 and less than 88. Octane requirements may vary by altitude..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Dollars per Gallon.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, Ending Monday ",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "3.148",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in US Regular All Formulations Gas Price from the release Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update.",
            "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "DGS7",
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "Will the market yield on US treasury securities at 7-year constant maturity, quoted on an investment basis, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS7 once the data is published.",
            "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: H.15 Statistical Release notes (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/default.htm) and the Treasury Yield Curve Methodology (https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/interest-rate-statistics/treasury-yield-curve-methodology).\n\nFor questions on the data, please contact the data source (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%). For questions on FRED functionality, please contact us here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/).</p>.  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily ",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS7",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "4.48",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 7-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis from the release H.15 Selected Interest Rates.",
            "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "BAMLH0A1HYBB",
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "Will the option-adjusted spread of securities with an investment grade rating of BB in the ICE BofA US High Yield Master II Index, which tracks the performance of corporate debt below investment grade in the US domestic market, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLH0A1HYBB once the data is published.",
            "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: This data represents the Option-Adjusted Spread (OAS) of the ICE BofA US Corporate BB Index, a subset of the ICE BofA US High Yield Master II Index tracking the performance of US dollar denominated below investment grade rated corporate debt publicly issued in the US domestic market. This subset includes all securities with a given investment grade rating BB.\nThe ICE BofA OASs are the calculated spreads between a computed OAS index of all bonds in a given rating category and a spot Treasury curve. An OAS index is constructed using each constituent bond's OAS, weighted by market capitalization. When the last calendar day of the month takes place on the weekend, weekend observations will occur as a result of month ending accrued interest adjustments.\n\nCertain indices and index data included in FRED are the property of ICE Data Indices, LLC (\u201cICE DATA\u201d) and used under license. ICE\u00ae IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF ICE DATA OR ITS AFFILIATES AND BOFA\u00ae IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION LICENSED BY BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION AND ITS AFFILIATES (\u201cBOFA\u201d) AND MAY NOT BE USED WITHOUT BOFA\u2019S PRIOR WRITTEN APPROVAL. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL WARRANTIES AND REPRESENTATIONS, EXPRESS AND/OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, INCLUDING WITH REGARD TO THE INDICES, INDEX DATA AND ANY DATA INCLUDED IN, RELATED TO, OR DERIVED THEREFROM. NEITHER ICE DATA, NOR ITS AFFILIATES OR THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY PROVIDERS SHALL BE SUBJECT TO ANY DAMAGES OR LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO THE ADEQUACY, ACCURACY, TIMELINESS OR COMPLETENESS OF THE INDICES OR THE INDEX DATA OR ANY COMPONENT THEREOF. THE INDICES AND INDEX DATA AND ALL COMPONENTS THEREOF ARE PROVIDED ON AN \u201cAS IS\u201d BASIS AND YOUR USE IS AT YOUR OWN RISK. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DO NOT SPONSOR, ENDORSE, OR RECOMMEND FRED, OR ANY OF ITS PRODUCTS OR SERVICES.\n\nCopyright, 2023, ICE Data Indices. Reproduction of this data in any form is prohibited except with the prior written permission of ICE Data Indices.\n\nThe end of day Index values, Index returns, and Index statistics (\u201cTop Level Data\u201d) are being provided for your internal use only and you are not authorized or permitted to publish, distribute or otherwise furnish Top Level Data to any third-party without prior written approval of ICE Data.\nNeither ICE Data, its affiliates nor any of its third party suppliers shall have any liability for the accuracy or completeness of the Top Level Data furnished through FRED, or for delays, interruptions or omissions therein nor for any lost profits, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages.\nThe Top Level Data is not investment advice and a reference to a particular investment or security, a credit rating or any observation concerning a security or investment provided in the Top Level Data is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such investment or security or make any other investment decisions.\nYou shall not use any Indices as a reference index for the purpose of creating financial products (including but not limited to any exchange-traded fund or other passive index-tracking fund, or any other financial instrument whose objective or return is linked in any way to any Index) without prior written approval of ICE Data.\nICE Data, their affiliates or their third party suppliers have exclusive proprietary rights in the Top Level Data and any information and software received in connection therewith.\nYou shall not use or permit anyone to use the Top Level Data for any unlawful or unauthorized purpose.\nAccess to the Top Level Data is subject to termination in the event that any agreement between FRED and ICE Data terminates for any reason.\nICE Data may enforce its rights against you as the third-party beneficiary of the FRED Services Terms of Use, even though ICE Data is not a party to the FRED Services Terms of Use.\nThe FRED Services Terms of Use, including but limited to the limitation of liability, indemnity and disclaimer provisions, shall extend to third party suppliers..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily, Close ",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLH0A1HYBB",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "1.56",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in ICE BofA BB US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread from the release ICE BofA Indices.",
            "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "DGS3",
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "Will the market yield on US treasury securities at 3-year constant maturity, quoted on an investment basis, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS3 once the data is published.",
            "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: H.15 Statistical Release notes (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/default.htm) and the Treasury Yield Curve Methodology (https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/interest-rate-statistics/treasury-yield-curve-methodology).\n\nFor questions on the data, please contact the data source (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%). For questions on FRED functionality, please contact us here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/).</p>.  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily ",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS3",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "4.33",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 3-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis from the release H.15 Selected Interest Rates.",
            "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT",
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "Will the euro short-term rate (volume-weighted trimmed mean), a measure of the borrowing costs of banks in the euro area, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT once the data is published.",
            "background": "The notes from the release: The euro short-term rate (\u20acSTR) reflects the wholesale euro unsecured overnight borrowing costs of banks located in the euro area. The \u20acSTR is published on each TARGET2 business day based on transactions conducted and settled on the previous TARGET2 business day (the reporting date \u201cT\u201d) with a maturity date of T+1 which are deemed to have been executed at arm\u2019s length and thus reflect market rates in an unbiased way..  The notes from the series: The euro short-term rate (\u20acSTR) reflects the wholesale euro unsecured overnight borrowing costs of banks located in the euro area. The ECB publishes on its website the \u20acSTR at 08:00 CET on each TARGET2 business date. The \u20acSTR time series is updated on the ECB\u2019s Statistical Data Warehouse (SDW) shortly after the \u20acSTR publication.\n\nThe daily \u20acSTR is based on the transactions with overnight maturity that were traded and settled on the previous TARGET2 date. In SDW, the \u20acSTR series are indexed by time, where the time index reflects the trade date of the underlying transactions. For example, the observations on the rate, volume traded, etc. with time index 1 October 2019 reflect trading activity on that day, and correspond to the \u20acSTR published on 2 October 2019.\n\nFor further information refer to the <a href='https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/financial_markets_and_interest_rates/euro_short-term_rate/html/eurostr_overview.en.html'>Overview of \u20acSTR </>..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily ",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "2.666",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Euro Short-Term Rate: Volume-Weighted Trimmed Mean Rate from the release Euro Short Term Rate.",
            "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "ICSA",
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "Will the weekly number of initial unemployment claims have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA once the data is published.",
            "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: An initial claim is a claim filed by an unemployed individual after a separation from an employer. The claim requests a determination of basic eligibility for the Unemployment Insurance program..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Number.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, Ending Saturday ",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "213000.0",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Initial Claims from the release Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report.",
            "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "DGS2",
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "Will the market yield on US treasury securities at 2-year constant maturity, quoted on an investment basis, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2 once the data is published.",
            "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: H.15 Statistical Release notes (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/default.htm) and the Treasury Yield Curve Methodology (https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/interest-rate-statistics/treasury-yield-curve-methodology).\n\nFor questions on the data, please contact the data source (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%). For questions on FRED functionality, please contact us here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/).</p>.  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily ",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "4.29",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 2-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis from the release H.15 Selected Interest Rates.",
            "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "WRBWFRBL",
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "Will the total dollar amount of reserve balances held with Federal Reverse Banks have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WRBWFRBL once the data is published.",
            "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h41/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: Reserve balances with Federal Reserve Banks are the difference between \"total factors supplying reserve funds\" and \"total factors, other than reserve balances, absorbing reserve funds.\" This item includes balances at the Federal Reserve of all depository institutions that are used to satisfy reserve requirements and balances held in excess of balance requirements. It excludes reserves held in the form of cash in bank vaults, and excludes service-related deposits..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Millions of U.S. Dollars.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, As of Wednesday ",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WRBWFRBL",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "3255407.0",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Liabilities and Capital: Other Factors Draining Reserve Balances: Reserve Balances with Federal Reserve Banks: Wednesday Level from the release H.4.1 Factors Affecting Reserve Balances.",
            "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "WLRRAL",
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "Will the weekly dollar amount associated with Federal Reserve reverse repurchase agreements have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WLRRAL once the data is published.",
            "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h41/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: Reverse repurchase agreements are transactions in which securities are sold to a set of counterparties under an agreement to buy them back from the same party on a specified date at the same price plus interest. Reverse repurchase agreements may be conducted with foreign official and international accounts as a service to the holders of these accounts. All other reverse repurchase agreements, including transactions with primary dealers and a set of eligible money market funds, are open market operations intended to manage the supply of reserve balances; reverse repurchase agreements absorb reserve balances from the banking system for the length of the agreement. As with repurchase agreements, the naming convention used here reflects the transaction from the counterparties' perspective; the Federal Reserve receives cash in a reverse repurchase agreement and provides collateral to the counterparties..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Millions of U.S. Dollars.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, As of Wednesday ",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WLRRAL",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "452467.0",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Liabilities and Capital: Liabilities: Reverse Repurchase Agreements: Wednesday Level from the release H.4.1 Factors Affecting Reserve Balances.",
            "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "RIFSPPFAAD90NB",
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "Will the 90-day AA Financial Commercial Paper Interest Rate have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RIFSPPFAAD90NB once the data is published.",
            "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/cp/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: For more information, please see http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/cp/about.htm..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily ",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RIFSPPFAAD90NB",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "4.39",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in 90-Day AA Financial Commercial Paper Interest Rate from the release Commercial Paper.",
            "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "RESPPLLOPNWW",
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "Will the total weekly remittance of earnings by the Federal Reserve to the US Treasury have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RESPPLLOPNWW once the data is published.",
            "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h41/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: N/A.  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Millions of U.S. Dollars.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, As of Wednesday ",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RESPPLLOPNWW",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "-222569.0",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Liabilities and Capital: Liabilities: Earnings Remittances Due to the U.S. Treasury: Wednesday Level from the release H.4.1 Factors Affecting Reserve Balances.",
            "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "BAMLC0A0CM",
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "Will the option-adjusted spread of the ICE BofA Corporate Index, which tracks the performance of corporate debt issued in the US domestic market, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLC0A0CM once the data is published.",
            "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: The ICE BofA Option-Adjusted Spreads (OASs) are the calculated spreads between a computed OAS index of all bonds in a given rating category and a spot Treasury curve. An OAS index is constructed using each constituent bond's OAS, weighted by market capitalization. The Corporate Master OAS uses an index of bonds that are considered investment grade (those rated BBB or better). When the last calendar day of the month takes place on the weekend, weekend observations will occur as a result of month ending accrued interest adjustments.\n\nThis data represents the ICE BofA US Corporate Index value, which tracks the performance of US dollar denominated investment grade rated corporate debt publicly issued in the US domestic market. To qualify for inclusion in the index, securities must have an investment grade rating (based on an average of Moody's, S&P, and Fitch) and an investment grade rated country of risk (based on an average of Moody's, S&P, and Fitch foreign currency long term sovereign debt ratings). Each security must have greater than 1 year of remaining maturity, a fixed coupon schedule, and a minimum amount outstanding of $250 million. Original issue zero coupon bonds, \"global\" securities (debt issued simultaneously in the eurobond and US\ndomestic bond markets), 144a securities and pay-in-kind securities, including toggle notes, qualify for inclusion in the Index. Callable perpetual securities qualify provided they are at least one year from the first call date. Fixed-to-floating rate securities also qualify provided they are callable within the fixed rate period and are at least one year from the last call prior to the date the bond transitions from a fixed to a floating rate security. DRD-eligible and defaulted securities are excluded from the Index.\n\nICE BofA Explains the Construction Methodology of this series as:\nIndex constituents are capitalization-weighted based on their current amount outstanding. With the exception of U.S. mortgage pass-throughs and U.S. structured products (ABS, CMBS and CMOs), accrued interest is calculated assuming next-day settlement. Accrued interest for U.S. mortgage pass-through and U.S. structured products is calculated assuming same-day settlement. Cash flows from bond payments that are received during the month are retained in the index until the end of the month and then are removed as part of the rebalancing. Cash does not earn any reinvestment income while it is held in the Index. The Index is rebalanced on the last calendar day of the month, based on information available up to and including the third business day before the last business day of the month. Issues that meet the qualifying criteria are included in the Index for the following month. Issues that no longer meet the criteria during the course of the month\nremain in the Index until the next month-end rebalancing at which point they are removed from the Index.\n\nWhen the last calendar day of the month takes place on the weekend, weekend observations will occur as a result of month ending accrued interest adjustments.\n\nCertain indices and index data included in FRED are the property of ICE Data Indices, LLC (\u201cICE DATA\u201d) and used under license. ICE\u00ae IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF ICE DATA OR ITS AFFILIATES AND BOFA\u00ae IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION LICENSED BY BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION AND ITS AFFILIATES (\u201cBOFA\u201d) AND MAY NOT BE USED WITHOUT BOFA\u2019S PRIOR WRITTEN APPROVAL. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL WARRANTIES AND REPRESENTATIONS, EXPRESS AND/OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, INCLUDING WITH REGARD TO THE INDICES, INDEX DATA AND ANY DATA INCLUDED IN, RELATED TO, OR DERIVED THEREFROM. NEITHER ICE DATA, NOR ITS AFFILIATES OR THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY PROVIDERS SHALL BE SUBJECT TO ANY DAMAGES OR LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO THE ADEQUACY, ACCURACY, TIMELINESS OR COMPLETENESS OF THE INDICES OR THE INDEX DATA OR ANY COMPONENT THEREOF. THE INDICES AND INDEX DATA AND ALL COMPONENTS THEREOF ARE PROVIDED ON AN \u201cAS IS\u201d BASIS AND YOUR USE IS AT YOUR OWN RISK. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DO NOT SPONSOR, ENDORSE, OR RECOMMEND FRED, OR ANY OF ITS PRODUCTS OR SERVICES.\n\nCopyright, 2023, ICE Data Indices. Reproduction of this data in any form is prohibited except with the prior written permission of ICE Data Indices.\n\nThe end of day Index values, Index returns, and Index statistics (\u201cTop Level Data\u201d) are being provided for your internal use only and you are not authorized or permitted to publish, distribute or otherwise furnish Top Level Data to any third-party without prior written approval of ICE Data.\nNeither ICE Data, its affiliates nor any of its third party suppliers shall have any liability for the accuracy or completeness of the Top Level Data furnished through FRED, or for delays, interruptions or omissions therein nor for any lost profits, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages.\nThe Top Level Data is not investment advice and a reference to a particular investment or security, a credit rating or any observation concerning a security or investment provided in the Top Level Data is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such investment or security or make any other investment decisions.\nYou shall not use any Indices as a reference index for the purpose of creating financial products (including but not limited to any exchange-traded fund or other passive index-tracking fund, or any other financial instrument whose objective or return is linked in any way to any Index) without prior written approval of ICE Data.\nICE Data, their affiliates or their third party suppliers have exclusive proprietary rights in the Top Level Data and any information and software received in connection therewith.\nYou shall not use or permit anyone to use the Top Level Data for any unlawful or unauthorized purpose.\nAccess to the Top Level Data is subject to termination in the event that any agreement between FRED and ICE Data terminates for any reason.\nICE Data may enforce its rights against you as the third-party beneficiary of the FRED Services Terms of Use, even though ICE Data is not a party to the FRED Services Terms of Use.\nThe FRED Services Terms of Use, including but limited to the limitation of liability, indemnity and disclaimer provisions, shall extend to third party suppliers..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily, Close ",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLC0A0CM",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.79",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in ICE BofA US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread from the release ICE BofA Indices.",
            "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "GVZCLS",
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "Will the Chicago Board Options Exchange's Gold ETF Volatility Index have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GVZCLS once the data is published.",
            "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) are shares of trusts that hold portfolios of stocks designed to closely track the price performance and yield of specific indices. Copyright, 2016, Chicago Board Options Exchange, Inc. Reprinted with permission..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Index.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily, Close ",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GVZCLS",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "18.03",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in CBOE Gold ETF Volatility Index from the release CBOE Market Statistics.",
            "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "BAMLC0A3CA",
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "Will the option-adjusted spread of securities with an investment grade rating of A in the ICE BofA US Corporate Index, which tracks the performance of corporate debt issued in the US domestic market, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLC0A3CA once the data is published.",
            "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: This data represents the Option-Adjusted Spread (OAS) of the ICE BofA Single-A US Corporate Index, a subset of the ICE BofA US Corporate Master Index tracking the performance of US dollar denominated investment grade rated corporate debt publicly issued in the US domestic market. This subset includes all securities with a given investment grade rating A.\nThe ICE BofA OASs are the calculated spreads between a computed OAS index of all bonds in a given rating category and a spot Treasury curve. An OAS index is constructed using each constituent bond's OAS, weighted by market capitalization. When the last calendar day of the month takes place on the weekend, weekend observations will occur as a result of month ending accrued interest adjustments.\n\nCertain indices and index data included in FRED are the property of ICE Data Indices, LLC (\u201cICE DATA\u201d) and used under license. ICE\u00ae IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF ICE DATA OR ITS AFFILIATES AND BOFA\u00ae IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION LICENSED BY BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION AND ITS AFFILIATES (\u201cBOFA\u201d) AND MAY NOT BE USED WITHOUT BOFA\u2019S PRIOR WRITTEN APPROVAL. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL WARRANTIES AND REPRESENTATIONS, EXPRESS AND/OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, INCLUDING WITH REGARD TO THE INDICES, INDEX DATA AND ANY DATA INCLUDED IN, RELATED TO, OR DERIVED THEREFROM. NEITHER ICE DATA, NOR ITS AFFILIATES OR THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY PROVIDERS SHALL BE SUBJECT TO ANY DAMAGES OR LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO THE ADEQUACY, ACCURACY, TIMELINESS OR COMPLETENESS OF THE INDICES OR THE INDEX DATA OR ANY COMPONENT THEREOF. THE INDICES AND INDEX DATA AND ALL COMPONENTS THEREOF ARE PROVIDED ON AN \u201cAS IS\u201d BASIS AND YOUR USE IS AT YOUR OWN RISK. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DO NOT SPONSOR, ENDORSE, OR RECOMMEND FRED, OR ANY OF ITS PRODUCTS OR SERVICES.\n\nCopyright, 2023, ICE Data Indices. Reproduction of this data in any form is prohibited except with the prior written permission of ICE Data Indices.\n\nThe end of day Index values, Index returns, and Index statistics (\u201cTop Level Data\u201d) are being provided for your internal use only and you are not authorized or permitted to publish, distribute or otherwise furnish Top Level Data to any third-party without prior written approval of ICE Data.\nNeither ICE Data, its affiliates nor any of its third party suppliers shall have any liability for the accuracy or completeness of the Top Level Data furnished through FRED, or for delays, interruptions or omissions therein nor for any lost profits, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages.\nThe Top Level Data is not investment advice and a reference to a particular investment or security, a credit rating or any observation concerning a security or investment provided in the Top Level Data is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such investment or security or make any other investment decisions.\nYou shall not use any Indices as a reference index for the purpose of creating financial products (including but not limited to any exchange-traded fund or other passive index-tracking fund, or any other financial instrument whose objective or return is linked in any way to any Index) without prior written approval of ICE Data.\nICE Data, their affiliates or their third party suppliers have exclusive proprietary rights in the Top Level Data and any information and software received in connection therewith.\nYou shall not use or permit anyone to use the Top Level Data for any unlawful or unauthorized purpose.\nAccess to the Top Level Data is subject to termination in the event that any agreement between FRED and ICE Data terminates for any reason.\nICE Data may enforce its rights against you as the third-party beneficiary of the FRED Services Terms of Use, even though ICE Data is not a party to the FRED Services Terms of Use.\nThe FRED Services Terms of Use, including but limited to the limitation of liability, indemnity and disclaimer provisions, shall extend to third party suppliers..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily, Close ",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLC0A3CA",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.66",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in ICE BofA Single-A US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread from the release ICE BofA Indices.",
            "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "D2WLTGAL",
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "Will the amount of money held by the US Treasury in its general account at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/D2WLTGAL once the data is published.",
            "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h41/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: N/A.  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Millions of U.S. Dollars.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, As of Wednesday ",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/D2WLTGAL",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "809154.0",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Liabilities and Capital: Liabilities: Deposits: U.S. Treasury General Account: Wednesday Level in Federal Reserve District 2: New York from the release H.4.1 Factors Affecting Reserve Balances.",
            "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "DFII10",
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "Will the market yield on US treasury securities at 10-year constant maturity, quoted on an investment basis and inflation-indexed, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFII10 once the data is published.",
            "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: H.15 Statistical Release notes (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/default.htm) and the Treasury Yield Curve Methodology (https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/interest-rate-statistics/treasury-yield-curve-methodology).\n\nFor questions on the data, please contact the data source (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%). For questions on FRED functionality, please contact us here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/).</p>.  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily ",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFII10",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "2.1",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis, Inflation-Indexed from the release H.15 Selected Interest Rates.",
            "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "DFF",
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "Will the effective federal funds rate (interest rate) have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFF once the data is published.",
            "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series:  Daily Federal Funds Rate from 1928-1954 (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/categories/33951).\n\nThe federal funds rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions trade federal funds (balances held at Federal Reserve Banks) with each other overnight. When a depository institution has surplus balances in its reserve account, it lends to other banks in need of larger balances. In simpler terms, a bank with excess cash, which is often referred to as liquidity, will lend to another bank that needs to quickly raise liquidity. (1) The rate that the borrowing institution pays to the lending institution is determined between the two banks; the weighted average rate for all of these types of negotiations is called the effective federal funds rate.(2) The effective federal funds rate is essentially determined by the market but is influenced by the Federal Reserve through open market operations to reach the federal funds rate target.(2)\n\nThe Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets eight times a year to determine the federal funds target rate. As previously stated, this rate influences the effective federal funds rate through open market operations or by buying and selling of government bonds (government debt).(2) More specifically, the Federal Reserve decreases liquidity by selling government bonds, thereby raising the federal funds rate because banks have less liquidity to trade with other banks. Similarly, the Federal Reserve can increase liquidity by buying government bonds, decreasing the federal funds rate because banks have excess liquidity for trade. Whether the Federal Reserve wants to buy or sell bonds depends on the state of the economy. If the FOMC believes the economy is growing too fast and inflation pressures are inconsistent with the dual mandate of the Federal Reserve, the Committee may set a higher federal funds rate target to temper economic activity. In the opposing scenario, the FOMC may set a lower federal funds rate target to spur greater economic activity. Therefore, the FOMC must observe the current state of the economy to determine the best course of monetary policy that will maximize economic growth while adhering to the dual mandate set forth by Congress. In making its monetary policy decisions, the FOMC considers a wealth of economic data, such as: trends in prices and wages, employment, consumer spending and income, business investments, and foreign exchange markets.\n\nThe federal funds rate is the central interest rate in the U.S. financial market. It influences other interest rates such as the prime rate, which is the rate banks charge their customers with higher credit ratings. Additionally, the federal funds rate indirectly influences longer- term interest rates such as mortgages, loans, and savings, all of which are very important to consumer wealth and confidence.(2)\n\nReferences\n(1) Federal Reserve Bank of New York. \"Federal funds.\" Fedpoints, August 2007.\n(2) Monetary Policy (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy.htm), Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.\n\nFor questions on the data, please contact the data source (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%). For questions on FRED functionality, please contact us here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/).</p>.  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily, 7-Day ",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFF",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "4.33",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Federal Funds Effective Rate from the release H.15 Selected Interest Rates.",
            "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "DGS10",
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "Will the market yield on US treasury securities at 10-year constant maturity, quoted on an investment basis, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10 once the data is published.",
            "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: H.15 Statistical Release (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/current/h15.pdf) notes and Treasury Yield Curve Methodology (https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/yieldmethod.aspx).\n\nFor questions on the data, please contact the data source (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%). For questions on FRED functionality, please contact us here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/).</p>.  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily ",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "4.55",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis from the release H.15 Selected Interest Rates.",
            "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "BAMLC0A2CAAEY",
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "Will the effective yield of securities with an investment grade rating of AA in the ICE BofA US Corporate Index, which tracks the performance of corporate debt issued in the US domestic market, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLC0A2CAAEY once the data is published.",
            "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: This data represents the effective yield of the ICE BofA AA US Corporate Index, a subset of the ICE BofA US Corporate Master Index tracking the performance of US dollar denominated investment grade rated corporate debt publicly issued in the US domestic market. This subset includes all securities with a given investment grade rating AA. When the last calendar day of the month takes place on the weekend, weekend observations will occur as a result of month ending accrued interest adjustments.\n\nCertain indices and index data included in FRED are the property of ICE Data Indices, LLC (\u201cICE DATA\u201d) and used under license. ICE\u00ae IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF ICE DATA OR ITS AFFILIATES AND BOFA\u00ae IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION LICENSED BY BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION AND ITS AFFILIATES (\u201cBOFA\u201d) AND MAY NOT BE USED WITHOUT BOFA\u2019S PRIOR WRITTEN APPROVAL. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL WARRANTIES AND REPRESENTATIONS, EXPRESS AND/OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, INCLUDING WITH REGARD TO THE INDICES, INDEX DATA AND ANY DATA INCLUDED IN, RELATED TO, OR DERIVED THEREFROM. NEITHER ICE DATA, NOR ITS AFFILIATES OR THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY PROVIDERS SHALL BE SUBJECT TO ANY DAMAGES OR LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO THE ADEQUACY, ACCURACY, TIMELINESS OR COMPLETENESS OF THE INDICES OR THE INDEX DATA OR ANY COMPONENT THEREOF. THE INDICES AND INDEX DATA AND ALL COMPONENTS THEREOF ARE PROVIDED ON AN \u201cAS IS\u201d BASIS AND YOUR USE IS AT YOUR OWN RISK. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DO NOT SPONSOR, ENDORSE, OR RECOMMEND FRED, OR ANY OF ITS PRODUCTS OR SERVICES.\n\nCopyright, 2023, ICE Data Indices. Reproduction of this data in any form is prohibited except with the prior written permission of ICE Data Indices.\n\nThe end of day Index values, Index returns, and Index statistics (\u201cTop Level Data\u201d) are being provided for your internal use only and you are not authorized or permitted to publish, distribute or otherwise furnish Top Level Data to any third-party without prior written approval of ICE Data.\nNeither ICE Data, its affiliates nor any of its third party suppliers shall have any liability for the accuracy or completeness of the Top Level Data furnished through FRED, or for delays, interruptions or omissions therein nor for any lost profits, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages.\nThe Top Level Data is not investment advice and a reference to a particular investment or security, a credit rating or any observation concerning a security or investment provided in the Top Level Data is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such investment or security or make any other investment decisions.\nYou shall not use any Indices as a reference index for the purpose of creating financial products (including but not limited to any exchange-traded fund or other passive index-tracking fund, or any other financial instrument whose objective or return is linked in any way to any Index) without prior written approval of ICE Data.\nICE Data, their affiliates or their third party suppliers have exclusive proprietary rights in the Top Level Data and any information and software received in connection therewith.\nYou shall not use or permit anyone to use the Top Level Data for any unlawful or unauthorized purpose.\nAccess to the Top Level Data is subject to termination in the event that any agreement between FRED and ICE Data terminates for any reason.\nICE Data may enforce its rights against you as the third-party beneficiary of the FRED Services Terms of Use, even though ICE Data is not a party to the FRED Services Terms of Use.\nThe FRED Services Terms of Use, including but limited to the limitation of liability, indemnity and disclaimer provisions, shall extend to third party suppliers..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily, Close ",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLC0A2CAAEY",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "4.97",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in ICE BofA AA US Corporate Index Effective Yield from the release ICE BofA Indices.",
            "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "CASACBW027SBOG",
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "Will the cash assets of all commercial US banks have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CASACBW027SBOG once the data is published.",
            "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h8/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: data source (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h8/%). For questions on FRED functionality, please contact us here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/).</p>.  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Billions of U.S. Dollars.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, Ending Wednesday ",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CASACBW027SBOG",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "3272.9132",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Cash Assets, All Commercial Banks from the release H.8 Assets and Liabilities of Commercial Banks in the United States.",
            "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "DGS6MO",
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "Will the market yield on US treasury securities at 6-month constant maturity, quoted on an investment basis, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS6MO once the data is published.",
            "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: H.15 Statistical Release notes (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/default.htm) and the Treasury Yield Curve Methodology (https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/interest-rate-statistics/treasury-yield-curve-methodology).\n\nFor questions on the data, please contact the data source (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%). For questions on FRED functionality, please contact us here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/).</p>.  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily ",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS6MO",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "4.34",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 6-Month Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis from the release H.15 Selected Interest Rates.",
            "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "IHLIDXUS",
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "Will the number of US job postings on Indeed have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXUS once the data is published.",
            "background": "The notes from the release: Indeed calculates the percentage change in seasonally-adjusted job postings since February 1, 2020, using a 7-day trailing average. February 1, 2020, is the pre-pandemic baseline. Indeed seasonally adjusts each series based on historical patterns in 2017, 2018, and 2019. Each series, including the national trend, occupational sectors, and sub-national geographies, is seasonally adjusted separately. Indeed switched to this new methodology in January 2021 and now reports all historical data using this new methodology. Historical numbers have been revised and may differ significantly from originally reported values. The new methodology applies a detrended seasonal adjustment factor to the percentage change in job postings.\r\n\r\nIndices are calculated for the U.S., Australia, Canada, Germany, Ireland, France, and the U.K. In addition for the U.S., indices are calculated for states, the largest metro areas by population.\r\n\r\nFor Frequently Asked Questions regarding Indeed Data, visit https://www.hiringlab.org/indeed-data-faq/.\r\n\r\nCopyrighted: Pre-approval required. Contact Indeed to request permission to use the data at their contact information at https://github.com/hiring-lab/data#readme.\r\n\r\nEnd Users are excluded of any warranty and liability on the part of Indeed for the accuracy of the Indeed Data. End Users will refrain from any external distribution of Indeed Data except in oral or written presentations, provided that such portions or derivations are incidental to and supportive of such presentations and, provided further that the End Users shall not distribute or disseminate in such presentations any amount of Indeed Data which could cause such presentations to be susceptible to use substantially as a source of or substitute for Indeed Data. End Users agree to credit Indeed as the source and owner of the Indeed Data when making it available to third parties in any permissible manner as well as in internal use. End Users agree to not sell or otherwise provide the Indeed Data obtained from Licensee to third parties..  The notes from the series: Indeed calculates the index change in seasonally-adjusted job postings since February 1, 2020, using a 7-day trailing average. February 1, 2020, is the pre-pandemic baseline. Indeed seasonally adjusts each series based on historical patterns in 2017, 2018, and 2019. Each series, including the national trend, occupational sectors, and sub-national geographies, is seasonally adjusted separately. Indeed switched to this new methodology in January 2021 and now reports all historical data using this new methodology. Historical numbers have been revised and may differ significantly from originally reported values. The new methodology applies a detrended seasonal adjustment factor to the index change in job postings. For more information, see Frequently Asked Questions (https://www.hiringlab.org/indeed-data-faq/) regarding Indeed Data.\n\nCopyrighted: Pre-approval required. Contact Indeed to request permission to use the data at their contact information provided here (https://github.com/hiring-lab/data#readme).\n\nEnd Users are excluded of any warranty and liability on the part of Indeed for the accuracy of the Indeed Data. End Users will refrain from any external distribution of Indeed Data except in oral or written presentations, provided that such portions or derivations are incidental to and supportive of such presentations and, provided further that the End Users shall not distribute or disseminate in such presentations any amount of Indeed Data which could cause such presentations to be susceptible to use substantially as a source of, or substitute for Indeed Data. End Users agree to credit Indeed as the source and owner of the Indeed Data when making it available to third parties in any permissible manner as well as in internal use. End Users agree to not sell or otherwise provide the Indeed Data obtained from Licensee to third parties..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Index Feb, 1 2020=100.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily, 7-Day ",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXUS",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "110.44",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Job Postings on Indeed in the United States from the release Job Postings on Indeed.",
            "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "NASDAQCOM",
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "Will the NASDAQ Composite Index, which represents the daily index value at market close, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NASDAQCOM once the data is published.",
            "background": "The notes from the release: National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations.  The notes from the series: The observations for the NASDAQ Composite Index represent the daily index value at market close. The market typically closes at 4 PM ET, except for holidays when it sometimes closes early.\n\nThe NASDAQ Composite Index is a market capitalization weighted index with more than 3000 common equities listed on the NASDAQ Stock Market. The types of securities in the index include American depositary receipts (ADRs), common stocks, real estate investment trusts (REITs), and tracking stocks. The index includes all NASDAQ listed stocks that are not derivatives, preferred shares, funds, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) or debentures.\n\nCopyright \u00c2\u00a9 2016, NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Index Feb 5, 1971=100.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily, Close ",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NASDAQCOM",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "20041.26",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in NASDAQ Composite Index from the release NASDAQ.",
            "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "IORB",
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "Will the Federal Reserve's interest rate on reserve balances have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IORB once the data is published.",
            "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/monetarypolicy/reserve-balances.htm\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: IOER (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IOER)) and the interest rate on required reserves (IORR (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IORR)) were replaced with a single rate, the interest rate on reserve balances (IORB (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IORB)). See the source's announcement (https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/bcreg20210602a.htm) for more details.\n\nThe interest rate on reserve balances (IORB rate) is the rate of interest that the Federal Reserve pays on balances maintained by or on behalf of eligible institutions in master accounts at Federal Reserve Banks. The interest rate is set by the Board of Governors, and it is an important tool of monetary policy.\n\nSee Policy Tools (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/reqresbalances.htm) and the IORB FAQs (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/iorb-faqs.htm) for more information.\n\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact us here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/).</p>.  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily, 7-Day ",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IORB",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "4.4",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Interest Rate on Reserve Balances (IORB Rate) from the release Interest Rate on Reserve Balances.",
            "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "SWPT",
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "Will the weekly value of central bank liquidity swaps held by the Federal Reserve have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SWPT once the data is published.",
            "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h41/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: The FOMC has authorized temporary reciprocal currency arrangements (central bank liquidity swaps) with certain foreign central banks to help provide liquidity in U.S. dollars to overseas markets.\n\nThese swaps involve two transactions. First, when the foreign central bank draws on the swap line, it sells a specified amount of its currency to the Federal Reserve in exchange for dollars at the prevailing market exchange rate. The foreign currency that the Federal Reserve acquires is placed in an account for the Federal Reserve at the foreign central bank. This line in the statistical release reports the dollar value of the foreign currency held under these swaps.\n\nSecond, the dollars that the Federal Reserve provides are deposited in an account for the foreign central bank at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. At the same time as the draw on the swap line, the Federal Reserve and the foreign central bank enter into a binding agreement for a second transaction in which the foreign central bank is obligated to repurchase the foreign currency at a specified future date at the same exchange rate. At the conclusion of the second transaction, the foreign central bank pays a market-based rate of interest to the Federal Reserve. Central bank liquidity swaps are of various maturities, ranging from overnight to three months..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Millions of U.S. Dollars.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, As of Wednesday ",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SWPT",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "73.0",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Assets: Central Bank Liquidity Swaps: Central Bank Liquidity Swaps: Wednesday Level from the release H.4.1 Factors Affecting Reserve Balances.",
            "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "DEXMXUS",
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "Will the spot exchange rate of Mexican pesos to US dollars have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DEXMXUS once the data is published.",
            "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h10/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: Noon buying rates in New York City for cable transfers payable in foreign currencies..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Mexican Pesos to One U.S. Dollar.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily ",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DEXMXUS",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "20.3097",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Mexican Pesos to U.S. Dollar Spot Exchange Rate from the release H.10 Foreign Exchange Rates.",
            "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "T10YIE",
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "Will the US' 10-year breakeven inflation rate have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10YIE once the data is published.",
            "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: The breakeven inflation rate represents a measure of expected inflation derived from 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Securities (BC_10YEAR) and 10-Year Treasury Inflation-Indexed Constant Maturity Securities (TC_10YEAR). The latest value implies what market participants expect inflation to be in the next 10 years, on average.\nStarting with the update on June 21, 2019, the Treasury bond data used in calculating interest rate spreads is obtained directly from the U.S. Treasury Department (https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield)..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily ",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10YIE",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "2.43",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate from the release Interest Rate Spreads.",
            "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "NFCIRISK",
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "Will the Chicago Fed's National Financial Conditions Risk Subindex have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NFCIRISK once the data is published.",
            "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: The Chicago Fed\u2019s National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) provides a comprehensive weekly update on U.S. financial conditions in money markets, debt and equity markets, and the traditional and \u201cshadow\u201d banking systems. Source: http://www.chicagofed.org/webpages/publications/nfci/index.cfm.\n\n\"Positive values of the NFCI indicate financial conditions that are tighter than average, while negative values indicate financial conditions that are looser than average.\"\n\n\"The three subindexes of the NFCI (risk, credit and leverage) allow for a more detailed examination of the movements in the NFCI. Like the NFCI, each is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one over a sample period extending back to 1971. The risk subindex captures volatility and funding risk in the financial sector; the credit subindex is composed of measures of credit conditions; and the leverage subindex consists of debt and equity measures. Increasing risk, tighter credit conditions and declining leverage are consistent with tightening financial conditions. Thus, a positive value for an individual subindex indicates that the corresponding aspect of financial conditions is tighter than on average, while negative values indicate the opposite.\" Source: http://www.chicagofed.org/webpages/research/data/nfci/background.cfm.\n\nFor further information, please visit the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's NFCI website at http://www.chicagofed.org/webpages/publications/nfci/index.cfm..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Index.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, Ending Friday ",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NFCIRISK",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "-0.66349",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Risk Subindex from the release Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index.",
            "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "SOFR30DAYAVG",
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "Will the 30-day average of the Federal Reserve's Secured Overnight Financing Rate have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SOFR30DAYAVG once the data is published.",
            "background": "The notes from the release: As an extension of the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), the SOFR Averages are compounded averages of the SOFR over rolling 30-, 90-, and 180-calendar day periods.\r\n\r\nThe SOFR Index measures the cumulative impact of compounding the SOFR on a unit of investment over time, with the initial value set to 1 on April 2, 2018, the first value date of the SOFR. The SOFR Index value reflects the effect of compounding the SOFR each business day and allows the calculation of compounded SOFR averages over custom time periods..  The notes from the series: As an extension of the additional documentation about the Treasury Repo Reference Rates. (https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/treasury-repo-reference-rates-information).  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily ",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SOFR30DAYAVG",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "4.348669999999999",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in 30-Day Average SOFR from the release SOFR Averages and Index Data.",
            "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "DFII30",
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "Will the market yield on US treasury securities at 30-year constant maturity, quoted on an investment basis and inflation-indexed, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFII30 once the data is published.",
            "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: H.15 Statistical Release notes (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/default.htm) and the Treasury Yield Curve Methodology (https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/interest-rate-statistics/treasury-yield-curve-methodology).\n\nFor questions on the data, please contact the data source (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%). For questions on FRED functionality, please contact us here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/).</p>.  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily ",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFII30",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "2.41",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 30-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis, Inflation-Indexed from the release H.15 Selected Interest Rates.",
            "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "RESPPANWW",
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "Will the total dollar amount of assets held by all US Federal Reserve banks have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RESPPANWW once the data is published.",
            "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h41/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: N/A.  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Millions of U.S. Dollars.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, As of Wednesday ",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RESPPANWW",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "6813513.0",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Assets: Total Assets: Total Assets: Wednesday Level from the release H.4.1 Factors Affecting Reserve Balances.",
            "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "WGS10YR",
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "Will the market yield on US treasury securities at 10-year constant maturity, quoted on an investment basis, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WGS10YR once the data is published.",
            "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: H.15 Statistical Release notes (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/default.htm) and the Treasury Yield Curve Methodology (https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/interest-rate-statistics/treasury-yield-curve-methodology).\n\nFor questions on the data, please contact the data source (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%). For questions on FRED functionality, please contact us here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/).</p>.  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, Ending Friday ",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WGS10YR",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "4.53",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis from the release H.15 Selected Interest Rates.",
            "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "WDTGAL",
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "Will the total dollar amount of deposits in the US Treasury's general accounts of Federal Reserve Banks, other than reserve balances, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WDTGAL once the data is published.",
            "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h41/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: This account is the primary operational account of the U.S. Treasury at the Federal Reserve. Virtually all U.S. government disbursements are made from this account. Some tax receipts, primarily individual and other tax payments made directly to the Treasury, are deposited in this account, and it is also used to collect funds from sales of Treasury debt..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Millions of U.S. Dollars.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, As of Wednesday ",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WDTGAL",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "809154.0",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Liabilities and Capital: Liabilities: Deposits with F.R. Banks, Other Than Reserve Balances: U.S. Treasury, General Account: Wednesday Level from the release H.4.1 Factors Affecting Reserve Balances.",
            "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "DFII5",
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "Will the market yield on US treasury securities at 5-year constant maturity, quoted on an investment basis and inflation-indexed, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFII5 once the data is published.",
            "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: H.15 Statistical Release notes (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/default.htm) and the Treasury Yield Curve Methodology (https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/interest-rate-statistics/treasury-yield-curve-methodology).\n\nFor questions on the data, please contact the data source (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%). For questions on FRED functionality, please contact us here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/).</p>.  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily ",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFII5",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "1.75",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 5-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis, Inflation-Indexed from the release H.15 Selected Interest Rates.",
            "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "DBAA",
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "Will Moody's Seasoned Baa Corporate Bond Yield have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DBAA once the data is published.",
            "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: These instruments are based on bonds with maturities 20 years and above. \n\n\u00a9 2017, Moody\u2019s Corporation, Moody\u2019s Investors Service, Inc., Moody\u2019s Analytics, Inc. and/or their licensors and affiliates (collectively, \u201cMoody\u2019s\u201d).  All rights reserved. Moody\u2019s ratings and other information (\u201cMoody\u2019s Information\u201d) are proprietary to Moody\u2019s and/or its licensors and are protected by copyright and other intellectual property laws.  Moody\u2019s Information is licensed to Client by Moody\u2019s.  MOODY\u2019S INFORMATION MAY NOT BE COPIED OR OTHERWISE REPRODUCED, REPACKAGED, FURTHER TRANSMITTED, TRANSFERRED, DISSEMINATED, REDISTRIBUTED OR RESOLD, OR STORED FOR SUBSEQUENT USE FOR ANY SUCH PURPOSE, IN WHOLE OR IN PART, IN ANY FORM OR MANNER OR BY ANY MEANS WHATSOEVER, BY ANY PERSON WITHOUT MOODY\u2019S PRIOR WRITTEN CONSENT..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily ",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DBAA",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "5.99",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Moody's Seasoned Baa Corporate Bond Yield from the release Moody's Daily Corporate Bond Yield Averages.",
            "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "WALCL",
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "Will the total dollar amount of assets held by all US Federal Reserve banks have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL once the data is published.",
            "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h41/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: N/A.  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Millions of U.S. Dollars.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, As of Wednesday ",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "6813513.0",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Assets: Total Assets: Total Assets (Less Eliminations from Consolidation): Wednesday Level from the release H.4.1 Factors Affecting Reserve Balances.",
            "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "BAMLC0A1CAAAEY",
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "Will the effective yield of securities with an investment grade rating of AAA in the ICE BofA US Corporate Index, which tracks the performance of corporate debt issued in the US domestic market, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLC0A1CAAAEY once the data is published.",
            "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: This data represents the effective yield of the ICE BofA AAA US Corporate Index, a subset of the ICE BofA US Corporate Master Index tracking the performance of US dollar denominated investment grade rated corporate debt publicly issued in the US domestic market. This subset includes all securities with a given investment grade rating AAA. When the last calendar day of the month takes place on the weekend, weekend observations will occur as a result of month ending accrued interest adjustments.\n\nCertain indices and index data included in FRED are the property of ICE Data Indices, LLC (\u201cICE DATA\u201d) and used under license. ICE\u00ae IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF ICE DATA OR ITS AFFILIATES AND BOFA\u00ae IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION LICENSED BY BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION AND ITS AFFILIATES (\u201cBOFA\u201d) AND MAY NOT BE USED WITHOUT BOFA\u2019S PRIOR WRITTEN APPROVAL. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL WARRANTIES AND REPRESENTATIONS, EXPRESS AND/OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, INCLUDING WITH REGARD TO THE INDICES, INDEX DATA AND ANY DATA INCLUDED IN, RELATED TO, OR DERIVED THEREFROM. NEITHER ICE DATA, NOR ITS AFFILIATES OR THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY PROVIDERS SHALL BE SUBJECT TO ANY DAMAGES OR LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO THE ADEQUACY, ACCURACY, TIMELINESS OR COMPLETENESS OF THE INDICES OR THE INDEX DATA OR ANY COMPONENT THEREOF. THE INDICES AND INDEX DATA AND ALL COMPONENTS THEREOF ARE PROVIDED ON AN \u201cAS IS\u201d BASIS AND YOUR USE IS AT YOUR OWN RISK. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DO NOT SPONSOR, ENDORSE, OR RECOMMEND FRED, OR ANY OF ITS PRODUCTS OR SERVICES.\n\nCopyright, 2023, ICE Data Indices. Reproduction of this data in any form is prohibited except with the prior written permission of ICE Data Indices.\n\nThe end of day Index values, Index returns, and Index statistics (\u201cTop Level Data\u201d) are being provided for your internal use only and you are not authorized or permitted to publish, distribute or otherwise furnish Top Level Data to any third-party without prior written approval of ICE Data.\nNeither ICE Data, its affiliates nor any of its third party suppliers shall have any liability for the accuracy or completeness of the Top Level Data furnished through FRED, or for delays, interruptions or omissions therein nor for any lost profits, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages.\nThe Top Level Data is not investment advice and a reference to a particular investment or security, a credit rating or any observation concerning a security or investment provided in the Top Level Data is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such investment or security or make any other investment decisions.\nYou shall not use any Indices as a reference index for the purpose of creating financial products (including but not limited to any exchange-traded fund or other passive index-tracking fund, or any other financial instrument whose objective or return is linked in any way to any Index) without prior written approval of ICE Data.\nICE Data, their affiliates or their third party suppliers have exclusive proprietary rights in the Top Level Data and any information and software received in connection therewith.\nYou shall not use or permit anyone to use the Top Level Data for any unlawful or unauthorized purpose.\nAccess to the Top Level Data is subject to termination in the event that any agreement between FRED and ICE Data terminates for any reason.\nICE Data may enforce its rights against you as the third-party beneficiary of the FRED Services Terms of Use, even though ICE Data is not a party to the FRED Services Terms of Use.\nThe FRED Services Terms of Use, including but limited to the limitation of liability, indemnity and disclaimer provisions, shall extend to third party suppliers..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily, Close ",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLC0A1CAAAEY",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "4.89",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in ICE BofA AAA US Corporate Index Effective Yield from the release ICE BofA Indices.",
            "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "WLCFLL",
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "Will the weekly dollar amount of loans made by the Federal Reserve under its liquidity and credit facilities have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WLCFLL once the data is published.",
            "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h41/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: Loans is the sum of \"Primary credit,\" \"Secondary credit,\" \"Seasonal credit,\" \"Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility,\" and \"Other credit extensions..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Millions of U.S. Dollars.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, As of Wednesday ",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WLCFLL",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "5142.0",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Assets: Liquidity and Credit Facilities: Loans: Wednesday Level from the release H.4.1 Factors Affecting Reserve Balances.",
            "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "DCOILBRENTEU",
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "Will the price of Brent crude oil have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILBRENTEU once the data is published.",
            "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: Definitions, Sources and Explanatory Notes (http://www.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/TblDefs/pet_pri_spt_tbldef2.asp).  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Dollars per Barrel.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily ",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILBRENTEU",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "76.23",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Crude Oil Prices: Brent - Europe from the release Spot Prices.",
            "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "WGS1YR",
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "Will the market yield on US treasury securities at 1-year constant maturity, quoted on an investment basis, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WGS1YR once the data is published.",
            "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: H.15 Statistical Release notes (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/default.htm) and the Treasury Yield Curve Methodology (https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/interest-rate-statistics/treasury-yield-curve-methodology).\n\nFor questions on the data, please contact the data source (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%). For questions on FRED functionality, please contact us here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/).</p>.  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, Ending Friday ",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WGS1YR",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "4.26",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 1-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis from the release H.15 Selected Interest Rates.",
            "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "BAMLHE00EHYIOAS",
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "Will the option-adjusted spread of the ICE BofA Euro High Yield Index, which tracks the performance of below investment grade corporate debt issued in the euro domestic or eurobond markets, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLHE00EHYIOAS once the data is published.",
            "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: This data represents the Option-Adjusted Spread (OAS) of the ICE BofA Euro High Yield Index tracks the performance of Euro denominated below investment grade corporate debt publicly issued in the euro domestic or eurobond markets. Qualifying securities must have a below investment grade rating (based on an average of Moody's, S&P, and Fitch). Qualifying securities must have at least one year remaining term to maturity, a fixed coupon schedule, and a minimum amount outstanding of Euro 100 million. Original issue zero coupon bonds, \"global\" securities (debt issued simultaneously in the eurobond and euro domestic markets), 144a securities and pay-in-kind securities, including toggle notes, qualify for inclusion in the Index. Callable perpetual securities qualify provided they are at least one year from the first call date. Fixed-to-floating rate securities also qualify provided they are callable within the fixed rate period and are at least one year from the last call prior to the date the bond transitions from a fixed to a floating rate security. Defaulted, warrant-bearing and euro legacy currency securities are excluded from the Index.\n\nICE BofA Explains the Construction Methodology of this series as:\nIndex constituents are capitalization-weighted based on their current amount outstanding. With the exception of U.S. mortgage pass-throughs and U.S. structured products (ABS, CMBS and CMOs), accrued interest is calculated assuming next-day settlement. Accrued interest for U.S. mortgage pass-through and U.S. structured products is calculated assuming same-day settlement. Cash flows from bond payments that are received during the month are retained in the index until\nthe end of the month and then are removed as part of the rebalancing. Cash does not earn any reinvestment income while it is held in the Index. The Index is rebalanced on the last calendar day of the month, based on information available up to and including the third business day before the last business day of the month. Issues that meet the qualifying criteria are included in the Index for the following month. Issues that no longer meet the criteria during the course of the month remain in the Index until the next month-end rebalancing at which point they are removed from the Index.\n\nThe ICE BofA OASs are the calculated spreads between a computed OAS index of all bonds in a given rating category and a spot Treasury curve. An OAS index is constructed using each constituent bond's OAS, weighted by market capitalization. When the last calendar day of the month takes place on the weekend, weekend observations will occur as a result of month ending accrued interest adjustments.\n\nCertain indices and index data included in FRED are the property of ICE Data Indices, LLC (\u201cICE DATA\u201d) and used under license. ICE\u00ae IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF ICE DATA OR ITS AFFILIATES AND BOFA\u00ae IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION LICENSED BY BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION AND ITS AFFILIATES (\u201cBOFA\u201d) AND MAY NOT BE USED WITHOUT BOFA\u2019S PRIOR WRITTEN APPROVAL. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL WARRANTIES AND REPRESENTATIONS, EXPRESS AND/OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, INCLUDING WITH REGARD TO THE INDICES, INDEX DATA AND ANY DATA INCLUDED IN, RELATED TO, OR DERIVED THEREFROM. NEITHER ICE DATA, NOR ITS AFFILIATES OR THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY PROVIDERS SHALL BE SUBJECT TO ANY DAMAGES OR LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO THE ADEQUACY, ACCURACY, TIMELINESS OR COMPLETENESS OF THE INDICES OR THE INDEX DATA OR ANY COMPONENT THEREOF. THE INDICES AND INDEX DATA AND ALL COMPONENTS THEREOF ARE PROVIDED ON AN \u201cAS IS\u201d BASIS AND YOUR USE IS AT YOUR OWN RISK. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DO NOT SPONSOR, ENDORSE, OR RECOMMEND FRED, OR ANY OF ITS PRODUCTS OR SERVICES.\n\nCopyright, 2023, ICE Data Indices. Reproduction of this data in any form is prohibited except with the prior written permission of ICE Data Indices.\n\nThe end of day Index values, Index returns, and Index statistics (\u201cTop Level Data\u201d) are being provided for your internal use only and you are not authorized or permitted to publish, distribute or otherwise furnish Top Level Data to any third-party without prior written approval of ICE Data.\nNeither ICE Data, its affiliates nor any of its third party suppliers shall have any liability for the accuracy or completeness of the Top Level Data furnished through FRED, or for delays, interruptions or omissions therein nor for any lost profits, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages.\nThe Top Level Data is not investment advice and a reference to a particular investment or security, a credit rating or any observation concerning a security or investment provided in the Top Level Data is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such investment or security or make any other investment decisions.\nYou shall not use any Indices as a reference index for the purpose of creating financial products (including but not limited to any exchange-traded fund or other passive index-tracking fund, or any other financial instrument whose objective or return is linked in any way to any Index) without prior written approval of ICE Data.\nICE Data, their affiliates or their third party suppliers have exclusive proprietary rights in the Top Level Data and any information and software received in connection therewith.\nYou shall not use or permit anyone to use the Top Level Data for any unlawful or unauthorized purpose.\nAccess to the Top Level Data is subject to termination in the event that any agreement between FRED and ICE Data terminates for any reason.\nICE Data may enforce its rights against you as the third-party beneficiary of the FRED Services Terms of Use, even though ICE Data is not a party to the FRED Services Terms of Use.\nThe FRED Services Terms of Use, including but limited to the limitation of liability, indemnity and disclaimer provisions, shall extend to third party suppliers..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily, Close ",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLHE00EHYIOAS",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "2.76",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in ICE BofA Euro High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread from the release ICE BofA Indices.",
            "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "WM1NS",
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "Will USD money supply as measured by M1 have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WM1NS once the data is published.",
            "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h6/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: announcements (https://www.federalreserve.gov/feeds/h6.html) and Technical Q&As (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/h6_technical_qa.htm) posted on December 17, 2020.\n\nFor questions on the data, please contact the data source (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h6/%). For questions on FRED functionality, please contact us here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/).</p>.  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Billions of Dollars.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, Ending Monday ",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WM1NS",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "18580.1",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in M1 from the release H.6 Money Stock Measures.",
            "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "WLODLL",
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "Will the weekly dollar amount of balances in the accounts of depository institutions in the Federal Reserve Banks have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WLODLL once the data is published.",
            "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h41/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: This account reflects the balances in the accounts that depository institutions have with the Federal Reserve Banks. These balances include reserve balances and service-related balances..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Millions of U.S. Dollars.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, As of Wednesday ",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WLODLL",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "3255407.0",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Liabilities and Capital: Liabilities: Deposits: Other Deposits Held by Depository Institutions: Wednesday Level from the release H.4.1 Factors Affecting Reserve Balances.",
            "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "WORAL",
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "Will the weekly dollar amount associated with Federal Reserve repurchase agreements have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WORAL once the data is published.",
            "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h41/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: Repurchase agreements reflect some of the Federal Reserve's temporary open market operations. Repurchase agreements are transactions in which securities are purchased from a primary dealer under an agreement to sell them back to the dealer on a specified date in the future. The difference between the purchase price and the repurchase price reflects an interest payment. The Federal Reserve may enter into repurchase agreements for up to 65 business days, but the typical maturity is between one and 14 days. Federal Reserve repurchase agreements supply reserve balances to the banking system for the length of the agreement. The Federal Reserve employs a naming convention for these transactions based on the perspective of the primary dealers: the dealers receive cash while the Federal Reserve receives the collateral..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Millions of U.S. Dollars.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, As of Wednesday ",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WORAL",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "100.0",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Assets: Other: Repurchase Agreements: Wednesday Level from the release H.4.1 Factors Affecting Reserve Balances.",
            "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "DGS1",
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "Will the market yield on US treasury securities at 1-year constant maturity, quoted on an investment basis, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS1 once the data is published.",
            "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: H.15 Statistical Release notes (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/default.htm) and the Treasury Yield Curve Methodology (https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/interest-rate-statistics/treasury-yield-curve-methodology).\n\nFor questions on the data, please contact the data source (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%). For questions on FRED functionality, please contact us here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/).</p>.  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily ",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS1",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "4.24",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 1-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis from the release H.15 Selected Interest Rates.",
            "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "REAINTRATREARAT10Y",
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "Will the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland's estimate for the 10-year real interest rate have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/REAINTRATREARAT10Y once the data is published.",
            "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland estimates the expected rate of inflation over the next 30 years along with the inflation risk premium, the real risk premium, and the real interest rate.\n\nTheir estimates are calculated with a model that uses Treasury yields, inflation data, inflation swaps, and survey-based measures of inflation expectations.\n\nFor more information, please visit the <a href=\"https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-expectations#background\">Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland<a/>..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Monthly ",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/REAINTRATREARAT10Y",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "2.03128216",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in 10-Year Real Interest Rate from the release Inflation Expectations.",
            "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "DAAA",
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "Will Moody's Seasoned Aaa Corporate Bond Yield have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DAAA once the data is published.",
            "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: These instruments are based on bonds with maturities 20 years and above. \n\n\u00a9 2017, Moody\u2019s Corporation, Moody\u2019s Investors Service, Inc., Moody\u2019s Analytics, Inc. and/or their licensors and affiliates (collectively, \u201cMoody\u2019s\u201d).  All rights reserved. Moody\u2019s ratings and other information (\u201cMoody\u2019s Information\u201d) are proprietary to Moody\u2019s and/or its licensors and are protected by copyright and other intellectual property laws.  Moody\u2019s Information is licensed to Client by Moody\u2019s.  MOODY\u2019S INFORMATION MAY NOT BE COPIED OR OTHERWISE REPRODUCED, REPACKAGED, FURTHER TRANSMITTED, TRANSFERRED, DISSEMINATED, REDISTRIBUTED OR RESOLD, OR STORED FOR SUBSEQUENT USE FOR ANY SUCH PURPOSE, IN WHOLE OR IN PART, IN ANY FORM OR MANNER OR BY ANY MEANS WHATSOEVER, BY ANY PERSON WITHOUT MOODY\u2019S PRIOR WRITTEN CONSENT..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily ",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DAAA",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "5.38",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Moody's Seasoned Aaa Corporate Bond Yield from the release Moody's Daily Corporate Bond Yield Averages.",
            "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "BAMLH0A2HYBEY",
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "Will the effective yield of securities with an investment grade rating of B in the ICE BofA US High Yield Master II Index, which tracks the performance of corporate debt below investment grade in the US domestic market, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLH0A2HYBEY once the data is published.",
            "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: This data represents the effective yield of the ICE BofA US Corporate B Index, a subset of the ICE BofA US High Yield Master II Index tracking the performance of US dollar denominated below investment grade rated corporate debt publicly issued in the US domestic market. This subset includes all securities with a given investment grade rating B. When the last calendar day of the month takes place on the weekend, weekend observations will occur as a result of month ending accrued interest adjustments.\n\nCertain indices and index data included in FRED are the property of ICE Data Indices, LLC (\u201cICE DATA\u201d) and used under license. ICE\u00ae IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF ICE DATA OR ITS AFFILIATES AND BOFA\u00ae IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION LICENSED BY BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION AND ITS AFFILIATES (\u201cBOFA\u201d) AND MAY NOT BE USED WITHOUT BOFA\u2019S PRIOR WRITTEN APPROVAL. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL WARRANTIES AND REPRESENTATIONS, EXPRESS AND/OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, INCLUDING WITH REGARD TO THE INDICES, INDEX DATA AND ANY DATA INCLUDED IN, RELATED TO, OR DERIVED THEREFROM. NEITHER ICE DATA, NOR ITS AFFILIATES OR THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY PROVIDERS SHALL BE SUBJECT TO ANY DAMAGES OR LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO THE ADEQUACY, ACCURACY, TIMELINESS OR COMPLETENESS OF THE INDICES OR THE INDEX DATA OR ANY COMPONENT THEREOF. THE INDICES AND INDEX DATA AND ALL COMPONENTS THEREOF ARE PROVIDED ON AN \u201cAS IS\u201d BASIS AND YOUR USE IS AT YOUR OWN RISK. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DO NOT SPONSOR, ENDORSE, OR RECOMMEND FRED, OR ANY OF ITS PRODUCTS OR SERVICES.\n\nCopyright, 2023, ICE Data Indices. Reproduction of this data in any form is prohibited except with the prior written permission of ICE Data Indices.\n\nThe end of day Index values, Index returns, and Index statistics (\u201cTop Level Data\u201d) are being provided for your internal use only and you are not authorized or permitted to publish, distribute or otherwise furnish Top Level Data to any third-party without prior written approval of ICE Data.\nNeither ICE Data, its affiliates nor any of its third party suppliers shall have any liability for the accuracy or completeness of the Top Level Data furnished through FRED, or for delays, interruptions or omissions therein nor for any lost profits, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages.\nThe Top Level Data is not investment advice and a reference to a particular investment or security, a credit rating or any observation concerning a security or investment provided in the Top Level Data is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such investment or security or make any other investment decisions.\nYou shall not use any Indices as a reference index for the purpose of creating financial products (including but not limited to any exchange-traded fund or other passive index-tracking fund, or any other financial instrument whose objective or return is linked in any way to any Index) without prior written approval of ICE Data.\nICE Data, their affiliates or their third party suppliers have exclusive proprietary rights in the Top Level Data and any information and software received in connection therewith.\nYou shall not use or permit anyone to use the Top Level Data for any unlawful or unauthorized purpose.\nAccess to the Top Level Data is subject to termination in the event that any agreement between FRED and ICE Data terminates for any reason.\nICE Data may enforce its rights against you as the third-party beneficiary of the FRED Services Terms of Use, even though ICE Data is not a party to the FRED Services Terms of Use.\nThe FRED Services Terms of Use, including but limited to the limitation of liability, indemnity and disclaimer provisions, shall extend to third party suppliers..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily, Close ",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLH0A2HYBEY",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "6.95",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in ICE BofA Single-B US High Yield Index Effective Yield from the release ICE BofA Indices.",
            "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "TOTBKCR",
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "Will the total dollar amount of bank credit held by all US commercial banks have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTBKCR once the data is published.",
            "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h8/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: data source (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h8/%). For questions on FRED functionality, please contact us here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/).</p>.  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Billions of U.S. Dollars.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, Ending Wednesday ",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTBKCR",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "18091.0146",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Bank Credit, All Commercial Banks from the release H.8 Assets and Liabilities of Commercial Banks in the United States.",
            "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "NFCILEVERAGE",
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "Will the Chicago Fed's National Financial Conditions Leverage Subindex have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NFCILEVERAGE once the data is published.",
            "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: The Chicago Fed\u2019s National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) provides a comprehensive weekly update on U.S. financial conditions in money markets, debt and equity markets, and the traditional and \u201cshadow\u201d banking systems. Source: http://www.chicagofed.org/webpages/publications/nfci/index.cfm.\n\n\"Positive values of the NFCI indicate financial conditions that are tighter than average, while negative values indicate financial conditions that are looser than average.\"\n\n\"The three subindexes of the NFCI (risk, credit and leverage) allow for a more detailed examination of the movements in the NFCI. Like the NFCI, each is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one over a sample period extending back to 1971. The risk subindex captures volatility and funding risk in the financial sector; the credit subindex is composed of measures of credit conditions; and the leverage subindex consists of debt and equity measures. Increasing risk, tighter credit conditions and declining leverage are consistent with tightening financial conditions. Thus, a positive value for an individual subindex indicates that the corresponding aspect of financial conditions is tighter than on average, while negative values indicate the opposite.\" Source: http://www.chicagofed.org/webpages/research/data/nfci/background.cfm.\n\nFor further information, please visit the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's NFCI website at http://www.chicagofed.org/webpages/publications/nfci/index.cfm..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Index.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, Ending Friday ",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NFCILEVERAGE",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "-0.66596",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Leverage Subindex from the release Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index.",
            "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV",
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "Will the total return of the ICE BofA US Corporate Index, which tracks the performance of corporate debt issued in the US domestic market, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV once the data is published.",
            "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: This data represents the ICE BofA US Corporate Index value, which tracks the performance of US dollar denominated investment grade rated corporate debt publicly issued in the US domestic market. To qualify for inclusion in the index, securities must have an investment grade rating (based on an average of Moody's, S&P, and Fitch) and an investment grade rated country of risk (based on an average of Moody's, S&P, and Fitch foreign currency long term sovereign debt ratings). Each security must have greater than 1 year of remaining maturity, a fixed coupon schedule, and a minimum amount outstanding of $250 million. Original issue zero coupon bonds, \"global\" securities (debt issued simultaneously in the eurobond and US\ndomestic bond markets), 144a securities and pay-in-kind securities, including toggle notes, qualify for inclusion in the Index. Callable perpetual securities qualify provided they are at least one year from the first call date. Fixed-to-floating rate securities also qualify provided they are callable within the fixed rate period and are at least one year from the last call prior to the date the bond transitions from a fixed to a floating rate security. DRD-eligible and defaulted securities are excluded from the Index.\n\nICE BofA Explains the Construction Methodology of this series as:\nIndex constituents are capitalization-weighted based on their current amount outstanding. With the exception of U.S. mortgage pass-throughs and U.S. structured products (ABS, CMBS and CMOs), accrued interest is calculated assuming next-day settlement. Accrued interest for U.S. mortgage pass-through and U.S. structured products is calculated assuming same-day settlement. Cash flows from bond payments that are received during the month are retained in the index until the end of the month and then are removed as part of the rebalancing. Cash does not earn any reinvestment income while it is held in the Index. The Index is rebalanced on the last calendar day of the month, based on information available up to and including the third business day before the last business day of the month. Issues that meet the qualifying criteria are included in the Index for the following month. Issues that no longer meet the criteria during the course of the month remain in the Index until the next month-end rebalancing at which point they are removed from the Index.\n\nWhen the last calendar day of the month takes place on the weekend, weekend observations will occur as a result of month ending accrued interest adjustments.\n\nCertain indices and index data included in FRED are the property of ICE Data Indices, LLC (\u201cICE DATA\u201d) and used under license. ICE\u00ae IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF ICE DATA OR ITS AFFILIATES AND BOFA\u00ae IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION LICENSED BY BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION AND ITS AFFILIATES (\u201cBOFA\u201d) AND MAY NOT BE USED WITHOUT BOFA\u2019S PRIOR WRITTEN APPROVAL. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL WARRANTIES AND REPRESENTATIONS, EXPRESS AND/OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, INCLUDING WITH REGARD TO THE INDICES, INDEX DATA AND ANY DATA INCLUDED IN, RELATED TO, OR DERIVED THEREFROM. NEITHER ICE DATA, NOR ITS AFFILIATES OR THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY PROVIDERS SHALL BE SUBJECT TO ANY DAMAGES OR LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO THE ADEQUACY, ACCURACY, TIMELINESS OR COMPLETENESS OF THE INDICES OR THE INDEX DATA OR ANY COMPONENT THEREOF. THE INDICES AND INDEX DATA AND ALL COMPONENTS THEREOF ARE PROVIDED ON AN \u201cAS IS\u201d BASIS AND YOUR USE IS AT YOUR OWN RISK. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DO NOT SPONSOR, ENDORSE, OR RECOMMEND FRED, OR ANY OF ITS PRODUCTS OR SERVICES.\n\nCopyright, 2023, ICE Data Indices. Reproduction of this data in any form is prohibited except with the prior written permission of ICE Data Indices.\n\nThe end of day Index values, Index returns, and Index statistics (\u201cTop Level Data\u201d) are being provided for your internal use only and you are not authorized or permitted to publish, distribute or otherwise furnish Top Level Data to any third-party without prior written approval of ICE Data.\nNeither ICE Data, its affiliates nor any of its third party suppliers shall have any liability for the accuracy or completeness of the Top Level Data furnished through FRED, or for delays, interruptions or omissions therein nor for any lost profits, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages.\nThe Top Level Data is not investment advice and a reference to a particular investment or security, a credit rating or any observation concerning a security or investment provided in the Top Level Data is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such investment or security or make any other investment decisions.\nYou shall not use any Indices as a reference index for the purpose of creating financial products (including but not limited to any exchange-traded fund or other passive index-tracking fund, or any other financial instrument whose objective or return is linked in any way to any Index) without prior written approval of ICE Data.\nICE Data, their affiliates or their third party suppliers have exclusive proprietary rights in the Top Level Data and any information and software received in connection therewith.\nYou shall not use or permit anyone to use the Top Level Data for any unlawful or unauthorized purpose.\nAccess to the Top Level Data is subject to termination in the event that any agreement between FRED and ICE Data terminates for any reason.\nICE Data may enforce its rights against you as the third-party beneficiary of the FRED Services Terms of Use, even though ICE Data is not a party to the FRED Services Terms of Use.\nThe FRED Services Terms of Use, including but limited to the limitation of liability, indemnity and disclaimer provisions, shall extend to third party suppliers..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Index.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily, Close ",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "3359.67",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in ICE BofA US Corporate Index Total Return Index Value from the release ICE BofA Indices.",
            "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "RPONTSYD",
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "Will the aggregated daily value of US Treasury securities repurchased overnight by the Federal Reserve in temporary open market operations  have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RPONTSYD once the data is published.",
            "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: This series is constructed as the aggregated daily amount value of the RP transactions reported by the New York Fed as part of the Temporary Open Market Operations.\n\nTemporary open market operations involve short-term repurchase and reverse repurchase agreements that are designed to temporarily add or drain reserves available to the banking system and influence day-to-day trading in the federal funds market.\n\nA repurchase agreement (known as repo or RP) is a transaction in which the New York Fed under the authorization and direction of the Federal Open Maker Committee buys a security from an eligible counterparty under an agreement to resell that security in the future. For these transactions, eligible securities are U.S. Treasury instruments, federal agency debt and the mortgage-backed securities issued or fully guaranteed by federal agencies..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Billions of US Dollars.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily ",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RPONTSYD",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Overnight Repurchase Agreements: Treasury Securities Purchased by the Federal Reserve in the Temporary Open Market Operations from the release Temporary Open Market Operations.",
            "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE",
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "Will the number of US software development job postings on Indeed have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE once the data is published.",
            "background": "The notes from the release: Indeed calculates the percentage change in seasonally-adjusted job postings since February 1, 2020, using a 7-day trailing average. February 1, 2020, is the pre-pandemic baseline. Indeed seasonally adjusts each series based on historical patterns in 2017, 2018, and 2019. Each series, including the national trend, occupational sectors, and sub-national geographies, is seasonally adjusted separately. Indeed switched to this new methodology in January 2021 and now reports all historical data using this new methodology. Historical numbers have been revised and may differ significantly from originally reported values. The new methodology applies a detrended seasonal adjustment factor to the percentage change in job postings.\r\n\r\nIndices are calculated for the U.S., Australia, Canada, Germany, Ireland, France, and the U.K. In addition for the U.S., indices are calculated for states, the largest metro areas by population.\r\n\r\nFor Frequently Asked Questions regarding Indeed Data, visit https://www.hiringlab.org/indeed-data-faq/.\r\n\r\nCopyrighted: Pre-approval required. Contact Indeed to request permission to use the data at their contact information at https://github.com/hiring-lab/data#readme.\r\n\r\nEnd Users are excluded of any warranty and liability on the part of Indeed for the accuracy of the Indeed Data. End Users will refrain from any external distribution of Indeed Data except in oral or written presentations, provided that such portions or derivations are incidental to and supportive of such presentations and, provided further that the End Users shall not distribute or disseminate in such presentations any amount of Indeed Data which could cause such presentations to be susceptible to use substantially as a source of or substitute for Indeed Data. End Users agree to credit Indeed as the source and owner of the Indeed Data when making it available to third parties in any permissible manner as well as in internal use. End Users agree to not sell or otherwise provide the Indeed Data obtained from Licensee to third parties..  The notes from the series: Indeed calculates the index change in seasonally-adjusted job postings since February 1, 2020, the pre-pandemic baseline. Indeed seasonally adjusts each series based on historical patterns in 2017, 2018, and 2019. Each series, including the national trend, occupational sectors, and sub-national geographies, is seasonally adjusted separately. Indeed switched to this new methodology in December 2022 and now reports all historical data using this new methodology. Historical numbers have been revised and may differ significantly from originally reported values. The new methodology applies a detrended seasonal adjustment factor to the index change in job postings. For more information, see Frequently Asked Questions (https://www.hiringlab.org/indeed-data-faq/) regarding Indeed Data.\n\nCopyrighted: Pre-approval required. Contact Indeed to request permission to use the data at their contact information provided here (https://github.com/hiring-lab/data#readme).\n\nEnd Users are excluded of any warranty and liability on the part of Indeed for the accuracy of the Indeed Data. End Users will refrain from any external distribution of Indeed Data except in oral or written presentations, provided that such portions or derivations are incidental to and supportive of such presentations and, provided further that the End Users shall not distribute or disseminate in such presentations any amount of Indeed Data which could cause such presentations to be susceptible to use substantially as a source of, or substitute for Indeed Data. End Users agree to credit Indeed as the source and owner of the Indeed Data when making it available to third parties in any permissible manner as well as in internal use. End Users agree to not sell or otherwise provide the Indeed Data obtained from Licensee to third parties..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Index Feb, 1 2020=100.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily, 7-Day ",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "65.76",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Software Development Job Postings on Indeed in the United States from the release Job Postings on Indeed.",
            "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "BAMLC0A4CBBB",
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "Will the option-adjusted spread of securities with an investment grade rating of BBB in the ICE BofA US Corporate Index, which tracks the performance of corporate debt issued in the US domestic market, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLC0A4CBBB once the data is published.",
            "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: This data represents the Option-Adjusted Spread (OAS) of the ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index, a subset of the ICE BofA US Corporate Master Index tracking the performance of US dollar denominated investment grade rated corporate debt publicly issued in the US domestic market. This subset includes all securities with a given investment grade rating BBB.\nThe ICE BofA OASs are the calculated spreads between a computed OAS index of all bonds in a given rating category and a spot Treasury curve. An OAS index is constructed using each constituent bond's OAS, weighted by market capitalization. When the last calendar day of the month takes place on the weekend, weekend observations will occur as a result of month ending accrued interest adjustments.\n\nCertain indices and index data included in FRED are the property of ICE Data Indices, LLC (\u201cICE DATA\u201d) and used under license. ICE\u00ae IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF ICE DATA OR ITS AFFILIATES AND BOFA\u00ae IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION LICENSED BY BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION AND ITS AFFILIATES (\u201cBOFA\u201d) AND MAY NOT BE USED WITHOUT BOFA\u2019S PRIOR WRITTEN APPROVAL. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL WARRANTIES AND REPRESENTATIONS, EXPRESS AND/OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, INCLUDING WITH REGARD TO THE INDICES, INDEX DATA AND ANY DATA INCLUDED IN, RELATED TO, OR DERIVED THEREFROM. NEITHER ICE DATA, NOR ITS AFFILIATES OR THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY PROVIDERS SHALL BE SUBJECT TO ANY DAMAGES OR LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO THE ADEQUACY, ACCURACY, TIMELINESS OR COMPLETENESS OF THE INDICES OR THE INDEX DATA OR ANY COMPONENT THEREOF. THE INDICES AND INDEX DATA AND ALL COMPONENTS THEREOF ARE PROVIDED ON AN \u201cAS IS\u201d BASIS AND YOUR USE IS AT YOUR OWN RISK. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DO NOT SPONSOR, ENDORSE, OR RECOMMEND FRED, OR ANY OF ITS PRODUCTS OR SERVICES.\n\nCopyright, 2023, ICE Data Indices. Reproduction of this data in any form is prohibited except with the prior written permission of ICE Data Indices.\n\nThe end of day Index values, Index returns, and Index statistics (\u201cTop Level Data\u201d) are being provided for your internal use only and you are not authorized or permitted to publish, distribute or otherwise furnish Top Level Data to any third-party without prior written approval of ICE Data.\nNeither ICE Data, its affiliates nor any of its third party suppliers shall have any liability for the accuracy or completeness of the Top Level Data furnished through FRED, or for delays, interruptions or omissions therein nor for any lost profits, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages.\nThe Top Level Data is not investment advice and a reference to a particular investment or security, a credit rating or any observation concerning a security or investment provided in the Top Level Data is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such investment or security or make any other investment decisions.\nYou shall not use any Indices as a reference index for the purpose of creating financial products (including but not limited to any exchange-traded fund or other passive index-tracking fund, or any other financial instrument whose objective or return is linked in any way to any Index) without prior written approval of ICE Data.\nICE Data, their affiliates or their third party suppliers have exclusive proprietary rights in the Top Level Data and any information and software received in connection therewith.\nYou shall not use or permit anyone to use the Top Level Data for any unlawful or unauthorized purpose.\nAccess to the Top Level Data is subject to termination in the event that any agreement between FRED and ICE Data terminates for any reason.\nICE Data may enforce its rights against you as the third-party beneficiary of the FRED Services Terms of Use, even though ICE Data is not a party to the FRED Services Terms of Use.\nThe FRED Services Terms of Use, including but limited to the limitation of liability, indemnity and disclaimer provisions, shall extend to third party suppliers..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily, Close ",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLC0A4CBBB",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "0.98",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread from the release ICE BofA Indices.",
            "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "DHHNGSP",
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "Will the spot price of Henry Hub natural gas have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DHHNGSP once the data is published.",
            "background": "The notes from the release: Prices are based on delivery at the Henry Hub in Louisiana. Official daily closing prices at 2:30 p.m. from the trading floor of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) for a specific delivery month..  The notes from the series: More information about this series can be found at http://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/TblDefs/ng_pri_fut_tbldef2.asp.  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Dollars per Million BTU.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily ",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DHHNGSP",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "3.48",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price from the release Natural Gas Spot and Futures Prices (NYMEX).",
            "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "BAA10Y",
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "Will Moody's Seasoned Baa Corporate Bond Yield compared to the 10-year Treasury yield have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAA10Y once the data is published.",
            "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: Series is calculated as the spread between Moody's Seasoned Baa Corporate Bond\u00a9 (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DBAA) and 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity (BC_10YEAR).\n\n\u00a92017, Moody's Corporation, Moody's Investors Service, Inc., Moody's Analytics, Inc. and/or their licensors and affiliates (collectively, \"Moody's\"). All rights reserved. Moody's ratings and other information (\"Moody's Information\") are proprietary to Moody's and/or its licensors and are protected by copyright and other intellectual property laws. Moody's Information is licensed to Client by Moody's. MOODY'S INFORMATION MAY NOT BE COPIED OR OTHERWISE REPRODUCED, REPACKAGED, FURTHER TRANSMITTED, TRANSFERRED, DISSEMINATED, REDISTRIBUTED OR RESOLD, OR STORED FOR SUBSEQUENT USE FOR ANY SUCH PURPOSE, IN WHOLE OR IN PART, IN ANY FORM OR MANNER OR BY ANY MEANS WHATSOEVER, BY ANY PERSON WITHOUT MOODY'S PRIOR WRITTEN CONSENT.\nStarting with the update on June 21, 2019, the Treasury bond data used in calculating interest rate spreads is obtained directly from the U.S. Treasury Department (https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield)..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily ",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAA10Y",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "1.44",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Moody's Seasoned Baa Corporate Bond Yield Relative to Yield on 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity from the release Interest Rate Spreads.",
            "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "CCSA",
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "Will the number of insured unemployment claims have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CCSA once the data is published.",
            "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: Continued claims, also referred to as insured unemployment, is the number of people who have already filed an initial claim and who have experienced a week of unemployment and then filed a continued claim to claim benefits for that week of unemployment. Continued claims data are based on the week of unemployment, not the week when the initial claim was filed..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Number.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, Ending Saturday ",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CCSA",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "1850000.0",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Continued Claims (Insured Unemployment) from the release Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report.",
            "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "DEXCHUS",
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "Will the spot exchange rate of Chinese yuan renminbi to US dollars have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DEXCHUS once the data is published.",
            "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h10/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: Noon buying rates in New York City for cable transfers payable in foreign currencies..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Chinese Yuan Renminbi to One U.S. Dollar.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily ",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DEXCHUS",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "7.253",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Chinese Yuan Renminbi to U.S. Dollar Spot Exchange Rate from the release H.10 Foreign Exchange Rates.",
            "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "OBMMIFHA30YF",
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "Will the 30-year fixed rate FHA mortgage index have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OBMMIFHA30YF once the data is published.",
            "background": "The notes from the release: Optimal Blue Mortgage Market Indices\u2122 (OBMMI\u2122) is calculated from actual locked rates with consumers across over one-third of all mortgage transactions nationwide. OBMMI includes multiple mortgage pricing indices developed around the most popular products and specific borrower and loan level attributes..  The notes from the series: This index includes rate locks from Federal Housing Authority loans.\n\nOptimal Blue Mortgage Market Indices (https://www2.optimalblue.com/obmmi/)\u2122 (OBMMI\u2122) is calculated from actual locked rates with consumers across over one-third of all mortgage transactions nationwide. OBMMI includes multiple mortgage pricing indices developed around the most popular products and specific borrower and loan level attributes.\n\nEach index is calculated as the average of all appropriate rate locks locked through the Optimal Blue product eligibility and pricing engine on a given day. More details about methodology and definitions are available here (https://www2.optimalblue.com/obmmi/)..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily ",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OBMMIFHA30YF",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "6.513",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in 30-Year Fixed Rate FHA Mortgage Index from the release Optimal Blue Mortgage Market Indices.",
            "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "WGS1YR",
                "RPONTSYD"
            ],
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "WGS1YR",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the market yield on US treasury securities at 1-year constant maturity, quoted on an investment basis, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WGS1YR once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: H.15 Statistical Release notes (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/default.htm) and the Treasury Yield Curve Methodology (https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/interest-rate-statistics/treasury-yield-curve-methodology).\n\nFor questions on the data, please contact the data source (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%). For questions on FRED functionality, please contact us here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/).</p>.  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, Ending Friday ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WGS1YR",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "4.26",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 1-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis from the release H.15 Selected Interest Rates.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "RPONTSYD",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the aggregated daily value of US Treasury securities repurchased overnight by the Federal Reserve in temporary open market operations  have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RPONTSYD once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: This series is constructed as the aggregated daily amount value of the RP transactions reported by the New York Fed as part of the Temporary Open Market Operations.\n\nTemporary open market operations involve short-term repurchase and reverse repurchase agreements that are designed to temporarily add or drain reserves available to the banking system and influence day-to-day trading in the federal funds market.\n\nA repurchase agreement (known as repo or RP) is a transaction in which the New York Fed under the authorization and direction of the Federal Open Maker Committee buys a security from an eligible counterparty under an agreement to resell that security in the future. For these transactions, eligible securities are U.S. Treasury instruments, federal agency debt and the mortgage-backed securities issued or fully guaranteed by federal agencies..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Billions of US Dollars.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RPONTSYD",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Overnight Repurchase Agreements: Treasury Securities Purchased by the Federal Reserve in the Temporary Open Market Operations from the release Temporary Open Market Operations.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "NFCIRISK",
                "WALCL"
            ],
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "NFCIRISK",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the Chicago Fed's National Financial Conditions Risk Subindex have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NFCIRISK once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: The Chicago Fed\u2019s National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) provides a comprehensive weekly update on U.S. financial conditions in money markets, debt and equity markets, and the traditional and \u201cshadow\u201d banking systems. Source: http://www.chicagofed.org/webpages/publications/nfci/index.cfm.\n\n\"Positive values of the NFCI indicate financial conditions that are tighter than average, while negative values indicate financial conditions that are looser than average.\"\n\n\"The three subindexes of the NFCI (risk, credit and leverage) allow for a more detailed examination of the movements in the NFCI. Like the NFCI, each is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one over a sample period extending back to 1971. The risk subindex captures volatility and funding risk in the financial sector; the credit subindex is composed of measures of credit conditions; and the leverage subindex consists of debt and equity measures. Increasing risk, tighter credit conditions and declining leverage are consistent with tightening financial conditions. Thus, a positive value for an individual subindex indicates that the corresponding aspect of financial conditions is tighter than on average, while negative values indicate the opposite.\" Source: http://www.chicagofed.org/webpages/research/data/nfci/background.cfm.\n\nFor further information, please visit the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's NFCI website at http://www.chicagofed.org/webpages/publications/nfci/index.cfm..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Index.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, Ending Friday ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NFCIRISK",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "-0.66349",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Risk Subindex from the release Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "WALCL",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the total dollar amount of assets held by all US Federal Reserve banks have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h41/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: N/A.  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Millions of U.S. Dollars.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, As of Wednesday ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "6813513.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Assets: Total Assets: Total Assets (Less Eliminations from Consolidation): Wednesday Level from the release H.4.1 Factors Affecting Reserve Balances.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "GASREGW",
                "DGS2"
            ],
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "GASREGW",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the average price of regular gas in the US have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: Weighted average based on sampling of approximately 900 retail outlets, 8:00AM Monday. The price represents self-service unless only full-service is available and includes all taxes. See (http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/wrgp/mogas_home_page.html) for further definitions. Regular Gasoline has an antiknock index (average of the research octane rating and the motor octane number) greater than or equal to 85 and less than 88. Octane requirements may vary by altitude..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Dollars per Gallon.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, Ending Monday ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "3.148",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in US Regular All Formulations Gas Price from the release Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "DGS2",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the market yield on US treasury securities at 2-year constant maturity, quoted on an investment basis, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2 once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: H.15 Statistical Release notes (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/default.htm) and the Treasury Yield Curve Methodology (https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/interest-rate-statistics/treasury-yield-curve-methodology).\n\nFor questions on the data, please contact the data source (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%). For questions on FRED functionality, please contact us here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/).</p>.  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "4.29",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 2-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis from the release H.15 Selected Interest Rates.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "D2WLTGAL",
                "BAMLC0A4CBBB"
            ],
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "D2WLTGAL",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the amount of money held by the US Treasury in its general account at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/D2WLTGAL once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h41/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: N/A.  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Millions of U.S. Dollars.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, As of Wednesday ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/D2WLTGAL",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "809154.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Liabilities and Capital: Liabilities: Deposits: U.S. Treasury General Account: Wednesday Level in Federal Reserve District 2: New York from the release H.4.1 Factors Affecting Reserve Balances.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "BAMLC0A4CBBB",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the option-adjusted spread of securities with an investment grade rating of BBB in the ICE BofA US Corporate Index, which tracks the performance of corporate debt issued in the US domestic market, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLC0A4CBBB once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: This data represents the Option-Adjusted Spread (OAS) of the ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index, a subset of the ICE BofA US Corporate Master Index tracking the performance of US dollar denominated investment grade rated corporate debt publicly issued in the US domestic market. This subset includes all securities with a given investment grade rating BBB.\nThe ICE BofA OASs are the calculated spreads between a computed OAS index of all bonds in a given rating category and a spot Treasury curve. An OAS index is constructed using each constituent bond's OAS, weighted by market capitalization. When the last calendar day of the month takes place on the weekend, weekend observations will occur as a result of month ending accrued interest adjustments.\n\nCertain indices and index data included in FRED are the property of ICE Data Indices, LLC (\u201cICE DATA\u201d) and used under license. ICE\u00ae IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF ICE DATA OR ITS AFFILIATES AND BOFA\u00ae IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION LICENSED BY BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION AND ITS AFFILIATES (\u201cBOFA\u201d) AND MAY NOT BE USED WITHOUT BOFA\u2019S PRIOR WRITTEN APPROVAL. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL WARRANTIES AND REPRESENTATIONS, EXPRESS AND/OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, INCLUDING WITH REGARD TO THE INDICES, INDEX DATA AND ANY DATA INCLUDED IN, RELATED TO, OR DERIVED THEREFROM. NEITHER ICE DATA, NOR ITS AFFILIATES OR THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY PROVIDERS SHALL BE SUBJECT TO ANY DAMAGES OR LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO THE ADEQUACY, ACCURACY, TIMELINESS OR COMPLETENESS OF THE INDICES OR THE INDEX DATA OR ANY COMPONENT THEREOF. THE INDICES AND INDEX DATA AND ALL COMPONENTS THEREOF ARE PROVIDED ON AN \u201cAS IS\u201d BASIS AND YOUR USE IS AT YOUR OWN RISK. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DO NOT SPONSOR, ENDORSE, OR RECOMMEND FRED, OR ANY OF ITS PRODUCTS OR SERVICES.\n\nCopyright, 2023, ICE Data Indices. Reproduction of this data in any form is prohibited except with the prior written permission of ICE Data Indices.\n\nThe end of day Index values, Index returns, and Index statistics (\u201cTop Level Data\u201d) are being provided for your internal use only and you are not authorized or permitted to publish, distribute or otherwise furnish Top Level Data to any third-party without prior written approval of ICE Data.\nNeither ICE Data, its affiliates nor any of its third party suppliers shall have any liability for the accuracy or completeness of the Top Level Data furnished through FRED, or for delays, interruptions or omissions therein nor for any lost profits, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages.\nThe Top Level Data is not investment advice and a reference to a particular investment or security, a credit rating or any observation concerning a security or investment provided in the Top Level Data is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such investment or security or make any other investment decisions.\nYou shall not use any Indices as a reference index for the purpose of creating financial products (including but not limited to any exchange-traded fund or other passive index-tracking fund, or any other financial instrument whose objective or return is linked in any way to any Index) without prior written approval of ICE Data.\nICE Data, their affiliates or their third party suppliers have exclusive proprietary rights in the Top Level Data and any information and software received in connection therewith.\nYou shall not use or permit anyone to use the Top Level Data for any unlawful or unauthorized purpose.\nAccess to the Top Level Data is subject to termination in the event that any agreement between FRED and ICE Data terminates for any reason.\nICE Data may enforce its rights against you as the third-party beneficiary of the FRED Services Terms of Use, even though ICE Data is not a party to the FRED Services Terms of Use.\nThe FRED Services Terms of Use, including but limited to the limitation of liability, indemnity and disclaimer provisions, shall extend to third party suppliers..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily, Close ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLC0A4CBBB",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.98",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread from the release ICE BofA Indices.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "DGS7",
                "TOTBKCR"
            ],
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "DGS7",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the market yield on US treasury securities at 7-year constant maturity, quoted on an investment basis, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS7 once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: H.15 Statistical Release notes (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/default.htm) and the Treasury Yield Curve Methodology (https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/interest-rate-statistics/treasury-yield-curve-methodology).\n\nFor questions on the data, please contact the data source (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%). For questions on FRED functionality, please contact us here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/).</p>.  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS7",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "4.48",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 7-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis from the release H.15 Selected Interest Rates.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "TOTBKCR",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the total dollar amount of bank credit held by all US commercial banks have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTBKCR once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h8/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: data source (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h8/%). For questions on FRED functionality, please contact us here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/).</p>.  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Billions of U.S. Dollars.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, Ending Wednesday ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTBKCR",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "18091.0146",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Bank Credit, All Commercial Banks from the release H.8 Assets and Liabilities of Commercial Banks in the United States.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "DGS10",
                "BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV"
            ],
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "DGS10",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the market yield on US treasury securities at 10-year constant maturity, quoted on an investment basis, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10 once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: H.15 Statistical Release (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/current/h15.pdf) notes and Treasury Yield Curve Methodology (https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/yieldmethod.aspx).\n\nFor questions on the data, please contact the data source (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%). For questions on FRED functionality, please contact us here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/).</p>.  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "4.55",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis from the release H.15 Selected Interest Rates.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the total return of the ICE BofA US Corporate Index, which tracks the performance of corporate debt issued in the US domestic market, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: This data represents the ICE BofA US Corporate Index value, which tracks the performance of US dollar denominated investment grade rated corporate debt publicly issued in the US domestic market. To qualify for inclusion in the index, securities must have an investment grade rating (based on an average of Moody's, S&P, and Fitch) and an investment grade rated country of risk (based on an average of Moody's, S&P, and Fitch foreign currency long term sovereign debt ratings). Each security must have greater than 1 year of remaining maturity, a fixed coupon schedule, and a minimum amount outstanding of $250 million. Original issue zero coupon bonds, \"global\" securities (debt issued simultaneously in the eurobond and US\ndomestic bond markets), 144a securities and pay-in-kind securities, including toggle notes, qualify for inclusion in the Index. Callable perpetual securities qualify provided they are at least one year from the first call date. Fixed-to-floating rate securities also qualify provided they are callable within the fixed rate period and are at least one year from the last call prior to the date the bond transitions from a fixed to a floating rate security. DRD-eligible and defaulted securities are excluded from the Index.\n\nICE BofA Explains the Construction Methodology of this series as:\nIndex constituents are capitalization-weighted based on their current amount outstanding. With the exception of U.S. mortgage pass-throughs and U.S. structured products (ABS, CMBS and CMOs), accrued interest is calculated assuming next-day settlement. Accrued interest for U.S. mortgage pass-through and U.S. structured products is calculated assuming same-day settlement. Cash flows from bond payments that are received during the month are retained in the index until the end of the month and then are removed as part of the rebalancing. Cash does not earn any reinvestment income while it is held in the Index. The Index is rebalanced on the last calendar day of the month, based on information available up to and including the third business day before the last business day of the month. Issues that meet the qualifying criteria are included in the Index for the following month. Issues that no longer meet the criteria during the course of the month remain in the Index until the next month-end rebalancing at which point they are removed from the Index.\n\nWhen the last calendar day of the month takes place on the weekend, weekend observations will occur as a result of month ending accrued interest adjustments.\n\nCertain indices and index data included in FRED are the property of ICE Data Indices, LLC (\u201cICE DATA\u201d) and used under license. ICE\u00ae IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF ICE DATA OR ITS AFFILIATES AND BOFA\u00ae IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION LICENSED BY BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION AND ITS AFFILIATES (\u201cBOFA\u201d) AND MAY NOT BE USED WITHOUT BOFA\u2019S PRIOR WRITTEN APPROVAL. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL WARRANTIES AND REPRESENTATIONS, EXPRESS AND/OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, INCLUDING WITH REGARD TO THE INDICES, INDEX DATA AND ANY DATA INCLUDED IN, RELATED TO, OR DERIVED THEREFROM. NEITHER ICE DATA, NOR ITS AFFILIATES OR THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY PROVIDERS SHALL BE SUBJECT TO ANY DAMAGES OR LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO THE ADEQUACY, ACCURACY, TIMELINESS OR COMPLETENESS OF THE INDICES OR THE INDEX DATA OR ANY COMPONENT THEREOF. THE INDICES AND INDEX DATA AND ALL COMPONENTS THEREOF ARE PROVIDED ON AN \u201cAS IS\u201d BASIS AND YOUR USE IS AT YOUR OWN RISK. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DO NOT SPONSOR, ENDORSE, OR RECOMMEND FRED, OR ANY OF ITS PRODUCTS OR SERVICES.\n\nCopyright, 2023, ICE Data Indices. Reproduction of this data in any form is prohibited except with the prior written permission of ICE Data Indices.\n\nThe end of day Index values, Index returns, and Index statistics (\u201cTop Level Data\u201d) are being provided for your internal use only and you are not authorized or permitted to publish, distribute or otherwise furnish Top Level Data to any third-party without prior written approval of ICE Data.\nNeither ICE Data, its affiliates nor any of its third party suppliers shall have any liability for the accuracy or completeness of the Top Level Data furnished through FRED, or for delays, interruptions or omissions therein nor for any lost profits, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages.\nThe Top Level Data is not investment advice and a reference to a particular investment or security, a credit rating or any observation concerning a security or investment provided in the Top Level Data is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such investment or security or make any other investment decisions.\nYou shall not use any Indices as a reference index for the purpose of creating financial products (including but not limited to any exchange-traded fund or other passive index-tracking fund, or any other financial instrument whose objective or return is linked in any way to any Index) without prior written approval of ICE Data.\nICE Data, their affiliates or their third party suppliers have exclusive proprietary rights in the Top Level Data and any information and software received in connection therewith.\nYou shall not use or permit anyone to use the Top Level Data for any unlawful or unauthorized purpose.\nAccess to the Top Level Data is subject to termination in the event that any agreement between FRED and ICE Data terminates for any reason.\nICE Data may enforce its rights against you as the third-party beneficiary of the FRED Services Terms of Use, even though ICE Data is not a party to the FRED Services Terms of Use.\nThe FRED Services Terms of Use, including but limited to the limitation of liability, indemnity and disclaimer provisions, shall extend to third party suppliers..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Index.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily, Close ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "3359.67",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in ICE BofA US Corporate Index Total Return Index Value from the release ICE BofA Indices.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "IORB",
                "NFCIRISK"
            ],
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "IORB",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the Federal Reserve's interest rate on reserve balances have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IORB once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/monetarypolicy/reserve-balances.htm\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: IOER (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IOER)) and the interest rate on required reserves (IORR (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IORR)) were replaced with a single rate, the interest rate on reserve balances (IORB (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IORB)). See the source's announcement (https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/bcreg20210602a.htm) for more details.\n\nThe interest rate on reserve balances (IORB rate) is the rate of interest that the Federal Reserve pays on balances maintained by or on behalf of eligible institutions in master accounts at Federal Reserve Banks. The interest rate is set by the Board of Governors, and it is an important tool of monetary policy.\n\nSee Policy Tools (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/reqresbalances.htm) and the IORB FAQs (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/iorb-faqs.htm) for more information.\n\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact us here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/).</p>.  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily, 7-Day ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IORB",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "4.4",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Interest Rate on Reserve Balances (IORB Rate) from the release Interest Rate on Reserve Balances.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "NFCIRISK",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the Chicago Fed's National Financial Conditions Risk Subindex have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NFCIRISK once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: The Chicago Fed\u2019s National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) provides a comprehensive weekly update on U.S. financial conditions in money markets, debt and equity markets, and the traditional and \u201cshadow\u201d banking systems. Source: http://www.chicagofed.org/webpages/publications/nfci/index.cfm.\n\n\"Positive values of the NFCI indicate financial conditions that are tighter than average, while negative values indicate financial conditions that are looser than average.\"\n\n\"The three subindexes of the NFCI (risk, credit and leverage) allow for a more detailed examination of the movements in the NFCI. Like the NFCI, each is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one over a sample period extending back to 1971. The risk subindex captures volatility and funding risk in the financial sector; the credit subindex is composed of measures of credit conditions; and the leverage subindex consists of debt and equity measures. Increasing risk, tighter credit conditions and declining leverage are consistent with tightening financial conditions. Thus, a positive value for an individual subindex indicates that the corresponding aspect of financial conditions is tighter than on average, while negative values indicate the opposite.\" Source: http://www.chicagofed.org/webpages/research/data/nfci/background.cfm.\n\nFor further information, please visit the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's NFCI website at http://www.chicagofed.org/webpages/publications/nfci/index.cfm..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Index.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, Ending Friday ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NFCIRISK",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "-0.66349",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Risk Subindex from the release Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "DGS6MO",
                "DFII5"
            ],
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "DGS6MO",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the market yield on US treasury securities at 6-month constant maturity, quoted on an investment basis, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS6MO once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: H.15 Statistical Release notes (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/default.htm) and the Treasury Yield Curve Methodology (https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/interest-rate-statistics/treasury-yield-curve-methodology).\n\nFor questions on the data, please contact the data source (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%). For questions on FRED functionality, please contact us here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/).</p>.  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS6MO",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "4.34",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 6-Month Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis from the release H.15 Selected Interest Rates.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "DFII5",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the market yield on US treasury securities at 5-year constant maturity, quoted on an investment basis and inflation-indexed, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFII5 once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: H.15 Statistical Release notes (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/default.htm) and the Treasury Yield Curve Methodology (https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/interest-rate-statistics/treasury-yield-curve-methodology).\n\nFor questions on the data, please contact the data source (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%). For questions on FRED functionality, please contact us here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/).</p>.  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFII5",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "1.75",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 5-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis, Inflation-Indexed from the release H.15 Selected Interest Rates.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "BAMLC0A2CAAEY",
                "WLODLL"
            ],
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "BAMLC0A2CAAEY",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the effective yield of securities with an investment grade rating of AA in the ICE BofA US Corporate Index, which tracks the performance of corporate debt issued in the US domestic market, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLC0A2CAAEY once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: This data represents the effective yield of the ICE BofA AA US Corporate Index, a subset of the ICE BofA US Corporate Master Index tracking the performance of US dollar denominated investment grade rated corporate debt publicly issued in the US domestic market. This subset includes all securities with a given investment grade rating AA. When the last calendar day of the month takes place on the weekend, weekend observations will occur as a result of month ending accrued interest adjustments.\n\nCertain indices and index data included in FRED are the property of ICE Data Indices, LLC (\u201cICE DATA\u201d) and used under license. ICE\u00ae IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF ICE DATA OR ITS AFFILIATES AND BOFA\u00ae IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION LICENSED BY BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION AND ITS AFFILIATES (\u201cBOFA\u201d) AND MAY NOT BE USED WITHOUT BOFA\u2019S PRIOR WRITTEN APPROVAL. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL WARRANTIES AND REPRESENTATIONS, EXPRESS AND/OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, INCLUDING WITH REGARD TO THE INDICES, INDEX DATA AND ANY DATA INCLUDED IN, RELATED TO, OR DERIVED THEREFROM. NEITHER ICE DATA, NOR ITS AFFILIATES OR THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY PROVIDERS SHALL BE SUBJECT TO ANY DAMAGES OR LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO THE ADEQUACY, ACCURACY, TIMELINESS OR COMPLETENESS OF THE INDICES OR THE INDEX DATA OR ANY COMPONENT THEREOF. THE INDICES AND INDEX DATA AND ALL COMPONENTS THEREOF ARE PROVIDED ON AN \u201cAS IS\u201d BASIS AND YOUR USE IS AT YOUR OWN RISK. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DO NOT SPONSOR, ENDORSE, OR RECOMMEND FRED, OR ANY OF ITS PRODUCTS OR SERVICES.\n\nCopyright, 2023, ICE Data Indices. Reproduction of this data in any form is prohibited except with the prior written permission of ICE Data Indices.\n\nThe end of day Index values, Index returns, and Index statistics (\u201cTop Level Data\u201d) are being provided for your internal use only and you are not authorized or permitted to publish, distribute or otherwise furnish Top Level Data to any third-party without prior written approval of ICE Data.\nNeither ICE Data, its affiliates nor any of its third party suppliers shall have any liability for the accuracy or completeness of the Top Level Data furnished through FRED, or for delays, interruptions or omissions therein nor for any lost profits, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages.\nThe Top Level Data is not investment advice and a reference to a particular investment or security, a credit rating or any observation concerning a security or investment provided in the Top Level Data is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such investment or security or make any other investment decisions.\nYou shall not use any Indices as a reference index for the purpose of creating financial products (including but not limited to any exchange-traded fund or other passive index-tracking fund, or any other financial instrument whose objective or return is linked in any way to any Index) without prior written approval of ICE Data.\nICE Data, their affiliates or their third party suppliers have exclusive proprietary rights in the Top Level Data and any information and software received in connection therewith.\nYou shall not use or permit anyone to use the Top Level Data for any unlawful or unauthorized purpose.\nAccess to the Top Level Data is subject to termination in the event that any agreement between FRED and ICE Data terminates for any reason.\nICE Data may enforce its rights against you as the third-party beneficiary of the FRED Services Terms of Use, even though ICE Data is not a party to the FRED Services Terms of Use.\nThe FRED Services Terms of Use, including but limited to the limitation of liability, indemnity and disclaimer provisions, shall extend to third party suppliers..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily, Close ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLC0A2CAAEY",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "4.97",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in ICE BofA AA US Corporate Index Effective Yield from the release ICE BofA Indices.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "WLODLL",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the weekly dollar amount of balances in the accounts of depository institutions in the Federal Reserve Banks have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WLODLL once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h41/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: This account reflects the balances in the accounts that depository institutions have with the Federal Reserve Banks. These balances include reserve balances and service-related balances..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Millions of U.S. Dollars.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, As of Wednesday ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WLODLL",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "3255407.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Liabilities and Capital: Liabilities: Deposits: Other Deposits Held by Depository Institutions: Wednesday Level from the release H.4.1 Factors Affecting Reserve Balances.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT",
                "IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE"
            ],
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the euro short-term rate (volume-weighted trimmed mean), a measure of the borrowing costs of banks in the euro area, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: The euro short-term rate (\u20acSTR) reflects the wholesale euro unsecured overnight borrowing costs of banks located in the euro area. The \u20acSTR is published on each TARGET2 business day based on transactions conducted and settled on the previous TARGET2 business day (the reporting date \u201cT\u201d) with a maturity date of T+1 which are deemed to have been executed at arm\u2019s length and thus reflect market rates in an unbiased way..  The notes from the series: The euro short-term rate (\u20acSTR) reflects the wholesale euro unsecured overnight borrowing costs of banks located in the euro area. The ECB publishes on its website the \u20acSTR at 08:00 CET on each TARGET2 business date. The \u20acSTR time series is updated on the ECB\u2019s Statistical Data Warehouse (SDW) shortly after the \u20acSTR publication.\n\nThe daily \u20acSTR is based on the transactions with overnight maturity that were traded and settled on the previous TARGET2 date. In SDW, the \u20acSTR series are indexed by time, where the time index reflects the trade date of the underlying transactions. For example, the observations on the rate, volume traded, etc. with time index 1 October 2019 reflect trading activity on that day, and correspond to the \u20acSTR published on 2 October 2019.\n\nFor further information refer to the <a href='https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/financial_markets_and_interest_rates/euro_short-term_rate/html/eurostr_overview.en.html'>Overview of \u20acSTR </>..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "2.666",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Euro Short-Term Rate: Volume-Weighted Trimmed Mean Rate from the release Euro Short Term Rate.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the number of US software development job postings on Indeed have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: Indeed calculates the percentage change in seasonally-adjusted job postings since February 1, 2020, using a 7-day trailing average. February 1, 2020, is the pre-pandemic baseline. Indeed seasonally adjusts each series based on historical patterns in 2017, 2018, and 2019. Each series, including the national trend, occupational sectors, and sub-national geographies, is seasonally adjusted separately. Indeed switched to this new methodology in January 2021 and now reports all historical data using this new methodology. Historical numbers have been revised and may differ significantly from originally reported values. The new methodology applies a detrended seasonal adjustment factor to the percentage change in job postings.\r\n\r\nIndices are calculated for the U.S., Australia, Canada, Germany, Ireland, France, and the U.K. In addition for the U.S., indices are calculated for states, the largest metro areas by population.\r\n\r\nFor Frequently Asked Questions regarding Indeed Data, visit https://www.hiringlab.org/indeed-data-faq/.\r\n\r\nCopyrighted: Pre-approval required. Contact Indeed to request permission to use the data at their contact information at https://github.com/hiring-lab/data#readme.\r\n\r\nEnd Users are excluded of any warranty and liability on the part of Indeed for the accuracy of the Indeed Data. End Users will refrain from any external distribution of Indeed Data except in oral or written presentations, provided that such portions or derivations are incidental to and supportive of such presentations and, provided further that the End Users shall not distribute or disseminate in such presentations any amount of Indeed Data which could cause such presentations to be susceptible to use substantially as a source of or substitute for Indeed Data. End Users agree to credit Indeed as the source and owner of the Indeed Data when making it available to third parties in any permissible manner as well as in internal use. End Users agree to not sell or otherwise provide the Indeed Data obtained from Licensee to third parties..  The notes from the series: Indeed calculates the index change in seasonally-adjusted job postings since February 1, 2020, the pre-pandemic baseline. Indeed seasonally adjusts each series based on historical patterns in 2017, 2018, and 2019. Each series, including the national trend, occupational sectors, and sub-national geographies, is seasonally adjusted separately. Indeed switched to this new methodology in December 2022 and now reports all historical data using this new methodology. Historical numbers have been revised and may differ significantly from originally reported values. The new methodology applies a detrended seasonal adjustment factor to the index change in job postings. For more information, see Frequently Asked Questions (https://www.hiringlab.org/indeed-data-faq/) regarding Indeed Data.\n\nCopyrighted: Pre-approval required. Contact Indeed to request permission to use the data at their contact information provided here (https://github.com/hiring-lab/data#readme).\n\nEnd Users are excluded of any warranty and liability on the part of Indeed for the accuracy of the Indeed Data. End Users will refrain from any external distribution of Indeed Data except in oral or written presentations, provided that such portions or derivations are incidental to and supportive of such presentations and, provided further that the End Users shall not distribute or disseminate in such presentations any amount of Indeed Data which could cause such presentations to be susceptible to use substantially as a source of, or substitute for Indeed Data. End Users agree to credit Indeed as the source and owner of the Indeed Data when making it available to third parties in any permissible manner as well as in internal use. End Users agree to not sell or otherwise provide the Indeed Data obtained from Licensee to third parties..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Index Feb, 1 2020=100.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily, 7-Day ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "65.76",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Software Development Job Postings on Indeed in the United States from the release Job Postings on Indeed.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "CASACBW027SBOG",
                "DGS1"
            ],
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "CASACBW027SBOG",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the cash assets of all commercial US banks have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CASACBW027SBOG once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h8/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: data source (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h8/%). For questions on FRED functionality, please contact us here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/).</p>.  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Billions of U.S. Dollars.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, Ending Wednesday ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CASACBW027SBOG",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "3272.9132",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Cash Assets, All Commercial Banks from the release H.8 Assets and Liabilities of Commercial Banks in the United States.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "DGS1",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the market yield on US treasury securities at 1-year constant maturity, quoted on an investment basis, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS1 once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: H.15 Statistical Release notes (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/default.htm) and the Treasury Yield Curve Methodology (https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/interest-rate-statistics/treasury-yield-curve-methodology).\n\nFor questions on the data, please contact the data source (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%). For questions on FRED functionality, please contact us here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/).</p>.  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS1",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "4.24",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 1-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis from the release H.15 Selected Interest Rates.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "WRBWFRBL",
                "DGS6MO"
            ],
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "WRBWFRBL",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the total dollar amount of reserve balances held with Federal Reverse Banks have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WRBWFRBL once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h41/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: Reserve balances with Federal Reserve Banks are the difference between \"total factors supplying reserve funds\" and \"total factors, other than reserve balances, absorbing reserve funds.\" This item includes balances at the Federal Reserve of all depository institutions that are used to satisfy reserve requirements and balances held in excess of balance requirements. It excludes reserves held in the form of cash in bank vaults, and excludes service-related deposits..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Millions of U.S. Dollars.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, As of Wednesday ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WRBWFRBL",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "3255407.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Liabilities and Capital: Other Factors Draining Reserve Balances: Reserve Balances with Federal Reserve Banks: Wednesday Level from the release H.4.1 Factors Affecting Reserve Balances.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "DGS6MO",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the market yield on US treasury securities at 6-month constant maturity, quoted on an investment basis, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS6MO once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: H.15 Statistical Release notes (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/default.htm) and the Treasury Yield Curve Methodology (https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/interest-rate-statistics/treasury-yield-curve-methodology).\n\nFor questions on the data, please contact the data source (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%). For questions on FRED functionality, please contact us here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/).</p>.  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS6MO",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "4.34",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 6-Month Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis from the release H.15 Selected Interest Rates.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "NIKKEI225",
                "WRBWFRBL"
            ],
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "NIKKEI225",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the Nikkei 225 Stock Average, which represent the daily index value at market close, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NIKKEI225 once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: The observations for the Nikkei Stock Average, Nikkei 225 represent the daily index value at market close.\n\nNikkei 225 is the major stock market index comprising of 225 highly liquid stocks of the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE).\n\nFor in depth information, visit here (http://indexes.nikkei.co.jp/nkave/archives/faq/faq_nikkei_stock_average_en.pdf).\n\nCopyright, 2016, Nikkei Inc. Reprinted with permission.\n\nDownloading the data for research reports or research projects is permitted.\n\nHowever, if you wish to redistribute the data itself or research reports (information with Nikkei data) to the third parties/persons, the user shall report back to the Nikkei, Inc for permission..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Index.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily, Close ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NIKKEI225",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "39164.61",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Nikkei Stock Average, Nikkei 225 from the release Nikkei Indexes.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "WRBWFRBL",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the total dollar amount of reserve balances held with Federal Reverse Banks have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WRBWFRBL once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h41/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: Reserve balances with Federal Reserve Banks are the difference between \"total factors supplying reserve funds\" and \"total factors, other than reserve balances, absorbing reserve funds.\" This item includes balances at the Federal Reserve of all depository institutions that are used to satisfy reserve requirements and balances held in excess of balance requirements. It excludes reserves held in the form of cash in bank vaults, and excludes service-related deposits..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Millions of U.S. Dollars.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, As of Wednesday ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WRBWFRBL",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "3255407.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Liabilities and Capital: Other Factors Draining Reserve Balances: Reserve Balances with Federal Reserve Banks: Wednesday Level from the release H.4.1 Factors Affecting Reserve Balances.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "D2WLTGAL",
                "WALCL"
            ],
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "D2WLTGAL",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the amount of money held by the US Treasury in its general account at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/D2WLTGAL once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h41/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: N/A.  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Millions of U.S. Dollars.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, As of Wednesday ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/D2WLTGAL",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "809154.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Liabilities and Capital: Liabilities: Deposits: U.S. Treasury General Account: Wednesday Level in Federal Reserve District 2: New York from the release H.4.1 Factors Affecting Reserve Balances.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "WALCL",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the total dollar amount of assets held by all US Federal Reserve banks have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h41/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: N/A.  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Millions of U.S. Dollars.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, As of Wednesday ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "6813513.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Assets: Total Assets: Total Assets (Less Eliminations from Consolidation): Wednesday Level from the release H.4.1 Factors Affecting Reserve Balances.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "WLCFLL",
                "DAAA"
            ],
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "WLCFLL",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the weekly dollar amount of loans made by the Federal Reserve under its liquidity and credit facilities have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WLCFLL once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h41/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: Loans is the sum of \"Primary credit,\" \"Secondary credit,\" \"Seasonal credit,\" \"Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility,\" and \"Other credit extensions..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Millions of U.S. Dollars.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, As of Wednesday ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WLCFLL",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "5142.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Assets: Liquidity and Credit Facilities: Loans: Wednesday Level from the release H.4.1 Factors Affecting Reserve Balances.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "DAAA",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will Moody's Seasoned Aaa Corporate Bond Yield have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DAAA once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: These instruments are based on bonds with maturities 20 years and above. \n\n\u00a9 2017, Moody\u2019s Corporation, Moody\u2019s Investors Service, Inc., Moody\u2019s Analytics, Inc. and/or their licensors and affiliates (collectively, \u201cMoody\u2019s\u201d).  All rights reserved. Moody\u2019s ratings and other information (\u201cMoody\u2019s Information\u201d) are proprietary to Moody\u2019s and/or its licensors and are protected by copyright and other intellectual property laws.  Moody\u2019s Information is licensed to Client by Moody\u2019s.  MOODY\u2019S INFORMATION MAY NOT BE COPIED OR OTHERWISE REPRODUCED, REPACKAGED, FURTHER TRANSMITTED, TRANSFERRED, DISSEMINATED, REDISTRIBUTED OR RESOLD, OR STORED FOR SUBSEQUENT USE FOR ANY SUCH PURPOSE, IN WHOLE OR IN PART, IN ANY FORM OR MANNER OR BY ANY MEANS WHATSOEVER, BY ANY PERSON WITHOUT MOODY\u2019S PRIOR WRITTEN CONSENT..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DAAA",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "5.38",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Moody's Seasoned Aaa Corporate Bond Yield from the release Moody's Daily Corporate Bond Yield Averages.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "WLRRAL",
                "CASACBW027SBOG"
            ],
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "WLRRAL",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the weekly dollar amount associated with Federal Reserve reverse repurchase agreements have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WLRRAL once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h41/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: Reverse repurchase agreements are transactions in which securities are sold to a set of counterparties under an agreement to buy them back from the same party on a specified date at the same price plus interest. Reverse repurchase agreements may be conducted with foreign official and international accounts as a service to the holders of these accounts. All other reverse repurchase agreements, including transactions with primary dealers and a set of eligible money market funds, are open market operations intended to manage the supply of reserve balances; reverse repurchase agreements absorb reserve balances from the banking system for the length of the agreement. As with repurchase agreements, the naming convention used here reflects the transaction from the counterparties' perspective; the Federal Reserve receives cash in a reverse repurchase agreement and provides collateral to the counterparties..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Millions of U.S. Dollars.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, As of Wednesday ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WLRRAL",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "452467.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Liabilities and Capital: Liabilities: Reverse Repurchase Agreements: Wednesday Level from the release H.4.1 Factors Affecting Reserve Balances.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "CASACBW027SBOG",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the cash assets of all commercial US banks have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CASACBW027SBOG once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h8/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: data source (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h8/%). For questions on FRED functionality, please contact us here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/).</p>.  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Billions of U.S. Dollars.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, Ending Wednesday ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CASACBW027SBOG",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "3272.9132",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Cash Assets, All Commercial Banks from the release H.8 Assets and Liabilities of Commercial Banks in the United States.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "RIFSPPFAAD90NB",
                "RESPPLLOPNWW"
            ],
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "RIFSPPFAAD90NB",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the 90-day AA Financial Commercial Paper Interest Rate have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RIFSPPFAAD90NB once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/cp/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: For more information, please see http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/cp/about.htm..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RIFSPPFAAD90NB",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "4.39",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in 90-Day AA Financial Commercial Paper Interest Rate from the release Commercial Paper.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "RESPPLLOPNWW",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the total weekly remittance of earnings by the Federal Reserve to the US Treasury have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RESPPLLOPNWW once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h41/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: N/A.  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Millions of U.S. Dollars.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, As of Wednesday ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RESPPLLOPNWW",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "-222569.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Liabilities and Capital: Liabilities: Earnings Remittances Due to the U.S. Treasury: Wednesday Level from the release H.4.1 Factors Affecting Reserve Balances.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "BAMLH0A0HYM2",
                "WLCFLL"
            ],
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "BAMLH0A0HYM2",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the option-adjusted spread for the ICE BofA US High Yield Index, which tracks the performance of corporate debt denominated below investment grade in the US domestic market, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLH0A0HYM2 once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: The ICE BofA Option-Adjusted Spreads (OASs) are the calculated spreads between a computed OAS index of all bonds in a given rating category and a spot Treasury curve. An OAS index is constructed using each constituent bond's OAS, weighted by market capitalization. The ICE BofA High Yield Master II OAS uses an index of bonds that are below investment grade (those rated BB or below).\nThis data represents the ICE BofA US High Yield Index value, which tracks the performance of US dollar denominated below investment grade rated corporate debt publicly issued in the US domestic market. To qualify for inclusion in the index, securities must have a below investment grade rating (based on an average of Moody's, S&P, and Fitch) and an investment grade rated country of risk (based on an average of Moody's, S&P, and Fitch foreign currency long term sovereign debt ratings). Each security must have greater than 1 year of remaining maturity, a fixed coupon schedule, and a minimum amount outstanding of $100 million. Original issue zero coupon bonds, \"global\" securities (debt issued simultaneously in the eurobond and US domestic bond markets), 144a securities and pay-in-kind securities, including toggle notes, qualify for inclusion in the Index. Callable perpetual securities qualify provided they are at least one year from the first call date. Fixed-to-floating rate securities also qualify provided they are callable within the fixed rate period and are at least one year from the last call prior to the date the bond transitions from a fixed to a floating rate security. DRD-eligible and defaulted securities are excluded from the Index.\n\nICE BofA Explains the Construction Methodology of this series as:\nIndex constituents are capitalization-weighted based on their current amount outstanding. With the exception of U.S. mortgage pass-throughs and U.S. structured products (ABS, CMBS and CMOs), accrued interest is calculated assuming next-day settlement. Accrued interest for U.S. mortgage pass-through and U.S. structured products is calculated assuming same-day settlement. Cash flows from bond payments that are received during the month are retained in the index until the end of the month and then are removed as part of the rebalancing. Cash does not earn any reinvestment income while it is held in the Index. The Index is rebalanced on the last calendar day of the month, based on information available up to and including the third business day before the last business day of the month. Issues that meet the qualifying criteria are included in the Index for the following month. Issues that no longer meet the criteria during the course of the month remain in the Index until the next month-end rebalancing at which point they are removed from the Index.\n\nWhen the last calendar day of the month takes place on the weekend, weekend observations will occur as a result of month ending accrued interest adjustments.\n\nCertain indices and index data included in FRED are the property of ICE Data Indices, LLC (\u201cICE DATA\u201d) and used under license. ICE\u00ae IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF ICE DATA OR ITS AFFILIATES AND BOFA\u00ae IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION LICENSED BY BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION AND ITS AFFILIATES (\u201cBOFA\u201d) AND MAY NOT BE USED WITHOUT BOFA\u2019S PRIOR WRITTEN APPROVAL. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL WARRANTIES AND REPRESENTATIONS, EXPRESS AND/OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, INCLUDING WITH REGARD TO THE INDICES, INDEX DATA AND ANY DATA INCLUDED IN, RELATED TO, OR DERIVED THEREFROM. NEITHER ICE DATA, NOR ITS AFFILIATES OR THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY PROVIDERS SHALL BE SUBJECT TO ANY DAMAGES OR LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO THE ADEQUACY, ACCURACY, TIMELINESS OR COMPLETENESS OF THE INDICES OR THE INDEX DATA OR ANY COMPONENT THEREOF. THE INDICES AND INDEX DATA AND ALL COMPONENTS THEREOF ARE PROVIDED ON AN \u201cAS IS\u201d BASIS AND YOUR USE IS AT YOUR OWN RISK. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DO NOT SPONSOR, ENDORSE, OR RECOMMEND FRED, OR ANY OF ITS PRODUCTS OR SERVICES.\n\nCopyright, 2023, ICE Data Indices. Reproduction of this data in any form is prohibited except with the prior written permission of ICE Data Indices.\n\nThe end of day Index values, Index returns, and Index statistics (\u201cTop Level Data\u201d) are being provided for your internal use only and you are not authorized or permitted to publish, distribute or otherwise furnish Top Level Data to any third-party without prior written approval of ICE Data.\nNeither ICE Data, its affiliates nor any of its third party suppliers shall have any liability for the accuracy or completeness of the Top Level Data furnished through FRED, or for delays, interruptions or omissions therein nor for any lost profits, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages.\nThe Top Level Data is not investment advice and a reference to a particular investment or security, a credit rating or any observation concerning a security or investment provided in the Top Level Data is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such investment or security or make any other investment decisions.\nYou shall not use any Indices as a reference index for the purpose of creating financial products (including but not limited to any exchange-traded fund or other passive index-tracking fund, or any other financial instrument whose objective or return is linked in any way to any Index) without prior written approval of ICE Data.\nICE Data, their affiliates or their third party suppliers have exclusive proprietary rights in the Top Level Data and any information and software received in connection therewith.\nYou shall not use or permit anyone to use the Top Level Data for any unlawful or unauthorized purpose.\nAccess to the Top Level Data is subject to termination in the event that any agreement between FRED and ICE Data terminates for any reason.\nICE Data may enforce its rights against you as the third-party beneficiary of the FRED Services Terms of Use, even though ICE Data is not a party to the FRED Services Terms of Use.\nThe FRED Services Terms of Use, including but limited to the limitation of liability, indemnity and disclaimer provisions, shall extend to third party suppliers..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily, Close ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLH0A0HYM2",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "2.62",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread from the release ICE BofA Indices.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "WLCFLL",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the weekly dollar amount of loans made by the Federal Reserve under its liquidity and credit facilities have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WLCFLL once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h41/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: Loans is the sum of \"Primary credit,\" \"Secondary credit,\" \"Seasonal credit,\" \"Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility,\" and \"Other credit extensions..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Millions of U.S. Dollars.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, As of Wednesday ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WLCFLL",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "5142.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Assets: Liquidity and Credit Facilities: Loans: Wednesday Level from the release H.4.1 Factors Affecting Reserve Balances.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "GASREGW",
                "DFF"
            ],
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "GASREGW",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the average price of regular gas in the US have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: Weighted average based on sampling of approximately 900 retail outlets, 8:00AM Monday. The price represents self-service unless only full-service is available and includes all taxes. See (http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/wrgp/mogas_home_page.html) for further definitions. Regular Gasoline has an antiknock index (average of the research octane rating and the motor octane number) greater than or equal to 85 and less than 88. Octane requirements may vary by altitude..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Dollars per Gallon.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, Ending Monday ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "3.148",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in US Regular All Formulations Gas Price from the release Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "DFF",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the effective federal funds rate (interest rate) have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFF once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series:  Daily Federal Funds Rate from 1928-1954 (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/categories/33951).\n\nThe federal funds rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions trade federal funds (balances held at Federal Reserve Banks) with each other overnight. When a depository institution has surplus balances in its reserve account, it lends to other banks in need of larger balances. In simpler terms, a bank with excess cash, which is often referred to as liquidity, will lend to another bank that needs to quickly raise liquidity. (1) The rate that the borrowing institution pays to the lending institution is determined between the two banks; the weighted average rate for all of these types of negotiations is called the effective federal funds rate.(2) The effective federal funds rate is essentially determined by the market but is influenced by the Federal Reserve through open market operations to reach the federal funds rate target.(2)\n\nThe Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets eight times a year to determine the federal funds target rate. As previously stated, this rate influences the effective federal funds rate through open market operations or by buying and selling of government bonds (government debt).(2) More specifically, the Federal Reserve decreases liquidity by selling government bonds, thereby raising the federal funds rate because banks have less liquidity to trade with other banks. Similarly, the Federal Reserve can increase liquidity by buying government bonds, decreasing the federal funds rate because banks have excess liquidity for trade. Whether the Federal Reserve wants to buy or sell bonds depends on the state of the economy. If the FOMC believes the economy is growing too fast and inflation pressures are inconsistent with the dual mandate of the Federal Reserve, the Committee may set a higher federal funds rate target to temper economic activity. In the opposing scenario, the FOMC may set a lower federal funds rate target to spur greater economic activity. Therefore, the FOMC must observe the current state of the economy to determine the best course of monetary policy that will maximize economic growth while adhering to the dual mandate set forth by Congress. In making its monetary policy decisions, the FOMC considers a wealth of economic data, such as: trends in prices and wages, employment, consumer spending and income, business investments, and foreign exchange markets.\n\nThe federal funds rate is the central interest rate in the U.S. financial market. It influences other interest rates such as the prime rate, which is the rate banks charge their customers with higher credit ratings. Additionally, the federal funds rate indirectly influences longer- term interest rates such as mortgages, loans, and savings, all of which are very important to consumer wealth and confidence.(2)\n\nReferences\n(1) Federal Reserve Bank of New York. \"Federal funds.\" Fedpoints, August 2007.\n(2) Monetary Policy (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy.htm), Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.\n\nFor questions on the data, please contact the data source (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%). For questions on FRED functionality, please contact us here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/).</p>.  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily, 7-Day ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFF",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "4.33",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Federal Funds Effective Rate from the release H.15 Selected Interest Rates.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "NFCIRISK",
                "DGS1"
            ],
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "NFCIRISK",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the Chicago Fed's National Financial Conditions Risk Subindex have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NFCIRISK once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: The Chicago Fed\u2019s National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) provides a comprehensive weekly update on U.S. financial conditions in money markets, debt and equity markets, and the traditional and \u201cshadow\u201d banking systems. Source: http://www.chicagofed.org/webpages/publications/nfci/index.cfm.\n\n\"Positive values of the NFCI indicate financial conditions that are tighter than average, while negative values indicate financial conditions that are looser than average.\"\n\n\"The three subindexes of the NFCI (risk, credit and leverage) allow for a more detailed examination of the movements in the NFCI. Like the NFCI, each is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one over a sample period extending back to 1971. The risk subindex captures volatility and funding risk in the financial sector; the credit subindex is composed of measures of credit conditions; and the leverage subindex consists of debt and equity measures. Increasing risk, tighter credit conditions and declining leverage are consistent with tightening financial conditions. Thus, a positive value for an individual subindex indicates that the corresponding aspect of financial conditions is tighter than on average, while negative values indicate the opposite.\" Source: http://www.chicagofed.org/webpages/research/data/nfci/background.cfm.\n\nFor further information, please visit the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's NFCI website at http://www.chicagofed.org/webpages/publications/nfci/index.cfm..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Index.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, Ending Friday ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NFCIRISK",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "-0.66349",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Risk Subindex from the release Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "DGS1",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the market yield on US treasury securities at 1-year constant maturity, quoted on an investment basis, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS1 once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: H.15 Statistical Release notes (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/default.htm) and the Treasury Yield Curve Methodology (https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/interest-rate-statistics/treasury-yield-curve-methodology).\n\nFor questions on the data, please contact the data source (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%). For questions on FRED functionality, please contact us here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/).</p>.  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS1",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "4.24",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 1-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis from the release H.15 Selected Interest Rates.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT",
                "DCOILBRENTEU"
            ],
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the euro short-term rate (volume-weighted trimmed mean), a measure of the borrowing costs of banks in the euro area, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: The euro short-term rate (\u20acSTR) reflects the wholesale euro unsecured overnight borrowing costs of banks located in the euro area. The \u20acSTR is published on each TARGET2 business day based on transactions conducted and settled on the previous TARGET2 business day (the reporting date \u201cT\u201d) with a maturity date of T+1 which are deemed to have been executed at arm\u2019s length and thus reflect market rates in an unbiased way..  The notes from the series: The euro short-term rate (\u20acSTR) reflects the wholesale euro unsecured overnight borrowing costs of banks located in the euro area. The ECB publishes on its website the \u20acSTR at 08:00 CET on each TARGET2 business date. The \u20acSTR time series is updated on the ECB\u2019s Statistical Data Warehouse (SDW) shortly after the \u20acSTR publication.\n\nThe daily \u20acSTR is based on the transactions with overnight maturity that were traded and settled on the previous TARGET2 date. In SDW, the \u20acSTR series are indexed by time, where the time index reflects the trade date of the underlying transactions. For example, the observations on the rate, volume traded, etc. with time index 1 October 2019 reflect trading activity on that day, and correspond to the \u20acSTR published on 2 October 2019.\n\nFor further information refer to the <a href='https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/financial_markets_and_interest_rates/euro_short-term_rate/html/eurostr_overview.en.html'>Overview of \u20acSTR </>..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "2.666",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Euro Short-Term Rate: Volume-Weighted Trimmed Mean Rate from the release Euro Short Term Rate.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "DCOILBRENTEU",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the price of Brent crude oil have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILBRENTEU once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: Definitions, Sources and Explanatory Notes (http://www.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/TblDefs/pet_pri_spt_tbldef2.asp).  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Dollars per Barrel.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILBRENTEU",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "76.23",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Crude Oil Prices: Brent - Europe from the release Spot Prices.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "WRBWFRBL",
                "DCOILBRENTEU"
            ],
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "WRBWFRBL",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the total dollar amount of reserve balances held with Federal Reverse Banks have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WRBWFRBL once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h41/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: Reserve balances with Federal Reserve Banks are the difference between \"total factors supplying reserve funds\" and \"total factors, other than reserve balances, absorbing reserve funds.\" This item includes balances at the Federal Reserve of all depository institutions that are used to satisfy reserve requirements and balances held in excess of balance requirements. It excludes reserves held in the form of cash in bank vaults, and excludes service-related deposits..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Millions of U.S. Dollars.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, As of Wednesday ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WRBWFRBL",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "3255407.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Liabilities and Capital: Other Factors Draining Reserve Balances: Reserve Balances with Federal Reserve Banks: Wednesday Level from the release H.4.1 Factors Affecting Reserve Balances.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "DCOILBRENTEU",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the price of Brent crude oil have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILBRENTEU once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: Definitions, Sources and Explanatory Notes (http://www.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/TblDefs/pet_pri_spt_tbldef2.asp).  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Dollars per Barrel.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILBRENTEU",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "76.23",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Crude Oil Prices: Brent - Europe from the release Spot Prices.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "WRBWFRBL",
                "CASACBW027SBOG"
            ],
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "WRBWFRBL",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the total dollar amount of reserve balances held with Federal Reverse Banks have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WRBWFRBL once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h41/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: Reserve balances with Federal Reserve Banks are the difference between \"total factors supplying reserve funds\" and \"total factors, other than reserve balances, absorbing reserve funds.\" This item includes balances at the Federal Reserve of all depository institutions that are used to satisfy reserve requirements and balances held in excess of balance requirements. It excludes reserves held in the form of cash in bank vaults, and excludes service-related deposits..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Millions of U.S. Dollars.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, As of Wednesday ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WRBWFRBL",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "3255407.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Liabilities and Capital: Other Factors Draining Reserve Balances: Reserve Balances with Federal Reserve Banks: Wednesday Level from the release H.4.1 Factors Affecting Reserve Balances.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "CASACBW027SBOG",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the cash assets of all commercial US banks have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CASACBW027SBOG once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h8/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: data source (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h8/%). For questions on FRED functionality, please contact us here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/).</p>.  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Billions of U.S. Dollars.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, Ending Wednesday ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CASACBW027SBOG",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "3272.9132",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Cash Assets, All Commercial Banks from the release H.8 Assets and Liabilities of Commercial Banks in the United States.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "SOFR30DAYAVG",
                "WM1NS"
            ],
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "SOFR30DAYAVG",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the 30-day average of the Federal Reserve's Secured Overnight Financing Rate have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SOFR30DAYAVG once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: As an extension of the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), the SOFR Averages are compounded averages of the SOFR over rolling 30-, 90-, and 180-calendar day periods.\r\n\r\nThe SOFR Index measures the cumulative impact of compounding the SOFR on a unit of investment over time, with the initial value set to 1 on April 2, 2018, the first value date of the SOFR. The SOFR Index value reflects the effect of compounding the SOFR each business day and allows the calculation of compounded SOFR averages over custom time periods..  The notes from the series: As an extension of the additional documentation about the Treasury Repo Reference Rates. (https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/treasury-repo-reference-rates-information).  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SOFR30DAYAVG",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "4.348669999999999",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in 30-Day Average SOFR from the release SOFR Averages and Index Data.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "WM1NS",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will USD money supply as measured by M1 have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WM1NS once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h6/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: announcements (https://www.federalreserve.gov/feeds/h6.html) and Technical Q&As (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/h6_technical_qa.htm) posted on December 17, 2020.\n\nFor questions on the data, please contact the data source (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h6/%). For questions on FRED functionality, please contact us here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/).</p>.  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Billions of Dollars.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, Ending Monday ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WM1NS",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "18580.1",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in M1 from the release H.6 Money Stock Measures.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "BAMLC0A2CAAEY",
                "RPONTSYD"
            ],
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "BAMLC0A2CAAEY",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the effective yield of securities with an investment grade rating of AA in the ICE BofA US Corporate Index, which tracks the performance of corporate debt issued in the US domestic market, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLC0A2CAAEY once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: This data represents the effective yield of the ICE BofA AA US Corporate Index, a subset of the ICE BofA US Corporate Master Index tracking the performance of US dollar denominated investment grade rated corporate debt publicly issued in the US domestic market. This subset includes all securities with a given investment grade rating AA. When the last calendar day of the month takes place on the weekend, weekend observations will occur as a result of month ending accrued interest adjustments.\n\nCertain indices and index data included in FRED are the property of ICE Data Indices, LLC (\u201cICE DATA\u201d) and used under license. ICE\u00ae IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF ICE DATA OR ITS AFFILIATES AND BOFA\u00ae IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION LICENSED BY BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION AND ITS AFFILIATES (\u201cBOFA\u201d) AND MAY NOT BE USED WITHOUT BOFA\u2019S PRIOR WRITTEN APPROVAL. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL WARRANTIES AND REPRESENTATIONS, EXPRESS AND/OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, INCLUDING WITH REGARD TO THE INDICES, INDEX DATA AND ANY DATA INCLUDED IN, RELATED TO, OR DERIVED THEREFROM. NEITHER ICE DATA, NOR ITS AFFILIATES OR THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY PROVIDERS SHALL BE SUBJECT TO ANY DAMAGES OR LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO THE ADEQUACY, ACCURACY, TIMELINESS OR COMPLETENESS OF THE INDICES OR THE INDEX DATA OR ANY COMPONENT THEREOF. THE INDICES AND INDEX DATA AND ALL COMPONENTS THEREOF ARE PROVIDED ON AN \u201cAS IS\u201d BASIS AND YOUR USE IS AT YOUR OWN RISK. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DO NOT SPONSOR, ENDORSE, OR RECOMMEND FRED, OR ANY OF ITS PRODUCTS OR SERVICES.\n\nCopyright, 2023, ICE Data Indices. Reproduction of this data in any form is prohibited except with the prior written permission of ICE Data Indices.\n\nThe end of day Index values, Index returns, and Index statistics (\u201cTop Level Data\u201d) are being provided for your internal use only and you are not authorized or permitted to publish, distribute or otherwise furnish Top Level Data to any third-party without prior written approval of ICE Data.\nNeither ICE Data, its affiliates nor any of its third party suppliers shall have any liability for the accuracy or completeness of the Top Level Data furnished through FRED, or for delays, interruptions or omissions therein nor for any lost profits, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages.\nThe Top Level Data is not investment advice and a reference to a particular investment or security, a credit rating or any observation concerning a security or investment provided in the Top Level Data is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such investment or security or make any other investment decisions.\nYou shall not use any Indices as a reference index for the purpose of creating financial products (including but not limited to any exchange-traded fund or other passive index-tracking fund, or any other financial instrument whose objective or return is linked in any way to any Index) without prior written approval of ICE Data.\nICE Data, their affiliates or their third party suppliers have exclusive proprietary rights in the Top Level Data and any information and software received in connection therewith.\nYou shall not use or permit anyone to use the Top Level Data for any unlawful or unauthorized purpose.\nAccess to the Top Level Data is subject to termination in the event that any agreement between FRED and ICE Data terminates for any reason.\nICE Data may enforce its rights against you as the third-party beneficiary of the FRED Services Terms of Use, even though ICE Data is not a party to the FRED Services Terms of Use.\nThe FRED Services Terms of Use, including but limited to the limitation of liability, indemnity and disclaimer provisions, shall extend to third party suppliers..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily, Close ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLC0A2CAAEY",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "4.97",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in ICE BofA AA US Corporate Index Effective Yield from the release ICE BofA Indices.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "RPONTSYD",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the aggregated daily value of US Treasury securities repurchased overnight by the Federal Reserve in temporary open market operations  have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RPONTSYD once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: This series is constructed as the aggregated daily amount value of the RP transactions reported by the New York Fed as part of the Temporary Open Market Operations.\n\nTemporary open market operations involve short-term repurchase and reverse repurchase agreements that are designed to temporarily add or drain reserves available to the banking system and influence day-to-day trading in the federal funds market.\n\nA repurchase agreement (known as repo or RP) is a transaction in which the New York Fed under the authorization and direction of the Federal Open Maker Committee buys a security from an eligible counterparty under an agreement to resell that security in the future. For these transactions, eligible securities are U.S. Treasury instruments, federal agency debt and the mortgage-backed securities issued or fully guaranteed by federal agencies..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Billions of US Dollars.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RPONTSYD",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Overnight Repurchase Agreements: Treasury Securities Purchased by the Federal Reserve in the Temporary Open Market Operations from the release Temporary Open Market Operations.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "DFII10",
                "DFF"
            ],
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "DFII10",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the market yield on US treasury securities at 10-year constant maturity, quoted on an investment basis and inflation-indexed, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFII10 once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: H.15 Statistical Release notes (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/default.htm) and the Treasury Yield Curve Methodology (https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/interest-rate-statistics/treasury-yield-curve-methodology).\n\nFor questions on the data, please contact the data source (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%). For questions on FRED functionality, please contact us here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/).</p>.  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFII10",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "2.1",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis, Inflation-Indexed from the release H.15 Selected Interest Rates.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "DFF",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the effective federal funds rate (interest rate) have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFF once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series:  Daily Federal Funds Rate from 1928-1954 (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/categories/33951).\n\nThe federal funds rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions trade federal funds (balances held at Federal Reserve Banks) with each other overnight. When a depository institution has surplus balances in its reserve account, it lends to other banks in need of larger balances. In simpler terms, a bank with excess cash, which is often referred to as liquidity, will lend to another bank that needs to quickly raise liquidity. (1) The rate that the borrowing institution pays to the lending institution is determined between the two banks; the weighted average rate for all of these types of negotiations is called the effective federal funds rate.(2) The effective federal funds rate is essentially determined by the market but is influenced by the Federal Reserve through open market operations to reach the federal funds rate target.(2)\n\nThe Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets eight times a year to determine the federal funds target rate. As previously stated, this rate influences the effective federal funds rate through open market operations or by buying and selling of government bonds (government debt).(2) More specifically, the Federal Reserve decreases liquidity by selling government bonds, thereby raising the federal funds rate because banks have less liquidity to trade with other banks. Similarly, the Federal Reserve can increase liquidity by buying government bonds, decreasing the federal funds rate because banks have excess liquidity for trade. Whether the Federal Reserve wants to buy or sell bonds depends on the state of the economy. If the FOMC believes the economy is growing too fast and inflation pressures are inconsistent with the dual mandate of the Federal Reserve, the Committee may set a higher federal funds rate target to temper economic activity. In the opposing scenario, the FOMC may set a lower federal funds rate target to spur greater economic activity. Therefore, the FOMC must observe the current state of the economy to determine the best course of monetary policy that will maximize economic growth while adhering to the dual mandate set forth by Congress. In making its monetary policy decisions, the FOMC considers a wealth of economic data, such as: trends in prices and wages, employment, consumer spending and income, business investments, and foreign exchange markets.\n\nThe federal funds rate is the central interest rate in the U.S. financial market. It influences other interest rates such as the prime rate, which is the rate banks charge their customers with higher credit ratings. Additionally, the federal funds rate indirectly influences longer- term interest rates such as mortgages, loans, and savings, all of which are very important to consumer wealth and confidence.(2)\n\nReferences\n(1) Federal Reserve Bank of New York. \"Federal funds.\" Fedpoints, August 2007.\n(2) Monetary Policy (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy.htm), Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.\n\nFor questions on the data, please contact the data source (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%). For questions on FRED functionality, please contact us here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/).</p>.  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily, 7-Day ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFF",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "4.33",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Federal Funds Effective Rate from the release H.15 Selected Interest Rates.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "BAMLC0A2CAAEY",
                "DBAA"
            ],
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "BAMLC0A2CAAEY",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the effective yield of securities with an investment grade rating of AA in the ICE BofA US Corporate Index, which tracks the performance of corporate debt issued in the US domestic market, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLC0A2CAAEY once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: This data represents the effective yield of the ICE BofA AA US Corporate Index, a subset of the ICE BofA US Corporate Master Index tracking the performance of US dollar denominated investment grade rated corporate debt publicly issued in the US domestic market. This subset includes all securities with a given investment grade rating AA. When the last calendar day of the month takes place on the weekend, weekend observations will occur as a result of month ending accrued interest adjustments.\n\nCertain indices and index data included in FRED are the property of ICE Data Indices, LLC (\u201cICE DATA\u201d) and used under license. ICE\u00ae IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF ICE DATA OR ITS AFFILIATES AND BOFA\u00ae IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION LICENSED BY BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION AND ITS AFFILIATES (\u201cBOFA\u201d) AND MAY NOT BE USED WITHOUT BOFA\u2019S PRIOR WRITTEN APPROVAL. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL WARRANTIES AND REPRESENTATIONS, EXPRESS AND/OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, INCLUDING WITH REGARD TO THE INDICES, INDEX DATA AND ANY DATA INCLUDED IN, RELATED TO, OR DERIVED THEREFROM. NEITHER ICE DATA, NOR ITS AFFILIATES OR THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY PROVIDERS SHALL BE SUBJECT TO ANY DAMAGES OR LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO THE ADEQUACY, ACCURACY, TIMELINESS OR COMPLETENESS OF THE INDICES OR THE INDEX DATA OR ANY COMPONENT THEREOF. THE INDICES AND INDEX DATA AND ALL COMPONENTS THEREOF ARE PROVIDED ON AN \u201cAS IS\u201d BASIS AND YOUR USE IS AT YOUR OWN RISK. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DO NOT SPONSOR, ENDORSE, OR RECOMMEND FRED, OR ANY OF ITS PRODUCTS OR SERVICES.\n\nCopyright, 2023, ICE Data Indices. Reproduction of this data in any form is prohibited except with the prior written permission of ICE Data Indices.\n\nThe end of day Index values, Index returns, and Index statistics (\u201cTop Level Data\u201d) are being provided for your internal use only and you are not authorized or permitted to publish, distribute or otherwise furnish Top Level Data to any third-party without prior written approval of ICE Data.\nNeither ICE Data, its affiliates nor any of its third party suppliers shall have any liability for the accuracy or completeness of the Top Level Data furnished through FRED, or for delays, interruptions or omissions therein nor for any lost profits, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages.\nThe Top Level Data is not investment advice and a reference to a particular investment or security, a credit rating or any observation concerning a security or investment provided in the Top Level Data is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such investment or security or make any other investment decisions.\nYou shall not use any Indices as a reference index for the purpose of creating financial products (including but not limited to any exchange-traded fund or other passive index-tracking fund, or any other financial instrument whose objective or return is linked in any way to any Index) without prior written approval of ICE Data.\nICE Data, their affiliates or their third party suppliers have exclusive proprietary rights in the Top Level Data and any information and software received in connection therewith.\nYou shall not use or permit anyone to use the Top Level Data for any unlawful or unauthorized purpose.\nAccess to the Top Level Data is subject to termination in the event that any agreement between FRED and ICE Data terminates for any reason.\nICE Data may enforce its rights against you as the third-party beneficiary of the FRED Services Terms of Use, even though ICE Data is not a party to the FRED Services Terms of Use.\nThe FRED Services Terms of Use, including but limited to the limitation of liability, indemnity and disclaimer provisions, shall extend to third party suppliers..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily, Close ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLC0A2CAAEY",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "4.97",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in ICE BofA AA US Corporate Index Effective Yield from the release ICE BofA Indices.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "DBAA",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will Moody's Seasoned Baa Corporate Bond Yield have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DBAA once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: These instruments are based on bonds with maturities 20 years and above. \n\n\u00a9 2017, Moody\u2019s Corporation, Moody\u2019s Investors Service, Inc., Moody\u2019s Analytics, Inc. and/or their licensors and affiliates (collectively, \u201cMoody\u2019s\u201d).  All rights reserved. Moody\u2019s ratings and other information (\u201cMoody\u2019s Information\u201d) are proprietary to Moody\u2019s and/or its licensors and are protected by copyright and other intellectual property laws.  Moody\u2019s Information is licensed to Client by Moody\u2019s.  MOODY\u2019S INFORMATION MAY NOT BE COPIED OR OTHERWISE REPRODUCED, REPACKAGED, FURTHER TRANSMITTED, TRANSFERRED, DISSEMINATED, REDISTRIBUTED OR RESOLD, OR STORED FOR SUBSEQUENT USE FOR ANY SUCH PURPOSE, IN WHOLE OR IN PART, IN ANY FORM OR MANNER OR BY ANY MEANS WHATSOEVER, BY ANY PERSON WITHOUT MOODY\u2019S PRIOR WRITTEN CONSENT..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DBAA",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "5.99",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Moody's Seasoned Baa Corporate Bond Yield from the release Moody's Daily Corporate Bond Yield Averages.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "DGS7",
                "WORAL"
            ],
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "DGS7",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the market yield on US treasury securities at 7-year constant maturity, quoted on an investment basis, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS7 once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: H.15 Statistical Release notes (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/default.htm) and the Treasury Yield Curve Methodology (https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/interest-rate-statistics/treasury-yield-curve-methodology).\n\nFor questions on the data, please contact the data source (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%). For questions on FRED functionality, please contact us here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/).</p>.  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS7",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "4.48",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 7-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis from the release H.15 Selected Interest Rates.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "WORAL",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the weekly dollar amount associated with Federal Reserve repurchase agreements have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WORAL once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h41/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: Repurchase agreements reflect some of the Federal Reserve's temporary open market operations. Repurchase agreements are transactions in which securities are purchased from a primary dealer under an agreement to sell them back to the dealer on a specified date in the future. The difference between the purchase price and the repurchase price reflects an interest payment. The Federal Reserve may enter into repurchase agreements for up to 65 business days, but the typical maturity is between one and 14 days. Federal Reserve repurchase agreements supply reserve balances to the banking system for the length of the agreement. The Federal Reserve employs a naming convention for these transactions based on the perspective of the primary dealers: the dealers receive cash while the Federal Reserve receives the collateral..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Millions of U.S. Dollars.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, As of Wednesday ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WORAL",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "100.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Assets: Other: Repurchase Agreements: Wednesday Level from the release H.4.1 Factors Affecting Reserve Balances.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "WRBWFRBL",
                "NFCIRISK"
            ],
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "WRBWFRBL",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the total dollar amount of reserve balances held with Federal Reverse Banks have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WRBWFRBL once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h41/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: Reserve balances with Federal Reserve Banks are the difference between \"total factors supplying reserve funds\" and \"total factors, other than reserve balances, absorbing reserve funds.\" This item includes balances at the Federal Reserve of all depository institutions that are used to satisfy reserve requirements and balances held in excess of balance requirements. It excludes reserves held in the form of cash in bank vaults, and excludes service-related deposits..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Millions of U.S. Dollars.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, As of Wednesday ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WRBWFRBL",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "3255407.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Liabilities and Capital: Other Factors Draining Reserve Balances: Reserve Balances with Federal Reserve Banks: Wednesday Level from the release H.4.1 Factors Affecting Reserve Balances.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "NFCIRISK",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the Chicago Fed's National Financial Conditions Risk Subindex have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NFCIRISK once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: The Chicago Fed\u2019s National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) provides a comprehensive weekly update on U.S. financial conditions in money markets, debt and equity markets, and the traditional and \u201cshadow\u201d banking systems. Source: http://www.chicagofed.org/webpages/publications/nfci/index.cfm.\n\n\"Positive values of the NFCI indicate financial conditions that are tighter than average, while negative values indicate financial conditions that are looser than average.\"\n\n\"The three subindexes of the NFCI (risk, credit and leverage) allow for a more detailed examination of the movements in the NFCI. Like the NFCI, each is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one over a sample period extending back to 1971. The risk subindex captures volatility and funding risk in the financial sector; the credit subindex is composed of measures of credit conditions; and the leverage subindex consists of debt and equity measures. Increasing risk, tighter credit conditions and declining leverage are consistent with tightening financial conditions. Thus, a positive value for an individual subindex indicates that the corresponding aspect of financial conditions is tighter than on average, while negative values indicate the opposite.\" Source: http://www.chicagofed.org/webpages/research/data/nfci/background.cfm.\n\nFor further information, please visit the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's NFCI website at http://www.chicagofed.org/webpages/publications/nfci/index.cfm..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Index.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, Ending Friday ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NFCIRISK",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "-0.66349",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Risk Subindex from the release Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "RESPPLLOPNWW",
                "DFII5"
            ],
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "RESPPLLOPNWW",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the total weekly remittance of earnings by the Federal Reserve to the US Treasury have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RESPPLLOPNWW once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h41/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: N/A.  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Millions of U.S. Dollars.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, As of Wednesday ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RESPPLLOPNWW",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "-222569.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Liabilities and Capital: Liabilities: Earnings Remittances Due to the U.S. Treasury: Wednesday Level from the release H.4.1 Factors Affecting Reserve Balances.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "DFII5",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the market yield on US treasury securities at 5-year constant maturity, quoted on an investment basis and inflation-indexed, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFII5 once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: H.15 Statistical Release notes (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/default.htm) and the Treasury Yield Curve Methodology (https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/interest-rate-statistics/treasury-yield-curve-methodology).\n\nFor questions on the data, please contact the data source (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%). For questions on FRED functionality, please contact us here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/).</p>.  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFII5",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "1.75",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 5-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis, Inflation-Indexed from the release H.15 Selected Interest Rates.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "CASACBW027SBOG",
                "CCSA"
            ],
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "CASACBW027SBOG",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the cash assets of all commercial US banks have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CASACBW027SBOG once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h8/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: data source (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h8/%). For questions on FRED functionality, please contact us here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/).</p>.  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Billions of U.S. Dollars.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, Ending Wednesday ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CASACBW027SBOG",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "3272.9132",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Cash Assets, All Commercial Banks from the release H.8 Assets and Liabilities of Commercial Banks in the United States.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "CCSA",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the number of insured unemployment claims have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CCSA once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: Continued claims, also referred to as insured unemployment, is the number of people who have already filed an initial claim and who have experienced a week of unemployment and then filed a continued claim to claim benefits for that week of unemployment. Continued claims data are based on the week of unemployment, not the week when the initial claim was filed..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Number.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, Ending Saturday ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CCSA",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "1850000.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Continued Claims (Insured Unemployment) from the release Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "CASACBW027SBOG",
                "WLCFLL"
            ],
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "CASACBW027SBOG",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the cash assets of all commercial US banks have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CASACBW027SBOG once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h8/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: data source (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h8/%). For questions on FRED functionality, please contact us here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/).</p>.  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Billions of U.S. Dollars.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, Ending Wednesday ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CASACBW027SBOG",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "3272.9132",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Cash Assets, All Commercial Banks from the release H.8 Assets and Liabilities of Commercial Banks in the United States.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "WLCFLL",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the weekly dollar amount of loans made by the Federal Reserve under its liquidity and credit facilities have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WLCFLL once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h41/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: Loans is the sum of \"Primary credit,\" \"Secondary credit,\" \"Seasonal credit,\" \"Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility,\" and \"Other credit extensions..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Millions of U.S. Dollars.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, As of Wednesday ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WLCFLL",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "5142.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Assets: Liquidity and Credit Facilities: Loans: Wednesday Level from the release H.4.1 Factors Affecting Reserve Balances.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "GASREGW",
                "DAAA"
            ],
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "GASREGW",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the average price of regular gas in the US have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: Weighted average based on sampling of approximately 900 retail outlets, 8:00AM Monday. The price represents self-service unless only full-service is available and includes all taxes. See (http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/wrgp/mogas_home_page.html) for further definitions. Regular Gasoline has an antiknock index (average of the research octane rating and the motor octane number) greater than or equal to 85 and less than 88. Octane requirements may vary by altitude..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Dollars per Gallon.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, Ending Monday ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "3.148",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in US Regular All Formulations Gas Price from the release Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "DAAA",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will Moody's Seasoned Aaa Corporate Bond Yield have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DAAA once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: These instruments are based on bonds with maturities 20 years and above. \n\n\u00a9 2017, Moody\u2019s Corporation, Moody\u2019s Investors Service, Inc., Moody\u2019s Analytics, Inc. and/or their licensors and affiliates (collectively, \u201cMoody\u2019s\u201d).  All rights reserved. Moody\u2019s ratings and other information (\u201cMoody\u2019s Information\u201d) are proprietary to Moody\u2019s and/or its licensors and are protected by copyright and other intellectual property laws.  Moody\u2019s Information is licensed to Client by Moody\u2019s.  MOODY\u2019S INFORMATION MAY NOT BE COPIED OR OTHERWISE REPRODUCED, REPACKAGED, FURTHER TRANSMITTED, TRANSFERRED, DISSEMINATED, REDISTRIBUTED OR RESOLD, OR STORED FOR SUBSEQUENT USE FOR ANY SUCH PURPOSE, IN WHOLE OR IN PART, IN ANY FORM OR MANNER OR BY ANY MEANS WHATSOEVER, BY ANY PERSON WITHOUT MOODY\u2019S PRIOR WRITTEN CONSENT..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DAAA",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "5.38",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Moody's Seasoned Aaa Corporate Bond Yield from the release Moody's Daily Corporate Bond Yield Averages.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "IHLIDXUS",
                "NASDAQCOM"
            ],
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "IHLIDXUS",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the number of US job postings on Indeed have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXUS once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: Indeed calculates the percentage change in seasonally-adjusted job postings since February 1, 2020, using a 7-day trailing average. February 1, 2020, is the pre-pandemic baseline. Indeed seasonally adjusts each series based on historical patterns in 2017, 2018, and 2019. Each series, including the national trend, occupational sectors, and sub-national geographies, is seasonally adjusted separately. Indeed switched to this new methodology in January 2021 and now reports all historical data using this new methodology. Historical numbers have been revised and may differ significantly from originally reported values. The new methodology applies a detrended seasonal adjustment factor to the percentage change in job postings.\r\n\r\nIndices are calculated for the U.S., Australia, Canada, Germany, Ireland, France, and the U.K. In addition for the U.S., indices are calculated for states, the largest metro areas by population.\r\n\r\nFor Frequently Asked Questions regarding Indeed Data, visit https://www.hiringlab.org/indeed-data-faq/.\r\n\r\nCopyrighted: Pre-approval required. Contact Indeed to request permission to use the data at their contact information at https://github.com/hiring-lab/data#readme.\r\n\r\nEnd Users are excluded of any warranty and liability on the part of Indeed for the accuracy of the Indeed Data. End Users will refrain from any external distribution of Indeed Data except in oral or written presentations, provided that such portions or derivations are incidental to and supportive of such presentations and, provided further that the End Users shall not distribute or disseminate in such presentations any amount of Indeed Data which could cause such presentations to be susceptible to use substantially as a source of or substitute for Indeed Data. End Users agree to credit Indeed as the source and owner of the Indeed Data when making it available to third parties in any permissible manner as well as in internal use. End Users agree to not sell or otherwise provide the Indeed Data obtained from Licensee to third parties..  The notes from the series: Indeed calculates the index change in seasonally-adjusted job postings since February 1, 2020, using a 7-day trailing average. February 1, 2020, is the pre-pandemic baseline. Indeed seasonally adjusts each series based on historical patterns in 2017, 2018, and 2019. Each series, including the national trend, occupational sectors, and sub-national geographies, is seasonally adjusted separately. Indeed switched to this new methodology in January 2021 and now reports all historical data using this new methodology. Historical numbers have been revised and may differ significantly from originally reported values. The new methodology applies a detrended seasonal adjustment factor to the index change in job postings. For more information, see Frequently Asked Questions (https://www.hiringlab.org/indeed-data-faq/) regarding Indeed Data.\n\nCopyrighted: Pre-approval required. Contact Indeed to request permission to use the data at their contact information provided here (https://github.com/hiring-lab/data#readme).\n\nEnd Users are excluded of any warranty and liability on the part of Indeed for the accuracy of the Indeed Data. End Users will refrain from any external distribution of Indeed Data except in oral or written presentations, provided that such portions or derivations are incidental to and supportive of such presentations and, provided further that the End Users shall not distribute or disseminate in such presentations any amount of Indeed Data which could cause such presentations to be susceptible to use substantially as a source of, or substitute for Indeed Data. End Users agree to credit Indeed as the source and owner of the Indeed Data when making it available to third parties in any permissible manner as well as in internal use. End Users agree to not sell or otherwise provide the Indeed Data obtained from Licensee to third parties..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Index Feb, 1 2020=100.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily, 7-Day ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXUS",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "110.44",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Job Postings on Indeed in the United States from the release Job Postings on Indeed.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "NASDAQCOM",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the NASDAQ Composite Index, which represents the daily index value at market close, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NASDAQCOM once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations.  The notes from the series: The observations for the NASDAQ Composite Index represent the daily index value at market close. The market typically closes at 4 PM ET, except for holidays when it sometimes closes early.\n\nThe NASDAQ Composite Index is a market capitalization weighted index with more than 3000 common equities listed on the NASDAQ Stock Market. The types of securities in the index include American depositary receipts (ADRs), common stocks, real estate investment trusts (REITs), and tracking stocks. The index includes all NASDAQ listed stocks that are not derivatives, preferred shares, funds, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) or debentures.\n\nCopyright \u00c2\u00a9 2016, NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Index Feb 5, 1971=100.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily, Close ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NASDAQCOM",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "20041.26",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in NASDAQ Composite Index from the release NASDAQ.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "GVZCLS",
                "BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV"
            ],
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "GVZCLS",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the Chicago Board Options Exchange's Gold ETF Volatility Index have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GVZCLS once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) are shares of trusts that hold portfolios of stocks designed to closely track the price performance and yield of specific indices. Copyright, 2016, Chicago Board Options Exchange, Inc. Reprinted with permission..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Index.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily, Close ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GVZCLS",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "18.03",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in CBOE Gold ETF Volatility Index from the release CBOE Market Statistics.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the total return of the ICE BofA US Corporate Index, which tracks the performance of corporate debt issued in the US domestic market, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: This data represents the ICE BofA US Corporate Index value, which tracks the performance of US dollar denominated investment grade rated corporate debt publicly issued in the US domestic market. To qualify for inclusion in the index, securities must have an investment grade rating (based on an average of Moody's, S&P, and Fitch) and an investment grade rated country of risk (based on an average of Moody's, S&P, and Fitch foreign currency long term sovereign debt ratings). Each security must have greater than 1 year of remaining maturity, a fixed coupon schedule, and a minimum amount outstanding of $250 million. Original issue zero coupon bonds, \"global\" securities (debt issued simultaneously in the eurobond and US\ndomestic bond markets), 144a securities and pay-in-kind securities, including toggle notes, qualify for inclusion in the Index. Callable perpetual securities qualify provided they are at least one year from the first call date. Fixed-to-floating rate securities also qualify provided they are callable within the fixed rate period and are at least one year from the last call prior to the date the bond transitions from a fixed to a floating rate security. DRD-eligible and defaulted securities are excluded from the Index.\n\nICE BofA Explains the Construction Methodology of this series as:\nIndex constituents are capitalization-weighted based on their current amount outstanding. With the exception of U.S. mortgage pass-throughs and U.S. structured products (ABS, CMBS and CMOs), accrued interest is calculated assuming next-day settlement. Accrued interest for U.S. mortgage pass-through and U.S. structured products is calculated assuming same-day settlement. Cash flows from bond payments that are received during the month are retained in the index until the end of the month and then are removed as part of the rebalancing. Cash does not earn any reinvestment income while it is held in the Index. The Index is rebalanced on the last calendar day of the month, based on information available up to and including the third business day before the last business day of the month. Issues that meet the qualifying criteria are included in the Index for the following month. Issues that no longer meet the criteria during the course of the month remain in the Index until the next month-end rebalancing at which point they are removed from the Index.\n\nWhen the last calendar day of the month takes place on the weekend, weekend observations will occur as a result of month ending accrued interest adjustments.\n\nCertain indices and index data included in FRED are the property of ICE Data Indices, LLC (\u201cICE DATA\u201d) and used under license. ICE\u00ae IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF ICE DATA OR ITS AFFILIATES AND BOFA\u00ae IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION LICENSED BY BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION AND ITS AFFILIATES (\u201cBOFA\u201d) AND MAY NOT BE USED WITHOUT BOFA\u2019S PRIOR WRITTEN APPROVAL. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL WARRANTIES AND REPRESENTATIONS, EXPRESS AND/OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, INCLUDING WITH REGARD TO THE INDICES, INDEX DATA AND ANY DATA INCLUDED IN, RELATED TO, OR DERIVED THEREFROM. NEITHER ICE DATA, NOR ITS AFFILIATES OR THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY PROVIDERS SHALL BE SUBJECT TO ANY DAMAGES OR LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO THE ADEQUACY, ACCURACY, TIMELINESS OR COMPLETENESS OF THE INDICES OR THE INDEX DATA OR ANY COMPONENT THEREOF. THE INDICES AND INDEX DATA AND ALL COMPONENTS THEREOF ARE PROVIDED ON AN \u201cAS IS\u201d BASIS AND YOUR USE IS AT YOUR OWN RISK. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DO NOT SPONSOR, ENDORSE, OR RECOMMEND FRED, OR ANY OF ITS PRODUCTS OR SERVICES.\n\nCopyright, 2023, ICE Data Indices. Reproduction of this data in any form is prohibited except with the prior written permission of ICE Data Indices.\n\nThe end of day Index values, Index returns, and Index statistics (\u201cTop Level Data\u201d) are being provided for your internal use only and you are not authorized or permitted to publish, distribute or otherwise furnish Top Level Data to any third-party without prior written approval of ICE Data.\nNeither ICE Data, its affiliates nor any of its third party suppliers shall have any liability for the accuracy or completeness of the Top Level Data furnished through FRED, or for delays, interruptions or omissions therein nor for any lost profits, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages.\nThe Top Level Data is not investment advice and a reference to a particular investment or security, a credit rating or any observation concerning a security or investment provided in the Top Level Data is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such investment or security or make any other investment decisions.\nYou shall not use any Indices as a reference index for the purpose of creating financial products (including but not limited to any exchange-traded fund or other passive index-tracking fund, or any other financial instrument whose objective or return is linked in any way to any Index) without prior written approval of ICE Data.\nICE Data, their affiliates or their third party suppliers have exclusive proprietary rights in the Top Level Data and any information and software received in connection therewith.\nYou shall not use or permit anyone to use the Top Level Data for any unlawful or unauthorized purpose.\nAccess to the Top Level Data is subject to termination in the event that any agreement between FRED and ICE Data terminates for any reason.\nICE Data may enforce its rights against you as the third-party beneficiary of the FRED Services Terms of Use, even though ICE Data is not a party to the FRED Services Terms of Use.\nThe FRED Services Terms of Use, including but limited to the limitation of liability, indemnity and disclaimer provisions, shall extend to third party suppliers..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Index.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily, Close ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "3359.67",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in ICE BofA US Corporate Index Total Return Index Value from the release ICE BofA Indices.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "DFF",
                "BAMLC0A2CAAEY"
            ],
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "DFF",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the effective federal funds rate (interest rate) have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFF once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series:  Daily Federal Funds Rate from 1928-1954 (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/categories/33951).\n\nThe federal funds rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions trade federal funds (balances held at Federal Reserve Banks) with each other overnight. When a depository institution has surplus balances in its reserve account, it lends to other banks in need of larger balances. In simpler terms, a bank with excess cash, which is often referred to as liquidity, will lend to another bank that needs to quickly raise liquidity. (1) The rate that the borrowing institution pays to the lending institution is determined between the two banks; the weighted average rate for all of these types of negotiations is called the effective federal funds rate.(2) The effective federal funds rate is essentially determined by the market but is influenced by the Federal Reserve through open market operations to reach the federal funds rate target.(2)\n\nThe Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets eight times a year to determine the federal funds target rate. As previously stated, this rate influences the effective federal funds rate through open market operations or by buying and selling of government bonds (government debt).(2) More specifically, the Federal Reserve decreases liquidity by selling government bonds, thereby raising the federal funds rate because banks have less liquidity to trade with other banks. Similarly, the Federal Reserve can increase liquidity by buying government bonds, decreasing the federal funds rate because banks have excess liquidity for trade. Whether the Federal Reserve wants to buy or sell bonds depends on the state of the economy. If the FOMC believes the economy is growing too fast and inflation pressures are inconsistent with the dual mandate of the Federal Reserve, the Committee may set a higher federal funds rate target to temper economic activity. In the opposing scenario, the FOMC may set a lower federal funds rate target to spur greater economic activity. Therefore, the FOMC must observe the current state of the economy to determine the best course of monetary policy that will maximize economic growth while adhering to the dual mandate set forth by Congress. In making its monetary policy decisions, the FOMC considers a wealth of economic data, such as: trends in prices and wages, employment, consumer spending and income, business investments, and foreign exchange markets.\n\nThe federal funds rate is the central interest rate in the U.S. financial market. It influences other interest rates such as the prime rate, which is the rate banks charge their customers with higher credit ratings. Additionally, the federal funds rate indirectly influences longer- term interest rates such as mortgages, loans, and savings, all of which are very important to consumer wealth and confidence.(2)\n\nReferences\n(1) Federal Reserve Bank of New York. \"Federal funds.\" Fedpoints, August 2007.\n(2) Monetary Policy (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy.htm), Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.\n\nFor questions on the data, please contact the data source (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%). For questions on FRED functionality, please contact us here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/).</p>.  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily, 7-Day ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFF",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "4.33",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Federal Funds Effective Rate from the release H.15 Selected Interest Rates.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "BAMLC0A2CAAEY",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the effective yield of securities with an investment grade rating of AA in the ICE BofA US Corporate Index, which tracks the performance of corporate debt issued in the US domestic market, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLC0A2CAAEY once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: This data represents the effective yield of the ICE BofA AA US Corporate Index, a subset of the ICE BofA US Corporate Master Index tracking the performance of US dollar denominated investment grade rated corporate debt publicly issued in the US domestic market. This subset includes all securities with a given investment grade rating AA. When the last calendar day of the month takes place on the weekend, weekend observations will occur as a result of month ending accrued interest adjustments.\n\nCertain indices and index data included in FRED are the property of ICE Data Indices, LLC (\u201cICE DATA\u201d) and used under license. ICE\u00ae IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF ICE DATA OR ITS AFFILIATES AND BOFA\u00ae IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION LICENSED BY BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION AND ITS AFFILIATES (\u201cBOFA\u201d) AND MAY NOT BE USED WITHOUT BOFA\u2019S PRIOR WRITTEN APPROVAL. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL WARRANTIES AND REPRESENTATIONS, EXPRESS AND/OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, INCLUDING WITH REGARD TO THE INDICES, INDEX DATA AND ANY DATA INCLUDED IN, RELATED TO, OR DERIVED THEREFROM. NEITHER ICE DATA, NOR ITS AFFILIATES OR THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY PROVIDERS SHALL BE SUBJECT TO ANY DAMAGES OR LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO THE ADEQUACY, ACCURACY, TIMELINESS OR COMPLETENESS OF THE INDICES OR THE INDEX DATA OR ANY COMPONENT THEREOF. THE INDICES AND INDEX DATA AND ALL COMPONENTS THEREOF ARE PROVIDED ON AN \u201cAS IS\u201d BASIS AND YOUR USE IS AT YOUR OWN RISK. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DO NOT SPONSOR, ENDORSE, OR RECOMMEND FRED, OR ANY OF ITS PRODUCTS OR SERVICES.\n\nCopyright, 2023, ICE Data Indices. Reproduction of this data in any form is prohibited except with the prior written permission of ICE Data Indices.\n\nThe end of day Index values, Index returns, and Index statistics (\u201cTop Level Data\u201d) are being provided for your internal use only and you are not authorized or permitted to publish, distribute or otherwise furnish Top Level Data to any third-party without prior written approval of ICE Data.\nNeither ICE Data, its affiliates nor any of its third party suppliers shall have any liability for the accuracy or completeness of the Top Level Data furnished through FRED, or for delays, interruptions or omissions therein nor for any lost profits, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages.\nThe Top Level Data is not investment advice and a reference to a particular investment or security, a credit rating or any observation concerning a security or investment provided in the Top Level Data is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such investment or security or make any other investment decisions.\nYou shall not use any Indices as a reference index for the purpose of creating financial products (including but not limited to any exchange-traded fund or other passive index-tracking fund, or any other financial instrument whose objective or return is linked in any way to any Index) without prior written approval of ICE Data.\nICE Data, their affiliates or their third party suppliers have exclusive proprietary rights in the Top Level Data and any information and software received in connection therewith.\nYou shall not use or permit anyone to use the Top Level Data for any unlawful or unauthorized purpose.\nAccess to the Top Level Data is subject to termination in the event that any agreement between FRED and ICE Data terminates for any reason.\nICE Data may enforce its rights against you as the third-party beneficiary of the FRED Services Terms of Use, even though ICE Data is not a party to the FRED Services Terms of Use.\nThe FRED Services Terms of Use, including but limited to the limitation of liability, indemnity and disclaimer provisions, shall extend to third party suppliers..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily, Close ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLC0A2CAAEY",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "4.97",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in ICE BofA AA US Corporate Index Effective Yield from the release ICE BofA Indices.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "WLRRAL",
                "BAMLHE00EHYIOAS"
            ],
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "WLRRAL",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the weekly dollar amount associated with Federal Reserve reverse repurchase agreements have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WLRRAL once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h41/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: Reverse repurchase agreements are transactions in which securities are sold to a set of counterparties under an agreement to buy them back from the same party on a specified date at the same price plus interest. Reverse repurchase agreements may be conducted with foreign official and international accounts as a service to the holders of these accounts. All other reverse repurchase agreements, including transactions with primary dealers and a set of eligible money market funds, are open market operations intended to manage the supply of reserve balances; reverse repurchase agreements absorb reserve balances from the banking system for the length of the agreement. As with repurchase agreements, the naming convention used here reflects the transaction from the counterparties' perspective; the Federal Reserve receives cash in a reverse repurchase agreement and provides collateral to the counterparties..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Millions of U.S. Dollars.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, As of Wednesday ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WLRRAL",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "452467.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Liabilities and Capital: Liabilities: Reverse Repurchase Agreements: Wednesday Level from the release H.4.1 Factors Affecting Reserve Balances.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "BAMLHE00EHYIOAS",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the option-adjusted spread of the ICE BofA Euro High Yield Index, which tracks the performance of below investment grade corporate debt issued in the euro domestic or eurobond markets, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLHE00EHYIOAS once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: This data represents the Option-Adjusted Spread (OAS) of the ICE BofA Euro High Yield Index tracks the performance of Euro denominated below investment grade corporate debt publicly issued in the euro domestic or eurobond markets. Qualifying securities must have a below investment grade rating (based on an average of Moody's, S&P, and Fitch). Qualifying securities must have at least one year remaining term to maturity, a fixed coupon schedule, and a minimum amount outstanding of Euro 100 million. Original issue zero coupon bonds, \"global\" securities (debt issued simultaneously in the eurobond and euro domestic markets), 144a securities and pay-in-kind securities, including toggle notes, qualify for inclusion in the Index. Callable perpetual securities qualify provided they are at least one year from the first call date. Fixed-to-floating rate securities also qualify provided they are callable within the fixed rate period and are at least one year from the last call prior to the date the bond transitions from a fixed to a floating rate security. Defaulted, warrant-bearing and euro legacy currency securities are excluded from the Index.\n\nICE BofA Explains the Construction Methodology of this series as:\nIndex constituents are capitalization-weighted based on their current amount outstanding. With the exception of U.S. mortgage pass-throughs and U.S. structured products (ABS, CMBS and CMOs), accrued interest is calculated assuming next-day settlement. Accrued interest for U.S. mortgage pass-through and U.S. structured products is calculated assuming same-day settlement. Cash flows from bond payments that are received during the month are retained in the index until\nthe end of the month and then are removed as part of the rebalancing. Cash does not earn any reinvestment income while it is held in the Index. The Index is rebalanced on the last calendar day of the month, based on information available up to and including the third business day before the last business day of the month. Issues that meet the qualifying criteria are included in the Index for the following month. Issues that no longer meet the criteria during the course of the month remain in the Index until the next month-end rebalancing at which point they are removed from the Index.\n\nThe ICE BofA OASs are the calculated spreads between a computed OAS index of all bonds in a given rating category and a spot Treasury curve. An OAS index is constructed using each constituent bond's OAS, weighted by market capitalization. When the last calendar day of the month takes place on the weekend, weekend observations will occur as a result of month ending accrued interest adjustments.\n\nCertain indices and index data included in FRED are the property of ICE Data Indices, LLC (\u201cICE DATA\u201d) and used under license. ICE\u00ae IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF ICE DATA OR ITS AFFILIATES AND BOFA\u00ae IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION LICENSED BY BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION AND ITS AFFILIATES (\u201cBOFA\u201d) AND MAY NOT BE USED WITHOUT BOFA\u2019S PRIOR WRITTEN APPROVAL. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL WARRANTIES AND REPRESENTATIONS, EXPRESS AND/OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, INCLUDING WITH REGARD TO THE INDICES, INDEX DATA AND ANY DATA INCLUDED IN, RELATED TO, OR DERIVED THEREFROM. NEITHER ICE DATA, NOR ITS AFFILIATES OR THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY PROVIDERS SHALL BE SUBJECT TO ANY DAMAGES OR LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO THE ADEQUACY, ACCURACY, TIMELINESS OR COMPLETENESS OF THE INDICES OR THE INDEX DATA OR ANY COMPONENT THEREOF. THE INDICES AND INDEX DATA AND ALL COMPONENTS THEREOF ARE PROVIDED ON AN \u201cAS IS\u201d BASIS AND YOUR USE IS AT YOUR OWN RISK. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DO NOT SPONSOR, ENDORSE, OR RECOMMEND FRED, OR ANY OF ITS PRODUCTS OR SERVICES.\n\nCopyright, 2023, ICE Data Indices. Reproduction of this data in any form is prohibited except with the prior written permission of ICE Data Indices.\n\nThe end of day Index values, Index returns, and Index statistics (\u201cTop Level Data\u201d) are being provided for your internal use only and you are not authorized or permitted to publish, distribute or otherwise furnish Top Level Data to any third-party without prior written approval of ICE Data.\nNeither ICE Data, its affiliates nor any of its third party suppliers shall have any liability for the accuracy or completeness of the Top Level Data furnished through FRED, or for delays, interruptions or omissions therein nor for any lost profits, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages.\nThe Top Level Data is not investment advice and a reference to a particular investment or security, a credit rating or any observation concerning a security or investment provided in the Top Level Data is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such investment or security or make any other investment decisions.\nYou shall not use any Indices as a reference index for the purpose of creating financial products (including but not limited to any exchange-traded fund or other passive index-tracking fund, or any other financial instrument whose objective or return is linked in any way to any Index) without prior written approval of ICE Data.\nICE Data, their affiliates or their third party suppliers have exclusive proprietary rights in the Top Level Data and any information and software received in connection therewith.\nYou shall not use or permit anyone to use the Top Level Data for any unlawful or unauthorized purpose.\nAccess to the Top Level Data is subject to termination in the event that any agreement between FRED and ICE Data terminates for any reason.\nICE Data may enforce its rights against you as the third-party beneficiary of the FRED Services Terms of Use, even though ICE Data is not a party to the FRED Services Terms of Use.\nThe FRED Services Terms of Use, including but limited to the limitation of liability, indemnity and disclaimer provisions, shall extend to third party suppliers..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily, Close ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLHE00EHYIOAS",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "2.76",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in ICE BofA Euro High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread from the release ICE BofA Indices.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "DGS2",
                "REAINTRATREARAT10Y"
            ],
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "DGS2",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the market yield on US treasury securities at 2-year constant maturity, quoted on an investment basis, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2 once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: H.15 Statistical Release notes (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/default.htm) and the Treasury Yield Curve Methodology (https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/interest-rate-statistics/treasury-yield-curve-methodology).\n\nFor questions on the data, please contact the data source (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%). For questions on FRED functionality, please contact us here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/).</p>.  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "4.29",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 2-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis from the release H.15 Selected Interest Rates.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "REAINTRATREARAT10Y",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland's estimate for the 10-year real interest rate have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/REAINTRATREARAT10Y once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland estimates the expected rate of inflation over the next 30 years along with the inflation risk premium, the real risk premium, and the real interest rate.\n\nTheir estimates are calculated with a model that uses Treasury yields, inflation data, inflation swaps, and survey-based measures of inflation expectations.\n\nFor more information, please visit the <a href=\"https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-expectations#background\">Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland<a/>..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Monthly ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/REAINTRATREARAT10Y",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "2.03128216",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in 10-Year Real Interest Rate from the release Inflation Expectations.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "WLCFLL",
                "REAINTRATREARAT10Y"
            ],
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "WLCFLL",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the weekly dollar amount of loans made by the Federal Reserve under its liquidity and credit facilities have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WLCFLL once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h41/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: Loans is the sum of \"Primary credit,\" \"Secondary credit,\" \"Seasonal credit,\" \"Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility,\" and \"Other credit extensions..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Millions of U.S. Dollars.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, As of Wednesday ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WLCFLL",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "5142.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Assets: Liquidity and Credit Facilities: Loans: Wednesday Level from the release H.4.1 Factors Affecting Reserve Balances.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "REAINTRATREARAT10Y",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland's estimate for the 10-year real interest rate have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/REAINTRATREARAT10Y once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland estimates the expected rate of inflation over the next 30 years along with the inflation risk premium, the real risk premium, and the real interest rate.\n\nTheir estimates are calculated with a model that uses Treasury yields, inflation data, inflation swaps, and survey-based measures of inflation expectations.\n\nFor more information, please visit the <a href=\"https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-expectations#background\">Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland<a/>..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Monthly ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/REAINTRATREARAT10Y",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "2.03128216",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in 10-Year Real Interest Rate from the release Inflation Expectations.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "NIKKEI225",
                "IORB"
            ],
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "NIKKEI225",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the Nikkei 225 Stock Average, which represent the daily index value at market close, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NIKKEI225 once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: The observations for the Nikkei Stock Average, Nikkei 225 represent the daily index value at market close.\n\nNikkei 225 is the major stock market index comprising of 225 highly liquid stocks of the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE).\n\nFor in depth information, visit here (http://indexes.nikkei.co.jp/nkave/archives/faq/faq_nikkei_stock_average_en.pdf).\n\nCopyright, 2016, Nikkei Inc. Reprinted with permission.\n\nDownloading the data for research reports or research projects is permitted.\n\nHowever, if you wish to redistribute the data itself or research reports (information with Nikkei data) to the third parties/persons, the user shall report back to the Nikkei, Inc for permission..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Index.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily, Close ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NIKKEI225",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "39164.61",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Nikkei Stock Average, Nikkei 225 from the release Nikkei Indexes.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "IORB",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the Federal Reserve's interest rate on reserve balances have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IORB once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/monetarypolicy/reserve-balances.htm\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: IOER (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IOER)) and the interest rate on required reserves (IORR (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IORR)) were replaced with a single rate, the interest rate on reserve balances (IORB (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IORB)). See the source's announcement (https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/bcreg20210602a.htm) for more details.\n\nThe interest rate on reserve balances (IORB rate) is the rate of interest that the Federal Reserve pays on balances maintained by or on behalf of eligible institutions in master accounts at Federal Reserve Banks. The interest rate is set by the Board of Governors, and it is an important tool of monetary policy.\n\nSee Policy Tools (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/reqresbalances.htm) and the IORB FAQs (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/iorb-faqs.htm) for more information.\n\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact us here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/).</p>.  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily, 7-Day ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IORB",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "4.4",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Interest Rate on Reserve Balances (IORB Rate) from the release Interest Rate on Reserve Balances.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "ICSA",
                "BAMLC0A0CM"
            ],
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "ICSA",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the weekly number of initial unemployment claims have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: An initial claim is a claim filed by an unemployed individual after a separation from an employer. The claim requests a determination of basic eligibility for the Unemployment Insurance program..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Number.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, Ending Saturday ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "213000.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Initial Claims from the release Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "BAMLC0A0CM",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the option-adjusted spread of the ICE BofA Corporate Index, which tracks the performance of corporate debt issued in the US domestic market, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLC0A0CM once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: The ICE BofA Option-Adjusted Spreads (OASs) are the calculated spreads between a computed OAS index of all bonds in a given rating category and a spot Treasury curve. An OAS index is constructed using each constituent bond's OAS, weighted by market capitalization. The Corporate Master OAS uses an index of bonds that are considered investment grade (those rated BBB or better). When the last calendar day of the month takes place on the weekend, weekend observations will occur as a result of month ending accrued interest adjustments.\n\nThis data represents the ICE BofA US Corporate Index value, which tracks the performance of US dollar denominated investment grade rated corporate debt publicly issued in the US domestic market. To qualify for inclusion in the index, securities must have an investment grade rating (based on an average of Moody's, S&P, and Fitch) and an investment grade rated country of risk (based on an average of Moody's, S&P, and Fitch foreign currency long term sovereign debt ratings). Each security must have greater than 1 year of remaining maturity, a fixed coupon schedule, and a minimum amount outstanding of $250 million. Original issue zero coupon bonds, \"global\" securities (debt issued simultaneously in the eurobond and US\ndomestic bond markets), 144a securities and pay-in-kind securities, including toggle notes, qualify for inclusion in the Index. Callable perpetual securities qualify provided they are at least one year from the first call date. Fixed-to-floating rate securities also qualify provided they are callable within the fixed rate period and are at least one year from the last call prior to the date the bond transitions from a fixed to a floating rate security. DRD-eligible and defaulted securities are excluded from the Index.\n\nICE BofA Explains the Construction Methodology of this series as:\nIndex constituents are capitalization-weighted based on their current amount outstanding. With the exception of U.S. mortgage pass-throughs and U.S. structured products (ABS, CMBS and CMOs), accrued interest is calculated assuming next-day settlement. Accrued interest for U.S. mortgage pass-through and U.S. structured products is calculated assuming same-day settlement. Cash flows from bond payments that are received during the month are retained in the index until the end of the month and then are removed as part of the rebalancing. Cash does not earn any reinvestment income while it is held in the Index. The Index is rebalanced on the last calendar day of the month, based on information available up to and including the third business day before the last business day of the month. Issues that meet the qualifying criteria are included in the Index for the following month. Issues that no longer meet the criteria during the course of the month\nremain in the Index until the next month-end rebalancing at which point they are removed from the Index.\n\nWhen the last calendar day of the month takes place on the weekend, weekend observations will occur as a result of month ending accrued interest adjustments.\n\nCertain indices and index data included in FRED are the property of ICE Data Indices, LLC (\u201cICE DATA\u201d) and used under license. ICE\u00ae IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF ICE DATA OR ITS AFFILIATES AND BOFA\u00ae IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION LICENSED BY BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION AND ITS AFFILIATES (\u201cBOFA\u201d) AND MAY NOT BE USED WITHOUT BOFA\u2019S PRIOR WRITTEN APPROVAL. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL WARRANTIES AND REPRESENTATIONS, EXPRESS AND/OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, INCLUDING WITH REGARD TO THE INDICES, INDEX DATA AND ANY DATA INCLUDED IN, RELATED TO, OR DERIVED THEREFROM. NEITHER ICE DATA, NOR ITS AFFILIATES OR THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY PROVIDERS SHALL BE SUBJECT TO ANY DAMAGES OR LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO THE ADEQUACY, ACCURACY, TIMELINESS OR COMPLETENESS OF THE INDICES OR THE INDEX DATA OR ANY COMPONENT THEREOF. THE INDICES AND INDEX DATA AND ALL COMPONENTS THEREOF ARE PROVIDED ON AN \u201cAS IS\u201d BASIS AND YOUR USE IS AT YOUR OWN RISK. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DO NOT SPONSOR, ENDORSE, OR RECOMMEND FRED, OR ANY OF ITS PRODUCTS OR SERVICES.\n\nCopyright, 2023, ICE Data Indices. Reproduction of this data in any form is prohibited except with the prior written permission of ICE Data Indices.\n\nThe end of day Index values, Index returns, and Index statistics (\u201cTop Level Data\u201d) are being provided for your internal use only and you are not authorized or permitted to publish, distribute or otherwise furnish Top Level Data to any third-party without prior written approval of ICE Data.\nNeither ICE Data, its affiliates nor any of its third party suppliers shall have any liability for the accuracy or completeness of the Top Level Data furnished through FRED, or for delays, interruptions or omissions therein nor for any lost profits, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages.\nThe Top Level Data is not investment advice and a reference to a particular investment or security, a credit rating or any observation concerning a security or investment provided in the Top Level Data is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such investment or security or make any other investment decisions.\nYou shall not use any Indices as a reference index for the purpose of creating financial products (including but not limited to any exchange-traded fund or other passive index-tracking fund, or any other financial instrument whose objective or return is linked in any way to any Index) without prior written approval of ICE Data.\nICE Data, their affiliates or their third party suppliers have exclusive proprietary rights in the Top Level Data and any information and software received in connection therewith.\nYou shall not use or permit anyone to use the Top Level Data for any unlawful or unauthorized purpose.\nAccess to the Top Level Data is subject to termination in the event that any agreement between FRED and ICE Data terminates for any reason.\nICE Data may enforce its rights against you as the third-party beneficiary of the FRED Services Terms of Use, even though ICE Data is not a party to the FRED Services Terms of Use.\nThe FRED Services Terms of Use, including but limited to the limitation of liability, indemnity and disclaimer provisions, shall extend to third party suppliers..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily, Close ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLC0A0CM",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.79",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in ICE BofA US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread from the release ICE BofA Indices.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "WGS1YR",
                "NFCILEVERAGE"
            ],
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "WGS1YR",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the market yield on US treasury securities at 1-year constant maturity, quoted on an investment basis, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WGS1YR once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: H.15 Statistical Release notes (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/default.htm) and the Treasury Yield Curve Methodology (https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/interest-rate-statistics/treasury-yield-curve-methodology).\n\nFor questions on the data, please contact the data source (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%). For questions on FRED functionality, please contact us here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/).</p>.  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, Ending Friday ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WGS1YR",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "4.26",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 1-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis from the release H.15 Selected Interest Rates.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "NFCILEVERAGE",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the Chicago Fed's National Financial Conditions Leverage Subindex have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NFCILEVERAGE once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: The Chicago Fed\u2019s National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) provides a comprehensive weekly update on U.S. financial conditions in money markets, debt and equity markets, and the traditional and \u201cshadow\u201d banking systems. Source: http://www.chicagofed.org/webpages/publications/nfci/index.cfm.\n\n\"Positive values of the NFCI indicate financial conditions that are tighter than average, while negative values indicate financial conditions that are looser than average.\"\n\n\"The three subindexes of the NFCI (risk, credit and leverage) allow for a more detailed examination of the movements in the NFCI. Like the NFCI, each is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one over a sample period extending back to 1971. The risk subindex captures volatility and funding risk in the financial sector; the credit subindex is composed of measures of credit conditions; and the leverage subindex consists of debt and equity measures. Increasing risk, tighter credit conditions and declining leverage are consistent with tightening financial conditions. Thus, a positive value for an individual subindex indicates that the corresponding aspect of financial conditions is tighter than on average, while negative values indicate the opposite.\" Source: http://www.chicagofed.org/webpages/research/data/nfci/background.cfm.\n\nFor further information, please visit the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's NFCI website at http://www.chicagofed.org/webpages/publications/nfci/index.cfm..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Index.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, Ending Friday ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NFCILEVERAGE",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "-0.66596",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Leverage Subindex from the release Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "NASDAQCOM",
                "OBMMIFHA30YF"
            ],
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "NASDAQCOM",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the NASDAQ Composite Index, which represents the daily index value at market close, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NASDAQCOM once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations.  The notes from the series: The observations for the NASDAQ Composite Index represent the daily index value at market close. The market typically closes at 4 PM ET, except for holidays when it sometimes closes early.\n\nThe NASDAQ Composite Index is a market capitalization weighted index with more than 3000 common equities listed on the NASDAQ Stock Market. The types of securities in the index include American depositary receipts (ADRs), common stocks, real estate investment trusts (REITs), and tracking stocks. The index includes all NASDAQ listed stocks that are not derivatives, preferred shares, funds, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) or debentures.\n\nCopyright \u00c2\u00a9 2016, NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Index Feb 5, 1971=100.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily, Close ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NASDAQCOM",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "20041.26",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in NASDAQ Composite Index from the release NASDAQ.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "OBMMIFHA30YF",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the 30-year fixed rate FHA mortgage index have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OBMMIFHA30YF once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: Optimal Blue Mortgage Market Indices\u2122 (OBMMI\u2122) is calculated from actual locked rates with consumers across over one-third of all mortgage transactions nationwide. OBMMI includes multiple mortgage pricing indices developed around the most popular products and specific borrower and loan level attributes..  The notes from the series: This index includes rate locks from Federal Housing Authority loans.\n\nOptimal Blue Mortgage Market Indices (https://www2.optimalblue.com/obmmi/)\u2122 (OBMMI\u2122) is calculated from actual locked rates with consumers across over one-third of all mortgage transactions nationwide. OBMMI includes multiple mortgage pricing indices developed around the most popular products and specific borrower and loan level attributes.\n\nEach index is calculated as the average of all appropriate rate locks locked through the Optimal Blue product eligibility and pricing engine on a given day. More details about methodology and definitions are available here (https://www2.optimalblue.com/obmmi/)..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OBMMIFHA30YF",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "6.513",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in 30-Year Fixed Rate FHA Mortgage Index from the release Optimal Blue Mortgage Market Indices.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "GASREGW",
                "WRBWFRBL"
            ],
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "GASREGW",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the average price of regular gas in the US have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: Weighted average based on sampling of approximately 900 retail outlets, 8:00AM Monday. The price represents self-service unless only full-service is available and includes all taxes. See (http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/wrgp/mogas_home_page.html) for further definitions. Regular Gasoline has an antiknock index (average of the research octane rating and the motor octane number) greater than or equal to 85 and less than 88. Octane requirements may vary by altitude..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Dollars per Gallon.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, Ending Monday ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "3.148",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in US Regular All Formulations Gas Price from the release Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "WRBWFRBL",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the total dollar amount of reserve balances held with Federal Reverse Banks have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WRBWFRBL once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h41/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: Reserve balances with Federal Reserve Banks are the difference between \"total factors supplying reserve funds\" and \"total factors, other than reserve balances, absorbing reserve funds.\" This item includes balances at the Federal Reserve of all depository institutions that are used to satisfy reserve requirements and balances held in excess of balance requirements. It excludes reserves held in the form of cash in bank vaults, and excludes service-related deposits..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Millions of U.S. Dollars.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, As of Wednesday ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WRBWFRBL",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "3255407.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Liabilities and Capital: Other Factors Draining Reserve Balances: Reserve Balances with Federal Reserve Banks: Wednesday Level from the release H.4.1 Factors Affecting Reserve Balances.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "DFII5",
                "RPONTSYD"
            ],
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "DFII5",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the market yield on US treasury securities at 5-year constant maturity, quoted on an investment basis and inflation-indexed, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFII5 once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: H.15 Statistical Release notes (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/default.htm) and the Treasury Yield Curve Methodology (https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/interest-rate-statistics/treasury-yield-curve-methodology).\n\nFor questions on the data, please contact the data source (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%). For questions on FRED functionality, please contact us here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/).</p>.  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFII5",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "1.75",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 5-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis, Inflation-Indexed from the release H.15 Selected Interest Rates.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "RPONTSYD",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the aggregated daily value of US Treasury securities repurchased overnight by the Federal Reserve in temporary open market operations  have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RPONTSYD once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: This series is constructed as the aggregated daily amount value of the RP transactions reported by the New York Fed as part of the Temporary Open Market Operations.\n\nTemporary open market operations involve short-term repurchase and reverse repurchase agreements that are designed to temporarily add or drain reserves available to the banking system and influence day-to-day trading in the federal funds market.\n\nA repurchase agreement (known as repo or RP) is a transaction in which the New York Fed under the authorization and direction of the Federal Open Maker Committee buys a security from an eligible counterparty under an agreement to resell that security in the future. For these transactions, eligible securities are U.S. Treasury instruments, federal agency debt and the mortgage-backed securities issued or fully guaranteed by federal agencies..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Billions of US Dollars.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RPONTSYD",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Overnight Repurchase Agreements: Treasury Securities Purchased by the Federal Reserve in the Temporary Open Market Operations from the release Temporary Open Market Operations.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "RESPPLLOPNWW",
                "WGS10YR"
            ],
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "RESPPLLOPNWW",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the total weekly remittance of earnings by the Federal Reserve to the US Treasury have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RESPPLLOPNWW once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h41/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: N/A.  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Millions of U.S. Dollars.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, As of Wednesday ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RESPPLLOPNWW",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "-222569.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Liabilities and Capital: Liabilities: Earnings Remittances Due to the U.S. Treasury: Wednesday Level from the release H.4.1 Factors Affecting Reserve Balances.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "WGS10YR",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the market yield on US treasury securities at 10-year constant maturity, quoted on an investment basis, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WGS10YR once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: H.15 Statistical Release notes (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/default.htm) and the Treasury Yield Curve Methodology (https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/interest-rate-statistics/treasury-yield-curve-methodology).\n\nFor questions on the data, please contact the data source (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%). For questions on FRED functionality, please contact us here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/).</p>.  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, Ending Friday ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WGS10YR",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "4.53",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis from the release H.15 Selected Interest Rates.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "BAMLC0A3CA",
                "DFII10"
            ],
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "BAMLC0A3CA",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the option-adjusted spread of securities with an investment grade rating of A in the ICE BofA US Corporate Index, which tracks the performance of corporate debt issued in the US domestic market, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLC0A3CA once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: This data represents the Option-Adjusted Spread (OAS) of the ICE BofA Single-A US Corporate Index, a subset of the ICE BofA US Corporate Master Index tracking the performance of US dollar denominated investment grade rated corporate debt publicly issued in the US domestic market. This subset includes all securities with a given investment grade rating A.\nThe ICE BofA OASs are the calculated spreads between a computed OAS index of all bonds in a given rating category and a spot Treasury curve. An OAS index is constructed using each constituent bond's OAS, weighted by market capitalization. When the last calendar day of the month takes place on the weekend, weekend observations will occur as a result of month ending accrued interest adjustments.\n\nCertain indices and index data included in FRED are the property of ICE Data Indices, LLC (\u201cICE DATA\u201d) and used under license. ICE\u00ae IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF ICE DATA OR ITS AFFILIATES AND BOFA\u00ae IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION LICENSED BY BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION AND ITS AFFILIATES (\u201cBOFA\u201d) AND MAY NOT BE USED WITHOUT BOFA\u2019S PRIOR WRITTEN APPROVAL. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL WARRANTIES AND REPRESENTATIONS, EXPRESS AND/OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, INCLUDING WITH REGARD TO THE INDICES, INDEX DATA AND ANY DATA INCLUDED IN, RELATED TO, OR DERIVED THEREFROM. NEITHER ICE DATA, NOR ITS AFFILIATES OR THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY PROVIDERS SHALL BE SUBJECT TO ANY DAMAGES OR LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO THE ADEQUACY, ACCURACY, TIMELINESS OR COMPLETENESS OF THE INDICES OR THE INDEX DATA OR ANY COMPONENT THEREOF. THE INDICES AND INDEX DATA AND ALL COMPONENTS THEREOF ARE PROVIDED ON AN \u201cAS IS\u201d BASIS AND YOUR USE IS AT YOUR OWN RISK. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DO NOT SPONSOR, ENDORSE, OR RECOMMEND FRED, OR ANY OF ITS PRODUCTS OR SERVICES.\n\nCopyright, 2023, ICE Data Indices. Reproduction of this data in any form is prohibited except with the prior written permission of ICE Data Indices.\n\nThe end of day Index values, Index returns, and Index statistics (\u201cTop Level Data\u201d) are being provided for your internal use only and you are not authorized or permitted to publish, distribute or otherwise furnish Top Level Data to any third-party without prior written approval of ICE Data.\nNeither ICE Data, its affiliates nor any of its third party suppliers shall have any liability for the accuracy or completeness of the Top Level Data furnished through FRED, or for delays, interruptions or omissions therein nor for any lost profits, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages.\nThe Top Level Data is not investment advice and a reference to a particular investment or security, a credit rating or any observation concerning a security or investment provided in the Top Level Data is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such investment or security or make any other investment decisions.\nYou shall not use any Indices as a reference index for the purpose of creating financial products (including but not limited to any exchange-traded fund or other passive index-tracking fund, or any other financial instrument whose objective or return is linked in any way to any Index) without prior written approval of ICE Data.\nICE Data, their affiliates or their third party suppliers have exclusive proprietary rights in the Top Level Data and any information and software received in connection therewith.\nYou shall not use or permit anyone to use the Top Level Data for any unlawful or unauthorized purpose.\nAccess to the Top Level Data is subject to termination in the event that any agreement between FRED and ICE Data terminates for any reason.\nICE Data may enforce its rights against you as the third-party beneficiary of the FRED Services Terms of Use, even though ICE Data is not a party to the FRED Services Terms of Use.\nThe FRED Services Terms of Use, including but limited to the limitation of liability, indemnity and disclaimer provisions, shall extend to third party suppliers..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily, Close ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLC0A3CA",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "0.66",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in ICE BofA Single-A US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread from the release ICE BofA Indices.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "DFII10",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the market yield on US treasury securities at 10-year constant maturity, quoted on an investment basis and inflation-indexed, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFII10 once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: H.15 Statistical Release notes (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/default.htm) and the Treasury Yield Curve Methodology (https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/interest-rate-statistics/treasury-yield-curve-methodology).\n\nFor questions on the data, please contact the data source (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%). For questions on FRED functionality, please contact us here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/).</p>.  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFII10",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "2.1",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis, Inflation-Indexed from the release H.15 Selected Interest Rates.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "SWPT",
                "REAINTRATREARAT10Y"
            ],
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "SWPT",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the weekly value of central bank liquidity swaps held by the Federal Reserve have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SWPT once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h41/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: The FOMC has authorized temporary reciprocal currency arrangements (central bank liquidity swaps) with certain foreign central banks to help provide liquidity in U.S. dollars to overseas markets.\n\nThese swaps involve two transactions. First, when the foreign central bank draws on the swap line, it sells a specified amount of its currency to the Federal Reserve in exchange for dollars at the prevailing market exchange rate. The foreign currency that the Federal Reserve acquires is placed in an account for the Federal Reserve at the foreign central bank. This line in the statistical release reports the dollar value of the foreign currency held under these swaps.\n\nSecond, the dollars that the Federal Reserve provides are deposited in an account for the foreign central bank at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. At the same time as the draw on the swap line, the Federal Reserve and the foreign central bank enter into a binding agreement for a second transaction in which the foreign central bank is obligated to repurchase the foreign currency at a specified future date at the same exchange rate. At the conclusion of the second transaction, the foreign central bank pays a market-based rate of interest to the Federal Reserve. Central bank liquidity swaps are of various maturities, ranging from overnight to three months..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Millions of U.S. Dollars.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, As of Wednesday ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SWPT",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "73.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Assets: Central Bank Liquidity Swaps: Central Bank Liquidity Swaps: Wednesday Level from the release H.4.1 Factors Affecting Reserve Balances.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "REAINTRATREARAT10Y",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland's estimate for the 10-year real interest rate have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/REAINTRATREARAT10Y once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland estimates the expected rate of inflation over the next 30 years along with the inflation risk premium, the real risk premium, and the real interest rate.\n\nTheir estimates are calculated with a model that uses Treasury yields, inflation data, inflation swaps, and survey-based measures of inflation expectations.\n\nFor more information, please visit the <a href=\"https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-expectations#background\">Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland<a/>..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Monthly ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/REAINTRATREARAT10Y",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "2.03128216",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in 10-Year Real Interest Rate from the release Inflation Expectations.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "WRBWFRBL",
                "DGS10"
            ],
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "WRBWFRBL",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the total dollar amount of reserve balances held with Federal Reverse Banks have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WRBWFRBL once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h41/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: Reserve balances with Federal Reserve Banks are the difference between \"total factors supplying reserve funds\" and \"total factors, other than reserve balances, absorbing reserve funds.\" This item includes balances at the Federal Reserve of all depository institutions that are used to satisfy reserve requirements and balances held in excess of balance requirements. It excludes reserves held in the form of cash in bank vaults, and excludes service-related deposits..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Millions of U.S. Dollars.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, As of Wednesday ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WRBWFRBL",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "3255407.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Liabilities and Capital: Other Factors Draining Reserve Balances: Reserve Balances with Federal Reserve Banks: Wednesday Level from the release H.4.1 Factors Affecting Reserve Balances.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "DGS10",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the market yield on US treasury securities at 10-year constant maturity, quoted on an investment basis, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10 once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: H.15 Statistical Release (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/current/h15.pdf) notes and Treasury Yield Curve Methodology (https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/yieldmethod.aspx).\n\nFor questions on the data, please contact the data source (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%). For questions on FRED functionality, please contact us here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/).</p>.  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "4.55",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis from the release H.15 Selected Interest Rates.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "DEXMXUS",
                "WM1NS"
            ],
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "DEXMXUS",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the spot exchange rate of Mexican pesos to US dollars have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DEXMXUS once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h10/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: Noon buying rates in New York City for cable transfers payable in foreign currencies..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Mexican Pesos to One U.S. Dollar.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DEXMXUS",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "20.3097",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Mexican Pesos to U.S. Dollar Spot Exchange Rate from the release H.10 Foreign Exchange Rates.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "WM1NS",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will USD money supply as measured by M1 have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WM1NS once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h6/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: announcements (https://www.federalreserve.gov/feeds/h6.html) and Technical Q&As (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/h6_technical_qa.htm) posted on December 17, 2020.\n\nFor questions on the data, please contact the data source (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h6/%). For questions on FRED functionality, please contact us here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/).</p>.  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Billions of Dollars.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, Ending Monday ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WM1NS",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "18580.1",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in M1 from the release H.6 Money Stock Measures.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "WLODLL",
                "BAMLH0A2HYBEY"
            ],
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "WLODLL",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the weekly dollar amount of balances in the accounts of depository institutions in the Federal Reserve Banks have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WLODLL once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h41/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: This account reflects the balances in the accounts that depository institutions have with the Federal Reserve Banks. These balances include reserve balances and service-related balances..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Millions of U.S. Dollars.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, As of Wednesday ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WLODLL",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "3255407.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Liabilities and Capital: Liabilities: Deposits: Other Deposits Held by Depository Institutions: Wednesday Level from the release H.4.1 Factors Affecting Reserve Balances.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "BAMLH0A2HYBEY",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the effective yield of securities with an investment grade rating of B in the ICE BofA US High Yield Master II Index, which tracks the performance of corporate debt below investment grade in the US domestic market, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLH0A2HYBEY once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: This data represents the effective yield of the ICE BofA US Corporate B Index, a subset of the ICE BofA US High Yield Master II Index tracking the performance of US dollar denominated below investment grade rated corporate debt publicly issued in the US domestic market. This subset includes all securities with a given investment grade rating B. When the last calendar day of the month takes place on the weekend, weekend observations will occur as a result of month ending accrued interest adjustments.\n\nCertain indices and index data included in FRED are the property of ICE Data Indices, LLC (\u201cICE DATA\u201d) and used under license. ICE\u00ae IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF ICE DATA OR ITS AFFILIATES AND BOFA\u00ae IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION LICENSED BY BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION AND ITS AFFILIATES (\u201cBOFA\u201d) AND MAY NOT BE USED WITHOUT BOFA\u2019S PRIOR WRITTEN APPROVAL. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL WARRANTIES AND REPRESENTATIONS, EXPRESS AND/OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, INCLUDING WITH REGARD TO THE INDICES, INDEX DATA AND ANY DATA INCLUDED IN, RELATED TO, OR DERIVED THEREFROM. NEITHER ICE DATA, NOR ITS AFFILIATES OR THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY PROVIDERS SHALL BE SUBJECT TO ANY DAMAGES OR LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO THE ADEQUACY, ACCURACY, TIMELINESS OR COMPLETENESS OF THE INDICES OR THE INDEX DATA OR ANY COMPONENT THEREOF. THE INDICES AND INDEX DATA AND ALL COMPONENTS THEREOF ARE PROVIDED ON AN \u201cAS IS\u201d BASIS AND YOUR USE IS AT YOUR OWN RISK. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DO NOT SPONSOR, ENDORSE, OR RECOMMEND FRED, OR ANY OF ITS PRODUCTS OR SERVICES.\n\nCopyright, 2023, ICE Data Indices. Reproduction of this data in any form is prohibited except with the prior written permission of ICE Data Indices.\n\nThe end of day Index values, Index returns, and Index statistics (\u201cTop Level Data\u201d) are being provided for your internal use only and you are not authorized or permitted to publish, distribute or otherwise furnish Top Level Data to any third-party without prior written approval of ICE Data.\nNeither ICE Data, its affiliates nor any of its third party suppliers shall have any liability for the accuracy or completeness of the Top Level Data furnished through FRED, or for delays, interruptions or omissions therein nor for any lost profits, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages.\nThe Top Level Data is not investment advice and a reference to a particular investment or security, a credit rating or any observation concerning a security or investment provided in the Top Level Data is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such investment or security or make any other investment decisions.\nYou shall not use any Indices as a reference index for the purpose of creating financial products (including but not limited to any exchange-traded fund or other passive index-tracking fund, or any other financial instrument whose objective or return is linked in any way to any Index) without prior written approval of ICE Data.\nICE Data, their affiliates or their third party suppliers have exclusive proprietary rights in the Top Level Data and any information and software received in connection therewith.\nYou shall not use or permit anyone to use the Top Level Data for any unlawful or unauthorized purpose.\nAccess to the Top Level Data is subject to termination in the event that any agreement between FRED and ICE Data terminates for any reason.\nICE Data may enforce its rights against you as the third-party beneficiary of the FRED Services Terms of Use, even though ICE Data is not a party to the FRED Services Terms of Use.\nThe FRED Services Terms of Use, including but limited to the limitation of liability, indemnity and disclaimer provisions, shall extend to third party suppliers..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily, Close ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLH0A2HYBEY",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "6.95",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in ICE BofA Single-B US High Yield Index Effective Yield from the release ICE BofA Indices.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "DFF",
                "WLODLL"
            ],
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "DFF",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the effective federal funds rate (interest rate) have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFF once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series:  Daily Federal Funds Rate from 1928-1954 (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/categories/33951).\n\nThe federal funds rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions trade federal funds (balances held at Federal Reserve Banks) with each other overnight. When a depository institution has surplus balances in its reserve account, it lends to other banks in need of larger balances. In simpler terms, a bank with excess cash, which is often referred to as liquidity, will lend to another bank that needs to quickly raise liquidity. (1) The rate that the borrowing institution pays to the lending institution is determined between the two banks; the weighted average rate for all of these types of negotiations is called the effective federal funds rate.(2) The effective federal funds rate is essentially determined by the market but is influenced by the Federal Reserve through open market operations to reach the federal funds rate target.(2)\n\nThe Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets eight times a year to determine the federal funds target rate. As previously stated, this rate influences the effective federal funds rate through open market operations or by buying and selling of government bonds (government debt).(2) More specifically, the Federal Reserve decreases liquidity by selling government bonds, thereby raising the federal funds rate because banks have less liquidity to trade with other banks. Similarly, the Federal Reserve can increase liquidity by buying government bonds, decreasing the federal funds rate because banks have excess liquidity for trade. Whether the Federal Reserve wants to buy or sell bonds depends on the state of the economy. If the FOMC believes the economy is growing too fast and inflation pressures are inconsistent with the dual mandate of the Federal Reserve, the Committee may set a higher federal funds rate target to temper economic activity. In the opposing scenario, the FOMC may set a lower federal funds rate target to spur greater economic activity. Therefore, the FOMC must observe the current state of the economy to determine the best course of monetary policy that will maximize economic growth while adhering to the dual mandate set forth by Congress. In making its monetary policy decisions, the FOMC considers a wealth of economic data, such as: trends in prices and wages, employment, consumer spending and income, business investments, and foreign exchange markets.\n\nThe federal funds rate is the central interest rate in the U.S. financial market. It influences other interest rates such as the prime rate, which is the rate banks charge their customers with higher credit ratings. Additionally, the federal funds rate indirectly influences longer- term interest rates such as mortgages, loans, and savings, all of which are very important to consumer wealth and confidence.(2)\n\nReferences\n(1) Federal Reserve Bank of New York. \"Federal funds.\" Fedpoints, August 2007.\n(2) Monetary Policy (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy.htm), Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.\n\nFor questions on the data, please contact the data source (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%). For questions on FRED functionality, please contact us here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/).</p>.  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily, 7-Day ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFF",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "4.33",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Federal Funds Effective Rate from the release H.15 Selected Interest Rates.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "WLODLL",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the weekly dollar amount of balances in the accounts of depository institutions in the Federal Reserve Banks have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WLODLL once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h41/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: This account reflects the balances in the accounts that depository institutions have with the Federal Reserve Banks. These balances include reserve balances and service-related balances..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Millions of U.S. Dollars.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, As of Wednesday ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WLODLL",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "3255407.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Liabilities and Capital: Liabilities: Deposits: Other Deposits Held by Depository Institutions: Wednesday Level from the release H.4.1 Factors Affecting Reserve Balances.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "GASREGW",
                "DCOILBRENTEU"
            ],
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "GASREGW",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the average price of regular gas in the US have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: Weighted average based on sampling of approximately 900 retail outlets, 8:00AM Monday. The price represents self-service unless only full-service is available and includes all taxes. See (http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/wrgp/mogas_home_page.html) for further definitions. Regular Gasoline has an antiknock index (average of the research octane rating and the motor octane number) greater than or equal to 85 and less than 88. Octane requirements may vary by altitude..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Dollars per Gallon.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, Ending Monday ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "3.148",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in US Regular All Formulations Gas Price from the release Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "DCOILBRENTEU",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the price of Brent crude oil have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILBRENTEU once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: Definitions, Sources and Explanatory Notes (http://www.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/TblDefs/pet_pri_spt_tbldef2.asp).  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Dollars per Barrel.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILBRENTEU",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "76.23",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Crude Oil Prices: Brent - Europe from the release Spot Prices.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "CASACBW027SBOG",
                "BAMLHE00EHYIOAS"
            ],
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "CASACBW027SBOG",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the cash assets of all commercial US banks have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CASACBW027SBOG once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h8/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: data source (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h8/%). For questions on FRED functionality, please contact us here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/).</p>.  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Billions of U.S. Dollars.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, Ending Wednesday ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CASACBW027SBOG",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "3272.9132",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Cash Assets, All Commercial Banks from the release H.8 Assets and Liabilities of Commercial Banks in the United States.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "BAMLHE00EHYIOAS",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the option-adjusted spread of the ICE BofA Euro High Yield Index, which tracks the performance of below investment grade corporate debt issued in the euro domestic or eurobond markets, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLHE00EHYIOAS once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: This data represents the Option-Adjusted Spread (OAS) of the ICE BofA Euro High Yield Index tracks the performance of Euro denominated below investment grade corporate debt publicly issued in the euro domestic or eurobond markets. Qualifying securities must have a below investment grade rating (based on an average of Moody's, S&P, and Fitch). Qualifying securities must have at least one year remaining term to maturity, a fixed coupon schedule, and a minimum amount outstanding of Euro 100 million. Original issue zero coupon bonds, \"global\" securities (debt issued simultaneously in the eurobond and euro domestic markets), 144a securities and pay-in-kind securities, including toggle notes, qualify for inclusion in the Index. Callable perpetual securities qualify provided they are at least one year from the first call date. Fixed-to-floating rate securities also qualify provided they are callable within the fixed rate period and are at least one year from the last call prior to the date the bond transitions from a fixed to a floating rate security. Defaulted, warrant-bearing and euro legacy currency securities are excluded from the Index.\n\nICE BofA Explains the Construction Methodology of this series as:\nIndex constituents are capitalization-weighted based on their current amount outstanding. With the exception of U.S. mortgage pass-throughs and U.S. structured products (ABS, CMBS and CMOs), accrued interest is calculated assuming next-day settlement. Accrued interest for U.S. mortgage pass-through and U.S. structured products is calculated assuming same-day settlement. Cash flows from bond payments that are received during the month are retained in the index until\nthe end of the month and then are removed as part of the rebalancing. Cash does not earn any reinvestment income while it is held in the Index. The Index is rebalanced on the last calendar day of the month, based on information available up to and including the third business day before the last business day of the month. Issues that meet the qualifying criteria are included in the Index for the following month. Issues that no longer meet the criteria during the course of the month remain in the Index until the next month-end rebalancing at which point they are removed from the Index.\n\nThe ICE BofA OASs are the calculated spreads between a computed OAS index of all bonds in a given rating category and a spot Treasury curve. An OAS index is constructed using each constituent bond's OAS, weighted by market capitalization. When the last calendar day of the month takes place on the weekend, weekend observations will occur as a result of month ending accrued interest adjustments.\n\nCertain indices and index data included in FRED are the property of ICE Data Indices, LLC (\u201cICE DATA\u201d) and used under license. ICE\u00ae IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF ICE DATA OR ITS AFFILIATES AND BOFA\u00ae IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION LICENSED BY BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION AND ITS AFFILIATES (\u201cBOFA\u201d) AND MAY NOT BE USED WITHOUT BOFA\u2019S PRIOR WRITTEN APPROVAL. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL WARRANTIES AND REPRESENTATIONS, EXPRESS AND/OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, INCLUDING WITH REGARD TO THE INDICES, INDEX DATA AND ANY DATA INCLUDED IN, RELATED TO, OR DERIVED THEREFROM. NEITHER ICE DATA, NOR ITS AFFILIATES OR THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY PROVIDERS SHALL BE SUBJECT TO ANY DAMAGES OR LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO THE ADEQUACY, ACCURACY, TIMELINESS OR COMPLETENESS OF THE INDICES OR THE INDEX DATA OR ANY COMPONENT THEREOF. THE INDICES AND INDEX DATA AND ALL COMPONENTS THEREOF ARE PROVIDED ON AN \u201cAS IS\u201d BASIS AND YOUR USE IS AT YOUR OWN RISK. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DO NOT SPONSOR, ENDORSE, OR RECOMMEND FRED, OR ANY OF ITS PRODUCTS OR SERVICES.\n\nCopyright, 2023, ICE Data Indices. Reproduction of this data in any form is prohibited except with the prior written permission of ICE Data Indices.\n\nThe end of day Index values, Index returns, and Index statistics (\u201cTop Level Data\u201d) are being provided for your internal use only and you are not authorized or permitted to publish, distribute or otherwise furnish Top Level Data to any third-party without prior written approval of ICE Data.\nNeither ICE Data, its affiliates nor any of its third party suppliers shall have any liability for the accuracy or completeness of the Top Level Data furnished through FRED, or for delays, interruptions or omissions therein nor for any lost profits, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages.\nThe Top Level Data is not investment advice and a reference to a particular investment or security, a credit rating or any observation concerning a security or investment provided in the Top Level Data is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such investment or security or make any other investment decisions.\nYou shall not use any Indices as a reference index for the purpose of creating financial products (including but not limited to any exchange-traded fund or other passive index-tracking fund, or any other financial instrument whose objective or return is linked in any way to any Index) without prior written approval of ICE Data.\nICE Data, their affiliates or their third party suppliers have exclusive proprietary rights in the Top Level Data and any information and software received in connection therewith.\nYou shall not use or permit anyone to use the Top Level Data for any unlawful or unauthorized purpose.\nAccess to the Top Level Data is subject to termination in the event that any agreement between FRED and ICE Data terminates for any reason.\nICE Data may enforce its rights against you as the third-party beneficiary of the FRED Services Terms of Use, even though ICE Data is not a party to the FRED Services Terms of Use.\nThe FRED Services Terms of Use, including but limited to the limitation of liability, indemnity and disclaimer provisions, shall extend to third party suppliers..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily, Close ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLHE00EHYIOAS",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "2.76",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in ICE BofA Euro High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread from the release ICE BofA Indices.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "GASREGW",
                "T10YIE"
            ],
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "GASREGW",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the average price of regular gas in the US have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: Weighted average based on sampling of approximately 900 retail outlets, 8:00AM Monday. The price represents self-service unless only full-service is available and includes all taxes. See (http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/wrgp/mogas_home_page.html) for further definitions. Regular Gasoline has an antiknock index (average of the research octane rating and the motor octane number) greater than or equal to 85 and less than 88. Octane requirements may vary by altitude..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Dollars per Gallon.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, Ending Monday ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "3.148",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in US Regular All Formulations Gas Price from the release Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "T10YIE",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the US' 10-year breakeven inflation rate have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10YIE once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: The breakeven inflation rate represents a measure of expected inflation derived from 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Securities (BC_10YEAR) and 10-Year Treasury Inflation-Indexed Constant Maturity Securities (TC_10YEAR). The latest value implies what market participants expect inflation to be in the next 10 years, on average.\nStarting with the update on June 21, 2019, the Treasury bond data used in calculating interest rate spreads is obtained directly from the U.S. Treasury Department (https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield)..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10YIE",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "2.43",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate from the release Interest Rate Spreads.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "BAMLH0A0HYM2",
                "T10YIE"
            ],
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "BAMLH0A0HYM2",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the option-adjusted spread for the ICE BofA US High Yield Index, which tracks the performance of corporate debt denominated below investment grade in the US domestic market, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLH0A0HYM2 once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: The ICE BofA Option-Adjusted Spreads (OASs) are the calculated spreads between a computed OAS index of all bonds in a given rating category and a spot Treasury curve. An OAS index is constructed using each constituent bond's OAS, weighted by market capitalization. The ICE BofA High Yield Master II OAS uses an index of bonds that are below investment grade (those rated BB or below).\nThis data represents the ICE BofA US High Yield Index value, which tracks the performance of US dollar denominated below investment grade rated corporate debt publicly issued in the US domestic market. To qualify for inclusion in the index, securities must have a below investment grade rating (based on an average of Moody's, S&P, and Fitch) and an investment grade rated country of risk (based on an average of Moody's, S&P, and Fitch foreign currency long term sovereign debt ratings). Each security must have greater than 1 year of remaining maturity, a fixed coupon schedule, and a minimum amount outstanding of $100 million. Original issue zero coupon bonds, \"global\" securities (debt issued simultaneously in the eurobond and US domestic bond markets), 144a securities and pay-in-kind securities, including toggle notes, qualify for inclusion in the Index. Callable perpetual securities qualify provided they are at least one year from the first call date. Fixed-to-floating rate securities also qualify provided they are callable within the fixed rate period and are at least one year from the last call prior to the date the bond transitions from a fixed to a floating rate security. DRD-eligible and defaulted securities are excluded from the Index.\n\nICE BofA Explains the Construction Methodology of this series as:\nIndex constituents are capitalization-weighted based on their current amount outstanding. With the exception of U.S. mortgage pass-throughs and U.S. structured products (ABS, CMBS and CMOs), accrued interest is calculated assuming next-day settlement. Accrued interest for U.S. mortgage pass-through and U.S. structured products is calculated assuming same-day settlement. Cash flows from bond payments that are received during the month are retained in the index until the end of the month and then are removed as part of the rebalancing. Cash does not earn any reinvestment income while it is held in the Index. The Index is rebalanced on the last calendar day of the month, based on information available up to and including the third business day before the last business day of the month. Issues that meet the qualifying criteria are included in the Index for the following month. Issues that no longer meet the criteria during the course of the month remain in the Index until the next month-end rebalancing at which point they are removed from the Index.\n\nWhen the last calendar day of the month takes place on the weekend, weekend observations will occur as a result of month ending accrued interest adjustments.\n\nCertain indices and index data included in FRED are the property of ICE Data Indices, LLC (\u201cICE DATA\u201d) and used under license. ICE\u00ae IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF ICE DATA OR ITS AFFILIATES AND BOFA\u00ae IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION LICENSED BY BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION AND ITS AFFILIATES (\u201cBOFA\u201d) AND MAY NOT BE USED WITHOUT BOFA\u2019S PRIOR WRITTEN APPROVAL. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL WARRANTIES AND REPRESENTATIONS, EXPRESS AND/OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, INCLUDING WITH REGARD TO THE INDICES, INDEX DATA AND ANY DATA INCLUDED IN, RELATED TO, OR DERIVED THEREFROM. NEITHER ICE DATA, NOR ITS AFFILIATES OR THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY PROVIDERS SHALL BE SUBJECT TO ANY DAMAGES OR LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO THE ADEQUACY, ACCURACY, TIMELINESS OR COMPLETENESS OF THE INDICES OR THE INDEX DATA OR ANY COMPONENT THEREOF. THE INDICES AND INDEX DATA AND ALL COMPONENTS THEREOF ARE PROVIDED ON AN \u201cAS IS\u201d BASIS AND YOUR USE IS AT YOUR OWN RISK. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DO NOT SPONSOR, ENDORSE, OR RECOMMEND FRED, OR ANY OF ITS PRODUCTS OR SERVICES.\n\nCopyright, 2023, ICE Data Indices. Reproduction of this data in any form is prohibited except with the prior written permission of ICE Data Indices.\n\nThe end of day Index values, Index returns, and Index statistics (\u201cTop Level Data\u201d) are being provided for your internal use only and you are not authorized or permitted to publish, distribute or otherwise furnish Top Level Data to any third-party without prior written approval of ICE Data.\nNeither ICE Data, its affiliates nor any of its third party suppliers shall have any liability for the accuracy or completeness of the Top Level Data furnished through FRED, or for delays, interruptions or omissions therein nor for any lost profits, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages.\nThe Top Level Data is not investment advice and a reference to a particular investment or security, a credit rating or any observation concerning a security or investment provided in the Top Level Data is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such investment or security or make any other investment decisions.\nYou shall not use any Indices as a reference index for the purpose of creating financial products (including but not limited to any exchange-traded fund or other passive index-tracking fund, or any other financial instrument whose objective or return is linked in any way to any Index) without prior written approval of ICE Data.\nICE Data, their affiliates or their third party suppliers have exclusive proprietary rights in the Top Level Data and any information and software received in connection therewith.\nYou shall not use or permit anyone to use the Top Level Data for any unlawful or unauthorized purpose.\nAccess to the Top Level Data is subject to termination in the event that any agreement between FRED and ICE Data terminates for any reason.\nICE Data may enforce its rights against you as the third-party beneficiary of the FRED Services Terms of Use, even though ICE Data is not a party to the FRED Services Terms of Use.\nThe FRED Services Terms of Use, including but limited to the limitation of liability, indemnity and disclaimer provisions, shall extend to third party suppliers..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily, Close ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLH0A0HYM2",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "2.62",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread from the release ICE BofA Indices.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "T10YIE",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the US' 10-year breakeven inflation rate have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10YIE once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: The breakeven inflation rate represents a measure of expected inflation derived from 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Securities (BC_10YEAR) and 10-Year Treasury Inflation-Indexed Constant Maturity Securities (TC_10YEAR). The latest value implies what market participants expect inflation to be in the next 10 years, on average.\nStarting with the update on June 21, 2019, the Treasury bond data used in calculating interest rate spreads is obtained directly from the U.S. Treasury Department (https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield)..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10YIE",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "2.43",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate from the release Interest Rate Spreads.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "DBAA",
                "IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE"
            ],
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "DBAA",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will Moody's Seasoned Baa Corporate Bond Yield have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DBAA once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: These instruments are based on bonds with maturities 20 years and above. \n\n\u00a9 2017, Moody\u2019s Corporation, Moody\u2019s Investors Service, Inc., Moody\u2019s Analytics, Inc. and/or their licensors and affiliates (collectively, \u201cMoody\u2019s\u201d).  All rights reserved. Moody\u2019s ratings and other information (\u201cMoody\u2019s Information\u201d) are proprietary to Moody\u2019s and/or its licensors and are protected by copyright and other intellectual property laws.  Moody\u2019s Information is licensed to Client by Moody\u2019s.  MOODY\u2019S INFORMATION MAY NOT BE COPIED OR OTHERWISE REPRODUCED, REPACKAGED, FURTHER TRANSMITTED, TRANSFERRED, DISSEMINATED, REDISTRIBUTED OR RESOLD, OR STORED FOR SUBSEQUENT USE FOR ANY SUCH PURPOSE, IN WHOLE OR IN PART, IN ANY FORM OR MANNER OR BY ANY MEANS WHATSOEVER, BY ANY PERSON WITHOUT MOODY\u2019S PRIOR WRITTEN CONSENT..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DBAA",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "5.99",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Moody's Seasoned Baa Corporate Bond Yield from the release Moody's Daily Corporate Bond Yield Averages.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the number of US software development job postings on Indeed have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: Indeed calculates the percentage change in seasonally-adjusted job postings since February 1, 2020, using a 7-day trailing average. February 1, 2020, is the pre-pandemic baseline. Indeed seasonally adjusts each series based on historical patterns in 2017, 2018, and 2019. Each series, including the national trend, occupational sectors, and sub-national geographies, is seasonally adjusted separately. Indeed switched to this new methodology in January 2021 and now reports all historical data using this new methodology. Historical numbers have been revised and may differ significantly from originally reported values. The new methodology applies a detrended seasonal adjustment factor to the percentage change in job postings.\r\n\r\nIndices are calculated for the U.S., Australia, Canada, Germany, Ireland, France, and the U.K. In addition for the U.S., indices are calculated for states, the largest metro areas by population.\r\n\r\nFor Frequently Asked Questions regarding Indeed Data, visit https://www.hiringlab.org/indeed-data-faq/.\r\n\r\nCopyrighted: Pre-approval required. Contact Indeed to request permission to use the data at their contact information at https://github.com/hiring-lab/data#readme.\r\n\r\nEnd Users are excluded of any warranty and liability on the part of Indeed for the accuracy of the Indeed Data. End Users will refrain from any external distribution of Indeed Data except in oral or written presentations, provided that such portions or derivations are incidental to and supportive of such presentations and, provided further that the End Users shall not distribute or disseminate in such presentations any amount of Indeed Data which could cause such presentations to be susceptible to use substantially as a source of or substitute for Indeed Data. End Users agree to credit Indeed as the source and owner of the Indeed Data when making it available to third parties in any permissible manner as well as in internal use. End Users agree to not sell or otherwise provide the Indeed Data obtained from Licensee to third parties..  The notes from the series: Indeed calculates the index change in seasonally-adjusted job postings since February 1, 2020, the pre-pandemic baseline. Indeed seasonally adjusts each series based on historical patterns in 2017, 2018, and 2019. Each series, including the national trend, occupational sectors, and sub-national geographies, is seasonally adjusted separately. Indeed switched to this new methodology in December 2022 and now reports all historical data using this new methodology. Historical numbers have been revised and may differ significantly from originally reported values. The new methodology applies a detrended seasonal adjustment factor to the index change in job postings. For more information, see Frequently Asked Questions (https://www.hiringlab.org/indeed-data-faq/) regarding Indeed Data.\n\nCopyrighted: Pre-approval required. Contact Indeed to request permission to use the data at their contact information provided here (https://github.com/hiring-lab/data#readme).\n\nEnd Users are excluded of any warranty and liability on the part of Indeed for the accuracy of the Indeed Data. End Users will refrain from any external distribution of Indeed Data except in oral or written presentations, provided that such portions or derivations are incidental to and supportive of such presentations and, provided further that the End Users shall not distribute or disseminate in such presentations any amount of Indeed Data which could cause such presentations to be susceptible to use substantially as a source of, or substitute for Indeed Data. End Users agree to credit Indeed as the source and owner of the Indeed Data when making it available to third parties in any permissible manner as well as in internal use. End Users agree to not sell or otherwise provide the Indeed Data obtained from Licensee to third parties..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Index Feb, 1 2020=100.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily, 7-Day ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "65.76",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Software Development Job Postings on Indeed in the United States from the release Job Postings on Indeed.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "ICSA",
                "OBMMIFHA30YF"
            ],
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "ICSA",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the weekly number of initial unemployment claims have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: An initial claim is a claim filed by an unemployed individual after a separation from an employer. The claim requests a determination of basic eligibility for the Unemployment Insurance program..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Number.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, Ending Saturday ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "213000.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Initial Claims from the release Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "OBMMIFHA30YF",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the 30-year fixed rate FHA mortgage index have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OBMMIFHA30YF once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: Optimal Blue Mortgage Market Indices\u2122 (OBMMI\u2122) is calculated from actual locked rates with consumers across over one-third of all mortgage transactions nationwide. OBMMI includes multiple mortgage pricing indices developed around the most popular products and specific borrower and loan level attributes..  The notes from the series: This index includes rate locks from Federal Housing Authority loans.\n\nOptimal Blue Mortgage Market Indices (https://www2.optimalblue.com/obmmi/)\u2122 (OBMMI\u2122) is calculated from actual locked rates with consumers across over one-third of all mortgage transactions nationwide. OBMMI includes multiple mortgage pricing indices developed around the most popular products and specific borrower and loan level attributes.\n\nEach index is calculated as the average of all appropriate rate locks locked through the Optimal Blue product eligibility and pricing engine on a given day. More details about methodology and definitions are available here (https://www2.optimalblue.com/obmmi/)..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OBMMIFHA30YF",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "6.513",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in 30-Year Fixed Rate FHA Mortgage Index from the release Optimal Blue Mortgage Market Indices.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "D2WLTGAL",
                "DFII5"
            ],
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "D2WLTGAL",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the amount of money held by the US Treasury in its general account at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/D2WLTGAL once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h41/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: N/A.  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Millions of U.S. Dollars.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, As of Wednesday ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/D2WLTGAL",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "809154.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Liabilities and Capital: Liabilities: Deposits: U.S. Treasury General Account: Wednesday Level in Federal Reserve District 2: New York from the release H.4.1 Factors Affecting Reserve Balances.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "DFII5",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the market yield on US treasury securities at 5-year constant maturity, quoted on an investment basis and inflation-indexed, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFII5 once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: H.15 Statistical Release notes (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/default.htm) and the Treasury Yield Curve Methodology (https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/interest-rate-statistics/treasury-yield-curve-methodology).\n\nFor questions on the data, please contact the data source (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%). For questions on FRED functionality, please contact us here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/).</p>.  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFII5",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "1.75",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 5-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis, Inflation-Indexed from the release H.15 Selected Interest Rates.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "DFII5",
                "BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV"
            ],
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "DFII5",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the market yield on US treasury securities at 5-year constant maturity, quoted on an investment basis and inflation-indexed, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFII5 once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: H.15 Statistical Release notes (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/default.htm) and the Treasury Yield Curve Methodology (https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/interest-rate-statistics/treasury-yield-curve-methodology).\n\nFor questions on the data, please contact the data source (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%). For questions on FRED functionality, please contact us here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/).</p>.  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFII5",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "1.75",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 5-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis, Inflation-Indexed from the release H.15 Selected Interest Rates.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the total return of the ICE BofA US Corporate Index, which tracks the performance of corporate debt issued in the US domestic market, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: This data represents the ICE BofA US Corporate Index value, which tracks the performance of US dollar denominated investment grade rated corporate debt publicly issued in the US domestic market. To qualify for inclusion in the index, securities must have an investment grade rating (based on an average of Moody's, S&P, and Fitch) and an investment grade rated country of risk (based on an average of Moody's, S&P, and Fitch foreign currency long term sovereign debt ratings). Each security must have greater than 1 year of remaining maturity, a fixed coupon schedule, and a minimum amount outstanding of $250 million. Original issue zero coupon bonds, \"global\" securities (debt issued simultaneously in the eurobond and US\ndomestic bond markets), 144a securities and pay-in-kind securities, including toggle notes, qualify for inclusion in the Index. Callable perpetual securities qualify provided they are at least one year from the first call date. Fixed-to-floating rate securities also qualify provided they are callable within the fixed rate period and are at least one year from the last call prior to the date the bond transitions from a fixed to a floating rate security. DRD-eligible and defaulted securities are excluded from the Index.\n\nICE BofA Explains the Construction Methodology of this series as:\nIndex constituents are capitalization-weighted based on their current amount outstanding. With the exception of U.S. mortgage pass-throughs and U.S. structured products (ABS, CMBS and CMOs), accrued interest is calculated assuming next-day settlement. Accrued interest for U.S. mortgage pass-through and U.S. structured products is calculated assuming same-day settlement. Cash flows from bond payments that are received during the month are retained in the index until the end of the month and then are removed as part of the rebalancing. Cash does not earn any reinvestment income while it is held in the Index. The Index is rebalanced on the last calendar day of the month, based on information available up to and including the third business day before the last business day of the month. Issues that meet the qualifying criteria are included in the Index for the following month. Issues that no longer meet the criteria during the course of the month remain in the Index until the next month-end rebalancing at which point they are removed from the Index.\n\nWhen the last calendar day of the month takes place on the weekend, weekend observations will occur as a result of month ending accrued interest adjustments.\n\nCertain indices and index data included in FRED are the property of ICE Data Indices, LLC (\u201cICE DATA\u201d) and used under license. ICE\u00ae IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF ICE DATA OR ITS AFFILIATES AND BOFA\u00ae IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION LICENSED BY BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION AND ITS AFFILIATES (\u201cBOFA\u201d) AND MAY NOT BE USED WITHOUT BOFA\u2019S PRIOR WRITTEN APPROVAL. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL WARRANTIES AND REPRESENTATIONS, EXPRESS AND/OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, INCLUDING WITH REGARD TO THE INDICES, INDEX DATA AND ANY DATA INCLUDED IN, RELATED TO, OR DERIVED THEREFROM. NEITHER ICE DATA, NOR ITS AFFILIATES OR THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY PROVIDERS SHALL BE SUBJECT TO ANY DAMAGES OR LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO THE ADEQUACY, ACCURACY, TIMELINESS OR COMPLETENESS OF THE INDICES OR THE INDEX DATA OR ANY COMPONENT THEREOF. THE INDICES AND INDEX DATA AND ALL COMPONENTS THEREOF ARE PROVIDED ON AN \u201cAS IS\u201d BASIS AND YOUR USE IS AT YOUR OWN RISK. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DO NOT SPONSOR, ENDORSE, OR RECOMMEND FRED, OR ANY OF ITS PRODUCTS OR SERVICES.\n\nCopyright, 2023, ICE Data Indices. Reproduction of this data in any form is prohibited except with the prior written permission of ICE Data Indices.\n\nThe end of day Index values, Index returns, and Index statistics (\u201cTop Level Data\u201d) are being provided for your internal use only and you are not authorized or permitted to publish, distribute or otherwise furnish Top Level Data to any third-party without prior written approval of ICE Data.\nNeither ICE Data, its affiliates nor any of its third party suppliers shall have any liability for the accuracy or completeness of the Top Level Data furnished through FRED, or for delays, interruptions or omissions therein nor for any lost profits, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages.\nThe Top Level Data is not investment advice and a reference to a particular investment or security, a credit rating or any observation concerning a security or investment provided in the Top Level Data is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such investment or security or make any other investment decisions.\nYou shall not use any Indices as a reference index for the purpose of creating financial products (including but not limited to any exchange-traded fund or other passive index-tracking fund, or any other financial instrument whose objective or return is linked in any way to any Index) without prior written approval of ICE Data.\nICE Data, their affiliates or their third party suppliers have exclusive proprietary rights in the Top Level Data and any information and software received in connection therewith.\nYou shall not use or permit anyone to use the Top Level Data for any unlawful or unauthorized purpose.\nAccess to the Top Level Data is subject to termination in the event that any agreement between FRED and ICE Data terminates for any reason.\nICE Data may enforce its rights against you as the third-party beneficiary of the FRED Services Terms of Use, even though ICE Data is not a party to the FRED Services Terms of Use.\nThe FRED Services Terms of Use, including but limited to the limitation of liability, indemnity and disclaimer provisions, shall extend to third party suppliers..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Index.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily, Close ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "3359.67",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in ICE BofA US Corporate Index Total Return Index Value from the release ICE BofA Indices.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "BAMLC0A2CAAEY",
                "WGS1YR"
            ],
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "BAMLC0A2CAAEY",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the effective yield of securities with an investment grade rating of AA in the ICE BofA US Corporate Index, which tracks the performance of corporate debt issued in the US domestic market, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLC0A2CAAEY once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: This data represents the effective yield of the ICE BofA AA US Corporate Index, a subset of the ICE BofA US Corporate Master Index tracking the performance of US dollar denominated investment grade rated corporate debt publicly issued in the US domestic market. This subset includes all securities with a given investment grade rating AA. When the last calendar day of the month takes place on the weekend, weekend observations will occur as a result of month ending accrued interest adjustments.\n\nCertain indices and index data included in FRED are the property of ICE Data Indices, LLC (\u201cICE DATA\u201d) and used under license. ICE\u00ae IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF ICE DATA OR ITS AFFILIATES AND BOFA\u00ae IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION LICENSED BY BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION AND ITS AFFILIATES (\u201cBOFA\u201d) AND MAY NOT BE USED WITHOUT BOFA\u2019S PRIOR WRITTEN APPROVAL. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL WARRANTIES AND REPRESENTATIONS, EXPRESS AND/OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, INCLUDING WITH REGARD TO THE INDICES, INDEX DATA AND ANY DATA INCLUDED IN, RELATED TO, OR DERIVED THEREFROM. NEITHER ICE DATA, NOR ITS AFFILIATES OR THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY PROVIDERS SHALL BE SUBJECT TO ANY DAMAGES OR LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO THE ADEQUACY, ACCURACY, TIMELINESS OR COMPLETENESS OF THE INDICES OR THE INDEX DATA OR ANY COMPONENT THEREOF. THE INDICES AND INDEX DATA AND ALL COMPONENTS THEREOF ARE PROVIDED ON AN \u201cAS IS\u201d BASIS AND YOUR USE IS AT YOUR OWN RISK. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DO NOT SPONSOR, ENDORSE, OR RECOMMEND FRED, OR ANY OF ITS PRODUCTS OR SERVICES.\n\nCopyright, 2023, ICE Data Indices. Reproduction of this data in any form is prohibited except with the prior written permission of ICE Data Indices.\n\nThe end of day Index values, Index returns, and Index statistics (\u201cTop Level Data\u201d) are being provided for your internal use only and you are not authorized or permitted to publish, distribute or otherwise furnish Top Level Data to any third-party without prior written approval of ICE Data.\nNeither ICE Data, its affiliates nor any of its third party suppliers shall have any liability for the accuracy or completeness of the Top Level Data furnished through FRED, or for delays, interruptions or omissions therein nor for any lost profits, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages.\nThe Top Level Data is not investment advice and a reference to a particular investment or security, a credit rating or any observation concerning a security or investment provided in the Top Level Data is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such investment or security or make any other investment decisions.\nYou shall not use any Indices as a reference index for the purpose of creating financial products (including but not limited to any exchange-traded fund or other passive index-tracking fund, or any other financial instrument whose objective or return is linked in any way to any Index) without prior written approval of ICE Data.\nICE Data, their affiliates or their third party suppliers have exclusive proprietary rights in the Top Level Data and any information and software received in connection therewith.\nYou shall not use or permit anyone to use the Top Level Data for any unlawful or unauthorized purpose.\nAccess to the Top Level Data is subject to termination in the event that any agreement between FRED and ICE Data terminates for any reason.\nICE Data may enforce its rights against you as the third-party beneficiary of the FRED Services Terms of Use, even though ICE Data is not a party to the FRED Services Terms of Use.\nThe FRED Services Terms of Use, including but limited to the limitation of liability, indemnity and disclaimer provisions, shall extend to third party suppliers..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily, Close ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLC0A2CAAEY",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "4.97",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in ICE BofA AA US Corporate Index Effective Yield from the release ICE BofA Indices.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "WGS1YR",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the market yield on US treasury securities at 1-year constant maturity, quoted on an investment basis, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WGS1YR once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: H.15 Statistical Release notes (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/default.htm) and the Treasury Yield Curve Methodology (https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/interest-rate-statistics/treasury-yield-curve-methodology).\n\nFor questions on the data, please contact the data source (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%). For questions on FRED functionality, please contact us here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/).</p>.  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, Ending Friday ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WGS1YR",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "4.26",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 1-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis from the release H.15 Selected Interest Rates.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "DFII5",
                "WORAL"
            ],
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "DFII5",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the market yield on US treasury securities at 5-year constant maturity, quoted on an investment basis and inflation-indexed, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFII5 once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: H.15 Statistical Release notes (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/default.htm) and the Treasury Yield Curve Methodology (https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/interest-rate-statistics/treasury-yield-curve-methodology).\n\nFor questions on the data, please contact the data source (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%). For questions on FRED functionality, please contact us here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/).</p>.  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFII5",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "1.75",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 5-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis, Inflation-Indexed from the release H.15 Selected Interest Rates.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "WORAL",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the weekly dollar amount associated with Federal Reserve repurchase agreements have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WORAL once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h41/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: Repurchase agreements reflect some of the Federal Reserve's temporary open market operations. Repurchase agreements are transactions in which securities are purchased from a primary dealer under an agreement to sell them back to the dealer on a specified date in the future. The difference between the purchase price and the repurchase price reflects an interest payment. The Federal Reserve may enter into repurchase agreements for up to 65 business days, but the typical maturity is between one and 14 days. Federal Reserve repurchase agreements supply reserve balances to the banking system for the length of the agreement. The Federal Reserve employs a naming convention for these transactions based on the perspective of the primary dealers: the dealers receive cash while the Federal Reserve receives the collateral..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Millions of U.S. Dollars.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, As of Wednesday ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WORAL",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "100.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Assets: Other: Repurchase Agreements: Wednesday Level from the release H.4.1 Factors Affecting Reserve Balances.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "RRPONTTLD",
                "WDTGAL"
            ],
            "source": "fred",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "RRPONTTLD",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the aggregated daily value of securities sold by the Federal Reserve in temporary open market operations have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRPONTTLD once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: This series is constructed as the aggregated daily amount value of the RRP transactions reported by the New York Fed as part of the Temporary Open Market Operations.\n\nTemporary open market operations involve short-term repurchase and reverse repurchase agreements that are designed to temporarily add or drain reserves available to the banking system and influence day-to-day trading in the federal funds market.\n\nA reverse repurchase agreement (known as reverse repo or RRP) is a transaction in which the New York Fed under the authorization and direction of the Federal Open Market Committee sells a security to an eligible counterparty with an agreement to repurchase that same security at a specified price at a specific time in the future. For these transactions, eligible securities are U.S. Treasury instruments, federal agency debt and the mortgage-backed securities issued or fully guaranteed by federal agencies.\nFor more information, see https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/rrp_faq.html.  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Billions of US Dollars.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRPONTTLD",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "73.196",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Overnight Reverse Repurchase Agreements: Total Securities Sold by the Federal Reserve in the Temporary Open Market Operations from the release Temporary Open Market Operations.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "WDTGAL",
                    "source": "fred",
                    "question": "Will the total dollar amount of deposits in the US Treasury's general accounts of Federal Reserve Banks, other than reserve balances, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WDTGAL once the data is published.",
                    "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h41/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: This account is the primary operational account of the U.S. Treasury at the Federal Reserve. Virtually all U.S. government disbursements are made from this account. Some tax receipts, primarily individual and other tax payments made directly to the Treasury, are deposited in this account, and it is also used to collect funds from sales of Treasury debt..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Millions of U.S. Dollars.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, As of Wednesday ",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WDTGAL",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "809154.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest value released in Liabilities and Capital: Liabilities: Deposits with F.R. Banks, Other Than Reserve Balances: U.S. Treasury, General Account: Wednesday Level from the release H.4.1 Factors Affecting Reserve Balances.",
                    "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "b70970a0440d1b7dedde9220fb60ffe3f2ed8b00ef12b45341772046caa12092",
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Erigaisi Arjun have a FIDE ranking on {resolution_date} as high or higher than their ranking on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings on the resolution date.",
            "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "4.0",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Erigaisi Arjun's FIDE ranking.",
            "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8",
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Aleksandra Goryachkina have a FIDE ranking on {resolution_date} as high or higher than their ranking on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings on the resolution date.",
            "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "5.0",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Aleksandra Goryachkina's FIDE ranking.",
            "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "6f7f685d66034654244163c275aa8d4e22e72015e99d02a1161c5bc5e88ba444",
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Ding Liren have a FIDE ranking on {resolution_date} as high or higher than their ranking on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings on the resolution date.",
            "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "17.0",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Ding Liren's FIDE ranking.",
            "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "25e629b0a54ee795ccbb7c44968f319952cae286525fa43501a290151a3f1d6c",
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Aleksandra Goryachkina have an Elo rating on {resolution_date} that's at least 1% higher than on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings on the resolution date.",
            "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "2546.0",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Aleksandra Goryachkina's ELO rating.",
            "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "c8c9d8e957b21aad9595e05489ef0a157621c079c5666495bb702c6be0582125",
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Divya Deshmukh have an Elo rating on {resolution_date} that's at least 1% higher than on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings on the resolution date.",
            "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "2490.0",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Divya Deshmukh's ELO rating.",
            "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "1b12215032357c20078f36029eca8e2c67788d7834cba572d712b7d769a288ee",
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Koneru Humpy have an Elo rating on {resolution_date} that's at least 1% higher than on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings on the resolution date.",
            "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "2523.0",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Koneru Humpy's ELO rating.",
            "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "b8181fa81ec7af1afc15aa56a2286320fcea592dacb469500b309fda8c76cb7a",
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Yuliia Osmak have an Elo rating on {resolution_date} that's at least 1% higher than on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings on the resolution date.",
            "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "2467.0",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Yuliia Osmak's ELO rating.",
            "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "5ca04a3a78c7ffe5817f080f95e883a83edd6a1471caba48d435448a2d879b52",
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Kliment Kolesnikov still hold the world record for 50m backstroke in long course (50 metres) swimming pools on {resolution_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_world_records_in_swimming on the resolution date.",
            "background": "The world records in swimming are ratified by World Aquatics (formerly known as FINA), the international governing body of swimming. Records can be set in long course (50 metres) or short course (25 metres) swimming pools.\nThe ratification process is described in FINA Rule SW12, and involves submission of paperwork certifying the accuracy of the timing system and the length of the pool, satisfaction of FINA rules regarding swimwear and a negative doping test by the swimmer(s) involved. Records can be set at intermediate distances in an individual race and for the first leg of a relay race. Records which have not yet been fully ratified are marked with a '#' symbol in these lists.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_world_records_in_swimming",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "50m backstroke",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Kliment Kolesnikov is a record holder in the 50m backstroke.",
            "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "c8cc0816ce50a7fc018eccb7e6ed19628dc1f56e1cda26aca4b8f09c4edc7beb",
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Leinier Dominguez have a FIDE ranking on {resolution_date} as high or higher than their ranking on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings on the resolution date.",
            "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "13.0",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Leinier Dominguez's FIDE ranking.",
            "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "cdca2eb7619f3a2c6a954fe6a316587bcfb568e3ef409d92b8eabe5dd2515bc3",
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Shakhriyar Mamedyarov have an Elo rating on {resolution_date} that's at least 1% higher than on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings on the resolution date.",
            "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "2731.0",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Shakhriyar Mamedyarov's ELO rating.",
            "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "15a2309ff037755f0cfaabde0da65f0a646573fb07183b089529109298a8d195",
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Ju Wenjun have a FIDE ranking on {resolution_date} as high or higher than their ranking on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings on the resolution date.",
            "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "2.0",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Ju Wenjun's FIDE ranking.",
            "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "98293d96d72cc181fde43e3d8c9692a88f882f11135d9b971d18fdedba497ada",
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Alina Kashlinskaya have a FIDE ranking on {resolution_date} as high or higher than their ranking on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings on the resolution date.",
            "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "12.0",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Alina Kashlinskaya's FIDE ranking.",
            "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "20f3f9c8809dfbaae777ef9dd8323634d2af725859096d9c5fb0689499a5b344",
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Quang Liem Le have a FIDE ranking on {resolution_date} as high or higher than their ranking on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings on the resolution date.",
            "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "15.0",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Quang Liem Le's FIDE ranking.",
            "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "044affc3cf8e3c981c601f7e8fc6a1144659454792c35dede40dde1a5ab85e60",
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Nino Batsiashvili have an Elo rating on {resolution_date} that's at least 1% higher than on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings on the resolution date.",
            "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "2470.0",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Nino Batsiashvili's ELO rating.",
            "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "61c0fb3703e68cee2439afd5c2d71522bc6649a1fa154491f58981456fa8ab68",
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Aaron Peirsol still hold the world record for 200m backstroke in long course (50 metres) swimming pools on {resolution_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_world_records_in_swimming on the resolution date.",
            "background": "The world records in swimming are ratified by World Aquatics (formerly known as FINA), the international governing body of swimming. Records can be set in long course (50 metres) or short course (25 metres) swimming pools.\nThe ratification process is described in FINA Rule SW12, and involves submission of paperwork certifying the accuracy of the timing system and the length of the pool, satisfaction of FINA rules regarding swimwear and a negative doping test by the swimmer(s) involved. Records can be set at intermediate distances in an individual race and for the first leg of a relay race. Records which have not yet been fully ratified are marked with a '#' symbol in these lists.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_world_records_in_swimming",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "200m backstroke",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Aaron Peirsol is a record holder in the 200m backstroke.",
            "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "e26862fb0adcb116476d35f89b9a1e32d5136aba16ec6d2f93a85f2ae272aa3f",
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Meri Arabidze have an Elo rating on {resolution_date} that's at least 1% higher than on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings on the resolution date.",
            "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "2458.0",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Meri Arabidze's ELO rating.",
            "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "3ff636ffa947b8f0f3adb55964cd75294716abea2c27933ad89d7abff42d633e",
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Erigaisi Arjun have an Elo rating on {resolution_date} that's at least 1% higher than on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings on the resolution date.",
            "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "2778.0",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Erigaisi Arjun's ELO rating.",
            "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "6060e34deeed7baaa22d71829e587cdc132e3ec6bbd738e46ca8c8a6536d30db",
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Parham Maghsoodloo have a FIDE ranking on {resolution_date} as high or higher than their ranking on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings on the resolution date.",
            "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "20.0",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Parham Maghsoodloo's FIDE ranking.",
            "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "ebb4e1e85bed81266e94dda8e84eafe1479d5697f850792d84b5fab7251f483f",
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Mollie O'Callaghan still hold the world record for 200m freestyle in long course (50 metres) swimming pools on {resolution_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_world_records_in_swimming on the resolution date.",
            "background": "The world records in swimming are ratified by World Aquatics (formerly known as FINA), the international governing body of swimming. Records can be set in long course (50 metres) or short course (25 metres) swimming pools.\nThe ratification process is described in FINA Rule SW12, and involves submission of paperwork certifying the accuracy of the timing system and the length of the pool, satisfaction of FINA rules regarding swimwear and a negative doping test by the swimmer(s) involved. Records can be set at intermediate distances in an individual race and for the first leg of a relay race. Records which have not yet been fully ratified are marked with a '#' symbol in these lists.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_world_records_in_swimming",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "200m freestyle",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Mollie O'Callaghan is a record holder in the 200m freestyle.",
            "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "242e17fa4cf02fba614df523a64f8527f7776f3443e6281386b5eddcd84a097c",
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Hans Niemann have a FIDE ranking on {resolution_date} as high or higher than their ranking on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings on the resolution date.",
            "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "18.0",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Hans Niemann's FIDE ranking.",
            "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "c28f340263644425dd87c3cf915351620e452358d2118a20e27fb20ba76cfa64",
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Nana Dzagnidze have a FIDE ranking on {resolution_date} as high or higher than their ranking on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings on the resolution date.",
            "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "7.0",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Nana Dzagnidze's FIDE ranking.",
            "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "5452de11a0b8b0c855feb8d52ee116aa4b1ac3b7e719039ab35667c34cf2552b",
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Nodirbek Abdusattorov have a FIDE ranking on {resolution_date} as high or higher than their ranking on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings on the resolution date.",
            "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "6.0",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Nodirbek Abdusattorov's FIDE ranking.",
            "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936",
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Nodirbek Abdusattorov have an Elo rating on {resolution_date} that's at least 1% higher than on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings on the resolution date.",
            "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "2766.0",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Nodirbek Abdusattorov's ELO rating.",
            "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "2f4e9bef478eb0032ddb58280d4bcdfa31f5934dccd230a28cc22eaaae6f3411",
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Quang Liem Le have an Elo rating on {resolution_date} that's at least 1% higher than on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings on the resolution date.",
            "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "2739.0",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Quang Liem Le's ELO rating.",
            "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb",
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "According to Wikipedia, will R\u016bta Meilutyt\u0117 still hold the world record for 50m breaststroke in long course (50 metres) swimming pools on {resolution_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_world_records_in_swimming on the resolution date.",
            "background": "The world records in swimming are ratified by World Aquatics (formerly known as FINA), the international governing body of swimming. Records can be set in long course (50 metres) or short course (25 metres) swimming pools.\nThe ratification process is described in FINA Rule SW12, and involves submission of paperwork certifying the accuracy of the timing system and the length of the pool, satisfaction of FINA rules regarding swimwear and a negative doping test by the swimmer(s) involved. Records can be set at intermediate distances in an individual race and for the first leg of a relay race. Records which have not yet been fully ratified are marked with a '#' symbol in these lists.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_world_records_in_swimming",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "50m breaststroke",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "R\u016bta Meilutyt\u0117 is a record holder in the 50m breaststroke.",
            "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "d2daa62a41e7a5eaf55204881cd8e187dd02762971677ed9b012c6a3c441ed11",
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Hikaru Nakamura have a FIDE ranking on {resolution_date} as high or higher than their ranking on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings on the resolution date.",
            "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "3.0",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Hikaru Nakamura's FIDE ranking.",
            "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "76eefc47356f6f8254bbc134dc46e8127fca413bb79a551af09a829cfb2603b0",
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Vincent Keymer have an Elo rating on {resolution_date} that's at least 1% higher than on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings on the resolution date.",
            "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "2731.0",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Vincent Keymer's ELO rating.",
            "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "20efdec28913ecfb1e3a3e26ad2c99e1b4d7ad3f43b5a6202c46f9c277c17406",
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Paul Biedermann still hold the world record for 200m freestyle in long course (50 metres) swimming pools on {resolution_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_world_records_in_swimming on the resolution date.",
            "background": "The world records in swimming are ratified by World Aquatics (formerly known as FINA), the international governing body of swimming. Records can be set in long course (50 metres) or short course (25 metres) swimming pools.\nThe ratification process is described in FINA Rule SW12, and involves submission of paperwork certifying the accuracy of the timing system and the length of the pool, satisfaction of FINA rules regarding swimwear and a negative doping test by the swimmer(s) involved. Records can be set at intermediate distances in an individual race and for the first leg of a relay race. Records which have not yet been fully ratified are marked with a '#' symbol in these lists.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_world_records_in_swimming",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "200m freestyle",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Paul Biedermann is a record holder in the 200m freestyle.",
            "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "5e5fae96f10319998728a48a5c42d909cef7cce4a39c194ac10e68c9a35ee023",
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Nino Batsiashvili have a FIDE ranking on {resolution_date} as high or higher than their ranking on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings on the resolution date.",
            "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "19.0",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Nino Batsiashvili's FIDE ranking.",
            "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "c90a910e5ea0ef3bdaedf23ce591e20a8da2df5b88c5b04e6264761959ddfcc0",
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Andriy Govorov still hold the world record for 50m butterfly in long course (50 metres) swimming pools on {resolution_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_world_records_in_swimming on the resolution date.",
            "background": "The world records in swimming are ratified by World Aquatics (formerly known as FINA), the international governing body of swimming. Records can be set in long course (50 metres) or short course (25 metres) swimming pools.\nThe ratification process is described in FINA Rule SW12, and involves submission of paperwork certifying the accuracy of the timing system and the length of the pool, satisfaction of FINA rules regarding swimwear and a negative doping test by the swimmer(s) involved. Records can be set at intermediate distances in an individual race and for the first leg of a relay race. Records which have not yet been fully ratified are marked with a '#' symbol in these lists.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_world_records_in_swimming",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "50m butterfly",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Andriy Govorov is a record holder in the 50m butterfly.",
            "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "e5ef5991f0340690d21eec9e1fbc20d3b80d3d6dfba96b040c306080ae2ae990",
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Harika Dronavalli have an Elo rating on {resolution_date} that's at least 1% higher than on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings on the resolution date.",
            "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "2489.0",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Harika Dronavalli's ELO rating.",
            "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92",
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Gukesh D have an Elo rating on {resolution_date} that's at least 1% higher than on {forecast_due_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings on the resolution date.",
            "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "2794.0",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Gukesh D's ELO rating.",
            "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "4e9244fd658bf1e286f52541539fbdaaf2440059a622bd6966f082167b4ce179",
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Scabies by {resolution_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases on the resolution date.",
            "background": "According to Wikipedia, Scabies is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "No",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Vaccine status for Scabies. 'No' means that a vaccine has not yet been created. 'Yes' means that it has.",
            "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "a2805fcb003dc3297ab7d0f82651c385d6471af5692612c8848e94fea5a1d312",
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Molluscum contagiosum (MC) by {resolution_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases on the resolution date.",
            "background": "According to Wikipedia, Molluscum contagiosum (MC) is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "No",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Vaccine status for Molluscum contagiosum (MC). 'No' means that a vaccine has not yet been created. 'Yes' means that it has.",
            "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "5b1e224969367d47ae6856711b3f9d1335671d330c6ad42ac64f2803cf2a350f",
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Helicobacter pylori infection by {resolution_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases on the resolution date.",
            "background": "According to Wikipedia, Helicobacter pylori infection is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "No",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Vaccine status for Helicobacter pylori infection. 'No' means that a vaccine has not yet been created. 'Yes' means that it has.",
            "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "d3c5e3b681d6299c57923b312b8886ccfcff2e8a46d138eecdca45f41df8bed0",
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Erythema infectiosum (Fifth disease) by {resolution_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases on the resolution date.",
            "background": "According to Wikipedia, Erythema infectiosum (Fifth disease) is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "No",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Vaccine status for Erythema infectiosum (Fifth disease). 'No' means that a vaccine has not yet been created. 'Yes' means that it has.",
            "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "b7cb5b21a17ddf6ef798011d1496bb1441ccbe7bfde036c17f0b71010b1b971a",
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Trachoma by {resolution_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases on the resolution date.",
            "background": "According to Wikipedia, Trachoma is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "No",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Vaccine status for Trachoma. 'No' means that a vaccine has not yet been created. 'Yes' means that it has.",
            "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "7b7a730c70c28c718432769ece59b4227d805ae20a4e4ee71ec62c8ef3915ead",
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Trichinosis by {resolution_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases on the resolution date.",
            "background": "According to Wikipedia, Trichinosis is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "No",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Vaccine status for Trichinosis. 'No' means that a vaccine has not yet been created. 'Yes' means that it has.",
            "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "87e7a67add0d7b22541fc2a586dc693df417e2805ed619aa45acec927e0ee3e5",
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Actinomycosis by {resolution_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases on the resolution date.",
            "background": "According to Wikipedia, Actinomycosis is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "No",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Vaccine status for Actinomycosis. 'No' means that a vaccine has not yet been created. 'Yes' means that it has.",
            "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "2f9337f5d2cc530629386a651bc047c7b76cb3d2fa3222a2fca72a8a7a20e7b2",
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Toxic shock syndrome (TSS) by {resolution_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases on the resolution date.",
            "background": "According to Wikipedia, Toxic shock syndrome (TSS) is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "No",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Vaccine status for Toxic shock syndrome (TSS). 'No' means that a vaccine has not yet been created. 'Yes' means that it has.",
            "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "39d7aa6828192b95302b58e3d018da55ff26535fcef6dda5a46484622347bda6",
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Food poisoning by Clostridium perfringens by {resolution_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases on the resolution date.",
            "background": "According to Wikipedia, Food poisoning by Clostridium perfringens is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "No",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Vaccine status for Food poisoning by Clostridium perfringens. 'No' means that a vaccine has not yet been created. 'Yes' means that it has.",
            "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "16dd2567084591088af911d551c22e004d2dba82db5d31be3f51de8f8b3dd607",
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Rickettsial infection by {resolution_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases on the resolution date.",
            "background": "According to Wikipedia, Rickettsial infection is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "No",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Vaccine status for Rickettsial infection. 'No' means that a vaccine has not yet been created. 'Yes' means that it has.",
            "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "1f8f1bf444de5afdcc4e19bb6f62c56a8e8267992075876bbab5da68fd892eb0",
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Rhinovirus infection by {resolution_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases on the resolution date.",
            "background": "According to Wikipedia, Rhinovirus infection is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "No",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Vaccine status for Rhinovirus infection. 'No' means that a vaccine has not yet been created. 'Yes' means that it has.",
            "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "74f2b04743e373fb503773e173540041879c53b80cfe756dd054a124caee9860",
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Filariasis by {resolution_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases on the resolution date.",
            "background": "According to Wikipedia, Filariasis is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "No",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Vaccine status for Filariasis. 'No' means that a vaccine has not yet been created. 'Yes' means that it has.",
            "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "55c2216ba2f2608f6836da87412e72bcc1a20cb8fe88489f6dd706f6b78cb434",
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) by {resolution_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases on the resolution date.",
            "background": "According to Wikipedia, Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "No",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Vaccine status for Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS). 'No' means that a vaccine has not yet been created. 'Yes' means that it has.",
            "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "bd9d8a912fb3f75a06cd3f5d063e80c1f8e47a6d6955199039ccf9ba15b6e34b",
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Primary amoebic meningoencephalitis (PAM) by {resolution_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases on the resolution date.",
            "background": "According to Wikipedia, Primary amoebic meningoencephalitis (PAM) is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "No",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Vaccine status for Primary amoebic meningoencephalitis (PAM). 'No' means that a vaccine has not yet been created. 'Yes' means that it has.",
            "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "c834eeadf075bd754f6beed34c60b69b3bb2937378d694eaadfd3bc2ab0eb99b",
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Vibrio vulnificus infection by {resolution_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases on the resolution date.",
            "background": "According to Wikipedia, Vibrio vulnificus infection is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "No",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Vaccine status for Vibrio vulnificus infection. 'No' means that a vaccine has not yet been created. 'Yes' means that it has.",
            "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "242926fea271734ef8d4920e532414b38dbfdf301516fd9f0c988abd0ce777dd",
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Respiratory syncytial virus infection by {resolution_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases on the resolution date.",
            "background": "According to Wikipedia, Respiratory syncytial virus infection is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "No",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Vaccine status for Respiratory syncytial virus infection. 'No' means that a vaccine has not yet been created. 'Yes' means that it has.",
            "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "eda8e5b43e0db651905667586e1e72a7d5679cbb5b3ef4dd6faa6444759e2dee",
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Legionellosis (Legionnaires' disease) by {resolution_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases on the resolution date.",
            "background": "According to Wikipedia, Legionellosis (Legionnaires' disease) is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "No",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Vaccine status for Legionellosis (Legionnaires' disease). 'No' means that a vaccine has not yet been created. 'Yes' means that it has.",
            "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "3cc7f7be1cc6927ebdfa620d34c53a686644033aa555eb47ca7e251c6143d678",
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Botulism (and Infant botulism) by {resolution_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases on the resolution date.",
            "background": "According to Wikipedia, Botulism (and Infant botulism) is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "No",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Vaccine status for Botulism (and Infant botulism). 'No' means that a vaccine has not yet been created. 'Yes' means that it has.",
            "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "3a0d9f56fdc0fcc8e90b84afb5f0e7ab02f2751e91cc44d17e67ae9187d17aea",
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Diphyllobothriasis by {resolution_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases on the resolution date.",
            "background": "According to Wikipedia, Diphyllobothriasis is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "No",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Vaccine status for Diphyllobothriasis. 'No' means that a vaccine has not yet been created. 'Yes' means that it has.",
            "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "aaaa39a987ff6041625a0717c12963cd476cd1521fb0dadf8ad8608cb603f654",
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Anisakiasis by {resolution_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases on the resolution date.",
            "background": "According to Wikipedia, Anisakiasis is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "No",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Vaccine status for Anisakiasis. 'No' means that a vaccine has not yet been created. 'Yes' means that it has.",
            "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "d19e7dae2cc81341d2a1863ee45319a0430d345e8e2d9a987c3d4f2659dee954",
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Chlamydia by {resolution_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases on the resolution date.",
            "background": "According to Wikipedia, Chlamydia is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "No",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Vaccine status for Chlamydia. 'No' means that a vaccine has not yet been created. 'Yes' means that it has.",
            "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "e2ebe8c99e10583715b46ee35c93275a9a6b5721f812e6ce07f996daa8159732",
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Tinea cruris (Jock itch) by {resolution_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases on the resolution date.",
            "background": "According to Wikipedia, Tinea cruris (Jock itch) is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "No",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Vaccine status for Tinea cruris (Jock itch). 'No' means that a vaccine has not yet been created. 'Yes' means that it has.",
            "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "6b5ae258d99205be0f8e1e4396d34caa191b640b860ce569345d93f7f4634adc",
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Mycoplasma pneumonia by {resolution_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases on the resolution date.",
            "background": "According to Wikipedia, Mycoplasma pneumonia is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "No",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Vaccine status for Mycoplasma pneumonia. 'No' means that a vaccine has not yet been created. 'Yes' means that it has.",
            "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "959b6aaf209f8aeebc8d606028930c9ffdcf7cc7c218762ceae689872c37e331",
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Tinea unguium (onychomycosis) by {resolution_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases on the resolution date.",
            "background": "According to Wikipedia, Tinea unguium (onychomycosis) is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "No",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Vaccine status for Tinea unguium (onychomycosis). 'No' means that a vaccine has not yet been created. 'Yes' means that it has.",
            "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "4093ea3dcb75afc668a669812c21296be9ce9b93593413b060d51c61133ac505",
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Human bocavirus infection by {resolution_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases on the resolution date.",
            "background": "According to Wikipedia, Human bocavirus infection is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "No",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Vaccine status for Human bocavirus infection. 'No' means that a vaccine has not yet been created. 'Yes' means that it has.",
            "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "2525a40a08e2116a34cd952e86bf0817cfb4431a1cb2e88a645dc5587290a185",
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Kingella kingae infection by {resolution_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases on the resolution date.",
            "background": "According to Wikipedia, Kingella kingae infection is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "No",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Vaccine status for Kingella kingae infection. 'No' means that a vaccine has not yet been created. 'Yes' means that it has.",
            "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "49f838083a15df2741b0b3ca6a9964e621d3f71ad50793a0b6cb7ad4745cc390",
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Lassa fever by {resolution_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases on the resolution date.",
            "background": "According to Wikipedia, Lassa fever is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "No",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Vaccine status for Lassa fever. 'No' means that a vaccine has not yet been created. 'Yes' means that it has.",
            "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "4dcfeb94aacd20d9b8c0ddb9a70c8419cd915f38d1f8c04eb773490007fa2394",
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Carrion's disease by {resolution_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases on the resolution date.",
            "background": "According to Wikipedia, Carrion's disease is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "No",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Vaccine status for Carrion's disease. 'No' means that a vaccine has not yet been created. 'Yes' means that it has.",
            "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "8e267cf2270bb8977f77685ef6144f3408a464bdb3485506109935728b17b8d2",
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Norovirus by {resolution_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases on the resolution date.",
            "background": "According to Wikipedia, Norovirus is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "No",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Vaccine status for Norovirus. 'No' means that a vaccine has not yet been created. 'Yes' means that it has.",
            "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "bb2e00debc6f7f58dec5ffafb4472f91e4e8fbca267c918cd3f16c8c8dc57591",
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Hendra virus infection by {resolution_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases on the resolution date.",
            "background": "According to Wikipedia, Hendra virus infection is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "No",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Vaccine status for Hendra virus infection. 'No' means that a vaccine has not yet been created. 'Yes' means that it has.",
            "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "5c16552f64a5618561c82bd2f0207465acd9a8f20545856878a2c2d0a5215e96",
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Exanthem subitum (Sixth disease) by {resolution_date}?",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases on the resolution date.",
            "background": "According to Wikipedia, Exanthem subitum (Sixth disease) is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "No",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Vaccine status for Exanthem subitum (Sixth disease). 'No' means that a vaccine has not yet been created. 'Yes' means that it has.",
            "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "c834eeadf075bd754f6beed34c60b69b3bb2937378d694eaadfd3bc2ab0eb99b",
                "8e267cf2270bb8977f77685ef6144f3408a464bdb3485506109935728b17b8d2"
            ],
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "c834eeadf075bd754f6beed34c60b69b3bb2937378d694eaadfd3bc2ab0eb99b",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Vibrio vulnificus infection by {resolution_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "According to Wikipedia, Vibrio vulnificus infection is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "No",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Vaccine status for Vibrio vulnificus infection. 'No' means that a vaccine has not yet been created. 'Yes' means that it has.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "8e267cf2270bb8977f77685ef6144f3408a464bdb3485506109935728b17b8d2",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Norovirus by {resolution_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "According to Wikipedia, Norovirus is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "No",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Vaccine status for Norovirus. 'No' means that a vaccine has not yet been created. 'Yes' means that it has.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "16dd2567084591088af911d551c22e004d2dba82db5d31be3f51de8f8b3dd607",
                "4dcfeb94aacd20d9b8c0ddb9a70c8419cd915f38d1f8c04eb773490007fa2394"
            ],
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "16dd2567084591088af911d551c22e004d2dba82db5d31be3f51de8f8b3dd607",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Rickettsial infection by {resolution_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "According to Wikipedia, Rickettsial infection is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "No",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Vaccine status for Rickettsial infection. 'No' means that a vaccine has not yet been created. 'Yes' means that it has.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "4dcfeb94aacd20d9b8c0ddb9a70c8419cd915f38d1f8c04eb773490007fa2394",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Carrion's disease by {resolution_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "According to Wikipedia, Carrion's disease is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "No",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Vaccine status for Carrion's disease. 'No' means that a vaccine has not yet been created. 'Yes' means that it has.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "25e629b0a54ee795ccbb7c44968f319952cae286525fa43501a290151a3f1d6c",
                "20f3f9c8809dfbaae777ef9dd8323634d2af725859096d9c5fb0689499a5b344"
            ],
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "25e629b0a54ee795ccbb7c44968f319952cae286525fa43501a290151a3f1d6c",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Aleksandra Goryachkina have an Elo rating on {resolution_date} that's at least 1% higher than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "2546.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Aleksandra Goryachkina's ELO rating.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "20f3f9c8809dfbaae777ef9dd8323634d2af725859096d9c5fb0689499a5b344",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Quang Liem Le have a FIDE ranking on {resolution_date} as high or higher than their ranking on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "15.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Quang Liem Le's FIDE ranking.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "2525a40a08e2116a34cd952e86bf0817cfb4431a1cb2e88a645dc5587290a185",
                "49f838083a15df2741b0b3ca6a9964e621d3f71ad50793a0b6cb7ad4745cc390"
            ],
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "2525a40a08e2116a34cd952e86bf0817cfb4431a1cb2e88a645dc5587290a185",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Kingella kingae infection by {resolution_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "According to Wikipedia, Kingella kingae infection is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "No",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Vaccine status for Kingella kingae infection. 'No' means that a vaccine has not yet been created. 'Yes' means that it has.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "49f838083a15df2741b0b3ca6a9964e621d3f71ad50793a0b6cb7ad4745cc390",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Lassa fever by {resolution_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "According to Wikipedia, Lassa fever is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "No",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Vaccine status for Lassa fever. 'No' means that a vaccine has not yet been created. 'Yes' means that it has.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "5ca04a3a78c7ffe5817f080f95e883a83edd6a1471caba48d435448a2d879b52",
                "5e5fae96f10319998728a48a5c42d909cef7cce4a39c194ac10e68c9a35ee023"
            ],
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "5ca04a3a78c7ffe5817f080f95e883a83edd6a1471caba48d435448a2d879b52",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Kliment Kolesnikov still hold the world record for 50m backstroke in long course (50 metres) swimming pools on {resolution_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_world_records_in_swimming on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "The world records in swimming are ratified by World Aquatics (formerly known as FINA), the international governing body of swimming. Records can be set in long course (50 metres) or short course (25 metres) swimming pools.\nThe ratification process is described in FINA Rule SW12, and involves submission of paperwork certifying the accuracy of the timing system and the length of the pool, satisfaction of FINA rules regarding swimwear and a negative doping test by the swimmer(s) involved. Records can be set at intermediate distances in an individual race and for the first leg of a relay race. Records which have not yet been fully ratified are marked with a '#' symbol in these lists.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_world_records_in_swimming",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "50m backstroke",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Kliment Kolesnikov is a record holder in the 50m backstroke.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "5e5fae96f10319998728a48a5c42d909cef7cce4a39c194ac10e68c9a35ee023",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Nino Batsiashvili have a FIDE ranking on {resolution_date} as high or higher than their ranking on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "19.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Nino Batsiashvili's FIDE ranking.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "044affc3cf8e3c981c601f7e8fc6a1144659454792c35dede40dde1a5ab85e60",
                "e5ef5991f0340690d21eec9e1fbc20d3b80d3d6dfba96b040c306080ae2ae990"
            ],
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "044affc3cf8e3c981c601f7e8fc6a1144659454792c35dede40dde1a5ab85e60",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Nino Batsiashvili have an Elo rating on {resolution_date} that's at least 1% higher than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "2470.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Nino Batsiashvili's ELO rating.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "e5ef5991f0340690d21eec9e1fbc20d3b80d3d6dfba96b040c306080ae2ae990",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Harika Dronavalli have an Elo rating on {resolution_date} that's at least 1% higher than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "2489.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Harika Dronavalli's ELO rating.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "15a2309ff037755f0cfaabde0da65f0a646573fb07183b089529109298a8d195",
                "5452de11a0b8b0c855feb8d52ee116aa4b1ac3b7e719039ab35667c34cf2552b"
            ],
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "15a2309ff037755f0cfaabde0da65f0a646573fb07183b089529109298a8d195",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Ju Wenjun have a FIDE ranking on {resolution_date} as high or higher than their ranking on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "2.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Ju Wenjun's FIDE ranking.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "5452de11a0b8b0c855feb8d52ee116aa4b1ac3b7e719039ab35667c34cf2552b",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Nodirbek Abdusattorov have a FIDE ranking on {resolution_date} as high or higher than their ranking on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "6.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Nodirbek Abdusattorov's FIDE ranking.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "e26862fb0adcb116476d35f89b9a1e32d5136aba16ec6d2f93a85f2ae272aa3f",
                "d2daa62a41e7a5eaf55204881cd8e187dd02762971677ed9b012c6a3c441ed11"
            ],
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "e26862fb0adcb116476d35f89b9a1e32d5136aba16ec6d2f93a85f2ae272aa3f",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Meri Arabidze have an Elo rating on {resolution_date} that's at least 1% higher than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "2458.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Meri Arabidze's ELO rating.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "d2daa62a41e7a5eaf55204881cd8e187dd02762971677ed9b012c6a3c441ed11",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Hikaru Nakamura have a FIDE ranking on {resolution_date} as high or higher than their ranking on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "3.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Hikaru Nakamura's FIDE ranking.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "5b1e224969367d47ae6856711b3f9d1335671d330c6ad42ac64f2803cf2a350f",
                "4dcfeb94aacd20d9b8c0ddb9a70c8419cd915f38d1f8c04eb773490007fa2394"
            ],
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "5b1e224969367d47ae6856711b3f9d1335671d330c6ad42ac64f2803cf2a350f",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Helicobacter pylori infection by {resolution_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "According to Wikipedia, Helicobacter pylori infection is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "No",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Vaccine status for Helicobacter pylori infection. 'No' means that a vaccine has not yet been created. 'Yes' means that it has.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "4dcfeb94aacd20d9b8c0ddb9a70c8419cd915f38d1f8c04eb773490007fa2394",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Carrion's disease by {resolution_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "According to Wikipedia, Carrion's disease is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "No",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Vaccine status for Carrion's disease. 'No' means that a vaccine has not yet been created. 'Yes' means that it has.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "5b1e224969367d47ae6856711b3f9d1335671d330c6ad42ac64f2803cf2a350f",
                "8e267cf2270bb8977f77685ef6144f3408a464bdb3485506109935728b17b8d2"
            ],
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "5b1e224969367d47ae6856711b3f9d1335671d330c6ad42ac64f2803cf2a350f",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Helicobacter pylori infection by {resolution_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "According to Wikipedia, Helicobacter pylori infection is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "No",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Vaccine status for Helicobacter pylori infection. 'No' means that a vaccine has not yet been created. 'Yes' means that it has.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "8e267cf2270bb8977f77685ef6144f3408a464bdb3485506109935728b17b8d2",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Norovirus by {resolution_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "According to Wikipedia, Norovirus is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "No",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Vaccine status for Norovirus. 'No' means that a vaccine has not yet been created. 'Yes' means that it has.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "2525a40a08e2116a34cd952e86bf0817cfb4431a1cb2e88a645dc5587290a185",
                "bb2e00debc6f7f58dec5ffafb4472f91e4e8fbca267c918cd3f16c8c8dc57591"
            ],
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "2525a40a08e2116a34cd952e86bf0817cfb4431a1cb2e88a645dc5587290a185",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Kingella kingae infection by {resolution_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "According to Wikipedia, Kingella kingae infection is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "No",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Vaccine status for Kingella kingae infection. 'No' means that a vaccine has not yet been created. 'Yes' means that it has.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "bb2e00debc6f7f58dec5ffafb4472f91e4e8fbca267c918cd3f16c8c8dc57591",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Hendra virus infection by {resolution_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "According to Wikipedia, Hendra virus infection is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "No",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Vaccine status for Hendra virus infection. 'No' means that a vaccine has not yet been created. 'Yes' means that it has.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "c8cc0816ce50a7fc018eccb7e6ed19628dc1f56e1cda26aca4b8f09c4edc7beb",
                "6060e34deeed7baaa22d71829e587cdc132e3ec6bbd738e46ca8c8a6536d30db"
            ],
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "c8cc0816ce50a7fc018eccb7e6ed19628dc1f56e1cda26aca4b8f09c4edc7beb",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Leinier Dominguez have a FIDE ranking on {resolution_date} as high or higher than their ranking on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "13.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Leinier Dominguez's FIDE ranking.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "6060e34deeed7baaa22d71829e587cdc132e3ec6bbd738e46ca8c8a6536d30db",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Parham Maghsoodloo have a FIDE ranking on {resolution_date} as high or higher than their ranking on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "20.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Parham Maghsoodloo's FIDE ranking.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "c8c9d8e957b21aad9595e05489ef0a157621c079c5666495bb702c6be0582125",
                "61c0fb3703e68cee2439afd5c2d71522bc6649a1fa154491f58981456fa8ab68"
            ],
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "c8c9d8e957b21aad9595e05489ef0a157621c079c5666495bb702c6be0582125",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Divya Deshmukh have an Elo rating on {resolution_date} that's at least 1% higher than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "2490.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Divya Deshmukh's ELO rating.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "61c0fb3703e68cee2439afd5c2d71522bc6649a1fa154491f58981456fa8ab68",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Aaron Peirsol still hold the world record for 200m backstroke in long course (50 metres) swimming pools on {resolution_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_world_records_in_swimming on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "The world records in swimming are ratified by World Aquatics (formerly known as FINA), the international governing body of swimming. Records can be set in long course (50 metres) or short course (25 metres) swimming pools.\nThe ratification process is described in FINA Rule SW12, and involves submission of paperwork certifying the accuracy of the timing system and the length of the pool, satisfaction of FINA rules regarding swimwear and a negative doping test by the swimmer(s) involved. Records can be set at intermediate distances in an individual race and for the first leg of a relay race. Records which have not yet been fully ratified are marked with a '#' symbol in these lists.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_world_records_in_swimming",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "200m backstroke",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Aaron Peirsol is a record holder in the 200m backstroke.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "a2805fcb003dc3297ab7d0f82651c385d6471af5692612c8848e94fea5a1d312",
                "4093ea3dcb75afc668a669812c21296be9ce9b93593413b060d51c61133ac505"
            ],
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "a2805fcb003dc3297ab7d0f82651c385d6471af5692612c8848e94fea5a1d312",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Molluscum contagiosum (MC) by {resolution_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "According to Wikipedia, Molluscum contagiosum (MC) is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "No",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Vaccine status for Molluscum contagiosum (MC). 'No' means that a vaccine has not yet been created. 'Yes' means that it has.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "4093ea3dcb75afc668a669812c21296be9ce9b93593413b060d51c61133ac505",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Human bocavirus infection by {resolution_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "According to Wikipedia, Human bocavirus infection is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "No",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Vaccine status for Human bocavirus infection. 'No' means that a vaccine has not yet been created. 'Yes' means that it has.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "242926fea271734ef8d4920e532414b38dbfdf301516fd9f0c988abd0ce777dd",
                "3a0d9f56fdc0fcc8e90b84afb5f0e7ab02f2751e91cc44d17e67ae9187d17aea"
            ],
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "242926fea271734ef8d4920e532414b38dbfdf301516fd9f0c988abd0ce777dd",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Respiratory syncytial virus infection by {resolution_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "According to Wikipedia, Respiratory syncytial virus infection is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "No",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Vaccine status for Respiratory syncytial virus infection. 'No' means that a vaccine has not yet been created. 'Yes' means that it has.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "3a0d9f56fdc0fcc8e90b84afb5f0e7ab02f2751e91cc44d17e67ae9187d17aea",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Diphyllobothriasis by {resolution_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "According to Wikipedia, Diphyllobothriasis is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "No",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Vaccine status for Diphyllobothriasis. 'No' means that a vaccine has not yet been created. 'Yes' means that it has.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "2f4e9bef478eb0032ddb58280d4bcdfa31f5934dccd230a28cc22eaaae6f3411",
                "e5ef5991f0340690d21eec9e1fbc20d3b80d3d6dfba96b040c306080ae2ae990"
            ],
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "2f4e9bef478eb0032ddb58280d4bcdfa31f5934dccd230a28cc22eaaae6f3411",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Quang Liem Le have an Elo rating on {resolution_date} that's at least 1% higher than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "2739.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Quang Liem Le's ELO rating.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "e5ef5991f0340690d21eec9e1fbc20d3b80d3d6dfba96b040c306080ae2ae990",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Harika Dronavalli have an Elo rating on {resolution_date} that's at least 1% higher than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "2489.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Harika Dronavalli's ELO rating.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "25e629b0a54ee795ccbb7c44968f319952cae286525fa43501a290151a3f1d6c",
                "5ca04a3a78c7ffe5817f080f95e883a83edd6a1471caba48d435448a2d879b52"
            ],
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "25e629b0a54ee795ccbb7c44968f319952cae286525fa43501a290151a3f1d6c",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Aleksandra Goryachkina have an Elo rating on {resolution_date} that's at least 1% higher than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "2546.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Aleksandra Goryachkina's ELO rating.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "5ca04a3a78c7ffe5817f080f95e883a83edd6a1471caba48d435448a2d879b52",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Kliment Kolesnikov still hold the world record for 50m backstroke in long course (50 metres) swimming pools on {resolution_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_world_records_in_swimming on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "The world records in swimming are ratified by World Aquatics (formerly known as FINA), the international governing body of swimming. Records can be set in long course (50 metres) or short course (25 metres) swimming pools.\nThe ratification process is described in FINA Rule SW12, and involves submission of paperwork certifying the accuracy of the timing system and the length of the pool, satisfaction of FINA rules regarding swimwear and a negative doping test by the swimmer(s) involved. Records can be set at intermediate distances in an individual race and for the first leg of a relay race. Records which have not yet been fully ratified are marked with a '#' symbol in these lists.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_world_records_in_swimming",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "50m backstroke",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Kliment Kolesnikov is a record holder in the 50m backstroke.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "e2ebe8c99e10583715b46ee35c93275a9a6b5721f812e6ce07f996daa8159732",
                "bb2e00debc6f7f58dec5ffafb4472f91e4e8fbca267c918cd3f16c8c8dc57591"
            ],
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "e2ebe8c99e10583715b46ee35c93275a9a6b5721f812e6ce07f996daa8159732",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Tinea cruris (Jock itch) by {resolution_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "According to Wikipedia, Tinea cruris (Jock itch) is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "No",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Vaccine status for Tinea cruris (Jock itch). 'No' means that a vaccine has not yet been created. 'Yes' means that it has.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "bb2e00debc6f7f58dec5ffafb4472f91e4e8fbca267c918cd3f16c8c8dc57591",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Hendra virus infection by {resolution_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "According to Wikipedia, Hendra virus infection is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "No",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Vaccine status for Hendra virus infection. 'No' means that a vaccine has not yet been created. 'Yes' means that it has.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "3a0d9f56fdc0fcc8e90b84afb5f0e7ab02f2751e91cc44d17e67ae9187d17aea",
                "bb2e00debc6f7f58dec5ffafb4472f91e4e8fbca267c918cd3f16c8c8dc57591"
            ],
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "3a0d9f56fdc0fcc8e90b84afb5f0e7ab02f2751e91cc44d17e67ae9187d17aea",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Diphyllobothriasis by {resolution_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "According to Wikipedia, Diphyllobothriasis is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "No",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Vaccine status for Diphyllobothriasis. 'No' means that a vaccine has not yet been created. 'Yes' means that it has.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "bb2e00debc6f7f58dec5ffafb4472f91e4e8fbca267c918cd3f16c8c8dc57591",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Hendra virus infection by {resolution_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "According to Wikipedia, Hendra virus infection is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "No",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Vaccine status for Hendra virus infection. 'No' means that a vaccine has not yet been created. 'Yes' means that it has.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "5b1e224969367d47ae6856711b3f9d1335671d330c6ad42ac64f2803cf2a350f",
                "959b6aaf209f8aeebc8d606028930c9ffdcf7cc7c218762ceae689872c37e331"
            ],
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "5b1e224969367d47ae6856711b3f9d1335671d330c6ad42ac64f2803cf2a350f",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Helicobacter pylori infection by {resolution_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "According to Wikipedia, Helicobacter pylori infection is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "No",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Vaccine status for Helicobacter pylori infection. 'No' means that a vaccine has not yet been created. 'Yes' means that it has.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "959b6aaf209f8aeebc8d606028930c9ffdcf7cc7c218762ceae689872c37e331",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Tinea unguium (onychomycosis) by {resolution_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "According to Wikipedia, Tinea unguium (onychomycosis) is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "No",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Vaccine status for Tinea unguium (onychomycosis). 'No' means that a vaccine has not yet been created. 'Yes' means that it has.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "b70970a0440d1b7dedde9220fb60ffe3f2ed8b00ef12b45341772046caa12092",
                "5ca04a3a78c7ffe5817f080f95e883a83edd6a1471caba48d435448a2d879b52"
            ],
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "b70970a0440d1b7dedde9220fb60ffe3f2ed8b00ef12b45341772046caa12092",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Erigaisi Arjun have a FIDE ranking on {resolution_date} as high or higher than their ranking on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "4.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Erigaisi Arjun's FIDE ranking.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "5ca04a3a78c7ffe5817f080f95e883a83edd6a1471caba48d435448a2d879b52",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Kliment Kolesnikov still hold the world record for 50m backstroke in long course (50 metres) swimming pools on {resolution_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_world_records_in_swimming on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "The world records in swimming are ratified by World Aquatics (formerly known as FINA), the international governing body of swimming. Records can be set in long course (50 metres) or short course (25 metres) swimming pools.\nThe ratification process is described in FINA Rule SW12, and involves submission of paperwork certifying the accuracy of the timing system and the length of the pool, satisfaction of FINA rules regarding swimwear and a negative doping test by the swimmer(s) involved. Records can be set at intermediate distances in an individual race and for the first leg of a relay race. Records which have not yet been fully ratified are marked with a '#' symbol in these lists.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_world_records_in_swimming",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "50m backstroke",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Kliment Kolesnikov is a record holder in the 50m backstroke.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "5ca04a3a78c7ffe5817f080f95e883a83edd6a1471caba48d435448a2d879b52",
                "c8cc0816ce50a7fc018eccb7e6ed19628dc1f56e1cda26aca4b8f09c4edc7beb"
            ],
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "5ca04a3a78c7ffe5817f080f95e883a83edd6a1471caba48d435448a2d879b52",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Kliment Kolesnikov still hold the world record for 50m backstroke in long course (50 metres) swimming pools on {resolution_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_world_records_in_swimming on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "The world records in swimming are ratified by World Aquatics (formerly known as FINA), the international governing body of swimming. Records can be set in long course (50 metres) or short course (25 metres) swimming pools.\nThe ratification process is described in FINA Rule SW12, and involves submission of paperwork certifying the accuracy of the timing system and the length of the pool, satisfaction of FINA rules regarding swimwear and a negative doping test by the swimmer(s) involved. Records can be set at intermediate distances in an individual race and for the first leg of a relay race. Records which have not yet been fully ratified are marked with a '#' symbol in these lists.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_world_records_in_swimming",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "50m backstroke",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Kliment Kolesnikov is a record holder in the 50m backstroke.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "c8cc0816ce50a7fc018eccb7e6ed19628dc1f56e1cda26aca4b8f09c4edc7beb",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Leinier Dominguez have a FIDE ranking on {resolution_date} as high or higher than their ranking on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "13.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Leinier Dominguez's FIDE ranking.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "15a2309ff037755f0cfaabde0da65f0a646573fb07183b089529109298a8d195",
                "76eefc47356f6f8254bbc134dc46e8127fca413bb79a551af09a829cfb2603b0"
            ],
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "15a2309ff037755f0cfaabde0da65f0a646573fb07183b089529109298a8d195",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Ju Wenjun have a FIDE ranking on {resolution_date} as high or higher than their ranking on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "2.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Ju Wenjun's FIDE ranking.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "76eefc47356f6f8254bbc134dc46e8127fca413bb79a551af09a829cfb2603b0",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Vincent Keymer have an Elo rating on {resolution_date} that's at least 1% higher than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "2731.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Vincent Keymer's ELO rating.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "b70970a0440d1b7dedde9220fb60ffe3f2ed8b00ef12b45341772046caa12092",
                "c8c9d8e957b21aad9595e05489ef0a157621c079c5666495bb702c6be0582125"
            ],
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "b70970a0440d1b7dedde9220fb60ffe3f2ed8b00ef12b45341772046caa12092",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Erigaisi Arjun have a FIDE ranking on {resolution_date} as high or higher than their ranking on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "4.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Erigaisi Arjun's FIDE ranking.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "c8c9d8e957b21aad9595e05489ef0a157621c079c5666495bb702c6be0582125",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Divya Deshmukh have an Elo rating on {resolution_date} that's at least 1% higher than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "2490.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Divya Deshmukh's ELO rating.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "c8c9d8e957b21aad9595e05489ef0a157621c079c5666495bb702c6be0582125",
                "044affc3cf8e3c981c601f7e8fc6a1144659454792c35dede40dde1a5ab85e60"
            ],
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "c8c9d8e957b21aad9595e05489ef0a157621c079c5666495bb702c6be0582125",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Divya Deshmukh have an Elo rating on {resolution_date} that's at least 1% higher than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "2490.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Divya Deshmukh's ELO rating.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "044affc3cf8e3c981c601f7e8fc6a1144659454792c35dede40dde1a5ab85e60",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Nino Batsiashvili have an Elo rating on {resolution_date} that's at least 1% higher than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "2470.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Nino Batsiashvili's ELO rating.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "2f9337f5d2cc530629386a651bc047c7b76cb3d2fa3222a2fca72a8a7a20e7b2",
                "8e267cf2270bb8977f77685ef6144f3408a464bdb3485506109935728b17b8d2"
            ],
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "2f9337f5d2cc530629386a651bc047c7b76cb3d2fa3222a2fca72a8a7a20e7b2",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Toxic shock syndrome (TSS) by {resolution_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "According to Wikipedia, Toxic shock syndrome (TSS) is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "No",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Vaccine status for Toxic shock syndrome (TSS). 'No' means that a vaccine has not yet been created. 'Yes' means that it has.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "8e267cf2270bb8977f77685ef6144f3408a464bdb3485506109935728b17b8d2",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Norovirus by {resolution_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "According to Wikipedia, Norovirus is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "No",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Vaccine status for Norovirus. 'No' means that a vaccine has not yet been created. 'Yes' means that it has.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "5b1e224969367d47ae6856711b3f9d1335671d330c6ad42ac64f2803cf2a350f",
                "3a0d9f56fdc0fcc8e90b84afb5f0e7ab02f2751e91cc44d17e67ae9187d17aea"
            ],
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "5b1e224969367d47ae6856711b3f9d1335671d330c6ad42ac64f2803cf2a350f",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Helicobacter pylori infection by {resolution_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "According to Wikipedia, Helicobacter pylori infection is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "No",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Vaccine status for Helicobacter pylori infection. 'No' means that a vaccine has not yet been created. 'Yes' means that it has.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "3a0d9f56fdc0fcc8e90b84afb5f0e7ab02f2751e91cc44d17e67ae9187d17aea",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Diphyllobothriasis by {resolution_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "According to Wikipedia, Diphyllobothriasis is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "No",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Vaccine status for Diphyllobothriasis. 'No' means that a vaccine has not yet been created. 'Yes' means that it has.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "6f7f685d66034654244163c275aa8d4e22e72015e99d02a1161c5bc5e88ba444",
                "76eefc47356f6f8254bbc134dc46e8127fca413bb79a551af09a829cfb2603b0"
            ],
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "6f7f685d66034654244163c275aa8d4e22e72015e99d02a1161c5bc5e88ba444",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Ding Liren have a FIDE ranking on {resolution_date} as high or higher than their ranking on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "17.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Ding Liren's FIDE ranking.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "76eefc47356f6f8254bbc134dc46e8127fca413bb79a551af09a829cfb2603b0",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Vincent Keymer have an Elo rating on {resolution_date} that's at least 1% higher than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "2731.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Vincent Keymer's ELO rating.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "c8c9d8e957b21aad9595e05489ef0a157621c079c5666495bb702c6be0582125",
                "e5ef5991f0340690d21eec9e1fbc20d3b80d3d6dfba96b040c306080ae2ae990"
            ],
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "c8c9d8e957b21aad9595e05489ef0a157621c079c5666495bb702c6be0582125",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Divya Deshmukh have an Elo rating on {resolution_date} that's at least 1% higher than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "2490.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Divya Deshmukh's ELO rating.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "e5ef5991f0340690d21eec9e1fbc20d3b80d3d6dfba96b040c306080ae2ae990",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Harika Dronavalli have an Elo rating on {resolution_date} that's at least 1% higher than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "2489.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Harika Dronavalli's ELO rating.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8",
                "5e5fae96f10319998728a48a5c42d909cef7cce4a39c194ac10e68c9a35ee023"
            ],
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Aleksandra Goryachkina have a FIDE ranking on {resolution_date} as high or higher than their ranking on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "5.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Aleksandra Goryachkina's FIDE ranking.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "5e5fae96f10319998728a48a5c42d909cef7cce4a39c194ac10e68c9a35ee023",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Nino Batsiashvili have a FIDE ranking on {resolution_date} as high or higher than their ranking on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "19.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Nino Batsiashvili's FIDE ranking.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "3ff636ffa947b8f0f3adb55964cd75294716abea2c27933ad89d7abff42d633e",
                "c28f340263644425dd87c3cf915351620e452358d2118a20e27fb20ba76cfa64"
            ],
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "3ff636ffa947b8f0f3adb55964cd75294716abea2c27933ad89d7abff42d633e",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Erigaisi Arjun have an Elo rating on {resolution_date} that's at least 1% higher than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "2778.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Erigaisi Arjun's ELO rating.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "c28f340263644425dd87c3cf915351620e452358d2118a20e27fb20ba76cfa64",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Nana Dzagnidze have a FIDE ranking on {resolution_date} as high or higher than their ranking on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "7.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Nana Dzagnidze's FIDE ranking.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "5452de11a0b8b0c855feb8d52ee116aa4b1ac3b7e719039ab35667c34cf2552b",
                "e5ef5991f0340690d21eec9e1fbc20d3b80d3d6dfba96b040c306080ae2ae990"
            ],
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "5452de11a0b8b0c855feb8d52ee116aa4b1ac3b7e719039ab35667c34cf2552b",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Nodirbek Abdusattorov have a FIDE ranking on {resolution_date} as high or higher than their ranking on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "6.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Nodirbek Abdusattorov's FIDE ranking.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "e5ef5991f0340690d21eec9e1fbc20d3b80d3d6dfba96b040c306080ae2ae990",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Harika Dronavalli have an Elo rating on {resolution_date} that's at least 1% higher than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "2489.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Harika Dronavalli's ELO rating.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "4e9244fd658bf1e286f52541539fbdaaf2440059a622bd6966f082167b4ce179",
                "b7cb5b21a17ddf6ef798011d1496bb1441ccbe7bfde036c17f0b71010b1b971a"
            ],
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "4e9244fd658bf1e286f52541539fbdaaf2440059a622bd6966f082167b4ce179",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Scabies by {resolution_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "According to Wikipedia, Scabies is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "No",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Vaccine status for Scabies. 'No' means that a vaccine has not yet been created. 'Yes' means that it has.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "b7cb5b21a17ddf6ef798011d1496bb1441ccbe7bfde036c17f0b71010b1b971a",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Trachoma by {resolution_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "According to Wikipedia, Trachoma is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "No",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Vaccine status for Trachoma. 'No' means that a vaccine has not yet been created. 'Yes' means that it has.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "bd9d8a912fb3f75a06cd3f5d063e80c1f8e47a6d6955199039ccf9ba15b6e34b",
                "8e267cf2270bb8977f77685ef6144f3408a464bdb3485506109935728b17b8d2"
            ],
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "bd9d8a912fb3f75a06cd3f5d063e80c1f8e47a6d6955199039ccf9ba15b6e34b",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Primary amoebic meningoencephalitis (PAM) by {resolution_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "According to Wikipedia, Primary amoebic meningoencephalitis (PAM) is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "No",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Vaccine status for Primary amoebic meningoencephalitis (PAM). 'No' means that a vaccine has not yet been created. 'Yes' means that it has.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "8e267cf2270bb8977f77685ef6144f3408a464bdb3485506109935728b17b8d2",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Norovirus by {resolution_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "According to Wikipedia, Norovirus is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "No",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Vaccine status for Norovirus. 'No' means that a vaccine has not yet been created. 'Yes' means that it has.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8",
                "c90a910e5ea0ef3bdaedf23ce591e20a8da2df5b88c5b04e6264761959ddfcc0"
            ],
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Aleksandra Goryachkina have a FIDE ranking on {resolution_date} as high or higher than their ranking on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "5.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Aleksandra Goryachkina's FIDE ranking.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "c90a910e5ea0ef3bdaedf23ce591e20a8da2df5b88c5b04e6264761959ddfcc0",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Andriy Govorov still hold the world record for 50m butterfly in long course (50 metres) swimming pools on {resolution_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_world_records_in_swimming on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "The world records in swimming are ratified by World Aquatics (formerly known as FINA), the international governing body of swimming. Records can be set in long course (50 metres) or short course (25 metres) swimming pools.\nThe ratification process is described in FINA Rule SW12, and involves submission of paperwork certifying the accuracy of the timing system and the length of the pool, satisfaction of FINA rules regarding swimwear and a negative doping test by the swimmer(s) involved. Records can be set at intermediate distances in an individual race and for the first leg of a relay race. Records which have not yet been fully ratified are marked with a '#' symbol in these lists.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_world_records_in_swimming",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "50m butterfly",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Andriy Govorov is a record holder in the 50m butterfly.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "25e629b0a54ee795ccbb7c44968f319952cae286525fa43501a290151a3f1d6c",
                "61c0fb3703e68cee2439afd5c2d71522bc6649a1fa154491f58981456fa8ab68"
            ],
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "25e629b0a54ee795ccbb7c44968f319952cae286525fa43501a290151a3f1d6c",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Aleksandra Goryachkina have an Elo rating on {resolution_date} that's at least 1% higher than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "2546.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Aleksandra Goryachkina's ELO rating.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "61c0fb3703e68cee2439afd5c2d71522bc6649a1fa154491f58981456fa8ab68",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Aaron Peirsol still hold the world record for 200m backstroke in long course (50 metres) swimming pools on {resolution_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_world_records_in_swimming on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "The world records in swimming are ratified by World Aquatics (formerly known as FINA), the international governing body of swimming. Records can be set in long course (50 metres) or short course (25 metres) swimming pools.\nThe ratification process is described in FINA Rule SW12, and involves submission of paperwork certifying the accuracy of the timing system and the length of the pool, satisfaction of FINA rules regarding swimwear and a negative doping test by the swimmer(s) involved. Records can be set at intermediate distances in an individual race and for the first leg of a relay race. Records which have not yet been fully ratified are marked with a '#' symbol in these lists.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_world_records_in_swimming",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "200m backstroke",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Aaron Peirsol is a record holder in the 200m backstroke.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "2f9337f5d2cc530629386a651bc047c7b76cb3d2fa3222a2fca72a8a7a20e7b2",
                "5c16552f64a5618561c82bd2f0207465acd9a8f20545856878a2c2d0a5215e96"
            ],
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "2f9337f5d2cc530629386a651bc047c7b76cb3d2fa3222a2fca72a8a7a20e7b2",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Toxic shock syndrome (TSS) by {resolution_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "According to Wikipedia, Toxic shock syndrome (TSS) is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "No",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Vaccine status for Toxic shock syndrome (TSS). 'No' means that a vaccine has not yet been created. 'Yes' means that it has.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "5c16552f64a5618561c82bd2f0207465acd9a8f20545856878a2c2d0a5215e96",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Exanthem subitum (Sixth disease) by {resolution_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "According to Wikipedia, Exanthem subitum (Sixth disease) is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "No",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Vaccine status for Exanthem subitum (Sixth disease). 'No' means that a vaccine has not yet been created. 'Yes' means that it has.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "87e7a67add0d7b22541fc2a586dc693df417e2805ed619aa45acec927e0ee3e5",
                "e2ebe8c99e10583715b46ee35c93275a9a6b5721f812e6ce07f996daa8159732"
            ],
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "87e7a67add0d7b22541fc2a586dc693df417e2805ed619aa45acec927e0ee3e5",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Actinomycosis by {resolution_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "According to Wikipedia, Actinomycosis is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "No",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Vaccine status for Actinomycosis. 'No' means that a vaccine has not yet been created. 'Yes' means that it has.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "e2ebe8c99e10583715b46ee35c93275a9a6b5721f812e6ce07f996daa8159732",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Tinea cruris (Jock itch) by {resolution_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "According to Wikipedia, Tinea cruris (Jock itch) is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "No",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Vaccine status for Tinea cruris (Jock itch). 'No' means that a vaccine has not yet been created. 'Yes' means that it has.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "044affc3cf8e3c981c601f7e8fc6a1144659454792c35dede40dde1a5ab85e60",
                "d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936"
            ],
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "044affc3cf8e3c981c601f7e8fc6a1144659454792c35dede40dde1a5ab85e60",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Nino Batsiashvili have an Elo rating on {resolution_date} that's at least 1% higher than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "2470.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Nino Batsiashvili's ELO rating.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Nodirbek Abdusattorov have an Elo rating on {resolution_date} that's at least 1% higher than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "2766.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Nodirbek Abdusattorov's ELO rating.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "5452de11a0b8b0c855feb8d52ee116aa4b1ac3b7e719039ab35667c34cf2552b",
                "20efdec28913ecfb1e3a3e26ad2c99e1b4d7ad3f43b5a6202c46f9c277c17406"
            ],
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "5452de11a0b8b0c855feb8d52ee116aa4b1ac3b7e719039ab35667c34cf2552b",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Nodirbek Abdusattorov have a FIDE ranking on {resolution_date} as high or higher than their ranking on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "6.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Nodirbek Abdusattorov's FIDE ranking.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "20efdec28913ecfb1e3a3e26ad2c99e1b4d7ad3f43b5a6202c46f9c277c17406",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Paul Biedermann still hold the world record for 200m freestyle in long course (50 metres) swimming pools on {resolution_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_world_records_in_swimming on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "The world records in swimming are ratified by World Aquatics (formerly known as FINA), the international governing body of swimming. Records can be set in long course (50 metres) or short course (25 metres) swimming pools.\nThe ratification process is described in FINA Rule SW12, and involves submission of paperwork certifying the accuracy of the timing system and the length of the pool, satisfaction of FINA rules regarding swimwear and a negative doping test by the swimmer(s) involved. Records can be set at intermediate distances in an individual race and for the first leg of a relay race. Records which have not yet been fully ratified are marked with a '#' symbol in these lists.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_world_records_in_swimming",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "200m freestyle",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Paul Biedermann is a record holder in the 200m freestyle.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "74f2b04743e373fb503773e173540041879c53b80cfe756dd054a124caee9860",
                "c834eeadf075bd754f6beed34c60b69b3bb2937378d694eaadfd3bc2ab0eb99b"
            ],
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "74f2b04743e373fb503773e173540041879c53b80cfe756dd054a124caee9860",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Filariasis by {resolution_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "According to Wikipedia, Filariasis is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "No",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Vaccine status for Filariasis. 'No' means that a vaccine has not yet been created. 'Yes' means that it has.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "c834eeadf075bd754f6beed34c60b69b3bb2937378d694eaadfd3bc2ab0eb99b",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Vibrio vulnificus infection by {resolution_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "According to Wikipedia, Vibrio vulnificus infection is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "No",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Vaccine status for Vibrio vulnificus infection. 'No' means that a vaccine has not yet been created. 'Yes' means that it has.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "4e9244fd658bf1e286f52541539fbdaaf2440059a622bd6966f082167b4ce179",
                "d3c5e3b681d6299c57923b312b8886ccfcff2e8a46d138eecdca45f41df8bed0"
            ],
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "4e9244fd658bf1e286f52541539fbdaaf2440059a622bd6966f082167b4ce179",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Scabies by {resolution_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "According to Wikipedia, Scabies is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "No",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Vaccine status for Scabies. 'No' means that a vaccine has not yet been created. 'Yes' means that it has.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "d3c5e3b681d6299c57923b312b8886ccfcff2e8a46d138eecdca45f41df8bed0",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Erythema infectiosum (Fifth disease) by {resolution_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "According to Wikipedia, Erythema infectiosum (Fifth disease) is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "No",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Vaccine status for Erythema infectiosum (Fifth disease). 'No' means that a vaccine has not yet been created. 'Yes' means that it has.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "98293d96d72cc181fde43e3d8c9692a88f882f11135d9b971d18fdedba497ada",
                "d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936"
            ],
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "98293d96d72cc181fde43e3d8c9692a88f882f11135d9b971d18fdedba497ada",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Alina Kashlinskaya have a FIDE ranking on {resolution_date} as high or higher than their ranking on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "12.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Alina Kashlinskaya's FIDE ranking.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Nodirbek Abdusattorov have an Elo rating on {resolution_date} that's at least 1% higher than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "2766.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Nodirbek Abdusattorov's ELO rating.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "1f8f1bf444de5afdcc4e19bb6f62c56a8e8267992075876bbab5da68fd892eb0",
                "4093ea3dcb75afc668a669812c21296be9ce9b93593413b060d51c61133ac505"
            ],
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "1f8f1bf444de5afdcc4e19bb6f62c56a8e8267992075876bbab5da68fd892eb0",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Rhinovirus infection by {resolution_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "According to Wikipedia, Rhinovirus infection is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "No",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Vaccine status for Rhinovirus infection. 'No' means that a vaccine has not yet been created. 'Yes' means that it has.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "4093ea3dcb75afc668a669812c21296be9ce9b93593413b060d51c61133ac505",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Human bocavirus infection by {resolution_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "According to Wikipedia, Human bocavirus infection is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "No",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Vaccine status for Human bocavirus infection. 'No' means that a vaccine has not yet been created. 'Yes' means that it has.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "044affc3cf8e3c981c601f7e8fc6a1144659454792c35dede40dde1a5ab85e60",
                "61c0fb3703e68cee2439afd5c2d71522bc6649a1fa154491f58981456fa8ab68"
            ],
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "044affc3cf8e3c981c601f7e8fc6a1144659454792c35dede40dde1a5ab85e60",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Nino Batsiashvili have an Elo rating on {resolution_date} that's at least 1% higher than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "2470.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Nino Batsiashvili's ELO rating.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "61c0fb3703e68cee2439afd5c2d71522bc6649a1fa154491f58981456fa8ab68",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Aaron Peirsol still hold the world record for 200m backstroke in long course (50 metres) swimming pools on {resolution_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_world_records_in_swimming on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "The world records in swimming are ratified by World Aquatics (formerly known as FINA), the international governing body of swimming. Records can be set in long course (50 metres) or short course (25 metres) swimming pools.\nThe ratification process is described in FINA Rule SW12, and involves submission of paperwork certifying the accuracy of the timing system and the length of the pool, satisfaction of FINA rules regarding swimwear and a negative doping test by the swimmer(s) involved. Records can be set at intermediate distances in an individual race and for the first leg of a relay race. Records which have not yet been fully ratified are marked with a '#' symbol in these lists.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_world_records_in_swimming",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "200m backstroke",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Aaron Peirsol is a record holder in the 200m backstroke.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "eda8e5b43e0db651905667586e1e72a7d5679cbb5b3ef4dd6faa6444759e2dee",
                "4dcfeb94aacd20d9b8c0ddb9a70c8419cd915f38d1f8c04eb773490007fa2394"
            ],
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "eda8e5b43e0db651905667586e1e72a7d5679cbb5b3ef4dd6faa6444759e2dee",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Legionellosis (Legionnaires' disease) by {resolution_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "According to Wikipedia, Legionellosis (Legionnaires' disease) is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "No",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Vaccine status for Legionellosis (Legionnaires' disease). 'No' means that a vaccine has not yet been created. 'Yes' means that it has.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "4dcfeb94aacd20d9b8c0ddb9a70c8419cd915f38d1f8c04eb773490007fa2394",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Carrion's disease by {resolution_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "According to Wikipedia, Carrion's disease is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "No",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Vaccine status for Carrion's disease. 'No' means that a vaccine has not yet been created. 'Yes' means that it has.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "98293d96d72cc181fde43e3d8c9692a88f882f11135d9b971d18fdedba497ada",
                "61c0fb3703e68cee2439afd5c2d71522bc6649a1fa154491f58981456fa8ab68"
            ],
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "98293d96d72cc181fde43e3d8c9692a88f882f11135d9b971d18fdedba497ada",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Alina Kashlinskaya have a FIDE ranking on {resolution_date} as high or higher than their ranking on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "12.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Alina Kashlinskaya's FIDE ranking.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "61c0fb3703e68cee2439afd5c2d71522bc6649a1fa154491f58981456fa8ab68",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Aaron Peirsol still hold the world record for 200m backstroke in long course (50 metres) swimming pools on {resolution_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_world_records_in_swimming on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "The world records in swimming are ratified by World Aquatics (formerly known as FINA), the international governing body of swimming. Records can be set in long course (50 metres) or short course (25 metres) swimming pools.\nThe ratification process is described in FINA Rule SW12, and involves submission of paperwork certifying the accuracy of the timing system and the length of the pool, satisfaction of FINA rules regarding swimwear and a negative doping test by the swimmer(s) involved. Records can be set at intermediate distances in an individual race and for the first leg of a relay race. Records which have not yet been fully ratified are marked with a '#' symbol in these lists.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_world_records_in_swimming",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "200m backstroke",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Aaron Peirsol is a record holder in the 200m backstroke.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "044affc3cf8e3c981c601f7e8fc6a1144659454792c35dede40dde1a5ab85e60",
                "c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb"
            ],
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "044affc3cf8e3c981c601f7e8fc6a1144659454792c35dede40dde1a5ab85e60",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Nino Batsiashvili have an Elo rating on {resolution_date} that's at least 1% higher than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "2470.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Nino Batsiashvili's ELO rating.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will R\u016bta Meilutyt\u0117 still hold the world record for 50m breaststroke in long course (50 metres) swimming pools on {resolution_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_world_records_in_swimming on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "The world records in swimming are ratified by World Aquatics (formerly known as FINA), the international governing body of swimming. Records can be set in long course (50 metres) or short course (25 metres) swimming pools.\nThe ratification process is described in FINA Rule SW12, and involves submission of paperwork certifying the accuracy of the timing system and the length of the pool, satisfaction of FINA rules regarding swimwear and a negative doping test by the swimmer(s) involved. Records can be set at intermediate distances in an individual race and for the first leg of a relay race. Records which have not yet been fully ratified are marked with a '#' symbol in these lists.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_world_records_in_swimming",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "50m breaststroke",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "R\u016bta Meilutyt\u0117 is a record holder in the 50m breaststroke.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "e26862fb0adcb116476d35f89b9a1e32d5136aba16ec6d2f93a85f2ae272aa3f",
                "76eefc47356f6f8254bbc134dc46e8127fca413bb79a551af09a829cfb2603b0"
            ],
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "e26862fb0adcb116476d35f89b9a1e32d5136aba16ec6d2f93a85f2ae272aa3f",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Meri Arabidze have an Elo rating on {resolution_date} that's at least 1% higher than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "2458.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Meri Arabidze's ELO rating.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "76eefc47356f6f8254bbc134dc46e8127fca413bb79a551af09a829cfb2603b0",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Vincent Keymer have an Elo rating on {resolution_date} that's at least 1% higher than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "2731.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Vincent Keymer's ELO rating.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "b70970a0440d1b7dedde9220fb60ffe3f2ed8b00ef12b45341772046caa12092",
                "20f3f9c8809dfbaae777ef9dd8323634d2af725859096d9c5fb0689499a5b344"
            ],
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "b70970a0440d1b7dedde9220fb60ffe3f2ed8b00ef12b45341772046caa12092",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Erigaisi Arjun have a FIDE ranking on {resolution_date} as high or higher than their ranking on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "4.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Erigaisi Arjun's FIDE ranking.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "20f3f9c8809dfbaae777ef9dd8323634d2af725859096d9c5fb0689499a5b344",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Quang Liem Le have a FIDE ranking on {resolution_date} as high or higher than their ranking on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "15.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Quang Liem Le's FIDE ranking.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8",
                "5ca04a3a78c7ffe5817f080f95e883a83edd6a1471caba48d435448a2d879b52"
            ],
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Aleksandra Goryachkina have a FIDE ranking on {resolution_date} as high or higher than their ranking on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "5.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Aleksandra Goryachkina's FIDE ranking.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "5ca04a3a78c7ffe5817f080f95e883a83edd6a1471caba48d435448a2d879b52",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Kliment Kolesnikov still hold the world record for 50m backstroke in long course (50 metres) swimming pools on {resolution_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_world_records_in_swimming on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "The world records in swimming are ratified by World Aquatics (formerly known as FINA), the international governing body of swimming. Records can be set in long course (50 metres) or short course (25 metres) swimming pools.\nThe ratification process is described in FINA Rule SW12, and involves submission of paperwork certifying the accuracy of the timing system and the length of the pool, satisfaction of FINA rules regarding swimwear and a negative doping test by the swimmer(s) involved. Records can be set at intermediate distances in an individual race and for the first leg of a relay race. Records which have not yet been fully ratified are marked with a '#' symbol in these lists.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_world_records_in_swimming",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "50m backstroke",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Kliment Kolesnikov is a record holder in the 50m backstroke.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "c8cc0816ce50a7fc018eccb7e6ed19628dc1f56e1cda26aca4b8f09c4edc7beb",
                "61c0fb3703e68cee2439afd5c2d71522bc6649a1fa154491f58981456fa8ab68"
            ],
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "c8cc0816ce50a7fc018eccb7e6ed19628dc1f56e1cda26aca4b8f09c4edc7beb",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Leinier Dominguez have a FIDE ranking on {resolution_date} as high or higher than their ranking on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "13.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Leinier Dominguez's FIDE ranking.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "61c0fb3703e68cee2439afd5c2d71522bc6649a1fa154491f58981456fa8ab68",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Aaron Peirsol still hold the world record for 200m backstroke in long course (50 metres) swimming pools on {resolution_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_world_records_in_swimming on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "The world records in swimming are ratified by World Aquatics (formerly known as FINA), the international governing body of swimming. Records can be set in long course (50 metres) or short course (25 metres) swimming pools.\nThe ratification process is described in FINA Rule SW12, and involves submission of paperwork certifying the accuracy of the timing system and the length of the pool, satisfaction of FINA rules regarding swimwear and a negative doping test by the swimmer(s) involved. Records can be set at intermediate distances in an individual race and for the first leg of a relay race. Records which have not yet been fully ratified are marked with a '#' symbol in these lists.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_world_records_in_swimming",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "200m backstroke",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Aaron Peirsol is a record holder in the 200m backstroke.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "74f2b04743e373fb503773e173540041879c53b80cfe756dd054a124caee9860",
                "55c2216ba2f2608f6836da87412e72bcc1a20cb8fe88489f6dd706f6b78cb434"
            ],
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "74f2b04743e373fb503773e173540041879c53b80cfe756dd054a124caee9860",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Filariasis by {resolution_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "According to Wikipedia, Filariasis is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "No",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Vaccine status for Filariasis. 'No' means that a vaccine has not yet been created. 'Yes' means that it has.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "55c2216ba2f2608f6836da87412e72bcc1a20cb8fe88489f6dd706f6b78cb434",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) by {resolution_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "According to Wikipedia, Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "No",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Vaccine status for Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS). 'No' means that a vaccine has not yet been created. 'Yes' means that it has.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "b8181fa81ec7af1afc15aa56a2286320fcea592dacb469500b309fda8c76cb7a",
                "242e17fa4cf02fba614df523a64f8527f7776f3443e6281386b5eddcd84a097c"
            ],
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "b8181fa81ec7af1afc15aa56a2286320fcea592dacb469500b309fda8c76cb7a",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Yuliia Osmak have an Elo rating on {resolution_date} that's at least 1% higher than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "2467.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Yuliia Osmak's ELO rating.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "242e17fa4cf02fba614df523a64f8527f7776f3443e6281386b5eddcd84a097c",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Hans Niemann have a FIDE ranking on {resolution_date} as high or higher than their ranking on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "18.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Hans Niemann's FIDE ranking.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "74f2b04743e373fb503773e173540041879c53b80cfe756dd054a124caee9860",
                "6b5ae258d99205be0f8e1e4396d34caa191b640b860ce569345d93f7f4634adc"
            ],
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "74f2b04743e373fb503773e173540041879c53b80cfe756dd054a124caee9860",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Filariasis by {resolution_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "According to Wikipedia, Filariasis is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "No",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Vaccine status for Filariasis. 'No' means that a vaccine has not yet been created. 'Yes' means that it has.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "6b5ae258d99205be0f8e1e4396d34caa191b640b860ce569345d93f7f4634adc",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Mycoplasma pneumonia by {resolution_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "According to Wikipedia, Mycoplasma pneumonia is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "No",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Vaccine status for Mycoplasma pneumonia. 'No' means that a vaccine has not yet been created. 'Yes' means that it has.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "61c0fb3703e68cee2439afd5c2d71522bc6649a1fa154491f58981456fa8ab68",
                "5452de11a0b8b0c855feb8d52ee116aa4b1ac3b7e719039ab35667c34cf2552b"
            ],
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "61c0fb3703e68cee2439afd5c2d71522bc6649a1fa154491f58981456fa8ab68",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Aaron Peirsol still hold the world record for 200m backstroke in long course (50 metres) swimming pools on {resolution_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_world_records_in_swimming on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "The world records in swimming are ratified by World Aquatics (formerly known as FINA), the international governing body of swimming. Records can be set in long course (50 metres) or short course (25 metres) swimming pools.\nThe ratification process is described in FINA Rule SW12, and involves submission of paperwork certifying the accuracy of the timing system and the length of the pool, satisfaction of FINA rules regarding swimwear and a negative doping test by the swimmer(s) involved. Records can be set at intermediate distances in an individual race and for the first leg of a relay race. Records which have not yet been fully ratified are marked with a '#' symbol in these lists.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_world_records_in_swimming",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "200m backstroke",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Aaron Peirsol is a record holder in the 200m backstroke.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "5452de11a0b8b0c855feb8d52ee116aa4b1ac3b7e719039ab35667c34cf2552b",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Nodirbek Abdusattorov have a FIDE ranking on {resolution_date} as high or higher than their ranking on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "6.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Nodirbek Abdusattorov's FIDE ranking.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "3ff636ffa947b8f0f3adb55964cd75294716abea2c27933ad89d7abff42d633e",
                "6060e34deeed7baaa22d71829e587cdc132e3ec6bbd738e46ca8c8a6536d30db"
            ],
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "3ff636ffa947b8f0f3adb55964cd75294716abea2c27933ad89d7abff42d633e",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Erigaisi Arjun have an Elo rating on {resolution_date} that's at least 1% higher than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "2778.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Erigaisi Arjun's ELO rating.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "6060e34deeed7baaa22d71829e587cdc132e3ec6bbd738e46ca8c8a6536d30db",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Parham Maghsoodloo have a FIDE ranking on {resolution_date} as high or higher than their ranking on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "20.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Parham Maghsoodloo's FIDE ranking.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "16dd2567084591088af911d551c22e004d2dba82db5d31be3f51de8f8b3dd607",
                "8e267cf2270bb8977f77685ef6144f3408a464bdb3485506109935728b17b8d2"
            ],
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "16dd2567084591088af911d551c22e004d2dba82db5d31be3f51de8f8b3dd607",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Rickettsial infection by {resolution_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "According to Wikipedia, Rickettsial infection is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "No",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Vaccine status for Rickettsial infection. 'No' means that a vaccine has not yet been created. 'Yes' means that it has.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "8e267cf2270bb8977f77685ef6144f3408a464bdb3485506109935728b17b8d2",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Norovirus by {resolution_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "According to Wikipedia, Norovirus is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "No",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Vaccine status for Norovirus. 'No' means that a vaccine has not yet been created. 'Yes' means that it has.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "6f7f685d66034654244163c275aa8d4e22e72015e99d02a1161c5bc5e88ba444",
                "e26862fb0adcb116476d35f89b9a1e32d5136aba16ec6d2f93a85f2ae272aa3f"
            ],
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "6f7f685d66034654244163c275aa8d4e22e72015e99d02a1161c5bc5e88ba444",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Ding Liren have a FIDE ranking on {resolution_date} as high or higher than their ranking on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "17.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Ding Liren's FIDE ranking.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "e26862fb0adcb116476d35f89b9a1e32d5136aba16ec6d2f93a85f2ae272aa3f",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Meri Arabidze have an Elo rating on {resolution_date} that's at least 1% higher than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "2458.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Meri Arabidze's ELO rating.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8",
                "242e17fa4cf02fba614df523a64f8527f7776f3443e6281386b5eddcd84a097c"
            ],
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Aleksandra Goryachkina have a FIDE ranking on {resolution_date} as high or higher than their ranking on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "5.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Aleksandra Goryachkina's FIDE ranking.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "242e17fa4cf02fba614df523a64f8527f7776f3443e6281386b5eddcd84a097c",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Hans Niemann have a FIDE ranking on {resolution_date} as high or higher than their ranking on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "18.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Hans Niemann's FIDE ranking.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb",
                "e5ef5991f0340690d21eec9e1fbc20d3b80d3d6dfba96b040c306080ae2ae990"
            ],
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will R\u016bta Meilutyt\u0117 still hold the world record for 50m breaststroke in long course (50 metres) swimming pools on {resolution_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_world_records_in_swimming on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "The world records in swimming are ratified by World Aquatics (formerly known as FINA), the international governing body of swimming. Records can be set in long course (50 metres) or short course (25 metres) swimming pools.\nThe ratification process is described in FINA Rule SW12, and involves submission of paperwork certifying the accuracy of the timing system and the length of the pool, satisfaction of FINA rules regarding swimwear and a negative doping test by the swimmer(s) involved. Records can be set at intermediate distances in an individual race and for the first leg of a relay race. Records which have not yet been fully ratified are marked with a '#' symbol in these lists.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_world_records_in_swimming",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "50m breaststroke",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "R\u016bta Meilutyt\u0117 is a record holder in the 50m breaststroke.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "e5ef5991f0340690d21eec9e1fbc20d3b80d3d6dfba96b040c306080ae2ae990",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Harika Dronavalli have an Elo rating on {resolution_date} that's at least 1% higher than on {forecast_due_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_rankings",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "2489.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Harika Dronavalli's ELO rating.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "242926fea271734ef8d4920e532414b38dbfdf301516fd9f0c988abd0ce777dd",
                "2525a40a08e2116a34cd952e86bf0817cfb4431a1cb2e88a645dc5587290a185"
            ],
            "source": "wikipedia",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "242926fea271734ef8d4920e532414b38dbfdf301516fd9f0c988abd0ce777dd",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Respiratory syncytial virus infection by {resolution_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "According to Wikipedia, Respiratory syncytial virus infection is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "No",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Vaccine status for Respiratory syncytial virus infection. 'No' means that a vaccine has not yet been created. 'Yes' means that it has.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "2525a40a08e2116a34cd952e86bf0817cfb4431a1cb2e88a645dc5587290a185",
                    "source": "wikipedia",
                    "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Kingella kingae infection by {resolution_date}?",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the value calculated from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases on the resolution date.",
                    "background": "According to Wikipedia, Kingella kingae infection is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "No",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "Vaccine status for Kingella kingae infection. 'No' means that a vaccine has not yet been created. 'Yes' means that it has.",
                    "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "WFC",
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "Will WFC's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/WFC for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
            "background": "Wells Fargo & Company, a financial services company, provides diversified banking, investment, mortgage, and consumer and commercial finance products and services in the United States and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Consumer Banking and Lending; Commercial Banking; Corporate and Investment Banking; and Wealth and Investment Management. The Consumer Banking and Lending segment offers diversified financial products and services for consumers and small businesses. Its financial products and services include checking and savings accounts, and credit and debit cards, as well as home, auto, personal, and small business lending services. The Commercial Banking segment provides financial solutions to private, family owned, and certain public companies. Its products and services include banking and credit products across various industry sectors and municipalities, secured lending and lease products, and treasury management services. The Corporate and Investment Banking segment offers a suite of capital markets, banking, and financial products and services, such as corporate banking, investment banking, treasury management, commercial real estate lending and servicing, equity, and fixed income solutions, as well as sales, trading, and research capabilities services to corporate, commercial real estate, government, and institutional clients. The Wealth and Investment Management segment provides personalized wealth management, brokerage, financial planning, lending, private banking, and trust and fiduciary products and services to affluent, high-net worth, and ultra-high-net worth clients. It also operates through financial advisors in brokerage and wealth offices, consumer bank branches, independent offices, and digitally through WellsTrade and Intuitive Investor. The company was founded in 1852 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/WFC",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "79.98",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of WFC.",
            "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "WTW",
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "Will WTW's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/WTW for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
            "background": "Willis Towers Watson Public Limited Company operates as an advisory, broking, and solutions company worldwide. It operates through two segments: Health, Wealth & Career and Risk & Broking. The company offers strategy and design consulting, plan management service and support, broking and administration services for health, wellbeing, and other group benefit program, including medical, dental, disability, life, voluntary benefits and other coverages; actuarial support, plan design, and administrative services for pension and retirement savings plans; retirement consulting services and solutions; and integrated solutions that consists of investment discretionary management, pension administration, core actuarial, and communication and change management assistance services. It also provides advice, data, software, and products to address clients' total rewards and talent issues; and risk advice, insurance brokerage, and consulting services in the areas of property and casualty, affinity, risk and analytics, aerospace, construction, global markets direct & facultative, financial, executive and professional risks, financial solutions, crisis management, surety, marine, and natural resources. In addition, the company offers integrated solutions that consists of investment discretionary management, pension administration, core actuarial, and communication and change management assistance services; and software and technology, risk and capital management, products and product pricing, financial and regulatory reporting, financial and capital modeling, M&A, outsourcing, and business management services. The company was formerly known as Willis Group Holdings Public Limited Company and changed its name to Willis Towers Watson Public Limited Company in January 2016. Willis Towers Watson Public Limited Company was founded in 1828 and is based in London, the United Kingdom.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/WTW",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "320.4",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of WTW.",
            "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "RJF",
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "Will RJF's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RJF for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
            "background": "Raymond James Financial, Inc., a diversified financial services company, provides private client group, capital markets, asset management, banking, and other services to individuals, corporations, and municipalities in the United States, Canada, and Europe. The Private Client Group segment offers investment services, portfolio management services, insurance and annuity products, and mutual funds; support to third-party mutual fund and annuity companies, including sales and marketing support, as well as distribution and accounting, and administrative services; margin loans; securities borrowing and lending services; diversification strategies and alternative investment products; and custodial, trade execution, research, and other support and services. The Capital Markets segment provides investment banking services, such as equity and debt underwriting, and merger and acquisition advisory services; and fixed income and equity brokerage services. This segment also offers institutional sales, securities trading, equity research, and the syndication and management of investments in low-income housing funds and funds of a similar nature. The Asset Management segment provides asset management, portfolio management, and related administrative services to retail and institutional clients; and administrative support services, such as record-keeping. The Bank segment offers various types of loans, including securities-based, commercial and industrial, commercial real estate and construction, real estate investment trust, residential mortgage, and tax-exempt loans; insured deposit accounts; retail and corporate deposit; and liquidity management products and services. The Other segment engages in the private equity investments comprising invests in third-party funds. Raymond James Financial, Inc. was founded in 1962 and is headquartered in Saint Petersburg, Florida.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RJF",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "159.84",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of RJF.",
            "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "ZBRA",
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "Will ZBRA's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ZBRA for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
            "background": "Zebra Technologies Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides enterprise asset intelligence solutions in the automatic identification and data capture solutions industry worldwide. It operates in two segments, Asset Intelligence & Tracking, and Enterprise Visibility & Mobility. The company designs, manufactures, and sells printers that produce labels, wristbands, tickets, receipts, and plastic cards; dye-sublimination thermal card printers that produce images, which are used for personal identification, access control, and financial transactions; radio frequency identification device (RFID) printers that encode data into passive RFID transponders; accessories and options for printers, including carrying cases, vehicle mounts, and battery chargers; stock and customized thermal labels, wristbands, receipts, ribbons, plastic cards, and RFID tags for printers; and electronic sensors and temperature-monitoring labels. It also provides various maintenance, technical support, repair, and managed and professional services; fixed readers, RFID enabled mobile computers, and RFID sleds; tags, sensors, exciters, middleware software, and application software; and physical inventory management solutions, and rugged and enterprise-grade mobile computing products and accessories, as well as real-time location systems and services. In addition, the company offers barcode scanners and imagers, RFID readers, industrial machine vision cameras, and fixed industrial scanners; workforce management, workflow execution and task management, and prescriptive analytics, as well as communications and collaboration solutions; and cloud-based software subscriptions, retail, and robotics automation solutions. The company serves retail and e-commerce, manufacturing, transportation and logistics, healthcare, public sector, and other industries through direct sales force and network of channel partners. The company was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in Lincolnshire, Illinois.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ZBRA",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "318.36",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of ZBRA.",
            "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "AIZ",
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "Will AIZ's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AIZ for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
            "background": "Assurant, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides business services that supports, protects, and connects consumer purchases in North America, Latin America, Europe, and the Asia Pacific. The company operates through two segments: Global Lifestyle and Global Housing. The Global Lifestyle segment offers mobile device solutions, and extended service contracts and related services for consumer electronics and appliances, and credit and other insurance products; and vehicle protection, commercial equipment, and other related services. The Global Housing segment provides lender-placed homeowners, manufactured housing, and flood insurance; renters insurance and related products; and voluntary manufactured housing, and condominium and homeowners insurance products. The company was formerly known as Fortis, Inc. and changed its name to Assurant, Inc. in February 2004. Assurant, Inc. was founded in 1892 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AIZ",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "202.96",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of AIZ.",
            "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "PAYC",
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "Will PAYC's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PAYC for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
            "background": "Paycom Software, Inc. provides cloud-based human capital management (HCM) solution delivered as software-as-a-service for small to mid-sized companies in the United States. It offers functionality and data analytics that businesses need to manage the employment life cycle from recruitment to retirement. The company's HCM solution provides a suite of applications in the areas of talent acquisition, including applicant tracking, candidate tracker, background checks, on-boarding, e-verify, and tax credit services; and time and labor management, such as time and attendance, scheduling, time-off requests, labor allocation, labor management reports/push reporting, geofencing/geotracking, and Microfence, a proprietary Bluetooth. Its HCM solution also offers payroll applications comprising better employee transaction interface, payroll and tax management, payroll card, Everyday, Paycom pay, Client Action Center, expense management, mileage tracker/fixed and variable rates, garnishment administration, and GL concierge applications; and talent management applications that include employee self-service, compensation budgeting, performance management, position management, and Paycom learning, as well as my analytics. In addition, its HCM solution provides manager on-the-go that gives supervisors and managers the ability to perform a variety of tasks, such as approving time-off requests and expense reimbursements; direct data exchange; ask here, a tool for direct line of communication to ask work-related questions; document and checklist; government and compliance; benefits administration/benefits to carrier; benefit enrollment service; COBRA administration; personnel action and performance discussion forms; surveys; 401(k) reporting; report center; and affordable care act applications, as well as Clue, which securely collects, tracks, and manages the vaccination and testing data of the workforce. Paycom Software, Inc. was founded in 1998 and is based in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PAYC",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "209.22",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of PAYC.",
            "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "AMAT",
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "Will AMAT's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMAT for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
            "background": "Applied Materials, Inc. engages in the provision of manufacturing equipment, services, and software to the semiconductor, display, and related industries. The company operates through three segments: Semiconductor Systems, Applied Global Services, and Display. The Semiconductor Systems segment develops, manufactures, and sells semiconductor capital equipment that is used to fabricate semiconductor chips or integrated circuits. The Applied Global Services segment provides integrated solutions to optimize equipment and fab performance and productivity comprising spares, upgrades, services, and other equipment and factory automation software for semiconductor, display, and other products. The Display segment offers products for manufacturing liquid crystal displays; organic light-emitting diodes; and other display technologies for TVs, monitors, laptops, personal computers, smart phones, and other consumer-oriented devices and solar energy cells. It operates in the United States, China, Korea, Taiwan, Japan, Southeast Asia, Europe, and internationally. The company was incorporated in 1967 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, California.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMAT",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "169.2",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of AMAT.",
            "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "BLDR",
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "Will BLDR's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BLDR for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
            "background": "Builders FirstSource, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and supplies building materials, manufactured components, and construction services to professional homebuilders, sub-contractors, remodelers, and consumers in the United States. It offers lumber and lumber sheet goods comprising dimensional lumber, plywood, and oriented strand board products that are used in on-site house framing; manufactured products, such as wood floor and roof trusses, floor trusses, wall panels, stairs, and engineered wood products; and windows, and interior and exterior door units, as well as interior trims and custom products comprising intricate mouldings, stair parts, and columns under the Synboard brand name. The company also provides specialty building products and services, including vinyl, composite and wood siding, exterior trims, metal studs, cement, roofing, insulation, wallboards, ceilings, cabinets, and hardware products; turn-key framing, shell construction, design assistance, and professional installation services. In addition, it offers software products, such as drafting, estimating, quoting, and virtual home design services, which provide software solutions to retailers, distributors, manufacturers, and homebuilders. The company was formerly known as BSL Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Builders FirstSource, Inc. in October 1999. Builders FirstSource, Inc. was incorporated in 1998 and is based in Irving, Texas.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BLDR",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "153.9",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of BLDR.",
            "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "LNT",
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "Will LNT's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LNT for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
            "background": "Alliant Energy Corporation operates as a utility holding company that provides regulated electricity and natural gas services in the United States. It operates in three segments: Utility Electric Operations, Utility Gas Operations, and Utility Other. The company, through its subsidiary, Interstate Power and Light Company (IPL), primarily generates and distributes electricity, and distributes and transports natural gas to retail customers in Iowa; sells electricity to wholesale customers in Minnesota, Illinois, and Iowa; and generates and distributes steam in Cedar Rapids, Iowa. Alliant Energy Corporation, through its other subsidiary, Wisconsin Power and Light Company (WPL), generates and distributes electricity, and distributes and transports natural gas to retail customers in Wisconsin; and sells electricity to wholesale customers in Wisconsin. It serves retail customers in the farming, agriculture, industrial manufacturing, chemical, packaging, and food industries, as well as wholesale customers comprising municipalities and rural electric cooperatives. In addition, the company owns and operates a short-line rail freight service in Iowa; a Mississippi River barge, rail, and truck freight terminal in Illinois; freight brokerage services; wind turbine blade recycling services; and a rail-served warehouse in Iowa. Further, it holds interests in a natural gas-fired electric generating unit near Sheboygan Falls, Wisconsin; and a wind farm located in Oklahoma. The company was formerly known as Interstate Energy Corp. and changed its name to Alliant Energy Corporation in May 1999. Alliant Energy Corporation was incorporated in 1981 and is headquartered in Madison, Wisconsin.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LNT",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "61.33",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of LNT.",
            "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "UBER",
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "Will UBER's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/UBER for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
            "background": "Uber Technologies, Inc. develops and operates proprietary technology applications in the United States, Canada, Latin America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. It operates through three segments: Mobility, Delivery, and Freight. The Mobility segment connects consumers with a range of transportation modalities, such as ridesharing, carsharing, micromobility, rentals, public transit, taxis, and other modalities; and offers riders in a variety of vehicle types, as well as financial partnerships products and advertising services. The Delivery segment allows consumers to search for and discover restaurants to grocery, alcohol, convenience, and other retails, as well as order a meal or other items, and either pick-up at the restaurant or have it delivered; and provides Uber direct, a white-label delivery-as-a-service for retailers and restaurants, as well as advertising services. The Freight segment manages transportation and logistics network, which connects shippers and carriers in digital marketplace, including carriers upfronts, pricing, and shipment booking; and offers on-demand platform to automate logistics end-to-end transactions for small-and medium-sized business to global enterprises. The company was formerly known as Ubercab, Inc. and changed its name to Uber Technologies, Inc. in February 2011. Uber Technologies, Inc. was founded in 2009 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/UBER",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "79.42",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of UBER.",
            "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "NOW",
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "Will NOW's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NOW for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
            "background": "ServiceNow, Inc. provides cloud-based solution for digital workflows in the North America, Europe, the Middle East and Africa, Asia Pacific, and internationally. The company operates the Now platform, an AI platform for digital transformation machine learning, robotic process automation, process mining, analytics, and low-code/no-code development tools. It also provides asset management, integrated risk management, IT service management, Operational Technology management, Security Operations, strategic portfolio management, IT operations management products; customer service management product; and field service management applications. n addition, the company offers human resources, legal, and workplace service delivery products; app engine product; automation engine; platform privacy and security product; and source-to-pay operations. It serves to government, financial services, healthcare and life science, manufacturing, Public Sector, retail, IT services, technology, and Telecom sectors through service providers and resale partners. The company was formerly known as Service-now.com and changed its name to ServiceNow, Inc. in May 2012. ServiceNow, Inc. was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, California.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NOW",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "986.63",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of NOW.",
            "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "SJM",
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "Will SJM's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SJM for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
            "background": "The J. M. Smucker Company manufactures and markets branded food and beverage products worldwide. It operates in four segments: U.S. Retail Coffee, U.S. Retail Frozen Handheld and Spreads, U.S. Retail Pet Foods, and Sweet Baked Snacks. The company offers coffee, pet snacks, peanut butter, cat food, frozen handheld products, sweet baked goods, fruit and specialty spreads, portion control products, baking mixes and ingredients, toppings and syrups, dog food, cookies, frozen sandwiches and snacks, hot beverages, frozen handheld products, and flour. It provides its products under the Folgers, Caf\u00e9 Bustelo, Dunkin', Jif, Smucker's, Smucker's Uncrustables, Meow Mix, Milk-Bone, Pup-Peroni, Canine Carry Outs, Hostess, Voortman, 1850, Robin Hood, and Five Roses brands. The company sells its products through direct sales and brokers to food retailers, club stores, discount and dollar stores, online retailers, pet specialty stores, distributors, drug stores, military commissaries, mass merchandisers, supermarket chains, national mass retailers, convenience stores, vending channels, and foodservice distributors and operators. The J. M. Smucker Company was founded in 1897 and is headquartered in Orrville, Ohio.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SJM",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "102.03",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of SJM.",
            "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "COST",
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "Will COST's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/COST for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
            "background": "Costco Wholesale Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the operation of membership warehouses in the United States, Puerto Rico, Canada, Mexico, Japan, the United Kingdom, Korea, Australia, Taiwan, China, Spain, France, Iceland, New Zealand, and Sweden. The company offers branded and private-label products in a range of merchandise categories. It offers merchandise, such as sundries, dry groceries, candies, coolers, freezers, deli, liquor, and tobacco; appliances, electronics, health and beauty aids, hardware, lawn and garden, sporting goods, tires, toys and seasonal products, office supplies, automotive care products, postages, tickets, apparel, small appliances, furniture, domestics, housewares, special order kiosks, and jewelry; and meat, produce, service deli, and bakery products. The company also operates gasoline, pharmacies, optical, food courts, hearing-aid centers, and tire installation centers; and offers business delivery, travel, grocery, and various other services online. It also operates e-commerce websites. The company was formerly known as Costco Companies, Inc. and changed its name to Costco Wholesale Corporation in August 1999. Costco Wholesale Corporation was founded in 1976 and is based in Issaquah, Washington.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/COST",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "1071.85",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of COST.",
            "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "KLAC",
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "Will KLAC's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/KLAC for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
            "background": "KLA Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, manufacture, and marketing of process control, process-enabling, and yield management solutions for the semiconductor and related electronics industries worldwide. It operates through three segments: Semiconductor Process Control; Specialty Semiconductor Process; and PCB and Component Inspection. The company offers inspection and review tools to identify, locate, characterize, review, and analyze defects on various surfaces of patterned and unpatterned wafers; metrology systems that are used to measure pattern dimensions, film thickness, film stress, layer-to-layer alignment, pattern placement, surface topography, and electro-optical properties for wafers; chemical process control equipment; wired and wireless sensor wafers and reticles; wafer defect inspection, review, and metrology systems; reticle inspection and metrology systems; and semiconductor software solutions that provide run-time process control, defect excursion identification, process corrections, and defect classification to accelerate yield learning rates and reduce production risk. It also provides etch, plasma dicing, deposition, and other wafer processing technologies and solutions for the semiconductor and microelectronics industry. In addition, the company offers direct imaging, inspection, optical shaping, inkjet and additive printing, UV laser drilling, and computer-aided manufacturing and engineering solutions for the PCB market; inspection and electrical testing systems to identify and classify defects, as well as systems to repair defects for the display market; and inspection and metrology systems for quality control and yield improvement in advanced and traditional semiconductor packaging markets. The company was formerly known as KLA-Tencor Corporation and changed its name to KLA Corporation in July 2019. KLA Corporation was incorporated in 1975 and is headquartered in Milpitas, California.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/KLAC",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "750.74",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of KLAC.",
            "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "PNW",
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "Will PNW's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PNW for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
            "background": "Pinnacle West Capital Corporation, through its subsidiary, provides retail and wholesale electric services primarily in the state of Arizona. The company engages in the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity using coal, nuclear, gas, oil, and solar generating facilities. Its transmission facilities include overhead lines and underground lines; and distribution facilities consist of overhead lines and underground primary cables. The company also owns and maintains transmission and distribution substations; and owns energy storage facilities. Pinnacle West Capital Corporation was incorporated in 1985 and is headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PNW",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "89.26",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of PNW.",
            "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "HIG",
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "Will HIG's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HIG for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
            "background": "The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance and financial services to individual and business customers in the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally. Its Commercial Lines segment offers insurance coverages, including workers' compensation, property, automobile, general and professional liability, package business, umbrella, fidelity and surety, marine, livestock, accident, health, and reinsurance through regional offices, branches, sales and policyholder service centers, independent retail agents and brokers, wholesale agents, and reinsurance brokers. The company's Personal Lines segment provides automobile, homeowners, and personal umbrella coverages through direct-to-consumer channels and independent agents. Its Property & Casualty Other Operations segment offers coverage for asbestos and environmental exposures. The company's Group Benefits segment provides group life, disability, and other group coverages to members of employer groups, associations, and affinity groups through direct insurance policies; reinsurance to other insurance companies; employer paid and voluntary product coverages; disability underwriting, administration, and claims processing to self-funded employer plans; and leave management solution. This segment also distributes its group insurance products and services through brokers, consultants, third-party administrators, trade associations, and private exchanges. Its Hartford Funds segment offers managed mutual funds across various asset classes; and exchange-traded funds through broker-dealer organizations, independent financial advisers, defined contribution plans, financial consultants, bank trust groups, and registered investment advisers, as well as investment management, distribution, and administrative services, such as product design, implementation, and oversight. The company was founded in 1810 and is headquartered in Hartford, Connecticut.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HIG",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "111.98",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of HIG.",
            "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "MPWR",
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "Will MPWR's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MPWR for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
            "background": "Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. engages in the design, development, marketing, and sale of semiconductor-based power electronics solutions for the storage and computing, automotive, enterprise data, consumer, communications, and industrial markets. The company provides direct current (DC) to DC integrated circuits (ICs) that are used to convert and control voltages of various electronic systems, such as cloud-based CPU servers, server artificial intelligence applications, storage applications, commercial notebooks, digital cockpit, power sources, home appliances, 4G and 5G infrastructure, and satellite communications applications. It offers lighting control ICs for backlighting that are used in systems, which provide the light source for LCD panels in computers and notebooks, monitors, car navigation systems, and televisions, as well as for general illumination products. The company sells its products through third-party distributors, value-added resellers, directly to original equipment manufacturers, original design manufacturers, electronic manufacturing service providers, and other end customers. It serves China, Taiwan, South Korea, Europe, Japan, Southeast Asia, the United States, and internationally. Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Kirkland, Washington.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MPWR",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "684.93",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of MPWR.",
            "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "BIO",
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "Will BIO's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BIO for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
            "background": "Bio-Rad Laboratories, Inc. manufactures and distributes life science research and clinical diagnostic products in the United States, Europe, Asia, Canada, and Latin America. It operates through two segments, Life Science and Clinical Diagnostics. The company develops, manufactures, and markets instruments, systems, reagents, and consumables to separate, purify, characterize, and quantitate biological materials such as cells, proteins, and nucleic acids for proteomics, genomics, biopharmaceutical production, cellular biology, and food safety markets. It also designs, manufactures, markets, and supports test systems, informatics systems, test kits, and specialized quality controls for hospitals, diagnostic reference, transfusion, and physician office laboratories. The company offers its products through its direct sales force, as well as through distributors, agents, brokers, and resellers. Bio-Rad Laboratories, Inc. was founded in 1952 and is headquartered in Hercules, California.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BIO",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "277.16",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of BIO.",
            "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "HPQ",
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "Will HPQ's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HPQ for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
            "background": "HP Inc. provides personal computing, printing, 3D printing, hybrid work, gaming, and other related technologies in the United States and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Personal Systems, Printing, and Corporate Investments. The Personal Systems segment offers commercial and consumer desktops and notebooks, workstations, thin clients, retail point-of-sale systems, displays, software, support, and services, as well as hybrid systems. The Printing segment provides consumer and commercial printer hardware, supplies, solutions, and services, as well as focuses on graphics and 3D printing and personalization solutions in the commercial and industrial markets. The Corporate Investments segment is involved in the business incubation and investment projects. It serves individual consumers, small- and medium-sized businesses, and large enterprises. The company was formerly known as Hewlett-Packard Company and changed its name to HP Inc. in October 2015. HP Inc. was founded in 1939 and is headquartered in Palo Alto, California.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HPQ",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "33.64",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of HPQ.",
            "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "FI",
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "Will FI's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FI for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
            "background": "Fiserv, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides payments and financial services technology services in the United States, Europe, the Middle East and Africa, Latin America, the Asia-Pacific, and internationally. It operates through Merchant Acceptance, Financial Technology, and Payments and Network segments. The Merchant Acceptance segment provides merchant acquiring and digital commerce services; mobile payment services; security and fraud protection products; Clover, a cloud based POS and integrated commerce operating system for small and mid-sized businesses and independent software vendors; and Carat, an integrated operating system for large businesses. This segment distributes through various channels, including direct sales teams, strategic partnerships with agent sales forces, independent software vendors, financial institutions, and other strategic partners in the form of joint venture alliances, revenue sharing alliances, and referral agreement. The Financial Technology segment offers customer deposit and loan accounts, as well as manages an institution's general ledger and central information files. This segment also provides digital banking, financial and risk management, professional services and consulting, check processing, and other products and services. The Payments and Network segment offers card transactions, such as debit, credit, and prepaid card processing and services; funds access, debit payments, cardless ATM access, and surcharge-free ATM network; security and fraud protection products; card production; print services; and various network services, as well as non-card digital payment software and services, including bill payment, account-to-account transfers, person-to-person payments, electronic billing, and security and fraud protection products. It serves merchants, banks, credit unions, other financial institutions, and corporate clients. Fiserv, Inc. was incorporated in 1984 and is headquartered in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FI",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "230.6",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of FI.",
            "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "SBUX",
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "Will SBUX's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SBUX for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
            "background": "Starbucks Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a roaster, marketer, and retailer of coffee worldwide. The company operates through three segments: North America, International, and Channel Development. Its stores offer coffee, tea, and other beverages, roasted whole beans and ground coffees, single serve products, and ready-to-drink beverages; and various food products, such as pastries, breakfast sandwiches, and lunch items. The company also licenses its trademarks through licensed stores, and grocery and foodservice accounts. The company offers its products under the Starbucks Coffee, Teavana, Seattle's Best Coffee, Ethos, and Starbucks Reserve brands. Starbucks Corporation was founded in 1971 and is based in Seattle, Washington.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SBUX",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "112.55",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of SBUX.",
            "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "APA",
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "Will APA's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/APA for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
            "background": "APA Corporation, an independent energy company, explores for, develops, and produces natural gas, crude oil, and natural gas liquids. It has oil and gas operations in the United States, Egypt, and North Sea. The company also has exploration and appraisal activities in Suriname, as well as holds interests in projects located in Uruguay and internationally. APA Corporation was incorporated in 1954 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/APA",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "23.14",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of APA.",
            "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "CHD",
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "Will CHD's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CHD for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
            "background": "Church & Dwight Co., Inc. develops, manufactures, and markets household, personal care, and specialty products. It operates in three segments: Consumer Domestic, Consumer International, and Specialty Products Division. The company offers cat litters, carpet deodorizers, laundry detergents, and baking soda, as well as other baking soda based products under the ARM & HAMMER brand; condoms, lubricants, and vibrators under the TROJAN brand; stain removers, cleaning solutions, laundry detergents, and bleach alternatives under the OXICLEAN brand; toothbrushes under the SPINBRUSH brand; home pregnancy and ovulation test kits under the FIRST RESPONSE brand; depilatories under the NAIR brand; oral analgesics under the ORAJEL brand; laundry detergents under the XTRA brand; gummy dietary supplements under the L'IL CRITTERS and VITAFUSION brands; dry shampoos under the BATISTE brand; water flossers and showerheads under the WATERPIK brand; cold shortening and relief products under the ZICAM brand; oral care products under the THERABREATH brand; and acne treatment products under the HERO brand. Its specialty products include animal and food productivity products, such as ARM & HAMMER baking soda as a feed additive to help dairy cow; BIO-CHLOR and FERMENTEN used to reduce health issues associated with calving, as well as needed protein; CELMANAX refined functional carbohydrate, a yeast-based prebiotic; and CERTILLUS a probiotics products used in the poultry, dairy, beef, and swine industries. It offers sodium bicarbonate; and cleaning and deodorizing products. The company sells its consumer products through supermarkets, mass merchandisers, wholesale clubs, drugstores, convenience stores, home stores, dollar and other discount stores, pet and other specialty stores, and websites and other e-commerce channels; and specialty products to industrial customers and livestock producers through distributors. The company was founded in 1846 and is headquartered in Ewing, New Jersey.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CHD",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "105.0",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of CHD.",
            "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "DUK",
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "Will DUK's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DUK for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
            "background": "Duke Energy Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an energy company in the United States. It operates through two segments: Electric Utilities and Infrastructure (EU&I), and Gas Utilities and Infrastructure (GU&I). The EU&I segment generates, transmits, distributes, and sells electricity in the Carolinas, Florida, and the Midwest. It generates electricity through coal, hydroelectric, natural gas, oil, solar and wind sources, renewables, and nuclear fuel. This segment also engages in the wholesale of electricity to municipalities, electric cooperative utilities, and load-serving entities. The GU&I segment distributes natural gas to residential, commercial, industrial, and power generation natural gas customers; and invests in pipeline transmission projects, renewable natural gas projects, and natural gas storage facilities. The company was formerly known as Duke Energy Holding Corp. and changed its name to Duke Energy Corporation in April 2006. Duke Energy Corporation was founded in 1904 and is headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DUK",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "111.6",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of DUK.",
            "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "MPC",
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "Will MPC's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MPC for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
            "background": "Marathon Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated downstream energy company primarily in the United States. The company operates through Refining & Marketing, and Midstream segments. The Refining & Marketing segment refines crude oil and other feedstocks at its refineries in the Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and West Coast regions of the United States; and purchases refined products and ethanol for resale and distributes refined products, including renewable diesel, through transportation, storage, distribution, and marketing services. Its refined products include transportation fuels, such as reformulated gasolines and blend-grade gasolines; heavy fuel oil; and asphalt. This segment also manufactures propane and petrochemicals. It sells refined products to wholesale marketing customers in the United States and internationally, buyers on the spot market, and independent entrepreneurs who operate primarily Marathon branded outlets, as well as through long-term fuel supply contracts to direct dealer locations primarily under the ARCO brand. The Midstream segment transports, stores, distributes, and markets crude oil and refined products through refining logistics assets, pipelines, terminals, towboats, and barges; gathers, processes, and transports natural gas; and gathers, transports, fractionates, stores, and markets natural gas liquids. Marathon Petroleum Corporation was founded in 1887 and is headquartered in Findlay, Ohio.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MPC",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "156.06",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of MPC.",
            "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "CNC",
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "Will CNC's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CNC for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
            "background": "Centene Corporation operates as a healthcare enterprise that provides programs and services to under-insured and uninsured families, commercial organizations, and military families in the United States. The company operates through Medicaid, Medicare, Commercial, and Other segments. The Medicaid segment offers health plan coverage, including medicaid expansion, aged, blind, disabled, children's health insurance program, foster care, medicare-medicaid plans, long-term services and support. This segment also provides healthcare products. The Medicare segment offers special needs and medicare supplement, and prescription drug plans. The Commercial segment provides health insurance marketplace product for individual, small, and large group commercials. It also operates clinical healthcare and pharmacies, as well as offers dental and speech therapy services. In addition, the company engages in the government contracts business under the TRICARE program and other healthcare related government contracts. It provides services through primary and specialty care physicians, hospitals, and ancillary providers. Centene Corporation was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Saint Louis, Missouri.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CNC",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "56.86",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of CNC.",
            "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "FOX",
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "Will FOX's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FOX for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
            "background": "Fox Corporation operates as a news, sports, and entertainment company in the United States (U.S.). The company operates through four segments: Cable Network Programming, Television, Credible, and The FOX Studio Lot. The Cable Network Programming segment produces and licenses news and sports content for distribution through traditional cable television systems, direct broadcast satellite operators and telecommunication companies, virtual multi-channel video programming distributors, and other digital platforms primarily in the U.S. Television segment produces, acquires, markets, and distributes programming through the FOX broadcast network, advertising supported video-on-demand service Tubi, and operates power broadcast television stations including duopolies and other digital platform; and produces content for third parties. The Credible segment engages in the consumer finance marketplace. The FOX Studio Lot segment provides television and film production services along with office space, studio operation services and includes all operations of the facility. The company was incorporated in 2018 and is headquartered in New York, New York.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FOX",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "52.39",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of FOX.",
            "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "EBAY",
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "Will EBAY's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/EBAY for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
            "background": "eBay Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates marketplace platforms that connect buyers and sellers in the United States, the United Kingdom, China, Germany, and internationally. The company's marketplace platform includes its online marketplace at ebay.com, off-platform businesses, and the eBay suite of mobile apps. Its platforms enable users to list, sell, and buy various products. The company was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/EBAY",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "69.9",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of EBAY.",
            "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "EL",
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "Will EL's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/EL for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
            "background": "The Est\u00e9e Lauder Companies Inc. manufactures, markets, and sells skin care, makeup, fragrance, and hair care products worldwide. It offers skin care products, including moisturizers, serums, cleansers, toners, body care, exfoliators, acne care and oil correctors, facial masks, and sun care products; and makeup products, such as lipsticks, lip glosses, mascaras, foundations, eyeshadows, and powders, as well as compacts, brushes, and other makeup tools. The company also provides fragrance products in various forms comprising eau de parfum sprays and colognes, as well as lotions, powders, creams, candles, and soaps; and hair care products, including shampoos, conditioners, styling products, treatment, finishing sprays, and hair color products, as well as sells ancillary products and services. It offers its products under the Est\u00e9e Lauder, Clinique, Origins, M\u00b7A\u00b7C, Bobbi Brown Cosmetics, La Mer, Aveda, Jo Malone London, TOM FORD, Too Faced, Dr.Jart+, and The Ordinary brands. The company sells its products through department stores, specialty-multi retailers, upscale perfumeries and pharmacies, and salons and spas; freestanding stores; its own and authorized retailer websites; third-party online malls; stores in airports; and duty-free locations. The Est\u00e9e Lauder Companies Inc. was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in New York, New York.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/EL",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "68.69",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of EL.",
            "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "IQV",
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "Will IQV's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IQV for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
            "background": "IQVIA Holdings Inc. provides clinical research services, commercial insights, and healthcare intelligence to the life sciences and healthcare industries in the Americas, Europe, Africa, and the Asia-Pacific. It operates through three segments: Technology & Analytics Solutions, Research & Development Solutions, and Contract Sales & Medical Solutions. The Technology & Analytics Solutions segment offers a range of cloud-based applications and related implementation services; real world solutions that enable life sciences and provider customers to generate and disseminate evidence, which informs health care decision making and improves patients' outcomes; and strategic and implementation consulting services, such as advanced analytics and commercial processes outsourcing services. This segment also provides country level performance metrics related to sales of pharmaceutical products, prescribing trends, medical treatment, and promotional activity across various channels, including retail, hospital, and mail order; and measurement of sales or prescribing activity at the regional, zip code, and individual prescriber level. The Research & Development Solutions segment offers project management and clinical monitoring; clinical trial support; strategic planning and design services; and patient and site centric solutions, as well as central laboratory, genomic, bioanalytical, ADME, discovery, and vaccine and biomarker laboratory services. The Contract Sales & Medical Solutions segment provides health care provider and patient engagement services, and scientific strategy and medical affairs services. It serves pharmaceutical, biotechnology, device and diagnostic, and consumer health companies. The company was formerly known as Quintiles IMS Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to IQVIA Holdings Inc. in November 2017. The company is based in Durham, North Carolina.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IQV",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "193.44",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of IQV.",
            "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "IR",
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "Will IR's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IR for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
            "background": "Ingersoll Rand Inc. provides various mission-critical air, gas, liquid, and solid flow creation technologies services and solutions worldwide. It operates through two segments, Industrial Technologies and Services, and Precision and Science Technologies. The Industrial Technologies and Services segment designs, manufactures, markets, and services air and gas compression, vacuum, and blower products; fluid transfer equipment and loading systems; and power tools and lifting equipment, including associated aftermarket parts, consumables, air treatment equipment, controls, other accessories, and services under the under the Ingersoll Rand, Gardner Denver, Nash, CompAir, Elmo Rietschle brands, etc. The Precision and Science Technologies segment designs, manufactures, and markets diaphragm, piston, water-powered, peristaltic, gear, vane, progressive cavity, and syringe pumps; and gas boosters, hydrogen compression systems, automated liquid handling systems, odorant injection systems, controls, software, and other related components and accessories for liquid and gas dosing, transfer, dispensing, compression, sampling, pressure management, and flow control in specialized or critical applications under the Air Dimensions, Albin, ARO, Dosatron, Haskel, Ingersoll Rand, LMI, Maximus, Milton Roy, MP, Oberdorfer, Seepex, Thomas, Welch, Williams, YZ, and Zinnser Analytic brand names. This segment's products are used in medical, life sciences, industrial manufacturing, water and wastewater, chemical processing, energy, food and beverage, agriculture, and other markets. It sells through an integrated network of direct sales representatives and independent distributors. The company was formerly known as Gardner Denver Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Ingersoll Rand Inc. in March 2020. Ingersoll Rand Inc. was founded in 1859 and is headquartered in Davidson, North Carolina.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IR",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "85.72",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of IR.",
            "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "FSLR",
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "Will FSLR's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FSLR for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
            "background": "First Solar, Inc., a solar technology company, provides photovoltaic (PV) solar energy solutions in the United States, France, Japan, Chile, and internationally. The company manufactures and sells PV solar modules with a thin film semiconductor technology that provides a lower-carbon alternative to conventional crystalline silicon PV solar modules. It designs, manufactures, and sells cadmium telluride solar modules that converts sunlight into electricity. The company's residual business operations include project development activities, operations and maintenance services, and the sale of PV solar power systems to third-party customers. It serves developers and operators of systems, utilities, independent power producers, commercial and industrial companies, and other system owners. The company was formerly known as First Solar Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to First Solar, Inc. in 2006. First Solar, Inc. was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Tempe, Arizona.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FSLR",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "159.76",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of FSLR.",
            "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "MDLZ",
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "Will MDLZ's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MDLZ for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
            "background": "Mondelez International, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures, markets, and sells snack food and beverage products in the Latin America, North America, Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Europe. It provides biscuits and baked snacks, including cookies, crackers, salted snacks, snack bars, and cakes and pastries; chocolates; and gums and candies, as well as various cheese and grocery, and powdered beverage products. The company's brand portfolio includes Oreo, Ritz, LU, CLIF Bar, and Tate's Bake Shop biscuits and baked snacks, as well as Cadbury Dairy Milk, Milka, and Toblerone chocolate. It serves to supermarket chains, wholesalers, supercenters, club stores, mass merchandisers, distributors, convenience stores, gasoline stations, drug stores, value stores, and other retail food outlets through direct store delivery, company-owned and satellite warehouses, distribution centers, third party distributors, and other facilities, as well as through independent sales offices and agents. The company also sells products directly to businesses and consumers through e-retail platforms, retailer digital platforms, as well as through its direct-to-consumer websites and social media platforms. Mondelez International, Inc. was formerly known as Kraft Foods Inc. and changed its name to Mondelez International, Inc. in October 2012. The company was incorporated in 2000 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MDLZ",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "60.82",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of MDLZ.",
            "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "CRM",
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "Will CRM's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CRM for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
            "background": "Salesforce, Inc. provides Customer Relationship Management (CRM) technology that brings companies and customers together worldwide. The company's service includes sales to store data, monitor leads and progress, forecast opportunities, gain insights through analytics and artificial intelligence, and deliver quotes, contracts, and invoices; and service that enables companies to deliver trusted and highly personalized customer support at scale. In addition, its platform offering comprise a flexible platform that enables companies of various sizes, locations, and industries to build business workflow and apps with customer; online learning platform that allows anyone to learn in-demand Salesforce skills; and Slack, an intelligent productivity platform. The company's marketing services enables companies to plan, personalize, automate, and optimize customer marketing journey, connecting interaction, and connected products; and commerce services, which empowers shopping experience across various customer touchpoint, such as mobile, web, social, and stores and provides click-to-code tools that offers customers to build and deploy solutions. Further, its analytics offering includes Tableau, an end-to-end analytics solution for range of enterprise use cases and intelligent analytics with AI models, spot trends, predict outcomes, creates summaries, timely recommendations, and take action from any device; and integration service including MuleSoft, which provides building blocks to deliver end-to-end and connected experiences. Additionally, the company provides data cloud, a hyperscale data engine native to Salesforce; vertical services to meet the needs of customers in industries, such as financial services, healthcare and life sciences, manufacturing and automotive and government; and offers salesforce starter for small and medium-sized businesses. Salesforce, Inc. was incorporated in 1999 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CRM",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "326.54",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of CRM.",
            "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "AKAM",
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "Will AKAM's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AKAM for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
            "background": "Akamai Technologies, Inc. provides cloud computing, security, and content delivery services in the United States and internationally. The company offers cloud solutions to keep infrastructure, websites, applications, application programming interfaces, and users safe from various cyberattacks and online threats while enhancing performance. It also provides web and mobile performance solutions to enable dynamic websites and applications; media delivery solutions, including video streaming and video player services, game and software delivery, broadcast operations, authoritative domain name system, resolution, and data and analytics; and cloud computing services, such as compute, storage, networking, database, and container management services to build, deploy, and secure applications and workloads. In addition, the company offers content delivery solutions; and an array of service and support to assist customers with integrating, configuring, optimizing, and managing its offerings. It sells its solutions through various channel partners. Akamai Technologies, Inc. was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AKAM",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "100.01",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of AKAM.",
            "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "KMX",
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "Will KMX's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/KMX for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
            "background": "CarMax, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a retailer of used vehicles and related products in the United States. It operates in two segments: CarMax Sales Operations and CarMax Auto Finance. The CarMax Sales Operations segment offers customers a range of makes and models of used vehicles, including domestic, imported, and luxury vehicles, as well as hybrid and electric vehicles; used vehicle auctions; extended protection plans to customers at the time of sale; and reconditioning and vehicle repair services. The CarMax Auto Finance segment provides financing alternatives for retail customers across a range of credit spectrum and arrangements with various financial institutions. The company was founded in 1993 and is based in Richmond, Virginia.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/KMX",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "88.9",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of KMX.",
            "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "EQR",
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "Will EQR's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/EQR for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
            "background": "Equity Residential is committed to creating communities where people thrive. The Company, a member of the S&P 500, is focused on the acquisition, development and management of residential properties located in and around dynamic cities that attract affluent long-term renters. Equity Residential owns or has investments in 311 properties consisting of 84,249 apartment units, with an established presence in Boston, New York, Washington, D.C., Seattle, San Francisco and Southern California, and an expanding presence in Denver, Atlanta, Dallas/Ft. Worth and Austin.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/EQR",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "71.23",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of EQR.",
            "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "BKR",
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "Will BKR's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BKR for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
            "background": "Baker Hughes Company provides a portfolio of technologies and services to energy and industrial value chain worldwide. The company operates through Oilfield Services & Equipment (OFSE) and Industrial & Energy Technology (IET) segments. The OFSE segment designs and manufactures products and provides related services, including exploration, appraisal, development, production, rejuvenation, and decommissioning for onshore and offshore oilfield operations. This segment also provides drilling services, drill bits, and drilling and completions fluids; completions, intervention, measurements, pressure pumping, and wireline services; artificial lift systems, and oilfield and industrial chemicals; subsea projects and services, flexible pipe systems, and surface pressure control systems; and integrated well services and solutions. It serves oil and natural gas companies; the United States and international independent oil and natural gas companies; national or state-owned oil companies; engineering, procurement, and construction contractors; geothermal companies; and other oilfield service companies. The IET segment provides gas technology equipment, including drivers, driven equipment, and turnkey solutions for the mechanical and electric-drive, compression, and power-generation applications; and energy sectors, such as oil and gas, LNG operations, petrochemical, and carbon solutions. This segment also provides rack-based vibrating monitoring equipment and sensors; integrated asset performance management products; inspection services; pumps, valves, and gears; precision sensors and instrumentation, and condition monitoring solutions. It serves upstream, midstream, downstream, onshore, offshore, and small-to-large scale customers. The company was formerly known as Baker Hughes, a GE company and changed its name to Baker Hughes Company in October 2019. Baker Hughes Company was incorporated in 2016 and is based in Houston, Texas.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BKR",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "46.4",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of BKR.",
            "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "CMCSA",
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "Will CMCSA's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CMCSA for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
            "background": "Comcast Corporation operates as a media and technology company worldwide. It operates through Residential Connectivity & Platforms, Business Services Connectivity, Media, Studios, and Theme Parks segments. The Residential Connectivity & Platforms segment provides residential broadband and wireless connectivity services, residential and business video services, sky-branded entertainment television networks, and advertising. The Business Services Connectivity segment offers connectivity services for small business locations, which include broadband, wireline voice, and wireless services; and ethernet network services for medium-sized customers and larger enterprises. The Media segment operates NBCUniversal's national and regional cable networks; the NBC and Telemundo broadcast networks and owned local broadcast television stations; and Peacock, a direct-to-consumer streaming services. It also operates international television networks comprising the Sky Sports networks, as well as other digital properties. The Studios segment operates NBCUniversal and Sky film and television studio production and distribution operations. The Theme Parks segment operates Universal theme parks in Orlando, Florida; Hollywood, California; Osaka, Japan; and Beijing, China. The company also offers a consolidated streaming platforms under the Philadelphia Flyers and the Wells Fargo Center arena in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania; and Xumo. Comcast Corporation was founded in 1963 and is headquartered in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CMCSA",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "35.39",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of CMCSA.",
            "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "MCHP",
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "Will MCHP's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MCHP for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
            "background": "Microchip Technology Incorporated engages in the development, manufacture, and sale of smart, connected, and secure embedded control solutions in the Americas, Europe, and Asia. The company offers general purpose 8-bit, 16-bit, and 32-bit mixed-signal microcontrollers; 32-bit embedded mixed-signal microprocessors; and specialized microcontrollers for automotive, industrial, computing, communications, lighting, power supplies, motor control, human machine interface, security, wired connectivity, and wireless connectivity applications. It also provides analog, interface, mixed signal, and timing products comprising power management, linear, mixed-signal, high-voltage, thermal management, discrete diodes, and metal oxide semiconductor field effect transistors (MOSFETS), radio frequency (RF), drivers, safety, security, timing, USB, Ethernet, wireless, and other interface products; field-programmable gate array (FPGA) products; and application development tools that enable system designers to program microcontroller, FPGA, and microprocessor products for specific applications. In addition, the company offers serial electrically erasable programmable read-only memory, serial flash memories, parallel flash memories, serial static random access memories, and serial electrically erasable random access memories for the production of very small footprint devices; and licenses its SuperFlash embedded flash and non-volatile memory technologies to foundries, integrated device manufacturers, and design partners for use in the manufacture of microcontroller products, gate array, RF, analog, and neuromorphic compute products that require embedded non-volatile memory, as well as provides engineering services. Further, it offers wafer foundry and assembly, and test subcontracting manufacturing services; and timing systems products, application specific integrated circuits, and aerospace products. The company was incorporated in 1989 and is headquartered in Chandler, Arizona.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MCHP",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "55.76",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of MCHP.",
            "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "NDSN",
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "Will NDSN's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NDSN for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
            "background": "Nordson Corporation engineers, manufactures, and markets products and systems to dispense, apply, and control adhesives, coatings, polymers, sealants, biomaterials, and other fluids. It operates through three segments: Industrial Precision Solutions; Medical and Fluid Solutions; and Advanced Technology Solutions. The Industrial Precision Solutions segment provides dispensing, coating, and laminating systems for adhesives, lotions, liquids, and fibers to disposable products and roll goods; automated adhesive dispensing systems used in packaged goods industries; components and systems for thermoplastic and biopolymer melt stream; fluid components, such as nozzles, pumps, and filters; smart components that measure and control the flow, quantity and location of dispensed fluid; control systems; and dispensing, coating, and laminating systems. It also offers automated and manual dispensing products and systems for cold materials, container coating, liquid finishing, and powder coating, as well as ultraviolet equipment used in curing and drying operations; and in-line measurement sensors, gauges and analyzers, lasers, X-ray, optical and nucleonic technologies, and proprietary algorithms and software. The Medical and Fluid Solutions segment offers cannulas, catheters, and medical balloons; single-use plastic components; precision manual and semi-automated dispensers; and plastic molded syringes, cartridges, tips, and fluid connection components. The Advanced Technology Solutions segment provides automated dispensing systems for fluids attachment, protection, and coating, as well as related gas plasma treatment systems for cleaning and conditioning surfaces; and bond testing and automated optical, acoustic microscopy, and x-ray inspection systems for semiconductor and printed circuit board industries. The company markets its products through direct sales force, distributors, and sales representatives. The company was founded in 1909 and is headquartered in Westlake, Ohio.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NDSN",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "216.42",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of NDSN.",
            "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "JNJ",
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "Will JNJ's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/JNJ for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
            "background": "Johnson & Johnson, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research and development, manufacture, and sale of various products in the healthcare field worldwide. It operates in two segments, Innovative Medicine and MedTech. The Innovative Medicine segment offers products for various therapeutic areas, such as immunology, including rheumatoid arthritis, psoriatic arthritis, inflammatory bowel disease, and psoriasis; infectious diseases comprising HIV/AIDS; neuroscience, consisting of mood disorders, neurodegenerative disorders, and schizophrenia; oncology, such as prostate cancer, hematologic malignancies, lung cancer, and bladder cancer; cardiovascular and metabolism, including thrombosis, diabetes, and macular degeneration; and pulmonary hypertension comprising pulmonary arterial hypertension through retailers, wholesalers, distributors, hospitals, and healthcare professionals for prescription use. The MedTech segment provides electrophysiology products to treat heart rhythm disorders; the heart recovery portfolio, which includes technologies to treat severe coronary artery disease requiring high-risk PCI or AMI cardiogenic shock; circulatory restoration products for the treatment of calcified coronary artery and peripheral artery diseases; and neurovascular care that treats hemorrhagic and ischemic stroke. This segment also offers an orthopaedics portfolio that includes products and enabling technologies that support hips, knees, trauma, spine, sports, and other; surgery portfolios comprising advanced and general surgery technologies, as well as solutions for breast aesthetics and reconstruction; contact lenses under the ACUVUE brand; and TECNIS intraocular lenses for cataract surgery. It distributes its products to wholesalers, hospitals, and retailers, as well as physicians, nurses, hospitals, eye care professionals, and clinics. The company was founded in 1886 and is based in New Brunswick, New Jersey.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/JNJ",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "156.15",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of JNJ.",
            "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "MMM",
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "Will MMM's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MMM for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
            "background": "3M Company provides diversified technology services in the Americas, the Asia Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Safety and Industrial, Transportation and Electronics, and Consumer. The Safety and Industrial segment offers industrial abrasives and finishing for metalworking applications; autobody repair solutions; industrial specialty products, such as personal hygiene products, masking, and packaging materials; electrical products and materials for construction and maintenance, power distribution, and electrical original equipment manufacturers; structural adhesives and tapes; respiratory, hearing, eye, and fall protection solutions; and natural and color-coated mineral granules for shingles. The Transportation and Electronics segment provides ceramic solutions; attachment/bonding, films, sound, and temperature management for transportation vehicles; format graphic films for advertising and fleet signage; reflective signage for highway and vehicle safety; light management films and electronics assembly solutions; chip packaging and interconnection solutions; semiconductor production materials; and data center solutions. The Consumer segment offers cleaning products for the home; consumer air quality products; picture hanging accessories; retail abrasives, paint accessories, and safety products; stationery and office products; automotive appearance products; and consumer bandages, tapes, braces, and supports. The company offers its products through e-commerce and traditional wholesalers, retailers, jobbers, distributors, and dealers, as well as directly to users. 3M Company was founded in 1902 and is headquartered in Saint Paul, Minnesota.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MMM",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "148.62",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of MMM.",
            "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "EG",
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "Will EG's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/EG for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
            "background": "Everest Group, Ltd., through its subsidiaries, provides reinsurance and insurance products in the United States, Europe, and internationally. The company operates through two segment, Insurance and Reinsurance. The Reinsurance segment writes property and casualty reinsurance; and specialty lines of business through reinsurance brokers, as well as directly with ceding companies in the United States, Bermuda, Ireland, Canada, Singapore, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom. The Insurance Operations segment writes property and casualty insurance directly, as well as through brokers, surplus lines, and general agents in the United States, Bermuda, Canada, Europe, South America, Singapore, France, Germany, Spain, Canada, Chile, the United Kingdom, Ireland, and the Netherlands. The company also provides treaty and facultative reinsurance products; admitted and non-admitted insurance products; and accident and health, specialty underwriters, eversports and entertainment, and surety and credit, marine and aviation, as well as structured and property hybrid solutions. In addition, it offers commercial property and casualty insurance products through wholesale and retail brokers, surplus lines brokers, and program administrators. The company was formerly known as Everest Re Group, Ltd. and changed its name to Everest Group, Ltd. in July 2023.Everest Group, Ltd., was founded in 1973 and is headquartered in Hamilton, Bermuda.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/EG",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "332.69",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of EG.",
            "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "RL",
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "Will RL's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RL for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
            "background": "Ralph Lauren Corporation designs, markets, and distributes lifestyle products in North America, Europe, Asia, and internationally. The company offers apparel, including a range of men's, women's, and children's clothing; footwear and accessories, which comprise casual shoes, dress shoes, boots, sneakers, sandals, eyewear, watches, fashion and fine jewelry, scarves, hats, gloves, and umbrellas, as well as leather goods, such as handbags, luggage, small leather goods, and belts; home products consisting of bed and bath lines, furniture, fabric and wallcoverings, floor coverings, lighting, tabletop, kitchen linens, floor coverings, dining, decorative accessories, and giftware; and fragrances. It sells apparel and accessories under the Ralph Lauren Collection, Ralph Lauren Purple Label, Polo Ralph Lauren, Double RL, Lauren Ralph Lauren, Polo Golf Ralph Lauren, Ralph Lauren Golf, RLX Ralph Lauren, Polo Ralph Lauren Children, and Chaps brands; women's fragrances under the Ralph Lauren Collection, Woman by Ralph Lauren, Romance Collection, and Ralph Collection brand names; and men's fragrances under the Ralph's Club, Purple Label, Polo Blue, Polo Red, Polo Green, Polo Black, Polo 67, Safari, Polo Sport, and Big Pony Men's brand names. The company's restaurant collection includes The Polo Bar in New York City; RL Restaurant in Chicago; Ralph's in Paris; The Bar at Ralph Lauren located in Milan; Ralph's Bar located in Chengdu, China; and Ralph's Coffee concept. It sells its products to department stores, specialty stores, and golf and pro shops, as well as directly to consumers through its retail stores, concession-based shop-within-shops, and its digital commerce sites. The company directly operates retail stores and concession-based shop-within-shops; and operates Ralph Lauren stores and stores and shops through licensing partners. Ralph Lauren Corporation was founded in 1967 and is headquartered in New York, New York.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RL",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "282.63",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of RL.",
            "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "SMCI",
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "Will SMCI's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SMCI for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
            "background": "Super Micro Computer, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops and manufactures high performance server and storage solutions based on modular and open architecture in the United States, Europe, Asia, and internationally. Its solutions range from complete server, storage systems, modular blade servers, blades, workstations, full racks, networking devices, server sub-systems, server management software, and security software. The company provides application-optimized server solutions, rackmount and blade servers, storage, and subsystems and accessories; and server software management solutions, such as Server Management Suite, including Supermicro Server Manager, Supermicro Power Management software, Supermicro Update Manager, SuperCloud Composer, and SuperDoctor 5. In addition, it offers server subsystems and accessories comprising server boards, chassis, power supplies, and other accessories. Further, the company provides server and storage system integration, configuration, and software upgrade and update services; and technical documentation services, as well as identifies service requirements, creates and executes project plans, and conducts verification testing and technical documentation, and training services. Additionally, it offers help desk and on-site product support services for its server and storage systems; and customer support services, including ongoing maintenance and technical support for its products. The company provides its products to enterprise data centers, cloud computing, artificial intelligence, and 5G and edge computing markets. It sells its products through direct and indirect sales force, distributors, value-added resellers, system integrators, and original equipment manufacturers. The company was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SMCI",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "47.91",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of SMCI.",
            "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "XOM",
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "Will XOM's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XOM for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
            "background": "Exxon Mobil Corporation engages in the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas in the United States and internationally. It operates through Upstream, Energy Products, Chemical Products, and Specialty Products segments. The Upstream segment explores for and produces crude oil and natural gas. The Energy Products segment offers fuels, aromatics, and catalysts, as well as licensing services. It sells its products under the Exxon, Esso, and Mobil brands. The Chemical Products segment manufactures and markets petrochemicals including olefins, polyolefins, and intermediates. The Specialty Products segment offers performance products, including lubricants, basestocks, waxes, synthetics, elastomers, and resins. The company also involves in the manufacturing, trade, transport, and sale of crude oil, natural gas, petroleum products, petrochemicals, and other specialty products; and pursuit lower-emission business opportunities, including carbon capture and storage, hydrogen, lower-emission fuels, and lithium. Exxon Mobil Corporation was founded in 1870 and is based in Spring, Texas.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XOM",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "108.24",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of XOM.",
            "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "CRWD",
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "Will CRWD's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CRWD for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
            "background": "CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. provides cybersecurity solutions in the United States and internationally. Its unified platform offers cloud-delivered protection of endpoints, cloud workloads, identity, and data. The company offers corporate endpoint and cloud workload security, managed security, security and vulnerability management, IT operations management, identity protection, SIEM and log management, threat intelligence, data protection, security orchestration, automation and response and AI powered workflow automation, and securing generative AI workload services. It primarily sells subscriptions to its Falcon platform and cloud modules. The company was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in Austin, Texas.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CRWD",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "451.74",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of CRWD.",
            "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "NXPI",
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "Will NXPI's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NXPI for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
            "background": "NXP Semiconductors N.V. offers various semiconductor products. The company's product portfolio includes microcontrollers; application processors, including i.MX application processors, and i.MX 8 and 9 family of applications processors; communication processors; wireless connectivity solutions, such as near field communications, ultra-wideband, Bluetooth low-energy, Zigbee, and Wi-Fi and Wi-Fi/Bluetooth integrated SoCs; analog and interface devices; radio frequency power amplifiers; and security controllers, as well as semiconductor-based environmental and inertial sensors, including pressure, inertial, magnetic, and gyroscopic sensors. Its products are used in various applications, including automotive, industrial and Internet of Things, mobile, and communication infrastructure. The company markets its products to various original equipment manufacturers, contract manufacturers, and distributors. It operates in China, the Netherlands, the United States, Singapore, Germany, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and internationally. N.V. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Eindhoven, the Netherlands.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NXPI",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "224.14",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of NXPI.",
            "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "LUV",
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "Will LUV's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LUV for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
            "background": "Southwest Airlines Co. operates as a passenger airline company that provides scheduled air transportation services in the United States and near-international markets. As of December 31, 2024, the company operated a total fleet of 803 Boeing 737 aircraft; and served 117 destinations in 42 states, the District of Columbia, and the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, as well as ten near-international countries, including Mexico, Jamaica, the Bahamas, Aruba, the Dominican Republic, Costa Rica, Belize, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Turks and Caicos. It also provides inflight entertainment and connectivity services; and Rapid Rewards loyalty program that enables program members to earn points for dollars spent on Southwest base fares. In addition, the company offers a suite of digital platforms to support customers' travel needs, including websites and apps; and SWABIZ, an online booking tool. Further, it provides ancillary services, such as Southwest's EarlyBird Check-In, upgraded boarding, and transportation of pets and unaccompanied minors. Southwest Airlines Co. was incorporated in 1967 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LUV",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "30.28",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of LUV.",
            "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "MHK",
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "Will MHK's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MHK for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
            "background": "Mohawk Industries, Inc. designs, manufactures, sources, distributes, and markets flooring products for residential and commercial remodeling, and new construction channels in the United States, Europe, Latin America, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Global Ceramic, Flooring North America, and Flooring Rest of the World. The company provides ceramic, porcelain, and natural stone tiles products for floor and wall applications; natural stones, porcelain slabs, and quartz countertops, as well as installation materials; floor covering products comprising broadloom carpets, carpet tiles, rugs and mats, carpet pads, laminates, medium-density fiberboards, wood floorings, luxury vinyl tiles, and sheet vinyl; and roofing panels, insulation boards, mezzanine flooring products, medium-density fiberboard, and chipboards. It also licenses its intellectual property to flooring manufacturers. The company sells its products under the American Olean, Daltile, Decortiles, Eliane, EmilGroup, KAI, Kerama Marazzi, Marazzi, Ragno, Aladdin Commercial, Durkan, Foss, IVC, Karastan, Mohawk, Mohawk Group, Mohawk Home, Pergo, Portico, Quick-Step, Feltex, GH Commercial, Godfrey Hirst, Hycraft, IVC Commercial, IVC Home, Lentex, Leoline, and Moduleo, Redbook, Unilin, and Vitromex brands. It offers its products to company-owned service centers and stores, company-operated distributors, floor covering retailers, wholesalers, mass merchandisers, department stores, shop at home, buying groups, ceramic tile specialists, e-commerce retailers, residential builders, independent distributors, commercial contractors, and commercial end users. The company was incorporated in 1988 and is headquartered in Calhoun, Georgia.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MHK",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "121.01",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of MHK.",
            "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "IP",
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "Will IP's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IP for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
            "background": "International Paper Company produces and sells renewable fiber-based packaging and pulp products in North America, Latin America, Europe, and North Africa. It operates through two segments, Industrial Packaging and Global Cellulose Fibers. The company offers linerboard, medium, whitetop, recycled linerboard, recycled medium and saturating kraft; and pulp for a range of applications, such as diapers, towel and tissue products, feminine care, incontinence, and other personal care products, as well as specialty pulps for use in textiles, construction materials, paints, coatings, and others. It sells its products directly to end users and converters, as well as through agents, resellers, and distributors. The company was founded in 1898 and is headquartered in Memphis, Tennessee.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IP",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "56.12",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of IP.",
            "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "V",
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "Will V's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/V for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
            "background": "Visa Inc. operates as a payment technology company in the United States and internationally. The company operates VisaNet, a transaction processing network that enables authorization, clearing, and settlement of payment transactions. It also offers credit, debit, and prepaid card products; tap to pay, tokenization, and click to pay services; Visa Direct, a solution that facilitates the delivery of funds to eligible cards, bank accounts, and digital wallets; Visa B2B Connect, a multilateral business-to-business cross-border payments network; Visa Cross-Border Solution, a cross-border consumer payments solution; and Visa DPS that provides a range of value-added services, including fraud mitigation, dispute management, data analytics, campaign management, a suite of digital solutions, and contact center services. The company also provides acceptance solutions, which include Cybersource and Authorize.net that provides new and enhanced payment integrations with ecommerce platforms, enabling sellers and acquirers to offer tailored commerce experiences; risk and identity solutions, such as Visa Advanced Authorization, Visa Secure, Visa Consumer Authentication Service, Visa Protect Authentication Intelligence, and Visa Provisioning Intelligence; and Visa Consulting and Analytics, a payment consulting advisory services. It provides its services under the Visa, Visa Electron, Interlink, V PAY, and PLUS brands. The company serves merchants, financial institutions, and government entities. Visa Inc. was founded in 1958 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/V",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "353.81",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of V.",
            "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "AEE",
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "Will AEE's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AEE for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
            "background": "Ameren Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a public utility holding company in the United States. The company operates through four segments: Ameren Missouri, Ameren Illinois Electric Distribution, Ameren Illinois Natural Gas, and Ameren Transmission. It engages in the rate-regulated electric generation, transmission, and distribution activities; and rate-regulated natural gas distribution business. In addition, the company generates electricity through coal, nuclear, and natural gas, as well as renewable sources, such as hydroelectric, wind, methane gas, and solar. It serves residential, commercial, and industrial customers. The company was founded in 1881 and is headquartered in Saint Louis, Missouri.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AEE",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "98.07",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of AEE.",
            "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "FTNT",
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "Will FTNT's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FTNT for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
            "background": "Fortinet, Inc. provides cybersecurity and convergence of networking and security solutions worldwide. It offers secure networking solutions focus on the convergence of networking and security; network firewall solutions that consist of FortiGate data centers, hyperscale, and distributed firewalls, as well as encrypted applications; wireless LAN solutions; and secure connectivity solutions, including FortiSwitch secure ethernet switches, FortiAP wireless local area network access points, FortiExtender 5G connectivity gateways, and other products. The company also provides the Fortinet Unified SASE solutions that include firewall, SD-WAN, Secure web gateway, cloud access services broker, data loss prevention, zero trust network access, and cloud security, including web application firewalls, virtualized firewalls, and cloud-native firewalls. In addition, it offers security operations solutions comprising FortiAI generative AI assistant, FortiSIEM security information and event management, FortiSOAR security orchestration, automation and response, FortiEDR endpoint detection and response, FortiXDR extended detection and response, FortiMDR managed detection and response service, FortiNDR network detection and response, FortiRecon digital risk protection, FortiDeceptor deception technology, FortiGuard SoCaaS, FortiSandbox sandboxing, FortiGuard incident response, and other products. Further, the company offers FortiGuard security services consisting of FortiGuard application security, content security, device security, NOC/SOC security, and web security services; FortiCare technical support services; and training services to customers and channel partners, as well as operates a FortiGuard Lab, a cybersecurity threat intelligence and research organization. It serves enterprise, communication and security service providers, government organizations, and small and medium-sized businesses. The company was incorporated in 2000 and is headquartered in Sunnyvale, California.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FTNT",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "111.64",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of FTNT.",
            "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "HBAN",
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "Will HBAN's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HBAN for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
            "background": "Huntington Bancshares Incorporated operates as the bank holding company for The Huntington National Bank that provides commercial, consumer, and mortgage banking services in the United States. The company offers financial products and services to consumer and business customers, including deposits, lending, payments, mortgage banking, dealer financing, investment management, trust, brokerage, insurance, and other financial products and services. It also provides 24-hour grace, asterisk-free checking, money scout, $50 safety zone, standby cash, early pay, instant access, savings goal getter, and Huntington heads up; digitally powered consumer and business financial solutions to consumer lending, regional banking, branch banking, and wealth management customers; direct and indirect consumer loans, as well as dealer finance loans and deposits; and private banking, wealth management and legacy planning through investment and portfolio management, fiduciary administration and trust, institutional custody, and full-service retail brokerage investment services. The company offers equipment financing, asset-based lending, distribution finance, structured lending, and municipal financing solutions, as well as Huntington ChoicePay. In addition, it offers lending, liquidity, treasury management and other payment services, and capital markets; government and non-profits, healthcare, technology and telecommunications, franchises, financial sponsors, and global services; and corporate risk management, institutional sales and trading, debt and equity issuance, and additional advisory services. The company offers its products through a network of channels, including branches and ATMs, online and mobile banking, and through customer call centers to customers in middle market banking, corporate, specialty, and government banking, asset finance, commercial real estate banking, and capital markets. The company was founded in 1866 and is headquartered in Columbus, Ohio.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HBAN",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "16.73",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of HBAN.",
            "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "T",
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "Will T's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/T for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
            "background": "AT&T Inc. provides telecommunications and technology services worldwide. The company operates through two segments, Communications and Latin America. The Communications segment offers wireless voice and data communications services; and sells handsets, wireless data cards, wireless computing devices, carrying cases/protective covers, and wireless chargers through its own company-owned stores, agents, and third-party retail stores. It also provides AT&T Dedicated Internet, fiber ethernet and broadband, fixed wireless, and hosted and managed professional services; and copper-based voice and data, Virtual Private Networks (VPN), wholesale, outsourcing, and IP, as well as customer premises equipment for multinational corporations, small and mid-sized businesses, governmental, and wholesale customers. In addition, this segment offers broadband services, including fiber connections, legacy telephony voice communication services, and other VoIP services and equipment to residential customers. This segment markets its communications services and products under the AT&T, AT&T Business, Cricket, AT&T PREPAID, AT&T Fiber, and AT&T Internet Air brand names. The Latin America segment provides postpaid and prepaid wireless services in Mexico under the AT&T and Unefon brand names, as well as sells smartphones through its stores, agents and third-party retail stores. The company was formerly known as SBC Communications Inc. and changed its name to AT&T Inc. in 2005. AT&T Inc. was incorporated in 1983 and is based in Dallas, Texas.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/T",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "25.87",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of T.",
            "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "DOC",
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "Will DOC's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DOC for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
            "background": "Healthpeak Properties, Inc. is a fully integrated real estate investment trust (REIT) and S&P 500 company. Healthpeak owns, operates, and develops high-quality real estate focused on healthcare discovery and delivery.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DOC",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "19.59",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of DOC.",
            "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "HAS",
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "Will HAS's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HAS for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
            "background": "Hasbro, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a toy and game company in the United States, Europe, Canada, Mexico, Latin America, Australia, China, and Hong Kong. The company operates through Consumer Products; Wizards of the Coast and Digital Gaming; Entertainment; and Corporate and Other segments. The Consumer Products segment engages in the sourcing, marketing, and sale of toy and game products. This segment also promotes its brands through the out-licensing of trademarks, characters, and other brand and intellectual property rights to third parties through the sale of branded consumer products, such as toys and apparel. Its toys and games include action figures, arts and crafts and creative play products, dolls, play sets, preschool toys, plush products, sports action blasters and accessories, vehicles and toy-related specialty products, games, and other consumer products; and licensed products, such as apparel, publishing products, home goods and electronics, and toy products. The Wizards of the Coast and Digital Gaming segment engages in the promotion of its brands through the development of trading cards, role-playing, and digital game experiences based on Hasbro and Wizards of the Coast games. The Entertainment segment engages in the development, production, and sale of entertainment content, including film, television, children's programming, digital content, and live entertainment. The company sells its products to retailers, distributors, wholesalers, discount stores, specialty hobby stores, drug stores, mail order houses, catalog stores, department stores, and other traditional retailers, as well as e-commerce retailers; and directly to customers through its e-commerce websites under the MAGIC: THE GATHERING, Hasbro Gaming, PLAY-DOH, NERF, TRANSFORMERS, DUNGEONS & DRAGONS, PEPPA PIG, and other brand names. Hasbro, Inc. was founded in 1923 and is headquartered in Pawtucket, Rhode Island.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HAS",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "60.82",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of HAS.",
            "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "SYK",
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "Will SYK's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SYK for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
            "background": "Stryker Corporation operates as a medical technology company. It operates through two segments, MedSurg and Neurotechnology, and Orthopaedics. The MedSurg and Neurotechnology segment offers surgical equipment, and surgical navigation systems, endoscopic and communications systems, patient handling, emergency medical equipment and intensive care disposable products, clinical communication and  artificial intelligence-assisted virtual care platform technology, minimally invasive products for the treatment of acute ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke, cranial, and maxillofacial and chest wall devices, as well as dural substitutes and sealants; traditional brain and open skull based surgical procedures products; and orthobiologic and biosurgery products, including synthetic bone grafts and vertebral augmentation products. The Orthopaedics segment provides implants for use in total joint replacements, such as hip, knee and shoulder, and trauma and extremities surgeries; thoracolumbar systems that include fixation, minimally invasive and interbody systems used in spinal injury, complex spine and degenerative therapies. The company sells its products to doctors, hospitals, and other healthcare facilities through company-owned subsidiaries and branches, as well as third-party dealers and distributors in approximately 75 countries. Stryker Corporation was founded in 1941 and is headquartered in Portage, Michigan.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SYK",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "385.18",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of SYK.",
            "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "PNR",
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "Will PNR's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PNR for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
            "background": "Pentair plc provides various water solutions in the United States, Western Europe, China, Eastern Europe, Latin America, the Middle East, Southeast Asia, Australia, Canada, and Japan. The company operates through three segments: Flow, Water Solutions, and Pool. The Flow segment designs, manufactures, and sells fluid treatment and pump products and systems, including pressure vessels, gas recovery solutions, membrane bioreactors, wastewater reuse systems and advanced membrane filtration, separation systems, water disposal pumps, water supply pumps, fluid transfer pumps, turbine pumps, solid handling pumps, and agricultural spray nozzles for fluid delivery, ion exchange, desalination, food and beverage, separation technologies in the oil and gas industry, residential and municipal wells, water treatment, wastewater solids handling, pressure boosting, circulation and transfer, fire suppression, flood control, agricultural irrigation, and crop spray in residential, commercial, and industrial markets. The Water Solutions segment provides commercial and residential water treatment products and systems, including pressure tanks, control valves, activated carbon products, commercial ice machines, conventional filtration products, and point-of-entry and point-of-use water treatment systems, as well as installation and preventative services for use in residential whole home water filtration, drinking water filtration, and water softening solutions, as well as commercial total water management and filtration in foodservice operations. The Pool segment provides residential and commercial pool equipment and accessories comprising pumps, filters, heaters, lights, automatic controls, automatic cleaners, maintenance equipment, and pool accessories for applications in residential and commercial pool maintenance, pool repair, renovation, service, and construction and aquaculture solutions. Pentair plc was founded in 1966 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PNR",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "96.73",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of PNR.",
            "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "CCI",
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "Will CCI's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CCI for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
            "background": "Crown Castle owns, operates and leases more than 40,000 cell towers and approximately 90,000 route miles of fiber supporting small cells and fiber solutions across every major U.S. market. This nationwide portfolio of communications infrastructure connects cities and communities to essential data, technology and wireless service - bringing information, ideas and innovations to the people and businesses that need them.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CCI",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "87.96",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of CCI.",
            "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": "ACGL",
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "Will ACGL's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
            "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ACGL for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
            "background": "Arch Capital Group Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance, reinsurance, and mortgage insurance products worldwide. The company's Insurance segment offers primary and excess casualty coverages; loss sensitive primary casualty insurance programs; directors' and officers' liability, errors and omissions liability, employment practices and fiduciary liability, crime, professional indemnity, and other financial related coverages; medical professional and general liability insurance coverages; and workers' compensation and umbrella liability, as well as commercial automobile and inland marine products. It also provides property, energy, marine, and aviation insurance; travel insurance; accident, disability, and medical plan insurance coverages; captive insurance programs; employer's liability; contract and commercial surety coverages; and collateral protection, debt cancellation, and service contract reimbursement products. This segment markets its products through a group of licensed independent retail and wholesale brokers. Its Reinsurance segment provides casualty reinsurance for third party liability exposures; marine and aviation; motor reinsurance, whole account multi-line treaties, cyber, trade credit, surety, accident and health, workers' compensation catastrophe, agriculture, trade credit, and political risk products; reinsurance protection for catastrophic losses, and personal lines and commercial property exposures; life reinsurance; casualty clash; and risk management solutions. This segment markets its reinsurance products through brokers. The company's Mortgage segment offers direct mortgage insurance and mortgage reinsurance. The company was founded in 1995 and is based in Pembroke, Bermuda.",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ACGL",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "88.2",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of ACGL.",
            "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
            "combination_of": "N/A",
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "MCHP",
                "CRWD"
            ],
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "MCHP",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will MCHP's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MCHP for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Microchip Technology Incorporated engages in the development, manufacture, and sale of smart, connected, and secure embedded control solutions in the Americas, Europe, and Asia. The company offers general purpose 8-bit, 16-bit, and 32-bit mixed-signal microcontrollers; 32-bit embedded mixed-signal microprocessors; and specialized microcontrollers for automotive, industrial, computing, communications, lighting, power supplies, motor control, human machine interface, security, wired connectivity, and wireless connectivity applications. It also provides analog, interface, mixed signal, and timing products comprising power management, linear, mixed-signal, high-voltage, thermal management, discrete diodes, and metal oxide semiconductor field effect transistors (MOSFETS), radio frequency (RF), drivers, safety, security, timing, USB, Ethernet, wireless, and other interface products; field-programmable gate array (FPGA) products; and application development tools that enable system designers to program microcontroller, FPGA, and microprocessor products for specific applications. In addition, the company offers serial electrically erasable programmable read-only memory, serial flash memories, parallel flash memories, serial static random access memories, and serial electrically erasable random access memories for the production of very small footprint devices; and licenses its SuperFlash embedded flash and non-volatile memory technologies to foundries, integrated device manufacturers, and design partners for use in the manufacture of microcontroller products, gate array, RF, analog, and neuromorphic compute products that require embedded non-volatile memory, as well as provides engineering services. Further, it offers wafer foundry and assembly, and test subcontracting manufacturing services; and timing systems products, application specific integrated circuits, and aerospace products. The company was incorporated in 1989 and is headquartered in Chandler, Arizona.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MCHP",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "55.76",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of MCHP.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "CRWD",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will CRWD's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CRWD for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. provides cybersecurity solutions in the United States and internationally. Its unified platform offers cloud-delivered protection of endpoints, cloud workloads, identity, and data. The company offers corporate endpoint and cloud workload security, managed security, security and vulnerability management, IT operations management, identity protection, SIEM and log management, threat intelligence, data protection, security orchestration, automation and response and AI powered workflow automation, and securing generative AI workload services. It primarily sells subscriptions to its Falcon platform and cloud modules. The company was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in Austin, Texas.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CRWD",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "451.74",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of CRWD.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "RJF",
                "MDLZ"
            ],
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "RJF",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will RJF's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RJF for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Raymond James Financial, Inc., a diversified financial services company, provides private client group, capital markets, asset management, banking, and other services to individuals, corporations, and municipalities in the United States, Canada, and Europe. The Private Client Group segment offers investment services, portfolio management services, insurance and annuity products, and mutual funds; support to third-party mutual fund and annuity companies, including sales and marketing support, as well as distribution and accounting, and administrative services; margin loans; securities borrowing and lending services; diversification strategies and alternative investment products; and custodial, trade execution, research, and other support and services. The Capital Markets segment provides investment banking services, such as equity and debt underwriting, and merger and acquisition advisory services; and fixed income and equity brokerage services. This segment also offers institutional sales, securities trading, equity research, and the syndication and management of investments in low-income housing funds and funds of a similar nature. The Asset Management segment provides asset management, portfolio management, and related administrative services to retail and institutional clients; and administrative support services, such as record-keeping. The Bank segment offers various types of loans, including securities-based, commercial and industrial, commercial real estate and construction, real estate investment trust, residential mortgage, and tax-exempt loans; insured deposit accounts; retail and corporate deposit; and liquidity management products and services. The Other segment engages in the private equity investments comprising invests in third-party funds. Raymond James Financial, Inc. was founded in 1962 and is headquartered in Saint Petersburg, Florida.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RJF",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "159.84",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of RJF.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "MDLZ",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will MDLZ's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MDLZ for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Mondelez International, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures, markets, and sells snack food and beverage products in the Latin America, North America, Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Europe. It provides biscuits and baked snacks, including cookies, crackers, salted snacks, snack bars, and cakes and pastries; chocolates; and gums and candies, as well as various cheese and grocery, and powdered beverage products. The company's brand portfolio includes Oreo, Ritz, LU, CLIF Bar, and Tate's Bake Shop biscuits and baked snacks, as well as Cadbury Dairy Milk, Milka, and Toblerone chocolate. It serves to supermarket chains, wholesalers, supercenters, club stores, mass merchandisers, distributors, convenience stores, gasoline stations, drug stores, value stores, and other retail food outlets through direct store delivery, company-owned and satellite warehouses, distribution centers, third party distributors, and other facilities, as well as through independent sales offices and agents. The company also sells products directly to businesses and consumers through e-retail platforms, retailer digital platforms, as well as through its direct-to-consumer websites and social media platforms. Mondelez International, Inc. was formerly known as Kraft Foods Inc. and changed its name to Mondelez International, Inc. in October 2012. The company was incorporated in 2000 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MDLZ",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "60.82",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of MDLZ.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "DUK",
                "FTNT"
            ],
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "DUK",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will DUK's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DUK for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Duke Energy Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an energy company in the United States. It operates through two segments: Electric Utilities and Infrastructure (EU&I), and Gas Utilities and Infrastructure (GU&I). The EU&I segment generates, transmits, distributes, and sells electricity in the Carolinas, Florida, and the Midwest. It generates electricity through coal, hydroelectric, natural gas, oil, solar and wind sources, renewables, and nuclear fuel. This segment also engages in the wholesale of electricity to municipalities, electric cooperative utilities, and load-serving entities. The GU&I segment distributes natural gas to residential, commercial, industrial, and power generation natural gas customers; and invests in pipeline transmission projects, renewable natural gas projects, and natural gas storage facilities. The company was formerly known as Duke Energy Holding Corp. and changed its name to Duke Energy Corporation in April 2006. Duke Energy Corporation was founded in 1904 and is headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DUK",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "111.6",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of DUK.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "FTNT",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will FTNT's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FTNT for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Fortinet, Inc. provides cybersecurity and convergence of networking and security solutions worldwide. It offers secure networking solutions focus on the convergence of networking and security; network firewall solutions that consist of FortiGate data centers, hyperscale, and distributed firewalls, as well as encrypted applications; wireless LAN solutions; and secure connectivity solutions, including FortiSwitch secure ethernet switches, FortiAP wireless local area network access points, FortiExtender 5G connectivity gateways, and other products. The company also provides the Fortinet Unified SASE solutions that include firewall, SD-WAN, Secure web gateway, cloud access services broker, data loss prevention, zero trust network access, and cloud security, including web application firewalls, virtualized firewalls, and cloud-native firewalls. In addition, it offers security operations solutions comprising FortiAI generative AI assistant, FortiSIEM security information and event management, FortiSOAR security orchestration, automation and response, FortiEDR endpoint detection and response, FortiXDR extended detection and response, FortiMDR managed detection and response service, FortiNDR network detection and response, FortiRecon digital risk protection, FortiDeceptor deception technology, FortiGuard SoCaaS, FortiSandbox sandboxing, FortiGuard incident response, and other products. Further, the company offers FortiGuard security services consisting of FortiGuard application security, content security, device security, NOC/SOC security, and web security services; FortiCare technical support services; and training services to customers and channel partners, as well as operates a FortiGuard Lab, a cybersecurity threat intelligence and research organization. It serves enterprise, communication and security service providers, government organizations, and small and medium-sized businesses. The company was incorporated in 2000 and is headquartered in Sunnyvale, California.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FTNT",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "111.64",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of FTNT.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "MPC",
                "FOX"
            ],
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "MPC",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will MPC's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MPC for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Marathon Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated downstream energy company primarily in the United States. The company operates through Refining & Marketing, and Midstream segments. The Refining & Marketing segment refines crude oil and other feedstocks at its refineries in the Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and West Coast regions of the United States; and purchases refined products and ethanol for resale and distributes refined products, including renewable diesel, through transportation, storage, distribution, and marketing services. Its refined products include transportation fuels, such as reformulated gasolines and blend-grade gasolines; heavy fuel oil; and asphalt. This segment also manufactures propane and petrochemicals. It sells refined products to wholesale marketing customers in the United States and internationally, buyers on the spot market, and independent entrepreneurs who operate primarily Marathon branded outlets, as well as through long-term fuel supply contracts to direct dealer locations primarily under the ARCO brand. The Midstream segment transports, stores, distributes, and markets crude oil and refined products through refining logistics assets, pipelines, terminals, towboats, and barges; gathers, processes, and transports natural gas; and gathers, transports, fractionates, stores, and markets natural gas liquids. Marathon Petroleum Corporation was founded in 1887 and is headquartered in Findlay, Ohio.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MPC",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "156.06",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of MPC.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "FOX",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will FOX's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FOX for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Fox Corporation operates as a news, sports, and entertainment company in the United States (U.S.). The company operates through four segments: Cable Network Programming, Television, Credible, and The FOX Studio Lot. The Cable Network Programming segment produces and licenses news and sports content for distribution through traditional cable television systems, direct broadcast satellite operators and telecommunication companies, virtual multi-channel video programming distributors, and other digital platforms primarily in the U.S. Television segment produces, acquires, markets, and distributes programming through the FOX broadcast network, advertising supported video-on-demand service Tubi, and operates power broadcast television stations including duopolies and other digital platform; and produces content for third parties. The Credible segment engages in the consumer finance marketplace. The FOX Studio Lot segment provides television and film production services along with office space, studio operation services and includes all operations of the facility. The company was incorporated in 2018 and is headquartered in New York, New York.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FOX",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "52.39",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of FOX.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "COST",
                "BIO"
            ],
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "COST",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will COST's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/COST for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Costco Wholesale Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the operation of membership warehouses in the United States, Puerto Rico, Canada, Mexico, Japan, the United Kingdom, Korea, Australia, Taiwan, China, Spain, France, Iceland, New Zealand, and Sweden. The company offers branded and private-label products in a range of merchandise categories. It offers merchandise, such as sundries, dry groceries, candies, coolers, freezers, deli, liquor, and tobacco; appliances, electronics, health and beauty aids, hardware, lawn and garden, sporting goods, tires, toys and seasonal products, office supplies, automotive care products, postages, tickets, apparel, small appliances, furniture, domestics, housewares, special order kiosks, and jewelry; and meat, produce, service deli, and bakery products. The company also operates gasoline, pharmacies, optical, food courts, hearing-aid centers, and tire installation centers; and offers business delivery, travel, grocery, and various other services online. It also operates e-commerce websites. The company was formerly known as Costco Companies, Inc. and changed its name to Costco Wholesale Corporation in August 1999. Costco Wholesale Corporation was founded in 1976 and is based in Issaquah, Washington.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/COST",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "1071.85",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of COST.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "BIO",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will BIO's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BIO for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Bio-Rad Laboratories, Inc. manufactures and distributes life science research and clinical diagnostic products in the United States, Europe, Asia, Canada, and Latin America. It operates through two segments, Life Science and Clinical Diagnostics. The company develops, manufactures, and markets instruments, systems, reagents, and consumables to separate, purify, characterize, and quantitate biological materials such as cells, proteins, and nucleic acids for proteomics, genomics, biopharmaceutical production, cellular biology, and food safety markets. It also designs, manufactures, markets, and supports test systems, informatics systems, test kits, and specialized quality controls for hospitals, diagnostic reference, transfusion, and physician office laboratories. The company offers its products through its direct sales force, as well as through distributors, agents, brokers, and resellers. Bio-Rad Laboratories, Inc. was founded in 1952 and is headquartered in Hercules, California.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BIO",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "277.16",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of BIO.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "RL",
                "CRWD"
            ],
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "RL",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will RL's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RL for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Ralph Lauren Corporation designs, markets, and distributes lifestyle products in North America, Europe, Asia, and internationally. The company offers apparel, including a range of men's, women's, and children's clothing; footwear and accessories, which comprise casual shoes, dress shoes, boots, sneakers, sandals, eyewear, watches, fashion and fine jewelry, scarves, hats, gloves, and umbrellas, as well as leather goods, such as handbags, luggage, small leather goods, and belts; home products consisting of bed and bath lines, furniture, fabric and wallcoverings, floor coverings, lighting, tabletop, kitchen linens, floor coverings, dining, decorative accessories, and giftware; and fragrances. It sells apparel and accessories under the Ralph Lauren Collection, Ralph Lauren Purple Label, Polo Ralph Lauren, Double RL, Lauren Ralph Lauren, Polo Golf Ralph Lauren, Ralph Lauren Golf, RLX Ralph Lauren, Polo Ralph Lauren Children, and Chaps brands; women's fragrances under the Ralph Lauren Collection, Woman by Ralph Lauren, Romance Collection, and Ralph Collection brand names; and men's fragrances under the Ralph's Club, Purple Label, Polo Blue, Polo Red, Polo Green, Polo Black, Polo 67, Safari, Polo Sport, and Big Pony Men's brand names. The company's restaurant collection includes The Polo Bar in New York City; RL Restaurant in Chicago; Ralph's in Paris; The Bar at Ralph Lauren located in Milan; Ralph's Bar located in Chengdu, China; and Ralph's Coffee concept. It sells its products to department stores, specialty stores, and golf and pro shops, as well as directly to consumers through its retail stores, concession-based shop-within-shops, and its digital commerce sites. The company directly operates retail stores and concession-based shop-within-shops; and operates Ralph Lauren stores and stores and shops through licensing partners. Ralph Lauren Corporation was founded in 1967 and is headquartered in New York, New York.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RL",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "282.63",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of RL.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "CRWD",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will CRWD's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CRWD for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. provides cybersecurity solutions in the United States and internationally. Its unified platform offers cloud-delivered protection of endpoints, cloud workloads, identity, and data. The company offers corporate endpoint and cloud workload security, managed security, security and vulnerability management, IT operations management, identity protection, SIEM and log management, threat intelligence, data protection, security orchestration, automation and response and AI powered workflow automation, and securing generative AI workload services. It primarily sells subscriptions to its Falcon platform and cloud modules. The company was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in Austin, Texas.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CRWD",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "451.74",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of CRWD.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "KLAC",
                "MCHP"
            ],
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "KLAC",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will KLAC's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/KLAC for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "KLA Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, manufacture, and marketing of process control, process-enabling, and yield management solutions for the semiconductor and related electronics industries worldwide. It operates through three segments: Semiconductor Process Control; Specialty Semiconductor Process; and PCB and Component Inspection. The company offers inspection and review tools to identify, locate, characterize, review, and analyze defects on various surfaces of patterned and unpatterned wafers; metrology systems that are used to measure pattern dimensions, film thickness, film stress, layer-to-layer alignment, pattern placement, surface topography, and electro-optical properties for wafers; chemical process control equipment; wired and wireless sensor wafers and reticles; wafer defect inspection, review, and metrology systems; reticle inspection and metrology systems; and semiconductor software solutions that provide run-time process control, defect excursion identification, process corrections, and defect classification to accelerate yield learning rates and reduce production risk. It also provides etch, plasma dicing, deposition, and other wafer processing technologies and solutions for the semiconductor and microelectronics industry. In addition, the company offers direct imaging, inspection, optical shaping, inkjet and additive printing, UV laser drilling, and computer-aided manufacturing and engineering solutions for the PCB market; inspection and electrical testing systems to identify and classify defects, as well as systems to repair defects for the display market; and inspection and metrology systems for quality control and yield improvement in advanced and traditional semiconductor packaging markets. The company was formerly known as KLA-Tencor Corporation and changed its name to KLA Corporation in July 2019. KLA Corporation was incorporated in 1975 and is headquartered in Milpitas, California.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/KLAC",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "750.74",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of KLAC.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "MCHP",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will MCHP's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MCHP for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Microchip Technology Incorporated engages in the development, manufacture, and sale of smart, connected, and secure embedded control solutions in the Americas, Europe, and Asia. The company offers general purpose 8-bit, 16-bit, and 32-bit mixed-signal microcontrollers; 32-bit embedded mixed-signal microprocessors; and specialized microcontrollers for automotive, industrial, computing, communications, lighting, power supplies, motor control, human machine interface, security, wired connectivity, and wireless connectivity applications. It also provides analog, interface, mixed signal, and timing products comprising power management, linear, mixed-signal, high-voltage, thermal management, discrete diodes, and metal oxide semiconductor field effect transistors (MOSFETS), radio frequency (RF), drivers, safety, security, timing, USB, Ethernet, wireless, and other interface products; field-programmable gate array (FPGA) products; and application development tools that enable system designers to program microcontroller, FPGA, and microprocessor products for specific applications. In addition, the company offers serial electrically erasable programmable read-only memory, serial flash memories, parallel flash memories, serial static random access memories, and serial electrically erasable random access memories for the production of very small footprint devices; and licenses its SuperFlash embedded flash and non-volatile memory technologies to foundries, integrated device manufacturers, and design partners for use in the manufacture of microcontroller products, gate array, RF, analog, and neuromorphic compute products that require embedded non-volatile memory, as well as provides engineering services. Further, it offers wafer foundry and assembly, and test subcontracting manufacturing services; and timing systems products, application specific integrated circuits, and aerospace products. The company was incorporated in 1989 and is headquartered in Chandler, Arizona.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MCHP",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "55.76",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of MCHP.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "AKAM",
                "SYK"
            ],
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "AKAM",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will AKAM's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AKAM for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Akamai Technologies, Inc. provides cloud computing, security, and content delivery services in the United States and internationally. The company offers cloud solutions to keep infrastructure, websites, applications, application programming interfaces, and users safe from various cyberattacks and online threats while enhancing performance. It also provides web and mobile performance solutions to enable dynamic websites and applications; media delivery solutions, including video streaming and video player services, game and software delivery, broadcast operations, authoritative domain name system, resolution, and data and analytics; and cloud computing services, such as compute, storage, networking, database, and container management services to build, deploy, and secure applications and workloads. In addition, the company offers content delivery solutions; and an array of service and support to assist customers with integrating, configuring, optimizing, and managing its offerings. It sells its solutions through various channel partners. Akamai Technologies, Inc. was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AKAM",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "100.01",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of AKAM.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "SYK",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will SYK's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SYK for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Stryker Corporation operates as a medical technology company. It operates through two segments, MedSurg and Neurotechnology, and Orthopaedics. The MedSurg and Neurotechnology segment offers surgical equipment, and surgical navigation systems, endoscopic and communications systems, patient handling, emergency medical equipment and intensive care disposable products, clinical communication and  artificial intelligence-assisted virtual care platform technology, minimally invasive products for the treatment of acute ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke, cranial, and maxillofacial and chest wall devices, as well as dural substitutes and sealants; traditional brain and open skull based surgical procedures products; and orthobiologic and biosurgery products, including synthetic bone grafts and vertebral augmentation products. The Orthopaedics segment provides implants for use in total joint replacements, such as hip, knee and shoulder, and trauma and extremities surgeries; thoracolumbar systems that include fixation, minimally invasive and interbody systems used in spinal injury, complex spine and degenerative therapies. The company sells its products to doctors, hospitals, and other healthcare facilities through company-owned subsidiaries and branches, as well as third-party dealers and distributors in approximately 75 countries. Stryker Corporation was founded in 1941 and is headquartered in Portage, Michigan.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SYK",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "385.18",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of SYK.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "AMAT",
                "HBAN"
            ],
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "AMAT",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will AMAT's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMAT for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Applied Materials, Inc. engages in the provision of manufacturing equipment, services, and software to the semiconductor, display, and related industries. The company operates through three segments: Semiconductor Systems, Applied Global Services, and Display. The Semiconductor Systems segment develops, manufactures, and sells semiconductor capital equipment that is used to fabricate semiconductor chips or integrated circuits. The Applied Global Services segment provides integrated solutions to optimize equipment and fab performance and productivity comprising spares, upgrades, services, and other equipment and factory automation software for semiconductor, display, and other products. The Display segment offers products for manufacturing liquid crystal displays; organic light-emitting diodes; and other display technologies for TVs, monitors, laptops, personal computers, smart phones, and other consumer-oriented devices and solar energy cells. It operates in the United States, China, Korea, Taiwan, Japan, Southeast Asia, Europe, and internationally. The company was incorporated in 1967 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, California.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMAT",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "169.2",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of AMAT.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "HBAN",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will HBAN's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HBAN for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Huntington Bancshares Incorporated operates as the bank holding company for The Huntington National Bank that provides commercial, consumer, and mortgage banking services in the United States. The company offers financial products and services to consumer and business customers, including deposits, lending, payments, mortgage banking, dealer financing, investment management, trust, brokerage, insurance, and other financial products and services. It also provides 24-hour grace, asterisk-free checking, money scout, $50 safety zone, standby cash, early pay, instant access, savings goal getter, and Huntington heads up; digitally powered consumer and business financial solutions to consumer lending, regional banking, branch banking, and wealth management customers; direct and indirect consumer loans, as well as dealer finance loans and deposits; and private banking, wealth management and legacy planning through investment and portfolio management, fiduciary administration and trust, institutional custody, and full-service retail brokerage investment services. The company offers equipment financing, asset-based lending, distribution finance, structured lending, and municipal financing solutions, as well as Huntington ChoicePay. In addition, it offers lending, liquidity, treasury management and other payment services, and capital markets; government and non-profits, healthcare, technology and telecommunications, franchises, financial sponsors, and global services; and corporate risk management, institutional sales and trading, debt and equity issuance, and additional advisory services. The company offers its products through a network of channels, including branches and ATMs, online and mobile banking, and through customer call centers to customers in middle market banking, corporate, specialty, and government banking, asset finance, commercial real estate banking, and capital markets. The company was founded in 1866 and is headquartered in Columbus, Ohio.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HBAN",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "16.73",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of HBAN.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "IR",
                "T"
            ],
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "IR",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will IR's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IR for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Ingersoll Rand Inc. provides various mission-critical air, gas, liquid, and solid flow creation technologies services and solutions worldwide. It operates through two segments, Industrial Technologies and Services, and Precision and Science Technologies. The Industrial Technologies and Services segment designs, manufactures, markets, and services air and gas compression, vacuum, and blower products; fluid transfer equipment and loading systems; and power tools and lifting equipment, including associated aftermarket parts, consumables, air treatment equipment, controls, other accessories, and services under the under the Ingersoll Rand, Gardner Denver, Nash, CompAir, Elmo Rietschle brands, etc. The Precision and Science Technologies segment designs, manufactures, and markets diaphragm, piston, water-powered, peristaltic, gear, vane, progressive cavity, and syringe pumps; and gas boosters, hydrogen compression systems, automated liquid handling systems, odorant injection systems, controls, software, and other related components and accessories for liquid and gas dosing, transfer, dispensing, compression, sampling, pressure management, and flow control in specialized or critical applications under the Air Dimensions, Albin, ARO, Dosatron, Haskel, Ingersoll Rand, LMI, Maximus, Milton Roy, MP, Oberdorfer, Seepex, Thomas, Welch, Williams, YZ, and Zinnser Analytic brand names. This segment's products are used in medical, life sciences, industrial manufacturing, water and wastewater, chemical processing, energy, food and beverage, agriculture, and other markets. It sells through an integrated network of direct sales representatives and independent distributors. The company was formerly known as Gardner Denver Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Ingersoll Rand Inc. in March 2020. Ingersoll Rand Inc. was founded in 1859 and is headquartered in Davidson, North Carolina.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IR",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "85.72",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of IR.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "T",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will T's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/T for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "AT&T Inc. provides telecommunications and technology services worldwide. The company operates through two segments, Communications and Latin America. The Communications segment offers wireless voice and data communications services; and sells handsets, wireless data cards, wireless computing devices, carrying cases/protective covers, and wireless chargers through its own company-owned stores, agents, and third-party retail stores. It also provides AT&T Dedicated Internet, fiber ethernet and broadband, fixed wireless, and hosted and managed professional services; and copper-based voice and data, Virtual Private Networks (VPN), wholesale, outsourcing, and IP, as well as customer premises equipment for multinational corporations, small and mid-sized businesses, governmental, and wholesale customers. In addition, this segment offers broadband services, including fiber connections, legacy telephony voice communication services, and other VoIP services and equipment to residential customers. This segment markets its communications services and products under the AT&T, AT&T Business, Cricket, AT&T PREPAID, AT&T Fiber, and AT&T Internet Air brand names. The Latin America segment provides postpaid and prepaid wireless services in Mexico under the AT&T and Unefon brand names, as well as sells smartphones through its stores, agents and third-party retail stores. The company was formerly known as SBC Communications Inc. and changed its name to AT&T Inc. in 2005. AT&T Inc. was incorporated in 1983 and is based in Dallas, Texas.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/T",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "25.87",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of T.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "CRM",
                "PNR"
            ],
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "CRM",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will CRM's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CRM for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Salesforce, Inc. provides Customer Relationship Management (CRM) technology that brings companies and customers together worldwide. The company's service includes sales to store data, monitor leads and progress, forecast opportunities, gain insights through analytics and artificial intelligence, and deliver quotes, contracts, and invoices; and service that enables companies to deliver trusted and highly personalized customer support at scale. In addition, its platform offering comprise a flexible platform that enables companies of various sizes, locations, and industries to build business workflow and apps with customer; online learning platform that allows anyone to learn in-demand Salesforce skills; and Slack, an intelligent productivity platform. The company's marketing services enables companies to plan, personalize, automate, and optimize customer marketing journey, connecting interaction, and connected products; and commerce services, which empowers shopping experience across various customer touchpoint, such as mobile, web, social, and stores and provides click-to-code tools that offers customers to build and deploy solutions. Further, its analytics offering includes Tableau, an end-to-end analytics solution for range of enterprise use cases and intelligent analytics with AI models, spot trends, predict outcomes, creates summaries, timely recommendations, and take action from any device; and integration service including MuleSoft, which provides building blocks to deliver end-to-end and connected experiences. Additionally, the company provides data cloud, a hyperscale data engine native to Salesforce; vertical services to meet the needs of customers in industries, such as financial services, healthcare and life sciences, manufacturing and automotive and government; and offers salesforce starter for small and medium-sized businesses. Salesforce, Inc. was incorporated in 1999 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CRM",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "326.54",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of CRM.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "PNR",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will PNR's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PNR for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Pentair plc provides various water solutions in the United States, Western Europe, China, Eastern Europe, Latin America, the Middle East, Southeast Asia, Australia, Canada, and Japan. The company operates through three segments: Flow, Water Solutions, and Pool. The Flow segment designs, manufactures, and sells fluid treatment and pump products and systems, including pressure vessels, gas recovery solutions, membrane bioreactors, wastewater reuse systems and advanced membrane filtration, separation systems, water disposal pumps, water supply pumps, fluid transfer pumps, turbine pumps, solid handling pumps, and agricultural spray nozzles for fluid delivery, ion exchange, desalination, food and beverage, separation technologies in the oil and gas industry, residential and municipal wells, water treatment, wastewater solids handling, pressure boosting, circulation and transfer, fire suppression, flood control, agricultural irrigation, and crop spray in residential, commercial, and industrial markets. The Water Solutions segment provides commercial and residential water treatment products and systems, including pressure tanks, control valves, activated carbon products, commercial ice machines, conventional filtration products, and point-of-entry and point-of-use water treatment systems, as well as installation and preventative services for use in residential whole home water filtration, drinking water filtration, and water softening solutions, as well as commercial total water management and filtration in foodservice operations. The Pool segment provides residential and commercial pool equipment and accessories comprising pumps, filters, heaters, lights, automatic controls, automatic cleaners, maintenance equipment, and pool accessories for applications in residential and commercial pool maintenance, pool repair, renovation, service, and construction and aquaculture solutions. Pentair plc was founded in 1966 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PNR",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "96.73",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of PNR.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "AKAM",
                "MMM"
            ],
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "AKAM",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will AKAM's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AKAM for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Akamai Technologies, Inc. provides cloud computing, security, and content delivery services in the United States and internationally. The company offers cloud solutions to keep infrastructure, websites, applications, application programming interfaces, and users safe from various cyberattacks and online threats while enhancing performance. It also provides web and mobile performance solutions to enable dynamic websites and applications; media delivery solutions, including video streaming and video player services, game and software delivery, broadcast operations, authoritative domain name system, resolution, and data and analytics; and cloud computing services, such as compute, storage, networking, database, and container management services to build, deploy, and secure applications and workloads. In addition, the company offers content delivery solutions; and an array of service and support to assist customers with integrating, configuring, optimizing, and managing its offerings. It sells its solutions through various channel partners. Akamai Technologies, Inc. was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AKAM",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "100.01",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of AKAM.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "MMM",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will MMM's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MMM for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "3M Company provides diversified technology services in the Americas, the Asia Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Safety and Industrial, Transportation and Electronics, and Consumer. The Safety and Industrial segment offers industrial abrasives and finishing for metalworking applications; autobody repair solutions; industrial specialty products, such as personal hygiene products, masking, and packaging materials; electrical products and materials for construction and maintenance, power distribution, and electrical original equipment manufacturers; structural adhesives and tapes; respiratory, hearing, eye, and fall protection solutions; and natural and color-coated mineral granules for shingles. The Transportation and Electronics segment provides ceramic solutions; attachment/bonding, films, sound, and temperature management for transportation vehicles; format graphic films for advertising and fleet signage; reflective signage for highway and vehicle safety; light management films and electronics assembly solutions; chip packaging and interconnection solutions; semiconductor production materials; and data center solutions. The Consumer segment offers cleaning products for the home; consumer air quality products; picture hanging accessories; retail abrasives, paint accessories, and safety products; stationery and office products; automotive appearance products; and consumer bandages, tapes, braces, and supports. The company offers its products through e-commerce and traditional wholesalers, retailers, jobbers, distributors, and dealers, as well as directly to users. 3M Company was founded in 1902 and is headquartered in Saint Paul, Minnesota.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MMM",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "148.62",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of MMM.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "MCHP",
                "LUV"
            ],
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "MCHP",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will MCHP's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MCHP for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Microchip Technology Incorporated engages in the development, manufacture, and sale of smart, connected, and secure embedded control solutions in the Americas, Europe, and Asia. The company offers general purpose 8-bit, 16-bit, and 32-bit mixed-signal microcontrollers; 32-bit embedded mixed-signal microprocessors; and specialized microcontrollers for automotive, industrial, computing, communications, lighting, power supplies, motor control, human machine interface, security, wired connectivity, and wireless connectivity applications. It also provides analog, interface, mixed signal, and timing products comprising power management, linear, mixed-signal, high-voltage, thermal management, discrete diodes, and metal oxide semiconductor field effect transistors (MOSFETS), radio frequency (RF), drivers, safety, security, timing, USB, Ethernet, wireless, and other interface products; field-programmable gate array (FPGA) products; and application development tools that enable system designers to program microcontroller, FPGA, and microprocessor products for specific applications. In addition, the company offers serial electrically erasable programmable read-only memory, serial flash memories, parallel flash memories, serial static random access memories, and serial electrically erasable random access memories for the production of very small footprint devices; and licenses its SuperFlash embedded flash and non-volatile memory technologies to foundries, integrated device manufacturers, and design partners for use in the manufacture of microcontroller products, gate array, RF, analog, and neuromorphic compute products that require embedded non-volatile memory, as well as provides engineering services. Further, it offers wafer foundry and assembly, and test subcontracting manufacturing services; and timing systems products, application specific integrated circuits, and aerospace products. The company was incorporated in 1989 and is headquartered in Chandler, Arizona.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MCHP",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "55.76",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of MCHP.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "LUV",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will LUV's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LUV for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Southwest Airlines Co. operates as a passenger airline company that provides scheduled air transportation services in the United States and near-international markets. As of December 31, 2024, the company operated a total fleet of 803 Boeing 737 aircraft; and served 117 destinations in 42 states, the District of Columbia, and the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, as well as ten near-international countries, including Mexico, Jamaica, the Bahamas, Aruba, the Dominican Republic, Costa Rica, Belize, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Turks and Caicos. It also provides inflight entertainment and connectivity services; and Rapid Rewards loyalty program that enables program members to earn points for dollars spent on Southwest base fares. In addition, the company offers a suite of digital platforms to support customers' travel needs, including websites and apps; and SWABIZ, an online booking tool. Further, it provides ancillary services, such as Southwest's EarlyBird Check-In, upgraded boarding, and transportation of pets and unaccompanied minors. Southwest Airlines Co. was incorporated in 1967 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LUV",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "30.28",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of LUV.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "PAYC",
                "CRM"
            ],
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "PAYC",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will PAYC's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PAYC for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Paycom Software, Inc. provides cloud-based human capital management (HCM) solution delivered as software-as-a-service for small to mid-sized companies in the United States. It offers functionality and data analytics that businesses need to manage the employment life cycle from recruitment to retirement. The company's HCM solution provides a suite of applications in the areas of talent acquisition, including applicant tracking, candidate tracker, background checks, on-boarding, e-verify, and tax credit services; and time and labor management, such as time and attendance, scheduling, time-off requests, labor allocation, labor management reports/push reporting, geofencing/geotracking, and Microfence, a proprietary Bluetooth. Its HCM solution also offers payroll applications comprising better employee transaction interface, payroll and tax management, payroll card, Everyday, Paycom pay, Client Action Center, expense management, mileage tracker/fixed and variable rates, garnishment administration, and GL concierge applications; and talent management applications that include employee self-service, compensation budgeting, performance management, position management, and Paycom learning, as well as my analytics. In addition, its HCM solution provides manager on-the-go that gives supervisors and managers the ability to perform a variety of tasks, such as approving time-off requests and expense reimbursements; direct data exchange; ask here, a tool for direct line of communication to ask work-related questions; document and checklist; government and compliance; benefits administration/benefits to carrier; benefit enrollment service; COBRA administration; personnel action and performance discussion forms; surveys; 401(k) reporting; report center; and affordable care act applications, as well as Clue, which securely collects, tracks, and manages the vaccination and testing data of the workforce. Paycom Software, Inc. was founded in 1998 and is based in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PAYC",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "209.22",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of PAYC.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "CRM",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will CRM's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CRM for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Salesforce, Inc. provides Customer Relationship Management (CRM) technology that brings companies and customers together worldwide. The company's service includes sales to store data, monitor leads and progress, forecast opportunities, gain insights through analytics and artificial intelligence, and deliver quotes, contracts, and invoices; and service that enables companies to deliver trusted and highly personalized customer support at scale. In addition, its platform offering comprise a flexible platform that enables companies of various sizes, locations, and industries to build business workflow and apps with customer; online learning platform that allows anyone to learn in-demand Salesforce skills; and Slack, an intelligent productivity platform. The company's marketing services enables companies to plan, personalize, automate, and optimize customer marketing journey, connecting interaction, and connected products; and commerce services, which empowers shopping experience across various customer touchpoint, such as mobile, web, social, and stores and provides click-to-code tools that offers customers to build and deploy solutions. Further, its analytics offering includes Tableau, an end-to-end analytics solution for range of enterprise use cases and intelligent analytics with AI models, spot trends, predict outcomes, creates summaries, timely recommendations, and take action from any device; and integration service including MuleSoft, which provides building blocks to deliver end-to-end and connected experiences. Additionally, the company provides data cloud, a hyperscale data engine native to Salesforce; vertical services to meet the needs of customers in industries, such as financial services, healthcare and life sciences, manufacturing and automotive and government; and offers salesforce starter for small and medium-sized businesses. Salesforce, Inc. was incorporated in 1999 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CRM",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "326.54",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of CRM.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "AMAT",
                "BIO"
            ],
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "AMAT",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will AMAT's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMAT for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Applied Materials, Inc. engages in the provision of manufacturing equipment, services, and software to the semiconductor, display, and related industries. The company operates through three segments: Semiconductor Systems, Applied Global Services, and Display. The Semiconductor Systems segment develops, manufactures, and sells semiconductor capital equipment that is used to fabricate semiconductor chips or integrated circuits. The Applied Global Services segment provides integrated solutions to optimize equipment and fab performance and productivity comprising spares, upgrades, services, and other equipment and factory automation software for semiconductor, display, and other products. The Display segment offers products for manufacturing liquid crystal displays; organic light-emitting diodes; and other display technologies for TVs, monitors, laptops, personal computers, smart phones, and other consumer-oriented devices and solar energy cells. It operates in the United States, China, Korea, Taiwan, Japan, Southeast Asia, Europe, and internationally. The company was incorporated in 1967 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, California.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMAT",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "169.2",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of AMAT.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "BIO",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will BIO's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BIO for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Bio-Rad Laboratories, Inc. manufactures and distributes life science research and clinical diagnostic products in the United States, Europe, Asia, Canada, and Latin America. It operates through two segments, Life Science and Clinical Diagnostics. The company develops, manufactures, and markets instruments, systems, reagents, and consumables to separate, purify, characterize, and quantitate biological materials such as cells, proteins, and nucleic acids for proteomics, genomics, biopharmaceutical production, cellular biology, and food safety markets. It also designs, manufactures, markets, and supports test systems, informatics systems, test kits, and specialized quality controls for hospitals, diagnostic reference, transfusion, and physician office laboratories. The company offers its products through its direct sales force, as well as through distributors, agents, brokers, and resellers. Bio-Rad Laboratories, Inc. was founded in 1952 and is headquartered in Hercules, California.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BIO",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "277.16",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of BIO.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "FSLR",
                "FTNT"
            ],
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "FSLR",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will FSLR's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FSLR for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "First Solar, Inc., a solar technology company, provides photovoltaic (PV) solar energy solutions in the United States, France, Japan, Chile, and internationally. The company manufactures and sells PV solar modules with a thin film semiconductor technology that provides a lower-carbon alternative to conventional crystalline silicon PV solar modules. It designs, manufactures, and sells cadmium telluride solar modules that converts sunlight into electricity. The company's residual business operations include project development activities, operations and maintenance services, and the sale of PV solar power systems to third-party customers. It serves developers and operators of systems, utilities, independent power producers, commercial and industrial companies, and other system owners. The company was formerly known as First Solar Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to First Solar, Inc. in 2006. First Solar, Inc. was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Tempe, Arizona.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FSLR",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "159.76",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of FSLR.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "FTNT",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will FTNT's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FTNT for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Fortinet, Inc. provides cybersecurity and convergence of networking and security solutions worldwide. It offers secure networking solutions focus on the convergence of networking and security; network firewall solutions that consist of FortiGate data centers, hyperscale, and distributed firewalls, as well as encrypted applications; wireless LAN solutions; and secure connectivity solutions, including FortiSwitch secure ethernet switches, FortiAP wireless local area network access points, FortiExtender 5G connectivity gateways, and other products. The company also provides the Fortinet Unified SASE solutions that include firewall, SD-WAN, Secure web gateway, cloud access services broker, data loss prevention, zero trust network access, and cloud security, including web application firewalls, virtualized firewalls, and cloud-native firewalls. In addition, it offers security operations solutions comprising FortiAI generative AI assistant, FortiSIEM security information and event management, FortiSOAR security orchestration, automation and response, FortiEDR endpoint detection and response, FortiXDR extended detection and response, FortiMDR managed detection and response service, FortiNDR network detection and response, FortiRecon digital risk protection, FortiDeceptor deception technology, FortiGuard SoCaaS, FortiSandbox sandboxing, FortiGuard incident response, and other products. Further, the company offers FortiGuard security services consisting of FortiGuard application security, content security, device security, NOC/SOC security, and web security services; FortiCare technical support services; and training services to customers and channel partners, as well as operates a FortiGuard Lab, a cybersecurity threat intelligence and research organization. It serves enterprise, communication and security service providers, government organizations, and small and medium-sized businesses. The company was incorporated in 2000 and is headquartered in Sunnyvale, California.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FTNT",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "111.64",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of FTNT.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "IR",
                "FTNT"
            ],
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "IR",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will IR's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IR for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Ingersoll Rand Inc. provides various mission-critical air, gas, liquid, and solid flow creation technologies services and solutions worldwide. It operates through two segments, Industrial Technologies and Services, and Precision and Science Technologies. The Industrial Technologies and Services segment designs, manufactures, markets, and services air and gas compression, vacuum, and blower products; fluid transfer equipment and loading systems; and power tools and lifting equipment, including associated aftermarket parts, consumables, air treatment equipment, controls, other accessories, and services under the under the Ingersoll Rand, Gardner Denver, Nash, CompAir, Elmo Rietschle brands, etc. The Precision and Science Technologies segment designs, manufactures, and markets diaphragm, piston, water-powered, peristaltic, gear, vane, progressive cavity, and syringe pumps; and gas boosters, hydrogen compression systems, automated liquid handling systems, odorant injection systems, controls, software, and other related components and accessories for liquid and gas dosing, transfer, dispensing, compression, sampling, pressure management, and flow control in specialized or critical applications under the Air Dimensions, Albin, ARO, Dosatron, Haskel, Ingersoll Rand, LMI, Maximus, Milton Roy, MP, Oberdorfer, Seepex, Thomas, Welch, Williams, YZ, and Zinnser Analytic brand names. This segment's products are used in medical, life sciences, industrial manufacturing, water and wastewater, chemical processing, energy, food and beverage, agriculture, and other markets. It sells through an integrated network of direct sales representatives and independent distributors. The company was formerly known as Gardner Denver Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Ingersoll Rand Inc. in March 2020. Ingersoll Rand Inc. was founded in 1859 and is headquartered in Davidson, North Carolina.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IR",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "85.72",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of IR.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "FTNT",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will FTNT's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FTNT for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Fortinet, Inc. provides cybersecurity and convergence of networking and security solutions worldwide. It offers secure networking solutions focus on the convergence of networking and security; network firewall solutions that consist of FortiGate data centers, hyperscale, and distributed firewalls, as well as encrypted applications; wireless LAN solutions; and secure connectivity solutions, including FortiSwitch secure ethernet switches, FortiAP wireless local area network access points, FortiExtender 5G connectivity gateways, and other products. The company also provides the Fortinet Unified SASE solutions that include firewall, SD-WAN, Secure web gateway, cloud access services broker, data loss prevention, zero trust network access, and cloud security, including web application firewalls, virtualized firewalls, and cloud-native firewalls. In addition, it offers security operations solutions comprising FortiAI generative AI assistant, FortiSIEM security information and event management, FortiSOAR security orchestration, automation and response, FortiEDR endpoint detection and response, FortiXDR extended detection and response, FortiMDR managed detection and response service, FortiNDR network detection and response, FortiRecon digital risk protection, FortiDeceptor deception technology, FortiGuard SoCaaS, FortiSandbox sandboxing, FortiGuard incident response, and other products. Further, the company offers FortiGuard security services consisting of FortiGuard application security, content security, device security, NOC/SOC security, and web security services; FortiCare technical support services; and training services to customers and channel partners, as well as operates a FortiGuard Lab, a cybersecurity threat intelligence and research organization. It serves enterprise, communication and security service providers, government organizations, and small and medium-sized businesses. The company was incorporated in 2000 and is headquartered in Sunnyvale, California.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FTNT",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "111.64",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of FTNT.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "AIZ",
                "CHD"
            ],
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "AIZ",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will AIZ's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AIZ for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Assurant, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides business services that supports, protects, and connects consumer purchases in North America, Latin America, Europe, and the Asia Pacific. The company operates through two segments: Global Lifestyle and Global Housing. The Global Lifestyle segment offers mobile device solutions, and extended service contracts and related services for consumer electronics and appliances, and credit and other insurance products; and vehicle protection, commercial equipment, and other related services. The Global Housing segment provides lender-placed homeowners, manufactured housing, and flood insurance; renters insurance and related products; and voluntary manufactured housing, and condominium and homeowners insurance products. The company was formerly known as Fortis, Inc. and changed its name to Assurant, Inc. in February 2004. Assurant, Inc. was founded in 1892 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AIZ",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "202.96",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of AIZ.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "CHD",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will CHD's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CHD for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Church & Dwight Co., Inc. develops, manufactures, and markets household, personal care, and specialty products. It operates in three segments: Consumer Domestic, Consumer International, and Specialty Products Division. The company offers cat litters, carpet deodorizers, laundry detergents, and baking soda, as well as other baking soda based products under the ARM & HAMMER brand; condoms, lubricants, and vibrators under the TROJAN brand; stain removers, cleaning solutions, laundry detergents, and bleach alternatives under the OXICLEAN brand; toothbrushes under the SPINBRUSH brand; home pregnancy and ovulation test kits under the FIRST RESPONSE brand; depilatories under the NAIR brand; oral analgesics under the ORAJEL brand; laundry detergents under the XTRA brand; gummy dietary supplements under the L'IL CRITTERS and VITAFUSION brands; dry shampoos under the BATISTE brand; water flossers and showerheads under the WATERPIK brand; cold shortening and relief products under the ZICAM brand; oral care products under the THERABREATH brand; and acne treatment products under the HERO brand. Its specialty products include animal and food productivity products, such as ARM & HAMMER baking soda as a feed additive to help dairy cow; BIO-CHLOR and FERMENTEN used to reduce health issues associated with calving, as well as needed protein; CELMANAX refined functional carbohydrate, a yeast-based prebiotic; and CERTILLUS a probiotics products used in the poultry, dairy, beef, and swine industries. It offers sodium bicarbonate; and cleaning and deodorizing products. The company sells its consumer products through supermarkets, mass merchandisers, wholesale clubs, drugstores, convenience stores, home stores, dollar and other discount stores, pet and other specialty stores, and websites and other e-commerce channels; and specialty products to industrial customers and livestock producers through distributors. The company was founded in 1846 and is headquartered in Ewing, New Jersey.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CHD",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "105.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of CHD.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "HPQ",
                "MDLZ"
            ],
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "HPQ",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will HPQ's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HPQ for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "HP Inc. provides personal computing, printing, 3D printing, hybrid work, gaming, and other related technologies in the United States and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Personal Systems, Printing, and Corporate Investments. The Personal Systems segment offers commercial and consumer desktops and notebooks, workstations, thin clients, retail point-of-sale systems, displays, software, support, and services, as well as hybrid systems. The Printing segment provides consumer and commercial printer hardware, supplies, solutions, and services, as well as focuses on graphics and 3D printing and personalization solutions in the commercial and industrial markets. The Corporate Investments segment is involved in the business incubation and investment projects. It serves individual consumers, small- and medium-sized businesses, and large enterprises. The company was formerly known as Hewlett-Packard Company and changed its name to HP Inc. in October 2015. HP Inc. was founded in 1939 and is headquartered in Palo Alto, California.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HPQ",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "33.64",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of HPQ.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "MDLZ",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will MDLZ's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MDLZ for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Mondelez International, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures, markets, and sells snack food and beverage products in the Latin America, North America, Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Europe. It provides biscuits and baked snacks, including cookies, crackers, salted snacks, snack bars, and cakes and pastries; chocolates; and gums and candies, as well as various cheese and grocery, and powdered beverage products. The company's brand portfolio includes Oreo, Ritz, LU, CLIF Bar, and Tate's Bake Shop biscuits and baked snacks, as well as Cadbury Dairy Milk, Milka, and Toblerone chocolate. It serves to supermarket chains, wholesalers, supercenters, club stores, mass merchandisers, distributors, convenience stores, gasoline stations, drug stores, value stores, and other retail food outlets through direct store delivery, company-owned and satellite warehouses, distribution centers, third party distributors, and other facilities, as well as through independent sales offices and agents. The company also sells products directly to businesses and consumers through e-retail platforms, retailer digital platforms, as well as through its direct-to-consumer websites and social media platforms. Mondelez International, Inc. was formerly known as Kraft Foods Inc. and changed its name to Mondelez International, Inc. in October 2012. The company was incorporated in 2000 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MDLZ",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "60.82",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of MDLZ.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "BLDR",
                "MHK"
            ],
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "BLDR",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will BLDR's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BLDR for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Builders FirstSource, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and supplies building materials, manufactured components, and construction services to professional homebuilders, sub-contractors, remodelers, and consumers in the United States. It offers lumber and lumber sheet goods comprising dimensional lumber, plywood, and oriented strand board products that are used in on-site house framing; manufactured products, such as wood floor and roof trusses, floor trusses, wall panels, stairs, and engineered wood products; and windows, and interior and exterior door units, as well as interior trims and custom products comprising intricate mouldings, stair parts, and columns under the Synboard brand name. The company also provides specialty building products and services, including vinyl, composite and wood siding, exterior trims, metal studs, cement, roofing, insulation, wallboards, ceilings, cabinets, and hardware products; turn-key framing, shell construction, design assistance, and professional installation services. In addition, it offers software products, such as drafting, estimating, quoting, and virtual home design services, which provide software solutions to retailers, distributors, manufacturers, and homebuilders. The company was formerly known as BSL Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Builders FirstSource, Inc. in October 1999. Builders FirstSource, Inc. was incorporated in 1998 and is based in Irving, Texas.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BLDR",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "153.9",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of BLDR.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "MHK",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will MHK's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MHK for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Mohawk Industries, Inc. designs, manufactures, sources, distributes, and markets flooring products for residential and commercial remodeling, and new construction channels in the United States, Europe, Latin America, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Global Ceramic, Flooring North America, and Flooring Rest of the World. The company provides ceramic, porcelain, and natural stone tiles products for floor and wall applications; natural stones, porcelain slabs, and quartz countertops, as well as installation materials; floor covering products comprising broadloom carpets, carpet tiles, rugs and mats, carpet pads, laminates, medium-density fiberboards, wood floorings, luxury vinyl tiles, and sheet vinyl; and roofing panels, insulation boards, mezzanine flooring products, medium-density fiberboard, and chipboards. It also licenses its intellectual property to flooring manufacturers. The company sells its products under the American Olean, Daltile, Decortiles, Eliane, EmilGroup, KAI, Kerama Marazzi, Marazzi, Ragno, Aladdin Commercial, Durkan, Foss, IVC, Karastan, Mohawk, Mohawk Group, Mohawk Home, Pergo, Portico, Quick-Step, Feltex, GH Commercial, Godfrey Hirst, Hycraft, IVC Commercial, IVC Home, Lentex, Leoline, and Moduleo, Redbook, Unilin, and Vitromex brands. It offers its products to company-owned service centers and stores, company-operated distributors, floor covering retailers, wholesalers, mass merchandisers, department stores, shop at home, buying groups, ceramic tile specialists, e-commerce retailers, residential builders, independent distributors, commercial contractors, and commercial end users. The company was incorporated in 1988 and is headquartered in Calhoun, Georgia.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MHK",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "121.01",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of MHK.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "MPC",
                "IQV"
            ],
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "MPC",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will MPC's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MPC for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Marathon Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated downstream energy company primarily in the United States. The company operates through Refining & Marketing, and Midstream segments. The Refining & Marketing segment refines crude oil and other feedstocks at its refineries in the Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and West Coast regions of the United States; and purchases refined products and ethanol for resale and distributes refined products, including renewable diesel, through transportation, storage, distribution, and marketing services. Its refined products include transportation fuels, such as reformulated gasolines and blend-grade gasolines; heavy fuel oil; and asphalt. This segment also manufactures propane and petrochemicals. It sells refined products to wholesale marketing customers in the United States and internationally, buyers on the spot market, and independent entrepreneurs who operate primarily Marathon branded outlets, as well as through long-term fuel supply contracts to direct dealer locations primarily under the ARCO brand. The Midstream segment transports, stores, distributes, and markets crude oil and refined products through refining logistics assets, pipelines, terminals, towboats, and barges; gathers, processes, and transports natural gas; and gathers, transports, fractionates, stores, and markets natural gas liquids. Marathon Petroleum Corporation was founded in 1887 and is headquartered in Findlay, Ohio.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MPC",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "156.06",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of MPC.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "IQV",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will IQV's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IQV for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "IQVIA Holdings Inc. provides clinical research services, commercial insights, and healthcare intelligence to the life sciences and healthcare industries in the Americas, Europe, Africa, and the Asia-Pacific. It operates through three segments: Technology & Analytics Solutions, Research & Development Solutions, and Contract Sales & Medical Solutions. The Technology & Analytics Solutions segment offers a range of cloud-based applications and related implementation services; real world solutions that enable life sciences and provider customers to generate and disseminate evidence, which informs health care decision making and improves patients' outcomes; and strategic and implementation consulting services, such as advanced analytics and commercial processes outsourcing services. This segment also provides country level performance metrics related to sales of pharmaceutical products, prescribing trends, medical treatment, and promotional activity across various channels, including retail, hospital, and mail order; and measurement of sales or prescribing activity at the regional, zip code, and individual prescriber level. The Research & Development Solutions segment offers project management and clinical monitoring; clinical trial support; strategic planning and design services; and patient and site centric solutions, as well as central laboratory, genomic, bioanalytical, ADME, discovery, and vaccine and biomarker laboratory services. The Contract Sales & Medical Solutions segment provides health care provider and patient engagement services, and scientific strategy and medical affairs services. It serves pharmaceutical, biotechnology, device and diagnostic, and consumer health companies. The company was formerly known as Quintiles IMS Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to IQVIA Holdings Inc. in November 2017. The company is based in Durham, North Carolina.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IQV",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "193.44",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of IQV.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "APA",
                "CHD"
            ],
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "APA",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will APA's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/APA for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "APA Corporation, an independent energy company, explores for, develops, and produces natural gas, crude oil, and natural gas liquids. It has oil and gas operations in the United States, Egypt, and North Sea. The company also has exploration and appraisal activities in Suriname, as well as holds interests in projects located in Uruguay and internationally. APA Corporation was incorporated in 1954 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/APA",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "23.14",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of APA.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "CHD",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will CHD's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CHD for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Church & Dwight Co., Inc. develops, manufactures, and markets household, personal care, and specialty products. It operates in three segments: Consumer Domestic, Consumer International, and Specialty Products Division. The company offers cat litters, carpet deodorizers, laundry detergents, and baking soda, as well as other baking soda based products under the ARM & HAMMER brand; condoms, lubricants, and vibrators under the TROJAN brand; stain removers, cleaning solutions, laundry detergents, and bleach alternatives under the OXICLEAN brand; toothbrushes under the SPINBRUSH brand; home pregnancy and ovulation test kits under the FIRST RESPONSE brand; depilatories under the NAIR brand; oral analgesics under the ORAJEL brand; laundry detergents under the XTRA brand; gummy dietary supplements under the L'IL CRITTERS and VITAFUSION brands; dry shampoos under the BATISTE brand; water flossers and showerheads under the WATERPIK brand; cold shortening and relief products under the ZICAM brand; oral care products under the THERABREATH brand; and acne treatment products under the HERO brand. Its specialty products include animal and food productivity products, such as ARM & HAMMER baking soda as a feed additive to help dairy cow; BIO-CHLOR and FERMENTEN used to reduce health issues associated with calving, as well as needed protein; CELMANAX refined functional carbohydrate, a yeast-based prebiotic; and CERTILLUS a probiotics products used in the poultry, dairy, beef, and swine industries. It offers sodium bicarbonate; and cleaning and deodorizing products. The company sells its consumer products through supermarkets, mass merchandisers, wholesale clubs, drugstores, convenience stores, home stores, dollar and other discount stores, pet and other specialty stores, and websites and other e-commerce channels; and specialty products to industrial customers and livestock producers through distributors. The company was founded in 1846 and is headquartered in Ewing, New Jersey.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CHD",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "105.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of CHD.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "CRM",
                "MHK"
            ],
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "CRM",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will CRM's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CRM for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Salesforce, Inc. provides Customer Relationship Management (CRM) technology that brings companies and customers together worldwide. The company's service includes sales to store data, monitor leads and progress, forecast opportunities, gain insights through analytics and artificial intelligence, and deliver quotes, contracts, and invoices; and service that enables companies to deliver trusted and highly personalized customer support at scale. In addition, its platform offering comprise a flexible platform that enables companies of various sizes, locations, and industries to build business workflow and apps with customer; online learning platform that allows anyone to learn in-demand Salesforce skills; and Slack, an intelligent productivity platform. The company's marketing services enables companies to plan, personalize, automate, and optimize customer marketing journey, connecting interaction, and connected products; and commerce services, which empowers shopping experience across various customer touchpoint, such as mobile, web, social, and stores and provides click-to-code tools that offers customers to build and deploy solutions. Further, its analytics offering includes Tableau, an end-to-end analytics solution for range of enterprise use cases and intelligent analytics with AI models, spot trends, predict outcomes, creates summaries, timely recommendations, and take action from any device; and integration service including MuleSoft, which provides building blocks to deliver end-to-end and connected experiences. Additionally, the company provides data cloud, a hyperscale data engine native to Salesforce; vertical services to meet the needs of customers in industries, such as financial services, healthcare and life sciences, manufacturing and automotive and government; and offers salesforce starter for small and medium-sized businesses. Salesforce, Inc. was incorporated in 1999 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CRM",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "326.54",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of CRM.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "MHK",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will MHK's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MHK for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Mohawk Industries, Inc. designs, manufactures, sources, distributes, and markets flooring products for residential and commercial remodeling, and new construction channels in the United States, Europe, Latin America, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Global Ceramic, Flooring North America, and Flooring Rest of the World. The company provides ceramic, porcelain, and natural stone tiles products for floor and wall applications; natural stones, porcelain slabs, and quartz countertops, as well as installation materials; floor covering products comprising broadloom carpets, carpet tiles, rugs and mats, carpet pads, laminates, medium-density fiberboards, wood floorings, luxury vinyl tiles, and sheet vinyl; and roofing panels, insulation boards, mezzanine flooring products, medium-density fiberboard, and chipboards. It also licenses its intellectual property to flooring manufacturers. The company sells its products under the American Olean, Daltile, Decortiles, Eliane, EmilGroup, KAI, Kerama Marazzi, Marazzi, Ragno, Aladdin Commercial, Durkan, Foss, IVC, Karastan, Mohawk, Mohawk Group, Mohawk Home, Pergo, Portico, Quick-Step, Feltex, GH Commercial, Godfrey Hirst, Hycraft, IVC Commercial, IVC Home, Lentex, Leoline, and Moduleo, Redbook, Unilin, and Vitromex brands. It offers its products to company-owned service centers and stores, company-operated distributors, floor covering retailers, wholesalers, mass merchandisers, department stores, shop at home, buying groups, ceramic tile specialists, e-commerce retailers, residential builders, independent distributors, commercial contractors, and commercial end users. The company was incorporated in 1988 and is headquartered in Calhoun, Georgia.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MHK",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "121.01",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of MHK.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "BLDR",
                "NDSN"
            ],
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "BLDR",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will BLDR's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BLDR for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Builders FirstSource, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and supplies building materials, manufactured components, and construction services to professional homebuilders, sub-contractors, remodelers, and consumers in the United States. It offers lumber and lumber sheet goods comprising dimensional lumber, plywood, and oriented strand board products that are used in on-site house framing; manufactured products, such as wood floor and roof trusses, floor trusses, wall panels, stairs, and engineered wood products; and windows, and interior and exterior door units, as well as interior trims and custom products comprising intricate mouldings, stair parts, and columns under the Synboard brand name. The company also provides specialty building products and services, including vinyl, composite and wood siding, exterior trims, metal studs, cement, roofing, insulation, wallboards, ceilings, cabinets, and hardware products; turn-key framing, shell construction, design assistance, and professional installation services. In addition, it offers software products, such as drafting, estimating, quoting, and virtual home design services, which provide software solutions to retailers, distributors, manufacturers, and homebuilders. The company was formerly known as BSL Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Builders FirstSource, Inc. in October 1999. Builders FirstSource, Inc. was incorporated in 1998 and is based in Irving, Texas.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BLDR",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "153.9",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of BLDR.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "NDSN",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will NDSN's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NDSN for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Nordson Corporation engineers, manufactures, and markets products and systems to dispense, apply, and control adhesives, coatings, polymers, sealants, biomaterials, and other fluids. It operates through three segments: Industrial Precision Solutions; Medical and Fluid Solutions; and Advanced Technology Solutions. The Industrial Precision Solutions segment provides dispensing, coating, and laminating systems for adhesives, lotions, liquids, and fibers to disposable products and roll goods; automated adhesive dispensing systems used in packaged goods industries; components and systems for thermoplastic and biopolymer melt stream; fluid components, such as nozzles, pumps, and filters; smart components that measure and control the flow, quantity and location of dispensed fluid; control systems; and dispensing, coating, and laminating systems. It also offers automated and manual dispensing products and systems for cold materials, container coating, liquid finishing, and powder coating, as well as ultraviolet equipment used in curing and drying operations; and in-line measurement sensors, gauges and analyzers, lasers, X-ray, optical and nucleonic technologies, and proprietary algorithms and software. The Medical and Fluid Solutions segment offers cannulas, catheters, and medical balloons; single-use plastic components; precision manual and semi-automated dispensers; and plastic molded syringes, cartridges, tips, and fluid connection components. The Advanced Technology Solutions segment provides automated dispensing systems for fluids attachment, protection, and coating, as well as related gas plasma treatment systems for cleaning and conditioning surfaces; and bond testing and automated optical, acoustic microscopy, and x-ray inspection systems for semiconductor and printed circuit board industries. The company markets its products through direct sales force, distributors, and sales representatives. The company was founded in 1909 and is headquartered in Westlake, Ohio.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NDSN",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "216.42",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of NDSN.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "FSLR",
                "PNR"
            ],
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "FSLR",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will FSLR's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FSLR for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "First Solar, Inc., a solar technology company, provides photovoltaic (PV) solar energy solutions in the United States, France, Japan, Chile, and internationally. The company manufactures and sells PV solar modules with a thin film semiconductor technology that provides a lower-carbon alternative to conventional crystalline silicon PV solar modules. It designs, manufactures, and sells cadmium telluride solar modules that converts sunlight into electricity. The company's residual business operations include project development activities, operations and maintenance services, and the sale of PV solar power systems to third-party customers. It serves developers and operators of systems, utilities, independent power producers, commercial and industrial companies, and other system owners. The company was formerly known as First Solar Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to First Solar, Inc. in 2006. First Solar, Inc. was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Tempe, Arizona.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FSLR",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "159.76",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of FSLR.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "PNR",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will PNR's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PNR for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Pentair plc provides various water solutions in the United States, Western Europe, China, Eastern Europe, Latin America, the Middle East, Southeast Asia, Australia, Canada, and Japan. The company operates through three segments: Flow, Water Solutions, and Pool. The Flow segment designs, manufactures, and sells fluid treatment and pump products and systems, including pressure vessels, gas recovery solutions, membrane bioreactors, wastewater reuse systems and advanced membrane filtration, separation systems, water disposal pumps, water supply pumps, fluid transfer pumps, turbine pumps, solid handling pumps, and agricultural spray nozzles for fluid delivery, ion exchange, desalination, food and beverage, separation technologies in the oil and gas industry, residential and municipal wells, water treatment, wastewater solids handling, pressure boosting, circulation and transfer, fire suppression, flood control, agricultural irrigation, and crop spray in residential, commercial, and industrial markets. The Water Solutions segment provides commercial and residential water treatment products and systems, including pressure tanks, control valves, activated carbon products, commercial ice machines, conventional filtration products, and point-of-entry and point-of-use water treatment systems, as well as installation and preventative services for use in residential whole home water filtration, drinking water filtration, and water softening solutions, as well as commercial total water management and filtration in foodservice operations. The Pool segment provides residential and commercial pool equipment and accessories comprising pumps, filters, heaters, lights, automatic controls, automatic cleaners, maintenance equipment, and pool accessories for applications in residential and commercial pool maintenance, pool repair, renovation, service, and construction and aquaculture solutions. Pentair plc was founded in 1966 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PNR",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "96.73",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of PNR.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "WFC",
                "HPQ"
            ],
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "WFC",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will WFC's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/WFC for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Wells Fargo & Company, a financial services company, provides diversified banking, investment, mortgage, and consumer and commercial finance products and services in the United States and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Consumer Banking and Lending; Commercial Banking; Corporate and Investment Banking; and Wealth and Investment Management. The Consumer Banking and Lending segment offers diversified financial products and services for consumers and small businesses. Its financial products and services include checking and savings accounts, and credit and debit cards, as well as home, auto, personal, and small business lending services. The Commercial Banking segment provides financial solutions to private, family owned, and certain public companies. Its products and services include banking and credit products across various industry sectors and municipalities, secured lending and lease products, and treasury management services. The Corporate and Investment Banking segment offers a suite of capital markets, banking, and financial products and services, such as corporate banking, investment banking, treasury management, commercial real estate lending and servicing, equity, and fixed income solutions, as well as sales, trading, and research capabilities services to corporate, commercial real estate, government, and institutional clients. The Wealth and Investment Management segment provides personalized wealth management, brokerage, financial planning, lending, private banking, and trust and fiduciary products and services to affluent, high-net worth, and ultra-high-net worth clients. It also operates through financial advisors in brokerage and wealth offices, consumer bank branches, independent offices, and digitally through WellsTrade and Intuitive Investor. The company was founded in 1852 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/WFC",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "79.98",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of WFC.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "HPQ",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will HPQ's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HPQ for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "HP Inc. provides personal computing, printing, 3D printing, hybrid work, gaming, and other related technologies in the United States and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Personal Systems, Printing, and Corporate Investments. The Personal Systems segment offers commercial and consumer desktops and notebooks, workstations, thin clients, retail point-of-sale systems, displays, software, support, and services, as well as hybrid systems. The Printing segment provides consumer and commercial printer hardware, supplies, solutions, and services, as well as focuses on graphics and 3D printing and personalization solutions in the commercial and industrial markets. The Corporate Investments segment is involved in the business incubation and investment projects. It serves individual consumers, small- and medium-sized businesses, and large enterprises. The company was formerly known as Hewlett-Packard Company and changed its name to HP Inc. in October 2015. HP Inc. was founded in 1939 and is headquartered in Palo Alto, California.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HPQ",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "33.64",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of HPQ.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "HPQ",
                "SBUX"
            ],
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "HPQ",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will HPQ's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HPQ for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "HP Inc. provides personal computing, printing, 3D printing, hybrid work, gaming, and other related technologies in the United States and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Personal Systems, Printing, and Corporate Investments. The Personal Systems segment offers commercial and consumer desktops and notebooks, workstations, thin clients, retail point-of-sale systems, displays, software, support, and services, as well as hybrid systems. The Printing segment provides consumer and commercial printer hardware, supplies, solutions, and services, as well as focuses on graphics and 3D printing and personalization solutions in the commercial and industrial markets. The Corporate Investments segment is involved in the business incubation and investment projects. It serves individual consumers, small- and medium-sized businesses, and large enterprises. The company was formerly known as Hewlett-Packard Company and changed its name to HP Inc. in October 2015. HP Inc. was founded in 1939 and is headquartered in Palo Alto, California.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HPQ",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "33.64",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of HPQ.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "SBUX",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will SBUX's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SBUX for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Starbucks Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a roaster, marketer, and retailer of coffee worldwide. The company operates through three segments: North America, International, and Channel Development. Its stores offer coffee, tea, and other beverages, roasted whole beans and ground coffees, single serve products, and ready-to-drink beverages; and various food products, such as pastries, breakfast sandwiches, and lunch items. The company also licenses its trademarks through licensed stores, and grocery and foodservice accounts. The company offers its products under the Starbucks Coffee, Teavana, Seattle's Best Coffee, Ethos, and Starbucks Reserve brands. Starbucks Corporation was founded in 1971 and is based in Seattle, Washington.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SBUX",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "112.55",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of SBUX.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "SJM",
                "NXPI"
            ],
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "SJM",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will SJM's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SJM for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "The J. M. Smucker Company manufactures and markets branded food and beverage products worldwide. It operates in four segments: U.S. Retail Coffee, U.S. Retail Frozen Handheld and Spreads, U.S. Retail Pet Foods, and Sweet Baked Snacks. The company offers coffee, pet snacks, peanut butter, cat food, frozen handheld products, sweet baked goods, fruit and specialty spreads, portion control products, baking mixes and ingredients, toppings and syrups, dog food, cookies, frozen sandwiches and snacks, hot beverages, frozen handheld products, and flour. It provides its products under the Folgers, Caf\u00e9 Bustelo, Dunkin', Jif, Smucker's, Smucker's Uncrustables, Meow Mix, Milk-Bone, Pup-Peroni, Canine Carry Outs, Hostess, Voortman, 1850, Robin Hood, and Five Roses brands. The company sells its products through direct sales and brokers to food retailers, club stores, discount and dollar stores, online retailers, pet specialty stores, distributors, drug stores, military commissaries, mass merchandisers, supermarket chains, national mass retailers, convenience stores, vending channels, and foodservice distributors and operators. The J. M. Smucker Company was founded in 1897 and is headquartered in Orrville, Ohio.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SJM",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "102.03",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of SJM.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "NXPI",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will NXPI's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NXPI for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "NXP Semiconductors N.V. offers various semiconductor products. The company's product portfolio includes microcontrollers; application processors, including i.MX application processors, and i.MX 8 and 9 family of applications processors; communication processors; wireless connectivity solutions, such as near field communications, ultra-wideband, Bluetooth low-energy, Zigbee, and Wi-Fi and Wi-Fi/Bluetooth integrated SoCs; analog and interface devices; radio frequency power amplifiers; and security controllers, as well as semiconductor-based environmental and inertial sensors, including pressure, inertial, magnetic, and gyroscopic sensors. Its products are used in various applications, including automotive, industrial and Internet of Things, mobile, and communication infrastructure. The company markets its products to various original equipment manufacturers, contract manufacturers, and distributors. It operates in China, the Netherlands, the United States, Singapore, Germany, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and internationally. N.V. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Eindhoven, the Netherlands.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NXPI",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "224.14",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of NXPI.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "CRM",
                "ACGL"
            ],
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "CRM",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will CRM's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CRM for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Salesforce, Inc. provides Customer Relationship Management (CRM) technology that brings companies and customers together worldwide. The company's service includes sales to store data, monitor leads and progress, forecast opportunities, gain insights through analytics and artificial intelligence, and deliver quotes, contracts, and invoices; and service that enables companies to deliver trusted and highly personalized customer support at scale. In addition, its platform offering comprise a flexible platform that enables companies of various sizes, locations, and industries to build business workflow and apps with customer; online learning platform that allows anyone to learn in-demand Salesforce skills; and Slack, an intelligent productivity platform. The company's marketing services enables companies to plan, personalize, automate, and optimize customer marketing journey, connecting interaction, and connected products; and commerce services, which empowers shopping experience across various customer touchpoint, such as mobile, web, social, and stores and provides click-to-code tools that offers customers to build and deploy solutions. Further, its analytics offering includes Tableau, an end-to-end analytics solution for range of enterprise use cases and intelligent analytics with AI models, spot trends, predict outcomes, creates summaries, timely recommendations, and take action from any device; and integration service including MuleSoft, which provides building blocks to deliver end-to-end and connected experiences. Additionally, the company provides data cloud, a hyperscale data engine native to Salesforce; vertical services to meet the needs of customers in industries, such as financial services, healthcare and life sciences, manufacturing and automotive and government; and offers salesforce starter for small and medium-sized businesses. Salesforce, Inc. was incorporated in 1999 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CRM",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "326.54",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of CRM.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "ACGL",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will ACGL's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ACGL for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Arch Capital Group Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance, reinsurance, and mortgage insurance products worldwide. The company's Insurance segment offers primary and excess casualty coverages; loss sensitive primary casualty insurance programs; directors' and officers' liability, errors and omissions liability, employment practices and fiduciary liability, crime, professional indemnity, and other financial related coverages; medical professional and general liability insurance coverages; and workers' compensation and umbrella liability, as well as commercial automobile and inland marine products. It also provides property, energy, marine, and aviation insurance; travel insurance; accident, disability, and medical plan insurance coverages; captive insurance programs; employer's liability; contract and commercial surety coverages; and collateral protection, debt cancellation, and service contract reimbursement products. This segment markets its products through a group of licensed independent retail and wholesale brokers. Its Reinsurance segment provides casualty reinsurance for third party liability exposures; marine and aviation; motor reinsurance, whole account multi-line treaties, cyber, trade credit, surety, accident and health, workers' compensation catastrophe, agriculture, trade credit, and political risk products; reinsurance protection for catastrophic losses, and personal lines and commercial property exposures; life reinsurance; casualty clash; and risk management solutions. This segment markets its reinsurance products through brokers. The company's Mortgage segment offers direct mortgage insurance and mortgage reinsurance. The company was founded in 1995 and is based in Pembroke, Bermuda.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ACGL",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "88.2",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of ACGL.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "CMCSA",
                "NDSN"
            ],
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "CMCSA",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will CMCSA's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CMCSA for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Comcast Corporation operates as a media and technology company worldwide. It operates through Residential Connectivity & Platforms, Business Services Connectivity, Media, Studios, and Theme Parks segments. The Residential Connectivity & Platforms segment provides residential broadband and wireless connectivity services, residential and business video services, sky-branded entertainment television networks, and advertising. The Business Services Connectivity segment offers connectivity services for small business locations, which include broadband, wireline voice, and wireless services; and ethernet network services for medium-sized customers and larger enterprises. The Media segment operates NBCUniversal's national and regional cable networks; the NBC and Telemundo broadcast networks and owned local broadcast television stations; and Peacock, a direct-to-consumer streaming services. It also operates international television networks comprising the Sky Sports networks, as well as other digital properties. The Studios segment operates NBCUniversal and Sky film and television studio production and distribution operations. The Theme Parks segment operates Universal theme parks in Orlando, Florida; Hollywood, California; Osaka, Japan; and Beijing, China. The company also offers a consolidated streaming platforms under the Philadelphia Flyers and the Wells Fargo Center arena in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania; and Xumo. Comcast Corporation was founded in 1963 and is headquartered in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CMCSA",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "35.39",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of CMCSA.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "NDSN",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will NDSN's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NDSN for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Nordson Corporation engineers, manufactures, and markets products and systems to dispense, apply, and control adhesives, coatings, polymers, sealants, biomaterials, and other fluids. It operates through three segments: Industrial Precision Solutions; Medical and Fluid Solutions; and Advanced Technology Solutions. The Industrial Precision Solutions segment provides dispensing, coating, and laminating systems for adhesives, lotions, liquids, and fibers to disposable products and roll goods; automated adhesive dispensing systems used in packaged goods industries; components and systems for thermoplastic and biopolymer melt stream; fluid components, such as nozzles, pumps, and filters; smart components that measure and control the flow, quantity and location of dispensed fluid; control systems; and dispensing, coating, and laminating systems. It also offers automated and manual dispensing products and systems for cold materials, container coating, liquid finishing, and powder coating, as well as ultraviolet equipment used in curing and drying operations; and in-line measurement sensors, gauges and analyzers, lasers, X-ray, optical and nucleonic technologies, and proprietary algorithms and software. The Medical and Fluid Solutions segment offers cannulas, catheters, and medical balloons; single-use plastic components; precision manual and semi-automated dispensers; and plastic molded syringes, cartridges, tips, and fluid connection components. The Advanced Technology Solutions segment provides automated dispensing systems for fluids attachment, protection, and coating, as well as related gas plasma treatment systems for cleaning and conditioning surfaces; and bond testing and automated optical, acoustic microscopy, and x-ray inspection systems for semiconductor and printed circuit board industries. The company markets its products through direct sales force, distributors, and sales representatives. The company was founded in 1909 and is headquartered in Westlake, Ohio.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NDSN",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "216.42",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of NDSN.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "SMCI",
                "FTNT"
            ],
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "SMCI",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will SMCI's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SMCI for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Super Micro Computer, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops and manufactures high performance server and storage solutions based on modular and open architecture in the United States, Europe, Asia, and internationally. Its solutions range from complete server, storage systems, modular blade servers, blades, workstations, full racks, networking devices, server sub-systems, server management software, and security software. The company provides application-optimized server solutions, rackmount and blade servers, storage, and subsystems and accessories; and server software management solutions, such as Server Management Suite, including Supermicro Server Manager, Supermicro Power Management software, Supermicro Update Manager, SuperCloud Composer, and SuperDoctor 5. In addition, it offers server subsystems and accessories comprising server boards, chassis, power supplies, and other accessories. Further, the company provides server and storage system integration, configuration, and software upgrade and update services; and technical documentation services, as well as identifies service requirements, creates and executes project plans, and conducts verification testing and technical documentation, and training services. Additionally, it offers help desk and on-site product support services for its server and storage systems; and customer support services, including ongoing maintenance and technical support for its products. The company provides its products to enterprise data centers, cloud computing, artificial intelligence, and 5G and edge computing markets. It sells its products through direct and indirect sales force, distributors, value-added resellers, system integrators, and original equipment manufacturers. The company was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SMCI",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "47.91",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of SMCI.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "FTNT",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will FTNT's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FTNT for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Fortinet, Inc. provides cybersecurity and convergence of networking and security solutions worldwide. It offers secure networking solutions focus on the convergence of networking and security; network firewall solutions that consist of FortiGate data centers, hyperscale, and distributed firewalls, as well as encrypted applications; wireless LAN solutions; and secure connectivity solutions, including FortiSwitch secure ethernet switches, FortiAP wireless local area network access points, FortiExtender 5G connectivity gateways, and other products. The company also provides the Fortinet Unified SASE solutions that include firewall, SD-WAN, Secure web gateway, cloud access services broker, data loss prevention, zero trust network access, and cloud security, including web application firewalls, virtualized firewalls, and cloud-native firewalls. In addition, it offers security operations solutions comprising FortiAI generative AI assistant, FortiSIEM security information and event management, FortiSOAR security orchestration, automation and response, FortiEDR endpoint detection and response, FortiXDR extended detection and response, FortiMDR managed detection and response service, FortiNDR network detection and response, FortiRecon digital risk protection, FortiDeceptor deception technology, FortiGuard SoCaaS, FortiSandbox sandboxing, FortiGuard incident response, and other products. Further, the company offers FortiGuard security services consisting of FortiGuard application security, content security, device security, NOC/SOC security, and web security services; FortiCare technical support services; and training services to customers and channel partners, as well as operates a FortiGuard Lab, a cybersecurity threat intelligence and research organization. It serves enterprise, communication and security service providers, government organizations, and small and medium-sized businesses. The company was incorporated in 2000 and is headquartered in Sunnyvale, California.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FTNT",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "111.64",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of FTNT.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "SBUX",
                "DOC"
            ],
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "SBUX",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will SBUX's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SBUX for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Starbucks Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a roaster, marketer, and retailer of coffee worldwide. The company operates through three segments: North America, International, and Channel Development. Its stores offer coffee, tea, and other beverages, roasted whole beans and ground coffees, single serve products, and ready-to-drink beverages; and various food products, such as pastries, breakfast sandwiches, and lunch items. The company also licenses its trademarks through licensed stores, and grocery and foodservice accounts. The company offers its products under the Starbucks Coffee, Teavana, Seattle's Best Coffee, Ethos, and Starbucks Reserve brands. Starbucks Corporation was founded in 1971 and is based in Seattle, Washington.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SBUX",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "112.55",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of SBUX.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "DOC",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will DOC's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DOC for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Healthpeak Properties, Inc. is a fully integrated real estate investment trust (REIT) and S&P 500 company. Healthpeak owns, operates, and develops high-quality real estate focused on healthcare discovery and delivery.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DOC",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "19.59",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of DOC.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "HPQ",
                "FOX"
            ],
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "HPQ",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will HPQ's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HPQ for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "HP Inc. provides personal computing, printing, 3D printing, hybrid work, gaming, and other related technologies in the United States and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Personal Systems, Printing, and Corporate Investments. The Personal Systems segment offers commercial and consumer desktops and notebooks, workstations, thin clients, retail point-of-sale systems, displays, software, support, and services, as well as hybrid systems. The Printing segment provides consumer and commercial printer hardware, supplies, solutions, and services, as well as focuses on graphics and 3D printing and personalization solutions in the commercial and industrial markets. The Corporate Investments segment is involved in the business incubation and investment projects. It serves individual consumers, small- and medium-sized businesses, and large enterprises. The company was formerly known as Hewlett-Packard Company and changed its name to HP Inc. in October 2015. HP Inc. was founded in 1939 and is headquartered in Palo Alto, California.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HPQ",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "33.64",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of HPQ.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "FOX",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will FOX's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FOX for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Fox Corporation operates as a news, sports, and entertainment company in the United States (U.S.). The company operates through four segments: Cable Network Programming, Television, Credible, and The FOX Studio Lot. The Cable Network Programming segment produces and licenses news and sports content for distribution through traditional cable television systems, direct broadcast satellite operators and telecommunication companies, virtual multi-channel video programming distributors, and other digital platforms primarily in the U.S. Television segment produces, acquires, markets, and distributes programming through the FOX broadcast network, advertising supported video-on-demand service Tubi, and operates power broadcast television stations including duopolies and other digital platform; and produces content for third parties. The Credible segment engages in the consumer finance marketplace. The FOX Studio Lot segment provides television and film production services along with office space, studio operation services and includes all operations of the facility. The company was incorporated in 2018 and is headquartered in New York, New York.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FOX",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "52.39",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of FOX.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "RL",
                "FTNT"
            ],
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "RL",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will RL's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RL for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Ralph Lauren Corporation designs, markets, and distributes lifestyle products in North America, Europe, Asia, and internationally. The company offers apparel, including a range of men's, women's, and children's clothing; footwear and accessories, which comprise casual shoes, dress shoes, boots, sneakers, sandals, eyewear, watches, fashion and fine jewelry, scarves, hats, gloves, and umbrellas, as well as leather goods, such as handbags, luggage, small leather goods, and belts; home products consisting of bed and bath lines, furniture, fabric and wallcoverings, floor coverings, lighting, tabletop, kitchen linens, floor coverings, dining, decorative accessories, and giftware; and fragrances. It sells apparel and accessories under the Ralph Lauren Collection, Ralph Lauren Purple Label, Polo Ralph Lauren, Double RL, Lauren Ralph Lauren, Polo Golf Ralph Lauren, Ralph Lauren Golf, RLX Ralph Lauren, Polo Ralph Lauren Children, and Chaps brands; women's fragrances under the Ralph Lauren Collection, Woman by Ralph Lauren, Romance Collection, and Ralph Collection brand names; and men's fragrances under the Ralph's Club, Purple Label, Polo Blue, Polo Red, Polo Green, Polo Black, Polo 67, Safari, Polo Sport, and Big Pony Men's brand names. The company's restaurant collection includes The Polo Bar in New York City; RL Restaurant in Chicago; Ralph's in Paris; The Bar at Ralph Lauren located in Milan; Ralph's Bar located in Chengdu, China; and Ralph's Coffee concept. It sells its products to department stores, specialty stores, and golf and pro shops, as well as directly to consumers through its retail stores, concession-based shop-within-shops, and its digital commerce sites. The company directly operates retail stores and concession-based shop-within-shops; and operates Ralph Lauren stores and stores and shops through licensing partners. Ralph Lauren Corporation was founded in 1967 and is headquartered in New York, New York.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RL",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "282.63",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of RL.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "FTNT",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will FTNT's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FTNT for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Fortinet, Inc. provides cybersecurity and convergence of networking and security solutions worldwide. It offers secure networking solutions focus on the convergence of networking and security; network firewall solutions that consist of FortiGate data centers, hyperscale, and distributed firewalls, as well as encrypted applications; wireless LAN solutions; and secure connectivity solutions, including FortiSwitch secure ethernet switches, FortiAP wireless local area network access points, FortiExtender 5G connectivity gateways, and other products. The company also provides the Fortinet Unified SASE solutions that include firewall, SD-WAN, Secure web gateway, cloud access services broker, data loss prevention, zero trust network access, and cloud security, including web application firewalls, virtualized firewalls, and cloud-native firewalls. In addition, it offers security operations solutions comprising FortiAI generative AI assistant, FortiSIEM security information and event management, FortiSOAR security orchestration, automation and response, FortiEDR endpoint detection and response, FortiXDR extended detection and response, FortiMDR managed detection and response service, FortiNDR network detection and response, FortiRecon digital risk protection, FortiDeceptor deception technology, FortiGuard SoCaaS, FortiSandbox sandboxing, FortiGuard incident response, and other products. Further, the company offers FortiGuard security services consisting of FortiGuard application security, content security, device security, NOC/SOC security, and web security services; FortiCare technical support services; and training services to customers and channel partners, as well as operates a FortiGuard Lab, a cybersecurity threat intelligence and research organization. It serves enterprise, communication and security service providers, government organizations, and small and medium-sized businesses. The company was incorporated in 2000 and is headquartered in Sunnyvale, California.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FTNT",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "111.64",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of FTNT.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "PNW",
                "HIG"
            ],
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "PNW",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will PNW's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PNW for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Pinnacle West Capital Corporation, through its subsidiary, provides retail and wholesale electric services primarily in the state of Arizona. The company engages in the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity using coal, nuclear, gas, oil, and solar generating facilities. Its transmission facilities include overhead lines and underground lines; and distribution facilities consist of overhead lines and underground primary cables. The company also owns and maintains transmission and distribution substations; and owns energy storage facilities. Pinnacle West Capital Corporation was incorporated in 1985 and is headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PNW",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "89.26",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of PNW.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "HIG",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will HIG's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HIG for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance and financial services to individual and business customers in the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally. Its Commercial Lines segment offers insurance coverages, including workers' compensation, property, automobile, general and professional liability, package business, umbrella, fidelity and surety, marine, livestock, accident, health, and reinsurance through regional offices, branches, sales and policyholder service centers, independent retail agents and brokers, wholesale agents, and reinsurance brokers. The company's Personal Lines segment provides automobile, homeowners, and personal umbrella coverages through direct-to-consumer channels and independent agents. Its Property & Casualty Other Operations segment offers coverage for asbestos and environmental exposures. The company's Group Benefits segment provides group life, disability, and other group coverages to members of employer groups, associations, and affinity groups through direct insurance policies; reinsurance to other insurance companies; employer paid and voluntary product coverages; disability underwriting, administration, and claims processing to self-funded employer plans; and leave management solution. This segment also distributes its group insurance products and services through brokers, consultants, third-party administrators, trade associations, and private exchanges. Its Hartford Funds segment offers managed mutual funds across various asset classes; and exchange-traded funds through broker-dealer organizations, independent financial advisers, defined contribution plans, financial consultants, bank trust groups, and registered investment advisers, as well as investment management, distribution, and administrative services, such as product design, implementation, and oversight. The company was founded in 1810 and is headquartered in Hartford, Connecticut.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HIG",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "111.98",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of HIG.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "NXPI",
                "PNR"
            ],
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "NXPI",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will NXPI's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NXPI for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "NXP Semiconductors N.V. offers various semiconductor products. The company's product portfolio includes microcontrollers; application processors, including i.MX application processors, and i.MX 8 and 9 family of applications processors; communication processors; wireless connectivity solutions, such as near field communications, ultra-wideband, Bluetooth low-energy, Zigbee, and Wi-Fi and Wi-Fi/Bluetooth integrated SoCs; analog and interface devices; radio frequency power amplifiers; and security controllers, as well as semiconductor-based environmental and inertial sensors, including pressure, inertial, magnetic, and gyroscopic sensors. Its products are used in various applications, including automotive, industrial and Internet of Things, mobile, and communication infrastructure. The company markets its products to various original equipment manufacturers, contract manufacturers, and distributors. It operates in China, the Netherlands, the United States, Singapore, Germany, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and internationally. N.V. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Eindhoven, the Netherlands.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NXPI",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "224.14",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of NXPI.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "PNR",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will PNR's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PNR for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Pentair plc provides various water solutions in the United States, Western Europe, China, Eastern Europe, Latin America, the Middle East, Southeast Asia, Australia, Canada, and Japan. The company operates through three segments: Flow, Water Solutions, and Pool. The Flow segment designs, manufactures, and sells fluid treatment and pump products and systems, including pressure vessels, gas recovery solutions, membrane bioreactors, wastewater reuse systems and advanced membrane filtration, separation systems, water disposal pumps, water supply pumps, fluid transfer pumps, turbine pumps, solid handling pumps, and agricultural spray nozzles for fluid delivery, ion exchange, desalination, food and beverage, separation technologies in the oil and gas industry, residential and municipal wells, water treatment, wastewater solids handling, pressure boosting, circulation and transfer, fire suppression, flood control, agricultural irrigation, and crop spray in residential, commercial, and industrial markets. The Water Solutions segment provides commercial and residential water treatment products and systems, including pressure tanks, control valves, activated carbon products, commercial ice machines, conventional filtration products, and point-of-entry and point-of-use water treatment systems, as well as installation and preventative services for use in residential whole home water filtration, drinking water filtration, and water softening solutions, as well as commercial total water management and filtration in foodservice operations. The Pool segment provides residential and commercial pool equipment and accessories comprising pumps, filters, heaters, lights, automatic controls, automatic cleaners, maintenance equipment, and pool accessories for applications in residential and commercial pool maintenance, pool repair, renovation, service, and construction and aquaculture solutions. Pentair plc was founded in 1966 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PNR",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "96.73",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of PNR.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "KMX",
                "ACGL"
            ],
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "KMX",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will KMX's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/KMX for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "CarMax, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a retailer of used vehicles and related products in the United States. It operates in two segments: CarMax Sales Operations and CarMax Auto Finance. The CarMax Sales Operations segment offers customers a range of makes and models of used vehicles, including domestic, imported, and luxury vehicles, as well as hybrid and electric vehicles; used vehicle auctions; extended protection plans to customers at the time of sale; and reconditioning and vehicle repair services. The CarMax Auto Finance segment provides financing alternatives for retail customers across a range of credit spectrum and arrangements with various financial institutions. The company was founded in 1993 and is based in Richmond, Virginia.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/KMX",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "88.9",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of KMX.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "ACGL",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will ACGL's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ACGL for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Arch Capital Group Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance, reinsurance, and mortgage insurance products worldwide. The company's Insurance segment offers primary and excess casualty coverages; loss sensitive primary casualty insurance programs; directors' and officers' liability, errors and omissions liability, employment practices and fiduciary liability, crime, professional indemnity, and other financial related coverages; medical professional and general liability insurance coverages; and workers' compensation and umbrella liability, as well as commercial automobile and inland marine products. It also provides property, energy, marine, and aviation insurance; travel insurance; accident, disability, and medical plan insurance coverages; captive insurance programs; employer's liability; contract and commercial surety coverages; and collateral protection, debt cancellation, and service contract reimbursement products. This segment markets its products through a group of licensed independent retail and wholesale brokers. Its Reinsurance segment provides casualty reinsurance for third party liability exposures; marine and aviation; motor reinsurance, whole account multi-line treaties, cyber, trade credit, surety, accident and health, workers' compensation catastrophe, agriculture, trade credit, and political risk products; reinsurance protection for catastrophic losses, and personal lines and commercial property exposures; life reinsurance; casualty clash; and risk management solutions. This segment markets its reinsurance products through brokers. The company's Mortgage segment offers direct mortgage insurance and mortgage reinsurance. The company was founded in 1995 and is based in Pembroke, Bermuda.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ACGL",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "88.2",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of ACGL.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "FSLR",
                "SYK"
            ],
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "FSLR",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will FSLR's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FSLR for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "First Solar, Inc., a solar technology company, provides photovoltaic (PV) solar energy solutions in the United States, France, Japan, Chile, and internationally. The company manufactures and sells PV solar modules with a thin film semiconductor technology that provides a lower-carbon alternative to conventional crystalline silicon PV solar modules. It designs, manufactures, and sells cadmium telluride solar modules that converts sunlight into electricity. The company's residual business operations include project development activities, operations and maintenance services, and the sale of PV solar power systems to third-party customers. It serves developers and operators of systems, utilities, independent power producers, commercial and industrial companies, and other system owners. The company was formerly known as First Solar Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to First Solar, Inc. in 2006. First Solar, Inc. was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Tempe, Arizona.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FSLR",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "159.76",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of FSLR.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "SYK",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will SYK's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SYK for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Stryker Corporation operates as a medical technology company. It operates through two segments, MedSurg and Neurotechnology, and Orthopaedics. The MedSurg and Neurotechnology segment offers surgical equipment, and surgical navigation systems, endoscopic and communications systems, patient handling, emergency medical equipment and intensive care disposable products, clinical communication and  artificial intelligence-assisted virtual care platform technology, minimally invasive products for the treatment of acute ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke, cranial, and maxillofacial and chest wall devices, as well as dural substitutes and sealants; traditional brain and open skull based surgical procedures products; and orthobiologic and biosurgery products, including synthetic bone grafts and vertebral augmentation products. The Orthopaedics segment provides implants for use in total joint replacements, such as hip, knee and shoulder, and trauma and extremities surgeries; thoracolumbar systems that include fixation, minimally invasive and interbody systems used in spinal injury, complex spine and degenerative therapies. The company sells its products to doctors, hospitals, and other healthcare facilities through company-owned subsidiaries and branches, as well as third-party dealers and distributors in approximately 75 countries. Stryker Corporation was founded in 1941 and is headquartered in Portage, Michigan.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SYK",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "385.18",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of SYK.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "XOM",
                "NXPI"
            ],
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "XOM",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will XOM's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XOM for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Exxon Mobil Corporation engages in the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas in the United States and internationally. It operates through Upstream, Energy Products, Chemical Products, and Specialty Products segments. The Upstream segment explores for and produces crude oil and natural gas. The Energy Products segment offers fuels, aromatics, and catalysts, as well as licensing services. It sells its products under the Exxon, Esso, and Mobil brands. The Chemical Products segment manufactures and markets petrochemicals including olefins, polyolefins, and intermediates. The Specialty Products segment offers performance products, including lubricants, basestocks, waxes, synthetics, elastomers, and resins. The company also involves in the manufacturing, trade, transport, and sale of crude oil, natural gas, petroleum products, petrochemicals, and other specialty products; and pursuit lower-emission business opportunities, including carbon capture and storage, hydrogen, lower-emission fuels, and lithium. Exxon Mobil Corporation was founded in 1870 and is based in Spring, Texas.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XOM",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "108.24",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of XOM.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "NXPI",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will NXPI's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NXPI for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "NXP Semiconductors N.V. offers various semiconductor products. The company's product portfolio includes microcontrollers; application processors, including i.MX application processors, and i.MX 8 and 9 family of applications processors; communication processors; wireless connectivity solutions, such as near field communications, ultra-wideband, Bluetooth low-energy, Zigbee, and Wi-Fi and Wi-Fi/Bluetooth integrated SoCs; analog and interface devices; radio frequency power amplifiers; and security controllers, as well as semiconductor-based environmental and inertial sensors, including pressure, inertial, magnetic, and gyroscopic sensors. Its products are used in various applications, including automotive, industrial and Internet of Things, mobile, and communication infrastructure. The company markets its products to various original equipment manufacturers, contract manufacturers, and distributors. It operates in China, the Netherlands, the United States, Singapore, Germany, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and internationally. N.V. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Eindhoven, the Netherlands.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NXPI",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "224.14",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of NXPI.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "IQV",
                "CRWD"
            ],
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "IQV",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will IQV's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IQV for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "IQVIA Holdings Inc. provides clinical research services, commercial insights, and healthcare intelligence to the life sciences and healthcare industries in the Americas, Europe, Africa, and the Asia-Pacific. It operates through three segments: Technology & Analytics Solutions, Research & Development Solutions, and Contract Sales & Medical Solutions. The Technology & Analytics Solutions segment offers a range of cloud-based applications and related implementation services; real world solutions that enable life sciences and provider customers to generate and disseminate evidence, which informs health care decision making and improves patients' outcomes; and strategic and implementation consulting services, such as advanced analytics and commercial processes outsourcing services. This segment also provides country level performance metrics related to sales of pharmaceutical products, prescribing trends, medical treatment, and promotional activity across various channels, including retail, hospital, and mail order; and measurement of sales or prescribing activity at the regional, zip code, and individual prescriber level. The Research & Development Solutions segment offers project management and clinical monitoring; clinical trial support; strategic planning and design services; and patient and site centric solutions, as well as central laboratory, genomic, bioanalytical, ADME, discovery, and vaccine and biomarker laboratory services. The Contract Sales & Medical Solutions segment provides health care provider and patient engagement services, and scientific strategy and medical affairs services. It serves pharmaceutical, biotechnology, device and diagnostic, and consumer health companies. The company was formerly known as Quintiles IMS Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to IQVIA Holdings Inc. in November 2017. The company is based in Durham, North Carolina.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IQV",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "193.44",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of IQV.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "CRWD",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will CRWD's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CRWD for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. provides cybersecurity solutions in the United States and internationally. Its unified platform offers cloud-delivered protection of endpoints, cloud workloads, identity, and data. The company offers corporate endpoint and cloud workload security, managed security, security and vulnerability management, IT operations management, identity protection, SIEM and log management, threat intelligence, data protection, security orchestration, automation and response and AI powered workflow automation, and securing generative AI workload services. It primarily sells subscriptions to its Falcon platform and cloud modules. The company was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in Austin, Texas.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CRWD",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "451.74",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of CRWD.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "MDLZ",
                "MCHP"
            ],
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "MDLZ",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will MDLZ's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MDLZ for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Mondelez International, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures, markets, and sells snack food and beverage products in the Latin America, North America, Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Europe. It provides biscuits and baked snacks, including cookies, crackers, salted snacks, snack bars, and cakes and pastries; chocolates; and gums and candies, as well as various cheese and grocery, and powdered beverage products. The company's brand portfolio includes Oreo, Ritz, LU, CLIF Bar, and Tate's Bake Shop biscuits and baked snacks, as well as Cadbury Dairy Milk, Milka, and Toblerone chocolate. It serves to supermarket chains, wholesalers, supercenters, club stores, mass merchandisers, distributors, convenience stores, gasoline stations, drug stores, value stores, and other retail food outlets through direct store delivery, company-owned and satellite warehouses, distribution centers, third party distributors, and other facilities, as well as through independent sales offices and agents. The company also sells products directly to businesses and consumers through e-retail platforms, retailer digital platforms, as well as through its direct-to-consumer websites and social media platforms. Mondelez International, Inc. was formerly known as Kraft Foods Inc. and changed its name to Mondelez International, Inc. in October 2012. The company was incorporated in 2000 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MDLZ",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "60.82",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of MDLZ.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "MCHP",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will MCHP's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MCHP for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Microchip Technology Incorporated engages in the development, manufacture, and sale of smart, connected, and secure embedded control solutions in the Americas, Europe, and Asia. The company offers general purpose 8-bit, 16-bit, and 32-bit mixed-signal microcontrollers; 32-bit embedded mixed-signal microprocessors; and specialized microcontrollers for automotive, industrial, computing, communications, lighting, power supplies, motor control, human machine interface, security, wired connectivity, and wireless connectivity applications. It also provides analog, interface, mixed signal, and timing products comprising power management, linear, mixed-signal, high-voltage, thermal management, discrete diodes, and metal oxide semiconductor field effect transistors (MOSFETS), radio frequency (RF), drivers, safety, security, timing, USB, Ethernet, wireless, and other interface products; field-programmable gate array (FPGA) products; and application development tools that enable system designers to program microcontroller, FPGA, and microprocessor products for specific applications. In addition, the company offers serial electrically erasable programmable read-only memory, serial flash memories, parallel flash memories, serial static random access memories, and serial electrically erasable random access memories for the production of very small footprint devices; and licenses its SuperFlash embedded flash and non-volatile memory technologies to foundries, integrated device manufacturers, and design partners for use in the manufacture of microcontroller products, gate array, RF, analog, and neuromorphic compute products that require embedded non-volatile memory, as well as provides engineering services. Further, it offers wafer foundry and assembly, and test subcontracting manufacturing services; and timing systems products, application specific integrated circuits, and aerospace products. The company was incorporated in 1989 and is headquartered in Chandler, Arizona.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MCHP",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "55.76",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of MCHP.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "RJF",
                "DOC"
            ],
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "RJF",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will RJF's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RJF for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Raymond James Financial, Inc., a diversified financial services company, provides private client group, capital markets, asset management, banking, and other services to individuals, corporations, and municipalities in the United States, Canada, and Europe. The Private Client Group segment offers investment services, portfolio management services, insurance and annuity products, and mutual funds; support to third-party mutual fund and annuity companies, including sales and marketing support, as well as distribution and accounting, and administrative services; margin loans; securities borrowing and lending services; diversification strategies and alternative investment products; and custodial, trade execution, research, and other support and services. The Capital Markets segment provides investment banking services, such as equity and debt underwriting, and merger and acquisition advisory services; and fixed income and equity brokerage services. This segment also offers institutional sales, securities trading, equity research, and the syndication and management of investments in low-income housing funds and funds of a similar nature. The Asset Management segment provides asset management, portfolio management, and related administrative services to retail and institutional clients; and administrative support services, such as record-keeping. The Bank segment offers various types of loans, including securities-based, commercial and industrial, commercial real estate and construction, real estate investment trust, residential mortgage, and tax-exempt loans; insured deposit accounts; retail and corporate deposit; and liquidity management products and services. The Other segment engages in the private equity investments comprising invests in third-party funds. Raymond James Financial, Inc. was founded in 1962 and is headquartered in Saint Petersburg, Florida.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RJF",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "159.84",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of RJF.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "DOC",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will DOC's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DOC for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Healthpeak Properties, Inc. is a fully integrated real estate investment trust (REIT) and S&P 500 company. Healthpeak owns, operates, and develops high-quality real estate focused on healthcare discovery and delivery.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DOC",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "19.59",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of DOC.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "CHD",
                "FTNT"
            ],
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "CHD",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will CHD's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CHD for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Church & Dwight Co., Inc. develops, manufactures, and markets household, personal care, and specialty products. It operates in three segments: Consumer Domestic, Consumer International, and Specialty Products Division. The company offers cat litters, carpet deodorizers, laundry detergents, and baking soda, as well as other baking soda based products under the ARM & HAMMER brand; condoms, lubricants, and vibrators under the TROJAN brand; stain removers, cleaning solutions, laundry detergents, and bleach alternatives under the OXICLEAN brand; toothbrushes under the SPINBRUSH brand; home pregnancy and ovulation test kits under the FIRST RESPONSE brand; depilatories under the NAIR brand; oral analgesics under the ORAJEL brand; laundry detergents under the XTRA brand; gummy dietary supplements under the L'IL CRITTERS and VITAFUSION brands; dry shampoos under the BATISTE brand; water flossers and showerheads under the WATERPIK brand; cold shortening and relief products under the ZICAM brand; oral care products under the THERABREATH brand; and acne treatment products under the HERO brand. Its specialty products include animal and food productivity products, such as ARM & HAMMER baking soda as a feed additive to help dairy cow; BIO-CHLOR and FERMENTEN used to reduce health issues associated with calving, as well as needed protein; CELMANAX refined functional carbohydrate, a yeast-based prebiotic; and CERTILLUS a probiotics products used in the poultry, dairy, beef, and swine industries. It offers sodium bicarbonate; and cleaning and deodorizing products. The company sells its consumer products through supermarkets, mass merchandisers, wholesale clubs, drugstores, convenience stores, home stores, dollar and other discount stores, pet and other specialty stores, and websites and other e-commerce channels; and specialty products to industrial customers and livestock producers through distributors. The company was founded in 1846 and is headquartered in Ewing, New Jersey.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CHD",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "105.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of CHD.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "FTNT",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will FTNT's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FTNT for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Fortinet, Inc. provides cybersecurity and convergence of networking and security solutions worldwide. It offers secure networking solutions focus on the convergence of networking and security; network firewall solutions that consist of FortiGate data centers, hyperscale, and distributed firewalls, as well as encrypted applications; wireless LAN solutions; and secure connectivity solutions, including FortiSwitch secure ethernet switches, FortiAP wireless local area network access points, FortiExtender 5G connectivity gateways, and other products. The company also provides the Fortinet Unified SASE solutions that include firewall, SD-WAN, Secure web gateway, cloud access services broker, data loss prevention, zero trust network access, and cloud security, including web application firewalls, virtualized firewalls, and cloud-native firewalls. In addition, it offers security operations solutions comprising FortiAI generative AI assistant, FortiSIEM security information and event management, FortiSOAR security orchestration, automation and response, FortiEDR endpoint detection and response, FortiXDR extended detection and response, FortiMDR managed detection and response service, FortiNDR network detection and response, FortiRecon digital risk protection, FortiDeceptor deception technology, FortiGuard SoCaaS, FortiSandbox sandboxing, FortiGuard incident response, and other products. Further, the company offers FortiGuard security services consisting of FortiGuard application security, content security, device security, NOC/SOC security, and web security services; FortiCare technical support services; and training services to customers and channel partners, as well as operates a FortiGuard Lab, a cybersecurity threat intelligence and research organization. It serves enterprise, communication and security service providers, government organizations, and small and medium-sized businesses. The company was incorporated in 2000 and is headquartered in Sunnyvale, California.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FTNT",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "111.64",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of FTNT.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "CRM",
                "IP"
            ],
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "CRM",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will CRM's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CRM for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Salesforce, Inc. provides Customer Relationship Management (CRM) technology that brings companies and customers together worldwide. The company's service includes sales to store data, monitor leads and progress, forecast opportunities, gain insights through analytics and artificial intelligence, and deliver quotes, contracts, and invoices; and service that enables companies to deliver trusted and highly personalized customer support at scale. In addition, its platform offering comprise a flexible platform that enables companies of various sizes, locations, and industries to build business workflow and apps with customer; online learning platform that allows anyone to learn in-demand Salesforce skills; and Slack, an intelligent productivity platform. The company's marketing services enables companies to plan, personalize, automate, and optimize customer marketing journey, connecting interaction, and connected products; and commerce services, which empowers shopping experience across various customer touchpoint, such as mobile, web, social, and stores and provides click-to-code tools that offers customers to build and deploy solutions. Further, its analytics offering includes Tableau, an end-to-end analytics solution for range of enterprise use cases and intelligent analytics with AI models, spot trends, predict outcomes, creates summaries, timely recommendations, and take action from any device; and integration service including MuleSoft, which provides building blocks to deliver end-to-end and connected experiences. Additionally, the company provides data cloud, a hyperscale data engine native to Salesforce; vertical services to meet the needs of customers in industries, such as financial services, healthcare and life sciences, manufacturing and automotive and government; and offers salesforce starter for small and medium-sized businesses. Salesforce, Inc. was incorporated in 1999 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CRM",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "326.54",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of CRM.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "IP",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will IP's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IP for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "International Paper Company produces and sells renewable fiber-based packaging and pulp products in North America, Latin America, Europe, and North Africa. It operates through two segments, Industrial Packaging and Global Cellulose Fibers. The company offers linerboard, medium, whitetop, recycled linerboard, recycled medium and saturating kraft; and pulp for a range of applications, such as diapers, towel and tissue products, feminine care, incontinence, and other personal care products, as well as specialty pulps for use in textiles, construction materials, paints, coatings, and others. It sells its products directly to end users and converters, as well as through agents, resellers, and distributors. The company was founded in 1898 and is headquartered in Memphis, Tennessee.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IP",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "56.12",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of IP.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "PAYC",
                "BLDR"
            ],
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "PAYC",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will PAYC's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PAYC for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Paycom Software, Inc. provides cloud-based human capital management (HCM) solution delivered as software-as-a-service for small to mid-sized companies in the United States. It offers functionality and data analytics that businesses need to manage the employment life cycle from recruitment to retirement. The company's HCM solution provides a suite of applications in the areas of talent acquisition, including applicant tracking, candidate tracker, background checks, on-boarding, e-verify, and tax credit services; and time and labor management, such as time and attendance, scheduling, time-off requests, labor allocation, labor management reports/push reporting, geofencing/geotracking, and Microfence, a proprietary Bluetooth. Its HCM solution also offers payroll applications comprising better employee transaction interface, payroll and tax management, payroll card, Everyday, Paycom pay, Client Action Center, expense management, mileage tracker/fixed and variable rates, garnishment administration, and GL concierge applications; and talent management applications that include employee self-service, compensation budgeting, performance management, position management, and Paycom learning, as well as my analytics. In addition, its HCM solution provides manager on-the-go that gives supervisors and managers the ability to perform a variety of tasks, such as approving time-off requests and expense reimbursements; direct data exchange; ask here, a tool for direct line of communication to ask work-related questions; document and checklist; government and compliance; benefits administration/benefits to carrier; benefit enrollment service; COBRA administration; personnel action and performance discussion forms; surveys; 401(k) reporting; report center; and affordable care act applications, as well as Clue, which securely collects, tracks, and manages the vaccination and testing data of the workforce. Paycom Software, Inc. was founded in 1998 and is based in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PAYC",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "209.22",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of PAYC.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "BLDR",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will BLDR's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BLDR for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Builders FirstSource, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and supplies building materials, manufactured components, and construction services to professional homebuilders, sub-contractors, remodelers, and consumers in the United States. It offers lumber and lumber sheet goods comprising dimensional lumber, plywood, and oriented strand board products that are used in on-site house framing; manufactured products, such as wood floor and roof trusses, floor trusses, wall panels, stairs, and engineered wood products; and windows, and interior and exterior door units, as well as interior trims and custom products comprising intricate mouldings, stair parts, and columns under the Synboard brand name. The company also provides specialty building products and services, including vinyl, composite and wood siding, exterior trims, metal studs, cement, roofing, insulation, wallboards, ceilings, cabinets, and hardware products; turn-key framing, shell construction, design assistance, and professional installation services. In addition, it offers software products, such as drafting, estimating, quoting, and virtual home design services, which provide software solutions to retailers, distributors, manufacturers, and homebuilders. The company was formerly known as BSL Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Builders FirstSource, Inc. in October 1999. Builders FirstSource, Inc. was incorporated in 1998 and is based in Irving, Texas.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BLDR",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "153.9",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of BLDR.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "CRM",
                "AKAM"
            ],
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "CRM",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will CRM's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CRM for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Salesforce, Inc. provides Customer Relationship Management (CRM) technology that brings companies and customers together worldwide. The company's service includes sales to store data, monitor leads and progress, forecast opportunities, gain insights through analytics and artificial intelligence, and deliver quotes, contracts, and invoices; and service that enables companies to deliver trusted and highly personalized customer support at scale. In addition, its platform offering comprise a flexible platform that enables companies of various sizes, locations, and industries to build business workflow and apps with customer; online learning platform that allows anyone to learn in-demand Salesforce skills; and Slack, an intelligent productivity platform. The company's marketing services enables companies to plan, personalize, automate, and optimize customer marketing journey, connecting interaction, and connected products; and commerce services, which empowers shopping experience across various customer touchpoint, such as mobile, web, social, and stores and provides click-to-code tools that offers customers to build and deploy solutions. Further, its analytics offering includes Tableau, an end-to-end analytics solution for range of enterprise use cases and intelligent analytics with AI models, spot trends, predict outcomes, creates summaries, timely recommendations, and take action from any device; and integration service including MuleSoft, which provides building blocks to deliver end-to-end and connected experiences. Additionally, the company provides data cloud, a hyperscale data engine native to Salesforce; vertical services to meet the needs of customers in industries, such as financial services, healthcare and life sciences, manufacturing and automotive and government; and offers salesforce starter for small and medium-sized businesses. Salesforce, Inc. was incorporated in 1999 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CRM",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "326.54",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of CRM.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "AKAM",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will AKAM's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AKAM for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Akamai Technologies, Inc. provides cloud computing, security, and content delivery services in the United States and internationally. The company offers cloud solutions to keep infrastructure, websites, applications, application programming interfaces, and users safe from various cyberattacks and online threats while enhancing performance. It also provides web and mobile performance solutions to enable dynamic websites and applications; media delivery solutions, including video streaming and video player services, game and software delivery, broadcast operations, authoritative domain name system, resolution, and data and analytics; and cloud computing services, such as compute, storage, networking, database, and container management services to build, deploy, and secure applications and workloads. In addition, the company offers content delivery solutions; and an array of service and support to assist customers with integrating, configuring, optimizing, and managing its offerings. It sells its solutions through various channel partners. Akamai Technologies, Inc. was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AKAM",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "100.01",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of AKAM.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "WTW",
                "MHK"
            ],
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "WTW",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will WTW's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/WTW for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Willis Towers Watson Public Limited Company operates as an advisory, broking, and solutions company worldwide. It operates through two segments: Health, Wealth & Career and Risk & Broking. The company offers strategy and design consulting, plan management service and support, broking and administration services for health, wellbeing, and other group benefit program, including medical, dental, disability, life, voluntary benefits and other coverages; actuarial support, plan design, and administrative services for pension and retirement savings plans; retirement consulting services and solutions; and integrated solutions that consists of investment discretionary management, pension administration, core actuarial, and communication and change management assistance services. It also provides advice, data, software, and products to address clients' total rewards and talent issues; and risk advice, insurance brokerage, and consulting services in the areas of property and casualty, affinity, risk and analytics, aerospace, construction, global markets direct & facultative, financial, executive and professional risks, financial solutions, crisis management, surety, marine, and natural resources. In addition, the company offers integrated solutions that consists of investment discretionary management, pension administration, core actuarial, and communication and change management assistance services; and software and technology, risk and capital management, products and product pricing, financial and regulatory reporting, financial and capital modeling, M&A, outsourcing, and business management services. The company was formerly known as Willis Group Holdings Public Limited Company and changed its name to Willis Towers Watson Public Limited Company in January 2016. Willis Towers Watson Public Limited Company was founded in 1828 and is based in London, the United Kingdom.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/WTW",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "320.4",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of WTW.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "MHK",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will MHK's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MHK for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Mohawk Industries, Inc. designs, manufactures, sources, distributes, and markets flooring products for residential and commercial remodeling, and new construction channels in the United States, Europe, Latin America, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Global Ceramic, Flooring North America, and Flooring Rest of the World. The company provides ceramic, porcelain, and natural stone tiles products for floor and wall applications; natural stones, porcelain slabs, and quartz countertops, as well as installation materials; floor covering products comprising broadloom carpets, carpet tiles, rugs and mats, carpet pads, laminates, medium-density fiberboards, wood floorings, luxury vinyl tiles, and sheet vinyl; and roofing panels, insulation boards, mezzanine flooring products, medium-density fiberboard, and chipboards. It also licenses its intellectual property to flooring manufacturers. The company sells its products under the American Olean, Daltile, Decortiles, Eliane, EmilGroup, KAI, Kerama Marazzi, Marazzi, Ragno, Aladdin Commercial, Durkan, Foss, IVC, Karastan, Mohawk, Mohawk Group, Mohawk Home, Pergo, Portico, Quick-Step, Feltex, GH Commercial, Godfrey Hirst, Hycraft, IVC Commercial, IVC Home, Lentex, Leoline, and Moduleo, Redbook, Unilin, and Vitromex brands. It offers its products to company-owned service centers and stores, company-operated distributors, floor covering retailers, wholesalers, mass merchandisers, department stores, shop at home, buying groups, ceramic tile specialists, e-commerce retailers, residential builders, independent distributors, commercial contractors, and commercial end users. The company was incorporated in 1988 and is headquartered in Calhoun, Georgia.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MHK",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "121.01",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of MHK.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "MCHP",
                "RL"
            ],
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "MCHP",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will MCHP's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MCHP for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Microchip Technology Incorporated engages in the development, manufacture, and sale of smart, connected, and secure embedded control solutions in the Americas, Europe, and Asia. The company offers general purpose 8-bit, 16-bit, and 32-bit mixed-signal microcontrollers; 32-bit embedded mixed-signal microprocessors; and specialized microcontrollers for automotive, industrial, computing, communications, lighting, power supplies, motor control, human machine interface, security, wired connectivity, and wireless connectivity applications. It also provides analog, interface, mixed signal, and timing products comprising power management, linear, mixed-signal, high-voltage, thermal management, discrete diodes, and metal oxide semiconductor field effect transistors (MOSFETS), radio frequency (RF), drivers, safety, security, timing, USB, Ethernet, wireless, and other interface products; field-programmable gate array (FPGA) products; and application development tools that enable system designers to program microcontroller, FPGA, and microprocessor products for specific applications. In addition, the company offers serial electrically erasable programmable read-only memory, serial flash memories, parallel flash memories, serial static random access memories, and serial electrically erasable random access memories for the production of very small footprint devices; and licenses its SuperFlash embedded flash and non-volatile memory technologies to foundries, integrated device manufacturers, and design partners for use in the manufacture of microcontroller products, gate array, RF, analog, and neuromorphic compute products that require embedded non-volatile memory, as well as provides engineering services. Further, it offers wafer foundry and assembly, and test subcontracting manufacturing services; and timing systems products, application specific integrated circuits, and aerospace products. The company was incorporated in 1989 and is headquartered in Chandler, Arizona.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MCHP",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "55.76",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of MCHP.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "RL",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will RL's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RL for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Ralph Lauren Corporation designs, markets, and distributes lifestyle products in North America, Europe, Asia, and internationally. The company offers apparel, including a range of men's, women's, and children's clothing; footwear and accessories, which comprise casual shoes, dress shoes, boots, sneakers, sandals, eyewear, watches, fashion and fine jewelry, scarves, hats, gloves, and umbrellas, as well as leather goods, such as handbags, luggage, small leather goods, and belts; home products consisting of bed and bath lines, furniture, fabric and wallcoverings, floor coverings, lighting, tabletop, kitchen linens, floor coverings, dining, decorative accessories, and giftware; and fragrances. It sells apparel and accessories under the Ralph Lauren Collection, Ralph Lauren Purple Label, Polo Ralph Lauren, Double RL, Lauren Ralph Lauren, Polo Golf Ralph Lauren, Ralph Lauren Golf, RLX Ralph Lauren, Polo Ralph Lauren Children, and Chaps brands; women's fragrances under the Ralph Lauren Collection, Woman by Ralph Lauren, Romance Collection, and Ralph Collection brand names; and men's fragrances under the Ralph's Club, Purple Label, Polo Blue, Polo Red, Polo Green, Polo Black, Polo 67, Safari, Polo Sport, and Big Pony Men's brand names. The company's restaurant collection includes The Polo Bar in New York City; RL Restaurant in Chicago; Ralph's in Paris; The Bar at Ralph Lauren located in Milan; Ralph's Bar located in Chengdu, China; and Ralph's Coffee concept. It sells its products to department stores, specialty stores, and golf and pro shops, as well as directly to consumers through its retail stores, concession-based shop-within-shops, and its digital commerce sites. The company directly operates retail stores and concession-based shop-within-shops; and operates Ralph Lauren stores and stores and shops through licensing partners. Ralph Lauren Corporation was founded in 1967 and is headquartered in New York, New York.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RL",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "282.63",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of RL.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "NOW",
                "BIO"
            ],
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "NOW",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will NOW's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NOW for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "ServiceNow, Inc. provides cloud-based solution for digital workflows in the North America, Europe, the Middle East and Africa, Asia Pacific, and internationally. The company operates the Now platform, an AI platform for digital transformation machine learning, robotic process automation, process mining, analytics, and low-code/no-code development tools. It also provides asset management, integrated risk management, IT service management, Operational Technology management, Security Operations, strategic portfolio management, IT operations management products; customer service management product; and field service management applications. n addition, the company offers human resources, legal, and workplace service delivery products; app engine product; automation engine; platform privacy and security product; and source-to-pay operations. It serves to government, financial services, healthcare and life science, manufacturing, Public Sector, retail, IT services, technology, and Telecom sectors through service providers and resale partners. The company was formerly known as Service-now.com and changed its name to ServiceNow, Inc. in May 2012. ServiceNow, Inc. was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, California.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NOW",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "986.63",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of NOW.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "BIO",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will BIO's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BIO for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Bio-Rad Laboratories, Inc. manufactures and distributes life science research and clinical diagnostic products in the United States, Europe, Asia, Canada, and Latin America. It operates through two segments, Life Science and Clinical Diagnostics. The company develops, manufactures, and markets instruments, systems, reagents, and consumables to separate, purify, characterize, and quantitate biological materials such as cells, proteins, and nucleic acids for proteomics, genomics, biopharmaceutical production, cellular biology, and food safety markets. It also designs, manufactures, markets, and supports test systems, informatics systems, test kits, and specialized quality controls for hospitals, diagnostic reference, transfusion, and physician office laboratories. The company offers its products through its direct sales force, as well as through distributors, agents, brokers, and resellers. Bio-Rad Laboratories, Inc. was founded in 1952 and is headquartered in Hercules, California.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BIO",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "277.16",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of BIO.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "SJM",
                "APA"
            ],
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "SJM",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will SJM's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SJM for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "The J. M. Smucker Company manufactures and markets branded food and beverage products worldwide. It operates in four segments: U.S. Retail Coffee, U.S. Retail Frozen Handheld and Spreads, U.S. Retail Pet Foods, and Sweet Baked Snacks. The company offers coffee, pet snacks, peanut butter, cat food, frozen handheld products, sweet baked goods, fruit and specialty spreads, portion control products, baking mixes and ingredients, toppings and syrups, dog food, cookies, frozen sandwiches and snacks, hot beverages, frozen handheld products, and flour. It provides its products under the Folgers, Caf\u00e9 Bustelo, Dunkin', Jif, Smucker's, Smucker's Uncrustables, Meow Mix, Milk-Bone, Pup-Peroni, Canine Carry Outs, Hostess, Voortman, 1850, Robin Hood, and Five Roses brands. The company sells its products through direct sales and brokers to food retailers, club stores, discount and dollar stores, online retailers, pet specialty stores, distributors, drug stores, military commissaries, mass merchandisers, supermarket chains, national mass retailers, convenience stores, vending channels, and foodservice distributors and operators. The J. M. Smucker Company was founded in 1897 and is headquartered in Orrville, Ohio.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SJM",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "102.03",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of SJM.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "APA",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will APA's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/APA for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "APA Corporation, an independent energy company, explores for, develops, and produces natural gas, crude oil, and natural gas liquids. It has oil and gas operations in the United States, Egypt, and North Sea. The company also has exploration and appraisal activities in Suriname, as well as holds interests in projects located in Uruguay and internationally. APA Corporation was incorporated in 1954 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/APA",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "23.14",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of APA.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "CNC",
                "XOM"
            ],
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "CNC",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will CNC's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CNC for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Centene Corporation operates as a healthcare enterprise that provides programs and services to under-insured and uninsured families, commercial organizations, and military families in the United States. The company operates through Medicaid, Medicare, Commercial, and Other segments. The Medicaid segment offers health plan coverage, including medicaid expansion, aged, blind, disabled, children's health insurance program, foster care, medicare-medicaid plans, long-term services and support. This segment also provides healthcare products. The Medicare segment offers special needs and medicare supplement, and prescription drug plans. The Commercial segment provides health insurance marketplace product for individual, small, and large group commercials. It also operates clinical healthcare and pharmacies, as well as offers dental and speech therapy services. In addition, the company engages in the government contracts business under the TRICARE program and other healthcare related government contracts. It provides services through primary and specialty care physicians, hospitals, and ancillary providers. Centene Corporation was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Saint Louis, Missouri.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CNC",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "56.86",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of CNC.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "XOM",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will XOM's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XOM for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Exxon Mobil Corporation engages in the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas in the United States and internationally. It operates through Upstream, Energy Products, Chemical Products, and Specialty Products segments. The Upstream segment explores for and produces crude oil and natural gas. The Energy Products segment offers fuels, aromatics, and catalysts, as well as licensing services. It sells its products under the Exxon, Esso, and Mobil brands. The Chemical Products segment manufactures and markets petrochemicals including olefins, polyolefins, and intermediates. The Specialty Products segment offers performance products, including lubricants, basestocks, waxes, synthetics, elastomers, and resins. The company also involves in the manufacturing, trade, transport, and sale of crude oil, natural gas, petroleum products, petrochemicals, and other specialty products; and pursuit lower-emission business opportunities, including carbon capture and storage, hydrogen, lower-emission fuels, and lithium. Exxon Mobil Corporation was founded in 1870 and is based in Spring, Texas.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XOM",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "108.24",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of XOM.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "PAYC",
                "UBER"
            ],
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "PAYC",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will PAYC's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PAYC for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Paycom Software, Inc. provides cloud-based human capital management (HCM) solution delivered as software-as-a-service for small to mid-sized companies in the United States. It offers functionality and data analytics that businesses need to manage the employment life cycle from recruitment to retirement. The company's HCM solution provides a suite of applications in the areas of talent acquisition, including applicant tracking, candidate tracker, background checks, on-boarding, e-verify, and tax credit services; and time and labor management, such as time and attendance, scheduling, time-off requests, labor allocation, labor management reports/push reporting, geofencing/geotracking, and Microfence, a proprietary Bluetooth. Its HCM solution also offers payroll applications comprising better employee transaction interface, payroll and tax management, payroll card, Everyday, Paycom pay, Client Action Center, expense management, mileage tracker/fixed and variable rates, garnishment administration, and GL concierge applications; and talent management applications that include employee self-service, compensation budgeting, performance management, position management, and Paycom learning, as well as my analytics. In addition, its HCM solution provides manager on-the-go that gives supervisors and managers the ability to perform a variety of tasks, such as approving time-off requests and expense reimbursements; direct data exchange; ask here, a tool for direct line of communication to ask work-related questions; document and checklist; government and compliance; benefits administration/benefits to carrier; benefit enrollment service; COBRA administration; personnel action and performance discussion forms; surveys; 401(k) reporting; report center; and affordable care act applications, as well as Clue, which securely collects, tracks, and manages the vaccination and testing data of the workforce. Paycom Software, Inc. was founded in 1998 and is based in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PAYC",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "209.22",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of PAYC.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "UBER",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will UBER's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/UBER for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Uber Technologies, Inc. develops and operates proprietary technology applications in the United States, Canada, Latin America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. It operates through three segments: Mobility, Delivery, and Freight. The Mobility segment connects consumers with a range of transportation modalities, such as ridesharing, carsharing, micromobility, rentals, public transit, taxis, and other modalities; and offers riders in a variety of vehicle types, as well as financial partnerships products and advertising services. The Delivery segment allows consumers to search for and discover restaurants to grocery, alcohol, convenience, and other retails, as well as order a meal or other items, and either pick-up at the restaurant or have it delivered; and provides Uber direct, a white-label delivery-as-a-service for retailers and restaurants, as well as advertising services. The Freight segment manages transportation and logistics network, which connects shippers and carriers in digital marketplace, including carriers upfronts, pricing, and shipment booking; and offers on-demand platform to automate logistics end-to-end transactions for small-and medium-sized business to global enterprises. The company was formerly known as Ubercab, Inc. and changed its name to Uber Technologies, Inc. in February 2011. Uber Technologies, Inc. was founded in 2009 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/UBER",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "79.42",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of UBER.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "AIZ",
                "AMAT"
            ],
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "AIZ",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will AIZ's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AIZ for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Assurant, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides business services that supports, protects, and connects consumer purchases in North America, Latin America, Europe, and the Asia Pacific. The company operates through two segments: Global Lifestyle and Global Housing. The Global Lifestyle segment offers mobile device solutions, and extended service contracts and related services for consumer electronics and appliances, and credit and other insurance products; and vehicle protection, commercial equipment, and other related services. The Global Housing segment provides lender-placed homeowners, manufactured housing, and flood insurance; renters insurance and related products; and voluntary manufactured housing, and condominium and homeowners insurance products. The company was formerly known as Fortis, Inc. and changed its name to Assurant, Inc. in February 2004. Assurant, Inc. was founded in 1892 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AIZ",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "202.96",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of AIZ.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "AMAT",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will AMAT's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMAT for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Applied Materials, Inc. engages in the provision of manufacturing equipment, services, and software to the semiconductor, display, and related industries. The company operates through three segments: Semiconductor Systems, Applied Global Services, and Display. The Semiconductor Systems segment develops, manufactures, and sells semiconductor capital equipment that is used to fabricate semiconductor chips or integrated circuits. The Applied Global Services segment provides integrated solutions to optimize equipment and fab performance and productivity comprising spares, upgrades, services, and other equipment and factory automation software for semiconductor, display, and other products. The Display segment offers products for manufacturing liquid crystal displays; organic light-emitting diodes; and other display technologies for TVs, monitors, laptops, personal computers, smart phones, and other consumer-oriented devices and solar energy cells. It operates in the United States, China, Korea, Taiwan, Japan, Southeast Asia, Europe, and internationally. The company was incorporated in 1967 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, California.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMAT",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "169.2",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of AMAT.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "SJM",
                "ACGL"
            ],
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "SJM",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will SJM's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SJM for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "The J. M. Smucker Company manufactures and markets branded food and beverage products worldwide. It operates in four segments: U.S. Retail Coffee, U.S. Retail Frozen Handheld and Spreads, U.S. Retail Pet Foods, and Sweet Baked Snacks. The company offers coffee, pet snacks, peanut butter, cat food, frozen handheld products, sweet baked goods, fruit and specialty spreads, portion control products, baking mixes and ingredients, toppings and syrups, dog food, cookies, frozen sandwiches and snacks, hot beverages, frozen handheld products, and flour. It provides its products under the Folgers, Caf\u00e9 Bustelo, Dunkin', Jif, Smucker's, Smucker's Uncrustables, Meow Mix, Milk-Bone, Pup-Peroni, Canine Carry Outs, Hostess, Voortman, 1850, Robin Hood, and Five Roses brands. The company sells its products through direct sales and brokers to food retailers, club stores, discount and dollar stores, online retailers, pet specialty stores, distributors, drug stores, military commissaries, mass merchandisers, supermarket chains, national mass retailers, convenience stores, vending channels, and foodservice distributors and operators. The J. M. Smucker Company was founded in 1897 and is headquartered in Orrville, Ohio.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SJM",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "102.03",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of SJM.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "ACGL",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will ACGL's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ACGL for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Arch Capital Group Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance, reinsurance, and mortgage insurance products worldwide. The company's Insurance segment offers primary and excess casualty coverages; loss sensitive primary casualty insurance programs; directors' and officers' liability, errors and omissions liability, employment practices and fiduciary liability, crime, professional indemnity, and other financial related coverages; medical professional and general liability insurance coverages; and workers' compensation and umbrella liability, as well as commercial automobile and inland marine products. It also provides property, energy, marine, and aviation insurance; travel insurance; accident, disability, and medical plan insurance coverages; captive insurance programs; employer's liability; contract and commercial surety coverages; and collateral protection, debt cancellation, and service contract reimbursement products. This segment markets its products through a group of licensed independent retail and wholesale brokers. Its Reinsurance segment provides casualty reinsurance for third party liability exposures; marine and aviation; motor reinsurance, whole account multi-line treaties, cyber, trade credit, surety, accident and health, workers' compensation catastrophe, agriculture, trade credit, and political risk products; reinsurance protection for catastrophic losses, and personal lines and commercial property exposures; life reinsurance; casualty clash; and risk management solutions. This segment markets its reinsurance products through brokers. The company's Mortgage segment offers direct mortgage insurance and mortgage reinsurance. The company was founded in 1995 and is based in Pembroke, Bermuda.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ACGL",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "88.2",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of ACGL.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "ZBRA",
                "FSLR"
            ],
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "ZBRA",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will ZBRA's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ZBRA for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Zebra Technologies Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides enterprise asset intelligence solutions in the automatic identification and data capture solutions industry worldwide. It operates in two segments, Asset Intelligence & Tracking, and Enterprise Visibility & Mobility. The company designs, manufactures, and sells printers that produce labels, wristbands, tickets, receipts, and plastic cards; dye-sublimination thermal card printers that produce images, which are used for personal identification, access control, and financial transactions; radio frequency identification device (RFID) printers that encode data into passive RFID transponders; accessories and options for printers, including carrying cases, vehicle mounts, and battery chargers; stock and customized thermal labels, wristbands, receipts, ribbons, plastic cards, and RFID tags for printers; and electronic sensors and temperature-monitoring labels. It also provides various maintenance, technical support, repair, and managed and professional services; fixed readers, RFID enabled mobile computers, and RFID sleds; tags, sensors, exciters, middleware software, and application software; and physical inventory management solutions, and rugged and enterprise-grade mobile computing products and accessories, as well as real-time location systems and services. In addition, the company offers barcode scanners and imagers, RFID readers, industrial machine vision cameras, and fixed industrial scanners; workforce management, workflow execution and task management, and prescriptive analytics, as well as communications and collaboration solutions; and cloud-based software subscriptions, retail, and robotics automation solutions. The company serves retail and e-commerce, manufacturing, transportation and logistics, healthcare, public sector, and other industries through direct sales force and network of channel partners. The company was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in Lincolnshire, Illinois.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ZBRA",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "318.36",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of ZBRA.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "FSLR",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will FSLR's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FSLR for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "First Solar, Inc., a solar technology company, provides photovoltaic (PV) solar energy solutions in the United States, France, Japan, Chile, and internationally. The company manufactures and sells PV solar modules with a thin film semiconductor technology that provides a lower-carbon alternative to conventional crystalline silicon PV solar modules. It designs, manufactures, and sells cadmium telluride solar modules that converts sunlight into electricity. The company's residual business operations include project development activities, operations and maintenance services, and the sale of PV solar power systems to third-party customers. It serves developers and operators of systems, utilities, independent power producers, commercial and industrial companies, and other system owners. The company was formerly known as First Solar Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to First Solar, Inc. in 2006. First Solar, Inc. was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Tempe, Arizona.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FSLR",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "159.76",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of FSLR.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "BIO",
                "DOC"
            ],
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "BIO",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will BIO's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BIO for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Bio-Rad Laboratories, Inc. manufactures and distributes life science research and clinical diagnostic products in the United States, Europe, Asia, Canada, and Latin America. It operates through two segments, Life Science and Clinical Diagnostics. The company develops, manufactures, and markets instruments, systems, reagents, and consumables to separate, purify, characterize, and quantitate biological materials such as cells, proteins, and nucleic acids for proteomics, genomics, biopharmaceutical production, cellular biology, and food safety markets. It also designs, manufactures, markets, and supports test systems, informatics systems, test kits, and specialized quality controls for hospitals, diagnostic reference, transfusion, and physician office laboratories. The company offers its products through its direct sales force, as well as through distributors, agents, brokers, and resellers. Bio-Rad Laboratories, Inc. was founded in 1952 and is headquartered in Hercules, California.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BIO",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "277.16",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of BIO.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "DOC",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will DOC's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DOC for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Healthpeak Properties, Inc. is a fully integrated real estate investment trust (REIT) and S&P 500 company. Healthpeak owns, operates, and develops high-quality real estate focused on healthcare discovery and delivery.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DOC",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "19.59",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of DOC.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "PNW",
                "EQR"
            ],
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "PNW",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will PNW's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PNW for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Pinnacle West Capital Corporation, through its subsidiary, provides retail and wholesale electric services primarily in the state of Arizona. The company engages in the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity using coal, nuclear, gas, oil, and solar generating facilities. Its transmission facilities include overhead lines and underground lines; and distribution facilities consist of overhead lines and underground primary cables. The company also owns and maintains transmission and distribution substations; and owns energy storage facilities. Pinnacle West Capital Corporation was incorporated in 1985 and is headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PNW",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "89.26",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of PNW.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "EQR",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will EQR's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/EQR for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Equity Residential is committed to creating communities where people thrive. The Company, a member of the S&P 500, is focused on the acquisition, development and management of residential properties located in and around dynamic cities that attract affluent long-term renters. Equity Residential owns or has investments in 311 properties consisting of 84,249 apartment units, with an established presence in Boston, New York, Washington, D.C., Seattle, San Francisco and Southern California, and an expanding presence in Denver, Atlanta, Dallas/Ft. Worth and Austin.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/EQR",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "71.23",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of EQR.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "RJF",
                "CHD"
            ],
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "RJF",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will RJF's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RJF for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Raymond James Financial, Inc., a diversified financial services company, provides private client group, capital markets, asset management, banking, and other services to individuals, corporations, and municipalities in the United States, Canada, and Europe. The Private Client Group segment offers investment services, portfolio management services, insurance and annuity products, and mutual funds; support to third-party mutual fund and annuity companies, including sales and marketing support, as well as distribution and accounting, and administrative services; margin loans; securities borrowing and lending services; diversification strategies and alternative investment products; and custodial, trade execution, research, and other support and services. The Capital Markets segment provides investment banking services, such as equity and debt underwriting, and merger and acquisition advisory services; and fixed income and equity brokerage services. This segment also offers institutional sales, securities trading, equity research, and the syndication and management of investments in low-income housing funds and funds of a similar nature. The Asset Management segment provides asset management, portfolio management, and related administrative services to retail and institutional clients; and administrative support services, such as record-keeping. The Bank segment offers various types of loans, including securities-based, commercial and industrial, commercial real estate and construction, real estate investment trust, residential mortgage, and tax-exempt loans; insured deposit accounts; retail and corporate deposit; and liquidity management products and services. The Other segment engages in the private equity investments comprising invests in third-party funds. Raymond James Financial, Inc. was founded in 1962 and is headquartered in Saint Petersburg, Florida.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RJF",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "159.84",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of RJF.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "CHD",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will CHD's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CHD for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Church & Dwight Co., Inc. develops, manufactures, and markets household, personal care, and specialty products. It operates in three segments: Consumer Domestic, Consumer International, and Specialty Products Division. The company offers cat litters, carpet deodorizers, laundry detergents, and baking soda, as well as other baking soda based products under the ARM & HAMMER brand; condoms, lubricants, and vibrators under the TROJAN brand; stain removers, cleaning solutions, laundry detergents, and bleach alternatives under the OXICLEAN brand; toothbrushes under the SPINBRUSH brand; home pregnancy and ovulation test kits under the FIRST RESPONSE brand; depilatories under the NAIR brand; oral analgesics under the ORAJEL brand; laundry detergents under the XTRA brand; gummy dietary supplements under the L'IL CRITTERS and VITAFUSION brands; dry shampoos under the BATISTE brand; water flossers and showerheads under the WATERPIK brand; cold shortening and relief products under the ZICAM brand; oral care products under the THERABREATH brand; and acne treatment products under the HERO brand. Its specialty products include animal and food productivity products, such as ARM & HAMMER baking soda as a feed additive to help dairy cow; BIO-CHLOR and FERMENTEN used to reduce health issues associated with calving, as well as needed protein; CELMANAX refined functional carbohydrate, a yeast-based prebiotic; and CERTILLUS a probiotics products used in the poultry, dairy, beef, and swine industries. It offers sodium bicarbonate; and cleaning and deodorizing products. The company sells its consumer products through supermarkets, mass merchandisers, wholesale clubs, drugstores, convenience stores, home stores, dollar and other discount stores, pet and other specialty stores, and websites and other e-commerce channels; and specialty products to industrial customers and livestock producers through distributors. The company was founded in 1846 and is headquartered in Ewing, New Jersey.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CHD",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "105.0",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of CHD.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "DUK",
                "CRM"
            ],
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "DUK",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will DUK's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DUK for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Duke Energy Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an energy company in the United States. It operates through two segments: Electric Utilities and Infrastructure (EU&I), and Gas Utilities and Infrastructure (GU&I). The EU&I segment generates, transmits, distributes, and sells electricity in the Carolinas, Florida, and the Midwest. It generates electricity through coal, hydroelectric, natural gas, oil, solar and wind sources, renewables, and nuclear fuel. This segment also engages in the wholesale of electricity to municipalities, electric cooperative utilities, and load-serving entities. The GU&I segment distributes natural gas to residential, commercial, industrial, and power generation natural gas customers; and invests in pipeline transmission projects, renewable natural gas projects, and natural gas storage facilities. The company was formerly known as Duke Energy Holding Corp. and changed its name to Duke Energy Corporation in April 2006. Duke Energy Corporation was founded in 1904 and is headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DUK",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "111.6",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of DUK.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "CRM",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will CRM's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CRM for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Salesforce, Inc. provides Customer Relationship Management (CRM) technology that brings companies and customers together worldwide. The company's service includes sales to store data, monitor leads and progress, forecast opportunities, gain insights through analytics and artificial intelligence, and deliver quotes, contracts, and invoices; and service that enables companies to deliver trusted and highly personalized customer support at scale. In addition, its platform offering comprise a flexible platform that enables companies of various sizes, locations, and industries to build business workflow and apps with customer; online learning platform that allows anyone to learn in-demand Salesforce skills; and Slack, an intelligent productivity platform. The company's marketing services enables companies to plan, personalize, automate, and optimize customer marketing journey, connecting interaction, and connected products; and commerce services, which empowers shopping experience across various customer touchpoint, such as mobile, web, social, and stores and provides click-to-code tools that offers customers to build and deploy solutions. Further, its analytics offering includes Tableau, an end-to-end analytics solution for range of enterprise use cases and intelligent analytics with AI models, spot trends, predict outcomes, creates summaries, timely recommendations, and take action from any device; and integration service including MuleSoft, which provides building blocks to deliver end-to-end and connected experiences. Additionally, the company provides data cloud, a hyperscale data engine native to Salesforce; vertical services to meet the needs of customers in industries, such as financial services, healthcare and life sciences, manufacturing and automotive and government; and offers salesforce starter for small and medium-sized businesses. Salesforce, Inc. was incorporated in 1999 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CRM",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "326.54",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of CRM.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "WTW",
                "XOM"
            ],
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "WTW",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will WTW's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/WTW for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Willis Towers Watson Public Limited Company operates as an advisory, broking, and solutions company worldwide. It operates through two segments: Health, Wealth & Career and Risk & Broking. The company offers strategy and design consulting, plan management service and support, broking and administration services for health, wellbeing, and other group benefit program, including medical, dental, disability, life, voluntary benefits and other coverages; actuarial support, plan design, and administrative services for pension and retirement savings plans; retirement consulting services and solutions; and integrated solutions that consists of investment discretionary management, pension administration, core actuarial, and communication and change management assistance services. It also provides advice, data, software, and products to address clients' total rewards and talent issues; and risk advice, insurance brokerage, and consulting services in the areas of property and casualty, affinity, risk and analytics, aerospace, construction, global markets direct & facultative, financial, executive and professional risks, financial solutions, crisis management, surety, marine, and natural resources. In addition, the company offers integrated solutions that consists of investment discretionary management, pension administration, core actuarial, and communication and change management assistance services; and software and technology, risk and capital management, products and product pricing, financial and regulatory reporting, financial and capital modeling, M&A, outsourcing, and business management services. The company was formerly known as Willis Group Holdings Public Limited Company and changed its name to Willis Towers Watson Public Limited Company in January 2016. Willis Towers Watson Public Limited Company was founded in 1828 and is based in London, the United Kingdom.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/WTW",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "320.4",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of WTW.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "XOM",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will XOM's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XOM for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Exxon Mobil Corporation engages in the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas in the United States and internationally. It operates through Upstream, Energy Products, Chemical Products, and Specialty Products segments. The Upstream segment explores for and produces crude oil and natural gas. The Energy Products segment offers fuels, aromatics, and catalysts, as well as licensing services. It sells its products under the Exxon, Esso, and Mobil brands. The Chemical Products segment manufactures and markets petrochemicals including olefins, polyolefins, and intermediates. The Specialty Products segment offers performance products, including lubricants, basestocks, waxes, synthetics, elastomers, and resins. The company also involves in the manufacturing, trade, transport, and sale of crude oil, natural gas, petroleum products, petrochemicals, and other specialty products; and pursuit lower-emission business opportunities, including carbon capture and storage, hydrogen, lower-emission fuels, and lithium. Exxon Mobil Corporation was founded in 1870 and is based in Spring, Texas.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XOM",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "108.24",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of XOM.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "NDSN",
                "HAS"
            ],
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "NDSN",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will NDSN's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NDSN for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Nordson Corporation engineers, manufactures, and markets products and systems to dispense, apply, and control adhesives, coatings, polymers, sealants, biomaterials, and other fluids. It operates through three segments: Industrial Precision Solutions; Medical and Fluid Solutions; and Advanced Technology Solutions. The Industrial Precision Solutions segment provides dispensing, coating, and laminating systems for adhesives, lotions, liquids, and fibers to disposable products and roll goods; automated adhesive dispensing systems used in packaged goods industries; components and systems for thermoplastic and biopolymer melt stream; fluid components, such as nozzles, pumps, and filters; smart components that measure and control the flow, quantity and location of dispensed fluid; control systems; and dispensing, coating, and laminating systems. It also offers automated and manual dispensing products and systems for cold materials, container coating, liquid finishing, and powder coating, as well as ultraviolet equipment used in curing and drying operations; and in-line measurement sensors, gauges and analyzers, lasers, X-ray, optical and nucleonic technologies, and proprietary algorithms and software. The Medical and Fluid Solutions segment offers cannulas, catheters, and medical balloons; single-use plastic components; precision manual and semi-automated dispensers; and plastic molded syringes, cartridges, tips, and fluid connection components. The Advanced Technology Solutions segment provides automated dispensing systems for fluids attachment, protection, and coating, as well as related gas plasma treatment systems for cleaning and conditioning surfaces; and bond testing and automated optical, acoustic microscopy, and x-ray inspection systems for semiconductor and printed circuit board industries. The company markets its products through direct sales force, distributors, and sales representatives. The company was founded in 1909 and is headquartered in Westlake, Ohio.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NDSN",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "216.42",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of NDSN.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "HAS",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will HAS's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HAS for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Hasbro, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a toy and game company in the United States, Europe, Canada, Mexico, Latin America, Australia, China, and Hong Kong. The company operates through Consumer Products; Wizards of the Coast and Digital Gaming; Entertainment; and Corporate and Other segments. The Consumer Products segment engages in the sourcing, marketing, and sale of toy and game products. This segment also promotes its brands through the out-licensing of trademarks, characters, and other brand and intellectual property rights to third parties through the sale of branded consumer products, such as toys and apparel. Its toys and games include action figures, arts and crafts and creative play products, dolls, play sets, preschool toys, plush products, sports action blasters and accessories, vehicles and toy-related specialty products, games, and other consumer products; and licensed products, such as apparel, publishing products, home goods and electronics, and toy products. The Wizards of the Coast and Digital Gaming segment engages in the promotion of its brands through the development of trading cards, role-playing, and digital game experiences based on Hasbro and Wizards of the Coast games. The Entertainment segment engages in the development, production, and sale of entertainment content, including film, television, children's programming, digital content, and live entertainment. The company sells its products to retailers, distributors, wholesalers, discount stores, specialty hobby stores, drug stores, mail order houses, catalog stores, department stores, and other traditional retailers, as well as e-commerce retailers; and directly to customers through its e-commerce websites under the MAGIC: THE GATHERING, Hasbro Gaming, PLAY-DOH, NERF, TRANSFORMERS, DUNGEONS & DRAGONS, PEPPA PIG, and other brand names. Hasbro, Inc. was founded in 1923 and is headquartered in Pawtucket, Rhode Island.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HAS",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "60.82",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of HAS.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        },
        {
            "id": [
                "IQV",
                "HBAN"
            ],
            "source": "yfinance",
            "question": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "background": "N/A",
            "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
            "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
            "url": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
            "freeze_datetime_value": "N/A",
            "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "N/A",
            "source_intro": "We are presenting you with two probability questions. Please predict the probability that both will happen, that one will happen but not the other, and that neither will happen. In other words, for each resolution date please provide 4 predictions.",
            "combination_of": [
                {
                    "id": "IQV",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will IQV's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IQV for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "IQVIA Holdings Inc. provides clinical research services, commercial insights, and healthcare intelligence to the life sciences and healthcare industries in the Americas, Europe, Africa, and the Asia-Pacific. It operates through three segments: Technology & Analytics Solutions, Research & Development Solutions, and Contract Sales & Medical Solutions. The Technology & Analytics Solutions segment offers a range of cloud-based applications and related implementation services; real world solutions that enable life sciences and provider customers to generate and disseminate evidence, which informs health care decision making and improves patients' outcomes; and strategic and implementation consulting services, such as advanced analytics and commercial processes outsourcing services. This segment also provides country level performance metrics related to sales of pharmaceutical products, prescribing trends, medical treatment, and promotional activity across various channels, including retail, hospital, and mail order; and measurement of sales or prescribing activity at the regional, zip code, and individual prescriber level. The Research & Development Solutions segment offers project management and clinical monitoring; clinical trial support; strategic planning and design services; and patient and site centric solutions, as well as central laboratory, genomic, bioanalytical, ADME, discovery, and vaccine and biomarker laboratory services. The Contract Sales & Medical Solutions segment provides health care provider and patient engagement services, and scientific strategy and medical affairs services. It serves pharmaceutical, biotechnology, device and diagnostic, and consumer health companies. The company was formerly known as Quintiles IMS Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to IQVIA Holdings Inc. in November 2017. The company is based in Durham, North Carolina.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IQV",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "193.44",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of IQV.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                },
                {
                    "id": "HBAN",
                    "source": "yfinance",
                    "question": "Will HBAN's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.",
                    "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to the market close price at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HBAN for the resolution date. If the resolution date coincides with a day the market is closed (weekend, holiday, etc.) the previous market close price is used.",
                    "background": "Huntington Bancshares Incorporated operates as the bank holding company for The Huntington National Bank that provides commercial, consumer, and mortgage banking services in the United States. The company offers financial products and services to consumer and business customers, including deposits, lending, payments, mortgage banking, dealer financing, investment management, trust, brokerage, insurance, and other financial products and services. It also provides 24-hour grace, asterisk-free checking, money scout, $50 safety zone, standby cash, early pay, instant access, savings goal getter, and Huntington heads up; digitally powered consumer and business financial solutions to consumer lending, regional banking, branch banking, and wealth management customers; direct and indirect consumer loans, as well as dealer finance loans and deposits; and private banking, wealth management and legacy planning through investment and portfolio management, fiduciary administration and trust, institutional custody, and full-service retail brokerage investment services. The company offers equipment financing, asset-based lending, distribution finance, structured lending, and municipal financing solutions, as well as Huntington ChoicePay. In addition, it offers lending, liquidity, treasury management and other payment services, and capital markets; government and non-profits, healthcare, technology and telecommunications, franchises, financial sponsors, and global services; and corporate risk management, institutional sales and trading, debt and equity issuance, and additional advisory services. The company offers its products through a network of channels, including branches and ATMs, online and mobile banking, and through customer call centers to customers in middle market banking, corporate, specialty, and government banking, asset finance, commercial real estate banking, and capital markets. The company was founded in 1866 and is headquartered in Columbus, Ohio.",
                    "market_info_open_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_close_datetime": "N/A",
                    "market_info_resolution_criteria": "N/A",
                    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HBAN",
                    "freeze_datetime": "2025-02-20T00:00:00+00:00",
                    "freeze_datetime_value": "16.73",
                    "freeze_datetime_value_explanation": "The latest market close price of HBAN.",
                    "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.",
                    "combination_of": "N/A",
                    "resolution_dates": "N/A"
                }
            ],
            "resolution_dates": [
                "2025-03-09",
                "2025-04-01",
                "2025-05-31",
                "2025-08-29",
                "2026-03-02",
                "2028-03-01",
                "2030-03-01",
                "2035-02-28"
            ]
        }
    ]
}