{ "cells": [ { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "---\n", "title: La Palma Earthquakes\n", "author:\n", " - name: Steve Purves\n", " orcid: 0000-0002-0760-5497\n", " corresponding: true\n", " email: steve@curvenote.com\n", " roles:\n", " - Investigation\n", " - Project administration\n", " - Software\n", " - Visualization\n", " affiliations:\n", " - Curvenote\n", " - name: Rowan Cockett\n", " orcid: 0000-0002-7859-8394\n", " corresponding: false\n", " roles: []\n", " affiliations:\n", " - Curvenote\n", "keywords:\n", " - La Palma\n", " - Earthquakes\n", "abstract: |\n", " In September 2021, a significant jump in seismic activity on the island of La Palma (Canary Islands, Spain) signaled the start of a volcanic crisis that still continues at the time of writing. Earthquake data is continually collected and published by the Instituto Geográphico Nacional (IGN). ...\n", "plain-language-summary: |\n", " Earthquake data for the island of La Palma from the September 2021 eruption is found ...\n", "key-points:\n", " - A web scraping script was developed to pull data from the Instituto Geogràphico Nacional into a machine-readable form for analysis\n", " - Earthquake events on La Palma are consistent with the presence of both mantle and crustal reservoirs.\n", "date: last-modified\n", "bibliography: references.bib\n", "citation:\n", " container-title: Earth and Space Science\n", "number-sections: true\n", "---" ] }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": { "tags": [] }, "source": [ "## Introduction\n" ] }, { "cell_type": "code", "execution_count": 1, "metadata": { "tags": [] }, "outputs": [], "source": [ "import matplotlib.pyplot as plt\n", "import numpy as np\n", "eruptions = [1492, 1585, 1646, 1677, 1712, 1949, 1971, 2021]" ] }, { "cell_type": "code", "execution_count": 2, "metadata": { "tags": [] }, "outputs": [ { "data": { "image/png": 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"text/plain": [ "
" ] }, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "display_data" } ], "source": [ "#| label: fig-timeline\n", "#| fig-cap: Timeline of recent earthquakes on La Palma\n", "#| fig-alt: An event plot of the years of the last 8 eruptions on La Palma.\n", "\n", "plt.figure(figsize=(6, 1))\n", "plt.eventplot(eruptions, lineoffsets=0, linelengths=0.1, color='black')\n", "plt.gca().axes.get_yaxis().set_visible(False)\n", "plt.ylabel('')\n", "plt.show()" ] }, { "cell_type": "code", "execution_count": 3, "metadata": { "tags": [] }, "outputs": [ { "data": { "text/plain": [ "79.83333333333333" ] }, "execution_count": 3, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "execute_result" } ], "source": [ "#| output: false\n", "avg_years_between_eruptions = np.mean(np.diff(eruptions[:-1]))\n", "avg_years_between_eruptions" ] }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "Based on data up to and including 1971, eruptions on La Palma happen every 79.8 years on average." ] }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "Studies of the magma systems feeding the volcano, such as @marrero2019, have proposed that there are two main magma reservoirs feeding the Cumbre Vieja volcano; one in the mantle (30-40km depth) which charges and in turn feeds a shallower crustal reservoir (10-20km depth)." ] }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "Eight eruptions have been recorded since the late 1400s (@fig-timeline)." ] }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "Data and methods are discussed in @sec-data-methods." ] }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "Let $x$ denote the number of eruptions in a year. Then, $x$ can be modeled by a Poisson distribution\n", "\n", "$$\n", "p(x) = \\frac{e^{-\\lambda} \\lambda^{x}}{x !}\n", "$$ {#eq-poisson}\n", "\n", "where $\\lambda$ is the rate of eruptions per year. Using @eq-poisson, the probability of an eruption in the next $t$ years can be calculated." ] }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "| Name | Year |\n", "| -------------------- | ------ |\n", "| Current | 2021 |\n", "| Teneguía | 1971 |\n", "| Nambroque | 1949 |\n", "| El Charco | 1712 |\n", "| Volcán San Antonio | 1677 |\n", "| Volcán San Martin | 1646 |\n", "| Tajuya near El Paso | 1585 |\n", "| Montaña Quemada | 1492 |\n", "\n", ": Recent historic eruptions on La Palma {#tbl-history}\n", "\n", "@tbl-history summarises the eruptions recorded since the colonization of the islands by Europeans in the late 1400s." ] }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "![Map of La Palma](images/la-palma-map.png){#fig-map}\n", "\n", "La Palma is one of the west most islands in the Volcanic Archipelago of the Canary Islands (@fig-map). " ] }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "{{< embed notebooks/data-screening.ipynb#fig-spatial-plot >}}\n", "\n", "@fig-spatial-plot shows the location of recent Earthquakes on La Palma." ] }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "## Data & Methods {#sec-data-methods}" ] }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "## Conclusion" ] }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "## References {.unnumbered}\n", "\n", ":::{#refs}\n", "\n", ":::" ] } ], "metadata": { "kernelspec": { "display_name": "Python 3 (ipykernel)", "language": "python", "name": "python3" }, "language_info": { "codemirror_mode": { "name": "ipython", "version": 3 }, "file_extension": ".py", "mimetype": "text/x-python", "name": "python", "nbconvert_exporter": "python", "pygments_lexer": "ipython3", "version": "3.11.4" } }, "nbformat": 4, "nbformat_minor": 4 }