RealisedGains Investing 12 January 2022 21:50 UTC+08:00 We're looking at a possible breakout, start closing shorts & look for shorts at 45. 9-46. 5-47. 5k for $BTC. Ladder your 1st entries at resistance there. Heavier at the end. Entry: 46. 5-47. 4kStop Loss: 47. 8kTP1: TBD watch the rejection RealisedGains Investing 16 January 2022 17:31 UTC+08:00 16th January 2022: $AXS should go up from 65. 89 to 94. 36, $BTC should go from 43k region to 46. 8 - 46. 9k resistance region. Unknown 16 January 2022 17:37 UTC+08:00 I don't believe this movement to be a genuine movement, at least on ALTs, this will just be a short squeeze where futures prices move the spot prices and the spot prices just move up because order books are thin. RealisedGains Investing 17 January 2022 15:16 UTC+08:00 A lot of Crypto NFT/Gaming Coins like Mines of Dalarnia (DAR) will go to zero with this drop, even if BTC bounces, I don't expect worthless games to hold any value. If you're waiting for a relief bounce to sell, I would say don't hold your breath. RealisedGains Investing 17 January 2022 18:19 UTC+08:00 pivotal point here, we ran the stops at 42. 6k, if we can hold this 42k region, we're looking at 46. 5 - 47. 2k. decent r:r for a long with a tight stop! RealisedGains Investing 18 January 2022 01:50 UTC+08:00 https://www. straitstimes. com/business/companies-markets/crypto-trading-should-not-be-promoted-to-the-public-under-new-mas-guidelines RealisedGains Investing 18 January 2022 10:26 UTC+08:00 You want to buy the next dip, I am targeting 37. 8 - 38. 5 for longs, and 35. 6 for heavy leveraged longs. . . RealisedGains Investing 21 January 2022 12:56 UTC+08:00 i'm in fyi RealisedGains Investing RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 13:14 UTC+08:00 Closed my shorts from 52k flipped longs at 37. 8-38. 5k. Will try to update more here! Unknown RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 13:25 UTC+08:00 Unknown RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 13:25 UTC+08:00 Closed shorts, entered long. Watching other markets now! RealisedGains Investing RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 15:08 UTC+08:00 said this a day ago. exactly where i was targeting. watching it right now. hope for a break above 39k then we shift our stop losses at entry. try to control your leverage ✌🏻 Unknown RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 15:13 UTC+08:00 21th JanLong 37. 8 to 38. 5 regionStart closing at Resistance- 39. 2-39. 2 (1st TP) 40% CloseRemainder 60% put with a trailing stop loss as we attempt to run up to the lower probability (2nd TP)- 40. 7-40. 9 (2nd TP) 40% CloseLast TP for all would be 46/47k and 53/55kTo me (1st TP) is a very high probabilistic play. I am not touching much alts at the moment, but that’s because considering my size isn’t small, i will have to deal with too much slippage issues. Will advise differently for smaller portfolios. Alternatively ETH can also be done with this ranges. Will update on Stocks & Commodities later! Unknown RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 15:13 UTC+08:00 this is how i am trading it and shouldn't be seen as financial advice btw. do your own analysis! RealisedGains Investing RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 15:48 UTC+08:00 In my longs still from 38. 4k average. In future, I won't post my actual entries but since it's still small will just share right now. Looking for closes at the 2 regions stated above : )Anyway, hope you guys don’t see this as a signals group. I don’t want to do that, just gonna share my own positions & market insights more freely here. RealisedGains Investing RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 16:05 UTC+08:00 Taking some profits at 39. 1 - 39. 3 region as I stated. Will teach you guys how to ladder out exits as well. Then change to a trailing stop loss to de-risk. Depending on how you guys like to trade - for me, I honestly only touch my positions once every 1-2 weeks. But during that few hours period I tend to be a little more active (like now) to protect my positions/entries. Unknown RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 16:13 UTC+08:00 i'm out, shifted it a little bit, but generally this is 1st resistance. same plan as above! in future, i will give less direct ideas, but generally my ideas for long term do pan out. might consider doing live streams instead, very difficult to manage both. also it's more important for me to manage my positions as opposed to maintain the group chat. cause i'm dealing with significant size. just sharing for fun ✌🏻 Unknown RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 16:14 UTC+08:00 got the exact pico top at 39278 😅 Unknown RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 16:20 UTC+08:00 For US Stocks, probably holding my $MLCO and cutting $CLOV, I think the latter has a little bit more to the bottom and I haven't done enough FA on it. $CLOV is a decent buy at $2. 50 - $2. 60 for a relief bounce. Let me research and update tonight. RealisedGains Investing RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 17:51 UTC+08:00 (Crypto) How I am managing this range is basically using my previous profits I took at 39. 2 from 38. 4 as a buffer for current positions. Still in some longs with a trailing stop loss. Will come up with some Udemy materials and guides soon! Was very patient waiting for this 38k region and that's how you should be in these markets 🤙🏻 Bigger resistance range is still as mentioned at the 40. 7 - 40. 9k region, got some serious liquidity to tap there. RealisedGains Investing RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 21:29 UTC+08:00 ($BTC) Still holding, added more at 37. 8k bottom of range. DCA-ed down & have some buffer due to the 39. 2k sells. RealisedGains Investing RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 23:39 UTC+08:00 Market is down bad today. . . but I hope you guys came out unscathed, i'm just starting to enter on some of my stocks! It was to be expected but I think February will provide very good relief. 30 Days Tax Harvesting Wash Rule ends on 31th January btw. Should be due for some bounces on oversold counters! RealisedGains Investing 22 January 2022 00:06 UTC+08:00 Hope this holds, looking for the 2nd resistance for TP here! 40. 7 - 40. 8! As long as we stay in this support region, I think Crypto Markets will bounce! RealisedGains Investing 22 January 2022 12:08 UTC+08:00 Final Support line at 35. 6, I added some here. Slowly laddering. Control your leverage and de-risk or stop out if need be! Unknown 22 January 2022 12:23 UTC+08:00 Normally my longs I do 0. 5-1x Leverage & for heavier leverage longs I do 1. 5-2. 5x. My average buy price is now 36. 4k. Even if yours isn't as optimal as long as you don't overleverage, you should be fine long run. Markets don't fall endlessly 👌🏼 Just understand how to DCA & Ladder! RealisedGains Investing 22 January 2022 22:17 UTC+08:00 Like I said on 17th December above, if you are into NFT/Gaming Coins I think they have no value fundamentally. Coins like $DAR, $AXS will crash very very heavily. These have dropped 60-80% from ATH but BTC is only on a 50% drop. This is the reason I only buy $BTC, $ETH, or L1 coins if I am doing value investing. If you want to buy the dip, buy fundamental stuff. A lot of things will die with this pullback. RealisedGains Investing 23 January 2022 03:12 UTC+08:00 I would say to stay calm at these prices, I don't think we go to 20s, I think we hold here in the 30s for awhile before we get a relief short squeeze back to 37. 8k - 38. 8k (this might be a chance to exit or take profits), after that bounce we have to reassess if back in a bull market or consider the global situation to see if we enter a recession/hard correction. Funding is negative which is rare for most markets as it's normally a buyers market. Crypto/Stocks movements now actually rely heavily on the Russia Situation, Interest Rate Policies I believe. RealisedGains Investing 23 January 2022 03:35 UTC+08:00 Currently at range lows, not a bad position at 34. 4-34. 6k for $BTC to go for a long with a tight stop, resistances would be at 36. 3 (80% chance) and 37. 7-37. 9 (50% chance) for a near term relief if this region holds RealisedGains Investing 23 January 2022 05:02 UTC+08:00 still in my longs, really sleepy, update tmr. stay safe! RealisedGains Investing 23 January 2022 15:30 UTC+08:00 Holding my Crypto Positions, got some $SOL, $FTT on that dip, as well as still in long. $CLOV i am still laddering in, very very slowly around $2. 5-$2. 6, floor can be deep on this one! My rationale for stocks are to take a much longer swing as opposed to Crypto. Normally for Crypto I am more of a swing trader as I think the markets are much more volatile, you have to get in and out fast. For Stocks, I can normally do 3-5 months even to let my idea play out. RealisedGains Investing 23 January 2022 16:22 UTC+08:00 We squeezed to 36. 6k as I said! Unknown 23 January 2022 16:24 UTC+08:00 It squeezed to 36. 6 on futures but not on spot, such a quick squeeze on futures tends to be just a liquidity hunt, not actual demand or spot moving it. Unknown 23 January 2022 16:31 UTC+08:00 I still think the real resistance is above for a liquidity tap. This bearish pin bar on the 1 min might trap people to short. However, kinda dumb to short here imo. Poor R:R. Unknown 23 January 2022 16:37 UTC+08:00 I closed some at 36. 3 as I suggested earlier, I entered at 34. 3k actually. . . mainly just to derisk but still holding buy positions. Patience and chill! Hope you guys placed sell orders, that squeeze to 36. 3 was very very fast, less than a minute. RealisedGains Investing 23 January 2022 17:31 UTC+08:00 Still think we go to my 2nd resistance at 37. 7k, I will reassess the entire trend there. Watching Oil Markets now. . . If unsure, just put a trailing stop loss. Entry is good so just stay calm ✌🏼 RealisedGains Investing 23 January 2022 23:04 UTC+08:00 here's a good place to re-enter if you exited 36. 3k, 35. 1-35. 3k region with a stop loss under. Unknown 23 January 2022 23:06 UTC+08:00 if this doesn't hold, it could just range within this region, which is also something i'm expecting. but in general this is a very speculative style of trading doing daily candles. if you're doing a wider swing play lets say weekly/monthly, i think buying here for a longer term hold for a more chill, wider region play isn't bad either. ^ not sure if this makes sense. will explain it in a future video. RealisedGains Investing 24 January 2022 00:02 UTC+08:00 If you entered the 35. 1, watch the 35. 5-35. 6 region if we hold there or reject, this is another decent entry i believe but just be cautious with your stop loss. i generally don't day trade much tbh. just that after yesterday's big drop it's lucrative to play these ranges. I will probably go on a short hiatus after I'm done with these swing trades to wait for proper market conditions again. RealisedGains Investing 24 January 2022 07:19 UTC+08:00 Still in my buys. Should be still heading to 37. 7k regions, stay calm 👌🏼 This region is still a buy region in the larger time frames. You could technically just trade less actively, and just hold as well. So far the plan has been:Buy 34. 3 ✔️Sell 36. 3 ✔️Buy 35. 1 ✔️Look for sells 37. 7-38. 1 (50% chance) RealisedGains Investing RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 17:00 UTC+08:00 Think we are range bound here for awhile. Would not be taking shorts at these prices. It's basically long C with tight stop aim for range high at D to go for a short and place a stop. Do this 1-2 swings and get out if you are day/swing trading. You can only do this after a big movement and only for your first 2-3 swings. I would probably stop around Wednesday. Fridays tend to more volatile. My Bias now is long cause R:R for shorting simply isn't good. . . I think we should still relief to 37. 7k eventually, just be slow to ladder in positions you should be fine 👍🏼 RealisedGains Investing RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 19:25 UTC+08:00 we actually squeezed to 37. 8 on bitstamp, just fyi if you're spot and not futures don't attempt to liquidity hunt, both the spot and futures move differently across different exchanges. RealisedGains Investing 25 January 2022 02:18 UTC+08:00 lets go! on our way up finally - watch this exact move very carefully. . . lows are sweeped, this might give it the power to go to 37k Unknown 25 January 2022 02:18 UTC+08:00 generally if u see another exchange do this, it's bullish cause it will be followed by other exchanges as far as i noticed Unknown 25 January 2022 02:32 UTC+08:00 not saying we're bullish i didn't expect 33/34 regions to be hit as well. . . the macro trend has potentially turned bearish, however relief should be still expected either way, there's liquidity at 37k to be tapped; this region is where you can consider putting stop losses at invalidation RealisedGains Investing 25 January 2022 05:31 UTC+08:00 looking at 37k right now : ) hope y'all are still in with me on this! Unknown 25 January 2022 05:35 UTC+08:00 told you guys 37. 6 would be hit! RealisedGains Investing 25 January 2022 05:58 UTC+08:00 I suggest to derisk at the 37. 5-38. 1 region, that's what i'm doing with my positions. This is a resistance area. . . Hopefully you guys entered with me at 33. 3k. I only managed to get in at 33. 8k but that's cause with a larger size I face slippage issues so I can't snipe as well. . . RealisedGains Investing 25 January 2022 06:15 UTC+08:00 Quite interesting; I always notice this trend, I'll scour other exchanges or new options bids to confluence my ideas. Interesting how this squeeze on Bitstamp predated the movement on every other exchange subsequently that there would be a short squeeze. This has actually happened many times before. Bitcoin actually went to 8k a couple months back on a flash crash long squeeze on Binance US, that move also made me cautious and gave me confluence into predicting 66k was the top! Unknown 25 January 2022 06:20 UTC+08:00 already had my idea on this region 2 days back as you can see. but i tend to watch OI, liquidations and options ticker to find where to long exactly. 33. 3k just felt like max pain to me. most people expect a swing failure bottom and the low to not break past previous lows which is exactly the reason why it needs to do that, to bait breakout traders and then trap them to provide liquidity for impetus to push the subsequent run-up. on the opposite end, it did this at the top too, went to highs of 65k, drop, rise back to 69k and bait the most amount of breakout bullish investors, and then reject so harshly to 33k, trapping them indefinitely. its beautiful to see 😂 RealisedGains Investing 25 January 2022 12:36 UTC+08:00 think we double test the top region above 37k, watch that carefully, put a trailing SL, if you haven't got out, consider getting out later but potentially we might squeeze higher as well. i'm not shorting only looking for relongs with SL. Unknown 25 January 2022 12:37 UTC+08:00 these are prices you can look at CLOV & ABNB for relief bounces, but make sure you take profit later on. RealisedGains Investing 25 January 2022 13:00 UTC+08:00 i'm already out of my longs at 37k already btw, looking for lower. . . tonight there's the FOMC meeting for rate hikes. even if we retest 37k later i'm not buying back. not bullish but i will not take shorts, only longs with SL. looking at Gold ETFs tbh. Unknown 25 January 2022 13:01 UTC+08:00 for this it's not a buy-and-hold perhaps 1 week kind of swing. should bounce in a 1-2 weeks. nothing is a buy and hold in this market. not right now. . . RealisedGains Investing 25 January 2022 22:21 UTC+08:00 Next resistance for BTC would be 41. 2 - 41. 5, I would not mind gandering a small short there *if we get there* FOMC hearing this week, Powell discussing 4 interest rates hike this year, ideally means we still see 2022 as a very bad year for investing. Just be quick to cut. These are precarious times imo. RealisedGains Investing 25 January 2022 23:27 UTC+08:00 we did retest 37k i think earlier, 2nd rejection formed a swing failure top. shd sweep lows again, in any case i'll be watching fomc hearing before my next move. if we retest 33k another time, this is truly the make or break. i am freeing up dry powder from my bonds to buy into US stocks but not now. . . not yet! RealisedGains Investing 26 January 2022 12:52 UTC+08:00 if you exit at 37. 7k region as i suggested i think its ok to take 2-3 days off trading. sometimes not trading is a way to preserve wealth. i think we gotta wait till february. fomc hearing, earnings call, tax loss harvesting wash all happening i the next 2 days. Unknown 26 January 2022 13:00 UTC+08:00 i exited at 37. 3 haven't re-entered yet. Next time i'll be more patient with executing my numbers. . . I can see this going into 38. 1 even! Unknown 26 January 2022 13:03 UTC+08:00 37. 7-38. 8 as i mentioned above can be expected but we'll very likely reject very hard there back to 36k. I told you guys it was poor r:r to short back then at the lows. Here's somewhere you can potentially be short. However, I am inclined to be out till the start of February. I wanna read the hearing notes first. Also, with US Stocks it's hard to pick a floor. Some are really way overvalued $PLTR $TSLA. . . RealisedGains Investing 26 January 2022 15:42 UTC+08:00 if we can hold these prices and feds dont cut spending immediately i think we get a decent bounce. RealisedGains Investing 26 January 2022 18:25 UTC+08:00 they just keep delaying the inevitable. . . huge news if they raise interest rates, this will pullback the market very significantly. 8 more hours to the announcement! they honestly can't do this much longer. 2022 doesn't bode well for stocks, better to be a trader than an investor this year imo. RealisedGains Investing 26 January 2022 22:07 UTC+08:00 this is potentially a strong resistance depending on the interest rate news Unknown 26 January 2022 22:09 UTC+08:00 as i said 3 days back we won't break into 20k, we'll squeeze to 38. 5k 🤙🏼 now time to watch the fomc news! RealisedGains Investing 26 January 2022 22:27 UTC+08:00 i realised this chat has like 25 subscribers but some of these messages are viewed by more than 25 subscribers 😤 who's leaking my alpha 😂anyway, this is not a signals group as i mentioned. just giving y'all some directions. please don't follow blindly. so far so good, but take onus over your own decisions & do your own DD (due diligence)👌🏼 i'll normally post less. just that we are in precarious times right now, so i'm watching more actively! Unknown 26 January 2022 22:36 UTC+08:00 expecting $151/152 for $ABNB and a squeeze potentially to $2. 80 or even $3. 20 for $CLOV. Depending on the hearing. . . It looks like very little but believe me when prices are these low a $0. 30 move is 10%, sprinkle a little options and that's 20-30% profits Unknown 26 January 2022 22:37 UTC+08:00 I expect Feds to SAY they will delay tapering till March but this is just to quell the market fears. It's very unsustainable to do this, they'll probably alay concerns through lip service and still end up raising interest rates sooner than March. tldr; small bounce then still down, don't think 2022 is good for a lot of stocks esp speculative growth ones. . . RealisedGains Investing 27 January 2022 04:26 UTC+08:00 Clean rejection, close at 36. 6 for a safe one first support is there but I think good possibility of even deeper 👌🏼 Mentioned above this region will reject hard! Unknown 27 January 2022 04:32 UTC+08:00 My exact number I predicted the top was 38. 5, pretty spot on I must say 😅 Unknown 27 January 2022 04:33 UTC+08:00 you can also instead of shorting just exit for a few days. . . i don't like trading into earnings, tax harvesting wash sale ending & the fomc hearing. . . ok thats all goodnight! RealisedGains Investing 27 January 2022 12:52 UTC+08:00 greedy thing would be to close some, and let the rest run. use existing profits to buffer as you hold the rest. still think we are capable of even deeper. if you have the guts to hold you may 🤙🏼 we are not long biased right now, there's major support at 35. 3 but i still believe we are trending down in the macro form so just low leverage and walk away! RealisedGains Investing 29 January 2022 06:22 UTC+08:00 If you closed some where I suggested at 36. 6, this region is a possible reshort at 38-38. 2k. Alternatively, if you are low leveraged, just hold it and ignore this (PA) Price Action. Still think we range and downtrend is still intact. Macro view remains unchanged. These areas are where I would be less speculative. I always expected a bounce at the end of January cause of the Tax Harvesting wash trade rule ending (mentioned this a couple of times). Nothing unexpected so far, other stocks will also relief. $TSLA at under $800 will have a relief bounce as well! Unknown 29 January 2022 06:27 UTC+08:00 $TSLA will bounce from $790-$840 region to $950-962 I believe. At least tease $900 minimally. Earnings were good. Wash trade rule is ending. Powell allays rate hikes fear once again during FOMC. This is very strong near time frame support. Let's see! Will start logging down these trades on excel just to track from tomorrow onwards 👌🏼 RealisedGains Investing 30 January 2022 04:22 UTC+08:00 For $BTC, Still at resistance but market hasn't move much at all. Would be more cautious when it consolidates so long, probably means continuation and that we need to tap a higher liquidity before we go down again. Would deleverage or cut my shorts if we stay here any longer. No trade zone till February I think. Watch the monthly close and check the tax harvesting rebuys today. We'll move soon! Unknown 30 January 2022 04:35 UTC+08:00 Told you guys 12 minutes ago, just before this rise! Normally such long consolidations means we breakout as a continuation pattern. Hope you guys deleveraged but that was quite short notice I know. . . just got around to seeing it! Best to take the next couple of days off. February will be clearer! RealisedGains Investing 31 January 2022 05:54 UTC+08:00 Think we'll still range here a couple of days. Still waiting on the January close. . . Just know that the macro is still bearish, so bias should be short with a flexible stop loss and laddered entries. Looks for shorts at Resistance38. 2-38. 940. 3-40. 6 RealisedGains Investing 1 February 2022 01:18 UTC+08:00 i'll start looking for shorts soon! 40. 6 will be a very good short entry if we get there, just be patient and set laddered orders in advance! RealisedGains Investing 1 February 2022 17:44 UTC+08:00 possible this is the top at 38. 9k, this rejection looks proper and the blow off top we are looking for, think we'll retrace back to 35/36k lows once more in the next 1-2 week. Unknown 1 February 2022 17:45 UTC+08:00 i tend to have 2 short regions just in case one doesn't hold, you can double down at the next to be able to still get out at breakeven (if it goes to 40k). 40. 6k is too good of a liquidity tap, i still think we might get there but macro trend still bearish imo. anyway, enjoy the festivities!i'll do a full-on recap after the new years 🤙🏻 RealisedGains Investing 1 February 2022 22:17 UTC+08:00 Current Price (38975) this area is a pretty good region for a 1st short (38. 9k) but bear in mind we can still go to (40. 6k). How I would do it is to do a super tiny entry at the area for the 1st region and a more sizeable one at the 2nd region. Then watch the 40. 6 area with alerts. This region is where I'd expect a rejection. . . and a reversal on the higher time frames if it's supposed to happen. RealisedGains Investing 2 February 2022 22:38 UTC+08:00 hold the short, should be fine to retrace to support. will let you know when for a safe close! not there yet! RealisedGains Investing 3 February 2022 02:07 UTC+08:00 just to be clear, most times when i take a position, i give room for error for it to go to my next region. what this means is don't go all-in on your short at 38. 9k with your stop loss or liquidation at 40. 6k, i always give allowance just in case we go to the 2nd region, unlikely but always plausible. basically, take a short, not large, but enough to make some profits. i generally just keep doing this and compounding profits. RealisedGains Investing 3 February 2022 04:44 UTC+08:00 Will look at 35. 2 - 35. 5k for the first significant support and close region for my shorts. However, I am more inclined to wait out 1-2 more days before deciding. This could go down more still. Will just watch the support levels carefully and only consider invalidating if we breach 41k and holds. RealisedGains Investing 4 February 2022 02:55 UTC+08:00 If you were in $CLOV with me, keep exiting. I DCA-ed down so my average entry was $2. 40; yesterday's squeeze imo is time to get out. We made it to $2. 80 as suggested but got rejected quite harshly! Out for now. Should definitely be up for you guys if you DCA-ed properly! RealisedGains Investing 5 February 2022 00:03 UTC+08:00 (Crypto) Will look to add more shorts at the 40s region. Very strong area of resistance at 40. 3-40. 6, likely we tap there and reject awhile at lease. Reject or reversal is the real question! My plan would be to place a stop loss at entry after entering there and just watch more actively 👌🏼 RealisedGains Investing 5 February 2022 14:41 UTC+08:00 Hit both $155 on $ABNB and $2. 80 on $CLOV as suggested from our entries at $141 and $2. 40. I might hold the $ABNB a little longer with a trailing stopnloss to aim for $164. $CLOV I have already exited. Just being calm and cautious of the markets still for now. US Rate Hikes are expected next month in March! Pretty sure, that will impact or price into stocks negatively! RealisedGains Investing 6 February 2022 01:12 UTC+08:00 ($BTC) Strict Invalidation at the 41. 8k region. Weekends normally trap longs!A bit early on the short but I think we still retest supports:40. 4k-40. 6k (Weak)(80% Probability)39. 5-39. 8k (Weak) (Might not close here, just trailing SL to let it run deeper)37. 8-38. 5k (Strong) (40% probability) Should be flipping longs at the 37-38k region if we get there! Expecting a bounce if we get there! However as always, if we do breach 41k I will cut my positions, this is the last stand for this high volume node. watch this region very very closely if we do need to cut. my gut would be just to ladder in shorts slowly and use miniscule leverage. i generally keep shorts leverage much smaller than for longs. Unknown 6 February 2022 01:17 UTC+08:00 The 41k region is a key resistance after all. . . Depending on whether this holds, I would suggest the next strong resistance to be 46. 5 - 46. 9. I would cut the short if we breach previous highs again. Otherwise, think we sweep lows once again. As always, trade safely and not with high leverage, this is not a great region. Don't fancy it too much. . . Perhaps looking into some US Stocks/Forex might be better. Shorting is generally not advised when we already dropped so much. . . RealisedGains Investing 7 February 2022 07:50 UTC+08:00 (Crypto) Had to cut most of the positions at 41k cause we consolidated for too long. . . (Thankfully wasn't leveraged) Will just aim for the next resistance. The next real resistance would be 46. 5-46. 9k. Opting to sit out till then cause I am not convinced we fully broke this region yet. Just a feeling. . . Basically: Closed off all my earlier longs from 34/35k at 41. 5k fully already just looking for shorts now but being patient and slow with it. (US Stocks) Only holding $ABNB positions, exiting slowly. Aiming for 164 but exiting on my way up. Options expiring in 3 months. Took profits fully on $CLOV as I mentioned already! Unknown 7 February 2022 08:00 UTC+08:00 As mentioned earlier here, held my 34. 3k longs to the resistance regions but the attempts to flip short I've had to cut. It's a good thing we rode the large longs up but had to give back some profits to the market from the shorts. It's part of trading I guess!Depending on the conviction you should opt for different sizing. General rule of thumb is to always go less size on shorts cause it's just generally a poorer alternative. I normally opt for 1-3x Leverage for Longs & 0. 5-1. 5x Leverage for Shorts. This would ultimately depend on your own account size as well. On a 2x Leverage long, it requires a 50% drop to liquidate you. On a 2x Leverage short, it requires a 100% gain to liquidate you. Even above that, since you're normally DCA-ing your entries, we essentially have no chance of liquidations unless we have black-swan flash crash events. However, in view of such lowered leverages. Most ideas & positions I hold out for 1-2 weeks normally. Hope that makes sense! RealisedGains Investing 7 February 2022 23:17 UTC+08:00 (Crypto) Looking at 46. 5k-46. 9k for the next resistance now, good cut on the previous short. Holding Spot Longs, just going to ride this up and exit as soon as we reach resistance, orders already set 👌🏼 Could opt for alts in this time too, if you prefer more ROI. Think some alts will rise with BTC, namely $FTT $BNB $WOO $AXS $ADA $AXAX $SOL to name a few, up to you!(US Stocks) Still in $ABNB positions as I mentioned, still looking at $163 region! Unknown 7 February 2022 23:22 UTC+08:00 Very close now for $ABNB. . . Entered at 140 looking for 163. 16% gain but on my monthly expirations options this is about 20-30%. Still being patient! RealisedGains Investing 8 February 2022 13:52 UTC+08:00 (Crypto) Still in our low volume node, think we can ride this a little further, especially on alts as well. We should see 45k holding today. However, given the speed of the movement up, I think we reject quite hard on resistance. Best to put orders well in advance to take profits, DCA up all the way to around the 46. 5-46. 9 region!(US Stocks) Still in $ABNB. Still patient. Waiting for $TSLA as well! RealisedGains Investing 9 February 2022 01:17 UTC+08:00 Take some more profits of $ABNB at 162-164 region as suggested, think it's best to take profits across the board; $CLOV at $2. 80 or $3. 20 again would be excellent. I personally already exited $CLOV on the previous run-up. RealisedGains Investing 9 February 2022 03:36 UTC+08:00 super duper close now. . . $162-$164 i am taking profits! bought at 140 held to here if you scroll & check. opted for deep ITM options that expire in 3 months so not super speculative but a good 40% on my options account ✌🏼 Unknown 9 February 2022 03:43 UTC+08:00 Hit 950-960 on $TSLA from 790 as suggested, hope y'all bought. . . Exited these as well! Will do an options course soon ✌🏼 Honestly, the ROI from stocks can just be as good as Crypto. I mainly just do these 2 ✌🏼 Decent year so far for my trading, albeit a little slower paced than last year. Think it's just market conditions. . . Unknown 9 February 2022 03:45 UTC+08:00 (Crypto) Think we are in a resistance area; idea is to DCA your exits otw up as I mentioned. Just ladder exits and put a trailing stop loss if you're gonna exit soon. (That's the best way I found) Pretty difficult to time this exactly. . . Crypto really moves so much faster compared to stocks. This trading style might not be for everybody. . Hope everyone got out! Think we still have to be cautious here. Just a relief rally imo. RealisedGains Investing 9 February 2022 05:35 UTC+08:00 Fully out - we finally at 163 now for $ABNB. Good solid high conviction play. Will do a video on how I do options next I think! RealisedGains Investing 11 February 2022 02:52 UTC+08:00 $ABNB trading at 175 right now. That's quite mad considering everything else is falling right now. Whoever thinks you can old make money through Crypto is flawed. US Stocks can present the same opportunity for profit and volatility imo. Already out of my call option positions, but I am still holding a small amount of the stock still. Unknown 11 February 2022 02:53 UTC+08:00 (Crypto) Still looking at this same region. Poor r:r to long now, so looking for shorts at these prices. Just closed off the longs I opened at 41k earlier last week. We'll see! RealisedGains Investing 11 February 2022 12:52 UTC+08:00 Not currently in a position but I think the larger macro downtrend is still intact across markets. Don't think we see ATH as I said. CPI is 7. 5, expecting hawkish policies and interest rate hikes on March 16th. RealisedGains Investing 12 February 2022 14:31 UTC+08:00 Didn't exactly hit 46. 5k, we only went up to 46050. That's kind of what happens when you try to time it too exactly. Fortunately we at least took the longs up to there. CPI news should push the broader markers down. Not opting for shorts at the moment. Just buying put options on certain stocks that's all, largely puts for TSLA at 910 targeting wayy lower 750 even but i'll watch as it goes there 🤷🏻‍♂️🤫 RealisedGains Investing 12 February 2022 22:11 UTC+08:00 Hi guys! Just a weekend update. Think overall trend is still down, max we can possibly see for a resistance would be 43. 3-43. 8k. With the CPI data, I am expecting more downside with Crypto. Same story for stocks, I think $ABNB & $TSLA are still good for sells or puts. With current market conditions I am just not keen on buying for long term holds or value investing. Value investing would imply I have to see value at these prices and I think further downside should not be ruled out! RealisedGains Investing 15 February 2022 13:38 UTC+08:00 Looking at 43. 8k for $BTC; We are reaching there now. . . $ABNB & $TSLA might form a double top today. Today will be an interesting day to trade. As always, employ smaller size and slower laddering if you are new. RealisedGains Investing 15 February 2022 16:48 UTC+08:00 (Crypto) Entirety of this red region 44-46k is great for shorting on the larger time frame; i'm talking on a weekly candle basis. . . Just don't overleverage, you should be fine. If you entered earlier, i'll just lower the margin size when I reach breakeven, we should retrace back down to low 43s at least so you can definitely get some positions out and re-short again higher. These are not regions i'll be taking longs or being bullish already. Short R:R is better. RealisedGains Investing 15 February 2022 18:32 UTC+08:00 (Short Guide on Crypto Futures)What I mean by this is that I am gonna ladder in shorts slowly but I expect a sweep of the lows eventually on the larger time frames so as long as you can hold down the position, I think long run it's okay. Besides funding pays shorters right now so you are paid to open shorts. Like I mentioned previously, my shorts I tend to use 0. 5 - 1x Leverage, longs I use 0. 5-2x Leverage for Crypto. (This is for me personally). This style is a much more slower, passive way towards trading; position trading. Just laddering in entries much slower for larger swings. . . i. e. if using a 1k account$200 at 44. 8k short$200 at 46. 5k short$200 at 46. 9k shortThis employs $600/$1000 (60% Margin used) (0. 6x Leverage) Which would put liquidation at 76. 3k for your short contracts to liquidate you. Also makes your average entry around 45-46k overall; which is the end goal objective. If we break this region then i'll consider cutting losses. If eventually we take profit at range lows of 38k. That would still net a 21% gain off $600 which would be $126. That's a 12. 6% off your $1000 Capital. I prefer to do this style as it's just overall less stress with lower leverage and in this choppy/rangy market. Accumulating 10-15% each month can still be a decent amount long term!Just teaching you guys how to ladder in positions. I think at the end of the day, patience overall makes all the difference. RealisedGains Investing 15 February 2022 18:53 UTC+08:00 For Options, currently using Deribit for Crypto but I mostly use options for US Stocks. Looking for CLOV re-buys on 1-3 month call options at around $2. 35. Probably fairly deep ITM. Still on $TSLA puts and waiting for $ABNB to retrace since I exited my previous calls from $140 at $163! Not really worried of the market running away from me in this macro market conditions. Also watching $FDX, expecting a bounce based on technicals really really soon; it's currently trading at $228. Unknown 15 February 2022 19:03 UTC+08:00 Also hope you guys cut your margin just now. 43. 8 just wasn't a good initial entry but we did revisit it just now a 2nd time. Will look for 46. 9 as a very very strong resistance. I've mentioned this number a couple of times earlier. I'll be waiting for 46. 6-47. 1k and otherwise I am just holding a small amount of shorts all the way up just in case we just go down. Nothing too significant. less than 0. 2x Leverage. Obviously you could also long to 46k, but I just don't like the R:R of longing at this point already, won't be able to sleep at night. . . That's all the updates for Crypto till we reach my key regions. RealisedGains Investing 17 February 2022 00:11 UTC+08:00 17th February Market Update:Closed some at small profits/breakeven yesterday but probably just going to hold the remainder of my shorts for Crypto down and keep shorting if it does go back up. I just can't see it returning to an all time high in this macro environment. Will reconsider only if we blow past 46k, otherwise plan still in play to a retest under 40k. Only 0. 2x Leverage for me anyway. Ignoring $ABNB $TSLA for the time being, focusing my attention on closing my $ROKU positions and the $FDX position I entered. RealisedGains Investing 17 February 2022 21:47 UTC+08:00 Still holding them down! :" ) Not as much as I would like but sometimes making money is just holding a comfortable amount down to your take profit region. I don't like stressing and I have more conviction when my liquidation price is N/A. Just want to be able to sleep at night. At the end of the day, profits are profits! RealisedGains Investing 18 February 2022 02:09 UTC+08:00 18th February Update:Summary on my own Trades$ROKU went up another 5% from 168 but got rejected hard off the 9 day MA and 0. 236. Entered at 141 but took profits quick on the rejection closing at 168-170. As I mentioned above, I am pretty quick to take profits on my longs in this market, which also makes me lose out on some potential gains but that's the nature of the market, I abide by the trend. . . Entered $ABNB at 140 and sold off at 163 so missed out the move from 163 to 190. But it’s also hard to time a perfect time if there are short squeezes. Not gonna beat myself up too much, profits are profits. I am not a perfectionist. . Entered $BTC at 34k sold 41k, missed the move up after that but took the short from 43. 8k to here, so I think that makes up for the mistimed long close… Still in shorts but watching!Only one down a tiny bit for me is $FDX bought at 227/228, now trading at 226. Probably going to take the loss. But 0. 5% loss on 1 trade, couldn’t care less since the rest made much more. Unknown 18 February 2022 02:12 UTC+08:00 Also still on TSLA puts from 950ish. Holding it down. Still think this is overpriced, waiting for under $800. Lets see if we get there! Unknown 18 February 2022 02:26 UTC+08:00 18th February Update(Crypto)Possible Theory I drew out a couple days back for $BTC as you can see from this chart it hasn’t fallen yet. Looking for 38. 6-37. 8k for a 80% close on my short positions from 43. 8k. Then I’ll look for a bounce at D to consider a re-short with a trailing SL. The take profit after that will be determined by Fundamental Analysis news, so I can’t picture it right now… Obviously still a long shot but I do like taking the larger swings as opposed to smaller ones which is why you can tell I mentioned I generally hold my positions for 1-2 weeks on low leverage and I just keep adding size till my bias is correct, this works if you are disciplined! RealisedGains Investing 18 February 2022 19:58 UTC+08:00 Still holding. Out today so haven't had the time to watch it intensely. Holding 20% of my crypto portfolio in shorts from 43. 8k still, rest still in stables and yield farming. Gonna analyse the US Stocks and some Forex Pairs later tonight. Bear with me awhile trying to get some more stuff out! Just limited by time right now 😅 RealisedGains Investing 20 February 2022 13:09 UTC+08:00 Think we should be looking for closes soon for the $BTC Short. Still looking at the same number 38. 6-37. 6k, I'll put a tighter stop loss soon! Think we get some relief soon! Waiting for $TSLA under $800 to close puts and considering buys on $CLOV real soon (currently trading at $2. 11). Also amazing close on $ROKU, we went down another 25% to $112! RealisedGains Investing 20 February 2022 16:02 UTC+08:00 Closing! RealisedGains Investing 20 February 2022 16:19 UTC+08:00 Hope y'all was with me in on this 😬 This Month should have been good for you guys if you executed! As always, this is not financial advice or a signals group; just explaining my thought process with each trade & on the markets! RealisedGains Investing 20 February 2022 21:10 UTC+08:00 Still laddering in closes on my shorts, expecting this to bottom at 37. 6-37. 8 finally then i'll flip long with a tight SL. (Think I mentioned this plan earlier) However i don't mind closing a little earlier for my shorts to be safe; considering I waited for an entire week already. About 60% closed now! Unknown 20 February 2022 21:11 UTC+08:00 Take a flip long with a tight stop loss and then look for a bounce to D to consider a re-short with a trailing SL. This is my plan! Average close should be about 38-38. 2k once it's fully closed! Unknown 20 February 2022 21:13 UTC+08:00 (Crypto) I generally look a Crypto once every week or 2 weeks. Trying to take the longer swings so don't expect me to give updates daily. I generally don't have the time for that either. This style works for my time schedule and outside commitments. (US Stocks) Took a small L on $FDX, like 0. 5%, closed $ROKU in profit very hastily and fortunately, closed all the rest in profits for $ABNB. Just holding my $TSLA put down and paying attention to Lockheed Martin $LMT. That's all for today I suppose! Unknown 20 February 2022 21:15 UTC+08:00 Only expecting a small bounce here, generally already short biased because I have a OTM put option! But this is very speculative. I basically took a small small OTM put at 44. 3k along with my initial shorts but it's more like a wager betting on 20ks eventually. This is more like a gamble but a calculated one! Share more next time! RealisedGains Investing 21 February 2022 00:20 UTC+08:00 21th February Update:(Crypto)Expecting a small bounce for $BTC to the 38. 6-38. 8k region from here (38. 3k) at least and 39. 5 at most (Even if we get here, I don't think we hold there for long, so I'm not gonna bother longing here). Clear downtrending pattern already. Think we can expect continuation. Still short-biased, rips are for shorting. I am still 60% closed so not re-shorting; just looking to time my short closes, and potentially re-short higher. It's a good rule of thumb of mine to just simply not short as it goes down. I prefer to ride with my current position as opposed to exposing myself to more margin risk. Generally, you can also short alts but I think that really depends on your contract size or if the alts can support your liquidity. I don't tend to do that cause alts have more volatility and might not have enough liquidity to support my size. (US Stocks)Why I say Lockheed Martin $LMT is because it's a defense stock that is tied in very closely with defense budget of the US and is mainly funded by that. Threats of war will of course highly correlate with this stock's prices. I'll do a video/newsletter on this. In short, the U. S. government has agreed to take delivery of 133-139 aircraft and 151-153 F-35 aircraft in 2022 and 2023. While we can expect the FEDs to cut spending, I don't think this will be in the form of defence budgets tightening as with a volatile economic/political climate, I would expect Defence to be of higher precedence even. . . Unknown 21 February 2022 00:34 UTC+08:00 (Crypto)I'll spell it out abit more explicitly. Closed 60% of my shorts already at C from B (average close of 38. 2), not longing from C to D due to poor R:R, just laddering in re-shorts of the same size of 60% at D (38. 6-38. 8k 30/60%) and (39. 5-39. 8k 30/60%). Something like this. Hope this makes sense! Update again soon. (US Stocks)Stacking up on $LMT slowly but it already did a run-up. I've been stacking for a year now. It's just a more stable defence stock. Also waiting for my $TSLA close at under $800, potentially $750. As always, NFA and DYOR 🤙🏻 Unknown 21 February 2022 00:36 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 21 February 2022 11:08 UTC+08:00 21st February Update:As suggested we're making a run-up to 39. 5k region, I'll look for closes on longs or re-shorts there. As per yesterday's poll i'll try to do 1 quick update per day. At least giving my inter-range for trading. However, if you're taking such trades I would think that the hit rate would be much lower. I think that so far I have been pretty spot on but like I said, with greater frequency, you would have to take lower probability trade setups more on the intra day. Still juggling my school & work commitments cause I don't intend to full-time trade for the basis of mental sanity and also in pursuit of diversifying my income/cash flow further. As such i'll probably structure and label it into 2 setups. (1) Weekly High Probability Set-ups: This is what I personally trade due to my time schedule but i'll give you guys (2) as an add-on but i'll put a disclaimer and say that (2) is not what i'm personally trading. I only trade (1). (2) Daily Inter-range Key Support and Resistance Levels for Crypto, Stocks & Eventually ForexThis will probably include some news as well daily, whatever interesting I'm reading I guess 🤷🏻‍ Will optimise the postings out more in due course! Ending my school term in a few weeks. RealisedGains Investing RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 11:29 UTC+08:00 21st February UpdateBTC & Crypto(1) Larger Time Frame Swings- Still on a Downtrend, we could see relief to 39-40k but even then this will be short-lived. On a low leverage these prices shouldn’t bother you. Alternatively would be of course OTM put options which I personally employ but nothing too fancy. By laddering exits on shorts as suggest from 38. 6 - 37. 8k, I think you should have perfectly captured the bottom at 37. 9 yesterday. I'm only beginning to ladder re-shorts now. (2) Short-Term Trade Range:- $BTC faces strong resistance at 39. 6-39. 8k. Laddering in shorts with an invalidation at 40. 3k or tighter is a possible play. Trend still down till we sweep the lows properly, consolidate and hold. Then we’ll have to watch if the floor holds. US Stocks(1) Long Term Holds- Stuff I think that will still retain value in for a long-term hold. Covered Calls on $T still work. AT&T is still a necessity and is still profitable as both a business and for doing a CC strategy. If you don’t have enough capital to do CCs. Consider doing PMCCs. (2) Inter-Day Trading Range- $TSLA puts till under 800 still logical to me. $FSLY $SHOP & $CLOV at reaching very oversold territories at 18. 70, 2. 11 and 650 respectively at GMT+8 11am now. Might punt a buy soon but none of these are fundamentally sound except $SHOP imo. As always, NFA & DYOR. I personally only do longer term positions. RealisedGains Investing RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 20:04 UTC+08:00 (Crypto)For $BTC, we're trading at 37. 6k now! As to why I suggested not to take longs and only look for re-shorts! Targeting a sweep of the next lows. Think next support is 35. 8 - 36. 3k, will possibly look for closes on the shorts there. However, I think this is a weak support. If they give you 33/34k I will definitely put a trailing stop loss/take profits. Still in my put options and fully re-shorted already. Re-shorted the 60% I closed 30% at 38. 7k and 30% at 39. 5k. This de-risks your previous positions and compounds even more profits!Y'all should be good in profits now 🤙🏻$TSLA puts still waiting for close! Unknown RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 20:05 UTC+08:00 Also why I choose to ladder in the re-shorts earlier and slower, you don't need to time this market too much and I think the regions I picked were quite good. RealisedGains Investing 22 February 2022 08:35 UTC+08:00 22 February 2021:(Crypto)Still downtrending. Any rips should be short-lived, wouldn't consider any longs until 35. 8-36. 3k which we are fairly close now! Just make sure you ladder your exits well in that region! If you want to run it down you can place a trailing SL/TP when it reaches under 36. 3k; what this does is if it continues down you give it the chance to, however if it bounces up this strat immediately TPs. I'll look for re-shorts after closing this bounce from 35. 8-36. 3k if the bounce is strong. As I mentioned won't be doing alts, unless ETH, BNB, FTT, KCS. No small caps, just coins with high correlation to BTC/Crypto Market Potentially! RealisedGains Investing 22 February 2022 11:17 UTC+08:00 Still in shorts. reaching an area of bounce. Will ladder some closes from 36. 3k to 35. 8k. Perhaps about 40-50%. Always be willing to take profits! No one ever went broke taking profits 👌🏼 Unknown 22 February 2022 11:25 UTC+08:00 Instead of taking profits entirely here, you could do what I suggested and do a trailing SL/TP to let the short potentially run but to be ready to take profits in finding some short term relief/support around this 35. 8k region. Unknown 22 February 2022 11:30 UTC+08:00 I really said 39. 5k at most and it really only went there 😅 Running pretty good lately, been spot on ✌🏼 Unknown 22 February 2022 11:35 UTC+08:00 What I mean by the last part was that we choose high correlation alt coins to short in confluence with a downtrending $BTC. This will make you more profits with less leverage as alts tend to fall harder than BTC. This takes a bit of tweaking cause I correlate this data with BTC dominance and do a simple correlation graph to see what works the best for this strategy. Those I listed are what I personally do. This strategy lets you take the same position with less leverage to make the same gains. RealisedGains Investing 22 February 2022 19:23 UTC+08:00 22nd February Update(Crypto)Trailing SL triggered at 36. 5k for $BTC so took off 30% some profits there. Still in about 60-70% shorts entered at my 2nd reshort of 39. 5k. Whenever we reach an area of support I tend to employ a trailing TP then just walk away. If we continue down, we let it run. Knowing when to put a trailing SL especially placed at a support region can be crucial. Anyway, not too concerned, just a squeeze for late shorters - maybe a quick tap up to 38. 4-38. 6k for liquidity but I believe trend is still down! If we get another retest down to 36. 3k region (+- 0. 3k) I would put another trailing SL! Hope this makes sense. (US Stocks)Same old. Puts in $TSLA still not closed, have time cause it's a 6 months options contract. Not suffering too heavily in Theta Decay. Possibly laddering buys for $SHOP $CLOV very soon. Overall a pretty decent month so far! Unknown 22 February 2022 19:25 UTC+08:00 I think this can be a saviour at times! Better off than trying to pick a perfect bottom to close, when we reach nearing a support region just put a trailing SL for 50% of suggested close and 50% at targeted close for the amount you want to close. So if it bounces you'll be guaranteed to take profits. Like I said, no one ever died taking profits. Sorry if I am a lil spammy lately, trying to do as suggested and update more often! RealisedGains Investing 22 February 2022 23:32 UTC+08:00 Currently going for that quick tap above 38k as suggested. Still down trending imo, nothing new to update; just a quick liquidity tap! RealisedGains Investing 23 February 2022 13:01 UTC+08:00 (Crypto) Still looking at 38. 4-38. 6 for $BTC as a resistance in case you are unsure. Still the same area. Think we just range here for a little bit, but if we do hold above 37. 9k for long enough i'll close my shorts. Already took some profits the last few days so should be all good for now!(US Stocks)$ABNB at 165 and $TSLA at 820. Still going down as predicted! $TSLA under 800 would be amazing for me. Been waiting on this for so long now. . . RealisedGains Investing 23 February 2022 16:26 UTC+08:00 we're at 38. 6 now! watch this area as a resistance. i will cut if we break convincingly. either case it'll still be taking profits since average entry for our 2nd re-short should be 39k and we did take some profits 36/37k RealisedGains Investing 23 February 2022 17:15 UTC+08:00 speed of movement is pretty quick, cut majority of shorts already, some were better than others, but all in profits. on to the next one! will do a recap later. . . Unknown 23 February 2022 17:17 UTC+08:00 still think we are downtrending in the monthly view so still have a put option open and leaving about 30% of the shorts still open. if we hold here longer i will cut all. will not be taking any longs at the moment. Unknown 23 February 2022 17:20 UTC+08:00 (US Stocks Thesis)If we get under $800 for $TSLA i will consider flipping into calls. Held my $950 puts till here. Been quite a long wait. . . $ABNB average exit previously if you recall was about $163/$164 so this is reaching my exit prices already. I'll opt to scale in laddered buys very slowly soon. I don't see how $ABNB will drop below $140 again that easily. It's a super strong area of support considering that's around the IPO price, it tested there 3 times the last year and held, and travel is starting to resume again. Unknown 23 February 2022 17:25 UTC+08:00 Think I will cut all & leave only my put option for $BTC. Think i'll look for next resistance to attempt a short again. Good enough profits for me! We're holding this region pretty well. Unknown 23 February 2022 17:30 UTC+08:00 Reattempt regions at 40. 2-40. 5k for $BTC shorts with a SL, not attempting to long till there though. . RealisedGains Investing 24 February 2022 04:08 UTC+08:00 Not my cleanest cut, should have held it a little longer, closed some at 38. 4-38. 6 cause I was a lil panicky. Should trust the gut more in the future. Taking 1-2 days off unless Crypto unless it reaches where I want to long or short. Not trading this inter-range as it consolidates. I don't like trading Wave CDE on the ABCDE Elliot wave on principle. (Refer to Image)Closed 90% of my short futures but still have put options fro 44k so not re-shorting at the moment. Won't be too bummed even if we do go down; still as I said, trendline still bearish. RealisedGains Investing 24 February 2022 04:28 UTC+08:00 We finally got under 800 for $TSLA. I just started to close! Trying to ladder closes heavily here 750-760. Think this potentially presents a short-term relief region as I have already said previously. Will flip calls and watch this one closely tommorow. Ignoring $BTC for the time being! RealisedGains Investing 24 February 2022 12:29 UTC+08:00 Didn't get here unfortunately. I'll honestly not try to time it so much when. Made a mistake by cutting some at 38. 4, when my leverage and size were actually good enough to hold the short down forever. I think that's the "problem" with trying to be more active. The more I stare at it, the more itchy fingers I get. I believe a lower leveraged/sized larger swing outweighs touching a position everyday even!Gonna optimise again. However puts on stocks still made me a decent chunk and I do still have crypto put options so it's okay! Still up a bunch for this month 👌🏼 Hope you guys are too! RealisedGains Investing 25 February 2022 03:26 UTC+08:00 25th February Update:Big moving day!Fully closed on TSLA puts at 750 flipped onto calls under 700, so an average of 730 for my entries. Had to ride this whole premarket overselling! Should be seeing some relief here across the board. Am laddering small buys already!$730 for $TSLA$128 on $ROKU$2 on $CLOVall decent prices for most counters on my watchlist for your first laddered buy entry as a short time frame support. will hold this out a couple days before reassessing! Unknown 25 February 2022 03:34 UTC+08:00 $SHOP & $CLOV are two of the most heavily oversold I am looking at. DCA here to punt a 5-10% move up sounds decent. eCommerce in the pandemic is still booming. Not hyperbullish on $SHOP but I expect relief soon at these prices. Waited soooo long for this! $CLOV is a riskier bet i'm just doing miniscule laddering but r:r for buys pretty good at these prices! we will definitely have short squeezes for this counter soon if you are not overlevered and can hold a buy position! Unknown 25 February 2022 03:37 UTC+08:00 Kind of why I am awake at 3am doing wee hours shopping. Pretty good day for buys if you know what to look out for!Entered decent size on $TSLA, $SHOP, $ABNB. Tiny positions on $CLOV. Still holding out on Crypto as I think we can still go lower and I want to be able to sleep soon. At least Stocks to some extent have a floor. . . Unknown 25 February 2022 03:38 UTC+08:00 Told ya guys we wouldn't break $140 on $ABNB, set my ladders all the way down so average entry about $144. Holding this to 164-165 if I can conservatively! RealisedGains Investing 25 February 2022 04:05 UTC+08:00 This run is amazingly fast! $TSLA $BTC $ABNB flying as well. Some nights you do have to stay awake 😂 RealisedGains Investing RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 06:26 UTC+08:00 Think we'll still get upside on these counters mentioned here. In the last 3 hours, from my buys:$TSLA 730 > 800$ABNB 144 > 159$SHOP 650 > 663$CLOV 2 > 2. 45Will definitely take profits on these eventually; still believe we in a downtrending year so i'll take them perhaps even a little prematurely just to be safe. Irregardless, i'll take a relief rally at support when I see one! RealisedGains Investing RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 21:36 UTC+08:00 Still holding my stock buys. I think we get relief all across the board the next couple days across major indices, will let you know when I'm selling, perhaps next week I think, largely my TSLA, ABNB, SHOP, CLOV, LMT positions. If you have Crypto, we're still in a low volume node, approaching first resistance at 40. 8k but I think there's a possibility of 42. 3k even for $BTC! Unknown RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 21:38 UTC+08:00 41. 7 - 42. 5k is a strong area of resistance for BTC. I'll probably opt to trailing stop loss if we break 40k and take a full profit at the suggested resistance, perhaps even flip short at 41. 7-42. 5k at the higher end of that resistance. Will do an extended update by tomorrow on my key regions for each stock - pretty volatile few days! RealisedGains Investing RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 22:12 UTC+08:00 Still holding most positions till minimally next week to reassess, will employ trailing stop losses or a stop loss in entry still, don't think we crash twice so fast without squeezing late shorts, so doubt we retrace back to entries. (UNLESS WW3 happens which then it's entirely out of my control). Off the bat, resistance areas would be:835-840 $TSLA (already 820 on pre-market)163-165 $ABNB745 $SHOPpotentially the only one I might take profits here, - $CLOV (we had a crazy run on this 20-30% last day)All of these should be in decent 10-20% profits without any leverage/margin already. I am not buying to hold at these prices, think Macro and economic climate still too bearish. So gonna opt to take profits faster. RealisedGains Investing RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 22:28 UTC+08:00 Been viewing $SHOP $CLOV more often than other the previous few days, cause I mentioned specifically these 2 were heavily oversold. I think $CLOV already did a fair enough bounce, waiting on $SHOP to go a bit higher!Unfortunately if you weren't awake at 3am last night it would have been difficult to catch good entries but I still think we have legs on $SHOP, $TSLA for a little bit. $CLOV, $ABNB and $BTC would not be a strong buy for me here. 1 Key Indicator you can use as a contrarian indicator would be to look at the VIX or VVIX levels; these are inverse ETFs, generally if VIX is above 35 and VVIX is 150 or closing there, we can see it as a sign of possible relief. Many people use VIX to hedge, so if it reaches these levels you can expect the opposite movement on the general markets. As people take profits on inverse ETFs, this can also provide short-term relief indirectly to the underlying ETF. There are a few indicators I personally use: RSI, VPVR, Max Pain Options, VIX/VVIX Levels, your usual MA & Stochastics. Will try teach them slowly here. RealisedGains Investing 26 February 2022 13:29 UTC+08:00 We did tap 40k as suggested on $BTC. Would have taken some profits there as suggested. Issue with day trading is you probably have to place alerts. Another way is to learn how to open more specific orders. (GTC IOC FOK)(Order cancel order)^ Learn all these before attempting to trade. Unknown 26 February 2022 13:30 UTC+08:00 Still waiting on these. Will look for closes actively next week I think. . . depending on the price! RealisedGains Investing 26 February 2022 20:05 UTC+08:00 Nothing new today. . . As I mentioned earlier, you probably missed most of the run for $ABNB $CLOV $BTC. $SHOP $TSLA $ROKU still have a bit more legs. I'll look for closes in a couple days I think. Let your winners run & cut your losers fast. Will push out an Options/Futures guide & video next week! You can hold me to that 😌 RealisedGains Investing 28 February 2022 23:15 UTC+08:00 WE ARE HERE!! Updating right now! Unknown 28 February 2022 23:24 UTC+08:00 $TSLA at 845 onwards right now as I suggested is a sell for me on a short-term time frame. Been targeting this number in both the groups under 750 I was signalling a buy. Do think we have potential for more upward movements but if you have any leveraged/margin positions I would be at least taking profits. Not opening puts or shorting yet but closing call options. $BTC at resistance for me. As I mentioned earlier 40. 5k onwards is not a bad position to attempt short ladders. $CLOV I think will meet short-term resistance at 2. 8. Not a buy here nor short. Just areas to continually take profits from our buys a week ago. $SHOP I am still holding. Being patient with this awhile longer, still in profit but not a lot. Initial entry still 650. $ABNB hope you took some profits at the resistance I mentioned a few days prior. I am still holding my spot positions for these. Not too concerned. Think we still have a strong floor at 130-140. Unknown 28 February 2022 23:26 UTC+08:00 For $TSLA we're moving up super quick. Currently the one I am looking at the most. I think i'll just employ a trailing stop loss. Give it the chance to run into 877, but i'll take profits continuously otw up there and if we do break 845 again downwards and holds there, I'll cut all. Unknown 28 February 2022 23:31 UTC+08:00 Entire chunk here to me looks like a take profit for my $TSLA positions. Put a stop loss at 845 and let it run into 859-882. Scale in exits at that region. Bear in mind, if you're just buying and holding you may too. This is NFA. I am expecting it to retrace later DYOR. Prospectively:859-861 35% Close868-872 35% Close877-882 30% Close Unknown 28 February 2022 23:35 UTC+08:00 Same plan on $BTC as a week ago. Tiny short ladders or take profits at our current resistance. However, given the nature of this latest $BTC movement. I am more inclined we do a liquidation cascade on shorts to tap into the 41. 4-42. 5k region. If I were to short and prospectively aim for a perfect entry i'll try 42. 5-42. 9k. There's strong liquidity to tap there. Anything before that on a down-bias should just be tiny shorts or take profits on longs. General bias and trend is still down for me. I do not believe we are in a bull-run period! Put Options may not be entirely bad if you got 3 months out. Unknown 28 February 2022 23:41 UTC+08:00 $CLOV also at 2. 8 now, not sure how many of you guys are in this but I am laddering out anything above 2. 8 and putting a trailing stop loss just under this region as well at 2. 75 or something. I generally believe in this saying; let your winners run, and cut your losers fast. So if we're running i'll let it run. However, if we do reach my full TP region like for $TSLA at 877-880 and $CLOV at around this region. I am taking them quick. Unknown 28 February 2022 23:51 UTC+08:00 Honestly if you're lazy or your size/leverage or options are far out enough; here isn't bad to take profits across the board either!I am just giving guidelines to ladder if you do enjoy swing trading monthlies. I think this relief will be short-lived. I expect us to go back down heavily closing in to the FOMC hearing on March 16th again out of fear & uncertainty perhaps. Unknown 28 February 2022 23:59 UTC+08:00 28th February UpdateIn summary:$TSLA laddered sells all the way up to 880, heavy resistance there. $CLOV anything above 2. 8 is good for closes on call options. Spot I think still can hold$BTC currently in a close region for any longs. Shorts I will only consider 41. 4-42. 5k and with a positive kurtosis and right skewed with more positions at the higher end. The rest not moving much, refer to previous updates! RealisedGains Investing 1 March 2022 09:14 UTC+08:00 1st March Update:Both $TSLA $CLOV still playing out as expected, at $871 & $2. 80 respectively. I am closing for these slowly. $BTC currently at 43. 5k; if in a short I think we will retrace later. If you're not too levered I think I will wait it out. Still think this is a significant resistance area. I'll flip bias if we do reclaim 46/47 & hold. RealisedGains Investing 1 March 2022 21:25 UTC+08:00 Still not convinced by the $BTC movement just yet. A reclaim of 46/47 and hold would be very bullish though. Took majority profits of $CLOV & $TSLA already. Still in my $SHOP to wait for $745. Think we still have legs on $SHOP to go upwards somemore. No puts/shorts on any stocks just yet for anything! RealisedGains Investing 1 March 2022 23:37 UTC+08:00 We're at 882 now for $TSLA. I am closed fully average exit about 874! Gonna be patient and wait for lower before re-buying! Not intending to short/put at the moment for anything. RealisedGains Investing 2 March 2022 13:18 UTC+08:00 2 March Update:Not entirely sure if we get to to 745 for $SHOP one of the slowest moving for sure! If we do stay under 745 for another 1 week, i'll cut all positions. This goes for my general stance on US Stocks as well. Might flip bearish. Already out on $CLOV $TSLA $ABNB fully, left positions on $SHOP. $BTC still on my put positions from a few weeks back at 44k, bias for me still down, not convinced till we break 46/47k & hold (which i also doubt will happen). RealisedGains Investing 3 March 2022 12:13 UTC+08:00 3 March Update:42. 6-42. 9k is another crucial level for $BTC to hold. Still think the trend is down but if you ever want to de-risk or lower your margin/leverage of your shorts, you can close some positions there. I find it easier to hold positions when they're smaller. Less stressful as well! Looking more into stocks at the moment cause the FOMC hearing & Global Tensions make it that there is quite a lot of liquidity and risk on movements to take. Potentially looking at puts for $TSLA soon now, considering we're double testing out 879-882 region. Starting to ladder in small puts. Think this goes to 920 at max on the short time-frame, so I'll ladder in with knowledge of that. $CLOV $ABNB not trading at the moment, fully out of calls still. $SHOP still holding awhile more as I mentioned! RealisedGains Investing 3 March 2022 21:36 UTC+08:00 $CLOV if you are still holding buys I suggest to cut. I was just buying for the short squeeze potential at $2 to $2. 80. Already a 40% gain. $TSLA attempting puts to ladder at 895-910. I think if you spread out your shorts/puts/takeprofits on this region; we will retrace after. Ruble has been crashing hard, been just researching into Russian Banks & Defence Stocks lately. Still holding my $LMT!For $BTC if I am still on my shorts I will probably deleverage some then attempt to short higher. However, I still believe we see lower in the coming months. I think it's foolhardy to think we don't touch 30ks again. Still holding my put options from 44k. Working on some comprehensive PDF trading guides; will send here next week! RealisedGains Investing 4 March 2022 02:31 UTC+08:00 For $BTC 42. 6k did not hold. If you are in shorts I think finally at long last you can put a stop loss in take profit. Just hold out a little longer. Think we do see 30ks again eventually. Stay calm, don't overleverage and stick to a plan! Send a very rough analysis right now. My camera is down for the next few days so can't do any live analysis. Unknown 4 March 2022 02:38 UTC+08:00 4th March Update:$TSLA already in some small puts! I mentioned I was laddering in small puts all the way from 879-920! Hope that was the top I got in at. Will update this more tomorrow ✌🏼$CLOV no positions. $SHOP got stopped out at close to breakeven. $BTC still on shorts/puts from 44k (haven't touched these in ages, willing to ladder if it goes up but i'll cut if we break 46k) RealisedGains Investing 4 March 2022 10:01 UTC+08:00 4th March:For BTC shorts from 42. 9k-44k. Think we break under 40k for one more sweep. If we're in a consolidation wedge which is what I am thinking. Safe TP around 38. 8k mark. I think if we get a move it should be now. So I am finally putting stops but I'll try to let this run to TP. Hard to explain my ideas through text but general idea is in the charts. RealisedGains Investing 4 March 2022 13:10 UTC+08:00 4th March 2022:For $BTC you can be patient. Think the longs are already trapped; Looking at 38. 8k prospectively, i'll reassess later how and where to ladder out shorts to take profits or roll longer. There are 2 waves I drew: one is a elliot extension wave, one is a consolidation wave to form a triangle wedge. Not sure which one forms yet. Leaning on triangle wedge since we're still far out from any news like the FOMC hearing or crucial CME expiration dates. As I mentioned above, I didn't get a perfect entry either. . . mostly started laddering shorts at 42. 9-44k. I mentioned I would cut if we did get 46/47k. It's okay to not be perfect all the time, just understand the general trend and slowly ladder!$TSLA so far has been playing out very perfectly. Took profits from $730 at $870-882 and flipped to puts from 878-882. Holding these and not adding. I principally don't add on my size even if they're small. I am okay with smaller profits as long as they're consistent! Will chart this out by next week. So far still a decent week! RealisedGains Investing 4 March 2022 22:59 UTC+08:00 38. 8k should be a safe TP. Think we break under 40k and potentially consolidate in this region awhile longer till the FOMC hearing. . . I would probably close and opt to re-short closer to hearing date. As I mentioned, longs are trapped already. I have been short-biased the entire month if you can't tell. . . Don't think we break to 46/47k anytime soon actually. Watching $ABNB $TSLA for calls in the next few weeks. I do enjoy buying the dip on these. . . No derivatives on stocks now except my puts on $TSLA still. RealisedGains Investing 5 March 2022 00:27 UTC+08:00 5th March Update:Gonna close at 38. 8k or put a trailing stop loss when it gets there. Essentially trailing SL means if it breaks abover 38. 8k we TP. $TSLA looking for close on puts at 770-773. Same thing, can put trailing SL. Let it run if it can but be prepared to take profit at support! Don't think we get a big big move down just yet. One more consolidation! Unknown 5 March 2022 00:29 UTC+08:00 Extremely red across the board today. $SHOP was a good cut. At least thankful that I closed even though my short positions aren't huge. . . Keep your ammo for the next dip I think! It'll be a good one ✌🏼 Unknown 5 March 2022 00:39 UTC+08:00 I rarely say it's okay to short or buy more puts after it goes down but I think we still have a fair bit more to go on this drop. Look for temporary supports at these regions:$BTC 38. 5-38. 7k$SHOP 538-545$TSLA 769-773Probably won't even buy these supports more like take profit regions on existing shorts/puts with a trailing SL to attempt further. RealisedGains Investing 5 March 2022 08:36 UTC+08:00 Bang 38. 6k! ✌🏼 Unknown 5 March 2022 08:37 UTC+08:00 i'm closing/putting trailing stops already ✌🏼 RealisedGains Investing RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 16:51 UTC+08:00 For $BTC I think the lowest we can go to me is 36. 5-36. 8 in the short time frame. Don't think we go down too deep just yet. But even then I think we do a final wick back up above 40k to aim for D before going down. D would be around 41. 2-41. 8 imo. You can take some profits and then reshort or just hold the short down. I think either way, i'll still be holding some shorts down as I expect lower for $BTC eventually! As long as you get paid in funding, nothing to worry about for holding shorts. RealisedGains Investing 6 March 2022 11:08 UTC+08:00 6th March Update:Flipping small long on $BTC aiming for 41. 2k but potentially taking profits early and flipping short again. That's the prospective plan. . . Last waves are a bit dangerous to go large on size, at least for longs. More comfortable with shorts in a down market still. US Stocks no movement on weekends so i'll update tmr! RealisedGains Investing 7 March 2022 02:41 UTC+08:00 7th March Update:Just to be clear before the markets open tmr, for $BTC when I said 38. 6k would be a support it just means i'm closing my shorts and opening very small longs. I do think we see deeper but not before some possible relief to 40-41k, even if we do go deeper, I am fine adding to my longs at 38. 6k since this is small. In a down market I am not buying on leverage. For US Stocks essentially nothing to buy yet. Just watch the open. . . don't think there's significant support since this is approaching the second tap of support! Wait it out a few days. . . RealisedGains Investing 7 March 2022 13:19 UTC+08:00 7th March Update:For $BTC C could be 38. 6-36. 6k but I do believe we get a relief to D before the final drop. Just generally be more short-biased then long in these movements. If you want to long I suggest small leverage and more spread out!US Stocks not much change still. . RealisedGains Investing 8 March 2022 12:45 UTC+08:00 8th March Update:Nothing much new on $BTC. In a small long from 38. 6 didn't add nor cut. If we go deeper i'll add. . Waiting for 40-41k for close. $TSLA waiting for 770-775 as I mentioned to close. . . rest not touching personally. $SHOP I think support is at 535-542. Unknown 8 March 2022 12:49 UTC+08:00 TLDR; laddering $BTC buys for a quick scalp. looking for $TSLA put closes. getting ready for $SHOP buys. RealisedGains Investing 8 March 2022 23:06 UTC+08:00 For $BTC i'm aiming for 41. 8-42. 2k for a close on the longs. Might even close earlier. Trend still down, but i'll watch for a few days before putting a stop loss! Don't think we fall just yet. Just ranging. Think we bounce before the FOMC hearing on March 16th. $TSLA still waiting for under $800! $SHOP laddering at some 530-540 and going to sleep. Unknown 8 March 2022 23:08 UTC+08:00 Also if we break 36k for $BTC i'll be cutting my longs. . . but otherwise my current longs are also small. Still short-biased, just think there'll be small relief before a final drop. RealisedGains Investing 9 March 2022 10:56 UTC+08:00 Still holding onto the $BTC longs! Waiting for 40-41k at least. . . think this will be the final E wave of the consolidation wave. We've been ranging in the 38-42k region for a few months now almost. This next breakout I believe will be big. $SHOP at 515 right now. Have some in already. Kind of expected it to break the support, this downtrend for $SHOP has been huge. ATH at 1500 seems so far away 😅 Going to exit on the relief, same plan. RealisedGains Investing 9 March 2022 11:49 UTC+08:00 Bang! Lets goooo $BTC 😎 100% hit rate this year Unknown 9 March 2022 11:51 UTC+08:00 41k now and climbing for $BTC! Look for closes 41. 8-42. 3. I will full close & flip short if we get 42. 3k. Update later! Working on my trading guides, school & some admin stuff - will upload the guides by today or tomorrow! Unknown 9 March 2022 11:57 UTC+08:00 today is take profits day, my favourite day 😀 held these longs for 3 days it feels! RealisedGains Investing 9 March 2022 13:00 UTC+08:00 if we break 41. 8k i'll put a trailing SL, very close now for $BTC! RealisedGains Investing 9 March 2022 20:28 UTC+08:00 $BTC currently at 42. 3k trailing SL placed here. If we break 41. 7-41. 8k trigger i'm out and flipping short 👌🏼 all in the plan! easy 💰 Unknown 9 March 2022 20:29 UTC+08:00 $SHOP already in my call options. Full youtube analysis out tomorrow, guides out on friday. Stay tuned! RealisedGains Investing 9 March 2022 21:41 UTC+08:00 same plan! today is moving day 🤙🏼 i don't move my positions often. today we doing some adjustments! i think this is local top, will close all around this region as mentioned and follow my plan. FOMC hearing march 16th I think we see a drop. RealisedGains Investing 10 March 2022 11:26 UTC+08:00 Took profit & flipped short on $BTC 41. 8k-42. 3k. Take profits triggered when I was asleep 😅 just left it there! Hold this down, wait for E. Unknown 10 March 2022 11:29 UTC+08:00 Got in on $SHOP as well. Managed to close the $TSLA puts. Pretty decent moving day yesterday! Hope everyone is fine and well 🤙🏼 RealisedGains Investing RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 17:27 UTC+08:00 39k now and going down. Still in the short. Y'all heard it here first LIVE ✌🏼 Unknown RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 17:28 UTC+08:00 this charting still perfect btw ✌🏼 RealisedGains Investing 11 March 2022 02:14 UTC+08:00 this is not a position i would short anymore for $BTC but for those still in shorts i think we can hold out possibly to these 2 supports. many longs are trapped already. my current strategy is to put a stop loss in take profit/at entry for my shorts and go to sleep. ---36. 2k (trailing stop loss here)35. 4-35. 1k (if previous stops don't trigger and we fall further, trailing stop loss here) Unknown 11 March 2022 02:15 UTC+08:00 start taking profit on calls for $SHOP already. entered $530, can start exiting in small profits. we're clearly downtrending. just getting out for me. Unknown 11 March 2022 02:16 UTC+08:00 $TSLA waiting for $770 still on initial puts. . . didn't touch these much. Unknown 11 March 2022 02:18 UTC+08:00 $TSLA same plan from here. Long green region at 775, short red region 882. Now we just wait! RealisedGains Investing 11 March 2022 02:34 UTC+08:00 $ROKU is worth less today than it was worth before the pandemic. Yet, relative to its pre-pandemic levels, Roku has 60% more users, 145% more revenues and 13X the EBITDA. It indeed looks like we're free falling but on a technical standpoint we're at long-standing support. Above this, yes, revenue misses due to supply chain issues from the pandemic in the q4 earnings are a point of concern. However, this can be relatively easily fixed over time as governments start learning to live with COVID. This just depends on the industry. "Based on the likelihood that a meaningful portion of the $60bn-$70bn of traditional TV advertising market will migrate to connected TV platforms in the coming years, we have maintained our modest sized position during this period of tempered viewership growth. "Long-term still think it has potential. Very high on my radar. Actually punting a few calls soon. Since we're also on a Technical Support at 100-110 RealisedGains Investing 11 March 2022 10:59 UTC+08:00 As I said earlier, this is a position I am holding. Just employ a trailing SL or manually shift your SL throughout the week. If you refer to previous chart we are looking at the possible E Wave right now! RealisedGains Investing 11 March 2022 13:13 UTC+08:00 think we might possibly see a rise in $ROKU in the coming days. . . going to do a few videos to chart and upload over the weekend! $BTC shorts still holding for me. Unknown 11 March 2022 13:16 UTC+08:00 Unknown 11 March 2022 13:17 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 12 March 2022 09:02 UTC+08:00 Still in $BTC Shorts & & $TSLA still waiting for my put closes. Nothing unexpected! All chill 🤙🏼 RealisedGains Investing 13 March 2022 12:31 UTC+08:00 March 13 Update:I don't have much to update. Going to wait for FOMC hearing & the monday open on some stocks! Moving quite little this weekend so go out & enjoy yourselves! My style has quite a fair bit of waiting sometimes. . certain days when you needa go online you should that's about it. . RealisedGains Investing 14 March 2022 11:53 UTC+08:00 Still in $BTC Shorts, same numbers 🤙🏼 $TSLA waiting for $770 RealisedGains Investing 15 March 2022 10:43 UTC+08:00 finally hit for $TSLA! Will flip into calls here, looking if this brief support region holds and then i'll reassess after this bounce. $BTC still holding! Sorry for the lack of updates, down with a cold. Will just update the chat accordingly. Unknown 15 March 2022 10:43 UTC+08:00 We could bounce from 760 to 800+ then i'll have to really track if this support holds 🤙🏼 RealisedGains Investing 16 March 2022 00:21 UTC+08:00 16th March:Slowly laddering in $TSLA calls and still in $BTC Shorts. We've been staying at this range for so long i'm going to opt to put a tighter stop loss soon! $BTC Short Entry still at 44k. Will look at others to trade in the meantime! I kind of like $ABNB at this 135-140 range. Always seems to find support on this trendline. . . We're approaching the FOMC hearing in the next 2 days, expecting this low volatility period to end! RealisedGains Investing 16 March 2022 03:09 UTC+08:00 In $TSLA calls already trending above 800 now. Watching this hold! A lot of OI went out for $BTC shorts, i. e. a bunch of shorts just closed. Given mine is in a safer entry i'm opting to hold it still. Will update as the FOMC hearing progresses! Unknown 16 March 2022 03:09 UTC+08:00 As I said, we would be at 800 for $TSLA pretty quick! RealisedGains Investing 16 March 2022 20:32 UTC+08:00 816 for $TSLA already on pre-markets. Think we got 820-830 minimally, will opt for a trailing stop loss right under there perhaps at 810. Entry at 766. RealisedGains Investing 17 March 2022 04:08 UTC+08:00 Hold these positions! Think we do get some relief. FOMC hearing just finished. Nothing too unexpected. . . We do get rate hikes but nothing too concerning RealisedGains Investing 17 March 2022 19:32 UTC+08:00 Still short-biased on $BTC think we play out this triangle wedge. Closing to the end of it. Support at 38. 8-39. 1Resistance is right about here 40. 8-41. 4, highest I can see it go is also 42. 1k. Trend still down imo for $BTC. $TSLA i'm still holding. If you want longer-term holds i'd be looking at commodities right now tbh. Unknown 17 March 2022 19:35 UTC+08:00 As I mentioned 2 days ago, $ABNB at the 135-140 range is still a buy. Always seems to respect this region. On a TA standpoint, this line is holding strong. Yesterday's FOMC hearing was also nothing too interesting. . . We just climbed from 135 to 155 the last 2 days! Unknown 17 March 2022 19:38 UTC+08:00 TLDR; I am bullish on US stocks but only at certain regions and opting to take profits fast. Buyer for $ABNB $TSLA $CLOV $MLCO. Same few. Using monthly options for this. Bearish on Crypto on a weekly time frame still. Not trading too heavily on crypto at the end of this wedge. Using perpetual futures for this. Bullish on Commodities (Personally haven't bought much) Still expanding into this asset class on my personal portfolio diversification. Mainly looking at ETFs/Indexes. RealisedGains Investing 18 March 2022 00:11 UTC+08:00 Possible close for $TSLA at 878-928 already laddered. . . For the time being, just using a trailing stop loss. Think we get a decent rally out of this FOMC news. Hearing just over yesterday, nothing too crazy just a 25 percentage point move. RealisedGains Investing 18 March 2022 12:25 UTC+08:00 $TSLA at 871 right now, I'm employing trailing stops a bit more actively today. As I said, once we hit this region i'm gonna be comfortable taking profits. Think we retrace later anyway. Oil starting a rise with commodities, something i'm actively looking at today! Unknown 18 March 2022 12:27 UTC+08:00 Today might be take profit day on $TSLA, if i'm going to enter anything in the near time frame. Might actually be commodities. . . or at least, a commodities index/etfs. Will screen some and keep you guys updated! RealisedGains Investing 19 March 2022 01:38 UTC+08:00 TP for $TSLA30% at 918-92235% at 926-93035% at 935-938SL shifted to 875. This region i'm gonna be actively taking profits. Get ready with your close orders there in advance, going to sleep, but keep shifting the stop loss higher as we go up as well! Markets close in a couple hours. Watching this close and the monday open! RealisedGains Investing 19 March 2022 17:45 UTC+08:00 19th March Update:Most stocks on a major run-up today specifically $SHOP, $CLOV, $ABNB, $TSLA all still doing well. I am just taking profits for $TSLA and $ABNB. Did not take any positions for the others. Still think there is a bit more upside for most counters. But I won't be a buyer for those that already did 20-30% in the last couple of days. Feds did a very low interest rate hike and Powell basically suggested that the Economy is still strong. I don't believe we reach ATH this year still. If you want a decent R:R play that hasn't flew yet, I might look at $ROKU on Monday, currently at 124. Will look for puts starting end of next week I think! RealisedGains Investing 19 March 2022 19:18 UTC+08:00 $BTC still in this wedge, not too convinced we get out of this downtrend pattern. I think here is okay for a low-leverage short. Current Price (41. 8k) Just ladder in. Even the most we can see is 43. 8k I presume. Think we still see 30k again. Still missing the D and E waves. RealisedGains Investing 20 March 2022 04:59 UTC+08:00 Starting to enter positions in $BTC shorts at 42-43k with a stop loss at 44k~. I don't advise too tight a stop loss, i'd rather you just use lower leverage spread your entries out more. Will target the bottom of the range at 39k, but as usual willing to put a trailing SL. RealisedGains Investing 20 March 2022 12:58 UTC+08:00 20th March Update:In my first ladder amount of shorts for $BTC entered at 42. 3k, will hold this down but placing a stop loss soon. Will let this wedge play out if it can. . . Purple box is quite big so going to leave more ammo to Stop Loss and re-short if need be. . . Won't rule out it going higher as well. Just relying on this wedge playing out and that we end up in a squeeze. So far my ideas have been largely correct so I'll stick with my guts!$TSLA & $ABNB i'll likely start closing some on the calls next week! Unknown 20 March 2022 12:58 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 20 March 2022 17:31 UTC+08:00 Gonna try to hold till 39. 3k there-ish. Will rethink the numbers later. If you want to close earlier 41. 3-41. 4k also presents plausible support. Inbetween these 2 number is a low volume node, don't expect any support there. . . Still in the short, shifting SL slowly. RealisedGains Investing 20 March 2022 23:31 UTC+08:00 At 41. 3k now for $BTC 💥 RealisedGains Investing 21 March 2022 02:10 UTC+08:00 Broke 41k already. . . Holding it down to 39k I think. Time to shift SL & set a trailing stop loss now ✌🏼. RealisedGains Investing 21 March 2022 21:52 UTC+08:00 21st March 2022:Closing actively on $TSLA! If you haven't close any of the calls last week from 780. This is a price i'm closing at. Think we retrace by the end of the week. If you give me 951-960. I'll even go for puts perhaps. Unknown 21 March 2022 21:57 UTC+08:00 I am almost fully closed on the calls for $TSLA. . . Like 90% closed. . . Average Entry: $780 for $TSLAAverage Exit: $929 for $TSLA. . . I like to sell on pumps into resistance. It is just how I operate. As always DYOR & NFA! Unknown 21 March 2022 21:59 UTC+08:00 We've been waiting for this move for 6 days now. I also said monday I would close since last Friday 😅 After FOMC hearing hype dies down I think this rally will slow down too. . . Unknown 21 March 2022 22:09 UTC+08:00 That was a fast rejection 😅 Clean exits! As usual 🤙🏼 Unknown 21 March 2022 22:12 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 22 March 2022 11:57 UTC+08:00 22nd March 2022 Update:SL triggered on $BTC, looking for re-shorts higher. I am personally not taking longs for now, still short-biased, waiting for fresh entry positions. Fully exited on $TSLA still. Have to look at others today. A bit underexposed to the markets. . . Unknown 22 March 2022 12:01 UTC+08:00 If you are day-trading, $ROKU & $FSLY I think are low enough. I expect these 2 to bounce soon if the market conditions remain strong. RealisedGains Investing 22 March 2022 12:27 UTC+08:00 We're at 43k now and climbing fast! I did say to shift SL lower, we're breaking out of this wedge. RealisedGains Investing 22 March 2022 13:07 UTC+08:00 Not really convinced on this rally, depending on how this daily closes, we could still be in this triangle. Still think long-term trend is down, but preferably if we're taking positions to try to suffer as little pain as possible. Not wrong to take shorts/puts at these prices. I'd opt to ladder in positions super super slowly right now. Already in some shorts. Unknown 22 March 2022 13:13 UTC+08:00 Holding my short down at the moment. . . Think this is possibly a fake out but i'll ladder slowly. . . ✌🏻Bottom of this wedge is still 38. 8-39. 4k, I do think we revisit there eventually but I would like to minimise my own pain as well. Unknown 22 March 2022 13:18 UTC+08:00 Considering puts on $TSLA, I think we did well exiting yesterday at $929, but this 2nd run up does present the opportunity for a double top on the hourly candles as well as a put opportunity! RealisedGains Investing 22 March 2022 14:11 UTC+08:00 Just broke down into 42. 3k again. . . My average sells were about 43. 2k. Took only about 400k in Contract Positions but happy with the entry. Generally I don't tend to shorts add along the way down, I add shorts only on the way up. Always remember, buy on dumps, sell on pumps. Simple logic! Will place a tight stop loss on the short here at 42. 6k, which I expect will trigger but I am okay with taking profits at this support even though I still possibly expect 38. 6-39. 3k. It's just risk-management. Unknown 22 March 2022 14:13 UTC+08:00 Key region here: I will watch the 41. 8-42. 2k region carefully. This is short-time frame support. Still hoping we revisit the 38. 7-39. 3k region again but I am okay being stopped out. Unknown 22 March 2022 14:27 UTC+08:00 Stop loss did not trigger :D RealisedGains Investing 22 March 2022 18:47 UTC+08:00 Stop loss got triggered on half of my positions at 42. 6k! If anything, this region is still resistance in my books. . . not too concerned about the short-time frame movements. Still waiting on $TSLA and $BTC to retrace. No puts for $TSLA just yet. Might employ calls. Think this relief will last the week tbh. Macro conditions seems a bit better now. RealisedGains Investing 22 March 2022 22:36 UTC+08:00 Might go for puts on $TSLA if we get $950-960. Trying to time the exits/shorts/puts and flip long, think I am long-biased on the markets this week. Macro conditions really do seem better with peace talks and also the low interest rate hikes. Unknown 22 March 2022 22:41 UTC+08:00 Think we stay in this range. For the rest of the next day, you can generally trade this range. I will trade within this range but with a short-bias considering the larger wedge we are in. Support at 42. 3-42. 5kResistance here at 42. 7-43. 1k RealisedGains Investing 23 March 2022 01:37 UTC+08:00 Going for puts on $TSLA super slowly here. Perhaps 30% in at 955-960. 70% in if we get 1010-1020. I doubt we get to 1000 just yet though. Think we are approaching considerable resistance. Unknown 23 March 2022 01:39 UTC+08:00 Small triangle forming for $BTC. Following the range but keeping the remainder of my shorts from 43. 2k open. RealisedGains Investing 23 March 2022 23:23 UTC+08:00 $TSLA is flying. Ladder in slowly if you are going puts. We did retrace to 970 on market open. Not intending to fade this market open. Luckily I have some $ROKU and $FSLY and $CLOV. $CLOV made one of the biggest moves, almost a 2x already from last week. I would expect $BTC to run alongside stocks given the market conditions so I am just going to trade within the numbers I gave yesterday, but tighter as the wedge consolidations. Unknown 23 March 2022 23:27 UTC+08:00 Crypto, particularly $BTC is quite slow right now. . . Might have to look into some alts. So for instance, if we are trading on support at 42. 3-42. 5k, and resistance at 42. 7-43. 1k, the next time it bounces off there we shift both support and resistance tighter by a margin of 0. 786 based on fibo. But bear in mind this is a smaller triangle within the larger wedge. I'd just take these trades if I were day trading. Still in my 43. 2k shorts but closing some more to de-risk. Will re-short higher, possibly at 42. 8-42. 9k. Unknown 23 March 2022 23:28 UTC+08:00 I think these 2 are a bit slower to trend now, but they are very close to HTF (High Time Frame) support. I am already in on these. . . RealisedGains Investing 24 March 2022 10:37 UTC+08:00 24th March Update:Entered puts for $TSLA on both these positions, 30% first then 70%. Average entry is 992 on puts. Still underwater slightly. Should have gone a little slower on the laddering. Will watch carefully today and put a SL at entry if really need be. $BTC still playing that small triangle wedge yesterday I drew. RealisedGains Investing 24 March 2022 16:41 UTC+08:00 24th March:This is how the larger wedge looks right now. Not entirely out of the woods yet. Already closed most of my shorts yesterday in small profits as I mentioned to aim to re-short higher. Starting to ladder in shorts here now with a tight SL at 43. 9-44. 1k. Just playing the triangles. Don't think we break out yet. Still going to be ranging, so going to play the triangle for 1-2 more waves. RealisedGains Investing 25 March 2022 02:16 UTC+08:00 I think we get a revisit of 42. 8-42. 6k later still. Watching tonight! Will update later. RealisedGains Investing 25 March 2022 21:46 UTC+08:00 Still in my $TSLA puts, average around $992. Underwater but i'm still holding. Not adding anymore puts. Going to watch if I can get out today, else I will cut. For $BTC still think we are down-trending. Out of my $ROKU & $FSLY as well. Not much profits here. Quite a slow week. RealisedGains Investing 26 March 2022 03:32 UTC+08:00 26th March: Think i'll get out of $TSLA puts once it's breakeven, we breached under 1k again. Just putting an SL in TP. For $BTC, I laddered additionally just now around 9/10pm, average short is now at a 44. 9k entry. Will put a Stop Loss in Take Profit. A lot of adjusting these few days to protect my positions. If these stop losses trigger i'll just exit this idea. Think we're at the end of the pico top for $BTC & $TSLA already. . . Unknown 26 March 2022 03:43 UTC+08:00 issue with taking a bias is that of course you can't be 100% correct all the time; was underwater (at a loss) on most of my shorts/puts but I did some active management for both of them. $BTC short already in profit but $TSLA still not there yet. I think if we get an extended drop, this is an okay place to put a SL. You generally have to wait to set the SL normally. RealisedGains Investing 27 March 2022 23:06 UTC+08:00 27th March Update: Waiting for the Market Open still on the TSLA put options. Think this is still in an area of resistance. Managed to average out my previous shorts and deleverage. Still holding some shorts but I am still averaging in slowly. I still am on the belief we are not recovering into a full-blown bull market. I think the macro conditions have improved with the low interest rate hikes but given the upcoming FOMC hearings and hikes. Don’t think we get ATH for $BTC or $TSLA like some are suggesting. In this scenario, I would just be going low leverage/margin for shorts and puts and waiting for it to truly bottom before buying heavily. It’s hard to time the top but I don’t believe we have bottomed so still biased down. Tomorrow onwards also going to be providing some analysis on FX markets, will share more details on this later but largely the NY times. Been backtesting for awhile and trading on a smaller size but the trading style will be daily and different from the Crypto/Stocks one. You can follow along with this log for this as well if you are interested in FX. If you're new to FX markets, have a guide coming soon too so don't worry! RealisedGains Investing 28 March 2022 20:08 UTC+08:00 [Forex analysis] EUR/USD 4H As we start the week, price is currently range bound between 1. 0900 and 1. 1137. we can expect to open potential long positions soon and ride it all the way up and out of the range as price comes down to visit our Demand zones marked out on the 15M and 1H. Still, until I receive confirmation that price wants to go up from my demand zones marked out in the form of (1) a change of character (CHoCH) or (2) 2 Higher Highs formed, I will still be entertaining quick shorts from my 1H supply area as Price is still bearish in 4H substructure. Unknown 28 March 2022 20:10 UTC+08:00 EUR/USD, M15On the M15, price changes character to temporary bullish, so tonight we can look to start longing the market from the M15 demand zone with confirmation on the lower time frames (LTF). Still, we want to manage carefully as there is a strong 1H supply sone just right above, which we can look to short from too if price visits there first. RealisedGains Investing 29 March 2022 00:11 UTC+08:00 28 March FX Trade Recap [+8%]As expected, was able to get in a long on our M15 Demand zone marked out before the session. Didn't like the price action forming late into the session so I took out 80% partial profits at take profit level 1 to secure a total of 8 RR for today. Left 20% of my position on to run to our 2nd take profit level and 1H Supply Zone marked in our M15 breakdown RealisedGains Investing RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 19:31 UTC+08:00 29th March Forex updateEUR/USD M15Closed out my entire long position from last night as stated when price reached the 1H Supply zone. (Overall +11. 7%)After putting in a series of Higher highs today, the price narrative is now confirmed bullish so as of now we can look to long the market again from the new M15 Demand zone. The potential take profit areas will be the new M15 Supply zone above (conservative) & the current 4H high at 1. 1370 (aggressive). Still, I will be wary of a reversal to the downside as price had created a trendline of liquidity (aka stop loss orders waiting to be taken out) on its way up. Unknown RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 19:39 UTC+08:00 29th March Crypto Update:If you're day trading Crypto $BTC I think we'll form a consolidation wedge here soon, go for shorts at resistance & longs at support. Both works. Just be patient with your entries. Long Support: 47155-47255, SL 46855Short Resistance: 47895-47955, SL 48085You can long support and take profits at resistance or short resistance and take profit at the support for each. Expect to play at this region for awhile. Once in profits just shift SL into Profits. Unknown RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 19:49 UTC+08:00 Okay, we just got here sooner than expected. Looking for shorts at this region. . . Please ladder in slowly & respect the stop loss 👌🏼 Unknown RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 19:54 UTC+08:00 29th March Crypto Update:$BTC Shorts at 47955 laddered slowly, SL around 48085-48250. Possible we wick through 48k but I think we will retrace later today. These are shorter time frame swing trades possible 1-2 days. Targeting closes on support for a safe exit at 47550-47585, potentially 47155-47255. Shift SL in TP after maybe an hour. RealisedGains Investing RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 20:56 UTC+08:00 29th March Crypto Update:Can now put SL in Take Profit at entry 47955~ Take profits regions prospectively already mentioned earlier above, will update later for more exact figures! Unknown RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 21:01 UTC+08:00 Generally for Stops it depends on your risk tolerance. Normally I will put a range & then this one is up to your own discretion. I am inclined to advise laddering slower and having a healthier stop loss so you have room to breathe. We should still be heading down since we got rejected so just sticking with the plan 👌🏼 RealisedGains Investing RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 21:23 UTC+08:00 29th March FX updateEUR/USD 4HPrice has pushed up significantly without getting to our buy area (M15 Demand zone) and now it is currently facing rejection from the 4H Structural Highs. Narrative is still bullish but Price is too high to get in a long at nearby buy areas right now. However, if Price changes character to bearish on M15 time frame at the current rejection area, we can get ready to find areas to get in some quick sells instead. RealisedGains Investing RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 21:42 UTC+08:00 Put ladders for short closes at 47555-47585 to take profit for the safe TP region (50% close is fine too, up to you), once we break under 47630 put a stop limit (trigger price 47630, limit price 47650) at that price so even when we shoot back up you can immediately take profit but give it the chance to run down as well. Unknown RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 21:53 UTC+08:00 Start closing or put stop loss in TP 👌🏼, 50% trade close. Done for the day ✌🏼 Unknown RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 21:54 UTC+08:00 Can honestly close all also and look to reshort, up to you! Unknown RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 21:58 UTC+08:00 29th March Crypto Update:For $BTC Re-shorts 47760-47850, only do this if you are in profits already & do not open more than your previous TP-ed size. Use existing profits to buffer this new re-short, place an SL above this re-short region. We already got our trade for today so anything else is just icing. Watching FX as well. Nothing much else for today. RealisedGains Investing RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 22:55 UTC+08:00 29th March FX Update:Price seems to be rejecting off from 4H structural highs here after price changes character (CHoCH) to temporary bearish state. Thus, Sells are now valid from both M15 Supply zones (with lower time frames confirmation) and can look to target 1st take profit level 1 and leave some runners until M15 Demand Zone at the bottom. RealisedGains Investing 30 March 2022 00:05 UTC+08:00 Look for the second TP right now at 47185-47255 as I mentioned, market extremely volatile today. You can also flip a long here at D with the SL mentioned around 46. 8. Roughly we are going to be playing this range, since we got a big move yesterday. Unknown 30 March 2022 00:12 UTC+08:00 Close TP is around 47185, flip long is about 47125-47165 I think. Put an SL below and play the range. My stance is to play the range from A, B, C, D, E waves but be quicker to cut longs with an SL and be more willing to hold shorts with a more flexible buffer at this region. I think after the consolidation wedge forms we will break down back under 46/47k in the long-term view. Unknown 30 March 2022 00:15 UTC+08:00 For $BTC We're at flip long region now, SL should be somewhere below the blue line. Ladder slowly as usual; I don't tend to trade so actively but after a big move like yesterday, volatility makes this quite profitable to earn. Unknown 30 March 2022 00:23 UTC+08:00 Place SL in TP, we running this to region E (hypothetically 47621-47741, will update later). Unknown 30 March 2022 00:36 UTC+08:00 EUR/USD FX update:Would have gotten stopped out by 2 pips if entered a short at the first supply zone. I personally did not enter the trade as price action on the lower time frames (1minute) was not very clean. To me, the Supply zone at the top is still valid to trade from as there is a build up of liquidity just right below it. Not much opportunities today as price looks like it is currently in an indecision phase for tonight's NY session so we stay cash. Still up over 10RR on the week, going to stay patient. As for concerns on how to go about trading this strategy effectively for FX and others too, a new guide will be coming out soon so not to worry! Unknown 30 March 2022 00:50 UTC+08:00 Get ready for exits. We got a perfect long entry at 47125-47165. This exit make sure to stagger them out 47569-47737. Potentially can flip a short but place a further out SL for this next short. Maybe 48. 2k even. Use the profits as buffer and of course, stick to your same size. RealisedGains Investing 30 March 2022 02:39 UTC+08:00 Did get some exits this time round. Just exiting longs at the moment, not entering shorts yet. In that whole range I gave previously, use your longs to ladder out into flips short much deeper in. Just exit and take profits first. Might do a guide on how to ladder & utilise stops cause I feel sometimes that's arguably more important than technicals. RealisedGains Investing 30 March 2022 03:47 UTC+08:00 30th March Crypto Update: Finally got the 47. 7k. . . Exit Full TP on longs and laddering in new shorts now for $BTC - look for E as an exit off my previous drawing. Think this will be the last one for today, generally not so active - but might do a high frequency account soon ✌🏼 Unknown 30 March 2022 03:51 UTC+08:00 Also I don't generally like the last wave too much. So I think i'll just punt a small one & call it a day. Depends on the setup. . . RealisedGains Investing 30 March 2022 09:52 UTC+08:00 30th March Crypto Update:Still in this last short from 47. 7k. Took some nice gains yesterday, holding this short down since like I said, it's small. Wave E tends to he extended or the most dangerous, hence why I wasn't looking for longs already. RealisedGains Investing RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 10:01 UTC+08:00 Very prospective analysis I did on March 28th, it's not going to freefall so don't trade this too crazily, just some support regions I wrote. . . take it with a pinch of salt. I expect a short to 46. 3k and possibly 45k region. This is for the longer term swing setups and also regions I am looking for swing longs. Also please respect stop losses for each. RealisedGains Investing RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 11:38 UTC+08:00 To breakdown last night swing/day trades:It was an initial 48k short into 47. 5k to take profit and then re-short at 47. 7k into 47. 1k flip long into a flip short 47. 7k. Think it was a perfect setup 4-5 waves according to this initial drawing! RealisedGains Investing RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 20:39 UTC+08:00 30th March Update:Still holding on to that last short from 47. 7k. . . aiming for 46. 1-46. 3k to close, have a SL at entry 👌🏼 RealisedGains Investing RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 21:06 UTC+08:00 30th March Forex update:EUR/USD 4HPrice has finally made new 4H structural highs. We can look to scalp some quick longs from the 2 valid demand zones if price comes into it and changes character to bullish in the zone on the M15. Will provide an update if that happens, then we can start opening longs from valid demand zones. But looking at the big picture for EUR/USD, we want to see if price can come into our 4H supply zone soon & reject from there to continue EUR/USD's bearish run on the Higher time frame narrative. RealisedGains Investing RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 21:55 UTC+08:00 Forex UpdatePrice just had a change of character to bullish on the M15, we can look for longs from the two zones marked out now but always better to execute with confirmation on the lower time frames (Choch on the 1 minute) Unknown RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 22:05 UTC+08:00 30th March Crypto Update: Under 46. 7k put a SL to take profit, possibly let it run but put an SL there as it runs down to lock in profits ✌🏼 Unknown RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 22:06 UTC+08:00 (Repost) For those that are interested to know how to conduct confirmation on the lower time frame with choch to significantly improve your Risk to Reward Ratios. If you are interested to learn more to improve your trading, we will be pushing out more educational content soon in our upcoming PDF guides so do keep a look out! RealisedGains Investing 31 March 2022 00:17 UTC+08:00 30th March Forex End of Session Update: Price action has just been very choppy the past 2 hours so we aren't able to get into any high probability trades (longs) at our selected point of interests. Let's hope there's more clean opportunities tomorrow 👍🏻 RealisedGains Investing 31 March 2022 20:57 UTC+08:00 31st March Forex Update:EUR/USD 15MPrice is visiting a strong 4H Demand Zone right now and if we follow the higher time frame narrative, we should get a good bounce from here up to the 4H Supply Zone. However, for a higher probability set-up, Im waiting for price to first perform a change of character to bullish sentiment on the M15 here before finding a good demand zone to long from. Will wait to see what happens in the next hour and update accordingly for tonight's session. RealisedGains Investing 31 March 2022 23:01 UTC+08:00 Forex EUR/USD updatePrice has finally shown its first sign of being bullish after coming into our 4H demand zone. We can now look to open a long if price comes back into our new M15 Demand zone and take it all the way up to the 4H Supply zone above. RealisedGains Investing 1 April 2022 01:27 UTC+08:00 We are here!! At Closing in on 45. 5k, time to start looking for closes on $BTC! Unknown 1 April 2022 01:28 UTC+08:00 Hope y'all held to here. . . this is also kind of why I just didn't bother closing the last few days and gave the opinion to hold. . . RealisedGains Investing 1 April 2022 01:46 UTC+08:00 Unknown 1 April 2022 01:48 UTC+08:00 What I mean by this:Crypto (so far we are only mostly doing $BTC, but I will expand to at least $ETH)Altcoins (of the bat, $LUNA, $AXS, $AVAX, $ADA etc)Stocks (so far just doing $ROKU, $TSLA, $ABNB, but I’ll allow requests in the future)Forex (just starting this out)Funds (Vanguard, ARK)Very limited by time right now, also why I choose to charge so little for fun. In the future, I will be expanding to discord and using bots to facilitate analysis requests as well as membership. I’m very close to finishing this up! RealisedGains Investing 1 April 2022 02:08 UTC+08:00 1 April Crypto Update:Idea would probably be to close at the (Eventually Safe at 45315-45511) Region and go for an even smaller re-short (I'll give the number i'm looking at) *just practising safe risk management* then aim for the (Eventually probably region at 43655-43811) to flip Long. Unknown 1 April 2022 02:10 UTC+08:00 I will also open up this group to discussions later on when I go on to discord so community members can interact but i'll have to prospectively grow this a fair bit bigger first and also to engage bots/moderators. All in the pipeline but I do have my own outside stuff i'm busy with at the moment. Bear with me. . . RealisedGains Investing RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 02:23 UTC+08:00 For those in on this trade. Getting the ladders in slowly all the way from 45. 5k to 45. 3k to flip into a long. Go slow on these ladders and have a SL placed! 🤙🏻 Use profits to buffer. RealisedGains Investing RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 03:25 UTC+08:00 EUR/USD Forex updateLooks like the trade wasn't valid but we could have not taken it too as it was already close to the end of our trading period (9pm-12am). Anytime after 12am, volume in the market starts to die down and price often becomes too choppy to manage our trades (i. e. adjust SL) properly. We go again tomorrow 🤙🏼 Unknown RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 03:28 UTC+08:00 Just my 2 cents, you can also opt to put a trailing SL under 45. 7k in a bit like I mentioned. . . so basically we let it run down and give it the chance to, but be ready to take profits since we close to my support regions already. I expect there to be some relief soon. I'll at least close majority when we get into 45315-45511 and flip a small long with a tight SL. If all these methodologies seem confusing for you. Not to worry. . . Going to release a series of videos on a new website on how to specifically ladder & place SLs soon. Existing users in this chat will get it free. Will charge new users, perks for joining early ✌️ RealisedGains Investing RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 03:48 UTC+08:00 1 April Crypto Update:Closed all Shorts, loaded some in at 45511-45485. Flipped Long already. Generally I close shorts slightly earlier than my areas of flipping. It's just a laddered close into flip. Unknown RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 03:50 UTC+08:00 Aiming for 46. 3k to re-short prospectively with a flexible stop and slower laddering. Like I said earlier, this next re-short will be to aim for my 43655-43811 region but I'll drop the size once again. Using profits to buffer. I'm chill 🤷🏻‍♂️ Unknown RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 03:52 UTC+08:00 Prospectively hold this long to 46050 and close there then slowly ladder in shorts at 46189-46328. I already got my (Eventually Safe) Close so I am happy. Anything else is just icing I say. Unknown RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 04:05 UTC+08:00 If we dip further i'll load in till 45. 2/45. 3k and then stop. Just a small long punt. Flexible SL for the time being. I'm never without an SL cause I have erratic fears of markets just flash crashing. One of my principles of trading. Will share this too on the site. RealisedGains Investing RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 04:57 UTC+08:00 Trailing SL in profit placed now (Red Area), riding to 46. 1k (Should be closing here), then I decide. . . I'm going to ladder shorts a bit more spread out and slighter deeper 46488-46789. I'll close longs before I get into flip shorts. Just my principle. RealisedGains Investing RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 10:38 UTC+08:00 Ah stops triggered! Luckily I did put a SL in TP at 46. 6k. Still a decent day yesterday, Ideally I just TP at different ranges as opposed to taking so many trades. I think part of the problem of doing these short-term trades is that I lose sight of the bigger picture. Was attempting to re-short but didn't fill cause I fell asleep. Problem is also these odd hours I sometimes just am too tired. Might go back to slightly longer time frame plays. RealisedGains Investing RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 11:17 UTC+08:00 Very strong POC coming up at 43655 - 43811 for $BTC. Gotta look out for this area as a region of support! I'll only consider going for longs under 44k, not going to hastily catch a falling knife. RealisedGains Investing RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 20:46 UTC+08:00 1st April Forex EUR/USD UpdateTo be honest, not much happening right now across major fx pairs, many of them have just been consolidating and stuck in a range. However, I did spot an interesting setup on EU pair on the M15, where we may see price take out trendline liquidity and sell off from a clean 1H point of interest. Other than that, will just be waiting for a breakout of this range for tonight's session before looking for a trade/directional bias. RealisedGains Investing 2 April 2022 02:20 UTC+08:00 Looks like no trade setups available too tonight. Volume in the market was just really bad today. Oh well, great thing is we're still up over 10RR this week just on Forex alone so I can't really complain 🤷🏻‍♀️ Let's just hope the fx markets break out of its ranges next week so theres more opportunities. RealisedGains Investing 2 April 2022 13:26 UTC+08:00 2 April Crypto Update: Didn't manage to get a long for $BTC here. Will attempt a re-short later on this weekend. At least we took the short profits at 45. 2k, so good enough. . . Still think we see 43k again. But I generally don't like to trade weekends too much. Not much liquidity from big funds. RealisedGains Investing 2 April 2022 13:43 UTC+08:00 2 April Crypto Update:I think i'll punt a small re-short at 46878-46950 for $BTC with a SL at 47. 3k. Got a bit smaller on leverage for this one as we are still establishing a range. Minimally we should get a break under 46k I feel. So can opt for a safe TP there but this short can possibly let it run. R:R here is 1:3 risking a $300 upside move for at least $900 down to take profit. RealisedGains Investing 2 April 2022 20:47 UTC+08:00 Here just got in. . . watching this small area of resistance carefully! Holding this awhile & shifting SL in a bit. Same protocol! RealisedGains Investing 2 April 2022 21:03 UTC+08:00 In all honesty, even though I didn't close at the exact bottom at 44. 2k, taking the short from 47. 7k to 45. 5k is good enough. After trading for awhile, I know better than to hold a position too long or adjust my profit regions too much. It's a good thing we took the day break as it flew back to 47k earlier today as well. Just got back into my short here. Will start monday off with a stocks update! RealisedGains Investing 3 April 2022 00:10 UTC+08:00 Holding it down, SL at entry already RealisedGains Investing 3 April 2022 00:42 UTC+08:00 3 April Crypto Update: Off the bat, i'm looking at 45255-45415 as a decent area of support. Long Run we should probably test 43 lows still, hypothetically 43. 2-43. 4k, but i'll put a trailing SL rather than take profits sometimes as I believe the overarching trend (like big big trend) is still down for the time being. Going to be MIA tomorrow to work on some new material, Full updates on Stocks, Forex & Crypto on Monday. RealisedGains Investing 3 April 2022 03:24 UTC+08:00 Got the perfect short at 46855 & we did get a good break under 46k; on the money!💥 Unknown 3 April 2022 03:29 UTC+08:00 We did break under 46k like I said, anyway closing is up to you. This short was barely any red or pain suffered, just how I like it 👌🏼I already gave my levels I am looking at. Will try to do more active ideas and expand on other assets when there are more members in this group. Will take tomorrow off unless anything major happens! RealisedGains Investing 4 April 2022 15:54 UTC+08:00 4th April Crypto & Stocks Update:I am still holding on to my shorts. Not really concerned with this movement. Think we’re going to be ranging here once again for a couple days. I’ll be taking shorts at resistance but no longs on supports. Think the trend is down on a mid-term time frame. I’m still in my short so not re-shorting…Both 46355 and 46785-46855 are the resistances for this range. I’ll probably opt to close some at 45030-45155. But I’ll hold some for even lower. Looking at macro conditions with Interest Rate Hikes next month looming. Potentially we could revisit 41. 3-41. 7k again. $TSLA as I mentioned in the other group we should see some re-tracement down to 1030 but I don’t see any cause of concern in the next few weeks for any lower than that. I am just not buying calls at these prices right now though. RealisedGains Investing 4 April 2022 16:33 UTC+08:00 4th April Commodities & Forex:The global economy is still largely affected by rising inflation rates so its a good time to look at safe haven assets like gold, although gains will be modest. It also just bounced right off a strong fibonacci level at 1890 last week. I will be bullish if it can continue to go up, preferbly past the 1965 levels. For this week's outlook on EUR/USD, all I am interested in now is for price to break out of the range it is in before establishing a directional bias. Other than that, a crucial price level to look at for price to make a huge reversal up to new structural highs will be at 1. 10050 to 1. 09700. Will be monitoring price action in that zone closely. RealisedGains Investing 4 April 2022 19:43 UTC+08:00 4th April Forex EUR/USD UpdateAs predicted on the weekly outlook earlier today, Price is now approaching an extreme point of interest/Demand Zone. (Meaning the gains could be quite huge depending on how long you want to hold the trade - normally I would take partials to end the night and leave runners for higher take profit levels)So for tonight's session, both zones are valid to take a trade from. But for a higher probability trade, wait for price to perform a Change of Character (CHoCH) on the M5 or M15 time frame RealisedGains Investing 4 April 2022 20:58 UTC+08:00 Price has changed character to temporary bullish already and I'm just entered a long at 1. 09968 (which is in the zone marked out). Let's see if this trade plays out well from here as major zones like this tends to be manipulated quite a bit but its part of the game we play 🤷🏻‍♀️ Unknown 4 April 2022 21:02 UTC+08:00 For a conservative SL i'll be looking at 1. 09750 but personally I am willing to take more risk for higher rewards for my strategy on fx so my SL will be much tighter at 1. 09950 Unknown 4 April 2022 21:14 UTC+08:00 The setup looks like its failing for now, will exit the trade at BE now and re-enter again later when price shows another entry. RealisedGains Investing 5 April 2022 00:38 UTC+08:00 For $BTC, as I mentioned, still in the short. . . If we get low 45ks, I will close some off. Unknown 5 April 2022 00:39 UTC+08:00 I did say 46355 was the resistance. Still think we trend down! Nothing much to add. Hope you guys have been making money. Remember to close some at support! Unknown 5 April 2022 00:42 UTC+08:00 For Forex end of session update,Took a BE today. Market taking its own sweet time to react from our POI tonight. . typical monday in fx though, where markets are still establishing a direction for the week. Still, it looks like prices may dip further to our bottom zone, will see if we can catch a trade from there tmr night. RealisedGains Investing 5 April 2022 01:47 UTC+08:00 At 45. 2k now! Getting ready to close! Held this short since 46855 ✌🏻 Told you guys not to close 🎯 Leaving some for lower but closing at least 50% here. Just risk management. We can always re-short if it bounces. Always be taking profits ✍🏻 RealisedGains Investing 5 April 2022 02:09 UTC+08:00 45145. Fully closed 60% of my positions from my 46855 short 2 days back! Unknown 5 April 2022 02:11 UTC+08:00 5th April 2022 Crypto Update:Gave the numbers here. Opting to close at 45030-45155 (50-60%). Probably will still go down further in the larger time frame but I do like to take profits especially on futures/leveraged positions. Good enough for me! I might look for re-shorts tomorrow. RealisedGains Investing 5 April 2022 14:44 UTC+08:00 We did run up to 46. 8k today again, I think we still see lower into the 41. 3k-41. 7k region like I mentioned possibly. I am probably going for more shorts but i'll use yesterday profits as a buffer. Closed a little over 60% of my shorts yesterday at 45. 1k, Looking for re-shorts around this 46. 8k region right now. Adding slowly. Will re-short my full amount I closed yesterday. RealisedGains Investing 5 April 2022 21:31 UTC+08:00 5th April Forex EUR/USD Update:Analysis are all on the charts. But generally price still moving slowly, maybe because of high impact news coming up soon in the fx space (9:45pm) so will see how price reacts to it later and update again if there's a setup for tonight! Unknown 5 April 2022 21:34 UTC+08:00 5th April Crypto Update: Loaded back in my $BTC short already. Only opened whatever I closed yesterday. . . being disciplined with my size! Think we go to 41k-43k eventually. RealisedGains Investing 5 April 2022 22:27 UTC+08:00 5th April Crypto Update: When I wrote it here, I think price was 46. 7k. Generally, I think what most people have difficulty with is their stop losses. Think yesterday's run up to 47. 5k actually killed most stops already, should just be down from here. I will attempt a flip long later but i'll watch this movement the next few days. RealisedGains Investing 6 April 2022 11:27 UTC+08:00 I will probably hold this $BTC short. Entered at an average price of 46755, we are now back at 45. 1k. Essentially to breakdown the last few trades: Short 46855, Close 45155, Re-Short 46755, holding this for now. . . Unknown 6 April 2022 11:29 UTC+08:00 Also, Free PDF Trading Guides are up on the website already. Will release some of the video lessons free as well & clean up the website more soon! (www. findingalpha. org) RealisedGains Investing 6 April 2022 20:09 UTC+08:00 Looking at this for my closes. Anything under 44k I am closing my shorts. Will prospectively flip long there but I am gonna go work out the numbers later. Will also watch the OI & Liquidation on the day itself. RealisedGains Investing 6 April 2022 21:16 UTC+08:00 6th April Forex EUR/USD Analysis:Price did not want to respect the demand zone I was looking at yesterday. . . so the bias has turned bearish now. I'll only look for shorts in the closest 4H supply if price on the M15 shows me a CHoCH pattern, expecting price to drop to the lowest zone. RealisedGains Investing 6 April 2022 21:55 UTC+08:00 Honestly I am going to start closing slowly and putting a stop loss to take profit here. . . Good enough already. Basically stop limit, (reduce only) so any break above 44550 will trigger buys to close my short up to 44600. Trigger Price 44565 Limit Price 44595. 43. 8-44. 1k is my support I am looking at. Will take 90% close there and leave the remainder to run down. I am looking to close majority already. Unknown 6 April 2022 22:01 UTC+08:00 $BTC Orders sets at 43. 8-44. 1k laddered already. . . Gonna just close, held this short since 46. 8k, quite numb already. Will not flip long just yet. $TSLA looks to be filling that gap down to 1030. Think we hold this region awhile. . . nothing too concerning atm. RealisedGains Investing 6 April 2022 22:54 UTC+08:00 Fully Closed 43. 8k, all cleared. 100% out of shorts! RealisedGains Investing 6 April 2022 23:15 UTC+08:00 Potentially punting a very very low low leveraged long at this support region. See if this region holds for awhile more then i'll go for it. Am also going to be doing livestreams for Crypto, FX, Stocks in the future, trying out the settings now. RealisedGains Investing 7 April 2022 12:25 UTC+08:00 6th April Crypto Update:For $BTC, gonna punt a very very small long at this price region 43k, think we get 44. 4k later on. trend to me is still down but i expect a short squeeze/relief. RealisedGains Investing 7 April 2022 14:44 UTC+08:00 Think we break above 44k later today, anything around 44. 5k consider closing. . . Will update later! RealisedGains Investing 7 April 2022 17:35 UTC+08:00 This current PA region for $BTC not for trading, next few movements too small, not worth to trade for such poor R:R. Still sticking with a very very small size. Already closed all my shorts yesterday at 43. 8k, now in an extremely small long. We either wait for a retest of lows at C, under 43k, if that holds, we buy. Other option is wait for above 44k to short. In-between I am not trading. Will look at other assets. RealisedGains Investing 7 April 2022 20:05 UTC+08:00 Still in Long. . . Not big on size but I'll close my longs at around 44. 5k! RealisedGains Investing 7 April 2022 20:33 UTC+08:00 Chart as seen earlier and now. Think we get something like this now as we range and then a wick above 44k later. Market sentiments are bad now. Already mentioned before the FOMC hearings won't be good news this year. . . Unknown 7 April 2022 20:33 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 7 April 2022 21:00 UTC+08:00 7th April Forex updateDon’t see any immediate clean & high RR setups available other than the one marked up yesterday. Volumes tend to be low a day after FOMC hearings so most probably not going to have any trades tonight on fx. . . RealisedGains Investing 8 April 2022 00:28 UTC+08:00 Unedited, same points. RealisedGains Investing 8 April 2022 10:22 UTC+08:00 Still same points. . . Waiting. . . Not highly leveraged; Just took a few small swing trades. Trying to wait out for the bigger move. The longer this holds, the more likely we get a short squeeze/relief rally up! RealisedGains Investing 8 April 2022 18:05 UTC+08:00 I'll be placing an SL around C-A. My size isn't that large for this long so i'm still opting to hold it out. . . Already played the A to B to C to D to E. . . Using that profit to buffer this long. Still think we get a squeeze up first. Too many late shorters should be punished. RealisedGains Investing 9 April 2022 00:06 UTC+08:00 End of week Forex Update:Pretty uneventful week with market not respecting the strong zones I was looking at and just moving really slowly around that area (most probably to manipulate retail traders trying to fomo into a trade in the zone as price action was just so damn messy). Hopefully next week's price action will be better! RealisedGains Investing 9 April 2022 01:31 UTC+08:00 9th April Update:Stopped out of my long already at 43. 1k; Not the worst, considering we took the initial few waves and the previous bigger moves. Sitting out unless there's an opportunity to punt a long at a stronger support later. Did also mention to make sure this long was small. . . not a very bullish market right now. RealisedGains Investing 9 April 2022 04:23 UTC+08:00 That was a good stop, got out on a very small loss considering SL was placed on C-A as suggested. Think we gotta look at 41. 1k-41. 4k for next support. RealisedGains Investing 9 April 2022 23:35 UTC+08:00 Same numbers I am looking at. I think we will bounce off high 40k, and low 41k. This is a very keen area of interest. Will do a full update on Monday. Weekend PA is a little more dangerous to trade cause institutional liquidity will be absent. RealisedGains Investing 11 April 2022 03:46 UTC+08:00 11th April Crypto Update:Current Price 43. 1k, where we got stopped out at entry the previous time. I don't mind a re-long attempt here. Reason I chose to just get stopped out and not hold the long is because I don't want the stress of holding an underwater long position throughout the weekend anyway. However, I think this is a second opportunity to catch a move for a squeeze up. I do think we are going to squeeze out some shorts tomorrow. We will have to tap liquidity above 44k at least once before going down. Regions for long close and/or flip short would be 44035-44068 (Likely)I will go for re-shorts at both of these resistance but with a strategy of laddering in both entries and putting a stop loss at entry after each rejection. No matter what I would want to hold a short into the upcoming FOMC hearing I feel. RealisedGains Investing 11 April 2022 18:15 UTC+08:00 We're going to be ranging in-between these 2 regions the next few daysSupport: 40. 8-41. 5kResistance: Anything above 44k, for shortingLike I said I am looking for a short into the FOMC hearing, but not here. . . R:R too poor for me. Unknown 11 April 2022 18:21 UTC+08:00 Prospective. Will watch if these waves validate. Think we get a squeeze before a full drop. Still reliant on the hearing and recessionary talks. RealisedGains Investing 11 April 2022 19:01 UTC+08:00 11 April Forex EUR/USD update:Price is turning bullish now after reacting off of the last Demand zone and forming 2 consecutive higher highs. As it also left some liquidty on the trendline drawn below to be swept, it looks like an ideal long setup here. We can look for longs from either of the demand zones marked out. RealisedGains Investing 11 April 2022 23:13 UTC+08:00 We are at edge of the support 40. 8k, I think we get a move to 42. 6-42. 8k possibly. . . Resistance at 42. 6-42. 8 (50% Chance)Resistance at 43. 6-44. 1k (30% Chance)If the markets do give you a chance at the 2nd resistance, not a bad place for a long-term short! Unknown 11 April 2022 23:14 UTC+08:00 Also, back at 3 digits $TSLA. As I said ✌🏼 Unknown 11 April 2022 23:19 UTC+08:00 Did exit all of my $TSLA I bought at $780 earlier at $970-1010 and took small puts at 1080. Will close later and be a buyer once I chart where it bottoms. . . Sometimes its good to step away, I have been ignoring stocks for awhile cause I already took profits and it ran slightly away without me. Just being patient! Unknown 11 April 2022 23:23 UTC+08:00 Don't go heavy on longs or at all, just remember the bigger trend is still down. So you can just wait for the resistances to short. . . See if the market gives it to us! RealisedGains Investing 12 April 2022 20:23 UTC+08:00 12 April Forex Update:Price not reacting strongly off of the 1st demand zone earlier today, looks like we are headed down to test the last demand zone. But since there's significant CPI news in 7 mins time, I would not take a risk entry there first. Will wait for more confirmation when price visits the zone then update accordingly. RealisedGains Investing 14 April 2022 03:29 UTC+08:00 14th April Update:Think we do get 42. 6-42. 8k! If you are in your longs still, think it's okay to hold and put a trailing SL now. If we do hit those resistances, you can place laddered shorts there and closes on your long. General trend is still down. RealisedGains Investing 14 April 2022 21:21 UTC+08:00 14th April Forex update EUR/USD Finally some cleaner price action for me to consider some trades in FX major pairs. Currently looking to confirm a long from the zone we are in now with a CHoCH on the M1. Have to manage the stop losses aggressively though if you are going in as there's quite a bit of news coming out soon tonight. RealisedGains Investing 14 April 2022 21:52 UTC+08:00 Damn. . price just melted. That's one loss for the week. Price narrative has definitely turned bearish now. Will just wait for Price to play itself out first after tonight's news and see if there's any shorts setup. RealisedGains Investing 16 April 2022 02:34 UTC+08:00 Still waiting for my regions. Don't jump the gun. Generally, PA like this is a no trade zone so not much updates. Waiting for stronger supports & resistances!Will look and pivot into stocks next week if there's nothing moving on Crypto. RealisedGains Investing 18 April 2022 02:09 UTC+08:00 Still short-biased, but I don't want to short here. Waiting for the Market Open. . . Will give a full update tomorrow as well as for my stock positions! RealisedGains Investing 18 April 2022 03:48 UTC+08:00 For Crypto:Current $BTC Price: 40. 2kI honestly think we get a relief move up before a continuation downwards, it's just very dangerous to long here with the global conditions. However, if you want you can punt a small long. I would prefer to wait for 42. 8k and above to start laddering in shorts. Otherwise just holding in cash. For Stocks:Most Counters haven't reached a floor yet. Think $TSLA needs to test the 800s region to get a strong proper bounce. Can hold the $1080 puts further. Generally be buying at least 2-4 months on your expirations if you can afford it. Easier to hold this way! Unknown 18 April 2022 03:52 UTC+08:00 Literally started moving in the 5 minutes as I was typing this out 😅 Think there's more upside for $BTC. Still not a bad position for a small long if you want, significant resistance only above 42. 7k. Bear in mind, this is just a relief rally before further downside imo. This means you have to be quick while taking profit if you are in longs. Just my take on it! RealisedGains Investing 18 April 2022 22:54 UTC+08:00 It is a bank holiday so thought I would share some educational content for you guys instead on why I also use the "Smart Money Concept" (SMC) to trade (fx) markets. Take a read to improve your understanding to why the market moves the way it does!To prevent confusion, the retail trading pattern / support resistance levels DO WORK, but in my experience one has to go a little deeper than just simple support and resistance lines to be able to trade off them effectively & SMC is a great way to help yourself understand why price moves the way it does instead of just thinking we got manipulated when trades don't go our way. If interested, more resources are available on our site for you guys! RealisedGains Investing 19 April 2022 03:31 UTC+08:00 19th April Update:For Crypto;A move to 42. 2-42. 7k on $BTC would be healthy. Don't think we get a market crash until the FOMC hearing. I'm still bearish on Crypto Markets but I believe we still a final relief rally. . . Numbers are the same! Just being patient, the lack of recent movement means not much updates here tbh. For Stocks;$SHOP & $CLOV being hammered while $TSLA finds some relief finally. Not a terrible price now for a $TSLA put at $1004. Don't think this we see 4 digits for that much longer. I do see this falling to 800s once again actually. RealisedGains Investing 19 April 2022 22:03 UTC+08:00 19th April FOREX EUR/USD Update:Quite a few straightforward setups that I can see playing out tonight despite being in range still. As price is still pretty bearish on 4H and M15, would be more interested in the shorts though but a long with extra confirmation (CHoCH) will be fine too. Unknown 19 April 2022 22:18 UTC+08:00 But on the higher time frames (4H), if you want to swing trade (typically 1-2 weeks) this pair instead of day trade, I would take a close look at opening shorts in these 2 zones to ride prices down as price will remain overall bearish as long as these 2 zones are not broken. RealisedGains Investing 19 April 2022 22:40 UTC+08:00 19th April Crypto Update:For Crypto $BTC; Watch for a break over 42k to close longs and potentially look for shorts. I'll watch closely while we get there can ladder exits at 42. 2-42. 7k 🤙🏼 Not much trades last week but i'm focusing on higher win rate. Don't think we have lost much or at all tbh. Just be conscious of your leverage and be disciplined. Trend still down until we clear the hearings imo, don't be fooled. RealisedGains Investing 20 April 2022 14:04 UTC+08:00 If any of you has happen to set a limit on the first sell area, price action does not look good in there at the moment, I would just set SL to BE here and wait for the next sell area. RealisedGains Investing 20 April 2022 19:58 UTC+08:00 Laddered closes here at 42. 2k, start flipping small shorts closer to 42. 7k ✌🏼 Unknown 20 April 2022 20:00 UTC+08:00 I think we have 1 proper tap and that's it. We also have $TSLA earnings tomorrow I'll have to check up on that along with the hearings news! Willbe doing an Instagram Page & some extra guides on the Website out next week. 👍🏻 RealisedGains Investing 20 April 2022 21:15 UTC+08:00 20th April FOREX EUR/USD updateTonight's NY session we can look for both longs and sells from these areas with a proper M1 choch to confirm our entries of course. I will be particularly more interested in a short at 1. 084 area though as there's nice liquidity lying there to be collected on the LTF. RealisedGains Investing 21 April 2022 09:18 UTC+08:00 If you are still in a sell order here from last night, do set SL to BE. (Might take you out but that's how I manage my SL) The following are the TP levels you can follow if you've entered on the M15. RealisedGains Investing 21 April 2022 17:17 UTC+08:00 these numbers still present significant resistance. same idea. sticking with the idea that the rest of the year will still trend down. i have no invalidation range. just doing small laddered shorts on these resistances! RealisedGains Investing 21 April 2022 21:31 UTC+08:00 here i am starting to look at shorts for $BTC; longs fully closed, short-term flipping short! RealisedGains Investing 21 April 2022 22:19 UTC+08:00 21st April Update EUR/USDPrice reacted perfectly off my M15 supply marked out on Tues for a 11RR trade but I didnt take it as was outside my hours. . oh well but we stick to the plan and timing, setups will come eventually. With this high RR strat, I just need 2/3 good trades/month to reap good profits from the markets 👌🏻👌🏻Don’t be a slave to the markets! RealisedGains Investing 22 April 2022 12:00 UTC+08:00 22 April Crypto Update:Got our 38-39k long close into a 42. 8k flip short yesterday! Looking at a lot lower as we get to the FOMC hearing. Opting to close 30-40% at B, and letting the rest run down. Potentially reopen-ing same size at C but will reassess there. SL for remaining size at Entry A. RealisedGains Investing 22 April 2022 21:30 UTC+08:00 22 April Forex EUR/USD UpdateAs mentioned, price has turned bearish and is melting down from the M15 supply zone I marked out on Tuesday. We can now look to open shorts down, ultimately targeting the two zones at the bottom. RealisedGains Investing 22 April 2022 22:21 UTC+08:00 Might get B soon 🫣 think it'll sweep the previous lows, then a mini bounce. Chart still holds! RealisedGains Investing 22 April 2022 22:39 UTC+08:00 Forex Update EUR/USDPrice actually did give me an entry with a solid CHoCH on the M1 after price reacted from my M15 supply zone. Already fully closed it at 7. 8RR though, knowing that it may well just retrace back to the zones at the top which seems like good point of interests according to my rules. But nice trade bagged in less than an hour 🤙🏿 RealisedGains Investing 23 April 2022 02:32 UTC+08:00 At B on the blue line, closing some here to de-risk but I do see us going lower later! Ladder out and hold the rest of the shorts or opt to re-short at C later if we get C. Not closing all, just 30-40% at B. RealisedGains Investing 25 April 2022 00:33 UTC+08:00 Still in shorts, haven't reached B yet. Also probably going to hold it down to low 30s. . . RealisedGains Investing 25 April 2022 00:51 UTC+08:00 A tap under 39k I think would be a good place to close for temporal relief, somewhere like 38. 6-38. 8k for $BTC! Unknown 25 April 2022 00:52 UTC+08:00 Okay. . . that took only a minute! Unknown 25 April 2022 00:53 UTC+08:00 Blue line hit, closing 30-40% in the regions stated and looking for re-shorts later! Unknown 25 April 2022 01:00 UTC+08:00 We just got our bounce. Issue with the charting is also I have to start charting on FTX because the numbers differ if charting on different platforms and with different liquidities and spreads. Do think we see a decent bounce here to C but C won't hold for long and then back down! RealisedGains Investing 25 April 2022 02:26 UTC+08:00 Watch for C. Same chart! Update tmr. . . RealisedGains Investing 25 April 2022 18:06 UTC+08:00 Just holding the rest of the shorts to low 30s. Honestly nothing much to update! If you're shorting alts or most stocks, should be the same. Still in $TSLA puts from 1080 as well! RealisedGains Investing 25 April 2022 21:34 UTC+08:00 Forex Update 25th April Price melted this afternoon during London session timing (2pm-ish) again. . New York sessions at night have been kinda bad the last month or so in terms of number of high probability setups. . But markets do get boring in stretches at times so not to worry, more setups will be coming eventually. But for now, these are the areas we can look to short from to ride the bear trend, unless price turns bullish from the Weekly Demand, then I'll update again on areas to long from. RealisedGains Investing 26 April 2022 21:26 UTC+08:00 Forex Update 26th April EUR/USDSorry for the late notice on today's trade guys, was actively getting onto a trade setup I saw when I opened the charts before session starts. Anyways, this will be a great case study (classic setup) to learn from to get high Rewards in Forex too so take a look! Unknown 26 April 2022 21:26 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 27 April 2022 01:39 UTC+08:00 C already hit, we are continuing the downtrend. . . Didn't opt to re-short, just holding the remainder of my shorts down. Think we see low 30s in May before the FOMC hearing. Prospectively i'm looking at 29-31k for $BTC as a support region. RealisedGains Investing 27 April 2022 02:24 UTC+08:00 Massive drop on $TSLA today. Like I mentioned still in puts from $1080 and anything above $1000 was good to open puts for me. Back to $890 now! Will try to do a video tomorrow! RealisedGains Investing 27 April 2022 21:18 UTC+08:00 27th April Forex EUR/USD update Huge huge selling pressure recently on this pair so will only be entertaining shorts until price shows bullish structure on the 4H. The zones marked out are the ones we can short from. The lowest one is definitely at a higher risk of being ran eventually but still valid with a CHoCH on the LTF. RealisedGains Investing 28 April 2022 17:32 UTC+08:00 Next FOMC hearing is on June 15-16. Till then I think we range for US Stocks & Crypto. . Potential swing longs soon at the low 800s for $TSLA!I am also not in total agreement that I/R hikes can go super high because the US Gov would then not be able to afford the I/R payments on the $30 Trillion National Debt, which is soon to be $100 Trillion. The Feds unfortunately have no choice but to keep I/R management within the 25-50 basis point range and taper it accordingly. Sure, the citizens have to suffer inflation but bringing it down too fast would cause the bankruptcy of the state if they can't pay sovereign debt off. RealisedGains Investing 28 April 2022 21:00 UTC+08:00 For forex, doesn't seem like there's any interesting setups tonight. But a textbook entry happened again this afternoon during London session which presented a 1:17RR trade. Did a case study on it anyways so if you're interested can take a look! The market always repeats itself. Market structure break, find your areas to trade from on the M1 after a CHoCH, enter trade. Booom 😮‍💨 Unknown 28 April 2022 21:00 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 29 April 2022 01:19 UTC+08:00 29th April Crypto Update:For Crypto, already closed what I wanted to close at this region. Holding the rest down. My style of trading involves a lot of waiting but I do believe it's more profitable in the long-term for me!Did not get C to re-short but still holding 60% in shorts from 42. 7k. Not panicking. . . Nothing unexpected here. Unknown 29 April 2022 01:23 UTC+08:00 Feb 29th US Stocks Update:Moving day. Closing $TSLA puts here at 865-870, flipping into calls temporarily - Waiting for a double bottom to form and for one more sweep of the lows to enter into calls 840-865 is a decent region to DCA calls with a flexible SL. Early on our SL has to be more flexible before switching to a trailing SL once we get profits. I think there's still time till the hearing and the interest rates hikes will be tapered slowly. Won't see an immediate market crash. Unknown 29 April 2022 01:28 UTC+08:00 Regarding the call options for $TSLA here. I do believe we see a relief rally into 900s for $TSLA but my belief is that the extenuating trend is still down. Once we get 900s I will watch very closely for a close. Off the bat, once I am fully in my positions I am going to put TP targets from 988-1028 and a loose trailing SL at 900 and once we get above 950 an extremely tight trailing SL. I am honestly happy with taking profits quickly for calls in a bearish market or recession climate. RealisedGains Investing RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 02:04 UTC+08:00 Not sure why I kept posting so many updates about a double bottom sweep for $TSLA and second guessed myself so much. I initially just wanted to enter lumpsum at 865, waiting for another sweep to $840 is just foolhardy and unnecessary. Not much difference when we waited so long for these prices. Now my average is about 870 instead of 865 but whatever. . . -,-Fully in my buy call postitions already here anyway, holding till $900 at least. Will stop pussyfooting. Plan is as written above. . . RealisedGains Investing RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 16:17 UTC+08:00 We indeed only had 1 proper tap above 42. 7k for $BTC 😅 Still in the short!Reason why I am still in this $BTC short: I want to protect this short as best I can. Sure, I can attempt to predict a support and re-short higher to increase profits BUT I am hesistant we get a lot of good bounces along the way down since there is no significant support region. Less stressful for me just holding it down and actively taking profits at each support with the percentage of TP depending on the strength of the support. Increased activity may come with increased profits but it also comes with increased stress. Learnt this the hard way in the past when I fat fingered large contracts. I am a day trader on some days depending on the setup but this larger time frame swing trading is a style that works for me. Higher probabilistic wins. Perhaps less profit. but less leverage. less button pushing. less stress. RealisedGains Investing RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 20:00 UTC+08:00 Pre-market opening at 890. 74 for $TSLA. Will watch very closely for a close or set a tight SL today. Don't like buying in this market 😅 RealisedGains Investing 30 April 2022 00:17 UTC+08:00 💥 bang $TSLA still holding strong! Good close on the puts yesterday at $865 to flip long and into calls. Loose SL at $900 and a tighter one as we approach $950. Been pretty good on my trades still! Hope all is good on your ends as well! Still happy taking profits. Will take some profits at both resistances cause I don't like buying too much in this market. . . RealisedGains Investing 30 April 2022 09:35 UTC+08:00 Got stopped out of $TSLA positions last night at $900. Also did say to take some profits at these resistances as well. Still think we're in a down-trend. Unfortunately didn't get in my re-shorts. . . Same as crypto I would prefer to just hold the position down instead of trying to time and buy. These bounces are to be honest too insignificant. RealisedGains Investing 3 May 2022 23:28 UTC+08:00 FOMC Hearing will be on May 3/4th, expecting a down market for the quarter. Still looking for re-opening of puts for $TSLA as well as holding my BTC short. Not adding to shorts just holding the initial. Closed my $860 call at $900 a couple days back so looking for puts now. If we get to 930-950 for $TSLA i'm actually going to be opening put options. RealisedGains Investing 4 May 2022 00:43 UTC+08:00 Laddering in some small puts here at $905 maybe 20-30% first for $TSLA. I think we're heavily reliant on the hearing news and although the possibility of a 50-75 basis point hike has already largely been priced into the market, I still think Powell might have more instore & choice words for us so expect volatility tomorrow. RealisedGains Investing 4 May 2022 02:49 UTC+08:00 Still in $BTC short from 42. 7k. . . Just holding this down through the hearing. In these market conditions: Still good to hold, I will only close on a very strong support. Looking at low 30s as I said but i'll judge macro conditions when we get there! RealisedGains Investing 4 May 2022 20:35 UTC+08:00 For Forex especially, major pairs have just been consolidating hard the past few days at HTF Point of Interests. This is Financial Institutions just waiting for post-FOMC tonight to bring prices to the levels they are looking at. We may see a bullish reversal here but really we just have wait for them to show their hands and react accordingly (we don't predict). So no fx trades for now! Unknown 4 May 2022 20:38 UTC+08:00 But here's a little educational material on how to deal with (bid-ask) Spreads for traders. If you haven't been doing this, you probably should! Especially if you are looking to be a scalper/day trader. Unknown 4 May 2022 20:39 UTC+08:00 For Crypto; Highest we can see is a sweep of 39. 5k-39. 7k and then I think we go back down. Trend still down. Not adding shorts but if you want at those prices you may. . . For me, just holding the originial short for $BTC. FOMC Hearing to me doesn't change anything. Macro trend still bearish. RealisedGains Investing 5 May 2022 04:02 UTC+08:00 Got our Crypto targets just! As well as laddering into $TSLA puts. As I mentioned earlier I am laddering slow into and after the hearing. I think this relief will not be too long. Still bearish bias on markets. Don't think we can rebound yet. RealisedGains Investing 5 May 2022 20:55 UTC+08:00 Same plan. $950 for $TSLA puts as well as 39. 7-39. 9k for $BTC shorts. These are decent resistance regions! Trend still down. Don't be fooled by this FOMC relief rally. RealisedGains Investing 5 May 2022 21:24 UTC+08:00 5 May Forex EUR/USD Update:Although price did see a relief rally post FOMC last night, it still wasn't able to break through a 4H Supply zone on the left. Will continue with the bearish narrative on the HTF and open shorts here on these zones if i do see confirmation on the LTF (M1 CHoCH). RealisedGains Investing 5 May 2022 22:06 UTC+08:00 Clean 39. 7k rejection for $BTC. If you're doing short-term put an SL in TP. This should be fine. I am shifting my SL on my short lower to here as well. RealisedGains Investing 6 May 2022 01:27 UTC+08:00 Hi guys! Some updates: Will be shifting all current existing members to discord and opening this group up to the public by tomorrow. This group henceforth will be used for more broad time frame market trading update and to share specific options and derivatives strategies. As well as serve as a open public track record log of my previous few trades. Livestreams henceforth will be done on Discord - (https://discord. gg/gF6Pu6wB). I prefer to use discord because there are bots there to moderate members, facilitate discussions and also will be doing livestreams there!If you're an existing member: Not to worry, if you don't know how to use Discord, i'll send you an email invite to the private discord channel tomorrow anyway. If you're a new member: will re-open slots to the livestream group on a private discord channel once I set everything up. RealisedGains Investing RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 02:33 UTC+08:00 As I mentioned before, looking at a lil lower into the 30s - think we have another leg down. I'll be putting deep laddered longs to close my shorts and potentially flip long at 28-32k for $BTC (just in case) but no exact number till I wake up and reassess tomorrow & update on discord. I will also be expanding to some alts soon. There's some stocks I am looking at for long-term buys; $ABNB $TSLA $SHOP & also some speculative ones I want. Should be shopping day soon 🥰 RealisedGains Investing RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 20:09 UTC+08:00 Just a quick update on the short set-ups raised last night for EUR/USD (Forex). Price did come up and reacted well. If you entered using the M1 for confirmation, would already be up 10RR 🤷🏻‍♀️But anyways, also want to say if you are in the trade, best to take some partials now or at least set SL at BE. NFP is happening in 20mins and I don't like to have risk on the table during these events. RealisedGains Investing RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 21:45 UTC+08:00 Still waiting & in my original shorts. We will reach support I think by Monday. This weekend i'll look for closes I think. Give me some time to port over to discord and set things up! RealisedGains Investing 8 May 2022 11:27 UTC+08:00 Closing. . . As I said! By Monday! I think when Markets open tomorrow it'll be very interesting for the Indices as well ✌🏼 Watching $TSLA then Unknown 8 May 2022 11:29 UTC+08:00 Closing as in closing into my regions. . . I am watching very carefully now. I haven't closed yet. Unknown 8 May 2022 11:30 UTC+08:00 Did say this since 48k top and since 42. 7k top and 39. 7k top. All perfect tops I called, just scroll up and check. Stance has been the same. I have also repeated this many times here. Unknown 8 May 2022 11:34 UTC+08:00 Unknown 8 May 2022 11:35 UTC+08:00 Doing some Live Charting and covering some alts today or tomorrow. Still figuring out how to stream but more or less should be okay! RealisedGains Investing 8 May 2022 13:24 UTC+08:00 https://youtu. be/nc0s0ZCSztcSorry for the delay. Still bad at streaming. RealisedGains Investing 9 May 2022 02:05 UTC+08:00 32. 8k - 31. 5k for closes on shorts. Then wait, a break under 30k then we consider flipping long. Like I said since end April from 42. 8k, we are holding this down. However, relief should be coming soon for Crypto 🤙🏻 Analysis all above. Just scroll up the last few weeks! Unknown 9 May 2022 02:07 UTC+08:00 🤷🏻‍ It is what it is. You can't fight the interest rates sell-offs. RealisedGains Investing 9 May 2022 02:07 UTC+08:00 Still in $BTC short from 42. 7k. . . Just holding this down through the hearing. In these market conditions: Still good to hold, I will only close on a very strong support. Looking at low 30s as I said but i'll judge macro conditions when we get there! RealisedGains Investing 9 May 2022 02:09 UTC+08:00 Gave my analysis earlier for $TSLA on the Livestream. I think we're gonna open to a very volatile market on Monday. High 700s, Low 800s. Still in puts from 950. Took many good scalps on this counter the last month, check out above as well. I think the video should be up soon - Youtube streams take awhile to process. RealisedGains Investing 9 May 2022 02:41 UTC+08:00 one more break under 34k i'll put a tight trailing SL perhaps to a few hundreds. if we run to my regions i'll punt a close. if we get stopped out, also fine by me. we're getting really close on HTF support regions. patience. gotta close fast for this tp, don't think we get a long sustained drop. quick tap. Unknown 9 May 2022 02:52 UTC+08:00 Let me try and explain something here:You got bottom liquidation levels at 32. 6k for $BTC and 2404 for $ETH according to hyblockcapital. com After that the delta is quite red. What does this mean?We're getting quite close to a region of support. From what I understand, it means there's no more money to be made from liquidating sizeable longers after that number - so any further selling after that has to be made from spot selling. The question you have to ask yourself is will price action be dictated by the futures or spot market. Generally, the former has control because futures volume is multitudes bigger than spot. However, if there is a flight to safety and spot just gives up and dumps, then who props up the futures price? This normally is in the prerogative of the exchange to hold prices steady - using something called the Insurance Fund. Anyway, i'll try explain this concept sometime. TLDR; we got no one left to kill below this price point so if we drop it has to be spot dumping, but a very possible relief region coming soon. Unknown 9 May 2022 02:53 UTC+08:00 ^ chart i'm analysing from RealisedGains Investing 9 May 2022 10:31 UTC+08:00 We are in green region 33. 5k for $BTC, held my short from 42. 7k, still shifting SL down. Watching closely now 👀 Stay calm. RealisedGains Investing 9 May 2022 10:50 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 9 May 2022 14:11 UTC+08:00 should be closing today. . . RealisedGains Investing 9 May 2022 16:23 UTC+08:00 If we get 32. 8k I'll really consider closing everything. Soon! Anyway, will be shifting into discord groups this week. Taking time to figure it out but this telegram channel will still be active! Got a code to cross-repost those updates so just depends which platform you prefer to look at. RealisedGains Investing 9 May 2022 18:32 UTC+08:00 Look at this chart drawn since 48k predicting 32k. Don't think there was anyone on my timeline charting for a move to 32k at 48k 🤷🏻‍♂️Almost done with the move. Almost perfect. 😅 Think my point D was a little off but I didn't close all the way down anyway. Very soon now! Unknown 9 May 2022 18:32 UTC+08:00 Unknown 9 May 2022 18:33 UTC+08:00 ^Chart was here - 11 April. We were indeed reliant on the hearing & recessionary talks! Unknown 9 May 2022 18:45 UTC+08:00 next wick down i'm closing. that is all i'm saying. ✌🏼 numbers are there. laddered out. 💥 Unknown 9 May 2022 18:47 UTC+08:00 👋🏼 hello 32. 8k Unknown 9 May 2022 18:52 UTC+08:00 i'm largely out here. enough patience. left 10% in shorts which i will ladder into flip longs later. take profit. enjoy the week ✌🏼 Unknown 9 May 2022 19:07 UTC+08:00 $TSLA pre-market at $831? I'm wheezing 😅 Gave my numbers a couple days back in the latest Youtube Video. Check it out! Getting close to it too! RealisedGains Investing RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 19:36 UTC+08:00 this 32. 8k i think will present a good support for a short-term trading range. not bad to go long here with a tight stop if you're a day-trader. Unknown RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 19:40 UTC+08:00 There's a possible small wedge here. But as I mentioned earlier under 30 is where you really want to be punting on longs. If you're already closed like me - Maybe i'll be on the lookout for re-shorts later! RealisedGains Investing RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 21:14 UTC+08:00 For Forex EUR/USD traders, price should be starting its pullback up soon after some liquidations of positions late last week. I'll be interested in looking to open a long in the last zone drawn if there's confirmation shown on the M1 time frame. RealisedGains Investing RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 22:25 UTC+08:00 bloodbath lol; if you've been on my livestreams i've always reiterated i was 90% in cash and in a bearish outlook for my derivatives in shorts and puts. here's why 🤷🏻‍♂️ Unknown RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 22:28 UTC+08:00 might need to go on livestream or trade again later. only still in my $TSLA puts. I did say this particular monday was going to be exciting! 😄 RealisedGains Investing 10 May 2022 01:11 UTC+08:00 Forex EUR/USD update :Price touched my zone and flew right up! Happy to be closing 60% of my trade here at 1:15RR for now & leave the rest for other take profit areas up top. Some of you might ask why am I longing in the fx markets when I did say the general market is bearish right? To avoid any confusion, the directional bias in forex markets' should not be confused together with the others (I. e. Crypto, stocks) Don't marry the sentiments of these markets together! RealisedGains Investing 10 May 2022 04:14 UTC+08:00 As I mentioned earlier $TSLA puts closing under $800. Took my closes at 780. Will look for puts later tomorrow. Enough profits on this already. I have no spot exposure to the markets right now. All derivative contracts closed as well! Unknown 10 May 2022 04:15 UTC+08:00 ^ RealisedGains Investing 10 May 2022 12:06 UTC+08:00 only left my 10% in shorts left, rest are in stables since november last year as you guys know. i think in this market, as long as you are not losing money & you got some ammo to buy the dip later on - you'll be fine. i will deploy the mother load and start scaling in my dry powder in Q3 i presume. for now, i believe for $BTC we are going to break down below 30k and look towards 28k for a close on the final shorts and small flip longs. exact numbers later!very heavy market these few days. . . i'm not going to be a fudder, but macro conditions are really bad, there will be some crypto alts that will go close to zero. I still believe in stocks - things like $TSLA $AAPL are still good long term investments. RealisedGains Investing 10 May 2022 21:36 UTC+08:00 Good close yesterday on shorts and puts for $BTC & $TSLA. Presently just sidelined & waiting for re-shorts ✌🏼 Was a bit tempted to go on longs and calls but I got stopped out yesterday & couldn't monitor this morning! We should see some relief across the board after yesterday's blood bath! RealisedGains Investing 12 May 2022 01:50 UTC+08:00 Live in 5 Minutes regarding the LUNA situation. Not in it and it's a very complicated scenario, but I feel people might want to know. https://youtu. be/sQAW0br2Mto RealisedGains Investing 12 May 2022 11:15 UTC+08:00 when i say crypto alts that will go close to zero - i think things that did a massive run-up last year like ($LUNA, $SOL) with eroding utility or a poor protocol construct are at wayyy biggest risk than things like an large exchange token ($BNB, $FTT). just fyi, i'm still in my tiny bit of shorts. i changed my stance and will not be entering into longs here at 28k. this is not a market i want to be longing or buying yet. i do believe we see lower in Q3 - if we get a full-blown recession - my exact figures are much deeper - always have been. hope everyone is safe! RealisedGains Investing 12 May 2022 14:55 UTC+08:00 getting ready to start bidding and close my final shorts, moving extra USD in the platform to get ready. 🙂 RealisedGains Investing 17 May 2022 21:21 UTC+08:00 For people looking at FX markets, not much high probability setups for day-traders recently but I am looking for EUR/USD pair to continue dropping from the area marked out and continue its bearish orderflow on the bigger picture. RealisedGains Investing 20 May 2022 21:24 UTC+08:00 For Forex day traders, this is the outlook for tonight's session on EUR/USD. Will be looking to get in some shorts at these areas if there's proper confirmation in the form of a CHoCH on the LTF! RealisedGains Investing 2 June 2022 21:20 UTC+08:00 Not too much has changed for the crypto market since my last update. But on the side of forex markets, the EUR/USD pair is looking bearish again after a strong & complex pullback the last couple of weeks & now there's relatively clean areas of interests for shorts. [technical analysis]We can thus expect price to potentially react in the areas marked and if it does, shorts will be in play. RealisedGains Investing 13 June 2022 14:00 UTC+08:00 Plan still the same as I drew in 4th March! We're still looking at 18-23k as a keen point of interest. I did close a fair bit but still in some of my original puts since 48k there. I'll consider closing my put options there! CPI data the last few days have been telling of the US Government's inability to curtail inflationary pressures. I do think bleeding will stop soon! So I am definitely watching this area. Scroll up & read my analysis back then to get a clearer idea 👌🏼 Unknown 13 June 2022 14:02 UTC+08:00 Green area to watch on potential calls 👌🏼 Red area at 48k was my put bids previously in March. Day is finally here ✌🏼 RealisedGains Investing 13 June 2022 16:42 UTC+08:00 Don't be too hasty or try to catch the falling knife too quick. I will probably ladder out put options at high end of green region and flip into stink bids for calls at low end of green region and only add if I see volume come in to confluence my short-term reversal thesis at the green region. Happy Trading ✌🏼 Always remember to risk manage! RealisedGains Investing 13 June 2022 22:53 UTC+08:00 reaching high end of green region soon, gonna start laddering out puts. flip calls/longs are gonna be a bit slower and more spread out given the market conditions. i think we get a very fast liquidity tap down then up soon! RealisedGains Investing 14 June 2022 18:26 UTC+08:00 Should be more or less fully closed on the puts now. If you're looking for entries, I am looking closer to 17/18k region for BTC and corresponding numbers for alts. Might do a livestream when the hour comes to check my data again. As always, DYOR & NFA ✌🏼 RealisedGains Investing 29 June 2022 17:49 UTC+08:00 Over on the forex markets, going into July, the EUR/USD pair seems to be showing signs of reversal to the upside now, after my call for shorts from 1. 077 levels earlier this month which played out well. The bias now will be for one final move down before price potentially reverses. So will look for price to give us some tells & areas to long after the major news play out at the start of July. But if price does not bounce out of key support levels well, look for the pair to continue its HTF narrative down. RealisedGains Investing 18 July 2022 21:50 UTC+08:00 An update over on the forex markets, the EUR/USD currency pair continues to be bearish, with it showing little strength at key levels recently. Thus, on my chart I'm looking for this pair to possibly continue dropping off to targeted areas below this week to collect buy side liquidity lying around 1. 007/8 levels. RealisedGains Investing 19 July 2022 21:51 UTC+08:00 Forex update - EUR/USD PairPrice didn't show any strong confirmation at all to continue its bearish move down from key areas yesterday. Thus no trades were taken. After last night's move up, structure on the bigger picture is unconfirmed bullish. Will wait for a few days to let price play itself out for a clearer picture of the direction it wants to go. In the meantime, the only scalp setup I'm interested in tonight would be something like this. RealisedGains Investing 26 July 2022 21:47 UTC+08:00 Forex update 26/7: EUR/USDAn update on the overall movement EUR/USD. Since last week's call for price to drop down to 1. 011 levels (Marked in blue arrow), price has consolidated for awhile before finally approaching the targeted levels. Did catch a 14RR short following the trend last week but other than that & a short today during London's session (didn't take), there weren't any high probability setups for me to share during the consolidation. . My views on this pair for the next few days are again marked in blue on the right of the chart. Overall bias is still bearish for now. RealisedGains Investing 27 July 2022 21:54 UTC+08:00 Forex Update 27/7: EUR/USDPrice did indeed just reach my final targeted level (posted last week) yesterday midnight. Price is now reacting off of that level/zone and showing signs of a temporary pull back up to the zone marked on top. The scenarios I'm looking at for the next few days are marked on the charts! RealisedGains Investing 28 July 2022 04:26 UTC+08:00 28th July FOMC Update:So we just got our 75 basis points hike in the FOMC Hearing a couple minutes ago. Powell has pivoted to a more dovish stance, hinting to taper back hikes on a meeting by meeting basis in the case if CPI & PCE remain softer in the next few months - which is why we see this push up across the board. My opinion still remains that CPI & PCE won't be controlled with such a "soft" hike and Powell will still have to continue cooling off the market; tldr: bear trend continues till inflation is properly controlled. Not really looking at new entries for puts and re-shorts, still holding my original ones. In other news, $META just missed earnings in this latest tech earnings; this might be one to look out for that I believe still has deeper to go if they keep self-sabotaging the platform with their poor acquisitions and restructuring. RealisedGains Investing 28 July 2022 21:56 UTC+08:00 Forex Update 28/7 EUR/USDMarkup for tonight's session and as pointed out on Tues, we were looking for a temporary pull back up to 1. 022 levels (the zone above) & it played out nicely this afternoon. However, I only trade New York sessions at night so I missed it. Still, will be looking for price to break the highs now with or without a temporary pullback to 1. 012 area. Price action is looking cleaner recently thus I see more high probability trades coming back again! If you guys are interested in trading forex/CFDs too, I can recommend an easy to use platform/broker in XM - comes with extra $50 trading bonus too (Link to XM) RealisedGains Investing 28 July 2022 23:27 UTC+08:00 Clean 5RR long closed in 10minutes, following the plan mentioned in tonight's markup! (Looking for potential longs after a pullback to 1. 012 levels) RealisedGains Investing 2 August 2022 22:18 UTC+08:00 Forex 4H Higher Time Frame Analysis [EUR/USD]Set ups are not the cleanest on my trading time frame (M15) at the moment so here's an analysis of the possible ways I see price moving for this pair instead!Again, we never know where price will go, but by anticipating where price may potentially visit (& with knowledge on why it would move there), it will allow us as traders to react & trade better when price starts to move. RealisedGains Investing 3 August 2022 19:51 UTC+08:00 Live update on FOREX EUR/USD fro tonight’s New York session, continued from yesterday’s markup! RealisedGains Investing 3 August 2022 20:17 UTC+08:00 Price reacted well on the M1 charts in the valid zone I mentioned in my previous post, providing the confirmation we need for the long entry. Let’s see how it goes![9pm update] Taken out at BE. Looks like price may visit the demand zone below. RealisedGains Investing 5 August 2022 21:10 UTC+08:00 Tonight's New York Session markup for Forex pair EUR/USD. It's been a boring week for this pair thus far. . let's see if we can end the week with a winner 🤑 RealisedGains Investing 6 August 2022 00:20 UTC+08:00 Long entry in the zone marked out earlier tonight, took 80% off at 6R and leaving the rest to run. Could possibly hold a little longer to target the high but it's already past my session timing and its fine to just take at least 5R per trade and end the week in the greens 🤑Will breakdown the trade in detail tomorrow in our newsletter/trade recap pdf so those interested do keep a lookout! RealisedGains Investing 8 August 2022 16:09 UTC+08:00 Crypto Update August 2022:$BTC price right now is ranging between 23-24k, I am still in the belief that the recession isn’t over and we have yet to establish strong enough lows for a reversal. That being said, I think there is some upside here to tap liquidity. Considering we have until September 20-21 to the next hearing, barring that there is not extenuating bad news or war crisis the next few months, we can hope to tap 29. 5-31. 1k as a proper resistance before continuation of the downtrend on Crypto. As of now, if I had longs, I would consider closing at 24. 9-25. 1k or place a tight stop there and let it run up to that bigger resistance region. Above that point, if you want to take a safer R:R longer-term play, ladder in shorts slowly up to 29. 5-31. 1k. The reason I am only analysing $BTC is because I think it is still the market leaders and alts will still correspond to $BTC price movement. Will only touch alts at a larger area of interest, not in a low volume area. These are of course larger swing move plays and not meant for a day-trading style. Trade Crypto and FX with me here: https://www. xm. com/gw. php?gid=192102 RealisedGains Investing 8 August 2022 20:39 UTC+08:00 For day trading forex EUR/USD pair, this is the only setup I’ll be interested in tonight if there are no other major changes. RealisedGains Investing 13 August 2022 16:23 UTC+08:00 Crypto Update August 2022 (Part 2)Getting to my first region of 24. 9k-25. 1k, on longs right now you can consider running a tight stop loss after tomorrow to see if this region holds. I'd wait for tomorrow's reaction and the global markets to open. If we successfully break this region, I am of course looking at my next PoC at 29. 5-31. 1k where I will be flipping into shorts once again with some size. A lot of this move is fuelled by the lower than expected inflationary pressures that the Feds have "successfully" managed to curtail & contain. Wrote about this in the newsletter in the main channel! (Go check it out). 🙂 RealisedGains Investing 15 August 2022 21:29 UTC+08:00 For forex pair EUR/USD, price looks like it is finally coming back down into favourable demand zones after a huge spike up due to news in the US CPI. Thus, as the internal structure is still bullish, for now I would look to get in some quick buys from the areas marked out in tonight's chart markup. RealisedGains Investing 16 August 2022 23:37 UTC+08:00 Update on EUR/USD, continued from yesterday's trade plan. Price did react well from my demand zone but until I see the target high gets broken, the trend is still only unconfirmed bullish atm. Still, buys with LTF entry confirmation are valid on the two new zones marked out. RealisedGains Investing 18 August 2022 20:58 UTC+08:00 Been a boring past 2 days on EUR/USD where price is just trading sideways. But these are the points of interest i'll be looking for a good reaction off of & then scale in some trades from there. Point to note though, no matter what kind of market you trade in, its best to wait for a breakout on either side before you get in. Always wait for the big banks to show their hands first. RealisedGains Investing 19 August 2022 19:15 UTC+08:00 Forex EUR/USD Pre-NY markupPrice just blew right past my zones yesterday with heavy bearish momentumn. . but its fine - no trades were taken as i did not see my confirmation pattern play out live. Shorts would be high probability now though, as all structures are bearish. RealisedGains Investing 22 August 2022 13:39 UTC+08:00 22 August Crypto Update:Took some shorts at my first resistance at 24. 9-25. 1k for $BTC which was exactly how I called it if you look at the time stamp. Not fully loaded in as I was entertaining the smaller possibility of a move to 29. 5k. But still in a good position here, just waiting it out. On the chart our ascending wedge just broke down. However, with no fuel to further push it down. I think we slow down here for awhile unless we get more FUD. Unknown 22 August 2022 13:39 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 23 August 2022 21:17 UTC+08:00 Shorts are looking like the plan right now!Price just put in a new low yesterday on our EUR/USD pair on the daily charts, making the pair bearish across all my timeframes. So here's a markup of how things could potentially go in the next few days/weeks. Also added in some key insights on how the market tends to move in the bigger picture. RealisedGains Investing 24 August 2022 22:13 UTC+08:00 Update on the outlook of Forex pair EUR/USD after price dumped from one of our supply zones marked out yesterday at around the 1. 00 level. RealisedGains Investing 24 August 2022 23:14 UTC+08:00 Clean & quick 13. 8RR trade taken following tonight's markup (After price wicked in the final zone at the bottom). Will try to add more detail on the breakdown of the trade in our weekly market recap pdf this weekend! RealisedGains Investing 29 August 2022 22:28 UTC+08:00 29th August Crypto Update:Nothing much to update. i’m still in these shorts. As I said earlier on twitter, contingent on the inflation data and subsequent interest rate hike, I think we find a bottom in Crypto in the next year. I’ll be short-biased till then. Looking at one last big drop till I look for longs again. I'm still scalping a small account but my larger portfolio is hedged in USD as well as put options. Another thing that i'll be looking into soon is gold. Like it or not, in a recessionary climate and with the US Public Debt, i'll still allocate some portion of my portfolio into Gold. Will do a video breaking down my portfolio arrangement soon. RealisedGains Investing 1 September 2022 21:11 UTC+08:00 EUR/USD Analysis The momentumn going up looks weak for EUR/USD right now seeing how price keeps getting rejected with long wicks whenever it tries to climb above 1. 00. Will be looking for short setups if I’m trading this right now unless price breaks out above 1. 01 level & stay above it. Take profit levels will be at our target low around 0. 99. RealisedGains Investing 1 September 2022 22:01 UTC+08:00 Simple trade taken on EUR/USD using the simplest trade entry model following our main bearish trend. Let's see what price does at 10pm when PMI news drop. . Unknown 1 September 2022 22:12 UTC+08:00 [followup on previous trade post]Oh well these things happen. . . but I'm totally okay with it as risk management (sticking to our breakevens/stop losses and taking profit when you should take it) is always a top priority when it comes to being a consistent trader. At the end of the day, the goal is to not lose money & not being stressed out trying to trade. RealisedGains Investing 2 September 2022 22:26 UTC+08:00 Forex EUR/USD updateSo an update, yesterday's trade was fully closed out at a total of +8. 6% (20% runner closed out at 23RR). For now, the main target is still to break the low of 0. 99 but the internal structure is kind of just trading sideways if we zoom out to see thus there isn't really any strong directional bias at the moment. So for today, would only entertain a quick short if my pattern drawn out, plays out. Trade Forex at XM with $50 bonus credit RealisedGains Investing 5 September 2022 21:55 UTC+08:00 Tracing back to my outlook on the EUR/USD pair at the start of September, price moved exactly how I drew it out and dropped to our target level (0. 99) earlier today. But do click in to the image to learn a little more on why we should stay out of trading this pair for now. Unknown 5 September 2022 22:05 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 7 September 2022 17:39 UTC+08:00 7 September Crypto UpdateI'm still on these 24. 2k $BTC shorts! I'm trying to put out more opinions for alt coins and other stock counters out there but still quite limited with my time. I've always been saying i'll reassess in Q3 2022. Still looking at one more set of fresh lows before I think we potentially get a proper reversal to open up 2023. Sorry if this new trading style is a little slow, but we still have a 100% win rate on Crypto the last year with this method! Always remember that slow compounding is far superior and mentally sustainable as opposed to fast wins in the long run! RealisedGains Investing 8 September 2022 21:59 UTC+08:00 Something new on the channel today as we take a look at what Gold (XUA/USD) is up to currently. I'm sure some of you already know, Commodities such as gold are good to have in your portfolios during recessions. And now, as Gold looks to test a historical key support level at 1680 + recession an increasing concern in major markets like Europe, it'll be a good time to take a look and consider longing this safe-haven asset at good prices. Read more on Gold & the Dollar's relationship with one another : LinkTrade Gold and other commodities CFDs: XM. com RealisedGains Investing 13 September 2022 23:32 UTC+08:00 Was just doing some chart markups 30minutes before my trade window starts at 9pm but this huge set-up for a short I was looking at played out first. . . So yup didn't take the trade but here's a simple breakdown of it for those that are interested to start learning how we trade Forex (Could be used on Crypto as well)4H Time Frame (Overview) : 4H ChartM15 Time Frame (Refine Zones): M15 Chart M1 Time Frame (Trade Execution): M1 Chart Trade with me: XM. com Unknown 13 September 2022 23:34 UTC+08:00 As for everyone who voted yes on last week's poll on the Forex Trading Guide, I'm currently working on a few of them already. Trying to make it as simple as possible now for you guys so that you can really understand & grasp the concept. So do keep a lookout for that! RealisedGains Investing 19 September 2022 22:49 UTC+08:00 Gold (XUA/USD) just broke the historical support level of 1680 late last week as predicted two weeks back. Will be interesting to see how things unfold on the chart after the news release on Fed's September interest rate hikes on Sep 21. The way the charts are lining up , I am inclined to think that Fed's may soon opt for 1/2 100 bps rate hike to tackle inflation more aggressively, and then we should see safe-haven assets like Gold start to climb back up after huge dumps during the rate hikes. Trade Gold CFDs RealisedGains Investing 20 September 2022 19:39 UTC+08:00 Alot of huge news happening today & tomorrow so those that are trading do be cautious! (Always use a stop loss)But for EUR/USD which has been ranging last few days, it really seems like EUR just doesn’t have any strength to push higher at the moment (in both fundamental & technical analysis). So I’ll be looking to get in shorts if i do get confirmation when price enters my zone around 1. 003 ( Or price could just melt from here 🤷)Trade EUR/USD here RealisedGains Investing 21 September 2022 21:09 UTC+08:00 Forex EUR/USD update: This afternoon, price broke the target low with a strong impulsive move to the downside, just like how we mapped it out yesterday night!Price is hovering around a critical support area now so won't be trading until we get a strong move away from here, especially with FOMC reports coming in at 2am tonight. My guess is that we'll turn bullish from here on for awhile though but its ok I'll just wait for more confirmation on where price wants to go before taking any new trades. RealisedGains Investing 27 September 2022 19:03 UTC+08:00 For EUR/USD, the obvious trend is down now after last week’s FOMC but what we can look for right now is a complex pullback up into the 1. 00 parity level (Also a nice confluence is the 62/70 fibs level at 1. 00). From there, we’ll see if price gives us a favourable reaction to continue our shorts. Trade EUR/USD here RealisedGains Investing 30 September 2022 19:54 UTC+08:00 Took awhile but finally some clearer price action for our forex trading pair EUR/USD after it reacted from the zones drawn on Tuesday. So here's the outlook for tonight! Big news releases at 8:30pm too so do be careful if trading at that time. Trade Forex and other CFDs here RealisedGains Investing 1 October 2022 00:44 UTC+08:00 According to our plan to short from the supply zones drawn in our outlook today, a high probability short set-up was presented,taken and closed in 12minutes today. With this day trading strategy, we don't always have to be trading or looking at the charts. We wait patiently for price to give us a tell on which overall direction it wants to go first. Then draw our zones where we look for price to react from. Get confirmation on lower time frames using choch pattern. Then we enter trades and get out in a matter of minutes 👌Trade EUR/USD with XM RealisedGains Investing 3 October 2022 21:21 UTC+08:00 Continuation from last Friday's EUR/USD short set-up, we now see price going into our next available supply zone to short from. Will take the trade if confirmation comes in for me on the lower time frames (1minute)Trade EUR/USD here with $50 bonus equity RealisedGains Investing 4 October 2022 21:43 UTC+08:00 Updated outlook on EUR/USD. Price wasn't able to get a strong enough reaction yesterday to continue down from my zones. . but its ok we adjust and move on. Still, there were 2 valid quick scalps to get into from my zones if we traded this afternoon. . but the lesson/point that I want to share here is that we do not have to catch the full 100RR moves that we so often see on social media to be profitable in trading (especially day trading). In fact, a lot of profitable traders out there only try to catch a 1 to 5 RR trades & close their positions no matter how much further the trade could go in their favour. Find a consistent strategy that works for you, is profitable in the long run & stick to it! (Or you can just wait for our free trading PDF that's launching soon 🤫) RealisedGains Investing 5 October 2022 22:56 UTC+08:00 EUR/USD outlook update Trade Forex with XM here Unknown 5 October 2022 23:06 UTC+08:00 Thought it would be good to just share more on what this CHoCH pattern is that we use for our trades. (Just a little sneak peek of what's to come in our basic trading pdf guide as well!) RealisedGains Investing 10 October 2022 21:18 UTC+08:00 EUR/USD outlook for start of this week!Trade Forex with XM RealisedGains Investing 18 October 2022 23:01 UTC+08:00 *Repost for clearer chart image*[EUR/USD Market outlook]Although last week quite eventful with the US CPI news, it was still a week filled with messy price action if we look at the big picture, as our forex pair EUR/USD was stuck in a range the entire week. But price is finally moving again & back into the zones we wanted to look for shorts from in our previous outlook. Let's see if we finally get a favourable reaction this week. Trade Forex here: XM More from XM: Trade Ideas RealisedGains Investing 21 October 2022 19:33 UTC+08:00 [Update on EUR/USD Day Trading outlook]Price moved exactly the way we thought it would after a change of character to bearish when it touched our zone on Tuesday. Take a look at the chart for more info on outlook moving forward!Trade Forex here: XM More from XM: Trade Ideas RealisedGains Investing 24 October 2022 22:06 UTC+08:00 On EUR/USD, price is currently looking to break above the parity level at 1. 00 as internal structures are bullish but overall the currency pair is still bearish with 1. 00 as the protected high (or resistance)Will be interesting to see if EUR will get rejected here again, the next few days/weeks will be critical. Trade Forex here: XM More from XM: Trade Ideas RealisedGains Investing 28 October 2022 21:42 UTC+08:00 EUR/USD was finally able to show some signs of strength & close above parity level of 1. 00. Still, it will need to close above 1. 02 to really turn to bullish sentiments. Till then, we are still macro bearish but looking at our daily outlook, longs are also valid too due to a strong bullish internal structure. Trade Forex here: XM More from XM: Trade Ideas RealisedGains Investing 1 November 2022 20:10 UTC+08:00 EUR/USD updated outlookPrice has now CHoCH to bullish from our zones marked out last Friday. Will look for longs to take out previous highs now but do watch the 0. 995 level closely as a rejection from there might cause prices to go further down, creating new lows. Trade Forex here: XM More from XM: Trade Ideas RealisedGains Investing 7 November 2022 21:32 UTC+08:00 EUR/USDThe long setup wasn't there for us last week as it indeed rejected heavily from 0. 995 area & now that there's a buildup of liquidity below, it seems that price is just waiting to dump heavily in the grand scheme of things. (Unless we close above 1. 02) Still, Price is seeing bullish order flow again so I'll be looking to get into quick longs to 1. 01 level for now. RealisedGains Investing 9 November 2022 00:26 UTC+08:00 2 completely degenerate charts you can day trade if you want to make a quick buck. FTT & USDT/USD stablecoin pairings. What you would need for this. At this point, no TA needed. no FA needed. Just wait for the significant parties to tweet, or write a script if you have to, and trade based of that. Highly liquid, highly volatile, highly profitable, and also highly risky. One of the largest moves i've seen on a intrahour trade. Unknown 9 November 2022 00:26 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 9 November 2022 23:43 UTC+08:00 9th November Crypto/Stocks Update:This is more of a post-mortem update. I am sure some of you guys might be affected by the markets and know someone who got hit as well. I have taken a small loss, albeit still sizeable as well. We move on. I do think there is still downside to this market on both stocks and crypto. Notable counters would be looking at the support at $130-150 for $TSLA, a quick wick under $10,000 for $BTC and under $800 for $ETH have all been in consideration for me. I posted these thoughts on Twitter months ago if you want to go take a look. Best to be careful with your funds on CEXs for now, as the contagion and repercussions of the recent events unfold. A lot of this has to do with the 3AC implosion, causing Alameda, Genesis, Jump all to face insolvency and requiring bailouts causing the liquidity crisis in Crypto. For stocks, most earnings are dismal, we did see a run-up as expected into midterms. We only have a plausible Santa Claus rally coming but be cautious training into such headwinds. More details in my next video! RealisedGains Investing 10 November 2022 21:56 UTC+08:00 A perfect long setup from our zone here in EUR/USD during the CPI release but trade wasn't taken as I typically avoid trading minutes before/after major news. . . Heading into Nov & Dec, Trading volumes/Price Action will typically be quite bad so high probability setups will be hard to come by but oh wells the goal is just not to give back all the pips we gained earlier in the year!Will post a simple breakdown in a bit of the setup tonight on the M1, using the CHoCH pattern. Unknown 10 November 2022 22:10 UTC+08:00 Trade breakdown on the M1 using CHoCH pattern for entry confirmation. Take a look! RealisedGains Investing 15 November 2022 20:19 UTC+08:00 EUR/USD outlook for the week/in the medium term. With expectations that inflation has peaked, the Euro was able to finally break its previous macro high (& critical parity level) against the USD. Still, loads of liquidity lies below 1. 00 & I wouldn't be surprised if price does a final trace back all the way down to 1. 00 or 0. 96 level again before continuing its supposed bull trend. Any buys right now would have to still involve conservative take profit levels. RealisedGains Investing 18 November 2022 09:33 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 18 November 2022 09:50 UTC+08:00 Roll Call, who's still here! Will be resuming trading for US Stock Options, Forex and some Crypto, however I won't be doing futures anymore as I don't see a CEX platform viable enough for me to trust my funds for Crypto in the time being till the dust settles. For US Stock Options, https://www. webull. com. sg/i/sgseowieFor Forex & Crypto CFDs, i'm still using XM:https://www. xm. com/gw. php?gid=192094Fund an account with my referral code and get a $150 bonus on Webull and $50 bonus for XM. Unknown 18 November 2022 09:50 UTC+08:00 18th November Market Update:Some key price supports I am looking at; At the moment, we should expect a Santa Claus Rally or some stability in the markets this next month; I still think we resume the bearish downtrend in Q1 2023, I will ladder in long-term DTE bearish options strategy on $SPY, we're right at the resistance right now 4100 to 4200 is key (Video coming soon on this I promise). If you want to take a ride up, this santa claus rally, $ABNB is a possible opportunity right now at under $100. I see travel resuming, the property market cooling and the rental market to still be fluid and liquid. In terms of cashflow, I think they will still be a good investment as we make our way in 2023. Even if the general market goes up, I think $TSLA might still go down in the short-term considering the shaky news there, along with a weakening TA indicators, either case, I think 115-145 presents a very good buying opportunity there if we get there. I'll ladder in on the day and update. For Crypto, I am still expecting a 8-10k $BTC target eventually but completely removing my exposure on CEXs for the time being. I am shorting on XM (Link in Pinned Message) but a small amount only. My rationale is that opening derivatives on a non-crypto based company removes the risk of a bankrun or an exchange not honouring if Crypto does face insolvency or a liquidity crunch. This is my current take but it will evolve as we get to our next FOMC Hearing! RealisedGains Investing 19 November 2022 17:30 UTC+08:00 20th November Market Update:So PPI data has just been released November 16, indicating a slower than expected producer price increase. We are starting to see inflation being controlled and rate hikes slowing down. All this in a positive earnings environment. We have also just seen a run-up to 4000+ on the SPY. Do we still have leg-room for more?I think yes. We remain in a relatively stable period this Q4 as we approach a prospective Santa Claus Rally. Are we still in a recessionary environment?Also yes, but it's largely been priced in and I think this next year is for buying. Perhaps not the S&P directly as we might revisit lows but I don't believe we go much deeper (At most 3300 range). Even them, there are several distressed assets already at multi technical lows worth considering soon; $TSLA $BTC $ABNB $GOOGL, yes even $META. There's not much more lower these can go and I think Q1 2023 is time to start laddering in. In the meantime, I will still taking shorter term trades. Sharing more on this here (https://www. youtube. com/watch?v=FoohBPM4TM8&t) RealisedGains Investing 23 November 2022 11:28 UTC+08:00 23 November 2022 Market Update:Looking at 4100 to 4200 on the $SPY; this should lead the market direction depending on the reaction there. RealisedGains Investing 1 December 2022 23:49 UTC+08:00 1 December 2022 Market Update: We finally got our 4100 on $SPY. Here is where you want to reduce exposure on calls and most stocks and start flipping bias. Just be cautious there might be a little more chop and range as we get to Christmas but I do believe we go below here in the next year. RealisedGains Investing 8 December 2022 05:35 UTC+08:00 8th December 2022Current markets are indeed boring I must admit, but this place of ranging is quite a good place to practise some smaller day trading positions. Current PA for $SPY looks like we rejected off the 4100 as I mentioned quite nicely. Have already flipped into some puts. For Crypto, we look to be developing a wedge on $BTC. You can play the resistance at 16800-16900 and the support at 16100-16300 for a few scalps I think the next couple of days. Also selling CFDs on SOL/USD. I have switched to XM on MT5 currently for my day trading account using CFDs (Essentially the same thing as Futures but i'll do a video on this soon). Mainly for Stock, Forex & Crypto, i'm using XM:https://www. xm. com/gw. php?gid=192094 RealisedGains Investing 11 December 2022 18:19 UTC+08:00 Price has been pretty choppy on several markets & yea well I did say markets do tend to move sideways alot during Nov/Dec with all the things like Crypto Winter happening but here's hoping there's some breakthrough happening next week as investors await the release of CPI numbers this Tuesday & FOMC a day later. But here's an outlook on EUR/USD with key levels to note! RealisedGains Investing 12 December 2022 04:20 UTC+08:00 12th December 2022 Update:Current Positions are a $BTC short and $TSLA long. I almost always only trade $BTC for Crypto. Do note, this is my speculative account which I only started with 1000 USD in December after the FTX crash. Aiming to get this to 10000 USD in a month or so. No fixed timeline. Follow at your own risk. This account is for my degeneracy. I am also doing bear call spreads and perhaps credit spreads with my larger main account with options. I’ll share on that later. Current Price targets for $BTC:Short-Term: 15. 9k-16. 3k SupportLong-Term: 8-12k SupportCurrent Price targets for $TSLA:Hoping to form a swing failure bottom and push for the $210 area. Tight trailing SL here. This could change with CPI Data as well as the FOMC hearing soon. RealisedGains Investing 12 December 2022 18:31 UTC+08:00 Starting Balance 10/12: 1000 USDCurrent Balance 12/12: 2000~ USDClosed off yesterday's BTC Short from 17. 2k for a nice profit ($528 USD, 1st Image). Currently on a long from 16. 8k (2nd Image) as I expect a dead cat bounce once US Markets open just based on the SPY E-Minis having some upwards pressure. Actually closed open and closed these trades closer to the the top and bottom than it looks. Do note that the buy/sell spread is about 0. 001%. Wasn't a perfect exit as I am still getting used to the spreads on CFDs. This might not sound great at first but with CFDs, I don't mind the wider spread cause there are zero commission and fees and markets are less wickish as compared to futures. Also I don't trust CEXs right now. I'll do an exchange/derivative comparison overview for my next video. Unknown 12 December 2022 18:31 UTC+08:00 Unknown 12 December 2022 18:33 UTC+08:00 Short-term target for $BTC still think we need to tap and watch the 15. 9k-16. 3k Support. If that breaks, we go into goblin town. However, I don't expect the long term support at 8-12k to be reached so soon. Based on my extension models, I think more likely to be in Feb-June 2023. As of now, these are just good setups to swing trade. RealisedGains Investing 13 December 2022 21:33 UTC+08:00 CPI is out! (CPI MoM: 0. 1%, Est. 0. 3%) RealisedGains Investing 15 December 2022 03:04 UTC+08:00 FOMC is out! (Fed Median Forecast Shows Rates at 5. 1% in 2023, 4. 1% in 2024: BBG; Higher terminal rate, that’s bearish) RealisedGains Investing 15 December 2022 03:26 UTC+08:00 Basically, they are predicting a higher terminal rate, yet also projecting GDP Growth. Optimistic but we will continue with the I/R Hikes. Will do a write-up later. Busy trading. RealisedGains Investing 17 December 2022 07:50 UTC+08:00 7 December Crypto Update:Decent Area for some SMALL scalp longs (Put an SL for this) into flip laddered shorts. Still using my small account for CFDs Crypto Trades on XM. I'd advise against high leverage, we have lower volume on the weekend but any rips are still for shorting. 16. 7-16. 8 honestly will not be a bad short entry come the new year. Sign up here if you want to trade:https://www. xm. com/gw. php?gid=196684 RealisedGains Investing 22 December 2022 21:40 UTC+08:00 $SPY Data Out - GDP : 3. 2% q/q VS 2. 9% Expected - Unemployment : 216k VS 221k Expected RealisedGains Investing 28 December 2022 20:33 UTC+08:00 Pardon for the lack of updates recently here! But volumes are just so low in Dec that there's just not much high probability & high RR (risk-to-reward) trade setups, especially if you trade Futures. But here's an outlook on EUR/USD where it looks like it may give a final tap at critical levels of 1. 07 before going down for a pullback in this macro bullish leg. But at the end of the day, what we are all trading now really just depends on inflation and wage prints so take this opportunity when market is quiet to read up on these things! RealisedGains Investing 3 January 2023 21:53 UTC+08:00 Today's 10RR short. Exactly as what was shared here 6 days ago 🤫🤫 Now that year end holidays are behind us now, we should start to see volume pick up & more high probability trade setups again! (for day trading) Trade Forex with me here: XM RealisedGains Investing 5 January 2023 08:40 UTC+08:00 [EUR/USD outlook]Some continuation short set-ups for day-trading that I'm thinking may be possible today. But will have to get some strong confirmation in our zones (ChoCh/volume/liquidation on the M1)Trade FX with me at XM RealisedGains Investing 6 January 2023 19:05 UTC+08:00 Today is a huge day for news once again, expecting volatility today. I think the drawdown will still be a bit muted however for the time being until earnings reports come out at the later-end of January. As I mentioned in my last Youtube video, I was expecting $SI to fall further. Switching to some downside exposure on automobile counters now. $KMX $AN $PAG $LAD $ABG $CPI $SAH $CRMT all good to look into. RealisedGains Investing 6 January 2023 22:09 UTC+08:00 (UnN Data) The US added 223k jobs in December vs. +203k expectations according to today's #NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls) report. The #unemployment rate shrunk to 3. 5% vs. +3. 7% expectations. Average hourly earnings shrunk as well to +4. 6% YoY vs. +5. 0% expectations. Market already moving up off pre-market with this news. RealisedGains Investing 11 January 2023 22:15 UTC+08:00 Looks like the traders are just waiting for the CPI news release tomorrow at 9:30 SGT to confirm if the US inflation is indeed in a retreat, after receiving little policy clues from the Fed & several other Fed officials claiming the future moves will be data-dependent. So we'll just have to wait & see what happens tomorrow & update you guys again! But here's a short update on the 12RR EUR/USD short set-up last week & my outlook for tomorrow. Trade EUR/USD & other Forex at XM RealisedGains Investing 12 January 2023 22:26 UTC+08:00 JUST IN TODAY: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Y/Y: 6. 5% , accurate to analysts' expectations. As a result, we are seeing some bullish momentum in the markets right now but negligible as this CPI print may have already been priced in with all the bullish price action we have been seeing recently. (The only scenario the market was going down is if CPI came in higher than expected). Still, the markets have just been going up too heavily without any healthy pullbacks so i'm expecting the environment to turn bearish for awhile soon. Might be a good time to start hunting for short set-ups. RealisedGains Investing 16 January 2023 22:35 UTC+08:00 Forex EUR/USD outlookI think everyone probably knows by now that Market is bullish. But as I've mentioned in the previous weeks, the bulls currently seems to be getting weaker & weaker, especially in EUR/USD. & there's just no nice levels to long from at the moment imo. So this might be a week where I start getting into counter-trend shorts (If there's strong confirmation) & potentially holding these positions for awhile, possibly catching the entire down move of a macro pullback, which has been long overdue. (But ofc, always take partial profits on the way down to secure some bread!)Trade Forex with me here: XM RealisedGains Investing 27 January 2023 22:52 UTC+08:00 For EUR/USD, bulls are starting to show signs of exhaustion here, even with the favourable PCE news today. How do we tell? Traders can make use of candlestick patterns on the chart. For eg if we see multiple wicks beyond a certain point, it is an early sign of a possible reversal as the market isn't strong enough to push price impulsively to close beyond a certain level. (Of course, will still need other confluences to strengthen your bias)But anyways an update, in our selected zone on Jan 16th, 3 clean short setups were available (but weren't taken due to CNY events. . ) Still macro bullish though, so taking partial profits/trailing SL is recommended for any counter trend shorts now. Trade Forex with me here: XM RealisedGains Investing 31 January 2023 21:22 UTC+08:00 For Forex EUR/USD, Price still trading in a channel but with the following major events happening 1st Feb, we should be able to see if we can continue making macro higher highs or get that overdue pullback from our 1. 09 levels soon. But here's my outlook moving forward!- EU unemployment rate- US Manufacturing PMI - Fed Interest Rate DecisionTrade Forex with me here: XM RealisedGains Investing 2 February 2023 04:21 UTC+08:00 25 Basis Points FOMC & a huge rally to end of the day! Think we might continue this move to the end of the week but we will probably tease the golden cross before a short breakdown on the shorter-term. Crypto by normal volatility standards actually increased much less than the other assets. Still mid-term bullish on Gold (1963-1966) and Bitcoin (28-29k target) RealisedGains Investing 2 February 2023 22:37 UTC+08:00 With all the momentum going up, will be switching my bias back to longs for EUR/USD & looking for price to revisit 1. 08-1. 09 areas to enter long to take out the target high. Some quick short setups were still available yesterday but would have got stopped out early if quick partials weren't taken (I got stopped out at BE too). That's why its tricky trading counter-trend for many & only recommend it if one has strict discipline in managing their stop losses!Trade Forex with me here: XM RealisedGains Investing 8 February 2023 22:05 UTC+08:00 The Price action has just been so choppy and difficult to trade with confirmation recently so will be starting to take partial profits sooner & set Breakeven stops more aggressively in this choppy environments. Hope everyone is still doing ok though! If not, just remember to always stay patient. Never chase a trade. but anyways here's the outlook for day trading of FX EUR/USD. Trade Forex with me here: XM RealisedGains Investing 11 February 2023 00:03 UTC+08:00 Quick 5R trade taken after we receive a valid choch confirmation when price entered our preferred zones drawn on Wed. (With a brief trade breakdown)Took full profit early as its the weekends & don't really want the stress over the weekends, especially if I am day trading + with a tight stop. (If not trade would have took me out at breakeven as im typing right now haha lucky for me. . ) Trade Forex with me here: XM Unknown 11 February 2023 00:05 UTC+08:00 Outside of day trading though, still looking at BTC, SPY, XAU to dump further (Currently in short positions for all 3). Will see what next week's Valentines CPI provide us with, given how mixed the economic reports have been so far in 2023 👀 RealisedGains Investing 14 February 2023 20:48 UTC+08:00 Jan CPI out in less than an hour!My guess is that we get an upside surprise (above expectations) to prompt an equities sell-off but we’ll see 🤷🏻‍♂️ Historically, Jan CPI has came in hotter in recent years. RealisedGains Investing 14 February 2023 21:46 UTC+08:00 CPI comes in hotter than expected (+6. 4% YoY, forecast was +6. 2% YoY)Indecision in the markets right now though (& probably alot of liquidated positions 🥲)https://twitter. com/tradingview/status/1625491159966679042?s=52&t=rbPYLYuymXxbseNxI6iEQQ RealisedGains Investing 23 February 2023 21:32 UTC+08:00 EUR/USD showing a strong bearish chain. Will look for a quick short from the latest supply zones should we get choch confirmation on the lower time frames / a sweep of liquidity then choch. I think we eventually hit 1. 05 but the move down may not be so soon as we might also see a temporary relief up from this 0. 79 level first. Either ways, will trade with the trend & just manage the position tightly for now. Trade Forex with me here: XM RealisedGains Investing 23 February 2023 23:59 UTC+08:00 2 textbook short set-ups presented tonight in our zones ✌🏻Missed the first entry as I normally enter at 0. 5 level now but luckily for me got another opportunity to enter. Quick 80% of position off the table at 7. 8RR. Will observe the reaction for abit more & see if I want to just set the SL @ BE & ride it till 1. 05. Trade Forex with me here: XM RealisedGains Investing 24 February 2023 23:23 UTC+08:00 US JAN. CORE PCE PRICE INDEX RISES 4. 7% Y/Y; EST. 4. 3%A lot to digest from but i'll try to break it down. Basically what this means is that we have to either keep rates sustained at 25 bps for longer (while implies prolonged pain & a slower drawdown). If we push up to 50 bps, this would be disastrous - when the rhetoric has now been to try keep at 25 bps and aim for a soft landing. My best bet is that it keeps the 25 bps hike but Powell suggests to raise the 2% inflation target & we just have to begin accepting higher prices and the destruction of our savings. RealisedGains Investing 2 March 2023 22:18 UTC+08:00 For Forex,Price seems to be moving cleanly up now for EUR/USD, will be interested in quick scalps from these zones if it happens in my day trading windows. (9pm-12am) Just need the choch confirmations on lower time frames & off we go! But will not be trading if it happens during PMI news tmrw though. Trade Forex with me here: XM Unknown 2 March 2023 22:21 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 2 March 2023 23:49 UTC+08:00 Currently in this simple long set-up after the choch with quick profits taken. 20% of my position left on the table (SL shifted to breakeven), might just leave it running to see if PMI tmr can push it all the way to our target high! (Or 1. 062 is an ok level too to start taking final TP)But price action don't look the best atm - feels like may go lower to mitigate the re-entry zones. This is why it's so impt to know your in-trade management & know how to manage your positions when you're in one. Never just blindly follow a signal. . Trade Forex with me here: XM RealisedGains Investing 6 March 2023 22:29 UTC+08:00 Nothing too clean to look at for Forex atm so maybe just some quick thoughts on Crypto. Both BTC & ETH are struggling to close bullish above previous highs on the higher time frame charts & that tends to signify to me that bulls are either out of strength and we are ready to go down for awhile OR we are due for one final spike up to liquidate retail investors before a big dump. Atm 21. 2k to 20. 9k is critical for BTC to hold & ETH's is at 1. 5k. Any lower, we can expect further dumps (Looking at 18. 2k & 1350 respectively. ) When will it happen? Who knows (but FOMC on march 21-22 does look interesting 🤫 Unless Jobs & wages report in the next few days comes in really hot/cool)Trade Crypto CFDs: XM RealisedGains Investing 7 March 2023 22:36 UTC+08:00 FOREX EUR/USD Outlook for perhaps the next few days. May see some volatility at later at 11pm SGT too with Fed Chair Powell Testimony (where many are predicting more signaling of extended rate hikes - so a bearish reversal may likely be in play too so manage well)Trade Forex @ XM RealisedGains Investing 7 March 2023 23:21 UTC+08:00 And we're back to more hawkish times again. . Futures are now predicting a 53% chance of a 50bps rate hike in the March FOMC + 35% chance of a terminal rate above 6%. For context, 1% was the odds for a 50bps rate hike & peak terminal rates were only at 5. 25%. RealisedGains Investing 23 March 2023 20:33 UTC+08:00 Unemployment ClaimsACTUAL = 191KFORECAST = 198KPREVIOUS = 192KPositive for USD, Negative for Gold. After yesterday's 25 BPS, today should be choppish and muted! Unknown 23 March 2023 20:35 UTC+08:00 Probably bearish for equities and dollar should inverse. Also if unemployment is lower than expected, means more work needs to be done on hikes. However, all these numbers are quite doctored formula-wise so I wouldn't take too much note of it. RealisedGains Investing 29 March 2023 21:17 UTC+08:00 Markets have been too wild to find proper setups for day trades recently, or is that just me? & a lot of equities are just in indecision, hanging around the touchpoints of trendlines and different patterns right now. But EUR/USD seems to be alright to get back to day trading again so heres some outlook. Still abit choppy, but bulls are temporarily in good control. Will be waiting for entry opportunities for some quick trades from these zones tonight. Trade Forex with me here: XM RealisedGains Investing 10 April 2023 21:49 UTC+08:00 EUR/USD outlook - continuation from 29 March outlookPrice seems to be playing out like how we anticipated two weeks ago & finally pulling back into areas that look valid for longs up to possibly test 1. 10 levels. Trade Forex with me here: XM RealisedGains Investing 14 April 2023 18:57 UTC+08:00 Mixed bag of Earnings today; Huge amount of earnings should make for some volatility today. $JPM Higher following earnings JPMORGAN Q1 2023 EARNINGS EPS $4. 10 VS EST $3. 38 ADJ. REV. $39. 34B, EST. $36. 83As usual, Cramer times it well with the inverse - Boeing having production issues. Think the general US indices should retrace soon! I like Gold & Crypto still! RealisedGains Investing 14 April 2023 20:30 UTC+08:00 🇺🇸❗️*US RETAIL SALES DECREASED 1. 0% IN MARCH; EST. -0. 5%Quite a bit lower than expected! RealisedGains Investing 15 April 2023 00:49 UTC+08:00 Currently in a short on $ES $SPY from 413. 6, $VIX has also been pressured heavily down, so I expect a short-term re-tracement to at least 408-409. Looking at the real support regions of 402. 15-401. 75 as well as 399-395. There's gaps there to be filled! Unknown 15 April 2023 00:58 UTC+08:00 Current Positions; bought some $DB at 9. 80, still holdingbeen selling calls on $SPY from 413, 417, 418. So I was ready to be assigned, this turned into a net short. also have bear spreads on $QQQ, $SPY and a bull put spread on $GLDBasically as I mentioned before, bullish on Gold/Bitcoin, neutral on equities short-term but I see a stagflation scenario coming, where dollar and equities both weaken long-term, $SPY to test October 22' lows eventually. This is my current take on the market! RealisedGains Investing 19 April 2023 21:30 UTC+08:00 Still in these positions, markets are open with pre-market/futures down today. We were very high on the Greed Index and VIX is at levels it should bounce. Playing it safer by employing bearish spreads instead of too many short-term direct puts ✌🏼Crypto generally correlates heavy to $SPY but I think no real fear of a massive sell-off at the moment. Trading what the market gives 👍🏼 RealisedGains Investing 21 April 2023 02:47 UTC+08:00 Also still holding these shorts on $TSLA, opened up 2000 shares short at 202, but closed 1800 already. Still running the 200 shares short down, looking at the 140-150 region of support. Mentioned these on twitter as well!Just a trade - will be sharing more here! RealisedGains Investing 25 April 2023 18:36 UTC+08:00 Still in the same positions - I don't think earnings will be good except maybe for banks. Retail sales already showed weakness last week! As I mentioned above I am looking at low 400s for $SPY and 140-150 on $TSLA still. Sideways movement is good for traders ✌🏼 RealisedGains Investing 26 April 2023 01:47 UTC+08:00 All shorts still doing good! Sorry if the updates are not as frequent, I prefer this style of swing trading now as it a lot less stress-free compared to day-trading. We are reaching our TPs soon. Will post an update when I close 👍🏻 RealisedGains Investing 26 April 2023 22:22 UTC+08:00 looking at same levels for $SPY, still in my $TSLA short from 200 as well. Patience! Very close now! Start putting close orders or trailing SLs at today's US close. 🙌🏼 Unknown 26 April 2023 22:28 UTC+08:00 very beautifully done - $SPY & $TSLA dropping, Gold and Bitcoin moving as I said as well! Good pivot in stance after retail sales. Closing some soon & now we wait for FOMC. RealisedGains Investing 28 April 2023 02:42 UTC+08:00 yesterday's SL at close triggered for my direct shorts on $SPY & $TSLA, still holding my bearish credit spreads down that expire tomorrow, given how far away they are, $QQQ has to go 338 and $SPY has to go to 435 for me to lose. just collecting my monthly 1-2% on my main account. a lot of people think trading is very stressful, but at the end of the day it's really how you manage risk. will be starting day trading a smaller account (1-2k) more speculatively next week! Unknown 28 April 2023 02:50 UTC+08:00 Pardon my colloquial speaking, sharing this for learning purposes. Had a friend earlier ask me if it's still worth to short here. At the prices earlier today, I argued that it would be better off selling direct puts for $TSLA at 135-140. Of course, this depends on the time frame you are looking at. To have such sufficient premium, these credits have to be accrued over a much larger time frame. However, with FOMC coming up next week (May 2) I would either ladder in slowly, and stack there depending on the data. In other news, I will be doing some basic trading group lessons for free next month just to collect some testimonials but this will be limited slots for now due to my time constraints. (ps. I am also still learning as I go along🙂) Unknown 28 April 2023 02:50 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 3 May 2023 21:15 UTC+08:00 What is ADP and is it significant towards the upcoming Govt NFP data?Generally ADP is a smaller sample sized benchmark to the upcoming NFP data. Historically, ADP has come in lower 9/11 times compared to NFP. With this figure 142k about the forecast, this foreshadows another NFP beat. To put things rudimentarily, if the job market is still strong, this gives Powell leeway to hike once more into the FOMC, however I don't think it will be more than the 25 basis points into the 5. 25 FFR forecasted tomorrow. Likely just a longer slower bleed, we will keep staying at this range till something breaks. Unknown 3 May 2023 21:18 UTC+08:00 How do we trade FOMC tomorrow? As always, the guidance is more important. If he pushes the rhethoric for longer sustained rates and opts to not pause (I think this possibly happens given the NFP data), we get a push down to low 400s on $SPY and heavier drawdowns on growth stocks. It's important to note tech, growth and banking sectors are not correlated. Higher rates might still be beneficial for bigger banks contingent if firesales and bailouts keep happening as we recently saw. Don't think crypto or gold crashes, floor is clearly established barring no black swan event. Still doing bullish spreads or outright spot holdings on Gold as I think we are in a ranging kangaroo market, no point going heavy leverage here. Also like bearish credit spreads on $QQQ, I think there's more premiums as compared to $SPY. Will live trade tomorrow. RealisedGains Investing 10 May 2023 00:15 UTC+08:00 How do we approach CPI?CPI tomorrow should probably still read high, just like NFP. I still think we have a ways to go before interest rate hikes end. However, this doesn't make the idea of a soft landing impossible. So far, it looks like the FEDs are threading this fine line carefully and markets are holding up. Best way to take advantage of this with least stress is still credit spreads in this kangaroo market. Don't think equities go much much higher than this for now. Still at resistance and earnings are over so not much headwinds or big news barring a black swan event. RealisedGains Investing 10 May 2023 20:20 UTC+08:00 10 more minutes! This should bring a lot of volatility. Most estimates are at 5%. Unknown 10 May 2023 20:31 UTC+08:00 Mildly Bullish but not too much honestly. . . 4. 9% under expectations of 5% Unknown 10 May 2023 20:34 UTC+08:00 I would countertrade the rally cause I think people think this is bigger than it is, probably scalping today looking for short-term shorts. Unknown 10 May 2023 20:39 UTC+08:00 Generally, I think a slightly lower than expected CPI number is mildly bullish for equities cause it implies a possible slowdown of rate hikes. However, the number is still too high. Today's movement should be faded back to pre-CPI levels, think $BTC possibly retests down to 27. 6k minimally then we watch that level. I still think Bitcoin and Gold will hold around these price levels. Good for scalps. If we get another chance at a 24-25k $BTC that level is crucial, $XAU probably holds steady here. RealisedGains Investing 10 May 2023 21:40 UTC+08:00 Historically, I don't see BTC in the same vein as Gold, BTC is too volatile to be considered a safe haven asset, and it correlates very strongly with the indices. So Inflation up, Equities down, BTC down/muted, Gold up. With today's lower than expected inflation, Equities up, BTC up/muted, Gold down. As always, FED guidance is more important. Data is just data. Unknown 10 May 2023 21:42 UTC+08:00 As usual, bait the retail who can only buy into the news after the US opens, and we're seeing our reversal down to fade this news already! Unknown 10 May 2023 21:48 UTC+08:00 Today's Range:$SPY support at 410-411$BTC support at 27. 6-27. 8k(POC) Point of control still strong here. Doesn't mean I am longing there, there's still a gap below. As I mentioned, today is just for scalping at least partial TP some and employ trailing stops. Going for a large play possibly! RealisedGains Investing 10 May 2023 22:46 UTC+08:00 Why I still think credit spreads are good if you are aiming for a chill way to grow your portfolio. I think the rate that inflation is going down is still slow, given the geopolitical headwinds, and their lack of ability to provide stimulus anymore if the FEDs are aiming for a soft landing. It's unlikely we see significant volatile bullish momentum to the upside, If anything it's just a slow grind. Still same levels for $BTC & $SPY, looking at these 2 today. Unknown 10 May 2023 22:46 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 11 May 2023 01:14 UTC+08:00 getting our move on $BTC and $SPY now! watch this area! same numbers 👌🏼$SPY support at 410-411$BTC support at 27. 6-27. 8k Unknown 11 May 2023 01:16 UTC+08:00 Good profits ✌🏻 About 2k Total today. Realised 1k, 1k left running. Just a side account. Not huge profits but I have to trade according to the size. Not always about absolute value. It's about risk management! Basically doubled the account though. Unknown 11 May 2023 01:17 UTC+08:00 Holding the remainder; large play as I said! 🤷🏻‍♂️ Unknown 11 May 2023 01:24 UTC+08:00 Going for 24-25k for the next support region on $BTC for my 2nd TP. I'll assess exact numbers in a bit! Unknown 11 May 2023 01:26 UTC+08:00 As you can see from my previous assessments above; we fade the FOMC day by going bearish neutral with credit spreads. Of course with CPI data today, you could continue bearish neutral and still be profitable but I employed more direct short selling for more profits as I think we stayed at this region long enough. Consolidation is over and it's time we breakdown. Unknown 11 May 2023 01:28 UTC+08:00 Full Disclosure my Crypto is just a $2000 highly speculative account. Not my main options portfolio where I am aiming for my sustained passive growth. . . Really depends on your risk appetite tbh. I am more speculative cause I am full-time doing this and I would like to believe fairly experienced and learned. As I would like to repeat, I am still learning : ) Unknown 11 May 2023 01:31 UTC+08:00 Evidently we are aiming for 24/25k on 50% close and 27. 5k on 50% close. We had a more or less perfect entry on both $BTC and $SPY, at most 1 hour of pain. As long as the R:R makes sense given how many pips down is the target! RealisedGains Investing 11 May 2023 01:46 UTC+08:00 So where do we long? I prefer to wait for FOMC guidance and the debt ceiling on Friday to be released first along with more confluence of my indicators. I am still in my 3/6 Months $GLD Gold Bull Put spreads of course. I am not entirely sure on the rhetoric of $BTC as a safe haven asset as I mentioned but I like gold. If you scroll up, I also correctly assessed the boring range last month so I did make through my credit spreads as well, albeit not as much. Also, the $TSLA short from $200 to $148 move was my most profitable trade which I also closed above. Not 100% executed optimally, but profits are profits. We move on to the next trade. RealisedGains Investing 11 May 2023 21:18 UTC+08:00 Just got our PPI & Unemployment numbers - both shows signs that inflation is slowing and with unemployment greater than forecast, we do have more spare capacity. To be fair, these are m/m which means inflation is of course still stick and ever present. We have FOMC Waller speaking later but I don't think we move much, still holding on to my positions. Nothing too surprising today! RealisedGains Investing 13 May 2023 05:19 UTC+08:00 Just got our flush to 25. 8k! As I said, entered this trade from the 28. 3k short, closed off 75% already. Leaving the rest in a trailing SL! Hope you guys took profits ✌🏻 Unknown 13 May 2023 05:21 UTC+08:00 Understand this is an ungodly hour, but the trick to trading is to be awake or pay attention during market close or open! You notice that reversal was right before US market close - so it's important to take note of session opens and closes as well. You also can see from the telegram history i'm not trading every single day. Times that you are not trading are times you should rest tbh. Unknown 13 May 2023 05:22 UTC+08:00 Leaving my last 25% for a full TP at 24. 8k - 25. 1k and i'll potentially flip long there for $BTC! RealisedGains Investing 13 May 2023 05:40 UTC+08:00 A very very key region of support would be 24. 2k - 24. 5k, I would potentially bid there if we get there. These are not exact numbers and we have to wait for the day itself but these are 2 examples of setups with a 1:2 R:R, always aiming for positive expectancy. I think both options have possibility of it playing out. Unknown 13 May 2023 05:43 UTC+08:00 If we assess this flush to 25k we can see it hit perfectly the 1. 618 extension of your first A Wave from 28. 3k if you believe in the Elliot Wave theory, however I don't think it's validated yet cause this is such a short timeframe and so wickish. Just closed some there out of caution and considering it was close to the US market close! Unknown 13 May 2023 05:44 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 15 May 2023 22:34 UTC+08:00 Good close on the $BTC positions there! Already closed majority. Switching my attention to $SPY today as we got a massive miss on the Empire State Manufacturing Index (Index: -31. 8 vs -3. 7 expected vs +10. 8 April!). This is an extreme reading, and, ultimately, another signal that the markets are getting weaker and weaker. This generally is bearish on the DXY and in turn, Crypto should head higher in the short-term! Unknown 15 May 2023 22:39 UTC+08:00 Choppish market means back to spreads for this week. To be very fair we have been staying in this tight consolidation range for 6 weeks now! Just something to bear in mind. History doesn't always repeat itself, but it rhymes. Only notable news this week is retail sales and unemployment claims the next 2 days. Today should be boring! Move already happened in London & Asian hours! Unknown 15 May 2023 22:39 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 17 May 2023 22:02 UTC+08:00 still looking at this! I think that's a very key area of support ✌🏼 RealisedGains Investing 19 May 2023 14:01 UTC+08:00 We have a BIG day today. Powell speaking 2 hours after the market opens. It really speaks to how centralised the financial system is given how dependent we are on sentiments right now. I don’t think they would want to spook the markets too much given how fragile the banking system is. Probably the same rhetoric that financial conditions are sufficiently tight, inflation is coming down, and they remain nimble. RSI on $QQQ is above 70+ now, $VIX super low, and also $DXY and $SPY/$QQQ are both trending up strongly. I think the play here is to wait for $XAU & $BTC to reach the support levels and place buys with SLs. You can also do a call ratio back spread on $VIX or $UVXY as insurance on the main portfolio since it is sufficiently low as well. Looking at 1943 - 1935 for $XAU24. 8k - 23. 8k for $BTC15-14 for $VIXWider range because the ATR for these counters are pretty high, but the R:R for upside is definitely there! RealisedGains Investing 19 May 2023 23:22 UTC+08:00 Quick $SPY short for 3. 5k Profits today, bought more Gold as well! I think $BTC will trend the same as gold! Unknown 19 May 2023 23:24 UTC+08:00 Was purely scalp trading Powell's speech - no actual TA here actually! Just 6 Minutes between buys and sells ✌🏻Watching here: https://www. youtube. com/watch?v=7OwauW8dA3w&ab_channel=CNBCTelevision Unknown 19 May 2023 23:33 UTC+08:00 I have longer dated options I think we go back down later on. As I mentioned, since I expect $VIX to go up, I think $SPY/QQQ goes down in the mid-term. Opened a back call ratio on $VIX already! Unknown 19 May 2023 23:35 UTC+08:00 Gold/BTC/VIX up, SPY/QQQ down, already mentioned this earlier today was what I was looking at. If I held till now it would have been 10k, but I simply don't like the decay since my expiration was 3DTE, I have other positions though! Unknown 19 May 2023 23:38 UTC+08:00 Should have held these longer. . . Bought at 1. 89, it's at 3. 60 right now. . . Would have made 20k 😂 that being said, that was just momentum trading using VWAP & the speech, I am still having difficulty pricing the options sell price cause I can't calculate delta change on the fly. I was not prepared with my numbers today and that's my fault. Unknown 19 May 2023 23:47 UTC+08:00 ⚠️BREAKING: DEBT LIMIT TALKS HIT ROADBLOCK AS GOP NEGOTIATORS WALK OUTI have no doubt they have to raise the debt ceiling still though. . . The US literally can't function in the near-term without printing money. RealisedGains Investing 20 May 2023 02:35 UTC+08:00 we are back down! if you are more risk averse, apply a back ratio call spread on $VIX or a mid-term bear call spread on $SPY is not the worst here. for the latter, i think something like buy call 440-445 & sell call 435-440 is a safe/conservative approach. for expirations, i would put them away from big news/earnings day cause you don't want the IV that comes with that. Unknown 20 May 2023 02:35 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 20 May 2023 11:35 UTC+08:00 Dropping a video on my Current Trading Strategy as well as my running trades! (Small $BTC short (20% left), Gold $XAU Spot from 1800, $SPY Bear Call Credit Spreads) https://youtu. be/LV4S4I49l6Y(0:00) What I have been up to(2:17) Investing VS Trading(4:05) Long-Term VS Short-Term Outlook(5:06) Identifying ReversalsDifferent Strategies for Different Conditions(5:41) Long-Term: Credit Spreads(8:35) Short-Term: VWAP(11:55) Where am i Trading at now(12:41) Balancing a Core-Satellite Portfolio(14:51) History of Gold VS Bitcoin RealisedGains Investing 22 May 2023 20:27 UTC+08:00 These few days should be slow moving, no big news except till Thursday we have FOMC Minutes, GDP, Unemployment Claims & PCE. I will just be selling calls these first few days of this week & starting to ladder in shorts on equities - Think we're still overbought. Still bullish on gold! RealisedGains Investing 22 May 2023 23:19 UTC+08:00 Currently re-entered back on the $BTC short on small size, entered at 27k, but I am still waiting for these levels. $SPY should not move much today but trickle down given no news. Unlikely we don't raise the debt limit, the US cannot afford to have their credit ratings drop, but we shall wait for that decision this week! RealisedGains Investing 23 May 2023 21:19 UTC+08:00 Still not much movement, the last time they had a debt ceiling stalemate iirc was in 2013, but the US has never defaulted on its' debt. It will be raised. However, the narrative they push with the FOMC minutes and PCE index on how they are tackling debt and inflation will be more telling on market direction. As of now, at least to me, equities are overbought and gold is oversold! RealisedGains Investing 24 May 2023 02:51 UTC+08:00 Short $SPY doing good, $BTC still neutral bearish! Gold up already. Positions mostly all green already ✌🏼 Unknown 24 May 2023 03:06 UTC+08:00 $SPY/$QQQ already down significantly, think there's still more downside risk contingent on the FOMC Meeting Minutes & PCE Data coming out later on this week! Markets probably just de-risking ahead of the news - better to react than try to predict, but as I said debt ceiling probably raised by June 1, but narrative still hawkish. RealisedGains Investing 24 May 2023 19:44 UTC+08:00 Yellen speaks tonight, and FOMC Minutes right after! All positions are deep ITM & green already. Another good trade! I am trailing stops and watching tonight. I think if rates continue increasing, more banks will feel the heat. Bull run still not here imo, this is the year for spreads and a kangaroo market. Just as I assessed last week,I think $SPY at resistance already$XAU should be performing up,$BTC should be neutral as I am still not sure on it's rhethoric as a safe-haven asset. - I am still laddering more gold! - I am not touching $NVDA, or even $TSLA at the moment as earnings are today and I rather react! - For those copy trading my crypto positions (NFA DYOR), I am currently sized quite small as I am not sure how this API functions yet, apparently only allowed to do market orders which sucks. RealisedGains Investing 25 May 2023 04:26 UTC+08:00 FOMC Meeting Minutes Summary- Debt Limit to increase, Rate Cuts Unlikely but split on decisions to hike, Mild Recession Forecasted. TLDR; mildly bullish neutral on equities for now but I think we still continue with hikes as Inflation is still not fully in control, more banks will crack. Unknown 25 May 2023 04:31 UTC+08:00 Biggest winner today $NVDA, not day trading this but I am just holding some small spot for the AI rhetoric!I think eventually we probably get a mild recession/soft landing. I rather this than $TSLA. When a bubble is pumping, best to just follow the trend 😂 RealisedGains Investing 25 May 2023 10:07 UTC+08:00 Still in $BTC short as I mentioned. Starting Capital: 1k USDStart Date: May 2023Current Capital: 3. 2k USDPrevious Trade 28. 3k Short Closed at 26. 5k, Re-opened Short will probably close early. For those who want to copytrade or trade with me, do sign up at the referral link at the QR Code or here:https://www. toobit. com/en-US/register?invite_code=jTwqODCurrently only risking 0. 5-1% of Capital per trade at a 1:3-6 R:R, meaning on my $3k Capital I am risking $15-30 per trade to make $45-90. Very moderate, but you can size up if you want. Just being disciplined on a small account. RealisedGains Investing 26 May 2023 21:43 UTC+08:00 PCE inflation, the Fed's "preferred inflation gauge," RISES to 4. 4%, above expectations of 3. 9%. This is a major setback to the Fed's fight against inflation. A few weeks ago, no one was expecting further IR hikes but as we can see and as I mentioned, inflation is still sticky. I still think eventually there will be more rate hikes and a good correction to get in on stocks so not too worried at the moment. Still DCA-ing on my gold spreads! RealisedGains Investing 27 May 2023 15:58 UTC+08:00 Just want to add that this is a tech rally spurred by a few big names: AAPL, NVDA, TSLA, which is why the tech index performed so well, a lot of other names are still down. This is really bad breadth. Additionally, $QQQ is within 1% of its 61. 8% fib (golden ratio) from Nov:21 top, $405, to Oct:22 bottom, $260. Why does this matter? The 2000 & 2008 bear markets rallies both stalled at their respective 61. 8% fib retracements! 🤔A lot is based on the debt ceiling decision! There are still warning signs (sticky inflation, regional banking crises, consumer spending slowdown, credit card balance building, etc) despite this bullish rhetoric (AI). RealisedGains Investing 27 May 2023 16:18 UTC+08:00 A writeup on the debt ceiling talks. Inflation is still high and will remain stickier if we raise the debt ceiling, however it is necessary to ensure the US functions. What I think will happenRepublicans & Democrats stall the decision to the last minute, eventually raising ceiling. Raising the ceiling has already been priced in so expect this to be a buy the rumour, sell the news situation. Just a quick dip then market resumes trend up slowly. On the small chance, they delay to the point ratings drop, expect a more significant drop. Recall 2011 (Image Attached) The greatest risk on US debt is not the Default, it has not happened before as they can keep shifting the goal post. The greatest risk is the debate taking too long and the credit rating go down. Eventually though, I expect subsequent FOMC rate hikes to dip the market a little, but the real damage is on small banks and mortgages - more defaults and bailouts would be the one that causes a more significant drop later on. RealisedGains Investing 28 May 2023 18:21 UTC+08:00 Debt ceiling tentative deal reached earlier today. Doubt this was unexpected, think this is a sell the news sort of event! RealisedGains Investing 30 May 2023 19:37 UTC+08:00 $XAU 1935 presented a strong bottom for Gold today! Didn't get in on the $BTC longs but gold can at least get to 1965 in my opinion!I think equities right now are fairly overbought and has some tail risk with the debt ceiling delay but cautiously bullish now! I am trying out some cash secured puts for $SPY at 409, 416 levels till FOMC hearing! I don't mind being assigned. Should be a nice opening to the markets in a few hours! RealisedGains Investing 30 May 2023 22:28 UTC+08:00 Current Positions, Down a little bit on my short on $SPY from 419. 99 but I am selling near-dated puts so I can hedge those puts as well as flip into buys at 409, 406, 418 levels. Just cut my tech exposure on $TSLA $QQQ & $NVDA today. Think debt ceiling already priced in, will wait for better entries to go long on equities! Also probably entering China equities since today China stocks got crushed. Unknown 30 May 2023 22:40 UTC+08:00 Side Note: Not all of these are great R:R, I was just experimenting between Credit & Debit Spreads and trying to calculate the Greeks if the positions are worth it. I think $BTC is mid-term bullish, Equities $SPY short-term bullish, next big date is probably FOMC. I am also purchasing some US bonds to try. You might be wondering, are bonds just for boomers? I don't believe so. I think having some cash equivalent is good in this market conditions as we're not going to hyper rally anyway given the yield curve is still inverted imo. We're not trying to make money off the yields but on the face value of the bond. I believe Bond Valuations are low and we are reaching a pause in hikes soon, with easing conditions, rates pause/drop, yields drop, bond prices will spike. Given I am not putting a 6 digit sum, and I don't think everyone has 6 digits to casually throw around, I am looking into bond funds (i. e. PIMCO, SEI, VWESX). Also increasing exposure on my Chinese Equities slowly on another account! Still optimising my portfolio allocation and practising some QF. RealisedGains Investing 31 May 2023 00:47 UTC+08:00 Here's how the $SPY chart looks right now, Currently in a short from Entry: 420 (shown above)TP: 412. 65-414. 85SL: 422 (previous high)R:R 1:2 (approx)closing short tentatively at 412-413, leaving some to run a little lower (own discretion) probably looking for longs at 406-409, selling cash secured puts about 7DTE there - closer to the 100 EMA if we get there. Unknown 31 May 2023 00:54 UTC+08:00 Likewise on $BTC, it is somewhat correlated to $SPY, it has a high correlation depending on the narrative. If it is a IR related news event or a M2 money supply related I think they correlate. However, if it relates to financial system breakdown there is some dissonance. If this does not make sense to you, it's okay. We bid 26. 8 - 27. 1k, next leg I believe is up. Even at absolute worst, there is support at 25k. I suggest not to be highly levered as the ATR on $BTC is huge. Both of these trades are quite speculative as we have no way of knowing when the debt ceiling will be signed. If you want a sure-er way of making money. Just sell cash covered puts for both or waiting for the supports to buy instead of trying to short. RealisedGains Investing 31 May 2023 13:45 UTC+08:00 $BTC down to 26. 8k - 27. 1k as I mentioned earlier and $SPY already being pushed down on ES/US500 futures. I also made additional profits from my $SPY cash covered puts not assigning, I generally put them below supports and I further try to time them by calculating daily ATR/IV to make sure they don't get assigned unless I really want them to. I did strikes 418, 415, 411 on 30/5, 31/5 and 02/6 respectively. First one has already expired without assigning and I re-opened 411 right after that closed. These are just meant to close my short and average to a better entry/hedge the position. Will be putting all my trades on excel and doing livestreams soon. Just relocating right now! I am exploring soybean/copper futures now but more so for experimenting, not to trade with size - my mainstays will still be equities and crypto. Unknown 31 May 2023 13:48 UTC+08:00 Think my trades the last year have been all good if you scroll yourself yourself and have been here awhile - fully transparent! Just fairly downsized (on most days)- actually practising proper risk management now. IF you want to follow along and use leverage/margin do so at your own risk. I can stomach losses cause this is within my means. It's all at the end of the day: risk management & positive expectancy. Be back in the US open later! Unknown 31 May 2023 13:50 UTC+08:00 Unknown 31 May 2023 14:01 UTC+08:00 Gold pushing to 1965 right now, will layer off some now. There's a different strategy for different derivatives. On my options account, I do debit/credit spreads, large swing plays ONLY as I cannot close in after hours such as now, however, since I benefit from decay I am not concerned with smaller swings outside of US hours. That being said Gold has a lot of movement even in London hours, rarely in Asian hours. For my CFD account I do strict buy/sell as I am able to close at any time of the day. To put things simply: there is a core/satellite portfolio & we further subdivide according to derivatives and assets. - For Options (Swing Trading): WeBull/ToS/IBKR (Equities/GLD/Buy & Hold)https://www. webull. com. sg/i/sgseowie- For CFDs (Day Trading): XM (XAU Gold only, now exploring Silver/Soybeans/WTI) I don't bother with US500 here, no liquidity on non-US hours. www. xm. com/gw. php?gid=209620- For Crypto Futures: TooBit(BTC/ETH Futures only)https://www. xm. com/gw. php?gid=209620 Unknown 31 May 2023 14:08 UTC+08:00 I am closing shorts early on $BTC or putting tight trailing SLs, I think market can be up by end of the week contingent on debt ceiling deal/negotiations. Will look for longs instead! I have other positions to manage ✌🏼Also don't want to to spam too much here or make this a "signal group". Writing a script to automate content across Telegram/Discord/Twitter now 👍🏻 C'yall at night later! RealisedGains Investing 31 May 2023 14:34 UTC+08:00 Good close. TPs hit! 1965 $XAU 🤟🏼 RealisedGains Investing 31 May 2023 15:23 UTC+08:00 Support at 1949-1951 for $XAU. Close shorts flip into longs there. I normally close before the High Volume Node and wait for guppy/technicals flip. All fluid!London session will likely form a base support for gold. With US equities continuing to drawdown, I expect gold to relief back up in the US Session. Probably a risk-on/risk-off scenario. $BTC does not play on this narrative. I think $BTC slowly decouples as a risk asset later on this year and goes up for the next leg. RealisedGains Investing 31 May 2023 19:58 UTC+08:00 US Markets are opening in about an hour! Everything green ✅ again! Everyday, I am trying to sell covered puts as close as possible to the daily low with limit orders, I do so to hedge positions and try not to get assigned. To do this I set limit orders on the sell puts which I calculate the option price based on how much it should move based on Delta and other greeks. If they assign, so be it. I close my short. Otherwise, I wait for my limit buy orders to hit!So far all the last 5 trades across BTC, SPY, Gold look good! I have 6 accounts actually, so i'll share more on my portfolio allocation in later updates/videos. RealisedGains Investing 31 May 2023 21:41 UTC+08:00 Missed my entry at 1951, but Gold did relief back up in the US session! Oh well 🤷🏻‍Wasn't on the screen at that time - can't take every trade! Still as predicted! Unknown 31 May 2023 21:43 UTC+08:00 If there's a 1990 - 1995 I would consider shorting there! That should also be the same time when SPY bottoms, same risk on/risk off rhetoric! Unknown 31 May 2023 21:48 UTC+08:00 I see $XAU gold till 1982 at least. Still have meat! Unknown 31 May 2023 21:49 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 31 May 2023 22:32 UTC+08:00 $SPY shorts & bear call spreads doing well. Okay in hindsight, the sell put 415 was quite dumb but considering all the CC puts I sold the last 3 days, I get 0. 35 credit for it. If I am forced to close it and get assigned today, it does make me close at 415 - 0. 35 = 414. 65, which is also my TP area. So be it! 🤷🏻‍♂️As I said, I am still optimising my options strategy but I think my technicals and fundamentals for trading are decent already! RealisedGains Investing 1 June 2023 04:08 UTC+08:00 Quite a funny double tap into the supply zone there to squeeze out late shorts right before the bell! 😂 Still in almost all of my positions. Rolled today's unassigned positions into more CC puts, added 392 16/6 CC puts after FOMC. Still in Crypto $BTC & Gold $XAU Positions on CFD/Futures account too! Also bought bonds on core portfolio! Unknown 1 June 2023 04:08 UTC+08:00 Unknown 1 June 2023 04:15 UTC+08:00 Very likely the debt ceiling deal is passing house today or by this week so I am prepared for this to rebound soon or go flat depending on the budget details. I am now employing trailing stops but also have many CC puts to hedge already. RealisedGains Investing 1 June 2023 21:55 UTC+08:00 Still in $SPY shorts, rolling more CC puts to hedge. Taking it easy today, out for drinks. Not much to add. . . I bought some $BTC spot with the profits but this is just for my extremely long-term hold and I don't care if it goes to zero. Unknown 1 June 2023 22:04 UTC+08:00 Size is smaller than I am normally trading because I am travelling, chilling & want to take it easy for awhile! Maybe this is smarter & better for my psyche. Will be back trading slightly more aggressively after I settle down where I want to stay. I am just updating even though there is nothing new today; ISM/PMI data as expected!New Youtube Video: Trading Travel Nomad + Current Market Outlook RealisedGains Investing 1 June 2023 23:35 UTC+08:00 Gold now pushing 1982! $SPY short is hedged so not too bad - Layered off some already! RealisedGains Investing 2 June 2023 11:29 UTC+08:00 EURUSD reacting strongly to the debt ceiling news. Still have upside here! Unknown 2 June 2023 11:36 UTC+08:00 Warning when trading news, if you do this - it is quite easy to trade if you can interpret the data fast; in terms of strength & subsequent move. Generally if you have access to Bloomberg terminal, you can assess news/data the second it comes out. The last prop firm and bank I worked at, I was able to take advantage of this. For retails, your next best bet would be to use Twitter/refresh forex factory. Faster data doesn't automatically mean better entry anyway; as market can wick both sides on the second news drops. You are generally 15-30s later on your own but still fast enough then most other retails imo. For instance, this debt ceiling move is very largely already priced in but I think dollar cools off here these next few days. I would not day trade this particular news. Also, asian hours now so it's weak! RealisedGains Investing 2 June 2023 12:00 UTC+08:00 Still the same levels! (as above) These setups take awhile! I am not day-trading. I bought at 1935 & see $XAU topping out close to 2000At the same time, this will be when $VIX bottoms 14-15, I estimate $SPY to be 429-432 then. That one is worth a short hit. For now I am just selling more CC puts but at short expirations, I do these everyday (7-14 days). Will have to watch the timings on this if it confluences close to FOMC, might take awhile. I really missed out a lot of gains on this AI narrative driven rally by not buying any more $NVDA, $META, $AAPL, $TSLA yes, but I am just wary of individual counters. Maybe I will buy an ETF next time - I am not chasing!$BTC i am adding to my spot holdings at that 23-25k support if we get there, I would love it. (I don't care if we go to zero on this). RealisedGains Investing 2 June 2023 18:01 UTC+08:00 China positions rebounded huge today! China does look a lot better to me in terms of financials and macro condition if you discount regulatory risk. They have a better trade surplus, and an increasing M2 Money Supply from easing conditions. Hard to pick direct stocks so I am going with broad ETFs and for AI exposure $BABA at 78-81 is extremely cheap to me - adding to core portfolio as well since 3 days ago as mentioned! Unknown 2 June 2023 18:07 UTC+08:00 Is China's AI Race heating up too?Mentioned this a few days back but it's also worth noting that if you're betting on AI, you can buy all the $NVDA at 222X P/E valuation, but we have $BABA making similar strides at 9x Forward P/E. Technically, it's also extremely oversold. Think $META, $TSLA at October 22' Lows VS now. Worth a look into!Additionally, we have June 18 Online Shopping Festivals coming up, 2nd only to Single's Day. Alibaba Group provides services through its subsidiaries, including Taobao, Tmall, Freshippo, Aliexpress, Lazada, Alibaba. com, 1688. com, ele. me, Youku, DingTalk, Alimama, Alibaba Cloud, and Cai Niao. There's a lot to read on most days, and I am only just beginning to read up on China Markets and Foreign Currencies! RealisedGains Investing 2 June 2023 22:08 UTC+08:00 Gold $XAU good rejection off 1982! $VIX moving under 15 and $SPY is getting to my 428-432 levels. Volatile first 30 Minutes of the market. I am getting into back call ratios on VIX soon to hedge the portfolio! RealisedGains Investing 3 June 2023 12:31 UTC+08:00 $BABA Testing a 9-year horizontal support. Bouncing off a 2. 5-year bear market trendline. Finding huge buying volume each time it tests this support over the last 1. 5 years. Someone is patiently accumulating. (me)What do you think is going to happen? 🤔DYOR, NFA. RealisedGains Investing 6 June 2023 00:05 UTC+08:00 We got our shopping day! 🩸Nothing I wasn't prepared for!All 3 are now hitting these levels mentioned a week ago! I will be buying $BTC and doing back call ratios on $VIX at these prices 👌🏼 Let's see how they react here!1943 - 1935 for $XAU24. 8k - 23. 8k for $BTC15-14 for $VIX Unknown 6 June 2023 00:08 UTC+08:00 As you can see my $XAU gold bounced off those lows perfectly and I am still holding! $VIX / $SPY I am now hedged short. $BTC getting there! These are strong supports to me so once I get an entry I am just either hedging or selling covered calls on them. If you're following along, do note I react very quickly as I am watching 24/7 so don't attempt to copy the daytrades! Just for learning purposes 👌🏼 RealisedGains Investing 6 June 2023 02:34 UTC+08:00 Click the above mentioned to see my gameplan. As I said $SPY 429-432 is worth a short hit. I can see this going to potentially 411-415, I will re-assess there. $BTC is a more speculative play. I am reloading up the spot I sold with profits from my trades! The Binance FUD doesn't change how I see crypto in the long-term. RealisedGains Investing 8 June 2023 02:56 UTC+08:00 In the short-term I think $NVDA retraces the next couple of days. FEDs need to pull out liquidity to fill their TGA soon which I think will cause a broad market pullback before resuming depending on the FOMC next week! I'll try to summarise these findings with a write-up tomorrow 👌🏼 Unknown 8 June 2023 02:58 UTC+08:00 Already in $SPY bear call spreads since 3 days ago. I have $QQQ as well on my other account. Although it's a slow bleed down, the time decay has been working in my favour and since the entry was good, all already quite ITM. $BTC I have also bought spot that day of Binance/Coinbase FUD as I said RealisedGains Investing 9 June 2023 04:46 UTC+08:00 $TSLA still running! This news has been out for a long while but I think we're in a low volume node now. Tesla has legs till 255-259 eventually. To me $NVDA is a bit out of steam. It needs to trickle down into other stocks and the economy has to have more breadth if this rally is to be sustained. Still due for a minor pullback on equities in my opinion. RealisedGains Investing 10 June 2023 00:32 UTC+08:00 I'm in a small short $QQQ around $354, will cut if I see a narrative change - dumped my tech, think we retrace on the short-term, market is a bit too irrationally overheated at the moment. Looking for 325 - 333 on $QQQ to load back up & around 400-405-410-15 on $SPY, hard to time the tops and bottoms so i'll just wait for confirmation. RealisedGains Investing 10 June 2023 13:22 UTC+08:00 I am short $SOL $ADA $MATIC $BNB as well after the coinbase/binance SEC crackdowns. There will be more forced selling as US shuts down their on/off ramp by 13th June. While we have news FTX might be re-opening, there is also no reason a lot of these ALTs are still around and will survive what will be a stricter and more regulatory environment moving forward!These positions will hedge my $BTC buys which I think alts will shift back into after this drama subsides. . . ✌🏼Join me trading at Toobit:https://www. toobit. com/en-US/register/invite?invite_code=yHEHQs Unknown 10 June 2023 13:27 UTC+08:00 There will be a lot more forced selling & all you need to do is stay abreast of which coins are going to be delisted. Cardano, Polygon, and Solana already delisted by Robinhood (16 hours ago), along with Matic, Ada, Solana with Coinbase (24 hours ago). . . Very clear the SEC means business now. Not spreading FUD but I think most of these coins don't recover. I am only a believer in Bitcoin/Eth long-term personally for me - I don't care for L2s or Alts. RealisedGains Investing 10 June 2023 14:03 UTC+08:00 A lot of news this morning I need to update but I think these are important. The SEC is also re-defining the lines of their credit rating references. They've done this previously with inflation definitions ("changing calculations") and recession guidelines ("2 consecutive quarters"). What does this tell me?Either they are already poised for a downgrade given their irresponsible QE and debt ceiling upgrades and are front running the impact possibly. In addition, to CPI, FOMC, and the TGA refill draining liquidity. I might be wrong, but I still stand by my stance that it is risk-off for the markets here at least for the near-term. Source: SEC changes Credit Rating Terms RealisedGains Investing 10 June 2023 19:18 UTC+08:00 One thing I am watching very closely is the XRP lawsuit. I think how it is defined as a security on the context of Howe's Law may allow crypto to run-up. This lawsuit will set the precedence for regulatory actions regarding crypto, allowing for a run-up after this drama subsides. I rather be reactive than predictive - most retail are too slow to catch the run-up anyway or too fast to catch the falling knife. Once news is out, I'll decide. Source: XRP Lawsuit RealisedGains Investing 12 June 2023 15:32 UTC+08:00 Still holding on to $BNB shorts; I think one thing to note is that Binance holds 70-80% of circulating supply and they might need to dump some holdings to insure deposits. I am unsure how they operate but I am almost certain all Crypto Exchanges operate unscrupulously in some capacity, they are likely lending out your deposits in T-Bills/Collateralizing it in Stables. Floor can be deep on this so not taking profits yet, just trailing very distant stops. Can't hold this forever due to funding though. . . I'll make a bold claim and say Binance will not be allowed back into the US anymore and that absence of market liquidity coupled with their self-inflated price as they are the only MM will make it so we don't see ATH on this anymore. Join me trading at Toobit Unknown 12 June 2023 15:39 UTC+08:00 The more BNB drops, the more BTC/ETH CZ sells as "plunge protection"/"insurance fund" and that includes your funds [if they're still on Binance]. I think Binance stays as a platform IF CZ has not been commingling funds - I have seen Binance function when $BNB was single digit and it's profitability as a business from the derivative market standpoint is not at all affected by US Regulatory shut-down, as for the valuation of $BNB however and other crypto, short-term dip - I will still be buying for the long-term. RealisedGains Investing 12 June 2023 21:53 UTC+08:00 Still in $QQQ shorts, $NVDA bear call spreads, $META bear call spreads. Slightly red just now, but I am chill. Think the CPI & FOMC is already priced in. Even a rally here would be short-lived imo! RealisedGains Investing 12 June 2023 22:13 UTC+08:00 If you compare the Wilshire5000, Russell2000, SP500, QQQ100. You can see the QQQ is the most overbought amongst them. I see $QQQ support at 354. 33, 348-350, 332-338. I will flip into longs later! Let's see how this week goes. Should be volatile! RealisedGains Investing 13 June 2023 21:14 UTC+08:00 Inflation came out 4. 0, 0. 1 under expectations of 4. 1. Still I think core inflation with housing & food is much stickier. These numbers to me don't mean much. Clearly analysts knew inflation would be coming down hence the run-up recently. Doesn't detract from the fact that the breadth of this market is still very very bad. I expect it to retrace still so holding on to my bear put spreads and selling calls on my portfolio positions - Won't be buying calls here. June to September are also historically bad months for equities/crypto. A likely pause this FOMC but still cautious of hawkish guidance from the FEDs as well as quadruple witching! Should still have volatility this week! RealisedGains Investing 15 June 2023 02:15 UTC+08:00 FOMC pause! but signals 2 more increases likely - Markets reacting down 🫡🩸 Unknown 15 June 2023 02:17 UTC+08:00 Still in my bear call spreads, I was indeed a little early but given that they are spreads, I should be fine we shall see! 🤷🏻‍♂️ Still looking at lower targets to buy 👌🏼 RealisedGains Investing 15 June 2023 02:34 UTC+08:00 Fed Chairman Powell says that the Fed remains committed to their 2. 0% inflation target. The Fed also just said that they see inflation at 2. 5% at the END of 2024. We are likely going to remain in an elevated interest rate environment for some time if this is true. Unknown 15 June 2023 02:38 UTC+08:00 Powell speaks now, with a tinge of Volckerism. Inflation is indeed slowing and they can afford to be more data-driven but we are still far from 2% where things are. I still believe there is a technical dip coming and that dip is the one worth buying. Perhaps even smaller caps (Russell 2000) as we trickle down and cool off from the Top 7 Megacaps down to the laggards. RealisedGains Investing 15 June 2023 03:22 UTC+08:00 Fed's Powell: "We are watching CRE carefully. . . I do expect there will be losses in commercial real estate"I think conditions will not ease until 2024. This pause is just meant to aid the TGA liquidity dump and protect banks, it needs markets to run higher. The playbook for fomc meetings once again is to fade the initial news (unless unexpected) once powell speaks it reverses and then fade it again after it closes. Generally just a whipsaw and spike in volatility; which is why we long vega & do debit spreads or consider straddles. RealisedGains Investing 15 June 2023 05:03 UTC+08:00 Still in $BNB short, just bought $BTC with profits, since $BNB has a higher beta this short is just a hedge now, currently Delta Neutral but I will be buying more $BTC aggressively if we go deeper - same levels. I still believe in $BTC long-term, never cared for Alts/NFTs as you guys know, since the beginning when I started this channel 3 years ago - I've always said I would never buy alts in my long-term portfolio, just trade them. RealisedGains Investing 15 June 2023 05:19 UTC+08:00 Once again, this is an extreme stretch, but if we ever do get a black swan event and Binance truly fails - look for the long-term support at 8-12k. Back in December we wish we bought more at those same 15. 9 - 16. 3k levels. I have traded Crypto for 7 years since my old Bitmex days, and before that OTC - You never know with Crypto, as it's pursuant to too many regulatory forces trying to shut it down (from Mt Gox, to Bitmex, to Luna, to 3AC, to FTX). It is after all, anti-government, anti-establishment, anti-FED & an extremely leveraged/speculative market. Yet one thing it is, is that it is scarce, and when it rallies, it rallies. Make sure you have ammo for disaster if it happens. Don't expect but always prepare for these events. Unknown 15 June 2023 05:23 UTC+08:00 A year ago, at 60k, I targeted 15-18k for buys on Bitcoin & shorted all the way down almost perfectly adding on each wave up. (If y'all recall I was posting 5-6 Digits Live PnL quite often then)12th December 2022 I called to buy 16. 3k and after the first impulse wave I targetted 25k, then a drawdown to 20k and the move to 30k. All trades logged here. Last Month, at 30k, I said to watch for support at 23-25k, we're here now!Only thing I can say now is that we truly go to shit, it is if Binance fails, Regulatory Blanket Bans, and/or Systemic Token Failure but doesn't change my long-term view of Crypto so i'll bid still at every support cause i'm laddering really slowly. I even said a year ago if we hit 8-12k it's in March - June 2023. (I think this is extremely unlikely) & time models are largely inaccurate (so should be taken with a pinch of salt). I think we get our rally in 2025-2027, when conditions ease, so if that's your long-term timeframe, all good. All there, unedited if you scroll up. RealisedGains Investing 15 June 2023 17:02 UTC+08:00 Still in $BABA from $84, allocated about 5%. Looking at $RUM also recently after Andrew Tate & MrBeast advocated for it as a replacement/alternative to Youtube. This is a much smaller bag, just for fun. Looking at smaller caps if we get a dip, think there will be some dispersion. Breadth is so extremely bad, I can't help but feel I need to rebalance out of sound principle from $QQQ into $SPY into $DJI. Laggards will catch up! Unknown 15 June 2023 17:04 UTC+08:00 Selling calls at 157-165 to lower my cost-average. Going to actively hopefully bring my cost-average down to 75 and hold this up. Hoping for a $NVDA 😂, China also announced QE as expected. I'm looking at AMD for AI as well. Not in yet. Unknown 15 June 2023 17:16 UTC+08:00 Many countries are now pausing, while China is full-on easing monetary conditions, I think this posits a strong possibility China markets run-up. The markets yesterday called Powell's bluff, historically (90% of the time, except 1981 with Paul Volker FED Chair) after it pauses it tends to remain paused. However, countries like the UK had to backpedal on this and hike rates in subsequent meetings. Personally, I still enjoy holding my holdings in SGD, cause we have gradual modest appreciation with our $SNEER lines. However, we can't appreciate too heavily or we will be uncompetitive with our exports. Source: China cuts rates. RealisedGains Investing 16 June 2023 03:10 UTC+08:00 I think $BTC bounces here temporarily at least, closed off $BNB short hedges, flipping long temporarily! Will assess strength later, dollar extremely weak so $BTC should go up based off that along with technicals. Unknown 16 June 2023 03:14 UTC+08:00 Targeting $BTC for a break into 26. 2 - 26. 5k, will watch the strength there! I have already bought spot, this futures is just to day trade with a trailing SL. RealisedGains Investing 17 June 2023 00:02 UTC+08:00 Spot buys are actually even better at 24. 8k! Bought a full BTC already 👌🏼 Unknown 17 June 2023 00:06 UTC+08:00 Probably closing some of the levered positions at 26. 1-26. 5k, with a trailing SL & leaving the spot to run 🤷🏻‍♂️ Just chilling, not really over-leveragingFYI it is very easy to post BS screenshots with a tiny size and high leverage, and hold for eternity so if you see people do that online, take with a pinch of salt. I cannot get perfect entries cause I am running this account on a copy trader function - I am not allowed to do limit orders and OCO, FOK orders which messes up my strategy. Might turn it off soon! Unknown 17 June 2023 00:09 UTC+08:00 As you can see with the leverage, it went up 2x, and the average price went down. That's cause I added more on the dip. If you want to larp online as a FURU/GURU you can just take $100 put it on 125x Leverage, and this ROI will be 200%, don't get fooled by stupid ROI screenshots. Same thing can be done with short-dated options. RealisedGains Investing RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 01:58 UTC+08:00 26. 2k! Unknown RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 01:59 UTC+08:00 Trailing SL time : ) Unknown RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 01:59 UTC+08:00 Aiming for 26. 5k now! Unknown RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 02:03 UTC+08:00 Unfortunately, I just started on this copy trading function so the ROI should actually have been higher. I am also trading very conservatively tbh. Took me awhile to get used to it!I'll think about optimising soon. Unknown RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 02:05 UTC+08:00 I started this futures account about a month ago with 1k USD, now at 4. 5k USD already. I am employing extremely little leverage though, as I mentioned a month ago, I prefer to chill. Unknown RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 02:07 UTC+08:00 I will probably withdraw from this copy trading function eventually because(1) I don't like taking responsibility over people's trades. (2) I have my name on the line. (3) Lacks my Stop Limit/Trailing Stop/OCO/FOK trading functions. (4) I am just chill trading now. Unknown RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 02:10 UTC+08:00 Good close on the $BNB shorts as well! I will probably trade more aggressively after I am back on vacation and optimise my strategies. It is very easy to feel the need to overleverage but what if you're wrong? That's why we always still stick with the 1-2% rule, positive expectancy & have proper risk management. Something I actually started practising this year. Working on a comprehensive video guide on this 🫡Have a good weekend 👌🏼 Unknown RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 02:14 UTC+08:00 This could potentially be a good bottom on $BTC long-term if Binance holds up and Regulatory crackdowns stop. Think we test highs again eventually! Unknown RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 02:16 UTC+08:00 Holding $BTC spot till 27. 2-27. 5k then re-assessing there. Unknown RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 02:27 UTC+08:00 Gave the numbers more than a month ago! I called the bottom on Gold (1935), Bitcoin (24. 8), and VIX (14). All 3!The one thing I did not expect was $VIX to be so manipulated. Historically, VIX has been used by traders to hedge portfolio positions. This is my first time in my 7 years of trading (and apparently more) that VIX has gone down with SPY going up, and vice versa. I have a theory on this that this is due to the introduction of 0DTEs, which mess up the put call parity, as well as the volatility. Hence, making this run-up on equities both overextended and so beyond the Bollingers, and other extension models. Yes, you can argue with me "it's AI", I think this is purely manipulation where funds keep prices up while buying 0DTEs, crushing volatility while keeping up. It WILL eventually rug. However, I do not have information on what funds are doing, all I know is that when they pull the plug - it's gonna be a nasty drop. RealisedGains Investing RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 14:38 UTC+08:00 26. 7k now : ) Unknown RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 14:51 UTC+08:00 I have closed levered long positions because of the copy trading functionality unfortunately. Majority of my holdings are in spot with SL so still delta positive and fine! Will update you guys when I figure out another way to tune the API. RealisedGains Investing 20 June 2023 08:39 UTC+08:00 We're almost getting to 27k! Tightening my SLs here✌🏻 RealisedGains Investing 21 June 2023 00:58 UTC+08:00 There we go! At 27. 4k now! Will tighten and probably TP here ✌🏼 Unknown 21 June 2023 00:59 UTC+08:00 Long term I think 35k is possible ✌🏼 Only closing levered positions! Unknown 21 June 2023 01:08 UTC+08:00 Quick assessment of markets;$BTC still conservatively bullish here. I believe we range a bit so I am cutting my levered holdings due to funding and I am holding my spot. $QQQ to me still topped out & overextended for this year & breadth is still horendous. I expect liquidity to drain from TGA and spread into smallers caps - looking at Dow Jones & Russell to reallocate my portfolio later on these few months. My long dated bear spreads are barely just positive already. Also why I chose to do bear spreads instead of direct puts if you saw above. This strategy alone saved my portfolio given how crazy this tech runup has been. $XAU, gold in mild bearish trend but I don't believe we break much lower, 1800-1870 is a huge demand zone and inflation is still high like it or not ✌🏼 Unknown 21 June 2023 01:11 UTC+08:00 Tighten SL for $BTC longs once we break 27. 5k, final target 27. 8k. Closing off all levered positions before Powell speaks tomorrow. Unknown 21 June 2023 01:14 UTC+08:00 I still don't think there's enough accumulation just yet for the impulse wave 3 on $BTC. It might take awhile and we likely chop here a couple weeks but I still believe we retest 30k and break through it the next time round so holding spot. As you can see above, I told you I would not buy alts or eth even earlier cause the BTC dominance is gaining strength, far superior and logical for me to trade. RealisedGains Investing 21 June 2023 02:26 UTC+08:00 only considering shorting above 34k, $BTC still moving! RealisedGains Investing RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 15:28 UTC+08:00 Already closed leveraged positions on $BTC as I said due to the copy trading API, still on 1 BTC spot bought from 24. 8k, I sell only closer to red region. Will short at 34-36k. Still think I am a better crypto trader compared to equities which is why I am still sticking to spreads for options at the moment 👌🏼 Still learning! RealisedGains Investing 22 June 2023 00:40 UTC+08:00 We are reaching 31k! I should have bought more 😂 Watch the previous chart, think we slow down at 32. 5k and heavy overhead resistance at 34-36k. For now I am chill & happy! RealisedGains Investing 22 June 2023 11:08 UTC+08:00 I have been saying $BTC bullish, $SPY/$QQQ down, $XAU gold still neutral bearish since last few weeks. All perfect calls, timing wise almost to the dollar 🫡When you take overleveraged positions, you are leveraging not just the position, but your emotions. When you increase your margin, it also decreases your margin of error. A lot of the ability to hold trades, is not just conviction, but proper sizing & risk management. I try to get perfect entries as a way of lowering my pain tolerated, but I am always prepared for pain in a trade. Everything is calculated!Trades taken/Positions Update:$BTC spot from 24. 8k I am holding till 32. 5k-34k, possibly flipping bearish after 34k. Bear Call/Put Spreads on $QQQ from 360 finally turning green. One of my hardest bearish positions but time is on my favour with spreads. Gold $XAU at 1935 bought, 1982 sold. Did not short, waiting for longs at 1870-1890 region I mentioned. Probably tests the demand zone and the 200 EMA. Wait for the entries/Opportunities, don't blindly chase. Same with life & relationships. For previous analysis use the search bar on the counter $BTC $QQQ $SPY $XAU. I seldom trade anything else with size. RealisedGains Investing 22 June 2023 18:41 UTC+08:00 Ley's see how $QQQ holds up on these supports! I believe we still downside risks. Was so overbought for so long!I am still looking at 332-338 for longs. Will close my bearish spreads around there 👌🏼 RealisedGains Investing 23 June 2023 03:24 UTC+08:00 Watching Gold $XAU here, as I said we will break downwards into 1900 eventually. As always we wait for the move, we don't chase 👌🏼 RealisedGains Investing 23 June 2023 21:44 UTC+08:00 Possible sweep to the lows at B. Gave my price targets earlier last month - looking at 405-410 approximately for $SPY to buy-in. Still in my bearish spreads for $QQQ $SPY. I will buy into Dow Jones & Russell at the respective lows probably. If B does not hold, look out for the green area. Either way, I still think USD depreciates and this allows equities to rally later on into the end of 2023 and start of 2024! Unknown 23 June 2023 21:45 UTC+08:00 Numbers are here, for now we will be patient til CPI data comes in next tuesday! RealisedGains Investing 4 July 2023 00:52 UTC+08:00 Still holding till around 34k region for $BTC 👌🏼 Not trading too much at the moment as I am busy so just holding my spot. Think it is ultimately the right play as well! If we overextend above 35k I will look to short!Same chart. Equities are now trickling down into smaller caps as I said, I entered into Dow Jones/Russ already! RealisedGains Investing RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 23:04 UTC+08:00 Gold bouncing nicely off the 1890 200EMA (Gave this region since last month above!) - at least till 1940 off from here then if we blast through, as I believe we should, the lows are in. I still see gold at ATH by next year, but this is probably the slowest moving asset without leverage. As of now, I am accumulating both gold, bitcoin and small cap etfs. Going to be a largely muted week with today being the US holiday. Thursday has more high impact news with unemployment claims, ISM & FOMC Minutes but I doubt this is a narrative changing week. Cautiously Bullish still! RealisedGains Investing 14 July 2023 00:03 UTC+08:00 Gold $XAU currently at 1956! I see this back above 2010 and I will definitely take some profits there. Still holding my $BTC from 24. 8k, targetting 34-36k and the $BABA $RUM $RUT I bought last month. Fully allocated. Selling Covered Calls only. This whole rally across all markets of course comes at a cost of a weakening dollar $DXY. Still see upside! especially with Crypto, Gold. RealisedGains Investing 3 August 2023 13:35 UTC+08:00 With the US Credit Ratings Drop, logically, this should weaken the dollar. However, I believe the market doesn't believe in a default possibility either way. With dollar strengthening, I still see continuation on this momentarily downtrend across the board. Good time to take profit on the longs last month for equities. (Mid-term Outlook: $DXY strengthen, Equities weaken, Crypto flat. )Counters to look out for:$TSLA at 220-225 good for longs on the gap fill down. (Current: 255)$XAU support at 1905-1920 to retest the trendline during the US Session. Trade on XM here for $500 Deposit Extra: XM National Day Promo RealisedGains Investing 3 August 2023 13:53 UTC+08:00 While the US Debt Ratings Downgrade is concerning, other indicators are still pointing towards a strong economy. This weeks PMI and Jobs Report numbers will be indicative of that and slow down this drop in my opinion. However, we're coming into the weaker months of the year based on seasonality, I expect a short-lived downtrend the next couple of months. I believe tech ($TSLA, $NVDA) is grossly overvalued right now, but I don't want to short against irrationality. Hence, I will just be trading gold $XAU down to 1905-1920. I believe crypto market cap in general will be muted and ranging, but alts will go down more, and I can see $ETH going down to 1720-1730 support. Trade on XM here for $500 Deposit Extra: XM National Day Promo RealisedGains Investing 4 August 2023 21:08 UTC+08:00 Still in my $BTC & $BABA I bought at 24. 8k and $84 respectively. I think these 2 counters are more impervious to US policy changes as Crypto is more global and Alibaba is more tied to HK/CN. Holding it out awhile more but cautious. I have already cut all my US Tech except a few smaller holdings in Rumble, etc. If it runs it runs, but we're coming into weaker months & headwinds now! RealisedGains Investing 7 August 2023 12:42 UTC+08:00 Still in $BABA from $83 here - my largest holdings currently. Waiting for Thursday's earning to decide what I do with this. If we get a good report I will probably sell some more on the news. As usual, still selling covered calls. Markets are ranged bound recently which makes it better for long condor options strategy. I am still biased short on equities again but we have very weak data till Thursday so I expect a choppy muted week. RealisedGains Investing 9 August 2023 01:07 UTC+08:00 Getting to our support region for $XAU at 1905-1920. $TSLA still has some ways left to go, but I still think we need to cool off. I will go heavier on longs than shorts cause we're still in a bull market atm. Small size short on equities as of now. RealisedGains Investing 14 August 2023 02:54 UTC+08:00 $XAU getting very close to 1905 as well as $TSLA at 220 region. Numbers to look out for next week! Watch the reaction off those areas, I am expecting a bounce there depending on data next week!Likely Thursday again with the FOMC Meeting Minutes ✌🏼 RealisedGains Investing 14 August 2023 15:13 UTC+08:00 As stated above, I gave my thesis as to why I saw dollar strengthening - allowing for a further sustained downtrend on equities and gold. Bitcoin still holding up relatively stable but I think we get a small drop there too. I believe this is a temporary dip only though. Will be looking into getting back in longs soon!Still looking at the same regions first. $XAU 1905$TSLA 220-225For Bitcoin if 29. 1k does not hold, we are looking at possibly 26. 4-26. 6k, that would be a great region to re-enter long-term in my opinion. There is also a low-volume node below for gold so i'm waiting for guidance on dollar strength before executing. Trade on XM here for $500 Deposit Extra: XM August Promo Unknown 14 August 2023 15:14 UTC+08:00 1850-1890 is a great point to start laddering into the $RUT (Russell 2000) for long-term investing. I believe the wider breadth might reduce your down-side risk. However, personally right now I am on a small short on equities but I am selling Cash-covered puts on $SPY for $420-425 for about $2 credit for 15th September for the long-side. Not effectively delta neutral but decay is in my favour. Credit taking however is not exceptionally great here due to Implied Volatility not being high. Rudimentarily this means we're not in an exceptionally volatile environment, i. e. there is some market indecision. Hence, premiums and a credit-taking strategy is not exceptionally favourable here. Trade on XM here for $500 Deposit Extra: XM August Promo RealisedGains Investing 14 August 2023 22:12 UTC+08:00 We're at 1905 on gold $XAU already! Still holding down the small short. I actually don't see this demand zone holding now. PA currently strongly bearish. I am not longing here yet 👌🏼 RealisedGains Investing 16 August 2023 20:26 UTC+08:00 Everything is pretty bearish. As I said, I am holding all shorts I opened, not closing yet. Only trailing stop losses. A lot of leveraged longs need to be flushed first. Across the board on $BTC, $SPY, $TSLA, $QQQ & $XAU. Those support levels I think will only provide temporary support. Not worth closing too fast in my opinion. Hard to time and get a better short entry, easier to hold!Thursday's Meeting Minutes will be crucial! RealisedGains Investing RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 04:46 UTC+08:00 Gold $XAU looks to be in a high time frame guppy flip already. I believe with the FEDs starting to posit for potential rate hikes. This is very bullish for the dollar. As such, logically equities and gold should fall. However, I think equities will be a bit stickier as we are indeed in a better economic macro environment. Will start doing more analysis in the coming week!As of now, I stand by the statement, previous support levels are only temporary support. I believe we drop further across the board 👍🏻 Unknown RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 04:48 UTC+08:00 Also, out of $BTC & $BABA already forgot to add. However, you can see I was warning of this reversal already! Unknown RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 04:49 UTC+08:00 $RUT & $SPY at these values are still a watch. I am going to rebuy early because I don't like to hold so little. RealisedGains Investing RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 21:56 UTC+08:00 Waiting for $SPY 420-425, still holding all shorts tonight! Can sell covered puts to hedge the short positions already soon. RealisedGains Investing 18 August 2023 09:54 UTC+08:00 WE GOT OUR 26. 4k! on $BTC 😌Called it once again! Unknown 18 August 2023 10:01 UTC+08:00 Probably re-adding back very soon since these are low enough for me. I try to snipe entries sure, but for long-term holds I enter a bit earlier since I am using profits to buy anyway. Unknown 18 August 2023 10:04 UTC+08:00 Although I did say I wanted 34k initially, you can tell my rhetoric changed once the US Credit Ratings and FOMC came about. As usual, as much as TA (Technical Analysis) can be predictive, we are still subservient and reliant to FA (Financial Analysis). In trading, you must be fluid and willing to change on a dime. Besides, I was just holding a long and closing upon news before flipping short. I wasn't technically on the wrong side of the market!Trade on XM here for $500 Deposit Extra: XM August Promo Unknown 18 August 2023 10:08 UTC+08:00 This telegram trading channel is growing a little too slow for me, perhaps due to my lack of marketing efforts and also I make nothing from sharing my ideas since I neither sell a course or charge for anything. - As of now it's more of a pet project I have been doing for 3 years already. I will take a short hiatus to look to scale some of these up. In actuality, it is not just the ideas that makes the trade. Rather there is still execution, understanding of the different derivative platforms and knowing when to pull the trigger/cut the trade. Will spend the weekend thinking how to optimise the sharings and come back next week! RealisedGains Investing RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 18:18 UTC+08:00 I'll let you guys know when I am entering. Likely next week. I am not going to time the bottom, but I want a clear reversal signal and my indicators are not confluencing just yet! RealisedGains Investing 30 August 2023 03:20 UTC+08:00 Hope you guys added at 26. 4k! All were great points for adding $TSLA at 220, RUT at 1850, $XAU at 1905. This should hold up for awhile. I still believe we get chop around this region till there is some guidance - especially with September Seasonality Lows. One thing to note is that the S&P has still incredibly narrow breadth, propped up by this AI rhetoric as Treasury yields drop on soft economic data, we are still IN a recession based off the yield curve but I think we can avoid a hard landing now. In his Jackson Hole Speech Powell posited that: "We are prepared to raise rates further if appropriate, will proceed carefully"Source: Hawkish Jackson Hole SpeechTrade with me on XM: https://www. xm. com/gw. php?gid=219919 RealisedGains Investing 30 August 2023 03:36 UTC+08:00 Watch 1959 on $XAU Gold & 29. 1 - 29. 4k on $BTC . Probably see some slow continuation here before we drop backdown - this is just a bearish retest. I don't see any more major move to the upside in the next 1-2 months frankly. Still think that last US Credit Ratings drop was a pivotal point that we are going into some hawkish/headwind months. The fact that jolts jobs data (lowest job opening since Sept 2021) and consumer confidence just fell so much implies that the economy is not that strong, you also have to consider the lag effect. Expect the usual red september. 🩸I believe sometime next year is when you want to start loading up for the next bull run but no point rushing in now. Source: US Labor Markets Losing SteamTrade with me XM: https://www. xm. com/gw. php?gid=219919 RealisedGains Investing 30 August 2023 13:40 UTC+08:00 As I mentioned, I think the US Credit Ratings Drop, followed by the Jackson Hole speech is indicative of the short-term Hawkish environment. Cooling cursory inflation data negates the need for rate hikes, but this weakening jobs data could posit a 2nd round of hikes. Bitcoin & Gold are highly sensitive to rising US Interest Rates, the latter more specifically, as these increase the opportunity cost of holding - why speculate on gold when you can get safe and high return from higher yields from higher rates. These are very speculative. However, I can see $XAU, gold dropping slowly to at least 1850 (Possible HTF Pennant). Similarly with $BTC, Bitcoin, a full extension drop will bring us to 23. 9 - 21. 2k (Possible HTF Swing Failure Bottom). I am cautiously bearish. With these, we also have to consider the contagion effect of the re-emerging Evergrande Crisis; accounting for 30% of Chinese GDP, a default would possibly require a Chinese Government Bailout. Source: China Evergrande Crisis Part 2 Unknown 30 August 2023 13:40 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 30 August 2023 21:59 UTC+08:00 As I said earlier today! Gold moving up from 1936 to 1959. Still watching that point! Easy trend day. Still believe this is a bearish retest. RealisedGains Investing 1 September 2023 14:40 UTC+08:00 Still bearish on $BTC and $XAU - as I said, just a bearish retest!That Bitcoin rejection was way faster than I thought, but I think gold's drop will be much slower. If we get to those levels - and you should be making money if you have been following - you should be buying back heavily with those profits. That's what I will be doing! Those levels are crucial to watch. For now, just holding shorts down. RealisedGains Investing 12 September 2023 00:29 UTC+08:00 Watch 21. 2-23. 9k on $BTC for longs, I think the FTX 13th September Assets sold by liquidators will be significant to pull liquidity out of the market as a whole. It is still going to take awhile for confidence and new money to come back into the system. I do believe we see the start of a run next year just based off cycles. I will be loading up. RealisedGains Investing 12 September 2023 22:15 UTC+08:00 I would be looking for CPI and FOMC to fade the news. Think the rate hike is already priced in, dollar should slow down it's strength and gold will rally soon. Anything under 1900 and around here is getting to a triple test of this demand zone for $XAU & should see some relief up. RealisedGains Investing 13 September 2023 21:51 UTC+08:00 CPI printed hotter than expected, raising rate hike expectations for November. This is significant as many expected a cool print given how long rates have been this high. Markets will probably cool off into September's FOMC meeting which should not be a rate hike still. Unknown 13 September 2023 21:51 UTC+08:00 Unknown 13 September 2023 22:05 UTC+08:00 Looking at a short-term pullback and a swing failure top to bring us down to B. I believe 429 - 436 should be the real demand zone for $SPY. I still believe it's a moderately bullish market in the mid term as I have come to accept J Powell can't risk collapsing the stock market. Unless we get a Debt Crisis or the Real Estate Market Imploding we should slowly chop up around November-December. RealisedGains Investing 15 September 2023 21:38 UTC+08:00 If we get to those demand zones on $SPY I will close and flip long. Just using basic 1:2 RR Risk Management. Risking 1% of Portfolio on this! I just think we are due for a pullback on equities still. Happy F1 Weekend! 🏎️ RealisedGains Investing 15 September 2023 22:59 UTC+08:00 There we go 👌🏼 As usual! And gold up too 🤷🏼‍♂️ Called it! RealisedGains Investing 16 September 2023 00:52 UTC+08:00 Just to be clear I think dollar strengthens since inflation is hot and we are going to get more rate hikes through till the end of the year. Funds should start going risk off as they repo their portfolio and take profits from all the tech gains (Just like Jensen Huang). Currently - BTC and Equities still bearish, Bullish gold in the short term. Long run, I think everything still goes up because the inflation machine is still strong and everything is going to be propped up. Unknown 16 September 2023 01:07 UTC+08:00 I will put a very tight trailing SL for $SPY at 441. 8 once we break under 440. 8. If we break this demand zone convincingly we should get to 437/438 or even lower. However, I believe we are in a bull market still. This move is just flushing out longs/calls, it can overextend down but that dip is still for buying! RealisedGains Investing 19 September 2023 02:58 UTC+08:00 Gold ($XAU) likely see resistance at 1939 - 1941. This is a shorter-term view of the previous attached Gold Chart. I see support on $SPY at 440-441 respectively. Occasionally Gold and SPY will move inversely if it is a risk on/risk off scenario, but they can also move correspondingly if its a major dollar movement since it's the underlying currency they are both pegged too. It's important to ignore the actual FOMC hike numbers unless they're out of expectations, as usual, the guidance will be more important, and i speculate that there will still be rate hikes proposed in November. Leaning on more upside for $XAU and slightly more downside for $SPY. (Trade with me here on XM) RealisedGains Investing 19 September 2023 22:12 UTC+08:00 SL shifted to TP. We hit our target on the $SPY short, taking some profits here! 1 more win 🥳 Unknown 19 September 2023 22:19 UTC+08:00 ~600k Short. Closing off here to downsize and take profits but holding about 100k-200k of shorts down. Unknown 19 September 2023 22:20 UTC+08:00 Taking profits now 👍🏻 Unknown 19 September 2023 22:22 UTC+08:00 Already said here 441. 5 to 440. 8, trailing SL in TP - i am taking profits on majority & leaving 20% to TP2. This is my own style of risk management. I am not charging anything so I am just doing my own style, not advocating for it! Unknown 19 September 2023 22:25 UTC+08:00 Entries weren't great, 447 on average. I suffered probably unrealised 2k of losses. Took 4k of profits for this trade. 1:2 RR. Should have timed it better and fade the CPI more. . . But I drew this move since last week & also correctly assessed the $BTC & $XAU moves ✌🏼 Up on those too on my CFD account. Unknown 19 September 2023 22:36 UTC+08:00 We flip longs at B for $SPY if indicators confluence. Still holding 20% shorts down all the way there. I am downsized cause I am not doing trading full-time already and frankly this size makes more sense to me than my old degenerate sizing. Unknown 19 September 2023 22:41 UTC+08:00 Closing more. My orders are literally set and I am just watching Netflix lol 😂 RealisedGains Investing 21 September 2023 00:57 UTC+08:00 good close : ) might re-open shorts later! Unknown 21 September 2023 00:57 UTC+08:00 let's see how FOMC comes out! expecting no rate hikes. . . Powell has go gumption 🤷🏻‍♂️ RealisedGains Investing 21 September 2023 07:53 UTC+08:00 Gettinng our 436 on $SPY! Currently at 437 🫡 Unknown 21 September 2023 07:54 UTC+08:00 Will TP more on market open today ✌🏼 RealisedGains Investing 21 September 2023 18:49 UTC+08:00 Pre-market for $SPY already at 436. I did say this would be a perfect entry, looks to be a liquidation cascade - holding some shorts down to full extension 429 where I might possibly flip long! ✌🏼 Unknown 21 September 2023 18:51 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 22 September 2023 05:34 UTC+08:00 Doing the maths in Optimisation:With my initial 1400 shares of $SPY short = 625k USD short. I held only 200 shares down till here. Closing all now in after markets! I should better optimise my strategy but profits and profits 🤷🏻‍♂️Ideally, it was because I had different probabilities for each outcome and full extension while a possibility, was lower ,so I allocated a smaller % close here. Old me might have traded this differently. I should have also looked at the put-call ratios and liquidation zones to expect this cascade. RealisedGains Investing 22 September 2023 06:04 UTC+08:00 I am closing and considering longs maybe next week! I will rechart this in November but i still believe this dip is for buying ✌🏼Just remember :1. Higher Treasury yields alone can't crash the market unless the Corp bonds and FX market explode. 2. This capitulation in long Treasuries means that if the yields start to come back down soon, stocks will rally. 3. The time for the real crash is NOT now. The bond markets tell the real story! RealisedGains Investing 22 September 2023 08:46 UTC+08:00 Got our gold move to 1940s to tap out that supply zone! Trend down now to the larger chart. Will go live tonight with an analysis! Unknown 22 September 2023 08:48 UTC+08:00 Larger timeframe I am still looking at this for $BTC and $XAU. I might have to rechart a bit due to FA changes and Crypto is technically in a stronger demand zone than equities or commodities. RealisedGains Investing 22 September 2023 10:49 UTC+08:00 Let's see if I get the C wave on $SPY right now. . . What's going to happen to stocks when the yields start to drop? 🚀 up for a while till the end of the year, but the investors will soon find out 'why' the yields are dropping. As I said, bond markets tell the real story! RealisedGains Investing 26 September 2023 20:59 UTC+08:00 Probably flipping longs sometime this week. Under 429 on $SPY was my target since 447 and is sufficiently low enough for a bounce on this demand zone ✌🏼 Using profits to buffer this dip buy! RealisedGains Investing 28 September 2023 01:37 UTC+08:00 Getting our $XAU move to 1843 at (3) as well as our $BTC move to (C) to 18. 9 - 21k. Same as our $SPY downward move. I think $SPY leads the bounce first, followed by $XAU. $BTC needs more of an impetus for a drop! So far looks like another 3/3. I have not bought back in & I have already closed 90% of my shorts. I am not trading as speculatively these days but I think my analysis is still there! Trade with me on XM! RealisedGains Investing 10 October 2023 11:33 UTC+08:00 Defence Stocks in a New World OrderIf you scroll through my past postings, you guys will realise I have been an advocate for defence stocks like LMT over the last 2 years. This is up 7% today and steadily rising since Covid. In Ray Dalio's Theories on the Changing World Theory - we often see that world powers dominance are in a cyclical nature. Hyperinflation, Dollar Milkshake Theory, Petrodollar all contribute to how the US weaponises their dollar. In short, it buys oil from the Saudi's essentially for free through incessant printing of USD. At the same time, supplying weapons to the Middle East & Ukraine, 'profiting' from conflict. Even when we eventually de-dollar, or any black swan events happens, one thing is for certain, the US will not go down without a fight. When Russia invaded Ukraine, the stock jumped ~30% in 3 days. Since the start of 2022, $LMT is up ~25% as geopolitical tensions have escalated globally. Trade with me on XM Unknown 10 October 2023 11:33 UTC+08:00 Unknown 10 October 2023 11:46 UTC+08:00 Equities: I have already bought my $SPY from 425 - 429. Targeting my Wave C. Also have cash covered puts that did not exercise & are in profits. Same points for my Russ2000, I believe even if we bounce Small Caps have a larger breadth lag & better R:R. Trade with me on XM RealisedGains Investing 3 November 2023 16:52 UTC+08:00 I am still holding onto my $SPY, fully allocated chart still in play. I believe we rally into the new year given this FED pause. No change in thesis unless something breaks! RealisedGains Investing 3 November 2023 16:52 UTC+08:00 To Hike or not to hike?Currently, Markets are priced for no change in rates with the probability at 95%. Once again, the guidance thereafter is more important. I believe that the FEDs cannot afford to cut rates as inflation as I have said for the whole year - is too sticky and inaccurately reported. Housing prices still remain high, and this has long term ramifications on Population Data & Long Run Productivity. My rhetoric remains that we have higher for longer and they will only cut if the current rates break something (i. e Banking ystem, Mortgages, etc). I believe we still see another ersatz run-up on equities. TLDR: Given No Hike. Equities rally into the new year. With the possibility of hikes later on. Cuts only if system breaks. Source: FED holding rates at the highXM News Site: Learn on XM RealisedGains Investing 14 November 2023 11:36 UTC+08:00 D1 analysis on EUR/USD. We had a huge contraction in Q3 📉, following the macro bearish trend on EUR/USD. Currently we have been seeing a bullish rally into Q4 but it is likely a retracement into equilibrium prices / premium. We currently have 2 possible scenarios for the rest of the year. Scenario 1: Price continues the bullish rally into equilibrium price level, mitigates the daily supply before continuing the overall bearish trend. Possible catalysts: ECB continues to hike interest rates while the US maintains. Scenario 2: Price consolidates around the 1. 06 region due to uncertainty in the two central banks' monetary policy decisionReact if you'd like to see more analysis!Trade on XM RealisedGains Investing 14 November 2023 22:53 UTC+08:00 Still looking at upside on US Equities & Crypto. Same numbers, chop up till end of the year as stated. Led by a strong tech sector and a weakening USD due to China and Japan dropping US treasuries, swap lines and a moody's downgrade. RealisedGains Investing 14 November 2023 23:16 UTC+08:00 Upside still in play. I expect this to be a big fake out and if interest rates rise high enough next year along with a debt crisis, we start seeing cracks in the real estate market/banking sector. Selling covered calls and hedging along the way up using call ratio back spreads on VIX or SQQQ accordingly because we can't predict for black swan events. VIX got a bit destroyed by 0dte so I am looking at different ways to hedge according to the weighted beta of my portfolio. RealisedGains Investing 18 November 2023 15:23 UTC+08:00 D1 Analysis on EUR/USD. Scenario 1 in play, with price retracing up into the Daily supply zones with worse than expected CPI /PPI /Unemployment claims from the US. We are approaching premium levels as well as the major . 618 - . 782 retracement area. I will be looking for shorts on the lower timeframes when price shows bearish sentiment (e. g 4HR CHoCH/MSS to the downside). For fundamentals next week we have FOMC and Euro PMI so will keep you guys updated! React if you guys want to see more analysis like this one!Trade with me on XM RealisedGains Investing 21 November 2023 01:02 UTC+08:00 Still see upside on US equities as I believe dollar is to weaken and equities chop up towards the end of the year. I think over time the $QQQ rally will slow down and disperse over to the $SPY and $RUT2000. A sustained rally requires breadth. Hence, still in all my positions. Only selling covered calls. This equities run-up in my opinion will come at the cost of the USD strength and $DXY seeing new lows as we see other countries dump more US Debt and Treasuries. Just to consider - we have a Santa Claus rally and have an election year coming up in 2024. This is supported by the recent statements by Dr. Ed Yardeni: “We remain bullish on $SPX, which we expect will consolidate for a few more days before resuming the Santa Claus rally. We are still forecasting 4600 by year-end. A solid break above 4550 gap fill could signal a good start for stocks in 2024. ”Trade with me on XM RealisedGains Investing 21 November 2023 15:22 UTC+08:00 I would be especially cautious with tech as well as $QQQ at these levels. It is heavily skewed with no breadth with the top 7 still leading the indices. Watch NVIDIA's earnings especially closely tomorrow. Generally a rally before earnings smells like exit liquidity for a close reversal soon. 555 for $NVDA is a huge HTF fibo extension and should be respected for resistance if other indicators confluence. My 2 cents ✌🏼 Trade with me on XM RealisedGains Investing 21 November 2023 16:30 UTC+08:00 DXY Daily Chart Pre-FOMC DXY bearish since Q4 and is currently at a D1 demand zone that coincides with the equilibrium level between Q3's range. If the demand zone fails to hold price I expect a continuation of the bearish trend into discount levels at the . 618 - . 782 region, with the 102. 00 psychological level in sights. The bearish dollar this quarter has been fueled by anticipation of rate cuts in the near future as early as Q1 '24. In contrast, XAU/USD is up 10% in the same period. XXX/USD pairs should see a similar bullish rally. Trade with me on XM RealisedGains Investing 24 November 2023 20:56 UTC+08:00 End of week EUR/USDPrice this week pretty much just created a range, with 1. 0965 being the high of the week and 1. 0852 being the low of the week. The bullish trend continues, with the D1 supply and 1. 1000 level in sights. The data from Germany showed that the headline German IFO Business Climate Index improved to 87. 3 in November from 86. 9 in October. The Current Assessment Index edged higher to 89. 4 from 89. 2, while the Expectations Index rose to 85. 2 from 84. 8. Although these figures came in slightly below analysts' estimates, they had virtually no impact on the Euro's valuation. There are still lingering fears of a recession in the Euro zone but the bullish trend continues for now. Trade with me on XM RealisedGains Investing 28 November 2023 10:19 UTC+08:00 I am looking to close off my positions above 465 for $SPY. Selling covered calls to lower my cost average of $SPY from 425. Still holding both Crypto & SPY longs as well as my Dollar Short on currencies. More interested on Powell's Speech on 12am Saturday. This week is likely a non-factor, just chopping and range bound! RealisedGains Investing 28 November 2023 11:31 UTC+08:00 EUR/USD 4H Analysis I still expect bullish momentum to take out the weak high and mitigate the daily supply. We have created a nice amount of liquidity for future shorts. If price shows signs of a bearish reversal in the daily supply I will be looking to target the recent low at 1. 086 which coincides with the equilibrium level on the daily chart. New Home Sales came in lower than expectations for the US, and I forecast that today's US consumer confidence news should be no different. Trade on XM RealisedGains Investing 29 November 2023 13:19 UTC+08:00 EUR/USD 4HR AnalysisAs expected, the bullish rally continued into the daily supply, and the 1. 1000 level was met. We are currently trading in the daily supply zone and we can only look for shorts once price shows bearish confirmations. Other than that longs are still in play, but I will only consider discount regions on the lower timeframes. On the fundamental side of things, the Fed's less hawkish stance continues to support EUR/USD. Fed Governor Christopher Waller mentioned that they may not maintain the high interest rates. Additionally, the decline in US Treasury yields cited as an additional weakening factor for USD. For EU, Spain and Germany are expected to report a slowing in the annual inflation rate. Trade on XM RealisedGains Investing 30 November 2023 20:31 UTC+08:00 EUR/USD 4HR AnalysisPrice has shown its hands ahead of US PCE data, with the 4HR changing to bearish after the daily supply mitigation as anticipated. I will be looking for shorts, once price has retraced into premium levels and filled the imbalance above. Targets for shorts will be the lows at 1. 0852 and 1. 0825. Bearish pressure was fueled by EU's inflation data coming in lower than expected, with ECB rate cut expectations in as well. Trade on XM RealisedGains Investing 2 December 2023 23:17 UTC+08:00 EUR/USD 4HR end-of-week analysisAs expected in our scenarios, price has continued to push lower after the daily supply mitigation, and has taken out one of the lows at 1. 0852. There are 2 scenarios that we could see in the coming week. 1st scenario: Price continues bearish, taking out the second key low at 1. 0825 and fills the imbalance on the 4HR chart. 2nd: scenario: Price retraces back into premium levels to fill the fair value gap above, before continuing the bearish pressure to the 4HR imbalance/demand zone below. On the fundamental side of things, easing inflation numbers fueled speculation that central banks will refrain from hiking rates further. The focus shifts to US NFP data next week. For the EU, the Euro weakened amid rumors suggesting the pause in Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) reinvestments leading to the end of the year due to low liquidity. Financial markets are pricing in a first ECB rate cut in April. Trade on XM RealisedGains Investing 4 December 2023 09:06 UTC+08:00 Still holding on to my spot $BTC Bitcoin from 25k, I will be closing off & very possibly flipping short at 42. 3-42. 8k. High time frame resistance and supply zone. Keeping it simple ✌🏼 RealisedGains Investing 4 December 2023 19:34 UTC+08:00 Well that took a lot shorter than expected to get to 42k! I am going to start selling soon! Already close to a double 🫡 RealisedGains Investing 5 December 2023 09:18 UTC+08:00 Sold 50% at 42. 4k for $BTC as planned. I am less exact with my numbers and I have a greater tolerance of drawdowns these days I am no longer using leverage. I see this as high time frame resistance correcting to 36. 9-37. 1k at least. However I will not short yet as it is still early in the rally and I do not want to directly fight the trend. Unknown 5 December 2023 09:24 UTC+08:00 I believe Equities correcting is a leading indicator for a crypto correction as well. $NVDA already at 455. Even though its an election year I still headwinds and the possibility of blackswan events coming into 2024. Times are still shifty. Only important dates to note are unemployment on 7th/8th December as well as CPI 13/14th December. If I were trying to be exact, I think it's still too early to flip bearish for crypto. Just logical for me to take profits here! RealisedGains Investing 5 December 2023 11:06 UTC+08:00 EUR/USD 4HR analysisPrice took out the second low at 1. 0825 as expected. The 4HR imbalance has yet to be filled. My bias is still short for now. We have EU services PMI later in the day, followed by US JOLTS and ISM services PMI. The data will show us whether EUR/USD will continue the bearish momentum. Trade on XM RealisedGains Investing 6 December 2023 01:19 UTC+08:00 Honestly scary to short this $BTC move 😂 we're getting close to that local top imo. Just hard to predict irrationality. Retail is coming in! (which also mean exit liquidity). I still think we retrace down so wise to take profits here imo. I have already taken half. RealisedGains Investing 7 December 2023 23:48 UTC+08:00 EUR/USD 4HR analysisThe forecasted scenario played out, with price mitigating the 4HR imbalance. With NFP coming up, there are 2 possible scenarios for price. The first scenario, price continues the bearish trend into the 4HR demand. If this happens I will wait for lower time frame confirmations before taking longs. The second scenario, price retraces up into the 1HR supply zone which coincides with the higher timeframe equilibrium levels. From there we could look to take high probability shorts. to target the 4HR demand zone. Trade on XM RealisedGains Investing 8 December 2023 09:18 UTC+08:00 Macro Outlook Update Dec 2024$SPY short from 447 to flip long at 425 September Lows, still targetting 460+ to Take Profit in December Rally. $BTC closed half my positions at 42. 3-42. 8k as mentioned. Lots of late longs piling here and increased OI. I am increasingly cautious given last week's rejection on $XAU. I held long enough so sticking with my opinion to close here. Waiting for the FOMC guidance to make a decision. I think we get a muted santa claus rally since everything has already been priced in and rallied already. Still see USD tanking in 2024 due to countries dumping treasuries and easing FED conditions. RealisedGains Investing 9 December 2023 03:17 UTC+08:00 Weekly Trading Recap:$XAU is breaking down after NFP, I am probably going to flip long at the 0. 5 retracement below 1980. Unemployment rate is lower than expected at 3. 7. Generally, we want unemployment to rise to cool off inflation. Equity markets reacted positively to this news and I am closing off my $SPY longs VERY soon, we are getting to 460 now. Selling very tight calls, if I get assigned I will just close and buy back cheaper after CPI/FOMC next week!Not selling anymore of my $BTC. I generally only trade these 3 counters the most $SPY, $XAU, $BTC just for convenience and familiarity. I still dabble in some currencies and alts. RealisedGains Investing 9 December 2023 08:46 UTC+08:00 EUR/USD 4HR analysisPrice continued to push lower after better than expected NFP and unemployment rate numbers. Price has yet to mitigate the 4HR demand, but I still expect the bearish pressure to continue. Next week's central bank interest rate decisions, CPI and PPI will determine the bias for the rest of the year. I still expect a retracement to the upside to sweep liquidity before continuing to the downside. Trade on XM RealisedGains Investing 11 December 2023 16:29 UTC+08:00 4HR EUR/USD analysisWe have US CPI/PPI as well as interest rate decisions this week. For the EU we have ECB interest rate decisions as well. Expect huge volatility for the week. I still expect price to continue bearish into the 4HR demand at 1. 0700. After the 4HR demand mitigation we have to wait for the release of the interest rates. Personally I feel that both the Fed and ECB will maintain their interest rates so it will be up to CPI/PPI data to be the catalyst for the rest of the week's movement. Trade on XM RealisedGains Investing 11 December 2023 17:14 UTC+08:00 We got our 460 on $SPY and our retracement to 41k on $BTC. Starting to sell off $SPY now. Crypto is leading. I think the recent banking credit sell-off is mildly concerning. dyor ✌🏼 RealisedGains Investing 11 December 2023 17:59 UTC+08:00 Gold $XAU breaking down as well as dollar sees some relief. Under 1980 if under support indicators confluence it's a decent buy for a bounce. RealisedGains Investing 12 December 2023 00:31 UTC+08:00 We're at 1980 at $XAU gold now & 41k for $BTC. Good to reload on gold. I expect this to bounce coming into FOMC. I think $BTC can drop further to the 36. 9-37. 1k region. Largely dependent on the FOMC & CPI data this week! RealisedGains Investing 12 December 2023 03:39 UTC+08:00 $BTC breaking under 40k now & $XAU under 1980. Love to see it! When I wrote this it was still 43k and 2010 respectively! I think Gold bounces before Crypto! RealisedGains Investing 13 December 2023 22:59 UTC+08:00 Pre-FOMC 4HR EUR/USD analysisPrice has recently retraced up, but I believe it was just a sweep of liquidity. As of now, we are in a range, and FOMC will determine the bias for the rest of the week. We have a weak low, and if price continues the bearish sentiment, we could see the low taken out and a mitigation of the 4HR demand. I would wait for the recent swing high to be broken before changing my bias to bullish. If price creates a 4HR shift, we can expect a continuation into the 4HR imbalance above. Trade on XM RealisedGains Investing 16 December 2023 17:15 UTC+08:00 EUR/USD 4HR Weekly RecapThis week we had a ton of news, with US CPI inflation data at 3. 1%, down 0. 1% from 3. 2% previously. PPI data didn't really affect the markets. US and ECB both released their interest rate decisions this week, with both central banks maintaining their interest rates at 5. 5% and 4. 5% respectively. On the technical side of things, The 4HR has shifted to bullish, and created a huge imbalance on the 4HR as well as leaving equal highs above to target. I will be waiting for the imbalance to be filled, before looking to continue the bullish continuation to target the weak highs at 1. 1000Trade on XM RealisedGains Investing 20 December 2023 13:19 UTC+08:00 EUR/USD 4HR analysisPrice has continued the bullish rally since FOMC last week. We have 2 possible scenarios for the rest of the week. First scenario, price continues the bullish momentum and takes out the weak high and swing high point for a deeper mitigation of the daily supply. Second scenario, Price retraces down and fills the 4HR imbalance below, before continuing to the upside. On the lower timeframes I expect a retracement into discount price levels, before looking to take longs targeting the weak highTrade on XM RealisedGains Investing 21 December 2023 06:24 UTC+08:00 Likely looking at a potential first meaningful pullback at (C) for $SPY from 475-485. Look for $SPY shorts here at break of previous SPY ATH. As Referenced from SPY July 2023 Trading PlanWe got our A-B-C move, now we look for D. Have to still validate the Elliot Waves using Fibonacci Ratios and Stochastic Oscillators. Wave 2 and Wave 4 will alternate. If wave 2 is a sharp correction, Wave 4 is a flat correction and vice versa. Since we got a relatively sharp correction for Wave 2, I presume this will be a flatter one. RealisedGains Investing 21 December 2023 21:05 UTC+08:00 EUR/USD 4HR analysisPrice is still in this range, with the weak high yet to be mitigated. We also have equal highs currently and I expect the bullish momentum to continue until 1. 100After price takes out those highs, we could look for shorts down to target the lows below as well as the 4HR imbalanceWe have US GDP Q/Q and unemployment claims released later today. I anticipate numbers to be worse than expected. Trade on XM RealisedGains Investing 22 December 2023 20:28 UTC+08:00 EUR/USD 4HR AnalysisThe Euro continued the bullish rally after yesterdays' US GDP and manufacturing data coming in worse than expected. As anticipated in our scenarios price has taken out the key level at 1. 100. There are 2 possible scenarios as of now. First scenario is that if price retraces down into discount levels and the 4HR imbalance, we could look for longs targeting the highs at 1. 106. The second scenario is that if price creates a reversal on the lower timeframes, we could look for shorts to target liquidity at the lows near the equilibrium level at 1. 093. Trade on XM RealisedGains Investing 23 December 2023 16:47 UTC+08:00 EUR/USD 4HR weekly recapTechnicalsPrice was bullish the whole week. As expected we had the 4HR weak high and swing high taken out. We have also have liquidity building for future shorts. The 4HR imbalance from last week has yet to be filled. Volume was much lower compared to last week. FundamentalsMost of the volume this week came in after US GDP and unemployment claims came out on Thursday, followed my US Core PCE inflation data on Friday. Both numbers came in worse than expected, leading to bearish sentiment for USD. Trade on XM RealisedGains Investing 26 December 2023 21:46 UTC+08:00 EUR/USD 4HR AnalysisPrice is slowing down, and currently consolidating in a range. On the 1HR chart, we identified a weak low and if price breaks it we could see the retracement down into the 4HR imbalance below. If price breaks the high at 1. 0400, then the trend remains bullish. Trade on XM Unknown 26 December 2023 21:46 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 28 December 2023 18:22 UTC+08:00 EUR/USD 4HR AnalysisPrice continued the bullish trend and mitigated the daily supply. If we see a strong reversal here we could take shorts to target the 4HR imbalance below. Otherwise if price closes above the daily supply we could see a continuation of the overall bullish trend. The 4HR imbalance is also in the 0. 618 and 0. 782 discount region so a retracement to that area is ideal. Trade on XM RealisedGains Investing 29 December 2023 12:38 UTC+08:00 EUR/USD 4HR/1HR AnalysisPrice has rejected off the 4HR supply zone with a strong engulfing candle. With lower timeframe confirmations I expect a retracement down to the 4HR imbalance/demand zone 1. 097On the 1HR we have a bearish shift in structure. We have a 1HR supply zone in premium where we can look for shorts to target the imbalance below. Trade on XM Unknown 29 December 2023 12:38 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 2 January 2024 20:22 UTC+08:00 EURUSD 4HR analysisPrice rejected off the 4HR supply and retraced back down into the 4HR imbalance as anticipated previously. If price shows signs of a reversal on the 1HR/15m we could look for longs. Other wise if price continues the bearish trend and breaks below the 4HR demand, we could see the next checkpoint at the 4HR imbalance below around the 1. 084 region. We also have liquidity for the move as well. On the fundamental side of things, we have US Job Openings and ISM manufacturing numbers tomorrow, so keep that in mind. Trade on XM RealisedGains Investing 4 January 2024 01:35 UTC+08:00 I have flipped bearish on Equities from $SPY at 475. Looking at tentatively 458 for now. ISM manufacturing PMI just came in at 47. 4, above consensus of 47. 2. But still in contraction territory. Forget the plunge in quits: hiring was absolutely obliterated in November, and is now far below pre-covid levels. We have FOMC Meeting Minutes in 2 hours!We are seeing hiring freezes across now, I think even in Singapore. RealisedGains Investing 4 January 2024 12:18 UTC+08:00 EUR/USD 4HR analysisPrice continued the bearish trend and flipped the 4HR demand zone. We can expect the 4HR imbalance to be mitgated. On the lower timeframes, we could see a retracement up into the 4HR demand level at 1. 095 before a continuation to the downside. Trade on XM RealisedGains Investing 7 January 2024 17:02 UTC+08:00 EURUSD 4HR RecapFor this week EURUSD was bearish after a mitigation of the 4HR supply zone. In our forecasts we expected the lows at 1. 0900 to be swept and a mitigation of the 4HR imbalance below at 1. 082 - 1. 085. We pretty much consolidated above the 4HR imbalance but swept liquidity and looking to mitigate the 4HR supply at 1. 100The second scenario for next week is that price continues bearish and mitigates the 4HR imbalance along with CPI/PPI news. Trade on XM RealisedGains Investing 10 January 2024 10:59 UTC+08:00 EUR/USD 1HR analysisEUR/USD has still been ranging inside of friday's NFP range. On the 1HR chart, we can see that price has retraced down into discount levels and reversed inside the 0. 618-0. 782 region. If we have lower timeframe bullish confirmations, we could see a mitigation of the most recent swing high at 1. 0979. We also have a decent amount of liquidity to get there. Trade on XM RealisedGains Investing 11 January 2024 22:53 UTC+08:00 EUR/USD 1HR CPI updateAs anticipated in the previous forecast, price swept out the highs at 1. 0979 and melted after CPI data came in. We can expect price to start taking out the lows at 1. 093 and 1. 091. Trade on XM RealisedGains Investing 15 January 2024 11:39 UTC+08:00 Been awhile since I posted a $BTC Bitcoin chart but I believe we retrace further down here to 36. 1-36. 9k levels very possibly. Just on the basis the SEC ETF granting is a sell the news event, we're at high timeframe high volume node levels, and this is the 1. 618 extension of the previous monthly high low range (as shown). My holdings are from 20k and I sold close to 40k so I am not fomo-ing to buy back in just yet. I will be buying back my holdings there! Doing longer term positional trades for crypto now. Unknown 15 January 2024 11:46 UTC+08:00 Still waiting for D on $SPY. Just selling weekly covered calls on holdings. No shorts. We are still long-term bullish, no point fading the trend. We're seeing a lot of layoffs and inflation doing a second runup. However, I doubt the FEDs will raise rates and I believe they will only delay cuts. Bond Markets already pricing this in. I generally like to time my sell calls and long vega before high volatility news (i. e FOMC, Jan 30/31). Trying to train myself to build a portfolio rather than just daytrading. RealisedGains Investing 16 January 2024 15:52 UTC+08:00 EURUSD/1HR analysisPrice has been choppy lately but I still expect longs to target the 1. 098 - 1. 1 region. It has swept a huge amount of liquidity into a discounted region and potentially continuing the HTF retracement into the 4HR supply. My bias will be bearish only if price breaks below the low at 1. 0877Trade on XM RealisedGains Investing 18 January 2024 17:25 UTC+08:00 EURUSD 1HR analysisPrice continued lower and mitigated the 4HR imbalance. On the 1HR we had a shift in market structure to the upside. Will be looking to take longs at discount range. If price retraces up into the 1HR imbalance, we could look for shorts to continue the 4HR bearish trend. Trade on XM RealisedGains Investing 23 January 2024 17:02 UTC+08:00 Looking at 36k soon. Will reassess when it gets there. Could go deeper based on FED data. However, I am buying back some as I sold off my $BTC for 2x already and want to at least have some back. Unknown 23 January 2024 17:04 UTC+08:00 I still believe $SPY will be the next to drop. Extremely overbought here. Waiting for D. I have expected this movement to 485 so not concerned! RealisedGains Investing 24 January 2024 12:04 UTC+08:00 EUR/USD 4HR analysisprice swept recent highs and created a 4HR break of structure to the downside and mitigated a deeper region of the 4HR imbalance. If price retraces to premium levels or at the 0. 618 retracement we can look for shorts to target the 4HR demand zone below. For now the bearish trend continues. If price closes above the high at 1. 092 my bias will change to bullish. Trade on XM RealisedGains Investing 26 January 2024 16:45 UTC+08:00 EUR/USD 1HR analysisPrice is currently consolidating. Recent price action points towards a bullish reversal. Currently we have 2 scenarios for the end of this month. The first scenario is that price mitigates the 4HR demand in discount (1. 0800) levels. I would look for longs in this area to target the supply zone above at (1. 088-1. 090)Second scenario is that if price retraces into the supply zone at premium levels, I would look for shorts to target the 4HR demand. Taking any trades within this range would be low probability. Trade on XM RealisedGains Investing 1 February 2024 10:29 UTC+08:00 Waiting for the pull-back to D for $SPY approximately at 450-460. Starting 1st layer of re-entry at under 460. Should not be that deep of a retracement given fibo/elliot wave models. I do believe we get a melt-up if the FEDs follow through with their rate cuts. However, with regional banks starting to close again ($NYCB) along with BTFP ending in March, I expect the delays in cuts from Powell's more hawkish stance in yesterday's FOMC to pull this market back into consolidation; as I mentioned inflation is not that easily beaten and he is not willing to pivot so early. If we recall from the 1970s-1980s, Volcker did face a 2nd rise in inflation. Election year is a non-factor. RealisedGains Investing 1 February 2024 16:10 UTC+08:00 EUR/USD 1HR analysisPrice has been ranging throughout the week as expected ahead of NFP. There are several possible scenarios for the rest of the week. I will be looking for shorts if price retraces to the 1HR supply zone in premium levels, or if price closes below the 4HR demand My bias will change to bullish only if price closes above the 1. 0886 regionTrade on XM RealisedGains Investing 3 February 2024 17:13 UTC+08:00 EUR/USD 4HR end-of week recapPrice has been ranging at the start of this week and became more volatile towards NFP. Yesterday's news gave us a huge 4HR imbalance to fill next week. I expect 2 scenarios early on for next week. First scenario is that price retraces up to fill the 4HR imbalance at around 1. 085, before continuing the overall bearish trend. The second scenario is that price continues to be bearish and closes below the 4HR demand without mitigating the 4HR imbalance. Imo taking shorts after price fills the 4HR imbalance at premium levels would be higher probability. Monday's Powell speech and ISM services data will give us the bias for the week. Trade on XM RealisedGains Investing 5 February 2024 17:34 UTC+08:00 I am still waiting for $SPY to retrace. Given the delays in rate cuts. March cuts are very unlikely. May might not even be in play. As I mentioned multiple times previously, I expected delays in the cuts. This temporal strength in DXY and the dollar should induce weakness in equities as money market funds remain attractive. RealisedGains Investing RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 17:35 UTC+08:00 450-460 should be strong support for $SPY based on Fibonacci but should be confluenced with stochastics on the day itself to confirm. Today's China bloodbath was a good time to load up on $HSI #a50 as I mentioned on Twitter!Selling options to hedge as usual! RealisedGains Investing 6 February 2024 15:14 UTC+08:00 In China Markets; Still heavy in $BABA $KWEB $CWEB $HSI $PDD. I see more upside with China after Xi's announcement now. I have covered calls as I mentioned to hedge. Those following my Twitter would know I have been loading up! $NIO also cheap here but high risk. US Market is now pricing in 4 rate cuts instead of 6. As I mentioned previously, I expected delays in easing conditions and a second rise in sticky inflations. This will be a real stress test for regional banks $KRE and geopolitical risks will affect defence stocks $LMT. Re-bought my Crypto early and just holding. Think we get bull run for both gold and crypto in 2025 when dollar collapses when and if they have to bailout banks. All subject to change. Unknown 6 February 2024 15:14 UTC+08:00 Unknown 6 February 2024 15:14 UTC+08:00 Unknown 6 February 2024 15:22 UTC+08:00 This is still in play given the delay in rate cuts and the correlation with US equities might mean it drops when $SPY, AI bubble retraces. I have no idea when though. . . Also I am not trading for a living anymore. Just my 2 cents ✌🏼 RealisedGains Investing 7 February 2024 19:47 UTC+08:00 Sold $BABA and $NIO reallocating to $GLD perhaps $TLT for a bounce. RealisedGains Investing 7 February 2024 20:07 UTC+08:00 Buy the rumour, sell the news. Great entry at 71. 27. Great exit at 82. 50. Exact bottom and top. We're at 76 for $BABA now, had to sell outside RTH. However, it was very toppish and no liquidity so I knew the top would not hold. RealisedGains Investing 7 February 2024 20:59 UTC+08:00 Very good sell. We're at 74 on $BABA now. I might reallocate later but i'll sell cash covered puts at the open. I do think banks will be the next play as with the regional banks collapsing, the potential for bailouts and buyouts will present upside on the bigger banks! RealisedGains Investing 8 February 2024 10:05 UTC+08:00 $BABA drops another 5% on Asian markets - a miss on revenue estimates. We're in unprecedented times, with $SPY not been this narrow and with so many consecutive green candles. Solely carried off $NVDA and a few others. Makings of a bubble. I am not buying but neither am I short this trend - until you see clear signs of a reversal to the downside. RealisedGains Investing 12 February 2024 13:23 UTC+08:00 EUR/USD 4HR Analysisprice is currently retracing to the upside since last week. We had a 4HR imbalance from NFP that has yet to be filled. As of now the higher timeframe bias is still bearish. 2 scenarios for me. First is that price retraces into the 4HR imbalance, gives lower timeframe confirmations to the downside and we take shorts. Second scenario is that price continues to push lower and closes below the 1. 072 region. If that happens, we can continue to take shorts. My bias will be bullish if price closes above the 4HR imbalance. Trade on XM RealisedGains Investing 13 February 2024 22:48 UTC+08:00 Satellite positions. Shorting US $SPY & $BTC, Longing China $KWEB $BABA $NIO. Short-term trade, As per my assessment. Looking for $470-480 minimally on SPY. Did say this here. CPI was hotter than expected, with guidance suggesting high rate for longer pricing in Fedwatch and the Bond Market. Technicals also show a short-term reversal and cool-off needed. Unknown 13 February 2024 22:48 UTC+08:00 Unknown 13 February 2024 22:51 UTC+08:00 More importantly - Rate cuts are now projected for July instead of June, which means tightening and strengthening of the dollar, this should mean US equities pullback temporarily. Will look to load back up on some counters there! RealisedGains Investing 15 February 2024 15:54 UTC+08:00 EUR/USD 4HR analysisPrice is still bearish on the higher timeframes. We have a 4HR supply caused from Tuesday's US CPI data coming in better than expected. Currently we are in a bullish retracement phase into premium prices. The most likely scenario is price to mitigate the 4HR supply, where we can look for potential shorts to continue the bearish trend. My bias will only be bullish if price closes above the 4HR supply zone. On the lower timeframes I would look for longs to the 4HR supply in premium prices. Trade on XM RealisedGains Investing 16 February 2024 21:30 UTC+08:00 Huge miss with a hot PPI. Bearish today on US equities! Unknown 16 February 2024 21:34 UTC+08:00 Both PPI and CPI show inflation is above expectations, with disinflation slowing today. I don't expect rate cuts anytime soon possibly out till July or further. I stand by my thesis that markets are temporarily overheated. Needs a healthy correction. $SPY trading at 501. 5 on pre-markets now. RealisedGains Investing 19 February 2024 15:07 UTC+08:00 EUR/USD 4HR AnalysisPrice is currently in the bullish retracement leg into premium prices. We can expect price to mitigate the previous weekly high at 1. 0805 and the 4HR imbalance created from NFP. If this scenario happens, we can look for shorts down in premium price levels to target the previous weekly low at 1. 06963. 4HR bias is currently bearish, 15m bias bullish. Trade on XM RealisedGains Investing 20 February 2024 09:38 UTC+08:00 Thought I’d share a long position I took on EUR/USD. Given that the lower timeframes were bullish, I took an entry during the NY session after price had swept some lows and mitigated a 15m imbalance region. TP at the most recent high before NY close. RealisedGains Investing 20 February 2024 18:56 UTC+08:00 Lowest I can see $SPY going is 470. We have NVDA earnings tomorrow after-hours, FOMC Minutes & Unemployment Claims this week. Long Vega & Delta negative as I expect volatility to spike soon. Algo trading should be skewed to sell-side this week. RealisedGains Investing 21 February 2024 01:53 UTC+08:00 Still in $BTC and US Equities shorts; to me $NVDA will push this market down further. Held the shorts underwater for about 1 week on $BTC. Targetting 47/48k. Up a fair bit on the $NVDA $SMCI $QQQ short play as well. Will hedge with cash secured puts when IV spikes soon! RealisedGains Investing 22 February 2024 05:27 UTC+08:00 NVIDIA BEATS EARNINGS 🫡- EPS: $5. 16 vs. $4. 64 expected- Revenue: $22. 1B vs. $20. 62B expectedMarket closes green, probably priced in! RealisedGains Investing 22 February 2024 06:22 UTC+08:00 Had to close out half of the US Equities shorts at the close as I felt the earnings were priced in. Still holding the rest of the $BTC short. Taking a longer larger range swing play. I still see the US Equity Markets as overheated regardless of the earnings report. Difficult to trade when there's so much riding on a report with an indetermined releasing timing. I would be cautious still with the amount of FED speakers meeting tomorrow. China stocks doing good as well still! RealisedGains Investing 24 February 2024 22:16 UTC+08:00 I am beginning to realise we are not going to get a wave down on $SPY for D. However, if we run straight to E at 525-535, I would honestly be extremely concerned because this smells like manipulation, driven by derivatives, 0DTEs & not a healthy stock market upward movement. It would very likely be a blowoff top with $NVDA in this case likely being 1200-1400 at maximum. Without a pull-back this is actually likely going to be a spectacular liquidation cascade crash downwards after. This would also mean the dollar devalues hard & bonds are dumped. I got stopped out of my US Equities $SPY short from 502 at small profit & still in my Crypto $BTC short collecting funding with a SL at BE as well now, same targets. RealisedGains Investing 27 February 2024 09:56 UTC+08:00 Bitcoin $BTC is rallying this morning! Got stopped out of the short at BE but still holding my spot - I expect a slow down on this rally at HTF resistance zone at about 57-63k. At the upper range of this at D I will reconsider scaling sells/shorts, the bullish momentum is strong now so not fading it!Added more China as well the last few days. I believe there's a relief rally here if you are not concerned on ADR risks. . . RealisedGains Investing 28 February 2024 14:11 UTC+08:00 EUR/USD 4HR analysisPrice mitigated the 4HR supply last week and showered bearish reversal confirmations. We had a retracement this week into premium levels and price is looking to continue the bearish momentum. If shorts continue we can expect the previous week's low to be taken out. Trade on XM RealisedGains Investing 29 February 2024 01:10 UTC+08:00 $BTC just hit 63k I think this is the top end of the range wayyy faster than expected - Should retrace back down! Taking profits on spot here. Follow at your own risk! RealisedGains Investing 29 February 2024 01:34 UTC+08:00 Unknown 29 February 2024 01:34 UTC+08:00 closed some Unknown 29 February 2024 01:38 UTC+08:00 fun market tonight. made a chunk both ways! RealisedGains Investing 29 February 2024 02:16 UTC+08:00 Nice bounce off the 0. 382 where I closed. I had issues with my limit orders on Toobit as I was not used to it so I had to resort to market orders a lot. As much as FTX has failed me, the FTX UI allowed for greater functionality and creative trading with options and OCO GTC FOK orders. Was a +5k USD on Futures day overall. I still see potential downside on Crypto given how crazy this run-up has been. Trend might change here. However, will look to rebuy the spot I sold in a couple of weeks! Unknown 29 February 2024 02:16 UTC+08:00 Unknown 29 February 2024 02:17 UTC+08:00 We are at D now. I said 63k tail end would be the temporal top for $BTC. Sticking with it! RealisedGains Investing 1 March 2024 02:39 UTC+08:00 Re-opened $BTC shorts after yesterday's close. Looking to re-buy my spot at 56. 9-57. 4k. I am buying back early once again like I did in the past with Crypto as I see not much macro risks & headwinds at the moment apart from it being overbought. Just a technical drawdown in my opinion. RealisedGains Investing 1 March 2024 09:03 UTC+08:00 EUR/USD 1HR analysisI am still bearish on EUR/USD for the rest of the week. There are currently 2 scenarios for today. 1st scenario: Price retraces into the 1HR imbalance before continuing to the downside to mitigate the 4HR imbalance below. (Shorts)2nd Scenario: Price mitigates the 4HR imbalance below, before retracing up to the 1HR imbalance above. (longs)London session will be choppy with all the manufacturing PMI data from the Eurozone. Trade on XM RealisedGains Investing 4 March 2024 09:05 UTC+08:00 Good initial reversal on that $BTC dump. $DXY weakening this morning. Should see US equities and Bitcoin relatively flat for Monday, Tuesday given no data and ramp up end of the week. To me Crypto has more upside than US equities as the latter has regional bank and commercial real estate risk. RealisedGains Investing 4 March 2024 10:16 UTC+08:00 Closed previous $BTC shorts and re-opened new ones for a scalp. Putting stink bids at 54-55k and 58-59k for $BTC futures just in case we get a flush for a flip long. Watch those levels! Funding is skewed positive a long while which implies a lot of longs to be liquidated as seen from the 9am movement. I would be careful still here with leverage but holding spot still. Unknown 4 March 2024 10:16 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 6 March 2024 00:36 UTC+08:00 Still looking at same levels. Placing stink bids in case we get a quick futures wick down. I think equities and crypto are still overbought. This wave should take 1-2 months to play out. I believe we chop down and resume the rallywhen rates are cut in the May/June FOMC. RealisedGains Investing 6 March 2024 01:39 UTC+08:00 Find it hilarious how the top is at 69420. Think we bottom in 1 month. Then continue the rally. . . Please try not to use leverage and when in doubt zoom out. RealisedGains Investing 6 March 2024 03:49 UTC+08:00 Closing along the way & fully at the end of the month. Really red day! Unknown 6 March 2024 03:49 UTC+08:00 Unknown 6 March 2024 03:57 UTC+08:00 58/59k $BTC is here! Stairs up Elevator down! This is not a drill 🚨1st TP time!Flipping at 55/56k and below. Unknown 6 March 2024 04:08 UTC+08:00 Flipped and easy 3k up on $BTC. Stink bids are working 👍🏻 Unknown 6 March 2024 04:09 UTC+08:00 Looking to re-short $BTC at the 30MA, 0. 382 Fibo. Expecting a relief rally before continuation to 55k for our Wave 3 Elliot Wave count. Unknown 6 March 2024 04:14 UTC+08:00 Close here 63185. 5 for flip long. Scaling in shorts now. Unknown 6 March 2024 04:17 UTC+08:00 Great perfect rejection of the wave. Should be back down and to range here. RealisedGains Investing 6 March 2024 04:59 UTC+08:00 Beautiful $SPY rally to end the day OMON price magnet to kill late shorters! RealisedGains Investing 6 March 2024 09:53 UTC+08:00 I think final target by May can be as low as 48655-49255 for our wave 5 count on $BTC. Very possible in my opinion. I will buy full spot back at 55k though. I have added some yesterday back at 59k. RealisedGains Investing 6 March 2024 16:27 UTC+08:00 Pre-markets US Equities and Crypto running higher off a falling dollar. Should be a green day today! RealisedGains Investing 7 March 2024 10:29 UTC+08:00 EUR/USD 4HR analysisPrice recently closed above the 4HR supply, confirming the bullish continuation to the upside. We can expect the bullish rally to continue up to the daily supply as we also have a decent amount of liquidty to get us there. My bias will only change to bearish if price closes below the previous weekly low at 1. 07960Trade on XM RealisedGains Investing 7 March 2024 11:26 UTC+08:00 Think we potentially get a sweep to 496 and then a final blow off rally at 425 on $SPY before a major correction. But the risk:reward on upside is not great on tech at the moment. Looking at bear credit spreads potentially on $NVDA later as we have reached our 2. 618 extension now. Very risky play but I will limit risks with options. Yesterday's FED speech shows a lot of mispricing in the markets:1. S&P 500 is trading like are in a new bull market carried by tech / Regional bank stocks are crashing like the crisis never ended. 2. Bonds are rising and dollar is dropping like the Fed is cutting interest rates. / Inflation data is rising like rate cuts are cancelled. 3. Bitcoin is rising like there's no recession coming / Gold is rising like a recession is on the way. Unknown 7 March 2024 11:26 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 7 March 2024 19:00 UTC+08:00 I am looking at 1. 2k at the top-end target for $NVDA; that should bring the final $SPY target at 525-529 for the full wave I drew since June 2023. The longer it doesn't correct, the more convinced I am we get a strong pullback there. For the time being, rally is strong so I am selling cash-secured puts and holding stocks but rebalancing and selling covered calls. As per Powell's Speech, rates are definitively going to be high for longer but with backdoor easing through the reverse repo market & tga. RealisedGains Investing 8 March 2024 00:24 UTC+08:00 $DXY dropped almost half a percent just today alone. That's huge for currency. If you want to reposition your portfolio into a more stable bet I actually think gold has plenty of upside towards 3k. We have finally broken through the range and trending strongly above the 200 MA. China stocks are also still undervalued but in a bear tightening channel/wedge. The worse thing you can do imo is hold cash given rising inflation and a federal reserve that is more concerned for the elections and buying votes. RealisedGains Investing 8 March 2024 12:57 UTC+08:00 Daylight Savings eastern time will revert back to NY open at 9:30pm Singapore GMT+8 time. Powell's closing remarks which I must highlight is that he sees more banks failing and rate cuts at the end of the year. I am sure policy makers and banking institutions are pressuring him to lower rates at the cost of a devaluing USD. I am almost certain we get fresh lows on the dollar and 5200 on $ES $SPY for our final wave which means we get a $1000+ $NVDA. My gut says we pivot reversal there. I have been correct on a lot of the larger moves over the years if you scroll through the pinned messages. RealisedGains Investing 8 March 2024 21:52 UTC+08:00 Cash truly devaluing! Look at that $DXY drop. I think today is a trend day up for equities - Especially on VIX Crush Friday! Move will fade on Monday/Tuesday as per usual in my opinion into CPI! RealisedGains Investing 9 March 2024 00:32 UTC+08:00 $NVDA doing some correcting at the 2. 618 levels. Think we go down to 765-782. Flushing longs! Was tempted for shorts this pre-market but executing a quick one here. RealisedGains Investing 9 March 2024 02:05 UTC+08:00 I should have went heavier on $NVDA shorts. I was looking at them at the blow-off top this evening. Unfortunately was out so I entered late and had to size down based on R:R. - Still got some room down! Unknown 9 March 2024 02:08 UTC+08:00 I think this is the kind of bubble that you can just employ a trailing stop. There has been zero to little short-interest prior to today & most short hedge funds have blown up already. $AAPL & $NVDA would pull down this rally heavily. RealisedGains Investing 9 March 2024 08:20 UTC+08:00 Huge bearish hammer forming on the $NVDA and a further 3% down after the 10% down yesterday. Bear in mind this is 2 Trillion in Mcap, with the 200 MA still far below. I have no real targets for this, just putting a trailing SL. Will consider a TP at 680-730! RealisedGains Investing 9 March 2024 08:48 UTC+08:00 Sharing some of my notes I wrote yesterday afternoon on the difference between a bear debit and credit spread on $NVDA. Not refined so might be hard to understand. Delta negative and long vega would imply doing direct puts/debit spread would be more cost efficient than a synthetic short/credit spread with better risk:reward on such a momentum based stock. Will do a LIVE this weekend & more often to share my Financial ideas! RealisedGains Investing 9 March 2024 10:52 UTC+08:00 EUR/USD end of week 4HR analysisAs expected price continued to rally amid higher than expected NFP numbers. I am still bullish on the Euro for the rest of the quarter. Currently we have a 4HR demand zone at discount levels and I will be looking to take longs in that region. If price closes below the 4HR demand, I will be looking for shorts down to target the monthly low at 1. 0797. Trade on XM RealisedGains Investing 11 March 2024 13:42 UTC+08:00 EUR/USD 4HR AnalysisPrice is continuing the bullish trend into the daily supply region above. I will be looking to take longs after price retraces into the 4HR demand/imbalance region in discount. I expect CPI data this week to further push price higher into the supply. Trade on XM RealisedGains Investing 11 March 2024 14:07 UTC+08:00 In $NVDA short & $KWEB $BABA longs. Will close majority by this week and leave the rest on trailing SL. I think we get our support zone 780-820 on $NVDA, resistance at 26-27 for $KWEB. China should not breakout just yet. Just as I don't believe US tail dives. Will take till May/June FOMC. Unknown 11 March 2024 14:07 UTC+08:00 Unknown 11 March 2024 14:10 UTC+08:00 I choose direct shares specifically over options because I realised a lot of the moves happen outside retail hours, during pre and after markets. I only use options to move the delta closer to neutrality or to cover positions. Think $BABA breaks above $80 very soon as well! RealisedGains Investing 12 March 2024 13:09 UTC+08:00 6000 shares of $KWEB TP at 26. 3 now outside RTH. Entry 24. 77Profit: 7800~ USDSelling off a chunk here! Unknown 12 March 2024 13:11 UTC+08:00 China stimulus package just came out. Might change the thesis. RealisedGains Investing 13 March 2024 00:46 UTC+08:00 Flipped $SPY short 2500 shares from 516 targeting 480/490 once more. Trailing SL attempt 2. RealisedGains Investing 13 March 2024 01:07 UTC+08:00 I still see China as undervalued and US as overvalued. Just a possibility is that we get a diverging wedge into a final rally into the end of the year before a major market crash in 2025 after the election year. I think it's entirely a possibility that we get a 2nd run of inflation given this equities rally and the persistent CPI as seen by today. February CPI inflation rate RISES to 3. 2%, above expectations of 3. 1%. Core CPI inflation fell to 3. 8%, ABOVE expectations of 3. 7%. This is the 35th consecutive month with inflation above 3% and second straight increase. A Fed pivot is becoming less likely. Once again, I do not recommend trading like me as I am a degenerate and I am just giving my 2 cents. RealisedGains Investing 14 March 2024 12:56 UTC+08:00 EUR/USD 4HR analysisI am still bullish on the 4HR and I anticipate price to continue up to mitigate the 4HR imbalance. There are 2 scenarios for the coming week. Either price continues bullish, breaks past the high at 1. 0981 and mitigates the 4HR imbalance, or price retraces down into discount at the 4HR demand before continuing to push price further. Trade on XM RealisedGains Investing 14 March 2024 15:08 UTC+08:00 I have limit orders placed to close my $BTC positions from 59k at 74k and flip short there. Just trading off this Elon Musk tweet from 2021. No TA involved. Follow at your own risk! RealisedGains Investing 14 March 2024 20:32 UTC+08:00 Retail Sales 0. 6%; Exp. 0. 8%Retail Sales Core 0. 3%, Exp. 0. 5%Retail Sales Control Group 0. 0%, Exp. 0. 4%Misses on Retail Sales across the Board & Hot Inflation! I think we trend down. My 2 cents! RealisedGains Investing 14 March 2024 21:08 UTC+08:00 Might be crazy but I can see us trending down to 511. 23-512. 11 to fill the gap on $SPY very soon. This PPI is the hottest since June 2022. Generally for the last 2 times at least - CPI causes a run-up and then it fades into a dump on PPI. We normally see bullishness on Fridays which tend to be low volatility, that's why we call it VIX crush friday. However, this Friday is slightly special because we have Triple-witching and OPEX tomorrow, coming into it with low volatility. Hence, I think Volatility/Vega spike into it and that tends to be to the downside. $BTC being a risk-on asset should also follow and our dollar strength gets a relief rally up. Long-term trend still up as long as we maintain the levels. RealisedGains Investing 14 March 2024 21:49 UTC+08:00 Trend down I said! RealisedGains Investing 14 March 2024 22:11 UTC+08:00 I like $TSLA at 135-145 for some cash secured puts soon. I may or may not buy them as I have too many running positions and I don't want to overcomplicate my trading process. EV comes with a lot of competitors in the space, but I think few will make it in the long-term after some acquisition (i. e. NIOs interchangeable batteries). It just got downgraded along with $NIO. But we saw $NIO run-up from 4. 80 to 6. 20 a few days back. $TSLA will do a dead cat bounce soon for late shorters. RealisedGains Investing 14 March 2024 23:33 UTC+08:00 We're not going to crash immediately. There will be bounces along the way. This is only a 0. 8% correction on equities so far. I am looking at cash secured puts for $AAPL $TSLA those have good premiums. RealisedGains Investing 14 March 2024 23:33 UTC+08:00 Breaking News:Putin threatens war:Geo-politcal Tensions stalling the US Equities Rally, causing bonds to surge with tensions. PPI comes in Hot:0. 6 m/m is the highest levels since June 2022. Rate cuts possibilities are looking to be further and further out based on the FED's dot plot. Tiktok US Ban gets passed: I believe this is good for $META and $GOOG stock in the long run being their main competitor. Source: Putin Threatens War RealisedGains Investing 15 March 2024 00:16 UTC+08:00 $BTC first support 67. 8-68. 2k. We will bounce there. Same as $SPY. Patience. Layer bids. Unknown 15 March 2024 00:25 UTC+08:00 Threat of war implies you can take a look at rotation into defence stocks $LMT $BA or even a store of value in $GLD $SLV $XAU. Boeing is pretty beaten down. Just a few to place in your watchlist. I actually like Gold given every country is stocking up reserves. I am not exactly sure if the 67. 8-68. 2k $BTC support holds long-term honestly, but it's worth a bid for a trade. I think the real huge high volume node support is 45-48k but I am not sure if we get there. Bitcoin is NOT a store of value, it is simply too volatile and should be seen as a risk-on asset like equities; it is also heavily leveraged with the recent ETF inflows and $MSTR re-financing as well. RealisedGains Investing 15 March 2024 08:07 UTC+08:00 Took a few TPs on my shorts yesterday at 511. 83 as I said at the bottom for both $NVDA $BTC and $SPY. Fell asleep waiting. Should be a 10-20k profit. I gave levels all here prior. Unknown 15 March 2024 08:07 UTC+08:00 Unknown 15 March 2024 08:13 UTC+08:00 Gave $SPY levels here 512. 11 we got our bounce! Came faster than expected as I said! Should bounce here. $BTC also got to 68k. All called exactly from the top during PPI results ✌🏼 Almost a 1:20 trade as I never saw larger than a 1k drawdown. Same as my last long on $KWEB from 24. 6, along with $BABA. Pretty decent month! 👍🏻 RealisedGains Investing 15 March 2024 10:06 UTC+08:00 $DXY Dollar is rallying off the Asian Hours now. I noticed forex pairings have much cleaner lines. With stocks, equities, and crypto you have to be cautious with stop loss hunts such as this move up right now. However, fx lines for dollar strength are cleanly rising. I still believe risk-on trend is down temporarily for the next few weeks as the dollar is strengthening. As I said, might need this whole month after FOMC to find a bottom based on Time arcs & ATR indicators. If we get those $BTC levels I am bidding all-in again. RealisedGains Investing 15 March 2024 10:29 UTC+08:00 We go lower in my opinion. I re-shorted the size I closed for $BTC and on ES futures. Honestly, trading like this is extremely tiring as I was up till 4am and up at 9am for the Asian open. Basically doing this 24/7 now. I shared on the discussion thread as I am trying not to spam. Notice forex pairing don't hunt as much because there are less derivatives hunting (gamma squeezes for stock options, liquidation/funding for crypto futures). More so trading with killzones. Unknown 15 March 2024 10:29 UTC+08:00 Unknown 15 March 2024 10:31 UTC+08:00 Too lazy to even post my positions but as you can see we retraced up back to 0. 618. I did predict this V-shaped bounce exactly. Closed my longs, flipped short. I am only doing this to book profits, minimise downside and maximise gains but this is extremely tiring. Unknown 15 March 2024 10:46 UTC+08:00 Dollar rising, risk assets dropping in Asian Hours!Have 2 years in a prop trading firm, investment bank and 7 years trading profitably now. Been doing my slides up and quietly studying for 2 years now due to personal reasons. Will start teaching only on request soon & hiring a editor to do some Youtube Videos! Unknown 15 March 2024 10:46 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 15 March 2024 11:12 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 15 March 2024 11:35 UTC+08:00 Probably bouncing here. . . Closed short! Unknown 15 March 2024 11:37 UTC+08:00 Re-short $BTC 70. 2-71k tonight and I will leave that for the full run-down to 45-55k. Unknown 15 March 2024 11:39 UTC+08:00 Not longing $BTC here as trend has clearly changed bearish on the guppy. Only yesterdays bounce was worth a long as there were still delulu bulls buying the dip. Psychology says they're now a bit scared! R:R to 55k should mean this trade should be low leveraged! Don't get emotional 👍🏻 RealisedGains Investing 15 March 2024 16:29 UTC+08:00 Looks like no bounce for $BTC in the London Session and US Pre-Market with the new daily savings hours. I will still short on the US Open since I closed around here anyway. I expected the killzone between sessions to have a short pullback on the dollar but looks like guess not. Anything above 69. 2k I am shorting. Unknown 15 March 2024 16:31 UTC+08:00 This is called a Guppy Flip (GMMA). Similar to a MA crossover/golden cross - it is bearish when the short-term Moving Average bands crosses the longer-term ones. I set this up on Pinescript on TradingView! (For your learning) When confluenced with the Elders Force Index - it can be predicative of a trend change. Will share my excel trade log here for free soon too! Going to be doing Youtube soon. RealisedGains Investing 15 March 2024 17:05 UTC+08:00 $BTC Oversold on a short-term basis. Too late to short here based on R:R. Will bounce soon under 66. 5k. In order to not spam, I will shift to discord eventually. Rarely markets run this hot. Traders love volatility! Unknown 15 March 2024 17:07 UTC+08:00 In temporary longs! Unknown 15 March 2024 17:15 UTC+08:00 TP 67. 9-68. 9k. Re-shorting there! Trail SL for Longs with OCOs after this holds for awhile. Do your own risk management. Unknown 15 March 2024 17:26 UTC+08:00 Close $BTC 67. 6k and above - onwards ladder out and flip short closer to 69-70k as we get there. Hard to update this live. Do your own risk management. RealisedGains Investing 15 March 2024 17:42 UTC+08:00 We here! TP if you want. I am not doing this full-time but trying my best. Have to go out for drinks tonight. Taking a break (Say only)! Enjoy the weekend! RealisedGains Investing 15 March 2024 22:00 UTC+08:00 At 68. 9k for $BTCAt 509. 75 for $SPY50k+ USD Profits this week!I have taken profits! Unknown 15 March 2024 22:08 UTC+08:00 Closed on $BTC at 68. 3k average fully - waiting for 69-70k to short. Still think we go there. I close early because I want to derisk positions! RealisedGains Investing 15 March 2024 23:06 UTC+08:00 Closed all positions. Small long on $SPY from 509. 2. Going on Tiktok Live in 5 Minutes! Will do Youtube in the Future. RealisedGains Investing 16 March 2024 01:09 UTC+08:00 Red region main resistance area! Patience on looking to short. You'll end up shorting the bottom. 512. 44-12. 71 for $SPY on the gap fill. 69. 1-69. 7k for $BTC. Around those regions! I can enter earlier personally because I am using profits and flips to buffer. Trend clearly down for a few weeks to a month until FOMC. I mentioned this multiple time above. Unknown 16 March 2024 01:09 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 16 March 2024 02:05 UTC+08:00 Trying to be patient with the setups. Sometimes I close earlier out of principle. Such as closing the $BTC Bitcoin short at 68. 3 and then the flip long from 66. 1k earlier at 68. 3k, even though I expect it to wick to 69-70k. This applies the same for my $SPY short, I closed at 509. 85 from 518 instead of waiting for 507/508 even though my support levels are there. Currently in $SPY long from 508. 5 targeting 511. 9. While the idea would be to maximise profits, I believe in taking profits at a higher probabilistic area and ladder in the flip slightly more extended. RealisedGains Investing 16 March 2024 02:45 UTC+08:00 Patience. . . told ya! I could hold my longs longer. But being disciplined! We don't miss 🎯 Going to be also cautious about overtrading now. I have never took so many trades in a week. . . Might take longer timeframes instead to catch a break. Once again, pretty damn good snipes!Gave 66. 1k $BTC to 69. 7kGave 508. 5 $SPY to 511. 9It's not just the winrate. The accuracy has been pretty onpoint barely a few pips off last 20-30 trades. RealisedGains Investing 16 March 2024 03:07 UTC+08:00 Low Leverage. Sounds ridiculous I know targeting 50k. We'll see about this one. TP 46623/55425 SL 74/75k. RealisedGains Investing 16 March 2024 05:22 UTC+08:00 Clean so far! Calm ✌🏼 On a roll!Awake at the most ungodly hours with little sleep. Choosing to lower leverage and take a bigger move now to 50k potentially. Once again, I know it may sound absurd. That's what people said the first time I targeted 18k from 69k in 2022 when I targeted 69k from 22k. (Check pinned messages. ) However, I have done this many times before. We trade probabilities not possibilities. RealisedGains Investing 17 March 2024 09:55 UTC+08:00 There will probably be a bounce at 61k, but I believe 46-49k will be the larger point of control/high volume node. Whether you choose to TP early or not and re-short depends on leverage. Like I said earlier, I want to hold this down. Can I close my shorts at support and reshort? Yes. Is it worth my time? No. RealisedGains Investing 17 March 2024 10:11 UTC+08:00 People always tell me $BTC Bitcoin is a store of value - it's not. No store of value would have this kind of volatility. I have ran through large datasets on bloomberg terminal before. It's a risk asset for now plain and simple. It can change over time with halvenings and less supply would likely cause less volatility over time. By then, your chance to make life-changing money would be gone, we ride the waves of speculation and volatility till I think 2030s. RealisedGains Investing 18 March 2024 13:35 UTC+08:00 Very likely we get the move to 511. 9 on $SPY at least, ES & US500 are moving upwards today. However, this move is still in the onset of a relief rally on the $DXY. I think this retracement up is also for shorting. Similar to the move we got with $BTC to 70k previously. 300 shares long from 508. 5 to 512 should be about 1k USD profits. Might look to divest into $XAU next. I see opportunity there when dollars devalues back down. RealisedGains Investing 19 March 2024 00:55 UTC+08:00 Got our 512 on $SPY which went a bit overextended. High Volatility events in the coming days leads me to believe we chop back down. We have $NVDA GTC Conference at San Jose and FOMC starting today/tomorrow onwards. I don't want to trade $NVDA as the underlying is too expensive without a split and its too high in IV. Cash covered puts on $TSLA I mentioned previously at the 150 strike have also started printing! RealisedGains Investing 19 March 2024 01:48 UTC+08:00 Gave 512. 71 from 508. 5 on $SPY. Gave 70k from 66. 1k on $BTCBased off the 2 images. Gap is filled. Short term guppy is flipping bearish now. Stochastics also reversing. RealisedGains Investing 19 March 2024 09:50 UTC+08:00 I am also on a Short on $SHIBUSDT ShibaInu & $PEPEUSDT, I think momentum has died down and there will be many bagholders. Same time 2 years ago I shorted $AXS from $157 to $8 which made me one of my biggest lifetime profit trades. Just be cautious with these no value memecoins. They are all largely orchestrated pump and dumps in my opinion. Just have to watch out for volume and funding when trading futures. It's not the same as $BTC in the long-term as they have no scarcity. Unknown 19 March 2024 09:50 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 19 March 2024 11:41 UTC+08:00 Dollar ripping higher with the bond market & dot plot pricing in rate cuts further out till July already. Hang Seng $HSI which is US pegged also sees a pullback in Asian hours now. Bitmex went to hunt down to 10k on $BTC Futures with heavily skewed kurtosis and positive funding; Generally when you see mass quick liquidations like this, it also coincides with exchange futures engines testing a down swing. My past experience. Unknown 19 March 2024 11:44 UTC+08:00 This was already after taking shorts for $BTC from 73k closing at 66. 1k and reflipping shorts on $BTC. I am not closing yet but will consider at my 1st Support & watching Price Action. Decently up this month. Have to consider order book and flows. Another thing to note is the BOJ raising IR for the first time, really affects the currency carry trade! RealisedGains Investing 19 March 2024 13:01 UTC+08:00 Unknown 19 March 2024 13:01 UTC+08:00 If you did this poll fast, you're also likely a degenerate 🤧 I don't make the rules! RealisedGains Investing 19 March 2024 15:14 UTC+08:00 Goodbye Crypto 🥲. . . I went to short Alts with my Crypto profits even though I was very late 😂 Will layer off some at 61/62k $BTC and watching the BTC Dominance chart. Unknown 19 March 2024 15:14 UTC+08:00 Unknown 19 March 2024 15:14 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 19 March 2024 16:20 UTC+08:00 I think $BTC finds support at 58-60k and place a trailing SL; should bottom there, at least temporarily. RealisedGains Investing 20 March 2024 13:16 UTC+08:00 Is that time again where I remind you guys to ladder out wick down $BTC long entries! VIX suppressed to the lows and big data tonight! I believe the first move should be faded but this will be a volatile session. Tomorrow is one of the most important FOMC meeting of your life. Why?This FOMC comes with projections, minutes, and guidance. It's also a turning point - as 3 months ago, 90% concensus were expecting cuts in March. What will determine if the Fed's decision is positive or negative for cruptostocks/bonds? Simply. . . 1) How many rate cuts do the dots show for 2024?2) Whether the Fed hints at a rate cut in forward guidance? Unknown 20 March 2024 13:19 UTC+08:00 EUR/USD 4HR analysisPrice mitigated a 4HR demand and swept liquidity below it, closing inside the zone with a bullish reversal candle. Will be looking for longs to target the current week's high on monday. If price closes below the recent low at 1. 0834 We will assume the continuation of the bearish trend. Trade on XM Unknown 20 March 2024 13:25 UTC+08:00 59-61k, 46-49k main support levels for $BTC. I am not even going to try perfectly time the close of my shorts. It's either we get a scam wick down to liquidate longs and I am forced to close or I close in about 3-4 weeks based on time arcs when guppy flips bullish. I am too lazy to bother. Crypto volatility is really not good for my health though 😅 RealisedGains Investing 20 March 2024 13:46 UTC+08:00 Contrarian Trading:Called $BTC to 18k from 64k (Feb2022)Took many small scalps and shorted $AXS and many gaming coins down. https://t. me/alphagainstrading/207Called $BTC to 60k from 22k (Aug2023)https://t. me/alphagainstrading/922Called $BTC to 48k from 74k (Mar2024)Next play is probably to the upside of 100k+https://t. me/alphagainstrading/1142I have done the same for $SPY, $XAU and a few others on the same threads. Are my calls occasionally outrageous? Yes. Do I get them right all the time? No. I play both bull and bear often. I am also willing to change my stance, to trade fluidly. → Lowest Hedonism/Highest Masochism→ Max Pain Theory/Contrarianism/StoicismTo go against every human instinct in your body, it hurts. Nobody likes you and you will be constantly mocked. Trading can be a very lonely journey. That being said, I don't know shit & the market makes a fool out of all of us anyway. RealisedGains Investing 21 March 2024 01:40 UTC+08:00 When we talk overvaluation, some might mention Nvidia, with $NVDA at 75. $WING at 145 blows this away. Hyper-valuations are not just concentrated Big Tech when a Fast Food wing joint is trading at 145X earnings. Unknown 21 March 2024 01:44 UTC+08:00 FOMC in 15 Minutes; Expecting a higher for longer hawkish guidance with no rate cuts and a lower projection of cuts expected. They'll say 2 but we might get 1 only at the late end of the year. Bullish momentum still strong though! Only expecting a temporal pullback on risk assets till start of next month, I have stated this prior. Rather than short overvaluation or equities. A safer play would be to do call ratios on a very heavily suppressed VIX or buy shorter-dated puts for insurance. Watch the colour of the Ties. NFA! 😊 RealisedGains Investing 21 March 2024 02:01 UTC+08:00 USD Federal Funds Rate5. 50% 5. 50% 5. 50% Unknown 21 March 2024 02:03 UTC+08:00 Think we go back down off this initial spike. Unknown 21 March 2024 02:08 UTC+08:00 Fed left 3 rate cuts in the dot plot. Risk was they moved to 2. 3 likely means they start in July or Sept & do one each meeting with the exception of one meeting (if they start in July). Markets should be fine, small caps and A. I. stocks should continue higher after this pullback. Unknown 21 March 2024 02:16 UTC+08:00 FOMC Press Conference in 15 Minutes. As always guidance is more important and you should fade the first move. I expected more volatility tbh. I think Powell still stresses Inflation is sticky and he's still aiming for 2% Inflation. Unknown 21 March 2024 02:18 UTC+08:00 My best guess is a decent re-tracement down on Powell's speech and that dip is for buying! Unknown 21 March 2024 02:20 UTC+08:00 Move is fully reversed in 5 minutes. Nothing burger. Like I said. Fade the first move! Unknown 21 March 2024 02:32 UTC+08:00 https://youtube. com/watch?v=d2GF5hO5XKsMaximal Employment, Stable Prices. I predict we reverse down! He says inflation still too high, data dependent, etc. Unknown 21 March 2024 02:35 UTC+08:00 I predict we close where we opened today and this whole move is a fake breakout! Powell Speech is honestly a masterclass in saying nothing at all. Professional yapper. RealisedGains Investing 21 March 2024 03:41 UTC+08:00 FED Press Conference Post Mortem; Still on track for rate cuts in June. Powell made sure to qualify the Fed's commitment to bringing inflation back down to 2% by repeating that the target would be achieved "over time. " However, he never clarified how much time. Dovish! I think the full crash comes at the tail end of the year upon first cuts. Generally, crashes happen in confluence with the cuts. We run back higher on Crypto and Equities in 1 months time. RealisedGains Investing 21 March 2024 08:49 UTC+08:00 Very grateful I closed off half of my Crypto shorts at 61/62k! Flipped long a bit late yesterday as I had to assess the FOMC move. Went into $ETH instead this time as I believe it was more oversold! RealisedGains Investing 21 March 2024 09:22 UTC+08:00 I gave away about 15k in unrealised profits yesterday. Had a 5 BTC Short from 70k which I closed 2 at 61k and the other 3 only at 65. 5k. It is what it is. . . Nature of trading!Still a profit, but I had to make an executive decision last night to rebuy. Next big decision point is at 75k $BTC & 525-529 $SPY resistances. Will decide there. RealisedGains Investing 21 March 2024 10:09 UTC+08:00 I agree with the first slide's opinion that Powell caved last night to Election year demands. While the rates did not change, the dot plot stayed at 3 and the balance sheet was increased. This is extremely foolish with the Feds assumption that these risk assets inflating will not have a wealth effect that pushes inflation higher. Hence, why I decided to flip on my own accord last night as well. Still bought back cheaper than I sold. The second slide is what can happen if you marry yourself to a trade. Unknown 21 March 2024 10:09 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 21 March 2024 10:10 UTC+08:00 Chair Powell dovish at FOMC 🕊️By raising the inflation target. the FED is signaling to markets that they're going to keep raising inflation targets in perpetuity - therefore creating a vicious loop of inflation. This will enrich the rich and further enslave the middle class. w/ currency devaluation stocks will also rise relative to dollar simply because the dollar is falling and crypto seen as an alternative to money will have its day. All this while ignorant normal every day peasants who think the government is looking out for them will face higher and higher m/m & y/y inflation. Doesn't matter if they can't afford mortgage, rent or nuclear families anymore right? AI will take over production mmkay 👻Source: FED holds, guides Dovish RealisedGains Investing 21 March 2024 15:04 UTC+08:00 US500 going absolutely vertical in Asian hours. I bought some $TSLA yesterday 100 shares at 173 along with ETH. The dovish statements by the FED yesterday makes me inclined to buy US risk assets but I rather buy something that's oversold & with a cult following. I believe this ends badly in June when the first rate cuts happen. RealisedGains Investing 22 March 2024 22:30 UTC+08:00 I truly got played by Crypto this week 😅 Overall still a profit but I am going to take the week off from trading. I held my $BTC shorts from 70k to 61k and then got faked out by Powell's decision to close at 65k and then I entered an $ETH long just to get stopped out at my entry 🤧 Crypto really makes a fool out of you sometimes. I perhaps should have just stuck with my initial assessment & discipline of leaving my $BTC short SL at 74k and TP at 48k. . . All these intraday volatility and swings are just noise. Unknown 22 March 2024 22:30 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 25 March 2024 15:00 UTC+08:00 EUR/USD 4HR analysisPrice is currently bearish on the 4HR chart. Will be looking to take shorts at the 4HR imbalance region above. We also do have a nice amount of liquidity below so I will be waiting for the sweep before taking counter-trend longs. As this is the last week of Q1, I do expect to see lesser volume in the markets. Trade on XM RealisedGains Investing 26 March 2024 20:53 UTC+08:00 Probably going to hold my $TSLA and hope we get to the upper end of the range at 200+. This would be a 2-3k profit! I'd rather be bullish on something oversold and with a long-term cult following at support levels than buy into $NVDA which is a straight line up here!I'll sell everything closer to June when we get closer to rate cuts. I am always a believer in selling the news 😅 I don't mind being in cash! RealisedGains Investing 28 March 2024 21:35 UTC+08:00 We have PCE data and Fed Chair Powell speaking on Friday with the markets are closed. While I still think the bull run trend is strong in this election years. I see PCE coming in hot and Powell reiterating the rhetoric that he needs more data. I think we pullback across the markets here into Monday slightly here due to funds derisking! RealisedGains Investing 28 March 2024 22:18 UTC+08:00 I am also certain PCE is hot, but market these days doesn't care about data. If Powell does not go overly cautious we should bottom at 515-516 for $SPY and 67. 2-68. 9k for $BTC then continue upwards. I am de-risking positions here. Essentially a coin flip since we can't trade Friday. Prefer to be in Crypto over the weekend for once since it's trading perpetually! RealisedGains Investing 1 April 2024 14:34 UTC+08:00 I know a lot of people see gold as boring - but I still see gold going to 3k. Even if equities correction/crash, I believe at least for the initial part, we will have a flight to safety! If you have not added $2241 presents good support. I am presently 20% into $GLD $XAU. Will consider a partial TP at 2346-2360 to rebuy back cheaper. To me Gold has convincingly broke the 10 year channel and is poised for upside. RealisedGains Investing 2 April 2024 02:07 UTC+08:00 Reached our support levels for Gold at 2240 and Bitcoin at 68-69k. Given the momentum of this drop. I could see it extending down further to 2180-2190 levels quite easily. Same with equities or anything with a negative correlation to the dollar strength. Mild re-tracement happening across the market now $SPY $QQQ $XAU $BTC. Dips still for buying imo! RealisedGains Investing 2 April 2024 02:10 UTC+08:00 UOB One Slashes Interest RatesWhy are we getting rate cuts? Is this bullish for the markets?1. UOB One slashing interest rates signals to me that rate cuts are all but priced in. In Singapore, we generally try to have our SIBOR rates and S$NEER line peg to the US FEDs Decisions. 2. Election year normally comes with debt forgiveness and fiscal spending to “buy votes”3. With US debt growing at 33 Trillion and a 5. 5% effective FEDs funds rate, the US Government paying 1. 6 Trillion in Interest Payments is simply unsustainable for their sheet. 4. If we go by the historical trends of yield curve inversions - with our current yield curve steepening. Rate cuts generally coincides with markets crashes. Hence, why I postulate we still get a correction into June when prospective rate cuts are to happen. FEDs are of course still in Catch 22 situation, but they simply HAVE to cut despite not nearly being anywhere near the 2% inflation target- we either move the goalpost, or at the cost of worsening inflation for the consumer/middle class. My nihilism inclines me to believe it’s the latter. Source: UOB One Slashes Interest Rates RealisedGains Investing 2 April 2024 10:39 UTC+08:00 I am still in some shorts, looking for long entries! Should be flipping at Thursday/Friday after Fed Chair Powell speaks. Not heavily sized so I am chilling. A lot of overstated inaccurate data numbers are being corrected. As expected during an election year - all charades. Source: Philadelphia Fed Admits US Payrolls Overstated By At Least 800,000 RealisedGains Investing 2 April 2024 11:08 UTC+08:00 Same chart as per previous reply. I think the potential for a correction is still there. I will be a buyer at 55k for sure on $BTC. This "new ATH" seems like a great rhetoric to trap some longs and flush them. Trying to be patient & low leveraged! However, long term this year we still go up imo. Same as for AI $NVDA. Not touching $SMCI as they have too little float and outstanding shares - implying they all need to stock split soon. RealisedGains Investing 2 April 2024 13:39 UTC+08:00 Looking for a bounce and close on shorts at 64. 8k-64. 5k for $BTC. Think we are range bound till Thursday when Powell speaks! Low volume node here. RealisedGains Investing 2 April 2024 15:14 UTC+08:00 EUR/USD INTRADAY AnalysisWe had a strong push to the downside on EURUSD with yesterday's ISM Manufacturing PMI coming in stronger than expected (50. 3 vs 47. 8 prev)Price created a huge imbalance above us that has yet to be filled. Currently I am looking for longs after a sweep of the lows during the Asian session into a 4HR imbalance region. I will only take shorts after price makes a decent retracement to the upside at the huge imbalance/supply zone above. Trade on XM RealisedGains Investing 2 April 2024 15:50 UTC+08:00 For $XAU the 1HR imbalance at 2241-2242 would be an ideal discount region for buys RealisedGains Investing 2 April 2024 19:46 UTC+08:00 We're already almost here! Looking for a bounce at these levels and then continuation for Wave 3 towards 55-58k. I can see it! Crash before the June FOMC and then resume the bull trend! RealisedGains Investing 3 April 2024 01:28 UTC+08:00 Little bit more for our 515 $SPY target!Historically throughout this year we have easily reversed any 1% gap down. Will today be different? Will Equities actually correct more than 1%? RealisedGains Investing 3 April 2024 08:46 UTC+08:00 Easy and quick bounce from 64. 5k on $BTC Still got it!🎯 Unknown 3 April 2024 08:52 UTC+08:00 Targeting 66. 2-66. 6k for TP on $BTC RealisedGains Investing 3 April 2024 09:58 UTC+08:00 Get ready to scale out TP for $BTC. I'll leave you to trade on your own gumption. My mid term thesis is still down this month 🤙🏼🤝🏼 Quick morning scalp! RealisedGains Investing 3 April 2024 11:45 UTC+08:00 $BTC could also go to 67. 2-68. 1k to tap liquidity first before going down. I think too early to close here but reasonable to derisk if you are leveraged! I am not closing longs but setting trailing stops instead. RealisedGains Investing 3 April 2024 23:58 UTC+08:00 Let's talk March PMI - What is the Purchasing Manager Index?The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is an index of the prevailing direction of economic trends in the manufacturing and service sectors. It consists of a diffusion index that summarises whether market conditions are expanding, staying the same, or contracting as viewed by purchasing managers. Above 50. 0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction. The ISM Services PMI in the US fell to 51. 4 in March 2024 from 52. 6 in February and below forecasts of 52. 7. With actual lesser than forecast - This generally implies a weak dollar. Preceding Powell’s speech tomorrow. This can signal a short-term rally this week in US equities, dollar-denominated risk-on assets (i. e. Bitcoin)On the contrary the China PMI came out to be 52. 7 as opposed to 52. 5 prior and as forecasted. There is some seasonality here in March. We know why this happens - a quirk of the Chinese calendar. China shuts down in late January or early February for an entire week (Spring Festival). It starts back up again and by March it looks like a boom even when it isn't. Source: Purchasing Manager's Index below Forecast RealisedGains Investing 4 April 2024 00:01 UTC+08:00 Powell speaks in 15 minutes!PMI data just out is indicative of dollar weakness and a risk-on relief rally. Will most likely be a nothing burger. I will likely be closing positions on $BTC longs and scaling shorts for US Equities. Shorting a bull-market is incredibly dangerous but I am generally fast in and out. I believe the month is still bearish or flat coming into June FOMC. Fed Chair Powell is likely to hammer home the message that rate-cuts are coming but not just yet in a keynote address at Stanford University this afternoon. His remarks follow an endless parade of his peers also jawboning market expectations down (successfully) to the point where the market is now more hawkish than The Fed's latest dots. RealisedGains Investing 4 April 2024 00:19 UTC+08:00 Jerome Powell Speaking LIVE 😖"Our analysis is free from Political Agenda; for the benefit of the people 😂" - J PowellWatching LIVE here: https://www. youtube. com/watch?v=KKbE8QB20xESummary of Opening Statements: https://www. federalreserve. gov/newsevents/speech/powell20240403a. htm RealisedGains Investing RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 03:16 UTC+08:00 66. 6k likely the top for $BTC. Same with equities. Bulls have no momentum. Guppy flipped bearish. Think we slowly chop down to <60k for $BTC over this month! Unknown RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 03:26 UTC+08:00 Added into $PEPE shorts. I will check back on this in 2 months! I really hate this memecoin mania 😂. . . RealisedGains Investing 5 April 2024 00:27 UTC+08:00 Was wrong on this (for now)! Good thing I have not shorted $BTC yet (My longs are closed already though)My $PEPE shorts are still in profit though 😂 Guess this is why we only short garbage and not something that actually has institutional interest! I still believe $PEPE goes to shit once the hype dies. . . RealisedGains Investing 5 April 2024 08:15 UTC+08:00 We got our 513. What a huge crash to end the day! 👀 Unknown 5 April 2024 08:21 UTC+08:00 Been holding my $NVDA shorts for over 2 weeks now. Forced closed on some. I am still holding $SPY shorts from 525 as well! I did not expect this drop as it was still flat at 1am 👀 Also holding my $PEPE shorts as well! < Probably holding these for 1/2 months. Unknown 5 April 2024 08:28 UTC+08:00 Full disclosure. I have about 300k in shorts across $SPY $QQQ $NVDA $PEPE. Smaller margin than I am used to using but this dip has also taken way longer than I expected. I had to cut some size along the way as some of my cash secured puts exercised to close my shorts as well. Happy to still be profitable! I know many a good traders who lost money shorting this market tbh. . . I'll take what I can, deserve & the market gives. Unknown 5 April 2024 08:31 UTC+08:00 I don't share all my direct positions, TPs or SLs as much these days. However, if you read through the chat- I am sure you can at least tell my trades have been profitable these 3-4 years! 🤙🏼 Had really a ton of personal issues to deal with but I'll be ramping it up slowly!Thesis for me is still down/flat this month - Correction overdue. Unknown 5 April 2024 08:40 UTC+08:00 How do you trade both sides?I have already been leaning bearish this entire month but that did not mean I did not take longs. I did take longs from 508. 5 on $SPY and 59k on $BTC after shorts from 520 and 75k respectively. However, I did close those too early at 513 and 66. 6k respecitvely. I did even say I expected them to go higher if you recall but I chose instead to close them at my first TPs instead of waiting for full extension as that's a lower probability/expectancy play. However, I ONLY short on the full extension of the move and not where I close my longs giving me more margin of error. I am also cautious of a liquidity event possibility on Crypto and spoke about this on my LIVE a few days back! Unknown 5 April 2024 08:43 UTC+08:00 I did say we could get to liquidity for $BTC and $SPY anyway. Doesn't mean I held my longs all the way there. I have always taken profits on principals not emotions. Yes, I lose a bit of unrealised profits but I save a lot of stress/emotions. That's how I can still be doing this day in and out. (That, or I am built different 😅). Also I reiterate once again, I am an idiot and everything I say here is stupid and NFA 🫡 RealisedGains Investing RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 14:23 UTC+08:00 Why did we pullback yesterday?- This is also a clear break of structure from the channel tightening wedge. - My game plan is to hold my original short and selling covered puts for the next 2 months since we are flat to bearish. Fed floats narrative of No Rate CutsWhen everyone was postulating rate cuts. I was one of the crazies who thought we might not get any/or only 1 cut. I could see the bond market diverging from the dot plot. Yesterday, we had the first narrative of no rate cuts being floated around, causing the fastest 30 minutes marking the close with the $NQ $QQQ dropping over 1. 5% in the last 30 minutes!Source: No Rate Cuts Floated RealisedGains Investing 8 April 2024 22:52 UTC+08:00 Added more $PEPE shorts. A good thing about being downsized is that I can tolerate a lot more red than what I see on my PnL. I also don't expect a trade to go my way immediately so I ladder in during supply zones. Few will tell you but risk management is as important a tool as any in trading. Doesn't just mean blindly doing a martingale strategy! Alts need a liquidity event to flush though. I am also still long gold $XAU. RealisedGains Investing 9 April 2024 16:10 UTC+08:00 I added $PEPE shorts here as I believe we have yet to break the resistance convincingly for $BTC. With halving in the next 2 days I believe to be a non-factor & a sell the news event. Still targeting 55k on $BTC eventually but I prefer to short stupid altcoins as opposed to Bitcoin. This retracement has been stubborn across the board with my $NVDA shorts also still not reaching my target. I am still expecting a small quick dip but the longer we stay here, the more I worried I am this is an extended move down. Generally, the longer we consolidate, the larger the move as more retails get trapped. RealisedGains Investing 9 April 2024 22:31 UTC+08:00 My current play is to hold my $TSLA long and my $NVDA short. Targeting 200+ and 680-730 respectively. Might be wrong. They're both US dollar denominated and might move tomorrow with CPI but I believe one is oversold and one is overbought! Unknown 9 April 2024 22:33 UTC+08:00 Stil holding this play as well. Shorting $NVDA $QQQ $SPY $PEPE. Longing $XAU $TSLA. In profit! 🤙🏼 RealisedGains Investing 9 April 2024 23:07 UTC+08:00 Probably looking at 780-820 for $NVDA to form a temporary bottom. Will close there! Had 400 shares short but I cut to 50 shares already unfortunately. Did not want to leverage. . . RealisedGains Investing 9 April 2024 23:44 UTC+08:00 If you missed Gold, I just want to alert you guys that Silver tends to move after. $SLV breaking out of this channel. When these assets move, normally spells and smells of late stage recession?? 👀🤧 RealisedGains Investing 10 April 2024 14:31 UTC+08:00 EURUSD Intra-day Analysis Pre CPI/FOMCHigher timeframes are bullish on EURUSD as we had a clean break of swing structure to the upside. Currently we have 2 scenarios. First is if price sweeps the prev daily high into a 1HR imbalance region we can look to take longs to target the highs above. The second scenario is that if price sweeps liquidity into the 15m imbalance in premium we can look to take shorts but we need stronger confirmationsTrade on XM RealisedGains Investing 10 April 2024 20:31 UTC+08:00 CPI comes in hot once again! Markets finally reacting down. We had many months of hot CPI yet we continued to rally. Still think we get 3 rate cuts? 😂 Unknown 10 April 2024 20:39 UTC+08:00 We just went from 520 to 512 on $SPY in 10 minutes of Pre-Market trading. Quite the move! Still in my shorts ✌🏼 Unknown 10 April 2024 20:45 UTC+08:00 Followed the plan as previously outlined pre-CPI. News will always target where liquidity is! Unknown 10 April 2024 20:49 UTC+08:00 For those curious on the entry1m Market structure shift after the Asian high was taken out, entered a sell limit between the 0. 5 - 0. 618 fib levels. placed my SL at 6. 5 pips which was more than my usual scalp due to news incoming but I was confident price was targeting the huge liquidity pool below us. Unknown 10 April 2024 20:49 UTC+08:00 We do okay on the $PEPE short! Rotating profits into China/Gold 🤙🏼 RealisedGains Investing 10 April 2024 21:07 UTC+08:00 Sharing some red for you guys for transparency! This was a mess to hold, was down close to 8k at one point. I have already cut majority of my $NVDA shorts and also took profits on 800/1000 of the $SPY shorts. Still holding the remainder of about 300k in shorts. Rationale: I miscalculated the IV and I wanted to rotate my exposure. RealisedGains Investing 10 April 2024 21:40 UTC+08:00 CPI hot for 3 Consecutive MonthsInterest rate futures are now pricing in just 2 interest rate cuts for the entire 2024. This is the first time that markets are pricing-in LESS rate cuts than Fed guidance. Bond Markets are starting to realise. Don't listen to what they say, watch what they do!There will be no rate cuts in my opinion. I've said it before and i'll say it again. My bet is we will see an annualised 4% Inflation Handle in 2024/2025 once the amazingly low fall 2023 Inflation reads stop dragging the average down. Cue 1970s High Inflation Arthur Burns Era before Volcker came in and stood on business. 👨🏼‍💼 RealisedGains Investing 10 April 2024 22:05 UTC+08:00 Learning Points: Today's scenario of Negative GammaWe have a scenario of Negative gamma today. Short Options have negative gamma (i. e. Sell Call/Sell Put). As we are in NEGATIVE gamma, puts get paid. Once you know where the daily puts are, you know the floor. Don’t long in a negative gamma environment. Negative gamma (in the S&P 500) basically is a market phenomena where we see increased volatility because options market makers need to sell S&P futures as the market goes lower and buy them as the market goes higher. When futures are priced different from spot that's where we get Contango/Backwardation and Funding/Swaps/Etc aims to correct this. Gamma squeeze is a different phenomena. A gamma squeeze is when we have a confluence of:1) short-dated OTM long calls being bought by traders2) option volume (notional) is a substantial component of the underlying volume, e. g. , the ratio of option volume to notional underlying volume is significant and not close to 0. Unknown 10 April 2024 22:06 UTC+08:00 Unknown 10 April 2024 22:08 UTC+08:00 Free channel - quit bitching. Jk, ok. RealisedGains Investing 11 April 2024 17:56 UTC+08:00 Still in China & Gold. Just shifting profits into these assets for some sectorial and geographical diversification. Following the boglehead three-fund portfolio and doing a basic sharpe ratio on it. I'm actually winging it! Have always been more of a trader but I am trying to employ whatever I learned with my degree/post grad 😂 Working on an excel sheet! Will share! Unknown 11 April 2024 17:56 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 12 April 2024 02:44 UTC+08:00 PPI shows cooling Inflation?Fortunately did cut majority of the $NVDA shorts, still holding $SPY shorts from 523. Was slightly off on the $NVDA target as we only went to 832 instead of my target of 820. A surprising low read on the PPI of 0. 2 which was below forecast spurred today's rally. Generally CPI precedes PPI with similar heat, but not this time! RealisedGains Investing 12 April 2024 16:41 UTC+08:00 Silver runs hot along with Gold!If you guys have been following this channel long enough - I have been slowly build my positions in Gold & Silver since 1800s. I have said it before that I think we blow past 3k on gold $XAU eventually. If you missed it, I mentioned as well to move in $SLV; we just had a 5% move the last 2 days since I said this. Currently about 40% in Commodities, Gold, Silver & China. We can start seeing a shift from risk-on assets into commodities, safe-haven assets and China possibly. RealisedGains Investing 13 April 2024 01:17 UTC+08:00 Up pretty significantly! Still holding $SPY short from 523+ along with Crypto shorts. Will post PnL when I close! Dollar is strengthening right now off the back off a weakening yen & Middle East Tensions as well! RealisedGains Investing 13 April 2024 01:17 UTC+08:00 Japan reaches an all-time low against the DollarYen has reached 35 year all time low against the dollar recently. This is despite efforts to break a 17 year era of negative interest rates in March 2024. Japan has a current account surplus and is a big net creditor to the world. So the falling Yen isn't about any of that. Instead, it's about Japan's huge debt load, which forces BoJ to keep rates low even as they rise everywhere else. A fiscal crisis playing out in currency space. Source: Yen Record Lows RealisedGains Investing 13 April 2024 01:43 UTC+08:00 Didn't close anything except $NVDA shorts. Added to my $PEPE shorts perfectly at the highs actually & still holding $SPY short if you could tell my entry price changed slightly. . . Decent 6-7k day. Off for a run. Be back at the close! Unknown 13 April 2024 01:43 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 13 April 2024 02:34 UTC+08:00 Force closed on the $PEPE short I am still on a run (meant like a physical run, but also trading run) - Profits booked! Unknown 13 April 2024 02:36 UTC+08:00 -33% down today 😂 a joke RealisedGains Investing 14 April 2024 11:18 UTC+08:00 Huge drop on $BTC on weekend markets, I think we are oversold temporarily here. We will get our 55k soon! Unknown 14 April 2024 11:33 UTC+08:00 $PEPE at my full TP point. I wish I was not forced to close so much earlier. I was expecting this drop for a few weeks already 😅 Oh well, profits are profits. Great for scalp longs at this point for 63/64k on $BTC. Lots of long liquidations on the tape already! I am not longing alts, only L1s; BTC, ETH, SOL worth looking at for me! RealisedGains Investing 14 April 2024 11:33 UTC+08:00 I'll invalidate if we break structure. I entered pre-emptively before the swing failure top formed. R:R is there and I don't mind holding shorts since I get paid in funding. I am not heavily sized in this one. Just 3k but if we retrace 50% I make 1. 5k. $BTC could still do a triple top to 75k - I am prepared for that. RealisedGains Investing 14 April 2024 11:37 UTC+08:00 Not my full account; using a subaccount with isolated margin hence 120x leverage. Looking for 64. 8k hopefully, trailing stops! Closed all crypto shorts before this 👍🏻 Unknown 14 April 2024 11:46 UTC+08:00 Just 1 $BTC long and some on $SOL $ETH. Used to more but I have been shifting profits into China/Gold as I mentioned. Want to use crypto primarily as a smaller trading account and try to run it up like I used to before ✌🏼Possibility of a swing failure bottom forming here. I think we get a small relief rally! Didn't try to snipe the bottom like I used to as I was asleep 😅 I could definitely be further optimised with less sleep but at least I have been making money 💁🏻‍♂️ - sometimes it's about less size, less stress, right direction and general longevity of the game (staying in it). Unknown 14 April 2024 12:00 UTC+08:00 I am probably closing $BTC at somewhere near 64. 5-65k, and leave small runners for a risk-free trade with trailing SLs. Should be 2. 5k in profits here 👍🏻 Just a quick sunday morning scalp! Still bearish on the macro for April as I mentioned. I believe this will be a red month, mentioned a few times already. RealisedGains Investing 14 April 2024 12:20 UTC+08:00 64k? $BTC 👀 Unknown 14 April 2024 12:23 UTC+08:00 GM, Let's talk Trading PsychologyI have had this public trade log for 3 years already & been in this space for 10 years now. There's 2 approaches to trading; (1) run it up turbo, risk crashing & burning(2) slow, compounded gainsBoth works. I want to believe I am good enough to do the former. Yes, I can grow a 3 digit account to 7 relatively fast with risk, but it's entirely different to turn a 7 digit account to 8 even alone. Whenever I do the former (1) and take high leverage/size/margin, I do make huge profits, but then at the same time, I stop working out, live like a hobo & I burn out for 2-3 months after that - just due to general health/mental toll/quality of life issues. There was also an instance I had dry eyes and was in the hospital just from staring at the screen too much. Over the years, I have been awake at ungodly hours with my trading view alerts and scripts trying to snipe perfect entries. Yet perhaps the superior strategy I realised would be (2) and just to trade on a longer outlook, lower size, more sleep, better health/longevity and less stress. Why don't I trade more counters? I believe anything can be traded, I've tried forex, crypto, nfts, stocks, commodities across almost every kind of derivatives (forward, swaps, cfds, options, futures) - I am simply just used to $BTC, $XAU, $SPY/$ES, $QQQ/$NQ as my mainstays. I have to recalculate my lot sizing, r:r, volatility and greeks whenever I touch new counters. Not messing with a system that works. RealisedGains Investing 14 April 2024 13:11 UTC+08:00 Booked shorts, flipped long. Market was heavy for a while. There were signs. Most recently the reaction to HK ETF launch headline, which we not only didn't pump but went down on. And the positive inflows with price down days. The Iranian strike served as a catalyst, people were looking for a reason to sell. This is also supported by Dalio's theory and principles on "Why Nations succeed and fail. " You can see these with the rise in commodities, defence stocks and precious metals lately, and the steep sell off in risk-on assets in tech, crypto, EVs and equities. Gm. Letting some run! RealisedGains Investing 14 April 2024 14:36 UTC+08:00 Got my 64. 8k on $BTC, 4 hour trade, 2. 5k booked! Trailing SL, TP-ing. RealisedGains Investing 14 April 2024 17:02 UTC+08:00 How much blood? 🩸$2B+ Wiped from the open interest. Funding rates went temporarily negative close to the 60k local bottom. That's one hell of a week-end flush. Haven't seen one as bad as this the entire bull market. When funding goes negative and you see mass liquidations at this speed, generally we get a decent relief rally? Why? Funding in Futures is rudimentarily speaking like Rho in Options and Overnight/Swap Fees in CFDs; it's the cost of borrowing. With prevailing US interest rates at 5. 5%, negative funding implies you get paid to open longs/you get paid to buy. Rare scenario, but we saw this before in March 2020 as well. I've seen larger crypto flushes ofc but this one is the fastest in recent memory. RealisedGains Investing 15 April 2024 06:28 UTC+08:00 Equities Futures look to be opening green 👀😂 This is why I closed off my $NVDA shorts as well on Friday. I can see relief if no nukes. I do not like holding risk over the weekend on equities these days, there's too much I cannot control. Weekend Wall Street is generally illiquid and manipulative. When playing with derivatives, it's highly important to be perceptive to Options hours, Forex Sessions, Futures carry. Pros of a Futures perpetual market like Bitcoin is I can actively manage positions. Cons is I literally have the worst circadian rhythm known to man. Unknown 15 April 2024 06:28 UTC+08:00 Unknown 15 April 2024 06:36 UTC+08:00 Buttcoin rallies off fading TensionsVery strong rally of the lows. Can't really control where this goes as I actually think it's not based on technicals for once, and just how the Israel/Global turmoil situation develops. Seeing a lot of false alarms of retaliation the last couple hours. Not selling into the FUD. 66. 4-66. 8k looks like the next stop for $BTC 🤝🏼 Not too worried as I had many good trades in a row before this so I have a lot of profits to buffer, notwithstanding my long entry is pretty good at 62. 6k. Holding above 64. 7k here is crucial for continuation. Cautiously bullish - I have tightened stops. Unknown 15 April 2024 06:36 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 16 April 2024 10:13 UTC+08:00 Got our 66. 8k on $BTC as I said from 62k! Exited fully there already. Still in my equities $SPY $QQQ short! Still there's more downside in April. Will be away from trading the next week as I have personal affairs to settle. Best of luck my friends 🤝🏼 RealisedGains Investing 18 April 2024 01:00 UTC+08:00 $SPY to 470-480 as per this chart Unknown 18 April 2024 01:00 UTC+08:00 $BTC to 55k as per this chart RealisedGains Investing 19 April 2024 02:02 UTC+08:00 Unknown 19 April 2024 02:02 UTC+08:00 That was a good close on my $PEPE short last week. Alts seem to have found a temporary bottom. I am closing my $SPY $QQQ $NVDA shorts soon! Think we bounce on $SPY hard around 497. Then we continue the downtrend for both $SPY and $BTC till 470-480 and 55k - Before we reverse there! Did not make a huge amount as I only shorted 300k from the top as I mentioned but happy with profits 👍🏻 RealisedGains Investing 19 April 2024 09:17 UTC+08:00 Extremely steep morning sell off on the US futures. Looking at a bounce later on in the session. Think we're getting oversold temporarily - will close US equities shorts like today. Risk-on assets like crypto will follow!Gold and dollar rising off the inverse of this move! RealisedGains Investing 19 April 2024 10:24 UTC+08:00 Closing $BTC shorts at 55k! Be patient! No point flipping long here and catching a falling knife 🫶🏼 China woke up and chose violence! RealisedGains Investing 19 April 2024 10:30 UTC+08:00 Israel launches airstrikeIsraeli missiles hit a site in Iran, according to ABC, citing a senior US official. Risk assets crashing and Gold rising off these turbulence. Source: IDF strikes bases in Iran RealisedGains Investing 19 April 2024 10:31 UTC+08:00 Dump largely due to the conflict more so than the China dumping. Just a risk off & flight to safety scenario. Suspiciously timed with the months of overbought risk assets. RealisedGains Investing 19 April 2024 18:09 UTC+08:00 Closed all my $SPY $QQQ shorts here at pre-market from 523. 23 at 497. 8. Think we relief rally during the US sessions. Oversold and the war FUD is overblown. Crypto already led the way with risk-on assets recovering well. Flipping small longs on $TSLA as well at 145 here! Unknown 19 April 2024 18:10 UTC+08:00 $TSLA finally reached the 135-145 support. I would be cautious with shorts here. Demand zone and flow suggests we bounce potentially here! RealisedGains Investing 19 April 2024 20:02 UTC+08:00 Highest short interest in stocks at the moment. A crowded trade. Deserves a relief rally soon. As usual, I shall be the voice of reason and stay contrarian being bear at the top and bullish on this drop. $BTC and crypto is leading the risk-on rebound, we got our final wick below 60k. Think this month is still red after this relief rally. I think the $SPY bounce from 497 will be hard as I mentioned!Then we resume to 55k for $BTC and 470-480 on $SPY. Same plan - I do not deviate as of now. Unknown 19 April 2024 20:02 UTC+08:00 Unknown 19 April 2024 20:03 UTC+08:00 $BTC bottomed below 60k when $SPY was 497 as I predicted. Now we run-up on both hard and then continue the drop for the rest of the month! RealisedGains Investing 19 April 2024 20:32 UTC+08:00 US session as I predicted doing the inverse move. Kill zone here. Gold should retrace off 2400 and $DXY should correspondingly weaken. This run-up might last till Wed/Thurs right before we get our GDP data. There's no triple witching today but I see some options expiry on Friday and the 22nd and flow showing short-term bullish potential! RealisedGains Investing 20 April 2024 00:10 UTC+08:00 Closing off my $NVDA shorts from $900 at $780-820. Left 25 shares shorts. I had 400 shares short at the start. $NVDA literally free falling right now 🩸 a blood bath! Overall I am temporarily down now as I bought some $SPY at 497 for a trade - Will hold and reevaluate levels soon. RealisedGains Investing 20 April 2024 01:09 UTC+08:00 Still in my $SPY & $BTC longs. Looking for 506-508 and 66. 1-67k respectively. Using profits so I am not concerned with drawdowns. I have been patient enough to hold my shorts from 523 till 497. Might be delulu but it has always served me profitably and well these last 3 years trading. Think I have been largely on point still! RealisedGains Investing 20 April 2024 02:05 UTC+08:00 If I held all 400 $NVDA shorts to here it would be 48k USD 😂 absolutely gutted. I only made like 20% of that. Been a bit distracted the last week - it is what it is. Closing fully soon! Unknown 20 April 2024 02:08 UTC+08:00 Left 20 shares of my $NVDA short 🥹 - I am out boys. Unknown 20 April 2024 02:13 UTC+08:00 Been bearish since March/April if you scroll up. Shorted $NVDA from 895-910. I held this for a full month already. As I said here I was going to hold it till May/June. Unknown 20 April 2024 02:19 UTC+08:00 Been holding the positions and updating semi-regularly but obviously since this is a free chat I can't watch all markets or update as live. However, generally since my trades are longer plays you should still be able to followalong if you want. NFA. I already think I trade a relatively wide asset class across forex, crypto, gold, china/us stocks. Pretty versatile already!This is just a journal for me 🤝🏼🤟🏼 RealisedGains Investing 20 April 2024 02:36 UTC+08:00 I did anticipate the dead cat bounce on $TSLA from 165 here as well (^above) and I also said we would still go to the 135-145 magnet. That's the real demand zone I am considering! Hence, I took a quick scalp from 165 to 180 back then. This 135-145 zone should produce a bigger bounce. I am scaling in of course and not full-sizing at 145 LOL. There's an art to trading to reduce margin of safety. I can give you the numbers but everyone still trades differently! Unknown 20 April 2024 02:45 UTC+08:00 Market Recap:Short-term outlook (1 Week): Stocks & Crypto to Bounce, Gold & Dollar to weaken. Mid-term outlook (1 Month): Equities continue down to final targets before resume. Long-term outlook (1 Year): Gold & Silver at 3k eventually; Final blow off bull run of risk-assets into 2025 to close off the election year; maybe we get a financial collapse of the monetary system somewhere along the way - will consider Hedges with Vix. This bull-run thesis changes if we break certain levels but if 450 $SPY holds and 40-50k $BTC holds I don’t see why we don’t continue upwards with our money printers!Chat Update:Also, i’ll do be doing exclusive coaching calls June onwards and scaling off lesser daily updates on this chat. Been already doing it for 3-4 years for free now. I personally do not day-trade anymore, neither do I want to coach it as it will mess with my psyché and longer term opinions. Partly another reason why I was hesitant about doing courses is that I do not want to change/teach a different style of trading as opposed to mine which is working for me. I believe if I am as good a trader as I believe I can be then I should be able to compound an actually sizeably large portfolio over the next few years and I will not get there selling signals as a get rich quick scheme. My teachings will not be short-term signals based. Unknown 20 April 2024 02:54 UTC+08:00 This is a close-up of the wedge I drew in March. I have stated March/April to be Bearish. We reach full drop potentially to 455-465 on $SPY in June based on Time arcs. Elliot Waves ABCDE should look like this. I can see $NVDA at 600s at the end of this easily. The larger wedge see us continuing upwards after that. This is of course predicative and dependent on how the geopolitical tensions plays out! Unknown 20 April 2024 02:54 UTC+08:00 Unknown 20 April 2024 02:58 UTC+08:00 R:R actually not great for longs cause we generally do stairs up and elevator down for risk assets - which implies that there also not much "meat" from A to B as your wave 1 is normally your smallest wave as compared to the impulse wave C, also need to validate Elliot Waves with stochastics. Look how the sell the news event happened with the halving and how well-timed this turmoil is. . . Suspiciously feels orchestrated which is why I mentioned we would have a liquidity event. I am no soothsayer or clairvoyant but it's always so suspiciously well-timed whenever bad news happens 😂. RealisedGains Investing 21 April 2024 16:46 UTC+08:00 Even earlier on in the year when I drew $SPY to $525 and $XAU to 1800s exactly - Those marked the end of the pivot. Pretty sure this correction still has more downside! However some relief here is to be expected. . . Currently, weekend wall street is flat!I drew gold from 2000s to 1800s, now aiming 3000https://t. me/alphagainstrading/922I drew $SPY from 370 to 525now aiming 470-480https://t. me/alphagainstrading/884I drew $NVDA $TSLA to steeply correct and bounce as wellhttps://t. me/alphagainstrading/1264Been on a quiet roll this past 3-4 years 🤝🏼 Quite surprised how on point I have been all these years too 😂 Might be skill, might be luck. . . 🤟🏼 Stay humble or the market will humble you! It's a slow process but it's still faster than corporate slaving my life away if I give myself somemore time. I'll bet on myself. RealisedGains Investing 22 April 2024 10:16 UTC+08:00 Have flipped long on US & China equities. Crypto is probably chop. With gold neutral to bearish. Asian session so far looks like a risk-on scenario with gold & dollar dropping. I believe Friday's drop was a confluence of Iran-Israel tensions, and triple witching. No big news day till Thursday's Unemployment Claims - So I believe we see some relief on risk assets barring no big fud. Should be a boring week actually! RealisedGains Investing 22 April 2024 13:46 UTC+08:00 Got my 66. 1-66. 7k on $BTC selling/closing long futures here. Will flip short later on. Waiting for equities $HSI $SPY to reach my target! 🤟🏼 Went long on Friday if you guys recall! RealisedGains Investing 22 April 2024 14:18 UTC+08:00 EURUSD intraday analysisPrice consolidated pretty much the whole of last week. Currently looking at a 1HR FVG here to take shorts on after price sweeps the previous week's high. if the 1HR FVG is invalidated we can look for longs to target the 4HR imbalance above higher in premium. Trade on XM RealisedGains Investing 22 April 2024 17:22 UTC+08:00 Already green on my $SPY and $NVDA longs. Good closes on my short, as I mentioned I have fully closed. Ate the majority of the meat with my $SPY short from 523 to 497 as well as $NVDA from 910. I think there's a relief rally here at least. Holding positions and reassessing on Thursday, nothing new. RealisedGains Investing 23 April 2024 01:10 UTC+08:00 Markets are pricing in rate hikes now after months of running up on sentiments of rate cuts. I believe we still get our cuts after a liquidity credit event brings us down to our final buy point with $SPY at 450-470 and $BTC at 45-55k. For now, we relief up with a risk-on scenario with gold falling. Still in my risk asset longs! There are of course many options to make money here. I could have shorted gold or I could have long equities. I did both. Will be selling cash secured puts on $GLD soon to reassign the gold I sold at the top. This is a neutral bearish strategy as we have dropped a fair amount today. ECB is probably going to cut rates first in June, implying a weakening euro against a strong dollar. Thus, EURUSD bearish in the mid term. RealisedGains Investing 23 April 2024 01:38 UTC+08:00 Told you guys Gold would reject off the kill zone at 2400! This was a good $XAU short as in terms of percentage movement, it was more than an equivalently sized $SPY long. More bang for your buck in terms of higher volatility when gold is not conventionally volatile. $XAU should find support at 2260-2292 where $SPY would correspondingly be at 505-507 where I will exit longs. I am going to sell cash secured puts with a 5-10 days expiration for gold based on how much I think it could move during this period (We optimise by calculating delta/gamma for $GLD). Unknown 23 April 2024 01:46 UTC+08:00 I am so green these few years💰Hope you guys have been following!As I said risk-on, gold down. Easy peasy. RealisedGains Investing 23 April 2024 15:35 UTC+08:00 JUST IN: EU services PMI higher than expected. French flash services at 50. 5 vs 48. German flash services at 53. 3 vs 50. 6. If the US numbers come in softer during the NY session later on we can expect further weakening on $DXY to 105. 7 RealisedGains Investing 23 April 2024 16:35 UTC+08:00 $XAU getting to 2290 now. Pre-markets on China & US equities still running. Still in $NVDA $SPY $HSI longs. I am short on $BTC at the moment, since 66. 7k levels as I mentioned. All my levels have hit once again! 🎯 RealisedGains Investing 23 April 2024 22:33 UTC+08:00 As expected, US services PMI came in lower than expected, XXX/USD pairs bullish today. Unknown 23 April 2024 22:36 UTC+08:00 Unknown 23 April 2024 22:36 UTC+08:00 Quick scalp on $XAU, after price swept a decent amount of liquidity during London session before reversing to the upside. Lots of liquidity like equal highs and a 1HR imbalance region to target. Absolutely textbook. RealisedGains Investing 24 April 2024 00:25 UTC+08:00 $SPY close to 506. My $NVDA longs up 10%. $BTC flat as I said. $HSI up as well. Gold Bounced at 2292. Literally can't even remember the last time I've been wrong. I am up another 15k 😂 Insane month for me. Or rather I've just been more active back into trading! Unknown 24 April 2024 00:27 UTC+08:00 If you've been following the last 2-3 years you should know how accurate I've been 😅 Guess it's just beginners luck 😊 RealisedGains Investing 24 April 2024 05:48 UTC+08:00 In for $TSLA at 140-145 as I mentioned!! Easy 10%. This few months have been absolutely amazing. With the $NVDA short from the exact top to bottom and then long 😤 With the $TSLA long from the bottom 🤙🏼 Unknown 24 April 2024 05:50 UTC+08:00 Called it here! It's finally earnings week! 🐂 is back temporarily! Told you these bounces would be strong 🙏🏼 RealisedGains Investing 24 April 2024 06:05 UTC+08:00 Think we get 509 $SPY on Thursday and I will de-risk/TP some of my positions across the board there. There's FOMC next week so i'll probably do a bull straddle to long vega into volatility instead. I have quite a varied fair bit of exposure I need to rebalance:US: $TSLA $NVDA $AMD $LMT $SPY $QYLDChina: $JD $PDD $BYD $BABA $CWEBCommodities: $SLV $GLDCrypto: $BTC $SOL RealisedGains Investing 24 April 2024 14:58 UTC+08:00 China and US futures are printing in Asian hours. As I said, still in longs. Thursday unemployment claims & FOMC next week I will have to assess flow. If my speculating is correct this S&P 500 rally has ~75 pts of upside towards 515 on $SPY before stalling and resuming the corrective decline that started at the beginning of the month. I did say this relief will be hard and strong; it truly has been fast. We might push to 512. 5-515 & that will be my final extended target. RealisedGains Investing 24 April 2024 15:13 UTC+08:00 To be clear: I am confident in some of my long-term holdings $BABA $BYD but I will dump $NVDA $TSLA quickly for scalps as the former is still overvalued and the latter still has headwinds interms of CapEx and Sales. To me I did short and long gold perfectly at 2400 and 2290 as shared as well, and I still see 3000 eventually on $XAU after a further sweep down which will be in line with the equities run-up since they are generally inverse. I am just sharing some of my counters I trade. I do not trade them all the same & I can't update here every move I make. Just giving general outlines. RealisedGains Investing 24 April 2024 15:35 UTC+08:00 Most shocking thing so far is that $PEPE coin did not die. My disdain for the shitcoin remains. One day I will short you again 😤 I watch shitcoins often but I rarely trade them, I just openly hate memecoins but I love the memes 😀 RealisedGains Investing 24 April 2024 16:12 UTC+08:00 I am up 20k USD approx now. Closing some now:$NVDA from 780 at 845-855. $TSLA from 140 at 175-185. $SPY from 497 at 507-509. I am going to start taking profits coming into tomorrow & hedge positions. Scroll up to see when I opened these positions and have been waiting for these levels, starting to execute. Will slowly close longs and flip short at the extended levels. I have mentioned my strat before. I flip slowly to give me some buffer. Unknown 24 April 2024 16:14 UTC+08:00 I still see upside just to be clear as I said. I am just following my strategy & taking profits on principle. I have never cried from taking profits. Always another trade. . . RealisedGains Investing 24 April 2024 22:21 UTC+08:00 Sold a bunch of positions at pre-market for equities as I said. In $BTC short. Unknown 24 April 2024 22:33 UTC+08:00 Don't say I gave this or any of my opinions late when I actually gave you the levels for a whole week and saying I was taking profits from my 61k BTC Long at 66. 1-66. 7k to flip short. My levels are generally accurate 😂 Unknown 24 April 2024 22:35 UTC+08:00 Said I was short on $BTC at 66. 7k just above here and said I was going to close at these levels into Thursday. All written down. I post as fast as I can generally. Also once again, free chat, no bitching 😂 This was at the same time I went long on $XAU from 2290, which is closed already also. Unknown 24 April 2024 22:40 UTC+08:00 Just execute. No feelings. Haven't been wrong in a long while. Probably beginner's luck I think! 😅 Timestamps are all there anyway! Unknown 24 April 2024 22:47 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 24 April 2024 23:27 UTC+08:00 Had some people ask me why I took profits?But I took 100% off there with hedges as well and flipped short on 507 $SPY, 840 $NVDA, 66. 7k $BTC. I was reading a trading psychology book the other day; that said. . . we make poorer decisions when we are tired or stressed, so don't complicate things, FOLLOW THE PLAN. If I planned to take profits, then I take. The entirety of the move down and up and then this next move down was planned. I plan for contingencies, I plan for black swans. I don't doubt my choice, I don't second guess myself. Not because the short-term price tells me otherwise or some stupid Finance guru tells me to. There is simply no room for hesitation or emotions in the financial market, only execution. RealisedGains Investing 25 April 2024 00:35 UTC+08:00 $NVDA has fully retraced to 800. $BTC at 64k. $SPY rejecting off the 507 level. We continue the bear trend now! I am already in a modest sized short; not adding. I want to watch FOMC next week to see how far this goes. I think the floor can be deep. Still red month as I said. I wasn't fooled by this relief rally. RealisedGains Investing 25 April 2024 03:05 UTC+08:00 I don't enjoy trading crypto just due to the perpetual nature of futures and the liquidation engine. Really affects my sleep. Will take a break in June after this drop & just hold spot once I buy support! It's about longevity in this game; and while i know how to daytrade profitably, i don't want to pay with my health. RealisedGains Investing 25 April 2024 09:29 UTC+08:00 Earnings Season$META beats earning and yet is down 10% in after hours trading. I would be very directionally careful when it comes to individual stocks this with. Personally, I have hedged my portfolio entirely yesterday as I mentioned. I don't normally do this but with earnings season along with FOMC coming up. All US tech is still overbought on the monthly. Unknown 25 April 2024 09:29 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 25 April 2024 13:02 UTC+08:00 $META beats earnings: -10%$TSLA misses earnings: +10%This is why we use Max Options Pain Theory & Liquidity Levels to find out where most people die. Triple/Quad witching days, Options Flow on Bloomberg/Refinitiv OMON, Liquidation Hunting Zones are something I regularly mention and use for my trading. Don't take the crowded trade. I always trade contrarian as why follow the crowd when most of the crowd loses? RealisedGains Investing 25 April 2024 14:41 UTC+08:00 EUR/USD Intraday AnalysisSo far we had a bullish week coming off of positive EU / UK services PMI and weaker data from the US. Currently looking to take shorts at a 15m premium supply zone provided there's lower timeframe confirmations. Tonight's US GDP data will give us further details. RealisedGains Investing 25 April 2024 20:58 UTC+08:00 Shorts are printing brothers! Wagmi RealisedGains Investing 26 April 2024 09:22 UTC+08:00 $GOOG & $MSFT beat earnings after-market running up over 10% & 4%. Markets sees a resurgence from lows. I am still in my shorts from $SPY 507 (which have roundtripped). Will once again come down to next week to see FOMC. Not entirely concerned as I have profits to buffer, will reassess next week. Unknown 26 April 2024 09:22 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 26 April 2024 10:28 UTC+08:00 Hang Seng (HSI) establishing an inverse H&S already. This looks good! Long on pullbacks 🤙🏼 China finally rallies & US's time to dump! Unknown 26 April 2024 10:31 UTC+08:00 US relief rally looks to be stalling with price trading near 5100 yesterday, and starting to trade back below 5000 this morning. The best relief rallies convince participants the pullback is over. Staying ‘stuck’ in this 5000-5150 range for another week would help that cause. Decline targets remain 4800, and the 4500-4600 range under a stronger corrective move. I am not ruling out a final $SPY move to 511-515 if you read my twitter. I think this takes 1-2 weeks to trap some longs. Gold can then possibly recontinue the run to 3000s on a risk-off scenario. China might pull back a little if there's a liquidity/major geopolitical crisis so I would watch the inverse HnS trendline. RealisedGains Investing 26 April 2024 15:07 UTC+08:00 ^^^ This is still the short-term play. Long EV Short AI Sectors(TSLA NIO BYD VS NVDA AMD SMCI)Long China Short US Geographical(HSI CWEB SSEVS SPY QQQ DJI)Long Gold Short Bitcoin ValueStores(GLD SLVVS BTC ETH)Rebalancing the Portfolio Exposure weightage over some examples! RealisedGains Investing 26 April 2024 15:41 UTC+08:00 The Future of the Chinese YuanChina is stockpiling everything from Copper to Oil to Nickel to Iron Ore. That's what you do AHEAD of a currency devaluation. China is preparing something major. Devaluation is bullish for Chinese Stocks and affects the very fragile SinoUS trade wars & Balance of Payments. Source: Yuan down Yuan down I repeat Yuan down RealisedGains Investing 26 April 2024 15:42 UTC+08:00 Xi Jin Ping's money printers are gonna go Brrr? 💰👀😁 RealisedGains Investing 26 April 2024 20:43 UTC+08:00 Core PCE comes in within expectations. A good sign for slowing inflation. Non-factor imo. Happy friday! RealisedGains Investing 27 April 2024 11:25 UTC+08:00 Regulators close Philadelphia BankThe lender is the first FDIC-insured institution to fail in the U. S. this year. The last bank failure — Citizens Bank, based in Sac City, Iowa — was in November. In a strong economy an average of only four or five banks close each year. As I mentioned, I have been bullish China and bearish US equities for awhile. I have also mentioned a credit/majority event with geopolitical & wars as one of the major risks to this uptrend. For a crash to happen, a narrative is normally needed. Seems to be coming!I expect bailouts and QE to come when more bank closures happened. Source: Bank Closures RealisedGains Investing 27 April 2024 11:28 UTC+08:00 Still in $PEPE short and a small $SPY short that is underwater. I mentioned I would build short positions from 507-511, following my plan. I expected this relief rally to be strong so have not suffered much drawdown yet as I am adding to positions slowly. Choosing to also add a bear call spread on $NVDA as IV is high right now. Unknown 27 April 2024 11:28 UTC+08:00 Unknown 27 April 2024 11:35 UTC+08:00 I have not closed my original $BTC short (66k Margin, 1 BTC) as well. $PEPE short is using (20k Margin, I have closed 10% i. e 2k Margin). Using cross leverage here. Don't be fooled by people posting large percentage gains using screenshots like this. I literally can shift the leverage and the number just looks more. A common grift for people selling paid groups and wanting to entice newbies with high percentage gains 👀 so&so many Singapore Youtube Furus do this! "My Paid Group is consistently making gains" 😂 Unknown 27 April 2024 11:35 UTC+08:00 Unknown 27 April 2024 11:40 UTC+08:00 Wow 😮‍💨 I made 840. 52% now! All by doing nothing but shifting the leverage up, at no risk to the FURUs notional running size. Common grift. Ask your FURU for their PnL statements, most are generally larpers. Personally for myself, I only use 1-1. 5x leverage (in terms of Margin used). More leverage means you need to be more precise, and that also lowers your margin of error possibility. Greater leverage while can mean greater profits and losses, can also mess with your trade systems - as you are not only risking more, but also leveraging your emotions. No great trader with proper size uses heavy leverage. Unknown 27 April 2024 11:55 UTC+08:00 $SPY might give us 511-515. However, I have fully exited my longs at 507 as I mentioned. Will slowly be laddering in shorts. However I still believe trend to be down by May/June. 1 Bank Closure is not going to cause the collapse immediately. Unlike other Finance Gurus (not that I consider myself one), I think I have been very consistent and transparent with my trade setups and direction. I have not been flipping back and forth because of inconsequential intraday market movements. I do not daytrade as I said. Training myself to hold positions which can only be done with little to minimal leverage for sanity of mind. Unknown 27 April 2024 12:00 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 27 April 2024 19:17 UTC+08:00 Good sized short. Holding for 3 days now! Should have gone harder size but I ran out of tether on this account 😅! RealisedGains Investing 28 April 2024 18:20 UTC+08:00 Closed some $PEPE short earlier today; Re-opened new. (20k USD Position Size)Still in original $BTC short from 66. 6k (66. 6k USD Position Size)Embracing the volatility, but this size is something I am very comfortable with tbh. I will be tightening stops soon. A bit lazy to day trade as I think I overtraded last month already. Deciding to just do a longer term swing. RealisedGains Investing 29 April 2024 08:03 UTC+08:00 Closing majority $PEPE short here now. Re-opening later possibly. RealisedGains Investing 29 April 2024 10:59 UTC+08:00 Stink Bids set across 48-55k $BTC just in case! Unknown 29 April 2024 10:59 UTC+08:00 Unknown 29 April 2024 11:01 UTC+08:00 If we get there I might just liquidate some bonds to buy more 😅 I haven't had any Crypto assets for 2 months now. Been itching to buy some spot back. Unknown 29 April 2024 11:03 UTC+08:00 This was a wrong close. . . but to be fair i was also possibly overleveraged since i managed to reshort yesterday's run-up as well. Still in remainder of positions! RealisedGains Investing 29 April 2024 21:25 UTC+08:00 $TSLA up to 190 on Pre-Market! I closed off most of my positons I bought from 135 at 170 as I mentioned but I will fully close at 190-195. Today is a US bank holiday so probably not much to add 🤙🏼 I still see headwinds in the market coming next week. RealisedGains Investing 29 April 2024 21:44 UTC+08:00 I am building my short positions! $NVDA flush looks strong 👀 RealisedGains Investing 29 April 2024 23:14 UTC+08:00 One of the slowest retracements - tells me I don't think it's going to go that deep. The largest economy US is possibly tightening but the 2nd & 3rd largest economy in China & Japan are moving into easing conditions. Hence, $BTC as a global asset is torn on where to go. Max pain - 48-54k. As of now, if those levels hold, I think the devaluing Yen & Yuan will push prices to ATH eventually - Asian buyers will save the crypto market. RealisedGains Investing 29 April 2024 23:15 UTC+08:00 Yen Drops Massively despite Tightening RatesThe yen’s plunge to 34-year lows (falling 11 per cent against the US dollar so far this year) has come despite a historic exit from negative rates last month as traders bet Japanese rates will remain low for some time. The Estimated Yen carry trade* in stocks and bonds is ~$4. 5 trillion. The carry trade occurs when one *Borrows in a currency with low rates (Yen) and investing proceeds in a higher-yielding currency (USD). Japan is also the second largest holder of US Debt behind China. It is a big risk if it unwinds. The more the Yen falls the higher probability that the Bank of Japan will rise rates or maybe even the US Fed will cut if risks goes global. In that case carry trade becomes less profitable and may trigger capital outflow from US bonds and stocks. Source: Yen all-time Low RealisedGains Investing 29 April 2024 23:36 UTC+08:00 Very rare that we get negative funding in $BTC, should have some tiny relief here - negative funding and huge long liquidations would be my queue to flip long. presently only the former of those criterias are met. Negative funding implies you are being paid to long and borrow money; just means there are too many market participants on the short-side of the market in derivatives. Derivative flows often dictate the markets more than spot as there's just more volume/liquid in those market. Unknown 29 April 2024 23:40 UTC+08:00 That being said, I am not long. Actually waiting for entries for re-short $PEPE at above 0. 0073. Took decent profits already!I am short pepe gang 🍆👀 RealisedGains Investing 30 April 2024 07:41 UTC+08:00 Got our move above 64k $BTC, re-entered short on $PEPE at 0. 0074. Funding has flipped! RealisedGains Investing 30 April 2024 08:05 UTC+08:00 Closed short at negative funding yesterday. Just re-opened shorts. Still same 20k size on $PEPE. My crypto futures account is my smallest account - trying to build it up! Unknown 30 April 2024 08:05 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 30 April 2024 15:55 UTC+08:00 The last time I said to place stink bids at 59k we dropped to 59k and I caught the exact bottom perfectly. I am once again leaning on placing stink bids again. Literally no harm and free money most of the time if you are properly leveraged 👍🏻 Unknown 30 April 2024 15:56 UTC+08:00 If you recall. . . ^ Unknown 30 April 2024 15:58 UTC+08:00 We reversed 3k in 10 minutes right after I entered. That's a 10% move on a 60k $BTC counter mind you!^It's not true pricing, it's just futures slipping & a long liquidation cascade. Just like how oil went negative in 2020 and how Essex Traders capitalised on it! RealisedGains Investing 30 April 2024 16:14 UTC+08:00 How-to Stink BidHow I do this is that I ladder across High Volume Nodes and different demand zones. If it goes down to my max extension point, I will likely be up to 1. 5-2. 5x Cross Leveraged; hence, price would need another 33-50% drop to liquidate me. To prevent this, I either ladder across a wider region or pre-place an SL with my orders. I use pretty rudimentary math and IV to see how far it can go but over the years, this system has worked for me in getting very good entries. Crypto works brilliant for this as there are so many leveraged retail players buying into higher extrinsic value. Fair Warning: You should also research the depth, orderbooks & market markets of your respective exchanges as back in March 2020, some exchanges were actually illiquid and books were so thin everyone was essentially liquidated. I can name many examples just of experience. RealisedGains Investing 30 April 2024 16:33 UTC+08:00 Inverse your favourite Crypto Influencers 🫡 Unknown 30 April 2024 16:33 UTC+08:00 Unknown 30 April 2024 16:33 UTC+08:00 Unknown 30 April 2024 16:33 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 30 April 2024 16:42 UTC+08:00 HK BTC ETFs Sell the news event?Many were expecting more significant volume. Good news in the long-run is that more institutions are adopting crypto. I will still be accumulating with trading profits. Source: HK ETF Pokgai RealisedGains Investing 30 April 2024 22:24 UTC+08:00 Bearish economic data today as well as risk-off into FOMC. Feels like a nothing burger though so far though!Market is probably starting to price in a potentially hawkish rhetoric by Powell given the last 3 months of persistent inflation data. I think the devaluing Yen & Yuan is also of concern to the US Fed as they are the largest 2 holder of US debt and might dump treasuries to perk their own currencies, while buying more gold for reserves. If we do continue higher for longer, I think more banks will crack as well. RealisedGains Investing 30 April 2024 23:14 UTC+08:00 There was a good hour after I posted this that price was actually chopping at 64/65k. I was even red for a bit so you did have time to get in. I am still holding all my shorts. Have not closed anything. There are all absolutely printing. Unknown 30 April 2024 23:15 UTC+08:00 My April so far:Short $NVDA from 910Longed $TSLA from 135-145Shorted $BTC multiple times 73kShorted $SPY 524 to flip 508 and then flip short again to a final flip at 497 till now flipping short. Longed China from lows, just closedShorting $PEPEEntry: 0. 0071Exit: 0. 048Re-shortedEntry: 0. 0077Exit: 0. 0070Re-shortedEntry: 0. 0076Exit: 0. 0071Re-shortedEntry: 0. 007446Sounds larpy but if you were here this whole month you should have seen it live. Haven't been off much. Will once again post PnL and excel sheet when I am done. Just quietly in the zone now. Be back when I close! Unknown 30 April 2024 23:26 UTC+08:00 As I mentioned above^ 195 is enough to get out of $TSLA. I am not bullish on Tesla in the next 3 months. We're likely to fill the gap back to 165-170. Unknown 30 April 2024 23:38 UTC+08:00 turning 3 digits to 7 digits 👀 a pretty wild 3 years journey. RealisedGains Investing 1 May 2024 00:39 UTC+08:00 Not the place to short anymore. Too late. I am expecting bounces here already. I am tapering off 20% of shorts. Unknown 1 May 2024 00:42 UTC+08:00 Probably going 60. 8k - 61. 6k to flush late $BTC shorters. It's too early to long, but too late to short. Not sure if it makes sense but there's not much meat on longs so I would only sell puts here or partial close. It's just my approach. RealisedGains Investing 1 May 2024 02:04 UTC+08:00 I have closed half shorts at $BTC 60. 1k here price action showing signs of relief. Think this trendline holds till tomorrow where we get relief in the asian session. Unknown 1 May 2024 02:18 UTC+08:00 There's a rudimentary math behind what I do. Why I don't add more shorts, and why I only de-risk positions by closing. Simply put: Why would I take on more risks when the probability of a bounce gets higher, the lower we draw down? This is why I scale in and out of trades; I do not add shorts on the way down, or add longs on the way up (These can work once or twice but it's not proper risk management, it's more akin to momentum VWAP day trading). I do not chase or fomo. These are lessons I learned early on in trading and a principle-based approach with my 7 Golden Rules of Trading (I wrote this myself 7 years ago). At best, I hedge with options or move closer to delta/gamma neutrality. In the long run, I must have positive expectancy to be an effective trader. RealisedGains Investing 1 May 2024 06:33 UTC+08:00 60. 8k now! Great close! Unknown 1 May 2024 06:40 UTC+08:00 Took a 2 million position against the market with a $SPY 510. 40 short yesterday. Seeing it at 500. 90 right now is amazing. Woke up to see half of it TP-ed away. Should be 30k USD in profits in addition. Along with the $BTC short at 66k which I have closed half. The profits this month have been great I must say. Unknown 1 May 2024 06:40 UTC+08:00 Unknown 1 May 2024 06:44 UTC+08:00 ^This is after many other good trades this month. All posted there. Might go ghost for awhile to trade quietly! I've shot my own shot this whole time. I've transparently posted all when I opened and closed 🫡I literally said I was shorting then 😅 Unknown 1 May 2024 06:51 UTC+08:00 I also flipped long on $PEPE and closed half of my $BTC positions. Will let Asia do it's relief rally and all and reassess after a nap 🤙🏼Crypto futures has been my smallest account but I managed to turn 1k into almost 20k with only 1-2x Leverage this last 3 months; no large drawdowns which is a sign of a good trader! Unknown 1 May 2024 06:51 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 07:25 UTC+08:00 This was before I slept. I think majority of my $SPY force closes are at 502-504. I sold 0DTE puts at 504 and 502 strike for little premiums < This was quite dumb but I was tired. My entry at 509. 61 was pretty good as I only suffered a 2. 5k drawdown to make close to 25k so far. Good 1:10 RR. Have some $NVDA shorts too!I dumped majority of my China positions as well as aggressively hedged the remainder of my long-term portfolio. I see potential for a small relief today. Should have traded some $VIX with a back call spread but I was also a little tired. Perhaps I should put more time into trading. Interesting how people think of $XAU $GLD as a market hedge but it's just been dumping alongside $BTC and $SPY as well. Might enter gold again soon. Unknown RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 07:32 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 10:41 UTC+08:00 Took $XAU Shorts during yesterday's NY session given the huge liquidity area we have to the downside. Seems that break and retest works pretty well on the lower timeframes for scalping, much more different than EUR/USD. RealisedGains Investing RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 14:30 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 15:27 UTC+08:00 Not sure why I trimmed 20% yesterday on my shorts $BTC but it is what it is 😅 I am just not going to look at my portfolio anymore. I have set the necessary limit orders to close and flip long and stop losses. I've worked in funds before and there are many traders out here on "funded challenges" or larping demo accounts. Say what you want but there's a real difference when you're dealing with your own money. Entirely different ball game. Unknown RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 15:30 UTC+08:00 We might just get 55k $BTC today. . . Also I think I am using more significant size than at least 95% on here anyway. (based on this poll^) Still significant! Unknown RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 15:35 UTC+08:00 Held these shorts from 72k $BTC if you scroll through the thread ^ with multiple good flips along the way. Sad to see you go but it's soon time. 👋🏼 Unknown RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 15:36 UTC+08:00 By soon, I am literally thinking the next 24 hours. Crucial day with FOMC! Unknown RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 15:39 UTC+08:00 Maybe 1 more hour at this rate. . . Unknown RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 15:44 UTC+08:00 Closed all $PEPE shorts here. Move down was too fast. I want to watch $FOMC. Still holding $BTC Short. Alts are just more dangerous to hold due to the illiquid nature. Unknown RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 15:48 UTC+08:00 Kind of reminds me of the time I shorted $AXS from the top. There were bounces along the way. It's just easy for MMs or large players to buyback and kill shorters. Also, reminds me of how heavily propped up $NVDA has been. I much rather trade $SPY or $BTC as I am familiar with their IV. Once again, I might be wrong for trimming. However, I've held these positions for 2 weeks now and they are still in the 5-6 digits. Enough for me. There's always another trade. RealisedGains Investing RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 16:08 UTC+08:00 Think we bounce here to 59. 4-60. 2k on $BTC. Not a huge bounce but I want to de-risk. If we get there i'll open half of closed positions to re-short. Eventually we get to 52k-55k though! Just de-leveraging positions. Not longing. RealisedGains Investing RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 17:00 UTC+08:00 This was scary to long ngl. . . Will hope to re-short into FOMC later! RealisedGains Investing RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 20:09 UTC+08:00 Good close! Should have longed my $BTC as well but the $PEPE long is covering for it. Lets see 59k now! Unknown RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 20:10 UTC+08:00 Pretty much been on a roll lol. Unknown RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 20:13 UTC+08:00 Think I will go restart a fresh 10k account and get back on the leaderboards on Binance. Unknown RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 20:18 UTC+08:00 I am going back to where it all started. It's not insane ROI on this account because I was shifting between platforms a lot. You may scan the QR code to copy my trades if you want! RealisedGains Investing 2 May 2024 00:06 UTC+08:00 This is still the rough playbook for my mid-term play. You can see $NIO rallying today (China + EV) Longed 4. 9, Closing 7. 33. 300 Size, 1. 5k USDYou can see $NVDA dumping today(US + AI) Shorted from 910, Closing 625. 50 Size, 45k USDNext bigger play move would possibly be the gold long from 2255-2290 I will be bidding! RealisedGains Investing 2 May 2024 08:09 UTC+08:00 FOMC SummaryFed leaves rates on hold. Notes lack of further progress on inflation in recent months. Reduces QT down to $25 billion from $60 billion. Why did I flip bullish yesterday?There were rumours (which I did not want to post here, but I did on twitter) that the FED was cutting QT levels! Indeed they did. Guess it's back to the standard election year shenanigans. Unknown 2 May 2024 08:12 UTC+08:00 I didn't post the rationale as they were merely rumours but I did cut all my shorts across $PEPE $BTC $SPY $NVDA which I mentioned here. That being said, I am still bearish after this final rally. Unknown 2 May 2024 08:13 UTC+08:00 My best guess is $SPY to 505-506 and $BTC to 59. 4k-60. 2k as I mentioned here^ Will reassess later. Still a very good week! Unknown 2 May 2024 08:24 UTC+08:00 Shifted to Binance but $PEPE back up to 0. 0069. Look how sick my close was! 😤 Still got it 🤙🏼 RealisedGains Investing 2 May 2024 09:34 UTC+08:00 Gm. I'm back on short $PEPE gang. RealisedGains Investing 2 May 2024 10:36 UTC+08:00 My $KWEB and China also up today it looks on the $HSI. Looks like all economies back on the bull-run stimulus package! RealisedGains Investing 2 May 2024 11:04 UTC+08:00 $NIO has done 10-20% days for 3-5 days in a row now. Insane. I am holding just 300 shares. I think this goes to 7+. RealisedGains Investing 2 May 2024 12:00 UTC+08:00 Equities Wrap-upYesterday presented a lot of volatility in terms of earnings. One of the biggest movers was $CVNA. Despite their 40% move up; they still have what I believe to be negative earnings due to warrant markups to FMV on their stocks. I still think the valuations on a lot of US stocks are insane. It is merely propped up. It is extremely dangerous to short and a lot of people tend to short when it's flat & then die. (Ticker showed many margin calls on this yesterday). This is when I START to build a small short position or a bear debit spread on unsustained rallies like this on bad companies. Looks purely like a short squeeze. As it stands, I am still going to be shorting US Tech and long China AI ($BABA $BYD $NIO). Unknown 2 May 2024 12:02 UTC+08:00 $NIO is also not cash-flow positive or profitable might I add. They just have more cash then their stock is even valued at. Long-term I am not confident in this company yet, unless $BYD buys over their tech - so only allocated 1. 5k USD. Unknown 2 May 2024 12:16 UTC+08:00 I had 3000 shares of $BABA^^ from 69 and 1000 shares of $KWEB^^ at 24. 6 since a month ago. Unfortunately, half of the very ambitious sell calls I had on these got assigned. I was trying not to get assigned and just collect premiums but it is what it is. Was forced to take profits on some. Will go extremely ambitious on my last few sell calls. I only have a 200k allocation left in China from an initial 400k. . . 🥲 RealisedGains Investing 2 May 2024 23:46 UTC+08:00 Literally predicted the breakout here on China saying it runs in May FOMC^ This was when China was at the bottom and I reloaded a second time during the Israel strike. Still gutted I sold half but I am no longer chasing, just letting my spot run. I had a few big calls this year with gold for the breakout and now China. Sometimes, the amount you end up with is just what you deserve 🥲 RealisedGains Investing 3 May 2024 09:21 UTC+08:00 Full Disclosure:I have taken close to 3-5 million in total trade volume the last 3 weeks & while I did make a good 60k. Upon my calculations, it simply would not even have outperformed just holding my 3000 shares of $BABA which I bought at a cost average of $69 (shown) & even giving the price target of $80 with the breakout on the May FOMC. I sold half of these on the way up, thinking I can deploy the margin to better use on other investments and re-enter my Chinese stocks. Sometimes you can predict everything but still poorly execute. Bear in mind, I was extremely on point with my $SPY & $BTC longs and shorts and yet I would still underperform a simple buy & hold strategy with 10x less equivalent risk undertaken in trade volume and opportunity cost. Granted 3000 shares in one stock is extremely high allocation because that would exceed 50% of my entire stock portfolio. That being said; profits are profits and there's always a next trade. Lesson in there. RealisedGains Investing 3 May 2024 09:31 UTC+08:00 Late-Stage Capitalism AppleBREAKING: Apple stock, $AAPL, adds $180 BILLION in market cap after announcing the largest stock buyback in history. Apple will be buying back $110 billion of stock and raised their dividend by 4%. $90 billion in revenue and $110 billion stonk buyback. . . Totally normal. . . Without the maverick and innovator in the Late Steve Jobs, it appears Apple is just pandering to the likes of balance sheets & shareholders. Source: How you like them apples? (- Good Will Hunting) RealisedGains Investing 3 May 2024 09:39 UTC+08:00 Was buying back heavily yesterday at $BABA 74. 60 and $KWEB 27. 85 ^. True conviction shows when you average up? They said to dollar cost average, they didn't say which direction 😫That being said, with the backdoor QE resuming based on FOMC Minutes, I am inclined to believe the US is going to allow inflation (at least at current levels) to devalue their debt. Gold $XAU should drop to 2260 approximately and that will mark the corresponding top in equities again with $BTC possibly even pushing past my 60. 8k target to extend into 62. 6-62. 9k. RealisedGains Investing 3 May 2024 10:15 UTC+08:00 The only US stocks I feel are still undervalued are $PYPL and $META. Yes, even after a 500% move from the 80s, it's still not an expensive stock by any measure. Especially after the earnings drop on $META and the Tiktok ban. I will be accumulating these as well or at least selling puts. If you believe that the US economy will be fine, it's an easy buy at these prices. $CVNA bear spreads at the 145-165 levels are also a play. There's overhead resistance at the 200 SMA line, garbage stock by any measure that suffers from high rates, it's at fibo exhaustion levels, and we just had an ersatz short squeeze move up where insti shorts were forced to cover. RealisedGains Investing 3 May 2024 18:34 UTC+08:00 Sharing a long-term trade setupHow to hedge the US MarketCounters: $TLT $SLV $SLJ $VIX $UVXY, etcLet me prephase this by saying the US equities market is simply still. . . overbought. I've shorted this a few times but I had to be very precise with my levels. On the contrary, what are good hedge exposure for an equities portfolio aside from dangerously direct shorting. There's a very high R:R trade in $TLT if we ever get into a recession and the fed finally does cut; this can easily double or triple even. . I predict that a larger equities correction happens in June-August and at the bottom when banks fail/war strifes. The US is forced to devalue once again & resume QE. With lowered rates, long term yields then soar. Entry on these is in the $70-80 region. $SLV is also in a cup and handle and normally lags behind gold by 4-5 months (almost there with a bull flag/penant forming); with the gold-silver ratio at ATH of 87:1 now it is the most underpriced in over a century. This is normally manipulated by institution such as JP Morgan but a small holding might be in order. Aside from gold $GLD $XAU, miners in $NUGT $SILJ can be seen to be consolidating. Not $VIX $UVXY for beginners as leveraged contango kills you. For those more skilled, a timed call backspread works on these. Or just buy more China, Japan equities on pullback $HSI $CWEB $YIFF $A50 $1329 $9988, etc RealisedGains Investing 3 May 2024 23:15 UTC+08:00 1 more leg up to 62. 6-62. 9k $BTC probably and I will load shorts there! RealisedGains Investing 10 May 2024 00:05 UTC+08:00 Suspiciously green and low volume week off no economic data, greed and fear index also shows we're relatively neutral - good week to just sell options as we chop. Still feel the US is overvalued but I would rather suggest the hedges above! Been buying more $CWEB $SLV $TLT. Short to Medium Term View:- Bullish China, Japan, US Long-dated Bonds, Precious Metals- Flat to Bearish Crypto & US Equities (Tech especially) RealisedGains Investing 10 May 2024 12:23 UTC+08:00 $SLV & $TLT have gone up 5% and 2% since I wrote this, I bought in at 24. 5 and 88 respectively. This US equities pump still seems extremely suspicious to me given its on the backdrop of record low volumes as well as defence stocks rising and oil still suppressed. There is a very peculiar and unusual correlation with these traditional risk-off assets rising (Gold, Silver, Bonds) alongside risk-on assets (Crypto, Stocks) rising as well!Rather than short heavily I am leaning towards just holding my holdings in $SLV $GLD $XAU bonds. I also think Crypto decouples from US equities and bull runs later on towards the year with rising inflation. RealisedGains Investing 14 May 2024 16:28 UTC+08:00 Gamestop $GME halts trading yesterday and does over 100% over the previous days amidst Roaring Kitty resurgence from the ashes on X. There's technical upside here, but no fundamentals; essentially gambling. I wasn't in on this but still long on $BABA $NIO $JD and my $TLT $GLD $SLV from the bottom. Stimmies are here! Still long China, bearish flat US. Other than these specific meme stocks $GME $AMC, I think $BNGO $CLOV (Chamath's SPACs and Genomics phase) are some that I am watching the short interest and a retest of the 200MA, those have been clobbered the last few years. RealisedGains Investing 14 May 2024 20:12 UTC+08:00 ngl look at the pre-market price action on this. this is absolutely wild. Unknown 14 May 2024 20:12 UTC+08:00 i posted this 1 minute ago and it's $70 now. RealisedGains Investing 14 May 2024 22:37 UTC+08:00 Hot PPI & Dovish Optimistic PowellFED'S POWELL: MY CONFIDENCE IN INFLATION MOVING BACK DOWN IS LOWER THAN IT WAS. WE'VE MADE REAL PROGRESS ON INFLATION. By removing coffee from the index (up over 78% over the last couple of years). Powell just said a bunch of nothing after an extremely hot PPI read above expectations. This is bullish temporarily but I think it is still smoke and mirrors. Headwinds still there! RealisedGains Investing 14 May 2024 23:34 UTC+08:00 Market Colours today: Float is extremely bad on $GME, there is no fundamentals but I wouldn't short without stops given this has garnered sizable media attention with Roaring Kitty, Andrew Tate & media outlets now picking up on it. The fomo retail can be hard to predict. Most of the toppish action happened pre-market so you were unable to do puts as usual. $BABA also correcting hard after earnings. Continuing the trend of buy the rumour, sell the news with $META and $TSLA front-running their earning results and fading the news. Nothing too unexpected. Still bullish China as a whole! I also feel the bonds rising and risk-off assets rising along with a steepening yield curve still spells warning for US equities. Am on bear call spreads for $SPY under strike 530 and starting to sell cash secured puts back on the $BABA I sold. Unknown 14 May 2024 23:45 UTC+08:00 Went into both $CLOV & $BNGO as I said earlier during premarket for a trade. Both looks like potential for a short squeeze to the upside based on float and short interest. Latter specifically looks bouncey and might break past the 200MA. Unknown 14 May 2024 23:45 UTC+08:00 Unknown 14 May 2024 23:53 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 15 May 2024 20:28 UTC+08:00 One of the most important economic data points is set to release in 1 minutes - Inflation (CPI). The market is expecting a 3. 4% readingCompared to 3. 5% last time. Let's see some fireworks! Unknown 15 May 2024 20:29 UTC+08:00 Another time where the PPI comes in extremely hot and US stock markets runs up. The last 3-4 times this happened we dump on the following CPI. I expect a rally in pre-markets and into the data release but a fade into the close. Coffee was removed from CPI metrics which makes me believe Inflation is indeed hot. Cleveland Nowcasting which generally has been a good precursor to the actual data has headline coming in at 3. 5%. Inflation is reaccelerating no doubt and I believe we get a 2nd run of Inflation like the 1970s and an eventual hard landing now after the election shennanigans. Unknown 15 May 2024 20:32 UTC+08:00 BREAKING: April CPI inflation rate falls to 3. 4%, in-line with expectations of 3. 4%. Core CPI inflation was 3. 6%, in-line with expectations of 3. 6%. RealisedGains Investing 15 May 2024 20:48 UTC+08:00 As stated, think we get a rally and fade into the close. This is not very jarring numbers. Not buying US equities here still aside from my tiny gambling positions in $CLOV, but selling credit spreads. I have rebought some $BABA today and yesterday as I was forced assigned previously to sell what I sold from my entry 68 at these prices. The 7% dip here is enough for me to bite. $NIO $JD $PDD still performing for me! Still selling far out covered calls on these. Unknown 15 May 2024 20:58 UTC+08:00 ^^^ Still the better play. Long bonds, gold, silver and China. Why buy overvalued US equities when the risk-free rate is so high on bonds, and 20Y treasuries can also appreciate in anticipation of easing conditions. Still in my $SLV from $24 and $TLT from $88. Only thing I have added back is $BABA. China is also starting to print, only difference is that they're actually undervalued unlike the US due to the China ADR Risk Premium basing it off either the DCF/PE models. Unknown 15 May 2024 21:11 UTC+08:00 Up to 3000 shares on $NIO now from my initial 300. (Mix of outright and some Poor Man's Covered Call; experimenting with a Slingshot/Wheel strategy to assign shares) Average buy at 5. 13 now. Dips are for buying in China. Still early imo. Re-allocated 1000 shares on $BABA. Bought my initial position at 71 sold it at 80. Rebought during the Israel strike at 69 sold it at 79. Rebought yesterday at 78. Finally mainly on $KWEB from $24 $TLT from $88 and $SLV from $24 still. Only US positions are $PYPL $META $CLOV right now. Unknown 15 May 2024 21:23 UTC+08:00 If you're bullish China like me, there's KWEB, CWEB, YINN with 1x, 2x, 3x Leveraged respectfully. I choose the un-levered former because I have spare capital to deploy, I don't want to bother with carry costs and expense ratios, and I like the options tape volume to sell options. If I were trading news speculatively, I'd go for A50 on CFDs. I have some $BYD as well as I think it's really fighting for top dog in the EV space against Tesla. Starting to see it a lot on roads in Singapore and where I travel. RealisedGains Investing 17 May 2024 09:32 UTC+08:00 1000 shares of $BABA i bought at 78 yesterday (^scroll up) Now 87 👀. My original 3000 shares were from 68. Clean 9k USD yesterday and 40k USD up overall. My portfolio is literally hard carried by China, mainly because it's 70% China and 30% Gold/Silver/Bonds. I am trying to invest on valuations and $BABA is one of the only companies in the market I see with reasonable valuations. I still believe!! Selling covered calls far out and with ridiculous strikes as usual, not trying to get assigned. Unknown 17 May 2024 09:39 UTC+08:00 Good bite yesterday to add more $BABA. I principally only buy on dips. All money printers are on and every country is basically outcompeting to devalue against their currency against another for competitive advantage. Once again, comes at the price of citizens losing their purchasing power. A lot of this has to do with the oil trade. Oil declines >>> 10-year Treasury yield followsOil down + 10-year Treasury yield down >>> Markets upKind of why you don't want to be long oil or short bonds. Hence, my thesis for a China Rally and Long US Bonds at least till June FOMC. Unknown 17 May 2024 09:48 UTC+08:00 I will once again still warn you about the US market right now. Yes, they are printing but this comes at the price of a heavily devaluing dollar; even when you peg it against the SMCI world or SG 30 Index. This is the same with the Yuan & Yen most recently. I also think the flows in $SMCI and $NVDA have the current potential to offer a stock split soon! A stock split offers smaller retail investors an opportunity to invest but also provides new exit liquidity. Generally, this is when the market retraces as when $TSLA led the reversal down in 2021 after their split. Not a hater, just being objective - that there are easier trades. Laser-eyes with China, cautiously bullish with US. RealisedGains Investing 17 May 2024 13:41 UTC+08:00 Gave y'all silver $SLV on 3rd May 2024; I believe this breaches ATH along with gold but much higher based on the lagging ratios. 2nd largest holding behind my China positions. Think US equities risk is too high right now. Unknown 17 May 2024 13:47 UTC+08:00 My $XAU gold target is 3-3. 5k, but minimally 2. 6k. I think this comes along with an equities crash. It's been in this channel too long. Silver $SLV just has a higher beta and it normally catches up 6 months later. Lumber to gold ratio helps to predict up upcoming market correction as investors are flocking towards safe heaven. If the ratio plunge below zero it might show imminent market correction. $SPY could run to 540 to 600 based on the channel but this appears to be an election year blow off top as they print to erase debt, I would not direct short with current macro. RealisedGains Investing 17 May 2024 22:51 UTC+08:00 Silver $SLV to $50. Gold $GLD to $2600. We run with the bulls 🐂 $BABA already at $90. Doing great 🤙🏼 RealisedGains Investing 17 May 2024 23:09 UTC+08:00 If y'all want a potentially stupid play right now. I think when $HSI China, $XAU Gold, $TLT Bond runs as I have repeatedly mentioned here till June FOMC. There is a heavy risk potential of US equities falling here. $QQQ and US tech to me will fall and mean revert down eventually. Drunkenmiller has already repositioned into Russ2000 or the small caps as laggards and sold his $NVDA shares. Once again, I am very cautious with my direct short timings. I don't play the $VIX $UVXY these days as I feel they suppress these. I am currently in a bear call spread on $QQQ and US equities. RealisedGains Investing 18 May 2024 01:46 UTC+08:00 People tell me Silver $SLV is slow and I should buy Bitcoin but it's literally done 40% in the last 3 months when I first talked about it and $BTC has done nothing. That being said, I of course am bullish Bitcoin. I just like to find exponential returns. This was a pretty easy trade since gold ran already and Silver started showing signs of strength. Just know this chart is a 20 year long chart and people who bought Silver in 2011 are still not recovered while banks like UBS short it. Gold $XAU has ALREADY breached ATHs. Silver $SLV is next! My TP could even be something ridiculous like 59 if we do get a black swan event like 09. RealisedGains Investing 20 May 2024 10:16 UTC+08:00 Unknown 20 May 2024 10:16 UTC+08:00 18. 7% up so far on my $XAG $SLV Silver. No longer adding here. China is buying. Major shifts in terms of currency wars. I am likely selling some of my $BABA on open today as I think it's too heavy of an allocation and I want to look for other opportunities for faster gains - ate the majority of the run-up already. In other news $NVDA reports earnings this Wednesday. Other than that there's only FOMC speakers the next few days in terms of economic data. Expecting a muted week, still holding my $QQQ $SPY bear call spreads as well! RealisedGains Investing 23 May 2024 02:05 UTC+08:00 $SPY $QQQ $BABA down. What did I say 🫶🏼 On vacation right now, but we printing! 🫡 Trading is the best life! RealisedGains Investing 29 May 2024 21:14 UTC+08:00 Still going down. On vacation right now, but still holding shorts 🤙🏼 RealisedGains Investing 1 June 2024 16:42 UTC+08:00 $SPY $QQQ US Market ran up yesterday on the close. Doesn't affect my bear spreads too much. Still think there's downside to US equities! Looking to re-enter into my China Equities slowly now. I think $TLT's pullback is also good for cash secured puts and a buy soon. In other news, Toobit is now closed - so it was a right move shifting back to Binance and Dexes last month. Will aggressively trade the remainder of this account till June 30th I guess! RealisedGains Investing 4 June 2024 17:52 UTC+08:00 Held this $CVNA short^ from above for a month now. 30k size from 120. 250 Shares. 1st TP is $84-82, expecting a bounce there. Still some ways to go! Unknown 4 June 2024 17:54 UTC+08:00 Still holding my bear spreads on US equities $SPY, waiting to re-enter my China long entries. Think gold & crypto is chop and neutral while US equities go down while China continues the rally in this next 2-3 months. Going to punt back in on the $BABA I sold soon. RealisedGains Investing 5 June 2024 00:40 UTC+08:00 The Indian Stock Market Crashes 🩸The Indian Stock Market crashed today with one of the largest volatility move down in four years plunging 7% after Modi wins. Shares in Adani Enterprise plunge 25pc as prime minister’s party risks reduced majority. This marks as the WORST stock market dip on the day of the elections in the last 20 years. It's also the steepest decline of NIFTY & Bombay SENSEX since the Covid crash of 2020. Trading was suspended twice when the S&P BSE Sensex fell more than the 10% limit, the first time in the exchange’s history. This is reminiscent of what happened with the S&P during the 2020 Covid Crash as well. It's important to note that there is likely continuation to this move as did back then. History does not repeat but often rhymes. Why does this matter?I believe in the theory that markets move in boom and bust cycles. Liquidity will have to flow elsewhere as with Balance of Payments, Surpluses and Deficits. I am still betting on China. Source: Indian Markets Crash June 4th RealisedGains Investing 5 June 2024 00:42 UTC+08:00 Indian Markets crashing massively. China Markets chopping. US markets and equities largely not moving due to no data these few days. Unemployment claims on Thursday should likely be moot also. I believe FOMC in June 11-12 should see us holding - Would be interesting if the Dot plot for 2024 policy rate goes to only one 25bp cut (from 3 forecasted previously). I think Banks and Bonds will benefit a lot from a cut eventually (Still buying into $TLT and $BMO Canadian/Montreal Bank on the dips, think Trudeau is messing up his country)Hence, also why I am opting for small shorts on $CVNA while holding larger bear call spreads on $QQQ and $SPY still. Been holding all these for a month now! Will start sell cash secured puts on $BABA soon! RealisedGains Investing 6 June 2024 03:51 UTC+08:00 BREAKING: Bank of Canada cuts interest rates by 25 BPS, the first in the G7 to do so. Might be a precursor of what's to come with the June FOMC. This will likely lead to a 2nd run of Inflation and a Arthur Burns > Paul Volker scenario when it gets out of hand again. $BABA up 2% since yesterday. Bank of Montreal drops upon rate cuts. I think $BMO $SLV and $TLT are still a long if we get more cuts. Basically, long bonds, precious metals and banks. RealisedGains Investing 6 June 2024 06:00 UTC+08:00 First Human Death from new Bird Flu Strain H5N2S&P to all-time highs carried 42% by $NVDA earnings, Canada cutting rates, Taiwan-China tensions and FOMC next week and the first human death from new bird flu strain H5N2. Reminder, Nvidia's 10-for-1 stock split occurs June 7 after market close. Lots to look out for this week! Will share more on the analysis channel. Source: Avian Influenza No Bueno RealisedGains Investing 6 June 2024 06:00 UTC+08:00 June FOMC Pre-fight Weigh-insPrima Facie, the US should cut due to bank pressures with bank rates already reflecting lowered FFRs along with election year posturing. However, with Reverse Repo running out and China selling U. S. Treasuries and Yellen having to pressure Japan (2nd largest holder of debt) to not dump treasuries at the cost of their own dying currency. There is a lot of pressure to keep rates high. Canada's cut is different as they are forced to save an economy which is 90% housing. Core inflation going crazy with a plummeting Loonie at the cost of saving the wealthy land owners. There's a reason Trudeau tested bank account seizers in Canada. Final Take:I believe we hold rates and there is a chance Every nation in the world will be cutting rates while the US holds them. This will cause currencies to collapse while the Dollar skyrockets, forcing nations to sell US Treasuries significantly below face value. Think the US still eventually cuts soon in the subsequent meetings. RealisedGains Investing 6 June 2024 13:44 UTC+08:00 Call me crazy but I am getting bearish US equities again for a larger drop in the next few weeks. NVDA stock split on low outstanding shares propping up a narrow equities market, US Oil prices dropping 10%, Precious metals rallying, and finally rate cuts beginning the steepening of the deepest inverted yield curve in history. Once again, don't have to short, but I see the danger here. $TLT $SLV $SH still works. No $VIX for me. RealisedGains Investing 6 June 2024 21:56 UTC+08:00 ECB cuts rates. $NVDA reversed a 6% gain pre-market to go negative in the last 15 minutes! Wild 👀 Volatility is back! RealisedGains Investing 7 June 2024 00:02 UTC+08:00 $TLT $SLV $XAU rallying while $SPY $NVDA slowing down as I predicted. I think a $NVDA stock split is bearish. Further given it carries most of the index right now. It is just propped up due to low float. Granted, $NVDA does have value and should not be compared to Cisco in the Dotcom Bubble, these levels are still extremely frothy. Remember what happened when $AAPL and $TSLA split a few years back? (Chart above) RealisedGains Investing 7 June 2024 00:41 UTC+08:00 I drew this 50k Demand Zone for $BTC a few months back. It was never hit. . . I am just saying it's not entirely impossible if we get a crash and liquidity needs to get pulled out of Crypto. One final move to 64k might be enough. I still see $BTC at ATH by EOY. RealisedGains Investing 7 June 2024 01:45 UTC+08:00 22 Hours to the Biggest Financial Event of our Lives 😂 $NVDA stock split, $GME short squeeze. Roaring Kitty going live after 3 years. What a time to be alive 🥳 RealisedGains Investing 7 June 2024 02:25 UTC+08:00 BREAKING: “Roaring Kitty” is now up over $300 million on his GameStop position. If $GME hits $70, “Roaring Kitty” will be a billionaire. Why this time is different?(1) This time Keith has capital, with added notoriety and credence from the previous run and media publicity. (2) This is after a stock split and hedge funds short sellers still chose to Naked short. My advice is to not chase this. Good to watch. I only have a small sum invested for entertainment. RealisedGains Investing 7 June 2024 02:47 UTC+08:00 Betting on Bird Flu & Bank Failures?As mentioned earlier, I think my price target for $SLV Silver is something ridiculous like $59. I gave the call to buy Silver at $24 & it's trading at $31 now. My $TLT $SLV $XAG doing exceptionally well still!Sounds abit toxic but I am also watching dark pools for counters that might spike if this bird flu H5N1 spreads, notably $NVAX $CVAC $MRNA $PFE. Pfizer has seen over $300 million in dark pool purchases in the past 2 days. Unknown 7 June 2024 02:47 UTC+08:00 Unknown 7 June 2024 02:47 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 8 June 2024 00:36 UTC+08:00 Roaring Kitty is LIVE RealisedGains Investing 8 June 2024 00:58 UTC+08:00 Just released his 350 Million position right now. Unknown 8 June 2024 01:01 UTC+08:00 just today alone he's down $237M - gotta at least respect his balls. man always had the cajones! Unknown 8 June 2024 01:14 UTC+08:00 Keith's entry on $GME is 21. 2 and it's slowly creeping there moving at 27. 5 now. $GME is a stock with a massive public float sold short. With essentially 32m in shares over a float of 277. 14 Mil available $GME shares. If he exercises his calls, Keith Gill would own about 6-10% of the float 🐐 Truly a 💎🙌🏻 moment. RealisedGains Investing 8 June 2024 02:11 UTC+08:00 I've been bearish $BTC at 71. 2k. I'll post positions later. Watching 64k support but won't rule out a deeper move if this bird flu or any war develops. Wild times indeed. I'm normally very selective with my direct short timings - I was mostly on covered calls and spreads the previous weeks as I mentioned. I am short now. Risky ofc. But we'll see. RealisedGains Investing 8 June 2024 02:52 UTC+08:00 Waiting to buy more Silver $SLV and long bonds $TLT before the moon mission when rates cut and yield curve uninverts. Looking at the $27 region, HTF demand zone and HVN. If it goes to green bar, I am bidding. I am still holding a portion but I want to buy this for my long-term portfolio for balancing. RealisedGains Investing 8 June 2024 03:12 UTC+08:00 Some levels for my $FLOKI $PEPE short in the images (Green box is support). Will close and buy $BTC at around 64k if that holds well. Going to sleep 🫡 Unknown 8 June 2024 03:12 UTC+08:00 Unknown 8 June 2024 03:12 UTC+08:00 Unknown 8 June 2024 03:12 UTC+08:00 Unknown 8 June 2024 03:20 UTC+08:00 Bird flu is spreading and war tensions are getting high. Honestly no point buying bird flu stocks so pre-emptively as even if a pandemic happens, it would literally stiffle production, and spread fear such that money would be pulled out of the system anyway. Same goes for China stocks & Precious Metal, I like them for valuations but I did take some profits and sold calls to hedge from my initial 300k shares in $BABA $KWEB $SLV already. Will look to buy more after the US equities market dips as I believe there's a contagion effect. Patience! 🤙🏼 RealisedGains Investing 8 June 2024 21:21 UTC+08:00 What's happening with Tesla$TSLA currently is in one of the tightest bands and wedges. Aside from the broader market being overbought, massive competition from China in the EV space, and rate cuts happening. With the Tesla shareholder's meeting 1 week away to decide on the 56 Billion Dollars Remuneration Package, it’s decision time for the stock. If shareholders vote no and Musk goes, price tanks. I can even see $TSLA going to the $60-80 support if this happens. If Musk stays, The cult props up the share price. But you give him the shares and he might still dump the other portion of his stock anyway and tanks the price. Both cases look bearish to me. I am just being objective here. I am not a perma-bear, I even took the longs from $130 to $200 if you scroll up. With this whole time it’s been chop, I still made money elsewhere in the meantime and now I am finally re-looking at $TSLA. 2 Plays here:(1) Long Vega with a Bull Strangle, to bet on a volatility move. (Safer)(2) Buy OTM Calls or Puts (Yolo)With volatility so cheap here, I might even think a yolo play to buy OTM Puts at $80 is good just as insurance. A 20th Sep $85 Put costs only $0. 40Source: Decision Time for Tesla Unknown 8 June 2024 21:31 UTC+08:00 TLDR; $BYD > $TSLAI was long $TSLA from $140 to $200and then I flipped short from $195 targeting $165-175 region which we are at now. I have mentioned I closed during both instancesOnce the chunk of the move is done, you simply get out. Sure I could have held that $195 short, but that's capital I don't have to deploy in other trades in my Silver, China plays. This week is the time to look at $TSLA again. I am sorry to perma bulls, but the headwinds might be too strong on this one. I think $TSLA has ran its course and a lot of perceived value is only because of Musk at the helm. If he leaves, I expect the shares to tank - I am looking at under $80 frankly. For context, Koguan Leo is the 3rd largest individual shareholder of Tesla. He lives in Singapore and also voted no to Elon's pay package inciting him to leave. RealisedGains Investing 10 June 2024 01:49 UTC+08:00 NVIDIA splits today$NVDA has gone through 5 stock splits that preceded a major correction1999: 2-for-1 split > Correction2000: 2-for-1 split > Correction2001: 2-for-1 split > Dot Com2006: 2-for-1 split > Housing Crisis 2021: 4-for-1 split > Covid-19 PandemicIs this coincidental rather than causal? A lot has to do with NVIDIA being a high-beta, high growth tech stock. Hence, whenever the market gets too frothy, boards naturally opt to split. $NVDA 10/1 split will make the float from 2. 5 to 25 billion shares. NVIDIA is severely hard-carrying the indices right now. To put things into perspective…NVIDIA Market Capitalisation: $2. 97 trillion Brazil GDP: $2. 2 trillionThe US and NVIDIA currently still has the ability to “transform” ersatz asset bubble wealth into real wealth, because it can “steal” other nations’ productive capacity via dollar hegemony. Is this a bubble? Idts, but it’s overpriced due to limited supply and slow competitors to disrupt the monopoly. RealisedGains Investing 10 June 2024 14:09 UTC+08:00 $NVDA just split. Can't trade right now as pre-markets have not open but institutions are able to still do OTC. Should be a volatile pre-market session, will have to watch flows. RealisedGains Investing 10 June 2024 17:34 UTC+08:00 Elections & Rate Cuts happening Globally but the devil is in the details!We have just seen Mexico's Election, followed by India, and now Eu and next UK on July 4th followed by the US. If you're noticing a trend that rates are cut right as election comes, you're right!The risk premiums of France, Italy, Austria, and Spain over Germany are widening significantly because the EU is not only coming under pressure from the outside following the growth of right-wing populists, but internal cracks are also becoming apparent. Bond Prices across Europe are rising today. In a matter of who cuts first - by the US Feds delaying cuts till their elections, it holds their bonds suppressed (see TLT) and allows the dollar to strengthen further. If the dollar rips, guess what happens to risk-assets like Bitcoin and US Tech for now? RealisedGains Personal Finance 🇸🇬 10.06.2024 17:34:12 10 June 2024 17:34 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Personal Finance 🇸🇬 10.06.2024 17:34:12 10 June 2024 17:34 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 11 June 2024 10:36 UTC+08:00 Still holding crypto shorts. Not an easy hold by any means as well! Dollar is ripping as I mentioned. Key decision week. Will decide if I flip long later in the week! Unknown 11 June 2024 10:36 UTC+08:00 Unknown 11 June 2024 10:41 UTC+08:00 Waiting for 64k $BTC ideally. Low volume node here so I don't expect anything. However Asian ICT Kill Zone hours sees China reversing US gains. No big news these few days and record low volume on equities the last few weeks. Either the TGA is drying up or something's not right. . . will research flows further. Unknown 11 June 2024 10:45 UTC+08:00 Will close some at 65. 9-66. 1k $BTC 🤙🏼 RealisedGains Investing 11 June 2024 19:04 UTC+08:00 Closing 20% $BTC shorts here^. Intending to buy some spot at 61-62k, and leverage longs in the 50ks - Same plan! RealisedGains Investing 11 June 2024 23:50 UTC+08:00 Here's a history of the most recent stock split performance of the Mag 7 to give you an idea where $NVDA might be headed in the interim:$TSLA Aug 25th 2022: Next 6 days -12%$AAPL Aug 28th 2020: Next 3 days +10%, Following 3 days -20%$AMZN June 3rd 2022: Next 6 days -21%$GOOG July 18th 2022: Next 3 days +3%, Following 4 days -10%$MSFT: Feb 18th 2003: Next 17 days -10%Even when shorting you don't hold the position more than 1-2 weeks. Just because drops happen a lot faster than climbs!Still bullish after this long flush. Extreme worst case for $BTC would be in the 40-50s imo. Up only after that! Unknown 11 June 2024 23:57 UTC+08:00 Kinda inclined to hold these shorts through FOMC but only responsible to start taking some profits soon! 🫡 Hope you guys are saved from this bloodbath - getting slightly nasty! Unknown 11 June 2024 23:57 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 12 June 2024 00:13 UTC+08:00 $BTC shortEntry: 71. 2kTP1 Closed 20% 65. 9-66. 1kTP2 40% 61-62kTP3 40% 53. 9-54. 5kFlipping Long on Low Leverage with Tight Stops at TP2/TP3, probably buying $SOL & some L1s as well! Unknown 12 June 2024 00:24 UTC+08:00 $TSLA finally broke out of the tight Bollinger Bands, we still have the remuneraction package decision, CPI & FOMC. $NVDA also just starting to break down with the broader markets still carried by a short squeeze on $AAPL after their WWDC event yesterday. I am leaning down on both as an initial reaction. I hope Musk stays for the sake of Tesla though. . . I am going to go shopping soon in a few weeks (for stocks) 🙂‍↔️ Is this the male equivalent of retail therapy? 🛍️ Unknown 12 June 2024 00:29 UTC+08:00 Just to be clear. I am longing $BTC at 61-62k &53. 9-54. 5kI am not longing here! I am just taking some profits on principle. Not because I don't expect it to go lower. I just like taking profits at support!I gave you 65. 9 - 66. 1k & it DID just bounce - There's nothing wrong with taking profits. Just my style!English or Spanish? Whoeever moves first is 🦄 Unknown 12 June 2024 00:31 UTC+08:00 Then again my style is not for everybody but the point is to take some profits. Sure I could day trade this move from 66. 1 to 67. 1-67. 5k $BTC now but I am lazy. RealisedGains Investing 12 June 2024 02:00 UTC+08:00 Maybe something like this for $BTC - Could see 68. 5-68. 8k, but I think we have at least a 67. 1k from here as I said! CPI/FOMC will bring more volatility. RealisedGains Investing 12 June 2024 02:54 UTC+08:00 My tentative playbook for $BTC (might change) but I see us tapping 57-64k for the final drop and then we go to 105-115k thereafter. Unknown 12 June 2024 03:07 UTC+08:00 Sharing some of my thought process with a friend as to why I shorted 71. 2k and called for this TP at 66k and the bounce. There was a lot of ersatz support along the way but I chose the one where most leveraged longs die (a 5-10% drop on $BTC and 20-40% on alts liquidates most leveraged positions of 10-20x; the default). Supports are chosen on a combination of demand zones, liquidity, dark pools and max pain options. I can't say for sure where is the true bottom as I cannot be predicative or am privy as to how inefficiently markets are priced and what CPI/FOMC brings this week. I have always just made my best guess. Why do we need to tap lows before the run-up?While the financial markets are not a zero-sum game and are priced upwards due to stimulus and irresponsible J Pow prints, they cannot allow high leveraged longs to run-up on derivatives, and they have to lower longs by either funding/decay or a liquidation hunt. In the long-run, due to the nature of Bitcoin, we are destined for 100k+. Unknown 12 June 2024 03:07 UTC+08:00 Unknown 12 June 2024 03:07 UTC+08:00 Unknown 12 June 2024 03:13 UTC+08:00 Unknown 12 June 2024 03:20 UTC+08:00 More memes is the only correct answer tbh 😂 $GME Gamestop is running up now btw. RealisedGains Investing 13 June 2024 03:28 UTC+08:00 Soft CPI, Dovish FOMCBREAKING: CPI comes in very soft, FOMC leaves rates unchanged. Fed Chair Powell says the Fed does not have high confidence in their forecasts. More importantly, officials are mixed on the dot plot with 2, 1 & no rate cuts for this year all still on the table. Should be range and chop for awhile before we climb the wall of worry. I like $XAU gold and $XAG silver more here tbh. Unknown 13 June 2024 03:32 UTC+08:00 Closed $PEPE shorts and $BTC shorts yesterday. Still in $FLOKI shorts. Unknown 13 June 2024 03:33 UTC+08:00 Still waiting for my TPs at Green Zone! Unknown 13 June 2024 03:33 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 13 June 2024 03:49 UTC+08:00 When in doubt, zoom out. If $SPY fills the gap down back to 535 and reverses today's gains tomorrow that would be extremely bearish along with crypto. I would even shift my price targets down for $SPY to 506-510 and $BTC to 58-62k from my 64k. I did not think we would wick back to 70k again. I only went so far as to anticipate 68. 5k~ alas it is a news day! Unknown 13 June 2024 03:49 UTC+08:00 Unknown 13 June 2024 03:52 UTC+08:00 The Bitcoin GamePlanFor $BTC, D went a little further than I thought. . . However, I got A (72k to 66k), B (67. 5k) and C (67. 1k) exactly. Time for D to play out. I am probably not going to catch the 64k knife considering D went all the way to 70k to tap liquidity, likely means E is going deeper. . . Unknown 13 June 2024 03:54 UTC+08:00 I think TP2 for $BTC levels at 61-62k makes more sense to flip long, but I would spread the orders wider given how wickish futures liquidation engines can be. Ok goodnight. Hope we alive tomorrow 🫡 Unknown 13 June 2024 03:55 UTC+08:00 Rationale is because I want to not have it *edited* on Telegram for transparency. I also have OCD & don't like typos. Free chat, quit bitching. 😂 RealisedGains Investing 13 June 2024 23:53 UTC+08:00 Soon. . . Unknown 13 June 2024 23:55 UTC+08:00 Whole move $BTC playing out perfectly tbh 72k > 66. 1k (Exact)66. 1k > 69k (Exact)Final Wave down now! Unknown 13 June 2024 23:56 UTC+08:00 Same charts. Same plans. Scroll up. Unknown 13 June 2024 23:56 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 15 June 2024 01:26 UTC+08:00 😋👀 charting pretty damn good these few years - maybe lucky. Unknown 15 June 2024 01:30 UTC+08:00 I am TP-ing my Altcoin shorts when $BTC hits 64k, 61-59k as I said. 2 Regions. I already calculated where these should be (beta-adjusted). RealisedGains Investing 18 June 2024 14:41 UTC+08:00 64k $BTC today. Closed all crypto shorts! Unknown 18 June 2024 14:43 UTC+08:00 Done here. 50% down. All profits taken! Unknown 18 June 2024 14:45 UTC+08:00 Started from the bottom (top), now we here 🫡 Held for 10 days total on $PEPE $FLOKI. TPs all hit!Did scalp my $BTC moves as well! Unknown 18 June 2024 14:49 UTC+08:00 I said I would buy $BTC at 64k so I did. Only spot here! Bing Chilling. RealisedGains Investing 18 June 2024 15:05 UTC+08:00 Same Bitcoin Gameplan64k for small $BTC spot buys. 58-62k for leveraged buys. This is my gameplan. Sticking to it. Using my own style of risk management. Follow at your own risk, NFA. 👍🏼 RealisedGains Investing 24 June 2024 11:36 UTC+08:00 $BTC at 62k now. Been saving the ammo for this one, hence only went small spot buys. Don't think lows are in yet. One final drop! Elliot Wave 5 🫡Same chart. Unchanged. Dollar $DXY rising over the weekend would imply equities see further pullback as well! Unknown 24 June 2024 11:48 UTC+08:00 Flipping longs for $BTC on low leverage here at TP2/3. Gave these levels at 71. 2k ^. Don't say I didn't share! 🫡 RealisedGains Investing 24 June 2024 18:09 UTC+08:00 Closed $BTC shorts. Laddering longs for $BTC at 61. 3-61. 4k here. If we die, we die. At least a dead cat bounce soon, many longs liquidated already. RealisedGains Investing 24 June 2024 19:32 UTC+08:00 Orders set since 11th June 2024. Slowly laddering. . . Will only start crying around 53-55k $BTC. Best of luck my fellow bulltards ✌🏼😅 Unknown 24 June 2024 19:34 UTC+08:00 Max Pain at (2)^ RealisedGains Investing 25 June 2024 11:47 UTC+08:00 Still in $BTC longs! Went to 58k earlier this morning and I added a bit there. Average entry now 60. 9k. RealisedGains Investing 25 June 2024 23:04 UTC+08:00 Hold. RealisedGains Investing 27 June 2024 22:20 UTC+08:00 Minimally 64/65k target for $BTC to close levered positions. Unemployment claims came out under forecast today 233k vs 236k. No change in my thesis. RealisedGains Investing 1 July 2024 11:34 UTC+08:00 Added more $BTC at 60. 2k, still holding! RealisedGains Investing 1 July 2024 23:00 UTC+08:00 Another month of contracting manufacturing PMI just came out 10pm today, weaker/lower-than-expectations PMI generally imply economic weakness. We need a weaker dollar to Kickstart manufacturing production activity, as US exports could finally become more attractive for foreign nations ☕️This is temporarily bearish for dollar-backed assets as we are likely to see further continuation of the sell-off in equities. Crypto is likely to do one more sweep of the lows in this case! RealisedGains Investing 2 July 2024 17:18 UTC+08:00 I am closing half $BTC positions now. Chair Powell speaks tonight. Feels a bit sus with equities starting to stall at these levels and dollar strengthening. Will look for re-longs under 60k. RealisedGains Investing 2 July 2024 23:43 UTC+08:00 Open Interest, OI for $BTC still going up at these levels, implying accumulation if we are ranging. I am likely buying back 61. 4k-59k to load up more for the final rally up. As long as the 55k macro level doesn't break, still bullish in the mid-term (I don't see it going there right now with nothing bad happening in the world). Still buying! Unknown 2 July 2024 23:49 UTC+08:00 Also nice that $SPY $QQQ is finally seeing some distribution into $TSLA etc from the $NVDA $AAPL dominance the last few months. Makes this rally slightly healthier. I am not shorting this equities market but still think it's overvalued on Forward PE and most DCF metrics even. I am actually going to be accumulating $TLT soon as I think 20Y T-bills will benefit from QE incoming. The US cuts will come later, but they will come!Refer to my post above on hedging. Unknown 2 July 2024 23:50 UTC+08:00 $TLT under $90 is starting to get low actually! Also $BABA I added some at $72 finally! My last play was my 3k shares from 69 which I was forced to sell at 80. RealisedGains Investing 3 July 2024 15:56 UTC+08:00 Same chart on $BTC as above, there's probably a smaller elliot wave within the Wave 5 down. I've talked about this final Wave 5 down before. When the stochastic oscillators validate the swing failure top then we can potentially push for the final move to 55k. Bullish as long as we hold that HTF support. I presume $SPY US Equities should do a blow-off top then as well. Coincides with fractals and risk assets bottoms likely with CPI/PPI news on July 11/12th. Heavily dependent on the Inflation Data having to show slowing. Unknown 3 July 2024 16:01 UTC+08:00 Good close on $BTC longs here. Will be slow to deploy my re-entries. Not really here to spoonfeed anybody since I am not charging and I am just here to shitpost and journal my journey for now. However if you're still losing money trading. My only advice would be to do 1 push up for every bad trade. At least get jacked bois 😂💪🏻 Unknown 3 July 2024 16:01 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 3 July 2024 18:37 UTC+08:00 Would long 55-56k $BTC depending on PA but my stink bids are actually 52k if you recall above! Unknown 3 July 2024 18:38 UTC+08:00 My orders are here. Don't say I never spoonfeed. Please don't frontrun me 🖕😂 Unknown 3 July 2024 18:40 UTC+08:00 ^ Thesis as to Stinkbids. May or may not hit there but those are the prices of High Volume Support. If PA consolidates and Guppy MAs flip bullish sure I'll enter on confirmation. Otherwise I am happy to wait. Learned from years of experience not to catch falling knives too early!My own style. NFA. RealisedGains Investing 3 July 2024 22:41 UTC+08:00 Feels like risk-off again. Gold, Silver, Long Bonds, China Rallying. Sectorial-based EV outperforming against Tech; with $TSLA $NIO $BYD rallying against a slowing $NVDA $AAPL and the dollar weakening. Important to learn scenario-based trading ^ I talked about it before! RealisedGains Investing 4 July 2024 18:14 UTC+08:00 Downtrend validated already as I said here. We are going lower on $BTC. Unknown 4 July 2024 18:19 UTC+08:00 If only someone told you $BTC was going down to 53-55k from 71. 2k. . . Oh wait I did 😅 even all the small moves inbetween! RealisedGains Investing 4 July 2024 18:40 UTC+08:00 Ranking my Favourite Financial GurusIf you're ever curious which financial gurus I endorse 😂 While I have had some good success, I do all my learning strictly on my own. There are however some I like more than others!Link: I'd like to shoutout absolutely nobody, DYOR. RealisedGains Investing 4 July 2024 22:55 UTC+08:00 Adding more longs. Think temporarily bottom here. Mildly inebriated, just scalping for fun. Unknown 4 July 2024 22:56 UTC+08:00 Targeting 58. 3-58. 5k on $BTC. Did not even use my indicators. Pure degenerate play. RealisedGains Investing 5 July 2024 01:23 UTC+08:00 Hit! Closed half, trailing SL remainder. RealisedGains Investing RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 01:32 UTC+08:00 Granted I was a little late, stacking $BTC orders at 57. 2-57. 4k after validation when I should have entered more at 56k levels (original plan) for a better entry. Was out today and I was drinking. I guess that's also what makes trading sustainable. I still need to workout, have a life, but I lock-in when I need to. Can't catch every move perfectly! RealisedGains Investing RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 01:54 UTC+08:00 Unknown RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 01:57 UTC+08:00 Hope y'all don't mind the occasional shit post. Polls are all anonymous by the way, I just want to know the level of skibiddi in the chat. 👻 RealisedGains Investing RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 09:39 UTC+08:00 SL hit on remainder for $BTC. However, I did close on the top at 58. 5k as I predicted. Fun scalp! 😅 RealisedGains Investing RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 09:55 UTC+08:00 That being said, I have started to buy about 30-40% margin on spot on $BTC average buy 57. 2k now already. I am not levered, will only be at 52-53k. I have already profited a decent amount from my initial short and scalps so I do not care. I was just playing with futures while out drinking yesterday. Hence, a smaller size. GLHF, trade smart! Helped with what I could 🫡 RealisedGains Investing RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 11:03 UTC+08:00 55k $BTC now! This is not a drill. It's a discount! 😀 Aiming for 53. 9-54. 5k to flip. Same plan ^ Unknown RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 11:06 UTC+08:00 At MBS doing Yoga right now, update later. Stay zen 🧘 Waiting for orders to fill but probably even 52k $BTC if I can during a scam wick down. RealisedGains Investing RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 12:22 UTC+08:00 Full target reached. We are here. Now or never. Unknown RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 12:24 UTC+08:00 The chart is fulfilled. Now run it back turbo! 🚀 RealisedGains Investing RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 13:41 UTC+08:00 These were my numbers set ^ since 11th June 2024 to close my 71. 2k $BTC short and flip long with average perp buys at 53. 8k right now. Not down yet, and I have profits to buffer as I said. Today is a day to watch. I will not be adding much more. Unknown RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 13:50 UTC+08:00 Interesting how the Dollar $DXY is weakening. I sus-ed out the move to close my longs during that Powell speech (above^) where he leaned dovish and posited starting the easing cycle later this year; leading to a strong reversal down of the dollar strength. Crypto has since depegged from tradfi equities market with the stock market $SPY $QQQ still rallying while Crypto $BTC falls with Dollar Strength and Hegemony. Is this the time where we consider Crypto's potential status as a reserve currency instead of a risk asset? Unknown RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 13:52 UTC+08:00 TLDR; Crypto is more correlated to the dollar now as opposed to risk tech assets. Additionally, it's a simple case of more supply than demand causing downward price action with Mt Gox, ETFs, Halving, Germany Central Banks selling Crypto inducing selling pressure on Crypto. $BTC bottoms when $SPY $QQQ tops in that case. RealisedGains Investing RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 14:44 UTC+08:00 Looking at 57. 8k - 58. 1k Supply Zone for $BTC as of now. Will take a nap and reassess tonight. Friday's are normally low volume days. Could see a relief rally!Everyone calling for 40k now at the lows of 53k but everyone calling for 100k at 70k. Human Psychology is a funny thing! RealisedGains Investing RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 21:47 UTC+08:00 Holding longs. Unknown RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 21:48 UTC+08:00 Once again, entries should have been better but I entered more on validation. Otherwise it should have been 54k flat but whatever. I was close enough and still up. RealisedGains Investing RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 23:08 UTC+08:00 Soon we close. . . Probably goes back down after this to form a bigger double bottom on $BTC. It's never just one drop. RealisedGains Investing RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 23:27 UTC+08:00 Gonna consider some of my levered $BTC positions earlier at B, 57. 3-58. 1k just based off PA, I don't like this move. Too fast. Not a true bottom. Needs fear for a more prolonged period. Seems like just a relief rally on a VIX crush Friday with dip buyers on low volume and no economic data. I don't think the Banks have finished selling. Will close levered positions at B and reassess data over the weekend. A little tired. RealisedGains Investing 7 July 2024 00:17 UTC+08:00 57. 8-58. 5k $BTC probably going to hit! Decent profits 🫡 orders already set Unknown 7 July 2024 00:18 UTC+08:00 Full close at D but I am on leverage as I said and I want to take profits on principle. Just how I trade 🤙🏼 Unknown 7 July 2024 00:29 UTC+08:00 Now we run it back turbo 🚀my crypto plays have been so damn good. can't remember the last time i was off on $BTC. i have however messed up a little with the US tech stocks but I think that market is rigged af right now due to elections. for context: Mag 7: +48%, S&P 493: +7. 5%, Russell: just went red for the year againi've had these levels since March though for full transparency, i posted the track record here, that march move down to 59k and back to 71k didn't really throw me off guard but I still decided we needed to revisit low 53ks to now break ATHs. was a good short from 71. 2k and i think i scaled back in very conservatively which meant i didn't drawdown at all given i expected 53. 9-54. 5k $BTC. Was adding longs yesterday morning while I was at yoga LOL. Unknown 7 July 2024 00:33 UTC+08:00 US Markets FrothI'll do a further analysis on the US equities market but we're very frothy right now esp on Big Tech. Just been green day after green day. I'm too cautious to buy longs/calls here as I can't control what happens during the non-US zones and I feel 0DTE can cause it to fall any moment so I don't want to be caught offside. Only way I would play this is on futures/CFDs where I can put a SL perpetually at the cost of incurring swap fees. Alternatively I could buy OTM puts for insurance on current positions. $VIX isn't even a hedge anymore due to vol suppression. Not shorting atm but waiting for supply levels. This might be hard to understand for some as normally I try to dumb it down to make it easier to understand as my thinking is normally wired a bit differently lol. Unknown 7 July 2024 00:34 UTC+08:00 Closing a few grand out of principle. Have another 1 BTC to close. Unknown 7 July 2024 00:36 UTC+08:00 At (B) now. (D) is a more definite close and potential short even due to the real meat there. Unknown 7 July 2024 00:45 UTC+08:00 Have a lot of other things on my plate right now still though. Have left my job and will be going completely full-time trading and off the grid in September. Will conduct mentorship, do some financial sales etc then. Will post on here less and likely keep this private (been free and public for 4 years already, this is my 10th year trading). You may choose to share this before I go private! Unknown 7 July 2024 00:46 UTC+08:00 Either way I do make money trading LOL so this chat has just been a meme page/journal for me. Unknown 7 July 2024 00:47 UTC+08:00 Likely going to be doing more Youtube, so you'll still gonna get the general learning points, education and documentation, just maybe not as LIVE. Not gonna hard sell anything. Unknown 7 July 2024 00:52 UTC+08:00 Opened 1. 5 $BTC long from 54k only. Closed 0. 5 here at 58. 1k average. Leaving 1 BTC to close for D with a generous trailing SL. Will full close D. I have another 1 BTC I bought on Spot. Not selling that as of now. Not a science, just principle. Unknown 7 July 2024 00:54 UTC+08:00 Or I could just be a trading streamer but I'm not sure if I have the personality for that. Just think a standalone telegram chat has no return on investment for me as it has limited marketing potential and I do take a lot of time to type out my thought process here as y'all can tell. Will update soon! RealisedGains Investing 7 July 2024 04:40 UTC+08:00 Closing more here. 58. 1k $BTC. Unknown 7 July 2024 04:42 UTC+08:00 Likely local top for the day. Weekend is low volume so I don't expect more upside. I already stressed that flows made this look like a weekend relief rally as I stated. Sweep down into economic data into 56k before Powell testifies on Tuesday as a risk-off sentiment. RealisedGains Investing 7 July 2024 20:56 UTC+08:00 If C invalidates it's likely due to US equities dropping for some reason if Powell says something off the cuff on Tuesday. I have SLs in invalidation zones but I have taken enough profits at 58k levels already! We're going down $BTC🩸 RealisedGains Investing 8 July 2024 05:51 UTC+08:00 I really don't miss LOL 🫡 Let's see if C holds. I think it could be deeper given flows right now! Asians are awaking. Unlike me, I don't sleep 👻 Unknown 8 July 2024 05:55 UTC+08:00 Re-calibrated C to 54. 4k $BTC. Low volume node here so I don't expect 56k to hold. If you're shorting I would hold till C. Not sure on D because Powell could say anything on Tuesday tbh. Downtrend still intact and if equities flip, crypto will be pulled down with it. Especially since with the introduction of $BTC ETFs, deleveraging/liquidation cascades can still occur on the insti side. If it's not clear already, I have taken profits at 57. 8-58. 1k like I repeatedly said and I have stops at my entries from the lows. I am almost always in the green due to how precise my entries are. RealisedGains Investing 8 July 2024 10:26 UTC+08:00 C tapped perfectly! Let's see D now. I did not even adjust the markers at all. Unknown 8 July 2024 10:36 UTC+08:00 Next step for a trader would be to develop a pinescript algo that trades off my signals based on percentages I set. I don't think trading can ever be fully automated but it can at least be assisted to avoid fat finger errors. That was how BNF made his millions in 2014. RealisedGains Investing 8 July 2024 13:42 UTC+08:00 I'm always cognisant of the fact that the markets can humble me. Hence, why i practice so much discipline and restraint with my leverage despite the accuracy of my calls 🤙🏼 I could definitely get away with 20x leverage on my last 10 plays last month and turn $500 to $500k again. Yet, I only employ 1. 5-2. 5x leverage. We must remember the wise words of Marcus Aurelius and Stoicism - to have no reaction if i'm up or down a 100 grand. Don't let a win get to your head or a loss to your hearts. RealisedGains Investing 8 July 2024 17:37 UTC+08:00 the big D is coming. . . 🤫🍆 Unknown 8 July 2024 17:38 UTC+08:00 give me a 10/10 trade for this week LFG 🚀 RealisedGains Investing 8 July 2024 17:59 UTC+08:00 Ws in the Chat 🫡 Giving y'all free bangers for the last month! RealisedGains Investing 8 July 2024 21:40 UTC+08:00 That being said, I think after the D move on $BTC we go down to green zone 48. 5k (will analyse this later). I have this feeling Powell will stress that they can't cut yet in his speech on Tuesday, and the US dollar $DXY sees a rebound. In that case, crypto could do a final move down for this wave. Unknown 8 July 2024 21:40 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 9 July 2024 01:50 UTC+08:00 I'd cut the longs here and only hold spot. Weekly PA looks bearish and even on no data day it can't rally implying sellers in control. Can look to bid under 50k for $BTC! RealisedGains Investing 9 July 2024 22:03 UTC+08:00 Powell Speaks! Is today a blue (Down) or purple (Up) tie day? 🤵🏻‍♂️👔Source: Good Evening Ladies and Gentleman Unknown 9 July 2024 22:08 UTC+08:00 I'm still holding $BTC spot but I've cut levered positions due to the monthly candle structure flipping bearish and also headwinds due to a potential equities pullback I'm potentially seeing. Will flip bullish if we get a reclaim of the 60k level and it holds there for the D wave. Next support levels are at 45-48k $BTC, if we do get a final Wave 5 on our Elliot Wave count. Will update in the comments if there is anything substantial said during this Meeting! U. S. Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) is grilling Powell currently on Inflation. RealisedGains Investing 9 July 2024 23:30 UTC+08:00 Both $BABA and $TLT are up still! I am not touching $NKE despite the 20% discount. Their forward guidance is terrible and their CEO doesn't seem capable of navigating through these times. Will share an excel on my Core Portfolio balancing in the future, basically shifting between sectors. Powell has been getting grilled non-stop through this hearing. Pretty wild that Yellen, Powell, and Schwagel are all testifying at the same time 👀 Will do a wrap-up later! RealisedGains Investing 10 July 2024 12:30 UTC+08:00 Looks like we do get out tap to D on $BTC. Oh well, at least I have bought back my spot 😅 I wouldn't be a shorter here either. At most closing levered positions or trimming spot. Should have zoomed out, my bad! Asians are bidding 👀 Unknown 10 July 2024 12:35 UTC+08:00 D retracement for $BTC is either 60. 3-60. 8k or if fully extended 62. 1-62. 5k (drawn above^). If that does not hold we get our move down to E. I personally will not be selling my spot as I am bullish till 100k here already. Not until or unless something in the Fed system breaks and we get emergency rate cuts, otherwise there's just too much money in the system. Up only from here! RealisedGains Investing 10 July 2024 22:04 UTC+08:00 LIVE: Powell speaks again to lawmakers before CPI tomorrow. Expecting a dovish meeting but seasonality weakness is coming in the next 1-2 weeks so I would start moving towards a delta neutral US portfolio allocation. I think China however, is starting to break out again. Watching $BIDU $BABA $SE $BYD $SSE. Already broke the 200MA. Will buy on pullbacks. Nikkei has also broke the 35 year downtrend to ATH. Source: J Pow testifies 10/7 RealisedGains Investing 11 July 2024 20:23 UTC+08:00 9 Minutes to CPI release. Mostly in Chinese shares and Silver now so I don't this will affect my positions too much! Expecting inline data. Unknown 11 July 2024 20:31 UTC+08:00 Bullish Soft Print. 0. 1. RealisedGains Investing 11 July 2024 21:27 UTC+08:00 Silver will hit $60 one day. Still holding my bag. I cannot buy US tech at these highs and PE levels but I think there's still money to be made in commodities like gold, silver, or low caps when breadth widens. Just going to drop a list of counters; DYOR NFA $TLT $XAG $XAU $MCD $NKE $IWM $BABA $KWEB $CWEB $BIDU $BYD $PDDI cannot buy US tech at these highs and PE levels but I think there's still money to be made in commodities like gold, silver, or low caps when breadth widens. RealisedGains Investing 11 July 2024 21:54 UTC+08:00 No US tech for me, my thesis is that it will rotate into other sectors, $IWM, Small caps, China. I cannot buy here when down-side risk is so high. My Silver and Gold up 3% & 2% today! This is just runaway inflation at this point with the dollar devaluing and Yellen dropping stimmy bazookas. Crypto likely chops here and runs up to 100k eventually. Time is a way to weed out weak hands. I am just going to hold my $BTC spot. Still holding my 1 BTC from 54. 4k. Have cut all levered positions in profits. Unknown 11 July 2024 22:00 UTC+08:00 $TLT will likely rally upon rate cuts. Lower rates = Bond price appreciation. Likely comes with an equities pullback and ending of USDJPY carry trade. the $NQ and $USDJPY chart looks exactly similar because Japan is simping for the US economy by choosing to bail out Fed spending by holding their debt. I think most Japanese are too old & subservient to realise their purchasing power is siphoned away while they work till 100+ (they live that long anyway and barely travel out). Bank of Japan's Ueda is royally screwing their citizens by continuing to hold US debt while others like China and BRICs move away from the USD hegemony 👀 (Japan now largest holder of Debt after China dumped, YCC Yield Curve Control abandoning in March to attempt to posit to be restrictive ended up futile)Nikkei in melt-up mode now because it's dollar denominated and the Yen is dying even further. RIP to those Japanese Citizens uninvested and their future generations. . . (they also stopped having kids and just watch porn anyway) 😮‍💨 RealisedGains Investing 11 July 2024 22:18 UTC+08:00 Yes, the $QQQ and $SPY can continue to go up. Basically everything is a melt-up if we're loosening policies. Markets are priced upwards. However, it's more likely better and safer profits in a broader based index $DJI $IWM, even $TLT. Why $TLT? Again, when the supply of short-term debt instrument through issuance slows. Rate cuts would make short-term interest rates lower than long-term ones. Generally, bonds with long maturities and low coupons have the longest durations. These bonds are more sensitive to a change in market interest rates and thus are more volatile in a changing rate environment. TLDR, cut in Fed Funds Rate, TLT Booms 🚀 Unknown 11 July 2024 22:21 UTC+08:00 $QQQ $NQ supports at 477-485. Nice break of structure here! RealisedGains Investing 11 July 2024 22:42 UTC+08:00 Think we break down further to green zone. Lots of long positions need to unwind. RealisedGains Investing 11 July 2024 23:17 UTC+08:00 Dollar down 0. 5% today. That's huge for an entire currency. Melt-up commencing. RealisedGains Investing 11 July 2024 23:35 UTC+08:00 Huge Volatility day. Tech broadening out onto other sectors. I think $MCD $NKE $LULU is gonna pick up. Money will flow back into good fundamental companies. The broader market has been in a bear market actually other than $NVDA $TSLA Mag 7. Time for some others to shine! Unknown 11 July 2024 23:35 UTC+08:00 Unknown 11 July 2024 23:35 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 12 July 2024 01:47 UTC+08:00 I think that was our D tap^ on $BTC just shy of 60k. Either we consolidate here or do a final tap to 46-48k $BTC before continuing the bull run to 100k+. Either way I am choosing to hold my spot already. If we do go down, it is what it is. I already traded well enough to stay in the game and accumulate sats. RealisedGains Investing 12 July 2024 03:39 UTC+08:00 What I learned with trading is that economic data/fundamental analysis is useless in the shorter time frame; just trade price action, momentum and use technical analysis. Unless you're investing and in a bear market, data is rigged at these levels. How often do we see unemployment data revised? or Markets ignore PPI, CPI, PMI. How do we value a company when PE forward PE is 40-70 right now on US tech. Data days are only important to fade moves and monitor volatility. RealisedGains Investing 12 July 2024 08:56 UTC+08:00 Nikkei NI225 gaps down 2% on the open. Very likely due to the carry trade unwinding. US Printed a cool CPI report inducing higher likelihoods of rate cuts in the dot plot and lower yield on the carry trade. Since dollar weakens, and yen strengthens. This directly weakens Japanese equities market. Further noting that it has also been overbought for a few days now just like the US. Many factors to play. But also why I was watching the Yen last night with my previous write-up! RealisedGains Investing 12 July 2024 09:19 UTC+08:00 Same charts for $BTC Crypto. Worked for (1) to (2) so far and (ABCD), I don't see why not (E). Let's finish this bloodbath 🩸🫡 I'm down like 15k. But I have quite a bit of profits to buffer and it's relative to size!Tbh I could have just played it all perfectly as individual trades. Was very on point on these so far! Unknown 12 July 2024 09:19 UTC+08:00 Unknown 12 July 2024 09:21 UTC+08:00 Think I gave the $BTC 72k top to 61k to 66k to exact 53. 4k to 58. 1k to 54. 4k to final 60k. You can scroll up to check. Final bottom I'm gonna go with 47. 2-47. 9k quick wick. Unknown 12 July 2024 09:25 UTC+08:00 I did say I was cutting $BTC longs towards D^! I also did say I am holding my spot from 53. 4k (slightly regreting). I also did say it iz what it iz. Unknown 12 July 2024 09:29 UTC+08:00 ^ thesis was that equities would unwind with CPI and this would pull down $BTC. As perfect as my last 10 runs been, it's difficult to time it perfectly so if you want to buy back slightly earlier so be it. Anything under 50k for $BTC should be fine!If you got good entries then you watch the bounce strength and if oscillators validate continuation. If bad entries then bopez. I am also managing my broader portfolio with Japanese, Chinese and US funds so I try to just shift between sectors/geographical regions. Unknown 12 July 2024 09:33 UTC+08:00 Muted open for China. Also probably because China has not much ties with whatever US does since they're a closed economy. Mostly look to Asian hours for gold movements during the killzones. Okay done reporting. I'll set up a groupchat in the future to split the different markets up. RealisedGains Investing 13 July 2024 17:45 UTC+08:00 I actually can't see equities or crypto collapsing just yet. Likely just chop. USD falling hard even on the weekends. Maybe after elections! Happy weekend frans 🫶🏻 RealisedGains Investing 14 July 2024 12:48 UTC+08:00 Bitcoin Rises Amid Trump Shooting IncidentNew York, 14th July 2024 — Bitcoin surged to 60k USD today after former President Donald Trump was shot at a campaign rally. With Trump in stable condition, the incident is seen as potentially increasing his re-election odds, prompting investors to seek the safety of cryptocurrency amid market uncertainty. Source: Shooting at Trump's Rally RealisedGains Investing 14 July 2024 12:50 UTC+08:00 Don't think you can predict this. . . Still holding my 1 BTC spot though as I said. To me low enough is enough. If you go on a positional trade play, and the worst I can see $BTC going is 44-48k and my TP is 100k+, that's still enough of a odds ratio given my win rate to get positive expectancy in the long-term. Will be clear bullish once we break the 60-62k levels. RealisedGains Investing 16 July 2024 23:21 UTC+08:00 Next leg up for gold $XAU 2655-2712 and silver $XAG 34. 7-35. 3. As I said, US tech still too technically overbought. Will not be touching, on defensive with $IWM $TLT $XAG $XAU $GLD $SLV. Watching China's 3rd Plenum for more guidance. Holding $BTC spot still. Unknown 16 July 2024 23:21 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 17 July 2024 11:11 UTC+08:00 I am probably looking for 68. 1k-68. 3k $BTC to consider selling some spot or as a supply zone to rebuy back as I expect a retracement after that. We're going to go to 100k+ after that though. . . I might short once we get past 100k+ and into parabolic blowoff top territory 🫡 Current strat is just to buy low, sell high and rebuy. Not looking to short too much and too often here already. Unknown 17 July 2024 11:15 UTC+08:00 I will not be buying $BTC here though. We ALREADY ran up and US equities are stalling. While we have broke bearish structure I expect a retest to 62k again for $BTC. Trump is technically (based on past records & policies) bullish crypto, bullish china, bearish oil. You might think he imposes tariffs but he does this across countries. RealisedGains Investing 17 July 2024 12:26 UTC+08:00 Reason I didn't sell my spot I bought at the lows and am not selling now yet either. Trump doesn’t tilt his head at the last second and we would have gotten 50k $BTC / 2. 5k $ETH. Nobody can predict this market fully. By at least selling the $BTC highs at 72k and targeting 53. 8k I likely already saved myself from a lot of pain, unrealised losses and possible capitulation/paper handedness. A lot easier to hold the 53-54k buys when you shorted from 72k, are sitting in profits to buffer, and unscathed from the drop. Eventually we go to 105-110k $BTC one day. I will sell fully there. Unknown 17 July 2024 12:33 UTC+08:00 Current play is wait for red region to sell and rebuy lower. Might sell covered calls at 70k strike when mark hits 68k+ $BTC. As I said, I don't think the moon run is for another few months till EOY, Crypto likely wants to consolidate here and lower IV for awhile so I'll just make some profit of my spot with yield farming/selling calls. I have never tried Options on Crypto since my ol' Deribit 2017/2018 days but the liquidity was extremely bad back then. Unknown 17 July 2024 12:34 UTC+08:00 Maybe for 1-2 weeks expiration only into the August seasonality weakness lows. Will watch flows first. RealisedGains Investing 17 July 2024 18:45 UTC+08:00 The hardest part with positions sometimes is doing. . . nothing. Tempted to add long size here but then again, I'll mess up my R:R and strategy if I did this. A lot of trading is just waiting, few will tell you this! RealisedGains Investing 17 July 2024 19:11 UTC+08:00 ^ Same support levels on $QQQ 477-483, think we might go even deeper since we're so overbought on so many timeframes. Cooloff here is needed. Trickle down still happening to $DJI $IWM like I posted! RealisedGains Investing 17 July 2024 22:12 UTC+08:00 Like I said, wait for 477 on $QQQ today - patience! 2. 5% drop so far! Normally 2nd half of July is weaker seasonality. Kind of worried this pullback extends deeper and drags crypto with it. 🤔 Unknown 17 July 2024 22:19 UTC+08:00 To be fair, I think something changed this year where I no longer see Bitcoin tied to correlation with Equities but more like gold. It's starting to change from a risk asset ($TSLA $NVDA) into something like screw the banks/anti-dollar (Gold $DXY inverse DXY). Either way, I can tell you one thing - dollar is dying with more rate cuts. Yield curve about to steepen. To me this is bullish bonds directly. $TLT my highest conviction play right now. RealisedGains Investing 17 July 2024 23:57 UTC+08:00 Good enough to flip long. Think we get a relief rally into tomorrow for $QQQ, 483-481 already today. RealisedGains Investing 18 July 2024 00:35 UTC+08:00 62. 5k - 61. 1k $BTC Support waiting to be touched. We are just going to range here! Unknown 18 July 2024 00:39 UTC+08:00 Let's try this again. Think 100k+ $BTC is likely going to take awhile. . . It's likely going to be a lot of chop here as I mentioned, won't even break highs that fast. Just going to be collecting premiums and trying to chill! RealisedGains Investing 18 July 2024 04:47 UTC+08:00 My plan is to sit in t-bills now (and a handful of put positions). Then rotate to long bonds when the Fed fully panics. And then rotate t-bond profits to gold once bond yields collapse (t-bonds sky-rocket). I base this off of the sequence of events that transpired in both 2008 and 2020. RealisedGains Investing 18 July 2024 21:12 UTC+08:00 Relief rally here as I said. Green Zone holding for now on $QQQ. I am cautious of another further drop. The Yen JPY gap up due to intervention means a huge unwinding of the carry trade as evidenced also by the big cap techs gapping down huge. This could be a deeper correction on equities where preserving gains and capital is number one. I'd TP this US equities long early and leave a small trailing position with SL at entry likely. Unknown 18 July 2024 21:14 UTC+08:00 Main holdings: $XAU Gold, $XAG Silver, $TLT, $BTC now. As I said I have switched to defensive again. Equities positions only on CFDs as a scalp. RealisedGains Investing 19 July 2024 00:25 UTC+08:00 ^ Coming to point A now since I gave this chart to sell at 65. 5k for $BTC. Hedged with my covered calls. Went 2 weeks strike only! Unknown 19 July 2024 00:34 UTC+08:00 l am going to posit an unpopular opinion that we might get E still ^ at 44-48k $BTC and I think one must be prepared for it if we get a black swan event. I am unlevered and still sitting on some dry powder if that happens will give levels closer to it happening if it does. RealisedGains Investing 19 July 2024 01:28 UTC+08:00 In future, I am going to have to learn to trade bonds, spreads and volatility. Trying out a new combo; New position on $APPN involving stock and options: Buy one Sep 20 35 Call, Sell two 45 Calls, and Sell one 32. 5 Put. Unknown 19 July 2024 01:29 UTC+08:00 Not in $BTC shorts but holding one in $FLOKI if we do get to 44-48k $BTC I will close. This should hedge my spot $BTC position theoretically with a delta neutral crypto exposure. RealisedGains Investing 19 July 2024 03:14 UTC+08:00 Holding shorts. Unknown 19 July 2024 03:29 UTC+08:00 So far for $BTCwe shorted 72k to 61klonged 61k to 66kshorted 66k to 53. 4klonged 53. 4k to 65. 6kshorting 65. 6k to 44-48k nowWill watch 60-62k Support level closely. I will not short if we go under 62k already. I only believe we are going down temporarily due to a broader market pullback as hedgefunds unwind their falling tech positions I think Crypto is just institutional collateral damage along with FTX and German Govt dumping. Long-term still up! Unknown 19 July 2024 03:34 UTC+08:00 Probably for $BTC shortsTP 1 62. 5-61. 1k (50%)TP 2 44-48k (50%)Will set a SL at TP 1 when we get there! I have high confidence we get to TP1, not sure on TP2 but preparing for it. Just being prepared for worse case scenarios saves you more than most retail. Unknown 19 July 2024 03:48 UTC+08:00 The trick is to last in this trading game long enough to get good; the day you manage and compound to a 8 figure portfolio is the day you deserve it - unless you're one of the lucky few who can yolo their way there 🫱🏼‍🫲🏾Think my technical analysis and fundamental understanding is good but I still lack knowledge & experience of how to trade spreads, bonds and VIX. Also, certain commods like soy/oil/palladium. 2 schools of thought; I can trade what I am good at (i. e Crypto, Equities, Currencies) OR learn more asset classes to add to my arsenal. No harm learning imo! RealisedGains Investing 19 July 2024 12:09 UTC+08:00 A and B hit. Now time for C! Don't think we get D with the rising vega environment. RealisedGains Investing 24 July 2024 14:35 UTC+08:00 Guess the first opinion was the right one, got our 68. 1k on $BTC ^! Still holding shorts and covered calls. Think we still go down to 60k levels! Probably chop along with equities for next couple weeks! RealisedGains Investing 24 July 2024 17:31 UTC+08:00 $QQQ next support zone 438-442. Think we reach there eventually, that's a strong buy zone! Unknown 24 July 2024 17:45 UTC+08:00 $TSLA with a big premarket drop with an EPS beat, Earnings miss. Still not touching US equities. Way overheated still. Better opportunities elsewhere when Forward PE/PE of their companies are 60-100 😂Either long gold $XAU or short equities $QQQ in the near-term timeframe! Unknown 24 July 2024 17:46 UTC+08:00 I think TP1 will still happen for $BTC. Within the normal volatility and ATR still. Chop city! Unknown 24 July 2024 17:50 UTC+08:00 To be fair I gave y'all the $BTC shorts into 53k and longs from there and I didn't even say short or TP positions to 66-68k. In terms of Bitcoin 1-2k is not a huge movement. I am trading based on 1. 5-2x ATR as my SL most times. You have to allow the trade to play out 🫱🏼‍🫲🏽 and if it doesn't - then just accept there is random walk and things in life we can't predict 👌🏼 RealisedGains Investing 25 July 2024 02:13 UTC+08:00 Massive red day on $QQQ. Gave y'all the break of structure at 497! A total of 2% drop premarket and a further 3% drop so far. Told ya 👋🏻 Unknown 25 July 2024 02:14 UTC+08:00 Think the next to move would be $TLT and $XAU upwards. Happens everytime with fear. $VIX finally spiking after a year of suppression! RealisedGains Investing 25 July 2024 07:27 UTC+08:00 After some analysis, I think this is where we reverse^ ($QQQ at 438-442). Most times when we break the 50DMA, it drops further. . . Likely scenario! Then we resume the final leg of the bull run for crypto and equities. RealisedGains Investing 25 July 2024 22:04 UTC+08:00 449-451 minimally to close $QQQ shorts. Would probably close them before friday due to options expirations and FOMC coming. Unknown 25 July 2024 22:05 UTC+08:00 Coming to 62. 5k-61. 1k on $BTC shorts as well! Unknown 25 July 2024 22:09 UTC+08:00 Didn't hit C basically went straight to D, so the new count for E should be C for $BTC. ^ RealisedGains Investing 28 July 2024 01:28 UTC+08:00 im short $btc RealisedGains Investing 29 July 2024 22:13 UTC+08:00 Target E for $BTC shorts. Added more at 70k. Unknown 29 July 2024 22:15 UTC+08:00 Looking for demand zones at68. 2k (20%), 67. 4k (30%), 64. 4k (50%) support to close. Will flip back long potentially at E. Unknown 29 July 2024 22:16 UTC+08:00 Good call to close on $QQQ short before Friday, didn't hit 451 but hit 455 only. Fully closed. Waiting for 470+ to short. Unknown 29 July 2024 22:18 UTC+08:00 Feels very normal for $BTC to reject at 70k since it's a whole number, masses starting to buy now when you could at 53k (which I did). Just bear in mind there's zero economic data today so it's a low volume move and pretty useless to watch. RealisedGains Investing 29 July 2024 22:55 UTC+08:00 I like $BTC at 64. 4k (+-) tbh. Feels like the real demand zone! RealisedGains Investing 30 July 2024 00:31 UTC+08:00 I forgot to do this the last 1 month and paid 1k extra in commission fees. Fml. There was once upon a time I bought 1000 $FTT to try to reduce my fees but then Sam Bankman Fried rugged me. . . Unknown 30 July 2024 00:32 UTC+08:00 Selling looks strong. . . Unfortunately I have closed 50% already. . . Opened a 2 $BTC short. So left about 70k in Margin running down! ^ RealisedGains Investing 31 July 2024 13:12 UTC+08:00 Closing my last 50% for $BTC short at 64. 4-64. 9k. Will opt to flip long there but this is just once again for a tiny scalp relief rally up. Then potentially resume downside to 61-62k if further dragged down by US equities fear/FOMC should be a non-event and already priced in with rates as per dot plot. Unknown 31 July 2024 13:18 UTC+08:00 I was trading 15-20 $BTC size like 2 years ago^ (albeit with mark price at 40k-60k, that's about 800k - 1. 2 mil margin) and trading 1. 5-2 $BTC size now. On an IV and ATR standpoint we used to move 3-10% per days sometimes back then, I think movements are smaller now with more institutional adoption. Just restarting from a smaller account with less leverage for better mental health. I am barely watching this trade tbh, perhaps better this way. I have also hedged my main holdings on the cold wallet with covered calls like I said. Unknown 31 July 2024 13:32 UTC+08:00 Waiting for this on $QQQ as well. Went short at 497 with 1. 5 million at first but pussied out and closed 90% already. Honestly this was my worst close. Think I miscalculated my size and missed out on a ton of profits. Holding the remainder down :( I did have bear call spreads about 1 month ago as well on $SPY if you guys recalled. I believe this drops down further with September seasonality lows & FOMC as the impetus. I still expect China, Commodities, Long bonds to run-up into the late stage of the year after that. Unknown 31 July 2024 13:34 UTC+08:00 Silver $XAG $SLV at 26-27 right now is at a buy zone. I think $TLT lows are in along with most of Chinese stocks. Just being brain dead and buying the index for now. ^Rough update of positional thesises. Unknown 31 July 2024 13:44 UTC+08:00 We're still going to 100k+ for $BTC eventually. A lot of my overarching longer term chart opinions are in the pinned posts. Small possibility of 44k happening if equities crash but (scared money don't make money) I am still bullish right now. 53k $BTC low predictionHistorical Track Record Unknown 31 July 2024 13:51 UTC+08:00 FOMC is tomorrow btw, we could do a massive drop still. I would not be long equities and crypto on leverage here. But hey don't shoot the messenger ✌🏼 I tend to be more right than wrong 🫱🏼‍🫲🏽 438 $QQQ and 60-61k $BTC tomorrow maybe🩸I am just derisking into the red folder events. Trying out a bullish VIX ladder now to long vega, slightly delta negative. Long strangle on equities with split strikes leaning more bearish. Unknown 31 July 2024 13:51 UTC+08:00 Ok bye update over. Enjoy the day bois! RealisedGains Investing 1 August 2024 02:04 UTC+08:00 FOMC comes in inline with expectations pre-markets move already precede. No change. Still holding remainder of $BTC shorts. RealisedGains Investing 1 August 2024 03:58 UTC+08:00 Split my last remaining 50% to close for $BTC. 25% at 64. 4-64. 7k and 25% at 60-61k approx. Little bit more. Will punt a long later! I am not confident on 60-61k reaching but the 64. 4-64. 7k should hit. Unknown 1 August 2024 04:02 UTC+08:00 Think we should do a bounce at 64. 4k though! ^ Will probably wake up to my TPs and flips. Going to sleep. RealisedGains Investing 1 August 2024 05:06 UTC+08:00 Ok we got our 64. 4k! Unknown 1 August 2024 05:07 UTC+08:00 Waiting for my last fill for $BTC shorts closing at 60-61k then I flip long 🫶🏻 Unknown 1 August 2024 05:08 UTC+08:00 I said 64. 4k-64. 7k, it's close enough. Can close here some already. This was the target I wanted anyway for $BTC. Unknown 1 August 2024 05:09 UTC+08:00 Aiming for 61. 9-60. 5k on $BTC to flip long. I know this is a big range so just ladder stink bids! RealisedGains Investing RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 13:01 UTC+08:00 Further Relief tomorrow likely due to VIX crush fridays. We're above 470+ on $QQQ like I said. Gave y'all the 497 short to 457-459 last Thursday close as well. In for small levels of $SLV $XAG as well. Factors to consider: CPI, PPI, PCE, FOMC speakers, FOMC mtg, FOMC minutes from prior mtg, Daily OpEx, Weekly OpEx, Monthly OpEx, Quarterly OpEx, double/triple/quadruple witching. RealisedGains Investing RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 13:53 UTC+08:00 Think maybe something like this for $BTC. We're likely just chopping into September. Waiting for seasonality lows. Might be easier to just wait it out and wait for 60-61k to buy. We're in a low volume node now. RealisedGains Investing RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 20:30 UTC+08:00 Longing $BTC till 66. 2k or something idk i'm drinking tn. RealisedGains Investing 2 August 2024 01:52 UTC+08:00 Average price for $BTC longs now 62. 5k. Scaled in slowly after exiting shorts 🤙🏼 I have SLs for this one but I think a bit oversold on the hourly 🩸 I did expect this so not really surprised. Unknown 2 August 2024 01:52 UTC+08:00 Unknown 2 August 2024 01:56 UTC+08:00 Aiming for 63. 7, 64. 1, 64. 4k to close on $BTC. 30/40/40% closes, trailing SL. Flipping back short at 64. 5-65. 5k. Unknown 2 August 2024 01:57 UTC+08:00 That being said might be easier to wait for these levels to long. Just felt it was close enough. . . RealisedGains Investing 2 August 2024 04:33 UTC+08:00 Once again, 1st TP hit 🫡 Unknown 2 August 2024 04:36 UTC+08:00 I did buy quite a lot so I am closing 30% here, only out of principle! I unfortunately closed all my last $BTC shorts from 70k at 64. 1-64. 7k a little earlier then the lows of 62. 2k. Technically, longing the bottom is essentially the same thing though. $QQQ shorts from 475 also holding! Unknown 2 August 2024 04:39 UTC+08:00 Current US equities play with write-up and explanation collated & time-stamped above. Shorted $QQQ from 497 with thesishttps://t. me/realisedgainsanalysis/1801Flipped long $QQQ from 457 predicting 470https://t. me/realisedgainsanalysis/1879Flipped short $QQQ from 470 now to 438https://t. me/realisedgainsanalysis/1904https://t. me/realisedgainsanalysis/1870 Unknown 2 August 2024 04:44 UTC+08:00 TP 2 hit. Dropped it to30% TP 120% TP 250% TP 3Higher probability of TP 3 given current technical models so shifting risk accordingly. Remember;trade probabilities not possibilities. i'm in the business of buying and selling risk, not valuations; don't get it confused. Unknown 2 August 2024 04:53 UTC+08:00 I cancelled a few of my orders only 40% closed. Letting the rest run since TP2/3 was hit so fast. Feels like an potential impulse wave instead of standard 5 count elliot wave. Will switch to trailing SL for now and (try to) go to sleep. Unknown 2 August 2024 04:56 UTC+08:00 Kind of what I mean by I can't be extremely predicative as I am not clairvoyant, I just like to think I do better than average at drawing charts. It's easier to be reactive than predictive in certain market conditions esp with economic data as I mentioned before on brownian motion/random walk/game theory. Market can remain irrational longer than you stay solvent blahblahblah. Also, I was trading heavily inebriated and tired I mentioned (those who saw me earlier can attest). So if you copied these trades, you are irresponsible. RealisedGains Investing 2 August 2024 05:46 UTC+08:00 Already at the flip short range. . . Only took 4 hours to get to 65k. Let me relook the flows. I do a smaller standard 1-2 $BTC size now. Maybe i'll try make it back on the leaderboards but I haven't traded crypto full-time in about 2 years man. I just held spot through the bullrun. With 2-3x Leverage it requires me 6 moves of 10% or more to make 60% returns. Based on daily adjusted IV & ATR this means the average daily move is about 2k or 3%. Not ruling out $BTC to 44-48k completely like I said if equities and the BoJs rate hikes, etc force a liquidity run-off. Unknown 2 August 2024 05:46 UTC+08:00 Unknown 2 August 2024 05:47 UTC+08:00 Bullish move too strong to flip short here. I think impulse wave is validated. We hold longs for now. Probably extending past these levels as well! RealisedGains Investing RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 05:58 UTC+08:00 Next week I sell cash secured puts for $QQQ at 438-442 like I said. RealisedGains Investing RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 15:21 UTC+08:00 Probably gonna scale in $BTC shorts at 65-66. 2k. Don't shoot the messenger 👀Saylor's 2Billion USD buy is basically 30k out of 19-21 million circulating supply. Nothingburger. Source: 30k BTC buy Unknown RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 15:24 UTC+08:00 Full disclosure/transparency if you guys don't think I take losses. I am down like 40k on my China stocks. Mainly $KWEB I bought at 24 and did not sell all at 31 (if you scroll up). Not worried cause my crypto is doing well. Still think I am good at what I do, but perhaps I am managing too many positions/sectors. Something to consider. Tryna optimise. Unknown RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 15:33 UTC+08:00 I think we relief up on equities and crypto soon, possibly today since it's $VIX crush friday. Yet $VIX can drop even without a rally if it's just chop to kill volatility. Only thing holding up volatility at the moment is the anticipated Iranian retaliation. Once that subsides, the $VIX will decrease. RealisedGains Investing RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 16:19 UTC+08:00 We've reached support at $QQQ on a $VIX crush Friday. We have not bottomed & trend is clearly down but don't be foolhardy not to expect bounces along the way 👌🏼 RealisedGains Investing RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 18:28 UTC+08:00 When I say the USDJPY carry trade is unwinding, I mean it. Biggest crash for Japanese stocks since Black Monday 1987. We're going to see the Yen strengthen now; 2nd largest holder of US Debt. - Bank of Japan's (BOJ) yield curve control is effectively "dead" and market participants know it- Ueda has abandoned negative interest rate policy (NIRP) and may hike rates by 100, 150, or even 200 basis points as Japanese wage growth reignites inflation. Unknown RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 18:31 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 22:35 UTC+08:00 Back scaled in shorts at 65k for $BTC just entered 🫡 Unknown RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 22:38 UTC+08:00 TP possibly 44-48k $BTC Unknown RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 22:44 UTC+08:00 USDSGD currently 1. 32. Result of the carry trade unwinding. We're in heavy bear market territory now for equities. Could see $QQQ to 405 as well. $TLT as I said also booming up since I called it at sub 90. $BTC is iffy because if you see it as similar to gold i'm bullish. Yet if you see it as risk-on like $NVDA then I am bearish. That's why I am on more inbetween on it and just betting it's heavy chop. With temporal headwinds pushing it to 40-50k again. Unknown RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 22:50 UTC+08:00 This was correct in the end ^, so I just executed my long closes and flipped short. Should have just believed the 65. 5k resistance level like I initially predicted but an average of 64. 8k is good enough. Once again, not perfect because I am not a robot and I need to sleep unfortunately. So far shorted 70k to 53khttps://t. me/realisedgainsanalysis/1735Flipped long 53k to 70khttps://t. me/realisedgainsanalysis/1815Shorted 70k to 62. 5khttps://t. me/realisedgainsanalysis/1852Flipped long 62. 5 to 65khttps://t. me/realisedgainsanalysis/1911Flipped shorted 65k to new lows. . . Might take awhile this one! Once again, all are just ideas and I put my money where my mouth is so my money can feed my mouth. Don't kpkb if I am wrong. Unknown RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 22:57 UTC+08:00 Not going 44-48k immediately btw, I expect 58k to hold. Will reassess there 🫡 ^^^ probably looks like the chart above but D likely lower. Possibly to 58-59k then to 61-62k then chop a few days then 44-48k for $BTC. Please search in chat $BTC / $QQQ / $TLT $SLV $XAG $GLD $XAU if you want to see specific charts. I don't delete anything. RealisedGains Investing RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 23:10 UTC+08:00 It iz what it iz. Unknown RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 23:24 UTC+08:00 Discretionary traders typically rely on trading techniques and strategies that generally have room for interpretation such as chart pattern analysis, support and resistance, Elliott wave, Fibonacci analysis, cyclical analysis and more. Systematic traders require more empirical or mathematical based data which can be programmed into an algorithm. As such, system traders will generally utilize technical indicators such as Stochastics, Williams %R, Average True Range, and more. Additionally they may use price smoothing indicators such as moving averages and price bands such as Keltner channels, or Bollinger Bands. I've always been more discretionary than systematic. There is no room for hesitation in the market. Generally this is why, I choose to avoid alcohol, run/workout to train my tolerance for pain. The best trades tend to be the most painful ones. You call it "brave", I call it contrarian. Drawdowns are purely a didactic exercise to test your measure as a man. RealisedGains Investing 3 August 2024 06:36 UTC+08:00 I'll just update when I close, might hold till 44-48k honestly. I'll take the volatility. RealisedGains Investing 4 August 2024 05:51 UTC+08:00 Just sold some 56k cash secured puts at 59k $BTC, with 3 day strike (24/08/06) to move it less delta negative. Essentially means if it breaks 56k in 3 days I need to TP half my position. Pretty bad premiums with only $200-300 collected but I am trying options on Crypto. Still holding original position size. We're at the 58. 4-58. 8k support I want already. Just broke under 60k earlier! Unknown 4 August 2024 05:51 UTC+08:00 Unknown 4 August 2024 05:58 UTC+08:00 Unknown 4 August 2024 06:09 UTC+08:00 I would argue that the difference this time round is we have the longest steepening yield curve uninversion in history after an unabated period of quantitative easing coupled with the fact with the unwinding of the USDJPY Carry Trade after decades of building up, along with war tensions every other day. Unprecedented times. Either way I am bearish for 1-2 months into this seasonality weakness. Still very bummed I TP-ed so much of my equities one early. Had close to 1. 5 million USD in shorts and left with 100k USD now. I need more stoicism in the future. Holding all my shorts. Unknown 4 August 2024 06:09 UTC+08:00 Unknown 4 August 2024 06:16 UTC+08:00 Fear is the mind killer. Nobody talks about the psychological aspect of trading enough. It's just digits on a screen but why do we feel so different with 5 digits vs 7 digits on the line. It's probability, permutations and expectancy. “I’ve done a lot of thinking about fear. For me the crucial question is not how to climb without fear-that’s impossible- but how to deal with it when it creeps into your nerve endings. ” - Honnold. Unknown 4 August 2024 06:16 UTC+08:00 Unknown 4 August 2024 06:16 UTC+08:00 Unknown 4 August 2024 06:28 UTC+08:00 This might be the most painful period for most investors why? You both lose in USD valuation (weakening DXY) and lower net asset value, NAV (crashing equities and risk assets). No emergency rate cuts till much deeper. Only thing that will be going up is gold, silver and long-dated bonds. I have mentioned this many times. Was slightly early, but not wrong. I've been mentioning July/August for a drop for awhile if you scroll up. - Hamas top leader Ismail Haniyeh killed on Iranian soil. - Hezbollah leader Shukr killed in Israeli airstrikes in Beirut. - BOJ emergency rate hikes. Unprecedented times of strife. RealisedGains Investing 5 August 2024 01:28 UTC+08:00 🤫 44-48k $BTC Unknown 5 August 2024 01:30 UTC+08:00 The blue whale, the world's biggest mammal is incredibly heavy. One female Bluewhale weighs more than 600 Giant African Elephants. However it is nowhere as heavy as my Ethereum Bags which was Promised to Pump Post ETH ETF. Unknown 5 August 2024 01:34 UTC+08:00 Satto down 130k damn. . . I'll get back to those numbers one day. Just refining my trading still. Sticking with 1-2 $BTC size for now. Unknown 5 August 2024 01:44 UTC+08:00 The most I opened was a 110 BTC short 2 years ago at 60k, so that was like 6. 6 million USD size with 400k margin, but I was a different person back then. No risk management and basically irresponsibly sliding the margin up. I could defo get away with it given how precise my entries and exits have been and I don't think my heart could take that anymore. Chance of ruin is much higher the greater your leverage is. He's basically using 210k capital to open 32 BTC (2 million USD) in notional size, that's 8. 83x leverage. Given $BTC regularly daily moves 2-5% based on IV/ATR. He doesn't actually have much to work with. Still wondering if he's actually bad, hedging on another account or using a fake ByBit referral account. He's actually going to be liquidated for the full 210k capital at 56098. Liquidation cascade down moving really fast now. Unknown 5 August 2024 01:52 UTC+08:00 I also temporarily removed discussion and most reactions because I don't want to engage with anybody tbh. I am just here to share my trade ideas, not here to debate, argue or pander my opinions in an echo chamber. I truly love this volatility though, I managed to eat a lot of the moves from the first 70k down to 53k and back up to 70k and all the way down to here; including all the small moves in between. Volatility is so lucrative for a trader. Managed to let the winners run as well. Very good R:R. RealisedGains Investing 5 August 2024 13:22 UTC+08:00 o dear 😂 Unknown 5 August 2024 13:32 UTC+08:00 i'm the same dude who can see 100k $BTC eventually but can still see 44-48k first at 70k ^ gave y'all the numbers exactly - all in advance. wasn't even scared to buy the dip at 62. 5k to flip back short at 65k and gave y'all 44-48k, even saying i wouldn't be tp-ing till there. if y'all been in this chat long enough you'd know i've done this many times before 👌🏼 and there's people still thinking i'd want to run a course or prove my books when i gave this all out for free for 5 years 😂 Unknown 5 August 2024 13:41 UTC+08:00 Just fyi, $QQQ $SPY are also posting a 2-5% drop today on futures along with $HSI tanking. A bloodbath for the ages. I've been trading for 10 years now, shorted the last drop from 60k to 18k which made me a good chunk of money. Stay calm, be patient, stick with the plan 🫱🏼‍🫲🏽 Volatility is back. Hold the shorts. Unknown 5 August 2024 13:46 UTC+08:00 Told y'all $BTC is not gold ^ 😂. When I was studying correlation, it generally increases correlation to risk assets in times of strife. The only time the crypto equities relationship depegs is during exuberant periods from what I noticed!Only thing gonna hold up now is $TLT and $XAU bois 🤗 Watch! and learn! Unknown 5 August 2024 13:52 UTC+08:00 Might get a circuit breaker -7% day soon. Then we get our emergency rate cuts in September. I say this casually but we're gonna see $QQQ open at 425 today. How wild is this 🫡A godsend to all the young investors. Market crashes is where we make our money. More! Pain! 🩸 RealisedGains Investing 5 August 2024 14:08 UTC+08:00 DMs from girls looking like this now?This is why you don't bring girls shopping, poor R:R. 🛍️ They see a 10% off sign and think of buying already - sales not over. We buy ONLY when the government needs to bail out and funds start unwinding. My 1. 5 Million USD $QQQ short from 497 would be up 300k now. Only made a quarter of that because I exited most at 477 like a pleb. I realised the mistake but didn't want to reposition. For the future! RealisedGains Investing 5 August 2024 14:31 UTC+08:00 my next prediction; some crypto exchange is gonna collapse, some bank is gonna fail, US goes about the whole routine stimulating once again, and raising the debt ceiling. then we only go long one week after that. bears have suffered for like months, you think 2 weeks of drop is enough? generally for 4-6 months of up, you see at least a month of down - i'm thinking September!at most i close some of my shorts early, won't be longing that soon. once again, stay humble or the market will humble you. no reaction, just eating my chyepng and going to the gym quietly. Unknown 5 August 2024 14:46 UTC+08:00 Storytime; and hopefully a lesson to some new traders out there. Back in 2018-2020 when I was trading in college and university, I shorted $BTC ($XBT on Bitmex) from 11k to 7k. Then in March 2020 during the covid crash it dropped from 8k to 3. 6k in 1 day. I bought $BTC at 5k thinking it was cheap and got liquidated at 3. 6k. This was the same day oil went negative. I remembered the entire order books being empty, they had to shut down exchange sites perhaps because Market Makers needed time to create orders. And then years later, I shorted Crypto from Jan 2022 at 68k to 18k (Check the chat) on FTX and I did managed to withdraw most of it but have still money stuck inside. That being said, today on 5th August i'm still going to TP some at 44-48k $BTC out of principle : ) It's not always about maximising profits, and minimising losses, it's about staying in the game. Unknown 5 August 2024 14:46 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 5 August 2024 15:11 UTC+08:00 Tell me who else you’ve seen who traded this better?shorted the first drop from 70k targeting 53k, https://t. me/realisedgainsanalysis/1684and then flipped long while doing yoga at 53k, holding spothttps://t. me/realisedgainsanalysis/1737retargeting the top of the trend line at 70khttps://t. me/realisedgainsanalysis/1739then re-shorting only at 70k targeting 64k initially, looking for fresh lows. https://t. me/realisedgainsanalysis/1876closing at 62. 5k, longing to 65k drunk https://t. me/realisedgainsanalysis/1911re-shorting at 65k targeting 44-48khttps://t. me/realisedgainsanalysis/1919They say trading is a game of probability and wits, where fortune favours the brave, and the odds be ever in your favour. I gave very solid plays for $QQQ, $SPY 370 to 530, $XAU from 1800 to 2400 - throughout the year as well. Scroll up to check. Unknown 5 August 2024 15:24 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 5 August 2024 16:17 UTC+08:00 Could you survive a bear market anon?I preface a biblical crash because you have to zoom out and see how absurd and ersatz this entire run-up has been, on the backbone of not just tightening condition but fake backdoor easing through the Treasury General Account (TGA), Reverse Repo and Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP). I never flipped short or shouted overbought till only 1-2 months back, I have always leaned on July - September seasonality weakness in line with the rate cuts being bearish for a pivot to bail out - slightly early but in the grand scheme of things, these are the decisions that save you. Taiwan stock market TSE worst selloff since 1967, Nikkei worst since 1987 Black Monday, US Tech about to do the same, $QQQ opens at 432. While look at China! Down a lot less, and Xi Jin Ping does have the conditions to stimulate if they want to or flip the USDCNY hegemony. I get that you think oh, it's cheap, let's buy the dip, let's catch this falling knife. Hence, why I shared that storytime post above. Study history, learn from my past mistakes. This time is different, only that it is faster - due to 0DTE. We are not at capitulation yet. RealisedGains Investing 5 August 2024 16:45 UTC+08:00 We're in the End Game nowAn orwellian dystopian modern day reality; I've always believed this to be so. With every hegemony ending, it comes with a boom and bust economic cycle culminating in war and riots. We're seeing a burgeoning feminism movement, a war against men, woke culture and racial and financial divide. Australia raises terror threat level to 'probable', Trudeau accepting immigrants left right and centre, UK protests, US president nominee assassination attempt, Bangladesh riots, Singapore Otter attacksIf you look through the Benner Cycle, and then the 100 year cycles and revolutions. We notice the french revolution in 1700s, Britain in 1800s, US in 1900s, and the 2000s will be China, with the BRICs likely taking over; Lenders refusing to lend beyond a calendar year during the napoleonic years. Soros shorting the pound. Burry shorting the housing bubble, etc etc. Source: The french revolution and financial markets - Jean-Laurent Rosenthal, Soros on Soros, CNN RealisedGains Investing 5 August 2024 18:41 UTC+08:00 I got TPs for $BTC all the way down from 48k to 44k don't say I didn't warn ya. I am just gonna sleep. Wide range because I am expecting volatility. Unknown 5 August 2024 18:43 UTC+08:00 Some levels for $BTC support:46. 3-46. 5k, 44. 8k-46. 6k, Flip Long after. Kthxbye. Unknown 5 August 2024 18:43 UTC+08:00 Under 49k don't bother shorting. RealisedGains Investing 5 August 2024 19:59 UTC+08:00 $TLT to $99 booming?! Yield curve uninverting? Rate cuts coming. I was right! 🚀😮‍💨 RealisedGains Investing 5 August 2024 20:33 UTC+08:00 50k is breached! 🩸 Unknown 5 August 2024 20:33 UTC+08:00 Set your orders chiggas. Unknown 5 August 2024 20:47 UTC+08:00 The $VIX is at 64 😂 this is hilarious. Unknown 5 August 2024 20:54 UTC+08:00 When I said circuit breaker day soon. By soon. I meant like today btw. 7% down day. $SPY to break under 500. LOL. RealisedGains Investing RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 20:56 UTC+08:00 USDSGD currently 1. 32. Result of the carry trade unwinding. We're in heavy bear market territory now for equities. Could see $QQQ to 405 as well. $TLT as I said also booming up since I called it at sub 90. $BTC is iffy because if you see it as similar to gold i'm bullish. Yet if you see it as risk-on like $NVDA then I am bearish. That's why I am on more inbetween on it and just betting it's heavy chop. With temporal headwinds pushing it to 40-50k again. RealisedGains Investing RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 21:02 UTC+08:00 $QQQ to 369-397, $BTC to 44-48k, $SPY to 468-472. Minimally these levels to even consider longs. ^ Wrote this awhile back. Easier to buy the dip when you just closed a short and have profits to buffer, at least psychologically. We still have not seen funds, exchanges and banks blow up. Those are the days you buy. This is just a standard liquidation cascade. As to why, Gold Silver or China is also dropping? Generally you have to realise that when big funds unwind their position, they have to sell everything or risk getting margin called. In doing so, gold will see a temporary pullback. When stocks bottom, $TLT peaks, gold $XAU generally lags and silver lags even further $XAG, these are generally not as liquid, but will drop as well, and will resurge after. Refer to chart and explanation here: https://t. me/realisedgainsanalysis/1840 RealisedGains Investing RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 21:22 UTC+08:00 10 minutes to market open. Think I will finally close some shorts on today's session. My chats today are also beyond cursed. Please don't DM or Call to me ask anything about the markets. I don't know shit. I am monk moding and just bing chilling. I have posted everything here already. No I am not going to manage anyone's money and apparently i'm going to end up kissing young boys 😂 Unknown RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 21:22 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 21:53 UTC+08:00 BREAKING: Charles Schwab, Fidelity, E-Trade and Robinhood are currently experiencing trading platform outages. Since these outages began, the S&P 500 has rebounded 1. 5%, adding ~$600 billion of market cap. Good ol' pause the game till we fix the market 🫱🏼‍🫲🏽 RealisedGains Investing 7 August 2024 22:42 UTC+08:00 $QQQ bouncing above 438-442 already^! Cash Covered Puts now in profits. I am expecting a chop around this region for a few weeks before a 2nd drop. I don't think bull run comes until September seasonality is over. If you recall I shorted $BTC from the top at 70k and also sold covered calls for a 2 month expiration there. $VIX being high yesterday means IV was high, but today that same $VIX has retraced back from 70 to 25 approx, killing premiums from both calls and puts. Hence, why selling options is still undefeated. As of now, I am still expecting a further drop later on into September. Let the volatility reset and then we continue with another leg of a drop is my 2 cents. BoJ Ueda is just succumbing to temporary political pressure after their rate hike. "Now the BoJ is clearly under pressure to respond to the market selloff and to justify its hawkish policy decision" - UBS RealisedGains Investing 8 August 2024 03:26 UTC+08:00 The premarket VIX spike on Monday to 66 was not due to panic from retail. The majority don’t even trade PM. Someone big blew up (financially speaking). Soon enough we’ll find out. To me personally, the lows on Monday will be retested within 6 weeks. Japan under extreme pressure to get big bois out slowly before dumping us into oblivion. I have long stated Japan is the one last factor bailing the US out. Unknown 8 August 2024 03:36 UTC+08:00 There's a lot of carry trade to unwind. Japan has a lot of US debt to dump, probably dates back to post WW2 reparations/protection in return for financial sepukku. I've talked about this before: https://t. me/realisedgainsanalysis/1799By BoJ raising rates, and US in talks of lowering, this makes the currency carry trade even less attractive! Unknown 8 August 2024 03:43 UTC+08:00 Some of y'all gonna call me stupid for this I know, but China at the end of this should be at new lows and 95% below ATH due to global recession contagion risk. Same thing when $BTC was at 3k and $WTI Oil was negative. Let's see who has the balls/capital/preparedness to buy then. 🫱🏼‍🫲🏽 Unknown 8 August 2024 03:57 UTC+08:00 Managed to barely get away with not getting assigned on these to close my shorts^. I had strikes at 56/55k to TP my $BTC shorts from 65k on (06/08/24). Yesterday's IV drop allowed me to get out of this trade while still holding my shorts. I'll do this again at 44-48k to keep my portfolio fluctuations tolerable. Till then I am still in monk mode. Unknown 8 August 2024 04:01 UTC+08:00 ^In hindsight, not worth it to earn $300 x 2, I would be risking 56k x 2 in capital essentially 😂 but it would just mean an early close on my 2 $BTC short with the cash secured put. Was just trying some options strategies, good thing I chose a 3 day strike!What I learned with trading has always been to press less buttons, larger timeframe, lower leverage. Whatever your individuality can tolerate. I am generally not wrong when it comes to the bigger picture. The market will bait you with fomo and fear. "The hardest thing to do sometimes is to do nothing" RealisedGains Investing 8 August 2024 10:21 UTC+08:00 Based on this chart^, the next to spike in my opinion would be $GLD $XAU $XAG. Silver is now trading back at 26$/ounce. Faster returns would be $TLT but safer returns would be commodities, with oil also showing recession risk. I'll break this one down soon but keep a look out on these! Once again watch $VIX and the Inverted Yield Curve. Should be some discounts in the next month. Unknown 8 August 2024 10:29 UTC+08:00 I like $SLV $XAG at 25. 7-25. 3 if we get there. Would be a great entry imo. Positional trade play. Or just sell cash secured puts since it's only $23-24 on $SLV silver trust, it would only requite 2. 5k margin to pull this off. I would go out a few months expiration because I think that a drop would cause an IV spike which you should capitalise to collect premiums. Another alternative is a long call ladder or a call back ratio strategy. RealisedGains Investing 9 August 2024 07:52 UTC+08:00 One for the history books. Happy Birthday Singapore! 🇸🇬🥳Can't remember the last time I saw a more than 10% increase change on $BTC. That being said, will very heavily be dependent on what Japan does next week. If they do continue to dump US debt, raise their own rates, we could still see pullback. I am only going to be buying my Silver/Gold and holding my China for this period. Still think US tech is overvalued! Unknown 9 August 2024 07:52 UTC+08:00 Unknown 9 August 2024 07:56 UTC+08:00 Likely we go back under 60k for $BTC still. It's a 12-13% day and volatility is back. Watching $BTC supports at 57. 3-58. 3k. RealisedGains Investing 9 August 2024 18:24 UTC+08:00 Was watching the break of structure at 62k if y'all were following. That was the 0. 618 golden resistance and supply zone from previous support before the initial drop. Unpopular opinion: I think $BTC will likely act with gold this time and enter the bullrun LATER only in December perhaps during the Santa Claus rally/lower volume season. I think when the Yield Curve inverts fully capital will flow out of most assets from stocks into Bonds, Gold, Commodities. RealisedGains Investing 12 August 2024 05:12 UTC+08:00 58. 3k is here 🫡 $BTC once again from the top at 62. 7k I can see weakness ✌🏼 RealisedGains Investing 12 August 2024 05:37 UTC+08:00 BREAKING: Iran & Israel crossing red-lines! Per intelligence reports, Middle East war should start tomorrow or sometime tonight. I could be wrong but this could send Bitcoin $BTC to 38K (now 60K) and send Gold $XAU to 2700. Oil $WTI back above 85. Not asking you to short but I am not buying here. Can just opt to sit out awhile. Unknown 12 August 2024 05:40 UTC+08:00 I would recalibrate these levels lower if war happens since we bounce at 49k and did not hit my 48k $BTC target. Once again, I do not know anything. I just try my best to make educated guesses in this market. Been going well for a couple of years now though 🤷🏻‍♂️ the record should show, I am still half-decent and profitable at trading I guess. Unknown 12 August 2024 05:53 UTC+08:00 Not permabearish, just think we're walking into September/October seasonality weakness and some headwinds - still at lower lows and lower highs. Everyone looks like a genius in a bull market. After all, the saying goes "a rising tide raises all books". Well we HAD a mini bull market the last 1-2 years. Now is the time for some caution. I can obviously still take the shorter-term trades but I am giving you a zoomed out version for context. Unknown 12 August 2024 06:01 UTC+08:00 Market normally taps liquidity top before a drop and vice versa. You had another opportunity to enter shorts at 61. 8k yesterday. With TP at 58. 3/57. 3k (that's a $4. 5k down move). Place SL slightly below latest high (62. 4k would be $800 away). At least a 1:4 risk:reward trade. I have a more developed model using Kelly's Criterion to calculate expectancy but you get the gist. I am not a math wizz, I am just a degenerate that got B for stats in University. Unknown 12 August 2024 06:01 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 12 August 2024 09:57 UTC+08:00 U. S. Stocks and Bond Yields are now in sync, and correlating. Which means that going forward, further weakness in the economy or inflation will implode stocks. In the past, good news was good news and bad news was good news. This is not the case now. With the yield curve un-inversion steepening, this means that short-term rates are expected to fall and this only happens when something in the economy is threatening to break. I said it before, rate cuts are not bullish; they are an emergency measure. RealisedGains Investing 14 August 2024 03:47 UTC+08:00 ^ As per above. USDSGD testing new lows moving to 1. 31 today with talks of rate cuts. $TLT Long-dated Bonds $XAU $GLD Gold making a steady climb. Volatility is likely to come during CPI/PPI in the next few days. I will be bullish $BTC Bitcoin after September like I said. Still think we're chopping around this range and we make our big move closer to October. Better opportunities with equities currently! RealisedGains Investing 14 August 2024 04:55 UTC+08:00 All eyes on Defence StocksGuess what all that spending does?It weakens the dollar. Guess what that weak dollar does?It helps crush the price of oil. Guess what crushing the price of oil does?It pisses off oil producers. Guess what pissed off oil producers do?They go to war. Guess who produces the most weapons in the world?The USA. Guess what all those weapons produced does to jobs?It creates them in sr political leadership districts?Guess what those jobs and fat paychecks do to votes? They vote for that senior political leadership. I have reiterated this counter a few times, but why I love $LMT is because no matter what, you know the USA will go down guns blazing (they love their guns). Lockheed Martin is the largest defence contractor globally, earning 2/3 of revenue from F-35 Fighter Jets. RealisedGains Investing 16 August 2024 03:21 UTC+08:00 Scaled down the leverage, holding for a longer positional play till mid to end of September likely. At 57. 3k $BTC like I said. Unknown 16 August 2024 03:26 UTC+08:00 Exiting the $QQQ I bought from the cash covered puts at 438-442 last week here at 474-479. Holding my China $BABA $KWEB still. A lot more relief since I was down 40k last month. Meme insolvent stocks are running rampant again. Look at $CLOV $CVNA, but these are off low volume! Unknown 16 August 2024 03:29 UTC+08:00 In May 2024 during the meme-coin mania, I said I went $1000 each into $CLOV and $BNGO at $1. 08 and $1. 1 respectively. Today these are trading at $2. 60 and $0. 50. Up $1. 6k on $CLOV, down $500 on BNGO. In hindsight, $CLOV was the only one breaking out of the descending channel and tapping the 200SMA. Then again, both are cash-burning meme stocks in healthcare and genomics, fads that were long overran in 2022. Unknown 16 August 2024 03:33 UTC+08:00 Strong support at 56. 6-55. 8k for $BTC on the near-time frame. I'd flip long there if I was scalping! Unknown 16 August 2024 03:39 UTC+08:00 Expecting a reaction there at the green zone for $BTC. Think we get some relief tomorrow being friday and given the larger implied moves were with CPI, PPI and Retail Sales today. Still not bullish here. Just chop and range which is better for 1-3 day long trades as volatility resets. Unknown 16 August 2024 03:47 UTC+08:00 Quite clearly whenever you see a big increase, you take profits! That was why I was bearish on $BTC. I think $QQQ has had an insane run the last 2 weeks as well. $VIX trading from 64 to 14 today. We were oversold at 538 when I said I bought and now overbought at 474 with decreasing volume. Scale in, scale out. Wider plays don't get chopped out in intraday 0DTE moves. RealisedGains Investing 16 August 2024 04:05 UTC+08:00 Hindsight bias, but I should have bought more direct shares as opposed to cash secured puts for $QQQ at 432-438-442 like I identified as support for $QQQ above. Cash secured puts means it's not very delta positive and I only collected premiums largely from this run-up. Spread trading can be quite profitable if volatility is spiking again though. $BABA closing flat after earnings is also suspicious. Generally the last few economic data have always seen the moves play out like this: Cleveland Inflation (pre-cursor) > CPI (fade) > PPI (real move) > Retails Sales/Earning (extended move). RealisedGains Investing 16 August 2024 08:15 UTC+08:00 Closed shorts at 56. 6k. Scaling in longs till Monday for $BTC likely. RealisedGains Investing 16 August 2024 09:35 UTC+08:00 Bought some monkeypox stocks last night for the culture. No not pop culture, viral culture. $EBS $SIGA $TNXP. This is the 2nd major news incidence of monkeypox the last time being May 20, 2022. It ran up for 3 months after. SIGA and Emergent Biosolutions already manufacture smallpox vaccines. Tonix is also developing a shot to prevent people from contracting smallpox and monkeypox. Unknown 16 August 2024 09:35 UTC+08:00 Unknown 16 August 2024 09:38 UTC+08:00 On a cursory evaluation, Compared to an average industry PE Ratio of 17. 16, $SIGA is valued the cheapest with an 8. 15 PE and the largest MCap between the 3. Do your own DD. Same thesis as why you would buy Zoom $ZM during the WFH pandemic, and Moderna $MRNA during COVID. Unknown 16 August 2024 09:42 UTC+08:00 Apparently, economic studies show that during a recession, women purchase more lipstick/makeup over purses and dresses which actually makes $ULTA a defensive name in the stock market. That being said, I know absolutely nothing about lipstick 💄 But I guess if sky is falling, maybe might as well look chio. 📈 If Buffet is predicting a recession ($277B raised in cash) then $ULTA should accelerate vs. not do well during it. Along with Buffett reducing his Apple $AAPL stake of almost 50%, he added two new positions:Ultra Beauty $ULTA - $266M sharesHeico $HEI - $185M shares RealisedGains Investing 16 August 2024 10:14 UTC+08:00 When to use Log Scaling in Charting?There are two main reasons to use logarithmic scales in charts and graphs (Option + L on TradingView). The first is to respond to skewness/kurtosis towards large values; i. e. , cases in which one or a few points are much larger than the bulk of the data. The second is to show percent change or multiplicative factors. How to use ATR to place stop losses. For a weekly trade. Given current $BTC Weekly ATR is 7000, using an SL at 1. 5x ATR that’s 10500. Given downwards move have a higher volatility skew, and we can escape drops to be faster on average than rises. For instance, if targeting TP 44-46k, we should place SL for shorts at approx 69k (= 57300+10500) given mark price of 57. 3k. Not great R:R, we’re at 1:1 now. Still working on my Excel Trade Journal, will release in a few weeks. Unknown 16 August 2024 10:14 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 16 August 2024 20:29 UTC+08:00 Expecting equities to cool off and gold to continue the move up now. 4th Attempt at breaking 2500. I think we break through here along with Silver 🫡 Unknown 16 August 2024 20:35 UTC+08:00 $QQQ rejecting off resistance^. Exited fully longs, flipped short. Will look for re-longs in September. Unknown 16 August 2024 20:43 UTC+08:00 Scaling in longs for $BTC slowly, expecting the real demand zone at 53. 9-54. 3k. Will long there! Unknown 16 August 2024 20:44 UTC+08:00 This was previous $BTC support from the first drop from 70k and the 0. 618 of the entire retracement of the move up from 49k. Good zone barring no other calamitic news it should hold! RealisedGains Investing 16 August 2024 21:47 UTC+08:00 Gold breaking 2500 LIVE right now 🫡 Recession under way! I think we're going 2700 next. Unknown 16 August 2024 21:49 UTC+08:00 ^^^ As per this $XAU to 2700 eventually. I see oil $WTI moving up next. For Bitcoin $BTC to drop to 37/38k it needs a catalyst, can't see one right now. Unknown 16 August 2024 21:53 UTC+08:00 ^ You go back to hedging the US Market here. Refer to playbook above. China performing, Gold/Silver surging, Long Bonds starting the move up. 2nd spike of $VIX possibly still to happen. Think $MLCO & $NIO are speculative bets that might play off. The former suffering from short-term headwinds of China regulatory crackdowns to prevent capital outflows, the latter with high cash flow albeit still unprofitable but starting to post good deliveries. Unknown 16 August 2024 21:53 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 17 August 2024 04:18 UTC+08:00 Gave y'all gold $XAU & silver $XAG since 1800s and 24^. Even a reminder at the lows last week. Scroll up throughout the threads. I wouldn't be shorting here. Price discovery mode. Normally commodities spiking still spell tail risk for equities, so I don't think we are out of the woods yet for US ETFs despite this run-up. RealisedGains Investing 17 August 2024 05:03 UTC+08:00 $VIX now at 14. 81 from 64 2 weeks ago. In an average volatility regimes it would take 4-6 months to retrace what it has done in the last 2 weeks. Closest reference would be in 1994-2000 we had a 12x run on NDX with 10-20% and even 40% pullbacks during a period following fed hikes and soft cuts. Volatility was the cost of trading during these periods. However, not at such obscene valuations. So much for the FED's second mandate of price stability. RealisedGains Investing 20 August 2024 09:16 UTC+08:00 $CLOV up by 300% since I posted above in May ^^ Currently trading at 3. 20 from 1. 08 as per previous. Improves Full-Year Guidance on Strong Performance. Like I mentioned, I still believe in $NIO and I think $MLCO is a probably swing trade as well. This all comes with the weakening US dollar! Unknown 20 August 2024 09:20 UTC+08:00 I am back in $NIO & $MLCO here as well from 3. 83 and 5. 18 ^^^ posted above. Will be looking for a double-up on these. These are both China/Asia exposure. The latter being a casino group with chains in Macau and Phillipines, they announced nearly a US$45mln share buy back 21 hours ago. Pretty good timing for both these buys. With $NIO now trading at 4. 09 in it's $9866 HK Market counterpart, and $MLCO at 5. 55! Unknown 20 August 2024 09:24 UTC+08:00 Good close for $BTC shorts at 56. 6k here last Thursday^^. $VIX still being crushed for equities means we might tap resistance at 63-64k at the upper extreme in this lull period. Still in my $BTC spot bag. I currently am only use futures to hedge spot. Think this moves happen nearer to unemployment claims, Powell's speech and the Jackson Hole Symposium on Saturday. No trade zone now. RealisedGains Investing 20 August 2024 13:30 UTC+08:00 I still think Crypto $BTC continues to go up till Thursday/Friday, this goes for equities as well, with the dollar dropping, USDSGD now at 1. 30xx. No news is good news. I would take profit for $BTC at red region 63. 8-65. 9k if on leverage. While I am cautious of weaker seasonality in September. This year might potentially play out like 2007 when the FED lowered rates after their hiking cycle on . . . 9/18! S&P rallied from mid-Aug to the top on Oct 11, 2007. Market rallied 3% from the first 50 bp cut on 9/18/07 then topped on 10/11/07. It then rallied 1% from the 25 bp cut on 10/31/07. After that it was game over. One last hurrah. I am still going to be betting that bonds will outperform stocks in the next few years, hence why I am still in $TLT and China. Unknown 20 August 2024 13:30 UTC+08:00 Unknown 20 August 2024 13:42 UTC+08:00 I drew this almost a year ago ^^^ thinking $SPY would push to 525 from the lows of 380 where I first longed. I took all my profits at 525 and have not bought back US since then. Never thought I would be thinking 590-600 now. Yet I think we're getting there now. TLDR; rate cuts to me are bearish because they are meant to fix and throw a lifeline to a dying market. The first cuts however normally come with emerging problems and the market can still run upwards off the backs of temporary stimulus and buy the dippers before it does a harder correction. So give or take if history rhymes again and this is a 07 scenario with consumer debt unwinding, a further 3% rise can bring $SPX to 5900-6050/$SPY to 590-605 area +- 1-2 percent where we top for the year. All speculation ofc. RealisedGains Investing 22 August 2024 22:06 UTC+08:00 Targeting 2467 on $XAU from 2529, should bounce there. As of now, still holding $BTC long from 58925 targeting 63-64k. I might close $BTC longs here or tighten stops now as we have not reached my target by the red folder days and I think it's wise to derisk into the FED meetings with Powell and the Symposium on Saturday. We are already overbought!If we get cuts on FOMC, I think $TLT extends further upwards. Dot plots already pricing this in! Unknown 22 August 2024 22:06 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 23 August 2024 00:04 UTC+08:00 Still short on $QQQ from 479 ^ above. Closed longs on $BTC to de-risk into the red folder days tomorrow. Gold $XAU briefly wicked into 2472 earlier. Low enough already. I am expecting $XAU to resume the rally while equities/crypto pull back. We've had something like 9 up days and 1 flat day since the crash a few weeks back. Some sort of record there but I am lazy to pull up the stat. RealisedGains Investing 23 August 2024 22:52 UTC+08:00 Powell Goes Dovish on his FOMC speech:1. Labor market cooling, 2. inflation under control, and 3. rate cuts are on the horizon. Likely already priced in, so I am taking shorts here now for a scalp. We await the Jackson Hole Symposium tomorrow next! RealisedGains Investing 23 August 2024 23:07 UTC+08:00 How I am preparing for the upcoming FOMC Meeting:I believe rate cuts are coming this September but that does not always mean bullish. Discussing what is the neutral rate of Inflation and Interest. Do leave any feedback if you have any specific stocks/crypto/bonds for me to research on. Will improve the quality in the future!Link: https://youtu. be/_4BuNxF5vDI Unknown 23 August 2024 23:12 UTC+08:00 I am not leveraged on any of these positions. $QQQ and $SPY have unwinded all the dovish talk gains in the last 30 minutes. On a larger time frame we are still overbought so the max I can see $BTC going is 63-65k. However, I will be bearish if we do not break those levels by September. A more straightforward play I am also doing would still be long gold or bonds though. The issue with cutting rates in the September 17/18 FOMC Meeting is that it can possibly reignite inflation and undo the work over the last 2 years. Powell is a master artisan. Wealth inequality has broken new records since 2008. Housing affordability is at an all time LOW & he essentially says the fix is more QE. There will come a point that the bottom 50% is going to get really loud. However, it is still an election year and numbers are still being doctored as I mentioned with the Jobs data a few days back. RealisedGains Investing 24 August 2024 07:08 UTC+08:00 Got our 64. 8k $BTC from 58. 8k precisely^ to the point I wrote 2 days back. Equities still muted means I expect Crypto to pullback in September still with the FOMC. At the top of the range now 👍🏼 RealisedGains Investing 26 August 2024 16:26 UTC+08:00 Looking for $XAU Gold to go to 2637-2655 by October. Probably earlier. Think this happens with an equities/crypto pullback into the Sep 17th FOMC Rate Cuts. Quite sure we get rate cuts based on the Jackson Hole speech on Saturday already. RealisedGains Investing 26 August 2024 21:40 UTC+08:00 Why Rate Cuts can be bearish?First Rate Cut - Jan 3, 2001 (Dot Com Bubble)- S&P 500 fell ~39% next 448 days- Unemployment rose another 2. 1%First Rate Cut - Sep 18, 2007 (Sub-prime Mortgage Crisis)- S&P 500 fell ~54% next 372 days- Unemployment rose another 5. 3%First Rate Cut - Sep 18, 2024 (AI Hype)- ?- ?Extending the sample size we have 1995, 1998, and 2019, check this out. In all 3 of those examples, unemployment was trending down. 2019 was at a 50-year low. Every other time when unemployment was trending up (as is now) and we saw rate cuts, it led to a sell off in equities and a continued climb in unemployment rate. I talked about this on the Youtube Video as well! RealisedGains Investing 26 August 2024 22:24 UTC+08:00 Have flipped short from 64. 8k $BTC after closing the longs from 56. 6k previously. I am now targeting fresh lows. Chart is there if you want to zoom in. I'll have interim targets as well. I think we'll have to wait for FOMC on September for the real move so still have to be prepared for chop! Unknown 26 August 2024 22:28 UTC+08:00 $CVNA is over 5 billion in debt trading at $156 now with a 32 Billion Market Cap. If we get rate cuts (and we should). I think this tops here. VERY VERY speculative play to short an individual counter but there's good R:R here. However, I think a safer play is still long $TLT $IQD $IEI. Also think Gold will behave like in the last cycles, pulling back initially on rate cuts. Long-dated bonds will react directly up first while gold/bitcoin should give a pull-back before rising. Unknown 26 August 2024 22:28 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 27 August 2024 18:51 UTC+08:00 Shorted from 64. 9k after closing off longs from 56. 6k for $BTC. Bearish structure for now. Looking at 61. 8k-61. 5k for temporary support today before dropping down further once rate cuts happen. RealisedGains Investing 27 August 2024 22:14 UTC+08:00 Targets hit $BTC. Should go lower in the next few weeks. 🤞🏼 So far on a very good streak since a few months back. Haven't made any bad trades tbh. Unknown 27 August 2024 22:18 UTC+08:00 Not many called $BTC 64. 9k from 56. 6k like I did here^ and I think fewer are calling for fresh lows from 64. 9k. I'll put my money where my mouth is. Think rate cuts are bearish. 👍🏼 Good luck with trades! I think the down move is done for the day for now if you are scalping. RealisedGains Investing 28 August 2024 05:52 UTC+08:00 $BTC at 59k already 👀 I think we bounce here. $NVDA earnings tomorrow. I am still short $QQQ as well from 479 👍🏼 Interesting how it is moving at 5am. Rarely does this out of the US/Asian Sessions. Unknown 28 August 2024 05:54 UTC+08:00 My final target here is 37-44k $BTC by October by the way^. I will be prepared if it happens. RealisedGains Investing 28 August 2024 06:12 UTC+08:00 BREAKING: Super Micro Computer stock, $SMCI, crashes over 8% after Hindenburg research accuses company of accounting manipulation. Stock has gone from 1. 2k to 490 in a matter of months. There are some roaring red flags in the market right now I'd stay away from tech tomorrow into $NVDA's earnings. Unknown 28 August 2024 06:15 UTC+08:00 $BTC back at 57k 👀🥰 RealisedGains Investing 28 August 2024 16:16 UTC+08:00 Due to overwhelming demand, we've already hit the maximum amount of free calls already this week. Will be pausing bookings for now. If you want you can still sign up for the full course soft-launch for the same access. Will relaunch this again in the coming months. Thanks! RealisedGains Investing 28 August 2024 23:14 UTC+08:00 You can likely hold this $CVNA short down to zero if tech unwinds. $QQQ down 1. 4% today. I am still holding shorts. RealisedGains Investing 1 September 2024 11:26 UTC+08:00 Would The Crash Be Bigger Than 2008?Markets are irrational. Feeling like the US markets are constantly being propped up by the Fed because the economy is so much more dependent on asset prices than it was back then. If the stock market went down by 50% in let's say Singapore noone would even know. If the S&P went down 50% it would be complete meltdown of the economy. Keeping the "numbers up" seem more important even it means a lower standard of living for the average Joe. I think we will see a repeat of an increase in wealth gap which will benefit people with assets and put the poor at an even bigger disadvantage. Happy Sunday!Source: Anticipating Economic Turmoil: A Look at the Potential for a 2025 Stock Market Crash RealisedGains Investing 1 September 2024 11:29 UTC+08:00 Still holding shorts on US Equities. Safer play would be to long Gold, $TLT albeit lagging moves. Will wait until next FOMC! RealisedGains Investing 4 September 2024 01:55 UTC+08:00 The week ahead in markets:Tue 9/3: Aug ISM manufacturing indexWed 9/4: JOLTS job openings, Fed Beige Book (Sept meeting period)Thu 9/5: ADP payrolls, initial and continuing jobless claims, Aug ISM services indexFri 9/6: Aug Non-farm payroll report, multiple Fed speakersThe ISM Manufacturing PMI report today saw a fall to 46. 8 in July of 2024 from 48. 5 in the previous month, firmly below market expectations of 48. 8, reflecting the sharpest contraction in US factory activity since November 2023. Last months reaction to weak ISM manufacturing PMI numbers. Triggered a 3 day -9% correction on SPY. This is within cyclical correction and normal seasonality. Notice how $CVNA $BTC both topped at the same time, it's time for some risk-off action again. Hyper-bearish on the dollar right now with rate cuts in the next few FOMC meetings. Unknown 4 September 2024 01:59 UTC+08:00 🧵 Job growth is currently decelerating at a rapid clip just as it did starting in the 3Q of 2007 🚨. The Sahm Rule has recently been triggered! Claudia Sahm created it as a way to time the onset of recessions. The rule states that when the 3-month moving average of the unemployment rate is 0. 5% higher than the lowest 3-month moving average of the preceding 12 months, a recession is likely (but not guaranteed). I for one, would gladly welcome a good 🧸 bear market. No real need for much leverage, one good short into a nice long is all you need to set you up for life! Unknown 4 September 2024 01:59 UTC+08:00 Unknown 4 September 2024 02:07 UTC+08:00 Markets took a significant hit today. I am still short. Lower targets $QQQ $CVNA $BTC. 🩸Don't say I didn't warn ya. Every year without fail, people say this time is different. Welcome to the September effect! This time we have an election year, the FED pivot along with it and one of the most insane QE runs since COVID. Why'd I choose to short $CVNA instead of $NVDA? Well. . . for one, who shorts $NVDA? lol. That's a scary short who can easily pump the stock at any conference with Jensen Huang at the helm but I wouldn't be a buyer at these price still. $CVNA can probably still easily see another 10-20% drop. RealisedGains Investing 4 September 2024 05:44 UTC+08:00 INTEL faces delisting from Dow as Stock sinks furtherMarkets took a big hit today (4/9/24) on August ISM data, with tech and risk assets falling further. Including the after hours decline, $NVDA's drop marks the largest single day loss of market cap for a stock in history. Speculation is growing also that Intel (INTC) will be delisted from the Dow Jones Industrial Average as the microchip company’s stock continues to decline. Intel was one of the first technology companies to join the Dow index back in 1999 at the height of the dot-com stock market rally. It has been a member of the Dow for 25 consecutive years. However, the Reuters news agency is reporting that Intel’s status in the Dow Jones Industrial Average is now under threat after the company’s share price has declined 54% this year. Intel is not only the worst performer in the Dow, an index of 30 blue-chip stocks that’s meant to represent a cross-section of the U. S. economy, it is also the second-worst performing stock in the benchmark S&P 500 index this year. Reminds me of the time ExxonMobil $XOM was delisted from the DOW in 2021 to mark the final point of capitulation before it resurged. As a contrarian, de-listment to me is bullish 😂 Source: $INTC -4. 80% RealisedGains Investing 4 September 2024 09:35 UTC+08:00 Next move for $BTC is the real move 🩸 - We are 2 weeks away from September FOMC! 🤞🏼 Fear is back on the menu - 55k $BTC this morning with US futures $ES $NQ still creeping lower. RealisedGains Investing 5 September 2024 01:28 UTC+08:00 $NIO up 20% and $MLCO up 10% today! Good day for China and Tech EV. Holding these still from ^ 3. 83 and 5. 03US July JOLTS survey of job openings fell to 7. 673M, far worse than the 8. 1M expected and 7. 910M (revised from 8. 184M) in June. This data tilts the odds further in favor of a large 50-bp point rate cut at the September 18 FOMC meeting. US 10yr and 2yr challenging 3. 75% level. Just to be clear, still bearish US equities for September but I am long China exposure. RealisedGains Investing 5 September 2024 14:30 UTC+08:00 Entered into more $XAU at 2479 and still in $TLT from 2 days back. I think as I mentioned previously, Gold might take awhile to be bullish, and Crypto even later, long dated bonds will move first. Gave y’all these levels months ago saying we would run for $BTC from 49k to 65k exactly (https://t. me/realisedgains/2066) and reject there to new lows. Same for predicting $QQQ to go to 479 from the 432 lows and reject there (https://t. me/realisedgains/2031). I haven’t changed my stance but I think the move comes AFTER the FOMC Rate Decision and into the end of September. If you've been here long enough you'll know I've done good trades multiple times before 😮‍💨 Just stay low leverage and humble!September 20 marks triple witching, which occurs only four times a year—on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December—and can lead to a sharp increase. I expect volatility the last 2 weeks of September 🩸 RealisedGains Investing 5 September 2024 17:51 UTC+08:00 $NIO trading 4. 48 pre-market! Another massive move along with my gold $XAU long trade going well. I think China lows are in. Still in $TLT from 89 which is breaching $100 now as well! RealisedGains Investing 6 September 2024 14:23 UTC+08:00 Current Positions/Mark Price:$BTC short from 64. 9k /56k$QQQ short from 479 /459$CVNA short from 156 /141$XAU long from 2479 /2520$TLT long from 89 /99. 57$NIO long from 3. 83 /4. 85$MLCO long from 5. 20 /5. 44All very good R:R and entries - All up there if you scroll up and check the counters/timestamp. I've said it before many times the last few weeks - I'm bearish US tech and bullish long bonds/commods/certain Chinese Stocks. RealisedGains Investing 6 September 2024 20:45 UTC+08:00 Unknown 6 September 2024 20:45 UTC+08:00 Unknown 6 September 2024 20:45 UTC+08:00 U. S. AUGUST NONFARM PAYROLLS RISE BY 142,000; EST. 164,000; PREV. 89,000. US JOB NUMBERS HAVE BEEN REVISED DOWN by a MASSIVE 818,000 for the 12 months through March 2024As a result, monthly payroll gains were lowered by ~68,000 a month on average to 174,000 from initially reported 242,000. Gave the support to close shorts for $BTC shorts from 64. 9k at 55. 2k earlier yesterday. Will be looking at a relief rally possible overextending here after the jobs data miss. $QQQ $SPY $NQ $ES will also relief. Longer-term trend still down for the month imo. RealisedGains Investing 6 September 2024 23:19 UTC+08:00 ^ Based on Elliot Wave 3 Impulse on the Image above. This down move for $QQQ $BTC is not over but I think the dark green regions are your first buys. E may not happen if it does not complete the full 5 count wave. So around C I will start flipping long. I've said this before but that will be 44-41-37k for $BTC and sometime for $QQQ $SPY when $VIX hits 35+. I don't know exact levels for sure until I watch the flow on the day itself. RealisedGains Investing 7 September 2024 15:05 UTC+08:00 Today’s Youtube Video will be on Operation Twist and FED Waller's Speech last night and the different ways the FEDs can bailout a crashing market. More of an informative style but will work on including more LIVE analysis. Also, reviving my very Old Tiktok Account as well. Will have to clean up all the content style as I haven't done content since I was much younger but you can subscribe to support!For those enquiring about the 1 Hour Consultation Calls and the Trial. Will re-open more slots in the future. You can book or sign up for the video course here. RealisedGains Investing 8 September 2024 23:22 UTC+08:00 Major economic releases this week (all times SGT)Monday: Wholesale inventory > 10pmTuesday: NoneWednesday: CPI > 8:30pmThursday: Jobless claims, PPI & core PPI > 8:30pmFriday: Consumer sentiment > 10pmNote: No Fed speakers this week due to FOMC blackout and no S&P 500 stock buybacks due to earnings blackout. RealisedGains Investing 9 September 2024 23:26 UTC+08:00 $NIO up 40% to 5. 30 today since I bought in at 3. 83^. Like I said before I am aiming for $7. 30+ on this. Still holding all of the same positions as per previous update. RealisedGains Investing 10 September 2024 14:39 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 10 September 2024 22:55 UTC+08:00 Apple and Google Hit With Huge Fines!Apple just lost a €13 billion tax battle, and Google was fined €2. 4 billion for unfair practices in Europe. These costs could be a small pinch to their financial performances and profit margins, and hence stock price performance. This is amidst fierce battles from competitors including Baidu and Huawei too. One way to mitigate this is to transfer some of these costs over to consumers via higher product prices. Either ways a lose-lose; if you are holding shares or wanting to buy your next iphone. 💁🏻‍♂️Source: Apple and Google Face Major Defeats in EU Court Battles RealisedGains Investing 11 September 2024 07:20 UTC+08:00 Update on Positions:If we do get a push re-break ATHs coming into the elections, I think $SPY could go to 590-605^ for next resistance as what i said here, but I am fairly certain either way that most of my other entries on individual counters here will hold. To me the lows of $NIO at 3. 83 where I bought in will not be touched and I have said I am looking for a double up on this. I have also said $CVNA at 156 would go to zero eventually but I am obviously not holding this short to zero, I will likely be out of majority of the positions at around 81-92. This would be close to a 50% drop and good enough for me. I did finally close some of my $BTC short positions from 64. 9k at 54. 3k-55. 2k as per my screenshots here but looking for re-shorts. Will still hold the $TLT and $XAU $GLD longs as I believe US rate cuts will push this up and further unwind the currency carry trade; with BoJ hiking and the jobs report pushing further rate cut pressures on the US Feds dot plot. RealisedGains Investing 11 September 2024 09:29 UTC+08:00 2024 Presidential Debate LIVE now:Generic ballot update: By the time Biden dropped out, Republicans had gained a narrow lead. Today, Democrats are up by about 2½ points. Via ABC News 538:Major Issues discussed today so far were on the Green Deal, High Inflation, High Crime Rates, Fentanyl Surge, Gun Laws, and Illegal Immigrants. Did the biden-harris inflation act so far really reduce inflation? A reduction in the rate of increase in inflation is not a net reduction; going up 20 and down 9 is not an 11% decrease. Trump responds that: "She doesn't have a plan. She copied Biden's plan and it's like 4 sentences: run spot run" - A book on the Ethics of Keeping Pets. It's basically Kamala's Run Spot Run VS Trump's Drill Baby Drill - Oil actually went negative during Trump's presidency LOL. Unfortunately, I believe both the Harris and Trump plans will only continue federal deficits and make the current inflation problem worse. My 2 cents is that it's frankly too late to turn around. Unknown 11 September 2024 09:29 UTC+08:00 Unknown 11 September 2024 09:29 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 11 September 2024 09:49 UTC+08:00 In other news, $USDJPY continues to unwind like I said. This continues BoJ Ueda's move to strengthen the Yen while the US moves towards the FED Pivot of lowering Interest Rates. $USDJPY just broke 142 for the first time in 2024. The next support is around 125-122, a 25% drop from the June high. This will result in significant pressure to unwind the yen carry trade. I see long treasuries $TLT ripping further up as the dollar hegemony falls. We just broke past 100 yesterday. Also have to watch oil as I just said, making a similar move down on $WTI. They're finally talking about Oil and Fracking during the Presidential News debate. RealisedGains Investing 11 September 2024 11:03 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 11 September 2024 17:32 UTC+08:00 As for $BTC $QQQ $CVNA I still think we're bearish for rest of September. I closed my $BTC short from 64. 9k at 54. 2-55. 2k as stated and re-shorted at 57. 8k so far earlier this morning during the presidential debate. No change in plans. $XAU $TLT still moving up as well. Moves are as expected. Still holding the biases on my positions. TP will be in October likely after FOMC and the Triple Witching. Unknown 11 September 2024 17:32 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 11 September 2024 23:13 UTC+08:00 US core inflation rose 0. 3% in August, driven by higher shelter and travel costs, which reduces the likelihood of a larger Federal Reserve rate cut next week. While core CPI increased 3. 2% year-over-year, the overall CPI climbed 0. 2%, helped by cheaper gasoline. Unknown 11 September 2024 23:13 UTC+08:00 Traders have nearly ruled out the possibility of a half-point rate cut, and the Fed remains focused on labor market softness, which could influence policy decisions in the coming months. Treasury yields rose, stocks fell, and the dollar pared losses following the data release, reflecting reduced market expectations of aggressive Fed action. Unknown 11 September 2024 23:16 UTC+08:00 While I stress this is merely the rate of inflation, inflation is STILL high. To fix this, the Fed's mandate remains focused on keeping labor market soft (by increasing unemployment to lower inflation). RealisedGains Investing 12 September 2024 23:55 UTC+08:00 Gold Hits All Time High$XAU Gold has just hit a new all-time high of $2,555. 25 an ounce. As I've mentioned before, it's just a matter of time. If you bought $XAU or gold jewellery, congrats. Now we'll see price discovery, and on to $2637-2655🫡Source: Gold Reaches All-Time High Amidst US Inflation and Employment Data RealisedGains Investing 16 September 2024 16:14 UTC+08:00 Trump's 2nd Assassination & Debate Rigging Rumours:I think consensus would agree that Kamala narrowly won the Presidential Debate, yet rumours are now surfacing that the questions were pre-rigged for Kamala and that camera angles were positioned to place Kamala in a better light, amongst others. This comes along with the recent Assassination Attempt by Pro-Ukraine Activist, Ryan Routh at the Florida golf course. This comes along with very big volatility red folder days with the FOMC on Wednesday and Triple Witching (Options Kill Zone) into the Weekend. Historically, the last 2 weeks of September tend to be bearish. Position accordingly. Source: Presidential Race in US - a Banana Republic RealisedGains Investing 16 September 2024 19:33 UTC+08:00 Think $TLT moves first then $XAU and finally $BTC as per this trend. As above I am holding my $TLT to 120+ as we cut interest rates to the 400 basis points 'neutral' rate. My thesis is that $BTC will face headwinds and a temporary pullback first along with equities into the FOMC Rate Cuts 18th September, with CZ leaving jail 19th September and Triple Witching for Options on 20th September, along with the Yen-Greenback Carry Trade further unwinding. I did say to run $XAU from 2479 here to 2620+, I have also targeted 60. 5k for the $BTC highs to re-short in my private channel above^ (image). I will remain cautious till September is over. Too much red folder days and volatility markers are flaring. Same positions still but I am doing some minor hedging to delta/gamma neutrality with options. RealisedGains Investing 17 September 2024 23:47 UTC+08:00 Trading inebriated and at Token2049 events but back long on $BTC 😋 Will re-short into Triple Witching likely. Update later! RealisedGains Investing 18 September 2024 14:01 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 18 September 2024 14:23 UTC+08:00 How I am trading the FOMCI am choosing to go slightly negative delta and still bearish into the FOMC because conventionally I have said rate cuts are bearish. There's paltry breadth & volume with an implied move of 1. 2% in either direction. . . highest since the March 2023 regional bank crisis. (Image 1 shown). 3 reasons. (1) The markets in the past cycles have TOPPED into rate cuts(2) This normally comes with big names doing stock splits (remember $TSLA 2022, $AAPL 2020, etc)(3) Yield Curve Un-inversion Steepening, USD JPY Carry Trade Unwinding, Weakest 2 weeks of SeasonalityCould it be that easy?I have no clue for certain what they will do (50 Basis Points looks to be the majority consensus on CME Fed Watch at 63%) (Image 2 shown). I have switched my short positions on $QQQ to a safer 2-3 months DTE bear spread here. With the first long-term trend bearish crossover on my 13/34-week EMA $QQQ vs. $SPX relative chart since the end of '21. . . (Image 3 shown) Unknown 18 September 2024 14:23 UTC+08:00 Unknown 18 September 2024 14:23 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 19 September 2024 02:01 UTC+08:00 Bullish reaction! 50 BPS Cut! Unknown 19 September 2024 02:10 UTC+08:00 Don't say I never share my Private Chat 🤫 Called the 50 BPS Cut, I think this signals recession 👍🏼 Scroll up pinned posts for my track record. RealisedGains Investing 20 September 2024 03:20 UTC+08:00 Tomorrow is another big volatility day: Triple-Witching event is tomorrow, Friday. Search it up if you don’t know what it is. It happens quarterly and whipsaws the market. This time though, it will be $5 Trillion worth of US options that will expire and disappear as traders roll their positions or enter new ones. Generally for FED FOMC Decisions, this is the play bookDay 1 is the overreaction. (Yesterday)Day 2 is the reaction to Day 1 (Today)Day 3 we find out what the market really thinks about the Fed decision. What I am expecting tomorrow? $SPY 564 to 566 would not surprise me on the Open tomorrow. It may pump after that, or it may trade flat until 9/23 then pump going into 10/4 JOBS REPORT. Although there's really not much upside. Additional, we have the SPX Re-balancing After-hours on 9/20. Easier to not trade these last 2 weeks of September and stay flat/low leveraged/defensive like I said. RealisedGains Investing 20 September 2024 16:41 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 20 September 2024 19:28 UTC+08:00 FOMC Post-Mortem AnalysisMarkets are set to open today lower, with $SPY looking to open near 566 like I mentioned yesterday ^ to retrace the large gap up (currently at 567 mark price from yesterday's 570. 91 close). Just earlier today, we had the Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision at 12pm GMT +8, 20th September 2024, following directly after the US - Ueda decided to hold its policy rate steady instead of hiking rates, allowing inflation in Japan to continue to tick up. I believe this allows the carry trade to continue with Japan offering a lifeline to the US. I think this decision will allow the cogs to keep going for a couple more weeks but I still see a decent-sized correction before the EOY Santa Claus Rally. I write about my thoughts in-depth in my first newsletter here along with my concerns from the FOMC 50 Basis Points Cut, Yield Curve, Carry Trade, and Recession Risk. Newsletter: FOMC 50 Basis Points Cut, Yield Curve, Carry Trade, and Recession Risk. RealisedGains Investing 21 September 2024 02:35 UTC+08:00 Asians got the gold bug 💛China’s US Treasury holdings have declined by 30% & still buying Gold on record levels. I can only believe this is a long-term move to attempt to disrupt the US reserve currency hegemony by backing the future BRICs currency with collateral. I will be TP-ing my $XAU Gold from 2471 and looking for re-longs into further highs (Have attached my TP Zones - image attached). Similar for $XAG silver. Bonds, commodities and gold today are starting to signal risk off conditions. I've written in my newsletter a read regarding the next possible heavy volatility day on October 9th, 2024. Why is Oct 9, 2024 important? It's the day the FED releases the minutes from this week's rate cut meeting. (Minutes are released 3 weeks from the meeting). My view seems to be contrarian to what most gurus are saying but doesn't hurt to be cautious here. Unknown 21 September 2024 02:35 UTC+08:00 Unknown 21 September 2024 02:35 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 24 September 2024 13:47 UTC+08:00 China finally starting a Bull Market?We’re seeing a big up move today in the HK China Markets during Asian hours; if you recall I did say to hedge the markets and I am still in my China, Long Duration Bonds, Gold & Silver which are still trending up since I made the call here at the August Lows. Look at how well $MLCO, $NIO performs today. Unlike other pages, I have been reiterating to buy China at supports these last few months consistently. I am still on the stance that the US rate cuts are bearish for US equities. We are still bullish on momentum for China, Gold, Silver, Bonds - Bitcoin will also follow suit but will have a lag effect and face some headwinds due to more of its global exposure. If you’re asking what I think moves up next? My best guess would be oil $USO along with shipping, materials in a few months. Thesis for each:China $HSI: breaking out a multi-year resistance trend line with confluence in fundamental changes by the PBOC (People's Bank of China). Gold $XAU: Japan and China, dumping US treasuries and bonds with the carry trade further unwinding while bolstering increases in gold reserves. Silver $XAG: Cup and Handle convincingly broke out and Gold to Silver Ratio still shows that its yet to make its big move. Long Duration US Bonds $TLT: A cut in Interest Rates directly causes bond prices to go up, with long durations more related. As the FEDs tend to do multiple rate cuts and with this larger 50 BPS first cut already unprecedented, it shows some stressors in the US economy. Some other counters to look at: $BABA $YINN $CWEB $NMMSource: China's Major Stimulus; cuts Reserve Requirement Ratios RealisedGains Investing 24 September 2024 14:18 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 25 September 2024 01:08 UTC+08:00 Unknown 25 September 2024 01:08 UTC+08:00 Silver $XAG on a rocketship now to 32. I have shifted my TPs for both $XAU $XAG Gold and Silver to 2678 and 32. 9. I last entered these at 2479 and 26. 9 respectively. I think Precious Metals are also signalling a recession. We can see from the Dollar weakness today it's falling even relative to the Yuan $USDCNY despite the PBoC's Stimulus. It's a race to the bottom as countries outbid to devalue their currency to maintain trade competitiveness, hegemony and foreign trade reserves. Really sad for the less fortunate people who have no assets or aren't financially educated. Inflation is in a nasty course. RealisedGains Investing 25 September 2024 09:45 UTC+08:00 Let’s talk Inflation: US Dollar on Life SupportWe all know rate cuts imply that the FEDs are printing - why are they doing this? Aside from trade competitiveness, maintaining hegemony and foreign trade reserves. They also need to devalue their ballooning 35 trillion debt; at the point where 30% of all govt revenue goes to paying off the $100 billion per month just in INTEREST payments on the debt. This is why the debt cannot be covered unless forgiven or inflated, less so far as to cut essential social services, etc. Under Biden-Kamala’s regime, we can see they are simply doing this by devaluing the dollar, and letting assets inflate, hoping the milkshake theory holds, and position into elections (November 5th). Hence equities, commodities, crypto, everything is rallying - essentially back in the roaring 20s just a century later (Off topic: but watch the Great Gatsby, it has a great segment on this 😀)We’re at 100. 281 on the $DXY today. This is reaching a very key point of control and high volume node established in 2015 -2019. I am expect some relief here and a pullback, but the real move like I said should take place around October 9th 2024 for reasons I established earlier in my newsletter. I am Bipartisan, in that, I don’t care for any of the policies Democrats or Republicans make, I am not a US Citizen, I only care about the economy. Same goes with China, I am not a fan of communism, but I like the stock prices, if you search $KWEB $BABA $NIO in this chat; I have been screaming to buy at lows at 24, 71, 3. 8 respectively - I was even at one point 40k down on my 300k exposure to China. Is it too late here? I don’t think so. I know cheap PE when I see cheap PE. As for Oil $WTI $USO, I think this move comes a few months later. If Trump wins, I am quite bullish on Oil personally due to his deregulation pro-energy policies. RealisedGains Investing 26 September 2024 16:17 UTC+08:00 China's Aggressive Move To Revive The EconomyChina's fiscal spending and rate cuts are attempts to revive the economy, assist banks and lift up property markets. Over the past few days, we have seen rises in China and other Asian stock indexes due to fueling optimism. Source: China's $142 Billion Capital Injection: A Game-Changer for Economic Recovery RealisedGains Investing 26 September 2024 20:51 UTC+08:00 Refer to my replied message here on update on positions ^^:Still looking at $SPY to 590-605 for the final tap in resistance and $NIO to a double up from my entry at 3. 83, $MLCO from 5. 10, and $KWEB from 24-25. All performing extremely well. I have taken profit on my $XAU longs like I said from 2471 at 2678 fully today. We have Powell speaking 10 minutes before Market open today, along with Yellen and 6 other Fed speakers. Unemployment Claims today shows the Economy is strong, and actually DID NOT necessitate the 50 BPS initial rate cut, which leads me to suspect that this was a desperation move by the FEDs, possibly covering up a recession, along with their approval in extending government funding today. Unknown 26 September 2024 20:59 UTC+08:00 I got 5/7 right for these positions^, essentially most of the longs. Been difficult to time the top. I thankfully opted to switch my shorts to calendar spreads so I am close to delta neutral as long as we don't break key regions like 610 on $SPY and 525 on $QQQ. Positional trading so expirations are at least 3 months. Still on the belief rate cuts are bearish and you should research October 2007 Price Action after the September FOMC if you want to know why. RealisedGains Investing RealisedGains Investing pinned this message 21:40 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 27 September 2024 00:05 UTC+08:00 $NIO and $MLCO I bought from 3. 83 and $5. 20 (Above^) at $6 & $7. 50 today. Came into these for a double-up like I said and just about got it. . 🐉I rarely give financial opinions here but I am selling calls on these very slightly OTM for split strikes on a 1-3 month expiration, I am happy to be assigned at these prices. 🤗 Worried on headwinds if we get a Middle East War or Ukraine tensions. Like I said, these are speculative bets and NOT YET profitable, so I'll rotate exposure into the more profitable diversified $HSI or $SSI. I took profits on $XAU CFD longs today finally as well. I still see upside but these are my levered positions and I don't want to incur prolonged swap/funding fees. RealisedGains Investing 28 September 2024 01:34 UTC+08:00 Have exited full on $XAU Gold and $XAG Silver just like I said above, ate the whole move perfectly. I have also sold covered calls on China positions yesterday and today. Sharing my resistance zones just once here^. Essentially, if I get assigned on my calls, I am going to double up from all my China levered entries. Chose these based on IV/ATR and implied move over 1-2 months DTE. Will be posting nonsense on the Community Chat and that will be my last group/channel I will be making - Refer to the pinned message for all the channels. RealisedGains Investing 28 September 2024 04:35 UTC+08:00 Market Close Friday Wrap-upUS Equities Market closed red today with the USDJPY carry trade showing signs of unwinding further. Nikkei gapping down 5%. My last very big trade was in July from $QQQ 505 to 438 and then I repositioned into more China longs at the bottom there, entering $KWEB $BABA $NIO. (Refer to replied post^) on China running-up only at the late stage of the year - still has upside but it needs to refuel and consolidate here. I believe that Oil $USO $WTI and Long Bonds $TLT will make the next move up, with Gold $XAU $BTC retracing mildly with equities, and not act as a safe haven asset in the interim, rising later with $SLV making the largest move in December I said here. Although $SPY is at ATH, I want to stress the weakening majors that are carrying the indice. Unknown 28 September 2024 04:35 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 30 September 2024 10:23 UTC+08:00 Update on Positions:$NIO has hit my full target of $7. 50 today in the Asian hours open since my entry at 3. 83 here! That is a full double up from my entry along with most of my other Chinese shares hitting TP zones. I will likely be forced to sell my shares at 7. 50 like I mentioned in this screenshot. My targets for $TLT I bought at 89 is about $120, $KWEB from 25 targeting 38-39, $MLCO still holding. Also bearish neutral on US equities/Crypto since 2 weeks ago during FOMC I updated. My gold $XAU from 1800 where I re-longed supports and targeted 2678 is also closed. I am looking at $USO $WTI next. Same for $XAG at 24 to 32. 9. Will do a full review soon! RealisedGains Investing 30 September 2024 10:24 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 30 September 2024 22:25 UTC+08:00 US Economy is NOT doing well. . . Mr Powell I don't feel so good. . more rate cuts please 🥺 The long contraction continues for the Chicago PMI, coming in today at 46. 6 in September versus 46. 1 in August and 45. 3 in July. This is its 10th sub-50 reading in a row and the 24th of the last 25 months. It has been stuck in a range of 45. 3 to 47. 4 for the last four months. The headline PMI is a number from 0 to 100. A PMI above 50 represents an expansion when compared with the previous month. A PMI reading under 50 represents a contraction while a reading at 50 indicates no change. ISM last month already showed weakness as I wrote in the last week's newsletter below!Source: Is the booming stock market representative that the economy is doing well? Unknown 30 September 2024 22:26 UTC+08:00 In the past. . . bad news, was bullish, and good news, well that was even more bullish. Now that rate cuts are in full swing and priced-in, bad economic news starts getting sold, not bought like during rate hikes. Something to note. RealisedGains Investing 1 October 2024 23:24 UTC+08:00 China Stimulus: Start Of Bull Market?Over the past week, China rolled out a series of measures to ensure that China is on track to hit its GDP growth target. From lowering borrowing costs, cutting reserve requirement ratio, to injecting liquidity, China equities have seen huge rallies of size since 2008. Source: Xi Jinping Addresses Economic Challenges Ahead: Insights on China’s Stimulus Efforts Unknown 1 October 2024 23:29 UTC+08:00 Investors are literally selling Bitcoin to buy gold as geopolitical tensions spike after news of an upcoming Iranian attack. If you recall 3 days ago, I sold my China 🇨🇳 $KWEB $BABA $NIO levered positions at the perfect top, took profit on gold/silver perfectly $XAU $XAG 💛 and I said US 🇺🇸 equities $QQQ $SPY would pull back in October while hedging throughout the FOMC over-reaction till end of September. Today Oil 🛢 $USO is also starting to make it's first moves up, conflict and war generally does this! Been playing this quite well again. I still believe Bitcoin is still a risk asset and not a safe haven flight to safety one. However, the time will come after this drop! I still have spot but am still hoping for 44k before the full bull cycle of course. . . Unknown 1 October 2024 23:29 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 2 October 2024 03:56 UTC+08:00 Middle East war— Oil up before GTA6 🧴Markets are set to close red 🩸 on October 2nd as tensions escalate in the Middle East. I’ve been steadily building my oil position, believing it’s been significantly suppressed. Sure, I do occasionally get trades wrong—oil even went negative in 2020, and I remember Trump boasting about it on TV, justifying bailouts for the oil industry. But my core thesis remains that oil has historically surged during periods of conflict, from the 1973 Embargo to the 1990 Gulf War, and most recently, the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war. 💣Looking ahead, with the Biden/Harris administration nearing its end, let’s not forget they’ve drained the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to its lowest level in 40 years (attached image). The silver lining is that they plan to, and WILL LIKELY, buy it back at these levels below $70, spurring demand. $WTI $USO 🛢 Full write-up/video analysis dropping tomorrow! Unknown 2 October 2024 03:56 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 2 October 2024 17:07 UTC+08:00 What Oil is telling us about the Middle East War 1. Port strikes negatively impact GDP and inflation. 2. Escalation in the Middle East drives oil prices higher, which is detrimental to inflation. 3. We are undergoing one of the largest tightening phases in history, harming GDP. 4. Economic stimulus from China raises commodity prices, with the overcrowded trade short China funds getting margin called. 5. The US face a significant public debt bubble, high valuations, and limited profit growth potential. Biden is depleting the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to its lowest levels in decades to artificially lower gas prices. He promised to replenish the SPR when oil hit around $70 per barrel; however, after WTI dropped to $67. 70 on September 2, he has not made any purchases. As of October 1, 2024, the US has ONLY JUST started purchasing 6 million barrels for the SPR, with deliveries scheduled through May 2025, according to the Department of Energy. Still, they need to allocate funds from the $110 billion sent to Ukraine. If the Harris Administration hadn’t relaxed Iranion oil sanctions to obtain oil for the SPR, (they allowed Iran to export their Oil, at the same time funding the Middle East Conflict) they wouldn’t have been able to engage in this Middle East conflict. Source: Middle East War Breakdown, Oil to Surge RealisedGains Investing 4 October 2024 22:41 UTC+08:00 NFP Non-farm Employment came out actual 254k, over 147k. I closed my shorts of $BTC from 64. 9k at 60. 3k and and $QQQ from $494 at 479. 8 yesterday. Have re-positioned into the open today. I said this on twitter as well; this move will be faded to trap longs. On the longer-term macro, US equities are STILL overbought. I have stood by my China bullish thesis throughout the year and I will stand by my US neutral-bearish positions now. Good jobs data generally implies slower rate cuts, with markets pricing in less 2024 rate cuts! Cheers!🥂 Unknown 4 October 2024 22:41 UTC+08:00 Unknown 4 October 2024 22:41 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 5 October 2024 18:22 UTC+08:00 My Entire 2024 Trades Taken & Rationale- Thoughts on the China Stimulus, Ongoing Middle East War; I rarely go outright bearish on equities so I am currently still on calendar spreads for US Stocks, I think the next cycle will still be commodities/long bonds/China Stocks Continuation. Weekly Video Summary Write-up: Trade Record HistoryYoutube Video: Why I am bullish China, Gold & Oil RealisedGains Investing 7 October 2024 23:19 UTC+08:00 Update on Positions above^Have taken profits on $NIO at 7. 50 from my entry 3. 83. Have taken profits on $KWEB at 38-39 from my entry 24. $MLCO I am still taking profits now at 8. 35 from my entry at 5. 20. Still bearish neutral on US equities/Crypto. Took profits on $XAU from 2471 at 2678 waiting for 25xx I shared above, same for $XAG. I entered USO and Oil last week at 69 and it has been on an insane run-up as well to my first zone at 78. I remain in my $TLT positions as well. I have gave these zones in advance and specified I was holding till there. So far so good! New Youtube Video out tomorrow and on Saturday regarding my Oil targets. Last Youtube Video: China, US, Oil, Gold, Crypto Position Updates RealisedGains Investing 8 October 2024 12:40 UTC+08:00 $NIO, $KWEB, and $BABA are down over 10% during the Asian market open, with $NIO currently at 6. 32, $KWEB at 34, and $BABA at 109. As I mentioned earlier, I’ve closed and hedged all of my Chinese positions at resistance levels, outright selling leveraged positions and placing covered calls on long-term holdings—timing it perfectly at the top. Knowing when to realise gains is equally important!The correction in long bonds (like $TLT, 20Y, and 10Y) is a clear sign that the market doesn’t believe we’ll see 50 bps rate cuts in the upcoming November/December FOMC meetings. It reflects slowing rate cut expectations despite the FED’s more aggressive rhetoric, also causing the yield curve to go into negative territory again. I believe this is because they’re still propping up the stock market ahead of the US elections, which are just about a month away. However, in this latest YouTube video, I explore the possibility of a black swan event, with the middle east conflict still escalating. RealisedGains Investing 9 October 2024 04:57 UTC+08:00 In 4 hours (Oct. 9, at 9am GMT+8), a HBO documentary promises to reveal the true identity of Bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto. The reveal is expected to shake up financial markets and the U. S. election. The documentary may finally solve the 15-year mystery behind Nakamoto’s identity. 7 possible identities are currently being debated. Let's see! Unknown 9 October 2024 04:57 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 9 October 2024 04:57 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 9 October 2024 18:12 UTC+08:00 TLDR: HBO presents Peter Todd as Satoshi (which he denies): • Todd allegedly finished Satoshi’s 2010 post from his own account. • Both accounts went silent afterward. • Todd implemented the “replace-by-fee” (RBF) from the thread. • He mentioned “sacrificing” bitcoins, possibly referring to Satoshi’s. Other news: The US Supreme Court approved selling 69,370 seized Silk Road Bitcoins, worth $4. 3B today. RealisedGains Investing 10 October 2024 02:16 UTC+08:00 FOMC September Meeting Minutes • Substantial majority supported a 50 basis point rate cut to 4. 75%-5%, aligning policy with inflation and labor market data. Few participants supported a predictable, slower easing cycle. • They believed this move would sustain economic and labor market strength while promoting progress on inflation. • Some participants preferred a 25 basis point cut, citing inflation nearing 2% but acknowledging solid economic growth. • Several participants favoured a gradual approach with a smaller cut, allowing time to assess policy restrictiveness. • Participants agreed to continue the path of reducing the Federal Reserve’s securities holdings, selling bonds. RealisedGains Investing 10 October 2024 03:10 UTC+08:00 DOJ charged 18 parties for Crypto fraud & manipulation. • (Breaking) Allegations include Ponzi schemes & fraudulent investment offerings. • Accused parties misled investors with false promises of outsized returns & proprietary trading bots. • The crackdown is part of DOJ’s broader effort, supported by the National Cryptocurrency Enforcement Team (NCET). New Positions Update1. Closing $BTC shorts at 60. 6-60. 8k here. Not changing bias yet. Only scalping. 2. Have sold puts on Chinese Stocks $CWEB $BABA $BIDU $BYDDY $NIO $LI after selling calls at the top (Simple Wheel's Strategy)3. Looking to re-enter the Gold $XAU I close at 2678. I said to short that level to 2561-2571 approximately to begin flipping long. Please refer to thread on Gold. RealisedGains Investing 10 October 2024 06:21 UTC+08:00 FED’S DALY: Rate Adjustments Coming (LIVE)Daly hints at one or two more rate cuts this year, though the September cut isn’t a trend indicator. The Bond Market is not buying it though! with real rates moving higher, and bond spreads at lowest level since 2007. Meanwhile, the US equity market is trading at a 2. 1x market cap/GDP ratio, the highest ever (Buffett Indicator). Only two other times in history saw this: • Jan 2000: 1. 4x • June 2007: 1. 1x • Oct 2024: 2. 1xIn other news, the government’s priorities seem misaligned: • Funding both Israel and Lebanon during a conflict. • Ignoring Appalachia post-Hurricane Helene. • Admitting to decades of fluoride poisoning. Unknown 10 October 2024 06:21 UTC+08:00 Unknown 10 October 2024 06:21 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 10 October 2024 21:13 UTC+08:00 Inflation & Jobless Claims Surge • CPI (MoM): 0. 2% (vs 0. 1% expected) • CPI (YoY): 2. 4% (vs 2. 3% expected) • Jobless Claims jump to 258K (vs 231K expected) 📈Inflation rises alongside surging jobless claims, signaling a concerning trend ‼️. With core CPI increasing, a 25-basis point Fed rate cut seems likely next month. Closed $BTC shorts yesterday and entered a gold $XAU long from 2506 to 2529, anticipating a small equities pullback before the end-of-year Santa Claus rally. Unknown 10 October 2024 21:13 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 11 October 2024 16:12 UTC+08:00 US Elections & S&P 500: A Key Predictor! 🇺🇸📊The S&P 500 has predicted US elections with 83% accuracy since 1928. Polymarkets are now predicting a landslide trump win after the Butler Rally and Kamala's failed Media Blitz. - If the market rises in the 3 months before the election, the incumbent party usually stays in power (12/15 times). - If it falls, the incumbent loses (8/9 times). By these metrics, if you believe it's a Trump win, it's possible we see some stalling to this rally soon. $DJTJoin XM’s US Election Mega Competition! • $100,000 Prize Pool • 100% Deposit Bonus (up to $500) RealisedGains Investing 11 October 2024 18:15 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 11 October 2024 20:31 UTC+08:00 BREAKING: September PPI inflation RISES to 1. 8%, above expectations of 1. 6%. Core PPI inflation RISES to 2. 8%, above expectations of 2. 7%. Both Core PPI and CPI inflation are now back on the rise. Odds of a 50 BPS Rate Cut in November are now lower! RealisedGains Investing 13 October 2024 08:10 UTC+08:00 Bonds Signaling a Recession? 🚨Bonds are crashing as the anticipated Fed pivot seems to have been cancelled. The yield curve has turned negative again, with odds of a 50 basis point cut in November plummeting to near zero. With the US running a 6% GDP deficit while achieving only 3% growth, the bond market is clearly worried. Investors are fleeing Treasuries, moving into gold and stocks, raising alarms of a potential economic crisis ahead. Youtube: How I am trading in a Recession RealisedGains Investing 14 October 2024 07:17 UTC+08:00 Trump’s 3rd Assassination Attempt 👀:BREAKING: (Foreign news first to report) A man, VM Miller, was stopped by police near a Trump rally in Coachella Valley over the weekend. He was found with multiple guns and fake VIP passes, and authorities believe he was plotting to kill Trump. Miller is linked to a right-wing anti-government group, though no official comment from Trump has been made. This incident coincides with heightened tensions as Trump continues his campaign tour, drawing massive crowds. With just 21 days till Elections, tensions are hot 🔥 Source: 3rd time's not the charm says Trump RealisedGains Investing 14 October 2024 10:22 UTC+08:00 🇨🇳 China opens red on Overnight Economic Data: 🩸*CPI: Miss 🔴 0%*PPI: Miss 🔴 -2. 8%China recession fears are escalating with slowing inflation (Opposite of US). As I mentioned, I think when US stocks correct, contagion fears will cause global equities to drop as well. I sold calls since the top on all positions so I am not bothered. I still believe the China bottom is in already. Is Inflation good or bad for the stock market? Well, it's not that simple. . . Rising Inflation if already high would means the FEDs need to be more hawkish. Yet, some form of inflation is still needed for growth. It's a fine balance! RealisedGains Investing 24 October 2024 04:35 UTC+08:00 Markets Pullbacks into EarningsGold, Silver, Bitcoin, Oil, China and even US Markets closed red today. Continued US rate cuts now seem even less likely with bond markets calling the FEDs dovish bluff with the dollar showing strength!We have $MCD shares crashing 10% after hours yesterday with CDC links to an E Coli update and $TSLA making a move up today after hours beating all estimates for earnings except a revenue miss and bouncing nicely off the support trendline. This will provide some temporary relief to $SPY $QQQ equity indices. However, sell volume was 35% higher than Tues indicating increasing bearish concerns. $TSLA bounce after earnings will not have a big effect longer term (was $260 earlier this month). Will be selling puts in China for $BIDU $NIO here for a 3-6 months expiration. Unknown 24 October 2024 04:35 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 25 October 2024 15:49 UTC+08:00 Capri Holdings Takes a 50% Dive 🩸 After judge denies deal👩🏻‍⚖️Following a federal judge’s block on Tapestry’s acquisition, $CPRI fell 50%, erasing 4 years of gains in a day. CNBC calls it a blow to Tapestry’s “house of brands” plan (Coach, Michael Kors, Versace, etc. ). 📉 Unusual Options Activity:• Oct 18: 1,494 contracts added to 40% OTM $CPRI 25 Put expiring today. • Oct 21: Open Interest jumped to 4,485 (from ONLY 65 on Oct 15). Looks like someone anticipated or hedged against the news. Good Volatility for scalps!👀 Pre-Market Plan (10 min to open):• Watching $CPRI for longs at $17-$19 if we get a lower wick here• Also monitoring $WING for potential short due to McDonald’s E. coli issue. Youtube video on this tomorrow! RealisedGains Investing 26 October 2024 09:29 UTC+08:00 McDonald’s: Property or Burgers? Ever heard McDonald’s is more in real estate than burgers? 🏡>🍔? There’s truth to it! Here’s why: when you buy a Big Mac, most of that profit goes to the local franchise owner, not McDonald’s 🍟. Unlike Starbucks ☕️, where sales revenue flows straight to HQ, McDonald’s franchises 95% of its locations, collecting rent and royalties from franchisees. This model means McDonald’s profits from real estate, not just food, while ensuring quality control. They approve, train, and oversee franchises and innovate on products for consistency worldwide. Will the recent E. Coli outbreak impact $MCD’s market leader position? RealisedGains Investing 26 October 2024 17:22 UTC+08:00 📈 Election Stocks to WatchThe November Election could spark major market moves, and XM’s US Election Special Mega Competition is an ideal way to ride the volatility and win cash prizes!What to Watch:➡️ If Kamala Wins: Look into buying precious metals like silver and gold could rise, along with cryptos, on expectations of inflationary policies. ➡️ If Trump Wins: Watch for mortgage REITs that benefit from refinancing surges, such as Rithm Capital ($RITM), which could see gains if rates fall. (I am personally leaning towards this outcome with REITs at a bargain now) Read my guide on Singapore REITs!💸 Why Join XM’s Mega Competition: 1. Top 100 Traders compete for a $90,000 prize pool. 2. Lucky Draw: $10,000 split among 100 traders, so everyone has a chance to win regardless!Boost your trading with XM’s 100% Deposit Bonus up to $500 and get $250 cashback per 50 lots traded. join now for a chance at cash prizes during election season! RealisedGains Investing 29 October 2024 11:37 UTC+08:00 NYSE Plans To Extend Trading HoursThe New York Stock Exchange plans to extend trading hours to 22 hours a day, allowing trades from 1:30 p. m. to 11:30 a. m. Singapore Time. This change means that everyday Singaporeans can now buy and sell U. S. stocks at their convenience, making investing more accessible. With increased flexibility, you can respond quickly to market trends, enhancing your investment opportunities and potentially boosting your financial outcomes. NYSE Extends Trading Hours to 22 Hours to Meet Global Investor Demand RealisedGains Investing 29 October 2024 15:17 UTC+08:00 Will India’s Stock Market Recover or Face Further Decline? 🩸In the past week, India’s stock market has experienced significant corrections. The Nifty50 index has plummeted by 2,000 points, around 10%, dropping from 26,250 to 24,250. Over 100 stocks have seen declines of more than 20%. In light of this correction, Prime Minister Modi has been urging retail investors to increase their market participation, urging Indians to invest 50% of their savings into the stock market, despite being the most overvalued stock market in the world based on PE ratio (yes, more overvalued than the US), despite the prevailing risks. In our latest video, I discuss the reasons behind my cautious stance on India’s stock market, despite its long-term potential. Source: PM Modi says to invest 50% in India's Stock Market RealisedGains Investing 29 October 2024 15:28 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 30 October 2024 16:52 UTC+08:00 China And India's Recent De-escalationChina and India has just recently disengaged their troops from their disputed borders. Their recent step towards diplomacy and strengthening ties went largely underreported and swept under the carpet by Western media. Along with the highly anticipated BRICS summit meeting last week, member nations aim to develop their own trading currency and reduce the dependence on the US Dollar. Source: The India-China Border Deal and BRICS Diplomacy RealisedGains Investing 30 October 2024 17:25 UTC+08:00 📈 Stocks to Watch in a Trump Victory Scenario! 📉As election season heats up, certain stocks are showing potential gains on a Trump win. Here’s a quick breakdown of stocks and assets to consider:1️⃣ $GEO (GEO Group) - Up 150% since midterms, GEO operates for-profit detention centers and could gain from Trump’s tough stance on immigration policies, similar to 2016. 2️⃣ $DJT (Trump Media & Tech) - At $21. 45, Trump’s recent rallies boost investor sentiment. But expect volatility, with some aiming to “buy the rumor, sell the news” around election day. 3️⃣ $TSLA (Tesla) - Trading at $236. 94, Tesla benefits from the Trump-Musk alignment on pro-business policies, though green initiatives may vary. 4️⃣ $RUM (Rumble) - At $9. 12, Rumble stands to gain from Trump’s anti-woke, free-speech audience, positioning itself as an alternative media platform. With a series of high-profile gaffes from Kamala Harris, Trump’s odds have surged to 67% on Polymarket heading into the final week! 🤯🇺🇸 Sign up on XM to trade the US election!Source: Stocks to look out for in the event of a Trump Victory RealisedGains Investing 30 October 2024 21:12 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 31 October 2024 09:53 UTC+08:00 Singapore Stock Market UpdateUncertainty with the US Elections and Federal Reserve pending rate decisions continue to influence global markets, including Singapore's. Nevertheless, here are some Singapore stocks to consider to diversify your portfolio's and mitigate country and currency risks! Not financial advice!Source: Singapore Investment Opportunities 2024 and Market Updates RealisedGains Investing 1 November 2024 00:01 UTC+08:00 Volatility spikes with Elections & November FOMC 1 week away📉 Wall Street slumped Thursday as Microsoft (-5. 1%) & Meta (-2. 8%) warned of higher AI costs despite strong earnings, cooling tech enthusiasm. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed above 4. 3%, adding pressure, while inflation data showed core PCE up 2. 7%—a slight beat, fueling Fed concerns over rate cuts. 📊Investor focus shifted to AI’s profitability timeline, with “Magnificent Seven” stocks hit hard: Nvidia (-2. 8%), Amazon (-1. 7%), & Apple (-0. 4%). The Dow fell 184 points (-0. 44%), the S&P 500 dropped 0. 86%, & Nasdaq slipped 1. 4%. Meanwhile, energy rose 1% thanks to strong ConocoPhillips results. ⚡️As traders await Friday’s job data & brace for Fed’s November meeting, the S&P 500 turned negative for October, & the VIX hit a 3-week high, signaling further volatility ahead. I am still holding the belief that US equities will pullback further into and after the elections. With it being a "sell the news" event. I think this will ripple into global markets as well, with China facing regulatory headwinds, and India continuing it's current pullback. As of now, my main play is to still accumulate the dropping oil $USO and hold onto my precious metals $GLD $XAU. I will look into diversifying into miners $VALE $NUGT in a few weeks. Source: Big Tech pulls market down after earnings RealisedGains Investing 2 November 2024 14:49 UTC+08:00 How to Analyse Financial Ratios 📈Ever wondered which stocks are “cheap” or which countries offer value for money? Financial ratios help gauge market valuation, but they don’t tell the whole story, especially if the Federal Reserve is printing money. It’s crucial to look deeper into specific sectors. Ranking (Most Expensive to Least Expensive): 1. United States (P/E: 26. 01) 2. India (P/E: 25. 75) 3. Singapore (P/E: 12. 13) 4. China (P/E: 9. 36)Understanding Basic Financial Ratios:P/E ratio is calculated as Current Market Price / Earnings Per Share (EPS). A high P/E signals growth expectations but may indicate overvaluation. Forward P/E considers projected earnings, providing insights into future growth. Markets with lower P/Es, like China and Singapore, may be undervalued, while the U. S. and India remain at premium levels. In today's Weekend Analysis I break down which countries are undervalued and deep dive into $NVDA Nvidia's Financials!Source: How to Analyse Stocks for Dummies (Nvidia's Case Study) RealisedGains Investing 5 November 2024 12:38 UTC+08:00 Is the Election’s a battle between Traditional Masculinity VS Woke Culture/Feminism/DEI?Andrew Tate, Donald Trump, Elon Musk, Joe Rogan, and Jordan Peterson have aligned to support Trump in 2024, appealing to young, male, right-leaning audiences who value free speech and personal empowerment. 🦅Meanwhile, Kamala Harris is backed by Taylor Swift, Beyoncé, Oprah, LeBron James, and Meryl Streep, appealing to a broader, progressive base. 💃This high-profile divide reflects the cultural clash driving this tight race—two powerhouse teams vying to shape the future of America. 🇺🇸Source: Is LBJ an Opp? RealisedGains Investing 5 November 2024 12:39 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 5 November 2024 18:00 UTC+08:00 China Position UpdatesI’m back into 30% of China positions here! Still hoping the elections push price down further so I can buy further discounted assets! I am bullish China already for 2025. I’ve sold long-dated cash-secured puts during the recent pullback. Re-entered partially $NIO at 5. 10-5. 30, $BIDU at $92, and $KWEB at $32-33. I believe $NIO and $BIDU have retraced the most and offer significant upside compared to US companies like $CLOV and $CVNA, which are pricing higher despite poor fundamentals. The election is peripheral for Chinese stocks; as my purchases are offshore ADRs, and both Democrat & Republican parties show antagonism towards China. Unknown 5 November 2024 18:00 UTC+08:00 Unknown 5 November 2024 18:00 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 6 November 2024 11:13 UTC+08:00 Bitcoin $BTC hits 8% in the last 3 hours - Consensus leans buy the dip on Harris and sell the rip on Trump 👀 Likely the latter now! RealisedGains Investing 6 November 2024 11:57 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 6 November 2024 15:01 UTC+08:00 BREAKING: Donald J. Trump has won the 2024 presidential election and will become the 47th president of the United States 🇺🇸 RealisedGains Investing 6 November 2024 17:25 UTC+08:00 President Trump's Victory Speech!No longer LIVE but here are some of the main points of Trump’s Victory Speech 🇺🇸🦅Donald Trump expressed deep gratitude and acknowledgment for the historic movement created by his supporters, highlighting how their voices echoed across the nation. He conveyed his appreciation to his family, Vice President-elect, and key figures like Elon Musk and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. , recognizing the significant roles they played throughout the journey to victory. Celebrating wins in crucial battleground states, Trump noted that the results represented a decisive mandate, marking success in both the Electoral College and the popular vote. Commitment to Promises:• Pledged to prioritize unity and fulfill campaign promises with an “America First” approach. Key Figures & Economic Revival:• Promised protections for innovators and a focus on revitalizing the national economy. Closing Message:• Called for unity and pledged dedication to building a stronger, safer, and more prosperous America. RealisedGains Investing 6 November 2024 23:19 UTC+08:00 Asset Classes' Reaction To Trump's VictoryWith Trump's 2024 win, markets have been showing varied reactions across different asset classes. The U. S. Dollar is strengthening amid expectations of pro-business policies. US indexes gapped up and continues to rally higher. Bond markets and commodities are facing some downward pressure as higher interest rates remain in play!The Impact of Trump's 2024 Election Victory Across All Asset Classes RealisedGains Investing 7 November 2024 22:46 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 8 November 2024 11:02 UTC+08:00 FED continues Rate Cuts in Nov FOMCFed Chairman Jerome Powell says he won’t resign even if Donald Trump demands it. Here’s something many don’t know: The Fed isn’t actually part of the government. Unelected officials are controlling your money and fueling inflation. If the Fed were a private company, both it and Chair Powell would have been ousted long ago. Remember, they called inflation “transitory” in late ’21, only to kick off the steepest rate hike cycle in 40 years in March ’22. The U. S. Federal Reserve cut rates yesterday by 0. 25%, citing a “generally eased” job market and inflation nearing its 2% target. Powell noted that future cuts will depend on economic data, with a goal of maintaining balanced growth. As Trump returns, the Fed’s policy may face new political pressures with major economic implications. Source: End the FED Unknown 8 November 2024 11:12 UTC+08:00 I believe Trump's wins and the continued FED rate cuts will remain to prop the market up, and we remain bullish till the end of year. However, I personally will not heavily invest in the US equities market (especially tech) due to my personal disdain towards their high valuations. I am still in my China positions and only in consumer discretionary (recently into $NKE) again. If you’re expecting a bigger pullback on the US Market, I think this still comes… but closer to when we’re under the neutral Fed Funds rate of 4% (We’re currently at 4. 75% as of yesterday’s FOMC cut). Generally going under the neutral rate is when the FEDs are panicking over a crisis. Crypto $BTC is very bullish on the monthly now especially with Trump’s statement on creating a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (similar to Petroleum) so I won’t be shorting this. RealisedGains Investing 9 November 2024 17:52 UTC+08:00 Will Oil Continue to Fall?If Trump is elected president, Gold and Bitcoin may rise (as Trump supports Bitcoin), while crude oil could decline due to concerns over his tariff policy and potential trade wars disrupting the global economy. The World Bank projects global commodity prices to reach their lowest levels in five years by 2025 due to an oil surplus. 🚨 Oil Market Update 🚨Oil futures dropped sharply last Monday, marking the largest one-day percentage decline in over two years, as U. S. and global benchmarks fell after Israeli airstrikes on Iran avoided key oil facilities. 📉 Price Moves: • WTI Crude: Down $4. 40 (-6. 1%) to $67. 38/barrel. • Brent Crude: Down $4. 63 (-6. 1%) to $71. 42/barrel. • Gasoline: Down 5. 4% to $1. 97/gallon. Analysts suggest that easing supply concerns may stabilize oil prices as we enter a weaker demand season. Source: How Trump affects Oil RealisedGains Investing 11 November 2024 20:31 UTC+08:00 China's Stimulus Package Falling Short?Investors were waiting for China's announcements last weekend regarding its fiscal measures to boost its economy only to be met with a lack of aggressiveness in measures to end 2024. China is currently struggling with aging population, property crisis, high debt levels and potential headwinds due to trade tariffs imposed by the US. Source: China’s Stimulus Package Falls Short of Expectations: What’s Next? RealisedGains Investing 16 November 2024 00:33 UTC+08:00 Powell's Recent Rate CutTraders trim bets for December rate cut on Fed chief Powell’s caution, stating that the Fed is in no hurry to cut rates quickly. Following that, indexes are down 1-2% as of now. Could U. S see a period of stagflation; a combination of a recession and high inflation?Source: Powell’s Cautious Fed Strategy Sparks Market Uncertainty RealisedGains Investing 18 November 2024 00:25 UTC+08:00 🚨BREAKING: Russia Hits Ukraine Energy SitesRussia attacked mainly Ukraine energy sites with 120 missiles and 90 drones, causing significant damage. These strikes can cause ripple effects throughout the commodity markets based on simple supply and demand. Oil and gas may face decrease supply due to supply shock. Gold may face increased demand due to geopolitical instability. Gold may see a relief rally from here when market opens tomorrow! Source: Russia's Massive Attack on Ukraine’s Energy Grid RealisedGains Investing 18 November 2024 14:23 UTC+08:00 BOJ Ueda Keeps Rate Decision UncertainAs the yen continues to weaken, market analysts are speculating on a potential rate hike in December, though BOJ's Governor Ueda’s recent comments leave investors uncertain. With the US dollar gaining strength and the BOJ maintaining a cautious approach, the yen is under increasing pressure. All eyes are on the December rate decision. An unexpected rate hike could worsen the carry trade, further strengthening the dollar and potentially creating headwinds for an overvalued equities market. Will Japanese Central Bank adjust rates again? RealisedGains Investing 18 November 2024 18:04 UTC+08:00 NIO Earnings: Comparing with BYD, Li, & TeslaWith NIO’s earnings announcement approaching in 2 days (20th November), its profitability could shape the future 🚗🔋 Today, $NIO is trading pre-market now at $4. 69 up from $4. 49 close last friday - it is still over 90% down from it's all-time high of $66. 7 in 2021. In comparing NIO’s performance to BYD, Li Auto, and Tesla in terms of growth, market outlook, and stock potential for 2024. Can NIO catch up with its competitors or will it struggle to deliver? Get the full breakdown of how NIO stacks up in the EV sector. Source: Will NIO be a dark horse? RealisedGains Investing 19 November 2024 15:21 UTC+08:00 Trump’s Crypto Expansion Continues🚨President-elect Donald Trump doubles down on crypto, with Trump Media in talks to acquire Bakkt after launching his cryptocurrency, World Liberty Financial, and advocating for a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. 📈 Bakkt stock surged 160%, as Trump met Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong to discuss crypto regulations. As of now, $BTC trades at 90k but I see resistance at 105-110k based on Fibo Extensions/Time Arcs. Source: Trump's win remains Bullish Crypto RealisedGains Investing 19 November 2024 15:51 UTC+08:00 Can't help but still think $NVDA corrects as we tease the 4. 618 fibo extension level at 153-155. Under 120 would be a good place to cover puts or reload entries. - Especially since $SMCI one of their main partners has collapsed 90% already (above^). In other news, I think China will recover properly next year and I am still long on it with my Singaporean and Vietnamese Stocks $STI $GRAB $VNM. . . I also like Silver $SLV $XAG now along with Nuclear Stocks $SMR $OKLO $ASPI as we conclude with the Climate Summit 🌡️ this Friday (22 Nov)! RealisedGains Investing 19 November 2024 16:16 UTC+08:00 The Bond Market is calling the FEDs bluff and suggesting Interest Rates to remain Higher for Longer!The US 10-Year Yield has sharply rebounded from 3. 6% in September to 4. 5% in November 2024, returning to levels last seen in June. This underscores a tightening cycle, where long-term yields lag, signaling potential cracks in the Fed’s policy outlook. It also reflects lingering concerns about a second wave of inflation and prolonged higher interest rates. Given this, the December FOMC meeting may result in a pause (at 4. 75%) rather than continued easing to neutral rates (FFR 4%). It also suggests the yield curve will remain inverted longer. If the yield curve uninverts and short-term borrowing costs drop, it would signal the Fed’s intervention to prevent a market crash. TLDR; Heavy cuts could be bearish, hinting that the Fed might know something we don’t. For now, it seems we’re pausing and slowing rate cuts, with clear skies ahead. RealisedGains Investing 22 November 2024 13:24 UTC+08:00 US float 40% China Tariffs idea 😡The U. S. could impose 40% tariffs on Chinese imports in early 2025, potentially shaving 1% off China’s GDP growth. Economists expect further stimulus from Beijing as trade tensions rise. Key sectors like exports and consumption could face significant challenges, with property downturns and unemployment adding pressure. Source: China dragon is DEAD 🥺 RealisedGains Investing 25 November 2024 12:05 UTC+08:00 Oil Prices Hit Two-Week Highs 🛢️Once again, geopolitical tensions involving Russia and Iran are sparking fears of supply disruptions, while robust crude demand from China and India adds fuel to the oil price demands, rallying 6% last week. I believe if economic data weakens and $TLT bottoms, this would signal economic decline, likely leading to reduced oil demand while supply increases. TLDR; While Tensions are Bullish Oil, Worsening economic data could spoil this momentum. Source: Oil holding lows. . . for now RealisedGains Investing 26 November 2024 17:51 UTC+08:00 ($MSTR) a $BTC Proxy or Ponzi? 🚨MicroStrategy has outperformed EVERY S&P 500 stock in 2024, nearly tripling Nvidia’s gains, despite generating just $116M in quarterly revenue. So, what’s fueling this meteoric rise? and will this cause a deleveraging event?$MSTR leverages a reflexivity feedback loop:1️⃣ Rising $BTC prices push $MSTR’s price higher. 2️⃣ This enables them to issue shares or debt (like a recent $3B convertible note with a 0% coupon!). 3️⃣ They use the funds to buy more Bitcoin, further increasing NAV per share. This cycle has driven $MSTR to trade at an incredible 293% premium to NAV—a stark contrast to most holding companies ($GLD $SLV), which trade at discounts to their underlying. But is this sustainable? 🤔Despite its eye-popping rally and massive $136B weekly trading volume (beating even $GME’s meme-stock days), MicroStrategy’s core business has been in decline for over a decade. Is this Michael Saylor’s genius play or a speculative bubble waiting to pop? George Soros’ theory of reflexivity explains how price can drive fundamentals—but as with all bubbles, it works until it doesn’t. Source: Why MSTR concerns me RealisedGains Investing 27 November 2024 19:12 UTC+08:00 How much will Bitcoin drop? 📉 In the last cycles, Bitcoin was more correlated with equities as a risk-on asset. Instead, $BTC this last year has tracked the world's M2 money supply perfectly, roughly with a 10-week delay. Over the past year, it has behaved more like commodities such as gold, with holding companies like $MSTR stocking Bitcoin. Barring any major war/calamity. . . My 2 cents is that this is a temporary pullback to 81-87k and we break upwards to 100k in Q1 2025. Source: Explaining Bitcoin's pullback RealisedGains Investing 2 December 2024 10:07 UTC+08:00 Vietnam 8% GDP Growth Target?Vietnam is charting an ambitious course for its future, setting its sights on an impressive 8% GDP growth rate for 2025. This goal is more than just a number—it’s a bold statement of intent to build momentum toward achieving double-digit growth in the years ahead, similar to China's record performance in the past. Source: Vietnam’s Bold Economic Vision: 8% GDP Growth in 2025 RealisedGains Investing 2 December 2024 12:21 UTC+08:00 Bullish Bitcoin, Bearish Gold 🤔China just discovered the world's largest gold deposit, worth $83 billion. Over 1,000 tonnes of gold are about to be added to the global supply. 🌍 With $XAU posting losses in the Asian opening hours. I expect this move to mean revert back up into the London and NY hours though. Here’s the thing: you can always discover more gold. Its supply expands, and its scarcity decreases over time. $BTC however, doesn’t play by those rules. No one can 'discover' more Bitcoin. Its hard cap of 21 million coins is programmed into the protocol—immutable, unchangeable, and enforced by the world's most secure decentralized network. 🔐Source: China's Gold Rush RealisedGains Investing 3 December 2024 11:01 UTC+08:00 Trump Trade War: Nobody WinsTrump promised that he was ready to sign an executive order placing 25% tariffs on all goods imported from Canada and Mexico on day one of his presidency, with an additional 10% tariff on goods from China. This is on top of earlier threats of imposing 60% tariffs on China and a blanket tariff of 10% to 20% on other imports to the U. S. Can consider looking at commodities like gold and bonds as a hedge against volatility, emerging markets that are less affected by trade wars and technology-focused companies!Source: The Hidden Costs of Trump's Trade War RealisedGains Investing 5 December 2024 22:12 UTC+08:00 you have CEOs/Presidents getting assassinated, war breaking out all over the world, Korea & France government being overthrown, modern day gender war, sky high inflation - and you're wondering why there's so much dissent amongst the masses? 🫥 RealisedGains Community 05.12.2024 22:12:13 5 December 2024 22:12 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 6 December 2024 09:43 UTC+08:00 BTC breaches 100k (NEW ATH)As of now, my longer term macro $BTC view still stands that we are bullish Crypto till next year and we likely hit our Wave Point 3 and then retrace to 4 (above) once Trump gets elected on Jan 21st 2025. Still basing of my charting in Q1 2024 and I had to pivot bullish after the initial 44k price target for my support did not hit. Currently, the narrative of Trump's Election, DOGE, Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, and Global Currency War/Easing makes headwinds strong so I remain bullish into the seasonal santa claus rally strength 💪🏻 My 2 cents ✌🏼 Unknown 6 December 2024 09:43 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 8 December 2024 12:00 UTC+08:00 G7 Manipulating Canadian Dollar?The Canadian dollar (CAD) has slumped to its lowest levels since April 2020, down 6% this year, driven by a rising unemployment rate (6. 8% as of November), weakening economic indicators, and expectations of a 50-basis-point rate cut by the Bank of Canada (BoC) on December 11. I believe that concurrently, the G7 economies are artificially weakening the CAD to push oil prices down, at the cost of Canadian's oil-export-driven economy. Source: Canadian Dollar Slumps as Job Market Weakens and Rate Cut Bets Surge RealisedGains Investing 9 December 2024 18:19 UTC+08:00 China Embraces Looser Monetary PolicyTo boost consumption, China will embark on looser monetary and fiscal policies in 2025 to boost consumption, first ever to change its stance since 10 years ago, away from the "prudent" policies. Copper and China-exposed miners rose about 2+% following the announcement in anticipation of stronger demand from China next year. $NIO is up 6. 5% pre-market and still a longer term play imo! NFA!Source: China's 2025 Economic Strategy RealisedGains Investing 13 December 2024 06:08 UTC+08:00 Does Seasonality Matter in Trading? 📈December is historically a good month for the S&P 500 with a 73% win rate and an average return of +1. 30% over the past 50 years. As seasonality remains bullish I believe think the Santa rally will continue as active managers play catch-up to their benchmarks. Source: Will we get a Santa Claus Rally? RealisedGains Investing 17 December 2024 12:06 UTC+08:00 Silver Outlook 2025I'm moderately bullish for silver for 2025. Sometimes, it is misunderstood that a weakening US Dollar will directly cause metal prices to fall. We have seen both $USD and $XAU increase simultaneously. There are other driving factors such as flight to safety, inflation hedge, mining supply constraints, picked up demand etc etc. Currently the Gold to Silver ratio sits at 86. 9 times, a sign to switch to silver in short-medium term! Source: Silver Price Forecast for 2025: Demand, Trends, and Market Outlook Unknown 17 December 2024 12:08 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 18 December 2024 10:55 UTC+08:00 9 Consecutive Sessions of Losses for Dow JonesFunny how the Dow Jones has 9 straight days of losses yet the media barely covers it and sweeps this news under the carpet. Could this be a market euphoria stage? Additionally, as the Fed is expected to make a 3rd consecutive rate cut this week, many experts are also bracing for a slower pace of cuts in 2025. This is in light of the nation's still-sticky inflation rate and some of President-elect Donald Trump's proposed economic policies, which, if enacted, could prove inflationary. Time to decipher Powell's tone (as always) and await the Summary of Economic Projections for more clues on rates in 2025!Source: Dow Jones Faces Longest Losing Streak Since 1978 Amid UnitedHealth Plunge RealisedGains Investing 19 December 2024 20:57 UTC+08:00 25 Basis Points Cut with another 2 25 Basis Points Cuts in 2025Equities down, bonds down, commodities down due to inflation worries and lesser interest rate cuts in 2025 than expected. I believe the Fed made a mistake cutting too early too fast. Could be due to political pressures during the Presidential Elections! Source: Federal Reserve's Strategy to Tackle Inflation in 2024 RealisedGains Investing 19 December 2024 20:59 UTC+08:00 Look at inflation for eggs🐣 RealisedGains Investing 23 December 2024 16:55 UTC+08:00 Bitcoin's Healthy Correction 🚨Bitcoin social sentiment has dropped to its lowest in 2024 with a 10% correction from its $108,300 ATH. From a technical viewpoint, the monthly candles still look like a lot of indecision, I would look for 85-87k as a support zone for buybacks before resuming to 160-170k in 2025. I still believe a rebound is due fueled by historical patterns and fractals. I don't see any major headwinds in this festive period due to seasonally low volume during the festivities. Source: How low will Bitcoin drop? RealisedGains Investing 24 December 2024 16:00 UTC+08:00 Can Trump Remove Powell?Central banks, like the Fed, strive for independence to make decisions that ensure long-term economic stability, free from political pressure. Quote, unquote. As you can see, they cut earlier and faster, probably to prop up the markets to influence elections. Can Trump remove Powell and / or assert pressure and influence the Fed's decisions?Source: The Influence of Trump's Reelection on the Federal Reserve: Independence and Policy RealisedGains Investing 25 December 2024 12:53 UTC+08:00 Federal Reserve Kena SuedJPMorgan, Citigroup, and Goldman Sachs, are suing the Federal Reserve over opaque annual stress tests. They seek transparency and fairness, claiming the current process causes volatile capital requirements that impact financial stability. The Fed plans changes but the legal battle continues. Source: Major Banks Sue Federal Reserve: Transparency in Stress Tests RealisedGains Investing 28 December 2024 12:06 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 28 December 2024 14:59 UTC+08:00 Another One Joins The BRICS GangThailand has just accepted Russia's invitation to be BRICS' partner country. This collaboration is set to strengthen trade, boost foreign investment, and diversify Thailand's alliances on the international stage. If countries within BRICS, start transacting more in local currencies or in alternative currencies such as the Chinese yuan, it could gradually diminish the dollar's dominance, weakening one of the core pillars of U. S. economic power. Global US dollar payments has already fallen below 50%!Source: Thailand Joins BRICS: Strategic Partnership for Global Economic Growth RealisedGains Investing 30 December 2024 18:04 UTC+08:00 Why is Buffett still hoarding cash? Has the ol' man lost his touch?? 😞Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway has cut its Apple stake from $175B to $70B and sold 235M Bank of America shares. Meanwhile, Berkshire’s cash reserves hit a record $320B, with $288B in short-term Treasuries. Why the caution? The Buffett Indicator shows the stock market’s value over 200% of U. S. GDP—a red flag last seen before the 2000 crash. Are we still playing with fire coming into 2025?Source: if the FEDs keep printing, the can keeps kicking down the road 🗑️ RealisedGains Investing 30 December 2024 21:03 UTC+08:00 Time to Buy Korea Stocks and Travel to Korea?Ever since martial law was declared and overturned, the $KOSPI has faced a selloff of 12% in December alone, and 1 Singapore Dollar trades for 1,085. 61 South Korean won as of right now. Even worse, Acting President and Prime Minister Han Duck-soo was impeached too. Time to long stocks and long Korea trip? (South Korea of course) Source: South Korea's Economic Crisis RealisedGains Investing 3 January 2025 12:53 UTC+08:00 🚨 Federal Reserves Drop Below $3 Trillion! 🚨Lower reserves indicate reduced liquidity in the banking system. This can tighten credit conditions, making it costlier for banks to lend to businesses and consumers. The contraction in lending can slow economic activity, potentially amplifying recession risks if borrowing becomes prohibitively expensive for companies and households. QT also draws liquidity out of the financial markets coupled with higher rates could lead to market volatility in equities and bonds! As seen from the US indexes off to a bad start this year!Source: Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet Reduction RealisedGains Investing 3 January 2025 12:55 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 4 January 2025 12:21 UTC+08:00 Singapore's Banking Resilience, Manufacturing Challenges & Market DynamicsSingapore stocks actually had an amazing 20% run in 2024, carried by bank stocks making up a significant % of Straits Times Index. Slowing export demand in 2025 may weigh on the export sector for Singapore, US slowdown in cutting rates may benefit SG's bank stocks temporarily due to better margins while pressuring REITs due to higher financing costs! STI is near all time high of 3906 in October 2007 before the Global Financial Crisis!Source: Singapore Economic Outlook 2025 RealisedGains Investing 5 January 2025 11:59 UTC+08:00 China's Economic PlansChina's economic growth:- World Bank forecast: 4. 9%- China forecast: Around 5%China has deep rooted property and domestic spending issues which will require massive monetary and fiscal stimulus. Aggressiveness means more stimulus —> Long China stocks and commods (which will benefit from larger industrial + infrastructure spending). May not consider China bonds as yields have already reached historically low levels, creating a bubble. Just my 2 cents. Source: China’s PBOC to Cut Rates & RRR in 2025 RealisedGains Investing 5 January 2025 21:46 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 5 January 2025 22:48 UTC+08:00 Key Events This Week: 1. S&P Global Services PMI data - Monday2. November JOLTS Job Openings - Tuesday3. December ADP Nonfarm Employment data - Wednesday4. Fed Meeting Minutes - Wednesday5. December Jobs Report - Friday6. Total of 8 Fed Speaker Events RealisedGains Investing 6 January 2025 12:10 UTC+08:00 What’s Next for FOMC Rates?With the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes set to be released on Wednesday (8/1/2025), the central bank continues to tread carefully as it balances efforts to control inflation with the need to protect the labor market. Inflation remains above the 2% target, while unemployment holds steady at 4. 2%. As economic data (jobs/inflation) improve, bond and currency markets suggest rate cuts may slow, with the dollar rallying and risk assets seeing a mild pullback. I anticipate a continuation of 25 BPS in the next meeting as they cut toward neutral FFR, accompanied by hawkish guidance emphasizing that the fight against inflation is far from over. This is reflected in the current bond market, with short-term rates rising while long-term yields fall, signaling near-term hawkishness and caution about future growth. Source: What's next for rates? RealisedGains Investing 7 January 2025 12:03 UTC+08:00 US HegemonyThe next 2 decades will be crucial to determine whether US' dominance will still be in play. High debt levels standing at 36 trillion, rising polarization, rising wealth inequality, declining productivity growth (look at real numbers instead of nominal) and diversification away from the Dollar; all of which are Ray Dalio's key indicators that a nation that is collapsing soon. Do you think the US will go all out with guns blazing with its military force to preserve its global hegemony? Or will it avoid military conflict and slowly die out as BRICS and emerging markets take over? Source: The U. S. Dollar's Dominance in Global Finance RealisedGains Investing 8 January 2025 12:39 UTC+08:00 🚨 Justin Trudeau Resigns! 🇨🇦Trudeau steps down as Liberal leader, sparking political & economic uncertainty. Under Trudeau, Mortgage payments were DOUBLED. And every day more Canadians were renewing at higher rates. Interest rates are now still 19x higher than when the Liberals bragged interest rates were low. Source: Justin Trudeau Resigns RealisedGains Investing 8 January 2025 13:10 UTC+08:00 Ayeyo can't believe the President of the USA 🇺🇸 is shitposting on Instagram like this. . . 😂 RealisedGains Community 08.01.2025 13:10:19 8 January 2025 13:10 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 9 January 2025 11:50 UTC+08:00 FOMC Minutes Summary – 8th Dec 2024: Rate Cuts Expected to Slow 🚨📉 Rate Policy • Broad support for 25bps rate cut, but officials caution on further easing. • A few open to faster cuts if inflation drops or labor market softens. 📊 Economic Context • Inflation progress slows, with core PCE at 2. 8% (Oct). Labor market stable with 4. 2% unemployment. • Solid GDP growth expected despite financial strains🔎 Risk Outlook • Inflation risks balanced, but recent high readings need close monitoring. • Labor market risks manageable, no rapid deterioration expected. Fed remains data-dependent, balancing inflation and employment risks, with gradual rate adjustments likely. Source: Crypto and Risk Assets tank after FOMC RealisedGains Investing 9 January 2025 12:49 UTC+08:00 Stagflation Concerns?As I highlighted before, there is a growing possibility of stagflation in 2025, and recent economic data is reinforcing these concerns. Stagflation, a scenario where the economy experiences slow growth alongside persistent inflation, could very well become a reality, as seen in the latest trends and market reactions. Quite interesting to see an uptick in demand because it was driven by tariff concerns and not strong economic fundamentals. Takes a keen eye to notice it in the ISM reports!Source: US Economic Data Sparks Market Volatility RealisedGains Investing 10 January 2025 11:55 UTC+08:00 China China ChinaWhile UST yields are soaring, China treasury yields are dipping to rock bottom. Investors are afraid of a deflationary spiral and are piling into bonds to capitalise on whatever yields are left. China's government will need to navigate a challenging environment to balance growth and inflation while leveraging fiscal policy and bond yields to stabilize the economy. I believe that while history doesn't repeat itself, and often rhymes, China isn't stupid enough to let itself run into a lost decade just like Japan, especially if its competing for superpower status. Source: China's Inflation, Bond Yields, Financial Markets, and Commodities RealisedGains Investing 10 January 2025 18:19 UTC+08:00 FOMC Meeting Minutes Summary: Interest Rates stay Higher 📈 What now?1️⃣ Rising rates increase competition for your money – Bonds become more attractive!2️⃣ The 10-year Treasury yield is hovering near 4. 7%, creeping towards 5%. 3️⃣ Factors driving high rates: inflation fears, a resilient U. S. economy, and lower foreign demand for Treasuries. Watch here: I believe we're going to see a second spike in Inflation despite the slowing down of cuts; from the lag effect of September's unnecessary 50 BPS cut to pivot. RealisedGains Investing 11 January 2025 12:33 UTC+08:00 Gold to $3000?China and other countries have resumed its gold buying (don't know why Singapore MAS is unloading lol). Gold and $DXY has lost a bit of their inverse correlation, as prices are supported by central banks' buying even when USD strengthens. Could we see a commodities run in 2025? Also, current gold to silver ratio is 88. 5…anything over 80 is bullish for silver! Copper also bouncing strongly off support as mentioned in a long-term triangle pattern. Source: Central Banks Boost Gold Reserves Amid Economic Uncertainty RealisedGains Investing 12 January 2025 14:21 UTC+08:00 Russia's Economy and GeopoliticsEU sanctions on Russian energy is a joke. The only ones truly sanctioned are EU citizens and businesses because Russia → India → US → EU: the same gas, all at a premium price. Besides that, Russia’s financial markets are marked by uncertainty due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and sanctions. While high bond yields may attract some investors, the risk of default remains. While the ruble’s decline signals economic strain, it could also present opportunities for investors looking to capitalize on the potential upside in sectors that may benefit from Russia’s shifting trade relationships. Just a food for thought since I'm pretty sure not many of yall will touch Russian financial markets💀Source: Russia's Economic Challenges & Projections RealisedGains Investing 13 January 2025 13:32 UTC+08:00 2025 Outlook on AsiaQuite a loaded article on a few Asian markets. Geopolitical risks, global supply chain disruptions, and potential tightening monetary policies from major central banks like the US Federal Reserve will likely add pressure on these markets. I believe $NIFTY50, $TAIEX and $SPY are quite frothy especially $SPY with sitting at around PE of 27. However, the markets could continue its frothy growth for the short term, buoyed by liquidity and continued innovation in sectors like AI, cloud computing, and electric vehicles. Personally, I wouldn't buy in at these levels due to limited upside reward with significant downside risks. To each their own!Source: Asia's Economic Outlook 2025: Stocks & Sectors RealisedGains Investing 13 January 2025 15:00 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 13 January 2025 15:00 UTC+08:00 Distinct Head and Shoulders pattern, which is a bearish pattern formed at the top of a market rally or local high. All those who kept yapping about Winter Rally are now silent. The move up during end December did not make another all time high and MACD indicates bearish signal of loss of momentum. On the weekly, MACD line has crossed below the MACD signal line, indicating medium term bearishness. Purely textbook technical analysis standpoint, so we gotta see how price goes at neckline. RealisedGains Investing 13 January 2025 16:07 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 13 January 2025 22:40 UTC+08:00 U. S Tightens & China Cuts - What It Means for You 🚨Equities and crypto are pulling back sharply today 🩸This comes as the dollar hits a 26-month high following a strong U. S. jobs report, leading investors to question if rates will drop at all this year. This is also after last week's FOMC Meeting Minutes that signaled a more restrictive monetary policy and slower rate cuts. The bond market and FED dot plots are already telling U. S. Treasury yields are going to climb higher. I expect further weakness in risk assets 📉 all the way till March 2025. - Diverging Yields: U. S. Treasury yields soar past 5%, while China’s 10-year yields drop below 1. 6% for the first time ever. - China’s Weak Economy: Falling yields highlight weaker growth expectations as China’s stimulus continues to underwhelm. - Ripple Effects: A sluggish Chinese economy spells trouble for giants like Apple and Tesla, heavily reliant on Chinese demand. - USD Bond Play: China’s move to issue bonds in USD could challenge the dollar’s dominance. Video Link: Why the Markets are Crashing RealisedGains Investing 14 January 2025 11:45 UTC+08:00 2025 WarningMounting inflation and yet G10 member nations are still slashing interest rates. The inflation data is out there and it is well above target. Do they know something that we don't know? I believe that is a an ongoing yet unseen deeper issue, where the central banks are trying to maintain global liquidity in the financial system. Commodities this year may be a better play as an inflation hedge along with supply constraints. Source: 2025 Warning: Why Rate Cuts Won't Save You RealisedGains Investing 15 January 2025 09:27 UTC+08:00 Upcoming:- Big bank earnings: $JPM, $GS, $C, $WFC- US CPI: 2. 9% annual and 0. 4% monthly estimated- Fed speaker parade - Beige book RealisedGains Investing 15 January 2025 11:20 UTC+08:00 Elon Musk Gets SuedThe SEC is suing Elon Musk over a minor disclosure delay in his acquisition of Twitter, alleging he misled shareholders and gained an unfair advantage. This lawsuit has ignited fierce debate over whether this is regulatory overreach or a necessary enforcement action to protect investors. The SEC faces new leadership under the incoming Trump administration and this case could become a key test of how the agency handles high-profile figures and powerful billionaires. Will the SEC’s new leadership push for more aggressive enforcement, or is this an example of politically motivated action aimed at Musk, who has had a strained relationship with the agency for years?Source: Elon Musk vs. SEC RealisedGains Investing 15 January 2025 14:39 UTC+08:00 No Rate Cuts in 2025? 🇺🇸Last Friday's strong December jobs report (+256K) might be suggesting rate hikes could be on the table if PCE rises above 3%. BoA believes the Fed’s cutting cycle is over, supported by a resilient labor market 📈. Goldman Sachs also cut their 2025 rate cut expectations from 75bps to 50bps. The 10Y yield has surged to 4. 8%, its highest since late 2023, while Bitcoin dipped below $90K before rebounding above $95K. This is as China yields drop further, increasing the divergence between US & China yields. This week, hotter 🔥 than expected US Inflation in CPI and PPI data could push a data-dependent FED to a more hawkish policy — pushing rates even higher. Meanwhile, reports suggest Trump may sign executive orders on crypto policies, potentially sparking a market rebound. TLDR; bearish Risk Assets & Equities, short-term relief rally in Crypto; China potentially bottoming. Video Link: US Rates to rise more RealisedGains Investing 16 January 2025 02:06 UTC+08:00 Inflation comes in cool 🥶December’s CPI report shows headline inflation rising 2. 9% on target, while core inflation slipped to 3. 2%, below expected 3. 3%. Headline inflation is up for 3 months straight, but core inflation is cooling again, boosting markets after earlier dropping from strong jobs data. The key to inflation dropping further actually lies in Shelter (largest portion of CPI basket 🧺)Driven by Owner Equivalent Rent (OER), this outdated measure asks homeowners what they think their house would rent for, and often lags. With interest rates still restrictive, this has allowed a surplus of homes. More supply means lower prices & OER will drop to reflect this. Beige Book in 1 Hour but likely a nothingburger and the implied move for today is done 👍🏼 RealisedGains Investing 16 January 2025 12:25 UTC+08:00 Bullish for XRPXRP's $41M in inflows and a bullish pennant breakout means it could surge even higher to $4. 10, with a price discovered resistance at $2. 90. I believe that under the new SEC leadership, the legal uncertainties will be out of the way and XRP could have a significant opportunity for continued growth in 2025! Pure technical standpoint, a loss of momentum could lead to a decline to test support levels at $1. 86, $1. 61 and $1. 35. Source: XRP's Resilience Amid Legal Uncertainty RealisedGains Investing 17 January 2025 12:05 UTC+08:00 Short Selling Firm Hindenburg Closes ShopShort selling is a high-risk strategy where investors bet against a stock by borrowing and selling shares, hoping to buy them back at a lower price for profit. While it helps expose overvalued companies and corporate fraud—like Hindenburg Research’s takedown of Adani Group—it carries unlimited loss potential if the stock price rises instead. Historically, U. S. stocks go up 78% of the time, making short selling an uphill battle for most traders. Source: Hindenburg Research Shuts Down RealisedGains Investing 18 January 2025 12:25 UTC+08:00 China's Economic Concerns Despite Hitting 5% GrowthChina’s economy grew 5% in 2024, surpassing expectations, supported by strong exports and government stimulus. While consumption showed signs of strengthening, it remained cautious, and the property sector saw a slowdown in its decline. I believe that financial markets are always forward-looking and may have already priced in these challenges, potentially signaling a bottom for stocks. Any news that aren't surprising or doesn't beat / miss expectations won't change sentiment significantly (same goes for other markets like US etc). Source: China’s 2024 GDP Hits 5% RealisedGains Investing 20 January 2025 11:35 UTC+08:00 Weakening SGD Ahead?With Trump taking office tonight, we expect him to roll out measures that could have huge implications on Asian markets, especially Singapore and its open economy. We could see higher borrowing costs due to lower demand for SGD currency and liquidity strain on capital markets in Singapore. Best to keep a basket of currencies to hedge against SGD weakening!Source: Impact of MAS Policy Shift and US Tariffs on SGD RealisedGains Investing 20 January 2025 11:36 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 21 January 2025 11:23 UTC+08:00 Trump's Immediate ActionsWhile we were all sound asleep, Trump signed over 100 executive orders right after taking Office. Here is a gist of what went off and a summary of the orders he executed. Trump is no bs this time. Make America Great Again!Source: Trump's First Executive Actions RealisedGains Investing 21 January 2025 17:48 UTC+08:00 1. Price-to-Earnings (P/E) RatioCompanion Variable: Expected Growth Rate in Earnings Per Share (EPS). Mismatch Indicator:A low P/E ratio combined with a high expected growth rate suggests the company may be undervalued. Interpretation: The market may not be fully pricing in the company’s growth potential. 2. Price-to-Book Value (P/BV) RatioCompanion Variable: Return on Equity (ROE). Mismatch Indicator:A low P/BV ratio with a high ROE indicates undervaluation. Interpretation: The company is efficient in generating profits from equity, but the market isn’t reflecting this in its valuation. 3. Price-to-Sales (P/S) RatioCompanion Variable: Net Profit Margin. Mismatch Indicator:A low P/S ratio with a high net profit margin suggests the company is undervalued. Interpretation: Despite strong profitability from sales, the company’s valuation appears low. 4. Enterprise Value-to-EBITDA (EV/EBITDA)Companion Variable: Reinvestment Rate. Mismatch Indicator:A low EV/EBITDA ratio with low reinvestment needs signals undervaluation. Interpretation: The company generates strong earnings with minimal reinvestment, indicating high free cash flow potential. 5. Enterprise Value-to-Capital (EV/Capital)Companion Variable: Return on Capital (ROC). Mismatch Indicator:A low EV/Capital ratio with a high return on capital indicates undervaluation. Interpretation: The company effectively generates high returns on invested capital but is priced cheaply by the market. 6. Enterprise Value-to-Sales (EV/Sales)Companion Variable: After-Tax Operating Margin. Mismatch Indicator:A low EV/Sales ratio with a high after-tax operating margin suggests undervaluation. Interpretation: The company converts sales into operating profits efficiently, but its valuation multiple does not reflect this. RealisedGains Investing 22 January 2025 00:21 UTC+08:00 What Happened on Inauguration | $TRUMP and $MELANIA TokensThe $TRUMP meme token launched just two days before the inauguration, sparking debates about its timing. 🇺🇸It briefly flipped Layer 1 $SUI, hitting $15 billion market cap within 48 hours!Meanwhile, $MELANIA (his wife) is down 70% from its peak in just 2 days. Why Meme Coins Are Risky:⚠️ Fake Volume: Market makers & wash trading can create false demand on CEXes/DEXes. ⚠️ Fake Rankings: Paid traffic can boost visibility on screeners. ⚠️ Manipulation: Large holders pump prices by delaying sales. Even when it seems like token ownership is “diversified,” multiple wallets can still belong to a single entity. Some hide this well; others, not so much. For example, the recent Hawk Tuah Girl Token shows concentrated supply among a few wallets. Even if they split tokens across multiple accounts, they could still retain control. You can see insane gains like 1,000%, but those profits are also not guaranteed to be liquid. Just throwing caution to the wind! RealisedGains Investing 22 January 2025 12:05 UTC+08:00 Trump Ignores ChinaWe didn't see anything mentioned about China since Trump entered office, which provided a relief rally across Asian markets. I still believe tariffs are coming underway but not as feared as investors think. Also I believe China's push to expand imports is a smart move to balance its trade and boost its domestic economy. While tariffs might create short-term instability, they could drive China to deepen economic reforms, benefiting long-term global stability. China needs to fix its domestic issues though like property sector and domestic demand. Source: China's Trade Strategy and U. S. Tariff Talks RealisedGains Investing 23 January 2025 12:53 UTC+08:00 China's Plan to Revive the EconomyThe Chinese government's stimulus measures, such as subsidized trade-in programs for cars and electronics, are aimed at boosting consumption in struggling sectors like automotive and tech while aligning with long-term goals like environmental sustainability and the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs). Although a short term move, their success hinges on addressing underlying psychological barriers and fostering economic security! Still bullish in the long run!Source: China's Boosts Consumer Sector and Stock Market RealisedGains Investing 24 January 2025 12:15 UTC+08:00 Silver a Buy?The current gold-silver ratio sits at around 89, which usually indicates that we should switch away from gold and buy silver. Silver also faces supply side issues, where silver mines face their own challenges of declining ore grades and rapidly rising mining costs. A steady industrial demand will cause a surge in silver prices - simple economics! You can consider looking at $SLV for silver, $GLDR for gold and $CPER for copper!Source: Is Silver is Set for a Bullrun? RealisedGains Investing 24 January 2025 18:12 UTC+08:00 US & India: Most Overvalued Markets?Video Analysis: Why the Rich are leaving India 🇮🇳Not to be dramatic, but based on price ratios, US & India equities are still extremely overvalued and i'm not buying it. I’m holding onto Bitcoin, but global money supply remains inflated, and US/India equities still look overvalued. My final $QQQ target is 557. 65-565. 55 before the March FOMC (Analysis) while Nifty50 could briefly break the psychological 30,000 level. If we bounce here, a 5th wave might touch new highs—before what could be the biggest crash in Indian market history. As a young emerging economy, India hasn’t seen a proper crash yet. Key Nifty Levels:✅ 22750-22800: Major support zone⚠️ 23400-23450: Key for a trend reversalSince 2016, over 600,000 Indians have renounced citizenship, including 23,000 millionaires, ranking India #1 in educated, wealthy migration. RealisedGains Investing 25 January 2025 12:35 UTC+08:00 Singapore Reduces the S$NEER SlopeIn a rare policy shift, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has decided to ease its monetary policy, marking the first adjustment since March 2020, when the global pandemic prompted a broad response from central banks. The move comes as Singapore's economy faces weaker-than-expected growth, compounded by global economic challenges. The MAS plans to lower the nominal effective exchange rate (S$NEER) policy band, reducing the pace at which the Singapore dollar appreciates against a basket of its major trading partners' currencies. Source: Singapore Eases Monetary Policy Amid Economic Slowdown RealisedGains Investing 26 January 2025 18:17 UTC+08:00 End of the Carry Trade | BoJ Hike RatesThe BoJ just raised interest rates to 0. 5%, the highest since 2008! 🚀 This 25bps hike, passed by an 8-1 majority vote, signals a major shift as Japan tackles inflation. 💹 What This Means: • Stronger Yen: The yen could appreciate, impacting exporters like Toyota. • Higher Costs: Imported goods may get pricier, fueling inflation. • Tougher Borrowing: Loans get costlier, but savers benefit. Why & How This Ends the Carry Trade:For decades, Japan’s ultra-low rates drove a global strategy carry trade: borrowing yen to invest in higher-yielding foreign assets. Rising rates strengthens the yen, and encourages Japanese investors to instead repatriate funds. Source: YouTube Video RealisedGains Investing 27 January 2025 11:21 UTC+08:00 Why the US Debt could cause a Recession🚨 The US hit its $36. 2T debt ceiling, forcing Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen to take “extraordinary measures” to avoid a meltdown. With a debt-to-GDP ratio worse than any 1st-world country, including Canada, the US faces bankruptcy risks if the ceiling isn’t raised - so they will simply kick the can further down the road AGAIN 🗑️💸 Interest payments alone now exceed $1T annually, fueling fears of defaults and inflation. Imo, a second inflation spike and a return to rate hikes seem likely. As Central banks’ continute to devalue, I believe this favours long assets for now, with the likely re-pivot back to tightening happening in March — this potentially could signal a Risk Asset correction some time after Trump's inauguration. Source: US is a shitshow RealisedGains Investing 27 January 2025 19:15 UTC+08:00 US Equities pre-market down close to -5% off the Yen Carry Trade unwinding & DeepSeek China revolution 😅 So bloody 🩸Like I said before, I haven't been in US Stocks 🇺🇸 and only in China 🤙🏼 FED's Dot Plot already pricing in 99. 5% Chance of No Rate Cuts for the Jan 29th FOMC Meeting. US Markets Headwinds strong now!Truly a Happy CHINESE New Year 🐉🇨🇳 RealisedGains Investing 27 January 2025 19:29 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 27 January 2025 21:08 UTC+08:00 DeepSeek-Driven Market SelloffIndex futures are taking a heavy hit in pre-market trading, with Nvidia plunging 12%! The US markets, which have been lofty and frothy, may finally be facing a reckoning. I've been warning about how a black swan event could trigger a potential market correction or even a crash. Whether it's geopolitical tensions, a trade war, a banking crisis, or the emergence of a powerful competitor like DeepSeek, the signs were there. Be careful!Source: The Threat of DeepSeek RealisedGains Investing 28 January 2025 10:46 UTC+08:00 PBOC's Reverse RepoThe People’s Bank of China (PBOC) just made a major move, injecting a record $234 billion into the financial system through reverse repos. I believe that the PBOC's strategy of using reverse repos over traditional tools like RRR cuts shows how tightly they’re balancing growth against the risk of capital outflows. While other countries tighten their own policies, China’s struggle to maintain liquidity while keeping the yuan stable could create further challenges. Source: PBOC's Record Liquidity Injection Amid Yuan Depreciation RealisedGains Investing 28 January 2025 19:37 UTC+08:00 FOMC? I've play these games before 🦑The upcoming FOMC’s first 2025 meeting (Jan 28-29) is expected to keep rates PAUSED at 4. 25%-4. 50%, holding steady since last September’s cuts (CME FedWatch). Meanwhile, Europe is set to cut rates by 25 bps this Thursday, extending its easing to support growth. Global monetary policies are now diverging: the 🇺🇸 Fed pauses, the 💶 ECB cuts, and Japan signals 💹 rate hikes. My view is that the Fed’s pause could extend to mid-2026 as inflation should rise under Trump's economic policies. Debt will certainly be a problem, as Trump will still be pushing for cuts and to increase spending. Source: No more rate cuts 😔🖤 RealisedGains Investing 29 January 2025 16:25 UTC+08:00 FOMC Meeting in 10 HoursThe Federal Reserve’s highly anticipated January FOMC meeting concludes today, and all eyes are on Jerome Powell as he announces the Fed’s latest policy decision at 2 PM ET. With President Donald Trump back in office, he has wasted no time pressuring the Fed for immediate rate cuts to stimulate economic growth. In short, - Inflation is cooling, but still above target- Markets expect the Fed to hold rates steady—for now- Global uncertainties, including AI disruptions and tariffs, add complexitySource: Federal Reserve’s January 2025 FOMC Meeting RealisedGains Investing 29 January 2025 17:05 UTC+08:00 Alibaba Unveils Qwen Model, rivaling DeepSeek & GPT-4o! 🚀 Alibaba has launched Qwen 2. 5, claiming it surpasses DeepSeek-V3, GPT-4o, and Llama-3. 1-405B. The Lunar New Year release raised eyebrows, fueling speculation about Alibaba’s strategy in China’s AI race. DeepSeek’s recent R1 model shook Silicon Valley and Nvidia, proving competitive AI can be built with fewer resources. Now, ByteDance has also joined the race with an upgraded model rivaling OpenAI’s o1. $BABA closed at $96, nearing the $100 mark. With the FOMC decision tomorrow, I believe the slowing of easing conditions will stall the US equities rally. I'm still bullish China! 🇨🇳Source: China's DeepSeek and Baba's Qwen RealisedGains Investing 30 January 2025 20:31 UTC+08:00 January FOMC Decision Market Analysis/UpdateI still see the top-side target for BTC around $110K–$120K as previously mentioned. These are not levels to be buying at. While it may sound outlandish, I believe we’re in for a second inflation spike later this year, forcing the Fed to hike rates again, especially if pressured to match the BoJ’s tightening stance. Crypto seems to be very tied to M2 Money Supply now. Right now, bond and options markets are only pricing in a 25% chance of this 'rate hike' scenario. Barclays analysts still expect slightly lower rates in 2025 but aren’t ruling out hikes. The FOMC decision yesterday was already priced in, and we did see a rally, but taking profits/cash is a good option for now. I expect a small pullback by mid-February before the rally resumes, with a larger correction in Q3/Q4 when rate hikes return. RealisedGains Investing 1 February 2025 03:48 UTC+08:00 What's stalling this relief rally?Markets rallied this afternoon on news that Trump would delay tariffs till March 1st. Just 2 hours ago, looks like Trump backpedaled and instituted that 25% tariffs on Mexico/Canada, and 10% tariffs on China go into effect tomorrow. Risk Assets $SPY $QQQ $BTC now dropping like a stone!Tariffs here would be strengthening the dollar by discouraging imports, which in turn helps reduce the U. S. trade deficit—one of Trump’s key objectives coming in! RealisedGains Investing 1 February 2025 12:18 UTC+08:00 Gold Making All-Time HighsGold just surged past $2,800, shattering records—yet barely anyone is talking about it. While markets brace for Trump’s new tariffs and the Fed stalls on rate cuts, smart money is piling into gold. Inflation fears, economic slowdown, and falling bond yields are fueling this massive breakout. Source: Gold Prices Surge Past $2,800 RealisedGains Investing 2 February 2025 13:11 UTC+08:00 U. S. Trade War BeginsWhile the administration asserts that tariffs will not lead to inflation, economists warn of potential economic disruptions, including increased production costs and retaliatory actions from trading partners. Removing tariffs could be politically unpopular for both sides involved, particularly given the current political climate. For the U. S. , lifting tariffs could be seen as a sign of weakness or a retreat from a strong stance on protecting domestic industries and jobs, which is a key part of President Trump's policy platform. Implications on different financial assets are mentioned in the article!Updates:U. S. Economy: Tariffs may reduce U. S. economic output by 0. 4% over the next decade, leading to inflation and higher consumer prices. Canada & Mexico: Both countries are retaliating with their own tariffs, targeting key sectors like agriculture, energy, and automotive, disrupting vital North American trade. China: While initially focusing on legal action through the WTO, China faces tariff-induced cost increases in tech, electronics, and textiles. Source: U. S. Tariffs on Canada, Mexico, & China: Economic Impact RealisedGains Investing 2 February 2025 22:54 UTC+08:00 Support Zones I am looking at: 485-490 $QQQ93-96k $BTCOnly long-term I am holding right now is China $BABA $CSI, just selling far long-dated OTM calls at least 3-5 months. Along with my Silver holdings $XAG $SLV. RealisedGains Investing 2 February 2025 22:56 UTC+08:00 Wrote this from 105k-106k $BTC^ and 530 $QQQ. Just fair warning, weekend markets are currently showing a red monday based on retaliation and escalation of the Trade Wars between US, Canada, Mexico & China. The latter likely to be the least impacted due to how divested Chinese Exports are anyway. RealisedGains Investing 3 February 2025 09:45 UTC+08:00 thank you for playing 🤗 $BTC shorts - 105k to 93k real quick RealisedGains Investing 3 February 2025 09:45 UTC+08:00 I'm closing $BTC shorts around green region bottom of range or at least TP-ing half and switching to tight trailing SL on remaining half. Still many hours to the US open tomorrow! RealisedGains Investing 3 February 2025 10:02 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 3 February 2025 12:53 UTC+08:00 U. S. -China Trade WarTrump’s new tariffs on China, Canada & Mexico are shaking Asian markets! Beijing is holding back immediate retaliation but has powerful options, and a China’s official response is expected soon! China's manufacturing PMI has been hovering near contraction, which would also mean that further stimulus measures should be around the corner!Source: U. S. -China Trade War 2. 0: Market Impact & Investment Outlook RealisedGains Investing 4 February 2025 00:57 UTC+08:00 Just like I said; Trump backpedals Tariffs 🤭The S&P 500 surges more than 50 points off of its low on news of US-Mexico tariffs being PAUSED for 1 month. RealisedGains Investing 4 February 2025 01:04 UTC+08:00 So far this week:Took $BTC short from 105. 3k to 92. 8k target 📉Flipped $ETH long from 2. 5k to 2. 8k target 📈All precise targets 🎯 I gave all in advance in the chat (timestamped & with size); Also predicted the US market overreaction and backpedalling of Tariffs. Really goes to show how much of a shitshow the US markets are when Trump can pump and dump his own shitcoin and also go back-and-forth with Tariff threats. Then again; I still remember trading his last term! This year now marks my 12th year trading. I've played these games before 🫡 RealisedGains Investing 4 February 2025 01:23 UTC+08:00 U. S. Market & Trade War UpdateI still believe the U. S. market is overvalued. Trump has followed through on a lot of his plans—he’s already signed away many of Biden’s deals and imposed tariffs, albeit mostly as threats. I think his austerity measures will eventually pull down the markets, and by Q3-Q4, we’ll likely see him offset fiscal tightening with monetary easing, something he's already pushing for. This move could push markets back up in the short term, but I expect the overall impact to be negative. Tariffs on Mexico PausedU. S. tariffs on Mexico are NOW paused for a month. In exchange, Mexico will deploy 10,000 National Guard troops to the border to curb illegal immigration and fentanyl trafficking. Trump confirmed the deal but did not mention efforts to stop weapons trafficking. RealisedGains Investing 4 February 2025 12:53 UTC+08:00 Why Meme Coins are a PonziMeme coins, despite their popularity and the hype surrounding them, are a dangerous economic trend. They offer no intrinsic value and only transfer wealth from late investors to early ones, much like a game of musical chairs where only a few are left standing when the music stops. This is why as you can see the moment investors switch to risk off, meme coins are the first to go and get slaughtered the most. Source: Why Meme Coins Drain the Economy: Speculation & Debt Crisis RealisedGains Investing 4 February 2025 20:22 UTC+08:00 Chinese Stocks Surge Amidst Tariff UncertaintyChinese stocks in Hong Kong surged on February 4, 2025, as U. S. President Trump announced a potential delay in tariffs on Chinese goods. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) saw a near 4% increase, marking the biggest gain since October 2024! I believe Chinese stocks are attractively valued and are a buying opportunity! Just my 2 cents!Source: Chinese Stocks Surge on U. S. Tariff Hopes RealisedGains Investing 4 February 2025 23:21 UTC+08:00 Jobs Opening PlungePer the just-releases JOLTS data, US job vacancies fell to 7. 6 million in December. Welcome to FUNemployment! 😅This is well below the consensus forecast of 8 million, quite a fall from November’s revised level of 8. 156 and the lowest level since September. Why it matters?📉 Weaker job openings = rising unemployment risks📉 Higher unemployment = lower wage pressures & inflation📉 Fed may turn more dovish, increasing rate cut oddsMarket Impact:🔼 Bonds Rally – Lower rate expectations push bonds up🔼 Stocks Up – Dovish Fed = Liquidity boost for risk assets RealisedGains Investing 5 February 2025 01:32 UTC+08:00 2025 Market UpdateSame charts as last year (reference above), I think we top around 140-170k this cycle for $BTC and this happens around June-August. There is still upside but I don't feel the same for Alts; this cycle Bitcoin will show the rest of Crypto who is boss. Not touching US tech stocks with a stick still. Only in $LMT cause I like my defence stocks. Gold $XAU like I mentioned for the past year will get to the big psychological 3000 number, with Silver $XAG starting to wake up, i still expect 50-60 on this. China has fully bottomed and I believe the AI $BABA train has begun, but will still feel pullbacks if global trade supply chains are dampened by US trade policies. I think long-dated bonds $TLT are bottoming out now. All subject to change if market winds shift. My 2 cents. GLHF 🫵🏼 RealisedGains Investing 5 February 2025 12:47 UTC+08:00 China's Response to TrumpChina has retaliated against Trump's recent tariffs with targeted measures including new tariffs on U. S. imports (coal, LNG, crude oil) and export controls on critical minerals like tungsten. China’s strategy seems more calculated to cause pain for U. S. industries while limiting harm to its own economy. Additionally, China’s significant influence over global supply chains gives it leverage, especially in sectors like technology and defense. I still see it as a lose lose situation!Source: China's Strategic Retaliation to Trump's Tariffs RealisedGains Investing 6 February 2025 11:23 UTC+08:00 Gold Futures Breaches $2900Gold prices have surged to unprecedented levels, with futures breaching $2,900 for the first time amid escalating U. S. -China trade tensions. President Trump’s tariffs and China's retaliatory measures have sparked investor concern, pushing them towards safe-haven assets like gold. Weaker USD —> Commodities become more attractiveFalling yields (due to lower expected inflation rates) —> Commodities become more attractiveBond prices move based on rate cut expectations and not number of rate cuts!Source: Gold Prices Surge Amid U. S. -China Trade War Tensions RealisedGains Investing 7 February 2025 13:07 UTC+08:00 Oil Down 10% - What's Next?Oil prices will likely continue to trend downward in the coming months. Trump’s “Drill, Baby, Drill” strategy pushing for increased U. S. oil production means we could see greater supply in the market. Combining this with peace talks will potentially reduce geopolitical tensions, especially in Ukraine, we could then see a significant influx of oil, keeping prices low. Source: Oil Prices Drop 10% – Impact on Inflation & Markets RealisedGains Investing 9 February 2025 11:17 UTC+08:00 Big Tech Pouring Money into AIThe tech world's going all in on AI in 2025 with Meta, Amazon, Alphabet, and Microsoft planning a massive $320 billion investment in AI tech and data centers. But it's not just about throwing money around; there's real competition, especially after China's DeepSeek shook things up. Wrote some predictions for a few stocks in the article! Just my two cents as we could see higher volatility ahead of 2025! NFASource: 2025 AI Investment: Tech Giants' Massive Spending RealisedGains Investing 10 February 2025 11:19 UTC+08:00 Trump's Favourite Word: TariffsTrump's just dropped a bombshell with a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports. It's like he's playing a risky game of economic chess, aiming to protect U. S. industries but risking a global trade war. I believe there will be short-term gains for domestic steel companies, but long-term, it's going to be rising consumer prices and potential job losses in industries that rely on these materials!Source: Trump's Tariff Plan: Economic Strategy or Sabotage? RealisedGains Investing 10 February 2025 11:29 UTC+08:00 Feb 10 Earnings Week RealisedGains Investing 11 February 2025 11:29 UTC+08:00 BYD Shares Surged 20%BYD just made waves in the EV market by offering its God's Eye smart-driving system for free across most models, sending shares to a record high in Hong Kong. Technically, it's above key moving averages with strong momentum. Short-term, expect some volatility for HKG:1211 but with potential to reach HK$350-360 in the next few months!Source: BYD's Free Smart-Driving System Boosts Shares RealisedGains Investing 12 February 2025 21:34 UTC+08:00 JUST IN: Jerome Powell told the Senate Banking Committee that the Fed is no hurry to lower rates. "With our policy stance now significantly less restrictive than it had been and the economy remaining strong, we do not need to be in a hurry to adjust our policy stance. ”I believe in this case CPI, PPI this Thursday inflation data will be hotter than expected, and market probably dumps. But the usual backstops will come in and we'll run it back up next week. Equities look a lot more resilient than Crypto with $QQQ still at 528 against $BTC at 95k. Have opened a call ratio spread on $VIX to hedge my equities position. RealisedGains Investing 12 February 2025 21:37 UTC+08:00 US Inflation Data Came in Hot 🔥YoY Growth 📈🇺🇸 CPI (Jan), 3. 0% Vs. 2. 9% Est. (prev. 2. 9%)🇺🇸 Core CPI, 3. 3% Vs. 3. 1% Est. (prev. 3. 2%)MoM Growth📈🇺🇸 CPI (Jan), 0. 5% Vs. 0. 3% Est. (prev. 0. 4%)🇺🇸 Core CPI, 0. 4% Vs. 0. 3% Est. (prev. 0. 2%)Markets pricing in rate hikes now. My $VIX positions I gave 2-3 days ago printing now 🤙🏼^ RealisedGains Investing 14 February 2025 09:34 UTC+08:00 Eggs to the MoonIf you invested $10k into eggs (if you could) 5 years ago, you would have earned a profit of almost $40k😂 The egg market has been wild with prices soaring due to avian flu and supply issues. I see this egg boom as largely short-term! Don't worry though! The US egg crisis might not directly affect Singapore's egg supply due to different import sources unless there is a broader impact on global egg prices!Source: Egg Crisis: Soaring Prices and Market Impact RealisedGains Investing 14 February 2025 15:41 UTC+08:00 Trump threatens 100% tariffs on BRICS 🦅🇺🇸Love how the markets move at Trump’s beck and call. For now, he delays further tariffs. This follows hot CPI data fueling inflation worries, while PPI suggests the opposite in key sectors. “BRICS is dead from the moment I said that if they touch the dollar, they will get 100% tariffs. ” – TrumpIf BRICS are really dead 🤔 why are they still accumulating gold & pricing in dollar devaluation? Someone’s bluffing. I believe the dollar will still devalue over time as they inflate away debt—contingent on Elon's DOGE successfully controlling fiscal spending. Source: Trump Bluffing? RealisedGains Investing 15 February 2025 16:55 UTC+08:00 Tariffs on AutomobilesTrump's recent announcement of new auto tariffs, set to take effect around April 2, targets imports from key nations like Germany, Japan, and South Korea, potentially increasing vehicle costs significantly. Trump's auto tariffs could push up vehicle prices, encouraging a shift towards domestic production with companies like VW, Hyundai, and Kia likely increasing U. S. manufacturing. Back to EVs, you can consider $NIO, $XPEV, $LI to diversify! Haven't experienced much of an upside move yet despite the ongoing China rally! Source: Trump's Next Round of Auto Tariffs RealisedGains Investing 16 February 2025 13:09 UTC+08:00 Argentinian President Milei Rug PullThe $LIBRA memecoin, launched by Argentinian President Javier Milei with the intention of boosting the local economy, experienced a catastrophic 90% crash within just 5 hours, erasing $4. 4 billion from its market cap. That's why I never ever believe in memecoins and I short them!Source: $LIBRA Memecoin Crash: Milei's $4. 4B Rug Pull RealisedGains Investing 17 February 2025 09:35 UTC+08:00 China’s Stock Market Rally Gains Momentum! 🇨🇳📈A potential Xi Jinping & Jack Ma meeting should continue China’s tech surge in my opinion. I will be holding my $BABA Alibaba shares through the earnings report. I believe there are many investors still sidelined and we don't get any deep pullbacks on $BABA or Hong Kong Tech stocks. Besides this, I don't believe Trump's Tariffs to be too restrictive to the Chinese Economy. Still bullish China! Selling covered calls at 155-170 Resistance (Red Zone) for 3 Months Expirations (Monthly ATR can probably spike to 20-30 soon) 👀Source: Alibaba to continue rally? RealisedGains Investing 17 February 2025 13:06 UTC+08:00 Xi Meets Chinese Business LeadersChinese President Xi Jinping attended a meeting with prominent entrepreneurs just now, a potentially momentous show of support for the private sector after years of turmoil! Is it finally a turnaround in China stocks that have been beaten down over the past few years? Personally I'm pro-China so we shall see!Source: Xi's Meeting Boosts China Tech Stocks RealisedGains Investing 18 February 2025 14:45 UTC+08:00 $TLT Bottomed Out Already?The bond market is at a tipping point with the 10-year Treasury yield hovering around 4. 60%, a level not seen since pre-Great Recession days. $TLT's trading volume has spiked, up by nearly 30% from last month, suggesting institutional investors are moving in. The ETF's price has dipped, but this could be the calm before the storm. With a duration around 18 years, even a small drop in yields could amplify price gains significantly for $TLT!Source: Mega Bond Rally: TLT on the Cusp RealisedGains Investing 19 February 2025 14:31 UTC+08:00 Another Wave of Tariffs by TrumpPresident Donald Trump has announced plans to impose a 25% tariff on imported automobiles, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductor chips, with details expected by April 2. This is to address trade imbalances and encourage companies to relocate production to the U. S. These tariffs are affecting automakers and tech firms in Europe and Asia, as reflected in their stock prices already!Source: Trump's 25% Tariffs: Auto, Drug, Chip Impact RealisedGains Investing 20 February 2025 14:32 UTC+08:00 US China Trade Deal Soon?Trump’s Feb 20, 2025, trade deal hint with China, paired with his Feb 4 tariffs, is vintage chaos-by-design—bold, messy, and hard to predict. I think he’s serious about leveraging Xi’s rapport to score a win, but China’s economic slowdown and his own tariff obsession could choke any real progress. Moving forward, I’d bet on a shallow deal at best—think symbolic gestures over substance—since neither side has the stomach for a full trade war or a grand bargain! Source: Trump’s China Trade Deal: Tariffs, Markets & Predictions RealisedGains Investing 20 February 2025 19:29 UTC+08:00 Like I said, $BABA earnings beat. Big time. We keep holding China 🫡🐉 RealisedGains Investing 20 February 2025 20:32 UTC+08:00 Why I am still long China 🇨🇳Gave it to you guys 4 Months ago with my Average $BABA buys at $69-74 publicly on Youtube and on X predicting 130-140 in Q1 2025. We are here now. Not claiming to be good, just sharing 🤙🏼 Specifically I've said before I am only selling covered calls on these, not selling. Source: TLDR Long China RealisedGains Investing 20 February 2025 23:27 UTC+08:00 We have come full circle. Do feel free to engage & connect with me on Linkedin as well 😊 RealisedGains Investing 21 February 2025 12:49 UTC+08:00 $NIO PredictionEarnings date: 03/05/2025Bull Case (Leaning towards this):Given deliveries (known at 72,689) and stimulus tailwinds, NIO likely beats revenue at $2. 9-$3 billion. Margins improve to 11%-12% due to alloy savings, yielding -$0. 30 EPS. The stock’s lack of pre-earnings run-up suggests a 20%-30% pop to $5. 10-$5. 50 if guidance excites (e. g. , 440,000 units for 2025, Firefly/ET9 traction). Post-earnings, $5. 50-$6 by April 2025 is feasible if macro holds. Bear Case:If price wars hit harder than expected, Q4 revenue undershoots at $2. 7 billion (below $2. 8B consensus), with margins slipping to 9% due to ONVO’s low ASPs and discounting, resulting in -$0. 45 EPS. Guidance disappoints at 380,000 units for 2025 with profitability pushed beyond Q4 2025. The stock drops 10%-15% to $3. 80-$3. 60, with tariff fears and a Hang Seng pullback capping recovery; a slide to $3 or below is possible by April 2025 if sentiment sours further. RealisedGains Investing 21 February 2025 17:19 UTC+08:00 Where I see markets headed:Dollar Devaluation: I expect the dollar to weaken without Fed rate hikes or cuts, preserving the current 4. 25-4. 5% range. This stasis aids devaluing the $36T debt, reducing its real burden. Musk & DOGE: Elon Musk’s DOGE will likely enforce austerity, slashing $2T from spending. This curbs deficits, creating space for future rate cuts if needed. Monetary Policy: I foresee a continued pause on rate cuts in 2025, but backdoor QE will emerge—draining the Reverse Repo ($350B) and Treasury General Account ($700B). These moves inject liquidity, support markets, and subtly weaken the dollar. Market Outlook: I think Bonds have bottomed, unless Japan and China continues to unwind positions to bolster purchasing of gold. Silver will start creeping up, running up on the lag on gold as well. Crypto still has another leg up. US Equities as well but not before a pullback. However, imo 2nd half of the year feels dicey, primed for a larger correction. Source: Talking Gold & Precious Metals RealisedGains Investing 22 February 2025 01:55 UTC+08:00 ByBit just hacked for potentially 1. 3 Billion in EthereumBybit confirmed a sophisticated attack on Feb 21, 2025, targeting an ETH multisig cold wallet during a transfer to a warm wallet. The signing interface was spoofed, hiding altered smart contract logic that redirected funds to an unknown address. A digital asset security platform might have prevented this. Solutions like Fireblocks use Multi-Party Computation (MPC), replacing multisig’s on-chain vulnerabilities with off-chain signing and air-gapped cold storage, BitGo’s multisig with cold storage, Anchorage’s HSM-backed custody, and Copper’s MPC-hybrid also bolster security could have fixed this. Just some shoddy security overall… Bybit’s setup likely lacked these, exposing a single point of failure. Exact losses (rumoured $1. 4B) are unclear, but the breach underscores a need for layered defenses beyond basic multisig. This is looking bearish on Crypto, given the falling US equities and Bond Markets pricing in some end February weakness on risk assets as well. Source: ByBit confirms Eth Hack Unknown 22 February 2025 02:06 UTC+08:00 This is HUGE 🩸 — larger than any prior single crypto hack (e. g. , Ronin’s $620 million, Coincheck’s $534 million). 1/8 of FTX's collapse HUGE. RealisedGains Investing 22 February 2025 02:34 UTC+08:00 Unknown 22 February 2025 02:34 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 22 February 2025 12:25 UTC+08:00 Bybit $1. 5B hacker exposedSleuths proved it was North Korea’s Lazarus Group, linked to Park Jin Hyok, stole 401K+ ETH ($1. 46 Billion worth) via a fake UI exploit. Evidence shows test txs, wallet forensics, & timing tied to Lazarus’ past hacks. Laundering $1. 46B? Tough. Tornado Cash? Sanctioned & watched. Extremely difficult to move this size without risking exposure. Bybit now sees $2. 235B in total outflows today—hacked funds + user withdrawals panicking post-breach! My 2 cents is that this is not a FTX situation - I believe ByBit is solvent, but this is a tough hole to recover from!In other news: COVID 2. 0 strain detected in China— likely some continuation of this dip given so much FUD coinciding at once. Source: Stocks Dip on New Covid Fears RealisedGains Investing 23 February 2025 22:17 UTC+08:00 Key Events This Week:1. CB Consumer Confidence data - Tuesday2. January New Home Sales data - Wednesday3. Nvidia, $NVDA, Reports Earnings - Wednesday4. US Q4 2024 GDP Data - Thursday5. Durable Goods Orders - Thursday6. Initial Jobless Claims - Thursday7. Pending Home Sales - Thursday8. January PCE Inflation data - Friday9. Total of 10 Fed Speaker Events This Week RealisedGains Investing 24 February 2025 12:10 UTC+08:00 NVIDIA’s Sell-Off Looms!$NVDA earnings report is coming this Wednesday! A potential earnings miss and sour sentiment could tank NVIDIA soon, in my opinion. Plenty of overhyped investors might jump ship, and I don’t see any big rebounds for this one or other AI stocks. Plus, I don’t think macro pressures like tariffs will ease up on tech. Staying bearish on NVIDIA!Source: NVIDIA Bearish Outlook: Why a Sell-Off Looms in 2025 RealisedGains Investing 24 February 2025 23:50 UTC+08:00 Current Positions: All shared in chatOpen Entry → Target Exit- $VIX call ratio spread: 14. 5 → 19. 12 - $QQQ short: 538 → 485-495 - $BTC short: 98k → 92. 8-92. 9k, 92. 1-92. 4k, 91. 6-91. 8k - $TLT long: 87 → 110+ Close Order: 1. $VIX ratio spread ($VIX/$UVXY) 2. $BTC short futures 3. $QQQ put options 4. $TLT long bonds Why $VIX First? $VIX at 19. 12 means gains now—volatility can crash fast. Lock profits before theta bites, as it leads $QQQ/$BTC shorts. I am closing this today!Why $BTC Before $QQQ? $BTC’s 98k short has tighter targets (92. 8-91. 6k) and crypto moves faster than equities. Close it at 92. 8k to secure gains, then let $QQQ’s 485-495 target play out. Order fits if $BTC hits first. Why $TLT Last? $TLT’s 87-to-110+ is a slow macro bet (yields falling). It hedges chaos from $QQQ/$BTC drops, with no rush to exit. RealisedGains Investing 25 February 2025 00:19 UTC+08:00 China is down today! 🇨🇳 Am I worried? 😟 No. We just saw a 10%+ drop on $BABA today & throughout the Asian sessions. Wrote these $BABA and China resistance levels 4 times as we trekked up and I never said once to sell; I finally sold the $BABA with covered calls I bought from 69-74 at 140+ for $12 premiums a few days back. I opted for 3 Months DTE also because I expected a larger pullback consolidation at this region. Don’t say I never remind you! Reminded many times that those were resistance zones. Ride the wave of volatility my friends 🤙🏻https://t. me/realisedgainscommunity/1270https://t. me/realisedgainscommunity/1262https://t. me/realisedgainscommunity/1252https://t. me/realisedgainscommunity/428 RealisedGains Investing 26 February 2025 19:53 UTC+08:00 Looking for some relief today. . . 🤙🏼 88. 1-88. 4k is a key region for $BTC to hold 🫡 RealisedGains Investing 26 February 2025 20:01 UTC+08:00 ^In some scalp long positions for $BTC; I believe this only to be short-term relief for risk assets. $BTC can see 75-79k imo to tap the 200MA. Already broke key supports and in a Low Volume Node now. Longer-term Bullish 2025 structure still intact for now. I think US equities will still go down after today's $NVDA earnings to at least 485-495 $QQQ - my target area. Unknown 26 February 2025 20:15 UTC+08:00 BIG Day of NVIDIA earnings:$NVDA currently makes up 6. 4% of the $47T in the S&P Index. To say today's earnings is crucial is an understatement 🫢Revenue est. $38-38. 3B (up 72-73% YoY), EPS $0. 84-0. 85 (up 62% YoY). NVDA has crushed 16/18 past reports, but I believe guidance hype to be overblown —guidance needs to actually wow, beat isn't going to cut it 🫵🏼I’m leaning toward a "sell the news" moment. That being said, I am not shorting this. Better R:R being long bonds & long delta into $TLT, given yields dropping. I'm Bullish on Long-dated Bonds! RealisedGains Investing 27 February 2025 02:53 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 27 February 2025 04:06 UTC+08:00 3 key signs we hit a local market top:We've seen this every cycle. 1. ByBit hack drained massive liquidity (Black Swan Event)2. Coinbase topping App Store rankings (On Dec 2017 too)3. FTX funds returning adds exit liquidity (Remember Mt Gox?) Now, I see $BTC nearing a local bottom at 75-79 and $ETH at 1700-1900 (levels I called earlier) on both chats and Youtube. This drop worsened by Trump’s trade war, especially the new EU clash 2 hours ago. To push protectionism and control the debt/spending, he’ll promote austerity with DOGE, devalue the dollar and keep foreign taxes high — still bullish for $TLT. RealisedGains Investing 27 February 2025 04:58 UTC+08:00 Trump's Trade Wars & Currency DevalsSay what you will, but the Trump Admin isn’t hiding the ball—they’ve laid out the playbook from his last term. I reiterated and called it prior to the elections: we’d see a dump with Trump in Q1 2025, pinpointing late Feb. https://t. me/realisedgains/2279https://t. me/realisedgains/2271“We may have some short-term pain, but people get it. The US has been ripped off by everyone, and we’re fixing that. ” – Trump, Feb 3rd Politics aside, the man’s delivering on the signals he’s sent. Source: So far, he’s sticking to his word on tariffs. RealisedGains Investing 27 February 2025 05:53 UTC+08:00 Nvidia's NOT-so-big Earnings Day 🤧Nvidia delivered a double beat, topping Q4 estimates with $39. 3B in revenue—solid, but no surprise since the topline was widely telegraphed. Options traders betting on a big swing got torched as volatility imploded, crushing premiums for both calls, puts, and straddles 😂 I should have just slept. . . 😴Still, the real story’s the guidance: $43B projected for Q1 2025, a good number moving forward. Still a good stock, but I believe MMs will push this down or let it consolidate here to kill speculators and premiums buying short-dated positions. RealisedGains Investing 27 February 2025 11:53 UTC+08:00 Why ETH is Cooked 🔥: Ethereum has truly been struggling. . . Ethereum’s price over the years:2021 = $25002022 = $25002023 = $25002024 = $25002025 = $2500With ByBit’s Massive $1. 4B ETH loss, sky-high open interest on leverage - we could see the ETH Bottom being around 1. 5-1. 8k. In my opinion, Lido staked ETH, wrapped ETH, and Eigen Layer’s restaking sound cool, but don't have great product-market fit with current economic conditions. Additionally, ETH still faces headwinds with competitors like Solana’s stealing liquidity. Source: Is ETH cooked? RealisedGains Investing 27 February 2025 13:18 UTC+08:00 Getting low enough for $BTC. Think this could be weekly lows for a long scalp again. $NVDA earnings shouldn't affect it too much. On the macro view, we'll like continue lower into the End of Feb/Early March and then bounce after that. Still same thesis. RealisedGains Investing 28 February 2025 06:10 UTC+08:00 Trade Positions Update(1) For $VIX, closed from 14 > 19. 12(2) For $BTCShorted 98k into 92kLonged 86. 6k into 89kLonged 82k into 86. 6kRe-shorted 86. 6k think we consolidate here and eventually bottom at 77-79k. This will be in line with my $QQQ target (3) For $QQQ - still holding entirety of positional shorts from 538, looking for 485-495, but I am selling puts to move to delta neutrality in the short-term. (4) $TLT is purely a spot position play (have 200k riding on this, I have disclosed before)May not be exactly right with my bottom target as it depends on liquidation levels, so I would just ladder and watch Price Action. I am still holding my Gold, Silver and China, with the latter being the highest weightage. My $BABA sold calls at 155 strike for 3 months are still active. Still bullish on commodities, and China. Particularly watching $USO $WTI now. Just trying to organically grow this channel (which is finally growing). Will do a referral program soon! Sometimes trades are a few minutes delayed as I am actually trading real funds and my own funds - so ofc I prioritise my own trades first (not using no demo account, putting my money where my mouth is). Just sharing my journey 🤙🏻 RealisedGains Investing 28 February 2025 10:38 UTC+08:00 Very obvious Point-of-Control High Volume Node for $BTC at 72085, 71855, 70325. Staggered Long entries, put these orders in now to catch a scam wick down, very dependent on liquidation engines on each respective exchange. Closing my $BTC shorts at 73-77k. Actively taking profits today. Always take profits! RealisedGains Investing 28 February 2025 11:28 UTC+08:00 Trump's Additional Tariffs Trump’s latest 10% tariff on China, effective March 4, escalates the trade war, risking global economic fallout. I believe Trump is using this as a negotiation tactic rather than starting an economic war because it's a lose lose for all. China's diversification of its exports and massive trade surplus may lessen the bite of tariffs on its economy. Remember that Trump's policies bring short-term pain to the economy and financial markets but are generally healthier long-term! His administration has shown sensitivity to stock market performance, with Trump often touting market gains as a metric of success. Look at how he had to delay the tariffs because markets were initially tanking upon tariff announcements!Source: Trump’s Tariff Hike: China Trade War Risks and Gains RealisedGains Investing 28 February 2025 15:41 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 28 February 2025 23:32 UTC+08:00 Update on Trade PositionsThink we go down lower on risk assets still, but we're likely seeing a relief rally now as Boomers won't be able to sell their ETFs over the weekend. Have a good weekend everybody - Done for the week! 🤙🏻Out of my 4 public positions, $VIX $BTC $QQQ $TLT1. I closed the $VIX from 14 > 19. 122. From what I recall, I took the $BTC short from 98k to 91k, longed 86. 6k to 89k, flipped back short 89k to 78k today, and finally took my last long from 80. 5k now hitting my target of 83-85k. Very good scalps all week > (all live on my yapping chat). 3. $QQQ I just closed pre-market my shorts from 538 at 498. 4. Still holding my $TLT from 87. RealisedGains Investing 3 March 2025 10:51 UTC+08:00 Trump's Crypto Strategic ReserveTrump announced that he is working on the Crypto Strategic Reserve which will adopt these cryptocurrencies—Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Solana, and Cardano—into its framework. Quite coincidental that there was a selloff along with equities because of tariff fears just to announce it after and pump crypto up again!This can go both ways to be honest. Government endorsement could attract more institutional investors to adopt crypto as a form of investment. If the government decides to sell its holdings in the future, it could flood the market, causing price drops. The reserve could distort market dynamics, creating a moral hazard where investors rely on government intervention (lender of last resort). If equities continue to bleed when market opens then we could see a crypto selloff! Been seeing increased correlation of $QQQ and $BTC. Source: Trump’s Crypto Reserve Sparks Rally RealisedGains Investing 4 March 2025 04:15 UTC+08:00 Gonna punt a tiny $BTC short soon. Very tiny short ladders at the 2 red regions with 86-87k (30%) and 91. 6-92. 6k (70%). I am not as confident of this short because while it is low volume, we've seen this market rally off low volume and manipulation before. However, I believe the trend is down till at least 72k to potentially 68k where we fully bottom. However, if we do that, it means that that would be the impulse Elliot Wave C and it would mark the end of the cyclical bull market. Not ruling it out. RealisedGains Community 03.03.2025 02:49:12 4 March 2025 04:15 UTC+08:00 This is pretty good R:R; something like Stop Loss 99. 2k, TP around 72. 5-70. 8k USD. Wouldn't punt anything heavy here though - so much indecision in the market. Can easily be wrong. . . Still think $TLT is a easier trade here. RealisedGains Investing 4 March 2025 04:19 UTC+08:00 What a wild wild trading day. Don't think many would have called for 92. 6k $BTC at 80k lows and still project a dump back to 70k after the relief Monday rally off Trump's Strategic Bitcoin Rally announcement. All time stamped. These have been some crazy few weeks. . . RealisedGains Investing 4 March 2025 11:37 UTC+08:00 $BTC to $70k? Crypto Reserve Faces ObstaclesI think Trump’s Crypto Reserve is a bold but reckless idea and a flashy political move that ignores the messy reality of getting anything done in a divided government. During his run for presidency, he flipped to support crypto—despite being anti-crypto in his first term—because it’s a rare issue with no divided masses or opposition pressure, unlike rallying a specific group that always sparks pushback. Crypto is wildly volatile which can swing double digits in a day. This makes it a nightmare for stable, long-term planning, unlike traditional reserves like oil or gold. $BTC has bled most of its gains after his announcement of the Crypto Reserve. If this optimism continues to die down we could see it fall further to $70k!Source: Trump’s Crypto Reserve Faces Red State & Congress Hurdles RealisedGains Investing 5 March 2025 15:59 UTC+08:00 China's Stimulus PlansChina's 2 sessions on shaping the country's policy direction has started yesterday and will run for a week. I believe that China’s 5% growth target for 2025 is ambitious but achievable. China has a strong track record of leveraging its policy tools to stimulate growth, and the domestic focus on infrastructure and consumer demand should provide the necessary push! Source: China's 5% Growth Target in 2025 RealisedGains Investing 6 March 2025 15:26 UTC+08:00 Is Trump Engineering a Crash? As bond yields are marching higher again, the treasury has some $8. 5 trillion of debt to refinance in 2025. Do you think Trump is engineering all these volatility, uncertainty, stock selloff and bond rally to push yields down and refinance its debt at a lower interest rate?Source: Trump’s Recession Plan: Refinancing U. S. Debt Strategically RealisedGains Investing 6 March 2025 16:14 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 7 March 2025 11:13 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Trading & Referral Game! Launching two new bots to keep the chat exciting! 🚀Referral Bot (@RealisedGainsReferralBot)🤑Earn $1 per referral via @RealisedGainsReferralBot! Invite friends to join @realisedgains and start earning. Trading Bot (@RealisedGainsTradingBot)📈Simulate a DEMO account for BTC or ETH trading on Telegram and compete on leaderboards (for fun!). Boost your trading leverage (1x with 0-1 referrals, up to 10x with 10+ referrals) to amplify your gains!📑 Terms: Use /terms in each bot. 💡 Get Started: Click @RealisedGainsTradingBot to start a private chat. Copy the best traders, Leaderboards posted twice daily. RealisedGains Investing 7 March 2025 15:06 UTC+08:00 Nvidia to Drop Further?Nvidia is now at $110 as predicted and we received hate for that😅Anyways I think it’s a shaky spot and I could see it sliding further to the mid $90s. The demand for AI might hold for a bit and consumer sales look weak with rising prices! Based on technicals, $NVDA has had a massive run up with no meaningful retracements and established support levels. Any corrections can set the stage for deeper discounts! To those bagholding and are looking to sell into a relief rally, $125-$129 is a strong resistance. NFA and best of luck👍🏼Source: Nvidia Stock at $110: Bearish Outlook and Analysis RealisedGains Investing 7 March 2025 21:09 UTC+08:00 Peeking into the Cheeks of Grindr's ANALytics :)It's giving bottom energy? 🍑 or a bust? 💦Grindr's stock is outpacing Bumble & Match $MATCH Group - While rivals faltered last year, Grindr’s revenue soared 35% to $98M in Q4 2024, with full-year at $345M. Yet, was yesterday’s -225% earnings miss the start of the LGBTQ+ bubble bursting? 🫧As the the West becomes more woke & engages in casual debauchery, the more you should be bullish $GRND!However, this looks set to reverse under Trump; LGBTQ+ acceptance have declined from 84% to 80% in the US, per GLAAD reports. As a trader; it might seem like the thesis is Long Bumble Short Grindr under the Trump Narrative. 🦅Disclosure: I'm not gay. I studied the apps for investment purposes & investment purposes only. Source: Is Grindr Ass? RealisedGains Investing 9 March 2025 22:14 UTC+08:00 Retail Buying & Institutional SellingI expect a short-term rebound as the market seeks relief. On the daily timeframe, the price has cut through the 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages, with the 50-day edging lower after signalling the start of a correction. On the weekly chart, price barely touched the 50-day moving average, supporting a case for a relief rally from here! Refer to those box zones for potential support and resistance!Fundamentals in article below!👇🏼Source: Retail Investors Face Tough 2025 Amid Market Sell-Off RealisedGains Investing 10 March 2025 22:44 UTC+08:00 Positions Update:We have convincingly broken down below the 200MA across $BTC $QQQ $SPY. If you were on my livestream or joined from there yesterday, I did say I am still in my $BTC shorts from 94k targeting 72k, possibly even extending to 68k - That should align with my $QQQ target of 445-435. If you scroll above you would see that I publicly gave the short from 98k $BTC after the ByBit hack into flipping long at 78k and targeting 94k (sounds ridiculous but I actually prepared for that). Now I am saying prepare for sub 70k, but DO NOT short below 75k. (98k $BTC short targeting 80k close)(80k $BTC long targeting 86k close)(92k $BTC short targeting 72k close) - I gave all the entry and exits way in advance. We are here now. Once again, just my 2 cents - Trying to interpret the market for y'alls 🤙🏻 Don't claim to be the best, but if you've been here long enough you'd have seen me do this before. Unknown 10 March 2025 22:44 UTC+08:00 RealisedGains Investing 10 March 2025 23:04 UTC+08:00 Actually still the same chart for $BTC ^ (refer to above) targeting 72-74k for closing shorts and a possible wick under 70k (i’ll rely a lot on price action and liquidation data on that day). Same reason why I chose to long at 80k before the 94k the previous time (too many late shorts allowing for a squeeze up). Right now, in my core portfolio, I am still long Bonds and China. Still in my $TLT positions from $87 targeting $110; (doing the Wheels Strategy here)& still in $BABA from $73 - I targeted $145-155 anticipating significant resistance here so I am still selling calls & am close to collecting $12 in premiums which is going to make my average buys for $BABA $61 😂 (goal is to make this position $0 cost). I have shared this before as well months back (scroll up). I believe this US equities pullback and Trump's Tariffs will present very short-term headwinds for China, but I don't believe we're pulling back much. Will go on livestream again in a bit. RealisedGains Investing 11 March 2025 03:19 UTC+08:00 Since we're nearing that point of capitulation. . . 🩸can't sleep because market is too hot today!I've had many people on livestream and chat ask me where I will be buying $ETH - We're almost there! I have my first orders at 1615-1685. I will put it out there first🫡 Thank you for playing 🤗Will be livestreaming every weekday night around 10/11pm - leave your questions at t. me/realisedgainscommunity 💬 RealisedGains Investing 11 March 2025 16:00 UTC+08:00 Wall Street Dives on Tariff FearsWall Street got absolutely decimated on March 10 as Trump’s vague tariff plans spooked investors, hinting at a 2025 recession. Tech stocks tanked—the Nasdaq plunged 4% to 17,468. 32, with Tesla cratering 15. 4%. Hopes of tax cuts fades as 25% steel tariffs looms on Wednesday. Are tariff chaos and Musk’s DOGE Austerity cuts denting confidence the real reason behind this crash? 🩸 Or were the insane valuations just simply too much? 😤I'm leaning on the latter; you had to look at companies like Wingstop $WING with a 130 P/E ratio at it's peak now back to more modest levels at 67 (still high). Source: US Stocks see worst day since 2022 RealisedGains Investing 12 March 2025 19:12 UTC+08:00 How China will compete with Trump's Tariffs? 🫡🐉How? By devaluing the Yuan to counter Trump’s tariffs and keep exports cheap!Trump’s plan: 10% tariffs on Chinese goods, 25% on Mexico & Canada to block China’s backdoors. China’s move to devalue the Yuan softens the tariffs’ impact, but Trump is betting big that taxes on Chinese Goods will force change. I believe the Trade War will develop into a Currency war with Mexico and Canada following suit to devalue against the dollar. What does this mean? Conventionally, a weaker Yuan would boost Chinese Equities. Momentum is still with China - We remain Bullish China 📈🇨🇳Source: WW3 = Trade War RealisedGains Investing 13 March 2025 17:53 UTC+08:00 Technical Analysis Astrology for Men?As a cancer, this market has literally been cancer 😷😂This latest Market Drop is the biggest drop since 2022 Guess what else hasn’t hit since 2022? NASA say tonight's Blood Moon (a rare total lunar eclipse) will actually appear reddish-orange tonight due to the Earth's atmosphere filtering sunlight 🩸🌙Yesterday’s CPI: inflation slowed to 2. 8% (below 2. 9% expected). Cleveland Fed now predicts a tiny 0. 01% M/M for March — despite inflation slowing, $TLT still tanked 📉 - I believe due to hedges unwinding, volatility crush, and too many puts opened lately. I don’t believe in Astrology but I think that this marks the end of high rates - with Trump pressuring the Fed, I believe FFR plummets, with $TLT going to $120-130 within a year. RealisedGains Investing 14 March 2025 18:08 UTC+08:00 Are we still in a Bullish Cycle? 🐂With great CPI/PPI numbers; Inflation clearly softening (note that PCE components still run hot). This makes me believe we’re going to see a series of rate cuts March onwards; benefiting Bonds & REITs 🏡Still in my $BTC short positions from 94k, but with invalidation zone at 89. 1k. I have closed my $QQQ short & $VIX longs. Still inside $TLT positions from 87. I believe we’ll see another $VIX crush Friday and relief rally into the weekend with overcrowded short/put trades here. In January, I predicted a sell-off from late Feb to mid-March, which happened ($BTC 99k > 82k > 94k > 75k). I see a potential 15-20% rally ahead—$SPY to 632-665, $BTC to 125-145k by June/July—culminating in an aggressive final blow-off top. RealisedGains Investing 15 March 2025 15:26 UTC+08:00 Going for Gold; Gold finally breaches $3000 🐳If you recall, I have been bullish $XAU since 1. 8k aiming for 3k by Q2 2025 a year ago 💛https://t. me/realisedgains/922https://t. me/realisedgains/1358Repeated call to buys at supports 1. 8k, 2. 1k, 2. 4k and 2. 6k (If you search $XAU in chat I’ve made over 100+ posts targeting this 3k psychological zone by Q2 2025)We are finally here. 🙏🏼Upside target now is $XAU 3. 1-3. 2k for 2025; modestly bullish; if we recall from past recessionary events, Gold should dip with equities in a recession after an initial flight-to-safety reaction (Gold does a local top right after equities as firms unwind Gold to offset other losing positions). It is also why I have shifted allocation from Gold > China > Bonds $TLT. Source: Building a Gold Asset Fund RealisedGains Investing 17 March 2025 09:46 UTC+08:00 Key Events This WeekMonday, March 17 2025:🟥 Retail Sales Data Release: 8:30 PM🟧 New York Fed Manufacturing Index: 8:30 PM Thursday, March 20 2025:⚠️ Federal Reserve Rate Decision: 2:00 AM⚠️ Fed Chair Jerome Powell's Press Conference: 2:30 AM 🟥 Jobless Claims Data Release: 8:30 PM 🟧 Existing Home Sales Data Release: 10:00 PM Additional Events:Monday-Thursday, March 17–21 2025:🟧 NVIDIA GPU Technology Conference (GTC)Wednesday March 19, 2025:🟧 CEO Jensen Huang's Keynote Address: 1:00 AM. Expected Earnings Report Dates:Thursday, March 20 2025:PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD)Micron Technology Inc. (MU)Nike Inc. (NKE)FedEx Corp. (FDX)Friday, March 21 2025:NIO Inc. (NIO) RealisedGains Investing 18 March 2025 19:53 UTC+08:00 Bitcoin Whale closes his 525M ShortWhale 🐳 with $525M in $BTC shorts from $84k, has finally closed his entire 40x+ leverage position, making nearly $9M IN PROFITS. Pretty poor Risk:Reward all things considered - how close he was to liquidation a few hours ago when price was $84. 7k and his liquidation was $85. 5kFor what it's worth I still see 68-73k $BTC support region being tapped! Still bullish on my positions in Gold, China & Bonds 🤫Source: Your size is not size. . . RealisedGains Investing 19 March 2025 23:35 UTC+08:00 3 Hours till the BIG FOMC decision Market expects 99% Probability of NO CUTS 📉✦ Let's review the data:→ CPI and PPI came in below expectations, big drop in inflation. → PCE Index and Real-Time Proxies still show inflation increasing→ Data lags about 45 days, Inflation is now 0. 56pp lower now. Some conflicting uncertain data here - However, here’s why I BELIEVE we’ll get rate cuts in JUNE 2025. If you recall the last few years, I have been precise with my higher for longer interest rates rhetoric despite others calling for earlier rate cuts. Why have I flipped my stance in Q2 2025I have ruled out the possibility of a second spike in Inflation & a subsequent rate hike - which I presumed last year, conditional on Biden continuing his irresponsible spending. With Trump 🦅, rate hikes are unlikely—raising them could tank the economy. His admin pushes for lower yields to save the bond market, but tariffs may spark a currency war, with others dumping US bonds to counter his policies. RealisedGains Investing 20 March 2025 04:06 UTC+08:00 FOMC Decision: 50 BPS Rate Cuts Projected for 2025!FOMC’s March 19, 2025 decision kept rates at 4. 25%-4. 5%, reflecting caution as inflation stays above 2%. Powell pointed to Trump’s tariffs as a factor in rising 🔥 inflation expectations, suggesting rate cuts might pause if costs rise. Yet despite this, The Fed still sees 50 bps of cuts in 2025, aiming for 3. 9%. As I said previously above^. The Fed will slow Treasury redemptions to $5B from April, hinting at QE-like moves. Risk assets are already reflecting this shift, $BTC $NQ $EQ $TLT moving upwards 📈I actually think Powell dislikes Trump?? Trump is systematically dismantling the need for the Federal Reserve, making his job useless. IMO, Trump’s austerity will hurt short-term but should strengthen the US economy in the long-run 🦅!Source: Filmed this on 1 Hour of Sleep Give Chance RealisedGains Investing 20 March 2025 11:32 UTC+08:00 Can Tesla Stock Go Even Lower? 🚙I'm looking to punt a $TSLA long from $180-$190. A lofty 110 PE ratio even after the 55% correction still doesn't sit right with me amidst so many other EV competitors (BYD $1211. HK, $NIO, $LI, etc). Yet, even in a short-term downtrend there are bounces! We're currently getting to oversold levels. Price is slowly moving the way I marked out on our Tiktok. Will give an update when price comes to this key levels!Source: Tesla 2025: Stock Price Prediction and Market Analysis RealisedGains Investing 20 March 2025 17:04 UTC+08:00 Are Bonds telling us we are entering a Recession?Is $TLT being stuck at the $80-90 telling us something? 🎣In my opinion, current economic data hints at a recession— with consumer confidence at 98. 3, jobless claims at 242K, GDP at 2. 3%. Earlier last month, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's pledge to contain yields on 10-year Treasury notes - getting the long and more sensitive end of the curve lower. These statements caused Yields to fall—10Y at 4. 308% (19/3/2025), down from 4. 51% last month—pushed by recession fears and easing term premia (-4. 9bp). Yet Inflation remains low & steady at 2. 6%, presenting a bullish case for $TLT to rise. 🔥As you guys know, I’m Bullish Bonds; With the trade war, slowing inflation and Bessent bent on I see more short-term currency devaluations > Lower Yields > Higher Bond Prices. However, in the article below, i’ll present some bear cases for bonds just for consideration. Source: Does the Bressert Cycle Analysis explain why Bonds are still not a buy? RealisedGains Investing 24 March 2025 14:57 UTC+08:00 Where I see markets heading 🫡My prediction is we're going to see Inflation drop but more people stay unemployed 💸. Leading to deflation & a recession in 25/26. This will likely spark a liquidity crisis , crashing S&P500, BTC at my resistance $SPY 632-665, $BTC 125-145k - temporarily pulling back gold/silver 🪙 For now I think we continue higher till June FOMC, and the lows are in. Central banks might then cut rates to 0, saving banks, but fueling stagflation further — high inflation, low growth; with bonds skyrocketing and gold/silver recovering to ATHs for a Commodities Supercycle thereafter as US goes into a multi-year trough. . . 📉Source: Stagflation fears are rising! RealisedGains Investing 26 March 2025 05:46 UTC+08:00 Where's Gold headed? ⭐️With U. S. and Russian delegates meeting separately now, markets tonight are de-escalating, allow equities to breathe, but causing gold to slip to $3,025 with reduce safe-haven demands. I expect 2 rate cuts come June 2025, with the lowered rates favoring non-yielding gold & bonds then. — I remain bullish $XAU gold till 3. 1-3. 2k for 2025. I believe we will see a gold supercycle as US enters mini stagflation cycle. Source: Still gold