{ "purpose": "Ranks India's FY2025-26 bilateral trade balance by partner country to identify where India's forex outflow is concentrated, then traces multi-year (not 6-month) policy history behind the five biggest deficit relationships.", "source": "Commerce Ministry Trade Intelligence & Analytics Portal (trade-analytics.commerce.gov.in), country-wise export and import panels, Financial Year 2025-26 selection", "coverage_note": "38 of ~217 trading partners -- the subset where both an export and import figure had already been captured in this repo's earlier TIA portal session work. Top 15 deficit and top 8 surplus countries are all covered.", "retrieved": "2026-07-18", "country_balances": [ { "code": "CN", "name": "China", "export": 19471.1, "import": 131633.4, "balance": -112162.29999999999 }, { "code": "RU", "name": "Russia", "export": 4493.5, "import": 55369.6, "balance": -50876.1 }, { "code": "AE", "name": "UAE", "export": 37359.1, "import": 63894.5, "balance": -26535.4 }, { "code": "CH", "name": "Switzerland", "export": 1213.4, "import": 24275.1, "balance": -23061.699999999997 }, { "code": "IQ", "name": "Iraq", "export": 2958.2, "import": 24558.5, "balance": -21600.3 }, { "code": "SA", "name": "Saudi Arabia", "export": 10281.1, "import": 30790.3, "balance": -20509.199999999997 }, { "code": "ID", "name": "Indonesia", "export": 4491.4, "import": 20292.3, "balance": -15800.9 }, { "code": "JP", "name": "Japan", "export": 6039.5, "import": 21436.9, "balance": -15397.400000000001 }, { "code": "KR", "name": "South Korea", "export": 6012.0, "import": 21354.7, "balance": -15342.7 }, { "code": "SG", "name": "Singapore", "export": 11863.7, "import": 24240.6, "balance": -12376.899999999998 }, { "code": "TH", "name": "Thailand", "export": 5058.6, "import": 16427.0, "balance": -11368.4 }, { "code": "QA", "name": "Qatar", "export": 1620.3, "import": 12292.6, "balance": -10672.300000000001 }, { "code": "DE", "name": "Germany", "export": 11526.0, "import": 19507.6, "balance": -7981.5999999999985 }, { "code": "MY", "name": "Malaysia", "export": 6825.6, "import": 14177.0, "balance": -7351.4 }, { "code": "TW", "name": "Taiwan", "export": 1948.8, "import": 8880.9, "balance": -6932.099999999999 }, { "code": "AU", "name": "Australia", "export": 7284.2, "import": 13811.4, "balance": -6527.2 }, { "code": "KW", "name": "Kuwait", "export": 1651.7, "import": 7917.4, "balance": -6265.7 }, { "code": "GH", "name": "Ghana", "export": 1292.1, "import": 6680.1, "balance": -5388.0 }, { "code": "VN", "name": "Vietnam", "export": 6665.9, "import": 11615.2, "balance": -4949.300000000001 }, { "code": "AR", "name": "Argentina", "export": 1013.1, "import": 4955.0, "balance": -3941.9 }, { "code": "OM", "name": "Oman", "export": 4021.5, "import": 7166.4, "balance": -3144.8999999999996 }, { "code": "NG", "name": "Nigeria", "export": 3132.3, "import": 5895.8, "balance": -2763.5 }, { "code": "FR", "name": "France", "export": 7102.5, "import": 8713.9, "balance": -1611.3999999999996 }, { "code": "BR", "name": "Brazil", "export": 7022.1, "import": 8050.6, "balance": -1028.5 }, { "code": "MZ", "name": "Mozambique", "export": 1496.2, "import": 2289.5, "balance": -793.3 }, { "code": "BE", "name": "Belgium", "export": 6598.6, "import": 6410.8, "balance": 187.80000000000018 }, { "code": "PH", "name": "Philippines", "export": 2332.3, "import": 1568.4, "balance": 763.9000000000001 }, { "code": "IT", "name": "Italy", "export": 7790.2, "import": 6674.1, "balance": 1116.0999999999995 }, { "code": "EG", "name": "Egypt", "export": 3932.1, "import": 2603.2, "balance": 1328.9 }, { "code": "CA", "name": "Canada", "export": 4671.1, "import": 3285.3, "balance": 1385.8000000000002 }, { "code": "PL", "name": "Poland", "export": 2796.3, "import": 1252.7, "balance": 1543.6000000000001 }, { "code": "GB", "name": "United Kingdom", "export": 13444.2, "import": 11682.4, "balance": 1761.800000000001 }, { "code": "TZ", "name": "Tanzania", "export": 5420.1, "import": 3602.6, "balance": 1817.5000000000005 }, { "code": "MX", "name": "Mexico", "export": 5727.1, "import": 2106.2, "balance": 3620.9000000000005 }, { "code": "ES", "name": "Spain", "export": 6961.2, "import": 2234.2, "balance": 4727.0 }, { "code": "BD", "name": "Bangladesh", "export": 10587.4, "import": 1780.3, "balance": 8807.1 }, { "code": "NL", "name": "Netherlands", "export": 17500.7, "import": 5786.3, "balance": 11714.400000000001 }, { "code": "US", "name": "United States", "export": 87316.0, "import": 53488.7, "balance": 33827.3 } ], "policy_history": { "china_electronics": { "pli_launched": "March 2020 (mobile manufacturing, pharma, medical devices)", "atmanirbhar_bharat_launched": "May 2020, Rs 20 lakh crore package", "pli_expanded_to_14_sectors": "August 2023, Rs 1.97 lakh crore outlay", "china_share_of_electronic_component_imports_pct": 62, "assessment": "Independent reporting six years into Atmanirbhar Bharat states it has not reduced structural import dependence; China remains India's largest single bilateral deficit." }, "russia_crude_oil": { "pre_2022_share_of_crude_imports_pct": 2.5, "fy2022_23_share_pct": 21.6, "fy2023_24_share_pct": 35.9, "fy2024_25_share_pct": 35.8, "discount_per_barrel_usd": "25-30 below Brent through much of 2022-23", "estimated_savings_first_year_usd_bn": 5, "payment_mechanism": "Indian refiners (IOCL, BPCL, HPCL) settle nearly all Russian oil purchases in UAE dirhams via Emirati traders", "note": "Market-driven reorientation, not a Cabinet-approved scheme -- the fastest-moving driver of India's country-deficit ranking." }, "uae_switzerland_gold_gems": { "policy": "Foreign Trade Policy Chapter 4: duty-free import of cut & polished diamonds (up to 5% of FOB export value) and gold/silver/platinum jewellery inputs, for manufacture of exportable products; reinforced by RoDTEP export-duty remission.", "note": "Deliberately open, not an import-substitution target -- the flows fund the re-export trade." }, "indonesia_malaysia_palm_oil": { "nmeo_op_launched": "August 2021, Rs 11,040 crore outlay (Rs 8,844cr central + Rs 2,196cr state share)", "nmeo_op_target": "11.2 lakh tonnes crude palm oil production by 2025-26, across 15 states, 21.75 lakh hectares potential area", "nmeo_oilseeds_launched": "2024, Rs 10,103 crore outlay through 2030-31", "current_import_dependence_pct": 57, "forex_impact_usd_bn_per_year": 20.56, "assessment": "More than 4 years of continuous, funded policy attention; import dependence has not meaningfully declined." }, "gulf_crude_iraq_saudi_qatar": { "note": "Traditional, steady crude/LNG suppliers; together with Russia, make energy imports the largest structural component of India's country-level deficit list." } }, "niryat_portal_note": { "url": "https://www.niryat.gov.in/india", "access_status": "Blocked -- both the Browser tool and a direct HTTPS/curl request failed at the TLS handshake stage, consistent with prior experience on other DGFT-family domains.", "reconstructed_features_from_public_sources": [ "World Map view, Commodity view, and Table view", "Color-coded (traffic-light style) tracking of each commodity/country pair against defined targets", "District-level geospatial drill-down for state export hubs", "Automated insights", "Real-time data across 30+ commodity groups and 200+ countries" ], "design_takeaway": "The target-vs-actual traffic-light framing is a good pattern this bulletin's timeline section could adopt in a future iteration; the diverging bar chart used here ranks magnitude but doesn't score each relationship against an explicit government target the way NIRYAT does." } }