{ "purpose": "Correlates WPI item-level series for diesel (HSD) and fertilisers (Urea, DAP) -- the domestic price points where imported mineral-fuel (HS27) and fertiliser (HS31) cost pressure actually lands -- against WPI and CPI headline/food inflation, to test the import-price-to-domestic-inflation transmission described in the cited literature.", "source": "MoSPI MCP connector: WPI dataset (base 2011-12), item-level HSD/Urea/Di-ammonium-phosphate plus headline; CPI dataset (base 2012), General/Food-and-Beverages/Oils-and-Fats sub-groups, All-India Combined", "method": "Annual April-anchor snapshot (the April index value of each calendar year) for WPI (Apr2012-Apr2026) and CPI (Apr2013-Apr2025), chosen to match this repo's existing FY/annual chart convention rather than a full monthly series.", "retrieved": "2026-07-18", "series": { "wpi_hsd_diesel": { "2012": 111.9, "2013": 114.6, "2014": 130.0, "2015": 83.3, "2016": 59.1, "2017": 81.5, "2018": 92.5, "2019": 95.5, "2020": 76.0, "2021": 101.0, "2022": 169.3, "2023": 171.7, "2024": 168.5, "2025": 160.0, "2026": 200.3 }, "wpi_urea": { "2012": 101.4, "2013": 102.9, "2014": 104.4, "2015": 109.1, "2016": 113.9, "2017": 111.3, "2018": 112.0, "2019": 111.0, "2020": 110.7, "2021": 109.6, "2022": 110.5, "2023": 118.4, "2024": 116.6, "2025": 116.2, "2026": 115.4 }, "wpi_dap": { "2012": 115.5, "2013": 136.4, "2014": 132.9, "2015": 137.7, "2016": 133.5, "2017": 122.5, "2018": 131.3, "2019": 145.2, "2020": 133.5, "2021": 144.9, "2022": 159.9, "2023": 159.4, "2024": 154.0, "2025": 152.0, "2026": 159.8 }, "wpi_headline": { "2012": 104.7, "2013": 108.6, "2014": 114.1, "2015": 110.2, "2016": 109.0, "2017": 113.2, "2018": 117.3, "2019": 121.1, "2020": 119.2, "2021": 132.0, "2022": 152.3, "2023": 151.1, "2024": 152.9, "2025": 154.2, "2026": 167.0 }, "cpi_headline": { "2013": 106.1, "2014": 115.1, "2015": 120.7, "2016": 127.3, "2017": 131.1, "2018": 137.1, "2019": 141.2, "2020": 151.4, "2021": 157.8, "2022": 170.1, "2023": 178.1, "2024": 186.7, "2025": 192.6 }, "cpi_food_and_beverages": { "2013": 107.7, "2014": 117.6, "2015": 124.0, "2016": 131.8, "2017": 133.5, "2018": 137.5, "2019": 139.4, "2020": 154.0, "2021": 158.0, "2022": 170.8, "2023": 177.9, "2024": 191.9, "2025": 196.0 }, "cpi_oils_and_fats": { "2013": 104.4, "2014": 107.3, "2015": 109.2, "2016": 114.8, "2017": 118.4, "2018": 121.0, "2019": 121.9, "2020": 135.1, "2021": 170.1, "2022": 199.5, "2023": 174.9, "2024": 158.4, "2025": 186.0 } }, "correlations_pearson_r_yoy_growth": { "hsd_vs_wpi_headline": 0.917, "urea_vs_wpi_headline": -0.418, "dap_vs_wpi_headline": 0.477, "wpi_headline_vs_cpi_headline": 0.251, "hsd_vs_cpi_headline": 0.114, "hsd_vs_cpi_food": -0.156, "dap_vs_cpi_food": -0.318, "urea_vs_cpi_food": 0.161, "dap_vs_cpi_oils": 0.287, "urea_vs_cpi_oils": -0.391, "hsd_vs_cpi_food_lag1": 0.086, "dap_vs_cpi_oils_lag1": -0.274, "urea_vs_cpi_oils_lag1": -0.52 }, "notable_monthly_prints_not_captured_by_april_anchor": { "cpi_oils_and_fats_yoy": { "2023-06": -18.17, "2025-08": 21.24, "note": "Full monthly CPI oils-and-fats year-on-year inflation swung from this trough to this peak -- the sharpest reversal of any major CPI sub-group in the 2012-2026 window -- consistent with near 1:1 global-to-domestic pass-through for edible oils per Mishra and Roy (2011-12)." } }, "cross_references_in_this_repo": { "hs27_mineral_fuels_import_growth_fy18_19_to_fy25_26_pct": 21.2, "hs31_fertilisers_import_growth_fy18_19_to_fy25_26_pct": 118.9, "hs15_edible_oils_import_growth_fy18_19_to_fy25_26_pct": 97.9, "source_file": "data/hsn_historical_trends_2018-19_to_2025-26.json" }, "cited_literature": [ { "author": "James D. Hamilton", "title": "Import Prices and Inflation", "venue": "International Journal of Central Banking, March 2012", "key_point": "Pass-through from import prices to domestic inflation is not a fixed number -- it depends on what caused the import price to change in the first place; raw historical correlation answers a conditional-forecasting question, not a causal one." }, { "author": "Rudrani Bhattacharya and Abhijit Sen Gupta", "title": "Food Inflation in India: Causes and Consequences", "venue": "NIPFP Working Paper 2015-151 (June 2015)", "key_point": "SVAR estimates: a 10% rise in fuel inflation raises food inflation ~1% within the same month (transitory); a 10% rise in agricultural-wage inflation raises food inflation 1.6% immediately, rising to 2.4% within 4 months (post-2008: up to 5.5%). Edible oil inflation shows near-1:1 pass-through from global edible-oil prices; cereals show almost none, insulated by trade/procurement policy." }, { "author": "Prachi Mishra and Devesh Roy", "title": "Explaining Inflation in India: The Role of Food Prices", "venue": "India Policy Forum, 2011-12, Vol. 8", "key_point": "Degree of global-to-domestic pass-through tracks tradability: edible oils (heavily imported) move almost one-for-one with world prices; rice, wheat, sugar (protected by export bans/procurement) barely move with them." }, { "author": "Dr. Ashique Elahi and Dr. Bijoy Kr. Nath", "title": "Inflationary Trends and Their Influence on India's Economic Stability", "venue": "Journal of Emerging Technologies and Innovative Research (JETIR), April 2025", "key_point": "Names global crude oil prices feeding into domestic fuel/diesel costs as 'a classic example of imported inflation in India'; cites RBI finding that inflation above 6% starts to drag on GDP growth." }, { "author": "Yogeshwaran A.", "title": "An Analysis of Indian Imports and Their Impact on GDP and the Economy", "venue": "MBA thesis, Indian Maritime University, 2025", "key_point": "Crude petroleum is 23.4% of India's total import bill by value (the single largest line item); fertiliser categories (mixed mineral/chemical, nitrogenous) add roughly another 2%." } ] }